Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

2017-05-01

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

Lytic to temperate switching of viral communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, B.; Silveira, C. B.; Bailey, B. A.; Barott, K.; Cantu, V. A.; Cobián-Güemes, A. G.; Coutinho, F. H.; Dinsdale, E. A.; Felts, B.; Furby, K. A.; George, E. E.; Green, K. T.; Gregoracci, G. B.; Haas, A. F.; Haggerty, J. M.; Hester, E. R.; Hisakawa, N.; Kelly, L. W.; Lim, Y. W.; Little, M.; Luque, A.; McDole-Somera, T.; McNair, K.; de Oliveira, L. S.; Quistad, S. D.; Robinett, N. L.; Sala, E.; Salamon, P.; Sanchez, S. E.; Sandin, S.; Silva, G. G. Z.; Smith, J.; Sullivan, C.; Thompson, C.; Vermeij, M. J. A.; Youle, M.; Young, C.; Zgliczynski, B.; Brainard, R.; Edwards, R. A.; Nulton, J.; Thompson, F.; Rohwer, F.

2016-03-01

Microbial viruses can control host abundances via density-dependent lytic predator-prey dynamics. Less clear is how temperate viruses, which coexist and replicate with their host, influence microbial communities. Here we show that virus-like particles are relatively less abundant at high host densities. This suggests suppressed lysis where established models predict lytic dynamics are favoured. Meta-analysis of published viral and microbial densities showed that this trend was widespread in diverse ecosystems ranging from soil to freshwater to human lungs. Experimental manipulations showed viral densities more consistent with temperate than lytic life cycles at increasing microbial abundance. An analysis of 24 coral reef viromes showed a relative increase in the abundance of hallmark genes encoded by temperate viruses with increased microbial abundance. Based on these four lines of evidence, we propose the Piggyback-the-Winner model wherein temperate dynamics become increasingly important in ecosystems with high microbial densities; thus ‘more microbes, fewer viruses’.

Fiber type-specific afferent nerve activity induced by transient contractions of rat bladder smooth muscle in pathological states

PubMed Central

Kuga, Nahoko; Tanioka, Asao; Hagihara, Koichiro; Kawai, Tomoyuki

2017-01-01

Bladder smooth muscle shows spontaneous phasic contractions, which undergo a variety of abnormal changes depending on pathological conditions. How abnormal contractions affect the activity of bladder afferent nerves remains to be fully tested. In this study, we examined the relationship between transient increases in bladder pressure, representing transient contraction of bladder smooth muscle, and spiking patterns of bladder afferent fibers of the L6 dorsal root, in rat pathological models. All recordings were performed at a bladder pressure of approximately 10 cmH2O by maintaining the degree of bladder filling. In the cyclophosphamide-induced model, both Aδ and C fibers showed increased sensitivity to transient bladder pressure increases. In the prostaglandin E2-induced model, Aδ fibers, but not C fibers, specifically showed overexcitation that was time-locked with transient bladder pressure increases. These fiber type-specific changes in nerve spike patterns may underlie the symptoms of urinary bladder diseases. PMID:29267380

Adding a Parameter Increases the Variance of an Estimated Regression Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Withers, Christopher S.; Nadarajah, Saralees

2011-01-01

The linear regression model is one of the most popular models in statistics. It is also one of the simplest models in statistics. It has received applications in almost every area of science, engineering and medicine. In this article, the authors show that adding a predictor to a linear model increases the variance of the estimated regression…

Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sufian, M.A.; Bala, B.K.

2007-07-01

This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and to assess the needs for waste management of the urban city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated results show that solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste increase with time. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are projected to increase with time for Dhaka city. Simulated results also show that increasing the budget for collection capacity alone does not improve environmental quality; rather an increased budget is required for both collectionmore » and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka city. Finally, this model can be used as a computer laboratory for urban solid waste management (USWM) policy analysis.« less

SEIIrR: Drug abuse model with rehabilitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanto, Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-05-01

Drug abuse in the world quite astonish and tend to increase. The increase and decrease on the number of drug abusers showed a pattern of spread that had the same characteristics with patterns of spread of infectious disease. The susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) epidemic models for infectious disease was developed to study social epidemic. In this paper, SEIR model for disease epidemic was developed to study drug abuse epidemic with rehabilitation treatment. The aims of this paper were to analogize susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIrR) model on the drug abusers, to determine solutions of the model, to determine equilibrium point, and to do simulation on β. The solutions of SEIIrR model was determined by using fourth order of Runge-Kutta algorithm, equilibrium point obtained was free-drug equilibrium point. Solutions of SEIIrR showed that the model was able to suppress the spread of drug abuse. The increasing value of contact rate was not affect the number of infected individuals due to rehabilitation treatment.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century.

PubMed

Dessler, A E; Ye, H; Wang, T; Schoeberl, M R; Oman, L D; Douglass, A R; Butler, A H; Rosenlof, K H; Davis, S M; Portmann, R W

2016-03-16

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Dessler, A.E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M.R.; Oman, L.D.; Douglass, A.R.; Butler, A.H.; Rosenlof, K.H.; Davis, S.M.; Portmann, R.W.

2018-01-01

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50–80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales — on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community. PMID:29551841

Transport of Ice into the Stratosphere and the Humidification of the Stratosphere over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dessler, A. E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Butler, A. H.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Davis, S. M.; Portmann, R. W.

2016-01-01

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by approx. 1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R.

2017-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Adding small differences can increase similarity and choice.

PubMed

Kim, Jongmin; Novemsky, Nathan; Dhar, Ravi

2013-02-01

Similarity plays a critical role in many judgments and choices. Traditional models of similarity posit that increasing the number of differences between objects cannot increase judged similarity between them. In contrast to these previous models, the present research shows that introducing a small difference in an attribute that previously was identical across objects can increase perceived similarity between those objects. We propose an explanation based on the idea that small differences draw more attention than identical attributes do and that people's perceptions of similarity involve averaging attributes that are salient. We provide evidence that introducing small differences between objects increases perceived similarity. We also show that an increase in similarity decreases the difficulty of choice and the likelihood that a choice will be deferred.

The Society-Deciders Model and Fairness in Nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flomenbom, Ophir

2015-05-01

Modeling the dynamics in nations from economical and sociological perspectives is a central theme in economics and sociology. Accurate models can predict and therefore help all the world's citizens. Yet, recent years have show that the current models are missing. Here, we develop a dynamical society-deciders model that can explain the stability in a nation, based on concepts from dynamics, ecology and socio-econo-physics; a nation has two groups that interconnect, the deciders and the society. We show that a nation is either stable or it collapses. This depends on just two coefficients that we relate with sociological and economical indicators. We define a new socio-economic indicator, fairness. Fairness can measure the stability in a nation and how probable a change favoring the society is. We compute fairness among all the world's nations. Interestingly, in comparison with other indicators, fairness shows that the USA loses its rank among Western democracies, India is the best among the 15 most populated nations, and Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have significantly improved their rankings as a result of recent revolutions, further increasing the probability of additional positive changes. Within the model, long lasting crises are solved rather than with increasing governmental spending or cuts with regulations that reduce the stability of the deciders, namely, increasing fairness, while, for example, shifting wealth in the direction of the people, and therefore increasing further opportunities.

Modelling climate change impact: A case of bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Chibarabada, Tendai Polite; Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova; Modi, Albert Thembinkosi

2018-06-01

Climate change projections for southern Africa indicate low and erratic rainfall as well as increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes such as drought. The 2015/16 drought devastated large parts of southern Africa and highlighted the need for drought tolerant crops. Bambara groundnut is an African indigenous crop, commonly cultivated in southern Africa, with a higher potential for drought tolerance compared to other staple legumes. AquaCrop model was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yield, water use (ET) and water productivity (WP) of bambara groundnut using climate change data representative of the past (1961-1991), present (1995-2025), mid-century (2030-2060) and late century (2065-2095) obtained from five global circulation models (GCMs). The carbon dioxide (CO2) file selected was for the A2 scenario. The model was run at a sub-catchment level. Model simulations showed that yield and WP of bambara groundnut will increase over time. The mean values of yield at the different time scales across the GCMs showed that yield of bambara groundnut increased by ∼9% from the past to the present, will increase by ∼15% from the present to mid-century and will increase by 6% from mid-to late-century. The simulated results of ET showed seasonal ranges of 703-796 mm. Of this, 45% was lost to soil evaporation, suggesting the need for developing bambara groundnut varieties with faster establishment and high canopy cover. Model simulations showed an increase in WP by ∼13% from the past to present and ∼15% from the present to mid-century and ∼11% from mid-century to late century. While the results of these simulations are preliminary, they confirm the view that bambara groundnut is a potential future crop suitable for cultivation in marginal agricultural production areas. Future research should focus on crop improvement to improve current yield of bambara groundnut.

Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagné, Marie-Ève; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Flato, Gregory M.

2017-07-01

Updated observational data sets without climatological infilling show that there was an increase in sea ice concentration in the eastern Arctic between 1950 and 1975, contrary to earlier climatology infilled observational data sets that show weak interannual variations during that time period. We here present climate model simulations showing that this observed sea ice concentration increase was primarily a consequence of cooling induced by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcing. Indeed, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked around 1980 causing a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between the 1950s and 1970s; but since 1980, the burden has dropped. Our climate model simulations show that the cooling contribution of aerosols offset the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases over the midtwentieth century resulting in the expansion of the Arctic sea ice cover. These results challenge the perception that Arctic sea ice extent was unperturbed by human influence until the 1970s, suggesting instead that it exhibited earlier forced multidecadal variations, with implications for our understanding of impacts and adaptation in human and natural Arctic systems.

Variable camber wing based on pneumatic artificial muscles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Weilong; Liu, Libo; Chen, Yijin; Leng, Jinsong

2009-07-01

As a novel bionic actuator, pneumatic artificial muscle has high power to weight ratio. In this paper, a variable camber wing with the pneumatic artificial muscle is developed. Firstly, the experimental setup to measure the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle is designed. The relationship between the static output force and the air pressure is investigated. Experimental result shows the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle decreases nonlinearly with increasing contraction ratio. Secondly, the finite element model of the variable camber wing is developed. Numerical results show that the tip displacement of the trailing-edge increases linearly with increasing external load and limited with the maximum static output force of pneumatic artificial muscles. Finally, the variable camber wing model is manufactured to validate the variable camber concept. Experimental result shows that the wing camber increases with increasing air pressure and that it compare very well with the FEM result.

Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

2012-03-01

Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

Fluctuating Selection in the Moran

PubMed Central

Dean, Antony M.; Lehman, Clarence; Yi, Xiao

2017-01-01

Contrary to classical population genetics theory, experiments demonstrate that fluctuating selection can protect a haploid polymorphism in the absence of frequency dependent effects on fitness. Using forward simulations with the Moran model, we confirm our analytical results showing that a fluctuating selection regime, with a mean selection coefficient of zero, promotes polymorphism. We find that increases in heterozygosity over neutral expectations are especially pronounced when fluctuations are rapid, mutation is weak, the population size is large, and the variance in selection is big. Lowering the frequency of fluctuations makes selection more directional, and so heterozygosity declines. We also show that fluctuating selection raises dn/ds ratios for polymorphism, not only by sweeping selected alleles into the population, but also by purging the neutral variants of selected alleles as they undergo repeated bottlenecks. Our analysis shows that randomly fluctuating selection increases the rate of evolution by increasing the probability of fixation. The impact is especially noticeable when the selection is strong and mutation is weak. Simulations show the increase in the rate of evolution declines as the rate of new mutations entering the population increases, an effect attributable to clonal interference. Intriguingly, fluctuating selection increases the dn/ds ratios for divergence more than for polymorphism, a pattern commonly seen in comparative genomics. Our model, which extends the classical neutral model of molecular evolution by incorporating random fluctuations in selection, accommodates a wide variety of observations, both neutral and selected, with economy. PMID:28108586

A theoretical analysis of the effect of thrust-related turbulence distortion on helicopter rotor low-frequency broadband noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, M.; Harris, W. L.

1984-01-01

The purpose of the analysis is to determine if inflow turbulence distortion may be a cause of experimentally observed changes in sound pressure levels when the rotor mean loading is varied. The effect of helicopter rotor mean aerodynamics on inflow turbulence is studied within the framework of the turbulence rapid distortion theory developed by Pearson (1959) and Deissler (1961). The distorted inflow turbulence is related to the resultant noise by conventional broadband noise theory. A comparison of the distortion model with experimental data shows that the theoretical model is unable to totally explain observed increases in model rotor sound pressures with increased rotor mean thrust. Comparison of full scale rotor data with the theoretical model shows that a shear-type distortion may explain decreasing sound pressure levels with increasing thrust.

Using Video Modeling to Increase Variation in the Conversation of Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlop, Marjorie H.; Gilmore, Laura; Chang, Gina T.

2009-01-01

The present study assessed the effects of video modeling on acquisition and generalization of variation in the conversational speech of two boys with autism. A video was made showing several versions of several topics of conversation, thus providing multiple exemplars of each conversation. Video modeling consisted of showing each child a video…

Performance of European chemistry transport models as function of horizontal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaap, M.; Cuvelier, C.; Hendriks, C.; Bessagnet, B.; Baldasano, J. M.; Colette, A.; Thunis, P.; Karam, D.; Fagerli, H.; Graff, A.; Kranenburg, R.; Nyiri, A.; Pay, M. T.; Rouïl, L.; Schulz, M.; Simpson, D.; Stern, R.; Terrenoire, E.; Wind, P.

2015-07-01

Air pollution causes adverse effects on human health as well as ecosystems and crop yield and also has an impact on climate change trough short-lived climate forcers. To design mitigation strategies for air pollution, 3D Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) have been developed to support the decision process. Increases in model resolution may provide more accurate and detailed information, but will cubically increase computational costs and pose additional challenges concerning high resolution input data. The motivation for the present study was therefore to explore the impact of using finer horizontal grid resolution for policy support applications of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model within the Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) convention. The goal was to determine the "optimum resolution" at which additional computational efforts do not provide increased model performance using presently available input data. Five regional CTMs performed four runs for 2009 over Europe at different horizontal resolutions. The models' responses to an increase in resolution are broadly consistent for all models. The largest response was found for NO2 followed by PM10 and O3. Model resolution does not impact model performance for rural background conditions. However, increasing model resolution improves the model performance at stations in and near large conglomerations. The statistical evaluation showed that the increased resolution better reproduces the spatial gradients in pollution regimes, but does not help to improve significantly the model performance for reproducing observed temporal variability. This study clearly shows that increasing model resolution is advantageous, and that leaving a resolution of 50 km in favour of a resolution between 10 and 20 km is practical and worthwhile. As about 70% of the model response to grid resolution is determined by the difference in the spatial emission distribution, improved emission allocation procedures at high spatial and temporal resolution are a crucial factor for further model resolution improvements.

Increased light-use efficiency in northern terrestrial ecosystems indicated by CO 2 and greening observations

DOE PAGES

Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

2016-11-04

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO 2 (ASC) north of 45°N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5 - 15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980s. However, the causes of these changes remain uncertain. Historical simulations from terrestrial biosphere models in the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project are compared to the ASC and greenness observations, using the TM3 atmospheric transport model to translate surface fluxes into CO 2 concentrations. We find that the modeled change in ASC is too small but themore » mean greening trend is generally captured. Modeled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming, whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO 2. We suggest that increases in ecosystem-scale light use efficiency (LUE) have contributed to the observed ASC increase but are underestimated by current models. We highlight potential mechanisms that could increase modeled LUE.« less

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

PubMed

Gent, Peter R

2016-01-01

Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

Do patients with chronic pain show autonomic arousal when confronted with feared movements? An experimental investigation of the fear-avoidance model.

PubMed

Glombiewski, Julia Anna; Riecke, Jenny; Holzapfel, Sebastian; Rief, Winfried; König, Stephan; Lachnit, Harald; Seifart, Ulf

2015-03-01

The relevance of a phobia-based conceptualization of fear for individuals with chronic pain has been much debated in the literature. This study investigated whether patients with highly fearful chronic low back pain show distinct physiological reaction patterns compared with less fearful patients when anticipating aversive back pain-related movements. We used an idiosyncratic fear induction paradigm and collected 2 different measures of autonomic nervous system activation and muscle tension in the lower back. We identified 2 distinct psychophysiological response patterns. One pattern was characterized by a moderate increase in skin conductance, interbeat interval (IBI) increase, and muscle tension increase in the lower back. This response was interpreted as an attention reaction to a moderately stressful event. The other pattern, found in 58% of the participants, was characterized by a higher skin conductance response, IBI decrease, and muscle tension increase in the lower back. According to Bradley and Lang defense cascade model, this response is typical of a fear reaction. Participants showing the psychophysiological pattern typical of fear also had elevated scores on some self-report measures of components of the fear-avoidance model, relative to participants showing the reaction pattern characteristic of attention. This study is the first to provide psychophysiological evidence for the fear-avoidance model of chronic pain.

Stratospheric Ozone Response in Experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo; Tilmes, Simone; Mancini, Eva; DeLuca, Natalia; DiGenova, Glauco

2013-01-01

Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols is a decrease in stratospheric ozone. Here we show results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry climate models that have simulated stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering as part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Changes in photolysis rates and upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics reduce stratospheric ozone, suppression of the NOx cycle increases stratospheric ozone, and an increase in available surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry modulates reductions in ozone. On average, the models show a factor 20-40 increase of the sulfate aerosol surface area density (SAD) at 50 hPa in the tropics with respect to unperturbed background conditions and a factor 3-10 increase at mid-high latitudes. The net effect for a tropical injection rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year is a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1-2.1 DU in the years 2040-2050 for three models which include heterogeneous chemistry on the sulfate aerosol surfaces. GISS-E2-R, a fully coupled general circulation model, performed simulations with no heterogeneous chemistry and a smaller aerosol size; it showed a decrease in ozone by 9.7 DU. After the year 2050, suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone. Contribution of ozone changes in this experiment to radiative forcing is 0.23 W m-2 in GISS-E2-R and less than 0.1 W m-2 in the other three models. Polar ozone depletion, due to enhanced formation of both sulfate aerosol SAD and polar stratospheric clouds, results in an average 5 percent increase in calculated surface UV-B.

Influence of etching current density on microstructural, optical and electrical properties of porous silicon (PS):n-Si heterostructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M.; Nath, P.; Sarkar, D.

2016-02-01

In this article effect of etching current density (J) on the microstructural, optical and electrical properties of photoelectrochemically prepared heterostructure is reported. Prepared samples are characterized by FESEM, XRD, UV-Visible, Raman and photoluminescence (PL) spectra and current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. FESEM shows presence of mixture of randomly distributed meso- and micro-pores. Porous layer thickness determined by cross section view of SEM is proportional to J. XRD shows crystalline nature but gradually extent of crystallinity decreases with increasing J. Raman spectra show large red-shift and asymmetric broadening with respect to crystalline silicon (c-Si). UV-visible reflectance and PL show blue shift in peaks with increasing J. The I-V characteristics are analyzed by the conventional thermionic emission (TE) model and Cheung's model to estimate the barrier height (φb), ideality factor (n) and series resistance (Rs) for comparison between the two models. The latter model is found to fit better.

Universality of (2+1)-dimensional restricted solid-on-solid models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelling, Jeffrey; Ódor, Géza; Gemming, Sibylle

2016-08-01

Extensive dynamical simulations of restricted solid-on-solid models in D =2 +1 dimensions have been done using parallel multisurface algorithms implemented on graphics cards. Numerical evidence is presented that these models exhibit Kardar-Parisi-Zhang surface growth scaling, irrespective of the step heights N . We show that by increasing N the corrections to scaling increase, thus smaller step-sized models describe better the asymptotic, long-wave-scaling behavior.

A model of electron collecting plasma contractors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, V. A.; Katz, I.; Mandell, M. J.; Parks, D. E.

1989-01-01

A model of plasma contractors is being developed, which can be used to describe electron collection in a laboratory test tank and in the space environment. To validate the model development, laboratory experiments are conducted in which the source plasma is separated from the background plasma by a double layer. Model calculations show that an increase in ionization rate with potential produces a steep rise in collected current with increasing potential.

Electrical wave propagation in an anisotropic model of the left ventricle based on analytical description of cardiac architecture.

PubMed

Pravdin, Sergey F; Dierckx, Hans; Katsnelson, Leonid B; Solovyova, Olga; Markhasin, Vladimir S; Panfilov, Alexander V

2014-01-01

We develop a numerical approach based on our recent analytical model of fiber structure in the left ventricle of the human heart. A special curvilinear coordinate system is proposed to analytically include realistic ventricular shape and myofiber directions. With this anatomical model, electrophysiological simulations can be performed on a rectangular coordinate grid. We apply our method to study the effect of fiber rotation and electrical anisotropy of cardiac tissue (i.e., the ratio of the conductivity coefficients along and across the myocardial fibers) on wave propagation using the ten Tusscher-Panfilov (2006) ionic model for human ventricular cells. We show that fiber rotation increases the speed of cardiac activation and attenuates the effects of anisotropy. Our results show that the fiber rotation in the heart is an important factor underlying cardiac excitation. We also study scroll wave dynamics in our model and show the drift of a scroll wave filament whose velocity depends non-monotonically on the fiber rotation angle; the period of scroll wave rotation decreases with an increase of the fiber rotation angle; an increase in anisotropy may cause the breakup of a scroll wave, similar to the mother rotor mechanism of ventricular fibrillation.

A Wetter Future For California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luptowitz, R.; Allen, R.

2016-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large natural variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project driven by the business-as-usual scenario, and find a robust increase in CA precipitation. This implies CMIP5 model differences are the dominant cause of the large range of future CA precipitation projections. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection, including a southeastward shift of the upper level winds and an increase in storm track activity in the east Pacific, and an increase in CA moisture convergence. We further show that warming of tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures-a robust feature in all models-accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnections, including CESM, tend to yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation. Our results show that California will become wetter in a warmer world.

Calsequestrin mediates changes in spontaneous calcium release profiles.

PubMed

Tania, Nessy; Keener, James P

2010-08-07

Calsequestrin (CSQ) is the primary calcium buffer within the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) of cardiac cells. It has also been identified as a regulator of Ryanodine receptor (RyR) calcium release channels by serving as a SR luminal sensor. When calsequestrin is free and unbound to calcium, it can bind to RyR and desensitize the channel from cytoplasmic calcium activation. In this paper, we study the role of CSQ as a buffer and RyR luminal sensor using a mechanistic model of RyR-CSQ interaction. By using various asymptotic approximations and mean first exit time calculation, we derive a minimal model of a calcium release unit which includes CSQ dependence. Using this model, we then analyze the effect of changing CSQ expression on the calcium release profile and the rate of spontaneous calcium release. We show that because of its buffering capability, increasing CSQ increases the spark duration and size. However, because of luminal sensing effects, increasing CSQ depresses the basal spark rate and increases the critical SR level for calcium release termination. Finally, we show that with increased bulk cytoplasmic calcium concentration, the CRU model exhibits deterministic oscillations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkebein, Thomas E.

The intrusion of gas into oils stored within the SPR has been examined. When oil is stored in domal salts, gases intrude into the stored oil from the surrounding salt. Aspects of the mechanism of gas intrusion have been examined. In all cases, this gas intrusion results in increases in the oil vapor pressure. Data that have been gathered from 1993 to August 2002 are presented to show the resultant increases in bubble-point pressure on a cavern-by-cavern as well as on a stream basis. The measurement techniques are presented with particular emphasis on the TVP 95. Data analysis methods aremore » presented to show the methods required to obtain recombined cavern oil compositions. Gas-oil ratios are also computed from the data and are presented on a cavern-by-cavern and stream basis. The observed increases in bubble-point pressure and gas-oil ratio are further statistically analyzed to allow data interpretation. Emissions plume modeling is used to determine adherence to state air regulations. Gas intrusion is observed to be variable among the sites and within each dome. Gas intrusions at Bryan Mound and Big Hill have resulted in the largest increases in bubble-point pressure for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The streams at Bayou Choctaw and West Hackberry show minimal bubble-point pressure increases. Emissions plume modeling, using the state mandated ISCST code, of oil storage tanks showed that virtually no gas may be released when H2S standards are considered. DOE plans to scavenge H2S to comply with the very tight standards on this gas. With the assumption of scavenging, benzene releases become the next most controlling factor. Model results show that a GOR of 0.6 SCF/BBL may be emissions that are within standards. Employing the benzene gas release standard will significantly improve oil deliverability. New plume modeling using the computational fluid dynamics code, FLUENT, is addressing limitations of the state mandated ISCST model.« less

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Loading Deformation Characteristic Simulation Study of Engineering Vehicle Refurbished Tire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiang, Wang; Xiaojie, Qi; Zhao, Yang; Yunlong, Wang; Guotian, Wang; Degang, Lv

2018-05-01

The paper constructed engineering vehicle refurbished tire computer geometry model, mechanics model, contact model, finite element analysis model, did simulation study on load-deformation property of engineering vehicle refurbished tire by comparing with that of the new and the same type tire, got load-deformation of engineering vehicle refurbished tire under the working condition of static state and ground contact. The analysis result shows that change rules of radial-direction deformation and side-direction deformation of engineering vehicle refurbished tire are close to that of the new tire, radial-direction and side-direction deformation value is a little less than that of the new tire. When air inflation pressure was certain, radial-direction deformation linear rule of engineer vehicle refurbished tire would increase with load adding, however, side-direction deformation showed linear change rule, when air inflation pressure was low; and it would show increase of non-linear change rule, when air inflation pressure was very high.

Impact of Increased Corn Production on Ground Water Quality and Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we use a complex coupled modeling system to assess the impacts of increased corn production on groundwater. In particular, we show how the models provide new information on the drivers of contamination in groundwater, and then relate pollutant concentration change...

Change in frozen soils and its effect on regional hydrology, upper Heihe basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Bing; Yang, Dawen; Qin, Yue; Wang, Yuhan; Li, Hongyi; Zhang, Yanlin; Zhang, Tingjun

2018-02-01

Frozen ground has an important role in regional hydrological cycles and ecosystems, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which is characterized by high elevations and a dry climate. This study modified a distributed, physically based hydrological model and applied it to simulate long-term (1971-2013) changes in frozen ground its the effects on hydrology in the upper Heihe basin, northeastern QTP. The model was validated against data obtained from multiple ground-based observations. Based on model simulations, we analyzed spatio-temporal changes in frozen soils and their effects on hydrology. Our results show that the area with permafrost shrank by 8.8 % (approximately 500 km2), predominantly in areas with elevations between 3500 and 3900 m. The maximum depth of seasonally frozen ground decreased at a rate of approximately 0.032 m decade-1, and the active layer thickness over the permafrost increased by approximately 0.043 m decade-1. Runoff increased significantly during the cold season (November-March) due to an increase in liquid soil moisture caused by rising soil temperatures. Areas in which permafrost changed into seasonally frozen ground at high elevations showed especially large increases in runoff. Annual runoff increased due to increased precipitation, the base flow increased due to changes in frozen soils, and the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly due to increased precipitation and soil warming. The groundwater storage showed an increasing trend, indicating that a reduction in permafrost extent enhanced the groundwater recharge.

Moisture transfer through the membrane of a cross-flow energy recovery ventilator: Measurement and simple data-driven modeling

Treesearch

CR Boardman; Samuel V. Glass

2015-01-01

The moisture transfer effectiveness (or latent effectiveness) of a cross-flow, membrane based energy recovery ventilator is measured and modeled. Analysis of in situ measurements for a full year shows that energy recovery ventilator latent effectiveness increases with increasing average relative humidity and surprisingly increases with decreasing average temperature. A...

Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in the CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fu, Weiwei; Randerson, James T.; Moore, J. Keith

We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2–16% and EP by 7–18%. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative declines in NPP and EP) also show the largest positivemore » biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting overestimation of climate change impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface–ocean warming and freshening, which is accompanied by decreases in surface nutrients, NPP and EP. There is considerable variability across the models in the magnitudes of NPP, EP, surface nutrient concentrations and their perturbations by climate change. The negative response of NPP and EP to increasing stratification reflects primarily a bottom-up control, as upward nutrient flux declines at the global scale. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This pattern is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with reductions in productivity by large phytoplankton as smaller phytoplankton (which export less efficiently) are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, the projections of the NPP response to climate change are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the resulting levels of regenerated production, which vary widely across the models. In conclusion, community structure is represented simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and climate-driven changes in export efficiency.« less

Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in the CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Fu, Weiwei; Randerson, James T.; Moore, J. Keith

2016-09-16

We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2–16% and EP by 7–18%. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative declines in NPP and EP) also show the largest positivemore » biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting overestimation of climate change impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface–ocean warming and freshening, which is accompanied by decreases in surface nutrients, NPP and EP. There is considerable variability across the models in the magnitudes of NPP, EP, surface nutrient concentrations and their perturbations by climate change. The negative response of NPP and EP to increasing stratification reflects primarily a bottom-up control, as upward nutrient flux declines at the global scale. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This pattern is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with reductions in productivity by large phytoplankton as smaller phytoplankton (which export less efficiently) are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, the projections of the NPP response to climate change are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the resulting levels of regenerated production, which vary widely across the models. In conclusion, community structure is represented simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and climate-driven changes in export efficiency.« less

Increased light-use efficiency in northern terrestrial ecosystems indicated by CO 2 and greening observations: INCREASE IN NH LIGHT USE EFFICIENCY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, Rebecca T.; Prentice, Iain Colin; Graven, Heather

2016-11-04

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO2 (ASC) north of 45°N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5–15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980s. However, the causes of these changes remain uncertain. Historical simulations from terrestrial biosphere models in the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project are compared to the ASC and greenness observations, using the TM3 atmospheric transport model to translate surface fluxes into CO2 concentrations. We find that the modeled change in ASC is too small but the mean greening trend ismore » generally captured. Modeled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming, whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO2. We suggest that increases in ecosystem-scale light use efficiency (LUE) have contributed to the observed ASC increase but are underestimated by current models. We highlight potential mechanisms that could increase modeled LUE.« less

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-minmore » compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.« less

Upper limb strength estimation of physically impaired persons using a musculoskeletal model: A sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Carmichael, Marc G; Liu, Dikai

2015-01-01

Sensitivity of upper limb strength calculated from a musculoskeletal model was analyzed, with focus on how the sensitivity is affected when the model is adapted to represent a person with physical impairment. Sensitivity was calculated with respect to four muscle-tendon parameters: muscle peak isometric force, muscle optimal length, muscle pennation, and tendon slack length. Results obtained from a musculoskeletal model of average strength showed highest sensitivity to tendon slack length, followed by muscle optimal length and peak isometric force, which is consistent with existing studies. Muscle pennation angle was relatively insensitive. The analysis was repeated after adapting the musculoskeletal model to represent persons with varying severities of physical impairment. Results showed that utilizing the weakened model significantly increased the sensitivity of the calculated strength at the hand, with parameters previously insensitive becoming highly sensitive. This increased sensitivity presents a significant challenge in applications utilizing musculoskeletal models to represent impaired individuals.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

PubMed Central

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-01-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century. PMID:28681837

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-07-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Modern anti-Semitism and anti-Israeli attitudes.

PubMed

Cohen, Florette; Jussim, Lee; Harber, Kent D; Bhasin, Gautam

2009-08-01

Anti-Semitism is resurgent throughout much of the world. A new theoretical model of anti-Semitism is presented and tested in 3 experiments. The model proposes that mortality salience increases anti-Semitism and that anti-Semitism often manifests as hostility toward Israel. Study 1 showed that mortality salience led to greater levels of anti-Semitism and lowered support for Israel. This effect occurred only in a bogus pipeline condition, indicating that social desirability masks hostility toward Jews and Israel. Study 2 showed that mortality salience caused Israel, but no other country, to perceptually loom large. Study 3 showed that mortality salience increased punitiveness toward Israel's human rights violations more than it increased hostility toward the identical human rights violations committed by Russia or India. Collectively, results suggest that Jews constitute a unique cultural threat to many people's worldviews, that anti-Semitism causes hostility to Israel, and that hostility to Israel may feed back to increase anti-Semitism.

Fluctuating Selection in the Moran.

PubMed

Dean, Antony M; Lehman, Clarence; Yi, Xiao

2017-03-01

Contrary to classical population genetics theory, experiments demonstrate that fluctuating selection can protect a haploid polymorphism in the absence of frequency dependent effects on fitness. Using forward simulations with the Moran model, we confirm our analytical results showing that a fluctuating selection regime, with a mean selection coefficient of zero, promotes polymorphism. We find that increases in heterozygosity over neutral expectations are especially pronounced when fluctuations are rapid, mutation is weak, the population size is large, and the variance in selection is big. Lowering the frequency of fluctuations makes selection more directional, and so heterozygosity declines. We also show that fluctuating selection raises d n / d s ratios for polymorphism, not only by sweeping selected alleles into the population, but also by purging the neutral variants of selected alleles as they undergo repeated bottlenecks. Our analysis shows that randomly fluctuating selection increases the rate of evolution by increasing the probability of fixation. The impact is especially noticeable when the selection is strong and mutation is weak. Simulations show the increase in the rate of evolution declines as the rate of new mutations entering the population increases, an effect attributable to clonal interference. Intriguingly, fluctuating selection increases the d n / d s ratios for divergence more than for polymorphism, a pattern commonly seen in comparative genomics. Our model, which extends the classical neutral model of molecular evolution by incorporating random fluctuations in selection, accommodates a wide variety of observations, both neutral and selected, with economy. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Increased H+ efflux is sufficient to induce dysplasia and necessary for viability with oncogene expression

PubMed Central

Grillo-Hill, Bree K; Choi, Changhoon; Jimenez-Vidal, Maite; Barber, Diane L

2015-01-01

Intracellular pH (pHi) dynamics is increasingly recognized as an important regulator of a range of normal and pathological cell behaviors. Notably, increased pHi is now acknowledged as a conserved characteristic of cancers and in cell models is confirmed to increase proliferation and migration as well as limit apoptosis. However, the significance of increased pHi for cancer in vivo remains unresolved. Using Drosophila melanogaster, we show that increased pHi is sufficient to induce dysplasia in the absence of other transforming cues and potentiates growth and invasion with oncogenic Ras. Using a genetically encoded biosensor we also confirm increased pHi in situ. Moreover, in Drosophila models and clonal human mammary cells we show that limiting H+ efflux with oncogenic Raf or Ras induces acidosis and synthetic lethality. Further, we show lethality in invasive primary tumor cell lines with inhibiting H+ efflux. Synthetic lethality with reduced H+ efflux and activated oncogene expression could be exploited therapeutically to restrain cancer progression while limiting off-target effects. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03270.001 PMID:25793441

An Objective Evaluation of a Behavior Modeling Training Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Herbert H.; Raich, Michael S.

1983-01-01

Evaluated a behavior modeling training program for sales representatives (N=58) in relation to effects on their sales performance. Results showed participants increased their sales by an average of seven percent during the ensuing six-month period, while the control group showed a 3 percent decrease. (JAC)

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.

2013-11-01

ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for analysis of adalimumab administered for Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Kimura, Koji; Yoshida, Atsushi; Takayanagi, Risa; Yamada, Yasuhiko

2018-05-23

Adalimumab (ADA) is used as a therapeutic agent for Crohn's disease (CD). Although that dosage regimen has been established through clinical trial experience, it has not been analyzed theoretically. In the present study, we analyzed of sequential changes of the Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) after repeated administrations of ADA using a pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model. In addition, we analyzed the validity of the dosage regimen, and potential efficacy gained by increasing the dose and reducing the interval of administration. The sequential changes in CDAI values obtained with our model were in good agreement with observed CDAI values, which was considered to show the validity of our analysis. We considered that our results showed the importance of the loading dose of ADA to obtain remission in an early stage of active CD. In addition, we showed that patients who have an incomplete response to ADA can obtain similar efficacy from increasing the dose and reducing the dose interval. In conclusion, our results showed that the present model may be applied to predict the CDAI values of ADA for CD. They indicated the validity of the dosage regimen, as well as the efficacy of increasing the dose and reducing the dose interval. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a novel biomechanical fracture model for distal radius fractures

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Distal radius fractures (DRF) are one of the most common fractures and often need surgical treatment, which has been validated through biomechanical tests. Currently a number of different fracture models are used, none of which resemble the in vivo fracture location. The aim of the study was to develop a new standardized fracture model for DRF (AO-23.A3) and compare its biomechanical behavior to the current gold standard. Methods Variable angle locking volar plates (ADAPTIVE, Medartis) were mounted on 10 pairs of fresh-frozen radii. The osteotomy location was alternated within each pair (New: 10 mm wedge 8 mm / 12 mm proximal to the dorsal / volar apex of the articular surface; Gold standard: 10 mm wedge 20 mm proximal to the articular surface). Each specimen was tested in cyclic axial compression (increasing load by 100 N per cycle) until failure or −3 mm displacement. Parameters assessed were stiffness, displacement and dissipated work calculated for each cycle and ultimate load. Significance was tested using a linear mixed model and Wald test as well as t-tests. Results 7 female and 3 male pairs of radii aged 74 ± 9 years were tested. In most cases (7/10), the two groups showed similar mechanical behavior at low loads with increasing differences at increasing loads. Overall the novel fracture model showed a significant different biomechanical behavior than the gold standard model (p < 0,001). The average final loads resisted were significantly lower in the novel model (860 N ± 232 N vs. 1250 N ± 341 N; p = 0.001). Conclusion The novel biomechanical fracture model for DRF more closely mimics the in vivo fracture site and shows a significantly different biomechanical behavior with increasing loads when compared to the current gold standard. PMID:23244634

Gaussian Processes for Prediction of Homing Pigeon Flight Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Richard; Freeman, Robin; Osborne, Michael; Garnett, Roman; Meade, Jessica; Armstrong, Chris; Biro, Dora; Guilford, Tim; Roberts, Stephen

2009-12-01

We construct and apply a stochastic Gaussian Process (GP) model of flight trajectory generation for pigeons trained to home from specific release sites. The model shows increasing predictive power as the birds become familiar with the sites, mirroring the animal's learning process. We show how the increasing similarity between successive flight trajectories can be used to infer, with increasing accuracy, an idealised route that captures the repeated spatial aspects of the bird's flight. We subsequently use techniques associated with reduced-rank GP approximations to objectively identify the key waypoints used by each bird to memorise its idiosyncratic habitual route between the release site and the home loft.

An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

2017-12-01

Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

2011-07-01

Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in oxygen is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of oxygen due to lateral diffusion. compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Evolution of the potential distribution area of french mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-02-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growths with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE - MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20 and 21 centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5°K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak, respectively) at the end of the 21 century. While both species have complementary growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21 century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

Effects of habitat characteristics on the growth of carrier population leading to increased spread of typhoid fever: a model.

PubMed

Shukla, J B; Goyal, Ashish; Singh, Shikha; Chandra, Peeyush

2014-06-01

In this paper, a non-linear model is proposed and analyzed to study the effects of habitat characteristics favoring logistically growing carrier population leading to increased spread of typhoid fever. It is assumed that the cumulative density of habitat characteristics and the density of carrier population are governed by logistic models; the growth rate of the former increases as the density of human population increases. The model is analyzed by stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The analysis shows that as the density of the infective carrier population increases due to habitat characteristics, the spread of typhoid fever increases in comparison with the case without such factors. Copyright © 2013 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

The effects of aging, housing and ibuprofen treatment on brain neurochemistry in a triple transgene Alzheimer's disease mouse model using magnetic resonance spectroscopy and imaging.

PubMed

Choi, Ji-Kyung; Carreras, Isabel; Aytan, Nur; Jenkins-Sahlin, Eric; Dedeoglu, Alpaslan; Jenkins, Bruce G

2014-11-24

We investigated a triple transgene Alzheimer's disease (AD) mouse model that recapitulates many of the neurochemical, anatomic, pathologic and behavioral defects seen in human AD. We studied the mice as a function of age and brain region and investigated potential therapy with the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug ibuprofen. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) showed alterations characteristic of AD (i.e. increased myo-inositol and decreased N-acetylaspartate (NAA)). Mice at 6 months of age showed an increase in myo-inositol in the hippocampus at a time when the Aβ is intracellular, but not in amygdala or cortex. Myo-inositol increased as a function of age in the amygdala, cortex and striatum while NAA decreased only in the hippocampus and cortex at 17-23 months of age. Ibuprofen protected the increase of myo-inositol at six months of age in the hippocampus, but had no effect at 17-23 months of age (a time when Aβ is extracellular). In vivo MRI and MRS showed that at 17-23 months of age there was a significant protective effect of ibuprofen on hippocampal volume and NAA loss. Together, these data show the following: the increase in myo-inositol occurs before the decrease in NAA in hippocampus but not cortex; the hippocampus shows earlier changes than does the amygdale or cortex consistent with earlier deposition of Aβ40-42 in the hippocampus and ibuprofen protects against multiple components of the AD pathology. These data also show a profound effect of housing on this particular mouse model. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Electrical Wave Propagation in an Anisotropic Model of the Left Ventricle Based on Analytical Description of Cardiac Architecture

PubMed Central

Pravdin, Sergey F.; Dierckx, Hans; Katsnelson, Leonid B.; Solovyova, Olga; Markhasin, Vladimir S.; Panfilov, Alexander V.

2014-01-01

We develop a numerical approach based on our recent analytical model of fiber structure in the left ventricle of the human heart. A special curvilinear coordinate system is proposed to analytically include realistic ventricular shape and myofiber directions. With this anatomical model, electrophysiological simulations can be performed on a rectangular coordinate grid. We apply our method to study the effect of fiber rotation and electrical anisotropy of cardiac tissue (i.e., the ratio of the conductivity coefficients along and across the myocardial fibers) on wave propagation using the ten Tusscher–Panfilov (2006) ionic model for human ventricular cells. We show that fiber rotation increases the speed of cardiac activation and attenuates the effects of anisotropy. Our results show that the fiber rotation in the heart is an important factor underlying cardiac excitation. We also study scroll wave dynamics in our model and show the drift of a scroll wave filament whose velocity depends non-monotonically on the fiber rotation angle; the period of scroll wave rotation decreases with an increase of the fiber rotation angle; an increase in anisotropy may cause the breakup of a scroll wave, similar to the mother rotor mechanism of ventricular fibrillation. PMID:24817308

Study of Gas Flow Characteristics in Tight Porous Media with a Microscale Lattice Boltzmann Model

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jianlin; Yao, Jun; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Lei; Yang, Yongfei; Sun, Hai; An, Senyou; Li, Aifen

2016-01-01

To investigate the gas flow characteristics in tight porous media, a microscale lattice Boltzmann (LB) model with the regularization procedure is firstly adopted to simulate gas flow in three-dimensional (3D) digital rocks. A shale digital rock and a sandstone digital rock are reconstructed to study the effects of pressure, temperature and pore size on microscale gas flow. The simulation results show that because of the microscale effect in tight porous media, the apparent permeability is always higher than the intrinsic permeability, and with the decrease of pressure or pore size, or with the increase of temperature, the difference between apparent permeability and intrinsic permeability increases. In addition, the Knudsen numbers under different conditions are calculated and the results show that gas flow characteristics in the digital rocks under different Knudsen numbers are quite different. With the increase of Knudsen number, gas flow in the digital rocks becomes more uniform and the effect of heterogeneity of the porous media on gas flow decreases. Finally, two commonly used apparent permeability calculation models are evaluated by the simulation results and the Klinkenberg model shows better accuracy. In addition, a better proportionality factor in Klinkenberg model is proposed according to the simulation results. PMID:27587293

Normal tissue complication probability modelling of tissue fibrosis following breast radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. A. R.; Brooks, W. A.; Blake, S. W.

2007-04-01

Cosmetic late effects of radiotherapy such as tissue fibrosis are increasingly regarded as being of importance. It is generally considered that the complication probability of a radiotherapy plan is dependent on the dose uniformity, and can be reduced by using better compensation to remove dose hotspots. This work aimed to model the effects of improved dose homogeneity on complication probability. The Lyman and relative seriality NTCP models were fitted to clinical fibrosis data for the breast collated from the literature. Breast outlines were obtained from a commercially available Rando phantom using the Osiris system. Multislice breast treatment plans were produced using a variety of compensation methods. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) obtained for each treatment plan were reduced to simple numerical parameters using the equivalent uniform dose and effective volume DVH reduction methods. These parameters were input into the models to obtain complication probability predictions. The fitted model parameters were consistent with a parallel tissue architecture. Conventional clinical plans generally showed reducing complication probabilities with increasing compensation sophistication. Extremely homogenous plans representing idealized IMRT treatments showed increased complication probabilities compared to conventional planning methods, as a result of increased dose to areas receiving sub-prescription doses using conventional techniques.

Noise can speed convergence in Markov chains.

PubMed

Franzke, Brandon; Kosko, Bart

2011-10-01

A new theorem shows that noise can speed convergence to equilibrium in discrete finite-state Markov chains. The noise applies to the state density and helps the Markov chain explore improbable regions of the state space. The theorem ensures that a stochastic-resonance noise benefit exists for states that obey a vector-norm inequality. Such noise leads to faster convergence because the noise reduces the norm components. A corollary shows that a noise benefit still occurs if the system states obey an alternate norm inequality. This leads to a noise-benefit algorithm that requires knowledge of the steady state. An alternative blind algorithm uses only past state information to achieve a weaker noise benefit. Simulations illustrate the predicted noise benefits in three well-known Markov models. The first model is a two-parameter Ehrenfest diffusion model that shows how noise benefits can occur in the class of birth-death processes. The second model is a Wright-Fisher model of genotype drift in population genetics. The third model is a chemical reaction network of zeolite crystallization. A fourth simulation shows a convergence rate increase of 64% for states that satisfy the theorem and an increase of 53% for states that satisfy the corollary. A final simulation shows that even suboptimal noise can speed convergence if the noise applies over successive time cycles. Noise benefits tend to be sharpest in Markov models that do not converge quickly and that do not have strong absorbing states.

Postseismic viscoelastic deformation and stress. Part 2: Stress theory and computation; dependence of displacement, strain, and stress on fault parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1979-01-01

A viscoelastic model for deformation and stress associated with earthquakes is reported. The model consists of a rectangular dislocation (strike slip fault) in a viscoelastic layer (lithosphere) lying over a viscoelastic half space (asthenosphere). The time dependent surface stresses are analyzed. The model predicts that near the fault a significant fraction of the stress that was reduced during the earthquake is recovered by viscoelastic softening of the lithosphere. By contrast, the strain shows very little change near the fault. The model also predicts that the stress changes associated with asthenospheric flow extend over a broader region than those associated with lithospheric relaxation even though the peak value is less. The dependence of the displacements, stresses on fault parameters studied. Peak values of strain and stress drop increase with increasing fault height and decrease with fault depth. Under many circumstances postseismic strains and stresses show an increase with decreasing depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Values of the strain and stress at distant points from the fault increase with fault area but are relatively insensitive to fault depth.

Increased diffuse radiation fraction does not significantly accelerate plant growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angert, Alon; Krakauer, Nir

2010-05-01

A recent modelling study (Mercado et al., 2009) claims that increased numbers of scattering aerosols are responsible for a substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink in recent decades because higher diffuse light fraction enhances plant net primary production (NPP). Here we show that observations of atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle and tree ring data indicate that the relation between diffuse light and NPP is actually quite weak on annual timescales. The inconsistency of these data with the modelling results may arise because the relationships used to quantify the enhancement of NPP were calibrated with eddy covariance measurements of hourly carbon uptake. The effect of diffuse-light fraction on carbon uptake could depend on timescale, since this effect varies rapidly as sun angle and cloudiness change, and since plants can respond dynamically over various timescales to change in incoming radiation. Volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, provide the best available tests for the effect of an annual-scale increase in the diffuse light fraction. Following the Pinatubo Eruption, in 1992 and 1993, a sharp decrease in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate was observed. This could have resulted from enhanced plant carbon uptake. Mercado et al. (2009) argue that largely as a result of the (volcanic aerosol driven) increase in diffuse light fraction, NPP was elevated in 1992, particularly between 25° N-45° N where annual NPP was modelled to be ~0.8 PgC (~10%) above average. In a previous study (Angert et al., 2004) a biogeochemical model (CASA) linked to an atmospheric tracer model (MATCH), was used to show that a diffuse-radiation driven increase in NPP in the extratropics will enhance carbon uptake mostly in summer, leading to a lower CO2 seasonal minimum. Here we use a 'toy model' to show that this conclusion is general and model-independent. The model shows that an enhanced sink of 0.8 PgC, similar to that modelled by Mercado et al. (2009), will result in a measurable decrease (~0.6ppm) in the seasonal CO2 minimum. This holds regardless of whether the sink is the result of 1) An increase in NPP, or 2) The combined effect of a temperature-driven decrease in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and no change in NPP. This is since both NPP and Rh peak in summer. By contrast, observations from the NOAA global CO2 monitoring network show the opposite change in the seasonal minimum in 1992 and 1993 (~0.2ppm increase) both at Mauna Loa, and in the Marine Boundary Layer mean (>20° N), which is hard to reconcile with increased NPP in northern summer. Another indicator of annual NPP is tree wood increment. Previous work (Krakauer et al., 2003) showed that the average response in tree ring series after past Pinatubo-size volcanic eruptions implied lower NPP north of 45° N, presumably as a result of shorter growing season and lower total irradiance induced by scattering aerosols, and no significant change in NPP at lower latitudes. Here we show that In 1992, after the Pinatubo eruption, ring width in the 25° N-45° N band was 99.3±2.9% of average (n=351 sites), similar to the average of 100.4±2.2% over past eruptions (n=15 eruptions) (Uncertainty is given as 2 SE.). These results are also inconsistent with substantial NPP enhancement, although a limitation of the tree-ring approach is that available measurements do not uniformly sample the latitude band. The combined evidence of tree rings and the CO2 seasonal cycle shows that the enhancement of NPP by scattering aerosols on annual timescales is weak. This result suggests that reducing aerosols through stricter pollution controls may strengthen the land carbon sink, while geo-engineering schemes which aim to mitigate global warming by spreading scattering aerosols in the stratosphere may weaken it.

Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

Docosahexaenoic acid modifies the clustering and size of lipid rafts and the lateral organization and surface expression of MHC class I of EL4 cells.

PubMed

Shaikh, Saame Raza; Rockett, Benjamin Drew; Salameh, Muhammad; Carraway, Kristen

2009-09-01

An emerging molecular mechanism by which docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) exerts its effects is modification of lipid raft organization. The biophysical model, based on studies with liposomes, shows that DHA avoids lipid rafts because of steric incompatibility between DHA and cholesterol. The model predicts that DHA does not directly modify rafts; rather, it incorporates into nonrafts to modify the lateral organization and/or conformation of membrane proteins, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I. Here, we tested predictions of the model at a cellular level by incorporating oleic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and DHA, compared with a bovine serum albumin (BSA) control, into the membranes of EL4 cells. Quantitative microscopy showed that DHA, but not EPA, treatment, relative to the BSA control diminished lipid raft clustering and increased their size. Approximately 30% of DHA was incorporated directly into rafts without changing the distribution of cholesterol between rafts and nonrafts. Quantification of fluorescence colocalization images showed that DHA selectively altered MHC class I lateral organization by increasing the fraction of the nonraft protein into rafts compared with BSA. Both DHA and EPA treatments increased antibody binding to MHC class I compared with BSA. Antibody titration showed that DHA and EPA did not change MHC I conformation but increased total surface levels relative to BSA. Taken together, our findings are not in agreement with the biophysical model. Therefore, we propose a model that reconciles contradictory viewpoints from biophysical and cellular studies to explain how DHA modifies lipid rafts on several length scales. Our study supports the notion that rafts are an important target of DHA's mode of action.

A review of national and international activities on modeling the effects of increased CO/sub 2/ concentrations on the simulation of regional crop production: (A report on linkage between climate and crop models): Progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Decker, W.L.; Achutuni, R.

1987-01-01

General circulation models have been used to estimate the probable changes in climate due to increased levels of carbon dioxide. These models, generally, project increases in the mean surface temperatures; but changes in precipitation due to CO/sub 2/ enrichment are not as clear. It appears that some process models, which utilize a minimum amount of empiricism, can be adopted for use in studying the impacts of both climate change scenarios and the direct effects of CO/sub 2/ fertilization. The CERES-Maize, CERES-Wheat, SORGF, GLYCIM, and SOYGRO are among those classified for this use. There is a great deal of effort beingmore » directed toward these developments. A WMO/UNEP/ICSU focus has sponsored at least two European meetings but with only limited success for testing production models. A similar effort has been conducted by the Commission of European Communities. An attempt has been made to modify the CERES models, which have been used in climate studies, for use in simulation of the direct effects. Initial simulations involving this modification, show that doubling CO/sub 2/ will increase corn production 12 to 30% at locations in northern Illinois for the four-year period 1982 to 1985. The increase in yield due to higher photosynthesis showed a greater effect than the impact of decreased transpiration.« less

An investigation of the kinetic processes influencing mercury emissions from sand and soil samples of varying thickness.

PubMed

Quinones, Jason L; Carpi, Anthony

2011-01-01

Mercury flux from HgCl2-treated sand and untreated soil samples of varying thickness (0.5-15 mm) were measured in dark and light under a Teflon dynamic flux chamber. Mean emissions over a 5.5-d sampling period showed an increase with depth for sand samples between 0.5 and 2 mm, but increasing depth above 2 mm had no effect. First-order kinetic models showed strong goodness of fit to the data and explained a high degree ofvariability in the emissions profile of all sand samples (R = 0.70-0.98). Soil samples showed an initial emissions peak that was not correlated with depth, suggesting a very shallow process at work. However, longer-term "baseline" emissions, measured as mean emissions between days 4.5 and 5.5, did show a relationship with depth. First-order kinetic models showed good fit for soil samples up to 4 mm thick (R2 = 0.66-0.91); however, thicker samples did not show a consistent fit to first- or second-order kinetic models (1 degree R2 = 0.00-0.46; 2 degree R2 = 0.00-0.54). The data suggest that mercury emissions from soil samples may follow a multicomponent model for which more

Longitudinal Effects of Embryonic Exposure to Cocaine on Morphology, Cardiovascular Physiology, and Behavior in Zebrafish.

PubMed

Mersereau, Eric J; Boyle, Cody A; Poitra, Shelby; Espinoza, Ana; Seiler, Joclyn; Longie, Robert; Delvo, Lisa; Szarkowski, Megan; Maliske, Joshua; Chalmers, Sarah; Darland, Diane C; Darland, Tristan

2016-05-31

A sizeable portion of the societal drain from cocaine abuse results from the complications of in utero drug exposure. Because of challenges in using humans and mammalian model organisms as test subjects, much debate remains about the impact of in utero cocaine exposure. Zebrafish offer a number of advantages as a model in longitudinal toxicology studies and are quite sensitive physiologically and behaviorally to cocaine. In this study, we have used zebrafish to model the effects of embryonic pre-exposure to cocaine on development and on subsequent cardiovascular physiology and cocaine-induced conditioned place preference (CPP) in longitudinal adults. Larval fish showed a progressive decrease in telencephalic size with increased doses of cocaine. These treated larvae also showed a dose dependent response in heart rate that persisted 24 h after drug cessation. Embryonic cocaine exposure had little effect on overall health of longitudinal adults, but subtle changes in cardiovascular physiology were seen including decreased sensitivity to isoproterenol and increased sensitivity to cocaine. These longitudinal adult fish also showed an embryonic dose-dependent change in CPP behavior, suggesting an increased sensitivity. These studies clearly show that pre-exposure during embryonic development affects subsequent cocaine sensitivity in longitudinal adults.

Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Li, Tim

2018-06-01

Based on the outputs of 30 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the fractional changes in the amplitude interannual variability (σ) for precipitation (P') and vertical velocity (ω') are assessed, and simple theoretical models are constructed to quantitatively understand the changes in σ(P') and σ(ω'). Both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show similar results in term of the fractional change per degree of warming, with slightly lower inter-model uncertainty under RCP8.5. Based on the multi-model median, σ(P') generally increases but σ(ω') generally decreases under global warming but both are characterized by non-uniform spatial patterns. The σ(P') decrease over subtropical subsidence regions but increase elsewhere, with a regional averaged value of 1.4% K- 1 over 20°S-50°N under RCP8.5. Diagnoses show that the mechanisms for the change in σ(P') are different for climatological ascending and descending regions. Over ascending regions, the increase of mean state specific humidity contributes to a general increase of σ(P') but the change of σ(ω') dominates its spatial pattern and inter-model uncertainty. But over descending regions, the change of σ(P') and its inter-model uncertainty are constrained by the change of mean state precipitation. The σ(ω') is projected to be weakened almost everywhere except over equatorial Pacific, with a regional averaged fractional change of - 3.4% K- 1 at 500 hPa. The overall reduction of σ(ω') results from the increased mean state static stability, while the substantially increased σ(ω') at the mid-upper troposphere over equatorial Pacific and the inter-model uncertainty of the changes in σ(ω') are dominated by the change in the interannual variability of diabatic heating.

