An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Hoffman, Matthew J; Bonin, Jennifer A; Howat, Ian M; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P; Evans, Katherine J; Kennedy, Joseph H; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G; Tuminaro, Raymond S; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Nowicki, Sophie M J

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

The OSSE Framework at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, I.; Prive, N.; McCarty, W.; Errico, R. M.; Gelaro, R.

2017-12-01

This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

The OSSE Framework at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Prive, Nikki; McCarty, Will; Errico, Ronald M.; Gelaro, Ron

2017-01-01

This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

An Overview of Atmospheric Composition OSSE Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

daSilva, Arlinda

2012-01-01

A model-based Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a framework for numerical experimentation in which observables are simulated from fields generated by an earth system model, including a parameterized description of observational error characteristics. Simulated observations can be used for sampling studies, quantifying errors in analysis or retrieval algorithms, and ultimately being a planning tool for designing new observing missions. While this framework has traditionally been used to assess the impact of observations on numerical weather prediction, it has a much broader applicability, in particular to aerosols and chemical constituents. In this talk we will give a general overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with focus on its emerging atmospheric composition component.

El Nino - La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak`s model and observed with satellite or in situ data. Part I: Model data comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perigaud C.; Dewitte, B.

The Zebiak and Cane model is used in its {open_quotes}uncoupled mode,{close_quotes} meaning that the oceanic model component is driven by the Florida State University (FSU) wind stress anomalies over 1980-93 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies, and these are used in the atmospheric model component to generate wind anomalies. Simulations are compared with data derived from FSU winds, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud convection, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer SST, Geosat sea level, 20{degrees}C isotherm depth derived from an expendable bathythermograph, and current velocities estimated from drifters or current-meter moorings. Forced by the simulated SST, the atmospheric model ismore » fairly successful in reproducing the observed westerlies during El Nino events. The model fails to simulate the easterlies during La Nina 1988. The simulated forcing of the atmosphere is in very poor agreement with the heating derived from cloud convection data. Similarly, the model is fairly successful in reproducing the warm anomalies during El Nino events. However, it fails to simulate the observed cold anomalies. Simulated variations of thermocline depth agree reasonably well with observations. The model simulates zonal current anomalies that are reversing at a dominant 9-month frequency. Projecting altimetric observations on Kelvin and Rossby waves provides an estimate of zonal current anomalies, which is consistent with the ones derived from drifters or from current meter moorings. Unlike the simulated ones, the observed zonal current anomalies reverse from eastward during El Nino events to westward during La Nina events. The simulated 9-month oscillations correspond to a resonant mode of the basin. They can be suppressed by cancelling the wave reflection at the boundaries, or they can be attenuated by increasing the friction in the ocean model. 58 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Stephens, Philip; Wilson, Brian D.; Akopian, Vardan; Komjathy, Attila; Lijima, Byron A.

2013-01-01

ISOGAME is designed and developed to assess quantitatively the impact of new observation systems on the capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. With ISOGAME, one can perform observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs). A typical OSSE using ISOGAME would involve: (1) simulating various ionospheric conditions on global scales; (2) simulating ionospheric measurements made from a constellation of low-Earth-orbiters (LEOs), particularly Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation data, and from ground-based global GNSS networks; (3) conducting ionospheric data assimilation experiments with the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM); and (4) analyzing modeling results with visualization tools. ISOGAME can provide quantitative assessment of the accuracy of assimilative modeling with the interested observation system. Other observation systems besides those based on GNSS are also possible to analyze. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the GAIM, including a 4D first-principles ionospheric model and data assimilation modules, an Internal Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model that has been developed by international ionospheric research communities, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software. The core GAIM model used in ISOGAME is based on the GAIM++ code (written in C++) that includes a new high-fidelity geomagnetic field representation (multi-dipole). New visualization tools and analysis algorithms for the OSSEs are now part of ISOGAME.

Evaluating Mesoscale Simulations of the Coastal Flow Using Lidar Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floors, R.; Hahmann, A. N.; Peña, A.

2018-03-01

The atmospheric flow in the coastal zone is investigated using lidar and mast measurements and model simulations. Novel dual-Doppler scanning lidars were used to investigate the flow over a 7 km transect across the coast, and vertically profiling lidars were used to study the vertical wind profile at offshore and onshore positions. The Weather, Research and Forecasting model is set up in 12 different configurations using 2 planetary boundary layer schemes, 3 horizontal grid spacings and varied sources of land use, and initial and lower boundary conditions. All model simulations describe the observed mean wind profile well at different onshore and offshore locations from the surface up to 500 m. The simulated mean horizontal wind speed gradient across the shoreline is close to that observed, although all simulations show wind speeds that are slightly higher than those observed. Inland at the lowest observed height, the model has the largest deviations compared to the observations. Taylor diagrams show that using ERA-Interim data as boundary conditions improves the model skill scores. Simulations with 0.5 and 1 km horizontal grid spacing show poorer model performance compared to those with a 2 km spacing, partially because smaller resolved wave lengths degrade standard error metrics. Modeled and observed velocity spectra were compared and showed that simulations with the finest horizontal grid spacing resolved more high-frequency atmospheric motion.

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parksinson, Claire; Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2005-01-01

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Detonation initiation in a model of explosive: Comparative atomistic and hydrodynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murzov, S. A.; Sergeev, O. V.; Dyachkov, S. A.; Egorova, M. S.; Parshikov, A. N.; Zhakhovsky, V. V.

2016-11-01

Here we extend consistent simulations to reactive materials by the example of AB model explosive. The kinetic model of chemical reactions observed in a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of self-sustained detonation wave can be used in hydrodynamic simulation of detonation initiation. Kinetic coefficients are obtained by minimization of difference between profiles of species calculated from the kinetic model and observed in MD simulations of isochoric thermal decomposition with a help of downhill simplex method combined with random walk in multidimensional space of fitting kinetic model parameters.

ARM Cloud Radar Simulator Package for Global Climate Models Value-Added Product

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng

It has been challenging to directly compare U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ground-based cloud radar measurements with climate model output because of limitations or features of the observing processes and the spatial gap between model and the single-point measurements. To facilitate the use of ARM radar data in numerical models, an ARM cloud radar simulator was developed to converts model data into pseudo-ARM cloud radar observations that mimic the instrument view of a narrow atmospheric column (as compared to a large global climate model [GCM] grid-cell), thus allowing meaningful comparison between model outputmore » and ARM cloud observations. The ARM cloud radar simulator value-added product (VAP) was developed based on the CloudSat simulator contained in the community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011), which has been widely used in climate model evaluation with satellite data (Klein et al., 2013, Zhang et al., 2010). The essential part of the CloudSat simulator is the QuickBeam radar simulator that is used to produce CloudSat-like radar reflectivity, but is capable of simulating reflectivity for other radars (Marchand et al., 2009; Haynes et al., 2007). Adapting QuickBeam to the ARM cloud radar simulator within COSP required two primary changes: one was to set the frequency to 35 GHz for the ARM Ka-band cloud radar, as opposed to 94 GHz used for the CloudSat W-band radar, and the second was to invert the view from the ground to space so as to attenuate the beam correctly. In addition, the ARM cloud radar simulator uses a finer vertical resolution (100 m compared to 500 m for CloudSat) to resolve the more detailed structure of clouds captured by the ARM radars. The ARM simulator has been developed following the COSP workflow (Figure 1) and using the capabilities available in COSP wherever possible. The ARM simulator is written in Fortran 90, just as is the COSP. It is incorporated into COSP to facilitate use by the climate modeling community. In order to evaluate simulator output, the observational counterpart of the simulator output, radar reflectivity-height histograms (CFAD) is also generated from the ARM observations. This report includes an overview of the ARM cloud radar simulator VAP and the required simulator-oriented ARM radar data product (radarCFAD) for validating simulator output, as well as a user guide for operating the ARM radar simulator VAP.« less

The role of historical forcings in simulating the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Lisa N.; Bellomo, Katinka; Cane, Mark; Clement, Amy

2017-03-01

We analyze the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in the preindustrial (PI) and historical (HIST) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to assess the drivers of the observed AMO from 1865 to 2005. We draw 141 year samples from the 41 CMIP5 model's PI runs and compare the correlation and variance between the observed AMO and the simulated PI and HIST AMO. The correlation coefficients in 38 forced (HIST) models are above the 90% confidence level and explain up to 56% of the observed variance. The probability that any of the unforced (PI) models do as well is less than 3% in 31 models. Multidecadal variability is larger in 39 CMIP5 HIST simulations and in all HIST members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble than their corresponding PI. We conclude that there is an essential role for external forcing in driving the observed AMO.

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 ModelE simulated clouds and TOA radiation budgets using satellite observations over the southern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, Ryan Evan

Past, current, and future climates have been simulated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE Global Circulation Model (GCM) and summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR4). New simulations from the updated CMIP5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM were recently released to the public community during the summer of 2011 and will be included in the upcoming IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, they have not yet been extensively validated against observations. To assess the NASA GISS-E2-R GCM, model simulated clouds and cloud properties are compared to observational cloud properties derived from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project using MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period of March 2000 through December 2005. Over the 6-year period, the global average modeled cloud fractions are within 1% of observations. However, further study however shows large regional biases between the GCM simulations and CERES-MODIS observations. The southern mid-latitudes (SML) were chosen as a focus region due to model errors across multiple GCMs within the recent phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Over the SML, the GISS GCM undersimulates total cloud fraction over 20%, but oversimulates total water path by 2 g m-2. Simulated vertical cloud distributions over the SML when compared to both CERES-MODIS and CloudSat/CALIPSO observations show a drastic undersimulation of low level clouds by the GISS GCM, but higher fractions of thicker clouds. To assess the impact of GISS simulated clouds on the TOA radiation budgets, the modeled TOA radiation budgets are compared to CERES EBAF observations. Because modeled low-level cloud fraction is much lower than observed over the SML, modeled reflected shortwave (SW) flux at the TOA is 13 W m -2 lower and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is 3 W m-2 higher than observations. Finally, cloud radiative effects (CRE) are calculated and compared with observations to fully assess the impact of clouds on the TOA radiation budgets. The difference in clear-sky reflected SW flux between model and observation is only +4 W m-2 while the SW CRE difference is up to 17 W m-2, indicating that most of the bias in SW CRE results from the all-sky bias between the model and observation. A sizeable negative bias of 10 W m-2 in simulated clear-sky OLR has been found due to a dry bias in calculating observed clear-sky OLR and lack of upper-level water vapor at the 100-mb level in the model. The dry bias impacts CRE LW, with the model undersimulating by 13 W m-2. The CRE NET difference is only 5 W m-2 due to the cancellation of SW and LW CRE biases.

Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool for meteorological and air quality simulations

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool compares model predictions to observed data from various meteorological and air quality observation networks to help evaluate meteorological and air quality simulations.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

Simulation of streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-coal-mined basins in Fayette County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sams, J. I.; Witt, E. C.

1995-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-mined basins of Fayette County, Pa. Hydrologic data from the Stony Fork Basin (0.93 square miles) was used to calibrate HSPF parameters. The calibrated parameters were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin (8.83 square miles) to evaluate the transfer value of model parameters. The results of this investigation provide information to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, regarding the value of the simulated hydrologic data for use in cumulative hydrologic-impact assessments of surface-mined basins. The calibration period was October 1, 1985, through September 30, 1988 (water years 1986-88). The simulated data were representative of the observed data from the Stony Fork Basin. Mean simulated streamflow was 1.64 cubic feet per second compared to measured streamflow of 1.58 cubic feet per second for the 3-year period. The difference between the observed and simulated peak stormflow ranged from 4.0 to 59.7 percent for 12 storms. The simulated sediment load for the 1987 water year was 127.14 tons (0.21 ton per acre), which compares to a measured sediment load of 147.09 tons (0.25 ton per acre). The total simulated suspended-sediment load for the 3-year period was 538.2 tons (0.30 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 467.61 tons (0.26 ton per acre per year). The model was verified by comparing observed and simulated data from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 1989. The results obtained were comparable to those from the calibration period. The simulated mean daily discharge was representative of the range of data observed from the basin and of the frequency with which specific discharges were equalled or exceeded. The calibrated and verified parameters from the Stony Fork model were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin. The two basins are in a similar physical setting. Data from October 1, 1987, through September 30, 1989, were used to evaluate the Poplar Run model. In general, the results from the Poplar Run model were comparable to those obtained from the Stony Fork model. The difference between observed and simulated total streamflow was 1.1 percent for the 2-year period. The mean annual streamflow simulated by the Poplar Run model was 18.3 cubic feet per second. This compares to an observed streamflow of 18.15 cubic feet per second. For the 2-year period, the simulated sediment load was 2,754 tons (0.24 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 3,051.2 tons (0.27 ton per acre per year) for the Poplar Run Basin. Cumulative frequency-distribution curves of the observed and simulated streamflow compared well. The comparison between observed and simulated data improved as the time span increased. Simulated annual means and totals were more representative of the observed data than hourly data used in comparing storm events. The structure and organization of the HSPF model facilitated the simulation of a wide range of hydrologic processes. The simulation results from this investigation indicate that model parameters may be transferred to ungaged basins to generate representative hydrologic data through modeling techniques.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2018-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation. PMID:29697704

An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.;

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: a comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tang, Guoping; Shafer, Sarah L.; Barlein, Patrick J.; Holman, Justin O.

2009-01-01

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO2 concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.

Supporting observation campaigns with high resolution modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klocke, Daniel; Brueck, Matthias; Voigt, Aiko

2017-04-01

High resolution simulation in support of measurement campaigns offers a promising and emerging way to create large-scale context for small-scale observations of clouds and precipitation processes. As these simulation include the coupling of measured small-scale processes with the circulation, they also help to integrate the research communities from modeling and observations and allow for detailed model evaluations against dedicated observations. In connection with the measurement campaign NARVAL (August 2016 and December 2013) simulations with a grid-spacing of 2.5 km for the tropical Atlantic region (9000x3300 km), with local refinement to 1.2 km for the western part of the domain, were performed using the icosahedral non-hydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model. These simulations are again used to drive large eddy resolving simulations with the same model for selected days in the high definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project. The simulations are presented with the focus on selected results showing the benefit for the scientific communities doing atmospheric measurements and numerical modeling of climate and weather. Additionally, an outlook will be given on how similar simulations will support the NAWDEX measurement campaign in the North Atlantic and AC3 measurement campaign in the Arctic.

T-COMP—A suite of programs for extracting transmissivity from MODFLOW models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.

2016-02-12

Simulated transmissivities are constrained poorly by assigning permissible ranges of hydraulic conductivities from aquifer-test results to hydrogeologic units in groundwater-flow models. These wide ranges are derived from interpretations of many aquifer tests that are categorized by hydrogeologic unit. Uncertainty is added where contributing thicknesses differ between field estimates and numerical models. Wide ranges of hydraulic conductivities and discordant thicknesses result in simulated transmissivities that frequently are much greater than aquifer-test results. Multiple orders of magnitude differences frequently occur between simulated and observed transmissivities where observed transmissivities are less than 1,000 feet squared per day.Transmissivity observations from individual aquifer tests can constrain model calibration as head and flow observations do. This approach is superior to diluting aquifer-test results into generalized ranges of hydraulic conductivities. Observed and simulated transmissivities can be compared directly with T-COMP, a suite of three FORTRAN programs. Transmissivity observations require that simulated hydraulic conductivities and thicknesses in the volume investigated by an aquifer test be extracted and integrated into a simulated transmissivity. Transmissivities of MODFLOW model cells are sampled within the volume affected by an aquifer test as defined by a well-specific, radial-flow model of each aquifer test. Sampled transmissivities of model cells are averaged within a layer and summed across layers. Accuracy of the approach was tested with hypothetical, multiple-aquifer models where specified transmissivities ranged between 250 and 20,000 feet squared per day. More than 90 percent of simulated transmissivities were within a factor of 2 of specified transmissivities.

A Quantitative Dynamic Simulation of Bremia lactucae Airborne Conidia Concentration above a Lettuce Canopy.

PubMed

Fall, Mamadou Lamine; Van der Heyden, Hervé; Carisse, Odile

2016-01-01

Lettuce downy mildew, caused by the oomycete Bremia lactucae Regel, is a major threat to lettuce production worldwide. Lettuce downy mildew is a polycyclic disease driven by airborne spores. A weather-based dynamic simulation model for B. lactucae airborne spores was developed to simulate the aerobiological characteristics of the pathogen. The model was built using the STELLA platform by following the system dynamics methodology. The model was developed using published equations describing disease subprocesses (e.g., sporulation) and assembled knowledge of the interactions among pathogen, host, and weather. The model was evaluated with four years of independent data by comparing model simulations with observations of hourly and daily airborne spore concentrations. The results show an accurate simulation of the trend and shape of B. lactucae temporal dynamics of airborne spore concentration. The model simulated hourly and daily peaks in airborne spore concentrations. More than 95% of the simulation runs, the daily-simulated airborne conidia concentration was 0 when airborne conidia were not observed. Also, the relationship between the simulated and the observed airborne spores was linear. In more than 94% of the simulation runs, the proportion of the linear variation in the hourly-observed values explained by the variation in the hourly-simulated values was greater than 0.7 in all years except one. Most of the errors came from the deviation from the 1:1 line, and the proportion of errors due to the model bias was low. This model is the only dynamic model developed to mimic the dynamics of airborne inoculum and represents an initial step towards improved lettuce downy mildew understanding, forecasting and management.

A Quantitative Dynamic Simulation of Bremia lactucae Airborne Conidia Concentration above a Lettuce Canopy

PubMed Central

Fall, Mamadou Lamine; Van der Heyden, Hervé; Carisse, Odile

2016-01-01

Lettuce downy mildew, caused by the oomycete Bremia lactucae Regel, is a major threat to lettuce production worldwide. Lettuce downy mildew is a polycyclic disease driven by airborne spores. A weather-based dynamic simulation model for B. lactucae airborne spores was developed to simulate the aerobiological characteristics of the pathogen. The model was built using the STELLA platform by following the system dynamics methodology. The model was developed using published equations describing disease subprocesses (e.g., sporulation) and assembled knowledge of the interactions among pathogen, host, and weather. The model was evaluated with four years of independent data by comparing model simulations with observations of hourly and daily airborne spore concentrations. The results show an accurate simulation of the trend and shape of B. lactucae temporal dynamics of airborne spore concentration. The model simulated hourly and daily peaks in airborne spore concentrations. More than 95% of the simulation runs, the daily-simulated airborne conidia concentration was 0 when airborne conidia were not observed. Also, the relationship between the simulated and the observed airborne spores was linear. In more than 94% of the simulation runs, the proportion of the linear variation in the hourly-observed values explained by the variation in the hourly-simulated values was greater than 0.7 in all years except one. Most of the errors came from the deviation from the 1:1 line, and the proportion of errors due to the model bias was low. This model is the only dynamic model developed to mimic the dynamics of airborne inoculum and represents an initial step towards improved lettuce downy mildew understanding, forecasting and management. PMID:26953691

Multimodel comparison of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Fang, T.-W.; Jin, H.; Sassi, F.; Schmidt, H.; Chau, J. L.; Siddiqui, T. A.; Goncharenko, L.

2016-07-01

A comparison of different model simulations of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) is presented. The focus is on the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Ground-to-topside model of the Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Model plus Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere (WAM+GIP), and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version plus Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (WACCMX+TIMEGCM). The simulations are compared with observations of the equatorial vertical plasma drift in the American and Indian longitude sectors, zonal mean F region peak density (NmF2) from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites, and ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) at 75°W. The model simulations all reproduce the observed morning enhancement and afternoon decrease in the vertical plasma drift, as well as the progression of the anomalies toward later local times over the course of several days. However, notable discrepancies among the simulations are seen in terms of the magnitude of the drift perturbations, and rate of the local time shift. Comparison of the electron densities further reveals that although many of the broad features of the ionosphere variability are captured by the simulations, there are significant differences among the different model simulations, as well as between the simulations and observations. Additional simulations are performed where the neutral atmospheres from four different whole atmosphere models (GAIA, HAMMONIA (Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere), WAM, and WACCMX) provide the lower atmospheric forcing in the TIME-GCM. These simulations demonstrate that different neutral atmospheres, in particular, differences in the solar migrating semidiurnal tide, are partly responsible for the differences in the simulated ionosphere variability in GAIA, WAM+GIP, and WACCMX+TIMEGCM.

Theoretical Models of Protostellar Binary and Multiple Systems with AMR Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Tomoaki; Tokuda, Kazuki; Onishi, Toshikazu; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro; Saigo, Kazuya; Takakuwa, Shigehisa

2017-05-01

We present theoretical models for protostellar binary and multiple systems based on the high-resolution numerical simulation with an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) code, SFUMATO. The recent ALMA observations have revealed early phases of the binary and multiple star formation with high spatial resolutions. These observations should be compared with theoretical models with high spatial resolutions. We present two theoretical models for (1) a high density molecular cloud core, MC27/L1521F, and (2) a protobinary system, L1551 NE. For the model for MC27, we performed numerical simulations for gravitational collapse of a turbulent cloud core. The cloud core exhibits fragmentation during the collapse, and dynamical interaction between the fragments produces an arc-like structure, which is one of the prominent structures observed by ALMA. For the model for L1551 NE, we performed numerical simulations of gas accretion onto protobinary. The simulations exhibit asymmetry of a circumbinary disk. Such asymmetry has been also observed by ALMA in the circumbinary disk of L1551 NE.

A Mixed Phase Tale: New Ways of using in-situ cloud observations to reduce climate model biases in Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettelman, A.; Stith, J. L.

2014-12-01

Southern ocean clouds are a critical part of the earth's energy budget, and significant biases in the climatology of these clouds exist in models used to predict climate change. We compare in situ measurements of cloud microphysical properties of ice and liquid over the S. Ocean with constrained output from the atmospheric component of an Earth System Model. Observations taken during the HIAPER (the NSF/NCAR G-V aircraft) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) multi-year field campaign are compared with simulations from the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Remarkably, CESM is able to accurately simulate the locations of cloud formation, and even cloud microphysical properties are comparable between the model and observations. Significantly, the simulations do not predict sufficient supercooled liquid. Altering the model cloud and aerosol processes to better reproduce the observations of supercooled liquid acts to reduce long-standing biases in S. Ocean clouds in CESM, which are typical of other models. Furthermore, sensitivity tests show where better observational constraints on aerosols and cloud microphysics can reduce uncertainty and biases in global models. These results are intended to show how we can connect large scale simulations with field observations in the S. Ocean to better understand Southern Ocean cloud processes and reduce biases in global climate simulations.

Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2014-01-01

Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

2013-12-01

Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite difference calculation based on the shallow water theory. The initial wave height for tsunami generation is estimated from the vertical displacement of ocean bottom due to the crustal movements, which is obtained from the ground motion simulation mentioned above. The results of tsunami simulations are compared with the observations of the GPS wave gauges to evaluate the validity for the tsunami prediction using the fault model based on the seismic observation records.

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaffen, Dian J.; Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Boyle, James S.

1997-01-01

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Chia-Bo

1994-01-01

This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model output can provide reliable guidance for thunderstorm forecasting.

CRYSTAL-FACE Analysis and Simulations of the July 23rd Extended Anvil Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David

2003-01-01

A key focus of CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) was the generation and subsequent evolution of cirrus outflow from deep convective cloud systems. Present theoretical background and motivations will be discussed. An integrated look at the observations of an extended cirrus anvil cloud system observed on 23 July 2002 will be presented, including lidar and millimeter radar observation; from NASA s ER-2 and in-situ observations from NASA s WB-57 and University of North Dakota Citation. The observations will be compared to results of simulations using 1-D and 2-D high-resolution (100 meter) cloud resolving models. The CRMs explicitly account for cirrus microphysical development by resolving the evolving ice crystal size distribution (bin model) in time and space. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation are allowed in the model. The CRM simulations are driven using the output of regional simulations using MM5 that produces deep convection similar to what was observed. The MM5 model employs a 2 km inner grid (32 layers) over a 360 km domain, nested within a 6-km grid over a 600-km domain. Initial and boundary conditions for the 36-hour MM5 simulation are taken from NCEP Eta model analysis at 32 km resolution. Key issues to be explored are the settling of the observed anvil versus the model simulations, and comparisons of dynamical properties, such as vertical motions, occurring in the observations and models. The former provides an integrated measure of the validity of the model microphysics (fallspeed) while the latter is the key factor in forcing continued ice generation.

Comparison of thunderstorm simulations from WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models over East Indian Region.

PubMed

Litta, A J; Mary Ididcula, Sumam; Mohanty, U C; Kiran Prasad, S

2012-01-01

The thunderstorms are typical mesoscale systems dominated by intense convection. Mesoscale models are essential for the accurate prediction of such high-impact weather events. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the simulated results of three thunderstorm events using NMM and ARW model core of WRF system and validated the model results with observations. Both models performed well in capturing stability indices which are indicators of severe convective activity. Comparison of model-simulated radar reflectivity imageries with observations revealed that NMM model has simulated well the propagation of the squall line, while the squall line movement was slow in ARW. From the model-simulated spatial plots of cloud top temperature, we can see that NMM model has better captured the genesis, intensification, and propagation of thunder squall than ARW model. The statistical analysis of rainfall indicates the better performance of NMM than ARW. Comparison of model-simulated thunderstorm affected parameters with that of the observed showed that NMM has performed better than ARW in capturing the sharp rise in humidity and drop in temperature. This suggests that NMM model has the potential to provide unique and valuable information for severe thunderstorm forecasters over east Indian region.

Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts

DOE PAGES

Ukkola, A. M.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Pitman, A. J.; ...

2016-10-13

Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ~3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ~8 times greater than observed and twice asmore » intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE PAGES

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

2017-01-17

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

Evaluation of NCAR CAM5 Simulated Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Properties Using a Combination of Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Song, H.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Dong, X.

2016-12-01

he main objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the MBL cloud properties simulated in CAM5 family models using a combination of satellite-based CloudSat/MODIS observations and ground-based observations from the ARM Azores site, with a special focus on MBL cloud microphysics and warm rain process. First, we will present a global evaluation based on satellite observations and retrievals. We will compare global cloud properties (e.g., cloud fraction, cloud vertical structure, cloud CER, COT, and LWP, as well as drizzle frequency and intensity diagnosed using the CAM5-COSP instrumental simulators) simulated in the CAM5 models with the collocated CloudSat and MODIS observations. We will also present some preliminary results from a regional evaluation based mainly on ground observations from ARM Azores site. We will compare MBL cloud properties simulated in CAM5 models over the ARM Azores site with collocated satellite (MODIS and CloudSat) and ground-based observations from the ARM site.

Comparison of Global Cloud Fraction and TOA Radiation Budgets between the NASA GISS AR5 GCM Simulations and CERES-MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R. E.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Del Genio, A. D.; Minnis, P.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.

2011-12-01

To better advise policymakers, it is necessary for climate models to provide credible predictions of future climates. Meeting this goal requires climate models to successfully simulate the present and past climates. The past, current and future Earth climate has been simulated by the NASA GISS ModelE climate model and has been summarized by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4, 2007). New simulations from the updated AR5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM have been released to the public community and will be included in the IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, however, they have yet to be extensively validated against observations. To evaluate the GISS AR5 simulated global clouds and TOA radiation budgets, we have collected and processed the NASA CERES and MODIS observations during the period 2000-2005. In detail, the 1ox1o resolution monthly averaged SYN1 product has been used with combined observations from both Terra and Aqua satellites, and degraded to a 2ox2.5o grid box to match the GCM spatial resolution. These observations are temporally interpolated and fit to data from geostationary satellites to provide time continuity. The GISS AR5 products were downloaded from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for the IPCC-AR5. Preliminary comparisons between GISS AR5 simulations and CERES-MODIS observations have shown that although their annual and seasonal mean CFs agree within a few percent, there are significant differences in several climatic regions. For example, the modeled CFs have positive biases in the Arctic, Antarctic, Tropics, and Sahara Desert, but negative biases over the southern middle latitudes (30-65 oS). The OLR, albedo and NET radiation comparisons are similar to the CF comparison.

Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) impacts on WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure and distributions of CMAQ-simulated winter ozone concentrations in Uintah Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Trang; Tran, Huy; Mansfield, Marc; Lyman, Seth; Crosman, Erik

2018-03-01

Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) was applied in WRF-CMAQ model sensitivity tests to study the impact of observational and analysis nudging on model performance in simulating inversion layers and O3 concentration distributions within the Uintah Basin, Utah, U.S.A. in winter 2013. Observational nudging substantially improved WRF model performance in simulating surface wind fields, correcting a 10 °C warm surface temperature bias, correcting overestimation of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and correcting underestimation of inversion strengths produced by regular WRF model physics without nudging. However, the combined effects of poor performance of WRF meteorological model physical parameterization schemes in simulating low clouds, and warm and moist biases in the temperature and moisture initialization and subsequent simulation fields, likely amplified the overestimation of warm clouds during inversion days when observational nudging was applied, impacting the resulting O3 photochemical formation in the chemistry model. To reduce the impact of a moist bias in the simulations on warm cloud formation, nudging with the analysis water mixing ratio above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was applied. However, due to poor analysis vertical temperature profiles, applying analysis nudging also increased the errors in the modeled inversion layer vertical structure compared to observational nudging. Combining both observational and analysis nudging methods resulted in unrealistically extreme stratified stability that trapped pollutants at the lowest elevations at the center of the Uintah Basin and yielded the worst WRF performance in simulating inversion layer structure among the four sensitivity tests. The results of this study illustrate the importance of carefully considering the representativeness and quality of the observational and model analysis data sets when applying nudging techniques within stable PBLs, and the need to evaluate model results on a basin-wide scale.

The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Yu, Jin-Yi

2012-06-01

In this study, we evaluate the intensity of the Central-Pacific (CP) and Eastern-Pacific (EP) types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the pre-industrial, historical, and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the CMIP3 models, the pre-industrial simulations of the CMIP5 models are found to (1) better simulate the observed spatial patterns of the two types of ENSO and (2) have a significantly smaller inter-model diversity in ENSO intensities. The decrease in the CMIP5 model discrepancies is particularly obvious in the simulation of the EP ENSO intensity, although it is still more difficult for the models to reproduce the observed EP ENSO intensity than the observed CP ENSO intensity. Ensemble means of the CMIP5 models indicate that the intensity of the CP ENSO increases steadily from the pre-industrial to the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, but the intensity of the EP ENSO increases from the pre-industrial to the historical simulations and then decreases in the RCP4.5 projections. The CP-to-EP ENSO intensity ratio, as a result, is almost the same in the pre-industrial and historical simulations but increases in the RCP4.5 simulation.

Simulating floods in the Amazon River Basin: Impacts of new river geomorphic and dynamic flow parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Howard, E. A.

2006-12-01

In this paper we analyze the hydrology of the Amazon River system for the latter half of the 20th century with our recently completed model of terrestrial hydrology (Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry, THMB). We evaluate the simulated hydrology of the Central Amazon basin against limited observations of river discharge, floodplain inundation, and water height and analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrology for the period 1939-1998. We compare the simulated discharge and floodplain inundated area to the simulations by Coe et al., 2002 using a previous version of this model. The new model simulates the discharge and flooded area in better agreement with the observations than the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed discharge for the greater than 27000 monthly observations of discharge at 120 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon is 0.9874 compared to 0.9744 for the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated monthly flooded area and the satellite-based estimates by Sippel et al., 1998 exceeds 0.7 for 8 of the 12 mainstem reaches. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the water height and the river slope compares favorably to the satellite altimetric measurements of height reported by Birkett et al., 2002.

Description of the LASSO Alpha 1 Release

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson, William I.; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Cheng, Xiaoping

The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has been named the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations will serve many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further,more » it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO will generate a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It will also provide tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. Many different uses are envisioned for the combined LASSO LES and observational library. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO will help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model yourself. For a modeler, LASSO will help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at http://www.arm. gov/science/themes/lasso.« less

Comparing Simulations and Observations of Galaxy Evolution: Methods for Constraining the Nature of Stellar Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummels, Cameron

Computational hydrodynamical simulations are a very useful tool for understanding how galaxies form and evolve over cosmological timescales not easily revealed through observations. However, they are only useful if they reproduce the sorts of galaxies that we see in the real universe. One of the ways in which simulations of this sort tend to fail is in the prescription of stellar feedback, the process by which nascent stars return material and energy to their immediate environments. Careful treatment of this interaction in subgrid models, so-called because they operate on scales below the resolution of the simulation, is crucial for the development of realistic galaxy models. Equally important is developing effective methods for comparing simulation data against observations to ensure galaxy models which mimic reality and inform us about natural phenomena. This thesis examines the formation and evolution of galaxies and the observable characteristics of the resulting systems. We employ extensive use of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations in order to simulate and interpret the evolution of massive spiral galaxies like our own Milky Way. First, we create a method for producing synthetic photometric images of grid-based hydrodynamical models for use in a direct comparison against observations in a variety of filter bands. We apply this method to a simulation of a cluster of galaxies to investigate the nature of the red-sequence/blue-cloud dichotomy in the galaxy color-magnitude diagram. Second, we implement several subgrid models governing the complex behavior of gas and stars on small scales in our galaxy models. Several numerical simulations are conducted with similar initial conditions, where we systematically vary the subgrid models, afterward assessing their efficacy through comparisons of their internal kinematics with observed systems. Third, we generate an additional method to compare observations with simulations, focusing on the tenuous circumgalactic medium. Informed by our previous studies, we investigate the sensitivity of this new mode of comparison to hydrodynamical subgrid prescription. Finally, we synthesize the results of these studies and identify future avenues of research.

Improved simulation of regional CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-08-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However, one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single station reflect all underlying processes of various scales. These processes usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the station due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in the model. In this study the stations in one region were grouped based on the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle at each station. The regionally averaged CO2 at all stations in one region represents the regional CO2 concentration of this region. The regional CO2 concentrations from model simulations and observations were used to evaluate the regional model results. The difference of the regional CO2 concentration between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainty of the large-scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the regional CO2 concentrations between model results with biospheric fluxes from the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) models, and used observations from GLOBALVIEW-CO2 to evaluate the regional model results. The results show the largest difference of the regionally averaged values between simulations with fluxes from VEGAS and observations is less than 5 ppm for North American boreal, North American temperate, Eurasian boreal, Eurasian temperate and Europe, which is smaller than the largest difference between CASA simulations and observations (more than 5 ppm). There is still a large difference between two model results and observations for the regional CO2 concentration in the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific tropics. The regionally averaged CO2 concentrations will be helpful for comparing CO2 concentrations from modeled results and observations and evaluating regional surface fluxes from different methods.

Constraints Pb-210 and Be-7 on Wet Deposition and Transport in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Tracer Model Driven by Assimilated Meteorological Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hong-Yu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Bey, Isabelle; Yantosca, Robert M.

2001-01-01

The atmospheric distributions of the aerosol tracers Pb-210 and Be-7 are simulated with a global three-dimensional model driven by assimilated meteorological observations for 1991-1996 from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOSl). The combination of terrigenic Pb-210 and cosmogenic Be-7 provides a sensitive test of wet deposition and vertical transport in the model. Our simulation of moist transport and removal includes scavenging in wet convective updrafts (40% scavenging efficiency per kilometer of updraft), midlevel entrainment and detrainment, first-order rainout and washout from both convective anvils and large-scale precipitation, and cirrus precipitation. Observations from surface sites in specific years are compared to model results for the corresponding meteorological years, and observations from aircraft missions over the Pacific are compared to model results for the days of the flights. Initial simulation of Be-7 showed that cross-tropopause transport in the GEOSl meteorological fields is too fast by a factor of 3-4. We adjusted the stratospheric Be-7 source to correct the tropospheric simulation. Including this correction, we find that the model gives a good simulation of observed Pb-210 and Be-7 concentrations and deposition fluxes at surface sites worldwide, with no significant global bias and with significant success in reproducing the observed latitudinal and seasonal distributions. We achieve several improvements over previous models; in particular, we reproduce the observed Be-7 minimum in the tropics and show that its simulation is sensitive to rainout from convective anvils. Comparisons with aircraft observations up to 12-km altitude suggest that cirrus precipitation could be important for explaining the low concentrations in the middle and upper troposphere.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson, William I.; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Cheng, Xiaoping

The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has been named the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Climate Research Facility. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations will serve many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES addsmore » value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO will generate a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It will also provide tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. Many different uses are envisioned for the combined LASSO LES and observational library. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote sensing retrievals, conduct Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO will help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model yourself. For a modeler, LASSO will help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.« less

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Model Experiments - ISOGAME

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Stephens, Philip; Iijima, Bryron A.

2013-01-01

Modeling and imaging the Earth's ionosphere as well as understanding its structures, inhomogeneities, and disturbances is a key part of NASA's Heliophysics Directorate science roadmap. This invention provides a design tool for scientific missions focused on the ionosphere. It is a scientifically important and technologically challenging task to assess the impact of a new observation system quantitatively on our capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. This question is often raised whenever a new satellite system is proposed, a new type of data is emerging, or a new modeling technique is developed. The proposed constellation would be part of a new observation system with more low-Earth orbiters tracking more radio occultation signals broadcast by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) than those offered by the current GPS and COSMIC observation system. A simulation system was developed to fulfill this task. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) including first-principles and empirical ionospheric models, a multiple- dipole geomagnetic field model, data assimilation modules, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software.

Using observed postconstruction peak discharges to evaluate a hydrologic and hydraulic design model, Boneyard Creek, Champaign and Urbana, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Soong, David T.; Holmes, Robert R.

2011-01-01

Boneyard Creek—which drains an urbanized watershed in the cities of Champaign and Urbana, Illinois, including part of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) campus—has historically been prone to flooding. Using the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), a hydrologic and hydraulic model of Boneyard Creek was developed for the design of the projects making up the first phase of a long-term plan for flood control on Boneyard Creek, and the construction of the projects was completed in May 2003. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Cities of Champaign and Urbana and UIUC, installed and operated stream and rain gages in order to obtain data for evaluation of the design-model simulations. In this study, design-model simulations were evaluated by using observed postconstruction precipitation and peak-discharge data. Between May 2003 and September 2008, five high-flow events on Boneyard Creek satisfied the study criterion. The five events were simulated with the design model by using observed precipitation. The simulations were run with two different values of the parameter controlling the soil moisture at the beginning of the storms and two different ways of spatially distributing the precipitation, making a total of four simulation scenarios. The simulated and observed peak discharges and stages were compared at gaged locations along the Creek. The discharge at one of these locations was deemed to be critical for evaluating the design model. The uncertainty of the measured peak discharge was also estimated at the critical location with a method based on linear regression of the stage and discharge relation, an estimate of the uncertainty of the acoustic Doppler velocity meter measurements, and the uncertainty of the stage measurements. For four of the five events, the simulated peak discharges lie within the 95-percent confidence interval of the observed peak discharges at the critical location; the fifth was just outside the upper end of this interval. For two of the four simulation scenarios, the simulation results for one event at the critical location were numerically unstable in the vicinity of the discharge peak. For the remaining scenarios, the simulated peak discharges over the five events at the critical location differ from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of 7.7 and -1.5 percent, respectively. The simulated peak discharges over the four events for which all scenarios have numerically stable results at the critical location differs from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of -6.8, 4.0, -5.4, and 1.5 percent, for the four scenarios, respectively. Overall, the discharge peaks simulated for this study at the critical location are approximately balanced between overprediction and underprediction and do not indicate significant model bias or inaccuracy. Additional comparisons were made by using peak stages at the critical location and two additional sites and using peak discharges at one additional site. These comparisons showed the same pattern of differences between observed and simulated values across events but varying biases depending on streamgage and measurement type (discharge or stage). Altogether, the results from this study show no clear evidence that the design model is significantly inaccurate or biased and, therefore, no clear evidence that the modeled flood-control projects in Champaign and on the University of Illinois campus have increased flood stages or discharges downstream in Urbana.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, L.; Jakob, C.; Cheung, K.; DelGenio, A.; Hill, A.; Hume, T.; Keane, R. J.; Komori, T.; Larson, V. E.; Lin, Y.;

Gravity Modeling for Variable Fidelity Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madden, Michael M.

2006-01-01

Aerospace simulations can model worlds, such as the Earth, with differing levels of fidelity. The simulation may represent the world as a plane, a sphere, an ellipsoid, or a high-order closed surface. The world may or may not rotate. The user may select lower fidelity models based on computational limits, a need for simplified analysis, or comparison to other data. However, the user will also wish to retain a close semblance of behavior to the real world. The effects of gravity on objects are an important component of modeling real-world behavior. Engineers generally equate the term gravity with the observed free-fall acceleration. However, free-fall acceleration is not equal to all observers. To observers on the sur-face of a rotating world, free-fall acceleration is the sum of gravitational attraction and the centrifugal acceleration due to the world's rotation. On the other hand, free-fall acceleration equals gravitational attraction to an observer in inertial space. Surface-observed simulations (e.g. aircraft), which use non-rotating world models, may choose to model observed free fall acceleration as the gravity term; such a model actually combines gravitational at-traction with centrifugal acceleration due to the Earth s rotation. However, this modeling choice invites confusion as one evolves the simulation to higher fidelity world models or adds inertial observers. Care must be taken to model gravity in concert with the world model to avoid denigrating the fidelity of modeling observed free fall. The paper will go into greater depth on gravity modeling and the physical disparities and synergies that arise when coupling specific gravity models with world models.

