3-D velocity structure model for long-period ground motion simulation of the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagawa, T.; Petukhin, A.; Koketsu, K.; Miyake, H.; Murotani, S.; Tsurugi, M.

2010-12-01

Three dimensional velocity structure model of southwest Japan is provided to simulate long-period ground motions due to the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. The model is constructed from numerous physical explorations conducted in land and offshore areas and observational study of natural earthquakes. Any available information is involved to explain crustal structure and sedimentary structure. Figure 1 shows an example of cross section with P wave velocities. The model has been revised through numbers of simulations of small to middle earthquakes as to have good agreement with observed arrival times, amplitudes, and also waveforms including surface waves. Figure 2 shows a comparison between Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms. Low velocity layers have added on seismological basement to reproduce observed records. The thickness of the layer has been adjusted through iterative analysis. The final result is found to have good agreement with the results from other physical explorations; e.g. gravity anomaly. We are planning to make long-period (about 2 to 10 sec or longer) simulations of ground motion due to the hypothetical Nankai Earthquake with the 3-D velocity structure model. As the first step, we will simulate the observed ground motions of the latest event occurred in 1946 to check the source model and newly developed velocity structure model. This project is partly supported by Integrated Research Project for Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The ground motion data used in this study were provided by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Disaster (NIED). Figure 1 An example of cross section with P wave velocities Figure 2 Observed (dash line) and simulated (solid line) waveforms due to a small earthquake

Simulation of groundwater flow pathlines and freshwater/saltwater transition zone movement, Manhasset Neck, Nassau County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Misut, Paul; Aphale, Omkar

2014-01-01

A density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model of Manhasset Neck, Long Island, New York, was used to analyze (1) the effects of seasonal stress on the position of the freshwater/saltwater transition zone and (2) groundwater flowpaths. The following were used in the simulation: 182 transient stress periods, representing the historical record from 1920 to 2011, and 44 transient stress periods, representing future hypothetical conditions from 2011 to 2030. Simulated water-level and salinity (chloride concentration) values are compared with values from a previously developed two-stress-period (1905–1944 and 1945–2005) model. The 182-stress-period model produced salinity (chloride concentration) values that more accurately matched the observed salinity (chloride concentration) values in response to hydrologic stress than did the two-stress-period model, and salinity ranged from zero to about 3 parts per thousand (equivalent to zero to 1,660 milligrams per liter chloride). The 182-stress-period model produced improved calibration statistics of water-level measurements made throughout the study area than did the two-stress-period model, reducing the Lloyd aquifer root mean square error from 7.0 to 5.2 feet. Decreasing horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities (fixed anisotropy ratio) of the Lloyd and North Shore aquifers by 20 percent resulted in nearly doubling the simulated salinity(chloride concentration) increase at Port Washington observation well N12508. Groundwater flowpath analysis was completed for 24 production wells to delineate water source areas. The freshwater/saltwater transition zone moved toward and(or) away from wells during future hypothetical scenarios.

Simulating hydrological processes of a typical small mountainous catchment in Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y. P.; Bai, Z.; Fu, Q.; Pan, S.; Zhu, C.

2017-12-01

Water cycle of small watersheds with seasonal/permanent frozen soil and snow pack in Tibetan Plateau is seriously affected by climate change. The objective of this study is to find out how much and in what way the frozen soil and snow pack will influence the hydrology of small mountainous catchments in cold regions and how can the performance of simulation by a distributed hydrological model be improved. The Dong catchment, a small catchment located in Tibetan Plateau, is used as a case study. Two measurement stations are set up to collect basic meteorological and hydrological data for the modeling purpose. Annual and interannual variations of runoff indices are first analyzed based on historic data series. The sources of runoff in dry periods and wet periods are analyzed respectively. Then, a distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) is adopted to simulate the hydrological process of Dong catchment based on limited data set. Global sensitivity analysis is applied to help determine the important processes of the catchment. Based on sensitivity analysis results, the Epsilon-Dominance Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) is finally added into the hydrological model to calibrate the hydrological model in a multi-objective way and analyze the performance of DHSVM model. The performance of simulation is evaluated with several evaluation indices. The final results show that frozen soil and snow pack do play an important role in hydrological processes in cold mountainous region, in particular in dry periods without precipitation, while in wet periods precipitation is often the main source of runoff. The results also show that although the DHSVM hydrological model has the potential to model the hydrology well in small mountainous catchments with very limited data in Tibetan Plateau, the simulation of hydrology in dry periods is not very satisfactory due to the model's insufficiency in simulating seasonal frozen soil.

Hazard assessment of long-period ground motions for the Nankai Trough earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

2013-12-01

We evaluate a seismic hazard for long-period ground motions associated with the Nankai Trough earthquakes (M8~9) in southwest Japan. Large interplate earthquakes occurring around the Nankai Trough have caused serious damages due to strong ground motions and tsunami; most recent events were in 1944 and 1946. Such large interplate earthquake potentially causes damages to high-rise and large-scale structures due to long-period ground motions (e.g., 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake in Japan). The long-period ground motions are amplified particularly on basins. Because major cities along the Nankai Trough have developed on alluvial plains, it is therefore important to evaluate long-period ground motions as well as strong motions and tsunami for the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes. The long-period ground motions are evaluated by the finite difference method (FDM) using 'characterized source models' and the 3-D underground structure model. The 'characterized source model' refers to a source model including the source parameters necessary for reproducing the strong ground motions. The parameters are determined based on a 'recipe' for predicting strong ground motion (Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), 2009). We construct various source models (~100 scenarios) giving the various case of source parameters such as source region, asperity configuration, and hypocenter location. Each source region is determined by 'the long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough' published by ERC. The asperity configuration and hypocenter location control the rupture directivity effects. These parameters are important because our preliminary simulations are strongly affected by the rupture directivity. We apply the system called GMS (Ground Motion Simulator) for simulating the seismic wave propagation based on 3-D FDM scheme using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) to our study. The grid spacing for the shallow region is 200 m and 100 m in horizontal and vertical, respectively. The grid spacing for the deep region is three times coarser. The total number of grid points is about three billion. The 3-D underground structure model used in the FD simulation is the Japan integrated velocity structure model (ERC, 2012). Our simulation is valid for period more than two seconds due to the lowest S-wave velocity and grid spacing. However, because the characterized source model may not sufficiently support short period components, we should be interpreted the reliable period of this simulation with caution. Therefore, we consider the period more than five seconds instead of two seconds for further analysis. We evaluate the long-period ground motions using the velocity response spectra for the period range between five and 20 second. The preliminary simulation shows a large variation of response spectra at a site. This large variation implies that the ground motion is very sensitive to different scenarios. And it requires studying the large variation to understand the seismic hazard. Our further study will obtain the hazard curves for the Nankai Trough earthquake (M 8~9) by applying the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to the simulation results.

Simulation of image formation in x-ray coded aperture microscopy with polycapillary optics.

PubMed

Korecki, P; Roszczynialski, T P; Sowa, K M

2015-04-06

In x-ray coded aperture microscopy with polycapillary optics (XCAMPO), the microstructure of focusing polycapillary optics is used as a coded aperture and enables depth-resolved x-ray imaging at a resolution better than the focal spot dimensions. Improvements in the resolution and development of 3D encoding procedures require a simulation model that can predict the outcome of XCAMPO experiments. In this work we introduce a model of image formation in XCAMPO which enables calculation of XCAMPO datasets for arbitrary positions of the object relative to the focal plane as well as to incorporate optics imperfections. In the model, the exit surface of the optics is treated as a micro-structured x-ray source that illuminates a periodic object. This makes it possible to express the intensity of XCAMPO images as a convolution series and to perform simulations by means of fast Fourier transforms. For non-periodic objects, the model can be applied by enforcing artificial periodicity and setting the spatial period larger then the field-of-view. Simulations are verified by comparison with experimental data.

Understanding Resonance Graphs Using Easy Java Simulations (EJS) and Why We Use EJS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wee, Loo Kang; Lee, Tat Leong; Chew, Charles; Wong, Darren; Tan, Samuel

2015-01-01

This paper reports a computer model simulation created using Easy Java Simulation (EJS) for learners to visualize how the steady-state amplitude of a driven oscillating system varies with the frequency of the periodic driving force. The simulation shows (N = 100) identical spring-mass systems being subjected to (1) a periodic driving force of…

Sensitivity analysis of the DRAINWAT model applied to an agricultural watershed in the lower coastal plain, North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

Hyunwoo Kim; Devendra M. Amatya; Stephen W. Broome; Dean L. Hesterberg; Minha Choi

2011-01-01

The DRAINWAT, DRAINmod for WATershed model, was selected for hydrological modelling to obtain water table depths and drainage outflows at Open Grounds Farm in Carteret County, North Carolina, USA. Six simulated storm events from the study period were compared with the measured data and analysed. Simulation results from the whole study period and selected rainfall...

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

Arctic Sea Ice Simulation in the PlioMIP Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran; Chan, Wing-Le; Chandler, Mark A.; Contoux, Camille; Kamae, Youichi; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan A.;

Price of gasoline: forecasting comparisons. [Box-Jenkins, econometric, and regression methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bopp, A.E.; Neri, J.A.

Gasoline prices are simulated using three popular forecasting methodologies: A Box--Jenkins type method, an econometric method, and a regression method. One-period-ahead and 18-period-ahead comparisons are made. For the one-period-ahead method, a Box--Jenkins type time-series model simulated best, although all do well. However, for the 18-period simulation, the econometric and regression methods perform substantially better than the Box-Jenkins formulation. A rationale for and implications of these results ae discussed. 11 references.

An undergraduate laboratory activity on molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Spitznagel, Benjamin; Pritchett, Paige R; Messina, Troy C; Goadrich, Mark; Rodriguez, Juan

2016-01-01

Vision and Change [AAAS, 2011] outlines a blueprint for modernizing biology education by addressing conceptual understanding of key concepts, such as the relationship between structure and function. The document also highlights skills necessary for student success in 21st century Biology, such as the use of modeling and simulation. Here we describe a laboratory activity that allows students to investigate the dynamic nature of protein structure and function through the use of a modeling technique known as molecular dynamics (MD). The activity takes place over two lab periods that are 3 hr each. The first lab period unpacks the basic approach behind MD simulations, beginning with the kinematic equations that all bioscience students learn in an introductory physics course. During this period students are taught rudimentary programming skills in Python while guided through simple modeling exercises that lead up to the simulation of the motion of a single atom. In the second lab period students extend concepts learned in the first period to develop skills in the use of expert MD software. Here students simulate and analyze changes in protein conformation resulting from temperature change, solvation, and phosphorylation. The article will describe how these activities can be carried out using free software packages, including Abalone and VMD/NAMD. © 2016 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

Reducing EnergyPlus Run Time For Code Compliance Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athalye, Rahul A.; Gowri, Krishnan; Schultz, Robert W.

2014-09-12

Integration of the EnergyPlus ™ simulation engine into performance-based code compliance software raises a concern about simulation run time, which impacts timely feedback of compliance results to the user. EnergyPlus annual simulations for proposed and code baseline building models, and mechanical equipment sizing result in simulation run times beyond acceptable limits. This paper presents a study that compares the results of a shortened simulation time period using 4 weeks of hourly weather data (one per quarter), to an annual simulation using full 52 weeks of hourly weather data. Three representative building types based on DOE Prototype Building Models and threemore » climate zones were used for determining the validity of using a shortened simulation run period. Further sensitivity analysis and run time comparisons were made to evaluate the robustness and run time savings of using this approach. The results of this analysis show that the shortened simulation run period provides compliance index calculations within 1% of those predicted using annual simulation results, and typically saves about 75% of simulation run time.« less

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Non-isothermal processes during the drying of bare soil: Model Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleep, B.; Talebi, A.; O'Carrol, D. M.

2017-12-01

Several coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transfer models have been developed either to study non-isothermal processes in the subsurface immediately below the ground surface, or to predict the evaporative flux from the ground surface. Equilibrium phase change between water and gas phases is typically assumed in these models. Recently, a few studies have questioned this assumption and proposed a coupled model considering kinetic phase change. However, none of these models were validated against real field data. In this study, a non-isothermal coupled model incorporating kinetic phase change was developed and examined against the measured data from a green roof test module. The model also incorporated a new surface boundary condition for water vapor transport at the ground surface. The measured field data included soil moisture content and temperature at different depths up to the depth of 15 cm below the ground surface. Lysimeter data were collected to determine the evaporation rates. Short and long wave radiation, wind velocity, air ambient temperature and relative humidity were measured and used as model input. Field data were collected for a period of three months during the warm seasons in south eastern Canada. The model was calibrated using one drying period and then several other drying periods were simulated. In general, the model underestimated the evaporation rates in the early stage of the drying period, however, the cumulative evaporation was in good agreement with the field data. The model predicted the trends in temperature and moisture content at the different depths in the green roof module. The simulated temperature was lower than the measured temperature for most of the simulation time with the maximum difference of 5 ° C. The simulated moisture content changes had the same temporal trend as the lysimeter data for the events simulated.

Recent Advances in the Theory and Simulation of Model Colloidal Microphase Formers.

PubMed

Zhuang, Yuan; Charbonneau, Patrick

2016-08-18

This mini-review synthesizes our understanding of the equilibrium behavior of particle-based models with short-range attractive and long-range repulsive (SALR) interactions. These models, which can form stable periodic microphases, aim to reproduce the essence of colloidal suspensions with competing interparticle interactions. Ordered structures, however, have yet to be obtained in experiments. In order to better understand the hurdles to periodic microphase assembly, marked theoretical and simulation advances have been made over the past few years. Here, we present recent progress in the study of microphases in models with SALR interactions using liquid-state theory and density-functional theory as well as numerical simulations. Combining these various approaches provides a description of periodic microphases, and gives insights into the rich phenomenology of the surrounding disordered regime. Ongoing research directions in the thermodynamics of models with SALR interactions are also presented.

Two mechanisms of rephasal of circadian rhythms in response to a 180 deg phase shift /simulated 12-hr time zone change/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deroshia, C. W.; Winget, C. M.; Bond, G. H.

1976-01-01

A model developed by Wever (1966) is considered. The model describes the behavior of circadian rhythms in response to photoperiod phase shifts simulating time zone changes, as a function of endogenous periodicity, light intensity, and direction of phase shift. A description is given of an investigation conducted to test the model upon the deep body temperature rhythm in unrestrained subhuman primates. An evaluation is conducted regarding the applicability of the model in predicting the type and duration of desynchronization induced by simulated time zone changes as a function of endogenous periodicity.

Computer simulation of fibrillation threshold measurements and electrophysiologic testing procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grumbach, M. P.; Saxberg, B. E.; Cohen, R. J.

1987-01-01

A finite element model of cardiac conduction was used to simulate two experimental protocols: 1) fibrillation threshold measurements and 2) clinical electrophysiologic (EP) testing procedures. The model consisted of a cylindrical lattice whose properties were determined by four parameters: element length, conduction velocity, mean refractory period, and standard deviation of refractory periods. Different stimulation patterns were applied to the lattice under a given set of lattice parameter values and the response of the model was observed through a simulated electrocardiogram. The studies confirm that the model can account for observations made in experimental fibrillation threshold measurements and in clinical EP testing protocols.

LAMMPS Project Report for the Trinity KNL Open Science Period.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Stan Gerald; Thompson, Aidan P.; Wood, Mitchell

LAMMPS is a classical molecular dynamics code (lammps.sandia.gov) used to model materials science problems at Sandia National Laboratories and around the world. LAMMPS was one of three Sandia codes selected to participate in the Trinity KNL (TR2) Open Science period. During this period, three different problems of interest were investigated using LAMMPS. The first was benchmarking KNL performance using different force field models. The second was simulating void collapse in shocked HNS energetic material using an all-atom model. The third was simulating shock propagation through poly-crystalline RDX energetic material using a coarse-grain model, the results of which were used inmore » an ACM Gordon Bell Prize submission. This report describes the results of these simulations, lessons learned, and some hardware issues found on Trinity KNL as part of this work.« less

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

Effects of Simulated Land-Use Changes on Water Quality of Lake Maumelle, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; Green, W. Reed; De Lanois, Jeanne L.

2011-01-01

Lake Maumelle is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock and North Little Rock metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more frequent, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two models were developed to partially address these concerns. A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model was developed using input data collected from October 2004 through 2008. A CE-QUAL-W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water quality using the simulated output from the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model from January 2005 through 2008. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. Continuous streamflow data, discrete sediment concentration data, and other discrete water-quality data were used to calibrate the Lake Maumelle Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model. The CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data and reservoir pool altitude collected during January 2005 through December 2008 at three lake stations. In general, the overall simulation for the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and CE-UAL-W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. In general, simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Williams Junction (with differences-simulated minus measured value-generally ranging from -14 to 19 mg/L, and percent difference-relative to the measured value-ranging from -87 to 642 percent) and Wye (differences generally ranging from -2 to 14 mg/L, -62 to 251 percent); however, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model generally does not match the suspended-sediment concentrations for all stations during periods of stormflow (streamflow substantially influenced by runoff). Generally, this is also the case for fecal coliform bacteria numbers and total organic carbon and nutrient concentrations. In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest water temperatures (for temperature) or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations (for dissolved oxygen). For the CE-QUAL-W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured distributions even for complex temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and ammonia concentrations compared well with generally low measured values.

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS): Documentation of a Groundwater-Flow Model Constructed to Assess Water Availability in the Mississippi Embayment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Brian R.; Hart, Rheannon M.

2009-01-01

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) was conducted with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. This report documents the construction and calibration of a finite-difference groundwater model for use as a tool to quantify groundwater availability within the Mississippi embayment. To approximate the differential equation, the MERAS model was constructed with the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference code, MODFLOW-2005; the preconditioned conjugate gradient solver within MODFLOW-2005 was used for the numerical solution technique. The model area boundary is approximately 78,000 square miles and includes eight States with approximately 6,900 miles of simulated streams, 70,000 well locations, and 10 primary hydrogeologic units. The finite-difference grid consists of 414 rows, 397 columns, and 13 layers. Each model cell is 1 square mile with varying thickness by cell and by layer. The simulation period extends from January 1, 1870, to April 1, 2007, for a total of 137 years and 69 stress periods. The first stress period is simulated as steady state to represent predevelopment conditions. Areal recharge is applied throughout the MERAS model area using the MODFLOW-2005 Recharge Package. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells are simulated using the Multi-Node Well Package. There are 43 streams simulated by the MERAS model. Each stream or river in the model area was simulated using the Streamflow-Routing Package. The perimeter of the model area and the base of the flow system are represented as no-flow boundaries. The downgradient limit of each model layer is a no-flow boundary, which approximates the extent of water with less than 10,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The MERAS model was calibrated by making manual changes to parameter values and examining residuals for hydraulic heads and streamflow. Additional calibration was achieved through alternate use of UCODE-2005 and PEST. Simulated heads were compared to 55,786 hydraulic-head measurements from 3,245 wells in the MERAS model area. Values of root mean square error between simulated and observed hydraulic heads of all observations ranged from 8.33 feet in 1919 to 47.65 feet in 1951, though only six root mean square error values are greater than 40 feet for the entire simulation period. Simulated streamflow generally is lower than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow less than 1,000 cubic feet per second, and greater than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow more than 1,000 cubic feet per second. Simulated streamflow is underpredicted for 18 observations and overpredicted for 10 observations in the model. These differences in streamflow illustrate the large uncertainty in model inputs such as predevelopment recharge, overland flow, pumpage (from stream and aquifer), precipitation, and observation weights. The groundwater-flow budget indicates changes in flow into (inflows) and out of (outflows) the model area during the pregroundwater-irrigation period (pre-1870) to 2007. Total flow (sum of inflows or outflows) through the model ranged from about 600 million gallons per day prior to development to 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the simulation. The pumpage from wells represents the largest outflow components with a net rate of 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the model simulation in 2006. Groundwater outflows are offset primarily by inflow from aquifer storage and recharge.

Ergodicity and model quality in template-restrained canonical and temperature/Hamiltonian replica exchange coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of proteins.

PubMed

Karczyńska, Agnieszka S; Czaplewski, Cezary; Krupa, Paweł; Mozolewska, Magdalena A; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Jooyoung; Liwo, Adam

2017-12-05

Molecular simulations restrained to single or multiple templates are commonly used in protein-structure modeling. However, the restraints introduce additional barriers, thus impairing the ergodicity of simulations, which can affect the quality of the resulting models. In this work, the effect of restraint types and simulation schemes on ergodicity and model quality was investigated by performing template-restrained canonical molecular dynamics (MD), multiplexed replica-exchange molecular dynamics, and Hamiltonian replica exchange molecular dynamics (HREMD) simulations with the coarse-grained UNRES force field on nine selected proteins, with pseudo-harmonic log-Gaussian (unbounded) or Lorentzian (bounded) restraint functions. The best ergodicity was exhibited by HREMD. It has been found that non-ergodicity does not affect model quality if good templates are used to generate restraints. However, when poor-quality restraints not covering the entire protein are used, the improved ergodicity of HREMD can lead to significantly improved protein models. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Effect on Stratospheric H2O, CH4, and Age of Air with an Interactive Two-Dimensional Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-11-22

November 2002. [1] A zonally averaged photochemical–dynamical model of the middle atmosphere is used to simulate the quasi-biennial oscillation ( QBO ) and... QBO period. Comparable changes in prescribed tropical heating have a smaller effect on the QBO period. The response of tropical upwelling, and QBO ...wave forcing is smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere, increased forcing produces stronger equatorial upwelling and a longer QBO period. In the

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR

PubMed Central

Morin, Cory W.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Barrera, Roberto; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. PMID:26275146

Apollo oxygen tank stratification analysis, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barton, J. E.; Patterson, H. W.

1972-01-01

An analysis of flight performance of the Apollo 15 cryogenic oxygen tanks was conducted with the variable grid stratification math model developed earlier in the program. Flight conditions investigated were the CMP-EVA and one passive thermal control period which exhibited heater temperature characteristics not previously observed. Heater temperatures for these periods were simulated with the math model using flight acceleration data. Simulation results (heater temperature and tank pressure) compared favorably with the Apollo 15 flight data, and it was concluded that tank performance was nominal. Math model modifications were also made to improve the simulation accuracy. The modifications included the addition of the effects of the tank wall thermal mass and an improved system flow distribution model. The modifications improved the accuracy of simulated pressure response based on comparisons with flight data.

A heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1994-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model's transfer of heat is based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. The model's transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal, and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was warmer than normal, and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days. as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibration simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data indicated little improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Combined Log Inventory and Process Simulation Models for the Planning and Control of Sawmill Operations

Treesearch

Guillermo A. Mendoza; Roger J. Meimban; Philip A. Araman; William G. Luppold

1991-01-01

A log inventory model and a real-time hardwood process simulation model were developed and combined into an integrated production planning and control system for hardwood sawmills. The log inventory model was designed to monitor and periodically update the status of the logs in the log yard. The process simulation model was designed to estimate various sawmill...

Suitability of temperature sum models to simulate the flowering period of birches on regional scale as basis for realistic predictions of the allergenic potential of atmospheric pollen loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biernath, Christian; Hauck, Julia; Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Heinlein, Florian; Priesack, Eckart

2014-05-01

Persons susceptible to allergenic pollen grains need to apply suppressive pharmacy before the occurrence of the first allergy symptoms. Patient targeted medication could be improved if forecasts of the allergenic potential of pollen (biochemical composition of the pollen grain) and the onset, duration, and end of the pollen season are precise on regional scale. In plant tissue the biochemical composition may change within hours due to the resource availability for plant growth and plant internal nutrient re-mobilization. As these processes highly depend on both, the environmental conditions and the development stage of a plant, precise simulations of the onset and duration of the flowering period are crucial to determine the allergenic potential of tissues and pollen. Here, dynamic plant models that consider the dependence of the chemical composition of tissue on the development stage of the plant embedded in process-based ecosystem models seem promising tools; however, today dynamic plant growth is widely ignored in simulations of atmospheric pollen loads. In this study we raise the question whether frequently applied temperature sum models (TSM) could precisely simulate the plant development stages in case of birches on regional scale. These TSM integrate average temperatures above a base temperature below which no further plant development is assumed. In this study, we therefore tested the ability of TSM to simulate the flowering period of birches on more than 100 sites in Bavaria, Germany over a period of three years (2010-2012). Our simulations indicate that the often applied base temperatures between 2.3°C and 3.5°C for the integration of daily or hourly average temperatures, respectively, in Europe are too high to adequately simulate the onset of birch flowering in Bavaria where a base temperature of 1°C seems more convenient. A more regional calibration of the models to sub-regions in Bavaria with comparable climatic conditions could further improve the simulation results if compared to simulations using a model that was adjusted to only one representative location in Bavaria. Our simulation results suggest that birch phenology needs to be modelled on a more regional scale to derive precise predictions of the flowering period. Some weak simulation results are suspected to be due to the high genetic diversity of birches and their high adaptive potential to a wide range of environmental conditions which indeed is a characteristic for many pioneer species. The high adaptive potential could be an explanation why authors who calibrate their models to other climatic regions observe better simulation results using higher base temperatures. However, our simulations indicate that the simulation results may be biased if the base temperatures are assumed constant for one species and transferred to larger or smaller scales, to other regions with different climatic conditions, or when applied to extrapolate birch pollen seasons to future climate conditions.

Comparison of ground motions from hybrid simulations to nga prediction equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Star, L.M.; Stewart, J.P.; Graves, R.W.

2011-01-01

We compare simulated motions for a Mw 7.8 rupture scenario on the San Andreas Fault known as the ShakeOut event, two permutations with different hypocenter locations, and a Mw 7.15 Puente Hills blind thrust scenario, to median and dispersion predictions from empirical NGA ground motion prediction equations. We find the simulated motions attenuate faster with distance than is predicted by the NGA models for periods less than about 5.0 s After removing this distance attenuation bias, the average residuals of the simulated events (i.e., event terms) are generally within the scatter of empirical event terms, although the ShakeOut simulation appears to be a high static stress drop event. The intraevent dispersion in the simulations is lower than NGA values at short periods and abruptly increases at 1.0 s due to different simulation procedures at short and long periods. The simulated motions have a depth-dependent basin response similar to the NGA models, and also show complex effects in which stronger basin response occurs when the fault rupture transmits energy into a basin at low angle, which is not predicted by the NGA models. Rupture directivity effects are found to scale with the isochrone parameter ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; ...

2015-01-09

A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar tomore » observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO 2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.« less

Computer simulation of earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1976-01-01

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Shujun; Luo, Yue; Wu, Jichun; Yan, Xuexin; Wang, Hanmei; Jiao, Xun; Teatini, Pietro

2016-05-01

Shanghai, in China, has experienced two periods of rapid land subsidence mainly caused by groundwater exploitation related to economic and population growth. The first period occurred during 1956-1965 and was characterized by an average land subsidence rate of 83 mm/yr, and the second period occurred during 1990-1998 with an average subsidence rate of 16 mm/yr. Owing to the establishment of monitoring networks for groundwater levels and land subsidence, a valuable dataset has been collected since the 1960s and used to develop regional land subsidence models applied to manage groundwater resources and mitigate land subsidence. The previous geomechanical modeling approaches to simulate land subsidence were based on one-dimensional (1D) vertical stress and deformation. In this study, a numerical model of land subsidence is developed to simulate explicitly coupled three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow and 3D aquifer-system displacements in downtown Shanghai from 30 December 1979 to 30 December 1995. The model is calibrated using piezometric, geodetic-leveling, and borehole extensometer measurements made during the 16-year simulation period. The 3D model satisfactorily reproduces the measured piezometric and deformation observations. For the first time, the capability exists to provide some preliminary estimations on the horizontal displacement field associated with the well-known land subsidence in Shanghai and for which no measurements are available. The simulated horizontal displacements peak at 11 mm, i.e. less than 10 % of the simulated maximum land subsidence, and seems too small to seriously damage infrastructure such as the subways (metro lines) in the center area of Shanghai.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 AD from documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2011-07-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assesed within the context of the climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values. Results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring, and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lesser (higher) than during the reference period. In spring and autumn it was detected an increase (decrease) in the frequency of wet (dry) seasons. Future research challenges are outlined.

Numerical simulation study on the distribution law of smoke flow velocity in horizontal tunnel fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yejiao; Tian, Zhichao; Xue, Junhua; Wang, Wencai

2018-02-01

According to the fluid similarity theory, the simulation experiment system of mining tunnel fire is established. The grid division of experimental model roadway is carried on by GAMBIT software. By setting the boundary and initial conditions of smoke flow during fire period in FLUENT software, using RNG k-Ɛ two-equation turbulence model, energy equation and SIMPLE algorithm, the steady state numerical simulation of smoke flow velocity in mining tunnel is done to obtain the distribution law of smoke flow velocity in tunnel during fire period.

Hazardous Convective Weather in the Central United States: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.

2017-12-01

Two sets of 13-year continental-scale convection-permitting simulations were performed using the 4-km-resolution WRF model. They consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during the period October 2000 - September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation for the same period based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The evaluation of the retrospective simulation indicates that the model is able to realistically reproduce the main characteristics of deep precipitating convection observed in the current climate such as the spectra of convective population and propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It is also shown that severe convection and associated MCS will increase in frequency and intensity, implying a potential increase in high impact convective weather in a future warmer climate. In this study, the warm-season hazardous convective weather (i.e., tonadoes, hails and damaging gusty wind) in the central United states is examined using these 4-km downscaling simulations. First, a model-based proxy for hazardous convective weather is derived on the basis of a set of characteristic meteorological variables such as the model composite radar reflectivity, updraft helicity, vertical wind shear, and low-level wind. Second, the developed proxy is applied to the retrospective simulation for estimate of the model hazardous weather events during the historical period. Third, the simulated hazardous weather statistics are evaluated against the NOAA severe weather reports. Lastly, the proxy is applied to the future climate simulation for the projected change of hazardous convective weather in response to global warming. Preliminary results will be reported at the 2017 AGU session "High Resolution Climate Modeling".

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, K. S.

1985-01-01

This semiannual progress report covers the period from April 1, 1985 to Sept. 30, 1985 under NASA grant NAS1-441 entitled direct solar pumped iodine laser amplifier. During this period the parametric studies of the iodine laser oscillator pumped by a Vortek simulator was carried out before the amplifier studies. The amplifier studies are postponed to the extended period following completion of the parametric studies. In addition, the kinetic modeling of a solar pumped iodine laser amplifier, and the experimental work for a solar pumped dye laser amplifier are in progress. This report contains three parts: (1) the radiation characteristics of solar simulator and the parametric characteristics of photodissociation iodine laser continuously pumped by a Vortek solar simulator; (2) kinetic modeling of a solar pumped iodine laser amplifier; and (3) the study of the dye laser amplifier pumped by a Tamarack solar simulator.

Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Green, W. Reed; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; DeLanois, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.

No correlation discerned between the periods of rise and dominance of simulated species in a model of biological evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhnle, Alan

2009-11-01

In [1], Liow et al. discern a general feature of the occurrence trajectories of biological species: the periods of rise and fall of a typical species are about as long as the period of dominance. In this work, an individual-based model of biological evolution that was developed by Rikvold and Zia in [2] is investigated, but no analogous feature is observed in the simulated species populations. Instead, the periods of rise and fall of a simulated species cannot always be sensibly defined; when it does make sense to define these quantities, they are quite short and independent of the period of dominance. [4pt] [1] Liow, L. H., Skaug, H. J., Ergon, T., Schweder, T.: Global occurence trajectories of microfossils: Is the rise and persistence of species influenced by environmental volatility? Manuscript for Paleobiology, 5 Dec 2008 [0pt] [2] Rikvold, P.A., Zia, R.K.P.: Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics. Physical Review E 68, 031913 (2003)

Simulated groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota - Revisions with data through water year 2008 and simulations of potential future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

2010-01-01

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Drought or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report documents revisions and recalibration of a previously published three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow model for this area. Data for a 30-year period (water years 1979 through 2008) were used in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of groundwater flow. In the revised model, revisions include (1) extension of the transient calibration period by 10 years, (2) the use of inverse modeling for steady-state calibration, (3) model calibration to base flow for an additional four surface-water drainage basins, (4) improved estimation of transient aquifer recharge, (5) improved delineation of vegetation types, and (6) reduced cell size near large capacity water-supply wells. In addition, potential future scenarios were simulated to assess the potential effects of drought and increased groundwater withdrawals.The model comprised two layers: the upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The model’s grid had 168 rows and 202 columns, most of which were 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide, with narrower rows and columns near large water-supply wells. Recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The average recharge rates used for the steady-state simulation were 2.91 and 1.45 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and Arikaree aquifer, respectively, for a total rate of 255.4 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Discharge from the aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams as base flow and spring flow, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates for the steady-state simulation were 171.3 ft3/s for evapotranspiration, 74.4 ft3/s for net outflow to streams and springs, and 11.6 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 84.4 feet per day (ft/d) in the Ogallala aquifer and from 0.1 to 4.3 ft/d in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 4.2x10-4 ft/d was estimated for the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.8x10-5 to 3.7 ft/d. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation.Inverse modeling techniques were used for steady-state model calibration. These methods were designed to estimate parameter values that are, statistically, the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all 383 wells was 27.3 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 93 percent of the wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for 98 percent of 44 observation wells.A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances.To simulate a potential future drought scenario, a synthetic recharge record was created, the mean of which was equal to 64 percent of the average estimated recharge rate for the 30-year calibration period. This synthetic recharge record was used to simulate the last 20 years of the calibration period under drought conditions. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the drought scenario at the end of the simulation period were as much as 39 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 30-year calibration period for the last 20 years of the calibration period. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the scenario of increased pumping at the end of the simulation period were as much as 13 feet for the Ogallala aquifer.This numerical model is suitable as a tool to help understand the flow system, to help confirm that previous estimates of aquifer properties were reasonable, and to estimate aquifer properties in areas without data. The model also is useful to help assess the effects of drought and increases in pumping by simulations of these scenarios, the results of which are not precise but may be considered when making water management decisions.

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the White Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, White Clay Creek, and Red Clay Creek. The White Clay Creek is the second largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 108 mi2. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in non point-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the three major subbasins and for the Christina River, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base- flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the White Clay Creek subbasin and at nine sites in the other subbasins.The HSPF model for the White Clay Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 17 reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.37 to 13 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the White Clay Creek Basin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and primarily calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Additional calibration was done using data from two other USGS streamflow-measurement stations with periods of record shorter than the calibration period. Daily precipitation data from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly precipitation and other meteorological data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between simulated and observed streamflow volume ranged from -0.9 to 1.8 percent for the 4-year period at the two calibration sites with 4-year records. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 89.1 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 14.4 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.9 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the two calibration sites for total volume, low-flowrecession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the hourly rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using data collected by the USGS and state agencies at three USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water-quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to five storms in 1998 at each of the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites in the White Clay Creek Basin indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. The accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of water-quality data available for the White Clay Creek Basin.Users of the White Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamflow and water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated, but the model performance is reasonable when evaluated over longer periods of time; the observed flow-duration curve for the simulation period is similar to the long-term flow-duration curve at White Clay Creek near Newark, Del., indicating that the calibration period is representative of all but highest 0.1 percent and lowest 0.1 percent of flows at that site; relative errors in streamflow and water-quality simulations are greater for smaller drainage areas than for larger areas; and calibration for water-quality was based on sparse data.

Documentation of a heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.

1991-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The transfer of heat 1s based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was wanner than normal and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days.Runoff, snowmelt, and frost depths were used as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibratlon simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data Indicated small improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Simulation of the early startup period of high-temperature heat pipes from the frozen state by a rarefied vapor self-diffusion model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Y.; Faghri, A.

1993-01-01

The heat pipe startup process is described physically and is divided into five periods for convenience of analysis. The literature survey revealed that none of the previous attempts to simulate the heat pipe startup process numerically were successful, since the rarefied vapor flow in the heat pipe was not considered. Therefore, a rarefied vapor self-diffusion model is proposed, and the early startup periods, in which the rarefied vapor flow is dominant within the heat pipe, are first simulated numerically. The numerical results show that large vapor density gradients existed along the heat pipe length, and the vapor flow reaches supersonic velocities when the density is extremely low. The numerical results are compared with the experimental data of the early startup period with good agreement.

Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

PubMed Central

Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

2016-01-01

In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well. PMID:27070631

Finite-size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egenter, E.; Lux, T.; Stauffer, D.

The microscopic market models of Kim-Markowitz and of Lux-Marchesi are simulated for varying number of investors. If this number goes to infinity, in some quantities nearly periodic oscillations occur.

Evaluation of the groundwater flow model for southern Utah and Goshen Valleys, Utah, updated to conditions through 2011, with new projections and groundwater management simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Lynette E.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Southern Utah Valley Municipal Water Association, updated an existing USGS model of southern Utah and Goshen Valleys for hydrologic and climatic conditions from 1991 to 2011 and used the model for projection and groundwater management simulations. All model files used in the transient model were updated to be compatible with MODFLOW-2005 and with the additional stress periods. The well and recharge files had the most extensive changes. Discharge to pumping wells in southern Utah and Goshen Valleys was estimated and simulated on an annual basis from 1991 to 2011. Recharge estimates for 1991 to 2011 were included in the updated model by using precipitation, streamflow, canal diversions, and irrigation groundwater withdrawals for each year. The model was evaluated to determine how well it simulates groundwater conditions during recent increased withdrawals and drought, and to determine if the model is adequate for use in future planning. In southern Utah Valley, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level fluctuation simulated by the updated model reasonably match measured water-level changes, but they do not simulate as much decline as was measured in some locations from 2000 to 2002. Both the rapid increase in groundwater withdrawals and the total groundwater withdrawals in southern Utah Valley during this period exceed the variations and magnitudes simulated during the 1949 to 1990 calibration period. It is possible that hydraulic properties may be locally incorrect or that changes, such as land use or irrigation diversions, occurred that are not simulated. In the northern part of Goshen Valley, simulated water-level changes reasonably match measured changes. Farther south, however, simulated declines are much less than measured declines. Land-use changes indicate that groundwater withdrawals in Goshen Valley are possibly greater than estimated and simulated. It is also possible that irrigation methods, amount of diversions, or other factors have changed that are not simulated or that aquifer properties are incorrectly simulated. The model can be used for projections about the effects of future groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge in southern Utah Valley, but rapid changes in withdrawals and increasing withdrawals dramatically may reduce the accuracy of the predicted water-level and groundwater-budget changes. The model should not be used for projections in Goshen Valley until additional withdrawal and discharge data are collected and the model is recalibrated if necessary. Model projections indicate large drawdowns of up to 400 feet and complete cessation of natural discharge in some areas with potential future increases in water use. Simulated managed aquifer recharge counteracts those effects. Groundwater management examples indicate that drawdown could be less, and discharge at selected springs could be greater, with optimized groundwater withdrawals and managed aquifer recharge than without optimization. Recalibration to more recent stresses and seasonal stress periods, and collection of new withdrawal, stream, land-use, and discharge data could improve the model fit to water-level changes and the accuracy of predictions.

Evaluating simulations of daily discharge from large watersheds using autoregression and an index of flashiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed models are calibrated to simulate stream discharge as accurately as possible. Modelers will often calculate model validation statistics on aggregate (often monthly) time periods, rather than the daily step at which models typically operate. This is because daily hydrologic data exhibit lar...

Simulations of the September 1987 lower thermospheric tides with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fesen, C. G.; Roble, R. G.

1991-02-01

The NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) was used to simulate incoherent scatter radar observations of the lower thermosphere tides during the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS) campaign, September 21-26, 1987. The TIGCM utilized time-varying histories of the model input fields obtained from the World Data Center for the LTCS period. The model inputs included solar flux, total hemispheric power, solar wind data from which the cross-polar-cap potential was derived, and geomagnetic Kp index. Calculations were made for the semidiurnal ion temperatures and horizontal neutral winds at locations representative of Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Sondrestrom. Tidal inputs to the TIGCM lower boundary were obtained from the middle atmosphere model of Forbes and Vial (1989). The TIGCM tidal structures are in fair general agreement with the observations. The amplitudes tended to be better simulated than the phases, and the mid- and high-latitude locations are simulated better than the low-latitude thermosphere. The model simulations were used to investigate the daily variability of the tides due to the geomagnetic activity occurring during this period.

Global Scale Periodic Responses in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G.

2017-10-01

Despite having an axisymmetric internal magnetic field, Saturn’s magnetosphere exhibits periodic modulations in a variety of properties at periods close to the planetary rotation period. While the source of the periodicity remains unidentified, it is evident from Cassini observations that much of Saturn’s magnetospheric structure and dynamics is dominated by global-scale responses to the driving source of the periodicity. We have developed a global MHD model in which a rotating field-aligned current system is introduced by imposing vortical flows in the high-latitude ionosphere in order to simulate the magnetospheric periodicities. The model has been utilized to quantitatively characterize various periodic responses in the magnetosphere, such as the displacement of the magnetopause and bow shock and flapping of the tail plasma sheet, all of which show quantitative agreement with Cassini observations. One of our model predictions is periodic release of plasmoids in the tail that occurs preferentially in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector during each rotation cycle. Here we present detailed analysis of the periodic responses seen in our simulations focusing on the properties of plasmoids predicted by the model, including their spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, and mass loss rate. We will compare these modeled parameters with published Cassini observations, and discuss their implications for interpreting in-situ measurements.

Effects of dry period length on production, cash flows and greenhouse gas emissions of the dairy herd: A dynamic stochastic simulation model

PubMed Central

van Middelaar, Corina E.; Mostert, Pim F.; van Knegsel, Ariëtte T. M.; Kemp, Bas; de Boer, Imke J. M.; Hogeveen, Henk

2017-01-01

Shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows improves metabolic health in early lactation and reduces management transitions for dairy cows. The success of implementation of these strategies depends on their impact on milk yield and farm profitability. Insight in these impacts is valuable for informed decision-making by farmers. The aim of this study was to investigate how shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows affects production and cash flows at the herd level, and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of milk, using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. The effects of dry period length on milk yield and calving interval assumed in this model were derived from actual performance of commercial dairy cows over multiple lactations. The model simulated lactations, and calving and culling events of individual cows for herds of 100 cows. Herds were simulated for 5 years with a dry period of 56 (conventional), 28 or 0 days (n = 50 herds each). Partial cash flows were computed from revenues from sold milk, calves, and culled cows, and costs from feed and rearing youngstock. Greenhouse gas emissions were computed using a life cycle approach. A dry period of 28 days reduced milk production of the herd by 3.0% in years 2 through 5, compared with a dry period of 56 days. A dry period of 0 days reduced milk production by 3.5% in years 3 through 5, after a dip in milk production of 6.9% in year 2. On average, dry periods of 28 and 0 days reduced partial cash flows by €1,249 and €1,632 per herd per year, and increased greenhouse gas emissions by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Considering the potential for enhancing cow welfare, these negative impacts of shortening or omitting the dry period seem justifiable, and they might even be offset by improved health. PMID:29077739

Effects of dry period length on production, cash flows and greenhouse gas emissions of the dairy herd: A dynamic stochastic simulation model.

PubMed

Kok, Akke; van Middelaar, Corina E; Mostert, Pim F; van Knegsel, Ariëtte T M; Kemp, Bas; de Boer, Imke J M; Hogeveen, Henk

2017-01-01

Shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows improves metabolic health in early lactation and reduces management transitions for dairy cows. The success of implementation of these strategies depends on their impact on milk yield and farm profitability. Insight in these impacts is valuable for informed decision-making by farmers. The aim of this study was to investigate how shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows affects production and cash flows at the herd level, and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of milk, using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. The effects of dry period length on milk yield and calving interval assumed in this model were derived from actual performance of commercial dairy cows over multiple lactations. The model simulated lactations, and calving and culling events of individual cows for herds of 100 cows. Herds were simulated for 5 years with a dry period of 56 (conventional), 28 or 0 days (n = 50 herds each). Partial cash flows were computed from revenues from sold milk, calves, and culled cows, and costs from feed and rearing youngstock. Greenhouse gas emissions were computed using a life cycle approach. A dry period of 28 days reduced milk production of the herd by 3.0% in years 2 through 5, compared with a dry period of 56 days. A dry period of 0 days reduced milk production by 3.5% in years 3 through 5, after a dip in milk production of 6.9% in year 2. On average, dry periods of 28 and 0 days reduced partial cash flows by €1,249 and €1,632 per herd per year, and increased greenhouse gas emissions by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Considering the potential for enhancing cow welfare, these negative impacts of shortening or omitting the dry period seem justifiable, and they might even be offset by improved health.

What can we learn from simulating Stratospheric Sudden Warming periods with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics GCM?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.

2013-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to assess the simulations of the SSW periods and provide guidance for future studies.

Climate downscaling over South America for 1971-2000: application in SMAP rainfall-runoff model for Grande River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Felipe das Neves Roque; Alves, José Luis Drummond; Cataldi, Marcio

2018-03-01

This paper aims to validate inflow simulations concerning the present-day climate at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant (AVHP—located on the Grande River Basin) based on the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model. In order to provide rainfall data to the SMAP model, the RegCM regional climate model was also used working with boundary conditions from the MIROC model. Initially, present-day climate simulation performed by RegCM model was analyzed. It was found that, in terms of rainfall, the model was able to simulate the main patterns observed over South America. A bias correction technique was also used and it was essential to reduce mistakes related to rainfall simulation. Comparison between rainfall simulations from RegCM and MIROC showed improvements when the dynamical downscaling was performed. Then, SMAP, a rainfall-runoff hydrological model, was used to simulate inflows at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant. After calibration with observed rainfall, SMAP simulations were evaluated in two different periods from the one used in calibration. During calibration, SMAP captures the inflow variability observed at AVHP. During validation periods, the hydrological model obtained better results and statistics with observed rainfall. However, in spite of some discrepancies, the use of simulated rainfall without bias correction captured the interannual flow variability. However, the use of bias removal in the simulated rainfall performed by RegCM brought significant improvements to the simulation of natural inflows performed by SMAP. Not only the curve of simulated inflow became more similar to the observed inflow, but also the statistics improved their values. Improvements were also noticed in the inflow simulation when the rainfall was provided by the regional climate model compared to the global model. In general, results obtained so far prove that there was an added value in rainfall when regional climate model was compared to global climate model and that data from regional models must be bias-corrected so as to improve their results.

Evaluating the impact of chemical boundary conditions on near surface ozone in regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, D.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Schultz, M. G.; Tegoulias, I.; Poupkou, A.; Markakis, K.; Pytharoulis, I.; Karacostas, Th.

2013-12-01

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on near surface ozone over Europe for the period 1996-2000. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by the NCEP meteorological reanalysis fields and CAMx with chemical LBCs from ECHAM5/MOZART global model. The recent past period (1996-2000) was simulated in three experiments. The first simulation was forced using time and space invariant LBCs, the second was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs fixed for the year 1996 and the third was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs with interannual variability. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions were kept identical for the three sensitivity runs.

Evaluation of NCMRWF unified model vertical cloud structure with CloudSat over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Mamgain, Ashu; Jisesh, A. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Rakhi, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Representation of rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation in the high resolution versions of NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM-REG) for the short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall event is vastly dependent on the key factors such as vertical cloud distribution, convection and convection/cloud relationship in the model. Hence it is highly relevant to evaluate the vertical structure of cloud and precipitation of the model over the monsoon environment. In this regard, we utilized the synergy of the capabilities of CloudSat data for long observational period, by conditioning it for the synoptic situation of the model simulation period. Simulations were run at 4-km grid length with the convective parameterization effectively switched off and on. Since the sample of CloudSat overpasses through the monsoon domain is small, the aforementioned methodology may qualitatively evaluate the vertical cloud structure for the model simulation period. It is envisaged that the present study will open up the possibility of further improvement in the high resolution version of NCUM in the tropics for the Indian summer monsoon associated rainfall events.

Experimental identification of a comb-shaped chaotic region in multiple parameter spaces simulated by the Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-03-01

A comb-shaped chaotic region has been simulated in multiple two-dimensional parameter spaces using the Hindmarsh—Rose (HR) neuron model in many recent studies, which can interpret almost all of the previously simulated bifurcation processes with chaos in neural firing patterns. In the present paper, a comb-shaped chaotic region in a two-dimensional parameter space was reproduced, which presented different processes of period-adding bifurcations with chaos with changing one parameter and fixed the other parameter at different levels. In the biological experiments, different period-adding bifurcation scenarios with chaos by decreasing the extra-cellular calcium concentration were observed from some neural pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular 4-aminopyridine concentration and from other pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular caesium concentration. By using the nonlinear time series analysis method, the deterministic dynamics of the experimental chaotic firings were investigated. The period-adding bifurcations with chaos observed in the experiments resembled those simulated in the comb-shaped chaotic region using the HR model. The experimental results show that period-adding bifurcations with chaos are preserved in different two-dimensional parameter spaces, which provides evidence of the existence of the comb-shaped chaotic region and a demonstration of the simulation results in different two-dimensional parameter spaces in the HR neuron model. The results also present relationships between different firing patterns in two-dimensional parameter spaces.

