Application of the maximal covering location problem to habitat reserve site selection: a review

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

The Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) is a classic model from the location science literature which has found wide application. One important application is to a fundamental problem in conservation biology, the Maximum Covering Species Problem (MCSP), which identifies land parcels to protect to maximize the number of species represented in the selected sites. We...

Associations among selective attention, memory bias, cognitive errors and symptoms of anxiety in youth.

PubMed

Watts, Sarah E; Weems, Carl F

2006-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the linkages among selective attention, memory bias, cognitive errors, and anxiety problems by testing a model of the interrelations among these cognitive variables and childhood anxiety disorder symptoms. A community sample of 81 youth (38 females and 43 males) aged 9-17 years and their parents completed measures of the child's anxiety disorder symptoms. Youth completed assessments measuring selective attention, memory bias, and cognitive errors. Results indicated that selective attention, memory bias, and cognitive errors were each correlated with childhood anxiety problems and provide support for a cognitive model of anxiety which posits that these three biases are associated with childhood anxiety problems. Only limited support for significant interrelations among selective attention, memory bias, and cognitive errors was found. Finally, results point towards an effective strategy for moving the assessment of selective attention to younger and community samples of youth.

Variable Step-Size Selection Methods for Implicit Integration Schemes

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-10-01

for ρk numerically. 23 4 Examples In this section we explore this variable step-size selection method for two problems, the Lotka - Volterra model and...the Kepler problem. 4.1 The Lotka - Volterra Model For this example we consider the Lotka - Volterra model of a simple predator- prey system from...problems. Consider this variation to the Lotka - Volterra problem:   u̇ v̇   =   u2v(v − 2) v2u(1− u)   = f(u, v); t ∈ [0, 50

Service-Oriented Node Scheduling Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks Using Markov Random Field Model

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hongju; Su, Zhihuang; Lloret, Jaime; Chen, Guolong

2014-01-01

Future wireless sensor networks are expected to provide various sensing services and energy efficiency is one of the most important criterions. The node scheduling strategy aims to increase network lifetime by selecting a set of sensor nodes to provide the required sensing services in a periodic manner. In this paper, we are concerned with the service-oriented node scheduling problem to provide multiple sensing services while maximizing the network lifetime. We firstly introduce how to model the data correlation for different services by using Markov Random Field (MRF) model. Secondly, we formulate the service-oriented node scheduling issue into three different problems, namely, the multi-service data denoising problem which aims at minimizing the noise level of sensed data, the representative node selection problem concerning with selecting a number of active nodes while determining the services they provide, and the multi-service node scheduling problem which aims at maximizing the network lifetime. Thirdly, we propose a Multi-service Data Denoising (MDD) algorithm, a novel multi-service Representative node Selection and service Determination (RSD) algorithm, and a novel MRF-based Multi-service Node Scheduling (MMNS) scheme to solve the above three problems respectively. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed scheme efficiently extends the network lifetime. PMID:25384005

Space-ecology set covering problem for modeling Daiyun Mountain Reserve, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chih-Wei; Liu, Jinfu; Huang, Jiahang; Zhang, Huiguang; Lan, Siren; Hong, Wei; Li, Wenzhou

2018-02-01

Site selection is an important issue in designing the nature reserve that has been studied over the years. However, a well-balanced relationship between preservation of biodiversity and site selection is still challenging. Unlike the existing methods, we consider three critical components, the spatial continuity, spatial compactness and ecological information to address the problem of designing the reserve. In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model of set covering problem called Space-ecology Set Covering Problem (SeSCP) for designing a reserve network. First, we generate the ecological information by forest resource investigation. Then, we split the landscape into elementary cells and calculate the ecological score of each cell. Next, we associate the ecological information with the spatial properties to select a set of cells to form a nature reserve for improving the ability of protecting the biodiversity. Two spatial constraints, continuity and compactability, are given in SeSCP. The continuity is to ensure that any selected site has to be connected with adjacent sites and the compactability is to minimize the perimeter of the selected sites. In computational experiments, we take Daiyun Mountain as a study area to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Fuzzy Random λ-Mean SAD Portfolio Selection Problem: An Ant Colony Optimization Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, Gour Sundar Mitra; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Mitra, Swapan Kumar

2010-10-01

To reach the investment goal, one has to select a combination of securities among different portfolios containing large number of securities. Only the past records of each security do not guarantee the future return. As there are many uncertain factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market and there are also some newer stock markets which do not have enough historical data, experts' expectation and experience must be combined with the past records to generate an effective portfolio selection model. In this paper the return of security is assumed to be Fuzzy Random Variable Set (FRVS), where returns are set of random numbers which are in turn fuzzy numbers. A new λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) portfolio selection model is developed. The subjective opinions of the investors to the rate of returns of each security are taken into consideration by introducing a pessimistic-optimistic parameter vector λ. λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) model is preferred as it follows absolute deviation of the rate of returns of a portfolio instead of the variance as the measure of the risk. As this model can be reduced to Linear Programming Problem (LPP) it can be solved much faster than quadratic programming problems. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is used for solving the portfolio selection problem. ACO is a paradigm for designing meta-heuristic algorithms for combinatorial optimization problem. Data from BSE is used for illustration.

Evaluation of new collision-pair selection models in DSMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhlaghi, Hassan; Roohi, Ehsan

2017-10-01

The current paper investigates new collision-pair selection procedures in a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Collision partner selection based on the random procedure from nearest neighbor particles and deterministic selection of nearest neighbor particles have already been introduced as schemes that provide accurate results in a wide range of problems. In the current research, new collision-pair selections based on the time spacing and direction of the relative movement of particles are introduced and evaluated. Comparisons between the new and existing algorithms are made considering appropriate test cases including fluctuations in homogeneous gas, 2D equilibrium flow, and Fourier flow problem. Distribution functions for number of particles and collisions in cell, velocity components, and collisional parameters (collision separation, time spacing, relative velocity, and the angle between relative movements of particles) are investigated and compared with existing analytical relations for each model. The capability of each model in the prediction of the heat flux in the Fourier problem at different cell numbers, numbers of particles, and time steps is examined. For new and existing collision-pair selection schemes, the effect of an alternative formula for the number of collision-pair selections and avoiding repetitive collisions are investigated via the prediction of the Fourier heat flux. The simulation results demonstrate the advantages and weaknesses of each model in different test cases.

Text Summarization Model based on Facility Location Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takamura, Hiroya; Okumura, Manabu

e propose a novel multi-document generic summarization model based on the budgeted median problem, which is a facility location problem. The summarization method based on our model is an extractive method, which selects sentences from the given document cluster and generates a summary. Each sentence in the document cluster will be assigned to one of the selected sentences, where the former sentece is supposed to be represented by the latter. Our method selects sentences to generate a summary that yields a good sentence assignment and hence covers the whole content of the document cluster. An advantage of this method is that it can incorporate asymmetric relations between sentences such as textual entailment. Through experiments, we showed that the proposed method yields good summaries on the dataset of DUC'04.

Cognitive Niches: An Ecological Model of Strategy Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marewski, Julian N.; Schooler, Lael J.

2011-01-01

How do people select among different strategies to accomplish a given task? Across disciplines, the strategy selection problem represents a major challenge. We propose a quantitative model that predicts how selection emerges through the interplay among strategies, cognitive capacities, and the environment. This interplay carves out for each…

A multi-fidelity analysis selection method using a constrained discrete optimization formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stults, Ian C.

The purpose of this research is to develop a method for selecting the fidelity of contributing analyses in computer simulations. Model uncertainty is a significant component of result validity, yet it is neglected in most conceptual design studies. When it is considered, it is done so in only a limited fashion, and therefore brings the validity of selections made based on these results into question. Neglecting model uncertainty can potentially cause costly redesigns of concepts later in the design process or can even cause program cancellation. Rather than neglecting it, if one were to instead not only realize the model uncertainty in tools being used but also use this information to select the tools for a contributing analysis, studies could be conducted more efficiently and trust in results could be quantified. Methods for performing this are generally not rigorous or traceable, and in many cases the improvement and additional time spent performing enhanced calculations are washed out by less accurate calculations performed downstream. The intent of this research is to resolve this issue by providing a method which will minimize the amount of time spent conducting computer simulations while meeting accuracy and concept resolution requirements for results. In many conceptual design programs, only limited data is available for quantifying model uncertainty. Because of this data sparsity, traditional probabilistic means for quantifying uncertainty should be reconsidered. This research proposes to instead quantify model uncertainty using an evidence theory formulation (also referred to as Dempster-Shafer theory) in lieu of the traditional probabilistic approach. Specific weaknesses in using evidence theory for quantifying model uncertainty are identified and addressed for the purposes of the Fidelity Selection Problem. A series of experiments was conducted to address these weaknesses using n-dimensional optimization test functions. These experiments found that model uncertainty present in analyses with 4 or fewer input variables could be effectively quantified using a strategic distribution creation method; if more than 4 input variables exist, a Frontier Finding Particle Swarm Optimization should instead be used. Once model uncertainty in contributing analysis code choices has been quantified, a selection method is required to determine which of these choices should be used in simulations. Because much of the selection done for engineering problems is driven by the physics of the problem, these are poor candidate problems for testing the true fitness of a candidate selection method. Specifically moderate and high dimensional problems' variability can often be reduced to only a few dimensions and scalability often cannot be easily addressed. For these reasons a simple academic function was created for the uncertainty quantification, and a canonical form of the Fidelity Selection Problem (FSP) was created. Fifteen best- and worst-case scenarios were identified in an effort to challenge the candidate selection methods both with respect to the characteristics of the tradeoff between time cost and model uncertainty and with respect to the stringency of the constraints and problem dimensionality. The results from this experiment show that a Genetic Algorithm (GA) was able to consistently find the correct answer, but under certain circumstances, a discrete form of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was able to find the correct answer more quickly. To better illustrate how the uncertainty quantification and discrete optimization might be conducted for a "real world" problem, an illustrative example was conducted using gas turbine engines.

Congruence analysis of geodetic networks - hypothesis tests versus model selection by information criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, Rüdiger; Lösler, Michael

2017-12-01

Geodetic deformation analysis can be interpreted as a model selection problem. The null model indicates that no deformation has occurred. It is opposed to a number of alternative models, which stipulate different deformation patterns. A common way to select the right model is the usage of a statistical hypothesis test. However, since we have to test a series of deformation patterns, this must be a multiple test. As an alternative solution for the test problem, we propose the p-value approach. Another approach arises from information theory. Here, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or some alternative is used to select an appropriate model for a given set of observations. Both approaches are discussed and applied to two test scenarios: A synthetic levelling network and the Delft test data set. It is demonstrated that they work but behave differently, sometimes even producing different results. Hypothesis tests are well-established in geodesy, but may suffer from an unfavourable choice of the decision error rates. The multiple test also suffers from statistical dependencies between the test statistics, which are neglected. Both problems are overcome by applying information criterions like AIC.

STAGS Example Problems Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Rankin, Charles C.

2006-01-01

This document summarizes the STructural Analysis of General Shells (STAGS) development effort, STAGS performance for selected demonstration problems, and STAGS application problems illustrating selected advanced features available in the STAGS Version 5.0. Each problem is discussed including selected background information and reference solutions when available. The modeling and solution approach for each problem is described and illustrated. Numerical results are presented and compared with reference solutions, test data, and/or results obtained from mesh refinement studies. These solutions provide an indication of the overall capabilities of the STAGS nonlinear finite element analysis tool and provide users with representative cases, including input files, to explore these capabilities that may then be tailored to other applications.

The admissible portfolio selection problem with transaction costs and an improved PSO algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Zhang, Wei-Guo

2010-05-01

In this paper, we discuss the portfolio selection problem with transaction costs under the assumption that there exist admissible errors on expected returns and risks of assets. We propose a new admissible efficient portfolio selection model and design an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm because traditional optimization algorithms fail to work efficiently for our proposed problem. Finally, we offer a numerical example to illustrate the proposed effective approaches and compare the admissible portfolio efficient frontiers under different constraints.

Model selection with multiple regression on distance matrices leads to incorrect inferences.

PubMed

Franckowiak, Ryan P; Panasci, Michael; Jarvis, Karl J; Acuña-Rodriguez, Ian S; Landguth, Erin L; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Wagner, Helene H

2017-01-01

In landscape genetics, model selection procedures based on Information Theoretic and Bayesian principles have been used with multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM) to test the relationship between multiple vectors of pairwise genetic, geographic, and environmental distance. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we examined the ability of model selection criteria based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC), its small-sample correction (AICc), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to reliably rank candidate models when applied with MRM while varying the sample size. The results showed a serious problem: all three criteria exhibit a systematic bias toward selecting unnecessarily complex models containing spurious random variables and erroneously suggest a high level of support for the incorrectly ranked best model. These problems effectively increased with increasing sample size. The failure of AIC, AICc, and BIC was likely driven by the inflated sample size and different sum-of-squares partitioned by MRM, and the resulting effect on delta values. Based on these findings, we strongly discourage the continued application of AIC, AICc, and BIC for model selection with MRM.

A Gambler's Model of Natural Selection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolan, Michael J.; Ostrovsky, David S.

1996-01-01

Presents an activity that highlights the mechanism and power of natural selection. Allows students to think in terms of modeling a biological process and instills an appreciation for a mathematical approach to biological problems. (JRH)

Robust optimization model and algorithm for railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment.

PubMed

Liu, Xing-Cai; He, Shi-Wei; Song, Rui; Sun, Yang; Li, Hao-Dong

2014-01-01

Railway freight center location problem is an important issue in railway freight transport programming. This paper focuses on the railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment. Seeing that the expected value model ignores the negative influence of disadvantageous scenarios, a robust optimization model was proposed. The robust optimization model takes expected cost and deviation value of the scenarios as the objective. A cloud adaptive clonal selection algorithm (C-ACSA) was presented. It combines adaptive clonal selection algorithm with Cloud Model which can improve the convergence rate. Design of the code and progress of the algorithm were proposed. Result of the example demonstrates the model and algorithm are effective. Compared with the expected value cases, the amount of disadvantageous scenarios in robust model reduces from 163 to 21, which prove the result of robust model is more reliable.

A general procedure to generate models for urban environmental-noise pollution using feature selection and machine learning methods.

PubMed

Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P

2015-02-01

The prediction of environmental noise in urban environments requires the solution of a complex and non-linear problem, since there are complex relationships among the multitude of variables involved in the characterization and modelling of environmental noise and environmental-noise magnitudes. Moreover, the inclusion of the great spatial heterogeneity characteristic of urban environments seems to be essential in order to achieve an accurate environmental-noise prediction in cities. This problem is addressed in this paper, where a procedure based on feature-selection techniques and machine-learning regression methods is proposed and applied to this environmental problem. Three machine-learning regression methods, which are considered very robust in solving non-linear problems, are used to estimate the energy-equivalent sound-pressure level descriptor (LAeq). These three methods are: (i) multilayer perceptron (MLP), (ii) sequential minimal optimisation (SMO), and (iii) Gaussian processes for regression (GPR). In addition, because of the high number of input variables involved in environmental-noise modelling and estimation in urban environments, which make LAeq prediction models quite complex and costly in terms of time and resources for application to real situations, three different techniques are used to approach feature selection or data reduction. The feature-selection techniques used are: (i) correlation-based feature-subset selection (CFS), (ii) wrapper for feature-subset selection (WFS), and the data reduction technique is principal-component analysis (PCA). The subsequent analysis leads to a proposal of different schemes, depending on the needs regarding data collection and accuracy. The use of WFS as the feature-selection technique with the implementation of SMO or GPR as regression algorithm provides the best LAeq estimation (R(2)=0.94 and mean absolute error (MAE)=1.14-1.16 dB(A)). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Second-order polynomial model to solve the least-cost lumber grade mix problem

Treesearch

Urs Buehlmann; Xiaoqiu Zuo; R. Edward Thomas

2010-01-01

Material costs when cutting solid wood parts from hardwood lumber for secondary wood products manufacturing account for 20 to 50 percent of final product cost. These costs can be minimized by proper selection of the lumber quality used. The lumber quality selection problem is referred to as the least-cost lumber grade mix problem in the industry. The objective of this...

Method for determining gene knockouts

DOEpatents

Maranas, Costas D [Port Matilda, PA; Burgard, Anthony R [State College, PA; Pharkya, Priti [State College, PA

2011-09-27

A method for determining candidates for gene deletions and additions using a model of a metabolic network associated with an organism, the model includes a plurality of metabolic reactions defining metabolite relationships, the method includes selecting a bioengineering objective for the organism, selecting at least one cellular objective, forming an optimization problem that couples the at least one cellular objective with the bioengineering objective, and solving the optimization problem to yield at least one candidate.

Method for determining gene knockouts

DOEpatents

Maranas, Costa D; Burgard, Anthony R; Pharkya, Priti

2013-06-04

A method for determining candidates for gene deletions and additions using a model of a metabolic network associated with an organism, the model includes a plurality of metabolic reactions defining metabolite relationships, the method includes selecting a bioengineering objective for the organism, selecting at least one cellular objective, forming an optimization problem that couples the at least one cellular objective with the bioengineering objective, and solving the optimization problem to yield at least one candidate.

Dynamic Educational e-Content Selection Using Multiple Criteria in Web-Based Personalized Learning Environments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manouselis, Nikos; Sampson, Demetrios

This paper focuses on the way a multi-criteria decision making methodology is applied in the case of agent-based selection of offered learning objects. The problem of selection is modeled as a decision making one, with the decision variables being the learner model and the learning objects' educational description. In this way, selection of…

Development of an Environment for Software Reliability Model Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

now is directed to other related problems such as tools for model selection, multiversion programming, and software fault tolerance modeling... multiversion programming, 7. Hlardware can be repaired by spare modules, which is not. the case for software, 2-6 N. Preventive maintenance is very important

A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection in Hierarchical Mixtures-of-Experts Architectures.

PubMed

Tanner, Martin A.; Peng, Fengchun; Jacobs, Robert A.

1997-03-01

There does not exist a statistical model that shows good performance on all tasks. Consequently, the model selection problem is unavoidable; investigators must decide which model is best at summarizing the data for each task of interest. This article presents an approach to the model selection problem in hierarchical mixtures-of-experts architectures. These architectures combine aspects of generalized linear models with those of finite mixture models in order to perform tasks via a recursive "divide-and-conquer" strategy. Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is used to estimate the distribution of the architectures' parameters. One part of our approach to model selection attempts to estimate the worth of each component of an architecture so that relatively unused components can be pruned from the architecture's structure. A second part of this approach uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure in order to differentiate inputs that carry useful information from nuisance inputs. Simulation results suggest that the approach presented here adheres to the dictum of Occam's razor; simple architectures that are adequate for summarizing the data are favored over more complex structures. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Learning to Select Supplier Portfolios for Service Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rui; Li, Jingfei; Wu, Shaoyu; Meng, Dabin

2016-01-01

The research on service supply chain has attracted more and more focus from both academia and industrial community. In a service supply chain, the selection of supplier portfolio is an important and difficult problem due to the fact that a supplier portfolio may include multiple suppliers from a variety of fields. To address this problem, we propose a novel supplier portfolio selection method based on a well known machine learning approach, i.e., Ranking Neural Network (RankNet). In the proposed method, we regard the problem of supplier portfolio selection as a ranking problem, which integrates a large scale of decision making features into a ranking neural network. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted, which demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed supplier portfolio selection model can be applied in a real corporation easily in the future. PMID:27195756

Effect of a Starting Model on the Solution of a Travel Time Seismic Tomography Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanovskaya, T. B.; Medvedev, S. V.; Gobarenko, V. S.

2018-03-01

In the problems of three-dimensional (3D) travel time seismic tomography where the data are travel times of diving waves and the starting model is a system of plane layers where the velocity is a function of depth alone, the solution turns out to strongly depend on the selection of the starting model. This is due to the fact that in the different starting models, the rays between the same points can intersect different layers, which makes the tomography problem fundamentally nonlinear. This effect is demonstrated by the model example. Based on the same example, it is shown how the starting model should be selected to ensure a solution close to the true velocity distribution. The starting model (the average dependence of the seismic velocity on depth) should be determined by the method of successive iterations at each step of which the horizontal velocity variations in the layers are determined by solving the two-dimensional tomography problem. An example illustrating the application of this technique to the P-wave travel time data in the region of the Black Sea basin is presented.

Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

Treesearch

Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

2011-01-01

Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

An Analysis of Kindergarten and First Grade Children's Addition and Subtraction Problem Solving Modeling and Accuracy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shores, Jay H.; Underhill, Robert G.

A study was undertaken of the effects of formal education and conservation of numerousness on addition and subtraction problem types. Thirty-six kindergarten and 36 first-grade subjects randomly selected from one area of a school district were administered measures of conservation, problem-solving success, and modeling ability. Following factor…

Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

2016-03-01

The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

2009-11-01

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

Privacy-Preserving Evaluation of Generalization Error and Its Application to Model and Attribute Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakuma, Jun; Wright, Rebecca N.

Privacy-preserving classification is the task of learning or training a classifier on the union of privately distributed datasets without sharing the datasets. The emphasis of existing studies in privacy-preserving classification has primarily been put on the design of privacy-preserving versions of particular data mining algorithms, However, in classification problems, preprocessing and postprocessing— such as model selection or attribute selection—play a prominent role in achieving higher classification accuracy. In this paper, we show generalization error of classifiers in privacy-preserving classification can be securely evaluated without sharing prediction results. Our main technical contribution is a new generalized Hamming distance protocol that is universally applicable to preprocessing and postprocessing of various privacy-preserving classification problems, such as model selection in support vector machine and attribute selection in naive Bayes classification.

A Selective Review of Group Selection in High-Dimensional Models

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian; Breheny, Patrick; Ma, Shuangge

2013-01-01

Grouping structures arise naturally in many statistical modeling problems. Several methods have been proposed for variable selection that respect grouping structure in variables. Examples include the group LASSO and several concave group selection methods. In this article, we give a selective review of group selection concerning methodological developments, theoretical properties and computational algorithms. We pay particular attention to group selection methods involving concave penalties. We address both group selection and bi-level selection methods. We describe several applications of these methods in nonparametric additive models, semiparametric regression, seemingly unrelated regressions, genomic data analysis and genome wide association studies. We also highlight some issues that require further study. PMID:24174707

Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

2017-12-01

The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

Analysis of creative mathematic thinking ability in problem based learning model based on self-regulation learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munahefi, D. N.; Waluya, S. B.; Rochmad

2018-03-01

The purpose of this research identified the effectiveness of Problem Based Learning (PBL) models based on Self Regulation Leaning (SRL) on the ability of mathematical creative thinking and analyzed the ability of mathematical creative thinking of high school students in solving mathematical problems. The population of this study was students of grade X SMA N 3 Klaten. The research method used in this research was sequential explanatory. Quantitative stages with simple random sampling technique, where two classes were selected randomly as experimental class was taught with the PBL model based on SRL and control class was taught with expository model. The selection of samples at the qualitative stage was non-probability sampling technique in which each selected 3 students were high, medium, and low academic levels. PBL model with SRL approach effectived to students’ mathematical creative thinking ability. The ability of mathematical creative thinking of low academic level students with PBL model approach of SRL were achieving the aspect of fluency and flexibility. Students of academic level were achieving fluency and flexibility aspects well. But the originality of students at the academic level was not yet well structured. Students of high academic level could reach the aspect of originality.

Proposing integrated Shannon's entropy-inverse data envelopment analysis methods for resource allocation problem under a fuzzy environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çakır, Süleyman

2017-10-01

In this study, a two-phase methodology for resource allocation problems under a fuzzy environment is proposed. In the first phase, the imprecise Shannon's entropy method and the acceptability index are suggested, for the first time in the literature, to select input and output variables to be used in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) application. In the second step, an interval inverse DEA model is executed for resource allocation in a short run. In an effort to exemplify the practicality of the proposed fuzzy model, a real case application has been conducted involving 16 cement firms listed in Borsa Istanbul. The results of the case application indicated that the proposed hybrid model is a viable procedure to handle input-output selection and resource allocation problems under fuzzy conditions. The presented methodology can also lend itself to different applications such as multi-criteria decision-making problems.

FBST for Cointegration Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz, M.; Pereira, C. A. B.; Stern, J. M.

2008-11-01

In order to estimate causal relations, the time series econometrics has to be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule [21]. To solve the problem, one can work with differenced series or use multivariate models like VAR or VEC models. In this case, the analysed series are going to present a long run relation i.e. a cointegration relation. Even though the Bayesian literature about inference on VAR/VEC models is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. [2] highlight that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results." This paper presents the Full Bayesian Significance Test applied to cointegration rank selection tests in multivariate (VAR/VEC) time series models and shows how to implement it using available in the literature and simulated data sets. A standard non-informative prior is assumed.

Optimal Strategy for Integrated Dynamic Inventory Control and Supplier Selection in Unknown Environment via Stochastic Dynamic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Solikhin

2016-06-01

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in stochastic dynamic optimization form to determine the optimal strategy for an integrated single product inventory control problem and supplier selection problem where the demand and purchasing cost parameters are random. For each time period, by using the proposed model, we decide the optimal supplier and calculate the optimal product volume purchased from the optimal supplier so that the inventory level will be located at some point as close as possible to the reference point with minimal cost. We use stochastic dynamic programming to solve this problem and give several numerical experiments to evaluate the model. From the results, for each time period, the proposed model was generated the optimal supplier and the inventory level was tracked the reference point well.

Approximation, abstraction and decomposition in search and optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellman, Thomas

1992-01-01

In this paper, I discuss four different areas of my research. One portion of my research has focused on automatic synthesis of search control heuristics for constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). I have developed techniques for automatically synthesizing two types of heuristics for CSPs: Filtering functions are used to remove portions of a search space from consideration. Another portion of my research is focused on automatic synthesis of hierarchic algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). I have developed a technique for constructing hierarchic problem solvers based on numeric interval algebra. Another portion of my research is focused on automatic decomposition of design optimization problems. We are using the design of racing yacht hulls as a testbed domain for this research. Decomposition is especially important in the design of complex physical shapes such as yacht hulls. Another portion of my research is focused on intelligent model selection in design optimization. The model selection problem results from the difficulty of using exact models to analyze the performance of candidate designs.

An analysis of the least-squares problem for the DSN systematic pointing error model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, L. S.

1991-01-01

A systematic pointing error model is used to calibrate antennas in the Deep Space Network. The least squares problem is described and analyzed along with the solution methods used to determine the model's parameters. Specifically studied are the rank degeneracy problems resulting from beam pointing error measurement sets that incorporate inadequate sky coverage. A least squares parameter subset selection method is described and its applicability to the systematic error modeling process is demonstrated on Voyager 2 measurement distribution.

Genetic algorithms and their use in Geophysical Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Paul B.

1999-04-01

Genetic algorithms (GAs), global optimization methods that mimic Darwinian evolution are well suited to the nonlinear inverse problems of geophysics. A standard genetic algorithm selects the best or ''fittest'' models from a ''population'' and then applies operators such as crossover and mutation in order to combine the most successful characteristics of each model and produce fitter models. More sophisticated operators have been developed, but the standard GA usually provides a robust and efficient search. Although the choice of parameter settings such as crossover and mutation rate may depend largely on the type of problem being solved, numerous results show thatmore » certain parameter settings produce optimal performance for a wide range of problems and difficulties. In particular, a low (about half of the inverse of the population size) mutation rate is crucial for optimal results, but the choice of crossover method and rate do not seem to affect performance appreciably. Optimal efficiency is usually achieved with smaller (< 50) populations. Lastly, tournament selection appears to be the best choice of selection methods due to its simplicity and its autoscaling properties. However, if a proportional selection method is used such as roulette wheel selection, fitness scaling is a necessity, and a high scaling factor (> 2.0) should be used for the best performance. Three case studies are presented in which genetic algorithms are used to invert for crustal parameters. The first is an inversion for basement depth at Yucca mountain using gravity data, the second an inversion for velocity structure in the crust of the south island of New Zealand using receiver functions derived from teleseismic events, and the third is a similar receiver function inversion for crustal velocities beneath the Mendocino Triple Junction region of Northern California. The inversions demonstrate that genetic algorithms are effective in solving problems with reasonably large numbers of free parameters and with computationally expensive objective function calculations. More sophisticated techniques are presented for special problems. Niching and island model algorithms are introduced as methods to find multiple, distinct solutions to the nonunique problems that are typically seen in geophysics. Finally, hybrid algorithms are investigated as a way to improve the efficiency of the standard genetic algorithm.« less

Genetic algorithms and their use in geophysical problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Paul Bradley

Genetic algorithms (GAs), global optimization methods that mimic Darwinian evolution are well suited to the nonlinear inverse problems of geophysics. A standard genetic algorithm selects the best or "fittest" models from a "population" and then applies operators such as crossover and mutation in order to combine the most successful characteristics of each model and produce fitter models. More sophisticated operators have been developed, but the standard GA usually provides a robust and efficient search. Although the choice of parameter settings such as crossover and mutation rate may depend largely on the type of problem being solved, numerous results show that certain parameter settings produce optimal performance for a wide range of problems and difficulties. In particular, a low (about half of the inverse of the population size) mutation rate is crucial for optimal results, but the choice of crossover method and rate do not seem to affect performance appreciably. Also, optimal efficiency is usually achieved with smaller (<50) populations. Lastly, tournament selection appears to be the best choice of selection methods due to its simplicity and its autoscaling properties. However, if a proportional selection method is used such as roulette wheel selection, fitness scaling is a necessity, and a high scaling factor (>2.0) should be used for the best performance. Three case studies are presented in which genetic algorithms are used to invert for crustal parameters. The first is an inversion for basement depth at Yucca mountain using gravity data, the second an inversion for velocity structure in the crust of the south island of New Zealand using receiver functions derived from teleseismic events, and the third is a similar receiver function inversion for crustal velocities beneath the Mendocino Triple Junction region of Northern California. The inversions demonstrate that genetic algorithms are effective in solving problems with reasonably large numbers of free parameters and with computationally expensive objective function calculations. More sophisticated techniques are presented for special problems. Niching and island model algorithms are introduced as methods to find multiple, distinct solutions to the nonunique problems that are typically seen in geophysics. Finally, hybrid algorithms are investigated as a way to improve the efficiency of the standard genetic algorithm.

Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David; Corasaniti, Pier Stefano; Liddle, Andrew R.; Kunz, Martin

2006-07-01

A key science goal of upcoming dark energy surveys is to seek time-evolution of the dark energy. This problem is one of model selection, where the aim is to differentiate between cosmological models with different numbers of parameters. However, the power of these surveys is traditionally assessed by estimating their ability to constrain parameters, which is a different statistical problem. In this paper, we use Bayesian model selection techniques, specifically forecasting of the Bayes factors, to compare the abilities of different proposed surveys in discovering dark energy evolution. We consider six experiments - supernova luminosity measurements by the Supernova Legacy Survey, SNAP, JEDI and ALPACA, and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements by WFMOS and JEDI - and use Bayes factor plots to compare their statistical constraining power. The concept of Bayes factor forecasting has much broader applicability than dark energy surveys.

Low-Complexity User Selection for Rate Maximization in MIMO Broadcast Channels with Downlink Beamforming

PubMed Central

Silva, Adão; Gameiro, Atílio

2014-01-01

We present in this work a low-complexity algorithm to solve the sum rate maximization problem in multiuser MIMO broadcast channels with downlink beamforming. Our approach decouples the user selection problem from the resource allocation problem and its main goal is to create a set of quasiorthogonal users. The proposed algorithm exploits physical metrics of the wireless channels that can be easily computed in such a way that a null space projection power can be approximated efficiently. Based on the derived metrics we present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the user selection process which renders the user selection problem into an integer linear program. Numerical results show that our approach is highly efficient to form groups of quasiorthogonal users when compared to previously proposed algorithms in the literature. Our user selection algorithm achieves a large portion of the optimum user selection sum rate (90%) for a moderate number of active users. PMID:24574928

IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.

2012-11-01

Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.

An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra

2016-04-01

Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.

A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

PubMed

Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

2004-06-15

For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence maximization based on partial network structure information: A comparative analysis on seed selection heuristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkol, Şirag; Yücel, Gönenç

In this study, the problem of seed selection is investigated. This problem is mainly treated as an optimization problem, which is proved to be NP-hard. There are several heuristic approaches in the literature which mostly use algorithmic heuristics. These approaches mainly focus on the trade-off between computational complexity and accuracy. Although the accuracy of algorithmic heuristics are high, they also have high computational complexity. Furthermore, in the literature, it is generally assumed that complete information on the structure and features of a network is available, which is not the case in most of the times. For the study, a simulation model is constructed, which is capable of creating networks, performing seed selection heuristics, and simulating diffusion models. Novel metric-based seed selection heuristics that rely only on partial information are proposed and tested using the simulation model. These heuristics use local information available from nodes in the synthetically created networks. The performances of heuristics are comparatively analyzed on three different network types. The results clearly show that the performance of a heuristic depends on the structure of a network. A heuristic to be used should be selected after investigating the properties of the network at hand. More importantly, the approach of partial information provided promising results. In certain cases, selection heuristics that rely only on partial network information perform very close to similar heuristics that require complete network data.

A solution to the static frame validation challenge problem using Bayesian model selection

DOE PAGES

Grigoriu, M. D.; Field, R. V.

2007-12-23

Within this paper, we provide a solution to the static frame validation challenge problem (see this issue) in a manner that is consistent with the guidelines provided by the Validation Challenge Workshop tasking document. The static frame problem is constructed such that variability in material properties is known to be the only source of uncertainty in the system description, but there is ignorance on the type of model that best describes this variability. Hence both types of uncertainty, aleatoric and epistemic, are present and must be addressed. Our approach is to consider a collection of competing probabilistic models for themore » material properties, and calibrate these models to the information provided; models of different levels of complexity and numerical efficiency are included in the analysis. A Bayesian formulation is used to select the optimal model from the collection, which is then used for the regulatory assessment. Lastly, bayesian credible intervals are used to provide a measure of confidence to our regulatory assessment.« less

Aspects of the Cognitive Model of Physics Problem Solving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brekke, Stewart E.

Various aspects of the cognitive model of physics problem solving are discussed in detail including relevant cues, encoding, memory, and input stimuli. The learning process involved in the recognition of familiar and non-familiar sensory stimuli is highlighted. Its four components include selection, acquisition, construction, and integration. The…

Controlling for selection effects in the relationship between child behavior problems and exposure to intimate partner violence.

PubMed

Emery, Clifton R

2011-05-01

This article used the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) data to examine the relationship between exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child behavior problems (externalizing and internalizing), truancy, grade repetition, smoking, drinking, and use of marijuana. Longitudinal data analysis was conducted on 1,816 primary caregivers and their children. Fixed-effects regression models were employed to address concerns with selection bias. IPV was associated with significantly greater internalizing behavior, externalizing behavior, and truancy. Findings from age interaction models suggested that the relationship between IPV and child behavior problems may attenuate as the age of the child at time of exposure increases.

Expected value based fuzzy programming approach to solve integrated supplier selection and inventory control problem with fuzzy demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Sunarsih; Kartono

2018-01-01

In this paper, a mathematical model in quadratic programming with fuzzy parameter is proposed to determine the optimal strategy for integrated inventory control and supplier selection problem with fuzzy demand. To solve the corresponding optimization problem, we use the expected value based fuzzy programming. Numerical examples are performed to evaluate the model. From the results, the optimal amount of each product that have to be purchased from each supplier for each time period and the optimal amount of each product that have to be stored in the inventory for each time period were determined with minimum total cost and the inventory level was sufficiently closed to the reference level.

Training Self-Regulated Learning Skills with Video Modeling Examples: Do Task-Selection Skills Transfer?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raaijmakers, Steven F.; Baars, Martine; Schaap, Lydia; Paas, Fred; van Merriënboer, Jeroen; van Gog, Tamara

2018-01-01

Self-assessment and task-selection skills are crucial in self-regulated learning situations in which students can choose their own tasks. Prior research suggested that training with video modeling examples, in which another person (the model) demonstrates and explains the cyclical process of problem-solving task performance, self-assessment, and…

Behavior Problems in Relation to Sustained Selective Attention Skills of Moderately Preterm Children.

PubMed

Bul, Kim C M; van Baar, Anneloes L

2012-04-01

Attention skills may form an important developmental mechanism. A mediation model was examined in which behavioral problems of moderately preterm and term children at school age are explained by attention performance. Parents and teachers completed behavioral assessments of 348 moderately preterm children and 182 term children at 8 years of age. Children were administered a test of sustained selective attention. Preterm birth was associated with more behavioral and attention difficulties. Gestational age, prenatal maternal smoking, and gender were associated with mothers', fathers', and teachers' reports of children's problem behavior. Sustained selective attention partially mediated the relationship between birth status and problem behavior. Development of attention skills should be an important focus for future research in moderately preterm children.

Hybrid Model Based on Genetic Algorithms and SVM Applied to Variable Selection within Fruit Juice Classification

PubMed Central

Fernandez-Lozano, C.; Canto, C.; Gestal, M.; Andrade-Garda, J. M.; Rabuñal, J. R.; Dorado, J.; Pazos, A.

2013-01-01

Given the background of the use of Neural Networks in problems of apple juice classification, this paper aim at implementing a newly developed method in the field of machine learning: the Support Vector Machines (SVM). Therefore, a hybrid model that combines genetic algorithms and support vector machines is suggested in such a way that, when using SVM as a fitness function of the Genetic Algorithm (GA), the most representative variables for a specific classification problem can be selected. PMID:24453933

A class of stochastic optimization problems with one quadratic & several linear objective functions and extended portfolio selection model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Li, Jun

2002-09-01

In this paper a class of stochastic multiple-objective programming problems with one quadratic, several linear objective functions and linear constraints has been introduced. The former model is transformed into a deterministic multiple-objective nonlinear programming model by means of the introduction of random variables' expectation. The reference direction approach is used to deal with linear objectives and results in a linear parametric optimization formula with a single linear objective function. This objective function is combined with the quadratic function using the weighted sums. The quadratic problem is transformed into a linear (parametric) complementary problem, the basic formula for the proposed approach. The sufficient and necessary conditions for (properly, weakly) efficient solutions and some construction characteristics of (weakly) efficient solution sets are obtained. An interactive algorithm is proposed based on reference direction and weighted sums. Varying the parameter vector on the right-hand side of the model, the DM can freely search the efficient frontier with the model. An extended portfolio selection model is formed when liquidity is considered as another objective to be optimized besides expectation and risk. The interactive approach is illustrated with a practical example.

Reduced-Size Integer Linear Programming Models for String Selection Problems: Application to the Farthest String Problem.

PubMed

Zörnig, Peter

2015-08-01

We present integer programming models for some variants of the farthest string problem. The number of variables and constraints is substantially less than that of the integer linear programming models known in the literature. Moreover, the solution of the linear programming-relaxation contains only a small proportion of noninteger values, which considerably simplifies the rounding process. Numerical tests have shown excellent results, especially when a small set of long sequences is given.

Bayesian Inference in Satellite Gravity Inversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kis, K. I.; Taylor, Patrick T.; Wittmann, G.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Torony, B.; Mayer-Guerr, T.

2005-01-01

To solve a geophysical inverse problem means applying measurements to determine the parameters of the selected model. The inverse problem is formulated as the Bayesian inference. The Gaussian probability density functions are applied in the Bayes's equation. The CHAMP satellite gravity data are determined at the altitude of 400 kilometer altitude over the South part of the Pannonian basin. The model of interpretation is the right vertical cylinder. The parameters of the model are obtained from the minimum problem solved by the Simplex method.

Numerical algebraic geometry for model selection and its application to the life sciences

PubMed Central

Gross, Elizabeth; Davis, Brent; Ho, Kenneth L.; Bates, Daniel J.

2016-01-01

Researchers working with mathematical models are often confronted by the related problems of parameter estimation, model validation and model selection. These are all optimization problems, well known to be challenging due to nonlinearity, non-convexity and multiple local optima. Furthermore, the challenges are compounded when only partial data are available. Here, we consider polynomial models (e.g. mass-action chemical reaction networks at steady state) and describe a framework for their analysis based on optimization using numerical algebraic geometry. Specifically, we use probability-one polynomial homotopy continuation methods to compute all critical points of the objective function, then filter to recover the global optima. Our approach exploits the geometrical structures relating models and data, and we demonstrate its utility on examples from cell signalling, synthetic biology and epidemiology. PMID:27733697

A selection model for accounting for publication bias in a full network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; Welton, Nicky J; Sutton, Alex; Salanti, Georgia

2014-12-30

Copas and Shi suggested a selection model to explore the potential impact of publication bias via sensitivity analysis based on assumptions for the probability of publication of trials conditional on the precision of their results. Chootrakool et al. extended this model to three-arm trials but did not fully account for the implications of the consistency assumption, and their model is difficult to generalize for complex network structures with more than three treatments. Fitting these selection models within a frequentist setting requires maximization of a complex likelihood function, and identification problems are common. We have previously presented a Bayesian implementation of the selection model when multiple treatments are compared with a common reference treatment. We now present a general model suitable for complex, full network meta-analysis that accounts for consistency when adjusting results for publication bias. We developed a design-by-treatment selection model to describe the mechanism by which studies with different designs (sets of treatments compared in a trial) and precision may be selected for publication. We fit the model in a Bayesian setting because it avoids the numerical problems encountered in the frequentist setting, it is generalizable with respect to the number of treatments and study arms, and it provides a flexible framework for sensitivity analysis using external knowledge. Our model accounts for the additional uncertainty arising from publication bias more successfully compared to the standard Copas model or its previous extensions. We illustrate the methodology using a published triangular network for the failure of vascular graft or arterial patency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparsion analysis of data mining models applied to clinical research in traditional Chinese medicine.

PubMed

Zhao, Yufeng; Xie, Qi; He, Liyun; Liu, Baoyan; Li, Kun; Zhang, Xiang; Bai, Wenjing; Luo, Lin; Jing, Xianghong; Huo, Ruili

2014-10-01

To help researchers selecting appropriate data mining models to provide better evidence for the clinical practice of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) diagnosis and therapy. Clinical issues based on data mining models were comprehensively summarized from four significant elements of the clinical studies: symptoms, symptom patterns, herbs, and efficacy. Existing problems were further generalized to determine the relevant factors of the performance of data mining models, e.g. data type, samples, parameters, variable labels. Combining these relevant factors, the TCM clinical data features were compared with regards to statistical characters and informatics properties. Data models were compared simultaneously from the view of applied conditions and suitable scopes. The main application problems were the inconsistent data type and the small samples for the used data mining models, which caused the inappropriate results, even the mistake results. These features, i.e. advantages, disadvantages, satisfied data types, tasks of data mining, and the TCM issues, were summarized and compared. By aiming at the special features of different data mining models, the clinical doctors could select the suitable data mining models to resolve the TCM problem.

Managing problem employees: a model program and practical guide.

PubMed

Miller, Laurence

2010-01-01

This article presents a model program for managing problem employees that includes a description ofthe basic types of problem employees and employee problems, as well as practical recommendations for. (1) selection and screening, (2) education and training, (3) coaching and counseling, (4) discipline, (5) psychological fitness-for-duty evaluations, (6) mental health services, (7) termination, and (8) leadership and administrative strategies. Throughout, the emphasis on balancing the need for order and productivity in the workplace with fairness and concern for employee health and well-being.

Integrated multi-choice goal programming and multi-segment goal programming for supplier selection considering imperfect-quality and price-quantity discounts in a multiple sourcing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ching-Ter; Chen, Huang-Mu; Zhuang, Zheng-Yun

2014-05-01

Supplier selection (SS) is a multi-criteria and multi-objective problem, in which multi-segment (e.g. imperfect-quality discount (IQD) and price-quantity discount (PQD)) and multi-aspiration level problems may be significantly important; however, little attention had been given to dealing with both of them simultaneously in the past. This study proposes a model for integrating multi-choice goal programming and multi-segment goal programming to solve the above-mentioned problems by providing the following main contributions: (1) it allows decision-makers to set multiple aspiration levels on the right-hand side of each goal to suit real-world situations, (2) the PQD and IQD conditions are considered in the proposed model simultaneously and (3) the proposed model can solve a SS problem with n suppliers where each supplier offers m IQD with r PQD intervals, where only ? extra binary variables are required. The usefulness of the proposed model is explained using a real case. The results indicate that the proposed model not only can deal with a SS problem with multi-segment and multi-aspiration levels, but also can help the decision-maker to find the appropriate order quantities for each supplier by considering cost, quality and delivery.

Causal Client Models in Selecting Effective Interventions: A Cognitive Mapping Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Kwaadsteniet, Leontien; Hagmayer, York; Krol, Nicole P. C. M.; Witteman, Cilia L. M.

2010-01-01

An important reason to choose an intervention to treat psychological problems of clients is the expectation that the intervention will be effective in alleviating the problems. The authors investigated whether clinicians base their ratings of the effectiveness of interventions on models that they construct representing the factors causing and…

Evaluation of the Interactionist Model of Socioeconomic Status and Problem Behavior: A Developmental Cascade across Generations

PubMed Central

Martin, Monica J.; Conger, Rand D.; Schofield, Thomas J.; Dogan, Shannon J.; Widaman, Keith F.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Neppl, Tricia K.

2010-01-01

The current multigenerational study evaluates the utility of the Interactionist Model of Socioeconomic Influence on human development (IMSI) in explaining problem behaviors across generations. The IMSI proposes that the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and human development involves a dynamic interplay that includes both social causation (SES influences human development) and social selection (individual characteristics affect SES). As part of the developmental cascade proposed by the IMSI, the findings from this investigation showed that G1 adolescent problem behavior predicted later G1 SES, family stress, and parental emotional investments, as well as the next generation of children's problem behavior. These results are consistent with a social selection view. Consistent with the social causation perspective, we found a significant relation between G1 SES and family stress, and in turn, family stress predicted G2 problem behavior. Finally, G1 adult SES predicted both material and emotional investments in the G2 child. In turn, emotional investments predicted G2 problem behavior, as did material investments. Some of the predicted pathways varied by G1 parent gender. The results are consistent with the view that processes of both social selection and social causation account for the association between SES and human development. PMID:20576188

Solving multistage stochastic programming models of portfolio selection with outstanding liabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edirisinghe, C.

1994-12-31

Models for portfolio selection in the presence of an outstanding liability have received significant attention, for example, models for pricing options. The problem may be described briefly as follows: given a set of risky securities (and a riskless security such as a bond), and given a set of cash flows, i.e., outstanding liability, to be met at some future date, determine an initial portfolio and a dynamic trading strategy for the underlying securities such that the initial cost of the portfolio is within a prescribed wealth level and the expected cash surpluses arising from trading is maximized. While the tradingmore » strategy should be self-financing, there may also be other restrictions such as leverage and short-sale constraints. Usually the treatment is limited to binomial evolution of uncertainty (of stock price), with possible extensions for developing computational bounds for multinomial generalizations. Posing as stochastic programming models of decision making, we investigate alternative efficient solution procedures under continuous evolution of uncertainty, for discrete time economies. We point out an important moment problem arising in the portfolio selection problem, the solution (or bounds) on which provides the basis for developing efficient computational algorithms. While the underlying stochastic program may be computationally tedious even for a modest number of trading opportunities (i.e., time periods), the derived algorithms may used to solve problems whose sizes are beyond those considered within stochastic optimization.« less

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. V.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1973-01-01

Problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars are reported. Problem areas include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. These tasks are summarized: vehicle model design, mathematical model of vehicle dynamics, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electrochemical controls, remote control, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, and chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

SSL: A Theory of How People Learn to Select Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieskamp, Jorg; Otto, Philipp E.

2006-01-01

The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been raised repeatedly. However, a computational model specifying how people select strategies from their repertoire is still lacking. The proposed strategy selection learning (SSL) theory predicts a strategy selection process on the basis…

Surface Estimation, Variable Selection, and the Nonparametric Oracle Property.

PubMed

Storlie, Curtis B; Bondell, Howard D; Reich, Brian J; Zhang, Hao Helen

2011-04-01

Variable selection for multivariate nonparametric regression is an important, yet challenging, problem due, in part, to the infinite dimensionality of the function space. An ideal selection procedure should be automatic, stable, easy to use, and have desirable asymptotic properties. In particular, we define a selection procedure to be nonparametric oracle (np-oracle) if it consistently selects the correct subset of predictors and at the same time estimates the smooth surface at the optimal nonparametric rate, as the sample size goes to infinity. In this paper, we propose a model selection procedure for nonparametric models, and explore the conditions under which the new method enjoys the aforementioned properties. Developed in the framework of smoothing spline ANOVA, our estimator is obtained via solving a regularization problem with a novel adaptive penalty on the sum of functional component norms. Theoretical properties of the new estimator are established. Additionally, numerous simulated and real examples further demonstrate that the new approach substantially outperforms other existing methods in the finite sample setting.

