Developing a Screening Model to Establish Human Risk from Glacial Meltwater Release of Legacy Organochlorine Pollutants at the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miner, K. R.

2017-12-01

Organochlorine pollutants (OCPs) banned globally by the Stockholm Convention in 2004 are reemerging from melting glaciers in numerous alpine ecosystems. Despite the known OCP influx from glaciers, a study of human risk from uptake of pesticides in glacial meltwater has never been attempted. Our study qualifies human uptake routes and quantifies risk utilizing published meltwater data from the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps in combination with methodology established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Relatively high concentrations of OCPs in Silvretta glacier meltwater reflect proximity to use near high density populations and provide the best estimate of a 95th percentile human risk scenario. This screening level model assesses direct PCB risk to humans through consumption of fish tissue and meltwater. Our model shows a risk for both cancer and non-cancer disease impacts to children with lifetime exposure to glacial meltwater and an average local fish consumption. For adults with an abbreviated 30 year exposure timeframe, the risk for non-cancer effects is negligible and cancer effects are only barely above screening level. Populations that consume higher quantities of local fish are at greater risk, with additional challenges borne by children. Further direct study into the individual level risk to Swiss residents from glacial meltwater pollution is deemed necessary by our screening study.

An integrated simulation and optimization approach for managing human health risks of atmospheric pollutants by coal-fired power plants.

PubMed

Dai, C; Cai, X H; Cai, Y P; Guo, H C; Sun, W; Tan, Q; Huang, G H

2014-06-01

This research developed a simulation-aided nonlinear programming model (SNPM). This model incorporated the consideration of pollutant dispersion modeling, and the management of coal blending and the related human health risks within a general modeling framework In SNPM, the simulation effort (i.e., California puff [CALPUFF]) was used to forecast the fate of air pollutants for quantifying the health risk under various conditions, while the optimization studies were to identify the optimal coal blending strategies from a number of alternatives. To solve the model, a surrogate-based indirect search approach was proposed, where the support vector regression (SVR) was used to create a set of easy-to-use and rapid-response surrogates for identifying the function relationships between coal-blending operating conditions and health risks. Through replacing the CALPUFF and the corresponding hazard quotient equation with the surrogates, the computation efficiency could be improved. The developed SNPM was applied to minimize the human health risk associated with air pollutants discharged from Gaojing and Shijingshan power plants in the west of Beijing. Solution results indicated that it could be used for reducing the health risk of the public in the vicinity of the two power plants, identifying desired coal blending strategies for decision makers, and considering a proper balance between coal purchase cost and human health risk. A simulation-aided nonlinear programming model (SNPM) is developed. It integrates the advantages of CALPUFF and nonlinear programming model. To solve the model, a surrogate-based indirect search approach based on the combination of support vector regression and genetic algorithm is proposed. SNPM is applied to reduce the health risk caused by air pollutants discharged from Gaojing and Shijingshan power plants in the west of Beijing. Solution results indicate that it is useful for generating coal blending schemes, reducing the health risk of the public, reflecting the trade-offbetween coal purchase cost and health risk.

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Thirst-dependent risk preferences in monkeys identify a primitive form of wealth

PubMed Central

Yamada, Hiroshi; Tymula, Agnieszka; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.

2013-01-01

Experimental economic techniques have been widely used to evaluate human risk attitudes, but how these measured attitudes relate to overall individual wealth levels is unclear. Previous noneconomic work has addressed this uncertainty in animals by asking the following: (i) Do our close evolutionary relatives share both our risk attitudes and our degree of economic rationality? And (ii) how does the amount of food or water one holds (a nonpecuniary form of “wealth”) alter risk attitudes in these choosers? Unfortunately, existing noneconomic studies have provided conflicting insights from an economic point of view. We therefore used standard techniques from human experimental economics to measure monkey risk attitudes for water rewards as a function of blood osmolality (an objective measure of how much water the subjects possess). Early in training, monkeys behaved randomly, consistently violating first-order stochastic dominance and monotonicity. After training, they behaved like human choosers—technically consistent in their choices and weakly risk averse (i.e., risk averse or risk neutral on average)—suggesting that well-trained monkeys can serve as a model for human choice behavior. As with attitudes about money in humans, these risk attitudes were strongly wealth dependent; as the animals became “poorer,” risk aversion increased, a finding incompatible with some models of wealth and risk in human decision making. PMID:24019461

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

PubMed

Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

2016-03-01

In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in Canadian broiler chicken breast from retail to consumption.

PubMed

Smadi, Hanan; Sargeant, Jan M

2013-02-01

The current quantitative risk assessment model followed the framework proposed by the Codex Alimentarius to provide an estimate of the risk of human salmonellosis due to consumption of chicken breasts which were bought from Canadian retail stores and prepared in Canadian domestic kitchens. The model simulated the level of Salmonella contamination on chicken breasts throughout the retail-to-table pathway. The model used Canadian input parameter values, where available, to represent risk of salmonellosis. From retail until consumption, changes in the concentration of Salmonella on each chicken breast were modeled using equations for growth and inactivation. The model predicted an average of 318 cases of salmonellosis per 100,000 consumers per year. Potential reasons for this overestimation were discussed. A sensitivity analysis showed that concentration of Salmonella on chicken breasts at retail and food hygienic practices in private kitchens such as cross-contamination due to not washing cutting boards (or utensils) and hands after handling raw meat along with inadequate cooking contributed most significantly to the risk of human salmonellosis. The outcome from this model emphasizes that responsibility for protection from Salmonella hazard on chicken breasts is a shared responsibility. Data needed for a comprehensive Canadian Salmonella risk assessment were identified for future research. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Visualization of risk of radiogenic second cancer in the organs and tissues of the human body.

PubMed

Zhang, Rui; Mirkovic, Dragan; Newhauser, Wayne D

2015-04-28

Radiogenic second cancer is a common late effect in long term cancer survivors. Currently there are few methods or tools available to visually evaluate the spatial distribution of risks of radiogenic late effects in the human body. We developed a risk visualization method and demonstrated it for radiogenic second cancers in tissues and organs of one patient treated with photon volumetric modulated arc therapy and one patient treated with proton craniospinal irradiation. Treatment plans were generated using radiotherapy treatment planning systems (TPS) and dose information was obtained from TPS. Linear non-threshold risk coefficients for organs at risk of second cancer incidence were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionization Radiation VII report. Alternative risk models including linear exponential model and linear plateau model were also examined. The predicted absolute lifetime risk distributions were visualized together with images of the patient anatomy. The risk distributions of second cancer for the two patients were visually presented. The risk distributions varied with tissue, dose, dose-risk model used, and the risk distribution could be similar to or very different from the dose distribution. Our method provides a convenient way to directly visualize and evaluate the risks of radiogenic second cancer in organs and tissues of the human body. In the future, visual assessment of risk distribution could be an influential determinant for treatment plan scoring.

Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenkate, Thomas D.

1998-01-01

Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

Predicting Risk Sensitivity in Humans and Lower Animals: Risk as Variance or Coefficient of Variation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Elke U.; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee

2004-01-01

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

Incorporating biologically based models into assessments of risk from chemical contaminants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bull, R. J.; Conolly, R. B.; De Marini, D. M.; MacPhail, R. C.; Ohanian, E. V.; Swenberg, J. A.

1993-01-01

The general approach to assessment of risk from chemical contaminants in drinking water involves three steps: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and dose-response assessment. Traditionally, the risks to humans associated with different levels of a chemical have been derived from the toxic responses observed in animals. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that further information is needed if risks to humans are to be assessed accurately. Biologically based models help clarify the dose-response relationship and reduce uncertainty.

Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final Report for Cooperative Agreement. This report describes and demonstrates techniques necessary to extrapolate and incorporate in vitro derived metabolic rate constants in PBPK models. It also includes two case study examples designed to demonstrate the applicability of such data for health risk assessment and addresses the quantification, extrapolation and interpretation of advanced biochemical information on human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism for risk assessment application. It comprises five chapters; topics and results covered in the first four chapters have been published in the peer reviewed scientific literature. Topics covered include: Data Quality ObjectivesExperimental FrameworkRequired DataTwo example case studies that develop and incorporate in vitro metabolic rate constants in PBPK models designed to quantify human interindividual variability to better direct the choice of uncertainty factors for health risk assessment. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for risk assors to use when quantifying, extrapolating, and interpretating advanced biochemical information about human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism.

Cognition in Space Workshop. 1; Metrics and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woolford, Barbara; Fielder, Edna

2005-01-01

"Cognition in Space Workshop I: Metrics and Models" was the first in a series of workshops sponsored by NASA to develop an integrated research and development plan supporting human cognition in space exploration. The workshop was held in Chandler, Arizona, October 25-27, 2004. The participants represented academia, government agencies, and medical centers. This workshop addressed the following goal of the NASA Human System Integration Program for Exploration: to develop a program to manage risks due to human performance and human error, specifically ones tied to cognition. Risks range from catastrophic error to degradation of efficiency and failure to accomplish mission goals. Cognition itself includes memory, decision making, initiation of motor responses, sensation, and perception. Four subgoals were also defined at the workshop as follows: (1) NASA needs to develop a human-centered design process that incorporates standards for human cognition, human performance, and assessment of human interfaces; (2) NASA needs to identify and assess factors that increase risks associated with cognition; (3) NASA needs to predict risks associated with cognition; and (4) NASA needs to mitigate risk, both prior to actual missions and in real time. This report develops the material relating to these four subgoals.

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

Contribution of nonprimate animal models in understanding the etiology of schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Lazar, Noah L.; Neufeld, Richard W.J.; Cain, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Schizophrenia is a severe psychiatric disorder that is characterized by positive and negative symptoms and cognitive impairments. The etiology of the disorder is complex, and it is thought to follow a multifactorial threshold model of inheritance with genetic and neurodevelopmental contributions to risk. Human studies are particularly useful in capturing the richness of the phenotype, but they are often limited to the use of correlational approaches. By assessing behavioural abnormalities in both humans and rodents, nonprimate animal models of schizophrenia provide unique insight into the etiology and mechanisms of the disorder. This review discusses the phenomenology and etiology of schizophrenia and the contribution of current nonprimate animal models with an emphasis on how research with models of neurotransmitter dysregulation, environmental risk factors, neurodevelopmental disruption and genetic risk factors can complement the literature on schizophrenia in humans. PMID:21247514

Using a cellular model to explore human-facilitated spread of risk of EAB in Minnesota

Treesearch

Anantha Prasad; Louis Iverson; Matthew Peters; Steve Matthews

2011-01-01

The Emerald Ash Borer has made inroads to Minnesota in the past two years, killing ash trees. We use our spatially explicit cell based model called EAB-SHIFT to calculate the risk of infestation owing to flight characteristics and short distance movement of the insect (insect flight model, IFM), and the human facilitated agents like roads, campgrounds etc. (insect ride...

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures.

PubMed

Harrill, Alison H; McAllister, Kimberly A

2017-08-15

This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene-environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274.

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Harrill, Alison H.

2017-01-01

Background: This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene–environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. Objectives: This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. Methods: This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. Discussion: These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene–environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. Conclusions: These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274 PMID:28886592

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROOVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

EPA Science Inventory

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

Jeffry D. Schroeter, Curriculum in Toxicology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599; Ted B. Martonen, ETD, NHEERL, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711; Do...

Human Injury Criteria for Underwater Blasts

PubMed Central

Lance, Rachel M.; Capehart, Bruce; Kadro, Omar; Bass, Cameron R.

2015-01-01

Underwater blasts propagate further and injure more readily than equivalent air blasts. Development of effective personal protection and countermeasures, however, requires knowledge of the currently unknown human tolerance to underwater blast. Current guidelines for prevention of underwater blast injury are not based on any organized injury risk assessment, human data or experimental data. The goal of this study was to derive injury risk assessments for underwater blast using well-characterized human underwater blast exposures in the open literature. The human injury dataset was compiled using 34 case reports on underwater blast exposure to 475 personnel, dating as early as 1916. Using severity ratings, computational reconstructions of the blasts, and survival information from a final set of 262 human exposures, injury risk models were developed for both injury severity and risk of fatality as functions of blast impulse and blast peak overpressure. Based on these human data, we found that the 50% risk of fatality from underwater blast occurred at 302±16 kPa-ms impulse. Conservatively, there is a 20% risk of pulmonary injury at a kilometer from a 20 kg charge. From a clinical point of view, this new injury risk model emphasizes the large distances possible for potential pulmonary and gut injuries in water compared with air. This risk value is the first impulse-based fatality risk calculated from human data. The large-scale inconsistency between the blast exposures in the case reports and the guidelines available in the literature prior to this study further underscored the need for this new guideline derived from the unique dataset of actual injuries in this study. PMID:26606655

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey

2015-08-01

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is oftenmore » secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.« less

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

PubMed

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

Integrating Human Factors into Space Vehicle Processing for Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodbury, Sarah; Richards, Kimberly J.

2008-01-01

This presentation will discuss the multiple projects performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance (HEMAP) Lab, improvements that resulted from analysis, and the future applications of the HEMAP Lab for risk assessment by evaluating human/machine interaction and ergonomic designs.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2016-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2015-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a documented concern for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

INTEGRATING EARTH OBSERVATION AND FIELD DATA INTO A LYME DISEASE MODEL TO MAP AND PREDICT RISKS TO BIODIVERSITY AND HUMAN HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

DW-75-92243901
Title: Integrating Earth Observation and Field Data into a Lyme Disease Model to Map and Predict Risks to Biodiversity and Human HealthDurland Fish, Maria Diuk-Wasser, Joe Roman, Yongtao Guan, Brad Lobitz, Rama Nemani, Joe Piesman, Montira J. Pongsiri, F...

Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final Report for Cooperative Agreement. Th...

Modeling the Diagnostic Criteria for Alcohol Dependence with Genetic Animal Models

PubMed Central

Kendler, Kenneth S.; Hitzemann, Robert J.

2012-01-01

A diagnosis of alcohol dependence (AD) using the DSM-IV-R is categorical, based on an individual’s manifestation of three or more symptoms from a list of seven. AD risk can be traced to both genetic and environmental sources. Most genetic studies of AD risk implicitly assume that an AD diagnosis represents a single underlying genetic factor. We recently found that the criteria for an AD diagnosis represent three somewhat distinct genetic paths to individual risk. Specifically, heavy use and tolerance versus withdrawal and continued use despite problems reflected separate genetic factors. However, some data suggest that genetic risk for AD is adequately described with a single underlying genetic risk factor. Rodent animal models for alcohol-related phenotypes typically target discrete aspects of the complex human AD diagnosis. Here, we review the literature derived from genetic animal models in an attempt to determine whether they support a single-factor or multiple-factor genetic structure. We conclude that there is modest support in the animal literature that alcohol tolerance and withdrawal reflect distinct genetic risk factors, in agreement with our human data. We suggest areas where more research could clarify this attempt to align the rodent and human data. PMID:21910077

COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

EPA Science Inventory

A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

Use of surrogate indicators for the evaluation of potential health risks due to poor urban water quality: A Bayesian Network approach.

PubMed

Wijesiri, Buddhi; Deilami, Kaveh; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-02-01

Urban water pollution poses risks of waterborne infectious diseases. Therefore, in order to improve urban liveability, effective pollution mitigation strategies are required underpinned by predictions generated using water quality models. However, the lack of reliability in current modelling practices detrimentally impacts planning and management decision making. This research study adopted a novel approach in the form of Bayesian Networks to model urban water quality to better investigate the factors that influence risks to human health. The application of Bayesian Networks was found to enhance the integration of quantitative and qualitative spatially distributed data for analysing the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors using three surrogate indicators of human health risk, namely, turbidity, total nitrogen and fats/oils. Expert knowledge was found to be of critical importance in assessing the interdependent relationships between health risk indicators and influential factors. The spatial variability maps of health risk indicators developed enabled the initial identification of high risk areas in which flooding was found to be the most significant influential factor in relation to human health risk. Surprisingly, population density was found to be less significant in influencing health risk indicators. These high risk areas in turn can be subjected to more in-depth investigations instead of the entire region, saving time and resources. It was evident that decision making in relation to the design of pollution mitigation strategies needs to account for the impact of landscape characteristics on water quality, which can be related to risk to human health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and management of human health risk from toxic metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater arising from anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-02-01

Toxic metals (TMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban stormwater pose risk to human health, thereby constraining its reuse potential. Based on the hypothesis that stormwater quality is primarily influenced by anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion, the primary focus of the research study was to analyse the impacts on human health risk from TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater and thereby develop a quantitative risk assessment model. The study found that anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion exert influence on the risk posed by TMs and PAHs in stormwater from commercial and residential areas. Motor vehicle related businesses (FVS) and traffic congestion (TC) were identified as two parameters which need to be included as independent variables to improve the model. Based on the study outcomes, approaches for mitigating the risk associated with TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater are discussed. Additionally, a roadmap is presented for the assessment and management of the risk arising from these pollutants. The study outcomes are expected to contribute to reducing the human health risk associated urban stormwater pollution and thereby enhance its reuse potential. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for oral exposures to chromium in mice, rats, and humans to address temporal variation and sensitive populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirman, C.R., E-mail: ckirman@summittoxicology.com

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] in mice, rats, and humans developed previously (Kirman et al., 2012, 2013), was updated to reflect an improved understanding of the toxicokinetics of the gastrointestinal tract following oral exposures. Improvements were made to: (1) the reduction model, which describes the pH-dependent reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in the gastrointestinal tract under both fasted and fed states; (2) drinking water pattern simulations, to better describe dosimetry in rodents under the conditions of the NTP cancer bioassay; and (3) parameterize the model to characterize potentially sensitive human populations. Important species differences, sourcesmore » of non-linear toxicokinetics, and human variation are identified and discussed within the context of human health risk assessment. - Highlights: • An improved version of the PBPK model for Cr(VI) toxicokinetics was developed. • The model incorporates data collected to fill important data gaps. • Model predictions for specific age groups and sensitive subpopulations are provided. • Implications to human health risk assessment are discussed.« less

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

2003-01-01

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

OVERVIEW OF THE U.S. EPA NERL'S HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Computational modeling of human exposure to environmental pollutants is one of the primary activities of the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). Assessment of human exposures is a critical part of the overall risk assessment para...

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF SOIL CD RISK TO HUMANS AND LOW COST METHODS TO PHYTOEXTRACT CD FROM CONTAMINATED SOILS TO PREVENT SOIL CD RISKS

EPA Science Inventory

We have described a new paradigm for human risk from soil Cd that reflects many years of agronomic, nutritional and toxicological research. This new model for soil Cd risk reflects the ability of rice to accumulate soil Cd in grain while excluding Fe, Zn and Ca even though the s...

Probabilistic framework for assessing the arsenic exposure risk from cooked fish consumption.

PubMed

Ling, Min-Pei; Wu, Chiu-Hua; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Chen, Wei-Yu; Chio, Chia-Pin; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

2014-12-01

Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose-response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is <10(-6) excess bladder cancer risk level for lifetime exposure; as the incidence ratios of liver and lung cancers are generally acceptable at risk ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-4), the consumption of baked As-contaminated fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.

The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

PubMed Central

Messina, Jane P.; Pigott, David M.; Golding, Nick; Duda, Kirsten A.; Brownstein, John S.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Gibson, Harry; Robinson, Timothy P.; Gilbert, Marius; William Wint, G. R.; Nuttall, Patricia A.; Gething, Peter W.; Myers, Monica F.; George, Dylan B.; Hay, Simon I.

2015-01-01

Background Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. Methods We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. Results A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. Conclusions These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans. PMID:26142451

Drivers and hotspots of extinction risk in marine mammals.

PubMed

Davidson, Ana D; Boyer, Alison G; Kim, Hwahwan; Pompa-Mansilla, Sandra; Hamilton, Marcus J; Costa, Daniel P; Ceballos, Gerardo; Brown, James H

2012-02-28

The world's oceans are undergoing profound changes as a result of human activities. However, the consequences of escalating human impacts on marine mammal biodiversity remain poorly understood. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) identifies 25% of marine mammals as at risk of extinction, but the conservation status of nearly 40% of marine mammals remains unknown due to insufficient data. Predictive models of extinction risk are crucial to informing present and future conservation needs, yet such models have not been developed for marine mammals. In this paper, we: (i) used powerful machine-learning and spatial-modeling approaches to understand the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of marine mammal extinction risk; (ii) used this information to predict risk across all marine mammals, including IUCN "Data Deficient" species; and (iii) conducted a spatially explicit assessment of these results to understand how risk is distributed across the world's oceans. Rate of offspring production was the most important predictor of risk. Additional predictors included taxonomic group, small geographic range area, and small social group size. Although the interaction of both intrinsic and extrinsic variables was important in predicting risk, overall, intrinsic traits were more important than extrinsic variables. In addition to the 32 species already on the IUCN Red List, our model identified 15 more species, suggesting that 37% of all marine mammals are at risk of extinction. Most at-risk species occur in coastal areas and in productive regions of the high seas. We identify 13 global hotspots of risk and show how they overlap with human impacts and Marine Protected Areas.

Measurement of Libby Amphibole (LA) Elongated Particle Dissolution Rates and Alteration of Size/Shape Distributions in Support of Human Dosimetry Model Development and Relative Potency Determinations

EPA Science Inventory

To maximize the value of toxicological data in development of human health risk assessment models of inhaled elongated mineral particles, improvements in human dosimetry modeling are needed. In order to extend the dosimetry model of deposited fibers (Asgharian et aI., Johnson 201...

Safety Metrics for Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy G; Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems.This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understandmore » from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.« less

Quantifying the Risk of Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Due to Consumption of Domestically Produced Lamb in the United States.

PubMed

Guo, Miao; Mishra, Abhinav; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Gamble, H Ray; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-07-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a prevalent protozoan parasite worldwide. Human toxoplasmosis is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States, and meat products have been identified as an important source of T. gondii infections in humans. The goal of this study was to develop a farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment model to predict the public health burden in the United States associated with consumption of U.S. domestically produced lamb. T. gondii prevalence in market lambs was pooled from the 2011 National Animal Health Monitoring System survey, and the concentration of the infectious life stage (bradyzoites) was calculated in the developed model. A log-linear regression and an exponential doseresponse model were used to model the reduction of T. gondii during home cooking and to predict the probability of infection, respectively. The mean probability of infection per serving of lamb was estimated to be 1.5 cases per 100,000 servings, corresponding to ∼6,300 new infections per year in the U.S. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we identified cooking as the most effective method to influence human health risk. This study provided a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for T. gondii infection through consumption of lamb and quantified the infection risk and public health burden associated with lamb consumption.

The road traffic crashes as a neglected public health concern; an observational study from Iranian population.

PubMed

Bakhtiyari, Mahmood; Delpisheh, Ali; Monfared, Ayad Bahadori; Kazemi-Galougahi, Mohammad Hassan; Mehmandar, Mohammad Reza; Riahi, Mohammad; Salehi, Masoud; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2015-01-01

Traffic crashes are multifactorial events caused by human factors, technical issues, and environmental conditions. The present study aimed to determine the role of human factors in traffic crashes in Iran using the proportional odds regression model. The database of all traffic crashes in Iran in 2010 (n = 592, 168) registered through the "COM.114" police forms was investigated. Human risk factors leading to traffic crashes were determined and the odds ratio (OR) of each risk factor was estimated using an ordinal regression model and adjusted for potential confounding factors such as age, gender, and lighting status within and outside of cities. The drivers' mean age ± standard deviation was 34.1 ± 14.0 years. The most prevalent risk factors leading to death within cities were disregarding traffic rules and regulations (45%), driver rushing (31%), and alcohol consumption (12.3%). Using the proportional odds regression model, alcohol consumption was the most significant human risk factor in traffic crashes within cities (OR = 6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.88-8.65) and outside of cities (OR = 1.73, 95% CI, 1.22-3.29). Public health strategies and preventive policies should be focused on more common human risk factors such as disregarding traffic rules and regulations, drivers' rushing, and alcohol consumption due to their greater population attributable fraction and more intuitive impacts on society.

HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELING FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

EPA Science Inventory

US EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) has identified cumulative risk assessment as a priority research area. This is because humans and other organisms are exposed to a multitude of chemicals, physical agents, and other stressors through multiple pathways, routes, an...

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

PubMed

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

Evaluating the Risks: A Bernoulli Process Model of HIV Infection and Risk Reduction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinkerton, Steven D.; Abramson, Paul R.

1993-01-01

A Bernoulli process model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is used to evaluate infection risks associated with various sexual behaviors (condom use, abstinence, or monogamy). Results suggest that infection is best mitigated through measures that decrease infectivity, such as condom use. (SLD)

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

PubMed

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision-making process for chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

2013-12-01

In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose-response models can impact the probability of human health risk exceeding a regulatory threshold.

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri

2010-01-01

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Stochastic Models of Human Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

Human In Silico Drug Trials Demonstrate Higher Accuracy than Animal Models in Predicting Clinical Pro-Arrhythmic Cardiotoxicity.

PubMed

Passini, Elisa; Britton, Oliver J; Lu, Hua Rong; Rohrbacher, Jutta; Hermans, An N; Gallacher, David J; Greig, Robert J H; Bueno-Orovio, Alfonso; Rodriguez, Blanca

2017-01-01

Early prediction of cardiotoxicity is critical for drug development. Current animal models raise ethical and translational questions, and have limited accuracy in clinical risk prediction. Human-based computer models constitute a fast, cheap and potentially effective alternative to experimental assays, also facilitating translation to human. Key challenges include consideration of inter-cellular variability in drug responses and integration of computational and experimental methods in safety pharmacology. Our aim is to evaluate the ability of in silico drug trials in populations of human action potential (AP) models to predict clinical risk of drug-induced arrhythmias based on ion channel information, and to compare simulation results against experimental assays commonly used for drug testing. A control population of 1,213 human ventricular AP models in agreement with experimental recordings was constructed. In silico drug trials were performed for 62 reference compounds at multiple concentrations, using pore-block drug models (IC 50 /Hill coefficient). Drug-induced changes in AP biomarkers were quantified, together with occurrence of repolarization/depolarization abnormalities. Simulation results were used to predict clinical risk based on reports of Torsade de Pointes arrhythmias, and further evaluated in a subset of compounds through comparison with electrocardiograms from rabbit wedge preparations and Ca 2+ -transient recordings in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPS-CMs). Drug-induced changes in silico vary in magnitude depending on the specific ionic profile of each model in the population, thus allowing to identify cell sub-populations at higher risk of developing abnormal AP phenotypes. Models with low repolarization reserve (increased Ca 2+ /late Na + currents and Na + /Ca 2+ -exchanger, reduced Na + /K + -pump) are highly vulnerable to drug-induced repolarization abnormalities, while those with reduced inward current density (fast/late Na + and Ca 2+ currents) exhibit high susceptibility to depolarization abnormalities. Repolarization abnormalities in silico predict clinical risk for all compounds with 89% accuracy. Drug-induced changes in biomarkers are in overall agreement across different assays: in silico AP duration changes reflect the ones observed in rabbit QT interval and hiPS-CMs Ca 2+ -transient, and simulated upstroke velocity captures variations in rabbit QRS complex. Our results demonstrate that human in silico drug trials constitute a powerful methodology for prediction of clinical pro-arrhythmic cardiotoxicity, ready for integration in the existing drug safety assessment pipelines.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Functional correlation approach to operational risk in banking organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühn, Reimer; Neu, Peter

2003-05-01

A Value-at-Risk-based model is proposed to compute the adequate equity capital necessary to cover potential losses due to operational risks, such as human and system process failures, in banking organizations. Exploring the analogy to a lattice gas model from physics, correlations between sequential failures are modeled by as functionally defined, heterogeneous couplings between mutually supportive processes. In contrast to traditional risk models for market and credit risk, where correlations are described as equal-time-correlations by a covariance matrix, the dynamics of the model shows collective phenomena such as bursts and avalanches of process failures.

Accounting for pH heterogeneity and variability in modelling human health risks from cadmium in contaminated land.

PubMed

Gay, J Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2009-07-01

The authors have previously published a methodology which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment, incorporating uncertainty, of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land. The model assumes a constant soil to plant concentration factor (CF(veg)) when calculating intake of contaminants. This model is modified here to enhance its use in a situation where CF(veg) varies according to soil pH, as is the case for cadmium. The original methodology uses sequential indicator simulation (SIS) to map soil concentration estimates for one contaminant across a site. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. The proposed improvement involves not only the geostatistical estimation of the contaminant concentration, but also that of soil pH, which in turn leads to a variable CF(veg) estimate which influences the human intake results. The results presented demonstrate that taking pH into account can influence the outcome of the risk assessment greatly. It is proposed that a similar adaptation could be used for other combinations of soil variables which influence CF(veg).

Integrating Environmental and Mosquito Data to Model Disease: Evaluating Alternative Modeling Approaches for Forecasting West Nile Virus in South Dakota, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. K.; Vincent, G. P.; Hildreth, M.; Kightlinger, L.; Carlson, C.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

South Dakota has the highest annual incidence of human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) in all US states, and human cases can vary wildly among years; predicting WNV risk in advance is a necessary exercise if public health officials are to respond efficiently and effectively to risk. Case counts are associated with environmental factors that affect mosquitoes, avian hosts, and the virus itself. They are also correlated with entomological risk indices obtained by trapping and testing mosquitoes. However, neither weather nor insect data alone provide a sufficient basis to make timely and accurate predictions, and combining them into models of human disease is not necessarily straightforward. Here we present lessons learned in three years of making real-time forecasts of this threat to public health. Various methods of integrating data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) with mosquito surveillance data were explored in a model comparison framework. We found that a model of human disease summarizing weather data (by polynomial distributed lags with seasonally-varying coefficients) and mosquito data (by a mixed-effects model that smooths out these sparse and highly-variable data) made accurate predictions of risk, and was generalizable enough to be recommended in similar applications. A model based on lagged effects of temperature and humidity provided the most accurate predictions. We also found that model accuracy was improved by allowing coefficients to vary smoothly throughout the season, giving different weights to different predictor variables during different parts of the season.

Quantifying uncertainty in Bayesian calibrated animal-to-human PBPK models with informative prior distributions

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding and quantifying the uncertainty of model parameters and predictions has gained more interest in recent years with the increased use of computational models in chemical risk assessment. Fully characterizing the uncertainty in risk metrics derived from linked quantita...

Practical examples of modeling choices and their consequences for risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Although benchmark dose (BMD) modeling has become the preferred approach to identifying a point of departure (POD) over the No Observed Adverse Effect Level, there remain challenges to its application in human health risk assessment. BMD modeling, as currently implemented by the...

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A.; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J.; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G.; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M.

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Hierarchical dose response of E. coli O157:H7 from human outbreaks incorporating heterogeneity in exposure.

PubMed

Teunis, P F M; Ogden, I D; Strachan, N J C

2008-06-01

The infectivity of pathogenic microorganisms is a key factor in the transmission of an infectious disease in a susceptible population. Microbial infectivity is generally estimated from dose-response studies in human volunteers. This can only be done with mildly pathogenic organisms. Here a hierarchical Beta-Poisson dose-response model is developed utilizing data from human outbreaks. On the lowest level each outbreak is modelled separately and these are then combined at a second level to produce a group dose-response relation. The distribution of foodborne pathogens often shows strong heterogeneity and this is incorporated by introducing an additional parameter to the dose-response model, accounting for the degree of overdispersion relative to Poisson distribution. It was found that heterogeneity considerably influences the shape of the dose-response relationship and increases uncertainty in predicted risk. This uncertainty is greater than previously reported surrogate and outbreak models using a single level of analysis. Monte Carlo parameter samples (alpha, beta of the Beta-Poisson model) can be readily incorporated in risk assessment models built using tools such as S-plus and @ Risk.

Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

PubMed

Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

2012-08-01

Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

Robust human body model injury prediction in simulated side impact crashes.

PubMed

Golman, Adam J; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

2016-01-01

This study developed a parametric methodology to robustly predict occupant injuries sustained in real-world crashes using a finite element (FE) human body model (HBM). One hundred and twenty near-side impact motor vehicle crashes were simulated over a range of parameters using a Toyota RAV4 (bullet vehicle), Ford Taurus (struck vehicle) FE models and a validated human body model (HBM) Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Three bullet vehicle crash parameters (speed, location and angle) and two occupant parameters (seat position and age) were varied using a Latin hypercube design of Experiments. Four injury metrics (head injury criterion, half deflection, thoracic trauma index and pelvic force) were used to calculate injury risk. Rib fracture prediction and lung strain metrics were also analysed. As hypothesized, bullet speed had the greatest effect on each injury measure. Injury risk was reduced when bullet location was further from the B-pillar or when the bullet angle was more oblique. Age had strong correlation to rib fractures frequency and lung strain severity. The injuries from a real-world crash were predicted using two different methods by (1) subsampling the injury predictors from the 12 best crush profile matching simulations and (2) using regression models. Both injury prediction methods successfully predicted the case occupant's low risk for pelvic injury, high risk for thoracic injury, rib fractures and high lung strains with tight confidence intervals. This parametric methodology was successfully used to explore crash parameter interactions and to robustly predict real-world injuries.

Impact of ionic current variability on human ventricular cellular electrophysiology.

PubMed

Romero, Lucía; Pueyo, Esther; Fink, Martin; Rodríguez, Blanca

2009-10-01

Abnormalities in repolarization and its rate dependence are known to be related to increased proarrhythmic risk. A number of repolarization-related electrophysiological properties are commonly used as preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk. However, the variability and complexity of repolarization mechanisms make the use of cellular biomarkers to predict arrhythmic risk preclinically challenging. Our goal is to investigate the role of ionic current properties and their variability in modulating cellular biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to improve risk stratification and identification in humans. A systematic investigation into the sensitivity of the main preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to changes in ionic current conductances and kinetics was performed using computer simulations. Four stimulation protocols were applied to the ten Tusscher and Panfilov human ventricular model to quantify the impact of +/-15 and +/-30% variations in key model parameters on action potential (AP) properties, Ca(2+) and Na(+) dynamics, and their rate dependence. Simulations show that, in humans, AP duration is moderately sensitive to changes in all repolarization current conductances and in L-type Ca(2+) current (I(CaL)) and slow component of the delayed rectifier current (I(Ks)) inactivation kinetics. AP triangulation, however, is strongly dependent only on inward rectifier K(+) current (I(K1)) and delayed rectifier current (I(Kr)) conductances. Furthermore, AP rate dependence (i.e., AP duration rate adaptation and restitution properties) and intracellular Ca(2+) and Na(+) levels are highly sensitive to both I(CaL) and Na(+)/K(+) pump current (I(NaK)) properties. This study provides quantitative insights into the sensitivity of preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to variations in ionic current properties in humans. The results show the importance of sensitivity analysis as a powerful method for the in-depth validation of mathematical models in cardiac electrophysiology.

Mode of action in relevance of rodent liver tumors to human cancer risk.

PubMed

Holsapple, Michael P; Pitot, Henri C; Cohen, Samuel M; Cohen, Samuel H; Boobis, Alan R; Klaunig, James E; Pastoor, Timothy; Dellarco, Vicki L; Dragan, Yvonne P

2006-01-01

Hazard identification and risk assessment paradigms depend on the presumption of the similarity of rodents to humans, yet species specific responses, and the extrapolation of high-dose effects to low-dose exposures can affect the estimation of human risk from rodent data. As a consequence, a human relevance framework concept was developed by the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) and International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) with the central tenet being the identification of a mode of action (MOA). To perform a MOA analysis, the key biochemical, cellular, and molecular events need to first be established, and the temporal and dose-dependent concordance of each of the key events in the MOA can then be determined. The key events can be used to bridge species and dose for a given MOA. The next step in the MOA analysis is the assessment of biological plausibility for determining the relevance of the specified MOA in an animal model for human cancer risk based on kinetic and dynamic parameters. Using the framework approach, a MOA in animals could not be defined for metal overload. The MOA for phenobarbital (PB)-like P450 inducers was determined to be unlikely in humans after kinetic and dynamic factors were considered. In contrast, after these factors were considered with reference to estrogen, the conclusion was drawn that estrogen-induced tumors were plausible in humans. Finally, it was concluded that the induction of rodent liver tumors by porphyrogenic compounds followed a cytotoxic MOA, and that liver tumors formed as a result of sustained cytotoxicity and regenerative proliferation are considered relevant for evaluating human cancer risk if appropriate metabolism occurs in the animal models and in humans.

AN OVERVIEW OF HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELING ACTIVITIES AT THE U.S. EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

EPA Science Inventory

The computational modeling of human exposure to environmental pollutants is one of the primary activities of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)'s National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). Assessment of human exposures is a critical part of the overall risk assessm...

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, L. J.; Elgart, S. R.; Milder, C. M.; Shavers, M. R.; Semones, E. J.; Huff, J. L.

2017-01-01

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Vibrio bacteria in raw oysters: managing risks to human health.

PubMed

Froelich, Brett A; Noble, Rachel T

2016-03-05

The human-pathogenic marine bacteria Vibrio vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus are strongly correlated with water temperature, with concentrations increasing as waters warm seasonally. Both of these bacteria can be concentrated in filter-feeding shellfish, especially oysters. Because oysters are often consumed raw, this exposes people to large doses of potentially harmful bacteria. Various models are used to predict the abundance of these bacteria in oysters, which guide shellfish harvest policy meant to reduce human health risk. Vibrio abundance and behaviour varies from site to site, suggesting that location-specific studies are needed to establish targeted risk reduction strategies. Moreover, virulence potential, rather than simple abundance, should be also be included in future modeling efforts. © 2016 The Author(s).

Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Grenander, Sven; Evensen, Ken

2011-01-01

center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

PubMed

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

PETRORISK: a risk assessment framework for petroleum substances.

