Use of antimüllerian hormone to predict the menopausal transition in HIV-infected women

PubMed Central

Scherzer, Rebecca; Greenblatt, Ruth M.; Merhi, Zaher O.; Kassaye, Seble; Lambert-Messerlian, Geralyn; Maki, Pauline M.; Murphy, Kerry; Karim, Roksana; Bacchetti, Peter

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND HIV infection has been associated with early menopausal onset, which may have adverse long-term health consequences. Antimüllerian hormone, a biomarker of ovarian reserve and gonadal aging, is reduced in HIV-infected women. OBJECTIVE We sought to assess the relationship of antimüllerian hormone to age of menopause onset in HIV-infected women. STUDY DESIGN We used antimüllerian hormone levels measured in plasma in 2461 HIV-infected participants from the Women’s Interagency HIV Study to model the age at final menstrual period. Multivariable normal mixture models for censored data were used to identify factors associated with age at final menstrual period. RESULTS Higher antimüllerian hormone at age 40 years was associated with later age at final menstrual period, even after multivariable adjustment for smoking, CD4 cell count, plasma HIV RNA, hepatitis C infection, and history of clinical AIDS. Each doubling of antimüllerian hormone was associated with a 1.5-year increase in the age at final menstrual period. Median age at final menstrual period ranged from 45 years for those in the 10th percentile of antimüllerian hormone to 52 years for those in the 90th percentile. Other factors independently associated with earlier age at final menstrual period included smoking, hepatitis C infection, higher HIV RNA levels, and history of clinical AIDS. CONCLUSION Antimüllerian hormone is highly predictive of age at final menstrual period in HIV-infected women. Measuring antimüllerian hormone in HIV-infected women may enable clinicians to predict risk of early menopause, and potentially implement individualized treatment plans to prevent menopause-related comorbidities and to aid in interpretation of symptoms. PMID:27473002

A Model Program for Hearing-Handicapped Infants Providing Medical, Academic, and Psychological Services (HI-MAPS). Final Report, July 1979-June 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Laszlo; Pien, Diana

The document contains the final report of the HI-MAPS project, designed to develop a model program that would meet the medical, academic, and psychological needs of young hearing handicapped children, birth to 3 years, and their families in Chicago. An introductory section reviews project rationale, project philosophy, and overall project goals.…

Predictive models of long-term anatomic outcome in age-related macular degeneration treated with as-needed Ranibizumab.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Buendia, Lucia; Delgado-Tirado, Santiago; Sanabria, M Rosa; Fernandez, Itziar; Coco, Rosa M

2017-08-18

To analyze predictors and develop predictive models of anatomic outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with as-needed ranibizumab after 4 years of follow-up. A multicenter consecutive case series non-interventional study was performed. Clinical, funduscopic and OCT characteristics of 194 treatment-naïve patients with AMD treated with as-needed ranibizumab for at least 2 years and up to 4 years were analyzed at baseline, 3 months and each year until the end of the follow-up. Baseline demographic and angiographic characteristics were also evaluated. R Statistical Software was used for statistical analysis. Main outcome measure was final anatomic status. Factors associated with less probability of preserved macula were diagnosis in 2009, older age, worse vision, presence of atrophy/fibrosis, pigment epithelium detachment, and geographic atrophy/fibrotic scar/neovascular AMD in the fellow eye. Factors associated with higher probability of GA were presence of atrophy and greater number of injections, whereas male sex, worse vision, lesser change in central macular thickness and presence of fibrosis were associated with less probability of GA as final macular status. Predictive model of preserved macula vs. GA/fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 77.78% and specificity of 69.09%. Predictive model of GA vs. fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 68.89% and specificity of 72.22%. We identified predictors of final macular status, and developed two predictive models. Predictive models that we propose are based on easily harvested variables, and, if validated, could be a useful tool for individual patient management and clinical research studies.

TRANSPORT, FATE AND RISK IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTALLY ACCEPTABLE ENDPOINT DECISIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The second and third year project goals are the following: Continue to develop and finalize the expected source zone module incorporating slow release and finalize the contaminated soil screening model. Chemical rate of release data will be obtained and used with t...

Final Rule for Nonconformance Penalties for On-Highway Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is taking final action to establish nonconformance penalties (NCPs) for manufacturers of heavy heavy-duty diesel engines (HHDDE) in model years 2012 and later for emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) because we have found the criteria for NCPs.

Final-year diagnostic radiography students' perception of role models within the profession.

PubMed

Conway, Alinya; Lewis, Sarah; Robinson, John

2008-01-01

Within a clinical education setting, the value of role models and prescribed mentors can be seen as an important influence in shaping the student's future as a diagnostic radiographer. A study was undertaken to create a new understanding of how diagnostic radiography students perceive role models and professional behavior in the workforce. The study aimed to determine the impact of clinical education in determining modeling expectations, role model identification and attributes, and the integration of academic education and "hands-on" clinical practice in preparing diagnostic radiography students to enter the workplace. Thirteen final-year (third-year) diagnostic radiography students completed an hour-long interview regarding their experiences and perceptions of role models while on clinical placement. The key concepts that emerged illustrated that students gravitate toward radiographers who enjoy sharing practical experiences with students and are good communicators. Unique to diagnostic radiography, students made distinctions about the presence of role models in private versus public service delivery. This study gives insight to clinical educators in diagnostic radiography and wider allied health into how students perceive role models, interact with preceptors, and combine real-life experiences with formal learning.

Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2016 Home Health Prospective Payment System Rate Update; Home Health Value-Based Purchasing Model; and Home Health Quality Reporting Requirements. Final rule.

PubMed

2015-11-05

This final rule will update Home Health Prospective Payment System (HH PPS) rates, including the national, standardized 60-day episode payment rates, the national per-visit rates, and the non-routine medical supply (NRS) conversion factor under the Medicare prospective payment system for home health agencies (HHAs), effective for episodes ending on or after January 1, 2016. As required by the Affordable Care Act, this rule implements the 3rd year of the 4-year phase-in of the rebasing adjustments to the HH PPS payment rates. This rule updates the HH PPS case-mix weights using the most current, complete data available at the time of rulemaking and provides a clarification regarding the use of the "initial encounter'' seventh character applicable to certain ICD-10-CM code categories. This final rule will also finalize reductions to the national, standardized 60-day episode payment rate in CY 2016, CY 2017, and CY 2018 of 0.97 percent in each year to account for estimated case-mix growth unrelated to increases in patient acuity (nominal case-mix growth) between CY 2012 and CY 2014. In addition, this rule implements a HH value-based purchasing (HHVBP) model, beginning January 1, 2016, in which all Medicare-certified HHAs in selected states will be required to participate. Finally, this rule finalizes minor changes to the home health quality reporting program and minor technical regulations text changes.

One Year Program to Train Developers in Public Education Systems. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York Univ., NY. Inst. of Afro-American Affairs.

The purpose of this program to train developers in public education systems was to construct and test a viable model that would fulfill its training goals in one year and which could also be replicated under similar conditions by comparable institutions. The model involved a part-time program which provided theoretical and experiential training…

The Early Childhood Interactive Technology Literacy Curriculum Project: A Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutinger, Patricia; Robinsosn, Linda; Schneider, Carol; Johanson, Joyce

This final report describes the activities and outcomes of the Interactive Technology Literacy Curriculum (ITLC) project. This federally funded 5-year model demonstration project was designed to advance the availability, quality, use and effectiveness of computer technology in addressing the acquisition of emergent literacy among young children…

A predictive mathematical model for the calculation of the final mass of Graves' disease thyroids treated with 131I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traino, Antonio C.; Di Martino, Fabio; Grosso, Mariano; Monzani, Fabio; Dardano, Angela; Caraccio, Nadia; Mariani, Giuliano; Lazzeri, Mauro

2005-05-01

Substantial reductions in thyroid volume (up to 70-80%) after radioiodine therapy of Graves' hyperthyroidism are common and have been reported in the literature. A relationship between thyroid volume reduction and outcome of 131I therapy of Graves' disease has been reported by some authors. This important result could be used to decide individually the optimal radioiodine activity A0 (MBq) to administer to the patient, but a predictive model relating the change in gland volume to A0 is required. Recently, a mathematical model of thyroid mass reduction during the clearance phase (30-35 days) after 131I administration to patients with Graves' disease has been published and used as the basis for prescribing the therapeutic thyroid absorbed dose. It is well known that the thyroid volume reduction goes on until 1 year after therapy. In this paper, a mathematical model to predict the final mass of Graves' diseased thyroids submitted to 131I therapy is presented. This model represents a tentative explanation of what occurs macroscopically after the end of the clearance phase of radioiodine in the gland (the so-called second-order effects). It is shown that the final thyroid mass depends on its basal mass, on the radiation dose absorbed by the gland and on a constant value α typical of thyroid tissue. α has been evaluated based on a set of measurements made in 15 reference patients affected by Graves' disease and submitted to 131I therapy. A predictive equation for the calculation of the final mass of thyroid is presented. It is based on macroscopic parameters measurable after a diagnostic 131I capsule administration (0.37-1.85 MBq), before giving the therapy. The final mass calculated using this equation is compared to the final mass of thyroid measured 1 year after therapy administration in 22 Graves' diseased patients. The final masses calculated and measured 1 year after therapy are in fairly good agreement (R = 0.81). The possibility, for the physician, to decide a therapeutic activity based on the desired decrease of thyroid mass instead of on a fixed thyroid absorbed dose could be a new opportunity to cure Graves' disease.

Using Social Cognitive Theory to Explain the Intention of Final-year Pharmacy Students to Undertake a Higher Degree in Pharmacy Practice Research.

PubMed

Carter, Stephen R; Moles, Rebekah J; Krass, Ines; Kritikos, Vicki S

2016-08-25

Objective. To develop and test a conceptual model that hypothesized student intention to undertake a higher degree in pharmacy practice research (PPR) would be increased by self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, and the social influence of faculty members. Methods. Cross-sectional surveys were completed by 387 final-year pharmacy undergraduates enrolled in 2012 and 2013. Structural equation modeling was used to explore relationships between variables and intention. Results. Fit indices were good. The model explained 55% of the variation in intention. As hypothesized, faculty social influence increased self-efficacy and indirectly increased outcome expectancy and intention. Conclusion. To increase pharmacy students' orientation towards a career in PPR, faculty members could use their social influence by highlighting PPR in their teaching.

Availability model of stand-alone photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazurek, G.

2017-08-01

In this paper we present a simple, empirical model of stand-alone photovoltaic power system availability. The model is a final result of five-year long studies and ground measurements of solar irradiation carried out in Central Europe. The obtained results facilitate sizing of PV modules that have to be installed with taking into account system's availability level in each month of a year. The model can be extended to different geographical locations, with help of local meteorological data or solar irradiation datasets derived from satellite measurements.

"2+2" Articulated Health Occupations Project. Nursing Program. Second Year Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paris Independent School District, TX.

A project was conducted to develop a 2 + 2 articulated training program in health careers to link the last 2 years of secondary and the first 2 years of postsecondary training. During the second year of the secondary project, the first year of training was implemented and the model program was further developed and refined. Project tasks included…

Development and Implementation of a Model Training Program to Assist Special Educators, Parks and Resource Management Personnel and Parents to Cooperatively Plan and Conduct Outdoor/Environmental Education Programs for Handicapped Children and Youth. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vinton, Dennis A.; Zachmeyer, Richard F.

This final report presents a description of a 3-year project to develop and implement a model training program (for special education personnel, park and resource management personnel, and parents of disabled children) designed to promote outdoor environmental education for disabled children. The project conducted 22 training workshops (2-5 days)…

Alternatives for Jet Engine Control. Volume 1: Modelling and Control Design with Jet Engine Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sain, M. K.

1985-01-01

This document compiles a comprehensive list of publications supported by, or related to, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant NSG-3048, entitled "Alternatives for Jet Engine Control". Dr. Kurt Seldner was the original Technical Officer for the grant, at Lewis Research Center. Dr. Bruce Lehtinen was the final Technical Officer. At the University of Notre Dame, Drs. Michael K. Sain and R. Jeffrey Leake were the original Project Directors, with Dr. Sain becoming the final Project Director. Publications cover work over a ten-year period. The Final Report is divided into two parts. Volume i, "Modelling and Control Design with Jet Engine Data", follows in this report. Volume 2, "Modelling and Control Design with Tensors", has been bound separately.

Instructional Systems Development Model for Interactive Videodisc. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, J. Olin; And Others

This third and final report on a 3-year project, which developed authoring and production procedures for interactive videodisc based on the Interservice Procedures for Instructional Systems Development (IPISD), reviews the current state of the art, provides an overview of the project, and describes two videodiscs made for the project and the…

Title III: Curricular Development for Secondary Learning Disabilities. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, Libby

Presented is the final report of a 2-year project to develop an examplary model classroom program and curriculum for the secondary learning disabled student. Section I consists of completed forms entitled Project Completion Report, Termination Report, and Equipment Inventory. Outlined in Section II is information on the following project…

An Integrated Parent-Teacher-Related Service Team Approach to Communication Intervention. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stremel, Kathleen; Wilson, Rebecca

This final report describes a federally funded 3-year project for integrating related services within educational objectives for children (ages 3-10) with dual vision and hearing impairments. A Training-Utilization model of inservice training and technical assistance was developed, implemented, and evaluated to address the communication needs of…

Volunteerism in Special Education through Industry-Education Cooperation. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Donald M.; Hughes, James H.

The final report describes activities and products of a 3-year project to prepare private sector volunteers to become actively involved in special education through a networking system of industry-education partnerships. Using a trainer of trainers model, the project conducted workshops and produced a training package which includes a program…

School Age Multihandicapped Project: Capital Area Rehabilitation Center. Final Report 1977-1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capital Area Rehabilitation Center, Austin, TX.

The document contains the final report of a model project to provide a therapeutically based educational program for severely handicapped, orthopedically impaired children (6 to 21 years old) utilizing the skills of teachers, aides, therapists, and a nurse to provide individualized hands on services. Section I contains an overview of the…

The Choctaw Home-Centered Family Education Demonstration Project. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quigley, Patrick A.; And Others

The final report of the four-year (1972-1976) Choctaw Family Education Project identifies the major goal, "to demonstrate a workable early childhood model for rural reservation groups," and consists of an executive summary, a comprehensive report, and a personalized report. Objectives of the project, carried out in 6 Choctaw reservation…

A Model Scholar's Outpost on the Electronic Frontier. Final Performance Report, October 1993-September 1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Linda L.

This final report describes a two-year project to create a library-supported Scholar's Workstation that provides convenient, timely user access to information in or near the scholar's workplace, particularly in relation to environmental studies. The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) librarians demonstrated current and emerging information…

Consequences of Switching to Blended Learning: The Grenoble Medical School Key Elements.

PubMed

Houssein, Sahal; Di Marco, Lionel; Schwebel, Carole; Luengo, Vanda; Morand, Patrice; Gillois, Pierre

2018-01-01

In 2006, the Grenoble-Alpes University Medical School decided to switch the learning paradigm of the first year to a blended learning model based on a flipped classroom with a continuous dual assessment system providing personal follow-up. We report a descriptive analysis of two pedagogical models. The innovative blended learning model is divided into 5 week-sequences of learning, starting with a series of knowledge capsules, following with Interactive On Line Questions, Interactive On Site Training and an Explanation Meeting. The fourth and final steps are the dual assessment system that prepares for the final contest and the personal weekly follow-up. The data were extracted from the information systems over 17 years, during which the same learning model was applied. With the same student workload, the hourly knowledge/skills ratio decreased to approximately 50% with the blended learning model. The teachers' workload increased significantly in the first year (+70%), and then decreased each year (reaching -20%). Furthermore, the type of education has also changed for the teacher, from an initial hourly knowledge/skill ratio of 3, to a ratio of 1/3 with the new model after a few years. The institution also needed to resize the classroom from a large amphitheatre to small interactive learning spaces. There is a significant initial effort required to establish this model both for the teachers and for the institution, which have different needs and costs However, the satisfaction rates and the demand for extension to the other curriculums from medics and paramedics learners indicate that this model provides the enhanced learning paradigm of the future.

GDP and efficiency of Russian economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodachev, Sergey M.

2018-01-01

The goal is to study GDP (gross domestic product) as an unobservable characteristic of the Russian national economy state on the basis of more reliable observed data on gross output (systems output) and final consumption (systems control). To do this, the dynamic Leontief model is presented in a system-like form and its parameters and GDP dynamics are estimated by the Kalman filter (KF). We consider that all previous year's investments affect the growth of the gross output by the next year. The weights of these investments in the sum are equal to unity and decrease in geometric progression. The estimation of the model parameters was carried out by the maximum likelihood method. The original data on the gross output and final consumption in the period from 1995 to 2015 years where taken from the Rosstat website, where maximally aggregated economy of Russia is reflected in the system of national accounts. The growth of direct costs and capital expenditures at gross output increase has been discovered, which indicates the extensive character of the development of the economy. Investments are being absorbed 2 - 4 years; any change of them causes a surge of commissioned fixed assets fluctuation with a period of 2 years. Then these parameter values were used in the KF to estimate the states of the system. The emerging tendency of the transition of GDP growth to its fall means that the rate of growth of final consumption is higher than the rate of GDP growth. In general, the behavior of the curve of Rosstat GDP obviously follows the declared investments, whereas in the present calculation it is closer to the behavior of final consumption. Estimated GDP and investments that really increased it were significantly less after the crisis of 2008-2009 years than officially published data.

Design of Value-Added Models for IMPACT and TEAM in DC Public Schools, 2010-2011 School Year. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isenberg, Eric; Hock, Heinrich

2011-01-01

This report presents the value-added models that will be used to measure school and teacher effectiveness in the District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS) in the 2010-2011 school year. It updates the earlier technical report, "Measuring Value Added for IMPACT and TEAM in DC Public Schools." The earlier report described the methods used…

The College Mathematics Experience and Changes in Majors: A Structural Model Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiteley, Meredith A.; Fenske, Robert H.

1990-01-01

Testing of a structural equation model with college mathematics experience as the focal variable in 745 students' final decisions concerning major or dropping out over 4 years of college yielded separate model estimates for 3 fields: scientific/technical, quantitative business, and business management majors. (Author/MSE)

Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment.

PubMed

Depta, Jeremiah P; Patel, Jayendrakumar S; Novak, Eric; Gage, Brian F; Masrani, Shriti K; Raymer, David; Facey, Gabrielle; Patel, Yogesh; Zajarias, Alan; Lasala, John M; Amin, Amit P; Kurz, Howard I; Singh, Jasvindar; Bach, Richard G

2015-02-21

Although lesions deferred revascularization following fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment have a low risk of adverse cardiac events, variability in risk for deferred lesion intervention (DLI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to estimate 1-year risk of DLI for coronary lesions where revascularization was not performed following FFR assessment. A prediction model for DLI was developed from a cohort of 721 patients with 882 coronary lesions where revascularization was deferred based on FFR between 10/2002 and 7/2010. Deferred lesion intervention was defined as any revascularization of a lesion previously deferred following FFR. The final DLI model was developed using stepwise Cox regression and validated using bootstrapping techniques. An algorithm was constructed to predict the 1-year risk of DLI. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.0 ± 2.3 years, 18% of lesions deferred after FFR underwent DLI; the 1-year incidence of DLI was 5.3%, while the predicted risk of DLI varied from 1 to 40%. The final Cox model included the FFR value, age, current or former smoking, history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention, multi-vessel CAD, and serum creatinine. The c statistic for the DLI prediction model was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.61-0.70). Patients deferred revascularization based on FFR have variation in their risk for DLI. A clinical prediction model consisting of five clinical variables and the FFR value can help predict the risk of DLI in the first year following FFR assessment. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Medicare Program; Prospective Payment System and Consolidated Billing for Skilled Nursing Facilities for FY 2017, SNF Value-Based Purchasing Program, SNF Quality Reporting Program, and SNF Payment Models Research. Final rule.

PubMed

2016-08-05

This final rule updates the payment rates used under the prospective payment system (PPS) for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) for fiscal year (FY) 2017. In addition, it specifies a potentially preventable readmission measure for the Skilled Nursing Facility Value-Based Purchasing Program (SNF VBP), and implements requirements for that program, including performance standards, a scoring methodology, and a review and correction process for performance information to be made public, aimed at implementing value-based purchasing for SNFs. Additionally, this final rule includes additional polices and measures in the Skilled Nursing Facility Quality Reporting Program (SNF QRP). This final rule also responds to comments on the SNF Payment Models Research (PMR) project.

An Immunized Aircraft Maneuver Selection System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Charles L.

2003-01-01

The objective of this project, as stated in the original proposal, was to develop an immunized aircraft maneuver selection (IAMS) system. The IAMS system was to be composed of computational and informational building blocks that resemble structures in natural immune systems. The ultimate goal of the project was to develop a software package that could be flight tested on aircraft models. This report describes the work performed in the first year of what was to have been a two year project. This report also describes efforts that would have been made in the final year to have completed the project, had it been continued for the final year. After introductory material is provided in Section 2, the end-of-year-one status of the effort is discussed in Section 3. The remainder of the report provides an accounting of first year efforts. Section 4 provides background information on natural immune systems while Section 5 describes a generic ar&itecture developed for use in the IAMS. Section 6 describes the application of the architecture to a system identification problem. Finally, Section 7 describes steps necessary for completing the project.

A Dissemination Model for New Technical Education Programs. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull, Daniel M.

The Technical Education Research Center-SW has conceived, tested, and refined a model for disseminating newly developed programs and materials throughout the nation. The model performed successfully in the dissemination of more than 50,000 educational units (modules) of Laser/Electro-Optics Technician (LEOT) materials during a four-year period…

What are the Starting Points? Evaluating Base-Year Assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Clarke, Leon E.

2012-12-01

A common feature of model inter-comparison efforts is that the base year numbers for important parameters such as population and GDP can differ substantially across models. This paper explores the sources and implications of this variation in Asian countries across the models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Because the models do not all have a common base year, each team was required to provide data for 2005 for comparison purposes. This paper compares the year 2005 information for different models, noting the degree of variation in important parameters, including population, GDP, primary energy, electricity, and CO2 emissions. Itmore » then explores the difference in these key parameters across different sources of base-year information. The analysis confirms that the sources provide different values for many key parameters. This variation across data sources and additional reasons why models might provide different base-year numbers, including differences in regional definitions, differences in model base year, and differences in GDP transformation methodologies, are then discussed in the context of the AME scenarios. Finally, the paper explores the implications of base-year variation on long-term model results.« less

Relationship between long working hours and depression: a 3-year longitudinal study of clerical workers.

PubMed

Amagasa, Takashi; Nakayama, Takeo

2013-08-01

To clarify how long working hours affect the likelihood of current and future depression. Using data from four repeated measurements collected from 218 clerical workers, four models associating work-related factors to the depressive mood scale were established. The final model was constructed after comparing and testing the goodness-of-fit index using structural equation modeling. Multiple logistic regression analysis was also performed. The final model showed the best fit (normed fit index = 0.908; goodness-of-fit index = 0.936; root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.018). Its standardized total effect indicated that long working hours affected depression at the time of evaluation and 1 to 3 years later. The odds ratio for depression risk was 14.7 in employees who were not long-hours overworked according to the initial survey but who were long-hours overworked according to the second survey. Long working hours increase current and future risks of depression.

TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) Updates for Final Data Version Release

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroodsma, Rachael A; Bilanow, Stephen; Ji, Yimin; McKague, Darren

2017-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) dataset released by the Precipitation Processing System (PPS) will be updated to a final version within the next year. These updates are based on increased knowledge in recent years of radiometer calibration and sensor performance issues. In particular, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) is used as a model for many of the TMI version updates. This paper discusses four aspects of the TMI data product that will be improved: spacecraft attitude, calibration and quality control, along-scan bias corrections, and sensor pointing accuracy. These updates will be incorporated into the final TMI data version, improving the quality of the data product and ensuring accurate geophysical parameters can be derived from TMI.

A theory of forest dynamics: Spatially explicit models and issues of scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pacala, S.

1990-01-01

Good progress has been made in the first year of DOE grant (number sign) FG02-90ER60933. The purpose of the project is to develop and investigate models of forest dynamics that apply across a range of spatial scales. The grant is one third of a three-part project. The second third was funded by the NSF this year and is intended to provide the empirical data necessary to calibrate and test small-scale (less than or equal to 1000 ha) models. The final third was also funded this year (NASA), and will provide data to calibrate and test the large-scale features of the models.

Maryland Family Support Services Consortium. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardner, James F.; Markowitz, Ricka Keeney

The Maryland Family Support Services Consortium is a 3-year demonstration project which developed unique family support models at five sites serving the needs of families with a developmentally disabled child (ages birth to 21). Caseworkers provided direct intensive services to 224 families over the 3-year period, including counseling, liaison and…

42 CFR § 414.1375 - Advancing care information performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1375... final score for MIPS payment year 2019 and each MIPS payment year thereafter. (b) Reporting for the...

Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2017 Home Health Prospective Payment System Rate Update; Home Health Value-Based Purchasing Model; and Home Health Quality Reporting Requirements. Final rule.

PubMed

2016-11-03

This final rule updates the Home Health Prospective Payment System (HH PPS) payment rates, including the national, standardized 60-day episode payment rates, the national per-visit rates, and the non-routine medical supply (NRS) conversion factor; effective for home health episodes of care ending on or after January 1, 2017. This rule also: Implements the last year of the 4-year phase-in of the rebasing adjustments to the HH PPS payment rates; updates the HH PPS case-mix weights using the most current, complete data available at the time of rulemaking; implements the 2nd-year of a 3-year phase-in of a reduction to the national, standardized 60-day episode payment to account for estimated case-mix growth unrelated to increases in patient acuity (that is, nominal case-mix growth) between CY 2012 and CY 2014; finalizes changes to the methodology used to calculate payments made under the HH PPS for high-cost "outlier" episodes of care; implements changes in payment for furnishing Negative Pressure Wound Therapy (NPWT) using a disposable device for patients under a home health plan of care; discusses our efforts to monitor the potential impacts of the rebasing adjustments; includes an update on subsequent research and analysis as a result of the findings from the home health study; and finalizes changes to the Home Health Value-Based Purchasing (HHVBP) Model, which was implemented on January 1, 2016; and updates to the Home Health Quality Reporting Program (HH QRP).

Cost and Schedule Analytical Techniques Development: Option 2 Year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This Final Report summarizes the activities performed by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the Option 2 Year from December 1, 1996 through November 30, 1997. The Final Report is in compliance with Paragraph 5 of Section F of the contract. This CSATD contract provides products and deliverable in the form of models, data bases, methodologies, studies and analyses for the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Engineering Cost Office (PPO3) the Program Plans and Requirements Officer (PP02), and other user organizations. Detailed Monthly Progress reports were submitted to MSFC in accordance with the contract's Statement of Work, Section TV "Reporting and Documentation". These reports spelled out each month's specific work accomplishments, deliverables submitted, major meetings held, and other pertinent information. This Final Report will summarize these activities at higher level. During this contract Option Year, SAIC expended 29,830 man-hours in tile performance of tasks called out in the Statement of Work and reported oil in this yearly Final Report. This represents approximately 16 full-time EPs. Included are the basis Huntsville-based team, plus SAIC specialists in San Diego, Ames Research Center, Chicago, and Colorado Springs performing specific tasks for which they are uniquely qualified.

Latent Transition Analysis of Pre-Service Teachers' Efficacy in Mathematics and Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Elizabeth Kennedy

2009-01-01

This study modeled changes in pre-service teacher efficacy in mathematics and science over the course of the final year of teacher preparation using latent transition analysis (LTA), a longitudinal form of analysis that builds on two modeling traditions (latent class analysis (LCA) and auto-regressive modeling). Data were collected using the…

Pharmacokinetic Monitoring Of Vancomycin In Cystic Fibrosis: Is It Time To Move Past Trough Concentrations?

PubMed

Fusco, Nicholas M; Prescott, William A; Meaney, Calvin J

2018-05-04

A correlation between vancomycin trough concentrations (VTC) and area under the curve (AUC) to minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ratio (AUC/MIC) has not been established in children/adolescents with cystic fibrosis (CF). The primary objective of this study was to determine the correlation between measured VTCs and AUC/MIC using population-based pharmacokinetics. A retrospective cohort study of children/adolescents diagnosed with CF, age 6 to < 18 years, treated with vancomycin (VAN) for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection was conducted. The relationship between final VTCs and calculated AUC/MIC, using models established by Le et al and Stockmann et al, was assessed using Pearson and Spearman correlations. All tests were two-tailed with alpha set at 0.05. Thirty children/adolescents, age 7 to 17 years (median age 15 [IQR 9-17] years), were included. The mean final VAN dose was 58.03±18.58 mg/kg/day and the median final VTC was 12.6 (11-13.6) mg/L. The mean AUC/MIC was 355.34±138.46 (Le model) versus 426.79±178.92 (Stockmann model) (p=0.089). No correlation existed between VTCs and AUC/MIC using either the model by Le (r=0.140, p=0.461) or Stockmann (r=0.115; p=0.564). Using the Stockmann model: VAN dose (mg/kg/dose) was found to have a strong positive correlation with AUC (r=0.8874, p<0.0001) and AUC/MIC (r=0.7877, p<0.0001). VTCs did not correlate with AUC or AUC/MIC. Further research is needed to determine which estimate of VAN treatment efficacy is most appropriate for children and adolescents with CF infected with MRSA.

42 CFR § 510.305 - Determination of the NPRA and reconciliation process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.305 Determination of the NPRA and... final payment amounts to participant hospitals for CJR episodes for a given performance year. Following...

42 CFR § 510.305 - Determination of the NPRA and reconciliation process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2016-10-01

... OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.305 Determination of the NPRA and... final payment amounts to participant hospitals for CJR episodes for a given performance year. Following...

A Systemwide Approach to Improving Early Childhood Program Quality in the Detroit Metropolitan Area. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shouse, A. Clay; Epstein, Ann S.

This document is the final report of the McGregor-funded High/Scope training initiative, a system-wide approach to improving the quality of early childhood programs in the Detroit metropolitan area. The 3-year project was based on the validated High/Scope educational approach and training model, which advocates hands-on active learning for both…

Linking Metal Ions via Inorganic Click (iClick) Reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veige, Adam

2015-11-17

This final report discusses the major objectives of the project, a discussion of the objectives achieved, a discussion of the objectives that failed, and finally, a discussion of future directions given the new knowledge obtained. This one-year seed project (with one year no-cost extension) contained three objectives: A) Expand the scope of iClick synthesis beyond AuI/AuI reactions. B) Elucidate a CuI-catalyzed iClick reaction. C) Synthesize and characterize tri- and tetra-metallic complexes as models for metallopolymers. Objectives A and C were achieved, whereas only parts of objective B were achieved.

Early Tracking or Finally Leaving? Determinants of Early Study Success in First-Year University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brouwer, Jasperina; Jansen, Ellen; Hofman, Adriaan; Flache, Andreas

2016-01-01

Two theoretical approaches underlie this investigation of the determinants of early study success among first-year university students. Specifically, to extend Walberg's educational productivity model, this study draws on the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation in a contemporary university context. The survey data came from 407…

Wave-Sediment Interaction in Muddy Environments: A Field Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Geosciences project includes a field experiment on the Atchafalaya shelf, Louisiana, in Years 1 and 2 (2007-2008) and a data analysis and modeling effort in... analysis procedures. During the major field experiment effort in 2008 (Year 2), a total of 5 tripods were deployed at locations fronting the Atchafalaya...experiment effort. This final year of the project (2009, Year 3) has been focused upon data analysis and preparation of publications. APPROACH

75 FR 9596 - Environmental Impacts Statements; Notice of Availability

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-03

.... 20100057, Final EIS, NHTSA, 00, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Passenger Car and Light Trucks Model Years 2012-2016, To Reduce National Energy Consumption by Increasing the Fuel Economy of...

Microstructure Modeling of 3rd Generation Disk Alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jou, Herng-Jeng

2010-01-01

The objective of this program is to model, validate, and predict the precipitation microstructure evolution, using PrecipiCalc (QuesTek Innovations LLC) software, for 3rd generation Ni-based gas turbine disc superalloys during processing and service, with a set of logical and consistent experiments and characterizations. Furthermore, within this program, the originally research-oriented microstructure simulation tool will be further improved and implemented to be a useful and user-friendly engineering tool. In this report, the key accomplishment achieved during the second year (2008) of the program is summarized. The activities of this year include final selection of multicomponent thermodynamics and mobility databases, precipitate surface energy determination from nucleation experiment, multiscale comparison of predicted versus measured intragrain precipitation microstructure in quench samples showing good agreement, isothermal coarsening experiment and interaction of grain boundary and intergrain precipitates, primary microstructure of subsolvus treatment, and finally the software implementation plan for the third year of the project. In the following year, the calibrated models and simulation tools will be validated against an independently developed experimental data set, with actual disc heat treatment process conditions. Furthermore, software integration and implementation will be developed to provide material engineers valuable information in order to optimize the processing of the 3rd generation gas turbine disc alloys.

Risk of mortality after spinal cord injury: relationship with social support, education, and income.

PubMed

Krause, J S; Carter, R E

2009-08-01

Prospective cohort study. To identify the association of social support and socioeconomic factors with risk of early mortality among persons with spinal cord injury. Participants were identified from a large specialty hospital in the Southeastern United States. Data were collected by mailed survey, and mortality status was ascertained approximately 8 years later. The outcome was time from survey to mortality or censoring. Mortality status was determined using the National Death Index and the Social Security Death Index. There were 224 observed deaths (16.2%) in the full sample (n=1386). Because of missing data, the number of deaths used in the final analysis was 188 (out of 1249 participants). Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to build a comprehensive predictive model. After controlling for biographic and injury-related factors, two of four environmental predictors were retained in the final model including low income and general social support. Years of education and the upsets scale, another aspect of social support, were not retained in the final model. Inclusion of these variables resulted in only modest improvement in the prediction of survival compared with biographic and injury variables alone, as the pseudo-R(2) increased from 0.121 to 0.134 and the concordance from 0.730 to 0.751. Environmental factors are important predictors of mortality after spinal cord injury.

Validation of instruments to measure students' mathematical knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatimin, Nuraini; Zaharim, Azami; Aziz, Azrilah Abd

2015-02-01

This paper describes instruments' validation process to identify the suitability and accuracy of the final examination questions for engineering mathematics. As a compulsory subject for second year students from 4 departments in Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, the Differential Equations 1 course (KKKQ2124) was considered in this study. The data used in this study consists of the raw marks for final examination of semester 2, 2012/2013 session. The data then will be run and analyzed using the Rasch measurement model. Rasch model can also examine the ability of students and redundancy of instrument constructs.

77 FR 64051 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-18

...This document contains corrections to the final rule regulation which was published in the Federal Register of Monday, October 15, 2012 (77 FR 62624). The final rule established fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), 49 U.S.C. 32901 et seq.

Modelling regulation of decomposition and related root/mycorrhizal processes in arctic tundra soils. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkins, A.E.

1992-09-01

Since this was the final year of this project principal activities were directed towards either collecting data needed to complete existing incomplete data sets or writing manuscripts. Data sets on Imnaviat Creek watershed basin are functionally complete and data finialized on the cellulose mineralizaiton and dust impact on soil organic carbon and phsophorus decomposition. Seven manuscripts were prepared, and are briefly outlined.

Modeling Clinical Outcomes in Prostate Cancer: Application and Validation of the Discrete Event Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Pan, Feng; Reifsnider, Odette; Zheng, Ying; Proskorovsky, Irina; Li, Tracy; He, Jianming; Sorensen, Sonja V

2018-04-01

Treatment landscape in prostate cancer has changed dramatically with the emergence of new medicines in the past few years. The traditional survival partition model (SPM) cannot accurately predict long-term clinical outcomes because it is limited by its ability to capture the key consequences associated with this changing treatment paradigm. The objective of this study was to introduce and validate a discrete-event simulation (DES) model for prostate cancer. A DES model was developed to simulate overall survival (OS) and other clinical outcomes based on patient characteristics, treatment received, and disease progression history. We tested and validated this model with clinical trial data from the abiraterone acetate phase III trial (COU-AA-302). The model was constructed with interim data (55% death) and validated with the final data (96% death). Predicted OS values were also compared with those from the SPM. The DES model's predicted time to chemotherapy and OS are highly consistent with the final observed data. The model accurately predicts the OS hazard ratio from the final data cut (predicted: 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.85 and final actual: 0.74; 95% CI 0.6-0.88). The log-rank test to compare the observed and predicted OS curves indicated no statistically significant difference between observed and predicted curves. However, the predictions from the SPM based on interim data deviated significantly from the final data. Our study showed that a DES model with properly developed risk equations presents considerable improvements to the more traditional SPM in flexibility and predictive accuracy of long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Employing the Five-Factor Mentoring Instrument: Analysing Mentoring Practices for Teaching Primary Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Peter; Usak, Muhammet; Savran-Gencer, Ayse

2009-01-01

Primary science education is a concern around the world and quality mentoring within schools can develop pre-service teachers' practices. A five-factor model for mentoring has been identified, namely, personal attributes, system requirements, pedagogical knowledge, modelling, and feedback. Final-year pre-service teachers (mentees, n = 211) from…

Advanced Technology Tech Prep Partnership for Northern Kane Regional Delivery System. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elgin Community Coll., IL.

A 1-year project was undertaken to continue implementation, evaluation, and revision of a model advanced technology partnership between Elgin Community College (ECC) and the Northern Kane Regional Delivery System in Illinois. The model program, which originally included three high schools, was expanded to include five additional high schools in…

The Volunteers in Partnership with Parents (VIPP) Final Performance and Evaluation Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Lynda A.

Over the 3 years of funding, 1983-1986, the Volunteers in Partnership with Parents Project (VIPP), a Handicapped Children's Early Education Program (HCEEP) Model Demonstration Program funded by the U.S. Department of Education, designed and implemented a program model for parents in rural North Carolina who had significantly handicapped preschool…

Final Report: Demographic Tools for Climate Change and Environmental Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian

2017-01-24

This report summarizes work over the course of a three-year project (2012-2015, with one year no-cost extension to 2016). The full proposal detailed six tasks: Task 1: Population projection model Task 2: Household model Task 3: Spatial population model Task 4: Integrated model development Task 5: Population projections for Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) Task 6: Population exposure to climate extremes We report on all six tasks, provide details on papers that have appeared or been submitted as a result of this project, and list selected key presentations that have been made within the university community and at professional meetings.

Traffic operations modeling of Connecticut roundabouts : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-30

The Connecticut Department of Transportation (ConnDOT) has constructed four roundabouts in : the State of Connecticut within the past ten years. VISSIM, a microscopic traffic simulation software : program was utilized to analyze roundabout during the...

78 FR 35094 - Denial of Motor Vehicle Defect Petition, DP12-001

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-11

... ``Goldwing'' and was the heaviest motorcycle in BMW's lineup during those model years. As a ``full- dress... motorcycles (with distinct vehicle identification numbers) alleging final drive failures. These reports were...

Who Leaves Science? The First Year Experience at York University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grayson, J. Paul

This study examined student departure rates from the Faculty of Pure and Applied Science at York University in Ontario (Canada) using Tinto's (1987) model of student departure. Student records from 1992-93 were used to obtain data on grades in the final year of high school, sex, language status, and amount of student financial awards received;…

Chemistry Teaching for the Future: A Model for Secondary Chemistry Education for Sustainable Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jegstad, Kirsti Marie; Sinnes, Astrid Tonette

2015-01-01

For more than 40 years, the international community has acknowledged the role education might play in environmental awareness and conservation. The last major initiative came when the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed a Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014). In the final year of the decade, teachers still struggle to…

Effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program for 4-5-Year-Old Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Celebioglu Morkoc, Ozlem; Aktan Acar, Ebru

2014-01-01

This research examined the effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program (MUECIP) prepared for 4-5-year-old (48-60 months) children whose development is at risk because of their families' socioeconomic conditions. The research adopted a preliminary test-final test control group trial model. The research participants were…

Extrapolation of enalapril efficacy from adults to children using pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling.

PubMed

Kechagia, Irene-Ariadne; Kalantzi, Lida; Dokoumetzidis, Aristides

2015-11-01

To extrapolate enalapril efficacy to children 0-6 years old, a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model was built using literature data, with blood pressure as the PD endpoint. A PK model of enalapril was developed from literature paediatric data up to 16 years old. A PD model of enalapril was fitted to adult literature response vs time data with various doses. The final PKPD model was validated with literature paediatric efficacy observations (diastolic blood pressure (DBP) drop after 2 weeks of treatment) in children of age 6 years and higher. The model was used to predict enalapril efficacy for ages 0-6 years. A two-compartment PK model was chosen with weight, reflecting indirectly age as a covariate on clearance and central volume. An indirect link PD model was chosen to describe drug effect. External validation of the model's capability to predict efficacy in children was successful. Enalapril efficacy was extrapolated to ages 1-11 months and 1-6 years finding the mean DBP drop 11.2 and 11.79 mmHg, respectively. Mathematical modelling was used to extrapolate enalapril efficacy to young children to support a paediatric investigation plan targeting a paediatric-use marketing authorization application. © 2015 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Recent progress in tidal modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vial, F.; Forbes, J. M.

1989-01-01

Recent contributions to tidal theory during the last five years are reviewed. Specific areas where recent progress has occurred include: the action of mean wind and dissipation on tides, interactions of other waves with tides, the use of TGCM in tidal studies. Furthermore, attention is put on the nonlinear interaction between semidiurnal and diurnal tides. Finally, more realistic thermal excitation and background wind and temperature models have been developed in the past few years. This has led to new month-to-month numerical simulations of the semidiurnal tide. Some results using these models are presented and compared with ATMAP tidal climatologies.

Focus expansion and stability of the spread parameter estimate of the power law model for dispersal gradients

PubMed Central

Gent, David H.; Mehra, Lucky K.; Christie, David; Magarey, Roger

2017-01-01

Empirical and mechanistic modeling indicate that pathogens transmitted via aerially dispersed inoculum follow a power law, resulting in dispersive epidemic waves. The spread parameter (b) of the power law model, which is an indicator of the distance of the epidemic wave front from an initial focus per unit time, has been found to be approximately 2 for several animal and plant diseases over a wide range of spatial scales under conditions favorable for disease spread. Although disease spread and epidemic expansion can be influenced by several factors, the stability of the parameter b over multiple epidemic years has not been determined. Additionally, the size of the initial epidemic area is expected to be strongly related to the final epidemic extent for epidemics, but the stability of this relationship is also not well established. Here, empirical data of cucurbit downy mildew epidemics collected from 2008 to 2014 were analyzed using a spatio-temporal model of disease spread that incorporates logistic growth in time with a power law function for dispersal. Final epidemic extent ranged from 4.16 ×108 km2 in 2012 to 6.44 ×108 km2 in 2009. Current epidemic extent became significantly associated (P < 0.0332; 0.56 < R2 < 0.99) with final epidemic area beginning near the end of April, with the association increasing monotonically to 1.0 by the end of the epidemic season in July. The position of the epidemic wave-front became exponentially more distant with time, and epidemic velocity increased linearly with distance. Slopes from the temporal and spatial regression models varied with about a 2.5-fold range across epidemic years. Estimates of b varied substantially ranging from 1.51 to 4.16 across epidemic years. We observed a significant b ×time (or distance) interaction (P < 0.05) for epidemic years where data were well described by the power law model. These results suggest that the spread parameter b may not be stable over multiple epidemic years. However, b ≈ 2 may be considered the lower limit of the distance traveled by epidemic wave-fronts for aerially transmitted pathogens that follow a power law dispersal function. PMID:28649473

Re-Structuring Preservice Teacher Education: Introducing the School-Community Integrated Learning (SCIL) Pathway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudson, Sue; Hudson, Peter

2013-01-01

Reviews into teacher education call for new models that develop preservice teachers' practical knowledge and skills. The study involved 9 mentor teachers and 14 mentees (final-year preservice teachers) working in a new teacher education model, the School-Community Integrated Learning (SCIL) pathway, and analysed data from a Likert survey with…

76 FR 40898 - Final Priorities, Requirements, and Selection Criteria; Charter Schools Program (CSP) Grants for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-12

... schools. (3) A multi-year financial and operating model for the organization, a demonstrated commitment of... school model and to expand the number of high-quality charter schools available to students across the... percent threshold in this priority is consistent with the average percentage of students in large urban...

Model Developmental Program of Bilingual Education, Community School District 3, 1992-93. Final Evaluation Report. OREA Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rivera, Natasha F.

The federally funded Model Development Program of Bilingual Education served 385 students at one elementary and one middle school in Manhattan (New York) in 1992-93, its third year of operation. Participants included 168 native Spanish-speaking, limited-English-proficient (LEP) students and 217 English-proficient (EP) students, both…

An Evaluation of the Chicago Teacher Advancement Program (Chicago TAP) after Four Years. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glazerman, Steven; Seifullah, Allison

2012-01-01

In 2007, using funds from the federal Teacher Incentive Fund (TIF) and private foundations, the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) began piloting its version of a schoolwide reform model called the Teacher Advancement Program (TAP). Under the TAP model, teachers can earn extra pay and take on increased responsibilities through promotion (to mentor…

Exploring Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer: development of a prognostic model predicting 5-year survival after surgical resection†.

PubMed

Guerrera, Francesco; Errico, Luca; Evangelista, Andrea; Filosso, Pier Luigi; Ruffini, Enrico; Lisi, Elena; Bora, Giulia; Asteggiano, Elena; Olivetti, Stefania; Lausi, Paolo; Ardissone, Francesco; Oliaro, Alberto

2015-06-01

Despite impressive results in diagnosis and treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), more than 30% of patients with Stage I NSCLC die within 5 years after surgical treatment. Identification of prognostic factors to select patients with a poor prognosis and development of tailored treatment strategies are then advisable. The aim of our study was to design a model able to define prognosis in patients with Stage I NSCLC, submitted to surgery with curative intent. A retrospective analysis of two surgical registries was performed. Predictors of survival were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-centre correlation). Candidate predictors were: age, gender, smoking habit, morbidity, previous malignancy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, clinical N stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)), forced expiratory volume in 1 s, carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO), extent of surgical resection, systematic lymphadenectomy, vascular invasion, pathological T stage, histology and histological grading. The final model included predictors with P < 0.20, after a backward selection. Missing data in evaluated predictors were multiple-imputed and combined estimates were obtained from 10 imputed data sets. Analysis was performed on 848 consecutive patients. The median follow-up was 48 months. Two hundred and nine patients died (25%), with a 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of 74%. The final Cox model demonstrated that mortality was significantly associated with age, male sex, presence of cardiac comorbidities, DLCO (%), SUV(max), systematic nodal dissection, presence of microscopic vascular invasion, pTNM stage and histological grading. The final model showed a fair discrimination ability (C-statistic = 0.69): the calibration of the model indicated a good agreement between observed and predicted survival. We designed an effective prognostic model based on clinical, pathological and surgical covariates. Our preliminary results need to be refined and validated in a larger patient population, in order to provide an easy-to-use prognostic tool for Stage I NSCLC patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

School Resegregation: Residential and School Process Study. A Collaborative Leadership Planning/Training Project, Third Year: 1978-79. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Georgia

This report summarizes the work undertaken by the Berkeley Unified School District's (BUSD) project to define a collaborative leadership planning/training model to combat school resegregation. In 1972, four years after full desegregation, the BUSD experienced a marked shift in the school population and its distribution. In 1976, the BUSD committed…

Light Truck Capabilities, Utility Requirements, and Uses : Implications for Fuel Economy. Final Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-04-01

In April 1994, NHTSA issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rule Making (ANPRM) requesting information regarding light truck fuel economy capabilities for model years 1998 through 2006. Subsequently, in the Department of Transportation Appropriations ...

Human factors analysis of road weather advisory and control information : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-31

The amount of available weather information and the methods by which this information can be disseminated to travelers have grown considerably in recent years. This growth includes weather gathering devices (sensors, satellites), models and forecasti...

Relationship between oral health-related knowledge, attitudes and behavior among 15-16-year-old adolescents: a structural equation modeling approach.