A Ground-Based Doppler Radar and Micropulse Lidar Forward Simulator for GCM Evaluation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Moving Forward Towards an Apples-to-apples Comparison of Hydrometeor Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2017-12-01

An important aspect of evaluating Artic cloud representation in a general circulation model (GCM) consists of using observational benchmarks which are as equivalent as possible to model output in order to avoid methodological bias and focus on correctly diagnosing model dynamical and microphysical misrepresentations. However, current cloud observing systems are known to suffer from biases such as limited sensitivity, and stronger response to large or small hydrometeors. Fortunately, while these observational biases cannot be corrected, they are often well understood and can be reproduced in forward simulations. Here a ground-based millimeter wavelength Doppler radar and micropulse lidar forward simulator able to interface with output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE GCM is presented. ModelE stratiform hydrometeor fraction, mixing ratio, mass-weighted fall speed and effective radius are forward simulated to vertically-resolved profiles of radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity and spectrum width as well as lidar backscatter and depolarization ratio. These forward simulated fields are then compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) ground-based observations to assess cloud vertical structure (CVS). Model evalution of Arctic mixed-phase cloud would also benefit from hydrometeor phase evaluation. While phase retrieval from synergetic observations often generates large uncertainties, the same retrieval algorithm can be applied to observed and forward-simulated radar-lidar fields, thereby producing retrieved hydrometeor properties with potentially the same uncertainties. Comparing hydrometeor properties retrieved in exactly the same way aims to produce the best apples-to-apples comparisons between GCM ouputs and observations. The use of a comprenhensive ground-based forward simulator coupled with a hydrometeor classification retrieval algorithm provides a new perspective for GCM evaluation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds from the ground where low-level supercooled liquid layer are more easily observed and where additional environmental properties such as cloud condensation nuclei are quantified. This should help assist in choosing between several possible diagnostic ice nucleation schemes for ModelE stratiform cloud.

POD experiments using real and simulated time-sharing observations for GEO satellites in C-band transfer ranging system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fen, Cao; XuHai, Yang; ZhiGang, Li; ChuGang, Feng

2016-08-01

The normal consecutive observing model in Chinese Area Positioning System (CAPS) can only supply observations of one GEO satellite in 1 day from one station. However, this can't satisfy the project need for observing many GEO satellites in 1 day. In order to obtain observations of several GEO satellites in 1 day like GPS/GLONASS/Galileo/BeiDou, the time-sharing observing model for GEO satellites in CAPS needs research. The principle of time-sharing observing model is illuminated with subsequent Precise Orbit Determination (POD) experiments using simulated time-sharing observations in 2005 and the real time-sharing observations in 2015. From time-sharing simulation experiments before 2014, the time-sharing observing 6 GEO satellites every 2 h has nearly the same orbit precision with the consecutive observing model. From POD experiments using the real time-sharing observations, POD precision for ZX12# and Yatai7# are about 3.234 m and 2.570 m, respectively, which indicates the time-sharing observing model is appropriate for CBTR system and can realize observing many GEO satellites in 1 day.

3-D velocity structure model for long-period ground motion simulation of the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagawa, T.; Petukhin, A.; Koketsu, K.; Miyake, H.; Murotani, S.; Tsurugi, M.

2010-12-01

Three dimensional velocity structure model of southwest Japan is provided to simulate long-period ground motions due to the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. The model is constructed from numerous physical explorations conducted in land and offshore areas and observational study of natural earthquakes. Any available information is involved to explain crustal structure and sedimentary structure. Figure 1 shows an example of cross section with P wave velocities. The model has been revised through numbers of simulations of small to middle earthquakes as to have good agreement with observed arrival times, amplitudes, and also waveforms including surface waves. Figure 2 shows a comparison between Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms. Low velocity layers have added on seismological basement to reproduce observed records. The thickness of the layer has been adjusted through iterative analysis. The final result is found to have good agreement with the results from other physical explorations; e.g. gravity anomaly. We are planning to make long-period (about 2 to 10 sec or longer) simulations of ground motion due to the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake with the 3-D velocity structure model. As the first step, we will simulate the observed ground motions of the latest event occurred in 1946 to check the source model and newly developed velocity structure model. This project is partly supported by Integrated Research Project for Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The ground motion data used in this study were provided by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Disaster (NIED). Figure 1 An example of cross section with P wave velocities Figure 2 Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms due to a small earthquake

A case study of the Weather Research and Forecasting model applied to the Joint Urban 2003 tracer field experiment. Part 2: Gas tracer dispersion

DOE PAGES

Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; ...

2016-07-28

Here, the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex (QUIC) atmospheric transport, and dispersion modelling, system was evaluated against the Joint Urban 2003 tracer-gas measurements. This was done using the wind and turbulence fields computed by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We compare the simulated and observed plume transport when using WRF-model-simulated wind fields, and local on-site wind measurements. Degradation of the WRF-model-based plume simulations was cased by errors in the simulated wind direction, and limitations in reproducing the small-scale wind-field variability. We explore two methods for importing turbulence from the WRF model simulations into the QUIC system. The firstmore » method uses parametrized turbulence profiles computed from WRF-model-computed boundary-layer similarity parameters; and the second method directly imports turbulent kinetic energy from the WRF model. Using the WRF model’s Mellor-Yamada-Janjic boundary-layer scheme, the parametrized turbulence profiles and the direct import of turbulent kinetic energy were found to overpredict and underpredict the observed turbulence quantities, respectively. Near-source building effects were found to propagate several km downwind. These building effects and the temporal/spatial variations in the observed wind field were often found to have a stronger influence over the lateral and vertical plume spread than the intensity of turbulence. Correcting the WRF model wind directions using a single observational location improved the performance of the WRF-model-based simulations, but using the spatially-varying flow fields generated from multiple observation profiles generally provided the best performance.« less

A case study of the Weather Research and Forecasting model applied to the Joint Urban 2003 tracer field experiment. Part 2: Gas tracer dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.

Here, the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex (QUIC) atmospheric transport, and dispersion modelling, system was evaluated against the Joint Urban 2003 tracer-gas measurements. This was done using the wind and turbulence fields computed by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We compare the simulated and observed plume transport when using WRF-model-simulated wind fields, and local on-site wind measurements. Degradation of the WRF-model-based plume simulations was cased by errors in the simulated wind direction, and limitations in reproducing the small-scale wind-field variability. We explore two methods for importing turbulence from the WRF model simulations into the QUIC system. The firstmore » method uses parametrized turbulence profiles computed from WRF-model-computed boundary-layer similarity parameters; and the second method directly imports turbulent kinetic energy from the WRF model. Using the WRF model’s Mellor-Yamada-Janjic boundary-layer scheme, the parametrized turbulence profiles and the direct import of turbulent kinetic energy were found to overpredict and underpredict the observed turbulence quantities, respectively. Near-source building effects were found to propagate several km downwind. These building effects and the temporal/spatial variations in the observed wind field were often found to have a stronger influence over the lateral and vertical plume spread than the intensity of turbulence. Correcting the WRF model wind directions using a single observational location improved the performance of the WRF-model-based simulations, but using the spatially-varying flow fields generated from multiple observation profiles generally provided the best performance.« less

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

Extended Magnetohydrodynamics with Embedded Particle-in-Cell Simulation of Ganymede's Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toth, Gabor; Jia, Xianzhe; Markidis, Stefano; Peng, Ivy Bo; Chen, Yuxi; Daldorff, Lars K. S.; Tenishev, Valeriy M.; Borovikov, Dmitry; Haiducek, John D.; Gombosi, Tamas I.;

Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions along the Gulf Stream: An Eddy-Resolving and Convection-Permitting Coupled Regional Climate Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, J. S.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2017-12-01

Frontal and mesoscale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream (GS) during boreal winter are investigated using an eddy-resolving and convection-permitting coupled regional climate model with atmospheric grid resolutions varying from meso-β (27-km) to -r (9-km and 3-km nest) scales in WRF and a 9-km ocean model (ROMS) that explicitly resolves the ocean mesoscale eddies across the North Atlantic basin. The mesoscale wavenumber energy spectra for the simulated surface wind stress and SST demonstrate good agreement with the observed spectra calculated from the observational QuikSCAT and AMSR-E datasets, suggesting that the model well captures the energy cascade of the mesoscale eddies in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Intercomparison among different resolution simulations indicates that after three months of integration the simulated GS path tends to overshoot beyond the separation point in the 27-km WRF coupled experiments than the observed climatological path of the GS, whereas the 3-km nested and 9-km WRF coupled simulations realistically simulate GS separation. The GS overshoot in 27-km WRF coupled simulations is accompanied with a significant SST warming bias to the north of the GS extension. Such biases are associated with the deficiency of wind stress-SST coupling strengths simulated by the coupled model with a coarser resolution in WRF. It is found that the model at 27-km grid spacing can approximately simulate 72% (62%) of the observed mean coupling strength between surface wind stress curl (divergence) and crosswind (downwind) SST gradient while by increasing the WRF resolutions to 9 km or 3 km the coupled model can much better capture the observed coupling strengths.

Comparison of Thunderstorm Simulations from WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW Models over East Indian Region

PubMed Central

Litta, A. J.; Mary Ididcula, Sumam; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.

2012-01-01

The thunderstorms are typical mesoscale systems dominated by intense convection. Mesoscale models are essential for the accurate prediction of such high-impact weather events. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the simulated results of three thunderstorm events using NMM and ARW model core of WRF system and validated the model results with observations. Both models performed well in capturing stability indices which are indicators of severe convective activity. Comparison of model-simulated radar reflectivity imageries with observations revealed that NMM model has simulated well the propagation of the squall line, while the squall line movement was slow in ARW. From the model-simulated spatial plots of cloud top temperature, we can see that NMM model has better captured the genesis, intensification, and propagation of thunder squall than ARW model. The statistical analysis of rainfall indicates the better performance of NMM than ARW. Comparison of model-simulated thunderstorm affected parameters with that of the observed showed that NMM has performed better than ARW in capturing the sharp rise in humidity and drop in temperature. This suggests that NMM model has the potential to provide unique and valuable information for severe thunderstorm forecasters over east Indian region. PMID:22645480

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

An assessment of geographical distribution of different plant functional types over North America simulated using the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Rudra K.; Arora, Vivek K.; Melton, Joe R.; Sushama, Laxmi

2017-10-01

The performance of the competition module of the CLASS-CTEM (Canadian Land Surface Scheme and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model) modelling framework is assessed at 1° spatial resolution over North America by comparing the simulated geographical distribution of its plant functional types (PFTs) with two observation-based estimates. The model successfully reproduces the broad geographical distribution of trees, grasses and bare ground although limitations remain. In particular, compared to the two observation-based estimates, the simulated fractional vegetation coverage is lower in the arid southwest North American region and higher in the Arctic region. The lower-than-observed simulated vegetation coverage in the southwest region is attributed to lack of representation of shrubs in the model and plausible errors in the observation-based data sets. The observation-based data indicate vegetation fractional coverage of more than 60 % in this arid region, despite only 200-300 mm of precipitation that the region receives annually, and observation-based leaf area index (LAI) values in the region are lower than one. The higher-than-observed vegetation fractional coverage in the Arctic is likely due to the lack of representation of moss and lichen PFTs and also likely because of inadequate representation of permafrost in the model as a result of which the C3 grass PFT performs overly well in the region. The model generally reproduces the broad spatial distribution and the total area covered by the two primary tree PFTs (needleleaf evergreen trees, NDL-EVG; and broadleaf cold deciduous trees, BDL-DCD-CLD) reasonably well. The simulated fractional coverage of tree PFTs increases after the 1960s in response to the CO2 fertilization effect and climate warming. Differences between observed and simulated PFT coverages highlight model limitations and suggest that the inclusion of shrubs, and moss and lichen PFTs, and an adequate representation of permafrost will help improve model performance.

Simulation and analysis of a model dinoflagellate predator-prey system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, M. J.; Antonelli, T.; Coyne, K. J.; Rossi, L. F.

2015-12-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a model dinoflagellate predator-prey system and uses simulations to validate theoretical and experimental studies. A simple model for predator-prey interactions is derived by drawing upon analogies from chemical kinetics. This model is then modified to account for inefficiencies in predation. Simulation results are shown to closely match the model predictions. Additional simulations are then run which are based on experimental observations of predatory dinoflagellate behavior, and this study specifically investigates how the predatory dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum uses toxins to immobilize its prey and increase its feeding rate. These simulations account for complex dynamics that were not included in the basic models, and the results from these computational simulations closely match the experimentally observed predatory behavior of K. veneficum and reinforce the notion that predatory dinoflagellates utilize toxins to increase their feeding rate.

Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

Evaluating WRF-Chem multi-scale model in simulating aerosol radiative properties over the tropics – A case study over India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seethala, C.; Pandithurai, G.; Fast, Jerome D.

We utilized WRF-Chem multi-scale model to simulate the regional distribution of aerosols, optical properties and its effect on radiation over India for a winter month. The model is evaluated using measurements obtained from upper-air soundings, AERONET sun photometers, various satellite instruments, and pyranometers operated by the Indian Meteorological Department. The simulated downward shortwave flux was overestimated when the effect of aerosols on radiation and clouds was neglected. Downward shortwave radiation from a simulation that included aerosol-radiation interaction processes was 5 to 25 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations, while a simulation that included aerosol-cloud interaction processes were another 1 tomore » 20 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations. For the few observations available, the model usually underestimated particulate concentration. This is likely due to turbulent mixing, transport errors and the lack of secondary organic aerosol treatment in the model. The model efficiently captured the broad regional hotspots such as high aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic basin as well as the northwestern and southern part of India. The regional distribution of aerosol optical depth compares well with AVHRR aerosol optical depth and the TOMS aerosol index. The magnitude and wavelength-dependence of simulated aerosol optical depth was also similar to the AERONET observations across India. Differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglected aerosol-radiation interactions were as high as -25 Wm{sup -2}, while differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglect aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions were as high as -30 Wm{sup -2}. The spatial variations of these differences were also compared with AVHRR observation. This study suggests that the model is able to qualitatively simulate the impact of aerosols on radiation over India; however, additional measurements of particulate mass and composition are needed to fully evaluate whether the aerosol precursor emissions are adequate when simulating radiative forcing in the region.« less

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

Improving Hydrological Simulations by Incorporating GRACE Data for Parameter Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological model parameters are commonly calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the modeled hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. We constructed a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations, with the aim of improving the parameterizations of hydrological models. The multi-objective calibration scheme was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme, which is based only on streamflow observations. Two monthly hydrological models were employed on 22 Chinese catchments with different hydroclimatic conditions. The model evaluation was performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and evapotranspiraiton (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. In addition, the improvements of TWSC and ET simulations were more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints besides streamflow observations in the parameter estimation to improve the performances of hydrological models.

[Adaptability of APSIM model in Southwestern China: A case study of winter wheat in Chongqing City].

PubMed

Dai, Tong; Wang, Jing; He, Di; Zhang, Jian-ping; Wang, Na

2015-04-01

Field experimental data of winter wheat and parallel daily meteorological data at four typical stations in Chongqing City were used to calibrate and validate APSIM-wheat model and determine the genetic parameters for 12 varieties of winter wheat. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the simulated and observed growth periods from sowing to emergence, flowering and maturity of wheat. Root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between simulated and observed emergence, flowering and maturity were 0-3, 1-8, and 0-8 d, respectively. Normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSEs) between simulated and observed above-ground biomass for 12 study varieties were less than 30%. NRMSE between simulated and observed yields for 10 varieties out of 12 study varieties were less than 30%. APSIM-wheat model performed well in simulating phenology, aboveground biomass and yield of winter wheat in Chongqing City, which could provide a foundational support for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat production in the study area based on the model.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

2018-01-01

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

2017-10-01

Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

Evaluating simulated functional trait patterns and quantifying modelled trait diversity effects on simulated ecosystem fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.

2014-12-01

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically employ only a small set of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to represent the vast diversity of observed vegetation forms and functioning. There is growing evidence, however, that this abstraction may not adequately represent the observed variation in plant functional traits, which is thought to play an important role for many ecosystem functions and for ecosystem resilience to environmental change. The geographic distribution of PFTs in these models is also often based on empirical relationships between present-day climate and vegetation patterns. Projections of future climate change, however, point toward the possibility of novel regional climates, which could lead to no-analog vegetation compositions incompatible with the PFT paradigm. Here, we present results from the Jena Diversity-DGVM (JeDi-DGVM), a novel traits-based vegetation model, which simulates a large number of hypothetical plant growth strategies constrained by functional tradeoffs, thereby allowing for a more flexible temporal and spatial representation of the terrestrial biosphere. First, we compare simulated present-day geographical patterns of functional traits with empirical trait observations (in-situ and from airborne imaging spectroscopy). The observed trait patterns are then used to improve the tradeoff parameterizations of JeDi-DGVM. Finally, focusing primarily on the simulated leaf traits, we run the model with various amounts of trait diversity. We quantify the effects of these modeled biodiversity manipulations on simulated ecosystem fluxes and stocks for both present-day conditions and transient climate change scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the coarse treatment of plant functional traits by current PFT-based vegetation models may contribute substantial uncertainty regarding carbon-climate feedbacks. Further development of trait-based models and further investment in global in-situ and spectroscopic plant trait observations are needed.

Spatial characteristics of the tropical cloud systems: comparison between model simulation and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guang J.; Zurovac-Jevtic, Dance; Boer, Erwin R.

1999-10-01

A Lagrangian cloud classification algorithm is applied to the cloud fields in the tropical Pacific simulated by a high-resolution regional atmospheric model. The purpose of this work is to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed spatial characteristics of the tropical cloud systems. The cloud systems are broadly grouped into three categories: deep clouds, mid-level clouds and low clouds. The deep clouds are further divided into mesoscale convective systems and nonmesoscale convective systems. It is shown that the model is able to simulate the total cloud cover for each category reasonably well. However, when the cloud cover is broken down into contributions from cloud systems of different sizes, it is shown that the simulated cloud size distribution is biased toward large cloud systems, with contribution from relatively small cloud systems significantly under-represented in the model for both deep and mid-level clouds. The number distribution and area contribution to the cloud cover from mesoscale convective systems are very well simulated compared to the satellite observations, so are low clouds as well. The dependence of the cloud physical properties on cloud scale is examined. It is found that cloud liquid water path, rainfall, and ocean surface sensible and latent heat fluxes have a clear dependence on cloud types and scale. This is of particular interest to studies of the cloud effects on surface energy budget and hydrological cycle. The diurnal variation of the cloud population and area is also examined. The model exhibits a varying degree of success in simulating the diurnal variation of the cloud number and area. The observed early morning maximum cloud cover in deep convective cloud systems is qualitatively simulated. However, the afternoon secondary maximum is missing in the model simulation. The diurnal variation of the tropospheric temperature is well reproduced by the model while simulation of the diurnal variation of the moisture field is poor. The implication of this comparison between model simulation and observations on cloud parameterization is discussed.

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Celine; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Mears, Carl; Solomon, Susan; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Fyfe, John C.; Cole, Jason N.S.; Nazarenko, Larissa;

Insights into the use of time-lapse GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations of DNAPL migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, R.H.; Poeter, E.P.

2007-01-01

Perchloroethylene (PCE) saturations determined from GPR surveys were used as observations for inversion of multiphase flow simulations of a PCE injection experiment (Borden 9??m cell), allowing for the estimation of optimal bulk intrinsic permeability values. The resulting fit statistics and analysis of residuals (observed minus simulated PCE saturations) were used to improve the conceptual model. These improvements included adjustment of the elevation of a permeability contrast, use of the van Genuchten versus Brooks-Corey capillary pressure-saturation curve, and a weighting scheme to account for greater measurement error with larger saturation values. A limitation in determining PCE saturations through one-dimensional GPR modeling is non-uniqueness when multiple GPR parameters are unknown (i.e., permittivity, depth, and gain function). Site knowledge, fixing the gain function, and multiphase flow simulations assisted in evaluating non-unique conceptual models of PCE saturation, where depth and layering were reinterpreted to provide alternate conceptual models. Remaining bias in the residuals is attributed to the violation of assumptions in the one-dimensional GPR interpretation (which assumes flat, infinite, horizontal layering) resulting from multidimensional influences that were not included in the conceptual model. While the limitations and errors in using GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations are frustrating and difficult to quantify, simulation results indicate that the error and bias in the PCE saturation values are small enough to still provide reasonable optimal permeability values. The effort to improve model fit and reduce residual bias decreases simulation error even for an inversion based on biased observations and provides insight into alternate GPR data interpretations. Thus, this effort is warranted and provides information on bias in the observation data when this bias is otherwise difficult to assess. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann M.; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

2011-01-01

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Simulations and Characteristics of Large Solar Events Propagating Throughout the Heliosphere and Beyond (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, D. S.; Sun, W.; Detman, T. R.; Dryer, Ph D., M.; Intriligator, J.; Deehr, C. S.; Webber, W. R.; Gloeckler, G.; Miller, W. D.

2015-12-01

Large solar events can have severe adverse global impacts at Earth. These solar events also can propagate throughout the heliopshere and into the interstellar medium. We focus on the July 2012 and Halloween 2003 solar events. We simulate these events starting from the vicinity of the Sun at 2.5 Rs. We compare our three dimensional (3D) time-dependent simulations to available spacecraft (s/c) observations at 1 AU and beyond. Based on the comparisons of the predictions from our simulations with in-situ measurements we find that the effects of these large solar events can be observed in the outer heliosphere, the heliosheath, and even into the interstellar medium. We use two simulation models. The HAFSS (HAF Source Surface) model is a kinematic model. HHMS-PI (Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup protons) is a numerical magnetohydrodynamic solar wind (SW) simulation model. Both HHMS-PI and HAFSS are ideally suited for these analyses since starting at 2.5 Rs from the Sun they model the slowly evolving background SW and the impulsive, time-dependent events associated with solar activity. Our models naturally reproduce dynamic 3D spatially asymmetric effects observed throughout the heliosphere. Pre-existing SW background conditions have a strong influence on the propagation of shock waves from solar events. Time-dependence is a crucial aspect of interpreting s/c data. We show comparisons of our simulation results with STEREO A, ACE, Ulysses, and Voyager s/c observations.

Hydrologic modeling of two glaciated watersheds in Northeast Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srinivasan, M.S.; Hamlett, J.M.; Day, R.L.; Sams, J.I.; Petersen, G.W.

1998-01-01

A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 x 106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 x 106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36??106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82??106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, K.J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Use of High-Resolution Satellite Observations to Evaluate Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.

2007-12-01

The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.

Diagnostic Simulations of the Lunar Exosphere using Coma and Tail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dong Wook; Kim, Sang J.

2017-10-01

The characteristics of the lunar exosphere can be constrained by comparing simulated models with observational data of the coma and tail (Lee et al., JGR, 2011); and thus far a few independent approaches on this issue have been performed and presented in the literature. Since there are two-different observational constraints for the lunar exosphere, it is interesting to find the best exospheric model that can account for the observed characteristics of the coma and tail. Considering various initial conditions of different sources and space weather, we present preliminary time-dependent simulations between the initial and final stages of the development of the lunar tail. Based on an updated 3-D model, we are planning to conduct numerous simulations to constrain the best model parameters from the coma images obtained from coronagraph observations supported by a NASA monitoring program (Morgan, Killen, and Potter, AGU, 2015) and future tail data.

May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar

2018-02-01

Over the recent three decades sea surface temperate (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La Niña-like cooling. Based on the assumption of "perfect" models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observation. But the exact causes remain unclear. Recent studies have suggested that observed SST warming in the other two ocean basins in past decades and the thermostat mechanism in the Pacific in response to increased radiative forcing may also play an important role in driving this La Niña-like cooling. Here, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that common biases of current state-of-the-art climate models may deteriorate the models' ability and can also contribute to this multi-model simulations-observation discrepancy. Our results suggest that underestimated inter-basin warming contrast across the three tropical oceans, overestimated surface net heat flux and underestimated local SST-cloud negative feedback in the equatorial Pacific may favor an El Niño-like warming bias in the models. Effects of the three common model biases do not cancel one another and jointly explain 50% of the total variance of the discrepancies between the observation and individual models' ensemble mean simulations of the Pacific SST trend. Further efforts on reducing common model biases could help improve simulations of the externally forced climate trends and the multi-decadal climate fluctuations.

Evaluation of a Multi-Decadal Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone by Comparison with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Steenrod, Steven; Pawson, Steven

2003-01-01

One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

Improved simulation of group averaged CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-01-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single site reflect all underlying processes of various scales that usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the site due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in models. In this article we group site observations of multiple stations according to atmospheric mixing regimes and surface characteristics. The group averaged values of CO2 concentration from model simulations and observations are used to evaluate the regional model results. Using the group averaged measurements of CO2 reduces the noise of individual stations. The difference of group averaged values between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainties of the large scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the group averaged values between model results with two biospheric fluxes from the model Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and observations to evaluate the regional model results. Results show that the modeling group averaged values of CO2 concentrations in all regions with fluxes from VEGAS have significant improvements for most regions. There is still large difference between two model results and observations for grouped average values in North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Tropics. This implies possible large uncertainties in the fluxes there.

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-96 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Kawa, S. R.

2000-01-01

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite; and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occulation instrument, on board the French Satellite Pour I'Observations de la Terre. Comparisons of the different data sets with the model simulation are shown to provide complementary information and a consistent view of the ozone evolution. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be sensitive to the ozone vertical gradient and the model vertical transport, and only weakly sensitive to the model photochemistry. The most consistent comparison between observed and modeled ozone evolution is found for a simulation where the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. Diabatic trajectory calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty due to vertical advection quantitatively. The transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The model ozone evolution during December and January is broadly consistent with the observations when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Internal Interdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Control Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, A. H.; Mann, M. E.; Frankcombe, L. M.; England, M. H.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.

2015-12-01

Here we make use of control simulations from the CMIP5 models to quantify the amplitude of the interdecadal internal variability component in Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature. We compare against estimates derived from observations using a semi-empirical approach wherein the forced component as estimated using CMIP5 historical simulations is removed to yield an estimate of the residual, internal variability. While the observational estimates are largely consistent with those derived from the control simulations for both basins and the Northern Hemisphere, they lie in the upper range of the model distributions, suggesting the possibility of differences between the amplitudes of observed and modeled variability. We comment on some possible reasons for the disparity.

Lunar gravitational field estimation and the effects of mismodeling upon lunar satellite orbit prediction. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, John H.

1993-01-01

Lunar spherical harmonic gravity coefficients are estimated from simulated observations of a near-circular low altitude polar orbiter disturbed by lunar mascons. Lunar gravity sensing missions using earth-based nearside observations with and without satellite-based far-side observations are simulated and least squares maximum likelihood estimates are developed for spherical harmonic expansion fit models. Simulations and parameter estimations are performed by a modified version of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Planetary Ephemeris Program. Two different lunar spacecraft mission phases are simulated to evaluate the estimated fit models. Results for predicting state covariances one orbit ahead are presented along with the state errors resulting from the mismodeled gravity field. The position errors from planning a lunar landing maneuver with a mismodeled gravity field are also presented. These simulations clearly demonstrate the need to include observations of satellite motion over the far side in estimating the lunar gravity field. The simulations also illustrate that the eighth degree and order expansions used in the simulated fits were unable to adequately model lunar mascons.

Sensitivity of fire behavior simulations to fuel model variations

Treesearch

Lucy A. Salazar

1985-01-01

Stylized fuel models, or numerical descriptions of fuel arrays, are used as inputs to fire behavior simulation models. These fuel models are often chosen on the basis of generalized fuel descriptions, which are related to field observations. Site-specific observations of fuels or fire behavior in the field are not readily available or necessary for most fire management...

Microwave and infrared simulations of an intense convective system and comparison with aircraft observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prasad, N.; Yeh, Hwa-Young M.; Adler, Robert F.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1995-01-01

A three-dimensional cloud model, radiative transfer model-based simulation system is tested and validated against the aircraft-based radiance observations of an intense convective system in southeastern Virginia on 29 June 1986 during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment. NASA's ER-2, a high-altitude research aircraft with a complement of radiometers operating at 11-micrometer infrared channel and 18-, 37-, 92-, and 183-GHz microwave channels provided data for this study. The cloud model successfully simulated the cloud system with regard to aircraft- and radar-observed cloud-top heights and diameters and with regard to radar-observed reflectivity structure. For the simulation time found to correspond best with the aircraft- and radar-observed structure, brightness temperatures T(sub b) are simulated and compared with observations for all the microwave frequencies along with the 11-micrometer infrared channel. Radiance calculations at the various frequencies correspond well with the aircraft observations in the areas of deep convection. The clustering of 37-147-GHz T(sub b) observations and the isolation of the 18-GHz values over the convective cores are well simulated by the model. The radiative transfer model, in general, is able to simulate the observations reasonably well from 18 GHz through 174 GHz within all convective areas of the cloud system. When the aircraft-observed 18- and 37-GHz, and 90- and 174-GHz T(sub b) are plotted against each other, the relationships have a gradual difference in the slope due to the differences in the ice particle size in the convective and more stratiform areas of the cloud. The model is able to capture these differences observed by the aircraft. Brightness temperature-rain rate relationships compare reasonably well with the aircraft observations in terms of the slope of the relationship. The model calculations are also extended to select high-frequency channels at 220, 340, and 400 GHz to simulate the Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer aircraft instrument to be flown in the near future. All three of these frequencies are able to discriminate the convective and anvil portions of the system, providing useful information similar to that from the frequencies below 183 GHz but with potentially enhanced spatial resolution from a satellite platform. In thin clouds, the dominant effect of water vapor is seen at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. In thick cloudy areas, the scattering effect is dominant at 90 and 220 GHz, while the overlaying water vapor can attenuate at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. All frequencies (90-400 GHz) show strong signatures in the core.

LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Implementation Strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson Jr., WI; Vogelmann, AM

2015-09-01

This document illustrates the design of the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) workflow to provide a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to augment the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s high-density observations. LASSO will create a powerful new capability for furthering ARM’s mission to advance understanding of cloud, radiation, aerosol, and land-surface processes. The combined observational and modeling elements will enable a new level of scientific inquiry by connecting processes and context to observations and providing needed statistics for details that cannot be measured. The result will be improved process understandingmore » that facilitates concomitant improvements in climate model parameterizations. The initial LASSO implementation will be for ARM’s Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma and will focus on shallow convection, which is poorly simulated by climate models due in part to clouds’ typically small spatial scale compared to model grid spacing, and because the convection involves complicated interactions of microphysical and boundary layer processes.« less

[Simulation of water and carbon fluxes in harvard forest area based on data assimilation method].

PubMed

Zhang, Ting-Long; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Zhang, Lei

2013-10-01

Model simulation and in situ observation are the two most important means in studying the water and carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, but have their own advantages and shortcomings. To combine these two means would help to reflect the dynamic changes of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes more accurately. Data assimilation provides an effective way to integrate the model simulation and in situ observation. Based on the observation data from the Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site (EMS), and by using ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm, this paper assimilated the field measured LAI and remote sensing LAI into the Biome-BGC model to simulate the water and carbon fluxes in Harvard forest area. As compared with the original model simulated without data assimilation, the improved Biome-BGC model with the assimilation of the field measured LAI in 1998, 1999, and 2006 increased the coefficient of determination R2 between model simulation and flux observation for the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration by 8.4% and 10.6%, decreased the sum of absolute error (SAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of NEE by 17.7% and 21.2%, and decreased the SAE and RMSE of the evapotranspiration by 26. 8% and 28.3%, respectively. After assimilated the MODIS LAI products of 2000-2004 into the improved Biome-BGC model, the R2 between simulated and observed results of NEE and evapotranspiration was increased by 7.8% and 4.7%, the SAE and RMSE of NEE were decreased by 21.9% and 26.3%, and the SAE and RMSE of evapotranspiration were decreased by 24.5% and 25.5%, respectively. It was suggested that the simulation accuracy of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes could be effectively improved if the field measured LAI or remote sensing LAI was integrated into the model.

Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne; Kumar, Sujay; Xie, Shaocheng; Eastman, Joseph L.; Shie, Chung-Lin;

Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Vinnikov, Konstantin YA.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Speranskaya, Nina A.; Xue, Yongkang

1995-01-01

Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which would have large effects on GCM simulations.

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawa, A. W.; Drdla, K.; Fromm, M.; Bokarius, K.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Comparison of AERMOD and CALPUFF models for simulating SO2 concentrations in a gas refinery.

PubMed

Atabi, Farideh; Jafarigol, Farzaneh; Moattar, Faramarz; Nouri, Jafar

2016-09-01

In this study, concentration of SO2 from a gas refinery located in complex terrain was calculated by the steady-state, AERMOD model, and nonsteady-state CALPUFF model. First, in four seasons, SO2 concentrations emitted from 16 refinery stacks, in nine receptors, were obtained by field measurements, and then the performance of both models was evaluated. Then, the simulated results for SO2 ambient concentrations made by each model were compared with the results of the observed concentrations, and model results were compared among themselves. The evaluation of the two models to simulate SO2 concentrations was based on the statistical analysis and Q-Q plots. Review of statistical parameters and Q-Q plots has shown that, according to the evaluation of estimations made, performance of both models to simulate the concentration of SO2 in the region can be considered acceptable. The results showed the AERMOD composite ratio between simulated values made by models and the observed values in various receptors for all four average times is 0.72, whereas CALPUFF's ratio is 0.89. However, in the complex conditions of topography, CALPUFF offers better agreement with the observed concentrations.

Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: limitations and implications of model calibration using eddy flux observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

2010-07-01

Terrestrial biosphere models show large differences when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these differences is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of the condition of terrestrial ecosystems and future climate change. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of their carbon budgets, we investigated the utility of the eddy flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine - based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four eddy flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and a modified model (based on model parameter tuning using eddy flux data). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using eddy flux data (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs. This study demonstrated that careful validation and calibration of models with available eddy flux data reduced model-by-model differences. Yet, site history, analysis of model structure changes, and more objective procedure of model calibration should be included in the further analysis.

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

Simulating CO2 profiles using NIES TM and comparison with HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, C.; Maksyutov, S.; Belikov, D.; Takagi, H.; Shu, J.

2015-03-01

We present a study on validation of the National Institute for Environmental Studies Transport Model (NIES TM) by comparing to observed vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2. The model uses a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain-following and isentropic parts switched smoothly in the stratosphere. The model transport is driven by reanalyzed meteorological fields and designed to simulate seasonal and diurnal cycles, synoptic variations, and spatial distributions of atmospheric chemical constituents in the troposphere. The model simulations were run for biosphere, fossil fuel, air-ocean exchange, biomass burning and inverse correction fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) by GOSAT Level 4 product. We compared the NIES TM simulated fluxes with data from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) Merged 10 s Meteorology, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Aerosol Data, including HIPPO-1, HIPPO-2 and HIPPO-3 from 128.0° E to -84.0° W, and 87.0° N to -67.2° S. The simulation results were compared with CO2 observations made in January and November 2009, and March and April 2010. The analysis attests that the model is good enough to simulate vertical profiles with errors generally within 1-2 ppmv, except for the lower stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes.

Uncertainty analysis of atmospheric deposition simulation of radiocesium and radioiodine from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morino, Yu; Ohara, Toshimasa; Yumimoto, Keiya

2014-05-01

Chemical transport models (CTM) played key roles in understanding the atmospheric behaviors and deposition patterns of radioactive materials emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) after the nuclear accident that accompanied the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. In this study, we assessed uncertainties of atmospheric simulation by comparing observed and simulated deposition of radiocesium (137Cs) and radioiodine (131I). Airborne monitoring survey data were used to assess the model performance of 137Cs deposition patterns. We found that simulation using emissions estimated with a regional-scale (~500 km) CTM better reproduced the observed 137Cs deposition pattern in eastern Japan than simulation using emissions estimated with local-scale (~50 km) or global-scale CTM. In addition, we estimated the emission amount of 137Cs from FDNPP by combining a CTM, a priori source term, and observed deposition data. This is the first use of airborne survey data of 137Cs deposition (more than 16,000 data points) as the observational constraints in inverse modeling. The model simulation driven by a posteriori source term achieved better agreements with 137Cs depositions measured by aircraft survey and at in-situ stations over eastern Japan. Wet deposition module was also evaluated. Simulation using a process-based wet deposition module reproduced the observations well, whereas simulation using scavenging coefficients showed large uncertainties associated with empirical parameters. The best-available simulation reproduced the observed 137Cs deposition rates in high-deposition areas (≥10 kBq m-2) within one order of magnitude. Recently, 131I deposition map was released and helped to evaluate model performance of 131I deposition patterns. Observed 131I/137Cs deposition ratio is higher in areas southwest of FDNPP than northwest of FDNPP, and this behavior was roughly reproduced by a CTM if we assume that released 131I is more in gas phase than particles. Analysis of 131I deposition gives us better constraint for the atmospheric simulation of 131I, which is important in assessing public radiation exposure.

Improving Simulations of Extreme Flows by Coupling a Physically-based Hydrologic Model with a Machine Learning Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, K.; Islam, A. S.; Khan, M. J. U.; Das, M. K.

2017-12-01

With the large number of hydrologic models presently available along with the global weather and geographic datasets, streamflows of almost any river in the world can be easily modeled. And if a reasonable amount of observed data from that river is available, then simulations of high accuracy can sometimes be performed after calibrating the model parameters against those observed data through inverse modeling. Although such calibrated models can succeed in simulating the general trend or mean of the observed flows very well, more often than not they fail to adequately simulate the extreme flows. This causes difficulty in tasks such as generating reliable projections of future changes in extreme flows due to climate change, which is obviously an important task due to floods and droughts being closely connected to people's lives and livelihoods. We propose an approach where the outputs of a physically-based hydrologic model are used as an input to a machine learning model to try and better simulate the extreme flows. To demonstrate this offline-coupling approach, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the physically-based hydrologic model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the machine learning model and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system as the study area. The GBM river system, located in South Asia, is the third largest in the world in terms of freshwater generated and forms the largest delta in the world. The flows of the GBM rivers were simulated separately in order to test the performance of this proposed approach in accurately simulating the extreme flows generated by different basins that vary in size, climate, hydrology and anthropogenic intervention on stream networks. Results show that by post-processing the simulated flows of the SWAT models with ANN models, simulations of extreme flows can be significantly improved. The mean absolute errors in simulating annual maximum/minimum daily flows were minimized from 4967 cusecs to 1294 cusecs for Ganges, from 5695 cusecs to 2115 cusecs for Brahmaputra and from 689 cusecs to 321 cusecs for Meghna. Using this approach, simulations of hydrologic variables other than streamflow can also be improved given that a decent amount of observed data for that variable is available.

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1997-01-01

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

Bayesian Techniques for Comparing Time-dependent GRMHD Simulations to Variable Event Horizon Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore themore » robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.« less

Consistency Between Convection Allowing Model Output and Passive Microwave Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bytheway, J. L.; Kummerow, C. D.

2018-01-01

Observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite were used along with precipitation forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to assess and interpret differences between observed and modeled storms. Using a feature-based approach, precipitating objects were identified in both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multisensor precipitation product and HRRR forecast at lead times of 1, 2, and 3 h at valid times corresponding to GPM overpasses. Precipitating objects were selected for further study if (a) the observed feature occurred entirely within the swath of the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and (b) the HRRR model predicted it at all three forecast lead times. Output from the HRRR model was used to simulate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs), which were compared to those observed by the GMI. Simulated Tbs were found to have biases at both the warm and cold ends of the distribution, corresponding to the stratiform/anvil and convective areas of the storms, respectively. Several experiments altered both the simulation microphysics and hydrometeor classification in order to evaluate potential shortcomings in the model's representation of precipitating clouds. In general, inconsistencies between observed and simulated brightness temperatures were most improved when transferring snow water content to supercooled liquid hydrometeor classes.

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, E. L.; Jackman, C. H.; Stolarski, R. S.; Considine, D. B.

1998-01-01

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. As such, this scheme utilizes significantly more information compared to our previous algorithm which was based only on zonal mean temperatures and heating rates. The new model transport captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed in long lived tracers, such as: isolation of the tropics and the southern hemisphere winter polar vortex; the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes; the latitudinal and seasonal variations of total ozone; and the seasonal variations of mesospheric H2O. The model also indicates a double peaked structure in methane associated with the semiannual oscillation in the tropical upper stratosphere. This feature is similar in phase but is significantly weaker in amplitude compared to the observations. The model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 are in good agreement with observations, both in simulating the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also find mostly good agreement between modeled and observed age of air determined from SF6 outside of the northern hemisphere polar vortex. However, observations inside the vortex reveal significantly older air compared to the model. This is consistent with the model deficiencies in simulating CH4 in the northern hemisphere winter high latitudes and illustrates the limitations of the current climatological zonal mean model formulation. The propagation of seasonal signals in water vapor and CO2 in the lower stratosphere showed general agreement in phase, and the model qualitatively captured the observed amplitude decrease in CO2 from the tropics to midlatitudes. However, the simulated seasonal amplitudes were attenuated too rapidly with altitude in the tropics. Overall, the simulations with the new transport formulation are in substantially better agreement with observations compared with our previous model transport.

Evaluating litter decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics in earth system models: contrasting analysis of long-term litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Wieder, W. R.