PubMed

Redman, Aaron D; Parkerton, Thomas F; Comber, Mike H I; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Eadsforth, Charles V; Dmytrasz, Bhodan; King, Duncan; Warren, Christopher S; den Haan, Klaas; Djemel, Nadia

2014-07-01

PETRORISK is a modeling framework used to evaluate environmental risk of petroleum substances and human exposure through these routes due to emissions under typical use conditions as required by the European regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Petroleum substances are often complex substances comprised of hundreds to thousands of individual hydrocarbons. The physicochemical, fate, and effects properties of the individual constituents within a petroleum substance can vary over several orders of magnitude, complicating risk assessment. PETRORISK combines the risk assessment strategies used on single chemicals with the hydrocarbon block approach to model complex substances. Blocks are usually defined by available analytical characterization data on substances that are expressed in terms of mass fractions for different structural chemical classes that are specified as a function of C number or boiling point range. The physicochemical and degradation properties of the blocks are determined by the properties of representative constituents in that block. Emissions and predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) are then modeled using mass-weighted individual representative constituents. Overall risk for various environmental compartments at the regional and local level is evaluated by comparing the PECs for individual representative constituents to corresponding predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived using the Target Lipid Model. Risks to human health are evaluated using the overall predicted human dose resulting from multimedia environmental exposure to a substance-specific derived no-effect level (DNEL). A case study is provided to illustrate how this modeling approach has been applied to assess the risks of kerosene manufacture and use as a fuel. © 2014 SETAC.

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Shelhamer, M.; Canga, M.

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during exploration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modeled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified, however, this has been in an ad hoc fashion. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioral, vehicle, and organizational aspects of the exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. We will discuss how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information is allowing us to identify and visualize connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized way. We will discuss the applications of the visualizations and insights to research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Predicting drug-induced liver injury in human with Naïve Bayes classifier approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Ding, Lan; Zou, Yi; Hu, Shui-Qing; Huang, Hai-Guo; Kong, Wei-Bao; Zhang, Ji

2016-10-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is one of the major safety concerns in drug development. Although various toxicological studies assessing DILI risk have been developed, these methods were not sufficient in predicting DILI in humans. Thus, developing new tools and approaches to better predict DILI risk in humans has become an important and urgent task. In this study, we aimed to develop a computational model for assessment of the DILI risk with using a larger scale human dataset and Naïve Bayes classifier. The established Naïve Bayes prediction model was evaluated by 5-fold cross validation and an external test set. For the training set, the overall prediction accuracy of the 5-fold cross validation was 94.0 %. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 97.1, 89.2, 93.5 and 95.1 %, respectively. The test set with the concordance of 72.6 %, sensitivity of 72.5 %, specificity of 72.7 %, positive predictive value of 80.4 %, negative predictive value of 63.2 %. Furthermore, some important molecular descriptors related to DILI risk and some toxic/non-toxic fragments were identified. Thus, we hope the prediction model established here would be employed for the assessment of human DILI risk, and the obtained molecular descriptors and substructures should be taken into consideration in the design of new candidate compounds to help medicinal chemists rationally select the chemicals with the best prospects to be effective and safe.

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Olive, Marie-Marie; Chevalier, Véronique; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Durand, Benoit; Ravalohery, Jean-Pierre; Andriamamonjy, Seta; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel

2016-01-01

Background Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008–2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. Methodology/Principal Findings First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle. Conclusions/Significance Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of vectorial or direct transmissions could be further assessed by mathematic modelling. PMID:27415438

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar.

PubMed

Olive, Marie-Marie; Chevalier, Véronique; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Durand, Benoit; Ravalohery, Jean-Pierre; Andriamamonjy, Seta; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel

2016-07-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008-2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle. Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of vectorial or direct transmissions could be further assessed by mathematic modelling.

Effect of human movement on airborne disease transmission in an airplane cabin: study using numerical modeling and quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Han, Zhuyang; To, Gin Nam Sze; Fu, Sau Chung; Chao, Christopher Yu-Hang; Weng, Wenguo; Huang, Quanyi

2014-08-06

Airborne transmission of respiratory infectious disease in indoor environment (e.g. airplane cabin, conference room, hospital, isolated room and inpatient ward) may cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which may lead to many infection cases and significantly influences on the public health. This issue has received more and more attentions from academics. This work investigates the influence of human movement on the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in an airplane cabin by using an accurate human model in numerical simulation and comparing the influences of different human movement behaviors on disease transmission. The Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is adopted to simulate the dispersion and deposition of the expiratory aerosols. The dose-response model is used to assess the infection risks of the occupants. The likelihood analysis is performed as a hypothesis test on the input parameters and different human movement pattern assumptions. An in-flight SARS outbreak case is used for investigation. A moving person with different moving speeds is simulated to represent the movement behaviors. A digital human model was used to represent the detailed profile of the occupants, which was obtained by scanning a real thermal manikin using the 3D laser scanning system. The analysis results indicate that human movement can strengthen the downward transport of the aerosols, significantly reduce the overall deposition and removal rate of the suspended aerosols and increase the average infection risk in the cabin. The likelihood estimation result shows that the risk assessment results better fit the outcome of the outbreak case when the movements of the seated passengers are considered. The intake fraction of the moving person is significantly higher than most of the seated passengers. The infection risk distribution in the airplane cabin highly depends on the movement behaviors of the passengers and the index patient. The walking activities of the crew members and the seated passengers can significantly increase their personal infection risks. Taking the influence of the movement of the seated passengers and the index patient into consideration is necessary and important. For future studies, investigations on the behaviors characteristics of the passengers during flight will be useful and helpful for infection control.

A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

PubMed

Sharit, J

2000-08-01

This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

USE OF THE TEQ MODEL FOR ASSESSING AHR MEDIATED TOXICITY RISKS TO POPULATIONS OF LAKE TROUT AND OTHER SPECIES IN LAKE ONTARIO

EPA Science Inventory

The toxicity equivalence (TEQ) model for assessing aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) mediated toxicity risks associated with polyhalogenated aromatic chemicals structurally similar to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) has been applied to human health risks for more than 15...

The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2010-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.

SHEDS-Multimedia Model Version 3 (a) Technical Manual; (b) User Guide; and (c) Executable File to Launch SAS Program and Install Model

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable models for assessing human exposures are important for understanding health risks from chemicals. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for multimedia, multi-route/pathway chemicals (SHEDS-Multimedia), developed by EPA’s Office of Research and Developm...

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

PREDICTIVE ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) PESTICIDE QSARS AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF SUSCEPTIBLE SUB-POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) in risk assessment of susceptible human sub-populations, e.g., infants and children, requires input of quality experimental data. In the clear absence of quality data, PBPK models can be developed and possibl...

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-01-01

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-06-16

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

Incidence trend and risk factors for campylobacter infections in humans in Norway

PubMed Central

Sandberg, Marianne; Nygård, Karin; Meldal, Hege; Valle, Paul Steinar; Kruse, Hilde; Skjerve, Eystein

2006-01-01

Background The objectives of the study were to evaluate whether the increase in incidence of campylobacteriosis observed in humans in Norway from 1995 to 2001 was statistically significant and whether different biologically plausible risk factors were associated with the incidence of campylobacteriosis in the different counties in Norway. Methods To model the incidence of domestically acquired campylobacteriosis from 1995 to 2001, a population average random effect poisson model was applied (the trend model). To case data and assumed risk-factor/protective data such as sale of chicken, receiving treated drinking water, density of dogs and grazing animals, occupation of people in the municipalities and climatic factors from 2000 and 2001, an equivalent model accounting for geographical clustering was applied (the ecological model). Results The increase in incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans in Norway from 1995 to 2001 was statistically significant from 1998. Treated water was a protective factor against Campylobacter infections in humans with an IRR of 0.78 per percentage increase in people supplied. The two-level modelling technique showed no evidence of clustering of campylobacteriosis in any particular county. Aggregation of data on municipality level makes interpretation of the results at the individual level difficult. Conclusion The increase in incidence of Campylobacter infections in humans from 1995 to 2001 was statistically significant from 1998. Treated water was a protective factor against Campylobacter infections in humans with an IRR of 0.78 per percentage increase in people supplied. Campylobacter infections did not appear to be clustered in any particular county in Norway. PMID:16827925

Modeling of GCR Environment Variations and Interpretation for Human Explorations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saganti, Premkumar

We currently have wealth of data with several short duration Space Shuttle (STS) flights to the low earth orbit (LEO) and long duration International Space Station (ISS) expeditions as well as Shuttle-Mir missions over the past few solar cycles. Assessment of such radiation risk is very important particularly for the anticipated long-term and deep-space human explorations. Recently, we have developed a database of first 500 + human explorers and their space travel logs from space exploration missions during the past four decades. Many have traveled into space for only few days while others have been in space for several months. We present the time-line distribution of the space travelers log along with the time correlated radiation en-vironment changes in to aid in the radiation risk assessment for human explorations. These model calculated results and assessment of radiation exposure helps in our understanding of radiation risk and biological consequences.

Probabilistic human health risk assessment of degradation-related chemical mixtures in heterogeneous aquifers: Risk statistics, hot spots, and preferential channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henri, Christopher V.; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2015-06-01

The increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface has led to a rapid growth of social concerns and the need to develop and employ models that can predict the impact of groundwater contamination on human health risk under uncertainty. Monitored natural attenuation is a common remediation action in many contamination cases. However, natural attenuation can lead to the production of daughter species of distinct toxicity that may pose challenges in pollution management strategies. The actual threat that these contaminants pose to human health depends on the interplay between the complex structure of the geological media and the toxicity of each pollutant byproduct. This work addresses human health risk for chemical mixtures resulting from the sequential degradation of a contaminant (such as a chlorinated solvent) under uncertainty through high-resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations. We systematically investigate the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity, flow connectivity, contaminant injection model, and chemical toxicity in the probabilistic characterization of health risk. We illustrate how chemical-specific travel times control the regime of the expected risk and its corresponding uncertainties. Results indicate conditions where preferential flow paths can favor the reduction of the overall risk of the chemical mixture. The overall human risk response to aquifer connectivity is shown to be nontrivial for multispecies transport. This nontriviality is a result of the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity and chemical toxicity. To quantify the joint effect of connectivity and toxicity in health risk, we propose a toxicity-based Damköhler number. Furthermore, we provide a statistical characterization in terms of low-order moments and the probability density function of the individual and total risks.

Ecological risk assessment and carcinogen health risk assessment of arsenic in soils from part area of the Daye City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Wang, T.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Z. Y.

2018-01-01

Soils in four sampling sites from part area of the Daye City were collected. Concentrations of arsenic (As) in soils in sampling sites were detected by Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry, ecological risk was calculated by potential ecological risk index (RI) and human health risk was measured by human health risk assessment model established by USEPA. The results showed that, the total content of As in soils in Daye was decreased in the order of S4 (66.58 mg/kg)>S2 (44.73 mg/kg)>S3 (34.86 mg/kg) >S1 (21.84 mg/kg), concentrations in all sampling sites were higher than background values of Hubei Province. The potential risk and human health risk were decreased in the order of S4>S2>S3>S1 and S4>S3>S2>S1, respectively. Specially, S1, S2 and S3 were at low potential ecological risk while S4 was at moderate ecological risk. But there was no carcinogenic risk for human exposure to As in soil in Daye.

Development and Application of a Human PBPK Model for Bromodichloromethane (BDCM) to Investigate Impacts of Multi-Route Exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Due to its presence in water as a volatile disinfection byproduct, BDCM, which is mutagenic and a rodent carcinogen, poses a risk for exposure via multiple routes. We developed a refined human PBPK model for BDCM (including new chemical-specific human parameters) to evaluate the...

Impact Response Comparison Between Parametric Human Models and Postmortem Human Subjects with a Wide Range of Obesity Levels.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Wang, Yulong; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Forman, Jason; Hu, Jingwen

2017-10-01

Field data analyses have shown that obesity significantly increases the occupant injury risks in motor vehicle crashes, but the injury assessment tools for people with obesity are largely lacking. The objectives of this study were to use a mesh morphing method to rapidly generate parametric finite element models with a wide range of obesity levels and to evaluate their biofidelity against impact tests using postmortem human subjects (PMHS). Frontal crash tests using three PMHS seated in a vehicle rear seat compartment with body mass index (BMI) from 24 to 40 kg/m 2 were selected. To develop the human models matching the PMHS geometry, statistical models of external body shape, rib cage, pelvis, and femur were applied to predict the target geometry using age, sex, stature, and BMI. A mesh morphing method based on radial basis functions was used to rapidly morph a baseline human model into the target geometry. The model-predicted body excursions and injury measures were compared to the PMHS tests. Comparisons of occupant kinematics and injury measures between the tests and simulations showed reasonable correlations across the wide range of BMI levels. The parametric human models have the capability to account for the obesity effects on the occupant impact responses and injury risks. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Strategic preparedness for recovery from catastrophic risks to communities and infrastructure systems of systems.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2012-11-01

Natural and human-induced disasters affect organizations in myriad ways because of the inherent interconnectedness and interdependencies among human, cyber, and physical infrastructures, but more importantly, because organizations depend on the effectiveness of people and on the leadership they provide to the organizations they serve and represent. These human-organizational-cyber-physical infrastructure entities are termed systems of systems. Given the multiple perspectives that characterize them, they cannot be modeled effectively with a single model. The focus of this article is: (i) the centrality of the states of a system in modeling; (ii) the efficacious role of shared states in modeling systems of systems, in identification, and in the meta-modeling of systems of systems; and (iii) the contributions of the above to strategic preparedness, response to, and recovery from catastrophic risk to such systems. Strategic preparedness connotes a decision-making process and its associated actions. These must be: implemented in advance of a natural or human-induced disaster, aimed at reducing consequences (e.g., recovery time, community suffering, and cost), and/or controlling their likelihood to a level considered acceptable (through the decisionmakers' implicit and explicit acceptance of various risks and tradeoffs). The inoperability input-output model (IIM), which is grounded on Leontief's input/output model, has enabled the modeling of interdependent subsystems. Two separate modeling structures are introduced. These are: phantom system models (PSM), where shared states constitute the essence of modeling coupled systems; and the IIM, where interdependencies among sectors of the economy are manifested by the Leontief matrix of technological coefficients. This article demonstrates the potential contributions of these two models to each other, and thus to more informative modeling of systems of systems schema. The contributions of shared states to this modeling and to systems identification are presented with case studies. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Prognostic scores after surgical treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a proposed model and possible implications for post-operative follow-up.

PubMed

Andrade, Carlos E M C; Scapulatempo-Neto, Cristovam; Longatto-Filho, Adhemar; Vieira, Marcelo A; Tsunoda, Audrey T; Da Silva, Ismael D C G; Fregnani, José Humberto T G

2014-09-01

To develop a prognostic model for women who underwent surgical treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Cohort study. Patient inclusion and follow-up occurred retrospectively and prospectively. Barretos Cancer Hospital, Barretos, São Paulo, Brazil. Women (n = 242) diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia who were submitted to conization. Immediately prior to surgical treatment, a cervical cytology sample was collected from each individual included in the study by endocervical brushing and stored in a preservative solution with methanol. A human papilloma virus-DNA test was conducted using an aliquot of the endocervical brushings. The surgical specimens were subjected to immunohistochemical analysis of p16 (immunohistochemical analysis 4a) protein expression. Two-year disease-free survival rates calculated for each study variable. Identified variables in the multivariate Cox model were used for elaboration of prognostic scores. Variables associated with outcome included age (p = 0.033), tobacco use (p < 0.001), final histopathological diagnosis (p = 0.007), surgical margins (p < 0.001), high-risk human papilloma virus status (p = 0.008), human papilloma virus-16 status (p < 0.001) and immunoexpression of p16 in the cytoplasm (p = 0.049). By the Cox model, independent risk factors for disease recurrence/persistence were: tobacco use (hazard risk = 3.0; 95% confidence interval 1.6-5.6), positive surgical margins (hazard risk = 3.2; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.1), human papilloma virus-16 (hazard risk = 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.9) and age over 45 years (hazard risk = 2.7; 95% confidence interval 1.1-6.6). Establishment of a prognostic score can represent a valuable tool for determining the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia recurrence after conization. The use of clinical (age and tobacco use), pathological (surgical margins) and molecular (human papilloma virus-16 genotyping) factors can facilitate more appropriate patient follow up according to risk stratification. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Human risk of infection with Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent, in eastern United States.

PubMed

Diuk-Wasser, Maria A; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Cislo, Paul; Brinkerhoff, Robert; Hamer, Sarah A; Rowland, Michelle; Cortinas, Roberto; Vourc'h, Gwenaël; Melton, Forrest; Hickling, Graham J; Tsao, Jean I; Bunikis, Jonas; Barbour, Alan G; Kitron, Uriel; Piesman, Joseph; Fish, Durland

2012-02-01

The geographic pattern of human risk for infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the tick-borne pathogen that causes Lyme disease, was mapped for the eastern United States. The map is based on standardized field sampling in 304 sites of the density of Ixodes scapularis host-seeking nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi, which is closely associated with human infection risk. Risk factors for the presence and density of infected nymphs were used to model a continuous 8 km×8 km resolution predictive surface of human risk, including confidence intervals for each pixel. Discontinuous Lyme disease risk foci were identified in the Northeast and upper Midwest, with a transitional zone including sites with uninfected I. scapularis populations. Given frequent under- and over-diagnoses of Lyme disease, this map could act as a tool to guide surveillance, control, and prevention efforts and act as a baseline for studies tracking the spread of infection.

Space Radiation and Human Exposures, A Primer.

PubMed

Nelson, Gregory A

2016-04-01

The space radiation environment is a complex field comprised primarily of charged particles spanning energies over many orders of magnitude. The principal sources of these particles are galactic cosmic rays, the Sun and the trapped radiation belts around the earth. Superimposed on a steady influx of cosmic rays and a steady outward flux of low-energy solar wind are short-term ejections of higher energy particles from the Sun and an 11-year variation of solar luminosity that modulates cosmic ray intensity. Human health risks are estimated from models of the radiation environment for various mission scenarios, the shielding of associated vehicles and the human body itself. Transport models are used to propagate the ambient radiation fields through realistic shielding levels and materials to yield radiation field models inside spacecraft. Then, informed by radiobiological experiments and epidemiology studies, estimates are made for various outcome measures associated with impairments of biological processes, losses of function or mortality. Cancer-associated risks have been formulated in a probabilistic model while management of non-cancer risks are based on permissible exposure limits. This article focuses on the various components of the space radiation environment and the human exposures that it creates.

Parameters for Pesticide QSAR and PBPK/PD Models to inform Human Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) modeling has emerged as an important computational approach supporting quantitative risk assessment of agrochemicals. However, before complete regulatory acceptance of this tool, an assessment of assets and liabi...

Parameters for Pyrethroid Insecticide QSAR and PBPK/PD Models for Human Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This pyrethroid insecticide parameter review is an extension of our interest in developing quantitative structure–activity relationship–physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (QSAR-PBPK/PD) models for assessing health risks, which interest started with the organoph...

CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

A model study of the Haihe river passenger ferry risk based on AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinyin; Xu, Yanming; Du, Chunzhi; Jin, Zhenhua

2017-05-01

The core function of maritime is water safety supervision, whose emphasis and difficulty is ferry. In combination with the practical situation of Haihe river passenger ferry operation management, this paper analyzes Haihe river passenger ferry risk from four aspects "human, machinery, environment and management", and establishes the ferry risk index system. By using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), the ferry risk evaluation model is established. By using the ferry model, the application of Ferry Zhengyanfa7 in Tianjin Haihe river crossing is evaluated, whose safety situation is verified to be between "relatively high risk" and "high risk".

The dynamic influence of human resources on evidence-based intervention sustainability and population outcomes: an agent-based modeling approach.

PubMed

McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M

2018-06-05

Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on population outcomes. Furthermore, this model demonstrates how ABMs may be leveraged to inform research design and assess the impact of EBI sustainability in practice.

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Cheung, Li C.; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E.; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2014-01-01

Summary New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman’s HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development. PMID:26556961

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2015-10-01

New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.

An epidemiological survey on road traffic crashes in Iran: application of the two logistic regression models.

PubMed

Bakhtiyari, Mahmood; Mehmandar, Mohammad Reza; Mirbagheri, Babak; Hariri, Gholam Reza; Delpisheh, Ali; Soori, Hamid

2014-01-01

Risk factors of human-related traffic crashes are the most important and preventable challenges for community health due to their noteworthy burden in developing countries in particular. The present study aims to investigate the role of human risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran. Through a cross-sectional study using the COM 114 data collection forms, the police records of almost 600,000 crashes occurred in 2010 are investigated. The binary logistic regression and proportional odds regression models are used. The odds ratio for each risk factor is calculated. These models are adjusted for known confounding factors including age, sex and driving time. The traffic crash reports of 537,688 men (90.8%) and 54,480 women (9.2%) are analysed. The mean age is 34.1 ± 14 years. Not maintaining eyes on the road (53.7%) and losing control of the vehicle (21.4%) are the main causes of drivers' deaths in traffic crashes within cities. Not maintaining eyes on the road is also the most frequent human risk factor for road traffic crashes out of cities. Sudden lane excursion (OR = 9.9, 95% CI: 8.2-11.9) and seat belt non-compliance (OR = 8.7, CI: 6.7-10.1), exceeding authorised speed (OR = 17.9, CI: 12.7-25.1) and exceeding safe speed (OR = 9.7, CI: 7.2-13.2) are the most significant human risk factors for traffic crashes in Iran. The high mortality rate of 39 people for every 100,000 population emphasises on the importance of traffic crashes in Iran. Considering the important role of human risk factors in traffic crashes, struggling efforts are required to control dangerous driving behaviours such as exceeding speed, illegal overtaking and not maintaining eyes on the road.

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2006-01-01

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

Epigenetics: relevance and implications for public health.

PubMed

Rozek, Laura S; Dolinoy, Dana C; Sartor, Maureen A; Omenn, Gilbert S

2014-01-01

Improved understanding of the multilayer regulation of the human genome has led to a greater appreciation of environmental, nutritional, and epigenetic risk factors for human disease. Chromatin remodeling, histone tail modifications, and DNA methylation are dynamic epigenetic changes responsive to external stimuli. Careful interpretation can provide insights for actionable public health through collaboration between population and basic scientists and through integration of multiple data sources. We review key findings in environmental epigenetics both in human population studies and in animal models, and discuss the implications of these results for risk assessment and public health protection. To ultimately succeed in identifying epigenetic mechanisms leading to complex phenotypes and disease, researchers must integrate the various animal models, human clinical approaches, and human population approaches while paying attention to life-stage sensitivity, to generate effective prescriptions for human health evaluation and disease prevention.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emond, Claude, E-mail: claude.emond@biosmc.com

Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable eliminationmore » half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. - Highlights: • The best available dioxin PBPK model for interpreting human biomonitoring data is presented. • The original PBPK model was recoded from acslX to the Berkeley Madonna (BM) platform. • Comparisons were made of the accuracy of the recoded model with the original model. • The model is a useful addition to the ATSDR's BM based PBPK toolkit that supports risk assessors. • The application of the model to real-life exposure data sets is illustrated.« less

Characterizing areas of potential human exposure to eastern equine encephalitis virus using serological and clinical data from horses.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J-P; Arsenault, J; Ogden, N H; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Michel, P

2017-03-01

Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a rare but severe emerging vector-borne disease affecting human and animal populations in the northeastern United States where it is endemic. Key knowledge gaps remain about the epidemiology of EEE virus (EEEV) in areas where its emergence has more recently been reported. In Eastern Canada, viral activity has been recorded in mosquitoes and horses throughout the 2000s but cases of EEEV in humans have not been reported so far. This study was designed to provide an assessment of possible EEEV human exposure by modelling environmental risk factors for EEEV in horses, identifying high-risk environments and mapping risk in the province of Quebec, Canada. According to logistic models, being located near wooded swamps was a risk factor for seropositivity or disease in horses [odds ratio (OR) 4·15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·16-14·8) whereas being located on agricultural lands was identified as protective (OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·62-0·92). A better understanding of the environmental risk of exposure to EEEV in Canada provides veterinary and public health officials with enhanced means to more effectively monitor the emergence of this public health risk and design targeted surveillance and preventive measures.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment.

PubMed

Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

2016-01-01

While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment

PubMed Central

Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

2016-01-01

While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2 Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. PMID:27235787

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment.

PubMed

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dose response models and a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for the Mycobacterium avium complex that account for recent developments in molecular biology, taxonomy, and epidemiology.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

2017-02-01

Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a group of environmentally-transmitted pathogens of great public health importance. This group is known to be harbored, amplified, and selected for more human-virulent characteristics by amoeba species in aquatic biofilms. However, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has not been performed due to the lack of dose response models resulting from significant heterogeneity within even a single species or subspecies of MAC, as well as the range of human susceptibilities to mycobacterial disease. The primary human-relevant species and subspecies responsible for the majority of the human disease burden and present in drinking water, biofilms, and soil are M. avium subsp. hominissuis, M. intracellulare, and M. chimaera. A critical review of the published literature identified important health endpoints, exposure routes, and susceptible populations for MAC risk assessment. In addition, data sets for quantitative dose-response functions were extracted from published in vivo animal dosing experiments. As a result, seven new exponential dose response models for human-relevant species of MAC with endpoints of lung lesions, death, disseminated infection, liver infection, and lymph node lesions are proposed. Although current physical and biochemical tests used in clinical settings do not differentiate between M. avium and M. intracellulare, differentiating between environmental species and subspecies of the MAC can aid in the assessment of health risks and control of MAC sources. A framework is proposed for incorporating the proposed dose response models into susceptible population- and exposure route-specific QMRA models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influences and neural correlates of past and present during gambling in humans.

PubMed

Sacré, Pierre; Subramanian, Sandya; Kerr, Matthew S D; Kahn, Kevin; Johnson, Matthew A; Bulacio, Juan; González-Martínez, Jorge A; Sarma, Sridevi V; Gale, John T

2017-12-07

During financial decision-making tasks, humans often make "rational" decisions, where they maximize expected reward. However, this rationality may compete with a bias that reflects past outcomes. That is, if one just lost money or won money, this may impact future decisions. It is unclear how past outcomes influence future decisions in humans, and how neural circuits encode present and past information. In this study, six human subjects performed a financial decision-making task while we recorded local field potentials from multiple brain structures. We constructed a model for each subject characterizing bets on each trial as a function of present and past information. The models suggest that some patients are more influenced by previous trial outcomes (i.e., previous return and risk) than others who stick to more fixed decision strategies. In addition, past return and present risk modulated with the activity in the cuneus; while present return and past risk modulated with the activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the angular gyrus, respectively. Our findings suggest that these structures play a role in decision-making beyond their classical functions by incorporating predictions and risks in humans' decision strategy, and provide new insight into how humans link their internal biases to decisions.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

Modeling Dental Health Care Workers' Risk of Occupational Infection from Bloodborne Pathogens.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capilouto, Eli; And Others

1990-01-01

The brief paper offers a model which permits quantification of the dental health care workers' risk of occupationally acquiring infection from bloodborne pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus. The model incorporates five parameters such as the probability that any individual patient is infected and number of patients…

How Animal Models Inform Child and Adolescent Psychiatry

PubMed Central

Stevens, Hanna E.; Vaccarino, Flora M.

2015-01-01

Objective Every available approach should be utilized to advance the field of child and adolescent psychiatry. Biological systems are important for the behavioral problems of children. Close examination of non-human animals and the biology and behavior they share with humans is an approach that must be used to advance the clinical work of child psychiatry. Method We review here how model systems are used to contribute to significant insights into childhood psychiatric disorders. Model systems have not only demonstrated causality of risk factors for psychiatric pathophysiology but have also allowed child psychiatrists to think in different ways about risks for psychiatric disorders and multiple levels that might be the basis of recovery and prevention. Results We present examples of how animal systems are utilized to benefit child psychiatry, including through environmental, genetic, and acute biological manipulations. Animal model work has been essential in our current thinking about childhood disorders, including the importance of dose and timing of risk factors, specific features of risk factors that are significant, neurochemistry involved in brain functioning, molecular components of brain development, and the importance of cellular processes previously neglected in psychiatric theories. Conclusion Animal models have clear advantages and disadvantages that must both be considered for these systems to be useful. Coupled with increasingly sophisticated methods for investigating human behavior and biology, animal model systems will continue to make essential contributions to our field. PMID:25901771

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

MOVING FROM EXTERNAL EXPOSURE CONCENTRATION TO INTERNAL DOSE: DURATION EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC-MODEL DERIVED ESTIMATES OF INTERNAL DOSE

EPA Science Inventory

The potential human health risk(s) from exposure to chemicals under conditions for which adequate human or animal data are not available must frequently be assessed. Exposure scenario is particularly important for the acute neurotoxic effects of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)...

An Integrated Modeling Platform for Human and Ecological Exposure and Risk in Multimedia Environmental Systems (HE2RMES)

EPA Science Inventory

When considering potentially hazardous materials in the context of initial use, reuse, recycling, or ultimate disposal in the landscape, a crux of most decision will be understanding the cumulative contaminant exposure and risk of a given material to human health and well-being. ...

Geographic variations of the bird-borne structural risk of West Nile virus circulation in Europe

PubMed Central

Durand, Benoit; Tran, Annelise; Balança, Gilles

2017-01-01

The structural risk of West Nile Disease results from the usual functioning of the socio-ecological system, which may favour the introduction of the pathogen, its circulation and the occurrence of disease cases. Its geographic variations result from the local interactions between three components: (i) reservoir hosts, (ii) vectors, both characterized by their diversity, abundance and competence, (iii) and the socio-economic context that impacts the exposure of human to infectious bites. We developed a model of bird-borne structural risk of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Europe, and analysed the association between the geographic variations of this risk and the occurrence of WND human cases between 2002 and 2014. A meta-analysis of WNV serosurveys conducted in wild bird populations was performed to elaborate a model of WNV seropositivity in European bird species, considered a proxy for bird exposure to WNV. Several eco-ethological traits of bird species were linked to seropositivity and the statistical model adequately fitted species-specific seropositivity data (area under the ROC curve: 0.85). Combined with species distribution maps, this model allowed deriving geographic variations of the bird-borne structural risk of WNV circulation. The association between this risk, and the occurrence of WND human cases across the European Union was assessed. Geographic risk variations of bird-borne structural risk allowed predicting WND case occurrence in administrative districts of the EU with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI: 0.79–0.92), and a specificity of 68% (95% CI: 0.66–0.71). Disentangling structural and conjectural health risks is important for public health managers as risk mitigation procedures differ according to risk type. The results obtained show promise for the prevention of WND in Europe. Combined with analyses of vector-borne structural risk, they should allow designing efficient and targeted prevention measures. PMID:29023472

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Doores, Stephanie; Hayes, Dermot; Mathew, Alan; Maurer, John; Silley, Peter; Singer, Randall S; Jones, Ronald N

2004-05-01

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.

Clinical engineering and risk management in healthcare technological process using architecture framework.

PubMed

Signori, Marcos R; Garcia, Renato

2010-01-01

This paper presents a model that aids the Clinical Engineering to deal with Risk Management in the Healthcare Technological Process. The healthcare technological setting is complex and supported by three basics entities: infrastructure (IS), healthcare technology (HT), and human resource (HR). Was used an Enterprise Architecture - MODAF (Ministry of Defence Architecture Framework) - to model this process for risk management. Thus, was created a new model to contribute to the risk management in the HT process, through the Clinical Engineering viewpoint. This architecture model can support and improve the decision making process of the Clinical Engineering to the Risk Management in the Healthcare Technological process.

A human health risk assessment for macrolide-resistant Campylobacter associated with the use of macrolides in Danish pig production.

PubMed

Alban, Lis; Nielsen, Elisabeth Okholm; Dahl, Jan

2008-02-01

In 2006, macrolides were withdrawn from the list of antibiotics recommended for veterinary treatment of diarrhoea in Danish pigs. The motive was to lower the antibiotic consumption in general and to mitigate the risk related to human infection with macrolide-resistant (Mres) Campylobacter. We subsequently conducted a risk assessment following international guidelines to address the risk for human health associated with usage of macrolides in Danish pigs. Data originated from surveillance programs, published papers, reports and statistics. Furthermore, an exposure model was built in @Risk. Mres Campylobacter is the hazard of interest. Data from different EU countries show that beef contains a very low prevalence (typically 0.1-1.1%) of Campylobacter; moreover, Mres is uncommon in Campylobacter isolates from cattle (between 0% and 6%). Beef was therefore left out of further analysis. For pork at retail, a high variation in the prevalence of Campylobacter has been reported within EU; but generally the prevalence is <10%, and the isolates are often Mres. EU data indicate that poultry meat harbor a high prevalence of Campylobacter (more more than 10%) with Mres at prevalence ranging from 0% to 8%. According to the exposure model - that included origin of meat as well as consumption patterns - most human cases of Mres campylobacteriosis (157 out of 186) was ascribed to imported meat. Only seven cases could be explained by veterinary usage of macrolides in Danish pigs. In general, human cases of campylobacteriosis are self-limiting, and it is questionable whether there is any excess risk related to infection with Mres Campylobacter compared to sensitive Campylobacter. In conclusion, the risk associated with veterinary use of macrolides in Danish pigs for the human health of Danes seemed to be low.

A long-term comparative assessment of human health risk to leachate-contaminated groundwater from heavy metal with different liner systems.

PubMed

Mishra, Harshit; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kumar, Rakesh; Kadambala, Praneeth

2018-01-01

The handling and management of municipal solid waste (MSW) are major challenges for solid waste management in developing countries. Open dumping is still the most common waste disposal method in India. However, landfilling also causes various environmental, social, and human health impacts. The generation of heavily polluted leachate is a major concern to public health. Engineered barrier systems (EBSs) are commonly used to restrict potentially harmful wastes by preventing the leachate percolation to groundwater and overflow to surface water bodies. The EBSs are made of natural (e.g., soil, clay) and/or synthetic materials such as polymeric materials (e.g., geomembranes, geosynthetic clay liners) by arranging them in layers. Various studies have estimated the human health risk from leachate-contaminated groundwater. However, no studies have been reported to compare the human health risks, particularly due to the leachate contamination with different liner systems. The present study endeavors to quantify the human health risk to contamination from MSW landfill leachate using multiple simulations for various EBSs. To quantify the variation in health risks to groundwater consumption to the child and adult populations, the Turbhe landfill of Navi Mumbai in India has been selected. The leachate and groundwater samples were collected continuously throughout January-September in 2015 from the landfill site, and heavy metal concentrations were analyzed using an inductively coupled plasma system. The LandSim 2.5 Model, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and non-carcinogenic human health risk was determined for selected heavy metals. Further, the uncertainties associated with multiple input parameters in the health risk model were quantified under a Monte Carlo simulation framework.

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models: State of the Science and Needs for Research and Implementation

EPA Science Inventory

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variabilit...

MODELING APPROACHES FOR ESTIMATING THE DOSIMETRY OF INHALED TOXICANTS IN CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment of inhaled toxicants has typically focused upon adults, with modeling used to extrapolate dosimetry and risks from laboratory animals to humans. However, behavioral factors such as time spent playing outdoors can lead to more exposure to inhaled toxicants in chil...

The effect of precrash velocity reduction on occupant response using a human body finite element model.

PubMed

Guleyupoglu, B; Schap, J; Kusano, K D; Gayzik, F S

2017-07-04

The objective of this study is to use a validated finite element model of the human body and a certified model of an anthropomorphic test dummy (ATD) to evaluate the effect of simulated precrash braking on driver kinematics, restraint loads, body loads, and computed injury criteria in 4 commonly injured body regions. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) 50th percentile male occupant (M50-O) and the Humanetics Hybrid III 50th percentile models were gravity settled in the driver position of a generic interior equipped with an advanced 3-point belt and driver airbag. Fifteen simulations per model (30 total) were conducted, including 4 scenarios at 3 severity levels: median, severe, and the U.S. New Car Assessment Program (U.S.-NCAP) and 3 extra per model with high-intensity braking. The 4 scenarios were no precollision system (no PCS), forward collision warning (FCW), FCW with prebraking assist (FCW+PBA), and FCW and PBA with autonomous precrash braking (FCW + PBA + PB). The baseline ΔV was 17, 34, and 56.4 kph for median, severe, and U.S.-NCAP scenarios, respectively, and were based on crash reconstructions from NASS/CDS. Pulses were then developed based on the assumed precrash systems equipped. Restraint properties and the generic pulse used were based on literature. In median crash severity cases, little to no risk (<10% risk for Abbreviated injury Scale [AIS] 3+) was found for all injury measures for both models. In the severe set of cases, little to no risk for AIS 3+ injury was also found for all injury measures. In NCAP cases, highest risk was typically found with No PCS and lowest with FCW + PBA + PB. In the higher intensity braking cases (1.0-1.4 g), head injury criterion (HIC), brain injury criterion (BrIC), and chest deflection injury measures increased with increased braking intensity. All other measures for these cases tended to decrease. The ATD also predicted and trended similar to the human body models predictions for both the median, severe, and NCAP cases. Forward excursion for both models decreased across median, severe, and NCAP cases and diverged from each other in cases above 1.0 g of braking intensity. The addition of precrash systems simulated through reduced precrash speeds caused reductions in some injury criteria, whereas others (chest deflection, HIC, and BrIC) increased due to a modified occupant position. The human model and ATD models trended similarly in nearly all cases with greater risk indicated in the human model. These results suggest the need for integrated safety systems that have restraints that optimize the occupant's position during precrash braking and prior to impact.

Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

1997-11-01

The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

Identifying environmental risk factors and mapping the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, A.; Davis, J. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

Human West Nile virus (WNV) first arrived in the USA in 1999 and has since then spread across the country. Today, the highest incidence rates are found in the state of South Dakota. The disease occurrence depends on the complex interaction between the mosquito vector, the bird host and the dead-end human host. Understanding the spatial domain of this interaction and being able to identify disease transmission hotspots is crucial for effective disease prevention and mosquito control. In this study we use geospatial environmental information to understand what drives the spatial distribution of cases of human West Nile virus in South Dakota and to map relative infection risk across the state. To map the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota, we used geocoded human case data from the years 2004-2016. Satellite data from the Landsat ETM+ and MODIS for the years 2003 to 2016 were used to characterize environmental patterns. From these datasets we calculated indices, such as the normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized differenced water index (NDWI). In addition, datasets such as the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), National Wetland inventory (NWI), National Elevation Dataset (NED) and Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) were utilized. Environmental variables were summarized for a buffer zone around the case and control points. We used a boosted regression tree model to identify the most important variables describing the risk of WNV infection. We generated a risk map by applying this model across the entire state. We found that the highest relative risk is present in the James River valley in northeastern South Dakota. Factors that were identified as influencing the transmission risk include inter-annual variability of vegetation cover, water availability and temperature. Land covers such as grasslands, low developed areas and wetlands were also found to be good predictors for human West Nile Virus risk. We suggest that the combination of satellite data derived land cover indices with other geospatial environmental datasets can help to create improved disease transmission risk analyses.