PubMed

Tolvanen, Mimmi; Lahti, Satu; Miettunen, Jouko; Hausen, Hannu

2012-03-01

The aim of this study was to confirm the previously observed attitudinal factor structure related to behavioral change and the knowledge-attitude-behavior model on dental health and hygiene among adolescents. The study population consisted of all 8(th) and 9(th) graders (15-16 years) who started the 2004-2005 school year in Rauma, Finland (n = 827). Data on knowledge, attitudes, toothbrushing and using fluoride toothpaste were gathered by questionnaires. Hypothesized structure included four attitudinal factors related to dental health and hygiene: 'importance of toothbrushing when participating in social situations' (F1), 'importance of toothbrushing for health-related reasons and better appearance' (F2), 'being concerned about developing caries lesions' (F3) and 'importance of toothbrushing for feeling accepted' (F4). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the hypothesized model: pathways lead from knowledge to behavior both directly and via attitudes. The hypothesized model was also modified by removing non-significant pathways and studying the inter-relationships between attitudes. A confirmatory factor analysis revealed that factor F4 had to be removed. In the final model, knowledge influenced behavior directly and via two attitude factors, F1 and F2, which were inter-related. 'Concern about developing caries lesions' was a background factor influencing only knowledge. The final factor structure and SEM model were acceptable-to-good fit. Knowledge had a smaller effect on behavior than on attitudes. Our results support theories about the causal knowledge-attitudes-behavior chain, also for adolescents' oral health-related behaviors.

Assessing the Integration of Audience Response System Technology in Teaching of Anatomical Sciences

PubMed Central

Alexander, Cara J.; Crescini, Weronika M.; Juskewitch, Justin E.; Lachman, Nirusha; Pawlina, Wojciech

2009-01-01

The goals of our study were to determine the predictive value and usability of an audience response system (ARS) as a knowledge assessment tool in an undergraduate medical curriculum. Over a three year period (2006–2008), data were collected from first year didactic blocks in Genetics/Histology and Anatomy/Radiology (n=42–50 per class). During each block, students answered clinically oriented multiple choice questions using the ARS. Students’ performances were recorded and cumulative ARS scores were compared with final examination performances. Correlation coefficients between these variables were calculated to assess the existence and direction of an association between ARS and final examination score. If associations existed, univariate models were then constructed using ARS as a predictor of final examination score. Student and faculty perception of ARS difficulty, usefulness, effect on performance, and preferred use were evaluated using a questionnaire. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between ARS and final examination scores in all didactic blocks and predictive univariate models were constructed for each relationship (all P < 0.0001). Students and faculty agreed that ARS was easy to use and are liable tool for providing real-time feedback that improved their performance and participation. In conclusion, we found ARS to be an effective assessment tool benefiting the faculty and the students in a curriculum focused on interaction and self-directed learning. PMID:19670428

Assessing the integration of audience response system technology in teaching of anatomical sciences.

PubMed

Alexander, Cara J; Crescini, Weronika M; Juskewitch, Justin E; Lachman, Nirusha; Pawlina, Wojciech

2009-01-01

The goals of our study were to determine the predictive value and usability of an audience response system (ARS) as a knowledge assessment tool in an undergraduate medical curriculum. Over a three year period (2006-2008), data were collected from first year didactic blocks in Genetics/Histology and Anatomy/Radiology (n = 42-50 per class). During each block, students answered clinically oriented multiple choice questions using the ARS. Students' performances were recorded and cumulative ARS scores were compared with final examination performances. Correlation coefficients between these variables were calculated to assess the existence and direction of an association between ARS and final examination score. If associations existed, univariate models were then constructed using ARS as a predictor of final examination score. Student and faculty perception of ARS difficulty, usefulness, effect on performance, and preferred use were evaluated using a questionnaire. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between ARS and final examination scores in all didactic blocks and predictive univariate models were constructed for each relationship (all P < 0.0001). Students and faculty agreed that ARS was easy to use and a reliable tool for providing real-time feedback that improved their performance and participation. In conclusion, we found ARS to be an effective assessment tool benefiting the faculty and the students in a curriculum focused on interaction and self-directed learning. 2009 American Association of Anatomists

Mathematical Models for Immunology: Current State of the Art and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Eftimie, Raluca; Gillard, Joseph J; Cantrell, Doreen A

2016-10-01

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years.

Estimation of Particulate Mass and Manganese Exposure Levels among Welders

PubMed Central

Hobson, Angela; Seixas, Noah; Sterling, David; Racette, Brad A.

2011-01-01

Background: Welders are frequently exposed to Manganese (Mn), which may increase the risk of neurological impairment. Historical exposure estimates for welding-exposed workers are needed for epidemiological studies evaluating the relationship between welding and neurological or other health outcomes. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multivariate model to estimate quantitative levels of welding fume exposures based on welding particulate mass and Mn concentrations reported in the published literature. Methods: Articles that described welding particulate and Mn exposures during field welding activities were identified through a comprehensive literature search. Summary measures of exposure and related determinants such as year of sampling, welding process performed, type of ventilation used, degree of enclosure, base metal, and location of sampling filter were extracted from each article. The natural log of the reported arithmetic mean exposure level was used as the dependent variable in model building, while the independent variables included the exposure determinants. Cross-validation was performed to aid in model selection and to evaluate the generalizability of the models. Results: A total of 33 particulate and 27 Mn means were included in the regression analysis. The final model explained 76% of the variability in the mean exposures and included welding process and degree of enclosure as predictors. There was very little change in the explained variability and root mean squared error between the final model and its cross-validation model indicating the final model is robust given the available data. Conclusions: This model may be improved with more detailed exposure determinants; however, the relatively large amount of variance explained by the final model along with the positive generalizability results of the cross-validation increases the confidence that the estimates derived from this model can be used for estimating welder exposures in absence of individual measurement data. PMID:20870928

Self-management support by final year nursing students: A correlational study of performance and person-related associated factors.

PubMed

Duprez, Veerle; Beeckman, Dimitri; Verhaeghe, Sofie; Van Hecke, Ann

2017-09-01

Chronic conditions put a heavy burden on healthcare in every country. Supporting persons with a chronic illness to take an active role in the management of their condition is a core component in the Chronic Care Model. It implies confidence and good skills from professionals. To date, there is no evidence on final year nursing students' performance in supporting patients' self-management, nor on factors associated with this performance. To explore self-reported performance of supporting patients' self-management by final year nursing students, and person-related factors associated with this performance. A correlational multi-centre study of final year nursing students (N=256) from eight nursing schools. Students were recruited from a convenience sample of eight nursing schools. All final year students were invited to participate. Data were collected between January 2015 and May 2016 using self-administered validated questionnaires. Theoretical behavioural frameworks were used to select hypothesized associated factors for self-management support: self-efficacy to perform self-management support and socio-structural factors (Social Cognitive Theory); needs for autonomy, competence and relatedness, and patient-invested contingent self-esteem (Self-Determination Theory); and attitudes towards supporting patients' self-management (Theory of Planned Behaviour). Final year nursing students (N=256) reported an overall low level of performance in delivering self-management support during internship. Students lacked mainly competencies in collaborative goal setting and shared decision making. Students reported a significant gap between their confidence and their actual performance in self-management support (p<0.001). About 33% of the variance in students' performance is predicted by four person-related factors, i.e. self-efficacy to perform self-management support, general feeling of competency on internship, belief on patients' knowledge about condition management, and contingency of a student's professional self-esteem upon patients' achievements. Final year nursing students are actually not ready to support patients' self-management even though they will soon be in practice as qualified nurses. Nursing curricula should be further attuned to the complex competencies of self-management support. Special attention is needed to broaden the perspective on self-management support. Learning opportunities can be introduced in classroom activities and on internship. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kent State University's sustainable transportation initiative : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

This past year the author embarked on a study of sustainable transportation options in and around Kent State Universitys campus, including much of the city of Kent itself. Kents most recent Comprehensive Plan attempted to develop a model for th...

Light. Stop Faking It! Finally Understanding Science So You Can Teach It.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, William C.

This book is designed to help teachers bolster their content knowledge by focusing on specific science concepts regarding the topic of light. The book covers three scientific models of light and discusses the observations that can be explained by each model. Chapters include: (1) "LightN-The Early Years"; (2) "Colorful Waves"; (3) "Focus, People,…

Follow Through Final Report 1975-76. Atlanta Public Schools Research and Evaluation Report, Vol. X, No. 10, March 1977.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sylvan, Donna L.; Ballagas, Linda D.

During the 1975-76 school year, the Follow Through Program operated in grades kindergarten through third in four elementary schools, and in two nongraded primary schools. The Atlanta Follow Through Program implements the Interdependent Learning Model (ILM) developed by the late Dr. Lassar Gotkin. The Interdependent Learning Model presents a method…

The Design and Implementation of a Model Evaluation Capability. 1975-76 Final Report. Title III Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin Independent School District, TX. Office of Research and Evaluation.

The Austin Independent School District received an Elementary and Secondary Education Act Title III grant in 1973 to develop an internal research and evaluation capability. Funding was provided the resulting Office of Research and Evaluation (ORE) for three years. The foci of the original grant were (1) to develop a district evaluation model, (2)…

Modelling Job-Related and Personality Predictors of Intention to Pursue Accounting Careers among Undergraduate Students in Ghana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mbawuni, Joseph; Nimako, Simon Gyasi

2015-01-01

This study principally investigates job-related and personality factors that determine Ghanaian accounting students' intentions to pursue careers in accounting. It draws on a rich body of existing literature to develop a research model. Primary data were collected from a cross-sectional survey of 516 final year accounting students in a Ghanaian…

Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Stephen R.; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

2017-01-01

The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through "Bayesian model-emulation". We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of the spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

Bayesian model-emulation of stochastic gravitational-wave spectra for probes of the final-parsec problem with pulsar-timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Stephen; Simon, Joseph; Sampson, Laura

2017-01-01

The final parsec of supermassive black-hole binary evolution is subject to the complex interplay of stellar loss-cone scattering, circumbinary disk accretion, and gravitational-wave emission, with binary eccentricity affected by all of these. The strain spectrum of gravitational-waves in the pulsar-timing band thus encodes rich information about the binary population's response to these various environmental mechanisms. Current spectral models have heretofore followed basic analytic prescriptions, and attempt to investigate these final-parsec mechanisms in an indirect fashion. Here we describe a new technique to directly probe the environmental properties of supermassive black-hole binaries through ``Bayesian model-emulation''. We perform black-hole binary population synthesis simulations at a restricted set of environmental parameter combinations, compute the strain spectra from these, then train a Gaussian process to learn the shape of spectrum at any point in parameter space. We describe this technique, demonstrate its efficacy with a program of simulated datasets, then illustrate its power by directly constraining final-parsec physics in a Bayesian analysis of the NANOGrav 5-year dataset. The technique is fast, flexible, and robust.

Grouping Handicapped and Non-Handicapped Children in Mainstream Settings. The Functional Mainstreaming for Success (FMS) Project. Project Review Papers. Final Report--Part 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Striefel, Sebastian; And Others

The review papers are a product of the 3-year project, "Functional Mainstreaming for Success," designed to develop a model for instructional mainstreaming of 162 handicapped children (3-6 years old) in community settings. The major feature of the project was development of a full reverse mainstreamed preschool program, which included…

The Spectral Ocean Wave Model (SOWM), a Northern Hemisphere Computer Model for Specifying and Forecasting Ocean Wave Spectra

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

directions. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT A further sua-tion of (3) over the 15 frequency bands yields, within a linear model , the variance of a time history of...SPECTRAL Of.EAN WAVE MODEL (SOWM), A NORTHERN Final Report HEMtISPHEE COMPUTER MODELL Foyt SPECIFYING AND FORECASTING OCEAN WAVE .SftfTRA S EFRIGOG...Ocean Wave Model (SWM() In use at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center si.nce 1974 has been used to produce spectra for a 20- year ocean wave

Evaluation of RC Bridge Piers Retrofitted using Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (FRP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayanfar, M. A.; Zarrabian, M. S.

2008-07-01

For many long years, steel reinforcements have been considered as the only tool for concrete confinements and studied widely, but nowadays application of Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) as an effective alternative is well appreciated. Many bridges have been constructed in the past that are necessary to be retrofitted for resisting against the earthquake motions. The objective of this research is evaluation of nonlinear behavior of RC bridge piers. Eight RC bridge piers have been modeled by ABAQUS software under micromechanical model for homogeneous anisotropic fibers. Also the Bilinear Confinement Model by Nonlinear Transition Zone of Mirmiran has been considered. Then types and angles of fibers and their effects on the final responses were evaluated [1]. Finally, effects of retrofitting are evaluated and some suggestions presented.

75 FR 34946 - Federal Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention Standard; Final Listing of 2011 Light Duty Truck Lines...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

...This final rule announces NHTSA's determination that there are no new model year (MY) 2011 light duty truck lines subject to the parts-marking requirements of the Federal motor vehicle theft prevention standard because they have been determined by the agency to be high-theft or because they have a majority of interchangeable parts with those of a passenger motor vehicle line. This final rule also identifies those vehicle lines that have been granted an exemption from the parts-marking requirements because the vehicles are equipped with antitheft devices determined to meet certain statutory criteria.

76 FR 20251 - Federal Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention Standard; Final Listing of 2012 Light Duty Truck Lines...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-12

...This final rule announces NHTSA's determination that there are no new model year (MY) 2012 light duty truck lines subject to the parts-marking requirements of the Federal motor vehicle theft prevention standard because they have been determined by the agency to be high-theft or because they have a majority of interchangeable parts with those of a passenger motor vehicle line. This final rule also identifies those vehicle lines that have been granted an exemption from the parts-marking requirements because the vehicles are equipped with antitheft devices determined to meet certain statutory criteria.

78 FR 44030 - Federal Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention Standard; Final Listing of 2014 Light Duty Truck Lines...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-23

...This final rule announces NHTSA's determination that there are no new model year (MY) 2014 light duty truck lines subject to the parts-marking requirements of the Federal motor vehicle theft prevention standard because they have been determined by the agency to be high-theft or because they have a majority of interchangeable parts with those of a passenger motor vehicle line. This final rule also identifies those vehicle lines that have been granted an exemption from the parts-marking requirements because the vehicles are equipped with antitheft devices determined to meet certain statutory criteria.

Latent transition analysis of pre-service teachers' efficacy in mathematics and science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Elizabeth Kennedy

This study modeled changes in pre-service teacher efficacy in mathematics and science over the course of the final year of teacher preparation using latent transition analysis (LTA), a longitudinal form of analysis that builds on two modeling traditions (latent class analysis (LCA) and auto-regressive modeling). Data were collected using the STEBI-B, MTEBI-r, and the ABNTMS instruments. The findings suggest that LTA is a viable technique for use in teacher efficacy research. Teacher efficacy is modeled as a construct with two dimensions: personal teaching efficacy (PTE) and outcome expectancy (OE). Findings suggest that the mathematics and science teaching efficacy (PTE) of pre-service teachers is a multi-class phenomena. The analyses revealed a four-class model of PTE at the beginning and end of the final year of teacher training. Results indicate that when pre-service teachers transition between classes, they tend to move from a lower efficacy class into a higher efficacy class. In addition, the findings suggest that time-varying variables (attitudes and beliefs) and time-invariant variables (previous coursework, previous experiences, and teacher perceptions) are statistically significant predictors of efficacy class membership. Further, analyses suggest that the measures used to assess outcome expectancy are not suitable for LCA and LTA procedures.

Improved prediction models for PCC pavement performance-related specifications, volume I : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The current performance-related specifications (PRS) methodology has been under development by the Federal : Highway Administration (FHWA) for several years and has now reached a level at which it can be implemented by : State highway agencies. PRS f...

Direct Final Rule for Exhaust Emission Standards for 2012 and Later Model Year Snowmobiles

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this action removing the NOX component from the Phase 3 emission standard calculation and deferring action on the 2012 CO and HC emission standards portion of the court’s remand to a separate rulemaking action.

Fatigue crack modeling in bridge deck connection details : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

Many steel bridges built prior to 1960 have bridge deck connections that are subject to high cycle fatigue. These connections may be nearing their fatigue limit and will require increased inspection and repair over the next 10 - 20 years. Current ins...

Integrating meso- and micro-simulation models to evaluate traffic management strategies - year 1 : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

In this project the researchers developed a hierarchical multi-resolution traffic simulation system for metropolitan areas, referred to as MetroSim. Categorically, the focus is on integrating two types of simulation: microscopic simulation in which i...

Longitudinal changes in bone lead levels: the VA Normative Aging Study.

PubMed

Wilker, Elissa; Korrick, Susan; Nie, Linda H; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Coull, Brent; Wright, Robert O; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

2011-08-01

Bone lead is a cumulative measure of lead exposure that can also be remobilized. We examined repeated measures of bone lead over 11 years to characterize long-term changes and identify predictors of tibia and patella lead stores in an elderly male population. Lead was measured every 3 to 5 years by k-x-ray fluorescence and mixed-effect models with random effects were used to evaluate change over time. A total of 554 participants provided up to four bone lead measurements. Final models predicted a -1.4% annual decline (95% CI: -2.2 to -0.7) for tibia lead and piecewise linear model for patella with an initial decline of 5.1% per year (95% CI: -6.2 to -3.9) during the first 4.6 years but no significant change thereafter (-0.4% [95% CI: -2.4 to 1.7]). These results suggest that bone lead half-life may be longer than previously reported.

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Schonberg, Mara A; Li, Vicky W; Eliassen, A Heather; Davis, Roger B; LaCroix, Andrea Z; McCarthy, Ellen P; Rosner, Bernard A; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hankinson, Susan E; Marcantonio, Edward R; Ngo, Long H

2016-12-01

Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses' Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors) and 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency) and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women's Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Within 5 years, 1.8 % of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0 % in WHI-ES, p = 0.02), and 6.6 % experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2 % in WHI-ES, p < 0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model's c-statistic was 0.61 (95 % CI [0.60-0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55-0.58) in WHI-ES. On average, our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88-0.97]). We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women's individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Risk Factors for Extended Duration and Timing of Peak Severity of Hot Flashes

PubMed Central

Gallicchio, Lisa; Miller, Susan R.; Zacur, Howard A.; Flaws, Jodi A.

2016-01-01

Objective To identify risk factors associated with the duration of hot flashes and the time of peak hot flash severity in mid-life women. Methods A cohort of 647 women reporting hot flashes were followed for 1–7 years, with survey data and hormone measurements. Survival analysis determined the association of risk factors with the duration of hot flashes. Linear regression determined the association of risk factors with the time of peak severity. Final models were determined through stepwise model selection. Results Average hot flash duration was 2.5 years (range: 1–33), with peak severity on average at 2.96 years (range: 1–20). Duration of hot flashes was associated with race, education, menopause status, smoking history, BMI, alcohol consumption, leisure activity levels, and levels of estradiol and progesterone. In the final model, only race, alcohol consumption, leisure activity, and menopause were retained. White women had significantly shorter hot flash durations than non-white women. Women consuming at least 12 alcoholic drinks in the previous year had a significantly shorter duration of hot flashes with a smaller effect of hot flash duration on increasing in time to peak severity compared to those who consumed less than 12 alcoholic drinks in that year. Higher serum progesterone levels were associated with later peak severity if the duration of the hot flashes was less than 2 years and an earlier peak severity otherwise. Conclusions These results suggest that some behaviors (such as moderate alcohol consumption) are associated with shorter durations of hot flashes, and that progesterone was associated with the dynamics of hot flash severity. PMID:27149066

Drinking driver and traffic safety project. Volume 2, Probabilities for drinking drivers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-10-01

This is the second volume of a final report of a four-year study of drinking drivers. It includes a brief description of a prediction model developed from over 4000 cases, including drinking drivers, recidivist drinking drivers and drivers license ap...

Broiler house litter sampling: the final frontier

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Today, the sustainability of broiler operations reaches beyond the need for litter nutrient management plans that came to the forefront of the industry’s attention in the last fifteen years. Thorough characterization of litter within houses provides the basis for emission models to benefit growers,...

Quantification for complex assessment: uncertainty estimation in final year project thesis assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ho Sung

2013-12-01

A quantitative method for estimating an expected uncertainty (reliability and validity) in assessment results arising from the relativity between four variables, viz examiner's expertise, examinee's expertise achieved, assessment task difficulty and examinee's performance, was developed for the complex assessment applicable to final year project thesis assessment including peer assessment. A guide map can be generated by the method for finding expected uncertainties prior to the assessment implementation with a given set of variables. It employs a scale for visualisation of expertise levels, derivation of which is based on quantified clarities of mental images for levels of the examiner's expertise and the examinee's expertise achieved. To identify the relevant expertise areas that depend on the complexity in assessment format, a graphical continuum model was developed. The continuum model consists of assessment task, assessment standards and criterion for the transition towards the complex assessment owing to the relativity between implicitness and explicitness and is capable of identifying areas of expertise required for scale development.

Teaching veterinary obstetrics using three-dimensional animation technology.

PubMed

Scherzer, Jakob; Buchanan, M Flint; Moore, James N; White, Susan L

2010-01-01

In this three-year study, test scores for students taught veterinary obstetrics in a classroom setting with either traditional media (photographs, text, and two-dimensional graphical presentations) were compared with those for students taught by incorporating three-dimensional (3D) media (linear animations and interactive QuickTime Virtual Reality models) into the classroom lectures. Incorporation of the 3D animations and interactive models significantly increased students' scores on essay questions designed to assess their comprehension of the subject matter. This approach to education may help to better prepare students for dealing with obstetrical cases during their final clinical year and after graduation.

Predictors of Change in Adherence Status from 1 Year to the Next Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on Oral Antidiabetes Drugs.

PubMed

Saundankar, Vishal; Peng, Xiaomei; Fu, Haoda; Ascher-Svanum, Haya; Rodriguez, Angel; Ali, Ayad; Slabaugh, Lane; Young, Peinie; Louder, Anthony

2016-05-01

Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality, and medical resource utilization in the United States and worldwide. Treatment is aimed at keeping blood glucose levels close to normal and preventing or delaying medical complications. It has been estimated that only 50% of patients with diabetes in the United States achieve glycosylated hemoglobin A1c level < 7%. Nonadherence to antidiabetic medications has been identified as a major factor related to poor glycemic control. To (a) assess adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) whose adherence status to oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs) changed from 1 year to the next and (b) identify predictors of change in adherence status. This retrospective study of the Humana Medicare Advantage Database included patients with T2DM and continuous enrollment between 2010 and 2012. Proportion of days covered (PDC) by OADs was calculated for each of the 3 study years (2010, 2011, 2012). Patients were classified as adherent (PDC ≥ 80%) or nonadherent (PDC < 80%) during each year. Patient characteristics from the baseline period (2010) were used as covariates, and adherence status changes from baseline to follow-up year (2011) were used as response variables. Data from the subsequent study periods (2011 as baseline, 2012 as follow-up) were used to validate the model (final model). A total of 238,402 patients met inclusion criteria. Among them, 144,216 (60.5%) were adherent, and 94,186 (39.5%) were nonadherent during the baseline period. Change in adherence status from baseline to follow-up year was observed in 31,320 (21.7%) patients that were adherent and 39,284 (41.7%) patients that were nonadherent during the baseline year. The final model for baseline adherent patients had a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) index of 73% and a misclassification rate of 39%. The predictors of highest importance were identified as total number of prescriptions filled with 90-day supply, diabetes-related pill burden, longest gap in OADs, total number of antidiabetic classes filled, and copay for the last OAD filled. The final model had a sensitivity value of 76.4%. The final model for baseline nonadherent patients had a ROC index of 68%, a misclassification rate of 36.4%, and sensitivity value of 52.9%. The predictors of highest importance were diabetes-related pill burden, longest gap in OADs, month-wise patient oscillation from adherent to nonadherent during baseline year, total number of prescriptions filled with a 90-day supply, and total pill burden during the baseline year. One third of the T2DM patients changed adherence status from 1 year to the next, and factors associated with adherence status changes were identified. Predictive models such as those used in this study can serve as useful and cost-effective tools for payers, helping to identify members that should be targeted for adherence enhancement programs and, ultimately, to improve patients' long-term outcomes. Funding for this research was provided by Eli Lilly and Company. Comprehensive Health Insights, owned by Humana, completed this study. Peng, Fu, Ascher-Svanum, Ali, and Rodriguez are employees of Eli Lilly and Company. Saundankar and Louder are employed by Comprehensive Health Insights, and Slabaugh and Young are employed by Humana. Study concept and design were contributed by Peng, Ascher-Svanum, and Young. Saundankar and Louder took the lead in data collection, while Saundankar, Peng, Fu, and Louder interpreted the data. The manuscript was written by Saundankar, Peng, Fu, and Louder and revised by Saundankar, Rodriguez, Ali, and Louder.

On the Reciprocal Association Between Loneliness and Subjective Well-being

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Hawkley, Louise C.; Cacioppo, John T.

2012-01-01

Loneliness has been shown to longitudinally predict subjective well-being. The authors used data from a longitudinal population-based study (2002–2006) of non-Hispanic white, African-American, and nonblack Latino-American persons born between 1935 and 1952 and living in Cook County, Illinois. They applied marginal structural models for time-varying exposures to examine the magnitude and persistence of the effects of loneliness on subjective well-being and of subjective well-being on loneliness. Their results indicate that, if interventions on loneliness were made 1 and 2 years prior to assessing final subjective well-being, then only the intervention 1 year prior would have an effect (standardized effect = −0.29). In contrast, increases in subjective well-being 1 year prior (standardized effect = −0.26) and 2 years prior (standardized effect = −0.13) to assessing final loneliness would both have an effect on an individual's final loneliness. These effects persist even after control is made for depressive symptoms, social support, and psychiatric conditions and medications as time-varying confounders. Results from this study indicate an asymmetrical and persistent feedback of fairly substantial magnitude between loneliness and subjective well-being. Mechanisms responsible for the asymmetry are discussed. Developing interventions for loneliness and subjective well-being could have substantial psychological and health benefits. PMID:23077285

Pavement noise research : modeling of quieter pavements in Florida, final report, October 19, 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

The research on noise created by the tire/pavement interface, while relatively new, has seen considerable interest over the past few years because of the potential benefits and a general desire by the public for quieter highways. The Florida Departme...

42 CFR § 414.1330 - Quality performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1330 Quality... comprise: (1) 60 percent of a MIPS eligible clinician's final score for MIPS payment year 2019. (2) 50...

International electives in the final year of German medical school education--a student's perspective.

PubMed

Ebrahimi-Fakhari, Darius; Agrawal, Mridul; Wahlster, Lara

2014-01-01

The final year of medical school has a unique role for introducing students to their future responsibilities and challenges. At many medical schools, electives at an accredited institution abroad are a common part of the student's final year experience. International electives provide an opportunity for a personal and academic experience that will often create new perspectives on clinical medicine and research, medical education and healthcare policy. In this article the authors reflect on their experience as elective students abroad and discuss the contribution of international electives to the constant development and progress of local final year rotations. They identify key areas for improving final year electives and outline essential features for a valuable and successful final year elective.

Science of Test Research Consortium: Year Two Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-02

July 2012. Analysis of an Intervention for Small Unmanned Aerial System ( SUAS ) Accidents, submitted to Quality Engineering, LQEN-2012-0056. Stone... Systems Engineering. Wolf, S. E., R. R. Hill, and J. J. Pignatiello. June 2012. Using Neural Networks and Logistic Regression to Model Small Unmanned ...Human Retina. 6. Wolf, S. E. March 2012. Modeling Small Unmanned Aerial System Mishaps using Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Networks. 7

The Building Assets-Reducing Risks Program: Replication and Expansion of an Effective Strategy to Turn Around Low-Achieving Schools. i3 Development Grant. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corsello, Maryann; Sharma, Anu

2015-01-01

The Building Assets Reducing Risks (BARR) Model BARR is a comprehensive model that addresses the challenges that are part of the 9th grade transition year. BARR employs eight different school-wide and individual strategies that are built on positive relationships and ongoing monitoring of student data. In 2010, BARR received an Investing in…

The Economic Effects of Reduced Defense Spending

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

Macroeconomics Annual 1987 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press), pp. 263-315; and Leonardo Leiderman and Mario Blejer, " Modeling and Testing Ricardian ... model ), converting LIFT’s 78-sector forecasts of final demand by product to estimates for some 420 producing sectors. Unlike LIFT, DOM does not...24s in production in Fort Worth, Texas, during World War II. Photo is courtesy of Gen- eral Dynamics Corporation. Preface The past three years

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

PubMed

Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

2013-02-01

Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

2016-01-01

Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, p<0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07.

PubMed

Silveira, Jonas Augusto C; Colugnati, Fernando Antônio B; Cocetti, Monize; Taddei, José Augusto A C

2014-01-01

to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006) with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]). throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model) assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06]), middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77]), maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27]), birth weight ≥ 3.9kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67]), and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]). the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Forecasting the mortality rates of Indonesian population by using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safitri, Lutfiani; Mardiyati, Sri; Rahim, Hendrisman

2018-03-01

A model that can represent a problem is required in conducting a forecasting. One of the models that has been acknowledged by the actuary community in forecasting mortality rate is the Lee-Certer model. Lee Carter model supported by Neural Network will be used to calculate mortality forecasting in Indonesia. The type of Neural Network used is feedforward neural network aligned with backpropagation algorithm in python programming language. And the final result of this study is mortality rate in forecasting Indonesia for the next few years

The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

THE WORLD GRAIN ECONOMY AND CUMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000: IMPUCATIONS FOR POUCY REPORT ON THE FINAL PHASE OF A CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED...MODEL...................................... 37 APPENDIX B-A SUMMARY OF CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOTHE YR00............33 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES...114. PROJECTED BASE 2000 YIELDS .................. 1S LIST OF TABLES 1. CLIMATE PARAMETERS BY LATITUDINAL ZONES .. S 2. SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

a Review of Recent Research in Indoor Modelling & Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunduz, M.; Isikdag, U.; Basaraner, M.

2016-06-01

Indoor modeling and mapping has been an active area of research in last 20 years in order to tackle the problems related to positioning and tracking of people and objects indoors, and provides many opportunities for several domains ranging from emergency response to logistics in micro urban spaces. The outputs of recent research in the field have been presented in several scientific publications and events primarily related to spatial information science and technology. This paper summarizes the outputs of last 10 years of research on indoor modeling and mapping within a proper classification which covers 7 areas, i.e. Information Acquisition by Sensors, Model Definition, Model Integration, Indoor Positioning and LBS, Routing & Navigation Methods, Augmented and Virtual Reality Applications, and Ethical Issues. Finally, the paper outlines the current and future research directions and concluding remarks.

Validation of Model Simulations of Anvil Cirrus Properties During TWP-ICE: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zipser, Edward J.

2013-05-20

This 3-year grant, with two extensions, resulted in a successful 5-year effort, led by Ph.D. student Adam Varble, to compare cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations with the excellent database obtained during the TWP-ICE field campaign. The objective, largely achieved, is to undertake these comparisons comprehensively and quantitatively, informing the community in ways that goes beyond pointing out errors in the models, but points out ways to improve both cloud dynamics and microphysics parameterizations in future modeling efforts. Under DOE support, Adam Varble, with considerable assistance from Dr. Ann Fridlind and others, entrained scientists who ran some 10 different CRMs andmore » 4 different limited area models (LAMs) using a variety of microphysics parameterizations, to ensure that the conclusions of the study will have considerable generality.« less

Learning Groups: The Effects of Group Diversity on The Quality of Group Reflection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adelopo, Ismail; Asante, Joseph; Dart, Eleanor; Rufai, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

This study explores the quality of reflection, and how group diversity affects group reflection by final-year accounting and finance undergraduates using Mezirow's [(1991). "Transformative dimensions of adult learning." San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass] reflection model. Group work and reflective writing are now common assessment features…

40 CFR 91.509 - Calculation and reporting of test results.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... applicable emission standard expressed to one additional significant figure. (ASTM E29-93a has been... contained in the applicable standard expressed to one additional significant figure. (c) The final... expressed to one additional significant figure. (d) If, at any time during the model year, the CumSum...

40 CFR 91.509 - Calculation and reporting of test results.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... applicable emission standard expressed to one additional significant figure. (ASTM E29-93a has been... contained in the applicable standard expressed to one additional significant figure. (c) The final... expressed to one additional significant figure. (d) If, at any time during the model year, the CumSum...

Value of its information for congestion avoidance in inter-modal transportation systems : phase II, final report, March 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Our project has four major mile-stones for the second year: : Mile-stone #1: Develop Dynamic Inter-modal Transportation Optimization Models: For : mostly air-road network and inter-modal networks significant to OHIO : MICHIGAN regions and our collabo...

Kicking the Camel: Adolescent Smoking Behaviors after Two Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shillington, Audrey M.; Clapp, John D.

2000-01-01

Public Health Model was used to examine relationships between smoking severity (never smokers, former smokers, continued smokers) and host and environmental variables. Results indicate former smokers are more like never smokers on most risk and protective variables. Final analyses indicated continued smokers are more likely to be Non-Black and…

42 CFR § 414.1350 - Cost performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1350 Cost performance... category comprises: (1) 0 percent of a MIPS eligible clinician's final score for MIPS payment year 2019. (2...

42 CFR § 414.1355 - Improvement activities performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1355... comprises: (1) 15 percent of a MIPS eligible clinician's final score for MIPS payment year 2019 and for each...

AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT IN USA - TECHNICAL TOOLS AND LINKAGE TO HUMAN HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

This is an invited presentation to the Air4EU Final Conference to held in Prague, Czech Republic, on 10 November 2006. Air4EU is a jointly-sponsored, three-year European effort to provide recommendations on air quality assessment by monitoring and modeling for regulated pollutan...

Curriculum for Energy Use and Conservation Technicians. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull Daniel M.

A project designed a national curriculum model for Energy Conservation-and-Use Technicians (ECUTs) and developed and tested instructional materials for use in the courses. The two-year postsecondary ECUT curriculum was designed to provide an interdisciplinary technical base (electrical, mechanical, thermal, and fluidal principles) and technical…

40 CFR 90.706 - Engine sample selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... = emission test result for an individual engine. x = mean of emission test results of the actual sample. FEL... test with the last test result from the previous model year and then calculate the required sample size.... Test results used to calculate the variables in the following Sample Size Equation must be final...

Evaluation of electric vehicles as an alternative for work-trip and limited business commutes final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

This report presents the results of a four-year evaluation of an electric subcompact car. The principal finding was that the 1995-model electric car must be viewed in two contexts, the body/chassis/drive train and the battery/recharge system. Firstly...

Model Vocational Curriculum Development. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lake Stevens School District No. 4, WA.

This guidance instrument (student four-year planning form), middle school program, and student learning objectives for all career and vocational education courses to be changed or added represent the products of a Lake Stevens School District, Washington, curriculum development project. The guidance instrument is a form to be completed by…

Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Increase of the Vehicle Mass for 3-Wheeled Motorcycles

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This action changes the regulatory definition of a motorcycle to include 3-wheeled vehicles weighing up to 1749 pounds effective for 1998 and later model year motorcycles for which emission standards are in place.

Internship workplace preferences of final-year medical students at Zagreb University Medical School, Croatia: all roads lead to Zagreb.

PubMed

Polasek, Ozren; Kolcic, Ivana; Dzakula, Aleksandar; Bagat, Mario

2006-04-01

Human resources management in health often encounters problems related to workforce geographical distribution. The aim of this study was to investigate the internship workplace preferences of final-year medical students and the reasons associated with their choices. A total of 204 out of 240 final-year medical students at Zagreb University Medical School, Croatia, were surveyed a few months before graduation. We collected data on each student's background, workplace preference, academic performance and emigration preferences. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors underlying internship workplace preference, classified into two categories: Zagreb versus other areas. Only 39 respondents (19.1%) wanted to obtain internships outside Zagreb, the Croatian capital. Gender and age were not significantly associated with internship workplace preference. A single predictor variable significantly contributed to the logistic regression model: students who believed they would not get the desired specialty more often chose Zagreb as a preferred internship workplace (odds ratio 0.32, 95% CI 0.12-0.86). A strong preference for Zagreb as an internship workplace was recorded. Uncertainty about getting the desired specialty was associated with choosing Zagreb as a workplace, possibly due to more extensive and diverse job opportunities.

Perceived stress at transition to workplace: a qualitative interview study exploring final-year medical students’ needs

PubMed Central

Moczko, Tobias R; Bugaj, Till J; Herzog, Wolfgang; Nikendei, Christoph

2016-01-01

Objectives This study was designed to explore final-year medical students’ stressors and coping strategies at the transition to the clinical workplace. Methods In this qualitative study, semi-standardized interviews with eight final-year medical students (five male, three female; aged 25.9±1.4 years) were conducted during their internal medicine rotation. After verbatim transcription, a qualitative content analysis of students’ impressions of stress provoking and easing factors during final-year education was performed. Results Students’ statements regarding burdens and dealing with stress were classified into four main categories: A) perceived stressors and provoking factors, B) stress-induced consequences, C) personal and external resources for preventing and dealing with stress, and D) final-year students’ suggestions for workplace improvement. Conclusion Final-year medical students perceived different types of stress during their transition to medical wards, and reported both negative consequences and coping resources concerning perceived stress. As supervision, feedback, and coping strategies played an important role in the students’ perception of stress, final-year medical education curricula development should focus on these specifically. PMID:26834503

Competency-based learning in an ambulatory care setting: Implementation of simulation training in the Ambulatory Care Rotation during the final year of the MaReCuM model curriculum.

PubMed

Dusch, Martin; Narciß, Elisabeth; Strohmer, Renate; Schüttpelz-Brauns, Katrin

2018-01-01

Aim: As part of the MaReCuM model curriculum at Medical Faculty Mannheim Heidelberg University, a final year rotation in ambulatory care was implemented and augmented to include ambulatory care simulation. In this paper we describe this ambulatory care simulation, the designated competency-based learning objectives, and evaluate the educational effect of the ambulatory care simulation training. Method: Seventy-five final year medical students participated in the survey (response rate: 83%). The control group completed the ambulatory rotation prior to the implementation of the ambulatory care simulation. The experimental group was required to participate in the simulation at the beginning of the final year rotation in ambulatory care. A survey of both groups was conducted at the beginning and at the end of the rotation. The learning objectives were taken from the National Competency-based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Undergraduate Medical Education (NKLM). Results: The ambulatory care simulation had no measurable influence on students' subjectively perceived learning progress, the evaluation of the ambulatory care rotation, or working in an ambulatory care setting. At the end of the rotation participants in both groups reported having gained better insight into treating outpatients. At the beginning of the rotation members of both groups assessed their competencies to be at the same level. The simulated ambulatory scenarios were evaluated by the participating students as being well structured and easy to understand. The scenarios successfully created a sense of time pressure for those confronted with them. The ability to correctly fill out a narcotic prescription form as required was rated significantly higher by those who participated in the simulation. Participation in the ambulatory care simulation had no effect on the other competencies covered by the survey. Discussion: The effect of the four instructional units comprising the ambulatory care simulation was not measurable due to the current form or the measurement point at the end of the 12-week rotation. The reasons for this could be the many and statistically elusive factors relevant to the individual and the wide variety among final year rotation placements, the late point in time of the final survey, and the selection of simulated scenarios. The course is slated to undergo specific further development and should be supplemented with additional learning opportunities to ensure that the main learning objectives are covered. The description of the teaching format is meant to contribute to the ongoing development of medical education with an emphasis on competency in the areas of ambulatory care, communication, prevention and health promotion.

Final Technical Report for Year 5 Early Career Research Project "Viscosity and equation of state of hot and dense QCD matter"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Molnar, Denes

2016-05-25

The Section below summarizes research activities and achievements during the fifth (last) year of the PI’s Early Career Research Project (ECRP). Unlike the first four years of the project, the last year was not funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The ECRP advanced two main areas: i) radiative 3 ↔ 2 radiative transport, via development of a new computer code MPC/Grid that solves the Boltzmann transport equation in full 6+1D (3X+3V+time); and ii) application of relativistic hydrodynamics, via development of a self-consistent framework to convert viscous fluids to particles. In Year 5 we finalized thermalization studies withmore » radiative gg ↔ ggg transport (Sec. 1.1.1) and used nonlinear covariant transport to assess the accuracy of fluid-to-particle conversion models (Sec. 1.1.2), calculated observables with self-consistent fluid-to-particle conversion from realistic viscous hydrodynamic evolution (Secs. 1.2.1 and 1.2.2), extended the covariant energy loss formulation to heavy quarks (Sec. 1.4.1) and studied energy loss in small systems (Sec. 1.4.2), and also investigated how much of the elliptic flow could have non-hydrodynamic origin (Sec 1.3). Years 1-4 of the ECRP were ARRA-funded and, therefore, they have their own report document ’Final Technical Report for Years 1-4 of the Early Career Research Project “Viscosity and equation of state of hot and dense QCD matter”’ (same award number DE-SC0004035). The PI’s group was also part of the DOE JET Topical Collaboration, a multi-institution project that overlapped in time significantly with the ECRP. Purdue achievements as part of the JET Top- ical Collaboration are in a separate report “Final Technical Report summarizing Purdue research activities as part of the DOE JET Topical Collaboration” (award DE-SC0004077).« less

Long-term monitoring and prediction for settlement and composition of refuse in Shanghai Laogang Municipal Landfill.

PubMed

Jiangying, Liu; Dimin, Xu; Youcai, Zhao; Shaowei, Chen; Guojian, Li; Qi, Zhou

2004-09-01

Parameters about composition of refuse such as mass percentage of biodegradable matter, volatile solid, organic carbon, cellulose, total sugar, and settlement were monitored and analyzed in a large-scale experimental unit. The empirical formulas between composition and refuse age were established in terms of the data obtained from the experimental unit and verified by comparing with the corresponding parameters of refuse in the closed landfill units from 1991 until 1994 in the Shanghai Laogang Municipal Landfill. Furthermore, the long-term prediction for the composition of refuse was made, and it was predicted that the half-life is 7 to 11 years for biodegradable matter, 9 to 12 years for organic carbon or volatile solid, 7 to 16 years for cellulose, and 4 to 6 years for total sugar. In addition, a mathematical model, based on the mechanism of refuse biodegradation in the landfill, was developed to simulate the relationship between the settlement and the refuse age and manifests the secondary settlement potential. The mathematical model was proved not only to be reliable but also should be accurate for predicting the settlement of the landfill. The secondary settlement, which mainly results from the slow and gradual biodegradation of refuse, is linear with respect to the exponent of refuse age. Finally, according to the settlement model and empirical biodegradation formulas, it may be predicted that, 79.4% of biodegradable matter, 92.9% of total sugar, 72.7% of volatile solid and organic carbon, and 73.1% of cellulose will be biodegraded and that 79% of the maximum secondary settlement potential will occur before the Shanghai Laogang Municipal Landfill is in a high stabilization situation, i.e., approximately 21 years after final closure.

Prediction of First Cardiovascular Disease Event in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: The Steno Type 1 Risk Engine.

PubMed

Vistisen, Dorte; Andersen, Gregers Stig; Hansen, Christian Stevns; Hulman, Adam; Henriksen, Jan Erik; Bech-Nielsen, Henning; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

2016-03-15

Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but they are currently undertreated. There are no risk scores used on a regular basis in clinical practice for assessing the risk of CVD in type 1 diabetes mellitus. From 4306 clinically diagnosed adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, we developed a prediction model for estimating the risk of first fatal or nonfatal CVD event (ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease). Detailed clinical data including lifestyle factors were linked to event data from validated national registers. The risk prediction model was developed by using a 2-stage approach. First, a nonparametric, data-driven approach was used to identify potentially informative risk factors and interactions (random forest and survival tree analysis). Second, based on results from the first step, Poisson regression analysis was used to derive the final model. The final CVD prediction model was externally validated in a different population of 2119 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 2.9-10.9) a total of 793 (18.4%) patients developed CVD. The final prediction model included age, sex, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, smoking, and exercise. Discrimination was excellent for a 5-year CVD event with a C-statistic of 0.826 (95% confidence interval, 0.807-0.845) in the derivation data and a C-statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval, 0.767-0.839) in the validation data. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration (P>0.05) in both cohorts. This high-performing CVD risk model allows for the implementation of decision rules in a clinical setting. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Alcohol and other substance use among medical and law students at a UK university: a cross-sectional questionnaire survey.

PubMed

Bogowicz, Paul; Ferguson, Jennifer; Gilvarry, Eilish; Kamali, Farhad; Kaner, Eileen; Newbury-Birch, Dorothy

2018-03-01

To examine the use of alcohol and other substances among medical and law students at a UK university. Anonymous cross-sectional questionnaire survey of first, second and final year medical and law students at a single UK university. 1242 of 1577 (78.8%) eligible students completed the questionnaire. Over half of first and second year medical students (first year 53.1%, second year 59.7%, final year 35.9%) had an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score suggestive of an alcohol use disorder (AUDIT≥8), compared with over two-thirds of first and second year law students (first year 67.2%, second year 69.5%, final year 47.3%). Approximately one-quarter of medical students (first year 26.4%, second year 28.4%, final year 23.7%) and over one-third of first and second year law students (first year 39.1%, second year 42.4%, final year 18.9%) reported other substance use within the past year. Over one-third of medical students (first year 34.4%, second year 35.6%, final year 46.3%) and approximately half or more of law students (first year 47.2%, second year 52.7%, final year 59.5%) had a Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale anxiety score suggestive of a possible anxiety disorder. Study participants had high levels of substance misuse and anxiety. Some students' fitness to practice may be impaired as a result of their substance misuse or symptoms of psychological distress. Further efforts are needed to reduce substance misuse and to improve the mental well-being of students. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Knowledge and perception of physiotherapy by final year medical students of a Nigerian university.

PubMed

Odebiyi, D O; Omotunde, A O; Aiyejusunle, C B; Olalekan, T A

2008-01-01

It has been shown that multidisciplinary interactions have become a feature of the changing medical education system. It is not clear to what extent medical students have been integrated into this newer model, more especially at the College of Medicine of the University of Lagos (CMUL), AIM: To assess the level of knowledge and perception of physiotherapy by the final year medical students of CMUL about physiotherapy. Ninety eight final year medical students of CMUL participated in the study. They were required to complete a standard 22 item closed-ended questionnaire which was self administered. Data were presented as mean +/- standard deviation; Inferential statistics of chi-square and t-tests were used to compare differences between variables. The respondents displayed above average knowledge of physiotherapy as the mean scores obtained for knowledge of physiotherapy were 20.25 +/- 4.50 and 18.77 +/- 4.60 for males and females respectively. They also showed a fair perception towards physiotherapy as the mean scores obtained were 32.70 +/- 7.20 and 34.33 +/- 7.30 for males and females respectively. However there was a significant gender difference in the medical students' knowledge of physiotherapy (p < 0.05). The sampled final year medical students of CMUL had a good knowledge and fair perception of physiotherapy. Their main source of knowledge was classroom lectures. The need for further education of medical students with particular emphasis on clinical interaction was identified. It is hereby suggested that interprofessional courses and communication should be given greater attention during medical training.

A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

2016-12-01

Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.

The four hundred years of planetary science since Galileo and Kepler.

PubMed

Burns, Joseph A

2010-07-29

For 350 years after Galileo's discoveries, ground-based telescopes and theoretical modelling furnished everything we knew about the Sun's planetary retinue. Over the past five decades, however, spacecraft visits to many targets transformed these early notions, revealing the diversity of Solar System bodies and displaying active planetary processes at work. Violent events have punctuated the histories of many planets and satellites, changing them substantially since their birth. Contemporary knowledge has finally allowed testable models of the Solar System's origin to be developed and potential abodes for extraterrestrial life to be explored. Future planetary research should involve focused studies of selected targets, including exoplanets.

Longitudinal changes in bone lead levels: the VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Wilker, Elissa; Korrick, Susan; Nie, Linda H; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Coull, Brent; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

Objective Bone lead is a cumulative measure of lead exposure that can also be remobilized. We examined repeated measures of bone lead over 11 years to characterize long-term changes and identify predictors of tibia and patella lead stores in an elderly male population. Methods Lead was measured every 3–5 years by k-x-ray fluorescence and mixed-effect models with random effects were used to evaluate change over time. Results 554 participants provided up to 4 bone lead measurements. Final models predicted a −1.4% annual decline (95%CI: −2.2,−0.7) for tibia lead and piecewise linear model for patella with an initial decline of 5.1% per year (95%CI: −6.2,−3.9) during the first 4.6 years but no significant change thereafter (−0.4% (95% CI: −2.4, 1.7)). Conclusions These results suggest that bone lead half-life may be longer than previously reported. PMID:21788910

[Anthropometric model for the prediction of appendicular skeletal muscle mass in Chilean older adults].