Surface Estimation, Variable Selection, and the Nonparametric Oracle Property

PubMed Central

Storlie, Curtis B.; Bondell, Howard D.; Reich, Brian J.; Zhang, Hao Helen

2010-01-01

Variable selection for multivariate nonparametric regression is an important, yet challenging, problem due, in part, to the infinite dimensionality of the function space. An ideal selection procedure should be automatic, stable, easy to use, and have desirable asymptotic properties. In particular, we define a selection procedure to be nonparametric oracle (np-oracle) if it consistently selects the correct subset of predictors and at the same time estimates the smooth surface at the optimal nonparametric rate, as the sample size goes to infinity. In this paper, we propose a model selection procedure for nonparametric models, and explore the conditions under which the new method enjoys the aforementioned properties. Developed in the framework of smoothing spline ANOVA, our estimator is obtained via solving a regularization problem with a novel adaptive penalty on the sum of functional component norms. Theoretical properties of the new estimator are established. Additionally, numerous simulated and real examples further demonstrate that the new approach substantially outperforms other existing methods in the finite sample setting. PMID:21603586

Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

Element Verification and Comparison in Sierra/Solid Mechanics Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohashi, Yuki; Roth, William

2016-05-01

The goal of this project was to study the effects of element selection on the Sierra/SM solutions to five common solid mechanics problems. A total of nine element formulations were used for each problem. The models were run multiple times with varying spatial and temporal discretization in order to ensure convergence. The first four problems have been compared to analytical solutions, and all numerical results were found to be sufficiently accurate. The penetration problem was found to have a high mesh dependence in terms of element type, mesh discretization, and meshing scheme. Also, the time to solution is shown formore » each problem in order to facilitate element selection when computer resources are limited.« less

Capacitated set-covering model considering the distance objective and dependency of alternative facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Suletra, I.; Priyandari, Yusuf; Jauhari, Wakhid A.

2018-03-01

We propose a new model of facility location to solve a kind of problem that belong to a class of set-covering problem using an integer programming formulation. Our model contains a single objective function, but it represents two goals. The first is to minimize the number of facilities, and the other is to minimize the total distance of customers to facilities. The first goal is a mandatory goal, and the second is an improvement goal that is very useful when alternate optimum solutions for the first goal exist. We use a big number as a weight on the first goal to force the solution algorithm to give first priority to the first goal. Besides considering capacity constraints, our model accommodates a kind of either-or constraints representing facilities dependency. The either-or constraints will prevent the solution algorithm to select two or more facilities from the same set of facility with mutually exclusive properties. A real location selection problem to locate a set of wastewater treatment facility (IPAL) in Surakarta city, Indonesia, will describe the implementation of our model. A numerical example is given using the data of that real problem.

An adaptive model order reduction by proper snapshot selection for nonlinear dynamical problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigro, P. S. B.; Anndif, M.; Teixeira, Y.; Pimenta, P. M.; Wriggers, P.

2016-04-01

Model Order Reduction (MOR) methods are employed in many fields of Engineering in order to reduce the processing time of complex computational simulations. A usual approach to achieve this is the application of Galerkin projection to generate representative subspaces (reduced spaces). However, when strong nonlinearities in a dynamical system are present and this technique is employed several times along the simulation, it can be very inefficient. This work proposes a new adaptive strategy, which ensures low computational cost and small error to deal with this problem. This work also presents a new method to select snapshots named Proper Snapshot Selection (PSS). The objective of the PSS is to obtain a good balance between accuracy and computational cost by improving the adaptive strategy through a better snapshot selection in real time (online analysis). With this method, it is possible a substantial reduction of the subspace, keeping the quality of the model without the use of the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD).

GREECE--SELECTED PROBLEMS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MARTONFFY, ANDREA PONTECORVO; AND OTHERS

A CURRICULUM GUIDE IS PRESENTED FOR A 10-WEEK STUDY OF ANCIENT GREEK CIVILIZATION AT THE 10TH-GRADE LEVEL. TEACHING MATERIALS FOR THE UNIT INCLUDE (1) PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SOURCES DEALING WITH THE PERIOD FROM THE BRONZE AGE THROUGH THE HELLENISTIC PERIOD, (2) GEOGRAPHY PROBLEMS, AND (3) CULTURAL MODEL PROBLEM EXERCISES. THOSE CONCEPTS WITH WHICH…

Feature and Region Selection for Visual Learning.

PubMed

Zhao, Ji; Wang, Liantao; Cabral, Ricardo; De la Torre, Fernando

2016-03-01

Visual learning problems, such as object classification and action recognition, are typically approached using extensions of the popular bag-of-words (BoWs) model. Despite its great success, it is unclear what visual features the BoW model is learning. Which regions in the image or video are used to discriminate among classes? Which are the most discriminative visual words? Answering these questions is fundamental for understanding existing BoW models and inspiring better models for visual recognition. To answer these questions, this paper presents a method for feature selection and region selection in the visual BoW model. This allows for an intermediate visualization of the features and regions that are important for visual learning. The main idea is to assign latent weights to the features or regions, and jointly optimize these latent variables with the parameters of a classifier (e.g., support vector machine). There are four main benefits of our approach: 1) our approach accommodates non-linear additive kernels, such as the popular χ(2) and intersection kernel; 2) our approach is able to handle both regions in images and spatio-temporal regions in videos in a unified way; 3) the feature selection problem is convex, and both problems can be solved using a scalable reduced gradient method; and 4) we point out strong connections with multiple kernel learning and multiple instance learning approaches. Experimental results in the PASCAL VOC 2007, MSR Action Dataset II and YouTube illustrate the benefits of our approach.

Effectiveness of discovery learning model on mathematical problem solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiana, Yunita; Wahyudin, Sispiyati, Ririn

2017-08-01

This research is aimed to describe the effectiveness of discovery learning model on mathematical problem solving. This research investigate the students' problem solving competency before and after learned by using discovery learning model. The population used in this research was student in grade VII in one of junior high school in West Bandung Regency. From nine classes, class VII B were randomly selected as the sample of experiment class, and class VII C as control class, which consist of 35 students every class. The method in this research was quasi experiment. The instrument in this research is pre-test, worksheet and post-test about problem solving of mathematics. Based on the research, it can be conclude that the qualification of problem solving competency of students who gets discovery learning model on level 80%, including in medium category and it show that discovery learning model effective to improve mathematical problem solving.

Supplier Selection Using Weighted Utility Additive Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karande, Prasad; Chakraborty, Shankar

2015-10-01

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem which mainly involves evaluating a number of available suppliers according to a set of common criteria for choosing the best one to meet the organizational needs. For any manufacturing or service organization, selecting the right upstream suppliers is a key success factor that will significantly reduce purchasing cost, increase downstream customer satisfaction and improve competitive ability. The past researchers have attempted to solve the supplier selection problem employing different MCDM techniques which involve active participation of the decision makers in the decision-making process. This paper deals with the application of weighted utility additive (WUTA) method for solving supplier selection problems. The WUTA method, an extension of utility additive approach, is based on ordinal regression and consists of building a piece-wise linear additive decision model from a preference structure using linear programming (LP). It adopts preference disaggregation principle and addresses the decision-making activities through operational models which need implicit preferences in the form of a preorder of reference alternatives or a subset of these alternatives present in the process. The preferential preorder provided by the decision maker is used as a restriction of a LP problem, which has its own objective function, minimization of the sum of the errors associated with the ranking of each alternative. Based on a given reference ranking of alternatives, one or more additive utility functions are derived. Using these utility functions, the weighted utilities for individual criterion values are combined into an overall weighted utility for a given alternative. It is observed that WUTA method, having a sound mathematical background, can provide accurate ranking to the candidate suppliers and choose the best one to fulfill the organizational requirements. Two real time examples are illustrated to prove its applicability and appropriateness in solving supplier selection problems.

Optimizing suicide and trespass prevention on railways: a problem-solving model from the RESTRAIL project.

PubMed

Havârneanu, Grigore M; Burkhardt, Jean-Marie; Silla, Anne

2017-12-01

Suicides and trespassing accidents result in more than 3800 fatalities in Europe, representing 88% of all fatalities occurring within the EU railway system. This paper presents a problem-solving model, which consists of a multistep approach structuring the analysis of a suicide or trespass-related problem on the railways. First, we present the method used to design, evaluate and improve the problem-solving model. Then we describe the model in detail: it comprises six steps with several subsequent actions, and each action is approached through a checklist of prompting questions and possible answers. At the end, we discuss the added value of this model for decision makers and its usability in the selection of optimal prevention measures.

A CLIPS-based expert system for the evaluation and selection of robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nour, Mohamed A.; Offodile, Felix O.; Madey, Gregory R.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development of a prototype expert system for intelligent selection of robots for manufacturing operations. The paper first develops a comprehensive, three-stage process to model the robot selection problem. The decisions involved in this model easily lend themselves to an expert system application. A rule-based system, based on the selection model, is developed using the CLIPS expert system shell. Data about actual robots is used to test the performance of the prototype system. Further extensions to the rule-based system for data handling and interfacing capabilities are suggested.

A Novel Numerical Method for Fuzzy Boundary Value Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Can, E.; Bayrak, M. A.; Hicdurmaz

2016-05-01

In the present paper, a new numerical method is proposed for solving fuzzy differential equations which are utilized for the modeling problems in science and engineering. Fuzzy approach is selected due to its important applications on processing uncertainty or subjective information for mathematical models of physical problems. A second-order fuzzy linear boundary value problem is considered in particular due to its important applications in physics. Moreover, numerical experiments are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed numerical method on specific physical problems such as heat conduction in an infinite plate and a fin.

Genetic algorithm parameters tuning for resource-constrained project scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xingke; Yuan, Shengrui

2018-04-01

Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) is a kind of important scheduling problem. To achieve a certain optimal goal such as the shortest duration, the smallest cost, the resource balance and so on, it is required to arrange the start and finish of all tasks under the condition of satisfying project timing constraints and resource constraints. In theory, the problem belongs to the NP-hard problem, and the model is abundant. Many combinatorial optimization problems are special cases of RCPSP, such as job shop scheduling, flow shop scheduling and so on. At present, the genetic algorithm (GA) has been used to deal with the classical RCPSP problem and achieved remarkable results. Vast scholars have also studied the improved genetic algorithm for the RCPSP problem, which makes it to solve the RCPSP problem more efficiently and accurately. However, for the selection of the main parameters of the genetic algorithm, there is no parameter optimization in these studies. Generally, we used the empirical method, but it cannot ensure to meet the optimal parameters. In this paper, the problem was carried out, which is the blind selection of parameters in the process of solving the RCPSP problem. We made sampling analysis, the establishment of proxy model and ultimately solved the optimal parameters.

Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: from problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods.

PubMed

Jun, Gyuchan T; Morris, Zoe; Eldabi, Tillal; Harper, Paul; Naseer, Aisha; Patel, Brijesh; Clarkson, John P

2011-05-19

There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection.

A Hidden Markov Model Approach to the Problem of Heuristic Selection in Hyper-Heuristics with a Case Study in High School Timetabling Problems.

PubMed

Kheiri, Ahmed; Keedwell, Ed

2017-01-01

Operations research is a well-established field that uses computational systems to support decisions in business and public life. Good solutions to operations research problems can make a large difference to the efficient running of businesses and organisations and so the field often searches for new methods to improve these solutions. The high school timetabling problem is an example of an operations research problem and is a challenging task which requires assigning events and resources to time slots subject to a set of constraints. In this article, a new sequence-based selection hyper-heuristic is presented that produces excellent results on a suite of high school timetabling problems. In this study, we present an easy-to-implement, easy-to-maintain, and effective sequence-based selection hyper-heuristic to solve high school timetabling problems using a benchmark of unified real-world instances collected from different countries. We show that with sequence-based methods, it is possible to discover new best known solutions for a number of the problems in the timetabling domain. Through this investigation, the usefulness of sequence-based selection hyper-heuristics has been demonstrated and the capability of these methods has been shown to exceed the state of the art.

Parameter Selection Methods in Inverse Problem Formulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-03

clinical data and used for prediction and a model for the reaction of the cardiovascular system to an ergometric workload. Key Words: Parameter selection...model for HIV dynamics which has been successfully validated with clinical data and used for prediction and a model for the reaction of the...recently developed in-host model for HIV dynamics which has been successfully validated with clinical data and used for prediction [4, 8]; b) a global

Set selection dynamical system neural networks with partial memories, with applications to Sudoku and KenKen puzzles.

PubMed

Boreland, B; Clement, G; Kunze, H

2015-08-01

After reviewing set selection and memory model dynamical system neural networks, we introduce a neural network model that combines set selection with partial memories (stored memories on subsets of states in the network). We establish that feasible equilibria with all states equal to ± 1 correspond to answers to a particular set theoretic problem. We show that KenKen puzzles can be formulated as a particular case of this set theoretic problem and use the neural network model to solve them; in addition, we use a similar approach to solve Sudoku. We illustrate the approach in examples. As a heuristic experiment, we use online or print resources to identify the difficulty of the puzzles and compare these difficulties to the number of iterations used by the appropriate neural network solver, finding a strong relationship. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Ranking Approach to Genomic Selection.

PubMed

Blondel, Mathieu; Onogi, Akio; Iwata, Hiroyoshi; Ueda, Naonori

2015-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is a recent selective breeding method which uses predictive models based on whole-genome molecular markers. Until now, existing studies formulated GS as the problem of modeling an individual's breeding value for a particular trait of interest, i.e., as a regression problem. To assess predictive accuracy of the model, the Pearson correlation between observed and predicted trait values was used. In this paper, we propose to formulate GS as the problem of ranking individuals according to their breeding value. Our proposed framework allows us to employ machine learning methods for ranking which had previously not been considered in the GS literature. To assess ranking accuracy of a model, we introduce a new measure originating from the information retrieval literature called normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). NDCG rewards more strongly models which assign a high rank to individuals with high breeding value. Therefore, NDCG reflects a prerequisite objective in selective breeding: accurate selection of individuals with high breeding value. We conducted a comparison of 10 existing regression methods and 3 new ranking methods on 6 datasets, consisting of 4 plant species and 25 traits. Our experimental results suggest that tree-based ensemble methods including McRank, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Regression Trees achieve excellent ranking accuracy. RKHS regression and RankSVM also achieve good accuracy when used with an RBF kernel. Traditional regression methods such as Bayesian lasso, wBSR and BayesC were found less suitable for ranking. Pearson correlation was found to correlate poorly with NDCG. Our study suggests two important messages. First, ranking methods are a promising research direction in GS. Second, NDCG can be a useful evaluation measure for GS.

Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Backus, George E.

1988-01-01

The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

An Associative Index Model for the Results List Based on Vannevar Bush's Selection Concept

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Charles; Julien, Charles-Antoine; Leide, John E.

2010-01-01

Introduction: We define the results list problem in information search and suggest the "associative index model", an ad-hoc, user-derived indexing solution based on Vannevar Bush's description of an associative indexing approach for his memex machine. We further define what selection means in indexing terms with reference to Charles…

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

The problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars were investigated. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; navigation, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks were studied: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement and transport parameter evaluation.

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

Investigation of problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars has been undertaken. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks have been under study: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of a dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer sybsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

Materials and techniques for model construction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wigley, D. A.

1985-01-01

The problems confronting the designer of models for cryogenic wind tunnel models are discussed with particular reference to the difficulties in obtaining appropriate data on the mechanical and physical properties of candidate materials and their fabrication technologies. The relationship between strength and toughness of alloys is discussed in the context of maximizing both and avoiding the problem of dimensional and microstructural instability. All major classes of materials used in model construction are considered in some detail and in the Appendix selected numerical data is given for the most relevant materials. The stepped-specimen program to investigate stress-induced dimensional changes in alloys is discussed in detail together with interpretation of the initial results. The methods used to bond model components are considered with particular reference to the selection of filler alloys and temperature cycles to avoid microstructural degradation and loss of mechanical properties.

Execution models for mapping programs onto distributed memory parallel computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sussman, Alan

1992-01-01

The problem of exploiting the parallelism available in a program to efficiently employ the resources of the target machine is addressed. The problem is discussed in the context of building a mapping compiler for a distributed memory parallel machine. The paper describes using execution models to drive the process of mapping a program in the most efficient way onto a particular machine. Through analysis of the execution models for several mapping techniques for one class of programs, we show that the selection of the best technique for a particular program instance can make a significant difference in performance. On the other hand, the results of benchmarks from an implementation of a mapping compiler show that our execution models are accurate enough to select the best mapping technique for a given program.

Vehicle Routing Problem Using Genetic Algorithm with Multi Compartment on Vegetable Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurnia, Hari; Gustri Wahyuni, Elyza; Cergas Pembrani, Elang; Gardini, Syifa Tri; Kurnia Aditya, Silfa

2018-03-01

The problem that is often gained by the industries of managing and distributing vegetables is how to distribute vegetables so that the quality of the vegetables can be maintained properly. The problems encountered include optimal route selection and little travel time or so-called TSP (Traveling Salesman Problem). These problems can be modeled using the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) algorithm with rating ranking, a cross order based crossing, and also order based mutation mutations on selected chromosomes. This study uses limitations using only 20 market points, 2 point warehouse (multi compartment) and 5 vehicles. It is determined that for one distribution, one vehicle can only distribute to 4 market points only from 1 particular warehouse, and also one such vehicle can only accommodate 100 kg capacity.

Little Evidence That Time in Child Care Causes Externalizing Problems During Early Childhood in Norway

PubMed Central

Zachrisson, Henrik Daae; Dearing, Eric; Lekhal, Ratib; Toppelberg, Claudio O.

2012-01-01

Associations between maternal reports of hours in child care and children’s externalizing problems at 18 and 36 months of age were examined in a population-based Norwegian sample (n = 75,271). Within a sociopolitical context of homogenously high-quality child care, there was little evidence that high quantity of care causes externalizing problems. Using conventional approaches to handling selection bias and listwise deletion for substantial attrition in this sample, more hours in care predicted higher problem levels, yet with small effect sizes. The finding, however, was not robust to using multiple imputation for missing values. Moreover, when sibling and individual fixed-effects models for handling selection bias were used, no relation between hours and problems was evident. PMID:23311645

Five roles for using theory and evidence in the design and testing of behavior change interventions.

PubMed

Bartholomew, L Kay; Mullen, Patricia Dolan

2011-01-01

The prevailing wisdom in the field of health-related behavior change is that well-designed and effective interventions are guided by theory. Using the framework of intervention mapping, we describe and provide examples of how investigators can effectively select and use theory to design, test, and report interventions. We propose five roles for theory and evidence about theories: a) identification of behavior and determinants of behavior related to a specified health problem (i.e., the logic model of the problem); b) explication of a causal model that includes theoretical constructs for producing change in the behavior of interest (i.e., the logic model of change); c) selection of intervention methods and delivery of practical applications to achieve changes in health behavior; d) evaluation of the resulting intervention including theoretical mediating variables; and e) reporting of the active ingredients of the intervention together with the evaluation results. In problem-driven applied behavioral or social science, researchers use one or multiple theories, empiric evidence, and new research, both to assess a problem and to solve or prevent a problem. Furthermore, the theories for description of the problem may differ from the theories for its solution. In an applied approach, the main focus is on solving problems regarding health behavior change and improvement of health outcomes, and the criteria for success are formulated in terms of the problem rather than the theory. Resulting contributions to theory development may be quite useful, but they are peripheral to the problem-solving process.

Evaluating model structure adequacy: The case of the Maggia Valley groundwater system, southern Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; L. Foglia,; S. W. Mehl,; P. Burlando,

2013-01-01

Model adequacy is evaluated with alternative models rated using model selection criteria (AICc, BIC, and KIC) and three other statistics. Model selection criteria are tested with cross-validation experiments and insights for using alternative models to evaluate model structural adequacy are provided. The study is conducted using the computer codes UCODE_2005 and MMA (MultiModel Analysis). One recharge alternative is simulated using the TOPKAPI hydrological model. The predictions evaluated include eight heads and three flows located where ecological consequences and model precision are of concern. Cross-validation is used to obtain measures of prediction accuracy. Sixty-four models were designed deterministically and differ in representation of river, recharge, bedrock topography, and hydraulic conductivity. Results include: (1) What may seem like inconsequential choices in model construction may be important to predictions. Analysis of predictions from alternative models is advised. (2) None of the model selection criteria consistently identified models with more accurate predictions. This is a disturbing result that suggests to reconsider the utility of model selection criteria, and/or the cross-validation measures used in this work to measure model accuracy. (3) KIC displayed poor performance for the present regression problems; theoretical considerations suggest that difficulties are associated with wide variations in the sensitivity term of KIC resulting from the models being nonlinear and the problems being ill-posed due to parameter correlations and insensitivity. The other criteria performed somewhat better, and similarly to each other. (4) Quantities with high leverage are more difficult to predict. The results are expected to be generally applicable to models of environmental systems.

Effects of a Target-Task Problem-Solving Model on Senior Secondary School Students' Performance in Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olaniyan, A. O.; Omosewo, E. O.

2015-01-01

The study investigated the Effects of a Target-Task Problem-Solving Model on Senior Secondary School Students' Performance in Physics. The research design was a quasi-experimental, non-randomized, non-equivalent pretest, post-test using a control group. The study was conducted in two schools purposively selected and involved a total of 120 Senior…

Characterizations of Social-Based and Self-Based Contexts Associated with Students' Awareness, Evaluation, and Regulation of Their Thinking during Small-Group Mathematical Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magiera, Marta T.; Zawojewski, Judith S.

2011-01-01

This exploratory study focused on characterizing problem-solving situations associated with spontaneous metacognitive activity. The results came from connected case studies of a group of 3 purposefully selected 9th-grade students working collaboratively on a series of 5 modeling problems. Students' descriptions of their own thinking during…

Optimal time points sampling in pathway modelling.

PubMed

Hu, Shiyan

2004-01-01

Modelling cellular dynamics based on experimental data is at the heart of system biology. Considerable progress has been made to dynamic pathway modelling as well as the related parameter estimation. However, few of them gives consideration for the issue of optimal sampling time selection for parameter estimation. Time course experiments in molecular biology rarely produce large and accurate data sets and the experiments involved are usually time consuming and expensive. Therefore, to approximate parameters for models with only few available sampling data is of significant practical value. For signal transduction, the sampling intervals are usually not evenly distributed and are based on heuristics. In the paper, we investigate an approach to guide the process of selecting time points in an optimal way to minimize the variance of parameter estimates. In the method, we first formulate the problem to a nonlinear constrained optimization problem by maximum likelihood estimation. We then modify and apply a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, which combines the advantages of both quantum computing and evolutionary computing, to solve the optimization problem. The new algorithm does not suffer from the morass of selecting good initial values and being stuck into local optimum as usually accompanied with the conventional numerical optimization techniques. The simulation results indicate the soundness of the new method.

Effect of damping on excitability of high-order normal modes. [for a large space telescope spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merchant, D. H.; Gates, R. M.; Straayer, J. W.

1975-01-01

The effect of localized structural damping on the excitability of higher-order large space telescope spacecraft modes is investigated. A preprocessor computer program is developed to incorporate Voigt structural joint damping models in a finite-element dynamic model. A postprocessor computer program is developed to select critical modes for low-frequency attitude control problems and for higher-frequency fine-stabilization problems. The selection is accomplished by ranking the flexible modes based on coefficients for rate gyro, position gyro, and optical sensor, and on image-plane motions due to sinusoidal or random PSD force and torque inputs.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

PubMed

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-09-17

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

PubMed Central

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-01-01

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

A Parameter Subset Selection Algorithm for Mixed-Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Kathleen L.; Smith, Ralph C.

2016-01-01

Mixed-effects models are commonly used to statistically model phenomena that include attributes associated with a population or general underlying mechanism as well as effects specific to individuals or components of the general mechanism. This can include individual effects associated with data from multiple experiments. However, the parameterizations used to incorporate the population and individual effects are often unidentifiable in the sense that parameters are not uniquely specified by the data. As a result, the current literature focuses on model selection, by which insensitive parameters are fixed or removed from the model. Model selection methods that employ information criteria are applicablemore » to both linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models, but such techniques are limited in that they are computationally prohibitive for large problems due to the number of possible models that must be tested. To limit the scope of possible models for model selection via information criteria, we introduce a parameter subset selection (PSS) algorithm for mixed-effects models, which orders the parameters by their significance. In conclusion, we provide examples to verify the effectiveness of the PSS algorithm and to test the performance of mixed-effects model selection that makes use of parameter subset selection.« less

DeepQA: improving the estimation of single protein model quality with deep belief networks.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Hou, Jie; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-12-05

Protein quality assessment (QA) useful for ranking and selecting protein models has long been viewed as one of the major challenges for protein tertiary structure prediction. Especially, estimating the quality of a single protein model, which is important for selecting a few good models out of a large model pool consisting of mostly low-quality models, is still a largely unsolved problem. We introduce a novel single-model quality assessment method DeepQA based on deep belief network that utilizes a number of selected features describing the quality of a model from different perspectives, such as energy, physio-chemical characteristics, and structural information. The deep belief network is trained on several large datasets consisting of models from the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiments, several publicly available datasets, and models generated by our in-house ab initio method. Our experiments demonstrate that deep belief network has better performance compared to Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks on the protein model quality assessment problem, and our method DeepQA achieves the state-of-the-art performance on CASP11 dataset. It also outperformed two well-established methods in selecting good outlier models from a large set of models of mostly low quality generated by ab initio modeling methods. DeepQA is a useful deep learning tool for protein single model quality assessment and protein structure prediction. The source code, executable, document and training/test datasets of DeepQA for Linux is freely available to non-commercial users at http://cactus.rnet.missouri.edu/DeepQA/ .

Numerical modeling of the atmosphere with an isentropic vertical coordinate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Yueh-Jiuan G.; Arakawa, Akio

1990-01-01

A theta-coordinate model simulating the nonlinear evolution of a baroclinic wave is presented. In the model, vertical discretization maintains important integral constraints such as conservation of the angular momentum and total energy. A massless-layer approach is used in the treatment of the intersections of coordinate surfaces with the lower boundary. This formally eliminates the intersection problem, but raises other computational problems. Horizontal discretization of the continuity and momentum equations in the model are designed to overcome these problems. Selected results from a 10-day integration with the 25-layer, beta-plane version of the model are presented. It is concluded that the model can simulate the nonlinear evolution of a baroclinic wave and associated dynamical processes without major computational difficulties.

On-line Model Structure Selection for Estimation of Plasma Boundary in a Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Škvára, Vít; Šmídl, Václav; Urban, Jakub

2015-11-01

Control of the plasma field in the tokamak requires reliable estimation of the plasma boundary. The plasma boundary is given by a complex mathematical model and the only available measurements are responses of induction coils around the plasma. For the purpose of boundary estimation the model can be reduced to simple linear regression with potentially infinitely many elements. The number of elements must be selected manually and this choice significantly influences the resulting shape. In this paper, we investigate the use of formal model structure estimation techniques for the problem. Specifically, we formulate a sparse least squares estimator using the automatic relevance principle. The resulting algorithm is a repetitive evaluation of the least squares problem which could be computed in real time. Performance of the resulting algorithm is illustrated on simulated data and evaluated with respect to a more detailed and computationally costly model FREEBIE.

The importance of a positive family history of alcoholism, parental rejection and emotional warmth, behavioral problems and peer substance use for alcohol problems in teenagers: a path analysis.

PubMed

Barnow, Sven; Schuckit, Marc A; Lucht, Michael; John, Ulrich; Freyberger, Harald J

2002-05-01

The purpose of this study was to test a hypothetical model of alcohol problems in German adolescents. Among 180 offspring, family history of alcoholism, parenting styles, behavioral and emotional problems, peer-group characteristics, feelings of self-esteem, behavioral problems and psychiatric comorbidity of the parents were examined. Data were generated from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), in which families were randomly selected if 12-18 year old biological offspring were members of the household; a smaller group of subjects was selected from local outpatient treatment centers. Members of 133 families, including 180 (50.6% male) offspring who were appropriate for the current analyses, received personal semistructured diagnostic interviews and several self-rating questionnaires. Analyses compared offspring with alcohol problems (AP; n = 40) and with no alcohol problems (NAP; n = 140), and used structural equation modeling to test a hypothetical model. The comparisons revealed that the AP group had significantly more behavioral problems (e.g., aggression/delinquency), more perceived parental rejection and less emotional warmth, a higher amount of alcohol consumption, were more likely to associate with substance-using peers and more often received a diagnosis of conduct disorder or antisocial personality disorder. Whereas the family history of alcoholism did not differ significantly between groups, parents of offspring with an alcohol use disorder had significantly more additional diagnoses on DSM-IV Axis I. The evaluation of the model supported the importance of aggression/delinquency and association with substance-using peers for alcohol problems in people. An additional diagnosis in the parents was directly and indirectly (through aggression/delinquency) related to alcohol problems of the adolescents. The data indicate that alcohol problems in the offspring are associated with several domains of influence in their environment. Prospective studies measuring both biological and environmental factors using sufficient sample sizes will be needed for optimal understanding of the development of alcohol problems in youth.

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Processes in arithmetic strategy selection: a fMRI study.

PubMed

Taillan, Julien; Ardiale, Eléonore; Anton, Jean-Luc; Nazarian, Bruno; Félician, Olivier; Lemaire, Patrick

2015-01-01

This neuroimaging (functional magnetic resonance imaging) study investigated neural correlates of strategy selection. Young adults performed an arithmetic task in two different conditions. In both conditions, participants had to provide estimates of two-digit multiplication problems like 54 × 78. In the choice condition, participants had to select the better of two available rounding strategies, rounding-up (RU) strategy (i.e., doing 60 × 80 = 4,800) or rounding-down (RD) strategy (i.e., doing 50 × 70 = 3,500 to estimate product of 54 × 78). In the no-choice condition, participants did not have to select strategy on each problem but were told which strategy to use; they executed RU and RD strategies each on a series of problems. Participants also had a control task (i.e., providing correct products of multiplication problems like 40 × 50). Brain activations and performance were analyzed as a function of these conditions. Participants were able to frequently choose the better strategy in the choice condition; they were also slower when they executed the difficult RU than the easier RD. Neuroimaging data showed greater brain activations in right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and angular gyrus (ANG), when selecting (relative to executing) the better strategy on each problem. Moreover, RU was associated with more parietal cortex activation than RD. These results suggest an important role of fronto-parietal network in strategy selection and have important implications for our further understanding and modeling cognitive processes underlying strategy selection.

Processes in arithmetic strategy selection: a fMRI study

PubMed Central

Taillan, Julien; Ardiale, Eléonore; Anton, Jean-Luc; Nazarian, Bruno; Félician, Olivier; Lemaire, Patrick

2015-01-01

This neuroimaging (functional magnetic resonance imaging) study investigated neural correlates of strategy selection. Young adults performed an arithmetic task in two different conditions. In both conditions, participants had to provide estimates of two-digit multiplication problems like 54 × 78. In the choice condition, participants had to select the better of two available rounding strategies, rounding-up (RU) strategy (i.e., doing 60 × 80 = 4,800) or rounding-down (RD) strategy (i.e., doing 50 × 70 = 3,500 to estimate product of 54 × 78). In the no-choice condition, participants did not have to select strategy on each problem but were told which strategy to use; they executed RU and RD strategies each on a series of problems. Participants also had a control task (i.e., providing correct products of multiplication problems like 40 × 50). Brain activations and performance were analyzed as a function of these conditions. Participants were able to frequently choose the better strategy in the choice condition; they were also slower when they executed the difficult RU than the easier RD. Neuroimaging data showed greater brain activations in right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and angular gyrus (ANG), when selecting (relative to executing) the better strategy on each problem. Moreover, RU was associated with more parietal cortex activation than RD. These results suggest an important role of fronto-parietal network in strategy selection and have important implications for our further understanding and modeling cognitive processes underlying strategy selection. PMID:25698995

Adaptive Finite Element Methods for Continuum Damage Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, J. B.; Tworzydlo, W. W.; Xiques, K. E.

1995-01-01

The paper presents an application of adaptive finite element methods to the modeling of low-cycle continuum damage and life prediction of high-temperature components. The major objective is to provide automated and accurate modeling of damaged zones through adaptive mesh refinement and adaptive time-stepping methods. The damage modeling methodology is implemented in an usual way by embedding damage evolution in the transient nonlinear solution of elasto-viscoplastic deformation problems. This nonlinear boundary-value problem is discretized by adaptive finite element methods. The automated h-adaptive mesh refinements are driven by error indicators, based on selected principal variables in the problem (stresses, non-elastic strains, damage, etc.). In the time domain, adaptive time-stepping is used, combined with a predictor-corrector time marching algorithm. The time selection is controlled by required time accuracy. In order to take into account strong temperature dependency of material parameters, the nonlinear structural solution a coupled with thermal analyses (one-way coupling). Several test examples illustrate the importance and benefits of adaptive mesh refinements in accurate prediction of damage levels and failure time.

Journal selection decisions: a biomedical library operations research model. I. The framework.

PubMed Central

Kraft, D H; Polacsek, R A; Soergel, L; Burns, K; Klair, A

1976-01-01

The problem of deciding which journal titles to select for acquisition in a biomedical library is modeled. The approach taken is based on cost/benefit ratios. Measures of journal worth, methods of data collection, and journal cost data are considered. The emphasis is on the development of a practical process for selecting journal titles, based on the objectivity and rationality of the model; and on the collection of the approprate data and library statistics in a reasonable manner. The implications of this process towards an overall management information system (MIS) for biomedical serials handling are discussed. PMID:820391

Where neuroscience and dynamic system theory meet autonomous robotics: a contracting basal ganglia model for action selection.

PubMed

Girard, B; Tabareau, N; Pham, Q C; Berthoz, A; Slotine, J-J

2008-05-01

Action selection, the problem of choosing what to do next, is central to any autonomous agent architecture. We use here a multi-disciplinary approach at the convergence of neuroscience, dynamical system theory and autonomous robotics, in order to propose an efficient action selection mechanism based on a new model of the basal ganglia. We first describe new developments of contraction theory regarding locally projected dynamical systems. We exploit these results to design a stable computational model of the cortico-baso-thalamo-cortical loops. Based on recent anatomical data, we include usually neglected neural projections, which participate in performing accurate selection. Finally, the efficiency of this model as an autonomous robot action selection mechanism is assessed in a standard survival task. The model exhibits valuable dithering avoidance and energy-saving properties, when compared with a simple if-then-else decision rule.

A study for development of aerothermodynamic test model materials and fabrication technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, W. G.; Connor, L. E.

1972-01-01

A literature survey, materials reformulation and tailoring, fabrication problems, and materials selection and evaluation for fabricating models to be used with the phase-change technique for obtaining quantitative aerodynamic heat transfer data are presented. The study resulted in the selection of two best materials, stycast 2762 FT, and an alumina ceramic. Characteristics of these materials and detailed fabrication methods are presented.

The Hull Method for Selecting the Number of Common Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorenzo-Seva, Urbano; Timmerman, Marieke E.; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2011-01-01

A common problem in exploratory factor analysis is how many factors need to be extracted from a particular data set. We propose a new method for selecting the number of major common factors: the Hull method, which aims to find a model with an optimal balance between model fit and number of parameters. We examine the performance of the method in an…

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.

2013-01-01

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

DIVERSE MODELS FOR SOLVING CONTRASTING OUTFALL PROBLEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Mixing zone initial dilution and far-field models are useful for assuring that water quality criteria will be met when specific outfall discharge criteria are applied. Presented here is a selective review of mixing zone initial dilution models and relatively simple far-field tran...

Information-Processing Models and Curriculum Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calfee, Robert C.

1970-01-01

"This paper consists of three sections--(a) the relation of theoretical analyses of learning to curriculum design, (b) the role of information-processing models in analyses of learning processes, and (c) selected examples of the application of information-processing models to curriculum design problems." (Author)

Perceived peer influence and peer selection on adolescent smoking.

PubMed

Hoffman, Beth R; Monge, Peter R; Chou, Chih-Ping; Valente, Thomas W

2007-08-01

Despite advances in tobacco control, adolescent smoking remains a problem. The smoking status of friends is one of the highest correlates with adolescent smoking. This homophily (commonality of friends based on a given attribute) may be due to either peer pressure, where adolescents adopt the smoking behaviors of their friends, or peer selection, where adolescents choose friends based on their smoking status. This study used structural equation modeling to test a model of peer influence and peer selection on ever smoking by adolescents. The primary analysis of the model did not reach significance, but post hoc analyses did result in a model with good fit. Results indicated that both peer influence and peer selection were occurring, and that peer influence was more salient in the population than was peer selection. Implications of these results for tobacco prevention programs are discussed.

Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McIlraith, Sheila; Biswas, Gautam; Clancy, Dan; Gupta, Vineet

2005-01-01

This paper reports on an on-going Project to investigate techniques to diagnose complex dynamical systems that are modeled as hybrid systems. In particular, we examine continuous systems with embedded supervisory controllers that experience abrupt, partial or full failure of component devices. We cast the diagnosis problem as a model selection problem. To reduce the space of potential models under consideration, we exploit techniques from qualitative reasoning to conjecture an initial set of qualitative candidate diagnoses, which induce a smaller set of models. We refine these diagnoses using parameter estimation and model fitting techniques. As a motivating case study, we have examined the problem of diagnosing NASA's Sprint AERCam, a small spherical robotic camera unit with 12 thrusters that enable both linear and rotational motion.

A LEAST ABSOLUTE SHRINKAGE AND SELECTION OPERATOR (LASSO) FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Lofberg, Johan; Brenner, Martin J.

2006-01-01

Identification of parametric nonlinear models involves estimating unknown parameters and detecting its underlying structure. Structure computation is concerned with selecting a subset of parameters to give a parsimonious description of the system which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of a 1 penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. The performance of this LASSO structure detection method was evaluated by using it to estimate the structure of a nonlinear polynomial model. Applicability of the method to more complex systems such as those encountered in aerospace applications was shown by identifying a parsimonious system description of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data.

Social Networks and the Diffusion of Adolescent Problem Behavior: Reliable Estimates of Selection and Influence from Sixth Through Ninth Grades.

PubMed

Osgood, D Wayne; Feinberg, Mark E; Ragan, Daniel T

2015-08-01

Seeking to reduce problematic peer influence is a prominent theme of programs to prevent adolescent problem behavior. To support the refinement of this aspect of prevention programming, we examined peer influence and selection processes for three problem behaviors (delinquency, alcohol use, and smoking). We assessed not only the overall strengths of these peer processes, but also their consistency versus variability across settings. We used dynamic stochastic actor-based models to analyze five waves of friendship network data across sixth through ninth grades for a large sample of U.S. adolescents. Our sample included two successive grade cohorts of youth in 26 school districts participating in the PROSPER study, yielding 51 longitudinal social networks based on respondents' friendship nominations. For all three self-reported antisocial behaviors, we found evidence of both peer influence and selection processes tied to antisocial behavior. There was little reliable variance in these processes across the networks, suggesting that the statistical imprecision of the peer influence and selection estimates in previous studies likely accounts for inconsistencies in results. Adolescent friendship networks play a strong role in shaping problem behavior, but problem behaviors also inform friendship choices. In addition to preferring friends with similar levels of problem behavior, adolescents tend to choose friends who engage in problem behaviors, thus creating broader diffusion.

Social Networks and the Diffusion of Adolescent Problem Behavior: Reliable Estimates of Selection and Influence from 6th through 9th Grade

PubMed Central

Osgood, D. Wayne; Feinberg, Mark E.; Ragan, Daniel T.

2015-01-01

Seeking to reduce problematic peer influence is a prominent theme of programs to prevent adolescent problem behavior. To support the refinement of this aspect of prevention programming, we examined peer influence and selection processes for three problem behaviors (delinquency, alcohol use, and smoking). We assessed not only the overall strengths of these peer processes, but also their consistency versus variability across settings. We used dynamic stochastic actor-based models to analyze five waves of friendship network data across sixth through ninth grades for a large sample of U.S. adolescents. Our sample included two successive grade cohorts of youth in 26 school districts participating in the PROSPER study, yielding 51 longitudinal social networks based on respondents’ friendship nominations. For all three self-reported antisocial behaviors, we found evidence of both peer influence and selection processes tied to antisocial behavior. There was little reliable variance in these processes across the networks, suggesting that the statistical imprecision of the peer influence and selection estimates in previous studies likely accounts for inconsistencies in results. Adolescent friendship networks play a strong role in shaping problem behavior, but problem behaviors also inform friendship choices. In addition to preferring friends with similar levels of problem behavior, adolescents tend to choose friends who engage in problem behaviors, thus creating broader diffusion. PMID:25943034

Integrated configurable equipment selection and line balancing for mass production with serial-parallel machining systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaïa, Olga; Dolgui, Alexandre; Guschinsky, Nikolai; Levin, Genrikh

2014-10-01

Solving equipment selection and line balancing problems together allows better line configurations to be reached and avoids local optimal solutions. This article considers jointly these two decision problems for mass production lines with serial-parallel workplaces. This study was motivated by the design of production lines based on machines with rotary or mobile tables. Nevertheless, the results are more general and can be applied to assembly and production lines with similar structures. The designers' objectives and the constraints are studied in order to suggest a relevant mathematical model and an efficient optimization approach to solve it. A real case study is used to validate the model and the developed approach.

Modeling surgical tool selection patterns as a "traveling salesman problem" for optimizing a modular surgical tool system.

PubMed

Nelson, Carl A; Miller, David J; Oleynikov, Dmitry

2008-01-01

As modular systems come into the forefront of robotic telesurgery, streamlining the process of selecting surgical tools becomes an important consideration. This paper presents a method for optimal queuing of tools in modular surgical tool systems, based on patterns in tool-use sequences, in order to minimize time spent changing tools. The solution approach is to model the set of tools as a graph, with tool-change frequency expressed as edge weights in the graph, and to solve the Traveling Salesman Problem for the graph. In a set of simulations, this method has shown superior performance at optimizing tool arrangements for streamlining surgical procedures.

Analysis of the Efficacy of an Intervention to Improve Parent-Adolescent Problem Solving

PubMed Central

Semeniuk, Yulia Yuriyivna; Brown, Roger L.; Riesch, Susan K.

2016-01-01

We conducted a two-group longitudinal partially nested randomized controlled trial to examine whether young adolescent youth-parent dyads participating in Mission Possible: Parents and Kids Who Listen, in contrast to a comparison group, would demonstrate improved problem solving skill. The intervention is based on the Circumplex Model and Social Problem Solving Theory. The Circumplex Model posits that families who are balanced, that is characterized by high cohesion and flexibility and open communication, function best. Social Problem Solving Theory informs the process and skills of problem solving. The Conditional Latent Growth Modeling analysis revealed no statistically significant differences in problem solving among the final sample of 127 dyads in the intervention and comparison groups. Analyses of effect sizes indicated large magnitude group effects for selected scales for youth and dyads portraying a potential for efficacy and identifying for whom the intervention may be efficacious if study limitations and lessons learned were addressed. PMID:26936844

An Expanded Lateral Interactive Clonal Selection Algorithm and Its Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shangce; Dai, Hongwei; Zhang, Jianchen; Tang, Zheng

Based on the clonal selection principle proposed by Burnet, in the immune response process there is no crossover of genetic material between members of the repertoire, i. e., there is no knowledge communication during different elite pools in the previous clonal selection models. As a result, the search performance of these models is ineffective. To solve this problem, inspired by the concept of the idiotypic network theory, an expanded lateral interactive clonal selection algorithm (LICS) is put forward. In LICS, an antibody is matured not only through the somatic hypermutation and the receptor editing from the B cell, but also through the stimuli from other antibodies. The stimuli is realized by memorizing some common gene segment on the idiotypes, based on which a lateral interactive receptor editing operator is also introduced. Then, LICS is applied to several benchmark instances of the traveling salesman problem. Simulation results show the efficiency and robustness of LICS when compared to other traditional algorithms.

Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm Concepts Using Model Problems. Part 2; Multi-Objective Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holst, Terry L.; Pulliam, Thomas H.

2003-01-01

A genetic algorithm approach suitable for solving multi-objective optimization problems is described and evaluated using a series of simple model problems. Several new features including a binning selection algorithm and a gene-space transformation procedure are included. The genetic algorithm is suitable for finding pareto optimal solutions in search spaces that are defined by any number of genes and that contain any number of local extrema. Results indicate that the genetic algorithm optimization approach is flexible in application and extremely reliable, providing optimal results for all optimization problems attempted. The binning algorithm generally provides pareto front quality enhancements and moderate convergence efficiency improvements for most of the model problems. The gene-space transformation procedure provides a large convergence efficiency enhancement for problems with non-convoluted pareto fronts and a degradation in efficiency for problems with convoluted pareto fronts. The most difficult problems --multi-mode search spaces with a large number of genes and convoluted pareto fronts-- require a large number of function evaluations for GA convergence, but always converge.

VARIABLE SELECTION FOR REGRESSION MODELS WITH MISSING DATA

PubMed Central

Garcia, Ramon I.; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Zhu, Hongtu

2009-01-01

We consider the variable selection problem for a class of statistical models with missing data, including missing covariate and/or response data. We investigate the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) and adaptive LASSO and propose a unified model selection and estimation procedure for use in the presence of missing data. We develop a computationally attractive algorithm for simultaneously optimizing the penalized likelihood function and estimating the penalty parameters. Particularly, we propose to use a model selection criterion, called the ICQ statistic, for selecting the penalty parameters. We show that the variable selection procedure based on ICQ automatically and consistently selects the important covariates and leads to efficient estimates with oracle properties. The methodology is very general and can be applied to numerous situations involving missing data, from covariates missing at random in arbitrary regression models to nonignorably missing longitudinal responses and/or covariates. Simulations are given to demonstrate the methodology and examine the finite sample performance of the variable selection procedures. Melanoma data from a cancer clinical trial is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. PMID:20336190

Product-line selection and pricing with remanufacturing under availability constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aras, Necati; Esenduran, G.÷k.‡e.; Altinel, I. Kuban

2004-12-01

Product line selection and pricing are two crucial decisions for the profitability of a manufacturing firm. Remanufacturing, on the other hand, may be a profitable strategy that captures the remaining value in used products. In this paper we develop a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model form the perspective of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). The objective of the OEM is to select products to manufacture and remanufacture among a set of given alternatives and simultaneously determine their prices so as to maximize its profit. It is assumed that the probability a customer selects a product is proportional to its utility and inversely proportional to its price. The utility of a product is an increasing function of its perceived quality. In our base model, products are discriminated by their unit production costs and utilities. We also analyze a case where remanufacturing is limited by the available quantity of collected remanufacturable products. We show that the resulting problem is decomposed into the pricing and product line selection subproblems. Pricing problem is solved by a variant of the simplex search procedure which can also handle constraints, while complete enumeration and a genetic algorithm are used for the solution of the product line selection problem. A number of experiments are carried out to identify conditions under which it is economically viable for the firm to sell remanufactured products. We also determine the optimal utility and unit production cost values of a remanufactured product, which maximizes the total profit of the OEM.

The Self-Adapting Focused Review System. Probability sampling of medical records to monitor utilization and quality of care.

PubMed

Ash, A; Schwartz, M; Payne, S M; Restuccia, J D

1990-11-01

Medical record review is increasing in importance as the need to identify and monitor utilization and quality of care problems grow. To conserve resources, reviews are usually performed on a subset of cases. If judgment is used to identify subgroups for review, this raises the following questions: How should subgroups be determined, particularly since the locus of problems can change over time? What standard of comparison should be used in interpreting rates of problems found in subgroups? How can population problem rates be estimated from observed subgroup rates? How can the bias be avoided that arises because reviewers know that selected cases are suspected of having problems? How can changes in problem rates over time be interpreted when evaluating intervention programs? Simple random sampling, an alternative to subgroup review, overcomes the problems implied by these questions but is inefficient. The Self-Adapting Focused Review System (SAFRS), introduced and described here, provides an adaptive approach to record selection that is based upon model-weighted probability sampling. It retains the desirable inferential properties of random sampling while allowing reviews to be concentrated on cases currently thought most likely to be problematic. Model development and evaluation are illustrated using hospital data to predict inappropriate admissions.