Effects of field plot size on prediction accuracy of aboveground biomass in airborne laser scanning-assisted inventories in tropical rain forests of Tanzania.

PubMed

Mauya, Ernest William; Hansen, Endre Hofstad; Gobakken, Terje; Bollandsås, Ole Martin; Malimbwi, Rogers Ernest; Næsset, Erik

2015-12-01

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) has recently emerged as a promising tool to acquire auxiliary information for improving aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in sample-based forest inventories. Under design-based and model-assisted inferential frameworks, the estimation relies on a model that relates the auxiliary ALS metrics to AGB estimated on ground plots. The size of the field plots has been identified as one source of model uncertainty because of the so-called boundary effects which increases with decreasing plot size. Recent research in tropical forests has aimed to quantify the boundary effects on model prediction accuracy, but evidence of the consequences for the final AGB estimates is lacking. In this study we analyzed the effect of field plot size on model prediction accuracy and its implication when used in a model-assisted inferential framework. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model improved as the plot size increased. The adjusted R 2 increased from 0.35 to 0.74 while the relative root mean square error decreased from 63.6 to 29.2%. Indicators of boundary effects were identified and confirmed to have significant effects on the model residuals. Variance estimates of model-assisted mean AGB relative to corresponding variance estimates of pure field-based AGB, decreased with increasing plot size in the range from 200 to 3000 m 2 . The variance ratio of field-based estimates relative to model-assisted variance ranged from 1.7 to 7.7. This study showed that the relative improvement in precision of AGB estimation when increasing field-plot size, was greater for an ALS-assisted inventory compared to that of a pure field-based inventory.

OCEANFILMS-2: Representing coadsorption of saccharides in marine films and potential impacts on modeled marine aerosol chemistry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burrows, Susannah M.; Gobrogge, Eric; Fu, Li

Here we show that the addition of chemical interactions of soluble polysaccharides with a surfactant monolayer improves agreement of modeled sea spray chemistry with observed marine aerosol chemistry. In particular, the fraction of hydroxyl functional groups in modeled sea spray organic matter is increased, improving agreement with FTIR observations of marine aerosol composition. The overall organic fraction of submicron sea spray also increases, allowing organic mass fractions in the range 0.5 – 0.7 for submicron sea spray particles over highly active phytoplankton blooms. We show results from Sum Frequency Generation (SFG) experiments that support the modeling approach, by demonstrating thatmore » soluble polysaccharides can strongly adsorb to a lipid monolayer via columbic interactions under appropriate conditions.« less

Making C4 crops more water efficient under current and future climate: Tradeoffs between carbon gain and water loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Pignon, C.

2017-12-01

C4 plants have a carbon concentrating mechanism that has evolved under historically low CO2 concentrations of around 200 ppm. However, increases in global CO2 concentrations in recent times (current CO2 concentrations are at 400 ppm and it is projected to be 550 ppm by mid-century) have diminished the relative advantage of C4 plants over C3 plants, which lack the expensive carbon concentrating machinery. Here we show by employing model simulations that under pre-historic CO2 concentrations, C4 plants are near optimal in their stomatal behavior and nitrogen partitioning between carbon concentrating machinery and carboxylation machinery, and they are significantly supra-optimal under current and future elevated CO2 concentrations. Model simulations performed at current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm show that, under high light conditions, decreasing stomatal conductance by 20% results in a 15% increase in water use efficiency with negligible loss in photosynthesis. Under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm, a 40% decrease in stomatal conductance produces a 35% increase in water use efficiency. Furthermore, stomatal closure is shown to be more effective in decreasing whole canopy transpiration compared to canopy top leaf transpiration, since shaded leaves are more supra-optimal than sunlit leaves. Model simulations for optimizing nitrogen distribution in C4 leaves show that under high light conditions, C4 plants over invest in carbon concentrating machinery and under invest in carboxylation machinery. A 20% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 10% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm. Similarly, a 40% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 15% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm. Our model optimality simulations show that C4 leaves a supra optimal in their stomatal behavior and leaf nitrogen distribution and by decreasing stomatal conductance and redistributing nitrogen away from carbon concentrating mechanism and towards carboxylation machinery, we can significantly decrease transpiration and increase carbon assimilation thereby increasing water use efficiency.

European scale climate information services for water use sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

2015-09-01

This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

Transitions amongst synchronous solutions in the stochastic Kuramoto model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVille, Lee

2012-05-01

We consider the Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators with nearest-neighbour coupling and additive white noise. We show that synchronous solutions which are stable without the addition of noise become metastable and that we have transitions amongst synchronous solutions on long timescales. We compute these timescales and, moreover, compute the most likely path in phase space that transitions will follow. We show that these transition timescales do not increase as the number of oscillators in the system increases, and are roughly constant in the system size. Finally, we show that the transitions correspond to a splitting of one synchronous solution into two communities which move independently for some time and which rejoin to form a different synchronous solution.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of land surface parameters using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M.; Nijssen, Bart; Wagener, Thorsten

2007-06-01

Current land surface models use increasingly complex descriptions of the processes that they represent. Increase in complexity is accompanied by an increase in the number of model parameters, many of which cannot be measured directly at large spatial scales. A Monte Carlo framework was used to evaluate the sensitivity and identifiability of ten parameters controlling surface and subsurface runoff generation in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Using the Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT), parameter sensitivities were studied for four U.S. watersheds along a hydroclimatic gradient, based on a 20-year data set developed for the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Results showed that simulated streamflows are sensitive to three parameters when evaluated with different objective functions. Sensitivity of the infiltration parameter (b) and the drainage parameter (exp) were strongly related to the hydroclimatic gradient. The placement of vegetation roots played an important role in the sensitivity of model simulations to the thickness of the second soil layer (thick2). Overparameterization was found in the base flow formulation indicating that a simplified version could be implemented. Parameter sensitivity was more strongly dictated by climatic gradients than by changes in soil properties. Results showed how a complex model can be reduced to a more parsimonious form, leading to a more identifiable model with an increased chance of successful regionalization to ungauged basins. Although parameter sensitivities are strictly valid for VIC, this model is representative of a wider class of macroscale hydrological models. Consequently, the results and methodology will have applicability to other hydrological models.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?*

PubMed Central

Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

2014-01-01

Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986–2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections’ positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment. PMID:26052164

Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?

PubMed

Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

2008-10-01

Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986-2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections' positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment.

Nasal high flow clears anatomical dead space in upper airway models

PubMed Central

Celik, Gülnaz; Feng, Sheng; Bartenstein, Peter; Meyer, Gabriele; Eickelberg, Oliver; Schmid, Otmar; Tatkov, Stanislav

2015-01-01

Recent studies showed that nasal high flow (NHF) with or without supplemental oxygen can assist ventilation of patients with chronic respiratory and sleep disorders. The hypothesis of this study was to test whether NHF can clear dead space in two different models of the upper nasal airways. The first was a simple tube model consisting of a nozzle to simulate the nasal valve area, connected to a cylindrical tube to simulate the nasal cavity. The second was a more complex anatomically representative upper airway model, constructed from segmented CT-scan images of a healthy volunteer. After filling the models with tracer gases, NHF was delivered at rates of 15, 30, and 45 l/min. The tracer gas clearance was determined using dynamic infrared CO2 spectroscopy and 81mKr-gas radioactive gamma camera imaging. There was a similar tracer-gas clearance characteristic in the tube model and the upper airway model: clearance half-times were below 1.0 s and decreased with increasing NHF rates. For both models, the anterior compartments demonstrated faster clearance levels (half-times < 0.5 s) and the posterior sections showed slower clearance (half-times < 1.0 s). Both imaging methods showed similar flow-dependent tracer-gas clearance in the models. For the anatomically based model, there was complete tracer-gas removal from the nasal cavities within 1.0 s. The level of clearance in the nasal cavities increased by 1.8 ml/s for every 1.0 l/min increase in the rate of NHF. The study has demonstrated the fast-occurring clearance of nasal cavities by NHF therapy, which is capable of reducing of dead space rebreathing. PMID:25882385

A farm-level precision land management framework based on integer programming

PubMed Central

Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping; Jubery, Talukder Zaki; Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar

2017-01-01

Farmland management involves several planning and decision making tasks including seed selection and irrigation management. A farm-level precision farmland management model based on mixed integer linear programming is proposed in this study. Optimal decisions are designed for pre-season planning of crops and irrigation water allocation. The model captures the effect of size and shape of decision scale as well as special irrigation patterns. The authors illustrate the model with a case study on a farm in the state of California in the U.S. and show the model can capture the impact of precision farm management on profitability. The results show that threefold increase of annual net profit for farmers could be achieved by carefully choosing irrigation and seed selection. Although farmers could increase profits by applying precision management to seed or irrigation alone, profit increase is more significant if farmers apply precision management on seed and irrigation simultaneously. The proposed model can also serve as a risk analysis tool for farmers facing seasonal irrigation water limits as well as a quantitative tool to explore the impact of precision agriculture. PMID:28346499

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Stent conformity in curved vascular models with simulated aneurysm necks using flat-panel CT: an in vitro study.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, N; Claus, B; Lee, C-Y; Biondi, A; Benndorf, G

2007-05-01

Radiographic visibility of self-expandable intracranial stents is insufficient for assessment of conformability and deployment characteristics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate stent mechanics in a curved vessel model by using Flat-Panel CT (FPCT). The following stents were used: Neuroform 2, Neuroform Treo, Enterprise, and LEO. All stents were bent in the same polytetrafluoroethylene tubes with various angles ranging from 150 degrees to 30 degrees . To visualize potential prolapse of the stent struts, 4-, 5-, and 8-mm openings were created. FPCTs were obtained using a C-arm with flat detector. FPCT scans provided excellent visualization of deployment characteristics and stent mechanics and was superior to digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and digital radiography (DR). The Neuroform2/Treo showed, with increasing angle and diameter of the opening, a continuous increase in cell size. These stents also showed an outward prolapse at the convexity and an inwards prolapse of struts at the concavity of the curvature. The Enterprise showed an increasing trend to flatten and to kink with curvatures that are more acute. The LEO showed fewer trends to kink but an inward crimping of its ends with more acute angles. Deployment characteristics and conformability to a curved vessel model vary considerably, depending on the angle and the stent design. Adverse mechanics such as increased cell opening, strut prolapse, flattening, and kinking occur during stent placement in a curved vessel model, and may gain clinical importance. FPCT is superior to DSA and DR in visualizing small metallic stents and enables accurate detection of adverse stent mechanics.

Why Bother to Calibrate? Model Consistency and the Value of Prior Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Euser, Tanja; Gharari, Shervan; Nijzink, Remko; Savenije, Hubert; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal

2015-04-01

Hydrological models frequently suffer from limited predictive power despite adequate calibration performances. This can indicate insufficient representations of the underlying processes. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency while satisfying the contrasting priorities of increased model complexity and limited equifinality. In this study the value of a systematic use of hydrological signatures and expert knowledge for increasing model consistency was tested. It was found that a simple conceptual model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions, was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph in the calibration period. The model, however, could not reproduce 20 hydrological signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently, testing 11 models, model complexity was increased in a stepwise way and counter-balanced by using prior information about the system to impose "prior constraints", inferred from expert knowledge and to ensure a model which behaves well with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. We showed that, in spite of unchanged calibration performance, the most complex model set-up exhibited increased performance in the independent test period and skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a better system representation. The results suggest that a model may be inadequate despite good performance with respect to multiple calibration objectives and that increasing model complexity, if efficiently counter-balanced by available prior constraints, can increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce hydrological signatures. The results strongly illustrate the need to balance automated model calibration with a more expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models.

Why Bother and Calibrate? Model Consistency and the Value of Prior Information.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, M.; Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Euser, T.; Gharari, S.; Nijzink, R.; Freer, J. E.; Savenije, H.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.

2014-12-01

Hydrological models frequently suffer from limited predictive power despite adequate calibration performances. This can indicate insufficient representations of the underlying processes. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency while satisfying the contrasting priorities of increased model complexity and limited equifinality. In this study the value of a systematic use of hydrological signatures and expert knowledge for increasing model consistency was tested. It was found that a simple conceptual model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions, was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph in the calibration period. The model, however, could not reproduce 20 hydrological signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently, testing 11 models, model complexity was increased in a stepwise way and counter-balanced by using prior information about the system to impose "prior constraints", inferred from expert knowledge and to ensure a model which behaves well with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. We showed that, in spite of unchanged calibration performance, the most complex model set-up exhibited increased performance in the independent test period and skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a better system representation. The results suggest that a model may be inadequate despite good performance with respect to multiple calibration objectives and that increasing model complexity, if efficiently counter-balanced by available prior constraints, can increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce hydrological signatures. The results strongly illustrate the need to balance automated model calibration with a more expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models.

Process consistency in models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, M.; Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Euser, T.; Gharari, S.; Nijzink, R.; Freer, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.

2014-09-01

Hydrological models frequently suffer from limited predictive power despite adequate calibration performances. This can indicate insufficient representations of the underlying processes. Thus, ways are sought to increase model consistency while satisfying the contrasting priorities of increased model complexity and limited equifinality. In this study, the value of a systematic use of hydrological signatures and expert knowledge for increasing model consistency was tested. It was found that a simple conceptual model, constrained by four calibration objective functions, was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph in the calibration period. The model, however, could not reproduce a suite of hydrological signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently, testing 11 models, model complexity was increased in a stepwise way and counter-balanced by "prior constraints," inferred from expert knowledge to ensure a model which behaves well with respect to the modeler's perception of the system. We showed that, in spite of unchanged calibration performance, the most complex model setup exhibited increased performance in the independent test period and skill to better reproduce all tested signatures, indicating a better system representation. The results suggest that a model may be inadequate despite good performance with respect to multiple calibration objectives and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by prior constraints, can significantly increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce hydrological signatures. The results strongly illustrate the need to balance automated model calibration with a more expert-knowledge-driven strategy of constraining models.

Abscisic Acid Regulation of Root Hydraulic Conductivity and Aquaporin Gene Expression Is Crucial to the Plant Shoot Growth Enhancement Caused by Rhizosphere Humic Acids.

PubMed

Olaetxea, Maite; Mora, Verónica; Bacaicoa, Eva; Garnica, María; Fuentes, Marta; Casanova, Esther; Zamarreño, Angel M; Iriarte, Juan C; Etayo, David; Ederra, Iñigo; Gonzalo, Ramón; Baigorri, Roberto; García-Mina, Jose M

2015-12-01

The physiological and metabolic mechanisms behind the humic acid-mediated plant growth enhancement are discussed in detail. Experiments using cucumber (Cucumis sativus) plants show that the shoot growth enhancement caused by a structurally well-characterized humic acid with sedimentary origin is functionally associated with significant increases in abscisic acid (ABA) root concentration and root hydraulic conductivity. Complementary experiments involving a blocking agent of cell wall pores and water root transport (polyethylenglycol) show that increases in root hydraulic conductivity are essential in the shoot growth-promoting action of the model humic acid. Further experiments involving an inhibitor of ABA biosynthesis in root and shoot (fluridone) show that the humic acid-mediated enhancement of both root hydraulic conductivity and shoot growth depended on ABA signaling pathways. These experiments also show that a significant increase in the gene expression of the main root plasma membrane aquaporins is associated with the increase of root hydraulic conductivity caused by the model humic acid. Finally, experimental data suggest that all of these actions of model humic acid on root functionality, which are linked to its beneficial action on plant shoot growth, are likely related to the conformational structure of humic acid in solution and its interaction with the cell wall at the root surface. © 2015 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Application of acidic treated pumice as an adsorbent for the removal of azo dye from aqueous solutions: kinetic, equilibrium and thermodynamic studies

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Colored effluents are one of the important environment pollution sources since they contain unused dye compounds which are toxic and less-biodegradable. In this work removal of Acid Red 14 and Acid Red 18 azo dyes was investigated by acidic treated pumice stone as an efficient adsorbent at various experimental conditions. Removal of dye increased with increase in contact time and initial dye concentration, while decreased for increment in solution temperature and pH. Results of the equilibrium study showed that the removal of AR14 and AR18 followed Freundlich (r2>0.99) and Langmuir (r2>0.99) isotherm models. Maximum sorption capacities were 3.1 and 29.7 mg/g for AR 14 and AR18, namely significantly higher than those reported in the literature, even for activated carbon. Fitting of experimental data onto kinetic models showed the relevance of the pseudo-second order (r2>0.99) and intra-particle diffusion (r2>0.98) models for AR14 and AR18, respectively. For both dyes, the values of external mass transfer coefficient decreased for increasing initial dye concentrations, showing increasing external mass transfer resistance at solid/liquid layer. Desorption experiments confirmed the relevance of pumice stone for dye removal, since the pH regeneration method showed 86% and 89% regeneration for AR14 and AR18, respectively. PMID:23369579

Abscisic Acid Regulation of Root Hydraulic Conductivity and Aquaporin Gene Expression Is Crucial to the Plant Shoot Growth Enhancement Caused by Rhizosphere Humic Acids1

PubMed Central

Bacaicoa, Eva; Garnica, María; Fuentes, Marta; Casanova, Esther; Etayo, David; Ederra, Iñigo; Gonzalo, Ramón

2015-01-01

The physiological and metabolic mechanisms behind the humic acid-mediated plant growth enhancement are discussed in detail. Experiments using cucumber (Cucumis sativus) plants show that the shoot growth enhancement caused by a structurally well-characterized humic acid with sedimentary origin is functionally associated with significant increases in abscisic acid (ABA) root concentration and root hydraulic conductivity. Complementary experiments involving a blocking agent of cell wall pores and water root transport (polyethylenglycol) show that increases in root hydraulic conductivity are essential in the shoot growth-promoting action of the model humic acid. Further experiments involving an inhibitor of ABA biosynthesis in root and shoot (fluridone) show that the humic acid-mediated enhancement of both root hydraulic conductivity and shoot growth depended on ABA signaling pathways. These experiments also show that a significant increase in the gene expression of the main root plasma membrane aquaporins is associated with the increase of root hydraulic conductivity caused by the model humic acid. Finally, experimental data suggest that all of these actions of model humic acid on root functionality, which are linked to its beneficial action on plant shoot growth, are likely related to the conformational structure of humic acid in solution and its interaction with the cell wall at the root surface. PMID:26450705

Computational fluid dynamic on the temperature simulation of air preheat effect combustion in propane turbulent flame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elwina; Yunardi; Bindar, Yazid

2018-04-01

this paper presents results obtained from the application of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Fluent 6.3 to modelling of temperature in propane flames with and without air preheat. The study focuses to investigate the effect of air preheat temperature on the temperature of the flame. A standard k-ε model and Eddy Dissipation model are utilized to represent the flow field and combustion of the flame being investigated, respectively. The results of calculations are compared with experimental data of propane flame taken from literature. The results of the study show that a combination of the standard k-ε turbulence model and eddy dissipation model is capable of producing reasonable predictions of temperature, particularly in axial profile of all three flames. Both experimental works and numerical simulation showed that increasing the temperature of the combustion air significantly increases the flame temperature.

FACTORS INFLUENCING PREDICTION OF BROMODICHLOROMETHANE (BDCM) IN EXHALED BREATH: FURTHER EVALUATION OF A HUMAN BDCM PBPK MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the predictive capability of a PBPK model is increased when the model is demonstrated to predict multiple pharmacokinetic outcomes from diverse studies under different exposure conditions. We previously showed that our multi-route human BDCM PBPK model adequately (w...

Validating and Optimizing the Effects of Model Progression in Simulation-Based Inquiry Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulder, Yvonne G.; Lazonder, Ard W.; de Jong, Ton; Anjewierden, Anjo; Bollen, Lars

2012-01-01

Model progression denotes the organization of the inquiry learning process in successive phases of increasing complexity. This study investigated the effectiveness of model progression in general, and explored the added value of either broadening or narrowing students' possibilities to change model progression phases. Results showed that…

Novel diindolylmethane derivatives based NLC formulations to improve the oral bioavailability and anticancer effects in triple negative breast cancer

PubMed Central

Godugu, Chandraiah; Doddapaneni, Ravi; Safe, Stephen H.; Singh, Mandip

2017-01-01

The present study demonstrates the promising anticancer effects of novel C-substituted diindolylmethane (DIM) derivatives DIM-10 and DIM-14 in aggressive TNBC models. In vitro studies demonstrated that these compounds possess strong anticancer effects. Caco-2 permeability studies resulted in poor permeability and poor oral bioavailability was demonstrated by pharmacokinetic studies. Nano structured lipid carrier (NLC) formulations were prepared to increase the clinical acceptance of these compounds. Significant increase in oral bioavailability was observed with NLC formulations. Compared to DIM-10, DIM-10 NLC formulation showed increase in Cmax and AUC values by 4.73 and 11.19-folds, respectively. Similar pattern of increase was observed with DIM-14 NLC formulations. In dogs DIM-10 NLC formulations showed an increase of 2.65 and 2.94-fold in Cmax and AUC, respectively. The anticancer studies in MDA-MB-231 orthotopic TNBC models demonstrated significant reduction in tumor volumes in DIM-10 and DIM-14 NLC treated animals. Our studies suggest that NLC formulation of both DIM-10 and 14 is effective in TNBC models. PMID:27586082

Acid-Sensitive Sheddable PEGylated, Mannose-Modified Nanoparticles Increase the Delivery of Betamethasone to Chronic Inflammation Sites in a Mouse Model.

PubMed

O'Mary, Hannah L; Aldayel, Abdulaziz M; Valdes, Solange A; Naguib, Youssef W; Li, Xu; Salvady, Karun; Cui, Zhengrong

2017-06-05

Inflammation is implicated in a host of chronic illnesses. Within these inflamed tissues, the pH of the microenvironment is decreased and immune cells, particularly macrophages, infiltrate the area. Additionally, the vascular integrity of these sites is altered with increased fenestrations between endothelial cells. These distinctive properties may be exploited to enhance targeted delivery of anti-inflammatory therapies. Using a mouse model of chronic inflammation, we previously showed that acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylation increases the distribution and retention of nanoparticles in chronic inflammation sites. Here we demonstrated that surface modification of the acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylated nanoparticles with mannose, a ligand to mannose receptors present in chronic inflammation sites, significantly increases the targeted delivery of the nanoparticles to these areas. Furthermore, we showed that the acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylated, mannose-modified nanoparticles are able to significantly increase the delivery of betamethasone-21-acetate (BA), a model anti-inflammatory compound, to chronic inflammation sites as compared to free BA. These results highlight the ability to engineer formulations to target chronic inflammation sites by exploiting the microenvironment of these regions.

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Nitrate removal in stream ecosystems measured by 15N addition experiments: Total uptake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, R.O.; Tank, J.L.; Sobota, D.J.; Mulholland, P.J.; O'Brien, J. M.; Dodds, W.K.; Webster, J.R.; Valett, H.M.; Poole, G.C.; Peterson, B.J.; Meyer, J.L.; McDowell, W.H.; Johnson, S.L.; Hamilton, S.K.; Grimm, N. B.; Gregory, S.V.; Dahm, Clifford N.; Cooper, L.W.; Ashkenas, L.R.; Thomas, S.M.; Sheibley, R.W.; Potter, J.D.; Niederlehner, B.R.; Johnson, L.T.; Helton, A.M.; Crenshaw, C.M.; Burgin, A.J.; Bernot, M.J.; Beaulieu, J.J.; Arangob, C.P.

2009-01-01

We measured uptake length of 15NO-3 in 72 streams in eight regions across the United States and Puerto Rico to develop quantitative predictive models on controls of NO-3 uptake length. As part of the Lotic Intersite Nitrogen eXperiment II project, we chose nine streams in each region corresponding to natural (reference), suburban-urban, and agricultural land uses. Study streams spanned a range of human land use to maximize variation in NO-3 concentration, geomorphology, and metabolism. We tested a causal model predicting controls on NO-3 uptake length using structural equation modeling. The model included concomitant measurements of ecosystem metabolism, hydraulic parameters, and nitrogen concentration. We compared this structural equation model to multiple regression models which included additional biotic, catchment, and riparian variables. The structural equation model explained 79% of the variation in log uptake length (S Wtot). Uptake length increased with specific discharge (Q/w) and increasing NO-3 concentrations, showing a loss in removal efficiency in streams with high NO-3 concentration. Uptake lengths shortened with increasing gross primary production, suggesting autotrophic assimilation dominated NO-3 removal. The fraction of catchment area as agriculture and suburban-urban land use weakly predicted NO-3 uptake in bivariate regression, and did improve prediction in a set of multiple regression models. Adding land use to the structural equation model showed that land use indirectly affected NO-3 uptake lengths via directly increasing both gross primary production and NO-3 concentration. Gross primary production shortened SWtot, while increasing NO-3 lengthened SWtot resulting in no net effect of land use on NO- 3 removal. ?? 2009.

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Wang, Shugong; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Xia, Youlong

2017-11-01

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

Thinness and obesity: a model of food consumption, health concerns, and social pressure.

PubMed

Dragone, Davide; Savorelli, Luca

2012-01-01

The increasing concern of the policy maker about eating behaviour has focused on the spread of obesity and on the evidence of people dieting despite being underweight. As the latter behaviour is often attributed to the social pressure to be thin, some governments have already taken actions to ban ultra-thin ideals and models. This paper proposes a theoretical framework to assess whether increasing the ideal body weight is socially desirable, both from a welfare and a health point of view. We first show that being underweight and being overweight are possible outcomes of a rational eating model. Then, assuming that people are heterogeneous in their healthy weights but exposed to the same ideal body weight, we show that increasing the thin ideal weight can be welfare improving, but may exacerbate the obesity epidemic. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oral exposure to polystyrene nanoparticles affects iron absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, Gretchen J.; Esch, Mandy B.; Tako, Elad; Southard, Teresa L.; Archer, Shivaun D.; Glahn, Raymond P.; Shuler, Michael L.

2012-04-01

The use of engineered nanoparticles in food and pharmaceuticals is expected to increase, but the impact of chronic oral exposure to nanoparticles on human health remains unknown. Here, we show that chronic and acute oral exposure to polystyrene nanoparticles can influence iron uptake and iron transport in an in vitro model of the intestinal epithelium and an in vivo chicken intestinal loop model. Intestinal cells that are exposed to high doses of nanoparticles showed increased iron transport due to nanoparticle disruption of the cell membrane. Chickens acutely exposed to carboxylated particles (50 nm in diameter) had a lower iron absorption than unexposed or chronically exposed birds. Chronic exposure caused remodelling of the intestinal villi, which increased the surface area available for iron absorption. The agreement between the in vitro and in vivo results suggests that our in vitro intestinal epithelium model is potentially useful for toxicology studies.

Effects of scale and Froude number on the hydraulics of waste stabilization ponds.

PubMed

Vieira, Isabela De Luna; Da Silva, Jhonatan Barbosa; Ide, Carlos Nobuyoshi; Janzen, Johannes Gérson

2018-01-01

This paper presents the findings from a series of computational fluid dynamics simulations to estimate the effect of scale and Froude number on hydraulic performance and effluent pollutant fraction of scaled waste stabilization ponds designed using Froude similarity. Prior to its application, the model was verified by comparing the computational and experimental results of a model scaled pond, showing good agreement and confirming that the model accurately reproduces the hydrodynamics and tracer transport processes. Our results showed that the scale and the interaction between scale and Froude number has an effect on the hydraulics of ponds. At 1:5 scale, the increase of scale increased short-circuiting and decreased mixing. Furthermore, at 1:10 scale, the increase of scale decreased the effluent pollutant fraction. Since the Reynolds effect cannot be ignored, a ratio of Reynolds and Froude numbers was suggested to predict the effluent pollutant fraction for flows with different Reynolds numbers.

Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production.

PubMed

Bonte, Matthijs; Zwolsman, John J G

2010-08-01

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water. Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. PMID:23497171

Global aerosol effects on convective clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till; Stier, Philip

2013-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect cloud properties, and thereby the radiation balance of the planet and the water cycle. The influence of aerosols on clouds is dominated by increase of cloud droplet and ice crystal numbers (CDNC/ICNC) due to enhanced aerosols acting as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. In deep convective clouds this increase in CDNC/ICNC is hypothesised to increase precipitation because of cloud invigoration through enhanced freezing and associated increased latent heat release caused by delayed warm rain formation. Satellite studies robustly show an increase of cloud top height (CTH) and precipitation with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD, as proxy for aerosol amount). To represent aerosol effects and study their influence on convective clouds in the global climate aerosol model ECHAM-HAM, we substitute the standard convection parameterisation, which uses one mean convective cloud for each grid column, with the convective cloud field model (CCFM), which simulates a spectrum of convective clouds, each with distinct values of radius, mixing ratios, vertical velocity, height and en/detrainment. Aerosol activation and droplet nucleation in convective updrafts at cloud base is the primary driver for microphysical aerosol effects. To produce realistic estimates for vertical velocity at cloud base we use an entraining dry parcel sub cloud model which is triggered by perturbations of sensible and latent heat at the surface. Aerosol activation at cloud base is modelled with a mechanistic, Köhler theory based, scheme, which couples the aerosols to the convective microphysics. Comparison of relationships between CTH and AOD, and precipitation and AOD produced by this novel model and satellite based estimates show general agreement. Through model experiments and analysis of the model cloud processes we are able to investigate the main drivers for the relationship between CTH / precipitation and AOD.

Competing effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate change on water availability in semi-arid India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sishodia, R. P.; Shukla, S.

2017-12-01

India, a global leader in groundwater use (250 km3/yr), is experiencing groundwater depletion. There has been a 130-fold increase in number of irrigation wells since 1960. Anticipated future increase in groundwater demand is likely to exacerbate the water availability in the semi-arid regions of India. Depending on the direction of change, future climate change may either worsen or enhance the water availability. This study uses an integrated hydrologic modeling approach (MIKE SHE MIKE 11) to compare and combine the effects of future (2040-2069) increased groundwater withdrawals and climate change on surface and groundwater flows and availability for an agricultural watershed in semi-arid south India. Modeling results showed that increased groundwater withdrawals in the future resulted in reduced surface flows (25%) and increased frequency and duration (90 days/yr) of well drying. In contrast, projected future increase in rainfall (7-43%) under the changed climate showed increased groundwater recharge (15-67%) and surface flows (9-155%). Modeling results suggest that the positive effects of climate change may enhance the water availability in this semi-arid region of India. However, in combination with increased withdrawals, climate change was shown to increase the well drying and reduce the water availability especially during dry years. A combination of management options such as flood to drip conversion, energy subsidy reductions and water storage can support increased groundwater irrigated area in the future while mitigating the well drying. A cost-benefit analysis showed that dispersed water storage and flood to drip conversion can be highly cost-effective in this semi-arid region. The study results suggest that the government and management policies need to be focused towards an integrated management of demand and supply to create a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in the region.

Sensitivity Studies for In-Situ Automated Tape Placement of Thermoplastic Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, Robert C.; Marchello, Joseph M.

2004-01-01

This modeling effort seeks to improve the interlaminate bond strength of thermoplastic carbon composites produced by the in-situ automated tape placement (ATP) process. An existing high productivity model is extended to lower values of the Peclet number that correspond to the present operating conditions of the Langley ATP robot. (The Peclet number is the dimensionless ratio of inertial to diffusive heat transfer.) In sensitivity studies, all of the process and material parameters are individually varied. The model yields the corresponding variations in the effective bonding time (EBT) referred to the glass transition temperature. According to reptation theory, the interlaminate bond strength after wetting occurs is proportional to the one-fourth power of EBT. The model also computes the corresponding variations in the thermal input power (TIP) and the mass and volumetric process rates. Process studies show that a 10 percent increase in the consolidation length results in a 20 percent increase in EBT and a 5 percent increase in TIP. A surprising result is that a 10 K decrease in the tooling temperature results in a 25 percent increase in EBT and an 8 percent increase in TIP. Material studies show that a 10 K decrease in glass transition temperature results in an 8 percent increase in EBT and a 8 percent decrease in TIP. A 20 K increase in polymer degradation temperature results in a 23 percent increase in EBT with no change in TIP.

"Negative capacitance" in resistor-ferroelectric and ferroelectric-dielectric networks: Apparent or intrinsic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Atanu K.; Datta, Suman; Gupta, Sumeet K.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we describe and analytically substantiate an alternate explanation for the negative capacitance (NC) effect in ferroelectrics (FE). We claim that the NC effect previously demonstrated in resistance-ferroelectric (R-FE) networks does not necessarily validate the existence of "S" shaped relation between polarization and voltage (according to Landau theory). In fact, the NC effect can be explained without invoking the "S"-shaped behavior of FE. We employ an analytical model for FE (Miller model) in which the steady state polarization strictly increases with the voltage across the FE and show that despite the inherent positive FE capacitance, reduction in FE voltage with the increase in its charge is possible in a R-FE network as well as in a ferroelectric-dielectric (FE-DE) stack. This can be attributed to a large increase in FE capacitance near the coercive voltage coupled with the polarization lag with respect to the electric field. Under certain conditions, these two factors yield transient NC effect. We analytically derive conditions for NC effect in R-FE and FE-DE networks. We couple our analysis with extensive simulations to explain the evolution of NC effect. We also compare the trends predicted by the aforementioned Miller model with Landau-Khalatnikov (L-K) model (static negative capacitance due to "S"-shape behaviour) and highlight the differences between the two approaches. First, with an increase in external resistance in the R-FE network, NC effect shows a non-monotonic behavior according to Miller model but increases according to L-K model. Second, with the increase in ramp-rate of applied voltage in the FE-DE stack, NC effect increases according to Miller model but decreases according to L-K model. These results unveil a possible way to experimentally validate the actual reason of NC effect in FE.

Prolonged diet induced obesity has minimal effects towards brain pathology in mouse model of cerebral amyloid angiopathy: implications for studying obesity-brain interactions in mice.

PubMed

Zhang, Le; Dasuri, Kalavathi; Fernandez-Kim, Sun-Ok; Bruce-Keller, Annadora J; Freeman, Linnea R; Pepping, Jennifer K; Beckett, Tina L; Murphy, M Paul; Keller, Jeffrey N

2013-09-01

Cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) occurs in nearly every individual with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Down's syndrome, and is the second largest cause of intracerebral hemorrhage. Mouse models of CAA have demonstrated evidence for increased gliosis contributing to CAA pathology. Nearly two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese, with little known about the effects of obesity on the brain, although increasingly the vasculature appears to be a principle target of obesity effects on the brain. In the current study we describe for the first time whether diet induced obesity (DIO) modulates glial reactivity, amyloid levels, and inflammatory signaling in a mouse model of CAA. In these studies we identify surprisingly that DIO does not significantly increase Aβ levels, astrocyte (GFAP) or microglial (IBA-1) gliosis in the CAA mice. However, within the hippocampal gyri a localized increase in reactive microglia were increased in the CA1 and stratum oriens relative to CAA mice on a control diet. DIO was observed to selectively increase IL-6 in CAA mice, with IL-1β and TNF-α not increased in CAA mice in response to DIO. Taken together, these data show that prolonged DIO has only modest effects towards Aβ in a mouse model of CAA, but appears to elevate some localized microglial reactivity within the hippocampal gyri and selective markers of inflammatory signaling. These data are consistent with the majority of the existing literature in other models of Aβ pathology, which surprisingly show a mixed profile of DIO effects towards pathological processes in mouse models of neurodegenerative disease. The importance for considering the potential impact of ceiling effects in pathology within mouse models of Aβ pathogenesis, and the current experimental limitations for DIO in mice to fully replicate metabolic dysfunction present in human obesity, are discussed. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Animal Models of Disease. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Randomized Trial of a Gatekeeper Program for Suicide Prevention: 1-year Impact on Secondary School Staff

PubMed Central

Wyman, Peter A.; Brown, C Hendricks; Inman, Jeff; Cross, Wendi; Schmeelk-Cone, Karen; Guo, Jing; Pena, Juan B.

2009-01-01

Gatekeeper-training programs, designed to increase identification and referral of suicidal individuals, are widespread but largely untested. A group-based randomized trial with 32 schools examined impact of QPR (Question, Persuade, Refer) training on a stratified random sample of 249 staff with one-year average follow-up. To test QPR impact, we introduced and contrasted two models of gatekeeper-training effects in a population: Gatekeeper Surveillance and Gatekeeper Communication. Intent-to-treat analyses showed that training increased self-reported knowledge (ES 0.41) and appraisals of efficacy (ES 1.22) and service access (ES 1.07). Training effects varied dramatically. Appraisals increased most for staff with lowest baseline appraisals, and suicide identification behaviors increased most for staff already communicating with students about suicide and distress. Consistent with the Communication model, increased knowledge and appraisals were not sufficient to increase suicide identification behaviors. Also consistent with the Communication model were results from 2,059 8th and 10th graders surveyed showing that fewer with prior suicide attempts endorsed talking to adults about distress. Skill training for staff serving as ‘natural-gatekeepers’ plus interventions that modify students’ help-seeking behaviors are recommended to supplement universal gatekeeper training. PMID:18229988

Mobile phone use during driving: Effects on speed and effectiveness of driver compensatory behaviour.

PubMed

Choudhary, Pushpa; Velaga, Nagendra R

2017-09-01

This study analysed and modelled the effects of conversation and texting (each with two difficulty levels) on driving performance of Indian drivers in terms of their mean speed and accident avoiding abilities; and further explored the relationship between speed reduction strategy of the drivers and their corresponding accident frequency. 100 drivers of three different age groups (young, mid-age and old-age) participated in the simulator study. Two sudden events of Indian context: unexpected crossing of pedestrians and joining of parked vehicles from road side, were simulated for estimating the accident probabilities. Generalized linear mixed models approach was used for developing linear regression models for mean speed and binary logistic regression models for accident probability. The results of the models showed that the drivers significantly compensated the increased workload by reducing their mean speed by 2.62m/s and 5.29m/s in the presence of conversation and texting tasks respectively. The logistic models for accident probabilities showed that the accident probabilities increased by 3 and 4 times respectively when the drivers were conversing or texting on a phone during driving. Further, the relationship between the speed reduction patterns and their corresponding accident frequencies showed that all the drivers compensated differently; but, among all the drivers, only few drivers, who compensated by reducing the speed by 30% or more, were able to fully offset the increased accident risk associated with the phone use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Petascale computation performance of lightweight multiscale cardiac models using hybrid programming models.

PubMed

Pope, Bernard J; Fitch, Blake G; Pitman, Michael C; Rice, John J; Reumann, Matthias

2011-01-01

Future multiscale and multiphysics models must use the power of high performance computing (HPC) systems to enable research into human disease, translational medical science, and treatment. Previously we showed that computationally efficient multiscale models will require the use of sophisticated hybrid programming models, mixing distributed message passing processes (e.g. the message passing interface (MPI)) with multithreading (e.g. OpenMP, POSIX pthreads). The objective of this work is to compare the performance of such hybrid programming models when applied to the simulation of a lightweight multiscale cardiac model. Our results show that the hybrid models do not perform favourably when compared to an implementation using only MPI which is in contrast to our results using complex physiological models. Thus, with regards to lightweight multiscale cardiac models, the user may not need to increase programming complexity by using a hybrid programming approach. However, considering that model complexity will increase as well as the HPC system size in both node count and number of cores per node, it is still foreseeable that we will achieve faster than real time multiscale cardiac simulations on these systems using hybrid programming models.

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

2017-11-01

This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

2014-12-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

2015-04-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

2014-12-01

Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently explained by the models if the anomalies are caused in the low temperature regions (e.g. spring in Northern Asia). However, water-driven or radiation-driven GPP anomalies lacks consistent explanation among models. Therefore, terrestrial carbon cycle models require improvement of the sensitivity of climate anomalies to carbon cycles.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Associations between polymorphisms of the ADIPOQ gene and hypertension risk: a systematic and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Fan, Weina; Qu, Xiaowei; Li, Jing; Wang, Xingning; Bai, Yanping; Cao, Qingmei; Ma, Liqun; Zhou, Xiaoyao; Zhu, Wei; Liu, Wei; Ma, Qiang

2017-01-01

ADIPOQ gene polymorphisms have been indicated to be associated with hypertension; however, published studies have reported inconsistent results. Eligible studies were retrieved by searching the PubMed, Embase and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. The case group consisted of patients with hypertension, and the control group consisted of subjects with normal blood pressure. Based on eleven published articles, involving 4837 cases and 5618 controls, the pooled results from rs2241766 polymorphism showed increased risk in the allelic model (G VS T: OR = 1.16, 95%CI = 1.06–1.27), recessive model (GG VS GT + TT: OR = 1.34, 95%CI = 1.10–1.63), dominant model (GG + GT VS TT: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.02–1.30) and homozygote model (GG VS TT: OR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.21–1.69). In addition, rs266729 polymorphism showed increased risk for hypertension in the recessive model (GG VS GC + CC: OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.02–2.01). In the Caucasian subgroup, rs1501299 polymorphism showed decreased risk of hypertension in the allelic model (T VS G: OR = 0.75, 95%CI = 0.58–0.97), dominant model (TT + TG VS GG: OR = 0.83, 95%CI = 0.71–0.98) and heterozygote model (TG VS GG: OR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.68–0.99). The rs2241766 polymorphism was associated with a significant increase in hypertension risk based on our analysis. Moreover, an increased risk of rs266729 in hypertension patients was also detected. Our meta-analysis suggests that the rs1501299 polymorphism may play a protective role in hypertension in Caucasian subgroup; however, this finding requires further study. PMID:28181566

A wind-tunnel investigation of a B-52 model flutter suppression system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redd, L. T.; Gilman, J., Jr.; Cooley, D. E.; Sevart, F. D.

1974-01-01

Flutter modeling techniques have been successfully extended to the difficult case of the active suppression of flutter. The demonstration was conducted in a transonic dynamics tunnel using a 1/30 scale, elastic, dynamic model of a Boeing B-52 control configured vehicle. The results from the study show that with the flutter suppression system operating there is a substantial increase in the damping associated with the critical flutter mode. The results also show good correlation between the damping characteristics of the model and the aircraft.

Modelling the fear effect in predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoying; Zanette, Liana; Zou, Xingfu

2016-11-01

A recent field manipulation on a terrestrial vertebrate showed that the fear of predators alone altered anti-predator defences to such an extent that it greatly reduced the reproduction of prey. Because fear can evidently affect the populations of terrestrial vertebrates, we proposed a predator-prey model incorporating the cost of fear into prey reproduction. Our mathematical analyses show that high levels of fear (or equivalently strong anti-predator responses) can stabilize the predator-prey system by excluding the existence of periodic solutions. However, relatively low levels of fear can induce multiple limit cycles via subcritical Hopf bifurcations, leading to a bi-stability phenomenon. Compared to classic predator-prey models which ignore the cost of fear where Hopf bifurcations are typically supercritical, Hopf bifurcations in our model can be both supercritical and subcritical by choosing different sets of parameters. We conducted numerical simulations to explore the relationships between fear effects and other biologically related parameters (e.g. birth/death rate of adult prey), which further demonstrate the impact that fear can have in predator-prey interactions. For example, we found that under the conditions of a Hopf bifurcation, an increase in the level of fear may alter the direction of Hopf bifurcation from supercritical to subcritical when the birth rate of prey increases accordingly. Our simulations also show that the prey is less sensitive in perceiving predation risk with increasing birth rate of prey or increasing death rate of predators, but demonstrate that animals will mount stronger anti-predator defences as the attack rate of predators increases.

Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.

Hydroclimatic trends in simulations over the CORDEX North America region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, Raymond; Groisman, Pavel; Daniel, Ariele; Schillerberg, Tayler

2015-04-01

An increase in the occurrence of heavy precipitation has been one of the most pronounced climate change signals for the central United States. We study this trend by using the RegCM4 regional climate model to dynamically downscale CMIP5 global projections for 1950-2099 over the CORDEX North America domain. We examine the robustness of the results by driving the regional model with two different global models, by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using different convective parameterizations in RegCM4. The global models sample the range of climate sensitivity in CMIP5: HadGEM2-ES has the highest equilibrium climate sensitivity of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowest sensitivities. RegCM4 results show increases in heavy precipitation (> 50 mm/day) over the central United States for the period 1951-2005 similar to observed trends. This trend is predicted to accelerate so that by the end of the 21st century incidence of heavy precipitation increases by a factor of 2 to 3. The trend is robust in that it is produced regardless of the driving global model or the configuration of the regional model. Results also show a modest increase in the number of dry days and a marked increase in the number of long runs of dry days (16 or more consecutive dry days). The combination of heavier events and longer runs of dry days has implications for sectors such as agriculture and water quality. This research was sponsored by USDA NIFA under the Earth System Modeling program and as part of a regional collaborative project.

A game dynamic model for delayer strategies in vaccinating behaviour for pediatric infectious diseases.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Bauch, C T

2010-12-07

Several studies have found that some parents delay the age at which their children receive pediatric vaccines due to perception of higher vaccine risk at the recommended age of vaccination. This has been particularly apparently during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella scare in the United Kingdom. Under a voluntary vaccination policy, vaccine coverage in certain age groups is a potentially complex interplay between vaccinating behaviour, disease dynamics, and age-specific risk factors. Here, we construct an age-structured game dynamic model, where individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to imitation dynamics depending on age-dependent disease prevalence and perceived risk of vaccination. Individuals may be timely vaccinators, delayers, or non-vaccinators. The model exhibits multiple equilibria and a broad range of possible dynamics. For certain parameter regimes, the proportion of timely vaccinators and delayers oscillate in an anti-phase fashion in response to oscillations in infection prevalence. Under an exogenous change to the perceived risk of vaccination as might occur during a vaccine scare, the model can also capture an increase in delayer strategists similar in magnitude to that observed during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine scare in the United Kingdom. Our model also shows that number of delayers steadily increases with increasing severity of the scare, whereas it saturates to specific value with increases in duration of the scare. Finally, by comparing the model dynamics with and without the option of a delayer strategy, we show that adding a third delayer strategy can have a stabilizing effect on model dynamics. In an era where individual choice--rather than accessibility--is becoming an increasingly important determinant of vaccine uptake, more infectious disease models may need to use game theory or related techniques to determine vaccine uptake. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Baroclinic mixing of potential vorticity as the principal sharpening mechanism for the extratropical Tropopause Inversion Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shu Meir; Geller, Marvin A.

2016-09-01

Previous works have shown that a dry, idealized general circulation model could produce many features of the extratropical Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL). In particular, the following have been shown, but no explanations were given for these results. (1) A sharper extratropical TIL resulted more from increased horizontal resolution than from increased vertical resolution. (2) If the Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient was varied, the annual variation of the extratropical TIL found in observations could be reproduced. (3) The extratropical TIL altitude showed excellent correlation with the upper tropospheric relative vorticity, as had been previously proposed. (4) Increased horizontal model resolutions led to extratropical TILs that were at lower altitudes. We show that these conclusions follow from baroclinic mixing of high stratospheric potential vorticity into the troposphere being the principal sharpening mechanism for the extratropical TIL and the increased baroclinic activity occurring in higher horizontal resolution models. We furthermore suggest that the distance from the jet exerts a greater influence on the height and sharpness of the extratropical TIL than does the upper tropospheric relative vorticity, and this accounts for the annual behavior of the extratropical TIL found in observations and reproduced with a dry, mechanistic, global model.

Does moving up a food chain increase aggregation in parasites?

PubMed Central

Lester, R. J. G.

2016-01-01

General laws in ecological parasitology are scarce. Here, we evaluate data on numbers of fish parasites published by over 200 authors to determine whether acquiring parasites via prey is associated with an increase in parasite aggregation. Parasite species were grouped taxonomically to produce 20 or more data points per group as far as possible. Most parasites that remained at one trophic level were less aggregated than those that had passed up a food chain. We use a stochastic model to show that high parasite aggregation in predators can be solely the result of the accumulation of parasites in their prey. The model is further developed to show that a change in the predators feeding behaviour with age may further increase parasite aggregation. PMID:27170651

Finite element model of the temperature increase in excised porcine cadaver iris during direct illumination by femtosecond laser pulses

PubMed Central

Sun, Hui; Kurtz, Ronald M.

2012-01-01

Abstract. In order to model the thermal effect of laser exposure of the iris during laser corneal surgery, we simulated the temperature increase in porcine cadaver iris. The simulation data for the 60 kHz FS60 Laser showed that the temperature increased up to 1.23°C and 2.45°C (at laser pulse energy 1 and 2 µJ, respectively) by the 24 second procedure time. Calculated temperature profiles show good agreement with data obtained from ex vivo experiments using porcine cadaver iris. Simulation results of different types of femtosecond lasers indicate that the Laser in situ keratomileusis procedure does not present a safety hazard to the iris. PMID:22894525

Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

PubMed

Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

2018-04-17

This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

Longer you play, the more hostile you feel: examination of first person shooter video games and aggression during video game play.

PubMed

Barlett, Christopher P; Harris, Richard J; Baldassaro, Ross

2007-01-01

This study investigated the effects of video game play on aggression. Using the General Aggression Model, as applied to video games by Anderson and Bushman, [2002] this study measured physiological arousal, state hostility, and how aggressively participants would respond to three hypothetical scenarios. In addition, this study measured each of these variables multiple times to gauge how aggression would change with increased video game play. Results showed a significant increase from baseline in hostility and aggression (based on two of the three story stems), which is consistent with the General Aggression Model. This study adds to the existing literature on video games and aggression by showing that increased play of a violent first person shooter video game can significantly increase aggression from baseline. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-11-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

2014-05-01

Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert knowledge (e.g. unsaturated storage capacity of hillslopes should exceed the one of wetlands) and anecdotal hydrological information (e.g. long-term estimates of actual evaporation obtained from the Budyko framework and long-term estimates of baseflow contribution) to ensure that the model is well behaved with respect to the modeller's perception of the system. A total of 11 model set-ups with increased complexity and an increased number of realism constraints was tested. It could be shown that in spite of largely unchanged calibration performance, compared to the simplest set-up, the most complex model set-up (12 parameters, 8 constraints) exhibited significantly increased performance in the validation period while uncertainty did not increase. In addition, the most complex model was characterized by a substantially increased skill to reproduce all 20 signatures, indicating a more suitable representation of the system. The results suggest that a model, "well" constrained by 4 calibration objective functions may still be an inadequate representation of the system and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by realism constraints, can indeed increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce a range of hydrological signatures, but that it does not necessarily result in increased uncertainty. The results also strongly illustrate the need to move away from automated model calibration towards a more general expert-knowledge driven strategy of constraining models if a certain level of model consistency is to be achieved.

Optical and electrical properties of Mn1.56Co0.96Ni0.48O4 thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y. Q.; Huang, Z. M.; Hou, Y.; Wu, J.; Chu, J. H.

2013-12-01

Mn1.56Co0.96Ni0.48O4 (MCN) films with different layers have been prepared on Al2O3 substrate by chemical solution deposition method. The microstructures, optical and electrical properties of the films are investigated. X-ray diffraction and microstructure analyses show good crystallization and both the crystalline quality and the grain size are improved with the increasing thickness of the films. Mid-infrared optical properties of MCN films have been investigated using transmission spectra. The results show the red shift of absorption with the increasing film thickness and the energy gap Eg decrease from 0.6422 eV to 0.6354 eV. All the MCN films show an exponential decrease in the resistivity with increasing temperature within the measured range. The temperature dependence resistivity can be described by the small polarons hopping model. Using this model, the characteristic temperature T0 and activation energy E of the MCN films were derived. With the film thickness increase, the T0 and E of the MCN films increase. The calculated room temperature coefficient of resistance (TCR) of MCN film with 100 layers is -3.5% K-1. The MCN films showed appropriate resistance and high value of TCR, these advantages make them very preponderant for thermal sensors.

Thermal conductivity anisotropy of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Youngmin; Keehm, Youngseuk; Shin, Sang Ho

2013-04-01

The interior heat of the lithosphere of the Earth is mainly transferred by conduction that depends on thermal conductivity of rocks. Many sedimentary and metamorphic rocks have thermal conductivity anisotropy, i.e. heat is preferentially transferred in the direction parallel to the bedding and foliation of these rocks. Deming (JGR, 1994) proposed an empirical relationship between K(perp) and anisotropy (K(par)/K(perp)) using 89 measurements on rock samples from literatures. In Deming's model, thermal conductivity is almost isotropic for K(perp) > 4 W/mK, but anisotropy is exponentially increasing with decreasing K(perp), with final anisotropy of ~2.5 at K(perp) < 1.0 W/mK. However, Davis et al. (JGR, 2007) argued that there is little evidence for Deming's suggestion that thermal conductivity anisotropy of all rocks increases systematically to about 2.5 for rocks with low thermal conductivity. Davis et al. insisted that Deming's increase in anisotropy for 1 < K(perp) < 4 W/mK with decreasing K(perp) could be due to the fractures filled with air or water, which causes thermal conductivity anisotropy. To test Deming's suggestion and Davis et al.'s argument on thermal conductivity anisotropy, we measured thermal conductivity parallel (K(par)) and perpendicular (K(perp)) to bedding or foliation and performed analytical & numerical modeling. Our measurements on 53 rock samples show the anisotropy range from 0.79 to 1.36 for 1.84 < K(prep) < 4.06 W/mK. Analytical models show that anisotropy can increase or stay the same at the range of 1 < K(perp) < 4 W/mK. Numerical modeling for gneiss shows that anisotropy ranges 1.21 to 1.36 for 2.5 < K(perp) < 4.8 W/mK. Another numerical modeling with interbedded coal layers in high thermal conductivity rocks (3.5 W/mK) shows anisotropy of 1.87 when K(perp) is 1.7 W/mK. Finally, numerical modeling with fractures indicates that the fractures does not seem to affect thermal conductivity anisotropy significantly. In conclusion, our preliminary results imply that thermal conductivity anisotropy can increase or stay at low value in the range of 1.0 < K(perp) < 4.0 W/mK. Both cases are shown to be possible through lab measurements and analytical & numerical modeling.

Seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated climate factors in 4 provinces in Vietnam from 1994 to 2013.

PubMed

Lee, Hu Suk; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Nam, Vu Sinh; Lee, Mihye; Won, Sungho; Duc, Phuc Pham; Grace, Delia

2017-03-20

In Vietnam, dengue fever (DF) is still a leading cause of hospitalization. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonality and association with climate factors (temperature and precipitation) on the incidences of DF in four provinces where the highest incidence rates were observed from 1994 to 2013 in Vietnam. Incidence rates (per 100,000) were calculated on a monthly basis from during the study period. The seasonal-decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) was used in order to assess the trend and seasonality of DF. In addition, a seasonal cycle subseries (SCS) plot and univariate negative binomial regression (NBR) model were used to evaluate the monthly variability with statistical analysis. Lastly, a generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to assess the relationship between monthly incidence rates and weather factors (temperature and precipitation). We found that increased incidence rates were observed in the second half of each year (from May through December) which is the rainy season in each province. In Hanoi, the final model showed that 1 °C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 13% in the monthly incidence rate of DF. In Khanh Hoa, the final model displayed that 1 °C increase in temperature corresponded to an increase of 17% while 100 mm increase in precipitation corresponded to an increase of 11% of DF incidence rate. For Ho Chi Minh City, none of variables were significant in the model. In An Giang, the final model showed that 100 mm increase of precipitation in the preceding and same months corresponded to an increase of 30% and 22% of DF incidence rate. Our findings provide insight into understanding the seasonal pattern and associated climate risk factors.

Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

2017-01-01

A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be considered by the policy makers within a wider range of climate uncertainties.

Dependence of particle volume fraction on sound velocity and attenuation of EPDM composites.

PubMed

Kim, K S; Lee, K I; Kim, H Y; Yoon, S W; Hong, S H

2007-05-01

The sound velocity and the attenuation coefficient of EPDM (Ethylene-propylene Diene Monomer) composites incorporated with Silicon Carbide particles (SiCp's) of various volume fractions (0-40%) were experimentally and theoretically investigated. For the experiment a through-transmission technique was used. For the theoretical prediction, some mechanical property models such as Reuss model and Coherent Potential Approximation (CPA) model etc. were employed. The experimental results showed that the sound velocity decreased with the increase of the SiCp volume fraction up to 30% and then increased with the 40 vol% specimen. The attenuation coefficient was increased with the increasing SiCp volume fractions. The modified Reuss model with a longitudinal elastic modulus predicted most well the experimental sound velocity and elastic modulus results.

Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Fang; Zeng, Ning; Asrar, Ghassem; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles D.; Poulter, Ben; Rafique, Rashid; Sitch, Stephen; Shu, Shijie; Stocker, Beni; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sonke

2016-09-01

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the strongest control - with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global FTA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (R2 = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.

Microbial modeling of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris CRA 7152 growth in orange juice with nisin added.