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2017-10-01

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

Hydrologic modeling of two glaciated watersheds in Northeast Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srinivasan, M.S.; Hamlett, J.M.; Day, R.L.; Sams, J.I.; Petersen, G.W.

1998-01-01

A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 x 106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 x 106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36??106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82??106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

PubMed Central

Pakhotin, I P; Drozdov, A Y; Shprits, Y Y; Boynton, R J; Subbotin, D A; Balikhin, M A

2014-01-01

This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed. PMID:26167432

Simulating CH4 and N2O emissions from direct-seeded rice systems using the DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, M.; Li, C.; Lee, J.; Six, J.; Van Kessel, C.; Linquist, B.

2015-12-01

Process-based modeling of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice fields is a practical tool for conducting greenhouse gas inventories and estimating mitigation potentials of alternative practices at the scales of management and policy-making. However, few studies have evaluated site-level model performance in side-by-side field trials of various management practices during both the growing season and fallow periods. We empirically evaluated the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model for estimating CH4 and N2O fluxes in California rice systems under varying management (N fertilizer application rate, type of seeding system, fallow period straw and water management), soil environments, and weather conditions. Five and nine site-year combinations were used for calibration and validation, respectively. The model was parameterized for two cultivars, M206 and Koshihikari, and able to simulate 30% and 78% of the measured variation in yields, respectively. A major strength of DNDC was in estimating general site-level seasonal CH4 emissions (R2 = 0.85). However, a major limitation was in simulating finer resolution of differences in CH4 emissions (or lack thereof) among side-by-side management treatments (range of 0.2-465% relative absolute deviation). Additionally, DNDC did not satisfactorily simulate fallow period CH4 emissions, or seasonal and fallow period N2O emissions across all sites with the exception of a few cases. Specifically, simulated CH4 emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rates, but lacked sensitivity to the type of seeding system and prior fallow period straw management. Additionally, N2O emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rates and field drainage. Sensitivity analysis showed that CH4 emissions were highly sensitive to changes in the root to total plant biomass ratio. Overall, uncertainty in model predictions was attributed to uncertainty in both the input parameters due to in-field spatiotemporal variability of soil properties, and in the model structure (e.g., genotype by environment interactions, clay effects, and simulation routines for field drainage, and diffusion and ebullition of gasses). These findings have implications for model-directed field research that could improve model uncertainty for application at larger spatial scales.

Internal protein motions in molecular-dynamics simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering.

PubMed

Wall, Michael E

2018-03-01

Molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering provide a means of obtaining experimentally validated models of protein conformational ensembles. This paper shows that compared with a single periodic unit-cell model, the accuracy of simulating diffuse scattering is increased when the crystal is modeled as a periodic supercell consisting of a 2 × 2 × 2 layout of eight unit cells. The MD simulations capture the general dependence of correlations on the separation of atoms. There is substantial agreement between the simulated Bragg reflections and the crystal structure; there are local deviations, however, indicating both the limitation of using a single structure to model disordered regions of the protein and local deviations of the average structure away from the crystal structure. Although it was anticipated that a simulation of longer duration might be required to achieve maximal agreement of the diffuse scattering calculation with the data using the supercell model, only a microsecond is required, the same as for the unit cell. Rigid protein motions only account for a minority fraction of the variation in atom positions from the simulation. The results indicate that protein crystal dynamics may be dominated by internal motions rather than packing interactions, and that MD simulations can be combined with Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering to model the protein conformational ensemble.

Internal protein motions in molecular-dynamics simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wall, Michael E.

Molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering provide a means of obtaining experimentally validated models of protein conformational ensembles. This paper shows that compared with a single periodic unit-cell model, the accuracy of simulating diffuse scattering is increased when the crystal is modeled as a periodic supercell consisting of a 2 × 2 × 2 layout of eight unit cells. The MD simulations capture the general dependence of correlations on the separation of atoms. There is substantial agreement between the simulated Bragg reflections and the crystal structure; there are local deviations, however, indicating both the limitation of using a single structuremore » to model disordered regions of the protein and local deviations of the average structure away from the crystal structure. Although it was anticipated that a simulation of longer duration might be required to achieve maximal agreement of the diffuse scattering calculation with the data using the supercell model, only a microsecond is required, the same as for the unit cell. Rigid protein motions only account for a minority fraction of the variation in atom positions from the simulation. The results indicate that protein crystal dynamics may be dominated by internal motions rather than packing interactions, and that MD simulations can be combined with Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering to model the protein conformational ensemble.« less

Internal protein motions in molecular-dynamics simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering

DOE PAGES

Wall, Michael E.

2018-01-25

Molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations of Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering provide a means of obtaining experimentally validated models of protein conformational ensembles. This paper shows that compared with a single periodic unit-cell model, the accuracy of simulating diffuse scattering is increased when the crystal is modeled as a periodic supercell consisting of a 2 × 2 × 2 layout of eight unit cells. The MD simulations capture the general dependence of correlations on the separation of atoms. There is substantial agreement between the simulated Bragg reflections and the crystal structure; there are local deviations, however, indicating both the limitation of using a single structuremore » to model disordered regions of the protein and local deviations of the average structure away from the crystal structure. Although it was anticipated that a simulation of longer duration might be required to achieve maximal agreement of the diffuse scattering calculation with the data using the supercell model, only a microsecond is required, the same as for the unit cell. Rigid protein motions only account for a minority fraction of the variation in atom positions from the simulation. The results indicate that protein crystal dynamics may be dominated by internal motions rather than packing interactions, and that MD simulations can be combined with Bragg and diffuse X-ray scattering to model the protein conformational ensemble.« less

Effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and time scale on simulated ground-water exchange with Lake Starr, a seepage lake in central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swancar, Amy; Lee, Terrie Mackin

2003-01-01

Lake Starr and other lakes in the mantled karst terrain of Florida's Central Lake District are surrounded by a conductive surficial aquifer system that receives highly variable recharge from rainfall. In addition, downward leakage from these lakes varies as heads in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer change seasonally and with pumpage. A saturated three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and model time scale on ground-water exchange with Lake Starr. The lake was simulated as an active part of the model using high hydraulic conductivity cells. Simulated ground-water flow was compared to net ground-water flow estimated from a rigorously derived water budget for the 2-year period August 1996-July 1998. Calibrating saturated ground-water flow models with monthly stress periods to a monthly lake water budget will result in underpredicting gross inflow to, and leakage from, ridge lakes in Florida. Underprediction of ground-water inflow occurs because recharge stresses and ground-water flow responses during rainy periods are averaged over too long a time period using monthly stress periods. When inflow is underestimated during calibration, leakage also is underestimated because inflow and leakage are correlated if lake stage is maintained over the long term. Underpredicted leakage reduces the implied effect of ground-water withdrawals from the Upper Floridan aquifer on the lake. Calibrating the weekly simulation required accounting for transient responses in the water table near the lake that generated the greater range of net ground-water flow values seen in the weekly water budget. Calibrating to the weekly lake water budget also required increasing the value of annual recharge in the nearshore region well above the initial estimate of 35 percent of the rainfall, and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the deposits around and beneath the lake. To simulate the total ground-water inflow to lakes, saturated-flow models of lake basins need to account for the potential effects of rapid and efficient recharge in the surficial aquifer system closest to the lake. In this part of the basin, the ability to accurately estimate recharge is crucial because the water table is shallowest and the response time between rainfall and recharge is shortest. Use of the one-dimensional LEACHM model to simulate the effects of the unsaturated zone on the timing and magnitude of recharge in the nearshore improved the simulation of peak values of ground-water inflow to Lake Starr. Results of weekly simulations suggest that weekly recharge can approach the majority of weekly rainfall on the nearshore part of the lake basin. However, even though a weekly simulation with higher recharge in the nearshore was able to reproduce the extremes of ground-water exchange with the lake more accurately, it was not consistently better at predicting net ground-water flow within the water budget error than a simulation with lower recharge. The more subtle effects of rainfall and recharge on ground-water inflow to the lake were more difficult to simulate. The use of variably saturated flow modeling, with time scales that are shorter than weekly and finer spatial discretization, is probably necessary to understand these processes. The basin-wide model of Lake Starr had difficulty simulating the full spectrum of ground-water inflows observed in the water budget because of insufficient information about recharge to ground water, and because of practical limits on spatial and temporal discretization in a model at this scale. In contrast, the saturated flow model appeared to successfully simulate the effects of heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer on water levels and ground-water exchange with the lake at both weekly and monthly stress periods. Most of the variability in lake leakage can be explained by the average vertical head difference between the lake and a re

Existence of periodic solutions in a model of respiratory syncytial virus RSV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas, Abraham J.; González, Gilberto; Jódar, Lucas

2008-08-01

In this paper we study the existence of a positive periodic solutions for nested models of respiratory syncytial virus RSV, by using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory. Conditions for the existence of periodic solutions in the model are given. Numerical simulations related to the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Madrid and Rio Janeiro are included.

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Performance of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for mapping gross primary productivity against remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data.

PubMed

Zan, Mei; Zhou, Yanlian; Ju, Weimin; Zhang, Yongguang; Zhang, Leiming; Liu, Yibo

2018-02-01

Estimating terrestrial gross primary production is an important task when studying the carbon cycle. In this study, the ability of a two-leaf light use efficiency model to simulate regional gross primary production in China was validated using satellite Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument - 2 sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data. The two-leaf light use efficiency model was used to estimate daily gross primary production in China's terrestrial ecosystems with 500-m resolution for the period from 2007 to 2014. Gross primary production simulated with the two-leaf light use efficiency model was resampled to a spatial resolution of 0.5° and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. During the study period, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model exhibited similar spatial and temporal patterns in China. The correlation coefficient between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and monthly gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was significant (p<0.05, n=96) in 88.9% of vegetated areas in China (average value 0.78) and varied among vegetation types. The interannual variations in monthly sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model were similar in spring and autumn in most vegetated regions, but dissimilar in winter and summer. The spatial variability of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was similar in spring, summer, and autumn. The proportion of spatial variations of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and annual gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model explained by ranged from 0.76 (2011) to 0.80 (2013) during the study period. Overall, the two-leaf light use efficiency model was capable of capturing spatial and temporal variations in gross primary production in China. However, the model needs further improvement to better simulate gross primary production in summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, Venkatraman

2016-04-01

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

2017-12-01

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River.The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume.In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas.The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Roselle, Shawn J.; Bash, Jesse O.

2017-07-01

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assumed that commonly-used spin-up periods are necessarily sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions on model results to an acceptable level. What constitutes an acceptable level of difference cannot be generalized and will depend on the particular application, time period and species of interest. Moreover, as the application of air quality models is being expanded to cover larger geographical domains and as these models are increasingly being coupled with other modeling systems to better represent air-surface-water exchanges, the effects of model initialization in such applications needs to be studied in future work.

Validation of a Ground-Water Flow Model of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer Using Water-Level and Water-Use Data for 1998-2005 and Evaluation of Water-Use Scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillip, Jonathan A.; Czarnecki, John B.

2009-01-01

A ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas, developed in 2003 to simulate the period of 1918-98, was validated with the addition of water-level and water-use data that extended the observation period to 2005. The original model (2003) was calibrated using water-level observations from 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998, and water-use data through 1997. The original model subsequently was used to simulate water levels from 1999 to 2049 and showed that simulation of continued pumping at the 1997 water-use rate could not be sustained indefinitely without causing dry cells in the model. After publication of the original ground-water flow model, a total of 3,616 water-level observations from 698 locations measured during the period of 1998 to 2005 became available. Additionally, water-use data were compiled and used for the same period, totaling 290,005 discrete water-use values from 43,440 wells with as many as 39,169 wells pumping in any one year. Total pumping (which is primarily agricultural) for this 8-year period was about 2.3 trillion cubic feet of water and was distributed over approximately 10,340 square miles within the model area. An updated version of the original ground-water flow model was used to simulate the period of 1998-2005 with the additional water-level and water-use data. Water-level observations for 1998-2005 ranged from 74 to 293 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 across the model area. The maximum water-level residual (observed minus simulated water-level values) for the 3,616 water-level observations was 52 feet, the minimum water-level residual was 60 feet, the average annual root mean squared error was 8.2 feet, and the annual average absolute residual was 6.0 feet. A correlation coefficient value of 0.96 was calculated for the line of best fit for observed to simulated water levels for the combined 1998-2005 dataset, indicating a good fit to the data and an acceptable validation of the model. After the validation process was completed, additional ground-water model simulations were run to evaluate the response of the aquifer with the 2005 water-use rate applied through 2049 (scenario 1) and the 2005 water-use rate increased 2 percent annually until 2049 (scenario 2). Scenario 1 resulted in 779 dry cells (779 square miles) by 2049 and scenario 2 resulted in 2,910 dry cells (2,910 square miles) by 2049. In both scenarios, the dry cells are concentrated in the Grand Prairie area and Cache River area west of Crowleys Ridge. However, scenario 2 resulted in dry cells to the east of Crowleys Ridge as well. A simulation applying the 1997 water-use rate contained in the original ground-water flow model resulted in 401 dry cells (401 square miles) in the Grand Prairie and Cache River areas.

Hydrological and water quality processes simulation by the integrated MOHID model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epelde, Ane; Antiguedad, Iñaki; Brito, David; Eduardo, Jauch; Neves, Ramiro; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel

2016-04-01

Different modelling approaches have been used in recent decades to study the water quality degradation caused by non-point source pollution. In this study, the MOHID fully distributed and physics-based model has been employed to simulate hydrological processes and nitrogen dynamics in a nitrate vulnerable zone: the Alegria River watershed (Basque Country, Northern Spain). The results of this study indicate that the MOHID code is suitable for hydrological processes simulation at the watershed scale, as the model shows satisfactory performance at simulating the discharge (with NSE: 0.74 and 0.76 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). The agronomical component of the code, allowed the simulation of agricultural practices, which lead to adequate crop yield simulation in the model. Furthermore, the nitrogen exportation also shows satisfactory performance (with NSE: 0.64 and 0.69 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). While the lack of field measurements do not allow to evaluate the nutrient cycling processes in depth, it has been observed that the MOHID model simulates the annual denitrification according to general ranges established for agricultural watersheds (in this study, 9 kg N ha-1 year-1). In addition, the model has simulated coherently the spatial distribution of the denitrification process, which is directly linked to the simulated hydrological conditions. Thus, the model has localized the highest rates nearby the discharge zone of the aquifer and also where the aquifer thickness is low. These results evidence the strength of this model to simulate watershed scale hydrological processes as well as the crop production and the agricultural activity derived water quality degradation (considering both nutrient exportation and nutrient cycling processes).

A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-05-01

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text], that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]; and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique, and simulate the long-term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.

Sea ice simulations based on fields generated by the GLAS GCM. [Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, C. L.; Herman, G. F.

1980-01-01

The GLAS General Circulation Model (GCM) was applied to the four-month simulation of the thermodynamic part of the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model using atmospheric boundary conditions. The sea ice thickness and distribution were predicted for the Jan. 1-Apr. 30 period using the GCM-fields of solar and infrared radiation, specific humidity and air temperature at the surface, and snow accumulation; the sensible heat and evaporative surface fluxes were consistent with the ground temperatures produced by the ice model and the air temperatures determined by the atmospheric concept. It was concluded that the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model results in acceptable ice concentrations and thicknesses when used with GLAS GCM for the Jan.-Apr. period suggesting the feasibility of fully coupled ice-atmosphere simulations with these two approaches.

How much rainfall sustained a Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul; Harper, Anna

2016-04-01

The present-day Sahara desert has periodically transformed to an area of lakes and vegetation during the Quaternary in response to orbitally-induced changes in the monsoon circulation. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of the mid-Holocene generally underestimate the required monsoon shift, casting doubt on the fidelity of these models. However, the climatic regime that characterised this period remains unclear. To address this, we applied an ensemble of dynamic vegetation model simulations using two different models: JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) a comprehensive land surface model, and LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena model) a widely used dynamic vegetation model. The simulations are forced with a number of idealized climate scenarios, in which an observational climatology is progressively altered with imposed anomalies of precipitation and other related variables, including cloud cover and humidity. The applied anomalies are based on an ensemble of general circulation model simulations, and include seasonal variations but are spatially uniform across the region. When perturbing precipitation alone, a significant increase of at least 700mm/year is required to produce model simulations with non-negligible vegetation coverage in the Sahara region. Changes in related variables including cloud cover, surface radiation fluxes and humidity are found to be important in the models, as they modify the water balance and so affect plant growth. Including anomalies in all of these variables together reduces the precipitation change required for a Green Sahara compared to the case of increasing precipitation alone. We assess whether the precipitation changes implied by these vegetation model simulations are consistent with reconstructions for the mid-Holocene from pollen samples. Further, Earth System models predict precipitation increases that are significantly smaller than that inferred from these vegetation model simulations. Understanding this difference presents an ongoing challenge.

Assessing the accuracy of improved force-matched water models derived from Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Köster, Andreas; Spura, Thomas; Rutkai, Gábor; Kessler, Jan; Wiebeler, Hendrik; Vrabec, Jadran; Kühne, Thomas D

2016-07-15

The accuracy of water models derived from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations by means on an improved force-matching scheme is assessed for various thermodynamic, transport, and structural properties. It is found that although the resulting force-matched water models are typically less accurate than fully empirical force fields in predicting thermodynamic properties, they are nevertheless much more accurate than generally appreciated in reproducing the structure of liquid water and in fact superseding most of the commonly used empirical water models. This development demonstrates the feasibility to routinely parametrize computationally efficient yet predictive potential energy functions based on accurate ab initio molecular dynamics simulations for a large variety of different systems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulation of nitrous oxide effluxes, crop yields and soil physical properties using the LandscapeDNDC model in managed ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyckowiak, Jedrzej; Lesny, Jacek; Haas, Edwin; Juszczak, Radoslaw; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Olejnik, Janusz

2014-05-01

Modeling of nitrous oxide emissions from soil is very complex. Many different biological and chemical processes take place in soils which determine the amount of emitted nitrous oxide. Additionaly, biogeochemical models contain many detailed factors which may determine fluxes and other simulated variables. We used the LandscapeDNDC model in order to simulate N2O emissions, crop yields and soil physical properties from mineral cultivated soils in Poland. Nitrous oxide emissions from soils were modeled for fields with winter wheat, winter rye, spring barley, triticale, potatoes and alfalfa crops. Simulations were carried out for the plots of the Brody arable experimental station of Poznan University of Life Science in western Poland and covered the period 2003 - 2012. The model accuracy and its efficiency was determined by comparing simulations result with measurements of nitrous oxide emissions (measured with static chambers) from about 40 field campaigns. N2O emissions are strongly dependent on temperature and soil water content, hence we compared also simulated soil temperature at 10cm depth and soil water content at the same depth with the daily measured values of these driving variables. We compared also simulated yield quantities for each individual experimental plots with yield quantities which were measured in the period 2003-2012. We conclude that the LandscapeDNDC model is capable to simulate soil N2O emissions, crop yields and physical properties of soil with satisfactorily good accuracy and efficiency.

Subject specific finite element modeling of periprosthetic femoral fracture using element deactivation to simulate bone failure.

PubMed

Miles, Brad; Kolos, Elizabeth; Walter, William L; Appleyard, Richard; Shi, Angela; Li, Qing; Ruys, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Subject-specific finite element (FE) modeling methodology could predict peri-prosthetic femoral fracture (PFF) for cementless hip arthoplasty in the early postoperative period. This study develops methodology for subject-specific finite element modeling by using the element deactivation technique to simulate bone failure and validate with experimental testing, thereby predicting peri-prosthetic femoral fracture in the early postoperative period. Material assignments for biphasic and triphasic models were undertaken. Failure modeling with the element deactivation feature available in ABAQUS 6.9 was used to simulate a crack initiation and propagation in the bony tissue based upon a threshold of fracture strain. The crack mode for the biphasic models was very similar to the experimental testing crack mode, with a similar shape and path of the crack. The fracture load is sensitive to the friction coefficient at the implant-bony interface. The development of a novel technique to simulate bone failure by element deactivation of subject-specific finite element models could aid prediction of fracture load in addition to fracture risk characterization for PFF. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

2011-01-01

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To allow for water budget comparisons to the ephemeral models, the two perennial models were then run from 1980 to 2007, the time period constrained somewhat by the later record for the high-altitude climate station used in the simulation. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide mean annual rates and volumes derived from each year of the simulation. Mean annual bias for the calibration period for Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek watersheds was within 6 and 3 percent, and relative errors were about 18 and -2 percent, respectively. For the 1980-2007 period of record, mean recharge efficiency and runoff efficiency (percentage of precipitation as groundwater inflow and runoff) averaged 7 and 39 percent, respectively, for Ash Canyon Creek, and 8 and 31 percent, respectively, for Clear Creek. For this same period, groundwater inflow volumes averaged about 500 acre-feet for Ash Canyon and 1,200 acre-feet for Clear Creek. The simulation period for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from water years 1978 to 2007. Mean annual simulated precipitation ranged from 6 to 11 inches. Estimates of recharge efficiency for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from 3 percent for Eureka Canyon to 7 percent for Eldorado Canyon. Runoff efficiency ranged from 7 percent for Eureka Canyon and 15 percent at Brunswick Canyon. For the 1978-2007 period, mean annual groundwater inflow volumes ranged from about 40 acre-feet for Eureka Canyon to just under 5,000 acre-feet for Churchill Canyon watershed. Watershed model results indicate significant interannual variability in the volumes of groundwater inflow caused by climate variations. For most of the modeled watersheds, little to no groundwater inflow was simulated for years with less than 8 inches of precipitation, unless those years were preceded by abnormally high precipitation years with significant subsurface storage carryover.

Ground Motion Modeling in the Eastern Caucasus

DOE PAGES

Pitarka, Arben; Gok, Rengin; Yetirmishli, Gurban; ...

2016-05-13

In this paper, we analyzed the performance of a preliminary three-dimensional (3D) velocity model of the Eastern Caucasus covering most of the Azerbaijan. The model was developed in support to long-period ground motion simulations and seismic hazard assessment from regional earthquakes in Azerbaijan. The model’s performance was investigated by simulating ground motion from the damaging Mw 5.9, 2012 Zaqatala earthquake, which was well recorded throughout the region by broadband seismic instruments. In our simulations, we use a parallelized finite-difference method of fourth-order accuracy. The comparison between the simulated and recorded ground motion velocity in the modeled period range of 3–20more » s shows that in general, the 3D velocity model performs well. Areas in which the model needs improvements are located mainly in the central part of the Kura basin and in the Caspian Sea coastal areas. Comparisons of simulated ground motion using our 3D velocity model and corresponding 1D regional velocity model were used to locate areas with strong 3D wave propagation effects. In areas with complex underground structure, the 1D model fails to produce the observed ground motion amplitude and duration, and spatial extend of ground motion amplification caused by wave propagation effects.« less

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the Lower Frio River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; the City of Corpus Christi; the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority; the San Antonio River Authority; and the San Antonio Water System, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 5,490 mi2 of the Frio River watershed in south Texas. The purpose of the model is to contribute to the understanding of watershed processes and hydrologic conditions in the lower Frio River watershed. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge by using a numerical representation of physical characteristics of the landscape, and meteorological and streamflow data. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater-treatment-plant discharges, surface-water withdrawals, and estimated groundwater inflow from Leona Springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for various periods of record depending upon available measured data for input and comparison, starting as early as 1961. Because of the large size of the study area, the lower Frio River watershed was divided into 12 subwatersheds; separate Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations in downstream order. Output from the model was summarized by subwatershed, point locations, reservoir reaches, and the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Four long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and two short-term streamflow-gaging stations were used for streamflow model calibration and testing with data from 1991-2008. Calibration was based on data from 2000-08, and testing was based on data from 1991-99. Choke Canyon Reservoir stage data from 1992-2008 and monthly evaporation estimates from 1999-2008 also were used for model calibration. Additionally, 2006-08 ET data from a U.S. Geological Survey meteorological station in Medina County were used for calibration. Streamflow and ET calibration were considered good or very good. For the 2000-08 calibration period, total simulated flow volume and the flow volume of the highest 10 percent of simulated daily flows were calibrated to within about 10 percent of measured volumes at six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. The flow volume of the lowest 50 percent of daily flows was not simulated as accurately but represented a small percent of the total flow volume. The model-fit efficiency for the weekly mean streamflow during the calibration periods ranged from 0.60 to 0.91, and the root mean square error ranged from 16 to 271 percent of the mean flow rate. The simulated total flow volumes during the testing periods at the long-term gaging stations exceeded the measured total flow volumes by approximately 22 to 50 percent at three stations and were within 7 percent of the measured total flow volumes at one station. For the longer 1961-2008 simulation period at the long-term stations, simulated total flow volumes were within about 3 to 18 percent of measured total flow volumes. The calibrations made by using Choke Canyon reservoir volume for 1992-2008, reservoir evaporation for 1999-2008, and ET in Medina County for 2006-08, are considered very good. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to better quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the Upper San Miguel subwatershed model to show the effect of changes to model parameters on the estimated mean recharge, ET, and surface runoff from that part of the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Simulated recharge was most sensitive to the changes in the lower-zone ET (LZ

Simulating the hydrological impacts of inter-annual and seasonal variability in land use land cover change on streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taxak, A. K.; Ojha, C. S. P.

2017-12-01

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes within a watershed are recognised as an important factor affecting hydrological processes and water resources. LULC changes continuously not only in long term but also on the inter-annual and season level. Changes in LULC affects the interception, storage and moisture. A widely used approach in rainfall-runoff modelling through Land surface models (LSM)/ hydrological models is to keep LULC same throughout the model running period. In long term simulations where land use change take place during the run period, using a single LULC does not represent a true picture of ground conditions could result in stationarity of model responses. The present work presents a case study in which changes in LULC are incorporated by using multiple LULC layers. LULC for the study period were created using imageries from Landsat series, Sentinal, EO-1 ALI. Distributed, physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was modified to allow inclusion of LULC as a time varying variable just like climate. The Narayani basin was simulated with LULC, leaf area index (LAI), albedo and climate data for 1992-2015. The results showed that the model simulation with varied parametrization approach has a large improvement over the conventional fixed parametrization approach in terms of long-term water balance. The proposed modelling approach could improve hydrological modelling for applications like land cover change studies, water budget studies etc.

An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik

2017-03-01

A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with the IPSLGCM: contribution to PlioMIP and feedback mechanisms from the presence of mega-lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contoux, C.; Jost, A.; Sepulchre, P.; Ramstein, G.

2012-04-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3 -3 Ma) is the last geological period showing a warmer climate than the preindustrial during a sustained period of time, much longer than interglacial periods of the last million years. Moreover, mPWP position of the continents and atmospheric pCO2 are very close to present-day, both conditions making the mPWP a relevant analogue for future global warming. For these reasons, the mPWP has been the focus of Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), which associates data analysis and modelling. We use the IPSLCM5 Earth System model and its atmospheric component alone (LMDZ), to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), topography, ice sheet extent and vegetation are the ones used within the PlioMIP framework. On a global scale we show the impact of different boundary conditions with LMDZ, and of a global coupling on the simulated climate. Results from the Earth System model are also compared to SST reconstructions, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean, where an important warming occurs, generally poorly reproduced by models. These results will then be part of the multi-model analysis for the Pliocene. The PlioMIP exercise is also about better understanding model/data mismatches. In the present-day desertic regions of Lake Chad (Africa) and Lake Eyre (Australia), vegetation data show the presence of tropical savanna at the expense of deserts during the mPWP. Vegetation models forced by mPWP climatic simulations fail to reproduce more humid vegetation in these locations. There might be a reason for this model/data discrepancy: geological data stand for the presence of mega-lakes in these two regions during the mPWP that are not accounted for in previous simulations. Such extended waterbodies could have important feedbacks on the hydrological cycle and regional climate. We use the LMDZ4 atmospheric model imbedding explicitly resolved lake surfaces to simulate the climate under mega-lake conditions, using a zoom on the regions of interest. This allows us to determine the viability of such waterbodies under mid-Pliocene climatic conditions as well as their feedbacks on the climate system.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

PubMed

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

PubMed Central

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture. PMID:27003834

Diffuse-flow conceptualization and simulation of the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindgren, R.J.

2006-01-01

A numerical ground-water-flow model (hereinafter, the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model) of the karstic Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas was developed for a previous study on the basis of a conceptualization emphasizing conduit development and conduit flow, and included simulating conduits as one-cell-wide, continuously connected features. Uncertainties regarding the degree to which conduits pervade the Edwards aquifer and influence ground-water flow, as well as other uncertainties inherent in simulating conduits, raised the question of whether a model based on the conduit-flow conceptualization was the optimum model for the Edwards aquifer. Accordingly, a model with an alternative hydraulic conductivity distribution without conduits was developed in a study conducted during 2004-05 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System. The hydraulic conductivity distribution for the modified Edwards aquifer model (hereinafter, the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model), based primarily on a conceptualization in which flow in the aquifer predominantly is through a network of numerous small fractures and openings, includes 38 zones, with hydraulic conductivities ranging from 3 to 50,000 feet per day. Revision of model input data for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model was limited to changes in the simulated hydraulic conductivity distribution. The root-mean-square error for 144 target wells for the calibrated steady-state simulation for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model is 20.9 feet. This error represents about 3 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The simulated springflows for Comal and San Marcos Springs for the calibrated steady-state simulation were within 2.4 and 15 percent of the median springflows for the two springs, respectively. The transient calibration period for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model was 1947-2000, with 648 monthly stress periods, the same as for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square error for a period of drought (May-November 1956) for the calibrated transient simulation for 171 target wells is 33.4 feet, which represents about 5 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The root-mean-square error for a period of above-normal rainfall (November 1974-July 1975) for the calibrated transient simulation for 169 target wells is 25.8 feet, which represents about 4 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The root-mean-square error ranged from 6.3 to 30.4 feet in 12 target wells with long-term water-level measurements for varying periods during 1947-2000 for the calibrated transient simulation for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model, and these errors represent 5.0 to 31.3 percent of the range in water-level fluctuations of each of those wells. The root-mean-square errors for the five major springs in the San Antonio segment of the aquifer for the calibrated transient simulation, as a percentage of the range of discharge fluctuations measured at the springs, varied from 7.2 percent for San Marcos Springs and 8.1 percent for Comal Springs to 28.8 percent for Leona Springs. The root-mean-square errors for hydraulic heads for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model are 27, 76, and 30 percent greater than those for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model for the steady-state, drought, and above-normal rainfall synoptic time periods, respectively. The goodness-of-fit between measured and simulated springflows is similar for Comal, San Marcos, and Leona Springs for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model and the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square errors for Comal and Leona Springs were 15.6 and 21.3 percent less, respectively, whereas the root-mean-square error for San Marcos Springs was 3.3 percent greater for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model compared to the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square errors for San Antonio and San Pedro Springs were appreciably greater, 80.2 and 51.0 percent, respectively, for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model. The simulated water budgets for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model are similar to those for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. Differences in percentage of total sources or discharges for a budget component are 2.0 percent or less for all budget components for the steady-state and transient simulations. The largest difference in terms of the magnitude of water budget components for the transient simulation for 1956 was a decrease of about 10,730 acre-feet per year (about 2 per-cent) in springflow for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model compared to the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. This decrease in springflow (a water budget discharge) was largely offset by the decreased net loss of water from storage (a water budget source) of about 10,500 acre-feet per year.

Estimating long-term evolution of fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir using a simplified method based on classification of boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

2017-04-01

The Iffezheim reservoir is the last of a series of reservoirs on the Upper Rhine in Germany. Since its construction in 1977, approximately 115,000 m3 of fine sediments accumulate annually in the weir channel (WSA Freiburg, 2011). In order to obtain detailed information about the space-time development of the topography, the riverbed evolution was measured using echo sounding by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV). 37 sets of sounding data, which have been obtained between July 2000 and February 2011, were used in this research. In a previous work, the morphodynamic processes in the Iffezheim reservoir were investigated using a high-resolution 3D model. The 3D computational fluid dynamic software SSIIM II (Olsen, 2014) was used for this purpose (Zhang et al., 2015). The model was calibrated using field measurements. A computational time of 14.5 hours, using 24 cores of a 2.4 GHz reference computer, was needed for simulating a period of three months on a grid of 238,013 cells. Thus, the long-term (e.g. 30 years) simulation of morphodynamics of the fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir with this model is not feasible. A low complexity approach of "classification of the boundary conditions of discharge and suspended sediment concentration" was applied in this research for a long-term numerical simulation. The basic idea of the approach is to replace instationary or quasi-steady simulations of deposition by a limited series of stationary ones. For these, daily volume changes were calculated considering representative discharge and concentration. Representative boundary conditions were determined by subdividing time series of discharge and concentration into classes and using central values per class. The amount of the deposition in the reservoir for a certain period can then be obtained by adding up the calculated daily depositions. This approach was applied to 10 short-term periods, between two successive echo sounding measurements, and 2 longer ones, which include several short-term periods. Short-term periods spread from 1 to 3 months, whereas long-term periods indicate 2 and 5 years. The simulation results showed an acceptable agreement with the measurements. It was also found that the long-term periods had less deviation to the measurements than the short ones. This simplified method exhibited clear savings in computational time compared to the instationary simulations; in this case only 3 hours of computational time were needed for 5 years simulation period using the reference computer mentioned above. Further research is needed with respect to the limits of this linear approach, i.e. with respect to the frequency with which the set of steady simulations has to be updated due to significant changes in morphology and in turn in hydraulics. Yet, the preliminary results are promising, suggesting that the developed approach is very suitable for a long-term simulation of riverbed evolution. REFERENCES Olsen, N.R.B. 2014. A three-dimensional numerical model for simulation of sediment movements in water intakes with multiblock option. Version 1 and 2. User's manual. Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt (WSA) Freiburg. 2011. Sachstandsbericht oberer Wehrkanal Staustufe Iffezheim. Technical report - Upper weir channel of the Iffezheim hydropower reservoir. Zhang, Q., Hillebrand, G. Moser, H. & Hinkelmann, R. 2015. Simulation of non-uniform sediment transport in a German Reservoir with the SSIIM Model and sensitivity analysis. Proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress. The Hague, The Netherland.

Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Bales, Jerad D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Long-period building response to earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, A.H.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Heaton, T.H.

2008-01-01

This article reports a study of modeled, long-period building responses to ground-motion simulations of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area. The earthquakes include the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, a magnitude 7.8 simulation of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and two hypothetical magnitude 7.8 northern San Andreas fault earthquakes with hypocenters north and south of San Francisco. We use the simulated ground motions to excite nonlinear models of 20-story, steel, welded moment-resisting frame (MRF) buildings. We consider MRF buildings designed with two different strengths and modeled with either ductile or brittle welds. Using peak interstory drift ratio (IDR) as a performance measure, the stiffer, higher strength building models outperform the equivalent more flexible, lower strength designs. The hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake with hypocenter north of San Francisco produces the most severe ground motions. In this simulation, the responses of the more flexible, lower strength building model with brittle welds exceed an IDR of 2.5% (that is, threaten life safety) on 54% of the urban area, compared to 4.6% of the urban area for the stiffer, higher strength building with ductile welds. We also use the simulated ground motions to predict the maximum isolator displacement of base-isolated buildings with linear, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) models. For two existing 3-sec isolator systems near San Francisco, the design maximum displacement is 0.5 m, and our simulations predict isolator displacements for this type of system in excess of 0.5 m in many urban areas. This article demonstrates that a large, 1906-like earthquake could cause significant damage to long-period buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Post-processing of multi-hydrologic model simulations for improved streamflow projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

khajehei, sepideh; Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Hydrologic model outputs are prone to bias and uncertainty due to knowledge deficiency in model and data. Uncertainty in hydroclimatic projections arises due to uncertainty in hydrologic model as well as the epistemic or aleatory uncertainties in GCM parameterization and development. This study is conducted to: 1) evaluate the recently developed multi-variate post-processing method for historical simulations and 2) assess the effect of post-processing on uncertainty and reliability of future streamflow projections in both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The first objective is performed for historical period of 1970-1999. Future streamflow projections are generated for 10 statistically downscaled GCMs from two widely used downscaling methods: Bias Corrected Statistically Downscaled (BCSD) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), over the period of 2010-2099 for two representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Three semi-distributed hydrologic models were employed and calibrated at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution for over 100 points across the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the pacific northwest USA. Streamflow outputs are post-processed through a Bayesian framework based on copula functions. The post-processing approach is relying on a transfer function developed based on bivariate joint distribution between the observation and simulation in historical period. Results show that application of post-processing technique leads to considerably higher accuracy in historical simulations and also reducing model uncertainty in future streamflow projections.

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Data-Model Comparisons of the October, 2002 Event Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Chappell, C. R.; Schunk, R. W.; Barakat, A. R.; Eccles, V.; Glocer, A.; Kistler, L. M.; Haaland, S.; Moore, T. E.

2014-12-01

The September 27 - October 4, 2002 time period has been selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Ionospheric Outflow focus group for community collaborative study because of its high magnetospheric activity and extensive data coverage. The FAST, Polar, and Cluster missions, as well as others, all made key observations during this period, creating a prime event for data-model comparisons. The GEM community has come together to simulate this period using many different methods in order to evaluate models, compare results, and expand our knowledge of ionospheric outflow and its effects on global dynamics. This paper presents Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) simulations of this important period compared against observations from the Polar TIDE, Cluster CODIF and EFW instruments. Density and velocity of oxygen and hydrogen throughout the lobes, plasmasheet, and inner magnetosphere will be the focus of these comparisons. For these simulations, the SWMF couples the multifluid version of BATS-R-US MHD to a variety of ionospheric outflow models of varying complexity. The simplest is outflow arising from constant MHD inner boundary conditions. Two first-principles-based models are also leveraged: the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM), a fluid treatment of outflow dynamics, and the Generalized Polar Wind (GPW) model, which combines fluid and particle-in-cell approaches. Each model is capable of capturing a different set of energization mechanisms, yielding different outflow results. The data-model comparisons will illustrate how well each approach captures reality and which energization mechanisms are most important. This work will also assess our current capability to reproduce ionosphere-magnetosphere mass coupling.

Regenerative life support system research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Sections on modeling, experimental activities during the grant period, and topics under consideration for the future are contained. The sessions contain discussions of: four concurrent modeling approaches that were being integrated near the end of the period (knowledge-based modeling support infrastructure and data base management, object-oriented steady state simulations for three concepts, steady state mass-balance engineering tradeoff studies, and object-oriented time-step, quasidynamic simulations of generic concepts); interdisciplinary research activities, beginning with a discussion of RECON lab development and use, and followed with discussions of waste processing research, algae studies and subsystem modeling, low pressure growth testing of plants, subsystem modeling of plants, control of plant growth using lighting and CO2 supply as variables, search for and development of lunar soil simulants, preliminary design parameters for a lunar base life support system, and research considerations for food processing in space; and appendix materials, including a discussion of the CELSS Conference, detailed analytical equations for mass-balance modeling, plant modeling equations, and parametric data on existing life support systems for use in modeling.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Latest research related to climate change analysis with applications in impact studies over the territory of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, Ana; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Djordjevic, Marija; Ruml, Mirjana; Rankovic-Vasic, Zorica; Przic, Zoran; Stojicic, Djurdja; Krzic, Aleksandra; Rajkovic, Borivoj

2015-04-01

Serbia is a country with relatively small scale terrain features with economy mostly based on local landowners' agricultural production. Climate change analysis must be downscaled accordingly, to recognize climatological features of the farmlands. Climate model simulations and impact studies significantly contribute to the future strategic planning in economic development and therefore impact analysis must be approached with high level of confidence. This paper includes research related to climate change and impacts in Serbia resulted from cooperative work of the modeling and user community. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections for the 21st century with multi-model approach and statistical bias correction are done in order to prepare model results for impact studies. Presented results are from simulations performed using regional EBU-POM model, which is forced with A1B and A2 SRES/IPCC (2007) with comparative analysis with other regional models and from the latest high resolution NMMB simulations forced with RCP8.5 IPCC scenario (2012). Application of bias correction of the model results is necessary when calculated indices are not linearly dependent on the model results and delta approach in presenting results with respect to present climate simulations is insufficient. This is most important during the summer over the north part of the country where model bias produce much higher temperatures and less precipitation, which is known as "summer drying problem" and is common in regional models' simulations over the Pannonian valley. Some of the results, which are already observed in present climate, like higher temperatures and disturbance in the precipitation pattern, lead to present and future advancement of the start of the vegetation period toward earlier dates, associated with an increased risk of the late spring frost, extended vegetation period, disturbed preparation for the rest period, increased duration and frequency of the draught periods, etc. Based on the projected climate changes an application is proposed of the ensemble seasonal forecasts for early preparation in case of upcoming unfavorable weather conditions. This paper was realized as a part of the projects "Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation" (43007) and "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Serbia" (37005) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for the period 2011-2015.

Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204, doi:10.1029/2011JD016595.

A Comparison of Two Chemical Mechanisms Using Data from the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, S. B.; Saylor, R. D.

2016-12-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Canopy Exchange Simulation System (ACCESS) is a 1-D column model of the physical and chemical processes occurring from the Earth's surface to the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this study, we couple ACCESS with environmental data from the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) intensive field measurement campaign to simulate the chemical evolution of biogenic hydrocarbons above a forest canopy over two time periods: a four-day period from June 29-July 2, 2013 and a three-day period from June 21-23, 2013. We quantify the efficacy of the model by calculating R2 values between SOAS chemical measurements and simulation results of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), methacrolein (MACR), α-pinene, and limonene. Two kinetic mechanisms, one from Browne et al. (2014) (RACM2+) and another from Schwantes et al. (2015) (CIT), were implemented in ACCESS and used in independent simulations to determine which mechanism better represents the SOAS data through daytime and nighttime periods. The results demonstrate that RACM2+ and CIT perform at comparable levels for simulating the evolution of isoprene, MVK, and MACR, but both differ substantially from measurements of α-pinene and limonene. The mechanisms perform equally well during both daytime and nighttime periods and thus, substantiated by our results, there is no strong justification for implementing one mechanism over the other.

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strauch, Kellan R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Dynamic energy budget model: a monitoring tool for growth and reproduction performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis in Bizerte Lagoon (Southwestern Mediterranean Sea).

PubMed

Béjaoui-Omri, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Harzallah, Ali; Aloui-Béjaoui, Nejla; El Bour, Monia; Aleya, Lotfi

2014-11-01

Mussel farming is the main economic activity in Bizerte Lagoon, with a production that fluctuates depending on environmental factors. In the present study, we apply a bioenergetic growth model to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory which describes energy flux variation through the different compartments of the mussel body. Thus, the present model simulates both mussel growth and sexual cycle steps according to food availability and water temperature and also the effect of climate change on mussel behavior and reproduction. The results point to good concordance between simulations and growth parameters (metric length and weight) for mussels in the lagoon. A heat wave scenario was also simulated using the DEB model, which highlighted mussel mortality periods during a period of high temperature.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Red Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, Brandywine Creek, and Christina River. The Red Clay Creek is the smallest of the subbasins and drains an area of 54 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency, waterquality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpointsource contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpointsource evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at 1 site in the Red Clay Creek subbasin and at 10 sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Red Clay Creek subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.7 to 10 mi2. One of the reaches contains a regulated reservoir. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Red Clay Creek subbasin are agricultural, forested, residential, and urban.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gage and hourly data from one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated stream- flow volume ranged from -0.8 to 2.1 percent for the 4-year period at the three calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at a site near Stanton, Del., near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 50.2 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -5.8 to 6.0 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -0.8 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow-recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected in 1998 at one USGS streamflowmeasurement station and other water-quality monitoring data collected at three USGS streamflowmeasurement stations. The period of record for waterquality monitoring was variable at the stations, with an end date of October 1998 but the start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspendedsediment concentrations, although suspended solids may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for five storms in 1998 at the one nonpoint-source monitoring site at Wooddale, Del., indicates that simulation error commonly is as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved utrients than particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual storm events. Assessment of the accuracy of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the sparsity of available water-quality data in the basin.Users of the Red Clay Creek HSPF model should be aware of model limitations and consider the following when predictive scenarios are desired: streamflow-duration curves indicate the model simulates stream-flow reasonably well when evaluated over a broad range of conditions and time, although streamflow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamflow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 57.5-year period ending in 2001 at Wooddale, Del., and include all but the extreme high-flow and low-flow events; calibration for water quality was based on sparse data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

Groundwater-level change and evaluation of simulated water levels for irrigated areas in Lahontan Valley, Churchill County, west-central Nevada, 1992 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David W.; Buto, Susan G.; Welborn, Toby L.

2016-09-14

The acquisition and transfer of water rights to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley, Nevada, has caused concern over the potential effects on shallow aquifer water levels. In 1992, water levels in Lahontan Valley were measured to construct a water-table map of the shallow aquifer prior to the effects of water-right transfers mandated by the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone Tribal Settlement Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3289). From 1992 to 2012, approximately 11,810 water-righted acres, or 34,356 acre-feet of water, were acquired and transferred to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley. This report documents changes in water levels measured during the period of water-right transfers and presents an evaluation of five groundwater-flow model scenarios that simulated water-level changes in Lahontan Valley in response to water-right transfers and a reduction in irrigation season length by 50 percent.Water levels measured in 98 wells from 2012 to 2013 were used to construct a water-table map. Water levels in 73 of the 98 wells were compared with water levels measured in 1992 and used to construct a water-level change map. Water-level changes in the 73 wells ranged from -16.2 to 4.1 feet over the 20-year period. Rises in water levels in Lahontan Valley may correspond to annual changes in available irrigation water, increased canal flows after the exceptionally dry and shortened irrigation season of 1992, and the increased conveyance of water rights transferred to Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Water-level declines generally occurred near the boundary of irrigated areas and may be associated with groundwater pumping, water-right transfers, and inactive surface-water storage reservoirs. The largest water-level declines were in the area near Carson Lake.Groundwater-level response to water-right transfers was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed water-level changes for periods representing water-right transfers and a shortened irrigation season in areas near Fallon and Stillwater, Nevada. In the Stillwater modeled area, water rights associated with nearly 50 percent of the irrigated land were transferred from 1992 to 1998, represented by the model scenario reduction in groundwater recharge by 50 percent. The scenario resulted in a simulated average decline of 0.6 foot; average observed water-level change for the modeled area was estimated to be 0.0 foot, or no change. In the Fallon modeled area, transfers of water rights associated with 180 acres of land occurred from 1994 to 2008. The transfer is most similar to the scenario for removal of 320 acres of irrigated land. The model scenario resulted in simulated water-level declines of 0.1; water levels measured from 1994 to 2012 indicate no significant trends in water levels, or approximately zero change in water levels, for the Fallon modeled area.The model scenarios included the simulation of a irrigation season shortened by 50 percent, which was determined to have occurred in the 1992 irrigation season in both modeled areas. The shortening of the irrigation season in the Fallon modeled area resulted in simulated water-level declines of 1.1 feet; observed declines were estimated to be 1.3 feet. The Stillwater model simulations resulted in a simulated decline of 1.4 feet, and observed water levels declined an estimated 2.3 feet for the area. The estimated difference between simulated and observed water levels are 0.2 and 0.9 foot for the Fallon and Stillwater modeled areas, respectively. Observed water-level changes were generally within one standard deviation of changes from model simulations, based on the selected periods of comparison. Simulated and observed water-level changes agree well, generally within 1 foot; however, the model scenarios were only approximately similar to the observed conditions, and periods of comparison were generally shorter for the observed periods and included additional cumulative effects of water-right transfers. Climate variability was not considered in the model scenarios.

Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.

2015-12-01

Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

CHARMM-GUI 10 years for biomolecular modeling and simulation.