The dynamics of human-water systems: comparing observations and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, G.; Ciullo, A.; Castellarin, A.; Viglione, A.

2016-12-01

Real-word data of human-flood interactions are compared to the results of stylized socio-hydrological models. These models build on numerous examples from different parts of the world and consider two main prototypes of floodplain systems. Green systems, whereby societies cope with flood risk via non-structural measures, e.g. resettling out of floodplain areas ("living with floods" approach); and Technological systems, whereby societies cope with flood risk by also via structural measures, e.g. building levees ("fighting floods" approach). The floodplain systems of the Tiber River in Rome and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh systems are used as case studies. The comparison of simulations and observations shows the potential of socio-hydrological models in capturing the dynamics of risk emerging from the interactions and feedbacks between social and hydrological processes, such as learning and forgetting effects. It is then discussed how the proposed approach can contribute to a better understanding of flood risk changes and therefore support the process of disaster risk reduction.

An automated method to morph finite element whole-body human models with a wide range of stature and body shape for both men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Fanta, Abeselom; Reed, Matthew P; Neal, Mark; Wang, Jenne-Tai; Lin, Chin-Hsu; Hu, Jingwen

2017-07-26

Field data analyses have shown that small female, obese, and/or older occupants are at increased risks of death and serious injury in motor-vehicle crashes compared with mid-size young men. The current adult finite element (FE) human models represent occupants in the same three body sizes (large male, mid-size male, and small female) as those for the contemporary adult crash dummies. Further, the time needed to develop an FE human model using the traditional method is measured in months or even years. In the current study, an improved regional mesh morphing method based on landmark-based radial basis function (RBF) interpolation was developed to rapidly morph a mid-size male FE human model into different geometry targets. A total of 100 human models with a wide range of human attributes were generated. A pendulum chest impact condition was applied to each model as an initial assessment of the resulting variability in response. The morphed models demonstrated mesh quality similar to the baseline model. The peak impact forces and chest deflections in the chest pendulum impacts varied substantially with different models, supportive of consideration of population variation in evaluating the occupant injury risks. The method developed in this study will enable future safety design optimizations targeting at various vulnerable populations that cannot be considered with the current models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human urine and plasma concentrations of bisphenol A extrapolated from pharmacokinetics established in in vivo experiments with chimeric mice with humanized liver and semi-physiological pharmacokinetic modeling.

PubMed

Miyaguchi, Takamori; Suemizu, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Makiko; Shida, Satomi; Nishiyama, Sayako; Takano, Ryohji; Murayama, Norie; Yamazaki, Hiroshi

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to extrapolate to humans the pharmacokinetics of estrogen analog bisphenol A determined in chimeric mice transplanted with human hepatocytes. Higher plasma concentrations and urinary excretions of bisphenol A glucuronide (a primary metabolite of bisphenol A) were observed in chimeric mice than in control mice after oral administrations, presumably because of enterohepatic circulation of bisphenol A glucuronide in control mice. Bisphenol A glucuronidation was faster in mouse liver microsomes than in human liver microsomes. These findings suggest a predominantly urinary excretion route of bisphenol A glucuronide in chimeric mice with humanized liver. Reported human plasma and urine data for bisphenol A glucuronide after single oral administration of 0.1mg/kg bisphenol A were reasonably estimated using the current semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model extrapolated from humanized mice data using algometric scaling. The reported geometric mean urinary bisphenol A concentration in the U.S. population of 2.64μg/L underwent reverse dosimetry modeling with the current human semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model. This yielded an estimated exposure of 0.024μg/kg/day, which was less than the daily tolerable intake of bisphenol A (50μg/kg/day), implying little risk to humans. Semi-physiological pharmacokinetic modeling will likely prove useful for determining the species-dependent toxicological risk of bisphenol A. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A hydrodynamics-based approach to evaluating the risk of waterborne pathogens entering drinking water intakes in a large, stratified lake.

PubMed

Hoyer, Andrea B; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Rueda, Francisco J

2015-10-15

Pathogen contamination of drinking water lakes and reservoirs is a severe threat to human health worldwide. A major source of pathogens in surface sources of drinking waters is from body-contact recreation in the water body. However, dispersion pathways of human waterborne pathogens from recreational beaches, where body-contact recreation is known to occur to drinking water intakes, and the associated risk of pathogens entering the drinking water supply remain largely undocumented. A high spatial resolution, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and particle tracking modeling approach has been developed to analyze the risk and mechanisms presented by pathogen dispersion. The pathogen model represents the processes of particle release, transport and survival. Here survival is a function of both water temperature and cumulative exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Pathogen transport is simulated using a novel and computationally efficient technique of tracking particle trajectories backwards, from a drinking water intake toward their source areas. The model has been applied to a large, alpine lake - Lake Tahoe, CA-NV (USA). The dispersion model results reveal that for this particular lake (1) the risk of human waterborne pathogens to enter drinking water intakes is low, but significant; (2) this risk is strongly related to the depth of the thermocline in relation to the depth of the intake; (3) the risk increases with the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer; and (4) the risk increases at night when the surface mixed layer deepens through convective mixing and inactivation by UV radiation is eliminated. While these risk factors will quantitatively vary in different lakes, these same mechanisms will govern the process of transport of pathogens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

Modeling Human Exposure to Indoor Contaminants: External Source to Body Tissues.

PubMed

Webster, Eva M; Qian, Hua; Mackay, Donald; Christensen, Rebecca D; Tietjen, Britta; Zaleski, Rosemary

2016-08-16

Information on human indoor exposure is necessary to assess the potential risk to individuals from many chemicals of interest. Dynamic indoor and human physicologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of the distribution of nonionizing, organic chemical concentrations in indoor environments resulting in delivered tissue doses are developed, described and tested. The Indoor model successfully reproduced independently measured, reported time-dependent air concentrations of chloroform released during showering and of 2-butyoxyethanol following use of a volatile surface cleaner. The Indoor model predictions were also comparable to those from a higher tier consumer model (ConsExpo 4.1) for the surface cleaner scenario. The PBPK model successful reproduced observed chloroform exhaled air concentrations resulting from an inhalation exposure. Fugacity based modeling provided a seamless description of the partitioning, fluxes, accumulation and release of the chemical in indoor media and tissues of the exposed subject. This has the potential to assist in health risk assessments, provided that appropriate physical/chemical property, usage characteristics, and toxicological information are available.

Atlas-guided volumetric diffuse optical tomography enhanced by generalized linear model analysis to image risk decision-making responses in young adults.

PubMed

Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

2014-08-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a variant of functional near infrared spectroscopy and has the capability of mapping or reconstructing three dimensional (3D) hemodynamic changes due to brain activity. Common methods used in DOT image analysis to define brain activation have limitations because the selection of activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM)-based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the atlas-guided 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with risk decision-making processes. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used to assess human risk-taking actions and tendencies while facing risks. We have used the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making from 37 human participants (22 males and 15 females). Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed after a human brain atlas template and a depth compensation algorithm were combined to form atlas-guided DOT images. In this work, we wish to demonstrate the excellence of using voxel-wise GLM analysis with DOT to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision-making. Results have shown significant hemodynamic changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active-choice mode and a different activation pattern between genders; these findings correlate well with published literature in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate suitability and human influences combined explain the range expansion of an invasive horticultural plant

Treesearch

Carolyn M. Beans; Francis F. Kilkenny; Laura F. Galloway

2012-01-01

Ecological niche models are commonly used to identify regions at risk of species invasions. Relying on climate alone may limit a model's success when additional variables contribute to invasion. While a climate-based model may predict the future spread of an invasive plant, we hypothesized that a model that combined climate with human influences would most...

Human health risk assessment related to contaminated land: state of the art.

PubMed

Swartjes, F A

2015-08-01

Exposure of humans to contaminants from contaminated land may result in many types of health damage ranging from relatively innocent symptoms such as skin eruption or nausea, on up to cancer or even death. Human health protection is generally considered as a major protection target. State-of-the-art possibilities and limitations of human health risk assessment tools are described in this paper. Human health risk assessment includes two different activities, i.e. the exposure assessment and the hazard assessment. The combination of these is called the risk characterization, which results in an appraisal of the contaminated land. Exposure assessment covers a smart combination of calculations, using exposure models, and measurements in contact media and body liquids and tissue (biomonitoring). Regarding the time frame represented by exposure estimates, biomonitoring generally relates to exposure history, measurements in contact media to actual exposures, while exposure calculations enable a focus on exposure in future situations. The hazard assessment, which is different for contaminants with or without a threshold for effects, results in a critical exposure value. Good human health risk assessment practice accounts for tiered approaches and multiple lines of evidence. Specific attention is given here to phenomena such as the time factor in human health risk assessment, suitability for the local situation, background exposure, combined exposure and harmonization of human health risk assessment tools.

Toxcast and the Use of Human Relevant In Vitro Exposures ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The path for incorporating new approach methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. These challenges include sufficient coverage of toxicological mechanisms to meaningfully interpret negative test results, development of increasingly relevant test systems, computational modeling to integrate experimental data, putting results in a dose and exposure context, characterizing uncertainty, and efficient validation of the test systems and computational models. The presentation will cover progress at the U.S. EPA in systematically addressing each of these challenges and delivering more human-relevant risk-based assessments. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy. Presentation at the British Toxicological Society Annual Congress on ToxCast and the Use of Human Relevant In Vitro Exposures: Incorporating high-throughput exposure and toxicity testing data for 21st century risk assessments .

The assessment of human health impact caused by industrial and civil activities in the Pace Valley of Messina.

PubMed

Morra, P; Lisi, R; Spadoni, G; Maschio, G

2009-06-01

The impact of industrial and civil activities on an agricultural and residential area is presented in a detailed and global analysis. The examined area is the Pace river valley situated in the northern zone of Messina (Italy). The sources of pollution present in the area are: a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator operating since 1979, a disused urban solid waste landfill which was used for 30 years, an urban solid waste treatment facility with heavy vehicles traffic, and two open pits for the production of bitumen. Large quantities of toxic, carcinogenic substances and criteria pollutants are released into the environment and represent potential hazards to human health. The analysis is performed using the EHHRA-GIS tool which employs an integrated, multimedia, multi-exposure pathways and multi-receptor risk assessment model that is able to manage all the steps which constitute the human health risk analysis in a georeferenced structure. The transport of pollutants in different environmental media is assessed applying models (AERMOD, GMS, CALINE) that take into account the particular three-dimensional morphology of the terrain. The results obtained, combined with a probabilistic risk assessment and a sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters, are a comprehensive assessment of the total human health risk in the area. Finally human health risks caused by toxic and carcinogenic substances are compared with acceptable legal limits in order to support environmental managers' decisions.

Effects of monetary reserves and rate of gain on human risky choice under budget constraints.

PubMed

Pietras, Cynthia J; Searcy, Gabriel D; Huitema, Brad E; Brandt, Andrew E

2008-07-01

The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts that choice should be risk averse when net gains plus reserves meet energy requirements (positive energy-budget conditions) and risk prone when net gains plus reserves fall below requirements (negative energy-budget conditions). Studies have shown that the energy-budget rule provides a good description of risky choice in humans when choice is studied under economic conditions (i.e., earnings budgets) that simulate positive and negative energy budgets. In previous human studies, earnings budgets were manipulated by varying earnings requirements, but in most nonhuman studies, energy budgets have been manipulated by varying reserves and/or mean rates of reinforcement. The present study therefore investigated choice in humans between certain and variable monetary outcomes when earnings budgets were manipulated by varying monetary reserves and mean rates of monetary gain. Consistent with the energy-budget rule, choice tended to be risk averse under positive-budget conditions and risk neutral or risk prone under negative-budget conditions. Sequential choices were also well described by a dynamic optimization model, especially when expected earnings for optimal choices were high. These results replicate and extend the results of prior experiments in showing that humans' choices are generally consistent with the predictions of the energy-budget rule when studied under conditions analogous to those used in nonhuman energy-budget studies, and that choice patterns tend to maximize reinforcement.

Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this report; and the ARRBOD GUI product is explained step by step in order to serve as a tutorial.

On Space Exploration and Human Error: A Paper on Reliability and Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, David G.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri

2005-01-01

NASA space exploration should largely address a problem class in reliability and risk management stemming primarily from human error, system risk and multi-objective trade-off analysis, by conducting research into system complexity, risk characterization and modeling, and system reasoning. In general, in every mission we can distinguish risk in three possible ways: a) known-known, b) known-unknown, and c) unknown-unknown. It is probably almost certain that space exploration will partially experience similar known or unknown risks embedded in the Apollo missions, Shuttle or Station unless something alters how NASA will perceive and manage safety and reliability

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil

PubMed Central

Uriarte, Maria; Tambosi, Leandro Reverberi; Prado, Amanda; Pardini, Renata; D´Andrea, Paulo Sérgio; Metzger, Jean Paul

2016-01-01

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks. PMID:27780250

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelhamer, M.; Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.

2014-01-01

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

Risk assessment of consuming agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater: An exposure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ginneken, Meike; Oron, Gideon

2000-09-01

This study assesses health risks to consumers due to the use of agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. The analysis is based on a definition of an exposure model which takes into account several parameters: (1) the quality of the applied wastewater, (2) the irrigation method, (3) the elapsed times between irrigation, harvest, and product consumption, and (4) the consumers' habits. The exposure model is used for numerical simulation of human consumers' risks using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of the numerical simulation show large deviations, probably caused by uncertainty (impreciseness in quality of input data) and variability due to diversity among populations. There is a 10-orders of magnitude difference in the risk of infection between the different exposure scenarios with the same water quality. This variation indicates the need for setting risk-based criteria for wastewater reclamation rather than single water quality guidelines. Extra data are required to decrease uncertainty in the risk assessment. Future research needs to include definition of acceptable risk criteria, more accurate dose-response modeling, information regarding pathogen survival in treated wastewater, additional data related to the passage of pathogens into and in the plants during irrigation, and information regarding the behavior patterns of the community of human consumers.

A review on the removal of antibiotics by carbon nanotubes.

PubMed

Cong, Qiao; Yuan, Xing; Qu, Jiao

2013-01-01

Increasing concerns have been raised regarding the potential risks of antibiotics to human and ecological health due to their extensive use. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have drawn special research attention because of their unique properties and potential applications as a kind of adsorbents. This review summarizes the currently available research on the adsorption of antibiotics on CNTs, and will provide useful information for CNT application and risk assessment. Four different models, the Freundlich model (FM), Langmuir model (LM), Polanyi-Mane model (PMM), and Dubinin-Ashtakhov model (DAM), are often used to fit the adsorption isotherms. Because different mechanisms may act simultaneously, including electrostatic interactions, hydrophobic interactions, π-π bonds, and hydrogen bonds, the prediction of organic chemical adsorption on CNTs is not straightforward. Properties of CNTs, such as specific surface area, adsorption sites, and oxygen content, may influence the adsorption of antibiotics on CNTs. Adsorption heterogeneity and hysteresis are two features of antibiotic-CNT interactions. In addition, CNTs with adsorbed antibiotics may have potential risks for human health. So, further research examining how to reduce such risks is needed.

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

PubMed Central

Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

2004-01-01

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz

PubMed Central

Yañez-Arenas, Carlos; Peterson, A. Townsend; Mokondoko, Pierre; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2014-01-01

Background Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low). PMID:24963989

Limitations in predicting the space radiation health risk for exploration astronauts.

PubMed

Chancellor, Jeffery C; Blue, Rebecca S; Cengel, Keith A; Auñón-Chancellor, Serena M; Rubins, Kathleen H; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Kennedy, Ann R

2018-01-01

Despite years of research, understanding of the space radiation environment and the risk it poses to long-duration astronauts remains limited. There is a disparity between research results and observed empirical effects seen in human astronaut crews, likely due to the numerous factors that limit terrestrial simulation of the complex space environment and extrapolation of human clinical consequences from varied animal models. Given the intended future of human spaceflight, with efforts now to rapidly expand capabilities for human missions to the moon and Mars, there is a pressing need to improve upon the understanding of the space radiation risk, predict likely clinical outcomes of interplanetary radiation exposure, and develop appropriate and effective mitigation strategies for future missions. To achieve this goal, the space radiation and aerospace community must recognize the historical limitations of radiation research and how such limitations could be addressed in future research endeavors. We have sought to highlight the numerous factors that limit understanding of the risk of space radiation for human crews and to identify ways in which these limitations could be addressed for improved understanding and appropriate risk posture regarding future human spaceflight.

Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

2018-01-01

Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate change. This study provides useful information to decision makers responsible for allocating resources to address disease risks. This approach provided a rapid, cost-effective method of risk assessment of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens for which the published literature is sparse.

NASA Occupant Protection Standards Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somers, Jeffrey; Gernhardt, Michael; Lawrence, Charles

2012-01-01

Historically, spacecraft landing systems have been tested with human volunteers, because analytical methods for estimating injury risk were insufficient. These tests were conducted with flight-like suits and seats to verify the safety of the landing systems. Currently, NASA uses the Brinkley Dynamic Response Index to estimate injury risk, although applying it to the NASA environment has drawbacks: (1) Does not indicate severity or anatomical location of injury (2) Unclear if model applies to NASA applications. Because of these limitations, a new validated, analytical approach was desired. Leveraging off of the current state of the art in automotive safety and racing, a new approach was developed. The approach has several aspects: (1) Define the acceptable level of injury risk by injury severity (2) Determine the appropriate human surrogate for testing and modeling (3) Mine existing human injury data to determine appropriate Injury Assessment Reference Values (IARV). (4) Rigorously Validate the IARVs with sub-injurious human testing (5) Use validated IARVs to update standards and vehicle requirement

Human System Drivers for Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundrot, Craig E.; Steinberg, Susan; Charles, John B.

2010-01-01

Evaluation of DRM4 in terms of the human system includes the ability to meet NASA standards, the inclusion of the human system in the design trade space, preparation for future missions and consideration of a robotic precursor mission. Ensuring both the safety and the performance capability of the human system depends upon satisfying NASA Space Flight Human System Standards.1 These standards in turn drive the development of program-specific requirements for Near-earth Object (NEO) missions. In evaluating DRM4 in terms of these human system standards, the currently existing risk models, technologies and biological countermeasures were used. A summary of this evaluation is provided below in a structure that supports a mission architecture planning activities. 1. Unacceptable Level of Risk The duration of the DRM4 mission leads to an unacceptable level of risk for two aspects of human system health: A. The permissible exposure limit for space flight radiation exposure (a human system standard) would be exceeded by DRM4. B. The risk of visual alterations and abnormally high intracranial pressure would be too high. 1

Human Risk of Infection with Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme Disease Agent, in Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Diuk-Wasser, Maria A.; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Cislo, Paul; Brinkerhoff, Robert; Hamer, Sarah A.; Rowland, Michelle; Cortinas, Roberto; Vourc'h, Gwenaël; Melton, Forrest; Hickling, Graham J.; Tsao, Jean I.; Bunikis, Jonas; Barbour, Alan G.; Kitron, Uriel; Piesman, Joseph; Fish, Durland

2012-01-01

The geographic pattern of human risk for infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the tick-borne pathogen that causes Lyme disease, was mapped for the eastern United States. The map is based on standardized field sampling in 304 sites of the density of Ixodes scapularis host-seeking nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi, which is closely associated with human infection risk. Risk factors for the presence and density of infected nymphs were used to model a continuous 8 km×8 km resolution predictive surface of human risk, including confidence intervals for each pixel. Discontinuous Lyme disease risk foci were identified in the Northeast and upper Midwest, with a transitional zone including sites with uninfected I. scapularis populations. Given frequent under- and over-diagnoses of Lyme disease, this map could act as a tool to guide surveillance, control, and prevention efforts and act as a baseline for studies tracking the spread of infection. PMID:22302869

Human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua; Hsiao, Yu-Jung

2016-09-01

A breakdown analysis of civil aviation accidents worldwide indicates that the occurrence of runway excursions represents the largest portion among all aviation occurrence categories. This study examines the human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions, by applying a SHELLO model to categorize the human risk factors and to evaluate the importance based on the opinions of 145 airline pilots. This study integrates aviation management level expert opinions on relative weighting and improvement-achievability in order to develop four kinds of priority risk management strategies for airline pilots to reduce runway excursions. The empirical study based on experts' evaluation suggests that the most important dimension is the liveware/pilot's core ability. From the perspective of front-line pilots, the most important risk factors are the environment, wet/containment runways, and weather issues like rain/thunderstorms. Finally, this study develops practical strategies for helping management authorities to improve major operational and managerial weaknesses so as to reduce the human risks related to runway excursions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

PubMed

Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-01

Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Coupling of computer modeling with in vitro methodologies to reduce animal usage in toxicity testing.

PubMed

Clewell, H J

1993-05-01

The use of in vitro data to support the development of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and to reduce the requirement for in vivo testing is demonstrated by three examples. In the first example, polychlorotrifluoroethylene, in vitro studies comparing metabolism and tissue response in rodents and primates made it possible to obtain definitive data for a human risk assessment without resorting to additional in vivo studies with primates. In the second example, a PBPK model for organophosphate esters was developed in which the parameters defining metabolism, tissue partitioning, and enzyme inhibition were all characterized by in vitro studies, and the rest of the model parameters were established from the literature. The resulting model was able to provide a coherent description of enzyme inhibition following both acute and chronic exposures in mice, rats, and humans. In the final example, the carcinogenic risk assessment for methylene chloride was refined by the incorporation of in vitro data on human metabolism into a PBPK model.

DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans.

PubMed

Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

2016-06-01

It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans.

MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

PubMed

Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

2015-03-15

Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While these differences are small compared to uncertainties in health risk assessment more generally, the ranks of different regions and of emissions categories as the focus of regulatory efforts estimated at these four levels of spatial resolution are quite different. The results suggest that issues of risk equity within a nation might be missed by the lower levels of spatial resolution, suggesting that low resolution models are suited to calculating national cost-benefit ratios but not as suited to assessing co-benefits of climate policies reflecting intersubject variability in risk, or in identifying sub-national regions and emissions sectors on which to focus attention (although even here, the errors introduced by low spatial resolution are generally less than 40%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling a continuous watershed-scale microbial fate and transport model with a stochastic dose-response model to estimate risk of illness in an urban watershed.

PubMed

Liao, Hehuan; Krometis, Leigh-Anne H; Kline, Karen

2016-05-01

Within the United States, elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) remain the leading cause of surface water-quality impairments requiring formal remediation plans under the federal Clean Water Act's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program. The sufficiency of compliance with numerical FIB criteria as the targeted endpoint of TMDL remediation plans may be questionable given poor correlations between FIB and pathogenic microorganisms and varying degrees of risk associated with exposure to different fecal pollution sources (e.g. human vs animal). The present study linked a watershed-scale FIB fate and transport model with a dose-response model to continuously predict human health risks via quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), for comparison to regulatory benchmarks. This process permitted comparison of risks associated with different fecal pollution sources in an impaired urban watershed in order to identify remediation priorities. Results indicate that total human illness risks were consistently higher than the regulatory benchmark of 36 illnesses/1000 people for the study watershed, even when the predicted FIB levels were in compliance with the Escherichia coli geometric mean standard of 126CFU/100mL. Sanitary sewer overflows were associated with the greatest risk of illness. This is of particular concern, given increasing indications that sewer leakage is ubiquitous in urban areas, yet not typically fully accounted for during TMDL development. Uncertainty analysis suggested the accuracy of risk estimates would be improved by more detailed knowledge of site-specific pathogen presence and densities. While previous applications of the QMRA process to impaired waterways have mostly focused on single storm events or hypothetical situations, the continuous modeling framework presented in this study could be integrated into long-term water quality management planning, especially the United States' TMDL program, providing greater clarity to watershed stakeholders and decision-makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; Verhaelen, Katharina; Rzeżutka, Artur; Kozyra, Iwona; Maunula, Leena; von Bonsdorff, Carl-Henrik; Vantarakis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Petros; Petrovic, Tamas; Lazic, Sava; Pavlik, Ivo; Vasickova, Petra; Willems, Kris A; Havelaar, Arie H; Rutjes, Saskia A; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2015-04-02

Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the monitoring results. This effect will be further aided by compliance with other hygiene and water quality regulations in production and processing facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF NOVEL DOSE-RESPONSE MODELS FOR USE IN MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This document contains a description of dose-response modeling methods designed to provide a robust approach under uncertainty for predicting human population risk from exposure to pathogens in drinking water.

The purpose of this document is to describe a body of literatu...

Quantitative assessment of human health risk posed by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban road dust.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-01-01

Among the numerous pollutants present in urban road dust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants and can pose cancer risk to humans. The primary aim of the study was to develop a quantitative model to assess the cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust based on traffic and land use factors and thereby to characterise the risk posed by PAHs in fine (<150μm) and coarse (>150μm) particles. The risk posed by PAHs was quantified as incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), which was modelled as a function of traffic volume and percentages of different urban land uses. The study outcomes highlighted the fact that cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust is primarily influenced by PAHs associated with fine solids. Heavy PAHs with 5 to 6 benzene rings, especially dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (D[a]A) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in the mixture contribute most to the risk. The quantitative model developed based on traffic and land use factors will contribute to informed decision making in relation to the management of risk posed by PAHs in urban road dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of human height-related genetic variants with familial short stature in Han Chinese in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Ying-Ju; Liao, Wen-Ling; Wang, Chung-Hsing; Tsai, Li-Ping; Tang, Chih-Hsin; Chen, Chien-Hsiun; Wu, Jer-Yuarn; Liang, Wen-Miin; Hsieh, Ai-Ru; Cheng, Chi-Fung; Chen, Jin-Hua; Chien, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Ting-Hsu; Wu, Chia-Ming; Liao, Chiu-Chu; Huang, Shao-Mei; Tsai, Fuu-Jen

2017-07-25

Human height can be described as a classical and inherited trait model. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed susceptible loci and provided insights into the polygenic nature of human height. Familial short stature (FSS) represents a suitable trait for investigating short stature genetics because disease associations with short stature have been ruled out in this case. In addition, FSS is caused only by genetically inherited factors. In this study, we explored the correlations of FSS risk with the genetic loci associated with human height in previous GWAS, alone and cumulatively. We systematically evaluated 34 known human height single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in relation to FSS in the additive model (p < 0.00005). A cumulative effect was observed: the odds ratios gradually increased with increasing genetic risk score quartiles (p < 0.001; Cochran-Armitage trend test). Six affected genes-ZBTB38, ZNF638, LCORL, CABLES1, CDK10, and TSEN15-are located in the nucleus and have been implicated in embryonic, organismal, and tissue development. In conclusion, our study suggests that 13 human height GWAS-identified SNPs are associated with FSS risk both alone and cumulatively.

A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in mountain communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Jorge; Haisch, Tina; Martius, Olivia; Mayer, Heike; Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

Recent extreme natural disasters have focused the attention of the global community to society's vulnerability to these events. Simultaneously these natural disasters occur within a broader social and physical context that is interconnected and may include social upheavals, economic crises, and climate change. While progress has been made to mitigate and adapt to natural hazards, much of the existing research lacks interdisciplinary approaches that equally consider both natural and social processes. More importantly, this lack of integration between approaches remains a major challenge in developing disaster risk management plans for communities. In this study we focus on European Alpine communities that face numerous human and environmental risks and differ regarding their ability to cope with these risks and develop resilience. Herein we present a conceptual model of mountain communities exposed to socio-economic (e.g. economic downturn) and biophysical (e.g. floods) "shocks". We identify system boundaries, structure, components, and processes required to describe both human and landscape systems for mountain communities. More importantly we determine feedbacks within and between both systems. The purpose of the model is to investigate which shocks overcome the buffering capacity of mountain communities, and determine which shocks have a greater effect on mountain communities. Socioeconomic, climate, and hazard 'shock' scenarios have been developed for communities with different geographic sizes. Examples of inputs for the model and methods required to test the model are provided. Guided by the model and scenarios we discuss potential outcomes regarding community resilience.

Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-11-15

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculationsmore » were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.« less

Integrating human and ecological risk assessment: application to the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom problem.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Munns, Wayne R

2008-01-01

Environmental and public health policy continues to evolve in response to new and complex social, economic and environmental drivers. Globalization and centralization of commerce, evolving patterns of land use (e.g., urbanization, deforestation), and technological advances in such areas as manufacturing and development of genetically modified foods have created new and complex classes of stressors and risks (e.g., climate change, emergent and opportunist disease, sprawl, genomic change). In recognition of these changes, environmental risk assessment and its use are changing from stressor-endpoint specific assessments used in command and control types of decisions to an integrated approach for application in community-based decisions. As a result, the process of risk assessment and supporting risk analyses are evolving to characterize the human-environment relationship. Integrating risk paradigms combine the process of risk estimation for humans, biota, and natural resources into one assessment to improve the information used in environmental decisions (Suter et al. 2003b). A benefit to this approach includes a broader, system-wide evaluation that considers the interacting effects of stressors on humans and the environment, as well the interactions between these entities. To improve our understanding of the linkages within complex systems, risk assessors will need to rely on a suite of techniques for conducting rigorous analyses characterizing the exposure and effects relationships between stressors and biological receptors. Many of the analytical techniques routinely employed are narrowly focused and unable to address the complexities of an integrated assessment. In this paper, we describe an approach to integrated risk assessment, and discuss qualitative community modeling and Probabilistic Relational Modeling techniques that address these limitations and evaluate their potential for use in an integrated risk assessment of cyanobacteria.

Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic framework for assessing human health risk due to groundwater contamination. Our goal is to quantify how physical hydrogeological and biochemical parameters control the magnitude and uncertainty of human health risk. Our methodology captures the whole risk chain from the aquifer contamination to the tap water assumption by human population. The contaminant concentration, the key parameter for the risk estimation, is governed by the interplay between the large-scale advection, caused by heterogeneity and the degradation processes strictly related to the local scale dispersion processes. The core of the hazard identification and of the methodology is the reactive transport model: erratic displacement of contaminant in groundwater, due to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity (K), is characterized by a first-order Lagrangian stochastic model; different dynamics are considered as possible ways of biodegradation in aerobic and anaerobic conditions. With the goal of quantifying uncertainty, the Beta distribution is assumed for the concentration probability density function (pdf) model, while different levels of approximation are explored for the estimation of the one-point concentration moments. The information pertaining the flow and transport is connected with a proper dose response assessment which generally involves the estimation of physiological parameters of the exposed population. Human health response depends on the exposed individual metabolism (e.g. variability) and is subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the health parameters are intrinsically a stochastic. As a consequence, we provide an integrated in a global probabilistic human health risk framework which allows the propagation of the uncertainty from multiple sources. The final result, the health risk pdf, is expressed as function of a few relevant, physically-based parameters such as the size of the injection area, the Péclet number, the K structure metrics and covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

The Use Of Computational Human Performance Modeling As Task Analysis Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacuqes Hugo; David Gertman

2012-07-01

During a review of the Advanced Test Reactor safety basis at the Idaho National Laboratory, human factors engineers identified ergonomic and human reliability risks involving the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during manual fuel movement and inspection in the canal. There were clear indications that these risks increased the probability of human error and possible severe physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, a detailed study was conducted to determine the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element. Due to practical and safety constraints, the task network analysis technique was employedmore » to study the work procedures at the canal. Discrete-event simulation software was used to model the entire procedure as well as the salient physical attributes of the task environment, such as distances walked, the effect of dropped tools, the effect of hazardous body postures, and physical exertion due to strenuous tool handling. The model also allowed analysis of the effect of cognitive processes such as visual perception demands, auditory information and verbal communication. The model made it possible to obtain reliable predictions of operator performance and workload estimates. It was also found that operator workload as well as the probability of human error in the fuel inspection and transfer task were influenced by the concurrent nature of certain phases of the task and the associated demand on cognitive and physical resources. More importantly, it was possible to determine with reasonable accuracy the stages as well as physical locations in the fuel handling task where operators would be most at risk of losing their balance and falling into the canal. The model also provided sufficient information for a human reliability analysis that indicated that the postulated fuel exposure accident was less than credible.« less

Acute radiation risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, Olga

Biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lineages (the thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems) in acutely/chronically irradiated humans are developed. These models are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations, which variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning. It is shown that the developed models are capable of reproducing clinical data on the dynamics of these systems in humans exposed to acute radiation in the result of incidents and accidents, as well as in humans exposed to low-level chronic radiation. Moreover, the averaged value of the "lethal" dose rates of chronic irradiation evaluated within models of these four major hematopoietic lineages coincides with the real minimal dose rate of lethal chronic irradiation. The demonstrated ability of the models of the human thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems to predict the dynamical response of these systems to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates implies that these mathematical models form an universal tool for the investigation and prediction of the dynamics of the major human hematopoietic lineages for a vast pattern of irradiation scenarios. In particular, these models could be applied for the radiation risk assessment for health of astronauts exposed to space radiation during long-term space missions, such as voyages to Mars or Lunar colonies, as well as for health of people exposed to acute/chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR INTEGRATED HUMAN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL

EPA Science Inventory

While there is a high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from hazardous waste sites, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually divided among parameter, model, and modeler uncertainties imparted during simula...

DEVELOPMENT OF A MICROSCALE EMISSION FACTOR MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER (MICROFACPM) FOR PREDICTING REAL TIME MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Health risk evaluation needs precise measurement and modeling of human exposures in microenvironments to support review of current air quality standards. The particulate matter emissions from motor vehicles are a major component of human exposures in urban microenvironments. Cu...

Distributions of observed death tolls govern sensitivity to human fatalities

PubMed Central

Olivola, Christopher Y.; Sagara, Namika

2009-01-01

How we react to humanitarian crises, epidemics, and other tragic events involving the loss of human lives depends largely on the extent to which we are moved by the size of their associated death tolls. Many studies have demonstrated that people generally exhibit a diminishing sensitivity to the number of human fatalities and, equivalently, a preference for risky (vs. sure) alternatives in decisions under risk involving human losses. However, the reason for this tendency remains unknown. Here we show that the distributions of event-related death tolls that people observe govern their evaluations of, and risk preferences concerning, human fatalities. In particular, we show that our diminishing sensitivity to human fatalities follows from the fact that these death tolls are approximately power-law distributed. We further show that, by manipulating the distribution of mortality-related events that people observe, we can alter their risk preferences in decisions involving fatalities. Finally, we show that the tendency to be risk-seeking in mortality-related decisions is lower in countries in which high-mortality events are more frequently observed. Our results support a model of magnitude evaluation based on memory sampling and relative judgment. This model departs from the utility-based approaches typically encountered in psychology and economics in that it does not rely on stable, underlying value representations to explain valuation and choice, or on choice behavior to derive value functions. Instead, preferences concerning human fatalities emerge spontaneously from the distributions of sampled events and the relative nature of the evaluation process. PMID:20018778

DEVELOPMENT AND REVIEW OF MONITORING METHODS AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS USED TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF BIOSOLIDS LAND APPLICATION ON HUMAN HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Development and Review of monitoring methods and risk assessment models for biosolids land application impacts on air and land

Ronald F Herrmann (NRMRL), Mike Broder (NCEA), and Mike Ware (NERL)

Science Questions .

MYP Science Question: What additional model...

The SAM framework: modeling the effects of management factors on human behavior in risk analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, D M; Paté-Cornell, M E

1996-08-01

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System-Action-Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule-based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re-designing the physical system.

Probabilistic pharmacokinetic models of decompression sickness in humans, part 1: Coupled perfusion-limited compartments.

PubMed

Murphy, F Gregory; Hada, Ethan A; Doolette, David J; Howle, Laurens E

2017-07-01

Decompression sickness (DCS) is a disease caused by gas bubbles forming in body tissues following a reduction in ambient pressure, such as occurs in scuba diving. Probabilistic models for quantifying the risk of DCS are typically composed of a collection of independent, perfusion-limited theoretical tissue compartments which describe gas content or bubble volume within these compartments. It has been previously shown that 'pharmacokinetic' gas content models, with compartments coupled in series, show promise as predictors of the incidence of DCS. The mechanism of coupling can be through perfusion or diffusion. This work examines the application of five novel pharmacokinetic structures with compartments coupled by perfusion to the prediction of the probability and time of onset of DCS in humans. We optimize these models against a training set of human dive trial data consisting of 4335 exposures with 223 DCS cases. Further, we examine the extrapolation quality of the models on an additional set of human dive trial data consisting of 3140 exposures with 147 DCS cases. We find that pharmacokinetic models describe the incidence of DCS for single air bounce dives better than a single-compartment, perfusion-limited model. We further find the U.S. Navy LEM-NMRI98 is a better predictor of DCS risk for the entire training set than any of our pharmacokinetic models. However, one of the pharmacokinetic models we consider, the CS2T3 model, is a better predictor of DCS risk for single air bounce dives and oxygen decompression dives. Additionally, we find that LEM-NMRI98 outperforms CS2T3 on the extrapolation data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-Individual Variability in High-Throughput Risk Prioritization of Environmental Chemicals (Sot)

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporate realistic human variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which have...

ASSESSING CHILDREN'S EXPOSURES TO PESTICIDES: AN IMPORTANT APPLICATION OF THE STOCHASTIC HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE SIMULATION MODEL (SHEDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Accurately quantifying human exposures and doses of various populations to environmental pollutants is critical for the Agency to assess and manage human health risks. For example, the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 (FQPA) requires EPA to consider aggregate human exposure ...

Vortex Lattice UXO Mobility Model for Reef-Type Range Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

unexploded ordnance WAA Wide Area Assessment 10...of a given underwater UXO field. By using the upgraded UXO MM to develop an initial Wide Area Assessment (WAA), that subdivides a UXO field into... areas outside of human contact and b) areas where UXO are fully stabilized and pose little risk to humans. Further consideration of the risks presented

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Human Dose-Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose- and Time-Dependent Mathematical Model of Early-Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure.