PubMed

Peña, Wilmer Edgard Luera; de Massaguer, Pilar Rodriguez

2006-08-01

The adaptation time of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris CRA 7152 in orange juice was determined as a response to pH (3 to 5.8), temperature (20 to 54 degrees C), soluble solids concentration ((o)Brix; 11 to 19 (o)Brix), and nisin concentration (0 to 70 IU/ ml) effects. A four-factor central composite rotational design was used. Viable microorganisms were enumerated by plating on K medium (pH 3.7). Two primary models were used to represent growth and adaptation time. A second-order polynomial model was applied to analyze the effects of factors. Results showed that the Baranyi and Roberts model was better than the modified Gompertz model, considering the determination coefficient (R2) for experimental data description. Inhibition of bacteria can be obtained through several studied combinations for at least 47 days of storage. The shortest period of adaptation was observed between 37 to 45 degrees C, with pHs between 4 and 5, yet the longest periods of adaptation could be obtained around 20 degrees C with pHs close to 3.0. Statistical analysis of the quadratic model showed that the adaptation time increased as temperature or pH decreased, and as nisin concentration or soluble solids increased. The model showed that adaptation time has a minimum value for juice without nisin added, with 13.5% soluble solids, pH 5.0, and incubated at 43.8 degrees C. The statistical parameters that validated this model were an R2 of 0.816, a bias factor of 0.96, and an accuracy factor of 1.14. Manipulation of more than one factor, as well as the use of an antimicrobial agent, can be an alternative to preventing the development of A. acidoterrestris in orange juice, thus contributing to increased orange juice shelf life.

Effects of recruiting midwives into family physician program on the percentage of low birth weight (LBW) infants in rural areas of Kurdistan

PubMed Central

Hajizadeh, Shayesteh; Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Simbar, Masoumeh; Farzadfar, Farshad

2017-01-01

Background: LBW is an important factor that can affect infant mortality and represents an index of economic and social development. It is expected that an increase in the density of midwives attending family physician programs will lead to a decrease in LBW in health centers. This study aimed to compare the percentage of LBW infants before and after the implementation of the family physician program in health centers with and without an increase in midwives density. Methods: This cross-sectional study compared the percentage of LBW infants before and after the implementation of family physician programs in rural health centers with and without changes in midwives density in Kurdistan. In this study, we included 668 mothers of 2-month-old children and administered structured interviews in 2005 and 2013. Data were analyzed using the difference-indifferences and the Matchit statistical models. Results: The Matchit model showed a significant average percentage increase 0.08 (0.006–0.17) in LBW infants born between 2005 and 2013 in health centers where the density of midwives increased compared with those where it remained unchanged. The difference-in-differences model showed that the odds ratio of LBW infants is increased by more than twice among participants who had a history of caesarean section. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that an increase in the density of midwives in a family physician program did not have an impact on reducing the percentage of LBW infants born between 2005 and 2013, in health centers where the density of midwives augmented compared to those where it remained unaltered; it indicated that the increase in the density of midwives alone was not efficient. On the other hand, the results of our study show an increase in the risk of infants born at a LBW due to caesarean section. It is recommended that obstetricians and gynecologists must strictly control pregnancies and avoid unnecessary termination of pregnancy

Modeling the effect of dune sorting on the river long profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom, A.

2012-12-01

River dunes, which occur in low slope sand bed and sand-gravel bed rivers, generally show a downward coarsening pattern due to grain flows down their avalanche lee faces. These grain flows cause coarse particles to preferentially deposit at lower elevations of the lee face, while fines show a preference for its upper elevations. Before considering the effect of this dune sorting mechanism on the river long profile, let us first have a look at some general trends along the river profile. Tributaries increasing the river's water discharge in streamwise direction also cause a streamwise increase in flow depth. As under subcritical conditions mean dune height generally increases with increasing flow depth, the dune height shows a streamwise increase, as well. This means that also the standard deviation of bedform height increases in streamwise direction, as in earlier work it was found that the standard deviation of bedform height linearly increases with an increasing mean value of bedform height. As a result of this streamwise increase in standard deviation of dune height, the above-mentioned dune sorting then results in a loss of coarse particles to the lower elevations of the bed that are less and even rarely exposed to the flow. This loss of coarse particles to lower elevations thus increases the rate of fining in streamwise direction. As finer material is more easily transported downstream than coarser material, a smaller bed slope is required to transport the same amount of sediment downstream. This means that dune sorting adds to river profile concavity, compared to the combined effect of abrasion, selective transport and tributaries. A Hirano-type mass conservation model is presented that deals with dune sorting. The model includes two active layers: a bedform layer representing the sediment in the bedforms and a coarse layer representing the coarse and less mobile sediment underneath migrating bedforms. The exposure of the coarse layer is governed by the rate of sediment supply from upstream. By definition the sum of the exposure of both layers equals unity. The model accounts for vertical sediment fluxes due to grain flows down the bedform lee face and the formation of a less mobile coarse layer. The model with its vertical sediment fluxes is validated against earlier flume experiments. It deals well with the transition between a plane bed and a bedform-dominated bed. Applying the model to field scale confirms that dune sorting increases river profile concavity.

Impacts of ethanol fuel level on emissions of regulated and unregulated pollutants from a fleet of gasoline light-duty vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karavalakis, Georgios; Durbin, Thomas; Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.

The study investigated the impact of ethanol blends on criteria emissions (THC, NMHC, CO, NOx), greenhouse gas (CO2), and a suite of unregulated pollutants in a fleet of gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles. The vehicles ranged in model year from 1984 to 2007 and included one Flexible Fuel Vehicle (FFV). Emission and fuel consumption measurements were performed in duplicate or triplicate over the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycle using a chassis dynamometer for four fuels in each of seven vehicles. The test fuels included a CARB phase 2 certification fuel with 11% MTBE content, a CARB phase 3 certification fuel withmore » a 5.7% ethanol content, and E10, E20, E50, and E85 fuels. In most cases, THC and NMHC emissions were lower with the ethanol blends, while the use of E85 resulted in increases of THC and NMHC for the FFV. CO emissions were lower with ethanol blends for all vehicles and significantly decreased for earlier model vehicles. Results for NOx emissions were mixed, with some older vehicles showing increases with increasing ethanol level, while other vehicles showed either no impact or a slight, but not statistically significant, decrease. CO2 emissions did not show any significant trends. Fuel economy showed decreasing trends with increasing ethanol content in later model vehicles. There was also a consistent trend of increasing acetaldehyde emissions with increasing ethanol level, but other carbonyls did not show strong trends. The use of E85 resulted in significantly higher formaldehyde and acetaldehyde emissions than the specification fuels or other ethanol blends. BTEX and 1,3-butadiene emissions were lower with ethanol blends compared to the CARB 2 fuel, and were almost undetectable from the E85 fuel. The largest contribution to total carbonyls and other toxics was during the cold-start phase of FTP.« less

On the urban land-surface impact on climate over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszar, Peter; Halenka, Tomas; Belda, Michal; Zemankova, Katerina; Zak, Michal

2014-05-01

For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate over central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM) for urban and suburban land surface. This can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface processes on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to -0,6 m s-1 and both increases and decreases in summer depending the location with respect to cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 ms-1). Urban surfaces significantly reduce evaporation and thus the humidity over the surface. This impacts in our simulations the summer precipitation rate showing decrease over cities up to - 2 mm day-1. We further showed, that significant temperature increases are not limited to the urban canopy layer but spawn the whole boundary layer. Above that, a small but statistically significant temperature decrease is modeled. The comparison with observational data showed significant improvement in modeling the monthly surface temperatures in summer and the models better describe the diurnal temperature variation reducing the afternoon and evening bias due to the UHI development, which was not captured by the model if one does not apply the urban parameterization. Sensitivity experiments were carried out as well to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs, anthropogenic heat release etc. and showed that the results are rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts the results only slightly (mainly temperature, ZPBL and wind velocity). Further, the important conclusion is that statistically significant impacts are modeled not only over large urbanized areas (cities), but the influence of cities is evident over remote rural areas as well with minor or without any urban surfaces. We show that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant influence of surrounding cities and the influence of the minor local urban surface coverage.

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Doherty, Sarah; Fettweis, Xavier; Alexander, Patrick; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-01-01

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

The Equivalence of Regression Models Using Difference Scores and Models Using Separate Scores for Each Informant: Implications for the Study of Informant Discrepancies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laird, Robert D.; Weems, Carl F.

2011-01-01

Research on informant discrepancies has increasingly utilized difference scores. This article demonstrates the statistical equivalence of regression models using difference scores (raw or standardized) and regression models using separate scores for each informant to show that interpretations should be consistent with both models. First,…

The Effect of an Extreme and Prolonged Population Bottleneck on Patterns of Deleterious Variation: Insights from the Greenlandic Inuit.

PubMed

Pedersen, Casper-Emil T; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Grarup, Niels; Bjerregaard, Peter; Hansen, Torben; Siegismund, Hans R; Moltke, Ida; Albrechtsen, Anders

2017-02-01

The genetic consequences of population bottlenecks on patterns of deleterious genetic variation in human populations are of tremendous interest. Based on exome sequencing of 18 Greenlandic Inuit we show that the Inuit have undergone a severe ∼20,000-year-long bottleneck. This has led to a markedly more extreme distribution of allele frequencies than seen for any other human population tested to date, making the Inuit the perfect population for investigating the effect of a bottleneck on patterns of deleterious variation. When comparing proxies for genetic load that assume an additive effect of deleterious alleles, the Inuit show, at most, a slight increase in load compared to European, East Asian, and African populations. Specifically, we observe <4% increase in the number of derived deleterious alleles in the Inuit. In contrast, proxies for genetic load under a recessive model suggest that the Inuit have a significantly higher load (20% increase or more) compared to other less bottlenecked human populations. Forward simulations under realistic models of demography support our empirical findings, showing up to a 6% increase in the genetic load for the Inuit population across all models of dominance. Further, the Inuit population carries fewer deleterious variants than other human populations, but those that are present tend to be at higher frequency than in other populations. Overall, our results show how recent demographic history has affected patterns of deleterious variants in human populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

The Effect of an Increased Convective Entrainment Rate on Indian Monsoon Biases in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steve; Martin, Gill

2013-04-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are a key tool for understanding and predicting monsoon rainfall, now and under future climate change. However, many GCMs show significant, systematic biases in their simulation of monsoon rainfall and dynamics that spin up over very short time scales and persist in the climate mean state. We describe several of these biases as simulated in the Met Office Unified Model and show they are sensitive to changes in the convective parameterization's entrainment rate. To improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parameterizations, we explore the reasons for this sensitivity. We show the results of experiments where we increase the entrainment rate in regions of especially large bias: the western equatorial Indian Ocean, western north Pacific and India itself. We use the results to determine whether improvements in biases are due to the local increase in entrainment or are the remote response of the entrainment increase elsewhere in the GCM. We find that feedbacks usually strengthen the local response, but the local response leads to a different mean state change in different regions. We also show results from experiments which demonstrate the spin-up of the local response, which we use to further understand the response in complex regions such as the Western North Pacific. Our work demonstrates that local application of parameterization changes is a powerful tool for understanding their global impact.

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models.

PubMed

Oke, Tobi A; Hager, Heather A

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity.

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models

PubMed Central

Oke, Tobi A.; Hager, Heather A.

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity. PMID:28426754

Modeling of Micro Deval abrasion loss based on some rock properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capik, Mehmet; Yilmaz, Ali Osman

2017-10-01

Aggregate is one of the most widely used construction material. The quality of the aggregate is determined using some testing methods. Among these methods, the Micro Deval Abrasion Loss (MDAL) test is commonly used for the determination of the quality and the abrasion resistance of aggregate. The main objective of this study is to develop models for the prediction of MDAL from rock properties, including uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, point load index, Schmidt rebound hardness, apparent porosity, void ratio Cerchar abrasivity index and Bohme abrasion test are examined. Additionally, the MDAL is modeled using simple regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis based on the rock properties. The study shows that the MDAL decreases with the increase of uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, point load index, Schmidt rebound hardness and Cerchar abrasivity index. It is also concluded that the MDAL increases with the increase of apparent porosity, void ratio and Bohme abrasion test. The modeling results show that the models based on Bohme abrasion test and L type Schmidt rebound hardness give the better forecasting performances for the MDAL. More models, including the uniaxial compressive strength, the apparent porosity and Cerchar abrasivity index, are developed for the rapid estimation of the MDAL of the rocks. The developed models were verified by statistical tests. Additionally, it can be stated that the proposed models can be used as a forecasting for aggregate quality.

Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Heinke, J.; Gerten, D.; Haddeland, I.; Arnell, N. W.; Clark, D. B.; Dankers, R.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B. M.; Colon-Gonzalez, F. J.; Gosling, S. N.; KIM, H.; Liu, X.; Masaki, Y.; Portmann, F. T.; Satoh, Y.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; albrecht, T.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Kabat, P.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. In the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models (GCMs) and the latest greenhouse--gas concentration scenarios (RCPs) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that up to a global warming of 2°C above present (approx. 2.7°C above pre--industrial), each additional degree of warming will confront an additional approx. 7% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources; and that climate change will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500m3/capita/year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared to the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between present--day and 2°C, while indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both GCMs and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. Relative change in annual discharge at 2°C compared to present-day, under RCP8.5, from an ensemble of 11 global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by five global climate models (GCMs). Color hues show the multi-model mean change, and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all GHM-GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign).

A Theory of Age-Dependent Mutation and Senescence

PubMed Central

Moorad, Jacob A.; Promislow, Daniel E. L.

2008-01-01

Laboratory experiments show us that the deleterious character of accumulated novel age-specific mutations is reduced and made less variable with increased age. While theories of aging predict that the frequency of deleterious mutations at mutation–selection equilibrium will increase with the mutation's age of effect, they do not account for these age-related changes in the distribution of de novo mutational effects. Furthermore, no model predicts why this dependence of mutational effects upon age exists. Because the nature of mutational distributions plays a critical role in shaping patterns of senescence, we need to develop aging theory that explains and incorporates these effects. Here we propose a model that explains the age dependency of mutational effects by extending Fisher's geometrical model of adaptation to include a temporal dimension. Using a combination of simple analytical arguments and simulations, we show that our model predicts age-specific mutational distributions that are consistent with observations from mutation-accumulation experiments. Simulations show us that these age-specific mutational effects may generate patterns of senescence at mutation–selection equilibrium that are consistent with observed demographic patterns that are otherwise difficult to explain. PMID:18660535

Impact of the Skim Milk Powder Manufacturing Process on the Flavor of Model White Chocolate.

PubMed

Stewart, Ashleigh; Grandison, Alistair S; Ryan, Angela; Festring, Daniel; Methven, Lisa; Parker, Jane K

2017-02-15

Milk powder is an important ingredient in the confectionery industry, but its variable nature has consequences for the quality of the final confectionary product. This paper demonstrates that skim milk powders (SMP) produced using different (but typical) manufacturing processes, when used as ingredients in the manufacture of model white chocolates, had a significant impact on the sensory and volatile profiles of the chocolate. SMP was produced from raw bovine milk using either low or high heat treatment, and a model white chocolate was prepared from each SMP. A directional discrimination test with naïve panelists showed that the chocolate prepared from the high heat SMP had more caramel/fudge character (p < 0.0001), and sensory profiling with an expert panel showed an increase in both fudge (p < 0.05) and condensed milk (p < 0.05) flavor. Gas chromatography (GC)-mass spectrometry and GC-olfactometry of both the SMPs and the model chocolates showed a concomitant increase in Maillard-derived volatiles which are likely to account for this change in flavor.

Effects of electrojet turbulence on a magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiltberger, M.; Merkin, V.; Zhang, B.; Toffoletto, F.; Oppenheim, M.; Wang, W.; Lyon, J. G.; Liu, J.; Dimant, Y.; Sitnov, M. I.; Stephens, G. K.

2017-05-01

Ionospheric conductance plays an important role in regulating the response of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to solar wind driving. Typically, models of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling include changes to ionospheric conductance driven by extreme ultraviolet ionization and electron precipitation. This paper shows that effects driven by the Farley-Buneman instability can also create significant enhancements in the ionospheric conductance, with substantial impacts on geospace. We have implemented a method of including electrojet turbulence (ET) effects into the ionospheric conductance model utilized within geospace simulations. Our particular implementation is tested with simulations of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetosphere model coupled with the Rice Convection Model of the inner magnetosphere. We examine the impact of including ET-modified conductances in a case study of the geomagnetic storm of 17 March 2013. Simulations with ET show a 13% reduction in the cross polar cap potential at the beginning of the storm and up to 20% increases in the Pedersen and Hall conductance. These simulation results show better agreement with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program observations, including capturing features of subauroral polarization streams. The field-aligned current (FAC) patterns show little differences during the peak of storm and agree well with Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) reconstructions. Typically, the simulated FAC densities are stronger and at slightly higher latitudes than shown by AMPERE. The inner magnetospheric pressures derived from Tsyganenko-Sitnov empirical magnetic field model show that the inclusion of the ET effects increases the peak pressure and brings the results into better agreement with the empirical model.

Equivalent circuit model parameters of a high-power Li-ion battery: Thermal and state of charge effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Jamie; Nelson, Ruben; Kalu, Egwu E.; Weatherspoon, Mark H.; Zheng, Jim P.

2011-05-01

Equivalent circuit model (EMC) of a high-power Li-ion battery that accounts for both temperature and state of charge (SOC) effects known to influence battery performance is presented. Electrochemical impedance measurements of a commercial high power Li-ion battery obtained in the temperature range 20 to 50 °C at various SOC values was used to develop a simple EMC which was used in combination with a non-linear least squares fitting procedure that used thirteen parameters for the analysis of the Li-ion cell. The experimental results show that the solution and charge transfer resistances decreased with increase in cell operating temperature and decreasing SOC. On the other hand, the Warburg admittance increased with increasing temperature and decreasing SOC. The developed model correlations that are capable of being used in process control algorithms are presented for the observed impedance behavior with respect to temperature and SOC effects. The predicted model parameters for the impedance elements Rs, Rct and Y013 show low variance of 5% when compared to the experimental data and therefore indicates a good statistical agreement of correlation model to the actual experimental values.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Discovering Novel Alternaria solani Succinate Dehydrogenase Inhibitors by In Silico Modeling and Virtual Screening Strategies to Combat Early Blight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iftikhar, Sehrish; Shahid, Ahmad A.; Halim, Sobia A.; Wolters, Pieter J.; Vleeshouwers, Vivianne G. A. A.; Khan, Ajmal; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Shahbaz

2017-11-01

Alternaria blight is an important foliage disease caused by Alternaria solani. The enzyme Succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) is a potential drug target because of its role in tricarboxylic acid cycle. Hence targeting Alternaria solani SDH enzyme could be efficient tool to design novel fungicides against A. solani. We employed computational methodologies to design new SDH inhibitors using homology modeling; pharmacophore modeling and structure based virtual screening protocol. The three dimensional SDH model showed good stereo-chemical and structural properties. Based on virtual screening results twelve commercially available compounds were purchased and tested in vitro and in vivo. The compounds were found to inhibit mycelial growth of A. solani. Moreover in vitro trials showed that inhibitory effects were enhanced with increase in concentrations. Similarly increased disease control was observed in pre-treated potato tubers. Hence the applied in silico strategy led us to identify new and novel fungicides.

How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect.

PubMed

Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H

2014-09-25

Black carbon (BC), unlike most aerosol types, absorbs solar radiation. However, the quantification of its climate impact is uncertain and presently under debate. Recently, attention has been drawn both to a likely underestimation of global BC emissions in climate models, and an overestimation of BC at high altitudes. Here we show that doubling present day BC emissions in a model simulation, while reducing BC lifetime based on observational evidence, leaves the direct aerosol effect of BC virtually unchanged. Increased emissions, together with increased wet removal that reduces the lifetime, yields modelled BC vertical profiles that are in strongly improved agreement with recent aircraft observations. Furthermore, we explore the consequences of an altered BC profile in a global circulation model, and show that both the vertical profile of BC and rapid climate adjustments need to be taken into account in order to assess the total climate impact of BC.

Discovering Novel Alternaria solani Succinate Dehydrogenase Inhibitors by in Silico Modeling and Virtual Screening Strategies to Combat Early Blight

PubMed Central

Iftikhar, Sehrish; Shahid, Ahmad A.; Halim, Sobia A.; Wolters, Pieter J.; Vleeshouwers, Vivianne G. A. A.; Khan, Ajmal; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Shahbaz

2017-01-01

Alternaria blight is an important foliage disease caused by Alternaria solani. The enzyme Succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) is a potential drug target because of its role in tricarboxylic acid cycle. Hence targeting Alternaria solani SDH enzyme could be efficient tool to design novel fungicides against A. solani. We employed computational methodologies to design new SDH inhibitors using homology modeling; pharmacophore modeling and structure based virtual screening. The three dimensional SDH model showed good stereo-chemical and structural properties. Based on virtual screening results twelve commercially available compounds were purchased and tested in vitro and in vivo. The compounds were found to inhibit mycelial growth of A. solani. Moreover in vitro trials showed that inhibitory effects were enhanced with increase in concentrations. Similarly increased disease control was observed in pre-treated potato tubers. Hence the applied in silico strategy led us to identify novel fungicides. PMID:29204422

Study on the high speed scramjet characteristics at Mach 10 to 15 flight condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, M.; Itoh, K.; Tanno, H.; Komuro, T.; Sunami, T.; Sato, K.; Ueda, S.

A scramjet engine model, designed to establish steady and strong combustion at free-stream conditions corresponding to Mach 12 flight, was tested in a large free-piston driven shock tunnel. Combustion tests of a previous engine model showed that combustion heat release obtained in the combustor was not sufficient to maintain strong combustion. For a new scramjet engine model, the inlet compression ratio was increased to raise the static temperature and density of the flow at the combustor entrance. As a result of the aerodynamic design change, the pressure rise due to combustion increased and the duration of strong combustion conditions in the combustor was extended. A hyper-mixer injector designed to enhance mixing and combustion by introducing streamwise vortices was applied to the new engine model. The results showed that the hyper mixer injector was very effective in promoting combustion heat release and establishing steady and strong combustion in the combustor.

Process of .sup.196 Hg enrichment

DOEpatents

Grossman, Mark W.; Mellor, Charles E.

1993-01-01

A simple rate equation model shows that by increasing the length of the photochemical reactor and/or by increasing the photon intensity in said reactor, the feedstock utilization of .sup.196 Hg will be increased. Two preferred embodiments of the present invention are described, namely (1) long reactors using long photochemical lamps and vapor filters; and (2) quartz reactors with external UV reflecting films. These embodiments have each been constructed and operated, demonstrating the enhanced utilization process dictated by the mathematical model (also provided).

Process of [sup 196]Hg enrichment

DOEpatents

Grossman, M.W.; Mellor, C.E.

1993-04-27

A simple rate equation model shows that by increasing the length of the photochemical reactor and/or by increasing the photon intensity in said reactor, the feedstock utilization of [sup 196]Hg will be increased. Two preferred embodiments of the present invention are described, namely (1) long reactors using long photochemical lamps and vapor filters; and (2) quartz reactors with external UV reflecting films. These embodiments have each been constructed and operated, demonstrating the enhanced utilization process dictated by the mathematical model (also provided).

Evaluation of predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation after tests with convection and microphysics schemes in the Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, J. L.; Chou, S. C.; Yaguchi, S. M.

2012-04-01

Physics parameterizations and the model vertical and horizontal resolutions, for example, can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in the numerical weather predictions, especially at regions with complex topography. The objective of this study is to assess the influences of model precipitation production schemes and horizontal resolution on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Eta Model . The model was run in hydrostatic mode at 3- and 5-km grid sizes, the vertical resolution was set to 50 layers, and the time steps to 6 and 10 s, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were taken from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Over the sea the 0.25-deg sea surface temperature from NOAA was used. The model was setup to run for each resolution over Angra dos Reis, located in the Southeast region of Brazil, for the rainy period between 18 December 2009 and 01 de January 2010, the model simulation range was 48 hours. In one set of runs the cumulus parameterization was switched off, in this case the model precipitation was fully simulated by cloud microphysics scheme, and in the other set the model was run with weak cumulus convection. The results show that as the model horizontal resolution increases from 5 to 3 km, the spatial pattern of the precipitation hardly changed, although the maximum precipitation core increased in magnitude. Daily data from automatic station data was used to evaluate the runs and shows that the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation were better simulated for 3 km when compared against observations. The model configuration results without cumulus convection shows a small contraction in the precipitating area and an increase in the simulated maximum values. The diurnal cycle of precipitation was better simulated with some activity of the cumulus convection scheme. The skill scores for the period and for different forecast ranges are higher at weak and moderate precipitation rates.

An operational wave forecasting system for the east coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhya, K. G.; Murty, P. L. N.; Deshmukh, Aditya N.; Balakrishnan Nair, T. M.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

2018-03-01

Demand for operational ocean state forecasting is increasing, owing to the ever-increasing marine activities in the context of blue economy. In the present study, an operational wave forecasting system for the east coast of India is proposed using unstructured Simulating WAves Nearshore model (UNSWAN). This modelling system uses very high resolution mesh near the Indian east coast and coarse resolution offshore, and thus avoids the necessity of nesting with a global wave model. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winds and simulates wave parameters and wave spectra for the next 3 days. The spatial pictures of satellite data overlaid on simulated wave height show that the model is capable of simulating the significant wave heights and their gradients realistically. Spectral validation has been done using the available data to prove the reliability of the model. To further evaluate the model performance, the wave forecast for the entire year 2014 is evaluated against buoy measurements over the region at 4 waverider buoy locations. Seasonal analysis of significant wave height (Hs) at the four locations showed that the correlation between the modelled and observed was the highest (in the range 0.78-0.96) during the post-monsoon season. The variability of Hs was also the highest during this season at all locations. The error statistics showed clear seasonal and geographical location dependence. The root mean square error at Visakhapatnam was the same (0.25) for all seasons, but it was the smallest for pre-monsoon season (0.12 m and 0.17 m) for Puducherry and Gopalpur. The wind sea component showed higher variability compared to the corresponding swell component in all locations and for all seasons. The variability was picked by the model to a reasonable level in most of the cases. The results of statistical analysis show that the modelling system is suitable for use in the operational scenario.

[Validation of a path model on adolescents' suicidal ideation and violent behavior].

PubMed

Park, Hyun Sook

2007-10-01

This study examined the fitness of a path model on the relationship among stress, self-esteem, aggression, depression, suicidal ideation, and violent behavior for adolescents. The subjects consisted of 1,177 adolescents. Data was collected through self-report questionnaires. The data was analyzed by the SPSS and AMOS programs. Stress, self-esteem, aggression, and depression showed a direct effect on suicidal ideation for adolescents, while stress, self-esteem, and aggression showed an indirect effect on suicidal ideation for adolescents. Stress, self-esteem, aggression, and suicidal ideation showed a direct effect on violent behavior for adolescents, while stress, self-esteem, aggression, and depression showed an indirect effect on violent behavior for adolescents. The modified path model of adolescent's suicidal ideation and violent behavior was proven correct. These results suggest that adolescent's suicidal ideation and violent behavior can be decreased by reducing stress, aggression, and depression and increasing self-esteem. Based on the outcomes of this study, it is necessary to design an intervention program that emphasizes reducing stress, aggression, and depression and increasing self-esteem in order to decrease adolescents' suicide ideation and violence.

The hydrological vulnerability of western North American boreal tree species based on ground-based observations of tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.

2017-12-01

Several studies indicate that climate change has increased rates of tree mortality, adversely affecting timber supply and carbon storage in western North American boreal forests. Statistical models of tree mortality can play a complimentary role in detecting and diagnosing forest change. Yet, such models struggle to address real-world complexity, including expectations that hydrological vulnerability arises from both drought stress and excess-water stress, and that these effects vary by species, tree size, and competitive status. Here, we describe models that predict annual probability of tree mortality (Pm) of common boreal tree species based on tree height (H), biomass of larger trees (BLT), soil water content (W), reference evapotranspiration (E), and two-way interactions. We show that interactions among H and hydrological variables are consistently significant. Vulnerability to extreme droughts consistently increases as H approaches maximum observed values of each species, while some species additionally show increasing vulnerability at low H. Some species additionally show increasing vulnerability to low W under high BLT, or increasing drought vulnerability under low BLT. These results suggest that vulnerability of trees to increasingly severe droughts depends on the hydraulic efficiency, competitive status, and microclimate of individual trees. Static simulations of Pm across a 1-km grid (i.e., with time-independent inputs of H, BLT, and species composition) indicate complex spatial patterns in the time trends during 1965-2014 and a mean change in Pm of 42 %. Lastly, we discuss how the size-dependence of hydrological vulnerability, in concert with increasingly severe drought events, may shape future responses of stand-level biomass production to continued warming and increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the region.

Characterizing Flow and Suspended Sediment Trends in the Sacramento River Basin, CA Using Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, M. A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Wright, S. A.; Minear, J. T.

2014-12-01

A watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin, CA was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) for fifty years (1958-2008) using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF). To compensate for the large model domain and sparse data, rigorous meteorological development and characterization of hydraulic geometry were employed to spatially distribute climate and hydrologic processes in unmeasured locations. Parameterization techniques sought to include known spatial information for tributaries such as soil information and slope, and then parameters were scaled up or down during calibration to retain the spatial characteristics of the land surface in un-gaged areas. Accuracy was assessed by comparing model calibration to measured streamflow. Calibration and validation of the Sacramento River ranged from "good" to "very good" performance based upon a "goodness-of-fit" statistical guideline. Model calibration to measured sediment loads were underestimated on average by 39% for the Sacramento River, and model calibration to suspended sediment concentrations were underestimated on average by 22% for the Sacramento River. Sediment loads showed a slight decreasing trend from 1958-2008 and was significant (p < 0.0025) in the lower 50% of stream flows. Hypothetical climate change scenarios were developed using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). Several wet and dry scenarios coupled with temperature increases were imposed on the historical base conditions to evaluate sensitivity of streamflow and sediment on potential changes in climate. Wet scenarios showed an increase of 9.7 - 17.5% in streamflow, a 7.6 - 17.5% increase in runoff, and a 30 - 93% increase in sediment loads. The dry scenarios showed a roughly 5% decrease in flow and runoff, and a 16 - 18% decrease in sediment loads. The base hydrology was most sensitive to a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and an increase in storm intensity and frequency. The complete calibrated HSPF model will use future climate scenarios to make projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the SFBD from 2000-2100.

Temperature-dependent rate models of vascular cambium cell mortality

Treesearch

Matthew B. Dickinson; Edward A. Johnson

2004-01-01

We use two rate-process models to describe cell mortality at elevated temperatures as a means of understanding vascular cambium cell death during surface fires. In the models, cell death is caused by irreversible damage to cellular molecules that occurs at rates that increase exponentially with temperature. The models differ in whether cells show cumulative effects of...

Kinetic study of corn straw pyrolysis: comparison of two different three-pseudocomponent models.

PubMed

Li, Zhengqi; Zhao, Wei; Meng, Baihong; Liu, Chunlong; Zhu, Qunyi; Zhao, Guangbo

2008-11-01

With heating rates of 20, 50 and 100 K min(-1), the thermal decomposition of corn straw samples (corn stalks skins, corn stalks cores, corn bracts and corn leaves) were studied using thermogravimetric analysis. The maximum pyrolysis rates increased with the heating rate increasing and the temperature at the peak pyrolysis rate also increased. Assuming the addition of three independent parallel reactions, corresponding to three pseudocomponents linked to the hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin, two different three-pseudocomponent models were used to simulate the corn straw pyrolysis. Model parameters of pyrolysis were given. It was found that the three-pseudocomponent model with n-order kinetics was more accurate than the model with first-order kinetics at most cases. It showed that the model with n-order kinetics was more accurate to describe the pyrolysis of the hemicellulose.

Impacts of amount of impregnated iron in granular activated carbon on arsenate adsorption capacities and kinetics.

PubMed

Chang, Qigang; Lin, Wei; Ying, Wei-Chi

2012-06-01

Iron-impregnated granular activated carbons (Fe-GAC) can remove arsenic effectively from water. In this study, Fe-GACs with iron content of 1.64 to 28.90% were synthesized using a new multi-step procedure for the investigation of effects of iron amount on arsenic adsorption capacities and kinetics. Langmuir model satisfactorily fit arsenic adsorption on Fe-GACs. The maximum arsenic adsorption capacity (q(m)) increased significantly with iron impregnation and reached 1,867 to 1,912 microg/g with iron content of 9.96 to 13.59%. Further increase of iron content (> 13.59%) caused gradual decrease of q(m). It was found that the amount of impregnated iron showed little impact on the affinity for arsenate. Kinetic study showed that the amount of impregnated iron affected the arsenic intraparticle diffusion rate greatly. The pseudo-second-order kinetic model fit arsenic adsorption kinetics on Fe-GACs better than the pseudo-first-order model. The arsenic adsorption rate increased with increasing of iron content from 1.64% to 13.59%, and then decreased with more impregnated iron (13.59 to 28.90%).

Snakes mimic earthworms: propulsion using rectilinear travelling waves

PubMed Central

Marvi, Hamidreza; Bridges, Jacob; Hu, David L.

2013-01-01

In rectilinear locomotion, snakes propel themselves using unidirectional travelling waves of muscular contraction, in a style similar to earthworms. In this combined experimental and theoretical study, we film rectilinear locomotion of three species of snakes, including red-tailed boa constrictors, Dumeril's boas and Gaboon vipers. The kinematics of a snake's extension–contraction travelling wave are characterized by wave frequency, amplitude and speed. We find wave frequency increases with increasing body size, an opposite trend than that for legged animals. We predict body speed with 73–97% accuracy using a mathematical model of a one-dimensional n-linked crawler that uses friction as the dominant propulsive force. We apply our model to show snakes have optimal wave frequencies: higher values increase Froude number causing the snake to slip; smaller values decrease thrust and so body speed. Other choices of kinematic variables, such as wave amplitude, are suboptimal and appear to be limited by anatomical constraints. Our model also shows that local body lifting increases a snake's speed by 31 per cent, demonstrating that rectilinear locomotion benefits from vertical motion similar to walking. PMID:23635494

Effect of Impeller Geometry on Lift-Off Characteristics and Rotational Attitude in a Monopivot Centrifugal Blood Pump.

PubMed

Nishida, Masahiro; Nakayama, Kento; Sakota, Daisuke; Kosaka, Ryo; Maruyama, Osamu; Kawaguchi, Yasuo; Kuwana, Katsuyuki; Yamane, Takashi

2016-06-01

The effect of the flow path geometry of the impeller on the lift-off and tilt of the rotational axis of the impeller against the hydrodynamic force was investigated in a centrifugal blood pump with an impeller supported by a single-contact pivot bearing. Four types of impeller were compared: the FR model with the flow path having both front and rear cutouts on the tip, the F model with the flow path having only a front cutout, the R model with only a rear cutout, and the N model with a straight flow path. First, the axial thrust and the movement about the pivot point, which was loaded on the surface of the impeller, were calculated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Next, the lift-off point and the tilt of the rotational axis of the impeller were measured experimentally. The CFD analysis showed that the axial thrust increased gently in the FR and R models as the flow rate increased, whereas it increased drastically in the F and N models. This difference in axial thrust was likely from the higher pressure caused by the smaller circumferential velocity in the gap between the top surface of the impeller and the casing in the FR and R models than in the F and N models, which was caused by the rear cutout. These results corresponded with the experimental results showing that the impellers lifted off in the F and N models as the flow rate increased, whereas it did not in the FR and R models. Conversely, the movement about the pivot point increased in the direction opposite the side with the pump outlet as the flow rate increased. However, the tilt of the rotational axis of the impeller, which oriented away from the pump outlet, was less than 0.8° in any model under any conditions, and was considered to negligibly affect the rotational attitude of the impeller. These results confirm that a rear cutout prevents lift-off of the impeller caused by a decrease in the axial thrust. © 2016 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Electrocoagulation and nanofiltration integrated process application in purification of bilge water using response surface methodology.

PubMed

Akarsu, Ceyhun; Ozay, Yasin; Dizge, Nadir; Elif Gulsen, H; Ates, Hasan; Gozmen, Belgin; Turabik, Meral

Marine pollution has been considered an increasing problem because of the increase in sea transportation day by day. Therefore, a large volume of bilge water which contains petroleum, oil and hydrocarbons in high concentrations is generated from all types of ships. In this study, treatment of bilge water by electrocoagulation/electroflotation and nanofiltration integrated process is investigated as a function of voltage, time, and initial pH with aluminum electrode as both anode and cathode. Moreover, a commercial NF270 flat-sheet membrane was also used for further purification. Box-Behnken design combined with response surface methodology was used to study the response pattern and determine the optimum conditions for maximum chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal and minimum metal ion contents of bilge water. Three independent variables, namely voltage (5-15 V), initial pH (4.5-8.0) and time (30-90 min) were transformed to coded values. The COD removal percent, UV absorbance at 254 nm, pH value (after treatment), and concentration of metal ions (Ti, As, Cu, Cr, Zn, Sr, Mo) were obtained as responses. Analysis of variance results showed that all the models were significant except for Zn (P > 0.05), because the calculated F values for these models were less than the critical F value for the considered probability (P = 0.05). The obtained R(2) and Radj(2) values signified the correlation between the experimental data and predicted responses: except for the model of Zn concentration after treatment, the high R(2) values showed the goodness of fit of the model. While the increase in the applied voltage showed negative effects, the increases in time and pH showed a positive effect on COD removal efficiency; also the most effective linear term was found as time. A positive sign of the interactive coefficients of the voltage-time and pH-time systems indicated synergistic effect on COD removal efficiency, whereas interaction between voltage and pH showed an antagonistic effect.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Influence of gas injection on viscous and viscoelastic properties of Xanthan gum.

PubMed

Bobade, Veena; Cheetham, Madalyn; Hashim, Jamal; Eshtiaghi, Nicky

2018-05-01

Xanthan gum is widely used as a model fluid for sludge to mimic the rheological behaviour under various conditions including impact of gas injection in sludge. However, there is no study to show the influence of gas injection on rheological properties of xanthan gum specifically at the concentrations at which it is used as a model fluid for sludge with solids concentration above 2%. In this paper, the rheological properties of aqueous xanthan gum solutions at different concentrations were measured over a range of gas injection flow rates. The effect of gas injection on both the flow and viscoelastic behaviour of Xanthan gum (using two different methods - a creep test and a time sweep test) was evaluated. The viscosity curve of different solid concentrations of digested sludge and waste activated sludge were compared with different solid concentrations of Xanthan gum and the results showed that Xanthan gum can mimic the flow behaviour of sludge in flow regime. The results in linear viscoelastic regime showed that increasing gas flow rate increases storage modulus (G'), indicating an increase in the intermolecular associations within the material structure leading to an increase in material strength and solid behaviour. Similarly, in creep test an increase in the gas flow rate decreased strain%, signifying that the material has become more resistant to flow. Both observed behaviour is opposite to what occurs in sludge under similar conditions. The results of both the creep test and the time sweep test indicated that choosing Xanthan gum aqueous solution as a transparent model fluid for sludge in viscoelastic regime under similar conditions involving gas injection in a concentration range studied is not feasible. However Xanthan gum can be used as a model material for sludge in flow regime; because it shows a similar behaviour to sludge. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Unknown Hydrogen Exosphere: Space Weather Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krall, J.; Glocer, A.; Fok, M.-C.; Nossal, S. M.; Huba, J. D.

2018-03-01

Recent studies suggest that the hydrogen (H) density in the exosphere and geocorona might differ from previously assumed values by factors as large as 2. We use the SAMI3 (Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere) and Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere models to evaluate scenarios where the hydrogen density is reduced or enhanced, by a factor of 2, relative to values given by commonly used empirical models. We show that the rate of plasmasphere refilling following a geomagnetic storm varies nearly linearly with the hydrogen density. We also show that the ring current associated with a geomagnetic storm decays more rapidly when H is increased. With respect to these two space weather effects, increased exosphere hydrogen density is associated with reduced threats to space assets during and following a geomagnetic storm.

Acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylated, mannose-modified nanoparticles increase the delivery of betamethasone to chronic inflammation sites in a mouse model

PubMed Central

O’Mary, Hannah L.; Aldayel, Abdulaziz M.; Valdes, Solange A.; Naguib, Youssef W.; Li, Xu; Salvady, Karun; Cui, Zhengrong

2017-01-01

Inflammation is implicated in a host of chronic illnesses. Within these inflamed tissues, the pH of the microenvironment is decreased and immune cells, particularly macrophages, infiltrate the area. Additionally, the vascular integrity of these sites is altered with increased fenestrations between endothelial cells. These distinctive properties may be exploited to enhance targeted delivery of anti-inflammatory therapies. Using a mouse model of chronic inflammation, we previously showed that acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylation increases the distribution and retention of nanoparticles in chronic inflammation sites. Here we demonstrated that surface modification of the acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylated nanoparticles with mannose, a ligand to mannose receptors present in chronic inflammation sites, significantly increases the targeted delivery of the nanoparticles to these areas. Furthermore, we showed that the acid-sensitive sheddable PEGylated, mannose-modified nanoparticles are able to significantly increase the delivery of betamethasone-21-acetate (BA), a model anti-inflammatory compound, to chronic inflammation sites as compared to free BA. These results highlight the ability to engineer formulations to target chronic inflammation sites by exploiting the microenvironment of these regions. PMID:28463518

Differential transcriptional regulation by alternatively designed mechanisms: A mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Yildirim, Necmettin; Aktas, Mehmet Emin; Ozcan, Seyma Nur; Akbas, Esra; Ay, Ahmet

2017-01-01

Cells maintain cellular homeostasis employing different regulatory mechanisms to respond external stimuli. We study two groups of signal-dependent transcriptional regulatory mechanisms. In the first group, we assume that repressor and activator proteins compete for binding to the same regulatory site on DNA (competitive mechanisms). In the second group, they can bind to different regulatory regions in a noncompetitive fashion (noncompetitive mechanisms). For both competitive and noncompetitive mechanisms, we studied the gene expression dynamics by increasing the repressor or decreasing the activator abundance (inhibition mechanisms), or by decreasing the repressor or increasing the activator abundance (activation mechanisms). We employed delay differential equation models. Our simulation results show that the competitive and noncompetitive inhibition mechanisms exhibit comparable repression effectiveness. However, response time is fastest in the noncompetitive inhibition mechanism due to increased repressor abundance, and slowest in the competitive inhibition mechanism by increased repressor level. The competitive and noncompetitive inhibition mechanisms through decreased activator abundance show comparable and moderate response times, while the competitive and noncompetitive activation mechanisms by increased activator protein level display more effective and faster response. Our study exemplifies the importance of mathematical modeling and computer simulation in the analysis of gene expression dynamics.

A Mouse Model of Subchronic and Mild Social Defeat Stress for Understanding Stress-induced Behavioral and Physiological Deficits

PubMed Central

Goto, Tatsuhiko; Toyoda, Atsushi

2015-01-01

Stressful life events often increase the incidence of depression in humans. To study the mechanisms of depression, the development of animal models of depression is essential. Because there are several types of depression, various animal models are needed for a deeper understanding of the disorder. Previously, a mouse model of subchronic and mild social defeat stress (sCSDS) using a modified chronic social defeat stress (CSDS) paradigm was established. In the paradigm, to reduce physical injuries from aggressors, the duration of physical contact between the aggressor and a subordinate was reduced compared to in the original CSDS paradigm. sCSDS mice showed increased body weight gain, food intake, and water intake during the stress period, and their social behaviors were suppressed after the stress period. In terms of the face validity of the stress-induced overeating and overdrinking following the increased body weight gain, the sCSDS mice may show some features related to atypical depression in humans. Thus, a mouse model of sCSDS may be useful for studying the pathogenic mechanisms underlying depression. This protocol will help establish the sCSDS mouse model, especially for studying the mechanisms underlying stress-induced weight gain and polydipsia- and hyperphagia-like symptoms. PMID:26650680

Global and regional variability and change in terrestrial ecosystems net primary production and NDVI: A model-data comparison

DOE PAGES

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier; ...

2016-02-25

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Developmental Trajectories of Attention in Typically Developing Chinese Children: A Four-Wave Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Yan, Chao; Zhou, Hui; Wei, Wei; Wang, Yi-Ji; Cui, Lixian; Chan, Raymond C K; Deng, Ci-Ping

2018-06-22

We conducted a 4-year longitudinal study to investigate trajectories of attention in a sample of 145 Chinese children. The Test of Everyday Attention was administered and latent growth modeling was used to capture developmental trajectories. We found that children's selective attention showed a linear increase, whereas attentional control and sustained attention increased rapidly then slowed down over 4 years. There was no significant correlation between the slopes of growth model for any subsystems. Girls showed higher initial levels of selective attention than boys, but no difference in growth rate. These findings support different developmental patterns in the attention network systems.

Permeability-porosity relationships in sedimentary rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Philip H.

1994-01-01

In many consolidated sandstone and carbonate formations, plots of core data show that the logarithm of permeability (k) is often linearly proportional to porosity (??). The slope, intercept, and degree of scatter of these log(k)-?? trends vary from formation to formation, and these variations are attributed to differences in initial grain size and sorting, diagenetic history, and compaction history. In unconsolidated sands, better sorting systematically increases both permeability and porosity. In sands and sandstones, an increase in gravel and coarse grain size content causes k to increase even while decreasing ??. Diagenetic minerals in the pore space of sandstones, such as cement and some clay types, tend to decrease log(k) proportionately as ?? decreases. Models to predict permeability from porosity and other measurable rock parameters fall into three classes based on either grain, surface area, or pore dimension considerations. (Models that directly incorporate well log measurements but have no particular theoretical underpinnings from a fourth class.) Grain-based models show permeability proportional to the square of grain size times porosity raised to (roughly) the fifth power, with grain sorting as an additional parameter. Surface-area models show permeability proportional to the inverse square of pore surface area times porosity raised to (roughly) the fourth power; measures of surface area include irreducible water saturation and nuclear magnetic resonance. Pore-dimension models show permeability proportional to the square of a pore dimension times porosity raised to a power of (roughly) two and produce curves of constant pore size that transgress the linear data trends on a log(k)-?? plot. The pore dimension is obtained from mercury injection measurements and is interpreted as the pore opening size of some interconnected fraction of the pore system. The linear log(k)-?? data trends cut the curves of constant pore size from the pore-dimension models, which shows that porosity reduction is always accompanied by a reduction in characteristic pore size. The high powers of porosity of the grain-based and surface-area models are required to compensate for the inclusion of the small end of the pore size spectrum.

Enhanced adsorption of congo red from aqueous solutions by chitosan hydrogel beads impregnated with cetyl trimethyl ammonium bromide.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Sudipta; Lee, Dae S; Lee, Min W; Woo, Seung H

2009-06-01

The adsorption of congo red (CR) onto chitosan (CS) beads impregnated by a cationic surfactant (CTAB, cetyl trimethyl ammonium bromide) was investigated. Chitosan beads impregnated at a ratio of 1/20 of CTAB to CS (0.05% of CTAB and 1% of CS) increased the CR adsorption capacity by 2.2 times from 162.3 mg/g (0% CTAB) to 352.5 mg/g (0.05% CTAB). The CR adsorption decreased with an increase in pH of the CR solution from 4.0 to 9.0. The Sips isotherm model showed a good fit with the equilibrium experimental data and the values of the heterogeneity factor (n) indicated heterogeneous adsorption of CR onto CS/CTAB beads, as well as CS beads. The kinetic data showed better fit to the pseudo second-order rate model than to the pseudo first-order rate model. The impregnation of CS beads by cationic surfactants showed the highest adsorption capacities of CR compared to any other adsorbents and would be a good method to increase adsorption efficiency for the removal of anionic dyes in a wastewater treatment process.

From localization to anomalous diffusion in the dynamics of coupled kicked rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notarnicola, Simone; Iemini, Fernando; Rossini, Davide; Fazio, Rosario; Silva, Alessandro; Russomanno, Angelo

2018-02-01

We study the effect of many-body quantum interference on the dynamics of coupled periodically kicked systems whose classical dynamics is chaotic and shows an unbounded energy increase. We specifically focus on an N -coupled kicked rotors model: We find that the interplay of quantumness and interactions dramatically modifies the system dynamics, inducing a transition between energy saturation and unbounded energy increase. We discuss this phenomenon both numerically and analytically through a mapping onto an N -dimensional Anderson model. The thermodynamic limit N →∞ , in particular, always shows unbounded energy growth. This dynamical delocalization is genuinely quantum and very different from the classical one: Using a mean-field approximation, we see that the system self-organizes so that the energy per site increases in time as a power law with exponent smaller than 1. This wealth of phenomena is a genuine effect of quantum interference: The classical system for N ≥2 always behaves ergodically with an energy per site linearly increasing in time. Our results show that quantum mechanics can deeply alter the regularity or ergodicity properties of a many-body-driven system.

An improved simulation based biomechanical model to estimate static muscle loadings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar L.; Marras, William S.; Woolford, Barbara

1991-01-01

The objectives of this study are to show that the characteristics of an intact muscle are different from those of an isolated muscle and to describe a simulation based model. This model, unlike the optimization based models, accounts for the redundancy in the musculoskeletal system in predicting the amount of forces generated within a muscle. The results of this study show that the loading of the primary muscle is increased by the presence of other muscle activities. Hence, the previous models based on optimization techniques may underestimate the severity of the muscle and joint loadings which occur during manual material handling tasks.

Improved vegetation parameterization for hydrological model and assessment of land cover change impacts on flow regime of the Upper Bhima basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaideen, M. M. Diwan; Varija, K.

2018-05-01

This study investigates the potential and applicability of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate different hydrological components of the Upper Bhima basin under two different Land Use Land Cover (LULC) (the year 2000 and 2010) conditions. The total drainage area of the basin was discretized into 1694 grids of about 5.5 km by 5.5 km: accordingly the model parameters were calibrated at each grid level. Vegetation parameters for the model were prepared using temporal profile of Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and LULC. This practice provides a methodological framework for the improved vegetation parameterization along with region-specific condition for the model simulation. The calibrated and validated model was run using the two LULC conditions separately with the same observed meteorological forcing (1996-2001) and soil data. The change in LULC has resulted to an increase in the average annual evapotranspiration over the basin by 7.8%, while the average annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 18.86 and 5.83%, respectively. The variability in hydrological components and the spatial variation of each component attributed to LULC were assessed at the basin grid level. It was observed that 80% of the basin grids showed an increase in evapotranspiration (ET) (maximum of 292 mm). While the majority of the grids showed a decrease in surface runoff and baseflow, some of the grids showed an increase (i.e. 21 and 15% of total grids—surface runoff and baseflow, respectively).

Ab initio quantum mechanical calculation of the reaction probability for the Cl-+PH2Cl→ClPH2+Cl- reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Pooria; Lundberg, Marcus; Karlsson, Hans O.

2013-11-01

The SN2 substitution reactions at phosphorus play a key role in organic and biological processes. Quantum molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to study the prototype reaction Cl-+PH2Cl→ClPH2+Cl-, using one and two-dimensional models. A potential energy surface, showing an energy well for a transition complex, was generated using ab initio electronic structure calculations. The one-dimensional model is essentially reflection free, whereas the more realistic two-dimensional model displays involved resonance structures in the reaction probability. The reaction rate is almost two orders of magnitude smaller for the two-dimensional compared to the one-dimensional model. Energetic errors in the potential energy surface is estimated to affect the rate by only a factor of two. This shows that for these types of reactions it is more important to increase the dimensionality of the modeling than to increase the accuracy of the electronic structure calculation.

Baicalin promotes the bacteriostatic activity of lysozyme on S. aureus in mammary glands and neutrophilic granulocytes in mice

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zecai; Shen, Peng; Yang, Zhengtao; Zhang, Naisheng

2017-01-01

Staphylococcus aureus causes mastitis as a result of community-acquired or nosocomial infections. Lysozyme (LYSO) is an enzyme that is upregulated in many organisms during the innate immune response against infection by bacterial pathogens. Baicalin is a bioactive flavonoid that can bind to enzymes, often to potentiate their effect. Here we tested the effects of baicalin on the activity of LYSO using the S. aureus mastitis mouse model and neutrophilic granulocyte model of S. aureus infection. In our experiments, S. aureus counts decreased with increasing baicalin concentration. Furthermore, qPCR and western blot analyses showed that LYSO expression was unaffected by baicalin, while fluorescence quenching and UV fluorescence spectral analyses showed that baicalin binds to LYSO. To test whether this binding increased LYSO activity, we assessed LYSO-induced bacteriostasis in the presence of baicalin. Our results showed that LYSO-induced S. aureus bacteriostasis increased with increasing concentrations of baicalin, and that baicalin binding to LYSO synergistically increased the antibacterial activity of LYSO. These results demonstrate that baicalin enhances LYSO-induced bacteriostasis during the innate immune response to S. aureus. They suggest baicalin is a potentially useful therapeutic agent for the treatment of bacterial infections. PMID:28184027

Uncertainties in climate change projections for viticulture in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

2013-04-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on viticulture is often carried out using regional climate model (RCM) outputs. These studies rely on either multi-model ensembles or on single-model approaches. The RCM-ensembles account for uncertainties inherent to the different models. In this study, using a 16-RCM ensemble under the IPCC A1B scenario, the climate change signal (future minus recent-past, 2041-2070 - 1961-2000) of 4 bioclimatic indices (Huglin Index - HI, Dryness Index - DI, Hydrothermal Index - HyI and CompI - Composite Index) over mainland Portugal is analysed. A normalized interquartile range (NIQR) of the 16-member ensemble for each bioclimatic index is assessed in order to quantify the ensemble uncertainty. The results show significant increases in the HI index over most of Portugal, with higher values in Alentejo, Trás-os-Montes and Douro/Porto wine regions, also depicting very low uncertainty. Conversely, the decreases in the DI pattern throughout the country show large uncertainties, except in Minho (northwestern Portugal), where precipitation reaches the highest amounts in Portugal. The HyI shows significant decreases in northwestern Portugal, with relatively low uncertainty all across the country. The CompI depicts significant decreases over Alentejo and increases over Minho, though decreases over Alentejo reveal high uncertainty, while increases over Minho show low uncertainty. The assessment of the uncertainty in climate change projections is of great relevance for the wine industry. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial, since different models may lead to quite different outcomes and may thereby be as crucial as climate change itself to the winemaking sector. This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692.

Study of electrical conductivity and memory switching in the zinc-vanadium-phosphate glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzayi, M.; Hekmatshoar, M. H.

2013-07-01

Vanadium zinc phosphate glasses were prepared by the conventional melt quenching technique and effect of V2O5 concentration on d.c. conductivity of prepared samples were investigated. X-ray diffraction patterns confirmed the glassy character of the samples. The d.c. conductivity increased with increase in V2O5 content. Results showed that activation energy has a single value in the investigated range of temperature, which can be explained in accordance with Mott small pollaron hopping model. I-V characteristics at high electric field showed that switching in these glasses was memory type. The threshold field of switching was found to decrease with increase in V2O5 content. Non-linear behavior and switching phenomenon was explained by Pool-Frenkel effect and thermal model.

Chronic exposure to water pollutant trichloroethylene increased epigenetic drift in CD4(+) T cells.

PubMed

Gilbert, Kathleen M; Blossom, Sarah J; Erickson, Stephen W; Reisfeld, Brad; Zurlinden, Todd J; Broadfoot, Brannon; West, Kirk; Bai, Shasha; Cooney, Craig A

2016-05-01

Autoimmune disease and CD4(+) T-cell alterations are induced in mice exposed to the water pollutant trichloroethylene (TCE). We examined here whether TCE altered gene-specific DNA methylation in CD4(+) T cells as a possible mechanism of immunotoxicity. Naive and effector/memory CD4(+) T cells from mice exposed to TCE (0.5 mg/ml in drinking water) for 40 weeks were examined by bisulfite next-generation DNA sequencing. A probabilistic model calculated from multiple genes showed that TCE decreased methylation control in CD4(+) T cells. Data from individual genes fitted to a quadratic regression model showed that TCE increased gene-specific methylation variance in both CD4 subsets. TCE increased epigenetic drift of specific CpG sites in CD4(+) T cells.

Does moving up a food chain increase aggregation in parasites?

PubMed

Lester, R J G; McVinish, R

2016-05-01

General laws in ecological parasitology are scarce. Here, we evaluate data on numbers of fish parasites published by over 200 authors to determine whether acquiring parasites via prey is associated with an increase in parasite aggregation. Parasite species were grouped taxonomically to produce 20 or more data points per group as far as possible. Most parasites that remained at one trophic level were less aggregated than those that had passed up a food chain. We use a stochastic model to show that high parasite aggregation in predators can be solely the result of the accumulation of parasites in their prey. The model is further developed to show that a change in the predators feeding behaviour with age may further increase parasite aggregation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Estimating thermal regimes of bull trout and assessing the potential effects of climate warming on critical habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow-routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22-m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13 C° and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14 C°. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale.