PubMed

Jo, Sunhwan; Cheng, Xi; Lee, Jumin; Kim, Seonghoon; Park, Sang-Jun; Patel, Dhilon S; Beaven, Andrew H; Lee, Kyu Il; Rui, Huan; Park, Soohyung; Lee, Hui Sun; Roux, Benoît; MacKerell, Alexander D; Klauda, Jeffrey B; Qi, Yifei; Im, Wonpil

2017-06-05

CHARMM-GUI, http://www.charmm-gui.org, is a web-based graphical user interface that prepares complex biomolecular systems for molecular simulations. CHARMM-GUI creates input files for a number of programs including CHARMM, NAMD, GROMACS, AMBER, GENESIS, LAMMPS, Desmond, OpenMM, and CHARMM/OpenMM. Since its original development in 2006, CHARMM-GUI has been widely adopted for various purposes and now contains a number of different modules designed to set up a broad range of simulations: (1) PDB Reader & Manipulator, Glycan Reader, and Ligand Reader & Modeler for reading and modifying molecules; (2) Quick MD Simulator, Membrane Builder, Nanodisc Builder, HMMM Builder, Monolayer Builder, Micelle Builder, and Hex Phase Builder for building all-atom simulation systems in various environments; (3) PACE CG Builder and Martini Maker for building coarse-grained simulation systems; (4) DEER Facilitator and MDFF/xMDFF Utilizer for experimentally guided simulations; (5) Implicit Solvent Modeler, PBEQ-Solver, and GCMC/BD Ion Simulator for implicit solvent related calculations; (6) Ligand Binder for ligand solvation and binding free energy simulations; and (7) Drude Prepper for preparation of simulations with the CHARMM Drude polarizable force field. Recently, new modules have been integrated into CHARMM-GUI, such as Glycolipid Modeler for generation of various glycolipid structures, and LPS Modeler for generation of lipopolysaccharide structures from various Gram-negative bacteria. These new features together with existing modules are expected to facilitate advanced molecular modeling and simulation thereby leading to an improved understanding of the structure and dynamics of complex biomolecular systems. Here, we briefly review these capabilities and discuss potential future directions in the CHARMM-GUI development project. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ozone Temporal Variability in the Subarctic Region: Comparison of Satellite Measurements with Numerical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shved, G. M.; Virolainen, Ya. A.; Timofeyev, Yu. M.; Ermolenko, S. I.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

2018-01-01

Fourier and wavelet spectra of time series for the ozone column abundance in the atmospheric 0-25 and 25-60 km layers are analyzed from SBUV satellite observations and from numerical simulations based on the RSHU and EMAC models. The analysis uses datasets for three subarctic locations (St. Petersburg, Harestua, and Kiruna) for 2000-2014. The Fourier and wavelet spectra show periodicities in the range from 10 days to 10 years and from 1 day to 2 years, respectively. The comparison of the spectra shows overall agreement between the observational and modeled datasets. However, the analysis has revealed differences both between the measurements and the models and between the models themselves. The differences primarily concern the Rossby wave period region and the 11-year and semiannual periodicities. Possible reasons are given for the differences between the models and the measurements.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

Global attractivity of an almost periodic N-species nonlinear ecological competitive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yonghui; Han, Maoan; Huang, Zhenkun

2008-01-01

By using comparison theorem and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we study the following almost periodic nonlinear N-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model: A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence and global attractivity of a unique positive almost periodic solution of the above model. As applications, some special competition models are studied again, our new results improve and generalize former results. Examples and their simulations show the feasibility of our main results.

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

DOEpatents

Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

2017-03-07

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

Simulated fate and transport of metolachlor in the unsaturated zone, Maryland, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bayless, E.R.; Capel, P.D.; Barbash, J.E.; Webb, R.M.T.; Hancock, T.L.C.; Lampe, D.C.

2008-01-01

An unsaturated-zone transport model was used to examine the transport and fate of metolachlor applied to an agricultural site in Maryland, USA. The study site was instrumented to collect data on soil-water content, soil-water potential, ground water levels, major ions, pesticides, and nutrients from the unsaturated zone during 2002-2004. The data set was enhanced with site-specific information describing weather, soils, and agricultural practices. The Root Zone Water Quality Model was used to simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring in the unsaturated zone. Model calibration to bromide tracer concentrations indicated flow occurred through the soil matix. Simulated recharge rates were within the measured range of values. The pesticide transport model was calibrated to the intensive data collection period (2002-2004), and the calibrated model was then used to simulate the period 1984 through 2004 to examine the impact of sustained agricultural management practices on the concentrations of metolachlor and its degradates at the study site. Simulation results indicated that metolachlor degrades rapidly in the root zone but that the degradates are transported to depth in measurable quantities. Simulations indicated that degradate transport is strongly related to the duration of sustained use of metolachlor and the extent of biodegradation. 

Simulations of groundwater flow, transport, and age in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a study of transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants (TANC) to public-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heywood, Charles E.

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to contamination from manmade and natural sources can be characterized by the groundwater-age distribution measured in a supply well and the associated implications for the source depths of the withdrawn water. Coupled groundwater flow and transport models were developed to simulate the transport of the geochemical age-tracers carbon-14, tritium, and three chlorofluorocarbon species to public-supply wells in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A separate, regional-scale simulation of transport of carbon-14 that used the flow-field computed by a previously documented regional groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to specify the initial concentrations of carbon-14 in the local-scale transport model. Observations of the concentrations of each of the five chemical species, in addition to water-level observations and measurements of intra-borehole flow within a public-supply well, were used to calibrate parameters of the local-scale groundwater flow and transport models. The calibrated groundwater flow model simulates the mixing of “young” groundwater, which entered the groundwater flow system after 1950 as recharge at the water table, with older resident groundwater that is more likely associated with natural contaminants. Complexity of the aquifer system in the zone of transport between the water table and public-supply well screens was simulated with a geostatistically generated stratigraphic realization based upon observed lithologic transitions at borehole control locations. Because effective porosity was simulated as spatially uniform, the simulated age tracers are more efficiently transported through the portions of the simulated aquifer with relatively higher simulated hydraulic conductivity. Non-pumping groundwater wells with long screens that connect aquifer intervals having different hydraulic heads can provide alternate pathways for contaminant transport that are faster than the advective transport through the aquifer material. Simulation of flow and transport through these wells requires time discretization that adequately represents periods of pumping and non-pumping. The effects of intra-borehole flow are not fully represented in the simulation because it employs seasonal stress periods, which are longer than periods of pumping and non-pumping. Further simulations utilizing daily pumpage data and model stress periods may help quantify the relative effects of intra-borehole versus advective aquifer flow on the transport of contaminants near the public-supply wells. The fraction of young water withdrawn from the studied supply well varies with simulated pumping rates due to changes in the relative contributions to flow from different aquifer intervals. The advective transport of dissolved solutes from a known contaminant source to the public-supply wells was simulated by using particle-tracking. Because of the transient groundwater flow field, scenarios with alternative contaminant release times result in different simulated-particle fates, most of which are withdrawn from the aquifer at wells that are between the source and the studied supply well. The relatively small effective porosity required to simulate advective transport from the simulated contaminant source to the studied supply well is representative of a preferential pathway and not the predominant aquifer effective porosity that was estimated by the calibration of the model to observed chemical-tracer concentrations.

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, J. P.; Delecluse, F.; Maes, C.; Levy, C.

1995-01-01

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Verification of a one-dimensional, unsteady-flow model for the Fox River in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, Audrey L.; Turner, Mary J.

1996-01-01

The previously-calibrated application of the Full EQuations (FEQ) model of one-dimensional, unsteady flow to a 30.7-mile reach of the Fox River in northeastern Illinois was verified with discharge, stage, and dye-transport data collected during a 12-day period in October-November 1990. The period included unsteady flow induced by the operation of a sluice gate dam located at the upstream end of the reach. The model flow field was input to the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (BLTM) for the simulation of dye transport. The results of the FEQ and BLTM model simulations are compared with the measured data and sensitivity analyses of the model parameters for this application are presented.

Propagation of Electrical Excitation in a Ring of Cardiac Cells: A Computer Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kogan, B. Y.; Karplus, W. J.; Karpoukhin, M. G.; Roizen, I. M.; Chudin, E.; Qu, Z.

1996-01-01

The propagation of electrical excitation in a ring of cells described by the Noble, Beeler-Reuter (BR), Luo-Rudy I (LR I), and third-order simplified (TOS) mathematical models is studied using computer simulation. For each of the models it is shown that after transition from steady-state circulation to quasi-periodicity achieved by shortening the ring length (RL), the action potential duration (APD) restitution curve becomes a double-valued function and is located below the original ( that of an isolated cell) APD restitution curve. The distributions of APD and diastolic interval (DI) along a ring for the entire range of RL corresponding to quasi-periodic oscillations remain periodic with the period slightly different from two RLs. The 'S' shape of the original APD restitution curve determines the appearance of the second steady-state circulation region for short RLs. For all the models and the wide variety of their original APD restitution curves, no transition from quasi-periodicity to chaos was observed.

Simulation-based power calculation for designing interrupted time series analyses of health policy interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2011-11-01

Interrupted time series is a strong quasi-experimental research design to evaluate the impacts of health policy interventions. Using simulation methods, we estimated the power requirements for interrupted time series studies under various scenarios. Simulations were conducted to estimate the power of segmented autoregressive (AR) error models when autocorrelation ranged from -0.9 to 0.9 and effect size was 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0, investigating balanced and unbalanced numbers of time periods before and after an intervention. Simple scenarios of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models were also explored. For AR models, power increased when sample size or effect size increased, and tended to decrease when autocorrelation increased. Compared with a balanced number of study periods before and after an intervention, designs with unbalanced numbers of periods had less power, although that was not the case for ARCH models. The power to detect effect size 1.0 appeared to be reasonable for many practical applications with a moderate or large number of time points in the study equally divided around the intervention. Investigators should be cautious when the expected effect size is small or the number of time points is small. We recommend conducting various simulations before investigation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Lagrangian analysis of a sudden stratospheric warming - Comparison of a model simulation and LIMS observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, R. B.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Fairlie, T. D.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, William L.; Turner, Richard E.

1992-01-01

Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Dynamic Simulation of a Periodic 10 K Sorption Cryocooler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhandari, P.; Rodriguez, J.; Bard, S.; Wade, L.

1994-01-01

A transient thermal simulation model has been developed to simulate the dynamic performance of a multiple-stage 10 K sorption cryocooler for spacecraft sensor cooling applications that require periodic quick-cooldown (under 2 minutes) , negligible vibration, low power consumption, and long life (5 to 10 years). The model was specifically designed to represent the Brilliant Eyes Ten-Kelvin Sorption Cryocooler Experiment (BETSCE), but it can be adapted to represent other sorption cryocooler systems as well. The model simulates the heat transfer, mass transfer, and thermodynamic processes in the cryostat and the sorbent beds for the entire refrigeration cycle, and includes the transient effects of variable hydrogen supply pressures due to expansion and overflow of hydrogen during the cooldown operation. The paper describes model limitations and simplifying assumptions, with estimates of errors induced by them, and presents comparisons of performance predictions with ground experiments. An important benefit of the model is its ability to predict performance sensitivities to variations of key design and operational parameters. The insights thus obtained are expected to lead to higher efficiencies and lower weights for future designs.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

2015-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, B.; Hicks Pries, C.; Phillips, C. L.

2014-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

Spiral-wave dynamics in ionically realistic mathematical models for human ventricular tissue: the effects of periodic deformation.

PubMed

Nayak, Alok R; Pandit, Rahul

2014-01-01

We carry out an extensive numerical study of the dynamics of spiral waves of electrical activation, in the presence of periodic deformation (PD) in two-dimensional simulation domains, in the biophysically realistic mathematical models of human ventricular tissue due to (a) ten-Tusscher and Panfilov (the TP06 model) and (b) ten-Tusscher, Noble, Noble, and Panfilov (the TNNP04 model). We first consider simulations in cable-type domains, in which we calculate the conduction velocity θ and the wavelength λ of a plane wave; we show that PD leads to a periodic, spatial modulation of θ and a temporally periodic modulation of λ; both these modulations depend on the amplitude and frequency of the PD. We then examine three types of initial conditions for both TP06 and TNNP04 models and show that the imposition of PD leads to a rich variety of spatiotemporal patterns in the transmembrane potential including states with a single rotating spiral (RS) wave, a spiral-turbulence (ST) state with a single meandering spiral, an ST state with multiple broken spirals, and a state SA in which all spirals are absorbed at the boundaries of our simulation domain. We find, for both TP06 and TNNP04 models, that spiral-wave dynamics depends sensitively on the amplitude and frequency of PD and the initial condition. We examine how these different types of spiral-wave states can be eliminated in the presence of PD by the application of low-amplitude pulses by square- and rectangular-mesh suppression techniques. We suggest specific experiments that can test the results of our simulations.

Spiral-wave dynamics in ionically realistic mathematical models for human ventricular tissue: the effects of periodic deformation

PubMed Central

Nayak, Alok R.; Pandit, Rahul

2014-01-01

We carry out an extensive numerical study of the dynamics of spiral waves of electrical activation, in the presence of periodic deformation (PD) in two-dimensional simulation domains, in the biophysically realistic mathematical models of human ventricular tissue due to (a) ten-Tusscher and Panfilov (the TP06 model) and (b) ten-Tusscher, Noble, Noble, and Panfilov (the TNNP04 model). We first consider simulations in cable-type domains, in which we calculate the conduction velocity θ and the wavelength λ of a plane wave; we show that PD leads to a periodic, spatial modulation of θ and a temporally periodic modulation of λ; both these modulations depend on the amplitude and frequency of the PD. We then examine three types of initial conditions for both TP06 and TNNP04 models and show that the imposition of PD leads to a rich variety of spatiotemporal patterns in the transmembrane potential including states with a single rotating spiral (RS) wave, a spiral-turbulence (ST) state with a single meandering spiral, an ST state with multiple broken spirals, and a state SA in which all spirals are absorbed at the boundaries of our simulation domain. We find, for both TP06 and TNNP04 models, that spiral-wave dynamics depends sensitively on the amplitude and frequency of PD and the initial condition. We examine how these different types of spiral-wave states can be eliminated in the presence of PD by the application of low-amplitude pulses by square- and rectangular-mesh suppression techniques. We suggest specific experiments that can test the results of our simulations. PMID:24959148

Insights into the paleoclimate of the PETM from an ensemble of EMIC simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keery, John; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Monteiro, Fanny; Ridgwell, Andy

2016-04-01

The Eocene epoch, and in particular, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) of 55.8 Ma, exhibit several features of particular interest for probing our understanding of the Earth system and carbon cycle. CO2 levels have not yet been definitively established, but were known to have varied considerably, peaking at up to several times modern values. Temperatures were several degrees higher than in the modern era, and there were periods of relatively rapid warming, with substantial variability in carbon cycle processes. The Eocene is therefore highly relevant for our understanding of the climate of the 21st Century. Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), with less detailed simulation of the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans than general circulation models (GCMs), are sufficiently fast to allow climate modelling over long periods of geological time in comparatively short periods of computer run-time. This speed advantage of EMICs over GCMs permits an "ensemble" of model simulations to be run, allowing statistical analysis of results to be carried out, and allowing the uncertainties in model predictions to be estimated. Here we apply the EMICs PLASIM-GENIE, and GENIE-1, with an Eocene paleogeography which incorporates the major continental configurations and ocean connections, including a shallow strait linking the Arctic to the Tethys, but with neither the Tasman Gateway nor the Drake Passage yet open. Our two model strategy benefits from the detailed simulation of ocean biogeochemistry in GENIE-1, and the 3D spectral atmospheric dynamics in PLASIM-GENIE, which also provides boundary conditions for the GENIE-1 simulations. Using a 50-member ensemble of 1000-year quasi-equilibrium simulations with PLASIM-GENIE, we investigate the relative contributions of orbital and CO2 variability on climate and equator-pole temperature gradients. Results from PLASIM-GENIE are used to configure a harmonised ensemble of GENIE-1 simulations, which will be compared with newly obtained geochemical data on ocean oxygenation through the Eocene from the UK NERC RESPIRE project.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Quinn, N.; Woods, R. A.; Wagener, T.; Howden, N. J. K.

2015-12-01

Hydrological models are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow predictions. However, simulating low flows and droughts is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of water resource system elements during low flow periods. These dynamic processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to data and model limitations. Furthermore, calibrated or behavioural models may not be effectively evaluated during more extreme drought periods. A better understanding of the processes that occur during low flows and how these are represented within models is thus required if we want to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. In this study, we assess the performance of dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation. Dynamic TOPMODEL was applied to a number of UK catchments in the Thames region using time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that captured multiple historic droughts over a period of several years. The model performance was assessed against the observed discharge time series using a limits of acceptability framework, which included uncertainty in the discharge time series. We evaluate the models against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour and investigate differences in model performance between catchments, model diagnostics and for different low flow periods. We also considered the impact of surface water and groundwater abstractions and discharges on the observed discharge time series and how this affected the model evaluation. From analysing the model performance, we suggest future improvements to Dynamic TOPMODEL to improve the representation of low flow processes within the model structure.

OAKSIM: An individual-tree growth and yield simulator for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Donald E. Hilt

1985-01-01

OAKSIM is an individual-tree growth and yield simulator for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands. Growth and yield projections for various thinning alternatives can be made with OAKSIM for a period of up to 50 years. Simulator components include an individual-tree diameter growth model, a mortality model, height prediction equations, bark ratio equations, a taper-...

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: Sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mathematical model of organic substrate degradation in solid waste windrow composting.

PubMed

Seng, Bunrith; Kristanti, Risky Ayu; Hadibarata, Tony; Hirayama, Kimiaki; Katayama-Hirayama, Keiko; Kaneko, Hidehiro

2016-01-01

Organic solid waste composting is a complex process that involves many coupled physical, chemical and biological mechanisms. To understand this complexity and to ease in planning, design and management of the composting plant, mathematical model for simulation is usually applied. The aim of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of organic substrate degradation and its performance evaluation in solid waste windrow composting system. The present model is a biomass-dependent model, considering biological growth processes under the limitation of moisture, oxygen and substrate contents, and temperature. The main output of this model is substrate content which was divided into two categories: slowly and rapidly degradable substrates. To validate the model, it was applied to a laboratory scale windrow composting of a mixture of wood chips and dog food. The wastes were filled into a cylindrical reactor of 6 cm diameter and 1 m height. The simulation program was run for 3 weeks with 1 s stepwise. The simulated results were in reasonably good agreement with the experimental results. The MC and temperature of model simulation were found to be matched with those of experiment, but limited for rapidly degradable substrates. Under anaerobic zone, the degradation of rapidly degradable substrate needs to be incorporated into the model to achieve full simulation of a long period static pile composting. This model is a useful tool to estimate the changes of substrate content during composting period, and acts as a basic model for further development of a sophisticated model.

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, K. S.

1986-01-01

During this period the parametric studies of the iodine laser oscillator pumped by a Vortek simulator were carried out before amplifier studies. The amplifier studies are postponed to the extended period after completing the parametric studies. In addition, the kinetic modeling of a solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier, and the experimental work for a solar pumped dye laser amplifier are in progress. This report contains three parts: (1) a 10 W CW iodine laser pumped by a Vortek solar simulator; (2) kinetic modeling to predict the time to lasing threshold, lasing time, and energy output of solar-pumped iodine laser; and (3) the study of the dye laser amplifier pumped by a Tamarack solar simulator.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Christina River subbasin and overview of simulations in other subbasins of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Christina River subbasin (exclusive of the Brandywine, Red Clay, and White Clay Creek subbasins) drains an area of 76 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking water supply, and support of aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point- and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint- source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the Christina River subbasin and nine sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Christina River subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 3.8 to 21.9 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Christina River subbasin are residential, urban, forested, agricultural, and open.The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-measurement stations for the period of October 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data from one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologic station and hourly data from one NOAA meteorologic station were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.3 to 5.3 percent for a 10-month portion of the calibration period at the two calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error for the 4-year period. For example, at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, near the bottom of the free-flowing part of the subbasin (drainage area of 21 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -6.9 to 6.5 percent and the overall error for the 4-year period was -1.1 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the three calibration sites for total volume, low-flow recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using nonpoint-source monitoring data collected at two USGS streamflow-measurement stations and other water-quality monitoring data. The period of record for water-quality monitoring was variable at the stations, with a start date ranging from October 1994 to January 1998 and an end date of October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended-solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulaion. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for up to six storms in 1998 at the two nonpoint-source monitoring sites (Little Mill Creek near Newport and Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del.) indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria; much larger errors are possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the subbasin.Users of the Christina River subbasin HSPF model and HSPF models for other subbasins in the Christina River Basin should be aware of model limitations and consider the following if the model is used for predictive purposes: streamflow-duration curves suggest the model simulates streamflow reasonably well when measured over a broad range of conditions and time although streamflow and the corresponding water quality for individual storm events may not be well simulated; streamflow-duration curves for the simulation period compare well with duration curves for the 8-year period ending in 2001 at Christina River at Coochs Bridge, Del., and include all but the extreme high-flow and low-flow events; and calibration for water quality was based on limited data, with the result of increasing uncertainty in the water-quality simulation.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN SCENARIO ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on

observed land-cover/use change is used to quantify error associated with water-yield

simulations for a series of known landscape conditions over a 24-year period with the

goal of evaluatin...

ADVANCED UTILITY SIMULATION MODEL, MULTI-PERIOD MULTI-STATE MODULE DESIGN DOCUMENTATION (VERSION 1.0)

EPA Science Inventory

The report is one of 11 in a series describing the initial development of the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM) by the Universities Research Group on Energy (URGE) and its continued development by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) research team. The...

Evaluation of the ADAPT model for simulating nitrogen dynamics in a tile-drained agricultural watershed in central Illinois.

PubMed

Sogbedji, Jean M; McIsaac, Gregory F

2006-01-01

Assessing the accuracy of agronomic and water quality simulation models in different soils, land-use systems, and environments provides a basis for using and improving these models. We evaluated the performance of the ADAPT model for simulating riverine nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) export from a 1500-km2 watershed in central Illinois, where approximately 85% of the land is used for maize-soybean production and tile drainage is common. Soil chemical properties, crop nitrogen (N) uptake coefficient, dry matter ratio, and a denitrification reduction coefficient were used as calibration parameters to optimize the fit between measured and simulated NO3-N load from the watershed for the 1989 to 1993 period. The applicability of the calibrated parameter values was tested by using these values for simulating the 1994 to 1997 period on the same watershed. Willmott's index of agreement ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual comparisons of riverine nitrate N loads. Simulation accuracy generally decreased as the time interval decreased. Willmott's index for simulated crop yields ranged from 0.91 to 0.99; however, observed crop yields were used as input to the model. The partial N budget results suggested that 52 to 72 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) accumulated in the soil, but simulated biological N fixation associated with soybeans was considerably greater than literature values for the region. Improvement of the N fixation algorithms and incorporation of mechanisms that describe soybean yield in response to environmental conditions appear to be needed to improve the performance of the model.

Seasonal variations of soil erosion in UK under climate change: simulations with the use of high-resolution regional climatic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Rossano; Kendon, Elizabeth; Constantine, José Antonio; Schindewolf, Marcus; Hall, Ian

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, twenty-first century climate change simulations for Great Britain forecast an increase of surface runoff and flooding frequency. Once quality and resolution of the simulated rainfall deeply influence the results, we adopted rainfall simulations issued of a high-resolution climate model recently carried out for extended periods (13 years for present-day and future periods 2100) at 1.5 km grid scale over the south of the United Kingdom (simulations, which for the future period use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP 8.5 scenario, Kendon et al., 2014). We simulated soil erosion with 3D soil erosion model Schmidt (1990) on two catchments of Great Britain: the Rother catchment (350 km2) in West Sussex, England, because it has reported some of the most erosive events observed during the last 50 years in the UK, and the Conwy catchment (628 Km2) in North Wales, which is extremely resilient to soil erosion because of the abundant natural vegetation. Estimation of changes in soil moisture, saturation deficit as well as vegetation cover at daily time step have been done with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) (Best et al, 2011). Our results confirm the Rother catchment is the most erosive, while the Conwy catchment is the more resilient to soil erosion. Sediment production is perceived increase in both cases for the end of the century (27% and 50%, respectively). Seasonal disaggregation of the results revels that, while the most part of soil erosion is produced in winter months (DJF), the higher soil erosion variability for future periods is observed in summer (JJA). This behaviour is supported by the rainfall simulation analyse which highlighted this dual behaviour in precipitations.

Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

2012-04-01

Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata conductance, as well as the time course of the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). The experiment was conducted at the INRA-Avignon (France) crop site (ICOS associated site), for which 10 years of energy and water eddy fluxes, soil moisture profiles, vegetation measurements, agricultural practises are available for distinct crop types. The uncertainties in evapotranspiration and energy flux estimates are quantified from both 10-year trend analysis and selected daily cycles spanning a range of atmospheric conditions and phenological stages. While the net radiation flux is correctly simulated, the cumulated latent heat flux is under-estimated. Daily plots indicate i) an overestimation of evapotranspiration over bare soil probably due to an overestimation of the soil water reservoir available for evaporation and ii) an under-estimation of transpiration for developed canopy. Uncertainties attached to the re-analysis atmospheric data show little influence on the cumulated values of evapotranspiration. Better performances are reached using in situ soil depths and site-calibrated photosynthesis parameters compared to the simulations based on the ECOCLIMAP standard values. Finally, this paper highlights the impact of the temporal succession of vegetation cover and bare soil on the simulation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Thus, solutions to account for crop rotation in the implementation of SVAT models are discussed.

Response of North American ecosystem models to multi-annual periodicities in temperature and precipitation

Treesearch

J. Alan Yeakley; Ron A. Moen; David D. Breshears; Martha K. Nungesser

1994-01-01

Ecosystem models typically use input temperature and precipitation data generated stochastically from weather station means and variances. Although the weather station data are based on measurements taken over a few decades, model simulations are usually on the order of centuries. Consequently, observed periodicities in temperature and precipitation at the continental...

Evaluating Soil Carbon Sequestration in Central Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doraiswamy, P. C.; Hunt, E. R.; McCarty, G. W.; Daughtry, C. S.; Izaurralde, C.

2005-12-01

The potential for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration through landuse and management of agricultural systems is of great interest worldwide. Agricultural soils can be a source of CO2 when not properly managed but can also be a sink for sequestering CO2 through proper soil and crop management. The EPIC-CENTURY biogeochemical model was used to simulate the baseline level of soil carbon from soil survey data and project changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) under different tillage and crop management practices for corn and soybean crops. The study was conducted in central Iowa (50 km x 100 km) to simulate changes in soil carbon over the next 50 years. The simulations were conducted in two phases; initially a 25-year period (1971-1995) was simulated using conventional tillage practices since there was a transition in new management after 1995. In the second 25-year period (1996-2020), four different modeling scenarios were applied namely; conventional tillage, mulch tillage, no-tillage and no-tillage with a rye cover crop over the winter. The model simulation results showed potential gains in soil carbon in the top layers of the soil for conservation tillage. The simulations were made at a spatial resolution of 1.6 km x 1.6 km and mapped for the study area. There was a mean reduction in soil organic carbon of 0.095 T/ha per year over the 25-year period starting with 1996 for the conventional tillage practice. However, for management practices of mulch tillage, no tillage and no tillage with cover crop there was an increase in soil organic carbon of 0.12, 0.202 and 0.263 T/ha respectively over the same 25-year period. These results are in general similar to studies conducted in this region.

Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

Cycle-averaged dynamics of a periodically driven, closed-loop circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldt, T.; Chang, J. L.; Chen, J. J. S.; Verghese, G. C.; Mark, R. G.

2005-01-01

Time-varying elastance models have been used extensively in the past to simulate the pulsatile nature of cardiovascular waveforms. Frequently, however, one is interested in dynamics that occur over longer time scales, in which case a detailed simulation of each cardiac contraction becomes computationally burdensome. In this paper, we apply circuit-averaging techniques to a periodically driven, closed-loop, three-compartment recirculation model. The resultant cycle-averaged model is linear and time invariant, and greatly reduces the computational burden. It is also amenable to systematic order reduction methods that lead to further efficiencies. Despite its simplicity, the averaged model captures the dynamics relevant to the representation of a range of cardiovascular reflex mechanisms. c2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator.

PubMed

Chang, Howard H; Fuentes, Montserrat; Frey, H Christopher

2012-09-01

This paper describes a modeling framework for estimating the acute effects of personal exposure to ambient air pollution in a time series design. First, a spatial hierarchical model is used to relate Census tract-level daily ambient concentrations and simulated exposures for a subset of the study period. The complete exposure time series is then imputed for risk estimation. Modeling exposure via a statistical model reduces the computational burden associated with simulating personal exposures considerably. This allows us to consider personal exposures at a finer spatial resolution to improve exposure assessment and for a longer study period. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of fine particulate matter of <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality in the New York City metropolitan area during the period 2001-2005. Personal PM(2.5) exposures were simulated from the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation. Accounting for exposure uncertainty, the authors estimated a 2.32% (95% posterior interval: 0.68, 3.94) increase in mortality per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in personal exposure to PM(2.5) from outdoor sources on the previous day. The corresponding estimates per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) ambient concentration was 1.13% (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 2.00). The risks of mortality associated with PM(2.5) were also higher during the summer months.

Simulations of Madden-Julian Oscillation in High Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Liping; Stenchikov, Georgiy; McCabe, Matthew; Bangalath, HamzaKunhu; Raj, Jerry; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

The simulation of tropical signals, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is one of the major deficiencies in current numerical models. The unrealistic features in the MJO simulations include the weak amplitude, more power at higher frequencies, displacement of the temporal and spatial distributions, eastward propagation speed being too fast, and a lack of coherent structure for the eastward propagation from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific (e.g., Slingo et al. 1996). While some improvement in simulating MJO variance and coherent eastward propagation has been attributed to model physics, model mean background state and air-sea interaction, studies have shown that the model resolution, especially for higher horizontal resolution, may play an important role in producing a more realistic simulation of MJO (e.g., Sperber et al. 2005). In this study, we employ unique high-resolution (25-km) simulations conducted using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) to evaluate the MJO simulation against the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim re-analysis (ERAI) dataset. We specifically focus on the ability of the model to represent the MJO related amplitude, spatial distribution, eastward propagation, and horizontal and vertical structures. Additionally, as the HIRAM output covers not only an historic period (1979-2012) but also future period (2012-2050), the impact of future climate change related to the MJO is illustrated. The possible changes in intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events (e.g., strong wind and heavy rainfall) in the western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region are highlighted.

Validation of SWEEP for creep, saltation, and suspension in a desert-oasis ecotone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pi, H.; Sharratt, B.; Feng, G.; Lei, J.; Li, X.; Zheng, Z.

2016-03-01

Wind erosion in the desert-oasis ecotone can accelerate desertification, but little is known about the susceptibility of the ecotone to wind erosion in the Tarim Basin despite being a major source of windblown dust in China. The objective of this study was to test the performance of the Single-event Wind Erosion Evaluation Program (SWEEP) in simulating soil loss as creep, saltation, and suspension in a desert-oasis ecotone. Creep, saltation, and suspension were measured and simulated in a desert-oasis ecotone of the Tarim Basin during discrete periods of high winds in spring 2012 and 2013. The model appeared to adequately simulate total soil loss (ranged from 23 to 2272 g m-2 across sample periods) according to the high index of agreement (d = 0.76). The adequate agreement of the SWEEP in simulating total soil loss was due to the good performance of the model (d = 0.71) in simulating creep plus saltation. The SWEEP model, however, inadequately simulated suspension based upon a low d (⩽0.43). The slope estimates of the regression between simulated and measured suspension and difference of mean suggested that the SWEEP underestimated suspension. The adequate simulation of creep plus saltation thus provides reasonable estimates of total soil loss using SWEEP in a desert-oasis environment.

Impact of hydrological variations on modeling of peatland CO2 fluxes: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, Benjamin N.; Desai, Ankur R.; Schroeder, Nicole M.; Ricciuto, Dan; Barr, Alan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Grant, Robert F.; Poulter, Benjamin; Verbeeck, Hans; Ciais, Philippe; Ringeval, Bruno; Baker, Ian T.; Schaefer, Kevin; Luo, Yiqi; Weng, Ensheng

2012-03-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pools and vulnerability to hydrological change. Use of non-peatland-specific models could lead to bias in modeling studies of peatland-rich regions. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2fluxes at three wetland sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor,sphagnum-dominated bog, over periods between 1999 and 2007. Models consistently overestimated mean annual gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at all three sites. Monthly flux residuals (simulated - observed) were correlated with measured water table for GEP and ER at the two fen sites, but were not consistently correlated with water table at the bog site. Models that inhibited soil respiration under saturated conditions had less mean bias than models that did not. Modeled diurnal cycles agreed well with eddy covariance measurements at fen sites, but overestimated fluxes at the bog site. Eddy covariance GEP and ER at fens were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while models predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP did not depend on water table, while simulated GEP was higher during wet periods. Carbon cycle modeling in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating wetland-specific hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct plant and soil parameterizations in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

High precision NC lathe feeding system rigid-flexible coupling model reduction technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuan, He; Hua, Qingsong; Cheng, Lianjun; Zhang, Hongxin; Zhao, Qinghai; Mao, Xinkai

2017-08-01

This paper proposes the use of dynamic substructure method of reduction of order to achieve effective reduction of feed system for high precision NC lathe feeding system rigid-flexible coupling model, namely the use of ADAMS to establish the rigid flexible coupling simulation model of high precision NC lathe, and then the vibration simulation of the period by using the FD 3D damper is very effective for feed system of bolt connection reduction of multi degree of freedom model. The vibration simulation calculation is more accurate, more quickly.

Improved model of hydrated calcium ion for molecular dynamics simulations using classical biomolecular force fields.

PubMed

Yoo, Jejoong; Wilson, James; Aksimentiev, Aleksei

2016-10-01

Calcium ions (Ca(2+) ) play key roles in various fundamental biological processes such as cell signaling and brain function. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been used to study such interactions, however, the accuracy of the Ca(2+) models provided by the standard MD force fields has not been rigorously tested. Here, we assess the performance of the Ca(2+) models from the most popular classical force fields AMBER and CHARMM by computing the osmotic pressure of model compounds and the free energy of DNA-DNA interactions. In the simulations performed using the two standard models, Ca(2+) ions are seen to form artificial clusters with chloride, acetate, and phosphate species; the osmotic pressure of CaAc2 and CaCl2 solutions is a small fraction of the experimental values for both force fields. Using the standard parameterization of Ca(2+) ions in the simulations of Ca(2+) -mediated DNA-DNA interactions leads to qualitatively wrong outcomes: both AMBER and CHARMM simulations suggest strong inter-DNA attraction whereas, in experiment, DNA molecules repel one another. The artificial attraction of Ca(2+) to DNA phosphate is strong enough to affect the direction of the electric field-driven translocation of DNA through a solid-state nanopore. To address these shortcomings of the standard Ca(2+) model, we introduce a custom model of a hydrated Ca(2+) ion and show that using our model brings the results of the above MD simulations in quantitative agreement with experiment. Our improved model of Ca(2+) can be readily applied to MD simulations of various biomolecular systems, including nucleic acids, proteins and lipid bilayer membranes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biopolymers 105: 752-763, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

“Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system: Assessing the model’s ability to simulate ozone changes due to NOx emission reductions”

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system during the NOx SIP Call time period indicates that the model underestimates the observed ozone decrease in eastern U.S. Utilizing novel cross simulations we are able to separately quantify the impact on ozone predictions stemmin...

Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Golden, Heather E.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Lowery, Mark A.; Conrads, Paul; Bradley, Paul M.

2010-01-01

The McTier Creek watershed is located in the Sand Hills ecoregion of South Carolina and is a small catchment within the Edisto River Basin. Two watershed hydrology models were applied to the McTier Creek watershed as part of a larger scientific investigation to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin. The two models are the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and the grid-based mercury model (GBMM). TOPMODEL uses the variable-source area concept for simulating streamflow, and GBMM uses a spatially explicit modified curve-number approach for simulating streamflow. The hydrologic output from TOPMODEL can be used explicitly to simulate the transport of mercury in separate applications, whereas the hydrology output from GBMM is used implicitly in the simulation of mercury fate and transport in GBMM. The modeling efforts were a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Calibrations of TOPMODEL and GBMM were done independently while using the same meteorological data and the same period of record of observed data. Two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were available for comparison of observed daily mean flow with simulated daily mean flow-station 02172300, McTier Creek near Monetta, South Carolina, and station 02172305, McTier Creek near New Holland, South Carolina. The period of record at the Monetta gage covers a broad range of hydrologic conditions, including a drought and a significant wet period. Calibrating the models under these extreme conditions along with the normal flow conditions included in the record enhances the robustness of the two models. Several quantitative assessments of the goodness of fit between model simulations and the observed daily mean flows were done. These included the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency index, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the bias, and the mean absolute error. In addition, a number of graphical tools were used to assess how well the models captured the characteristics of the observed data at the Monetta and New Holland streamflow-gaging stations. The graphical tools included temporal plots of simulated and observed daily mean flows, flow-duration curves, single-mass curves, and various residual plots. The results indicated that TOPMODEL and GBMM generally produced simulations that reasonably capture the quantity, variability, and timing of the observed streamflow. For the periods modeled, the total volume of simulated daily mean flows as compared to the total volume of the observed daily mean flow from TOPMODEL was within 1 to 5 percent, and the total volume from GBMM was within 1 to 10 percent. A noticeable characteristic of the simulated hydrographs from both models is the complexity of balancing groundwater recession and flow at the streamgage when flows peak and recede rapidly. However, GBMM results indicate that groundwater recession, which affects the receding limb of the hydrograph, was more difficult to estimate with the spatially explicit curve number approach. Although the purpose of this report is not to directly compare both models, given the characteristics of the McTier Creek watershed and the fact that GBMM uses the spatially explicit curve number approach as compared to the variable-source-area concept in TOPMODEL, GBMM was able to capture the flow characteristics reasonably well.

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Garner, Bradley D.; Truini, Margot

2013-01-01

Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-fill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

The Impact of Detailed Snow Physics on the Simulation of Snow Cover and Subsurface Thermodynamics at Continental Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stieglitz, Marc; Ducharne, Agnes; Koster, Randy; Suarez, Max; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The three-layer snow model is coupled to the global catchment-based Land Surface Model (LSM) of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) project, and the combined models are used to simulate the growth and ablation of snow cover over the North American continent for the period 1987-1988. The various snow processes included in the three-layer model, such as snow melting and re-freezing, dynamic changes in snow density, and snow insulating properties, are shown (through a comparison with the corresponding simulation using a much simpler snow model) to lead to an improved simulation of ground thermodynamics on the continental scale.

Spring hydrograph simulation of karstic aquifers: Impacts of variable recharge area, intermediate storage and memory effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Simmons, Craig T.

2017-09-01

A simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model is proposed for the estimation of groundwater balance components in complex karst aquifers. In the proposed model the effects of memory length of different karst flow systems of base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow and also time variation of recharge area (RA) during a hydrological year were investigated. The model consists of three sub-models: soil moisture balance (SMB), epikarst balance (EPB), and groundwater balance (GWB) to simulate the daily spring discharge. The SMB and EPB sub-models utilize the mass conservation equation to compute the variation of moisture storages in the soil cover and epikarst, respectively. The GWB sub-model computes the spring discharge hydrograph through three parallel linear reservoirs for base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow. Three antecedent recharge indices are defined and embedded in the model structure to deal with the memory effect of three karst flow systems to antecedent recharge flow. The Sasan Karst aquifer located in the semi-arid region of south-west Iran with a continuous long-term (21-years) daily meteorological and discharge data are considered to describe model calibration and validation procedures. The effects of temporal variations of RA of karst formations during the hydrological year namely invariant RA, two RA (winter and summer), four RA (seasonal), and twelve RA (monthly) are assessed to determine their impact on the model efficiency. Results indicated that the proposed model with monthly-variant RA is able to reproduce acceptable simulation results based on modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE = -0.83). The results of density-based global sensitivity analysis for dry (June to September) and a wet (October to May) period reveal the dominant influence of RA (with sensitivity indices equal to 0.89 and 0.93, respectively) in spring discharge simulation. The sensitivity of simulated spring discharge to memory effect of different karst formations during the dry period is greater than the wet period. In addition, the results reveal the important role of intermediate-flow system in the hydrological modeling of karst systems during the wet period. Precise estimation of groundwater budgets for a better decision making regarding water supplies from complex karst systems with long memory effect can considerably be improved by use of the proposed model.

Periodic solution for a stochastic non-autonomous competitive Lotka-Volterra model in a polluted environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Daqing; Zhang, Qiumei; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2017-04-01

In this paper, we consider a stochastic non-autonomous competitive Lotka-Volterra model in a polluted environment. We derive sufficient criteria for the existence and global attractivity of the boundary periodic solutions. Furthermore, we obtain conditions for the existence and global attractivity of a nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally we make simulations to illustrate our analytical results.

Application of two hydrologic models with different runoff mechanisms to a hillslope dominated watershed in the northeastern US: A comparison of HSPF and SMR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.S.; Coon, W.F.; Mehta, V.K.; Steenhuis, T.S.; Brooks, E.S.; Boll, J.

2003-01-01

Differences in the simulation of hydrologic processes by watershed models directly affect the accuracy of results. Surface runoff generation can be simulated as either: (1) infiltration-excess (or Hortonian) overland flow, or (2) saturation-excess overland flow. This study compared the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) and the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) models, each representing one of these mechanisms. These two models were applied to a 102 km2 watershed in the upper part of the Irondequoit Creek basin in central New York State over a seven-year simulation period. The models differed in both the complexity of simulating snowmelt and baseflow processes as well as the detail in which the geographic information was preserved by each model. Despite their differences in structure and representation of hydrologic processes, the two models simulated streamflow with almost equal accuracy. Since streamflow is an integral response and depends mainly on the watershed water balance, this was not unexpected. Model efficiency values for the seven-year simulation period were 0.67 and 0.65 for SMR and HSPF, respectively. HSPF simulated winter streamflow slightly better than SMR as a result of its complex snowmelt routine, whereas SMR simulated summer flows better than HSPF as a result of its runoff and baseflow processes. An important difference between model results was the ability to predict the spatial distribution of soil moisture content. HSPF aggregates soil moisture content, which is generally related to a specific pervious land unit across the entire watershed, whereas SMR predictions of moisture content distribution are geographically specific and matched field observations reasonably well. Important is that the saturated area was predicted well by SMR and confirmed the validity of using saturation-excess mechanisms for this hillslope dominated watershed. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeung, Chiu W.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10.74 percent at Imong River. Month-end reservoir volumes simulated by the reservoir water-balance model for both calibration and verification periods compared closely with measured reservoir volumes. Errors for the calibration periods ranged from 4.51 percent [208.7 acre-feet (acre-ft) or 68.0 million gallons (Mgal)] to -5.90 percent (-317.8 acre-ft or -103.6 Mgal). For the verification periods, errors ranged from 1.69 percent (103.5 acre-ft or 33.7 Mgal) to -4.60 percent (-178.7 acre-ft or -58.2 Mgal). Monthly simulation bias ranged from -0.19 percent for the calibration period to -0.98 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from -0.37 to -1.12 percent, respectively. Relatively small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir volume.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Effects of tillage and application rate on atrazine transport to subsurface drainage: Evaluation of RZWQM using a six-year field study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malone, Robert W.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Ma, Liwang; Kanwar, Rameshwar S.; Pederson, Carl H.; Heilman, Philip

2014-01-01

Well tested agricultural system models can improve our understanding of the water quality effects of management practices under different conditions. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) has been tested under a variety of conditions. However, the current model's ability to simulate pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow over a long term period under different tillage systems and application rates is not clear. Therefore, we calibrated and tested RZWQM using six years of data from Nashua, Iowa. In this experiment, atrazine was spring applied at 2.8 (1990–1992) and 0.6 kg/ha/yr (1993–1995) to two 0.4 ha plots with different tillage (till and no-till). The observed and simulated average annual flow weighted atrazine concentrations (FWAC) in subsurface drain flow from the no-till plot were 3.7 and 3.2 μg/L, respectively for the period with high atrazine application rates, and 0.8 and 0.9 μg/L, respectively for the period with low application rates. The 1990–1992 observed average annual FWAC difference between the no-till and tilled plot was 2.4 μg/L while the simulated difference was 2.1 μg/L. These observed and simulated differences for 1993–1995 were 0.1 and 0.1 μg/L, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliffe model performance statistic (EF) for cumulative atrazine flux to subsurface drain flow was 0.93 for the no-till plot testing years (1993–1995), which is comparable to other recent model tests. The value of EF is 1.0 when simulated data perfectly match observed data. The order of selected parameter sensitivity for RZWQM simulated FWAC was atrazine partition coefficient > number of macropores > atrazine half life in soil > soil hydraulic conductivity. Simulations from 1990 to 1995 with four different atrazine application rates applied at a constant rate throughout the simulation period showed concentrations in drain flow for the no-till plot to be twice those of the tilled plot. The differences were more pronounced in the early simulation period (1990–1992), partly because of the characteristics of macropore flow during large storms. The results suggest that RZWQM is a promising tool to study pesticide transport to subsurface drain flow under different tillage systems and application rates over several years, the concentrations of atrazine in drain flow can be higher with no-till than tilled soil over a range of atrazine application rates, and atrazine concentrations in drain flow are sensitive to the macropore flow characteristics under different tillage systems and rainfall timing and intensity.

Numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system of the Kitsap Peninsula, west-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2016-05-05

A groundwater-flow model was developed to improve understanding of water resources on the Kitsap Peninsula. The Kitsap Peninsula is in the Puget Sound lowland of west-central Washington, is bounded by Puget Sound on the east and by Hood Canal on the west, and covers an area of about 575 square miles. The peninsula encompasses all of Kitsap County, Mason County north of Hood Canal, and part of Pierce County west of Puget Sound. The peninsula is surrounded by saltwater, and the hydrologic setting is similar to that of an island. The study area is underlain by a thick sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits that overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the central part of the study area. Twelve hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit form the basis of the groundwater-flow model.Groundwater flow on the Kitsap Peninsula was simulated using the groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW‑NWT. The finite difference model grid comprises 536 rows, 362 columns, and 14 layers. Each model cell has a horizontal dimension of 500 by 500 feet, and the model contains a total of 1,227,772 active cells. Groundwater flow was simulated for transient conditions. Transient conditions were simulated for January 1985–December 2012 using annual stress periods for 1985–2004 and monthly stress periods for 2005–2012. During model calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences between measured and simulated groundwater levels and stream baseflows. As calibrated to transient conditions, the model has a standard deviation for heads and flows of 47.04 feet and 2.46 cubic feet per second, respectively.Simulated inflow to the model area for the 2005–2012 period from precipitation and secondary recharge was 585,323 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) (93 percent of total simulated inflow ignoring changes in storage), and simulated inflow from stream and lake leakage was 43,905 acre-ft/yr (7 percent of total simulated inflow). Simulated outflow from the model primarily was through discharge to streams, lakes, springs, seeps, and Puget Sound (594,595 acre-ft/yr; 95 percent of total simulated outflow excluding changes in storage) and through withdrawals from wells (30,761 acre-ft/yr; 5 percent of total simulated outflow excluding changes in storage).Six scenarios were formulated with input from project stakeholders and were simulated using the calibrated model to provide representative examples of how the model could be used to evaluate the effects on water levels and stream baseflows of potential changes in groundwater withdrawals, in consumptive use, and in recharge. These included simulations of a steady-state system, no-pumping and return flows, 15-percent increase in current withdrawals in all wells, 80-percent decrease in outdoor water to simulate effects of conservation efforts, 15-percent decrease in recharge from precipitation to simulate a drought, and particle tracking to determine flow paths.Changes in water-level altitudes and baseflow amounts vary depending on the stress applied to the system in these various scenarios. Reducing recharge by 15 percent between 2005 and 2012 had the largest effect, with water-level altitudes declining throughout the model domain and baseflow amounts decreasing by as much as 18 percent compared to baseline conditions. Changes in pumping volumes had a smaller effect on the model. Removing all pumping and resulting return flows caused increased water-level altitudes in many areas and increased baseflow amounts of between 1 and 3 percent.

A Global Three-Dimensional Radiation Hydrodynamic Simulation of a Self-Gravitating Accretion Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, Rebecca; Vogeley, Michael S.; McMillan, Stephen; Boyd, Patricia

2018-01-01

We present three-dimensional, radiation hydrodynamic simulations of initially thin accretion disks with self-gravity using the grid-based code PLUTO. We produce simulated light curves and spectral energy distributions and compare to observational data of X-ray binary (XRB) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability. These simulations are of interest for modeling the role of radiation in accretion physics across decades of mass and frequency. In particular, the characteristics of the time variability in various bandwidths can probe the timescales over which different physical processes dominate the accretion flow. For example, in the case of some XRBs, superorbital periods much longer than the companion orbital period have been observed. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) calculations have shown that irradiation-driven warping could be the mechanism underlying these long periods. In the case of AGN, irradiation-driven warping is also predicted to occur in addition to strong outflows originating from thermal and radiation pressure driving forces, which are important processes in understanding feedback and star formation in active galaxies. We compare our simulations to various toy models via traditional time series analysis of our synthetic and observed light curves.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF PERIODIC PULSED REACTOR WITH MOVING GEOMETRY PARTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Yan; Gohar, Yousry

2015-11-01

In a periodic pulsed reactor, the reactor state varies periodically from slightly subcritical to slightly prompt supercritical for producing periodic power pulses. Such periodic state change is accomplished by a periodic movement of specific reactor parts, such as control rods or reflector sections. The analysis of such reactor is difficult to perform with the current reactor physics computer programs. Based on past experience, the utilization of the point kinetics approximations gives considerable errors in predicting the magnitude and the shape of the power pulse if the reactor has significantly different neutron life times in different zones. To accurately simulate themore » dynamics of this type of reactor, a Monte Carlo procedure using the transfer function TRCL/TR of the MCNP/MCNPX computer programs is utilized to model the movable reactor parts. In this paper, two algorithms simulating the geometry part movements during a neutron history tracking have been developed. Several test cases have been developed to evaluate these procedures. The numerical test cases have shown that the developed algorithms can be utilized to simulate the reactor dynamics with movable geometry parts.« less

Evaluation of large-eddy simulations forced with mesoscale model output for a multi-week period during a measurement campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, Rieke; Moseley, Christopher; Böske, Lennart Nils; Muppa, Shravan Kumar; Maurer, Vera; Raasch, Siegfried; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-06-01

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of a multi-week period during the HD(CP)2 (High-Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction) Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) conducted in Germany are evaluated with respect to mean boundary layer quantities and turbulence statistics. Two LES models are used in a semi-idealized setup through forcing with mesoscale model output to account for the synoptic-scale conditions. Evaluation is performed based on the HOPE observations. The mean boundary layer characteristics like the boundary layer depth are in a principal agreement with observations. Simulating shallow-cumulus layers in agreement with the measurements poses a challenge for both LES models. Variance profiles agree satisfactorily with lidar measurements. The results depend on how the forcing data stemming from mesoscale model output are constructed. The mean boundary layer characteristics become less sensitive if the averaging domain for the forcing is large enough to filter out mesoscale fluctuations.

Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua; Thornton, Peter E

2014-01-01

Microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is one of the fundamental processes of global carbon cycling and it determines the magnitude of microbial biomass in soils. Mechanistic understanding of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls is important for to improve Earth system models ability to simulate carbon-climate feedbacks. Although microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is broadly considered to be an important parameter, it really comprises two separate physiological processes: one-time assimilation efficiency and time-dependent microbial maintenance energy. Representing of these two mechanisms is crucial to more accurately simulate carbon cycling in soils. In this study, amore » simple modeling framework was developed to evaluate the substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon using a new term: microbial annual active period (the length of microbes remaining active in one year). Substrate quality has a positive effect on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: higher substrate quality (lower C:N ratio) leads to higher ratio of microbial carbon to soil organic carbon and vice versa. Increases in microbial annual active period from zero stimulate microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon; however, when microbial annual active period is longer than an optimal threshold, increasing this period decreases microbial biomass. The simulated ratios of soil microbial biomass to soil organic carbon are reasonably consistent with a recently compiled global dataset at the biome-level. The modeling framework of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls developed in this study offers an applicable ways to incorporate microbial contributions to the carbon cycling into Earth system models for simulating carbon-climate feedbacks and to explain global patterns of microbial biomass.« less

Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

Choosing appropriate analysis methods for cluster randomised cross-over trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Morgan, Katy E; Forbes, Andrew B; Keogh, Ruth H; Jairath, Vipul; Kahan, Brennan C

2017-01-30

In cluster randomised cross-over (CRXO) trials, clusters receive multiple treatments in a randomised sequence over time. In such trials, there is usual correlation between patients in the same cluster. In addition, within a cluster, patients in the same period may be more similar to each other than to patients in other periods. We demonstrate that it is necessary to account for these correlations in the analysis to obtain correct Type I error rates. We then use simulation to compare different methods of analysing a binary outcome from a two-period CRXO design. Our simulations demonstrated that hierarchical models without random effects for period-within-cluster, which do not account for any extra within-period correlation, performed poorly with greatly inflated Type I errors in many scenarios. In scenarios where extra within-period correlation was present, a hierarchical model with random effects for cluster and period-within-cluster only had correct Type I errors when there were large numbers of clusters; with small numbers of clusters, the error rate was inflated. We also found that generalised estimating equations did not give correct error rates in any scenarios considered. An unweighted cluster-level summary regression performed best overall, maintaining an error rate close to 5% for all scenarios, although it lost power when extra within-period correlation was present, especially for small numbers of clusters. Results from our simulation study show that it is important to model both levels of clustering in CRXO trials, and that any extra within-period correlation should be accounted for. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land use data, these results are compared to the equivalent investigations performed in CMIP5 with the CLM4/CESM1 model. We find the role of land use and land cover change in a changing climate is strongly dependent on both of these.

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

EPA Science Inventory

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990–2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting WRF) simulations and internally ...

Validation of Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for Japanese Crustal Earthquakes by the Recipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaki, A.; Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Miyake, H.; Fujiwara, H.

2015-12-01

The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan has organized the broadband ground motion simulation method into a standard procedure called the "recipe" (HERP, 2009). In the recipe, the source rupture is represented by the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). The broadband ground motion time histories are computed by a hybrid approach: the 3-D finite-difference method (Aoi et al. 2004) and the stochastic Green's function method (Dan and Sato, 1998; Dan et al. 2000) for the long- (> 1　s) and short-period (< 1 s) components, respectively, using the 3-D velocity structure model. As the engineering significance of scenario earthquake ground motion prediction is increasing, thorough verification and validation are required for the simulation methods. This study presents the self-validation of the recipe for two MW6.6 crustal events in Japan, the 2000 Tottori and 2004 Chuetsu (Niigata) earthquakes. We first compare the simulated velocity time series with the observation. Main features of the velocity waveforms, such as the near-fault pulses and the large later phases on deep sediment sites are well reproduced by the simulations. Then we evaluate 5% damped pseudo acceleration spectra (PSA) in the framework of the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP) validation (Dreger et al. 2015). The validation results are generally acceptable in the period range 0.1 - 10 s, whereas those in the shortest period range (0.01-0.1 s) are less satisfactory. We also evaluate the simulations with the 1-D velocity structure models used in the SCEC BBP validation exercise. Although the goodness-of-fit parameters for PSA do not significantly differ from those for the 3-D velocity structure model, noticeable differences in velocity waveforms are observed. Our results suggest the importance of 1) well-constrained 3-D velocity structure model for broadband ground motion simulations and 2) evaluation of time series of ground motion as well as response spectra.

A Spiking Neural Network Model of the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus on the SpiNNaker Machine

PubMed Central

Sen-Bhattacharya, Basabdatta; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Balassa, Lorinc; Bhattacharya, Akash; Stokes, Alan B.; Rowley, Andrew; Sugiarto, Indar; Furber, Steve

2017-01-01

We present a spiking neural network model of the thalamic Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN) developed on SpiNNaker, which is a state-of-the-art digital neuromorphic hardware built with very-low-power ARM processors. The parallel, event-based data processing in SpiNNaker makes it viable for building massively parallel neuro-computational frameworks. The LGN model has 140 neurons representing a “basic building block” for larger modular architectures. The motivation of this work is to simulate biologically plausible LGN dynamics on SpiNNaker. Synaptic layout of the model is consistent with biology. The model response is validated with existing literature reporting entrainment in steady state visually evoked potentials (SSVEP)—brain oscillations corresponding to periodic visual stimuli recorded via electroencephalography (EEG). Periodic stimulus to the model is provided by: a synthetic spike-train with inter-spike-intervals in the range 10–50 Hz at a resolution of 1 Hz; and spike-train output from a state-of-the-art electronic retina subjected to a light emitting diode flashing at 10, 20, and 40 Hz, simulating real-world visual stimulus to the model. The resolution of simulation is 0.1 ms to ensure solution accuracy for the underlying differential equations defining Izhikevichs neuron model. Under this constraint, 1 s of model simulation time is executed in 10 s real time on SpiNNaker; this is because simulations on SpiNNaker work in real time for time-steps dt ⩾ 1 ms. The model output shows entrainment with both sets of input and contains harmonic components of the fundamental frequency. However, suppressing the feed-forward inhibition in the circuit produces subharmonics within the gamma band (>30 Hz) implying a reduced information transmission fidelity. These model predictions agree with recent lumped-parameter computational model-based predictions, using conventional computers. Scalability of the framework is demonstrated by a multi-node architecture consisting of three “nodes,” where each node is the “basic building block” LGN model. This 420 neuron model is tested with synthetic periodic stimulus at 10 Hz to all the nodes. The model output is the average of the outputs from all nodes, and conforms to the above-mentioned predictions of each node. Power consumption for model simulation on SpiNNaker is ≪1 W. PMID:28848380

A Spiking Neural Network Model of the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus on the SpiNNaker Machine.

PubMed

Sen-Bhattacharya, Basabdatta; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Balassa, Lorinc; Bhattacharya, Akash; Stokes, Alan B; Rowley, Andrew; Sugiarto, Indar; Furber, Steve

2017-01-01

We present a spiking neural network model of the thalamic Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN) developed on SpiNNaker, which is a state-of-the-art digital neuromorphic hardware built with very-low-power ARM processors. The parallel, event-based data processing in SpiNNaker makes it viable for building massively parallel neuro-computational frameworks. The LGN model has 140 neurons representing a "basic building block" for larger modular architectures. The motivation of this work is to simulate biologically plausible LGN dynamics on SpiNNaker. Synaptic layout of the model is consistent with biology. The model response is validated with existing literature reporting entrainment in steady state visually evoked potentials (SSVEP)-brain oscillations corresponding to periodic visual stimuli recorded via electroencephalography (EEG). Periodic stimulus to the model is provided by: a synthetic spike-train with inter-spike-intervals in the range 10-50 Hz at a resolution of 1 Hz; and spike-train output from a state-of-the-art electronic retina subjected to a light emitting diode flashing at 10, 20, and 40 Hz, simulating real-world visual stimulus to the model. The resolution of simulation is 0.1 ms to ensure solution accuracy for the underlying differential equations defining Izhikevichs neuron model. Under this constraint, 1 s of model simulation time is executed in 10 s real time on SpiNNaker; this is because simulations on SpiNNaker work in real time for time-steps dt ⩾ 1 ms. The model output shows entrainment with both sets of input and contains harmonic components of the fundamental frequency. However, suppressing the feed-forward inhibition in the circuit produces subharmonics within the gamma band (>30 Hz) implying a reduced information transmission fidelity. These model predictions agree with recent lumped-parameter computational model-based predictions, using conventional computers. Scalability of the framework is demonstrated by a multi-node architecture consisting of three "nodes," where each node is the "basic building block" LGN model. This 420 neuron model is tested with synthetic periodic stimulus at 10 Hz to all the nodes. The model output is the average of the outputs from all nodes, and conforms to the above-mentioned predictions of each node. Power consumption for model simulation on SpiNNaker is ≪1 W.

A 30m resolution hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.; Johnson, K.; Wing, O.

2016-12-01

In this paper we describe the development and validation of a 30m resolution hydrodynamic model covering the entire conterminous United States. The model can be used to simulate inundation and water depths resulting from either return period flows (so equivalent to FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps), hindcasts of historic events or forecasts of future river flow from a rainfall-runoff or land surface model. As topographic data the model uses the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset or NED, and return period flows are generated using a regional flood frequency analysis methodology (Smith et al., 2015. Worldwide flood frequency estimation. Water Resources Research, 51, 539-553). Flood defences nationwide are represented using data from the US Army Corps of Engineers. Using these data flows are simulated using an explicit and highly efficient finite difference solution of the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations identical to that implemented in the LISFLOOD-FP model. Even with this efficient numerical solution a simulation at this resolution over a whole continent is a huge undertaking, and a variety of High Performance Computing technologies therefore need to be employed to make these simulations possible. The size of the output datasets is also challenging, and to solve this we use the GIS and graphical display functions of Google Earth Engine to facilitate easy visualisation and interrogation of the results. The model is validated against the return period flood extents contained in FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps and real flood event data from the Texas 2015 flood event which was hindcast using the model. Finally, we present an application of the model to the Upper Mississippi river basin where simulations both with and without flood defences are used to determine floodplain areas benefitting from protection in order to quantify the benefits of flood defence spending.

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

2009-08-01

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

An integrated fuzzy-based advanced eutrophication simulation model to develop the best management scenarios for a river basin.

PubMed

Srinivas, Rallapalli; Singh, Ajit Pratap

2018-03-01

Assessment of water quality status of a river with respect to its discharge has become prerequisite to sustainable river basin management. The present paper develops an integrated model for simulating and evaluating strategies for water quality management in a river basin management by controlling point source pollutant loadings and operations of multi-purpose projects. Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP version 8.0) has been used for modeling the transport of pollutant loadings and their impact on water quality in the river. The study presents a novel approach of integrating fuzzy set theory with an "advanced eutrophication" model to simulate the transmission and distribution of several interrelated water quality variables and their bio-physiochemical processes in an effective manner in the Ganges river basin, India. After calibration, simulated values are compared with the observed values to validate the model's robustness. Fuzzy technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution (F-TOPSIS) has been used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the water quality simulation results. The model also simulates five different scenarios for pollution reduction, to determine the maximum pollutant loadings during monsoon and dry periods. The final results clearly indicate how modeled reduction in the rate of wastewater discharge has reduced impacts of pollutants in the downstream. Scenarios suggesting a river discharge rate of 1500 m 3 /s during the lean period, in addition to 25 and 50% reduction in the load rate, are found to be the most effective option to restore quality of river Ganges. Thus, the model serves as an important hydrologic tool to the policy makers by suggesting appropriate remediation action plans.

Simulating reservoir leakage in ground-water models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenske, J.P.; Leake, S.A.; Prudic, David E.

1997-01-01

Leakage to ground water resulting from the expansion and contraction of reservoirs cannot be easily simulated by most ground-water flow models. An algorithm, entitled the Reservoir Package, was developed for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) three-dimensional finite-difference modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW. The Reservoir Package automates the process of specifying head-dependent boundary cells, eliminating the need to divide a simulation into many stress periods while improving accuracy in simulating changes in ground-water levels resulting from transient reservoir stage. Leakage between the reservoir and the underlying aquifer is simulated for each model cell corrresponding to the inundated area by multiplying the head difference between the reservoir and the aquifer with the hydraulic conductance of the reservoir-bed sediments.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, Johann H.; Bard, Edouard; Baroni, Mélanie; Braconnot, Pascale; Cao, Jian; Chini, Louise P.; Egorova, Tania; Evans, Michael; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Goosse, Hugues; Hurtt, George C.; Joos, Fortunat; Kaplan, Jed O.; Khodri, Myriam; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Krivova, Natalie; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lorenz, Stephan J.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Man, Wenmin; Maycock, Amanda C.; Meinshausen, Malte; Moberg, Anders; Muscheler, Raimund; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Otto-Bliesner, Bette I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pongratz, Julia; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Schmidt, Hauke; Schmutz, Werner; Schurer, Andrew; Shapiro, Alexander I.; Sigl, Michael; Smerdon, Jason E.; Solanki, Sami K.; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Wagner, Sebastian; Wu, Chi-Ju; Leng Yeo, Kok; Zanchettin, Davide; Zhang, Qiong; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-11-01

The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

Investigation of Periodic-Disturbance Identification and Rejection in Spacecraft

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

linear theory. Therefore, it is of interest to examine its efficacy on the current nonlinear spacecraft model. In addition, the robustness of the...School, Monterey, California 93943 Spacecraft periodic-disturbance rejection using a realistic spacecraft hardware simulator and its associated models...is investigated. The effectiveness of the dipole-type disturbance rejection filter on the current realistic nonlinear rigid-body spacecraft model is

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

A Doppler Transient Model Based on the Laplace Wavelet and Spectrum Correlation Assessment for Locomotive Bearing Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W.

2013-01-01

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully. PMID:24253191

A Doppler transient model based on the laplace wavelet and spectrum correlation assessment for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis.

PubMed

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W

2013-11-18

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Brandywine Creek subbasin of the Christina River basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 mi2 (square miles) in Pennsylvania and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Brandywine Creek is the largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 327 mi2. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on streamwater quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at six sites in the Brandywine Creek subbasin and five sites in the other subbasins.The HSPF model for the Brandywine Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 35 reaches draining areas that ranged from 0.6 to 18 mi2. Three of the reaches contain regulated reservoir. Eleven different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the basin are forested, agricultural, residential, and urban. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data for eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream-flow-measurement stations for the period of January 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data for three National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.7 to 3.9 percent for the nearly 5-year period at the eight calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 237 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -14.0 to 18.8 percent and the overall error for the 5-year period was 1.0 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the eight calibration sites for total volume, low-flow-recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using monitoring data collected at six USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for two to six individual storms in 1998 at each of the six monitoring sites indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the basin. Duration curves for simulated and reported sediment concentration at Brandywine Creek at Wilmington, Del., are similar, indicating model performance is better when evaluated over longer periods than when evaluated on individual storm events.

Sensitivity experiments of a regional climate model to the different convective schemes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armand J, K. M.

2017-12-01

In this study, version 4 of the regional climate model (RegCM4) is used to perform 6 years simulation including one year for spin-up (from January 2001 to December 2006) over Central Africa using four convective schemes: The Emmanuel scheme (MIT), the Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schulbert closure assumption (GAS), the Grell scheme with Fritsch-Chappell closure assumption (GFC) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme (Kuo). We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate precipitation, surface temperature, wind and aerosols optical depth. Emphasis in the model results were made in December-January-February (DJF) and July-August-September (JAS) periods. Two subregions have been identified for more specific analysis namely: zone 1 which corresponds to the sahel region mainly classified as desert and steppe and zone 2 which is a region spanning the tropical rain forest and is characterised by a bimodal rain regime. We found that regardless of periods or simulated parameters, MIT scheme generally has a tendency to overestimate. The GAS scheme is more suitable in simulating the aforementioned parameters, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitations everywhere over the study domain irrespective of the season. In JAS, model results are similar in the representation of regional wind circulation. Apart from the MIT scheme, all the convective schemes give the same trends in aerosols optical depth simulations. Additional experiment reveals that the use of BATS instead of Zeng scheme to calculate ocean flux appears to improve the quality of the model simulations.

Prebiotic effect of fructooligosaccharide in the simulator of the human intestinal microbial ecosystem (SHIME® model).

PubMed

Sivieri, Katia; Morales, Martha L Villarreal; Saad, Susana M I; Adorno, Maria A Tallarico; Sakamoto, Isabel Kimiko; Rossi, Elizeu A

2014-08-01

Maintaining "gut health" is a goal for scientists throughout the world. Therefore, microbiota management models for testing probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics have been developed. The SHIME(®) model was used to study the effect of fructooligosaccharide (FOS) on the fermentation pattern of the colon microbiota. Initially, an inoculum prepared from human feces was introduced into the reactor vessels and stabilized over 2 weeks using a culture medium. This stabilization period was followed by a 2-week control period during which the microbiota was monitored. The microbiota was then subjected to a 4-week treatment period by adding 5 g/day-1 FOS to vessel one (the "stomach" compartment). Plate counts, Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE), short-chain fatty acid (SCFA), and ammonium analyses were used to observe the influence of FOS treatment in simulated colon compartments. A significant increase (P<.01) in the Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. populations was observed during the treatment period. The DGGE obtained showed the overall microbial community was changed in the ascending colon compartment of the SHIME reactor. FOS induced increase of the SCFA concentration (P<.05) during the treatment period, mainly due to significant increased levels of acetic and butyric acids. However, ammonium concentrations increased during the same period (P<.01). This study indicates the usefulness of in vitro methods that simulate the colon region as part of research towards the improvement of human health.

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Periodic Nutrient Supply on Pathways of Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Mary-Elena

1998-01-01

A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.

Influence of the Aral Sea negative water balance on its seasonal circulation and ventilation patterns: use of a 3d hydrodynamic model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirjacobs, D.; Grégoire, M.; Delhez, E.; Nihoul, J.

2003-04-01

Within the context of the EU INCO-COPERNICUS program "Desertification in the Aral Sea Region: A study of the Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts" (Contract IAC2-CT-2000-10023), a large-scale 3D hydrodynamic model was adapted to address specifically the macroscale processes affecting the Aral Sea water circulation and ventilation. The particular goal of this research is to simulate the effect of lasting negative water balance on the 3D seasonal circulation, temperature, salinity and water-mixing fields of the Aral Sea. The original Aral Sea seasonal hydrodynamism is simulated with the average seasonal forcings corresponding to the period from 1956 to 1960. This first investigation concerns a period of relative stability of the water balance, before the beginning of the drying process. The consequences of the drying process on the hydrodynamic of the Sea will be studied by comparing this first results with the simulation representing the average situation for the years 1981 to 1985, a very low river flow period. For both simulation periods, the forcing considered are the seasonal fluctuations of wind fields, precipitation, evaporation, river discharge and salinity, cloud cover, air temperature and humidity. The meteorological forcings were adapted to the common optimum one-month temporal resolution of the available data sets. Monthly mean kinetic energy flux and surface tensions were calculated from daily ECMWF wind data. Monthly in situ precipitation, surface air temperature and humidity fields were interpolated from data obtained from the Russian Hydrological and Meteorological Institute. Monthly water discharge and average salinity of the river water were considered for both Amu Darya and Syr Darya river over each simulation periods. The water mass conservation routines allowed the simulation of a changing coastline by taking into account local drying and flooding events of particular grid points. Preliminary barotropic runs were realised (for the 1951-1960 situation, before drying up began) in order to get a first experience of the behaviour of the hydrodynamic model. These first runs provide results about the evolution of the following state variables: elevation of the sea surface, 3D fields of vertical and horizontal flows, 2D fields of average horizontal flows and finally the 3D fields of turbulent kinetic energy. The mean seasonal salinity and temperature fields (in-situ data gathered by the Russian Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) are available for the two simulated periods and will allow a first validation of the hydrodynamic model. Various satellites products were identified, collected and processed in the frame of this research project and will be used for the validation of the model outputs. Seasonal level changes measurements derived from water table change will serve for water balance validation and sea surface temperature for hydrodynamics validation.

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

2011-01-01

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

Impact of soil moisture on regional spectral model simulations for South America

Treesearch

Shyh-Chin Chen; John Roads

2005-01-01

A regional simulation using the regional spectral model (RSM) with 50-km grid space increment over South America is described. NCEP/NCAR 28 vertical levels T62 spectral resolution reanalyses were used to initialize and force the regional model for a two-year period from March 1997 through March 1999. Initially, the RSM had a severe drying trend in the soil moisture...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

Statistical downscaling of summer precipitation over northwestern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palomino Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba Machado, Samir; Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Sonia; Castro Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban Parra, María

2015-04-01

In this study a statistical downscaling (SD) model using Principal Component Regression (PCR) for simulating summer precipitation in Colombia during the period 1950-2005, has been developed, and climate projections during the 2071-2100 period by applying the obtained SD model have been obtained. For these ends the Principal Components (PCs) of the SLP reanalysis data from NCEP were used as predictor variables, while the observed gridded summer precipitation was the predictand variable. Period 1950-1993 was utilized for calibration and 1994-2010 for validation. The Bootstrap with replacement was applied to provide estimations of the statistical errors. All models perform reasonably well at regional scales, and the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between predicted and observed gridded precipitation values show high values (between 0.5 and 0.93) along Andes range, north and north Pacific of Colombia. Additionally, the ability of the MIROC5 GCM to simulate the summer precipitation in Colombia, for present climate (1971-2005), has been analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. The simulation obtained by this GCM strongly overestimates the precipitation along a horizontal sector through the center of Colombia, especially important at the east and west of this country. However, the SD model applied to the SLP of the GCM shows its ability to faithfully reproduce the rainfall field. Finally, in order to get summer precipitation projections in Colombia for the period 1971-2100, the downscaled model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, has been applied to the SLP output from MIROC5 model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes estimated by the SD models are not significant under the RCP2.6 scenario, while for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios a significant increase of precipitation appears regard to the present values in all the regions, reaching around the 27% in northern Colombia region under the RCP8.5 scenario. Keywords: Statistical downscaling, precipitation, Principal Component Regression, climate change, Colombia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Modelling flow and heat transfer through unsaturated chalk - Validation with experimental data from the ground surface to the aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéry, Dominique; Amraoui, Nadia; Noyer, Marie-Luce

2018-01-01

During the winter and spring of 2000-2001, large floods occurred in northern France (Somme River Basin) and southern England (Patcham area of Brighton) in valleys that are developed on Chalk outcrops. The floods durations were particularly long (more than 3 months in the Somme Basin) and caused significant damage in both countries. To improve the understanding of groundwater flooding in Chalk catchments, an experimental site was set up in the Hallue basin, which is located in the Somme River Basin (France). Unsaturated fractured chalk formation overlying the Chalk aquifer was monitored to understand its reaction to long and heavy rainfall events when it reaches a near saturation state. The water content and soil temperature were monitored to a depth of 8 m, and the matrix pressure was monitored down to the water table, 26.5 m below ground level. The monitoring extended over a 2.5-year period (2006-2008) under natural conditions and during two periods when heavy, artificial infiltration was induced. The objective of the paper is to describe a vertical numerical flow model based on Richards' equation using these data that was developed to simulate infiltrating rainwater flow from the ground surface to the saturated aquifer. The MARTHE computer code, which models the unsaturated-saturated continuum, was adapted to reproduce the monitored high saturation periods. Composite constitutive functions (hydraulic conductivity-saturation and pressure-saturation) that integrate the increase in hydraulic conductivity near saturation and extra available porosity resulting from fractures were introduced into the code. Using these composite constitutive functions, the model was able to accurately simulate the water contents and pressures at all depths over the entire monitored period, including the infiltration tests. The soil temperature was also accurately simulated at all depths, except during the infiltrations tests, which contributes to the model validation. The model was used to calculate the aquifer recharge over a long period that included droughts and floods. The calculated recharge is realistic as it makes it possible to simulate the corresponding monitored groundwater level data, which increases confidence in the modelling approach.

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

Evaluation of near surface ozone and particulate matter in air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher-resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000–2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method’s use for future air quality projections. This paper shows that if emissions inputs and coarse-scale meteorological inputs are reasonably accurate, then air quality can be simulated with acceptable accuracy even wi

Using Simulation to Interpret a Discrete Time Survival Model in a Complex Biological System: Fertility and Lameness in Dairy Cows

PubMed Central

Hudson, Christopher D.; Huxley, Jonathan N.; Green, Martin J.

2014-01-01

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd’s incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd’s lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level. PMID:25101997

Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

PubMed

Hudson, Christopher D; Huxley, Jonathan N; Green, Martin J

2014-01-01

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level.

High-resolution simulation of deep pencil beam surveys - analysis of quasi-periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, A. G.; Buchert, T.

1993-07-01

We carry out pencil beam constructions in a high-resolution simulation of the large-scale structure of galaxies. The initial density fluctuations are taken to have a truncated power spectrum. All the models have {OMEGA} = 1. As an example we present the results for the case of "Hot-Dark-Matter" (HDM) initial conditions with scale-free n = 1 power index on large scales as a representative of models with sufficient large-scale power. We use an analytic approximation for particle trajectories of a self-gravitating dust continuum and apply a local dynamical biasing of volume elements to identify luminous matter in the model. Using this method, we are able to resolve formally a simulation box of 1200h^-1^ Mpc (e.g. for HDM initial conditions) down to the scale of galactic halos using 2160^3^ particles. We consider this as the minimal resolution necessary for a sensible simulation of deep pencil beam data. Pencil beam probes are taken for a given epoch using the parameters of observed beams. In particular, our analysis concentrates on the detection of a quasi-periodicity in the beam probes using several different methods. The resulting beam ensembles are analyzed statistically using number distributions, pair-count histograms, unnormalized pair-counts, power spectrum analysis and trial-period folding. Periodicities are classified according to their significance level in the power spectrum of the beams. The simulation is designed for application to parameter studies which prepare future observational projects. We find that a large percentage of the beams show quasi- periodicities with periods which cluster at a certain length scale. The periods found range between one and eight times the cutoff length in the initial fluctuation spectrum. At significance levels similar to those of the data of Broadhurst et al. (1990), we find about 15% of the pencil beams to show periodicities, about 30% of which are around the mean separation of rich clusters, while the distribution of scales reaches values of more than 200h^-1^ Mpc. The detection of periodicities larger than the typical void size must not be due to missing of "walls" (like the so called "Great Wall" seen in the CfA catalogue of galaxies), but can be due to different clustering properties of galaxies along the beams.

A guide for using the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blainey, Joan B.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Hill, Mary C.

2006-01-01

This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assum

Large Eddy Simulations of Continental Boundary Layer Clouds Observed during the RACORO Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, S.; Fridlind, A. M.; Lin, W.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Toto, T.; Liu, Y.

2013-12-01

Three cases of boundary layer clouds are analyzed in the FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) project, based on continental boundary-layer-cloud observations during the RACORO Campaign [Routine Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF) Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations] at the ARM Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The three 60-hour case study periods are selected to capture the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary-layer cloud systems under a range of conditions, intentionally including those that are relatively more mixed or transitional in nature versus being of a purely canonical type. Multi-modal and temporally varying aerosol number size distribution profiles are derived from aircraft observations. Large eddy simulations (LESs) are performed for the three case study periods using the GISS Distributed Hydrodynamic Aerosol and Radiative Modeling Application (DHARMA) model and the WRF-FASTER model, which is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model implemented with forcing ingestion and other functions to constitute a flexible LES. The two LES models commonly capture the significant transitions of cloud-topped boundary layers in the three periods: diurnal evolution of cumulus layers repeating over multiple days, nighttime evolution/daytime diminution of thick stratus, and daytime breakup of stratus and stratocumulus clouds. Simulated transitions of thermodynamic structures of the cloud-topped boundary layers are examined by balloon-borne soundings and ground-based remote sensors. Aircraft observations are then used to statistically evaluate the predicted cloud droplet number size distributions under varying aerosol and cloud conditions. An ensemble approach is used to refine the model configuration for the combined use of observations with parallel LES and single-column model simulations. See Lin et al. poster for single-column model investigation.

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnock, S. T.; Spracklen, D. V.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Forster, P. M.; Haywood, J.; Johnson, C. E.; Dalvi, M.; Bellouin, N.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.

2015-08-01

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry-climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry-climate model for the period 1960-2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978-2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978-1998), PM10 (1997-2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000-2009), aerosol size distributions (2008-2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960-2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = -0.4), SPM (NMBF = -0.9), PM10 (NMBF = -0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = -0.85; N50 NMBF = -0.65; and N100 NMBF = -0.96) and AOD (NMBF = -0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of -68 % (-78 %), SPM of -42 % (-20 %), PM10 of -9 % (-8 %) and AOD of -11 % (-14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990-2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m-2 during the period 1970-2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R2 was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses. PMID:29257117

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China.

PubMed

Li, Zhaofu; Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-12-19

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient ( R ²) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R ² was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses.

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the unconsolidated deposits of the Colville River Watershed, Stevens County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew; Kahle, Sue C.

2004-01-01

Increased use of ground- and surface-water supplies in watersheds of Washington State in recent years has created concern that insufficient instream flows remain for fish and other uses. Issuance of new ground-water rights in the Colville River Watershed was halted by the Washington Department of Ecology due to possible hydraulic continuity of the ground and surface waters. A ground-water-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the ground-water system and the regional effects of ground-water development alternatives on the water resources of the Colville River Watershed. The Colville River Watershed is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and non-glacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Five principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the ground-water-flow model. A steady-state ground-water-flow model of the Colville River Watershed was developed to simulate September 2001 conditions. The simulation period represented a period of below-average precipitation. The model was calibrated using nonlinear regression to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head and stream discharge. Simulated inflow to the model area was 53,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) from precipitation and secondary recharge, and 36,000 acre-ft/yr from stream and lake leakage. Simulated outflow from the model was primarily through discharge to streams and lakes (71,000 acre-ft/yr), ground-water outflow (9,000 acre-ft/yr), and ground-water withdrawals (9,000 acre-ft/yr). Because the period of simulation, September 2001, was extremely dry, all components of the ground-water budget are presumably less than average flow conditions. The calibrated model was used to simulate the possible effects of increased ground-water pumping. Although the steady-state model cannot be used to predict how long it would take for effects to occur, it does simulate the ultimate response to such changes relative to September 2001 (relatively dry) conditions. Steady-state simulations indicated that increased pumping would result in decreased discharge to streams and lakes and decreased ground-water outflow. The location of the simulated increased ground-water pumping determined the primary source of the water withdrawn. Simulated pumping wells in the northern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from ground-water outflow. Simulated pumping wells in the southern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from flow to rivers and streams. The calibrated steady-state model also was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no ground-water pumping, secondary recharge, or irrigation application occurred. Cumulative streamflow in the Colville River Watershed increased by 1.1 cubic feet per second, or about 36 percent of net ground-water pumping in 2001. The model is intended to simulate the regional ground-water-flow system of the Colville River Watershed and can be used as a tool for water-resource managers to assess the ultimate regional effects of changes in stresses. The regional scale of the model, coupled with relatively sparse data, must be considered when applying the model in areas of poorly understood hydrology, or examining hydrologic conditions at a larger scale than what is appropriate.

Simulation of air quality and operational cost to ventilate swine farrowing facilities in Midwest U.S. during winter

PubMed Central

Park, Jae Hong; Peters, Thomas M.; Altmaier, Ralph; Jones, Samuel M.; Gassman, Richard; Anthony, T. Renée

2017-01-01

We have developed a time-dependent simulation model to estimate in-room concentrations of multiple contaminants [ammonia (NH3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and dust] as a function of increased ventilation with filtered recirculation for swine farrowing facilities. Energy and mass balance equations were used to simulate the indoor air quality (IAQ) and operational cost for a variety of ventilation conditions over a 3-month winter period for a facility located in the Midwest U.S., using simplified and real-time production parameters, comparing results to field data. A revised model was improved by minimizing the sum of squared errors (SSE) between modeled and measured NH3 and CO2. After optimizing NH3 and CO2, other IAQ results from the simulation were compared to field measurements using linear regression. For NH3, the coefficient of determination (R2) for simulation results and field measurements improved from 0.02 with the original model to 0.37 with the new model. For CO2, the R2 for simulation results and field measurements was 0.49 with the new model. When the makeup air was matched to hallway air CO2 concentrations (1,500 ppm), simulation results showed the smallest SSE. With the new model, the R2 for other contaminants were 0.34 for inhalable dust, 0.36 for respirable dust, and 0.26 for CO. Operation of the air cleaner decreased inhalable dust by 35% and respirable dust concentrations by 33%, while having no effect on NH3, CO2, in agreement with field data, and increasing operational cost by $860 (58%) for the three-month period. PMID:28775911

Detecting Unsteady Blade Row Interaction in a Francis Turbine using a Phase-Lag Boundary Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouden, Alex; Cimbala, John; Lewis, Bryan

2013-11-01

For CFD simulations in turbomachinery, methods are typically used to reduce the computational cost. For example, the standard periodic assumption reduces the underlying mesh to a single blade passage in axisymmetric applications. If the simulation includes only a single array of blades with an uniform inlet condition, this assumption is adequate. However, to compute the interaction between successive blade rows of differing periodicity in an unsteady simulation, the periodic assumption breaks down and may produce inaccurate results. As a viable alternative the phase-lag boundary condition assumes that the periodicity includes a temporal component which, if considered, allows for a single passage to be modeled per blade row irrespective of differing periodicity. Prominently used in compressible CFD codes for the analysis of gas turbines/compressors, the phase-lag boundary condition is adapted to analyze the interaction between the guide vanes and rotor blades in an incompressible simulation of the 1989 GAMM Workshop Francis turbine using OpenFOAM. The implementation is based on the ``direct-storage'' method proposed in 1977 by Erdos and Alzner. The phase-lag simulation is compared with available data from the GAMM workshop as well as a full-wheel simulation. Funding provided by DOE Award number: DE-EE0002667.

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

Simulations of light effects on the human circadian pacemaker: implications for assessment of intrinsic period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klerman, E. B.; Dijk, D. J.; Kronauer, R. E.; Czeisler, C. A.

1996-01-01

The sensitivity of the human circadian system to light has been the subject of considerable debate. Using computer simulations of a recent quantitative model for the effects of light on the human circadian system, we investigated these effects of light during different experimental protocols. The results of the simulations indicate that the nonuniform distribution over the circadian cycle of exposure to ordinary room light seen in classical free-run studies, in which subjects select their exposure to light and darkness, can result in an observed period of approximately 25 h, even when the intrinsic period of the subject's endogenous circadian pacemaker is much closer to 24 h. Other simulation results suggest that accurate assessment of the true intrinsic period of the human circadian pacemaker requires low ambient light intensities (approximately 10-15 lx) during scheduled wake episodes, desynchrony of the imposed light-dark cycle from the endogenous circadian oscillator, and a study length of at least 20 days. Although these simulations await further experimental substantiation, they highlight the sensitivity to light of the human circadian system and the potential confounding influence of light on the assessment of the intrinsic period of the circadian pacemaker.

Data-Model and Inter-Model Comparisons of the GEM Outflow Events Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Eccles, J. V.; Barakat, A. R.; Kistler, L. M.; Haaland, S.; Schunk, R. W.; Chappell, C. R.

2015-12-01

Two storm periods were selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Ionospheric Outflow focus group for community collaborative study because of its high magnetospheric activity and extensive data coverage: the September 27 - October 4, 2002 corotating interaction region event and the October 22 - 29 coronal mass ejection event. During both events, the FAST, Polar, Cluster, and other missions made key observations, creating prime periods for data-model comparison. The GEM community has come together to simulate this period using many different methods in order to evaluate models, compare results, and expand our knowledge of ionospheric outflow and its effects on global dynamics. This paper presents Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) simulations of these important periods compared against observations from the Polar TIDE, Cluster CODIF and EFW instruments. Emphasis will be given to the second event. Density and velocity of oxygen and hydrogen throughout the lobes, plasma sheet, and inner magnetosphere will be the focus of these comparisons. For these simulations, the SWMF couples the multifluid version of BATS-R-US MHD to a variety of ionospheric outflow models of varying complexity. The simplest is outflow arising from constant MHD inner boundary conditions. Two first-principles-based models are also leveraged: the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM), a fluid treatment of outflow dynamics, and the Generalized Polar Wind (GPW) model, which combines fluid and particle-in-cell approaches. Each model is capable of capturing a different set of energization mechanisms, yielding different outflow results. The data-model comparisons will illustrate how well each approach captures reality and which energization mechanisms are most important. Inter-model comparisons will illustrate how the different outflow specifications affect the magnetosphere. Specifically, it is found that the GPW provides increased heavy ion outflow over a broader spatial range than the alternative models, improving comparisons in some regions but degrading the agreement in others. This work will also assess our current capability to reproduce ionosphere-magnetosphere mass coupling.

Water Source and Isotope changes through the Deglaciation and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Ullman, D. J.; Nusbaumer, J. M.

2017-12-01

The deglacial period saw radical shifts in climate across the globe. Water isotopologues provide some of the most wide-spread proxy archives of these climate changes. Here we present new analyses on a suite of 12 water isotope-enabled coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations from GISS ModelE-R that span 24kya to the pre-industrial period. We show how millennial scale co-variability in water isotopes and climate (temperature, precipitation, humidity, and moist-static energy) is distinct from regional scale spatial slopes, consistent with proxy archives (e.g., Cuffey et al 1995). We supplement this set of simulations with a new ensemble of deglacial simulations that contain a complementary suite of tracers that determine moisture provenance changes through the deglaciation. We diagnose regions that have had significant changes in moisture provenance and compare this information against simulated changes in the water isotope changes.

Modeling water quality in the Tualatin River, Oregon, 1991-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.; Wood, Tamara M.

2001-01-01

The calibration of a model of flow, temperature, and water quality in the Tualatin River, Oregon, originally calibrated for the summers of 1991 through 1993, was extended to the summers of 1991 through 1997. The model is now calibrated for a total period of 42 months during the May through October periods of 7 hydrologically distinct years. Based on a modified version of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers model CE-QUAL-W2, this model provides a good fit to the measured data for streamflow, water temperature, and water quality constituents such as chloride, ammonia, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, phytoplankton, and dissolved oxygen. In particular, the model simulates ammonia concentrations and the effects of instream ammonia nitrification very well, which is critical to ongoing efforts to revise ammonia regulations for the Tualatin River. In addition, the model simulates the timing, duration, and relative size of algal blooms with sufficient accuracy to provide important insights for regulators and managers of this river.Efforts to limit the size of algal blooms through phosphorus control measures are apparent in the model simulations, which show this limitation on algal growth. Such measures are largely responsible for avoiding violations of the State of Oregon maximum pH standard of 8.5 in recent years, but they have not yet reduced algal biomass levels below the State of Oregon nuisance phytoplankton growth guideline of 15 ?g/L chlorophyll-a.Most of the dynamics of the instream dissolved oxygen concentrations are captured by the model. About half of the error in the simulated dissolved oxygen concentrations is directly attributable to error in the size of the simulated phytoplankton population. To achieve greater accuracy in simulating dissolved oxygen, therefore, it will be necessary to increase accuracy in the simulation of Tualatin River phytoplankton.Future efforts may include the introduction of multiple algal groups in the model. This model of the Tualatin River continues to be used as a quantitative tool to aid in the management of this important resource.

Numerical Simulation of cardiovascular deconditioning in different reduced gravity exposure scenarios. Parabolic flight validation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Poch, Antoni; Gonzalez, Daniel

Numerical models and simulations are an emerging area of research in human physiology. As complex numerical models are available, along with high-speed computing technologies, it is possible to produce more accurate predictions of the long-term effects of reduced gravity on the human body. NELME (Numerical Emulation of Long-Term Microgravity Effects) has been developed as an electrical-like control system model of the pysiological changes that may arise when gravity changes are applied to the cardiovascular system. Validation of the model has been carried out in parabolic flights at UPC BarcelonaTech Platform. A number of parabolas of up to 8 seconds were performed at Sabadell Airport with an aerobatic single-engine CAP10B plane capable of performing such maneuvres. Heart rate, arterial pressure, and gravity data was collected and compared to the output obtained from the model in order to optimize its parameters. The model is then able to perform simulations for long-term periods of exposure to microgravity, and then the risk for a major malfunction is evaluated. Vascular resistance is known to be impaired during a long-term mission. This effects are not fully understood, and the model is capable of providing a continuous thread of simulated scenarios, while varying gravity in a nearly-continuous way. Aerobic exercise as countermeasure has been simulated as a periodic perturbation into the simulated physiological system. Results are discussed in terms of the validaty and reliability of the outcomes from the model, that have been found compatible with the available data in the literature. Different gender sensitivities to microgravity exposure are discussed. Also thermal stress along with exercise, as it happens in the case of Extravehicular activity is smulated. Results show that vascular resistance is significantly impared (p<0,05) at gravity levels less than 0,4g, when exposed for a period of time longer than 16 days. This degree of impairement is comparable with that resulting from a microgravity exposure. These results suggest that long-term activities on the surface of Mars may have a greater impact on the cardiovascular health than previously thought.

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: a comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tang, Guoping; Shafer, Sarah L.; Barlein, Patrick J.; Holman, Justin O.

2009-01-01

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO2 concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.

Simulation of river stage using artificial neural network and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, Rabindra K.; Pramanik, Niranjan; Bala, Biplab

2010-06-01

Simulation of water levels at different sections of a river using physically based flood routing models is quite cumbersome, because it requires many types of data such as hydrologic time series, river geometry, hydraulics of existing control structures and channel roughness coefficients. Normally in developing countries like India it is not easy to collect these data because of poor monitoring and record keeping. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used as an effective alternative in hydrologic simulation studies. The present study aims at comparing the performance of the ANN technique with a widely used physically based hydrodynamic model in the MIKE 11 environment. The MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated for the monsoon periods (June-September) of the years 2006 and 2001, respectively. Feed forward neural network architecture with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) back propagation training algorithm was used to train the neural network model using hourly water level data of the period June-September 2006. The trained ANN model was tested using data for the same period of the year 2001. Simulated water levels by the MIKE 11HD were compared with the corresponding water levels predicted by the ANN model. The results obtained from the ANN model were found to be much better than that of the MIKE 11HD results as indicated by the values of the goodness of fit indices used in the study. The Nash-Sutcliffe index ( E) and root mean square error (RMSE) obtained in case of the ANN model were found to be 0.8419 and 0.8939 m, respectively, during model testing, whereas in case of MIKE 11HD, the values of E and RMSE were found to be 0.7836 and 1.00 m, respectively, during model validation. The difference between the observed and simulated peak water levels obtained from the ANN model was found to be much lower than that of MIKE 11HD. The study reveals that the use of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with eight hidden neurons in the hidden layer is sufficient to produce satisfactory results.

Evaluation of approaches focused on modelling of organic carbon stocks using the RothC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koco, Štefan; Skalský, Rastislav; Makovníková, Jarmila; Tarasovičová, Zuzana; Barančíková, Gabriela

2014-05-01

The aim of current efforts in the European area is the protection of soil organic matter, which is included in all relevant documents related to the protection of soil. The use of modelling of organic carbon stocks for anticipated climate change, respectively for land management can significantly help in short and long-term forecasting of the state of soil organic matter. RothC model can be applied in the time period of several years to centuries and has been tested in long-term experiments within a large range of soil types and climatic conditions in Europe. For the initialization of the RothC model, knowledge about the carbon pool sizes is essential. Pool size characterization can be obtained from equilibrium model runs, but this approach is time consuming and tedious, especially for larger scale simulations. Due to this complexity we search for new possibilities how to simplify and accelerate this process. The paper presents a comparison of two approaches for SOC stocks modelling in the same area. The modelling has been carried out on the basis of unique input of land use, management and soil data for each simulation unit separately. We modeled 1617 simulation units of 1x1 km grid on the territory of agroclimatic region Žitný ostrov in the southwest of Slovakia. The first approach represents the creation of groups of simulation units based on the evaluation of results for simulation unit with similar input values. The groups were created after the testing and validation of modelling results for individual simulation units with results of modelling the average values of inputs for the whole group. Tests of equilibrium model for interval in the range 5 t.ha-1 from initial SOC stock showed minimal differences in results comparing with result for average value of whole interval. Management inputs data from plant residues and farmyard manure for modelling of carbon turnover were also the same for more simulation units. Combining these groups (intervals of initial SOC stock, groups of plant residues inputs, groups of farmyard manure inputs), we created 661 simulation groups. Within the group, for all simulation units we used average values of inputs. Export of input data and modelling has been carried out manually in the graphic environment of RothC 26.3 v2.0 application for each group separately. SOC stocks were modeled for 661 groups of simulation units. For the second possibility we used RothC 26.3 version for DOS. The inputs for modelling were exported using VBA scripts in the environment of MS Access program. Equilibrium modelling for more variations of plant residues inputs was performed. Subsequently we selected the nearest value of total pool size to the real initial SOC stock value. All simulation units (1617) were automatically modeled by means of the predefined Batch File. The comparison of two methods of modelling showed spatial differentiation of results mainly with the increasing time of modelling period. In the time sequence, from initial period we mark the increasing the number of simulation units with differences in SOC stocks according to selected approaches. Observed differences suggest that the results of modelling obtained by inputs generalization should be taken into account with a certain degree of reserve. At large scales simulations it is more appropriate to use the DOS version of RothC 26.3 model which allows automated modelling. This reduces the time needed for model operation, without the necessity to look for the possibilities of minimizing the simulated units. Key words Soil organic carbon stock, modelling, RothC 26.3, agricultural soils, Slovakia Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-0580-10 and APVV-0131-11.

Reconstruction of 137Cs activity in the ocean following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, Daisuke; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Tateda, Yutaka; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Hayami, Hiroshi; Toyoda, Yasuhiro; Maeda, Yoshiaki; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Uematsu, Mitsuo

2014-05-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition. We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the ocean by the comparison model simulations and observed data. We employed a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model to investigate the oceanic contamination. Direct releases of 137Cs were estimated for more than 2 years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly released 137Cs was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be 3.0 x 1010 Bq day-1 by the end of September 2013. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable, while simulated 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition were low compared to measured activities. The rate of atmospheric deposition onto the ocean was underestimated because of a lack of measurements of dose rate and air activity of 137Cs over the ocean when atmospheric deposition rates were being estimated. Observed 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition in the ocean helped to improve the accuracy of simulated atmospheric deposition rates. Although there is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011, observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. In addition, river runoff model simulations suggest that the river flux of 137Cs to the ocean was effective to the 137Cs activity in the ocean in this early period. The sediment transport model simulations suggests that the inventory of 137Cs in sediment was less than 10

Modeling the Impact of Simulated Educational Interventions on the Use and Abuse of Pharmaceutical Opioids in the United States: A Report on Initial Efforts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wakeland, Wayne; Nielsen, Alexandra; Schmidt, Teresa D.; McCarty, Dennis; Webster, Lynn R.; Fitzgerald, John; Haddox, J. David

2013-01-01

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the…

Modeling Nanocomposites for Molecular Dynamics (MD) Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

Parallel Simulator ( LAMMPS ) is used as the MD simulator [9], the coordinates must be formatted for use in LAMMPSs. VMD has a set of tools (TopoTools...that can be used to generate a LAMMPS -readable format [6]. 3 Figure 4. Ethylene Monomer Produced From Coordinates in PDB and Rendered Using...where, i and j are the atom subscripts. Simulations are performed using LAMMPS simulation software. Periodic boundary conditions are

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.