PubMed

McClellan, Gene; Coleman, Margaret; Crary, David; Thurman, Alec; Thran, Brandolyn

2018-04-25

Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de-identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early-phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose-response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near-maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose-dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual-by-individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early-phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

CO2 Leakage-Induced Shallow Aquifer Contaminations and Associated Health Risk Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C. Y.; Han, W. S.; Park, E.; Choung, S.; Piao, J.; Han, G.; Tianfu, X.

2016-12-01

Leakage of stored CO2 from designated deep formation could degrade portable groundwater quality in overlaying shallow aquifers. Dissolution of leaked CO2 causes to reduction of pH and alters dominant geochemical reactions, which ultimately enhances mobility of toxic heavy metals in shallow aquifer. In this study, among various toxic heavy metals, mobilization of As and U were focused because these metals are considered to be cancer potency factor when human being continuously exposes for long period. For this reason, it is critical to evaluate relationship between the amount of leaked CO2 into shallow aquifer and a degree of mobility in As and U. In the end, cancer risk to human body were quantified with probabilistic approach after accounting for shallow groundwater velocity, pumping rate from residential well, geologic heterogeneity. For this study, two-dimensional reactive transport models were developed. Geologic heterogeneity was accounted with three interbedded rock types, which consisted of sandstone, As and U bearing shale, and carbonate rocks, respectively. Within these three-rock types, variability includes changes in permeability, porosity, a type of minerals, and its volume fraction, accounting for both physical and chemical heterogeneities Finally, human health risk is calculated through multiplying cancer potency factor by average daily dose, which is obtained after acquiring for both As and U concentrations profile at residential well through reactive transport modeling. As per variability, a series of human health risks were calculated. Quantification of risk in conjunction with sensitivity analysis aids to evaluate a list of geologic parameters enhancing human health risk.

Simulation-based assessment for construction helmets.

PubMed

Long, James; Yang, James; Lei, Zhipeng; Liang, Daan

2015-01-01

In recent years, there has been a concerted effort for greater job safety in all industries. Personnel protective equipment (PPE) has been developed to help mitigate the risk of injury to humans that might be exposed to hazardous situations. The human head is the most vulnerable to impact as a moderate magnitude can cause serious injury or death. That is why industries have required the use of an industrial hard hat or helmet. There have only been a few articles published to date that are focused on the risk of head injury when wearing an industrial helmet. A full understanding of the effectiveness of construction helmets on reducing injury is lacking. This paper presents a simulation-based method to determine the threshold at which a human will sustain injury when wearing a construction helmet and assesses the risk of injury for wearers of construction helmets or hard hats. Advanced finite element, or FE, models were developed to study the impact on construction helmets. The FE model consists of two parts: the helmet and the human models. The human model consists of a brain, enclosed by a skull and an outer layer of skin. The level and probability of injury to the head was determined using both the head injury criterion (HIC) and tolerance limits set by Deck and Willinger. The HIC has been widely used to assess the likelihood of head injury in vehicles. The tolerance levels proposed by Deck and Willinger are more suited for finite element models but lack wide-scale validation. Different cases of impact were studied using LSTC's LS-DYNA.

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Corbin, Barbara J.; Sulzman, Frank M.; Krenek, Sam

2007-01-01

In space, astronauts are constantly bombarded with energetic particles. The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the NASA Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. Among the identified radiation risks are cancer, acute and late CNS damage, chronic and degenerative tissue decease, and acute radiation syndrome. The term "safely" means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences can be defined. The NASA Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting the identified radiation risks. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus, the fourth element develops computer algorithms to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Major psychological factors affecting acceptance of gene-recombination technology.

PubMed

Tanaka, Yutaka

2004-12-01

The purpose of this study was to verify the validity of a causal model that was made to predict the acceptance of gene-recombination technology. A structural equation model was used as a causal model. First of all, based on preceding studies, the factors of perceived risk, perceived benefit, and trust were set up as important psychological factors determining acceptance of gene-recombination technology in the structural equation model. An additional factor, "sense of bioethics," which I consider to be important for acceptance of biotechnology, was added to the model. Based on previous studies, trust was set up to have an indirect influence on the acceptance of gene-recombination technology through perceived risk and perceived benefit in the model. Participants were 231 undergraduate students in Japan who answered a questionnaire with a 5-point bipolar scale. The results indicated that the proposed model fits the data well, and showed that acceptance of gene-recombination technology is explained largely by four factors, that is, perceived risk, perceived benefit, trust, and sense of bioethics, whether the technology is applied to plants, animals, or human beings. However, the relative importance of the four factors was found to vary depending on whether the gene-recombination technology was applied to plants, animals, or human beings. Specifically, the factor of sense of bioethics is the most important factor in acceptance of plant gene-recombination technology and animal gene-recombination technology, and the factors of trust and perceived risk are the most important factors in acceptance of human being gene-recombination technology.

Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Lab Study Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliva-Buisson, Yvette J.

2014-01-01

The HEMAP (Human Engineering Modeling and Performance) Lab is a joint effort between the Industrial and Human Engineering group and the KAVE (Kennedy Advanced Visualiations Environment) group. The lab consists of sixteen camera system that is used to capture human motions and operational tasks, through te use of a Velcro suit equipped with sensors, and then simulate these tasks in an ergonomic software package know as Jac, The Jack software is able to identify the potential risk hazards.

A mouse model of severe halothane hepatitis based on human risk factors.

PubMed

Dugan, Christine M; MacDonald, Allen E; Roth, Robert A; Ganey, Patricia E

2010-05-01

Halothane (2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoro-ethane) is an inhaled anesthetic that induces severe, idiosyncratic liver injury, i.e., "halothane hepatitis," in approximately 1 in 20,000 human patients. We used known human risk factors (female sex, adult age, and genetics) as well as probable risk factors (fasting and inflammatory stress) to develop a murine model with characteristics of human halothane hepatitis. Female and male BALB/cJ mice treated with halothane developed dose-dependent liver injury within 24 h; however, the liver injury was severe only in females. Livers had extensive centrilobular necrosis, inflammatory cell infiltrate, and steatosis. Fasting rendered mice more sensitive to halothane hepatotoxicity, and 8-week-old female mice were more sensitive than males of the same age or than younger (4-week-old) females. C57BL/6 mice were insensitive to halothane, suggesting a strong genetic predisposition. In halothane-treated females, plasma concentration of tumor necrosis factor-alpha was greater than in males, and neutrophils were recruited to liver more rapidly and to a greater extent. Anti-CD18 serum attenuated halothane-induced liver injury in female mice, suggesting that neutrophil migration, activation, or both are required for injury. Coexposure of halothane-treated male mice to lipopolysaccharide to induce modest inflammatory stress converted their mild hepatotoxic response to a pronounced, female-like response. This is the first animal model of an idiosyncratic adverse drug reaction that is based on human risk factors and produces reproducible, severe hepatitis from halothane exposure with lesions characteristic of human halothane hepatitis. Moreover, these results suggest that a more robust innate immune response underlies the predisposition of female mice to halothane hepatitis.

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Gambling for Gatorade: risk-sensitive decision making for fluid rewards in humans

PubMed Central

Platt, Michael L.

2009-01-01

Determining how both humans and animals make decisions in risky situations is a central problem in economics, experimental psychology, behavioral economics, and neurobiology. Typically, humans are risk seeking for gains and risk averse for losses, while animals may display a variety of preferences under risk depending on, amongst other factors, internal state. Such differences in behavior may reflect major cognitive and cultural differences or they may reflect differences in the way risk sensitivity is probed in humans and animals. Notably, in most studies humans make one or a few choices amongst hypothetical or real monetary options, while animals make dozens of repeated choices amongst options offering primary rewards like food or drink. To address this issue, we probed risk-sensitive decision making in human participants using a paradigm modeled on animal studies, in which rewards were either small squirts of Gatorade or small amounts of real money. Possible outcomes and their probabilities were not made explicit in either case. We found that individual patterns of decision making were strikingly similar for both juice and for money, both in overall risk preferences and in trial-to-trial effects of reward outcome on choice. Comparison with decisions made by monkeys for juice in a similar task revealed highly similar gambling styles. These results unite known patterns of risk-sensitive decision making in human and nonhuman primates and suggest that factors such as the way a decision is framed or internal state may underlie observed variation in risk preferences between and within species. PMID:18719953

Human Immune Function and Microbial Pathogenesis in Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Duane J.; Ott, M.

2006-01-01

This oral presentation was requested by Conference conveners. The requested subject is microbial risk assessment considering changes in the human immune system during flight and microbial diversity of environmental samples aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The presentation will begin with an introduction discussing the goals and limitations of microbial risk assessment during flight. The main portion of the presentation will include changes in the immune system that have been published, historical data from microbial analyses, and initial modeling of the environmental flora aboard ISS. The presentation will conclude with future goals and techniques to enhance our ability to perform microbial risk assessment on long duration missions.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Spacecraft Particle Detectors to Assess the True Human Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neill, Patrick M.

2002-01-01

Particle detectors (DOSTEL, CPDS, and TEPC) measure the energy deposition spectrum inside earth orbiting - manned spacecraft (shuttle, space station). These instruments attempt to emulate the deposition of energy in human tissue to evaluate the health risk. However, the measurements are often difficult to relate to tissue equivalent because nuclear fragmentation (internuclear cascade/evaporation), energy-loss straggling, heavy ions, spacecraft shielding and detector geometry/orientation, and coincidence thresholds significantly affect the measured spectrum. 'A le have developed a high fidelity Monte Carlo model addressing each of these effects that significantly improves interpretation of these instruments and the resulting assessment of radiation risk to humans.

Integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment through the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from relevant stressors across different species. Integration is important to provide a more complete assessment of risk, but evaluating endpoints a...

Risk Reduction and Resource Pooling on a Cooperation Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pietras, Cynthia J.; Cherek, Don R.; Lane, Scott D.; Tcheremissine, Oleg

2006-01-01

Two experiments investigated choice in adult humans on a simulated cooperation task to evaluate a risk-reduction account of sharing based on the energy-budget rule. The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts risk-averse choices when net energy gains exceed energy requirements (positive energy budget) and risk-prone choices…

Assessment of the risk of salmonellosis from internally contaminated shell eggs following initial storage at 18 °C (65 °F), compared with 7 °C (45 °F).

PubMed

Pouillot, R; Hoelzer, K; Ramirez, G A; deGraft-Hanson, J; Dennis, S B

2014-10-01

In the U.S., chicken-breeder farms that supply hatcheries typically store and transport eggs intended for broiler production at a temperature of 18.3 °C (65 °F). However, in case of surplus, some of these eggs may be diverted to human consumption. According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's 'Egg Safety Final Rule,' shell eggs intended for human consumption are required to be held or transported at or below 7.2 °C (45 °F) ambient temperature beginning 36 h after time of lay. We adapted a risk assessment model developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety Inspection Service, to quantify human exposure to Salmonella Enteritidis and the risk of human salmonellosis if eggs are held and transported at 18.3 °C for up to 5.5 days after time of lay, as has been observed when hatchery eggs are diverted to human consumption, rather than held and transported at 7.2 °C within 36 h after time of lay. Storage at 18.3 °C leads to considerable bacterial growth in internally contaminated eggs. The model predicted that more than 10% of internally contaminated eggs would remain contaminated after in-shell pasteurization resulting in a 5-log10 reduction, and that some bacteria would survive after home-cooking. The model predicted that, alternatively, eggs stored at 7.2 °C after lay would have limited bacterial growth prior to pasteurization, and Salmonella would be very unlikely to be present after pasteurization. The predicted risk of salmonellosis from the consumption of eggs held and transported at 18.3 °C and subsequently diverted to human consumption is 25 times higher than the risk when eggs are held and transported at 7.2 °C. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Thermal Indices and Thermophysiological Modeling for Heat Stress.

PubMed

Havenith, George; Fiala, Dusan

2015-12-15

The assessment of the risk of human exposure to heat is a topic as relevant today as a century ago. The introduction and use of heat stress indices and models to predict and quantify heat stress and heat strain has helped to reduce morbidity and mortality in industrial, military, sports, and leisure activities dramatically. Models used range from simple instruments that attempt to mimic the human-environment heat exchange to complex thermophysiological models that simulate both internal and external heat and mass transfer, including related processes through (protective) clothing. This article discusses the most commonly used indices and models and looks at how these are deployed in the different contexts of industrial, military, and biometeorological applications, with focus on use to predict related thermal sensations, acute risk of heat illness, and epidemiological analysis of morbidity and mortality. A critical assessment is made of tendencies to use simple indices such as WBGT in more complex conditions (e.g., while wearing protective clothing), or when employed in conjunction with inappropriate sensors. Regarding the more complex thermophysiological models, the article discusses more recent developments including model individualization approaches and advanced systems that combine simulation models with (body worn) sensors to provide real-time risk assessment. The models discussed in the article range from historical indices to recent developments in using thermophysiological models in (bio) meteorological applications as an indicator of the combined effect of outdoor weather settings on humans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Radiation Hormesis: Historical Perspective and Implications for Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Vaiserman, Alexander M.

2010-01-01

Current guidelines for limiting exposure of humans to ionizing radiation are based on the linear-no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis for radiation carcinogenesis under which cancer risk increases linearly as the radiation dose increases. With the LNT model even a very small dose could cause cancer and the model is used in establishing guidelines for limiting radiation exposure of humans. A slope change at low doses and dose rates is implemented using an empirical dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). This imposes usually unacknowledged nonlinearity but not a threshold in the dose-response curve for cancer induction. In contrast, with the hormetic model, low doses of radiation reduce the cancer incidence while it is elevated after high doses. Based on a review of epidemiological and other data for exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates, it was found that the LNT model fails badly. Cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (medical X-rays, natural background radiation, etc.) is much lower than projections based on the LNT model and is often less than the risk for spontaneous cancer (a hormetic response). Understanding the mechanistic basis for hormetic responses will provide new insights about both risks and benefits from low-dose radiation exposure. PMID:20585444

Risk Assessment of Human Toxoplasmosis Associated with the Consumption of Pork Meat in Italy.

PubMed

Condoleo, Roberto; Rinaldi, Laura; Sette, Stefania; Mezher, Ziad

2018-06-01

Toxoplasmosis is a cosmopolitan disease and has a broad range of hosts, including humans and several wild and domestic animals. The human infection is mostly acquired through the consumption of contaminated food and pork meat has been recognized as one of the major sources of transmission. There are, however, certain fundamental differences between countries; therefore, the present study specifically aims to evaluate the exposure of the Italian population to Toxoplasma gondii through the ingestion of several types of pork meat products habitually consumed in Italy and to estimate the annual number of human infections within two subgroups of the population. A quantitative risk assessment model was built for this reason and was enriched with new elements in comparison to other similar risk assessments in order to enhance its accuracy. Sensitivity analysis and two alternative scenarios were implemented to identify the factors that have the highest impact on risk and to simulate different plausible conditions, respectively. The estimated overall average number of new infections per year among adults is 12,513 and 92 for pregnant women. The baseline model showed that almost all these infections are associated with the consumption of fresh meat cuts and preparations (mean risk of infection varied between 4.5 × 10 -5 and 5.5 × 10 -5 ) and only a small percentage is due to fermented sausages/salami. On the contrary, salt-cured meat products seem to pose minor risk but further investigations are needed to clarify still unclear aspects. Among all the considered variables, cooking temperature and bradyzoites' concentration in muscle impacted most the risk. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Human variability in high-throughput risk prioritization of environmental chemicals (Texas AM U. webinar)

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporate inter-individual variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which hav...

A Mouse Model to Investigate Postmenopausal Biology as an Etiology of Ovarian Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

Wv mice and genetic alterations such as p53, pten, or p27kip1, which are found in human ovarian cancer. 2. Body: Research Progress In the first year...press (Yang et al., Am. J. Pathology 2007). To collaborate with the mouse model study, we have also examined human ovaries obtained from prophylactic...results in the coming years. Xu, Xiangxi, Ph.D. 8 3. Key Research Accomplishments (1) Further verify the relevance of the Wv mouse model to human

Integrated Water and Sanitation Risk Assessment and Modeling in the Upper Sonora River basin (Northwest, Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A. S.; Robles-Morua, A.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Auer, M. T.

2011-12-01

Studies that integrate human dimensions and the biophysical characteristics of watersheds are necessary to meet the challenge of sustainable water resources development. In this project, we integrated perspectives from sociology, hydrology, and environmental engineering to examine and suggest solutions for managing waterborne disease risks associated with wastewater contamination in the Sonora River basin (SRB), a semiarid rural basin in northwest Mexico. This research consisted of four sub-projects. First, we assessed the perceptions of risks associated with wastewater contamination of water resources in rural communities in the SRB through a series of semi-structured interviews Results from this study indicate that there are major differences in risk perceptions among health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Government officials and lay citizens tend to underestimate the severity of the problems related to water related risks. Second, a fully distributed hydrologic model was used to make streamflow predictions in the un-gauged SRB. Synthetic flows generated from the hydrologic model were used to evaluate pollutant transport processes associated with wastewater loadings to the Sonora River. The hydrologic model revealed that the high degree of spatio-temporal variability of runoff in the SRB is associated with links between runoff generation mechanisms and land-atmosphere interactions. Third, a surface water quality model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges and develop pathogen contamination indicators in two sites along the Sonora River. To parameterize the water quality model, pathogenic indicator loadings and removal rates were estimated, along with their uncertainty. Results from the water quality modeling show regions in the watershed that may be exceeding pathogenic standards, but also that uncertainty in model parameters requires a probabilistic approach for estimating risks. Finally, a workshop was conducted to explore the use of participatory modeling frameworks in less developed regions. Results indicate that respondents agreed strongly with the hydrologic and water quality modeling methodologies presented and considered the modeling results useful. Our results also show that participatory modeling approaches can have short term impacts as seen in the changes in water-related risk perceptions. In total, these projects revealed that water resources management solutions need to take into account variations across the human landscape (i.e. risk perceptions) and variations in the biophysical response of watersheds to natural phenomena (i.e. streamflow generation) and to anthropogenic activities (i.e. contaminant fate and transport). In addition, this work underscores the notion that sustainable water resources solutions need to contend with uncertainty in our understanding and predictions of human perceptions and biophysical systems.

Admission Models for At-Risk Graduate Students in Different Academic Disciplines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, C. Van; Nelson, Jacquelyn S.; Malone, Bobby G.

In this study, models were constructed for eight academic areas, including applied sciences, communication sciences, education, physical sciences, life sciences, humanities and arts, psychology, and social sciences, to predict whether or not an at-risk graduate student would be successful in obtaining a master's degree. Records were available for…

Social Psychological Dynamics of Enhanced HIV Risk Reduction among Peer Interventionists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Weeks, Margaret R.; Convey, Mark; Li, Jianghong

2011-01-01

The authors present a model of interactive social psychological and relational feedback processes leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction behavior change among active drug users trained as Peer Health Advocates (PHAs). The model is supported by data from qualitative interviews with PHAs and members of their drug-using networks…

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration

PubMed Central

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation. PMID:26697408

Radiation Measurements Performed with Active Detectors Relevant for Human Space Exploration.

PubMed

Narici, Livio; Berger, Thomas; Matthiä, Daniel; Reitz, Günther

2015-01-01

A reliable radiation risk assessment in space is a mandatory step for the development of countermeasures and long-duration mission planning in human spaceflight. Research in radiobiology provides information about possible risks linked to radiation. In addition, for a meaningful risk evaluation, the radiation exposure has to be assessed to a sufficient level of accuracy. Consequently, both the radiation models predicting the risks and the measurements used to validate such models must have an equivalent precision. Corresponding measurements can be performed both with passive and active devices. The former is easier to handle, cheaper, lighter, and smaller but they measure neither the time dependence of the radiation environment nor some of the details useful for a comprehensive radiation risk assessment. Active detectors provide most of these details and have been extensively used in the International Space Station. To easily access such an amount of data, a single point access is becoming essential. This review presents an ongoing work on the development of a tool that allows obtaining information about all relevant measurements performed with active detectors providing reliable inputs for radiation model validation.

Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.Expo

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Exposure Event module of TRIM (TRIM.Expo), similar to most human exposure models, provides an analysis of the relationships between various chemical concentrations in the environment and exposure levels of humans.

Transmission of Bacterial Zoonotic Pathogens between Pets and Humans: The Role of Pet Food.

PubMed

Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Narrod, Clare; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-01-01

Recent Salmonella outbreaks associated with dry pet food and treats raised the level of concern for these products as vehicle of pathogen exposure for both pets and their owners. The need to characterize the microbiological and risk profiles of this class of products is currently not supported by sufficient specific data. This systematic review summarizes existing data on the main variables needed to support an ingredients-to-consumer quantitative risk model to (1) describe the microbial ecology of bacterial pathogens in the dry pet food production chain, (2) estimate pet exposure to pathogens through dry food consumption, and (3) assess human exposure and illness incidence due to contact with pet food and pets in the household. Risk models populated with the data here summarized will provide a tool to quantitatively address the emerging public health concerns associated with pet food and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Results of such models can provide a basis for improvements in production processes, risk communication to consumers, and regulatory action.

Applying Social Psychological Models to Predicting HIV-Related Sexual Risk Behaviors Among African Americans

PubMed Central

Cochran, Susan D.; Mays, Vickie M.

2011-01-01

Existing models of attitude-behavior relationships, including the Health Belief Model, the Theory of Reasoned Action, and the Self-Efficacy Theory, are increasingly being used by psychologists to predict human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related risk behaviors. The authors briefly highlight some of the difficulties that might arise in applying these models to predicting the risk behaviors of African Americans. These social psychological models tend to emphasize the importance of individualistic, direct control of behavioral choices and deemphasize factors, such as racism and poverty, particularly relevant to that segment of the African American population most at risk for HIV infection. Applications of these models without taking into account the unique issues associated with behavioral choices within the African American community may fail to capture the relevant determinants of risk behaviors. PMID:23529205

Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010

PubMed Central

Kwan, Jennifer L.; Park, Bborie K.; Carpenter, Tim E.; Ngo, Van; Civen, Rachel

2012-01-01

In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case–crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources. PMID:22840314

A prescription fraud detection model.

PubMed

Aral, Karca Duru; Güvenir, Halil Altay; Sabuncuoğlu, Ihsan; Akar, Ahmet Ruchan

2012-04-01

Prescription fraud is a main problem that causes substantial monetary loss in health care systems. We aimed to develop a model for detecting cases of prescription fraud and test it on real world data from a large multi-center medical prescription database. Conventionally, prescription fraud detection is conducted on random samples by human experts. However, the samples might be misleading and manual detection is costly. We propose a novel distance based on data-mining approach for assessing the fraudulent risk of prescriptions regarding cross-features. Final tests have been conducted on adult cardiac surgery database. The results obtained from experiments reveal that the proposed model works considerably well with a true positive rate of 77.4% and a false positive rate of 6% for the fraudulent medical prescriptions. The proposed model has the potential advantages including on-line risk prediction for prescription fraud, off-line analysis of high-risk prescriptions by human experts, and self-learning ability by regular updates of the integrative data sets. We conclude that incorporating such a system in health authorities, social security agencies and insurance companies would improve efficiency of internal review to ensure compliance with the law, and radically decrease human-expert auditing costs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Bioconcentration of gaseous organic chemicals in plant leaves: Comparison of experimental data with model predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polder, M.D.; Hulzebos, E.M.; Jager, D.T.

1998-01-01

This literature study is performed to support the implementation of two models in a risk assessment system for the evaluation of chemicals and their risk for human health and the environment. One of the exposure pathways for humans and cattle is the uptake of chemicals by plants. In this risk assessment system the transfer of gaseous organic substances from air to plants modeled by Riederer is included. A similar model with a more refined approach, including dilution by growth, is proposed by Trapp and Matthies, which was implemented in the European version of this risk assessment system (EUSES). In thismore » study both models are evaluated by comparison with experimental data on leaf/air partition coefficients found in the literature. For herbaceous plants both models give good estimations for the leaf/air partition coefficient up to 10{sup 7}, with deviations for most substances within a factor of five. For the azalea and spruce group the fit between experimental BCF values and the calculated model values is less adequate. For substances for which Riederer estimates a leaf/air partition coefficient above 10{sup 7}, the approach of Trapp and Matthies seems more adequate; however, few data were available.« less

2015 Occupant Protection Standing Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan

2015-01-01

The 2015 Occupant Protection (OP) Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) participated in a WebEx/teleconference with members of the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) Element, representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP), NASA Headquarters, and NASA Research and Education Support Services on November 3, 2015 (list of participants is in Section VII of this report). The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Injury from Dynamic Loads (OP Risk). The SRP agrees that the Gaps are relevant and appropriate to mitigate the injury risk. All the appropriate and relevant Tasks have been identified to fill the Gaps. Depending upon the findings, additional tasks may need to be identified or modified. Excellent progress has been made since the 2014 SRP meeting. Publications in peer-reviewed journals validate the scientific merit of the research findings. As detailed in this report, the SRP has specific comments, guidance, and information in the following areas: human finite element modeling, human vs. surrogate dynamic responses, chest injury risk curves, matched pair testing of Test device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) and Hybrid III, and disc herniation risk analysis.

The effect of low dose ionizing radiation on homeostasis and functional integrity in an organotypic human skin model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Neubeck, Claere; Geniza, Matthew; Kauer, Paula M.

Outside the protection of earth’s atmosphere, astronauts are exposed to low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Future NASA plans for deep space missions or a permanent settlement on the moon are limited by the health risks associated with space radiation exposures. There is a paucity of direct epidemiological data for low dose exposures to space radiation-relevant high LET ions. Health risk models are used to estimate the risk for such exposures, though these models are based on high dose experiments. There is increasing evidence, however, that low and high dose exposures result in different signaling events atmore » the molecular level, and may involve different response mechanisms. Further, despite their low abundance, high LET particles have been identified as the major contributor to health risk during manned space flight. The human skin is exposed in every external radiation scenario, making it an ideal epithelial tissue model in which to study radiation induced effects. Here, we exposed an in vitro three dimensional (3-D) human organotypic skin tissue model to low doses of high LET oxygen (O), silicon (Si) and iron (Fe) ions. We measured proliferation and differentiation profiles in the skin tissue and examined the integrity of the skin’s barrier function. We discuss the role of secondary particles in changing the proportion of cells receiving a radiation dose, emphasizing the possible impact on radiation-induced health issues in astronauts.« less

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Vogels, Chantal B F; Hartemink, Nienke; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M

2017-07-10

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R 0 ) models. However, existing R 0 models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R 0 model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R 0 values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R 0 . Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R 0 shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.

Map making in the 21st century: charting breast cancer susceptibility pathways in rodent models.

PubMed

Blackburn, Anneke C; Jerry, D Joseph

2011-04-01

Genetic factors play an important role in determining risk and resistance to increased breast cancer. Recent technological advances have made it possible to analyze hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms in large-scale association studies in humans and have resulted in identification of alleles in over 20 genes that influence breast cancer risk. Despite these advances, the challenge remains in identifying what the functional polymorphisms are that confer the increased risk, and how these genetic variants interact with each other and with environmental factors. In rodents, the incidence of mammary tumors varies among strains, such that they can provide alternate ideas for candidate pathways involved in humans. Mapping studies in animals have unearthed numerous loci for breast cancer susceptibility that have been validated in human populations. In a reciprocal manner, knockin and knockout mice have been used to validate the tumorigenicity of risk alleles found in population studies. Rodent studies also underscore the complexity of interactions among alleles. The fact that genes affecting risk and resistance to mammary tumors in rodents depend greatly upon the carcinogenic challenge emphasizes the importance of gene x environment interactions. The challenge to rodent geneticists now is to capitalize on the ability to control the genetics and environment in rodent models of tumorigenesis to better understand the biology of breast cancer development, to identify those polymorphisms most relevant to human susceptibility and to identify compensatory pathways that can be targeted for improved prevention in women at highest risk of developing breast cancer.

Toxicokinetics/toxicodynamics of arsenic for farmed juvenile milkfish Chanos chanos and human consumption risk in BFD-endemic area of Taiwan.

PubMed

Chou, Berry Yun-Hua; Liao, Chung-Min; Lin, Ming-Chao; Cheng, Hsu-Hui

2006-05-01

This paper presents a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic analysis to appraise arsenic (As) bioaccumulation in farmed juvenile milkfish Chanos chanos at blackfoot disease (BFD)-endemic area in Taiwan, whereas probabilistic incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) and hazard quotient (HQ) models are also employed to assess the range of exposures for the fishers and non-fishers who eat the contaminated fish. We conducted a 7-day exposure experiment to obtain toxicokinetic parameters, whereas a simple critical body burden toxicity model was verified with LC50(t) data obtained from a 7-day acute toxicity bioassay. Acute toxicity bioassay indicates that 96-h LC50 for juvenile milkfish exposed to As is 7.29 (95% CI: 3.10-10.47) mg l(-1). Our risk analysis for milkfish reared in BFD-endemic area indicates a low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne As. Human risk analysis demonstrates that 90%-tile probability exposure ILCRs for fishers in BFD-endemic area have orders of magnitude of 10(-3), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk, whereas there is no significant cancer risk for non-fishers (ILCRs around 10(-5)). All predicted 90%-tiles of HQ are less than 1 for non-fishers, yet larger than 10 for fishers which indicate larger contributions from farmed milkfish consumptions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that to increase the accuracy of the results, efforts should focus on a better definition of probability distributions for milkfish daily consumption rate and As level in milkfish. Here we show that theoretical human health risks for consuming As-contaminated milkfish in the BFD-endemic area are alarming under a conservative condition based on a probabilistic risk assessment model.

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

Conditional Toxicity Value (CTV) Predictor: An In Silico Approach for Generating Quantitative Risk Estimates for Chemicals.

PubMed

Wignall, Jessica A; Muratov, Eugene; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Tropsha, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A

2018-05-01

Human health assessments synthesize human, animal, and mechanistic data to produce toxicity values that are key inputs to risk-based decision making. Traditional assessments are data-, time-, and resource-intensive, and they cannot be developed for most environmental chemicals owing to a lack of appropriate data. As recommended by the National Research Council, we propose a solution for predicting toxicity values for data-poor chemicals through development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. We used a comprehensive database of chemicals with existing regulatory toxicity values from U.S. federal and state agencies to develop quantitative QSAR models. We compared QSAR-based model predictions to those based on high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. QSAR models for noncancer threshold-based values and cancer slope factors had cross-validation-based Q 2 of 0.25-0.45, mean model errors of 0.70-1.11 log 10 units, and applicability domains covering >80% of environmental chemicals. Toxicity values predicted from QSAR models developed in this study were more accurate and precise than those based on HTS assays or mean-based predictions. A publicly accessible web interface to make predictions for any chemical of interest is available at http://toxvalue.org. An in silico tool that can predict toxicity values with an uncertainty of an order of magnitude or less can be used to quickly and quantitatively assess risks of environmental chemicals when traditional toxicity data or human health assessments are unavailable. This tool can fill a critical gap in the risk assessment and management of data-poor chemicals. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2998.

Lifecourse Models for Ensuring Children's Health Protection

EPA Science Inventory

New knowledge about environmental risks to human reproduction and development directly relevant to children’s health protection derives from the fields of developmental and reproductive toxicology, exposure science, epidemiology, risk assessment, and public health. Together, thi...

Risk Assessment Methodology for Hazardous Waste Management (1998)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A methodology is described for systematically assessing and comparing the risks to human health and the environment of hazardous waste management alternatives. The methodology selects and links appropriate models and techniques for performing the process.

Radiation Quality Effects on Transcriptome Profiles in 3-D Cultures After Charged Particle Irradiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Zarana S.; Kidane, Yared H.; Huff, Janice L.

2014-01-01

In this work, we evaluated the differential effects of low- and high-LET radiation on 3-D organotypic cultures in order to investigate radiation quality impacts on gene expression and cellular responses. Current risk models for assessment of space radiation-induced cancer have large uncertainties because the models for adverse health effects following radiation exposure are founded on epidemiological analyses of human populations exposed to low-LET radiation. Reducing these uncertainties requires new knowledge on the fundamental differences in biological responses (the so-called radiation quality effects) triggered by heavy ion particle radiation versus low-LET radiation associated with Earth-based exposures. In order to better quantify these radiation quality effects in biological systems, we are utilizing novel 3-D organotypic human tissue models for space radiation research. These models hold promise for risk assessment as they provide a format for study of human cells within a realistic tissue framework, thereby bridging the gap between 2-D monolayer culture and animal models for risk extrapolation to humans. To identify biological pathway signatures unique to heavy ion particle exposure, functional gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used with whole transcriptome profiling. GSEA has been used extensively as a method to garner biological information in a variety of model systems but has not been commonly used to analyze radiation effects. It is a powerful approach for assessing the functional significance of radiation quality-dependent changes from datasets where the changes are subtle but broad, and where single gene based analysis using rankings of fold-change may not reveal important biological information.

Assessing dengue infection risk in the southern region of Taiwan: implications for control.

PubMed

Liao, C-M; Huang, T-L; Cheng, Y-H; Chen, W-Y; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, S-C; Chio, C-P

2015-04-01

Dengue, one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, is a major international public health concern. This study aimed to assess potential dengue infection risk from Aedes aegypti in Kaohsiung and the implications for vector control. Here we investigated the impact of dengue transmission on human infection risk using a well-established dengue-mosquito-human transmission dynamics model. A basic reproduction number (R 0)-based probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate dengue infection risk. Our findings confirm that the effect of biting rate plays a crucial role in shaping R 0 estimates. We demonstrated that there was 50% risk probability for increased dengue incidence rates exceeding 0.5-0.8 wk-1 for temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C. We further demonstrated that the weekly increased dengue incidence rate can be decreased to zero if vector control efficiencies reach 30-80% at temperatures of 19-32°C. We conclude that our analysis on dengue infection risk and control implications in Kaohsiung provide crucial information for policy-making on disease control.

Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

PubMed

Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

2018-02-01

Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate change. This study provides useful information to decision makers responsible for allocating resources to address disease risks. This approach provided a rapid, cost-effective method of risk assessment of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens for which the published literature is sparse. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Transmission Risks of Schistosomiasis Japonica: Extraction from Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Jun-Fang; Xu, Jing; Li, Shi-Zhu; Jia, Tia-Wu; Huang, Xi-Bao; Zhang, Hua-Ming; Chen, Mei; Yang, Guo-Jing; Gao, Shu-Jing; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2013-01-01

Background The transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in a local setting is still poorly understood in the lake regions of the People's Republic of China (P. R. China), and its transmission patterns are closely related to human, social and economic factors. Methodology/Principal Findings We aimed to apply the integrated approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression model in assessment of transmission risks of Schistosoma japonicum with epidemiological data collected from 2339 villagers from 1247 households in six villages of Jiangling County, P.R. China. By using the back-propagation (BP) of the ANN model, 16 factors out of 27 factors were screened, and the top five factors ranked by the absolute value of mean impact value (MIV) were mainly related to human behavior, i.e. integration of water contact history and infection history, family with past infection, history of water contact, infection history, and infection times. The top five factors screened by the logistic regression model were mainly related to the social economics, i.e. village level, economic conditions of family, age group, education level, and infection times. The risk of human infection with S. japonicum is higher in the population who are at age 15 or younger, or with lower education, or with the higher infection rate of the village, or with poor family, and in the population with more than one time to be infected. Conclusion/Significance Both BP artificial neural network and logistic regression model established in a small scale suggested that individual behavior and socioeconomic status are the most important risk factors in the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica. It was reviewed that the young population (≤15) in higher-risk areas was the main target to be intervened for the disease transmission control. PMID:23556015

Flood risk (d)evolution: Disentangling key drivers of flood risk change with a retro-model experiment.

PubMed

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Hofer, Patrick; Mosimann, Markus; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Ramirez, Jorge A; Keiler, Margreth; Weingartner, Rolf

2018-05-19

Flood risks are dynamically changing over time. Over decades and centuries, the main drivers for flood risk change are influenced either by perturbations or slow alterations in the natural environment or, more importantly, by socio-economic development and human interventions. However, changes in the natural and human environment are intertwined. Thus, the analysis of the main drivers for flood risk changes requires a disentangling of the individual risk components. Here, we present a method for isolating the individual effects of selected drivers of change and selected flood risk management options based on a model experiment. In contrast to purely synthetic model experiments, we built our analyses upon a retro-model consisting of several spatio-temporal stages of river morphology and settlement structure. The main advantage of this approach is that the overall long-term dynamics are known and do not have to be assumed. We used this model setup to analyse the temporal evolution of the flood risk, for an ex-post evaluation of the key drivers of change, and for analysing possible alternative pathways for flood risk evolution under different governance settings. We showed that in the study region the construction of lateral levees and the consecutive river incision are the main drivers for decreasing flood risks over the last century. A rebound effect in flood risk can be observed following an increase in settlements since the 1960s. This effect is not as relevant as the river engineering measures, but it will become increasingly relevant in the future with continued socio-economic growth. The presented approach could provide a methodological framework for studying pathways for future flood risk evolvement and for the formulation of narratives for adapting governmental flood risk strategies to the spatio-temporal dynamics in the built environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SIMULATION MODELING OF GASTROINTESTINAL ABSORPTION

EPA Science Inventory

Mathematical dosimetry models incorporate mechanistic determinants of chemical disposition in a living organism to describe relationships between exposure concentration and the internal dose needed for PBPK models and human health risk assessment. Because they rely on determini...

76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-09

... assessments of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as they pertain to human and environmental health risk assessment. Multimedia model development and simulation supports...

Rift Valley fever risk map model and seroprevalence in selected wild ungulates and camels from Kenya

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based...

UNCERTAINTIES IN TRICHLOROETHYLENE PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the pharmacokinetics of a chemical¯its absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion in humans and laboratory animals ¯ is critical to the assessment of its human health risks. For trichloroethylene (TCE), numerous physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK)...

Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

PubMed

Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

2015-07-01

Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping strategies against unpredictable environmental disturbance, the risk of population extinction can be exacerbated. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk of Human Papillomavirus Infection in Cancer-Prone Individuals: What We Know

PubMed Central

Khoury, Ruby; Sauter, Sharon; Butsch Kovacic, Melinda; Nelson, Adam S.; Myers, Kasiani C.; Mehta, Parinda A.; Davies, Stella M.; Wells, Susanne I.