Ghosts in the machine: memory interference from the previous trial.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Charalampos; Ferdoash, Afreen; Snyder, Lawrence H

2015-01-15

Previous memoranda can interfere with the memorization or storage of new information, a concept known as proactive interference. Studies of proactive interference typically use categorical memoranda and match-to-sample tasks with categorical measures such as the proportion of correct to incorrect responses. In this study we instead train five macaques in a spatial memory task with continuous memoranda and responses, allowing us to more finely probe working memory circuits. We first ask whether the memoranda from the previous trial result in proactive interference in an oculomotor delayed response task. We then characterize the spatial and temporal profile of this interference and ask whether this profile can be predicted by an attractor network model of working memory. We find that memory in the current trial shows a bias toward the location of the memorandum of the previous trial. The magnitude of this bias increases with the duration of the memory period within which it is measured. Our simulations using standard attractor network models of working memory show that these models easily replicate the spatial profile of the bias. However, unlike the behavioral findings, these attractor models show an increase in bias with the duration of the previous rather than the current memory period. To model a bias that increases with current trial duration we posit two separate memory stores, a rapidly decaying visual store that resists proactive interference effects and a sustained memory store that is susceptible to proactive interference. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Ghosts in the machine: memory interference from the previous trial

PubMed Central

Ferdoash, Afreen; Snyder, Lawrence H.

2014-01-01

Previous memoranda can interfere with the memorization or storage of new information, a concept known as proactive interference. Studies of proactive interference typically use categorical memoranda and match-to-sample tasks with categorical measures such as the proportion of correct to incorrect responses. In this study we instead train five macaques in a spatial memory task with continuous memoranda and responses, allowing us to more finely probe working memory circuits. We first ask whether the memoranda from the previous trial result in proactive interference in an oculomotor delayed response task. We then characterize the spatial and temporal profile of this interference and ask whether this profile can be predicted by an attractor network model of working memory. We find that memory in the current trial shows a bias toward the location of the memorandum of the previous trial. The magnitude of this bias increases with the duration of the memory period within which it is measured. Our simulations using standard attractor network models of working memory show that these models easily replicate the spatial profile of the bias. However, unlike the behavioral findings, these attractor models show an increase in bias with the duration of the previous rather than the current memory period. To model a bias that increases with current trial duration we posit two separate memory stores, a rapidly decaying visual store that resists proactive interference effects and a sustained memory store that is susceptible to proactive interference. PMID:25376781

Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

PubMed

Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

2015-11-22

Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

Model study of greenline dayglow emission under geomagnetic storm conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V.; Bag, T.; Sunil Krishna, M. V.

2016-12-01

A comprehensive model is developed to study the influences of geomagnetic storms on greenline (557.7 nm) dayglow emission during the solar active and solar quiet conditions in thermosphere. This study is based on a photochemical model which is developed using the latest reaction rate coefficients, quantum yields and collisional cross-sections obtained from the experimental observations and empirical models. This study is for a low latitude station Tirunelveli (8.7N,77.8E), India. The volume emission rate (VER) has been calculated using the densities and temperature from NRLMSISE-00 and IRI-2012 models. The modeled VER shows a positive correlation with the Dst index, and a negative correlation with the number densities of O, O2, and N2. The VER calculated at the peak emission altitude shows depletion during the main phase of the storm. The peak emission altitude doesn't show any appreciable variation during storm period. On the other hand, the peak emission altitude shows an upward movement with the increase in F10.7 solar index.

Radiosity diffusion model in 3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Jason D.; Arridge, Simon R.; Chrysanthou, Yiorgos; Dehghani, Hamid; Hillman, Elizabeth M. C.; Schweiger, Martin

2001-11-01

We present the Radiosity-Diffusion model in three dimensions(3D), as an extension to previous work in 2D. It is a method for handling non-scattering spaces in optically participating media. We present the extension of the model to 3D including an extension to the model to cope with increased complexity of the 3D domain. We show that in 3D more careful consideration must be given to the issues of meshing and visibility to model the transport of light within reasonable computational bounds. We demonstrate the model to be comparable to Monte-Carlo simulations for selected geometries, and show preliminary results of comparisons to measured time-resolved data acquired on resin phantoms.

Learning alters theta amplitude, theta-gamma coupling and neuronal synchronization in inferotemporal cortex.

PubMed

Kendrick, Keith M; Zhan, Yang; Fischer, Hanno; Nicol, Alister U; Zhang, Xuejuan; Feng, Jianfeng

2011-06-09

How oscillatory brain rhythms alone, or in combination, influence cortical information processing to support learning has yet to be fully established. Local field potential and multi-unit neuronal activity recordings were made from 64-electrode arrays in the inferotemporal cortex of conscious sheep during and after visual discrimination learning of face or object pairs. A neural network model has been developed to simulate and aid functional interpretation of learning-evoked changes. Following learning the amplitude of theta (4-8 Hz), but not gamma (30-70 Hz) oscillations was increased, as was the ratio of theta to gamma. Over 75% of electrodes showed significant coupling between theta phase and gamma amplitude (theta-nested gamma). The strength of this coupling was also increased following learning and this was not simply a consequence of increased theta amplitude. Actual discrimination performance was significantly correlated with theta and theta-gamma coupling changes. Neuronal activity was phase-locked with theta but learning had no effect on firing rates or the magnitude or latencies of visual evoked potentials during stimuli. The neural network model developed showed that a combination of fast and slow inhibitory interneurons could generate theta-nested gamma. By increasing N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor sensitivity in the model similar changes were produced as in inferotemporal cortex after learning. The model showed that these changes could potentiate the firing of downstream neurons by a temporal desynchronization of excitatory neuron output without increasing the firing frequencies of the latter. This desynchronization effect was confirmed in IT neuronal activity following learning and its magnitude was correlated with discrimination performance. Face discrimination learning produces significant increases in both theta amplitude and the strength of theta-gamma coupling in the inferotemporal cortex which are correlated with behavioral performance. A network model which can reproduce these changes suggests that a key function of such learning-evoked alterations in theta and theta-nested gamma activity may be increased temporal desynchronization in neuronal firing leading to optimal timing of inputs to downstream neural networks potentiating their responses. In this way learning can produce potentiation in neural networks simply through altering the temporal pattern of their inputs.

Learning alters theta amplitude, theta-gamma coupling and neuronal synchronization in inferotemporal cortex

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background How oscillatory brain rhythms alone, or in combination, influence cortical information processing to support learning has yet to be fully established. Local field potential and multi-unit neuronal activity recordings were made from 64-electrode arrays in the inferotemporal cortex of conscious sheep during and after visual discrimination learning of face or object pairs. A neural network model has been developed to simulate and aid functional interpretation of learning-evoked changes. Results Following learning the amplitude of theta (4-8 Hz), but not gamma (30-70 Hz) oscillations was increased, as was the ratio of theta to gamma. Over 75% of electrodes showed significant coupling between theta phase and gamma amplitude (theta-nested gamma). The strength of this coupling was also increased following learning and this was not simply a consequence of increased theta amplitude. Actual discrimination performance was significantly correlated with theta and theta-gamma coupling changes. Neuronal activity was phase-locked with theta but learning had no effect on firing rates or the magnitude or latencies of visual evoked potentials during stimuli. The neural network model developed showed that a combination of fast and slow inhibitory interneurons could generate theta-nested gamma. By increasing N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor sensitivity in the model similar changes were produced as in inferotemporal cortex after learning. The model showed that these changes could potentiate the firing of downstream neurons by a temporal desynchronization of excitatory neuron output without increasing the firing frequencies of the latter. This desynchronization effect was confirmed in IT neuronal activity following learning and its magnitude was correlated with discrimination performance. Conclusions Face discrimination learning produces significant increases in both theta amplitude and the strength of theta-gamma coupling in the inferotemporal cortex which are correlated with behavioral performance. A network model which can reproduce these changes suggests that a key function of such learning-evoked alterations in theta and theta-nested gamma activity may be increased temporal desynchronization in neuronal firing leading to optimal timing of inputs to downstream neural networks potentiating their responses. In this way learning can produce potentiation in neural networks simply through altering the temporal pattern of their inputs. PMID:21658251

Non-equilibrium diffusion combustion of a fuel droplet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyurenkova, Veronika V.

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for the non-equilibrium combustion of droplets in rocket engines is developed. This model allows to determine the divergence of combustion rate for the equilibrium and non-equilibrium model. Criterion for droplet combustion deviation from equilibrium is introduced. It grows decreasing droplet radius, accommodation coefficient, temperature and decreases on decreasing diffusion coefficient. Also divergence from equilibrium increases on reduction of droplet radius. Droplet burning time essentially increases under non-equilibrium conditions. Comparison of theoretical and experimental data shows that to have adequate solution for small droplets it is necessary to use the non-equilibrium model.

Linking plant functional trait plasticity and the large increase in forest water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Gough, Christopher M.; Fatichi, Simone

2017-09-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, thus increasing plant water use efficiency. A recent study based on eddy covariance flux observations from Northern Hemisphere forests showed a large increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE). Here we used an updated version of the same data set and robust uncertainty quantification to revisit these contemporary IWUE trends. We tested the hypothesis that the observed IWUE increase could be attributed to interannual trends in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental change. We found that IWUE increased by 1.3% yr-1, which is less than previously reported but still larger than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations with the Tethys-Chloris ecosystem model using temporally static plant functional traits cannot explain this increase. Simulations with plant functional trait plasticity, i.e., temporal changes in model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity, match the observed trends in IWUE. Our results show that trends in plant functional traits, equal to 1.0% yr-1, can explain the observed IWUE trends. Thus, at decadal or longer time scales, trait plasticity could potentially influence forest water, carbon, and energy fluxes with profound implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant functional traits and their representation in Earth system models.

[Effectiveness of integrated early childhood development intervention on nurturing care for children aged 0-35 months in rural China].

PubMed

Shi, H F; Zhang, J X; Wang, X L; Xu, Y Y; Dong, S L; Zhao, C X; Huang, X N; Zhao, Q; Chen, X F; Zhou, Y; O'Sullivan, Margo; Pouwels, Ron; Scherpbier, Robert W

2018-02-02

Objective: To explore whether Integrated Early Childhood Development (IECD) program has effectively improved the nurturing care for children aged 0-35 months in rural China. Methods: IECD has been implemented by the government of China with support from the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) in four poverty-stricken rural counties since 2014. The interventions targeting the five key components of nurturing care (i.e. child and caregiver health, child nutrition, early learning support, child protection and social security) were delivered through the IECD program to children aged 0 to 35 months and their caregivers. A population-based intervention trial was designed to evaluate intervention effectiveness with data collected in 2013 (baseline) and 2016 (mid-term). The changes of nurturing care in the intervention and control group were analyzed by using a difference-in-differences (DID) model. This approach provided adjustment for sociodemographic and other confounding factors. Results: The baseline and mid-term survey enrolled 1 468 and 1 384 children in the intervention group, and 1 485 and 1 361 in the control group. After two years of implementation, the prevalence of caregiver's depression in the intervention group showed a decrease of 9.1% (mid-term 34.8% (479/1 377) vs. baseline 43.9% (621/1 414)), whereas that in control group showed a decrease of 1.6% (mid-term 34.3% (464/1 353) vs. baseline 35.9% (509/1 419)). With the confounding adjusted in the difference-in-differences model, the decrease of the caregiver's depression prevalence in the intervention group was 7.0% greater than that in the control group ( P= 0.008). The qualified rate of minimum meal frequency in the intervention group showed an increase of 10.4% (mid-term 69.0% (532/771) vs. baseline 58.6% (481/821)), whereas the qualified rate in the intervention group showed an increase of 2.9% (mid-term 66.4% (469/706) vs. baseline 63.5% (508/800)). With the confounding adjusted in the difference-in-differences model, the increase of the qualified rate in the intervention group was 8.2% greater than that in the control group ( P= 0.021). The proportion of violent discipline by caregivers in the intervention group showed a decrease of 6.2% (mid-term 49.1% (478/973) vs. baseline 55.3% (554/1 001)), whereas the proportion in control group showed an increase of 4.5% (mid-term 58.4% (560/959) vs. baseline 53.9% (558/1 036)), and with the confounding adjusted in the difference-in-differences model, the difference in increase rate between two groups was 11.0% ( P= 0.001). The proportion of families with three or more children's books in the intervention group showed an increase of 12.7% (mid-term 42.7% (588/1 378) vs. baseline 30.0% (432/1 440)), whereas the proportion of the control group showed an increase of 4.2% (mid-term 25.7% (349/1 357) vs. baseline 21.5% (298/1 388)), and with the confounding adjusted in the difference-in-differences model, the difference in increase rate between two groups was 6.1% ( P= 0.007). Conclusions: The IECD intervention strategy implemented in rural China effectively improved the mental health of caregivers, optimizes families' child feeding and early stimulation behaviors, while reducing violent discipline and other risk factors. IECD provides better nurturing care for the early development of children aged 0-35 months in rural China.

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Where Does the Irrigation Water Go? An Estimate of the Contribution of Irrigation to Precipitation Using MERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wisser, Dominik; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Mocko, David M.

2013-01-01

Irrigation is an important human activity that may impact local and regional climate, but current climate model simulations and data assimilation systems generally do not explicitly include it. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows more irrigation signal in surface evapotranspiration (ET) than the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) because ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture according to the observed surface temperature and humidity while MERRA has no explicit consideration of irrigation at the surface. But, when compared with the results from a hydrological model with detailed considerations of agriculture, the ET from both reanalyses show large deficiencies in capturing the impact of irrigation. Here, a back-trajectory method is used to estimate the contribution of irrigation to precipitation over local and surrounding regions, using MERRA with observation-based corrections and added irrigation-caused ET increase from the hydrological model. Results show substantial contributions of irrigation to precipitation over heavily irrigated regions in Asia, but the precipitation increase is much less than the ET increase over most areas, indicating that irrigation could lead to water deficits over these regions. For the same increase in ET, precipitation increases are larger over wetter areas where convection is more easily triggered, but the percentage increase in precipitation is similar for different areas. There are substantial regional differences in the patterns of irrigation impact, but, for all the studied regions, the highest percentage contribution to precipitation is over local land.

On the use of programmable hardware and reduced numerical precision in earth-system modeling.

PubMed

Düben, Peter D; Russell, Francis P; Niu, Xinyu; Luk, Wayne; Palmer, T N

2015-09-01

Programmable hardware, in particular Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), promises a significant increase in computational performance for simulations in geophysical fluid dynamics compared with CPUs of similar power consumption. FPGAs allow adjusting the representation of floating-point numbers to specific application needs. We analyze the performance-precision trade-off on FPGA hardware for the two-scale Lorenz '95 model. We scale the size of this toy model to that of a high-performance computing application in order to make meaningful performance tests. We identify the minimal level of precision at which changes in model results are not significant compared with a maximal precision version of the model and find that this level is very similar for cases where the model is integrated for very short or long intervals. It is therefore a useful approach to investigate model errors due to rounding errors for very short simulations (e.g., 50 time steps) to obtain a range for the level of precision that can be used in expensive long-term simulations. We also show that an approach to reduce precision with increasing forecast time, when model errors are already accumulated, is very promising. We show that a speed-up of 1.9 times is possible in comparison to FPGA simulations in single precision if precision is reduced with no strong change in model error. The single-precision FPGA setup shows a speed-up of 2.8 times in comparison to our model implementation on two 6-core CPUs for large model setups.

Incorporation of zinc in MOCVD growth of Ga 0.5In 0.5P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtz, Sarah R.; Olson, J. M.; Kibbler, A. E.; Bertness, K. A.

1992-11-01

Data are presented for the Zn doping of Ga 0.5In 0.5P, showing that the hole and zinc concentrations increase almost linearly with zinc flow, and also increase with the V/III ratio and with growth rate at a fixed V/III ratio. These observations are consistent with other reports that show the incorporation of zinc to increase with V/III ratio for both GaAs and Ga 0.5In 0.5P deposition by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD). The growth-rate dependence of the zinc incorporation in Ga 0.5In 0.5P has not previously been reported. A model based on varying group V coverage of the step where zinc is most strongly bound is presented and compared with the data. The model predicts that the zinc incorporation increases with increasing phosphorus overpressure, but should be independent of group III overpressure in the parameter space investigated here.

Vegetation pattern formation in a fog-dependent ecosystem.

PubMed

Borthagaray, Ana I; Fuentes, Miguel A; Marquet, Pablo A

2010-07-07

Vegetation pattern formation is a striking characteristic of several water-limited ecosystems around the world. Typically, they have been described on runoff-based ecosystems emphasizing local interactions between water, biomass interception, growth and dispersal. Here, we show that this situation is by no means general, as banded patterns in vegetation can emerge in areas without rainfall and in plants without functional root (the Bromeliad Tillandsia landbeckii) and where fog is the principal source of moisture. We show that a simple model based on the advection of fog-water by wind and its interception by the vegetation can reproduce banded patterns which agree with empirical patterns observed in the Coastal Atacama Desert. Our model predicts how the parameters may affect the conditions to form the banded pattern, showing a transition from a uniform vegetated state, at high water input or terrain slope to a desert state throughout intermediate banded states. Moreover, the model predicts that the pattern wavelength is a decreasing non-linear function of fog-water input and slope, and an increasing function of plant loss and fog-water flow speed. Finally, we show that the vegetation density is increased by the formation of the regular pattern compared to the density expected by the spatially homogeneous model emphasizing the importance of self-organization in arid ecosystems. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An MDOE Assessment of Nozzle Vanes for High Bypass Ratio Jet Noise Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Brenda; Norum, Thomas; Bridges, James

2006-01-01

The effect of airfoil-shaped vanes placed in the fan stream of a BPR 8 coannular nozzle model system on the resulting jet noise was investigated. The experiments used a Modern Design of Experiments approach to investigate the impact of a range of vane parameters on the noise reduction achieved at representative takeoff conditions. The experimental results showed that the installation of the vanes decreased low frequency noise radiation in the downstream peak-noise direction and increased high frequency noise in the upstream direction. Results also showed that improper selection of the vane configuration resulted in increased low frequency noise radiation in the upstream direction. Large angles of attack are shown to reduce noise near the peak jet noise angle and increase noise in the upstream direction. The MDOE analysis yields an optimum design that minimizes perceived noise levels. Limited data taken with a BPR 5 nozzle system showed that the vanes result in better effective perceived noise reduction for lower bypass ratio nozzles than for the BPR 8 model.

Finite element modeling of superelastic nickel-titanium orthodontic wires.

PubMed

Naceur, Ines Ben; Charfi, Amin; Bouraoui, Tarak; Elleuch, Khaled

2014-11-28

Thanks to its good corrosion resistance and biocompatibility, superelastic Ni–Ti wire alloys have been successfully used in orthodontic treatment. Therefore, it is important to quantify and evaluate the level of orthodontic force applied to the bracket and teeth in order to achieve tooth movement. In this study, three dimensional finite element models with a Gibbs-potential-based-formulation and thermodynamic principles were used. The aim was to evaluate the influence of possible intraoral temperature differences on the forces exerted by NiTi orthodontic arch wires with different cross sectional shapes and sizes. The prediction made by this phenomenological model, for superelastic tensile and bending tests, shows good agreement with the experimental data. A bending test is simulated to study the force variation of an orthodontic NiTi arch wire when it loaded up to the deflection of 3 mm, for this task one half of the arch wire and the 3 adjacent brackets were modeled. The results showed that the stress required for the martensite transformation increases with the increase of cross-sectional dimensions and temperature. Associated with this increase in stress, the plateau of this transformation becomes steeper. In addition, the area of the mechanical hysteresis, measured as the difference between the forces of the upper and lower plateau, increases.

Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang; Slamet S, Lilik

2018-05-01

Climate change is one of the most important issues being discussed globally. It caused by global warming and indirectly affecting the world climate cycle. This research discussed the effect of climate change on rainfall pattern of Sambas District and predicted the future rainfall pattern due to climate change. CRU and TRMM were used and has been validated using in situ data. This research was used Climate Modelling and Prediction using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) which also validated by in situ data (correlation= 0.81). The results show that temperature trends in Sambas regency increased to 0.082°C/yr from 1991-2014 according to CRU data. High temperature trigger changes in rainfall patterns. Rainfall pattern in Sambas District has an equatorial type where the peak occurs when the sun is right on the equator. Rainfall in Sambas reaches the maximum in March and September when the equinox occurs. The CCAM model is used to project rainfall in Sambas District in the future. The model results show that rainfall in Sambas District is projected to increase to 0.018 mm/month until 2055 so the flow rate increase 0.006 m3/month and the water balance increase 0.009 mm/month.

A univariate model of river water nitrate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

1999-01-01

Four time series were taken from three catchments in the North and South of England. The sites chosen included two in predominantly agricultural catchments, one at the tidal limit and one downstream of a sewage treatment works. A time series model was constructed for each of these series as a means of decomposing the elements controlling river water nitrate concentrations and to assess whether this approach could provide a simple management tool for protecting water abstractions. Autoregressive (AR) modelling of the detrended and deseasoned time series showed a "memory effect". This memory effect expressed itself as an increase in the winter-summer difference in nitrate levels that was dependent upon the nitrate concentration 12 or 6 months previously. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modelling showed that one of the series contained seasonal, non-stationary elements that appeared as an increasing trend in the winter-summer difference. The ARMA model was used to predict nitrate levels and predictions were tested against data held back from the model construction process - predictions gave average percentage errors of less than 10%. Empirical modelling can therefore provide a simple, efficient method for constructing management models for downstream water abstraction.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Low cost biosorbent "banana peel" for the removal of phenolic compounds from olive mill wastewater: kinetic and equilibrium studies.

PubMed

Achak, M; Hafidi, A; Ouazzani, N; Sayadi, S; Mandi, L

2009-07-15

The aim of this work is to determine the potential of application of banana peel as a biosorbent for removing phenolic compounds from olive mill wastewaters. The effect of adsorbent dosage, pH and contact time were investigated. The results showed that the increase in the banana peel dosage from 10 to 30 g/L significantly increased the phenolic compounds adsorption rates from 60 to 88%. Increase in the pH to above neutrality resulted in the increase in the phenolic compounds adsorption capacity. The adsorption process was fast, and it reached equilibrium in 3-h contact time. The Freundlich and Langmuir adsorption models were used for mathematical description of the adsorption equilibrium and it was found that experimental data fitted very well to both Freundlich and Langmuir models. Batch adsorption models, based on the assumption of the pseudo-first-order, pseudo-second-order and intraparticle diffusion mechanism, showed that kinetic data follow closely the pseudo-second-order than the pseudo-first-order and intraparticle diffusion. Desorption studies showed that low pH value was efficient for desorption of phenolic compounds. These results indicate clearly the efficiency of banana peel as a low-cost solution for olive mill wastewaters treatment and give some preliminary elements for the comprehension of the interactions between banana peel as a bioadsorbent and the very polluting compounds from the olive oil industry.

The development of an erosive burning model for solid rocket motors using direct numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Brian A.

A method for developing an erosive burning model for use in solid propellant design-and-analysis interior ballistics codes is described and evaluated. Using Direct Numerical Simulation, the primary mechanisms controlling erosive burning (turbulent heat transfer, and finite rate reactions) have been studied independently through the development of models using finite rate chemistry, and infinite rate chemistry. Both approaches are calibrated to strand burn rate data by modeling the propellant burning in an environment with no cross-flow, and adjusting thermophysical properties until the predicted regression rate matches test data. Subsequent runs are conducted where the cross-flow is increased from M = 0.0 up to M = 0.8. The resulting relationship of burn rate increase versus Mach Number is used in an interior ballistics analysis to compute the chamber pressure of an existing solid rocket motor. The resulting predictions are compared to static test data. Both the infinite rate model and the finite rate model show good agreement when compared to test data. The propellant considered is an AP/HTPB with an average AP particle size of 37 microns. The finite rate model shows that as the cross-flow increases, near wall vorticity increases due to the lifting of the boundary caused by the side injection of gases from the burning propellant surface. The point of maximum vorticity corresponds to the outer edge of the APd-binder flame. As the cross-flow increases, the APd-binder flame thickness becomes thinner; however, the point of highest reaction rate moves only slightly closer to the propellant surface. As such, the net increase of heat transfer to the propellant surface due to finite rate chemistry affects is small. This leads to the conclusion that augmentation of thermal transport properties and the resulting heat transfer increase due to turbulence dominates over combustion chemistry in the erosive burning problem. This conclusion is advantageous in the development of future models that can be calibrated to heat transfer conditions without the necessity for finite rate chemistry. These results are considered applicable for propellants with small, evenly distributed AP particles where the assumption of premixed APd-binder gases is reasonable.

Measurement of the dynamic viscosity of hybrid engine oil -Cuo-MWCNT nanofluid, development of a practical viscosity correlation and utilizing the artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghaei, Alireza; Khorasanizadeh, Hossein; Sheikhzadeh, Ghanbar Ali

2018-01-01

The main objectives of this study have been measurement of the dynamic viscosity of CuO-MWCNTs/SAE 5w-50 hybrid nanofluid, utilization of artificial neural networks (ANN) and development of a new viscosity model. The new nanofluid has been prepared by a two-stage procedure with volume fractions of 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1%. Then, utilizing a Brookfield viscometer, its dynamic viscosity has been measured for temperatures of 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55 °C. The experimental results demonstrate that the viscosity increases by increasing the nanoparticles volume fraction and decreases by increasing temperature. Based on the experimental data the maximum and minimum nanofluid viscosity enhancements, when the volume fraction increases from 0.05 to 1, are 35.52% and 12.92% for constant temperatures of 55 and 15 °C, respectively. The higher viscosity of oil engine in higher temperatures is an advantage, thus this result is important. The measured nanofluid viscosity magnitudes in various shear rates show that this hybrid nanofluid is Newtonian. An ANN model has been employed to predict the viscosity of the CuO-MWCNTs/SAE 5w-50 hybrid nanofluid and the results showed that the ANN can estimate the viscosity efficiently and accurately. Eventually, for viscosity estimation a new temperature and volume fraction based third-degree polynomial empirical model has been developed. The comparison shows that this model is in good agreement with the experimental data.

Cloud Coverage Enhancement and Nocturnal Drizzle Suppression in Stratocumulus by Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew S.; Toon, Owen B.; Stevens, David E.; Coakley, James A., Jr.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Recent satellite observations of ship tracks surprisingly indicate that cloud water decreases with increasing droplet concentrations. However, we find by analyzing detailed simulations of stratocumulus that the reported trend is likely an artifact of sampling, only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud coverage increasing with droplet concentrations, accounting for 25% of cloud albedo increase at moderate droplet concentrations. Our simulations also show that increases in cloud water from drizzle suppression (by increasing droplet concentrations) are favored only at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations, suggesting that the indirect aerosol forcing is overestimated in climate change projections by many general circulation models.

Challenges in global modeling of wetland extent and wetland methane dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahni, R.; Melton, J. R.; Wania, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zürcher, S.; Joos, F.

2012-12-01

Global wetlands are known to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. Modelling of global wetland extent and wetland CH4 dynamics remains a challenge. Here we present results from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) that investigated our present ability to simulate large scale wetland characteristics (e.g. wetland type, water table, carbon cycling, gas transport, etc.) and corresponding CH4 emissions. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The WETCHIMP experiments showed that while models disagree in spatial and temporal patterns of simulated CH4 emissions and wetland areal extent, they all do agree on a strong positive response to increased carbon dioxide concentrations. WETCHIMP made clear that we currently lack observation data sets that are adequate to evaluate model CH4 soil-atmosphere fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells. Thus there are substantial parameter and structural uncertainties in large-scale CH4 emission models. As an illustration of the implications of CH4 emissions on climate we show results of the LPX-Bern model, as one of the models participating in WETCHIMP. LPX-Bern is forced with observed 20th century climate and climate output from an ensemble of five comprehensive climate models for a low and a high emission scenario till 2100 AD. In the high emission scenario increased substrate availability for methanogenesis due to a strong stimulation of net primary productivity, and faster soil turnover leads to an amplification of CH4 emissions with the sharpest increase in peatlands (+180% compared to present). Combined with prescribed anthropogenic CH4 emissions, simulated atmospheric CH4 concentration reaches ~4500 ppbv by 2100 AD, about 800 ppbv more than in standard IPCC scenarios. This represents a significant contribution to radiative forcing of global climate.

Using Dynamic Walking Models to Identify Factors that Contribute to Increased Risk of Falling in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

2013-01-01

Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of falling and to target those factors that influence fall risk most. PMID:24120280

Using dynamic walking models to identify factors that contribute to increased risk of falling in older adults.

PubMed

Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

2013-10-01

Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of falling and to target those factors that influence fall risk most. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Viscoelastic flow past mono- and bidisperse random arrays of cylinders: flow resistance, topology and normal stress distribution.

PubMed

De, S; Kuipers, J A M; Peters, E A J F; Padding, J T

2017-12-13

We investigate creeping viscoelastic fluid flow through two-dimensional porous media consisting of random arrangements of monodisperse and bidisperse cylinders, using our finite volume-immersed boundary method introduced in S. De, et al., J. Non-Newtonian Fluid Mech., 2016, 232, 67-76. The viscoelastic fluid is modeled with a FENE-P model. The simulations show an increased flow resistance with increase in flow rate, even though the bulk response of the fluid to shear flow is shear thinning. We show that if the square root of the permeability is chosen as the characteristic length scale in the determination of the dimensionless Deborah number (De), then all flow resistance curves collapse to a single master curve, irrespective of the pore geometry. Our study reveals how viscoelastic stresses and flow topologies (rotation, shear and extension) are distributed through the porous media, and how they evolve with increasing De. We correlate the local viscoelastic first normal stress differences with the local flow topology and show that the largest normal stress differences are located in shear flow dominated regions and not in extensional flow dominated regions at higher viscoelasticity. The study shows that normal stress differences in shear flow regions may play a crucial role in the increase of flow resistance for viscoelastic flow through such porous media.

Numerical modelling of physiological and ecological impacts of ocean acidification on coccolithophores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furukawa, Makoto; Sato, Toru; Suzuki, Yoshimi; Casareto, Beatriz E.; Hirabayashi, Shinichiro

2018-06-01

Ocean surface acidification due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently attracting much attention. Coccolithophores distribute widely across the world's oceans and represent a carbon sink containing about 100 million tonnes of carbon. For this reason, there is concern about dissolution of their shells, which are made of calcium carbonate, due to decreasing pH. In this study, intracellular calcification, photosynthesis, and mass transport through biomembranes of Emiliania huxleyi were modelled numerically for understanding biological response in calcifying organisms. Unknown parameters were optimised by a generic algorithm to match existing experimental results. The model showed that the production of calcium carbonate rather than its dissolution is promoted under an acidified environment. Calcite remains at saturation levels in a coccolith even when it is below saturation levels in the external seawater. Furthermore, a coccolith can dissolve even in water where calcite saturation exceeds 1, because the saturation may be below the threshold level locally around the cell membrane. The present model also showed that the different calcification rates of E. huxleyi with respect to rising CO2 concentrations reported in the literature are due to differences in experimental conditions; in particular, how the CO2 concentration is matched. Lastly, the model was able to reproduce differences in calcification rates among coccolithophore species. The above biochemical-kinetic model was then incorporated into an ecosystem model, and the behaviour of coccolithophores in the ecosystem and the influence of increases in CO2 concentration on water quality were simulated and validated by comparison with existing experimental results. The model also suggests that increased CO2 concentration could lead to an increase in the biomass ratio of coccolithophores to diatoms at high CO2 concentrations, particularly in oligotrophic environments, and to a consequent decrease in pH due to calcium dissolution.

Entrepreneurship education revisited: perceived entrepreneurial role models increase perceived behavioural control.

PubMed

Fellnhofer, Katharina

2017-01-01

Relying on Bandura's (1986) social learning theory, Ajzen's (1988) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), and Dyer's (1994) model of entrepreneurial careers, this study aims to highlight the potential of entrepreneurial role models to entrepreneurship education. The results suggest that entrepreneurial courses would greatly benefit from real-life experiences, either positive or negative. The results of regression analysis based on 426 individuals, primarily from Austria, Finland, and Greece, show that role models increase learners' entrepreneurial perceived behaviour control (PBC) by increasing their self-efficacy. This study can inform the research and business communities and governments about the importance of integrating entrepreneurs into education to stimulate entrepreneurial PBC. This study is the first of its kind using its approach, and its results warrant more in-depth studies of storytelling by entrepreneurial role models in the context of multimedia entrepreneurship education.

Value increasing business model for e-hospital.

PubMed

Null, Robert; Wei, June

2009-01-01

This paper developed a business value increasing model for electronic hospital (e-hospital) based on electronic value chain analysis. From this model, 58 hospital electronic business (e-business) solutions were developed. Additionally, this paper investigated the adoption patterns of these 58 e-business solutions within six US leading hospitals. The findings show that only 36 of 58 or 62% of the e-business solutions are fully or partially implemented within the six hospitals. Ultimately, the research results will be beneficial to managers and executives for accelerating e-business adoptions for e-hospital.

Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, Shao-Sheng R.; Allen Christopher S.

2010-01-01

Acoustic modeling can be used to identify key noise sources, determine/analyze sub-allocated requirements, keep track of the accumulation of minor noise sources, and to predict vehicle noise levels at various stages in vehicle development, first with estimates of noise sources, later with experimental data. This paper describes the implementation of acoustic modeling for design purposes by incrementally increasing model fidelity and validating the accuracy of the model while predicting the noise of sources under various conditions. During FY 07, a simple-geometry Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) model was developed and validated using a physical mockup and acoustic measurements. A process for modeling the effects of absorptive wall treatments and the resulting reverberation environment were developed. During FY 08, a model with more complex and representative geometry of the Orion Crew Module (CM) interior was built, and noise predictions based on input noise sources were made. A corresponding physical mockup was also built. Measurements were made inside this mockup, and comparisons were made with the model and showed excellent agreement. During FY 09, the fidelity of the mockup and corresponding model were increased incrementally by including a simple ventilation system. The airborne noise contribution of the fans was measured using a sound intensity technique, since the sound power levels were not known beforehand. This is opposed to earlier studies where Reference Sound Sources (RSS) with known sound power level were used. Comparisons of the modeling result with the measurements in the mockup showed excellent results. During FY 10, the fidelity of the mockup and the model were further increased by including an ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) wall, associated closeout panels, and the gap between ECLSS wall and mockup wall. The effect of sealing the gap and adding sound absorptive treatment to ECLSS wall were also modeled and validated.

Accelerated dissolution testing for controlled release microspheres using the flow-through dissolution apparatus.

PubMed

Collier, Jarrod W; Thakare, Mohan; Garner, Solomon T; Israel, Bridg'ette; Ahmed, Hisham; Granade, Saundra; Strong, Deborah L; Price, James C; Capomacchia, A C

2009-01-01

Theophylline controlled release capsules (THEO-24 CR) were used as a model system to evaluate accelerated dissolution tests for process and quality control and formulation development of controlled release formulations. Dissolution test acceleration was provided by increasing temperature, pH, flow rate, or adding surfactant. Electron microscope studies on the theophylline microspheres subsequent to each experiment showed that at pH values of 6.6 and 7.6 the microspheres remained intact, but at pH 8.6 they showed deterioration. As temperature was increased from 37-57 degrees C, no change in microsphere integrity was noted. Increased flow rate also showed no detrimental effect on integrity. The effect of increased temperature was determined to be the statistically significant variable.

Computational Models of Laryngeal Aerodynamics: Potentials and Numerical Costs.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Hossein; Kniesburges, Stefan; Kaltenbacher, Manfred; Schützenberger, Anne; Döllinger, Michael

2018-02-07

Human phonation is based on the interaction between tracheal airflow and laryngeal dynamics. This fluid-structure interaction is based on the energy exchange between airflow and vocal folds. Major challenges in analyzing the phonatory process in-vivo are the small dimensions and the poor accessibility of the region of interest. For improved analysis of the phonatory process, numerical simulations of the airflow and the vocal fold dynamics have been suggested. Even though most of the models reproduced the phonatory process fairly well, development of comprehensive larynx models is still a subject of research. In the context of clinical application, physiological accuracy and computational model efficiency are of great interest. In this study, a simple numerical larynx model is introduced that incorporates the laryngeal fluid flow. It is based on a synthetic experimental model with silicone vocal folds. The degree of realism was successively increased in separate computational models and each model was simulated for 10 oscillation cycles. Results show that relevant features of the laryngeal flow field, such as glottal jet deflection, develop even when applying rather simple static models with oscillating flow rates. Including further phonatory components such as vocal fold motion, mucosal wave propagation, and ventricular folds, the simulations show phonatory key features like intraglottal flow separation and increased flow rate in presence of ventricular folds. The simulation time on 100 CPU cores ranged between 25 and 290 hours, currently restricting clinical application of these models. Nevertheless, results show high potential of numerical simulations for better understanding of phonatory process. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change and water resources in northern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Lucas; Törnros, Tobias; Marberg, Ines

2014-05-01

Mongolia is facing a large number of water-related problems, such as adverse natural conditions, increasing water withdrawals, scarce environmental information and a lack of structures which control the appropriate distribution and protection of water. Since 2010, we conduct a monitoring programme in northern Mongolia which aims at better understanding the climatic characteristics, the freshwater generating processes as well as the impact of environmental change on the water resources in a semi-arid environment. Focus is on the meso-scaled Kharaa catchment (14,500 km²) north of Ulaanbaatar which includes the transition belt between the extended steppe ecotone, the Siberian taiga as well as the alpine tundra of the Khentii Mountains which act as the major freshwater generating area of the region. Based on the information gained during our field studies, we successfully applied the hydrological HBV-D model to simulate the discharge at the outlet of the basin and for a number of sub-basins. We could show that runoff within the study region is strongly influenced by the high climate variability. For example, the observed runoff in the basin shows a sudden decrease in the middle 1990s. At the same time, precipitation is decreasing and temperature is strongly increasing. The study is based on data from only six meteorological stations. Therefore, output from Global Climate Models has been considered as another potential data source. Accordingly, the HBV-D model was driven with WATCH forcing data for the years 1901-2000. This made it possible to simulate the runoff for years where no runoff observations exist. The results show that mean annual air temperature (MAT) has been strongly rising during the last 100 years (for example, between 1940 and 2001 MAT increased by 1.7°C) while precipitation shows strong, long-term oscillations. Accordingly, simulated mean annual discharge shows a high temporal variability with high fluctuations during the first half of the 20th century when air temperature was relatively low. Furthermore, in order to address the hydrological impacts of future climate change, the HBV-D model was applied on WATCH scenario data for the years 2001-2100, including the output from three GCMs driven by two IPCC emission scenarios. Results indicate that the clear increase of MAT is projected to continue over the coming 100 years while mean annual precipitation appears to slightly increase. However, simulated discharge shows a decrease, evidently as an effect of increasing evapotranspiration and possibly changing precipitation characteristics.

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Kerry A.

2013-01-01

A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

2015-03-01

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

The possible influences of the increasing anthropogenic emissions in India on tropospheric ozone and OH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu; Li, Weiliang; Zhou, Xiuji; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Sundet, J. K.; He, Jinhai

2003-11-01

A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the influences of the increasing anthropogenic emission in India. The model is capable of reproducing the observational results of the INDOEX experiment and the measurements in summer over India well. The model results show that when NO x and CO emissions in India are doubled, ozone concentration increases, and global average OH decreases a little. Under the effects of the Indian summer monsoon, NO x and CO in India are efficiently transported into the middle and upper troposphere by the upward current and the convective activities so that the NO x , CO, and ozone in the middle and upper troposphere significantly increase with the increasing NO x and CO emissions. These increases extensively influence a part of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and persist from June to September.

Deforestation intensifies hot days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, Paul C.

2018-05-01

Deforestation often increases land-surface and near-surface temperatures, but climate models struggle to simulate this effect. Research now shows that deforestation has increased the severity of extreme heat in temperate regions of North America and Europe. This points to opportunities to mitigate extreme heat.

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simplemore » topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.« less

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

DOE PAGES

Korkali, Mert; Veneman, Jason G.; Tivnan, Brian F.; ...

2017-03-20

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simplemore » topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.« less

Mortality trends due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Gazotto, Gabriel Pereira

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to update and analyze data on mortality trend due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Brazil. Initially, the specific COPD mortality rates were calculated from 1989 to 2009 using data collected from DATASUS (Departamento de Informática do SUS - Brazilian Health System Database). Then, the polynomial regression models from the observed functional relation were estimated based on mortality coefficients and study years. We verified that the general mortality rates due to COPD in Brazil showed an increasing trend from 1989 to 2004, and then decreased. Both genders showed the same increasing tendencies until 2004 and decreased thereafter. The age group under 35 years old showed a linear decreasing trend. All other age groups showed quadratic tendencies, with increases until the years of 1998-1999 and then decreasing. The South and Southeast regions showed the highest COPD mortality rates with increasing trends until the years 2001-2002 and then decreased. The North, Northeast and Central-West regions showed lower mortality rates but increasing trend. This is the first report of COPD mortality stabilization in Brazil since 1980.

Thermoplastic pultrusion development and characterization of residual in pultruded composites with modeling and experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamiyanaa, Khongor

Pultrusion processing is a technique to make highly aligned fiber reinforced polymer composites. Thermoset pultrusion is a mature process and well established, while thermoplastic pultrusion in still in its infancy. Thermoplastic pultrusion has not been well established because thermoplastic resins are difficult to process due to their high viscosity. However, thermoplastic resins offer distinct advantages that make thermoplastic pultrusion worth exploring. The present work centers on developing a method to design and validate a die for a thermoplastic pultrusion system. Analytical models and various software tools were used to design a pultrusion die. Experimental measurements have been made to validate the models. One-dimensional transient heat transfer analysis was used to calculate the time required for pre-impregnated E-Glass/Polypropylene tapes to melt and consolidate into profiled shapes. Creo Element/Pro 1.0 was used to design the die, while ANSYS Work Bench 14.0 was used to conduct heat transfer analysis to understand the temperature profile of the pultrusion apparatus. Additionally Star-CCM+ was used to create a three-dimensional fluid flow model to capture the molten polymer flow inside the pultrusion die. The fluid model was used to understand the temperature of the flow and the force required to pull the material at any given temperature and line speed. A complete pultrusion apparatus including the die, heating unit, cooling unit, and the frame has been designed and manufactured as guided by the models, and pultruded profiles have been successfully produced. The results show that the analytical model and the fluid model show excellent correlation. The predicted and measured pulling forces are in agreement and show that the pull force increases as the pull speed increases. Furthermore, process induced residual stress and its influence on dimensional instability, such as bending or bowing, on pultruded composites was analyzed. The study indicated that unbalanced layup can produce asymmetrical residual stress through the thickness and causes the part to bow. Furthermore, the residual stress through the thickness was mapped with excellent accuracy. A design of experiments around the processing parameters indicated that increase in pull speed or decrease in die temperature increased the residual stress within the part.

Self-assembly of micelles in organic solutions of lecithin and bile salt: Mesoscale computer simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markina, A.; Ivanov, V.; Komarov, P.; Khokhlov, A.; Tung, S.-H.

2016-11-01

We propose a coarse-grained model for studying the effects of adding bile salt to lecithin organosols by means of computer simulation. This model allows us to reveal the mechanisms of experimentally observed increasing of viscosity upon increasing the bile salt concentration. We show that increasing the bile salt to lecithin molar ratio induces the growth of elongated micelles of ellipsoidal and cylindrical shape due to incorporation of disklike bile salt molecules. These wormlike micelles can entangle into transient network displaying perceptible viscoelastic properties.

Barium-cross-linked alginate-gelatine microcapsule as a potential platform for stem cell production and modular tissue formation.

PubMed

Alizadeh Sardroud, Hamed; Nemati, Sorour; Baradar Khoshfetrat, Ali; Nabavinia, Mahbobeh; Beygi Khosrowshahi, Younes

2017-08-01

Influence of gelatine concentration and cross-linker ions of Ca 2+ and Ba 2+ was evaluated on characteristics of alginate hydrogels and proliferation behaviours of model adherent and suspendable stem cells of fibroblast and U937 embedded in alginate microcapsules. Increasing gelatine concentration to 2.5% increased extent of swelling to 15% and 25% for barium- and calcium-cross-linked hydrogels, respectively. Mechanical properties also decreased with increasing swelling of hydrogels. Both by increasing gelatine concentration and using barium ions increased considerably the proliferation of encapsulated model stem cells. Barium-cross-linked alginate-gelatine microcapsule tested for bone building block showed a 13.5 ± 1.5-fold expansion for osteoblast cells after 21 days with deposition of bone matrix. The haematopoietic stem cells cultured in the microcapsule after 7 days also showed up to 2-fold increase without adding any growth factor. The study demonstrates that barium-cross-linked alginate-gelatine microcapsule has potential for use as a simple and efficient 3D platform for stem cell production and modular tissue formation.

Modeling the Effect of Temperature on Ozone-Related Mortality.

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling the Effect of Temperature on Ozone-Related Mortality. Wilson, Ander, Reich, Brian J, Neas, Lucas M., Rappold, Ana G. Background: Previous studies show ozone and temperature are associated with increased mortality; however, the joint effect is not well explored. Underst...

Chronic exposure to water pollutant trichloroethylene increased epigenetic drift in CD4+ T cells

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Kathleen M; Blossom, Sarah J; Erickson, Stephen W; Reisfeld, Brad; Zurlinden, Todd J; Broadfoot, Brannon; West, Kirk; Bai, Shasha; Cooney, Craig A

2016-01-01

Aim: Autoimmune disease and CD4+ T-cell alterations are induced in mice exposed to the water pollutant trichloroethylene (TCE). We examined here whether TCE altered gene-specific DNA methylation in CD4+ T cells as a possible mechanism of immunotoxicity. Materials & methods: Naive and effector/memory CD4+ T cells from mice exposed to TCE (0.5 mg/ml in drinking water) for 40 weeks were examined by bisulfite next-generation DNA sequencing. Results: A probabilistic model calculated from multiple genes showed that TCE decreased methylation control in CD4+ T cells. Data from individual genes fitted to a quadratic regression model showed that TCE increased gene-specific methylation variance in both CD4 subsets. Conclusion: TCE increased epigenetic drift of specific CpG sites in CD4+ T cells. PMID:27092578

Energy and cost analysis of residential refrigerators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoskins, R.A.; Hirst, E.

1977-01-01

A detailed computer model is developed to calculate energy flows and electricity use for residential refrigerators. Model equations are derived from applications of the first law of thermodynamics, analysis of manufacturers' literature, and related studies. The model is used to evaluate the energy (and associated initial cost) impacts of alternative designs to reduce refrigerator energy use. Model results show that 56 percent of the total heat gain in a typical 0.45 m/sup 3/ (16 ft/sup 3/) top-freezer refrigerator is due to conduction through cabinet walls and doors. The remaining 44 percent is from door openings, heaters, fans, food, gasket areamore » infiltration, and miscellaneous heat sources. Operation of the compressor to remove this heat and maintain the refrigerated spaces at constant temperatures accounts for 70 percent of the unit's electricity use. The remainder is for operation of heaters and fans. Several energy-saving design changes are examined using the energy model. These changes are: increased insulation thickness, improved insulation conductivity, removal of fan from cooled area, use of anti-sweat heater switch, improved compressor efficiency, increased condenser and evaporator surface areas, and elimination of the frost-free feature. Application of all these changes would reduce refrigerator electricity use 71 percent and increase initial cost 5 percent. Implementing all these changes except for elimination of the frost-free feature would reduce electricity use 52 percent and increase initial cost 19 percent. These results show that there are large opportunities for reducing refrigerator electricity use with only slight initial cost increases.« less

The Decompression Sickness and Venous Gas Emboli Consequences of Air Breaks During 100% Oxygen Prebreathe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, J.; Gernhardt, M. L.; Powell, M. R.

2004-01-01

Not enough is known about the increased risk of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) and production of venous (VGE) and arterial (AGE) gas emboli following an air break in an otherwise normal 100% resting oxygen (O2) prebreathe (PB), and certainly a break in PB when exercise is used to accelerate nitrogen (N2) elimination from the tissues. Current Aeromedical Flight Rules at the Johnson Space Center about additional PB payback times are untested, possibly too conservative, and therefore not optimized for operational use. A 10 min air break at 90 min into a 120 min PB that includes initial dual-cycle ergometry for 10 min will show a measurable increase in the risk of DCS and VGE after ascent to 4.3 psia compared to a 10 min break at 15 min into the PB, or when there is no break in PB. Data collection with humans begins in 2005, but here we first evaluate the hypothesis using three models of tissue N2 kinetics: Model I is a simple single half-time compartment exponential model, Model II is a three compartment half-time exponential model, and Model III is a variable half-time compartment model where the percentage of maximum O2 consumption for the subject during dual-cycle ergometry exercise defines the half-time compartment. Model I with large rate constants to simulate an exercise effect always showed a late break in PB had the greatest consequence. Model II showed an early break had the greatest consequence. Model III showed there was no difference between early or late break in exercise PB. Only one of these outcomes will be observed when humans are tested. Our results will favor one of these models, and so advance our understanding of tissue N2 kinetics, and of altitude DCS after an air break in PB.

Complex messages regarding a thin ideal appearing in teenage girls' magazines from 1956 to 2005.

PubMed

Luff, Gina M; Gray, James J

2009-03-01

Seventeen and YM were assessed from 1956 through 2005 (n=312) to examine changes in the messages about thinness sent to teenage women. Trends were analyzed through an investigation of written, internal content focused on dieting, exercise, or both, while cover models were examined to explore fluctuations in body size. Pearson's Product correlations and weighted-least squares linear regression models were used to demonstrate changes over time. The frequency of written content related to exercise and combined plans increased in Seventeen, while a curvilinear relationship between time and content relating to dieting appeared. YM showed a linear increase in content related to dieting, exercise, and combined plans. Average cover model body size increased over time in YM while demonstrating no significant changes in Seventeen. Overall, more written messages about dieting and exercise appeared in teen's magazines in 2005 than before while the average cover model body size increased.

Thermal design and verification of an instrument cooling system for infrared detectors utilizing the Oxford Stirling cycle refrigerator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Werrett, Stephen; Seivold, Alfred L.

1990-01-01

A detailed nodal computer model was developed to thermally represent the hardware, and sensitivity studies were performed to evaluate design parameters and orbital environmental effects of an instrument cooling system for IR detectors. Thermal-vacuum testing showed excellent performance of the system and a correspondence with math model predictions to within 3 K. Results show cold stage temperature sensitivity to cold patch backload, outer stage external surface emittance degradation, and cold stage emittance degradation, respectively. The increase in backload on the cold patch over the mission lifetime is anticipated to be less than 3.0 watts, which translates to less than a 3-degree increase in detector temperatures.

Accelerated renal disease is associated with the development of metabolic syndrome in a glucolipotoxic mouse model

PubMed Central

Martínez-García, Cristina; Izquierdo, Adriana; Velagapudi, Vidya; Vivas, Yurena; Velasco, Ismael; Campbell, Mark; Burling, Keith; Cava, Fernando; Ros, Manuel; Orešič, Matej; Vidal-Puig, Antonio; Medina-Gomez, Gema

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Individuals with metabolic syndrome are at high risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) through unclear pathogenic mechanisms. Obesity and diabetes are known to induce glucolipotoxic effects in metabolically relevant organs. However, the pathogenic role of glucolipotoxicity in the aetiology of diabetic nephropathy is debated. We generated a murine model, the POKO mouse, obtained by crossing the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma 2 (PPARγ2) knockout (KO) mouse into a genetically obese ob/ob background. We have previously shown that the POKO mice showed: hyperphagia, insulin resistance, hyperglycaemia and dyslipidaemia as early as 4 weeks of age, and developed a complete loss of normal β-cell function by 16 weeks of age. Metabolic phenotyping of the POKO model has led to investigation of the structural and functional changes in the kidney and changes in blood pressure in these mice. Here we demonstrate that the POKO mouse is a model of renal disease that is accelerated by high levels of glucose and lipid accumulation. Similar to ob/ob mice, at 4 weeks of age these animals exhibited an increased urinary albumin:creatinine ratio and significantly increased blood pressure, but in contrast showed a significant increase in the renal hypertrophy index and an associated increase in p27Kip1 expression compared with their obese littermates. Moreover, at 4 weeks of age POKO mice showed insulin resistance, an alteration of lipid metabolism and glomeruli damage associated with increased transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) and parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP) expression. At this age, levels of proinflammatory molecules, such as monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and fibrotic factors were also increased at the glomerular level compared with levels in ob/ob mice. At 12 weeks of age, renal damage was fully established. These data suggest an accelerated lesion through glucolipotoxic effects in the renal pathogenesis in POKO mice. PMID:22773754

Accelerated renal disease is associated with the development of metabolic syndrome in a glucolipotoxic mouse model.

PubMed

Martínez-García, Cristina; Izquierdo, Adriana; Velagapudi, Vidya; Vivas, Yurena; Velasco, Ismael; Campbell, Mark; Burling, Keith; Cava, Fernando; Ros, Manuel; Oresic, Matej; Vidal-Puig, Antonio; Medina-Gomez, Gema

2012-09-01

Individuals with metabolic syndrome are at high risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) through unclear pathogenic mechanisms. Obesity and diabetes are known to induce glucolipotoxic effects in metabolically relevant organs. However, the pathogenic role of glucolipotoxicity in the aetiology of diabetic nephropathy is debated. We generated a murine model, the POKO mouse, obtained by crossing the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma 2 (PPARγ2) knockout (KO) mouse into a genetically obese ob/ob background. We have previously shown that the POKO mice showed: hyperphagia, insulin resistance, hyperglycaemia and dyslipidaemia as early as 4 weeks of age, and developed a complete loss of normal β-cell function by 16 weeks of age. Metabolic phenotyping of the POKO model has led to investigation of the structural and functional changes in the kidney and changes in blood pressure in these mice. Here we demonstrate that the POKO mouse is a model of renal disease that is accelerated by high levels of glucose and lipid accumulation. Similar to ob/ob mice, at 4 weeks of age these animals exhibited an increased urinary albumin:creatinine ratio and significantly increased blood pressure, but in contrast showed a significant increase in the renal hypertrophy index and an associated increase in p27(Kip1) expression compared with their obese littermates. Moreover, at 4 weeks of age POKO mice showed insulin resistance, an alteration of lipid metabolism and glomeruli damage associated with increased transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) and parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP) expression. At this age, levels of proinflammatory molecules, such as monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and fibrotic factors were also increased at the glomerular level compared with levels in ob/ob mice. At 12 weeks of age, renal damage was fully established. These data suggest an accelerated lesion through glucolipotoxic effects in the renal pathogenesis in POKO mice.

The influence of material anisotropy on vibration at onset in a three-dimensional vocal fold model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhaoyan

2014-01-01

Although vocal folds are known to be anisotropic, the influence of material anisotropy on vocal fold vibration remains largely unknown. Using a linear stability analysis, phonation onset characteristics were investigated in a three-dimensional anisotropic vocal fold model. The results showed that isotropic models had a tendency to vibrate in a swing-like motion, with vibration primarily along the superior-inferior direction. Anterior-posterior (AP) out-of-phase motion was also observed and large vocal fold vibration was confined to the middle third region along the AP length. In contrast, increasing anisotropy or increasing AP-transverse stiffness ratio suppressed this swing-like motion and allowed the vocal fold to vibrate in a more wave-like motion with strong medial-lateral motion over the entire medial surface. Increasing anisotropy also suppressed the AP out-of-phase motion, allowing the vocal fold to vibrate in phase along the entire AP length. Results also showed that such improvement in vibration pattern was the most effective with large anisotropy in the cover layer alone. These numerical predictions were consistent with previous experimental observations using self-oscillating physical models. It was further hypothesized that these differences may facilitate complete glottal closure in finite-amplitude vibration of anisotropic models as observed in recent experiments. PMID:24606284

Modelling of fluoride removal via batch monopolar electrocoagulation process using aluminium electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amri, N.; Hashim, M. I.; Ismail, N.; Rohman, F. S.; Bashah, N. A. A.

2017-09-01

Electrocoagulation (EC) is a promising technology that extensively used to remove fluoride ions efficiently from industrial wastewater. However, it has received very little consideration and understanding on mechanism and factors that affecting the fluoride removal process. In order to determine the efficiency of fluoride removal in EC process, the effect of operating parameters such as voltage and electrolysis time were investigated in this study. A batch experiment with monopolar aluminium electrodes was conducted to identify the model of fluoride removal using empirical model equation. The EC process was investigated using several parameters which include voltage (3 - 12 V) and electrolysis time (0 - 60 minutes) at a constant initial fluoride concentration of 25 mg/L. The result shows that the fluoride removal efficiency increased steadily with increasing voltage and electrolysis time. The best fluoride removal efficiency was obtained with 94.8 % removal at 25 mg/L initial fluoride concentration, voltage of 12 V and 60 minutes electrolysis time. The results indicated that the rate constant, k and number of order, n decreased as the voltage increased. The rate of fluoride removal model was developed based on the empirical model equation using the correlation of k and n. Overall, the result showed that EC process can be considered as a potential alternative technology for fluoride removal in wastewater.