Simulation of the Effect of Realistic Space Vehicle Environments on Binary Metal Alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westra, Douglas G.; Poirier, D. R.; Heinrich, J. C.; Sung, P. K.; Felicelli, S. D.; Phelps, Lisa (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Simulations that assess the effect of space vehicle acceleration environments on the solidification of Pb-Sb alloys are reported. Space microgravity missions are designed to provide a near zero-g acceleration environment for various types of scientific experiments. Realistically. these space missions cannot provide a perfect environment. Vibrations caused by crew activity, on-board experiments, support systems stems (pumps, fans, etc.), periodic orbital maneuvers, and water dumps can all cause perturbations to the microgravity environment. In addition, the drag on the space vehicle is a source of acceleration. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of these vibration-perturbations and the steady-state drag acceleration on the experiments. These predictions can be used to design mission timelines. so that the experiment is run during times that the impact of the acceleration environment is acceptable for the experiment of interest. The simulations reported herein were conducted using a finite element model that includes mass, species, momentum, and energy conservation. This model predicts the existence of "channels" within the processing mushy zone and subsequently "freckles" within the fully processed solid, which are the effects of thermosolutal convection. It is necessary to mitigate thermosolutal convection during space experiments of metal alloys, in order to study and characterize diffusion-controlled transport phenomena (microsegregation) that are normally coupled with macrosegregation. The model allows simulation of steady-state and transient acceleration values ranging from no acceleration (0 g). to microgravity conditions (10(exp -6) to 10(exp -3) g), to terrestrial gravity conditions (1 g). The transient acceleration environments simulated were from the STS-89 SpaceHAB mission and from the STS-94 SpaceLAB mission. with on-orbit accelerometer data during different mission periods used as inputs for the simulation model. Periods of crew exercise, quiet (no crew activity), and nominal conditions from STS-89 were used as simulation inputs as were periods of nominal. overboard water-dump, and free-drift (no orbit maneuvering operations) from STS-94. Steady-state acceleration environments of 0.0 and 10(exp -6) to 10(exp -1) g were also simulated, to serve as a comparison to the transient data and to assess an acceptable magnitude for the steady-state vehicle drag

Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's Nitrogen Oxides State Implementation Plan as well as significant reductions in mobile source emissions. Model results for the summers of 2002 and 2005 were compared to simulations from a previous version of CMAQ to assess the impact of model updates on predicted pollutant response. Changes to the model treatment of emissions, meteorology and chemistry had substantial impacts on the simulated ozone concentrations. While the median bias for high summertime ozone decreased in both years compared to previous simulations, the observed decrease in ozone from 2002 to 2005 in the eastern US continued to be underestimated by the model. Additional “cross” simulations were used to decompose the model predicted change in ozone into the change due to emissions, the change due to meteorology and any remaining change not explained individually by these two components. The decomposition showed that the emission controls led to a decrease in modeled high summertime ozone close to twice as large as the decrease attributable to changes in meteorology alone. Quantifying the impact of retrospective emission controls by removing the impacts of meteorology during the control period can be a valuable approac

Seltzer_et_al_2016

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset supports the modeling study of Seltzer et al. (2016) published in Atmospheric Environment. In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000-2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method??s use for future air quality projections.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Seltzer, K., C

Research on numerical simulation technology about regional important pollutant diffusion of haze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Boying; Ma, Yunfeng; Li, Qiangqiang; Wang, Qi; Hu, Qiongqiong; Bian, Yushan

2018-02-01

In order to analyze the formation of haze in Shenyang and the factors that affect the diffusion of pollutants, the simulation experiment adopted in this paper is based on the numerical model of WRF/CALPUFF coupling. Simulation experiment was conducted to select PM10 of Shenyang City in the period from March 1 to 8, and the PM10 in the regional important haze was simulated. The survey was conducted with more than 120 enterprises section the point of the emission source of this experiment. The contrastive data were analyzed with 11 air quality monitoring points, and the simulation results were compared. Analyze the contribution rate of each typical enterprise to the air quality, verify the correctness of the simulation results, and then use the model to establish the prediction model.

The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melachroinos, Stavros A.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Beckley, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.

Application of the denitrification-decomposition model to predict carbon dioxide emissions under alternative straw retention methods.

PubMed

Chen, Can; Chen, Deli; Pan, Jianjun; Lam, Shu Kee

2013-01-01

Straw retention has been shown to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from agricultural soils. But it remains a big challenge for models to effectively predict CO2 emission fluxes under different straw retention methods. We used maize season data in the Griffith region, Australia, to test whether the denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model could simulate annual CO2 emission. We also identified driving factors of CO2 emission by correlation analysis and path analysis. We show that the DNDC model was able to simulate CO2 emission under alternative straw retention scenarios. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed daily values for treatments of straw burn and straw incorporation were 0.74 and 0.82, respectively, in the straw retention period and 0.72 and 0.83, respectively, in the crop growth period. The results also show that simulated values of annual CO2 emission for straw burn and straw incorporation were 3.45 t C ha(-1) y(-1) and 2.13 t C ha(-1) y(-1), respectively. In addition the DNDC model was found to be more suitable in simulating CO2 mission fluxes under straw incorporation. Finally the standard multiple regression describing the relationship between CO2 emissions and factors found that soil mean temperature (SMT), daily mean temperature (T mean), and water-filled pore space (WFPS) were significant.

Application of the Denitrification-Decomposition Model to Predict Carbon Dioxide Emissions under Alternative Straw Retention Methods

PubMed Central

Chen, Deli; Pan, Jianjun; Lam, Shu Kee

2013-01-01

Straw retention has been shown to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from agricultural soils. But it remains a big challenge for models to effectively predict CO2 emission fluxes under different straw retention methods. We used maize season data in the Griffith region, Australia, to test whether the denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model could simulate annual CO2 emission. We also identified driving factors of CO2 emission by correlation analysis and path analysis. We show that the DNDC model was able to simulate CO2 emission under alternative straw retention scenarios. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed daily values for treatments of straw burn and straw incorporation were 0.74 and 0.82, respectively, in the straw retention period and 0.72 and 0.83, respectively, in the crop growth period. The results also show that simulated values of annual CO2 emission for straw burn and straw incorporation were 3.45 t C ha−1 y−1 and 2.13 t C ha−1 y−1, respectively. In addition the DNDC model was found to be more suitable in simulating CO2 mission fluxes under straw incorporation. Finally the standard multiple regression describing the relationship between CO2 emissions and factors found that soil mean temperature (SMT), daily mean temperature (T mean), and water-filled pore space (WFPS) were significant. PMID:24453915

Precipitation Processes Developed During ARM (1997), TOGA COARE (1992) GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): Consistent 3D, Semi-3D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Atlas, R.; Starr, D.; Sud, Y.

2003-01-01

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D) have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. IN these 3D simulators, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical clouds systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Center. At Goddard, a 3D cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM, and KWAJEX using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The result indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulation. The major objective of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parametrization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budget, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude only while maintaining the GCM's sequencing of events, allowing for the examination of differences in historic and future hydroclimatic extremes. These bias corrected streamflow scenarios provide an alternative to stochastic simulations for hydrologic data analysis and can aid future resource planning and environmental studies.

Application of SPHY model for Understanding the Hydrological Regime of Tamor River, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaidya, A.; Kayastha, R. B.

2017-12-01

With the changing climate the hydrology of the rivers are also changing so to understand the actual impacts hydrological modelling plays a very vital role. In this study a distributed SPHY model is used in Tamor River basin located in the eastern part of Nepal to estimate the snow and glacier melt contribution in the discharge. The model calculates the each component of water balance equation in each grid cell of the basin and routes it to the outlet point. The model simulates the daily discharge for both calibration (2002-2005) and validation year (2006-2010) competently with coefficient of determination (R2) 0.78 and 0.76 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) 0.73 and 0.7, respectively. The model simulates the low flow with high efficiency whereas high flows are under estimated. The snow and glacier melt contribution in the river discharge is 20% for both calibration and validation year. The precipitation and temperature data for CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios after bias correction are used to simulate the projected discharge for period (2020-2099). The average discharge of the period is 170.21 m3 s-1 and 188.45 m3 s-1 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt in the discharge for the whole period (2020-2099) is similar to the calibration and validation year but decadal analysis shows that the contribution is highest in the midst of the period and again decreasing towards the end for both scenarios. The findings of the study indicate further monitoring and modeling is necessary to get better grasp of the subject.

Global River Water Temperature Modelling at Hyper-Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical and biological aquatic processes. The influence of changing water temperatures is not only felt locally, but also has regional and downstream impacts. Sectors that might be affected by sudden or gradual changes in the water temperature are: energy production, industry and recreation. Although it is very important to have detailed information on this environmental variable, high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. Here we present a novel hyper-resolution water temperature dataset at the global scale. We developed the 1-D energy routing model WARM, to simulate river temperature for the period 1980-2014 at 10 km and 50 km resolution. The WARM model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding and formation of ice, therefore enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. The water temperature simulations have been validated against 358 river monitoring stations globally for the period 1980 to 2014. The results indicate the increase in resolution significantly improves the simulation performance with a decrease in the water temperature RMSE from 3.5°C to 3.0°C and an increase in the mean correlation of the daily discharge simulations, from R=0.4 to 0.6. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.22°C per decade between 1960-2014, with increasing trends towards the end of the simulations period. Strong increasing trends in maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62°C per decade) and minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45°C per decade). Finally, we show the impact of major heatwaves and drought events on the water temperature and water availability. The high resolution not only improves the model performance; it also positively impacts the relevancy of the simulation for local and regional scale studies and impact assessments. This new global water temperature dataset could help to develop decision-support system related to water quality with increasing precision and accuracy.

Hydrological changes in the Amur river basin: two approaches for assignment of climate projections into hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrei; Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

A regional hydrological model was setup to assess possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Amur drainage basin (the catchment area is 1 855 000 km2). The model is based on the ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform and describes spatially distributed processes of water cycle in this great basin with account for flow regulation by the Russian and Chinese reservoirs. Earlier, the regional hydrological model was intensively evaluated against 20-year streamflow data over the whole Amur basin and, being driven by 252-station meteorological observations as input data, demonstrated good performance. In this study, we firstly assessed the reliability of the model to reproduce the historical streamflow series when Global Climate Model (GCM) simulation data are used as input into the hydrological model. Data of nine GCMs involved in CMIP5 project was utilized and we found that ensemble mean of annual flow is close to the observed flow (error is about 14%) while data of separate GCMs may result in much larger errors. Reproduction of seasonal flow for the historical period turned out weaker; first of all because of large errors in simulated seasonal precipitation, so hydrological consequences of climate change were estimated just in terms of annual flow. We analyzed the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in four 20-year periods: early- (2020-2039), mid- (2040-2059) and two end-century (2060-2079; 2080-2099) periods using an ensemble of nine GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Mean annual runoff anomalies calculated as percentages of the future runoff (simulated under 36 GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios) to the historical runoff (simulated under the corresponding GCM outputs for the reference 1986-2005 period) were estimated. Hydrological model gave small negative runoff anomalies for almost all GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios and for all 20-year periods. The largest ensemble mean anomaly was about minus 8% by the end of XXI century under the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. We compared the mean annual runoff anomalies projected under the GCM-based data for the XXI century with the corresponding anomalies projected under a modified observed climatology using the delta-change (DC) method. Use of the modified observed records as driving forces for hydrological model-based projections can be considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if the latter are uncertain. The main advantage of the DC approach is its simplicity: in its simplest version only differences between present and future climates (i.e. between the long-term means of the climatic variables) are considered as DC-factors. In this study, the DC-factors for the reference meteorological series (1986-2005) of climate parameters were calculated from the GCM-based scenarios. The modified historical data were used as input into the hydrological models. For each of four 20-year period, runoff anomalies simulated under the delta-changed historical time series were compared with runoff anomalies simulated under the corresponding GCM-data with the same mean. We found that the compared projections are closely correlated. Thus, for the Amur basin, the modified observed climatology can be used as driving force for hydrological model-based projections and considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if only annual flow projections are of the interest.

Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirocha, Jeff D.; Simpson, Matthew D.; Fast, Jerome D.

Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finleymore » et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.« less

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza; Gregoire, Lauren; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier; Valdes, Paul; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-04-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will concentrate on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part. Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 9045-9102, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9045-2015, 2015.

Conceptualization and analysis of ground-water flow system in the Coastal Plain of Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harsh, John F.; Laczniak, Randell J.

1990-01-01

The ground-water flow system in the Coastal Plain of Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina consists of a water table aquifer and an underlying sequence of confined aquifers and intervening confining units composed of unconsolidated sand and clay. A digital flow model was developed to enhance knowledge of the behavior of the ground-water flow system in response to its development. Ten pumping periods covering 90 yr of withdrawal simulated the history of ground-water development. Simulated potentiometric-surface maps for 1980 show lowered water levels and the development of coalescing cones of depression around the cities of Franklin, Suffolk, and Williamsburg and the town of West Point, all in Virginia. The largest simulated decline in water level, about 210 ft was near Franklin. Water budgets indicate that over the period of simulation (1891-1980): (1) pumpage from the model area increased by about 105 Mgal/d; (2) lateral boundary outflow increased by about 5 Mgal/d; (3) ground-water flow to streams and coastal water decreased by about 107.5 Mgal/d; (4) lateral boundary inflow increased by about 0.7 Mgal/d, and (5) water released from aquifer storage increased by about 1.6 Mgal/d. Simulated rates of recharge into the confined aquifer system at the end of the final pumping period (1980) varied up to 3.8 in/yr. and simulated rates of discharge out of the confined system varied up to 2.2 in/yr. Results of simulations show an increase of about 110 Mgal/d into the confined system from the unconfined system over the period of simulation. This increase in flow into the confined system affected local discharge of ground water to streams and regional discharge to coastal water. Lowering the storage coefficient of the aquifer had a minimal effect simulated water levels, whereas increasing the storage coefficient had a much more significant effect.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL in natural and human-impacted catchments for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Lane, Rosanna; Musuuza, Jude; Woods, Ross; Wagener, Thorsten; Howden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Models of catchment hydrology are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow simulations and predictions. However, simulating low flows is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of anthropogenic modifications such as surface and ground water abstractions during low flow periods. These processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to knowledge, data and model limitations. Hence, a better understanding of the natural and human processes that occur during low flows, how these are represented within models and how they could be improved is required to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of dynamic TOPMODEL during low flows for both natural and human-impacted catchments. Dynamic TOPMODEL was chosen for this study as it is able to explicitly characterise connectivity and fluxes across landscapes using hydrological response units (HRU's) while still maintaining flexibility in how spatially complex the model is configured and what specific functions (i.e. abstractions or groundwater stores) are represented. We apply dynamic TOPMODEL across the River Thames catchment using daily time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data for the period 1999 - 2014, covering two major droughts in the Thames catchment. Significantly, to assess the impact of abstractions on low flows across the Thames catchment, we incorporate functions to characterise over 3,500 monthly surface water and ground water abstractions covering the simulation period into dynamic TOPMODEL. We evaluate dynamic TOPMODEL at over 90 gauging stations across the Thames catchment against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour in a 'limits of acceptability' GLUE framework. We investigate differences in model performance between signatures, different low flow periods and for natural and human impacted catchments to better understand the ability of dynamic TOPMODEL to represent low flows in space and time. Finally, we discuss future developments of dynamic TOPMODEL to improve low flow simulation and the implications of these results for modelling hydrological extremes in natural and human impacted catchments across the UK and the world.

A precipitation-runoff model for analysis of the effects of water withdrawals on streamflow, Ipswich River basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Ries, Kernell G.

2000-01-01

Water withdrawals from the 155-square-mile Ipswich River Basin in northeastern Massachusetts affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and recreational use of the river. To better understand the effects of these withdrawals on streamflow, particularly low flow, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to develop a watershed-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Ipswich River to simulate its hydrology and complex water-use patterns.An analytical solution was used to compute time series of streamflow depletions resulting from ground-water withdrawals at wells. The flow depletions caused by pumping from the wells were summed along with any surface-water withdrawals to calculate the total withdrawal along a stream reach. The water withdrawals, records of precipitation, and streamflow records on the Ipswich River at South Middleton and at Ipswich for the period 1989?93 were used to calibrate the model. Model-fit analysis indicates that the simulated flows matched observed flows over a wide range of conditions; at a minimum, the coefficient of model-fit efficiency indicates that the model explained 79 percent of the variance in the observed daily flow.Six alternative water-withdrawal and land-use scenarios were simulated with the model. Three scenarios were examined for the 1989?93 calibration period, and three scenarios were examined for the 1961?95 period to test alternative withdrawals and land use over a wider range of climatic conditions, and to compute 1-, 7-, and 30-day low-flow frequencies using a log-Pearson Type III analysis. Flow-duration curves computed from results of the 1989?93 simulations indicate that, at the South Middleton and Ipswich gaging stations, streamflows when no water withdrawals are being made are nearly identical to streamflows when no ground-water withdrawals are made. Streamflow under no water withdrawals at both stations are about an order of magnitude larger at the 99.8 percent exceedence probability than simulations with only ground-water withdrawals. Long-term simulations indicate that the differences between streamflow with no water withdrawals and average 1989?93 water withdrawals is similar to the difference between simulations for the same water-use conditions made for the 1989?93 period at both sites. The 7-day, 10-year low-flow (7Q10, a widely used regulatory statistic) at the South Middleton station was 4.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with no water withdrawals and 1991 land use, 5.8 ft3/s no withdrawals and undeveloped land, and 0.54 ft3/s with average 1989?93 water withdrawals and 1991 land use. The 7Q10 at the Ipswich station was about 8.3 ft3/s for simulations with no water withdrawals for both the 1991 land use and the undeveloped land conditions, and 2.7 ft3/s for simulations with average 1989?93 water withdrawals and 1991 land use. Simulation results indicate that surface-water withdrawals have little effect on the duration and frequency of low flows, but the cumulative ground-water withdrawals substantially decrease low flows.

Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen

2014-02-28

Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an officemore » building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.« less

Benchmark Simulation Model No 2: finalisation of plant layout and default control strategy.

PubMed

Nopens, I; Benedetti, L; Jeppsson, U; Pons, M-N; Alex, J; Copp, J B; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A

2010-01-01

The COST/IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 1 (BSM1) has been available for almost a decade. Its primary purpose has been to create a platform for control strategy benchmarking of activated sludge processes. The fact that the research work related to the benchmark simulation models has resulted in more than 300 publications worldwide demonstrates the interest in and need of such tools within the research community. Recent efforts within the IWA Task Group on "Benchmarking of control strategies for WWTPs" have focused on an extension of the benchmark simulation model. This extension aims at facilitating control strategy development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level and, consequently, includes both pretreatment of wastewater as well as the processes describing sludge treatment. The motivation for the extension is the increasing interest and need to operate and control wastewater treatment systems not only at an individual process level but also on a plant-wide basis. To facilitate the changes, the evaluation period has been extended to one year. A prolonged evaluation period allows for long-term control strategies to be assessed and enables the use of control handles that cannot be evaluated in a realistic fashion in the one week BSM1 evaluation period. In this paper, the finalised plant layout is summarised and, as was done for BSM1, a default control strategy is proposed. A demonstration of how BSM2 can be used to evaluate control strategies is also given.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May–September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990–2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000–2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large n

KINETIC SIMULATION OF SLOW MAGNETOSONIC WAVES AND QUASI-PERIODIC UPFLOWS IN THE SOLAR CORONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruan, Wenzhi; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi

Quasi-periodic disturbances of emission-line parameters are frequently observed in the corona. These disturbances propagate upward along the magnetic field with speeds of ∼100 km s{sup −1}. This phenomenon has been interpreted as evidence of the propagation of slow magnetosonic waves or has been argued to be a signature of intermittent outflows superposed on the background plasmas. Here we aim to present a new “wave + flow” model to interpret these observations. In our scenario, the oscillatory motion is a slow-mode wave, and the flow is associated with a beam created by the wave–particle interaction owing to Landau resonance. With themore » help of a kinetic model, we simulate the propagation of slow-mode waves and the generation of beam flows. We find that weak periodic beam flows can be generated by to Landau resonance in the solar corona, and the phase with the strongest blueward asymmetry is ahead of that with the strongest blueshift by about 1/4 period. We also find that the slow wave damps to the level of 1/ e after the transit time of two wave periods, owing to Landau damping and Coulomb collisions in our simulation. This damping timescale is similar to that resulting from thermal conduction in the MHD regime. The beam flow is weakened/attenuated with increasing wave period and decreasing wave amplitude since Coulomb collisions become more and more dominant over the wave action. We suggest that this “wave + flow” kinetic model provides an alternative explanation for the observed quasi-periodic propagating perturbations in various parameters in the solar corona.« less

One hundred years of Arctic ice cover variations as simulated by a one-dimensional, ice-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkinen, S.; Mellor, G. L.

1990-09-01

A one-dimensional ice-ocean model consisting of a second moment, turbulent closure, mixed layer model and a three-layer snow-ice model has been applied to the simulation of Arctic ice mass and mixed layer properties. The results for the climatological seasonal cycle are discussed first and include the salt and heat balance in the upper ocean. The coupled model is then applied to the period 1880-1985, using the surface air temperature fluctuations from Hansen et al. (1983) and from Wigley et al. (1981). The analysis of the simulated large variations of the Arctic ice mass during this period (with similar changes in the mixed layer salinity) shows that the variability in the summer melt determines to a high degree the variability in the average ice thickness. The annual oceanic heat flux from the deep ocean and the maximum freezing rate and associated nearly constant minimum surface salinity flux did not vary significantly interannually. This also implies that the oceanic influence on the Arctic ice mass is minimal for the range of atmospheric variability tested.

Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, D. S.; Wood, E. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Mancini, M.

1994-01-01

Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

Analysis, simulation and visualization of 1D tapping via reduced dynamical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackmore, Denis; Rosato, Anthony; Tricoche, Xavier; Urban, Kevin; Zou, Luo

2014-04-01

A low-dimensional center-of-mass dynamical model is devised as a simplified means of approximately predicting some important aspects of the motion of a vertical column comprised of a large number of particles subjected to gravity and periodic vertical tapping. This model is investigated first as a continuous dynamical system using analytical, simulation and visualization techniques. Then, by employing an approach analogous to that used to approximate the dynamics of a bouncing ball on an oscillating flat plate, it is modeled as a discrete dynamical system and analyzed to determine bifurcations and transitions to chaotic motion along with other properties. The predictions of the analysis are then compared-primarily qualitatively-with visualization and simulation results of the reduced continuous model, and ultimately with simulations of the complete system dynamics.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

2001-01-01

Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport downstream from the WWTP?s. HSPF, a hydrologic model capable of simulating mixed-land-use basins, includes land surface, subsurface, and instream waterquantity- and water-quality-modeling components. The HSPF model was used to represent several important hydrologic features of the Chenoweth Run Basin including (1) numerous small lakes and ponds, through which approximately 25 percent of the basin drains; (2) potential seasonal ground-waterseepage losses in stream channels; (3) contributions from WWTP effluents and bypass flows; and (4) the transport and transformations of sediments and nutrients. The HSPF model was calibrated and verified for flow simulation on the basis of measured total, annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, hourly, and 5-minute-interval storm discharge data. The occurrence of numerous storms during the study period permitted a splitsample procedure to be used for a model verification on the basis of storm volumes and peaks. Total simulated and observed discharge during the model calibration period differed by approximately -5.4 percent at the upper gaging station and 3.1 percent at the lower station. The model results for the total and annual water balances were classified as very good on the basis of the calibration criteria reported in other modeling studies. The model had correlation coefficients ranging from 0.89 to 0.98 for hourly to monthly mean flows, respectively. The coefficients of model-fit efficiency for daily and monthly discharge simulations were near the excellent range (exceeding 0.97). However, the model was calibrated for a comparatively short 24-month period during which flows were above normal. Increased model error might be expected during an extended period of nearnormal flows. The model was calibrated for simulation of sediment and TPO4 transport. The simulated mean-annual load (over 24 months) ranged from -33 to -28 percent of the estimated sediment load and within +/- 1 percent of the estimated TPO4 load at the two streamflow-gaging s

Groundwater model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system version 3.0: Incorporating revisions in southwestern Utah and east central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Lynette E.

2017-12-01

The groundwater model described in this report is a new version of previously published steady-state numerical groundwater flow models of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system, and was developed in conjunction with U.S. Geological Survey studies in Parowan, Pine, and Wah Wah Valleys, Utah. This version of the model is GBCAAS v. 3.0 and supersedes previous versions. The objectives of the model for Parowan Valley were to simulate revised conceptual estimates of recharge and discharge, to estimate simulated aquifer storage properties and the amount of reduction in storage as a result of historical groundwater withdrawals, and to assess reduction in groundwater withdrawals necessary to mitigate groundwater-level declines in the basin. The objectives of the model for the area near Pine and Wah Wah Valleys were to recalibrate the model using new observations of groundwater levels and evapotranspiration of groundwater; to provide new estimates of simulated recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and interbasin flow; and to simulate the effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals on the regional flow system. Meeting these objectives required the addition of 15 transient calibration stress periods and 14 projection stress periods, aquifer storage properties, historical withdrawals in Parowan Valley, and observations of water-level changes in Parowan Valley. Recharge in Parowan Valley and withdrawal from wells in Parowan Valley and two nearby wells in Cedar City Valley vary for each calibration stress period representing conditions from March 1940 to November 2013. Stresses, including recharge, are the same in each stress period as in the steady-state stress period for all areas outside of Parowan Valley. The model was calibrated to transient conditions only in Parowan Valley. Simulated storage properties outside of Parowan Valley were set the same as the Parowan Valley properties and are not considered calibrated. Model observations in GBCAAS v. 3.0 are groundwater levels at wells and discharge locations; water-level changes; and discharge to springs, evapotranspiration of groundwater, rivers, and lakes. All observations in the model outside of Parowan Valley are considered to represent steady-state conditions. Composite scaled sensitivities indicate the observations of discharge to rivers and springs provide more information about model parameters in the model focus area than do water-level observations. Water levels and water-level changes, however, provide the only information about specific yield and specific storage parameters and provide more information about recharge and withdrawals in Parowan Valley than any other observation group. Comparisons of simulated water levels and measured water levels in Parowan Valley indicated that the model fits the overall trend of declining water levels and provides reasonable estimates of long-term reduction in storage and of storage changes from 2012 to 2013. The conceptual and simulated groundwater budgets for Parowan Valley from November 2012 to November 2013 are similar, with recharge of about 20,000 acre-feet and discharge of about 45,000 acre-feet. In the simulation, historical withdrawals averaging about 28,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) cause major changes in the groundwater system in Parowan Valley. These changes include the cessation of almost all natural discharge in the valley and the long-term removal of water from storage. Simulated recharge in Pine Valley of 11,000 acre-ft/yr and in Wah Wah Valley of 3,200 acre-ft/yr is substantially less in GBCAAS v. 3.0 than that simulated by previous model versions. In addition, the valleys have less simulated inflow from and outflow to other hydrographic areas than were simulated by previous model versions. The effects of groundwater development in these valleys, however, are independent of the amount of water recharging in and flowing through the valleys. Groundwater withdrawals in Pine and Wah Wah Valleys will decrease groundwater storage (causing drawdown) until discharge in surrounding areas and mountain springs around the two valleys is reduced by the rate of withdrawal. The model was used to estimate that reducing withdrawals in Parowan Valley from 35,000 to about 22,000 acre-ft/yr would likely stabilize groundwater levels in the valley if recharge varies as it did from about 1950 to 2012. The model was also used to demonstrate that withdrawals of 15,000 acre-ft/yr from Pine Valley and 6,500 acre-ft/yr from Wah Wah Valley could ultimately cause long-term steady-state water-level declines of about 1,900 feet near the withdrawal wells and of more than 5 feet in an area of about 10,500 square miles. The timing of drawdown and capture and the ultimate amount of drawdown are dependent on the proximity to areas of simulated natural groundwater discharge, simulated transmissivity, and simulated storage properties. The model projections are a representation of possible effects.

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Comparisons to Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.

2008-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. We will compare model simulations of ozone, and the minor constituents that affect ozone, for the period around 1980 with newly released revised data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument on Nimbus 4. We will also compare model simulations for the period of the early 2000s with the data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HRDLS) on the Aura satellite. We will use these comparisons to examine the performance of the model for the present atmosphere and for the change that has occurred during the last 2 decades of ozone loss due to chlorine and bromine compounds released from chlorofluorocarbons and halons.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Wave-vector and polarization dependent impedance model for a hexagonal periodic metasurface exemplified through finite-difference time-domain simulations.

PubMed

Ding, Yi S; He, Yang

2017-08-21

An isotropic impedance sheet model is proposed for a loop-type hexagonal periodic metasurface. Both frequency and wave-vector dispersion are considered near the resonance frequency. Therefore both the angle and polarization dependences of the metasurface impedance can be properly and simultaneously described in our model. The constitutive relation of this model is transformed into auxiliary differential equations which are integrated into the finite-difference time-domain algorithm. Finally, a finite large metasurface sample under oblique illumination is used to test the model and the algorithm. Our model and algorithm can significantly increase the accuracy of the homogenization methods for modeling periodic metasurfaces.

A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, D.; Maule, A.

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

A reaction-diffusion malaria model with seasonality and incubation period.

PubMed

Bai, Zhenguo; Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-07-01

In this paper, we propose a time-periodic reaction-diffusion model which incorporates seasonality, spatial heterogeneity and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the parasite. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived, and it is shown that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text], while there is an endemic periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations indicate that prolonging the EIP may be helpful in the disease control, while spatial heterogeneity of the disease transmission coefficient may increase the disease burden.

Simulator for heterogeneous dataflow architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malekpour, Mahyar R.

1993-01-01

A new simulator is developed to simulate the execution of an algorithm graph in accordance with the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) rules. ATAMM is a Petri Net model which describes the periodic execution of large-grained, data-independent dataflow graphs and which provides predictable steady state time-optimized performance. This simulator extends the ATAMM simulation capability from a heterogenous set of resources, or functional units, to a more general heterogenous architecture. Simulation test cases show that the simulator accurately executes the ATAMM rules for both a heterogenous architecture and a homogenous architecture, which is the special case for only one processor type. The simulator forms one tool in an ATAMM Integrated Environment which contains other tools for graph entry, graph modification for performance optimization, and playback of simulations for analysis.

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veitzer, Seth A., E-mail: veitzer@txcorp.com; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan, E-mail: madhusnk@txcorp.com; Stoltz, Peter H., E-mail: phstoltz@txcorp.com

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H{sup −} source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. Inmore » particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H{sup −} ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.« less

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources.

PubMed

Veitzer, Seth A; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan; Stoltz, Peter H; Beckwith, Kristian R C

2016-02-01

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H(-) source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. In particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H(-) ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

The YAV-8B simulation and modeling. Volume 2: Program listing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Detailed mathematical models of varying complexity representative of the YAV-8B aircraft are defined and documented. These models are used in parameter estimation and in linear analysis computer programs while investigating YAV-8B aircraft handling qualities. Both a six degree of freedom nonlinear model and a linearized three degree of freedom longitudinal and lateral directional model were developed. The nonlinear model is based on the mathematical model used on the MCAIR YAV-8B manned flight simulator. This simulator model has undergone periodic updating based on the results of approximately 360 YAV-8B flights and 8000 hours of wind tunnel testing. Qualified YAV-8B flight test pilots have commented that the handling qualities characteristics of the simulator are quite representative of the real aircraft. These comments are validated herein by comparing data from both static and dynamic flight test maneuvers to the same obtained using the nonlinear program.

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Jeffrey E.; Andrisani, Dominick

1990-01-01

An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. Because of the model chosen, handling qualities information is also obtained. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a six-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation. The parameters obtained from the EKF analysis of flight data are compared to those obtained using frequency response analysis of the flight data. Time delays and damping ratios are compared and are in agreement. This technique demonstrates the potential to determine, in near real time, the extent of differences between computer models and the actual aircraft. Precise knowledge of these differences can help to determine the flying qualities of a test aircraft and lead to more efficient envelope expansion.

Global exponential periodicity and stability of discrete-time complex-valued recurrent neural networks with time-delays.

PubMed

Hu, Jin; Wang, Jun

2015-06-01

In recent years, complex-valued recurrent neural networks have been developed and analysed in-depth in view of that they have good modelling performance for some applications involving complex-valued elements. In implementing continuous-time dynamical systems for simulation or computational purposes, it is quite necessary to utilize a discrete-time model which is an analogue of the continuous-time system. In this paper, we analyse a discrete-time complex-valued recurrent neural network model and obtain the sufficient conditions on its global exponential periodicity and exponential stability. Simulation results of several numerical examples are delineated to illustrate the theoretical results and an application on associative memory is also given. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

“Overview and Evaluation of AQMEII Phase 2 Coupled ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation provides an overview of the second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initative (AQMEII). Activities in this phase are focused on the application and evaluation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models to assess how well these models can simulate the observed spatio-temporal variability in the optical and radiative characteristics of atmospheric aerosols and associated feedbacks among aerosols, radiation, clouds, and precipitation. To this end, these modeling systems are being applied for annual simulations over both North America and Europe using common emissions and boundary conditions for all modeling groups. We present an overview of these common input datasets, observational datasets for model evaluation, and case studies for diagnostic evaluation. In addition to this overview, we also present results from AQMEII Phase 2 WRF/CMAQ simulations over North America for both 2006 and 2010. The time period between 2006 and 2010 was characterized by a 35% reduction in U.S. SO2 emissions and 20% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions, providing an opportunity for dynamic model evaluation by investigating the impact of emission reductions on ambient concentrations as well as aerosol/radiation feedback effects. We present results of this dynamic evaluation. We also present a brief overview of initial results from WRF-Chem and GEM-MACH simulations performed for the same time period and domain as part of AQMEII Phase 2. The National Exposu

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

ARTICLES: Thermohydrodynamic models of the interaction of pulse-periodic radiation with matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Pis'mennyĭ, V. D.

1987-02-01

Experimental and theoretical investigations were made of the processes of drilling and deep melting of metals by pulsed and pulse-periodic laser radiation. Direct photography of the surface revealed molten metal splashing due to interaction with single CO2 laser pulses. A proposed thermohydrodynamic model was used to account for the experimental results and to calculate the optimal parameters of pulse-periodic radiation needed for deep melting. The melt splashing processes were simulated numerically.

A geostationary Earth orbit satellite model using Easy Java Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, Loo Kang; Hwee Goh, Giam

2013-01-01

We develop an Easy Java Simulation (EJS) model for students to visualize geostationary orbits near Earth, modelled using a Java 3D implementation of the EJS 3D library. The simplified physics model is described and simulated using a simple constant angular velocity equation. We discuss four computer model design ideas: (1) a simple and realistic 3D view and associated learning in the real world; (2) comparative visualization of permanent geostationary satellites; (3) examples of non-geostationary orbits of different rotation senses, periods and planes; and (4) an incorrect physics model for conceptual discourse. General feedback from the students has been relatively positive, and we hope teachers will find the computer model useful in their own classes.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Y-ray Millisecond Pulsars Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonthier, Peter L.; Billman, C.; Harding, A. K.

2013-04-01

We present preliminary results of a new population synthesis of millisecond pulsars (MSP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to better understand the model parameter space. We include empirical radio and γ-ray luminosity models that are dependent on the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. The magnitudes of the model luminosities are adjusted to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys and by Fermi, predicting the MSP birth rate in the Galaxy. We follow a similar set of assumptions that we have used in previous, more constrained Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters associated with the birth distributions such as those for the accretion rate, magnetic field and period distributions are also free to vary. With the large set of free parameters, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to explore the large and small worlds of the parameter space. We present preliminary comparisons of the simulated and detected distributions of radio and γ-ray pulsar characteristics. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program.

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posselt, Derek J.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Hou, Arthur Y.; Stephens, Graeme L.

2007-01-01

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

An underwater light attenuation scheme for marine ecosystem models.

PubMed

Penta, Bradley; Lee, Zhongping; Kudela, Raphael M; Palacios, Sherry L; Gray, Deric J; Jolliff, Jason K; Shulman, Igor G

2008-10-13

Simulation of underwater light is essential for modeling marine ecosystems. A new model of underwater light attenuation is presented and compared with previous models. In situ data collected in Monterey Bay, CA. during September 2006 are used for validation. It is demonstrated that while the new light model is computationally simple and efficient it maintains accuracy and flexibility. When this light model is incorporated into an ecosystem model, the correlation between modeled and observed coastal chlorophyll is improved over an eight-year time period. While the simulation of a deep chlorophyll maximum demonstrates the effect of the new model at depth.

FLAME: A platform for high performance computing of complex systems, applied for three case studies

DOE PAGES

Kiran, Mariam; Bicak, Mesude; Maleki-Dizaji, Saeedeh; ...

2011-01-01

FLAME allows complex models to be automatically parallelised on High Performance Computing (HPC) grids enabling large number of agents to be simulated over short periods of time. Modellers are hindered by complexities of porting models on parallel platforms and time taken to run large simulations on a single machine, which FLAME overcomes. Three case studies from different disciplines were modelled using FLAME, and are presented along with their performance results on a grid.

WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2013-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

Development of an on-line source-tagged model for sulfate, nitrate and ammonium: A modeling study for highly polluted periods in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wu, Jian-Bin; Wang, Zifa; Wang, Qian; Li, Jie; Xu, Jianming; Chen, HuanSheng; Ge, Baozhu; Zhou, Guangqiang; Chang, Luyu

2017-02-01

An on-line source-tagged model coupled with an air quality model (Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System, NAQPMS) was applied to estimate source contributions of primary and secondary sulfate, nitrate and ammonium (SNA) during a representative winter period in Shanghai. This source-tagged model system could simultaneously track spatial and temporal sources of SNA, which were apportioned to their respective primary precursors in a simulation run. The results indicate that in the study period, local emissions in Shanghai accounted for over 20% of SNA contributions and that Jiangsu and Shandong were the two major non-local sources. In particular, non-local emissions had higher contributions during recorded pollution periods. This suggests that the transportation of pollutants plays a key role in air pollution in Shanghai. The temporal contributions show that the emissions from the "current day" (emission contribution from the current day during which the model was simulating) contributed 60%-70% of the sulfate and ammonium concentrations but only 10%-20% of the nitrate concentration, while the previous days' contributions increased during the recorded pollution periods. Emissions that were released within three days contributed over 85% averagely for SNA in January 2013. To evaluate the source-tagged model system, the results were compared by sensitivity analysis (emission perturbation of -30%) and backward trajectory analysis. The consistency of the comparison results indicated that the source-tagged model system can track sources of SNA with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine the influence of long-range pollutant transport on trends in surface level O3 distributions. The WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations were recently performed for the period spanning 1990-2010 to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. Simulated trends in ozone and precursor species concentrations across the U.S. and the northern hemisphere over the past two decades are compared with those inferred from available measurements during this period. Additionally, the decoupled direct method (DDM) in CMAQ is used to estimate the sensitivity of O3 to emissions from different source regions across the northern hemisphere. The seasonal variations in source region contributions to background O3 is then estimated from these sensitivity calculations and will be discussed. A reduced form model combining these source region sensitivities estimated from DDM with the multi-decadal simulations of O3 distributions and emissions trends, is then developed to characterize the changing contributions of different source regions to background O3 levels across North America. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.

2015-02-01

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

Evaluation of effects of groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haugh, Connor J.

2016-08-10

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater-flow model was used to simulate the potential effects of future groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant in Shelby County, Tennessee. The scenario used in the simulation consisted of a 30-year average withdrawal period followed by a 30-day maximum withdrawal period. Effects of withdrawals at the Allen plant site on the Mississippi embayment aquifer system were evaluated by comparing the difference in simulated water levels in the aquifers at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and at the end of the scenario to a base case without the Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant withdrawals. Simulated potentiometric surface declines in the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site were about 7 feet at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11 feet at the end of the scenario. The affected area of the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site as delineated by the 4-foot potentiometric surface-decline contour was 2,590 acres at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11,380 acres at the end of the scenario. Simulated declines in the underlying Fort Pillow aquifer and overlying shallow aquifer were both less than 1 foot at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and the end of the scenario.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Contribution of Increasing CO2 and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States

Treesearch

David Schimel; Jerry Melillo; Hanqin Tian; A. David McGuire; David Kicklighter; Timothy Kittel; Nan Rosenbloom; Steven Running; Peter Thorton; Dennis Ojima; William Parton; Robin Kelly; Martin Sykes; Ron Neilson; Brian Rizzo

2000-01-01

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink...

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

Modeling laser-induced periodic surface structures: Finite-difference time-domain feedback simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skolski, J. Z. P., E-mail: j.z.p.skolski@utwente.nl; Vincenc Obona, J.; Römer, G. R. B. E.

2014-03-14

A model predicting the formation of laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs) is presented. That is, the finite-difference time domain method is used to study the interaction of electromagnetic fields with rough surfaces. In this approach, the rough surface is modified by “ablation after each laser pulse,” according to the absorbed energy profile, in order to account for inter-pulse feedback mechanisms. LIPSSs with a periodicity significantly smaller than the laser wavelength are found to “grow” either parallel or orthogonal to the laser polarization. The change in orientation and periodicity follow from the model. LIPSSs with a periodicity larger than the wavelengthmore » of the laser radiation and complex superimposed LIPSS patterns are also predicted by the model.« less

An analytical model for non-conservative pollutants mixing in the surf zone.

PubMed

Ki, Seo Jin; Hwang, Jin Hwan; Kang, Joo-Hyon; Kim, Joon Ha

2009-01-01

Accurate simulation of the surf zone is a prerequisite to improve beach management as well as to understand the fundamentals of fate and transport of contaminants. In the present study, a diagnostic model modified from a classic solute model is provided to illuminate non-conservative pollutants behavior in the surf zone. To readily understand controlling processes in the surf zone, a new dimensionless quantity is employed with index of kappa number (K, a ratio of inactivation rate to transport rate of microbial pollutant in the surf zone), which was then evaluated under different environmental frames during a week simulation period. The sensitivity analysis showed that hydrodynamics and concentration gradients in the surf zone mostly depend on n (number of rip currents), indicating that n should be carefully adjusted in the model. The simulation results reveal, furthermore, that large deviation typically occurs in the daytime, signifying inactivation of fecal indicator bacteria is the main process to control surf zone water quality during the day. Overall, the analytical model shows a good agreement between predicted and synthetic data (R(2) = 0.51 and 0.67 for FC and ENT, respectively) for the simulated period, amplifying its potential use in the surf zone modelling. It is recommended that when the dimensionless index is much larger than 0.5, the present modified model can predict better than the conventional model, but if index is smaller than 0.5, the conventional model is more efficient with respect to time and cost.

Applications of MMPBSA to Membrane Proteins I: Efficient Numerical Solutions of Periodic Poisson-Boltzmann Equation

PubMed Central

Botello-Smith, Wesley M.; Luo, Ray

2016-01-01

Continuum solvent models have been widely used in biomolecular modeling applications. Recently much attention has been given to inclusion of implicit membrane into existing continuum Poisson-Boltzmann solvent models to extend their applications to membrane systems. Inclusion of an implicit membrane complicates numerical solutions of the underlining Poisson-Boltzmann equation due to the dielectric inhomogeneity on the boundary surfaces of a computation grid. This can be alleviated by the use of the periodic boundary condition, a common practice in electrostatic computations in particle simulations. The conjugate gradient and successive over-relaxation methods are relatively straightforward to be adapted to periodic calculations, but their convergence rates are quite low, limiting their applications to free energy simulations that require a large number of conformations to be processed. To accelerate convergence, the Incomplete Cholesky preconditioning and the geometric multi-grid methods have been extended to incorporate periodicity for biomolecular applications. Impressive convergence behaviors were found as in the previous applications of these numerical methods to tested biomolecules and MMPBSA calculations. PMID:26389966

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Lunar tidal effects during the 2013 stratospheric sudden warming as simulated by the TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Fejer, B. G.; Yudin, V. A.; Pedatella, N. M.

2015-12-01

Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSW) are associated with strong planetary wave activity in the winterpolar stratosphere which result in a very disturbed middle atmosphere. The changes in the middle atmospherealter the propagation conditions and the nonlinear interactions of waves and tides, and result in SSW signals in the upper atmosphere in e.g., neutral winds, electric fields, ionospheric currents and plasma distribution. The upper atmosphere changes can be significant at low-latitudes even during medium solar flux conditions. Observationsalso reveal a strong lunar signal during SSW periods in the low latitude vertical drifts and in ionospheric quantities. Forbes and Zhang [2012] demonstrated that during the 2009 SSW period the Pekeris resonance peak of the atmosphere was altered such that the M2 and N2 lunar tidal componentsgot amplified. This study focuses on the effect of the lunar tidal forcing on the thermosphere-ionosphere system during theJanuary 2013 SSW period. We employthe NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM)with a nudging scheme using the Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of meteorological forcing on the upper atmosphere. Additionally lunar tidal forcingis included at the lower boundary of the model. To delineate the lunar tidal effects a base simulation without lunar forcingis employed. Interestingly, Jicamarca observations of that period reveal a suppression of the daytime vertical drift before and after the drift enhancement due the SSW. The simulation suggests that the modulation of the vertical driftmay be caused by the interplay of the migrating solar and lunar semidiurnal tide, and therefore can only be reproduced by the inclusion of both lunar and solar tidal forcings in the model. In this presentation the changes due to the lunar tidal forcing will be quantified, and compared to observations.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-01

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Integration of multiple theories for the simulation of laser interference lithography processes.

PubMed

Lin, Te-Hsun; Yang, Yin-Kuang; Fu, Chien-Chung

2017-11-24

The periodic structure of laser interference lithography (LIL) fabrication is superior to other lithography technologies. In contrast to traditional lithography, LIL has the advantages of being a simple optical system with no mask requirements, low cost, high depth of focus, and large patterning area in a single exposure. Generally, a simulation pattern for the periodic structure is obtained through optical interference prior to its fabrication through LIL. However, the LIL process is complex and combines the fields of optical and polymer materials; thus, a single simulation theory cannot reflect the real situation. Therefore, this research integrates multiple theories, including those of optical interference, standing waves, and photoresist characteristics, to create a mathematical model for the LIL process. The mathematical model can accurately estimate the exposure time and reduce the LIL process duration through trial and error.

Monte-Carlo simulation of defect-cluster nucleation in metals during irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakasuji, Toshiki; Morishita, Kazunori; Ruan, Xiaoyong

2017-02-01

A multiscale modeling approach was applied to investigate the nucleation process of CRPs (copper rich precipitates, i.e., copper-vacancy clusters) in α-Fe containing 1 at.% Cu during irradiation. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to investigate the nucleation process, with the rate theory equation analysis to evaluate the concentration of displacement defects, along with the molecular dynamics technique to know CRP thermal stabilities in advance. Our MC simulations showed that there is long incubation period at first, followed by a rapid growth of CRPs. The incubation period depends on irradiation conditions such as the damage rate and temperature. CRP's composition during nucleation varies with time. The copper content of CRPs shows relatively rich at first, and then becomes poorer as the precipitate size increases. A widely-accepted model of CRP nucleation process is finally proposed.

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be associated with modeled air quality concentrations. This paper presents novel approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and for evaluating the confidence limits of ozone exceedances using the WRF/CMAQ model simulations over the continental United States for the period from 1990 to 2010. The methodology presented here entails spectral decomposition of ozone time series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of the synoptic (i.e., weather-induced variation) and baseline (i.e., long-term variation attributable to emissions, policy, and trends) forcings embedded in the modeled and observed concentrations. A method is presented where the future year observations are estimated based on the changes in the concentrations predicted by the model applied to the current year observations. The proposed method can provide confidence limits for ozone exceedances for a given emission reduction scenario. We present and discuss these new approaches to identify the strengths of the model in representing the changes in simulated O3 air quality over the 21-year period. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates

Application of DIVWAG at Rodman Laboratory

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

Continue on reveree eide It neceaemry mnd identify by block number) DIVWAG War Game Simulation Mathematical Model 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on...parameters. Rodman Laboratory is using DIVWAG in a simulation mode. In this model of operation, once a game has been completed, a representative...a period of play by a blue (red) artillery battery as a function of range and game time). t Ü UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS

Evaluation of NASA GISS post-CMIP5 single column model simulated clouds and precipitation using ARM Southern Great Plains observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron; Xi, Baike; Li, Zhanqing

2017-03-01

The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) groundbased observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

Structural insights into human microsomal epoxide hydrolase by combined homology modeling, molecular dynamics simulations, and molecular docking calculations.