2018-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections cause a significant proportion of cancers worldwide, predominantly squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of the mucosas and skin. High-risk HPV types are associated with SCCs of the anogenital and oropharyngeal tract. HPV oncogene activities and the biology of SCCs have been intensely studied in laboratory models and humans. What remains largely unknown are host tissue and immune-related factors that determine an individual’s susceptibility to infection and/or carcinogenesis. Such susceptibility factors could serve to identify those at greatest risk and spark individually tailored HPV and SCC prevention efforts. Fanconi anemia (FA) is an inherited DNA repair disorder that is in part characterized by extreme susceptibility to SCCs. An increased prevalence of HPV has been reported in affected individuals, and molecular and functional connections between FA, SCC, and HPV were established in laboratory models. However, the presence of HPV in some human FA tumors is controversial, and the extent of the etiological connections remains to be established. Herein, we discuss cellular, immunological, and phenotypic features of FA, placed into the context of HPV pathogenesis. The goal is to highlight this orphan disease as a unique model system to uncover host genetic and molecular HPV features, as well as SCC susceptibility factors. PMID:29361695

Application of chimeric mice with humanized liver for study of human-specific drug metabolism.

PubMed

Bateman, Thomas J; Reddy, Vijay G B; Kakuni, Masakazu; Morikawa, Yoshio; Kumar, Sanjeev

2014-06-01

Human-specific or disproportionately abundant human metabolites of drug candidates that are not adequately formed and qualified in preclinical safety assessment species pose an important drug development challenge. Furthermore, the overall metabolic profile of drug candidates in humans is an important determinant of their drug-drug interaction susceptibility. These risks can be effectively assessed and/or mitigated if human metabolic profile of the drug candidate could reliably be determined in early development. However, currently available in vitro human models (e.g., liver microsomes, hepatocytes) are often inadequate in this regard. Furthermore, the conduct of definitive radiolabeled human ADME studies is an expensive and time-consuming endeavor that is more suited for later in development when the risk of failure has been reduced. We evaluated a recently developed chimeric mouse model with humanized liver on uPA/SCID background for its ability to predict human disposition of four model drugs (lamotrigine, diclofenac, MRK-A, and propafenone) that are known to exhibit human-specific metabolism. The results from these studies demonstrate that chimeric mice were able to reproduce the human-specific metabolite profile for lamotrigine, diclofenac, and MRK-A. In the case of propafenone, however, the human-specific metabolism was not detected as a predominant pathway, and the metabolite profiles in native and humanized mice were similar; this was attributed to the presence of residual highly active propafenone-metabolizing mouse enzymes in chimeric mice. Overall, the data indicate that the chimeric mice with humanized liver have the potential to be a useful tool for the prediction of human-specific metabolism of xenobiotics and warrant further investigation.

Influence of human behavior on cholera dynamics

PubMed Central

Wang, Xueying; Gao, Daozhou; Wang, Jin

2015-01-01

This paper is devoted to studying the impact of human behavior on cholera infection. We start with a cholera ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that incorporates human behavior via modeling disease prevalence dependent contact rates for direct and indirect transmissions and infectious host shedding. Local and global dynamics of the model are analyzed with respect to the basic reproduction number. We then extend the ODE model to a reaction-convection-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) model that accounts for the movement of both human hosts and bacteria. Particularly, we investigate the cholera spreading speed by analyzing the traveling wave solutions of the PDE model, and disease threshold dynamics by numerically evaluating the basic reproduction number of the PDE model. Our results show that human behavior can reduce (a) the endemic and epidemic levels, (b) cholera spreading speeds and (c) the risk of infection (characterized by the basic reproduction number). PMID:26119824

DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans

PubMed Central

Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

2016-01-01

It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14155.001 PMID:27249418

Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger

2014-01-01

The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

Quasi-likelihood generalized linear regression analysis of fatality risk data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Transportation-related fatality risks is a function of many interacting human, vehicle, and environmental factors. Statisitcally valid analysis of such data is challenged both by the complexity of plausable structural models relating fatality rates t...

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

High volume hydraulic fracturing operations: potential impacts on surface water and human health.

PubMed

Mrdjen, Igor; Lee, Jiyoung

2016-08-01

High volume, hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) processes, used to extract natural gas and oil from underground shale deposits, pose many potential hazards to the environment and human health. HVHF can negatively affect the environment by contaminating soil, water, and air matrices with potential pollutants. Due to the relatively novel nature of the process, hazards to surface waters and human health are not well known. The purpose of this article is to link the impacts of HVHF operations on surface water integrity, with human health consequences. Surface water contamination risks include: increased structural failure rates of unconventional wells, issues with wastewater treatment, and accidental discharge of contaminated fluids. Human health risks associated with exposure to surface water contaminated with HVHF chemicals include increased cancer risk and turbidity of water, leading to increased pathogen survival time. Future research should focus on modeling contamination spread throughout the environment, and minimizing occupational exposure to harmful chemicals.

Human cognition and mobility in aging: a model for berry fruit interventions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in motor function in aging, in both animals and humans, include decrements in balance, strength, and coordination, even in the absence of specific movement disorders such as Parkinson’s disease. In humans, these alterations can increase fall risk, often leading to injury and premature nursin...

Risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals at large spatial scales: Model development and application to contaminants originating from urban areas in the Saint Lawrence River Basin.

PubMed

Grill, Günther; Khan, Usman; Lehner, Bernhard; Nicell, Jim; Ariwi, Joseph

2016-01-15

Chemicals released into freshwater systems threaten ecological functioning and may put aquatic life and the health of humans at risk. We developed a new contaminant fate model (CFM) that follows simple, well-established methodologies and is unique in its cross-border, seamless hydrological and geospatial framework, including lake routing, a critical component in northern environments. We validated the model using the pharmaceutical Carbamazepine and predicted eco-toxicological risk for 15 pharmaceuticals in the Saint-Lawrence River Basin, Canada. The results indicated negligible to low environmental risk for the majority of tested chemicals, while two pharmaceuticals showed elevated risk in up to 13% of rivers affected by municipal effluents. As an integrated model, our CFM is designed for application at very large scales with the primary goal of detecting high risk zones. In regulatory frameworks, it can help screen existing or new chemicals entering the market regarding their potential impact on human and environmental health. Due to its high geospatial resolution, our CFM can also facilitate the prioritization of actions, such as identifying regions where reducing contamination sources or upgrading treatment plants is most pertinent to achieve targeted pollutant removal or to protect drinking water resources. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Humanized mouse lines and their application for prediction of human drug metabolism and toxicological risk assessment

PubMed Central

Cheung, Connie; Gonzalez, Frank J

2008-01-01

Cytochrome P450s (P450s) are important enzymes involved in the metabolism of xenobiotics, particularly clinically used drugs, and are also responsible for metabolic activation of chemical carcinogens and toxins. Many xenobiotics can activate nuclear receptors that in turn induce the expression of genes encoding xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes and drug transporters. Marked species differences in the expression and regulation of cytochromes P450 and xenobiotic nuclear receptors exist. Thus obtaining reliable rodent models to accurately reflect human drug and carcinogen metabolism is severely limited. Humanized transgenic mice were developed in an effort to create more reliable in vivo systems to study and predict human responses to xenobiotics. Human P450s or human xenobiotic-activated nuclear receptors were introduced directly or replaced the corresponding mouse gene, thus creating “humanized” transgenic mice. Mice expressing human CYP1A1/CYP1A2, CYP2E1, CYP2D6, CYP3A4, CY3A7, PXR, PPARα were generated and characterized. These humanized mouse models offers a broad utility in the evaluation and prediction of toxicological risk that may aid in the development of safer drugs. PMID:18682571

MODELING DEPOSITION OF INHALED PARTICLES

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling Deposition of Inhaled Particles: ABSTRACT

The mathematical modeling of the deposition and distribution of inhaled aerosols within human lungs is an invaluable tool in predicting both the health risks associated with inhaled environmental aerosols and the therapeut...

Human social neuroendocrinology: Review of the rapid effects of testosterone.

PubMed

Geniole, Shawn N; Carré, Justin M

2018-06-06

It is well documented that testosterone concentrations change rapidly within reproductively relevant contexts (e.g., competition, mate-seeking). It has been argued that such rapid changes in testosterone may serve to adaptively fine-tune ongoing and/or future social behaviour according to one's social environment. In this paper, we review human correlational and experimental evidence suggesting that testosterone fluctuates rapidly in response to competition and mate-seeking cues, and that such acute changes may serve to modulate ongoing and/or future social behaviours (e.g., risk-taking, competitiveness, mate-seeking, and aggression). Some methodological details, which limit interpretation of some of this human work, are also discussed. We conclude with a new integrative model of testosterone secretion and behaviour, the Fitness Model of Testosterone Dynamics. Although we focus primarily on human aggression in this review, but we also highlight research on risk-taking, competitiveness, and mate-seeking behaviour. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Attribution of human infections with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) to livestock sources and identification of source-specific risk factors, The Netherlands (2010-2014).

PubMed

Mughini-Gras, L; van Pelt, W; van der Voort, M; Heck, M; Friesema, I; Franz, E

2018-02-01

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is a zoonotic pathogen of public health concern whose sources and transmission routes are difficult to trace. Using a combined source attribution and case-control analysis, we determined the relative contributions of four putative livestock sources (cattle, small ruminants, pigs, poultry) to human STEC infections and their associated dietary, animal contact, temporal and socio-econo-demographic risk factors in the Netherlands in 2010/2011-2014. Dutch source data were supplemented with those from other European countries with similar STEC epidemiology. Human STEC infections were attributed to sources using both the modified Dutch model (mDM) and the modified Hald model (mHM) supplied with the same O-serotyping data. Cattle accounted for 48.6% (mDM) and 53.1% (mHM) of the 1,183 human cases attributed, followed by small ruminants (mDM: 23.5%; mHM: 25.4%), pigs (mDM: 12.5%; mHM: 5.7%) and poultry (mDM: 2.7%; mHM: 3.1%), whereas the sources of the remaining 12.8% of cases could not be attributed. Of the top five O-serotypes infecting humans, O157, O26, O91 and O103 were mainly attributed to cattle (61%-75%) and O146 to small ruminants (71%-77%). Significant risk factors for human STEC infection as a whole were the consumption of beef, raw/undercooked meat or cured meat/cold cuts. For cattle-attributed STEC infections, specific risk factors were consuming raw meat spreads and beef. Consuming raw/undercooked or minced meat were risk factors for STEC infections attributed to small ruminants. For STEC infections attributed to pigs, only consuming raw/undercooked meat was significant. Consuming minced meat, raw/undercooked meat or cured meat/cold cuts were associated with poultry-attributed STEC infections. Consuming raw vegetables was protective for all STEC infections. We concluded that domestic ruminants account for approximately three-quarters of reported human STEC infections, whereas pigs and poultry play a minor role and that risk factors for human STEC infection vary according to the attributed source. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Index analysis and human health risk model application for evaluating ambient air-heavy metal contamination in Chemical Valley Sarnia.

PubMed

Olawoyin, Richard; Schweitzer, Linda; Zhang, Kuangyuan; Okareh, Oladapo; Slates, Kevin

2018-02-01

The impacts of air emissions as a consequence of industrial activities around communities of human habitation have been extensively reported. This study is the first to assess potential adverse human health effects in the Chemical Valley Sarnia (CVS) area, around the St. Clair River, using health risk models, ecological and pollution indices. Large quantities of particulate matters (PM) are generated from anthropogenic activities, which contain several heavy metals in trace quantities with potentially adverse effects to humans and environmental health. The distribution, and human health impact assessment of trace element concentrations in PM fractions were examined. Elemental concentrations of As, Cd, Cr (VI), Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, Ni, Zn were determined in the PM size-segregated samples collected from the CVS area between 2014 and 2017. The results showed relatively high concentration of PM <2.5 (87.19±8.1(mgm 3 )) which is approximately 4 times the WHO air quality guidelines. Pb concentration (143.03 ± 46.87ηg/m 3 ) was 3.6 times higher than the air quality standards of NAAQS. Cr (VI) showed moderate to considerable contamination ( C f =4) in the CVS while Cr (VI), Pb, and Ni had enrichment factor E f < 3 (minimal), signifying contributions from anthropogenic activities. Pollution load index (P Li ) value observed was 1.4 indicating human health risk from the PM, especially for the children in the area. The deposition fluxes (DΦ) showed that PM-bound metals could potentially bypass the head airways and cause damages to the tracheobronchial tree, increasing the human health risks of nephroblastomasis development. The main route of entry for the heavy metal bound PM in humans were observed as through ingestion and inhalation. The highest total excess cancer risks observed for children (6.7×10 -4 ) and adult (1.0×10 -4 ) indicating potential cancer effects. The Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) increased from Pb < Ni < Cd < Cr (VI) < As. Overall, children are more likely to develop carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects from exposures to elemental concentrations of airborne PM in the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contextual Factors Explain Risk-Seeking Preferences in Rhesus Monkeys

PubMed Central

Heilbronner, Sarah R.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2012-01-01

In contrast to humans and most other animals, rhesus macaques strongly prefer risky rewards to safe ones with similar expected value. Why macaques prefer risk while other animals typically avoid it remains puzzling and challenges the idea that monkeys provide a model for human economic behavior. Here we argue that monkeys’ risk-seeking preferences are neither mysterious nor unique. Risk-seeking in macaques is possibly induced by specific elements of the tasks that have been used to measure their risk preferences. The most important of these elements are (1) very small stakes, (2) serially repeated gambles with short delays between trials, and (3) task parameters that are learned through experience, not described verbally. Together, we hypothesize that these features will readily induce risk-seeking in monkeys, humans, and rats. Thus, elements of task design that are often ignored when comparing studies of risk attitudes can easily overwhelm basal risk preferences. More broadly, these results highlight the fundamental importance of understanding the psychological basis of economic decisions in interpreting preference data and corresponding neural measures. PMID:23378827

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caudell, Thomas P.; Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O.

Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reducemore » such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.« less

Nuclear Radiation Fields on the Mars Surface: Risk Analysis for Long-term Living Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Brooke M.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Qualls, Garry D.; Nealy, John E.

2005-01-01

Mars, our nearest planet outward from the sun, has been targeted for several decades as a prospective site for expanded human habitation. Background space radiation exposures on Mars are expected to be orders of magnitude higher than on Earth. Recent risk analysis procedures based on detailed dosimetric techniques applicable to sensitive human organs have been developed along with experimental data regarding cell mutation rates resulting from exposures to a broad range of particle types and energy spectra. In this context, simulated exposure and subsequent risk for humans in residence on Mars are examined. A conceptual habitat structure, CAD-modeled with duly considered inherent shielding properties, has been implemented. Body self-shielding is evaluated using NASA standard computerized male and female models. The background environment is taken to consist not only of exposure from incident cosmic ray ions and their secondaries, but also include the contribution from secondary neutron fields produced in the tenuous atmosphere and the underlying regolith.

Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Risk Areas, California, USA

PubMed Central

Ahearn, Sean C.; McConchie, Alan; Glaser, Carol; Jean, Cynthia; Barker, Chris; Park, Bborie; Padgett, Kerry; Parker, Erin; Aquino, Ervic; Kramer, Vicki

2011-01-01

The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km2 in California. Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and κ analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39× higher than for low-risk cells. Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic. PMID:21801622

Landscape-Level Spatial Patterns of West Nile Virus Risk in the Northern Great Plains

PubMed Central

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Hockett, Christine W.; Kightlinger, Lon; Wimberly, Michael C.

2012-01-01

Understanding the landscape-level determinants of West Nile virus (WNV) can aid in mapping high-risk areas and enhance disease control and prevention efforts. This study analyzed the spatial patterns of human WNV cases in three areas in South Dakota during 2003–2007 and investigated the influences of land cover, hydrology, soils, irrigation, and elevation by using case–control models. Land cover, hydrology, soils, and elevation all influenced WNV risk, although the main drivers were different in each study area. Risk for WNV was generally higher in areas with rural land cover than in developed areas, and higher close to wetlands or soils with a high ponding frequency. In western South Dakota, WNV risk also decreased with increasing elevation and was higher in forested areas. Our results showed that the spatial patterns of human WNV risk were associated with landscape-level features that likely reflect variability in mosquito ecology, avian host communities, and human activity. PMID:22492161

Applications and Limitations of Mouse Models for Understanding Human Atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

von Scheidt, Moritz; Zhao, Yuqi; Kurt, Zeyneb; Pan, Calvin; Zeng, Lingyao; Yang, Xia; Schunkert, Heribert; Lusis, Aldons J.

2017-01-01

Most of the biological understanding of mechanisms underlying coronary artery disease (CAD) derives from studies of mouse models. The identification of multiple CAD loci and strong candidate genes in large human genome-wide association studies (GWAS) presented an opportunity to examine the relevance of mouse models for the human disease. We comprehensively reviewed the mouse literature, including 827 literature-derived genes, and compared it to human data. First, we observed striking concordance of risk factors for atherosclerosis in mice and humans. Second, there was highly significant overlap of mouse genes with human genes identified by GWAS. In particular, of the 46 genes with strong association signals in CAD-GWAS that were studied in mouse models all but one exhibited consistent effects on atherosclerosis-related phenotypes. Third, we compared 178 CAD-associated pathways derived from human GWAS with 263 from mouse studies and observed that over 50% were consistent between both species. PMID:27916529

Computational Modeling of Space Physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth E.; Griffin, Devon W.

2016-01-01

The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within NASAs Human Research Program, develops and implements computational modeling for use in the mitigation of human health and performance risks associated with long duration spaceflight. Over the past decade, DAP developed models to provide insights into space flight related changes to the central nervous system, cardiovascular system and the musculoskeletal system. Examples of the models and their applications include biomechanical models applied to advanced exercise device development, bone fracture risk quantification for mission planning, accident investigation, bone health standards development, and occupant protection. The International Space Station (ISS), in its role as a testing ground for long duration spaceflight, has been an important platform for obtaining human spaceflight data. DAP has used preflight, in-flight and post-flight data from short and long duration astronauts for computational model development and validation. Examples include preflight and post-flight bone mineral density data, muscle cross-sectional area, and muscle strength measurements. Results from computational modeling supplement space physiology research by informing experimental design. Using these computational models, DAP personnel can easily identify both important factors associated with a phenomenon and areas where data are lacking. This presentation will provide examples of DAP computational models, the data used in model development and validation, and applications of the model.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures.

PubMed

Emond, Claude; Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz

2017-01-15

Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable elimination half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Astronaut Risk Levels During Crew Module (CM) Land Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Charles; Carney, Kelly S.; Littell, Justin

2007-01-01

The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) is investigating the merits of water and land landings for the crew exploration vehicle (CEV). The merits of these two options are being studied in terms of cost and risk to the astronauts, vehicle, support personnel, and general public. The objective of the present work is to determine the astronaut dynamic response index (DRI), which measures injury risks. Risks are determined for a range of vertical and horizontal landing velocities. A structural model of the crew module (CM) is developed and computational simulations are performed using a transient dynamic simulation analysis code (LS-DYNA) to determine acceleration profiles. Landing acceleration profiles are input in a human factors model that determines astronaut risk levels. Details of the modeling approach, the resulting accelerations, and astronaut risk levels are provided.

EPA's Benchmark Dose Modeling Software

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA developed the Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS) as a tool to help Agency risk assessors facilitate applying benchmark dose (BMD) method’s to EPA’s human health risk assessment (HHRA) documents. The application of BMD methods overcomes many well know limitations ...

COMPUTATIONAL TOXICOLOGY: AN APPROACH FOR PRIORITIZING CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Characterizing toxic effects for industrial chemicals carries the challenge of focusing resources on the greatest potential risks for human health and the environment. The union of molecular modeling, bioinformatics and simulation of complex systems with emerging technologies suc...

Identifying and Prioritizing Greater Sage-Grouse Nesting and Brood-Rearing Habitat for Conservation in Human-Modified Landscapes

PubMed Central

Dzialak, Matthew R.; Olson, Chad V.; Harju, Seth M.; Webb, Stephen L.; Mudd, James P.; Winstead, Jeffrey B.; Hayden-Wing, L.D.

2011-01-01

Background Balancing animal conservation and human use of the landscape is an ongoing scientific and practical challenge throughout the world. We investigated reproductive success in female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to seasonal patterns of resource selection, with the larger goal of developing a spatially-explicit framework for managing human activity and sage-grouse conservation at the landscape level. Methodology/Principal Findings We integrated field-observation, Global Positioning Systems telemetry, and statistical modeling to quantify the spatial pattern of occurrence and risk during nesting and brood-rearing. We linked occurrence and risk models to provide spatially-explicit indices of habitat-performance relationships. As part of the analysis, we offer novel biological information on resource selection during egg-laying, incubation, and night. The spatial pattern of occurrence during all reproductive phases was driven largely by selection or avoidance of terrain features and vegetation, with little variation explained by anthropogenic features. Specifically, sage-grouse consistently avoided rough terrain, selected for moderate shrub cover at the patch level (within 90 m2), and selected for mesic habitat in mid and late brood-rearing phases. In contrast, risk of nest and brood failure was structured by proximity to anthropogenic features including natural gas wells and human-created mesic areas, as well as vegetation features such as shrub cover. Conclusions/Significance Risk in this and perhaps other human-modified landscapes is a top-down (i.e., human-mediated) process that would most effectively be minimized by developing a better understanding of specific mechanisms (e.g., predator subsidization) driving observed patterns, and using habitat-performance indices such as those developed herein for spatially-explicit guidance of conservation intervention. Working under the hypothesis that industrial activity structures risk by enhancing predator abundance or effectiveness, we offer specific recommendations for maintaining high-performance habitat and reducing low-performance habitat, particularly relative to the nesting phase, by managing key high-risk anthropogenic features such as industrial infrastructure and water developments. PMID:22022587

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

Risk Distribution of Human Infections with Avian Influenza H7N9 and H5N1 virus in China

PubMed Central

Li, Xin-Lou; Yang, Yang; Sun, Ye; Chen, Wan-Jun; Sun, Ruo-Xi; Liu, Kun; Ma, Mai-Juan; Liang, Song; Yao, Hong-Wu; Gray, Gregory C.; Fang, Li-Qun; Cao, Wu-Chun

2015-01-01

It has been documented that the epidemiological characteristics of human infections with H7N9 differ significantly between H5N1. However, potential factors that may explain the different spatial distributions remain unexplored. We use boosted regression tree (BRT) models to explore the association of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological variables with the occurrence of human cases of H7N9 and H5N1, and map the probabilities of occurrence of human cases. Live poultry markets, density of human, coverage of built-up land, relative humidity and precipitation were significant predictors for both. In addition, density of poultry, coverage of shrub and temperature played important roles for human H7N9 infection, whereas human H5N1 infection was associated with coverage of forest and water body. Based on the risks and distribution of ecological characteristics which may facilitate the circulation of the two viruses, we found Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, along with a few spots on the southeast coastline, to be the high risk areas for H7N9 and H5N1. Additional, H5N1 risk spots were identified in eastern Sichuan and southern Yunnan Provinces. Surveillance of the two viruses needs to be enhanced in these high risk areas to reduce the risk of future epidemics of avian influenza in China. PMID:26691585

Trades Between Opposition and Conjunction Class Trajectories for Early Human Missions to Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattfeld, Bryan; Stromgren, Chel; Shyface, Hilary; Komar, David R.; Cirillo, William; Goodliff, Kandyce

2014-01-01

Candidate human missions to Mars, including NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on conjunction-class missions with long crewed durations and minimum energy trajectories to reduce total propellant requirements and total launch mass. However, in order to progressively reduce risk and gain experience in interplanetary mission operations, it may be desirable that initial human missions to Mars, whether to the surface or to Mars orbit, have shorter total crewed durations and minimal stay times at the destination. Opposition-class missions require larger total energy requirements relative to conjunction-class missions but offer the potential for much shorter mission durations, potentially reducing risk and overall systems performance requirements. This paper will present a detailed comparison of conjunction-class and opposition-class human missions to Mars vicinity with a focus on how such missions could be integrated into the initial phases of a Mars exploration campaign. The paper will present the results of a trade study that integrates trajectory/propellant analysis, element design, logistics and sparing analysis, and risk assessment to produce a comprehensive comparison of opposition and conjunction exploration mission constructs. Included in the trade study is an assessment of the risk to the crew and the trade offs between the mission duration and element, logistics, and spares mass. The analysis of the mission trade space was conducted using four simulation and analysis tools developed by NASA. Trajectory analyses for Mars destination missions were conducted using VISITOR (Versatile ImpulSive Interplanetary Trajectory OptimizeR), an in-house tool developed by NASA Langley Research Center. Architecture elements were evaluated using EXploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), a parametric modeling tool that generates exploration architectures through an integrated systems model. Logistics analysis was conducted using NASA's Human Exploration Logistics Model (HELM), and sparing allocation predictions were generated via the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), which is a probabilistic simulation engine that evaluates trades in spacecraft reliability and sparing requirements based on spacecraft system maintainability and reparability.

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Clifford Kuofei

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

CREATING A DECISION CONTEXT FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF INHALATION DOSIMETRY MODELS IN CHILDREN'S RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of risks to children from exposure to airborne pollutants is often complicated by the lack of reliable epidemiological data specific to this age group. As a result, risks are generally estimated from extrapolations based on data obtained in other human age groups (e.g....

Prioritizing Chemicals and Data Requirements for Screening-Level Exposure and Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Brown, Trevor N.; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. PMID:23008278

Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

2015-06-01

Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

[On risk-oriented model of sanitary epidemiologic surveillance in occupational hygiene].

PubMed

Zaitseval, N V; Mai, I V; Kostarev, V G; Bashketova, N S

2015-01-01

In 2015, Federal Service on surveillance in consumers rights protection and public well-being set a task to organize planned work of regional agencies on basis of risk-oriented model of control and supervision. Based on results of pilot project in Rospotrebnadzor Department of Perm area and St-Petersburg, the article covers methodic approaches to classification of objects liable to surveillance in occupational hygiene. The classification considers possibility of sanitary law violation, severity of this violation consequences and number of workers exposed to risk factors including hazardous work conditions. The authors specified recommendations on periodicity and forms of planned inspections considering evaluation of potential risk for human health, determined problems that require solution in implementation of risk-oriented model of surveillance.

Effects of human water management on California drought risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaogang; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko; Sheffield, Justin

2017-04-01

Contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of hydrological drought over California is investigated using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model at 0.5˚ resolution for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that including water management in the modeling framework results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ˜50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of the human impact on drought. A detailed study of the relative attribution of different types of human activities (e.g., groundwater pumping, reservoir operation and irrigation) on changes in drought risk over California is conducted through a higher 10 km resolution simulation. This hydrological modeling, attribution and risk assessment framework is further extended to other drought-prone areas and major drought events in the contiguous U.S., including the 2006/2007 southeastern U.S. drought, the 2011 Texas-northern Mexico drought over the southern plains and the 2012 drought over the central Great Plains.

Microbial Impact on Success of Human Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Duane L.; Ott, C. Mark; Groves, T. O.; Paloski, W. H. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify microbiological risks associated with space exploration and identify potential countermeasures available. Identification of microbial risks associated with space habitation requires knowledge of the sources and expected types of microbial agents. Crew data along with environmental data from water, surfaces, air, and free condensate are utilized in risk examination. Data from terrestrial models are also used. Microbial risks to crew health include bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and viruses. Adverse effects of microbes include: infections, allergic reactions, toxin production, release of volatiles, food spoilage, plant disease, material degradation, and environmental contamination. Risk is difficult to assess because of unknown potential changes in microbes (e.g., mutation) and the human host (e.g., immune changes). Prevention of adverse microbial impacts is preferred over remediation. Preventative measures include engineering measures (e.g., air filtration), crew microbial screening, acceptability standards, and active verification by onboard monitoring. Microbiological agents are important risks to human health and performance during space flight and risks increase with mission duration. Acceptable risk level must be defined. Prevention must be given high priority. Careful screening of crewmembers and payloads is an important element of any risk mitigation plan. Improved quantitation of microbiological risks is a high priority.

Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

2015-02-01

Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

Cross-species transmission of CWD prions.

PubMed

Kurt, Timothy D; Sigurdson, Christina J

2016-01-01

Prions cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases in humans and animals and can be transmitted zoonotically. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a highly transmissible prion disease of wild deer and elk that affects cervids over extensive regions of the United States and Canada. The risk of cross-species CWD transmission has been experimentally evaluated in a wide array of mammals, including non-human primates and mouse models expressing human cellular prion protein. Here we review the determinants of cross-species CWD transmission, and propose a model that may explain a structural barrier for CWD transmission to humans.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Spray Irrigation of Dairy Manure Based on an Empirical Fate and Transport Model

PubMed Central

Burch, Tucker R.; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel P.; Kieke, Burney A.; Larson, Rebecca A.; Firnstahl, Aaron D.; Rule, Ana M.

2017-01-01

Background: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. Objectives: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. Methods: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irrigation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. Results: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. Conclusions: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP283 PMID:28885976

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

PubMed

Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

2016-09-15

It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.

This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact themore » selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.« less

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.

PubMed

Brouwer, Andrew F; Masters, Nina B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2018-04-20

Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Mapping environmental susceptibility to Saint Louis encephalitis virus, based on a decision tree model of remotely-sensed data.

PubMed

Rotela, Camilo H; Spinsanti, Lorena I; Lamfri, Mario A; Contigiani, Marta S; Almirón, Walter R; Scavuzzo, Carlos M

2011-11-01

In response to the first human outbreak (January May 2005) of Saint Louis encephalitis (SLE) virus in Córdoba province, Argentina, we developed an environmental SLE virus risk map for the capital, i.e. Córdoba city. The aim was to provide a map capable of detecting macro-environmental factors associated with the spatial distribution of SLE cases, based on remotely sensed data and a geographical information system. Vegetation, soil brightness, humidity status, distances to water-bodies and areas covered by vegetation were assessed based on pre-outbreak images provided by the Landsat 5TM satellite. A strong inverse relationship between the number of humans infected by SLEV and distance to high-vigor vegetation was noted. A statistical non-hierarchic decision tree model was constructed, based on environmental variables representing the areas surrounding patient residences. From this point of view, 18% of the city could be classified as being at high risk for SLEV infection, while 34% carried a low risk, or none at all. Taking the whole 2005 epidemic into account, 80% of the cases came from areas classified by the model as medium-high or high risk. Almost 46% of the cases were registered in high-risk areas, while there were no cases (0%) in areas affirmed as risk free.

Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of 1,4-Dioxane in Rats, Mice, and Humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sweeney, Lisa M.; Thrall, Karla D.; Poet, Torka S.

2008-01-01

ABSTRACT 1,4-Dioxane (CAS No. 123-91-1) is used primarily as a solvent or as a solvent stabilizer. It can cause lung, liver and kidney damage at sufficiently high exposure levels. Two physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of 1,4-dioxane and its major metabolite, hydroxyethoxyacetic acid (HEAA), were published in 1990. These models have uncertainties and deficiencies that could be addressed and the model strengthened for use in a contemporary cancer risk assessment for 1,4-dioxane. Studies were performed to fill data gaps and reduce uncertainties pertaining to the pharmacokinetics of 1,4-dioxane and HEAA in rats, mice, and humans. Three types of studies were performed:partitionmore » coefficient measurements, blood time course in mice, and in vitro pharmacokinetics using rat, mouse, and human hepatocytes. Updated PBPK models were developed based on these new data and previously available data. The optimized rate of metabolism for the mouse was significantly higher than the value previously estimated. The optimized rat kinetic parameters were similar to those in the 1990 models. Only two human studies were identified. Model predictions were consistent with one study, but did not fit the second as well. In addition, a rat nasal exposure was completed. The results confirmed water directly contacts rat nasal tissues during drinking water under bioassays. Consistent with previous PBPK models, nasal tissues were not specifically included in the model. Use of these models will reduce the uncertainty in future 1,4-dioxane risk assessments.« less

The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small Group Markets under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Ingber, Melvin; Freeman, Sara; Patterson, Lindsey; Cohen, Michael; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses are able to purchase private health insurance through competitive Marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the second of three in this issue of the Review that describe the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk adjustment model. In our first companion article, we discuss the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In this article, we present the risk adjustment model, which is named the HHS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) risk adjustment model. We first summarize the HHS-HCC diagnostic classification, which is the key element of the risk adjustment model. Then the data and methods, results, and evaluation of the risk adjustment model are presented. Fifteen separate models are developed. For each age group (adult, child, and infant), a model is developed for each cost sharing level (platinum, gold, silver, and bronze metal levels, as well as catastrophic plans). Evaluation of the risk adjustment models shows good predictive accuracy, both for individuals and for groups. Lastly, this article provides examples of how the model output is used to calculate risk scores, which are an input into the risk transfer formula. Our third companion paper describes the risk transfer formula. PMID:25360387

IDENTIFYING AREAS WITH A HIGH RISK OF HUMAN INFECTION WITH THE AVIAN INFLUENZA A (H7N9) VIRUS IN EAST ASIA

PubMed Central

Fuller, Trevon; Havers, Fiona; Xu, Cuiling; Fang, Li-Qun; Cao, Wu-Chun; Shu, Yuelong; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Smith, Thomas B.

2014-01-01

Summary Objectives The rapid emergence, spread, and disease severity of avian influenza A(H7N9) in China has prompted concerns about a possible pandemic and regional spread in the coming months. The objective of this study was to predict the risk of future human infections with H7N9 in China and neighboring countries by assessing the association between H7N9 cases at sentinel hospitals and putative agricultural, climatic, and demographic risk factors. Methods This cross-sectional study used the locations of H7N9 cases and negative cases from China’s influenza-like illness surveillance network. After identifying H7N9 risk factors with logistic regression, we used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to construct predictive maps of H7N9 risk across Asia. Results Live bird market density was associated with human H7N9 infections reported in China from March-May 2013. Based on these cases, our model accurately predicted the virus’ spread into Guangxi autonomous region in February 2014. Outside China, we find there is a high risk that the virus will spread to northern Vietnam, due to the import of poultry from China. Conclusions Our risk map can focus efforts to improve surveillance in poultry and humans, which may facilitate early identification and treatment of human cases. PMID:24642206

Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Qian, Quan; Zhao, Jian; Fang, Liqun; Zhou, Hang; Zhang, Wenyi; Wei, Lan; Yang, Hong; Yin, Wenwu; Cao, Wuchun; Li, Qun

2014-07-10

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed. Based on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously. We used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague. This study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

A methodology for overall consequence modeling in chemical industry.

PubMed

Arunraj, N S; Maiti, J

2009-09-30

Risk assessment in chemical process industry is a very important issue for safeguarding human and the ecosystem from damages caused to them. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. However, the commonly used consequence estimation methods involve time-consuming complex mathematical models and simple assimilation of losses without considering all the consequence factors. This lead to the deterioration of quality of estimated risk value. So, the consequence modeling has to be performed in detail considering all major losses with optimal time to improve the decisive value of risk. The losses can be broadly categorized into production loss, assets loss, human health and safety loss, and environment loss. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed to assess the overall consequence considering all the important components of major losses. Secondly, a methodology is developed for the calculation of all the major losses, which are normalized to yield the overall consequence. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study plant involving benzene extraction. The case study result using the proposed consequence assessment scheme is compared with that from the existing methodologies.

Risk Factors for Campylobacteriosis of Chicken, Ruminant, and Environmental Origin: A Combined Case-Control and Source Attribution Analysis

PubMed Central

Wagenaar, Jaap A.; de Boer, Albert G.; Havelaar, Arie H.; Friesema, Ingrid H. M.; French, Nigel P.; Busani, Luca; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2012-01-01

Background Campylobacteriosis contributes strongly to the disease burden of food-borne pathogens. Case-control studies are limited in attributing human infections to the different reservoirs because they can only trace back to the points of exposure, which may not point to the original reservoirs because of cross-contamination. Human Campylobacter infections can be attributed to specific reservoirs by estimating the extent of subtype sharing between strains from humans and reservoirs using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated risk factors for human campylobacteriosis caused by Campylobacter strains attributed to different reservoirs. Sequence types (STs) were determined for 696 C. jejuni and 41 C. coli strains from endemic human cases included in a case-control study. The asymmetric island model, a population genetics approach for modeling Campylobacter evolution and transmission, attributed these cases to four putative animal reservoirs (chicken, cattle, sheep, pig) and to the environment (water, sand, wild birds) considered as a proxy for other unidentified reservoirs. Most cases were attributed to chicken (66%) and cattle (21%), identified as the main reservoirs in The Netherlands. Consuming chicken was a risk factor for campylobacteriosis caused by chicken-associated STs, whereas consuming beef and pork were protective. Risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by ruminant-associated STs were contact with animals, barbecuing in non-urban areas, consumption of tripe, and never/seldom chicken consumption. Consuming game and swimming in a domestic swimming pool during springtime were risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by environment-associated STs. Infections with chicken- and ruminant-associated STs were only partially explained by food-borne transmission; direct contact and environmental pathways were also important. Conclusion/Significance This is the first case-control study in which risk factors for campylobacteriosis are investigated in relation to the attributed reservoirs based on MLST profiles. Combining epidemiological and source attribution data improved campylobacteriosis risk factor identification and characterization, generated hypotheses, and showed that genotype-based source attribution is epidemiologically sensible. PMID:22880049

Using the risk-disturbance hypothesis to assess the relative effects of human disturbance and predation risk on foraging American Oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, K.A.; Otis, D.L.

2005-01-01

The risk-disturbance hypothesis asserts that animals perceive human disturbance similar to nonlethal predation stimuli, and exhibit comparable responses in the form of optimization tradeoffs. However, few studies have examined how natural predation risk factors interact with human-disturbance stimuli to elicit such responses. We observed American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) vigilance behavior from September-December 2002 on the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina. A set of models was constructed based on 340 focal-animal samples and models revealed relationships between vigilance behavior, predator density, and boat activity. Oystercatchers increased vigilance in response to aerial predators, particularly late in the season when predator species composition was dominated by Northern Harriers (Circus cyaneus). At a broader temporal scale, oystercatchers exhibited the highest vigilance rates during simultaneous peaks in boating disturbance and Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) activity. Due to this temporal overlap of stimuli, it is difficult to interpret what may have been driving the observed increased in vigilance. Foraging rates appeared to be primarily driven by habitat and tidal stage indicating that time lost to vigilance did not effectively reduce intake. Taken together, these findings provide some support for the risk-disturbance hypothesis, underscore the sensitivity of disturbance studies to temporal scale, and draw attention to the potential confounding effects of natural predation risk. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2005.