PubMed

Lera, Lydia; Albala, Cecilia; Ángel, Bárbara; Sánchez, Hugo; Picrin, Yaisy; Hormazabal, María José; Quiero, Andrea

2014-03-01

To develop a predictive model of appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) based on anthropometric measurements in elderly from Santiago, Chile. 616 community dwelling, non-disabled subjects ≥ 60 years (mean 69.9 ± 5.2 years) living in Santiago, 64.6% female, participating in ALEXANDROS study. Anthropometric measurements, handgrip strength, mobility tests and DEXA were performed. Step by step linear regression models were used to associate ASM from DEXA with anthropometric variables, age and sex. The sample was divided at random into two to obtain prediction equations for both subsamples, which were mutually validated by double cross-validation. The high correlation between the values of observed and predicted MMAE in both sub-samples and the low degree of shrinkage allowed developing the final prediction equation with the total sample. The cross-validity coefficient between prediction models from the subsamples (0.941 and 0.9409) and the shrinkage (0.004 and 0.006) were similar in both equations. The final prediction model obtained from the total sample was: ASM (kg) = 0.107(weight in kg) + 0.251( knee height in cm) + 0.197 (Calf Circumference in cm) +0.047 (dynamometry in kg) - 0.034 (Hip Circumference in cm) + 3.417 (Man) - 0.020 (age years) - 7.646 (R2 = 0.89). The mean ASM obtained by the prediction equation and the DEXA measurement were similar (16.8 ± 4.0 vs 16.9 ± 3.7) and highly concordant according Bland and Altman (95% CI: -2.6 -2.7) and Lin (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.94) methods. We obtained a low cost anthropometric equation to determine the appendicular skeletal muscle mass useful for the screening of sarcopenia in older adults. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Scientific publications about DNA structure-function and PCR technique in Costa Rica: a historic view (1953-2003).

PubMed

Albertazzi, Federico J

2004-09-01

The spreading of knowledge depends on the access to the information and its immediate use. Models are useful to explain specific phenomena. The scientific community accepts some models in Biology after a period of time, once it has evidence to support it. The model of the structure and function of the DNA proposed by Watson & Crick (1953) was not the exception, since a few years later the DNA model was finally accepted. In Costa Rica, DNA function was first mentioned in 1970, in the magazine Biologia Tropical (Tropical Biology Magazine), more than 15 years after its first publication in a scientific journal. An opposite situation occurs with technical innovations. If the efficiency of a new scientific technique is proved in a compelling way, then the acceptance by the community comes swiftly. This was the case of the polymerase chain reaction, or PCR. The first PCR machine in Costa Rica arrived in 1991, only three years after its publication.

Possible options to slow down the advancement rate of Tarbela delta.

PubMed

Habib-Ur-Rehman; Rehman, Mirza Abdul; Naeem, Usman Ali; Hashmi, Hashim Nisar; Shakir, Abdul Sattar

2017-12-22

The pivot point of delta in Tarbela dam has reached at about 10.6 km from the dam face which may result in blocking of tunnels. Tarbela delta was modeled from 1979 to 2060 using hec-6 model. Initially, the model was calibrated for year 1999 and validated for years 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 by involving the data of sediment concentration, reservoir cross sections (73 range lines), elevation-area capacity curves, and inflows and outflows from the reservoir. Then, the model was used to generate future scenarios, i.e., run-1, run-2, and run-3 with pool levels; 428, 442, and 457 m, respectively, till 2060. Results of run-1 and run-2 showed advancement to choke the tunnels by 2010 and 2030, respectively. Finally, in run-3, the advancement was further delayed showing that tunnels 1 and 2 will be choked by year 2050 and pivot point will reach at 6.4 km from the dam face.

7-year of surface ozone in a coastal city of central Italy: Observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancofiore, Fabio; Verdecchia, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero; Tomassetti, Barbara; Aruffo, Eleonora; Busilacchio, Marcella; Bianco, Sebastiano; Di Tommaso, Sinibaldo; Colangeli, Carlo

2014-05-01

Hourly concentrations of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been measured for seven years, from 1998 to 2005, in a seaside town in the central Italy. Seasonal trends of O3 and NO2 recorded in the considered years are studied. Furthermore, we have focused our attention on data collected during the 2005, analyzing them using two different methods: a regression model and a neural network model. Both models are used to simulate the hourly ozone concentration, using several sets of input. In order to evaluate the performance of the model four statistical criteria are used: correlation coefficient (R), fractional bias (FB), normalized mean squared error (NMSE) e factor of two (FA2). All the criteria show that the neural network has better results compared to the regression model in all the simulations. In addiction we have tested some improvements of the neural network model, results of these tests are discussed. Finally, we have used the neural network to forecast the ozone hourly concentrations a day ahead and 1, 3, 6, 12 hour ahead. Performances of the model in predicting ozone levels are discussed.

Reproductive history and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in postmenopausal women: Findings from the Women’s Health Initiative

PubMed Central

LeBlanc, Erin S; Kapphahn, Kristopher; Hedlin, Haley; Desai, Manisha; Parikh, Nisha I.; Liu, Simin; Parker, Donna R.; Anderson, Matthew; Aroda, Vanita; Sullivan, Shannon; Woods, Nancy F.; Waring, Molly E.; Lewis, Cora E.; Stefanick, Marcia

2016-01-01

Objective To understand the association between women’s reproductive history and their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased risk. Methods Prospective cohort analysis of 124,379 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 from the Women’s Health Initiative. We determined age of menarche and final menstrual period, and history of irregular menses from questionnaires at baseline, and calculated reproductive length from age of menarche and final menstrual period. Presence of new onset type 2 diabetes was from self-report. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed associations between reproductive variables and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Results In age-adjusted models, women with the shortest (<30 years) reproductive periods had a 37% (95% CI = 30–45%) greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes than women with medium-length reproductive periods (36 to 40 years). Women with the longest (45+ years) reproductive periods had a 23% (95% CI = 12–37%) higher risk than women with medium-length periods. These associations were attenuated after full adjustment (HR of 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] for shortest and HR of 1.09 [0.99, 1.22] for longest, compared to medium duration). Those with a final menstrual period before age 45 and after age 55 had an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99, 1.09 and HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01, 1.14, respectively) compared to those with age of final menstrual period between 46 and 55. Timing of menarche and cycle regularity were not associated with risk after full adjustment. Conclusions Reproductive history may be associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Women with shorter and longer reproductive periods may benefit from lifestyle counseling to prevent type 2 diabetes. PMID:27465714

Project Developmental Continuity Evaluation: Final Report. Volume I: Outcomes of the PDC Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bond, James T.; And Others

The first of two volumes, this document reports an evaluation of Project Developmental Continuity (PDC), a Head Start demonstration project initiated in 1974 to develop program models which enhance children's social competence by fostering developmental continuity from preschool through the early elementary years. In general, the impact of program…

Pharmacology Students' Perceptions of Creating Multimodal Digital Explanations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nielsen, W.; Hoban G.; Hyland, C. J. T.

2017-01-01

Students can now digitally construct their own representations of scientific concepts using a variety of modes including writing, diagrams, 2-D and 3-D models, images or speech, all of which communicate meaning. In this study, final-year chemistry students studying a pharmacology subject created a ''blended media'' digital product as an assignment…

Alabama 622 Project Services to Deaf-Blind Children. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graham, Terry; Bosarge, Zackie

This report describes activities and accomplishments of a 3-year federally supported project to improve services to children (ages 0-21) with deaf-blindness in Alabama. The project utilized a service delivery model based on provision of state, regional, local, and individual technical assistance to service providers and families through three…

Teaching Sociology Students to Become Qualitative-Researchers Using an Internship Model of Learner-Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolich, Martin; Scarth, Bonnie; Shephard, Kerry

2015-01-01

This article examines the experiences of final year undergraduate sociology students enrolled in an internship course where they researched a local community project, mostly in small groups, for a client. A sociology lecturer supervised their projects. Course-related outcomes were assessed using conventional university procedures but a research…

COMPARISON OF N2O EMISSIONS FROM SOILS AT THREE TEMPERATE AGRICULTURAL SITES: SIMULATIONS OF YEAR-ROUND MEASUREMENTS BY FOUR MODELS. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Communicating and Teaching Languages: A Module for Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koglbauer, René; Andersen, Elizabeth; Stewart, Sophie

2016-01-01

This case study introduces a final year undergraduate module in the School of Modern Languages at Newcastle University. The module offers a model for embedding careers in modern languages teaching into the curriculum, and thereby enhancing student employability. The case study gives an insight into the various strands of activity undertaken by the…

Information Literacy in Oman's Higher Education: A Descriptive-Inferential Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Aufi, Ali; Al-Azri, Hamed

2013-01-01

This study aims to identify the current status of information literacy among the students at Sultan Qaboos University in their final year through using the Big6 model for solving information problems. The study utilizes self-assessment survey approach, with the questionnaire as a tool for data collection. It surveyed undergraduate students of…

Competency-Based Preservice Construction Trades Curriculum, Phase II. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelms, Howard F.

A two-phase curriculum project was undertaken in Illinois to develop, test, and implement a two-year competency-based model for the education of secondary school building construction teachers in the area of residential structures. During the first contract period, skill and knowledge competencies were identified and validated for thirteen units…

Task Analysis and Job Descriptions for Robotics/Automated Systems Technicians. Final Report. Volume 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull, Daniel M.; Lovett, James E.

The Robotics/Automated Systems Technician (RAST) project developed a robotics technician model curriculum for the use of state directors of vocational education and two-year college vocational/technical educators. A baseline management plan was developed to guide the project. To provide awareness, project staff developed a dissemination plan…

DEVELOPMENT OF THEORETICAL MODELS AND RESEARCH TECHNIQUES IN RACE RELATIONS. FINAL REPORT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

ANGELL, ROBERT C.; BARTH, WILLIAM P.

THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE 1964-66 ACTIVITIES OF A COOPERATIVE TEACHING AND RESEARCH PROGRAM AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AND TUSKEGEE INSTITUTE (ALABAMA). DURING THE 2-YEAR PERIOD SCHOLARS AND ADMINISTRATORS OF THE TWO INSTITUTIONS HAVE ESTABLISHED A NEW SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER AT TUSKEGEE, INCLUDING A SURVEY RESEARCH OPERATION WHICH…

Thinking about Evolution: Combinatorial Play as a Strategy for Exercising Scientific Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wingate, Richard J. T.

2011-01-01

An enduring focus in education on how scientists formulate experiments and "do science" in the laboratory has excluded a vital element of scientific practice: the creative and imaginative thinking that generates models and testable hypotheses. In this case study, final-year biomedical sciences university students were invited to create and justify…

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenquist, Ian; Tonks, Michael

2016-10-01

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add themore » capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2. The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON« less

Flight Dynamic Model Exchange using XML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, E. Bruce; Hildreth, Bruce L.

2002-01-01

The AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has worked for several years to develop a standard by which the information needed to develop physics-based models of aircraft can be specified. The purpose of this standard is to provide a well-defined set of information, definitions, data tables and axis systems so that cooperating organizations can transfer a model from one simulation facility to another with maximum efficiency. This paper proposes using an application of the eXtensible Markup Language (XML) to implement the AIAA simulation standard. The motivation and justification for using a standard such as XML is discussed. Necessary data elements to be supported are outlined. An example of an aerodynamic model as an XML file is given. This example includes definition of independent and dependent variables for function tables, definition of key variables used to define the model, and axis systems used. The final steps necessary for implementation of the standard are presented. Software to take an XML-defined model and import/export it to/from a given simulation facility is discussed, but not demonstrated. That would be the next step in final implementation of standards for physics-based aircraft dynamic models.

Forecasting High-Priority Infectious Disease Surveillance Regions: A Socioeconomic Model

PubMed Central

Chan, Emily H.; Scales, David A.; Brewer, Timothy F.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Pollack, Marjorie P.; Hoen, Anne G.; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S.

2013-01-01

Background. Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. Methods. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Results. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996–2008. Conclusions. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions. PMID:23118271

Medicare Program; End-Stage Renal Disease Prospective Payment System, Coverage and Payment for Renal Dialysis Services Furnished to Individuals With Acute Kidney Injury, End-Stage Renal Disease Quality Incentive Program, Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics and Supplies Competitive Bidding Program Bid Surety Bonds, State Licensure and Appeals Process for Breach of Contract Actions, Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics and Supplies Competitive Bidding Program and Fee Schedule Adjustments, Access to Care Issues for Durable Medical Equipment; and the Comprehensive End-Stage Renal Disease Care Model. Final rule.

PubMed

2016-11-04

This rule updates and makes revisions to the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prospective Payment System (PPS) for calendar year 2017. It also finalizes policies for coverage and payment for renal dialysis services furnished by an ESRD facility to individuals with acute kidney injury. This rule also sets forth requirements for the ESRD Quality Incentive Program, including the inclusion of new quality measures beginning with payment year (PY) 2020 and provides updates to programmatic policies for the PY 2018 and PY 2019 ESRD QIP. This rule also implements statutory requirements for bid surety bonds and state licensure for the Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies (DMEPOS) Competitive Bidding Program (CBP). This rule also expands suppliers' appeal rights in the event of a breach of contract action taken by CMS, by revising the appeals regulation to extend the appeals process to all types of actions taken by CMS for a supplier's breach of contract, rather than limit an appeal for the termination of a competitive bidding contract. The rule also finalizes changes to the methodologies for adjusting fee schedule amounts for DMEPOS using information from CBPs and for submitting bids and establishing single payment amounts under the CBPs for certain groupings of similar items with different features to address price inversions. Final changes also are made to the method for establishing bid limits for items under the DMEPOS CBPs. In addition, this rule summarizes comments on the impacts of coordinating Medicare and Medicaid Durable Medical Equipment for dually eligible beneficiaries. Finally, this rule also summarizes comments received in response to a request for information related to the Comprehensive ESRD Care Model and future payment models affecting renal care.

Inflationary cosmology: First 30+ years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Katsuhiko; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi

2015-08-01

Starting with an account of historical developments in Japan and Russia, we review inflationary cosmology and its basic predictions in a pedagogical manner. We also introduce the generalized G-inflation model, in terms of which all the known single-field inflation models may be described. This formalism allows us to analyze and compare the many inflationary models that have been proposed simultaneously and within a common framework. Finally, current observational constraints on inflation are reviewed, with particular emphasis on the sensitivity of the inferred constraints to the choice of datasets used.

Real-time dynamics and control strategies for space operations of flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, K. C.; Alvin, K. F.; Alexander, S.

1993-01-01

This project (NAG9-574) was meant to be a three-year research project. However, due to NASA's reorganizations during 1992, the project was funded only for one year. Accordingly, every effort was made to make the present final report as if the project was meant to be for one-year duration. Originally, during the first year we were planning to accomplish the following: we were to start with a three dimensional flexible manipulator beam with articulated joints and with a linear control-based controller applied at the joints; using this simple example, we were to design the software systems requirements for real-time processing, introduce the streamlining of various computational algorithms, perform the necessary reorganization of the partitioned simulation procedures, and assess the potential speed-up realization of the solution process by parallel computations. The three reports included as part of the final report address: the streamlining of various computational algorithms; the necessary reorganization of the partitioned simulation procedures, in particular the observer models; and an initial attempt of reconfiguring the flexible space structures.

Simulation-Based Model Checking for Nondeterministic Systems and Rare Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-24

year, we have investigated AO* search and Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithms to complement and enhance CMU’s SMCMDP. 1 Final Report, March 14... tree , so we can use it to find the probability of reachability for a property in PRISM’s Probabilistic LTL. By finding the maximum probability of...savings, particularly when handling very large models. 2.3 Monte Carlo Tree Search The Monte Carlo sampling process in SMCMDP can take a long time to

Final Technical Report- Virginia Solar Pathways Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond, Katharine; Cosby, Sarah

This Report provides a technical review of the final results of a funding award to Virginia Electric and Power Company (Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) or the Company) for a project under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office. The three-year project was formally known as the Virginia Solar Pathways Project (VSPP or the Project). The purpose of the VSPP was to develop a collaborative utility-administered solar strategy (Solar Strategy) for DEV’s service territory in the Commonwealth that could serve as a replicable model for other states with similar policy environments.

Deformation Response and Life of Metallic Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissenden, Cliff J.

2005-01-01

The project was initially funded for one year (for $100,764) to investigate the potential of particulate reinforced metals for aeropropulsion applications and to generate fatigue results that quantify the mean stress effect for a titanium alloy matrix material (TIMETAL 21S). The project was continued for a second year (for $85,000) to more closely investigate cyclic deformation, especially ratcheting, of the titanium alloy matrix at elevated temperature. Equipment was purchased (for $19,000) to make the experimental program feasible; this equipment included an extensometer calibrator and a multi-channel signal conditioning amplifier. The project was continued for a third year ($50,000) to conduct cyclic relaxation experiments aimed at validating the elastic-viscoelastic-viscoplastic model that NASA GRC had developed for the titanium alloy. Finally, a one-year no cost extension was granted to enable continued analysis of the experimental results and model comparisons.

Fire-protection research for energy technology: Fy 80 year end report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, H. K.; Alvares, N. J.; Lipska, A. E.; Ford, H.; Priante, S.; Beason, D. G.

1981-05-01

This continuing research program was initiated in order to advance fire protection strategies for Fusion Energy Experiments (FEE). The program expanded to encompass other forms of energy research. Accomplishments for fiscal year 1980 were: finalization of the fault-free analysis of the Shiva fire management system; development of a second-generation, fire-growth analysis using an alternate model and new LLNL combustion dynamics data; improvements of techniques for chemical smoke aerosol analysis; development and test of a simple method to assess the corrosive potential of smoke aerosols; development of an initial aerosol dilution system; completion of primary small-scale tests for measurements of the dynamics of cable fires; finalization of primary survey format for non-LLNL energy technology facilities; and studies of fire dynamics and aerosol production from electrical insulation and computer tape cassettes.

Searching for Majorana Neutrinos in the Like-Sign Dilepton Final State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarida, Warren

2010-02-01

The Standard Model can be extended to include massive neutrinos as observed in the recent oscillation experiments. Perhaps the most commonly studied model is the type-I seesaw mechanism. This model introduces a new neutrino with a Majorana nature with an unknown mass. In this study we present the potential for the discovery of a Majorana neutrino during the first year of data collection from the Large Hadron Collider. In the analysis we used muon triggers, muon isolation, jet energy corrections, b-tagging, and an examination of the combinatorial background. We conclude that the discovery potential can be reached in the first year of running at the LHC at 10 TeV startup collision energy with the CMS detector for the Majorana neutrino mass range near 100 GeV. )

Future healthcare professionals’ knowledge about the Argentinean abortion law

PubMed Central

Oizerovich, Silvia; Stray-Pedersen, Babill

2016-01-01

Objectives We assessed healthcare students’ knowledge and opinions on Argentinian abortion law and identified differences between first- and final-year healthcare students. Methods In this cross-sectional study, self-administered anonymous questionnaires were administered to 760 first- and 695 final-year students from different fields of study (medicine, midwifery, nursing, radiology, nutrition, speech therapy, and physiotherapy) of the School of Medicine at the University of Buenos Aires, in 2011-2013. Results Compared to first-year students, a higher percentage of final-year students knew that abortion is legally restricted in Argentina (p < 0.001). A significantly higher percentage of final-year students could correctly identify the circumstances in which abortion is legal: woman´s life risk (87.4% last vs. 79.1% first year), rape of a woman with developmental disability (66.2% first vs. 85.4% last-year; p < 0.001). More final-year students chose severe foetal malformations (37.3% first year vs. 57.3% final year) despite its being illegal. Conclusions Although most final-year students knew that abortion is legally restricted in Argentina, misconceptions regarding circumstances of legal abortion were observed; this may be due to the fact that abortion is inadequately covered in the medical curricula. Medical schools should ensure that sexual and reproductive health topics are an integral part of their curricula. Healthcare providers who are aware of the legality of abortion are more likely to provide the public with sound information and ensure abortions are appropriately performed. PMID:27018552

Modeling olive-crop forecasting in Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Dhiab, Ali; Ben Mimoun, Mehdi; Oteros, Jose; Garcia-Mozo, Herminia; Domínguez-Vilches, Eugenio; Galán, Carmen; Abichou, Mounir; Msallem, Monji

2017-05-01

Tunisia is the world's second largest olive oil-producing region after the European Union. This paper reports on the use of models to forecast local olive crops, using data for Tunisia's five main olive-producing areas: Mornag, Jemmel, Menzel Mhiri, Chaal, and Zarzis. Airborne pollen counts were monitored over the period 1993-2011 using a Cour trap. Forecasting models were constructed using agricultural data (harvest size in tonnes of fruit/year) and data for several weather-related and phenoclimatic variables (rainfall, humidity, temperature, Growing Degree Days, and Chilling). Analysis of these data revealed that the amount of airborne pollen emitted over the pollen season as a whole (i.e., the Pollen Index) was the variable most influencing harvest size. Findings for all local models also indicated that the amount, timing, and distribution of rainfall (except during blooming) had a positive impact on final olive harvests. Air temperature also influenced final crop yield in three study provinces (Menzel Mhiri, Chaal, and Zarzis), but with varying consequences: in the model constructed for Chaal, cumulative maximum temperature from budbreak to start of flowering contributed positively to yield; in the Menzel Mhiri model, cumulative average temperatures during fruit development had a positive impact on output; in Zarzis, by contrast, cumulative maximum temperature during the period prior to flowering negatively influenced final crop yield. Data for agricultural and phenoclimatic variables can be used to construct valid models to predict annual variability in local olive-crop yields; here, models displayed an accuracy of 98, 93, 92, 91, and 88 % for Zarzis, Mornag, Jemmel, Chaal, and Menzel Mhiri, respectively.

Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Mingtao; Ye, Zhirui; Shan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

A two-dimensional logistic model is proposed to describe the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership. The endogenous interaction between road networks and vehicle ownership and how natural market forces and policies transformed into their co-development are considered jointly in this model. If the involved parameters satisfy a certain condition, the proposed model can arrive at a steady equilibrium level and the final development scale will be within the maximum capacity of an urban traffic system; otherwise, the co-development process will be unstable and even manifest chaotic behavior. Then sensitivity tests are developed to determine the proper values for a series of parameters in this model. Finally, a case study, using Beijing City as an example, is conducted to explore the applicability of the proposed model to the real condition. Results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively simulate the co-development of road network and vehicle ownership for Beijing City. Furthermore, we can obtain that their development process will arrive at a stable equilibrium level in the years 2040 and 2045 respectively, and the equilibrium values are within the maximum capacity.

The use of sunscreen products among final year medicine and pharmacy students: A cross-sectional study of knowledge, attitude, practice, and perception

PubMed Central

Awadh, Ammar Ihsan; Jamshed, Shazia; Elkalmi, Ramadan M.; Hadi, Hazrina

2016-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the knowledge, attitude, perception, and practice of medical and pharmacy students toward the usage of sunscreen as protection for the skin against ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among final year medical and pharmacy undergraduates at the International Islamic University Malaysia. Validated questionnaires were distributed to 134 medical students and 100 pharmacy students. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used where appropriate. Findings: One hundred and sixty-one out of 234 participants completed the questionnaires. The participants comprised 101 medical students (75.4%) and sixty pharmacy students (60.0%). The majority of the respondents were females (102; 63.4%), and 59 (36.6%) were males. The median of the knowledge scores of the final year medical students was significantly lower than that of the final year pharmacy students (P < 0.001). The female students showed significantly higher knowledge scores than the male students (P = 0.027). This study reported that 24 (39.3%) pharmacy students were influenced by the media to use sunscreen, whereas 35 (34.7%) medical students were influenced the most by friends to use sunscreen. The final year pharmacy students had a better perception compared to the medical students, with the total perception score of the final year pharmacy students being significantly higher than that of the final year medical students (P = 0.020). Most of the participants were also aware of the harmful effects of UV radiation and had a positive reaction toward the usage of sunscreen to prevent those harmful effects. Conclusion: The knowledge and perception of final year pharmacy students were significantly higher than the knowledge and perception of final year medical students with regard to the usage of sunscreen. PMID:27512711

The Induction of Chaos in Electronic Circuits Final Report-October 1, 2001

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R.M.Wheat, Jr.

2003-04-01

This project, now known by the name ''Chaos in Electronic Circuits,'' was originally tasked as a two-year project to examine various ''fault'' or ''non-normal'' operational states of common electronic circuits with some focus on determining the feasibility of exploiting these states. Efforts over the two-year duration of this project have been dominated by the study of the chaotic behavior of electronic circuits. These efforts have included setting up laboratory space and hardware for conducting laboratory tests and experiments, acquiring and developing computer simulation and analysis capabilities, conducting literature surveys, developing test circuitry and computer models to exercise and test ourmore » capabilities, and experimenting with and studying the use of RF injection as a means of inducing chaotic behavior in electronics. An extensive array of nonlinear time series analysis tools have been developed and integrated into a package named ''After Acquisition'' (AA), including capabilities such as Delayed Coordinate Embedding Mapping (DCEM), Time Resolved (3-D) Fourier Transform, and several other phase space re-creation methods. Many computer models have been developed for Spice and for the ATP (Alternative Transients Program), modeling the several working circuits that have been developed for use in the laboratory. And finally, methods of induction of chaos in electronic circuits have been explored.« less

21 CFR 610.53 - Dating periods for licensed biological products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... ......do ......do 1 year. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group A: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2... years. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group C: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or... Polysaccharide Vaccine Groups A and C combined: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or colder) Not...

21 CFR 610.53 - Dating periods for licensed biological products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... ......do ......do 1 year. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group A: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2... years. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group C: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or... Polysaccharide Vaccine Groups A and C combined: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or colder) Not...

21 CFR 610.53 - Dating periods for licensed biological products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... ......do ......do 1 year. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group A: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2... years. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group C: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or... Polysaccharide Vaccine Groups A and C combined: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or colder) Not...

21 CFR 610.53 - Dating periods for licensed biological products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... ......do ......do 1 year. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group A: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2... years. Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Group C: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or... Polysaccharide Vaccine Groups A and C combined: 1. Final bulk powder ......do 2 years (−20 °C or colder) Not...

Internship workplace preferences of final-year medical students at Zagreb University Medical School, Croatia: all roads lead to Zagreb

PubMed Central

Polasek, Ozren; Kolcic, Ivana; Dzakula, Aleksandar; Bagat, Mario

2006-01-01

Background Human resources management in health often encounters problems related to workforce geographical distribution. The aim of this study was to investigate the internship workplace preferences of final-year medical students and the reasons associated with their choices. Method A total of 204 out of 240 final-year medical students at Zagreb University Medical School, Croatia, were surveyed a few months before graduation. We collected data on each student's background, workplace preference, academic performance and emigration preferences. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors underlying internship workplace preference, classified into two categories: Zagreb versus other areas. Results Only 39 respondents (19.1%) wanted to obtain internships outside Zagreb, the Croatian capital. Gender and age were not significantly associated with internship workplace preference. A single predictor variable significantly contributed to the logistic regression model: students who believed they would not get the desired specialty more often chose Zagreb as a preferred internship workplace (odds ratio 0.32, 95% CI 0.12–0.86). Conclusion A strong preference for Zagreb as an internship workplace was recorded. Uncertainty about getting the desired specialty was associated with choosing Zagreb as a workplace, possibly due to more extensive and diverse job opportunities. PMID:16579857

Short communication: final year students' deficits in physical examination skills performance in Germany.

PubMed

Krautter, Markus; Diefenbacher, Katja; Koehl-Hackert, Nadja; Buss, Beate; Nagelmann, Lars; Herzog, Wolfgang; Jünger, Jana; Nikendei, Christoph

2015-01-01

The physical examination of patients is an important diagnostic competence, but little is known about the examination skills of final-year medical students. To investigate physical examination skills of final-year medical students. In a cross-sectional study, 40 final-year students were asked to perform a detailed physical examination on standardized patients. Their performances were video-recorded and rated by independent video assessors. Video ratings showed a mean success rate of 40.1 % (SD 8.2). As regards accompanying doctor-patient communication, final-year students achieved a mean of no more than 36.7 % (SD 8.9) in the appropriate use of the corresponding communication items. Our study revealed severe deficits among final-year medical students in performing a detailed physical examination on a standardized patient. Thus, physical examination skills training should aim to improve these deficits while also paying attention to communicative aspects. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scafetta, Nicola

2016-04-01

The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced mostly by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. Scafetta, N.: Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.- Terr. Phys. 80, 296-311 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys. Space Sci. 354, 275-299 (2014).

Easing the transition: the final year of medical education at Maastricht University.

PubMed

van den Akker, Marjan; Dornan, Tim; Scherpbier, Albert J J A; oude Egbrink, Mirjam G A; Snoeckx, Luc H E H

2012-01-01

This manuscript describes the final year of medical education at Maastricht University as it has been operating since 2006. At the time external drivers for the development of a new structure of the final year were: the desire to prepare medical students for lifelong learning, the CanMEDs that were increasingly acknowledged to state the final attainment level of medical education and an increasing recognition of the importance of learning by participating actively and by taking more responsibility. Internal drivers were students' evaluations and our wish to improve instructional design and quality control. The main aim of this new final year is to better prepare students for the transition from the medical master programme to one of the postgraduate training programmes to become a medical specialist. The final year of the medical master programme consists of two 18-weeks participation electives, one in health care and one in research. Students have a higher level of autonomy and responsibility during this final year compared to the preceding medical clerkships to enhance the transition. Portfolios are the key element in examination of SCIP and HELP. Student evaluations of the final year show high scores on coaching and instructiveness. Despite some differences between departments overall scores are very high. Suggestions to improve include the availability of work places and time for education and coaching. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

A Model Program in Science, Mathematics, and Technology. Final Report TP87-9.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDowell, Ceasar; And Others

Over the past 5 years parents, industry leaders, and policy makers have called repeatedly for the improvement of mathematics and science education in urban schools and for measures to insure that all students are "technologically literate." Various efforts at the national, state, and local levels have emerged in response to these calls, with…

An Integrated Student Development Program. A Model for Small Colleges. Final Report to FIPSE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willats, Bruce

A 3-year project at Dominican College of San Rafael (California) supported by a grant from the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education (FIPSE), is summarized. The project developed comprehensive integrated student development plan with four perspectives: (skills, stages, tasks, and styles) designed as a cornerstone of all academic and…

The National Council on Crime and Delinquency NewGate Resource Center. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herron, Rex; Muir, John

The origin and development of Project NewGate are described from 1971-74. (The project presents a model program of higher education for incarcerated offenders, consisting of the in-prison phase, transitional phase, and release phase.) Specific project characteristics are discussed and include a 4-year academic program for prison inmates; an…

Developmental Trends in Self-Regulation among Low-Income Toddlers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raikes, H. Abigail; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Bradley, Robert H.; Raikes, Helen H.; Ayoub, Catherine C.

2007-01-01

The attainment of self-regulatory skills during the toddler years is an understudied issue, especially among low-income children. The present study used growth modeling to examine the change over time and the final status in children's abilities to self-regulate, in a sample of 2,441 low-income children aged 14 to 36 months. Positive growth in…

Student Achievement in New York City Middle Schools Affiliated with Achievement First and Uncommon Schools. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teh, Bing-ru; McCullough, Moira; Gill, Brian P.

2010-01-01

In recent years, some of the most ambitious charter school operators, with the support of philanthropic investors, have sought to increase the scale and scope of their work by creating charter management organizations (CMOs) that aim to replicate effective charter school models across multiple campuses. CMOs are nonprofit organizations with…

Calibration of the highway safety manual and development of new safety performance functions for rural multilane highways in Kansas : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

Rural roads account for 90.3% of the 140,476 total centerline miles of roadways in Kansas. In recent years, rural fatal crashes have accounted for about 66% of all fatal crashes. The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for a...

How Long is Short?: Principles and Practice in the Delivery of Work Experience in Geography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepherd, Ifan D. H.

1998-01-01

Describes the development and implementation of the "short and thin" model of work experience at the Middlesex University geography program. The work experience program operates during the student's final year and is both "short" (10 weeks) and "thin" (one day a week). Outline the advantages and drawbacks of this…

Using Explicit Teaching to Improve How Bioscience Students Write to the Lay Public

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moni, Roger W.; Hryciw, Deanne H.; Poronnik, Philip; Moni, Karen B.

2007-01-01

The media role model was recently developed to frame how science faculty members can teach their students to write more effectively to lay audiences (14). An Opinion Editorial (Op-Ed) was introduced as a novel assignment for final-year physiology and pharmacology undergraduates. This second phase of this study, reported here, demonstrated the…

Georgia Interactive Network--GaIN--for Medical Information. Final Grant Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rankin, Jocelyn A.

This report describes the development of the Georgia Interactive Network for Medical Information (GaIN), a project initially funded by a three-year (1983-1986) National Library of Medicine resource project grant. Designed to serve as a model network to transmit information via computer directly to health professionals, GaIN now operates through a…

Final-Year Projects as a Major Element in the IE Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vitner, G.; Rozenes, S.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a multi-perspective view of the final-year project of an industrial engineering and management (IEM) department. The final year project is a major element of a 4-year curriculum within any engineering discipline. Such a project gives the student an opportunity to use and implement methods, techniques and tools that he or she…

Modeling and simulation of flow field in giant magnetostrictive pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yapeng; Ren, Shiyong; Lu, Quanguo

2017-09-01

Recent years, there has been significant research in the design and analysis of giant magnetostrictive pump. In this paper, the flow field model of giant magnetostrictive pump was established and the relationship between pressure loss and working frequency of piston was studied by numerical simulation method. Then, the influence of different pump chamber height on pressure loss in giant magnetostrictive pump was studied by means of flow field simulation. Finally, the fluid pressure and velocity vector distribution in giant magnetostrictive pump chamber were simulated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doering, C.; Bier, M.; Christodoulou, K.

This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Polymers, composites, and synthetic modern materials are replacing traditional materials in many older scientific, engineering, commercial, and military applications. This project sought to focus on the new polymeric materials, deriving and analyzing models that predict their seemingly mysterious transport properties. It sought to identify the dominant physical mechanisms and the pertinent dimensionless parameters, produce viable theoretical models, and devise asymptotic and numerical methods for use in specific problems.

Lattice Boltzmann Methods to Address Fundamental Boiling and Two-Phase Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uddin, Rizwan

2012-01-01

This report presents the progress made during the fourth (no cost extension) year of this three-year grant aimed at the development of a consistent Lattice Boltzmann formulation for boiling and two-phase flows. During the first year, a consistent LBM formulation for the simulation of a two-phase water-steam system was developed. Results of initial model validation in a range of thermo-dynamic conditions typical for Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) were shown. Progress was made on several fronts during the second year. Most important of these included the simulation of the coalescence of two bubbles including the surface tension effects. Work during themore » third year focused on the development of a new lattice Boltzmann model, called the artificial interface lattice Boltzmann model (AILB model) for the 3 simulation of two-phase dynamics. The model is based on the principle of free energy minimization and invokes the Gibbs-Duhem equation in the formulation of non-ideal forcing function. This was reported in detail in the last progress report. Part of the efforts during the last (no-cost extension) year were focused on developing a parallel capability for the 2D as well as for the 3D codes developed in this project. This will be reported in the final report. Here we report the work carried out on testing the AILB model for conditions including the thermal effects. A simplified thermal LB model, based on the thermal energy distribution approach, was developed. The simplifications are made after neglecting the viscous heat dissipation and the work done by pressure in the original thermal energy distribution model. Details of the model are presented here, followed by a discussion of the boundary conditions, and then results for some two-phase thermal problems.« less

Simulations of Turbulent Flows with Strong Shocks and Density Variations: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanjiva Lele

2012-10-01

The target of this SciDAC Science Application was to develop a new capability based on high-order and high-resolution schemes to simulate shock-turbulence interactions and multi-material mixing in planar and spherical geometries, and to study Rayleigh-Taylor and Richtmyer-Meshkov turbulent mixing. These fundamental problems have direct application in high-speed engineering flows, such as inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsule implosions and scramjet combustion, and also in the natural occurrence of supernovae explosions. Another component of this project was the development of subgrid-scale (SGS) models for large-eddy simulations of flows involving shock-turbulence interaction and multi-material mixing, that were to be validated with the DNSmore » databases generated during the program. The numerical codes developed are designed for massively-parallel computer architectures, ensuring good scaling performance. Their algorithms were validated by means of a sequence of benchmark problems. The original multi-stage plan for this five-year project included the following milestones: 1) refinement of numerical algorithms for application to the shock-turbulence interaction problem and multi-material mixing (years 1-2); 2) direct numerical simulations (DNS) of canonical shock-turbulence interaction (years 2-3), targeted at improving our understanding of the physics behind the combined two phenomena and also at guiding the development of SGS models; 3) large-eddy simulations (LES) of shock-turbulence interaction (years 3-5), improving SGS models based on the DNS obtained in the previous phase; 4) DNS of planar/spherical RM multi-material mixing (years 3-5), also with the two-fold objective of gaining insight into the relevant physics of this instability and aiding in devising new modeling strategies for multi-material mixing; 5) LES of planar/spherical RM mixing (years 4-5), integrating the improved SGS and multi-material models developed in stages 3 and 5. This final report is outlined as follows. Section 2 shows an assessment of numerical algorithms that are best suited for the numerical simulation of compressible flows involving turbulence and shock phenomena. Sections 3 and 4 deal with the canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem, from the DNS and LES perspectives, respectively. Section 5 considers the shock-turbulence inter-action in spherical geometry, in particular, the interaction of a converging shock with isotropic turbulence as well as the problem of the blast wave. Section 6 describes the study of shock-accelerated mixing through planar and spherical Richtmyer-Meshkov mixing as well as the shock-curtain interaction problem In section 7 we acknowledge the different interactions between Stanford and other institutions participating in this SciDAC project, as well as several external collaborations made possible through it. Section 8 presents a list of publications and presentations that have been generated during the course of this SciDAC project. Finally, section 9 concludes this report with the list of personnel at Stanford University funded by this SciDAC project.« less

An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amira Azmi, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Salleh, Rohayu Mohd; Hamzah, Nur Shamsidah Amir

2018-04-01

Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

The Multi-Orientable Random Tensor Model, a Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanasa, Adrian

2016-06-01

After its introduction (initially within a group field theory framework) in [Tanasa A., J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 45 (2012), 165401, 19 pages, arXiv:1109.0694], the multi-orientable (MO) tensor model grew over the last years into a solid alternative of the celebrated colored (and colored-like) random tensor model. In this paper we review the most important results of the study of this MO model: the implementation of the 1/N expansion and of the large N limit (N being the size of the tensor), the combinatorial analysis of the various terms of this expansion and finally, the recent implementation of a double scaling limit.

A business model analysis of telecardiology service.

PubMed

Lin, Shu-Hsia; Liu, Jorn-Hon; Wei, Jen; Yin, Wei-Hsian; Chen, Hung-Hsin; Chiu, Wen-Ta

2010-12-01

Telecare has become an increasingly common medical service in recent years. However, new service must be close to the market and be market-driven to have a high likelihood of success. This article analyzes the business model of a telecardiology service managed by a general hospital. The methodology of the article is as follows: (1) initially it describes the elements of the service based on the ontology of the business model, (2) then it transfers these elements into the choices for business model dynamic loops and examines their validity, and (3) finally provides an empirical financial analysis of the service to assess the profit-making possibilities.

A survey on hair modeling: styling, simulation, and rendering.

PubMed

Ward, Kelly; Bertails, Florence; Kim, Tae-Yong; Marschner, Stephen R; Cani, Marie-Paule; Lin, Ming C

2007-01-01

Realistic hair modeling is a fundamental part of creating virtual humans in computer graphics. This paper surveys the state of the art in the major topics of hair modeling: hairstyling, hair simulation, and hair rendering. Because of the difficult, often unsolved problems that arise in all these areas, a broad diversity of approaches are used, each with strengths that make it appropriate for particular applications. We discuss each of these major topics in turn, presenting the unique challenges facing each area and describing solutions that have been presented over the years to handle these complex issues. Finally, we outline some of the remaining computational challenges in hair modeling.

[Burdened into the job -- final-year students' empathy and burnout].

PubMed

Koehl-Hackert, Nadja; Schultz, Jobst-Hendrik; Nikendei, Christoph; Möltner, Andreas; Gedrose, Benjamin; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Jünger, Jana

2012-01-01

Empathy is a central element in daily patient care. The burnout syndrome seems to be a potential factor influencing physicians' empathic behavior negatively. In Germany up to 20 % of practicing physicians experience burnout. So far, there have been no studies measuring empathy and the degree of burnout among final-year medical students in Germany. The aim of the current study was to investigate final-year students' self-reported empathy, burnout and the association of job satisfaction and occupational self-efficacy with regard to potential gender differences. 127 medical students at the end of their final year (82 f, 45 m; 26.8 years of age) were surveyed using the Jefferson Scale of Physician Empathy (JSPE), the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and items addressing job satisfaction and occupational self-efficacy. The mean JSPE score of all final-year students was 113.25 ± 10.21 (20=lowest possible empathy score, 140=highest possible empathy score). Based on the three dimensions of burnout, the students fell in the moderate burnout category in all subscales of the MBI. There was an association between a lower empathy score and a higher burnout score. Also, the MBI correlated negatively with final-year students' job satisfaction and occupational self-efficacy. Despite high self-rated empathy scores, the experience of burnout symptoms in medical students may begin as early as their final year of studies, where higher levels of burnout are associated with lower self-rated empathy scores. The number of final-year medical students affected by clinically significant burnout (up to 20 %) was just as high as among practicing physicians. Female students were found to be particularly affected. Given the rising numbers of female graduates, this shows that urgent action is required. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Population pharmacokinetic modelling of rupatadine solution in 6-11 year olds and optimisation of the experimental design in younger children.

PubMed

Santamaría, Eva; Estévez, Javier Alejandro; Riba, Jordi; Izquierdo, Iñaki; Valle, Marta

2017-01-01

To optimise a pharmacokinetic (PK) study design of rupatadine for 2-5 year olds by using a population PK model developed with data from a study in 6-11 year olds. The design optimisation was driven by the need to avoid children's discomfort in the study. PK data from 6-11 year olds with allergic rhinitis available from a previous study were used to construct a population PK model which we used in simulations to assess the dose to administer in a study in 2-5 year olds. In addition, an optimal design approach was used to determine the most appropriate number of sampling groups, sampling days, total samples and sampling times. A two-compartmental model with first-order absorption and elimination, with clearance dependent on weight adequately described the PK of rupatadine for 6-11 year olds. The dose selected for a trial in 2-5 year olds was 2.5 mg, as it provided a Cmax below the 3 ng/ml threshold. The optimal study design consisted of four groups of children (10 children each), a maximum sampling window of 2 hours in two clinic visits for drawing three samples on day 14 and one on day 28 coinciding with the final examination of the study. A PK study design was optimised in order to prioritise avoidance of discomfort for enrolled 2-5 year olds by taking only four blood samples from each child and minimising the length of hospital stays.

Study of emissions from light-duty vehicles in Denver. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-08-31

A sample of 300 light-duty vehicles normally operated in the Denver metropolitan area was tested for emissions and fuel economy. The vehicles were from the 1978 through 1982 model years and included both passenger cars and light-duty trucks. One purpose of the program was to gather information for calculations and projections of ambient air quality. Another purpose was to assemble data on current model year vehicles for use in the support of Inspection/Maintenance and other regulatory programs. The vehicles were tested for exhaust emissions utilizing the Federal Test Procedure, the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HFET), and four short mode tests.more » 125 vehicles from the 1980-82 model years received an evaporative emission test using the sealed housing evaporative determination (SHED) technique. Other actions were taken in relation to each vehicle tested. These included an engine and emission control system maladjustment/disablement and status inspection, driveability evaluations, and owner interviews to obtain vehicle maintenance and usage data.« less

A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

2012-09-01

Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

Social Media Training for Professional Identity Development in Undergraduate Nurses.

PubMed

Mather, Carey; Cummings, Elizabeth; Nichols, Linda

2016-01-01

The growth of social media use has led to tension affecting the perception of professionalism of nurses in healthcare environments. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore first and final year undergraduate student use of social media to understand how it was utilised by them during their course. Descriptive statistical analysis was undertaken to compare differences between first and final year student use. No difference indicated there was a lack of development in the use of social media, particularly concerning in relation to expanding their professional networks. There is a need for the curriculum to include opportunities to teach student nurses methods to ensure the appropriate and safe use of social media. Overt teaching and modelling of desired behaviour to guide and support the use of social media to positively promote professional identity formation, which is essential for work-readiness at graduation, is necessary.

An Ontology-Based Archive Information Model for the Planetary Science Community

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, J. Steven; Crichton, Daniel J.; Mattmann, Chris

2008-01-01

The Planetary Data System (PDS) information model is a mature but complex model that has been used to capture over 30 years of planetary science data for the PDS archive. As the de-facto information model for the planetary science data archive, it is being adopted by the International Planetary Data Alliance (IPDA) as their archive data standard. However, after seventeen years of evolutionary change the model needs refinement. First a formal specification is needed to explicitly capture the model in a commonly accepted data engineering notation. Second, the core and essential elements of the model need to be identified to help simplify the overall archive process. A team of PDS technical staff members have captured the PDS information model in an ontology modeling tool. Using the resulting knowledge-base, work continues to identify the core elements, identify problems and issues, and then test proposed modifications to the model. The final deliverables of this work will include specifications for the next generation PDS information model and the initial set of IPDA archive data standards. Having the information model captured in an ontology modeling tool also makes the model suitable for use by Semantic Web applications.

The model test of restoration project of the gravel beach of Chen Village fishing port

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D. X.; Gui, J. S.; Sun, J. W.

2016-08-01

Gravel beach is a case in coastal landform by wave action. It is more and more crucial for the environment of coastal engineering in recent years. However, it is poorly studied for it in China. And this paper which is based on the model test of Restoration Project of the Gravel Beach of Chen Village Fishing Port, uses two dimensional normal physical models, aiming at exploring the movement of gravel beach under wave action and verifying the stability of the gravel beach section. The test depends on different water levels (designed high water level, designed low water level, and extreme high water level) and return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years once). Finally, two distinct experimental sections are got under the changed conditions and the movement law of gravels is obtained.

Earth's external magnetic fields at low orbital altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klumpar, D. M.

1990-01-01

Under our Jun. 1987 proposal, Magnetic Signatures of Near-Earth Distributed Currents, we proposed to render operational a modeling procedure that had been previously developed to compute the magnetic effects of distributed currents flowing in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. After adaptation of the software to our computing environment we would apply the model to low altitude satellite orbits and would utilize the MAGSAT data suite to guide the analysis. During the first year, basic computer codes to run model systems of Birkeland and ionospheric currents and several graphical output routines were made operational on a VAX 780 in our research facility. Software performance was evaluated using an input matchstick ionospheric current array, field aligned currents were calculated and magnetic perturbations along hypothetical satellite orbits were calculated. The basic operation of the model was verified. Software routines to analyze and display MAGSAT satellite data in terms of deviations with respect to the earth's internal field were also made operational during the first year effort. The complete set of MAGSAT data to be used for evaluation of the models was received at the end of the first year. A detailed annual report in May 1989 described these first year activities completely. That first annual report is included by reference in this final report. This document summarizes our additional activities during the second year of effort and describes the modeling software, its operation, and includes as an attachment the deliverable computer software specified under the contract.

Systems Integration, Analysis and Modeling Support to the HEDS Technology/Commercialization Initiative (HTCI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feingold, Harvey; ONeil, Dan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In response to a recommendation from OMB, NASA's Fiscal Year 2001 budget included a new program within the HEDS (Human Exploration and Development of Space) Enterprise called HEDS Technology/ Commercialization Initiative (HTCI). HTCI had three overarching goals: to support REDS analysis and planning for safe, affordable and effective future programs and projects that advance human exploration, scientific discovery, and the commercial development of space; to pursue research, development, and validation of breakthrough technologies and highly innovative systems concepts; and to advance die creation of strong partnerships within NASA, with U.S. industry and universities, and internationally. As part of its contracted effort, SAIC was to write a report contribution, describing die results of its task activities, to a final HTCI report prepared by MSFC. Unfortunately, government cancellation of the HTCI program in the summer of 2001 curtailed all efforts on the program including die Final HTCI report. In the absence of that report, SAIC has issued this final report in an attempt to document some of the technical material it produced. The report contains SAIC presentations for both HTCI workshops; a set of roadmap charts for the Systems Analysis, Integration and Modeling; and charts showing the evolution of the current TITAN modeling architecture.