PubMed

Saenz-Méndez, Patricia; Katz, Aline; Pérez-Kempner, María Lucía; Ventura, Oscar N; Vázquez, Marta

2017-04-01

A new homology model of human microsomal epoxide hydrolase was derived based on multiple templates. The model obtained was fully evaluated, including MD simulations and ensemble-based docking, showing that the quality of the structure is better than that of only previously known model. Particularly, a catalytic triad was clearly identified, in agreement with the experimental information available. Analysis of intermediates in the enzymatic mechanism led to the identification of key residues for substrate binding, stereoselectivity, and intermediate stabilization during the reaction. In particular, we have confirmed the role of the oxyanion hole and the conserved motif (HGXP) in epoxide hydrolases, in excellent agreement with known experimental and computational data on similar systems. The model obtained is the first one that fully agrees with all the experimental observations on the system. Proteins 2017; 85:720-730. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Numerical simulation of cavitation and atomization using a fully compressible three-phase model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mithun, Murali-Girija; Koukouvinis, Phoevos; Gavaises, Manolis

2018-06-01

The aim of this paper is to present a fully compressible three-phase (liquid, vapor, and air) model and its application to the simulation of in-nozzle cavitation effects on liquid atomization. The model employs a combination of the homogeneous equilibrium barotropic cavitation model with an implicit sharp interface capturing volume of fluid (VOF) approximation. The numerical predictions are validated against the experimental results obtained for injection of water into the air from a step nozzle, which is designed to produce asymmetric cavitation along its two sides. Simulations are performed for three injection pressures, corresponding to three different cavitation regimes, referred to as cavitation inception, developing cavitation, and hydraulic flip. Model validation is achieved by qualitative comparison of the cavitation, spray pattern, and spray cone angles. The flow turbulence in this study is resolved using the large-eddy simulation approach. The simulation results indicate that the major parameters that influence the primary atomization are cavitation, liquid turbulence, and, to a smaller extent, the Rayleigh-Taylor and Kelvin-Helmholtz aerodynamic instabilities developing on the liquid-air interface. Moreover, the simulations performed indicate that periodic entrainment of air into the nozzle occurs at intermediate cavitation numbers, corresponding to developing cavitation (as opposed to incipient and fully developed cavitation regimes); this transient effect causes a periodic shedding of the cavitation and air clouds and contributes to improved primary atomization. Finally, the cone angle of the spray is found to increase with increased injection pressure but drops drastically when hydraulic flip occurs, in agreement with the relevant experiments.

Renewed circulation scheme of the Baltic Sea - based on the 40-year simulation with GETM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas

2015-04-01

The general circulation of the Baltic Sea has been characterized as cyclonic in all sub-basins based on numerous measurements and model simulations. From the long-term hydrodynamical simulation our model results have verified the general cyclonic circulation in the Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Bothnia, but the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga have shown tendency to anticyclonic circulation. We have applied the General Estuarine Transport Model ( GETM ) for the period of 1966 - 2006 with a 1 nautical mile horizontal resolution and density adaptive bottom following vertical coordinates to make it possible to simulate horizontal and vertical density gradients with better precision. The atmospheric forcing from dynamically downscaled ERA40-HIRLAM and parametrized lateral boundary conditions are applied. Model simulation show close agreement with measurements conducted in the main monitoring stations in the BS during the simulation period. The geostrophic adjustment of density driven currents along with the upward salinity flux due to entrainment could explain the anticyclonic circulation and strong coastal current. Mean vertical velocities show that upward and downward movements are forming closed vertical circulation loops along the bottom slope of the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Bothnia. The model has also reproduced patchy vertical movement across the BS with some distinctive areas of upward advective fluxes in the GoF along the thalweg. The distinctive areas of deepwater upwelling are also evident in the Gdansk Basin, western Gotland Basin, northern Gotland Basin and in the northen part of the Bothnia Sea.

Modeling of profilometry with laser focus sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischoff, Jörg; Manske, Eberhard; Baitinger, Henner

2011-05-01

Metrology is of paramount importance in submicron patterning. Particularly, line width and overlay have to be measured very accurately. Appropriated metrology techniques are scanning electron microscopy and optical scatterometry. The latter is non-invasive, highly accurate and enables optical cross sections of layer stacks but it requires periodic patterns. Scanning laser focus sensors are a viable alternative enabling the measurement of non-periodic features. Severe limitations are imposed by the diffraction limit determining the edge location accuracy. It will be shown that the accuracy can be greatly improved by means of rigorous modeling. To this end, a fully vectorial 2.5-dimensional model has been developed based on rigorous Maxwell solvers and combined with models for the scanning and various autofocus principles. The simulations are compared with experimental results. Moreover, the simulations are directly utilized to improve the edge location accuracy.

Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

2017-04-01

Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

Effect of numerical dispersion as a source of structural noise in the calibration of a highly parameterized saltwater intrusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.

2010-01-01

A model with a small amount of numerical dispersion was used to represent saltwater 7 intrusion in a homogeneous aquifer for a 10-year historical calibration period with one 8 groundwater withdrawal location followed by a 10-year prediction period with two groundwater 9 withdrawal locations. Time-varying groundwater concentrations at arbitrary locations in this low-10 dispersion model were then used as observations to calibrate a model with a greater amount of 11 numerical dispersion. The low-dispersion model was solved using a Total Variation Diminishing 12 numerical scheme; an implicit finite difference scheme with upstream weighting was used for 13 the calibration simulations. Calibration focused on estimating a three-dimensional hydraulic 14 conductivity field that was parameterized using a regular grid of pilot points in each layer and a 15 smoothness constraint. Other model parameters (dispersivity, porosity, recharge, etc.) were 16 fixed at the known values. The discrepancy between observed and simulated concentrations 17 (due solely to numerical dispersion) was reduced by adjusting hydraulic conductivity through the 18 calibration process. Within the transition zone, hydraulic conductivity tended to be lower than 19 the true value for the calibration runs tested. The calibration process introduced lower hydraulic 20 conductivity values to compensate for numerical dispersion and improve the match between 21 observed and simulated concentration breakthrough curves at monitoring locations. 22 Concentrations were underpredicted at both groundwater withdrawal locations during the 10-23 year prediction period.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Program Package for 3d PIC Model of Plasma Fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulhánek, Petr; Břeň, David

2007-08-01

A fully three dimensional Particle in Cell model of the plasma fiber had been developed. The code is written in FORTRAN 95, implementation CVF (Compaq Visual Fortran) under Microsoft Visual Studio user interface. Five particle solvers and two field solvers are included in the model. The solvers have relativistic and non-relativistic variants. The model can deal both with periodical and non-periodical boundary conditions. The mechanism of the surface turbulences generation in the plasma fiber was successfully simulated with the PIC program package.

The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation research activity for historical period model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural economic model groups around the...

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Anomalous T2 relaxation in normal and degraded cartilage.

PubMed

Reiter, David A; Magin, Richard L; Li, Weiguo; Trujillo, Juan J; Pilar Velasco, M; Spencer, Richard G

2016-09-01

To compare the ordinary monoexponential model with three anomalous relaxation models-the stretched Mittag-Leffler, stretched exponential, and biexponential functions-using both simulated and experimental cartilage relaxation data. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine both the ability of identifying a given model under high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions and the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates under more modest SNR as would be encountered clinically. Experimental transverse relaxation data were analyzed from normal and enzymatically degraded cartilage samples under high SNR and rapid echo sampling to compare each model. Both simulation and experimental results showed improvement in signal representation with the anomalous relaxation models. The stretched exponential model consistently showed the lowest mean squared error in experimental data and closely represents the signal decay over multiple decades of the decay time (e.g., 1-10 ms, 10-100 ms, and >100 ms). The stretched exponential parameter αse showed an inverse correlation with biochemically derived cartilage proteoglycan content. Experimental results obtained at high field suggest potential application of αse as a measure of matrix integrity. Simulation reflecting more clinical imaging conditions, indicate the ability to robustly estimate αse and distinguish between normal and degraded tissue, highlighting its potential as a biomarker for human studies. Magn Reson Med 76:953-962, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Assessing the contribution of different factors in RegCM4.3 regional climate model projections using the Factor Separation method over the Med-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zsolt Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo

2014-05-01

A set of regional climate model (RCM) simulations applying dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the Mediterranean domain specified by the international initiative Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were completed with the Regional Climate Model RegCM, version RegCM4.3. Two GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the RegCM: HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM) and MPI-ESM-MR (MPI). The simulations consist of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different "Reference Concentration Pathways" (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In total 15 simulations were carried out with 7 model physics configurations with varying convection and land surface schemes. The horizontal grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km and the simulated period in all cases is 1970-2100 (1970-2099 in case of HadGEM driven simulations). This ensemble includes a combination of experiments in which different model components are changed individually and in combination, and thus lends itself optimally to the application of the Factor Separation (FS) method. This study applies the FS method to investigate the contributions of different factors, along with their synergy, on a set of regional climate model (RCM) projections for the Mediterranean region. The FS method is applied to 6 projections for the period 1970-2100 performed with the regional model RegCM4.3 over the Med-CORDEX domain. Two different sets of factors are intercompared, namely the driving global climate model (HadGEM and MPI) boundary conditions against two model physics settings (convection scheme and irrigation). We find that both the GCM driving conditions and the model physics provide important contributions, depending on the variable analyzed (surface air temperature and precipitation), season (winter vs. summer) and time horizon into the future, while the synergy term mostly tends to counterbalance the contributions of the individual factors. We demonstrate the usefulness of the FS method to assess different sources of uncertainty in RCM-based regional climate projections.

Simulation of constituent transport in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, during unsteady-flow conditions, 1977 and 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Bales, Jerad D.

2006-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives for the Red River Valley Water Supply Project. Of those alternatives, six were considered for this study. Those six alternatives include a no-action alternative, two in-basin alternatives, and three interbasin alternatives. To address concerns of stakeholders and to provide information for an environmental impact statement, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, developed and applied a water-quality model to simulate the transport of total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, sodium, and total phosphorus during unsteady-flow conditions and to simulate the effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River. The physical domain of the model, hereinafter referred to as the Red River model, includes the Red River from Wahpeton, North Dakota, to Emerson, Manitoba, and the Sheyenne River from below Baldhill Dam, North Dakota, to the confluence with the Red River. Boundary conditions were specified for May 15 through October 31, 2003, and January 15 through June 30, 2004. Measured streamflow data were available for August 1 through October 31, 2003, and April 1 through June 30, 2004, but water-quality data were available only for September 15 through 16, 2003, and May 10 through 13, 2004. The water-quality boundary conditions were assumed to be time invariant for the entire calibration period and to be equal to the measured value. The average difference between the measured and simulated streamflows was less than 4 percent for both calibration periods, and most differences were less than 2 percent. The average differences are considered to be acceptable because the differences are less than 5 percent, or the same as the error that would be expected in a typical streamflow measurement. Simulated total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, and sodium concentrations generally were less than measured concentrations for both calibration periods. The average absolute differences generally were less than 25 percent. Total phosphorus was simulated as a nonconservative constituent by assuming that concentrations change according to a first-order decay rate. The average difference between the measured and simulated total phosphorus concentrations was 6.2 percent for the 2003 calibration period and -24 percent for the 2004 calibration period. The Red River model demonstrates sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions so a reasonable assumption is that the model can be used to compare relative effects of the various water-supply alternatives. The calibrated Red River model was used to simulate the effects of the six water-supply alternatives by using measured streamflows for September 1, 1976, through August 31, 1977, when streamflows throughout the Red River Basin were relatively low. Streamflows for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, were less than 17.9 cubic feet per second on 159 days of that 12-month period, and monthly average streamflows for the Red River at Grand Forks, North Dakota, and the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, were less than 30 percent of the respective long-term average monthly streamflows for 11 of the 12 months during September 1976 through August 1977. Water-quality boundary conditions were generated using a stochastic approach in which probability distributions derived from all available historical data on instream concentrations were used to produce daily concentrations at model boundaries. Return flow concentrations were estimated from source concentrations and current (2006) wastewater-treatment technology. Because no historical information on ungaged local inflow constituent concentrations is available to estimate those boundary conditions, time-invariant concentrations for the low-flow 2003 calibration period were used as the ungaged local inflow boundary conditions. The effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and

A parallelization method for time periodic steady state in simulation of radio frequency sheath dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Deuk-Chul; Shin, Sung-Sik; Yu, Dong-Hun

2017-10-01

In order to reduce the computing time in simulation of radio frequency (rf) plasma sources, various numerical schemes were developed. It is well known that the upwind, exponential, and power-law schemes can efficiently overcome the limitation on the grid size for fluid transport simulations of high density plasma discharges. Also, the semi-implicit method is a well-known numerical scheme to overcome on the simulation time step. However, despite remarkable advances in numerical techniques and computing power over the last few decades, efficient multi-dimensional modeling of low temperature plasma discharges has remained a considerable challenge. In particular, there was a difficulty on parallelization in time for the time periodic steady state problems such as capacitively coupled plasma discharges and rf sheath dynamics because values of plasma parameters in previous time step are used to calculate new values each time step. Therefore, we present a parallelization method for the time periodic steady state problems by using period-slices. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the developed method, one-dimensional fluid simulations are conducted for describing rf sheath dynamics. The result shows that speedup can be achieved by using a multithreading method.

Phase 1 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS): Model Output Data (2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B. E.; Zaehle, S.; Asao, S.; Dietze, M.; El-Masri, B.; Hanson, P. J.; Hickler, T.; Jain, A.; Luo, Y.; Parton, W. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y -P; Warlind, D.; Weng, E.; Oren, R.; Norby, R. J.

2015-01-01

These datasets comprise the model output from phase 1 of the FACE-MDS. These include simulations of the Duke and Oak Ridge experiments and also idealised long-term (300 year) simulations at both sites (please see the modelling protocol for details). Included as part of this dataset are modelling and output protocols. The model datasets are formatted according to the output protocols. Phase 1 datasets are reproduced here for posterity and reproducibility although the model output for the experimental period have been somewhat superseded by the Phase 2 datasets.

Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Robert W.; Aagaard, Brad T.

2011-01-01

Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010) and require, as inputs, only a general description of the fault location and geometry, event magnitude, and hypocenter, as would be done for a scenario event. For each rupture model, two Southern California Earthquake Center three-dimensional community seismic velocity models (CVM-4m and CVM-H62) are used, resulting in a total of 10 ground-motion simulations, which we compare with recorded ground motions. While the details of the motions vary across the simulations, the median levels match the observed peak ground velocities reasonably well, with the standard deviation of the residuals generally within 50% of the median. Simulations with the CVM-4m model yield somewhat lower variance than those with the CVM-H62 model. Both models tend to overpredict motions in the San Diego region and underpredict motions in the Mojave desert. Within the greater Los Angeles basin, the CVM-4m model generally matches the level of observed motions, whereas the CVM-H62 model tends to overpredict the motions, particularly in the southern portion of the basin. The variance in the peak velocity residuals is lowest for a rupture that has significant shallow slip (<5 km depth), whereas the variance in the residuals is greatest for ruptures with large asperities below 10 km depth. Overall, these results are encouraging and provide confidence in the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology, while also suggesting some regions in which the seismic velocity models may need improvement.

Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.

2017-12-01

There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and agricultural land development interact for the period 1790- present.

Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H; Ninnemann, Ulysses S

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ(13)C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ(13)C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features.

Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ13C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ13C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features. PMID:23422667

A quasi-biennial oscillation signal in general circulation model simulations.

PubMed

Cariolle, D; Amodei, M; Déqué, M; Mahfouf, J F; Simon, P; Teyssédre, H

1993-09-03

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a free atmospheric mode that affects the equatorial lower stratosphere. With a quasi-regular frequency, the mean equatorial zonal wind alternates from easterly to westerly regimes. This oscillation is zonally symmetric about the equator, has its largest amplitude in the latitudinal band from 20 degrees S to 20 degrees N, and has a mean period of about 27 months. The QBO appears to originate in the momentum deposition produced by the damping in the stratosphere of equatorial waves excited by diabatic thermal processes in the troposphere. The results of three 10-year simulations obtained with three general circulation models are reported, all of which show the development in the stratosphere of a QBO signal with a period and a spatial propagating structure that are in good agreement with observations without any ad hoc parameterization of equatorial wave forcing. Although the amplitude of the oscillation in the simulations is still less than the observed value, the result is promising for the development of global climate models.

Impacts of Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol on the tropical stratosphere in chemistry-climate model simulations using CCMI and CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revell, Laura E.; Stenke, Andrea; Luo, Beiping; Kremser, Stefanie; Rozanov, Eugene; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Peter, Thomas

2017-11-01

To simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the stratosphere, chemistry-climate models that do not include an online aerosol module require temporally and spatially resolved aerosol size parameters for heterogeneous chemistry and aerosol radiative properties as a function of wavelength. For phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and, later, for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) two such stratospheric aerosol data sets were compiled, whose functional capability and representativeness are compared here. For CCMI-1, the SAGE-4λ data set was compiled, which hinges on the measurements at four wavelengths of the SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) II satellite instrument and uses ground-based lidar measurements for gap-filling immediately after the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, when the stratosphere was too optically opaque for SAGE II. For CMIP6, the new SAGE-3λ data set was compiled, which excludes the least reliable SAGE II wavelength and uses measurements from CLAES (Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer) on UARS, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, for gap-filling following the Mt Pinatubo eruption instead of ground-based lidars. Here, we performed SOCOLv3 (Solar Climate Ozone Links version 3) chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past (1986-2005) to investigate the impact of the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 on stratospheric temperature and ozone and how this response differs depending on which aerosol data set is applied. The use of SAGE-4λ results in heating and ozone loss being overestimated in the tropical lower stratosphere compared to observations in the post-eruption period by approximately 3 K and 0.2 ppmv, respectively. However, less heating occurs in the model simulations based on SAGE-3λ, because the improved gap-filling procedures after the eruption lead to less aerosol loading in the tropical lower stratosphere. As a result, simulated tropical temperature anomalies in the model simulations based on SAGE-3λ for CMIP6 are in excellent agreement with MERRA and ERA-Interim reanalyses in the post-eruption period. Less heating in the simulations with SAGE-3λ means that the rate of tropical upwelling does not strengthen as much as it does in the simulations with SAGE-4λ, which limits dynamical uplift of ozone and therefore provides more time for ozone to accumulate in tropical mid-stratospheric air. Ozone loss following the Mt Pinatubo eruption is overestimated by up to 0.1 ppmv in the model simulations based on SAGE-3λ, which is a better agreement with observations than in the simulations based on SAGE-4λ. Overall, the CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data set, SAGE-3λ, allows SOCOLv3 to more accurately simulate the post-Pinatubo eruption period.

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

Intercomparison of Streamflow Simulations between WRF-Hydro and Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.; Salas, F.; Cui, Z.; Johnson, D.

2017-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) framework as an initial step towards spatially distributed modeling at River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Recently, the NOAA/NWS worked with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to implement the National Water Model (NWM) for nationally-consistent water resources prediction. The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro framework and is run at a 1km spatial resolution and 1-hour time step over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and contributing areas in Canada and Mexico. In this study, we compare streamflow simulations from HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro to observations from 279 USGS stations. For streamflow simulations, HL-RDHM is run on 4km grids with the temporal resolution of 1 hour for a 5-year period (Water Years 2008-2012), using a priori parameters provided by NOAA-NWS. The WRF-Hydro streamflow simulations for the same time period are extracted from NCAR's 23 retrospective run of the NWM (version 1.0) over CONUS based on 1km grids. We choose 279 USGS stations which are relatively less affected by dams or reservoirs, in the domains of six different RFCs. We use the daily average values of simulations and observations for the convenience of comparison. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate how HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro perform at USGS gauge stations. We compare daily time-series of observations and both simulations, and calculate the error values using a variety of error functions. Using these plots and error values, we evaluate the performances of HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro models. Our results show a mix of model performance across geographic regions.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

MODELLING SEDIMENT TRANSPORT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN MASS BALANCE PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

A sediment transport model is one component of the overall ensemble of models being developed for the Lake Michigan Mass Balance. The SEDZL model is being applied to simulate the fine-grained sediment transport in Lake Michigan for the 1982-1983 and 1994-1995 periods. Model perf...

Markov processes for the prediction of aircraft noise effects on sleep.

PubMed

Basner, Mathias; Siebert, Uwe

2010-01-01

Aircraft noise disturbs sleep and impairs recuperation. Authorities plan to expand Frankfurt airport. To quantitatively assess the effects of a traffic curfew (11 PM to 5 AM) at Frankfurt Airport on sleep structure. Experimental sleep study; polysomnography for 13 consecutive nights. Sleep laboratory. Subjects. 128 healthy subjects, mean age (SD) 38 (13) years, range 19 to 65, 59% female. Intervention. Exposure to aircraft noise via loudspeakers. A 6-state Markov state transition sleep model was used to simulate 3 noise scenarios with first-order Monte Carlo simulations: 1) 2005 traffic at Frankfurt Airport, 2) as simulation 1 but flights between 11 PM and 5 AM cancelled, and 3) as simulation 2, with flights between 11 PM and 5 AM from simulation 1 rescheduled to periods before 11 PM and after 5 AM. Probabilities for transitions between sleep stages were estimated with autoregressive multinomial logistic regression. Compared to a night without curfew, models indicate small improvements in sleep structure in nights with curfew, even if all traffic is rescheduled to periods before and after the curfew period. For those who go to bed before 10:30 PM or after 1 AM, this benefit is likely to be offset by the expected increase of air traffic during late evening and early morning hours. Limitations. Limited ecologic validity due to laboratory setting and subject sample. According to the decision analysis, it is unlikely that the proposed curfew at Frankfurt Airport substantially benefits sleep structure. Extensions of the model could be used to evaluate or propose alternative air traffic regulation strategies for Frankfurt Airport.

Near-road air pollutant concentrations of CO and PM 2.5: A comparison of MOBILE6.2/CALINE4 and generalized additive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2010-05-01

The contribution of vehicular traffic to air pollutant concentrations is often difficult to establish. This paper utilizes both time-series and simulation models to estimate vehicle contributions to pollutant levels near roadways. The time-series model used generalized additive models (GAMs) and fitted pollutant observations to traffic counts and meteorological variables. A one year period (2004) was analyzed on a seasonal basis using hourly measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) monitored near a major highway in Detroit, Michigan, along with hourly traffic counts and local meteorological data. Traffic counts showed statistically significant and approximately linear relationships with CO concentrations in fall, and piecewise linear relationships in spring, summer and winter. The same period was simulated using emission and dispersion models (Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model/MOBILE6.2; California Line Source Dispersion Model/CALINE4). CO emissions derived from the GAM were similar, on average, to those estimated by MOBILE6.2. The same analyses for PM 2.5 showed that GAM emission estimates were much higher (by 4-5 times) than the dispersion model results, and that the traffic-PM 2.5 relationship varied seasonally. This analysis suggests that the simulation model performed reasonably well for CO, but it significantly underestimated PM 2.5 concentrations, a likely result of underestimating PM 2.5 emission factors. Comparisons between statistical and simulation models can help identify model deficiencies and improve estimates of vehicle emissions and near-road air quality.

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model: Model Description and Its Application for Studying the TOGA COARE and GATE Convective Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized in two and three dimensions in order to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems occurred in west Pacific warm pool region and Atlantic ocean. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active period over the TOGA-COARE IFA (19-27 December 1992) and GATE (September 1 to 7, 1974). The TOGA COARE IFA period was also in the framework of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) WG4 case 2. We will examine the differences between the microphysics (warm rain and ice processes, evaporation/sublimation and condensation/deposition), Q1 (Temperature) and Q2 (Water vapor) budgets between these two convective events occurred in different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. The results from GCSS model intercomparsion will be presented. The new improvements (i.e., microphysics, cloud radiation interaction, surface processes and numerical advection scheme) of the GCE model as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed.

Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Floe Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Schweiger, A. J. B.; Stern, H. L., III; Steele, M.

2016-12-01

A thickness, floe size, and enthalpy distribution sea ice model was implemented into the Pan-arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) by coupling the Zhang et al. [2015] sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) theory with the Thorndike et al. [1975] ice thickness distribution (ITD) theory in order to explicitly simulate multicategory FSD and ITD simultaneously. A range of ice thickness and floe size observations were used for model calibration and validation. The expanded, validated PIOMAS was used to study sea ice response to atmospheric and oceanic changes in the Arctic, focusing on the interannual variability and trends of ice thickness and floe size over the period 1979-2015. It is found that over the study period both ice thickness and floe size have been decreasing steadily in the Arctic. The simulated ice thickness shows considerable spatiotemporal variability in recent years. As the ice cover becomes thinner and weaker, the model simulates an increasing number of small floes (at the low end of the FSD), which affects sea ice properties, particularly in the marginal ice zone.

Testing the Porcelli Sawtooth Trigger Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bateman, G.; Nave, M. F. F.; Parail, V.

2005-10-01

The Porcelli sawtooth trigger model [1] is implemented as a module for the National Transport Code Collaboration Module Library [2] and is tested using BALDUR and JETTO integrated modeling simulations of JET and other tokamak discharges. Statistical techniques are used to compute the average sawtooth period and the random scatter in sawtooth periods obtained during selected time intervals in the simulations compared with the corresponding statistical measures obtained from experimental data. It is found that the results are affected systematically by the fraction of magnetic reconnection during each sawtooth crash and by the model that is used for transport within the sawtooth mixing region. The physical processes that affect the sawtooth cycle in the simulations are found to involve an interaction among magnetic diffusion, reheating within the sawtooth mixing region, the instabilities that trigger a sawtooth crash in the Porcelli model, and the magnetic reconnection produced by each sawtooth crash. [1] F. Porcelli, et al., Plasma Phys. Contol. Fusion 38 (1996) 2163. [2] A.H. Kritz, et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 164 (2004) 108; http://w3.pppl.gov/NTCC. Supported by DOE DE-FG02-92-ER-54141.

Modelling the vestibular head tilt response.

PubMed

Heibert, D; Lithgow, B

2005-03-01

This paper attempts to verify the existence of potentially diagnostically significant periodic signals thought to exist in recordings of neural activity originating from the vestibular nerve, following a single tilt of the head. It then attempts to find the physiological basis of this signal, in particular focusing on the mechanical response of the vestibular system. Simple mechanical models of the semi circular canals having angular velocities applied to them were looked at. A simple single canal model was simulated using CFX software. Finally, a simple model of all three canals with elastic duct walls and a moving cupula was constructed. Pressure waves within the canals were simulated using water hammer or pressure transient theory. In particular, it was investigated whether pressure waves within the utricle following a square pulse angular velocity applied to the canal(s) may be responsible for quasi-periodic oscillatory signals. The simulations showed that there are no pressure waves resonating within the canals following a square pulse angular velocity applied to the canal(s). The results show that the oscillatory signals are most likely not mechanical in origin. It was concluded that further investigation is required.

A rapid solvent accessible surface area estimator for coarse grained molecular simulations.

PubMed

Wei, Shuai; Brooks, Charles L; Frank, Aaron T

2017-06-05

The rapid and accurate calculation of solvent accessible surface area (SASA) is extremely useful in the energetic analysis of biomolecules. For example, SASA models can be used to estimate the transfer free energy associated with biophysical processes, and when combined with coarse-grained simulations, can be particularly useful for accounting for solvation effects within the framework of implicit solvent models. In such cases, a fast and accurate, residue-wise SASA predictor is highly desirable. Here, we develop a predictive model that estimates SASAs based on Cα-only protein structures. Through an extensive comparison between this method and a comparable method, POPS-R, we demonstrate that our new method, Protein-C α Solvent Accessibilities or PCASA, shows better performance, especially for unfolded conformations of proteins. We anticipate that this model will be quite useful in the efficient inclusion of SASA-based solvent free energy estimations in coarse-grained protein folding simulations. PCASA is made freely available to the academic community at https://github.com/atfrank/PCASA. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling methane and nitrous oxide emissions from direct-seeded rice systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, Maegen B.; Li, Changsheng; Lee, Juhwan; Six, Johan; van Kessel, Chris; Linquist, Bruce A.

2015-10-01

Process-based modeling of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice fields is a practical tool for conducting greenhouse gas inventories and estimating mitigation potentials of alternative practices at the scale of management and policy making. However, the accuracy of these models in simulating CH4 and N2O emissions in direct-seeded rice systems under various management practices remains a question. We empirically evaluated the denitrification-decomposition model for estimating CH4 and N2O fluxes in California rice systems. Five and nine site-year combinations were used for calibration and validation, respectively. The model was parameterized for two cultivars, M206 and Koshihikari, and able to simulate 30% and 78% of the variation in measured yields, respectively. Overall, modeled and observed seasonal CH4 emissions were similar (R2 = 0.85), but there was poor correspondence in fallow period CH4 emissions and in seasonal and fallow period N2O emissions. Furthermore, management effects on seasonal CH4 emissions were highly variable and not well represented by the model (0.2-465% absolute relative deviation). Specifically, simulated CH4 emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rate but lacked sensitivity to the type of seeding system (dry seeding versus water seeding) and prior fallow period straw management. Additionally, N2O emissions were oversensitive to fertilizer N rate and field drainage. Sensitivity analysis showed that CH4 emissions were highly sensitive to changes in the root to total plant biomass ratio, suggesting that it is a significant source of model uncertainty. These findings have implications for model-directed field research that could improve model representation of paddy soils for application at larger spatial scales.

Summary of U.S. Geological Survey studies conducted in cooperation with the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, central Oklahoma, 2011–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, William J.; Becker, Carol J.; Ryter, Derek W.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2016-01-19

Numerical groundwater-flow models were created to characterize flow systems in aquifers underlying this study area and areas of particular interest within the study area. Those models were used to estimate sustainable groundwater yields from parts of the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, characterize groundwater/surface-water interactions, and estimate the effects of a 10-year simulated drought on streamflows and water levels in alluvial and bedrock aquifers. Pumping of wells at the Iron Horse Industrial Park was estimated to cause negligible infiltration of water from the adjoining North Canadian River. A 10-year simulated drought of 50 percent of normal recharge was tested for the period 1990–2000. For this period, the total amount of groundwater in storage was estimated to decrease by 8.6 percent in the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and approximately 0.2 percent in the Central Oklahoma aquifer, and groundwater flow to streams was estimated to decrease by 28–37 percent. This volume of groundwater loss showed that the Central Oklahoma aquifer is a bedrock aquifer that has relatively low rates of recharge from the land surface. The simulated drought decreased simulated streamflow, composed of base flow, in the North Canadian River at Shawnee, Okla., which did not recover to predrought conditions until the relatively wet year of 2007 after the simulated drought period.

Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenicek, Michal; Seibert, Jan; Staudinger, Maria

2018-01-01

It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.

Bifurcations of a periodically forced microbial continuous culture model with restrained growth rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Jingli; Yuan, Qigang

2017-08-01

A three dimensional microbial continuous culture model with a restrained microbial growth rate is studied in this paper. Two types of dilution rates are considered to investigate the dynamic behaviors of the model. For the unforced system, fold bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are detected, and numerical simulations reveal that the system undergoes degenerate Hopf bifurcation. When the system is periodically forced, bifurcation diagrams for periodic solutions of period-one and period-two are given by researching the Poincaré map, corresponding to different bifurcation cases in the unforced system. Stable and unstable quasiperiodic solutions are obtained by Neimark-Sacker bifurcation with different parameter values. Periodic solutions of various periods can occur or disappear and even change their stability, when the Poincaré map of the forced system undergoes Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, flip bifurcation, and fold bifurcation. Chaotic attractors generated by a cascade of period doublings and some phase portraits are given at last.

A new 3D maser code applied to flaring events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, M. D.; Mason, L.; Etoka, S.

2018-06-01

We set out the theory and discretization scheme for a new finite-element computer code, written specifically for the simulation of maser sources. The code was used to compute fractional inversions at each node of a 3D domain for a range of optical thicknesses. Saturation behaviour of the nodes with regard to location and optical depth was broadly as expected. We have demonstrated via formal solutions of the radiative transfer equation that the apparent size of the model maser cloud decreases as expected with optical depth as viewed by a distant observer. Simulations of rotation of the cloud allowed the construction of light curves for a number of observable quantities. Rotation of the model cloud may be a reasonable model for quasi-periodic variability, but cannot explain periodic flaring.

Study of Ozone Layer Variability near St. Petersburg on the Basis of SBUV Satellite Measurements and Numerical Simulation (2000-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virolainen, Y. A.; Timofeyev, Y. M.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

2017-12-01

A comparison between the numerical simulation results of ozone fields with different experimental data makes it possible to estimate the quality of models for their further use in reliable forecasts of ozone layer evolution. We analyze time series of satellite (SBUV) measurements of the total ozone column (TOC) and the ozone partial columns in two atmospheric layers (0-25 and 25-60 km) and compare them with the results of numerical simulation in the chemistry transport model (CTM) for the low and middle atmosphere and the chemistry climate model EMAC. The daily and monthly average ozone values, short-term periods of ozone depletion, and long-term trends of ozone columns are considered; all data sets relate to St. Petersburg and the period between 2000 and 2014. The statistical parameters (means, standard deviations, variations, medians, asymmetry parameter, etc.) of the ozone time series are quite similar for all datasets. However, the EMAC model systematically underestimates the ozone columns in all layers considered. The corresponding differences between satellite measurements and EMAC numerical simulations are (5 ± 5)% and (7 ± 7)% and (1 ± 4)% for the ozone column in the 0-25 and 25-60 km layers, respectively. The correspondent differences between SBUV measurements and CTM results amount to (0 ± 7)%, (1 ± 9)%, and (-2 ± 8)%. Both models describe the sudden episodes of the ozone minimum well, but the EMAC accuracy is much higher than that of the CTM, which often underestimates the ozone minima. Assessments of the long-term linear trends show that they are close to zero for all datasets for the period under study.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shumin; Li, Weibiao; Wen, Zhiping; Zhou, Mingsen; Lu, Youyu; Qian, Yu-Kun; Liu, Haoya; Fang, Rong

2018-04-01

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m (MWS10) from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea (SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS (1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP (2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit (2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.

RANS Simulation (Rotating Reference Frame Model [RRF]) of Single Full Scale DOE RM1 MHK Turbine

DOE Data Explorer

Javaherchi, Teymour; Stelzenmuller, Nick; Aliseda, Alberto

2013-04-10

Attached are the .cas and .dat files for the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation of a single full scale DOE RM1 turbine implemented in ANSYS FLUENT CFD-package. In this case study taking advantage of the symmetry of the DOE RM1 geometry, only half of the geometry is modeled using (Single) Rotating Reference Frame model [RRF]. In this model RANS equations, coupled with k-\\omega turbulence closure model, are solved in the rotating reference frame. The actual geometry of the turbine blade is included and the turbulent boundary layer along the blade span is simulated using wall-function approach. The rotation of the blade is modeled by applying periodic boundary condition to sets of plane of symmetry. This case study simulates the performance and flow field in both the near and far wake of the device at the desired operating conditions. The results of these simulations showed good agreement to the only publicly available numerical simulation of the device done in the NREL. Please see the attached paper.

Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation: Report of an FDA Public Workshop.

PubMed

Zhang, X; Duan, J; Kesisoglou, F; Novakovic, J; Amidon, G L; Jamei, M; Lukacova, V; Eissing, T; Tsakalozou, E; Zhao, L; Lionberger, R

2017-08-01

On May 19, 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) hosted a public workshop, entitled "Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation." The topic of mechanistic oral absorption modeling, which is one of the major applications of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation, focuses on predicting oral absorption by mechanistically integrating gastrointestinal transit, dissolution, and permeation processes, incorporating systems, active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and the drug product information, into a systemic mathematical whole-body framework. © 2017 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

SIVEH: numerical computing simulation of wireless energy-harvesting sensor nodes.

PubMed

Sanchez, Antonio; Blanc, Sara; Climent, Salvador; Yuste, Pedro; Ors, Rafael

2013-09-04

The paper presents a numerical energy harvesting model for sensor nodes, SIVEH (Simulator I-V for EH), based on I-V hardware tracking. I-V tracking is demonstrated to be more accurate than traditional energy modeling techniques when some of the components present different power dissipation at either different operating voltages or drawn currents. SIVEH numerical computing allows fast simulation of long periods of time-days, weeks, months or years-using real solar radiation curves. Moreover, SIVEH modeling has been enhanced with sleep time rate dynamic adjustment, while seeking energy-neutral operation. This paper presents the model description, a functional verification and a critical comparison with the classic energy approach.

Planning Models for Tuberculosis Control Programs

PubMed Central

Chorba, Ronald W.; Sanders, J. L.

1971-01-01

A discrete-state, discrete-time simulation model of tuberculosis is presented, with submodels of preventive interventions. The model allows prediction of the prevalence of the disease over the simulation period. Preventive and control programs and their optimal budgets may be planned by using the model for cost-benefit analysis: costs are assigned to the program components and disease outcomes to determine the ratio of program expenditures to future savings on medical and socioeconomic costs of tuberculosis. Optimization is achieved by allocating funds in successive increments to alternative program components in simulation and identifying those components that lead to the greatest reduction in prevalence for the given level of expenditure. The method is applied to four hypothetical disease prevalence situations. PMID:4999448

SIVEH: Numerical Computing Simulation of Wireless Energy-Harvesting Sensor Nodes

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Antonio; Blanc, Sara; Climent, Salvador; Yuste, Pedro; Ors, Rafael

2013-01-01

The paper presents a numerical energy harvesting model for sensor nodes, SIVEH (Simulator I–V for EH), based on I–V hardware tracking. I–V tracking is demonstrated to be more accurate than traditional energy modeling techniques when some of the components present different power dissipation at either different operating voltages or drawn currents. SIVEH numerical computing allows fast simulation of long periods of time—days, weeks, months or years—using real solar radiation curves. Moreover, SIVEH modeling has been enhanced with sleep time rate dynamic adjustment, while seeking energy-neutral operation. This paper presents the model description, a functional verification and a critical comparison with the classic energy approach. PMID:24008287

Capturing flood-to-drought transitions in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Haslinger, Klaus; Hofstätter, Michael; Salzmann, Manuela; Resch, Gernot

2017-04-01

In previous studies atmospheric cyclones have been investigated in terms of related precipitation extremes in Central Europe. Mediterranean (Vb-like) cyclones are of special relevance as they are frequently related to high atmospheric moisture fluxes leading to floods and landslides in the Alpine region. Another focus in this area is on droughts, affecting soil moisture and surface and sub-surface runoff as well. Such events develop differently depending on available pre-saturation of water in the soil. In a first step we investigated two time periods which encompass a flood event and a subsequent drought on very different time scales, one long lasting transition (2002/2003) and a rather short one between May and August 2013. In a second step we extended the investigation to the long time period 1950-2016. We focused on high spatial and temporal scales and assessed the currently achievable accuracy in the simulation of the Vb-events on one hand and following drought events on the other hand. The state-of-the-art regional climate model CCLM is applied in hindcast-mode simulating the single events described above, but also the time from 1948 to 2016 to evaluate the results from the short runs to be valid for the long time period. Besides the conventional forcing of the regional climate model at its lateral boundaries, a spectral nudging technique is applied. The simulations covering the European domain have been varied systematically different model parameters. The resulting precipitation amounts have been compared to E-OBS gridded European precipitation data set and a recent high spatially resolved precipitation data set for Austria (GPARD-6). For the drought events the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture and runoff has been investigated. Varying the spectral nudging setup helps us to understand the 3D-processes during these events, but also to identify model deficiencies. To improve the simulation of such events in the past, improves also the ability to assess a climate change signal in the recent and far future.

Understanding resonance graphs using Easy Java Simulations (EJS) and why we use EJS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, Loo Kang; Lee, Tat Leong; Chew, Charles; Wong, Darren; Tan, Samuel

2015-03-01

This paper reports a computer model simulation created using Easy Java Simulation (EJS) for learners to visualize how the steady-state amplitude of a driven oscillating system varies with the frequency of the periodic driving force. The simulation shows (N = 100) identical spring-mass systems being subjected to (1) a periodic driving force of equal amplitude but different driving frequencies, and (2) different amounts of damping. The simulation aims to create a visually intuitive way of understanding how the series of amplitude versus driving frequency graphs are obtained by showing how the displacement of the system changes over time as it transits from the transient to the steady state. A suggested ‘how to use’ the model is added to help educators and students in their teaching and learning, where we explain the theoretical steady-state equation time conditions when the model begins to allow data recording of maximum amplitudes to closely match the theoretical equation, and the steps to collect different runs of the degree of damping. We also discuss two of the design features in our computer model: displaying the instantaneous oscillation together with the achieved steady-state amplitudes, and the explicit world view overlay with scientific representation with different degrees of damping runs. Three advantages of using EJS include: (1) open source codes and creative commons attribution licenses for scaling up of interactively engaging educational practices; (2) the models made can run on almost any device, including Android and iOS; and (3) it allows the redefinition of physics educational practices through computer modeling.

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Qualitative and numerical analyses of the effects of river inflow variations on mixing diagrams in estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cifuentes, L.A.; Schemel, L.E.; Sharp, J.H.

1990-01-01

The effects of river inflow variations on alkalinity/salinity distributions in San Francisco Bay and nitrate/salinity distributions in Delaware Bay are described. One-dimensional, advective-dispersion equations for salinity and the dissolved constituents are solved numerically and are used to simulate mixing in the estuaries. These simulations account for time-varying river inflow, variations in estuarine cross-sectional area, and longitudinally varying dispersion coefficients. The model simulates field observations better than models that use constant hydrodynamic coefficients and uniform estuarine geometry. Furthermore, field observations and model simulations are consistent with theoretical 'predictions' that the curvature of propery-salinity distributions depends on the relation between the estuarine residence time and the period of river concentration variation. ?? 1990.

A mathematical and experimental simulation of the hematological response to weightlessness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimzey, S. L.; Leonard, J. I.; Johnson, P. C.

1979-01-01

A mathematical model of erythropoiesis control was used to simulate the effects of bedrest and zero-g on the circulating red cell mass. The model incorporates the best current understanding of the dynamics of red cell production and destruction and the associated feedback regulation. Specifically studied were the hemodynamic responses of a 28-day bedrest study devised to simulate Skylab experience. The results support the hypothesis that red cell loss during supine bedrest is a normal physiological feedback process in response to hemoconcentration enhanced tissue oxygenation and suppression of red cell production. Model simulation suggested the possibilities that this period was marked by some combination of increased oxygen-hemoglobin affinity, small reduction in mean red cell life span, ineffective erythropoiesis, or abnormal reticulocytosis.

From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

A model for the neural control of pineal periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira Cruz, Frederico Alan; Soares, Marilia Amavel Gomes; Cortez, Celia Martins

2016-12-01

The aim of this work was verify if a computational model associating the synchronization dynamics of coupling oscillators to a set of synaptic transmission equations would be able to simulate the control of pineal by a complex neural pathway that connects the retina to this gland. Results from the simulations showed that the frequency and temporal firing patterns were in the range of values found in literature.

A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

PubMed

Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

2013-12-15

This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation-Based Prediction of Equivalent Continuous Noises during Construction Processes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hong; Pei, Yun

2016-01-01

Quantitative prediction of construction noise is crucial to evaluate construction plans to help make decisions to address noise levels. Considering limitations of existing methods for measuring or predicting the construction noise and particularly the equivalent continuous noise level over a period of time, this paper presents a discrete-event simulation method for predicting the construction noise in terms of equivalent continuous level. The noise-calculating models regarding synchronization, propagation and equivalent continuous level are presented. The simulation framework for modeling the noise-affected factors and calculating the equivalent continuous noise by incorporating the noise-calculating models into simulation strategy is proposed. An application study is presented to demonstrate and justify the proposed simulation method in predicting the equivalent continuous noise during construction. The study contributes to provision of a simulation methodology to quantitatively predict the equivalent continuous noise of construction by considering the relevant uncertainties, dynamics and interactions. PMID:27529266

Development of high resolution simulations of the atmospheric environment using the MASS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Zack, John W.; Karyampudi, V. Mohan

1989-01-01

Numerical simulations were performed with a very high resolution (7.25 km) version of the MASS model (Version 4.0) in an effort to diagnose the vertical wind shear and static stability structure during the Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on 28 January 1986. These meso-beta scale simulations reveal that the strongest vertical wind shears were concentrated in the 200 to 150 mb layer at 1630 GMT, i.e., at about the time of the disaster. These simulated vertical shears were the result of two primary dynamical processes. The juxtaposition of both of these processes produced a shallow (30 mb deep) region of strong vertical wind shear, and hence, low Richardson number values during the launch time period. Comparisons with the Cape Canaveral (XMR) rawinsonde indicates that the high resolution MASS 4.0 simulation more closely emulated nature than did previous simulations of the same event with the GMASS model.

Simulation-Based Prediction of Equivalent Continuous Noises during Construction Processes.

PubMed

Zhang, Hong; Pei, Yun

2016-08-12

Quantitative prediction of construction noise is crucial to evaluate construction plans to help make decisions to address noise levels. Considering limitations of existing methods for measuring or predicting the construction noise and particularly the equivalent continuous noise level over a period of time, this paper presents a discrete-event simulation method for predicting the construction noise in terms of equivalent continuous level. The noise-calculating models regarding synchronization, propagation and equivalent continuous level are presented. The simulation framework for modeling the noise-affected factors and calculating the equivalent continuous noise by incorporating the noise-calculating models into simulation strategy is proposed. An application study is presented to demonstrate and justify the proposed simulation method in predicting the equivalent continuous noise during construction. The study contributes to provision of a simulation methodology to quantitatively predict the equivalent continuous noise of construction by considering the relevant uncertainties, dynamics and interactions.

Modelling of a stirling cryocooler regenerator under steady and steady - periodic flow conditions using a correlation based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishor Kumar, V. V.; Kuzhiveli, B. T.

2017-12-01

The performance of a Stirling cryocooler depends on the thermal and hydrodynamic properties of the regenerator in the system. CFD modelling is the best technique to design and predict the performance of a Stirling cooler. The accuracy of the simulation results depend on the hydrodynamic and thermal transport parameters used as the closure relations for the volume averaged governing equations. A methodology has been developed to quantify the viscous and inertial resistance terms required for modelling the regenerator as a porous medium in Fluent. Using these terms, the steady and steady - periodic flow of helium through regenerator was modelled and simulated. Comparison of the predicted and experimental pressure drop reveals the good predictive power of the correlation based method. For oscillatory flow, the simulation could predict the exit pressure amplitude and the phase difference accurately. Therefore the method was extended to obtain the Darcy permeability and Forchheimer’s inertial coefficient of other wire mesh matrices applicable to Stirling coolers. Simulation of regenerator using these parameters will help to better understand the thermal and hydrodynamic interactions between working fluid and the regenerator material, and pave the way to contrive high performance, ultra-compact free displacers used in miniature Stirling cryocoolers in the future.

The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wharton, Sonia; Simpson, Matthew; Osuna, Jessica

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. Themore » LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.« less

An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Rong; Schwartz, Mark D.; Donnelly, Alison; Liang, Liang

2016-03-01

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007-2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9-93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8-89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade ( p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871-2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade ( p < 0.02) during the 1970-2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade ( p < 0.01) during the 1970-2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade ( p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.

An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology.

PubMed

Yu, Rong; Schwartz, Mark D; Donnelly, Alison; Liang, Liang

2016-03-01

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007-2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9-93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8-89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade (p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871-2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade (p < 0.02) during the 1970-2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade (p < 0.01) during the 1970-2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade (p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.

Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

2017-04-01

The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in different environmental conditions, have been collected from RSE proprietary and public databases directly connected to the model. Finally, the possible pollution source has been chosen in correspondence with the offshore drilling wells for the exploitation of the "Ombrina Mare" oil field, located at a distance of 6 km from the coast, and the project includes a FPSO unit. A number of different scenarios have been simulated using the 3D model created by HyperSuite, in different environmental conditions and considering emission events of low intensity and long period or of high intensity and short period, located near the sea surface or near the sea bottom. For each scenario, a preliminary initialization in the fluid dynamic unperturbed conditions at the starting date has been carried out, from which the emission period followed by a properly duration of diffusion period of the pollutant has been simulated. The results allowed to evaluate the relevance of the effects due to the environmental parameters as the wind, sea current and tide, putting in evidence the capability of the methodology to support the safety requirements in the frame of off shore oil exploitation provided that a dynamic characterization of the environment parameters is accounted for a sufficient detail.

Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts

DOE PAGES

Ukkola, A. M.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Pitman, A. J.; ...

2016-10-13

Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ~3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ~8 times greater than observed and twice asmore » intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.« less

Self-Consistent Chaotic Transport in a High-Dimensional Mean-Field Hamiltonian Map Model

DOE PAGES

Martínez-del-Río, D.; del-Castillo-Negrete, D.; Olvera, A.; ...

2015-10-30

We studied the self-consistent chaotic transport in a Hamiltonian mean-field model. This model provides a simplified description of transport in marginally stable systems including vorticity mixing in strong shear flows and electron dynamics in plasmas. Self-consistency is incorporated through a mean-field that couples all the degrees-of-freedom. The model is formulated as a large set of N coupled standard-like area-preserving twist maps in which the amplitude and phase of the perturbation, rather than being constant like in the standard map, are dynamical variables. Of particular interest is the study of the impact of periodic orbits on the chaotic transport and coherentmore » structures. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that self-consistency leads to the formation of a coherent macro-particle trapped around the elliptic fixed point of the system that appears together with an asymptotic periodic behavior of the mean field. To model this asymptotic state, we introduced a non-autonomous map that allows a detailed study of the onset of global transport. A turnstile-type transport mechanism that allows transport across instantaneous KAM invariant circles in non-autonomous systems is discussed. As a first step to understand transport, we study a special type of orbits referred to as sequential periodic orbits. Using symmetry properties we show that, through replication, high-dimensional sequential periodic orbits can be generated starting from low-dimensional periodic orbits. We show that sequential periodic orbits in the self-consistent map can be continued from trivial (uncoupled) periodic orbits of standard-like maps using numerical and asymptotic methods. Normal forms are used to describe these orbits and to find the values of the map parameters that guarantee their existence. Numerical simulations are used to verify the prediction from the asymptotic methods.« less

Self-Consistent Chaotic Transport in a High-Dimensional Mean-Field Hamiltonian Map Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martínez-del-Río, D.; del-Castillo-Negrete, D.; Olvera, A.