2012-12-01

Decomposition is a large term in the global carbon budget, but models of the earth system that simulate carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are largely untested with respect to litter decomposition. Here, we demonstrate a protocol to document model performance with respect to both long-term (10 year) litter decomposition and steady-state soil carbon stocks. First, we test the soil organic matter parameterization of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model, with data from the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET). The LIDET dataset is a 10-year study of litter decomposition at multiple sites across North America and Central America. We show results for 10-year litter decomposition simulations compared with LIDET for 9 litter types and 20 sites in tundra, grassland, and boreal, conifer, deciduous, and tropical forest biomes. We show additional simulations with DAYCENT, a version of the CENTURY model, to ask how well an established ecosystem model matches the observations. The results reveal large discrepancy between the laboratory microcosm studies used to parameterize the CLM4 litter decomposition and the LIDET field study. Simulated carbon loss is more rapid than the observations across all sites, despite using the LIDET-provided climatic decomposition index to constrain temperature and moisture effects on decomposition. Nitrogen immobilization is similarly biased high. Closer agreement with the observations requires much lower decomposition rates, obtained with the assumption that nitrogen severely limits decomposition. DAYCENT better replicates the observations, for both carbon mass remaining and nitrogen, without requirement for nitrogen limitation of decomposition. Second, we compare global observationally-based datasets of soil carbon with simulated steady-state soil carbon stocks for both models. The models simulations were forced with observationally-based estimates of annual litterfall and model-derived climatic decomposition index. While comparison with the LIDET 10-year litterbag study reveals sharp contrasts between CLM4 and DAYCENT, simulations of steady-state soil carbon show less difference between models. Both CLM4 and DAYCENT significantly underestimate soil carbon. Sensitivity analyses highlight causes of the low soil carbon bias. The terrestrial biogeochemistry of earth system models must be critically tested with observations, and the consequences of particular model choices must be documented. Long-term litter decomposition experiments such as LIDET provide a real-world process-oriented benchmark to evaluate models and can critically inform model development. Analysis of steady-state soil carbon estimates reveal additional, but here different, inferences about model performance.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) Investigating the OMI Aerosol Products Using Simulated Aerosol and Atmospheric Fields from the NASA GEOS-5 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colarco, P. R.; Gasso, S.; Jethva, H. T.; Buchard, V.; Ahn, C.; Torres, O.; daSilva, A.

2016-12-01

Output from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model is used to simulate the top-of-atmosphere 354 and 388 nm radiances observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura spacecraft. The principle purpose of developing this simulator tool is to compute from the modeled fields the so-called OMI Aerosol Index (AI), which is a more fundamental retrieval product than higher level products such as the aerosol optical depth (AOD) or absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD). This lays the groundwork for eventually developing a capability to assimilate either the OMI AI or its radiances, which would provide further constraint on aerosol loading and absorption properties for global models. We extend the use of the simulator capability to understand the nature of the OMI aerosol retrieval algorithms themselves in an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The simulated radiances are used to calculate the AI from the modeled fields. These radiances are also provided to the OMI aerosol algorithms, which return their own retrievals of the AI, AOD, and AAOD. Our assessment reveals that the OMI-retrieved AI can be mostly harmonized with the model-derived AI given the same radiances provided a common surface pressure field is assumed. This is important because the operational OMI algorithms presently assume a fixed pressure field, while the contribution of molecular scattering to the actual OMI signal in fact responds to the actual atmospheric pressure profile, which is accounted for in our OSSE by using GEOS-5 produced atmospheric reanalyses. Other differences between the model and OMI AI are discussed, and we present a preliminary assessment of the OMI AOD and AAOD products with respect to the known inputs from the GEOS-5 simulation.

Evaluating hourly rainfall characteristics over the U.S. Great Plains in dynamically downscaled climate model simulations using NASA-Unified WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Huikyo; Waliser, Duane E.; Ferraro, Robert; Iguchi, Takamichi; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Tian, Baijun; Loikith, Paul C.; Wright, Daniel B.

2017-07-01

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between duration and peak intensity of precipitation events over the Great Plains in summer. We calculated a JPDF for each data set and the overlapping area between observed and simulated JPDFs to measure the similarity between the two JPDFs. Comparison of the diurnal precipitation cycles between observations and simulations does not reveal the added value of high-resolution simulations. However, the performance of NU-WRF simulations measured by the JPDF metric strongly depends on horizontal resolution. The simulation with the highest resolution of 4 km shows the best agreement with the observations in simulating duration and intensity of wet spells. Spectral nudging does not affect the JPDF significantly. The effect of cumulus parameterizations on the JPDFs is considerable but smaller than that of horizontal resolution. The simulations with lower resolutions of 12 and 24 km show reasonable agreement but only with the high-resolution observational data that are aggregated into coarse resolution and spatially averaged.

Constraining ammonia dairy emissions during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California: surface and airborne observation comparisons with CMAQ simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. J.; Liu, Z.; Sun, K.; Tao, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Bambha, R.; Michelsen, H. A.; Zondlo, M. A.

2014-12-01

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain in current bottom-up inventories. Ammonium nitrate is a dominant component of fine aerosols in agricultural regions such as the Central Valley of California, especially during winter. Recent high resolution regional modeling efforts in this region have found significant ammonium nitrate and gas-phase NH3 biases during summer. We compare spatially-resolved surface and boundary layer gas-phase NH3 observations during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California with Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model simulations driven by the EPA NEI 2008 inventory to constrain wintertime NH3 model biases. We evaluate model performance with respect to aerosol partitioning, mixing and deposition to constrain contributions to modeled NH3 concentration biases in the Central Valley Tulare dairy region. Ammonia measurements performed with an open-path mobile platform on a vehicle are gridded to 4 km resolution hourly background concentrations. A peak detection algorithm is applied to remove local feedlot emission peaks. Aircraft NH3, NH4+ and NO3- observations are also compared with simulations extracted along the flight tracks. We find NH3 background concentrations in the dairy region are underestimated by three to five times during winter and NH3 simulations are moderately correlated with observations (r = 0.36). Although model simulations capture NH3 enhancements in the dairy region, these simulations are biased low by 30-60 ppbv NH3. Aerosol NH4+ and NO3- are also biased low in CMAQ by three and four times respectively. Unlike gas-phase NH3, CMAQ simulations do not capture typical NH4+ or NO3- enhancements observed in the dairy region. In contrast, boundary layer height simulations agree well with observations within 13%. We also address observational constraints on simulated NH3 deposition fluxes. These comparisons suggest that NEI 2008 wintertime dairy emissions are underestimated by a factor of three to five. We test sensitivity to emissions by increasing the NEI 2008 NH3 emissions uniformly across the dairy region and evaluate the impact on modeled concentrations. These results are applicable to improving predictions of ammoniated aerosol loading and highlight the value of mobile platform spatial NH3 measurements to constrain emission inventories.

Model calibration and issues related to validation, sensitivity analysis, post-audit, uncertainty evaluation and assessment of prediction data needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2007-01-01

When simulating natural and engineered groundwater flow and transport systems, one objective is to produce a model that accurately represents important aspects of the true system. However, using direct measurements of system characteristics, such as hydraulic conductivity, to construct a model often produces simulated values that poorly match observations of the system state, such as hydraulic heads, flows and concentrations (for example, Barth et al., 2001). This occurs because of inaccuracies in the direct measurements and because the measurements commonly characterize system properties at different scales from that of the model aspect to which they are applied. In these circumstances, the conservation of mass equations represented by flow and transport models can be used to test the applicability of the direct measurements, such as by comparing model simulated values to the system state observations. This comparison leads to calibrating the model, by adjusting the model construction and the system properties as represented by model parameter values, so that the model produces simulated values that reasonably match the observations.

Use of Advanced Meteorological Model Output for Coastal Ocean Modeling in Puget Sound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

2011-06-01

It is a great challenge to specify meteorological forcing in estuarine and coastal circulation modeling using observed data because of the lack of complete datasets. As a result of this limitation, water temperature is often not simulated in estuarine and coastal modeling, with the assumption that density-induced currents are generally dominated by salinity gradients. However, in many situations, temperature gradients could be sufficiently large to influence the baroclinic motion. In this paper, we present an approach to simulate water temperature using outputs from advanced meteorological models. This modeling approach was applied to simulate annual variations of water temperatures of Pugetmore » Sound, a fjordal estuary in the Pacific Northwest of USA. Meteorological parameters from North American Region Re-analysis (NARR) model outputs were evaluated with comparisons to observed data at real-time meteorological stations. Model results demonstrated that NARR outputs can be used to drive coastal ocean models for realistic simulations of long-term water-temperature distributions in Puget Sound. Model results indicated that the net flux from NARR can be further improved with the additional information from real-time observations.« less

Thermospheric Mass Density Specification: Synthesis of Observations and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-21

Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) of the column-integrated ratio of atomic oxygen and molecular nitrogen. Note that OSSEs assimilate, for a given...realistic observing system, synthetically generated observational data often sampled from model simulation results, in place of actually observed values...and molecular oxygen mass mixing ratio). Note that in the TIEGCM the molecular nitrogen mass mixing ratio is specified so that the sum of mixing

Strategy for long-term 3D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, W.; Liu, Y.; Song, H.; Endo, S.

2011-12-01

Parametric representations of cloud/precipitation processes continue having to be adopted in climate simulations with increasingly higher spatial resolution or with emerging adaptive mesh framework; and it is only becoming more critical that such parameterizations have to be scale aware. Continuous cloud measurements at DOE's ARM sites have provided a strong observational basis for novel cloud parameterization research at various scales. Despite significant progress in our observational ability, there are important cloud-scale physical and dynamical quantities that are either not currently observable or insufficiently sampled. To complement the long-term ARM measurements, we have explored an optimal strategy to carry out long-term 3-D cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multi-domain nesting. The factors that are considered to have important influences on the simulated cloud fields include domain size, spatial resolution, model top, forcing data set, model physics and the growth of model errors. The hydrometeor advection that may play a significant role in hydrological process within the observational domain but is often lacking, and the limitations due to the constraint of domain-wide uniform forcing in conventional cloud system-resolving model simulations, are at least partly accounted for in our approach. Conventional and probabilistic verification approaches are employed first for selected cases to optimize the model's capability of faithfully reproducing the observed mean and statistical distributions of cloud-scale quantities. This then forms the basis of our setup for long-term cloud-resolving simulations over the ARM SGP site. The model results will facilitate parameterization research, as well as understanding and dissecting parameterization deficiencies in climate models.

Radon-222 as a test of convective transport in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, Daniel J.; Prather, Michael J.

1990-01-01

A three-dimensional tracer model based on the Goddard Institude of Space Studies GCM is used to simulate the distribution of Rn-222 over North America to test the ability of the model to describe the transport of pollutants in the boundary layer and the exchange of mass between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The model results are compared with surface observations from five sites in the U.S., showing that Rn-222 concentrations are primarily regulated by dry convection. The simulations show satisfactory agreement with observations although the model underpredicts observations at night and the simulated Rn-222 concentrations over the northeastern U.S. are too high in the spring and too low in the fall.

Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

2018-01-01

The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

Black carbon and trace gases over South Asia: Measurements and Regional Climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuyan, Pradip; Pathak, Binita; Parottil, Ajay

2016-07-01

Trace gases and aerosols are simulated with 50 km spatial resolution over South Asian CORDEX domain enclosing the Indian sub-continent and North-East India for the year 2012 using two regional climate models RegCM4 coupled with CLM4.5 and WRF-Chem 3.5. Both models are found to capture the seasonality in the simulated O3 and its precursors, NOx and CO and black carbon concentrations together with the meteorological variables over the Indian Subcontinent as well as over the sub-Himalayan North-Eastern region of India including Bangladesh. The model simulations are compared with the measurements made at Dibrugarh (27.3°N, 94.6°E, 111 m amsl). Both the models are found to capture the observed diurnal and seasonal variations in O3 concentrations with maximum in spring and minimum in monsoon, the correlation being better for WRF-Chem (R~0.77) than RegCM (R~0.54). Simulated NOx and CO is underestimated in all the seasons by both the models, the performance being better in the case of WRF-Chem. The observed difference may be contributed by the bias in the estimation of the O3 precursors NOx and CO in the emission inventories or the error in the simulation of the meteorological variables which influences O3 concentration in both the models. For example, in the pre-monsoon and winter season, the WRF-Chem model simulated shortwave flux overestimates the observation by ~500 Wm-2 while in the monsoon and post monsoon season, simulated shortwave flux is equivalent to the observation. The model predicts higher wind speed in all the seasons especially during night-time. In the post-monsoon and winter season, the simulated wind pattern is reverse to observation with daytime low and night-time high values. Rainfall is overestimated in all the seasons. RegCM-CLM4.5 is found to underestimate rainfall and other meteorological parameters. The WRF-Chem model closely captured the observed values of black carbon mass concentrations during pre-monsoon and summer monsoon seasons, but deviated significantly during the winter season. On the other hand RegCM-CLM4.5 underestimates BC throughout the year. This may be attributed to the inaccuracy in the emission inventories, where the small scale local burnings those generating black carbon over this region is not accounted for either by the satellite (due to detection limit) as well as in the emission inventories considered in the model. Thus further improvement in the emission inventories is recommended in RegCM-CLM4.5.

Explosive response model evaluation using the explosive H6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Gerrit T.; Burns, Joseph

2000-04-01

Reactive rate model parameters for a two term Lee Tarver [simplified ignition and growth (SIG)] model were obtained for the explosive H6 from modified gap test data. These model was used to perform simulations of the underwater sensitivity test (UST) using the CTH hydrocode. Reaction was predicted in the simulations for the same water gaps that reaction was observed in the UST. The expansions observed for the UST samples were not simulated correctly, and this is attributed to the density equilibrium conditions imposed between unreacted and reacted components in CTH for the Lee-Tarver model.

North American water availability under stress and duress: building understanding from simulations, observations and data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.; Atchley, A. L.; Hector, B.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the available freshwater for human use and ecological function depends on fluxes and stores that are hard to observe. Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest terrestrial flux of water behind precipitation but is observed with low spatial density. Likewise, groundwater is the largest freshwater store, yet is equally uncertain. The ability to upscale observations of these variables is an additional complication; point measurements are made at scales orders of magnitude smaller than remote sensing data products. Integrated hydrologic models that simulate continental extents at fine spatial resolution are now becoming an additional tool to constrain fluxes and address interconnections. For example, recent work has shown connections between water table depth and transpiration partitioning, and demonstrated the ability to reconcile point observations and large-scale inferences. Here we explore the dynamics of large hydrologic systems experiencing change and stress across continental North America using integrated model simulations, observations and data products. Simulations of aquifer depletion due to pervasive groundwater pumping diagnose both stream depletion and changes in ET. Simulations of systematic increases in temperature are used to understand the relationship between snowpack dynamics, surface and groundwater flow, ET and a changing climate. Remotely sensed products including the GRACE estimates of total storage change are downscaled using model simulations to better understand human impacts to the hydrologic cycle. These example applications motivate a path forward to better use simulations to understand water availability.

Insight into global trends in aerosol composition from 2005 to 2015 inferred from the OMI Ultraviolet Aerosol Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammer, Melanie S.; Martin, Randall V.; Li, Chi; Torres, Omar; Manning, Max; Boys, Brian L.

2018-06-01

Observations of aerosol scattering and absorption offer valuable information about aerosol composition. We apply a simulation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index (UVAI), a method of detecting aerosol absorption from satellite observations, to interpret UVAI values observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from 2005 to 2015 to understand global trends in aerosol composition. We conduct our simulation using the vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT with aerosol fields from the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the 2005-2015 trends in individual aerosol species from GEOS-Chem and apply these trends to the UVAI simulation to calculate the change in simulated UVAI due to the trends in individual aerosol species. We find that global trends in the UVAI are largely explained by trends in absorption by mineral dust, absorption by brown carbon, and scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol. Trends in absorption by mineral dust dominate the simulated UVAI trends over North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and Australia. The UVAI simulation resolves observed negative UVAI trends well over Australia, but underestimates positive UVAI trends over North Africa and Central Asia near the Aral Sea and underestimates negative UVAI trends over East Asia. We find evidence of an increasing dust source from the desiccating Aral Sea that may not be well represented by the current generation of models. Trends in absorption by brown carbon dominate the simulated UVAI trends over biomass burning regions. The UVAI simulation reproduces observed negative trends over central South America and West Africa, but underestimates observed UVAI trends over boreal forests. Trends in scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol dominate the simulated UVAI trends over the eastern United States and eastern India. The UVAI simulation slightly overestimates the observed positive UVAI trends over the eastern United States and underestimates the observed negative UVAI trends over India. Quantitative simulation of the OMI UVAI offers new insight into global trends in aerosol composition.

Modelling giant radio halos. Doctoral Thesis Award Lecture 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnert, J. M. F.

2013-06-01

We review models for giant radio halos in clusters of galaxies, with a focus on numerical and theoretical work. After summarising the most important observations of these objects, we present an introduction to the theoretical aspects of hadronic models. We compare these models with observations using simulations and find severe problems for hadronic models. We give a short introduction to reacceleration models and show results from the first simulation of CRe reacceleration in cluster mergers. We find that in-line with previous theoretical work, reacceleration models are able to elegantly explain main observables of giant radio halos.

TOWARDS ICE FORMATION CLOSURE IN MIXED-PHASE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS DURING ISDAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avramov, A.; Ackerman, A. S.; Fridlind, A. M.; van Diedenhoven, B.; Korolev, A. V.

2009-12-01

Mixed-phase stratus clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic during the winter and transition seasons. Despite their important role in various climate feedback mechanisms they are not well understood and are difficult to represent faithfully in cloud models. In particular, models of all types experience difficulties reproducing observed ice concentrations and liquid/ice water partitioning in these clouds. Previous studies have demonstrated that simulated ice concentrations and ice water content are critically dependent on ice nucleation modes and ice crystal habit assumed in simulations. In this study we use large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics to determine whether uncertainties in ice nucleus concentrations, ice nucleation mechanisms, ice crystal habits and large-scale forcing are sufficient to account for the difference between simulated and observed quantities. We present results of simulations of two case studies based on observations taken during the recent Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) on April 8 and 26, 2008. The model simulations are evaluated through extensive comparison with in-situ observations and ground-based remote sensing measurements.

Simulating the IPOD, East Asian summer monsoon, and their relationships in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Miao; Li, Jianping; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Xiaofan; Zheng, Jiayu

2018-03-01

This paper evaluates the simulation performance of the 37 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with respect to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indo-Pacific warm pool and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and also the interrelationships between them. The results show that the majority of the models are unable to accurately simulate the interannual variability and long-term trends of the EASM, and their simulations of the temporal and spatial variations of the IPOD are also limited. Further analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed EASM index (EASMI) is proportional to those between the simulated and observed IPOD index (IPODI); that is, if the models have skills to simulate one of them then they will likely generate good simulations of another. Based on the above relationship, this paper proposes a conditional multi-model ensemble method (CMME) that eliminates those models without capability to simulate the IPOD and EASM when calculating the multi-model ensemble (MME). The analysis shows that, compared with the MME, this CMME method can significantly improve the simulations of the spatial and temporal variations of both the IPOD and EASM as well as their interrelationship, suggesting the potential for the CMME approach to be used in place of the MME method.

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Huffman, George J.

2013-01-01

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Urban Summertime Ozone of China: Peak Ozone Hour and Nighttime Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

We investigate the observed diurnal cycle of summertime ozone in the cities of China using a regional chemical transport model. The simulated daytime ozone is in general agreement with the observations. Model simulations suggest that the ozone peak time and peak concentration are a function of NOx (NO + NO2) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The differences between simulated and observed ozone peak time and peak concentration in some regions can be applied to understand biases in the emission inventories. For example, the VOCs emissions are underestimated over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, and either NOx emissions are underestimated or VOC emissions are overestimated over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions. In contrast to the general good daytime ozone simulations, the simulated nighttime ozone has a large low bias of up to 40 ppbv. Nighttime ozone in urban areas is sensitive to the nocturnal boundary-layer mixing, and enhanced nighttime mixing (from the surface to 200-500 m) is necessary for the model to reproduce the observed level of ozone.

The FluxCompensator: Making Radiative Transfer Models of Hydrodynamical Simulations Directly Comparable to Real Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koepferl, Christine M.; Robitaille, Thomas P.

2017-11-01

When modeling astronomical objects throughout the universe, it is important to correctly treat the limitations of the data, for instance finite resolution and sensitivity. In order to simulate these effects, and to make radiative transfer models directly comparable to real observations, we have developed an open-source Python package called the FluxCompensator that enables the post-processing of the output of 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer codes, such as Hyperion. With the FluxCompensator, realistic synthetic observations can be generated by modeling the effects of convolution with arbitrary point-spread functions, transmission curves, finite pixel resolution, noise, and reddening. Pipelines can be applied to compute synthetic observations that simulate observatories, such as the Spitzer Space Telescope or the Herschel Space Observatory. Additionally, this tool can read in existing observations (e.g., FITS format) and use the same settings for the synthetic observations. In this paper, we describe the package as well as present examples of such synthetic observations.

The FluxCompensator: Making Radiative Transfer Models of Hydrodynamical Simulations Directly Comparable to Real Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koepferl, Christine M.; Robitaille, Thomas P., E-mail: koepferl@usm.lmu.de

When modeling astronomical objects throughout the universe, it is important to correctly treat the limitations of the data, for instance finite resolution and sensitivity. In order to simulate these effects, and to make radiative transfer models directly comparable to real observations, we have developed an open-source Python package called the FluxCompensator that enables the post-processing of the output of 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer codes, such as Hyperion. With the FluxCompensator, realistic synthetic observations can be generated by modeling the effects of convolution with arbitrary point-spread functions, transmission curves, finite pixel resolution, noise, and reddening. Pipelines can be applied tomore » compute synthetic observations that simulate observatories, such as the Spitzer Space Telescope or the Herschel Space Observatory . Additionally, this tool can read in existing observations (e.g., FITS format) and use the same settings for the synthetic observations. In this paper, we describe the package as well as present examples of such synthetic observations.« less

Sensitivities of simulated satellite views of clouds to subgrid-scale overlap and condensate heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillman, Benjamin R.; Marchand, Roger T.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

Satellite simulators are often used to account for limitations in satellite retrievals of cloud properties in comparisons between models and satellite observations. The purpose of the simulator framework is to enable more robust evaluation of model cloud properties, so that di erences between models and observations can more con dently be attributed to model errors. However, these simulators are subject to uncertainties themselves. A fundamental uncertainty exists in connecting the spatial scales at which cloud properties are retrieved with those at which clouds are simulated in global models. In this study, we create a series of sensitivity tests using 4more » km global model output from the Multiscale Modeling Framework to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated satellite retrievals when applied to climate models whose grid spacing is many tens to hundreds of kilometers. In particular, we examine the impact of cloud and precipitation overlap and of condensate spatial variability. We find the simulated retrievals are sensitive to these assumptions. Specifically, using maximum-random overlap with homogeneous cloud and precipitation condensate, which is often used in global climate models, leads to large errors in MISR and ISCCP-simulated cloud cover and in CloudSat-simulated radar reflectivity. To correct for these errors, an improved treatment of unresolved clouds and precipitation is implemented for use with the simulator framework and is shown to substantially reduce the identified errors.« less

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Validation: Codes to compare simulation data to various observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, J. D.

2017-02-01

Validation provides codes to compare several observations to simulated data with stellar mass and star formation rate, simulated data stellar mass function with observed stellar mass function from PRIMUS or SDSS-GALEX in several redshift bins from 0.01-1.0, and simulated data B band luminosity function with observed stellar mass function, and to create plots for various attributes, including stellar mass functions, and stellar mass to halo mass. These codes can model predictions (in some cases alongside observational data) to test other mock catalogs.

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.;

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with the UKCA composition-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, S. S.; Emmerson, K. M.; Mann, G. W.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Hommel, R.; Abraham, N. L.; Telford, P.; Braesicke, P.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C. E.; O'Connor, F.; Morgenstern, O.; Pyle, J. A.; Deshler, T.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

We have enhanced the capability of a microphysical aerosol-chemistry module to simulate the atmospheric aerosol and precursor gases for both tropospheric and stratospheric conditions. Using the Mount Pinatubo eruption (June 1991) as a test case, we evaluate simulated aerosol properties in a composition-climate model against a range of satellite and in-situ observations. Simulations are performed assuming an injection of 20 Tg SO2 at 19-27 km in tropical latitudes, without any radiative feedback from the simulated aerosol. In both quiescent and volcanically perturbed conditions, simulated aerosol properties in the lower stratosphere show reasonable agreement with the observations. The model captures the observed timing of the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its decay timescale in both tropics and Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes. There is also good qualitative agreement with the observations in terms of spatial and temporal variation of the aerosol effective radius (Reff), which peaks 6-8 months after the eruption. However, the model shows significant biases against some observational data sets. Simulated AOD and Surface Area Density (SAD) in the tropics are substantially higher than the gap-filled satellite data products during the first 6 months after the eruption. The model shows consistently weaker enhancement in Reff compared to satellite and in-situ measurements. Simulated aerosol particle size distribution is also compared to NH mid-latitude in-situ balloon sounding measurements of size-resolved number concentrations. Before the eruption, the model captures the observed profiles of lower stratospheric particle number concentrations with radii larger than 5, 150 and 250 nm (N5, N150 and N250) very well. However, in the first 6 months after the eruption, the model shows high bias in N5 concentrations in the lower stratosphere, suggesting too strong nucleation. Following particle growth via condensation and coagulation, this bias in the finest particles propagates into a factor 2 high bias in N150. Our comparison suggests that new particle formation in the initial phase of large eruptions, and subsequent particle growth to optically-active sizes, might be playing an important role in determining the magnitude of the climate impacts from volcanoes like Pinatubo.

An evaluation of simulated particulate sulfate over East Asia through global model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, Daisuke; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Dai, Tie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Kajino, Mizuo; Matsui, Hitoshi; Takami, Akinori; Hatakeyama, Shiro; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Ohara, Toshimasa

2015-06-01

Sulfate aerosols simulated by an aerosol module coupled to the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at a spatial resolution (220 km) widely used by global climate models were evaluated by a comparison with in situ observations and the same aerosol module coupled to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) over East Asia for January, April, July, and October 2006. The results indicated that a horizontal gradient of sulfate from the source over China to the outflow over Korea-Japan was present in both the simulations and the observations. At the observation sites, the correlation coefficients of the sulfate concentrations between the simulations and the observations were high (NICAM: 0.49-0.89, MIROC: 0.61-0.77), whereas the simulated sulfate concentrations were lower than those obtained by the observation with the normalized mean bias of NICAM being -68 to -54% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -67 to -30% (outflow) and that of MIROC being -61 to -28% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -60 to +2% (outflow). Both NICAM and MIROC strongly underpredict surface SO2 over China source regions and Korea-Japan outflow regions, but the MIROC SO2 is much higher than NICAM SO2 over both regions. These differences between the models were mainly explained by differences in the sulfate formation within clouds and the dry deposition of SO2. These results indicated that the uncertainty of the meteorological and cloud fields as well as the vertical transport patterns between the different host climate models has a substantial impact on the simulated sulfate distribution.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

High resolution simulations of orographic flow over a complex terrain on the Southeast coast of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S. C.; Zolino, M. M.; Gomes, J. L.; Bustamante, J. F.; Lima-e-Silva, P. P.

2012-04-01

The Eta Model is used operationally by CPTEC to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The Eta Model was configured, with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain and coastline. Mountains can rise up to about 700m. The region suffers frequent events of floods and landslides. The objective of this work is to evaluate high resolution simulations of wind and temperature in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the plant emergency plan and winds are highly sensitive to model spatial resolution and atmospheric stability. Verification of two cases during summer shows that model has clear diurnal cycle signal for wind in that region. The area is characterized by weak winds which makes the simulation more difficult. The simulated wind magnitude is about 1.5m/s, which is close to observations of about 2m/s; however, the observed change of wind direction of the sea breeze is fast whereas it is slow in the simulations. Nighttime katabatic flow is captured by the simulations. Comparison against Eta-5km runs show that the valley circulation is better described in the 2-km resolution run. Simulated temperatures follow closely the observed diurnal cycle. Experiments improving some surface conditions such as the surface temperature and land cover show simulation error reduction and improved diurnal cycle.

Testing Numerical Models of Cool Core Galaxy Cluster Formation with X-Ray Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henning, Jason W.; Gantner, Brennan; Burns, Jack O.; Hallman, Eric J.

2009-12-01

Using archival Chandra and ROSAT data along with numerical simulations, we compare the properties of cool core and non-cool core galaxy clusters, paying particular attention to the region beyond the cluster cores. With the use of single and double β-models, we demonstrate a statistically significant difference in the slopes of observed cluster surface brightness profiles while the cluster cores remain indistinguishable between the two cluster types. Additionally, through the use of hardness ratio profiles, we find evidence suggesting cool core clusters are cooler beyond their cores than non-cool core clusters of comparable mass and temperature, both in observed and simulated clusters. The similarities between real and simulated clusters supports a model presented in earlier work by the authors describing differing merger histories between cool core and non-cool core clusters. Discrepancies between real and simulated clusters will inform upcoming numerical models and simulations as to new ways to incorporate feedback in these systems.

Comparison of MADE3-simulated and observed aerosol distributions with a focus on aerosol vertical profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Christopher; Hendricks, Johannes; Righi, Mattia; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The reliability of aerosol radiative forcing estimates from climate models depends on the accuracy of simulated global aerosol distribution and composition, as well as on the models' representation of the aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions. To help improve on previous modeling studies, we recently developed the new aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 that explicitly tracks particle mixing state in the Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges. We implemented MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC and evaluated it by comparison of simulated aerosol properties to observations. Compared properties include continental near-surface aerosol component concentrations and size distributions, continental and marine aerosol vertical profiles, and nearly global aerosol optical depth. Recent studies have shown the specific importance of aerosol vertical profiles for determination of the aerosol radiative forcing. Therefore, our focus here is on the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles. The observational data is taken from campaigns between 1990 and 2011 over the Pacific Ocean, over North and South America, and over Europe. The datasets include black carbon and total aerosol mass mixing ratios, as well as aerosol particle number concentrations. Compared to other models, EMAC with MADE3 yields good agreement with the observations - despite a general high bias of the simulated mass mixing ratio profiles. However, BC concentrations are generally overestimated by many models in the upper troposphere. With MADE3 in EMAC, we find better agreement of the simulated BC profiles with HIPPO data than the multi-model average of the models that took part in the AeroCom project. There is an interesting difference between the profiles from individual campaigns and more "climatological" datasets. For instance, compared to spatially and temporally localized campaigns, the model simulates a more continuous decline in both total aerosol and black carbon mass mixing ratio with altitude than found in the observations. In contrast, measured profiles from the HIPPO project are qualitatively captured well. Similar conclusions hold for the comparison of simulated and measured aerosol particle number concentrations. On the one hand, these results exemplify the difficulty in evaluating the representativeness of the simulated global climatological state of the aerosol by means of comparison with individually measured vertical profiles. On the other hand, it highlights the value of aircraft campaigns with large spatial and temporal coverage for model evaluation.

MOCCA code for star cluster simulation: comparison with optical observations using COCOA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askar, Abbas; Giersz, Mirek; Pych, Wojciech; Olech, Arkadiusz; Hypki, Arkadiusz

2016-02-01

We introduce and present preliminary results from COCOA (Cluster simulatiOn Comparison with ObservAtions) code for a star cluster after 12 Gyr of evolution simulated using the MOCCA code. The COCOA code is being developed to quickly compare results of numerical simulations of star clusters with observational data. We use COCOA to obtain parameters of the projected cluster model. For comparison, a FITS file of the projected cluster was provided to observers so that they could use their observational methods and techniques to obtain cluster parameters. The results show that the similarity of cluster parameters obtained through numerical simulations and observations depends significantly on the quality of observational data and photometric accuracy.

The Challenge of Identifying Controls on Cloud Properties and Precipitation Onset for Cumulus Congestus Sampled During MC3E

DOE PAGES

Mechem, David B.; Giangrande, Scott E.

2018-03-01

Here, the controls on precipitation onset and the transition from shallow cumulus to congestus are explored using a suite of 16 large–eddy simulations based on the 25 May 2011 event from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The thermodynamic variables in the model are relaxed at various timescales to observationally constrained temperature and moisture profiles in order to better reproduce the observed behavior of precipitation onset and total precipitation. Three of the simulations stand out as best matching the precipitation observations and also perform well for independent comparisons of cloud fraction, precipitation area fraction, and evolution of cloud topmore » occurrence. All three simulations exhibit a destabilization over time, which leads to a transition to deeper clouds, but the evolution of traditional stability metrics by themselves is not able to explain differences in the simulations. Conditionally sampled cloud properties (in particular, mean cloud buoyancy), however, do elicit differences among the simulations. The inability of environmental profiles alone to discern subtle differences among the simulations and the usefulness of conditionally sampled model quantities argue for hybrid observational/modeling approaches. These combined approaches enable a more complete physical understanding of cloud systems by combining observational sampling of time–varying three–dimensional meteorological quantities and cloud properties, along with detailed representation of cloud microphysical and dynamical processes from numerical models.« less

The Challenge of Identifying Controls on Cloud Properties and Precipitation Onset for Cumulus Congestus Sampled During MC3E

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mechem, David B.; Giangrande, Scott E.

Here, the controls on precipitation onset and the transition from shallow cumulus to congestus are explored using a suite of 16 large–eddy simulations based on the 25 May 2011 event from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The thermodynamic variables in the model are relaxed at various timescales to observationally constrained temperature and moisture profiles in order to better reproduce the observed behavior of precipitation onset and total precipitation. Three of the simulations stand out as best matching the precipitation observations and also perform well for independent comparisons of cloud fraction, precipitation area fraction, and evolution of cloud topmore » occurrence. All three simulations exhibit a destabilization over time, which leads to a transition to deeper clouds, but the evolution of traditional stability metrics by themselves is not able to explain differences in the simulations. Conditionally sampled cloud properties (in particular, mean cloud buoyancy), however, do elicit differences among the simulations. The inability of environmental profiles alone to discern subtle differences among the simulations and the usefulness of conditionally sampled model quantities argue for hybrid observational/modeling approaches. These combined approaches enable a more complete physical understanding of cloud systems by combining observational sampling of time–varying three–dimensional meteorological quantities and cloud properties, along with detailed representation of cloud microphysical and dynamical processes from numerical models.« less

The Challenge of Identifying Controls on Cloud Properties and Precipitation Onset for Cumulus Congestus Sampled During MC3E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechem, David B.; Giangrande, Scott E.

2018-03-01

Controls on precipitation onset and the transition from shallow cumulus to congestus are explored using a suite of 16 large-eddy simulations based on the 25 May 2011 event from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The thermodynamic variables in the model are relaxed at various timescales to observationally constrained temperature and moisture profiles in order to better reproduce the observed behavior of precipitation onset and total precipitation. Three of the simulations stand out as best matching the precipitation observations and also perform well for independent comparisons of cloud fraction, precipitation area fraction, and evolution of cloud top occurrence. All three simulations exhibit a destabilization over time, which leads to a transition to deeper clouds, but the evolution of traditional stability metrics by themselves is not able to explain differences in the simulations. Conditionally sampled cloud properties (in particular, mean cloud buoyancy), however, do elicit differences among the simulations. The inability of environmental profiles alone to discern subtle differences among the simulations and the usefulness of conditionally sampled model quantities argue for hybrid observational/modeling approaches. These combined approaches enable a more complete physical understanding of cloud systems by combining observational sampling of time-varying three-dimensional meteorological quantities and cloud properties, along with detailed representation of cloud microphysical and dynamical processes from numerical models.

Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Tapio; Lan, Shiwei; Stuart, Andrew; Teixeira, João.

2017-12-01

Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both and quantifies uncertainties. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it.

Reconstruction of 137Cs activity in the ocean following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, Daisuke; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Tateda, Yutaka; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Hayami, Hiroshi; Toyoda, Yasuhiro; Maeda, Yoshiaki; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Uematsu, Mitsuo

2014-05-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition. We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the ocean by the comparison model simulations and observed data. We employed a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model to investigate the oceanic contamination. Direct releases of 137Cs were estimated for more than 2 years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly released 137Cs was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be 3.0 x 1010 Bq day-1 by the end of September 2013. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable, while simulated 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition were low compared to measured activities. The rate of atmospheric deposition onto the ocean was underestimated because of a lack of measurements of dose rate and air activity of 137Cs over the ocean when atmospheric deposition rates were being estimated. Observed 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition in the ocean helped to improve the accuracy of simulated atmospheric deposition rates. Although there is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011, observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. In addition, river runoff model simulations suggest that the river flux of 137Cs to the ocean was effective to the 137Cs activity in the ocean in this early period. The sediment transport model simulations suggests that the inventory of 137Cs in sediment was less than 10

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes. Part 1; Validations with a PRE-STORM Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiao-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Simpson, Joanne; Johnson, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-11, 1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. The leading convective zone, the trailing stratiform region, the horizontal wind flow patterns, pressure perturbation associated with the storm dynamics, and the cool pool in front of the system all agree well with the observations. Both the observations and the bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that, the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region are remnants of the previous stronger convections at the leading edge of the system. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Preliminary examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in convective zone simulated in the bulk model. Further quantitative analysis and sensitivity tests for this case using both the bulk and bin models will be presented in a companion paper.

Simulation of carbon isotope discrimination of the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suits, N. S.; Denning, A. S.; Berry, J. A.; Still, C. J.; Kaduk, J.; Miller, J. B.; Baker, I. T.

2005-03-01

We introduce a multistage model of carbon isotope discrimination during C3 photosynthesis and global maps of C3/C4 plant ratios to an ecophysiological model of the terrestrial biosphere (SiB2) in order to predict the carbon isotope ratios of terrestrial plant carbon globally at a 1° resolution. The model is driven by observed meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), constrained by satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and run for the years 1983-1993. Modeled mean annual C3 discrimination during this period is 19.2‰; total mean annual discrimination by the terrestrial biosphere (C3 and C4 plants) is 15.9‰. We test simulation results in three ways. First, we compare the modeled response of C3 discrimination to changes in physiological stress, including daily variations in vapor pressure deficit (vpd) and monthly variations in precipitation, to observed changes in discrimination inferred from Keeling plot intercepts. Second, we compare mean δ13C ratios from selected biomes (Broadleaf, Temperate Broadleaf, Temperate Conifer, and Boreal) to the observed values from Keeling plots at these biomes. Third, we compare simulated zonal δ13C ratios in the Northern Hemisphere (20°N to 60°N) to values predicted from high-frequency variations in measured atmospheric CO2 and δ13C from terrestrially dominated sites within the NOAA-Globalview flask network. The modeled response to changes in vapor pressure deficit compares favorably to observations. Simulated discrimination in tropical forests of the Amazon basin is less sensitive to changes in monthly precipitation than is suggested by some observations. Mean model δ13C ratios for Broadleaf, Temperate Broadleaf, Temperate Conifer, and Boreal biomes compare well with the few measurements available; however, there is more variability in observations than in the simulation, and modeled δ13C values for tropical forests are heavy relative to observations. Simulated zonal δ13C ratios in the Northern Hemisphere capture patterns of zonal δ13C inferred from atmospheric measurements better than previous investigations. Finally, there is still a need for additional constraints to verify that carbon isotope models behave as expected.

Impact of Assimilation of Conventional and Satellite Radiance GTS Observations on Simulation of Mesoscale Convective System Over Southeast India Using WRF-3DVar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhulatha, A.; Rajeevan, M.; Bhowmik, S. K. Roy; Das, A. K.

2018-01-01

The primary goal of present study is to investigate the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite radiance observations in simulating the mesoscale convective system (MCS) formed over south east India. An assimilation methodology based on Weather Research and Forecasting model three dimensional variational data assimilation is considered. Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual and combined impact of conventional and non-conventional (satellite radiance) observations. After the successful inclusion of additional observations, strong analysis increments of temperature and moisture fields are noticed and contributed to significant improvement in model's initial fields. The resulting model simulations are able to successfully reproduce the prominent synoptic features responsible for the initiation of MCS. Among all the experiments, the final experiment in which both conventional and satellite radiance observations assimilated has showed considerable impact on the prediction of MCS. The location, genesis, intensity, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MCS are simulated reasonably well. The biases of simulated temperature, moisture and wind fields at surface and different pressure levels are reduced. Thermodynamic, dynamic and vertical structure of convective cells associated with the passage of MCS are well captured. Spatial distribution of rainfall is fairly reproduced and comparable to TRMM observations. It is demonstrated that incorporation of conventional and satellite radiance observations improved the local and synoptic representation of temperature, moisture fields from surface to different levels of atmosphere. This study highlights the importance of assimilation of conventional and satellite radiances in improving the models initial conditions and simulation of MCS.

Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model wasmore » able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.« less

Multi-wavelength simulations of atmospheric radiation from Io with a 3-D spherical-shell backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gratiy, Sergey L.; Walker, Andrew C.; Levin, Deborah A.; Goldstein, David B.; Varghese, Philip L.; Trafton, Laurence M.; Moore, Chris H.

2010-05-01

Conflicting observations regarding the dominance of either sublimation or volcanism as the source of the atmosphere on Io and disparate reports on the extent of its spatial distribution and the absolute column abundance invite the development of detailed computational models capable of improving our understanding of Io's unique atmospheric structure and origin. Improving upon previous models, Walker et al. (Walker, A.C., Gratiy, S.L., Levin, D.A., Goldstein, D.B., Varghese, P.L., Trafton, L.M., Moore, C.H., Stewart, B. [2009]. Icarus) developed a fully 3-D global rarefied gas dynamics model of Io's atmosphere including both sublimation and volcanic sources of SO 2 gas. The fidelity of the model is tested by simulating remote observations at selected wavelength bands and comparing them to the corresponding astronomical observations of Io's atmosphere. The simulations are performed with a new 3-D spherical-shell radiative transfer code utilizing a backward Monte Carlo method. We present: (1) simulations of the mid-infrared disk-integrated spectra of Io's sunlit hemisphere at 19 μm, obtained with TEXES during 2001-2004; (2) simulations of disk-resolved images at Lyman- α obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) during 1997-2001; and (3) disk-integrated simulations of emission line profiles in the millimeter wavelength range obtained with the IRAM-30 m telescope in October-November 1999. We found that the atmospheric model generally reproduces the longitudinal variation in band depth from the mid-infrared data; however, the best match is obtained when our simulation results are shifted ˜30° toward lower orbital longitudes. The simulations of Lyman- α images do not reproduce the mid-to-high latitude bright patches seen in the observations, suggesting that the model atmosphere sustains columns that are too high at those latitudes. The simulations of emission line profiles in the millimeter spectral region support the hypothesis that the atmospheric dynamics favorably explains the observed line widths, which are too wide to be formed by thermal Doppler broadening alone.