Predicting long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Karim, Md N; Reid, Christopher M; Huq, Molla; Brilleman, Samuel L; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Billah, Baki

2018-02-01

To develop a model for predicting long-term survival following coronary artery bypass graft surgery. This study included 46 573 patients from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZCTS) registry, who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery between 2001 and 2014. Data were randomly split into development (23 282) and validation (23 291) samples. Cox regression models were fitted separately, using the important preoperative variables, for 4 'time intervals' (31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years), with optimal predictors selected using the bootstrap bagging technique. Model performance was assessed both in validation data and in combined data (development and validation samples). Coefficients of all 4 final models were estimated on the combined data adjusting for hospital-level clustering. The Kaplan-Meier mortality rates estimated in the sample were 1.7% at 90 days, 2.8% at 1 year, 4.4% at 2 years and 6.1% at 3 years. Age, peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, reduced ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, arrhythmia, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, cerebrovascular disease, hypertension, congestive heart failure, steroid use and smoking were included in all 4 models. However, their magnitude of effect varied across the time intervals. Harrell's C-statistics was 0.83, 0.78, 0.75 and 0.74 for 31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years models, respectively. Models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in validation data. Models were developed for predicting long-term survival at 4 time intervals after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. These models can be used in conjunction with the existing 30-day mortality prediction model. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Micromechanisms of Fatigue and Fracture in Hybrid Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-15

titanium aluminides . Unclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Report No. UCB/R/90/A1065 Final Report to U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific...PARTICULATE-REINFORCED Ti-6AI-4V COMPOSITES ............... 52 5. TITANIUM ALUMINIDE INTERMETALLICS ............................................ 59 6...preliminary examination of the microstructure of titanium aluminides . V 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, the need for lighter materials with high

A Flexible Pre-Major Model for British Columbia Departments of Anthropology. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinbest, Jerry

2007-01-01

The Sociology/Anthropology Articulation Committee has engaged in a project resulting in tandem reports for each of the respective disciplines, which identify flexible pre-majors for both Sociology and Anthropology and summarize the specific types of courses that must be taken by students to allow them to transfer into third year of a major. A…

40 CFR 85.1503 - General requirements for importation of nonconforming vehicles and engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... importation into the United States must be imported by an ICI who is a current holder of a valid certificate... (e.g., the current model year), an ICI may finally admit no more than the following numbers of... by the parent company and all its subsidiaries. (e) An ICI may exceed the limits outlined paragraphs...

40 CFR 85.1503 - General requirements for importation of nonconforming vehicles and engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... importation into the United States must be imported by an ICI who is a current holder of a valid certificate... (e.g., the current model year), an ICI may finally admit no more than the following numbers of... by the parent company and all its subsidiaries. (e) An ICI may exceed the limits outlined paragraphs...

40 CFR 85.1503 - General requirements for importation of nonconforming vehicles and engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... importation into the United States must be imported by an ICI who is a current holder of a valid certificate... (e.g., the current model year), an ICI may finally admit no more than the following numbers of... by the parent company and all its subsidiaries. (e) An ICI may exceed the limits outlined paragraphs...

40 CFR 85.1503 - General requirements for importation of nonconforming vehicles and engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... importation into the United States must be imported by an ICI who is a current holder of a valid certificate... (e.g., the current model year), an ICI may finally admit no more than the following numbers of... by the parent company and all its subsidiaries. (e) An ICI may exceed the limits outlined paragraphs...

Is It the Teaching or the Discipline? Influences of Disciplinary Epistemology and Pedagogy on Students Adapting Study Behaviour and Epistemological Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kember, David; Hong, Celina; Yau, Vickie; Ho, Amaly

2014-01-01

This study examined the pace and degree of adaptation of study behaviour and personal epistemological beliefs between school and university through interviews with 110 final-year university students. The study took place in Hong Kong, where the highly competitive school system encourages remembering modelling answers for the public examinations;…

Co-Operatives and Education in the Basque Country: The "Ikastolas" in the Final Years of Franco's Dictatorship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delgado, Ander

2014-01-01

This article analyses the creation of the schools called "ikastolas" throughout the Basque Country from the 1960s onwards. The name "ikastola" refers to a unique school model whose major characteristic is to teach the majority of subjects in the Basque language, or "euskera." It outlines the reasons why some of these…

Learned Helplessness in Children with Visual Handicaps: A Pilot Study of Expectations, Persistence, and Attributions. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Head, Dan; And Others

This report describes the outcomes of a one-year federally funded pilot study of 14 students with low vision or blindness (grades 3-6) and 13 teachers. The study was designed to generate practical classroom assessment procedures for measuring "learned helplessness" and recommendations for a conceptual intervention model for use in the classroom.…

75 FR 25323 - Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-07

...EPA and NHTSA are issuing this joint Final Rule to establish a National Program consisting of new standards for light-duty vehicles that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy. This joint Final Rule is consistent with the National Fuel Efficiency Policy announced by President Obama on May 19, 2009, responding to the country's critical need to address global climate change and to reduce oil consumption. EPA is finalizing greenhouse gas emissions standards under the Clean Air Act, and NHTSA is finalizing Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended. These standards apply to passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles, covering model years 2012 through 2016, and represent a harmonized and consistent National Program. Under the National Program, automobile manufacturers will be able to build a single light-duty national fleet that satisfies all requirements under both programs while ensuring that consumers still have a full range of vehicle choices. NHTSA's final rule also constitutes the agency's Record of Decision for purposes of its National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis.

Residents' perspectives on the final year of medical school

PubMed Central

Obrien, Bridget; Niehaus, Brian; Teherani, Arianne; Young, John Q.

2012-01-01

Objectives To characterize junior residents’ perspectives on the purpose, value, and potential improvement of the final year of medical school. Methods Eighteen interviews were conducted with junior residents who graduated from nine different medical schools and who were in internal medicine, surgery, and psychiatry programs at one institution in the United States. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed inductively for themes. Results Participants’ descriptions of the purpose of their recently completed final year of medical school contained three primary themes: residency-related purposes, interest- or need-based purposes, and transitional purposes. Participants commented on the most valued aspects of the final year. Themes included opportunities to: prepare for residency; assume a higher level of responsibility in patient care; pursue experiences of interest that added breadth of knowledge, skills and perspective; develop and/or clarify career plans; and enjoy a period of respite. Suggestions for improvement included enhancing the learning value of clinical electives, augmenting specific curricular content, and making the final year more purposeful and better aligned with career goals. Conclusions The final year of medical school is a critical part of medical education for most learners, but careful attention is needed to ensure that the year is developmentally robust. Medical educators can facilitate this by creating structures to help students define personal and professional goals, identify opportunities to work toward these goals, and monitor progress so that the value of the final year is optimized and not exclusively focused on residency preparation. PMID:28029642

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of Disordered Bladed-Disk Assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGee, Oliver G., III

1997-01-01

In a effort to address current needs for efficient, air propulsion systems, we have developed some new analytical predictive tools for understanding and alleviating aircraft engine instabilities which have led to accelerated high cycle fatigue and catastrophic failures of these machines during flight. A frequent cause of failure in Jets engines is excessive resonant vibrations and stall flutter instabilities. The likelihood of these phenomena is reduced when designers employ the analytical models we have developed. These prediction models will ultimately increase the nation's competitiveness in producing high performance Jets engines with enhanced operability, energy economy, and safety. The objectives of our current threads of research in the final year are directed along two lines. First, we want to improve the current state of blade stress and aeromechanical reduced-ordered modeling of high bypass engine fans, Specifically, a new reduced-order iterative redesign tool for passively controlling the mechanical authority of shroudless, wide chord, laminated composite transonic bypass engine fans has been developed. Second, we aim to advance current understanding of aeromechanical feedback control of dynamic flow instabilities in axial flow compressors. A systematic theoretical evaluation of several approaches to aeromechanical feedback control of rotating stall in axial compressors has been conducted. Attached are abstracts of two .papers under preparation for the 1998 ASME Turbo Expo in Stockholm, Sweden sponsored under Grant No. NAG3-1571. Our goals during the final year under Grant No. NAG3-1571 is to enhance NASA's capabilities of forced response of turbomachines (such as NASA FREPS). We with continue our development of the reduced-ordered, three-dimensional component synthesis models for aeromechanical evaluation of integrated bladeddisk assemblies (i.e., the disk, non-identical bladeing etc.). We will complete our development of component systems design optimization strategies for specified vibratory stresses and increased fatigue life prediction of assembly components, and for specified frequency margins on the Campbell diagrams of turbomachines. Finally, we will integrate the developed codes with NASA's turbomachinery aeromechanics prediction capability (such as NASA FREPS).

Modeling effects of hydrological changes on the carbon and nitrogen balance of oak in floodplains.

PubMed

Pietsch, Stephan A; Hasenauer, Hubert; Kucera, Jiŕi; Cermák, Jan

2003-08-01

We extended the applicability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to floodplain ecosystems to study effects of hydrological changes on Quercus robur L. stands. The extended model assesses floodplain peculiarities, i.e., seasonal flooding and water infiltration from the groundwater table. Our interest was the tradeoff between (a). maintaining regional applicability with respect to available model input information, (b). incorporating the necessary mechanistic detail and (c). keeping the computational effort at an acceptable level. An evaluation based on observed transpiration, timber volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen content showed that the extended model produced unbiased results. We also investigated the impact of hydrological changes on our oak stands as a result of the completion of an artificial canal network in 1971, which has stopped regular springtime flooding. A comparison of the 11 years before versus the 11 years after 1971 demonstrated that the hydrological changes affected mainly the annual variation across years in leaf area index (LAI) and soil carbon and nitrogen sequestration, leading to stagnation of carbon and nitrogen stocks, but to an increase in the variance across years. However, carbon sequestration to timber was unaffected and exhibited no significant change in cross-year variation. Finally, we investigated how drawdown of the water table, a general problem in the region, affects modeled ecosystem behavior. We found a further amplification of cross-year LAI fluctuations, but the variance in soil carbon and nitrogen stocks decreased. Volume increment was unaffected, suggesting a stabilization of the ecosystem two decades after implementation of water management measures.

Recent THEMIS and Coordinated GBO Measurements of Substorm Expansion Onset: Do We Finally Have an Answer?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kepko, L.

2011-01-01

For nearly 30 years an often-times heated debate has engaged the substorm community: Do substorms begin with the formation of a new reconnection site in the midtail plasma sheet (the Near-Earth Neutral Line model) or do they begin near the transition region between stretched tail and dipolar field lines (the Current Disruption model). The THEMIS mission, with a coordinated suite of five in-situ spacecraft and ground observatories, has greatly extended our understanding of how substorms initiate and evolve. But have the new data resolved the fundamental question? In this talk I review the last few year's of sub storm research, with an emphasis of how the THEMIS data have revolutionized our understanding.

The use of psychosocial assessment following the Haiti earthquake in the development of the three-year emotional psycho-medical mental health and psychosocial support (EP-MMHPS) plan.

PubMed

Jordan, Karin

2010-01-01

This article provides information about the 2010 Haiti earthquake. An assessment model used by a crisis counselor responding to the earthquake is presented, focusing on the importance of gathering pre-deployment assessment and in-country assessment. Examples of the information gathered through the in-country assessment model from children, adolescents, and adults are presented. A brief overview of Haiti's three-year Emergency Psycho-Medical Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (EP-MMHPS) is provided. Finally, how the psychosocial manual developed after assessing 200 Haitian survivors through in-country assessment, and information gathered through pre-deployment assessment became part of the EP-MMHPS is offered.

Prospective Tests of Southern California Earthquake Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Helmstetter, A.; Wiemer, S.; Field, N.

2004-12-01

We are testing earthquake forecast models prospectively using likelihood ratios. Several investigators have developed such models as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's project called Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM). Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. Here we describe the testing procedure and present preliminary results. Forecasts are expressed as the yearly rate of earthquakes within pre-specified bins of longitude, latitude, magnitude, and focal mechanism parameters. We test models against each other in pairs, which requires that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. For this reason we specify a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to guide forecasters in using common descriptions. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Contributors will be requested to submit forecasts in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.1 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, are also archived and used in the tests. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.1 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. Tests are based on the log likelihood scores derived from the probability that future earthquakes would occur where they do if a given forecast were true [Kagan and Jackson, J. Geophys. Res.,100, 3,943-3,959, 1995]. For each pair of forecasts, we compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability that the second would be wrongly rejected in favor of the first. Computing alpha and beta requires knowing the theoretical distribution of likelihood scores under each hypothesis, which we estimate by simulations. In this scheme, each forecast is given equal status; there is no "null hypothesis" which would be accepted by default. Forecasts and test results will be archived and posted on the RELM web site. Major problems under discussion include how to treat aftershocks, which clearly violate the variable-rate Poissonian hypotheses that we employ, and how to deal with the temporal variations in catalog completeness that follow large earthquakes.

A Validated Clinical Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer in Smokers of All Ages and Exposure Types: A HUNT Study.

PubMed

Markaki, Maria; Tsamardinos, Ioannis; Langhammer, Arnulf; Lagani, Vincenzo; Hveem, Kristian; Røe, Oluf Dimitri

2018-05-01

Lung cancer causes >1·6 million deaths annually, with early diagnosis being paramount to effective treatment. Here we present a validated risk assessment model for lung cancer screening. The prospective HUNT2 population study in Norway examined 65,237 people aged >20years in 1995-97. After a median of 15·2years, 583 lung cancer cases had been diagnosed; 552 (94·7%) ever-smokers and 31 (5·3%) never-smokers. We performed multivariable analyses of 36 candidate risk predictors, using multiple imputation of missing data and backwards feature selection with Cox regression. The resulting model was validated in an independent Norwegian prospective dataset of 45,341 ever-smokers, in which 675 lung cancers had been diagnosed after a median follow-up of 11·6years. Our final HUNT Lung Cancer Model included age, pack-years, smoking intensity, years since smoking cessation, body mass index, daily cough, and hours of daily indoors exposure to smoke. External validation showed a 0·879 concordance index (95% CI [0·866-0·891]) with an area under the curve of 0·87 (95% CI [0·85-0·89]) within 6years. Only 22% of ever-smokers would need screening to identify 81·85% of all lung cancers within 6years. Our model of seven variables is simple, accurate, and useful for screening selection. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The EGM2008 Global Gravitational Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlis, N. K.; Holmes, S. A.; Kenyon, S. C.; Factor, J. K.

2008-12-01

The development of a new Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) to degree 2160 has been completed. This model, designated EGM2008, is the product of the final re-iteration of our modelling and estimation approach. Our multi-year effort has produced several Preliminary Gravitational Models (PGM) of increasingly improved performance. One of these models (PGM2007A) was provided for evaluation to an independent Evaluation Working Group, sponsored by the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). In an effort to address certain shortcomings of PGM2007A, we have considered the feedback that we received from this Working Group. As part of this effort, EGM2008 incorporates an improved version of our 5'x5' global gravity anomaly database and has benefited from the latest GRACE based satellite-only solutions (e.g., ITG- GRACE03S). EGM2008 incorporates an improved ocean-wide set of altimetry-derived gravity anomalies that were estimated using PGM2007B (a variant of PGM2007A) and its associated Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) model as reference models in a "Remove-Compute-Restore" fashion. For the Least Squares Collocation estimation of our final global 5'x5' area-mean gravity anomaly database, we have used consistently PGM2007B as our reference model to degree 2160. We have developed and used a formulation that predicts area-mean gravity anomalies that are effectively band-limited to degree 2160, thereby minimizing aliasing effects during the harmonic analysis process. We have also placed special emphasis on the refinement and "calibration" of the error estimates that accompany our final combination solution EGM2008. We present the main aspects of the model's development and evaluation. This evaluation was accomplished primarily through the comparison of various model derived quantities with independent data and models (e.g., geoid undulations derived from GPS positioning and spirit levelling, astronomical deflections of the vertical, etc.). We will also present comparisons of our model-implied Dynamic Ocean Topography with other contemporary estimates (e.g., from ECCO).

Idle minds are the devil's tools? Coping, depressed mood and divergent thinking in older adults.

PubMed

Mélendez, Juan Carlos; Alfonso-Benlliure, Vicente; Mayordomo, Teresa

2017-10-20

The main aim was to test a causal relations model of the problem-focused and emotion-focused coping styles, depressed mood, and divergent thinking (DT) in older adults. It was hypothesized that both forms of coping would have a significant effect on predicting depressed mood, and that problem-focused coping and depressed mood would have a significant effect on DT. Participants were 135 subjects with ages ranging between 55 and 84 years old, who took part in a personal interview and filled out several questionnaires. The statistical analysis included structural equations models (SEM). The initial model led to a final model endorsed by the goodness of fit, composite reliability, and discriminant validity indexes. This model confirms a direct relationship between the two types of coping strategies and depressed mood (with the opposite sign), but not between rational coping and DT. Finally, depressed mood was also confirmed as a mediator variable between coping and DT. The type of coping is a clear predictor of mood in older adults. Advanced age decline is not necessarily translated into inefficacy in everyday problem solving especially in those who, through proble-focused coping, avoid depressed moods and maintain good levels of DT.

Oral health of 65-year olds in Sweden and Norway: a global question and ICF, the latest conceptual model from WHO.

PubMed

Ekbäck, Gunnar; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug; Klock, Kristin; Ordell, Sven; Unell, Lennart

2012-07-01

The aims of this study were to identify explanatory factors of satisfaction with oral health among Norwegian and Swedish 65 year olds in terms of items from four different domains of ICF and to compare the strengths of the various ICF domains in explaining satisfaction with oral health. Further it was to assess whether the explanatory factors of ICF domains vary between Norway and Sweden. In 2007, standardized questionnaires were mailed to all the residents in certain counties of Sweden and Norway who were born in 1942. Response rates were 73.1% (n = 6078) in Sweden and 56.0% (n = 4062) in Norway. In total, 33 questions based on four different ICF domains were chosen to explain satisfaction with oral health. Logistic regression showed that four different ICF domains in terms of body function, body structure, activity/participation and environmental factors explained, respectively, 53%, 31%, 12% and 34% of the explanatory variance in the satisfaction with oral health. In the final analysis, only nine items were statistically significant (p < 0.05). This study indicates that ICF as a conceptual model could cover a broad spectrum of factors embedded in OHRQoL measured by a global question in Sweden and Norway. Nine items, representing four ICF domains, were important in the final model for explaining satisfaction with oral health.

Testing Connections between Campanian Ignimbrite Volcanism, Climate, and the Final Decline of the Neanderthals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, B. A.; Manga, M.; Neely, R. R., III

2014-12-01

The eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite 40,000 years ago coincided approximately with the final decline of the Neanderthals and a technological and cultural transition from the Middle to Upper Paleolithic. Two end-member hypotheses have been advanced to explain Neanderthal decline: competition with anatomically modern humans and failure to adapt in the face of environmental stresses. The eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been cited as a potentially major cause of such environmental stress. In this work, we draw on published datasets including ice core records, maps and simulations of ash dispersal, and petrologic measurements to constrain the characteristics of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. To investigate the climatic effects of the eruption, we use a three-dimensional sectional aerosol model to simulate the global aerosol cloud after 25 Tg and 100 Tg sulfur release scenarios. We couple these aerosol properties to a comprehensive earth system model under last glacial conditions. We find that summer temperatures were colder for several years after the eruption, with some simulations predicting temperature decreases of up to 10 degrees in Eastern Europe and Asia. While this cold interval may have impacted hominid communities in Siberia, the overall distribution of the cooling we observe in our model is inconsistent with catastrophic collapse of Neanderthal populations in Europe. Nonetheless, the volcanic cooling could have influenced daily life for a generation of Neanderthals and anatomically modern humans.

The Requirement Generation for the SKYLON Launch System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hempsell, M.

SKYLON is a reusable single stage to orbit spaceplane intended to lower the cost of reaching space. The project has a 25 year history stretching back to the British Aerospace HOTOL study and over the many configuration iterations the performance has been established using feasibility designs, with market studies being used to establish that the resulting system has utility. In preparation for the final concept study of the D1 configuration the market and other stakeholder's requirements have been prepared as an input rather than an output to the design process. These requirements have been established from both an analysis of the existing market - as a model for the entry into service requirements - and future studies of advanced applications - as a model for the longer term requirements. The final conclusions have been incorporated into a preliminary User Manual which is the basis of a requirements' validation exercise.

The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikic, Zoran

2000-01-01

This report covers technical progress during the third year of the NASA Space Physics Theory contract "The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona," between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period June 16, 1998 to August 15, 1999. This is also the final report for this contract. Under this contract SAIC, the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), have conducted research into theoretical modeling of active regions, the solar corona, and the inner heliosphere, using the MHD model. During the three-year duration of this contract we have published 49 articles in the scientific literature. These publications are listed in Section 3 of this report. In the Appendix we have attached reprints of selected articles. We summarize our progress during the third year of the contract. Full descriptions of our work can be found in the cited publications, a few of which are attached to this report.

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

PubMed

Iakova, Maria; Ballabeni, Pierluigi; Erhart, Peter; Seichert, Nikola; Luthi, François; Dériaz, Olivier

2012-12-01

This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation.

Career Plans of Final-Year South African Student Teachers: Migration to "Greener Pastures"?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Villiers, J. J. R.

2017-01-01

Teacher loss due to migration is a global phenomenon that impacts both developed and developing nations the world over. The aim of this study was to find out about the career plans of final-year South African student teachers. A group of final-year Bachelor of Education student teachers from a South African university responded to a questionnaire…

Cost and Schedule Analytical Techniques Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This Final Report summarizes the activities performed by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) under contract NAS 8-40431 "Cost and Schedule Analytical Techniques Development Contract" (CSATD) during Option Year 3 (December 1, 1997 through November 30, 1998). This Final Report is in compliance with Paragraph 5 of Section F of the contract. This CSATD contract provides technical products and deliverables in the form of parametric models, databases, methodologies, studies, and analyses to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Engineering Cost Office (PP03) and the Program Plans and Requirements Office (PP02) and other user organizations. Detailed Monthly Reports were submitted to MSFC in accordance with the contract's Statement of Work, Section IV "Reporting and Documentation". These reports spelled out each month's specific work performed, deliverables submitted, major meetings conducted, and other pertinent information. Therefore, this Final Report will summarize these activities at a higher level. During this contract Option Year, SAIC expended 25,745 hours in the performance of tasks called out in the Statement of Work. This represents approximately 14 full-time EPs. Included are the Huntsville-based team, plus SAIC specialists in San Diego, Ames Research Center, Tampa, and Colorado Springs performing specific tasks for which they are uniquely qualified.

Contract for Manpower and Personnel Research and Studies (COMPRS) for the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences (ARI) - Final Annual Report: Year Five

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-07-01

Communications Objectives Measurement System (ACOMS)." The utility of the Fishbein and Ajzen theories of reasoned action within the context of military...conceptual model that applied the Fishbein and Ajzen concepts to enlistment intentions and behaviors, through an exploratory analysis of the variables...first-term Army enlisted attrition. In support of this long-term effort, ASA M &RA sponsored Phase I of a research program modeled after ARI’s broad

Health technology assessment in Switzerland: a descriptive analysis of “Coverage with Evidence Development” decisions from 1996 to 2013

PubMed Central

Brügger, Urs; Horisberger, Bruno; Ruckstuhl, Alexander; Plessow, Rafael; Eichler, Klaus; Gratwohl, Alois

2015-01-01

Objectives To identify factors associated with the decisions of the Federal Department of Home Affairs concerning coverage with evidence development (CED) for contested novel medical technologies in Switzerland. Design Quantitative, retrospective, descriptive analysis of publicly available material and prospective, structured, qualitative interviews with key stakeholders. Setting All 152 controversial medical services decided on by the Federal Commission on Health Insurance Benefits within the framework of the new federal law on health insurance in Switzerland from 1997 to 2013, with focus on 33 technologies assigned initially to CED and 33 to evidence development without coverage. Main outcome measures Factors associated with numbers and type of contested services assigned to CED per year, the duration and final outcome of the evaluations and perceptions of key stakeholders. Results The rate of CED decisions (82 total; median 1.5/year; range 0–9/year), the time to final decision (4.5 years median; 0.75 to +11 years) and the probability of a final ‘yes’ varied over time. In logistic regression models, the change of office of the commission provided the best explanation for the observed outcomes. Good intentions but absence of scientific criteria for decisions were reported as major comments by the stakeholders. Conclusions The introduction of CED enabled access to some promising technologies early in their life cycle, and might have triggered establishment of registries and research. Impact on patients’ outcome and costs remain unknown. The primary association of institutional changes with measured end points illustrates the need for evaluation of the current health technology assessment (HTA) system. PMID:25818273

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Just, Allan C; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-10-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM 2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM 2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R 2 =0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R 2 =0.87, R 2 =0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

PubMed Central

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Background The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. Methods We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003–2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Results Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Conclusion Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region. PMID:28966552

Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

A Conceptual Model for Episodes of Acute, Unscheduled Care.

PubMed

Pines, Jesse M; Lotrecchiano, Gaetano R; Zocchi, Mark S; Lazar, Danielle; Leedekerken, Jacob B; Margolis, Gregg S; Carr, Brendan G

2016-10-01

We engaged in a 1-year process to develop a conceptual model representing an episode of acute, unscheduled care. Acute, unscheduled care includes acute illnesses (eg, nausea and vomiting), injuries, or exacerbations of chronic conditions (eg, worsening dyspnea in congestive heart failure) and is delivered in emergency departments, urgent care centers, and physicians' offices, as well as through telemedicine. We began with a literature search to define an acute episode of care and to identify existing conceptual models used in health care. In accordance with this information, we then drafted a preliminary conceptual model and collected stakeholder feedback, using online focus groups and concept mapping. Two technical expert panels reviewed the draft model, examined the stakeholder feedback, and discussed ways the model could be improved. After integrating the experts' comments, we solicited public comment on the model and made final revisions. The final conceptual model includes social and individual determinants of health that influence the incidence of acute illness and injury, factors that affect care-seeking decisions, specific delivery settings where acute care is provided, and outcomes and costs associated with the acute care system. We end with recommendations for how researchers, policymakers, payers, patients, and providers can use the model to identify and prioritize ways to improve acute care delivery. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kansas environmental and resource study: A Great Plains model. Extraction of agricultural statistics from ERTS-1 data of Kansas. [wheat inventory and agriculture land use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morain, S. A. (Principal Investigator); Williams, D. L.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Wheat area, yield, and production statistics as derived from satellite image analysis, combined with a weather model, are presented for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The data (representing the 1972-73 crop year) are compared for accuracy against both the USDA August estimate and its final (official) tabulation. The area estimates from imagery for both dryland and irrigated winter wheat were within 5% of the official figures for the same area, and predated them by almost one year. Yield on dryland wheat was estimated by the Thompson weather model to within 0.1% of the observed yield. A combined irrigated and dryland wheat production estimate for the ten county area was completed in July, 1973 and was within 1% of the production reported by USDA in February, 1974.

Motivation towards extracurricular activities and motivation at school: A test of the generalization effect hypothesis.

PubMed

Denault, Anne-Sophie; Guay, Frédéric

2017-01-01

Participation in extracurricular activities is a promising avenue for enhancing students' school motivation. Using self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000), the goal of this study was to test a serial multiple mediator model. In this model, students' perceptions of autonomy support from their extracurricular activity leader predicted their activity-based intrinsic and identified regulations. In turn, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations during the same school year. Finally, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations one year later. A total of 276 youths (54% girls) from disadvantaged neighborhoods were surveyed over two waves of data collection. The proposed mediation model was supported for both types of regulation. These results highlight the generalization effects of motivation from the extracurricular activity context to the school context. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the twelfth generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thebault, Erwan; Finlay, Christopher; The IGRF Working Group

2015-04-01

The IGRF is an internationally-agreed reference model of the Earth's magnetic field produced under the auspices of the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. The IGRF-12 is the latest update of this well-known model which is used each year by many thousands of users for both industrial and scientific purposes. In October 2014, ten institutions worldwide have made contributions to the IGRF. These models were evaluated and the twelfth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was adopted in December 2014. In this presentation, we will report on the IGRF activities, briefly describe the candidate models, summarize the evaluation of models performed by different independent teams, show how the IGRF-12 models were calculated and finally discuss some of the main magnetic features of this new model.

Parenting quality: Confirmation of a higher-order latent construct with mothers of Head Start children

PubMed Central

Hubbs-Tait, Laura; Page, Melanie C.; Huey, Erron L.; Starost, Huei-Juang; Culp, Anne McDonald; Culp, Rex E.; Harper, M. Elizabeth

2009-01-01

We proposed a higher order latent construct of parenting young children, parenting quality. This higher-order latent construct comprises five component constructs: demographic protection, psychological distress, psychosocial maturity, moral and cognitive reflectivity, and parenting attitudes and beliefs. We evaluated this model with data provided by 199 mothers of 4-year-old children enrolled in Head Start. The model was confirmed with only one adjustment suggested by modification indices. Final RMSEA was .05, CFI .96, and NNFI .94, indicating good model fit. Results were interpreted as emphasizing the interdependence of psychological and environmental demands on parenting. Implications of the model for teachers, early interventionists, and public policy are discussed. PMID:19629192

Development of a Model for the Night Side Magnetopause using Global Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raeder, Joachim

1998-01-01

During the final year of this investigation we have finished several event studies that we considered necessary for the development of a tail magnetopause model and for the calibration of our simulation code. We have not reached the ultimate goal of the project, i.e., the development of an analytical tail magnetopause model. In the course of the investigation we have learned that such a model would be much more complex than we had anticipated. However, the investigations that we conducted towards this goal have led to significant results and discoveries that are of considerable value for understanding the tail magnetopause. These are summarized in the following sections.

[Tuscan Chronic Care Model: a preliminary analysis].

PubMed

Barbato, Angelo; Meggiolaro, Angela; Rossi, Luigi; Fioravanti, C; Palermita, F; La Torre, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

the aim of this study is to present a preliminary analysis of efficacy and effectiveness of a model of chronically ill care (Chronic Care Model, CCM). the analysis took into account 106 territorial modules, 1016 General Practitioners and 1,228,595 patients. The diagnostic and therapeutic pathways activated (PDTA), involved four chronic conditions, selected according to the prevalence and incidence, in Tuscany Region: Diabetes Mellitus (DM), Heart Failure (SC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and stroke. Six epidemiological indicators of process and output were selected, in order to measure the model of care performed, before and after its application: adherence to specific follow-up for each pathology (use of clinical and laboratory indicators), annual average of expenditure per/capita/euro for diagnostic tests, in laboratory and instrumental, average expenditure per/capita/year for specialist visits; hospitalization rate for diseases related to the main pathology, hospitalization rate for long-term complications and rate of access to the emergency department (ED). Data were collected through the database; the differences before and after the intervention and between exposed and unexposed, were analyzed by method "Before-After (Controlled and Uncontrolled) Studies". The impact of the intervention was calculated as DD (difference of the differences). DM management showed an increased adhesion to follow-up (DD: +8.1%), and the use of laboratory diagnostics (DD: +4,9 €/year/pc), less hospitalization for long-term complications and for endocrine related diseases (DD respectively: 5.8/1000 and DD: +1.2/1000), finally a smaller increase of access to PS (DD: -1.6/1000), despite a slight increase of specialistic visits (DD: +0,38 €/year/pc). The management of SC initially showed a rising adherence to follow-up (DD: +2.3%), a decrease of specialist visits (DD:E 1.03 €/year/pc), hospitalization and access to PS for exacerbations (DD: -4.4/1000 and DD: -6.1/100, respectively), compared with a slight increase of diagnostic tests (DD: +2.10 €/year/pc). Stroke showed the following outcomes: increased consumption of instrumental diagnostics and imaging (DD: +1.65 €/year/pc) and growing hospitalizations for related conditions (DD 6.1/1,000). The care of patients with COPD, finally, has produced an increase in overall expenditure on medicines (DD: +39.71/year/pc) associated with the decrease of hospitalization for related conditions (DD: -2.7/1,000). the Tuscany CCM has proven a promising model of integrated management and taking care for chronic patients, can have a positive impact on the quality of life and on the total health expenditure. Additional monitoring studies are desirable in perspective of expanding the model on all over the national territory.

Project for Minorities and Women in Research. Final Report of a Model to Increase Participation of Minorities and Women in Educational Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Escobedo, Theresa H.

A 3-year project was established at the University of Texas at Austin to enhance the educational research skills of minorities and women. The project emphasized four areas: (1) support of participants' research efforts through financial aid for research activities, training seminars, opportunities to engage in research projects, access to support…

Karhunen-Loeve Analysis of SCIGN GPS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rundle, John B.; Tiampo, Kristy; Gross, Susanna

2004-01-01

During the final year of this project, we made substantial progress on the proposed work. Specifically, we have continued the horizontal and vertical Karhunen-Loeve (KL) analysis of SCIGN data and implemented the study of a number of particular modes. In particular, we studied the spatial and temporal interactions of these modes in an effort to better understand and model the source of each signal.

Gearsketch: An Adaptive Drawing-Based Learning Environment for the Gears Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leenaars, Frank A.; Joolingen, Wouter R.; Gijlers, Hannie; Bollen, Lars

2014-01-01

GearSketch is a learning environment for the gears domain, aimed at students in the final years of primary school. It is designed for use with a touchscreen device and is based on ideas from drawing-based learning and research on cognitive tutors. At the heart of GearSketch is a domain model that is used to transform learners' strokes into…

An Autonomous Orbit Determination System for Earth Satellites

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

Master’s thesis centered around satellite clusters (43). Using a simplistic model, Ward’s research was a proof-of-concept study into a satellite’s...almost three years now, I have worked on this research and finally, at long last, the finished product is ready for publication. To produce this, I had to...8 III. Research Overview ............ ..................... .. 3-1 Estimator ................. ........................ .. 3-1 Sensor Configuration

Research Results and Final Report for the Dispute Management in the Schools Project. PCR Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Araki, Charles T.; And Others

To develop and test an experimental model of dispute or conflict management through mediation in a school complex, and to examine the basic nature of conflict in schools, the Dispute Management in the Schools Project (DMSP) was conducted. The 3-year mediation project, begun in January 1986, involved an elementary school, an intermediate school, a…

Computer Science and Technology: Modeling and Measurement Techniques for Evaluation of Design Alternatives in the Implementation of Database Management Software. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deutsch, Donald R.

This report describes a research effort that was carried out over a period of several years to develop and demonstrate a methodology for evaluating proposed Database Management System designs. The major proposition addressed by this study is embodied in the thesis statement: Proposed database management system designs can be evaluated best through…

An Analysis of Competencies for Managing Science and Technology Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-19

competency modeling through a two-year task force commissioned by the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology (Shippmann and others, 2000:704...positions—specifically within Research and Development (R&D) programs. If so, the final investigative question tests whether those differences are...statistics are used to analyze the comparisons through hypothesis testing and t- tests relevant to the research investigative questions. These

Modelling regulation of decomposition and related root/mycorrhizal processes in arctic tundra soils

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkins, A.E.

1992-01-01

Since this was the final year of this project principal activities were directed towards either collecting data needed to complete existing incomplete data sets or writing manuscripts. Data sets on Imnaviat Creek watershed basin are functionally complete and data finialized on the cellulose mineralizaiton and dust impact on soil organic carbon and phsophorus decomposition. Seven manuscripts were prepared, and are briefly outlined.

Model Building for Undergraduate Colleges: A Theoretical Framework for Studying and Reforming the Curricular-Instructional Subsystem in American Colleges. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Axelrod, Joseph

In this report of a project on curriculum planning, a new language is developed for analyzing and describing "the curricular-instructional subsystem." Some of the data come from the author's experiences in planning and directing the Experimental Freshman-Year Program (EFP) at San Francisco State College, but most were collected at the…

The Effects of School Ability on Educational Expectations in Fifteen Countries. IEA (Australia) Report 1977: 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDonnell, Patrick

This publication is a report which deals with the effects of school characteristics on the educational process and its outcomes. Specifically, the report focuses on the educational expectations of students at age 14 and in their final year of secondary school, and attempts to replicate in 15 countries a model which considers the effects of school…

Effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on variable infiltration capacity model performance and simulation of streamflow during drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2014-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrologic model performance and the simulation of streamflow during drought using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) observed monthly LAI dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the percentage deviation of the simulated monthly streamflow using the observed monthly LAI from simulated streamflow using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly streamflow in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5 to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59 to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements from 4 to 25% in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in pasture dominated catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with the observed monthly LAI instead of the long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of streamflow during wet and dry periods can be reduced to some extent by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

The effect of year-to-year variability of leaf area index on Variable Infiltration Capacity model performance and simulation of runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-09-01

This study assessed the effect of using observed monthly leaf area index (LAI) on hydrological model performance and the simulation of runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the Goulburn-Broken catchment of Australia, which has heterogeneous vegetation, soil and climate zones. VIC was calibrated with both observed monthly LAI and long-term mean monthly LAI, which were derived from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index dataset covering the period from 1982 to 2012. The model performance under wet and dry climates for the two different LAI inputs was assessed using three criteria, the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the logarithm transformed flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percentage bias. Finally, the deviation of the simulated monthly runoff using the observed monthly LAI from simulated runoff using long-term mean monthly LAI was computed. The VIC model predicted monthly runoff in the selected sub-catchments with model efficiencies ranging from 61.5% to 95.9% during calibration (1982-1997) and 59% to 92.4% during validation (1998-2012). Our results suggest systematic improvements, from 4% to 25% in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, in sparsely forested sub-catchments when the VIC model was calibrated with observed monthly LAI instead of long-term mean monthly LAI. There was limited systematic improvement in tree dominated sub-catchments. The results also suggest that the model overestimation or underestimation of runoff during wet and dry periods can be reduced to 25 mm and 35 mm respectively by including the year-to-year variability of LAI in the model, thus reflecting the responses of vegetation to fluctuations in climate and other factors. Hence, the year-to-year variability in LAI should not be neglected; rather it should be included in model calibration as well as simulation of monthly water balance.

Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north central North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun

2016-11-01

Recently, the winter (December-February) haze pollution over the north central North China Plain (NCP) has become severe. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, two new statistical schemes were established using the multiple linear regression (MLR) and the generalized additive model (GAM). By analyzing the associated increment of atmospheric circulation, seven leading predictors were selected to predict the upcoming winter haze days over the NCP (WHDNCP). After cross validation, the root mean square error and explained variance of the MLR (GAM) prediction model was 3.39 (3.38) and 53 % (54 %), respectively. For the final predicted WHDNCP, both of these models could capture the interannual and interdecadal trends and the extremums successfully. Independent prediction tests for 2014 and 2015 also confirmed the good predictive skill of the new schemes. The predicted bias of the MLR (GAM) prediction model in 2014 and 2015 was 0.09 (-0.07) and -3.33 (-1.01), respectively. Compared to the MLR model, the GAM model had a higher predictive skill in reproducing the rapid and continuous increase of WHDNCP after 2010.

Estimating the decline in excess risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease following quitting smoking - a systematic review based on the negative exponential model.

PubMed

Lee, Peter N; Fry, John S; Forey, Barbara A

2014-03-01

We quantified the decline in COPD risk following quitting using the negative exponential model, as previously carried out for other smoking-related diseases. We identified 14 blocks of RRs (from 11 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers, some studies providing sex-specific blocks. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls/at risk formed the data for model-fitting. We estimated the half-life (H, time since quit when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block, except for one where no decline with quitting was evident, and H was not estimable. For the remaining 13 blocks, goodness-of-fit to the model was generally adequate, the combined estimate of H being 13.32 (95% CI 11.86-14.96) years. There was no heterogeneity in H, overall or by various studied sources. Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation or different assumed times for the final quitting period little affected the results. The model summarizes quitting data well. The estimate of 13.32years is substantially larger than recent estimates of 4.40years for ischaemic heart disease and 4.78years for stroke, and also larger than the 9.93years for lung cancer. Heterogeneity was unimportant for COPD, unlike for the other three diseases. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional modelling of groundwater flow and salt and environmental tracer transport in deep aquifers in the Paris Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Huai Fu; Ledoux, Emmanuel; De Marsily, Ghislain

1990-12-01

A hydrodynamic model which takes into account the aquitard storage effect was developed for the deep multilayered system including the Dogger aquifer and its surroundings in the Paris Basin. It provides a good explanation for a series of observations in the Dogger concerning, for instance, the hydraulic head, the salinity and the transmissivity. The calibration of the model also makes it possible to estimate some unmeasured parameters such as the aquifer and aquitard storage coefficients. Finally, the results of simulations of the transport of 4He and 14C strengthen the representativeness of the model. The Darcy average horizontal velocity in the Dogger, obtained with the model, is of the order of 0.33m year -1.

Draft-camp predictors of subsequent career success in the Australian Football League.

PubMed

Burgess, Darren; Naughton, Geraldine; Hopkins, Will

2012-11-01

The National Draft Camp results are generally considered to be important for informing talent scouts about the physical performance capacities of talented young Australian Rules Football (AFL) players. The purpose of this project was to determine magnitude of associations between five year career success in the AFL and physical draft camp tests, final draft selection order and previous match physical performance. Physical testing data of 99 players from the National Under 18 (U 18) competition were retrospectively analysed across 2002 and 2003 National Draft Camps. Physical match data was collected on these players and links with subsequent early career success (AFL games played) were explored. TrakPerformance Software was used to quantify the movement of 92 players during competitive games of the National U 18 Championships. Linear modelling using results from draft camp data involving 95 U 18 players, along with final draft selection order, was used to predict five year career success in senior AFL. Multiple U 18 match variables demonstrated large associations (sprints/min=43% more games, % sprint=43% more games) with five year career success in AFL. Final draft order and single variable predictors had moderate associations with career success. Neither U 18 matches nor draft camp testing was predictive of injuries incurring over the five years. Variability in senior AFL career success had a large association with a combination of match physical variables and draft test results. The objective data available should be considered in the selection of prospective player success. Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Image RPI Reawakens Plasmaspheric Refilling Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, D. L.; Smith, Z. B.

2007-01-01

The plasmasphere is a toroidal region of cold plasma surrounding the Earth that results from ionospheric outflow and accumulation. The physics of refilling and the dynamics of this region have been studied for nearly 50-years. During that time many models have been proposed, but little has been done to test these models due to a lack of observational information. With the launch of the IMAGE Mission in March 2000 the Radio Plasma Imager has provided true field aligned density measurements that uniquely enable the testing of these models and a final determination of the physical processes important for the plasmasphere's recovery from storm-time conditions.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

Evaluation of a Standardized Program for Training Practicing Anesthesiologists in Ultrasound-Guided Regional Anesthesia Skills.

PubMed

Mariano, Edward R; Harrison, T Kyle; Kim, T Edward; Kan, Jack; Shum, Cynthia; Gaba, David M; Ganaway, Toni; Kou, Alex; Udani, Ankeet D; Howard, Steven K

2015-10-01

Practicing anesthesiologists have generally not received formal training in ultrasound-guided perineural catheter insertion. We designed this study to determine the efficacy of a standardized teaching program in this population. Anesthesiologists in practice for 10 years or more were recruited and enrolled to participate in a 1-day program: lectures and live-model ultrasound scanning (morning) and faculty-led iterative practice and mannequin-based simulation (afternoon). Participants were assessed and recorded while performing ultrasound-guided perineural catheter insertion at baseline, at midday (interval), and after the program (final). Videos were scored by 2 blinded reviewers using a composite tool and global rating scale. Participants were surveyed every 3 months for 1 year to report the number of procedures, efficacy of teaching methods, and implementation obstacles. Thirty-two participants were enrolled and completed the program; 31 of 32 (97%) completed the 1-year follow-up. Final scores [median (10th-90th percentiles)] were 21.5 (14.5-28.0) of 30 points compared to 14.0 (9.0-20.0) at interval (P < .001 versus final) and 12.0 (8.5-17.5) at baseline (P < .001 versus final), with no difference between interval and baseline. The global rating scale showed an identical pattern. Twelve of 26 participants without previous experience performed at least 1 perineural catheter insertion after training (P < .001). However, there were no differences in the monthly average number of procedures or complications after the course when compared to baseline. Practicing anesthesiologists without previous training in ultrasound-guided regional anesthesia can acquire perineural catheter insertion skills after a 1-day standardized course, but changing clinical practice remains a challenge. © 2015 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

A multivariate method for estimating mortality rates among children under 5 years from health and social indicators in Iraq.

PubMed

Garfield, R; Leu, C S

2000-06-01

Many reports on Iraq suggest that a rise in rates of death and disease have occurred since the Gulf War of January/February 1991 and the economic sanctions that followed it. Four preliminary models, based on unadjusted projections, were developed. A logistic regression model was then developed on the basis of six social variables in Iraq and comparable information from countries in the State of the World's Children report. Missing data were estimated for this model by a multiple imputation procedure. The final model depends on three socio-medical indicators: adult literacy, nutritional stunting of children under 5 years, and access to piped water. The model successfully predicted both the mortality rate in 1990, under stable conditions, and in 1991, following the Gulf War. For 1996, after 5 years of sanctions and prior to receipt of humanitarian food via the oil for food programme, this model shows mortality among children under 5 to have reached an estimated 87 per 1000, a rate last experienced more than 30 years ago. Accurate and timely estimates of mortality levels in developing countries are costly and require considerable methodological expertise. A rapid estimation technique like the one developed here may be a useful tool for quick and efficient estimation of mortality rates among under 5 year olds in countries where good mortality data are not routinely available. This is especially true for countries with complex humanitarian emergencies where information on mortality changes can guide interventions and the social stability to use standard demographic methods does not exist.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), III. Re-computed MS and mb, proxy MW, final magnitude composition and completeness assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondár, István; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Bormann, Peter; Harris, James

2015-02-01

This paper outlines the re-computation and compilation of the magnitudes now contained in the final ISC-GEM Reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). The catalogue is available via the ISC website (http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/). The available re-computed MS and mb provided an ideal basis for deriving new conversion relationships to moment magnitude MW. Therefore, rather than using previously published regression models, we derived new empirical relationships using both generalized orthogonal linear and exponential non-linear models to obtain MW proxies from MS and mb. The new models were tested against true values of MW, and the newly derived exponential models were then preferred to the linear ones in computing MW proxies. For the final magnitude composition of the ISC-GEM catalogue, we preferred directly measured MW values as published by the Global CMT project for the period 1976-2009 (plus intermediate-depth earthquakes between 1962 and 1975). In addition, over 1000 publications have been examined to obtain direct seismic moment M0 and, therefore, also MW estimates for 967 large earthquakes during 1900-1978 (Lee and Engdahl, 2015) by various alternative methods to the current GCMT procedure. In all other instances we computed MW proxy values by converting our re-computed MS and mb values into MW, using the newly derived non-linear regression models. The final magnitude composition is an improvement in terms of magnitude homogeneity compared to previous catalogues. The magnitude completeness is not homogeneous over the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue. Therefore, seismicity rate estimates may be strongly affected without a careful time window selection. In particular, the ISC-GEM catalogue appears to be complete down to MW 5.6 starting from 1964, whereas for the early instrumental period the completeness varies from ∼7.5 to 6.2. Further time and resources would be necessary to homogenize the magnitude of completeness over the entire catalogue length.

Application of the Ecosystem Assessment Model to Lake Norman: A cooling lake in North Carolina: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porcella, D.B.; Bowie, G.L.; Campbell, C.L.