We studied the self-consistent chaotic transport in a Hamiltonian mean-field model. This model provides a simplified description of transport in marginally stable systems including vorticity mixing in strong shear flows and electron dynamics in plasmas. Self-consistency is incorporated through a mean-field that couples all the degrees-of-freedom. The model is formulated as a large set of N coupled standard-like area-preserving twist maps in which the amplitude and phase of the perturbation, rather than being constant like in the standard map, are dynamical variables. Of particular interest is the study of the impact of periodic orbits on the chaotic transport and coherentmore » structures. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that self-consistency leads to the formation of a coherent macro-particle trapped around the elliptic fixed point of the system that appears together with an asymptotic periodic behavior of the mean field. To model this asymptotic state, we introduced a non-autonomous map that allows a detailed study of the onset of global transport. A turnstile-type transport mechanism that allows transport across instantaneous KAM invariant circles in non-autonomous systems is discussed. As a first step to understand transport, we study a special type of orbits referred to as sequential periodic orbits. Using symmetry properties we show that, through replication, high-dimensional sequential periodic orbits can be generated starting from low-dimensional periodic orbits. We show that sequential periodic orbits in the self-consistent map can be continued from trivial (uncoupled) periodic orbits of standard-like maps using numerical and asymptotic methods. Normal forms are used to describe these orbits and to find the values of the map parameters that guarantee their existence. Numerical simulations are used to verify the prediction from the asymptotic methods.« less

Point-source stochastic-method simulations of ground motions for the PEER NGA-East Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David

2015-01-01

Ground-motions for the PEER NGA-East project were simulated using a point-source stochastic method. The simulated motions are provided for distances between of 0 and 1200 km, M from 4 to 8, and 25 ground-motion intensity measures: peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and 5%-damped pseudoabsolute response spectral acceleration (PSA) for 23 periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10.0 s. Tables of motions are provided for each of six attenuation models. The attenuation-model-dependent stress parameters used in the stochastic-method simulations were derived from inversion of PSA data from eight earthquakes in eastern North America.

Modeling the impact of simulated educational interventions on the use and abuse of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States: a report on initial efforts.

PubMed

Wakeland, Wayne; Nielsen, Alexandra; Schmidt, Teresa D; McCarty, Dennis; Webster, Lynn R; Fitzgerald, John; Haddox, J David

2013-10-01

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data. After the base model was tested, logic to represent three educational interventions was added and the impact of each intervention on simulated overdose deaths was evaluated over a 7-year evaluation period, 2008 to 2015. Principal findings were that a prescriber education intervention not only reduced total overdose deaths in the model but also reduced the total number of persons who receive opioid analgesic therapy, medical user education not only reduced overdose deaths among medical users but also resulted in increased deaths from nonmedical use, and a "popularity" intervention sharply reduced overdose deaths among nonmedical users while having no effect on medical use. System dynamics modeling shows promise for evaluating potential interventions to ameliorate the adverse outcomes associated with the complex system surrounding the use of opioid analgesics to treat pain.

Modeling and Control of a Delayed Hepatitis B Virus Model with Incubation Period and Combination Treatment.

PubMed

Sun, Deshun; Liu, Fei

2018-06-01

In this paper, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model with an incubation period and delayed state and control variables is firstly proposed. Furthermore, the combination treatment is adopted to have a longer-lasting effect than mono-therapy. The equilibrium points and basic reproduction number are calculated, and then the local stability is analyzed on this model. We then present optimal control strategies based on the Pontryagin's minimum principle with an objective function not only to reduce the levels of exposed cells, infected cells and free viruses nearly to zero at the end of therapy, but also to minimize the drug side-effect and the cost of treatment. What's more, we develop a numerical simulation algorithm for solving our HBV model based on the combination of forward and backward difference approximations. The state dynamics of uninfected cells, exposed cells, infected cells, free viruses, CTL and ALT are simulated with or without optimal control, which show that HBV is reduced nearly to zero based on the time-varying optimal control strategies whereas the disease would break out without control. At last, by the simulations, we prove that strategy A is the best among the three kinds of strategies we adopt and further comparisons have been done between model (1) and model (2).

Multiple-body simulation with emphasis on integrated Space Shuttle vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Ing-Tsau

1993-01-01

The program to obtain intergrid communications - Pegasus - was enhanced to make better use of computing resources. Periodic block tridiagonal and penta-diagonal diagonal routines in OVERFLOW were modified to use a better algorithm to speed up the calculation for grids with periodic boundary conditions. Several programs were added to collar grid tools and a user friendly shell script was developed to help users generate collar grids. User interface for HYPGEN was modified to cope with the changes in HYPGEN. ET/SRB attach hardware grids were added to the computational model for the space shuttle and is currently incorporated into the refined shuttle model jointly developed at Johnson Space Center and Ames Research Center. Flow simulation for the integrated space shuttle vehicle at flight Reynolds number was carried out and compared with flight data as well as the earlier simulation for wind tunnel Reynolds number.

Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

2009-09-01

In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, Dennis J., Jr.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground tracks surrounding the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/ Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, D. J.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (TIP) ground tracks surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Rodgers, Arthur; Brocher, Thomas M.; Simpson, Robert W.; Dreger, Douglas; Petersson, N. Anders; Larsen, Shawn C.; Ma, Shuo; Jachens, Robert C.

2010-01-01

We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with about 50% of the urban area experiencing modified Mercalli intensity VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18 Oakland earthquake and the 2007 Mw 5.45 Alum Rock earthquake show that the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area for Hayward fault earthquakes, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions for the suite of scenarios exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute much of this difference to the seismic velocity structure in the San Francisco Bay area and how the NGA models account for basin amplification; the NGA relations may underpredict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins. The simulations also suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

Simulating the heat budget for waste as it is placed within a landfill operating in a northern climate.

PubMed

Megalla, Dina; Van Geel, Paul J; Doyle, James T

2016-09-01

A landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) facility in Ste. Sophie, Quebec was instrumented with sensors which measure temperature, oxygen, moisture content, settlement, total earth pressure, electrical conductivity and mounding of leachate. These parameters were monitored during the operating phase of the landfill in order to better understand the biodegradation and waste stabilization processes occurring within a LFGTE facility. Conceptual and numerical models were created to describe the heat transfer processes which occur within five waste lifts placed over a two-year period. A finite element model was created to simulate the temperatures within the waste and estimate the heat budget over a four and a half year period. The calibrated model was able to simulate the temperatures measured to date within the instrumented waste profile at the site. The model was used to evaluate the overall heat budget for the waste profile. The model simulations and heat budget provide a better understanding of the heat transfer processes occurring within the landfill and the relative impact of the various heat source/sink and storage terms. Aerobic biodegradation appears to play an important role in the overall heat budget at this site generating 36% of the total heat generated within the waste profile during the waste placement stages of landfill operations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CHARMM-GUI ligand reader and modeler for CHARMM force field generation of small molecules.

PubMed

Kim, Seonghoon; Lee, Jumin; Jo, Sunhwan; Brooks, Charles L; Lee, Hui Sun; Im, Wonpil

2017-06-05

Reading ligand structures into any simulation program is often nontrivial and time consuming, especially when the force field parameters and/or structure files of the corresponding molecules are not available. To address this problem, we have developed Ligand Reader & Modeler in CHARMM-GUI. Users can upload ligand structure information in various forms (using PDB ID, ligand ID, SMILES, MOL/MOL2/SDF file, or PDB/mmCIF file), and the uploaded structure is displayed on a sketchpad for verification and further modification. Based on the displayed structure, Ligand Reader & Modeler generates the ligand force field parameters and necessary structure files by searching for the ligand in the CHARMM force field library or using the CHARMM general force field (CGenFF). In addition, users can define chemical substitution sites and draw substituents in each site on the sketchpad to generate a set of combinatorial structure files and corresponding force field parameters for throughput or alchemical free energy simulations. Finally, the output from Ligand Reader & Modeler can be used in other CHARMM-GUI modules to build a protein-ligand simulation system for all supported simulation programs, such as CHARMM, NAMD, GROMACS, AMBER, GENESIS, LAMMPS, Desmond, OpenMM, and CHARMM/OpenMM. Ligand Reader & Modeler is available as a functional module of CHARMM-GUI at http://www.charmm-gui.org/input/ligandrm. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Effects of structural flexibility of wings in flapping flight of butterfly.

PubMed

Senda, Kei; Obara, Takuya; Kitamura, Masahiko; Yokoyama, Naoto; Hirai, Norio; Iima, Makoto

2012-06-01

The objective of this paper is to clarify the effects of structural flexibility of wings of a butterfly in flapping flight. For this purpose, a dynamics model of a butterfly is derived by Lagrange's method, where the butterfly is considered as a rigid multi-body system. The panel method is employed to simulate the flow field and the aerodynamic forces acting on the wings. The mathematical model is validated by the agreement of the numerical result with the experimentally measured data. Then, periodic orbits of flapping-of-wings flights are parametrically searched in order to fly the butterfly models. Almost periodic orbits are found, but they are unstable. Deformation of the wings is modeled in two ways. One is bending and its effect on the aerodynamic forces is discussed. The other is passive wing torsion caused by structural flexibility. Numerical simulations demonstrate that flexible torsion reduces the flight instability.

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2015, CMAQ version 5.1 was released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.0.2 and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1 simulations were performed to assess the impact of these improvements on the model results. These results will be presented, along with a base evaluation of the performance of the CMAQv5.1 modeling system against available surface and upper-air measurements available during the time period simulated. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, proces

Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Z.-S.; Nisancioglu, K. H.; Chandler, M. A.; Haywood, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Ramstein, G.; Stepanek, C.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Chan, W. -L.; Sohl, L. E.

2013-01-01

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat

Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers modelmore » bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). In contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.« less

Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

Underestimation of simulated N2O flux in a model comparison of DayCent, DNDC, and EPIC

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process-based models are increasingly used as tool for studying complex agroecosystem interactions N2O emissions from agricultural fields. The widespread use of these models to conduct research and inform policy benefits from periodic model comparisons that assess the state of agroecosystem modeling...

Simulating and Analyzing Long-Term Changes in Emissions, Air Quality, Aerosol Feedback Effects and Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation covers work performed by the authors to characterize changes in emissions over the 1990 – 2010 time period, quantify the effects of these emission changes on air quality and aerosol/radiation feedbacks using both observations and model simulations, and fin...

Interpreting Predictions from the SAPRC07 Mechanism Based on Regional and Continental Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The SAPRC07T mechanism is implemented and evaluated in the CMAQ air quality model. The implementation is described and tested with simulations over the United States for two periods. The evaluation compares results against observations for ozone and particulate matter as well as ...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

An image-based reaction field method for electrostatic interactions in molecular dynamics simulations of aqueous solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuchun; Baumketner, Andrij; Deng, Shaozhong; Xu, Zhenli; Jacobs, Donald; Cai, Wei

2009-10-01

In this paper, a new solvation model is proposed for simulations of biomolecules in aqueous solutions that combines the strengths of explicit and implicit solvent representations. Solute molecules are placed in a spherical cavity filled with explicit water, thus providing microscopic detail where it is most needed. Solvent outside of the cavity is modeled as a dielectric continuum whose effect on the solute is treated through the reaction field corrections. With this explicit/implicit model, the electrostatic potential represents a solute molecule in an infinite bath of solvent, thus avoiding unphysical interactions between periodic images of the solute commonly used in the lattice-sum explicit solvent simulations. For improved computational efficiency, our model employs an accurate and efficient multiple-image charge method to compute reaction fields together with the fast multipole method for the direct Coulomb interactions. To minimize the surface effects, periodic boundary conditions are employed for nonelectrostatic interactions. The proposed model is applied to study liquid water. The effect of model parameters, which include the size of the cavity, the number of image charges used to compute reaction field, and the thickness of the buffer layer, is investigated in comparison with the particle-mesh Ewald simulations as a reference. An optimal set of parameters is obtained that allows for a faithful representation of many structural, dielectric, and dynamic properties of the simulated water, while maintaining manageable computational cost. With controlled and adjustable accuracy of the multiple-image charge representation of the reaction field, it is concluded that the employed model achieves convergence with only one image charge in the case of pure water. Future applications to pKa calculations, conformational sampling of solvated biomolecules and electrolyte solutions are briefly discussed.

Computer simulation of vasectomy for wolf control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haight, R.G.; Mech, L.D.

1997-01-01

Recovering gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations in the Lake Superior region of the United States are prompting state management agencies to consider strategies to control population growth. In addition to wolf removal, vasectomy has been proposed. To predict the population effects of different sterilization and removal strategies, we developed a simulation model of wolf dynamics using simple rules for demography and dispersal. Simulations suggested that the effects of vasectomy and removal in a disjunct population depend largely on the degree of annual immigration. With low immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production and resulted in lower rates of territory recolonization. Consequently, average pack size, number of packs, and population size were significantly less than those for an untreated population. Periodically removing a proportion of the population produced roughly the same trends as did sterilization; however, more than twice as many wolves had to be removed than sterilized. With high immigration, periodic sterilization reduced pup production but not territory recolonization and produced only moderate reductions in population size relative to an untreated population. Similar reductions in population size were obtained by periodically removing large numbers of wolves. Our analysis does not address the possible effects of vasectomy on larger wolf populations, but it suggests that the subject should be considered through modeling or field testing.

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

Hydrology, water quality, and simulation of ground-water flow at a taconite-tailings basin near Keewatin, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myette, C.F.

1991-01-01

Numerical-model simulations of ground-water flow near the vicinity of the tailings basin indicate that, if areal recharge were doubled during spring and fall, water levels in wells could average about 4 feet above 1983 levels during these periods. Model results indicate that water levels in the tailings could possibly remain about 5 feet above 1983 levels at the end of the year. Water levels in the tailings at the outlet of the basin could be about 1 foot above 1983 levels during the spring stress period and could be nearly 1.5 feet above 1983 levels during the fall stress period. Under these hypothetical climatic conditions, ground-water contribution to discharge at the outlet could be about 50 cubic feet per second during spring and about 80 cubic feet per second during fall.

Three-Dimensional Simulations of Electron Beams Focused by Periodic Permanent Magnets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.

1999-01-01

A fully three-dimensional (3D) model of an electron beam focused by a periodic permanent magnet (PPM) stack has been developed. First, the simulation code MAFIA was used to model a PPM stack using the magnetostatic solver. The exact geometry of the magnetic focusing structure was modeled; thus, no approximations were made regarding the off-axis fields. The fields from the static solver were loaded into the 3D particle-in-cell (PIC) solver of MAFIA where fully 3D behavior of the beam was simulated in the magnetic focusing field. The PIC solver computes the time-integration of electromagnetic fields simultaneously with the time integration of the equations of motion of charged particles that move under the influence of those fields. Fields caused by those moving charges are also taken into account; thus, effects like space charge and magnetic forces between particles are fully simulated. The electron beam is simulated by a number of macro-particles. These macro-particles represent a given charge Q amounting to that of several million electrons in order to conserve computational time and memory. Particle motion is unrestricted, so particle trajectories can cross paths and move in three dimensions under the influence of 3D electric and magnetic fields. Correspondingly, there is no limit on the initial current density distribution of the electron beam, nor its density distribution at any time during the simulation. Simulation results including beam current density, percent ripple and percent transmission will be presented, and the effects current, magnetic focusing strength and thermal velocities have on beam behavior will be demonstrated using 3D movies showing the evolution of beam characteristics in time and space. Unlike typical beam optics models, this 3D model allows simulation of asymmetric designs such as non- circularly symmetric electrostatic or magnetic focusing as well as the inclusion of input/output couplers.

Optimization of global model composed of radial basis functions using the term-ranking approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Peng; Tao, Chao, E-mail: taochao@nju.edu.cn; Liu, Xiao-Jun

2014-03-15

A term-ranking method is put forward to optimize the global model composed of radial basis functions to improve the predictability of the model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined by numerical simulation and experimental data. Numerical simulations indicate that this method can significantly lengthen the prediction time and decrease the Bayesian information criterion of the model. The application to real voice signal shows that the optimized global model can capture more predictable component in chaos-like voice data and simultaneously reduce the predictable component (periodic pitch) in the residual signal.

Regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over MENA-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Salvatore; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam

2014-05-01

In the frame of WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a set of common Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) domains has been defined, as a prerequisite for the development of model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. In this work, climate simulations have been performed over MENA-CORDEX domain, which includes North-Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian peninsula. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been used. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A series of simulations has been conducted over the MENA-CORDEX area at spatial resolution of 0.44°. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust the model configuration to better reproduce the observed climate data. The numerical simulations were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (horizontal resolution of 0.703°) for the period 1979-1984; the first year, was considered as a spin up period. The validation was performed by using several data sets: CRU data set was used to validate temperature, precipitation and cloud cover; MERRA data set was used to validate temperature and precipitation and GPCP for precipitation. The model sensitivity to the external parameters was tested considering two different configurations for the surface albedo. In the first one, albedo is only function of soil-type whereas in the second configuration it is prescribed by two external fields for dry and saturated soil based on MODIS data. Moreover, we tested two aerosol distributions as well, namely the default Tanre aerosol distribution and aerosol maps according to Tegen (NASA/GISS). We found, as expected, a significant sensitivity, in particular on the African region. We also varied tuning and physical parameters, such as the scaling factor for the thickness of the laminar boundary layer for heat, which defines the layer with non-turbulent characteristics, mean entrainment rate for shallow convection, cloud ice threshold for autoconversion, radiation and clouds. We choose such parameters following several literature works, which showed that these parameters mostly affect the fields simulated by the model. However, it is known that the sensitivity of a RCM with respect to parameter variations depends, in general, on the model domain, the temporal and spatial scales and the model variables considered. We made a first set of simulations varying one parameter at a time, using Taylor's diagrams, as well as seasonal cycles and bias maps to take tracking changes in the model performance. Successively, we run a second set of simulations in which we varied two or three parameters at a time to get an optimal configuration. The selected configuration is being used to carry out simulations on a 30-years past period, starting from 1979, for three horizontal resolutions, namely 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°.

An Ecosystem Simulation Model for Methane Production and Emission from Wetlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Previous experimental studies suggest that methane emission from wetland is influenced by multiple interactive pathways of gas production and transport through soil and sediment layers to the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate a new simulation model of methane production and emission in wetland soils that was developed initially to help identify key processes that regulate methanogenesis and net flux of CH4 to the air, but which is designed ultimately for regional simulation using remotely sensed inputs for land cover characteristics. The foundation for these computer simulations is based on a well-documented model (CASA) of ecosystem production and carbon cycling in the terrestrial blaspheme. Modifications to represent flooded wetland soils and anaerobic decomposition include three new sub-models for: (1) layered soil temperature and water table depth (WTD) as a function of daily climate drivers, (2) CH4 production within the anoxic soil layer as a function of WTD and CO2 production under poorly drained conditions, and (3) CH4 gaseous transport pathways (molecular diffusion, ebullition, and plant vascular transport) as a function of WTD and ecosystem type. The model was applied and tested using climate and ecological data to characterize tundra wetland sites near Fairbanks, Alaska studied previously by Whalen and Reeburgh. Comparison of model predictions to measurements of soil temperature and thaw depth, water-table depth, and CH4 emissions over a two year period suggest that inter-site differences in soil physical conditions and methane fluxes could be reproduced accurately for selected periods. Day-to-day comparison of predicted emissions to measured CH4 flux rates reveals good agreement during the early part of the thaw season, but the model tends to underestimate production of CH4 during the months of July and August in both test years. Important seasonal effects, including that of falling WTD during these periods, are apparently overlooked in the model formulation. Nevertheless, reasonably close agreement was achieved between the model's mean daily and seasonal estimates of CH4 flux and observed emission rates for northern wetland ecosystems. Several features of the model are identified as crucial to more accurate prediction of wetland methane emission, including the capacity to incorporate influences of localized topographic and hydrologic features on site-specific soil temperature and WTD dynamics, and mechanistic simulation of methane emission transport pathways from within the soil profile.

CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

2018-03-01

This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2017-02-01

A new dataset of surface temperature over North America has been constructed by merging climate model results and empirical tree-ring data through the application of an optimal interpolation algorithm. Errors of both the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulation and the tree-ring reconstruction were considered to optimize the combination of the two elements. Variance matching was used to reconstruct the surface temperature series. The model simulation provided the background field, and the error covariance matrix was estimated statistically using samples from the simulation results with a running 31-year window for each grid. Thus, the merging process could continue with a time-varying gain matrix. This merging method (MM) was tested using two types of experiment, and the results indicated that the standard deviation of errors was about 0.4 °C lower than the tree-ring reconstructions and about 0.5 °C lower than the model simulation. Because of internal variabilities and uncertainties in the external forcing data, the simulated decadal warm-cool periods were readjusted by the MM such that the decadal variability was more reliable (e.g., the 1940-1960s cooling). During the two centuries (1601-1800 AD) of the preindustrial period, the MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature, which is in accordance with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Compared with pure CCSM4 simulations, it was demonstrated that the MM brought a significant improvement to the decadal variability of the gridded temperature via the merging of temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.

Simulation of ground-water flow and pumpage in Kings and Queens Counties, Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Misut, Paul E.; Monti, Jack

1999-01-01

The potential effects of using ground water as a supplemental source of supply in Kings and Queens Counties were evaluated through a 4-layer finite-difference ground-water-flow model with a uniform grid spacing of 1,333 feet. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions of an existing regional ground-water-flow model of Long Island with a uniform grid spacing of 4,000 feet were refined for use in the finer grid model of Kings and Queens Counties. The model is calibrated to average pumping stresses that correspond to presumed steady-state conditions of 1983 and 1991. A transient-state simulation of the year-by- year transition between these two conditions was also conducted.Pumping scenarios representing public-supply withdrawals of 100, 150, and 400 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) were simulated to determine the duration of sustainable pumpage, defined as the length of time before a particular pumping rate induces landward hydraulic gradients from areas of salty ground water. The simulations indicate the following hydrologically feasible scenarios:(1) Pumpage of 100 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 10 months, followed by a 46-month period of pumping at reduced (1991) rates, to allow water levels to recover to 90 percent of 1991 levels.(2) Pumpage of 150 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 6 months, followed by a 79-month period of pumping at a reduced (1991) rate.(3) Pumpage of 400 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 3 months from an initial condition of maximum aquifer storage.Each of these scenarios could be modified by injecting surplus water from upstate reservoirs, available from January to May, into the proposed wells. Injection at half the pumpage rate during the recovery period reduces the recovery period to 14 months in scenario 1, 6 months in scenario 2, and 9 months in scenario 3.

Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yeon-Woo; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.

Modelling approaches: the case of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Heeg, Bart M S; Damen, Joep; Buskens, Erik; Caleo, Sue; de Charro, Frank; van Hout, Ben A

2008-01-01

Schizophrenia is a chronic disease characterized by periods of relative stability interrupted by acute episodes (or relapses). The course of the disease may vary considerably between patients. Patient histories show considerable inter- and even intra-individual variability. We provide a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of three modelling techniques that have been used in schizophrenia: decision trees, (cohort and micro-simulation) Markov models and discrete event simulation models. These modelling techniques are compared in terms of building time, data requirements, medico-scientific experience, simulation time, clinical representation, and their ability to deal with patient heterogeneity, the timing of events, prior events, patient interaction, interaction between co-variates and variability (first-order uncertainty). We note that, depending on the research question, the optimal modelling approach should be selected based on the expected differences between the comparators, the number of co-variates, the number of patient subgroups, the interactions between co-variates, and simulation time. Finally, it is argued that in case micro-simulation is required for the cost-effectiveness analysis of schizophrenia treatments, a discrete event simulation model is best suited to accurately capture all of the relevant interdependencies in this chronic, highly heterogeneous disease with limited long-term follow-up data.

Assessment of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole in the CESM—Impacts of atmospheric physics and model resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhixiong; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Zhou, Lei; Li, Xiaojing; Lian, Tao; Ul Islam, Siraj

2016-12-01

This study examines the possible impacts of coupling processes on simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Emphasis is placed on the atmospheric model resolution and physics. Five experiments were conducted for this purpose, including one control run of the ocean-only model, four coupled experiments using two different versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5) and two different resolutions. The results show that the control run could effectively simulate various features of the IOD. The coupled experiments run at the higher resolution yielded more realistic IOD period and intensity than their counterparts at the low resolution. The coupled experiments using CAM5 generally showed a better simulation skill in the tropical Indian SST climatology and phase-locking than those using CAM4, but the wind anomalies were stronger and the IOD period were longer in the former experiments than in the latter. In all coupled experiments, the IOD intensity was much stronger than the observed intensity, which is attributable to wind-thermocline depth feedback and thermocline depth-subsurface temperature feedback. The CAM5 physics seems beneficial for the simulation of summer rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the CAM4 physics tends to produce less biases over the western equatorial Indian Ocean, whereas the higher resolution tends to generate unrealistically strong meridional winds. The IOD-ENSO relationship was captured reasonably well in coupled experiments, with improvements in CAM5 relative to CAM4. However, the teleconnection of the IOD-Indian summer monsoon and ENSO-Indian summer monsoon was not realistically simulated in all experiments.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Molecular dynamics simulation of Coulomb explosion, melting and shock wave creation in silicon after an ionization pulse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhongyu; Shao, Lin, E-mail: lshao@tamu.edu; Chen, Di

Strong electronic stopping power of swift ions in a semiconducting or insulating substrate can lead to localized electron stripping. The subsequent repulsive interactions among charged target atoms can cause Coulomb explosion. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we simulate Coulomb explosion in silicon by introducing an ionization pulse lasting for different periods, and at different substrate temperatures. We find that the longer the pulse period, the larger the melting radius. The observation can be explained by a critical energy density model assuming that melting required thermal energy density is a constant value and the total thermal energy gained from Coulomb explosion ismore » linearly proportional to the ionization period. Our studies also show that melting radius is larger at higher substrate temperatures. The temperature effect is explained due to a longer structural relaxation above the melting temperature at original ionization boundary due to lower heat dissipation rates. Furthermore, simulations show the formation of shock waves, created due to the compression from the melting core.« less

Simulation of runoff and water quality for 1990 and 2008 land use conditions in the Reedy Creek watershed, East-Central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Schiffer, Donna M.

2002-01-01

Hydrologic and water-quality data have been collected within the 177-square-mile Reedy Creek, Florida, watershed, beginning as early as 1939, but the data have not been used to evaluate relations among land use, hydrology, and water quality. A model of the Reedy Creek watershed was developed and applied to the period January 1990 to December 1995 to provide a computational foundation for evaluating the effects of future land-use changes on hydrology and water quality in the watershed. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality of runoff for pervious land areas, impervious land areas, and stream reaches. Six land-use types were used to characterize the hydrology and water quality of pervious and impervious land areas in the Reedy Creek watershed: agriculture, rangeland, forest, wetlands, rapid infiltration basins, and urban areas. Hydrologic routing and water-quality reactions were simulated to characterize hydrologic and water-quality processes and the movement of runoff and its constituents through the main stream channels and their tributaries. Because of the complexity of the stream system within the Reedy Creek Improvement District (RCID) (hydraulic structures, retention ponds) and the anticipated difficulty of modeling the system, an approach of calibrating the model parameters for a subset of the gaged watersheds and confirming the usefulness of the parameters by simulating the remainder of the gaged sites was selected for this study. Two sub-watersheds (Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek) were selected for calibration because both have similar land use to watersheds within the RCID (with the exception of urban areas). Given the lack of available rainfall data, the hydrologic calibration of the Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek sub-watersheds was considered acceptable (for monthly data, correlation coefficients, 0.86 and 0.88, and coefficients of model-fit efficiency, 0.72 and 0.74, respectively). The hydrologic model was tested by applying the parameter sets developed for Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek to other land areas within the Reedy Creek watershed, and by comparing the simulated results to observed data sets for Reedy Creek near Vineland, Bonnet Creek near Vineland, and Reedy Creek near Loughman. The hydrologic model confirmation for Reedy Creek near Vineland (correlation coefficient, 0.91, and coefficient of model fit efficiency, 0.78, for monthly flows) was acceptable. Flows for Bonnet Creek near Vineland were substantially under simulated. Consideration of the ground-water contribution to Bonnet Creek could improve the water balance simulation for Bonnet Creek near Vineland. On longer time scales (monthly or over the 72-month simulation period), simulated discharges for Reedy Creek near Loughman agreed well with observed data (correlation coefficient, 0.88). For monthly flows the coefficient of model-fit efficiency was 0.77. On a shorter time scale (less than a month), however, storm volumes were greatly over simulated and low flows (less than 8 cubic feet per second) were greatly under simulated. A primary reason for the poor results at low flows is the diversion of an unknown amount of water from the RCID at the Bonnet Creek near Kissimmee site. Selection of water-quality constituents for simulation was based primarily on the availability of water-quality data. Dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus species were simulated. Representation of nutrient cycling in HSPF also required simulation of biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton populations. The correlation coefficient for simulated and observed daily mean dissolved oxygen concentration values at Reedy Creek near Vineland was 0.633. Simulated time series of total phosphorus, phosphate, ammonia nitrogen, and nitrate nitrogen generally agreed well with periodically observed values for the Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek sites. Simulated water-quality c

The isolation of spatial patterning modes in a mathematical model of juxtacrine cell signalling.

PubMed

O'Dea, R D; King, J R

2013-06-01

Juxtacrine signalling mechanisms are known to be crucial in tissue and organ development, leading to spatial patterns in gene expression. We investigate the patterning behaviour of a discrete model of juxtacrine cell signalling due to Owen & Sherratt (1998, Mathematical modelling of juxtacrine cell signalling. Math. Biosci., 153, 125-150) in which ligand molecules, unoccupied receptors and bound ligand-receptor complexes are modelled. Feedback between the ligand and receptor production and the level of bound receptors is incorporated. By isolating two parameters associated with the feedback strength and employing numerical simulation, linear stability and bifurcation analysis, the pattern-forming behaviour of the model is analysed under regimes corresponding to lateral inhibition and induction. Linear analysis of this model fails to capture the patterning behaviour exhibited in numerical simulations. Via bifurcation analysis, we show that since the majority of periodic patterns fold subcritically from the homogeneous steady state, a wide variety of stable patterns exists at a given parameter set, providing an explanation for this failure. The dominant pattern is isolated via numerical simulation. Additionally, by sampling patterns of non-integer wavelength on a discrete mesh, we highlight a disparity between the continuous and discrete representations of signalling mechanisms: in the continuous case, patterns of arbitrary wavelength are possible, while sampling such patterns on a discrete mesh leads to longer wavelength harmonics being selected where the wavelength is rational; in the irrational case, the resulting aperiodic patterns exhibit 'local periodicity', being constructed from distorted stable shorter wavelength patterns. This feature is consistent with experimentally observed patterns, which typically display approximate short-range periodicity with defects.

Wind Wave Climate of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedeva, Alisa

2017-04-01

Storms in the Baltic Sea in autumn and winter are very frequent. In this research the goal is to estimate decadal and interannual changes of the wave fields for the entire Baltic Sea. The wave parameters, such as significant wave heights and periods, were simulated for the period 1979-2015 years based on NCEP/CFSR Reanalysis data fields and for the period 1948-2010 years based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. For accuracy estimation of the model the statistical characteristics, such as correlation coefficient, bias, scatter index and RMSE were calculated. Also two computational meshes were compared: rectangular and triangulated. In this study the third generation spectral wind-wave model SWAN was used for simulations. For wind input data two types of wind reanalysis were chosen: NCEP/CFSR with 1-hour time step and NCEP/NCAR with time step of 6 hours. The final computational grid for rectangular mesh for the Baltic Sea is 0.05×0.05°. The simulated data were compared with instrumental data of the Sweden buoys and of the acoustic wave recorder fixed at the Russian oil platform. The results reveal that for the Baltic Sea it is more efficient to use rectangular mesh for the deep open area and irregular mesh near the coast. Simulations using wind data from NCEP/NCAR significantly decreases the quality of the results compared with NCEP/CFSR wind data: Bias increases in 10 times (-0.730), RMSE - in 2-3 times (0.89). The following results of numerical modeling using NCEP/NCAR the storm situations, when the significant wave height exceeded 2 meters, were identified for the 63-year period. An average of about 50 storms per year happened in the Baltic Sea in this time period. The storminess of the Baltic Sea tends to increase. The twenty-year periodicity with the increase in the 70-s and 90-s years of XX century was revealed. The average yearly significant wave height increases in the second part of the century too and differs from 2.4 to 3.3 m. Storm cyclones are connected with the global atmosphere circulation patterns. According to similar research of the other west seas of Russia by the analogous methods, such kind of twenty-year periodicity was identified for the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, but the storminess there for the period from 1948 to 2010 decreases.

Simulated response to pumping stress in the Sparta aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana, 1998-2027

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Phillip D.; Lovelace, John K.; Reed, Thomas B.

1998-01-01

The Sparta aquifer in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand for water in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta that significantly exceed recharge to the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface, and water users and managers alike have begun to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Large cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. Water levels in the aquifer have declined at rates greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana and are now below the top of the formation in parts of Union and Columbia Counties, Arkansas, and in several areas of Louisiana. Problems related to over draft in the Sparta could result in increased drilling and pumping costs, loss of yield, salt-water intrusion, and decrease in water quality in areas of large drawdown. The effects of current ground-water withdrawals and potential future withdrawals on water availability are major concerns of water managers and users as well as the general public in the two States. The Sparta model-a regional scale, digital ground-water flow model-was first calibrated in the mid-1980's. The model was updated and reverified using 1995-97 data. Visual inspection of the observed (1996-97) and simulated potentiometric surfaces, statistical analysis of the error for the original calibration and current reverification, and comparison of observed versus simulated hydro graphs indicates that the model is simulating conditions in the aquifer within acceptable error, and the quality of current (1998) model results is similar to the original model calibration results. When stressed with current withdrawal volumes and distributions, the model is able to simulate currently observed heads effectively as heads were simulated in the original calibration period. Five pumping scenarios were simulated over a 30-year period based on (1) current pumping rates, (2) current rates of change in pumping, (3) decreased pumping in selected areas, (4) increased pumping in selected areas, and (5) redistribution and increase of pumping in selected areas. Model results show that although continued pumping at current rates will result in relatively minor declines in water levels (scenario 1 above), continued pumping at currently observed rates of change will result in drastic declines across large areas of focused withdrawals (scenario 2). Under the first scenario-in which current pumping rates are input to the model for the 30-year simulation period-water levels in the middle of the cones of depression centered on El Dorado and Monroe decrease less than 10 feet. In the second scenario-in which the current rate of change in pumpage is applied to the model-substantial declines occur in the proximity of most major pumpage centers. During the 1998-2027 model period, predicted water levels decline from 307 feet below sea level to 438 feet below sea level near El Dorado, from 58 feet below sea level to 277 feet below sea level near Pine Bluff, but only by about 25 feet-from 202 feet below sea level to 225 feet below sea level near Monroe. In the third scenario-in which minimum predicted water use figures supplied by selected facilities in Arkansas and decreased pumping estimates for Louisiana are applied to the model-simulated water levels are substantially higher at cones of depression around the major pumping centers of Monroe and El Dorado as compared to initial (1997) values. During the 1998-2027 model period, predicted water levels near Monroe increase from 202 feet below sea level to 133 feet below sea level; water levels near El Dorado increase from 307 feet below sea level to 123 feet below sea level. For the fourth scenario-in which maxi mum pr

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Three-dimensional MHD Simulations of Solar Prominence Oscillations in a Magnetic Flux Rope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yu-Hao; Xia, C.; Keppens, R.; Fang, C.; Chen, P. F.

2018-04-01

Solar prominences are subject to all kinds of perturbations during their lifetime, and frequently demonstrate oscillations. The study of prominence oscillations provides an alternative way to investigate their internal magnetic and thermal structures because the characteristics of the oscillations depend on their interplay with the solar corona. Prominence oscillations can be classified into longitudinal and transverse types. We perform three-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulations of prominence oscillations along a magnetic flux rope, with the aim of comparing the oscillation periods with those predicted by various simplified models and examining the restoring force. We find that the longitudinal oscillation has a period of about 49 minutes, which is in accordance with the pendulum model where the field-aligned component of gravity serves as the restoring force. In contrast, the horizontal transverse oscillation has a period of about 10 minutes and the vertical transverse oscillation has a period of about 14 minutes, and both of them can be nicely fitted with a two-dimensional slab model. We also find that the magnetic tension force dominates most of the time in transverse oscillations, except for the first minute when magnetic pressure overwhelms it.

Design and Development of Basic Physical Layer WiMAX Network Simulation Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Wide Web . The third software version was developed during the period of 22 August to 4 November, 2008. The software version developed during the...researched on the Web . The mathematics of some fundamental concepts such as Fourier transforms, convolutional coding techniques were also reviewed...Mathworks Matlab users’ website. A simulation model was found, entitled Estudio y Simulacion de la capa Jisica de la norma 802.16 ( Sistema WiMAX) developed

A Next-Generation Model of the Corona and Solar Wind

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-31

2007. The Sun was very quiet during this time. An extended coronal hole is visible in the observations and the simulation. (d) July 19, 2008...those synthesized from our model for August 27, 1996, when the “Elephant’s trunk” equatorial coronal hole was visible. To make a quantitative...especially the coronal hole regions, agree reasonably well. Figure 3 shows comparisons of simulated and actual emission for four other time periods. Frame (a

Evaluation of predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation after tests with convection and microphysics schemes in the Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, J. L.; Chou, S. C.; Yaguchi, S. M.

2012-04-01

Physics parameterizations and the model vertical and horizontal resolutions, for example, can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in the numerical weather predictions, especially at regions with complex topography. The objective of this study is to assess the influences of model precipitation production schemes and horizontal resolution on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Eta Model . The model was run in hydrostatic mode at 3- and 5-km grid sizes, the vertical resolution was set to 50 layers, and the time steps to 6 and 10 s, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were taken from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Over the sea the 0.25-deg sea surface temperature from NOAA was used. The model was setup to run for each resolution over Angra dos Reis, located in the Southeast region of Brazil, for the rainy period between 18 December 2009 and 01 de January 2010, the model simulation range was 48 hours. In one set of runs the cumulus parameterization was switched off, in this case the model precipitation was fully simulated by cloud microphysics scheme, and in the other set the model was run with weak cumulus convection. The results show that as the model horizontal resolution increases from 5 to 3 km, the spatial pattern of the precipitation hardly changed, although the maximum precipitation core increased in magnitude. Daily data from automatic station data was used to evaluate the runs and shows that the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation were better simulated for 3 km when compared against observations. The model configuration results without cumulus convection shows a small contraction in the precipitating area and an increase in the simulated maximum values. The diurnal cycle of precipitation was better simulated with some activity of the cumulus convection scheme. The skill scores for the period and for different forecast ranges are higher at weak and moderate precipitation rates.

Mechanical models of sandfish locomotion reveal principles of high performance subsurface sand-swimming

PubMed Central

Maladen, Ryan D.; Ding, Yang; Umbanhowar, Paul B.; Kamor, Adam; Goldman, Daniel I.

2011-01-01

We integrate biological experiment, empirical theory, numerical simulation and a physical model to reveal principles of undulatory locomotion in granular media. High-speed X-ray imaging of the sandfish lizard, Scincus scincus, in 3 mm glass particles shows that it swims within the medium without using its limbs by propagating a single-period travelling sinusoidal wave down its body, resulting in a wave efficiency, η, the ratio of its average forward speed to the wave speed, of approximately 0.5. A resistive force theory (RFT) that balances granular thrust and drag forces along the body predicts η close to the observed value. We test this prediction against two other more detailed modelling approaches: a numerical model of the sandfish coupled to a discrete particle simulation of the granular medium, and an undulatory robot that swims within granular media. Using these models and analytical solutions of the RFT, we vary the ratio of undulation amplitude to wavelength (A/λ) and demonstrate an optimal condition for sand-swimming, which for a given A results from the competition between η and λ. The RFT, in agreement with the simulated and physical models, predicts that for a single-period sinusoidal wave, maximal speed occurs for A/λ ≈ 0.2, the same kinematics used by the sandfish. PMID:21378020

Application of a photochemical grid model to milan metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silibello, C.; Calori, G.; Brusasca, G.; Catenacci, G.; Finzi, G.

High ozone levels are regularly reached during summer period in South-European urban areas, calling for careful design of primary pollutants emission reduction strategies. In this perspective the CALGRID modelling system has been applied to Milan metropolitan area, located in the Po Valley, the most industrialised and populated area in Italy. For the first modelling exercise, a simulation domain of 100×100 km 2 has been considered and a summer period, characterised by high photochemical activity, has been selected. Hourly emissions have been derived by spatially and temporally disaggregating national inventories data, while standard upper-air and ground-based meteorological data have been used as input to the CALMET pre-processor. A careful analysis of simulation results versus local network monitoring data has revealed some critical points, related to both modelling assumptions and practical data availability. A satisfactory reproduction of daytime ozone behaviour has been, in fact, accomplished, both in urban and suburban sites, while nighttime primary pollutants accumulations and consequent ozone consumption simulated by the model have not found correspondence in the measurements. Nitrogen dioxide has been also successfully modelled, mostly in city surroundings, whereas higher discrepancies have been found in some urban stations. Possible explanations of these facts are discussed in the paper, giving an insight for further work.

Population Synthesis of Radio & Gamma-Ray Millisecond Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2014-01-01

In recent years, the number of known gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic disk has risen substantially thanks to confirmed detections by Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). We have developed a new population synthesis of gamma-ray and radio MSPs in the galaxy which uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore the large and small worlds of the model parameter space and allows for comparisons of the simulated and detected MSP distributions. The simulation employs empirical radio and gamma-ray luminosity models that are dependent upon the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. Parameters associated with the birth distributions are also free to vary. The computer code adjusts the magnitudes of the model luminosities to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys, thus normalizing the simulation and predicting the MSP birth rates in the Galaxy. Computing many Markov chains leads to preferred sets of model parameters that are further explored through two statistical methods. Marginalized plots define confidence regions in the model parameter space using maximum likelihood methods. A secondary set of confidence regions is determined in parallel using Kuiper statistics calculated from comparisons of cumulative distributions. These two techniques provide feedback to affirm the results and to check for consistency. Radio flux and dispersion measure constraints have been imposed on the simulated gamma-ray distributions in order to reproduce realistic detection conditions. The simulated and detected distributions agree well for both sets of radio and gamma-ray pulsar characteristics, as evidenced by our various comparisons.

Ground-Motion Variability for a Strike-Slip Earthquake from Broadband Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaki, A.; Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

One of the important issues in seismic hazard analysis is the evaluation of ground-motion variability due to the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in various aspects of ground-motion simulations. This study investigates the within-event ground-motion variability in broadband ground-motion simulations for strike-slip events. We conduct ground-motion simulations for a past event (2000 MW6.6 Tottori earthquake) using a set of characterized source models (e.g. Irikura and Miyake, 2011) considering aleatory variability. Broadband ground motion is computed by a hybrid approach that combines a 3D finite-difference method (> 1 s) and the stochastic Green's function method (< 1 s), using the 3D velocity model J-SHIS v2. We consider various locations of the asperities, which are defined as the regions with large slip and stress drop within the fault, and the rupture nucleation point (hypocenter). Ground motion records at 29 K-NET and KiK-net stations are used to validate our simulations. By comparing the simulated and observed ground motion, we found that the performance of the simulations is acceptable under the condition that the source parameters are poorly constrained. In addition to the observation stations, we set 318 virtual receivers with the spatial intervals of 10 km for statistical analysis of the simulated ground motion. The maximum fault-distance is 160 km. Standard deviation (SD) of the simulated acceleration response spectra (Sa, 5% damped) of RotD50 component (Boore, 2010) is investigated at each receiver. SD from 50 different patterns of asperity locations is generally smaller than 0.15 in terms of log10 (0.34 in natural log). It shows dependence on distance at periods shorter than 1 s; SD increases as the distance decreases. On the other hand, SD from 39 different hypocenter locations is again smaller than 0.15 in log10, and showed azimuthal dependence at long periods; it increases as the rupture directivity parameter Xcosθ(Somerville et al. 1997) increases at periods longer than 1 s. The characteristics of ground-motion variability inferred from simulations can provide information on variability in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment for future earthquakes. We will further investigate the variability in other source parameters; rupture velocity and short-period level.

Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.

2006-09-26

The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period,more » April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.« less

Modeling the electrophoretic separation of short biological molecules in nanofluidic devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fayad, Ghassan; Hadjiconstantinou, Nicolas

2010-11-01

Via comparisons with Brownian Dynamics simulations of the worm-like-chain and rigid-rod models, and the experimental results of Fu et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett., 97, 018103 (2006)], we demonstrate that, for the purposes of low-to-medium field electrophoretic separation in periodic nanofilter arrays, sufficiently short biomolecules can be modeled as point particles, with their orientational degrees of freedom accounted for using partition coefficients. This observation is used in the present work to build a particularly simple and efficient Brownian Dynamics simulation method. Particular attention is paid to the model's ability to quantitatively capture experimental results using realistic values of all physical parameters. A variance-reduction method is developed for efficiently simulating arbitrarily small forcing electric fields.

Distribution and transport of water vapor in the UTLS over the Tibetan Plateau as inferred from the MLS satellite data and WRF model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, S.; Kar, S. C.

2016-12-01

Water vapor is an important minor constituent in the lower stratosphere as it influences the stratospheric chemistry and total radiation budget. The spatial distribution of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite at 100 hPa level shows prominent maxima over the Tibetan Plateau during August 2015. The Asian monsoon upper level anticyclone is also known to occur over this region during this period. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and National Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) observed daily gridded rainfall data shows moderate to heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting active convection from 26 July to 10 August 2015. The atmospheric conditions are simulated over the Asian region for the 15-day period using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations are carried out using two nested domains with resolution of 12 km and 4 km. The initial and boundary conditions are taken from the NGFS (up-graded version of the NCEP GFS) data. The WRF WVMR profiles are observed to be comparatively moist than the MLS profiles in the UTLS region over the Tibetan Plateau. This may be due to the relatively higher temperatures (1-2 K) simulated in the WRF model near 100 hPa level. It is noted that the WRF model has a drying tendency at all the levels. The UTLS WVMR and temperatures show poor sensitivity to the convective schemes. The parent domain and the explicit convective scheme simulate almost same moisture over time in the inner domain. The cloud micro-physics is observed to play a rather important role in controlling the UTLS water vapor content. The WSM-6 convective scheme is observed to simulate the UTLS moisture comparatively well and therefore the processes associated with the formation of ice, snow and graupel formation may be of much more importance in controlling the UTLS WVMR in the WRF model. The 24 hr, 48 hr and 72 hr forecast averaged for the 15-day period shows that over the Tibetan Plateau, high WVMR in the UTLS is not centered within the anticyclone, contrary to what has been shown by earlier studies. Similar simulations are also being carried out using the Era-interim initial and boundary conditions to confirm the above findings.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Role of meteorology in simulating methane seasonal cycle and growth rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, A.; Patra, P. K.; Ishijima, K.; Morimoto, S.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.

2012-12-01

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenically produced greenhouse gas whose radiative effect is comparable to that of carbon dioxide since the preindustrial time. Methane also contributes to formation of tropospheric ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere, further increasing its importance to the Earth's radiative balance. In the present study, model simulation of CH4 for three different emission scenarios has been conducted using the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) based Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) with and without nudging of meteorological parameters for the period of 1981-2011. The model simulations are compared with measurements at monthly timescale at surface monitoring stations. We show the overall trends in CH4 growth rate and seasonal cycle at most measurement sites can be fairly successfully modeled by using existing knowledge of CH4 flux trends and seasonality. Detailed analysis reveals the model simulation without nudging has greater seasonal cycle amplitude compared to observation as well as the model simulation with nudging. The growth rate is slightly overestimated for the model simulation without nudging. For better representation of regional/global flux distribution pattern and strength in the future, we are exploring various dynamical and chemical aspects in the forward model with and without nudging.

Dust aerosol and optical properties over North Africa simulated with the ALADIN numerical prediction model from 2006 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokhtari, M.; Tulet, P.; Fischer, C.; Bouteloup, Y.; Bouyssel, F.; Brachemi, O.

2015-02-01

The seasonal cycle and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols in North Africa were simulated for the period from 2006 to 2010 using the numerical atmospheric model ALADIN coupled to the surface scheme SURFEX. The particularity of the simulations is that the major physical processes responsible for dust emission and transport, as well as radiative effects, are taken into account at short timescales and mesoscale resolution. The aim of these simulations is to quantify the dust emission and deposition, locate the major areas of dust emission and establish a climatology of aerosol optical properties in North Africa. The mean monthly Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) simulated by ALADIN is compared with the AOTs derived from the standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms of the Aqua-MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over North Africa, and with a set of sun photometer measurements located at Banizoumbou, Cinzana, Soroa, Mbour and Capo Verde. The vertical distribution of dust aerosol represented by extinction profiles is also analysed using CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations. The annual dust emission simulated by ALADIN over North Africa is 878 Tg year-1. The Bodélé depression appears to be the main area of dust emission in North Africa, with an average estimate of about 21.6 Tg year-1. The simulated AOTs are in good agreement with satellite and sun photometer observations. The positions of the maxima of the modelled AOTs over North Africa match the observed positions, and the ALADIN simulations satisfactorily reproduce the various dust events over the 2006-2010 period. The AOT climatology proposed in this paper provides a solid database of optical properties and consolidates the existing climatology over this region derived from satellites, the AERONET network and Regional Climate Models. Moreover, the three-dimensional distribution of the simulated AOTs also provides information about the vertical structure of the dust aerosol extinction.