Variable Selection for Nonparametric Quantile Regression via Smoothing Spline AN OVA

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Yen; Bondell, Howard; Zhang, Hao Helen; Zou, Hui

2014-01-01

Quantile regression provides a more thorough view of the effect of covariates on a response. Nonparametric quantile regression has become a viable alternative to avoid restrictive parametric assumption. The problem of variable selection for quantile regression is challenging, since important variables can influence various quantiles in different ways. We tackle the problem via regularization in the context of smoothing spline ANOVA models. The proposed sparse nonparametric quantile regression (SNQR) can identify important variables and provide flexible estimates for quantiles. Our numerical study suggests the promising performance of the new procedure in variable selection and function estimation. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. PMID:24554792

Wolves, dogs, rearing and reinforcement: complex interactions underlying species differences in training and problem-solving performance.

PubMed

Frank, Harry

2011-11-01

Frank and Frank et al. (1982-1987) administered a series of age-graded training and problem-solving tasks to samples of Eastern timber wolf (C. lupus lycaon) and Alaskan Malamute (C. familiaris) pups to test Frank's (Zeitschrift für Tierpsychologie 53:389-399, 1980) model of the evolution of information processing under conditions of natural and artificial selection. Results confirmed the model's prediction that wolves should perform better than dogs on problem-solving tasks and that dogs should perform better than wolves on training tasks. Further data collected at the University of Connecticut in 1983 revealed a more complex and refined picture, indicating that species differences can be mediated by a number of factors influencing wolf performance, including socialization regimen (hand-rearing vs. mother-rearing), interactive effects of socialization on the efficacy of both rewards and punishments, and the flexibility to select learning strategies that experimenters might not anticipate.

Kernel learning at the first level of inference.

PubMed

Cawley, Gavin C; Talbot, Nicola L C

2014-05-01

Kernel learning methods, whether Bayesian or frequentist, typically involve multiple levels of inference, with the coefficients of the kernel expansion being determined at the first level and the kernel and regularisation parameters carefully tuned at the second level, a process known as model selection. Model selection for kernel machines is commonly performed via optimisation of a suitable model selection criterion, often based on cross-validation or theoretical performance bounds. However, if there are a large number of kernel parameters, as for instance in the case of automatic relevance determination (ARD), there is a substantial risk of over-fitting the model selection criterion, resulting in poor generalisation performance. In this paper we investigate the possibility of learning the kernel, for the Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) classifier, at the first level of inference, i.e. parameter optimisation. The kernel parameters and the coefficients of the kernel expansion are jointly optimised at the first level of inference, minimising a training criterion with an additional regularisation term acting on the kernel parameters. The key advantage of this approach is that the values of only two regularisation parameters need be determined in model selection, substantially alleviating the problem of over-fitting the model selection criterion. The benefits of this approach are demonstrated using a suite of synthetic and real-world binary classification benchmark problems, where kernel learning at the first level of inference is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional approach, improves on our previous work (Cawley and Talbot, 2007) and is competitive with Multiple Kernel Learning approaches, but with reduced computational expense. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compilation of a near-infrared library for the construction of quantitative models of amoxicillin and potassium clavulanate oral dosage forms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Wen-bo; Chong, Xiao-meng; Wang, Yan; Hu, Chang-qin

2018-05-01

The accuracy of NIR quantitative models depends on calibration samples with concentration variability. Conventional sample collecting methods have some shortcomings especially the time-consuming which remains a bottleneck in the application of NIR models for Process Analytical Technology (PAT) control. A study was performed to solve the problem of sample selection collection for construction of NIR quantitative models. Amoxicillin and potassium clavulanate oral dosage forms were used as examples. The aim was to find a normal approach to rapidly construct NIR quantitative models using an NIR spectral library based on the idea of a universal model [2021]. The NIR spectral library of amoxicillin and potassium clavulanate oral dosage forms was defined and consisted of spectra of 377 batches of samples produced by 26 domestic pharmaceutical companies, including tablets, dispersible tablets, chewable tablets, oral suspensions, and granules. The correlation coefficient (rT) was used to indicate the similarities of the spectra. The samples’ calibration sets were selected from a spectral library according to the median rT of the samples to be analyzed. The rT of the samples selected was close to the median rT. The difference in rT of those samples was 1.0% to 1.5%. We concluded that sample selection is not a problem when constructing NIR quantitative models using a spectral library versus conventional methods of determining universal models. The sample spectra with a suitable concentration range in the NIR models were collected quickly. In addition, the models constructed through this method were more easily targeted.

Automated sample plan selection for OPC modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casati, Nathalie; Gabrani, Maria; Viswanathan, Ramya; Bayraktar, Zikri; Jaiswal, Om; DeMaris, David; Abdo, Amr Y.; Oberschmidt, James; Krause, Andreas

2014-03-01

It is desired to reduce the time required to produce metrology data for calibration of Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) models and also maintain or improve the quality of the data collected with regard to how well that data represents the types of patterns that occur in real circuit designs. Previous work based on clustering in geometry and/or image parameter space has shown some benefit over strictly manual or intuitive selection, but leads to arbitrary pattern exclusion or selection which may not be the best representation of the product. Forming the pattern selection as an optimization problem, which co-optimizes a number of objective functions reflecting modelers' insight and expertise, has shown to produce models with equivalent quality to the traditional plan of record (POR) set but in a less time.

Word Fluency: A Task Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laine, Matti

It is suggested that models of human problem solving are useful in the analysis of word fluency (WF) test performance. In problem-solving terms, WF tasks would require the subject to define and clarify the conditions of the task (task acquisition), select and employ appropriate strategies, and monitor one's performance. In modern neuropsychology,…

The effect of prenatal care on birthweight: a full-information maximum likelihood approach.

PubMed

Rous, Jeffrey J; Jewell, R Todd; Brown, Robert W

2004-03-01

This paper uses a full-information maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the Discrete Factor Method, to estimate the relationship between birthweight and prenatal care. This technique controls for the potential biases surrounding both the sample selection of the pregnancy-resolution decision and the endogeneity of prenatal care. In addition, we use the actual number of prenatal care visits; other studies have normally measured prenatal care as the month care is initiated. We estimate a birthweight production function using 1993 data from the US state of Texas. The results underscore the importance of correcting for estimation problems. Specifically, a model that does not control for sample selection and endogeneity overestimates the benefit of an additional visit for women who have relatively few visits. This overestimation may indicate 'positive fetal selection,' i.e., women who did not abort may have healthier babies. Also, a model that does not control for self-selection and endogenity predicts that past 17 visits, an additional visit leads to lower birthweight, while a model that corrects for these estimation problems predicts a positive effect for additional visits. This result shows the effect of mothers with less healthy fetuses making more prenatal care visits, known as 'adverse selection' in prenatal care. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Systematic Treatment Selection (STS): A Review and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Tam T.; Bertoni, Matteo; Charvat, Mylea; Gheytanchi, Anahita; Beutler, Larry E.

2007-01-01

Systematic Treatment Selection (STS) is a form of technical eclectism that develops and plans treatments using empirically founded principles of psychotherapy. It is a model that provides systematic guidelines for the utilization of different psychotherapeutic strategies based on patient qualities and problem characteristics. Historically, it…

Asymmetric bagging and feature selection for activities prediction of drug molecules.

PubMed

Li, Guo-Zheng; Meng, Hao-Hua; Lu, Wen-Cong; Yang, Jack Y; Yang, Mary Qu

2008-05-28

Activities of drug molecules can be predicted by QSAR (quantitative structure activity relationship) models, which overcomes the disadvantages of high cost and long cycle by employing the traditional experimental method. With the fact that the number of drug molecules with positive activity is rather fewer than that of negatives, it is important to predict molecular activities considering such an unbalanced situation. Here, asymmetric bagging and feature selection are introduced into the problem and asymmetric bagging of support vector machines (asBagging) is proposed on predicting drug activities to treat the unbalanced problem. At the same time, the features extracted from the structures of drug molecules affect prediction accuracy of QSAR models. Therefore, a novel algorithm named PRIFEAB is proposed, which applies an embedded feature selection method to remove redundant and irrelevant features for asBagging. Numerical experimental results on a data set of molecular activities show that asBagging improve the AUC and sensitivity values of molecular activities and PRIFEAB with feature selection further helps to improve the prediction ability. Asymmetric bagging can help to improve prediction accuracy of activities of drug molecules, which can be furthermore improved by performing feature selection to select relevant features from the drug molecules data sets.

Adaptive Modeling Procedure Selection by Data Perturbation.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongli; Shen, Xiaotong

2015-10-01

Many procedures have been developed to deal with the high-dimensional problem that is emerging in various business and economics areas. To evaluate and compare these procedures, modeling uncertainty caused by model selection and parameter estimation has to be assessed and integrated into a modeling process. To do this, a data perturbation method estimates the modeling uncertainty inherited in a selection process by perturbing the data. Critical to data perturbation is the size of perturbation, as the perturbed data should resemble the original dataset. To account for the modeling uncertainty, we derive the optimal size of perturbation, which adapts to the data, the model space, and other relevant factors in the context of linear regression. On this basis, we develop an adaptive data-perturbation method that, unlike its nonadaptive counterpart, performs well in different situations. This leads to a data-adaptive model selection method. Both theoretical and numerical analysis suggest that the data-adaptive model selection method adapts to distinct situations in that it yields consistent model selection and optimal prediction, without knowing which situation exists a priori. The proposed method is applied to real data from the commodity market and outperforms its competitors in terms of price forecasting accuracy.

Optimisation algorithms for ECG data compression.

PubMed

Haugland, D; Heber, J G; Husøy, J H

1997-07-01

The use of exact optimisation algorithms for compressing digital electrocardiograms (ECGs) is demonstrated. As opposed to traditional time-domain methods, which use heuristics to select a small subset of representative signal samples, the problem of selecting the subset is formulated in rigorous mathematical terms. This approach makes it possible to derive algorithms guaranteeing the smallest possible reconstruction error when a bounded selection of signal samples is interpolated. The proposed model resembles well-known network models and is solved by a cubic dynamic programming algorithm. When applied to standard test problems, the algorithm produces a compressed representation for which the distortion is about one-half of that obtained by traditional time-domain compression techniques at reasonable compression ratios. This illustrates that, in terms of the accuracy of decoded signals, existing time-domain heuristics for ECG compression may be far from what is theoretically achievable. The paper is an attempt to bridge this gap.

Mental health selection and income support dynamics: multiple spell discrete-time survival analyses of welfare receipt.

PubMed

Kiely, Kim M; Butterworth, Peter

2014-04-01

The higher occurrence of common psychiatric disorders among welfare recipients has been attributed to health selection, social causation and underlying vulnerability. The aims of this study were to test for the selection effects of mental health problems on entry and re-entry to working-age welfare payments in respect to single parenthood, unemployment and disability. Nationally representative longitudinal data were drawn from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Multiple spell discrete-time survival analyses were conducted using multinomial logistic regression models to test if pre-existing mental health problems predicted transitions to welfare. Analyses were stratified by sex and multivariate adjusted for mental health problems, father's occupation, socioeconomic position, marital status, employment history, smoking status and alcohol consumption, physical function and financial hardship. All covariates were modelled as either lagged effects or when a respondent was first observed to be at risk of income support. Mental health problems were associated with increased risk of entry and re-entry to disability, unemployment and single parenting payments for women, and disability and unemployment payments for men. These associations were attenuated but remained significant after adjusting for contemporaneous risk factors. Although we do not control for reciprocal causation, our findings are consistent with a health selection hypothesis and indicate that mental illness may be a contributing factor to later receipt of different types of welfare payments. We argue that mental health warrants consideration in the design and targeting of social and economic policies.

Variance Component Selection With Applications to Microbiome Taxonomic Data.

PubMed

Zhai, Jing; Kim, Juhyun; Knox, Kenneth S; Twigg, Homer L; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin J

2018-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled population-based studies of the role of the human microbiome in disease etiology and exposure response. Microbiome data are summarized as counts or composition of the bacterial taxa at different taxonomic levels. An important problem is to identify the bacterial taxa that are associated with a response. One method is to test the association of specific taxon with phenotypes in a linear mixed effect model, which incorporates phylogenetic information among bacterial communities. Another type of approaches consider all taxa in a joint model and achieves selection via penalization method, which ignores phylogenetic information. In this paper, we consider regression analysis by treating bacterial taxa at different level as multiple random effects. For each taxon, a kernel matrix is calculated based on distance measures in the phylogenetic tree and acts as one variance component in the joint model. Then taxonomic selection is achieved by the lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) penalty on variance components. Our method integrates biological information into the variable selection problem and greatly improves selection accuracies. Simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our methods versus existing methods, for example, group-lasso. Finally, we apply our method to a longitudinal microbiome study of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected patients. We implement our method using the high performance computing language Julia. Software and detailed documentation are freely available at https://github.com/JingZhai63/VCselection.

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei

2012-01-01

An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2013-09-01

We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Cloud decision model for selecting sustainable energy crop based on linguistic intuitionistic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Hong-Gang; Wang, Jian-Qiang

2017-11-01

In recent years, sustainable energy crop has become an important energy development strategy topic in many countries. Selecting the most sustainable energy crop is a significant problem that must be addressed during any biofuel production process. The focus of this study is the development of an innovative multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method to handle sustainable energy crop selection problems. Given that various uncertain data are encountered in the evaluation of sustainable energy crops, linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (LIFNs) are introduced to present the information necessary to the evaluation process. Processing qualitative concepts requires the effective support of reliable tools; then, a cloud model can be used to deal with linguistic intuitionistic information. First, LIFNs are converted and a novel concept of linguistic intuitionistic cloud (LIC) is proposed. The operations, score function and similarity measurement of the LICs are defined. Subsequently, the linguistic intuitionistic cloud density-prioritised weighted Heronian mean operator is developed, which served as the basis for the construction of an applicable MCDM model for sustainable energy crop selection. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the proposed method, and its feasibility and validity are further verified by comparing it with other existing methods.

A Procedure for Extending Input Selection Algorithms to Low Quality Data in Modelling Problems with Application to the Automatic Grading of Uploaded Assignments

PubMed Central

Otero, José; Palacios, Ana; Suárez, Rosario; Junco, Luis

2014-01-01

When selecting relevant inputs in modeling problems with low quality data, the ranking of the most informative inputs is also uncertain. In this paper, this issue is addressed through a new procedure that allows the extending of different crisp feature selection algorithms to vague data. The partial knowledge about the ordinal of each feature is modelled by means of a possibility distribution, and a ranking is hereby applied to sort these distributions. It will be shown that this technique makes the most use of the available information in some vague datasets. The approach is demonstrated in a real-world application. In the context of massive online computer science courses, methods are sought for automatically providing the student with a qualification through code metrics. Feature selection methods are used to find the metrics involved in the most meaningful predictions. In this study, 800 source code files, collected and revised by the authors in classroom Computer Science lectures taught between 2013 and 2014, are analyzed with the proposed technique, and the most relevant metrics for the automatic grading task are discussed. PMID:25114967

Inside the Mind of a Medicinal Chemist: The Role of Human Bias in Compound Prioritization during Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Kutchukian, Peter S.; Vasilyeva, Nadya Y.; Xu, Jordan; Lindvall, Mika K.; Dillon, Michael P.; Glick, Meir; Coley, John D.; Brooijmans, Natasja

2012-01-01

Medicinal chemists’ “intuition” is critical for success in modern drug discovery. Early in the discovery process, chemists select a subset of compounds for further research, often from many viable candidates. These decisions determine the success of a discovery campaign, and ultimately what kind of drugs are developed and marketed to the public. Surprisingly little is known about the cognitive aspects of chemists’ decision-making when they prioritize compounds. We investigate 1) how and to what extent chemists simplify the problem of identifying promising compounds, 2) whether chemists agree with each other about the criteria used for such decisions, and 3) how accurately chemists report the criteria they use for these decisions. Chemists were surveyed and asked to select chemical fragments that they would be willing to develop into a lead compound from a set of ∼4,000 available fragments. Based on each chemist’s selections, computational classifiers were built to model each chemist’s selection strategy. Results suggest that chemists greatly simplified the problem, typically using only 1–2 of many possible parameters when making their selections. Although chemists tended to use the same parameters to select compounds, differing value preferences for these parameters led to an overall lack of consensus in compound selections. Moreover, what little agreement there was among the chemists was largely in what fragments were undesirable. Furthermore, chemists were often unaware of the parameters (such as compound size) which were statistically significant in their selections, and overestimated the number of parameters they employed. A critical evaluation of the problem space faced by medicinal chemists and cognitive models of categorization were especially useful in understanding the low consensus between chemists. PMID:23185259

Assessing the role of memory in preschoolers' performance on episodic foresight tasks.

PubMed

Atance, Cristina M; Sommerville, Jessica A

2014-01-01

A total of 48 preschoolers (ages 3, 4, and 5) received four tasks modelled after prior work designed to assess the development of "episodic foresight". For each task, children encountered a problem in one room and, after a brief delay, were given the opportunity in a second room to select an item to solve the problem. Importantly, after selecting an item, children were queried about their memory for the problem. Age-related changes were found both in children's ability to select the correct item and their ability to remember the problem. However, when we controlled for children's memory for the problem, there were no longer significant age-related changes on the item choice measure. These findings suggest that age-related changes in children's performance on these tasks are driven by improvements in children's memory versus improvements in children's future-oriented thinking or "foresight" per se. Our results have important implications for how best to structure tasks to measure children's episodic foresight, and also for the relative role of memory in this task and in episodic foresight more broadly.

Selectivity in early prosocial behavior

PubMed Central

Kuhlmeier, Valerie A.; Dunfield, Kristen A.; O’Neill, Amy C.

2014-01-01

Prosocial behavior requires expenditure of personal resources for the benefit of others, a fact that creates a “problem” when considering the evolution of prosociality. Models that address this problem have been developed, with emphasis typically placed on reciprocity. One model considers the advantages of being selective in terms of one’s allocation of prosocial behavior so as to improve the chance that one will be benefitted in return. In this review paper, we first summarize this “partner choice” model and then focus on prosocial development in the preschool years, where we make the case for selective partner choice in early instances of human prosocial behavior. PMID:25120526

Support interference of wind tunnel models: A selective annotated bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. H.; Gloss, B. B.

1981-01-01

This bibliography, with abstracts, consists of 143 citations arranged in chronological order by dates of publication. Selection of the citations was made for their relevance to the problems involved in understanding or avoiding support interference in wind tunnel testing throughout the Mach number range. An author index is included.

Support interference of wind tunnel models: A selective annotated bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. H.; Lawing, P. L.

1984-01-01

This bibliography, with abstracts, consists of 143 citations arranged in chronological order by dates of publication. Selection of the citations was made for their relevance to the problems involved in understanding or avoiding support interference in wind tunnel testing throughout the Mach number range. An author index is included.

Electronic Performance Support Systems: Comparison of Types of Integration Levels on Performance Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Sharon A.

2013-01-01

Selecting appropriate performance improvement interventions is a critical component of a comprehensive model of performance improvement. Intervention selection is an interconnected process involving analysis of an organization's environment, definition of the performance problem, and identification of a performance gap and identification of causal…

Perceptual-Motor and Cognitive Performance Task-Battery for Pilot Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

processing. Basic researchers in cognitive phychology have become discouraged with the inability of numerous models to consider and account for individual...attention in the use of cues in verbal problem-solving. Journal of Personality, 197?, 40, 226-241. Mensh, I. N. Pilot selection by phychological methods

Order Selection for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model Based on Multivariate Stepwise Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen

2017-12-01

An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.

Some aspects of algorithm performance and modeling in transient analysis of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelman, H. M.; Haftka, R. T.; Robinson, J. C.

1981-01-01

The status of an effort to increase the efficiency of calculating transient temperature fields in complex aerospace vehicle structures is described. The advantages and disadvantages of explicit algorithms with variable time steps, known as the GEAR package, is described. Four test problems, used for evaluating and comparing various algorithms, were selected and finite-element models of the configurations are described. These problems include a space shuttle frame component, an insulated cylinder, a metallic panel for a thermal protection system, and a model of the wing of the space shuttle orbiter. Results generally indicate a preference for implicit over explicit algorithms for solution of transient structural heat transfer problems when the governing equations are stiff (typical of many practical problems such as insulated metal structures).

Review: Optimization methods for groundwater modeling and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, William W.-G.

2015-09-01

Optimization methods have been used in groundwater modeling as well as for the planning and management of groundwater systems. This paper reviews and evaluates the various optimization methods that have been used for solving the inverse problem of parameter identification (estimation), experimental design, and groundwater planning and management. Various model selection criteria are discussed, as well as criteria used for model discrimination. The inverse problem of parameter identification concerns the optimal determination of model parameters using water-level observations. In general, the optimal experimental design seeks to find sampling strategies for the purpose of estimating the unknown model parameters. A typical objective of optimal conjunctive-use planning of surface water and groundwater is to minimize the operational costs of meeting water demand. The optimization methods include mathematical programming techniques such as linear programming, quadratic programming, dynamic programming, stochastic programming, nonlinear programming, and the global search algorithms such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, and tabu search. Emphasis is placed on groundwater flow problems as opposed to contaminant transport problems. A typical two-dimensional groundwater flow problem is used to explain the basic formulations and algorithms that have been used to solve the formulated optimization problems.

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

An investigation of the use of temporal decomposition in space mission scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bullington, Stanley E.; Narayanan, Venkat

1994-01-01

This research involves an examination of techniques for solving scheduling problems in long-duration space missions. The mission timeline is broken up into several time segments, which are then scheduled incrementally. Three methods are presented for identifying the activities that are to be attempted within these segments. The first method is a mathematical model, which is presented primarily to illustrate the structure of the temporal decomposition problem. Since the mathematical model is bound to be computationally prohibitive for realistic problems, two heuristic assignment procedures are also presented. The first heuristic method is based on dispatching rules for activity selection, and the second heuristic assigns performances of a model evenly over timeline segments. These heuristics are tested using a sample Space Station mission and a Spacelab mission. The results are compared with those obtained by scheduling the missions without any problem decomposition. The applicability of this approach to large-scale mission scheduling problems is also discussed.

Review of analytical models to stream depletion induced by pumping: Guide to model selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ching-Sheng; Yang, Tao; Yeh, Hund-Der

2018-06-01

Stream depletion due to groundwater extraction by wells may cause impact on aquatic ecosystem in streams, conflict over water rights, and contamination of water from irrigation wells near polluted streams. A variety of studies have been devoted to addressing the issue of stream depletion, but a fundamental framework for analytical modeling developed from aquifer viewpoint has not yet been found. This review shows key differences in existing models regarding the stream depletion problem and provides some guidelines for choosing a proper analytical model in solving the problem of concern. We introduce commonly used models composed of flow equations, boundary conditions, well representations and stream treatments for confined, unconfined, and leaky aquifers. They are briefly evaluated and classified according to six categories of aquifer type, flow dimension, aquifer domain, stream representation, stream channel geometry, and well type. Finally, we recommend promising analytical approaches that can solve stream depletion problem in reality with aquifer heterogeneity and irregular geometry of stream channel. Several unsolved stream depletion problems are also recommended.

Multi-scale textural feature extraction and particle swarm optimization based model selection for false positive reduction in mammography.

PubMed

Zyout, Imad; Czajkowska, Joanna; Grzegorzek, Marcin

2015-12-01

The high number of false positives and the resulting number of avoidable breast biopsies are the major problems faced by current mammography Computer Aided Detection (CAD) systems. False positive reduction is not only a requirement for mass but also for calcification CAD systems which are currently deployed for clinical use. This paper tackles two problems related to reducing the number of false positives in the detection of all lesions and masses, respectively. Firstly, textural patterns of breast tissue have been analyzed using several multi-scale textural descriptors based on wavelet and gray level co-occurrence matrix. The second problem addressed in this paper is the parameter selection and performance optimization. For this, we adopt a model selection procedure based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for selecting the most discriminative textural features and for strengthening the generalization capacity of the supervised learning stage based on a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. For evaluating the proposed methods, two sets of suspicious mammogram regions have been used. The first one, obtained from Digital Database for Screening Mammography (DDSM), contains 1494 regions (1000 normal and 494 abnormal samples). The second set of suspicious regions was obtained from database of Mammographic Image Analysis Society (mini-MIAS) and contains 315 (207 normal and 108 abnormal) samples. Results from both datasets demonstrate the efficiency of using PSO based model selection for optimizing both classifier hyper-parameters and parameters, respectively. Furthermore, the obtained results indicate the promising performance of the proposed textural features and more specifically, those based on co-occurrence matrix of wavelet image representation technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Student’s scheme in solving mathematics problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setyaningsih, Nining; Juniati, Dwi; Suwarsono

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate students’ scheme in solving mathematics problems. Scheme are data structures for representing the concepts stored in memory. In this study, we used it in solving mathematics problems, especially ratio and proportion topics. Scheme is related to problem solving that assumes that a system is developed in the human mind by acquiring a structure in which problem solving procedures are integrated with some concepts. The data were collected by interview and students’ written works. The results of this study revealed are students’ scheme in solving the problem of ratio and proportion as follows: (1) the content scheme, where students can describe the selected components of the problem according to their prior knowledge, (2) the formal scheme, where students can explain in construct a mental model based on components that have been selected from the problem and can use existing schemes to build planning steps, create something that will be used to solve problems and (3) the language scheme, where students can identify terms, or symbols of the components of the problem.Therefore, by using the different strategies to solve the problems, the students’ scheme in solving the ratio and proportion problems will also differ.

Detecting consistent patterns of directional adaptation using differential selection codon models.

PubMed

Parto, Sahar; Lartillot, Nicolas

2017-06-23

Phylogenetic codon models are often used to characterize the selective regimes acting on protein-coding sequences. Recent methodological developments have led to models explicitly accounting for the interplay between mutation and selection, by modeling the amino acid fitness landscape along the sequence. However, thus far, most of these models have assumed that the fitness landscape is constant over time. Fluctuations of the fitness landscape may often be random or depend on complex and unknown factors. However, some organisms may be subject to systematic changes in selective pressure, resulting in reproducible molecular adaptations across independent lineages subject to similar conditions. Here, we introduce a codon-based differential selection model, which aims to detect and quantify the fine-grained consistent patterns of adaptation at the protein-coding level, as a function of external conditions experienced by the organism under investigation. The model parameterizes the global mutational pressure, as well as the site- and condition-specific amino acid selective preferences. This phylogenetic model is implemented in a Bayesian MCMC framework. After validation with simulations, we applied our method to a dataset of HIV sequences from patients with known HLA genetic background. Our differential selection model detects and characterizes differentially selected coding positions specifically associated with two different HLA alleles. Our differential selection model is able to identify consistent molecular adaptations as a function of repeated changes in the environment of the organism. These models can be applied to many other problems, ranging from viral adaptation to evolution of life-history strategies in plants or animals.

Optimal Sampling to Provide User-Specific Climate Information.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panturat, Suwanna

The types of weather-related world problems which are of socio-economic importance selected in this study as representative of three different levels of user groups include: (i) a regional problem concerned with air pollution plumes which lead to acid rain in the north eastern United States, (ii) a state-level problem in the form of winter wheat production in Oklahoma, and (iii) an individual-level problem involving reservoir management given errors in rainfall estimation at Lake Ellsworth, upstream from Lawton, Oklahoma. The study is aimed at designing optimal sampling networks which are based on customer value systems and also abstracting from data sets that information which is most cost-effective in reducing the climate-sensitive aspects of a given user problem. Three process models being used in this study to interpret climate variability in terms of the variables of importance to the user comprise: (i) the HEFFTER-SAMSON diffusion model as the climate transfer function for acid rain, (ii) the CERES-MAIZE plant process model for winter wheat production and (iii) the AGEHYD streamflow model selected as "a black box" for reservoir management. A state-of-the-art Non Linear Program (NLP) algorithm for minimizing an objective function is employed to determine the optimal number and location of various sensors. Statistical quantities considered in determining sensor locations including Bayes Risk, the chi-squared value, the probability of the Type I error (alpha) and the probability of the Type II error (beta) and the noncentrality parameter delta^2. Moreover, the number of years required to detect a climate change resulting in a given bushel per acre change in mean wheat production is determined; the number of seasons of observations required to reduce the standard deviation of the error variance of the ambient sulfur dioxide to less than a certain percent of the mean is found; and finally the policy of maintaining pre-storm flood pools at selected levels is examined given information from the optimal sampling network as defined by the study.

Problem solving during artificial selection of self-replicating loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Hui-Hsien; Reggia, James A.

1998-05-01

Past cellular automata models of self-replication have generally done only one thing: replicate themselves. However, it has recently been demonstrated that such self-replicating structures can be programmed to also carry out a task during the replication process. Past models of this sort have been limited in that the “program” involved is copied unchanged from parent to child, so that each generation of replicants is executing exactly the same program on exactly the same data. Here we take a different approach in which each replicant receives a distinct partial solution that is modified during replication. Under artificial selection, replicants with promising solutions proliferate while those with failed solutions are lost. We show that this approach can be applied successfully to solve an NP-complete problem, the satisfiability problem. Bounds are given on the cellular space size and time needed to solve a given problem, and simulations demonstrate that this approach works effectively. These and other recent results raise the possibility of evolving self-replicating structures that have a simulated metabolism or that carry out useful tasks.

Shape and Reinforcement Optimization of Underground Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghabraie, Kazem; Xie, Yi Min; Huang, Xiaodong; Ren, Gang

Design of support system and selecting an optimum shape for the opening are two important steps in designing excavations in rock masses. Currently selecting the shape and support design are mainly based on designer's judgment and experience. Both of these problems can be viewed as material distribution problems where one needs to find the optimum distribution of a material in a domain. Topology optimization techniques have proved to be useful in solving these kinds of problems in structural design. Recently the application of topology optimization techniques in reinforcement design around underground excavations has been studied by some researchers. In this paper a three-phase material model will be introduced changing between normal rock, reinforced rock, and void. Using such a material model both problems of shape and reinforcement design can be solved together. A well-known topology optimization technique used in structural design is bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO). In this paper the BESO technique has been extended to simultaneously optimize the shape of the opening and the distribution of reinforcements. Validity and capability of the proposed approach have been investigated through some examples.

Research on filter’s parameter selection based on PROMETHEE method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hui-min; Wang, Hang-yu; Sun, Shi-yan

2018-03-01

The selection of filter’s parameters in target recognition was studied in this paper. The PROMETHEE method was applied to the optimization problem of Gabor filter parameters decision, the correspondence model of the elemental relation between two methods was established. The author took the identification of military target as an example, problem about the filter’s parameter decision was simulated and calculated by PROMETHEE. The result showed that using PROMETHEE method for the selection of filter’s parameters was more scientific. The human disturbance caused by the experts method and empirical method could be avoided by this way. The method can provide reference for the parameter configuration scheme decision of the filter.

Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen

2016-12-01

Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.

Testable solution of the cosmological constant and coincidence problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Douglas J.; Barrow, John D.

2011-02-01

We present a new solution to the cosmological constant (CC) and coincidence problems in which the observed value of the CC, Λ, is linked to other observable properties of the Universe. This is achieved by promoting the CC from a parameter that must be specified, to a field that can take many possible values. The observed value of Λ≈(9.3Gyrs)-2 [≈10-120 in Planck units] is determined by a new constraint equation which follows from the application of a causally restricted variation principle. When applied to our visible Universe, the model makes a testable prediction for the dimensionless spatial curvature of Ωk0=-0.0056(ζb/0.5), where ζb˜1/2 is a QCD parameter. Requiring that a classical history exist, our model determines the probability of observing a given Λ. The observed CC value, which we successfully predict, is typical within our model even before the effects of anthropic selection are included. When anthropic selection effects are accounted for, we find that the observed coincidence between tΛ=Λ-1/2 and the age of the Universe, tU, is a typical occurrence in our model. In contrast to multiverse explanations of the CC problems, our solution is independent of the choice of a prior weighting of different Λ values and does not rely on anthropic selection effects. Our model includes no unnatural small parameters and does not require the introduction of new dynamical scalar fields or modifications to general relativity, and it can be tested by astronomical observations in the near future.

Planning and design of studies for river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowlin, Jon O.; Brown, W.M.; Smith, L.H.; Hoffman, R.J.

1980-01-01

The objectives of the Geological Survey 's river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins in California and Nevada are to identify the significant resource management problems; to develop techniques to assess the problems; and to effectively communicate results to responsible managers. Six major elements of the assessment to be completed by October 1981 are (1) a detailing of the legal, institutional, and structural development of water resources in the basins and the current problems and conflicts; (2) a compilation and synthesis of the physical hydrology of the basins; (3) development of a special workshop approach to involve local management in the direction and results of the study; (4) development of a comprehensive streamflow model emcompassing both basins to provide a quantitative hydrologic framework for water-quality analysis; (5) development of a water-quality transport model for selected constituents and characteristics on selected reaches of the Truckee River; and (6) a detailed examination of selected fish habitats for specified reaches of the Truckee River. Progress will be periodically reported in reports, maps, computer data files, mathematical models, a bibliography, and public presentations. In building a basic framework to develop techniques, the basins were viewed as a single hydrologic unit because of interconnecting diversion structures. The framework comprises 13 hydrographic subunits to facilitate modeling and sampling. Several significant issues beyond the scope of the assessment were considered as supplementary proposals; water-quality loadings in Truckee and Carson Rivers, urban runoff in Reno and management alternatives, and a model of limnological processes in Lahontan Reservoir. (USGS)

Kullback-Leibler information function and the sequential selection of experiments to discriminate among several linear models. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.

1972-01-01

A sequential adaptive experimental design procedure for a related problem is studied. It is assumed that a finite set of potential linear models relating certain controlled variables to an observed variable is postulated, and that exactly one of these models is correct. The problem is to sequentially design most informative experiments so that the correct model equation can be determined with as little experimentation as possible. Discussion includes: structure of the linear models; prerequisite distribution theory; entropy functions and the Kullback-Leibler information function; the sequential decision procedure; and computer simulation results. An example of application is given.

Systematic optimization model and algorithm for binding sequence selection in computational enzyme design

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaoqiang; Han, Kehang; Zhu, Yushan

2013-01-01

A systematic optimization model for binding sequence selection in computational enzyme design was developed based on the transition state theory of enzyme catalysis and graph-theoretical modeling. The saddle point on the free energy surface of the reaction system was represented by catalytic geometrical constraints, and the binding energy between the active site and transition state was minimized to reduce the activation energy barrier. The resulting hyperscale combinatorial optimization problem was tackled using a novel heuristic global optimization algorithm, which was inspired and tested by the protein core sequence selection problem. The sequence recapitulation tests on native active sites for two enzyme catalyzed hydrolytic reactions were applied to evaluate the predictive power of the design methodology. The results of the calculation show that most of the native binding sites can be successfully identified if the catalytic geometrical constraints and the structural motifs of the substrate are taken into account. Reliably predicting active site sequences may have significant implications for the creation of novel enzymes that are capable of catalyzing targeted chemical reactions. PMID:23649589

Models Used to Select Strategic Planning Experts for High Technology Productions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharova, Alexandra A.; Grigorjeva, Antonina A.; Tseplit, Anna P.; Ozgogov, Evgenij V.

2016-04-01

The article deals with the problems and specific aspects in organizing works of experts involved in assessment of companies that manufacture complex high-technology products. A model is presented that is intended for evaluating competences of experts in individual functional areas of expertise. Experts are selected to build a group on the basis of tables used to determine a competence level. An expert selection model based on fuzzy logic is proposed and additional requirements for the expert group composition can be taken into account, with regard to the needed quality and competence related preferences of decision-makers. A Web-based information system model is developed for the interaction between experts and decision-makers when carrying out online examinations.

A SVM framework for fault detection of the braking system in a high speed train

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jie; Li, Yan-Fu; Zio, Enrico

2017-03-01

In April 2015, the number of operating High Speed Trains (HSTs) in the world has reached 3603. An efficient, effective and very reliable braking system is evidently very critical for trains running at a speed around 300 km/h. Failure of a highly reliable braking system is a rare event and, consequently, informative recorded data on fault conditions are scarce. This renders the fault detection problem a classification problem with highly unbalanced data. In this paper, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework, including feature selection, feature vector selection, model construction and decision boundary optimization, is proposed for tackling this problem. Feature vector selection can largely reduce the data size and, thus, the computational burden. The constructed model is a modified version of the least square SVM, in which a higher cost is assigned to the error of classification of faulty conditions than the error of classification of normal conditions. The proposed framework is successfully validated on a number of public unbalanced datasets. Then, it is applied for the fault detection of braking systems in HST: in comparison with several SVM approaches for unbalanced datasets, the proposed framework gives better results.

A robust multi-objective global supplier selection model under currency fluctuation and price discount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarindast, Atousa; Seyed Hosseini, Seyed Mohamad; Pishvaee, Mir Saman

2017-06-01

Robust supplier selection problem, in a scenario-based approach has been proposed, when the demand and exchange rates are subject to uncertainties. First, a deterministic multi-objective mixed integer linear programming is developed; then, the robust counterpart of the proposed mixed integer linear programming is presented using the recent extension in robust optimization theory. We discuss decision variables, respectively, by a two-stage stochastic planning model, a robust stochastic optimization planning model which integrates worst case scenario in modeling approach and finally by equivalent deterministic planning model. The experimental study is carried out to compare the performances of the three models. Robust model resulted in remarkable cost saving and it illustrated that to cope with such uncertainties, we should consider them in advance in our planning. In our case study different supplier were selected due to this uncertainties and since supplier selection is a strategic decision, it is crucial to consider these uncertainties in planning approach.

Optimizing Requirements Decisions with KEYS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jalali, Omid; Menzies, Tim; Feather, Martin

2008-01-01

Recent work with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has allowed for external access to five of JPL's real-world requirements models, anonymized to conceal proprietary information, but retaining their computational nature. Experimentation with these models, reported herein, demonstrates a dramatic speedup in the computations performed on them. These models have a well defined goal: select mitigations that retire risks which, in turn, increases the number of attainable requirements. Such a non-linear optimization is a well-studied problem. However identification of not only (a) the optimal solution(s) but also (b) the key factors leading to them is less well studied. Our technique, called KEYS, shows a rapid way of simultaneously identifying the solutions and their key factors. KEYS improves on prior work by several orders of magnitude. Prior experiments with simulated annealing or treatment learning took tens of minutes to hours to terminate. KEYS runs much faster than that; e.g for one model, KEYS ran 13,000 times faster than treatment learning (40 minutes versus 0.18 seconds). Processing these JPL models is a non-linear optimization problem: the fewest mitigations must be selected while achieving the most requirements. Non-linear optimization is a well studied problem. With this paper, we challenge other members of the PROMISE community to improve on our results with other techniques.

Selection of Authentic Modelling Practices as Contexts for Chemistry Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prins, Gjalt T.; Bulte, Astrid M. W.; van Driel, Jan H.; Pilot, Albert

2008-01-01

In science education, students should come to understand the nature and significance of models. In the case of chemistry education it is argued that the present use of models is often not meaningful from the students' perspective. A strategy to overcome this problem is to use an authentic chemical modelling practice as a context for a curriculum…

Analysis of the Efficacy of an Intervention to Improve Parent-Adolescent Problem Solving.

PubMed

Semeniuk, Yulia Yuriyivna; Brown, Roger L; Riesch, Susan K

2016-07-01

We conducted a two-group longitudinal partially nested randomized controlled trial to examine whether young adolescent youth-parent dyads participating in Mission Possible: Parents and Kids Who Listen, in contrast to a comparison group, would demonstrate improved problem-solving skill. The intervention is based on the Circumplex Model and Social Problem-Solving Theory. The Circumplex Model posits that families who are balanced, that is characterized by high cohesion and flexibility and open communication, function best. Social Problem-Solving Theory informs the process and skills of problem solving. The Conditional Latent Growth Modeling analysis revealed no statistically significant differences in problem solving among the final sample of 127 dyads in the intervention and comparison groups. Analyses of effect sizes indicated large magnitude group effects for selected scales for youth and dyads portraying a potential for efficacy and identifying for whom the intervention may be efficacious if study limitations and lessons learned were addressed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Multicriteria framework for selecting a process modelling language

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanavachi Moreira Campos, Ana Carolina; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2016-01-01

The choice of process modelling language can affect business process management (BPM) since each modelling language shows different features of a given process and may limit the ways in which a process can be described and analysed. However, choosing the appropriate modelling language for process modelling has become a difficult task because of the availability of a large number modelling languages and also due to the lack of guidelines on evaluating, and comparing languages so as to assist in selecting the most appropriate one. This paper proposes a framework for selecting a modelling language in accordance with the purposes of modelling. This framework is based on the semiotic quality framework (SEQUAL) for evaluating process modelling languages and a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach in order to select the most appropriate language for BPM. This study does not attempt to set out new forms of assessment and evaluation criteria, but does attempt to demonstrate how two existing approaches can be combined so as to solve the problem of selection of modelling language. The framework is described in this paper and then demonstrated by means of an example. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of using SEQUAL and MCDA in an integrated manner are discussed.

A hybrid CS-SA intelligent approach to solve uncertain dynamic facility layout problems considering dependency of demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslemipour, Ghorbanali

2018-07-01

This paper aims at proposing a quadratic assignment-based mathematical model to deal with the stochastic dynamic facility layout problem. In this problem, product demands are assumed to be dependent normally distributed random variables with known probability density function and covariance that change from period to period at random. To solve the proposed model, a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm is proposed by combining the simulated annealing and clonal selection algorithms. The proposed model and the hybrid algorithm are verified and validated using design of experiment and benchmark methods. The results show that the hybrid algorithm has an outstanding performance from both solution quality and computational time points of view. Besides, the proposed model can be used in both of the stochastic and deterministic situations.

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.

PubMed

Madden, M; Batey Pwj

1983-05-01

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.

Make or buy analysis model based on tolerance allocation to minimize manufacturing cost and fuzzy quality loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosyidi, C. N.; Puspitoingrum, W.; Jauhari, W. A.; Suhardi, B.; Hamada, K.

2016-02-01

The specification of tolerances has a significant impact on the quality of product and final production cost. The company should carefully pay attention to the component or product tolerance so they can produce a good quality product at the lowest cost. Tolerance allocation has been widely used to solve problem in selecting particular process or supplier. But before merely getting into the selection process, the company must first make a plan to analyse whether the component must be made in house (make), to be purchased from a supplier (buy), or used the combination of both. This paper discusses an optimization model of process and supplier selection in order to minimize the manufacturing costs and the fuzzy quality loss. This model can also be used to determine the allocation of components to the selected processes or suppliers. Tolerance, process capability and production capacity are three important constraints that affect the decision. Fuzzy quality loss function is used in this paper to describe the semantic of the quality, in which the product quality level is divided into several grades. The implementation of the proposed model has been demonstrated by solving a numerical example problem that used a simple assembly product which consists of three components. The metaheuristic approach were implemented to OptQuest software from Oracle Crystal Ball in order to obtain the optimal solution of the numerical example.

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2011-01-01

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation applications such as model-based diagnostic, controls, and life usage calculations. The advantage of the innovation is the significant reduction in estimation errors that it can provide relative to the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the model tuning parameter vector. Because this technique needs only to be performed during the system design process, it places no additional computation burden on the onboard Kalman filter implementation. The technique has been developed for aircraft engine onboard estimation applications, as this application typically presents an under-determined estimation problem. However, this generic technique could be applied to other industries using gas turbine engine technology.

Status of surface-water modeling in the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, Marshall E.; Yotsukura, Nobuhiro

1979-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is active in the development and use of models for the analysis of various types of surface-water problems. Types of problems for which models have been, or are being developed, include categories such as the following: (1)specialized hydraulics, (2)flow routing in streams, estuaries, lakes, and reservoirs, (3) sedimentation, (4) transport of physical, chemical, and biological constituents, (5) surface exchange of heat and mass, (6) coupled stream-aquifer flow systems, (7) physical hydrology for rainfall-runoff relations, stream-system simulations, channel geometry, and water quality, (8) statistical hydrology for synthetic streamflows, floods, droughts, storage, and water quality, (9) management and operation problems, and (10) miscellaneous hydrologic problems. Following a brief review of activities prior to 1970, the current status of surface-water modeling is given as being in a developmental, verification, operational, or continued improvement phase. A list of recently published selected references, provides useful details on the characteristics of models.

The Child Outcomes of a Behavior Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, J. Ron; Hurley, Kristin Duppong; Synhorst, Lori; Epstein, Michael H.; Stage, Scott; Buckley, Jacquelyn

2009-01-01

Within 3-tier behavioral models, universal interventions are expected to prevent the onset of problem behavior in a majority of children altogether and to sustain improvements in child outcomes by the selected and indicated interventions. A cohort longitudinal design was used to assess the extent to which a 3-tier model achieves these expected…

Effect of the Implicit Combinatorial Model on Combinatorial Reasoning in Secondary School Pupils.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batanero, Carmen; And Others

1997-01-01

Elementary combinatorial problems may be classified into three different combinatorial models: (1) selection; (2) partition; and (3) distribution. The main goal of this research was to determine the effect of the implicit combinatorial model on pupils' combinatorial reasoning before and after instruction. Gives an analysis of variance of the…

Modeling Homophily over Time with an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popp, Danielle; Laursen, Brett; Kerr, Margaret; Stattin, Hakan; Burk, William J.

2008-01-01

Selection and socialization have been implicated in friendship homophily, but the relative contributions of each are difficult to measure simultaneously because of the nonindependent nature of the data. To address this problem, the authors applied a multiple-groups longitudinal actor-partner interdependence model (D. A. Kashy & D. A. Kenny,…

Classification of complex networks based on similarity of topological network features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attar, Niousha; Aliakbary, Sadegh

2017-09-01

Over the past few decades, networks have been widely used to model real-world phenomena. Real-world networks exhibit nontrivial topological characteristics and therefore, many network models are proposed in the literature for generating graphs that are similar to real networks. Network models reproduce nontrivial properties such as long-tail degree distributions or high clustering coefficients. In this context, we encounter the problem of selecting the network model that best fits a given real-world network. The need for a model selection method reveals the network classification problem, in which a target-network is classified into one of the candidate network models. In this paper, we propose a novel network classification method which is independent of the network size and employs an alignment-free metric of network comparison. The proposed method is based on supervised machine learning algorithms and utilizes the topological similarities of networks for the classification task. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to classification accuracy, time efficiency, and robustness to noise.

An investigation into electromagnetic force models: differences in global and local effects demonstrated by selected problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reich, Felix A.; Rickert, Wilhelm; Müller, Wolfgang H.

2018-03-01

This study investigates the implications of various electromagnetic force models in macroscopic situations. There is an ongoing academic discussion which model is "correct," i.e., generally applicable. Often, gedankenexperiments with light waves or photons are used in order to motivate certain models. In this work, three problems with bodies at the macroscopic scale are used for computing theoretical model-dependent predictions. Two aspects are considered, total forces between bodies and local deformations. By comparing with experimental data, insight is gained regarding the applicability of the models. First, the total force between two cylindrical magnets is computed. Then a spherical magnetostriction problem is considered to show different deformation predictions. As a third example focusing on local deformations, a droplet of silicone oil in castor oil is considered, placed in a homogeneous electric field. By using experimental data, some conclusions are drawn and further work is motivated.

A biologically inspired network design model.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoge; Adamatzky, Andrew; Chan, Felix T S; Deng, Yong; Yang, Hai; Yang, Xin-She; Tsompanas, Michail-Antisthenis I; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2015-06-04

A network design problem is to select a subset of links in a transport network that satisfy passengers or cargo transportation demands while minimizing the overall costs of the transportation. We propose a mathematical model of the foraging behaviour of slime mould P. polycephalum to solve the network design problem and construct optimal transport networks. In our algorithm, a traffic flow between any two cities is estimated using a gravity model. The flow is imitated by the model of the slime mould. The algorithm model converges to a steady state, which represents a solution of the problem. We validate our approach on examples of major transport networks in Mexico and China. By comparing networks developed in our approach with the man-made highways, networks developed by the slime mould, and a cellular automata model inspired by slime mould, we demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach.

A Biologically Inspired Network Design Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiaoge; Adamatzky, Andrew; Chan, Felix T.S.; Deng, Yong; Yang, Hai; Yang, Xin-She; Tsompanas, Michail-Antisthenis I.; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2015-01-01

A network design problem is to select a subset of links in a transport network that satisfy passengers or cargo transportation demands while minimizing the overall costs of the transportation. We propose a mathematical model of the foraging behaviour of slime mould P. polycephalum to solve the network design problem and construct optimal transport networks. In our algorithm, a traffic flow between any two cities is estimated using a gravity model. The flow is imitated by the model of the slime mould. The algorithm model converges to a steady state, which represents a solution of the problem. We validate our approach on examples of major transport networks in Mexico and China. By comparing networks developed in our approach with the man-made highways, networks developed by the slime mould, and a cellular automata model inspired by slime mould, we demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach. PMID:26041508

Using logic models in a community-based agricultural injury prevention project.