The Ecosystem Assessment Model (EAM) of the Cooling Lake Assessment Methodology was applied to the extensive ecological field data collected at Lake Norman, North Carolina by Duke Power Company to evaluate its capability to simulate lake ecosystems and the ecological effects of steam electric power plants. The EAM provided simulations over a five-year verification period that behaved as expected based on a one-year calibration. Major state variables of interest to utilities and regulatory agencies are: temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish community variables. In qualitative terms, temperature simulation was very accurate, dissolved oxygen simulation was accurate, and fish prediction was reasonablymore » accurate. The need for more accurate fisheries data collected at monthly intervals and non-destructive sampling techniques was identified.« less

Carbon sequestration by patch fertilization: A comprehensive assessment using coupled physical-ecological-biogeochemical models: FINAL REPORT of grant Grant No. DE-FG02-04ER63726

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarmiento, Jorge L; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Gruber, Nicolas

2007-06-21

This final report summarizes research undertaken collaboratively between Princeton University, the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory on the Princeton University campus, the State University of New York at Stony Brook, and the University of California, Los Angeles between September 1, 2000, and November 30, 2006, to do fundamental research on ocean iron fertilization as a means to enhance the net oceanic uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. The approach we proposed was to develop and apply a suite of coupled physical-ecologicalbiogeochemical models in order to (i) determine to what extent enhanced carbon fixation from iron fertilization will lead to anmore » increase in the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 and how long this carbon will remain sequestered (efficiency), and (ii) examine the changes in ocean ecology and natural biogeochemical cycles resulting from iron fertilization (consequences). The award was funded in two separate three-year installments: • September 1, 2000 to November 30, 2003, for a project entitled “Ocean carbon sequestration by fertilization: An integrated biogeochemical assessment.” A final report was submitted for this at the end of 2003 and is included here as Appendix 1. • December 1, 2003 to November 30, 2006, for a follow-on project under the same grant number entitled “Carbon sequestration by patch fertilization: A comprehensive assessment using coupled physical-ecological-biogeochemical models.” This report focuses primarily on the progress we made during the second period of funding subsequent to the work reported on in Appendix 1. When we began this project, we were thinking almost exclusively in terms of long-term fertilization over large regions of the ocean such as the Southern Ocean, with much of our focus being on how ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling would interact to control the response to a given fertilization scenario. Our research on these types of scenarios, which was carried out largely during the first three years of our project, led to several major new insights on the interaction between ocean biogeochemistry and circulation. This work, which is described in 2 the following Section II on “Large scale fertilization,” has continued to appear in the literature over the past few years, including two high visibility papers in Nature. Early on in the first three years of our project, it became clear that small "patch-scale" fertilizations over limited regions of order 100 km diameter were much more likely than large scale fertilization, and we carried out a series of idealized patch fertilization simulations reported on in Gnanadesikan et al. (2003). Based on this paper and other results we had obtained by the end of our first three-year grant, we identified a number of important issues that needed to be addressed in the second three-year period of this grant. Section III on “patch fertilization” discusses the major findings of this phase of our research, which is described in two major manuscripts that will be submitted for publication in the near future. This research makes use of new more realistic ocean ecosystem and iron cycling models than our first paper on this topic. We have several major new insights into what controls the efficiency of iron fertilization in the ocean. Section IV on “model development” summarizes a set of papers describing the progress that we made on improving the ecosystem models we use for our iron fertilization simulations.« less

Risk factors of non-specific spinal pain in childhood.

PubMed

Szita, Julia; Boja, Sara; Szilagyi, Agnes; Somhegyi, Annamaria; Varga, Peter Pal; Lazary, Aron

2018-05-01

Non-specific spinal pain can occur at all ages and current evidence suggests that pediatric non-specific spinal pain is predictive for adult spinal conditions. A 5-year long, prospective cohort study was conducted to identify the lifestyle and environmental factors leading to non-specific spinal pain in childhood. Data were collected from school children aged 7-16 years, who were randomly selected from three different geographic regions in Hungary. The risk factors were measured with a newly developed patient-reported questionnaire (PRQ). The quality of the instrument was assessed by the reliability with the test-retest method. Test (N = 952) and validity (N = 897) datasets were randomly formed. Risk factors were identified with uni- and multivariate logistic regression models and the predictive performance of the final model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. The final model was built up by seven risk factors for spinal pain for days; age > 12 years, learning or watching TV for more than 2 h/day, uncomfortable school-desk, sleeping problems, general discomfort and positive familiar medical history (χ 2  = 101.07; df = 8; p < 0.001). The probabilistic performance was confirmed with ROC analysis on the test and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.76; 0.71). A simplified risk scoring system showed increasing possibility for non-specific spinal pain depending on the number of the identified risk factors (χ 2  = 65.0; df = 4; p < 0.001). Seven significant risk factors of non-specific spinal pain in childhood were identified using the new, easy to use and reliable PRQ which makes it possible to stratify the children according to their individual risk. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Bacillary Elimination Rates and Detection of Bacterial Lipid Bodies in Sputum to Predict and Understand Outcomes in Treatment of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Sloan, Derek J.; Mwandumba, Henry C.; Garton, Natalie J.; Khoo, Saye H.; Butterworth, Anthony E.; Allain, Theresa J.; Heyderman, Robert S.; Corbett, Elizabeth L.; Barer, Mike R.; Davies, Geraint R.

2015-01-01

Background. Antibiotic-tolerant bacterial persistence prevents treatment shortening in drug-susceptible tuberculosis, and accumulation of intracellular lipid bodies has been proposed to identify a persister phenotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells. In Malawi, we modeled bacillary elimination rates (BERs) from sputum cultures and calculated the percentage of lipid body–positive acid-fast bacilli (%LB + AFB) on sputum smears. We assessed whether these putative measurements of persistence predict unfavorable outcomes (treatment failure/relapse). Methods. Adults with pulmonary tuberculosis received standard 6-month therapy. Sputum samples were collected during the first 8 weeks for serial sputum colony counting (SSCC) on agar and time-to positivity (TTP) measurement in mycobacterial growth indicator tubes. BERs were extracted from nonlinear and linear mixed-effects models, respectively, fitted to these datasets. The %LB + AFB counts were assessed by fluorescence microscopy. Patients were followed until 1 year posttreatment. Individual BERs and %LB + AFB counts were related to final outcomes. Results. One hundred and thirty-three patients (56% HIV coinfected) participated, and 15 unfavorable outcomes were reported. These were inversely associated with faster sterilization phase bacillary elimination from the SSCC model (odds ratio [OR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], .22–.70) and a faster BER from the TTP model (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, .55–.94). Higher %LB + AFB counts on day 21–28 were recorded in patients who suffered unfavorable final outcomes compared with those who achieved stable cure (P = .008). Conclusions. Modeling BERs predicts final outcome, and high %LB + AFB counts 3–4 weeks into therapy may identify a persister bacterial phenotype. These methods deserve further evaluation as surrogate endpoints for clinical trials. PMID:25778753

76 FR 40394 - Final Plan for Fiscal Year 2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-08

... DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [OJP (OJJDP) Docket No. 1563] Final Plan for Fiscal Year 2011 AGENCY: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.... SUMMARY: The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention is publishing this notice of its Final...

Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model (CJR); Delay of Effective Date. Final rule; delay of effective date.

PubMed

2017-05-19

This final rule finalizes May 20, 2017 as the effective date of the final rule titled "Advancing Care Coordination Through Episode Payment Models (EPMs); Cardiac Rehabilitation Incentive Payment Model; and Changes to the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model (CJR)" originally published in the January 3, 2017 Federal Register. This final rule also finalizes a delay of the applicability date of the regulations at 42 CFR part 512 from July 1, 2017 to January 1, 2018 and delays the effective date of the specific CJR regulations listed in the DATES section from July 1, 2017 to January 1, 2018.

Survival and breeding advantages of larger Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) goslings: Within- and among-cohort variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, J.S.; Chelgren, N.D.

2007-01-01

We examined the relationship between mass late in the first summer and survival and return to the natal breeding colony for 12 cohorts (1986-1997) of female Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber methods and the program MARK to analyze capture-recapture data. Models included two kinds of residuals from regressions of mass on days after peak of hatch when goslings were measured; one based on the entire sample (12 cohorts) and the other based only on individuals in the same cohort. Some models contained date of peak of hatch (a group covariate related to lateness of nesting in that year) and mean cohort residual mass. Finally, models allowed survival to vary among cohorts. The best model of encounter probability included an effect of residual mass on encounter probability and allowed encounter probability to vary among age classes and across years. All competitive models contained an effect of one of the estimates of residual mass; relatively larger goslings survived their first year at higher rates. Goslings in cohorts from later years in the analysis tended to have lower first-year survival, after controlling for residual mass, which reflected the generally smaller mean masses for these cohorts but was potentially also a result of population-density effects additional to those on growth. Variation among cohorts in mean mass accounted for 56% of variation among cohorts in first-year survival. Encounter probabilities, which were correlated with breeding probability, increased with relative mass, which suggests that larger goslings not only survived at higher rates but also bred at higher rates. Although our findings support the well-established linkage between gosling mass and fitness, they suggest that additional environmental factors also influence first-year survival.

Which index should be used to measure primary surgical outcome for unilateral cleft lip and palate patients?

PubMed

Jones, Timothy; Leary, Sam; Atack, Nikki; Ireland, Tony; Sandy, Jonathan

2016-08-01

To determine the optimal dentoalveolar measure to assess unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP) patient plaster models. The models of 34 patients with UCLP taken at 5, 10, and 15-20 years of age were scored by two examiners on two separate occasions using five indices: the 5 Year Olds' (5YO), GOSLON, Modified Huddart/Bodenham (MHB), EUROCRAN, and Overjet. Reliability, validity, and ease of use were recorded for each index/examiner. All models were scored in either Bristol Dental Hospital or Derriford Hospital, Plymouth, United Kingdom by senior orthodontic clinicians. Highest overall reliability was seen with MHB (Kappa = 0.56-0.97). Predictive validity was similar for MHB, GOSLON, and 5YO with a 50-65 per cent prediction of final outcome from 5 and 10 years. EUROCRAN palatal index showed no clear predictive validity (Spearman's correlation = 0.20-0.21). Agreement to the gold standard 5YO score at the 5-year age group was high for MHB (Kappa = 0.83) and moderate for GOSLON (Kappa = 0.59). Agreement to the gold standard GOSLON score at 10 years was highest for 5YO (Kappa = 0.69), followed by Overjet (Kappa = 0.59) and MHB (Kappa = 0.46). Time to score 34 models per index (minutes): GOSLON (13.4) < Overjet (13.6) < 5YO (19.4) < EUROCRAN (24.8) < MHB (27.4). As an outcome measure of UCLP models, only MHB and 5YO indices can be recommended for use at 5 years of age and GOSLON at 10 years of age. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Which index should be used to measure primary surgical outcome for unilateral cleft lip and palate patients?

PubMed Central

Leary, Sam; Atack, Nikki; Ireland, Tony; Sandy, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Summary Objective: To determine the optimal dentoalveolar measure to assess unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP) patient plaster models. Design: The models of 34 patients with UCLP taken at 5, 10, and 15–20 years of age were scored by two examiners on two separate occasions using five indices: the 5 Year Olds’ (5YO), GOSLON, Modified Huddart/Bodenham (MHB), EUROCRAN, and Overjet. Reliability, validity, and ease of use were recorded for each index/examiner. Setting: All models were scored in either Bristol Dental Hospital or Derriford Hospital, Plymouth, United Kingdom by senior orthodontic clinicians. Results: Highest overall reliability was seen with MHB (Kappa = 0.56–0.97). Predictive validity was similar for MHB, GOSLON, and 5YO with a 50–65 per cent prediction of final outcome from 5 and 10 years. EUROCRAN palatal index showed no clear predictive validity (Spearman’s correlation = 0.20–0.21). Agreement to the gold standard 5YO score at the 5-year age group was high for MHB (Kappa = 0.83) and moderate for GOSLON (Kappa = 0.59). Agreement to the gold standard GOSLON score at 10 years was highest for 5YO (Kappa = 0.69), followed by Overjet (Kappa = 0.59) and MHB (Kappa = 0.46). Time to score 34 models per index (minutes): GOSLON (13.4) < Overjet (13.6) < 5YO (19.4) < EUROCRAN (24.8) < MHB (27.4). Conclusion: As an outcome measure of UCLP models, only MHB and 5YO indices can be recommended for use at 5 years of age and GOSLON at 10 years of age. PMID:26988992

Seismic Tomography and the Development of a State Velocity Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, S. J.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes have been a growing concern in the State of Oklahoma in the last few years and as a result, accurate earthquake location is of utmost importance. This means using a high resolution velocity model with both lateral and vertical variations. Velocity data is determined using ambient noise seismic interferometry and tomography. Passive seismic data was acquired from multiple IRIS networks over the span of eight years (2009-2016) and filtered for earthquake removal to obtain the background ambient noise profile for the state. Seismic Interferometry is applied to simulate ray paths between stations, this is done with each possible station pair for highest resolution. Finally the method of seismic tomography is used to extract the velocity data and develop the state velocity map. The final velocity profile will be a compilation of different network analyses due to changing station availability from year to year. North-Central Oklahoma has a dense seismic network and has been operating for the past few years. The seismic stations are located here because this is the most seismically active region. Other parts of the state have not had consistent coverage from year to year, and as such a reliable and high resolution velocity profile cannot be determined from this network. However, the Transportable Array (TA) passed through Oklahoma in 2014 and provided a much wider and evenly spaced coverage. The goal of this study is to ultimately combine these two arrays over time, and provide a high quality velocity profile for the State of Oklahoma.

Forecasting client transitions in British Columbia's Long-Term Care Program.

PubMed Central

Lane, D; Uyeno, D; Stark, A; Gutman, G; McCashin, B

1987-01-01

This article presents a model for the annual transitions of clients through various home and facility placements in a long-term care program. The model, an application of Markov chain analysis, is developed, tested, and applied to over 9,000 clients (N = 9,483) in British Columbia's Long Term Care Program (LTC) over the period 1978-1983. Results show that the model gives accurate forecasts of the progress of groups of clients from state to state in the long-term care system from time of admission until eventual death. Statistical methods are used to test the modeling hypothesis that clients' year-over-year transitions occur in constant proportions from state to state within the long-term care system. Tests are carried out by examining actual year-over-year transitions of each year's new admission cohort (1978-1983). Various subsets of the available data are analyzed and, after accounting for clear differences among annual cohorts, the most acceptable model of the actual client transition data occurred when clients were separated into male and female groups, i.e., the transition behavior of each group is describable by a different Markov model. To validate the model, we develop model estimates for the numbers of existing clients in each state of the long-term care system for the period (1981-1983) for which actual data are available. When these estimates are compared with the actual data, total weighted absolute deviations do not exceed 10 percent of actuals. Finally, we use the properties of the Markov chain probability transition matrix and simulation methods to develop three-year forecasts with prediction intervals for the distribution of the existing total clients into each state of the system. The tests, forecasts, and Markov model supplemental information are contained in a mechanized procedure suitable for a microcomputer. The procedure provides a powerful, efficient tool for decision makers planning facilities and services in response to the needs of long-term care clients. PMID:3121537

Spread of information and infection on finite random networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isham, Valerie; Kaczmarska, Joanna; Nekovee, Maziar

2011-04-01

The modeling of epidemic-like processes on random networks has received considerable attention in recent years. While these processes are inherently stochastic, most previous work has been focused on deterministic models that ignore important fluctuations that may persist even in the infinite network size limit. In a previous paper, for a class of epidemic and rumor processes, we derived approximate models for the full probability distribution of the final size of the epidemic, as opposed to only mean values. In this paper we examine via direct simulations the adequacy of the approximate model to describe stochastic epidemics and rumors on several random network topologies: homogeneous networks, Erdös-Rényi (ER) random graphs, Barabasi-Albert scale-free networks, and random geometric graphs. We find that the approximate model is reasonably accurate in predicting the probability of spread. However, the position of the threshold and the conditional mean of the final size for processes near the threshold are not well described by the approximate model even in the case of homogeneous networks. We attribute this failure to the presence of other structural properties beyond degree-degree correlations, and in particular clustering, which are present in any finite network but are not incorporated in the approximate model. In order to test this “hypothesis” we perform additional simulations on a set of ER random graphs where degree-degree correlations and clustering are separately and independently introduced using recently proposed algorithms from the literature. Our results show that even strong degree-degree correlations have only weak effects on the position of the threshold and the conditional mean of the final size. On the other hand, the introduction of clustering greatly affects both the position of the threshold and the conditional mean. Similar analysis for the Barabasi-Albert scale-free network confirms the significance of clustering on the dynamics of rumor spread. For this network, though, with its highly skewed degree distribution, the addition of positive correlation had a much stronger effect on the final size distribution than was found for the simple random graph.

An outline of graphical Markov models in dentistry.

PubMed

Helfenstein, U; Steiner, M; Menghini, G

1999-12-01

In the usual multiple regression model there is one response variable and one block of several explanatory variables. In contrast, in reality there may be a block of several possibly interacting response variables one would like to explain. In addition, the explanatory variables may split into a sequence of several blocks, each block containing several interacting variables. The variables in the second block are explained by those in the first block; the variables in the third block by those in the first and the second block etc. During recent years methods have been developed allowing analysis of problems where the data set has the above complex structure. The models involved are called graphical models or graphical Markov models. The main result of an analysis is a picture, a conditional independence graph with precise statistical meaning, consisting of circles representing variables and lines or arrows representing significant conditional associations. The absence of a line between two circles signifies that the corresponding two variables are independent conditional on the presence of other variables in the model. An example from epidemiology is presented in order to demonstrate application and use of the models. The data set in the example has a complex structure consisting of successive blocks: the variable in the first block is year of investigation; the variables in the second block are age and gender; the variables in the third block are indices of calculus, gingivitis and mutans streptococci and the final response variables in the fourth block are different indices of caries. Since the statistical methods may not be easily accessible to dentists, this article presents them in an introductory form. Graphical models may be of great value to dentists in allowing analysis and visualisation of complex structured multivariate data sets consisting of a sequence of blocks of interacting variables and, in particular, several possibly interacting responses in the final block.

Effects of Food and Pharmaceutical Formulation on Desmopressin Pharmacokinetics in Children.

PubMed

Michelet, Robin; Dossche, Lien; De Bruyne, Pauline; Colin, Pieter; Boussery, Koen; Vande Walle, Johan; Van Bocxlaer, Jan; Vermeulen, An

2016-09-01

Desmopressin is used for treatment of nocturnal enuresis in children. In this study, we investigated the pharmacokinetics of two formulations-a tablet and a lyophilisate-in both fasted and fed children. Previously published data from two studies (one in 22 children aged 6-16 years, and the other in 25 children aged 6-13 years) were analyzed using population pharmacokinetic modeling. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption was fitted to the data. Covariates were selected using a forward selection procedure. The final model was evaluated, and sensitivity analysis was performed to improve future sampling designs. Simulations were subsequently performed to further explore the relative bioavailability of both formulations and the food effect. The final model described the plasma desmopressin concentrations adequately. The formulation and the fed state were included as covariates on the relative bioavailability. The lyophilisate was, on average, 32.1 % more available than the tablet, and fasted children exhibited an average increase in the relative bioavailability of 101 % in comparison with fed children. Body weight was included as a covariate on distribution volume, using a power function with an exponent of 0.402. Simulations suggested that both the formulation and the food effect were clinically relevant. Bioequivalence data on two formulations of the same drug in adults cannot be readily extrapolated to children. This was the first study in children suggesting that the two desmopressin formulations are not bioequivalent in children at the currently approved dose levels. Furthermore, the effect of food intake was found to be clinically relevant. Sampling times for a future study were suggested. This sampling design should result in more informative data and consequently generate a more robust model.

Automation of closed environments in space for human comfort and safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The results are presented of the first year of a three year project on the automation of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) of the Space Station Freedom (SSF). The results are applicable to other future space mission. The work was done by the Kansas State University NASA/USRA interdisciplinary student design team. The six ECLSS subsystems and how they interact are discussed. Proposed control schemes and their rationale are discussed for the Atmosphere Revitalization (AR) subsystem. Finally, a description of the mathematical models for many components of the ECLSS control system is given.

The transition into veterinary practice: Opinions of recent graduates and final year students

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. Methods The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Results Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and zoonotic issues, veterinary legislation and veterinary practice management, commitment to continuing professional development and ability to evaluate information higher than recent graduates. Recent graduates ranked the attributes of integrity, friendliness and compassion higher than final year students. Conclusions Recent graduates and final year students rate highly the attributes which help foster the client/veterinarian relationship. Recent graduates reflect that a focus on knowledge based attributes is less important once in practice when compared to final year. The study confirms the importance to recent graduates and final year students of attributes considered as non-technical in the transition to working in the veterinary profession. PMID:21939551

The transition into veterinary practice: opinions of recent graduates and final year students.

PubMed

Rhind, Susan M; Baillie, Sarah; Kinnison, Tierney; Shaw, Darren J; Bell, Catriona E; Mellanby, Richard J; Hammond, Jenny; Hudson, Neil P H; Whittington, Rachel E; Donnelly, Ruth

2011-09-22

The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and zoonotic issues, veterinary legislation and veterinary practice management, commitment to continuing professional development and ability to evaluate information higher than recent graduates. Recent graduates ranked the attributes of integrity, friendliness and compassion higher than final year students. Recent graduates and final year students rate highly the attributes which help foster the client/veterinarian relationship. Recent graduates reflect that a focus on knowledge based attributes is less important once in practice when compared to final year. The study confirms the importance to recent graduates and final year students of attributes considered as non-technical in the transition to working in the veterinary profession.

Extension of the behavioral model of healthcare utilization with ethnically diverse, low-income women.

PubMed

Keenan, Lisa A; Marshall, Linda L; Eve, Susan

2002-01-01

Psychosocial vulnerabilities were added to a model of healthcare utilization. This extension was tested among low-income women with ethnicity addressed as a moderator. Structured interviews were conducted at 2 points in time, approximately 1 year apart. The constructs of psychosocial vulnerability, demographic predisposing, barriers, and illness were measured by multiple indicators to allow use of Structural Equation Modeling to analyze results. The models were tested separately for each ethnic group. Community office. African-American (N = 266), Euro-American (N = 200), and Mexican-American (N = 210) women were recruited from the Dallas Metropolitan area to participate in Project Health Outcomes of Women, a multi-year, multi-wave study. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with this sample. Participants had been in heterosexual relationships for at least 1 year, were between 20 and 49 years of age, and had incomes less than 200% of the national poverty level. Healthcare utilization, defined as physician visits and general healthcare visits. Illness mediated the effect of psychosocial vulnerability on healthcare utilization for African Americans and Euro-Americans. The model for Mexican Americans was the most complex. Psychosocial vulnerability on illness was partially mediated by barriers, which also directly affected utilization. Psychosocial vulnerabilities were significant utilization predictors for healthcare use for all low-income women in this study. The final models for the 2 minority groups, African Americans and Mexican Americans, were quite different. Hence, women of color should not be considered a homogeneous group in comparison to Euro-Americans.

Pharmacoepidemiologic investigation of a clonazepam-valproic acid interaction by mixed effect modeling using routine clinical pharmacokinetic data in Japanese patients.

PubMed

Yukawa, E; Nonaka, T; Yukawa, M; Higuchi, S; Kuroda, T; Goto, Y

2003-12-01

Non-linear Mixed Effects Modeling (NONMEM) was used to estimate the effects of clonazepam-valproic acid interaction on clearance values using 576 serum levels collected from 317 pediatric and adult epileptic patients (age range, 0.3-32.6 years) during their clinical routine care. Patients received the administration of clonazepam and/or valproic acid. The final model describing clonazepam clearance was CL = 144.0 TBW-0.172 1.14VPA, where CL is total body clearance (mL/kg/h); TBW is total body weight (kg); VPA = 1 for concomitant administration of valproic acid and VPA = zero otherwise. The final model describing valproic acid clearance was CL (mL/kg/h) = 17.2 TBW-0.264 DOSE0.159 0.821CZP 0.896GEN, where DOSE is the daily dose of valproic acid (mg/kg/day); CZP = 1 for concomitant administration of clonazepam and CZP = zero otherwise; GEN = 1 for female and GEN = zero otherwise. Concomitant administration of clonazepam and valproic acid resulted in a 14% increase in clonazepam clearance, and a 17.9% decrease in valproic acid clearance.

Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

PubMed

Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

2013-02-01

Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

2009-01-01

Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

Medicare program; prospective payment system and consolidated billing for skilled nursing facilities for FY 2010; minimum data set, version 3.0 for skilled nursing facilities and Medicaid nursing facilities. Final rule.

PubMed

2009-08-11

This final rule updates the payment rates used under the prospective payment system (PPS) for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), for fiscal year (FY) 2010. In addition, it recalibrates the case-mix indexes so that they more accurately reflect parity in expenditures related to the implementation of case-mix refinements in January 2006. It also discusses the results of our ongoing analysis of nursing home staff time measurement data collected in the Staff Time and Resource Intensity Verification project, as well as a new Resource Utilization Groups, version 4 case-mix classification model for FY 2011 that will use the updated Minimum Data Set 3.0 resident assessment for case-mix classification. In addition, this final rule discusses the public comments that we have received on these and other issues, including a possible requirement for the quarterly reporting of nursing home staffing data, as well as on applying the quality monitoring mechanism in place for all other SNF PPS facilities to rural swing-bed hospitals. Finally, this final rule revises the regulations to incorporate certain technical corrections.

26 CFR 1.401(a)(5)-1 - Special rules relating to nondiscrimination requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... compensation for A's final 5 plan years is as follows: 1995 plan year $10,500 1994 plan year $20,000 1993 plan... this section, an employee's final pay from the employer as of a plan year is the employee's compensation (as defined in section 414(q)(7)) for the year (ending with or within the 5-plan-year period...

Mode of Entry as a Predictor of Success in Final Year Bachelor of Education Degree Examinations in Universities in Ekiti and Ondo States, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adeyemi, T. O.

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the mode of entry as a predictor of success in final year bachelor of education degree examinations in universities in Ekiti and Ondo States, Nigeria. As an ex-post facto and correlational research, the study population comprised all the 1810 final year 400 level students in the two universities offering education courses,…

Reciprocal benefit to senior and junior peers: An outcome of a pilot research workshop at medical university.

PubMed

Ahsin, Sadia; Abbas, Seyyeda; Zaidi, Noshin; Azad, Nadia; Kaleem, Fatima

2015-08-01

A study was planned to explore and evaluate the role of senior peers in the learning process of their juniors during a Research Methodology workshop, and to assess educational advantages for seniors in leading roles. Twenty medical students participated with 15 juniors (1st to 3rd year) and 5 seniors (final/fourth year) divided into 5 groups with one senior student each at Foundation University Medical College, Islamabad, Pakistan. The seniors supervised and engaged the groups to develop research questions, formulate objectives, review literature, outline study designs, develop study tools/questionnaire and finally shape their projects in synopsis. Overall advantages to both juniors and seniors through this peer-assisted learning model were assessed by feedback proformas with open and closed-ended questions. Senior peers' facilitation was effective in the learning process of junior peers. Senior peers also gained academic benefit by exercising their leadership qualities through teaching and maintaining group dynamics.

Trajectories of Social Withdrawal from Middle Childhood to Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Oh, Wonjung; Bowker, Julie C.; Booth-LaForce, Cathryn; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Laursen, Brett

2013-01-01

Heterogeneity and individual differences in the developmental course of social withdrawal were examined longitudinally in a community sample (N=392). General Growth Mixture Modeling (GGMM) was used to identify distinct pathways of social withdrawal, differentiate valid subgroup trajectories, and examine factors that predicted change in trajectories within subgroups. Assessments of individual (social withdrawal), interactive (prosocial behavior), relationship (friendship involvement, stability and quality, best friend’s withdrawal and exclusion/victimization) and group- (exclusion/victimization) level characteristics were used to define growth trajectories from the final year of elementary school, across the transition to middle school, and then to the final year of middle school (fifth-to-eighth grades). Three distinct trajectory classes were identified: low stable, increasing, and decreasing. Peer exclusion, prosocial behavior, and mutual friendship involvement differentiated class membership. Friendlessness, friendship instability, and exclusion were significant predictors of social withdrawal for the increasing class, whereas lower levels of peer exclusion predicted a decrease in social withdrawal for the decreasing class. PMID:18193479

Cueing Metacognition to Improve Researching and Essay Writing in a Final Year High School Biology Class

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conner, L. N.

2007-03-01

This paper reports on degrees of awareness and use of specific metacognitive strategies by 16 students in a final-year high school biology class in New Zealand. The aims of the intervention were to broaden students' thinking about bioethical issues associated with cancer and to enhance students' use of metacognition. Cues and prompts were used in this unit of work to help students use metacognitive strategies since students did not generally use metacognitive strategies spontaneously. Scaffolding was mediated through the teacher modelling, questioning, cueing or prompting students to evaluate their learning. The research reported here illustrates how teachers can cue students to be more self-directed in their learning. Three case studies illustrate how learning strategies were used differentially. Most students were aware of strategies that could help them to learn more effectively. It was found that those students who were not only aware of but also used strategies to plan, monitor and evaluate their work, produced essays of higher quality.

What Do Final Year Medical Students Understand by the Concept of Recovery? A Descriptive Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Newton-Howes, Giles; Beverley, Georgia; Ellis, Pete M; Gordon, Sarah; Levack, William

2018-06-01

Traditional teaching in psychiatry does little to address recovery concepts. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incorporation of a recovery-focused teaching program for medical students in psychiatry. Recovery, as understood by medical students who had participated in a recovery-focused teaching program, was assessed by thematic analysis of recovery-focused assessment reflections. Six major themes emerged from the recovery reflections from final year medical students are as follows: (1) recovery as a person-centered approach, (2) the need for social integration, (3) non-diagnostic framing of mental illness, (4) tensions between the medical model and personal recovery, (5) a patient's willingness to engage with mental health services, and (6) the development of a positive sense of self. A recovery teaching program was associated with students expressing knowledge of recovery principles and positive attitudes towards people with experience of mental illness. Psychiatric placements for medical students may benefit from a recovery focus.

The bound-state properties summary and recommendations of working group 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friar, J. L.; Frois, B.

A dozen years ago virtually nothing was known about three-nucleon forces. In the intervening years we have learned to solve routinely the trinucleon bound-state Faddeev equations for what amounts to the complete (model) nucleon-nucleon potential, and to include complicated three-nucleon forces as well. The art of constructing those forces has dramatically improved, and modern versions of these forces contain components derived from the exchange of heavy mesons, in addition to pion exchange. Experimental sophistication in probing the trinucleon ground states has made similar improvements. The recent Saclay and MIT tritium form factor experiments have finally unravelled the isospin structure of the trinucleon charge densities, and have generated new challenges for theorists. Although there are few definite conclusions yet and much remains to be done, the progress has been exceptional. Perhaps it is not too pretentious to quote the final frame of the movie 41 Destination Moon: "This is the end of the beginning."

Trajectories of social withdrawal from middle childhood to early adolescence.

PubMed

Oh, Wonjung; Rubin, Kenneth H; Bowker, Julie C; Booth-LaForce, Cathryn; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Laursen, Brett

2008-05-01

Heterogeneity and individual differences in the developmental course of social withdrawal were examined longitudinally in a community sample (N = 392). General Growth Mixture Modeling (GGMM) was used to identify distinct pathways of social withdrawal, differentiate valid subgroup trajectories, and examine factors that predicted change in trajectories within subgroups. Assessments of individual (social withdrawal), interactive (prosocial behavior), relationship (friendship involvement, stability and quality, best friend's withdrawal and exclusion/victimization) and group- (exclusion/victimization) level characteristics were used to define growth trajectories from the final year of elementary school, across the transition to middle school, and then to the final year of middle school (fifth-to-eighth grades). Three distinct trajectory classes were identified: low stable, increasing, and decreasing. Peer exclusion, prosocial behavior, and mutual friendship involvement differentiated class membership. Friendlessness, friendship instability, and exclusion were significant predictors of social withdrawal for the increasing class, whereas lower levels of peer exclusion predicted a decrease in social withdrawal for the decreasing class.

Reproductive history and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in postmenopausal women: findings from the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Erin S; Kapphahn, Kristopher; Hedlin, Haley; Desai, Manisha; Parikh, Nisha I; Liu, Simin; Parker, Donna R; Anderson, Matthew; Aroda, Vanita; Sullivan, Shannon; Woods, Nancy F; Waring, Molly E; Lewis, Cora E; Stefanick, Marcia

2017-01-01

The aim of the study was to understand the association between women's reproductive history and their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased risk. Prospective cohort analysis of 124,379 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). We determined age of menarche and final menstrual period, and history of irregular menses from questionnaires at baseline, and calculated reproductive length from age of menarche and final menstrual period. Presence of new onset type 2 diabetes was from self-report. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed associations between reproductive variables and incidence of type 2 diabetes. In age-adjusted models, women with the shortest (<30 y) reproductive periods had a 37% (95% CI, 30-45) greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes than women with medium-length reproductive periods (36-40 y). Women with the longest (45+ y) reproductive periods had a 23% (95% CI, 12-37) higher risk than women with medium-length periods. These associations were attenuated after full adjustment (HR 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] for shortest and HR 1.09 [0.99, 1.22] for longest, compared with medium duration). Those with a final menstrual period before age 45 and after age 55 had an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.09 and HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14, respectively) compared to those with age of final menstrual period between 46 and 55 years. Timing of menarche and cycle regularity was not associated with risk after full adjustment. Reproductive history may be associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Women with shorter and longer reproductive periods may benefit from lifestyle counseling to prevent type 2 diabetes.

The Presence of the British Education Model in Spain: Reception through the Institución Libre De Enseñanza

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernández-Soria, Juan Manuel

2014-01-01

Spain suffered a severe political and moral crisis in the final years of the nineteenth century and the first third of the twentieth. Pedagogues and politicians belonging to the "Institución Libre de Enseñanza" (ILE), or those close to it, did not consider it possible to regenerate the country without attending to education and Britain…

Evaluation Tools in the European Higher Education Area (EHEA): An Assessment for Evaluating the Competences of the Final Year Project in the Social Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mateo, Joan; Escofet, Anna; Martinez-Olmo, Francesc; Ventura, Javier; Vlachopoulos, Dimitrios

2012-01-01

The guidelines of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) imply the rethinking of many of the current evaluation systems, since the new pedagogical models now focus on the learning acquired through the students' personal work and on the establishment of the ideal conditions for them to achieve the learning outcomes of the proposed educational…

A Cooperative Plan to Establish an Early Childhood Center for the Invention, Demonstration, and Evaluation of Innovative Practices in Early Childhood Education. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irondequoit Central School District 3, Rochester, NY.

In 1968 an upstate New York School district, acting on behalf of nine school districts, planned and established an Early Childhood Center. This evaluative report of a 2-year demonstration preschool, modeled on the British Infant School, describes the open classroom arrangement and its effect on the center's children, teachers, and student…

Schools to Watch: School Transformation Network, a U.S. Deparment of Education Investing in Innovation (i3) Development Grant. Final Evaluation Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grantee Submission, 2015

2015-01-01

The Schools to Watch: School Transformation Network Project is a whole school reform model designed to improve the educational practices, experiences, and outcomes of low-performing middle-grades schools. Developed by the National Forum to Accelerate Middle-Grades Reform, the four-year project was funded in 2010 by a U.S. Department of Education…

The Early Childhood Cluster Initiative of Palm Beach County, Florida. Early Implementation Study And Evaluability Assessment. Final Report. Chapin Hall Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spielberger, Julie; Goyette, Paul

2006-01-01

This publication reports findings from the first year of an implementation study of the Early Childhood Cluster Initiative (ECCI). ECCI is a prekindergarten program in ten elementary schools and a community child care center in Palm Beach County, based on the design of the High/Scope Perry Preschool model. The initiative is characterized by low…

Programs of Study as a State Policy Mandate: A Longitudinal Study of the South Carolina Personal Pathways to Success Initiative. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammond, Cathy; Drew, Sam F.; Withington, Cairen; Griffith, Cathy; Swiger, Caroline M.; Mobley, Catherine; Sharp, Julia L.; Stringfield, Samuel C.; Stipanovic, Natalie; Daugherty, Lindsay

2013-01-01

This executive summary outlines key findings from the final technical report of a five-year study of South Carolina's Personal Pathways to Success Initiative, which was authorized by the state's Education and Economic Development Act (EEDA) in 2005. The Personal Pathways initiative is a K-16, career-focused school reform model intended to improve…

The Necessity and Applicability Levels of the Courses that are Offered in the Departments of Computer Education and Instructional Technologies (CEIT)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Acat, M. Bahaddin; Kilic, Abdurrahman; Girmen, Pinar; Anagun, Senegul S.

2007-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to identify the levels of the necessity and applicability of the courses offered in the Departments of Computer Education and Instructional Technologies based on the views of the fourth grade and graduated students. In the study descriptive research model was used. The population of the study were final-year and…

Final Evaluation Report of the 1970-1971 Group C-Kindergarten Education Programs, Districts Number 4, 5, 9, 27. ESEA Title I.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertoldi, Arthur; Duphiney, Lorna

A differentiated staffing model involving the use of adult educational assistants to work with the kindergarten teacher and children within the classroom was utilized as the experimental concept for an Early Childhood project funded under Title I of the 1965 Elementary Secondary Education Act in the 1970-71 school year. The primary purpose of the…

Imitation of live and televised models by children one to three years of age.

PubMed

McCall, R B; Parke, R D; Kavanaugh, R D

1977-01-01

The results of these studies indicated that children younger than 1 year possess the cognitive capability of translating a perception of a novel action into their own behavior. However, the likelihood of imitation varied as a function of the nature of the target behavior. For example, actions requiring direct social commerce with the examiner were imitated less frequently than simple motor behaviors with objects, and reproducing gestures was more common than vocalizations. Moreover, imitation seemed to depend upon the child's level of mental development--the imitation of coordinated sequences, which requires the child to associate two external events, lagged behind the imitation of single-unit behaviors. There was no evidence for individual traits of general imitativeness, at least not until symbolic relations were involved. Live models were imitated more than TV models but only prior to age 3. While children under 2 years of age were not facile at imitating sequences of behaviors or delaying performance at short time after modeling, older toddlers readily and accurately imitated televised sequences even after a 24-hour delay. Whereas socially extroverted and fearless children imitated live models more than shy children, TV imitation was not related to temperament, home TV viewing habits, or parental education. Finally, the experience of being imitated may facilitate the social cognition of influencing another person.

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, William (Technical Monitor); Cranmer, Steven R.

2005-01-01

The paper discusses the following: 1. No-cost Extension. The no-cost extension is required to complete the work on the unified model codes (both hydrodynamic and kinetic Monte Carlo) as described in the initial proposal and previous annual reports. 2. Scientific Accomplishments during the Report Period. We completed a comprehensive model of Alfvtn wave reflection that spans the full distance from the photosphere to the distant heliosphere. 3. Comparison of Accomplishments with Proposed Goals. The proposal contained two specific objectives for Year 3: (1) to complete the unified model code, and (2) to apply it to various kinds of coronal holes (and polar plumes within coronal holes). Although the anticipated route toward these two final goals has changed (see accomplishments 2a and 2b above), they remain the major milestones for the extended period of performance. Accomplishments la and IC were necessary prerequisites for the derivation of "physically relevant transport and mode-coupling terms" for the unified model codes (as stated in the proposal Year 3 goals). We have fulfilled the proposed "core work" to study 4 general types of physical processes; in previous years we studied turbulence, mode coupling (Le., non-WKB reflection), and kinetic wave damping, and accomplishment lb provides the fourth topic: nonlinear steepening.

The bidirectional pathways between internalizing and externalizing problems and academic performance from 6 to 18 years.

PubMed

Van der Ende, Jan; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

2016-08-01

Internalizing and externalizing problems are associated with poor academic performance, both concurrently and longitudinally. Important questions are whether problems precede academic performance or vice versa, whether both internalizing and externalizing are associated with academic problems when simultaneously tested, and whether associations and their direction depend on the informant providing information. These questions were addressed in a sample of 816 children who were assessed four times. The children were 6-10 years at baseline and 14-18 years at the last assessment. Parent-reported internalizing and externalizing problems and teacher-reported academic performance were tested in cross-lagged models to examine bidirectional paths between these constructs. These models were compared with cross-lagged models testing paths between teacher-reported internalizing and externalizing problems and parent-reported academic performance. Both final models revealed similar pathways from mostly externalizing problems to academic performance. No paths emerged from internalizing problems to academic performance. Moreover, paths from academic performance to internalizing and externalizing problems were only found when teachers reported on children's problems and not for parent-reported problems. Additional model tests revealed that paths were observed in both childhood and adolescence. Externalizing problems place children at increased risk of poor academic performance and should therefore be the target for interventions.

Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokar Arsanjani, Jamal; Helbich, Marco; Kainz, Wolfgang; Darvishi Boloorani, Ali

2013-04-01

This research analyses the suburban expansion in the metropolitan area of Tehran, Iran. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Environmental and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were operationalised to create a probability surface of spatiotemporal states of built-up land use for the years 2006, 2016, and 2026. For validation, the model was evaluated by means of relative operating characteristic values for different sets of variables. The approach was calibrated for 2006 by cross comparing of actual and simulated land use maps. The achieved outcomes represent a match of 89% between simulated and actual maps of 2006, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. Thereafter, the calibrated hybrid approach was implemented for forthcoming years. Finally, future land use maps for 2016 and 2026 were predicted by means of this hybrid approach. The simulated maps illustrate a new wave of suburban development in the vicinity of Tehran at the western border of the metropolis during the next decades.

Assessing the response of Emerald Lake, an alpine watershed in Sequoia National Park, California, to acidification during snowmelt by using a simple hydrochemical model. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooper, R.P.; West, C.T.; Peters, N.E.

1990-08-01

The authors constructed a simple, process-oriented model, called the Alpine Lake Forecaster (ALF), using data collected during the Integrated Watershed Study at Emerald Lake, Sequoia National Park, CA. The model was designed to answer questions concerning the impact of acid deposition on high-elevation watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, CA. ALF is able to capture the basic solute patterns in stream water during snowmelt in this alpine catchment where ground water is a minor contributor to stream flow. It includes an empirical representation of primary mineral weathering as the only alkalinity-generating mechanism. Hydrologic and chemical data from a heavy snow yearmore » were used to calibrate the model. Watershed processes during a light snow year appeared to be different from the calibration year. The model forecast concludes that stream and lake water are most likely to experience a loss of ANC and depression in pH during spring rain storms that occur during the snowmelt dilution phase.« less

High-accuracy 3-D modeling of cultural heritage: the digitizing of Donatello's "Maddalena".

PubMed

Guidi, Gabriele; Beraldin, J Angelo; Atzeni, Carlo

2004-03-01

Three-dimensional digital modeling of Heritage works of art through optical scanners, has been demonstrated in recent years with results of exceptional interest. However, the routine application of three-dimensional (3-D) modeling to Heritage conservation still requires the systematic investigation of a number of technical problems. In this paper, the acquisition process of the 3-D digital model of the Maddalena by Donatello, a wooden statue representing one of the major masterpieces of the Italian Renaissance which was swept away by the Florence flood of 1966 and successively restored, is described. The paper reports all the steps of the acquisition procedure, from the project planning to the solution of the various problems due to range camera calibration and to material non optically cooperative. Since the scientific focus is centered on the 3-D model overall dimensional accuracy, a methodology for its quality control is described. Such control has demonstrated how, in some situations, the ICP-based alignment can lead to incorrect results. To circumvent this difficulty we propose an alignment technique based on the fusion of ICP with close-range digital photogrammetry and a non-invasive procedure in order to generate a final accurate model. In the end detailed results are presented, demonstrating the improvement of the final model, and how the proposed sensor fusion ensure a pre-specified level of accuracy.

3D documenatation of the petalaindera: digital heritage preservation methods using 3D laser scanner and photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, Harlina Md; Hazumi, Hazman; Hafizuddin Meli, Rafiq

2018-01-01

3D imaging technologies have undergone massive revolution in recent years. Despite this rapid development, documentation of 3D cultural assets in Malaysia is still very much reliant upon conventional techniques such as measured drawings and manual photogrammetry. There is very little progress towards exploring new methods or advanced technologies to convert 3D cultural assets into 3D visual representation and visualization models that are easily accessible for information sharing. In recent years, however, the advent of computer vision (CV) algorithms make it possible to reconstruct 3D geometry of objects by using image sequences from digital cameras, which are then processed by web services and freeware applications. This paper presents a completed stage of an exploratory study that investigates the potentials of using CV automated image-based open-source software and web services to reconstruct and replicate cultural assets. By selecting an intricate wooden boat, Petalaindera, this study attempts to evaluate the efficiency of CV systems and compare it with the application of 3D laser scanning, which is known for its accuracy, efficiency and high cost. The final aim of this study is to compare the visual accuracy of 3D models generated by CV system, and 3D models produced by 3D scanning and manual photogrammetry for an intricate subject such as the Petalaindera. The final objective is to explore cost-effective methods that could provide fundamental guidelines on the best practice approach for digital heritage in Malaysia.

Runoff projection under climate change over Yarlung Zangbo River, Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

The Yarlung Zangbo River is located in southwest of China, one of the major source of "Asian water tower". The river has great hydropower potential and provides vital water resource for local and downstream agricultural production and livestock husbandry. Compared to its drainage area, gauge observation is sometimes not enough for good hydrological modeling in order to project future runoff. In this study, we employ a semi-distributed hydrologic model SWAT to simulate hydrological process of the river with rainfall observation and TRMM 3B4V7 respectively and the hydrological model performance is evaluated based on not only total runoff but snowmelt, precipitation and groundwater components. Firstly, calibration and validation of the hydrological model are executed to find behavioral parameter sets for both gauge observation and TRMM data respectively. Then, behavioral parameter sets with diverse efficiency coefficient (NS) values are selected and corresponding runoff components are analyzed. Robust parameter sets are further employed in SWAT coupled with CMIP5 GCMs to project future runoff. The final results show that precipitation is the dominating contributor nearly all year around, while snowmelt and groundwater are important in the summer and winter alternatively. Also sufficient robust parameter sets help reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling. Finally, future possible runoff changes will have major consequences for water and flood security.

A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Assi, Hazem I; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

2016-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis.

A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Assi, Hazem I.; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

2016-01-01

Introduction: The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. Results: There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. Conclusions: In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis. PMID:27217858

A Bayesian hierarchical latent trait model for estimating rater bias and reliability in large-scale performance assessment

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We propose a novel approach to modelling rater effects in scoring-based assessment. The approach is based on a Bayesian hierarchical model and simulations from the posterior distribution. We apply it to large-scale essay assessment data over a period of 5 years. Empirical results suggest that the model provides a good fit for both the total scores and when applied to individual rubrics. We estimate the median impact of rater effects on the final grade to be ± 2 points on a 50 point scale, while 10% of essays would receive a score at least ± 5 different from their actual quality. Most of the impact is due to rater unreliability, not rater bias. PMID:29614129

AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

46 CFR Appendix II to Part 390 - Sample Capital Construction Fund Agreement

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) In the case of a vessel constructed or acquired within one year of final delivery from the shipyard... date of such vessel's final delivery; (2) In the case of a vessel reconstructed or acquired more than one year after final delivery from the shipyard after construction with the aid of qualified...

46 CFR Appendix II to Part 390 - Sample Capital Construction Fund Agreement

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) In the case of a vessel constructed or acquired within one year of final delivery from the shipyard... date of such vessel's final delivery; (2) In the case of a vessel reconstructed or acquired more than one year after final delivery from the shipyard after construction with the aid of qualified...

Tourism forecasting using modified empirical mode decomposition and group method of data handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, N. A.; Samsudin, R.; Shabri, A.

2017-09-01

In this study, a hybrid model using modified Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) model is proposed for tourism forecasting. This approach reconstructs intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) produced by EMD using trial and error method. The new component and the remaining IMFs is then predicted respectively using GMDH model. Finally, the forecasted results for each component are aggregated to construct an ensemble forecast. The data used in this experiment are monthly time series data of tourist arrivals from China, Thailand and India to Malaysia from year 2000 to 2016. The performance of the model is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) where conventional GMDH model and EMD-GMDH model are used as benchmark models. Empirical results proved that the proposed model performed better forecasts than the benchmarked models.

Recent Updates to the System Advisor Model (SAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiOrio, Nicholas A

The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a mature suite of techno-economic models for many renewable energy technologies that can be downloaded for free as a desktop application or software development kit. SAM is used for system-level modeling, including generating performance pro the release of the code as an open source project on GitHub. Other additions that will be covered include the ability to download data directly into SAM from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and up- dates to a user-interface macro that assists with PV system sizing. A brief update on SAM's battery model and its integration with themore » detailed photovoltaic model will also be discussed. Finally, an outline of planned work for the next year will be presented, including the addition of a bifacial model, support for multiple MPPT inputs for detailed inverter modeling, and the addition of a model for inverter thermal behavior.« less

Elucidating the Population Dynamics of Japanese Knotweed Using Integral Projection Models

PubMed Central

Dauer, Joseph T.; Jongejans, Eelke

2013-01-01

Plant demographic studies coupled with population modeling are crucial components of invasive plant management because they inform managers when in a plant’s life cycle it is most susceptible to control efforts. Providing land managers with appropriate data can be especially challenging when there is limited data on potentially important transitions that occur belowground. For 2 years, we monitored 4 clonal Japanese knotweed ( Polygonum cuspidatum ) infestations for emergence, survival, shoot height until leaf senescence, dry shoot biomass after senescence, and rhizome connections for 424 shoots. We developed an integral projection model using both final autumn shoot height and shoot biomass as predictors of survival between years, growth from year to year, and number of rhizomes produced by a shoot (fecundity). Numbers of new shoots within an infestation (population growth rate λ) were projected to increase 13-233% in a year, with the greatest increase at the most frequently disturbed site. Elasticity analysis revealed population growth at 3 of the 4 sites was primarily due to ramet survival between years and to year-to-year growth in shoot height and shoot biomass. Population growth at the fourth site, the most disturbed, was due to the large production of new rhizomes and associated shoots. In contrast to previous studies, our excavation revealed that most of the shoots were not interconnected, suggesting rhizome production may be limited by the size or age of the plants, resource availability, disturbance frequency, or other factors. Future integration of plant population models with more data on belowground growth structures will clarify the critical stages in Japanese knotweed life cycle and support land managers in their management decisions. PMID:24073249

A Point System for Predicting 10-Year Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Men: Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.