Statistical analysis of temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorentzen, Torbjørn

2014-02-01

The paper analyzes sea temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea. The data cover the period 1948-2010. The following questions are addressed: What type of stochastic process characterizes the temperature series? Are there any changes or patterns which indicate climate change? Are there any characteristics in the data which can be linked to the shrinking sea-ice in the Arctic area? Can the series be modeled consistently and applied in forecasting of the future sea temperature? The paper applies the following methods: Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for testing of unit-root and stationarity, ARIMA-models in univariate modeling, cointegration and error-correcting models are applied in estimating short- and long-term dynamics of non-stationary series, Granger-causality tests in analyzing the interaction pattern between the deep and upper layer temperatures, and simultaneous equation systems are applied in forecasting future temperature. The paper shows that temperature at 2000 m Granger-causes temperature at 150 m, and that the 2000 m series can represent an important information carrier of the long-term development of the sea temperature in the geographical area. Descriptive statistics shows that the temperature level has been on a positive trend since the beginning of the 1980s which is also measured in most of the oceans in the North Atlantic. The analysis shows that the temperature series are cointegrated which means they share the same long-term stochastic trend and they do not diverge too far from each other. The measured long-term temperature increase is one of the factors that can explain the shrinking summer sea-ice in the Arctic region. The analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the shrinking sea ice and the sea temperature at Station-M. The paper shows that the temperature forecasts are conditioned on the properties of the stochastic processes, causality pattern between the variables and specification of model, respectively. The estimated models forecast that temperature at 150 m is expected to increase by 0.018 °C per year, while deep water temperature at 2000 m is expected to increase between 0.0022 and 0.0024 °C per year.

The Effect of Afterbody Length of the Hydrodynamic Stability of a Dynamic Model of a Flying Boat: Langley Tank Model 134

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Land, Norman S

1945-01-01

A program of model tests has been completed at Langley tank no. 1 which will furnish a qualitative guide as to the relation of length of afterbody and depth of step. The model used for the tests was a l/12-size unpowered dynamic model of a hypothetical 160,000-pound airplane. The results showed that an increase in length of afterbody requires an accompanying increase in depth of step to maintain adequate landing stability. Changing the length of afterbody and depth of step in such a manner as to maintain a given landing stability will result in only small changes in take-off stability.

Workplace field testing of the pressure drop of particulate respirators using welding fumes.

PubMed

Cho, Hyun-Woo; Yoon, Chung-Sik

2012-10-01

In a previous study, we concluded that respirator testing with a sodium chloride aerosol gave a conservative estimate of filter penetration for welding fume aerosols. A rapid increase in the pressure drop (PD) of some respirators was observed as fumes accumulated on the filters. The present study evaluated particulate respirator PD based on workplace field tests. A field PD tester was designed and validated using the TSI 8130 Automatic Filter Tester, designed in compliance with National Institute for Occupational and Safety and Health regulation 42 CFR part 84. Three models (two replaceable dual-type filters and one replaceable single-type filter) were evaluated against CO(2) gas arc welding on mild steel in confined booths in the workplace. Field tests were performed under four airborne concentrations (27.5, 15.4, 7.9, and 2.1 mg m(-3)). The mass concentration was measured by the gravimetric method, and number concentration was monitored using P-Trak (Model 8525, TSI, USA). Additionally, photos and scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to visualize and analyze the composition of welding fumes trapped in the filters. The field PD tester showed no significant difference compared with the TSI tester. There was no significant difference in the initial PD between laboratory and field results. The PD increased as a function of fume load on the respirator filters for all tested models. The increasing PD trend differed by models, and PD increased rapidly at high concentrations because greater amount of fumes accumulated on the filters in a given time. The increase in PD as a function of fume load on the filters showed a similar pattern as fume load varied for a particular model, but different patterns were observed for different models. Images and elemental analyses of fumes trapped on the respirator filters showed that most welding fumes were trapped within the first layer, outer web cover, and second layer, in order, while no fumes were observed beneath the fourth layer of the tested respirators. The current findings contribute substantially to our understanding of respirator PD in the presence of welding fumes.

Lessons from a Train-the-Trainer Professional Development Program: The Sustainable Trainer Engagement Program (STEP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shupla, Christine; Gladney, Alicia; Dalton, Heather; LaConte, Keliann; Truxillo, Jeannette; Shipp, Stephanie

2015-11-01

The Sustainable Trainer Engagement Program (STEP) is a modified train-the-trainer professional development program being conducted by the Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI). STEP has provided two cohorts of 6-8th grade science specialists and lead teachers in the Houston region with in-depth Earth and Space Science (ESS) content, activities, and pedagogy over 15 days each, aligned with Texas science standards. This project has two over-arching goals: to improve middle school ESS instruction, and to create and test an innovative model for Train-the-Trainer.This poster will share details regarding STEP’s activities and resources, program achievements, and its main findings to date. STEP is being evaluated by external evaluators at the Research Institute of Texas, part of the Harris County Department of Education. External evaluation shows an increase after one year in STEP participants’ knowledge (cohort 1 showed a 10% increase; cohort 2 showed a 20% increase), confidence in teaching Earth and Space Science effectively (cohort 1 demonstrated a 10% increase; cohort 2 showed a 20% increase), and confidence in preparing other teachers (cohort 1 demonstrated a 12% increase; cohort 2 showed a 20% increase). By September 2015, STEP participants led (or assisted in leading) approximately 40 workshops for about 1800 science teachers in Texas. Surveys of teachers attending professional development conducted by STEP participants show very positive responses, with averages for conference workshop evaluations ranging from 3.6 on a 4 point scale, and other evaluations averaging from 4.1 to 5.0 on a 5 point scale.Main lessons for the team on the train-the-trainer model include: a lack of confidence by leaders in K-12 science education in presenting ESS professional development, difficulties in arranging for school or district content-specific professional development, the minimal duration of most school and district professional development sessions, and uncertainties in partnerships between scientists and educators.

Vertical profiles of nitrous acid in the nocturnal urban atmosphere of Houston, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, K. W.; Oh, H.-J.; Lefer, B.; Rappenglück, B.; Stutz, J.

2010-12-01

Nitrous acid (HONO) often plays an important role in tropospheric photochemistry as a major precursor of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in early morning hours and potentially during the day. However, the processes leading to formation of HONO and its vertical distribution at night, which can have a considerable impact on daytime ozone formation, are currently poorly characterized by observations and models. Long-path differential optical absorption spectroscopy (LP-DOAS) measurements of HONO during the 2006 TexAQS II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP), near downtown Houston, TX, show nocturnal vertical profiles of HONO, with mixing ratios of up to 2.2 ppb near the surface and below 100 ppt aloft. Three nighttime periods of HONO, NO2 and O3 observations during TRAMP were used to perform model simulations of vertical mixing ratio profiles. By adjusting vertical mixing and NOx emissions the modeled NO2 and O3 mixing ratios showed very good agreement with the observations. Using a simple conversion of NO2 to HONO on the ground, direct HONO emissions, as well as HONO loss at the ground and on aerosol, the observed HONO profiles were reproduced well by the model. The unobserved increase of HONO to NO2 ratio (HONO/NO2) with altitude that was simulated by the initial model runs was found to be due to HONO uptake being too small on aerosol and too large on the ground. Refined model runs, with adjusted HONO uptake coefficients, showed much better agreement of HONO and HONO/NO2 for two typical nights, except during morning rush hour, when other HONO formation pathways are most likely active. One of the nights analyzed showed increase of HONO mixing ratios together with decreasing NO2 mixing ratios that the model was unable to reproduce, most likely due to the impact of weak precipitation during this night. HONO formation and removal rates averaged over the lowest 300 m of the atmosphere showed that NO2 to HONO conversion on the ground was the dominant source of HONO, followed by traffic emission. Aerosol did not play an important role in HONO formation. Although ground deposition was also a major removal pathway of HONO, net HONO production at the ground was the main source of HONO in our model studies. Sensitivity studies showed that in the stable NBL, net HONO production at the ground tends to increase with faster vertical mixing and stronger emission. Vertical transport was found to be the dominant source of HONO aloft.

Oral fish oil positively influences nutritional-inflammatory risk in patients with haematological malignancies during chemotherapy with an impact on long-term survival: a randomised clinical trial.

PubMed

Chagas, T R; Borges, D S; de Oliveira, P F; Mocellin, M C; Barbosa, A M; Camargo, C Q; Del Moral, J Â G; Poli, A; Calder, P C; Trindade, E B S M; Nunes, E A

2017-12-01

Studies suggest that the ingestion of fish oil (FO), a source of the omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), can reduce the deleterious side-effects of chemotherapy. The aim of this randomised clinical trial was to evaluate the effect of supplementation with oral FO for 9 weeks on nutritional parameters and inflammatory nutritional risk in patients with haematological malignancies during the beginning of chemotherapy. Twenty-two patients with leukaemia or lymphoma were randomised to the unsupplemented group (UG) (n = 13) or supplemented group (SG) (n = 9). SG received 2 g/day of fish oil for 9 weeks. Nutritional status, serum acute-phase proteins and plasma fatty acids were evaluated before (T0) and after (T1) the intervention period. Data were analysed using two models; model 1, comprising data from all patients included in the study, and model 2, comprising data from UG patients with no increase in the proportions of EPA and DHA in plasma and data from SG patients showing an at least 100% increase in plasma EPA and DHA. SG showed an increased plasma proportion of EPA and DHA in both models. In model 2, C-reactive protein (CRP) and CRP/albumin ratio showed larger reductions in the SG. Overall long-term survival in both models (465 days after the start of the chemotherapy) was higher in the group ingesting fish oil (P < 0.05). These findings indicate an improved nutritional-inflammatory risk and potential effects on long-term survival in patients with haematological malignancies supplemented with FO during the beginning of chemotherapy. © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

PubMed

Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Role of CO 2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Fang; Zeng, Ning; Asrar, Ghassem

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations.more » However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.« less

Role of CO 2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Fang; Zeng, Ning; Asrar, Ghassem; ...

2016-09-14

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations.more » However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.« less

Particle force model effects in a shock-driven multiphase instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, W. J.; Denissen, N.; McFarland, J. A.

2018-05-01

This work presents simulations on a shock-driven multiphase instability (SDMI) at an initial particle volume fraction of 1% with the addition of a suite of particle force models applicable in dense flows. These models include pressure-gradient, added-mass, and interparticle force terms in an effort to capture the effects neighboring particles have in non-dilute flow regimes. Two studies are presented here: the first seeks to investigate the individual contributions of the force models, while the second study focuses on examining the effect of these force models on the hydrodynamic evolution of a SDMI with various particle relaxation times (particle sizes). In the force study, it was found that the pressure gradient and interparticle forces have little effect on the instability under the conditions examined, while the added-mass force decreases the vorticity deposition and alters the morphology of the instability. The relaxation-time study likewise showed a decrease in metrics associated with the evolution of the SDMI for all sizes when the particle force models were included. The inclusion of these models showed significant morphological differences in both the particle and carrier species fields, which increased as particle relaxation times increased.

Iron-Hepcidin Dysmetabolism, Anemia and Renal Hypoxia, Inflammation and Fibrosis in the Remnant Kidney Rat Model

PubMed Central

Garrido, Patrícia; Ribeiro, Sandra; Fernandes, João; Vala, Helena; Bronze-da-Rocha, Elsa; Rocha-Pereira, Petronila; Belo, Luís; Costa, Elísio; Santos-Silva, Alice; Reis, Flávio

2015-01-01

Anemia is a common complication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that develops early and its severity increases as renal function declines. It is mainly due to a reduced production of erythropoietin (EPO) by the kidneys; however, there are evidences that iron metabolism disturbances increase as CKD progresses. Our aim was to study the mechanisms underlying the development of anemia of CKD, as well as renal damage, in the remnant kidney rat model of CKD induced by 5/6 nephrectomy. This model of CKD presented a sustained degree of renal dysfunction, with mild and advanced glomerular and tubulointerstitial lesions. Anemia developed 3 weeks after nephrectomy and persisted throughout the protocol. The remnant kidney was still able to produce EPO and the liver showed an increased EPO gene expression. In spite of the increased EPO blood levels, anemia persisted and was linked to low serum iron and transferrin levels, while serum interleukin (IL)-6 and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels showed the absence of systemic inflammation. The increased expression of duodenal ferroportin favours iron absorption; however, serum iron is reduced which might be due to iron leakage through advanced kidney lesions, as showed by tubular iron accumulation. Our data suggest that the persistence of anemia may result from disturbances in iron metabolism and by an altered activity/function of EPO as a result of kidney cell damage and a local inflammatory milieu, as showed by the increased gene expression of different inflammatory proteins in the remnant kidney. In addition, this anemia and the associated kidney hypoxia favour the development of fibrosis, angiogenesis and inflammation that may underlie a resistance to EPO stimuli and reduced iron availability. These findings might contribute to open new windows to identify putative therapeutic targets for this condition, as well as for recombinant human EPO (rHuEPO) resistance, which occurs in a considerable percentage of CKD patients. PMID:25867633

Theory of optical transitions in conjugated polymers. II. Real systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcus, Max; Tozer, Oliver Robert; Barford, William

2014-10-01

The theory of optical transitions developed in Barford and Marcus ["Theory of optical transitions in conjugated polymers. I. Ideal systems," J. Chem. Phys. 141, 164101 (2014)] for linear, ordered polymer chains is extended in this paper to model conformationally disordered systems. Our key result is that in the Born-Oppenheimer regime the emission intensities are proportional to S(1)/⟨IPR⟩, where S(1) is the Huang-Rhys parameter for a monomer. ⟨IPR⟩ is the average inverse participation ratio for the emitting species, i.e., local exciton ground states (LEGSs). Since the spatial coherence of LEGSs determines the spatial extent of chromophores, the significance of this result is that it directly relates experimental observables to chromophore sizes (where ⟨IPR⟩ is half the mean chromophore size in monomer units). This result is independent of the chromophore shape, because of the Born-Oppenheimer factorization of the many body wavefunction. We verify this prediction by density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) calculations of the Frenkel-Holstein model in the adiabatic limit for both linear, disordered chains and for coiled, ordered chains. We also model optical spectra for poly(p-phenylene) and poly(p-phenylene-vinylene) oligomers and polymers. For oligomers, we solve the fully quantized Frenkel-Holstein model via the DMRG method. For polymers, we use the much simpler method of solving the one-particle Frenkel model and employ the Born-Oppenheimer expressions relating the effective Franck-Condon factor of a chromophore to its inverse participation ratio. We show that increased disorder decreases chromophore sizes and increases the inhomogeneous broadening, but has a non-monotonic effect on transition energies. We also show that as planarizing the polymer chain increases the exciton band width, it causes the chromophore sizes to increase, the transition energies to decrease, and the broadening to decrease. Finally, we show that the absorption spectra are more broadened than the emission spectra and that the broadening of the absorption spectra increases as the chains become more coiled. This is primarily because absorption occurs to both LEGSs and quasi-extended exciton states (QEESs), and QEES acquire increased intensity as chromophores bend, while emission only occurs from LEGSs.

Complete devil's staircase and crystal-superfluid transitions in a dipolar XXZ spin chain: a trapped ion quantum simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauke, Philipp; Cucchietti, Fernando M.; Müller-Hermes, Alexander; Bañuls, Mari-Carmen; Cirac, J. Ignacio; Lewenstein, Maciej

2010-11-01

Systems with long-range interactions show a variety of intriguing properties: they typically accommodate many metastable states, they can give rise to spontaneous formation of supersolids, and they can lead to counterintuitive thermodynamic behavior. However, the increased complexity that comes with long-range interactions strongly hinders theoretical studies. This makes a quantum simulator for long-range models highly desirable. Here, we show that a chain of trapped ions can be used to quantum simulate a one-dimensional (1D) model of hard-core bosons with dipolar off-site interaction and tunneling, equivalent to a dipolar XXZ spin-1/2 chain. We explore the rich phase diagram of this model in detail, employing perturbative mean-field theory, exact diagonalization and quasi-exact numerical techniques (density-matrix renormalization group and infinite time-evolving block decimation). We find that the complete devil's staircase—an infinite sequence of crystal states existing at vanishing tunneling—spreads to a succession of lobes similar to the Mott lobes found in Bose-Hubbard models. Investigating the melting of these crystal states at increased tunneling, we do not find (contrary to similar 2D models) clear indications of supersolid behavior in the region around the melting transition. However, we find that inside the insulating lobes there are quasi-long-range (algebraic) correlations, as opposed to models with nearest-neighbor tunneling, that show exponential decay of correlations.

High-performance biocomputing for simulating the spread of contagion over large contact networks

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Many important biological problems can be modeled as contagion diffusion processes over interaction networks. This article shows how the EpiSimdemics interaction-based simulation system can be applied to the general contagion diffusion problem. Two specific problems, computational epidemiology and human immune system modeling, are given as examples. We then show how the graphics processing unit (GPU) within each compute node of a cluster can effectively be used to speed-up the execution of these types of problems. Results We show that a single GPU can accelerate the EpiSimdemics computation kernel by a factor of 6 and the entire application by a factor of 3.3, compared to the execution time on a single core. When 8 CPU cores and 2 GPU devices are utilized, the speed-up of the computational kernel increases to 9.5. When combined with effective techniques for inter-node communication, excellent scalability can be achieved without significant loss of accuracy in the results. Conclusions We show that interaction-based simulation systems can be used to model disparate and highly relevant problems in biology. We also show that offloading some of the work to GPUs in distributed interaction-based simulations can be an effective way to achieve increased intra-node efficiency. PMID:22537298

Red Brain, Blue Brain: Evaluative Processes Differ in Democrats and Republicans

PubMed Central

Schreiber, Darren; Fonzo, Greg; Simmons, Alan N.; Dawes, Christopher T.; Flagan, Taru; Fowler, James H.; Paulus, Martin P.

2013-01-01

Liberals and conservatives exhibit different cognitive styles and converging lines of evidence suggest that biology influences differences in their political attitudes and beliefs. In particular, a recent study of young adults suggests that liberals and conservatives have significantly different brain structure, with liberals showing increased gray matter volume in the anterior cingulate cortex, and conservatives showing increased gray matter volume in the in the amygdala. Here, we explore differences in brain function in liberals and conservatives by matching publicly-available voter records to 82 subjects who performed a risk-taking task during functional imaging. Although the risk-taking behavior of Democrats (liberals) and Republicans (conservatives) did not differ, their brain activity did. Democrats showed significantly greater activity in the left insula, while Republicans showed significantly greater activity in the right amygdala. In fact, a two parameter model of partisanship based on amygdala and insula activations yields a better fitting model of partisanship than a well-established model based on parental socialization of party identification long thought to be one of the core findings of political science. These results suggest that liberals and conservatives engage different cognitive processes when they think about risk, and they support recent evidence that conservatives show greater sensitivity to threatening stimuli. PMID:23418419

Mathematical model of macrophage-facilitated breast cancer cells invasion.

PubMed

Knútsdóttir, Hildur; Pálsson, Eirikur; Edelstein-Keshet, Leah

2014-09-21

Mortality from breast cancer stems from its tendency to invade into surrounding tissues and organs. Experiments have shown that this metastatic process is facilitated by macrophages in a short-ranged chemical signalling loop. Macrophages secrete epidermal growth factor, EGF, and respond to the colony stimulating factor 1, CSF-1. Tumor cells secrete CSF-1 and respond to EGF. In this way, the cells coordinate aggregation and cooperative migration. Here we investigate this process in a model for in vitro interactions using two distinct but related mathematical approaches. In the first, we analyze and simulate a set of partial differential equations to determine conditions for aggregation. In the second, we use a cell-based discrete 3D simulation to follow the fates and motion of individual cells during aggregation. Linear stability analysis of the PDE model reveals that decreasing the chemical secretion, chemotaxis coefficients or density of cells or increasing the chemical degradation in the model could eliminate the spontaneous aggregation of cells. Simulations with the discrete model show that the ratio between tumor cells and macrophages in aggregates increases when the EGF secretion parameter is increased. The results also show how CSF-1/CSF-1R autocrine signalling in tumor cells affects the ratio between the two cell types. Comparing the continuum results with simulations of a discrete cell-based model, we find good qualitative agreement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Helper effects on breeder allocations to direct care.

PubMed

Kushnick, Geoff

2012-01-01

Mothers receive childcare and productive assistance from allomaternal helpers in many societies. Although much effort has been aimed toward showing helper effects on maternal reproductive success, less has been directed toward highlighting the full range of potential effects on breeder behavior. I present a model of optimal maternal care with helpers, and tests of derived hypotheses with data collected among the Karo Batak-a group of Indonesian agriculturalists. To test the model's predictions I compared the effect of women receiving help from patrilateral versus matrilateral kin because those kin may provide help with different maternal responsibilities. The model predicts a decrease in maternal allocation to care that is substitutable with the helper contribution and the helper assists with that type of care; it predicts an increase in care that is nonsubstitutable with the helper contribution or substitutable care when the helper assists with other responsibilities. With the exception of one other, most models have failed to account for an increase. Analyses of time spent carrying children supported the model. With matrilateral helpers, women increased carrying; with patrilateral helpers, they decreased it. Time spent farmworking showed the opposite pattern, suggesting that matrilateral helpers effectively decrease costs, nudging optimal maternal care upward. Patterns of breastfeeding provided little support for the model. The results do, however, suggest potential proximate mechanisms by which helpers influence maternal reproductive success in cooperative breeding societies. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fewer not more leaves - Key to obtaining the needed jump in crop yield potential and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Kumar, P.; Long, S.

2013-12-01

Word food and feed supply needs to increase by 75% by 2050 to meet the increasing demands of our growing population. Soybean which is the world`s fourth most important crop in terms of total production at 250 million Mt/yr is a key protein source, and together with rice and wheat, are experiencing declining global yield increases year on year. At present rates of improvement, 2050 targets cannot be reached without new innovations. In this study we demonstrate an innovative approach that could provide a yield jump. While, natural selection favors individual plants to maximize leaf production to maximize light interception and shade competitors, the presence of this trait in domestic crops could be disadvantageous. In addition, rising CO2 causes increased leaf production further exacerbating the problem. Here, we show by mathematical model and field experiment that, a modern cultivar growing at the center of US soy cultivation produces too many leaves and reduction to an optimal level would increase yield. Our model results indicate that an LAI of 3.5 and 3.8 produces maximal rates of net canopy assimilation under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions respectively. However, observed peak LAI values are 6.9 and 7.5 under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions respectively. This results in a NPP loss of 30% and 20% under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions respectively. Furthermore, the optimal LAI results in a decreased transpiration of up to 30% thus increasing water use efficiency. We show that as LAI increases, the tradeoffs between diminishing day time gains in NPP, and increasing losses in respiration is responsible for this effect. By designing a more optimum canopy, we can increase NPP and this potentially translates to increased seed yield. To test this model result, we perform canopy manipulation experiments on soybean plants, where we artificially decrease LAI by periodically removing young and emerging leaves throughout the growing season (after pod onset), and measure the seed yield under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions. Our experimental results show that an LAI reduction of 0.5 results in an increased seed yield of 8.1% validating our model results. We propose that, by achieving a stronger LAI reduction, we can improve seed yields by up to 24% providing the much needed jump in yield to achieve future food security.

Modeling of a resonant heat engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

2012-12-01

A resonant heat engine in which the piston assembly is replaced by a sealed elastic cavity is modeled and analyzed. A nondimensional lumped-parameter model is derived and used to investigate the factors that control the performance of the engine. The thermal efficiency predicted by the model agrees with that predicted from the relation for the Otto cycle based on compression ratio. The predictions show that for a fixed mechanical load, increasing the heat input results in increased efficiency. The output power and power density are shown to depend on the loading for a given heat input. The loading condition for maximum output power is different from that required for maximum power density.

A Deep and Autoregressive Approach for Topic Modeling of Multimodal Data.

PubMed

Zheng, Yin; Zhang, Yu-Jin; Larochelle, Hugo

2016-06-01

Topic modeling based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) has been a framework of choice to deal with multimodal data, such as in image annotation tasks. Another popular approach to model the multimodal data is through deep neural networks, such as the deep Boltzmann machine (DBM). Recently, a new type of topic model called the Document Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (DocNADE) was proposed and demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for text document modeling. In this work, we show how to successfully apply and extend this model to multimodal data, such as simultaneous image classification and annotation. First, we propose SupDocNADE, a supervised extension of DocNADE, that increases the discriminative power of the learned hidden topic features and show how to employ it to learn a joint representation from image visual words, annotation words and class label information. We test our model on the LabelMe and UIUC-Sports data sets and show that it compares favorably to other topic models. Second, we propose a deep extension of our model and provide an efficient way of training the deep model. Experimental results show that our deep model outperforms its shallow version and reaches state-of-the-art performance on the Multimedia Information Retrieval (MIR) Flickr data set.

Developmental pathways to depressive symptoms in adolescence: A multi-wave prospective study of negative emotionality, stressors, and anxiety

PubMed Central

Barrocas, Andrea L.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

2014-01-01

This study examined two potential developmental pathways through which the temperament risk factor of negative emotionality (NE) leads to prospective increases in depressive symptoms through the mediating role of stressors and anxious symptoms in a sample of early to middle adolescents (N=350, 6th–10th graders). The primary hypothesized model was that baseline NE leads to increased stressors, which results in increases in anxious arousal, which culminates with elevated depressive symptoms. An alternate model hypothesized that baseline NE leads to increased anxious arousal, which results in increases in stressors, and this culminates in elevated depressive symptoms. Youth completed self-report measures of NE, stressors, anxious arousal, and depressive symptoms at four time-points. Path analysis supported the primary model and showed that the mediating influence of stressors and anxious arousal explained 78% of the association between NE and prospective elevations in depressive symptoms. The alternate model was not supported. Neither gender nor age were moderators. PMID:21249517

Conjugated dynamic modeling on vanadium redox flow battery with non-constant variance for renewable power plant applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddiquee, Abu Nayem Md. Asraf

A parametric modeling study has been carried out to assess the impact of change in operating parameters on the performance of Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB). The objective of this research is to develop a computer program to predict the dynamic behavior of VRFB combining fluid mechanics, reaction kinetics, and electric circuit. The computer program was developed using Maple 2015 and calculations were made at different operating parameters. Modeling results show that the discharging time increases from 2.2 hours to 6.7 hours when the concentration of V2+ in electrolytes increases from 1M to 3M. The operation time during the charging cycle decreases from 6.9 hours to 3.3 hours with the increase of applied current from 1.85A to 3.85A. The modeling results represent that the charging and discharging time were found to increase from 4.5 hours to 8.2 hours with the increase in tank to cell ratio from 5:1 to 10:1.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

PubMed

Migliavacca, M; Cremonese, E; Colombo, R; Busetto, L; Galvagno, M; Ganis, L; Meroni, M; Pari, E; Rossini, M; Siniscalco, C; Morra di Cella, U

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Palatable Meal Anticipation in Mice

PubMed Central

Hsu, Cynthia T.; Patton, Danica F.; Mistlberger, Ralph E.; Steele, Andrew D.

2010-01-01

The ability to sense time and anticipate events is a critical skill in nature. Most efforts to understand the neural and molecular mechanisms of anticipatory behavior in rodents rely on daily restricted food access, which induces a robust increase of locomotor activity in anticipation of daily meal time. Interestingly, rats also show increased activity in anticipation of a daily palatable meal even when they have an ample food supply, suggesting a role for brain reward systems in anticipatory behavior, and providing an alternate model by which to study the neurobiology of anticipation in species, such as mice, that are less well adapted to “stuff and starve” feeding schedules. To extend this model to mice, and exploit molecular genetic resources available for that species, we tested the ability of wild-type mice to anticipate a daily palatable meal. We observed that mice with free access to regular chow and limited access to highly palatable snacks of chocolate or “Fruit Crunchies” avidly consumed the snack but did not show anticipatory locomotor activity as measured by running wheels or video-based behavioral analysis. However, male mice receiving a snack of high fat chow did show increased food bin entry prior to access time and a modest increase in activity in the two hours preceding the scheduled meal. Interestingly, female mice did not show anticipation of a daily high fat meal but did show increased activity at scheduled mealtime when that meal was withdrawn. These results indicate that anticipation of a scheduled food reward in mice is behavior, diet, and gender specific. PMID:20941366

A parallel process growth mixture model of conduct problems and substance use with risky sexual behavior.

PubMed

Wu, Johnny; Witkiewitz, Katie; McMahon, Robert J; Dodge, Kenneth A

2010-10-01

Conduct problems, substance use, and risky sexual behavior have been shown to coexist among adolescents, which may lead to significant health problems. The current study was designed to examine relations among these problem behaviors in a community sample of children at high risk for conduct disorder. A latent growth model of childhood conduct problems showed a decreasing trend from grades K to 5. During adolescence, four concurrent conduct problem and substance use trajectory classes were identified (high conduct problems and high substance use, increasing conduct problems and increasing substance use, minimal conduct problems and increasing substance use, and minimal conduct problems and minimal substance use) using a parallel process growth mixture model. Across all substances (tobacco, binge drinking, and marijuana use), higher levels of childhood conduct problems during kindergarten predicted a greater probability of classification into more problematic adolescent trajectory classes relative to less problematic classes. For tobacco and binge drinking models, increases in childhood conduct problems over time also predicted a greater probability of classification into more problematic classes. For all models, individuals classified into more problematic classes showed higher proportions of early sexual intercourse, infrequent condom use, receiving money for sexual services, and ever contracting an STD. Specifically, tobacco use and binge drinking during early adolescence predicted higher levels of sexual risk taking into late adolescence. Results highlight the importance of studying the conjoint relations among conduct problems, substance use, and risky sexual behavior in a unified model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion controls transient anomalous transport in alluvial aquifer-aquitard complexes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Yong; Green, Christopher T.; Tick, Geoffrey R.

2015-01-01

This study evaluates the role of the Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion in transient anomalous transport, which is one of the major knowledge gaps in anomalous transport, by combining Monte Carlo simulations and stochastic model analysis. Two alluvial settings containing either short- or long-connected hydrofacies are generated and used as media for flow and transport modeling. Numerical experiments show that 1) the Peclet number affects both the duration of the power-law segment of tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs) and the transition rate from anomalous to Fickian transport by determining the solute residence time for a given low-permeability layer, 2) mechanical dispersion has a limited contribution to the anomalous characteristics of late-time transport as compared to molecular diffusion due to an almost negligible velocity in floodplain deposits, and 3) the initial source dimensions only enhance the power-law tail of the BTCs at short travel distances. A tempered stable stochastic (TSS) model is then applied to analyze the modeled transport. Applications show that the time-nonlocal parameters in the TSS model relate to the Peclet number, Pe. In particular, the truncation parameter in the TSS model increases nonlinearly with a decrease in Pe due to the decrease of the mean residence time, and the capacity coefficient increases with an increase in molecular diffusion which is probably due to the increase in the number of immobile particles. The above numerical experiments and stochastic analysis therefore reveal that the Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion controls transient anomalous transport in alluvial aquifer–aquitard complexes.

Clustering and heterogeneous dynamics in a kinetic Monte Carlo model of self-propelled hard disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levis, Demian; Berthier, Ludovic

2014-06-01

We introduce a kinetic Monte Carlo model for self-propelled hard disks to capture with minimal ingredients the interplay between thermal fluctuations, excluded volume, and self-propulsion in large assemblies of active particles. We analyze in detail the resulting (density, self-propulsion) nonequilibrium phase diagram over a broad range of parameters. We find that purely repulsive hard disks spontaneously aggregate into fractal clusters as self-propulsion is increased and rationalize the evolution of the average cluster size by developing a kinetic model of reversible aggregation. As density is increased, the nonequilibrium clusters percolate to form a ramified structure reminiscent of a physical gel. We show that the addition of a finite amount of noise is needed to trigger a nonequilibrium phase separation, showing that demixing in active Brownian particles results from a delicate balance between noise, interparticle interactions, and self-propulsion. We show that self-propulsion has a profound influence on the dynamics of the active fluid. We find that the diffusion constant has a nonmonotonic behavior as self-propulsion is increased at finite density and that activity produces strong deviations from Fickian diffusion that persist over large time scales and length scales, suggesting that systems of active particles generically behave as dynamically heterogeneous systems.

Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach.

PubMed

Hatam, Nahid; Tourani, Sogand; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Bastani, Peivand

2016-02-01

Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

Effects of Recruiting Midwives into a Family Physician Program on Women's Awareness and Preference for Mode of Delivery and Caesarean Section Rates in Rural Areas of Kurdistan.

PubMed

Hajizadeh, Shayesteh; Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Simbar, Masoumeh; Farzadfar, Farshad

2016-01-01

The accepted rate rate of caesarean section is 15%. It is expected that an increase in the density of midwives in the family physician program lead to a decrease in this indicator. This study aimed to compare the rates of caesarean section and women's awareness and preference for mode of delivery before and after the implementation of the family physician program in health centres with and without an increase in midwives density. In this cross-sectional study, using multistage cluster sampling method a total of 668 mothers with two-month-old children were selected from among all mothers with two-month-old children who were living in rural areas of Kurdistan province. Using the difference-in-differences model and Matchit statistical model, the factors associated with caesarean section rates and women's awareness and preference for mode of delivery were compared in centres with and without an increase in midwives density after the implementation of the family physician program. To compare the changes before and after the program, we used the data collected from the same number of women in 2005 as the baseline. After adjusting for baseline data collected in 2005, the resutls showed no significant change in caesarean section rates and women's awareness and preference for mode of delivery in the centres with and without an increase in midwives density after the implementation of the family physician program. The Matchit model showed a significant mean increase 14%(0.03-0.25) in women's awareness of the benefits of natural childbirth between 2005 and 2013 in health centres where the density of midwives increased compared with health centres where it did not. The difference-in-differences model showed that the odds ratio of women's preference for caesarean section decreased by 41% among participants who were aware of the benefits of natural childbirth, (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: (0.22-0.85); P>0.001). The results of this study showed that an increase in the density of midwives in the family physician program led to an increase in women's awareness of the benefits of natural childbirth. An increase in women's awareness of the benefits of natural childbirth was associated with a decreased preference for caesarean section, however this reduction did not have a significant impact on caesarean section rates; possibly, this finding might be attributed to the complexity of this problem that needs a mixed strategy involving various stockholders.

Formation of Glycidyl Fatty Acid Esters Both in Real Edible Oils during Laboratory-Scale Refining and in Chemical Model during High Temperature Exposure.

PubMed

Cheng, Weiwei; Liu, Guoqin; Liu, Xinqi

2016-07-27

In the present study, the formation mechanisms of glycidyl fatty acid esters (GEs) were investigated both in real edible oils (soybean oil, camellia oil, and palm oil) during laboratory-scale preparation and refining and in chemical model (1,2-dipalmitin (DPG) and 1-monopalmitin (MPG)) during high temperature exposure (160-260 °C under nitrogen). The formation process of GEs in the chemical model was monitored using attenuated total reflection-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. The results showed that the roasting and pressing process could produce certain amounts of GEs that were much lower than that produced in the deodorization process. GE contents in edible oils increased continuously and significantly with increasing deodorization time below 200 °C. However, when the temperature exceeded 200 °C, GE contents sharply increased in 1-2 h followed by a gradual decrease, which could verify a simultaneous formation and degradation of GEs at high temperature. In addition, it was also found that the presence of acylglycerol (DAGs and MAGs) could significantly increase the formation yield of GEs both in real edible oils and in chemical model. Compared with DAGs, moreover, MAGs displayed a higher formation capacity but substantially lower contribution to GE formation due to their low contents in edible oils. In situ ATR-FTIR spectroscopic evidence showed that cyclic acyloxonium ion intermediate was formed during GE formation derived from DPG and MPG in chemical model heated at 200 °C.

An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification.

PubMed

DeAngelis, Anthony M; Qu, Xin; Zelinka, Mark D; Hall, Alex

2015-12-10

Intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a key dimension of climate change, with substantial impacts on human and natural systems. A basic measure of hydrologic cycle intensification is the increase in global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming, which varies by a factor of three in current-generation climate models (about 1-3 per cent per kelvin). Part of the uncertainty may originate from atmosphere-radiation interactions. As the climate warms, increases in shortwave absorption from atmospheric moistening will suppress the precipitation increase. This occurs through a reduction of the latent heating increase required to maintain a balanced atmospheric energy budget. Using an ensemble of climate models, here we show that such models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to variations in atmospheric water vapour, leading to an underestimation in the shortwave absorption increase and an overestimation in the precipitation increase. This sensitivity also varies considerably among models due to differences in radiative transfer parameterizations, explaining a substantial portion of model spread in the precipitation response. Consequently, attaining accurate shortwave absorption responses through improvements to the radiative transfer schemes could reduce the spread in the predicted global precipitation increase per degree warming for the end of the twenty-first century by about 35 per cent, and reduce the estimated ensemble-mean increase in this quantity by almost 40 per cent.

Structure, Mechanics, and Instability of Fibrin Clot Infected with Staphylococcus epidermidis.

PubMed

Ma, Tianhui Maria; VanEpps, J Scott; Solomon, Michael J

2017-11-07

Health care-associated infection, over half of which can be attributed to indwelling medical devices, is a strong risk factor for thromboembolism. Although most experimental models of medical device infection draw upon isolated bacterial biofilms, in fact there is no infection without host protein contribution. Here we study, to our knowledge, a new model for medical device infection-that of an infected fibrin clot-and show that the common blood-borne pathogen Staphylococcus epidermidis influences this in vitro model of a blood clot mechanically and structurally on both microscopic and macroscopic scales. Bacteria present during clot formation produce a visibly disorganized microstructure that increases clot stiffness and triggers mechanical instability over time. Our results provide insight into the observed correlation between medical device infection and thromboembolism; the increase in model clot heterogeneity shows that S. epidermidis can rupture a fibrin clot. The resultant embolization of the infected clot can contribute to the systemic dissemination of the pathogen. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cruise noise measurements of a scale model advanced ducted propulsor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dittmar, James H.; Hughes, Christopher E.; Bock, Lawrence A.; Hall, David G.

1993-01-01

A scale model Advanced Ducted Propulsor (ADP) was tested in NASA Lewis Research Center's 8- by 6-Foot Wind Tunnel to obtain acoustic data at cruise conditions. The model, designed and manufactured by Pratt & Whitney Division of United Technologies, was tested with three inlet lengths. The model has 16 rotor blades and 22 stator vanes, which results in a cut-on condition with respect to rotor-stator interaction noise. Comparisons of the noise directivity of the ADP with that of a previously tested high-speed, unducted propeller showed that the ADP peak blade passing tone was about 30 dB below that of the propeller, and therefore, should not present a cabin or enroute noise problem. The maximum blade passing tone first increased with increasing helical tip Mach number, peaked, and then decreased at a higher Mach number. The ADP tests with the shortest inlet showed more noise in the inlet arc than did tests with either of the other two inlet lengths.

Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator-prey model with periodic environmental modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harikrishnan, K. P.

2018-02-01

We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

Biomechanical analysis on fracture risk associated with bone deformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Nur Amalina Nadiah Mustafa; Som, Mohd Hanafi Mat; Basaruddin, Khairul Salleh; Daud, Ruslizam

2017-09-01

Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a disease related to bone deformity and is also known as `brittle bone' disease. Currently, medical personnel predict the bone fracture solely based on their experience. In this study, the prediction for risk of fracture was carried out by using finite element analysis on the simulated OI bone of femur. The main objective of this research was to analyze the fracture risk of OI-affected bone with respect to various loadings. A total of 12 models of OI bone were developed by applying four load cases and the angle of deformation for each of the models was calculated. The models were differentiated into four groups, namely standard, light, mild and severe. The results show that only a small amount of load is required to increase the fracture risk of the bone when the model is tested with hopping conditions. The analysis also shows that the torsional load gives a small effect to the increase of the fracture risk of the bone.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

Snout allometry in seahorses: insights on optimisation of pivot feeding performance during ontogeny.

PubMed

Roos, Gert; Van Wassenbergh, Sam; Herrel, Anthony; Adriaens, Dominique; Aerts, Peter

2010-07-01

As juvenile life-history stages are subjected to strong selection, these stages often show levels of performance approaching those of adults, or show a disproportionately rapid increase of performance with age. Although testing performance capacity in aquatic suction feeders is often problematic, in pivot feeders such as seahorses models have been proposed to estimate whether snout length is optimal to minimise the time needed to reach the prey. Here, we investigate whether the same model can also explain the snout lengths in an ontogenetic series of seahorses, explore how pivot feeding kinematics change during ontogeny, and test whether juveniles show disproportionate levels of performance. Our analysis shows that the dimensions of the snout change during ontogeny from short and broad to long and narrow. Model calculations show that the snout lengths of newborn and juvenile seahorses are nearly optimal for minimising prey reach time. However, in juveniles the centre of head rotation in the earth-bound frame of reference is located near the posterior end of the head, whereas in adults it is shifted forward and is located approximately above the eye. Modelling shows that this forward shift in the centre of rotation has the advantage of decreasing the moment of inertia and the torque required to rotate the head, but has the disadvantage of slightly increasing the time needed to reach the prey. Thus, the snout lengths of juvenile seahorses appear to be close to optimal, suggesting that they reach levels of performance close to adult levels, which illustrates the pervasive nature of selection on performance in juveniles.

Psychosocial work environment and myocardial infarction: improving risk estimation by combining two complementary job stress models in the SHEEP Study

PubMed Central

Peter, R; Siegrist, J; Hallqvist, J; Reuterwall, C; Theorell, T

2002-01-01

Objectives: Associations between two alternative formulations of job stress derived from the effort-reward imbalance and the job strain model and first non-fatal acute myocardial infarction were studied. Whereas the job strain model concentrates on situational (extrinsic) characteristics the effort-reward imbalance model analyses distinct person (intrinsic) characteristics in addition to situational ones. In view of these conceptual differences the hypothesis was tested that combining information from the two models improves the risk estimation of acute myocardial infarction. Methods: 951 male and female myocardial infarction cases and 1147 referents aged 45–64 years of The Stockholm Heart Epidemiology (SHEEP) case-control study underwent a clinical examination. Information on job stress and health adverse behaviours was derived from standardised questionnaires. Results: Multivariate analysis showed moderately increased odds ratios for either model. Yet, with respect to the effort-reward imbalance model gender specific effects were found: in men the extrinsic component contributed to risk estimation, whereas this was the case with the intrinsic component in women. Controlling each job stress model for the other in order to test the independent effect of either approach did not show systematically increased odds ratios. An improved estimation of acute myocardial infarction risk resulted from combining information from the two models by defining groups characterised by simultaneous exposure to effort-reward imbalance and job strain (men: odds ratio 2.02 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.34 to 3.07); women odds ratio 2.19 (95% CI 1.11 to 4.28)). Conclusions: Findings show an improved risk estimation of acute myocardial infarction by combining information from the two job stress models under study. Moreover, gender specific effects of the two components of the effort-reward imbalance model were observed. PMID:11896138

[Properties of maize stalk biochar produced under different pyrolysis temperatures and its sorption capability to naphthalene].

PubMed

Huang, Hua; Wang, Ya-Xiong; Tang, Jing-Chun; Tang, Jing-Chun; Zhu, Wen-Ying

2014-05-01

Biochar was made from maize stalk under three different temperatures of 300, 500 and 700 degreeC. The elemental composition of biochar was measured by elemental analyzer. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) was used to measure the surface morphology. Sorption of naphthalene to biochar was researched by batch sorption experiments. Results showed that, with the increase of temperature, C content increased from 66. 79% to 76. 30% , H and O contents decreased from 4.92% and 19. 25% to 3. 18% and 9.53%, respectively; H/C, O/C, (O + N)/C, aromaticity and hydrophobicity increased, and polarity decreased. SEM results showed that maize stalk biochar was platy particles, and its roughness of surface increased with increasing temperature. The sorption of naphthalene on biochar followed the Lagergren pseudo-second order dynamic sorption model. Initial sorption rate and equilibrium sorption capacity increased as preparation temperatures increased at the same initial concentration of naphthalene. The isotherm sorption behavior can be described by the Freundlich model, which indicated that, as pyrolysis temperature increased, the sorption capacity of biochar increased, and nonlinearity increased first and then decreased. Biochar derived from maize stalk had distinct features when compared with other feedstocks, and its elemental composition, surface features and sorption behaviors were significantly influenced by pyrolysis temperature.

How are changes in exposure to job demands and job resources related to burnout and engagement? A longitudinal study among Chinese nurses and police officers.

PubMed

Hu, Qiao; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; Taris, Toon W

2017-12-01

This study used a person-centered approach to examine the across-time relationships between job demands and job resources on the one hand and employee well-being (burnout and work engagement) on the other. On the basis of the job demands-resources model and conservation of resources (COR) theory, increases in demands and decreases in resources across time were expected to result in unfavorable changes in well-being across time. The results of a 2-wave study among 172 nurses and 273 police officers showed several common patterns across both samples: (a) participants who experienced an increase of demands showed a significant increase in burnout, whereas participants who reported having low resources at both measurement times also showed a significant increase in burnout; (b) participants who experienced decreasing resources reported a significant increase in burnout and a significant decrease in engagement; (c) participants who were exposed to chronic low job resources in a highly demanding environment showed a significant increase in burnout; and (d) participants who were exposed to decreased job resources in a highly demanding environment showed a significant increase in burnout. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fluid flow shear stress over podocytes is increased in the solitary kidney

PubMed Central

Srivastava, Tarak; Celsi, Gianni E.; Sharma, Mukut; Dai, Hongying; McCarthy, Ellen T.; Ruiz, Melanie; Cudmore, Patricia A.; Alon, Uri S.; Sharma, Ram; Savin, Virginia A.

2014-01-01

Background Glomerular hyperfiltration is emerging as the key risk factor for progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Podocytes are exposed to fluid flow shear stress (FFSS) caused by the flow of ultrafiltrate within Bowman's space. The mechanism of hyperfiltration-induced podocyte injury is not clear. We postulated that glomerular hyperfiltration in solitary kidney increases FFSS over podocytes. Methods Infant Sprague–Dawley rats at 5 days of age and C57BL/6J 14-week-old adult mice underwent unilateral nephrectomy. Micropuncture and morphological studies were then performed on 20- and 60-day-old rats. FFSS over podocytes in uninephrectomized rats and mice was calculated using the recently published equation by Friedrich et al. which includes the variables—single nephron glomerular filtration rate (SNGFR), filtration fraction (f), glomerular tuft diameter (2RT) and width of Bowman's space (s). Results Glomerular hypertrophy was observed in uninephrectomized rats and mice. Uninephrectomized rats on Day 20 showed a 2.0-fold increase in SNGFR, 1.0-fold increase in 2RT and 2.1-fold increase in FFSS, and on Day 60 showed a 1.9-fold increase in SNGFR, 1.3-fold increase in 2RT and 1.5-fold increase in FFSS, at all values of modeled ‘s’. Similarly, uninephrectomized mice showed a 2- to 3-fold increase in FFSS at all values of modeled SNGFR. Conclusions FFSS over podocytes is increased in solitary kidneys in both infant rats and adult mice. This increase is a consequence of increased SNGFR. We speculate that increased FFSS caused by reduced nephron number contributes to podocyte injury and promotes the progression of CKD. PMID:24166460

Limitations in interpretation of Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) beyond the rigid (Sauerbrey) to viscoelastic (lossy) transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiener, Clinton; Weiss, Robert; White, Christopher; Vogt, Bryan

2014-03-01

Since Sauerbrey's 1959 discovery of the mass-frequency relationship in quartz, the QCM has been utilized to probe deposited mass layers. The mass to frequency (imaginary component of the impedance) relationship breaks down when the added mass is not rigidly coupled to the sensor surface and viscous dissipation of the quartz occurs. This dissipation is important in the deposition of soft materials such as polymers or biological molecules. By using a viscoelastic model for frequency and dissipation; the mass, viscosity, and shear modulus can be accurately determined. Here, we demonstrate an additional breakdown in the coupling of the imaginary component of the impedance to the mass by simultaneous QCM-D and spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) measurements by examination of the swelling behavior of thin physically crosslinked poly-n-isopropylacrylamide films. A film swollen beyond 3 times its dry thickness shows a frequency increase (mass loss) and dissipation increases (increasing lossy film character) on cooling, but SE results show increased swelling of the film. This behavior was found to be thickness invariant for dry thicknesses of 32 nm and greater. Modeling of this QCM-D data shows non-physical results. Scaling concepts associated with this high loss limit will be discussed.

Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

2017-07-01

Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

Modelling the effects of on-site greywater reuse and low flush toilets on municipal sewer systems.

PubMed

Penn, R; Schütze, M; Friedler, E

2013-01-15

On-site greywater reuse (GWR) and installation of water-efficient toilets (WET) reduce urban freshwater demand. Research on GWR and WET has generally overlooked the effects that GWR may have on municipal sewer systems. This paper discusses and quantifies these effects. The effects of GWR and WET, positive and negative, were studied by modelling a representative urban sewer system. GWR scenarios were modelled and analysed using the SIMBA simulation system. The results show that, as expected, the flow, velocity and proportional depth decrease as GWR increases. Nevertheless, the reduction is not evenly distributed throughout the day but mainly occurs during the morning and evening peaks. Examination of the effects of reduced toilet flush volumes revealed that in some of the GWR scenarios flows, velocities and proportional depths in the sewer were reduced, while in other GWR scenarios discharge volumes, velocities and proportional depths did not change. Further, it is indicated that as a result of GWR and installation of WET, sewer blockage rates are not expected to increase significantly. The results support the option to construct new sewer systems with smaller pipe diameters. The analysis shows that as the penetration of GWR systems increase, and with the installation of WET, concentrations of pollutants also increase. In GWR scenarios (when toilet flush volume is not reduced) the increase in pollutant concentrations is lower than the proportional reduction of sewage flow. Moreover, the results show that the spatial distribution of houses reusing GW does not significantly affect the parameters examined. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galactic Cosmic Radiation Leads to Cognitive Impairment and Increased Aβ Plaque Accumulation in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Cherry, Jonathan D.; Liu, Bin; Frost, Jeffrey L.; Lemere, Cynthia A.; Williams, Jacqueline P.; Olschowka, John A.; O’Banion, M. Kerry

2012-01-01

Galactic Cosmic Radiation consisting of high-energy, high-charged (HZE) particles poses a significant threat to future astronauts in deep space. Aside from cancer, concerns have been raised about late degenerative risks, including effects on the brain. In this study we examined the effects of 56Fe particle irradiation in an APP/PS1 mouse model of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We demonstrated 6 months after exposure to 10 and 100 cGy 56Fe radiation at 1 GeV/µ, that APP/PS1 mice show decreased cognitive abilities measured by contextual fear conditioning and novel object recognition tests. Furthermore, in male mice we saw acceleration of Aβ plaque pathology using Congo red and 6E10 staining, which was further confirmed by ELISA measures of Aβ isoforms. Increases were not due to higher levels of amyloid precursor protein (APP) or increased cleavage as measured by levels of the β C-terminal fragment of APP. Additionally, we saw no change in microglial activation levels judging by CD68 and Iba-1 immunoreactivities in and around Aβ plaques or insulin degrading enzyme, which has been shown to degrade Aβ. However, immunohistochemical analysis of ICAM-1 showed evidence of endothelial activation after 100 cGy irradiation in male mice, suggesting possible alterations in Aβ trafficking through the blood brain barrier as a possible cause of plaque increase. Overall, our results show for the first time that HZE particle radiation can increase Aβ plaque pathology in an APP/PS1 mouse model of AD. PMID:23300905

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

Recent changes in flood damage in the United States from observations and ACME model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Despite efforts to mitigate flood hazards in flood-prone areas, survey- and report-based flood databases show that flood damage has increased and emerged as one of the most costly disaster in the United States since the 1990s. Understanding the mechanism driving the changes in flood damage is therefore critical for reducing flood risk. In this study, we first conduct a comprehensive analysis of the changing characteristics of flood damage at local, state and country level. Results show a significant increasing trend in the number of flood hazards, causing economic losses of up to $7 billion per year. The ratio of flood events that caused tangible economical cost to the total flood events has exhibited a non-significant increasing trend before 2007 followed by a significant decrease, indicating a changing vulnerability to floods. Analysis also reveals distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the threshold intensity of flood hazards with tangible economical cost. To understand the mechanism behind the increasing flood damage, we develop a flood damage economic model coupled with the integrated hydrological modeling system of ACME that features a river routing model with an inundation parameterization and a water use and regulation model. The model is evaluated over the country against historical records. Several numerical experiments are then designed to explore the mechanisms behind the recent changes in flood damage from the perspective of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which constitute flood damage. The role of human activities such as reservoir operations and water use in modifying regional floods are also explored using the new tool, with the goal of improving understanding and modeling of vulnerability to flood hazards.

The impact of urban canopy meteorological forcing on summer photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszár, Peter; Karlický, Jan; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomáš; Pišoft, Petr

2018-03-01

The regional climate model RegCM4.4, including the surface model CLM4.5, was offline coupled to the chemistry transport model CAMx version 6.30 in order to investigate the impact of the urban canopy induced meteorological changes on the longterm summer photochemistry over central Europe for the 2001-2005 period. First, the urban canopy impact on the meteorological conditions was calculated performing a reference experiment without urban landsurface considered and an experiment with urban surfaces modeled with the urban parameterization within the CLM4.5 model. In accordance with expectations, strong increases of urban surface temperatures (up to 2-3 K), decreases of wind speed (up to -1 ms-1) and increases of vertical turbulent diffusion coefficient (up to 60-70 m2s-1) were found. For the impact on chemistry, these three components were considered. Additionally, we accounted for the effect of temperature enhanced biogenic emission increase. Several experiments were performed by adding these effects one-by-one to the total impact: i.e., first, only the urban temperature impact was considered driving the chemistry model; secondly, the wind impact was added and so on. We found that the impact on biogenic emission account for minor changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3), oxides of nitrogen NOx = NO + NO2 and nitric acid (HNO3). On the other hand, the dominating component acting is the increased vertical mixing, resulting in up to 5 ppbv increase of urban ozone concentrations while causing -2 to -3 ppbv decreases and around 1 ppbv increases of NOx and HNO3 surface concentrations, respectively. The temperature impact alone results in reduction of ozone, increase in NO, decrease in NO2 and increases of HNO3. The wind impact leads, over urban areas, to ozone decreases, increases of NOx and a slight increase in HNO3. The overall impact is similar to the impact of increased vertical mixing alone. The Process Analysis (PA) technique implemented in CAMx was adopted to investigate the causes of the modeled impacts in more details. It showed that the main process contributing to the temperature impact on ozone is a dry-deposition enhancement, while the dominating process controlling the wind impact on ozone over cities is the advection reduction. In case of the impact of enhanced turbulence, PA suggests that ozone increases are, again as assumed, the result of increased downward vertical mixing supported by reduced chemical loss. Comparing the model concentrations with measurements over urban areas, a slight improvement of the model performance was achieved during afternoon hours if urban canopy forcing on chemistry via meteorology was accounted for. The study demonstrates that disregarding the urban canopy induced meteorological effects in air-quality oriented modeling studies can lead to erroneous results in the calculated species concentrations. However, it also shows that the individual components are not equally important: urban canopy induced turbulence effects dominate while the wind-speed and temperature related ones are of considerably smaller magnitude.

Theoretical model of the effect of potassium on the uptake of radiocesium by rice.

PubMed

Fujimura, Shigeto; Ishikawa, Junko; Sakuma, Yuuki; Saito, Takashi; Sato, Mutsuto; Yoshioka, Kunio

2014-12-01

After the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company on 11 March 2011, potassium was applied to fields in the Tohoku and Kanto areas of Japan to reduce radiocesium uptake by crops. Despite the intense studies relating to the effect of potassium application on availability of radiocesium in the soil, physiological changes of radiocesium uptake by crops in response to K(+) concentration around roots remains elusive. In the present study, we developed physiological models describing the effect of K(+) on the uptake of radiocesium by rice. Two Cs(+):K(+) competition models were evaluated using a wide range of data obtained from pot and field experiments: the model assuming a uniformity in the gene expression of K(+) transporter (Model I) and the model assuming the increase in the gene expression of K(+) transporter in response to K(+) concentration below threshold (Model II). The root-mean-square deviation between the measured and estimated values was larger in Model I than in Model II. Residuals were positively correlated with K(+) in Model I but showed no deflection in Model II. These results indicate that Model II explains the effect of K(+) on the uptake of radiocesium better than Model I. Model II may provide the appropriate countermeasures in inhibiting the transfer of radiocesium from soil to crop. The effect of changes in the variables in Model II on the relationship between available K(+) in soil and (137)Cs uptake by plant was simulated. An increase in available (137)Cs(+) in soil enhanced the response of (137)Cs uptake to K(+). The effects of Michaelis-Menten constant for Cs(+) were the inverse of the (137)Cs(+) effect. The effect of Michaelis-Menten constant for K(+) showed the same tendency as that of (137)Cs(+), but the effect was much less than that of (137)Cs(+). An increase in the threshold of K(+) below which the gene expression of K(+) transporter increases enhanced the response of (137)Cs uptake to K(+) in the high-K(+) range. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wealth distribution of simple exchange models coupled with extremal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagatella-Flores, N.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.; Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.