PubMed

Helitzer, Deborah; Willging, Cathleen; Hathorn, Gary; Benally, Jeannie

2009-01-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has long promoted the logic model as a useful tool in an evaluator's portfolio. Because a logic model supports a systematic approach to designing interventions, it is equally useful for program planners. Undertaken with community stakeholders, a logic model process articulates the underlying foundations of a particular programmatic effort and enhances program design and evaluation. Most often presented as sequenced diagrams or flow charts, logic models demonstrate relationships among the following components: statement of a problem, various causal and mitigating factors related to that problem, available resources to address the problem, theoretical foundations of the selected intervention, intervention goals and planned activities, and anticipated short- and long-term outcomes. This article describes a case example of how a logic model process was used to help community stakeholders on the Navajo Nation conceive, design, implement, and evaluate agricultural injury prevention projects.

A Systematic Approach to Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2009-01-01

A systematic approach for selecting an optimal suite of sensors for on-board aircraft gas turbine engine health estimation is presented. The methodology optimally chooses the engine sensor suite and the model tuning parameter vector to minimize the Kalman filter mean squared estimation error in the engine s health parameters or other unmeasured engine outputs. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem where there are more unknown system health parameters representing degradation than available sensor measurements. This paper presents the theoretical estimation error equations, and describes the optimization approach that is applied to select the sensors and model tuning parameters to minimize these errors. Two different model tuning parameter vector selection approaches are evaluated: the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuning parameters, and an alternative approach that selects tuning parameters as a linear combination of all health parameters. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented, and compared to those from an alternative sensor selection strategy.

Modification of the Integrated Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Model

PubMed Central

Nam, Jiho

2017-01-01

In 2012, the Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine proposed an objective and comprehensive physical diagnostic model to address quantification problems in the existing Sasang constitutional diagnostic method. However, certain issues have been raised regarding a revision of the proposed diagnostic model. In this paper, we propose various methodological approaches to address the problems of the previous diagnostic model. Firstly, more useful variables are selected in each component. Secondly, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is used to reduce multicollinearity without the modification of explanatory variables. Thirdly, proportions of SC types and age are considered to construct individual diagnostic models and classify the training set and the test set for reflecting the characteristics of the entire dataset. Finally, an integrated model is constructed with explanatory variables of individual diagnosis models. The proposed integrated diagnostic model significantly improves the sensitivities for both the male SY type (36.4% → 62.0%) and the female SE type (43.7% → 64.5%), which were areas of limitation of the previous integrated diagnostic model. The ideas of these new algorithms are expected to contribute not only to the scientific development of Sasang constitutional medicine in Korea but also to that of other diagnostic methods for traditional medicine. PMID:29317897

Performance of uncertainty quantification methodologies and linear solvers in cardiovascular simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Jongmin; Schiavazzi, Daniele; Marsden, Alison

2017-11-01

Cardiovascular simulations are increasingly used in clinical decision making, surgical planning, and disease diagnostics. Patient-specific modeling and simulation typically proceeds through a pipeline from anatomic model construction using medical image data to blood flow simulation and analysis. To provide confidence intervals on simulation predictions, we use an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze the effects of numerous uncertainties that stem from clinical data acquisition, modeling, material properties, and boundary condition selection. However, UQ poses a computational challenge requiring multiple evaluations of the Navier-Stokes equations in complex 3-D models. To achieve efficiency in UQ problems with many function evaluations, we implement and compare a range of iterative linear solver and preconditioning techniques in our flow solver. We then discuss applications to patient-specific cardiovascular simulation and how the problem/boundary condition formulation in the solver affects the selection of the most efficient linear solver. Finally, we discuss performance improvements in the context of uncertainty propagation. Support from National Institute of Health (R01 EB018302) is greatly appreciated.

Burner liner thermal-structural load modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maffeo, R.

1986-01-01

The software package Transfer Analysis Code to Interface Thermal/Structural Problems (TRANCITS) was developed. The TRANCITS code is used to interface temperature data between thermal and structural analytical models. The use of this transfer module allows the heat transfer analyst to select the thermal mesh density and thermal analysis code best suited to solve the thermal problem and gives the same freedoms to the stress analyst, without the efficiency penalties associated with common meshes and the accuracy penalties associated with the manual transfer of thermal data.

Selected bibliography on the modeling and control of plant processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viswanathan, M. M.; Julich, P. M.

1972-01-01

A bibliography of information pertinent to the problem of simulating plants is presented. Detailed simulations of constituent pieces are necessary to justify simple models which may be used for analysis. Thus, this area of study is necessary to support the Earth Resources Program. The report sums up the present state of the problem of simulating vegetation. This area holds the hope of major benefits to mankind through understanding the ecology of a region and in improving agricultural yield.

Heuristic for Critical Machine Based a Lot Streaming for Two-Stage Hybrid Production Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, P.; Saravanan, R.; Chandrasekaran, M.; Pugazhenthi, R.

2017-03-01

Lot streaming in Hybrid flowshop [HFS] is encountered in many real world problems. This paper deals with a heuristic approach for Lot streaming based on critical machine consideration for a two stage Hybrid Flowshop. The first stage has two identical parallel machines and the second stage has only one machine. In the second stage machine is considered as a critical by valid reasons these kind of problems is known as NP hard. A mathematical model developed for the selected problem. The simulation modelling and analysis were carried out in Extend V6 software. The heuristic developed for obtaining optimal lot streaming schedule. The eleven cases of lot streaming were considered. The proposed heuristic was verified and validated by real time simulation experiments. All possible lot streaming strategies and possible sequence under each lot streaming strategy were simulated and examined. The heuristic consistently yielded optimal schedule consistently in all eleven cases. The identification procedure for select best lot streaming strategy was suggested.

An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems.

PubMed

Ranganayaki, V; Deepa, S N

2016-01-01

Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature.

An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems

PubMed Central

Ranganayaki, V.; Deepa, S. N.

2016-01-01

Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature. PMID:27034973

Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Savenije, H.; Bastidas, L. A.

2015-04-01

This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is analyzed in a step by step manner. This is done measuring differences between simulations of a model under different realizations of input forcings. Algorithms are then suggested to estimate model complexity. Model complexities of the two model structures, SAC-SMA (Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting) and its simplified version SIXPAR (Six Parameter Model), are computed on resampled input data sets from basins that span across the continental US. The model complexities for SIXPAR are estimated for various parameter ranges. It is shown that complexity of SIXPAR increases with lower storage capacity and/or higher recession coefficients. Thus it is argued that a conceptually simple model structure, such as SIXPAR, can be more complex than an intuitively more complex model structure, such as SAC-SMA for certain parameter ranges. We therefore contend that magnitudes of feasible model parameters influence the complexity of the model selection problem just as parameter dimensionality (number of parameters) does and that parameter dimensionality is an incomplete indicator of stability of hydrological model selection and prediction problems.

Applications of remote sensing to water resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Analyses were made of selected long-term (1985 and beyond) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and to develop alternative solutions to any potential problems. One long-term objective selected for analysis was Water Availability Forecasting. A brief overview was scheduled in FY-77 of the objective -- primarily a fact-finding study to allow Data Management personnel to gain adequate background information to perform subsequent data system analyses. This report, includes discussions on some of the larger problems currently encountered in water measurement, the potential users of water availability forecasts, projected demands of users, current sensing accuracies, required parameter monitoring, status of forecasting modeling, and some measurement accuracies likely to be achievable by 1980 and 1990.

Modeling Selection and Extinction Mechanisms of Biological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirjanov, Adil

In this paper, the behavior of a genetic algorithm is modeled to enhance its applicability as a modeling tool of biological systems. A new description model for selection mechanism is introduced which operates on a portion of individuals of population. The extinction and recolonization mechanism is modeled, and solving the dynamics analytically shows that the genetic drift in the population with extinction/recolonization is doubled. The mathematical analysis of the interaction between selection and extinction/recolonization processes is carried out to assess the dynamics of motion of the macroscopic statistical properties of population. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of described models are in good approximations. A mathematical model of GA dynamics was also examined, which describes the anti-predator vigilance in an animal group with respect to a known analytical solution of the problem, and showed a good agreement between them to find the evolutionarily stable strategies.

Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn

2015-02-01

In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.

A Developed Meta-model for Selection of Cotton Fabrics Using Design of Experiments and TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Chatterjee, Prasenjit

2017-12-01

Selection of cotton fabrics for providing optimal clothing comfort is often considered as a multi-criteria decision making problem consisting of an array of candidate alternatives to be evaluated based of several conflicting properties. In this paper, design of experiments and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are integrated so as to develop regression meta-models for identifying the most suitable cotton fabrics with respect to the computed TOPSIS scores. The applicability of the adopted method is demonstrated using two real time examples. These developed models can also identify the statistically significant fabric properties and their interactions affecting the measured TOPSIS scores and final selection decisions. There exists good degree of congruence between the ranking patterns as derived using these meta-models and the existing methods for cotton fabric ranking and subsequent selection.

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Selective Cooperation in Early Childhood – How to Choose Models and Partners

PubMed Central

Hermes, Jonas; Behne, Tanya; Studte, Kristin; Zeyen, Anna-Maria; Gräfenhain, Maria; Rakoczy, Hannes

2016-01-01

Cooperation is essential for human society, and children engage in cooperation from early on. It is unclear, however, how children select their partners for cooperation. We know that children choose selectively whom to learn from (e.g. preferring reliable over unreliable models) on a rational basis. The present study investigated whether children (and adults) also choose their cooperative partners selectively and what model characteristics they regard as important for cooperative partners and for informants about novel words. Three- and four-year-old children (N = 64) and adults (N = 14) saw contrasting pairs of models differing either in physical strength or in accuracy (in labeling known objects). Participants then performed different tasks (cooperative problem solving and word learning) requiring the choice of a partner or informant. Both children and adults chose their cooperative partners selectively. Moreover they showed the same pattern of selective model choice, regarding a wide range of model characteristics as important for cooperation (preferring both the strong and the accurate model for a strength-requiring cooperation tasks), but only prior knowledge as important for word learning (preferring the knowledgeable but not the strong model for word learning tasks). Young children’s selective model choice thus reveals an early rational competence: They infer characteristics from past behavior and flexibly consider what characteristics are relevant for certain tasks. PMID:27505043

Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tofighian, Ali Asghar; Moezzi, Hamid; Khakzar Barfuei, Morteza; Shafiee, Mahmood

2018-02-01

This paper deals with multi-period project portfolio selection problem. In this problem, the available budget is invested on the best portfolio of projects in each period such that the net profit is maximized. We also consider more realistic assumptions to cover wider range of applications than those reported in previous studies. A novel mathematical model is presented to solve the problem, considering risks, stochastic incomes, and possibility of investing extra budget in each time period. Due to the complexity of the problem, an effective meta-heuristic method hybridized with a local search procedure is presented to solve the problem. The algorithm is based on genetic algorithm (GA), which is a prominent method to solve this type of problems. The GA is enhanced by a new solution representation and well selected operators. It also is hybridized with a local search mechanism to gain better solution in shorter time. The performance of the proposed algorithm is then compared with well-known algorithms, like basic genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM-like) by means of some prominent indicators. The computation results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. At last, the proposed algorithm is wisely combined with PSO to improve the computing time considerably.

Fuzzy bilevel programming with multiple non-cooperative followers: model, algorithm and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Hua; Huang, Hu; Ralescu, Dan A.; Wang, Lei

2016-04-01

In centralized decision problems, it is not complicated for decision-makers to make modelling technique selections under uncertainty. When a decentralized decision problem is considered, however, choosing appropriate models is no longer easy due to the difficulty in estimating the other decision-makers' inconclusive decision criteria. These decision criteria may vary with different decision-makers because of their special risk tolerances and management requirements. Considering the general differences among the decision-makers in decentralized systems, we propose a general framework of fuzzy bilevel programming including hybrid models (integrated with different modelling methods in different levels). Specially, we discuss two of these models which may have wide applications in many fields. Furthermore, we apply the proposed two models to formulate a pricing decision problem in a decentralized supply chain with fuzzy coefficients. In order to solve these models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation, neural network and particle swarm optimization based on penalty function approach is designed. Some suggestions on the applications of these models are also presented.

Markowitz portfolio optimization model employing fuzzy measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Suhailywati; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

2017-04-01

Markowitz in 1952 introduced the mean-variance methodology for the portfolio selection problems. His pioneering research has shaped the portfolio risk-return model and become one of the most important research fields in modern finance. This paper extends the classical Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model applying the fuzzy measure to determine the risk and return. In this paper, we apply the original mean-variance model as a benchmark, fuzzy mean-variance model with fuzzy return and the model with return are modeled by specific types of fuzzy number for comparison. The model with fuzzy approach gives better performance as compared to the mean-variance approach. The numerical examples are included to illustrate these models by employing Malaysian share market data.

Mutation-selection balance in mixed mating populations.

PubMed

Kelly, John K

2007-05-21

An approximation to the average number of deleterious mutations per gamete, Q, is derived from a model allowing selection on both zygotes and male gametes. Progeny are produced by either outcrossing or self-fertilization with fixed probabilities. The genetic model is a standard in evolutionary biology: mutations occur at unlinked loci, have equivalent effects, and combine multiplicatively to determine fitness. The approximation developed here treats individual mutation counts with a generalized Poisson model conditioned on the distribution of selfing histories in the population. The approximation is accurate across the range of parameter sets considered and provides both analytical insights and greatly increased computational speed. Model predictions are discussed in relation to several outstanding problems, including the estimation of the genomic deleterious mutation rates (U), the generality of "selective interference" among loci, and the consequences of gametic selection for the joint distribution of inbreeding depression and mating system across species. Finally, conflicting results from previous analytical treatments of mutation-selection balance are resolved to assumptions about the life-cycle and the initial fate of mutations.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships.

PubMed

Cooper, Mark; Chapman, Scott C; Podlich, Dean W; Hammer, Graeme L

2002-01-01

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

Learning from Past Classification Errors: Exploring Methods for Improving the Performance of a Deep Learning-based Building Extraction Model through Quantitative Analysis of Commission Errors for Optimal Sample Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swan, B.; Laverdiere, M.; Yang, L.

2017-12-01

In the past five years, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have been increasingly favored for computer vision applications due to their high accuracy and ability to generalize well in very complex problems; however, details of how they function and in turn how they may be optimized are still imperfectly understood. In particular, their complex and highly nonlinear network architecture, including many hidden layers and self-learned parameters, as well as their mathematical implications, presents open questions about how to effectively select training data. Without knowledge of the exact ways the model processes and transforms its inputs, intuition alone may fail as a guide to selecting highly relevant training samples. Working in the context of improving a CNN-based building extraction model used for the LandScan USA gridded population dataset, we have approached this problem by developing a semi-supervised, highly-scalable approach to select training samples from a dataset of identified commission errors. Due to the large scope this project, tens of thousands of potential samples could be derived from identified commission errors. To efficiently trim those samples down to a manageable and effective set for creating additional training sample, we statistically summarized the spectral characteristics of areas with rates of commission errors at the image tile level and grouped these tiles using affinity propagation. Highly representative members of each commission error cluster were then used to select sites for training sample creation. The model will be incrementally re-trained with the new training data to allow for an assessment of how the addition of different types of samples affects the model performance, such as precision and recall rates. By using quantitative analysis and data clustering techniques to select highly relevant training samples, we hope to improve model performance in a manner that is resource efficient, both in terms of training process and in sample creation.

Solving portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots based on conditional-value-at-risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.

2017-01-01

Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.

A Critique of Selected References on Educational Cost Effectiveness with a Resource - Utility Model To Improve Resource Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cleckner, John

The author reviews five cost-effectiveness basic models including log-log correlational, general utility theory, simultaneous equations, nonlinear theoretical, and feedback. Several suggestions are made to improve the models and increase the domain of problems that can be considered by the models. In the second part of the paper, the author…

Transshipment site selection using the AHP and TOPSIS approaches under fuzzy environment.

PubMed

Onüt, Semih; Soner, Selin

2008-01-01

Site selection is an important issue in waste management. Selection of the appropriate solid waste site requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because of system complexity. Evaluation procedures involve several objectives, and it is often necessary to compromise among possibly conflicting tangible and intangible factors. For these reasons, multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been found to be a useful approach to solve this kind of problem. Different MCDM models have been applied to solve this problem. But most of them are basically mathematical and ignore qualitative and often subjective considerations. It is easier for a decision-maker to describe a value for an alternative by using linguistic terms. In the fuzzy-based method, the rating of each alternative is described using linguistic terms, which can also be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, there have not been any studies focused on the site selection in waste management using both fuzzy TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) and AHP (analytical hierarchy process) techniques. In this paper, a fuzzy TOPSIS based methodology is applied to solve the solid waste transshipment site selection problem in Istanbul, Turkey. The criteria weights are calculated by using the AHP.

Integer Optimization Model for a Logistic System based on Location-Routing Considering Distance and Chosen Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulyasari, Joni; Mawengkang, Herman; Efendi, Syahril

2018-02-01

In a distribution network it is important to decide the locations of facilities that impacts not only the profitability of an organization but the ability to serve customers.Generally the location-routing problem is to minimize the overall cost by simultaneously selecting a subset of candidate facilities and constructing a set of delivery routes that satisfy some restrictions. In this paper we impose restriction on the route that should be passed for delivery. We use integer programming model to describe the problem. A feasible neighbourhood search is proposed to solve the result model.

Integrating Motivational Activities into Instruction: A Developmental Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brawer, Michael P.

A model for integrating motivational activities into instruction and the problem with motivational activities in the classroom for the disadvantaged learner are examined. Eight basic learning processes are identified that the teacher should understand in preparation for presenting information to students: attention/reception, selective perception,…

Development of a Value Inquiry Model in Biology Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeong, Eun-Young; Kim, Young-Soo

2000-01-01

Points out the rapid advances in biology, increasing bioethical issues, and how students need to make rational decisions. Introduces a value inquiry model development that includes identifying and clarifying value problems; understanding biological knowledge related to conflict situations; considering, selecting, and evaluating each alternative;…

Nature and Nurture Strike (Out) Again.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scarr, Sandra; Weinberg, Richard A.

1979-01-01

A reply to Plomin's critique and some criticisms of Munsinger's review of adopted child literature are presented. Selective bias in adoptee samples, implicit assumptions in models that lead to heritability estimates, and problems produced by lack of an accepted model of environmental transmission are also discussed. (Author/RD)

Peer influences on internalizing and externalizing problems among adolescents: a longitudinal social network analysis.

PubMed

Fortuin, Janna; van Geel, Mitch; Vedder, Paul

2015-04-01

Adolescents who like each other may become more similar to each other with regard to internalizing and externalizing problems, though it is not yet clear which social mechanisms explain these similarities. In this longitudinal study, we analyzed four mechanisms that may explain similarity in adolescent peer networks with regard to externalizing and internalizing problems: selection, socialization, avoidance and withdrawal. At three moments during one school-year, we asked 542 adolescents (8th grade, M-age = 13.3 years, 51 % female) to report who they liked in their classroom, and their own internalizing and externalizing problems. Adolescents tend to prefer peers who have similar externalizing problem scores, but no significant selection effect was found for internalizing problems. Adolescents who share the same group of friends socialize each other and then become more similar with respect to externalizing problems, but not with respect to internalizing problems. We found no significant effects for avoidance or withdrawal. Adolescents may choose to belong to a peer group that is similar to them in terms of externalizing problem behaviors, and through peer group socialization (e.g., enticing, modelling, mimicking, and peer pressure) become more similar to that group over time.

Bayesian evidence computation for model selection in non-linear geoacoustic inference problems.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Osler, John C

2010-12-01

This paper applies a general Bayesian inference approach, based on Bayesian evidence computation, to geoacoustic inversion of interface-wave dispersion data. Quantitative model selection is carried out by computing the evidence (normalizing constants) for several model parameterizations using annealed importance sampling. The resulting posterior probability density estimate is compared to estimates obtained from Metropolis-Hastings sampling to ensure consistent results. The approach is applied to invert interface-wave dispersion data collected on the Scotian Shelf, off the east coast of Canada for the sediment shear-wave velocity profile. Results are consistent with previous work on these data but extend the analysis to a rigorous approach including model selection and uncertainty analysis. The results are also consistent with core samples and seismic reflection measurements carried out in the area.

A scenario optimization model for dynamic reserve site selection

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight; Charles S. ReVelle

2004-01-01

Conservation planners are called upon to make choices and trade-offs about the preservation of natural areas for the protection of species in the face of development pressures. We addressed the problem of selecting sites for protection over time with the objective of maximizing species representation, with uncertainty about future site development, and with periodic...

PyCoTools: A Python Toolbox for COPASI.

PubMed

Welsh, Ciaran M; Fullard, Nicola; Proctor, Carole J; Martinez-Guimera, Alvaro; Isfort, Robert J; Bascom, Charles C; Tasseff, Ryan; Przyborski, Stefan A; Shanley, Daryl P

2018-05-22

COPASI is an open source software package for constructing, simulating and analysing dynamic models of biochemical networks. COPASI is primarily intended to be used with a graphical user interface but often it is desirable to be able to access COPASI features programmatically, with a high level interface. PyCoTools is a Python package aimed at providing a high level interface to COPASI tasks with an emphasis on model calibration. PyCoTools enables the construction of COPASI models and the execution of a subset of COPASI tasks including time courses, parameter scans and parameter estimations. Additional 'composite' tasks which use COPASI tasks as building blocks are available for increasing parameter estimation throughput, performing identifiability analysis and performing model selection. PyCoTools supports exploratory data analysis on parameter estimation data to assist with troubleshooting model calibrations. We demonstrate PyCoTools by posing a model selection problem designed to show case PyCoTools within a realistic scenario. The aim of the model selection problem is to test the feasibility of three alternative hypotheses in explaining experimental data derived from neonatal dermal fibroblasts in response to TGF-β over time. PyCoTools is used to critically analyse the parameter estimations and propose strategies for model improvement. PyCoTools can be downloaded from the Python Package Index (PyPI) using the command 'pip install pycotools' or directly from GitHub (https://github.com/CiaranWelsh/pycotools). Documentation at http://pycotools.readthedocs.io. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics.

Gene Regulatory Network Inferences Using a Maximum-Relevance and Maximum-Significance Strategy

PubMed Central

Liu, Wei; Zhu, Wen; Liao, Bo; Chen, Xiangtao

2016-01-01

Recovering gene regulatory networks from expression data is a challenging problem in systems biology that provides valuable information on the regulatory mechanisms of cells. A number of algorithms based on computational models are currently used to recover network topology. However, most of these algorithms have limitations. For example, many models tend to be complicated because of the “large p, small n” problem. In this paper, we propose a novel regulatory network inference method called the maximum-relevance and maximum-significance network (MRMSn) method, which converts the problem of recovering networks into a problem of how to select the regulator genes for each gene. To solve the latter problem, we present an algorithm that is based on information theory and selects the regulator genes for a specific gene by maximizing the relevance and significance. A first-order incremental search algorithm is used to search for regulator genes. Eventually, a strict constraint is adopted to adjust all of the regulatory relationships according to the obtained regulator genes and thus obtain the complete network structure. We performed our method on five different datasets and compared our method to five state-of-the-art methods for network inference based on information theory. The results confirm the effectiveness of our method. PMID:27829000

Model-Averaged ℓ1 Regularization using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition

PubMed Central

Fraley, Chris; Percival, Daniel

2014-01-01

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an effective technique for addressing model uncertainty in variable selection problems. However, current BMA approaches have computational difficulty dealing with data in which there are many more measurements (variables) than samples. This paper presents a method for combining ℓ1 regularization and Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition techniques for BMA. By treating the ℓ1 regularization path as a model space, we propose a method to resolve the model uncertainty issues arising in model averaging from solution path point selection. We show that this method is computationally and empirically effective for regression and classification in high-dimensional datasets. We apply our technique in simulations, as well as to some applications that arise in genomics. PMID:25642001

An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Weixuan, E-mail: weixuan.li@usc.edu; Lin, Guang, E-mail: guang.lin@pnnl.gov; Zhang, Dongxiao, E-mail: dxz@pku.edu.cn

2014-02-01

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functionsmore » is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.« less

An Adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for High-Dimensional Nonlinear Inverse Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LI, Weixuan; Lin, Guang; Zhang, Dongxiao

2014-02-01

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos bases in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Bases selection is particularly importantmore » for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos bases required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE bases are pre-set based on users’ experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the bases kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE bases for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of bases in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm is tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.« less

Testable solution of the cosmological constant and coincidence problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaw, Douglas J.; Barrow, John D.

2011-02-15

We present a new solution to the cosmological constant (CC) and coincidence problems in which the observed value of the CC, {Lambda}, is linked to other observable properties of the Universe. This is achieved by promoting the CC from a parameter that must be specified, to a field that can take many possible values. The observed value of {Lambda}{approx_equal}(9.3 Gyrs){sup -2}[{approx_equal}10{sup -120} in Planck units] is determined by a new constraint equation which follows from the application of a causally restricted variation principle. When applied to our visible Universe, the model makes a testable prediction for the dimensionless spatial curvaturemore » of {Omega}{sub k0}=-0.0056({zeta}{sub b}/0.5), where {zeta}{sub b}{approx}1/2 is a QCD parameter. Requiring that a classical history exist, our model determines the probability of observing a given {Lambda}. The observed CC value, which we successfully predict, is typical within our model even before the effects of anthropic selection are included. When anthropic selection effects are accounted for, we find that the observed coincidence between t{sub {Lambda}={Lambda}}{sup -1/2} and the age of the Universe, t{sub U}, is a typical occurrence in our model. In contrast to multiverse explanations of the CC problems, our solution is independent of the choice of a prior weighting of different {Lambda} values and does not rely on anthropic selection effects. Our model includes no unnatural small parameters and does not require the introduction of new dynamical scalar fields or modifications to general relativity, and it can be tested by astronomical observations in the near future.« less

A meteorologically driven grain sorghum stress indicator model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, T. W.; Ravet, F. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A grain sorghum soil moisture and temperature stress model is described. It was developed to serve as a meteorological data filter to alert commodity analysts to potential stress conditions and crop phenology in selected grain sorghum production areas. The model also identifies optimum conditions on a daily basis and planting/harvest problems associated with poor tractability.

Identification of the heat transfer coefficient in the two-dimensional model of binary alloy solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetmaniok, Edyta; Hristov, Jordan; Słota, Damian; Zielonka, Adam

2017-05-01

The paper presents the procedure for solving the inverse problem for the binary alloy solidification in a two-dimensional space. This is a continuation of some previous works of the authors investigating a similar problem but in the one-dimensional domain. Goal of the problem consists in identification of the heat transfer coefficient on boundary of the region and in reconstruction of the temperature distribution inside the considered region in case when the temperature measurements in selected points of the alloy are known. Mathematical model of the problem is based on the heat conduction equation with the substitute thermal capacity and with the liquidus and solidus temperatures varying in dependance on the concentration of the alloy component. For describing this concentration the Scheil model is used. Investigated procedure involves also the parallelized Ant Colony Optimization algorithm applied for minimizing a functional expressing the error of approximate solution.

Boosting the discriminative power of color models for feature detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokman, Harro M. G.; Gevers, Theo

2005-01-01

We consider the well-known problem of segmenting a color image into foreground-background pixels. Such result can be obtained by segmenting the red, green and blue channels directly. Alternatively, the result may be obtained through the transformation of the color image into other color spaces, such as HSV or normalized colors. The problem then is how to select the color space or color channel that produces the best segmentation result. Furthermore, if more than one channels are equally good candidates, the next problem is how to combine the results. In this article, we investigate if the principles of the formal model for diversification of Markowitz (1952) can be applied to solve the problem. We verify, in theory and in practice, that the proposed diversification model can be applied effectively to determine the most appropriate combination of color spaces for the application at hand.

Penalized regression procedures for variable selection in the potential outcomes framework

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Debashis; Zhu, Yeying; Coffman, Donna L.

2015-01-01

A recent topic of much interest in causal inference is model selection. In this article, we describe a framework in which to consider penalized regression approaches to variable selection for causal effects. The framework leads to a simple ‘impute, then select’ class of procedures that is agnostic to the type of imputation algorithm as well as penalized regression used. It also clarifies how model selection involves a multivariate regression model for causal inference problems, and that these methods can be applied for identifying subgroups in which treatment effects are homogeneous. Analogies and links with the literature on machine learning methods, missing data and imputation are drawn. A difference LASSO algorithm is defined, along with its multiple imputation analogues. The procedures are illustrated using a well-known right heart catheterization dataset. PMID:25628185

Selecting materialized views using random algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lijuan; Hao, Zhongxiao; Liu, Chi

2007-04-01

The data warehouse is a repository of information collected from multiple possibly heterogeneous autonomous distributed databases. The information stored at the data warehouse is in form of views referred to as materialized views. The selection of the materialized views is one of the most important decisions in designing a data warehouse. Materialized views are stored in the data warehouse for the purpose of efficiently implementing on-line analytical processing queries. The first issue for the user to consider is query response time. So in this paper, we develop algorithms to select a set of views to materialize in data warehouse in order to minimize the total view maintenance cost under the constraint of a given query response time. We call it query_cost view_ selection problem. First, cost graph and cost model of query_cost view_ selection problem are presented. Second, the methods for selecting materialized views by using random algorithms are presented. The genetic algorithm is applied to the materialized views selection problem. But with the development of genetic process, the legal solution produced become more and more difficult, so a lot of solutions are eliminated and producing time of the solutions is lengthened in genetic algorithm. Therefore, improved algorithm has been presented in this paper, which is the combination of simulated annealing algorithm and genetic algorithm for the purpose of solving the query cost view selection problem. Finally, in order to test the function and efficiency of our algorithms experiment simulation is adopted. The experiments show that the given methods can provide near-optimal solutions in limited time and works better in practical cases. Randomized algorithms will become invaluable tools for data warehouse evolution.

Analysis of the critical thinking process of junior high school students in solving geometric problems by utilizing the v-a-k learning styles model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hananto, R. B.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Riyadi

2018-05-01

The research aims to identify the critical thinking process of students in solving geometry problems. The geometry problem selected in this study was the building of flat side room (cube). The critical thinking process was implemented to visual, auditory and kinesthetic learning styles. This research was a descriptive analysis research using qualitative method. The subjects of this research were 3 students selected by purposive sampling consisting of visual, auditory, and kinesthetic learning styles. Data collection was done through test, interview, and observation. The results showed that the students' critical thinking process in identifying and defining steps for each learning style were similar in solving problems. The critical thinking differences were seen in enumerate, analyze, list, and self-correct steps. It was also found that critical thinking process of students with kinesthetic learning style was better than visual and auditory learning styles.

Mental health courts and their selection processes: modeling variation for consistency.

PubMed

Wolff, Nancy; Fabrikant, Nicole; Belenko, Steven

2011-10-01

Admission into mental health courts is based on a complicated and often variable decision-making process that involves multiple parties representing different expertise and interests. To the extent that eligibility criteria of mental health courts are more suggestive than deterministic, selection bias can be expected. Very little research has focused on the selection processes underpinning problem-solving courts even though such processes may dominate the performance of these interventions. This article describes a qualitative study designed to deconstruct the selection and admission processes of mental health courts. In this article, we describe a multi-stage, complex process for screening and admitting clients into mental health courts. The selection filtering model that is described has three eligibility screening stages: initial, assessment, and evaluation. The results of this study suggest that clients selected by mental health courts are shaped by the formal and informal selection criteria, as well as by the local treatment system.

On anthropic solutions of the cosmological constant problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, Tom; Dine, Michael; Motl, Lubos

2001-01-01

Motivated by recent work of Bousso and Polchinski (BP), we study theories which explain the small value of the cosmological constant using the anthropic principle. We argue that simultaneous solution of the gauge hierarchy problem is a strong constraint on any such theory. We exhibit three classes of models which satisfy these constraints. The first is a version of the BP model with precisely two large dimensions. The second involves 6-branes and antibranes wrapped on supersymmetric 3-cycles of Calabi-Yau manifolds, and the third is a version of the irrational axion model. All of them have possible problems in explaining the size of microwave background fluctuations. We also find that most models of this type predict that all constants in the low energy lagrangian, as well as the gauge groups and representation content, are chosen from an ensemble and cannot be uniquely determined from the fundamental theory. In our opinion, this significantly reduces the appeal of this kind of solution of the cosmological constant problem. On the other hand, we argue that the vacuum selection problem of string theory might plausibly have an anthropic, cosmological solution.

Landfill gas control at military installations. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shafer, R.A.; Renta-Babb, A.; Bandy, J.T.

1984-01-01

This report provides information useful to Army personnel responsible for recognizing and solving potential problems from gas generated by landfills. Information is provided on recognizing and gauging the magnitude of landfill gas problems; selecting appropriate gas control strategies, procedures, and equipment; use of computer modeling to predict gas production and migration and the success of gas control devices; and safety considerations.

Applications of Optimal Building Energy System Selection and Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal

2011-04-01

Berkeley Lab has been developing the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) for several years. Given load curves for energy services requirements in a building microgrid (u grid), fuel costs and other economic inputs, and a menu of available technologies, DER-CAM finds the optimum equipment fleet and its optimum operating schedule using a mixed integer linear programming approach. This capability is being applied using a software as a service (SaaS) model. Optimisation problems are set up on a Berkeley Lab server and clients can execute their jobs as needed, typically daily. The evolution of this approach is demonstrated bymore » description of three ongoing projects. The first is a public access web site focused on solar photovoltaic generation and battery viability at large commercial and industrial customer sites. The second is a building CO2 emissions reduction operations problem for a University of California, Davis student dining hall for which potential investments are also considered. And the third, is both a battery selection problem and a rolling operating schedule problem for a large County Jail. Together these examples show that optimization of building u grid design and operation can be effectively achieved using SaaS.« less

Planned Educational Change: Developing an Operational Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leithwood, K. A.; Russell, H. H.

This speech presents a model for implementing educational change. The author conceptualizes seven temporally sequenced stages of educational change, including (1) agreement to begin; (2) establishment of an organization; (3) selection of problems and goals; (4) study of available solutions; (5) pilot trials; (6) adopt, adapt, reject decisions; and…

Modeling global vector fields of chaotic systems from noisy time series with the aid of structure-selection techniques.

PubMed

Xu, Daolin; Lu, Fangfang

2006-12-01

We address the problem of reconstructing a set of nonlinear differential equations from chaotic time series. A method that combines the implicit Adams integration and the structure-selection technique of an error reduction ratio is proposed for system identification and corresponding parameter estimation of the model. The structure-selection technique identifies the significant terms from a pool of candidates of functional basis and determines the optimal model through orthogonal characteristics on data. The technique with the Adams integration algorithm makes the reconstruction available to data sampled with large time intervals. Numerical experiment on Lorenz and Rossler systems shows that the proposed strategy is effective in global vector field reconstruction from noisy time series.

[Demographic consequences of genetic load: a model of the origin of the incest taboo].

PubMed

Buzin, A Iu

1987-12-01

The prohibition of copulations among near relatives may raise the fitness of population. This effect being irregular and insignificant for a distinct generation, becomes apparent in evolutionary time intervals through the natural selection of populations with incest-taboo. The "characteristic selection time" theta depends on typical population size, genetic damage and the mean rate of population growth. The estimation obtained for theta permit us to assert that the model describes the phenomenon of "socio-cultural selection" in prehistory. The model shows the demographic specificity of small populations. The problem of the number of consanguineous marriages is considered in detail. New explanation for deviation of the observed frequency of consanguineous marriages from classical estimations is proposed.

Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

PubMed

Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

2014-03-29

We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

Numerical formulation for the prediction of solid/liquid change of a binary alloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, G. E.; Tiwari, S. N.

1990-01-01

A computational model is presented for the prediction of solid/liquid phase change energy transport including the influence of free convection fluid flow in the liquid phase region. The computational model considers the velocity components of all non-liquid phase change material control volumes to be zero but fully solves the coupled mass-momentum problem within the liquid region. The thermal energy model includes the entire domain and uses an enthalpy like model and a recently developed method for handling the phase change interface nonlinearity. Convergence studies are performed and comparisons made with experimental data for two different problem specifications. The convergence studies indicate that grid independence was achieved and the comparison with experimental data indicates excellent quantitative prediction of the melt fraction evolution. Qualitative data is also provided in the form of velocity vector diagrams and isotherm plots for selected times in the evolution of both problems. The computational costs incurred are quite low by comparison with previous efforts on solving these problems.

Agatha: Disentangling period signals from correlated noise in a periodogram framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, F.; Tuomi, M.; Jones, H. R. A.

2018-04-01

Agatha is a framework of periodograms to disentangle periodic signals from correlated noise and to solve the two-dimensional model selection problem: signal dimension and noise model dimension. These periodograms are calculated by applying likelihood maximization and marginalization and combined in a self-consistent way. Agatha can be used to select the optimal noise model and to test the consistency of signals in time and can be applied to time series analyses in other astronomical and scientific disciplines. An interactive web implementation of the software is also available at http://agatha.herts.ac.uk/.

A novel one-class SVM based negative data sampling method for reconstructing proteome-wide HTLV-human protein interaction networks.

PubMed

Mei, Suyu; Zhu, Hao

2015-01-26

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) prediction is generally treated as a problem of binary classification wherein negative data sampling is still an open problem to be addressed. The commonly used random sampling is prone to yield less representative negative data with considerable false negatives. Meanwhile rational constraints are seldom exerted on model selection to reduce the risk of false positive predictions for most of the existing computational methods. In this work, we propose a novel negative data sampling method based on one-class SVM (support vector machine, SVM) to predict proteome-wide protein interactions between HTLV retrovirus and Homo sapiens, wherein one-class SVM is used to choose reliable and representative negative data, and two-class SVM is used to yield proteome-wide outcomes as predictive feedback for rational model selection. Computational results suggest that one-class SVM is more suited to be used as negative data sampling method than two-class PPI predictor, and the predictive feedback constrained model selection helps to yield a rational predictive model that reduces the risk of false positive predictions. Some predictions have been validated by the recent literature. Lastly, gene ontology based clustering of the predicted PPI networks is conducted to provide valuable cues for the pathogenesis of HTLV retrovirus.

A novel approach for inventory problem in the pharmaceutical supply chain.

PubMed

Candan, Gökçe; Yazgan, Harun Reşit

2016-02-24

In pharmaceutical enterprises, keeping up with global market conditions is possible with properly selected supply chain management policies. Generally; demand-driven classical supply chain model is used in the pharmaceutical industry. In this study, a new mathematical model is developed to solve an inventory problem in the pharmaceutical supply chain. Unlike the studies in literature, the "shelf life and product transition times" constraints are considered, simultaneously, first time in the pharmaceutical production inventory problem. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model with a hybrid time representation. The objective is to maximize total net profit. Effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated considering a classical and a vendor managed inventory (VMI) supply chain on an experimental study. To show the effectiveness of the model, an experimental study is performed; which contains 2 different supply chain policy (Classical and VMI), 24 and 30 months planning horizon, 10 and 15 different cephalosporin products. Finally the mathematical model is compared to another model in literature and the results show that proposed model is superior. This study suggest a novel approach for solving pharmaceutical inventory problem. The developed model is maximizing total net profit while determining optimal production plan under shelf life and product transition constraints in the pharmaceutical industry. And we believe that the proposed model is much more closed to real life unlike the other studies in literature.

Exploring different strategies for imbalanced ADME data problem: case study on Caco-2 permeability modeling.

PubMed

Pham-The, Hai; Casañola-Martin, Gerardo; Garrigues, Teresa; Bermejo, Marival; González-Álvarez, Isabel; Nguyen-Hai, Nam; Cabrera-Pérez, Miguel Ángel; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong

2016-02-01

In many absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) modeling problems, imbalanced data could negatively affect classification performance of machine learning algorithms. Solutions for handling imbalanced dataset have been proposed, but their application for ADME modeling tasks is underexplored. In this paper, various strategies including cost-sensitive learning and resampling methods were studied to tackle the moderate imbalance problem of a large Caco-2 cell permeability database. Simple physicochemical molecular descriptors were utilized for data modeling. Support vector machine classifiers were constructed and compared using multiple comparison tests. Results showed that the models developed on the basis of resampling strategies displayed better performance than the cost-sensitive classification models, especially in the case of oversampling data where misclassification rates for minority class have values of 0.11 and 0.14 for training and test set, respectively. A consensus model with enhanced applicability domain was subsequently constructed and showed improved performance. This model was used to predict a set of randomly selected high-permeability reference drugs according to the biopharmaceutics classification system. Overall, this study provides a comparison of numerous rebalancing strategies and displays the effectiveness of oversampling methods to deal with imbalanced permeability data problems.

Applications of information theory, genetic algorithms, and neural models to predict oil flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Oswaldo; Nunes, Urbano; Araújo, Rui; Schnitman, Leizer; Lepikson, Herman Augusto

2009-07-01

This work introduces a new information-theoretic methodology for choosing variables and their time lags in a prediction setting, particularly when neural networks are used in non-linear modeling. The first contribution of this work is the Cross Entropy Function (XEF) proposed to select input variables and their lags in order to compose the input vector of black-box prediction models. The proposed XEF method is more appropriate than the usually applied Cross Correlation Function (XCF) when the relationship among the input and output signals comes from a non-linear dynamic system. The second contribution is a method that minimizes the Joint Conditional Entropy (JCE) between the input and output variables by means of a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The aim is to take into account the dependence among the input variables when selecting the most appropriate set of inputs for a prediction problem. In short, theses methods can be used to assist the selection of input training data that have the necessary information to predict the target data. The proposed methods are applied to a petroleum engineering problem; predicting oil production. Experimental results obtained with a real-world dataset are presented demonstrating the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Objects Classification by Learning-Based Visual Saliency Model and Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

Li, Na; Zhao, Xinbo; Yang, Yongjia; Zou, Xiaochun

2016-01-01

Humans can easily classify different kinds of objects whereas it is quite difficult for computers. As a hot and difficult problem, objects classification has been receiving extensive interests with broad prospects. Inspired by neuroscience, deep learning concept is proposed. Convolutional neural network (CNN) as one of the methods of deep learning can be used to solve classification problem. But most of deep learning methods, including CNN, all ignore the human visual information processing mechanism when a person is classifying objects. Therefore, in this paper, inspiring the completed processing that humans classify different kinds of objects, we bring forth a new classification method which combines visual attention model and CNN. Firstly, we use the visual attention model to simulate the processing of human visual selection mechanism. Secondly, we use CNN to simulate the processing of how humans select features and extract the local features of those selected areas. Finally, not only does our classification method depend on those local features, but also it adds the human semantic features to classify objects. Our classification method has apparently advantages in biology. Experimental results demonstrated that our method made the efficiency of classification improve significantly.

Sparse representation based biomarker selection for schizophrenia with integrated analysis of fMRI and SNPs.

PubMed

Cao, Hongbao; Duan, Junbo; Lin, Dongdong; Shugart, Yin Yao; Calhoun, Vince; Wang, Yu-Ping

2014-11-15

Integrative analysis of multiple data types can take advantage of their complementary information and therefore may provide higher power to identify potential biomarkers that would be missed using individual data analysis. Due to different natures of diverse data modality, data integration is challenging. Here we address the data integration problem by developing a generalized sparse model (GSM) using weighting factors to integrate multi-modality data for biomarker selection. As an example, we applied the GSM model to a joint analysis of two types of schizophrenia data sets: 759,075 SNPs and 153,594 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) voxels in 208 subjects (92 cases/116 controls). To solve this small-sample-large-variable problem, we developed a novel sparse representation based variable selection (SRVS) algorithm, with the primary aim to identify biomarkers associated with schizophrenia. To validate the effectiveness of the selected variables, we performed multivariate classification followed by a ten-fold cross validation. We compared our proposed SRVS algorithm with an earlier sparse model based variable selection algorithm for integrated analysis. In addition, we compared with the traditional statistics method for uni-variant data analysis (Chi-squared test for SNP data and ANOVA for fMRI data). Results showed that our proposed SRVS method can identify novel biomarkers that show stronger capability in distinguishing schizophrenia patients from healthy controls. Moreover, better classification ratios were achieved using biomarkers from both types of data, suggesting the importance of integrative analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic optimization approach for integrated supplier selection and tracking control of single product inventory system with product discount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Heru Tjahjana, R.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in the form of dynamic/multi-stage optimization to solve an integrated supplier selection problem and tracking control problem of single product inventory system with product discount. The product discount will be stated as a piece-wise linear function. We use dynamic programming to solve this proposed optimization to determine the optimal supplier and the optimal product volume that will be purchased from the optimal supplier for each time period so that the inventory level tracks a reference trajectory given by decision maker with minimal total cost. We give a numerical experiment to evaluate the proposed model. From the result, the optimal supplier was determined for each time period and the inventory level follows the given reference well.

Monte Carlo Solution to Find Input Parameters in Systems Design Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsham, Hossein

2013-06-01

Most engineering system designs, such as product, process, and service design, involve a framework for arriving at a target value for a set of experiments. This paper considers a stochastic approximation algorithm for estimating the controllable input parameter within a desired accuracy, given a target value for the performance function. Two different problems, what-if and goal-seeking problems, are explained and defined in an auxiliary simulation model, which represents a local response surface model in terms of a polynomial. A method of constructing this polynomial by a single run simulation is explained. An algorithm is given to select the design parameter for the local response surface model. Finally, the mean time to failure (MTTF) of a reliability subsystem is computed and compared with its known analytical MTTF value for validation purposes.

Resource Allocation Algorithms for the Next Generation Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amzallag, David; Raz, Danny

This chapter describes recent results addressing resource allocation problems in the context of current and future cellular technologies. We present models that capture several fundamental aspects of planning and operating these networks, and develop new approximation algorithms providing provable good solutions for the corresponding optimization problems. We mainly focus on two families of problems: cell planning and cell selection. Cell planning deals with choosing a network of base stations that can provide the required coverage of the service area with respect to the traffic requirements, available capacities, interference, and the desired QoS. Cell selection is the process of determining the cell(s) that provide service to each mobile station. Optimizing these processes is an important step towards maximizing the utilization of current and future cellular networks.

Kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for disease classification using microarray gene expression data

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xin; Cheung, Leo Wang-Kit

2007-01-01

Background Designing appropriate machine learning methods for identifying genes that have a significant discriminating power for disease outcomes has become more and more important for our understanding of diseases at genomic level. Although many machine learning methods have been developed and applied to the area of microarray gene expression data analysis, the majority of them are based on linear models, which however are not necessarily appropriate for the underlying connection between the target disease and its associated explanatory genes. Linear model based methods usually also bring in false positive significant features more easily. Furthermore, linear model based algorithms often involve calculating the inverse of a matrix that is possibly singular when the number of potentially important genes is relatively large. This leads to problems of numerical instability. To overcome these limitations, a few non-linear methods have recently been introduced to the area. Many of the existing non-linear methods have a couple of critical problems, the model selection problem and the model parameter tuning problem, that remain unsolved or even untouched. In general, a unified framework that allows model parameters of both linear and non-linear models to be easily tuned is always preferred in real-world applications. Kernel-induced learning methods form a class of approaches that show promising potentials to achieve this goal. Results A hierarchical statistical model named kernel-imbedded Gaussian process (KIGP) is developed under a unified Bayesian framework for binary disease classification problems using microarray gene expression data. In particular, based on a probit regression setting, an adaptive algorithm with a cascading structure is designed to find the appropriate kernel, to discover the potentially significant genes, and to make the optimal class prediction accordingly. A Gibbs sampler is built as the core of the algorithm to make Bayesian inferences. Simulation studies showed that, even without any knowledge of the underlying generative model, the KIGP performed very close to the theoretical Bayesian bound not only in the case with a linear Bayesian classifier but also in the case with a very non-linear Bayesian classifier. This sheds light on its broader usability to microarray data analysis problems, especially to those that linear methods work awkwardly. The KIGP was also applied to four published microarray datasets, and the results showed that the KIGP performed better than or at least as well as any of the referred state-of-the-art methods did in all of these cases. Conclusion Mathematically built on the kernel-induced feature space concept under a Bayesian framework, the KIGP method presented in this paper provides a unified machine learning approach to explore both the linear and the possibly non-linear underlying relationship between the target features of a given binary disease classification problem and the related explanatory gene expression data. More importantly, it incorporates the model parameter tuning into the framework. The model selection problem is addressed in the form of selecting a proper kernel type. The KIGP method also gives Bayesian probabilistic predictions for disease classification. These properties and features are beneficial to most real-world applications. The algorithm is naturally robust in numerical computation. The simulation studies and the published data studies demonstrated that the proposed KIGP performs satisfactorily and consistently. PMID:17328811

Model For Marketing Strategy Decision Based On Multicriteria Decicion Making: A Case Study In Batik Madura Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anna, I. D.; Cahyadi, I.; Yakin, A.