PubMed

Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Li, Yuanying; Hirakawa, Yoshihisa; Ota, Atsuhiko; Matsunaga, Masaaki; Haregot, Hilawe Esayas; Chiang, Chifa; Zhang, Yan; Tamakoshi, Koji; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Aoyama, Atsuko

2018-03-17

Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men. We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers' Cohort Study, who were aged 35-64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study's model. During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects. The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Prognostic model of survival for typical bronchial carcinoid tumours: analysis of 1109 patients on behalf of the European Association of Thoracic Surgeons (ESTS) Neuroendocrine Tumours Working Group.

PubMed

Filosso, Pier Luigi; Guerrera, Francesco; Evangelista, Andrea; Welter, Stefan; Thomas, Pascal; Casado, Paula Moreno; Rendina, Erino Angelo; Venuta, Federico; Ampollini, Luca; Brunelli, Alessandro; Stella, Franco; Nosotti, Mario; Raveglia, Federico; Larocca, Valentina; Rena, Ottavio; Margaritora, Stefano; Ardissone, Francesco; Travis, William D; Sarkaria, Inderpal; Sagan, Dariusz

2015-09-01

Typical carcinoids (TCs) are uncommon, slow-growing neoplasms, usually with high 5-year survival rates. As these are rare tumours, their management is still based on small clinical observations and no international guidelines exist. Based on the European Society of Thoracic Surgeon Neuroendocrine Tumours Working Group (NET-WG) Database, we evaluated factors that may influence TCs mortality. Using the NET-WG database, an analysis on TC survival was performed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated starting from the date of intervention. Predictors of OS were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-centre correlation). Candidate predictors were: gender, age, smoking habit, tumour location, previous malignancy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), pT, pN, TNM stage and tumour vascular invasion. The final model included predictors with P ≤ 0.15 after a backward selection. Missing data in the evaluated predictors were multiple-imputed and combined estimates were obtained from five imputed data sets. For 58 of 1167 TC patients vital status was unavailable and analyses were therefore performed on 1109 patients from 17 institutions worldwide. During a median follow-up of 50 months, 87 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 93.7% (95% confidence interval: 91.7-95.3). Backward selection resulted in a prediction model for mortality containing age, gender, previous malignancies, peripheral tumour, TNM stage and ECOG PS. The final model showed a good discrimination ability with a C-statistic equal to 0.836 (bootstrap optimism-corrected 0.806). We presented and validated a promising prognostic model for TC survival, showing good calibration and discrimination ability. Further analyses are needed and could be focused on an external validation of this model. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Predictors of outcomes after arthroscopic transosseous equivalent rotator cuff repair in 155 cases: a propensity score weighted analysis of knotted and knotless self-reinforcing repair techniques at a minimum of 2 years.

PubMed

Millett, Peter J; Espinoza, Chris; Horan, Marilee P; Ho, Charles P; Warth, Ryan J; Dornan, Grant J; Christoph Katthagen, J

2017-10-01

To evaluate the outcomes of two commonly used transosseous-equivalent (TOE) arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (RCR) techniques for full-thickness supraspinatus tendon tears (FTST) using a robust multi-predictor model. 155 shoulders in 151 patients (109 men, 42 women; mean age 59 ± 10 years) who underwent arthroscopic RCR of FTST, using either a knotted suture bridging (KSB) or a knotless tape bridging (KTB) TOE technique were included. ASES and SF-12 PCS scores assessed at a minimum of 2 years postoperatively were modeled using propensity score weighting in a multiple linear regression model. Patients able to return to the study center underwent a follow-up MRI for evaluation of rotator cuff integrity. The outcome data were available for 137 shoulders (88%; n = 35/41 KSB; n = 102/114 KTB). Seven patients (5.1%) that underwent revision rotator cuff surgery were considered failures. The median postoperative ASES score of the remaining 130 shoulders was 98 at a mean follow-up of 2.9 years (range 2.0-5.4 years). A higher preoperative baseline outcome score and a longer follow-up had a positive effect, whereas a previous RCR and workers' compensation claims (WCC) had a negative effect on final ASES or SF 12 PCS scores. The repair technique, age, gender and the number of anchors used for the RCR had no significant influence. Fifty-two patients returned for a follow-up MRI at a mean of 4.4 years postoperatively. Patients with a KSB RCR were significantly more likely to have an MRI-diagnosed full-thickness rotator cuff re-tear (p < 0.05). Excellent outcomes can be achieved at a minimum of 2 years following arthroscopic KSB or KTB TOE RCR of FTST. The preoperative baseline outcome score, a prior RCR, WCC and the length of follow-up significantly influenced the outcome scores. The repair technique did not affect the final functional outcomes, but patients with KTB TOE RCR were less likely to have a full-thickness rotator cuff re-tear. Level III, Retrospective Comparative Study.

Peer mentored teams to support undergraduate group work in higher education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cinderey, Lynn Elizabeth

This research starts with a set of practical research questions to investigate a problem which occurs in some computing undergraduate modules that use group work as part of the learning and assessment strategy. In this study final year students with experience in information systems project work and trained in team processes met with small groups of first year computing students with the aim of turning the first year project group into a team. This study seeks to explore the experience of the final year students as they take on the role of peer tutor looking at the problems they perceive within the first year teams and the skills and knowledge they use to help them. The study includes the recruitment and training of final year students (n=9) and allocation to first year teams. The final year students acted as co-researchers and team leaders in L4 Information Systems project work and recorded their thoughts and observations in a diary during the first semester of 2008/9 academic year. Diary data was supplemented by interview data from a sample of final year students (n=4). The sample was selected based on the richness of the data provided in the diaries and the number of meetings held with their teams. Rich data and thick descriptions were essential for a phenomenological examination of the experience of the final year students. A number of findings emerged. A critical approach to analysis revealed ongoing conflicts occurred across cultural divides within the first year teams that final year leaders did not articulate or appear fully aware of. This had important implications for individual team members. Other findings which relate to issues of changing levels of motivation in the teams over the ten weeks, roles adopted by the leaders, ability to systematize the project or team processes and the ability to reflect on unsuccessful strategies also had implications for peer mentoring training and support. The picture that emerged from the data suggested that lack of intercultural sensitivity and empathy within the student group reduces the value of peer mentoring interventions for some first year undergraduate team members in computing. In order to improve the experience for all students, methods to develop intercultural sensitivity within the student body are examined and a framework for training and support is proposed.

Advances and Best Practices in Airborne Gravimetry from the U.S. GRAV-D Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, Theresa; Childers, Vicki; Preaux, Sandra; Holmes, Simon; Weil, Carly

2013-04-01

The Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum (GRAV-D) project, an official policy of the U.S. National Geodetic Survey as of 2007, is working to survey the entire U.S. and its holdings with high-altitude airborne gravimetry. The goal of the project is to provide a consistent, high-quality gravity dataset that will become the cornerstone of a new gravimetric geoid and national vertical datum in 2022. Over the last five years, the GRAV-D project has surveyed more than 25% of the country, accomplishing almost 500 flights on six different aircraft platforms and producing more than 3.7 Million square km of data thus far. This wealth of experience has led to advances in the collection, processing, and evaluation of high-altitude (20,000 - 35,000 ft) airborne gravity data. This presentation will highlight the most important practical and theoretical advances of the GRAV-D project, giving an introduction to each. Examples of innovation include: 1. Use of navigation grade inertial measurement unit data and precise lever arm measurements for positioning; 2. New quality control tests and software for near real-time analysis of data in the field; 3. Increased accuracy of gravity post-processing by reexamining assumptions and simplifications that were inconsistent with a goal of 1 mGal precision; and 4. Better final data evaluation through crossovers, additional statistics, and inclusion of airborne data into harmonic models that use EGM08 as a base model. The increases in data quality that resulted from implementation of the above advances (and others) will be shown with a case study of the GRAV-D 2008 southern Alaska survey near Anchorage, over Cook Inlet. The case study's statistics and comparisons to global models illustrate the impact that these advances have had on the final airborne gravity data quality. Finally, the presentation will summarize the best practices identified by the project from its last five years of experience.

Adaptation of a Hyperspectral Atmospheric Correction Algorithm for Multi-spectral Ocean Color Data in Coastal Waters. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Bo-Cai; Montes, Marcos J.; Davis, Curtiss O.

2003-01-01

This SIMBIOS contract supports several activities over its three-year time-span. These include certain computational aspects of atmospheric correction, including the modification of our hyperspectral atmospheric correction algorithm Tafkaa for various multi-spectral instruments, such as SeaWiFS, MODIS, and GLI. Additionally, since absorbing aerosols are becoming common in many coastal areas, we are making the model calculations to incorporate various absorbing aerosol models into tables used by our Tafkaa atmospheric correction algorithm. Finally, we have developed the algorithms to use MODIS data to characterize thin cirrus effects on aerosol retrieval.

[25 years of the DRG-based health-financing system in Hungary].

PubMed

Babarczy, Balázs; Gyenes, Péter; Imre, László

2015-07-19

After a thourough development phase, a new system of health financing was introduced in Hungary in 1993. One of the cornerstones of the system was the financing of acute hospital care through Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs). This method was part of a comprehensive healthcare model, elaborated and published around 1990 by experts of Gyógyinfok, a public institute. The health financing system that was finally introduced reflcted in large part this theoretical model, while the current Hungarian system differs from it in some important respects. The objective of this article is to identify these points of divergence.

Robotics and Virtual Reality for Cultural Heritage Digitization and Fruition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calisi, D.; Cottefoglie, F.; D'Agostini, L.; Giannone, F.; Nenci, F.; Salonia, P.; Zaratti, M.; Ziparo, V. A.

2017-05-01

In this paper we present our novel approach for acquiring and managing digital models of archaeological sites, and the visualization techniques used to showcase them. In particular, we will demonstrate two technologies: our robotic system for digitization of archaeological sites (DigiRo) result of over three years of efforts by a group of cultural heritage experts, computer scientists and roboticists, and our cloud-based archaeological information system (ARIS). Finally we describe the viewers we developed to inspect and navigate the 3D models: a viewer for the web (ROVINA Web Viewer) and an immersive viewer for Virtual Reality (ROVINA VR Viewer).

The transition from medical student to doctor: perceptions of final year students and preregistration house officers related to expected learning outcomes.

PubMed

Lempp, H; Seabrook, M; Cochrane, M; Rees, J

2005-03-01

In this prospective qualitative study over 12 months, we evaluated the educational and clinical effectiveness of a new final year undergraduate programme in a London medical school (Guy's, King's and St Thomas'). A stratified sample of 17/360 final year students were interviewed four times, and the content was assessed against 32 amalgamated learning outcomes identified in 1997 in The New Doctor. At the beginning of the preregistration year, eight of the learning outcomes were already met, 10 partly, eight remained to be attained and for six, insufficient evidence existed. Preregistration house officers who have been through the final year student house officer programme expressed competence in many of the outcomes of the General Medical Council's New Doctor. The study identified areas such as prescribing where further developments are needed and will help in planning the new foundation programme.

The influence of acculturation on breast-feeding initiation and duration in low-income women in the US.

PubMed

Sussner, Katarina M; Lindsay, Ana C; Peterson, Karen E

2008-09-01

While the 'immigrant health paradox' posits better health behaviours and outcomes for immigrants upon arrival to the US, research suggests that this advantage may deteriorate over time. This study analysed the relationship of acculturation and breast-feeding initiation and duration among a sample of predominantly Latina, low-income women in the US. The four measures of acculturation included: mother's nativity (foreign born vs US born), mother's parents' nativity (foreign born vs US born), years of US residence (<8 years vs > or =8 years) and a dichotomous measure of language acculturation adapted from three items on Marin's acculturation scale (preferred language spoken at home, reading language and writing language) as exclusive use of native language versus non-exclusive use (mixed or English only) (Marin et al., 1987; Marin & Gamba, 1996). Final multivariable models showed that mothers who exclusively used their native language were more likely to initiate breast-feeding as well as breast-feed for longer duration compared with mothers with non-exclusive use, whereas years of US residence and mother's nativity were not significantly associated with breast-feeding initiation or duration. Mother's parents' nativity also emerged as a significant predictor of breast-feeding duration, both within final models for immigrants and across study participants. Programmes providing nutrition education to low-income women may wish to consider the role of language as an important determinant of breast-feeding. The role of mother's parents' nativity on breast-feeding practices deserves exploration in future studies, as the cultural practices taught by family members born outside the US may exert strong pressure within immigrant families now living in the US.

History of labour market attachment as a determinant of health status: a 12-year follow-up of the Northern Swedish Cohort

PubMed Central

Waenerlund, Anna-Karin; Gustafsson, Per E; Hammarström, Anne; Virtanen, Pekka

2014-01-01

Objective The present study aims at using trajectory analysis to measure labour market attachment (LMA) over 12 years and at examining whether labour market tracks relate to perceived health status. Design Data were retrieved from a 26-year prospective cohort study, the Northern Swedish Cohort. Setting and participants All ninth grade students (n=1083) within the municipality of Luleå in northern Sweden were included in the baseline investigation in 1981. The vast majority (94%) of the original cohort participated at the fourth follow-up. In this study, 969 participants were included. Measures Perceived health status (psychological distress and non-optimal self-rated health) at age 42 and the data obtained from questionnaires. Results We have identified four tracks in relation to LMA across the 12-year period: ‘permanent’, ‘high level’, ‘strengthening’ and ‘poor level’ of attachment. LMA history relates to psychological distress. High level (OR 1.55 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.27)), strengthening (OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.93)) and poor attachment (OR 3.14 (95% CI 2.10 to 4.70) involve higher OR for psychological distress compared with permanent attachment. The overall p value remained significant in the final model (p=0.001). Analyses regarding non-optimal self-rated health displayed a similar pattern but this was not significant in the final model. Conclusions Our results suggest that health status in mid-life, particularly psychological distress, is related to patterns of LMA history, to a large part independently of other social risk factors and previous health. Consideration of heterogeneity and time in LMA might be important when analysing associations with perceived health. PMID:24531448

History of labour market attachment as a determinant of health status: a 12-year follow-up of the Northern Swedish Cohort.

PubMed

Waenerlund, Anna-Karin; Gustafsson, Per E; Hammarström, Anne; Virtanen, Pekka

2014-02-14

The present study aims at using trajectory analysis to measure labour market attachment (LMA) over 12 years and at examining whether labour market tracks relate to perceived health status. Data were retrieved from a 26-year prospective cohort study, the Northern Swedish Cohort. All ninth grade students (n=1083) within the municipality of Luleå in northern Sweden were included in the baseline investigation in 1981. The vast majority (94%) of the original cohort participated at the fourth follow-up. In this study, 969 participants were included. Perceived health status (psychological distress and non-optimal self-rated health) at age 42 and the data obtained from questionnaires. We have identified four tracks in relation to LMA across the 12-year period: 'permanent', 'high level', 'strengthening' and 'poor level' of attachment. LMA history relates to psychological distress. High level (OR 1.55 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.27)), strengthening (OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.93)) and poor attachment (OR 3.14 (95% CI 2.10 to 4.70) involve higher OR for psychological distress compared with permanent attachment. The overall p value remained significant in the final model (p=0.001). Analyses regarding non-optimal self-rated health displayed a similar pattern but this was not significant in the final model. Our results suggest that health status in mid-life, particularly psychological distress, is related to patterns of LMA history, to a large part independently of other social risk factors and previous health. Consideration of heterogeneity and time in LMA might be important when analysing associations with perceived health.

Modeling phytoplankton community in reservoirs. A comparison between taxonomic and functional groups-based models.

PubMed

Di Maggio, Jimena; Fernández, Carolina; Parodi, Elisa R; Diaz, M Soledad; Estrada, Vanina

2016-01-01

In this paper we address the formulation of two mechanistic water quality models that differ in the way the phytoplankton community is described. We carry out parameter estimation subject to differential-algebraic constraints and validation for each model and comparison between models performance. The first approach aggregates phytoplankton species based on their phylogenetic characteristics (Taxonomic group model) and the second one, on their morpho-functional properties following Reynolds' classification (Functional group model). The latter approach takes into account tolerance and sensitivity to environmental conditions. The constrained parameter estimation problems are formulated within an equation oriented framework, with a maximum likelihood objective function. The study site is Paso de las Piedras Reservoir (Argentina), which supplies water for consumption for 450,000 population. Numerical results show that phytoplankton morpho-functional groups more closely represent each species growth requirements within the group. Each model performance is quantitatively assessed by three diagnostic measures. Parameter estimation results for seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton community and main biogeochemical variables for a one-year time horizon are presented and compared for both models, showing the functional group model enhanced performance. Finally, we explore increasing nutrient loading scenarios and predict their effect on phytoplankton dynamics throughout a one-year time horizon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.; Venditti, Chris

2016-01-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event. PMID:27092007

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J; Venditti, Chris

2016-05-03

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Manabu; Benton, Michael J.

2016-05-01

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.

Problem-based learning versus a traditional educational methodology: a comparison of preclinical and clinical periodontics performance.

PubMed

Rich, Sandra K; Keim, Robert G; Shuler, Charles F

2005-06-01

To evaluate efficacy of a problem-based learning (PBL) pedagogy in preclinical and clinical teaching, test scores of 234 undergraduate dental students from the conventionally taught classes of 2003 and 2004 were compared with scores of 274 dental students from the PBL classes of 2005 and 2006. Although the groups' means were close together, t-test analysis of scores revealed that PBL students performed significantly better than traditional (TRAD) students on midterm (p=.0001) and final (p=.015) examinations taken on student partner/mock patients. ANOVA comparing the classes with each other showed significant differences for the midterm and final, but not for the clinical examination. Further multiple comparison tests (Tukey HSD) for the midterm and final revealed that differences specifically reflected superior performance of PBL classes against one of the TRAD classes (2004). There was no difference in performance between PBL (n=134) and TRAD (n=233) students on examinations taken with actual clinical patients who were undergoing nonsurgical periodontal treatment. Over a two-year period, PBL students rated their program instructors at a mean of 4.41 on a Likert-type scale of 1 (not helpful) to 5 (outstanding). The program provides a PBL model for teaching preclinical and clinical skills supported by a four-year evaluation of manual skills outcomes.

A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

2009-12-01

In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic processes seem to dominate and determine the primary production and the white shrimp stock productivity as well.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

Medicare Program; Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System for Federal Fiscal Year 2016. Final rule.

PubMed

2015-08-06

This final rule updates the prospective payment rates for inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs) for federal fiscal year (FY) 2016 as required by the statute. As required by section 1886(j)(5) of the Act, this rule includes the classification and weighting factors for the IRF PPS's case-mix groups and a description of the methodologies and data used in computing the prospective payment rates for FY 2016. This final rule also finalizes policy changes, including the adoption of an IRF-specific market basket that reflects the cost structures of only IRF providers, a 1-year phase-in of the revised wage index changes, a 3-year phase-out of the rural adjustment for certain IRFs, and revisions and updates to the quality reporting program (QRP).

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Development and external validation of a prediction rule for an unfavorable course of late-life depression: A multicenter cohort study.

PubMed

Maarsingh, O R; Heymans, M W; Verhaak, P F; Penninx, B W J H; Comijs, H C

2018-08-01

Given the poor prognosis of late-life depression, it is crucial to identify those at risk. Our objective was to construct and validate a prediction rule for an unfavourable course of late-life depression. For development and internal validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression in Older Persons (NESDO) data. We included participants with a major depressive disorder (MDD) at baseline (n = 270; 60-90 years), assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). For external validation of the model, we used The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) data (n = 197; 50-66 years). The outcome was MDD after 2 years of follow-up, assessed with the CIDI. Candidate predictors concerned sociodemographics, psychopathology, physical symptoms, medication, psychological determinants, and healthcare setting. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and discrimination. 111 subjects (41.1%) had MDD after 2 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of MDD after 2 years were (older) age, (early) onset of depression, severity of depression, anxiety symptoms, comorbid anxiety disorder, fatigue, and loneliness. The final model showed good calibration and reasonable discrimination (AUC of 0.75; 0.70 after external validation). The strongest individual predictor was severity of depression (AUC of 0.69; 0.68 after external validation). The model was developed and validated in The Netherlands, which could affect the cross-country generalizability. Based on rather simple clinical indicators, it is possible to predict the 2-year course of MDD. The prediction rule can be used for monitoring MDD patients and identifying those at risk of an unfavourable outcome. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stacked dielectric elastomer actuator (SDEA): casting process, modeling and active vibration isolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhuoyuan; Sheng, Meiping; Wang, Minqing; Dong, Pengfei; Li, Bo; Chen, Hualing

2018-07-01

In this paper, a novel fabrication process of stacked dielectric elastomer actuator (SDEA) is developed based on casting process and elastomeric electrode. The so-fabricated SDEA benefits the advantages of homogenous and reproducible properties as well as little performance degradation after one-year use. A coupling model of SDEA is established by taking into consideration of the elastomeric electrode and the calculated results agree with the experiments. Based on the model, we attain the method to optimize the SDEA’s parameters. Finally, the SDEA is used as an isolator in active vibration isolation system to verify the feasibility in dynamic application. And the experiment results show a great prospect for SDEA in such application.

Variability and predictability of finals times of elite rowers.

PubMed

Smith, Tiaki Brett; Hopkins, Will G

2011-11-01

Little is known about the competitive performance characteristics of elite rowers. We report here analyses of performance times for finalists in world-class regattas from 1999 to 2009. The data were official race times for the 10 men's and 7 women's single and crewed boat classes, each with ∼ 200-300 different boats competing in 1-33 of the 46 regattas at 18 venues. A linear mixed model of race times for each boat class provided estimates of variability as coefficients of variation after adjustment for means of calendar year, level of competition (Olympics, world championship, World Cup), venue, and level of final (A, B, C, …). Mean performance was substantially slower between consecutive levels of competition (1.5%, 2.7%) and consecutive levels of finals (∼ 1%-2%). Differences in the effects of venue and of environmental conditions, estimated as variability in mean race time between venues and finals, were extremely large (∼ 3.0%). Within-boat race-to-race variability for A finalists was 1.1% for single sculls and 0.9% for crewed boats, with little difference between men and women and only a small increase in lower-level finalists. Predictability of performance, expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients, showed considerable differences between boat classes, but the mean was high (∼ 0.63), with little difference between crewed and single boats, between men and women, and between within and between years. The race-to-race variability of boat times of ∼ 1.0% is similar to that in comparable endurance sports performed against water or air resistance. Estimates of the smallest important performance enhancement (∼ 0.3%) and the effects of level of competition, level of final, venue, environment, and boat class will help inform investigations of factors affecting elite competitive rowing performance.

Associations of Maternal Weight Gain in Pregnancy With Offspring Cognition in Childhood and Adolescence: Findings From the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

PubMed Central

Gage, Suzanne H.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Tilling, Kate; Fraser, Abigail

2013-01-01

An association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with offspring cognition has been postulated. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a United Kingdom prospective cohort (1990 through the present) with a median of 10 maternal weight measurements in pregnancy. These were used to allocate participants to 2009 Institute of Medicine weight-gain categories and in random effect linear spline models. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment score (age, 4 years; n = 5,832), standardized intelligence quotient assessed by Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (age, 8 years; n = 5,191), and school final-examination results (age, 16 years; n = 7,339). Offspring of women who gained less weight than recommended had a 0.075 standard deviation lower mean School Entry Assessment score (95% confidence interval: −0.127, −0.023) and were less likely to achieve adequate final-examination results (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99) compared with offspring of women who gained as recommended. GWG in early pregnancy (defined as 0–18 weeks on the basis of a knot point at 18 weeks) and midpregnancy (defined as 18–28 weeks on the basis of knot points at 18 and 28 weeks) was positively associated with School Entry Assessment score and intelligence quotient. GWG in late pregnancy (defined as 28 weeks onward on the basis of a knot point at 28 weeks) was positively associated with offspring intelligence quotient and with increased odds of offspring achieving adequate final-examination results in mothers who were overweight prepregnancy. Findings support small positive associations between GWG and offspring cognitive development, which may have lasting effects on educational attainment up to age 16 years. PMID:23388581

Associations of maternal weight gain in pregnancy with offspring cognition in childhood and adolescence: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

PubMed

Gage, Suzanne H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate; Fraser, Abigail

2013-03-01

An association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with offspring cognition has been postulated. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a United Kingdom prospective cohort (1990 through the present) with a median of 10 maternal weight measurements in pregnancy. These were used to allocate participants to 2009 Institute of Medicine weight-gain categories and in random effect linear spline models. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment score (age, 4 years; n = 5,832), standardized intelligence quotient assessed by Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (age, 8 years; n = 5,191), and school final-examination results (age, 16 years; n = 7,339). Offspring of women who gained less weight than recommended had a 0.075 standard deviation lower mean School Entry Assessment score (95% confidence interval: -0.127, -0.023) and were less likely to achieve adequate final-examination results (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99) compared with offspring of women who gained as recommended. GWG in early pregnancy (defined as 0-18 weeks on the basis of a knot point at 18 weeks) and midpregnancy (defined as 18-28 weeks on the basis of knot points at 18 and 28 weeks) was positively associated with School Entry Assessment score and intelligence quotient. GWG in late pregnancy (defined as 28 weeks onward on the basis of a knot point at 28 weeks) was positively associated with offspring intelligence quotient and with increased odds of offspring achieving adequate final-examination results in mothers who were overweight prepregnancy. Findings support small positive associations between GWG and offspring cognitive development, which may have lasting effects on educational attainment up to age 16 years.

Regulatory impact analysis and regulatory support document: Control of air pollution; determination of significance for nonroad sources and emission standards for new nonroad compression-ignition engines at or above 37 kilowatts (50 horsepower). Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trimble, T.; North, D.R.; Green, K.A.H.

1994-05-27

The regulatory impact analysis and support document provides additional information in support of the Final Rulemaking (FRM). This FRM will regulate all new nonroad compression-ignition engines greater than or equal to 37 kilowatts (50 hp), except engines which propel or are used on marine vessels, aircraft engines, engines which propel locomotives, and engines regulated by the Mining, Safety, and Health Administration. The regulated engines are hereafter referred to as nonroad large CI engines. The goal of this regulation is to substantially reduce NOx emission and smoke from nonroad large CI engines beginning in the 1996 model year.

Seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated climate factors in 4 provinces in Vietnam from 1994 to 2013.

PubMed

Lee, Hu Suk; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Nam, Vu Sinh; Lee, Mihye; Won, Sungho; Duc, Phuc Pham; Grace, Delia

2017-03-20

In Vietnam, dengue fever (DF) is still a leading cause of hospitalization. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonality and association with climate factors (temperature and precipitation) on the incidences of DF in four provinces where the highest incidence rates were observed from 1994 to 2013 in Vietnam. Incidence rates (per 100,000) were calculated on a monthly basis from during the study period. The seasonal-decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) was used in order to assess the trend and seasonality of DF. In addition, a seasonal cycle subseries (SCS) plot and univariate negative binomial regression (NBR) model were used to evaluate the monthly variability with statistical analysis. Lastly, a generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to assess the relationship between monthly incidence rates and weather factors (temperature and precipitation). We found that increased incidence rates were observed in the second half of each year (from May through December) which is the rainy season in each province. In Hanoi, the final model showed that 1 °C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 13% in the monthly incidence rate of DF. In Khanh Hoa, the final model displayed that 1 °C increase in temperature corresponded to an increase of 17% while 100 mm increase in precipitation corresponded to an increase of 11% of DF incidence rate. For Ho Chi Minh City, none of variables were significant in the model. In An Giang, the final model showed that 100 mm increase of precipitation in the preceding and same months corresponded to an increase of 30% and 22% of DF incidence rate. Our findings provide insight into understanding the seasonal pattern and associated climate risk factors.

76 FR 70227 - Medicare Program; End-Stage Renal Disease Prospective Payment System and Quality Incentive...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-10

...This final rule updates and makes certain revisions to the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) prospective payment system (PPS) for calendar year (CY) 2012. We are also finalizing the interim final rule with comment period published on April 6, 2011, regarding the transition budget-neutrality adjustment under the ESRD PPS,. This final rule also sets forth requirements for the ESRD quality incentive program (QIP) for payment years (PYs) 2013 and 2014. In addition, this final rule revises the ambulance fee schedule regulations to conform to statutory changes. This final rule also revises the definition of durable medical equipment (DME) by adding a 3-year minimum lifetime requirement (MLR) that must be met by an item or device in order to be considered durable for the purpose of classifying the item under the Medicare benefit category for DME. Finally, this final rule implements certain provisions of section 154 of the Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act of 2008 (MIPPA) related to the durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics and supplies (DMEPOS) Competitive Acquisition Program and responds to comments received on an interim final rule published January 16, 2009, that implemented these provisions of MIPPA effective April 18, 2009. (See the Table of Contents for a listing of the specific issues addressed in this final rule.)

An audit of the current U.S. Department of Agriculture frame size scoring system.

PubMed

Reinhardt, C D; Busby, W D

2014-06-01

Feedlot and carcass data from steers (n = 16,700) and heifers (n = 6,357) originating from 16 different states and fed in 17 feedlots located in southwest Iowa were used to evaluate the accuracy of the USDA frame score for predicting final BW of fed cattle. Frame score was recorded by USDA or state personnel for cattle either before leaving the state of origin or on arrival at the terminal feedlot. Mixed model procedures were used to investigate relationships between USDA frame score and measures of live performance and carcass traits. Other fixed effects included in the model included USDA muscle score, sex, age classification on feedlot entry (calf: ≤270 d of age, yearling: 271-365 d of age, and long yearling: >365 d of age), BCS on feedlot arrival, number of treatments for respiratory disease, hide color, and site of frame or muscle scoring; the interactions of sex × frame score and hide color × frame score were also included; fat thickness was included as a fixed effect (covariate) in the analysis of ADG, final BW, days on feed, LM area, marbling score, and quality grade. Random effects included in the model were year of feedlot arrival and feedlot in which cattle were fed. The system accurately projects the minimum target final BW for large frame steers and heifers; however, the final BW of the smallest medium frame steers and heifers exceeds the target minimum final BW by 35 and 40 kg, respectively. When frame score was assigned post facto based on actual final BW (adjusted to 1.27 cm fat thickness), it was determined that large frame was over-assigned by graders (62 vs. 35% for steers and 54 vs. 32% for heifers, actual score vs. postharvest score, respectively), medium frame was underassigned (37 vs. 51% and 46 vs. 58% for steers and heifers), and small frame was underassigned (0.7 vs. 15% and 0.6 vs. 10% for steers and heifers; K = 0.01, P < 0.01). Across sexes, of the cattle assigned to small, medium, or large frame score, 40, 59, and 43% actually had final BW (adjusted to 1.27 cm fat thickness) within the guidelines for the target final BW of each of the frame scores (P < 0.01). The present frame score system accurately reflects the modern feedlot cattle population; however, adjustments in the assignment of frame scores to reflect changes in technologies and final weights may be warranted.

30 Years on: How the Neurodevelopmental Hypothesis of Schizophrenia Morphed Into the Developmental Risk Factor Model of Psychosis.

PubMed

Murray, Robin M; Bhavsar, Vishal; Tripoli, Giada; Howes, Oliver

2017-10-21

At its re-birth 30 years ago, the neurodevelopment hypothesis of schizophrenia focussed on aberrant genes and early neural hazards, but then it grew to include ideas concerning aberrant synaptic pruning in adolescence. The hypothesis had its own stormy development and it endured some difficult teenage years when a resurgence of interest in neurodegeneration threatened its survival. In early adult life, it over-reached itself with some reductionists claiming that schizophrenia was simply a neurodevelopmental disease. However, by age 30, the hypothesis has matured sufficiently to incorporated childhood and adult adversity, urban living and migration, as well as heavy cannabis use, as important risk factors. Thus, it morphed into the developmental risk factor model of psychosis and integrated new evidence concerning dysregulated striatal dopamine as the final step on the pathway linking risk factors to psychotic symptoms. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Numerical conformal mapping: Methods, applications, and theory. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeLillo, T.K.

1995-11-01

Section 1 of this report, briefly summarizes research performed under this grant during the first two years 1992 to 1994 and makes some overall remarks. Section 2, summarizes research performed during the final year from September, 1994 through May 31, 1995, more fully. The main achievement of the last period has been the application of numerical conformed mapping to the solution of the biharmonic equation. Section 3, summarizes travel, meetings, and other expenses supported by this grant during the final year.

Desiccation of a Sessile Drop of Blood: Cracks Formation and Delamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobac, Benjamin; Brutin, David

2011-11-01

The evaporation of drops of biological fluids has been studied since few years du to several applications in medical fields such as medical tests, drug screening, biostabilization... The evaporation of a drop of whole blood leads to the formation of final typical pattern of cracks. Flow motion, adhesion, gelation and fracturation all occur during the evaporation of this complex matter. During the drying, a sol-gel transition develops. The drying kinetics is explained by a simple model of evaporation taking account of the evolution of the gelation front. The system solidifies and when stresses are too important, cracks nucleate. The cracks formation and the structure of the crack pattern are investigated. The initial crack spacing is found in good agreement with the implementation in open geometry of the model of cracks formation induced by evaporation proposed by Allain and Limat. Finally, the drop is still drying after the end of the formation of cracks which leads, like in the situation of colloid suspensions, to the observation of a delamination phenomenon.

An integrated fuzzy approach for strategic alliance partner selection in third-party logistics.

PubMed

Erkayman, Burak; Gundogar, Emin; Yilmaz, Aysegul

2012-01-01

Outsourcing some of the logistic activities is a useful strategy for companies in recent years. This makes it possible for firms to concentrate on their main issues and processes and presents facility to improve logistics performance, to reduce costs, and to improve quality. Therefore provider selection and evaluation in third-party logistics become important activities for companies. Making a strategic decision like this is significantly hard and crucial. In this study we proposed a fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach to effectively select the most appropriate provider. First we identify the provider selection criteria and build the hierarchical structure of decision model. After building the hierarchical structure we determined the selection criteria weights by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique. Then we applied fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to obtain final rankings for providers. And finally an illustrative example is also given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

An Integrated Fuzzy Approach for Strategic Alliance Partner Selection in Third-Party Logistics

PubMed Central

Gundogar, Emin; Yılmaz, Aysegul

2012-01-01

Outsourcing some of the logistic activities is a useful strategy for companies in recent years. This makes it possible for firms to concentrate on their main issues and processes and presents facility to improve logistics performance, to reduce costs, and to improve quality. Therefore provider selection and evaluation in third-party logistics become important activities for companies. Making a strategic decision like this is significantly hard and crucial. In this study we proposed a fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach to effectively select the most appropriate provider. First we identify the provider selection criteria and build the hierarchical structure of decision model. After building the hierarchical structure we determined the selection criteria weights by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique. Then we applied fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to obtain final rankings for providers. And finally an illustrative example is also given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:23365520

Secondary electron emission and its role in the space environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Němeček, Z.; Pavlů, J.; Richterová, I.; Šafránková, J.; Vaverka, J.

2018-01-01

The role of dust in the space environment is of increasing interest in recent years and also the fast development of fusion devices with a magnetic confinement brought new issues in the plasma-surface interaction. Among other processes, secondary electron emission plays an important role for dust charging in interplanetary space and its importance increases at and above the surfaces of airless bodies like planets, moons, comets or asteroids. A similar situation can be found in many industrial applications where the dust is a final product or an unintentional impurity. The present paper reviews the progress in laboratory investigations of the secondary emission process as well as an evolution of the modeling of the interaction of energetic electrons with dust grains of different materials and sizes. The results of the model are discussed in view of latest laboratory simulations and they are finally applied on the estimation of an interaction of the solar wind and magnetospheric plasmas with the dust attached to or levitating above the lunar surface.

Constructing and Evaluating a Validity Argument for the Final-Year Ward Simulation Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Till, Hettie; Ker, Jean; Myford, Carol; Stirling, Kevin; Mires, Gary

2015-01-01

The authors report final-year ward simulation data from the University of Dundee Medical School. Faculty who designed this assessment intend for the final score to represent an individual senior medical student's level of clinical performance. The results are included in each student's portfolio as one source of evidence of the student's…

Forecasting Kp from solar wind data: input parameter study using 3-hour averages and 3-hour range values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus; Matzka, Jürgen; Shprits, Yuri

2017-11-01

We have developed neural network models that predict Kp from upstream solar wind data. We study the importance of various input parameters, starting with the magnetic component Bz, particle density n, and velocity V and then adding total field B and the By component. As we also notice a seasonal and UT variation in average Kp we include functions of day-of-year and UT. Finally, as Kp is a global representation of the maximum range of geomagnetic variation over 3-hour UT intervals we conclude that sudden changes in the solar wind can have a big effect on Kp, even though it is a 3-hour value. Therefore, 3-hour solar wind averages will not always appropriately represent the solar wind condition, and we introduce 3-hour maxima and minima values to some degree address this problem. We find that introducing total field B and 3-hour maxima and minima, derived from 1-minute solar wind data, have a great influence on the performance. Due to the low number of samples for high Kp values there can be considerable variation in predicted Kp for different networks with similar validation errors. We address this issue by using an ensemble of networks from which we use the median predicted Kp. The models (ensemble of networks) provide prediction lead times in the range 20-90 min given by the time it takes a solar wind structure to travel from L1 to Earth. Two models are implemented that can be run with real time data: (1) IRF-Kp-2017-h3 uses the 3-hour averages of the solar wind data and (2) IRF-Kp-2017 uses in addition to the averages, also the minima and maxima values. The IRF-Kp-2017 model has RMS error of 0.55 and linear correlation of 0.92 based on an independent test set with final Kp covering 2 years using ACE Level 2 data. The IRF-Kp-2017-h3 model has RMSE = 0.63 and correlation = 0.89. We also explore the errors when tested on another two-year period with real-time ACE data which gives RMSE = 0.59 for IRF-Kp-2017 and RMSE = 0.73 for IRF-Kp-2017-h3. The errors as function of Kp and for different years are also studied.

The moderation of resilience on the negative effect of pain on depression and post-traumatic growth in individuals with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Min, Jung-Ah; Lee, Chang-Uk; Hwang, Sung-Il; Shin, Jung-In; Lee, Bum-Suk; Han, Sang-Hoon; Ju, Hye-In; Lee, Cha-Yeon; Lee, Chul; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2014-01-01

To determine the moderating effect of resilience on the negative effects of chronic pain on depression and post-traumatic growth. Community-dwelling individuals with SCI (n = 37) were recruited at short-term admission for yearly regular health examination. Participants completed self-rating standardized questionnaires measuring pain, resilience, depression and post-traumatic growth. Hierarchical linear regression analysis was performed to identify the moderating effect of resilience on the relationships of pain with depression and post-traumatic growth after controlling for relevant covariates. In the regression model of depression, the effect of pain severity on depression was decreased (β was changed from 0.47 to 0.33) after entering resilience into the model. In the final model, both pain and resilience were significant independent predictors for depression (β = 0.33, p = 0.038 and β = -0.47, p = 0.012, respectively). In the regression model of post-traumatic growth, the effect of pain severity became insignificant after entering resilience into the model. In the final model, resilience was a significant predictor (β = 0.51, p = 0.016). Resilience potentially mitigated the negative effects of pain. Moreover, it independently contributed to reduced depression and greater post-traumatic growth. Our findings suggest that resilience might provide a potential target for intervention in SCI individuals.

General Motors LLC Final Project Report: Improving Energy Efficiency by Developing Components for Distributed Cooling and Heating Based on Thermal Comfort Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bozeman, Jeffrey; Chen, Kuo-Huey

2014-12-09

On November 3, 2009, General Motors (GM) accepted U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Cooperative Agreement award number DE-EE0000014 from the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). GM was selected to execute a three-year cost shared research and development project on Solid State Energy Conversion for Vehicular Heating, Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) and for Waste Heat Recovery.

Operational model evaluation for particulate matter in Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Bianconi, Roberto; Pirovano, Guido; Matthias, Volker; Vautard, Robert; Moran, Michael D.; Wyat Appel, K.; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Chemel, Charles; Coll, Isabelle; Ferreira, Joana; Forkel, Renate; Francis, Xavier V.; Grell, Georg; Grossi, Paola; Hansen, Ayoe B.; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Prank, Marje; Sartelet, Karine N.; Schaap, Martijn; Silver, Jeremy D.; Sokhi, Ranjeet S.; Vira, Julius; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Yarwood, Greg; Zhang, Junhua; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Galmarini, Stefano

2012-06-01

Ten state-of-the-science regional air quality (AQ) modeling systems have been applied to continental-scale domains in North America and Europe for full-year simulations of 2006 in the context of Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), whose main goals are model inter-comparison and evaluation. Standardised modeling outputs from each group have been shared on the web-distributed ENSEMBLE system, which allows statistical and ensemble analyses to be performed. In this study, the one-year model simulations are inter-compared and evaluated with a large set of observations for ground-level particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and its chemical components. Modeled concentrations of gaseous PM precursors, SO2 and NO2, have also been evaluated against observational data for both continents. Furthermore, modeled deposition (dry and wet) and emissions of several species relevant to PM are also inter-compared. The unprecedented scale of the exercise (two continents, one full year, fifteen modeling groups) allows for a detailed description of AQ model skill and uncertainty with respect to PM. Analyses of PM10 yearly time series and mean diurnal cycle show a large underestimation throughout the year for the AQ models included in AQMEII. The possible causes of PM bias, including errors in the emissions and meteorological inputs (e.g., wind speed and precipitation), and the calculated deposition are investigated. Further analysis of the coarse PM components, PM2.5 and its major components (SO4, NH4, NO3, elemental carbon), have also been performed, and the model performance for each component evaluated against measurements. Finally, the ability of the models to capture high PM concentrations has been evaluated by examining two separate PM2.5 episodes in Europe and North America. A large variability among models in predicting emissions, deposition, and concentration of PM and its precursors during the episodes has been found. Major challenges still remain with regards to identifying and eliminating the sources of PM bias in the models. Although PM2.5 was found to be much better estimated by the models than PM10, no model was found to consistently match the observations for all locations throughout the entire year.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seapan, M.; Crynes, B.L.; Dale, S.

The objectives of this study were to analyze alternate crudes kinetic hydrotreatment data in the literature, develop a mathematical model for interpretation of these data, develop an experimental procedure and apparatus to collect accurate kinetic data, and finally, to combine the model and experimental data to develop a general model which, with a few experimental parameters, could be used in design of future hydrotreatment processes. These objectives were to cover a four year program (1980 to 1984) and were subjective to sufficient funding. Only partial funding has been available thus far to cover activities for two years. A hydrotreatment datamore » base is developed which contains over 2000 citations, stored in a microcomputer. About 50% of these are reviewed, classified and can be identified by feedstock, catalyst, reactor type and other process characteristics. Tests of published hydrodesulfurization data indicate the problems with simple n-th order, global kinetic models, and point to the value of developing intrinsic reaction kinetic models to describe the reaction processes. A Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic model coupled with a plug flow reactor design equation has been developed and used for published data evaluation. An experimental system and procedure have been designed and constructed, which can be used for kinetic studies. 30 references, 4 tables.« less

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled General Circulation Model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-09-10

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Sources of Variability in Performance Times at the World Orienteering Championships.

PubMed

Hébert-Losier, Kim; Platt, Simon; Hopkins, William G

2015-07-01

An improvement equal to 0.3 of the typical variation in an elite athlete's race-to-race performance estimates the smallest worthwhile enhancement, which has not yet been determined for orienteers. Moreover, much of the research in high-performance orienteering has focused on physical and cognitive aspects, although course characteristics might influence race performance. Analysis of race data provides insights into environmental effects and other aspects of competitive performance. Our aim was to examine such factors in relation to World Orienteering Championships performances. We used mixed linear modelling to analyze finishing times from the three qualification rounds and final round of the sprint, middle-distance, and long-distance disciplines of World Orienteering Championships from 2006 to 2013. Models accounted for race length, distance climbed, number of controls, home advantage, venue identity, round (qualification final), athlete identity, and athlete age. Within-athlete variability (coefficient of variation, mean ± SD) was lower in the final (4.9% ± 1.4%) than in the qualification (7.3% ± 2.4%) rounds and provided estimates of smallest worthwhile enhancements of 1.0%-3.5%. The home advantage was clear in most disciplines, with distance climbed particularly impacting sprint performances. Small to very large between-venue differences were apparent. Performance predictability expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients was extremely high within years and was high to very high between years. Age of peak performance ranged from 27 to 31 yr. Our results suggest that elite orienteers should focus on training and strategies that enhance performance by at least 1.0%-3.5% for smallest worthwhile enhancement. Moreover, as greater familiarity with the terrain likely mediated the home advantage, foreign athletes would benefit from training in nations hosting the World Orienteering Championships for familiarization.

Learning Environment, Preparedness and Satisfaction in Osteopathy in Europe: The PreSS Study

PubMed Central

Luciani, Emanuele; van Dun, Patrick L. S.; Esteves, Jorge Eduardo; Lunghi, Christian; Petracca, Marco; Papa, Liria; Merdy, Olivier; Jäkel, Anne; Cerritelli, Francesco

2015-01-01

Objective 1) to assess the preparedness to practice and satisfaction in learning environment amongst new graduates from European osteopathic institutions; 2) to compare the results of preparedness to practice and satisfaction in learning environment between and within countries where osteopathy is regulated and where regulation is still to be achieved; 3) to identify possible correlations between learning environment and preparedness to practice. Method Osteopathic education providers of full-time education located in Europe were enrolled, and their final year students were contacted to complete a survey. Measures used were: Dundee Ready Educational Environment Measure (DREEM), the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and a demographic questionnaire. Scores were compared across institutions using one-way ANOVA and generalised linear model. Results Nine European osteopathic education institutions participated in the study (4 located in Italy, 2 in the UK, 1 in France, 1 in Belgium and 1 in the Netherlands) and 243 (77%) of their final-year students completed the survey. The DREEM total score mean was 121.4 (SEM: 1.66) whilst the AAMC was 17.58 (SEM:0.35). A generalised linear model found a significant association between not-regulated countries and total score as well as subscales DREEM scores (p<0.001). Learning environment and preparedness to practice were significantly positively correlated (r=0.76; p<0.01). Discussion A perceived higher level of preparedness and satisfaction was found amongst students from osteopathic institutions located in countries without regulation compared to those located in countries where osteopathy is regulated; however, all institutions obtained a ‘more positive than negative’ result. Moreover, in general, cohorts with fewer than 20 students scored significantly higher compared to larger student cohorts. Finally, an overall positive correlation between students’ preparedness and satisfaction were found across all institutions recruited. PMID:26103514

Learning Environment, Preparedness and Satisfaction in Osteopathy in Europe: The PreSS Study.