The role of historical forcings in simulating the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, L. M.; Cane, M. A.; Bellomo, K.; Clement, A. C.

2016-12-01

The variation in basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), affects climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere and tropics, yet the forcing mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we analyze the AMO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Pre-industrial (PI) and Historical (HIST) simulations to determine the role of historical climate forcings in producing the observed 20th century shifts in the AMO (OBS, 1865-2005). We evaluate whether the agreement between models and observations is better with historical forcings or without forcing - i.e. due to processes internal to the climate system, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To do this we draw 141-year samples from 38 CMIP5 PI runs and compare the correlation between the PI and HIST AMO to the observed AMO. We find that in the majority of models (24 out of 38), it is very unlikely (less than 10% chance) that the unforced simulations produce agreement with observations that are as high as the forced simulations. We also compare the amplitude of the simulated AMO and find that 87% of models produce multi-decadal variance in the AMO with historical forcings that is very likely higher than without forcing, but most models underestimate the variance of the observed AMO. This indicates that over the 20th century external rather than internal forcing was crucial in setting the pace, phase and amplitude of the AMO.

Quantitative petri net model of gene regulated metabolic networks in the cell.

PubMed

Chen, Ming; Hofestädt, Ralf

2011-01-01

A method to exploit hybrid Petri nets (HPN) for quantitatively modeling and simulating gene regulated metabolic networks is demonstrated. A global kinetic modeling strategy and Petri net modeling algorithm are applied to perform the bioprocess functioning and model analysis. With the model, the interrelations between pathway analysis and metabolic control mechanism are outlined. Diagrammatical results of the dynamics of metabolites are simulated and observed by implementing a HPN tool, Visual Object Net ++. An explanation of the observed behavior of the urea cycle is proposed to indicate possibilities for metabolic engineering and medical care. Finally, the perspective of Petri nets on modeling and simulation of metabolic networks is discussed.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

Using deep neural networks to augment NIF post-shot analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbird, Kelli; Peterson, Luc; McClarren, Ryan; Field, John; Gaffney, Jim; Kruse, Michael; Nora, Ryan; Spears, Brian

2017-10-01

Post-shot analysis of National Ignition Facility (NIF) experiments is the process of determining which simulation inputs yield results consistent with experimental observations. This analysis is typically accomplished by running suites of manually adjusted simulations, or Monte Carlo sampling surrogate models that approximate the response surfaces of the physics code. These approaches are expensive and often find simulations that match only a small subset of observables simultaneously. We demonstrate an alternative method for performing post-shot analysis using inverse models, which map directly from experimental observables to simulation inputs with quantified uncertainties. The models are created using a novel machine learning algorithm which automates the construction and initialization of deep neural networks to optimize predictive accuracy. We show how these neural networks, trained on large databases of post-shot simulations, can rigorously quantify the agreement between simulation and experiment. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. III - Comparison of observations over the oceans with a GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.; Randall, David A.; Wittmeyer, Ian L.; Dazlich, Donald A.; Tjemkes, Stephen

1993-01-01

The ability of the Colorado State University general circulation model (GCM) to simulate interactions between the hydrological cycle and the radiative processes on earth was examined by comparing various sensitivity relationships established by the model with those observed on earth, and the observed and calculated seasonal cycles of the greenhouse effect and cloud radiative forcing. Results showed that, although the GCM model used was able to simulate well some aspects of the observed sensitivities, there were many serious quantitative differences, including problems in the simulation of the column vapor in the tropics and an excessively strong clear-sky greenhouse effect in the mid-latitudes. These differences led to an underestimation by the model of the sensitivity of the clear-sky greenhouse to changes in sea surface temperature.

Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

2018-04-01

Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

An efficient surrogate-based simulation-optimization method for calibrating a regional MODFLOW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.

2017-01-01

Simulation-optimization method entails a large number of model simulations, which is computationally intensive or even prohibitive if the model simulation is extremely time-consuming. Statistical models have been examined as a surrogate of the high-fidelity physical model during simulation-optimization process to tackle this problem. Among them, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), a non-parametric adaptive regression method, is superior in overcoming problems of high-dimensions and discontinuities of the data. Furthermore, the stability and accuracy of MARS model can be improved by bootstrap aggregating methods, namely, bagging. In this paper, Bagging MARS (BMARS) method is integrated to a surrogate-based simulation-optimization framework to calibrate a three-dimensional MODFLOW model, which is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid hardrock-alluvium region in northwestern Oman. The physical MODFLOW model is surrogated by the statistical model developed using BMARS algorithm. The surrogate model, which is fitted and validated using training dataset generated by the physical model, can approximate solutions rapidly. An efficient Sobol' method is employed to calculate global sensitivities of head outputs to input parameters, which are used to analyze their importance for the model outputs spatiotemporally. Only sensitive parameters are included in the calibration process to further improve the computational efficiency. Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between measured and simulated heads at observation wells is used as the objective function to be minimized during optimization. The reasonable history match between the simulated and observed heads demonstrated feasibility of this high-efficient calibration framework.

A finite volume model simulation for the Broughton Archipelago, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman, M. G. G.; Czajko, P.; Stucchi, D. J.; Guo, M.

A finite volume circulation model is applied to the Broughton Archipelago region of British Columbia, Canada and used to simulate the three-dimensional velocity, temperature, and salinity fields that are required by a companion model for sea lice behaviour, development, and transport. The absence of a high resolution atmospheric model necessitated the installation of nine weather stations throughout the region and the development of a simple data assimilation technique that accounts for topographic steering in interpolating/extrapolating the measured winds to the entire model domain. The circulation model is run for the period of March 13-April 3, 2008 and correlation coefficients between observed and model currents, comparisons between model and observed tidal harmonics, and root mean square differences between observed and model temperatures and salinities all showed generally good agreement. The importance of wind forcing in the near-surface circulation, differences between this simulation and one computed with another model, the effects of bathymetric smoothing on channel velocities, further improvements necessary for this model to accurately simulate conditions in May and June, and the implication of near-surface current patterns at a critical location in the 'migration corridor' of wild juvenile salmon, are also discussed.

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funke, B.; Baumgaertner, A.; Calisto, M.; Egorova, T.; Jackman, C. H.; Kieser, J.; Krivolutsky, A.; Lopez-Puertas, M.; Marsh. D. R.; Reddmann, T.;

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janardanan, Rajesh; Maksyutov, Shamil; Oda, Tomohiro; Saito, Makoto; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Ganshin, Alexander; Stohl, Andreas; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya

2016-01-01

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

2012-01-01

One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

Direct Comparisons of Ice Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties Simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 with HIPPO Aircraft Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Liu, X.; Diao, M.; Zhang, K.; Gettelman, A.

2015-12-01

A dominant source of uncertainty within climate system modeling lies in the representation of cloud processes. This is not only because of the great complexity in cloud microphysics, but also because of the large variations of cloud amount and macroscopic properties in time and space. In this study, the cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4 (CAM5.4) are evaluated using the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO, 2009-2011). CAM5.4 is driven by the meteorology (U, V, and T) from GEOS5 analysis, while water vapor, hydrometeors and aerosols are calculated by the model itself. For direct comparison of CAM5.4 and HIPPO observations, model output is collocated with HIPPO flights. Generally, the model has an ability to capture specific cloud systems of meso- to large-scales. In total, the model can reproduce 80% of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes, and even higher (93%) for ice clouds (T≤-40°C). However, the model produces plenty of clouds that are not presented in the observation. The model also simulates significantly larger cloud fraction including for ice clouds compared to the observation. Further analysis shows that the overestimation is a result of bias in relative humidity (RH) in the model. The bias of RH can be mostly attributed to the discrepancies of water vapor, and to a lesser extent to those of temperature. Down to the micro-scale level of ice clouds, the model can simulate reasonably well the magnitude of ice and snow number concentration (Ni, with diameter larger than 75 μm). However, the model simulates fewer occurrences of Ni>50 L-1. This can be partially ascribed to the low bias of aerosol number concentration (Naer, with diameter between 0.1-1 μm) simulated by the model. Moreover, the model significantly underestimates both the number mean diameter (Di,n) and the volume mean diameter (Di,v) of ice/snow. The result shows that the underestimation may be related to a weaker positive relationship between Di,n and Naer and/or the underestimation of Naer. Finally, it is suggested that better representation of sub-grid variability of meteorology (e.g., water vapor) is needed to improve the formation and evolution of ice clouds in the model.

Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2013-04-01

The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the initialization procedures tested. It also allows us determine the upper limit of improvement that can be expected if more sophisticated initialization methods are used in decadal prediction simulations and if models have an internal variability agreeing with the observed one. Furthermore, since pseudo-observations are available everywhere at any time step, we also analyse the differences between simulations initialized with a complete dataset of pseudo-observations and the ones for which pseudo-observations data are not assimilated everywhere. In a second step, simulations are realized in a realistic framework, i.e. through the use of actual available observations. The same data assimilation methods are tested in order to check if more sophisticated methods can improve the reliability and the accuracy of decadal prediction simulations, even if they are performed with models that overestimate the internal variability of the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Huang, Lei; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

2016-05-01

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010-2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010-2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. The evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.

Simulation of seismic events induced by CO2 injection at In Salah, Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon, James P.; Stork, Anna L.; Bissell, Rob C.; Bond, Clare E.; Werner, Maximilian J.

2015-09-01

Carbon capture and storage technology has the potential to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the geomechanical response of the reservoir and sealing caprocks must be modelled and monitored to ensure that injected CO2 is safely stored. To ensure confidence in model results, there is a clear need to develop ways of comparing model predictions with observations from the field. In this paper we develop an approach to simulate microseismic activity induced by injection, which allows us to compare geomechanical model predictions with observed microseismic activity. We apply this method to the In Salah CCS project, Algeria. A geomechanical reconstruction is used to simulate the locations, orientations and sizes of pre-existing fractures in the In Salah reservoir. The initial stress conditions, in combination with a history matched reservoir flow model, are used to determine when and where these fractures exceed Mohr-Coulomb limits, triggering failure. The sizes and orientations of fractures, and the stress conditions thereon, are used to determine the resulting micro-earthquake focal mechanisms and magnitudes. We compare our simulated event population with observations made at In Salah, finding good agreement between model and observations in terms of event locations, rates of seismicity, and event magnitudes.

Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Jun; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.; Kawa, Stephan R.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

Evaluation of cloud-resolving modeling of haboobs using in-situ and remotely sensed observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Anatolii; Axisa, Duncan; Mostamandi, Suleiman; Kucera, Paul A.; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-04-01

Arabian Peninsula is one of the major dust generation regions that at present is severely under-sampled. In this study, we combine unique aircraft observations of aerosol and fine-resolution simulations to better quantify dust generation and transport in deep convective storms called haboobs. The aerosol observations were obtained during the "Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Assessment of Rainfall Augmentation" research program that was conducted in the Central and Southwest regions of Saudi Arabia for the years of 2006 through 2009. We ingest the observations from the first phase of the project conducted in the central Arabian Peninsula near Riyadh in April 2007 and focus on the observational cases when the aircraft sampled high concentrations of dust within haboobs. These data are indispensable for assessment of dust properties during periods of extreme aerosol loading. We perform cloud-resolving 2-km simulations using the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model with 8-bin MOSAIC aerosol microphysics scheme that accounts for direct and indirect aerosol effects. The model is validated using observations from surface weather stations, Doppler weather radar network, AERONET stations, MODIS and SEVIRI satellite aerosol sensors. We also compare the model results with recent MERRA-2 reanalysis that assimilates aerosols and chemical components. The model captures the spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric circulation and aerosol properties and calculates contributions of different aerosol species. We specifically compare the simulated aerosols with the aircraft measurements to evaluate the vertical extent and the structure of dust layers in haboobs. The simulated column-averaged dust size distribution compares reasonably well with AERONET and aircraft measurement. Despite total aerosol optical depth in simulations and MERRA2 reanalysis are quite similar, the vertical distribution and regional dust emission fluxes in the model and reanalysis differ significantly. The presentation will provide insights on differences between the observations and simulations.

Alternating Renewal Process Models for Behavioral Observation: Simulation Methods, Software, and Validity Illustrations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pustejovsky, James E.; Runyon, Christopher

2014-01-01

Direct observation recording procedures produce reductive summary measurements of an underlying stream of behavior. Previous methodological studies of these recording procedures have employed simulation methods for generating random behavior streams, many of which amount to special cases of a statistical model known as the alternating renewal…

Comparison of Radiative Energy Flows in Observational Datasets and Climate Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Rossow, William B.; Stackhouse, Paul W. Jr.; Wild, Martin

2016-01-01

This study examines radiative flux distributions and local spread of values from three major observational datasets (CERES, ISCCP, and SRB) and compares them with results from climate modeling (CMIP3). Examinations of the spread and differences also differentiate among contributions from cloudy and clear-sky conditions. The spread among observational datasets is in large part caused by noncloud ancillary data. Average differences of at least 10Wm(exp -2) each for clear-sky downward solar, upward solar, and upward infrared fluxes at the surface demonstrate via spatial difference patterns major differences in assumptions for atmospheric aerosol, solar surface albedo and surface temperature, and/or emittance in observational datasets. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), observational datasets are less influenced by the ancillary data errors than at the surface. Comparisons of spatial radiative flux distributions at the TOA between observations and climate modeling indicate large deficiencies in the strength and distribution of model-simulated cloud radiative effects. Differences are largest for lower-altitude clouds over low-latitude oceans. Global modeling simulates stronger cloud radiative effects (CRE) by +30Wmexp -2) over trade wind cumulus regions, yet smaller CRE by about -30Wm(exp -2) over (smaller in area) stratocumulus regions. At the surface, climate modeling simulates on average about 15Wm(exp -2) smaller radiative net flux imbalances, as if climate modeling underestimates latent heat release (and precipitation). Relative to observational datasets, simulated surface net fluxes are particularly lower over oceanic trade wind regions (where global modeling tends to overestimate the radiative impact of clouds). Still, with the uncertainty in noncloud ancillary data, observational data do not establish a reliable reference.

Polar Ozone Loss Rates: Comparison Of Match Observations With Simulations Of 3-D Chemical Transport Model And Box Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, O. P.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Marchand, M.; Pazmino, A.; Hauchecorne, A.

2005-12-01

Model simulations of ozone loss rates during recent arctic and Antarctic winters are compared with the observed ozone loss rates from the match technique. Arctic winters 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2002/2003 and the Antarctic winter 2003 were considered for the analysis. We use a high resolution chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM and REPROBUS box model for the calculation of ozone loss rates. Trajectory model calculations show that the ozone loss rates are dependent on the initialization fields. On the one hand when chemical fields are initialized by UCAM (University of Cambridge SLIMCAT model simulated fields) the loss rates were underestimated by a factor of two whereas on the other hand when it is initialized by UL (University of Leeds) fields the model loss rates are in a very good agreement with match loss rates at lower levels. The study shows a very good agreement between MIMOSA-CHIM simulation and match observation in 1999/2000 winter at both levels, 450 and 500 K, except slight underestimation in March at 500 K. But in January we have a very good agreement. This is also true for 1994/1995 when we consider simulated ozone loss rate in view of the ECMWF wind deficiency assuming that match observations were not made on isolated trajectories. Sensitivity tests, by changing JCl2O2 value, particle number density and heating rates, performed for the arctic winter 1999/2000 shows that we need to improve our understanding of particle number density and heating rate calculation mechanism. Burkholder JCl2O2 has improved the comparison of MIMOSA-CHIM model results with observations (Tripathi et al., 2005). In the same study the comparison results were shown to improved by changing heating rates and number density through NAT particle sedimentation.

Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ntuen, Celestine A.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.

WRF-Chem Simulations of Lightning-NOx Production and Transport in Oklahoma and Colorado Thunderstorms Observed During DC3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cummings, Kristin A.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Barth, M.; Bela, M.; Li, Y.; Allen, D.; Bruning, E.; MacGorman, D.; Rutledge, S.; Basarab, B.;

Case Studies of Forecasting Ionospheric Total Electron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; McGranaghan, R. M.

2017-12-01

We report on medium-range forecast-mode runs of ionosphere-thermosphere coupled models that calculate ionospheric total electron content (TEC), focusing on low-latitude daytime conditions. A medium-range forecast-mode run refers to simulations that are driven by inputs that can be predicted 2-3 days in advance, for example based on simulations of the solar wind. We will present results from a weak geomagnetic storm caused by a high-speed solar wind stream on June 29, 2012. Simulations based on the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) significantly over-estimate TEC in certain low latitude daytime regions, compared to TEC maps based on observations. We will present the results from a more intense coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storm where the simulations are closer to observations. We compare high latitude data sets to model inputs, such as auroral boundary and convection patterns, to assess the degree to which poorly estimated high latitude drivers may be the largest cause of discrepancy between simulations and observations. Our results reveal many factors that can affect the accuracy of forecasts, including the fidelity of empirical models used to estimate high latitude precipitation patterns, or observation proxies for solar EUV spectra, such as the F10.7 index. Implications for forecasts with few-day lead times are discussed

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

OCO-2 and GOSAT observations of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksyutov, S. S.; Yadav, V.; Eldering, A.; Janardanan Achari, R.; Saito, M.; Oda, T.

2017-12-01

We apply high resolution transport modeling with Lagrangian transport model Flexpart to analyze CO2 emission signatures in the total column XCO2 observed by OCO-2 and GOSAT satellites in 2014-2016. To reduce computational load for transport modeling, the OCO-2 observations are aggregated into 1 second averages prepared separately for two groups (left and right) made of simultaneously measured eight OCO-2 observations (footprints). Each group has surface footprint size close to 0.1 degree. The spatial distribution of CO2 concentrations, resulting from anthropogenic emissions, are estimated with the transport model for all GOSAT and OCO-2 observation locations using high-resolution emission inventory (ODIAC) and biospheric exchange simulated with VISIT model at 0.1 degree resolution. Based on this estimate, using a threshold value of 0.1 ppm, the observations are classified into two categories: data contaminated by the anthropogenic sources and those not including this contamination. To extract concentration enhancements due to the anthropogenic emissions, we define a clean background (the averaged values for the data free from contamination by anthropogenic emissions) in 10° by 10° regions over the globe that are subtracted from the observational data including anthropogenic contamination. These anomalies are binned and analyzed to see a match between observed and simulated enhancements. For both OCO-2 and GOSAT, we found linear relations between model and observed anomalies. Similar to the earlier findings made with GOSAT; enhancements observed by OCO-2 match the simulated ones with a regression slope close to unity. Even after aggregation of OCO-2 data into groups of up to 12 individual soundings, the number of enhanced XCO2 observations by OCO-2 is 15 and 25 times larger than that of GOSAT in each 0.1 ppm bin, in the range of simulated enhancements between 0.1 and 2 ppm. The result confirms high potential of using OCO-2 observations for analyzing anthropogenic emission signatures. We also prepare higher resolution simulation of the CO2 transport with emissions based on ODIAC inventory to match the resolution of the OCO-2 observations, that reduces smear introduced by aggregating individual observations used in the current approach.

SIM_ADJUST -- A computer code that adjusts simulated equivalents for observations or predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, Eileen P.; Hill, Mary C.

2008-01-01

This report documents the SIM_ADJUST computer code. SIM_ADJUST surmounts an obstacle that is sometimes encountered when using universal model analysis computer codes such as UCODE_2005 (Poeter and others, 2005), PEST (Doherty, 2004), and OSTRICH (Matott, 2005; Fredrick and others (2007). These codes often read simulated equivalents from a list in a file produced by a process model such as MODFLOW that represents a system of interest. At times values needed by the universal code are missing or assigned default values because the process model could not produce a useful solution. SIM_ADJUST can be used to (1) read a file that lists expected observation or prediction names and possible alternatives for the simulated values; (2) read a file produced by a process model that contains space or tab delimited columns, including a column of simulated values and a column of related observation or prediction names; (3) identify observations or predictions that have been omitted or assigned a default value by the process model; and (4) produce an adjusted file that contains a column of simulated values and a column of associated observation or prediction names. The user may provide alternatives that are constant values or that are alternative simulated values. The user may also provide a sequence of alternatives. For example, the heads from a series of cells may be specified to ensure that a meaningful value is available to compare with an observation located in a cell that may become dry. SIM_ADJUST is constructed using modules from the JUPITER API, and is intended for use on any computer operating system. SIM_ADJUST consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations.

Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models.

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.;

Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics in JMA-NHM Simulations Using Bin or Bulk Microphysical Schemes through Comparison with Cloud Radar Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Khain, Alexander P.; Saito, Kazuo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency NonhydrostaticModel (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborneW-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separatelyfor an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysicsschemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to theequivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). Ingeneral, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk modelsimulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves theresult of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the masssizeand sizeterminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snowaloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominanceof snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows thata correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introducedeven in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

How model and input uncertainty impact maize yield simulations in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter; Wang, Enli

2015-02-01

Crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in studies on food security and global change. Various uncertainties however exist, not only in the model design and model parameters, but also and maybe even more important in soil, climate and management input data. We analyze the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM and the global scale crop model LPJmL with different climate and soil conditions under different agricultural management in the low-input maize-growing areas of Burkina Faso, West Africa. We test the models’ response to different levels of input information from little to detailed information on soil, climate (1961-2000) and agricultural management and compare the models’ ability to represent the observed spatial (between locations) and temporal variability (between years) in crop yields. We found that the resolution of different soil, climate and management information influences the simulated crop yields in both models. However, the difference between models is larger than between input data and larger between simulations with different climate and management information than between simulations with different soil information. The observed spatial variability can be represented well from both models even with little information on soils and management but APSIM simulates a higher variation between single locations than LPJmL. The agreement of simulated and observed temporal variability is lower due to non-climatic factors e.g. investment in agricultural research and development between 1987 and 1991 in Burkina Faso which resulted in a doubling of maize yields. The findings of our study highlight the importance of scale and model choice and show that the most detailed input data does not necessarily improve model performance.

Using High-Resolution Satellite Observations for Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations. Part I: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Hou, A.; Lau, W. K.; Shie, C.; Tao, W.; Lin, X.; Chou, M.; Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.

2006-05-01

The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. Mesoscale organization is adequately simulated except when environmental wind shear is very weak. The partitions between convective and stratiform rain are also close to TMI and PR classification. However, the model simulated rain spectrum is quite different from either TMI or PR measurements. The model produces more heavy rains and light rains (less than 0.1 mm/hr) than the observations. The model also produces heavier vertical hydrometer profiles of rain, graupel when compared with TMI retrievals and PR radar reflectivity. Comparing GCE simulated OLR and cloud properties with CERES measurements found that the model has much larger domain averaged OLR due to smaller total cloud fraction and a much skewed distribution of OLR and cloud top than CERES observations, indicating that the model's cloud field is not wide spread, consistent with the model's precipitation activity. These results will be used as guidance for improving the model's microphysics.

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnock, S. T.; Spracklen, D. V.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Forster, P. M.; Haywood, J.; Johnson, C. E.; Dalvi, M.; Bellouin, N.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.

2015-08-01

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry-climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry-climate model for the period 1960-2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978-2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978-1998), PM10 (1997-2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000-2009), aerosol size distributions (2008-2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960-2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = -0.4), SPM (NMBF = -0.9), PM10 (NMBF = -0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = -0.85; N50 NMBF = -0.65; and N100 NMBF = -0.96) and AOD (NMBF = -0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of -68 % (-78 %), SPM of -42 % (-20 %), PM10 of -9 % (-8 %) and AOD of -11 % (-14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990-2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m-2 during the period 1970-2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Processes influencing formation of low-salinity high-biomass lenses near the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yizhen; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Klinck, John M.

2017-02-01

Both remotely sensed and in situ observations in austral summer of early 2012 in the Ross Sea suggest the presence of cold, low-salinity, and high-biomass eddies along the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). Satellite measurements include sea surface temperature and ocean color, and shipboard data sets include hydrographic profiles, towed instrumentation, and underway acoustic Doppler current profilers. Idealized model simulations are utilized to examine the processes responsible for ice shelf eddy formation. 3-D model simulations produce similar cold and fresh eddies, although the simulated vertical lenses are quantitatively thinner than observed. Model sensitivity tests show that both basal melting underneath the ice shelf and irregularity of the ice shelf edge facilitate generation of cold and fresh eddies. 2-D model simulations further suggest that both basal melting and downwelling-favorable winds play crucial roles in forming a thick layer of low-salinity water observed along the edge of the RIS. These properties may have been entrained into the observed eddies, whereas that entrainment process was not captured in the specific eddy formation events studied in our 3-D model-which may explain the discrepancy between the simulated and observed eddies, at least in part. Additional sensitivity experiments imply that uncertainties associated with background stratification and wind stress may also explain why the model underestimates the thickness of the low-salinity lens in the eddy interiors. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating accurate wind forcing, basal melting, and ice shelf irregularity for simulating eddy formation near the RIS edge. The processes responsible for generating the high phytoplankton biomass inside these eddies remain to be elucidated. Appendix B. Details for the basal melting and mechanical forcing by the ice shelf edge.

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-08-01

Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15%) with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled monthly soil moisture for the state of Illinois (US) agreed well (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.01) with observed data for the years 1984-2001. Overall, this study justifies both the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land covers into a DGVM and the reliability of LH to simulate land-surface water balances. To better estimate surface/river runoff at mid-to-high latitudes, we recommended that LPJ-DGVM considers the effects of solar radiation on snowmelt.

Observing the baryon cycle in hydrodynamic cosmological simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vander Vliet, Jacob Richard

An understanding of galaxy evolution requires an understanding of the flow of baryons in and out of a galaxy. The accretion of baryons is required for galaxies to form stars, while stars eject baryons out of the galaxy through stellar feedback mechanisms such as supernovae, stellar winds, and radiation pressure. The interplay between outfiowing and infalling material form the circumgalactic medium (CGM). Hydrodynamic simulations provide understanding of the connection between stellar feedback and the distribution and kinematics of baryons in the CGM. To compare simulations and observations properly the simulated CGI must be observed in the same manner as the real CGM. I have developed the Mockspec code to generate synthetic quasar absorption line observations of the CGM in cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. Mockspec generates synthetic spectra based on the phase; lnetallicity, and kinematics of CGM gas and mimics instrumental effects. Mockspec includes automated analysis of the spectra and identifies the gas responsible for the absorption. Mockspec was applied to simulations of dwarf galaxies at low redshift to examine the observable effect different feedback models have on the CGM. While the different feedback models had strong effects on the galaxy, they all produced a similar CGM that failed match observations. Mockspec was applied to the VELA simulation suite of high redshift, high mass galaxies to examine the variance of the CGM across different galaxies in different environments. The observed CGM showed little variation between the different galaxies and almost no evolution from z=4 to z=1. The VELAs were not able to generate a CGM to match the observations. The properties of cells responsible for the absorption were compared to the derived properties from Voigt Profile decomposition. VP modeling was found to accurately describe the HI and MgII absorbing gas but failed for high ionization species such as CIV and OVI, which do not arise in the coherent structures assumed by modelling. The technique of mock QAL is useful for testing the accuracy of the simulated CGM and for verifying observational techniques. but not for differentiating between feedback prescriptions in dwarf galaxies.

The effects of numerical-model complexity and observation type on estimated porosity values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.; Green, Christopher T.

2015-01-01

The relative merits of model complexity and types of observations employed in model calibration are compared. An existing groundwater flow model coupled with an advective transport simulation of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah (USA), is adapted for advective transport, and effective porosity is adjusted until simulated tritium concentrations match concentrations in samples from wells. Two calibration approaches are used: a “complex” highly parameterized porosity field and a “simple” parsimonious model of porosity distribution. The use of an atmospheric tracer (tritium in this case) and apparent ages (from tritium/helium) in model calibration also are discussed. Of the models tested, the complex model (with tritium concentrations and tritium/helium apparent ages) performs best. Although tritium breakthrough curves simulated by complex and simple models are very generally similar, and there is value in the simple model, the complex model is supported by a more realistic porosity distribution and a greater number of estimable parameters. Culling the best quality data did not lead to better calibration, possibly because of processes and aquifer characteristics that are not simulated. Despite many factors that contribute to shortcomings of both the models and the data, useful information is obtained from all the models evaluated. Although any particular prediction of tritium breakthrough may have large errors, overall, the models mimic observed trends.

Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Golden, Heather E.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Lowery, Mark A.; Conrads, Paul; Bradley, Paul M.

2010-01-01

The McTier Creek watershed is located in the Sand Hills ecoregion of South Carolina and is a small catchment within the Edisto River Basin. Two watershed hydrology models were applied to the McTier Creek watershed as part of a larger scientific investigation to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin. The two models are the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and the grid-based mercury model (GBMM). TOPMODEL uses the variable-source area concept for simulating streamflow, and GBMM uses a spatially explicit modified curve-number approach for simulating streamflow. The hydrologic output from TOPMODEL can be used explicitly to simulate the transport of mercury in separate applications, whereas the hydrology output from GBMM is used implicitly in the simulation of mercury fate and transport in GBMM. The modeling efforts were a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Calibrations of TOPMODEL and GBMM were done independently while using the same meteorological data and the same period of record of observed data. Two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were available for comparison of observed daily mean flow with simulated daily mean flow-station 02172300, McTier Creek near Monetta, South Carolina, and station 02172305, McTier Creek near New Holland, South Carolina. The period of record at the Monetta gage covers a broad range of hydrologic conditions, including a drought and a significant wet period. Calibrating the models under these extreme conditions along with the normal flow conditions included in the record enhances the robustness of the two models. Several quantitative assessments of the goodness of fit between model simulations and the observed daily mean flows were done. These included the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency index, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the bias, and the mean absolute error. In addition, a number of graphical tools were used to assess how well the models captured the characteristics of the observed data at the Monetta and New Holland streamflow-gaging stations. The graphical tools included temporal plots of simulated and observed daily mean flows, flow-duration curves, single-mass curves, and various residual plots. The results indicated that TOPMODEL and GBMM generally produced simulations that reasonably capture the quantity, variability, and timing of the observed streamflow. For the periods modeled, the total volume of simulated daily mean flows as compared to the total volume of the observed daily mean flow from TOPMODEL was within 1 to 5 percent, and the total volume from GBMM was within 1 to 10 percent. A noticeable characteristic of the simulated hydrographs from both models is the complexity of balancing groundwater recession and flow at the streamgage when flows peak and recede rapidly. However, GBMM results indicate that groundwater recession, which affects the receding limb of the hydrograph, was more difficult to estimate with the spatially explicit curve number approach. Although the purpose of this report is not to directly compare both models, given the characteristics of the McTier Creek watershed and the fact that GBMM uses the spatially explicit curve number approach as compared to the variable-source-area concept in TOPMODEL, GBMM was able to capture the flow characteristics reasonably well.

Simulations of the galaxy cluster CIZA J2242.8+5301 - I. Thermal model and shock properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnert, J. M. F.; Beck, A. M.; Dolag, K.; Röttgering, H. J. A.

2017-11-01

The giant radio relic in CIZA J2242.8+5301 provides clear evidence of an Mpc-sized shock in a massive merging galaxy cluster. Here, we present idealized SPH hydrodynamical and collisionless dark matter simulations, aiming to find a model that is consistent with that large range of observations of this galaxy cluster. We first show that in the northern shock, the observed radio spectral index profile and integrated radio spectrum are consistent with the observed upstream X-ray temperature. Using simulations, we first find that only a cool-core versus non-cool-core merger can lead to the observed elongated X-ray morphology. We then carry out simulations for two merging clusters assuming a range of NFW and β-model density profiles and hydrostatic equilibrium. We find a fiducial model that mimics the overall morphology of the shock structures, has a total mass of 1.6 × 1015 M⊙ and a mass ratio of 1.76. For this model, the derived Mach number for the northern shock is 4.5. This is almost a factor 2 higher compared to the observational determination of the Mach number using X-ray observations or measurements of the radio injection spectral index. We could not find numerical models that both fit the X-ray properties and yielded such low Mach numbers. We discuss various ways of understanding this difference and argue that deep X-ray observations of CIZA J2242.8+5301 will be able to test our model and reconcile the differences.

Numerical Modeling of Hailstorms and Hailstone Growth. Part III: Simulation of an Alberta Hailstorm--Natural and Seeded Cases.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farley, Richard D.

1987-07-01

This paper reports on simulations of a multicellular hailstorm case observed during the 1983 Alberta Hail Project. The field operations on that day concentrated on two successive feeder cells which were subjected to controlled seeding experiments. The fist of these cells received the placebo treatment and the second was seeded with dry ice. The principal tool of this study is a modified version of the two-dimensional, time dependent hail category model described in Part I of this series of papers. It is with this model that hail growth processes are investigated, including the simulated effects of cloud seeding techniques as practiced in Alberta.The model simulation of the natural case produces a very good replication of the observed storm, particularly the placebo feeder cell. This is evidenced, in particular, by the high degree of fidelity of the observed and modeled radar reflectivity in terms of magnitudes, structure, and evolution. The character of the hailfall at the surface and the scale of the storm are captured nicely by the model, although cloud-top heights are generally too high, particularly for the mature storm system.Seeding experiments similar to those conducted in the field have also been simulated. These involve seeding the feeder cell early in its active development phase with dry ice (CO2) or silver iodide (AgI) introduced near cloud top. The model simulations of these seeded cases capture some of the observed seeding signatures detected by radar and aircraft. In these model experiments, CO2 seeding produced a stronger response than AgI seeding relative to inhibiting hail formation. For both seeded cases, production of precipitating ice was initially enhanced by the seeding, but retarded slightly in the later stages, the net result being modest increases in surface rainfall, with hail reduced slightly. In general, the model simulations support several subhypotheses of the operational strategy of the Alberta Research Council regarding the earlier formation of ice, snow, and graupel due to seeding.

Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoma, Christina; Schneider, Werner; Masbou, Matthieu; Bott, Andreas

2012-05-01

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-1996 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Browell, E. V.

2000-01-01

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude northern lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS); the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occultation instrument. Time series for the different data sets are consistent with each other, and diverge from model time series during December and January. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be much less sensitive to the model photochemistry than to the model vertical transport, which depends on the model vertical motion as well as the model vertical gradient. We evaluate the dependence of model ozone evolution on the model ozone gradient by comparing simulations with different initial conditions for ozone. The modeled ozone throughout December and January most closely resembles observed ozone when the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. We make a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in the vertical advection using diabatic trajectory calculations. The net transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The observed and modeled ozone time series during December and January are consistent when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS): Documentation of a Groundwater-Flow Model Constructed to Assess Water Availability in the Mississippi Embayment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Brian R.; Hart, Rheannon M.

2009-01-01

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) was conducted with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. This report documents the construction and calibration of a finite-difference groundwater model for use as a tool to quantify groundwater availability within the Mississippi embayment. To approximate the differential equation, the MERAS model was constructed with the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference code, MODFLOW-2005; the preconditioned conjugate gradient solver within MODFLOW-2005 was used for the numerical solution technique. The model area boundary is approximately 78,000 square miles and includes eight States with approximately 6,900 miles of simulated streams, 70,000 well locations, and 10 primary hydrogeologic units. The finite-difference grid consists of 414 rows, 397 columns, and 13 layers. Each model cell is 1 square mile with varying thickness by cell and by layer. The simulation period extends from January 1, 1870, to April 1, 2007, for a total of 137 years and 69 stress periods. The first stress period is simulated as steady state to represent predevelopment conditions. Areal recharge is applied throughout the MERAS model area using the MODFLOW-2005 Recharge Package. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells are simulated using the Multi-Node Well Package. There are 43 streams simulated by the MERAS model. Each stream or river in the model area was simulated using the Streamflow-Routing Package. The perimeter of the model area and the base of the flow system are represented as no-flow boundaries. The downgradient limit of each model layer is a no-flow boundary, which approximates the extent of water with less than 10,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The MERAS model was calibrated by making manual changes to parameter values and examining residuals for hydraulic heads and streamflow. Additional calibration was achieved through alternate use of UCODE-2005 and PEST. Simulated heads were compared to 55,786 hydraulic-head measurements from 3,245 wells in the MERAS model area. Values of root mean square error between simulated and observed hydraulic heads of all observations ranged from 8.33 feet in 1919 to 47.65 feet in 1951, though only six root mean square error values are greater than 40 feet for the entire simulation period. Simulated streamflow generally is lower than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow less than 1,000 cubic feet per second, and greater than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow more than 1,000 cubic feet per second. Simulated streamflow is underpredicted for 18 observations and overpredicted for 10 observations in the model. These differences in streamflow illustrate the large uncertainty in model inputs such as predevelopment recharge, overland flow, pumpage (from stream and aquifer), precipitation, and observation weights. The groundwater-flow budget indicates changes in flow into (inflows) and out of (outflows) the model area during the pregroundwater-irrigation period (pre-1870) to 2007. Total flow (sum of inflows or outflows) through the model ranged from about 600 million gallons per day prior to development to 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the simulation. The pumpage from wells represents the largest outflow components with a net rate of 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the model simulation in 2006. Groundwater outflows are offset primarily by inflow from aquifer storage and recharge.

Assessment of mass detection performance in contrast enhanced digital mammography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, Ann-Katherine; de Carvalho, Pablo M.; Li, Zhijin; Dromain, Clarisse; Muller, Serge

2015-03-01

We address the detectability of contrast-agent enhancing masses for contrast-agent enhanced spectral mammography (CESM), a dual-energy technique providing functional projection images of breast tissue perfusion and vascularity using simulated CESM images. First, the realism of simulated CESM images from anthropomorphic breast software phantoms generated with a software X-ray imaging platform was validated. Breast texture was characterized by power-law coefficients calculated in data sets of real clinical and simulated images. We also performed a 2-alternative forced choice (2-AFC) psychophysical experiment whereby simulated and real images were presented side-by-side to an experienced radiologist to test if real images could be distinguished from the simulated images. It was found that texture in our simulated CESM images has a fairly realistic appearance. Next, the relative performance of human readers and previously developed mathematical observers was assessed for the detection of iodine-enhancing mass lesions containing different contrast agent concentrations. A four alternative-forced-choice (4 AFC) task was designed; the task for the model and human observer was to detect which one of the four simulated DE recombined images contained an iodineenhancing mass. Our results showed that the NPW and NPWE models largely outperform human performance. After introduction of an internal noise component, both observers approached human performance. The CHO observer performs slightly worse than the average human observer. There is still work to be done in improving model observers as predictors of human-observer performance. Larger trials could also improve our test statistics. We hope that in the future, this framework of software breast phantoms, virtual image acquisition and processing, and mathematical observers can be beneficial to optimize CESM imaging techniques.

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

Simulations of arctic mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE

DOE PAGES

Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2008-02-27

[1] Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with the NCAR Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the GFDL Atmospheric Model version 2 (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed using analysis data from numerical weather prediction centers. CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase cloud fraction and cannot realistically simulate the variations of liquid water fraction with temperature and cloud height due to its oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer cloud fraction while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. The simulation of themore » boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used (CAM3LIU). The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initialization. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. AM2 simulated cloud fraction and LWP are sensitive to the change in cloud ice number concentrations used in the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process while CAM3LIU only shows moderate sensitivity in its cloud fields to this change. Furthermore, this paper shows that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is important for these models to correctly simulate the observed features of mixed-phase clouds.« less

Simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven

2008-02-01

Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with the NCAR Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the GFDL Atmospheric Model version 2 (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed using analysis data from numerical weather prediction centers. CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase cloud fraction and cannot realistically simulate the variations of liquid water fraction with temperature and cloud height due to its oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer cloud fraction while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. The simulation of the boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used (CAM3LIU). The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initialization. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. AM2 simulated cloud fraction and LWP are sensitive to the change in cloud ice number concentrations used in the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process while CAM3LIU only shows moderate sensitivity in its cloud fields to this change. This paper shows that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is important for these models to correctly simulate the observed features of mixed-phase clouds.

Evaluation of cloud-resolving and limited area model intercomparison simulations using TWP-ICE observations: 1. Deep convective updraft properties: Eval. of TWP-ICE CRMs and LAMs Pt. 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varble, Adam; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridlind, Ann M.

2014-12-18

Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observed radar reflectivity fields and dual-Doppler retrievals of vertical wind speeds in an attempt to explain published results showing a high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity aloft. This high bias results from ice water content being large, which is a product of large, strong convective updrafts, although hydrometeor size distribution assumptions modulate the size of this bias.more » Making snow mass more realistically proportional to D2 rather than D3 eliminates unrealistically large snow reflectivities over 40 dBZ in some simulations. Graupel, unlike snow, produces high biased reflectivity in all simulations, which is partly a result of parameterized microphysics, but also partly a result of overly intense simulated updrafts. Peak vertical velocities in deep convective updrafts are greater than dual-Doppler retrieved values, especially in the upper troposphere. Freezing of liquid condensate, often rain, lofted above the freezing level in simulated updraft cores greatly contributes to these excessive upper tropospheric vertical velocities. The strongest simulated updraft cores are nearly undiluted, with some of the strongest showing supercell characteristics during the multicellular (pre-squall) stage of the event. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 900 to 100 meters slightly weakens deep updraft vertical velocity and moderately decreases the amount of condensate aloft, but not enough to match observational retrievals. Therefore, overly intense simulated updrafts may additionally be a product of unrealistic interactions between convective dynamics, parameterized microphysics, and the large-scale model forcing that promote different convective strengths than observed.« less

Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buda, Rodolphe

2009-01-01

This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

Targeted numerical simulations of binary black holes for GW170104

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J.; Lange, J.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Lousto, C. O.; Campanelli, M.; Williamson, A. R.; Zlochower, Y.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Clark, J. A.; Evans, C.; Ferguson, D.; Ghonge, S.; Jani, K.; Khamesra, B.; Laguna, P.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Boyle, M.; García, A.; Hemberger, D. A.; Kidder, L. E.; Kumar, P.; Lovelace, G.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Scheel, M. A.; Teukolsky, S. A.