2018-01-01

Selection of marketing strategy is a prominent competitive advantage for small and medium enterprises business development. The selection process is is a multiple criteria decision-making problem, which includes evaluation of various attributes or criteria in a process of strategy formulation. The objective of this paper is to develop a model for the selection of a marketing strategy in Batik Madura industry. The current study proposes an integrated approach based on analytic network process (ANP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine the best strategy for Batik Madura marketing problems. Based on the results of group decision-making technique, this study selected fourteen criteria, including consistency, cost, trend following, customer loyalty, business volume, uniqueness manpower, customer numbers, promotion, branding, bussiness network, outlet location, credibility and the inovation as Batik Madura marketing strategy evaluation criteria. A survey questionnaire developed from literature review was distributed to a sample frame of Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan. In the decision procedure step, expert evaluators were asked to establish the decision matrix by comparing the marketing strategy alternatives under each of the individual criteria. Then, considerations obtained from ANP and TOPSIS methods were applied to build the specific criteria constraints and range of the launch strategy in the model. The model in this study demonstrates that, under current business situation, Straight-focus marketing strategy is the best marketing strategy for Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan.

Multi-Scale Enviro-HIRLAM Forecasting of Weather and Atmospheric Composition over China and its Megacities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Nuterman, Roman; Yang, Xiaohua; Baklanov, Alexander

2017-04-01

Air pollution is a serious problem in different regions of China and its continuously growing megacities. Information on air quality, and especially, in urbanized areas is important for decision making, emergency response and population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions having serious air pollution problems. The on-line integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model adapted for China and selected megacities is applied for forecasting of weather and atmospheric composition (with focus on aerosols). The model system is running in downscaling chain from regional to urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km. The model setup includes also the urban Building Effects Parameterization module, describing different types of urban districts (industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential) with its own morphological and aerodynamical characteristics. The effects of urbanization are important for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations, in addition to better quality emission inventories for China and selected urban areas. The Enviro-HIRLAM system provides meteorology and air quality forecasts at regional-subregional-urban scales (China - East China - selected megacities). In particular, such forecasting is important for metropolitan areas, where formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns are especially complex. It also provides information for evaluation impact on selected megacities of China as well as for investigation relationship between air pollution and meteorology.

Developing a Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid Evolution (SC-SAHEL) Framework for Water Resources Management and Water-Energy System Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahnamay Naeini, M.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Yang, T.

2017-12-01

Meta-Heuristic optimization algorithms have gained a great deal of attention in a wide variety of fields. Simplicity and flexibility of these algorithms, along with their robustness, make them attractive tools for solving optimization problems. Different optimization methods, however, hold algorithm-specific strengths and limitations. Performance of each individual algorithm obeys the "No-Free-Lunch" theorem, which means a single algorithm cannot consistently outperform all possible optimization problems over a variety of problems. From users' perspective, it is a tedious process to compare, validate, and select the best-performing algorithm for a specific problem or a set of test cases. In this study, we introduce a new hybrid optimization framework, entitled Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid EvoLution (SC-SAHEL), which combines the strengths of different evolutionary algorithms (EAs) in a parallel computing scheme, and allows users to select the most suitable algorithm tailored to the problem at hand. The concept of SC-SAHEL is to execute different EAs as separate parallel search cores, and let all participating EAs to compete during the course of the search. The newly developed SC-SAHEL algorithm is designed to automatically select, the best performing algorithm for the given optimization problem. This algorithm is rigorously effective in finding the global optimum for several strenuous benchmark test functions, and computationally efficient as compared to individual EAs. We benchmark the proposed SC-SAHEL algorithm over 29 conceptual test functions, and two real-world case studies - one hydropower reservoir model and one hydrological model (SAC-SMA). Results show that the proposed framework outperforms individual EAs in an absolute majority of the test problems, and can provide competitive results to the fittest EA algorithm with more comprehensive information during the search. The proposed framework is also flexible for merging additional EAs, boundary-handling techniques, and sampling schemes, and has good potential to be used in Water-Energy system optimal operation and management.

Multivariate fault isolation of batch processes via variable selection in partial least squares discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Yan, Zhengbing; Kuang, Te-Hui; Yao, Yuan

2017-09-01

In recent years, multivariate statistical monitoring of batch processes has become a popular research topic, wherein multivariate fault isolation is an important step aiming at the identification of the faulty variables contributing most to the detected process abnormality. Although contribution plots have been commonly used in statistical fault isolation, such methods suffer from the smearing effect between correlated variables. In particular, in batch process monitoring, the high autocorrelations and cross-correlations that exist in variable trajectories make the smearing effect unavoidable. To address such a problem, a variable selection-based fault isolation method is proposed in this research, which transforms the fault isolation problem into a variable selection problem in partial least squares discriminant analysis and solves it by calculating a sparse partial least squares model. As different from the traditional methods, the proposed method emphasizes the relative importance of each process variable. Such information may help process engineers in conducting root-cause diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vector autoregressive model approach for forecasting outflow cash in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

hoyyi, Abdul; Tarno; Maruddani, Di Asih I.; Rahmawati, Rita

2018-05-01

Multivariate time series model is more applied in economic and business problems as well as in other fields. Applications in economic problems one of them is the forecasting of outflow cash. This problem can be viewed globally in the sense that there is no spatial effect between regions, so the model used is the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data used in this research is data on the money supply in Bank Indonesia Semarang, Solo, Purwokerto and Tegal. The model used in this research is VAR (1), VAR (2) and VAR (3) models. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) is used to estimate parameters. The best model selection criteria use the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The result of data analysis shows that the AIC value of VAR (1) model is equal to 42.72292, VAR (2) equals 42.69119 and VAR (3) equals 42.87662. The difference in AIC values is not significant. Based on the smallest AIC value criteria, the best model is the VAR (2) model. This model has satisfied the white noise assumption.

A solution procedure for mixed-integer nonlinear programming formulation of supply chain planning with quantity discounts under demand uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Sisi; Nishi, Tatsushi

2014-11-01

Quantity discount policy is decision-making for trade-off prices between suppliers and manufacturers while production is changeable due to demand fluctuations in a real market. In this paper, quantity discount models which consider selection of contract suppliers, production quantity and inventory simultaneously are addressed. The supply chain planning problem with quantity discounts under demand uncertainty is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP) with integral terms. We apply an outer-approximation method to solve MINLP problems. In order to improve the efficiency of the proposed method, the problem is reformulated as a stochastic model replacing the integral terms by using a normalisation technique. We present numerical examples to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Associations among Selective Attention, Memory Bias, Cognitive Errors and Symptoms of Anxiety in Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watts, Sarah E.; Weems, Carl F.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the linkages among selective attention, memory bias, cognitive errors, and anxiety problems by testing a model of the interrelations among these cognitive variables and childhood anxiety disorder symptoms. A community sample of 81 youth (38 females and 43 males) aged 9-17 years and their parents completed…

Interval MULTIMOORA method with target values of attributes based on interval distance and preference degree: biomaterials selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Arian; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2017-06-01

A target-based MADM method covers beneficial and non-beneficial attributes besides target values for some attributes. Such techniques are considered as the comprehensive forms of MADM approaches. Target-based MADM methods can also be used in traditional decision-making problems in which beneficial and non-beneficial attributes only exist. In many practical selection problems, some attributes have given target values. The values of decision matrix and target-based attributes can be provided as intervals in some of such problems. Some target-based decision-making methods have recently been developed; however, a research gap exists in the area of MADM techniques with target-based attributes under uncertainty of information. We extend the MULTIMOORA method for solving practical material selection problems in which material properties and their target values are given as interval numbers. We employ various concepts of interval computations to reduce degeneration of uncertain data. In this regard, we use interval arithmetic and introduce innovative formula for interval distance of interval numbers to create interval target-based normalization technique. Furthermore, we use a pairwise preference matrix based on the concept of degree of preference of interval numbers to calculate the maximum, minimum, and ranking of these numbers. Two decision-making problems regarding biomaterials selection of hip and knee prostheses are discussed. Preference degree-based ranking lists for subordinate parts of the extended MULTIMOORA method are generated by calculating the relative degrees of preference for the arranged assessment values of the biomaterials. The resultant rankings for the problem are compared with the outcomes of other target-based models in the literature.

Helicopter aeroelastic stability and response - Current topics and future trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, Peretz P.

1990-01-01

This paper presents several current topics in rotary wing aeroelasticity and concludes by attempting to anticipate future trends and developments. These topics are: (1) the role of geometric nonlinearities; (2) structural modeling, and aeroelastic analysis of composite rotor blades; (3) aeroelastic stability and response in forward flight; (4) modeling of coupled rotor/fuselage aeromechanical problems and their active control; and (5) the coupled rotor-fuselage vibration problem and its alleviation by higher harmonic control. Selected results illustrating the fundamental aspects of these topics are presented. Future developments are briefly discussed.

On actuator placement for robust time-optimal control of uncertain flexible spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Sinha, Ravi; Liu, Qiang

1992-01-01

The problem of computing open-loop, on-off jet firing logic for flexible spacecraft in the face of plant modeling uncertainty is investigated. The primary control objective is to achieve a fast maneuvering time with a minimum of structural vibrations during and/or after a maneuver. This paper is also concerned with the problem of selecting a proper pair of jets for practical trade-offs among the maneuvering time, fuel consumption, structural mode excitation, and performance robustness. A time-optimal control problem subject to parameter robustness constraints is formulated. A three-mass-spring model of flexible spacecraft with a rigid-body mode and two flexible modes is used to illustrate the concept.

Neural network for solving convex quadratic bilevel programming problems.

PubMed

He, Xing; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Li, Chaojie

2014-03-01

In this paper, using the idea of successive approximation, we propose a neural network to solve convex quadratic bilevel programming problems (CQBPPs), which is modeled by a nonautonomous differential inclusion. Different from the existing neural network for CQBPP, the model has the least number of state variables and simple structure. Based on the theory of nonsmooth analysis, differential inclusions and Lyapunov-like method, the limit equilibrium points sequence of the proposed neural networks can approximately converge to an optimal solution of CQBPP under certain conditions. Finally, simulation results on two numerical examples and the portfolio selection problem show the effectiveness and performance of the proposed neural network. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Merging universal and indicated prevention programs: the Fast Track model. Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group.

PubMed

2000-01-01

Fast Track is a multisite, multicomponent preventive intervention for young children at high risk for long-term antisocial behavior. Based on a comprehensive developmental model, this intervention includes a universal-level classroom program plus social-skill training, academic tutoring, parent training, and home visiting to improve competencies and reduce problems in a high-risk group of children selected in kindergarten. The theoretical principles and clinical strategies utilized in the Fast Track Project are described to illustrate the interplay between basic developmental research, the understanding of risk and protective factors, and a research-based model of preventive intervention that integrates universal and indicated models of prevention.

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2009-01-01

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

A latent discriminative model-based approach for classification of imaginary motor tasks from EEG data.

PubMed

Saa, Jaime F Delgado; Çetin, Müjdat

2012-04-01

We consider the problem of classification of imaginary motor tasks from electroencephalography (EEG) data for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) and propose a new approach based on hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs). HCRFs are discriminative graphical models that are attractive for this problem because they (1) exploit the temporal structure of EEG; (2) include latent variables that can be used to model different brain states in the signal; and (3) involve learned statistical models matched to the classification task, avoiding some of the limitations of generative models. Our approach involves spatial filtering of the EEG signals and estimation of power spectra based on autoregressive modeling of temporal segments of the EEG signals. Given this time-frequency representation, we select certain frequency bands that are known to be associated with execution of motor tasks. These selected features constitute the data that are fed to the HCRF, parameters of which are learned from training data. Inference algorithms on the HCRFs are used for the classification of motor tasks. We experimentally compare this approach to the best performing methods in BCI competition IV as well as a number of more recent methods and observe that our proposed method yields better classification accuracy.

Concept-oriented indexing of video databases: toward semantic sensitive retrieval and browsing.

PubMed

Fan, Jianping; Luo, Hangzai; Elmagarmid, Ahmed K

2004-07-01

Digital video now plays an important role in medical education, health care, telemedicine and other medical applications. Several content-based video retrieval (CBVR) systems have been proposed in the past, but they still suffer from the following challenging problems: semantic gap, semantic video concept modeling, semantic video classification, and concept-oriented video database indexing and access. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to make some advances toward the final goal to solve these problems. Specifically, the framework includes: 1) a semantic-sensitive video content representation framework by using principal video shots to enhance the quality of features; 2) semantic video concept interpretation by using flexible mixture model to bridge the semantic gap; 3) a novel semantic video-classifier training framework by integrating feature selection, parameter estimation, and model selection seamlessly in a single algorithm; and 4) a concept-oriented video database organization technique through a certain domain-dependent concept hierarchy to enable semantic-sensitive video retrieval and browsing.

An adaptive response surface method for crashworthiness optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Lei; Yang, Ren-Jye; Zhu, Ping

2013-11-01

Response surface-based design optimization has been commonly used for optimizing large-scale design problems in the automotive industry. However, most response surface models are built by a limited number of design points without considering data uncertainty. In addition, the selection of a response surface in the literature is often arbitrary. This article uses a Bayesian metric to systematically select the best available response surface among several candidates in a library while considering data uncertainty. An adaptive, efficient response surface strategy, which minimizes the number of computationally intensive simulations, was developed for design optimization of large-scale complex problems. This methodology was demonstrated by a crashworthiness optimization example.

TOUGH Simulations of the Updegraff's Set of Fluid and Heat Flow Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moridis, G.J.; Pruess

1992-11-01

The TOUGH code [Pruess, 1987] for two-phase flow of water, air, and heat in penneable media has been exercised on a suite of test problems originally selected and simulated by C. D. Updegraff [1989]. These include five 'verification' problems for which analytical or numerical solutions are available, and three 'validation' problems that model laboratory fluid and heat flow experiments. All problems could be run without any code modifications (*). Good and efficient numerical performance, as well as accurate results were obtained throughout. Additional code verification and validation problems from the literature are briefly summarized, and suggestions are given for propermore » applications of TOUGH and related codes.« less

Experimental Design for Estimating Unknown Hydraulic Conductivity in a Confined Aquifer using a Genetic Algorithm and a Reduced Order Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushijima, T.; Yeh, W.

2013-12-01

An optimal experimental design algorithm is developed to select locations for a network of observation wells that provides the maximum information about unknown hydraulic conductivity in a confined, anisotropic aquifer. The design employs a maximal information criterion that chooses, among competing designs, the design that maximizes the sum of squared sensitivities while conforming to specified design constraints. Because that the formulated problem is non-convex and contains integer variables (necessitating a combinatorial search), for a realistically-scaled model, the problem may be difficult, if not impossible, to solve through traditional mathematical programming techniques. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are designed to search out the global optimum; however because a GA requires a large number of calls to a groundwater model, the formulated optimization problem may still be infeasible to solve. To overcome this, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) is applied to the groundwater model to reduce its dimension. The information matrix in the full model space can then be searched without solving the full model.

Spectral Elements Analysis for Viscoelastic Fluids at High Weissenberg Number Using Logarithmic conformation Tensor Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafari, Azadeh; Deville, Michel O.; Fiétier, Nicolas

2008-09-01

This study discusses the capability of the constitutive laws for the matrix logarithm of the conformation tensor (LCT model) within the framework of the spectral elements method. The high Weissenberg number problems (HWNP) usually produce a lack of convergence of the numerical algorithms. Even though the question whether the HWNP is a purely numerical problem or rather a breakdown of the constitutive law of the model has remained somewhat of a mystery, it has been recognized that the selection of an appropriate constitutive equation constitutes a very crucial step although implementing a suitable numerical technique is still important for successful discrete modeling of non-Newtonian flows. The LCT model formulation of the viscoelastic equations originally suggested by Fattal and Kupferman is applied for 2-dimensional (2D) FENE-CR model. The Planar Poiseuille flow is considered as a benchmark problem to test this representation at high Weissenberg number. The numerical results are compared with numerical solution of the standard constitutive equation.

Heuristic Classification.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

learned not only a specific thing but also a model for understanding other things like it that one may encounter. ( Bruner , 1960) Abstract ’- A broad...motivation of wanting to formalize what we have learned about building expert systems. How can we classify problems? How can we select problems that are...nor sufficient characteristic of an EDUCATED-PERSON). Illustrating the power of a knowledge-level analysis, we discover that the people and book

Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling method for health care delivery research-part 2: report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

PubMed

Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten J; Crown, William; Padula, William V; Wong, Peter K; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Higashi, Mitchell K; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2015-03-01

In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling can be used more effectively than other modeling methods. The hierarchical relationship between the health care delivery system, providers, patients, and other stakeholders exhibits a level of complexity that ought to be captured using dynamic simulation modeling methods. As a tool to help researchers decide whether dynamic simulation modeling is an appropriate method for modeling the effects of an intervention on a health care system, we presented the System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence (SIMULATE) checklist consisting of eight elements. This report builds on the previous work, systematically comparing each of the three most commonly used dynamic simulation modeling methods-system dynamics, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based modeling. We review criteria for selecting the most suitable method depending on 1) the purpose-type of problem and research questions being investigated, 2) the object-scope of the model, and 3) the method to model the object to achieve the purpose. Finally, we provide guidance for emerging good practices for dynamic simulation modeling in the health sector, covering all aspects, from the engagement of decision makers in the model design through model maintenance and upkeep. We conclude by providing some recommendations about the application of these methods to add value to informed decision making, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement, starting with the problem definition. Finally, we identify areas in which further methodological development will likely occur given the growing "volume, velocity and variety" and availability of "big data" to provide empirical evidence and techniques such as machine learning for parameter estimation in dynamic simulation models. Upon reviewing this report in addition to using the SIMULATE checklist, the readers should be able to identify whether dynamic simulation modeling methods are appropriate to address the problem at hand and to recognize the differences of these methods from those of other, more traditional modeling approaches such as Markov models and decision trees. This report provides an overview of these modeling methods and examples of health care system problems in which such methods have been useful. The primary aim of the report was to aid decisions as to whether these simulation methods are appropriate to address specific health systems problems. The report directs readers to other resources for further education on these individual modeling methods for system interventions in the emerging field of health care delivery science and implementation. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

[Mathematical model of technical equipment of a clinical-diagnostic laboratory].

PubMed

Bukin, S I; Busygin, D V; Tilevich, M E

1990-01-01

The paper is concerned with the problems of technical equipment of standard clinico-diagnostic laboratories (CDL) in this country. The authors suggest a mathematic model that may minimize expenditures for laboratory studies. The model enables the following problems to be solved: to issue scientifically-based recommendations for technical equipment of CDL; to validate the medico-technical requirements for newly devised items; to select the optimum types of uniform items; to define optimal technical decisions at the stage of the design; to determine the lab assistant's labour productivity and the cost of some investigations; to compute the medical laboratory engineering requirement for treatment and prophylactic institutions of this country.

Early adolescence behavior problems and timing of poverty during childhood: A comparison of lifecourse models.

PubMed

Mazza, Julia Rachel S E; Lambert, Jean; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M

2017-03-01

Poverty is a well-established risk factor for the development of behavior problems, yet little is known about how timing of exposure to childhood poverty relates to behavior problems in early adolescence. To examine the differential effects of the timing of poverty between birth and late childhood on behavior problems in early adolescence by modeling lifecourse models, corresponding to sensitive periods, accumulation of risk and social mobility models. We used the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (N = 2120). Poverty was defined as living below the low-income thresholds defined by Statistics Canada and grouped into three time periods: between ages 0-3 years, 5-7 years, and 8-12 years. Main outcomes were teacher's report of hyperactivity, opposition and physical aggression at age 13 years. Structured linear regression analyses were conducted to estimate the contribution of poverty during the three selected time periods to behavior problems. Partial F-tests were used to compare nested lifecourse models to a full saturated model (all poverty main effects and possible interactions). Families who experienced poverty at all time periods were 9.3% of the original sample. Those who were poor at least one time period were 39.2%. The accumulation of risk model was the best fitting model for hyperactivity and opposition. The risk for physical aggression problems was associated only to poverty between 0 and 3 years supporting the sensitive period. Early and prolonged exposure to childhood poverty predicted higher levels of behavior problems in early adolescence. Antipoverty policies targeting the first years of life and long term support to pregnant women living in poverty are likely to reduce behavior problems in early adolescence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Fuzzy-Based Decision Support Model for Selecting the Best Dialyser Flux in Haemodialysis.

PubMed

Oztürk, Necla; Tozan, Hakan

2015-01-01

Decision making is an important procedure for every organization. The procedure is particularly challenging for complicated multi-criteria problems. Selection of dialyser flux is one of the decisions routinely made for haemodialysis treatment provided for chronic kidney failure patients. This study provides a decision support model for selecting the best dialyser flux between high-flux and low-flux dialyser alternatives. The preferences of decision makers were collected via a questionnaire. A total of 45 questionnaires filled by dialysis physicians and nephrologists were assessed. A hybrid fuzzy-based decision support software that enables the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) was used to evaluate the flux selection model. In conclusion, the results showed that a high-flux dialyser is the best. option for haemodialysis treatment.

Measuring CAMD technique performance. 2. How "druglike" are drugs? Implications of Random test set selection exemplified using druglikeness classification models.

PubMed

Good, Andrew C; Hermsmeier, Mark A

2007-01-01

Research into the advancement of computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) has a tendency to focus on the discipline of algorithm development. Such efforts are often wrought to the detriment of the data set selection and analysis used in said algorithm validation. Here we highlight the potential problems this can cause in the context of druglikeness classification. More rigorous efforts are applied to the selection of decoy (nondruglike) molecules from the ACD. Comparisons are made between model performance using the standard technique of random test set creation with test sets derived from explicit ontological separation by drug class. The dangers of viewing druglike space as sufficiently coherent to permit simple classification are highlighted. In addition the issues inherent in applying unfiltered data and random test set selection to (Q)SAR models utilizing large and supposedly heterogeneous databases are discussed.

Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.

2008-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.

Philosophical Models of Man: With Special Reference to the Teaching of ESN Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burnwood, Les. R. V.; Brady, Carol A.

1981-01-01

Two opposing models of man: deterministic and libertarian are outlined and contrasted, and certain selected practical and ethical consequences for the teaching of children are drawn out. Reasons are given for suggesting that the problems are especially acute for the teacher of educationally sub-normal children. (Author)

Low Speed Rot or/Fuselage Interactional Aerodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnwell, Richard W.; Prichard, Devon S.

2003-01-01

This report presents work performed under a Cooperative Research Agreement between Virginia Tech and the NASA Langley Research Center. The work involved development of computational techniques for modeling helicopter rotor/airframe aerodynamic interaction. A brief overview of the problem is presented, the modeling techniques are described, and selected example calculations are briefly discussed.

Defense Spending and Regional Growth: An Examination of an Export-Base Model and an Econometric Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

consumer preferences provide influences that can stimulate the rate of growth of the endogenous and/or exogenous income industries. B. EXPORT INDUSTRIES...location quotient was selected to alleviate 12 some of the problems created by consumer preferences and expendi- ture patterns. This value was compared

Selection of relevant input variables in storm water quality modeling by multiobjective evolutionary polynomial regression paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creaco, E.; Berardi, L.; Sun, Siao; Giustolisi, O.; Savic, D.

2016-04-01

The growing availability of field data, from information and communication technologies (ICTs) in "smart" urban infrastructures, allows data modeling to understand complex phenomena and to support management decisions. Among the analyzed phenomena, those related to storm water quality modeling have recently been gaining interest in the scientific literature. Nonetheless, the large amount of available data poses the problem of selecting relevant variables to describe a phenomenon and enable robust data modeling. This paper presents a procedure for the selection of relevant input variables using the multiobjective evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR-MOGA) paradigm. The procedure is based on scrutinizing the explanatory variables that appear inside the set of EPR-MOGA symbolic model expressions of increasing complexity and goodness of fit to target output. The strategy also enables the selection to be validated by engineering judgement. In such context, the multiple case study extension of EPR-MOGA, called MCS-EPR-MOGA, is adopted. The application of the proposed procedure to modeling storm water quality parameters in two French catchments shows that it was able to significantly reduce the number of explanatory variables for successive analyses. Finally, the EPR-MOGA models obtained after the input selection are compared with those obtained by using the same technique without benefitting from input selection and with those obtained in previous works where other data-modeling techniques were used on the same data. The comparison highlights the effectiveness of both EPR-MOGA and the input selection procedure.

Recent advances in reduction methods for nonlinear problems. [in structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1981-01-01

Status and some recent developments in the application of reduction methods to nonlinear structural mechanics problems are summarized. The aspects of reduction methods discussed herein include: (1) selection of basis vectors in nonlinear static and dynamic problems, (2) application of reduction methods in nonlinear static analysis of structures subjected to prescribed edge displacements, and (3) use of reduction methods in conjunction with mixed finite element models. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of reduction methods in nonlinear problems. Also, a number of research areas which have high potential for application of reduction methods are identified.

More efficient evolutionary strategies for model calibration with watershed model for demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baggett, J. S.; Skahill, B. E.

2008-12-01

Evolutionary strategies allow automatic calibration of more complex models than traditional gradient based approaches, but they are more computationally intensive. We present several efficiency enhancements for evolution strategies, many of which are not new, but when combined have been shown to dramatically decrease the number of model runs required for calibration of synthetic problems. To reduce the number of expensive model runs we employ a surrogate objective function for an adaptively determined fraction of the population at each generation (Kern et al., 2006). We demonstrate improvements to the adaptive ranking strategy that increase its efficiency while sacrificing little reliability and further reduce the number of model runs required in densely sampled parts of parameter space. Furthermore, we include a gradient individual in each generation that is usually not selected when the search is in a global phase or when the derivatives are poorly approximated, but when selected near a smooth local minimum can dramatically increase convergence speed (Tahk et al., 2007). Finally, the selection of the gradient individual is used to adapt the size of the population near local minima. We show, by incorporating these enhancements into the Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy (CMAES; Hansen, 2006), that their synergetic effect is greater than their individual parts. This hybrid evolutionary strategy exploits smooth structure when it is present but degrades to an ordinary evolutionary strategy, at worst, if smoothness is not present. Calibration of 2D-3D synthetic models with the modified CMAES requires approximately 10%-25% of the model runs of ordinary CMAES. Preliminary demonstration of this hybrid strategy will be shown for watershed model calibration problems. Hansen, N. (2006). The CMA Evolution Strategy: A Comparing Review. In J.A. Lozano, P. Larrañga, I. Inza and E. Bengoetxea (Eds.). Towards a new evolutionary computation. Advances in estimation of distribution algorithms. pp. 75-102, Springer Kern, S., N. Hansen and P. Koumoutsakos (2006). Local Meta-Models for Optimization Using Evolution Strategies. In Ninth International Conference on Parallel Problem Solving from Nature PPSN IX, Proceedings, pp.939-948, Berlin: Springer. Tahk, M., Woo, H., and Park. M, (2007). A hybrid optimization of evolutionary and gradient search. Engineering Optimization, (39), 87-104.

Inference on the Strength of Balancing Selection for Epistatically Interacting Loci

PubMed Central

Buzbas, Erkan Ozge; Joyce, Paul; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2011-01-01

Existing inference methods for estimating the strength of balancing selection in multi-locus genotypes rely on the assumption that there are no epistatic interactions between loci. Complex systems in which balancing selection is prevalent, such as sets of human immune system genes, are known to contain components that interact epistatically. Therefore, current methods may not produce reliable inference on the strength of selection at these loci. In this paper, we address this problem by presenting statistical methods that can account for epistatic interactions in making inference about balancing selection. A theoretical result due to Fearnhead (2006) is used to build a multi-locus Wright-Fisher model of balancing selection, allowing for epistatic interactions among loci. Antagonistic and synergistic types of interactions are examined. The joint posterior distribution of the selection and mutation parameters is sampled by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and the plausibility of models is assessed via Bayes factors. As a component of the inference process, an algorithm to generate multi-locus allele frequencies under balancing selection models with epistasis is also presented. Recent evidence on interactions among a set of human immune system genes is introduced as a motivating biological system for the epistatic model, and data on these genes are used to demonstrate the methods. PMID:21277883

Asymmetric information in health insurance: evidence from the National Medical Expenditure Survey.

PubMed

Cardon, J H; Hendel, I

2001-01-01

Adverse selection is perceived to be a major source of market failure in insurance markets. There is little empirical evidence on the extent of the problem. We estimate a structural model of health insurance and health care choices using data on single individuals from the NMES. A robust prediction of adverse-selection models is that riskier types buy more coverage and, on average, end up using more care. We test for unobservables linking health insurance status and health care consumption. We find no evidence of informational asymmetries.

Forecasting volatility with neural regression: a contribution to model adequacy.

PubMed

Refenes, A N; Holt, W T

2001-01-01

Neural nets' usefulness for forecasting is limited by problems of overfitting and the lack of rigorous procedures for model identification, selection and adequacy testing. This paper describes a methodology for neural model misspecification testing. We introduce a generalization of the Durbin-Watson statistic for neural regression and discuss the general issues of misspecification testing using residual analysis. We derive a generalized influence matrix for neural estimators which enables us to evaluate the distribution of the statistic. We deploy Monte Carlo simulation to compare the power of the test for neural and linear regressors. While residual testing is not a sufficient condition for model adequacy, it is nevertheless a necessary condition to demonstrate that the model is a good approximation to the data generating process, particularly as neural-network estimation procedures are susceptible to partial convergence. The work is also an important step toward developing rigorous procedures for neural model identification, selection and adequacy testing which have started to appear in the literature. We demonstrate its applicability in the nontrivial problem of forecasting implied volatility innovations using high-frequency stock index options. Each step of the model building process is validated using statistical tests to verify variable significance and model adequacy with the results confirming the presence of nonlinear relationships in implied volatility innovations.

Bayesian inference for the genetic control of water deficit tolerance in spring wheat by stochastic search variable selection.

PubMed

Safari, Parviz; Danyali, Syyedeh Fatemeh; Rahimi, Mehdi

2018-06-02

Drought is the main abiotic stress seriously influencing wheat production. Information about the inheritance of drought tolerance is necessary to determine the most appropriate strategy to develop tolerant cultivars and populations. In this study, generation means analysis to identify the genetic effects controlling grain yield inheritance in water deficit and normal conditions was considered as a model selection problem in a Bayesian framework. Stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) was applied to identify the most important genetic effects and the best fitted models using different generations obtained from two crosses applying two water regimes in two growing seasons. The SSVS is used to evaluate the effect of each variable on the dependent variable via posterior variable inclusion probabilities. The model with the highest posterior probability is selected as the best model. In this study, the grain yield was controlled by the main effects (additive and non-additive effects) and epistatic. The results demonstrate that breeding methods such as recurrent selection and subsequent pedigree method and hybrid production can be useful to improve grain yield.

Evaluation and selection of sustainable suppliers in supply chain using new GP-DEA model with imprecise data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Saeid; Dodkanloi Milan, Mehran; Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa

2017-11-01

Nowadays, with respect to knowledge growth about enterprise sustainability, sustainable supplier selection is considered a vital factor in sustainable supply chain management. On the other hand, usually in real problems, the data are imprecise. One method that is helpful for the evaluation and selection of the sustainable supplier and has the ability to use a variety of data types is data envelopment analysis (DEA). In the present article, first, the supplier efficiency is measured with respect to all economic, social and environmental dimensions using DEA and applying imprecise data. Then, to have a general evaluation of the suppliers, the DEA model is developed using imprecise data based on goal programming (GP). Integrating the set of criteria changes the new model into a coherent framework for sustainable supplier selection. Moreover, employing this model in a multilateral sustainable supplier selection can be an incentive for the suppliers to move towards environmental, social and economic activities. Improving environmental, economic and social performance will mean improving the supply chain performance. Finally, the application of the proposed approach is presented with a real dataset.

Conducting field studies for testing pesticide leaching models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Charles N.; Parrish, Rudolph S.; Brown, David S.

1990-01-01

A variety of predictive models are being applied to evaluate the transport and transformation of pesticides in the environment. These include well known models such as the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Risk of Unsaturated-Saturated Transport and Transformation Interactions for Chemical Concentrations Model (RUSTIC) and the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems Model (GLEAMS). The potentially large impacts of using these models as tools for developing pesticide management strategies and regulatory decisions necessitates development of sound model validation protocols. This paper offers guidance on many of the theoretical and practical problems encountered in the design and implementation of field-scale model validation studies. Recommendations are provided for site selection and characterization, test compound selection, data needs, measurement techniques, statistical design considerations and sampling techniques. A strategy is provided for quantitatively testing models using field measurements.

Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

Long-term care information systems: an overview of the selection process.

PubMed

Nahm, Eun-Shim; Mills, Mary Etta; Feege, Barbara

2006-06-01

Under the current Medicare Prospective Payment System method and the ever-changing managed care environment, the long-term care information system is vital to providing quality care and to surviving in business. system selection process should be an interdisciplinary effort involving all necessary stakeholders for the proposed system. The system selection process can be modeled following the Systems Developmental Life Cycle: identifying problems, opportunities, and objectives; determining information requirements; analyzing system needs; designing the recommended system; and developing and documenting software.

Optimizing selective cutting strategies for maximum carbon stocks and yield of Moso bamboo forest using BIOME-BGC model.

PubMed

Mao, Fangjie; Zhou, Guomo; Li, Pingheng; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

2017-04-15

The selective cutting method currently used in Moso bamboo forests has resulted in a reduction of stand productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. Given the time and labor expense involved in addressing this problem manually, simulation using an ecosystem model is the most suitable approach. The BIOME-BGC model was improved to suit managed Moso bamboo forests, which was adapted to include age structure, specific ecological processes and management measures of Moso bamboo forest. A field selective cutting experiment was done in nine plots with three cutting intensities (high-intensity, moderate-intensity and low-intensity) during 2010-2013, and biomass of these plots was measured for model validation. Then four selective cutting scenarios were simulated by the improved BIOME-BGC model to optimize the selective cutting timings, intervals, retained ages and intensities. The improved model matched the observed aboveground carbon density and yield of different plots, with a range of relative error from 9.83% to 15.74%. The results of different selective cutting scenarios suggested that the optimal selective cutting measure should be cutting 30% culms of age 6, 80% culms of age 7, and all culms thereafter (above age 8) in winter every other year. The vegetation carbon density and harvested carbon density of this selective cutting method can increase by 74.63% and 21.5%, respectively, compared with the current selective cutting measure. The optimized selective cutting measure developed in this study can significantly promote carbon density, yield, and carbon sink capacity in Moso bamboo forests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of hypercritical states in elastic and inelastic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowalczk, Maciej

The author raises a wide range of problems whose common characteristic is an analysis of hypercritical states in elastic and inelastic systems. the article consists of two basic parts. The first part primarily discusses problems of modelling hypercritical states, while the second analyzes numerical methods (so-called continuation methods) used to solve non-linear problems. The original approaches for modelling hypercritical states found in this article include the combination of plasticity theory and an energy condition for cracking, accounting for the variability and cyclical nature of the forms of fracture of a brittle material under a die, and the combination of plasticity theory and a simplified description of the phenomenon of localization along a discontinuity line. The author presents analytical solutions of three non-linear problems for systems made of elastic/brittle/plastic and elastic/ideally plastic materials. The author proceeds to discuss the analytical basics of continuation methods and analyzes the significance of the parameterization of non-linear problems, provides a method for selecting control parameters based on an analysis of the rank of a rectangular matrix of a uniform system of increment equations, and also provides a new method for selecting an equilibrium path originating from a bifurcation point. The author provides a general outline of continuation methods based on an analysis of the rank of a matrix of a corrective system of equations. The author supplements his theoretical solutions with numerical solutions of non-linear problems for rod systems and problems of the plastic disintegration of a notched rectangular plastic plate.

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

Optimal SVM parameter selection for non-separable and unbalanced datasets.

PubMed

Jiang, Peng; Missoum, Samy; Chen, Zhao

2014-10-01

This article presents a study of three validation metrics used for the selection of optimal parameters of a support vector machine (SVM) classifier in the case of non-separable and unbalanced datasets. This situation is often encountered when the data is obtained experimentally or clinically. The three metrics selected in this work are the area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, and balanced accuracy. These validation metrics are tested using computational data only, which enables the creation of fully separable sets of data. This way, non-separable datasets, representative of a real-world problem, can be created by projection onto a lower dimensional sub-space. The knowledge of the separable dataset, unknown in real-world problems, provides a reference to compare the three validation metrics using a quantity referred to as the "weighted likelihood". As an application example, the study investigates a classification model for hip fracture prediction. The data is obtained from a parameterized finite element model of a femur. The performance of the various validation metrics is studied for several levels of separability, ratios of unbalance, and training set sizes.

Towards a richer evolutionary game theory

PubMed Central

McNamara, John M.

2013-01-01

Most examples of the application of evolutionary game theory to problems in biology involve highly simplified models. I contend that it is time to move on and include much more richness in models. In particular, more thought needs to be given to the importance of (i) between-individual variation; (ii) the interaction between individuals, and hence the process by which decisions are reached; (iii) the ecological and life-history context of the situation; (iv) the traits that are under selection, and (v) the underlying psychological mechanisms that lead to behaviour. I give examples where including variation between individuals fundamentally changes predicted outcomes of a game. Variation also selects for real-time responses, again resulting in changed outcomes. Variation can select for other traits, such as choosiness and social sensitivity. More generally, many problems involve coevolution of more than one trait. I identify situations where a reductionist approach, in which a game is isolated from is ecological setting, can be misleading. I also highlight the need to consider flexibility of behaviour, mental states and other issues concerned with the evolution of mechanism. PMID:23966616

Topic Modeling of NASA Space System Problem Reports: Research in Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layman, Lucas; Nikora, Allen P.; Meek, Joshua; Menzies, Tim

2016-01-01

Problem reports at NASA are similar to bug reports: they capture defects found during test, post-launch operational anomalies, and document the investigation and corrective action of the issue. These artifacts are a rich source of lessons learned for NASA, but are expensive to analyze since problem reports are comprised primarily of natural language text. We apply topic modeling to a corpus of NASA problem reports to extract trends in testing and operational failures. We collected 16,669 problem reports from six NASA space flight missions and applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling to the document corpus. We analyze the most popular topics within and across missions, and how popular topics changed over the lifetime of a mission. We find that hardware material and flight software issues are common during the integration and testing phase, while ground station software and equipment issues are more common during the operations phase. We identify a number of challenges in topic modeling for trend analysis: 1) that the process of selecting the topic modeling parameters lacks definitive guidance, 2) defining semantically-meaningful topic labels requires nontrivial effort and domain expertise, 3) topic models derived from the combined corpus of the six missions were biased toward the larger missions, and 4) topics must be semantically distinct as well as cohesive to be useful. Nonetheless,topic modeling can identify problem themes within missions and across mission lifetimes, providing useful feedback to engineers and project managers.

Elitist Binary Wolf Search Algorithm for Heuristic Feature Selection in High-Dimensional Bioinformatics Datasets.

PubMed

Li, Jinyan; Fong, Simon; Wong, Raymond K; Millham, Richard; Wong, Kelvin K L

2017-06-28

Due to the high-dimensional characteristics of dataset, we propose a new method based on the Wolf Search Algorithm (WSA) for optimising the feature selection problem. The proposed approach uses the natural strategy established by Charles Darwin; that is, 'It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but the most adaptable'. This means that in the evolution of a swarm, the elitists are motivated to quickly obtain more and better resources. The memory function helps the proposed method to avoid repeat searches for the worst position in order to enhance the effectiveness of the search, while the binary strategy simplifies the feature selection problem into a similar problem of function optimisation. Furthermore, the wrapper strategy gathers these strengthened wolves with the classifier of extreme learning machine to find a sub-dataset with a reasonable number of features that offers the maximum correctness of global classification models. The experimental results from the six public high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets tested demonstrate that the proposed method can best some of the conventional feature selection methods up to 29% in classification accuracy, and outperform previous WSAs by up to 99.81% in computational time.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onuet, Semih; Soner, Selin

Site selection is an important issue in waste management. Selection of the appropriate solid waste site requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because of system complexity. Evaluation procedures involve several objectives, and it is often necessary to compromise among possibly conflicting tangible and intangible factors. For these reasons, multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been found to be a useful approach to solve this kind of problem. Different MCDM models have been applied to solve this problem. But most of them are basically mathematical and ignore qualitative and often subjective considerations. It is easier for a decision-maker tomore » describe a value for an alternative by using linguistic terms. In the fuzzy-based method, the rating of each alternative is described using linguistic terms, which can also be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, there have not been any studies focused on the site selection in waste management using both fuzzy TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) and AHP (analytical hierarchy process) techniques. In this paper, a fuzzy TOPSIS based methodology is applied to solve the solid waste transshipment site selection problem in Istanbul, Turkey. The criteria weights are calculated by using the AHP.« less

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection in Computational Biology

PubMed Central

Lillacci, Gabriele; Khammash, Mustafa

2010-01-01

A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants) are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection. PMID:20221262

Travel Demand Model Development and Application Guidelines (Rev.)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-06-01

There is a new challenge confronting state and regional agencies -- the : selection and development of appropriate analysis tools for application to the : planning problems presented by the 1990 Federal Clear Air Act Amendments (CAAA), : the 1991 Fed...

A Conceptual Project of a Device for Human Wrist Functional Rehabilitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowski, B.; Olinski, M.; Wudarczyk, S.; Gronowicz, A.

2016-12-01

In the paper, the problems of devices supporting functional rehabilitation of a human wrist were addressed. A literature review and a description of selected devices together with an indication of their advantages and disadvantages were conducted. The biomechanical structure of a human wrist was analyzed. On this basis and after taking into consideration ranges of motion of the selected joints the concept of a new mechanism was developed. A 3D model of the device was built in the Autodesk Inventor system. For the purpose of simulations another model was developed in the MSC Adams system. Issues of drives and sensors selection, as well as requirements for the control system, were examined.

Empirical Performance of Cross-Validation With Oracle Methods in a Genomics Context.

PubMed

Martinez, Josue G; Carroll, Raymond J; Müller, Samuel; Sampson, Joshua N; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2011-11-01

When employing model selection methods with oracle properties such as the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and the Adaptive Lasso, it is typical to estimate the smoothing parameter by m-fold cross-validation, for example, m = 10. In problems where the true regression function is sparse and the signals large, such cross-validation typically works well. However, in regression modeling of genomic studies involving Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP), the true regression functions, while thought to be sparse, do not have large signals. We demonstrate empirically that in such problems, the number of selected variables using SCAD and the Adaptive Lasso, with 10-fold cross-validation, is a random variable that has considerable and surprising variation. Similar remarks apply to non-oracle methods such as the Lasso. Our study strongly questions the suitability of performing only a single run of m-fold cross-validation with any oracle method, and not just the SCAD and Adaptive Lasso.

Data Mining Technologies Inspired from Visual Principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zongben

In this talk we review the recent work done by our group on data mining (DM) technologies deduced from simulating visual principle. Through viewing a DM problem as a cognition problems and treading a data set as an image with each light point located at a datum position, we developed a series of high efficient algorithms for clustering, classification and regression via mimicking visual principles. In pattern recognition, human eyes seem to possess a singular aptitude to group objects and find important structure in an efficient way. Thus, a DM algorithm simulating visual system may solve some basic problems in DM research. From this point of view, we proposed a new approach for data clustering by modeling the blurring effect of lateral retinal interconnections based on scale space theory. In this approach, as the data image blurs, smaller light blobs merge into large ones until the whole image becomes one light blob at a low enough level of resolution. By identifying each blob with a cluster, the blurring process then generates a family of clustering along the hierarchy. The proposed approach provides unique solutions to many long standing problems, such as the cluster validity and the sensitivity to initialization problems, in clustering. We extended such an approach to classification and regression problems, through combatively employing the Weber's law in physiology and the cell response classification facts. The resultant classification and regression algorithms are proven to be very efficient and solve the problems of model selection and applicability to huge size of data set in DM technologies. We finally applied the similar idea to the difficult parameter setting problem in support vector machine (SVM). Viewing the parameter setting problem as a recognition problem of choosing a visual scale at which the global and local structures of a data set can be preserved, and the difference between the two structures be maximized in the feature space, we derived a direct parameter setting formula for the Gaussian SVM. The simulations and applications show that the suggested formula significantly outperforms the known model selection methods in terms of efficiency and precision.

A Pareto-based Ensemble with Feature and Instance Selection for Learning from Multi-Class Imbalanced Datasets.

PubMed

Fernández, Alberto; Carmona, Cristobal José; José Del Jesus, María; Herrera, Francisco

2017-09-01

Imbalanced classification is related to those problems that have an uneven distribution among classes. In addition to the former, when instances are located into the overlapped areas, the correct modeling of the problem becomes harder. Current solutions for both issues are often focused on the binary case study, as multi-class datasets require an additional effort to be addressed. In this research, we overcome these problems by carrying out a combination between feature and instance selections. Feature selection will allow simplifying the overlapping areas easing the generation of rules to distinguish among the classes. Selection of instances from all classes will address the imbalance itself by finding the most appropriate class distribution for the learning task, as well as possibly removing noise and difficult borderline examples. For the sake of obtaining an optimal joint set of features and instances, we embedded the searching for both parameters in a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm, using the C4.5 decision tree as baseline classifier in this wrapper approach. The multi-objective scheme allows taking a double advantage: the search space becomes broader, and we may provide a set of different solutions in order to build an ensemble of classifiers. This proposal has been contrasted versus several state-of-the-art solutions on imbalanced classification showing excellent results in both binary and multi-class problems.

Large biases in regression-based constituent flux estimates: causes and diagnostic tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2014-01-01

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression-based models can produce severely biased estimates of long-term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven-parameter model, LOADEST five-parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST-7 and LOADEST-5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.

Sample selection and spatial models of housing price indexes, and, A disequilibrium analysis of the U.S. gasoline market using panel data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Haixin

This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part studies the sample selection and spatial models of housing price index using transaction data on detached single-family houses of two California metropolitan areas from 1990 through 2008. House prices are often spatially correlated due to shared amenities, or when the properties are viewed as close substitutes in a housing submarket. There have been many studies that address spatial correlation in the context of housing markets. However, none has used spatial models to construct housing price indexes at zip code level for the entire time period analyzed in this dissertation to the best of my knowledge. In this paper, I study a first-order autoregressive spatial model with four different weighing matrix schemes. Four sets of housing price indexes are constructed accordingly. Gatzlaff and Haurin (1997, 1998) study the sample selection problem in housing index by using Heckman's two-step method. This method, however, is generally inefficient and can cause multicollinearity problem. Also, it requires data on unsold houses in order to carry out the first-step probit regression. Maximum likelihood (ML) method can be used to estimate a truncated incidental model which allows one to correct for sample selection based on transaction data only. However, convergence problem is very prevalent in practice. In this paper I adopt Lewbel's (2007) sample selection correction method which does not require one to model or estimate the selection model, except for some very general assumptions. I then extend this method to correct for spatial correlation. In the second part, I analyze the U.S. gasoline market with a disequilibrium model that allows lagged-latent variables, endogenous prices, and panel data with fixed effects. Most existing studies (see the survey of Espey, 1998, Energy Economics) of the gasoline market assume equilibrium. In practice, however, prices do not always adjust fast enough to clear the market. Equilibrium assumptions greatly simplify statistical inference, but are very restrictive and can produce conflicting estimates. For example, econometric models of markets that assume equilibrium often produce more elastic demand price elasticity than their disequilibrium counterparts (Holt and Johnson, 1989, Review of Economics and Statistics, Oczkowski, 1998, Economics Letters). The few studies that allow disequilibrium, however, have been limited to macroeconomic time-series data without lagged-latent variables. While time series data allows one to investigate national trends, it cannot be used to identify and analyze regional differences and the role of local markets. Exclusion of the lagged-latent variables is also undesirable because such variables capture adjustment costs and inter-temporal spillovers. Simulation methods offer tractable solutions to dynamic and panel data disequilibrium models (Lee, 1997, Journal of Econometrics), but assume normally distributed errors. This paper compares estimates of price/income elasticity and excess supply/demand across time periods, regions, and model specifications, using both equilibrium and disequilibrium methods. In the equilibrium model, I compare the within group estimator with Anderson and Hsiao's first-difference 2SLS estimator. In the disequilibrium model, I extend Amemiya's 2SLS by using Newey's efficient estimator with optimal instruments.