Colorado animal-based plague surveillance systems: relationships between targeted animal species and prediction efficacy of areas at risk for humans.

PubMed

Lowell, Jennifer L; Eisen, Rebecca J; Schotthoefer, Anna M; Xiaocheng, Liang; Montenieri, John A; Tanda, Dale; Pape, John; Schriefer, Martin E; Antolin, Michael F; Gage, Kenneth L

2009-06-01

Human plague risks (Yersinia pestis infection) are greatest when epizootics cause high mortality among this bacterium's natural rodent hosts. Therefore, health departments in plague-endemic areas commonly establish animal-based surveillance programs to monitor Y. pestis infection among plague hosts and vectors. The primary objectives of our study were to determine whether passive animal-based plague surveillance samples collected in Colorado from 1991 to 2005 were sampled from high human plague risk areas and whether these samples provided information useful for predicting human plague case locations. By comparing locations of plague-positive animal samples with a previously constructed GIS-based plague risk model, we determined that the majority of plague-positive Gunnison's prairie dogs (100%) and non-prairie dog sciurids (85.82%), and moderately high percentages of sigmodontine rodents (71.4%), domestic cats (69.3%), coyotes (62.9%), and domestic dogs (62.5%) were recovered within 1 km of the nearest area posing high peridomestic risk to humans. In contrast, the majority of white-tailed prairie dog (66.7%), leporid (cottontailed and jack rabbits) (71.4%), and black-tailed prairie dog (93.0%) samples originated more than 1 km from the nearest human risk habitat. Plague-positive animals or their fleas were rarely (one of 19 cases) collected within 2 km of a case exposure site during the 24 months preceding the dates of illness onset for these cases. Low spatial accuracy for identifying epizootic activity prior to human plague cases suggested that other mammalian species or their fleas are likely more important sources of human infection in high plague risk areas. To address this issue, epidemiological observations and multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analyses (MLVA) were used to preliminarily identify chipmunks as an under-sampled, but potentially important, species for human plague risk in Colorado.

Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile virus in Greece.

PubMed

Valiakos, George; Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos; Giannakopoulos, Alexios; Birtsas, Periklis; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Hutchings, Michael R; Spyrou, Vassiliki; Pervanidou, Danai; Athanasiou, Labrini V; Papadopoulos, Nikolaos; Tsokana, Constantina; Baka, Agoritsa; Manolakou, Katerina; Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios; Artois, Marc; Yon, Lisa; Hannant, Duncan; Petrovska, Liljana; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Billinis, Charalambos

2014-01-01

West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723-1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841-6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.

A COMPARATIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF DERMAL APPENDAGES (HAIR FOLLICLES) ON THE PERCUTANEOUS ABSORPTION OF ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) INSECTICIDES USING QSAR AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) for assessment of dermal exposure of humans to OP pesticides requires the input of representative and comparable input parameters. In the specific case of dermal exposure, regional anatomical variation in...

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zoller; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence (...

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zollner; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence...

Development of Disease-specific, Context-specific Surveillance Models: Avian Influenza (H5N1)-Related Risks and Behaviours in African Countries.

PubMed

Fasina, F O; Njage, P M K; Ali, A M M; Yilma, J M; Bwala, D G; Rivas, A L; Stegeman, A J

2016-02-01

Avian influenza virus (H5N1) is a rapidly disseminating infection that affects poultry and, potentially, humans. Because the avian virus has already adapted to several mammalian species, decreasing the rate of avian-mammalian contacts is critical to diminish the chances of a total adaptation of H5N1 to humans. To prevent the pandemic such adaptation could facilitate, a biology-specific disease surveillance model is needed, which should also consider geographical and socio-cultural factors. Here, we conceptualized a surveillance model meant to capture H5N1-related biological and cultural aspects, which included food processing, trade and cooking-related practices, as well as incentives (or disincentives) for desirable behaviours. This proof of concept was tested with data collected from 378 Egyptian and Nigerian sites (local [backyard] producers/live bird markets/village abattoirs/commercial abattoirs and veterinary agencies). Findings revealed numerous opportunities for pathogens to disseminate, as well as lack of incentives to adopt preventive measures, and factors that promoted epidemic dissemination. Supporting such observations, the estimated risk for H5N1-related human mortality was higher than previously reported. The need for multidimensional disease surveillance models, which may detect risks at higher levels than models that only measure one factor or outcome, was supported. To develop efficient surveillance systems, interactions should be captured, which include but exceed biological factors. This low-cost and easily implementable model, if conducted over time, may identify focal instances where tailored policies may diminish both endemicity and the total adaptation of H5N1 to the human species. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Generic Assessment Criteria for human health risk assessment of potentially contaminated land in China.

PubMed

Cheng, Yuanyuan; Nathanail, Paul C

2009-12-20

Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) are derived using widely applicable assumptions about the characteristics and behaviour of contaminant sources, pathways and receptors. GAC provide nationally consistent guidance, thereby saving money and time. Currently, there are no human health based Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) for contaminated sites in China. Protection of human health is therefore difficult to ensure and demonstrate; and the lack of GAC makes it difficult to tell if there is potential significant risk to human health unless site-specific criteria are derived. This paper derived Chinese GAC (GAC) for five inorganic and eight organic substances for three regions in China for three land uses: urban residential without plant uptake, Chinese cultivated land, and commercial/industrial using the SNIFFER model. The SNIFFER model has been further implemented with a dermal absorption algorithm and the model default input values have been changed to reflect the Chinese exposure scenarios. It is envisaged that the modified SNIFFER model could be used to derive GAC for more contaminants, more Regions, and more land uses. Further research to enhance the reliability and acceptability of the GAC is needed in regional/national surveys in diet and working patterns.

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Saez, Javier; King, Aaron A.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

Concerns about the widespread use of rodent models for human risk assessments of endocrine disruptors

PubMed Central

Habert, René; Muczynski, Vincent; Grisin, Tiphany; Moison, Delphine; Messiaen, Sébastien; Frydman, René; Benachi, Alexandra; Delbes, Géraldine; Lambrot, Romain; Lehraiki, Abdelali; N'Tumba-Byn, Thierry; Guerquin, Marie-Justine; Levacher, Christine; Rouiller-Fabre, Virginie; Livera, Gabriel

2014-01-01

Fetal testis is a major target of endocrine disruptors (EDs). During the last 20 years, we have developed an organotypic culture system that maintains the function of the different fetal testis cell types and have used this approach as a toxicological test to evaluate the effects of various compounds on gametogenesis and steroidogenesis in rat, mouse and human testes. We named this test rat, mouse and human fetal testis assay. With this approach, we compared the effects of six potential EDs ((mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), cadmium, depleted uranium, diethylstilboestrol (DES), bisphenol A (BPA) and metformin) and one signalling molecule (retinoic acid (RA)) on the function of rat, mouse and human fetal testis at a comparable developmental stage. We found that the response is similar in humans and rodents for only one third of our analyses. For instance, RA and MEHP have similar negative effects on gametogenesis in the three species. For another third of our analyses, the threshold efficient concentrations that disturb gametogenesis and/or steroidogenesis differ as a function of the species. For instance, BPA and metformin have similar negative effects on steroidogenesis in human and rodents, but at different threshold doses. For the last third of our analyses, the qualitative response is species specific. For instance, MEHP and DES affect steroidogenesis in rodents, but not in human fetal testis. These species differences raise concerns about the extrapolation of data obtained in rodents to human health risk assessment and highlight the need of rigorous comparisons of the effects in human and rodent models, when assessing ED risk. PMID:24497529

Modeling adverse environmental impacts on the reproductive system.

PubMed

Sussman, N B; Mazumdar, S; Mattison, D R

1999-03-01

When priority topics are being established for the study of women's health, it is generally agreed that one important area on which to focus research is reproduction. For example, increasing attention has been directed to environmental exposures that disrupt the endocrine system and alter reproduction. These concerns also suggest the need to give greater attention to the use of animal toxicologic testing to draw inferences about human reproductive risks. Successful reproduction requires multiple simultaneous and sequential processes in both the male and female, and the effect of toxicity on reproduction-related processes is time dependent. Currently, however, the risk assessment approach does not allow for the use of multiple processes or for considering the reproductive process response as a function of time. We discuss several issues in modeling exposure effects on reproductive function for risk assessment and present an overview of approaches for reproductive risk assessment. Recommendations are provided for an effective animal study design for determining reproductive risk that addresses optimization of the duration of dosing, observation of the effects of exposure on validated biomarkers, analysis of several biomarkers for complete characterization of the exposure on the underlying biologic processes, the need for longitudinally observed exposure effects, and a procedure for estimating human reproductive risk from the animal findings. An approach to characterizing reproductive toxicity to estimate the increased fertility risks in a dibromochloropropane (DBCP)-exposed human population is illustrated, using several reproductive biomarkers simultaneously from a longitudinal rabbit inhalation study of DBCP and an interspecies extrapolation method.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Antimicrobial-Resistant Foodborne Infections in Humans Due to Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Usage in Dairy Cows.

PubMed

Singer, Randall S; Ruegg, Pamela L; Bauman, Dale E

2017-07-01

Recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) is a production-enhancing technology that allows the dairy industry to produce milk more efficiently. Concern has been raised that cows supplemented with rbST are at an increased risk of developing clinical mastitis, which would potentially increase the use of antimicrobial agents and increase human illnesses associated with antimicrobial-resistant bacterial pathogens delivered through the dairy beef supply. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative risk assessment to estimate the potential increased risk of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and subsequent adverse health outcomes as a result of rbST usage in dairy cattle. The quantitative risk assessment included the following steps: (i) release of antimicrobial-resistant organisms from the farm, (ii) exposure of humans via consumption of contaminated beef products, and (iii) consequence of the antimicrobial-resistant infection. The model focused on ceftiofur (parenteral and intramammary) and oxytetracycline (parenteral) treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle and tracked the bacteria Campylobacter spp., Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica, and Escherichia coli in the gastrointestinal tract of the cow. Parameter estimates were developed to be maximum risk to overestimate the risk to humans. The excess number of cows in the U.S. dairy herd that were predicted to carry resistant bacteria at slaughter due to rbST administration was negligible. The total number of excess human illnesses caused by resistant bacteria due to rbST administration was also predicted to be negligible with all risks considerably less than one event per 1 billion people at risk per year for all bacteria. The results indicate a high probability that the use of rbST according to label instructions presents a negligible risk for increasing the number of human illnesses and subsequent adverse outcomes associated with antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or E. coli .

Spatial Patterns and Impacts of Environmental and Climatic Factors on Canine Sinonasal Aspergillosis in Northern California

PubMed Central

Magro, Monise; Sykes, Jane; Vishkautsan, Polina; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-01-01

Sinonasal aspergillosis (SNA) causes chronic nasal discharge in dogs and has a worldwide distribution, although most reports of SNA in North America originate from the western USA. SNA is mainly caused by Aspergillus fumigatus, a ubiquitous saprophytic filamentous fungus. Infection is thought to follow inhalation of spores. SNA is a disease of the nasal cavity and/or sinuses with variable degrees of local invasion and destruction. While some host factors appear to predispose to SNA (such as belonging to a dolichocephalic breed), environmental risk factors have been scarcely studied. Because A. fumigatus is also the main cause of invasive aspergillosis in humans, unraveling the distribution and the environmental and climatic risk factors for this agent in dogs would be of great benefit for public health studies, advancing understanding of both distribution and risk factors in humans. In this study, we reviewed electronic medical records of 250 dogs diagnosed with SNA between 1990 and 2014 at the University of California Davis Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital (VMTH). A 145-mile radius catchment area around the VMTH was selected. Data were aggregated by zip code and incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. The logistic regression model was compared to an autologistic regression model to evaluate the effect of spatial autocorrelation. Traffic density, active composting sites, and environmental and climatic factors related with wind and temperature were significantly associated with increase in disease occurrence in dogs. Results provide valuable information about the risk factors and spatial distribution of SNA in dogs in Northern California. Our ultimate goal is to utilize the results to investigate risk-based interventions, promote awareness, and serve as a model for further studies of aspergillosis in humans. PMID:28717638

Spatial Patterns and Impacts of Environmental and Climatic Factors on Canine Sinonasal Aspergillosis in Northern California.

PubMed

Magro, Monise; Sykes, Jane; Vishkautsan, Polina; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2017-01-01

Sinonasal aspergillosis (SNA) causes chronic nasal discharge in dogs and has a worldwide distribution, although most reports of SNA in North America originate from the western USA. SNA is mainly caused by Aspergillus fumigatus , a ubiquitous saprophytic filamentous fungus. Infection is thought to follow inhalation of spores. SNA is a disease of the nasal cavity and/or sinuses with variable degrees of local invasion and destruction. While some host factors appear to predispose to SNA (such as belonging to a dolichocephalic breed), environmental risk factors have been scarcely studied. Because A. fumigatus is also the main cause of invasive aspergillosis in humans, unraveling the distribution and the environmental and climatic risk factors for this agent in dogs would be of great benefit for public health studies, advancing understanding of both distribution and risk factors in humans. In this study, we reviewed electronic medical records of 250 dogs diagnosed with SNA between 1990 and 2014 at the University of California Davis Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital (VMTH). A 145-mile radius catchment area around the VMTH was selected. Data were aggregated by zip code and incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. The logistic regression model was compared to an autologistic regression model to evaluate the effect of spatial autocorrelation. Traffic density, active composting sites, and environmental and climatic factors related with wind and temperature were significantly associated with increase in disease occurrence in dogs. Results provide valuable information about the risk factors and spatial distribution of SNA in dogs in Northern California. Our ultimate goal is to utilize the results to investigate risk-based interventions, promote awareness, and serve as a model for further studies of aspergillosis in humans.

42 CFR § 512.413 - Quality measures and reporting for SHFFT model.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS EPISODE PAYMENT MODEL... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Quality measures and reporting for SHFFT model. Â... reporting for SHFFT model. (a) Required measures. (1) Hospital-Level Risk-Standardized Complication Rate...

Validation of visualized transgenic zebrafish as a high throughput model to assay bradycardia related cardio toxicity risk candidates.

PubMed

Wen, Dingsheng; Liu, Aiming; Chen, Feng; Yang, Julin; Dai, Renke

2012-10-01

Drug-induced QT prolongation usually leads to torsade de pointes (TdP), thus for drugs in the early phase of development this risk should be evaluated. In the present study, we demonstrated a visualized transgenic zebrafish as an in vivo high-throughput model to assay the risk of drug-induced QT prolongation. Zebrafish larvae 48 h post-fertilization expressing green fluorescent protein in myocardium were incubated with compounds reported to induce QT prolongation or block the human ether-a-go-go-related gene (hERG) K⁺ current. The compounds sotalol, indapaminde, erythromycin, ofoxacin, levofloxacin, sparfloxacin and roxithromycin were additionally administrated by microinjection into the larvae yolk sac. The ventricle heart rate was recorded using the automatic monitoring system after incubation or microinjection. As a result, 14 out of 16 compounds inducing dog QT prolongation caused bradycardia in zebrafish. A similar result was observed with 21 out of 26 compounds which block hERG current. Among the 30 compounds which induced human QT prolongation, 25 caused bradycardia in this model. Thus, the risk of compounds causing bradycardia in this transgenic zebrafish correlated with that causing QT prolongation and hERG K⁺ current blockage in established models. The tendency that high logP values lead to high risk of QT prolongation in this model was indicated, and non-sensitivity of this model to antibacterial agents was revealed. These data suggest application of this transgenic zebrafish as a high-throughput model to screen QT prolongation-related cardio toxicity of the drug candidates. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Human health risk assessment: models for predicting the effective exposure duration of on-site receptors exposed to contaminated groundwater.

PubMed

Baciocchi, Renato; Berardi, Simona; Verginelli, Iason

2010-09-15

Clean-up of contaminated sites is usually based on a risk-based approach for the definition of the remediation goals, which relies on the well known ASTM-RBCA standard procedure. In this procedure, migration of contaminants is described through simple analytical models and the source contaminants' concentration is supposed to be constant throughout the entire exposure period, i.e. 25-30 years. The latter assumption may often result over-protective of human health, leading to unrealistically low remediation goals. The aim of this work is to propose an alternative model taking in account the source depletion, while keeping the original simplicity and analytical form of the ASTM-RBCA approach. The results obtained by the application of this model are compared with those provided by the traditional ASTM-RBCA approach, by a model based on the source depletion algorithm of the RBCA ToolKit software and by a numerical model, allowing to assess its feasibility for inclusion in risk analysis procedures. The results discussed in this work are limited to on-site exposure to contaminated water by ingestion, but the approach proposed can be extended to other exposure pathways. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human factors phase IV : risk analysis tool for new train control technology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-31

This report covers the theoretical development of the safety state model for railroad operations. Using data from a train control technology experiment, experimental application of the model is demonstrated. A stochastic model of system behavior is d...

Human factors phase IV : risk analysis tool for new train control technology

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

This report covers the theoretical development of the safety state model for railroad operations. Using data from a train control technology experiment, experimental application of the model is demonstrated. A stochastic model of system behavior is d...

Growing evidence for human health benefits of boron

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Growing evidence from numerous laboratories using a variety of experimental models shows that boron is a bioactive beneficial, perhaps essential, element for humans. Reported beneficial actions of boron include arthritis alleviation or risk reduction; bone growth and maintenance; central nervous sys...

In vivo transgenic bioassays and assessment of the carcinogenic potential of pharmaceuticals.

PubMed Central

Contrera, J F; DeGeorge, J J

1998-01-01

There is general agreement in the scientific community on the need to improve carcinogenicity testing and the assessment of human carcinogenic risk and to incorporate more information on mechanisms and modes of action into the risk assessment process. Advances in molecular biology have identified a growing number of genes such as protooncogenes and tumor-suppressor genes that are highly conserved across species and are associated with a wide variety of human and animal cancers. In vivo transgenic rodent models incorporating such mechanisms are used to identify mechanisms involved in tumor formation and as selective tests for carcinogens. Transgenic methods can be considered an extension of genetic manipulation by selective breeding, which long has been employed in science and agriculture. The use of two rodent species in carcinogenicity testing is especially important for identifying transspecies carcinogens. The capacity of a substance to induce neoplasia across species suggests that the mechanism(s) involved in the induction of the neoplasia are conserved and therefore may have significance for humans. Based on available information there is sufficient experience with some in vivo transgenic rodent carcinogenicity models to support their application as complementary second species studies in conjunction with a single 2-year rodent carcinogenicity study. The optional substitution of a second 2-year rodent carcinogenicity study with an alternative study such as an in vivo transgenic carcinogenicity study is part of the International Conference on Harmonization guidance S1B: Testing for Carcinogenicity of Pharmaceuticals. This guidance is intended to be flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of possible carcinogenicity assessment models currently under consideration or models that may be developed in the future. The use of an in vivo transgenic mouse model in place of a second 2-year mouse study will improve the assessment of carcinogenic risk by contributing insights into the mechanisms of tumorigenesis and potential human relevance not available from a standard 2-year bioassay. It is envisioned that this will stimulate the further development of more efficient and relevant methods for identifying and assessing potential human carcinogenic risk, which will benefit public health. PMID:9539006

NASA Human Research Program Space Radiation Program Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori; Huff, Janice; Patel, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Hu, Shaowwen; Kidane, Yared; Myung-Hee, Kim; Li, Yongfeng; Nounu, Hatem; Plante, Ianik;

Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak of 1665-1666.

PubMed

Whittles, Lilith K; Didelot, Xavier

2016-05-11

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history, and still causes worrying outbreaks in Africa and South America. Despite the historical and current importance of plague, several questions remain unanswered concerning its transmission routes and infection risk factors. The plague outbreak that started in September 1665 in the Derbyshire village of Eyam claimed 257 lives over 14 months, wiping out entire families. Since previous attempts at modelling the Eyam plague, new data have been unearthed from parish records revealing a much more complete record of the disease. Using a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods, we found that both rodent-to-human and human-to-human transmission played an important role in spreading the infection, and that they accounted, respectively, for a quarter and three-quarters of all infections, with a statistically significant seasonality effect. We also found that the force of infection was stronger for infectious individuals living in the same household compared with the rest of the village. Poverty significantly increased the risk of disease, whereas adulthood decreased the risk. These results on the Eyam outbreak contribute to the current debate on the relative importance of plague transmission routes. © 2016 The Authors.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Tiedt, Sonia; Lo Iacono, Gianni; Bett, Bernard; Jones, Kate E

2017-07-19

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584173

Vaccines against viral hemorrhagic fevers: non-human primate models.

PubMed

Carrion, Ricardo; Patterson, Jean L

2011-06-01

Viral hemorrhagic fevers are a group of disease syndromes caused by infection with certain RNA viruses. The disease is marked by a febrile response, malaise, coagulopathy and vascular permeability culminating in death. Case fatality rates can reach 90% depending on the etiologic agent. Currently, there is no approved antiviral treatment. Because of the high case fatality, risk of importation and the potential to use these agents as biological weapons, development of countermeasures to these agents is a high priority. The sporadic nature of disease outbreaks and the ethical issues associated with conducting a human trial for such diseases make human studies impractical; therefore, development of countermeasures must occur in relevant animal models. Non-human primates are superior models to study infectious disease because their immune system is similar to humans and they are good predictors of efficacy in vaccine development and other intervention strategies. This review article summarizes viral hemorrhagic fever non-human primate models.

Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P; Mvere, David A; Emmanuel, Jean C; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2016-06-01

Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) adapted a published incidence-window period (IWP) model, which has less demanding data requirements. In this study we assess the impact of various definitions of blood donor subpopulations and models on RR estimates. We compared the outcomes of two published models and an adapted NBSZ model. The Schreiber IWP model (Model 1), an amended version (Model 2), and an adapted NBSZ model (Model 3) were applied. Variably the three models include prevalence, incidence, preseroconversion intervals, mean lifetime risk, and person-years at risk. Annual mean RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each of the three models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were determined using NBSZ blood donor data from 2002 through 2011. The annual mean RR estimates for Models 1 through 3 were 1 in 6542, 5805, and 6418, respectively for HIV; 1 in 1978, 2027, and 1628 for HBV; and 1 in 9588, 15,126, and 7750, for HCV. The adapted NBSZ model provided comparable results to the published methods and these highlight the high occurrence of HBV in Zimbabwe. The adapted NBSZ model could be used as an alternative to estimate RRs when in settings where two repeat donations are not available. © 2016 AABB.

Biomass burning contributed most to the human cancer risk exposed to the soil-bound PAHs from Chengdu Economic Region, western China.

PubMed

Zheng, Huang; Xing, Xinli; Hu, Tianpeng; Zhang, Yuan; Zhang, Jiaquan; Zhu, Gehao; Li, Ying; Qi, Shihua

2018-05-03

The purpose of this study was to assess the human cancer risk due to the exposure to the soil-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from Chengdu Economic Region (CER), western China with the main concern on cancer risk source apportionment. The total concentrations of sixteen PAHs ranged from 12.5 to 75431 ng g -1 , with a mean value of 3106 ng g -1 , which suggested that the most areas of CER were contaminated. Source apportionment of PAHs was conducted by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and the biomass burning contributed most (63.6%) to the total PAHs, followed by petroleum combustion (16.0%), coke source (11.3%), and petrogenic source (9.2%). Results from incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) calculation showed that soil ingestion exerted the highest cancer risk (accounted for 98.1 - 99.3% of the total cancer risk) on human health among three different exposure pathways, followed by dermal contact (0.66 - 1.83%) and inhalation (0.03 - 0.04%). Among different age groups, adult suffered the highest cancer risk via any exposure pathways. Based on PMF and ILCR methods, the cancer risk source apportionment was conducted and the biomass burning showed moderate cancer risk. The petrogenic, coke, and petroleum sources showed low cancer risks to human. To analyze the sensitivity of the parameters used in ILCR calculation, Monte Carlo simulation was employed. The results indicated that the contribution of each source and exposure duration (ED) were the influential parameters on human health associated with soil-bound PAHs. Therefore, much attentions should be paid to biomass burning to avoid cumulative cancer risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A methodology of the assessment of environmental and human health risks from amine emissions from post combustion CO2 capture technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korre, Anna; Manzoor, Saba; Simperler, Alexandra

2015-04-01

Post combustion CO2 capture (PCCC) technology in power plants using amines as solvent for CO2 capture, is one of the reduction technologies employed to combat escalating levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, amine solvents used for capturing CO2 produce negative emissions such as, nitrosamines and nitramines, which are suspected to be potent carcinogens. It is therefore essential to assess the atmospheric fate of these amine emissions in the atmosphere by studying their atmospheric chemistry, dispersion and transport pathways away from the source and deposition in the environment, so as to be able to assess accurately the risk posed to human health and the natural environment. An important knowledge gap until recently has been the consideration of the atmospheric chemistry of these amine emissions simultaneously with dispersion and deposition studies so as to perform reliable human health and environmental risk assessments. The authors have developed a methodology to assess the distribution of such emissions away from a post-combustion facility by studying the atmospheric chemistry of monoethanolamine, the most commonly used solvent for CO2 capture, and those of the resulting degradation amines, methylamine and dimethylamine. This was coupled with dispersion modeling calculations (Manzoor, et al., 2014; Manzoor et al,2015). Rate coefficients describing the entire atmospheric chemistry schemes of the amines studied were evaluated employing quantum chemical theoretical and kinetic modeling calculations. These coefficients were used to solve the advection-dispersion-chemical equation using an atmospheric dispersion model, ADMS 5. This methodology is applicable to any size of a power plant and at any geographical location. In this paper, the humman health risk assessment is integrated in the modelling study. The methodology is demonstrated on a case study on the UK's largest capture pilot plant, Ferrybridge CCPilot 100+, to estimate the dispersion, chemical transformation and transport pathways of the amines and their degradation products away from the emitting facilities for the worst case scenario. The obtained results are used in calculating the cancer risks centred on oral cancer slope factor (CSF), risk-specific dose (RSD) and tolerant risk level of these chemical discharges. According to the CSF and RSD relationship (WQSA, 2011), at high CSF the RSD is small i.e. resulting in a high potent carcinogen risk. The health risk assessment is performed by following the US EPA method (USEPA, 1992) which considers atmospheric concentrations of these pollutants (mg m-3, evaluated by the dispersion model), daily intake through inhalation (mg kg-1 d-1), inhalation rate (m3 d-1), body weight (kg), average time (d), exposure time (d), exposure frequency (d), absorption factor and retention factor. Deterministic and probabilistic risk estimation of human health risks caused by exposure to these chemical pollutant discharges are conducted as well. From the findings of this study, it is suggested that the developed methodology is reliable in determining the risk these amine emissions from PCCC technology pose to human health. With this reliable and a universal approach it is possible to assess the fate of the amine emissions which remains a key area to address for the large scale CCS implementation.

Reductions in human Lyme disease risk due to the effects of oral vaccination on tick-to-mouse and mouse-to-tick transmission.

PubMed

Voordouw, Maarten J; Tupper, Haley; Önder, Özlem; Devevey, Godefroy; Graves, Christopher J; Kemps, Brian D; Brisson, Dustin

2013-04-01

Vaccinating wildlife is becoming an increasingly popular method to reduce human disease risks from pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. To successfully limit human disease risk, vaccines targeting the wildlife reservoirs of B. burgdorferi must be easily distributable and must effectively reduce pathogen transmission from infected animals, given that many animals in nature will be infected prior to vaccination. We assessed the efficacy of an easily distributable oral bait vaccine based on the immunogenic outer surface protein A (OspA) to protect uninfected mice from infection and to reduce transmission from previously infected white-footed mice, an important reservoir host of B. burgdorferi. Oral vaccination of white-footed mice effectively reduces transmission of B. burgdorferi at both critical stages of the Lyme disease transmission cycle. First, oral vaccination of uninfected white-footed mice elicits an immune response that protects mice from B. burgdorferi infection. Second, oral vaccination of previously infected mice significantly reduces the transmission of B. burgdorferi to feeding ticks despite a statistically nonsignificant immune response. We used the estimates of pathogen transmission to and from vaccinated and unvaccinated mice to model the efficacy of an oral vaccination campaign targeting wild white-footed mice. Projection models suggest that the effects of the vaccine on both critical stages of the transmission cycle of B. burgdorferi act synergistically in a positive feedback loop to reduce the nymphal infection prevalence, and thus human Lyme disease risk, well below what would be expected from either effect alone. This study suggests that oral immunization of wildlife with an OspA-based vaccine can be a promising long-term strategy to reduce human Lyme disease risk.

[Chest modelling and automotive accidents].

PubMed

Trosseille, Xavier

2011-11-01

Automobile development is increasingly based on mathematical modeling. Accurate models of the human body are now available and serve to develop new means of protection. These models used to consist of rigid, articulated bodies but are now made of several million finite elements. They are now capable of predicting some risks of injury. To develop these models, sophisticated tests were conducted on human cadavers. For example, chest modeling started with material characterization and led to complete validation in the automobile environment. Model personalization, based on medical imaging, will permit studies of the behavior and tolerances of the entire population.

SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF ENHANCED HIV RISK REDUCTION AMONG PEER INTERVENTIONISTS

PubMed Central

Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Weeks, Margaret R.; Convey, Mark; Li, Jianghong

2014-01-01

The authors present a model of interactive social psychological and relational feedback processes leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction behavior change among active drug users trained as Peer Health Advocates (PHAs). The model is supported by data from qualitative interviews with PHAs and members of their drug-using networks in the Risk Avoidance Partnership (RAP) project. Results suggest three mutually reinforcing social psychological processes that motivate PHAs to provide HIV prevention intervention to their peers and to reduce their own risk behaviors: development of a prosocial identity, positive social reinforcement from drug users and community members, and cognitive dissonance associated with continued risk behavior while engaging in health advocacy. These processes directly influence peer interventionists’ motivation and efficacy to continue giving intervention to their peers, and to reduce their HIV risk behaviors. The authors discuss implications of the model for continued research on effective HIV prevention in high-risk groups. PMID:25414528

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

PubMed Central

Ruder, Mark G.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Tucker, Compton J.; Ateya, Leonard O.; Oriko, Abuu A.; Gacheru, Stephen; Wilson, William C.

2013-01-01

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based on key environmental indicators that precede Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootics and epidemics. Although the timing and locations of human case data from the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak in Kenya have been compared to risk zones flagged by the model, seroprevalence of RVF antibodies in wildlife has not yet been analyzed in light of temporal and spatial predictions of RVF activity. Primarily wild ungulate serum samples from periods before, during, and after the 2006–2007 RVF epizootic were analyzed for the presence of RVFV IgM and/or IgG antibody. Results show an increase in RVF seropositivity from samples collected in 2007 (31.8%), compared to antibody prevalence observed from 2000–2006 (3.3%). After the epizootic, average RVF seropositivity diminished to 5% in samples collected from 2008–2009. Overlaying maps of modeled RVF risk assessments with sampling locations indicated positive RVF serology in several species of wild ungulate in or near areas flagged as being at risk for RVF. Our results establish the need to continue and expand sero-surveillance of wildlife species Kenya and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa to further calibrate and improve the RVF risk model, and better understand the dynamics of RVFV transmission. PMID:23840512

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britch, Seth C.; Binepal, Yatinder S.; Ruder, Mark G.; Kariithi, Henry M.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Tucker, Compton J.; Ateya, Leonard O.; Oriko, Abuu A.;

Assessing habitat risk from human activities to inform coastal and marine spatial planning: a demonstration in Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkema, Katie K.; Verutes, Gregory; Bernhardt, Joanna R.; Clarke, Chantalle; Rosado, Samir; Canto, Maritza; Wood, Spencer A.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Rosenthal, Amy; McField, Melanie; de Zegher, Joann

2014-11-01

Integrated coastal and ocean management requires transparent and accessible approaches for understanding the influence of human activities on marine environments. Here we introduce a model for assessing the combined risk to habitats from multiple ocean uses. We apply the model to coral reefs, mangrove forests and seagrass beds in Belize to inform the design of the country’s first Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, review of existing legislation and data collected from diverse sources, we map the current distribution of coastal and ocean activities and develop three scenarios for zoning these activities in the future. We then estimate ecosystem risk under the current and three future scenarios. Current levels of risk vary spatially among the nine coastal planning regions in Belize. Empirical tests of the model are strong—three-quarters of the measured data for coral reef health lie within the 95% confidence interval of interpolated model data and 79% of the predicted mangrove occurrences are associated with observed responses. The future scenario that harmonizes conservation and development goals results in a 20% reduction in the area of high-risk habitat compared to the current scenario, while increasing the extent of several ocean uses. Our results are a component of the ICZM Plan for Belize that will undergo review by the national legislature in 2015. This application of our model to marine spatial planning in Belize illustrates an approach that can be used broadly by coastal and ocean planners to assess risk to habitats under current and future management scenarios.

Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.

2011-01-01

The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and supplementing small data samples.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinderliter, Paul M.; Thrall, Karla D.; Corley, Rick A.

Vinyl acetate has been shown to induce nasal lesions in rodents in inhalation bioassays. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for vinyl acetate has been used in human risk assessment, but previous in vivo validation was conducted only in rats. Controlled human exposures to vinyl acetate were conducted to provide validation data for the application of the model in humans. Five volunteers were exposed to 1, 5, and 10 ppm 13 C1 , 13 C2 vinyl acetate via inhalation. A probe inserted into thenasopharyngeal region sampled both 13 C1 , 13 C2 vinyl acetate and the major metabolite 13 C1more » , 13 C2 acetaldehyde during rest and light exercise. Nasopharyngeal air concentrations were analyzed in real time by ion trap mass spectrometry (MS/MS). Experimental concentrations of both vinyl acetate and acetaldehyde were then compared to predicted concentrations calculated from the previously published human model. Model predictions of vinyl acetate nasal extraction compared favorably with measured values of vinyl acetate, as did predictions of nasopharyngeal acetaldehyde when compared to measured acetaldehyde. The results showed that the current PBPK model structure and parameterization are appropriate for vinyl acetate. These analyses were conducted from 1 to 10 ppm vinyl acetate, a range relevant to workplace exposure standards but which would not be expected to saturate vinyl acetate metabolism. Risk assessment based on this model further concluded that 24 h per day exposures up to 1 ppm do not present concern regarding cancer or non-cancer toxicity. Validation of the vinyl acetate human PBPK model provides support for these conclusions.« less

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

Process-based model with flood control measures towards more realistic global flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mu, M.; Lv, A.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In the profoundly human-influenced era, the Anthropocene, increased amount of land was developed in flood plains and many flood control measures were implemented to protect people and infrastructures placed in the flood-prone areas. These human influences (for example, dams and dykes) have altered peak streamflow and flood risk, and are already an integral part of flood. However, most of the process-based flood models have yet to taken into account the human influences. In this study, we used a hydrological model together with an advanced hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk at the Baiyangdian catchment. The Baiyangdian Lake is the largest shallow freshwater lake in North China, and it was used as a flood storage area in the past. A new development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle, namely the Xiongan new area, was recently established in the flood-prone area around the lake. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEMs) was used to parameterize the hydrodynamic model simulation, and the inundation estimates were compared with published flood maps and observed inundation area during the extreme historical flood events. A simple scheme was carried out to consider the impacts of flood control measures, including the reservoirs in the headwaters and the dykes to be built. By comparing model simulations with and without the influences of flood control measures, we demonstrated the importance of human influences in altering the inundated area and depth under design flood conditions. Based on the SRTM DEM and dam and reservoir data in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database, we further discuss the potential to develop a global flood model with human influences.

Designing automation for human use: empirical studies and quantitative models.

PubMed

Parasuraman, R

2000-07-01

An emerging knowledge base of human performance research can provide guidelines for designing automation that can be used effectively by human operators of complex systems. Which functions should be automated and to what extent in a given system? A model for types and levels of automation that provides a framework and an objective basis for making such choices is described. The human performance consequences of particular types and levels of automation constitute primary evaluative criteria for automation design when using the model. Four human performance areas are considered--mental workload, situation awareness, complacency and skill degradation. Secondary evaluative criteria include such factors as automation reliability, the risks of decision/action consequences and the ease of systems integration. In addition to this qualitative approach, quantitative models can inform design. Several computational and formal models of human interaction with automation that have been proposed by various researchers are reviewed. An important future research need is the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Application of these models provides an objective basis for designing automation for effective human use.

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

2012-01-01

Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

Early assessment of proarrhythmic risk of drugs using the in vitro data and single-cell-based in silico models: proof of concept.

PubMed

Abbasi, Mitra; Small, Ben G; Patel, Nikunjkumar; Jamei, Masoud; Polak, Sebastian

2017-02-01

To determine the predictive performance of in silico models using drug-specific preclinical cardiac electrophysiology data to investigate drug-induced arrhythmia risk (e.g. Torsade de pointes (TdP)) in virtual human subjects. To assess drug proarrhythmic risk, we used a set of in vitro electrophysiological measurements describing ion channel inhibition triggered by the investigated drugs. The Cardiac Safety Simulator version 2.0 (CSS; Simcyp, Sheffield, UK) platform was used to simulate human left ventricular cardiac myocyte action potential models. This study shows the impact of drug concentration changes on particular ionic currents by using available experimental data. The simulation results display safety threshold according to drug concentration threshold and log (threshold concentration/ effective therapeutic plasma concentration (ETPC)). We reproduced the underlying biophysical characteristics of cardiac cells resulted in effects of drugs associated with cardiac arrhythmias (action potential duration (APD) and QT prolongation and TdP) which were observed in published 3D simulations, yet with much less computational burden.

Reconstructing Exposures from Biomarkers using Exposure-Pharmacokinetic Modeling - A Case Study with Carbaryl

EPA Science Inventory

Sources of uncertainty involved in exposure reconstruction for a short half-life chemical, carbaryl, were characterized using the Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System (CARES), an exposure model, and a human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. CARES was...

Risk estimates for CO exposure in man based on behavioral and physiological responses in rodents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, M. K.