2018-03-01

In response to LIGO's observation of GW170104, we performed a series of full numerical simulations of binary black holes, each designed to replicate likely realizations of its dynamics and radiation. These simulations have been performed at multiple resolutions and with two independent techniques to solve Einstein's equations. For the nonprecessing and precessing simulations, we demonstrate the two techniques agree mode by mode, at a precision substantially in excess of statistical uncertainties in current LIGO's observations. Conversely, we demonstrate our full numerical solutions contain information which is not accurately captured with the approximate phenomenological models commonly used to infer compact binary parameters. To quantify the impact of these differences on parameter inference for GW170104 specifically, we compare the predictions of our simulations and these approximate models to LIGO's observations of GW170104.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, R.; Hong, Seungkyu K.; Kwon, Hyoung-Ahn

We used a 3-D regional atmospheric chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem) to examine processes that determine O3 in East Asia; in particular, we focused on O3 dry deposition, which is an uncertain research area due to insufficient observation and numerical studies in East Asia. Here, we compare two widely used dry deposition parameterization schemes, Wesely and M3DRY, which are used in the WRF-Chem and CMAQ models, respectively. The O3 dry deposition velocities simulated using the two aforementioned schemes under identical meteorological conditions show considerable differences (a factor of 2) due to surface resistance parameterization discrepancies. The O3 concentration differed by upmore » to 10 ppbv for the monthly mean. The simulated and observed dry deposition velocities were compared, which showed that the Wesely scheme model is consistent with the observations and successfully reproduces the observed diurnal variation. We conduct several sensitivity simulations by changing the land use data, the surface resistance of the water and the model’s spatial resolution to examine the factors that affect O3 concentrations in East Asia. As shown, the model was considerably sensitive to the input parameters, which indicates a high uncertainty for such O3 dry deposition simulations. Observations are necessary to constrain the dry deposition parameterization and input data to improve the East Asia air quality models.« less

GCM simulations of Titan's middle and lower atmosphere and comparison to observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Lunine, Jonathan I.; Russell, Joellen L.

2015-04-01

Simulation results are presented from a new general circulation model (GCM) of Titan, the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which couples the Flexible Modeling System (FMS) spectral dynamical core to a suite of external/sub-grid-scale physics. These include a new non-gray radiative transfer module that takes advantage of recent data from Cassini-Huygens, large-scale condensation and quasi-equilibrium moist convection schemes, a surface model with "bucket" hydrology, and boundary layer turbulent diffusion. The model produces a realistic temperature structure from the surface to the lower mesosphere, including a stratopause, as well as satisfactory superrotation. The latter is shown to depend on the dynamical core's ability to build up angular momentum from surface torques. Simulated latitudinal temperature contrasts are adequate, compared to observations, and polar temperature anomalies agree with observations. In the lower atmosphere, the insolation distribution is shown to strongly impact turbulent fluxes, and surface heating is maximum at mid-latitudes. Surface liquids are unstable at mid- and low-latitudes, and quickly migrate poleward. The simulated humidity profile and distribution of surface temperatures, compared to observations, corroborate the prevalence of dry conditions at low latitudes. Polar cloud activity is well represented, though the observed mid-latitude clouds remain somewhat puzzling, and some formation alternatives are suggested.

Episodes of Cross-Polar Transport in the Arctic Troposphere During July 2008 as Seen from Models, Satellite, and Aircraft Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sodemann, H.; Pommier, M.; Arnold, S. R.; Monks, S. A.; Stebel, K.; Burkhart, J. F.; Hair, J. W.; Diskin, G. S.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.-F.;

Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model.

PubMed

Pommer, Tobias; Oh, Jung Hun; Munck Af Rosenschöld, Per; Deasy, Joseph O

2017-01-01

Prostate motion during radiation therapy (ie, intrafraction motion) can cause unwanted loss of radiation dose to the prostate and increased dose to the surrounding organs at risk. A compact but general statistical description of this motion could be useful for simulation of radiation therapy delivery or margin calculations. We investigated whether prostate motion could be modeled with a random walk model. Prostate motion recorded during 548 radiation therapy fractions in 17 patients was analyzed and used for input in a random walk prostate motion model. The recorded motion was categorized on the basis of whether any transient excursions (ie, rapid prostate motion in the anterior and superior direction followed by a return) occurred in the trace and transient motion. This was separately modeled as a large step in the anterior/superior direction followed by a returning large step. Random walk simulations were conducted with and without added artificial transient motion using either motion data from all observed traces or only traces without transient excursions as model input, respectively. A general estimate of motion was derived with reasonable agreement between simulated and observed traces, especially during the first 5 minutes of the excursion-free simulations. Simulated and observed diffusion coefficients agreed within 0.03, 0.2 and 0.3 mm 2 /min in the left/right, superior/inferior, and anterior/posterior directions, respectively. A rapid increase in variance at the start of observed traces was difficult to reproduce and seemed to represent the patient's need to adjust before treatment. This could be estimated somewhat using artificial transient motion. Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during delivery of radiation therapy.

Modeling Trace Pollutants in the North Atlantic Free Troposphere and Comparisons with Observed Pollutant Concentrations at Pico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, S.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Olsen, S. C.; Mazzoleni, L. R.; Mazzoleni, C.; Helmig, D.; Fialho, P. J.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on modeling free tropospheric aerosol and co-pollutants after trans-Atlantic transport of North American air pollution to the Pico Mountain Observatory (PMO) using the 3D global chemistry climate model CAM-Chem (version 4) and analyzing the model simulations relative to in-situ summertime measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and black carbon (BC) at the Pico Mountain Observatory (PMO) located in the Azores, Portugal from 2009 - 2011. The elevation of PMO ( 2225m above mean sea level) and steep slope of the surrounding mountain put the station above the regional marine boundary layer, enabling frequent sampling of free tropospheric air. Because of its unique location, air sampled at the station is rarely affected by local emissions or the ocean, and represents air masses transported over long distances to the site. The study used the Community Atmosphere Model CAM4, which is a part of the Community Earth System model version 1 (CESM1). HYSPLIT backward trajectories ran using the web-based portal READY was used to study airflow trajectory at PMO and showed that more than 50% of the air mass originated from North America. The model simulations were compared with observational data (from April - September) at PMO for the years 2009 through 2011. The fire data for the USA and Canada was compiled from the reports of National Interagency Coordination Center and Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, respectively. Time series analyses and orthogonal regression were used to compare model simulations with observations. The comparison shows simulations give a good representation of the observations, e.g., the mean concentration of CO in 2009 is 91.76 ppb and 95.05 ppb respectively from the simulation and the observations. Observed elevated pollutant concentrations also coincide with the maxima captured by the simulations. To assess the impact of North American outflow on pollution at PMO, scatter technique was used to calculate enhancement ratio ΔO3/ΔCO and ΔBC/ΔCO. The results of this study indicate that the global model can capture long-range transport events, from North America towards Europe, and simulates pollutant levels measured in PMO. The result also confirmed that North American outflow is largely responsible for the high pollutant concentration events that have been measured at PMO.

Direct Comparisons of Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties Simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 with ARM SPartICus Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Diao, M.; Gettelman, A.

2016-12-01

Cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere play a key role in the Earth radiation budget, and their radiative forcing depends strongly on number concentration and size distribution of ice particles. In this study we evaluate the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4 (CAM5) against the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPartICus) observations over the ARM South Great Plain (SGP) site between January and June 2010. Model simulation is performed using specific dynamics to preserve prognostic meteorology (U, V, and T) close to GEOS-5 analysis. Model results collocated with SPartICus flight tracks spatially and temporally are directly compared with the observations. We compare CAM5 simulated ice crystal number concentration (Ni), ice particle size distribution, ice water content (IWC), and Ni co-variances with temperature and vertical velocity with the statistics from SPartICus observations. All analyses are restricted to T ≤ -40°C and in a 6°×6° area centered at SGP. Model sensitivity tests are performed with different ice nucleation mechanisms and with the effects of pre-existing ice crystals to reflect the uncertainties in cirrus parameterizations. In addition, different threshold size for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs) is also tested. We find that (1) a distinctly high Ni (100-1000 L-1) often occurred in the observations but is significantly underestimated in the model, which may be due to the smaller relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) in the simulation that could suppress the homogeneous nucleation, (2) a positive correlation exists between Ni and vertical velocity variance (σw) at horizontal scales up to 50 km in the observation, and the model can reproduce this relationship but tends to underestimate Ni when σw is relatively small, (3) simulated Ni differs greatly among the sensitive experiments, and simulated IWC is also sensitive to the cirrus parameterizations but to a lesser extent. Moreover, the model produces much better ice particle sizes in terms of number-mean diameter (Dnm) but significantly underestimate Ni and IWC for all the designed sensitive experiments. Our results suggest that better representation of environmental conditions (e.g., RHi and water vapor) is needed to improve the formation and evolution of ice clouds in the model.

Seasonal changes in the tropospheric carbon monoxide profile over the remote Southern Hemisphere evaluated using multi-model simulations and aircraft observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. A.; Wilson, S. R.; Zeng, G.; Williams, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.; Langenfelds, R. L.; Krummel, P. B.; Steele, L. P.

2014-11-01

We use aircraft observations from the 1991-2000 Cape Grim Overflight Program and the 2009-2011 HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO), together with output from four chemical transport and chemistry-climate models, to better understand the vertical distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) in the remote Southern Hemisphere. Observed CO vertical gradients at Cape Grim vary from 1.6 ppbv km-1 in austral autumn to 2.2 ppbv km-1 in austral spring. CO vertical profiles from Cape Grim are remarkably consistent with those observed over the southern mid-latitudes Pacific during HIPPO, despite major differences in time periods, flight locations, and sampling strategies between the two datasets. Using multi-model simulations from the Southern Hemisphere Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP), we find that observed CO vertical gradients in austral winter-spring are well-represented in models and can be attributed to primary CO emissions from biomass burning. In austral summer-autumn, inter-model variability in simulated gradients is much larger, and two of the four SHMIP models significantly underestimate the Cape Grim observations. Sensitivity simulations show that CO vertical gradients at this time of year are driven by long-range transport of secondary CO of biogenic origin, implying a large sensitivity of the remote Southern Hemisphere troposphere to biogenic emissions and chemistry. Inter-model variability in summer-autumn gradients can be explained by differences in both the chemical mechanisms that drive secondary production of CO from biogenic sources and the vertical transport that redistributes this CO throughout the Southern Hemisphere. This suggests that the CO vertical gradient in the remote Southern Hemisphere provides a sensitive test of the chemistry and transport processes that define the chemical state of the background atmosphere.

Evaluation of the new EMAC-SWIFT chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheffler, Janice; Langematz, Ulrike; Wohltmann, Ingo; Rex, Markus

2016-04-01

It is well known that the representation of atmospheric ozone chemistry in weather and climate models is essential for a realistic simulation of the atmospheric state. Including atmospheric ozone chemistry into climate simulations is usually done by prescribing a climatological ozone field, by including a fast linear ozone scheme into the model or by using a climate model with complex interactive chemistry. While prescribed climatological ozone fields are often not aligned with the modelled dynamics, a linear ozone scheme may not be applicable for a wide range of climatological conditions. Although interactive chemistry provides a realistic representation of atmospheric chemistry such model simulations are computationally very expensive and hence not suitable for ensemble simulations or simulations with multiple climate change scenarios. A new approach to represent atmospheric chemistry in climate models which can cope with non-linearities in ozone chemistry and is applicable to a wide range of climatic states is the Semi-empirical Weighted Iterative Fit Technique (SWIFT) that is driven by reanalysis data and has been validated against observational satellite data and runs of a full Chemistry and Transport Model. SWIFT has recently been implemented into the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) chemistry climate model that uses a modular approach to climate modelling where individual model components can be switched on and off. Here, we show first results of EMAC-SWIFT simulations and validate these against EMAC simulations using the complex interactive chemistry scheme MECCA, and against observations.

Comparison of predictive estimates of high-latitude electrodynamics with observations of global-scale Birkeland currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Brian J.; Korth, Haje; Welling, Daniel T.; Merkin, Viacheslav G.; Wiltberger, Michael J.; Raeder, Joachim; Barnes, Robin J.; Waters, Colin L.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Rastaetter, Lutz

2017-02-01

Two of the geomagnetic storms for the Space Weather Prediction Center Geospace Environment Modeling challenge occurred after data were first acquired by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We compare Birkeland currents from AMPERE with predictions from four models for the 4-5 April 2010 and 5-6 August 2011 storms. The four models are the Weimer (2005b) field-aligned current statistical model, the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model MHD simulation, and the Space Weather Modeling Framework MHD simulation. The MHD simulations were run as described in Pulkkinen et al. (2013) and the results obtained from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The total radial Birkeland current, ITotal, and the distribution of radial current density, Jr, for all models are compared with AMPERE results. While the total currents are well correlated, the quantitative agreement varies considerably. The Jr distributions reveal discrepancies between the models and observations related to the latitude distribution, morphologies, and lack of nightside current systems in the models. The results motivate enhancing the simulations first by increasing the simulation resolution and then by examining the relative merits of implementing more sophisticated ionospheric conductance models, including ionospheric outflows or other omitted physical processes. Some aspects of the system, including substorm timing and location, may remain challenging to simulate, implying a continuing need for real-time specification.

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, L.; Pawson, S.; Zhu, Z.; Nielsen, J. E.; Collatz, G. J.; Gregg, W. W.

2012-01-01

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

OpenSim: a musculoskeletal modeling and simulation framework for in silico investigations and exchange.

PubMed

Seth, Ajay; Sherman, Michael; Reinbolt, Jeffrey A; Delp, Scott L

Movement science is driven by observation, but observation alone cannot elucidate principles of human and animal movement. Biomechanical modeling and computer simulation complement observations and inform experimental design. Biological models are complex and specialized software is required for building, validating, and studying them. Furthermore, common access is needed so that investigators can contribute models to a broader community and leverage past work. We are developing OpenSim, a freely available musculoskeletal modeling and simulation application and libraries specialized for these purposes, by providing: musculoskeletal modeling elements, such as biomechanical joints, muscle actuators, ligament forces, compliant contact, and controllers; and tools for fitting generic models to subject-specific data, performing inverse kinematics and forward dynamic simulations. OpenSim performs an array of physics-based analyses to delve into the behavior of musculoskeletal models by employing Simbody, an efficient and accurate multibody system dynamics code. Models are publicly available and are often reused for multiple investigations because they provide a rich set of behaviors that enables different lines of inquiry. This report will discuss one model developed to study walking and applied to gain deeper insights into muscle function in pathological gait and during running. We then illustrate how simulations can test fundamental hypotheses and focus the aims of in vivo experiments, with a postural stability platform and human model that provide a research environment for performing human posture experiments in silico . We encourage wide adoption of OpenSim for community exchange of biomechanical models and methods and welcome new contributors.

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

PubMed Central

Sippel, Sebastian; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Hauhs, Michael; Bodesheim, Paul; Kaminski, Thomas; Gans, Fabian; Rosso, Osvaldo A.

2016-01-01

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observed and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. We demonstrate here that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics. PMID:27764187

Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Taesam

2018-05-01

Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

Calibrated Hydrothermal Parameters, Barrow, Alaska, 2013

DOE Data Explorer

Atchley, Adam; Painter, Scott; Harp, Dylan; Coon, Ethan; Wilson, Cathy; Liljedahl, Anna; Romanovsky, Vladimir

2015-01-29

A model-observation-experiment process (ModEx) is used to generate three 1D models of characteristic micro-topographical land-formations, which are capable of simulating present active thaw layer (ALT) from current climate conditions. Each column was used in a coupled calibration to identify moss, peat and mineral soil hydrothermal properties to be used in up-scaled simulations. Observational soil temperature data from a tundra site located near Barrow, AK (Area C) is used to calibrate thermal properties of moss, peat, and sandy loam soil to be used in the multiphysics Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) models. Simulation results are a list of calibrated hydrothermal parameters for moss, peat, and mineral soil hydrothermal parameters.

Computer simulation of fibrillation threshold measurements and electrophysiologic testing procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grumbach, M. P.; Saxberg, B. E.; Cohen, R. J.

1987-01-01

A finite element model of cardiac conduction was used to simulate two experimental protocols: 1) fibrillation threshold measurements and 2) clinical electrophysiologic (EP) testing procedures. The model consisted of a cylindrical lattice whose properties were determined by four parameters: element length, conduction velocity, mean refractory period, and standard deviation of refractory periods. Different stimulation patterns were applied to the lattice under a given set of lattice parameter values and the response of the model was observed through a simulated electrocardiogram. The studies confirm that the model can account for observations made in experimental fibrillation threshold measurements and in clinical EP testing protocols.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; ...

2015-01-09

A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar tomore » observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO 2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.« less

Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-15

cycle under volcanically clean aerosol conditions. Those models that do not reproduce a quasi- biennial oscillation ( QBO ) also include a relaxation...forc- ing toward the observed QBO (Giorgetta and Bengtsson 1999) for the SCN2 simulations. Table 2 summarizes the simulations used in this study and any...However simulations from three of the models included a future solar forcing and two models included an artificial QBO forcing in the tropics (see

Numerical simulation of dendrite growth in nickel-based superalloy and validated by in-situ observation using high temperature confocal laser scanning microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xuewei; Xu, Qingyan; Liu, Baicheng

2017-12-01

Dendritic structures are the predominant microstructural constituents of nickel-based superalloys, an understanding of the dendrite growth is required in order to obtain the desirable microstructure and improve the performance of castings. For this reason, numerical simulation method and an in-situ observation technology by employing high temperature confocal laser scanning microscopy (HT-CLSM) were used to investigate dendrite growth during solidification process. A combined cellular automaton-finite difference (CA-FD) model allowing for the prediction of dendrite growth of binary alloys was developed. The algorithm of cells capture was modified, and a deterministic cellular automaton (DCA) model was proposed to describe neighborhood tracking. The dendrite and detail morphology, especially hundreds of dendrites distribution at a large scale and three-dimensional (3-D) polycrystalline growth, were successfully simulated based on this model. The dendritic morphologies of samples before and after HT-CLSM were both observed by optical microscope (OM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The experimental observations presented a reasonable agreement with the simulation results. It was also found that primary or secondary dendrite arm spacing, and segregation pattern were significantly influenced by dendrite growth. Furthermore, the directional solidification (DS) dendritic evolution behavior and detail morphology were also simulated based on the proposed model, and the simulation results also agree well with experimental results.

Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone: However, models will tend to overpredict O3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

1990-10-01

Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. We illustrate basic processes with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale. In the first, cook-then-mix, simulation the nitrogen oxides and other burning-produced pollutants are confined to a persistently subsident fair weather boundary layer for several days, and the resultant ozone is found to have only a transient influence on the whole column of tropospheric ozone. In the second, mix-then-cook, simulation the effect of typical cumulonimbus convection, which vents an actively polluted boundary layer, is to make a persistent increase in the tropical ozone column. Such a broadly increased ozone column is observed over the the populated "continental" portion of the tropics. A third simulation averages all emission, transport, and deposition parameters, representing one column in a global tropospheric model that does not simulate individual weather events. This "oversmoothing" simulation produces 60% more ozone than observed or otherwise modeled. Qualitatively similar overprediction is suggested for all models which average significantly in time or space, as all need do. Clearly, simulating these O3 levels will depend sensitively on knowledge of the timing of emissions and transport.

Observation and numerical modeling of tidal dune dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doré, Arnaud; Bonneton, Philippe; Marieu, Vincent; Garlan, Thierry

2018-05-01

Tidal sand dune dynamics is observed for two tidal cycles in the Arcachon tidal inlet, southwest France. An array of instruments is deployed to measure bathymetric and current variations along dune profiles. Based on the measurements, dune crest horizontal and vertical displacements are quantified and show important dynamics in phase with tidal currents. We observed superimposed ripples on the dune stoss side and front, migrating and changing polarity as tidal currents reverse. A 2D RANS numerical model is used to simulate the morphodynamic evolution of a flat non-cohesive sand bed submitted to a tidal current. The model reproduces the bed evolution until a field of sand bedforms is obtained that are comparable with observed superimposed ripples in terms of geometrical dimensions and dynamics. The model is then applied to simulate the dynamics of a field of large sand dunes of similar size as the dunes observed in situ. In both cases, simulation results compare well with measurements qualitatively and quantitatively. This research allows for a better understanding of tidal sand dune and superimposed ripple morphodynamics and opens new perspectives for the use of numerical models to predict their evolution.

Biogeochemical Protocols and Diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather;

Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; Griffies, Stephen M.; John, Jasmin G.; Joos, Fortunat; Levin, Ingeborg; Lindsay, Keith; Matear, Richard J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Mouchet, Anne; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Schlitzer, Reiner; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Tanhua, Toste; Yool, Andrew

2017-06-01

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalsøren, Stig B.; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Stohl, Andreas; Pisso, Ignacio; Schwietzke, Stefan; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Helmig, Detlev; Reimann, Stefan; Sauvage, Stéphane; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Read, Katie A.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Punjabi, Shalini; Wallasch, Markus

2018-03-01

Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5-13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.

Groundwater-level change and evaluation of simulated water levels for irrigated areas in Lahontan Valley, Churchill County, west-central Nevada, 1992 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David W.; Buto, Susan G.; Welborn, Toby L.

2016-09-14

The acquisition and transfer of water rights to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley, Nevada, has caused concern over the potential effects on shallow aquifer water levels. In 1992, water levels in Lahontan Valley were measured to construct a water-table map of the shallow aquifer prior to the effects of water-right transfers mandated by the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone Tribal Settlement Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3289). From 1992 to 2012, approximately 11,810 water-righted acres, or 34,356 acre-feet of water, were acquired and transferred to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley. This report documents changes in water levels measured during the period of water-right transfers and presents an evaluation of five groundwater-flow model scenarios that simulated water-level changes in Lahontan Valley in response to water-right transfers and a reduction in irrigation season length by 50 percent.Water levels measured in 98 wells from 2012 to 2013 were used to construct a water-table map. Water levels in 73 of the 98 wells were compared with water levels measured in 1992 and used to construct a water-level change map. Water-level changes in the 73 wells ranged from -16.2 to 4.1 feet over the 20-year period. Rises in water levels in Lahontan Valley may correspond to annual changes in available irrigation water, increased canal flows after the exceptionally dry and shortened irrigation season of 1992, and the increased conveyance of water rights transferred to Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Water-level declines generally occurred near the boundary of irrigated areas and may be associated with groundwater pumping, water-right transfers, and inactive surface-water storage reservoirs. The largest water-level declines were in the area near Carson Lake.Groundwater-level response to water-right transfers was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed water-level changes for periods representing water-right transfers and a shortened irrigation season in areas near Fallon and Stillwater, Nevada. In the Stillwater modeled area, water rights associated with nearly 50 percent of the irrigated land were transferred from 1992 to 1998, represented by the model scenario reduction in groundwater recharge by 50 percent. The scenario resulted in a simulated average decline of 0.6 foot; average observed water-level change for the modeled area was estimated to be 0.0 foot, or no change. In the Fallon modeled area, transfers of water rights associated with 180 acres of land occurred from 1994 to 2008. The transfer is most similar to the scenario for removal of 320 acres of irrigated land. The model scenario resulted in simulated water-level declines of 0.1; water levels measured from 1994 to 2012 indicate no significant trends in water levels, or approximately zero change in water levels, for the Fallon modeled area.The model scenarios included the simulation of a irrigation season shortened by 50 percent, which was determined to have occurred in the 1992 irrigation season in both modeled areas. The shortening of the irrigation season in the Fallon modeled area resulted in simulated water-level declines of 1.1 feet; observed declines were estimated to be 1.3 feet. The Stillwater model simulations resulted in a simulated decline of 1.4 feet, and observed water levels declined an estimated 2.3 feet for the area. The estimated difference between simulated and observed water levels are 0.2 and 0.9 foot for the Fallon and Stillwater modeled areas, respectively. Observed water-level changes were generally within one standard deviation of changes from model simulations, based on the selected periods of comparison. Simulated and observed water-level changes agree well, generally within 1 foot; however, the model scenarios were only approximately similar to the observed conditions, and periods of comparison were generally shorter for the observed periods and included additional cumulative effects of water-right transfers. Climate variability was not considered in the model scenarios.

Planetary Boundary Layer Simulation Using TASS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schowalter, David G.; DeCroix, David S.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Arya, S. Pal; Kaplan, Michael

1996-01-01

Boundary conditions to an existing large-eddy simulation model have been changed in order to simulate turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer. Several options are now available, including the use of a surface energy balance. In addition, we compare convective boundary layer simulations with the Wangara and Minnesota field experiments as well as with other model results. We find excellent agreement of modelled mean profiles of wind and temperature with observations and good agreement for velocity variances. Neutral boundary simulation results are compared with theory and with previously used models. Agreement with theory is reasonable, while agreement with previous models is excellent.

Mars boundary layer simulations - Comparison with Viking lander and entry observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.; Houben, H. C.

1991-01-01

Diurnal variations of wind and temperature in the lower Martian atmosphere are simulated with a boundary layer model that includes radiative heating in a dusty CO2 atmosphere, turbulence generated by convection and/or shear stresses, a surface heat budget, and time varying pressure forces due to sloping terrain. Model results for early northern summer are compared with Viking lander observations to determine the model's strengths and weaknesses, and suitability as an engineering model.

Simulation of Asian monsoon seasonal variations with climate model R42L9/LASG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zaizhi; Wu, Guoxiong; Wu, Tongwen; Yu, Rucong

2004-12-01

The seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon were explored by applying the atmospheric general circulation model R42L9 that was developed recently at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP/CAS). The 20-yr (1979 1998) simulation was done using the prescribed 20-yr monthly SST and sea-ice data as required by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II in the model. The monthly precipitation and monsoon circulations were analyzed and compared with the observations to validate the model’s performance in simulating the climatological mean and seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon. The results show that the model can capture the main features of the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of precipitation in the Indian and East Asian monsoon areas. The model also reproduced the basic patterns of monsoon circulation. However, some biases exist in this model. The simulation of the heating over the Tibetan Plateau in summer was too strong. The overestimated heating caused a stronger East Asian monsoon and a weaker Indian monsoon than the observations. In the circulation fields, the South Asia high was stronger and located over the Tibetan Plateau. The western Pacific subtropical high was extended westward, which is in accordance with the observational results when the heating over the Tibetan Plateau is stronger. Consequently, the simulated rainfall around this area and in northwest China was heavier than in observations, but in the Indian monsoon area and west Pacific the rainfall was somewhat deficient.

Model methodology for estimating pesticide concentration extremes based on sparse monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2018-03-22

This report describes a new methodology for using sparse (weekly or less frequent observations) and potentially highly censored pesticide monitoring data to simulate daily pesticide concentrations and associated quantities used for acute and chronic exposure assessments, such as the annual maximum daily concentration. The new methodology is based on a statistical model that expresses log-transformed daily pesticide concentration in terms of a seasonal wave, flow-related variability, long-term trend, and serially correlated errors. Methods are described for estimating the model parameters, generating conditional simulations of daily pesticide concentration given sparse (weekly or less frequent) and potentially highly censored observations, and estimating concentration extremes based on the conditional simulations. The model can be applied to datasets with as few as 3 years of record, as few as 30 total observations, and as few as 10 uncensored observations. The model was applied to atrazine, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, and fipronil data for U.S. Geological Survey pesticide sampling sites with sufficient data for applying the model. A total of 112 sites were analyzed for atrazine, 38 for carbaryl, 34 for chlorpyrifos, and 33 for fipronil. The results are summarized in this report; and, R functions, described in this report and provided in an accompanying model archive, can be used to fit the model parameters and generate conditional simulations of daily concentrations for use in investigations involving pesticide exposure risk and uncertainty.

Life Cycle of Tropical Convection and Anvil in Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarlane, S. A.; Hagos, S. M.; Comstock, J. M.

2011-12-01

Tropical convective clouds are important elements of the hydrological cycle and produce extensive cirrus anvils that strongly affect the tropical radiative energy balance. To improve simulations of the global water and energy cycles and accurately predict both precipitation and cloud radiative feedbacks, models need to realistically simulate the lifecycle of tropical convection, including the formation and radiative properties of ice anvil clouds. By combining remote sensing datasets from precipitation and cloud radars at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Darwin site with geostationary satellite data, we can develop observational understanding of the lifetime of convective systems and the links between the properties of convective systems and their associated anvil clouds. The relationships between convection and anvil in model simulations can then be compared to those seen in the observations to identify areas for improvement in the model simulations. We identify and track tropical convective systems in the Tropical Western Pacific using geostationary satellite observations. We present statistics of the tropical convective systems including size, age, and intensity and classify the lifecycle stage of each system as developing, mature, or dissipating. For systems that cross over the ARM Darwin site, information on convective intensity and anvil properties are obtained from the C-Pol precipitation radar and MMCR cloud radar, respectively, and are examined as a function of the system lifecycle. Initial results from applying the convective identification and tracking algorithm to a tropical simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run show that the model produces reasonable overall statistics of convective systems, but details of the life cycle (such as diurnal cycle, system tracks) differ from the observations. Further work will focus on the role of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the model's convective life cycle.

Constraints on hydrodynamical subgrid models from quasar absorption line studies of the simulated circumgalactic medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummels, Cameron B.; Bryan, Greg L.; Smith, Britton D.; Turk, Matthew J.

2013-04-01

Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy evolution are increasingly able to produce realistic galaxies, but the largest hurdle remaining is in constructing subgrid models that accurately describe the behaviour of stellar feedback. As an alternate way to test and calibrate such models, we propose to focus on the circumgalactic medium (CGM). To do so, we generate a suite of adaptive mesh refinement simulations for a Milky-Way-massed galaxy run to z = 0, systematically varying the feedback implementation. We then post-process the simulation data to compute the absorbing column density for a wide range of common atomic absorbers throughout the galactic halo, including H I, Mg II, Si II, Si III, Si IV, C IV, N V, O VI and O VII. The radial profiles of these atomic column densities are compared against several quasar absorption line studies to determine if one feedback prescription is favoured. We find that although our models match some of the observations (specifically those ions with lower ionization strengths), it is particularly difficult to match O VI observations. There is some indication that the models with increased feedback intensity are better matches. We demonstrate that sufficient metals exist in these haloes to reproduce the observed column density distribution in principle, but the simulated CGM lacks significant multiphase substructure and is generally too hot. Furthermore, we demonstrate the failings of inflow-only models (without energetic feedback) at populating the CGM with adequate metals to match observations even in the presence of multiphase structure. Additionally, we briefly investigate the evolution of the CGM from z = 3 to present. Overall, we find that quasar absorption line observations of the gas around galaxies provide a new and important constraint on feedback models.

Suppression of Antigen-Specific Lymphocyte Activation in Simulated Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, David; Pride, Michael W.; Brown, Eric L.; Risin, Diana; Pellis, Neal R.

1999-01-01

Various parameters of immune suppression are observed in astronauts during and after spaceflight, and in isolated immune cells in true and simulated microgravity. Specifically, polyclonal activation of T cells is severely suppressed in true and simulated microgravity. These recent findings with various polyclonal activators suggests a suppression of oligoclonal lymphocyte activation in microgravity. We utilized rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactors that simulate aspects of microgravity for cell cultures to analyze three models of antigen-specific activation. A mixed-lymphocyte reaction (MLR), as a model for a primary immune response; a tetanus toxoid (TT) response and a B. burgdorferi (Bb) response, as models of a secondary immune response, were all suppressed in the RWV bioreactor. Our findings confirm that the suppression of activation observed with polyclonal models also encompasses oligoclonal antigen-specific activation.

Event-driven simulation in SELMON: An overview of EDSE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouquette, Nicolas F.; Chien, Steve A.; Charest, Leonard, Jr.

1992-01-01

EDSE (event-driven simulation engine), a model-based event-driven simulator implemented for SELMON, a tool for sensor selection and anomaly detection in real-time monitoring is described. The simulator is used in conjunction with a causal model to predict future behavior of the model from observed data. The behavior of the causal model is interpreted as equivalent to the behavior of the physical system being modeled. An overview of the functionality of the simulator and the model-based event-driven simulation paradigm on which it is based is provided. Included are high-level descriptions of the following key properties: event consumption and event creation, iterative simulation, synchronization and filtering of monitoring data from the physical system. Finally, how EDSE stands with respect to the relevant open issues of discrete-event and model-based simulation is discussed.

A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-10-01

Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of predicted landfall locations compared with observations.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Evaluations of tropospheric aerosol properties simulated by the community earth system model with a sectional aerosol microphysics scheme

PubMed Central

Toon, Owen B.; Bardeen, Charles G.; Mills, Michael J.; Fan, Tianyi; English, Jason M.; Neely, Ryan R.

2015-01-01

Abstract A sectional aerosol model (CARMA) has been developed and coupled with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Aerosol microphysics, radiative properties, and interactions with clouds are simulated in the size‐resolving model. The model described here uses 20 particle size bins for each aerosol component including freshly nucleated sulfate particles, as well as mixed particles containing sulfate, primary organics, black carbon, dust, and sea salt. The model also includes five types of bulk secondary organic aerosols with four volatility bins. The overall cost of CESM1‐CARMA is approximately ∼2.6 times as much computer time as the standard three‐mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1‐MAM3) and twice as much computer time as the seven‐mode aerosol model in CESM1 (CESM1‐MAM7) using similar gas phase chemistry codes. Aerosol spatial‐temporal distributions are simulated and compared with a large set of observations from satellites, ground‐based measurements, and airborne field campaigns. Simulated annual average aerosol optical depths are lower than MODIS/MISR satellite observations and AERONET observations by ∼32%. This difference is within the uncertainty of the satellite observations. CESM1/CARMA reproduces sulfate aerosol mass within 8%, organic aerosol mass within 20%, and black carbon aerosol mass within 50% compared with a multiyear average of the IMPROVE/EPA data over United States, but differences vary considerably at individual locations. Other data sets show similar levels of comparison with model simulations. The model suggests that in addition to sulfate, organic aerosols also significantly contribute to aerosol mass in the tropical UTLS, which is consistent with limited data. PMID:27668039

MHD Modeling of the Sympathetic Eruptions Observed on August 1, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Downs, C.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.

2013-12-01

The multiple solar eruptions observed by SDO on August 1, 2010 present a special challenge to theoretical models of CME initiation. SDO captured in detail a remarkable chain of sympathetic eruptions that involved the entire visible hemisphere of the Sun (Schrijver et al. 2011). It consisted of several flares and six filament eruptions/CMEs, and triggered a geomagnetic storm on August 3 (de Toma et al. 2010). This series of eruptions was also observed by the two STEREO spacecraft. This collection of observations presents a unique opportunity to understand sympathetic eruptions theoretically. We have previously simulated the three principal filament eruptions (and their associated CMEs) that characterized this event. We have had some success in reproducing their observed synchronicity. We will present further simulations that attempt to get a better match with observations. Such simulations will help us to understand the possible mechanisms by which the various filament eruptions/CMEs may be linked. The modeling of such events is very useful for incorporation into future space weather prediction models. Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/FESD.

Direct comparisons of ice cloud macro- and microphysical properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with HIPPO aircraft observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Diao, Minghui; Zhang, Kai; Gettelman, Andrew; Lu, Zheng; Penner, Joyce E.; Lin, Zhaohui

2017-04-01

In this study we evaluate cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using in situ measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign for the period of 2009 to 2011. The modeled wind and temperature are nudged towards reanalysis. Model results collocated with HIPPO flight tracks are directly compared with the observations, and model sensitivities to the representations of ice nucleation and growth are also examined. Generally, CAM5 is able to capture specific cloud systems in terms of vertical configuration and horizontal extension. In total, the model reproduces 79.8 % of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes and even higher (94.3 %) for ice clouds (T ≤ -40 °C). The missing cloud occurrences in the model are primarily ascribed to the fact that the model cannot account for the high spatial variability of observed relative humidity (RH). Furthermore, model RH biases are mostly attributed to the discrepancies in water vapor, rather than temperature. At the micro-scale of ice clouds, the model captures the observed increase of ice crystal mean sizes with temperature, albeit with smaller sizes than the observations. The model underestimates the observed ice number concentration (Ni) and ice water content (IWC) for ice crystals larger than 75 µm in diameter. Modeled IWC and Ni are more sensitive to the threshold diameter for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs), while simulated ice crystal mean size is more sensitive to ice nucleation parameterizations than to Dcs. Our results highlight the need for further improvements to the sub-grid RH variability and ice nucleation and growth in the model.

Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerr, Graham S.; Fletcher, Lyndsay; Russell, Alexander J. B.; Allred, Joel C.

2016-01-01

We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

Effects of Uncertainties in Electric Field Boundary Conditions for Ring Current Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Margaret W.; O'Brien, T. Paul; Lemon, Colby L.; Guild, Timothy B.

2018-01-01

Physics-based simulation results can vary widely depending on the applied boundary conditions. As a first step toward assessing the effect of boundary conditions on ring current simulations, we analyze the uncertainty of cross-polar cap potentials (CPCP) on electric field boundary conditions applied to the Rice Convection Model-Equilibrium (RCM-E). The empirical Weimer model of CPCP is chosen as the reference model and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program CPCP measurements as the reference data. Using temporal correlations from a statistical analysis of the "errors" between the reference model and data, we construct a Monte Carlo CPCP discrete time series model that can be generalized to other model boundary conditions. RCM-E simulations using electric field boundary conditions from the reference model and from 20 randomly generated Monte Carlo discrete time series of CPCP are performed for two large storms. During the 10 August 2000 storm main phase, the proton density at 10 RE at midnight was observed to be low (< 1.4 cm-3) and the observed disturbance Dst index is bounded by the simulated Dst values. In contrast, the simulated Dst values during the recovery phases of the 10 August 2000 and 31 August 2005 storms tend to underestimate systematically the observed late Dst recovery. This suggests a need to improve the accuracy of particle loss calculations in the RCM-E model. Application of this technique can aid modelers to make efficient choices on either investing more effort on improving specification of boundary conditions or on improving descriptions of physical processes.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

The Distribution of Snow Black Carbon observed in the Arctic and Compared to the GISS-PUCCINI Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dou, T.; Xiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Liu, J.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Ming, J.; Qin, D.

2012-01-01

In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2- PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto Arctic snow and sea ice is also estimated. Two sets of model simulations are analyzed, where meteorology is linearly relaxed towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and towards NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses. Results indicate that the modeled concentrations of sBC are comparable with presentday observations in and around the Arctic Ocean, except for apparent underestimation at a few sites in the Russian Arctic. That said, the model has some biases in its simulated spatial distribution of BC deposition to the Arctic. The simulations from the two model runs are roughly equal, indicating that discrepancies between model and observations come from other sources. Underestimation of biomass burning emissions in Northern Eurasia may be the main cause of the low biases in the Russian Arctic. Comparisons of modeled aerosol BC (aBC) with long-term surface observations at Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin and Nord stations show significant underestimation in winter and spring concentrations in the Arctic (most significant in Alaska), although the simulated seasonality of aBC has been greatly improved relative to earlier model versions. This is consistent with simulated biases in vertical profiles of aBC, with underestimation in the lower and middle troposphere but overestimation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, suggesting that the wet removal processes in the current model may be too weak or that vertical transport is too rapid, although the simulated BC lifetime seems reasonable. The combination of observations and modeling provides a comprehensive distribution of sBC over the Arctic. On the basis of this distribution, we estimate the decrease in snow and sea ice albedo and the resulting radiative forcing. We suggest that the albedo reduction due to BC deposition presents significant space-time variations, with highest mean reductions of 1.25% in the Russian Arctic, which are much larger than those in other Arctic regions (0.39% to 0.64 %). The averaged value over the Arctic north of 66degN is 0.4-0.6% during spring, leading to regional surface radiative forcings of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.0Wm(exp-2) in spring 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Constraining the Intergalactic and Circumgalactic Media with Lyman-Alpha Absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorini, Daniele; Onorbe, Jose; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lukic, Zarija

2018-01-01

Lyman-alpha (Ly-a) absorption features detected in quasar spectra in the redshift range 02Mpc, the simulations asymptotically match the observations, because the ΛCDM model successfully describes the ambient IGM. This represents a critical advantage of studying the mean absorption profile. However, significant differences between the simulations, and between simulations and observations are present on scales 20kpc-2Mpc, illustrating the challenges of accurately modeling and resolving galaxy formation physics. It is noteworthy that these differences are observed as far out as ~2Mpc, indicating that the `sphere-of-influence' of galaxies could extend to approximately ~20 times the halo virial radius (~100kpc). Current observations are very precise on these scales and can thus strongly discriminate between different galaxy formation models. I demonstrate that the Ly-a absorption profile is primarily sensitive to the underlying temperature-density relationship of diffuse gas around galaxies, and argue that it thus provides a fundamental test of galaxy formation models. With near-future high-precision observations of Ly-a absorption, the tools developed in my thesis set the stage for even stronger constraints on models of galaxy formation and cosmology.

Simulation of Tracer Concentration Data in the Brush Creek Drainage Flow Using an Integrated Puff Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, K. Shankar; Eckman, Richard M.; Hosker, Rayford P., Jr.