Dynamic Hop Service Differentiation Model for End-to-End QoS Provisioning in Multi-Hop Wireless Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youn, Joo-Sang; Seok, Seung-Joon; Kang, Chul-Hee

This paper presents a new QoS model for end-to-end service provisioning in multi-hop wireless networks. In legacy IEEE 802.11e based multi-hop wireless networks, the fixed assignment of service classes according to flow's priority at every node causes priority inversion problem when performing end-to-end service differentiation. Thus, this paper proposes a new QoS provisioning model called Dynamic Hop Service Differentiation (DHSD) to alleviate the problem and support effective service differentiation between end-to-end nodes. Many previous works for QoS model through the 802.11e based service differentiation focus on packet scheduling on several service queues with different service rate and service priority. Our model, however, concentrates on a dynamic class selection scheme, called Per Hop Class Assignment (PHCA), in the node's MAC layer, which selects a proper service class for each packet, in accordance with queue states and service requirement, in every node along the end-to-end route of the packet. The proposed QoS solution is evaluated using the OPNET simulator. The simulation results show that the proposed model outperforms both best-effort and 802.11e based strict priority service models in mobile ad hoc environments.

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.

2007-01-01

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modelling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion which may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of an l(sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

A Requirements Analysis Model for Selection of Personal Computer (PC) software in Air Force Organizations

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

Institute of Technology Air University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Systems Management Dexter R... management system software Diag/Prob Diagnosis and problem solving or problem finding GR Graphics software Int/Transp Interoperability and...language software Plan/D.S. Planning and decision support or decision making PM Program management software SC Systems for Command, Control, Communications

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.; Hammer, J. M.; Morris, N. M.; Knaeuper, A. E.; Brown, E. N.; Lewis, C. M.; Yoon, W. C.

1984-01-01

Two project areas were pursued: the intelligent cockpit and human problem solving. The first area involves an investigation of the use of advanced software engineering methods to aid aircraft crews in procedure selection and execution. The second area is focused on human problem solving in dynamic environments, particulary in terms of identification of rule-based models land alternative approaches to training and aiding. Progress in each area is discussed.

Reconstructing Networks from Profit Sequences in Evolutionary Games via a Multiobjective Optimization Approach with Lasso Initialization

PubMed Central

Wu, Kai; Liu, Jing; Wang, Shuai

2016-01-01

Evolutionary games (EG) model a common type of interactions in various complex, networked, natural and social systems. Given such a system with only profit sequences being available, reconstructing the interacting structure of EG networks is fundamental to understand and control its collective dynamics. Existing approaches used to handle this problem, such as the lasso, a convex optimization method, need a user-defined constant to control the tradeoff between the natural sparsity of networks and measurement error (the difference between observed data and simulated data). However, a shortcoming of these approaches is that it is not easy to determine these key parameters which can maximize the performance. In contrast to these approaches, we first model the EG network reconstruction problem as a multiobjective optimization problem (MOP), and then develop a framework which involves multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), followed by solution selection based on knee regions, termed as MOEANet, to solve this MOP. We also design an effective initialization operator based on the lasso for MOEA. We apply the proposed method to reconstruct various types of synthetic and real-world networks, and the results show that our approach is effective to avoid the above parameter selecting problem and can reconstruct EG networks with high accuracy. PMID:27886244

Reconstructing Networks from Profit Sequences in Evolutionary Games via a Multiobjective Optimization Approach with Lasso Initialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kai; Liu, Jing; Wang, Shuai

2016-11-01

Evolutionary games (EG) model a common type of interactions in various complex, networked, natural and social systems. Given such a system with only profit sequences being available, reconstructing the interacting structure of EG networks is fundamental to understand and control its collective dynamics. Existing approaches used to handle this problem, such as the lasso, a convex optimization method, need a user-defined constant to control the tradeoff between the natural sparsity of networks and measurement error (the difference between observed data and simulated data). However, a shortcoming of these approaches is that it is not easy to determine these key parameters which can maximize the performance. In contrast to these approaches, we first model the EG network reconstruction problem as a multiobjective optimization problem (MOP), and then develop a framework which involves multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), followed by solution selection based on knee regions, termed as MOEANet, to solve this MOP. We also design an effective initialization operator based on the lasso for MOEA. We apply the proposed method to reconstruct various types of synthetic and real-world networks, and the results show that our approach is effective to avoid the above parameter selecting problem and can reconstruct EG networks with high accuracy.

Combined rule extraction and feature elimination in supervised classification.

PubMed

Liu, Sheng; Patel, Ronak Y; Daga, Pankaj R; Liu, Haining; Fu, Gang; Doerksen, Robert J; Chen, Yixin; Wilkins, Dawn E

2012-09-01

There are a vast number of biology related research problems involving a combination of multiple sources of data to achieve a better understanding of the underlying problems. It is important to select and interpret the most important information from these sources. Thus it will be beneficial to have a good algorithm to simultaneously extract rules and select features for better interpretation of the predictive model. We propose an efficient algorithm, Combined Rule Extraction and Feature Elimination (CRF), based on 1-norm regularized random forests. CRF simultaneously extracts a small number of rules generated by random forests and selects important features. We applied CRF to several drug activity prediction and microarray data sets. CRF is capable of producing performance comparable with state-of-the-art prediction algorithms using a small number of decision rules. Some of the decision rules are biologically significant.

Personalised news filtering and recommendation system using Chi-square statistics-based K-nearest neighbour (χ2SB-KNN) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeniyi, D. A.; Wei, Z.; Yang, Y.

2017-10-01

Recommendation problem has been extensively studied by researchers in the field of data mining, database and information retrieval. This study presents the design and realisation of an automated, personalised news recommendations system based on Chi-square statistics-based K-nearest neighbour (χ2SB-KNN) model. The proposed χ2SB-KNN model has the potential to overcome computational complexity and information overloading problems, reduces runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical value of χ2 distribution. The proposed recommendation engine can alleviate scalability challenges through combined online pattern discovery and pattern matching for real-time recommendations. This work also showcases the development of a novel method of feature selection referred to as Data Discretisation-Based feature selection method. This is used for selecting the best features for the proposed χ2SB-KNN algorithm at the preprocessing stage of the classification procedures. The implementation of the proposed χ2SB-KNN model is achieved through the use of a developed in-house Java program on an experimental website called OUC newsreaders' website. Finally, we compared the performance of our system with two baseline methods which are traditional Euclidean distance K-nearest neighbour and Naive Bayesian techniques. The result shows a significant improvement of our method over the baseline methods studied.

A trade-off between model resolution and variance with selected Rayleigh-wave data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Miller, R.D.; Xu, Y.

2008-01-01

Inversion of multimode surface-wave data is of increasing interest in the near-surface geophysics community. For a given near-surface geophysical problem, it is essential to understand how well the data, calculated according to a layered-earth model, might match the observed data. A data-resolution matrix is a function of the data kernel (determined by a geophysical model and a priori information applied to the problem), not the data. A data-resolution matrix of high-frequency (??? 2 Hz) Rayleigh-wave phase velocities, therefore, offers a quantitative tool for designing field surveys and predicting the match between calculated and observed data. First, we employed a data-resolution matrix to select data that would be well predicted and to explain advantages of incorporating higher modes in inversion. The resulting discussion using the data-resolution matrix provides insight into the process of inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocities with higher mode data to estimate S-wave velocity structure. Discussion also suggested that each near-surface geophysical target can only be resolved using Rayleigh-wave phase velocities within specific frequency ranges, and higher mode data are normally more accurately predicted than fundamental mode data because of restrictions on the data kernel for the inversion system. Second, we obtained an optimal damping vector in a vicinity of an inverted model by the singular value decomposition of a trade-off function of model resolution and variance. In the end of the paper, we used a real-world example to demonstrate that selected data with the data-resolution matrix can provide better inversion results and to explain with the data-resolution matrix why incorporating higher mode data in inversion can provide better results. We also calculated model-resolution matrices of these examples to show the potential of increasing model resolution with selected surface-wave data. With the optimal damping vector, we can improve and assess an inverted model obtained by a damped least-square method.

Optimal assignment of workers to supporting services in a hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawik, Bartosz; Mikulik, Jerzy

2008-01-01

Supporting services play an important role in health care institutions such as hospitals. This paper presents an application of operations research model for optimal allocation of workers among supporting services in a public hospital. The services include logistics, inventory management, financial management, operations management, medical analysis, etc. The optimality criterion of the problem is to minimize operations costs of supporting services subject to some specific constraints. The constraints represent specific conditions for resource allocation in a hospital. The overall problem is formulated as an integer program in the literature known as the assignment problem, where the decision variables represent the assignment of people to various jobs. The results of some computational experiments modeled on a real data from a selected Polish hospital are reported.

A new surrogate modeling technique combining Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions – Application to uncertainty analysis in computational dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kersaudy, Pierric, E-mail: pierric.kersaudy@orange.com; Whist Lab, 38 avenue du Général Leclerc, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux; ESYCOM, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, 5 boulevard Descartes, 77700 Marne-la-Vallée

2015-04-01

In numerical dosimetry, the recent advances in high performance computing led to a strong reduction of the required computational time to assess the specific absorption rate (SAR) characterizing the human exposure to electromagnetic waves. However, this procedure remains time-consuming and a single simulation can request several hours. As a consequence, the influence of uncertain input parameters on the SAR cannot be analyzed using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The solution presented here to perform such an analysis is surrogate modeling. This paper proposes a novel approach to build such a surrogate model from a design of experiments. Considering a sparse representationmore » of the polynomial chaos expansions using least-angle regression as a selection algorithm to retain the most influential polynomials, this paper proposes to use the selected polynomials as regression functions for the universal Kriging model. The leave-one-out cross validation is used to select the optimal number of polynomials in the deterministic part of the Kriging model. The proposed approach, called LARS-Kriging-PC modeling, is applied to three benchmark examples and then to a full-scale metamodeling problem involving the exposure of a numerical fetus model to a femtocell device. The performances of the LARS-Kriging-PC are compared to an ordinary Kriging model and to a classical sparse polynomial chaos expansion. The LARS-Kriging-PC appears to have better performances than the two other approaches. A significant accuracy improvement is observed compared to the ordinary Kriging or to the sparse polynomial chaos depending on the studied case. This approach seems to be an optimal solution between the two other classical approaches. A global sensitivity analysis is finally performed on the LARS-Kriging-PC model of the fetus exposure problem.« less

Using Deep Learning for Targeted Data Selection, Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. J.; Bonfanti, C. E.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.; Govett, M.; Stewart, J.

2017-12-01

At present, a fraction of all satellite observations are ultimately used for model assimilation. The satellite data assimilation process is computationally expensive and data are often reduced in resolution to allow timely incorporation into the forecast. This problem is only exacerbated by the recent launch of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 satellite and future satellites providing several order of magnitude increase in data volume. At the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) we are researching the use of machine learning the improve the initial selection of satellite data to be used in the model assimilation process. In particular, we are investigating the use of deep learning. Deep learning is being applied to many image processing and computer vision problems with great success. Through our research, we are using convolutional neural network to find and mark regions of interest (ROI) to lead to intelligent extraction of observations from satellite observation systems. These targeted observations will be used to improve the quality of data selected for model assimilation and ultimately improve the impact of satellite data on weather forecasts. Our preliminary efforts to identify the ROI's are focused in two areas: applying and comparing state-of-art convolutional neural network models using the analysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model, and using these results as a starting point to optimize convolution neural network model for pattern recognition on the higher resolution water vapor data from GOES-WEST and other satellite. This presentation will provide an introduction to our convolutional neural network model to identify and process these ROI's, along with the challenges of data preparation, training the model, and parameter optimization.

Optimal Partitioning of a Data Set Based on the "p"-Median Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Kohn, Hans-Friedrich

2008-01-01

Although the "K"-means algorithm for minimizing the within-cluster sums of squared deviations from cluster centroids is perhaps the most common method for applied cluster analyses, a variety of other criteria are available. The "p"-median model is an especially well-studied clustering problem that requires the selection of "p" objects to serve as…

Visual Literacy and the Integration of Parametric Modeling in the Problem-Based Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Assenmacher, Matthew Benedict

2013-01-01

This quasi-experimental study investigated the application of visual literacy skills in the form of parametric modeling software in relation to traditional forms of sketching. The study included two groups of high school technical design students. The control and experimental groups involved in the study consisted of two randomly selected groups…

Break-up of Gondwana and opening of the South Atlantic: Review of existing plate tectonic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ghidella, M.E.; Lawver, L.A.; Gahagan, L.M.

2007-01-01

each model. We also plot reconstructions at four selected epochs for all models using the same projection and scale to facilitate comparison. The diverse simplifying assumptions that need to be made in every case regarding plate fragmentation to account for the numerous syn-rift basins and periods of stretching are strong indicators that rigid plate tectonics is too simple a model for the present problem.

Considering Decision Variable Diversity in Multi-Objective Optimization: Application in Hydrologic Model Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahraei, S.; Asadzadeh, M.

2017-12-01

Any modern multi-objective global optimization algorithm should be able to archive a well-distributed set of solutions. While the solution diversity in the objective space has been explored extensively in the literature, little attention has been given to the solution diversity in the decision space. Selection metrics such as the hypervolume contribution and crowding distance calculated in the objective space would guide the search toward solutions that are well-distributed across the objective space. In this study, the diversity of solutions in the decision-space is used as the main selection criteria beside the dominance check in multi-objective optimization. To this end, currently archived solutions are clustered in the decision space and the ones in less crowded clusters are given more chance to be selected for generating new solution. The proposed approach is first tested on benchmark mathematical test problems. Second, it is applied to a hydrologic model calibration problem with more than three objective functions. Results show that the chance of finding more sparse set of high-quality solutions increases, and therefore the analyst would receive a well-diverse set of options with maximum amount of information. Pareto Archived-Dynamically Dimensioned Search, which is an efficient and parsimonious multi-objective optimization algorithm for model calibration, is utilized in this study.

Selection of optimal complexity for ENSO-EMR model by minimum description length principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loskutov, E. M.; Mukhin, D.; Mukhina, A.; Gavrilov, A.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Feigin, A. M.

2012-12-01

One of the main problems arising in modeling of data taken from natural system is finding a phase space suitable for construction of the evolution operator model. Since we usually deal with strongly high-dimensional behavior, we are forced to construct a model working in some projection of system phase space corresponding to time scales of interest. Selection of optimal projection is non-trivial problem since there are many ways to reconstruct phase variables from given time series, especially in the case of a spatio-temporal data field. Actually, finding optimal projection is significant part of model selection, because, on the one hand, the transformation of data to some phase variables vector can be considered as a required component of the model. On the other hand, such an optimization of a phase space makes sense only in relation to the parametrization of the model we use, i.e. representation of evolution operator, so we should find an optimal structure of the model together with phase variables vector. In this paper we propose to use principle of minimal description length (Molkov et al., 2009) for selection models of optimal complexity. The proposed method is applied to optimization of Empirical Model Reduction (EMR) of ENSO phenomenon (Kravtsov et al. 2005, Kondrashov et. al., 2005). This model operates within a subset of leading EOFs constructed from spatio-temporal field of SST in Equatorial Pacific, and has a form of multi-level stochastic differential equations (SDE) with polynomial parameterization of the right-hand side. Optimal values for both the number of EOF, the order of polynomial and number of levels are estimated from the Equatorial Pacific SST dataset. References: Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, G. Fidelin and A. Feigin, Using the minimum description length principle for global reconstruction of dynamic systems from noisy time series, Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 80, P 046207, 2009 Kravtsov S, Kondrashov D, Ghil M, 2005: Multilevel regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability. J. Climate, 18 (21): 4404-4424. D. Kondrashov, S. Kravtsov, A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil, 2005. A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models. J. Climate, 18, 4425-4444.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

Software selection based on analysis and forecasting methods, practised in 1C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazhdaev, A. N.; Chernysheva, T. Y.; Lisacheva, E. I.

2015-09-01

The research focuses on the problem of a “1C: Enterprise 8” platform inboard mechanisms for data analysis and forecasting. It is important to evaluate and select proper software to develop effective strategies for customer relationship management in terms of sales, as well as implementation and further maintenance of software. Research data allows creating new forecast models to schedule further software distribution.

Testing the robustness of optimal access vessel fleet selection for operation and maintenance of offshore wind farms

DOE PAGES

Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Stålhane, Magnus; Dinwoodie, Iain; ...

2017-09-23

Optimising the operation and maintenance (O&M) and logistics strategy of offshore wind farms implies the decision problem of selecting the vessel fleet for O&M. Different strategic decision support tools can be applied to this problem, but much uncertainty remains regarding both input data and modelling assumptions. Our paper aims to investigate and ultimately reduce this uncertainty by comparing four simulation tools, one mathematical optimisation tool and one analytic spreadsheet-based tool applied to select the O&M access vessel fleet that minimizes the total O&M cost of a reference wind farm. The comparison shows that the tools generally agree on the optimalmore » vessel fleet, but only partially agree on the relative ranking of the different vessel fleets in terms of total O&M cost. The robustness of the vessel fleet selection to various input data assumptions was tested, and the ranking was found to be particularly sensitive to the vessels' limiting significant wave height for turbine access. Also the parameter with the greatest discrepancy between the tools, implies that accurate quantification and modelling of this parameter is crucial. The ranking is moderately sensitive to turbine failure rates and vessel day rates but less sensitive to electricity price and vessel transit speed.« less

Testing the robustness of optimal access vessel fleet selection for operation and maintenance of offshore wind farms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Stålhane, Magnus; Dinwoodie, Iain

Optimising the operation and maintenance (O&M) and logistics strategy of offshore wind farms implies the decision problem of selecting the vessel fleet for O&M. Different strategic decision support tools can be applied to this problem, but much uncertainty remains regarding both input data and modelling assumptions. Our paper aims to investigate and ultimately reduce this uncertainty by comparing four simulation tools, one mathematical optimisation tool and one analytic spreadsheet-based tool applied to select the O&M access vessel fleet that minimizes the total O&M cost of a reference wind farm. The comparison shows that the tools generally agree on the optimalmore » vessel fleet, but only partially agree on the relative ranking of the different vessel fleets in terms of total O&M cost. The robustness of the vessel fleet selection to various input data assumptions was tested, and the ranking was found to be particularly sensitive to the vessels' limiting significant wave height for turbine access. Also the parameter with the greatest discrepancy between the tools, implies that accurate quantification and modelling of this parameter is crucial. The ranking is moderately sensitive to turbine failure rates and vessel day rates but less sensitive to electricity price and vessel transit speed.« less

Flood prevention dams for arid regions at a micro-scale sub-catchment, case study: Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Abushandi, Eyad

2016-12-01

Unexpected flash flooding is one of the periodic hydrological problems affecting the city of Tabuk in Saudi Arabia. The region has high potential for floods as it suffers high rainfall intensity in a short time and also has high urbanization rates and topographic complexity. Constructing flood prevention dams is one option to solve this problem. A cost-effective design requires a detailed feasibility study and analysis for the selection of suitable sites. The aim of this study was to develop a method for selecting a suitable site for flood protection dams in the Abu Saba'a district, the most affected part of the city of Tabuk during the flash flood in January 2013. Spatial analysis was applied using Landsat Thematic Mapper images and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to select a site in the Abu Saba'a area. A simple model using ArcGIS was built including all suggested parameters. The results showed the best site for a dam was 2 km distance backfrom the area, where all parameter values matched. The results showed that the dynamic properties of land cover can affect site selection. It is therefore suggested that more field and hydrological data should be gathered for greater accuracy.

Sparse generalized linear model with L0 approximation for feature selection and prediction with big omics data.

PubMed

Liu, Zhenqiu; Sun, Fengzhu; McGovern, Dermot P

2017-01-01

Feature selection and prediction are the most important tasks for big data mining. The common strategies for feature selection in big data mining are L 1 , SCAD and MC+. However, none of the existing algorithms optimizes L 0 , which penalizes the number of nonzero features directly. In this paper, we develop a novel sparse generalized linear model (GLM) with L 0 approximation for feature selection and prediction with big omics data. The proposed approach approximate the L 0 optimization directly. Even though the original L 0 problem is non-convex, the problem is approximated by sequential convex optimizations with the proposed algorithm. The proposed method is easy to implement with only several lines of code. Novel adaptive ridge algorithms ( L 0 ADRIDGE) for L 0 penalized GLM with ultra high dimensional big data are developed. The proposed approach outperforms the other cutting edge regularization methods including SCAD and MC+ in simulations. When it is applied to integrated analysis of mRNA, microRNA, and methylation data from TCGA ovarian cancer, multilevel gene signatures associated with suboptimal debulking are identified simultaneously. The biological significance and potential clinical importance of those genes are further explored. The developed Software L 0 ADRIDGE in MATLAB is available at https://github.com/liuzqx/L0adridge.

Soft Shoulders Ahead: Spurious Signatures of Soft and Partial Selective Sweeps Result from Linked Hard Sweeps

PubMed Central

Schrider, Daniel R.; Mendes, Fábio K.; Hahn, Matthew W.; Kern, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

Characterizing the nature of the adaptive process at the genetic level is a central goal for population genetics. In particular, we know little about the sources of adaptive substitution or about the number of adaptive variants currently segregating in nature. Historically, population geneticists have focused attention on the hard-sweep model of adaptation in which a de novo beneficial mutation arises and rapidly fixes in a population. Recently more attention has been given to soft-sweep models, in which alleles that were previously neutral, or nearly so, drift until such a time as the environment shifts and their selection coefficient changes to become beneficial. It remains an active and difficult problem, however, to tease apart the telltale signatures of hard vs. soft sweeps in genomic polymorphism data. Through extensive simulations of hard- and soft-sweep models, here we show that indeed the two might not be separable through the use of simple summary statistics. In particular, it seems that recombination in regions linked to, but distant from, sites of hard sweeps can create patterns of polymorphism that closely mirror what is expected to be found near soft sweeps. We find that a very similar situation arises when using haplotype-based statistics that are aimed at detecting partial or ongoing selective sweeps, such that it is difficult to distinguish the shoulder of a hard sweep from the center of a partial sweep. While knowing the location of the selected site mitigates this problem slightly, we show that stochasticity in signatures of natural selection will frequently cause the signal to reach its zenith far from this site and that this effect is more severe for soft sweeps; thus inferences of the target as well as the mode of positive selection may be inaccurate. In addition, both the time since a sweep ends and biologically realistic levels of allelic gene conversion lead to errors in the classification and identification of selective sweeps. This general problem of “soft shoulders” underscores the difficulty in differentiating soft and partial sweeps from hard-sweep scenarios in molecular population genomics data. The soft-shoulder effect also implies that the more common hard sweeps have been in recent evolutionary history, the more prevalent spurious signatures of soft or partial sweeps may appear in some genome-wide scans. PMID:25716978

Soft shoulders ahead: spurious signatures of soft and partial selective sweeps result from linked hard sweeps.

PubMed

Schrider, Daniel R; Mendes, Fábio K; Hahn, Matthew W; Kern, Andrew D

2015-05-01

Characterizing the nature of the adaptive process at the genetic level is a central goal for population genetics. In particular, we know little about the sources of adaptive substitution or about the number of adaptive variants currently segregating in nature. Historically, population geneticists have focused attention on the hard-sweep model of adaptation in which a de novo beneficial mutation arises and rapidly fixes in a population. Recently more attention has been given to soft-sweep models, in which alleles that were previously neutral, or nearly so, drift until such a time as the environment shifts and their selection coefficient changes to become beneficial. It remains an active and difficult problem, however, to tease apart the telltale signatures of hard vs. soft sweeps in genomic polymorphism data. Through extensive simulations of hard- and soft-sweep models, here we show that indeed the two might not be separable through the use of simple summary statistics. In particular, it seems that recombination in regions linked to, but distant from, sites of hard sweeps can create patterns of polymorphism that closely mirror what is expected to be found near soft sweeps. We find that a very similar situation arises when using haplotype-based statistics that are aimed at detecting partial or ongoing selective sweeps, such that it is difficult to distinguish the shoulder of a hard sweep from the center of a partial sweep. While knowing the location of the selected site mitigates this problem slightly, we show that stochasticity in signatures of natural selection will frequently cause the signal to reach its zenith far from this site and that this effect is more severe for soft sweeps; thus inferences of the target as well as the mode of positive selection may be inaccurate. In addition, both the time since a sweep ends and biologically realistic levels of allelic gene conversion lead to errors in the classification and identification of selective sweeps. This general problem of "soft shoulders" underscores the difficulty in differentiating soft and partial sweeps from hard-sweep scenarios in molecular population genomics data. The soft-shoulder effect also implies that the more common hard sweeps have been in recent evolutionary history, the more prevalent spurious signatures of soft or partial sweeps may appear in some genome-wide scans. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.

A comparative study of turbulence models for overset grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Renze, Kevin J.; Buning, Pieter G.; Rajagopalan, R. G.

1992-01-01

The implementation of two different types of turbulence models for a flow solver using the Chimera overset grid method is examined. Various turbulence model characteristics, such as length scale determination and transition modeling, are found to have a significant impact on the computed pressure distribution for a multielement airfoil case. No inherent problem is found with using either algebraic or one-equation turbulence models with an overset grid scheme, but simulation of turbulence for multiple-body or complex geometry flows is very difficult regardless of the gridding method. For complex geometry flowfields, modification of the Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model is necessary to select the appropriate length scale in wall-bounded regions. The overset grid approach presents no obstacle to use of a one- or two-equation turbulence model. Both Baldwin-Lomax and Baldwin-Barth models have problems providing accurate eddy viscosity levels for complex multiple-body flowfields such as those involving the Space Shuttle.

Entropic criterion for model selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Chih-Yuan

2006-10-01

Model or variable selection is usually achieved through ranking models according to the increasing order of preference. One of methods is applying Kullback-Leibler distance or relative entropy as a selection criterion. Yet that will raise two questions, why use this criterion and are there any other criteria. Besides, conventional approaches require a reference prior, which is usually difficult to get. Following the logic of inductive inference proposed by Caticha [Relative entropy and inductive inference, in: G. Erickson, Y. Zhai (Eds.), Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 707, 2004 (available from arXiv.org/abs/physics/0311093)], we show relative entropy to be a unique criterion, which requires no prior information and can be applied to different fields. We examine this criterion by considering a physical problem, simple fluids, and results are promising.

Hierarchic models for laminated plates. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Actis, Ricardo Luis

1991-01-01

Structural plates and shells are three-dimensional bodies, one dimension of which happens to be much smaller than the other two. Thus, the quality of a plate or shell model must be judged on the basis of how well its exact solution approximates the corresponding three-dimensional problem. Of course, the exact solution depends not only on the choice of the model but also on the topology, material properties, loading and constraints. The desired degree of approximation depends on the analyst's goals in performing the analysis. For these reasons models have to be chosen adaptively. Hierarchic sequences of models make adaptive selection of the model which is best suited for the purposes of a particular analysis possible. The principles governing the formulation of hierarchic models for laminated plates are presented. The essential features of the hierarchic models described models are: (1) the exact solutions corresponding to the hierarchic sequence of models converge to the exact solution of the corresponding problem of elasticity for a fixed laminate thickness; and (2) the exact solution of each model converges to the same limit as the exact solution of the corresponding problem of elasticity with respect to the laminate thickness approaching zero. The formulation is based on one parameter (beta) which characterizes the hierarchic sequence of models, and a set of constants whose influence was assessed by a numerical sensitivity study. The recommended selection of these constants results in the number of fields increasing by three for each increment in the power of beta. Numerical examples analyzed with the proposed sequence of models are included and good correlation with the reference solutions was found. Results were obtained for laminated strips (plates in cylindrical bending) and for square and rectangular plates with uniform loading and with homogeneous boundary conditions. Cross-ply and angle-ply laminates were evaluated and the results compared with those of MSC/PROBE. Hierarchic models make the computation of any engineering data possible to an arbitrary level of precision within the framework of the theory of elasticity.

Phosphodiesterase Inhibition Increases CREB Phosphorylation and Restores Orientation Selectivity in a Model of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

Krahe, Thomas E.; Wang, Weili; Medina, Alexandre E.

2009-01-01

Background Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) are the leading cause of mental retardation in the western world and children with FASD present altered somatosensory, auditory and visual processing. There is growing evidence that some of these sensory processing problems may be related to altered cortical maps caused by impaired developmental neuronal plasticity. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that the primary visual cortex of ferrets exposed to alcohol during the third trimester equivalent of human gestation have decreased CREB phosphorylation and poor orientation selectivity revealed by western blotting, optical imaging of intrinsic signals and single-unit extracellular recording techniques. Treating animals several days after the period of alcohol exposure with a phosphodiesterase type 1 inhibitor (Vinpocetine) increased CREB phosphorylation and restored orientation selectivity columns and neuronal orientation tuning. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that CREB function is important for the maturation of orientation selectivity and that plasticity enhancement by vinpocetine may play a role in the treatment of sensory problems in FASD. PMID:19680548

Influence plots for LASSO

DOE PAGES

Jang, Dae -Heung; Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela

2016-11-22

With many predictors in regression, fitting the full model can induce multicollinearity problems. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operation (LASSO) is useful when the effects of many explanatory variables are sparse in a high-dimensional dataset. Influential points can have a disproportionate impact on the estimated values of model parameters. Here, this paper describes a new influence plot that can be used to increase understanding of the contributions of individual observations and the robustness of results. This can serve as a complement to other regression diagnostics techniques in the LASSO regression setting. Using this influence plot, we can find influential pointsmore » and their impact on shrinkage of model parameters and model selection. Lastly, we provide two examples to illustrate the methods.« less

Influence plots for LASSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Dae -Heung; Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela

With many predictors in regression, fitting the full model can induce multicollinearity problems. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operation (LASSO) is useful when the effects of many explanatory variables are sparse in a high-dimensional dataset. Influential points can have a disproportionate impact on the estimated values of model parameters. Here, this paper describes a new influence plot that can be used to increase understanding of the contributions of individual observations and the robustness of results. This can serve as a complement to other regression diagnostics techniques in the LASSO regression setting. Using this influence plot, we can find influential pointsmore » and their impact on shrinkage of model parameters and model selection. Lastly, we provide two examples to illustrate the methods.« less

Spherical harmonic representation of the main geomagnetic field for world charting and investigations of some fundamental problems of physics and geophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barraclough, D. R.; Hide, R.; Leaton, B. R.; Lowes, F. J.; Malin, S. R. C.; Wilson, R. L. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The data processing of MAGSAT investigator B test tapes and data tapes, and tapes of selected data on 15 magnetically quiet days is reported. The 1980 World Chart spherical model was compared with the MAGSAT (3/80) and MAGSAT vector data were used in the models. An article on modelling the geomagnetic field using satellite data is included.

Skill Assessment for Coupled Biological/Physical Models of Marine Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

cluster analysis e.g., Clark and Corley, 2006) and shown that the dimensions of the problem can be reduced and multivariate and univariate goodness...information; a follow-up analysis (Arhonditsis et al., 2006) reported no relationship between the level of skill assessment presented or the accuracy of the...uncertainty analysis (Beck, 1987), model selection (Kass and Raftery, 1995), model averaging (Hoeting et al., 1999), and scores for probabilistic

Joint Feature Selection and Classification for Multilabel Learning.

PubMed

Huang, Jun; Li, Guorong; Huang, Qingming; Wu, Xindong

2018-03-01

Multilabel learning deals with examples having multiple class labels simultaneously. It has been applied to a variety of applications, such as text categorization and image annotation. A large number of algorithms have been proposed for multilabel learning, most of which concentrate on multilabel classification problems and only a few of them are feature selection algorithms. Current multilabel classification models are mainly built on a single data representation composed of all the features which are shared by all the class labels. Since each class label might be decided by some specific features of its own, and the problems of classification and feature selection are often addressed independently, in this paper, we propose a novel method which can perform joint feature selection and classification for multilabel learning, named JFSC. Different from many existing methods, JFSC learns both shared features and label-specific features by considering pairwise label correlations, and builds the multilabel classifier on the learned low-dimensional data representations simultaneously. A comparative study with state-of-the-art approaches manifests a competitive performance of our proposed method both in classification and feature selection for multilabel learning.

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPOSITION DATABASE FOR SELECTED MULTICOMPONENT OILS

EPA Science Inventory

During any oil spill incident, the properties of the spilled oil, including its chemical composition, physical properties, and changes due to weathering, are immediately important. U.S. EPA is currently developing new models for application to environmental problems associated...

Information processing. [in human performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, Christopher D.; Flach, John M.

1988-01-01

Theoretical models of sensory-information processing by the human brain are reviewed from a human-factors perspective, with a focus on their implications for aircraft and avionics design. The topics addressed include perception (signal detection and selection), linguistic factors in perception (context provision, logical reversals, absence of cues, and order reversals), mental models, and working and long-term memory. Particular attention is given to decision-making problems such as situation assessment, decision formulation, decision quality, selection of action, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, stimulus-response compatibility, stimulus sequencing, dual-task performance, task difficulty and structure, and factors affecting multiple task performance (processing modalities, codes, and stages).

The impact of pesticides on oxidative stress level in human organism and their activity as an endocrine disruptor.

PubMed

Jabłońska-Trypuć, Agata; Wołejko, Elżbieta; Wydro, Urszula; Butarewicz, Andrzej

2017-07-03

Pesticides cause serious environmental and health problems both to humans and animals. The aim of this review is to discuss selected herbicides and fungicides regarding their mode of action and their influence on basic oxidative stress parameters and endocrine disruption properties tested in selected cell cultures in vitro. Because of numerous difficulties which animal studies are subject to, cell cultures are an excellent experimental model reflecting human exposure to different pesticides through all relevant routes. This experimental model can be used to monitor aggregate and cumulative pesticide exposures.

Neural networks for vertical microcode compaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Pong P.

1992-09-01

Neural networks provide an alternative way to solve complex optimization problems. Instead of performing a program of instructions sequentially as in a traditional computer, neural network model explores many competing hypotheses simultaneously using its massively parallel net. The paper shows how to use the neural network approach to perform vertical micro-code compaction for a micro-programmed control unit. The compaction procedure includes two basic steps. The first step determines the compatibility classes and the second step selects a minimal subset to cover the control signals. Since the selection process is an NP- complete problem, to find an optimal solution is impractical. In this study, we employ a customized neural network to obtain the minimal subset. We first formalize this problem, and then define an `energy function' and map it to a two-layer fully connected neural network. The modified network has two types of neurons and can always obtain a valid solution.

Achieving full connectivity of sites in the multiperiod reserve network design problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jafari, Nahid; Nuse, Bryan L.; Moore, Clinton; Dilkina, Bistra; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The conservation reserve design problem is a challenge to solve because of the spatial and temporal nature of the problem, uncertainties in the decision process, and the possibility of alternative conservation actions for any given land parcel. Conservation agencies tasked with reserve design may benefit from a dynamic decision system that provides tactical guidance for short-term decision opportunities while maintaining focus on a long-term objective of assembling the best set of protected areas possible. To plan cost-effective conservation over time under time-varying action costs and budget, we propose a multi-period mixed integer programming model for the budget-constrained selection of fully connected sites. The objective is to maximize a summed conservation value over all network parcels at the end of the planning horizon. The originality of this work is in achieving full spatial connectivity of the selected sites during the schedule of conservation actions.

Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu; Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk; Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn

2013-06-15

In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solutionmore » to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.« less

A New TS Algorithm for Solving Low-Carbon Logistics Vehicle Routing Problem with Split Deliveries by Backpack-From a Green Operation Perspective.

PubMed

Xia, Yangkun; Fu, Zhuo; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Wang, Jiangtao

2018-05-10

In order to promote the development of low-carbon logistics and economize logistics distribution costs, the vehicle routing problem with split deliveries by backpack is studied. With the help of the model of classical capacitated vehicle routing problem, in this study, a form of discrete split deliveries was designed in which the customer demand can be split only by backpack. A double-objective mathematical model and the corresponding adaptive tabu search (TS) algorithm were constructed for solving this problem. By embedding the adaptive penalty mechanism, and adopting the random neighborhood selection strategy and reinitialization principle, the global optimization ability of the new algorithm was enhanced. Comparisons with the results in the literature show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method can save the costs of low-carbon logistics and reduce carbon emissions, which is conducive to the sustainable development of low-carbon logistics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doebling, Scott William

This paper documents the escape of high explosive (HE) products problem. The problem, first presented by Fickett & Rivard, tests the implementation and numerical behavior of a high explosive detonation and energy release model and its interaction with an associated compressible hydrodynamics simulation code. The problem simulates the detonation of a finite-length, one-dimensional piece of HE that is driven by a piston from one end and adjacent to a void at the other end. The HE equation of state is modeled as a polytropic ideal gas. The HE detonation is assumed to be instantaneous with an infinitesimal reaction zone. Viamore » judicious selection of the material specific heat ratio, the problem has an exact solution with linear characteristics, enabling a straightforward calculation of the physical variables as a function of time and space. Lastly, implementation of the exact solution in the Python code ExactPack is discussed, as are verification cases for the exact solution code.« less

Influence of Problem Based Learning on Critical Thinking Skills and Competence Class VIII SMPN 1 Gunuang Omeh, 2016/2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswan, D. M.; Lufri, L.; Sumarmin, R.

2018-04-01

This research intends to determine the effect of Problem Based Learning models on students' critical thinking skills and competences. This study was a quasi-experimental research. The population of the study was the students of class VIII SMPN 1 Subdistrict Gunuang Omeh. Random sample selection is done by randomizing the class. Sample class that was chosen VIII3 as an experimental class given that treatment study based on problems and class VIII1 as control class that treatment usually given study. Instrument that used to consist of critical thinking test, cognitive tests, observation sheet of affective and psychomotor. Independent t-test and Mann Whitney U test was used for the analysis. Results showed that there was significant difference (sig <0.05) between control and experimental group. The conclusion of this study was Problem Based Learning models affected the students’ critical thinking skills and competences.

Towards a Framework for Modeling Space Systems Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shames, Peter; Skipper, Joseph

2006-01-01

Topics covered include: 1) Statement of the problem: a) Space system architecture is complex; b) Existing terrestrial approaches must be adapted for space; c) Need a common architecture methodology and information model; d) Need appropriate set of viewpoints. 2) Requirements on a space systems model. 3) Model Based Engineering and Design (MBED) project: a) Evaluated different methods; b) Adapted and utilized RASDS & RM-ODP; c) Identified useful set of viewpoints; d) Did actual model exchanges among selected subset of tools. 4) Lessons learned & future vision.

Genetic Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Feature Selection for Very-High-Resolution Remotely Sensed Imagery Object Change Detection.

PubMed

Chen, Qiang; Chen, Yunhao; Jiang, Weiguo

2016-07-30

In the field of multiple features Object-Based Change Detection (OBCD) for very-high-resolution remotely sensed images, image objects have abundant features and feature selection affects the precision and efficiency of OBCD. Through object-based image analysis, this paper proposes a Genetic Particle Swarm Optimization (GPSO)-based feature selection algorithm to solve the optimization problem of feature selection in multiple features OBCD. We select the Ratio of Mean to Variance (RMV) as the fitness function of GPSO, and apply the proposed algorithm to the object-based hybrid multivariate alternative detection model. Two experiment cases on Worldview-2/3 images confirm that GPSO can significantly improve the speed of convergence, and effectively avoid the problem of premature convergence, relative to other feature selection algorithms. According to the accuracy evaluation of OBCD, GPSO is superior at overall accuracy (84.17% and 83.59%) and Kappa coefficient (0.6771 and 0.6314) than other algorithms. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis results show that the proposed algorithm is not easily influenced by the initial parameters, but the number of features to be selected and the size of the particle swarm would affect the algorithm. The comparison experiment results reveal that RMV is more suitable than other functions as the fitness function of GPSO-based feature selection algorithm.

Complex Dynamics of Droplet Traffic in a Bifurcating Microfluidic Channel: Periodicity, Multistability, and Selection Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sessoms, D. A.; Amon, A.; Courbin, L.; Panizza, P.

2010-10-01

The binary path selection of droplets reaching a T junction is regulated by time-delayed feedback and nonlinear couplings. Such mechanisms result in complex dynamics of droplet partitioning: numerous discrete bifurcations between periodic regimes are observed. We introduce a model based on an approximation that makes this problem tractable. This allows us to derive analytical formulae that predict the occurrence of the bifurcations between consecutive regimes, establish selection rules for the period of a regime, and describe the evolutions of the period and complexity of droplet pattern in a cycle with the key parameters of the system. We discuss the validity and limitations of our model which describes semiquantitatively both numerical simulations and microfluidic experiments.

Solvability conditions for dendritic growth in the boundary-layer model with capillary anisotropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langer, J. S.; Hong, D. C.

1986-01-01

This paper is concerned primarily with the development of an analytic approach to the theory of steady-state velocity selection in the boundary-layer model of dendritic solidification. The two-dimensional version of this model with a fourfold crystalline anisotropy alpha in the surface tension is considered. By extending a WKB method introduced in an earlier paper, the alpha dependence of the selected growth rate is determined in the limit of small alpha; and this rate is studied for large alphas in the limit in which the dimensionless undercooling approaches unity. Portions of the paper are devoted to a reinterpretation of the mathematical structure of the solvability condition in problems of this kind.

Rasch Measurement of Collaborative Problem Solving in an Online Environment.

PubMed

Harding, Susan-Marie E; Griffin, Patrick E

2016-01-01

This paper describes an approach to the assessment of human to human collaborative problem solving using a set of online interactive tasks completed by student dyads. Within the dyad, roles were nominated as either A or B and students selected their own roles. The question as to whether role selection affected individual student performance measures is addressed. Process stream data was captured from 3402 students in six countries who explored the problem space by clicking, dragging the mouse, moving the cursor and collaborating with their partner through a chat box window. Process stream data were explored to identify behavioural indicators that represented elements of a conceptual framework. These indicative behaviours were coded into a series of dichotomous items. These items represented actions and chats performed by students. The frequency of occurrence was used as a proxy measure of item difficulty. Then given a measure of item difficulty, student ability could be estimated using the difficulty estimates of the range of items demonstrated by the student. The Rasch simple logistic model was used to review the indicators to identify those that were consistent with the assumptions of the model and were invariant across national samples, language, curriculum and age of the student. The data were analysed using a one and two dimension, one parameter model. Rasch separation reliability, fit to the model, distribution of students and items on the underpinning construct, estimates for each country and the effect of role differences are reported. This study provides evidence that collaborative problem solving can be assessed in an online environment involving human to human interaction using behavioural indicators shown to have a consistent relationship between the estimate of student ability, and the probability of demonstrating the behaviour.

Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

PubMed

Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

2015-09-01

This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The escape of high explosive products: An exact-solution problem for verification of hydrodynamics codes

DOE PAGES

Doebling, Scott William

2016-10-22

This paper documents the escape of high explosive (HE) products problem. The problem, first presented by Fickett & Rivard, tests the implementation and numerical behavior of a high explosive detonation and energy release model and its interaction with an associated compressible hydrodynamics simulation code. The problem simulates the detonation of a finite-length, one-dimensional piece of HE that is driven by a piston from one end and adjacent to a void at the other end. The HE equation of state is modeled as a polytropic ideal gas. The HE detonation is assumed to be instantaneous with an infinitesimal reaction zone. Viamore » judicious selection of the material specific heat ratio, the problem has an exact solution with linear characteristics, enabling a straightforward calculation of the physical variables as a function of time and space. Lastly, implementation of the exact solution in the Python code ExactPack is discussed, as are verification cases for the exact solution code.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unseren, M.A.

This report proposes a method for resolving the kinematic redundancy of a serial link manipulator moving in a three-dimensional workspace. The underspecified problem of solving for the joint velocities based on the classical kinematic velocity model is transformed into a well-specified problem. This is accomplished by augmenting the original model with additional equations which relate a new vector variable quantifying the redundant degrees of freedom (DOF) to the joint velocities. The resulting augmented system yields a well specified solution for the joint velocities. Methods for selecting the redundant DOF quantifying variable and the transformation matrix relating it to the jointmore » velocities are presented so as to obtain a minimum Euclidean norm solution for the joint velocities. The approach is also applied to the problem of resolving the kinematic redundancy at the acceleration level. Upon resolving the kinematic redundancy, a rigid body dynamical model governing the gross motion of the manipulator is derived. A control architecture is suggested which according to the model, decouples the Cartesian space DOF and the redundant DOF.« less

A hybrid algorithm for selecting head-related transfer function based on similarity of anthropometric structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xiang-Yang; Wang, Shu-Guang; Gao, Li-Ping

2010-09-01

As the basic data for virtual auditory technology, head-related transfer function (HRTF) has many applications in the areas of room acoustic modeling, spatial hearing and multimedia. How to individualize HRTF fast and effectively has become an opening problem at present. Based on the similarity and relativity of anthropometric structures, a hybrid HRTF customization algorithm, which has combined the method of principal component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and database matching (DM), has been presented in this paper. The HRTFs selected by both the best match and the worst match have been applied into obtaining binaurally auralized sounds, which are then used for subjective listening experiments and the results are compared. For the area in the horizontal plane, the localization results have shown that the selection of HRTFs can enhance the localization accuracy and can also abate the problem of front-back confusion.

An opinion formation based binary optimization approach for feature selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Jalili, Mahdi; Yu, Xinghuo

2018-02-01

This paper proposed a novel optimization method based on opinion formation in complex network systems. The proposed optimization technique mimics human-human interaction mechanism based on a mathematical model derived from social sciences. Our method encodes a subset of selected features to the opinion of an artificial agent and simulates the opinion formation process among a population of agents to solve the feature selection problem. The agents interact using an underlying interaction network structure and get into consensus in their opinions, while finding better solutions to the problem. A number of mechanisms are employed to avoid getting trapped in local minima. We compare the performance of the proposed method with a number of classical population-based optimization methods and a state-of-the-art opinion formation based method. Our experiments on a number of high dimensional datasets reveal outperformance of the proposed algorithm over others.

Joint Optimization of Receiver Placement and Illuminator Selection for a Multiband Passive Radar Network.

PubMed

Xie, Rui; Wan, Xianrong; Hong, Sheng; Yi, Jianxin

2017-06-14

The performance of a passive radar network can be greatly improved by an optimal radar network structure. Generally, radar network structure optimization consists of two aspects, namely the placement of receivers in suitable places and selection of appropriate illuminators. The present study investigates issues concerning the joint optimization of receiver placement and illuminator selection for a passive radar network. Firstly, the required radar cross section (RCS) for target detection is chosen as the performance metric, and the joint optimization model boils down to the partition p -center problem (PPCP). The PPCP is then solved by a proposed bisection algorithm. The key of the bisection algorithm lies in solving the partition set covering problem (PSCP), which can be solved by a hybrid algorithm developed by coupling the convex optimization with the greedy dropping algorithm. In the end, the performance of the proposed algorithm is validated via numerical simulations.

Random Evolutionary Dynamics Driven by Fitness and House-of-Cards Mutations: Sampling Formulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huillet, Thierry E.

2017-07-01

We first revisit the multi-allelic mutation-fitness balance problem, especially when mutations obey a house of cards condition, where the discrete-time deterministic evolutionary dynamics of the allelic frequencies derives from a Shahshahani potential. We then consider multi-allelic Wright-Fisher stochastic models whose deviation to neutrality is from the Shahshahani mutation/selection potential. We next focus on the weak selection, weak mutation cases and, making use of a Gamma calculus, we compute the normalizing partition functions of the invariant probability densities appearing in their Wright-Fisher diffusive approximations. Using these results, generalized Ewens sampling formulae (ESF) from the equilibrium distributions are derived. We start treating the ESF in the mixed mutation/selection potential case and then we restrict ourselves to the ESF in the simpler house-of-cards mutations only situation. We also address some issues concerning sampling problems from infinitely-many alleles weak limits.

Distribution-Preserving Stratified Sampling for Learning Problems.

PubMed

Cervellera, Cristiano; Maccio, Danilo

2017-06-09

The need for extracting a small sample from a large amount of real data, possibly streaming, arises routinely in learning problems, e.g., for storage, to cope with computational limitations, obtain good training/test/validation sets, and select minibatches for stochastic gradient neural network training. Unless we have reasons to select the samples in an active way dictated by the specific task and/or model at hand, it is important that the distribution of the selected points is as similar as possible to the original data. This is obvious for unsupervised learning problems, where the goal is to gain insights on the distribution of the data, but it is also relevant for supervised problems, where the theory explains how the training set distribution influences the generalization error. In this paper, we analyze the technique of stratified sampling from the point of view of distances between probabilities. This allows us to introduce an algorithm, based on recursive binary partition of the input space, aimed at obtaining samples that are distributed as much as possible as the original data. A theoretical analysis is proposed, proving the (greedy) optimality of the procedure together with explicit error bounds. An adaptive version of the algorithm is also introduced to cope with streaming data. Simulation tests on various data sets and different learning tasks are also provided.