PubMed

Luciani, Emanuele; van Dun, Patrick L S; Esteves, Jorge Eduardo; Lunghi, Christian; Petracca, Marco; Papa, Liria; Merdy, Olivier; Jäkel, Anne; Cerritelli, Francesco

2015-01-01

1) to assess the preparedness to practice and satisfaction in learning environment amongst new graduates from European osteopathic institutions; 2) to compare the results of preparedness to practice and satisfaction in learning environment between and within countries where osteopathy is regulated and where regulation is still to be achieved; 3) to identify possible correlations between learning environment and preparedness to practice. Osteopathic education providers of full-time education located in Europe were enrolled, and their final year students were contacted to complete a survey. Measures used were: Dundee Ready Educational Environment Measure (DREEM), the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and a demographic questionnaire. Scores were compared across institutions using one-way ANOVA and generalised linear model. Nine European osteopathic education institutions participated in the study (4 located in Italy, 2 in the UK, 1 in France, 1 in Belgium and 1 in the Netherlands) and 243 (77%) of their final-year students completed the survey. The DREEM total score mean was 121.4 (SEM: 1.66) whilst the AAMC was 17.58 (SEM:0.35). A generalised linear model found a significant association between not-regulated countries and total score as well as subscales DREEM scores (p<0.001). Learning environment and preparedness to practice were significantly positively correlated (r=0.76; p<0.01). A perceived higher level of preparedness and satisfaction was found amongst students from osteopathic institutions located in countries without regulation compared to those located in countries where osteopathy is regulated; however, all institutions obtained a 'more positive than negative' result. Moreover, in general, cohorts with fewer than 20 students scored significantly higher compared to larger student cohorts. Finally, an overall positive correlation between students' preparedness and satisfaction were found across all institutions recruited.

Medicare program; inpatient psychiatric facilities prospective payment system--update for fiscal year beginning October 1, 2014 (FY 2015). Final rule.

PubMed

2014-08-06

This final rule will update the prospective payment rates for Medicare inpatient hospital services provided by inpatient psychiatric facilities (IPFs). These changes will be applicable to IPF discharges occurring during the fiscal year (FY) beginning October 1, 2014 through September 30, 2015. This final rule will also address implementation of ICD-10-CM and ICD-10-PCS codes; finalize a new methodology for updating the cost of living adjustment (COLA), and finalize new quality measures and reporting requirements under the IPF quality reporting program.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffery B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Bone mineral density loss in relation to the final menstrual period in a multiethnic cohort: results from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN).

PubMed

Greendale, Gail A; Sowers, MaryFran; Han, Weijuan; Huang, Mei-Hua; Finkelstein, Joel S; Crandall, Carolyn J; Lee, Jennifer S; Karlamangla, Arun S

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to describe the time of onset and offset of bone mineral density (BMD) loss relative to the date of the final menstrual period (FMP); the rate and amount of BMD decline during the 5 years before and the 5 years after the FMP; and the independent associations between age at FMP, body mass index (BMI), and race/ethnicity with rates of BMD loss during this time interval. The sample included 242 African American, 384 white, 117 Chinese, and 119 Japanese women, pre- or early perimenopausal at baseline, who had experienced their FMP and for whom an FMP date could be determined. Loess-smoothed curves showed that BMD loss began 1 year before the FMP and decelerated (but did not cease) 2 years after the FMP, at both the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) sites. Piecewise, linear, mixed-effects regression models demonstrated that during the 10-year observation period, at each bone site, the rates and cumulative amounts of bone loss were greatest from 1 year before through 2 years after the FMP, termed the transmenopause. Postmenopausal loss rates, those occurring between 2 and 5 years after the FMP, were less than those observed during transmenopause. Cumulative, 10-year LS BMD loss was 10.6%; 7.38% was lost during the transmenopause. Cumulative FN loss was 9.1%; 5.8% was lost during the transmenopause. Greater BMI and African American heritage were related to slower loss rates, whereas the opposite was true of Japanese and Chinese ancestry. Copyright © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Cross-Curricular Skills Development in Final-Year Dissertation by Active and Collaborative Methodologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Etaio, Iñaki; Churruca, Itziar; Rada, Diego; Miranda, Jonatan; Saracibar, Amaia; Sarrionandia, Fernando; Lasa, Arrate; Simón, Edurne; Labayen, Idoia; Martinez, Olaia

2018-01-01

European Frame for Higher Education has led universities to adapt their teaching schemes. Degrees must train students in competences including specific and cross-curricular skills. Nevertheless, there are important limitations to follow skill improvement through the consecutive academic years. Final-year dissertation (FYD) offers the opportunity…

Testing hypotheses of earthquake occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.

2003-12-01

We present a relatively straightforward likelihood method for testing those earthquake hypotheses that can be stated as vectors of earthquake rate density in defined bins of area, magnitude, and time. We illustrate the method as it will be applied to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Several earthquake forecast models are being developed as part of this project, and additional contributed forecasts are welcome. Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. We would test models in pairs, requiring that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. Thus we offer a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to encourage standardization. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Forecasts would be in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.05 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, would be also be archived and used in the tests. The five-year forecast category may be appropriate for testing hypotheses of stress shadows from large earthquakes. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.05 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. All earthquakes would be counted, and no attempt made to separate foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks. Earthquakes would be considered as point sources located at the hypocenter. For each pair of forecasts, we plan to compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability that the second would be wrongly rejected in favor of the first. Computing alpha and beta requires knowing the theoretical distribution of likelihood scores under each hypothesis, which we will estimate by simulations. Each forecast is given equal status; there is no "null hypothesis" which would be accepted by default. Forecasts and test results would be archived and posted on the RELM web site. The same methods can be applied to any region with adequate monitoring and sufficient earthquakes. If fewer than ten events are forecasted, the likelihood tests may not give definitive results. The tests do force certain requirements on the forecast models. Because the tests are based on absolute rates, stress models must be explicit about how stress increments affect past seismicity rates. Aftershocks of triggered events must be accounted for. Furthermore, the tests are sensitive to magnitude, so forecast models must specify the magnitude distribution of triggered events. Models should account for probable errors in magnitude and location by appropriate smoothing of the probabilities, as the tests will be "cold hearted:" near misses won't count.

Spatial methods for deriving crop rotation history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller-Warrant, George W.; Trippe, Kristin M.; Whittaker, Gerald W.; Anderson, Nicole P.; Sullivan, Clare S.

2017-08-01

Benefits of converting 11 years of remote sensing classification data into cropping history of agricultural fields included measuring lengths of rotation cycles and identifying specific sequences of intervening crops grown between final years of old grass seed stands and establishment of new ones. Spatial and non-spatial methods were complementary. Individual-year classification errors were often correctable in spreadsheet-based non-spatial analysis, whereas their presence in spatial data generally led to exclusion of fields from further analysis. Markov-model testing of non-spatial data revealed that year-to-year cropping sequences did not match average frequencies for transitions among crops grown in western Oregon, implying that rotations into new grass seed stands were influenced by growers' desires to achieve specific objectives. Moran's I spatial analysis of length of time between consecutive grass seed stands revealed that clustering of fields was relatively uncommon, with high and low value clusters only accounting for 7.1 and 6.2% of fields.

Predictors of Long-Term Survival Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: Results from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (The ASCERT Study)

PubMed Central

Shahian, David M.; O'Brien, Sean M.; Sheng, Shubin; Grover, Frederick L.; Mayer, John E.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Weiss, Jocelyn M.; DeLong, Elizabeth R.; Peterson, Eric D.; Weintraub, William S.; Grau-Sepulveda, Maria V.; Klein, Lloyd W.; Shaw, Richard E.; Garratt, Kirk; Moussa, Issam; Shewan, Cynthia M.; Dangas, George D.; Edwards, Fred H.

2012-01-01

Background Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) are limited to in-hospital or 30-day endpoints. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Methods and Results The final study cohort included 348,341 isolated CABG patients ≥ 65 years of age, discharged between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2007 from 917 STS-participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n = 174,506) and validation (n = 173,835) samples. Through linkage with CMS claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1 – 6 year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit four Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 –30 days, 31 – 180 days, 181 days – 2 years, > 2 years. Kaplan-Meier estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at one-year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrell's C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (e.g., emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became non-significant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (e.g., dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes) continued to increase. Conclusions Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated CABG. This provides valuable information for shared decision-making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling. PMID:22361330

A modeling analysis program for the JPL table mountain Io sodium cloud data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, William H.; Goldberg, Bruce A.

1988-01-01

Research in the third and final year of this project is divided into three main areas: (1) completion of data processing and calibration for 34 of the 1981 Region B/C images, selected from the massive JPL sodium cloud data set; (2) identification and examination of the basic features and observed changes in the morphological characteristics of the sodium cloud images; and (3) successful physical interpretation of these basic features and observed changes using the highly developed numerical sodium cloud model at AER. The modeling analysis has led to a number of definite conclusions regarding the local structure of Io's atmosphere, the gas escape mechanism at Io, and the presence of an east-west electric field and a System III longitudinal asymmetry in the plasma torus. Large scale stability, as well as some smaller scale time variability for both the sodium cloud and the structure of the plasma torus over a several year time period are also discussed.

Prediction of early weight gain during psychotropic treatment using a combinatorial model with clinical and genetic markers.

PubMed

Vandenberghe, Frederik; Saigí-Morgui, Núria; Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Quteineh, Lina; Crettol, Séverine; Ansermot, Nicolas; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2016-12-01

Psychotropic drugs can induce significant (>5%) weight gain (WG) already after 1 month of treatment, which is a good predictor for major WG at 3 and 12 months. The large interindividual variability of drug-induced WG can be explained in part by genetic and clinical factors. The aim of this study was to determine whether extensive analysis of genes, in addition to clinical factors, can improve prediction of patients at risk for more than 5% WG at 1 month of treatment. Data were obtained from a 1-year naturalistic longitudinal study, with weight monitoring during weight-inducing psychotropic treatment. A total of 248 Caucasian psychiatric patients, with at least baseline and 1-month weight measures, and with compliance ascertained were included. Results were tested for replication in a second cohort including 32 patients. Age and baseline BMI were associated significantly with strong WG. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final model including genetic (18 genes) and clinical variables was significantly greater than that of the model including clinical variables only (AUCfinal: 0.92, AUCclinical: 0.75, P<0.0001). Predicted accuracy increased by 17% with genetic markers (Accuracyfinal: 87%), indicating that six patients must be genotyped to avoid one misclassified patient. The validity of the final model was confirmed in a replication cohort. Patients predicted before treatment as having more than 5% WG after 1 month of treatment had 4.4% more WG over 1 year than patients predicted to have up to 5% WG (P≤0.0001). These results may help to implement genetic testing before starting psychotropic drug treatment to identify patients at risk of important WG.

T cell transfer model of chronic colitis: concepts, considerations, and tricks of the trade.

PubMed

Ostanin, Dmitry V; Bao, Jianxiong; Koboziev, Iurii; Gray, Laura; Robinson-Jackson, Sherry A; Kosloski-Davidson, Melissa; Price, V Hugh; Grisham, Matthew B

2009-02-01

The inflammatory bowel diseases (Crohn's disease; ulcerative colitis) are idiopathic chronic inflammatory disorders of the intestine and/or colon. A major advancement in our understanding of the pathogenesis of these diseases has been the development of mouse models of chronic gut inflammation. One model that has been instrumental in delineating the immunological mechanisms responsible for the induction as well as regulation of intestinal inflammation is the T cell transfer model of chronic colitis. This paper presents a detailed protocol describing the methods used to induce chronic colitis in mice. Special attention is given to the immunological concepts that explain disease pathogenesis in this model, considerations and potential pitfalls in using this model, and finally different "tricks" that we have learned over the past 12 years that have allowed us to develop a more simplified version of this model of experimental IBD.

Computational Combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Westbrook, C K; Mizobuchi, Y; Poinsot, T J

2004-08-26

Progress in the field of computational combustion over the past 50 years is reviewed. Particular attention is given to those classes of models that are common to most system modeling efforts, including fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, liquid sprays, and turbulent flame models. The developments in combustion modeling are placed into the time-dependent context of the accompanying exponential growth in computer capabilities and Moore's Law. Superimposed on this steady growth, the occasional sudden advances in modeling capabilities are identified and their impacts are discussed. Integration of submodels into system models for spark ignition, diesel and homogeneous charge, compression ignition engines, surfacemore » and catalytic combustion, pulse combustion, and detonations are described. Finally, the current state of combustion modeling is illustrated by descriptions of a very large jet lifted 3D turbulent hydrogen flame with direct numerical simulation and 3D large eddy simulations of practical gas burner combustion devices.« less

Prenatal Sex and Other Preferences for Reproductive Career of Final Year Graduation Girl Students.

PubMed

Kadam, Yugantara R; Nirmale, Prachi; Gore, Alka D

2013-01-01

Marriage of girls just after graduation is common in Western Maharashtra. This study was planned to know the views of final year graduation student towards reproductive carrier. To interact with final year girl students of various streams to know their preferences on various aspects of reproductive carrier and contraceptive awareness. Cross-sectional. Academic institutes of Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad Corporation area. Study-subject: All willing final year Girl students. Married girls. All final year girl students Sampling Technique: Cluster sample Study-Duration: 7 months. Study-tool: Pretested questionnaire. Percentages, Chi-square test. All girls who have responded prefer marrying and having first child at right age. All feel spacing is needed, at least of 2 years. Two children was the most common choice (52.3%). Forty-three percent girls feel male child is must and 52.3% of total girls will like to have sex determination done if required. Total 47.24% girls were unaware about any contraceptive methods but 88.2% girls knew the place of its availability. Most common source of information about contraceptive was school and friends. E-pill was known to 41.5% of girls. All girls felt the need for more information about reproductive health and according to 81.3% right age for it is 15-18 years. Girls have correct reproductive preferences except sex of child. Sex preference and Low contraceptive awareness needs strong intervention.

Trial for the Prevention of Depression (TriPoD) in final-year secondary students: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Perry, Yael; Calear, Alison L; Mackinnon, Andrew; Batterham, Philip J; Licinio, Julio; King, Catherine; Thomsen, Noel; Scott, Jan; Donker, Tara; Merry, Sally; Fleming, Theresa; Stasiak, Karolina; Werner-Seidler, Aliza; Christensen, Helen

2015-10-12

Evidence suggests that current treatments cannot fully alleviate the burden of disease associated with depression but that prevention approaches offer a promising opportunity to further reduce this burden. Adolescence is a critical period in the development of mental illness, and final school examinations are a significant and nearly universal stressor that may act as a trigger for mental health difficulties such as depression. The aim of the present trial is to investigate the impact of SPARX-R, an online, gamified intervention based on cognitive behavioural principles, on the prevention of depression in secondary school students before their final examinations. Government, independent and Catholic secondary schools in New South Wales, Australia, will be recruited to participate in the trial. All students enrolled in their final year of high school (year 12) in participating schools will be invited to participate. To account for possible attrition, the target sample size was set at 1600 participants across 30 schools. Participating schools will be cluster randomised at the school level to receive either SPARX-R or lifeSTYLE, an attention-controlled placebo comparator. The control intervention is an online program aimed at maintaining a healthy lifestyle. The primary outcome will be symptoms of depression, and secondary outcomes will include symptoms of anxiety, suicidal ideation and behaviours, stigma and academic performance. Additional measures of cost-effectiveness, as well as process variables (e.g., adherence, acceptability) and potential predictors of response to treatment, will be collected. Consenting parents will be invited to complete measures regarding their own mental health and expectations for their child. Assessments will be conducted pre- and post-intervention and at 6- and 18-month follow-up. Primary analyses will compare changes in levels of depressive symptomatology for the intervention group relative to the attention control condition using mixed-effects model repeated-measures analyses to account for clustering within schools. This is the first trial of a universal depression prevention intervention delivered to school students in advance of a specific, significant stressor. If found to be effective, this program may offer schools a new approach to preparing students for their final year of schooling. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry identifier: ACTRN12614000316606 . Registered 25 March 2014.

Final Draft Feedback in First-Year Composition: A Case Study of Non-Native English Speaking Students in North America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nash, J. Gail

2012-01-01

Scope and Methods: This dissertation examines final draft feedback in a semester long first-year composition class consisting of both native and non-native speakers of English (NES & NNES) attending university. In addition to examining the teacher's commentary on final drafts and the students' responses to it, this study investigated effects…

Measure in the ESRD QIP for PY 2020. Final rule.

PubMed

2017-08-04

This final rule updates the payment rates used under the prospective payment system (PPS) for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) for fiscal year (FY) 2018. It also revises and rebases the market basket index by updating the base year from 2010 to 2014, and by adding a new cost category for Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Services. The rule also finalizes revisions to the SNF Quality Reporting Program (QRP), including measure and standardized resident assessment data policies and policies related to public display. In addition, it finalizes policies for the Skilled Nursing Facility Value-Based Purchasing Program that will affect Medicare payment to SNFs beginning in FY 2019. The final rule also clarifies the regulatory requirements for team composition for surveys conducted for investigating a complaint and aligns regulatory provisions for investigation of complaints with the statutory requirements. The final rule also finalizes the performance period for the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) Healthcare Personnel (HCP) Influenza Vaccination Reporting Measure included in the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Quality Incentive Program (QIP) for Payment Year 2020.

Medicare Program; Cancellation of Advancing Care Coordination Through Episode Payment and Cardiac Rehabilitation Incentive Payment Models; Changes to Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model: Extreme and Uncontrollable Circumstances Policy for the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model. Final rule; interim final rule with comment period.

PubMed

2017-12-01

This final rule cancels the Episode Payment Models (EPMs) and Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) Incentive Payment Model and rescinds the regulations governing these models. It also implements certain revisions to the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, including: Giving certain hospitals selected for participation in the CJR model a one-time option to choose whether to continue their participation in the model; technical refinements and clarifications for certain payment, reconciliation and quality provisions; and a change to increase the pool of eligible clinicians that qualify as affiliated practitioners under the Advanced Alternative Payment Model (Advanced APM) track. An interim final rule with comment period is being issued in conjunction with this final rule in order to address the need for a policy to provide some flexibility in the determination of episode costs for providers located in areas impacted by extreme and uncontrollable circumstances.

Modeling a network of turloughs in lowland karst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, L. W.; Naughton, O.; Johnston, P. M.

2013-06-01

In lowland karst areas of Ireland topographic depressions which get intermittently flooded on an annual cycle via groundwater sources are termed turloughs. These are sites of high ecological interest as they have communities and substrate characteristic of wetlands. The flooding in many turlough basins is due to insufficient capacity of the underground karst system to take increased flows following excessive precipitation events, causing the conduit-type network to surcharge. Continuous water level measurements have been taken in five linked turloughs in the lowland karst area of south Galway over a 3 year period. These water level fluctuations, in conjunction with river inputs and precipitation, were then used to elucidate the hydrogeological controls forming the hydraulic system beneath the ground. A model of the karst network has been developed using a pipe network model with the turloughs represented as ponds. The contribution to the karst network from diffuse flow through the epikarst via the matrix and fracture flow has also been modeled using a combination of an infiltration module and network of permeable pipes. The final model was calibrated against two separate hydrological years and in general provided a good simulation for all of the turloughs water levels particularly for the year with one main filling event. The model also accurately picked up the tidal response observed in these turloughs at shallow depths. The model has been used to predict the groundwater discharge to the coast via the main spring which had not heretofore been possible to measure, being below the sea level.

Evaluation of brightness temperature from a forward model of ground-based microwave radiometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rambabu, S.; Pillai, J. S.; Agarwal, A.; Pandithurai, G.

2014-06-01

Ground-based microwave radiometers are getting great attention in recent years due to their capability to profile the temperature and humidity at high temporal and vertical resolution in the lower troposphere. The process of retrieving these parameters from the measurements of radiometric brightness temperature ( T B ) includes the inversion algorithm, which uses the back ground information from a forward model. In the present study, an algorithm development and evaluation of this forward model for a ground-based microwave radiometer, being developed by Society for Applied Microwave Electronics Engineering and Research (SAMEER) of India, is presented. Initially, the analysis of absorption coefficient and weighting function at different frequencies was made to select the channels. Further the range of variation of T B for these selected channels for the year 2011, over the two stations Mumbai and Delhi is discussed. Finally the comparison between forward-model simulated T B s and radiometer measured T B s at Mahabaleshwar (73.66 ∘E and 17.93∘N) is done to evaluate the model. There is good agreement between model simulations and radiometer observations, which suggests that these forward model simulations can be used as background for inversion models for retrieving the temperature and humidity profiles.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Violent video games and delinquent behavior in adolescents: A risk factor perspective.

PubMed

Exelmans, Liese; Custers, Kathleen; Van den Bulck, Jan

2015-05-01

Over the years, criminological research has identified a number of risk factors that contribute to the development of aggressive and delinquent behavior. Although studies have identified media violence in general and violent video gaming in particular as significant predictors of aggressive behavior, exposure to violent video games has been largely omitted from the risk factor literature on delinquent behavior. This cross-sectional study therefore investigates the relationship between violent video game play and adolescents' delinquent behavior using a risk factor approach. An online survey was completed by 3,372 Flemish adolescents, aged 12-18 years old. Data were analyzed by means of negative binomial regression modelling. Results indicated a significant contribution of violent video games in delinquent behavior over and beyond multiple known risk variables (peer delinquency, sensation seeking, prior victimization, and alienation). Moreover, the final model that incorporated the gaming genres proved to be significantly better than the model without the gaming genres. Results provided support for a cumulative and multiplicative risk model for delinquent behavior. Aggr. Behav. 41:267-279, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Progress in thermal comfort research over the last twenty years.

PubMed

de Dear, R J; Akimoto, T; Arens, E A; Brager, G; Candido, C; Cheong, K W D; Li, B; Nishihara, N; Sekhar, S C; Tanabe, S; Toftum, J; Zhang, H; Zhu, Y

2013-12-01

Climate change and the urgency of decarbonizing the built environment are driving technological innovation in the way we deliver thermal comfort to occupants. These changes, in turn, seem to be setting the directions for contemporary thermal comfort research. This article presents a literature review of major changes, developments, and trends in the field of thermal comfort research over the last 20 years. One of the main paradigm shift was the fundamental conceptual reorientation that has taken place in thermal comfort thinking over the last 20 years; a shift away from the physically based determinism of Fanger's comfort model toward the mainstream and acceptance of the adaptive comfort model. Another noticeable shift has been from the undesirable toward the desirable qualities of air movement. Additionally, sophisticated models covering the physics and physiology of the human body were developed, driven by the continuous challenge to model thermal comfort at the same anatomical resolution and to combine these localized signals into a coherent, global thermal perception. Finally, the demand for ever increasing building energy efficiency is pushing technological innovation in the way we deliver comfortable indoor environments. These trends, in turn, continue setting the directions for contemporary thermal comfort research for the next decades. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The NASA/National Space Science Data Center trapped radiation environment model program, 1964 - 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vette, James I.

1991-01-01

The major effort that NASA, initially with the help of the United States Air Force (USAF), carried out for 27 years to synthesize the experimental and theoretical results of space research related to energetic charged particles into a quantitative description of the terrestrial trapped radiation environment in the form of model environments is detailed. The effort is called the Trapped Radiation Environment Modeling Program (TREMP). In chapter 2 the historical background leading to the establishment of this program is given. Also, the purpose of this modeling program as established by the founders of the program is discussed. This is followed in chapter 3 by the philosophy and approach that was applied in this program throughout its lifetime. As will be seen, this philosophy led to the continuation of the program long after it would have expired. The highlights of the accomplishments are presented in chapter 4. A view to future possible efforts in this arena is given in chapter 5, mainly to pass on to future workers the differences that are perceived from these many years of experience. Chapter 6 is an appendix that details the chronology of the development of TREMP. Finally, the references, which document the work accomplished over these years, are presented in chapter 7.

Simple measurements reveal the feeding history, the onset of reproduction, and energy conversion efficiencies in captive bluefin tuna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusup, Marko; Klanjšček, Tin; Matsuda, Hiroyuki

2014-11-01

We present a numerical approach that, in conjunction with a fully set up Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, aims at consistently approximating the feeding history of cultivated fish from the commonly measured aquaculture data (body length, body mass, or the condition factor). We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach by performing validation of a DEB-based model for Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) on an independent dataset and exploring the implied bioenergetics of this species in captivity. In the context of validation, the results indicate that the model successfully accounts for more than 75% of the variance in actual fish feed. At the 5% significance level, predictions do not underestimate nor overestimate observations and there is no bias. The overall model accuracy of 87.6% is satisfactory. In the context of tuna bioenergetics, we offer an explanation as to why the first reproduction in the examined case occurred only after the fish reached seven years of age, whereas it takes five years in the wild and sometimes as little as three years in captivity. Finally, we calculate energy conversion efficiencies and the supply stress throughout the entire lifetime to theoretically underpin the relatively low contribution of growth to aerobic metabolism implied by respirometry and high feed conversion ratio observed in bluefin tuna aquaculture.

Predictors of new graduate nurses' workplace well-being: testing the job demands-resources model.

PubMed

Spence Laschinger, Heather K; Grau, Ashley L; Finegan, Joan; Wilk, Piotr

2012-01-01

New graduate nurses currently experience a stressful transition into the workforce, resulting in high levels of burnout and job turnover in their first year of practice. This study tested a theoretical model of new graduate nurses' worklife derived from the job demands-resources model to better understand how job demands (workload and bullying), job resources (job control and supportive professional practice environments), and a personal resource (psychological capital) combine to influence new graduate experiences of burnout and work engagement and, ultimately, health and job outcomes. A descriptive correlational design was used to test the hypothesized model in a sample of newly graduated nurses (N = 420) working in acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Data were collected from July to November 2009. Participants were mailed questionnaires to their home address using the Total Design Method to improve response rates. All variables were measured using standardized questionnaires, and structural equation modeling was used to test the model. The final model fit statistics partially supported the original hypothesized model. In the final model, job demands (workload and bullying) predicted burnout and, subsequently, poor mental health. Job resources (supportive practice environment and control) predicted work engagement and, subsequently, lower turnover intentions. Burnout also was a significant predictor of turnover intent (a crossover effect). Furthermore, personal resources (psychological capital) significantly influenced both burnout and work engagement. The model suggests that managerial strategies targeted at specific job demands and resources can create workplace environments that promote work engagement and prevent burnout to support the retention and well-being of the new graduate nurse population.

Towards a Neurodevelopmental Model of Clinical Case Formulation

PubMed Central

Solomon, Marjorie; Hessl, David; Chiu, Sufen; Olsen, Emily; Hendren, Robert

2009-01-01

Rapid advances in molecular genetics and neuroimaging over the last 10-20 years have been a catalyst for research in neurobiology, developmental psychopathology, and translational neuroscience. Methods of study in psychiatry, previously described as “slow maturing,” now are becoming sufficiently sophisticated to more effectively investigate the biology of higher mental processes. Despite these technological advances, the recognition that psychiatric disorders are disorders of neurodevelopment, and the importance of case formulation to clinical practice, a neurodevelopmental model of case formulation has not yet been articulated. The goals of this manuscript, which is organized as a clinical case conference, are to begin to articulate a neurodevelopmental model of case formulation, to illustrate its value, and finally to explore how clinical psychiatric practice might evolve in the future if this model were employed. PMID:19248925

Theoretical and global scale model studies of the atmospheric sulfur/aerosol system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasibhatla, Prasad

1996-01-01

The primary focus during the third-phase of our on-going multi-year research effort has been on 3 activities. These are: (1) a global-scale model study of the anthropogenic component of the tropospheric sulfur cycle; (2) process-scale model studies of the factors influencing the distribution of aerosols in the remote marine atmosphere; and (3) an investigation of the mechanism of the OH-initiated oxidation of DMS in the remote marine boundary layer. In this paper, we describe in more detail our research activities in each of these areas. A major portion of our activities during the fourth and final phase of this project will involve the preparation and submission of manuscripts describing the results from our model studies of marine boundary-layer aerosols and DMS-oxidation mechanisms.

A three-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of medical students' attitudes toward anatomy teaching and their career aspirations.

PubMed

Bhangu, Aneel; Boutefnouchet, Tarek; Yong, Xu; Abrahams, Peter; Joplin, Ruth

2010-01-01

Today's medical students are faced with numerous learning needs. Continuously developing curricula have reduced time for basic science subjects such as anatomy. This study aimed to determine the students' views on the relevance of anatomy teaching, anatomical knowledge, and the effect these have on their career choices. A Likert scale questionnaire was distributed to second year medical students [response rate 91% (n = 292/320)]. The same questionnaire was subsequently distributed to the cohort three years later when they were final year students [response rate 37% (n = 146/392)]. Students in both the cohorts of study agreed strongly that clinically correlated anatomical teaching was relevant to clinical practice (92% and 86% of second and final year respondents, respectively) and helped them during their clinical placements (73% and 92%, respectively). Only 28% of the second year and 31% of the final year students agreed that their anatomy teaching prepared them to interpret clinical images (P = 0.269). Only 14% of the final year students felt confident in their knowledge of anatomy. Of the final year students, 30% felt that they had enough opportunity to scrub in the operating room. Nearly half of those students who would consider surgery as a career (19%) think that they will eventually become surgeons (11%). This data suggests that modern anatomy curriculum should focus on clinical correlations and clinical image interpretation. Students would value more opportunities to participate in surgeries. Vertical integration of anatomy teaching throughout the full medical course may be useful. Copyright 2010 American Association of Anatomists.

Assessing temporally and spatially resolved PM 2.5 exposures for epidemiological studies using satellite aerosol optical depth measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloog, Itai; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lee, Hyung Joo; Schwartz, Joel

2011-11-01

Land use regression (LUR) models provide good estimates of spatially resolved long-term exposures, but are poor at capturing short term exposures. Satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatio-temporally resolved predictions of both long and short term exposures, but previous studies have generally showed relatively low predictive power. Our objective was to extend our previous work on day-specific calibrations of AOD data using ground PM 2.5 measurements by incorporating commonly used LUR variables and meteorological variables, thus benefiting from both the spatial resolution from the LUR models and the spatio-temporal resolution from the satellite models. Later we use spatial smoothing to predict PM 2.5 concentrations for day/locations with missing AOD measures. We used mixed models with random slopes for day to calibrate AOD data for 2000-2008 across New-England with monitored PM 2.5 measurements. We then used a generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing to estimate PM 2.5 in location-day pairs with missing AOD, using regional measured PM 2.5, AOD values in neighboring cells, and land use. Finally, local (100 m) land use terms were used to model the difference between grid cell prediction and monitored value to capture very local traffic particles. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. For days with available AOD data we found high out-of-sample R2 (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.830, year to year variation 0.725-0.904). For days without AOD values, our model performance was also excellent (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.810, year to year variation 0.692-0.887). Importantly, these R2 are for daily, rather than monthly or yearly, values. Our model allows one to assess short term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and chronic effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Procrastination and Cheating from Secondary School to University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clariana, Merce; Gotzens, Concepcion; Badia, M. del Mar; Cladellas, Ramon

2012-01-01

Introduction: This article has two purposes. First, to show the correlation between two unfortunately very common academic habits: procrastination and cheating. Second, to analyse the sequential trend of these two tendencies, from the final year of compulsory secondary education (in Spain 4th year of ESO; age 16) to the final year of university…

Exploring the Impacts of Accelerated Delivery on Student Learning, Achievement and Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkins, Stephen; Martin, Susan; Walker, Ian

2010-01-01

This case study examines the impacts on student learning, achievement and satisfaction when year 13 (final year) students at a large UK sixth-form college take a GCE A level in one year instead of the usual two years. Data relating to the entry qualifications and final A level grades achieved by 879 students on both accelerated and non-accelerated…

The energy balance of tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Cordillera Blanca, Perú - AWS-measurements and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galos, S.; Mölg, T.; MacDonell, S.; Großhauser, M.; Marzeion, B.

2012-04-01

Like in most regions of the world, tropical glaciers in the Peruvian Andes have experienced considerable mass loss during the last decades. In order to better understand and correctly interpret the ongoing glacier changes in this region, we need to examine the driving processes behind these changes. Therefore we installed several automatic weather stations (AWS) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range. Two of these stations are situated in the ablation area of Glaciar Shallap and Glaciar Artesonraju, while four other stations were established in the vicinity of the two glaciers. The resulting eight year record of meteorological data is analyzed and finally used as input for a physically based numerical energy and mass balance model, which in a first step was applied to the ablation zone of Glaciar Artesonraju (8.96° S / 77.63° W). In July 2010, eddy covariance measurements were carried out on the glacier surface. The resulting data was used to calibrate the parametrization scheme for the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. Finally the model output was validated against ablation data from a sonic ranger and from single stake ablation measurements. The model results were interpreted with special respect to the seasonal fluctuation in atmospheric moisture (tropical wet / dry season).

Self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volume in older women.

PubMed

Davis, Jennifer C; Nagamatsu, Lindsay S; Hsu, Chun Liang; Beattie, B Lynn; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2012-07-01

ageing is highly associated with neurodegeneration and atrophy of the brain. Evidence suggests that personality variables are risk factors for reduced brain volume. We examine whether falls-related self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volume. a cross-sectional analysis of whether falls-related self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volumes (total, grey and white matter). Three multivariate regression models were constructed. Covariates included in the models were age, global cognition, systolic blood pressure, functional comorbidity index and current physical activity level. MRI scans were acquired from 79 community-dwelling senior women aged 65-75 years old. Falls-related self-efficacy was assessed by the activities-specific balance confidence (ABC) scale. after accounting for covariates, falls-related self-efficacy was independently associated with both total brain volume and total grey matter volume. The final model for total brain volume accounted for 17% of the variance, with the ABC score accounting for 8%. For total grey matter volume, the final model accounted for 24% of the variance, with the ABC score accounting for 10%. we provide novel evidence that falls-related self-efficacy, a modifiable risk factor for healthy ageing, is positively associated with total brain volume and total grey matter volume. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00426881.

Towards a Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd

2016-01-01

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost approximately (X) D(exp (1.75 +/- 0.05)) lambda(exp(-0.5 +/- 0.25) T(exp -0.25) e (exp (-0.04)Y). Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volume in older women

PubMed Central

Davis, Jennifer C.; Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Hsu, Chun Liang; Beattie, B. Lynn; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2015-01-01

Background Aging is highly associated with neurodegeneration and atrophy of the brain. Evidence suggests that personality variables are risk factors for reduced brain volume. We examine whether falls-related self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volume. Method A cross-sectional analysis of whether falls-related self-efficacy is independently associated with brain volumes (total, grey, and white matter). Three multivariate regression models were constructed. Covariates included in the models were age, global cognition, systolic blood pressure, functional comorbidity index, and current physical activity level. MRI scans were acquired from 79 community-dwelling senior women aged 65 to 75 years old. Falls-related self-efficacy was assessed by the Activities Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale. Results After accounting for covariates, falls-related self-efficacy was independently associated with both total brain volume and total grey matter volume. The final model for total brain volume accounted for 17% of the variance, with the ABC score accounting for 8%. For total grey matter volume, the final model accounted for 24% of the variance, with the ABC score accounting for 10%. Conclusion We provide novel evidence that falls-related self-efficacy, a modifiable risk factor for healthy aging, is positively associated with total brain volume and total grey matter volume. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00426881. PMID:22436405

Multivariable parametric cost model for space and ground telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd

2016-09-01

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost (X) D (1.75 +/- 0.05) λ (-0.5 +/- 0.25) T-0.25 e (-0.04) Y Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Reproductive Risk Factors and Coronary Heart Disease in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

PubMed Central

Parikh, Nisha I.; Jeppson, Rebecca P.; Berger, Jeffrey S.; Eaton, Charles B.; Kroenke, Candyce H.; LeBlanc, Erin S.; Lewis, Cora E.; Loucks, Eric B.; Parker, Donna R.; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Ryckman, Kelli K; Waring, Molly E.; Schenken, Robert S.; Johnson, Karen C; Edstedt-Bonamy, Anna-Karin; Allison, Matthew A.; Howard, Barbara V.

2016-01-01

Background Reproductive factors provide an early window into a woman’s coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, however their contribution to CHD risk stratification is uncertain. Methods and Results In the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study, we constructed Cox proportional hazards models for CHD including age, pregnancy status, number of live births, age at menarche, menstrual irregularity, age at first birth, stillbirths, miscarriages, infertility ≥ 1 year, infertility cause, and breastfeeding. We next added each candidate reproductive factor to an established CHD risk factor model. A final model was then constructed with significant reproductive factors added to established CHD risk factors. Improvement in C-statistic, net reclassification index (or NRI with risk categories of <5%, 5–<10%, and ≥10% 10-year risk of CHD) and integrated discriminatory index (IDI) were assessed. Among 72,982 women [n=4607 CHD events, median follow-up=12.0 (IQR=8.3–13.7) years, mean (SD) age 63.2 (7.2) years], an age-adjusted reproductive risk factor model had a C-statistic of 0.675 for CHD. In a model adjusted for established CHD risk factors, younger age at first birth, number of still births, number of miscarriages and lack of breastfeeding were positively associated with CHD. Reproductive factors modestly improved model discrimination (C-statistic increased from 0.726 to 0.730; IDI=0.0013, p-value < 0.0001). Net reclassification for women with events was not improved (NRI events=0.007, p-value=0.18); and for women without events was marginally improved (NRI non-events=0.002, p-value=0.04) Conclusions Key reproductive factors are associated with CHD independently of established CHD risk factors, very modestly improve model discrimination and do not materially improve net reclassification. PMID:27143682

R&D Progress of HTS Magnet Project for Ultrahigh-field MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosaka, Taizo; Miyazaki, Hiroshi; Iwai, Sadanori; Otani, Yasumi; Takahashi, Masahiko; Tasaki, Kenji; Nomura, Shunji; Kurusu, Tsutomu; Ueda, Hiroshi; Noguchi, So; Ishiyama, Atsushi; Urayama, Shinichi; Fukuyama, Hidenao

An R&D project on high-temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets using rare-earth Ba2Cu3O7 (REBCO) wires was started in 2013. The project objective is to investigate the feasibility of adapting REBCO magnets to ultrahigh field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems. REBCO wires are promising components for UHF-MRI magnets because of their superior superconducting and mechanical properties, which make them smaller and lighter than conventional ones. Moreover, REBCO magnets can be cooled by the conduction-cooling method, making liquid helium unnecessary. In the past two years, some test coils and model magnets have been fabricated and tested. This year is the final year of the project. The goals of the project are: (1) to generate a 9.4 T magnetic field with a small test coil, (2) to generate a homogeneous magnetic field in a 200 mm diameter spherical volume with a 1.5 T model magnet, and (3) to perform imaging with the 1.5 T model magnet. In this paper, the progress of this R&D is described. The knowledge gained through these R&D results will be reflected in the design of 9.4 T MRI magnets for brain and whole body imaging.

Cystic fibrosis: addressing the transition from pediatric to adult-oriented health care.

PubMed

Kreindler, James L; Miller, Victoria A

2013-12-11

Survival for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) increased to nearly 40 years in 2012 from the early childhood years in the 1940s. Therefore, patients are living long enough to require transition from pediatric CF centers to adult CF centers. The goal of transition is for the young adult to be engaged in the adult health care system in ways that optimize health, maximize potential, and increase quality of life. A successful transition promotes autonomy and responsibility with respect to one's own health. Currently, there is an information gap in the literature with respect to psychological models that can help guide informed transition processes. In this review, we establish the framework in which transition exists in CF; we review some of the published literature from the last 20 years of experience with transition in CF centers around the world; and we discuss psychological models of pediatric illness that can help to explain the current state of transition to adult-oriented care from pediatric-oriented care and help to formulate new models of ascertaining readiness for transition. Finally, we look at our current knowledge gaps and opportunities for future research endeavors.

Developing integrated clinical reasoning competencies in dental students using scaffolded case-based learning - empirical evidence.

PubMed

Postma, T C; White, J G

2016-08-01

This study provides empirical evidence of the development of integrated clinical reasoning in the discipline-based School of Dentistry, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Students were exposed to case-based learning in comprehensive patient care (CPC) in the preclinical year of study, scaffolded by means of the four-component instructional design model for complex learning. Progress test scores of third- to fifth-year dental students, who received case-based teaching and learning in the third year (2009-2011), were compared to the scores of preceding fourth- and fifth-year cohorts. These fourth- and fifth-year cohorts received content-based teaching concurrently with their clinical training in CPC. The progress test consisted of a complex case study and 32 MCQs on tracer conditions. Students had to gather the necessary information and had to make diagnostic and treatment-planning decisions. Preclinical students who participated in the case-based teaching and learning achieved similar scores compared to final-year students who received lecture-based teaching and learning. Final-year students who participated in the case-based learning made three more correct clinical decisions per student, compared to those who received content-based teaching. Students struggled more with treatment-planning than with diagnostic decisions. The scaffolded case-based learning appears to contribute to accurate clinical decisions when compared to lecture-based teaching. It is suggested that the development of integrated reasoning competencies starts as early as possible in a dental curriculum, perhaps even in the preclinical year of study. Treatment-planning should receive particular attention. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling and simulation of protein elution in linear pH and salt gradients on weak, strong and mixed cation exchange resins applying an extended Donnan ion exchange model.

PubMed

Wittkopp, Felix; Peeck, Lars; Hafner, Mathias; Frech, Christian

2018-04-13

Process development and characterization based on mathematic modeling provides several advantages and has been applied more frequently over the last few years. In this work, a Donnan equilibrium ion exchange (DIX) model is applied for modelling and simulation of ion exchange chromatography of a monoclonal antibody in linear chromatography. Four different cation exchange resin prototypes consisting of weak, strong and mixed ligands are characterized using pH and salt gradient elution experiments applying the extended DIX model. The modelling results are compared with the results using a classic stoichiometric displacement model. The Donnan equilibrium model is able to describe all four prototype resins while the stoichiometric displacement model fails for the weak and mixed weak/strong ligands. Finally, in silico chromatogram simulations of pH and pH/salt dual gradients are performed to verify the results and to show the consistency of the developed model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Final Maps and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, C. L.; Larson, D.; Weiland, J. L.; Jaorsik, N.; Hinshaw, G.; Odegard, N.; Smith, K. M.; Hill, R. S.; Gold, B.; Halpern, M;

Research on water shortage risks and countermeasures in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuxiang; Fang, Wenxuan; Wu, Ziqin

2017-05-01

In the paper, a grey forecasting model and a population growth model are established for forecasting water resources supply and demand situation in the region, and evaluating the scarcity of water resources thereof in order to solve the problem of water shortage in North China. A concrete plan for alleviating water resources pressure is proposed with AHP as basis, thereby discussing the feasibility of the plan. Firstly, water resources supply and demand in the future 15 years are predicted. There are four sources for the demand of water resources mainly: industry, agriculture, ecology and resident living. Main supply sources include surface water and underground water resources. A grey forecasting method is adopted for predicting in the paper aiming at water resources demands since industrial, agricultural and ecological water consumption data have excessive decision factors and the correlation is relatively fuzzy. Since residents' water consumption is determined by per capita water consumption and local population, a logistic growth model is adopted to forecast the population. The grey forecasting method is used for predicting per capita water consumption, and total water demand can be obtained finally. International calculation standards are adopted as reference aiming at water supply. The grey forecasting method is adopted for forecasting surface water quantity and underground water quantity, and water resources supply is obtained finally. Per capita water availability in the region is calculated by comparing the water resources supply and demand. Results show that per capita water availability in the region is only 283 cubic meters this year, people live in serious water shortage region, who will suffer from water shortage state for long time. Then, sensitivity analysis is applied for model test. The test result is excellent, and the prediction results are more accurate. In the paper, the following measures are proposed for improving water resources condition in the region according to prediction results, such as construction of reservoirs, sewage treatment, water diversion project and other measures. A detailed water supply plan is formulated. Water supply weights of all measures are determined according to the AHP model. Solution is sought after original models are improved. Results show that water resources quantity per capita will be up to 2170 cubic meters or so this year, people suffer from moderate water shortage in the region, which can meet people's life needs and economic development needs basically. In addition, water resources quantity per capita is increased year by year, and it can reach mild water shortage level after 2030. In a word, local water resources dilemma can be effectively solved by the plan actually, and thoughts can be provided for decision makers.

Final Progress Report for Ionospheric Dusty Plasma In the Laboratory [Smokey Plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Scott

2010-07-31

“Ionospheric Dusty Plasma in the Laboratory” is a research project with the purpose of finding and reproducing the characteristics of plasma in the polar mesosphere that is unusually cold (down to 140 K) and contains nanometer-sized dust particles. This final progress report summarizes results from four years of effort that include a final year with a no-cost extension.

Optimization of Methylphenidate Extended-Release Chewable Tablet Dose in Children with ADHD: Open-Label Dose Optimization in a Laboratory Classroom Study.

PubMed

Wigal, Sharon B; Childress, Ann; Berry, Sally A; Belden, Heidi W; Chappell, Phillip; Wajsbrot, Dalia B; Nagraj, Praneeta; Abbas, Richat; Palumbo, Donna

2018-06-01

To examine methylphenidate extended-release chewable tablets (MPH ERCT) dose patterns, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptom scores, and safety during the 6-week, open-label (OL) dose-optimization period of a phase 3, laboratory classroom study. Boys and girls (6-12 years) diagnosed with ADHD were enrolled. MPH ERCT was initiated at 20 mg/day; participants were titrated in 10-20 mg/day increments weekly based on efficacy and tolerability (maximum dose, 60 mg/day). Dose-optimization period efficacy assessments included the ADHD Rating Scale (ADHD-RS-IV), analyzed by week in a post hoc analysis using a mixed-effects model for repeated measures with final optimized dose (20, 30/40, or 50/60 mg), visit, final optimized dose and visit interaction, and baseline score as terms. Adverse events (AEs) and concomitant medications were collected throughout the study. Mean MPH ERCT daily dose increased weekly from 29.4 mg/day after the first dose adjustment at week 1 (n = 90) to 42.8 mg/day after the final adjustment at week 5 (n = 86). Final optimized MPH ERCT dose ranged from 20 to 60 mg/day. Mean final optimized MPH ERCT dose ranged from 40.0 mg/day in 6-8 year-old participants to 44.8 mg/day for 11-12 year-old participants. There was a progressive decrease in mean (standard deviation) ADHD-RS-IV total score from 40.1 (8.72) at baseline to 12.4 (7.88) at OL week 5, with similar improvement patterns for hyperactivity/impulsivity and inattentiveness subscale scores. Participants optimized to MPH ERCT 50/60 mg/day had a significantly higher mean (standard error) ADHD-RS-IV score at baseline compared with participants optimized to MPH ERCT 20 mg/day (42.4 [1.34] vs. 35.1 [2.55]; p = 0.013). Treatment-emergent AEs were reported by 65/90 (72.2%) participants in the dose-optimization period. Dose-optimization period results describing relationships between change in ADHD symptom scores and final optimized MPH ERCT dose will be valuable for clinicians optimizing MPH ERCT dose.

75 FR 42819 - Notice of Availability of a Final Environmental Assessment (Final EA) and a Finding of No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-22

... the Proposed ORD Airport Surveillance Radar, Model 9, West Chicago, IL AGENCY: Federal Aviation... Surveillance Radar, Model 9, West Chicago, Illinois. SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is... (Final EA) for the Proposed ORD Airport Surveillance Radar, Model 9 (ASR-9), in West Chicago, Illinois...

From access to success in science: An academic-student affairs intervention for undergraduate freshmen biology students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldridge, Jacqueline Nouvelle

The first year experience is known to present an array of challenges for traditional college students. In particular, freshmen who major in a STEM discipline have their own unique set of challenges when they transition from high school science and math to college science and math; especially chemistry. As a result, students may encounter negative experiences which lower academic and social confidence. This project was designed as a pilot study intervention for a small group of freshmen biology students who were considered academically at-risk due their math SAT scores. The study occurred during the fall semester involving an enhanced active learning component based on the Peer-led Team Learning (PLTL) general chemistry supplemental pedagogy model, and a biology-focused First Year Experience (FYE). PLTL workshops took place in freshmen residence halls, creating a live-n-learn community environment. Mid-term and final chemistry grades and final math grades were collected to measure academic progress. Self-reporting surveys and journals were used to encourage participants to reconstruct their experiences and perceptions of the study. Descriptive analysis was performed to measure statistical significance between midterm and final grade performance, and a general inductive qualitative method was used to determine academic and social confidence as well as experiences and perceptions of the project. Findings of this project revealed a statistically significant improvement between chemistry midterm and final grades of the sample participants. Although academic confidence did not increase, results reveal that social confidence progressed as the majority of students developed a value for studying in groups.

On the design of learning outcomes for the undergraduate engineer's final year project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thambyah, Ashvin

2011-03-01

The course for the final year project for engineering students, because of its strongly research-based, open-ended format, tends to not have well defined learning outcomes, which are also not aligned with any accepted pedagogical philosophy or learning technology. To address this problem, the revised Bloom's taxonomy table of Anderson and Krathwohl (2001) is utilised, as suggested previously by Lee and Lai (2007), to design new learning outcomes for the final year project course in engineering education. Based on the expectations of the engineering graduate, and integrating these graduate expectations into the six cognitive processes and four knowledge dimensions of the taxonomy table, 24 learning outcomes have been designed. It is proposed that these 24 learning outcomes be utilised as a suitable working template to inspire more critical evaluation of what is expected to be learnt by engineering students undertaking final year research or capstone projects.