1989-07-01

During the 1984 ASCOT field study in Brush Creek Valley, two perfluorocarbon tracers were released into the nocturnal drainage flow at two different heights. The resulting surface concentrations were sampled at 90 sites, and vertical concentration profiles at 11 sites. These detailed tracer measurements provide a valuable dataset for developing and testing models of pollutant transport and dispersion in valleys.In this paper, we present the results of Gaussian puff model simulations of the tracer releases in Brush Creek Valley. The model was modified to account for the restricted lateral dispersion in the valley, and for the gross elevation differences between the release site and the receptors. The variable wind fields needed to transport the puffs were obtained by interpolation between wind profiles measured using tethered balloons at five along-valley sites. Direct turbulence measurements were used to estimate diffusion. Subsidence in the valley flow was included for elevated releases.Two test simulations-covering different nights, tracers, and release heights-were performed. The predicted hourly concentrations were compared with observations at 51 ground-level locations. At most sites, the predicted and observed concentrations agree within a factor of 2 to 6. For the elevated release simulation, the observed mean concentration is 40 pL/L, the predicted mean is 21 pL/L, the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted concentrations is 0.24, and the index of agreement is 0.46. For the surface release simulation, the observed mean is 85 pL/L, and the predicted mean is 73 pL/L. The correlation coefficient is 0.23, and the index of agreement is 0.42. The results suggest that this modified puff model can be used as a practical tool for simulating pollutant transport and dispersion in deep valleys.

Simulation of Ozone and Long Lived Tracers in the GSFC Two-Dimensional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.; Stolarski, Richard S.

1999-01-01

The GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry model has been used for a wide variety of scientific and assessment studies of stratospheric ozone. Transport is a key element in the ozone simulations, and we have recently upgraded our model transport formulation to include much of the information about atmospheric transport processes available from existing data sets. To properly evaluate the model transport, it is desirable to examine the effects of transport and photochemistry separately. Recently, high quality observations of several long lived stratospheric tracers have become available from aircraft, balloon, and satellite measurement systems. This data provides a means to do a detailed model transport evaluation, as has been done in the recent Models and Measurements Intercomparison Project II. In this paper, we will discuss the GSFC 2D model simulations of ozone together with model-data comparisons of long lived tracers such as methane and the age of air transport diagnostic. We will show that the model can reproduce many of the transport-sensitive features observed in the stratosphere, and can compare reasonably well with measurements of both total ozone and long lived tracers simultaneously. We will also discuss the model deficiencies in simulating some of the detailed aspects of the observations.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

Interactive visualization to advance earthquake simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellogg, L.H.; Bawden, G.W.; Bernardin, T.; Billen, M.; Cowgill, E.; Hamann, B.; Jadamec, M.; Kreylos, O.; Staadt, O.; Sumner, D.

2008-01-01

The geological sciences are challenged to manage and interpret increasing volumes of data as observations and simulations increase in size and complexity. For example, simulations of earthquake-related processes typically generate complex, time-varying data sets in two or more dimensions. To facilitate interpretation and analysis of these data sets, evaluate the underlying models, and to drive future calculations, we have developed methods of interactive visualization with a special focus on using immersive virtual reality (VR) environments to interact with models of Earth's surface and interior. Virtual mapping tools allow virtual "field studies" in inaccessible regions. Interactive tools allow us to manipulate shapes in order to construct models of geological features for geodynamic models, while feature extraction tools support quantitative measurement of structures that emerge from numerical simulation or field observations, thereby enabling us to improve our interpretation of the dynamical processes that drive earthquakes. VR has traditionally been used primarily as a presentation tool, albeit with active navigation through data. Reaping the full intellectual benefits of immersive VR as a tool for scientific analysis requires building on the method's strengths, that is, using both 3D perception and interaction with observed or simulated data. This approach also takes advantage of the specialized skills of geological scientists who are trained to interpret, the often limited, geological and geophysical data available from field observations. ?? Birkhaueser 2008.

HIRDLS Observations and Simulation of a Lower Stratospheric Intrusion of Tropical Air to High Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Gille, John C.; Nardi, Bruno; Yudin, Valery A.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Khosravi, Rashid

2008-01-01

On 26 January 2006, the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) observed low mixing ratios of ozone and nitric acid in an approximately 2 km vertical layer near 100 hPa extending from the subtropics to 55 degrees N over North America. The subsequent evolution of the layer is simulated with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model and substantiated with HIRDLS observations. Air with low mixing ratios of ozone is transported poleward to 80 degrees N. Although there is evidence of mixing with extratropical air and diabatic descent, much of the tropical intrusion returns to the subtropics. This study demonstrates that HIRDLS and the GMI model are capable of resolving thin intrusion events. The observations combined with simulation are a first step towards development of a quantitative understanding of the lower stratospheric ozone budget.

Use of Airborne Hyperspectral Data in the Simulation of Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Miguel, Eduardo; Jimenez, Marcos; Ruiz, Elena; Salido, Elena; Gutierrez de la Camara, Oscar

2016-08-01

The simulation of future images is part of the development phase of most Earth Observation missions. This simulation uses frequently as starting point images acquired from airborne instruments. These instruments provide the required flexibility in acquisition parameters (time, date, illumination and observation geometry...) and high spectral and spatial resolution, well above the target values (as required by simulation tools). However, there are a number of important problems hampering the use of airborne imagery. One of these problems is that observation zenith angles (OZA), are far from those that the misisons to be simulated would use.We examine this problem by evaluating the difference in ground reflectance estimated from airborne images for different observation/illumination geometries. Next, we analyze a solution for simulation purposes, in which a Bi- directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model is attached to an image of the isotropic surface reflectance. The results obtained confirm the need for reflectance anisotropy correction when using airborne images for creating a reflectance map for simulation purposes. But this correction should not be used without providing the corresponding estimation of BRDF, in the form of model parameters, to the simulation teams.

The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

2013-12-01

The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, U. S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

1997-01-01

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S.R.; Douglass, A. R.; Patrick, L. C.; Allen, D. R.; Randall, C. E.

2004-01-01

The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew

2008-01-01

Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Stochastic Models for Precipitable Water in Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Kimberly

Atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) is the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere within a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area and is a critically important parameter of precipitation processes. However, accurate high-frequency and long-term observations of PWV in the sky were impossible until the availability of modern instruments such as radar. The United States Department of Energy (DOE)'s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program facility made the first systematic and high-resolution observations of PWV at Darwin, Australia since 2002. At a resolution of 20 seconds, this time series allowed us to examine the volatility of PWV, including fractal behavior with dimension equal to 1.9, higher than the Brownian motion dimension of 1.5. Such strong fractal behavior calls for stochastic differential equation modeling in an attempt to address some of the difficulties of convective parameterization in various kinds of climate models, ranging from general circulation models (GCM) to weather research forecasting (WRF) models. This important observed data at high resolution can capture the fractal behavior of PWV and enables stochastic exploration into the next generation of climate models which considers scales from micrometers to thousands of kilometers. As a first step, this thesis explores a simple stochastic differential equation model of water mass balance for PWV and assesses accuracy, robustness, and sensitivity of the stochastic model. A 1000-day simulation allows for the determination of the best-fitting 25-day period as compared to data from the TWP-ICE field campaign conducted out of Darwin, Australia in early 2006. The observed data and this portion of the simulation had a correlation coefficient of 0.6513 and followed similar statistics and low-resolution temporal trends. Building on the point model foundation, a similar algorithm was applied to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s existing single-column model as a test-of-concept for eventual inclusion in a general circulation model. The stochastic scheme was designed to be coupled with the deterministic single-column simulation by modifying results of the existing convective scheme (Zhang-McFarlane) and was able to produce a 20-second resolution time series that effectively simulated observed PWV, as measured by correlation coefficient (0.5510), fractal dimension (1.9), statistics, and visual examination of temporal trends. Results indicate that simulation of a highly volatile time series of observed PWV is certainly achievable and has potential to improve prediction capabilities in climate modeling. Further, this study demonstrates the feasibility of adding a mathematics- and statistics-based stochastic scheme to an existing deterministic parameterization to simulate observed fractal behavior.

Exploring a Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR-CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Lin, Zhaohui; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Lu, Zheng; Rahimi-Esfarjani, Stefan R.

2017-10-01

The reliability of climate simulations and projections, particularly in the regions with complex terrains, is greatly limited by the model resolution. In this study we evaluate the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with a high-resolution (0.125°) refinement over the Rocky Mountain region. The VR-CESM results are compared with observations, as well as CESM simulation at a quasi-uniform 1° resolution (UNIF) and Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) simulation at a 0.11° resolution. We find that VR-CESM is effective at capturing the observed spatial patterns of temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in the Rocky Mountains with the performance comparable to CRCM5, while UNIF is unable to do so. VR-CESM and CRCM5 simulate better the seasonal variations of precipitation than UNIF, although VR-CESM still overestimates winter precipitation whereas CRCM5 and UNIF underestimate it. All simulations distribute more winter precipitation along the windward (west) flanks of mountain ridges with the greatest overestimation in VR-CESM. VR-CESM simulates much greater snow water equivalent peaks than CRCM5 and UNIF, although the peaks are still 10-40% less than observations. Moreover, the frequency of heavy precipitation events (daily precipitation ≥ 25 mm) in VR-CESM and CRCM5 is comparable to observations, whereas the same events in UNIF are an order of magnitude less frequent. In addition, VR-CESM captures the observed occurrence frequency and seasonal variation of rain-on-snow days and performs better than UNIF and CRCM5. These results demonstrate the VR-CESM's capability in regional climate modeling over the mountainous regions and its promising applications for climate change studies.

A Method for Combining Experimentation and Molecular Dynamics Simulation to Improve Cohesive Zone Models for Metallic Microstructures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochhalter, J. D.; Glaessgen, E. H.; Ingraffea, A. R.; Aquino, W. A.

2009-01-01

Fracture processes within a material begin at the nanometer length scale at which the formation, propagation, and interaction of fundamental damage mechanisms occur. Physics-based modeling of these atomic processes quickly becomes computationally intractable as the system size increases. Thus, a multiscale modeling method, based on the aggregation of fundamental damage processes occurring at the nanoscale within a cohesive zone model, is under development and will enable computationally feasible and physically meaningful microscale fracture simulation in polycrystalline metals. This method employs atomistic simulation to provide an optimization loop with an initial prediction of a cohesive zone model (CZM). This initial CZM is then applied at the crack front region within a finite element model. The optimization procedure iterates upon the CZM until the finite element model acceptably reproduces the near-crack-front displacement fields obtained from experimental observation. With this approach, a comparison can be made between the original CZM predicted by atomistic simulation and the converged CZM that is based on experimental observation. Comparison of the two CZMs gives insight into how atomistic simulation scales.

Statistical Evaluation of CRM-Simulated Cloud and Precipitation Structures Using Multi- sensor TRMM Measurements and Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posselt, D.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Matsui, T.

2009-05-01

Cloud resolving models are typically used to examine the characteristics of clouds and precipitation and their relationship to radiation and the large-scale circulation. As such, they are not required to reproduce the exact location of each observed convective system, much less each individual cloud. Some of the most relevant information about clouds and precipitation is provided by instruments located on polar-orbiting satellite platforms, but these observations are intermittent "snapshots" in time, making assessment of model performance challenging. In contrast to direct comparison, model results can be evaluated statistically. This avoids the requirement for the model to reproduce the observed systems, while returning valuable information on the performance of the model in a climate-relevant sense. The focus of this talk is a model evaluation study, in which updates to the microphysics scheme used in a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are evaluated using statistics of observed clouds, precipitation, and radiation. We present the results of multiday (non-equilibrium) simulations of organized deep convection using single- and double-moment versions of a the model's cloud microphysical scheme. Statistics of TRMM multi-sensor derived clouds, precipitation, and radiative fluxes are used to evaluate the GCE results, as are simulated TRMM measurements obtained using a sophisticated instrument simulator suite. We present advantages and disadvantages of performing model comparisons in retrieval and measurement space and conclude by motivating the use of data assimilation techniques for analyzing and improving model parameterizations.

Online model evaluation of large-eddy simulations covering Germany with a horizontal resolution of 156 m

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Akio; Ament, Felix; Lammert, Andrea

2017-04-01

Large-eddy simulations have been performed since several decades, but due to computational limits most studies were restricted to small domains or idealised initial-/boundary conditions. Within the High definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project realistic weather forecasting like LES simulations were performed with the newly developed ICON LES model for several days. The domain covers central Europe with a horizontal resolution down to 156 m. The setup consists of more than 3 billion grid cells, by what one 3D dump requires roughly 500 GB. A newly developed online evaluation toolbox was created to check instantaneously for realistic model simulations. The toolbox automatically combines model results with observations and generates several quicklooks for various variables. So far temperature-/humidity profiles, cloud cover, integrated water vapour, precipitation and many more are included. All kind of observations like aircraft observations, soundings or precipitation radar networks are used. For each dataset, a specific module is created, which allows for an easy handling and enhancement of the toolbox. Most of the observations are automatically downloaded from the Standardized Atmospheric Measurement Database (SAMD). The evaluation tool should support scientists at monitoring computational costly model simulations as well as to give a first overview about model's performance. The structure of the toolbox as well as the SAMD database are presented. Furthermore, the toolbox was applied on an ICON LES sensitivity study, where example results are shown.

OSS: OSSOS Survey Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petit, J.-M.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, B.; Alexandersen, M.

2018-05-01

Comparing properties of discovered trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) with dynamical models is impossible due to the observational biases that exist in surveys. The OSSOS Survey Simulator takes an intrinsic orbital model (from, for example, the output of a dynamical Kuiper belt emplacement simulation) and applies the survey biases, so the biased simulated objects can be directly compared with real discoveries.

A Coarse Grained Model for Methylcellulose: Spontaneous Ring Formation at Elevated Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenjun; Larson, Ronald

Methylcellulose (MC) is widely used as food additives and pharma applications, where its thermo-reversible gelation behavior plays an important role. To date the gelation mechanism is not well understood, and therefore attracts great research interest. In this study, we adopted coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics simulations to model the MC chains, including the homopolymers and random copolymers that models commercial METHOCEL A, in an implicit water environment, where each MC monomer modeled with a single bead. The simulations are carried using a LAMMPS program. We parameterized our CG model using the radial distribution functions from atomistic simulations of short MC oligomers, extrapolating the results to long chains. We used dissociation free energy to validate our CG model against the atomistic model. The CG model captured the effects of monomer substitution type and temperature from the atomistic simulations. We applied this CG model to simulate single chains up to 1000 monomers long and obtained persistence lengths that are close to those determined from experiment. We observed the chain collapse transition for random copolymer at 600 monomers long at 50C. The chain collapsed into a stable ring structure with outer diameter around 14nm, which appears to be a precursor to the fibril structure observed in the methylcellulose gel observed by Lodge et al. in the recent studies. Our CG model can be extended to other MC derivatives for studying the interaction between these polymers and small molecules, such as hydrophobic drugs.

Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Salunke, Kiran D.; Dhakate, Ashish R.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2016-05-01

The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere-ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes.

Nested-grid simulation of mercury over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Jaeglé, L.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Holmes, C. D.; Amos, H. M.; Wang, Q.; Talbot, R.; Artz, R.; Brooks, S.; Luke, W.; Holsen, T. M.; Felton, D.; Miller, E. K.; Perry, K. D.; Schmeltz, D.; Steffen, A.; Tordon, R.; Weiss-Penzias, P.; Zsolway, R.

2012-01-01

We have developed a new high-resolution (1/2° latitude by 2/3° longitude) nested-grid mercury (Hg) simulation over North America employing the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Emissions, chemistry, deposition, and meteorology are self-consistent between the global and nested domains. Compared to the global model (4° latitude by 5° longitude), the nested model shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial and temporal variability of Hg wet deposition over North America observed by the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in 2008-2009. The nested simulation resolves features such as land/ocean contrast and higher deposition due to orographic precipitation, and predicts more efficient convective rain scavenging of Hg over the southeast United States. However, the nested model overestimates Hg wet deposition over the Ohio River Valley region (ORV) by 27%. We modify anthropogenic emission speciation profiles in the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) to account for the rapid in-plume reduction of reactive to elemental Hg (IPR simulation). This leads to a decrease in the model bias to +3% over the ORV region. Over the contiguous US, the correlation coefficient (r) between MDN observations and our IPR simulation increases from 0.63 to 0.78. The IPR nested simulation generally reproduces the seasonal cycle in surface concentrations of speciated Hg from the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) and Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Network (CAMNet). In the IPR simulation, annual mean reactive gaseous and particulate-bound Hg are within 80% and 10% of observations, respectively. In contrast, the simulation with unmodified anthropogenic Hg speciation profiles overestimates these observations by factors of 2 to 4. The nested model shows improved skill at capturing the horizontal variability of Hg observed over California during the ARCTAS aircraft campaign. We find that North American anthropogenic emissions account for 10-22% of Hg wet deposition flux over the US, depending on the anthropogenic emissions speciation profile assumed. The percent contribution can be as high as 60% near large point emission sources in ORV. The contribution for the dry deposition is 13-20%.

Distributed Observer Network (DON), Version 3.0, User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazzone, Rebecca A.; Conroy, Michael P.

2015-01-01

The Distributed Observer Network (DON) is a data presentation tool developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to distribute and publish simulation results. Leveraging the display capabilities inherent in modern gaming technology, DON places users in a fully navigable 3-D environment containing graphical models and allows the users to observe how those models evolve and interact over time in a given scenario. Each scenario is driven with data that has been generated by authoritative NASA simulation tools and exported in accordance with a published data interface specification. This decoupling of the data from the source tool enables DON to faithfully display a simulator's results and ensure that every simulation stakeholder will view the exact same information every time.

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

DOE PAGES

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; ...

2015-04-26

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variabilitymore » in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.« less

Numerical simulations of a nonequilibrium argon plasma in a shock-tube experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cambier, Jean-Luc

1991-01-01

A code developed for the numerical modeling of nonequilibrium radiative plasmas is applied to the simulation of the propagation of strong ionizing shock waves in argon gas. The simulations attempt to reproduce a series of shock-tube experiments which will be used to validate the numerical models and procedures. The ability to perform unsteady simulations makes it possible to observe some fluctuations in the shock propagation, coupled to the kinetic processes. A coupling mechanism by pressure waves, reminiscent of oscillation mechanisms observed in detonation waves, is described. The effect of upper atomic levels is also briefly discussed.

Effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on variable infiltration capacity model performance and simulation of streamflow during drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2014-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrologic model performance and the simulation of streamflow during drought using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) observed monthly LAI dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the percentage deviation of the simulated monthly streamflow using the observed monthly LAI from simulated streamflow using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly streamflow in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5 to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59 to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements from 4 to 25% in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in pasture dominated catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with the observed monthly LAI instead of the long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of streamflow during wet and dry periods can be reduced to some extent by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE PAGES

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; ...

2016-05-10

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Wet scavenging of soluble gases in DC3 deep convective storms using WRF-Chem simulations and aircraft observations: DEEP CONVECTIVE WET SCAVENGING OF GASES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bela, Megan M.; Barth, Mary C.; Toon, Owen B.

We examine wet scavenging of soluble trace gases in storms observed during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign. We conduct high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) of a severe storm in Oklahoma. The model represents well the storm location, size, and structure as compared with Next Generation Weather Radar reflectivity, and simulated CO transport is consistent with aircraft observations. Scavenging efficiencies (SEs) between inflow and outflow of soluble species are calculated from aircraft measurements and model simulations. Using a simple wet scavenging scheme, we simulate the SE of each soluble speciesmore » within the error bars of the observations. The simulated SEs of all species except nitric acid (HNO3) are highly sensitive to the values specified for the fractions retained in ice when cloud water freezes. To reproduce the observations, we must assume zero ice retention for formaldehyde (CH2O) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and complete retention for methyl hydrogen peroxide (CH3OOH) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), likely to compensate for the lack of aqueous chemistry in the model. We then compare scavenging efficiencies among storms that formed in Alabama and northeast Colorado and the Oklahoma storm. Significant differences in SEs are seen among storms and species. More scavenging of HNO3 and less removal of CH3OOH are seen in storms with higher maximum flash rates, an indication of more graupel mass. Graupel is associated with mixed-phase scavenging and lightning production of nitrogen oxides (NOx ), processes that may explain the observed differences in HNO3 and CH3OOH scavenging.« less

A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

2018-03-01

This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

DOE PAGES

Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; ...

2016-10-20

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

A Fast Visible-Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Simulator for Cloudy Atmopheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Chao; Yang, Ping; Nasiri, Shaima L.; Platnick, Steven; Meyer, Kerry G.; Wang, Chen Xi; Ding, Shouguo

2015-01-01

A fast instrument simulator is developed to simulate the observations made in cloudy atmospheres by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The correlated k-distribution (CKD) technique is used to compute the transmissivity of absorbing atmospheric gases. The bulk scattering properties of ice clouds used in this study are based on the ice model used for the MODIS Collection 6 ice cloud products. Two fast radiative transfer models based on pre-computed ice cloud look-up-tables are used for the VIIRS solar and infrared channels. The accuracy and efficiency of the fast simulator are quantify in comparison with a combination of the rigorous line-by-line (LBLRTM) and discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) models. Relative errors are less than 2 for simulated TOA reflectances for the solar channels and the brightness temperature differences for the infrared channels are less than 0.2 K. The simulator is over three orders of magnitude faster than the benchmark LBLRTM+DISORT model. Furthermore, the cloudy atmosphere reflectances and brightness temperatures from the fast VIIRS simulator compare favorably with those from VIIRS observations.

Using Instrument Simulators and a Satellite Database to Evaluate Microphysical Assumptions in High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Rita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chao, Y.; Chau, A. H.; Haddad, Z. S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Martin, J. M.; Poulsen, W. L.; Rodriguez, E.; Stiles, B. W.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q.

2009-12-01

Improving forecasting of hurricane intensity remains a significant challenge for the research and operational communities. Many factors determine a tropical cyclone’s intensity. Ultimately, though, intensity is dependent on the magnitude and distribution of the latent heating that accompanies the hydrometeor production during the convective process. Hence, the microphysical processes and their representation in hurricane models are of crucial importance for accurately simulating hurricane intensity and evolution. The accurate modeling of the microphysical processes becomes increasingly important when running high-resolution models that should properly reflect the convective processes in the hurricane eyewall. There are many microphysical parameterizations available today. However, evaluating their performance and selecting the most representative ones remains a challenge. Several field campaigns were focused on collecting in situ microphysical observations to help distinguish between different modeling approaches and improve on the most promising ones. However, these point measurements cannot adequately reflect the space and time correlations characteristic of the convective processes. An alternative approach to evaluating microphysical assumptions is to use multi-parameter remote sensing observations of the 3D storm structure and evolution. In doing so, we could compare modeled to retrieved geophysical parameters. The satellite retrievals, however, carry their own uncertainty. To increase the fidelity of the microphysical evaluation results, we can use instrument simulators to produce satellite observables from the model fields and compare to the observed. This presentation will illustrate how instrument simulators can be used to discriminate between different microphysical assumptions. We will compare and contrast the members of high-resolution ensemble WRF model simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005), each member reflecting different microphysical assumptions. We will use the geophysical model fields as input to instrument simulators to produce microwave brightness temperatures and radar reflectivity at the TRMM (TMI and PR) frequencies and polarizations. We will also simulate the surface backscattering cross-section at the QuikSCAT frequency, polarizations and viewing geometry. We will use satellite observations from TRMM and QuikSCAT to determine those parameterizations that yield a realistic forecast and those parameterizations that do not. To facilitate hurricane research, we have developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS), which includes a comprehensive set of multi-sensor observations relevant to large-scale and storm-scale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. In this presentation, we will illustrate how the TCIS can be used for hurricane research. The work described here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

RACORO continental boundary layer cloud investigations. 2. Large-eddy simulations of cumulus clouds and evaluation with in-situ and ground-based observations

DOE PAGES

Endo, Satoshi; Fridlind, Ann M.; Lin, Wuyin; ...

2015-06-19

A 60-hour case study of continental boundary layer cumulus clouds is examined using two large-eddy simulation (LES) models. The case is based on observations obtained during the RACORO Campaign (Routine Atmospheric Radiation Measurement [ARM] Aerial Facility [AAF] Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths [CLOWD] Optical Radiative Observations) at the ARM Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plains site. The LES models are driven by continuous large-scale and surface forcings, and are constrained by multi-modal and temporally varying aerosol number size distribution profiles derived from aircraft observations. We compare simulated cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties with ground-based remote sensing and aircraft observations.more » The LES simulations capture the observed transitions of the evolving cumulus-topped boundary layers during the three daytime periods, and generally reproduce variations of droplet number concentration with liquid water content (LWC), corresponding to the gradient between the cloud centers and cloud edges at given heights. The observed LWC values fall within the range of simulated values; the observed droplet number concentrations are commonly higher than simulated, but differences remain on par with potential estimation errors in the aircraft measurements. Sensitivity studies examine the influences of bin microphysics versus bulk microphysics, aerosol advection, supersaturation treatment, and aerosol hygroscopicity. Simulated macrophysical cloud properties are found to be insensitive in this non-precipitating case, but microphysical properties are especially sensitive to bulk microphysics supersaturation treatment and aerosol hygroscopicity.« less

Simulating Black Carbon and Dust and their Radiative Forcing in Seasonal Snow: A Case Study over North China with Field Campaign Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Hu, Zhiyuan; Qian, Yun

2014-10-30

A state-of-the-art regional model, WRF-Chem, is coupled with the SNICAR model that includes the sophisticated representation of snow metamorphism processes available for climate study. The coupled model is used to simulate the black carbon (BC) and dust concentrations and their radiative forcing in seasonal snow over North China in January-February of 2010, with extensive field measurements used to evaluate the model performance. In general, the model simulated spatial variability of BC and dust mass concentrations in the top snow layer (hereafter BCS and DSTS, respectively) are quantitatively or qualitatively consistent with observations. The model generally moderately underestimates BCS in themore » clean regions but significantly overestimates BCS in some polluted regions. Most model results fall into the uncertainty ranges of observations. The simulated BCS and DSTS are highest with >5000 ng g-1 and up to 5 mg g-1, respectively, over the source regions and reduce to <50 ng g-1 and <1 μg g-1, respectively, in the remote regions. BCS and DSTS introduce similar magnitude of radiative warming (~10 W m-2) in snowpack, which is comparable to the magnitude of surface radiative cooling due to BC and dust in the atmosphere. This study represents the first effort in using a regional modeling framework to simulate BC and dust and their direct radiative forcing in snow. Although a variety of observational datasets have been used to attribute model biases, some uncertainties in the results remain, which highlights the need for more observations, particularly concurrent measurements of atmospheric and snow aerosols and the deposition fluxes of aerosols, in future campaigns.« less

Large Eddy Simulations of Continental Boundary Layer Clouds Observed during the RACORO Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, S.; Fridlind, A. M.; Lin, W.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Toto, T.; Liu, Y.

2013-12-01

Three cases of boundary layer clouds are analyzed in the FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) project, based on continental boundary-layer-cloud observations during the RACORO Campaign [Routine Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF) Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations] at the ARM Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The three 60-hour case study periods are selected to capture the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary-layer cloud systems under a range of conditions, intentionally including those that are relatively more mixed or transitional in nature versus being of a purely canonical type. Multi-modal and temporally varying aerosol number size distribution profiles are derived from aircraft observations. Large eddy simulations (LESs) are performed for the three case study periods using the GISS Distributed Hydrodynamic Aerosol and Radiative Modeling Application (DHARMA) model and the WRF-FASTER model, which is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model implemented with forcing ingestion and other functions to constitute a flexible LES. The two LES models commonly capture the significant transitions of cloud-topped boundary layers in the three periods: diurnal evolution of cumulus layers repeating over multiple days, nighttime evolution/daytime diminution of thick stratus, and daytime breakup of stratus and stratocumulus clouds. Simulated transitions of thermodynamic structures of the cloud-topped boundary layers are examined by balloon-borne soundings and ground-based remote sensors. Aircraft observations are then used to statistically evaluate the predicted cloud droplet number size distributions under varying aerosol and cloud conditions. An ensemble approach is used to refine the model configuration for the combined use of observations with parallel LES and single-column model simulations. See Lin et al. poster for single-column model investigation.

Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204, doi:10.1029/2011JD016595.

Red-light running violation prediction using observational and simulator data.

PubMed

Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham; Dingus, Thomas A

2016-11-01

In the United States, 683 people were killed and an estimated 133,000 were injured in crashes due to running red lights in 2012. To help prevent/mitigate crashes caused by running red lights, these violations need to be identified before they occur, so both the road users (i.e., drivers, pedestrians, etc.) in potential danger and the infrastructure can be notified and actions can be taken accordingly. Two different data sets were used to assess the feasibility of developing red-light running (RLR) violation prediction models: (1) observational data and (2) driver simulator data. Both data sets included common factors, such as time to intersection (TTI), distance to intersection (DTI), and velocity at the onset of the yellow indication. However, the observational data set provided additional factors that the simulator data set did not, and vice versa. The observational data included vehicle information (e.g., speed, acceleration, etc.) for several different time frames. For each vehicle approaching an intersection in the observational data set, required data were extracted from several time frames as the vehicle drew closer to the intersection. However, since the observational data were inherently anonymous, driver factors such as age and gender were unavailable in the observational data set. Conversely, the simulator data set contained age and gender. In addition, the simulator data included a secondary (non-driving) task factor and a treatment factor (i.e., incoming/outgoing calls while driving). The simulator data only included vehicle information for certain time frames (e.g., yellow onset); the data did not provide vehicle information for several different time frames while vehicles were approaching an intersection. In this study, the random forest (RF) machine-learning technique was adopted to develop RLR violation prediction models. Factor importance was obtained for different models and different data sets to show how differently the factors influence the performance of each model. A sensitivity analysis showed that the factor importance to identify RLR violations changed when data from different time frames were used to develop the prediction models. TTI, DTI, the required deceleration parameter (RDP), and velocity at the onset of a yellow indication were among the most important factors identified by both models constructed using observational data and simulator data. Furthermore, in addition to the factors obtained from a point in time (i.e., yellow onset), valuable information suitable for RLR violation prediction was obtained from defined monitoring periods. It was found that period lengths of 2-6m contributed to the best model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional variations of atmospheric CO2: aircraft measurements and multi-transport model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niwa, Y.; Patra, P. K.; Sawa, Y.; Machida, T.; Matsueda, H.; Belikov, D.; Maki, T.; Ikegami, M.; Imasu, R.; Maksyutov, S.; Oda, T.; Satoh, M.; Takigawa, M.

2011-12-01

Numerical simulation and validation of three-dimensional structure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is necessary for quantification of transport model uncertainty and its role on surface flux estimation by inverse modeling. Simulations of atmospheric CO2 were performed using four transport models and two sets of surface fluxes compared with an aircraft measurement dataset of Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL), covering various latitudes, longitudes, and heights. Under this transport model intercomparison project, spatiotemporal variations of CO2 concentration for 2006-2007 were analyzed with a three-dimensional perspective. Results show that the models reasonably simulated vertical profiles and seasonal variations not only over northern latitude areas but also over the tropics and southern latitudes. From CONTRAIL measurements and model simulations, intrusion of northern CO2 in to the Southern Hemisphere, through the upper troposphere, was confirmed. Furthermore, models well simulated the vertical propagation of seasonal variation in the northern free troposphere. However, significant model-observation discrepancies were found in Asian regions, which are attributable to uncertainty of the surface CO2 flux data. In summer season, differences in latitudinal gradients by the fluxes are comparable to or greater than model-model differences even in the free troposphere. This result suggests that active summer vertical transport sufficiently ventilates flux signals up to the free troposphere and the models could use those for inferring surface CO2 fluxes.

Progress report on daily flow-routing simulation for the Carson River, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, G.W.

1996-01-01

A physically based flow-routing model using Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was constructed for modeling streamflow in the Carson River at daily time intervals as part of the Truckee-Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Daily streamflow data for water years 1978-92 for the mainstem river, tributaries, and irrigation ditches from the East Fork Carson River near Markleeville and West Fork Carson River at Woodfords down to the mainstem Carson River at Fort Churchill upstream from Lahontan Reservoir were obtained from several agencies and were compiled into a comprehensive data base. No previous physically based flow-routing model of the Carson River has incorporated multi-agency streamflow data into a single data base and simulated flow at a daily time interval. Where streamflow data were unavailable or incomplete, hydrologic techniques were used to estimate some flows. For modeling purposes, the Carson River was divided into six segments, which correspond to those used in the Alpine Decree that governs water rights along the river. Hydraulic characteristics were defined for 48 individual stream reaches based on cross-sectional survey data obtained from field surveys and previous studies. Simulation results from the model were compared with available observed and estimated streamflow data. Model testing demonstrated that hydraulic characteristics of the Carson River are adequately represented in the models for a range of flow regimes. Differences between simulated and observed streamflow result mostly from inadequate data characterizing inflow and outflow from the river. Because irrigation return flows are largely unknown, irrigation return flow percentages were used as a calibration parameter to minimize differences between observed and simulated streamflows. Observed and simulated streamflow were compared for daily periods for the full modeled length of the Carson River and for two major subreaches modeled with more detailed input data. Hydrographs and statistics presented in this report describe these differences. A sensitivity analysis of four estimated components of the hydrologic system evaluated which components were significant in the model. Estimated ungaged tributary streamflow is not a significant component of the model during low runoff, but is significant during high runoff. The sensitivity analysis indicates that changes in the estimated irrigation diversion and estimated return flow creates a noticeable change in the statistics. The modeling for this study is preliminary. Results of the model are constrained by current availability and accuracy of observed hydrologic data. Several inflows and outflows of the Carson River are not described by time-series data and therefore are not represented in the model.

Using DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER Synoptic Observations to Test Global MHD Simulations of the Large-scale Topology of the Dayside Merging Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchem, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Bosqued, J.; Escoubet, C. P.; Dunlop, M.; Owen, C. J.; Reme, H.; Balogh, A.; Carr, C.; Fazakerley, A. N.; Cao, J. B.

2005-12-01

Synoptic measurements from the DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER spacecraft offer a unique opportunity to evaluate global models in simulating the complex topology and dynamics of the dayside merging region. We compare observations from the DOUBLE STAR TC-1 and CLUSTER spacecraft on May 8, 2004 with the predictions from a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation that uses plasma and magnetic field parameters measured upstream of the bow shock by the WIND spacecraft. Results from the global simulation are consistent with the large-scale features observed by CLUSTER and TC-1. We discuss topological changes and plasma flows at the dayside magnetospheric boundary inferred from the simulation results. The simulation shows that the DOUBLE STAR spacecraft passed through the dawn side merging region as the IMF rotated. In particular, the simulation indicates that at times TC-1 was very close to the merging region. In addition, we found that the bifurcation of the merging region in the simulation results is consistent with predictions by the antiparallel merging model. However, because of the draping of the magnetosheath field lines over the magnetopause, the positions and shape of the merging region differ significantly from those predicted by the model.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

2016-08-01

This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

Arctic sea-ice diffusion from observed and simulated Lagrangian trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rampal, Pierre; Bouillon, Sylvain; Bergh, Jon; Ólason, Einar

2016-07-01

We characterize sea-ice drift by applying a Lagrangian diffusion analysis to buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) dataset and from two different models: the standalone Lagrangian sea-ice model neXtSIM and the Eulerian coupled ice-ocean model used for the TOPAZ reanalysis. By applying the diffusion analysis to the IABP buoy trajectories over the period 1979-2011, we confirm that sea-ice diffusion follows two distinct regimes (ballistic and Brownian) and we provide accurate values for the diffusivity and integral timescale that could be used in Eulerian or Lagrangian passive tracers models to simulate the transport and diffusion of particles moving with the ice. We discuss how these values are linked to the evolution of the fluctuating displacements variance and how this information could be used to define the size of the search area around the position predicted by the mean drift. By comparing observed and simulated sea-ice trajectories for three consecutive winter seasons (2007-2011), we show how the characteristics of the simulated motion may differ from or agree well with observations. This comparison illustrates the usefulness of first applying a diffusion analysis to evaluate the output of modeling systems that include a sea-ice model before using these in, e.g., oil spill trajectory models or, more generally, to simulate the transport of passive tracers in sea ice.

Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

2017-01-01

Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, David; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

Evaluation of WRF PBL parameterization schemes against direct observations during a dry event over the Ganges valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathyanadh, Anusha; Prabha, Thara V.; Balaji, B.; Resmi, E. A.; Karipot, Anandakumar

2017-09-01

Accurate representations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are important in all weather forecast systems, especially in simulations of turbulence, wind and air quality in the lower atmosphere. In the present study, detailed observations from the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment - Integrated Ground based Observational Campaign (CAIPEEX-IGOC) 2014 comprising of the complete surface energy budget and detailed boundary layer observations are used to validate Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations over a diverse terrain over the Ganges valley region, Uttar Pradesh, India. A drying event in June 2014 associated with a heat wave is selected for validation.Six local and nonlocal PBL schemes from WRF at 1 km resolution are compared with hourly observations during the diurnal cycle. Near-surface observations of weather parameters, radiation components and eddy covariance fluxes from micrometeorological tower, and profiles of variables from microwave radiometer, and radiosonde observations are used for model evaluations. Models produce a warmer, drier surface layer with higher wind speed, sensible heat flux and temperature than observations. Layered boundary layer dynamics, including the residual layer structure as illustrated in the observations over the Ganges valley are missed in the model, which lead to deeper mixed layers and excessive drying.Although it is difficult to identify any single scheme as the best, the qualitative and quantitative analyses for the entire study period and overall reproducibility of the observations indicate that the MYNN2 simulations describe lower errors and more realistic simulation of spatio-temporal variations in the boundary layer height.

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emmitt, G. D.; Wood, S. A.; Morris, M.

1990-01-01

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Sea-ice deformation in a coupled ocean-sea-ice model and in satellite remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spreen, Gunnar; Kwok, Ron; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Nguyen, An T.

2017-07-01

A realistic representation of sea-ice deformation in models is important for accurate simulation of the sea-ice mass balance. Simulated sea-ice deformation from numerical simulations with 4.5, 9, and 18 km horizontal grid spacing and a viscous-plastic (VP) sea-ice rheology are compared with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite observations (RGPS, RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System) for the time period 1996-2008. All three simulations can reproduce the large-scale ice deformation patterns, but small-scale sea-ice deformations and linear kinematic features (LKFs) are not adequately reproduced. The mean sea-ice total deformation rate is about 40 % lower in all model solutions than in the satellite observations, especially in the seasonal sea-ice zone. A decrease in model grid spacing, however, produces a higher density and more localized ice deformation features. The 4.5 km simulation produces some linear kinematic features, but not with the right frequency. The dependence on length scale and probability density functions (PDFs) of absolute divergence and shear for all three model solutions show a power-law scaling behavior similar to RGPS observations, contrary to what was found in some previous studies. Overall, the 4.5 km simulation produces the most realistic divergence, vorticity, and shear when compared with RGPS data. This study provides an evaluation of high and coarse-resolution viscous-plastic sea-ice simulations based on spatial distribution, time series, and power-law scaling metrics.

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.« less

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE PAGES

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.; ...

2015-07-03

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.« less

Analysis of the hydrological response of a distributed physically-based model using post-assimilation (EnKF) diagnostics of streamflow and in situ soil moisture observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert; Paniconi, Claudio

2014-06-01

Data assimilation techniques not only enhance model simulations and forecast, they also provide the opportunity to obtain a diagnostic of both the model and observations used in the assimilation process. In this research, an ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate streamflow observations at a basin outlet and at interior locations, as well as soil moisture at two different depths (15 and 45 cm). The simulation model is the distributed physically-based hydrological model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) and the study site is the Des Anglais watershed, a 690 km2 river basin located in southern Quebec, Canada. Use of Latin hypercube sampling instead of a conventional Monte Carlo method to generate the ensemble reduced the size of the ensemble, and therefore the calculation time. Different post-assimilation diagnostics, based on innovations (observation minus background), analysis residuals (observation minus analysis), and analysis increments (analysis minus background), were used to evaluate assimilation optimality. An important issue in data assimilation is the estimation of error covariance matrices. These diagnostics were also used in a calibration exercise to determine the standard deviation of model parameters, forcing data, and observations that led to optimal assimilations. The analysis of innovations showed a lag between the model forecast and the observation during rainfall events. Assimilation of streamflow observations corrected this discrepancy. Assimilation of outlet streamflow observations improved the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) between the model forecast (one day) and the observation at both outlet and interior point locations, owing to the structure of the state vector used. However, assimilation of streamflow observations systematically increased the simulated soil moisture values.

MAGIC: Model and Graphic Information Converter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbert, W. C.

2009-01-01

MAGIC is a software tool capable of converting highly detailed 3D models from an open, standard format, VRML 2.0/97, into the proprietary DTS file format used by the Torque Game Engine from GarageGames. MAGIC is used to convert 3D simulations from authoritative sources into the data needed to run the simulations in NASA's Distributed Observer Network. The Distributed Observer Network (DON) is a simulation presentation tool built by NASA to facilitate the simulation sharing requirements of the Data Presentation and Visualization effort within the Constellation Program. DON is built on top of the Torque Game Engine (TGE) and has chosen TGE's Dynamix Three Space (DTS) file format to represent 3D objects within simulations.

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0)contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; ...

2016-10-18

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of futuremore » climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.« less

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillett, Nathan P.; Shiogama, Hideo; Funke, Bernd; Hegerl, Gabriele; Knutti, Reto; Matthes, Katja; Santer, Benjamin D.; Stone, Daithi; Tebaldi, Claudia

2016-10-01

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.

Qualitative and numerical analyses of the effects of river inflow variations on mixing diagrams in estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cifuentes, L.A.; Schemel, L.E.; Sharp, J.H.