Simulation of physiological systems in order to evaluate and predict the human condition in a space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verigo, V. V.

1979-01-01

Simulation models were used to study theoretical problems of space biology and medicine. The reaction and adaptation of the main physiological systems to the complex effects of space flight were investigated. Mathematical models were discussed in terms of their significance in the selection of the structure and design of biological life support systems.

Convergence Properties of a Class of Probabilistic Adaptive Schemes Called Sequential Reproductive Plans. Psychology and Education Series, Technical Report No. 210.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Nancy

Presented is a technical report concerning the use of a mathematical model describing certain aspects of the duplication and selection processes in natural genetic adaptation. This reproductive plan/model occurs in artificial genetics (the use of ideas from genetics to develop general problem solving techniques for computers). The reproductive…

Elementary Students Translating Values into Action Using an Enrichment Model for Lutheran Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czaplewski, Daniel P.

This practicum was designed to bridge the gap between strong values held by a Lutheran school and output from learners in the school that reflected these values. Using the "I Can Make a Difference" model, students in grades five through eight worked during weekly enrichment periods for 12 weeks to select and solve real life problems. The…

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Empirical models for fitting of oral concentration time curves with and without an intravenous reference.

PubMed

Weiss, Michael

2017-06-01

Appropriate model selection is important in fitting oral concentration-time data due to the complex character of the absorption process. When IV reference data are available, the problem is the selection of an empirical input function (absorption model). In the present examples a weighted sum of inverse Gaussian density functions (IG) was found most useful. It is shown that alternative models (gamma and Weibull density) are only valid if the input function is log-concave. Furthermore, it is demonstrated for the first time that the sum of IGs model can be also applied to fit oral data directly (without IV data). In the present examples, a weighted sum of two or three IGs was sufficient. From the parameters of this function, the model-independent measures AUC and mean residence time can be calculated. It turned out that a good fit of the data in the terminal phase is essential to avoid parameter biased estimates. The time course of fractional elimination rate and the concept of log-concavity have proved as useful tools in model selection.

Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives.

PubMed

Grainger, Matthew James; Aramyan, Lusine; Piras, Simone; Quested, Thomas Edward; Righi, Simone; Setti, Marco; Vittuari, Matteo; Stewart, Gavin Bruce

2018-01-01

Food waste from households contributes the greatest proportion to total food waste in developed countries. Therefore, food waste reduction requires an understanding of the socio-economic (contextual and behavioural) factors that lead to its generation within the household. Addressing such a complex subject calls for sound methodological approaches that until now have been conditioned by the large number of factors involved in waste generation, by the lack of a recognised definition, and by limited available data. This work contributes to food waste generation literature by using one of the largest available datasets that includes data on the objective amount of avoidable household food waste, along with information on a series of socio-economic factors. In order to address one aspect of the complexity of the problem, machine learning algorithms (random forests and boruta) for variable selection integrated with linear modelling, model selection and averaging are implemented. Model selection addresses model structural uncertainty, which is not routinely considered in assessments of food waste in literature. The main drivers of food waste in the home selected in the most parsimonious models include household size, the presence of fussy eaters, employment status, home ownership status, and the local authority. Results, regardless of which variable set the models are run on, point toward large households as being a key target element for food waste reduction interventions.

Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives

PubMed Central

Aramyan, Lusine; Piras, Simone; Quested, Thomas Edward; Righi, Simone; Setti, Marco; Vittuari, Matteo; Stewart, Gavin Bruce

2018-01-01

Food waste from households contributes the greatest proportion to total food waste in developed countries. Therefore, food waste reduction requires an understanding of the socio-economic (contextual and behavioural) factors that lead to its generation within the household. Addressing such a complex subject calls for sound methodological approaches that until now have been conditioned by the large number of factors involved in waste generation, by the lack of a recognised definition, and by limited available data. This work contributes to food waste generation literature by using one of the largest available datasets that includes data on the objective amount of avoidable household food waste, along with information on a series of socio-economic factors. In order to address one aspect of the complexity of the problem, machine learning algorithms (random forests and boruta) for variable selection integrated with linear modelling, model selection and averaging are implemented. Model selection addresses model structural uncertainty, which is not routinely considered in assessments of food waste in literature. The main drivers of food waste in the home selected in the most parsimonious models include household size, the presence of fussy eaters, employment status, home ownership status, and the local authority. Results, regardless of which variable set the models are run on, point toward large households as being a key target element for food waste reduction interventions. PMID:29389949

Food selectivity, mealtime behavior problems, spousal stress, and family food choices in children with and without autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Curtin, C; Hubbard, K; Anderson, S E; Mick, E; Must, A; Bandini, L G

2015-10-01

Mealtime behavior problems and family stress occur frequently among families of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, it is unknown whether food selectivity is an associated factor. The associations of high food selectivity with mealtime behavior problems, spousal stress, and influence on family members were assessed among 53 children with ASD and 58 typically developing (TD) children ages 3-11 years. Compared to TD children, children with ASD were more likely to have high food selectivity, and their parents reported more mealtime behavior problems, higher spousal stress, and influence on what other family members ate. High food selectivity was associated with mealtime behavior problems in both groups. Interventions to reduce food selectivity may lead to decreases in mealtime behavior problems.

Food Selectivity, Mealtime Behavior Problems, Spousal Stress, and Family Food Choices in Children with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Curtin, C.; Hubbard, K.; Anderson, S.E.; Mick, E.; Must, A.; Bandini, L.G.

2015-01-01

Mealtime behavior problems and family stress occur frequently among families of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, it is unknown whether food selectivity is an associated factor. The associations of high food selectivity with mealtime behavior problems, spousal stress, and influence on family members were assessed among 53 children with ASD and 58 typically developing (TD) children ages 3–11 years. Compared to TD children, children with ASD were more likely to have high food selectivity, and their parents reported more mealtime behavior problems, higher spousal stress, and influence on what other family members ate. High food selectivity was associated with mealtime behavior problems in both groups. Interventions to reduce food selectivity may lead to decreases in mealtime behavior problems. PMID:26070276

Systematic narrative review of decision frameworks to select the appropriate modelling approaches for health economic evaluations.

PubMed

Tsoi, B; O'Reilly, D; Jegathisawaran, J; Tarride, J-E; Blackhouse, G; Goeree, R

2015-06-17

In constructing or appraising a health economic model, an early consideration is whether the modelling approach selected is appropriate for the given decision problem. Frameworks and taxonomies that distinguish between modelling approaches can help make this decision more systematic and this study aims to identify and compare the decision frameworks proposed to date on this topic area. A systematic review was conducted to identify frameworks from peer-reviewed and grey literature sources. The following databases were searched: OVID Medline and EMBASE; Wiley's Cochrane Library and Health Economic Evaluation Database; PubMed; and ProQuest. Eight decision frameworks were identified, each focused on a different set of modelling approaches and employing a different collection of selection criterion. The selection criteria can be categorized as either: (i) structural features (i.e. technical elements that are factual in nature) or (ii) practical considerations (i.e. context-dependent attributes). The most commonly mentioned structural features were population resolution (i.e. aggregate vs. individual) and interactivity (i.e. static vs. dynamic). Furthermore, understanding the needs of the end-users and stakeholders was frequently incorporated as a criterion within these frameworks. There is presently no universally-accepted framework for selecting an economic modelling approach. Rather, each highlights different criteria that may be of importance when determining whether a modelling approach is appropriate. Further discussion is thus necessary as the modelling approach selected will impact the validity of the underlying economic model and have downstream implications on its efficiency, transparency and relevance to decision-makers.

A spiking neural network model of model-free reinforcement learning with high-dimensional sensory input and perceptual ambiguity.

PubMed

Nakano, Takashi; Otsuka, Makoto; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Doya, Kenji

2015-01-01

A theoretical framework of reinforcement learning plays an important role in understanding action selection in animals. Spiking neural networks provide a theoretically grounded means to test computational hypotheses on neurally plausible algorithms of reinforcement learning through numerical simulation. However, most of these models cannot handle observations which are noisy, or occurred in the past, even though these are inevitable and constraining features of learning in real environments. This class of problem is formally known as partially observable reinforcement learning (PORL) problems. It provides a generalization of reinforcement learning to partially observable domains. In addition, observations in the real world tend to be rich and high-dimensional. In this work, we use a spiking neural network model to approximate the free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine and apply it to the solution of PORL problems with high-dimensional observations. Our spiking network model solves maze tasks with perceptually ambiguous high-dimensional observations without knowledge of the true environment. An extended model with working memory also solves history-dependent tasks. The way spiking neural networks handle PORL problems may provide a glimpse into the underlying laws of neural information processing which can only be discovered through such a top-down approach.

A Spiking Neural Network Model of Model-Free Reinforcement Learning with High-Dimensional Sensory Input and Perceptual Ambiguity

PubMed Central

Nakano, Takashi; Otsuka, Makoto; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Doya, Kenji

2015-01-01

A theoretical framework of reinforcement learning plays an important role in understanding action selection in animals. Spiking neural networks provide a theoretically grounded means to test computational hypotheses on neurally plausible algorithms of reinforcement learning through numerical simulation. However, most of these models cannot handle observations which are noisy, or occurred in the past, even though these are inevitable and constraining features of learning in real environments. This class of problem is formally known as partially observable reinforcement learning (PORL) problems. It provides a generalization of reinforcement learning to partially observable domains. In addition, observations in the real world tend to be rich and high-dimensional. In this work, we use a spiking neural network model to approximate the free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine and apply it to the solution of PORL problems with high-dimensional observations. Our spiking network model solves maze tasks with perceptually ambiguous high-dimensional observations without knowledge of the true environment. An extended model with working memory also solves history-dependent tasks. The way spiking neural networks handle PORL problems may provide a glimpse into the underlying laws of neural information processing which can only be discovered through such a top-down approach. PMID:25734662

Adaptive unified continuum FEM modeling of a 3D FSI benchmark problem.

PubMed

Jansson, Johan; Degirmenci, Niyazi Cem; Hoffman, Johan

2017-09-01

In this paper, we address a 3D fluid-structure interaction benchmark problem that represents important characteristics of biomedical modeling. We present a goal-oriented adaptive finite element methodology for incompressible fluid-structure interaction based on a streamline diffusion-type stabilization of the balance equations for mass and momentum for the entire continuum in the domain, which is implemented in the Unicorn/FEniCS software framework. A phase marker function and its corresponding transport equation are introduced to select the constitutive law, where the mesh tracks the discontinuous fluid-structure interface. This results in a unified simulation method for fluids and structures. We present detailed results for the benchmark problem compared with experiments, together with a mesh convergence study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fractional-order TV-L2 model for image denoising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dali; Sun, Shenshen; Zhang, Congrong; Chen, YangQuan; Xue, Dingyu

2013-10-01

This paper proposes a new fractional order total variation (TV) denoising method, which provides a much more elegant and effective way of treating problems of the algorithm implementation, ill-posed inverse, regularization parameter selection and blocky effect. Two fractional order TV-L2 models are constructed for image denoising. The majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm is used to decompose these two complex fractional TV optimization problems into a set of linear optimization problems which can be solved by the conjugate gradient algorithm. The final adaptive numerical procedure is given. Finally, we report experimental results which show that the proposed methodology avoids the blocky effect and achieves state-of-the-art performance. In addition, two medical image processing experiments are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodology.

Large-scale model quality assessment for improving protein tertiary structure prediction.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-06-15

Sampling structural models and ranking them are the two major challenges of protein structure prediction. Traditional protein structure prediction methods generally use one or a few quality assessment (QA) methods to select the best-predicted models, which cannot consistently select relatively better models and rank a large number of models well. Here, we develop a novel large-scale model QA method in conjunction with model clustering to rank and select protein structural models. It unprecedentedly applied 14 model QA methods to generate consensus model rankings, followed by model refinement based on model combination (i.e. averaging). Our experiment demonstrates that the large-scale model QA approach is more consistent and robust in selecting models of better quality than any individual QA method. Our method was blindly tested during the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM group. It was officially ranked third out of all 143 human and server predictors according to the total scores of the first models predicted for 78 CASP11 protein domains and second according to the total scores of the best of the five models predicted for these domains. MULTICOM's outstanding performance in the extremely competitive 2014 CASP11 experiment proves that our large-scale QA approach together with model clustering is a promising solution to one of the two major problems in protein structure modeling. The web server is available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_cluster/human/. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Research on cutting path optimization of sheet metal parts based on ant colony algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z. Y.; Ling, H.; Li, L.; Wu, L. H.; Liu, N. B.

2017-09-01

In view of the disadvantages of the current cutting path optimization methods of sheet metal parts, a new method based on ant colony algorithm was proposed in this paper. The cutting path optimization problem of sheet metal parts was taken as the research object. The essence and optimization goal of the optimization problem were presented. The traditional serial cutting constraint rule was improved. The cutting constraint rule with cross cutting was proposed. The contour lines of parts were discretized and the mathematical model of cutting path optimization was established. Thus the problem was converted into the selection problem of contour lines of parts. Ant colony algorithm was used to solve the problem. The principle and steps of the algorithm were analyzed.

Complex multidisciplinary system composition for aerospace vehicle conceptual design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Lex

Although, there exists a vast amount of work concerning the analysis, design, integration of aerospace vehicle systems, there is no standard for how this data and knowledge should be combined in order to create a synthesis system. Each institution creating a synthesis system has in house vehicle and hardware components they are attempting to model and proprietary methods with which to model them. This leads to the fact that synthesis systems begin as one-off creations meant to answer a specific problem. As the scope of the synthesis system grows to encompass more and more problems, so does its size and complexity; in order for a single synthesis system to answer multiple questions the number of methods and method interface must increase. As a means to curtail the requirement that the increase of an aircraft synthesis systems capability leads to an increase in its size and complexity, this research effort focuses on the idea that each problem in aerospace requires its own analysis framework. By focusing on the creation of a methodology which centers on the matching of an analysis framework towards the problem being solved, the complexity of the analysis framework is decoupled from the complexity of the system that creates it. The derived methodology allows for the composition of complex multi-disciplinary systems (CMDS) through the automatic creation and implementation of system and disciplinary method interfaces. The CMDS Composition process follows a four step methodology meant to take a problem definition and progress towards the creation of an analysis framework meant to answer said problem. The unique implementation of the CMDS Composition process take user selected disciplinary analysis methods and automatically integrates them, together in order to create a syntactically composable analysis framework. As a means of assessing the validity of the CMDS Composition process a prototype system (AVDDBMS) has been developed. AVD DBMS has been used to model the Generic Hypersonic Vehicle (GHV), an open source family of hypersonic vehicles originating from the Air Force Research Laboratory. AVDDBMS has been applied in three different ways in order to assess its validity: Verification using GHV disciplinary data, Validation using selected disciplinary analysis methods, and Application of the CMDS Composition Process to assess the design solution space for the GHV hardware. The research demonstrates the holistic effect that selection of individual disciplinary analysis methods has on the structure and integration of the analysis framework.

Constant-concentration boundary condition: Lessons from the HYDROCOIN variable-density groundwater benchmark problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.; Sanford, W.E.; Campbell, P.J.

1997-01-01

In a solute-transport model, if a constant-concentration boundary condition is applied at a node in an active flow field, a solute flux can occur by both advective and dispersive processes. The potential for advective release is demonstrated by reexamining the Hydrologic Code Intercomparison (HYDROCOIN) project case 5 problem, which represents a salt dome overlain by a shallow groundwater system. The resulting flow field includes significant salinity and fluid density variations. Several independent teams simulated this problem using finite difference or finite element numerical models. We applied a method-of-characteristics model (MOCDENSE). The previous numerical implementations by HYDROCOIN teams of a constant-concentration boundary to represent salt release by lateral dispersion only (as stipulated in the original problem definition) was flawed because this boundary condition allows the release of salt into the flow field by both dispersion and advection. When the constant-concentration boundary is modified to allow salt release by dispersion only, significantly less salt is released into the flow field. The calculated brine distribution for case 5 depends very little on which numerical model is used, as long as the selected model is solving the proper equations. Instead, the accuracy of the solution depends strongly on the proper conceptualization of the problem, including the detailed design of the constant-concentration boundary condition. The importance and sensitivity to the manner of specification of this boundary does not appear to have been recognized previously in the analysis of this problem.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dinh, Nam; Athe, Paridhi; Jones, Christopher

The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite is assessed in terms of capability and credibility against the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Verification and Validation Plan (presented herein) in the context of three selected challenge problems: CRUD-Induced Power Shift (CIPS), Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB), and Pellet-Clad Interaction (PCI). Capability refers to evidence of required functionality for capturing phenomena of interest while capability refers to the evidence that provides confidence in the calculated results. For this assessment, each challenge problem defines a set of phenomenological requirements against which the VERA software is assessed. Thismore » approach, in turn, enables the focused assessment of only those capabilities relevant to the challenge problem. The evaluation of VERA against the challenge problem requirements represents a capability assessment. The mechanism for assessment is the Sandia-developed Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) that, for this assessment, evaluates VERA on 8 major criteria: (1) Representation and Geometric Fidelity, (2) Physics and Material Model Fidelity, (3) Software Quality Assurance and Engineering, (4) Code Verification, (5) Solution Verification, (6) Separate Effects Model Validation, (7) Integral Effects Model Validation, and (8) Uncertainty Quantification. For each attribute, a maturity score from zero to three is assigned in the context of each challenge problem. The evaluation of these eight elements constitutes the credibility assessment for VERA.« less

Multipath modeling for aeronautical communications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Painter, J. H.; Gupta, S. C.; Wilson, L. R.

1973-01-01

One of the fundamental technical problems in aeronautical digital communications is that of multipath propagation between aircraft and ground terminal. This paper examines in detail a model of the received multipath signal that is useful for application of modern detection and estimation theories. The model treats arbitrary modulation and covers the selective and nonselective cases. The necessarily nonstationary statistics of the received signal are determined from the link geometry and the surface roughness parameters via a Kirchhoff solution.

An objective rationale for the choice of regularisation parameter with application to global multiple-frequency S-wave tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaroli, C.; Sambridge, M.; Lévêque, J.-J.; Debayle, E.; Nolet, G.

2013-06-01

In a linear ill-posed inverse problem, the regularisation parameter (damping) controls the balance between minimising both the residual data misfit and the model norm. Poor knowledge of data uncertainties often makes the selection of damping rather arbitrary. To go beyond that subjectivity, an objective rationale for the choice of damping is presented, which is based on the coherency of delay-time estimates in different frequency bands. Our method is tailored to the problem of global Multiple-Frequency Tomography (MFT), using a data set of 287 078 S-wave delay-times measured in five frequency bands (10, 15, 22, 34, 51 s central periods). Whereas for each ray path the delay-time estimates should vary coherently from one period to the other, the noise most likely is not coherent. Thus, the lack of coherency of the information in different frequency bands is exploited, using an analogy with the cross-validation method, to identify models dominated by noise. In addition, a sharp change of behaviour of the model ℓ∞-norm, as the damping becomes lower than a threshold value, is interpreted as the signature of data noise starting to significantly pollute at least one model component. Models with damping larger than this threshold are diagnosed as being constructed with poor data exploitation. Finally, a preferred model is selected from the remaining range of permitted model solutions. This choice is quasi-objective in terms of model interpretation, as the selected model shows a high degree of similarity with almost all other permitted models (correlation superior to 98% up to spherical harmonic degree 80). The obtained tomographic model is displayed in mid lower-mantle (660-1910 km depth), and is shown to be compatible with three other recent global shear-velocity models. A wider application of the presented rationale should permit us to converge towards more objective seismic imaging of the Earth's mantle.

An objective rationale for the choice of regularisation parameter with application to global multiple-frequency S-wave tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaroli, C.; Sambridge, M.; Lévêque, J.-J.; Debayle, E.; Nolet, G.

2013-10-01

In a linear ill-posed inverse problem, the regularisation parameter (damping) controls the balance between minimising both the residual data misfit and the model norm. Poor knowledge of data uncertainties often makes the selection of damping rather arbitrary. To go beyond that subjectivity, an objective rationale for the choice of damping is presented, which is based on the coherency of delay-time estimates in different frequency bands. Our method is tailored to the problem of global multiple-frequency tomography (MFT), using a data set of 287 078 S-wave delay times measured in five frequency bands (10, 15, 22, 34, and 51 s central periods). Whereas for each ray path the delay-time estimates should vary coherently from one period to the other, the noise most likely is not coherent. Thus, the lack of coherency of the information in different frequency bands is exploited, using an analogy with the cross-validation method, to identify models dominated by noise. In addition, a sharp change of behaviour of the model ℓ∞-norm, as the damping becomes lower than a threshold value, is interpreted as the signature of data noise starting to significantly pollute at least one model component. Models with damping larger than this threshold are diagnosed as being constructed with poor data exploitation. Finally, a preferred model is selected from the remaining range of permitted model solutions. This choice is quasi-objective in terms of model interpretation, as the selected model shows a high degree of similarity with almost all other permitted models (correlation superior to 98% up to spherical harmonic degree 80). The obtained tomographic model is displayed in the mid lower-mantle (660-1910 km depth), and is shown to be compatible with three other recent global shear-velocity models. A wider application of the presented rationale should permit us to converge towards more objective seismic imaging of Earth's mantle.

Combining Feature Selection and Integration—A Neural Model for MT Motion Selectivity

PubMed Central

Beck, Cornelia; Neumann, Heiko

2011-01-01

Background The computation of pattern motion in visual area MT based on motion input from area V1 has been investigated in many experiments and models attempting to replicate the main mechanisms. Two different core conceptual approaches were developed to explain the findings. In integrationist models the key mechanism to achieve pattern selectivity is the nonlinear integration of V1 motion activity. In contrast, selectionist models focus on the motion computation at positions with 2D features. Methodology/Principal Findings Recent experiments revealed that neither of the two concepts alone is sufficient to explain all experimental data and that most of the existing models cannot account for the complex behaviour found. MT pattern selectivity changes over time for stimuli like type II plaids from vector average to the direction computed with an intersection of constraint rule or by feature tracking. Also, the spatial arrangement of the stimulus within the receptive field of a MT cell plays a crucial role. We propose a recurrent neural model showing how feature integration and selection can be combined into one common architecture to explain these findings. The key features of the model are the computation of 1D and 2D motion in model area V1 subpopulations that are integrated in model MT cells using feedforward and feedback processing. Our results are also in line with findings concerning the solution of the aperture problem. Conclusions/Significance We propose a new neural model for MT pattern computation and motion disambiguation that is based on a combination of feature selection and integration. The model can explain a range of recent neurophysiological findings including temporally dynamic behaviour. PMID:21814543

Interactive training model of TRIZ for mechanical engineers in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Runhua; Zhang, Huangao

2014-03-01

Innovation is a process of taking an original idea and converting it into a business value, in which the engineers face some inventive problems which can be solved hardly by experience. TRIZ, as a new theory for companies in China, provides both conceptual and procedural knowledge for finding and solving inventive problems. Because the government plays a leading role in the diffusion of TRIZ, too many companies from different industries are waiting to be trained, but the quantity of the trainers mastering TRIZ is incompatible with that requirement. In this context, to improve the training effect, an interactive training model of TRIZ for the mechanical engineers in China is developed and the implementation in the form of training classes is carried out. The training process is divided into 6 phases as follows: selecting engineers, training stage-1, finding problems, training stage-2, finding solutions and summing up. The government, TRIZ institutions and companies to join the programs interact during the process. The government initiates and monitors a project in form of a training class of TRIZ and selects companies to join the programs. Each selected companies choose a few engineers to join the class and supervises the training result. The TRIZ institutions design the training courses and carry out training curriculum. With the beginning of the class, an effective communication channel is established by means of interview, discussion face to face, E-mail, QQ and so on. After two years training practices, the results show that innovative abilities of the engineers to join and pass the final examinations increased distinctly, and most of companies joined the training class have taken congnizance of the power of TRIZ for product innovation. This research proposes an interactive training model of TRIZ for mechanical engineers in China to expedite the knowledge diffusion of TRIZ.

Selection of software for mechanical engineering undergraduates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheah, C. T.; Yin, C. S.; Halim, T.

A major problem with the undergraduate mechanical course is the limited exposure of students to software packages coupled with the long learning curve on the existing software packages. This work proposes the use of appropriate software packages for the entire mechanical engineering curriculum to ensure students get sufficient exposure real life design problems. A variety of software packages are highlighted as being suitable for undergraduate work in mechanical engineering, e.g. simultaneous non-linear equations; uncertainty analysis; 3-D modeling software with the FEA; analysis tools for the solution of problems in thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, mechanical system design, and solid mechanics.

The menu-setting problem and subsidized prices: drug formulary illustration.

PubMed

Olmstead, T; Zeckhauser, R

1999-10-01

The menu-setting problem (MSP) determines the goods and services an institution offers and the prices charged. It appears widely in health care, from choosing the services an insurance arrangement offers, to selecting the health plans an employer proffers. The challenge arises because purchases are subsidized, and consumers (or their physician agents) may make cost-ineffective choices. The intuitively comprehensible MSP model--readily solved by computer using actual data--helps structure thinking and support decision making about such problems. The analysis uses drug formularies--lists of approved drugs in a plan or institution--to illustrate the framework.

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.

2007-01-01

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modeling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion that may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of non-linear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares with the addition of an l(Sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional l(sub 2) minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudo-linear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) Active Aeroelastic Wing project using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Managing distribution changes in time series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matias, J. M.; Gonzalez-Manteiga, W.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.

2006-07-01

When a problem is modeled statistically, a single distribution model is usually postulated that is assumed to be valid for the entire space. Nonetheless, this practice may be somewhat unrealistic in certain application areas, in which the conditions of the process that generates the data may change; as far as we are aware, however, no techniques have been developed to tackle this problem.This article proposes a technique for modeling and predicting this change in time series with a view to improving estimates and predictions. The technique is applied, among other models, to the hypernormal distribution recently proposed. When tested on real data from a range of stock market indices the technique produces better results that when a single distribution model is assumed to be valid for the entire period of time studied.Moreover, when a global model is postulated, it is highly recommended to select the hypernormal distribution parameter in the same likelihood maximization process.

A Genetic Algorithm Based Support Vector Machine Model for Blood-Brain Barrier Penetration Prediction

PubMed Central

Zhang, Daqing; Xiao, Jianfeng; Zhou, Nannan; Luo, Xiaomin; Jiang, Hualiang; Chen, Kaixian

2015-01-01

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) is a highly complex physical barrier determining what substances are allowed to enter the brain. Support vector machine (SVM) is a kernel-based machine learning method that is widely used in QSAR study. For a successful SVM model, the kernel parameters for SVM and feature subset selection are the most important factors affecting prediction accuracy. In most studies, they are treated as two independent problems, but it has been proven that they could affect each other. We designed and implemented genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize kernel parameters and feature subset selection for SVM regression and applied it to the BBB penetration prediction. The results show that our GA/SVM model is more accurate than other currently available log BB models. Therefore, to optimize both SVM parameters and feature subset simultaneously with genetic algorithm is a better approach than other methods that treat the two problems separately. Analysis of our log BB model suggests that carboxylic acid group, polar surface area (PSA)/hydrogen-bonding ability, lipophilicity, and molecular charge play important role in BBB penetration. Among those properties relevant to BBB penetration, lipophilicity could enhance the BBB penetration while all the others are negatively correlated with BBB penetration. PMID:26504797

In vitro models.

PubMed

Mather, Jennie Powell

2012-02-01

The current resurgence of interest in the cancer stem cell (CSC) hypothesis as possibly providing a unifying theory of cancer biology is fueled by the growing body of work on normal adult tissue stem cells and the promise that CSC may hold the key to one of the central problems of clinical oncology: tumor recurrence. Many studies suggest that the microenvironment plays a role, perhaps a seminal one, in cancer development and progression. In addition, the possibility that the stem cell-like component of tumors is capable of rapid and reversible changes of phenotype raises questions concerning studies with these populations and the application of what we learn to the clinical situation. These types of questions are extremely difficult to study using in vivo models or freshly isolated cells. Established cell lines grown in defined conditions provide important model systems for these studies. There are three types of in vitro models for CSCs: (a) selected subpopulations of existing tumor lines (derived from serum-containing medium; (b) creation of lines from tumor or normal cells by genetic manipulation; or (c) direct in vitro selection of CSC from tumors or sorted tumor cells using defined serum-free conditions. We review the problems associated with creating and maintaining in vitro cultures of CSCs and the progress to date on the establishment of these important models. Copyright © 2011 AlphaMed Press.

A software tool for dataflow graph scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Robert L., III

1994-01-01

A graph-theoretic design process and software tool is presented for selecting a multiprocessing scheduling solution for a class of computational problems. The problems of interest are those that can be described using a dataflow graph and are intended to be executed repetitively on multiple processors. The dataflow paradigm is very useful in exposing the parallelism inherent in algorithms. It provides a graphical and mathematical model which describes a partial ordering of algorithm tasks based on data precedence.

Modeling selective attention using a neuromorphic analog VLSI device.

PubMed

Indiveri, G

2000-12-01

Attentional mechanisms are required to overcome the problem of flooding a limited processing capacity system with information. They are present in biological sensory systems and can be a useful engineering tool for artificial visual systems. In this article we present a hardware model of a selective attention mechanism implemented on a very large-scale integration (VLSI) chip, using analog neuromorphic circuits. The chip exploits a spike-based representation to receive, process, and transmit signals. It can be used as a transceiver module for building multichip neuromorphic vision systems. We describe the circuits that carry out the main processing stages of the selective attention mechanism and provide experimental data for each circuit. We demonstrate the expected behavior of the model at the system level by stimulating the chip with both artificially generated control signals and signals obtained from a saliency map, computed from an image containing several salient features.

A hybrid learning method for constructing compact rule-based fuzzy models.

PubMed

Zhao, Wanqing; Niu, Qun; Li, Kang; Irwin, George W

2013-12-01

The Takagi–Sugeno–Kang-type rule-based fuzzy model has found many applications in different fields; a major challenge is, however, to build a compact model with optimized model parameters which leads to satisfactory model performance. To produce a compact model, most existing approaches mainly focus on selecting an appropriate number of fuzzy rules. In contrast, this paper considers not only the selection of fuzzy rules but also the structure of each rule premise and consequent, leading to the development of a novel compact rule-based fuzzy model. Here, each fuzzy rule is associated with two sets of input attributes, in which the first is used for constructing the rule premise and the other is employed in the rule consequent. A new hybrid learning method combining the modified harmony search method with a fast recursive algorithm is hereby proposed to determine the structure and the parameters for the rule premises and consequents. This is a hard mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem, and the proposed hybrid method solves the problem by employing an embedded framework, leading to a significantly reduced number of model parameters and a small number of fuzzy rules with each being as simple as possible. Results from three examples are presented to demonstrate the compactness (in terms of the number of model parameters and the number of rules) and the performance of the fuzzy models obtained by the proposed hybrid learning method, in comparison with other techniques from the literature.

A genetic algorithm approach to estimate glacier mass variations from GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimond, Stefan; Klinger, Beate; Krauss, Sandro; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten

2017-04-01

The application of a genetic algorithm (GA) to the inference of glacier mass variations with a point-mass modeling method is described. GRACE K-band ranging data (available since April 2002) processed at the Graz University of Technology serve as input for this study. The reformulation of the point-mass inversion method in terms of an optimization problem is motivated by two reasons: first, an improved choice of the positions of the modeled point-masses (with a particular focus on the depth parameter) is expected to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. Considering these coordinates as additional unknown parameters (besides from the mass change magnitudes) results in a highly non-linear optimization problem. The second reason is that the mass inversion from satellite tracking data is an ill-posed problem, and hence regularization becomes necessary. The main task in this context is the determination of the regularization parameter, which is typically done by means of heuristic selection rules like, e.g., the L-curve criterion. In this study, however, the challenge of selecting a suitable balancing parameter (or even a matrix) is tackled by introducing regularization to the overall optimization problem. Based on this novel approach, estimations of ice-mass changes in various alpine glacier systems (e.g. Svalbard) are presented and compared to existing results and alternative inversion methods.

Parana Basin Structure from Multi-Objective Inversion of Surface Wave and Receiver Function by Competent Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, M.; Assumpcao, M.

2003-12-01

The joint inversion of receiver function and surface wave is an effective way to diminish the influences of the strong tradeoff among parameters and the different sensitivity to the model parameters in their respective inversions, but the inversion problem becomes more complex. Multi-objective problems can be much more complicated than single-objective inversion in the model selection and optimization. If objectives are involved and conflicting, models can be ordered only partially. In this case, Pareto-optimal preference should be used to select solutions. On the other hand, the inversion to get only a few optimal solutions can not deal properly with the strong tradeoff between parameters, the uncertainties in the observation, the geophysical complexities and even the incompetency of the inversion technique. The effective way is to retrieve the geophysical information statistically from many acceptable solutions, which requires more competent global algorithms. Competent genetic algorithms recently proposed are far superior to the conventional genetic algorithm and can solve hard problems quickly, reliably and accurately. In this work we used one of competent genetic algorithms, Bayesian Optimization Algorithm as the main inverse procedure. This algorithm uses Bayesian networks to draw out inherited information and can use Pareto-optimal preference in the inversion. With this algorithm, the lithospheric structure of Paran"› basin is inverted to fit both the observations of inter-station surface wave dispersion and receiver function.

Methods for reducing interference in the Complementary Learning Systems model: oscillating inhibition and autonomous memory rehearsal.

PubMed

Norman, Kenneth A; Newman, Ehren L; Perotte, Adler J

2005-11-01

The stability-plasticity problem (i.e. how the brain incorporates new information into its model of the world, while at the same time preserving existing knowledge) has been at the forefront of computational memory research for several decades. In this paper, we critically evaluate how well the Complementary Learning Systems theory of hippocampo-cortical interactions addresses the stability-plasticity problem. We identify two major challenges for the model: Finding a learning algorithm for cortex and hippocampus that enacts selective strengthening of weak memories, and selective punishment of competing memories; and preventing catastrophic forgetting in the case of non-stationary environments (i.e. when items are temporarily removed from the training set). We then discuss potential solutions to these problems: First, we describe a recently developed learning algorithm that leverages neural oscillations to find weak parts of memories (so they can be strengthened) and strong competitors (so they can be punished), and we show how this algorithm outperforms other learning algorithms (CPCA Hebbian learning and Leabra at memorizing overlapping patterns. Second, we describe how autonomous re-activation of memories (separately in cortex and hippocampus) during REM sleep, coupled with the oscillating learning algorithm, can reduce the rate of forgetting of input patterns that are no longer present in the environment. We then present a simple demonstration of how this process can prevent catastrophic interference in an AB-AC learning paradigm.

Non-ignorable missingness item response theory models for choice effects in examinee-selected items.

PubMed

Liu, Chen-Wei; Wang, Wen-Chung

2017-11-01

Examinee-selected item (ESI) design, in which examinees are required to respond to a fixed number of items in a given set, always yields incomplete data (i.e., when only the selected items are answered, data are missing for the others) that are likely non-ignorable in likelihood inference. Standard item response theory (IRT) models become infeasible when ESI data are missing not at random (MNAR). To solve this problem, the authors propose a two-dimensional IRT model that posits one unidimensional IRT model for observed data and another for nominal selection patterns. The two latent variables are assumed to follow a bivariate normal distribution. In this study, the mirt freeware package was adopted to estimate parameters. The authors conduct an experiment to demonstrate that ESI data are often non-ignorable and to determine how to apply the new model to the data collected. Two follow-up simulation studies are conducted to assess the parameter recovery of the new model and the consequences for parameter estimation of ignoring MNAR data. The results of the two simulation studies indicate good parameter recovery of the new model and poor parameter recovery when non-ignorable missing data were mistakenly treated as ignorable. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Automatic programming of simulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, Shou X.; Dwan, Wen S.

1990-01-01

The concepts of software engineering were used to improve the simulation modeling environment. Emphasis was placed on the application of an element of rapid prototyping, or automatic programming, to assist the modeler define the problem specification. Then, once the problem specification has been defined, an automatic code generator is used to write the simulation code. The following two domains were selected for evaluating the concepts of software engineering for discrete event simulation: manufacturing domain and a spacecraft countdown network sequence. The specific tasks were to: (1) define the software requirements for a graphical user interface to the Automatic Manufacturing Programming System (AMPS) system; (2) develop a graphical user interface for AMPS; and (3) compare the AMPS graphical interface with the AMPS interactive user interface.

On determining important aspects of mathematical models: Application to problems in physics and chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabitz, Herschel

1987-01-01

The use of parametric and functional gradient sensitivity analysis techniques is considered for models described by partial differential equations. By interchanging appropriate dependent and independent variables, questions of inverse sensitivity may be addressed to gain insight into the inversion of observational data for parameter and function identification in mathematical models. It may be argued that the presence of a subset of dominantly strong coupled dependent variables will result in the overall system sensitivity behavior collapsing into a simple set of scaling and self similarity relations amongst elements of the entire matrix of sensitivity coefficients. These general tools are generic in nature, but herein their application to problems arising in selected areas of physics and chemistry is presented.

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Technique for Gradation of Jute Fibres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhuri, P. K.

2014-12-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making is a branch of Operation Research (OR) having a comparatively short history of about 40 years. It is being popularly used in the field of engineering, banking, fixing policy matters etc. It can also be applied for taking decisions in daily life like selecting a car to purchase, selecting bride or groom and many others. Various MCDM methods namely Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Weighted Product Model (WPM), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) and Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) are there to solve many decision making problems, each having its own limitations. However it is very difficult to decide which MCDM method is the best. MCDM methods are prospective quantitative approaches for solving decision problems involving finite number of alternatives and criteria. Very few research works in textiles have been carried out with the help of this technique particularly where decision taking among several alternatives becomes the major problem based on some criteria which are conflicting in nature. Gradation of jute fibres on the basis of the criteria like strength, root content, defects, colour, density, fineness etc. is an important task to perform. The MCDM technique provides enough scope to be applied for the gradation of jute fibres or ranking among several varieties keeping in view a particular object and on the basis of some selection criteria and their relative weightage. The present paper is an attempt to explore the scope of applying the multiplicative AHP method of multi-criteria decision making technique to determine the quality values of selected jute fibres on the basis of some above stated important criteria and ranking them accordingly. A good agreement in ranking is observed between the existing Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) grading and proposed method.

Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

PubMed

Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

2017-04-15

Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Conceptual Framework for Predicting Error in Complex Human-Machine Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

We present a Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection Rules-Model Human Processor (GOMS-MHP) style model-based approach to the problem of predicting human habit capture errors. Habit captures occur when the model fails to allocate limited cognitive resources to retrieve task-relevant information from memory. Lacking the unretrieved information, decision mechanisms act in accordance with implicit default assumptions, resulting in error when relied upon assumptions prove incorrect. The model helps interface designers identify situations in which such failures are especially likely.

Data-driven advice for applying machine learning to bioinformatics problems

PubMed Central

Olson, Randal S.; La Cava, William; Mustahsan, Zairah; Varik, Akshay; Moore, Jason H.

2017-01-01

As the bioinformatics field grows, it must keep pace not only with new data but with new algorithms. Here we contribute a thorough analysis of 13 state-of-the-art, commonly used machine learning algorithms on a set of 165 publicly available classification problems in order to provide data-driven algorithm recommendations to current researchers. We present a number of statistical and visual comparisons of algorithm performance and quantify the effect of model selection and algorithm tuning for each algorithm and dataset. The analysis culminates in the recommendation of five algorithms with hyperparameters that maximize classifier performance across the tested problems, as well as general guidelines for applying machine learning to supervised classification problems. PMID:29218881

A Solution Method of Scheduling Problem with Worker Allocation by a Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osawa, Akira; Ida, Kenichi

In a scheduling problem with worker allocation (SPWA) proposed by Iima et al, the worker's skill level to each machine is all the same. However, each worker has a different skill level for each machine in the real world. For that reason, we propose a new model of SPWA in which a worker has the different skill level to each machine. To solve the problem, we propose a new GA for SPWA consisting of the following new three procedures, shortening of idle time, modifying infeasible solution to feasible solution, and a new selection method for GA. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is clarified by numerical experiments using benchmark problems for job-shop scheduling.

The TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS): design, current status, and selected findings.

PubMed

Ormel, Johan; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Sijtsema, Jelle; van Oort, Floor; Raven, Dennis; Veenstra, Rene; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Verhulst, Frank C

2012-10-01

The objectives of this study were as follows: to present a concise overview of the sample, outcomes, determinants, non-response and attrition of the ongoing TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS), which started in 2001; to summarize a selection of recent findings on continuity, discontinuity, risk, and protective factors of mental health problems; and to document the development of psychopathology during adolescence, focusing on whether the increase of problem behavior often seen in adolescence is a general phenomenon or more prevalent in vulnerable teens, thereby giving rise to diverging developmental pathways. The first and second objectives were achieved using descriptive statistics and selective review of previous TRAILS publications; and the third objective by analyzing longitudinal data on internalizing and externalizing problems using Linear Mixed Models (LMM). The LMM analyses supported the notion of diverging pathways for rule-breaking behaviors but not for anxiety, depression, or aggression. Overall, rule-breaking (in both genders) and withdrawn/depressed behavior (in girls) increased, whereas aggression and anxious/depressed behavior decreased during adolescence. TRAILS has produced a wealth of data and has contributed substantially to our understanding of mental health problems and social development during adolescence. Future waves will expand this database into adulthood. The typical development of problem behaviors in adolescence differs considerably across both problem dimensions and gender. Developmental pathways during adolescence suggest accumulation of risk (i.e., diverging pathways) for rule-breaking behavior. However, those of anxiety, depression and aggression slightly converge, suggesting the influence of counter-forces and changes in risk unrelated to initial problem levels and underlying vulnerability. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A localized model of spatial cognition in chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stieff, Mike

This dissertation challenges the assumption that spatial cognition, particularly visualization, is the key component to problem solving in chemistry. In contrast to this assumption, I posit a localized, or task-specific, model of spatial cognition in chemistry problem solving to locate the exact tasks in a traditional organic chemistry curriculum that require students to use visualization strategies to problem solve. Instead of assuming that visualization is required for most chemistry tasks simply because chemistry concerns invisible three-dimensional entities, I instead use the framework of the localized model to identify how students do and do not make use of visualization strategies on a wide variety of assessment tasks regardless of each task's explicit demand for spatial cognition. I establish the dimensions of the localized model with five studies. First, I designed two novel psychometrics to reveal how students selectively use visualization strategies to interpret and analyze molecular structures. The third study comprised a document analysis of the organic chemistry assessments that empirically determined only 12% of these tasks explicitly require visualization. The fourth study concerned a series of correlation analyses between measures of visuo-spatial ability and chemistry performance to clarify the impact of individual differences. Finally, I performed a series of micro-genetic analyses of student problem solving that confirmed the earlier findings and revealed students prefer to visualize molecules from alternative perspectives without using mental rotation. The results of each study reveal that occurrences of sophisticated spatial cognition are relatively infrequent in chemistry, despite instructors' ostensible emphasis on the visualization of three-dimensional structures. To the contrary, students eschew visualization strategies and instead rely on the use of molecular diagrams to scaffold spatial cognition. Visualization does play a key role, however, in problem solving on a select group of chemistry tasks that require students to translate molecular representations or fundamentally alter the morphology of a molecule. Ultimately, this dissertation calls into question the assumption that individual differences in visuo-spatial ability play a critical role in determining who succeeds in chemistry. The results of this work establish a foundation for defining the precise manner in which visualization tools can best support problem solving.

Mathematics Literacy on Problem Based Learning with Indonesian Realistic Mathematics Education Approach Assisted E-Learning Edmodo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardono; Waluya, S. B.; Mariani, Scolastika; Candra D, S.

2016-02-01

This study aims to find out that there are differences in mathematical literacy ability in content Change and Relationship class VII Junior High School 19, Semarang by Problem Based Learning (PBL) model with an Indonesian Realistic Mathematics Education (called Pendidikan Matematika Realistik Indonesia or PMRI in Indonesia) approach assisted Elearning Edmodo, PBL with a PMRI approach, and expository; to know whether the group of students with learning PBL models with PMRI approach and assisted E-learning Edmodo can improve mathematics literacy; to know that the quality of learning PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo has a good category; to describe the difficulties of students in working the problems of mathematical literacy ability oriented PISA. This research is a mixed methods study. The population was seventh grade students of Junior High School 19, Semarang Indonesia. Sample selection is done by random sampling so that the selected experimental class 1, class 2 and the control experiment. Data collected by the methods of documentation, tests and interviews. From the results of this study showed average mathematics literacy ability of students in the group PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo better than average mathematics literacy ability of students in the group PBL models with a PMRI approach and better than average mathematics literacy ability of students in the expository models; Mathematics literacy ability in the class using the PBL model with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo have increased and the improvement of mathematics literacy ability is higher than the improvement of mathematics literacy ability of class that uses the model of PBL learning with PMRI approach and is higher than the improvement of mathematics literacy ability of class that uses the expository models; The quality of learning using PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo have very good category.

Comparative Modeling Studies of Boreal Water and Carbon Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coughlan, J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The coordination of the modeling and field efforts for an Intensive Field Campaign (IFC) may resemble the chicken and egg dilemma. This session's theme advocates that early and proactive involvement by modeling teams can produce a scientific and operational benefit for the IFC and Experiment. This talk will provide some examples and suggestions originating from the NASA funded IFC's of the FIFE First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment, Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) and predominately Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Experiments. In February 1994 and prior to the final selection of the BOREAS study sites, a group of funded BOREAS investigators agreed to run their models with data for five community types representing the proposed tower flux sites. All participating models were given identical initial values and boundary conditions and driven with identical climate data. The objectives of the intercomparison exercise were: 1) compare simulation results of participating terrestrial, hydrological, and atmospheric models over selected time frames; 2) learn about model behavior and sensitivity to estimated boreal site and vegetation definitions; 3) prioritize BOREAS field data collection efforts supporting modeling studies; 4) identify individual model deficiencies as early as possible. Out of these objectives evolved some important coordination and science issues for the BOREAS Experiment that can be generalized to IFCs and long term archiving of the data. Some problems are acceptable because they are endemic to maintaining fair and open competition prior to the peer review process. Others are logistical and addressable through application of planning, management, and information sciences. This investigator has identified one source of measurement and model incompatibility that is manifest in the IFC scaling approach. Although intuitively obvious, scaling problems are already more formally defined in the Geography literature. An example of the scaling problem will be demonstrated with Vegetation/Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and OTTER data.

Simple models for estimating local removals of timber in the northeast

Treesearch

David N. Larsen; David A. Gansner

1975-01-01

Provides a practical method of estimating subregional removals of timber and demonstrates its application to a typical problem. Stepwise multiple regression analysis is used to develop equations for estimating removals of softwood, hardwood, and all timber from selected characteristics of socioeconomic structure.

A decision modeling for phasor measurement unit location selection in smart grid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seung Yup

As a key technology for enhancing the smart grid system, Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) provides synchronized phasor measurements of voltages and currents of wide-area electric power grid. With various benefits from its application, one of the critical issues in utilizing PMUs is the optimal site selection of units. The main aim of this research is to develop a decision support system, which can be used in resource allocation task for smart grid system analysis. As an effort to suggest a robust decision model and standardize the decision modeling process, a harmonized modeling framework, which considers operational circumstances of component, is proposed in connection with a deterministic approach utilizing integer programming. With the results obtained from the optimal PMU placement problem, the advantages and potential that the harmonized modeling process possesses are assessed and discussed.

How do biological systems discriminate among physically similar ions?

PubMed

Diamond, J M

1975-10-01

This paper reviews the history of understanding how biological systems can discriminate so strikingly among physically similar ions, especially alkali cations. Appreciation of qualitative regularities ("permitted sequences") and quantitative regularities ("selectivity isotherms") in ion selectivity grew first from studies of ion exchangers and glass electrodes, then of biological systems such as enzymes and cell membranes, and most recently of lipid bilayers doped with model pores and carriers. Discrimination of ions depends on both electrostatic and steric forces. "Black-box" studies on intact biological membranes have in some cases yielded molecular clues to the structure of the actual biological pores and carriers. Major current problems involve the extraction of these molecules; how to do it, what to do when it is achieved, and how (and if) it is relevant to the central problems of membrane function. Further advances are expected soon from studies of rate barriers within membranes, of voltage-dependent ("excitable") conducting channels, and of increasingly complex model systems and biological membranes.