Learning styles and approaches to learning among medical undergraduates and postgraduates

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The challenge of imparting a large amount of knowledge within a limited time period in a way it is retained, remembered and effectively interpreted by a student is considerable. This has resulted in crucial changes in the field of medical education, with a shift from didactic teacher centered and subject based teaching to the use of interactive, problem based, student centered learning. This study tested the hypothesis that learning styles (visual, auditory, read/write and kinesthetic) and approaches to learning (deep, strategic and superficial) differ among first and final year undergraduate medical students, and postgraduates medical trainees. Methods We used self administered VARK and ASSIST questionnaires to assess the differences in learning styles and approaches to learning among medical undergraduates of the University of Colombo and postgraduate trainees of the Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, Colombo. Results A total of 147 participated: 73 (49.7%) first year students, 40 (27.2%) final year students and 34(23.1%) postgraduate students. The majority (69.9%) of first year students had multimodal learning styles. Among final year students, the majority (67.5%) had multimodal learning styles, and among postgraduates, the majority were unimodal (52.9%) learners. Among all three groups, the predominant approach to learning was strategic. Postgraduates had significant higher mean scores for deep and strategic approaches than first years or final years (p < 0.05). Mean scores for the superficial approach did not differ significantly between groups. Conclusions The learning approaches suggest a positive shift towards deep and strategic learning in postgraduate students. However a similar difference was not observed in undergraduate students from first year to final year, suggesting that their curriculum may not have influenced learning methodology over a five year period. PMID:23521845

Learning styles and approaches to learning among medical undergraduates and postgraduates.

PubMed

Samarakoon, Lasitha; Fernando, Tharanga; Rodrigo, Chaturaka

2013-03-25

The challenge of imparting a large amount of knowledge within a limited time period in a way it is retained, remembered and effectively interpreted by a student is considerable. This has resulted in crucial changes in the field of medical education, with a shift from didactic teacher centered and subject based teaching to the use of interactive, problem based, student centered learning. This study tested the hypothesis that learning styles (visual, auditory, read/write and kinesthetic) and approaches to learning (deep, strategic and superficial) differ among first and final year undergraduate medical students, and postgraduates medical trainees. We used self administered VARK and ASSIST questionnaires to assess the differences in learning styles and approaches to learning among medical undergraduates of the University of Colombo and postgraduate trainees of the Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, Colombo. A total of 147 participated: 73 (49.7%) first year students, 40 (27.2%) final year students and 34(23.1%) postgraduate students. The majority (69.9%) of first year students had multimodal learning styles. Among final year students, the majority (67.5%) had multimodal learning styles, and among postgraduates, the majority were unimodal (52.9%) learners.Among all three groups, the predominant approach to learning was strategic. Postgraduates had significant higher mean scores for deep and strategic approaches than first years or final years (p < 0.05). Mean scores for the superficial approach did not differ significantly between groups. The learning approaches suggest a positive shift towards deep and strategic learning in postgraduate students. However a similar difference was not observed in undergraduate students from first year to final year, suggesting that their curriculum may not have influenced learning methodology over a five year period.

Almost certain escape from black holes in final state projection models.

PubMed

Lloyd, Seth

2006-02-17

Recent models of the black-hole final state suggest that quantum information can escape from a black hole by a process akin to teleportation. These models rely on a controversial process called final-state projection. This Letter discusses the self-consistency of the final-state projection hypothesis and investigates escape from black holes for arbitrary final states and for generic interactions between matter and Hawking radiation. Quantum information escapes with fidelity approximately = (8/3pi)2: only half a bit of quantum information is lost on average, independent of the number of bits that escape from the hole.

Outstanding junior investigator program. [Final technical report, 8/1/92-10/31/97

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, Lisa; Rosenberg, Leslie

1999-12-18

Much of the authors work over the past five years has been aimed at bridging the gap between the exactly supersymmetric world of string theories and the world that is actually observed. Her report discusses the following subjects: (1) supersymmetry breaking; related work on the mass hierarchy and the relation between supersymmetry and grand unified theories; distinguishing between supersymmetric models; and the fundamental question of how gauge theories arise from D-branes.

Laboratory and Field Studies of the Acoustics of Multiphase Ocean Bottom Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

data from this measurement campaign is shown in Figs. 1, 2, 3 and 4. The statistical nature of this data will be assesed and comparison to models... environmental regulations limiting sound levels in the water, even for this source, which is intended to replace SUS. We conducted an engineering...Finally, a full listing of all grant-related activities is shown in the Fiscal Year Publications section below. IMPACT /APPLICATIONS The Biot-based

Use of Academic Detailing With Audit and Feedback to Improve Antipsychotic Pharmacotherapy.

PubMed

Brunette, Mary F; Cotes, Robert O; de Nesnera, Alexander; McHugo, Gregory; Dzebisashvili, Nino; Xie, Haiyi; Bartels, Stephen J

2018-06-08

Second-generation antipsychotics vary in their propensity to cause serious cardiometabolic side effects. In addition, use of two or more antipsychotics (polypharmacy) may lead to additive side effects and has not been shown to be consistently more effective than monotherapy. This study examined the use of academic detailing with audit and feedback to improve antipsychotic prescribing practices, including antipsychotic polypharmacy and utilization of medication with high or low risk of cardiometabolic side effects ("high risk" or "low risk," respectively). Four intervention sessions were provided over two years to psychiatric care providers at community mental health centers. Segmented regression within the general estimating equation model framework used Medicaid pharmacy claims to examine prescribing patterns before and after the intervention among all beneficiaries (67,721 person-months) over a five-year period. After the intervention, 10.9% of beneficiaries with antipsychotic claims were on polypharmacy, compared with 13.1% before the invention. Use of high-risk and low-risk antipsychotics did not change. The final adjusted polypharmacy model showed that antipsychotic polypharmacy decreased among young adults and adults ages 40 or older compared with beneficiaries ages 30-39 (β=-.02, p=.04, and β=-.02, p=.007, respectively). The raw proportion of beneficiaries on high- and low-risk agents did not change, although final adjusted models demonstrated changes in use of high- and low-risk agents by diagnosis and risk group. Polypharmacy decreased among young and older adults after academic detailing with audit and feedback. Although further research is needed, this low-intensity intervention may help mental health systems reduce antipsychotic polypharmacy.

Animal models in peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Nikitidou, Olga; Peppa, Vasiliki I; Leivaditis, Konstantinos; Eleftheriadis, Theodoros; Zarogiannis, Sotirios G; Liakopoulos, Vassilios

2015-01-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) has been extensively used over the past years as a method of kidney replacement therapy for patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD). In an attempt to better understand the properties of the peritoneal membrane and the mechanisms involved in major complications associated with PD, such as inflammation, peritonitis and peritoneal injury, both in vivo and ex vivo animal models have been used. The aim of the present review is to briefly describe the animal models that have been used, and comment on the main problems encountered while working with these models. Moreover, the differences characterizing these animal models, as well as, the differences with humans are highlighted. Finally, it is suggested that the use of standardized protocols is a necessity in order to take full advantage of animal models, extrapolate their results in humans, overcome the problems related to PD and help promote its use.

Modeling and predicting intertidal variations of the salinity field in the Bay/Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah; Uncles, Reginald J.

1995-01-01

One approach to simulating daily to monthly variability in the bay is the development of intertidal model using tidally-averaged equations and a time step on the order of the day.  An intertidal numerical model of the bay's physics, capable of portraying seasonal and inter-annual variability, would have several uses.  Observations are limited in time and space, so simulation could help fill the gaps.  Also, the ability to simulate multi-year episodes (eg, an extended drought) could provide insight into the response of the ecosystem to such events.  Finally, such a model could be used in a forecast mode wherein predicted delta flow is used as model input, and predicted salinity distribution is output with estimates days and months in advance.  This note briefly introduces such a tidally-averaged model (Uncles and Peterson, in press) and a corresponding predictive scheme for baywide forecasting.

Development of the Galaxy Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Model Using Data from ECLIPSE: Internal Validation of a Linked-Equations Cohort Model.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Baker, Timothy; Risebrough, Nancy A; Chambers, Mike; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Ismaila, Afisi S; Exuzides, Alex; Colby, Chris; Tabberer, Maggie; Muellerova, Hana; Locantore, Nicholas; Rutten van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

The recent joint International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research / Society for Medical Decision Making Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force emphasized the importance of conceptualizing and validating models. We report a new model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (part of the Galaxy project) founded on a conceptual model, implemented using a novel linked-equation approach, and internally validated. An expert panel developed a conceptual model including causal relationships between disease attributes, progression, and final outcomes. Risk equations describing these relationships were estimated using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study, with costs estimated from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study. Implementation as a linked-equation model enabled direct estimation of health service costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for COPD patients over their lifetimes. Internal validation compared 3 years of predicted cohort experience with ECLIPSE results. At 3 years, the Galaxy COPD model predictions of annual exacerbation rate and annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second fell within the ECLIPSE data confidence limits, although 3-year overall survival was outside the observed confidence limits. Projections of the risk equations over time permitted extrapolation to patient lifetimes. Averaging the predicted cost/QALY outcomes for the different patients within the ECLIPSE cohort gives an estimated lifetime cost of £25,214 (undiscounted)/£20,318 (discounted) and lifetime QALYs of 6.45 (undiscounted/5.24 [discounted]) per ECLIPSE patient. A new form of model for COPD was conceptualized, implemented, and internally validated, based on a series of linked equations using epidemiological data (ECLIPSE) and cost data (TORCH). This Galaxy model predicts COPD outcomes from treatment effects on disease attributes such as lung function, exacerbations, symptoms, or exercise capacity; further external validation is required.

A Novel Strategy for Numerical Simulation of High-speed Turbulent Reacting Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheikhi, M. R. H.; Drozda, T. G.; Givi, P.

2003-01-01

The objective of this research is to improve and implement the filtered mass density function (FDF) methodology for large eddy simulation (LES) of high-speed reacting turbulent flows. We have just completed Year 1 of this research. This is the Final Report on our activities during the period: January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2003. 2002. In the efforts during the past year, LES is conducted of the Sandia Flame D, which is a turbulent piloted nonpremixed methane jet flame. The subgrid scale (SGS) closure is based on the scalar filtered mass density function (SFMDF) methodology. The SFMDF is basically the mass weighted probability density function (PDF) of the SGS scalar quantities. For this flame (which exhibits little local extinction), a simple flamelet model is used to relate the instantaneous composition to the mixture fraction. The modelled SFMDF transport equation is solved by a hybrid finite-difference/Monte Carlo scheme.

The Projected Impacts to Clark County and Local Governmental Public Safety Agencies Resulting from the Transportation of High-Level Nuclear Waste to Yucca Mountain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mushkatel, A.H.; Conway, S.; Navis, I.

2006-07-01

This paper focuses on the difficulties of projecting fiscal impacts to public safety agencies from the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The efforts made by Clark County Nevada, to develop a fiscal model of impacts for public safety agencies are described in this paper. Some of the difficulties in constructing a fiscal model of impacts for the entire 24 year high-level nuclear waste transportation shipping campaign are identified, and a refined methodology is provided to accomplish this task. Finally, a comparison of the fiscal impact projections for public safety agencies that Clark County developed in 2001,more » with those done in 2005 is discussed, and the fiscal impact cost projections for the entire 24 year transportation campaign are provided. (authors)« less

Atmospheric refraction: a history.

PubMed

Lehn, Waldemar H; van der Werf, Siebren

2005-09-20

We trace the history of atmospheric refraction from the ancient Greeks up to the time of Kepler. The concept that the atmosphere could refract light entered Western science in the second century B.C. Ptolemy, 300 years later, produced the first clearly defined atmospheric model, containing air of uniform density up to a sharp upper transition to the ether, at which the refraction occurred. Alhazen and Witelo transmitted his knowledge to medieval Europe. The first accurate measurements were made by Tycho Brahe in the 16th century. Finally, Kepler, who was aware of unusually strong refractions, used the Ptolemaic model to explain the first documented and recognized mirage (the Novaya Zemlya effect).

Impacts of elevated temperature on ant species, communities and ecological roles at two temperate forests in Eastern North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunn, Robert

2014-04-01

Over the course of five years we have established a long-term array of warming chambers at Duke and Harvard Forest that simulate future conditions with regard to temperature. In these chambers, we have studied, ants, other animal taxa, fungi, bacteria and plants and their responses to the treatments. We have coupled these studies with lab experiments, large-scale observations, and models to contextualize our results. Finally, we have developed integrative models of the future distribution of species and their consequences as a result of warming in eastern North America and more generally.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Lessons Learned in the Specification, Purchase, Validation and Final Installation Process of a Replacement PCM Bit Synchronizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Richard N.

2007-01-01

This paper intends to describe the lessons learned while specifying validating and installing a bit sync to replace the 30 year old Aydin Model 335a PCM bit sync used in the Space Shuttle Launch Control Center. The engineer had to analyze the original requirements and specifications and then create new requirements documentation that more correctly described our needs. One issue to consider was the removal of unnecessary requirements such as various data formats when only one format is used. The conversion to a system that no longer has an assortment of analog rotary switches required retraining of the operators. Finally, post-procurement corrections for undisclosed user requirements and missed design requirements required close contact with a manufacturer who was willing to accommodate the changes.

How well do final year undergraduate medical students master practical clinical skills?

PubMed Central

Störmann, Sylvère; Stankiewicz, Melanie; Raes, Patricia; Berchtold, Christina; Kosanke, Yvonne; Illes, Gabrielle; Loose, Peter; Angstwurm, Matthias W.

2016-01-01

Introduction: The clinical examination and other practical clinical skills are fundamental to guide diagnosis and therapy. The teaching of such practical skills has gained significance through legislative changes and adjustments of the curricula of medical schools in Germany. We sought to find out how well final year undergraduate medical students master practical clinical skills. Methods: We conducted a formative 4-station objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) focused on practical clinical skills during the final year of undergraduate medical education. Participation was voluntary. Besides the examination of heart, lungs, abdomen, vascular system, lymphatic system as well as the neurological, endocrinological or orthopaedic examination we assessed other basic clinical skills (e.g. interpretation of an ECG, reading a chest X-ray). Participants filled-out a questionnaire prior to the exam, inter alia to give an estimate of their performance. Results: 214 final year students participated in our study and achieved a mean score of 72.8% of the total score obtainable. 9.3% of participants (n=20) scored insufficiently (<60%). We found no influence of sex, prior training in healthcare or place of study on performance. Only one third of the students correctly estimated their performance (35.3%), whereas 30.0% and 18.8% over-estimated their performance by 10% and 20% respectively. Discussion: Final year undergraduate medical students demonstrate considerable deficits performing practical clinical skills in the context of a formative assessment. Half of the students over-estimate their own performance. We recommend an institutionalised and frequent assessment of practical clinical skills during undergraduate medical education, especially in the final year. PMID:27579358

Emotional intelligence and academic performance in first and final year medical students: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Chew, Boon How; Zain, Azhar Md; Hassan, Faezah

2013-03-27

Research on emotional intelligence (EI) suggests that it is associated with more pro-social behavior, better academic performance and improved empathy towards patients. In medical education and clinical practice, EI has been related to higher academic achievement and improved doctor-patient relationships. This study examined the effect of EI on academic performance in first- and final-year medical students in Malaysia. This was a cross-sectional study using an objectively-scored measure of EI, the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT). Academic performance of medical school students was measured using continuous assessment (CA) and final examination (FE) results. The first- and final-year students were invited to participate during their second semester. Students answered a paper-based demographic questionnaire and completed the online MSCEIT on their own. Relationships between the total MSCEIT score to academic performance were examined using multivariate analyses. A total of 163 (84 year one and 79 year five) medical students participated (response rate of 66.0%). The gender and ethnic distribution were representative of the student population. The total EI score was a predictor of good overall CA (OR 1.01), a negative predictor of poor result in overall CA (OR 0.97), a predictor of the good overall FE result (OR 1.07) and was significantly related to the final-year FE marks (adjusted R(2) = 0.43). Medical students who were more emotionally intelligent performed better in both the continuous assessments and the final professional examination. Therefore, it is possible that emotional skill development may enhance medical students' academic performance.

Recruiting undergraduates to rural practice: what the students can tell us.

PubMed

Orpin, Peter; Gabriel, Michelle

2005-01-01

There are still large gaps in the evidence base for the effectiveness of Australian undergraduate rural coursework and placements programs designed to increase the numbers of health graduates choosing rural practice. This article reports on an online survey conducted in 2004 of health science students at the University of Tasmania, Australia, designed as a part of a long-term study to test coursework interventions by tracking students' attitudes to, and experience of, rural practice from course entry to eventual practice. All first and final year students in medicine, nursing and pharmacy in the Faculty of Health Science were invited to complete an online survey exploring the undergraduate experience of rural health. The survey was completed by 148 first year and 87 final year students, a response rate of 32.4% and 23.1% respectively. Over one-third (38.5%) of first years and 56.3% of final years indicated a general preference for rural life and practice and almost 90% expected to spend at least some of their career in rural practice. There was a statistically significant relationship between rural practice orientation and rural origin among first years, although this relationship was weaker among final years. Of first years, 82.4%, and 82.7% of final years appear to have made at least some commitment to a particular career path, and two-thirds to a particular practice environment. Rurally oriented first year students were significantly more committed to a career path than those without that orientation, although this did not hold for final years. When asked how much of their careers they expected to spend in capital city, rural, remote and/or overseas practice, both first and final year students' responses were notable for their spread. Few ruled rural or urban practice in or out entirely with most opting for middle range responses of 'most', 'about half' or 'part' of their career. Over half of both years expected to spend some time in remote practice and 75.1% of first years and 66.6% of final years some time in overseas practice. The factors rated most important in relation to career choice were those related directly to the realities of day-to-day professional practice--professional and peer support, work conditions and variety of work. Approximately three-quarters of those entering undergraduate education felt themselves to be at least 'somewhat informed' about rural practice but, apart from medical students, were little better informed by final year. The only perception of rural practice very widely shared (by more than 80% of respondents) was the possibility of developing better patient relations. Many of the other factors frequently identified as major issues in the rural practice literature--locality, flexibility, opportunities for further study, and spouse/partner and children's needs - while recognised by some, do not appear to loom large with undergraduates either in terms of career choice or perceptions of rural practice. Most final year students recalled receiving specific rural health training through rural placements and/or rural curriculum content. Overall recall of coursework was patchy, although placements were well-remembered and there was good support for increases in both. None of those who recalled undertaking rural coursework felt that it had influenced them towards a rural career and over two-thirds (n = 37, 69.8%) felt that this exposure had actually influenced them away from such a career. Three students reported that undertaking a rural placement influenced them towards, and 35 away from, a rural/remote career. The ultimate measure of the success of undergraduate interventions will be workforce changes over time. In the meantime more research is needed into undergraduate experience of rural health to provide the data needed for the careful design of coursework, detailed planning of the placement experience and long-term strategies to address those aspects of rural practice that are of most concern to these emerging health professionals.

Bioretention for highway stormwater quality improvement in Texas : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

This final report summarizes five years worth of work in evaluating the applicability and performance of : bioretention best management practices (BMPs) for highway environments in Texas. Within the five-year time frame, : the research team did a ...

Development of Advanced Technologies to Reduce Design, Fabrication and Construction Costs for Future Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiNunzio, Camillo A.; Gupta, Abhinav; Golay, Michael

2002-11-30

This report presents a summation of the third and final year of a three-year investigation into methods and technologies for substantially reducing the capital costs and total schedule for future nuclear plants. In addition, this is the final technical report for the three-year period of studies.

Entrepreneurial Knowledge and Aspirations of Dentistry Students in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brijlal, Pradeep; Brijlal, Priscilla

2013-01-01

An investigation of the intentions and knowledge of entrepreneurship of final-year university dentistry students is reported, with particular regard to the factors of gender and race. A questionnaire survey was used with final-year dentistry students, over two years, at the University of the Western Cape in South Africa. The findings show that…

Logging slash flammability after five years

Treesearch

George R. Fahnestock; John H. Dieterich

1962-01-01

This paper reports the final phase of research that has determined the flammability of slash for nine species of northern Rocky Mountain conifers at three ages. Visual characteristics, rate of fire spread, and fire intensity for 5-year-old slash were studied by essentially the same methods as had been used previously on freshly cut and 1-year-old material. Final...

NASA's Pursuit of Low-Noise Propulsion for Low-Boom Commercial Supersonic Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James; Brown, Clifford A.; Seidel, Jonathan A.

2018-01-01

Since 2006, when the Fundamental Aeronautics Program was instituted within NASA's Aeronautics Mission Directorate, there has been a Project looking at the technical barriers to commercial supersonic flight. Among the barriers is the noise produced by aircraft during landing and takeoff. Over the years that followed, research was carried out at NASA aeronautics research centers, often in collaboration with academia and industry, addressing the problem. In 2013, a high-level milestone was established, described as a Technical Challenge, with the objective of demonstrating the feasibility of a low-boom supersonic airliner that could meet current airport noise regulations. The Technical Challenge was formally called "Low Noise Propulsion for Low Boom Aircraft", and was completed in late 2016. This paper reports the technical findings from this Technical Challenge, reaching back almost 10 years to review the technologies and tools that were developed along the way. It also discusses the final aircraft configuration and propulsion systems required for a supersonic civilian aircraft to meet noise regulations using the technologies available today. Finally, the paper documents the model-scale tests that validated the acoustic performance of the study aircraft.

NASA's Pursuit of Low-Noise Propulsion for Low-Boom Commercial Supersonic Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James; Brown, Clifford A.; Seidel, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Since 2006, when the Fundamental Aeronautics Program was instituted within NASA's Aeronautics Mission Directorate, there has been a Project looking at the technical barriers to commercial supersonic flight. Among the barriers is the noise produced by aircraft during landing and takeoff. Over the years that followed, research was carried out at NASA aeronautics research centers, often in collaboration with academia and industry, addressing the problem. In 2013, a high-level milestone was established, described as a Technical Challenge, with the objective of demonstrating the feasibility of a low-boom supersonic airliner that could meet current airport noise regulations. The Technical Challenge was formally called a Low Noise Propulsion for Low Boom Aircraft and was completed in late 2016. This paper reports the technical findings from this Technical Challenge, reaching back almost 10 years to review the technologies and tools that were developed along the way. It also discusses the final aircraft configuration and propulsion systems required for a supersonic civilian aircraft to meet noise regulations using the technologies available today. Finally, the paper documents the model-scale tests that validated the acoustic performance of the study aircraft.

International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Roig, Marta; Reuman, Daniel C.; GoGwilt, Cai

2008-01-01

International migration will play an increasing role in the demographic future of most nations if fertility continues to decline globally. We developed an algorithm to project future numbers of international migrants from any country or region to any other. The proposed generalized linear model (GLM) used geographic and demographic independent variables only (the population and area of origins and destinations of migrants, the distance between origin and destination, the calendar year, and indicator variables to quantify nonrandom characteristics of individual countries). The dependent variable, yearly numbers of migrants, was quantified by 43653 reports from 11 countries of migration from 228 origins and to 195 destinations during 1960–2004. The final GLM based on all data was selected by the Bayesian information criterion. The number of migrants per year from origin to destination was proportional to (population of origin)0.86(area of origin)−0.21(population of destination)0.36(distance)−0.97, multiplied by functions of year and country-specific indicator variables. The number of emigrants from an origin depended on both its population and its population density. For a variable initial year and a fixed terminal year 2004, the parameter estimates appeared stable. Multiple R2, the fraction of variation in log numbers of migrants accounted for by the starting model, improved gradually with recentness of the data: R2 = 0.57 for data from 1960 to 2004, R2 = 0.59 for 1985–2004, R2 = 0.61 for 1995–2004, and R2 = 0.64 for 2000–2004. The migration estimates generated by the model may be embedded in deterministic or stochastic population projections. PMID:18824693

Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Xubin; Troch, Peter; Pelletier, Jon

2015-11-15

This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). We have made substantial progress in model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation, as discussed in Sections 2-4. Section 5 presents our success in data dissemination, while Section 6 discussesmore » the scientific impacts of our work. Section 7 discusses education and mentoring success of our project, while Section 8 lists our relevant DOE services. All peer-reviewed papers that acknowledged this project are listed in Section 9. Highlights of our achievements include: • We have finished 20 papers (most published already) on model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation • The global datasets developed under this project have been permanently archived and publicly available • Some of our research results have already been implemented in WRF and CLM • Patrick Broxton and Michael Brunke have received their Ph.D. • PI Zeng has served on DOE proposal review panels and DOE lab scientific focus area (SFA) review panels« less

Reflective ability and moral reasoning in final year medical students: a semi-qualitative cohort study.

PubMed

Chalmers, Patricia; Dunngalvin, Audrey; Shorten, George

2011-01-01

Moral reasoning and reflective ability are important concepts in medical education. To date, the association between reflective ability and moral reasoning in medical students has not been measured. This study tested the hypotheses that, amongst final year medical students, (1) moral reasoning and reflective ability improve over time and (2) positive change in reflective ability favourably influences moral reasoning. With Institutional Ethical approval, 56 medical students (of a class of 110) participated fully both at the beginning and end of the final academic year. Reflective ability and moral reasoning were assessed at each time using Sobral's reflection-in-learning scale (RLS), Boenink's overall reflection score and by employing Kohlberg's schema for moral reasoning. The most important findings were that (1) Students' level of reflective ability scores related to medicine decreased significantly over the course of the year, (2) students demonstrated a predominantly conventional level of moral reasoning at both the beginning and end of the year, (3) moral reasoning scores tended to decrease over the course of the year and (4) RLS is a strong predictor of change in moral reasoning over time. This study confirms the usefulness of Sobral's RLS and BOR score for evaluating moral development in the context of medical education. This study further documents regression and levelling in the moral reasoning of final year medical students and a decrease in reflective ability applied in the medical context. Further studies are required to determine factors that would favourably influence reflective ability and moral reasoning among final year medical students.

Long-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment: a new predictive mathematical method.

PubMed

Migliaretti, G; Ditaranto, S; Guiot, C; Vannelli, S; Matarazzo, P; Cappello, N; Stura, I; Cavallo, F

2018-07-01

Recombinant GH has been offered to GH-deficient (GHD) subjects for more than 30 years, in order to improve height and growth velocity in children and to enhance metabolic effects in adults. The aim of our work is to describe the long-term effect of rhGH treatment in GHD pediatric patients, suggesting a growth prediction model. A homogeneous database is defined for diagnosis and treatment modalities, based on GHD patients afferent to Hospital Regina Margherita in Turin (Italy). In this study, 232 GHD patients are selected (204 idiopathic GHD and 28 organic GHD). Each measure is shown in terms of mean with relative standard deviations (SD) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). To estimate the final height of each patient on the basis of few measures, a mathematical growth prediction model [based on Gompertzian function and a mixed method based on the radial basis functions (RBFs) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) models] was performed. The results seem to highlight the benefits of an early start of treatment, further confirming what is suggested by the literature. Generally, the RBF-PSO method shows a good reliability in the prediction of the final height. Indeed, RMSE is always lower than 4, i.e., in average the forecast will differ at most of 4 cm to the real value. In conclusion, the large and accurate database of Italian GHD patients allowed us to assess the rhGH treatment efficacy and compare the results with those obtained in other Countries. Moreover, we proposed and validated a new mathematical model forecasting the expected final height after therapy which was validated on our cohort.

Effect of naringenin in Qianggu capsule on population pharmacokinetics in Chinese women with primary osteoporosis.

PubMed

Jiannong, Wang; Junjie, Jiang; Yanming, Xie; Xu, Wei; Jianpeng, Li; Jingli, Duan; Xin, Xiong

2015-04-01

To characterize naringenin (NAR) pop- ulation pharmacokinetics (PPK) in Chinese women with primary osteoporosis. Ninety-eight female patients with primary osteoporosis from the Jingshan, Beixinqiao, Jiaodaokou, Chaoyangmen, and Donghuamen communities in Beijing, China, aged 40 to 80 years, re- ceived oral Qianggu capsules (250 mg). Blood samples were collected before and at 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24 h after administration. The concentration of NAR in the blood samples was measured using high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. PPK analyses were performed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling software (version 7.1.2, PsN3.2.12). The clearance (C1), central distribution volume (V), absorption rate constant (Ka1), peripheral distribution volume (VII), and inter-compartmental clearance (CLII) were set as parameters and estimated by the base model, covariate model, and final model. Kidney-Yang deficiency [Shenyangxu (SYAX)] and liver-kidney-Yin deficiency (Ganshenyinxu) are patterns of symptoms in Traditional Chinese Medicine that were set as covariates, along with age, height, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, and hyperlipidemia. Both stepwise forward and backward procedures were accomplished to build models. The final model was evaluated by internal and external validation, visual predictive check, bootstrap, and leverage analysis. A one compartment open model with first order degradation was the best fitted to the concentration-time profiles following oral administration of NAR. The mean of population parameters of the final model, C1, SYAX on C1, V, Ka1, CLII, and VII, were measured to be 37.6 L/h, 0.427 L, 123 L/h, 0.12/h, 0.3056, and 1.446, respectively. Inter-individual variability was estimated and SYAX was identified as a significant covariate. The population pharmacokinetic model described in this study could effectively characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of NAR following administration of a single dose of oral Qianggu capsules in Chinese women with primary osteoporosis. Among the tested covariates, only SYAX was a significant factor.

Current and future effects of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Germany - Insights from a mathematical model in a country with universal varicella vaccination.

PubMed

Horn, Johannes; Karch, André; Damm, Oliver; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Hengel, Hartmut; Greiner, Wolfgang; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2016-07-02

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is primarily known for causing varicella in childhood, but can reactivate again as herpes zoster (HZ) after a period of latency, mainly in persons older than 50 years. Universal varicella vaccination was introduced in Germany in 2004, while HZ vaccination has not been recommended yet. We aimed to quantify the potential long-term effects of universal childhood varicella vaccination and HZ vaccination of the elderly on varicella and HZ incidence in Germany over a time horizon of 100 years, using a transmission model calibrated to pre-vaccination data and validated against early post-vaccination data. Using current vaccination coverage rates of 87% (64%) with one (two) varicella vaccine dose(s), the model predicts a decrease in varicella cases by 89% for the year 2015. In the long run, the incidence reduction will stabilize at about 70%. Under the assumption of the boosting hypothesis of improved HZ protection caused by exposure to VZV, the model predicts a temporary increase in HZ incidence of up to 20% for around 50 years. HZ vaccination of the elderly with an assumed coverage of 20% has only limited effects in counteracting this temporary increase in HZ incidence. However, HZ incidence is shown to decrease in the long-term by 58% as vaccinated individuals get older and finally reach age-classes with originally high HZ incidence. Despite substantial uncertainties around several key variables, the model's results provide valuable insights that support decision-making regarding national VZV vaccination strategies.

Medicare and Medicaid programs; CY 2015 Home Health Prospective Payment System rate update; Home Health Quality Reporting Requirements; and survey and enforcement requirements for home health agencies. Final rule.

PubMed

2014-11-06

This final rule updates Home Health Prospective Payment System (HH PPS) rates, including the national, standardized 60-day episode payment rates, the national per-visit rates, and the non-routine medical supply (NRS) conversion factor under the Medicare prospective payment system for home health agencies (HHAs), effective for episodes ending on or after January 1, 2015. As required by the Affordable Care Act, this rule implements the second year of the four-year phase-in of the rebasing adjustments to the HH PPS payment rates. This rule provides information on our efforts to monitor the potential impacts of the rebasing adjustments and the Affordable Care Act mandated face-to-face encounter requirement. This rule also implements: Changes to simplify the face-to-face encounter regulatory requirements; changes to the HH PPS case-mix weights; changes to the home health quality reporting program requirements; changes to simplify the therapy reassessment timeframes; a revision to the Speech-Language Pathology (SLP) personnel qualifications; minor technical regulations text changes; and limitations on the reviewability of the civil monetary penalty provisions. Finally, this rule also discusses Medicare coverage of insulin injections under the HH PPS, the delay in the implementation of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM), and a HH value-based purchasing (HH VBP) model.

Long-term soil organic carbon changes in cereal and ley rotations: model testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kynding Borgen, Signe; Dörsch, Peter; Krogstad, Tore; Azzaroli Bleken, Marina

2015-04-01

Reliable modeling of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in agroecosystems is crucial to define mitigation strategies related to crop management on the farm scale as well as the regional scale. International climate agreements and national political decisions rely to a large extent on the National Greenhouse gas Inventory Reports that are submitted annually to the UNFCCC. However, lower tier methods are used to estimate SOC changes on cropland in most country reports. The application of mechanistic models in national greenhouse gas inventory estimation requires proper model testing against measurements in order to verify the estimated emissions. Few long-term field experiments measuring SOC stock changes have been conducted in Norway. We evaluate the performance of the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) in simulating SOC changes over 60 years in a field experiment conducted in Ås from 1953-2013. The site is located in south-eastern Norway, on the boarder of the boreal and temperate climate zone, where the majority of the country's grain production occurs. The field trial consisted of four rotations: I) continuous cereal, II) cereal + row crops, III) 2 years of ley + 4 years of cereal, IV) 4 years of ley + 2 years of cereal, and four treatments per rotation: a) low NPK, b) high NPK, c) low NPK + FYM, and d) straw (on rotations I and II) or high NPK + FYM (on rotations III and IV). The annual external modifying factor of the decomposition rate was calculated based on daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation, and adjusted for soil type and crop management according to default ICBM calibration. We present results of simulated C changes for the long term plots and explore options to improve parameter calibration. Finally, we provide suggestions for how problems regarding model verification can be handled with when applying the model on a national scale for inventory reporting.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian model selection for disease mapping

PubMed Central

Carroll, R; Lawson, AB; Faes, C; Kirby, RS; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2016-01-01

Spatio-temporal analysis of small area health data often involves choosing a fixed set of predictors prior to the final model fit. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach of Bayesian model selection to implement model selection for certain areas of the study region as well as certain years in the study time line. Here, we examine the usefulness of this approach by way of a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a case study. Our results suggest that a special case of the model selection methods, a mixture model allowing a weight parameter to indicate if the appropriate linear predictor is spatial, spatio-temporal, or a mixture of the two, offers the best option to fitting these spatio-temporal models. In addition, the case study illustrates the effectiveness of this mixture model within the model selection setting by easily accommodating lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables to select a predominantly spatio-temporal linear predictor. PMID:28070156

Refined images of the crust around the SAFOD drill site derived from combined active and passive seismic experiment data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roecker, S.; Thurber, C.; Shuler, A.; Liu, Y.; Zhang, H.; Powell, L.

2005-12-01

Five years of effort collecting and analyzing earthquake and explosion data in the vicinity of the SAFOD drill site culminated in the determination of the final trajectory for summer 2005's Phase 2 drilling. The trajectory was defined to optimize the chance of reaching one of two adjacent M2 "target earthquake" fault patches, whose centroids are separated horizontally by about 50 meters, with one or more satellite coreholes planned for Phase 3 drilling in summer 2007. Some of the most critical data for the final targeting were explosion data recorded on a Paulsson Geophysical Services, Inc., 80-element 3-component borehole string and earthquake data recorded on a pair of 3-component Duke University geophones in the SAFOD borehole. We are now utilizing the full 5-year dataset to refine our knowledge of three-dimensional (3D) crustal structure, wave propagation characteristics, and earthquake locations around SAFOD. These efforts are proceeding in parallel in several directions. Improved picks from a careful reanalysis of shear waves observed on the PASO array will be used in deriving an improved tomographic 3D wavespeed model. We are using finite-difference waveform modeling to investigate waveform complexity for earthquakes in and near the target region, including fault-zone head waves and strong secondary S-wave arrivals. A variety of waveform imaging methods are being applied to image fine-scale 3D structure and subsurface scatterers, including fault zones. In the process, we aim to integrate geophysical logging and geologic observations with our models to try to associate the target region earthquake activity, which is occurring on two fault strands about 280 meters apart, with shear zones encountered in the SAFOD Phase-2 borehole. These observations will be agumented and the target earthquake locations further refined over the next 2 years through downhole and surface recording of natural earthquakes and surface shots conducted at PASO station locations.

An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens.

PubMed

Norman, R A; Worton, A J; Gilbert, L

2016-06-01

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Pain Severity in Relation to the Final Menstrual Period in a Prospective Multiethnic Observational Cohort: Results from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN)

PubMed Central

Lee, Yvonne C.; Karlamangla, Arun S.; Yu, Zhi; Liu, Chih-Chin; Finkelstein, Joel S.; Greendale, Gail A.; Harlow, Siobán D.; Solomon, Daniel H.

2016-01-01

The development of pain is common in midlife, resulting in increased healthcare utilization and costs. The aim of this study was to determine the longitudinal trajectory of overall bodily pain among women during the transition between the reproductive years and menopause. We conducted analyses on a community-based, longitudinal cohort of women enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. One thousand four hundred and ninety-five women met inclusion criteria, including: 1) defined date of the final menstrual period (FMP) and 2) complete data on SF-36 bodily pain. The primary exposure was time to/from FMP. The primary outcome was the rate of change in SF-36 bodily pain, measured on a scale of 0-100 with 100 being the most severe pain. We performed within-person trajectory analyses using piecewise regression following nonparametric modeling of functional forms. Mean bodily pain score at the time of the FMP was 29. Mean bodily pain increased at a rate of 0.26 per year during the transmenopause (the interval spanning 4.5 years prior to the FMP through 0.5 years after FMP), and decreased at a rate of 0.23 per year after that. Depression and sleep problems were associated with greater increases in pain during the late reproductive years, whereas abdominal cramps at baseline predicted greater decreases in pain during the late reproductive years. Perspectives This article demonstrates that bodily pain increases during the transmenopause and then diminishes during postmenopause. These differences may reflect differences in underlying mechanisms of pain in the two periods. Although mean changes were small and unlikely to be clinically meaningful, the magnitude of change varied across subgroups of women. PMID:27836812

Predictors of hip fracture mortality at a general hospital in South Brazil: an unacceptable surgical delay

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Tiango Aguiar; Premaor, Melissa Orlandin; Larangeira, João Alberto; Brito, Luiz Giulian; Luft, Michel; Guterres, Leonardo Waihrich; Monticielo, Odirlei André

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Hip fractures have been associated with increased mortality in the elderly. Several risk factors such as the time between the insult and the surgical repair have been associated with hip fracture mortality. Nevertheless, the risk of delayed surgical repair remains controversial. Few studies have examined this issue in Brazil. The aim of this study was to study the risk factors for death one year after hip fracture and in-hospital stay at a tertiary hospital in South Brazil. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was carried out from April 2005 to April 2011 at a tertiary university hospital at Santa Maria, Brazil. Subjects admitted for hip fracture who were 65 years of age or older were followed for one year. Information about fracture type, age, gender, clinical comorbidities, time to surgery, discharge, and American Society of Anesthesiologists score were recorded. Death was evaluated during the hospital stay and at one year. RESULTS: Four hundred and eighteen subjects were included in the final analysis. Of these, 4.3% died in-hospital and 15.3% were dead at one year. Time to surgery, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, Ischemic Heart Disease, and in-hospital stay were associated with death at one year in the univariate analysis. The American Society of Anesthesiologists score and time to surgery were one-year mortality predictors in the final regression model. In-hospital death was associated with American Society of Anesthesiologists score and age. CONCLUSION: Time to surgery is worryingly high at the South Brazil tertiary public health center studied here. Surgical delay is a risk factor that has the potential to be modified to improve mortality. PMID:24714833

Prediction of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence in the Japanese population: the JPHC study cohort II.

PubMed

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-15

Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10-year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed-up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors in combination with serum anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person-years of follow-up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism-corrected c-index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's χ(2) test: 14.78; p values = 0.06). Estimates of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check-up visits or participate in screening programmes. © 2015 UICC.

HbA1c variability in type 2 diabetes is associated with the occurrence of new-onset albuminuria within three years.

PubMed

Dorajoo, Sreemanee Raaj; Ng, Joceline Shi Ling; Goh, Jessica Hui Fen; Lim, Su Chi; Yap, Chun Wei; Chan, Alexandre; Lee, Joyce Yu Chia

2017-06-01

To evaluate the association between HbA1c coefficient of variation (HbA1c-CV) and 3-year new-onset albuminuria risk. A retrospective cohort study involving 716 normoalbuminuric type 2 diabetes patients was conducted between 2010 and 2014. HbA1c-CV was used to categorize patients into low, moderate or high variability groups. Multivariate logistic models were constructed and validated. Integrated discrimination (IDI) and net reclassification (NRI) improvement indices were used to quantify the added predictive value of HbA1c-CV. The mean age of our cohort was 56.1±12.9years with a baseline HbA1c of 8.3±1.3%. Over 3-years of follow-up, 35.2% (n=252) developed albuminuria. An incremental risk of albuminuria was observed with moderate (6.68-13.43%) and high (above 13.44%) HbA1c-CV categories demonstrating adjusted odds ratios of 1.63 (1.12-2.38) and 3.80 (2.10-6.97) for 3-year new-onset albuminuria, respectively. Including HbA1c-CV for 3-year new-onset albuminuria prediction improved model discrimination (IDI: 0.023, NRI: 0.293, p<0.05). The final model had a C-statistic of 0.760±0.018 on validation. HbA1c-CV improves 3-year prediction of new-onset albuminuria. Together with mean HbA1c, baseline urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and presence of hypertension, accurate 3-year new-onset albuminuria prediction may be possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PG 1553+113: Five Years Of Observations With Magic

DOE PAGES

J., Aleksić

2012-03-05

We present the results of five years (2005-2009) of MAGIC observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 at very high energies (VHEs; E > 100 GeV). Power-law fits of the individual years are compatible with a steady mean photon index Γ = 4.27 ± 0.14. In the last three years of data, the flux level above 150 GeV shows a clear variability (probability of constant flux < 0.001%). The flux variations are modest, lying in the range from 4% to 11% of the Crab Nebula flux. Simultaneous optical data also show only modest variability that seems to be correlatedmore » with VHE gamma-ray variability. We also performed a temporal analysis of (all available) simultaneous Fermi/Large Area Telescope data of PG 1553+113 above 1 GeV, which reveals hints of variability in the 2008-2009 sample. Finally, we present a combination of the mean spectrum measured at VHEs with archival data available for other wavelengths. The mean spectral energy distribution can be modeled with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, which gives the main physical parameters governing the VHE emission in the blazar jet.« less

An early colonisation pathway into northwest Australia 70-60,000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norman, Kasih; Inglis, Josha; Clarkson, Chris; Faith, J. Tyler; Shulmeister, James; Harris, Daniel

2018-01-01

Colonisation of Sahul 70-60 thousand years ago (kya) represents the first great maritime migration undertaken by anatomically modern humans in one of the final phases of the Out of Africa dispersal. Visual connectivity network analyses, agent-based simulations and ocean current modelling reveal that modern humans could follow numerous northern and southern migration pathways into Sahul. Our results support a southern route out of Africa through South Asia with entry into ISEA through the Banda Arc, culminating in an early colonisation of Sahul on the northwest shelf. Our results show multiple colonisation events through other entry points were also probable, and raise interesting possibilities for complex regional migration and population histories.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

Institutional Computing: Final Report Quantum Effects on Cosmology: Probing Physics Beyond the Standard Model with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paris, Mark W.

The current one-year project allocation (w17 burst) supports the continuation of research performed in the two-year Institutional Computing allocation (w14 bigbangnucleosynthesis). The project has supported development and production runs resulting in several publications[1, 2, 3, 4] in peer-review journals and talks. Most signi cantly, we have recently achieved a signi cant improvement in code performance. This improvement was essential to the prospect of making further progress on this heretofore unsolved multiphysics problem that lies at the intersection of nuclear and particle theory and the kinetic theory of energy transport in a system with internal (quantum) degrees of freedom.

Construction Theory and Noise Analysis Method of Global CGCS2000 Coordinate Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Z.; Wang, F.; Bai, J.; Li, Z.

2018-04-01

The definition, renewal and maintenance of geodetic datum has been international hot issue. In recent years, many countries have been studying and implementing modernization and renewal of local geodetic reference coordinate frame. Based on the precise result of continuous observation for recent 15 years from state CORS (continuously operating reference system) network and the mainland GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) network between 1999 and 2007, this paper studies the construction of mathematical model of the Global CGCS2000 frame, mainly analyzes the theory and algorithm of two-step method for Global CGCS2000 Coordinate Frame formulation. Finally, the noise characteristic of the coordinate time series are estimated quantitatively with the criterion of maximum likelihood estimation.

Mikrobielle Kurzzeitteste zur Bestimmung der mutagenen Potenz chemischer Substanzen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gericke, Dietmar

1983-04-01

During the last 20 years it became much more interesting to test new chemicals as fast as possible for their carcinogenic potency. Therefore new test models were developed. Mutagenicity seems to be one sign for carcinogenicity. Therefore test systems using microorganisms were studied which are influenced by mutagenic substances. These systems are described, first of all the Ames-Test, using revertants of Salmonella typhimurium, secondly the Escherichia coli system deficient of DNA-polymerase A (DNA-Pol A-). The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae was introduced some years ago and finally the Neurospora crassa system serves as an additional test to define exactly the localisation of mutations. The tests and their problems are discussed.

26 CFR 1.411(d)-3 - Section 411(d)(6) protected benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... an annual benefit of 2% of career average pay times years of service commencing at normal retirement... an annual benefit of 1.3% of final pay times years of service, with final pay computed as the average... has 16 years of service, M's career average pay is $37,500, and the average of M's highest 3...

Techniques for Targeted Fermi-GBM Follow-Up of Gravitational-Wave Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackburn, L.; Camp, J.; Briggs, M. S.; Connaughton, V.; Jenke, P.; Christensen, N.; Veitch, J.

2012-01-01

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors are projected to come online 2015 2016, reaching a final sensitivity sufficient to observe dozens of binary neutron star mergers per year by 2018. We present a fully-automated, targeted search strategy for prompt gamma-ray counterparts in offline Fermi-GBM data. The multi-detector method makes use of a detailed model response of the instrument, and benefits from time and sky location information derived from the gravitational-wave signal.

Research on Estimates of Xi’an City Life Garbage Pay-As-You-Throw Based on Two-part Tariff method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaobo, Shi; Xinxin, Zhao; Fuli, Zheng

2017-05-01

Domestic waste whose pricing can’t be separated from the pricing of public economics category is quasi public goods. Based on Two-part Tariff method on urban public utilities, this paper designs the pricing model in order to match the charging method and estimates the standard of pay-as-you-throw using data of the past five years in Xi’an. Finally, this paper summarizes the main results and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

Development of muon ring coolers, neutrino factories and supersymmetric Higgs factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, David B.

2003-08-01

Over the past few years or so a key new development is the invention of ring coolers for muon cooling. In particular, these rings demonstrate robust cooling of the longitudinal phase space. We discuss the quadrupole or UCLA ring cooler and the prospects to make this a final cooler to reduce the transceiver emittance to the value required for a mu+mu- collider. This will lead to a Higgs factory for the A0/H0 in supersymmetry models.

Development of Muon Ring Coolers, Neutrino Factories and Supersymmetric Higgs Factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, David B.

2002-12-01

Over the past few years or so a key new development is the invention of Ring Coolers for muon cooling. In particular these rings demonstrate robust cooling of the longitudinal phase space. We discuss the Quadrupole or UCLA Ring Cooler and the prospects to make this a final cooler to reduce the tranceiver emittance to the value required for a μ+ μ- collider. This will lead to a Higgs Factory for the A0/H0 in supersymmetry models.

Perfect relativistic magnetohydrodynamics around black holes in horizon penetrating coordinates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherubini, Christian; Filippi, Simonetta; Loppini, Alessandro; Moradi, Rahim; Ruffini, Remo; Wang, Yu; Xue, She-Sheng

2018-03-01

Plasma accreting processes on black holes represent a central problem for relativistic astrophysics. In this context, here we specifically revisit the classical Ruffini-Wilson work developed for analytically modeling via geodesic equations the accretion of perfect magnetized plasma on a rotating Kerr black hole. Introducing the horizon penetrating coordinates found by Doran 25 years later, we revisit the entire approach studying Maxwell invariants, electric and magnetic fields, volumetric charge density and electromagnetic total energy. We finally discuss the physical implications of this analysis.