1990-01-01

The effects of river inflow variations on alkalinity/salinity distributions in San Francisco Bay and nitrate/salinity distributions in Delaware Bay are described. One-dimensional, advective-dispersion equations for salinity and the dissolved constituents are solved numerically and are used to simulate mixing in the estuaries. These simulations account for time-varying river inflow, variations in estuarine cross-sectional area, and longitudinally varying dispersion coefficients. The model simulates field observations better than models that use constant hydrodynamic coefficients and uniform estuarine geometry. Furthermore, field observations and model simulations are consistent with theoretical 'predictions' that the curvature of propery-salinity distributions depends on the relation between the estuarine residence time and the period of river concentration variation. ?? 1990.

Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India.

PubMed

Sudharsan, D; Adinarayana, J; Reddy, D Raji; Sreenivas, G; Ninomiya, S; Hirafuji, M; Kiura, T; Tanaka, K; Desai, U B; Merchant, S N

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models--standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])--with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

How Monte Carlo heuristics aid to identify the physical processes of drug release kinetics.

PubMed

Lecca, Paola

2018-01-01

We implement a Monte Carlo heuristic algorithm to model drug release from a solid dosage form. We show that with Monte Carlo simulations it is possible to identify and explain the causes of the unsatisfactory predictive power of current drug release models. It is well known that the power-law, the exponential models, as well as those derived from or inspired by them accurately reproduce only the first 60% of the release curve of a drug from a dosage form. In this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation approaches, we show that these models fit quite accurately almost the entire release profile when the release kinetics is not governed by the coexistence of different physico-chemical mechanisms. We show that the accuracy of the traditional models are comparable with those of Monte Carlo heuristics when these heuristics approximate and oversimply the phenomenology of drug release. This observation suggests to develop and use novel Monte Carlo simulation heuristics able to describe the complexity of the release kinetics, and consequently to generate data more similar to those observed in real experiments. Implementing Monte Carlo simulation heuristics of the drug release phenomenology may be much straightforward and efficient than hypothesizing and implementing from scratch complex mathematical models of the physical processes involved in drug release. Identifying and understanding through simulation heuristics what processes of this phenomenology reproduce the observed data and then formalize them in mathematics may allow avoiding time-consuming, trial-error based regression procedures. Three bullet points, highlighting the customization of the procedure. •An efficient heuristics based on Monte Carlo methods for simulating drug release from solid dosage form encodes is presented. It specifies the model of the physical process in a simple but accurate way in the formula of the Monte Carlo Micro Step (MCS) time interval.•Given the experimentally observed curve of drug release, we point out how Monte Carlo heuristics can be integrated in an evolutionary algorithmic approach to infer the mode of MCS best fitting the observed data, and thus the observed release kinetics.•The software implementing the method is written in R language, the free most used language in the bioinformaticians community.

OpenSim: a musculoskeletal modeling and simulation framework for in silico investigations and exchange

PubMed Central

Seth, Ajay; Sherman, Michael; Reinbolt, Jeffrey A.; Delp, Scott L.

2015-01-01

Movement science is driven by observation, but observation alone cannot elucidate principles of human and animal movement. Biomechanical modeling and computer simulation complement observations and inform experimental design. Biological models are complex and specialized software is required for building, validating, and studying them. Furthermore, common access is needed so that investigators can contribute models to a broader community and leverage past work. We are developing OpenSim, a freely available musculoskeletal modeling and simulation application and libraries specialized for these purposes, by providing: musculoskeletal modeling elements, such as biomechanical joints, muscle actuators, ligament forces, compliant contact, and controllers; and tools for fitting generic models to subject-specific data, performing inverse kinematics and forward dynamic simulations. OpenSim performs an array of physics-based analyses to delve into the behavior of musculoskeletal models by employing Simbody, an efficient and accurate multibody system dynamics code. Models are publicly available and are often reused for multiple investigations because they provide a rich set of behaviors that enables different lines of inquiry. This report will discuss one model developed to study walking and applied to gain deeper insights into muscle function in pathological gait and during running. We then illustrate how simulations can test fundamental hypotheses and focus the aims of in vivo experiments, with a postural stability platform and human model that provide a research environment for performing human posture experiments in silico. We encourage wide adoption of OpenSim for community exchange of biomechanical models and methods and welcome new contributors. PMID:25893160

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate and climate-independent factors on the lifecycle of the tick Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludwig, Antoinette; Ginsberg, Howard; Hickling, Graham J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2016-01-01

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

A Dynamic Population Model to Investigate Effects of Climate and Climate-Independent Factors on the Lifecycle of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae).

PubMed

Ludwig, Antoinette; Ginsberg, Howard S; Hickling, Graham J; Ogden, Nicholas H

2016-01-01

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick. © Crown copyright 2015.

Sensitivity of polar ozone recovery predictions of the GMI 3D CTM to GCM and DAS dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D.; Connell, P.; Strahan, S.; Douglass, A.; Rotman, D.

2003-04-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) 3-D chemistry and transport model has been used to generate 2 simulations of the 1995-2030 time period. The 36-year simulations both used the source gas and aerosol boundary conditions of the 2002 World Meteorological Organization assessment exercise MA2. The first simulation was based on a single year of meteorological data (winds, temperatures) generated by the new Goddard Space Flight Center "Finite Volume" General Circulation Model (FVGCM), repeated for each year of the simulation. The second simulation used a year of meteorological data generated by a new data assimilation system based on the FVGCM (FVDAS), using observations for July 1, 1999 - June 30, 2000. All other aspects of the two simulations were identical. The increase in vortex-averaged south polar springtime ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over the course of the simulations is more robust in the simulation driven by the GCM meteorological data than in the simulation driven by DAS winds. At the same time, the decrease in estimated chemical springtime ozone loss is similar. We thus attribute the differences between the two simulations to differences in the representations of polar dynamics which reduce the sensitivity of the simulation driven by DAS winds to changes in vortex chemistry. We also evaluate the representations in the two simulations of trace constituent distributions in the current polar lower stratosphere using various observations. In these comparisons the GCM-based simulation often is in better agreement with the observations than the DAS-based simulation.

High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutson, T. R.

2007-12-01

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our model reproduces the observed increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (numbers, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Power Dissipation Index (PDI), etc.) over the period 1980-2006 fairly realistically, and also simulates ENSO-related interannual variations in hurricane counts. Annual simulated hurricane counts from a two-member ensemble correlate with observed counts at r=0.86. However, the model does not simulate hurricanes as intense as those observed, with minimum central pressures of 937 hPa (category 4) and maximum surface winds of 47 m/s (category 2) being the most intense simulated so far in these experiments. To explore possible impacts of future climate warming on Atlantic hurricane activity, we are re-running the 1980- 2006 seasons, keeping the interannual to multidecadal variations unchanged, but altering the August-October mean climate according to changes simulated by an 18-member ensemble of AR4 climate models (years 2080- 2099, A1B emission scenario). The warmer climate state features higher Atlantic SSTs, and also increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean (Vecchi and Soden, GRL 2007). A key assumption of this approach is that the 18-model ensemble-mean climate change is the best available projection of future climate change in the Atlantic. Some of the 18 global models show little increase in wind shear, or even a decrease, and thus there will be considerable uncertainty associated with the hurricane frequency results, which will require further exploration. Results from our simulations will be presented at the meeting.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Koppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Bonfils, Celine J. W.

2015-06-05

Köppen bioclimatic classification relates generic vegetation types to characteristics of the interactive annual-cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). In addition to predicting possible bioclimatic consequences of past or prospective climate change, a Köppen scheme can be used to pinpoint biases in model simulations of historical T and P. In this study a Köppen evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations of historical climate is conducted for the period 1980–1999. Evaluation of an example CMIP5 model illustrates how errors in simulating Köppen vegetation types (relative to those derived from observational reference data) can be deconstructed and related tomore » model-specific temperature and precipitation biases. Measures of CMIP model skill in simulating the reference Köppen vegetation types are also developed, allowing the bioclimatic performance of a CMIP5 simulation of T and P to be compared quantitatively with its CMIP3 antecedent. Although certain bioclimatic discrepancies persist across model generations, the CMIP5 models collectively display an improved rendering of historical T and P relative to their CMIP3 counterparts. Additionally, the Köppen-based performance metrics are found to be quite insensitive to alternative choices of observational reference data or to differences in model horizontal resolution.« less

Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Han, Bin; Varble, Adam

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop,more » pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.« less

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.;

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin;

Validating Pseudo-dynamic Source Models against Observed Ground Motion Data at the SCEC Broadband Platform, Ver 16.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, S. G.

2016-12-01

Simulation-based ground motion prediction approaches have several benefits over empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). For instance, full 3-component waveforms can be produced and site-specific hazard analysis is also possible. However, it is important to validate them against observed ground motion data to confirm their efficiency and validity before practical uses. There have been community efforts for these purposes, which are supported by the Broadband Platform (BBP) project at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). In the simulation-based ground motion prediction approaches, it is a critical element to prepare a possible range of scenario rupture models. I developed a pseudo-dynamic source model for Mw 6.5-7.0 by analyzing a number of dynamic rupture models, based on 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters (Song et al. 2014; Song 2016). In this study, the developed pseudo-dynamic source models were tested against observed ground motion data at the SCEC BBP, Ver 16.5. The validation was performed at two stages. At the first stage, simulated ground motions were validated against observed ground motion data for past events such as the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge, California, earthquakes. At the second stage, they were validated against the latest version of empirical GMPEs, i.e., NGA-West2. The validation results show that the simulated ground motions produce ground motion intensities compatible with observed ground motion data at both stages. The compatibility of the pseudo-dynamic source models with the omega-square spectral decay and the standard deviation of the simulated ground motion intensities are also discussed in the study

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Modelled glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muresan, Ioana S.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Aschwanden, Andy; Khroulev, Constantine; Van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Kjær, Kurt H.

2016-03-01

Observations over the past 2 decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional three-dimensional outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in western Greenland. Our approach is to model and understand the recent behaviour of JI with a physical process-based model. Using atmospheric forcing and an ocean parametrization we tune our model to reproduce observed frontal changes of JI during 1990-2014. In our simulations, most of the JI retreat during 1990-2014 is driven by the ocean parametrization used and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. In general, the study shows significant progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI. Our results suggest that the overall variability in modelled horizontal velocities is a response to variations in terminus position. The model simulates two major accelerations that are consistent with observations of changes in glacier terminus. The first event occurred in 1998 and was triggered by a retreat of the front and moderate thinning of JI prior to 1998. The second event, which started in 2003 and peaked in the summer 2004, was triggered by the final break-up of the floating tongue. This break-up reduced the buttressing at the JI terminus that resulted in further thinning. As the terminus retreated over a reverse bed slope into deeper water, sustained high velocities over the last decade have been observed at JI. Our model provides evidence that the 1998 and 2003 flow accelerations are most likely initiated by the ocean parametrization used but JI's subsequent dynamic response was governed by its own bed geometry. We are unable to reproduce the observed 2010-2012 terminus retreat in our simulations. We attribute this limitation to either inaccuracies in basal topography or to misrepresentations of the climatic forcings that were applied. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate the previously observed increase in mass loss through 2014.

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties Among Aerocom Models of a Range of Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.;

Simulations of Solar Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-02-01

Formation of a coronal jet from twisted field lines that have reconnected with the ambient field. The colors show the radial velocity of the plasma. [Adapted from Szente et al. 2017]How do jets emitted from the Suns surface contribute to its corona and to the solar wind? In a recent study, a team of scientists performed complex three-dimensional simulations of coronal jets to answer these questions.Small ExplosionsCoronal jets are relatively small eruptions from the Suns surface, with heights of roughly 100 to 10,000 km, speeds of 10 to 1,000 km/s, and lifetimes of a few minutes to around ten hours. These jets are constantly present theyre emitted even from the quiet Sun, when activity is otherwise low and weve observed them with a fleet of Sun-watching space telescopes spanning the visible, extreme ultraviolet (EUV), and X-ray wavelength bands.A comparison of simulated observations based on the authors model (left panels) to actual EUV and X-ray observations of jets (right panels). [Szente et al. 2017]Due to their ubiquity, we speculate that these jets might contribute to heating the global solar corona (which is significantly hotter than the surface below it, a curiosity known as the coronal heating problem). We can also wonder what role these jets might play in driving the overall solar wind.Launching a JetLed by Judit Szente (University of Michigan), a team of scientists has explored the impact of coronal jets on the global corona and solar wind with a series of numerical simulations. Szente and collaborators used three-dimensional, magnetohydrodynamic simulations that provide realistic treatment of the solar atmosphere, the solar wind acceleration, and the complexities of heat transfer throughout the corona.In the authors simulations, a jet is initiated as a magnetic dipole rotates at the solar surface, winding up field lines. Magnetic reconnection between the twisted lines and the background field then launches the jet from the dense and hot solar chromosphere, and erupting plasma is released outward into the solar corona.A second comparison of simulated observations based on the authors model (left panels) to actual EUV observations of jets (right panels). [Szente et al. 2017]Global InfluencesAfter demonstrating that their models could successfully lead to jet production and propagation, Szente and collaborators compared their results to actual observations of solar jets. The authors constructed simulated EUV and X-ray observations of their modeled events, and they verified that the behavior and structures in these simulated observations were very similar to real observations of coronal jet events from telescopes like SDO/AIA and Hinode.With this confirmed, the authors then used their models to determine how the jets influence the global solar corona and the solar wind. They found that the large-scale corona is significantly affected by the plasma waves from the jet, which travel across 40 in latitude and out to 24 solar radii. In spite of this, the simulated jets contributed only a few percent to the steady-state solar-wind energy outflow.These simulations represent an important step in realistic modeling of the quiet Sun. Because the models make specific predictions about temperature and density gradients within the corona, we can look forward to testing them with upcoming missions like Solar Probe Plus, which should be able to explore the Sun all the way down to ninesolar radii.CitationJ. Szente et al 2017 ApJ 834 123. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/123

A multiscale modeling framework model (superparameterized CAM5) with a higher-order turbulence closure: Model description and low-cloud simulations

DOE PAGES

Wang, Minghuai; Larson, Vincent E.; Ghan, Steven; ...

2015-04-18

In this study, a higher-order turbulence closure scheme, called Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB), is implemented into a Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) model to improve low cloud simulations. The performance of CLUBB in MMF simulations with two different microphysics configurations (one-moment cloud microphysics without aerosol treatment and two-moment cloud microphysics coupled with aerosol treatment) is evaluated against observations and further compared with results from the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5 (CAM5) with conventional cloud parameterizations. CLUBB is found to improve low cloud simulations in the MMF, and the improvement is particularly evident in the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regions. Compared tomore » the single-moment cloud microphysics, CLUBB with two-moment microphysics produces clouds that are closer to the coast, and agrees better with observations. In the stratocumulus-to cumulus transition regions, CLUBB with two-moment cloud microphysics produces shortwave cloud forcing in better agreement with observations, while CLUBB with single moment cloud microphysics overestimates shortwave cloud forcing. CLUBB is further found to produce quantitatively similar improvements in the MMF and CAM5, with slightly better performance in the MMF simulations (e.g., MMF with CLUBB generally produces low clouds that are closer to the coast than CAM5 with CLUBB). As a result, improved low cloud simulations in MMF make it an even more attractive tool for studying aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions.« less

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are simulated by the model. We applied spectral decomposition of the ozone time-series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of synoptic (weather-induced variations) and baseline (long-term variation) forcings, embedded in the simulated and observed concentrations. The results reveal that CMAQ captured the year-to-year variability (more so in the later years than the earlier years) and the synoptic forcing in accordance with what the observations are showing. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Atmosphere Assessment for MARS Science Laboratory Entry, Descent and Landing Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cianciolo, Alicia D.; Cantor, Bruce; Barnes, Jeff; Tyler, Daniel, Jr.; Rafkin, Scot; Chen, Allen; Kass, David; Mischna, Michael; Vasavada, Ashwin R.

2013-01-01

On August 6, 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, successfully landed on the surface of Mars. The Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) sequence was designed using atmospheric conditions estimated from mesoscale numerical models. The models, developed by two independent organizations (Oregon State University and the Southwest Research Institute), were validated against observations at Mars from three prior years. In the weeks and days before entry, the MSL "Council of Atmospheres" (CoA), a group of atmospheric scientists and modelers, instrument experts and EDL simulation engineers, evaluated the latest Mars data from orbiting assets including the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Mars Color Imager (MARCI) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). The observations were compared to the mesoscale models developed for EDL performance simulation to determine if a spacecraft parameter update was necessary prior to entry. This paper summarizes the daily atmosphere observations and comparison to the performance simulation atmosphere models. Options to modify the atmosphere model in the simulation to compensate for atmosphere effects are also presented. Finally, a summary of the CoA decisions and recommendations to the MSL project in the days leading up to EDL is provided.

Simulations of the September 1987 lower thermospheric tides with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fesen, C. G.; Roble, R. G.

1991-02-01

The NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) was used to simulate incoherent scatter radar observations of the lower thermosphere tides during the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS) campaign, September 21-26, 1987. The TIGCM utilized time-varying histories of the model input fields obtained from the World Data Center for the LTCS period. The model inputs included solar flux, total hemispheric power, solar wind data from which the cross-polar-cap potential was derived, and geomagnetic Kp index. Calculations were made for the semidiurnal ion temperatures and horizontal neutral winds at locations representative of Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Sondrestrom. Tidal inputs to the TIGCM lower boundary were obtained from the middle atmosphere model of Forbes and Vial (1989). The TIGCM tidal structures are in fair general agreement with the observations. The amplitudes tended to be better simulated than the phases, and the mid- and high-latitude locations are simulated better than the low-latitude thermosphere. The model simulations were used to investigate the daily variability of the tides due to the geomagnetic activity occurring during this period.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R2 was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses. PMID:29257117

Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Yoshida, Y.; Duncan, B. N.; Bucsela, E. J.; Gleason, J. F.; Allen, D.; Pickering, K. E.

2007-01-01

We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China.

PubMed

Li, Zhaofu; Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-12-19

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient ( R ²) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R ² was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses.

Pickup Protons: Comparisons using the Three-Dimensional MHD HHMS-PI model and Ulysses SWICS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.; Detman, Thomas; Gloecker, George; Gloeckler, Christine; Dryer, Murray; Sun, Wei; Intriligator, James; Deehr, Charles

2012-01-01

We report the first comparisons of pickup proton simulation results with in situ measurements of pickup protons obtained by the SWICS instrument on Ulysses. Simulations were run using the three dimensional (3D) time-dependent Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI). HHMS-PI is an MHD solar wind model, expanded to include the basic physics of pickup protons from neutral hydrogen that drifts into the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium. We use the same model and input data developed by Detman et al. (2011) to now investigate the pickup protons. The simulated interval of 82 days in 2003 2004, includes both quiet solar wind (SW) and also the October November 2003 solar events (the Halloween 2003 solar storms). The HHMS-PI pickup proton simulations generally agree with the SWICS measurements and the HHMS-PI simulated solar wind generally agrees with SWOOPS (also on Ulysses) measurements. Many specific features in the observations are well represented by the model. We simulated twenty specific solar events associated with the Halloween 2003 storm. We give the specific values of the solar input parameters for the HHMS-PI simulations that provide the best combined agreement in the times of arrival of the solar-generated shocks at both ACE and Ulysses. We show graphical comparisons of simulated and observed parameters, and we give quantitative measures of the agreement of simulated with observed parameters. We suggest that some of the variations in the pickup proton density during the Halloween 2003 solar events may be attributed to depletion of the inflowing local interstellar medium (LISM) neutral hydrogen (H) caused by its increased conversion to pickup protons in the immediately preceding shock.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

2015-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, B.; Hicks Pries, C.; Phillips, C. L.

2014-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

Effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution, in Irondequoit Creek basin, Monroe and Ontario counties, New York--application of a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Johnson, Mark S.

2005-01-01

Urbanization of the 150-square-mile Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., continues to spread southward and eastward from the City of Rochester, on the shore of Lake Ontario. Conversion of forested land to other uses over the past 40 years has increased to the extent that more than 50 percent of the basin is now developed. This expansion has increased flooding and impaired stream-water quality in the northern (downstream) half of the basin. A precipitation-runoff model of the Irondequoit Creek basin was developed with the model code HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN) to simulate the effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution on the basin. Model performance was evaluated through a combination of graphical comparisons and statistical tests, and indicated 'very good' agreement (mean error less than 10 percent) between observed and simulated daily and monthly streamflows, between observed and simulated monthly water temperatures, and between observed total suspended solids loads and simulated sediment loads. Agreement between monthly observed and simulated nutrient loads was 'very good' (mean error less than 15 percent) or 'good' (mean error between 15 and 25 percent). Results of model simulations indicated that peak flows and loads of sediment and total phosphorus would increase in a rural subbasin, where 10 percent of the basin was converted from forest and grassland to pervious and impervious developed areas. Subsequent simulation of a stormflow-detention basin at the mouth of this subbasin indicated that peak flows and constituent loads would decrease below those that were generated by the land-use-change scenario, and, in some cases, below those that were simulated by the original land-use scenario. Other results from model simulations of peak flows over a 30-year period (1970-2000), with and without simulation of 50-percent flow reductions at one existing and nine hypothetical stormflow-detention basins, indicated that stormflow-detention basins would likely decrease peak flows 14 to 17 percent on Allen Creek and 17 to 18 percent on Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. The model is intended as a management tool that water-resource managers can use to guide decisions regarding future development in the basin. The model and associated files are designed to permit (1) creation of scenarios that represent planned or hypothetical development in the basin, and (2) assessment of the flooding and chemical loads that are likely to result. Instream stormflow-detention basins can be simulated in separate scenarios to assess their effect on flooding and chemical loads. This report (1) provides examples of how the model can be applied to address these issues, (2) discusses the model revisions required to simulate land-use changes and detention basins, and (3) describes the analytical steps necessary to evaluate the model results.

Effects of magnetospheric lobe cell convection on dayside upper thermospheric winds at high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Wang, W.; Wu, Q.; Knipp, D.; Kilcommons, L.; Brambles, O. J.; Liu, J.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J. G.; Häggström, I.

2016-08-01

This paper investigates a possible physical mechanism of the observed dayside high-latitude upper thermospheric wind using numerical simulations from the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (CMIT) model. Results show that the CMIT model is capable of reproducing the unexpected afternoon equatorward winds in the upper thermosphere observed by the High altitude Interferometer WIND observation (HIWIND) balloon. Models that lack adequate coupling produce poleward winds. The modeling study suggests that ion drag driven by magnetospheric lobe cell convection is another possible mechanism for turning the climatologically expected dayside poleward winds to the observed equatorward direction. The simulation results are validated by HIWIND, European Incoherent Scatter, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. The results suggest a strong momentum coupling between high-latitude ionospheric plasma circulation and thermospheric neutral winds in the summer hemisphere during positive IMF Bz periods, through the formation of magnetospheric lobe cell convection driven by persistent positive IMF By. The CMIT simulation adds important insight into the role of dayside coupling during intervals of otherwise quiet geomagnetic activity

Validation of an intermediate-complexity model for simulating marine biogeochemistry under anoxic conditions in the modern Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romaniello, Stephen J.; Derry, Louis A.

2010-08-01

We test the ability of a new 1-D intermediate-complexity box model (ICBM) that includes process-based C, N, P, O, and S biogeochemistry to simulate profiles and fluxes of biogeochemically reactive species across a wide range of ocean redox states. The ICBM was developed to simulate whole ocean processes for paleoceanographic applications and has been tested with data from the modern global ocean. Here we adapt the circulation submodel of the ICBM to simulate water mass exchange and eddy diffusion processes in the Black Sea but make only very minor changes to the biogeochemical submodel. We force the model with estimated natural and anthropogenic inputs of tracers and nutrients to the Black Sea and compare the results of the simulations to modern observations. Ventilation of the Black Sea is modeled by depth-dependent entrainment of Cold Intermediate Layer water into Bosphorus plume water and subsequent intrusion into deep layers. The simulated profiles of circulation tracers θ, salinity, CFC-12, and radiocarbon agree well with available data, suggesting that the model does a reasonable job of representing physical exchange. Vertical profiles of biogeochemically active components are in good overall agreement with observations. The lack of trace metal (Mn and Fe) cycling in the model results in some discrepancies between the simulated profiles and observation across the suboxic zone; however, the overall redox balance is not sensitive to this difference. We compare modeled basin-wide biogeochemical fluxes to available estimates, but in a number of cases uncertainties in modern budgets limit our ability to test the model rigorously. In agreement with earlier work we find that fixed N losses via thiodenitrification are likely a major pathway in the Black Sea N cycle. Overall, the same biogeochemical submodel used to simulate the modern global ocean appears to perform well in simulating Black Sea processes without requiring significant modification. The ability of a single model to perform across a wide range of redox states is an important prerequisite for applying the ICBM to deep time paleoceanographic problems. The model source code is available as MATLAB™ 7 m-files provided as auxiliary material.

CO2 Condensation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R.

2004-01-01

During the polar night in both hemispheres of Mars, regions of low thermal emission, frequently referred to as "cold spots", have been observed by Mariner 9, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. These cold spots vary in time and appear to be associated with topographic features suggesting that they are the result of a spectral-emission effect due to surface accumulation of fine-grained frost or snow. Presented here are simulations of the Martian polar night using the NASA Ames General Circulation Cloud Model. This cloud model incorporates all the microphysical processes of carbon dioxide cloud formation, including nucleation, condensation and sedimentation and is coupled to a surface frost scheme that includes both direct surface condensation and precipitation. Using this cloud model we simulate the Mars polar nights and compare model results to observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Model predictions of "cold spots" compare well with TES observations of low emissivity regions, both spatially and as a function of season. The model predicted frequency of CO2 cloud formation also agrees well with MOLA observations of polar night cloud echoes. Together the simulations and observations in the North indicate a distinct shift in atmospheric state centered about Ls 270 which we believe may be associated with the strength of the polar vortex.

Using micro-simulation to investigate the safety impacts of transit design alternatives at signalized intersections.

PubMed

Li, Lu; Persaud, Bhagwant; Shalaby, Amer

2017-03-01

This study investigates the use of crash prediction models and micro-simulation to develop an effective surrogate safety assessment measure at the intersection level. With the use of these tools, hypothetical scenarios can be developed and explored to evaluate the safety impacts of design alternatives in a controlled environment, in which factors not directly associated with the design alternatives can be fixed. Micro-simulation models are developed, calibrated, and validated. Traffic conflicts in the micro-simulation models are estimated and linked with observed crash frequency, which greatly alleviates the lengthy time needed to collect sufficient crash data for evaluating alternatives, due to the rare and infrequent nature of crash events. A set of generalized linear models with negative binomial error structure is developed to correlate the simulated conflicts with the observed crash frequency in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Crash prediction models are also developed for crashes of different impact types and for transit-involved crashes. The resulting statistical significance and the goodness-of-fit of the models suggest adequate predictive ability. Based on the established correlation between simulated conflicts and observed crashes, scenarios are developed in the micro-simulation models to investigate the safety effects of individual transit line elements by making hypothetical modifications to such elements and estimating changes in crash frequency from the resulting changes in conflicts. The findings imply that the existing transit signal priority schemes can have a negative effect on safety performance, and that the existing near-side stop positioning and streetcar transit type can be safer at their current state than if they were to be replaced by their respective counterparts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

Evaluation of mean climate in a chemistry-climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Park, H.; Wie, J.; Park, R.; Lee, S.; Moon, B. K.

2017-12-01

Incorporation of the interactive chemistry is essential for understanding chemistry-climate interactions and feedback processes in climate models. Here we assess a newly developed chemistry-climate model (GRIMs-Chem), which is based on the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) including the aerosol direct effect as well as stratospheric linearized ozone chemistry (LINOZ). We conducted GRIMs-Chem with observed sea surface temperature during the period of 1979-2010, and compared the simulation results with observations and also with CMIP models. To measure the relative performance of our model, we define the quantitative performance metric using the Taylor diagram. This metric allow us to assess overall features in simulating multiple variables. Overall, our model better reproduce the zonal mean spatial pattern of temperature, horizontal wind, vertical motion, and relative humidity relative to other models. However, the model did not produce good simulations at upper troposphere (200 hPa). It is currently unclear which model processes are responsible for this. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program."

Torus Approach in Gravity Field Determination from Simulated GOCE Gravity Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huanling; Wen, Hanjiang; Xu, Xinyu; Zhu, Guangbin

2016-08-01

In Torus approach, observations are projected to the nominal orbits with constant radius and inclination, lumped coefficients provides a linear relationship between observations and spherical harmonic coefficients. Based on the relationship, two-dimensional FFT and block-diagonal least-squares adjustment are used to recover Earth's gravity field model. The Earth's gravity field model complete to degree and order 200 is recovered using simulated satellite gravity gradients on a torus grid, and the degree median error is smaller than 10-18, which shows the effectiveness of Torus approach. EGM2008 is employed as a reference model and the gravity field model is resolved using the simulated observations without noise given on GOCE orbits of 61 days. The error from reduction and interpolation can be mitigated by iterations. Due to polar gap, the precision of low-order coefficients is lower. Without considering these coefficients the maximum geoid degree error and cumulative error are 0.022mm and 0.099mm, respectively. The Earth's gravity field model is also recovered from simulated observations with white noise 5mE/Hz1/2, which is compared to that from direct method. In conclusion, it is demonstrated that Torus approach is a valid method for processing massive amount of GOCE gravity gradients.

Simulations of galaxy cluster collisions with a dark plasma component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spethmann, Christian; Veermäe, Hardi; Sepp, Tiit; Heikinheimo, Matti; Deshev, Boris; Hektor, Andi; Raidal, Martti

2017-12-01

Context. Dark plasma is an intriguing form of self-interacting dark matter with an effective fluid-like behavior, which is well motivated by various theoretical particle physics models. Aims: We aim to find an explanation for an isolated mass clump in the Abell 520 system, which cannot be explained by traditional models of dark matter, but has been detected in weak lensing observations. Methods: We performed N-body smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of galaxy cluster collisions with a two component model of dark matter, which is assumed to consist of a predominant non-interacting dark matter component and a 10-40% mass fraction of dark plasma. Results: The mass of a possible dark clump was calculated for each simulation in a parameter scan over the underlying model parameters. In two higher resolution simulations shock-waves and Mach cones were observed to form in the dark plasma halos. Conclusions: By choosing suitable simulation parameters, the observed distributions of dark matter in both the Bullet cluster (1E 0657-558) and Abell 520 (MS 0451.5+0250) can be qualitatively reproduced. Movies associated to Figs. A.1 and A.2 are available at http://www.aanda.org

An Analysis of Simulated Wet Deposition of Mercury from the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study

EPA Science Inventory

A previous intercomparison of atmospheric mercury models in North America has been extended to compare simulated and observed wet deposition of mercury. Three regional-scale atmospheric mercury models were tested; CMAQ, REMSAD and TEAM. These models were each employed using thr...

Two-year concurrent observation of isoprene at 20 sites over China: comparison with MEGAN-REAM model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Lyu, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, G.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Isoprene, the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon emitted from plants, directly and indirectly affects atmospheric photochemistry and radiative forcing, yet narrowing its emission uncertainties is a continuous challenge. Comparison of observed and modelled isoprene on large spatiotemporal scales would help recognize factors that control isoprene variability, systematic field observation data are however quite lacking. Here we collected ambient air samples with 1 L silonite-treated stainless steel canisters simultaneously at 20 sites over China on every Wednesday at approximately 14:00 pm Beijing time from 2012 to 2014, and analyzed isoprene mixing ratios by preconcentrator-GC-MSD/FID. Observed isoprene mixing ratios were also compared with that simulated by coupling MEGAN 2.0 (Guenther et al., 2006) with a 3-D Regional chEmical trAnsport Model (REAM) (Zhang et al., 2017). Similar seasonal variations between observation and model simulation were obtained for most of sampling sites, but overall the average isoprene mixing ratios during growing months (May to October) was 0.37 ± 0.08 ppbv from model simulation, about 32% lower than that of 0.54 ± 0.20 ppbv based on ground-based observation, and this discrepancy was particularly significant in north China during wintertime. Further investigation demonstrated that emission of biogenic isoprene in northwest China might be underestimated and non-biogenic emission, such burning biomass/biofuel, might contribute to the elevated levels of isoprene during winter time. The observation-based empirical formulas for changing isoprene emission with solar radiation and temperature were also derived for different regions of China.

THE SPECTRAL AMPLITUDE OF STELLAR CONVECTION AND ITS SCALING IN THE HIGH-RAYLEIGH-NUMBER REGIME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Featherstone, Nicholas A.; Hindman, Bradley W., E-mail: feathern@colorado.edu

2016-02-10

Convection plays a central role in the dynamics of any stellar interior, and yet its operation remains largely hidden from direct observation. As a result, much of our understanding concerning stellar convection necessarily derives from theoretical and computational models. The Sun is, however, exceptional in that regard. The wealth of observational data afforded by its proximity provides a unique test bed for comparing convection models against observations. When such comparisons are carried out, surprising inconsistencies between those models and observations become apparent. Both photospheric and helioseismic measurements suggest that convection simulations may overestimate convective flow speeds on large spatial scales.more » Moreover, many solar convection simulations have difficulty reproducing the observed solar differential rotation owing to this apparent overestimation. We present a series of three-dimensional stellar convection simulations designed to examine how the amplitude and spectral distribution of convective flows are established within a star’s interior. While these simulations are nonmagnetic and nonrotating in nature, they demonstrate two robust phenomena. When run with sufficiently high Rayleigh number, the integrated kinetic energy of the convection becomes effectively independent of thermal diffusion, but the spectral distribution of that kinetic energy remains sensitive to both of these quantities. A simulation that has converged to a diffusion-independent value of kinetic energy will divide that energy between spatial scales such that low-wavenumber power is overestimated and high-wavenumber power is underestimated relative to a comparable system possessing higher Rayleigh number. We discuss the implications of these results in light of the current inconsistencies between models and observations.« less

Attribution of Observed Streamflow Changes in Key British Columbia Drainage Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Zwiers, Francis W.; Gillett, Nathan P.

2017-11-01

We study the observed decline in summer streamflow in four key river basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using a formal detection and attribution (D&A) analysis procedure. Reconstructed and simulated streamflow is generated using the semidistributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model, which is driven by 1/16° gridded observations and downscaled climate model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), respectively. The internal variability of the regional hydrologic components using 5100 years of streamflow was simulated using CMIP5 preindustrial control runs. Results show that the observed changes in summer streamflow are inconsistent with simulations representing the responses to natural forcing factors alone, while the response to anthropogenic and natural forcing factors combined is detected in these changes. A two-signal D&A analysis indicates that the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing factors are discernable from natural forcing in BC, albeit with large uncertainties.

Estimation of saltation emission in the Kubuqi Desert, North China.

PubMed

Du, Heqiang; Xue, Xian; Wang, Tao

2014-05-01

The Kubuqi Desert suffered more severe wind erosion hazard. Every year, a mass of aeolian sand was blown in the Ten Tributaries that are tributaries of the Yellow River. To estimate the quantity of aeolian sediment blown into the Ten Tributaries from the Kubuqi Desert, it is necessary to simulate the saltation processes of the Kubuqi Desert. A saltation submodel of the IWEMS (Integrated Wind-Erosion Modeling System) and its accompanying RS (Remote Sensing) and GIS (Geographic Information System) methods were used to model saltation emissions in the Kubuqi Desert. To calibrate the saltation submodel, frontal area of vegetation, soil moisture, wind velocity and saltation sediment were observed synchronously on several points in 2011 and 2012. In this study, a model namely BEACH (Bridge Event And Continuous Hydrological) was introduced to simulate the daily soil moisture. Using the surface parameters (frontal area of vegetation and soil moisture) along with the observed wind velocities and saltation sediments for the observed points, the saltation model was calibrated and validated. To reduce the simulate error, a subdaily wind velocity program, WINDGEN was introduced in this model to simulate the hourly wind velocity of the Kubuqi Desert. By incorporating simulated hourly wind velocity, and model variables, the saltation emission of the Kubuqi Desert was modeled. The model results show that the total sediment flow rate was 1-30.99 tons/m over the last 10years (2001-2010). The saltation emission mainly occurs in the north central part of the Kubuqi Desert in winter and spring. Integrating the wind directions, the quantity of the aeolian sediment that deposits in the Ten Tributaries was estimated. Compared with the observed data by the local government and hydrometric stations, our estimation is reasonable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Grain Size Distribution of Tsunami Sand Deposits in V-shaped Valley of Numanohama During the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Goto, T.; Takahashi, T.

2016-12-01

Estimating tsunami amplitude from tsunami sand deposit has been a challenge. The grain size distribution of tsunami sand deposit may have correlation with tsunami inundation process, and further with its source characteristics. In order to test this hypothesis, we need a tsunami sediment transport model that can accurately estimate grain size distribution of tsunami deposit. Here, we built and validate a tsunami sediment transport model that can simulate grain size distribution. Our numerical model has three layers which are suspended load layer, active bed layer, and parent bed layer. The two bed layers contain information about the grain size distribution. This numerical model can handle a wide range of grain sizes from 0.063 (4 ϕ) to 5.657 mm (-2.5 ϕ). We apply the numerical model to simulate the sedimentation process during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Numanohama, Iwate prefecture, Japan. The grain size distributions at 15 sample points along a 900 m transect from the beach are used to validate the tsunami sediment transport model. The tsunami deposits are dominated by coarse sand with diameter of 0.5 - 1 mm and their thickness are up to 25 cm. Our tsunami model can well reproduce the observed tsunami run-ups that are ranged from 16 to 34 m along the steep valley in Numanohama. The shapes of the simulated grain size distributions at many sample points located within 300 m from the shoreline are similar to the observations. The differences between observed and simulated peak of grain size distributions are less than 1 ϕ. Our result also shows that the simulated sand thickness distribution along the transect is consistent with the observation.

Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki; Errico, R. M.; Carvalho, D.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.

Reusable Component Model Development Approach for Parallel and Distributed Simulation

PubMed Central

Zhu, Feng; Yao, Yiping; Chen, Huilong; Yao, Feng

2014-01-01

Model reuse is a key issue to be resolved in parallel and distributed simulation at present. However, component models built by different domain experts usually have diversiform interfaces, couple tightly, and bind with simulation platforms closely. As a result, they are difficult to be reused across different simulation platforms and applications. To address the problem, this paper first proposed a reusable component model framework. Based on this framework, then our reusable model development approach is elaborated, which contains two phases: (1) domain experts create simulation computational modules observing three principles to achieve their independence; (2) model developer encapsulates these simulation computational modules with six standard service interfaces to improve their reusability. The case study of a radar model indicates that the model developed using our approach has good reusability and it is easy to be used in different simulation platforms and applications. PMID:24729751

Oceanic response to tropical cyclone `Phailin' in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pant, V.; Prakash, K. R.

2016-02-01

Vertical mixing largely explains surface cooling induced by Tropical Cyclones (TCs). However, TC-induced upwelling of deeper waters plays an important role as it partly balances the warming of subsurface waters induced by vertical mixing. Below 100 m, vertical advection results in cooling that persists for a few days after the storm. The present study investigates the integrated ocean response to tropical cyclone `Phaillin' (10-14 October 2013) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) through both coupled and stand-alone ocean-atmosphere models. Two numerical experiments with different coupling configurations between Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) were performed to investigate the impact of Phailin cyclone on the surface and sub-surface oceanic parameters. In the first experiment, ocean circulation model ROMS observe surface wind forcing from a mesoscale atmospheric model (WRF with nested damin setup), while rest forcing parameters are supplied to ROMS from NCEP data. In the second experiment, all surface forcing data to ROMS directly comes from WRF. The modeling components and data fields exchanged between atmospheric and oceanic models are described. The coupled modeling system is used to identify model sensitivity by exchanging prognostic variable fields between the two model components during simulation of Phallin cyclone (10-14 October 2013) in the BoB.In general, the simulated Phailin cyclone track and intensities agree well with observations in WRF simulations. Further, the inter-comparison between stand-alone and coupled model simulations validated against observations highlights better performance of coupled modeling system in simulating the oceanic conditions during the Phailin cyclone event.

COSMO-PAFOG: Three-dimensional fog forecasting with the high-resolution COSMO-model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hacker, Maike; Bott, Andreas

2017-04-01

The presence of fog can have critical impact on shipping, aviation and road traffic increasing the risk of serious accidents. Besides these negative impacts of fog, in arid regions fog is explored as a supplementary source of water for human settlements. Thus the improvement of fog forecasts holds immense operational value. The aim of this study is the development of an efficient three-dimensional numerical fog forecast model based on a mesoscale weather prediction model for the application in the Namib region. The microphysical parametrization of the one-dimensional fog forecast model PAFOG (PArameterized FOG) is implemented in the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic mesoscale weather prediction model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling) developed and maintained by the German Meteorological Service. Cloud water droplets are introduced in COSMO as prognostic variables, thus allowing a detailed description of droplet sedimentation. Furthermore, a visibility parametrization depending on the liquid water content and the droplet number concentration is implemented. The resulting fog forecast model COSMO-PAFOG is run with kilometer-scale horizontal resolution. In vertical direction, we use logarithmically equidistant layers with 45 of 80 layers in total located below 2000 m. Model results are compared to satellite observations and synoptic observations of the German Meteorological Service for a domain in the west of Germany, before the model is adapted to the geographical and climatological conditions in the Namib desert. COSMO-PAFOG is able to represent the horizontal structure of fog patches reasonably well. Especially small fog patches typical of radiation fog can be simulated in agreement with observations. Ground observations of temperature are also reproduced. Simulations without the PAFOG microphysics yield unrealistically high liquid water contents. This in turn reduces the radiative cooling of the ground, thus inhibiting nocturnal temperature decrease. The simulated visibility agrees with observations. However, fog tends to be dissolved earlier than in the observation. As a result of the investigated fog events, it is concluded that the three-dimensional fog forecast model COSMO-PAFOG is able to simulate these fog events in accordance with observations. After the successful application of COSMO-PAFOG for fog events in the west of Germany, model simulations will be performed for coastal desert fog in the Namib region.