2015-01-01

Punctuated Equilibrium (PE) states that after long periods of evolutionary quiescence, species evolution can take place in short time intervals, where sudden differentiation makes new species emerge and some species extinct. In this paper, we introduce and study the effect of punctuated equilibrium on two different asset exchange models: the yard sale model (YS, winner gets a random fraction of a poorer player's wealth) and the theft and fraud model (TF, winner gets a random fraction of the loser's wealth). The resulting wealth distribution is characterized using the Gini index. In order to do this, we consider PE as a perturbation with probability ρ of being applied. We compare the resulting values of the Gini index at different increasing values of ρ in both models. We found that in the case of the TF model, the Gini index reduces as the perturbation ρ increases, not showing dependence with the agents number. While for YS we observe a phase transition which happens around ρc = 0.79. For perturbations ρ <ρc the Gini index reaches the value of one as time increases (an extreme wealth condensation state), whereas for perturbations greater than or equal to ρc the Gini index becomes different to one, avoiding the system reaches this extreme state. We show that both simple exchange models coupled with PE dynamics give more realistic results. In particular for YS, we observe a power low decay of wealth distribution.

Cochlear spike synchronization and neuron coincidence detection model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, Rolf

2018-02-01

Coincidence detection of a spike pattern fed from the cochlea into a single neuron is investigated using a physical Finite-Difference model of the cochlea and a physiologically motivated neuron model. Previous studies have shown experimental evidence of increased spike synchronization in the nucleus cochlearis and the trapezoid body [Joris et al., J. Neurophysiol. 71(3), 1022-1036 and 1037-1051 (1994)] and models show tone partial phase synchronization at the transition from mechanical waves on the basilar membrane into spike patterns [Ch. F. Babbs, J. Biophys. 2011, 435135]. Still the traveling speed of waves on the basilar membrane cause a frequency-dependent time delay of simultaneously incoming sound wavefronts up to 10 ms. The present model shows nearly perfect synchronization of multiple spike inputs as neuron outputs with interspike intervals (ISI) at the periodicity of the incoming sound for frequencies from about 30 to 300 Hz for two different amounts of afferent nerve fiber neuron inputs. Coincidence detection serves here as a fusion of multiple inputs into one single event enhancing pitch periodicity detection for low frequencies, impulse detection, or increased sound or speech intelligibility due to dereverberation.

Establishment of a mouse model for pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis by intratracheal instillation of polyhexamethyleneguanidine phosphate

PubMed Central

Lee, Sang Jin; Park, Jong-Hwan; Lee, Jun-Young; Jeong, Yu-Jin; Song, Jeong Ah; Lee, Kyuhong; Kim, Dong-Jae

2016-01-01

Although several animal models have been developed to study human pulmonary fibrosis, lack of a perfect model has raised the need for various animal models of pulmonary fibrosis. In this study, we evaluated the pulmonary effect of polyhexamethyleneguanidine phosphate instillation into the lungs of mice to determine the potential of these mice as a murine model of pulmonary fibrosis. Intratracheal instillation of polyhexamethyleneguanidine phosphate induced severe lung inflammation manifested by the infiltration of mononuclear cells and neutrophils and increased production of IL-6, TNF-α, CCL2 and CXCL1. The lung inflammation gradually increased until 28 days after polyhexamethyleneguanidine phosphate exposure, and increases of collagen deposition and TGF-β production, which are indicators of pulmonary fibrosis, were seen. Our study showed that intratracheal instillation of polyhexamethyleneguanidine phosphate induces pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis in mice. PMID:27182113

Entrepreneurship education revisited: perceived entrepreneurial role models increase perceived behavioural control

PubMed Central

Fellnhofer, Katharina

2017-01-01

Relying on Bandura’s (1986) social learning theory, Ajzen’s (1988) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), and Dyer’s (1994) model of entrepreneurial careers, this study aims to highlight the potential of entrepreneurial role models to entrepreneurship education. The results suggest that entrepreneurial courses would greatly benefit from real-life experiences, either positive or negative. The results of regression analysis based on 426 individuals, primarily from Austria, Finland, and Greece, show that role models increase learners’ entrepreneurial perceived behaviour control (PBC) by increasing their self-efficacy. This study can inform the research and business communities and governments about the importance of integrating entrepreneurs into education to stimulate entrepreneurial PBC. This study is the first of its kind using its approach, and its results warrant more in-depth studies of storytelling by entrepreneurial role models in the context of multimedia entrepreneurship education. PMID:29104604

Gap Winds in a Fjord: Howe Sound, British Columbia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Peter L.

1993-01-01

Gap, outflow, or Squamish wind, is the cold low level seaward flow of air through fjords which dissect the coastal mountain barrier of northwestern North America. These flows, occurring mainly during winter, can be strong, threatening safety, economic activity and comfort. Howe Sound gap winds were studied using a combination of observations and several types of models. Observations of winds in Howe Sound showed that gap wind strength varied considerably along the channel, across the channel and vertically. Generally, winds increase down the channel, are strongest along the eastern side, and are below 1000 m depth. Observations were unable to answer all questions about gap winds due to data sparseness, particularly in the vertical direction. Therefore, several modelling approaches were used. The modelling began with a complete 3-dimensional quasi-Boussinesq model (CSU RAMS) and ended with the creation and testing of models which are conceptually simpler, and more easily interpreted and manipulated. A gap wind simulation made using RAMS was shown to be mostly successful by statistical evaluation compared to other mesoscale simulations, and by visual inspection of the fields. The RAMS output, which has very high temporal and spatial resolution, provided much additional information about the details of gap flow. In particular, RAMS results suggested a close analogy between gap wind and hydraulic channel flow, with hydraulic features such as supercritical flow and hydraulic jumps apparent. These findings imply gap wind flow could potentially be represented by much simpler models. The simplest possible models containing pressure gradient, advection and friction but not incorporating hydraulic effects, were created, tested, and found lacking. A hydraulic model, which in addition incorporates varying gap wind height and channel geometry, was created and shown to successfully simulate gap winds. Force balance analysis from RAMS and the hydraulic model showed that pressure gradient and advection are the most important forces, followed by friction which becomes an important force in fast supercritical flow. The sensitivity of gap wind speed to various parameters was found from sensitivity tests using the hydraulic model. Results indicated that gap wind speed increases with increasing boundary layer height and speed at the head of channel, and increasing synoptic pressure gradient. Gap wind speed decreases with increasing friction, and increasing boundary layer height at the seaward channel end. Increasing temperature differences between the cold gap wind air and the warmer air aloft was found to increase the variability of the flow--higher maximum but lower mean wind speeds.

Simulating an emergency department: the importance of modeling the interactions between physicians and delegates in a discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Lim, Morgan E; Worster, Andrew; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Éric

2013-05-22

Computer simulation studies of the emergency department (ED) are often patient driven and consider the physician as a human resource whose primary activity is interacting directly with the patient. In many EDs, physicians supervise delegates such as residents, physician assistants and nurse practitioners each with different skill sets and levels of independence. The purpose of this study is to present an alternative approach where physicians and their delegates in the ED are modeled as interacting pseudo-agents in a discrete event simulation (DES) and to compare it with the traditional approach ignoring such interactions. The new approach models a hierarchy of heterogeneous interacting pseudo-agents in a DES, where pseudo-agents are entities with embedded decision logic. The pseudo-agents represent a physician and delegate, where the physician plays a senior role to the delegate (i.e. treats high acuity patients and acts as a consult for the delegate). A simple model without the complexity of the ED is first created in order to validate the building blocks (programming) used to create the pseudo-agents and their interaction (i.e. consultation). Following validation, the new approach is implemented in an ED model using data from an Ontario hospital. Outputs from this model are compared with outputs from the ED model without the interacting pseudo-agents. They are compared based on physician and delegate utilization, patient waiting time for treatment, and average length of stay. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on key parameters in the model. In the hospital ED model, comparisons between the approach with interaction and without showed physician utilization increase from 23% to 41% and delegate utilization increase from 56% to 71%. Results show statistically significant mean time differences for low acuity patients between models. Interaction time between physician and delegate results in increased ED length of stay and longer waits for beds. This example shows the importance of accurately modeling physician relationships and the roles in which they treat patients. Neglecting these relationships could lead to inefficient resource allocation due to inaccurate estimates of physician and delegate time spent on patient related activities and length of stay.

Can a void mimic the Λ in ΛCDM?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sundell, Peter; Vilja, Iiro; Mörtsell, Edvard, E-mail: pgsund@utu.fi, E-mail: edvard@fysik.su.se, E-mail: iiro.vilja@utu.fi

2015-08-01

We investigate Lemaítre-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) models, whose early time evolution and bang time are homogeneous and the distance-redshift relation and local Hubble parameter are inherited from the ΛCDM model. We show that the obtained LTB models and the ΛCDM model predict different relative local expansion rates and that the Hubble functions of the models diverge increasingly with redshift. The LTB models show tension between low redshift baryon acoustic oscillation and supernova observations and including Lyman-α forest or cosmic microwave background observations only accentuates the better fit of the ΛCDM model compared to the LTB model. The result indicates that additional degreesmore » of freedom are needed to explain the observations, for example by renouncing spherical symmetry, homogeneous bang time, negligible effects of pressure, or the early time homogeneity assumption.« less

Coupling impervious surface rate derived from satellite remote sensing with distributed hydrological model for highly urbanized watershed flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, L.

2017-12-01

Abstract: The original urban surface structure changed a lot because of the rapid development of urbanization. Impermeable area has increased a lot. It causes great pressure for city flood control and drainage. Songmushan reservoir basin with high degree of urbanization is taken for an example. Pixel from Landsat is decomposed by Linear spectral mixture model and the proportion of urban area in it is considered as impervious rate. Based on impervious rate data before and after urbanization, an physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, is used to simulate the process of hydrology. The research shows that the performance of the flood forecasting of high urbanization area carried out with Liuxihe Model is perfect and can meet the requirement of the accuracy of city flood control and drainage. The increase of impervious area causes conflux speed more quickly and peak flow to be increased. It also makes the time of peak flow advance and the runoff coefficient increase. Key words: Liuxihe Model; Impervious rate; City flood control and drainage; Urbanization; Songmushan reservoir basin

3D printed alendronate-releasing poly(caprolactone) porous scaffolds enhance osteogenic differentiation and bone formation in rat tibial defects.

PubMed

Kim, Sung Eun; Yun, Young-Pil; Shim, Kyu-Sik; Kim, Hak-Jun; Park, Kyeongsoon; Song, Hae-Ryong

2016-09-29

The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vitro osteogenic effects and in vivo new bone formation of three-dimensional (3D) printed alendronate (Aln)-releasing poly(caprolactone) (PCL) (Aln/PCL) scaffolds in rat tibial defect models. 3D printed Aln/PCL scaffolds were fabricated via layer-by-layer deposition. The fabricated Aln/PCL scaffolds had high porosity and an interconnected pore structure and showed sustained Aln release. In vitro studies showed that MG-63 cells seeded on the Aln/PCL scaffolds displayed increased alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and calcium content in a dose-dependent manner when compared with cell cultures in PCL scaffolds. In addition, in vivo animal studies and histologic evaluation showed that Aln/PCL scaffolds implanted in a rat tibial defect model markedly increased new bone formation and mineralized bone tissues in a dose-dependent manner compared to PCL-only scaffolds. Our results show that 3D printed Aln/PCL scaffolds are promising templates for bone tissue engineering applications.

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds

Treesearch

Joel B. Sankey; Jason Kreitler; Todd J. Hawbaker; Jason L. McVay; Mary Ellen Miller; Erich R. Mueller; Nicole M. Vaillant; Scott E. Lowe; Temuulen T. Sankey

2017-01-01

The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show...

Dysregulated hepatic bile acids collaboratively promote liver carcinogenesis

PubMed Central

Xie, Guoxiang; Wang, Xiaoning; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Chen, Wenlian; Yan, Jingyu; Zhang, Yunjing; Lei, Sha; Ge, Kun; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Liu, Jiajian; Su, Mingming; Liu, Ping; Jia, Wei

2017-01-01

Dysregulated bile acids (BAs) are closely associated with liver diseases and attributed to altered gut microbiota. Here, we show that the intrahepatic retention of hydrophobic BAs including deoxycholate (DCA), taurocholate (TCA), taurochenodeoxycholate (TCDCA), and taurolithocholate (TLCA) were substantially increased in a streptozotocin and high fat diet (HFD) induced nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-hepatocellular carcinoma (NASH-HCC) mouse model. Additionally chronic HFD-fed mice spontaneously developed liver tumors with significantly increased hepatic BA levels. Enhancing intestinal excretion of hydrophobic BAs in the NASH-HCC model mice by a 2% cholestyramine feeding significantly prevented HCC development. The gut microbiota alterations were closely correlated with altered BA levels in liver and feces. HFD-induced inflammation inhibited key BA transporters, resulting in sustained increases in intrahepatic BA concentrations. Our study also showed a significantly increased cell proliferation in BA treated normal human hepatic cell lines and a down-regulated expression of tumor suppressor gene CEBPα in TCDCA treated HepG2 cell line, suggesting that several hydrophobic BAs may collaboratively promote liver carcinogenesis. PMID:27273788

Numerical simulations of inductive-heated float-zone growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, Y. T.; Choi, S. K.

1992-01-01

The present work provides an improved fluid flow and heat-transfer modeling of float-zone growth by introducing a RF heating model so that an ad hoc heating temperature profile is not necessary. Numerical simulations were carried out to study the high-temperature float-zone growth of titanium carbide single crystal. The numerical results showed that the thermocapillary convection occurring inside the molten zone tends to increase the convexity of the melt-crystal interface and decrease the maximum temperature of the molten zone, while the natural convection tends to reduce the stability of the molten zone by increasing its height. It was found that the increase of induced heating due to the increase of applied RF voltage is reduced by the decrease of zone diameter. Surface tension plays an important role in controlling the amount of induced heating. Finally, a comparison of the computed shape of the free surface with a digital image obtained during a growth run showed adequate agreement.

Polariton-Assisted Singlet Fission in Acene Aggregates.

PubMed

Martínez-Martínez, Luis A; Du, Matthew; F Ribeiro, Raphael; Kéna-Cohen, Stéphane; Yuen-Zhou, Joel

2018-04-19

Singlet fission is an important candidate to increase energy conversion efficiency in organic photovoltaics by providing a pathway to increase the quantum yield of excitons per photon absorbed in select materials. We investigate the dependence of exciton quantum yield for acenes in the strong light-matter interaction (polariton) regime, where the materials are embedded in optical microcavities. Starting from an open-quantum-systems approach, we build a kinetic model for time-evolution of species of interest in the presence of singlet quenchers and show that polaritons can decrease or increase exciton quantum yields compared to the cavity-free case. In particular, we find that hexacene, under the conditions of our model, can feature a higher yield than cavity-free pentacene when assisted by polaritonic effects. Similarly, we show that pentacene yield can be increased when assisted by polariton states. Finally, we address how various relaxation processes between bright and dark states in lossy microcavities affect polariton photochemistry. Our results also provide insights on how to choose microcavities to enhance similarly related chemical processes.

Facilitating interest and out-of-school engagement in science in secondary school girls: Increasing the effectiveness of the teaching for transformative experience in science model through parental involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heddy, Benjamin Charles

This study investigated the impact of adding a parental involvement intervention to the Teaching for Transformative Experience in Science (TTES) model in science courses (biology and chemistry) in an all-girl middle and high school (N = 89). Specifically, the goal was to increase out-of-school engagement, interest, parental involvement, and achievement. Analysis showed that TTES with the addition of a parent intervention (TTES+PI) facilitated more out-of-school engagement and parent involvement than a comparison. Furthermore, a high initial level of situational and individual interest was maintained in the TTES+PI condition; whereas both forms of interest decreased in the comparison. A content analysis of transformative experience journal entries suggested that when parents showed value for science concepts, students' experiential value increased. The results provide evidence that the addition of a parent intervention may increase the effectiveness of TTES and maintain girl's interest in science, which has theoretical and practical implications.

Modeled Carbon Cycle Responses to Altered Precipitation Amount and Interannual Variation in Desert Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, G.; Wilcox, K.; Rudgers, J.; Litvak, M. E.; Newsome, S. D.; Collins, S. L.; Pockman, W.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Altered amounts and increased interannual variation of precipitation are likely to occur on a regional to global scale in the late 21st Century, yet understanding the interactive effects of these changes on ecosystem processes is limited. Here, we modeled the responses of the carbon cycle in a desert grassland at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SEV) to changes in precipitation amount and interannual variation using the Terrestrial Ecosystem model. After model calibration, we generated 100-year hourly weather data by randomly repeated sampling of observed hourly weather data at SEV from 2000 to 2012. We then modified this 100-year time series to create six climate scenarios: (1) ambient (AMB); (2) increased air temperature by 4.3 °C in summer and 3.3 °C in other seasons for each year (IT); (3) 20% decreased precipitation amount for every event (DP); (4) combined IT and DP (DPT); (5) 100% increased precipitation interannual variance without changing the mean (IV); (6) combined IT and IV (IVT). Our results showed IV significantly increased the sensitivity of NPP to continuous extreme drought. In addition, the increased number of extreme drought years caused by IV exacerbated the negative influence of individual extreme drought events on soil organic carbon (SOC). The IV climate scenario showed the highest interannual variance of carbon fluxes and SOC, but increased temperature reduced this variance. DP and IV decreased NPP by 10.7% and 18.3% compared with AMB, respectively, and the negative impact of IV on NPP was more severe than that of DP. Our results indicate that the increased interannual variation in precipitation could have more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems that exceed the decrease in predicted average annual precipitation.

The effects of weather and climate change on dengue.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Fezzi, Carlo; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

2013-11-01

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors. Using a Generalized Additive Model, we estimated statistically significant effects of weather and access to piped water on dengue. The effects of weather were highly nonlinear. Minimum temperature (Tmin) had almost no effect on dengue incidence below 5 °C, but Tmin values above 18 °C showed a rapidly increasing effect. Maximum temperature above 20 °C also showed an increasing effect on dengue incidence with a peak around 32 °C, after which the effect declined. There is also an increasing effect of precipitation as it rose to about 550 mm, beyond which such effect declines. Rising access to piped water was related to increasing dengue incidence. We used our model estimations to project the potential impact of climate change on dengue incidence under three emission scenarios by 2030, 2050, and 2080. An increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence by 2080 was estimated under climate change while holding the other driving factors constant. Our results indicate that weather significantly influences dengue incidence in Mexico and that such relationships are highly nonlinear. These findings highlight the importance of using flexible model specifications when analysing weather-health interactions. Climate change may contribute to an increase in dengue incidence. Rising access to piped water may aggravate dengue incidence if it leads to increased domestic water storage. Climate change may therefore influence the success or failure of future efforts against dengue.

Decreased consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages improved selected biomarkers of chronic disease risk among US adults: 1999 to 2010.

PubMed

Hert, Kerrie A; Fisk, Paul S; Rhee, Yeong S; Brunt, Ardith R

2014-01-01

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increased greatly from the late 1970s to the early part of this decade. Although recent data show that consumption of SSB may now be declining, consumption levels still remain much higher than recommended. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we assessed trends in intakes of SSB and levels of chronic disease biomarkers from 1999 to 2010 and examined the associations of SSB intake and biomarkers of chronic disease risk. We hypothesized that SSB intake will decrease and biomarkers of chronic disease risk will improve, therefore indicating that high intake of SSB is associated with greater chronic disease risk. Univariate analysis showed that from 1999 to 2010, SSB consumption decreased (P for trend = .0026), high-density lipoprotein increased (P for trend < .0001), low-density lipoprotein decreased (P for trend = .0007), and C-reactive protein decreased (P for trend = .0096). Using multivariate analysis, we showed that higher intakes of SSB were associated with lower high-density lipoprotein (P for trend < .0001), in an unadjusted model and all models with increasing numbers of covariates, and higher C-reactive protein (P for trend < .05), in an unadjusted model and in models with age, race/ethnicity, sex, education level, and poverty income ratio adjustments. We conclude that SSB consumption is associated with biomarkers of chronic disease risk, independent of demographic and lifestyle factors. © 2014.

Resistance to radial expansion limits muscle strain and work

PubMed Central

Deslauriers, A. R.; Holt, N. C.; Eaton, C. E.

2018-01-01

The collagenous extracellular matrix (ECM) of skeletal muscle functions to transmit force, protect sensitive structures, and generate passive tension to resist stretch. The mechanical properties of the ECM change with age, atrophy, and neuromuscular pathologies, resulting in an increase in the relative amount of collagen and an increase in stiffness. Although numerous studies have focused on the effect of muscle fibrosis on passive muscle stiffness, few have examined how these structural changes may compromise contractile performance. Here we combine a mathematical model and experimental manipulations to examine how changes in the mechanical properties of the ECM constrain the ability of muscle fibers and fascicles to radially expand and how such a constraint may limit active muscle shortening. We model the mechanical interaction between a contracting muscle and the ECM using a constant volume, pressurized, fiber-wound cylinder. Our model shows that as the proportion of a muscle cross section made up of ECM increases, the muscle’s ability to expand radially is compromised, which in turn restricts muscle shortening. In our experiments, we use a physical constraint placed around the muscle to restrict radial expansion during a contraction. Our experimental results are consistent with model predictions and show that muscles restricted from radial expansion undergo less shortening and generate less mechanical work under identical loads and stimulation conditions. This work highlights the intimate mechanical interaction between contractile and connective tissue structures within skeletal muscle and shows how a deviation from a healthy, well-tuned relationship can compromise performance. PMID:28432448

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, L.; Hall, F.G.; Collatz, G.J.; Tucker, C.J.; Sellers, P.J.; Kumar, A.

2008-01-01

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Numerical modeling of heat transfer and pasteurizing value during thermal processing of intact egg.

PubMed

Abbasnezhad, Behzad; Hamdami, Nasser; Monteau, Jean-Yves; Vatankhah, Hamed

2016-01-01

Thermal Pasteurization of Eggs, as a widely used nutritive food, has been simulated. A three-dimensional numerical model, computational fluid dynamics codes of heat transfer equations using heat natural convection, and conduction mechanisms, based on finite element method, was developed to study the effect of air cell size and eggshell thickness. The model, confirmed by comparing experimental and numerical results, was able to predict the temperature profiles, the slowest heating zone, and the required heating time during pasteurization of intact eggs. The results showed that the air cell acted as a heat insulator. Increasing the air cell volume resulted in decreasing of the heat transfer rate, and the increasing the required time of pasteurization (up to 14%). The findings show that the effect on thermal pasteurization of the eggshell thickness was not considerable in comparison to the air cell volume.

The dynamic relationship between health expenditure and economic growth: is the health-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?

PubMed

Atilgan, Emre; Kilic, Dilek; Ertugrul, Hasan Murat

2017-06-01

The well-known health-led growth hypothesis claims a positive correlation between health expenditure and economic growth. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the health-led growth hypothesis for the Turkish economy. The bound test approach, autoregressive-distributed lag approach (ARDL) and Kalman filter modeling are employed for the 1975-2013 period to examine the co-integration relationship between economic growth and health expenditure. The ARDL model is employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between health expenditure and economic growth. The results show that a 1 % increase in per-capita health expenditure will lead to a 0.434 % increase in per-capita gross domestic product. These findings are also supported by the Kalman filter model's results. Our findings show that the health-led growth hypothesis is supported for Turkey.

Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

2016-06-01

Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. Additionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climatological vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.

microRNA as a Potential Vector for the Propagation of Robustness in Protein Expression and Oscillatory Dynamics within a ceRNA Network

PubMed Central

Gérard, Claude; Novák, Béla

2013-01-01

microRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs that are important post-transcriptional regulators of gene expression. miRNAs can induce thresholds in protein synthesis. Such thresholds in protein output can be also achieved by oligomerization of transcription factors (TF) for the control of gene expression. First, we propose a minimal model for protein expression regulated by miRNA and by oligomerization of TF. We show that miRNA and oligomerization of TF generate a buffer, which increases the robustness of protein output towards molecular noise as well as towards random variation of kinetics parameters. Next, we extend the model by considering that the same miRNA can bind to multiple messenger RNAs, which accounts for the dynamics of a minimal competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs) network. The model shows that, through common miRNA regulation, TF can control the expression of all proteins formed by the ceRNA network, even if it drives the expression of only one gene in the network. The model further suggests that the threshold in protein synthesis mediated by the oligomerization of TF can be propagated to the other genes, which can increase the robustness of the expression of all genes in such ceRNA network. Furthermore, we show that a miRNA could increase the time delay of a “Goodwin-like” oscillator model, which may favor the occurrence of oscillations of large amplitude. This result predicts important roles of miRNAs in the control of the molecular mechanisms leading to the emergence of biological rhythms. Moreover, a model for the latter oscillator embedded in a ceRNA network indicates that the oscillatory behavior can be propagated, via the shared miRNA, to all proteins formed by such ceRNA network. Thus, by means of computational models, we show that miRNAs could act as vectors allowing the propagation of robustness in protein synthesis as well as oscillatory behaviors within ceRNA networks. PMID:24376695

Reliability of Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Dâmaso, Antônio; Rosa, Nelson; Maciel, Paulo

2014-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of hundreds or thousands of sensor nodes with limited processing, storage, and battery capabilities. There are several strategies to reduce the power consumption of WSN nodes (by increasing the network lifetime) and increase the reliability of the network (by improving the WSN Quality of Service). However, there is an inherent conflict between power consumption and reliability: an increase in reliability usually leads to an increase in power consumption. For example, routing algorithms can send the same packet though different paths (multipath strategy), which it is important for reliability, but they significantly increase the WSN power consumption. In this context, this paper proposes a model for evaluating the reliability of WSNs considering the battery level as a key factor. Moreover, this model is based on routing algorithms used by WSNs. In order to evaluate the proposed models, three scenarios were considered to show the impact of the power consumption on the reliability of WSNs. PMID:25157553

Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossaini, R.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Dhomse, S.; Ordóñez, C.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Abraham, N. L.; Archibald, A.; Braesicke, P.; Telford, P.; Warwick, N.; Yang, X.; Pyle, J.

2012-10-01

Simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) show a future increase in the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of biogenic very short-lived substances (VSLS). For 2000, the modelled SGI of bromine from VSLS is ∼1.7 parts per trillion (pptv) and largest over the tropical West Pacific. For 2100, this increases to ∼2.0 and ∼2.7 pptv when the model is forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The increase is largely due to stronger tropical deep convection transporting more CHBr3 to the lower stratosphere. For CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl and CHBrCl2, changes to primary oxidant OH determines their SGI contribution. Under RCP 4.5 (moderate warming), OH increases in a warmer, more humid troposphere. Under RCP 8.5 (extreme warming) OH decreases significantly due to a large methane increase, allowing greater SGI of bromine from these VSLS. Potentially enhanced VSLS emissions in the future would further increase these estimates.

Transport properties of active Brownian particles in a modified energy-depot model driven by correlated noises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Lin; Fang, Yuwen; Li, Kongzhai; Zeng, Chunhua; Yang, Fengzao

2018-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the role of correlated multiplicative (κ1) and additive (κ2) noises in a modified energy conversion depot model, at which it is added a linear term in the conversion of internal energy of active Brownian particles (ABPs). The linear term (a1 ≠ 0 . 0) in energy conversion model breaks the symmetry of the potential to generate motion of the ABPs with a net transport velocity. Adopt a nonlinear Langevin approach, the transport properties of the ABPs have been discussed, and our results show that: (i) the transport velocity <υ1 > of the ABPs are always positive whether the correlation intensity λ = 0 . 0 or not; (ii) for a small value of the multiplicative noise intensity κ1, the variation of <υ1 > with λ shows a minimum, there exists an optimal value of the correlation intensity λ at which the <υ1 > of the ABPs is minimized. But for a large value of κ1, the <υ1 > monotonically decreases; (iii) the transport velocity <υ1 > increases with the increase of the κ1 or κ2, i.e., the multiplicative or additive noise can facilitate the transport of the ABPs; and (iv) the effective diffusion increases with the increase of a1, namely, the linear term in modified energy conversion model of the ABPs can enhance the diffusion of the ABPs.

Movement ecology of migration in turkey vultures

PubMed Central

Mandel, J. T.; Bildstein, K. L.; Bohrer, G.; Winkler, D. W.

2008-01-01

We develop individual-based movement ecology models (MEM) to explore turkey vulture (Cathartes aura) migration decisions at both hourly and daily scales. Vulture movements in 10 migration events were recorded with satellite-reporting GPS sensors, and flight behavior was observed visually, aided by on-the-ground VHF radio-tracking. We used the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset to obtain values for wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and cloud height and used a digital elevation model for a measure of terrain ruggedness. A turkey vulture fitted with a heart-rate logger during 124 h of flight during 38 contiguous days showed only a small increase in mean heart rate as distance traveled per day increased, which suggests that, unlike flapping, soaring flight does not lead to greatly increased metabolic costs. Data from 10 migrations for 724 hourly segments and 152 daily segments showed that vultures depended heavily upon high levels of TKE in the atmospheric boundary layer to increase flight distances and maintain preferred bearings at both hourly and daily scales. We suggest how the MEM can be extended to other spatial and temporal scales of avian migration. Our success in relating model-derived atmospheric variables to migration indicates the potential of using regional reanalysis data, as here, and potentially other regional, higher-resolution, atmospheric models in predicting changing movement patterns of soaring birds under various scenarios of climate and land use change. PMID:19060195

Century-long increasing trend and variability of dissolved organic carbon export from the Mississippi River basin driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Huang, Wei-Jen; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Pan, Shufen; He, Ruoying

2016-09-01

There has been considerable debate as to how natural forcing and anthropogenic activities alter the timing and magnitude of the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the coastal ocean, which has ramifications for the ocean carbon budget, land-ocean interactions, and coastal life. Here we present an analysis of DOC export from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901-2010 as influenced by changes in climate, land use and management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition, through the integration of observational data with a coupled hydrologic/biogeochemical land model. Model simulations show that DOC export in the 2000s increased more than 40% since the 1900s. For the recent three decades (1981-2010), however, our simulated DOC export did not show a significant increasing trend, which is consistent with observations by U.S. Geological Survey. Our factorial analyses suggest that land use and land cover change, including land management practices (LMPs: i.e., fertilization, irrigation, tillage, etc.), were the dominant contributors to the century-scale trend of rising total riverine DOC export, followed by changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate. Decadal and interannual variations of DOC export were largely attributed to year-to-year climatic variability and extreme flooding events, which have been exacerbated by human activity. LMPs show incremental contributions to DOC increase since the 1960s, indicating the importance of sustainable agricultural practices in coping with future environmental changes such as extreme flooding events. Compared to the observational-based estimate, the modeled DOC export was 20% higher, while DOC concentrations were slightly lower. Further refinements in model structure and input data sets should enable reductions in uncertainties in our prediction of century-long trends in DOC.

Derivation of a formula to predict patient volume based on temperature at college football games.

PubMed

Kman, Nicholas E; Russell, Gregory B; Bozeman, William P; Ehrman, Kevin; Winslow, James

2007-01-01

We sought to explore the relationship between temperature and spectator illness at Division I college football games by deriving a formula to predict the number of patrons seeking medical care based on the ambient temperature and attendance of the game. A retrospective review was conducted of medical records from 47 Division I college football games at two outdoor stadiums from 2001 through 2005. Any person presenting for medical care was counted as a patient seen. Weather data were collected from the National Weather Service. A binomial model was fit to the spectator illness records by using the patients seen per attendance as the outcome measure, with temperature as the predictor. Using a binomial model, a formula was derived to estimate the number of patients needing medical attention based on the temperature and the number of spectators in attendance. Predicted # of Patients = exp (-7.4383 - 0.24439* Temperature C + 0.0156032 * Temperature C(2) - 0.000229196 * Temperature(3)) * number of spectators; all factors were highly significant (p < 0.0001). The model suggests that as the temperature rises, the number of patients seeking medical attention will also increase. The formula shows that an increase in temperature from 20 to 21 degrees C will show an increase in patient encounters from 3.64 to 4.05 visits per 10,000 in attendance (an 11% increase). These results show that temperature is an important variable to consider when determining the medical resources needed in caring for spectators at outdoor football games. Our model may help providers predict the number of spectators presenting for medical care based on the forecasted temperature and predicted attendance.

The effect of educational intervention based on an Ecological-social model on consuming fruit and vegetables in women in Ilam.

PubMed

Shafiei, Leili; Taymoori, Parvaneh; Maleki, Afshin; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

2017-12-01

The effect of instructional models on the changing behavior of consuming fruit and vegetables in the prevention of diseases caused by consumption of foods including rice, contaminated with toxic metals, has not been investigated in Iran yet. To compare an Ecological-social model (ECO) group and Control group in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This research involved implementation of a six-month randomized controlled educational interventionist program into a group of Ecological-social framework along with a control group, totally summing up to 160 women between 18 and 50 years of age in Ilam, Iran in 2014. The questionnaire included knowledge, social support construct (immediate family, relatives, friends, colleagues and neighbors.) and fruit and vegetable intake in both groups before and after the intervention was examined. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 16 using the signed ranks test, and repeated measures analysis of variance analysis, and confidence interval of 95% were employed. The results of the signed ranks test showed a significant increase in social support in the intervention group (p<0.001). This test showed a significant increase in fruit and vegetable consumption and a significant increase in the number of women using healthy rice (p<0.001), and a significant reduction in the number of women consuming unhealthy rice in the intervention group (p<0.001), that determines dietary intake improvement after the intervention compared with before the intervention (p<0.01). However, this improvement was not observed in the control group. The results showed that ECO plays an effective role in improving fruit and vegetable consumption in women. Therefore, this model was implemented as a health protocol through health-care centers to conduct the prevention of complications resulting from the use of food contaminated with toxic metals.

[Changes of telemetry electrical activity in the infralimbic cortex of morphine-dependent rats with extinguished drug-seeking behavior].

PubMed

Li, Jing; Pan, Qunwan; Zhu, Zaiman; Li, Min; Bai, Yu; Yu, Ran

2015-05-01

To investigate the changes of telemetry electrical activity in the infralimbic cortex (IL) of morphine-dependent rats with extinguished drug-seeking behavior. SD rats were randomly divided into model group and control group and received operations of brain stereotaxic electrode embedding in the IL. The rats in the model group were induced to acquire morphine dependence and then received subsequent extinction training, and the changes of electrical activity in the IL were recorded with a physical wireless telemetry system. In rats with morphine dependence, the time staying in the white box was significantly longer on days 1 and 2 after withdrawal than that before morphine injection and that of the control rats, but was obviously reduced on days 1 and 2 after extinction training to the control level. Compared with the control group, the morphine-dependent rats on day 2 following withdrawal showed significantly increased β wave and decreased δ wave when they stayed in the white box but significantly increased δ wave and decreased α wave and β wave when they shuttled from the black to the white box. On day 2 of extinction, the model rats, when staying in the white box, showed significantly decreased θ wave compared with that of the control rats group but decreased β wave and θ wave and increased δ wave compared with those in the withdrawal period. When they shuttled from black to white box, the model rats showed decreased δ wave and increased α wave and β wave compared with those in the withdrawal period. Morphine-dependent rats have abnormal changes of electrical activity in the IL in drug-seeking extinction to affect their drug-seeking motive and inhibit the expression and maintenance of drug-seeking behaviors.

An Intervention Model of Constructive Conflict Resolution and Cooperative Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Quanwu

1994-01-01

Tests an intervention model of constructive conflict resolution (CCR) and cooperative learning in three urban high schools. Findings show that improvements in CCR increased social support and decreased victimization for the students. These changes improved student's attitudes, self-esteem, interpersonal relations, and academic achievement. (GLR)

The Impacts of Gastroileostomy Rat Model on Glucagon-like Peptide-1: a Promising Model to Control Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Keleidari, Behrouz; Mohammadi Mofrad, Rastin; Shahabi Shahmiri, Shahab; Sanei, Mohammad Hossein; Kolahdouzan, Mohsen; Sheikhbahaei, Erfan

2018-05-21

One of the new current treatment options for Diabetes Mellitus is about increasing glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) activity. GLP-1 with its incretin effect showed major role in glucose homeostasis. Gastroileostomy can increase GLP-1 secretion by rapid delivery of undigested food to the terminal ileum. We studied the early effects of a gastroileostomy on serum levels of GLP-1, glucose, and insulin in rats. Gastroileostomies with side-to-side anastomosis were performed on 15 male New Zealand rats. Blood samples were obtained before and 1 week after the gastroileostomy. Our results showed that the rats lost a lot of weight from start (330 ± 15 g) to the end (240 ± 25 g) of the experiment (p = 0.048). The data analysis showed that the gastroileostomy surgery elevates the level of GLP-1in plasma significantly (89.1852 vs. 177.440 respectively; p < 0.001) and caused a significant decrease in plasma glucose as well (92.00 and 66.29 mg/dL respectively; p < 0.001). However, the insulin state elevated after the surgery significantly (8.03 vs. 9.89; p < 0.001). In this study, we showed the effectiveness of gastroileostomy treatment to decrease body weight and plasma glucose with increased GLP-1 in rats. This small rat model suggests the potential of this surgery to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Effects of Partial Beef Fat Replacement with Gelled Emulsion on Functional and Quality Properties of Model System Meat Emulsions

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of partial beef fat replacement (0, 30, 50, 100%) with gelled emulsion (GE) prepared with olive oil on functional and quality properties of model system meat emulsion (MSME). GE consisted of inulin and gelatin as gelling agent and characteristics of gelled and model system meat emulsions were investigated. GE showed good initial stability against centrifugation forces and thermal stability at different temperatures. GE addition decreased the pH with respect to increase in GE concentration. Addition of GE increased lightness and yellowness but reduced redness compared to control samples. The results of the study showed that partial replacement of beef fat with GE could be used for improving cooking yield without negative effects on water holding capacity and emulsion stability compared to C samples when replacement level is up to 50%. The presence of GE significantly affected textural behaviors of samples (p<0.05). In conclusion, our study showed that GE have promising impacts on developing healthier meat product formulations besides improving technological characteristics. PMID:28115885

Effects of Partial Beef Fat Replacement with Gelled Emulsion on Functional and Quality Properties of Model System Meat Emulsions.

PubMed

Serdaroğlu, Meltem; Nacak, Berker; Karabıyıkoğlu, Merve; Keser, Gökçen

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of partial beef fat replacement (0, 30, 50, 100%) with gelled emulsion (GE) prepared with olive oil on functional and quality properties of model system meat emulsion (MSME). GE consisted of inulin and gelatin as gelling agent and characteristics of gelled and model system meat emulsions were investigated. GE showed good initial stability against centrifugation forces and thermal stability at different temperatures. GE addition decreased the pH with respect to increase in GE concentration. Addition of GE increased lightness and yellowness but reduced redness compared to control samples. The results of the study showed that partial replacement of beef fat with GE could be used for improving cooking yield without negative effects on water holding capacity and emulsion stability compared to C samples when replacement level is up to 50%. The presence of GE significantly affected textural behaviors of samples ( p <0.05). In conclusion, our study showed that GE have promising impacts on developing healthier meat product formulations besides improving technological characteristics.

Video self-modeling in children with autism: a pilot study validating prerequisite skills and extending the utilization of VSM across skill sets.

PubMed

Williamson, Robert L; Casey, Laura B; Robertson, Janna Siegel; Buggey, Tom

2013-01-01

Given the recent interest in the use of video self-modeling (VSM) to provide instruction within iPod apps and other pieces of handheld mobile assistive technologies, investigating appropriate prerequisite skills for effective use of this intervention is particularly timely and relevant. To provide additional information regarding the efficacy of VSM for students with autism and to provide insights into any possible prerequisite skills students may require for such efficacy, the authors investigated the use of VSM in increasing the instances of effective initiations of interpersonal greetings for three students with autism that exhibited different pre-intervention abilities. Results showed that only one of the three participants showed an increase in self-initiated greetings following the viewing of videos edited to show each participant self-modeling a greeting when entering his or her classroom. Due to the differences in initial skill sets between the three children, this finding supports anecdotally observed student prerequisite abilities mentioned in previous studies that may be required to effectively utilize video based teaching methods.

Many-body localization-delocalization transition in the quantum Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Sudip; Nag, Sabyasachi; Garg, Arti

2018-04-01

We analyze the many-body localization- (MBL) to-delocalization transition in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) model of Ising spin glass in the presence of a transverse field Γ . Based on energy-resolved analysis, which is of relevance for a closed quantum system, we show that the quantum SK model has many-body mobility edges separating the MBL phase, which is nonergodic and nonthermal, from the delocalized phase, which is ergodic and thermal. The range of the delocalized regime increases with an increase in the strength of Γ , and eventually for Γ larger than ΓCP the entire many-body spectrum is delocalized. We show that the Renyi entropy is almost independent of the system size in the MBL phase while the delocalized phase shows extensive Renyi entropy. We further obtain the spin-glass transition curve in the energy density ɛ -Γ plane from the collapse of the eigenstate spin susceptibility. We demonstrate that in most of the parameter regime, the spin-glass transition occurs close to the MBL transition, indicating that the spin-glass phase is nonergodic and nonthermal while the paramagnetic phase is delocalized and thermal.

L-arginine enhances immunity to parasitoids in Drosophila melanogaster and increases NO production in lamellocytes.

PubMed

Kraaijeveld, Alex R; Elrayes, Naji P; Schuppe, Hansjürgen; Newland, Philip L

2011-08-01

Drosophila melanogaster was used as a model system to explore the link between nutrition and immunity, and to investigate the role of nitric oxide (NO) in enhancing immunity following dietary enhancement with L-arginine. First, we show that adding L-arginine to the food medium increases the ability of D. melanogaster larvae to encapsulate the eggs of the parasitoid Asobara tabida. Secondly, we show that the increase in immunity is specific to L-arginine, and not to an enhanced calorific content, and that immunity decreases when larvae are fed food with added L-NAME, an inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase. Finally, we show that parasitised larvae fed L-arginine have increased haemocyte numbers, and that the lamellocytes (haemocytes which play a key role in encapsulation) show evidence of an increased production of NO. These results suggest that NO plays a key role in immunity and that the effect of NO is mostly targeted via the lamellocytes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental and modeling studies showing the effect of lipid type and level on flavor release from milk-based liquid emulsions.

PubMed

Roberts, Deborah D; Pollien, Philippe; Watzke, Brigitte

2003-01-01

The purpose of this work was to study two key parameters of the lipid phase that influence flavor release-lipid level and lipid type-and to relate the results to a mass balance partition coefficient-based mathematical model. Release of 10 volatile compounds from milk-based emulsions at 10, 25, and 50 degrees C was monitored by 1-min headspace sampling with a solid-phase microextraction fiber, followed by GC-MS analysis. As compared to the observations for milk fat, changing to a lipophilic lipid (medium-chain triglycerides, MCT) and adding a monoglyceride-based surfactant did not influence the volatiles release. However, increasing the solid fat content was found to increase the release. At 25 degrees C, and even more so at 10 degrees C, concurrent with an increase in their solid fat content, hydrogenated palm fat emulsions showed increased flavor release over that observed for emulsions made with coconut oil, coconut oil with surfactant, milk fat, and MCT. However, at 50 degrees C, when hydrogenated palm fat emulsions had zero solid fat content, there was no difference in flavor release from that observed for milk fat emulsions. Varying milk fat at nine levels between 0 and 4.5% showed a systematic dependence of the release on the lipid level, dependent on compound lipophilicity. Close correlations were found between the experimental and model predictions with lipid level and percent liquid lipid as variables.

Application of scl - pbl method to increase quality learning of industrial statistics course in department of industrial engineering pancasila university

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmawan, M.; Hidayah, N. Y.

2017-12-01

Currently, there has been a change of new paradigm in the learning model in college, ie from Teacher Centered Learning (TCL) model to Student Centered Learing (SCL). It is generally assumed that the SCL model is better than the TCL model. The Courses of 2nd Industrial Statistics in the Department Industrial Engineering Pancasila University is the subject that belongs to the Basic Engineering group. So far, the applied learning model refers more to the TCL model, and field facts show that the learning outcomes are less satisfactory. Of the three consecutive semesters, ie even semester 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2015/2016 obtained grade average is equal to 56.0; 61.1, and 60.5. In the even semester of 2016/2017, Classroom Action Research (CAR) is conducted for this course through the implementation of SCL model with Problem Based Learning (PBL) methods. The hypothesis proposed is that the SCL-PBL model will be able to improve the final grade of the course. The results shows that the average grade of the course can be increased to 73.27. This value was then tested using the ANOVA and the test results concluded that the average grade was significantly different from the average grade value in the previous three semesters.

Computational Assessment of Blood Flow Heterogeneity in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients' Cardiac Ventricles

PubMed Central

Kharche, Sanjay R.; So, Aaron; Salerno, Fabio; Lee, Ting-Yim; Ellis, Chris; Goldman, Daniel; McIntyre, Christopher W.

2018-01-01

Dialysis prolongs life but augments cardiovascular mortality. Imaging data suggests that dialysis increases myocardial blood flow (BF) heterogeneity, but its causes remain poorly understood. A biophysical model of human coronary vasculature was used to explain the imaging observations, and highlight causes of coronary BF heterogeneity. Post-dialysis CT images from patients under control, pharmacological stress (adenosine), therapy (cooled dialysate), and adenosine and cooled dialysate conditions were obtained. The data presented disparate phenotypes. To dissect vascular mechanisms, a 3D human vasculature model based on known experimental coronary morphometry and a space filling algorithm was implemented. Steady state simulations were performed to investigate the effects of altered aortic pressure and blood vessel diameters on myocardial BF heterogeneity. Imaging showed that stress and therapy potentially increased mean and total BF, while reducing heterogeneity. BF histograms of one patient showed multi-modality. Using the model, it was found that total coronary BF increased as coronary perfusion pressure was increased. BF heterogeneity was differentially affected by large or small vessel blocking. BF heterogeneity was found to be inversely related to small blood vessel diameters. Simulation of large artery stenosis indicates that BF became heterogeneous (increase relative dispersion) and gave multi-modal histograms. The total transmural BF as well as transmural BF heterogeneity reduced due to large artery stenosis, generating large patches of very low BF regions downstream. Blocking of arteries at various orders showed that blocking larger arteries results in multi-modal BF histograms and large patches of low BF, whereas smaller artery blocking results in augmented relative dispersion and fractal dimension. Transmural heterogeneity was also affected. Finally, the effects of augmented aortic pressure in the presence of blood vessel blocking shows differential effects on BF heterogeneity as well as transmural BF. Improved aortic blood pressure may improve total BF. Stress and therapy may be effective if they dilate small vessels. A potential cause for the observed complex BF distributions (multi-modal BF histograms) may indicate existing large vessel stenosis. The intuitive BF heterogeneity methods used can be readily used in clinical studies. Further development of the model and methods will permit personalized assessment of patient BF status. PMID:29867555

Global Futures: a multithreaded execution model for Global Arrays-based applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Vishnu, Abhinav

2012-05-31

We present Global Futures (GF), an execution model extension to Global Arrays, which is based on a PGAS-compatible Active Message-based paradigm. We describe the design and implementation of Global Futures and illustrate its use in a computational chemistry application benchmark (Hartree-Fock matrix construction using the Self-Consistent Field method). Our results show how we used GF to increase the scalability of the Hartree-Fock matrix build to up to 6,144 cores of an Infiniband cluster. We also show how GF's multithreaded execution has comparable performance to the traditional process-based SPMD model.

Lattice Boltzmann simulation of immiscible displacement in the cavity with different channel configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Qin; Zang, Chenqiang; Yang, Mo; Xu, Hongtao

In this work, the immiscible displacement in a cavity with different channel configurations is studied using an improved pseudo-potential lattice Boltzmann equation (LBE) model. This model overcomes the drawback of the dependence of the fluid properties on the grid size, which exists in the original pseudo-potential LBE model. The approach is first validated by the Laplace law. Then, it is employed to study the immiscible displacement process. The influences of different factors, such as the surface wettability, the distance between the gas cavity and liquid cavity and the surface roughness of the channel are investigated. Numerical results show that the displacement efficiency increases and the displacement time decreases with the increase of the surface contact angle. On the other hand, the displacement efficiency increases with increasing distance between the gas cavity and the liquid cavity at first and finally reaches a constant value. As for the surface roughness, two structures (a semicircular cavity and a semicircular bulge) are studied. The comprehensive results show that although the displacement processes for both the structures depend on the surface wettability, they present quite different behaviors. Specially, for the roughness structure constituted by the semicircular cavity, the displacement efficiency decreases and displacement time increases evidently with the size of the semicircular cavity for the small contact angle. The trend slows down as the increase of the contact angle. Once the contact angle exceeds a certain value, the size of the semicircular cavity almost has no influence on the displacement process. While for the roughness structure of a semicircular bulge, the displacement efficiency increases with the size of bulge first and then it decreases for the small contact angle. The displacement efficiency increases first and finally reaches a constant for the large contact angle. The results also show that the displacement time has an extreme value in these cases for the small contact angles.

Experimental study of the intraventricular filling vortex in diastolic dysfunction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhanakrishnan, Arvind; Samaee, Milad; Nelsen, Nicholas

2016-11-01

Heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) is a clinical syndrome that is prevalent in over half of heart failure patients. HFNEF patients typically show diastolic dysfunction, caused by a decrease in relaxation capability of the left ventricular (LV) muscle tissue and/or an increase in LV chamber stiffness. Numerous studies using non-invasive medical imaging have shown that an intraventricular filling vortex is formed in the LV during diastole. We conducted 2D particle image velocimetry and hemodynamics measurements on a left heart simulator to investigate diastolic flow under increasing LV wall stiffness, LV wall thickness and heart rate (HR) conditions. Flexible-walled, optically clear LV physical models cast from silicone were fitted within a fluid-filled acrylic chamber. Pulsatile flow within the LV model was generated using a piston pump and 2-component Windkessel elements were used to tune the least stiff (baseline) LV model to physiological conditions. The results show that peak circulation of the intraventricular filling vortex is diminished in conditions of diastolic dysfunction as compared to the baseline case. Increasing HR exacerbated the circulation of the filling vortex across all cases.

Predicting Insulin Absorption and Glucose Uptake during Exercise in Type 1 Diabetes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Spencer; Hinshaw, Ling; Basu, Rita; Szeri, Andrew; Basu, Ananda

2017-11-01

A dose of insulin infused into subcutaneous tissue has been shown to absorb more quickly during exercise, potentially causing hypoglycemia in persons with type 1 diabetes. We develop a model that relates exercise-induced physiological changes to enhanced insulin-absorption (k) and glucose uptake (GU). Drawing on concepts of the microcirculation we derive a relationship that reveals that k and GU are mainly determined by two physiological parameters that characterize the tissue: the tissue perfusion rate (Q) and the capillary permeability surface area (PS). Independently measured values of Q and PS from the literature are used in the model to make predictions of k and GU. We compare these predictions to experimental observations of healthy and diabetic patients that are given a meal followed by rest or exercise. The experiments show that during exercise insulin concentrations significantly increase and that glucose levels fall rapidly. The model predictions are consistent with the experiments and show that increases in Q and PS directly increase k and GU. This mechanistic understanding provides a basis for handling exercise in control algorithms for an artificial pancreas. Now at University of British Columbia.

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Deforestation changes land-atmosphere interactions across South American biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, Alvaro; Katzfey, Jack; Thatcher, Marcus; Syktus, Jozef; Wong, Kenneth; McAlpine, Clive

2016-04-01

South American biomes are increasingly affected by land use/land cover change. However, the climatic impacts of this phenomenon are still not well understood. In this paper, we model vegetation-climate interactions with a focus on four main biomes distributed in four key regions: The Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado, the Dry Chaco, and the Chilean Matorral ecosystems. We applied a three member ensemble climate model simulation for the period 1981-2010 (30 years) at 25 km resolution over the focus regions to quantify the changes in the regional climate resulting from historical deforestation. The results of computed modelling experiments show significant changes in surface fluxes, temperature and moisture in all regions. For instance, simulated temperature changes were stronger in the Cerrado and the Chilean Matorral with an increase of between 0.7 and 1.4 °C. Changes in the hydrological cycle revealed high regional variability. The results showed consistent significant decreases in relative humidity and soil moisture, and increases in potential evapotranspiration across biomes, yet without conclusive changes in precipitation. These impacts were more significant during the dry season, which resulted to be drier and warmer after deforestation.

Integrated, Accountable Care For Medicaid Expansion Enrollees: A Comparative Evaluation of Hennepin Health.

PubMed

Vickery, Katherine D; Shippee, Nathan D; Menk, Jeremiah; Owen, Ross; Vock, David M; Bodurtha, Peter; Soderlund, Dana; Hayward, Rodney A; Davis, Matthew M; Connett, John; Linzer, Mark

2018-05-01

Hennepin Health, a Medicaid accountable care organization, began serving early expansion enrollees (very low-income childless adults) in 2012. It uses an integrated care model to address social and behavioral needs. We compared health care utilization in Hennepin Health with other Medicaid managed care in the same area from 2012 to 2014, controlling for demographics, chronic conditions, and enrollment patterns. Homelessness and substance use were higher in Hennepin Health. Overall adjusted results showed Hennepin Health had 52% more emergency department visits and 11% more primary care visits than comparators. Over time, modeling a 6-month exposure to Hennepin Health, emergency department and primary care visits decreased and dental visits increased; hospitalizations decreased nonsignificantly but increased among comparators. Subgroup analysis of high utilizers showed lower hospitalizations in Hennepin Health. Integrated, accountable care under Medicaid expansion showed some desirable trends and subgroup benefits, but overall did not reduce acute health care utilization versus other managed care.

Recent variability of the tropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Schmidt, Torsten; Neef, Lisa

2013-12-01

The recent variability of the tropopause temperature and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) are investigated with Global Positioning System Radio Occultation data and simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Over the past decade (2001-2011) the data show an increase of 0.8 K in the tropopause temperature and a decrease of 0.4 K in the strength of the tropopause inversion layer in the tropics, meaning that the vertical temperature gradient has declined, and therefore that the stability above the tropopause has weakened. WACCM simulations with finer vertical resolution show a more realistic TIL structure and variability. Model simulations show that the increased tropopause temperature and the weaker tropopause inversion layer are related to weakened upwelling in the tropics. Such changes in the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have important implications for climate, such as a possible rise in water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

Quasi-static and ratcheting properties of trabecular bone under uniaxial and cyclic compression.