Climate change projections for winter precipitation over Tropical America using statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In this study the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method has been used as statistical downscaling technique for simulating boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America during the period 1950-2010, and then for generating climate change projections for 2071-2100 period. The study uses the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, version 6) data set over the Tropical America region [30°N-30°S, 120°W-30°W] as predictand variable in the downscaling model. The mean monthly sea level pressure (SLP) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis project), has been used as predictor variable, covering a more extended area [30°N-30°S, 180°W-30°W]. Also, the SLP outputs from 20 GCMs, taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been used. The model data include simulations with historical atmospheric concentrations and future projections for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The ability of the different GCMs to simulate the winter precipitation in the study area for present climate (1971-2000) was analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. Additionally, the statistical significance at 95% confidence level of these differences has been estimated by means of the bilateral rank sum test of Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney. Finally, to project winter precipitation in the area for the period 2071-2100, the downscaling model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, was applied to the SLP outputs of the GCMs under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that, generally, for present climate the statistical downscaling shows a high ability to faithfully reproduce the precipitation field, while the simulations performed directly by using not downscaled outputs of GCMs strongly distort the precipitation field. For future climate, the projected predictions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show large areas with significant changes. For the RCP2.6 scenario, projected results present a predominance of very moderate decreases in rainfall, although significant in some models. Keywords: climate change projections, precipitation, Tropical America, statistical downscaling. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Pyrite: A blender plugin for visualizing molecular dynamics simulations using industry-standard rendering techniques.

PubMed

Rajendiran, Nivedita; Durrant, Jacob D

2018-05-05

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide critical insights into many biological mechanisms. Programs such as VMD, Chimera, and PyMOL can produce impressive simulation visualizations, but they lack many advanced rendering algorithms common in the film and video-game industries. In contrast, the modeling program Blender includes such algorithms but cannot import MD-simulation data. MD trajectories often require many gigabytes of memory/disk space, complicating Blender import. We present Pyrite, a Blender plugin that overcomes these limitations. Pyrite allows researchers to visualize MD simulations within Blender, with full access to Blender's cutting-edge rendering techniques. We expect Pyrite-generated images to appeal to students and non-specialists alike. A copy of the plugin is available at http://durrantlab.com/pyrite/, released under the terms of the GNU General Public License Version 3. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

2016-12-01

The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

River flow simulation using a multilayer perceptron-firefly algorithm model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darbandi, Sabereh; Pourhosseini, Fatemeh Akhoni

2018-06-01

River flow estimation using records of past time series is importance in water resources engineering and management and is required in hydrologic studies. In the past two decades, the approaches based on the artificial neural networks (ANN) were developed. River flow modeling is a non-linear process and highly affected by the inputs to the modeling. In this study, the best input combination of the models was identified using the Gamma test then MLP-ANN and hybrid multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA) is used to forecast monthly river flow for a set of time intervals using observed data. The measurements from three gauge at Ajichay watershed, East Azerbaijani, were used to train and test the models approach for the period from January 2004 to July 2016. Calibration and validation were performed within the same period for MLP-ANN and MLP-FFA models after the preparation of the required data. Statistics, the root mean square error and determination coefficient, are used to verify outputs from MLP-ANN to MLP-FFA models. The results show that MLP-FFA model is satisfactory for monthly river flow simulation in study area.

Delay induced stability switch, multitype bistability and chaos in an intraguild predation model.

PubMed

Shu, Hongying; Hu, Xi; Wang, Lin; Watmough, James

2015-12-01

In many predator-prey models, delay has a destabilizing effect and induces oscillations; while in many competition models, delay does not induce oscillations. By analyzing a rather simple delayed intraguild predation model, which combines both the predator-prey relation and competition, we show that delay in intraguild predation models promotes very complex dynamics. The delay can induce stability switches exhibiting a destabilizing role as well as a stabilizing role. It is shown that three types of bistability are possible: one stable equilibrium coexists with another stable equilibrium (node-node bistability); one stable equilibrium coexists with a stable periodic solution (node-cycle bistability); one stable periodic solution coexists with another stable periodic solution (cycle-cycle bistability). Numerical simulations suggest that delay can also induce chaos in intraguild predation models.

A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, E. F.; Sivapalan, M.; Thongs, D. J.

1992-01-01

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on variable infiltration capacity model performance and simulation of streamflow during drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2014-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrologic model performance and the simulation of streamflow during drought using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) observed monthly LAI dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the percentage deviation of the simulated monthly streamflow using the observed monthly LAI from simulated streamflow using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly streamflow in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5 to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59 to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements from 4 to 25% in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in pasture dominated catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with the observed monthly LAI instead of the long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of streamflow during wet and dry periods can be reduced to some extent by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

The effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on Variable Infiltration Capacity model performance and simulation of runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrological model performance and the simulation of runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the deviation of the simulated monthly runoff using the observed monthly LAI from simulated runoff using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly runoff in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5% to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59% to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements, from 4% to 25% in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, in sparsely forested sub-catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with observed monthly LAI instead of long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated sub-catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of runoff during wet and dry periods can be reduced to 25 mm and 35 mm respectively by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Octree-based, GPU implementation of a continuous cellular automaton for the simulation of complex, evolving surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrando, N.; Gosálvez, M. A.; Cerdá, J.; Gadea, R.; Sato, K.

2011-03-01

Presently, dynamic surface-based models are required to contain increasingly larger numbers of points and to propagate them over longer time periods. For large numbers of surface points, the octree data structure can be used as a balance between low memory occupation and relatively rapid access to the stored data. For evolution rules that depend on neighborhood states, extended simulation periods can be obtained by using simplified atomistic propagation models, such as the Cellular Automata (CA). This method, however, has an intrinsic parallel updating nature and the corresponding simulations are highly inefficient when performed on classical Central Processing Units (CPUs), which are designed for the sequential execution of tasks. In this paper, a series of guidelines is presented for the efficient adaptation of octree-based, CA simulations of complex, evolving surfaces into massively parallel computing hardware. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used as a cost-efficient example of the parallel architectures. For the actual simulations, we consider the surface propagation during anisotropic wet chemical etching of silicon as a computationally challenging process with a wide-spread use in microengineering applications. A continuous CA model that is intrinsically parallel in nature is used for the time evolution. Our study strongly indicates that parallel computations of dynamically evolving surfaces simulated using CA methods are significantly benefited by the incorporation of octrees as support data structures, substantially decreasing the overall computational time and memory usage.

Assessment of nitrate pollution in the Grand Morin aquifers (France): combined use of geostatistics and physically based modeling.

PubMed

Flipo, Nicolas; Jeannée, Nicolas; Poulin, Michel; Even, Stéphanie; Ledoux, Emmanuel

2007-03-01

The objective of this work is to combine several approaches to better understand nitrate fate in the Grand Morin aquifers (2700 km(2)), part of the Seine basin. cawaqs results from the coupling of the hydrogeological model newsam with the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of river ProSe. cawaqs is coupled with the agronomic model Stics in order to simulate nitrate migration in basins. First, kriging provides a satisfactory representation of aquifer nitrate contamination from local observations, to set initial conditions for the physically based model. Then associated confidence intervals, derived from data using geostatistics, are used to validate cawaqs results. Results and evaluation obtained from the combination of these approaches are given (period 1977-1988). Then cawaqs is used to simulate nitrate fate for a 20-year period (1977-1996). The mean nitrate concentrations increase in aquifers is 0.09 mgN L(-1)yr(-1), resulting from an average infiltration flux of 3500 kgN.km(-2)yr(-1).

Homogenization of a Directed Dispersal Model for Animal Movement in a Heterogeneous Environment.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P

2016-10-01

The dispersal patterns of animals moving through heterogeneous environments have important ecological and epidemiological consequences. In this work, we apply the method of homogenization to analyze an advection-diffusion (AD) model of directed movement in a one-dimensional environment in which the scale of the heterogeneity is small relative to the spatial scale of interest. We show that the large (slow) scale behavior is described by a constant-coefficient diffusion equation under certain assumptions about the fast-scale advection velocity, and we determine a formula for the slow-scale diffusion coefficient in terms of the fast-scale parameters. We extend the homogenization result to predict invasion speeds for an advection-diffusion-reaction (ADR) model with directed dispersal. For periodic environments, the homogenization approximation of the solution of the AD model compares favorably with numerical simulations. Invasion speed approximations for the ADR model also compare favorably with numerical simulations when the spatial period is sufficiently small.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

Evaluation of mean climate in a chemistry-climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Park, H.; Wie, J.; Park, R.; Lee, S.; Moon, B. K.

2017-12-01

Incorporation of the interactive chemistry is essential for understanding chemistry-climate interactions and feedback processes in climate models. Here we assess a newly developed chemistry-climate model (GRIMs-Chem), which is based on the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) including the aerosol direct effect as well as stratospheric linearized ozone chemistry (LINOZ). We conducted GRIMs-Chem with observed sea surface temperature during the period of 1979-2010, and compared the simulation results with observations and also with CMIP models. To measure the relative performance of our model, we define the quantitative performance metric using the Taylor diagram. This metric allow us to assess overall features in simulating multiple variables. Overall, our model better reproduce the zonal mean spatial pattern of temperature, horizontal wind, vertical motion, and relative humidity relative to other models. However, the model did not produce good simulations at upper troposphere (200 hPa). It is currently unclear which model processes are responsible for this. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program."

Cyclic injection, storage, and withdrawal of heated water in a sandstone aquifer at St. Paul, Minnesota: Analysis of thermal data and nonisothermal modeling of short-term test cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Robert T.; Delin, G.N.

1994-01-01

A three-dimensional, anisotropic, nonisothermal, ground-water-flow, and thermal-energy-transport model was constructed to simulate the four short-term test cycles. The model was used to simulate the entire short-term testing period of approximately 400 days. The only model properties varied during model calibration were longitudinal and transverse thermal dispersivities, which, for final calibration, were simulated as 3.3 and 0.33 meters, respectively. The model was calibrated by comparing model-computed results to (1) measured temperatures at selected altitudes in four observation wells, (2) measured temperatures at the production well, and (3) calculated thermal efficiencies of the aquifer. Model-computed withdrawal-water temperatures were within an average of about 3 percent of measured values and model-computed aquifer-thermal efficiencies were within an average of about 5 percent of calculated values for the short-term test cycles. These data indicate that the model accurately simulated thermal-energy storage within the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville aquifer.

The importance of accurate glacier albedo for estimates of surface mass balance on Vatnajökull: evaluating the surface energy budget in a regional climate model with automatic weather station observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffensen Schmidt, Louise; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Guðmundsson, Sverrir; Langen, Peter L.; Pálsson, Finnur; Mottram, Ruth; Gascoin, Simon; Björnsson, Helgi

2017-07-01

A simulation of the surface climate of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, carried out with the regional climate model HIRHAM5 for the period 1980-2014, is used to estimate the evolution of the glacier surface mass balance (SMB). This simulation uses a new snow albedo parameterization that allows albedo to exponentially decay with time and is surface temperature dependent. The albedo scheme utilizes a new background map of the ice albedo created from observed MODIS data. The simulation is evaluated against observed daily values of weather parameters from five automatic weather stations (AWSs) from the period 2001-2014, as well as in situ SMB measurements from the period 1995-2014. The model agrees well with observations at the AWS sites, albeit with a general underestimation of the net radiation. This is due to an underestimation of the incoming radiation and a general overestimation of the albedo. The average modelled albedo is overestimated in the ablation zone, which we attribute to an overestimation of the thickness of the snow layer and not taking the surface darkening from dirt and volcanic ash deposition during dust storms and volcanic eruptions into account. A comparison with the specific summer, winter, and net mass balance for the whole of Vatnajökull (1995-2014) shows a good overall fit during the summer, with a small mass balance underestimation of 0.04 m w.e. on average, whereas the winter mass balance is overestimated by on average 0.5 m w.e. due to too large precipitation at the highest areas of the ice cap. A simple correction of the accumulation at the highest points of the glacier reduces this to 0.15 m w.e. Here, we use HIRHAM5 to simulate the evolution of the SMB of Vatnajökull for the period 1981-2014 and show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the SMB for this period. However, a major source of uncertainty in the representation of the SMB is the representation of the albedo, and processes currently not accounted for in RCMs, such as dust storms, are an important source of uncertainty in estimates of snow melt rate.

Modeled Variations of Precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromwich, David H.; Robasky, Frank M.; Keen, Richard A.; Bolzan, John F.

1993-07-01

A parameterization of the synoptic activity at 500 hPa and a simple orographic scheme are used to model the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1963-88 from analyzed geopotential height fields produced by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Model coefficients are fitted to observed accumulation data, primarily from the summit area of the ice sheet. All major spatial characteristics of the observed accumulation distribution are reproduced apart from the orographic accumulation maximum over the northwestern coastal slopes. The modeled time-averaged total precipitation amount over Greenland is within the range of values determined by other investigators from surface-based observations. A realistic degree of interannual variability in precipitation is also simulated.A downward trend in simulated ice sheet precipitation over the 26 years is found. This is supported by a number of lines of evidence. It matches the accumulation trends during this period from ice cores drilled in south-central Greenland. The lower tropospheric specific humidifies at two south coastal radiosonde stations also decrease over this interval. A systematic shift away from Greenland and a decrease in activity of the dominant storm track are found for relatively low precipitation periods as compared to relatively high precipitation periods. This negative precipitation trend would mean that the Greenland Ice Sheet, depending on its 1963 mass balance state, has over the 1963-88 period either decreased its negative, or increased its positive, contribution to recently observed global sea level rise.Superimposed on the declining simulated precipitation rate for the entire ice sheet is a pronounced 3-5-yr periodicity. This is prominent in the observed and modeled precipitation time series from Summit, Greenland. This cycle shows some aspects in common with the Southern Oscillation.Some deficiencies in the NMC analysts were highlighted by this work. A large jump in simulated precipitation amounts at Summit around 1962, which is not verified by accumulation data, is inferred to be due to an artificial increase in cyclonic activity at 500 hPa associated with the NMC change from manual to numerical analyses. The activity of the storm track along the west coast of Greenland appears to be anomalously low in the NMC analyses, perhaps due to mesoscale cyclogenesis that is not resolved by the NMC analysis scheme.

Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

PubMed Central

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands - Validation of the historical run from 2003 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Newman, A. J.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Monaghan, A. J.

2016-12-01

A high-resolution (a 1.5 km grid spacing domain nested within a 4.5 km grid spacing domain) 10-year regional climate simulation over the entire Hawaiian archipelago is being conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1. Numerical sensitivity simulations of the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, a filed experiment from July to August in 1990) showed that the simulated precipitation properties are sensitive to initial and lateral boundary conditions, sea surface temperature (SST), land surface models, vertical resolution and cloud droplet concentration. The validations of model simulated statistics of the trade wind inversion, temperature, wind field, cloud cover, and precipitation over the islands against various observations from soundings, satellites, weather stations and rain gauges during the period from 2003 to 2012 will be presented at the meeting.

Influence of Boundary Conditions on Regional Air Quality Simulations-Analysis of AQMEII Phase 3 Results

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States (book chapter)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper focuses on dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are s...

Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

2018-06-01

West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

New NASA 3D Animation Shows Seven Days of Simulated Earth Weather

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-08-11

This visualization shows early test renderings of a global computational model of Earth's atmosphere based on data from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). This particular run, called Nature Run 2, was run on a supercomputer, spanned 2 years of simulation time at 30 minute intervals, and produced Petabytes of output. The visualization spans a little more than 7 days of simulation time which is 354 time steps. The time period was chosen because a simulated category-4 typhoon developed off the coast of China. The 7 day period is repeated several times during the course of the visualization. Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio Read more or download here: svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?4180 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Princi...

Chemistry-Climate Models of the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, J.; Shindell, D.; Bruehl, C.; Dameris, M.; Manzini, E.; Nagashima, T.; Newman, P.; Pawson, S.; Pitari, G.; Rozanov, E.;

Simulated and experimental evaluation of factors affecting the rate and extent of reductive dehalogenation of chloroethenes with glucose.

PubMed

Lee, Il-Su; Bae, Jae-Ho; Yang, Yanru; McCarty, Perry L

2004-10-01

Carbohydrates such as molasses are being added to aquifers to serve as electron donors for reductive dehalogenation of chloroethenes. Glucose, as a model carbohydrate, was studied to better understand the processes involved and to evaluate the effectiveness for dehalogenation of different approaches for carbohydrate addition. A simulation model was developed and calibrated with experimental data for the reductive dehalogenation of tetrachloroethene to ethene via cis-1,2-dichloroethene. The model included fermentors that convert the primary donor (glucose) into butyrate, acetate and hydrogen, methanogens, and two separate dehalogenator groups. The dehalogenation groups use the hydrogen intermediate as an electron donor and the different haloethenes as electron acceptors through competitive inhibition. Model simulations suggest first that the initial relative population size of dehalogenators and H(2)-utilizing methanogens greatly affects the degree of dehalogenation achieved. Second, the growth and decay of biomass from soluble carbohydrate plays a significant role in reductive dehalogenation. Finally, the carbohydrate delivery strategies used (periodic versus batch addition and the time interval between periodic addition) greatly affect the degree of dehalogenation that can be obtained with a given amount of added carbohydrate.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Viger, Roland

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using climatological records, regional weather patterns, and geographical/topographical features. We compared simulated extremes with those occurring at corresponding observing stations in the U.S. National Climate Data Center's (NCDC's) Global Summary of the Day. Our analysis focused on variations in features of the extremes such as magnitudes, spatial scales, and temporal regimes. Using composites of extreme events, we also analyzed the processes producing these extremes, comparing circulation, pressure, temperature and humidity fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model output. The analysis revealed the importance of atmospheric convection in the Arctic for some extreme precipitation events and the overall importance of topographic precipitation. The analysis established the physical credibility of the simulations for extreme behavior, laying a foundation for examining projected changes in extreme precipitation. It also highlighted the utility of the model for extracting behavior that one cannot discern directly from the observations, such as summer convective precipitation.

Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris) during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountoukis, Christos; Megaritis, Athanasios G.; Skyllakou, Ksakousti; Charalampidis, Panagiotis E.; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Crippa, Monica; Prévôt, André S. H.; Fachinger, Friederike; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Pilinis, Christodoulos; Pandis, Spyros N.

2016-03-01

We use a three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) with high grid resolution and high-resolution emissions (4 × 4 km2) over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009) and a winter (January/February 2010) period as part of the MEGAPOLI (megacities: emissions, urban, regional, and global atmospheric pollution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC) high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 %) of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA) concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 µg m-3) during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 µg m-3) mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d-1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00-14:00 LT) and 20 % during dinner time (20:00-22:00 LT). Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias = -2.3 µg m-3) pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

Simulating the formation of carbonaceous aerosol in a European Megacity (Paris) during the MEGAPOLI summer and winter campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountoukis, C.; Megaritis, A. G.; Skyllakou, K.; Charalampidis, P. E.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Crippa, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Freutel, F.; Wiedensohler, A.; Pilinis, C.; Pandis, S. N.

2015-09-01

We use a three dimensional regional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) with high grid resolution and high resolution emissions (4 km × 4 km) over the Paris greater area to simulate the formation of carbonaceous aerosol during a summer (July 2009) and a winter (January/February 2010) period as part of the MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional, and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation) campaigns. Model predictions of carbonaceous aerosol are compared against Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer and black carbon (BC) high time resolution measurements from three ground sites. PMCAMx predicts BC concentrations reasonably well reproducing the majority (70 %) of the hourly data within a factor of two during both periods. The agreement for the summertime secondary organic aerosol (OA) concentrations is also encouraging (mean bias = 0.1 μg m-3) during a photochemically intense period. The model tends to underpredict the summertime primary OA concentrations in the Paris greater area (by approximately 0.8 μg m-3) mainly due to missing primary OA emissions from cooking activities. The total cooking emissions are estimated to be approximately 80 mg d-1 per capita and have a distinct diurnal profile in which 50 % of the daily cooking OA is emitted during lunch time (12:00-14:00 LT) and 20 % during dinner time (20:00-22:00 LT). Results also show a large underestimation of secondary OA in the Paris greater area during wintertime (mean bias = -2.3 μg m-3) pointing towards a secondary OA formation process during low photochemical activity periods that is not simulated in the model.

Climatology of convective showers dynamics in a convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisson, Erwan; Brendel, Christoph; Ahrens, Bodo

2017-04-01

Convection-permitting simulations have proven their usefulness in improving both the representation of convective rain and the uncertainty range of climate projections. However, most studies have focused on temporal scales greater or equal to convection cell lifetime. A large knowledge gap remains on the model's performance in representing the temporal dynamic of convective showers and how could this temporal dynamic be altered in a warmer climate. In this study, we proposed to fill this gap by analyzing 5-minute convection-permitting model (CPM) outputs. In total, more than 1200 one-day cases are simulated at the resolution of 0.01° using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe. The analysis follows a Lagrangian approach and consists of tracking showers characterized by five-minute intensities greater than 20 mm/hour. The different features of these showers (e.g., temporal evolution, horizontal speed, lifetime) are investigated. These features as modeled by an ERA-Interim forced simulation are evaluated using a radar dataset for the period 2004-2010. The model shows good performance in representing most features observed in the radar dataset. Besides, the observed relation between the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature are well reproduced by the CPM. In a second modeling experiment, the impact of climate change on convective cell features are analyzed based on an EC-Earth RCP8.5 forced simulation for the period 2071-2100. First results show only minor changes in the temporal structure and size of showers. The increase in convective precipitation found in previous studies seems to be mainly due to an increase in the number of convective cells.

Applying the recurrence quantification analysis method for analyzing the recurrence of simulated multiple African easterly waves in 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, T.; Shen, B. W.; Wu, Y.; Faghih-Naini, S.; Li, J.

2017-12-01

In late August, 2006, six African easterly waves (AEWs) appeared sequentially over the African continent during a 30-day period. With a global model of 1/4 degree resolution, statistics of these AEWs were realistically captured. More interestingly, the formation, subsequent intensification, and movement of Hurricane Helene (2006) were simulated to a degree of satisfaction during the model integration from Day 22 to 30 (Shen et al., 2010). We then developed a parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (PEEMD; Shen et al. 2012; 2017; Cheung et al. 2013) to reveal the role of downscaling processes associated with the environmental flows in determining the timing and location of Helene's formation (Wu and Shen, 2016), supporting its practical predictability at extended-range time scales. Recently, further analysis of the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the simulated temperature and reanalysis data showed that CCs are above 0.65 during the 30 day simulations but display oscillations. While high CCs are consistent with the accurate simulations of the AEWs and Hurricane Helene, oscillations may indicate the inaccurate simulations of moving speeds (i.e., an inaccurate phase) as compared to observations. The observed AEWs have comparable but slightly different periods. To quantitatively examine this space-varying feature in observations and the temporal oscillations in the CCs of the simulations, we select recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) methods and the recurrence plot (RP) in order to account for the local nature of these features. A recurrence is defined when the trajectory returns back to the neighborhood of a previously visited state. With the RQA methods, we can compute the "recurrence rate" and "determinism" present in the RP in order to reveal the degree of recurrence and determinism (or "predictability") of the recurrent solutions. To verify of our implementations in Python, we applied our methods to analyze idealized solutions (e.g., quasi-periodic solutions and limit torus) from the three-dimensional and five-dimensional dissipative or non-dissipative Lorenz Models (Shen and Faghih-Naini, 2017). Post verification, we apply the RQA methods to analyze the 30-days reanalysis and simulation data. In this talk, we will present preliminary but promising results.

Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbinemore » response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.« less

MOAB: a spatially explicit, individual-based expert system for creating animal foraging models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Finn, John T.

1999-01-01

We describe the development, structure, and corroboration process of a simulation model of animal behavior (MOAB). MOAB can create spatially explicit, individual-based animal foraging models. Users can create or replicate heterogeneous landscape patterns, and place resources and individual animals of a goven species on that landscape to simultaneously simulate the foraging behavior of multiple species. The heuristic rules for animal behavior are maintained in a user-modifiable expert system. MOAB can be used to explore hypotheses concerning the influence of landscape patttern on animal movement and foraging behavior. A red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) foraging and nest predation model was created to test MOAB's capabilities. Foxes were simulated for 30-day periods using both expert system and random movement rules. Home range size, territory formation and other available simulation studies. A striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis L.) model also was developed. The expert system model proved superior to stochastic in respect to territory formation, general movement patterns and home range size.

Effects of ramp reset pulses on the address discharge in a shadow mask plasma display panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lanlan; Tu, Yan; Zhang, Xiong; Jiang, Youyan; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Baoping

2007-05-01

A two-dimensional self-consistent numerical simulation model is used to analyse the effects of the ramp reset pulses on the address discharge in a shadow mask plasma display panel (SM-PDP). Some basic parameters such as the slope of the ramp pulse and the terminal voltage of the ramp reset period are varied to investigate their effects. The simulation results illustrate that the wall voltage is mainly decided by the terminal voltage and the firing voltage at the end of the ramp reset period. Moreover, the variation of the ramp slope will also bring a few modifications to the wall voltage. The priming particles in the beginning of the addressing period are related to the slope of the ramping down voltage pulse. The simulation results can help us optimize the driving scheme of the SM-PDP.

Modelling and simulation of thermal behaviour of vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yitao; Li, Yifeng; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria; Bao, Jie

2016-08-01

This paper extends previous thermal models of the vanadium redox flow battery to predict temperature profiles within multi-cell stacks. This involves modelling the thermal characteristics of the stack as a whole to modelling each individual cell. The study investigates the thermal behaviour for two different scenarios: during standby periods when the pumps are turned off, and in a residential power arbitrage scenario for two types of membranes. It was found that the temperature gradient across the cells is most significant during the standby case, with the simulation results showing completely different thermal behaviours between the two systems.

Simulating pedestrian flow by an improved two-process cellular automaton model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Cheng-Jie; Wang, Wei; Jiang, Rui; Dong, Li-Yun

In this paper, we study the pedestrian flow with an Improved Two-Process (ITP) cellular automaton model, which is originally proposed by Blue and Adler. Simulations of pedestrian counterflow have been conducted, under both periodic and open boundary conditions. The lane formation phenomenon has been reproduced without using the place exchange rule. We also present and discuss the flow-density and velocity-density relationships of both uni-directional flow and counterflow. By the comparison with the Blue-Adler model, we find the ITP model has higher values of maximum flow, critical density and completely jammed density under different conditions.

Simulation of groundwater flow and saltwater movement in the Onslow County area, North Carolina: predevelopment-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fine, Jason M.; Kuniansky, Eve L.

2014-01-01

Onslow County, North Carolina, is located within the designated Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area (CCPCUA). The CCPCUA was designated by law as a result of groundwater level declines of as much as 200 feet during the past four decades within aquifers in rocks of Cretaceous age in the central Coastal Plain of North Carolina and a depletion of water in storage from increased groundwater withdrawals in the area. The declines and depletion of water in storage within the Cretaceous aquifers increase the potential for saltwater migration—both lateral encroachment and upward leakage of brackish water. Within the CCPCUA, a reduction in groundwater withdrawals over a period of 16 years from 2003 to 2018 is mandated. Under the CCPCUA rules, withdrawals in excess of 100,000 gallons per day from any of the Cretaceous aquifer well systems are subject to water-use reductions of as much as 75 percent. To assess the effects of the CCPCUA rules and to assist with groundwater-management decisions, a numerical model was developed to simulate the groundwater flow and chloride concentrations in the surficial Castle Hayne, Beaufort, Peedee, and Black Creek aquifers in the Onslow County area. The model was used to (1) simulate groundwater flow from 1900 to 2010; (2) assess chloride movement throughout the aquifer system; and (3) create hypothetical scenarios of future groundwater development. After calibration of a groundwater flow model and conversion to a variable-density model, five scenarios were created to simulate future groundwater conditions in the Onslow County area: (1) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with three phases of withdrawal reductions simulated through 2028; (2) implementation of only phase 1 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (3) implementation of only phases 1 and 2 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (4) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with the addition of withdrawals from the Castle Hayne aquifer in Onslow County at the fully permitted amount in the final stress period and simulated through 2028; and (5) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules as in scenario 1 except simulated through 2100. Results from the scenarios give an indication of the water-level recovery in the Black Creek aquifer throughout each phase of the CCPCUA rules in Onslow County. Furthermore, as development of the Castle Hayne aquifers was increased in the scenarios, cones of depression were created around pumping centers. Additionally, the scenarios indicated little to no change in chloride concentrations for the time periods simulated.

Pilot-model analysis and simulation study of effect of control task desired control response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, J. J.; Gera, J.; Jaudon, J. B.

1978-01-01

A pilot model analysis was performed that relates pilot control compensation, pilot aircraft system response, and aircraft response characteristics for longitudinal control. The results show that a higher aircraft short period frequency is required to achieve superior pilot aircraft system response in an altitude control task than is required in an attitude control task. These results were confirmed by a simulation study of target tracking. It was concluded that the pilot model analysis provides a theoretical basis for determining the effect of control task on pilot opinions.

Experimental Investigation of Nozzle/Plume Aerodynamics at Hypersonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinemann, K.; Bogdanoff, David W.; Cambier, Jean-Luc

1992-01-01

The work performed by D. W. Bogdanoff and J.-L. Cambier during the period of 1 Feb. - 31 Oct. 1992 is presented. The following topics are discussed: (1) improvement in the operation of the facility; (2) the wedge model; (3) calibration of the new test section; (4) combustor model; (5) hydrogen fuel system for combustor model; (6) three inch calibration/development tunnel; (7) shock tunnel unsteady flow; (8) pulse detonation wave engine; (9) DCAF flow simulation; (10) high temperature shock layer simulation; and (11) the one dimensional Godunov CFD code.

Modelling the transient behaviour of pulsed current tungsten-inert-gas weldpools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. S.; Zheng, W.; Wu, L.

1999-01-01

A three-dimensional model is established to simulate the pulsed current tungsten-inert-gas (TIG) welding process. The goal is to analyse the cyclic variation of fluid flow and heat transfer in weldpools under periodic arc heat input. To this end, an algorithm, which is capable of handling the transience, nonlinearity, multiphase and strong coupling encountered in this work, is developed. The numerical simulations demonstrate the transient behaviour of weldpools under pulsed current. Experimental data are compared with numerical results to show the effectiveness of the developed model.

[Adaptability of APSIM model in Southwestern China: A case study of winter wheat in Chongqing City].

PubMed

Dai, Tong; Wang, Jing; He, Di; Zhang, Jian-ping; Wang, Na

2015-04-01

Field experimental data of winter wheat and parallel daily meteorological data at four typical stations in Chongqing City were used to calibrate and validate APSIM-wheat model and determine the genetic parameters for 12 varieties of winter wheat. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the simulated and observed growth periods from sowing to emergence, flowering and maturity of wheat. Root mean squared errors (RMSEs) between simulated and observed emergence, flowering and maturity were 0-3, 1-8, and 0-8 d, respectively. Normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSEs) between simulated and observed above-ground biomass for 12 study varieties were less than 30%. NRMSE between simulated and observed yields for 10 varieties out of 12 study varieties were less than 30%. APSIM-wheat model performed well in simulating phenology, aboveground biomass and yield of winter wheat in Chongqing City, which could provide a foundational support for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat production in the study area based on the model.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffery B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Koppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Bonfils, Celine J. W.

2015-06-05

Köppen bioclimatic classification relates generic vegetation types to characteristics of the interactive annual-cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). In addition to predicting possible bioclimatic consequences of past or prospective climate change, a Köppen scheme can be used to pinpoint biases in model simulations of historical T and P. In this study a Köppen evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations of historical climate is conducted for the period 1980–1999. Evaluation of an example CMIP5 model illustrates how errors in simulating Köppen vegetation types (relative to those derived from observational reference data) can be deconstructed and related tomore » model-specific temperature and precipitation biases. Measures of CMIP model skill in simulating the reference Köppen vegetation types are also developed, allowing the bioclimatic performance of a CMIP5 simulation of T and P to be compared quantitatively with its CMIP3 antecedent. Although certain bioclimatic discrepancies persist across model generations, the CMIP5 models collectively display an improved rendering of historical T and P relative to their CMIP3 counterparts. Additionally, the Köppen-based performance metrics are found to be quite insensitive to alternative choices of observational reference data or to differences in model horizontal resolution.« less

A probabilistic method for constructing wave time-series at inshore locations using model scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.

2014-01-01

Continuous time-series of wave characteristics (height, period, and direction) are constructed using a base set of model scenarios and simple probabilistic methods. This approach utilizes an archive of computationally intensive, highly spatially resolved numerical wave model output to develop time-series of historical or future wave conditions without performing additional, continuous numerical simulations. The archive of model output contains wave simulations from a set of model scenarios derived from an offshore wave climatology. Time-series of wave height, period, direction, and associated uncertainties are constructed at locations included in the numerical model domain. The confidence limits are derived using statistical variability of oceanographic parameters contained in the wave model scenarios. The method was applied to a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico and assessed using wave observations at 12 m and 30 m water depths. Prediction skill for significant wave height is 0.58 and 0.67 at the 12 m and 30 m locations, respectively, with similar performance for wave period and direction. The skill of this simplified, probabilistic time-series construction method is comparable to existing large-scale, high-fidelity operational wave models but provides higher spatial resolution output at low computational expense. The constructed time-series can be developed to support a variety of applications including climate studies and other situations where a comprehensive survey of wave impacts on the coastal area is of interest.

Effects of artificial gravity on the cardiovascular system: Computational approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Artiles, Ana; Heldt, Thomas; Young, Laurence R.

2016-09-01

Artificial gravity has been suggested as a multisystem countermeasure against the negative effects of weightlessness. However, many questions regarding the appropriate configuration are still unanswered, including optimal g-level, angular velocity, gravity gradient, and exercise protocol. Mathematical models can provide unique insight into these questions, particularly when experimental data is very expensive or difficult to obtain. In this research effort, a cardiovascular lumped-parameter model is developed to simulate the short-term transient hemodynamic response to artificial gravity exposure combined with ergometer exercise, using a bicycle mounted on a short-radius centrifuge. The model is thoroughly described and preliminary simulations are conducted to show the model capabilities and potential applications. The model consists of 21 compartments (including systemic circulation, pulmonary circulation, and a cardiac model), and it also includes the rapid cardiovascular control systems (arterial baroreflex and cardiopulmonary reflex). In addition, the pressure gradient resulting from short-radius centrifugation is captured in the model using hydrostatic pressure sources located at each compartment. The model also includes the cardiovascular effects resulting from exercise such as the muscle pump effect. An initial set of artificial gravity simulations were implemented using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Compact-Radius Centrifuge (CRC) configuration. Three centripetal acceleration (artificial gravity) levels were chosen: 1 g, 1.2 g, and 1.4 g, referenced to the subject's feet. Each simulation lasted 15.5 minutes and included a baseline period, the spin-up process, the ergometer exercise period (5 minutes of ergometer exercise at 30 W with a simulated pedal cadence of 60 RPM), and the spin-down process. Results showed that the cardiovascular model is able to predict the cardiovascular dynamics during gravity changes, as well as the expected steady-state cardiovascular behavior during sustained artificial gravity and exercise. Further validation of the model was performed using experimental data from the combined exercise and artificial gravity experiments conducted on the MIT CRC, and these results will be presented separately in future publications. This unique computational framework can be used to simulate a variety of centrifuge configuration and exercise intensities to improve understanding and inform decisions about future implementation of artificial gravity in space.

Simulation And Forecasting of Daily Pm10 Concentrations Using Autoregressive Models In Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ağaç, Kübra; Koçak, Kasım; Deniz, Ali

2015-04-01

A time series approach using autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) were used in this study to simulate and forecast daily PM10 concentrations in Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul. Hourly PM10 concentrations have been measured in Kagithane Creek Valley between 2010 and 2014 periods. Bosphorus divides the city in two parts as European and Asian parts. The historical part of the city takes place in Golden Horn. Our study area Kagithane Creek Valley is connected with this historical part. The study area is highly polluted because of its topographical structure and industrial activities. Also population density is extremely high in this site. The dispersion conditions are highly poor in this creek valley so it is necessary to calculate PM10 levels for air quality and human health. For given period there were some missing PM10 concentration values so to make an accurate calculations and to obtain exact results gap filling method was applied by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). SSA is a new and efficient method for gap filling and it is an state-of-art modeling. SSA-MTM Toolkit was used for our study. SSA is considered as a noise reduction algorithm because it decomposes an original time series to trend (if exists), oscillatory and noise components by way of a singular value decomposition. The basic SSA algorithm has stages of decomposition and reconstruction. For given period daily and monthly PM10 concentrations were calculated and episodic periods are determined. Long term and short term PM10 concentrations were analyzed according to European Union (EU) standards. For simulation and forecasting of high level PM10 concentrations, meteorological data (wind speed, pressure and temperature) were used to see the relationship between daily PM10 concentrations. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was also applied to the data to see the periodicity and according to these periods models were built in MATLAB an Eviews programmes. Because of the seasonality of PM10 data SARIMA model was also used. The order of autoregression model was determined according to AIC and BIC criteria. The model performances were evaluated from Fractional Bias, Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). As expected, the results were encouraging. Keywords: PM10, Autoregression, Forecast Acknowledgement The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, project no:112Y319).

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Precipitation processes developed during TOGA COARE (1992), GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.

2006-01-01

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA GFDL, the U.K. Met. Office, Colorado State University and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. An improved 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was recently used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (september 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (May 18-26, June 2-11, 1998) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain and 41 vertical layers. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the differences and similarities in the simulated precipitation processes and their associated surface and water energy budgets in TOGA COARE, GATE, KWAJEX, and SCSMEX, and (2) to asses the impact of microphysics, radiation budget and surface fluxes on the organization of convection in tropics.

Simulating floods in the Amazon River Basin: Impacts of new river geomorphic and dynamic flow parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Howard, E. A.

2006-12-01

In this paper we analyze the hydrology of the Amazon River system for the latter half of the 20th century with our recently completed model of terrestrial hydrology (Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry, THMB). We evaluate the simulated hydrology of the Central Amazon basin against limited observations of river discharge, floodplain inundation, and water height and analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrology for the period 1939-1998. We compare the simulated discharge and floodplain inundated area to the simulations by Coe et al., 2002 using a previous version of this model. The new model simulates the discharge and flooded area in better agreement with the observations than the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed discharge for the greater than 27000 monthly observations of discharge at 120 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon is 0.9874 compared to 0.9744 for the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated monthly flooded area and the satellite-based estimates by Sippel et al., 1998 exceeds 0.7 for 8 of the 12 mainstem reaches. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the water height and the river slope compares favorably to the satellite altimetric measurements of height reported by Birkett et al., 2002.

Modelling the dynamo in fully convective M-stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Rakesh Kumar; Christensen, Ulrich; Morin, Julien; Wolk, Scott; Poppenhaeger, Katja; Reiners, Ansgar; gastine, Thomas

2017-05-01

M-stars are among the most active and numerous stars in our galaxy. Their activity plays a fundamentally important role in shaping the exoplanetary biosphere since the habitable zones are very close to these stars. Therefore, modeling M-star activity has become a focal point in habitability studies. The fully convective members of the M-star population demand more immediate attention due to the discovery of Earth-like exoplanets around our stellar neighbors Proxima Centauri and TRAPPIST-1 which are both fully convective. The activity of these stars is driven by their convective dynamo, which may be fundamentally different from the solar dynamo due the absence of radiative cores. We model this dynamo mechanism using high-resolution 3D anelastic MHD simulations. To understand the evolution of the dynamo mechanism we simulate two cases, one with a fast enough rotation period to model a star in the `saturated' regime of the rotation-activity realtionship and the other with a slower period to represent cases in the `unsaturated' regime. We find the rotation period fundamentally controls the behavior of the dynamo solution: faster rotation promotes strong magnetic fields (of order kG) on both small and large length scales and the dipolar component of the magnetic field is dominant and stable, however, slower rotation leads to weaker magnetic fields which exhibit cyclic behavior. In this talk, I will present the simulation results and discuss how we can use them to interpret several observed features of the M-star activity.

Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Several modelling studies reported potential impacts of soil moisture anomalies on regional climate. In particular for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. However, it is not clear yet whether or not soil moisture anomalies affect climate also on larger temporal and spatial scales. In an earlier study, we showed that soil moisture anomalies can persist for several seasons in the deeper soil layers of a land surface model. Additionally, those anomalies can influence root zone moisture, in particular during explicitly dry or wet periods. Thus, one prerequisite for predictability, namely the existence of long term memory, is evident for simulated soil moisture and might be exploited to improve climate predictions. The second prerequisite is the sensitivity of the climate system to soil moisture. In order to investigate this sensitivity for decadal simulations, we implemented a soil moisture assimilation scheme into the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The assimilation scheme is based on a simple nudging algorithm and updates the surface soil moisture state once per day. In our experiments, the MPI-ESM is used which includes model components for the interactive simulation of atmosphere, land and ocean. Artificial assimilation data is created from a control simulation to nudge the MPI-ESM towards predominantly dry and wet states. First analyses are focused on the impact of the assimilation on land surface variables and reveal distinct differences in the long-term mean values between wet and dry state simulations. Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are larger in the wet state compared to the dry state, resulting in an increased moisture transport from the land to atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, surface temperatures are lower in the wet state simulations by more than one Kelvin. In terms of spatial pattern, the largest differences between both simulations are seen for continental areas, while regions with a maritime climate are least sensitive to soil moisture assimilation.

Using High Resolution Satellite Precipitation fields to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on the Santa Cruz and San Pedro River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E.; Rivera-Fernandez, E. R.; Dominguez, F.; Meixner, T.

2013-05-01

Hydrologic modeling using high spatiotemporal resolution satellite precipitation products in the southwestern United States and northwest Mexico is important given the sparse nature of available rain gauges. In addition, the bimodal distribution of annual precipitation also presents a challenge as differential climate impacts during the winter and summer seasons are not currently well understood. In this work, we focus on hydrological comparisons using rainfall forcing from a satellite-based product, downscaled GCM precipitation estimates and available ground observations. The simulations are being conducted in the Santa Cruz and San Pedro river basins along the Arizona-Sonora border at high spatiotemporal resolutions (~100 m and ~1 hour). We use a distributed hydrologic model, known as the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to generate simulated hydrological fields under historical (1991-2000) and climate change (2031-2040) scenarios obtained from an application of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Using the distributed model, we transform the meteorological scenarios at 10-km, hourly resolution into predictions of the annual water budget, seasonal land surface fluxes and individual hydrographs of flood and recharge events. We compare the model outputs and rainfall fields of the WRF products against the forcing from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and available ground observations from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Arizona Meteorological Network (AZMET). For this contribution, we selected two full years in the historical period and in the future scenario that represent wet and dry conditions for each decade. Given the size of the two basins, we rely on a high performance computing platform and a parallel domain discretization with higher resolutions maintained at experimental catchments in each river basin. Model simulations utilize best-available data across the Arizona-Sonora border on topography, land cover and soils obtained from analysis of remotely-sensed imagery and government databases. In addition, for the historical period, we build confidence in the model simulations through comparisons with streamflow estimates in the region. The model comparisons during the historical and future periods will yield a first-of-its-kind assessment on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two large semiarid river basins of the southwestern United States

An Iberian climatology of solar radiation obtained from WRF regional climate simulations for 1950-2010 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, João; Salgado, Rui; Magarreiro, Clarisse; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Costa, Maria João; Dasari, Hari Prasad

2017-12-01

The mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used over the Iberian Peninsula to generate 60 years (1950-2010) of climate data, at 5 km resolution, in order to evaluate and characterize the incident shortwave downward radiation at the surface (SW ↓), in present climate. The simulated values of SW ↓ in the period 2000-2009 were compared with data measured in Spanish and Portuguese meteorological stations before and a statistical BIAS correction was applied using data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), on board four different satellites. The spatial and temporal comparison between WRF results and observations show a good agreement for the analyzed period, although the model overestimates observations. This overestimation has a mean normalized bias of about 7% after BIAS correction (or 17% for original WRF output). Additionally, the present simulation was confronted against another previously validated WRF simulation performed with different resolution and set of parametrizations, showing comparable results. WRF adequately reproduces the observational features of SW ↓ with correlation coefficients above 0.8 in annual and seasonal basis. 60 years of simulated SW ↓ over the Iberian Peninsula were produced, which showed annual mean values that range from 130 W/m2, in the northern regions, to a maximum of around 230 W/m2 in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). SW ↓ over IP shows a positive gradient from north to south and from west to east, with local effects influenced by topography and distance to the coast. The analysis of the simulated cloud fraction indicates that clear sky days are found in > 30% of the period at the southern area of IP, particularly in the Algarve (Portugal) and Andalusia (Spain), and this value increases significantly in the summer season for values above 80%.

Simulated effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, Oregon and California, using 2010 Biological Opinion flow requirements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Perry, Russell W.

2012-01-01

Computer model simulations were run to determine the effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, located in south-central Oregon and northern California, using flow requirements defined in the 2010 Biological Opinion of the National Marine Fisheries Service. A one-dimensional, daily averaged water temperature model (River Basin Model-10) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 10, Seattle, Washington, was used in the analysis. This model had earlier been configured and calibrated for the Klamath River by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Klamath Secretarial Determination to simulate the effects of dam removal on water temperatures for current (2011) and future climate change scenarios. The analysis for this report was performed outside of the scope of the Klamath Secretarial Determination process at the request of the Bureau of Reclamation Technical Services Office, Denver, Colorado.For this analysis, two dam scenarios were simulated: “dams in” and “dams out.” In the “dams in” scenario, existing dams in the Klamath River were kept in place. In the “dams out” scenario, the river was modeled as a natural stream, without the J.C. Boyle, Copco1, Copco2, and Iron Gate Dams, for the entire simulation period. Output from the two dam scenario simulations included daily water temperatures simulated at 29 locations for a 50-year period along the Klamath River between river mile 253 (downstream of Link River Dam) and the Pacific Ocean. Both simulations used identical flow requirements, formulated in the 2010 Biological Opinion, and identical climate conditions based on the period 1961–2009.Simulated water temperatures from January through June at almost all locations between J.C. Boyle Reservoir and the Pacific Ocean were higher for the “dams out” scenario than for the “dams in” scenario. The simulated mean monthly water temperature increase was highest [1.7–2.2 degrees Celsius (°C)] in May downstream of Iron Gate Dam. However, from August to December, dam removal generally cooled water temperatures. During these months, water temperatures decreased 1°C or more between Copco Lake and locations 50 miles or more downstream. The greatest mean monthly temperature decrease was 4°C in October just downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Near the ocean, the effects of dam removal were small (less than 0.2°C) for most months. However, the mean November temperature near the ocean was almost 0.5°C cooler with dam removal.

Event-based aquifer-to-atmosphere modeling over the European CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keune, J.; Goergen, K.; Sulis, M.; Shrestha, P.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.; Ohlwein, C.; Kollet, S. J.

2014-12-01

Despite the fact that recent studies focus on the impact of soil moisture on climate and especially land-energy feedbacks, groundwater dynamics are often neglected or conceptual groundwater flow models are used. In particular, in the context of climate change and the occurrence of droughts and floods, a better understanding and an improved simulation of the physical processes involving groundwater on continental scales is necessary. This requires the implementation of a physically consistent terrestrial modeling system, which explicitly incorporates groundwater dynamics and the connection with shallow soil moisture. Such a physics-based system enables simulations and monitoring of groundwater storage and enhanced representations of the terrestrial energy and hydrologic cycles over long time periods. On shorter timescales, the prediction of groundwater-related extremes, such as floods and droughts, are expected to improve, because of the improved simulation of components of the hydrological cycle. In this study, we present a fully coupled aquifer-to-atmosphere modeling system over the European CORDEX domain. The integrated Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, TerrSysMP, consisting of the three-dimensional subsurface model ParFlow, the Community Land Model CLM3.5 and the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of the German Weather Service, is used. The system is set up with a spatial resolution of 0.11° (12.5km) and closes the terrestrial water and energy cycles from aquifers into the atmosphere. Here, simulations of the fully coupled system are performed over events, such as the 2013 flood in Central Europe and the 2003 European heat wave, and over extended time periods on the order of 10 years. State and flux variables of the terrestrial hydrologic and energy cycle are analyzed and compared to both in situ (e.g. stream and water level gauge networks, FLUXNET) and remotely sensed observations (e.g. GRACE, ESA ICC ECV soil moisture and SMOS). Additionally, the presented modeling system may be useful in the assessment of groundwater-related uncertainties in virtual reality and scenario simulations.