How Continuous Observations of Shortwave Reflectance Spectra Can Narrow the Range of Shortwave Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D.; Collins, W. D.; Wielicki, B. A.; Shea, Y.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Kuo, C.; Nguyen, N.

2017-12-01

Shortwave feedbacks are a persistent source of uncertainty for climate models and a large contributor to the diagnosed range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for the international multi-model ensemble. The processes that contribute to these feedbacks affect top-of-atmosphere energetics and produce spectral signatures that may be time-evolving. We explore the value of such spectral signatures for providing an observational constraint on model ECS by simulating top-of-atmosphere shortwave reflectance spectra across much of the energetically-relevant shortwave bandpass (300 to 2500 nm). We present centennial-length shortwave hyperspectral simulations from low, medium and high ECS models that reported to the CMIP5 archive as part of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in support of the CLimate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). Our framework interfaces with CMIP5 archive results and is agnostic to the choice of model. We simulated spectra from the INM-CM4 model (ECS of 2.08 °K/2xCO2), the MIROC5 model (ECS of 2.70 °K/2xCO2), and the CSIRO Mk3-6-0 (ECS of 4.08 °K/2xCO2) based on those models' integrations of the RCP8.5 scenario for the 21st Century. This approach allows us to explore how perfect data records can exclude models of lower or higher climate sensitivity. We find that spectral channels covering visible and near-infrared water-vapor overtone bands can potentially exclude a low or high sensitivity model with under 15 years' of absolutely-calibrated data. These different spectral channels are sensitive to model cloud radiative effect and cloud height changes, respectively. These unprecedented calculations lay the groundwork for spectral simulations of perturbed-physics ensembles in order to identify those shortwave observations that can help narrow the range in shortwave model feedbacks and ultimately help reduce the stubbornly-large range in model ECS.

Sensitivity Analysis of Delft3d Simulations at Duck, NC, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penko, A.; Boggs, S.; Palmsten, M.

2017-12-01

Our objective is to set up and test Delft3D, a high-resolution coupled wave and circulation model, to provide real-time nowcasts of hydrodynamics at Duck, NC, USA. Here, we test the sensitivity of the model to various parameters and boundary conditions. In order to validate the model simulations we compared the results to observational data. Duck, NC was chosen as our test site due to the extensive array of observational oceanographic, bathymetric, and meteorological data collected by the Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF). Observations were recorded with Acoustic Wave and Current meters (AWAC) at 6-m and 11-m depths as well as a 17-m depth Waverider buoy. The model is set up with an outer and inner nested domain. The outer grid extends 12-km in the along-shore and 3.5-km in the cross-shore with a 50-m resolution and a maximum depth of 17-m. Spectral wave measurements from the 17-m Waverider buoy drove Delft3D-WAVE in the outer grid. We compared the results of five outer grid simulations to wave and current observations collected at the FRF. The model simulations are then compared to the wave and current measurements collected at the 6-m and 11-m AWACs. To determine the best parameters and boundary conditions for the model set up at Duck, we calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) between the simulation results and the observations. Several conclusions were made: 1) The addition of astronomic tides have a significant effect on the circulation magnitude and direction, 2) incorporating an updated bathymetry in the bottom boundary condition has a small effect in shallower (<8-m) depths, 3) decreasing the wave bed friction by 50% did not affect the wave predictions and 4) the accuracy of the simulated wave heights improved as wind and wave forcing at the lateral boundaries were included.

Cold dark matter. 1: The formation of dark halos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelb, James M.; Bertschinger, Edmund

1994-01-01

We use numerical simulations of critically closed cold dark matter (CDM) models to study the effects of numerical resolution on observable quantities. We study simulations with up to 256(exp 3) particles using the particle-mesh (PM) method and with up to 144(exp 3) particles using the adaptive particle-particle-mesh (P3M) method. Comparisons of galaxy halo distributions are made among the various simulations. We also compare distributions with observations, and we explore methods for identifying halos, including a new algorithm that finds all particles within closed contours of the smoothed density field surrounding a peak. The simulated halos show more substructure than predicted by the Press-Schechter theory. We are able to rule out all omega = 1 CDM models for linear amplitude sigma(sub 8) greater than or approximately = 0.5 because the simulations produce too many massive halos compared with the observations. The simulations also produce too many low-mass halos. The distribution of halos characterized by their circular velocities for the P3M simulations is in reasonable agreement with the observations for 150 km/s less than or = V(sub circ) less than or = 350 km/s.

Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.;

Optimizing Fukushima Emissions Through Pattern Matching and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Simpson, M. D.; Philip, C. S.; Baskett, R.

2017-12-01

Hazardous conditions during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident hindered direct observations of the emissions of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. A wide range of emissions are estimated from bottom-up studies using reactor inventories and top-down approaches based on inverse modeling. We present a new inverse modeling estimate of cesium-137 emitted from the Fukushima NPP. Our estimate considers weather uncertainty through a large ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and uses the FLEXPART atmospheric dispersion model to transport and deposit cesium. The simulations are constrained by observations of the spatial distribution of cumulative cesium deposited on the surface of Japan through April 2, 2012. Multiple spatial metrics are used to quantify differences between observed and simulated deposition patterns. In order to match the observed pattern, we use a multi-objective genetic algorithm to optimize the time-varying emissions. We find that large differences with published bottom-up estimates are required to explain the observations. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Observing System Simulation Experiments for Fun and Profit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.

2015-01-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments can be powerful tools for evaluating and exploring both the behavior of data assimilation systems and the potential impacts of future observing systems. With great power comes great responsibility - given a pure modeling framework, how can we be sure our results are meaningful? The challenges and pitfalls of OSSE calibration and validation will be addressed, as well as issues of incestuousness, selection of appropriate metrics, and experiment design. The use of idealized observational networks to investigate theoretical ideas in a fully complex modeling framework will also be discussed

Three-dimensional variations of atmospheric CO2: aircraft measurements and multi-transport model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niwa, Y.; Patra, P. K.; Sawa, Y.; Machida, T.; Matsueda, H.; Belikov, D.; Maki, T.; Ikegami, M.; Imasu, R.; Maksyutov, S.; Oda, T.; Satoh, M.; Takigawa, M.

2011-04-01

Numerical simulation and validation of three-dimensional structure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is necessary for quantification of transport model uncertainty and its role on surface flux estimation by inverse modeling. Simulations of atmospheric CO2 were performed using four transport models and two sets of surface fluxes compared with an aircraft measurement dataset of Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL), covering various latitudes, longitudes, and heights. Under this transport model intercomparison project, spatiotemporal variations of CO2 concentration for 2006-2007 were analyzed with a three-dimensional perspective. Results show that the models reasonably simulated vertical profiles and seasonal variations not only over northern latitude areas but also over the tropics and southern latitudes. From CONTRAIL measurements and model simulations, intrusion of northern CO2 in to the Southern Hemisphere, through the upper troposphere, was confirmed. Furthermore, models well simulated the vertical propagation of seasonal variation in the northern free-troposphere. However, significant model-observation discrepancies were found in Asian regions, which are attributable to uncertainty of the surface CO2 flux data. The models consistently underestimated the north-tropics mean gradient of CO2 both in the free-troposphere and marine boundary layer during boreal summer. This result suggests that the north-tropics contrast of annual mean net non-fossil CO2 flux should be greater than 2.7 Pg C yr-1 for 2007.

Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

2010-01-01

Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when simulated winds were used to force the model, and when observed winds were used to force the model, and differences between the two results did not accumulate over time.

Simulated Tree Growth across the Northern Hemisphere and the Seasonality of Climate Signals Encoded within Tree-ring Widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; St George, S.

2013-12-01

Both dendrochronological theory and regional and global networks of tree-ring width measurements indicate that trees can respond to climate variations quite differently from one location to another. To explain these geographical differences at hemispheric scale, we used a process-based model of tree-ring formation (the Vaganov-Shashkin model) to simulate tree growth at over 6000 locations across the Northern Hemisphere. We compared the seasonality and strength of climate signals in the simulated tree-ring records against parallel analysis conducted on a hemispheric network of real tree-ring observations, tested the ability of the model to reproduce behaviors that emerge from large networks of tree-ring widths and used the model outputs to explain why the network exhibits these behaviors. The simulated tree-ring records are consistent with observations with respect to the seasonality and relative strength of the encoded climate signals, and time-related changes in these climate signals can be predicted using the modeled relative growth rate due to temperature or soil moisture. The positive imprint of winter (DJF) precipitation is strongest in simulations from the American Southwest and northern Mexico as well as selected locations in the Mediterranean and central Asia. Summer (JJA) precipitation has higher positive correlations with simulations in the mid-latitudes, but some high-latitude coastal sites exhibit a negative association. The influence of summer temperature is mainly positive at high-latitude or high-altitude sites and negative in the mid-latitudes. The absolute magnitude of climate correlations are generally higher in simulations than in observations, but the pattern and geographical differences remain the same, demonstrating that the model has skill in reproducing tree-ring growth response to climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because the model uses only temperature, precipitation and latitude as input and is not adjusted for species or other biological factors, the fact that the climate response of the simulations largely agrees with the observations may imply that climate, rather than biology, is the main factor that influences large-scale patterns of the climate information recorded by tree rings. Our results also suggest that the Vaganov-Shashkin model could be used to estimate the likely climate response of trees in ';frontier' areas that have not been sampled extensively. Seasonal Climate Correlations of Simulated Tree-ring Records

NOy and O3 in the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone: Uncertainties associated with the Convection and Lightning in a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; Ojha, N.; Tost, H.; Joeckel, P.; Fischer, H.; Ziereis, H.; Zahn, A.; Tomsche, L.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-12-01

The impacts of Asian monsoon on the tropospheric chemistry are difficult to simulate in numerical models due to the lack of accurate emission inventories over the Asian region and the strong influence of parameterized processes such as convection and lightning. Further, the lack of observational data over the region during the monsoon period reduce drastically the capability to evaluate numerical models. Here, we combine simulations using the global EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2 Atmospheric Chemistry) model with the observational dataset based on the OMO campaign (July-August 2015) to study the tropospheric composition in the Asian monsoon anticyclone. The results of the simulations capture the C-shape of the CO vertical profiles, typically observed during the summer monsoon. The observed spatio-temporal variations in O3, CO, and NOy are reproduced by EMAC, with a better correlation in the upper troposphere (UT). However, the model overestimates NOy and O3 mixing ratios in the anticyclone by 25% and 35%, respectively. A series of numerical experiments showed the strong lightning emissions in the model as the source of this overestimation, with the anthropogenic NOx sources (in Asia) and global soil emissions having lower impact in the UT. A reduction of the lightning NOx emission by 50% leads to a better agreement between the model and OMO observations of NOy and O3. The uncertainties in the lightning emissions are found to considerably influence the OH distribution in the UT over India and downwind. The study reveals existing uncertainties in the estimations of monsoon impact on the tropospheric composition, and highlights the need to constrain numerical simulations with state-of-the-art observations for deriving the budget of trace species of climatic relevance.

Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodov, B.

2017-12-01

Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon seasons implemented in a flood risk model for Japan.

A Lagrangian analysis of a sudden stratospheric warming - Comparison of a model simulation and LIMS observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, R. B.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Fairlie, T. D.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, William L.; Turner, Richard E.

1992-01-01

Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Kang, In-Sik; Waliser, Duane; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Evaluation of Cloud-resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 1: Deep Convective Updraft Properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varble, A. C.; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridlind, Ann

2014-12-27

Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on January 23-24, 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observed radar reflectivity fields and dual-Doppler retrievals of vertical wind speeds in an attempt to explain published results showing a high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity aloft. This high bias results from ice water content being large, which is a product of large, strong convective updrafts, although hydrometeor size distribution assumptions modulate the size of this bias.more » Snow reflectivity can exceed 40 dBZ in a two-moment scheme when a constant bulk density of 100 kg m-3 is used. Making snow mass more realistically proportional to area rather than volume should somewhat alleviate this problem. Graupel, unlike snow, produces high biased reflectivity in all simulations. This is associated with large amounts of liquid water above the freezing level in updraft cores. Peak vertical velocities in deep convective updrafts are greater than dual-Doppler retrieved values, especially in the upper troposphere. Freezing of large rainwater contents lofted above the freezing level in simulated updraft cores greatly contributes to these excessive upper tropospheric vertical velocities. Strong simulated updraft cores are nearly undiluted, with some showing supercell characteristics. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 900 meters to 100 meters weakens strong updrafts, but not enough to match observational retrievals. Therefore, overly intense simulated updrafts may partly be a product of interactions between convective dynamics, parameterized microphysics, and large-scale environmental biases that promote different convective modes and strengths than observed.« less

Simulation of the Tornado Event of 22 March, 2013 over Brahmanbaria, Bangladesh using WRF Model with 3DVar DA techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahasan, M. N.; Alam, M. M.; Debsarma, S. K.

2015-02-01

A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F2 on the enhanced Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected the Brahmanbaria district of Bangladesh during 1100-1130 UTC of 22 March, 2013. The tornado consumed 38, injured 388 and caused a huge loss of property. The total length travelled by the tornado was about 12-15 km and about 1728 households were affected. An attempt has been made to simulate this rare event using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model was run in a single domain at 9 km resolution for a period of 24 hrs, starting at 0000 UTC on 22 March, 2013. The meteorological conditions that led to form this tornado have been analyzed. The model simulated meteorological conditions are compared with that of a `no severe thunderstorm observed day' on 22 March, 2012. Thus, the model also ran in the same domain at same resolution for 24 hrs, starting at 0000 UTC on 22 March, 2012. The model simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the tornado activity. The model has efficiently captured the common favourable synoptic conditions for the occurrence of severe tornadoes though there are some spatial and temporal biases in the simulation. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 15-20 ms-1, against the estimated wind speed of about 55 ms-1. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall are also in good agreement with the observation. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF model with 3DVar Data Assimilation (DA) techniques in simulation of tornado over Brahmanbaria, Bangladesh.

Simulating Bioremediation of Chloroethenes in a Fractured Rock Aquifer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, G. P.

2016-12-01

Reactive transport simulations are being conducted to synthesize the results of a field experiment on the enhanced bioremediation of chloroethenes in a heterogeneous fractured-rock aquifer near West Trenton, NJ. The aquifer consists of a sequence of dipping mudstone beds, with water-conducting bedding-plane fractures separated by low-permeability rock where transport is diffusion-limited. The enhanced bioremediation experiment was conducted by injecting emulsified vegetable oil as an electron donor (EOS™) and a microbial consortium (KB1™) that contained dehalococcoides ethenogenes into a fracture zone that had maximum trichloroethene (TCE) concentrations of 84µM. TCE was significantly biodegraded to dichloroethene, chloroethene and ethene or CO2 at the injection well and at a downgradient well. The results also show the concomitant reduction of Fe(III) and S(6) and the production of methane . The results were used to calibrate transport models for quantifying the dominant mass-removal mechanisms. A nonreactive transport model was developed to simulate advection, dispersion and matrix diffusion of bromide and deuterium tracers present in the injection solution. This calibrated model matched tracer concentrations at the injection well and a downgradient observation well and demonstrated that matrix diffusion was a dominant control on tracer transport. A reactive transport model was developed to extend the nonreactive transport model to simulate the microbially mediated sequential dechlorination reactions, reduction of Fe(III) and S(6), and methanogenesis. The reactive transport model was calibrated to concentrations of chloride, chloroethenes, pH, alkalinity, redox-sensitive species and major ions, to estimate key biogeochemical kinetic parameters. The simulation results generally match the diverse set of observations at the injection and observation wells throughout the three year experiment. In addition, the observations and model simulations indicate that a significant pool of TCE that was initially sorbed to either the fracture surfaces or in the matrix was degraded during the field experiment. The calibrated reactive transport model will be used to quantify the extent of chloroethene mass removal from a range of hypothetical aquifers.

Application of LANDSAT satellite imagery and oceanographic data for verification of an upwelling mathematical model. [Atlantic Coast of Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Tanaka, K.; Almeida, E. G.

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Data obtained during the cruise of the Cabo Frio and from LANDSAT imagery are used to discuss the characteristics of a linear model which simulates wind induced currents calculated from meteorological conditions at the time of the mission. There is a significant correspondance between the model of simulated horizontal water circulation, sea surface temperature, and surface currents observed on LANDSAT imagery. Close approximations were also observed between the simulation of vertical water movement (upwelling) and the oceanographic measurements taken along a series of points of the prevailing currents.

Assimilation of Global Radar Backscatter and Radiometer Brightness Temperature Observations to Improve Soil Moisture and Land Evaporation Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Miralles, D. G.

2017-01-01

Active radar backscatter (s?) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to improve its simulations of soil moisture and land evaporation. To enable s? and TB assimilation, GLEAM is coupled to the Water Cloud Model and the L-band Microwave Emission from the Biosphere (L-MEB) model. The innovations, i.e. differences between observations and simulations, are mapped onto the model soil moisture states through an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The validation of surface (0-10 cm) soil moisture simulations over the period 2010-2014 against in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) shows that assimilating s? or TB alone improves the average correlation of seasonal anomalies (Ran) from 0.514 to 0.547 and 0.548, respectively. The joint assimilation further improves Ran to 0.559. Associated enhancements in daily evaporative flux simulations by GLEAM are validated based on measurements from 22 FLUXNET stations. Again, the singular assimilation improves Ran from 0.502 to 0.536 and 0.533, respectively for s? and TB, whereas the best performance is observed for the joint assimilation (Ran = 0.546). These results demonstrate the complementary value of assimilating radar backscatter observations together with brightness temperatures for improving estimates of hydrological variables, as their joint assimilation outperforms the assimilation of each observation type separately.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Observing and Simulating Diapycnal Mixing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, K.; Klymak, J. M.; Hu, X.; Myers, P. G.; Williams, W. J.; Melling, H.

2016-12-01

High-spatial-resolution observations in the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago are analysed in conjunction with process-oriented modelling to estimate the flow pathways among the constricted waterways, understand the nature of the hydraulic control(s), and assess the influence of smaller scale (metres to kilometres) phenomena such as internal waves and topographically induced eddies. The observations repeatedly display isopycnal displacements of 50 m as dense water plunges over a sill. Depth-averaged turbulent dissipation rates near the sill estimated from these observations are typically 10-6-10-5 W kg-1, a range that is three orders of magnitude larger than that for the open ocean. These and other estimates are compared against a 1/12° basin-scale model from which we estimate diapycnal mixing rates using a volume-integrated advection-diffusion equation. Much of the mixing in this simulation is concentrated near constrictions within Barrow Strait and Queens Channel, the latter being our observational site. This suggests the model is capable of capturing topographically induced mixing. However, such mixing is expected to be enhanced in the presence of tides, a process not included in our basin scale simulation or other similar models. Quantifying this enhancement is another objective of our process-oriented modelling.

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

A Numerical Model Study of Nocturnal Drainage Flows with Strong Wind and Temperature Gradients.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, T.; Bunker, S.

1989-07-01

A second-moment turbulence-closure model described in Yamada and Bunker is used to simulate nocturnal drainage flows observed during the 1984 ASCOT field expedition in Brush Creek, Colorado. In order to simulate the observed strong wind directional shear and temperature gradients, two modifications are added to the model. The strong wind directional shear was maintained by introducing a `nudging' term in the equation of motion to guide the modeled winds in the layers above the ridge top toward the observed wind direction. The second modification was accomplished by reformulating the conservation equation for the potential temperature in such a way that only the deviation from the horizontally averaged value was prognostically computed.The vegetation distribution used in this study is undoubtedly crude. Nevertheless, the present simulation suggests that tall tree canopy can play an important role in producing inhomogeneous wind distribution, particularly in the levels below the canopy top.

Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, Christa; McGlynn, Brian; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-07-01

Distributed catchment models are widely used tools for predicting hydrologic behavior. While distributed models require many parameters to describe a system, they are expected to simulate behavior that is more consistent with observed processes. However, obtaining a single set of acceptable parameters can be problematic, as parameter equifinality often results in several behavioral sets that fit observations (typically streamflow). In this study, we investigate the extent to which equifinality impacts a typical distributed modeling application. We outline a hierarchical approach to reduce the number of behavioral sets based on regional, observation-driven, and expert-knowledge-based constraints. For our application, we explore how each of these constraint classes reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets and altered distributions of spatiotemporal simulations, simulating a well-studied headwater catchment, Stringer Creek, Montana, using the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM). As a demonstrative exercise, we investigated model performance across 10 000 parameter sets. Constraints on regional signatures, the hydrograph, and two internal measurements of snow water equivalent time series reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets but still left a small number with similar goodness of fit. This subset was ultimately further reduced by incorporating pattern expectations of groundwater table depth across the catchment. Our results suggest that utilizing a hierarchical approach based on regional datasets, observations, and expert knowledge to identify behavioral parameter sets can reduce equifinality and bolster more careful application and simulation of spatiotemporal processes via distributed modeling at the catchment scale.

Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

2018-01-01

Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fix, Miranda J.; Cooley, Daniel; Hodzic, Alma; Gilleland, Eric; Russell, Brook T.; Porter, William C.; Pfister, Gabriele G.

2018-03-01

We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996-2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, Bernd; Ball, William; Bender, Stefan; Gardini, Angela; Harvey, V. Lynn; Lambert, Alyn; López-Puertas, Manuel; Marsh, Daniel R.; Meraner, Katharina; Nieder, Holger; Päivärinta, Sanna-Mari; Pérot, Kristell; Randall, Cora E.; Reddmann, Thomas; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Hauke; Seppälä, Annika; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Tsvetkova, Natalia D.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Walker, Kaley A.; Yushkov, Vladimir

2017-03-01

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.

How can mountaintop CO 2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

DOE PAGES

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; ...

2017-05-03

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO 2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO 2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield informationmore » about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO 2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO 2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO 2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO 2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ~4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO 2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In conclusion, in the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO 2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.« less

How can mountaintop CO2 observations be used to constrain regional carbon fluxes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, John C.; Mallia, Derek V.; Wu, Dien; Stephens, Britton B.

2017-05-01

Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found - i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield information about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ˜ 4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence.

High-Performance Computer Modeling of the Cosmos-Iridium Collision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S; Cook, K; Fasenfest, B

2009-08-28

This paper describes the application of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness (SSA) enterprise, to the recent Cosmos-Iridium collision. This framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel, high-performance computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We will describe the application of this framework to the recent collision of the Cosmos and Iridium satellites, including (1) detailed hydrodynamic modeling of the satellitemore » collision and resulting debris generation, (2) orbital propagation of the simulated debris and analysis of the increased risk to other satellites (3) calculation of the radar and optical signatures of the simulated debris and modeling of debris detection with space surveillance radar and optical systems (4) determination of simulated debris orbits from modeled space surveillance observations and analysis of the resulting orbital accuracy, (5) comparison of these modeling and simulation results with Space Surveillance Network observations. We will also discuss the use of this integrated modeling and simulation framework to analyze the risks and consequences of future satellite collisions and to assess strategies for mitigating or avoiding future incidents, including the addition of new sensor systems, used in conjunction with the Space Surveillance Network, for improving space situational awareness.« less

The Critical Role of the Routing Scheme in Simulating Peak River Discharge in Global Hydrological Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Fang; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, Jacob; Ostberg, Sebastian; Willner, Sven; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gosling, Simon N.; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Portmann, Felix T.;

Validation of a Ground-Water Flow Model of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer Using Water-Level and Water-Use Data for 1998-2005 and Evaluation of Water-Use Scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillip, Jonathan A.; Czarnecki, John B.

2009-01-01

A ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas, developed in 2003 to simulate the period of 1918-98, was validated with the addition of water-level and water-use data that extended the observation period to 2005. The original model (2003) was calibrated using water-level observations from 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998, and water-use data through 1997. The original model subsequently was used to simulate water levels from 1999 to 2049 and showed that simulation of continued pumping at the 1997 water-use rate could not be sustained indefinitely without causing dry cells in the model. After publication of the original ground-water flow model, a total of 3,616 water-level observations from 698 locations measured during the period of 1998 to 2005 became available. Additionally, water-use data were compiled and used for the same period, totaling 290,005 discrete water-use values from 43,440 wells with as many as 39,169 wells pumping in any one year. Total pumping (which is primarily agricultural) for this 8-year period was about 2.3 trillion cubic feet of water and was distributed over approximately 10,340 square miles within the model area. An updated version of the original ground-water flow model was used to simulate the period of 1998-2005 with the additional water-level and water-use data. Water-level observations for 1998-2005 ranged from 74 to 293 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 across the model area. The maximum water-level residual (observed minus simulated water-level values) for the 3,616 water-level observations was 52 feet, the minimum water-level residual was 60 feet, the average annual root mean squared error was 8.2 feet, and the annual average absolute residual was 6.0 feet. A correlation coefficient value of 0.96 was calculated for the line of best fit for observed to simulated water levels for the combined 1998-2005 dataset, indicating a good fit to the data and an acceptable validation of the model. After the validation process was completed, additional ground-water model simulations were run to evaluate the response of the aquifer with the 2005 water-use rate applied through 2049 (scenario 1) and the 2005 water-use rate increased 2 percent annually until 2049 (scenario 2). Scenario 1 resulted in 779 dry cells (779 square miles) by 2049 and scenario 2 resulted in 2,910 dry cells (2,910 square miles) by 2049. In both scenarios, the dry cells are concentrated in the Grand Prairie area and Cache River area west of Crowleys Ridge. However, scenario 2 resulted in dry cells to the east of Crowleys Ridge as well. A simulation applying the 1997 water-use rate contained in the original ground-water flow model resulted in 401 dry cells (401 square miles) in the Grand Prairie and Cache River areas.

Reduced atomic pair-interaction design (RAPID) model for simulations of proteins.

PubMed

Ni, Boris; Baumketner, Andrij

2013-02-14

Increasingly, theoretical studies of proteins focus on large systems. This trend demands the development of computational models that are fast, to overcome the growing complexity, and accurate, to capture the physically relevant features. To address this demand, we introduce a protein model that uses all-atom architecture to ensure the highest level of chemical detail while employing effective pair potentials to represent the effect of solvent to achieve the maximum speed. The effective potentials are derived for amino acid residues based on the condition that the solvent-free model matches the relevant pair-distribution functions observed in explicit solvent simulations. As a test, the model is applied to alanine polypeptides. For the chain with 10 amino acid residues, the model is found to reproduce properly the native state and its population. Small discrepancies are observed for other folding properties and can be attributed to the approximations inherent in the model. The transferability of the generated effective potentials is investigated in simulations of a longer peptide with 25 residues. A minimal set of potentials is identified that leads to qualitatively correct results in comparison with the explicit solvent simulations. Further tests, conducted for multiple peptide chains, show that the transferable model correctly reproduces the experimentally observed tendency of polyalanines to aggregate into β-sheets more strongly with the growing length of the peptide chain. Taken together, the reported results suggest that the proposed model could be used to succesfully simulate folding and aggregation of small peptides in atomic detail. Further tests are needed to assess the strengths and limitations of the model more thoroughly.

Prediction of pest pressure on corn root nodes: the POPP-Corn model.

PubMed

Agatz, Annika; Ashauer, Roman; Sweeney, Paul; Brown, Colin D

2017-01-01

A model for the corn rootworm Diabrotica spp. combined with a temporally explicit model for development of corn roots across the soil profile was developed to link pest ecology, root damage and yield loss. Development of the model focused on simulating root damage from rootworm feeding in accordance with observations in the field to allow the virtual testing of efficacy from management interventions in the future. We present the model and demonstrate its applicability for simulating root damage by comparison between observed and simulated pest development and root damage (assessed according to the node injury scale from 0 to 3) for field studies from the literature conducted in Urbana, Illinois (US), between 1991 and 2014. The model simulated the first appearance of larvae and adults to within a week of that observed in 88 and 71 % of all years, respectively, and in all cases to within 2 weeks of the first sightings recorded for central Illinois. Furthermore, in 73 % of all years simulated root damage differed by <0.5 node injury scale points compared to the observations made in the field between 2005 and 2014 even though accurate information for initial pest pressure (i.e. number of eggs in the soil) was not measured at the sites or available from nearby locations. This is, to our knowledge, the first time that pest ecology, root damage and yield loss have been successfully interlinked to produce a virtual field. There are potential applications in investigating efficacy of different pest control measures and strategies.

Supporting New Missions by Observing Simulation Experiments in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM: Initial Design, Challenges and Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yudin, V. A.; England, S.; Liu, H.; Solomon, S. C.; Immel, T. J.; Maute, A. I.; Burns, A. G.; Foster, B.; Wu, Q.; Goncharenko, L. P.

2013-12-01

We examine the capability of novel configurations of community models, WACCM-X and TIME-GCM, to support current and forthcoming space-borne missions to monitor the dynamics and composition of the Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere (MTI) system. In these configurations the lower atmosphere of WACCM-X is constrained by operational analyses and/or short-term forecasts provided by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) of Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA/GSFC. With the terrestrial weather of GEOS-5 and updated model physics the simulations in the MTI are capable to reproduce observed signatures of the perturbed wave dynamics and ion-neutral coupling during recent stratospheric warming events, short-term, annual and year-to-year variability of prevailing flows, planetary waves, tides, and composition. These 'terrestrial-weather' driven simulations with day-to-day variable solar and geomagnetic inputs can provide background state (first guess) and error statistics for the inverse algorithms of new NASA missions, ICON and GOLD at locations and time of observations in the MTI region. With two different viewing geometries (sun-synchronous and geostationary) of instruments, ICON and GOLD will provide complimentary global observations of temperature, winds and constituents to constrain the first-principle forecast models. This paper will discuss initial design of Observing Simulation Experiments (OSE) in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM. As recognized, OSE represent an excellent learning tool for designing and evaluating observing capabilities of novel sensors. They can guide on how to integrate/combine information from different instruments. The choice of assimilation schemes, forecast and observational errors will be discussed along with challenges and perspectives to constrain fast-varying tidal dynamics and their effects in models by combination of sun-synchronous and geostationary observations of ICON and GOLD. We will also discuss how correlative space-borne and ground-based observations can verify OSE results in the observable and non-observable regions of the MTI.

Modeling the October 2005 lahars at Panabaj (Guatemala)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C. B.; Connor, L. J.; Sheridan, M. F.; Oliva Hernández, J. P.; Richardson, J. A.

2018-01-01

An extreme rainfall event in October of 2005 triggered two deadly lahars on the flanks of Tolimán volcano (Guatemala) that caused many fatalities in the village of Panabaj. We mapped the deposits of these lahars, then developed computer simulations of the lahars using the geologic data and compared simulated area inundated by the flows to mapped area inundated. Computer simulation of the two lahars was dramatically improved after calibration with geological data. Specifically, detailed field measurements of flow inundation area, flow thickness, flow direction, and velocity estimates, collected after lahar emplacement, were used to calibrate the rheological input parameters for the models, including deposit volume, yield strength, sediment and water concentrations, and Manning roughness coefficients. Simulations of the two lahars, with volumes of 240,200 ± 55,400 and 126,000 ± 29,000 m3, using the FLO-2D computer program produced models of lahar runout within 3% of measured runouts and produced reasonable estimates of flow thickness and velocity along the lengths of the simulated flows. We compare areas inundated using the Jaccard fit, model sensitivity, and model precision metrics, all related to Bayes' theorem. These metrics show that false negatives (areas inundated by the observed lahar where not simulated) and false positives (areas not inundated by the observed lahar where inundation was simulated) are reduced using a model calibrated by rheology. The metrics offer a procedure for tuning model performance that will enhance model accuracy and make numerical models a more robust tool for natural hazard reduction.

Comparison of PARASOL Observations with Polarized Reflectances Simulated Using Different Ice Habit Mixtures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Benjamin H.; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; Riedi, Jerome; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Thieuleux, Francois; Platnick, Steven

2012-01-01

Insufficient knowledge of the habit distribution and the degree of surface roughness of ice crystals within ice clouds is a source of uncertainty in the forward light scattering and radiative transfer simulations required in downstream applications involving these clouds. The widely used MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 ice microphysical model assumes a mixture of various ice crystal shapes with smooth-facets except aggregates of columns for which a moderately rough condition is assumed. When compared with PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) polarized reflection data, simulations of polarized reflectance using smooth particles show a poor fit to the measurements, whereas very rough-faceted particles provide an improved fit to the polarized reflectance. In this study a new microphysical model based on a mixture of 9 different ice crystal habits with severely roughened facets is developed. Simulated polarized reflectance using the new ice habit distribution is calculated using a vector adding-doubling radiative transfer model, and the simulations closely agree with the polarized reflectance observed by PARASOL. The new general habit mixture is also tested using a spherical albedo differences analysis, and surface roughening is found to improve the consistency of multi-angular observations. It is suggested that an ice model incorporating an ensemble of different habits with severely roughened surfaces would potentially be an adequate choice for global ice cloud retrievals.

Interactive Visualization to Advance Earthquake Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellogg, Louise H.; Bawden, Gerald W.; Bernardin, Tony; Billen, Magali; Cowgill, Eric; Hamann, Bernd; Jadamec, Margarete; Kreylos, Oliver; Staadt, Oliver; Sumner, Dawn

2008-04-01

The geological sciences are challenged to manage and interpret increasing volumes of data as observations and simulations increase in size and complexity. For example, simulations of earthquake-related processes typically generate complex, time-varying data sets in two or more dimensions. To facilitate interpretation and analysis of these data sets, evaluate the underlying models, and to drive future calculations, we have developed methods of interactive visualization with a special focus on using immersive virtual reality (VR) environments to interact with models of Earth’s surface and interior. Virtual mapping tools allow virtual “field studies” in inaccessible regions. Interactive tools allow us to manipulate shapes in order to construct models of geological features for geodynamic models, while feature extraction tools support quantitative measurement of structures that emerge from numerical simulation or field observations, thereby enabling us to improve our interpretation of the dynamical processes that drive earthquakes. VR has traditionally been used primarily as a presentation tool, albeit with active navigation through data. Reaping the full intellectual benefits of immersive VR as a tool for scientific analysis requires building on the method’s strengths, that is, using both 3D perception and interaction with observed or simulated data. This approach also takes advantage of the specialized skills of geological scientists who are trained to interpret, the often limited, geological and geophysical data available from field observations.

Protein Folding Simulations Combining Self-Guided Langevin Dynamics and Temperature-Based Replica Exchange

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

formulations of molecular dynamics (MD) and Langevin dynamics (LD) simulations for the prediction of thermodynamic folding observables of the Trp-cage...ad hoc force term in the SGLD model. Introduction Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of small proteins provide insight into the mechanisms and... molecular dynamics (MD) and Langevin dynamics (LD) simulations for the prediction of thermodynamic folding observables of the Trp-cage mini-protein. All

Simulations of column-averaged CO2 and CH4 using the NIES TM with a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belikov, D. A.; Maksyutov, S.; Sherlock, V.; Aoki, S.; Deutscher, N. M.; Dohe, S.; Griffith, D.; Kyro, E.; Morino, I.; Nakazawa, T.; Notholt, J.; Rettinger, M.; Schneider, M.; Sussmann, R.; Toon, G. C.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.

2013-02-01

We have developed an improved version of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional chemical transport model (TM) designed for accurate tracer transport simulations in the stratosphere, using a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain-following and isentropic parts switched smoothly around the tropopause. The air-ascending rate was derived from the effective heating rate and was used to simulate vertical motion in the isentropic part of the grid (above level 350 K), which was adjusted to fit to the observed age of the air in the stratosphere. Multi-annual simulations were conducted using the NIES TM to evaluate vertical profiles and dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4. Comparisons with balloon-borne observations over Sanriku (Japan) in 2000-2007 revealed that the tracer transport simulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are performed with accuracies of ~5% for CH4 and SF6, and ~1% for CO2 compared with the observed volume-mixing ratios. The simulated column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) were evaluated against daily ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) observations measured at twelve sites of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) (Bialystok, Bremen, Darwin, Garmisch, Izaña, Lamont, Lauder, Orleans, Park Falls, Sodankylä, Tsukuba, and Wollongong) between January 2009 and January 2011. The comparison shows the model's ability to reproduce the site-dependent seasonal cycles as observed by TCCON, with correlation coefficients typically on the order 0.8-0.9 and 0.4-0.8 for XCO2 and XCH4, respectively, and mean model biases of ±0.2% and ±0.5%, excluding Sodankylä, where strong biases are found. The ability of the model to capture the tracer total column mole fractions is strongly dependent on the model's ability to reproduce seasonal variations in tracer concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We found a marked difference in the model's ability to reproduce near-surface concentrations at sites located some distance from multiple emission sources and where high emissions play a notable role in the tracer's budget. Comparisons with aircraft observations over Surgut (West Siberia), in an area with high emissions of methane from wetlands, show contrasting model performance in the PBL and in the free troposphere. Thus, the PBL is another critical region for simulating the tracer total column mole fractions.

Experiments in monthly mean simulation of the atmosphere with a coarse-mesh general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutz, R. J.; Spar, J.

1978-01-01

The Hansen atmospheric model was used to compute five monthly forecasts (October 1976 through February 1977). The comparison is based on an energetics analysis, meridional and vertical profiles, error statistics, and prognostic and observed mean maps. The monthly mean model simulations suffer from several defects. There is, in general, no skill in the simulation of the monthly mean sea-level pressure field, and only marginal skill is indicated for the 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights. The coarse-mesh model appears to generate a less satisfactory monthly mean simulation than the finer mesh GISS model.

Convective - TTU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosovic, Branko

This dataset includes large-eddy simulation (LES) output from a convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulation of observations at the SWIFT tower near Lubbock, Texas on July 4, 2012. The dataset was used to assess the LES models for simulation of canonical convective ABL. The dataset can be used for comparison with other LES and computational fluid dynamics model outputs.

LANL - Convective - TTU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosovic, Branko

This dataset includes large-eddy simulation (LES) output from a convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulation of observations at the SWIFT tower near Lubbock, Texas on July 4, 2012. The dataset was used to assess the LES models for simulation of canonical convective ABL. The dataset can be used for comparison with other LES and computational fluid dynamics model outputs.

LANL - Neutral - TTU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosovic, Branko

This dataset includes large-eddy simulation (LES) output from a neutrally stratified atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulation of observations at the SWIFT tower near Lubbock, Texas on Aug. 17, 2012. The dataset was used to assess LES models for simulation of canonical neutral ABL. The dataset can be used for comparison with other LES and computational fluid dynamics model outputs.

Observer-based monitoring of heat exchangers.

PubMed

Astorga-Zaragoza, Carlos-Manuel; Alvarado-Martínez, Víctor-Manuel; Zavala-Río, Arturo; Méndez-Ocaña, Rafael-Maxim; Guerrero-Ramírez, Gerardo-Vicente

2008-01-01

The goal of this work is to provide a method for monitoring performance degradation in counter-flow double-pipe heat exchangers. The overall heat transfer coefficient is estimated by an adaptive observer and monitored in order to infer when the heat exchanger needs preventive or corrective maintenance. A simplified mathematical model is used to synthesize the adaptive observer and a more complex model is used for simulation. The reliability of the proposed method was demonstrated via numerical simulations and laboratory experiments with a bench-scale pilot plant.

Effects of input uncertainty on cross-scale crop modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter

2014-05-01

The quality of data on climate, soils and agricultural management in the tropics is in general low or data is scarce leading to uncertainty in process-based modeling of cropping systems. Process-based crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in climate change impact studies, studies on mitigation and adaptation options or food security studies. Crop modelers are concerned about input data accuracy as this, together with an adequate representation of plant physiology processes and choice of model parameters, are the key factors for a reliable simulation. For example, assuming an error in measurements of air temperature, radiation and precipitation of ± 0.2°C, ± 2 % and ± 3 % respectively, Fodor & Kovacs (2005) estimate that this translates into an uncertainty of 5-7 % in yield and biomass simulations. In our study we seek to answer the following questions: (1) are there important uncertainties in the spatial variability of simulated crop yields on the grid-cell level displayed on maps, (2) are there important uncertainties in the temporal variability of simulated crop yields on the aggregated, national level displayed in time-series, and (3) how does the accuracy of different soil, climate and management information influence the simulated crop yields in two crop models designed for use at different spatial scales? The study will help to determine whether more detailed information improves the simulations and to advise model users on the uncertainty related to input data. We analyse the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM (Keating et al., 2003) and the global scale crop model LPJmL (Bondeau et al., 2007) with different climate information (monthly and daily) and soil conditions (global soil map and African soil map) under different agricultural management (uniform and variable sowing dates) for the low-input maize-growing areas in Burkina Faso/West Africa. We test the models' response to different levels of input data from very little to very detailed information, and compare the models' abilities to represent the spatial variability and temporal variability in crop yields. We display the uncertainty in crop yield simulations from different input data and crop models in Taylor diagrams which are a graphical summary of the similarity between simulations and observations (Taylor, 2001). The observed spatial variability can be represented well from both models (R=0.6-0.8) but APSIM predicts higher spatial variability than LPJmL due to its sensitivity to soil parameters. Simulations with the same crop model, climate and sowing dates have similar statistics and therefore similar skill to reproduce the observed spatial variability. Soil data is less important for the skill of a crop model to reproduce the observed spatial variability. However, the uncertainty in simulated spatial variability from the two crop models is larger than from input data settings and APSIM is more sensitive to input data then LPJmL. Even with a detailed, point-scale crop model and detailed input data it is difficult to capture the complexity and diversity in maize cropping systems.

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, Venkatraman

2016-04-01

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey

2017-06-01

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.