PubMed

Gao, Li-Lan; Wei, Chao-Lei; Zhang, Chun-Qiu; Gao, Hong; Yang, Nan; Dong, Li-Min

2017-08-01

The quasi-static and ratcheting properties of trabecular bone were investigated by experiments and theoretical predictions. The creep tests with different stress levels were completed and it is found that both the creep strain and creep compliance increase rapidly at first and then increase slowly as the creep time goes by. With increase of compressive stress the creep strain increases and the creep compliance decreases. The uniaxial compressive tests show that the applied stress rate makes remarkable influence on the compressive behaviors of trabecular bone. The Young's modulus of trabecular bone increases with increase of stress rate. The stress-strain hysteresis loops of trabecular bone under cyclic load change from sparse to dense with increase of number of cycles, which agrees with the change trend of ratcheting strain. The ratcheting strain rate rapidly decreases at first, and then exhibits a relatively stable and small value after 50cycles. Both the ratcheting strain and ratcheting strain rate increase with increase of stress amplitude or with decrease of stress rate. The creep model and the nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model of trabecular bone were proposed and used to predict its creep property and rate-dependent compressive property. The results show that there are good agreements between the experimental data and predictions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydra effects in discrete-time models of stable communities.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H

2016-12-21

A species exhibits a hydra effect when, counter-intuitively, increased mortality of the species causes an increase in its abundance. Hydra effects have been studied in many continuous time (differential equation) multispecies models, but only rarely have hydra effects been observed in or studied with discrete time (difference equation) multispecies models. In addition most discrete time theory focuses on single-species models. Thus, it is unclear what unifying characteristics determine when hydra effects arise in discrete time models. Here, using discrete time multispecies models (where total abundance is the single variable describing each population), I show that a species exhibits a hydra effect in a stable system only when fixing that species' density at its equilibrium density destabilizes the system. This general characteristic is referred to as subsystem instability. I apply this result to two-species models and identify specific mechanisms that cause hydra effects in stable communities, e.g., in host--parasitoid models, host Allee effects and saturating parasitoid functional responses can cause parasitoid hydra effects. I discuss how the general characteristic can be used to identify mechanisms causing hydra effects in communities with three or more species. I also show that the condition for hydra effects at stable equilibria implies the system is reactive (i.e., density perturbations can grow before ultimately declining). This study extends previous work on conditions for hydra effects in single-species models by identifying necessary conditions for stable systems and sufficient conditions for cyclic systems. In total, these results show that hydra effects can arise in many more communities than previously appreciated and that hydra effects were present, but unrecognized, in previously studied discrete time models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

Effective model with strong Kitaev interactions for α -RuCl3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Takafumi; Suga, Sei-ichiro

2018-04-01

We use an exact numerical diagonalization method to calculate the dynamical spin structure factors of three ab initio models and one ab initio guided model for a honeycomb-lattice magnet α -RuCl3 . We also use thermal pure quantum states to calculate the temperature dependence of the heat capacity, the nearest-neighbor spin-spin correlation function, and the static spin structure factor. From the results obtained from these four effective models, we find that, even when the magnetic order is stabilized at low temperature, the intensity at the Γ point in the dynamical spin structure factors increases with increasing nearest-neighbor spin correlation. In addition, we find that the four models fail to explain heat-capacity measurements whereas two of the four models succeed in explaining inelastic-neutron-scattering experiments. In the four models, when temperature decreases, the heat capacity shows a prominent peak at a high temperature where the nearest-neighbor spin-spin correlation function increases. However, the peak temperature in heat capacity is too low in comparison with that observed experimentally. To address these discrepancies, we propose an effective model that includes strong ferromagnetic Kitaev coupling, and we show that this model quantitatively reproduces both inelastic-neutron-scattering experiments and heat-capacity measurements. To further examine the adequacy of the proposed model, we calculate the field dependence of the polarized terahertz spectra, which reproduces the experimental results: the spin-gapped excitation survives up to an onset field where the magnetic order disappears and the response in the high-field region is almost linear. Based on these numerical results, we argue that the low-energy magnetic excitation in α -RuCl3 is mainly characterized by interactions such as off-diagonal interactions and weak Heisenberg interactions between nearest-neighbor pairs, rather than by the strong Kitaev interactions.

Antibacterial effect of silver nanoparticles and the modeling of bacterial growth kinetics using a modified Gompertz model.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Tanaya; Chatterjee, Barun K; Majumdar, Dipanwita; Chakrabarti, Pinak

2015-02-01

An alternative to conventional antibiotics is needed to fight against emerging multiple drug resistant pathogenic bacteria. In this endeavor, the effect of silver nanoparticle (Ag-NP) has been studied quantitatively on two common pathogenic bacteria Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus, and the growth curves were modeled. The effect of Ag-NP on bacterial growth kinetics was studied by measuring the optical density, and was fitted by non-linear regression using the Logistic and modified Gompertz models. Scanning Electron Microscopy and fluorescence microscopy were used to study the morphological changes of the bacterial cells. Generation of reactive oxygen species for Ag-NP treated cells were measured by fluorescence emission spectra. The modified Gompertz model, incorporating cell death, fits the observed data better than the Logistic model. With increasing concentration of Ag-NP, the growth kinetics of both bacteria shows a decline in growth rate with simultaneous enhancement of death rate constants. The duration of the lag phase was found to increase with Ag-NP concentration. SEM showed morphological changes, while fluorescence microscopy using DAPI showed compaction of DNA for Ag-NP-treated bacterial cells. E. coli was found to be more susceptible to Ag-NP as compared to S. aureus. The modified Gompertz model, using a death term, was found to be useful in explaining the non-monotonic nature of the growth curve. The modified Gompertz model derived here is of general nature and can be used to study any microbial growth kinetics under the influence of antimicrobial agents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mate-finding as an overlooked critical determinant of dispersal variation in sexually-reproducing animals.

PubMed

Gilroy, James J; Lockwood, Julie L

2012-01-01

Dispersal is a critically important process in ecology, but robust predictive models of animal dispersal remain elusive. We identify a potentially ubiquitous component of variation in animal dispersal that has been largely overlooked until now: the influence of mate encounters on settlement probability. We use an individual-based model to simulate dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms that follow a simple set of movement rules based on conspecific encounters, within an environment lacking spatial habitat heterogeneity. We show that dispersal distances vary dramatically with fluctuations in population density in such a model, even in the absence of variation in dispersive traits between individuals. In a simple random-walk model with promiscuous mating, dispersal distributions become increasingly 'fat-tailed' at low population densities due to the increasing scarcity of mates. Similar variation arises in models incorporating territoriality. In a model with polygynous mating, we show that patterns of sex-biased dispersal can even be reversed across a gradient of population density, despite underlying dispersal mechanisms remaining unchanged. We show that some widespread dispersal patterns found in nature (e.g. fat tailed distributions) can arise as a result of demographic variability in the absence of heterogeneity in dispersive traits across the population. This implies that models in which individual dispersal distances are considered to be fixed traits might be unrealistic, as dispersal distances vary widely under a single dispersal mechanism when settlement is influenced by mate encounters. Mechanistic models offer a promising means of advancing our understanding of dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms.

Evolution of 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses during the pandemic correlates with increased viral pathogenicity and transmissibility in the ferret model.

PubMed

Otte, Anna; Marriott, Anthony C; Dreier, Carola; Dove, Brian; Mooren, Kyra; Klingen, Thorsten R; Sauter, Martina; Thompson, Katy-Anne; Bennett, Allan; Klingel, Karin; van Riel, Debby; McHardy, Alice C; Carroll, Miles W; Gabriel, Gülsah

2016-06-24

There is increasing evidence that 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to severe epidemics in subsequent waves. However, it still remains unclear which viral determinants might have contributed to disease severity after pandemic initiation. Here, we show that distinct mutations in the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus genome have occurred with increased frequency after pandemic declaration. Among those, a mutation in the viral hemagglutinin was identified that increases 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus binding to human-like α2,6-linked sialic acids. Moreover, these mutations conferred increased viral replication in the respiratory tract and elevated respiratory droplet transmission between ferrets. Thus, our data show that 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to novel virus variants that enhance viral replicative fitness and respiratory droplet transmission in a mammalian animal model. These findings might help to improve surveillance efforts to assess the pandemic risk by emerging influenza viruses.

Neural Networks Based Approach to Enhance Space Hardware Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zebulum, Ricardo S.; Thakoor, Anilkumar; Lu, Thomas; Franco, Lauro; Lin, Tsung Han; McClure, S. S.

2011-01-01

This paper demonstrates the use of Neural Networks as a device modeling tool to increase the reliability analysis accuracy of circuits targeted for space applications. The paper tackles a number of case studies of relevance to the design of Flight hardware. The results show that the proposed technique generates more accurate models than the ones regularly used to model circuits.

Evaluating the Teacher-Intern-Professor Model in a Professional Development School Partnership Setting Using a Bayesian Approach to Mix Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogletree, August E.

2009-01-01

Two needs of Georgia State University Professional Development School Partnerships are to show increases in both student academic achievement and teacher efficacy. The Teacher-Intern-Professor (TIP) Model was designed to address these needs. The TIP model focuses on using the university and school partnership to support Georgia State University…

Pattern classification using an olfactory model with PCA feature selection in electronic noses: study and application.

PubMed

Fu, Jun; Huang, Canqin; Xing, Jianguo; Zheng, Junbao

2012-01-01

Biologically-inspired models and algorithms are considered as promising sensor array signal processing methods for electronic noses. Feature selection is one of the most important issues for developing robust pattern recognition models in machine learning. This paper describes an investigation into the classification performance of a bionic olfactory model with the increase of the dimensions of input feature vector (outer factor) as well as its parallel channels (inner factor). The principal component analysis technique was applied for feature selection and dimension reduction. Two data sets of three classes of wine derived from different cultivars and five classes of green tea derived from five different provinces of China were used for experiments. In the former case the results showed that the average correct classification rate increased as more principal components were put in to feature vector. In the latter case the results showed that sufficient parallel channels should be reserved in the model to avoid pattern space crowding. We concluded that 6~8 channels of the model with principal component feature vector values of at least 90% cumulative variance is adequate for a classification task of 3~5 pattern classes considering the trade-off between time consumption and classification rate.

Changing Ocean, Changing Economics: Impact of Rising Temperatures on the American Lobster Landings and on the US-Canada Lobster Economics in the Emerging Chinese Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, C. H. J.

2016-02-01

Record high temperatures in 2012 pushed the start date of the Maine lobster fishing season three weeks earlier than normal. High landings during a compressed time period more than doubled the volume experienced in June and July. As supply outpaced demand, an average 40% decrease in ex-vessel price significantly reduced fishermen's profitability. This study examined how the timing and location of lobster landings is affected by ocean temperatures, number of trips, distance fished from shore, price, and seasonality. Weekly lobster landings and the number of fishing trips in eastern, central, and western Maine from 2008 to 2014 were combined with NERACOOS buoy temperatures to model the change in productivity. The model shows warming leads to significant increases in landings. We also used monthly landings, prices, and trade of live and processed lobster between the U.S. and Canada from 1990 to 2014 to specify a system of equations that captures how both markets are integrated and how they respond to changing market conditions. The model shows that an increase in landings in both areas leads to an increase in lobster trade and then to an increase in US imports of frozen lobster meat. Furthermore, lobster exports to the emerging Chinese market started to expand after 2012 and grew to account for 21% and 11% of the exports value from U.S. and Canada, respectively. From 2010 to 2014, a sub-system model is specified to address how increasing demand in the Chinese market for hard-shell lobster could create incentives to delay production and increase the supply of hard-shell live lobster. The full model was then used to explore ways in which this coastal social-ecological system can adapt to increasing ocean temperature and how the integrated global market might alter the economic implications of the next ocean heatwave.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID:26815039

Malachite Green Adsorption by Spent Coffee Grounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamimie Atirah Mat, Siti; Zati Hanani Syed Zuber, Sharifah; Rahim, Siti Kartini Enche Ab; Sohaimi, Khairunissa Syairah Ahmad; Halim, Noor Amirah Abdul; Fauziah Zainudin, Nor; Aida Yusoff, Nor; Munirah Rohaizad, Nor; Hidayah Ishak, Noor; Anuar, Adilah; Sarip, Mohd Sharizan Md

2018-03-01

In this work, the ability of spent coffee grounds (SCG) as a low-cost adsorbent to remove malachite green (MG) from aqueous solutions was studied. Batch adsorption tests were carried out to observe the effect of various experimental parameters such as contact time, initial concentration of malachite green and adsorbent dosage on the removal of dye. The results obtained show that the percentage of dye removal will decreased with the increased of initial concentration of dye in the range of 50 mg/L to 250 mg/L. Besides, percentage removal of dye was also found to be increased as the contact time increased until it reached equilibrium condition. The results also showed that the adsorbent dosage in range of 0.2 g to 1.0 g is proportional to the percentage removal of malachite green dye. Study on the kinetic adsorption and isotherm adsorption has also been investigated. The adsorption isotherm data were described by Langmuir isotherm with high-correlation coefficients while the experimental data showed the pseudo-second-order kinetics model was the best model for the adsorption of MG by SCG with the coefficients of correlation R2 > 0.9978.

Kinetics of microwave assisted extraction of pectin from Balinese orange peel using Pseudo-homogeneous model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megawati, Wulansarie, Ria; Faiz, Merisa Bestari; Adi, Susatyo; Sammadikun, Waliyuddin

2018-03-01

The objective of this work was to study the homogeneous kinetics of pectin extraction of Balinese orange peel conducted using Microwave Assisted Extraction (MAE). The experimental data showed that the power increases (180 to 600 W), so that the extraction yield of pectin also increases (12.2 to 30.6 % w/w). Moreover, the extraction time is longer (10, 15, and 20 min) the yield of pectin increases (8.8, 20.2, and 40.5). At time after of 20 min (25 and 30 min), the yield starts to decrease (36.6 and 22.9). This phenomena shows pectin degradation. Therefore, pectin extraction is a series reaction, i.e. extraction and degradation. The calculation result showed that pseudo series homogeneous model can quantitatively describe the extraction kinetics. The kinetic constants can be expressed by Arrhenius equation with the frequency factors of 1.58 × 105 and 2.29 × 105 1/min, while the activation energies are 64,350 and 56,571 J/mole for extraction and degradation, respectively.

Effect of Dietary Selenomethionine Supplementation on Growth Performance, Tissue Se Concentration, and Blood Glutathione Peroxidase Activity in Kid Boer Goats.

PubMed

Song, Yu-xuan; Hou, Jin-xing; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Jian-gang; Liu, Xiao-rui; Zhou, Zhan-qin; Cao, Bin-yun

2015-10-01

We used 240 kid Boer goats that were divided into six groups. The control group was fed a basal diet containing 0.05 mg of selenium (Se)/kg dry matter (DM). Trial groups received the basal diet supplemented with 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, or 0.5 mg Se/kg DM (using a commercial selenomethionine product). Trial groups showed an improvement in growth performance (P < 0.05) despite no change in average daily feed intakes (ADFIs) (P > 0.05) compared to the control group A, quadratic model showed a correlation between glutathione peroxidase activity level in whole blood and dietary Se concentration (R(2) = 0.883, P < 0.04). The best linear model showed that increasing concentrations of Se in the blood (R(2) = 0.968, P < 0.001) and muscle (R(2) = 0.942, P < 0.001) corresponded to increasing Se concentrations in feed. Accumulation of Se in different tissues and organs corresponded to increasing Se concentrations in the diet as well as to the total time goats spent feeding on supplemented diet. Kidney and muscle tissues showed the highest and lowest accumulation of Se, respectively. Thus, Se in goat meat can be increased by adding between 0.1 and 0.5 mg/kg of selenomethionine to the diet of goats.

More memory under evolutionary learning may lead to chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diks, Cees; Hommes, Cars; Zeppini, Paolo

2013-02-01

We show that an increase of memory of past strategy performance in a simple agent-based innovation model, with agents switching between costly innovation and cheap imitation, can be quantitatively stabilising while at the same time qualitatively destabilising. As memory in the fitness measure increases, the amplitude of price fluctuations decreases, but at the same time a bifurcation route to chaos may arise. The core mechanism leading to the chaotic behaviour in this model with strategy switching is that the map obtained for the system with memory is a convex combination of an increasing linear function and a decreasing non-linear function.

The impact law of confining pressure and plastic parameter on Dilatancy of rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Zhang, Zhenjie; Zhu, Jiebing

2017-08-01

Based on cyclic loading-unloading triaxle test of marble, the double parameter dilation angle model is established considering confining pressure effect and plastic parameter. Research shows that not only the strength but also the militancy behavior is highly depended on its confining pressure and plastic parameter during process of failure. Dilation angle evolution law shows obvious nonlinear characteristic almost with a rapid increase to the peak and then decrease gradually with plastic increasing, and the peak dilation angle value is inversely proportional with confining pressure. The proposed double parameter nonlinear dilation angle model can be used to well describe the Dilatancy of rock, which helps to understand the failure mechanism of surrounding rock mass and predict the range of plastic zone.

Improving emissions inventories in Mexico through systematic analysis of model performance along C-130 and DC-8 flight tracks during MILAGRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mena-Carrasco, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Campbell, J. E.; Tang, Y.; Chai, T.

2007-05-01

During the MILAGRO campaign in March 2006 the University of Iowa provided regional air quality forecasting for scientific flight planning for the C-130 and DC-8. Model performance showed positive bias of ozone prediction (~15ppbv), associated to overpredictions in precursor concentrations (~2.15 ppbv NOy and ~1ppmv ARO1). Model bias showed a distinct geographical pattern in which the higher values were in and near Mexico City. Newer runs in which NOx and VOC emissions were decreased improved ozone prediction, decreasing bias and increasing model correlation, at the same time reducing regional bias over Mexico. This work will evaluate model performance using the newly published Mexico National Emissions Inventory, and the introduction of data assimilation to recover emissions scaling factors to optimize model performance. Finally the results of sensitivity runs showing the regional impact of Mexico City emissions on ozone concentrations will be shown, along with the influence of Mexico City aerosol concentrations on regional photochemistry.

Effect of geometric size on mechanical properties of dielectric elastomers based on an improved visco-hyperelastic film model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Mengzhou; Wang, Zhenqing; Tong, Liyong; Liang, Wenyan

2017-03-01

Dielectric polymers show complex mechanical behaviors with different boundary conditions, geometry size and pre-stress. A viscoelastic model suitable for inhomogeneous deformation is presented integrating the Kelvin-Voigt model in a new form in this work. For different types of uniaxial tensile test loading along the length direction of sample, single-step-relaxation tests, loading-unloading tests and tensile-creep-relaxation tests the improved model provides a quite favorable comparison with the experiment results. Moreover, The mechanical properties of test sample with several length-width ratios under different boundary conditions are also invested. The influences of the different boundary conditions are calculated with a stress applied on the boundary point and the result show that the fixed boundary will increase the stress compare with homogeneous deformation. In modeling the effect of pre-stress in the shear test, three pre-stressed mode are discussed. The model validation on the general mechanical behavior shows excellent predictive capability.

Structural Identifiability of Dynamic Systems Biology Models

PubMed Central

Villaverde, Alejandro F.

2016-01-01

A powerful way of gaining insight into biological systems is by creating a nonlinear differential equation model, which usually contains many unknown parameters. Such a model is called structurally identifiable if it is possible to determine the values of its parameters from measurements of the model outputs. Structural identifiability is a prerequisite for parameter estimation, and should be assessed before exploiting a model. However, this analysis is seldom performed due to the high computational cost involved in the necessary symbolic calculations, which quickly becomes prohibitive as the problem size increases. In this paper we show how to analyse the structural identifiability of a very general class of nonlinear models by extending methods originally developed for studying observability. We present results about models whose identifiability had not been previously determined, report unidentifiabilities that had not been found before, and show how to modify those unidentifiable models to make them identifiable. This method helps prevent problems caused by lack of identifiability analysis, which can compromise the success of tasks such as experiment design, parameter estimation, and model-based optimization. The procedure is called STRIKE-GOLDD (STRuctural Identifiability taKen as Extended-Generalized Observability with Lie Derivatives and Decomposition), and it is implemented in a MATLAB toolbox which is available as open source software. The broad applicability of this approach facilitates the analysis of the increasingly complex models used in systems biology and other areas. PMID:27792726

Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Altered Precipitation Simulated by Land Surface Models across Three Long-term Grassland Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; Knapp, A.; Wilcox, K.; Bahn, M.; Smith, M. D.; Ito, A.; Arneth, A.; Harper, A. B.; Ukkola, A.; Paschalis, A.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Reick, C. H.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Reinthaler, D.; Chen, G.; Tian, H.; Helene, G.; Zscheischler, J.; Mao, J.; Ingrisch, J.; Nabel, J.; Pongratz, J.; Boysen, L.; Kautz, M.; Schmitt, M.; Krohn, M.; Zeng, N.; Meir, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, Q.; Hasibeder, R.; Vicca, S.; Sippel, S.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Fatichi, S.; Sitch, S.; Shi, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.; Liu, Y.; Piao, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in precipitation variability including the occurrence of extreme events strongly influence plant growth in grasslands. Field measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest a positive asymmetric response with wet years resulting in ANPP gains larger than ANPP declines in dry years. Whether land surface models used for historical simulations and future projections of the coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable to simulate such non-symmetrical ANPP responses remains an important open research question. In this study, we evaluate the simulated responses of grassland primary productivity to altered precipitation with fourteen land surface models at the three sites of Colorado Shortgrass Steppe (SGS), Konza prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU) along a rainfall gradient from dry to wet. Our results suggest that: (i) Gross primary production (GPP), NPP, ANPP and belowground NPP (BNPP) show nonlinear response curves (concave-down) in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. In contrast across the sites, primary production increases and then saturates along increasing precipitation with a flattening at the wetter site. (ii) Slopes of spatial relationships between modeled primary production and precipitation are steeper than the temporal slopes (obtained from inter-annual variations). (iii) Asymmetric responses under nominal precipitation range with modeled inter-annual primary production show large uncertainties, and model-ensemble median generally suggests negative asymmetry (greater declines in dry years than increases in wet years) across the three sites. (iv) Primary production at the drier site is predicted to more sensitive to precipitation compared to wetter site, and median sensitivity consistently indicates greater negative impacts of reduced precipitation than positive effects of increased precipitation under extreme conditions. This study implies that most models overemphasize the drought effects or underestimate the watering impacts on primary production in the normal-state, with the direct consequence that carbon-water interactions need to be improved in future model generations with improved mechanistic representations.

The Impact of a Continuous Participation Obligation in a Welfare Employment Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedlander, Daniel; Hamilton, Gayle

1996-01-01

A 5-year study of the Saturation Work Initiative Model (2290 participants, 2260 controls), which requires welfare recipients to work, showed that it increased employment and reduced welfare payments. However, income from increased employment did not offset the loss in welfare income. (SK)

Norisoprenoids, sesquiterpenes and terpenoids content of Valpolicella wines during ageing: investigating aroma potential in relationship to evolution of tobacco and balsamic aroma in aged wine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaghenaufi, Davide; Ugliano, Maurizio

2018-03-01

During wine ageing, tobacco and balsamic aroma notes appear. In this paper, volatile compounds directly or potentially related to those aromas have been investigated in Corvina and Corvinone wines during aging. Corvina and Corvinone are two northern-Italy autochthonous red grape varieties, used to produce Valpolicella Classico and Amarone wines, both characterized by tobacco and balsamic aroma notes. Wines were analysed shortly after bottling or following model ageing at 60 °C for 48, 72, and 168 hours. Volatile compounds were analysed by HS-SPME-GC-MS. Results showed that compounds related to tobacco aroma (β-damascenone, 3-oxo-α-ionol, (E)-1-(2,3,6-Trimethylphenyl)-buta-1,3-diene (TPB) and megastigmatrienones) increased in relationship to storage time with different patterns. β-Damascenone and 3-oxo-α-ionol rapidly increased to reach a plateau in the first 48-72 hours of model ageing. Instead, TPB and megastigmatrienones concentration showed a linear correlation with ageing time. During model ageing, several cyclic terpenes tended to increase. Among them 1,8-cineole and 1,4-cineole, previously reported to contribute to red wine eucalyptus notes increased proportionally to storage time, and this behavior was clearly associated with reactions involving α-terpineol, limonene and terpinolene, as confirmed by studies with model wine solutions. Among other relevant volatile compounds, sesquiterpenes appear to contribute potentially balsamic and spicy aroma notes. In this study, linear sesquiterpenes (nerolidol, farnesol) underwent acid hydrolysis during long wine ageing, while cyclic sesquiterpenes seemed to increase with time. The chemical pathways associated with evolution of some of the compounds investigated have been studied in model wine.

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The use of a battery of pain models to detect analgesic properties of compounds: a two‐part four‐way crossover study

PubMed Central

Okkerse, Pieter; van Amerongen, Guido; de Kam, Marieke L.; Stevens, Jasper; Butt, Richard P.; Gurrell, Rachel; Dahan, Albert; van Gerven, Joop M.; Hay, Justin L.

2017-01-01

Aim The aim was to investigate the ability of a battery of pain models to detect analgesic properties of commonly used analgesics in healthy subjects. Methods The battery consisted of tests eliciting electrical, mechanical and thermal (contact heat and cold pressor)‐pain and included a UVB model, the thermal grill illusion and a paradigm of conditioned pain modulation. Subjects were administered fentanyl 3 μg kg–1, phenytoin 300 mg, (S)‐ketamine 10 mg and placebo (part I), or imipramine 100 mg, pregabalin 300 mg, ibuprofen 600 mg and placebo (part II). Pain measurements were performed at baseline and up to 10 h post‐dose. Endpoints were analysed using a mixed model analysis of variance. Results Sixteen subjects (8 female) completed each part. The pain tolerance threshold (PTT) for electrical stimulation was increased (all P < 0.05) compared to placebo for (S)‐ketamine (+10.1%), phenytoin (+8.5%) and pregabalin (+10.8%). The PTT for mechanical pain was increased by pregabalin (+14.1%). The cold pressor PTT was increased by fentanyl (+17.1%) and pregabalin (+46.4%). Normal skin heat pain detection threshold was increased by (S)‐ketamine (+3.3%), fentanyl (+2.8%) and pregabalin (+4.1%). UVB treated skin pain detection threshold was increased by fentanyl (+2.6%) and ibuprofen (+4.0%). No differences in conditioned pain modulation were observed. Conclusion This study shows that these pain models are able to detect changes in pain thresholds after administration of different classes of analgesics in healthy subjects. The analgesic compounds all showed a unique profile in their effects on the pain tasks administered. PMID:27862179

The use of a battery of pain models to detect analgesic properties of compounds: a two-part four-way crossover study.

PubMed

Okkerse, Pieter; van Amerongen, Guido; de Kam, Marieke L; Stevens, Jasper; Butt, Richard P; Gurrell, Rachel; Dahan, Albert; van Gerven, Joop M; Hay, Justin L; Groeneveld, Geert Jan

2017-05-01

The aim was to investigate the ability of a battery of pain models to detect analgesic properties of commonly used analgesics in healthy subjects. The battery consisted of tests eliciting electrical, mechanical and thermal (contact heat and cold pressor)-pain and included a UVB model, the thermal grill illusion and a paradigm of conditioned pain modulation. Subjects were administered fentanyl 3 μg kg -1 , phenytoin 300 mg, (S)-ketamine 10 mg and placebo (part I), or imipramine 100 mg, pregabalin 300 mg, ibuprofen 600 mg and placebo (part II). Pain measurements were performed at baseline and up to 10 h post-dose. Endpoints were analysed using a mixed model analysis of variance. Sixteen subjects (8 female) completed each part. The pain tolerance threshold (PTT) for electrical stimulation was increased (all P < 0.05) compared to placebo for (S)-ketamine (+10.1%), phenytoin (+8.5%) and pregabalin (+10.8%). The PTT for mechanical pain was increased by pregabalin (+14.1%). The cold pressor PTT was increased by fentanyl (+17.1%) and pregabalin (+46.4%). Normal skin heat pain detection threshold was increased by (S)-ketamine (+3.3%), fentanyl (+2.8%) and pregabalin (+4.1%). UVB treated skin pain detection threshold was increased by fentanyl (+2.6%) and ibuprofen (+4.0%). No differences in conditioned pain modulation were observed. This study shows that these pain models are able to detect changes in pain thresholds after administration of different classes of analgesics in healthy subjects. The analgesic compounds all showed a unique profile in their effects on the pain tasks administered. © 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.

Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone - However, models will tend to overpredict O3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

1990-01-01

Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. The basic processes are illustrated with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale.

Effect of pathological heterogeneity on shear wave elasticity imaging in the staging of deep venous thrombosis

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaona; Li, Na; Wen, Chaoyang

2017-01-01

Background We aimed to observe the relationship between the pathological components of a deep venous thrombus (DVT), which was divided into three parts, and the findings on quantitative ultrasonic shear wave elastography (SWE) to increase the accuracy of thrombus staging in a rabbit model. Methods A flow stenosis-induced vein thrombosis model was used, and the thrombus was divided into three parts (head, body and tail), which were associated with corresponding observation points. Elasticity was quantified in vivo using SWE over a 2-week period. A quantitative pathologic image analysis (QPIA) was performed to obtain the relative percentages of the components of the main clots. Results DVT maturity occurred at 2 weeks, and the elasticity of the whole thrombus and the three parts (head, body and tail) showed an increasing trend, with the Young's modulus values varying from 2.36 ± 0.41 kPa to 13.24 ± 1.71 kPa; 2.01 ± 0.28 kPa to 13.29 ± 1.48 kPa; 3.27 ± 0.57 kPa to 15.91 ± 2.05 kPa; and 1.79 ± 0.36 kPa to 10.51 ± 1.61 kPa, respectively. Significant increases occurred on different days for the different parts: the head showed significant increases on days 4 and 6; the body showed significant increases on days 4 and 7; and the tail showed significant increases on days 3 and 6. The QPIA showed that the thrombus composition changed dynamically as the thrombus matured, with the fibrin and calcium salt deposition gradually increasing and the red blood cells (RBCs) and platelet trabecula gradually decreasing. Significant changes were observed on days 4 and 7, which may represent the transition points for acute, sub-acute and chronic thrombi. Significant heterogeneity was observed between and within the thrombi. Conclusions Variations in the thrombus components were generally consistent between the SWE and QPIA. Days 4 and 7 after thrombus induction may represent the transition points for acute, sub-acute and chronic thrombi in rabbit models. A dynamic examination of the same part of the thrombus may be helpful for improving the sensitivity and reproducibility of SWE for DVT diagnosis and staging. PMID:28614362

Effect of pathological heterogeneity on shear wave elasticity imaging in the staging of deep venous thrombosis.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaona; Li, Na; Wen, Chaoyang

2017-01-01

We aimed to observe the relationship between the pathological components of a deep venous thrombus (DVT), which was divided into three parts, and the findings on quantitative ultrasonic shear wave elastography (SWE) to increase the accuracy of thrombus staging in a rabbit model. A flow stenosis-induced vein thrombosis model was used, and the thrombus was divided into three parts (head, body and tail), which were associated with corresponding observation points. Elasticity was quantified in vivo using SWE over a 2-week period. A quantitative pathologic image analysis (QPIA) was performed to obtain the relative percentages of the components of the main clots. DVT maturity occurred at 2 weeks, and the elasticity of the whole thrombus and the three parts (head, body and tail) showed an increasing trend, with the Young's modulus values varying from 2.36 ± 0.41 kPa to 13.24 ± 1.71 kPa; 2.01 ± 0.28 kPa to 13.29 ± 1.48 kPa; 3.27 ± 0.57 kPa to 15.91 ± 2.05 kPa; and 1.79 ± 0.36 kPa to 10.51 ± 1.61 kPa, respectively. Significant increases occurred on different days for the different parts: the head showed significant increases on days 4 and 6; the body showed significant increases on days 4 and 7; and the tail showed significant increases on days 3 and 6. The QPIA showed that the thrombus composition changed dynamically as the thrombus matured, with the fibrin and calcium salt deposition gradually increasing and the red blood cells (RBCs) and platelet trabecula gradually decreasing. Significant changes were observed on days 4 and 7, which may represent the transition points for acute, sub-acute and chronic thrombi. Significant heterogeneity was observed between and within the thrombi. Variations in the thrombus components were generally consistent between the SWE and QPIA. Days 4 and 7 after thrombus induction may represent the transition points for acute, sub-acute and chronic thrombi in rabbit models. A dynamic examination of the same part of the thrombus may be helpful for improving the sensitivity and reproducibility of SWE for DVT diagnosis and staging.

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; ...

2010-01-01

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

Rainbow net analysis of VAXcluster system availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Allen M., Jr.; Schoenfelder, Michael A.

1991-01-01

A system modeling technique, Rainbow Nets, is used to evaluate the availability and mean-time-to-interrupt of the VAXcluster. These results are compared to the exact analytic results showing that reasonable accuracy is achieved through simulation. The complexity of the Rainbow Net does not increase as the number of processors increases, but remains constant, unlike a Markov model which expands exponentially. The constancy is achieved by using tokens with identity attributes (items) that can have additional attributes associated with them (features) which can exist in multiple states. The time to perform the simulation increases, but this is a polynomial increase rather than exponential. There is no restriction on distributions used for transition firing times, allowing real situations to be modeled more accurately by choosing the distribution which best fits the system performance and eliminating the need for simplifying assumptions.

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Transmission of trisomy decreases with maternal age in mouse models of Down syndrome, mirroring a phenomenon in human Down syndrome mothers.

PubMed

Stern, Shani; Biron, David; Moses, Elisha

2016-07-11

Down syndrome incidence in humans increases dramatically with maternal age. This is mainly the result of increased meiotic errors, but factors such as differences in abortion rate may play a role as well. Since the meiotic error rate increases almost exponentially after a certain age, its contribution to the overall incidence aneuploidy may mask the contribution of other processes. To focus on such selection mechanisms we investigated transmission in trisomic females, using data from mouse models and from Down syndrome humans. In trisomic females the a-priori probability for trisomy is independent of meiotic errors and thus approximately constant in the early embryo. Despite this, the rate of transmission of the extra chromosome decreases with age in females of the Ts65Dn and, as we show, for the Tc1 mouse models for Down syndrome. Evaluating progeny of 73 Tc1 births and 112 Ts65Dn births from females aged 130 days to 250 days old showed that both models exhibit a 3-fold reduction of the probability to transmit the trisomy with increased maternal ageing. This is concurrent with a 2-fold reduction of litter size with maternal ageing. Furthermore, analysis of previously reported 30 births in Down syndrome women shows a similar tendency with an almost three fold reduction in the probability to have a Down syndrome child between a 20 and 30 years old Down syndrome woman. In the two types of mice models for Down syndrome that were used for this study, and in human Down syndrome, older females have significantly lower probability to transmit the trisomy to the offspring. Our findings, taken together with previous reports of decreased supportive environment of the older uterus, add support to the notion that an older uterus negatively selects the less fit trisomic embryos.

Aerosol Impacts on California Winter Clouds and Precipitation during CalWater 2011: Local Pollution versus Long-Range Transported Dust

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; DeMott, Paul J.

2014-01-03

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations aremore » carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on February 16 (FEB16) and March 02 (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for assessing aerosol effects on cold season precipitation in California.« less

Chaotic attractors in tumor growth and decay: a differential equation model.

PubMed

Harney, Michael; Yim, Wen-sau

2015-01-01

Tumorigenesis can be modeled as a system of chaotic nonlinear differential equations. A simulation of the system is realized by converting the differential equations to difference equations. The results of the simulation show that an increase in glucose in the presence of low oxygen levels decreases tumor growth.

Fourier and non-Fourier bio-heat transfer models to predict ex vivo temperature response to focused ultrasound heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenghai; Miao, Jiaming; Yang, Kexin; Guo, Xiasheng; Tu, Juan; Huang, Pintong; Zhang, Dong

2018-05-01

Although predicting temperature variation is important for designing treatment plans for thermal therapies, research in this area is yet to investigate the applicability of prevalent thermal conduction models, such as the Pennes equation, the thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer, and the dual phase lag (DPL) model. To address this shortcoming, we heated a tissue phantom and ex vivo bovine liver tissues with focused ultrasound (FU), measured the temperature response, and compared the results with those predicted by these models. The findings show that, for a homogeneous-tissue phantom, the initial temperature increase is accurately predicted by the Pennes equation at the onset of FU irradiation, although the prediction deviates from the measured temperature with increasing FU irradiation time. For heterogeneous liver tissues, the predicted response is closer to the measured temperature for the non-Fourier models, especially the DPL model. Furthermore, the DPL model accurately predicts the temperature response in biological tissues because it increases the phase lag, which characterizes microstructural thermal interactions. These findings should help to establish more precise clinical treatment plans for thermal therapies.

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Nathan; Barahona, Donifan; Achuthavarier, Deepthi

2017-01-01

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

A scattering model for rain depolarization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiley, P. H.; Stutzman, W. L.; Bostian, C. W.

1973-01-01

A method is presented for calculating the amount of depolarization caused by precipitation for a propagation path. In the model the effects of each scatterer and their interactions are accounted for by using a series of simplifying steps. It is necessary only to know the forward scattering properties of a single scatterer. For the case of rain the results of this model for attenuation, differential phase shift, and cross polarization agree very well with the results of the only other model available, that of differential attenuation and differential phase shift. Calculations presented here show that horizontal polarization is more sensitive to depolarization than is vertical polarization for small rain drop canting angle changes. This effect increases with increasing path length.

Macroscopic Modeling of In Vivo Drug Transport in Electroporated Tissue.

PubMed

Boyd, Bradley; Becker, Sid

2016-03-01

This study develops a macroscopic model of mass transport in electroporated biological tissue in order to predict the cellular drug uptake. The change in the macroscopic mass transport coefficient is related to the increase in electrical conductivity resulting from the applied electric field. Additionally, the model considers the influences of both irreversible electroporation (IRE) and the transient resealing of the cell membrane associated with reversible electroporation. Two case studies are conducted to illustrate the applicability of this model by comparing transport associated with two electrode arrangements: side-by-side arrangement and the clamp arrangement. The results show increased drug transmission to viable cells is possible using the clamp arrangement due to the more uniform electric field.

Examining water quality effects of riparian wetland loss and restoration scenarios in a southern ontario watershed.

PubMed

Yang, Wanhong; Liu, Yongbo; Ou, Chunping; Gabor, Shane

2016-06-01

Wetland conservation has two important tasks: The first is to halt wetland loss and the second is to conduct wetland restoration. In order to facilitate these tasks, it is important to understand the environmental degradation from wetland loss and the environmental benefits from wetland restoration. The purpose of the study is to develop SWAT based wetland modelling to examine water quality effects of riparian wetland loss and restoration scenarios in the 323-km(2) Black River watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. The SWAT based wetland modelling was set up, calibrated and validated to fit into watershed conditions. The modelling was then applied to evaluate various scenarios of wetland loss from existing 7590 ha of riparian wetlands (baseline scenario) to 100% loss, and wetland restoration up to the year 1800 condition with 11,237 ha of riparian wetlands (100% restoration). The modelling was further applied to examine 100% riparian wetland loss and restoration in three subareas of the watershed to understand spatial pattern of water quality effects. Modelling results show that in comparing to baseline condition, the sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) loadings increase by 251.0%, 260.5%, and 890.9% respectively for 100% riparian wetland loss, and decrease by 34.5%, 28.3%, and 37.0% respectively for 100% riparian wetland restoration. Modelling results also show that as riparian wetland loss increases, the corresponding environmental degradation worsens at accelerated rates. In contrast, as riparian wetland restoration increases, the environmental benefits improve but at decelerated rates. Particularly, the water quality effects of riparian wetland loss or restoration show considerable spatial variations. The watershed wetland modelling contributes to inform decisions on riparian wetland conservation or restoration at different rates. The results further demonstrate the importance of targeting priority areas for stopping riparian wetland loss and initiating riparian wetland restoration based on scientific understanding of watershed wetland effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A role for subchondral bone changes in the process of osteoarthritis; a micro-CT study of two canine models.

PubMed

Sniekers, Yvonne H; Intema, Femke; Lafeber, Floris P J G; van Osch, Gerjo J V M; van Leeuwen, Johannes P T M; Weinans, Harrie; Mastbergen, Simon C

2008-02-12

This study evaluates changes in peri-articular bone in two canine models for osteoarthritis: the groove model and the anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLT) model. Evaluation was performed at 10 and 20 weeks post-surgery and in addition a 3-weeks time point was studied for the groove model. Cartilage was analysed, and architecture of the subchondral plate and trabecular bone of epiphyses was quantified using micro-CT. At 10 and 20 weeks cartilage histology and biochemistry demonstrated characteristic features of osteoarthritis in both models (very mild changes at 3 weeks). The groove model presented osteophytes only at 20 weeks, whereas the ACLT model showed osteophytes already at 10 weeks. Trabecular bone changes in the groove model were small and not consistent. This contrasts the ACLT model in which bone volume fraction was clearly reduced at 10 and 20 weeks (15-20%). However, changes in metaphyseal bone indicate unloading in the ACLT model, not in the groove model. For both models the subchondral plate thickness was strongly reduced (25-40%) and plate porosity was strongly increased (25-85%) at all time points studied. These findings show differential regulation of subchondral trabecular bone in the groove and ACLT model, with mild changes in the groove model and more severe changes in the ACLT model. In the ACLT model, part of these changes may be explained by unloading of the treated leg. In contrast, subchondral plate thinning and increased porosity were very consistent in both models, independent of loading conditions, indicating that this thinning is an early response in the osteoarthritis process.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime OC concentrations in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, D. V.; Logan, J. A.; Mickley, L. J.; Park, R. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2006-12-01

Increased forest fire activity in the Western United States appears to be driven by increasing spring and summer temperatures. Here we make a first estimate of how climate-driven changes in fire activity will influence summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations in the Western US. We use output from a general circulation model (GCM) combined with area burned regressions to predict how area burned will change between present day and 2050. Calculated area burned is used to create future emission estimates for the Western U.S. and we use a global chemical transport model (CTM) to predict future changes in OC concentrations. Stepwise linear regression is used to determine the best relationships between observed area burned for 1980- 2004 and variables chosen from temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall and drought indices from the Candaian Fire Weather Index Model. Best predictors are ecosytem dependent but typically include mean summer temperature and mean drought code. In forest ecosystems of the Western U.S. our regressions explain 50-60% of the variance in annual area burned. Between 2000 and 2050 increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, as predicted by the GISS GCM, cause mean area burned in the western U.S. to increase by 30-55%. We use the GEOS-Chem CTM to show that these increased emissions result in an increase in summertime western U.S. OC concentrations by 55% over current concentrations. Our results show that the predicted increase in future wild fires will have important consequences for western US air quality and visibility.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback.

PubMed

Dessler, A E; Schoeberl, M R; Wang, T; Davis, S M; Rosenlof, K H

2013-11-05

We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

Sensitivity of LES results from turbine rim seals to changes in grid resolution and sector size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Mahoney, T.; Hills, N.; Chew, J.

2012-07-01

Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) were carried out for a turbine rim seal and the sensitivity of the results to changes in grid resolution and the size of the computational domain are investigated. Ingestion of hot annulus gas into the rotor-stator cavity is compared between LES results and against experiments and Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) calculations. The LES calculations show greater ingestion than the URANS calculation and show better agreement with experiments. Increased grid resolution shows a small improvement in ingestion predictions whereas increasing the sector model size has little effect on the results. The contrast between the different CFD models is most stark in the inner cavity, where the URANS shows almost no ingestion. Particular attention is also paid to the presence of low frequency oscillations in the disc cavity. URANS calculations show such low frequency oscillations at different frequencies than the LES. The oscillations also take a very long time to develop in the LES. The results show that the difficult problem of estimating ingestion through rim seals could be overcome by using LES but that the computational requirements were still restrictive.

Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

2018-03-01

The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems.

Mathematical model of a parallel plate ammonia electrolyzer for combined wastewater remediation and hydrogen production.

PubMed

Estejab, Ali; Daramola, Damilola A; Botte, Gerardine G

2015-06-15

A mathematical model was developed for the simulation of a parallel plate ammonia electrolyzer to convert ammonia in wastewater to nitrogen and hydrogen under basic conditions. The model consists of fundamental transport equations, the ammonia oxidation kinetics at the anode, and the hydrogen evolution kinetics at the cathode of the electrochemical reactor. The model shows both qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental measurements at ammonia concentrations found within wastewater (200-1200 mg L(-1)). The optimum electrolyzer performance is dependent on both the applied voltage and the inlet concentrations. Maximum conversion of ammonia to nitrogen at the rates of 0.569 and 0.766 mg L(-1) min(-1) are achieved at low (0.01 M NH4Cl and 0.1 M KOH) and high (0.07 M NH4Cl and 0.15 M KOH) inlet concentrations, respectively. At high and low concentrations, an initial increase in the cell voltage will cause an increase in the system response - current density generated and ammonia converted. These system responses will approach a peak value before they start to decrease due to surface blockage and/or depletion of solvated species at the electrode surface. Furthermore, the model predicts that by increasing the reactant and electrolyte concentrations at a certain voltage, the peak current density will plateau, showing an asymptotic response. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An algorithm for the kinetics of tire pyrolysis under different heating rates.

PubMed

Quek, Augustine; Balasubramanian, Rajashekhar

2009-07-15

Tires exhibit different kinetic behaviors when pyrolyzed under different heating rates. A new algorithm has been developed to investigate pyrolysis behavior of scrap tires. The algorithm includes heat and mass transfer equations to account for the different extents of thermal lag as the tire is heated at different heating rates. The algorithm uses an iterative approach to fit model equations to experimental data to obtain quantitative values of kinetic parameters. These parameters describe the pyrolysis process well, with good agreement (r(2)>0.96) between the model and experimental data when the model is applied to three different brands of automobile tires heated under five different heating rates in a pure nitrogen atmosphere. The model agrees with other researchers' results that frequencies factors increased and time constants decreased with increasing heating rates. The model also shows the change in the behavior of individual tire components when the heating rates are increased above 30 K min(-1). This result indicates that heating rates, rather than temperature, can significantly affect pyrolysis reactions. This algorithm is simple in structure and yet accurate in describing tire pyrolysis under a wide range of heating rates (10-50 K min(-1)). It improves our understanding of the tire pyrolysis process by showing the relationship between the heating rate and the many components in a tire that depolymerize as parallel reactions.

On the climate impacts from the volcanic and solar forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varotsos, Costas A.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

The observed and the modelled estimations show that the main forcings on the atmosphere are of volcanic and solar origins, which act however in an opposite way. The former can be very strong and decrease at short time scales, whereas, the latter increase with time scale. On the contrary, the observed fluctuations in temperatures increase at long scales (e.g. centennial and millennial), and the solar forcings do increase with scale. The common practice is to reduce forcings to radiative equivalents assuming that their combination is linear. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its range of validity, we systematically compare the statistical properties of solar only, volcanic only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years. Additionally, we attempt to investigate plausible reasons for the discrepancies observed between the measured and modeled anomalies of tropospheric temperatures in the tropics. For this purpose, we analyse tropospheric temperature anomalies for both the measured and modeled time series. The results obtained show that the measured temperature fluctuations reveal white noise behavior, while the modeled ones exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the persistent signal, should be removed from the modeled values in order to achieve better agreement with observations. Keywords: Scaling, Nonlinear variability, Climate system, Solar radiation

Effects of some antipsychotics and a benzodiazepine hypnotic on the sleep-wake pattern in an animal model of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Ishida, Takayuki; Obara, Yoshihito; Kamei, Chiaki

2009-09-01

We studied the effects of antipsychotics and a hypnotic on sleep disturbance in schizophrenia using an animal model of the disease. Electrodes for the electroencephalogram (EEG) and electromyogram (EMG) were chronically implanted into the cortex and the dorsal neck muscle of rats. EEG and EMG were recorded with an electroencephalograph for 6 h (10:00 - 16:00). SleepSign ver. 2.0 was used for EEG and EMG analysis. Haloperidol and olanzapine had an antagonizing effect on the increases in sleep latency and total awake time and the decrease in total non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep time induced by MK-801. Olanzapine also antagonized the decrease in total rapid eye movement (REM) sleep time induced by MK-801. Aripiprazole antagonized only the increase in sleep latency induced by MK-801, whereas, risperidone, quetiapine, and flunitrazepam had no effect in the changes of sleep-wake pattern induced by MK-801. Olanzapine increased delta activity and decreased beta activity during NREM sleep. In contrast, flunitrazepam had an opposite effect. It was clarified that haloperidol and olanzapine were effective for decrease of sleep time in this animal model of schizophrenia. In addition, aripiprazole showed a sleep-inducing effect in schizophrenia model rat. On the other hand, flunitrazepam showed no beneficial effect on sleep disturbance in schizophrenia model rat.

Batch and continuous (fixed-bed column) biosorption of crystal violet by Artocarpus heterophyllus (jackfruit) leaf powder.

PubMed

Saha, Papita Das; Chakraborty, Sagnik; Chowdhury, Shamik

2012-04-01

In this study, batch and fixed-bed column experiments were performed to investigate the biosorption potential of Artocarpus heterophyllus (jackfruit) leaf powder (JLP) to remove crystal violet (CV) from aqueous solutions. Batch biosorption studies were carried out as a function of solution pH, contact time, initial dye concentration and temperature. The biosorption equilibrium data showed excellent fit to the Langmuir isotherm model with maximum monolayer biosorption capacity of 43.39 mg g(-1) at pH 7.0, initial dye concentration=50 mg L(-1), temperature=293 K and contact time=120 min. According to Dubinin-Radushkevich (D-R) isotherm model, biosorption of CV by JLP was chemisorption. The biosorption kinetics followed the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. Thermodynamic analysis revealed that biosorption of CV from aqueous solution by JLP was a spontaneous and exothermic process. In order to ascertain the practical applicability of the biosorbent, fixed-bed column studies were also performed. The breakthrough time increased with increasing bed height and decreased with increasing flow rate. The Thomas model as well as the BDST model showed good agreement with the experimental results at all the process parameters studied. It can be concluded that JLP is a promising biosorbent for removal of CV from aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Chao-Yuan; Liu, Jiping (Inventor); Hu, Yongyun; Horton, Radley M.; Chen, Liqi; Cheng, Xiao

2016-01-01

This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

Self-heating in piezoresistive cantilevers

PubMed Central

Doll, Joseph C.; Corbin, Elise A.; King, William P.; Pruitt, Beth L.

2011-01-01

We report experiments and models of self-heating in piezoresistive microcantilevers that show how cantilever measurement resolution depends on the thermal properties of the surrounding fluid. The predicted cantilever temperature rise from a finite difference model is compared with detailed temperature measurements on fabricated devices. Increasing the fluid thermal conductivity allows for lower temperature operation for a given power dissipation, leading to lower force and displacement noise. The force noise in air is 76% greater than in water for the same increase in piezoresistor temperature. PMID:21731884

Self-heating in piezoresistive cantilevers.

PubMed

Doll, Joseph C; Corbin, Elise A; King, William P; Pruitt, Beth L

2011-05-30

We report experiments and models of self-heating in piezoresistive microcantilevers that show how cantilever measurement resolution depends on the thermal properties of the surrounding fluid. The predicted cantilever temperature rise from a finite difference model is compared with detailed temperature measurements on fabricated devices. Increasing the fluid thermal conductivity allows for lower temperature operation for a given power dissipation, leading to lower force and displacement noise. The force noise in air is 76% greater than in water for the same increase in piezoresistor temperature.

The morphological state space revisited: what do phylogenetic patterns in homoplasy tell us about the number of possible character states?

PubMed Central

Hoyal Cuthill, Jennifer F.

2015-01-01

Biological variety and major evolutionary transitions suggest that the space of possible morphologies may have varied among lineages and through time. However, most models of phylogenetic character evolution assume that the potential state space is finite. Here, I explore what the morphological state space might be like, by analysing trends in homoplasy (repeated derivation of the same character state). Analyses of ten published character matrices are compared against computer simulations with different state space models: infinite states, finite states, ordered states and an ‘inertial' model, simulating phylogenetic constraints. Of these, only the infinite states model results in evolution without homoplasy, a prediction which is not generally met by real phylogenies. Many authors have interpreted the ubiquity of homoplasy as evidence that the number of evolutionary alternatives is finite. However, homoplasy is also predicted by phylogenetic constraints on the morphological distance that can be traversed between ancestor and descendent. Phylogenetic rarefaction (sub-sampling) shows that finite and inertial state spaces do produce contrasting trends in the distribution of homoplasy. Two clades show trends characteristic of phylogenetic inertia, with decreasing homoplasy (increasing consistency index) as we sub-sample more distantly related taxa. One clade shows increasing homoplasy, suggesting exhaustion of finite states. Different clades may, therefore, show different patterns of character evolution. However, when parsimony uninformative characters are excluded (which may occur without documentation in cladistic studies), it may no longer be possible to distinguish inertial and finite state spaces. Interestingly, inertial models predict that homoplasy should be clustered among comparatively close relatives (parallel evolution), whereas finite state models do not. If morphological evolution is often inertial in nature, then homoplasy (false homology) may primarily occur between close relatives, perhaps being replaced by functional analogy at higher taxonomic scales. PMID:26640650

Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sridhar, Venkataramana; Billah, Mirza M; Hildreth, John W

2017-11-09

Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC-MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC-MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC-MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of -0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative-forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater-surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Synergistic effect of estradiol and fluoxetine in young adult and middle-aged female rats in two models of experimental depression.

PubMed

Récamier-Carballo, Soledad; Estrada-Camarena, Erika; Reyes, Rebeca; Fernández-Guasti, Alonso

2012-08-01

The antidepressant effect of estrogens combined with antidepressants is controversial: some preclinical data showed that estrogens facilitate the effect of antidepressants in the forced swimming test (FST) in young adult rats, while others failed to find such effect in middle-aged rats in the chronic mild stress (CMS) model. In clinics similar differences were reported and may be due to the compounds, the depression model or type of depression, the experimental design, and the age of the subjects or the women's menopause stage. The objective of this study was to analyze the antidepressant-like effect of the combination of 17β-estradiol (E(2)) and fluoxetine (FLX) in young adults (2-4 months) and middle-aged (12-14 months) ovariectomized (OVX) rats in two experimental models: FST and CMS. E(2) (5 and 10 μg/rat) and FLX (2.5 and 10 mg/kg) per se dose-dependently reduced immobility in both age groups and, in young adults both compounds increased swimming, whereas in middle-aged rats they increased swimming and climbing. Analysis of the antidepressant-like effect of the combination of suboptimal doses of FLX (1.25 mg/kg) and E(2) (2.5 μg/rat) showed a decrease in immobility and an increase in swimming in both age groups. In the CMS, chronic E(2) (2.5 μg/rat) with FLX (1.25 mg/kg) augmented relative sucrose intake, but middle-aged rats responded 2 weeks earlier than young adults. These results show that the antidepressant-like effect of the combination of E(2) and FLX in young adult and middle-aged female rats is evidenced in the two animal models of depression: FST and CMS. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased pCREB expression and the spontaneous epileptiform activity in a BCNU-treated rat model of cortical dysplasia.

PubMed

Pennacchio, Paolo; Noé, Francesco; Gnatkovsky, Vadym; Moroni, Ramona Frida; Zucca, Ileana; Regondi, Maria Cristina; Inverardi, Francesca; de Curtis, Marco; Frassoni, Carolina

2015-09-01

Cortical dysplasias (CDs) represent a wide range of cortical abnormalities that closely correlate with intractable epilepsy. Rats prenatally exposed to 1-3-bis-chloroethyl-nitrosurea (BCNU) represent an injury-based model that reproduces many histopathologic features of human CD. Previous studies reported in vivo hyperexcitability in this model, but in vivo epileptogenicity has not been confirmed. To determine whether cortical and hippocampal lesions lead to epileptiform discharges and/or seizures in the BCNU model, rats at three different ages (3, 5, and 9 months old) were implanted for long-term video electroencephalographic recording. At the end of the recording session, brain tissue was processed for histologic and immunohistochemical investigation including cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) phosphorylation, as a biomarker of epileptogenicity. BCNU-treated rats showed spontaneous epileptiform activity (67%) in the absence of a second seizure-provoking hit. Such activity originated mainly from one hippocampus and propagated to the ipsilateral neocortex. No epileptiform activity was found in age-matched control rats. The histopathologic investigation revealed that all BCNU rats with epileptiform activity showed neocortical and hippocampal abnormalities; the presence and the severity of these lesions did not correlate consistently with the propensity to generate epileptiform discharges. Epileptiform activity was found only in cortical areas of BCNU-treated rats in which a correlation between brain abnormalities and increased pCREB expression was observed. This study demonstrates the in vivo occurrence of spontaneous epileptiform discharges in the BCNU model and shows that increased pCREB expression can be utilized as a reliable biomarker of epileptogenicity. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

Analysis of difference of association between polymorphisms in the XRCC5, RPA3 and RTEL1 genes and glioma, astrocytoma and glioblastoma

PubMed Central

Jin, Tianbo; Wang, Yuan; Li, Gang; Du, Shuli; Yang, Hua; Geng, Tingting; Hou, Peng; Gong, Yongkuan

2015-01-01

Background: Gliomas are the most common aggressive brain tumors and have many complex pathological types. Previous reports have discovered that genetic mutations are associated with the risk of glioma. However, it is unclear whether uniform genetic mutations exist difference between glioma and its two pathological types in the Han Chinese population. Materials and methods: We evaluated 20 SNPs of 703 glioma cases (338 astrocytoma cases, 122 glioblastoma cases) and 635 controls in a Han Chinese population using χ2 test and genetic model analysis. Results: In three case-control studies, we found rs9288516 in XRCC5 gene showed a decreased risk of glioma (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.99; P = 0.042) and glioblastoma (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.92; P = 0.001) in the allele model. We identified rs414805 in RPA3 gene showed an increased risk of glioblastoma in allele model (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.00-1.89; P = 0.047) and dominant model (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.05-2.35; P = 0.027), analysis respectively. Meanwhile, rs2297440 in RTEL1 gene showed an increased risk of glioma (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.10-1.54; P = 0.002) and astrocytoma (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.02-1.54; P = 0.029) in the allele model. In addition, we also observed a haplotype of “GCT” in the RTEL1 gene with an increased risk of astrocytoma (P = 0.005). Conclusions: Polymorphisms in the XRCC5, RPA3 and RTEL1 genes, combinating with previous reaserches, are associated with glioma developing. However, those genes mutations may play different roles in the glioma, astrocytoma and glioblastoma, respectively. PMID:26328260

Analysis of difference of association between polymorphisms in the XRCC5, RPA3 and RTEL1 genes and glioma, astrocytoma and glioblastoma.