1983-01-01

An examination of animal response to CO is studied along with potential models for extrapolating animal test data to humans. The best models for extrapolating data were found to be the Probit and Weibull models.

Mental models in risk assessment: informing people about drugs.

PubMed

Jungermann, H; Schütz, H; Thüring, M

1988-03-01

One way to communicate about the risks of drugs is through the use of package inserts. The problems associated with this medium of informing patients have been investigated by several researchers who found that people require information about drugs they are using, including extensive risk information, and that they are willing to take this information into account in their usage of drugs. But empirical results also show that people easily misinterpret the information given. A conceptual framework is proposed that might be used for better understanding the cognitive processes involved in such a type of risk assessment and communication. It is based on the idea that people develop, through experience, a mental model of how a drug works, which effects it might produce, that contraindications have to be considered, etc. This mental model is "run" when a specific package insert has been read and a specific question arises such as, for example, whether certain symptoms can be explained as normal or whether they require special attention and action. We argue that the mental model approach offers a useful perspective for examining how people understand package inserts, and consequently for improving their content and design. The approach promises to be equally useful for other aspects of risk analysis that are dependent upon human judgment and decision making, e.g., threat diagnosis and human reliability analysis.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

Comparison of elemental composition in two wild and cultured marine fish and potential risks to human health.

PubMed

Marengo, Michel; Durieux, Eric D H; Ternengo, Sonia; Lejeune, Pierre; Degrange, Elise; Pasqualini, Vanina; Gobert, Sylvie

2018-08-30

Among all available species, fish are a powerful model for risk-benefit assessments to study the effects of contaminants on human health. Gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata, Linnaeus 1758) and european seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Linnaeus 1758) are two species of great economic importance, representing very large production volumes in the Mediterranean. The objective of this study is (1) to analyze the concentrations of Trace Elements (TE) between wild and cultured seabream and seabass specimens, (2) to compare the determined concentrations with other studies, and (3) to increase the data about the potential risks to human health. Our results point to significant intra- and interspecies-specific differences between wild and cultured fish for several trace elements. Several strong and moderate inter-elemental correlations in fish muscle were observed through correlation analysis. In our study, the mean levels of trace elements were still below the standard safety values for fish intended for human consumption. The same results were reached for all the parameters analyzed (international legal limits, estimated weekly intake, provisional tolerable weekly intake, target hazard quotient, target cancer risk), with trace element levels in fish below those that could pose a risk to human health. Consequently, these fish can be considered safe for human consumption. A better understanding of the levels of trace elements in fish would also better inform consumers about the potential risks of exposure to contaminants. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of bovine spongiform encephalopathy transmission through bone graft material derived from bovine bone used for dental applications.

PubMed

Sogal, A; Tofe, A J

1999-09-01

Several commercial products are currently available for clinical application as bone graft substitutes. These products can be broadly classified into two categories: synthetic and natural. Bovine bone is a popular source for several of the natural bone substitutes. The availability of bovine derived xenogenic bone substitutes has made it possible to avoid traumatic and expensive secondary surgery to obtain autogenous bone once thought essential for effective bone replacement. While autogenous bone still remains the undisputed "gold standard" in bone grafting, the realization that bone requirement in several clinical applications is as effectively met by xenografts has lead to their widespread use. But the convenience of using xenografts is tempered by the possibility of disease transmission from cattle to humans. The recent incidents of bovine spongiform encephalopathies (BSE) in humans have underscored this likelihood. In this paper, we report a risk analysis performed to assess the possibility of such disease transmission from a commercially available bone graft substitute (BGS) that is popularly used in clinical dentistry. An extensive review of current literature on the status of risk assessment of BSE transmission was conducted, and two risk assessment models were identified as applicable to the present study. Risk assessment models developed by the German Federal Ministry of Health and by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association of America were applied to BGS. Results from the analyses conducted using both models showed that the risk of disease (BSE) transmission from BGS was negligible and could be attributed to the stringent protocols followed in sourcing and processing of the raw bovine bone used in the commercial product. Based on the risk analysis, it is evident that the risk of BSE infection from BGS is several orders of magnitude less than that posed by the risk of death related to, lightning, tornadoes, or similar remote events. However, this low risk can only be maintained as long as an effective and active risk management program is implemented in operations that involve processing xenogenic tissue for human use.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL COMPUTER MODELING OF THE HUMAN UPPER RESPIRATORY TRACT

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT
Computer simulations of airflow and particle transport phenomena within the human respiratory system have important applications to aerosol therapy (e.g., the targeted delivery of inhaled drugs) and inhalation toxicology (e.g., the risk assessment of air pollutants). ...

USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS

EPA Science Inventory

Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...

Computational Molecular Modeling Methods Applied to Screening for Toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

The risk to human health and the environment of chemicals that result from human activity often must be evaluated when relevant elements of the preferred data set are unavailable. Therefore, strategies are needed that estimate this information and prioritize the outstanding data...

Understanding the Association Between Negative Life Events and Suicidal Risk in College Students: Examining Self-Compassion as a Potential Mediator.

PubMed

Chang, Edward C; Yu, Tina; Najarian, Alexandria S-M; Wright, Kaitlin M; Chen, Wenting; Chang, Olivia D; Du, Yifeng; Hirsch, Jameson K

2017-06-01

We tested a hypothesized model consistent with the notion that self-compassion mediates the association between negative life events and suicidal risk (viz., depressive symptoms and suicidal behaviors) in college students METHOD: The sample was comprised of 331 college students. Self-compassion facets (viz., self-kindness, self-judgment, common humanity, isolation, mindfulness, and overidentification) were used in testing for multiple mediation, controlling for sex. Common humanity, mindfulness, and overidentification were found to mediate the association between negative life events (NLE) and depressive symptoms. However, common humanity was found to be the only mediator of the association between NLE and suicidal behaviors. These findings suggest that there are specific facets of self-compassion that account for the association between NLE and suicidal risk in college students and that (loss of) common humanity plays a central role in this process. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term nitrite inhalant exposure and cancer risk in MSM

PubMed Central

Dutta, Anupriya; Uno, Hajime; Holman, Alex; Lorenz, David R.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Gabuzda, Dana

2017-01-01

Objectives: Nitrite inhalants (poppers) are commonly used recreational drugs among MSM and were previously associated with elevated rates of high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) seroconversion, and transient immunosuppressive effects in experimental models. Whether long-term popper use is associated with cancer risk among MSM in the HAART era is unclear. Design: Prospective cohort study of cancer risk in 3223 HIV-infected and uninfected MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1996–2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between heavy popper use (defined as daily or weekly use for at least 1 year) and risk of individual cancers or composite category of virus-associated cancers. Results: Among all participants, heavy popper use was not associated with increased risk of any individual cancers. Among HIV-uninfected men aged 50–70, heavy popper use was associated with increased risk of virus-associated cancer with causes linked to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus in models adjusted for demographics, number of sexual partners, immunological parameters (CD4+ cell counts or CD4+/CD8+ ratios), and hepatitis B and C viruses [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24, 1.05–9.96], or sexually transmitted infections (IRR 3.03, 95% CI, 1.01–9.09), as was cumulative use over a 5-year period (IRR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003–1.021; P = 0.007). There was no significant association between heavy popper use and virus-associated cancer in HIV-infected men. Conclusions: Long-term heavy popper use is associated with elevated risk of some virus-associated cancers with causes related to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus infections in older HIV-uninfected MSM independent of sexual behavior and immunological parameters. PMID:28441176

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

Predicting Potential Risk Areas of Human Plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Neerinckx, Simon; Peterson, A. Townsend; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef; Kimaro, Didas; Leirs, Herwig

2010-01-01

A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986–2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km2 of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague. PMID:20207880

Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict

PubMed Central

Miller, Jennifer R. B.; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Schmitz, Oswald J.

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people’s perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners’ perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict. PMID:27617831

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

PubMed

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

Bioaccessibility and human health risk assessment of lead in soil from Daye City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Li, F.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Xiong, L.; Huang, J. B.; Fu, J. T.

2018-01-01

Lead (Pb) in soil from 4 sampling sites of Daye City was studied. Bioaccessibilities of Pb in soil were determined by the method of simplified bioaccessible extraction test (SBET). Since traditional health risk assessment was built on the basis of metal total content, the risk may be overestimated. Modified human health risk assessment model considering bioaccessibility was built in this study. Health risk of adults and children exposure to Pb based on total contents and bioaccessible contents were evaluated. The results showed that bioaccessible content of Pb in soil was much lower than its total content, and the average bioaccessible factor (BF) was only 25.37%. The hazard indexes (HIs) for adults and children calculated by two methods were all lower than 1. It indicated that there were no no-carcinogenic risks of Pb for human in Daye. By comparing with the results, the average bioaccessible HIs for adults and children were lower than the total one, which was due to the lower hazard quotient (HQ). Proportions of non-carcinogenic risk exposure to Pb via different pathways have also changed. Particularly, the most main risk exposure pathway for adults turned from the oral ingestion to the inhalation.

Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

PubMed

Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

1992-04-21

The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of integral shapes in human mortality, that convergence is a salient feature of multiple endpoints, but that pure competition may not be the best explanation for the exact type of convergence observable in human mortality. Finally, while the chain models were not motivated by any specific biological structures, interesting biological correlates to them may be useful in gerontological research.

The public health impact of avian influenza viruses.

PubMed

Katz, J M; Veguilla, V; Belser, J A; Maines, T R; Van Hoeven, N; Pappas, C; Hancock, K; Tumpey, T M

2009-04-01

Influenza viruses with novel hemagglutinin and 1 or more accompanying genes derived from avian influenza viruses sporadically emerge in humans and have the potential to result in a pandemic if the virus causes disease and spreads efficiently in a population that lacks immunity to the novel hemagglutinin. Since 1997, multiple avian influenza virus subtypes have been transmitted directly from domestic poultry to humans and have caused a spectrum of human disease, from asymptomatic to severe and fatal. To assess the pandemic risk that avian influenza viruses pose, we have used multiple strategies to better understand the capacity of avian viruses to infect, cause disease, and transmit among mammals, including humans. Seroepidemiologic studies that evaluate the frequency and risk of human infection with avian influenza viruses in populations with exposure to domestic or wild birds can provide a better understanding of the pandemic potential of avian influenza subtypes. Investigations conducted in Hong Kong following the first H5N1 outbreak in humans in 1997 determined that exposure to poultry in live bird markets was a key risk factor for human disease. Among poultry workers, butchering and exposure to sick poultry were risk factors for antibody to H5 virus, which provided evidence for infection. A second risk assessment tool, the ferret, can be used to evaluate the level of virulence and potential for host-to-host transmission of avian influenza viruses in this naturally susceptible host. Avian viruses isolated from humans exhibit a level of virulence and transmissibility in ferrets that generally reflects that seen in humans. The ferret model thus provides a means to monitor emerging avian influenza viruses for pandemic risk, as well as to evaluate laboratory-generated reassortants and mutants to better understand the molecular basis of influenza virus transmissibility. Taken together, such studies provide valuable information with which we can assess the public health risk of avian influenza viruses.

Controlled human infection with RSV: The opportunities of experimental challenge.

PubMed

Habibi, Maximillian S; Chiu, Christopher

2017-01-11

Despite the recent explosion in RSV vaccine development, there remain substantial hurdles to overcome before licensing of effective vaccines will allow widespread use, particularly in high-risk populations. Incomplete understanding of mechanisms and correlates of protection against RSV mean that, for the time being, successful RSV vaccines must directly demonstrate efficacy, which necessitates large and costly clinical trials in naturally infected patients. To mitigate the risks inherent in progressing to these late-stage trials, experimental human RSV infection studies have recently been re-established, representing the interface between pre-clinical models and observational studies of patients. Not only can they be used for early proof-of-concept clinical trials to test vaccine efficacy, but human challenge studies also offer the potential to better understand protective immunity against RSV infection to improve vaccine design and delivery. In the past, controlled human infection studies with RSV have been instrumental in elucidating the influence of factors such as route of infection and type of inoculum on the course of disease. Recently, efficacy trials of novel RSV antiviral drugs have also been successfully undertaken. Now, with advances in technology, detailed investigations of human mucosal immunity in the RSV-infected airway are possible. These have indicated defects in RSV-induced humoral and CD8+ T cell immunity that may contribute to the recurrent symptomatic infection that occurs throughout life and should be circumvented by optimal vaccines. Here, we discuss the insights derived from RSV human challenge models; the major impediments to their more widespread uptake; and their potential benefit in accelerating vaccine development, including future directions to further enhance the relevance of these models to at-risk patient populations. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, L.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2013-01-01

Current models to estimate radiation risk use the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort that received high doses and high dose rates of radiation. Transferring risks from these high dose rates to the low doses and dose rates received by astronauts in space is a source of uncertainty in our risk calculations. The solid cancer models recommended by BEIR VII [1], UNSCEAR [2], and Preston et al [3] is fitted adequately by a linear dose response model, which implies that low doses and dose rates would be estimated the same as high doses and dose rates. However animal and cell experiments imply there should be curvature in the dose response curve for tumor induction. Furthermore animal experiments that directly compare acute to chronic exposures show lower increases in tumor induction than acute exposures. A dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) has been estimated and applied to transfer risks from the high doses and dose rates of the LSS cohort to low doses and dose rates such as from missions in space. The BEIR VII committee [1] combined DDREF estimates using the LSS cohort and animal experiments using Bayesian methods for their recommendation for a DDREF value of 1.5 with uncertainty. We reexamined the animal data considered by BEIR VII and included more animal data and human chromosome aberration data to improve the estimate for DDREF. Several experiments chosen by BEIR VII were deemed inappropriate for application to human risk models of solid cancer risk. Animal tumor experiments performed by Ullrich et al [4], Alpen et al [5], and Grahn et al [6] were analyzed to estimate the DDREF. Human chromosome aberration experiments performed on a sample of astronauts within NASA were also available to estimate the DDREF. The LSS cohort results reported by BEIR VII were combined with the new radiobiology results using Bayesian methods.

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

The importance of inclusion of kinetic information in the extrapolation of high-to-low concentrations for human limit setting.

PubMed

Geraets, Liesbeth; Zeilmaker, Marco J; Bos, Peter M J

2018-01-05

Human health risk assessment of inhalation exposures generally includes a high-to-low concentration extrapolation. Although this is a common step in human risk assessment, it introduces various uncertainties. One of these uncertainties is related to the toxicokinetics. Many kinetic processes such as absorption, metabolism or excretion can be subject to saturation at high concentration levels. In the presence of saturable kinetic processes of the parent compound or metabolites, disproportionate increases in internal blood or tissue concentration relative to the external concentration administered may occur resulting in nonlinear kinetics. The present paper critically reviews human health risk assessment of inhalation exposure. More specific, it emphasizes the importance of kinetic information for the determination of a safe exposure in human risk assessment of inhalation exposures assessed by conversion from a high animal exposure to a low exposure in humans. For two selected chemicals, i.e. methyl tert-butyl ether and 1,2-dichloroethane, PBTK-modelling was used, for illustrative purposes, to follow the extrapolation and conversion steps as performed in existing risk assessments for these chemicals. Human health-based limit values based on an external dose metric without sufficient knowledge on kinetics might be too high to be sufficiently protective. Insight in the actual internal exposure, the toxic agent, the appropriate dose metric, and whether an effect is related to internal concentration or dose is important. Without this, application of assessment factors on an external dose metric and the conversion to continuous exposure results in an uncertain human health risk assessment of inhalation exposures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States

PubMed Central

Haseeb, MA

2015-01-01

Plague has been established in the western United States (US) since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86%) and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention. PMID:26713244

Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael; Haseeb, M A

2015-01-01

Plague has been established in the western United States (US) since 1900 following the West Coast introduction of commensal rodents infected with Yersinia pestis via early industrial shipping. Over the last century, plague ecology has transitioned through cycles of widespread human transmission, urban domestic transmission among commensal rodents, and ultimately settled into the predominantly sylvan foci that remain today where it is maintained alternatively by enzootic and epizootic transmission. While zoonotic transmission to humans is much less common in modern times, significant plague risk remains in parts of the western US. Moreover, risk to some threatened species that are part of the epizootic cycle can be quite substantive. This investigation attempted to predict the risk of plague across the western US by modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animals identified between 2000 and 2015. A Maxent machine learning algorithm was used to predict this niche based on climate, altitude, land cover, and the presence of an important enzootic species, Peromyscus maniculatus. This model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 86%) and identified areas of high risk in central Colorado, north-central New Mexico, and southwestern and northeastern California. The presence of P. maniculatus, altitude, precipitation during the driest and wettest quarters, and distance to artificial surfaces, all contributed substantively to maximizing the gain function. These findings add to the known landscape epidemiology and infection ecology of plague in the western US and may suggest locations of particular risk to be targeted for wild and domestic animal intervention.

How pharmacokinetic modeling could improve a risk assessment for manganese

EPA Science Inventory

The neurotoxicity of manganese (Mn) is well established, yet the risk assessment of Mn is made complex by certain enigmas. These include apparently greatertoxicity via inhalation compared to oral exposure and greater toxicity in humans compared to rats. In addition, until recentl...

Epithelial perturbation by inhaled chlorine: Multi-scale mechanistic modeling in rats and humans

EPA Science Inventory

Chlorine is a high-production volume, hazardous air pollutant and irritant gas of interest to homeland security. Thus, scenarios of interest for risk characterization range from acute high-level exposures to lower-level chronic exposures. Risk assessment approaches to estimate ...

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (CVD) IN GENETICALLY PREDISPOSED RATS

EPA Science Inventory

Rodent CVD models are increasingly used for understanding individual differences in susceptibility to environmental stressors such as air pollution. We characterized pathologies and a number of known human risk factors of CVD in genetically predisposed, male young adult Spontaneo...

Human health risk assessment of triclosan in land-applied biosolids.

PubMed

Verslycke, Tim; Mayfield, David B; Tabony, Jade A; Capdevielle, Marie; Slezak, Brian

2016-09-01

Triclosan (5-chloro-2-[2,4-dichlorophenoxy]-phenol) is an antimicrobial agent found in a variety of pharmaceutical and personal care products. Numerous studies have examined the occurrence and environmental fate of triclosan in wastewater, biosolids, biosolids-amended soils, and plants and organisms exposed to biosolid-amended soils. Triclosan has a propensity to adhere to organic carbon in biosolids and biosolid-amended soils. Land application of biosolids containing triclosan has the potential to contribute to multiple direct and indirect human health exposure pathways. To estimate exposures and human health risks from biosolid-borne triclosan, a risk assessment was conducted in general accordance with the methodology incorporated into the US Environmental Protection Agency's Part 503 biosolids rule. Human health exposures to biosolid-borne triclosan were estimated on the basis of published empirical data or modeled using upper-end environmental partitioning estimates. Similarly, a range of published triclosan human health toxicity values was evaluated. Margins of safety were estimated for 10 direct and indirect exposure pathways, both individually and combined. The present risk assessment found large margins of safety (>1000 to >100 000) for potential exposures to all pathways, even under the most conservative exposure and toxicity assumptions considered. The human health exposures and risks from biosolid-borne triclosan are concluded to be de minimis. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2358-2367. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

42 CFR § 512.411 - Quality measures and reporting for AMI model.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS EPISODE PAYMENT MODEL... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Quality measures and reporting for AMI model. Â... reporting for AMI model. (a) Required measures. (1) Hospital 30-Day, All-Cause, Risk-Standardized Mortality...

42 CFR § 512.412 - Quality measures and reporting for CABG model.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS EPISODE PAYMENT MODEL... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Quality measures and reporting for CABG model. Â... reporting for CABG model. (a) Required measures. (1) Hospital 30-Day, All-Cause, Risk-Standardized Mortality...

The concept of comparative information yield curves and its application to risk-based site characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Rubin, Yoram; Maxwell, Reed M.

2009-06-01

Defining rational and effective hydrogeological data acquisition strategies is of crucial importance as such efforts are always resource limited. Usually, strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on uncertainty. This paper presents an approach for determining site characterization needs on the basis of human health risk. The main challenge is in striking a balance between reduction in uncertainty in hydrogeological, behavioral, and physiological parameters. Striking this balance can provide clear guidance on setting priorities for data acquisition and for better estimating adverse health effects in humans. This paper addresses this challenge through theoretical developments and numerical simulation. A wide range of factors that affect site characterization needs are investigated, including the dimensions of the contaminant plume and additional length scales that characterize the transport problem, as well as the model of human health risk. The concept of comparative information yield curves is used for investigating the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in risk. Results show that characterization needs are dependent on the ratios between flow and transport scales within a risk-driven approach. Additionally, the results indicate that human health risk becomes less sensitive to hydrogeological measurements for large plumes. This indicates that under near-ergodic conditions, uncertainty reduction in human health risk may benefit from better understanding of the physiological component as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization.

Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Wright, Nicholas D.; Fagan, Elizabeth; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback. PMID:23844168

Influence of educational status and other variables on human immunodeficiency virus risk perception among military personnel: a large cohort finding.

PubMed

Essien, E James; Ogungbade, Gbadebo O; Ward, Doriel; Ekong, Ernest; Ross, Michael W; Meshack, Angela; Holmes, Laurens

2007-11-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk perception remains an effective determinant of HIV transmission. Although higher educational attainment has been associated with increased HIV risk perception, this predictor remains to be assessed among Nigerian military personnel (NMP). In a prospective cohort of 2,213 NMP, the effects of education and other factors on HIV risk perception were assessed at baseline by using the X2 statistic and unconditional logistic regression. There was an inverse correlation between higher educational attainment and HIV risk perception in the univariate model (prevalence odds ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.79). This association persisted after adjustment for relevant covariates in the multivariate model (prevalence odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.88). Similarly, there was a direct correlation between use of alcohol and marijuana and HIV risk perception (p < 0.05). In contrast, casual sex and gender were not statistically significantly associated with HIV risk perception (p > 0.05). This study indicates an inverse correlation between educational attainment and HIV risk perception, as well as a direct correlation between alcohol and marijuana use and HIV risk perception, among NMP. Therefore, HIV prevention interventions targeted at NMP need to include multiple factors that may affect risk perception regardless of the educational status of the participants.

The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

PubMed

Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

2012-06-01

Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A physiologically based in silico model for trans-2-hexenal detoxification and DNA adduct formation in human including interindividual variation indicates efficient detoxification and a negligible genotoxicity risk.

PubMed

Kiwamoto, R; Spenkelink, A; Rietjens, I M C M; Punt, A

2013-09-01

A number of α,β-unsaturated aldehydes are present in food both as natural constituents and as flavouring agents. Their reaction with DNA due to their electrophilic α,β-unsaturated aldehyde moiety may result in genotoxicity as observed in some in vitro models, thereby raising a safety concern. A question that remains is whether in vivo detoxification would be efficient enough to prevent DNA adduct formation and genotoxicity. In this study, a human physiologically based kinetic/dynamic (PBK/D) model of trans-2-hexenal (2-hexenal), a selected model α,β-unsaturated aldehyde, was developed to examine dose-dependent detoxification and DNA adduct formation in humans upon dietary exposure. The kinetic model parameters for detoxification were quantified using relevant pooled human tissue fractions as well as tissue fractions from 11 different individual subjects. In addition, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed so that the impact of interindividual variation in 2-hexenal detoxification on the DNA adduct formation in the population as a whole could be examined. The PBK/D model revealed that DNA adduct formation due to 2-hexenal exposure was 0.039 adducts/10⁸ nucleotides (nt) at the estimated average 2-hexenal dietary intake (0.04 mg 2-hexenal/kg bw) and 0.18 adducts/10⁸ nt at the 95th percentile of the dietary intake (0.178 mg 2-hexenal/kg bw) in the most sensitive people. These levels are three orders of magnitude lower than natural background DNA adduct levels that have been reported in disease-free humans (6.8-110 adducts/10⁸ nt), suggesting that the genotoxicity risk for the human population at realistic dietary daily intakes of 2-hexenal may be negligible.

Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China.

PubMed

Yin, Lu; Zhao, Yuejuan; Peratikos, Meridith Blevins; Song, Liang; Zhang, Xiangjun; Xin, Ruolei; Sun, Zheya; Xu, Yunan; Zhang, Li; Hu, Yifei; Hao, Chun; Ruan, Yuhua; Shao, Yiming; Vermund, Sten H; Qian, Han-Zhu

2018-05-21

Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full model) and 0.71 (reduced-form model). Non-Beijing residence, short-term living in Beijing, illegal drug use, multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal sex, inconsistent condom use, alcohol consumption before sex, and syphilis infection were the strongest predictors of HIV infection. Discriminating higher-risk MSM for targeted HIV prevention programming using a validated risk score could improve the efficiency of resource deployment for educational and risk reduction programs. A valid risk score can also identify higher risk persons into prevention and vaccine clinical trials, which would improve trial cost-efficiency.

Transcriptional Profiling Reveals a Common Metabolic Program for Tumorigenicity in High-Risk Human Neuroblastoma and Mouse Neuroblastoma Sphere-Forming Cells

PubMed Central

Liu, Mengling; Xia, Yingfeng; Ding, Jane; Ye, Bingwei; Zhao, Erhu; Choi, Jeong-Hyeon; Alptekin, Ahmet; Yan, Chunhong; Dong, Zheng; Huang, Shuang; Yang, Liqun; Cui, Hongjuan; Zha, Yunhong; Ding, Han-Fei

2017-01-01

Summary High-risk neuroblastoma remains one of the deadliest childhood cancers. Identification of metabolic pathways that drive or maintain high-risk neuroblastoma may open new avenues of therapeutic interventions. Here we report the isolation and propagation of neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells with self-renewal and differentiation potential from tumors of TH-MYCN mice, an animal model of high-risk neuroblastoma with MYCN amplification. Transcriptional profiling reveals that mouse neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells acquire a metabolic program characterized by transcriptional activation of the cholesterol and serine-glycine synthesis pathways, primarily as a result of increased expression of sterol regulatory element-binding factors and Atf4, respectively. This metabolic reprogramming is recapitulated in high-risk human neuroblastomas and is prognostic for poor clinical outcome. Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of the metabolic program markedly decreases the growth and tumorigenicity of both mouse neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells and human neuroblastoma cell lines. These findings suggest a therapeutic strategy for targeting the metabolic program of high-risk neuroblastoma. PMID:27705805

Transcriptional Profiling Reveals a Common Metabolic Program in High-Risk Human Neuroblastoma and Mouse Neuroblastoma Sphere-Forming Cells.

PubMed

Liu, Mengling; Xia, Yingfeng; Ding, Jane; Ye, Bingwei; Zhao, Erhu; Choi, Jeong-Hyeon; Alptekin, Ahmet; Yan, Chunhong; Dong, Zheng; Huang, Shuang; Yang, Liqun; Cui, Hongjuan; Zha, Yunhong; Ding, Han-Fei

2016-10-04

High-risk neuroblastoma remains one of the deadliest childhood cancers. Identification of metabolic pathways that drive or maintain high-risk neuroblastoma may open new avenues of therapeutic interventions. Here, we report the isolation and propagation of neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells with self-renewal and differentiation potential from tumors of the TH-MYCN mouse, an animal model of high-risk neuroblastoma with MYCN amplification. Transcriptional profiling reveals that mouse neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells acquire a metabolic program characterized by transcriptional activation of the cholesterol and serine-glycine synthesis pathways, primarily as a result of increased expression of sterol regulatory element binding factors and Atf4, respectively. This metabolic reprogramming is recapitulated in high-risk human neuroblastomas and is prognostic for poor clinical outcome. Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of the metabolic program markedly decreases the growth and tumorigenicity of both mouse neuroblastoma sphere-forming cells and human neuroblastoma cell lines. These findings suggest a therapeutic strategy for targeting the metabolic program of high-risk neuroblastoma. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An allometric pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics model for BI 893923, a novel IGF-1 receptor inhibitor.

PubMed

Titze, Melanie I; Schaaf, Otmar; Hofmann, Marco H; Sanderson, Michael P; Zahn, Stephan K; Quant, Jens; Lehr, Thorsten

2017-03-01

BI 893923 is a novel IGF1R/INSR inhibitor with promising anti-tumor efficacy. Dose-limiting hyperglycemia has been observed for other IGF1R/INSR inhibitors in clinical trials. To counterbalance anti-tumor efficacy with the risk of hyperglycemia and to determine the therapeutic window, we aimed to develop a translational pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics model for BI 893923. This aimed to translate pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics from animals to humans by an allometrically scaled semi-mechanistic model. Model development was based on a previously published PK/PD model for BI 893923 in mice (Titze et al., Cancer Chemother Pharmacol 77:1303-1314, 13). PK and blood glucose parameters were scaled by allometric principles using body weight as a scaling factor along with an estimation of the parameter exponents. Biomarker and tumor growth parameters were extrapolated from mouse to human using the body weight ratio as scaling factor. The allometric PK/PD model successfully described BI 893923 pharmacokinetics and blood glucose across mouse, rat, dog, minipig, and monkey. BI 893923 human exposure as well as blood glucose and tumor growth were predicted and compared for different dosing scenarios. A comprehensive risk-benefit analysis was conducted by determining the net clinical benefit for each schedule. An oral dose of 2750 mg BI 893923 divided in three evenly distributed doses was identified as the optimal human dosing regimen, predicting a tumor growth inhibition of 90.4% without associated hyperglycemia. Our model supported human therapeutic dose estimation by rationalizing the optimal efficacious dosing regimen with minimal undesired effects. This modeling approach may be useful for PK/PD scaling of other IGF1R/INSR inhibitors.

High Throughput Exposure Prioritization of Chemicals Using a Screening-Level Probabilistic SHEDS-Lite Exposure Model

EPA Science Inventory

These novel modeling approaches for screening, evaluating and classifying chemicals based on the potential for biologically-relevant human exposures will inform toxicity testing and prioritization for chemical risk assessment. The new modeling approach is derived from the Stocha...

Relating Data and Models to Characterize Parameter and Prediction Uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

Applying PBPK models in risk analysis requires that we realistically assess the uncertainty of relevant model predictions in as quantitative a way as possible. The reality of human variability may add a confusing feature to the overall uncertainty assessment, as uncertainty and v...

STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF SUBGRID POLLUTANT VARIABILITY IN CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes a tool for investigating and describing fine scale spatial variability in model concentration fields with the goal of improving the use of air quality models for driving exposure modeling to assess human risk to hazardous air pollutants or air toxics. Region...

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Modeling risk of occupational zoonotic influenza infection in swine workers.

PubMed

Paccha, Blanca; Jones, Rachael M; Gibbs, Shawn; Kane, Michael J; Torremorell, Montserrat; Neira-Ramirez, Victor; Rabinowitz, Peter M

2016-08-01

Zoonotic transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) between swine and workers in swine production facilities may play a role in the emergence of novel influenza strains with pandemic potential. Guidelines to prevent transmission of influenza to swine workers have been developed but there is a need for evidence-based decision-making about protective measures such as respiratory protection. A mathematical model was applied to estimate the risk of occupational IAV exposure to swine workers by contact and airborne transmission, and to evaluate the use of respirators to reduce transmission.  The Markov model was used to simulate the transport and exposure of workers to IAV in a swine facility. A dose-response function was used to estimate the risk of infection. This approach is similar to methods previously used to estimate the risk of infection in human health care settings. This study uses concentration of virus in air from field measurements collected during outbreaks of influenza in commercial swine facilities, and analyzed by polymerase chain reaction.  It was found that spending 25 min working in a barn during an influenza outbreak in a swine herd could be sufficient to cause zoonotic infection in a worker. However, this risk estimate was sensitive to estimates of viral infectivity to humans. Wearing an excellent fitting N95 respirator reduced this risk, but with high aerosol levels the predicted risk of infection remained high under certain assumptions.  The results of this analysis indicate that under the conditions studied, swine workers are at risk of zoonotic influenza infection. The use of an N95 respirator could reduce such risk. These findings have implications for risk assessment and preventive programs targeting swine workers. The exact level of risk remains uncertain, since our model may have overestimated the viability or infectivity of IAV. Additionally, the potential for partial immunity in swine workers associated with repeated low-dose exposures or from previous infection with other influenza strains was not considered. Further studies should explore these uncertainties.

Modeling Human Exposure Risk to Nontuberculous Mycobacteria in Central North Carolina

EPA Science Inventory

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are a broad group of soil-and water-borne bacteria. Some species are pathogenic and may cause serious infections in the lungs, soft tissues, bones and skin. Infections in humans are associated with environmental exposures to contaminated soil, ae...

Tobacco Smoke Exposure and Altered Nasal Responses to Live Attenuated Influenza Virus

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Epidemiologic evidence links tobacco smoke and increased risk for influenza in humans, but the specific host defense pathways involved are unclear. Objective. Develop a model to examine influenza-induced innate immune responses in humans and test the hypothesis that ...

Modeling Deposition of Inhaled Particles

EPA Science Inventory

The mathematical modeling of the deposition and distribution of inhaled aerosols within human lungs is an invaluable tool in predicting both the health risks associated with inhaled environmental aerosols and the therapeutic dose delivered by inhaled pharmacological drugs. Howeve...

Dissecting Alzheimer disease in Down syndrome using mouse models

PubMed Central

Choong, Xun Yu; Tosh, Justin L.; Pulford, Laura J.; Fisher, Elizabeth M. C.

2015-01-01

Down syndrome (DS) is a common genetic condition caused by the presence of three copies of chromosome 21 (trisomy 21). This greatly increases the risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but although virtually all people with DS have AD neuropathology by 40 years of age, not all develop dementia. To dissect the genetic contribution of trisomy 21 to DS phenotypes including those relevant to AD, a range of DS mouse models has been generated which are trisomic for chromosome segments syntenic to human chromosome 21. Here, we consider key characteristics of human AD in DS (AD-DS), and our current state of knowledge on related phenotypes in AD and DS mouse models. We go on to review important features needed in future models of AD-DS, to understand this type of dementia and so highlight pathogenic mechanisms relevant to all populations at risk of AD. PMID:26528151

Dissecting Alzheimer disease in Down syndrome using mouse models.

PubMed

Choong, Xun Yu; Tosh, Justin L; Pulford, Laura J; Fisher, Elizabeth M C

2015-01-01

Down syndrome (DS) is a common genetic condition caused by the presence of three copies of chromosome 21 (trisomy 21). This greatly increases the risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but although virtually all people with DS have AD neuropathology by 40 years of age, not all develop dementia. To dissect the genetic contribution of trisomy 21 to DS phenotypes including those relevant to AD, a range of DS mouse models has been generated which are trisomic for chromosome segments syntenic to human chromosome 21. Here, we consider key characteristics of human AD in DS (AD-DS), and our current state of knowledge on related phenotypes in AD and DS mouse models. We go on to review important features needed in future models of AD-DS, to understand this type of dementia and so highlight pathogenic mechanisms relevant to all populations at risk of AD.

Differential Gene Expression in Explanted Human Retinal Pigment Epithelial Cells 24-Hours Post-Exposure to 532 nm, 3.0 ns Pulsed Laser Light and 1064 nm, 170 ps Pulsed Laser Light 12-Hours Post-Exposure: Results Compendium

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

Additionally, we offer 3 conceptual cartoons outlining our vision for the future progres of laser bioeffects research, metabonomic risk assessment...future progress of laser bioeffects research, metabonomic risk assessment modeling and knowledge building from laser bioeffects data. BACKGROUND In the...our concepts of future laser bioeffects research directions (Figure 5), a metabonomic risk assessment model of laser tissue interaction (Figure 6

EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC AND PHARMACODYNAMIC ( PBPK/PD ) MODEL FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK

EPA Science Inventory

The Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) is a PBPK/PD modeling system that was developed by EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). The ERDEM framework provides the flexibility either to use existing models and to build new PBPK and PBPK/PD models to address...

Risk-Return Relationship in a Complex Adaptive System

PubMed Central

Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics. PMID:22479416

Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

PubMed

Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

Multi-body dynamics modelling of seated human body under exposure to whole-body vibration.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Takuya; Nakai, Kazuma; Tamaoki, Gen

2005-07-01

In vehicle systems occupational drivers might expose themselves to vibration for a long time. This may cause illness of the spine such as chronic lumbago or low back pain. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the influence of vibration to the spinal column and to make up appropriate guidelines or counter plans. In ISO2631-1 or ISO2631-5 assessment of vibration effects to human in the view of adverse-health effect was already presented. However, it is necessary to carry out further research to understand the effect of vibration to human body to examine their validity and to prepare for the future revision. This paper shows the detail measurement of human response to vibration, and the modelling of the seated human body for the assessment of the vibration risk. The vibration transmissibilities from the seat surface to the spinal column and to the head are measured during the exposure to vertical excitation. The modal paramters of seated subject are extracted in order to understand the dominant natural modes. For the evaluation of adverse-health effect the multi-body modelling of the spinal column is introduced. A simplified model having 10 DOFs is counstructed so that the transmissibilities of the model fit to those of experiment. The transient response analysis is illustrated when a half-sine input is applied. The relative displacements of vertebrae are evaluated, which can be a basis for the assessment of vibration risk. It is suggested that the multi-body dynamic model is used to evaluate the vibration effect to the spinal column for seated subjects.

Animal and human dose-response models for Brucella species.

PubMed

Teske, Sondra S; Huang, Yin; Tamrakar, Sushil B; Bartrand, Timothy A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

2011-10-01

Human Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonotic diseases worldwide. Disease transmission often occurs through the handling of domestic livestock, as well as ingestion of unpasteurized milk and cheese, but can have enhanced infectivity if aerosolized. Because there is no human vaccine available, rising concerns about the threat of Brucellosis to human health and its inclusion in the Center for Disease Control's Category B Bioterrorism/Select Agent List make a better understanding of the dose-response relationship of this microbe necessary. Through an extensive peer-reviewed literature search, candidate dose-response data were appraised so as to surpass certain standards for quality. The statistical programming language, "R," was used to compute the maximum likelihood estimation to fit two models, the exponential and the approximate beta-Poisson (widely used for quantitative risk assessment) to dose-response data. Dose-response models were generated for prevalent species of Brucella: Br. suis, Br. melitensis, and Br. abortus. Dose-response models were created for aerosolized Br. suis exposure to guinea pigs from pooled studies. A parallel model for guinea pigs inoculated through both aerosol and subcutaneous routes with Br. melitensis showed that the median infectious dose corresponded to a 30 colony-forming units (CFU) dose of Br. suis, much less than the N(50) dose of about 94 CFU for Br. melitensis organisms. When Br. melitensis was tested subcutaneously on mice, the N(50) dose was higher, 1,840 CFU. A dose-response model was constructed from pooled data for mice, rhesus macaques, and humans inoculated through three routes (subcutaneously/aerosol/intradermally) with Br. melitensis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Aquatic models, genomics and chemical risk management.