Empirical Performance of Cross-Validation With Oracle Methods in a Genomics Context

PubMed Central

Martinez, Josue G.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Müller, Samuel; Sampson, Joshua N.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2012-01-01

When employing model selection methods with oracle properties such as the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and the Adaptive Lasso, it is typical to estimate the smoothing parameter by m-fold cross-validation, for example, m = 10. In problems where the true regression function is sparse and the signals large, such cross-validation typically works well. However, in regression modeling of genomic studies involving Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP), the true regression functions, while thought to be sparse, do not have large signals. We demonstrate empirically that in such problems, the number of selected variables using SCAD and the Adaptive Lasso, with 10-fold cross-validation, is a random variable that has considerable and surprising variation. Similar remarks apply to non-oracle methods such as the Lasso. Our study strongly questions the suitability of performing only a single run of m-fold cross-validation with any oracle method, and not just the SCAD and Adaptive Lasso. PMID:22347720

Experimental design for estimating unknown groundwater pumping using genetic algorithm and reduced order model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushijima, Timothy T.; Yeh, William W.-G.

2013-10-01

An optimal experimental design algorithm is developed to select locations for a network of observation wells that provide maximum information about unknown groundwater pumping in a confined, anisotropic aquifer. The design uses a maximal information criterion that chooses, among competing designs, the design that maximizes the sum of squared sensitivities while conforming to specified design constraints. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex and contains integer variables necessitating a combinatorial search. Given a realistic large-scale model, the size of the combinatorial search required can make the problem difficult, if not impossible, to solve using traditional mathematical programming techniques. Genetic algorithms (GAs) can be used to perform the global search; however, because a GA requires a large number of calls to a groundwater model, the formulated optimization problem still may be infeasible to solve. As a result, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is applied to the groundwater model to reduce its dimensionality. Then, the information matrix in the full model space can be searched without solving the full model. Results from a small-scale test case show identical optimal solutions among the GA, integer programming, and exhaustive search methods. This demonstrates the GA's ability to determine the optimal solution. In addition, the results show that a GA with POD model reduction is several orders of magnitude faster in finding the optimal solution than a GA using the full model. The proposed experimental design algorithm is applied to a realistic, two-dimensional, large-scale groundwater problem. The GA converged to a solution for this large-scale problem.

A POD reduced order model for resolving angular direction in neutron/photon transport problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchan, A.G., E-mail: andrew.buchan@imperial.ac.uk; Calloo, A.A.; Goffin, M.G.

2015-09-01

This article presents the first Reduced Order Model (ROM) that efficiently resolves the angular dimension of the time independent, mono-energetic Boltzmann Transport Equation (BTE). It is based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and uses the method of snapshots to form optimal basis functions for resolving the direction of particle travel in neutron/photon transport problems. A unique element of this work is that the snapshots are formed from the vector of angular coefficients relating to a high resolution expansion of the BTE's angular dimension. In addition, the individual snapshots are not recorded through time, as in standard POD, but instead theymore » are recorded through space. In essence this work swaps the roles of the dimensions space and time in standard POD methods, with angle and space respectively. It is shown here how the POD model can be formed from the POD basis functions in a highly efficient manner. The model is then applied to two radiation problems; one involving the transport of radiation through a shield and the other through an infinite array of pins. Both problems are selected for their complex angular flux solutions in order to provide an appropriate demonstration of the model's capabilities. It is shown that the POD model can resolve these fluxes efficiently and accurately. In comparison to high resolution models this POD model can reduce the size of a problem by up to two orders of magnitude without compromising accuracy. Solving times are also reduced by similar factors.« less

A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

Quantification of uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval arising from aerosol microphysical model and other sources, applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2014-05-01

Satellite instruments are nowadays successfully utilised for measuring atmospheric aerosol in many applications as well as in research. Therefore, there is a growing need for rigorous error characterisation of the measurements. Here, we introduce a methodology for quantifying the uncertainty in the retrieval of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). In particular, we concentrate on two aspects: uncertainty due to aerosol microphysical model selection and uncertainty due to imperfect forward modelling. We apply the introduced methodology for aerosol optical thickness retrieval of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, launched in 2004. We apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness retrieval by propagating aerosol microphysical model selection and forward model error more realistically. For the microphysical model selection problem, we utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods. Gaussian processes are utilised to characterise the smooth systematic discrepancies between the measured and modelled reflectances (i.e. residuals). The spectral correlation is composed empirically by exploring a set of residuals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud-free, over-land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques introduced here. The method and improved uncertainty characterisation is demonstrated by several examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara desert dust. The statistical methodology presented is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Pattern selection in solidification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langer, J. S.

1984-01-01

Directional solidification of alloys produces a wide variety of cellular or lamellar structures which, depending upon growth conditions, may be reproducibly regular or may behave chaotically. It is not well understood how these patterns are selected and controlled or even whether there ever exist sharp selection mechanisms. A related phenomenon is the spatial propagation of a pattern into a system which has been caused to become unstable against pattern-forming deformations. This phenomenon has some features in common with the propagation of sidebranching modes in dendritic solidification. In a class of one-dimensional models, the nonlinear system can be shown to select the propagating mode in which the leading edge of the pattern is just marginally stable. This stability principle, when applicable, predicts both the speed of propagation and the geometrical characteristics of the pattern which forms behind the moving front. A boundary-layer model for fully two or three dimensional solidification problems appears to exhibit similar mathematical behavior.

Selective memory generalization by spatial patterning of protein synthesis

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Cian; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2014-01-01

Summary Protein synthesis is crucial for both persistent synaptic plasticity and long-term memory. De novo protein expression can be restricted to specific neurons within a population, and to specific dendrites within a single neuron. Despite its ubiquity, the functional benefits of spatial protein regulation for learning are unknown. We used computational modeling to study this problem. We found that spatially patterned protein synthesis can enable selective consolidation of some memories but forgetting of others, even for simultaneous events that are represented by the same neural population. Key factors regulating selectivity include the functional clustering of synapses on dendrites, and the sparsity and overlap of neural activity patterns at the circuit level. Based on these findings we proposed a novel two-step model for selective memory generalization during REM and slow-wave sleep. The pattern-matching framework we propose may be broadly applicable to spatial protein signaling throughout cortex and hippocampus. PMID:24742462

Selective memory generalization by spatial patterning of protein synthesis.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Cian; Sejnowski, Terrence J

2014-04-16

Protein synthesis is crucial for both persistent synaptic plasticity and long-term memory. De novo protein expression can be restricted to specific neurons within a population, and to specific dendrites within a single neuron. Despite its ubiquity, the functional benefits of spatial protein regulation for learning are unknown. We used computational modeling to study this problem. We found that spatially patterned protein synthesis can enable selective consolidation of some memories but forgetting of others, even for simultaneous events that are represented by the same neural population. Key factors regulating selectivity include the functional clustering of synapses on dendrites, and the sparsity and overlap of neural activity patterns at the circuit level. Based on these findings, we proposed a two-step model for selective memory generalization during REM and slow-wave sleep. The pattern-matching framework we propose may be broadly applicable to spatial protein signaling throughout cortex and hippocampus. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PHYSICS OF OUR DAYS: Nonlinear long waves on water and solitons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeytounian, R. Kh

1995-12-01

The water wave problem has been pivotal in the history of nonlinear wave theory. This problem is one of the most interesting and successful applications of nonlinear hydrodynamics. Waves on the free surface of a body of water (perfect liquid) have always been a fascinating subject, for they represent a familiar yet complex phenomenon, easy to observe but very difficult to describe! The archetypical model equations of Kordeweg and de Vries and of Boussinesq, for example, were originally derived as approximations for water waves, and research into the problem has been sustained vigorously up to the present day. In the present paper, the derivation of the model equations is given in depth and rational use is made of asymptotic methods. Indeed, it is important to understand that in some cases the derivation of these approximate equations is intuitive and heuristic. In fact, it is not clear how to insert the model equation under consideration into a hierarchy of rational approximations, which in turn result from the exact formulation of the selected water wave problem.

Selection of adequate site location during early stages of construction project management: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marović, Ivan; Hanak, Tomaš

2017-10-01

In the management of construction projects special attention should be given to the planning as the most important phase of decision-making process. Quality decision-making based on adequate and comprehensive collaboration of all involved stakeholders is crucial in project’s early stages. Fundamental reasons for existence of this problem arise from: specific conditions of construction industry (final products are inseparable from the location i.e. location has a strong influence of building design and its structural characteristics as well as technology which will be used during construction), investors’ desires and attitudes, and influence of socioeconomic and environment aspects. Considering all mentioned reasons one can conclude that selection of adequate construction site location for future investment is complex, low structured and multi-criteria problem. To take into account all the dimensions, the proposed model for selection of adequate site location is devised. The model is based on AHP (for designing the decision-making hierarchy) and PROMETHEE (for pairwise comparison of investment locations) methods. As a result of mixing basis feature of both methods, operational synergies can be achieved in multi-criteria decision analysis. Such gives the decision-maker a sense of assurance, knowing that if the procedure proposed by the presented model has been followed, it will lead to a rational decision, carefully and systematically thought out.

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Dawal, Siti Zawiah Md; Nukman, Yusoff; Rifai, Achmad P; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts' uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs.

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; P. Rifai, Achmad; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts’ uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs. PMID:27070543

Navigating complex decision spaces: Problems and paradigms in sequential choice

PubMed Central

Walsh, Matthew M.; Anderson, John R.

2015-01-01

To behave adaptively, we must learn from the consequences of our actions. Doing so is difficult when the consequences of an action follow a delay. This introduces the problem of temporal credit assignment. When feedback follows a sequence of decisions, how should the individual assign credit to the intermediate actions that comprise the sequence? Research in reinforcement learning provides two general solutions to this problem: model-free reinforcement learning and model-based reinforcement learning. In this review, we examine connections between stimulus-response and cognitive learning theories, habitual and goal-directed control, and model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. We then consider a range of problems related to temporal credit assignment. These include second-order conditioning and secondary reinforcers, latent learning and detour behavior, partially observable Markov decision processes, actions with distributed outcomes, and hierarchical learning. We ask whether humans and animals, when faced with these problems, behave in a manner consistent with reinforcement learning techniques. Throughout, we seek to identify neural substrates of model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. The former class of techniques is understood in terms of the neurotransmitter dopamine and its effects in the basal ganglia. The latter is understood in terms of a distributed network of regions including the prefrontal cortex, medial temporal lobes cerebellum, and basal ganglia. Not only do reinforcement learning techniques have a natural interpretation in terms of human and animal behavior, but they also provide a useful framework for understanding neural reward valuation and action selection. PMID:23834192

Network models for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization of investment projects control with several acceptable technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorikov, A. F.; Butsenko, E. V.

2017-10-01

This paper discusses the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. On the basis of network modeling proposed a new economic and mathematical model and a method for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. Network economic and mathematical modeling allows you to determine the optimal time and calendar schedule for the implementation of the investment project and serves as an instrument to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the enterprise. On a meaningful practical example, the processes of forming network models are shown, including the definition of the sequence of actions of a particular investment projecting process, the network-based work schedules are constructed. The calculation of the parameters of network models is carried out. Optimal (critical) paths have been formed and the optimal time for implementing the chosen technologies of the investment project has been calculated. It also shows the selection of the optimal technology from a set of possible technologies for project implementation, taking into account the time and cost of the work. The proposed model and method for solving the problem of managing investment projects can serve as a basis for the development, creation and application of appropriate computer information systems to support the adoption of managerial decisions by business people.

Optimum use of air tankers in initial attack: selection, basing, and transfer rules

Treesearch

Francis E. Greulich; William G. O' Regan

1982-01-01

Fire managers face two interrelated problems in deciding the most efficient use of air tankers: where best to base them, and how best to reallocate them each day in anticipation of fire occurrence. A computerized model based on a mixed integer linear program can help in assigning air tankers throughout the fire season. The model was tested using information from...

Vis-NIR spectrometric determination of Brix and sucrose in sugar production samples using kernel partial least squares with interval selection based on the successive projections algorithm.

PubMed

de Almeida, Valber Elias; de Araújo Gomes, Adriano; de Sousa Fernandes, David Douglas; Goicoechea, Héctor Casimiro; Galvão, Roberto Kawakami Harrop; Araújo, Mario Cesar Ugulino

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a new variable selection method for nonlinear multivariate calibration, combining the Successive Projections Algorithm for interval selection (iSPA) with the Kernel Partial Least Squares (Kernel-PLS) modelling technique. The proposed iSPA-Kernel-PLS algorithm is employed in a case study involving a Vis-NIR spectrometric dataset with complex nonlinear features. The analytical problem consists of determining Brix and sucrose content in samples from a sugar production system, on the basis of transflectance spectra. As compared to full-spectrum Kernel-PLS, the iSPA-Kernel-PLS models involve a smaller number of variables and display statistically significant superiority in terms of accuracy and/or bias in the predictions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cadastral data model established and perfected with 4S technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Beijing; He, Jiang; He, Jianpeng

1998-08-01

Considering China's social essential system and the actual case of the formation of cadastral information in urban and rural area, and based on the 4S technology and the theory and method of canton's GPS geodetic data bench developed by the authors, we thoroughly research on some correlative technical problems about establishing and perfecting all-level's microcosmic cadastral data model (called model in the following) once again. Such problems as the following are included: cadastral, feature and topographic information and its modality and expressing method, classifying and grading the model, coordinate system to be selected, data basis for the model, the collecting method and digitalization of information, database's structural model, mathematical model and the establishing technology of 3 or more dimensional model, dynamic monitoring of and the development and application of the model. Then, the domestic and overseas application prospect is revealed. It also has the tendency to intrude markets cooperated with 'data bench' technology or RS image maps' all-analysis digital surveying and mapping technology.

Visual attention based bag-of-words model for image classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiwei; Wan, Shouhong; Yue, Lihua; Wang, Che

2014-04-01

Bag-of-words is a classical method for image classification. The core problem is how to count the frequency of the visual words and what visual words to select. In this paper, we propose a visual attention based bag-of-words model (VABOW model) for image classification task. The VABOW model utilizes visual attention method to generate a saliency map, and uses the saliency map as a weighted matrix to instruct the statistic process for the frequency of the visual words. On the other hand, the VABOW model combines shape, color and texture cues and uses L1 regularization logistic regression method to select the most relevant and most efficient features. We compare our approach with traditional bag-of-words based method on two datasets, and the result shows that our VABOW model outperforms the state-of-the-art method for image classification.

Methods of increasing efficiency and maintainability of pipeline systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. A.; Sokolov, S. M.; Ogudova, E. V.

2018-05-01

This study is dedicated to the issue of pipeline transportation system maintenance. The article identifies two classes of technical-and-economic indices, which are used to select an optimal pipeline transportation system structure. Further, the article determines various system maintenance strategies and strategy selection criteria. Meanwhile, the maintenance strategies turn out to be not sufficiently effective due to non-optimal values of maintenance intervals. This problem could be solved by running the adaptive maintenance system, which includes a pipeline transportation system reliability improvement algorithm, especially an equipment degradation computer model. In conclusion, three model building approaches for determining optimal technical systems verification inspections duration were considered.

Optimisation of strain selection in evolutionary continuous culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayen, T.; Mairet, F.

2017-12-01

In this work, we study a minimal time control problem for a perfectly mixed continuous culture with n ≥ 2 species and one limiting resource. The model that we consider includes a mutation factor for the microorganisms. Our aim is to provide optimal feedback control laws to optimise the selection of the species of interest. Thanks to Pontryagin's Principle, we derive optimality conditions on optimal controls and introduce a sub-optimal control law based on a most rapid approach to a singular arc that depends on the initial condition. Using adaptive dynamics theory, we also study a simplified version of this model which allows to introduce a near optimal strategy.

Validation of numerical models for flow simulation in labyrinth seals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frączek, D.; Wróblewski, W.

2016-10-01

CFD results were compared with the results of experiments for the flow through the labyrinth seal. RANS turbulence models (k-epsilon, k-omega, SST and SST-SAS) were selected for the study. Steady and transient results were analyzed. ANSYS CFX was used for numerical computation. The analysis included flow through sealing section with the honeycomb land. Leakage flows and velocity profiles in the seal were compared. In addition to the comparison of computational models, the divergence of modeling and experimental results has been determined. Tips for modeling these problems were formulated.

Modeling of plant in vitro cultures: overview and estimation of biotechnological processes.

PubMed

Maschke, Rüdiger W; Geipel, Katja; Bley, Thomas

2015-01-01

Plant cell and tissue cultivations are of growing interest for the production of structurally complex and expensive plant-derived products, especially in pharmaceutical production. Problems with up-scaling, low yields, and high-priced process conditions result in an increased demand for models to provide comprehension, simulation, and optimization of production processes. In the last 25 years, many models have evolved in plant biotechnology; the majority of them are specialized models for a few selected products or nutritional conditions. In this article we review, delineate, and discuss the concepts and characteristics of the most commonly used models. Therefore, the authors focus on models for plant suspension and submerged hairy root cultures. The article includes a short overview of modeling and mathematics and integrated parameters, as well as the application scope for each model. The review is meant to help researchers better understand and utilize the numerous models published for plant cultures, and to select the most suitable model for their purposes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

QML-AiNet: An immune network approach to learning qualitative differential equation models

PubMed Central

Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we explore the application of Opt-AiNet, an immune network approach for search and optimisation problems, to learning qualitative models in the form of qualitative differential equations. The Opt-AiNet algorithm is adapted to qualitative model learning problems, resulting in the proposed system QML-AiNet. The potential of QML-AiNet to address the scalability and multimodal search space issues of qualitative model learning has been investigated. More importantly, to further improve the efficiency of QML-AiNet, we also modify the mutation operator according to the features of discrete qualitative model space. Experimental results show that the performance of QML-AiNet is comparable to QML-CLONALG, a QML system using the clonal selection algorithm (CLONALG). More importantly, QML-AiNet with the modified mutation operator can significantly improve the scalability of QML and is much more efficient than QML-CLONALG. PMID:25648212

QML-AiNet: An immune network approach to learning qualitative differential equation models.

PubMed

Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M

2015-02-01

In this paper, we explore the application of Opt-AiNet, an immune network approach for search and optimisation problems, to learning qualitative models in the form of qualitative differential equations. The Opt-AiNet algorithm is adapted to qualitative model learning problems, resulting in the proposed system QML-AiNet. The potential of QML-AiNet to address the scalability and multimodal search space issues of qualitative model learning has been investigated. More importantly, to further improve the efficiency of QML-AiNet, we also modify the mutation operator according to the features of discrete qualitative model space. Experimental results show that the performance of QML-AiNet is comparable to QML-CLONALG, a QML system using the clonal selection algorithm (CLONALG). More importantly, QML-AiNet with the modified mutation operator can significantly improve the scalability of QML and is much more efficient than QML-CLONALG.

BIOCOMPUTATION: some history and prospects.

PubMed

Cull, Paul

2013-06-01

At first glance, biology and computer science are diametrically opposed sciences. Biology deals with carbon based life forms shaped by evolution and natural selection. Computer Science deals with electronic machines designed by engineers and guided by mathematical algorithms. In this brief paper, we review biologically inspired computing. We discuss several models of computation which have arisen from various biological studies. We show what these have in common, and conjecture how biology can still suggest answers and models for the next generation of computing problems. We discuss computation and argue that these biologically inspired models do not extend the theoretical limits on computation. We suggest that, in practice, biological models may give more succinct representations of various problems, and we mention a few cases in which biological models have proved useful. We also discuss the reciprocal impact of computer science on biology and cite a few significant contributions to biological science. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

LAMMPS Project Report for the Trinity KNL Open Science Period.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Stan Gerald; Thompson, Aidan P.; Wood, Mitchell

LAMMPS is a classical molecular dynamics code (lammps.sandia.gov) used to model materials science problems at Sandia National Laboratories and around the world. LAMMPS was one of three Sandia codes selected to participate in the Trinity KNL (TR2) Open Science period. During this period, three different problems of interest were investigated using LAMMPS. The first was benchmarking KNL performance using different force field models. The second was simulating void collapse in shocked HNS energetic material using an all-atom model. The third was simulating shock propagation through poly-crystalline RDX energetic material using a coarse-grain model, the results of which were used inmore » an ACM Gordon Bell Prize submission. This report describes the results of these simulations, lessons learned, and some hardware issues found on Trinity KNL as part of this work.« less

A non-linear optimization programming model for air quality planning including co-benefits for GHG emissions.

PubMed

Turrini, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Finzi, Giovanna; Volta, Marialuisa

2018-04-15

This paper introduces the MAQ (Multi-dimensional Air Quality) model aimed at defining cost-effective air quality plans at different scales (urban to national) and assessing the co-benefits for GHG emissions. The model implements and solves a non-linear multi-objective, multi-pollutant decision problem where the decision variables are the application levels of emission abatement measures allowing the reduction of energy consumption, end-of pipe technologies and fuel switch options. The objectives of the decision problem are the minimization of tropospheric secondary pollution exposure and of internal costs. The model assesses CO 2 equivalent emissions in order to support decision makers in the selection of win-win policies. The methodology is tested on Lombardy region, a heavily polluted area in northern Italy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modes of Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dewatripont, Mathias; Tirole, Jean

2005-01-01

The paper develops a theory of costly communication in which the sender's and receiver's motivations and abilities endogenously determine the communication mode and the transfer of knowledge. Communication is modeled as a problem of moral hazard in teams, in which the sender and receiver select persuasion and message elaboration efforts. The model…

Fraction Representation: The Not-So-Common Denominator among Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodges, Thomas E.; Cady, JoAnn; Collins, Lee

2008-01-01

Three widely used sixth-grade textbooks were studied to see how fraction concepts were represented. The textbooks selected were "Connected Mathematics," "Middle Grades MathThematics," and Glencoe's "Mathematics: Applications and Concepts Course 1." Three specific areas were examined: representation mode, model, and problem context. Results of…

Evaluation of a Nutrition Education Program for Family Practice Residents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, David S.; And Others

1988-01-01

A nutrition education program at the University of South Alabama Medical Center that was based on the "co-counseling model" as described by Moore and Larsen is described. Patients with one of three problem areas were selected for evaluation: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and pregnancy. (MLW)

Computer-Based Mathematics Instructions for Engineering Students

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, Mustaq A.; Wall, Curtiss E.

1996-01-01

Almost every engineering course involves mathematics in one form or another. The analytical process of developing mathematical models is very important for engineering students. However, the computational process involved in the solution of some mathematical problems may be very tedious and time consuming. There is a significant amount of mathematical software such as Mathematica, Mathcad, and Maple designed to aid in the solution of these instructional problems. The use of these packages in classroom teaching can greatly enhance understanding, and save time. Integration of computer technology in mathematics classes, without de-emphasizing the traditional analytical aspects of teaching, has proven very successful and is becoming almost essential. Sample computer laboratory modules are developed for presentation in the classroom setting. This is accomplished through the use of overhead projectors linked to graphing calculators and computers. Model problems are carefully selected from different areas.

Genetic Particle Swarm Optimization–Based Feature Selection for Very-High-Resolution Remotely Sensed Imagery Object Change Detection

PubMed Central

Chen, Qiang; Chen, Yunhao; Jiang, Weiguo

2016-01-01

In the field of multiple features Object-Based Change Detection (OBCD) for very-high-resolution remotely sensed images, image objects have abundant features and feature selection affects the precision and efficiency of OBCD. Through object-based image analysis, this paper proposes a Genetic Particle Swarm Optimization (GPSO)-based feature selection algorithm to solve the optimization problem of feature selection in multiple features OBCD. We select the Ratio of Mean to Variance (RMV) as the fitness function of GPSO, and apply the proposed algorithm to the object-based hybrid multivariate alternative detection model. Two experiment cases on Worldview-2/3 images confirm that GPSO can significantly improve the speed of convergence, and effectively avoid the problem of premature convergence, relative to other feature selection algorithms. According to the accuracy evaluation of OBCD, GPSO is superior at overall accuracy (84.17% and 83.59%) and Kappa coefficient (0.6771 and 0.6314) than other algorithms. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis results show that the proposed algorithm is not easily influenced by the initial parameters, but the number of features to be selected and the size of the particle swarm would affect the algorithm. The comparison experiment results reveal that RMV is more suitable than other functions as the fitness function of GPSO-based feature selection algorithm. PMID:27483285

Genetic-evolution-based optimization methods for engineering design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, S. S.; Pan, T. S.; Dhingra, A. K.; Venkayya, V. B.; Kumar, V.

1990-01-01

This paper presents the applicability of a biological model, based on genetic evolution, for engineering design optimization. Algorithms embodying the ideas of reproduction, crossover, and mutation are developed and applied to solve different types of structural optimization problems. Both continuous and discrete variable optimization problems are solved. A two-bay truss for maximum fundamental frequency is considered to demonstrate the continuous variable case. The selection of locations of actuators in an actively controlled structure, for minimum energy dissipation, is considered to illustrate the discrete variable case.

A modified estimation distribution algorithm based on extreme elitism.

PubMed

Gao, Shujun; de Silva, Clarence W

2016-12-01

An existing estimation distribution algorithm (EDA) with univariate marginal Gaussian model was improved by designing and incorporating an extreme elitism selection method. This selection method highlighted the effect of a few top best solutions in the evolution and advanced EDA to form a primary evolution direction and obtain a fast convergence rate. Simultaneously, this selection can also keep the population diversity to make EDA avoid premature convergence. Then the modified EDA was tested by means of benchmark low-dimensional and high-dimensional optimization problems to illustrate the gains in using this extreme elitism selection. Besides, no-free-lunch theorem was implemented in the analysis of the effect of this new selection on EDAs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Science modelling in pre-calculus: how to make mathematics problems contextually meaningful

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolowski, Andrzej; Yalvac, Bugrahan; Loving, Cathleen

2011-04-01

'Use of mathematical representations to model and interpret physical phenomena and solve problems is one of the major teaching objectives in high school math curriculum' (National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM), Principles and Standards for School Mathematics, NCTM, Reston, VA, 2000). Commonly used pre-calculus textbooks provide a wide range of application problems. However, these problems focus students' attention on evaluating or solving pre-arranged formulas for given values. The role of scientific content is reduced to provide a background for these problems instead of being sources of data gathering for inducing mathematical tools. Students are neither required to construct mathematical models based on the contexts nor are they asked to validate or discuss the limitations of applied formulas. Using these contexts, the instructor may think that he/she is teaching problem solving, where in reality he/she is teaching algorithms of the mathematical operations (G. Kulm (ed.), New directions for mathematics assessment, in Assessing Higher Order Thinking in Mathematics, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1994, pp. 221-240). Without a thorough representation of the physical phenomena and the mathematical modelling processes undertaken, problem solving unintentionally appears as simple algorithmic operations. In this article, we deconstruct the representations of mathematics problems from selected pre-calculus textbooks and explicate their limitations. We argue that the structure and content of those problems limits students' coherent understanding of mathematical modelling, and this could result in weak student problem-solving skills. Simultaneously, we explore the ways to enhance representations of those mathematical problems, which we have characterized as lacking a meaningful physical context and limiting coherent student understanding. In light of our discussion, we recommend an alternative to strengthen the process of teaching mathematical modelling - utilization of computer-based science simulations. Although there are several exceptional computer-based science simulations designed for mathematics classes (see, e.g. Kinetic Book (http://www.kineticbooks.com/) or Gizmos (http://www.explorelearning.com/)), we concentrate mainly on the PhET Interactive Simulations developed at the University of Colorado at Boulder (http://phet.colorado.edu/) in generating our argument that computer simulations more accurately represent the contextual characteristics of scientific phenomena than their textual descriptions.

Learning planar Ising models

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Jason K.; Oyen, Diane Adele; Chertkov, Michael; ...

2016-12-01

Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of random variables within some tractable family of graphical models. In this paper, we focus on the class of planar Ising models, for which exact inference is tractable using techniques of statistical physics. Based on these techniques and recent methods for planarity testing and planar embedding, we propose a greedy algorithm for learning the bestmore » planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. Finally, we demonstrate our method in simulations and for two applications: modeling senate voting records and identifying geo-chemical depth trends from Mars rover data.« less

Learning planar Ising models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jason K.; Oyen, Diane Adele; Chertkov, Michael

Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of random variables within some tractable family of graphical models. In this paper, we focus on the class of planar Ising models, for which exact inference is tractable using techniques of statistical physics. Based on these techniques and recent methods for planarity testing and planar embedding, we propose a greedy algorithm for learning the bestmore » planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. Finally, we demonstrate our method in simulations and for two applications: modeling senate voting records and identifying geo-chemical depth trends from Mars rover data.« less

A simple method for finding explicit analytic transition densities of diffusion processes with general diploid selection.

PubMed

Song, Yun S; Steinrücken, Matthias

2012-03-01

The transition density function of the Wright-Fisher diffusion describes the evolution of population-wide allele frequencies over time. This function has important practical applications in population genetics, but finding an explicit formula under a general diploid selection model has remained a difficult open problem. In this article, we develop a new computational method to tackle this classic problem. Specifically, our method explicitly finds the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the diffusion generator associated with the Wright-Fisher diffusion with recurrent mutation and arbitrary diploid selection, thus allowing one to obtain an accurate spectral representation of the transition density function. Simplicity is one of the appealing features of our approach. Although our derivation involves somewhat advanced mathematical concepts, the resulting algorithm is quite simple and efficient, only involving standard linear algebra. Furthermore, unlike previous approaches based on perturbation, which is applicable only when the population-scaled selection coefficient is small, our method is nonperturbative and is valid for a broad range of parameter values. As a by-product of our work, we obtain the rate of convergence to the stationary distribution under mutation-selection balance.

A Simple Method for Finding Explicit Analytic Transition Densities of Diffusion Processes with General Diploid Selection

PubMed Central

Song, Yun S.; Steinrücken, Matthias

2012-01-01

The transition density function of the Wright–Fisher diffusion describes the evolution of population-wide allele frequencies over time. This function has important practical applications in population genetics, but finding an explicit formula under a general diploid selection model has remained a difficult open problem. In this article, we develop a new computational method to tackle this classic problem. Specifically, our method explicitly finds the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the diffusion generator associated with the Wright–Fisher diffusion with recurrent mutation and arbitrary diploid selection, thus allowing one to obtain an accurate spectral representation of the transition density function. Simplicity is one of the appealing features of our approach. Although our derivation involves somewhat advanced mathematical concepts, the resulting algorithm is quite simple and efficient, only involving standard linear algebra. Furthermore, unlike previous approaches based on perturbation, which is applicable only when the population-scaled selection coefficient is small, our method is nonperturbative and is valid for a broad range of parameter values. As a by-product of our work, we obtain the rate of convergence to the stationary distribution under mutation–selection balance. PMID:22209899

Competitive seeds-selection in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jiuhua; Liu, Qipeng; Wang, Lin; Wang, Xiaofan

2017-02-01

This paper investigates a competitive diffusion model where two competitors simultaneously select a set of nodes (seeds) in the network to influence. We focus on the problem of how to select these seeds such that, when the diffusion process terminates, a competitor can obtain more supports than its opponent. Instead of studying this problem in the game-theoretic framework as in the existing work, in this paper we design several heuristic seed-selection strategies inspired by commonly used centrality measures-Betweenness Centrality (BC), Closeness Centrality (CC), Degree Centrality (DC), Eigenvector Centrality (EC), and K-shell Centrality (KS). We mainly compare three centrality-based strategies, which have better performances in competing with the random selection strategy, through simulations on both real and artificial networks. Even though network structure varies across different networks, we find certain common trend appearing in all of these networks. Roughly speaking, BC-based strategy and DC-based strategy are better than CC-based strategy. Moreover, if a competitor adopts CC-based strategy, then BC-based strategy is a better strategy than DC-based strategy for his opponent, and the superiority of BC-based strategy decreases as the heterogeneity of the network decreases.

A Gaussian Mixture Model-based continuous Boundary Detection for 3D sensor networks.

PubMed

Chen, Jiehui; Salim, Mariam B; Matsumoto, Mitsuji

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a high precision Gaussian Mixture Model-based novel Boundary Detection 3D (BD3D) scheme with reasonable implementation cost for 3D cases by selecting a minimum number of Boundary sensor Nodes (BNs) in continuous moving objects. It shows apparent advantages in that two classes of boundary and non-boundary sensor nodes can be efficiently classified using the model selection techniques for finite mixture models; furthermore, the set of sensor readings within each sensor node's spatial neighbors is formulated using a Gaussian Mixture Model; different from DECOMO [1] and COBOM [2], we also formatted a BN Array with an additional own sensor reading to benefit selecting Event BNs (EBNs) and non-EBNs from the observations of BNs. In particular, we propose a Thick Section Model (TSM) to solve the problem of transition between 2D and 3D. It is verified by simulations that the BD3D 2D model outperforms DECOMO and COBOM in terms of average residual energy and the number of BNs selected, while the BD3D 3D model demonstrates sound performance even for sensor networks with low densities especially when the value of the sensor transmission range (r) is larger than the value of Section Thickness (d) in TSM. We have also rigorously proved its correctness for continuous geometric domains and full robustness for sensor networks over 3D terrains.

The effect of community stress and problems on psychopathology: A structural equation modeling study.

PubMed

Lyu, Juncheng; Shi, Hong; Wang, Suzhen; Zhang, Jie

2016-02-01

This research aimed to estimate the effect of perceived social factors in the community stress and problems on the residents' psychopathology such as depression and suicidal behaviors. Subjects of this study were the informants (N=1618) in a psychological autopsy (PA) study with a case-control design. We interviewed two informants (a family member and a close friend) for 392 suicides and 416 living controls, which came from 16 rural counties randomly selected from three provinces of China. Community stress and problems were measured by the WHO SUPRE-MISS scale. Depression was measured by CES-D scale, and suicidal behavior was assessed by NCS-R scale. Multivariable liner and logistic regression models and the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were applied to probe the correlation of the depression and the suicidal behaviors with some major demographic variables as covariates. It was found that community stress and problems were directly associated with rural Chinese residents' depression (Path coefficient=0.127, P<0.001). There was no direct correlation between community stress and problem and suicidal behaviors, but community stress and problem can affect suicidal behaviors indirectly through depression. The path coefficient between depression and suicidal behaviors was 0.975. The current study predicts a new research viewpoint, that is, the depression is the intermediate between community stress and problem and suicidal behaviors. It might be an effective route to prevent depression directly and suicidal behaviors indirectly by reducing the community stress and problems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A method for tailoring the information content of a software process model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkins, Sharon; Arend, Mark B.

1990-01-01

The framework is defined for a general method for selecting a necessary and sufficient subset of a general software life cycle's information products, to support new software development process. Procedures for characterizing problem domains in general and mapping to a tailored set of life cycle processes and products is presented. An overview of the method is shown using the following steps: (1) During the problem concept definition phase, perform standardized interviews and dialogs between developer and user, and between user and customer; (2) Generate a quality needs profile of the software to be developed, based on information gathered in step 1; (3) Translate the quality needs profile into a profile of quality criteria that must be met by the software to satisfy the quality needs; (4) Map the quality criteria to set of accepted processes and products for achieving each criterion; (5) Select the information products which match or support the accepted processes and product of step 4; and (6) Select the design methodology which produces the information products selected in step 5.

A method for tailoring the information content of a software process model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkins, Sharon; Arend, Mark B.

1990-01-01

The framework is defined for a general method for selecting a necessary and sufficient subset of a general software life cycle's information products, to support new software development process. Procedures for characterizing problem domains in general and mapping to a tailored set of life cycle processes and products is presented. An overview of the method is shown using the following steps: (1) During the problem concept definition phase, perform standardized interviews and dialogs between developer and user, and between user and customer; (2) Generate a quality needs profile of the software to be developed, based on information gathered in step 1; (3) Translate the quality needs profile into a profile of quality criteria that must be met by the software to satisfy the quality needs; (4) Map the quality criteria to a set of accepted processes and products for achieving each criterion; (5) select the information products which match or support the accepted processes and product of step 4; and (6) Select the design methodology which produces the information products selected in step 5.

A guide to multi-objective optimization for ecological problems with an application to cackling goose management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Kendall, William L.

2017-01-01

Choices in ecological research and management are the result of balancing multiple, often competing, objectives. Multi-objective optimization (MOO) is a formal decision-theoretic framework for solving multiple objective problems. MOO is used extensively in other fields including engineering, economics, and operations research. However, its application for solving ecological problems has been sparse, perhaps due to a lack of widespread understanding. Thus, our objective was to provide an accessible primer on MOO, including a review of methods common in other fields, a review of their application in ecology, and a demonstration to an applied resource management problem.A large class of methods for solving MOO problems can be separated into two strategies: modelling preferences pre-optimization (the a priori strategy), or modelling preferences post-optimization (the a posteriori strategy). The a priori strategy requires describing preferences among objectives without knowledge of how preferences affect the resulting decision. In the a posteriori strategy, the decision maker simultaneously considers a set of solutions (the Pareto optimal set) and makes a choice based on the trade-offs observed in the set. We describe several methods for modelling preferences pre-optimization, including: the bounded objective function method, the lexicographic method, and the weighted-sum method. We discuss modelling preferences post-optimization through examination of the Pareto optimal set. We applied each MOO strategy to the natural resource management problem of selecting a population target for cackling goose (Branta hutchinsii minima) abundance. Cackling geese provide food security to Native Alaskan subsistence hunters in the goose's nesting area, but depredate crops on private agricultural fields in wintering areas. We developed objective functions to represent the competing objectives related to the cackling goose population target and identified an optimal solution first using the a priori strategy, and then by examining trade-offs in the Pareto set using the a posteriori strategy. We used four approaches for selecting a final solution within the a posteriori strategy; the most common optimal solution, the most robust optimal solution, and two solutions based on maximizing a restricted portion of the Pareto set. We discuss MOO with respect to natural resource management, but MOO is sufficiently general to cover any ecological problem that contains multiple competing objectives that can be quantified using objective functions.

Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

2018-07-01

Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

Factors associated with acceptance of peers with mental health problems in childhood and adolescence.

PubMed

Swords, Lorraine; Heary, Caroline; Hennessy, Eilis

2011-09-01

Research suggests that children's reactions to peers with mental health problems are related to the maintenance and outcomes of these problems. However, children's perceptions of such peers, particularly those with internalising problems, are neither well researched nor understood. The present study aimed to test a series of models relating socio-demographic and attributional variables to the acceptance of hypothetical boys and girls with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and depression. A sample of 595 participants, drawn from five different age-groups spanning early childhood to late adolescence, completed a booklet of questions in response to two vignettes describing the behaviour of hypothetical target peers with depression and ADHD. The sample was drawn from schools randomly selected in the east of Ireland. The models indicated that age and gender of the participant, and the perceived responsibility of the target character for his/her condition, were the three most important predictors of acceptance in all models. However, the relationship between these variables and acceptance varied depending on the gender of the target child and the condition (depression or ADHD) in the models tested. The findings of the study suggest that the relationships between socio-demographic and attributional variables and acceptance of peers with mental health problems depend on the type of mental health problem under consideration. The findings have implications for the development of information and education programmes to improve the integration of children with mental health problems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Self-tuning regulators for multicyclic control of helicopter vibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W.

1982-01-01

A class of algorithms for the multicyclic control of helicopter vibration and loads is derived and discussed. This class is characterized by a linear, quasi-static, frequency-domain model of the helicopter response to control; identification of the helicopter model by least-squared-error or Kalman filter methods; and a minimum variance or quadratic performance function controller. Previous research on such controllers is reviewed. The derivations and discussions cover the helicopter model; the identification problem, including both off-line and on-line (recursive) algorithms; the control problem, including both open-loop and closed-loop feedback; and the various regulator configurations possible within this class. Conclusions from analysis and numerical simulations of the regulators provide guidance in the design and selection of algorithms for further development, including wind tunnel and flight tests.

Accounting for animal movement in estimation of resource selection functions: sampling and data analysis.

PubMed

Forester, James D; Im, Hae Kyung; Rathouz, Paul J

2009-12-01

Patterns of resource selection by animal populations emerge as a result of the behavior of many individuals. Statistical models that describe these population-level patterns of habitat use can miss important interactions between individual animals and characteristics of their local environment; however, identifying these interactions is difficult. One approach to this problem is to incorporate models of individual movement into resource selection models. To do this, we propose a model for step selection functions (SSF) that is composed of a resource-independent movement kernel and a resource selection function (RSF). We show that standard case-control logistic regression may be used to fit the SSF; however, the sampling scheme used to generate control points (i.e., the definition of availability) must be accommodated. We used three sampling schemes to analyze simulated movement data and found that ignoring sampling and the resource-independent movement kernel yielded biased estimates of selection. The level of bias depended on the method used to generate control locations, the strength of selection, and the spatial scale of the resource map. Using empirical or parametric methods to sample control locations produced biased estimates under stronger selection; however, we show that the addition of a distance function to the analysis substantially reduced that bias. Assuming a uniform availability within a fixed buffer yielded strongly biased selection estimates that could be corrected by including the distance function but remained inefficient relative to the empirical and parametric sampling methods. As a case study, we used location data collected from elk in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to show that selection and bias may be temporally variable. Because under constant selection the amount of bias depends on the scale at which a resource is distributed in the landscape, we suggest that distance always be included as a covariate in SSF analyses. This approach to modeling resource selection is easily implemented using common statistical tools and promises to provide deeper insight into the movement ecology of animals.

Algorithms for the Fractional Calculus: A Selection of Numerical Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diethelm, K.; Ford, N. J.; Freed, A. D.; Luchko, Yu.

2003-01-01

Many recently developed models in areas like viscoelasticity, electrochemistry, diffusion processes, etc. are formulated in terms of derivatives (and integrals) of fractional (non-integer) order. In this paper we present a collection of numerical algorithms for the solution of the various problems arising in this context. We believe that this will give the engineer the necessary tools required to work with fractional models in an efficient way.

Development of Ku-band rendezvous radar tracking and acquisition simulation programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The fidelity of the Space Shuttle Radar tracking simulation model was improved. The data from the Shuttle Orbiter Radar Test and Evaluation (SORTE) program experiments performed at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) were reviewed and analyzed. The selected flight rendezvous radar data was evaluated. Problems with the Inertial Line-of-Sight (ILOS) angle rate tracker were evaluated using the improved fidelity angle rate tracker simulation model.

Model Selection for Solving Kinematic Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

Bundy78] A. Bundy. Will it Reach the Top? Prediction in the Mechanics World. Aritificial Intelligence , 10:111-122, 1978. [Bundy,Luger,Mellish&Pamer78] A...ELEMENT. PfOJECT. TASK Artificial Intelligence Laboratory AREA 4 WORK UNIT NUMBERS 545 Technology Square Cambridge, MA 02139 It. CONTROLLiNG OFFICE...tificial Intelligence community, particularly in its application to diagnosis and trou- bleshooting. The core issue in this thesis, simply put, is, model

A New TS Algorithm for Solving Low-Carbon Logistics Vehicle Routing Problem with Split Deliveries by Backpack—From a Green Operation Perspective

PubMed Central

Fu, Zhuo; Wang, Jiangtao

2018-01-01

In order to promote the development of low-carbon logistics and economize logistics distribution costs, the vehicle routing problem with split deliveries by backpack is studied. With the help of the model of classical capacitated vehicle routing problem, in this study, a form of discrete split deliveries was designed in which the customer demand can be split only by backpack. A double-objective mathematical model and the corresponding adaptive tabu search (TS) algorithm were constructed for solving this problem. By embedding the adaptive penalty mechanism, and adopting the random neighborhood selection strategy and reinitialization principle, the global optimization ability of the new algorithm was enhanced. Comparisons with the results in the literature show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method can save the costs of low-carbon logistics and reduce carbon emissions, which is conducive to the sustainable development of low-carbon logistics. PMID:29747469

Predictive analysis and data mining among the employment of fresh graduate students in HEI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Nor Azziaty Abdul; Tan, Kian Lam; Lim, Chen Kim

2017-10-01

Management of higher education have a problem in producing 100% of graduates who can meet the needs of industry while industry is also facing the problem of finding skilled graduates who suit their needs partly due to the lack of an effective method in assessing problem solving skills as well as weaknesses in the assessment of problem-solving skills. The purpose of this paper is to propose a suitable classification model that can be used in making prediction and assessment of the attributes of the student's dataset to meet the selection criteria of work demanded by the industry of the graduates in the academic field. Supervised and unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms were used in this research where; K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Neural Network, Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine. The proposed model will help the university management to make a better long-term plans for producing graduates who are skilled, knowledgeable and fulfill the industry needs as well.

Social Orientation: Problem Behavior and Motivations Toward Interpersonal Problem Solving Among High Risk Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kuperminc, Gabriel P.; Allen, Joseph P.

2006-01-01

A model of problematic adolescent behavior that expands current theories of social skill deficits in delinquent behavior to consider both social skills and orientation toward the use of adaptive skills was examined in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse sample of 113 male and female adolescents. Adolescents were selected on the basis of moderate to serious risk for difficulties in social adaptation in order to focus on the population of youth most likely to be targeted by prevention efforts. Structural equation modeling was used to examine cross-sectional data using multiple informants (adolescents, peers, and parents) and multiple methods (performance test and self-report). Adolescent social orientation, as reflected in perceived problem solving effectiveness, identification with adult prosocial values, and self-efficacy expectations, exhibited a direct association to delinquent behavior and an indirect association to drug involvement mediated by demonstrated success in using problem solving skills. Results suggest that the utility of social skill theories of adolescent problem behaviors for informing preventive and remedial interventions can be enhanced by expanding them to consider adolescents’ orientation toward using the skills they may already possess. PMID:16929380

An Adaptive Pheromone Updation of the Ant-System using LMS Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Abhishek; Mukhopadhyay, Sumitra

2010-10-01

We propose a modified model of pheromone updation for Ant-System, entitled as Adaptive Ant System (AAS), using the properties of basic Adaptive Filters. Here, we have exploited the properties of Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm for the pheromone updation to find out the best minimum tour for the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). TSP library has been used for the selection of benchmark problem and the proposed AAS determines the minimum tour length for the problems containing large number of cities. Our algorithm shows effective results and gives least tour length in most of the cases as compared to other existing approaches.

Honey Bee Location- and Time-Linked Memory Use in Novel Foraging Situations: Floral Color Dependency

PubMed Central

Amaya-Márquez, Marisol; Hill, Peggy S. M.; Abramson, Charles I.; Wells, Harrington

2014-01-01

Learning facilitates behavioral plasticity, leading to higher success rates when foraging. However, memory is of decreasing value with changes brought about by moving to novel resource locations or activity at different times of the day. These premises suggest a foraging model with location- and time-linked memory. Thus, each problem is novel, and selection should favor a maximum likelihood approach to achieve energy maximization results. Alternatively, information is potentially always applicable. This premise suggests a different foraging model, one where initial decisions should be based on previous learning regardless of the foraging site or time. Under this second model, no problem is considered novel, and selection should favor a Bayesian or pseudo-Bayesian approach to achieve energy maximization results. We tested these two models by offering honey bees a learning situation at one location in the morning, where nectar rewards differed between flower colors, and examined their behavior at a second location in the afternoon where rewards did not differ between flower colors. Both blue-yellow and blue-white dimorphic flower patches were used. Information learned in the morning was clearly used in the afternoon at a new foraging site. Memory was not location-time restricted in terms of use when visiting either flower color dimorphism. PMID:26462587

Numerical Investigation of Radiative Heat Transfer in Laser Induced Air Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Wang, T. S.; Turner, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Radiative heat transfer is one of the most important phenomena in the laser induced plasmas. This study is intended to develop accurate and efficient methods for predicting laser radiation absorption and plasma radiative heat transfer, and investigate the plasma radiation effects in laser propelled vehicles. To model laser radiation absorption, a ray tracing method along with the Beer's law is adopted. To solve the radiative transfer equation in the air plasmas, the discrete transfer method (DTM) is selected and explained. The air plasma radiative properties are predicted by the LORAN code. To validate the present nonequilibrium radiation model, several benchmark problems are examined and the present results are found to match the available solutions. To investigate the effects of plasma radiation in laser propelled vehicles, the present radiation code is coupled into a plasma aerodynamics code and a selected problem is considered. Comparisons of results at different cases show that plasma radiation plays a role of cooling plasma and it lowers the plasma temperature by about 10%. This change in temperature also results in a reduction of the coupling coefficient by about 10-20%. The present study indicates that plasma radiation modeling is very important for accurate modeling of aerodynamics in a laser propelled vehicle.

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bascetin, A.

2007-04-01

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.