PubMed

Jin, Tianbo; Wang, Yuan; Li, Gang; Du, Shuli; Yang, Hua; Geng, Tingting; Hou, Peng; Gong, Yongkuan

2015-01-01

Gliomas are the most common aggressive brain tumors and have many complex pathological types. Previous reports have discovered that genetic mutations are associated with the risk of glioma. However, it is unclear whether uniform genetic mutations exist difference between glioma and its two pathological types in the Han Chinese population. We evaluated 20 SNPs of 703 glioma cases (338 astrocytoma cases, 122 glioblastoma cases) and 635 controls in a Han Chinese population using χ(2) test and genetic model analysis. In three case-control studies, we found rs9288516 in XRCC5 gene showed a decreased risk of glioma (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.99; P = 0.042) and glioblastoma (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.92; P = 0.001) in the allele model. We identified rs414805 in RPA3 gene showed an increased risk of glioblastoma in allele model (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.00-1.89; P = 0.047) and dominant model (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.05-2.35; P = 0.027), analysis respectively. Meanwhile, rs2297440 in RTEL1 gene showed an increased risk of glioma (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.10-1.54; P = 0.002) and astrocytoma (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.02-1.54; P = 0.029) in the allele model. In addition, we also observed a haplotype of "GCT" in the RTEL1 gene with an increased risk of astrocytoma (P = 0.005). Polymorphisms in the XRCC5, RPA3 and RTEL1 genes, combinating with previous reaserches, are associated with glioma developing. However, those genes mutations may play different roles in the glioma, astrocytoma and glioblastoma, respectively.

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lyndon D.; Beukes, Hein; Bradley, Bethany A.; Debats, Stephanie R.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Schulze, Roland; Tadross, Mark

2013-01-01

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

Leuco-crystal-violet micelle gel dosimeters: Component effects on dose-rate dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. C.; Katz, E. A. B.; Alexander, K. M.; Schreiner, L. J.; McAuley, K. B.

2017-05-01

Designed experiments were performed to produce empirical models for the dose sensitivity, initial absorbance, and dose-rate dependence respectively for leucocrystal violet (LCV) micelle gel dosimeters containing cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) and 2,2,2-trichloroethanol (TCE). Previous gels of this type showed dose-rate dependent behaviour, producing an ˜18% increase in dose sensitivity between dose rates of 100 and 600 cGy min-1. Our models predict that the dose rate dependence can be reduced by increasing the concentration of TCE, CTAB and LCV. Increasing concentrations of LCV and CTAB produces a significant increase in dose sensitivity with a corresponding increase in initial absorbance. An optimization procedure was used to determine a nearly dose-rate independent gel which maintained high sensitivity and low initial absorbance. This gel which contains 33 mM CTAB, 1.25 mM LCV, and 96 mM TCE in 25 mM trichloroacetic acid and 4 wt% gelatin showed an increase in dose sensitivity of only 4% between dose rates of 100 and 600 cGy min-1, and provides an 80% greater dose sensitivity compared to Jordan’s standard gels with similar initial absorbance.

Coupling Meteorological, Land Surface and Water Temperature Models in the Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, C.; Cooter, E. J.

2017-12-01

Water temperature is a significant factor influencing of the stream ecosystem and water management especially under climate change. In this study, we demonstrate a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model (RBM) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model and Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The results of this coupling compare favorably with observed water temperature data at river gages throughout the MRB. Further sensitivity analysis shows that mean water temperatures increase by 1.3°C, 1.5°C, and 1.8°C in northern, central and southern MRB zones, respectively, under a hypothetical uniform air temperature increase of 3°C. If air temperatures increase uniformly by 6°C in this scenario, then water temperatures are projected to increase by 3.3°C, 3.5°C and 4.0°C. Lastly, downscaled air temperatures from a global climate model are used to drive the coupled VIC and RBM model from 2020 to 2099. Average stream temperatures from 2020 to 2099 increase by 1°C to 8°C above 1950 to 2010 average water temperatures, with non-uniform increases along the river. In some portions of the MRB, stream temperatures could increase above survival thresholds for several native fish species, which are critical components of the stream ecosystem. The increased water temperature accelerates harmful algal blooming which results in a larger dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models.

PubMed

Bopp, L; Resplandy, L; Untersee, A; Le Mezo, P; Kageyama, M

2017-09-13

All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O 2sat ) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O 2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O 2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjær, Kari; Karam, Diana Bou; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, James M.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Lunt, Daniel J.; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-08-01

geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2 mm day-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier

2013-08-09

Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwisemore » occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.« less

Formation patterns of water clusters in CMK-3 and CMK-5 mesoporous carbons: a computational recognition study.

PubMed

Peng, Xuan; Jain, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Jayant Kumar; Liu, Anqi; Jin, Qibing

2018-06-13

Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations are performed to study the adsorption of water in realistic CMK-3 and CMK-5 models at 300 K. The adsorption isotherms are characterized by negligible uptake at lower chemical potentials and complete pore filling once the threshold chemical potential is increased. Results for the isosteric heat of adsorption, radial distribution function (O-O and O-H), hydrogen bond statistics and the cluster size distribution of water molecules are presented. The snapshots of GCMC simulations in CMK-3 and CMK-5 models show that the adsorption happens via the formation of water clusters. For the CMK-3 model, it was found that the pore filling occurred via the formation of a single water cluster and a few very small clusters. The water cluster size increased with an increase in pore size of the CMK-3 model. For the CMK-5 model, it was found that the adsorption first occurred in the inner porosity (via cluster formation). There was no adsorption of water in the outer porosity during the filling of the inner porosity. After the inner porosity was completely filled, the water begins to fill the outer porosity. Snapshots from GCMC simulations of the CMK-5 model clearly show that the water adsorption in the outer porosity occurs via the formation and growth of clusters and there was no formation of layers of water in the porosity as seen for nonpolar fluids like nitrogen.

Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Untersee, A.; Le Mezo, P.; Kageyama, M.

2017-08-01

All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O2sat) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Author Slide Shows & Texas Wildlife: Thematic Multimedia Projects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monahan, Susan; Susong, Dee

1996-01-01

Describes two multimedia projects at Brentwood Elementary School (Austin, Texas) that are models for training teachers, and students with special needs, about technology. Students authored a multimedia slide show and created HyperStudio stacks about Texas wildlife. The projects increased motivation and improved reading, writing, problem-solving,…

Pleiotropic effects of interleukin-6 in a "two-hit" murine model of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

PubMed

Goldman, Julia L; Sammani, Saad; Kempf, Carrie; Saadat, Laleh; Letsiou, Eleftheria; Wang, Ting; Moreno-Vinasco, Liliana; Rizzo, Alicia N; Fortman, Jeffrey D; Garcia, Joe G N

2014-06-01

Patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) exhibit elevated levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), which correlate with increased morbidity and mortality. The exact role of IL-6 in ARDS has proven difficult to study because it exhibits either pro- or anti-inflammatory actions in mouse models of lung injury, depending on the model utilized. In order to improve understanding of the role of this complex cytokine in ARDS, we evaluated IL-6 using the clinically relevant combination of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) in IL-6(-/-) mice. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL), whole-lung tissue, and histology were evaluated for inflammatory markers of injury. Transendothelial electrical resistance was used to evaluate the action of IL-6 on endothelial cells in vitro. In wild-type mice, the combination model showed a significant increase in lung injury compared to either LPS or VILI alone. IL-6(-/-) mice exhibited a statistically significant decrease in BAL cellular inflammation as well as lower histologic scores for lung injury, changes observed only in the combination model. A paradoxical increase in BAL total protein was observed in IL-6(-/-) mice exposed to LPS, suggesting that IL-6 provides protection from vascular leakage. However, in vitro data showed that IL-6, when combined with its soluble receptor, actually caused a significant increase in endothelial cell permeability, suggesting that the protection seen in vivo was likely due to complex interactions of IL-6 and other inflammatory mediators rather than to direct effects of IL-6. These studies suggest that a dual-injury model exhibits utility in evaluating the pleiotropic effects of IL-6 in ARDS on inflammatory cells and lung endothelium.

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2013-02-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed over the recent decades. However, few models consider the feedback between water availability and water demand, and even fewer models explicitly incorporate water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we integrate a global water demand model into a global water balance model, and simulate water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, considering water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources and explicitly taking into account feedbacks between supply and demand, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We implement an irrigation water scheme, which works dynamically with daily surface and soil water balance, and include a newly available extensive reservoir data set. Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawal show generally good agreement with available reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, but groundwater use has been increasing more rapidly than surface water use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. The alteration is particularly large over the heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2014-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive Global Reservoir and Dams data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and subnational statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and interannual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

Global Modeling of Withdrawal, Allocation and Consumptive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F.

2014-12-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive global reservoir data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

Detection of phosphatidylserine-positive exosomes for the diagnosis of early-stage malignancies.

PubMed

Sharma, Raghava; Huang, Xianming; Brekken, Rolf A; Schroit, Alan J

2017-08-08

There has been increasing interest in the detection of tumour exosomes in blood for cancer diagnostics. Most studies have focussed on miRNA and protein signatures that are surrogate markers for specific tumour types. Because tumour cells and tumour-derived exosomes display phosphatidylserine (PS) in their outer membrane leaflet, we developed a highly sensitive ELISA-based system that detects picogram amounts of exosomal phospholipid in plasma as a cancer biomarker. This report describes the development of a highly specific and sensitive ELISA for the capture of PS-expressing tumour exosomes in the blood of tumour-bearing mice. To monitor the relationship between tumour burden and tumour exosome plasma concentrations, plasma from one transplantable breast cancer model (MDA-MB-231) and three genetic mouse models (MMTV-PyMT; breast and KIC and KPC; pancreatic) were screened for captured exosomal phospholipid. We show that quantitative assessment of PS-expressing tumour exosomes detected very early-stage malignancies before clinical evidence of disease in all four model systems. Tumour exosome levels showed significant increases by day 7 after tumour implantation in the MDA-MB-231 model while palpable tumours appeared only after day 27. For the MMTV-PyMT and KIC models, tumour exosome levels increased significantly by day 49 (P⩽0.0002) and day 21 (P⩽0.001) while tumours developed only after days 60 and 40, respectively. For the KPC model, a significant increase in blood exosome levels was detected by day 70 (P=0.023) when only preinvasive lesions are microscopically detectable. These data indicate that blood PS exosome levels is a specific indicator of cancer and suggest that blood PS is a biomarker for early-stage malignancies.

Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion controls transient anomalous transport in alluvial aquifer-aquitard complexes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yong; Green, Christopher T; Tick, Geoffrey R

2015-01-01

This study evaluates the role of the Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion in transient anomalous transport, which is one of the major knowledge gaps in anomalous transport, by combining Monte Carlo simulations and stochastic model analysis. Two alluvial settings containing either short- or long-connected hydrofacies are generated and used as media for flow and transport modeling. Numerical experiments show that 1) the Peclet number affects both the duration of the power-law segment of tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs) and the transition rate from anomalous to Fickian transport by determining the solute residence time for a given low-permeability layer, 2) mechanical dispersion has a limited contribution to the anomalous characteristics of late-time transport as compared to molecular diffusion due to an almost negligible velocity in floodplain deposits, and 3) the initial source dimensions only enhance the power-law tail of the BTCs at short travel distances. A tempered stable stochastic (TSS) model is then applied to analyze the modeled transport. Applications show that the time-nonlocal parameters in the TSS model relate to the Peclet number, Pe. In particular, the truncation parameter in the TSS model increases nonlinearly with a decrease in Pe due to the decrease of the mean residence time, and the capacity coefficient increases with an increase in molecular diffusion which is probably due to the increase in the number of immobile particles. The above numerical experiments and stochastic analysis therefore reveal that the Peclet number as affected by molecular diffusion controls transient anomalous transport in alluvial aquifer-aquitard complexes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low-Speed Static Stability and Control Characteristics of a Model of a Right Triangular Pyramid Reentry Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paulson, John W.

1959-01-01

An investigation of the low-speed static stability and control characteristics of a model of a right triangular pyramid reentry configuration has been made in the Langley free-flight tunnel. The investigation showed that the model had generally satisfactory longitudinal and lateral static stability characteristics. The maximum lift-drag ratio was increased from about 3 to 5 by boattailing the base of the model.

TU-H-CAMPUS-TeP3-01: Gold Nanoparticle-Enhanced Radiation Therapy in In Vitro A549 Lung Carcinoma: Studies in Both Traditional Monolayer and Three Dimensional Cell Culture Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oumano, M; University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; Ngwa, W

Purpose: To measure the increase in in vitro radiosensitivity for A549 lung carcinoma cells due to gold nanoparticle (GNP) radiation dose enhancement in both traditional monolayer and three dimensional (3D) cell culture models. Methods: A γH2AX immunofluorescence assay is performed on monolayer A549 cell culture and quantitatively analyzed to measure the increase in double strand breaks (DSBs) resulting from GNP dose enhancement. A clonogenic survival assay (CSA) is then performed on monolayer A549 cell culture to assess true viability after treatment. And lastly, another γH2AX assay is performed on 3D A549 multicellular nodules overlaid on a bed of growth factormore » reduced matrigel to measure dose response in a model that better recapitulates treatment response to actual tumors in vivo. Results: The first γH2AX assay performed on the monolayer cell culture shows a significant increase in DSBs due to GNP dose enhancement. The maximum average observed increase in normalized fluorescent intensity for monolayer cell culture is 171% for the 6Gy-treatment groups incubated in 0.556 mg Au/ml solution. The CSA performed on monolayer cell culture also shows considerable GNP dose enhancement. The maximum decrease in the normalized surviving fraction is 12% for the 4Gy-treatment group incubated in 0.556 mg Au/ml. And lastly, the GNP dose enhancement is confirmed to be mitigated in three dimensional cell culture models as compared to the traditional monolayer model. The maximum average observed dose enhancement for 3D cell culture is 19% for the 6Gy-treatment groups and incubated in 0.556 mg Au/ml. Conclusion: A marked increase in radiosensitivity is observed for A549 lung carcinoma cells when treated with GNPs plus radiation as opposed to radiation alone. Traditional monolayer cell culture also shows a much more pronounced radiation dose enhancement than 3D cell culture.« less

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea [review article

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuorinen, I.; Hänninen, J.; Kornilovs, G.

2003-12-01

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r2 > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

Aerial photo of San Bernadina and San Gabriel mountains

NASA Image and Video Library

2000-02-04

JSC2000E01553 (January 2000) --- This USGS elevation model showing increasing elevation as increasing brightness is included here for comparison purposes with the high-resolution topographic elevation map image in E01554. Both images depict the San Bernadino and San Gabriel Mountains in California, north of Los Angeles.

Aggregation increases prey survival time in group chase and escape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sicong; Jiang, Shijie; Jiang, Li; Li, Geng; Han, Zhangang

2014-08-01

Recently developed chase-and-escape models have addressed a fascinating pursuit-and-evasion problem that may have both theoretical significance and potential applications. We introduce three aggregation strategies for the prey in a group chase model on a lattice. Simulation results show that aggregation dramatically increases the group survival time, even allowing immortal prey. The average survival time τ and the aggregation probability P have a power-law dependence of \\tau \\sim {{(1-P)}^{-1}} for P\\in [0.9,0.997]. With increasing numbers of predators, there is still a phase transition. When the number of predators is less than the critical point value, the prey group survival time increases significantly.

An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification

DOE PAGES

DeAngelis, Anthony M.; Qu, Xin; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2015-12-09

We report that intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a key dimension of climate change, with substantial impacts on human and natural systems. A basic measure of hydrologic cycle intensification is the increase in global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming, which varies by a factor of three in current-generation climate models (about 1–3 per cent per kelvin). Part of the uncertainty may originate from atmosphere–radiation interactions. As the climate warms, increases in shortwave absorption from atmospheric moistening will suppress the precipitation increase. This occurs through a reduction of the latent heating increase required to maintain a balanced atmospheric energy budget.more » Using an ensemble of climate models, here we show that such models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to variations in atmospheric water vapour, leading to an underestimation in the shortwave absorption increase and an overestimation in the precipitation increase. This sensitivity also varies considerably among models due to differences in radiative transfer parameterizations, explaining a substantial portion of model spread in the precipitation response. Consequently, attaining accurate shortwave absorption responses through improvements to the radiative transfer schemes could reduce the spread in the predicted global precipitation increase per degree warming for the end of the twenty-first century by about 35 per cent, and reduce the estimated ensemble-mean increase in this quantity by almost 40 per cent.« less

Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simão Ferreira, C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Barone, M.; Roscher, B.; Deglaire, P.; Arduin, I.

2014-06-01

Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multiple streamtube model, a double-multiple streamtube model, the actuator cylinder model, a 2D potential flow panel model, a 3D unsteady lifting line model, and a 2D conformal mapping unsteady vortex model. The comparison covers rotor configurations with two NACA0015 blades, for several tip speed ratios, rotor solidity and fixed pitch angle, included heavily loaded rotors, in inviscid flow. The results show that the streamtube models are inaccurate, and that correct predictions of rotor power and rotor thrust are an effect of error cancellation which only occurs at specific configurations. The other four models, which explicitly model the wake as a system of vorticity, show mostly differences due to the instantaneous or time averaged formulation of the loading and flow, for which further research is needed.

A cloud-resolving model study of aerosol-cloud correlation in a pristine maritime environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishant, Nidhi; Sherwood, Steven C.

2017-06-01

In convective clouds, satellite-observed deepening or increased amount of clouds with increasing aerosol concentration has been reported and is sometimes interpreted as aerosol-induced invigoration of the clouds. However, such correlations can be affected by meteorological factors that affect both aerosol and clouds, as well as observational issues. In this study, we examine the behavior in a 660 × 660 km2 region of the South Pacific during June 2007, previously found by Koren et al. (2014) to show strong correlation between cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, and aerosols, using a cloud-resolving model with meteorological boundary conditions specified from a reanalysis. The model assumes constant aerosol loading, yet reproduces vigorous clouds at times of high real-world aerosol concentrations. Days with high- and low-aerosol loading exhibit deep-convective and shallow clouds, respectively, in both observations and the simulation. Synoptic analysis shows that vigorous clouds occur at times of strong surface troughs, which are associated with high winds and advection of boundary layer air from the Southern Ocean where sea-salt aerosol is abundant, thus accounting for the high correlation. Our model results show that aerosol-cloud relationships can be explained by coexisting but independent wind-aerosol and wind-cloud relationships and that no cloud condensation nuclei effect is required.

Open circuit voltage durability study and model of catalyst coated membranes at different humidification levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Sumit; Fowler, Michael W.; Simon, Leonardo C.; Abouatallah, Rami; Beydokhti, Natasha

Fuel cell material durability is an area of extensive research today. Chemical degradation of the ionomer membrane is one important degradation mechanism leading to overall failure of fuel cells. This study examined the effects of relative humidity on the chemical degradation of the membrane during open circuit voltage testing. Five Gore™ PRIMEA ® series 5510 catalyst coated membranes were degraded at 100%, 75%, 50%, and 20% RH. Open circuit potential and cumulative fluoride release were monitored over time. Additionally scanning electron microscopy images were taken at end of the test. The results showed that with decreasing RH fluoride release rate increased as did performance degradation. This was attributed to an increase in gas crossover with a decrease in RH. Further, it is also shown that interruptions in testing may heavily influence cumulative fluoride release measurements where frequent stoppages in testing will cause fluoride release to be underestimated. SEM analysis shows that degradation occurred in the ionomer layer close to the cathode catalyst. A chemical degradation model of the ionomer membrane was used to model the results. The model was able to predict fluoride release trends, including the effects of interruptions, showing that changes in gas crossover with RH could explain the experimental results.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Influence of borneol and muscone on geniposide transport through MDCK and MDCK-MDR1 cells as blood-brain barrier in vitro model.

PubMed

Chen, Zhen-Zhen; Lu, Yang; Du, Shou-Ying; Shang, Ke-Xin; Cai, Cheng-Bo

2013-11-01

The objective of this study was (1) to characterize geniposide transport through MDCK and MDCK-MDR1 cell lines to confirm its transport mechanism and (2) to evaluate the effect of borneol and muscone as enhancers of geniposide transport in the BBB models so as to explore the enhancement mechanism. Transport studies of geniposide were performed in both directions, from apical to basolateral and from basolateral to apical sides. Drug concentrations were analyzed by HPLC. Geniposide showed relatively poor absorption in MDCK and MDCK-MDR1 cells, apparent permeability coefficients ranging from 0.323×10(-6) to 0.422×10(-6) cm/s. The in vitro experiments showed that geniposide transport in both directions was not concentration dependent and saturable, indicating purely passive diffusion. The efflux ratio of geniposide was less than 2 in the two cell models, which suggested that geniposide was not P-gp substrates. Geniposide transport in both directions significantly increased when co-administrated with increasing concentrations of borneol and muscone. Actin staining results indicated that borneol and muscone increased geniposide transport in the BBB models may attribute to disassembly effect on tight junction integrity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a model describing the inhibitory effect of selected preservatives on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in a meat model system.

PubMed

Dussault, Dominic; Vu, Khanh Dang; Lacroix, Monique

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of seven independent factors consisting of sodium nitrite, pH, sodium chloride, sodium acetate, sodium lactate syrup, calcium propionate and a blend of nisin and hop alpha acids on the growth rate of Listeria monocytogenes in ham as a model of ready-to-eat (RTE) meat products. A central composite consisted of seven factors mentioned above was designed and the response surface methodology was applied for creating a mathematic model to predict the growth rate of L. monocytogenes in RTE meat products. Six parameters showed a significant (P ≤ 0.1) influence on the growth rate of L. monocytogenes. Only the blend of nisin and hop alpha acids did not show any significant effect (P > 0.1) in the concentrations used in this study. Increasing concentration of sodium chloride, sodium nitrite, sodium acetate, potassium lactate and calcium propionate in meat reduced bacterial growth rate while increasing pH in meat increased the growth rate of L. monocytogenes. The current mathematical equation will be an important tool in order to reduce the required number of challenge studies performed in order to ensure a safe food product. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microwave blanching and drying characteristics of Centella asiatica (L.) urban leaves using tray and heat pump-assisted dehumidified drying.

PubMed

Trirattanapikul, W; Phoungchandang, S

2014-12-01

The appropriate stage of maturity of Centella asiatica (L.) Urban leaves was investigated. Mature leaves with large diameter contained high total phenolics and % inhibition. Microwave blanching for 30 s retained the highest total phenolics and the microwave blanching for 30 s and 45 s retained the highest % inhibition. Modified Henderson and Modified Chung-Pfost models showed the best fit to both fresh and blanched leaves for equilibrium moisture content, Xe = f(RHe, T) and equilibrium relative humidity, RHe = f(Xe, T), respectively. The Modified Page model was the most effective model in describing the leaf drying. All drying was in the falling rate period. The drying constant was related to drying air temperature using the Arrhenius model. Effective moisture diffusivities increased with increasing temperature and blanching treatments as well as dehumidification by heat pump-assisted dehumidified dryer. The heat pump-assited dehumidified drying incorporated by the microwave blanching could reduce the drying time at 40 °C by 31.2 % and increase % inhibition by 6.1 %. Quality evaluation by total phenolics, % inhibition and rehydration ratio showed the best quality for C. asiatica leaves pretreated by microwave blanching and dried at 40 °C in heat pump-assisted dehumidified dryer.

Effects of low-level chronic irradiation on radiosensitivity of mammals: modeling and experimental studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.; Yonezawa, M.

Effects of low dose rate chronic irradiation on radiosensitivity of mammals mice are studied by experimental and modeling methods Own and reference experiments show that priming chronic low-level short-term and long-term exposures to radiation induce respectively elevated radiosensitivity and lowered radiosensitivity radioresistance in mice The manifestation of these radiosensitization and radioprotection effects are respectively increased and decreased mortality of preirradiated specimens after challenge acute irradiation in comparison with those for previously unexposed ones Taking into account that the reason of the animal death in the experiments was the hematopoietic syndrome the biophysical models of the critical body system hematopoiesis are used to simulate the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lines in mice exposed to challenge acute irradiation following the chronic one Juxtaposition of the modeling results obtained and the relevant experimental data shows that the radiosensitization effect of chronic low-level short-term less than 1 month preirradiation on mice is due to increased radiosensitivity of lymphopoietic granulocytopoietic and erythropoietic systems accompanied by increased or close to the normal level radiosensitivity of thrombocytopoietic system which are induced by the above-indicated exposure In turn the radioprotection effect of chronic low-level long-term more than 1 month preirradiation on mice is caused by decreased radiosensitivity radioresistance of the granulocytopoietic system which

Comparison of APSIM and DNDC simulations of nitrogen transformations and N2O emissions.

PubMed

Vogeler, I; Giltrap, D; Cichota, R

2013-11-01

Various models have been developed to better understand nitrogen (N) cycling in soils, which is governed by a complex interaction of physical, chemical and biological factors. Two process-based models, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) and DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC), were used to simulate nitrification, denitrification and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils following N input from either fertiliser or excreta deposition. The effect of environmental conditions on N transformations as simulated by the two different models was compared. Temperature had a larger effect in APSIM on nitrification, whereas in DNDC, water content produced a larger response. In contrast, simulated denitrification showed a larger response to temperature and also organic carbon content in DNDC. And while denitrification in DNDC is triggered by rainfall ≥5mm/h, in APSIM, the driving factor is soil water content, with a trigger point at water content at field capacity. The two models also showed different responses to N load, with nearly linearly increasing N2O emission rates with N load simulated by DNDC, and a lower rate by APSIM. Increasing rainfall intensity decreased APSIM-simulated N2O emissions but increased those simulated by DNDC. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Communication: Modeling of concentration dependent water diffusivity in ionic solutions: Role of intermolecular charge transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao, Yi; Berkowitz, Max L., E-mail: maxb@unc.edu, E-mail: ykanai@unc.edu; Kanai, Yosuke, E-mail: maxb@unc.edu, E-mail: ykanai@unc.edu

2015-12-28

The translational diffusivity of water in solutions of alkali halide salts depends on the identity of ions, exhibiting dramatically different behavior even in solutions of similar salts of NaCl and KCl. The water diffusion coefficient decreases as the salt concentration increases in NaCl. Yet, in KCl solution, it slightly increases and remains above bulk value as salt concentration increases. Previous classical molecular dynamics simulations have failed to describe this important behavior even when polarizable models were used. Here, we show that inclusion of dynamical charge transfer among water molecules produces results in a quantitative agreement with experiments. Our results indicatemore » that the concentration-dependent diffusivity reflects the importance of many-body effects among the water molecules in aqueous ionic solutions. Comparison with quantum mechanical calculations shows that a heterogeneous and extended distribution of charges on water molecules around the ions due to ion-water and also water-water charge transfer plays a very important role in controlling water diffusivity. Explicit inclusion of the charge transfer allows us to model accurately the difference in the concentration-dependent water diffusivity between Na{sup +} and K{sup +} ions in simulations, and it is likely to impact modeling of a wide range of systems for medical and technological applications.« less

Fibroblast growth factor 2 is an essential cardioprotective factor in a closed‐chest model of cardiac ischemia‐reperfusion injury

PubMed Central

House, Stacey L.; Wang, Joy; Castro, Angela M.; Weinheimer, Carla; Kovacs, Attila; Ornitz, David M.

2015-01-01

Abstract Fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) is cardioprotective in in vivo models of myocardial infarction; however, whether FGF2 has a protective role in in vivo ischemia‐reperfusion (IR) injury, a model that more closely mimics acute myocardial infarction in humans, is not known. To assess the cardioprotective efficacy of endogenous FGF2, mice lacking a functional Fgf2 gene (Fgf2−/−) and wild‐type controls were subjected to closed‐chest regional cardiac IR injury (90 min ischemia, 7 days reperfusion). Fgf2−/− mice had significantly increased myocardial infarct size and significantly worsened cardiac function compared to wild‐type controls at both 1 and 7 days post‐IR injury. Pathophysiological analysis showed that at 1 day after IR injury Fgf2−/− mice have worsened cardiac strain patterns and increased myocardial cell death. Furthermore, at 7 days post‐IR injury, Fgf2−/− mice showed a significantly reduced cardiac hypertrophic response, decreased cardiac vessel density, and increased vessel diameter in the peri‐infarct area compared to wild‐type controls. These data reveal both acute cardioprotective and a longer term proangiogenic potential of endogenous FGF2 in a clinically relevant, in vivo, closed‐chest regional cardiac IR injury model that mimics acute myocardial infarction. PMID:25626875

An evidence-based framework for predicting the impact of differing autotroph-heterotroph thermal sensitivities on consumer–prey dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Zhou; Zhang, Lu; Zhu, Xuexia; Wang, Jun; Montagnes, David J S

2016-01-01

Increased temperature accelerates vital rates, influencing microbial population and wider ecosystem dynamics, for example, the predicted increases in cyanobacterial blooms associated with global warming. However, heterotrophic and mixotrophic protists, which are dominant grazers of microalgae, may be more thermally sensitive than autotrophs, and thus prey could be suppressed as temperature rises. Theoretical and meta-analyses have begun to address this issue, but an appropriate framework linking experimental data with theory is lacking. Using ecophysiological data to develop a novel model structure, we provide the first validation of this thermal sensitivity hypothesis: increased temperature improves the consumer's ability to control the autotrophic prey. Specifically, the model accounts for temperature effects on auto- and mixotrophs and ingestion, growth and mortality rates, using an ecologically and economically important system (cyanobacteria grazed by a mixotrophic flagellate). Once established, we show the model to be a good predictor of temperature impacts on consumer–prey dynamics by comparing simulations with microcosm observations. Then, through simulations, we indicate our conclusions remain valid, even with large changes in bottom-up factors (prey growth and carrying capacity). In conclusion, we show that rising temperature could, counterintuitively, reduce the propensity for microalgal blooms to occur and, critically, provide a novel model framework for needed, continued assessment. PMID:26684731

Efficient Bayesian mixed model analysis increases association power in large cohorts

PubMed Central

Loh, Po-Ru; Tucker, George; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan K; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Finucane, Hilary K; Salem, Rany M; Chasman, Daniel I; Ridker, Paul M; Neale, Benjamin M; Berger, Bonnie; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L

2014-01-01

Linear mixed models are a powerful statistical tool for identifying genetic associations and avoiding confounding. However, existing methods are computationally intractable in large cohorts, and may not optimize power. All existing methods require time cost O(MN2) (where N = #samples and M = #SNPs) and implicitly assume an infinitesimal genetic architecture in which effect sizes are normally distributed, which can limit power. Here, we present a far more efficient mixed model association method, BOLT-LMM, which requires only a small number of O(MN)-time iterations and increases power by modeling more realistic, non-infinitesimal genetic architectures via a Bayesian mixture prior on marker effect sizes. We applied BOLT-LMM to nine quantitative traits in 23,294 samples from the Women’s Genome Health Study (WGHS) and observed significant increases in power, consistent with simulations. Theory and simulations show that the boost in power increases with cohort size, making BOLT-LMM appealing for GWAS in large cohorts. PMID:25642633

Modeling of the thermal physical process and study on the reliability of linear energy density for selective laser melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Zhaowei; Yin, Ming; Dong, Guanhua; Mei, Xiaoqin; Yin, Guofu

2018-06-01

A finite element model considering volume shrinkage with powder-to-dense process of powder layer in selective laser melting (SLM) is established. Comparison between models that consider and do not consider volume shrinkage or powder-to-dense process is carried out. Further, parametric analysis of laser power and scan speed is conducted and the reliability of linear energy density as a design parameter is investigated. The results show that the established model is an effective method and has better accuracy allowing for the temperature distribution, and the length and depth of molten pool. The maximum temperature is more sensitive to laser power than scan speed. The maximum heating rate and cooling rate increase with increasing scan speed at constant laser power and increase with increasing laser power at constant scan speed as well. The simulation results and experimental result reveal that linear energy density is not always reliable using as a design parameter in the SLM.

Anatomical knowledge gain through a clay-modeling exercise compared to live and video observations.

PubMed

Kooloos, Jan G M; Schepens-Franke, Annelieke N; Bergman, Esther M; Donders, Rogier A R T; Vorstenbosch, Marc A T M

2014-01-01

Clay modeling is increasingly used as a teaching method other than dissection. The haptic experience during clay modeling is supposed to correspond to the learning effect of manipulations during exercises in the dissection room involving tissues and organs. We questioned this assumption in two pretest-post-test experiments. In these experiments, the learning effects of clay modeling were compared to either live observations (Experiment I) or video observations (Experiment II) of the clay-modeling exercise. The effects of learning were measured with multiple choice questions, extended matching questions, and recognition of structures on illustrations of cross-sections. Analysis of covariance with pretest scores as the covariate was used to elaborate the results. Experiment I showed a significantly higher post-test score for the observers, whereas Experiment II showed a significantly higher post-test score for the clay modelers. This study shows that (1) students who perform clay-modeling exercises show less gain in anatomical knowledge than students who attentively observe the same exercise being carried out and (2) performing a clay-modeling exercise is better in anatomical knowledge gain compared to the study of a video of the recorded exercise. The most important learning effect seems to be the engagement in the exercise, focusing attention and stimulating time on task. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

Modeling initial contact dynamics during ambulation with dynamic simulation.

PubMed

Meyer, Andrew R; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

2007-04-01

Ankle-foot orthoses are frequently used interventions to correct pathological gait. Their effects on the kinematics and kinetics of the proximal joints are of great interest when prescribing ankle-foot orthoses to specific patient groups. Mathematical Dynamic Model (MADYMO) is developed to simulate motor vehicle crash situations and analyze tissue injuries of the occupants based multibody dynamic theories. Joint kinetics output from an inverse model were perturbed and input to the forward model to examine the effects of changes in the internal sagittal ankle moment on knee and hip kinematics following heel strike. Increasing the internal ankle moment (augmentation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus contraction) produced less pronounced changes in kinematic results at the hip, knee and ankle than decreasing the moment (attenuation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus relaxation). Altering the internal ankle moment produced two distinctly different kinematic curve morphologies at the hip. Decreased internal ankle moments increased hip flexion, peaking at roughly 8% of the gait cycle. Increasing internal ankle moments decreased hip flexion to a lesser degree, and approached normal at the same point in the gait cycle. Increasing the internal ankle moment produced relatively small, well-behaved extension-biased kinematic results at the knee. Decreasing the internal ankle moment produced more substantial changes in knee kinematics towards flexion that increased with perturbation magnitude. Curve morphologies were similar to those at the hip. Immediately following heel strike, kinematic results at the ankle showed movement in the direction of the internal moment perturbation. Increased internal moments resulted in kinematic patterns that rapidly approach normal after initial differences. When the internal ankle moment was decreased, differences from normal were much greater and did not rapidly decrease. This study shows that MADYMO can be successfully applied to accomplish forward dynamic simulations, given kinetic inputs. Future applications include predicting muscle forces and decomposing external kinetics.

Restorative dentistry productivity of senior students engaged in comprehensive care.

PubMed

Blalock, John S; Callan, Richard S; Lazarchik, David A; Frank Caughman, W; Looney, Stephen

2012-12-01

In dental education, various clinical delivery models are used to educate dental students. The quantitative and qualitative measures used to assess the outcomes of these models are varied. Georgia Health Sciences University College of Dental Medicine has adopted a version of a general dentistry comprehensive care dental education hybrid model. Outcome assessments were developed to evaluate the effectiveness of this delivery model. The aim of this study was to compare the number of restorative procedures performed by senior dental students under a discipline-based model versus senior student productivity engaged in comprehensive care as part of a hybrid model. The rate of senior students' productivity in performing various restorative procedures was tracked over four years, and a comparison was made. In the first two years, the seniors operated in a discipline-based model, while in the last two years the seniors operated in a comprehensive care hybrid model. The results showed that there was a significant increase in productivity by the students in terms of direct and indirect restorations. This increase in productivity may indicate that the comprehensive care model may be a more productive model, thereby enhancing clinical experiences for the students, improving operating efficiency for the schools, and ultimately increasing clinical income.

Vertical profiles of nitrous acid in the nocturnal urban atmosphere of Houston, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, K. W.; Oh, H.-J.; Lefer, B. L.; Rappenglück, B.; Stutz, J.

2011-04-01

Nitrous acid (HONO) often plays an important role in tropospheric photochemistry as a major precursor of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in early morning hours and potentially during the day. However, the processes leading to formation of HONO and its vertical distribution at night, which can have a considerable impact on daytime ozone formation, are currently poorly characterized by observations and models. Long-path differential optical absorption spectroscopy (LP-DOAS) measurements of HONO during the 2006 TexAQS II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP), near downtown Houston, TX, show nocturnal vertical profiles of HONO, with mixing ratios of up to 2.2 ppb near the surface and below 100 ppt aloft. Three nighttime periods of HONO, NO2 and O3 observations during TRAMP were used to perform model simulations of vertical mixing ratio profiles. By adjusting vertical mixing and NOx emissions the modeled NO2 and O3 mixing ratios showed very good agreement with the observations. Using a simple conversion of NO2 to HONO on the ground, direct HONO emissions, as well as HONO loss at the ground and on aerosol, the observed HONO profiles were reproduced by the model for 1-2 and 7-8 September in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). The unobserved increase of HONO to NO2 ratio (HONO/NO2) with altitude that was simulated by the initial model runs was found to be due to HONO uptake being too small on aerosol and too large on the ground. Refined model runs, with adjusted HONO uptake coefficients, showed much better agreement of HONO and HONO/NO2 for two typical nights, except during morning rush hour, when other HONO formation pathways are most likely active. One of the nights analyzed showed an increase of HONO mixing ratios together with decreasing NO2 mixing ratios that the model was unable to reproduce, most likely due to the impact of weak precipitation during this night. HONO formation and removal rates averaged over the lowest 300 m of the atmosphere showed that NO2 to HONO conversion on the ground was the dominant source of HONO, followed by traffic emission. Aerosol did not play an important role in HONO formation. Although ground deposition was also a major removal pathway of HONO, net HONO production at the ground was the main source of HONO in our model studies. Sensitivity studies showed that in the stable NBL, net HONO production at the ground tends to increase with faster vertical mixing and stronger NOx emission. Vertical transport was found to be the dominant source of HONO aloft.

Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei

Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost ofmore » syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.« less

Comparison of 5 Different Rat Models to Establish a Standard Animal Model for Research Into Interstitial Cystitis.

PubMed

Song, Phil Hyun; Chun, So Young; Chung, Jae-Wook; Kim, Yeon Yong; Lee, Hyo Jung; Lee, Jun Nyung; Ha, Yun-Sok; Yoo, Eun Sang; Kwon, Tae Gyun; Kim, Jeongshik; Kim, Dae Hwan; Kim, Bum Soo

2017-09-01

We evaluated 5 different rat models using different agents in order to establish a standard animal model for interstitial cystitis (IC) in terms of the functional and pathologic characteristics of the bladder. Five IC models were generated in 8-week-old female Sprague-Dawley rats via transurethral instillation of 0.1M hydrogen chloride (HCl) or 3% acetic acid (AA), intraperitoneal injection of cyclophosphamide (CYP) or lipopolysaccharide (LPS), or subcutaneous injection of uroplakin II (UPK2). After generating the IC models, conscious cystometry was performed on days 3, 7, and 14. All rats were euthanized on day 14 and their bladders were obtained for histological and pro-inflammatory-related gene expression analysis. In the cystometric analysis, all experimental groups showed significantly decreased intercontraction intervals compared with the control group on day 3, but only the LPS and UPK groups maintained significantly shorter intercontraction intervals than the control group on day 14. The histological analysis revealed that areas with severe urothelial erosion (HCl, AA, and UPK) and hyperplasia (CYP and LPS), particularly in the UPK-treated bladders, showed a markedly increased infiltration of toluidine blue-stained mast cells and increased tissue fibrosis. In addition, significantly elevated expression of interleukin-1b, interleukin-6, myeloperoxidase, monocyte chemotactic protein 1, and Toll-like receptors 2 and 4 was observed in the UPK group compared to the other groups. Among the 5 different agents, the injection of UPK generated the most effective IC animal model, showing consequent urothelial barrier loss, inflammatory reaction, tissue fibrosis stimulation, and persistent hyperactive bladder.

Towards a Universal Calving Law: Modeling Ice Shelves Using Damage Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitcomb, M.; Bassis, J. N.; Price, S. F.; Lipscomb, W. H.

2017-12-01

Modeling iceberg calving from ice shelves and ice tongues is a particularly difficult problem in glaciology because of the wide range of observed calving rates. Ice shelves naturally calve large tabular icebergs at infrequent intervals, but may instead calve smaller bergs regularly or disintegrate due to hydrofracturing in warmer conditions. Any complete theory of iceberg calving in ice shelves must be able to generate realistic calving rate values depending on the magnitudes of the external forcings. Here we show that a simple damage evolution law, which represents crevasse distributions as a continuum field, produces reasonable estimates of ice shelf calving rates when added to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Our damage formulation is based on a linear stability analysis and depends upon the bulk stress and strain rate in the ice shelf, as well as the surface and basal melt rates. The basal melt parameter in our model enhances crevasse growth near the ice shelf terminus, leading to an increased iceberg production rate. This implies that increasing ocean temperatures underneath ice shelves will drive ice shelf retreat, as has been observed in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. We show that our model predicts broadly correct calving rates for ice tongues ranging in length from 10 km (Erebus) to over 100 km (Drygalski), by matching the computed steady state lengths to observations. In addition, we apply the model to idealized Antarctic ice shelves and show that we can also predict realistic ice shelf extents. Our damage mechanics model provides a promising, computationally efficient way to compute calving fluxes and links ice shelf stability to climate forcing.

Early Changes of Articular Cartilage and Subchondral Bone in The DMM Mouse Model of Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Fang, Hang; Huang, Lisi; Welch, Ian; Norley, Chris; Holdsworth, David W; Beier, Frank; Cai, Daozhang

2018-02-12

To examine the early changes of articular cartilage and subchondral bone in the DMM mouse model of osteoarthritis, mice were subjected to DMM or SHAM surgery and sacrificed at 2-, 5- and 10-week post-surgery. Catwalk gait analyses, Micro-Computed Tomography, Toluidine Blue, Picrosirius Red and Tartrate-Resistant Acid Phosphatase (TRAP) staining were used to investigate gait patterns, joint morphology, subchondral bone, cartilage, collagen organization and osteoclasts activity, respectively. Results showed OA progressed over 10-week time-course. Gait disparity occurred only at 10-week post-surgery. Osteophyte formed at 2-week post-surgery. BMDs of DMM showed no statistical differences comparing to SHAM at 2 weeks, but BV/TV is much higher in DMM mice. Increased BMD was clearly found at 5- and 10-week post-surgery in DMM mice. TRAP staining showed increased osteoclast activity at the site of osteophyte formation of DMM joints at 5- and 10-week time points. These results showed that subchondral bone turnover might occurred earlier than 2 weeks in this mouse DMM model. Gait disparity only occurred at later stage of OA in DMM mice. Notably, patella dislocation could occur in some of the DMM mice and cause a different pattern of OA in affected knee.

Progressive Transitions from Algorithmic to Conceptual Understanding in Student Ability To Solve Chemistry Problems: A Lakatosian Interpretation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor

The main objective of this study is to construct models based on strategies students use to solve chemistry problems and to show that these models form sequences of progressive transitions similar to what Lakatos (1970) in the history of science refers to as progressive 'problemshifts' that increase the explanatory' heuristic power of the models.…

Sub-Scale Analysis of New Large Aircraft Pool Fire-Suppression

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

discrete ordinates radiation and single step Khan and Greeves soot model provided radiation and soot interaction. Agent spray dynamics were...Notable differences observed showed a modeled increase in the mockup surface heat-up rate as well as a modeled decreased rate of soot production...488 K SUPPRESSION STARTED  Large deviation between sensors due to sensor alignment challenges and asymmetric fuel surface ignition  Unremarkable

Cannabis exacerbates depressive symptoms in rat model induced by reserpine.

PubMed

Khadrawy, Yasser A; Sawie, Hussein G; Abdel-Salam, Omar M E; Hosny, Eman N

2017-05-01

Cannabis sativa is one of the most widely recreational drugs and its use is more prevalent among depressed patients. Some studies reported that Cannabis has antidepressant effects while others showed increased depressive symptoms in Cannabis users. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the effect of Cannabis extract on the depressive-like rats. Twenty four rats were divided into: control, rat model of depression induced by reserpine and depressive-like rats treated with Cannabis sativa extract (10mg/kg expressed as Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol). The depressive-like rats showed a severe decrease in motor activity as assessed by open field test (OFT). This was accompanied by a decrease in monoamine levels and a significant increase in acetylcholinesterase activity in the cortex and hippocampus. Na + ,K + -ATPase activity increased in the cortex and decreased in the hippocampus of rat model. In addition, a state of oxidative stress was evident in the two brain regions. This was indicated from the significant increase in the levels of lipid peroxidation and nitric oxide. No signs of improvement were observed in the behavioral and neurochemical analyses in the depressive-like rats treated with Cannabis extract. Furthermore, Cannabis extract exacerbated the lipid peroxidation in the cortex and hippocampus. According to the present findings, it could be concluded that Cannabis sativa aggravates the motor deficits and neurochemical changes induced in the cortex and hippocampus of rat model of depression. Therefore, the obtained results could explain the reported increase in the depressive symptoms and memory impairment among Cannabis users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-01-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.

A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors

PubMed Central

Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

2016-01-01

The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails’ operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems. PMID:27676179

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitationmore » over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.« less

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith

2018-01-01

The relative impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and stratospheric ozone depletion on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period are quantified using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model. The experiment compares controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-�ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model, in which either GHGs or ozone depleting substances, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and ozone-depleting substances have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease, but GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. It is also found that both the acceleration of the diabatic circulation and the decrease of the mean age difference between downwelling and upwelling regions are mainly caused by GHG forcing. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: (1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup that inhibits young midlatitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex, and (2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

Factor structure of the happiness-increasing strategies scales (H-ISS): activities and coping strategies in relation to positive and negative affect.

PubMed

Al Nima, Ali; Garcia, Danilo

2015-01-01

Background. Previous research (Tkach & Lyubomirsky, 2006) shows that there are eight general happiness-increasing strategies: social affiliation, partying, mental control, goal pursuit, passive leisure, active leisure, religion, and direct attempts. The present study investigates the factor structure of the happiness-increasing strategies scales (H-ISS) and their relationship to positive and negative affect. Method. The present study used participants' (N = 1,050 and age mean = 34.21 sd = 12.73) responses to the H-ISS in structural equation modeling analyses. Affect was measured using the Positive Affect Negative Affect Schedule. Results. After small modifications we obtained a good model that contains the original eight factors/scales. Moreover, we found that women tend to use social affiliation, mental control, passive leisure, religion, and direct attempts more than men, while men preferred to engage in partying and clubbing more than women. The H-ISS explained significantly the variance of positive affect (R (2) = .41) and the variance of negative affect (R (2) = .27). Conclusions. Our study is an addition to previous research showing that the factor structure of the happiness-increasing strategies is valid and reliable. However, due to the model fitting issues that arise in the present study, we give some suggestions for improving the instrument.

Synergy of climate change and local pressures on saltwater intrusion in heterogeneous coastal aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abou Najm, M.; Safi, A.; El-Fadel, M.; Doummar, J.; Alameddine, I.

2016-12-01

The relative importance of climate change induced sea level rise on the salinization of a highly urbanized karstified coastal aquifers were compared with non-sustainable pumping. A 3D variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model was used to predict the displacement of the saltwater-freshwater interface in a pilot aquifer located along the Eastern Mediterranean. The results showed that the influence of sea level rise was marginal when compared with the encroachment of salinity associated with anthropogenic abstraction. Model predictions of salinity mass and volumetric displacement of the interface corresponding to a long-term monthly transient model showed that the saltwater intrusion dynamic is highly sensitive to change in the abstraction rates which were estimated based on combinations of water consumption rates and population growth rates. Salinity encroachment, however, appeared to be more sensitive to water consumption rates in comparison to population growth rates, where a 50% increase in the rate of former led to four times more intrusion as compared to an equivalent increase in population growth rate over 20 years. Coupling both increase in population growth and increased consumption rates had a synergistic effect that aggravated the intrusion beyond the sum of the individual impacts. Adaptation strategies targeting a decrease in groundwater exploitation proved to be effective in retarding the intrusion.

A thermo-elastoplastic model for soft rocks considering structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zuoyue; Zhang, Sheng; Teng, Jidong; Xiong, Yonglin

2017-11-01

In the fields of nuclear waste geological deposit, geothermy and deep mining, the effects of temperature on the mechanical behaviors of soft rocks cannot be neglected. Experimental data in the literature also showed that the structure of soft rocks cannot be ignored. Based on the superloading yield surface and the concept of temperature-deduced equivalent stress, a thermo-elastoplastic model for soft rocks is proposed considering the structure. Compared to the superloading yield surface, only one parameter is added, i.e. the linear thermal expansion coefficient. The predicted results and the comparisons with experimental data in the literature show that the proposed model is capable of simultaneously describing heat increase and heat decrease of soft rocks. A stronger initial structure leads to a greater strength of the soft rocks. Heat increase and heat decrease can be converted between each other due to the change of the initial structure of soft rocks. Furthermore, regardless of the heat increase or heat decrease, a larger linear thermal expansion coefficient or a greater temperature always leads to a much rapider degradation of the structure. The degradation trend will be more obvious for the coupled greater values of linear thermal expansion coefficient and temperature. Lastly, compared to heat decrease, the structure will degrade more easily in the case of heat increase.

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.

2017-12-01

The strength of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in a changing climate has been extensively studied, but the relative importance of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving the BDC changes remains uncertain. This study separates the impacts of GHG and stratospheric ozone forcings on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM). The experiment compares a set of controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the GEOS CCM, in which either GHGs, or stratospheric ozone, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and stratospheric ozone have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease. It is also found that GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: 1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup, that inhibits young mid-latitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex; and 2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling, that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

Assessing the Increase in Specific Surface Area for Electrospun Fibrous Network due to Pore Induction.

PubMed

Katsogiannis, Konstantinos Alexandros G; Vladisavljević, Goran T; Georgiadou, Stella; Rahmani, Ramin

2016-10-26

The effect of pore induction on increasing electrospun fibrous network specific surface area was investigated in this study. Theoretical models based on the available surface area of the fibrous network and exclusion of the surface area lost due to fiber-to-fiber contacts were developed. The models for calculation of the excluded area are based on Hertzian, Derjaguin-Muller-Toporov (DMT), and Johnson-Kendall-Roberts (JKR) contact models. Overall, the theoretical models correlated the network specific surface area to the material properties including density, surface tension, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, as well as network physical properties, such as density and geometrical characteristics including fiber radius, fiber aspect ratio and network thickness. Pore induction proved to increase the network specific surface area up to 52%, compared to the maximum surface area that could be achieved by nonporous fiber network with the same physical properties and geometrical characteristics. The model based on Johnson-Kendall-Roberts contact model describes accurately the fiber-to-fiber contact area under the experimental conditions used for pore generation. The experimental results and the theoretical model based on Johnson-Kendall-Roberts contact model show that the increase in network surface area due to pore induction can reach to up to 58%.

Improving optimal control of grid-connected lithium-ion batteries through more accurate battery and degradation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reniers, Jorn M.; Mulder, Grietus; Ober-Blöbaum, Sina; Howey, David A.

2018-03-01

The increased deployment of intermittent renewable energy generators opens up opportunities for grid-connected energy storage. Batteries offer significant flexibility but are relatively expensive at present. Battery lifetime is a key factor in the business case, and it depends on usage, but most techno-economic analyses do not account for this. For the first time, this paper quantifies the annual benefits of grid-connected batteries including realistic physical dynamics and nonlinear electrochemical degradation. Three lithium-ion battery models of increasing realism are formulated, and the predicted degradation of each is compared with a large-scale experimental degradation data set (Mat4Bat). A respective improvement in RMS capacity prediction error from 11% to 5% is found by increasing the model accuracy. The three models are then used within an optimal control algorithm to perform price arbitrage over one year, including degradation. Results show that the revenue can be increased substantially while degradation can be reduced by using more realistic models. The estimated best case profit using a sophisticated model is a 175% improvement compared with the simplest model. This illustrates that using a simplistic battery model in a techno-economic assessment of grid-connected batteries might substantially underestimate the business case and lead to erroneous conclusions.

Are persistent early onset child conduct problems predicted by the trajectories and initial levels of discipline practices?

PubMed

Lorber, Michael F; Slep, Amy M Smith

2015-08-01

In the present investigation we focused on 2 broad sets of questions: Do parental overreactivity, laxness, and corporal punishment show evidence of normative change in early to middle childhood? Are persistently elevated child conduct problems (CPs) associated with deviations from normative changes in, as well as high initial levels of, discipline practices? Four hundred fifty-three couples with 3- to 7-year-old children were recruited via random digit dialing and studied at 3 annual assessments. Parents completed questionnaire measures of all study constructs. Normative declines were found in maternal corporal punishment and laxness. Maternal overreactivity showed a normative increase. For fathers, only corporal punishment showed evidence of a normative decline. The declines in mothers' corporal punishment and laxness, and in fathers' corporal punishment, exhibited little variability. In contrast, the trajectories of maternal overreactivity were significantly variable. High-increasing CPs were more common than low-stable CPs in families with greater increases in maternal overreactivity. High-increasing CPs were also more common in families with greater initial maternal overreactivity and corporal punishment. Yet in no case did discipline practices significantly distinguish children on high-increasing versus high-decreasing CPs trajectories. In tests of alternative models, child effects were found for all parenting variables, suggesting reciprocal causation. The findings are discussed relative to etiological models of CPs and implications for preventive intervention. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bull, Christopher Y. S.; Kiss, Andrew E.; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; England, Matthew H.; van Sebille, Erik

2017-12-01

The East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy-permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time-mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy-permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies.

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

2018-06-01

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

PubMed

Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

2011-06-01

Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

A new method for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts in dependence of cumulative GHG emission budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, Nadine; Hare, Bill

2010-05-01

Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact, there are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen et al. 2009, Matthews et al. 2009 and Zickfeld et al. 2009) which take a very comprehensive approach to quantifying the current uncertainties related to the question of what are the "allowed amounts" of global emissions given specific limits of global warming. Here, we present an extension of this budget approach allowing to focus on specific regional impacts. The method is based on probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation changes providing the input for available impact functions. Using the example of Greenland's surface mass balance (Gregory et al., 2006) we will demonstrate how the probability of specific impacts can be described in dependence of global GHG emission budgets taking into account the uncertainty of global mean temperature projections as well as uncertainties of regional climate patterns varying from AOGCM to AOGCM. The method utilizes the AOGCM based linear relation between global mean temperature changes and regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. It allows to handle the variations of regional climate projections from AR4 AOGCM runs independent of the uncertainties of global mean temperature change that are estimated by a simple climate model (Meinshausen et al., 2009). While the linearity of this link function is already established for temperature and to a lesser degree (depending on the region) also for precipitation (Santer et al. 1990; Mitchell et al. 1999; Giorgi et al., 2008; Solomon et al., 2009), we especially focus on the quantification of the uncertainty (in particularly the inter-AOGCM variations) of the associated scaling coefficients. Our approach is based on a linear mixed effects model (e.g. Bates and Pinheiro, 2001). In comparison to other scaling approaches we do not fit separate models for the temperature and precipitation data but we apply a two-dimensional model, i.e., we explicitly account for the fact that models (scenarios or runs) showing an especially high temperature increase may also show high precipitation increases or vice versa. Coupling the two-dimensional distribution of the scaling coefficients with the uncertainty distributions of global mean temperature change given different GHG emission trajectories finally provides time series of two dimensional uncertainty distributions of regional changes in temperature and precipitation, where both components might be correlated. These samples provide the input for regional specific impact functions. In case of Greenland we use a function by Gregory et al., 2006 that allows us to calculate changes in sea level rise due to changes in Greenland's surface mass balance in dependence of regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. The precipitation signal turns out to be relatively strong for Greenland with AOGCMs consistently showing increasing precipitation with increasing global mean temperature. In addition, temperature and precipitation increases turned out to be highly correlated for Greenland: Models showing an especially high temperature increase also show high precipitation increases reflected by a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the inter-model variations of both components of the scaling coefficients. Taking these correlations into account is especially important because the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet critically depends on the interaction of the temperature and precipitation component of climate change: Increasing precipitation may at least partly balance the loss due to increasing temperatures.