PubMed

Cheng, Keith C; Hinton, David E; Mattingly, Carolyn J; Planchart, Antonio

2012-01-01

The 5th Aquatic Animal Models for Human Disease meeting follows four previous meetings (Nairn et al., 2001; Schmale, 2004; Schmale et al., 2007; Hinton et al., 2009) in which advances in aquatic animal models for human disease research were reported, and community discussion of future direction was pursued. At this meeting, discussion at a workshop entitled Bioinformatics and Computational Biology with Web-based Resources (20 September 2010) led to an important conclusion: Aquatic model research using feral and experimental fish, in combination with web-based access to annotated anatomical atlases and toxicological databases, yields data that advance our understanding of human gene function, and can be used to facilitate environmental management and drug development. We propose here that the effects of genes and environment are best appreciated within an anatomical context - the specifically affected cells and organs in the whole animal. We envision the use of automated, whole-animal imaging at cellular resolution and computational morphometry facilitated by high-performance computing and automated entry into toxicological databases, as anchors for genetic and toxicological data, and as connectors between human and model system data. These principles should be applied to both laboratory and feral fish populations, which have been virtually irreplaceable sentinals for environmental contamination that results in human morbidity and mortality. We conclude that automation, database generation, and web-based accessibility, facilitated by genomic/transcriptomic data and high-performance and cloud computing, will potentiate the unique and potentially key roles that aquatic models play in advancing systems biology, drug development, and environmental risk management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Example Application of a Pilot Model for the Biogeochemical Cycling of Mercury in Watersheds: SERAFM-NPS

EPA Science Inventory

Mercury is a developmental neurotoxicant, ubiquitous in the environment, existing both naturally and through anthropogenic additions, resulting in human and ecological exposure risks primarily via consumption of mercury contaminated fish tissue. To better understand the risk ass...

Cognitive Phenotype of Velocardiofacial Syndrome: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Furniss, Frederick; Biswas, Asit B.; Gumber, Rohit; Singh, Niraj

2011-01-01

The behavioural phenotype of velocardiofacial syndrome (VCFS), one of the most common human multiple anomaly syndromes, includes developmental disabilities, frequently including intellectual disability (ID) and high risk of diagnosis of psychotic disorders including schizophrenia. VCFS may offer a model of the relationship between ID and risk of…

Predicting microbial water quality with models: over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Determining the microbial quality of recreational, irrigation and shellfish-harvesting waters is important to ensure compliance with health-related standards and associated legislation. Animal faeces represent a significant human health risk, and concentrations of fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) pr...

EXPOSURE-DOSE-RESPONSE MODELING OF THE NEUROTOXIC EFFECTS OF ORGANIC SOLVENTS.

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments based on exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are hampered by the complexities of exposure scenarios, a lack of data regarding the mode of action of the VOCs, and uncertainties about extrapolating from animal data to human health risk. We are developing ...

Standard setting processes and regulations for environmental contaminants in drinking water: State versus federal needs and viewpoints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sidhu, K.S.

1991-06-01

The primary objective of a standard setting process is to arrive at a drinking water concentration at which exposure to a contaminant would result in no known or potential adverse health effect on human health. The drinking water standards also serve as guidelines to prevent pollution of water sources and may be applicable in some cases as regulatory remediation levels. The risk assessment methods along with various decision making parameters are used to establish drinking water standards. For carcinogens classified in Groups A and B by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) the standards are set by using nonthresholdmore » cancer risk models. The linearized multistage model is commonly used for computation of potency factors for carcinogenic contaminants. The acceptable excess risk level may vary from 10(-6) to 10(-4). For noncarcinogens, a threshold model approach based on application of an uncertainty factor is used to arrive at a reference dose (RfD). The RfD approach may also be used for carcinogens classified in Group C by the USEPA. The RfD approach with an additional uncertainty factory of 10 for carcinogenicity has been applied in the formulation of risk assessment for Group C carcinogens. The assumptions commonly used in arriving at drinking water standards are human life expectancy, 70 years; average human body weight, 70 kg; human daily drinking water consumption, 2 liters; and contribution of exposure to the contaminant from drinking water (expressed as a part of the total environmental exposure), 20%. Currently, there are over 80 USEPA existing or proposed primary standards for organic and inorganic contaminants in drinking water. Some of the state versus federal needs and viewpoints are discussed.« less

Investigation and health risk assessment of heavy metals in soils from partial areas of Daye city, china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M. S.; Li, F.; Zhang, J. D.; Lin, S. Y.; Zhuang, Z. Y.; Wu, Z. X.

2017-05-01

Heavy metals (Cu and Pb) in four sampling sites from parts areas of Daye city were collected. Concentrations of Cu and Pb in soils in sampling sites were detected, the enrichment degree was measured by geo-accumulation index, and the human health risks were calculated by applying the human health risk assessment model. The results show that the concentrations of Cu and Pb of soils in some areas are much more than Daye City, Hubei Province soil background value. The concentration of Cu and Pb in Xiaganwan soil sample has a higher value and the concentration of Cu (110.17 mg·kg-1) exceeds the soil environmental quality standards. The values of Igeo of Cu and Pb in the soil in some areas of Daye city are 1 except Xiaganwan sample is 2. For human health risk assessment, the non-cancer risk of Cu in three routes of exposure is less than Pb. The non-cancer risk both adults and children are less than 1 and show a general trend of HQ in oral ingestion exposure pathway > HQ in inhalation exposure pathway>HQ in skin contact exposure pathway. It will not cause significant non-carcinogenic health effects on the human body.

The emergence of human-evolutionary medical genomics

PubMed Central

Crespi, Bernard J

2011-01-01

In this review, I describe how evolutionary genomics is uniquely suited to spearhead advances in understanding human disease risk, owing to the privileged position of genes as fundamental causes of phenotypic variation, and the ability of population genetic and phylogenetic methods to robustly infer processes of natural selection, drift, and mutation from genetic variation at the levels of family, population, species, and clade. I first provide an overview of models for the origins and maintenance of genetically based disease risk in humans. I then discuss how analyses of genetic disease risk can be dovetailed with studies of positive and balancing selection, to evaluate the degree to which the ‘genes that make us human’ also represent the genes that mediate risk of polygenic disease. Finally, I present four basic principles for the nascent field of human evolutionary medical genomics, each of which represents a process that is nonintuitive from a proximate perspective. Joint consideration of these principles compels novel forms of interdisciplinary analyses, most notably studies that (i) analyze tradeoffs at the level of molecular genetics, and (ii) identify genetic variants that are derived in the human lineage or in specific populations, and then compare individuals with derived versus ancestral alleles. PMID:25567974

Dynamics of high-risk nonvaccine human papillomavirus types after actual vaccination scheme.

PubMed

Peralta, Raúl; Vargas-De-León, Cruz; Cabrera, Augusto; Miramontes, Pedro

2014-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified as the main etiological factor in the developing of cervical cancer (CC). This finding has propitiated the development of vaccines that help to prevent the HPVs 16 and 18 infection. Both genotypes are associated with 70% of CC worldwide. In the present study, we aimed to determine the emergence of high-risk nonvaccine HPV after actual vaccination scheme to estimate the impact of the current HPV vaccines. A SIR-type model was used to study the HPV dynamics after vaccination. According to the results, our model indicates that the application of the vaccine reduces infection by target or vaccine genotypes as expected. However, numerical simulations of the model suggest the presence of the phenomenon called vaccine-induced pathogen strain replacement. Here, we report the following replacement mechanism: if the effectiveness of cross-protective immunity is not larger than the effectiveness of the vaccine, then the high-risk nonvaccine genotypes emerge. In this scenario, further studies of infection dispersion by HPV are necessary to ascertain the real impact of the current vaccines, primarily because of the different high-risk HPV types that are found in CC.

Improved physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for oral exposures to chromium in mice, rats, and humans to address temporal variation and sensitive populations.

PubMed

Kirman, C R; Suh, M; Proctor, D M; Hays, S M

2017-06-15

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] in mice, rats, and humans developed previously (Kirman et al., 2012, 2013), was updated to reflect an improved understanding of the toxicokinetics of the gastrointestinal tract following oral exposures. Improvements were made to: (1) the reduction model, which describes the pH-dependent reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in the gastrointestinal tract under both fasted and fed states; (2) drinking water pattern simulations, to better describe dosimetry in rodents under the conditions of the NTP cancer bioassay; and (3) parameterize the model to characterize potentially sensitive human populations. Important species differences, sources of non-linear toxicokinetics, and human variation are identified and discussed within the context of human health risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational identification of gene–social environment interaction at the human IL6 locus

PubMed Central

Cole, Steven W.; Arevalo, Jesusa M. G.; Takahashi, Rie; Sloan, Erica K.; Lutgendorf, Susan K.; Sood, Anil K.; Sheridan, John F.; Seeman, Teresa E.

2010-01-01

To identify genetic factors that interact with social environments to impact human health, we used a bioinformatic strategy that couples expression array–based detection of environmentally responsive transcription factors with in silico discovery of regulatory polymorphisms to predict genetic loci that modulate transcriptional responses to stressful environments. Tests of one predicted interaction locus in the human IL6 promoter (SNP rs1800795) verified that it modulates transcriptional response to β-adrenergic activation of the GATA1 transcription factor in vitro. In vivo validation studies confirmed links between adverse social conditions and increased transcription of GATA1 target genes in primary neural, immune, and cancer cells. Epidemiologic analyses verified the health significance of those molecular interactions by documenting increased 10-year mortality risk associated with late-life depressive symptoms that occurred solely for homozygous carriers of the GATA1-sensitive G allele of rs1800795. Gating of depression-related mortality risk by IL6 genotype pertained only to inflammation-related causes of death and was associated with increased chronic inflammation as indexed by plasma C-reactive protein. Computational modeling of molecular interactions, in vitro biochemical analyses, in vivo animal modeling, and human molecular epidemiologic analyses thus converge in identifying β-adrenergic activation of GATA1 as a molecular pathway by which social adversity can alter human health risk selectively depending on individual genetic status at the IL6 locus. PMID:20176930

Escherichia coli isolates from commercial chicken meat and eggs cause sepsis, meningitis and urinary tract infection in rodent models of human infections.

PubMed

Mellata, M; Johnson, J R; Curtiss, R

2018-02-01

The zoonotic potential of Escherichia coli from chicken-source food products is important to define for public health purposes. Previously, genotypic and phenotypic screening of E. coli isolates from commercial chicken meat and shell eggs identified some E. coli strains that by molecular criteria resembled human-source extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC). Here, to clarify the zoonotic risk of such chicken-source E. coli, we compared selected E. coli isolates from chicken meat and eggs, stratified by molecularly defined ExPEC status, to human-source ExPEC and to laboratory E. coli for virulence in rodent models of sepsis, meningitis and UTI, and evaluated whether specific bacterial characteristics predict experimental virulence. Multiple chicken-source E. coli resembled human-source ExPEC in their ability to cause one or multiple different ExPEC-associated infections. Swimming ability corresponded with urovirulence, K1 capsule corresponded with ability to cause neonatal meningitis, and biofilm formation in urine corresponded with ability to cause sepsis. In contrast, molecularly defined ExPEC status and individual genotypic traits were uncorrelated with ability to cause sepsis, and neither complement sensitivity nor growth in human urine corresponded with virulence in any infection model. These findings establish that chicken-derived food products contain E. coli strains that, in rodent models of multiple human-associated ExPEC infections, are able to cause disease comparably to human-source E. coli clinical isolates, which suggests that they may pose a significant food safety threat. Further study is needed to define the level of risk they pose to human health, which if appreciable would justify efforts to monitor for and reduce or eliminate them. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Modeling micropollutant fate at the catchment scale: from science to practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seuntjens, P.; Desmet, N.; Holvoet, K.; van Griensven, A.; van Hoey, S.; Tang, X. Y.; Nopens, I.

2009-04-01

Micropollutants, such as pesticides, personal care products, veterinary and human pharmaceuticals, pose a possible threat to human and ecological health. Humans and ecosystems may be exposed to these chemicals via the water system. Catchment models can be used to optimise management in view of risk reduction of the chemicals. Along the trajectory of science to practice a number of catchment models are available that simulate the fate and transport of micropollutants. They range from physically-based fully-coupled soil, groundwater, and surface water models, over empirical management models, to purely statistical database-driven models. For assessing effects on ecosystems, models need to be able to predict the observed highly dynamic behaviour of pesticide concentrations in the surface water, since adverse effects will be determined by the number, intensity and frequency of ecological threshold exceedances. For assessing effects on humans, models need to predict the dilution between areas where the pesticide is released and the location of the drinking water intake, sometimes tens or hundreds of kilometres further downstream. We adapted management models to simulate dynamic pesticide behaviour and fate at the catchment scale. The models were also used to illustrate the effects of specific management options on risk reduction and to derive the dominant sources of pollutants in a catchment area. The results show that the concentrations of pesticides in river systems are attributed to (1) fast flow over and in soils or pavements, and to (2) point sources. Therefore, future models for improved estimation of chemical fate at the catchment scale need a combination of stochastic source characterisation, higher spatial resolution and reduced complexity of the mathematical description of fast flow processes. This will be illustrated by recent developments in model simplification coupled to increased spatial detail.

Human papillomavirus infection and immunohistochemical p16(INK4a) expression as predictors of outcome in penile squamous cell carcinomas.

PubMed

Bezerra, Stephania M; Chaux, Alcides; Ball, Mark W; Faraj, Sheila F; Munari, Enrico; Gonzalez-Roibon, Nilda; Sharma, Rajni; Bivalacqua, Trinity J; Burnett, Arthur L; Netto, George J

2015-04-01

Approximately 50% of penile squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) are associated with high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection. We evaluated the correlation of p16(INK4a) expression and HR-HPV with clinicopathological features and outcome in a cohort of patients with penile SCC. Two tissue microarrays were constructed from 53 invasive penile SCC at our hospital. p16(INK4a) expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry (CINtec Kit). High-risk human papillomavirus status was assessed by in situ hybridization (INFORM HPV III family 16 probe B cocktail). High-risk human papillomavirus was detected in 8 cases (15%), and p16(INK4a) overexpression was found in 23 cases (44%). Both markers showed a significant association with histologic subtype (P = .017 and P = .01, respectively) and lymphovascular invasion (P = .015 and P = .015, respectively). Regarding outcome analyses, neither HPV infection nor p16(INK4a) overexpression significantly predicted overall survival or cancer-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards regression model. High-risk human papillomavirus positivity and p16(INK4a) overexpression were significantly associated with histologic subtype and presence of lymphovascular invasion. Human papillomavirus status was not predictive of outcome in our cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catchment scale assessment of risk posed by traffic generated heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; McGree, James; Liu, An; Deilami, Kaveh; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-10-01

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants present in urban stormwater. Consequently, urban stormwater reuse is constrained due to the human health risk posed by these pollutants. This study developed a scientifically robust approach to assess the risk to human health posed by HMs and PAHs in urban stormwater in order to enhance its reuse. Accordingly, an innovative methodology was created consisting of four stages: quantification of traffic and land use parameters; estimation of pollutant concentrations for model development; risk assessment, and risk map presentation. This methodology will contribute to catchment scale assessment of the risk associated with urban stormwater and for risk mitigation. The risk map developed provides a simple and efficient approach to identify the critical areas within a large catchment. The study also found that heavy molecular weight PAHs (PAHs with 5-6 benzene rings) in urban stormwater pose higher risk to human health compared to light molecular PAHs (PAHs with 2-4 benzene rings). These outcomes will facilitate the development of practical approaches for applying appropriate mitigation measures for the safe management of urban stormwater pollution and for the identification of enhanced reuse opportunities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leptospirosis disease mapping with standardized morbidity ratio and Poisson-Gamma model: An analysis of Leptospirosis disease in Kelantan, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che Awang, Aznida; Azah Samat, Nor

2017-09-01

Leptospirosis is a disease caused by the infection of pathogenic species from the genus of Leptospira. Human can be infected by the leptospirosis from direct or indirect exposure to the urine of infected animals. The excretion of urine from the animal host that carries pathogenic Leptospira causes the soil or water to be contaminated. Therefore, people can become infected when they are exposed to contaminated soil and water by cut on the skin as well as open wound. It also can enter the human body by mucous membrane such nose, eyes and mouth, for example by splashing contaminated water or urine into the eyes or swallowing contaminated water or food. Currently, there is no vaccine available for the prevention or treatment of leptospirosis disease but this disease can be treated if it is diagnosed early to avoid any complication. The disease risk mapping is important in a way to control and prevention of disease. Using a good choice of statistical model will produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for leptospirosis disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method and Poisson-gamma model, which we then applied to leptospirosis data of Kelantan, Malaysia. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. The result shows that the second method Poisson-gamma model produces better relative risk estimates compared to the SMR method. This is because the Poisson-gamma model can overcome the drawback of SMR where the relative risk will become zero when there is no observed leptospirosis case in certain regions. However, the Poisson-gamma model also faced problems where the covariate adjustment for this model is difficult and no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in neighbouring areas. The problems of this model have motivated many researchers to introduce other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

A Review of the Molecular Mechanisms of Chemically-Induced Neoplasia in Rat and Mouse Models in National Toxicology Program Bioassays and Their Relevance to Human Cancer

PubMed Central

Hoenerhoff, Mark J.; Hong, Hue Hua; Ton, Tai-Vu; Lahousse, Stephanie A.; Sills, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Tumor response in the B6C3F1 mouse, F344 rat, and other animal models following exposure to various compounds provides evidence that people exposed to these or similar compounds may be at risk for developing cancer. Although tumors in rodents and humans are often morphologically similar, underlying mechanisms of tumorigenesis are often unknown and may be different between the species. Therefore, the relevance of an animal tumor response to human health would be better determined if the molecular pathogenesis were understood. The underlying molecular mechanisms leading to carcinogenesis are complex and involve multiple genetic and epigenetic events and other factors. To address the molecular pathogenesis of environmental carcinogens, we examine rodent tumors (e.g., lung, colon, mammary gland, skin, brain, mesothelioma) for alterations in cancer genes and epigenetic events that are associated with human cancer. Our NTP studies have identified several genetic alterations in chemically induced rodent neoplasms that are important in human cancer. Identification of such alterations in rodent models of chemical carcinogenesis caused by exposure to environmental contaminants, occupational chemicals, and other compounds lends further support that they are of potential human health risk. These studies also emphasize the importance of molecular evaluation of chemically induced rodent tumors for providing greater public health significance for NTP evaluated compounds. PMID:19846892

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-12-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Denguemore » and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.« less

Increased COX-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells of high mammographic density tissues and in a xenograft model of mammographic density.

PubMed

Chew, G L; Huo, C W; Huang, D; Hill, P; Cawson, J; Frazer, H; Hopper, J L; Haviv, I; Henderson, M A; Britt, K; Thompson, E W

2015-08-01

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index is one of the strongest known risk factors for breast cancer. Given the high attributable risk of MD for breast cancer, chemoprevention with a safe and available agent that reduces MD and breast cancer risk would be beneficial. Cox-2 has been implicated in MD-related breast cancer risk, and was increased in stromal cells in high MD tissues in one study. Our study assessed differential Cox-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells in paired samples of high and low MD human breast tissue, and in a validated xenograft biochamber model of MD. We also examined the effects of endocrine treatment upon Cox-2 expression in high and low MD tissues in the MD xenograft model. Paired high and low MD human breast tissue samples were immunostained for Cox-2, then assessed for differential expression and staining intensity in epithelial and stromal cells. High and low MD human breast tissues were separately maintained in biochambers in mice treated with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo implants, then assessed for percentage Cox-2 staining in epithelial and stromal cells. Percentage Cox-2 staining was greater for both epithelial (p = 0.01) and stromal cells (p < 0.0001) of high compared with low MD breast tissues. In high MD biochamber tissues, percentage Cox-2 staining was greater in stromal cells of oestrogen-treated versus placebo-treated tissues (p = 0.05).

Cumulative effects of antiandrogenic chemical mixtures and their relevance to human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Howdeshell, Kembra L; Hotchkiss, Andrew K; Gray, L Earl

2017-03-01

Toxicological studies of defined chemical mixtures assist human health risk assessment by establishing how chemicals interact with one another to induce an effect. This paper reviews how antiandrogenic chemical mixtures can alter reproductive tract development in rats with a focus on the reproductive toxicant phthalates. The reviewed studies compare observed mixture data to mathematical mixture model predictions based on dose addition or response addition to determine how the individual chemicals in a mixture interact (e.g., additive, greater, or less than additive). Phthalate mixtures were observed to act in a dose additive manner based on the relative potency of the individual phthalates to suppress fetal testosterone production. Similar dose additive effects have been reported for mixtures of phthalates with antiandrogenic pesticides of differing mechanisms of action. Overall, data from these phthalate experiments in rats can be used in conjunction with human biomonitoring data to determine individual hazard indices, and recent cumulative risk assessments in humans indicate an excess risk to antiandrogenic chemical mixtures that include phthalates only or phthalates in combination with other antiandrogenic chemicals. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

PubMed

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

Development of a Multiroute Human PBPK Model for Bromodichloromethane (BDCM)

EPA Science Inventory

BDCM is an animal carcinogen and developmental toxicant. Due to its presence as a disinfection byproduct in finished drinking water, BDCM may pose a risk for exposure via ingestion, inhalation or dermal exposure. Utilizing a unique data set in which human subjects were exposed ...

Formation and Human Risk of Carcinogenic Heterocyclic Amines Formed from Natural Precursors in Meat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knize, M G; Felton, J S

2004-11-22

A group of heterocyclic amines that are mutagens and rodent carcinogens form when meat is cooked to medium and well-done states. The precursors of these compounds are natural meat components: creatinine, amino acids and sugars. Defined model systems of dry-heated precursors mimic the amounts and proportions of heterocyclic amines found in meat. Results from model systems and cooking experiments suggest ways to reduce their formation and, thus, to reduce human intake. Human cancer epidemiology studies related to consumption of well-done meat products are listed and compared.

A new method to quantify the health risks from sources of perfluoroalkyl substances, combined with positive matrix factorization and risk assessment models.

PubMed

Xu, Jiao; Shi, Guo-Liang; Guo, Chang-Sheng; Wang, Hai-Ting; Tian, Ying-Ze; Huangfu, Yan-Qi; Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Yin-Chang; Xu, Jian

2018-01-01

A hybrid model based on the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and the health risk assessment model for assessing risks associated with sources of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in water was established and applied at Dianchi Lake to test its applicability. The new method contains 2 stages: 1) the sources of PFASs were apportioned by the PMF model and 2) the contribution of health risks from each source was calculated by the new hybrid model. Two factors were extracted by PMF, with factor 1 identified as aqueous fire-fighting foams source and factor 2 as fluoropolymer manufacturing and processing and perfluorooctanoic acid production source. The health risk of PFASs in the water assessed by the health risk assessment model was 9.54 × 10 -7  a -1 on average, showing no obvious adverse effects to human health. The 2 sources' risks estimated by the new hybrid model ranged from 2.95 × 10 -10 to 6.60 × 10 -6  a -1 and from 1.64 × 10 -7 to 1.62 × 10 -6  a -1 , respectively. The new hybrid model can provide useful information on the health risks of PFAS sources, which is helpful for pollution control and environmental management. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:107-115. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

An acarologic survey and Amblyomma americanum distribution map with implications for tularemia risk in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, H.E.; Yates, K.F.; Dietrich, G.; MacMillan, K.; Graham, C.B.; Reese, S.M.; Helterbrand, Wm. S.; Nicholson, W.L.; Blount, K.; Mead, P.S.; Patrick, S.L.; Eisen, R.J.

2011-01-01

In the United States, tickborne diseases occur focally. Missouri represents a major focus of several tickborne diseases that includes spotted fever rickettsiosis, tularemia, and ehrlichiosis. Our study sought to determine the potential risk of human exposure to human-biting vector ticks in this area. We collected ticks in 79 sites in southern Missouri during June 7-10, 2009, which yielded 1,047 adult and 3,585 nymphal Amblyomma americanum, 5 adult Amblyomma maculatum, 19 adult Dermacentor variabilis, and 5 nymphal Ixodes brunneus. Logistic regression analysis showed that areas posing an elevated risk of exposure to A. americanum nymphs or adults were more likely to be classified as forested than grassland, and the probability of being classified as elevated risk increased with increasing relative humidity during the month of June (30-year average). Overall accuracy of each of the two models was greater than 70% and showed that 20% and 30% of the state were classified as elevated risk for human exposure to nymphs and adults, respectively. We also found a significant positive association between heightened acarologic risk and counties reporting tularemia cases. Our study provides an updated distribution map for A. americanum in Missouri and suggests a wide-spread risk of human exposure to A. americanum and their associated pathogens in this region. Copyright ?? 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CHALLENGES WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

In the field of environmental engineering, modeling tools are playing an ever larger role in addressing air quality issues, including source pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and human exposure risks. More detailed modeling of environmental flows requires tools for c...

KSC-08pd1901

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-02

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Professor Peter Voci, NYIT MOCAP (Motion Capture) team director, (left) hands a component of the Orion Crew Module mockup to one of three technicians inside the mockup. The technicians wear motion capture suits. The motion tracking aims to improve efficiency of assembly processes and identify potential ergonomic risks for technicians assembling the mockup. The work is being performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Lab in the RLV Hangar at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The motion tracking aims to improve efficiency of assembly processes and identify potential ergonomic risks for technicians assembling the mockup. The work is being performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Lab in the RLV Hangar at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Part of NASA's Constellation Program, the Orion spacecraft will return humans to the moon and prepare for future voyages to Mars and other destinations in our solar system.

How animal models inform child and adolescent psychiatry.

PubMed

Stevens, Hanna E; Vaccarino, Flora M

2015-05-01

Every available approach should be used to advance the field of child and adolescent psychiatry. Biological systems are important for the behavioral problems of children. Close examination of nonhuman animals and the biology and behavior that they share with humans is an approach that must be used to advance the clinical work of child psychiatry. We review here how model systems are used to contribute to significant insights into childhood psychiatric disorders. Model systems have not only demonstrated causality of risk factors for psychiatric pathophysiology, but have also allowed child psychiatrists to think in different ways about risks for psychiatric disorders and multiple levels that might be the basis of recovery and prevention. We present examples of how animal systems are used to benefit child psychiatry, including through environmental, genetic, and acute biological manipulations. Animal model work has been essential in our current thinking about childhood disorders, including the importance of dose and timing of risk factors, specific features of risk factors that are significant, neurochemistry involved in brain functioning, molecular components of brain development, and the importance of cellular processes previously neglected in psychiatric theories. Animal models have clear advantages and disadvantages that must be considered for these systems to be useful. Coupled with increasingly sophisticated methods for investigating human behavior and biology, animal model systems will continue to make essential contributions to our field. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

PubMed

Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

2014-02-01

Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p < 0.0001) for each outcome category. When surgeons perceived patient risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Science-Based, Community-Driven Approach to Reducing Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Risks in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, D.; McKinney, D. C.; Byers, A. C.; Shrestha, M. K.; Cuellar, A. D.; Sherpa, S. F.

2016-12-01

Over the past several decades, hundreds of lower altitude Himalayan glaciers have been melting, leaving behind new glacier lakes, holding millions of cubic meters of water. Usually contained by dams of loose boulders and soil, these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These glacial-dominated areas pose unique challenges to downstream communities in adapting to global climate change, particularly in terms of increasing threats of GLOFs. This interdisciplinary research captures unique knowledge of the Himalayan region and contributes to the development of a new generation of scientists in the area of coupled natural and human systems of glacier-dominated mountain systems. The goals of the research are to: (1) Understand natural system dynamics through an analysis of the impacts of climate change on glacial lakes, (2) Understand the human system dynamics through the strengthening of community resiliency to glacial lake hazards by developing community-driven glacial lake risk reduction systems, (3) Understand how the natural system affects the human system through the assessment of local ecological knowledge and understanding of hydrological resources and the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to GLOF hazard, and (4) Understand how the human system affects the natural system through the design and modeling of community-driven solutions to analyze the reduction of flood risk and the evolution of glacial lakes. The project integrates in situ physical and societal observations with geospatial analyses, intensive glacial hydrology and outburst flood modeling, key respondents' interviews, and community level mappings and focus groups. The Imja glacial lake in the Khumbu region of Nepal is the field research site. The project is assessing outburst flood-related processes that include glacier hydrology, river flow, hydraulics, and sediment/debris transport models. These natural system impacts are being integrated with the human science aspects to evaluate socio-economic impacts of potential outburst flood events on communities, households, and ecotourism.

Predicting Zoonotic Risk of Influenza A Viruses from Host Tropism Protein Signature Using Random Forest

PubMed Central

Eng, Christine L. P.; Tong, Joo Chuan; Tan, Tin Wee

2017-01-01

Influenza A viruses remain a significant health problem, especially when a novel subtype emerges from the avian population to cause severe outbreaks in humans. Zoonotic viruses arise from the animal population as a result of mutations and reassortments, giving rise to novel strains with the capability to evade the host species barrier and cause human infections. Despite progress in understanding interspecies transmission of influenza viruses, we are no closer to predicting zoonotic strains that can lead to an outbreak. We have previously discovered distinct host tropism protein signatures of avian, human and zoonotic influenza strains obtained from host tropism predictions on individual protein sequences. Here, we apply machine learning approaches on the signatures to build a computational model capable of predicting zoonotic strains. The zoonotic strain prediction model can classify avian, human or zoonotic strains with high accuracy, as well as providing an estimated zoonotic risk. This would therefore allow us to quickly determine if an influenza virus strain has the potential to be zoonotic using only protein sequences. The swift identification of potential zoonotic strains in the animal population using the zoonotic strain prediction model could provide us with an early indication of an imminent influenza outbreak. PMID:28587080

Predicting Zoonotic Risk of Influenza A Viruses from Host Tropism Protein Signature Using Random Forest.

PubMed

Eng, Christine L P; Tong, Joo Chuan; Tan, Tin Wee

2017-05-25

Influenza A viruses remain a significant health problem, especially when a novel subtype emerges from the avian population to cause severe outbreaks in humans. Zoonotic viruses arise from the animal population as a result of mutations and reassortments, giving rise to novel strains with the capability to evade the host species barrier and cause human infections. Despite progress in understanding interspecies transmission of influenza viruses, we are no closer to predicting zoonotic strains that can lead to an outbreak. We have previously discovered distinct host tropism protein signatures of avian, human and zoonotic influenza strains obtained from host tropism predictions on individual protein sequences. Here, we apply machine learning approaches on the signatures to build a computational model capable of predicting zoonotic strains. The zoonotic strain prediction model can classify avian, human or zoonotic strains with high accuracy, as well as providing an estimated zoonotic risk. This would therefore allow us to quickly determine if an influenza virus strain has the potential to be zoonotic using only protein sequences. The swift identification of potential zoonotic strains in the animal population using the zoonotic strain prediction model could provide us with an early indication of an imminent influenza outbreak.

Monitoring of human brain functions in risk decision-making task by diffuse optical tomography using voxel-wise general linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Marry; Liu, Hanli

2013-03-01

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive imaging technique which measures the hemodynamic changes that reflect the brain activity. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), a variant of fNIRS with multi-channel NIRS measurements, has demonstrated capability of three dimensional (3D) reconstructions of hemodynamic changes due to the brain activity. Conventional method of DOT image analysis to define the brain activation is based upon the paired t-test between two different states, such as resting-state versus task-state. However, it has limitation because the selection of activation and post-activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM) based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with the risk-decision making process. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used in behavioral measures to assess human risk taking action and tendency while facing risks. We have utilized the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making. Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed on 18human participants (10 males and 8females).In this work, we wish to demonstrate the feasibility of using voxel-wise GLM analysis to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision making by DOT. Results have shown significant changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active choice mode and a different hemodynamic pattern between genders, which are in good agreements with published literatures in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies.

Human health risk assessment of nitrosamines and nitramines for potential application in CO2 capture.

PubMed

Ravnum, S; Rundén-Pran, E; Fjellsbø, L M; Dusinska, M

2014-07-01

Emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere exert an environmental and climate change challenge. An attempt to deal with this challenge is made at Mongstad by application of amines for CO2 capture and storage (CO2 capture Mongstad (CCM) project). As part of the CO2 capture process, nitrosamines and nitramines may be emitted. Toxicological testing of nitrosamines and nitramines indicate a genotoxic potential of these substances. Here we present a risk characterization and assessment for five nitrosamines (N-Nitrosodi-methylamine (NDMA) N-Nitrosodi-ethylamine (NDEA), N-Nitroso-morpholine (NNM), N-Nitroso-piperidine (NPIP), and Dinitroso-piperazine (DNP)) and two nitramines (N-Methyl-nitramine (NTMA), Dimethyl-nitramine (NDTMA)), which are potentially emitted from the CO2 capture plant (CCP). Human health risk assessment of genotoxic non-threshold substances is a heavily debated topic, and no consensus methodology exists internationally. Extrapolation modeling from high-dose animal exposures to low-dose human exposures can be crucial for the final risk calculation. In the work presented here, different extrapolation models are discussed, and suggestions on applications are given. Then, preferred methods for calculating derived minimal effect level (DMEL) are presented with the selected nitrosamines and nitramines. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warila, James; Batterman, Stuart; Passino-Reader, Dora R.

2001-01-01

Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 Iμg/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation eficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in txicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (>200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Vincent; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Zhou, Xiaoyan; Xiao, Xiangming; Prosser, Diann J.; Guo, Fusheng; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.

Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China.

PubMed

Martin, Vincent; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Zhou, Xiaoyan; Xiao, Xiangming; Prosser, Diann J; Guo, Fusheng; Gilbert, Marius

2011-03-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004-2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007-2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.

Spatial Distribution and Risk Factors of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

PubMed Central

Martin, Vincent; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Zhou, Xiaoyan; Xiao, Xiangming; Prosser, Diann J.; Guo, Fusheng; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions. PMID:21408202

Next generation testing strategy for assessment of genomic damage: A conceptual framework and considerations.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Gollapudi, B Bhaskar; Bemis, Jeffrey C; Benz, R Daniel; Douglas, George R; Elespuru, Rosalie K; Johnson, George E; Kirkland, David J; LeBaron, Matthew J; Li, Albert P; Marchetti, Francesco; Pottenger, Lynn H; Rorije, Emiel; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Thybaud, Veronique; van Benthem, Jan; Yauk, Carole L; Zeiger, Errol; Luijten, Mirjam

2017-06-01

For several decades, regulatory testing schemes for genetic damage have been standardized where the tests being utilized examined mutations and structural and numerical chromosomal damage. This has served the genetic toxicity community well when most of the substances being tested were amenable to such assays. The outcome from this testing is usually a dichotomous (yes/no) evaluation of test results, and in many instances, the information is only used to determine whether a substance has carcinogenic potential or not. Over the same time period, mechanisms and modes of action (MOAs) that elucidate a wider range of genomic damage involved in many adverse health outcomes have been recognized. In addition, a paradigm shift in applied genetic toxicology is moving the field toward a more quantitative dose-response analysis and point-of-departure (PoD) determination with a focus on risks to exposed humans. This is directing emphasis on genomic damage that is likely to induce changes associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. This paradigm shift is moving the testing emphasis for genetic damage from a hazard identification only evaluation to a more comprehensive risk assessment approach that provides more insightful information for decision makers regarding the potential risk of genetic damage to exposed humans. To enable this broader context for examining genetic damage, a next generation testing strategy needs to take into account a broader, more flexible approach to testing, and ultimately modeling, of genomic damage as it relates to human exposure. This is consistent with the larger risk assessment context being used in regulatory decision making. As presented here, this flexible approach for examining genomic damage focuses on testing for relevant genomic effects that can be, as best as possible, associated with an adverse health effect. The most desired linkage for risk to humans would be changes in loci associated with human diseases, whether in somatic or germ cells. The outline of a flexible approach and associated considerations are presented in a series of nine steps, some of which can occur in parallel, which was developed through a collaborative effort by leading genetic toxicologists from academia, government, and industry through the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC). The ultimate goal is to provide quantitative data to model the potential risk levels of substances, which induce genomic damage contributing to human adverse health outcomes. Any good risk assessment begins with asking the appropriate risk management questions in a planning and scoping effort. This step sets up the problem to be addressed (e.g., broadly, does genomic damage need to be addressed, and if so, how to proceed). The next two steps assemble what is known about the problem by building a knowledge base about the substance of concern and developing a rational biological argument for why testing for genomic damage is needed or not. By focusing on the risk management problem and potential genomic damage of concern, the next step of assay(s) selection takes place. The work-up of the problem during the earlier steps provides the insight to which assays would most likely produce the most meaningful data. This discussion does not detail the wide range of genomic damage tests available, but points to types of testing systems that can be very useful. Once the assays are performed and analyzed, the relevant data sets are selected for modeling potential risk. From this point on, the data are evaluated and modeled as they are for any other toxicology endpoint. Any observed genomic damage/effects (or genetic event(s)) can be modeled via a dose-response analysis and determination of an estimated PoD. When a quantitative risk analysis is needed for decision making, a parallel exposure assessment effort is performed (exposure assessment is not detailed here as this is not the focus of this discussion; guidelines for this assessment exist elsewhere). Then the PoD for genomic damage is used with the exposure information to develop risk estimations (e.g., using reference dose (RfD), margin of exposure (MOE) approaches) in a risk characterization and presented to risk managers for informing decision making. This approach is applicable now for incorporating genomic damage results into the decision-making process for assessing potential adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans and is consistent with the ILSI HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) roadmap. This applies to any substance to which humans are exposed, including pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, food additives, and other chemicals. It is time for regulatory bodies to incorporate the broader knowledge and insights provided by genomic damage results into the assessments of risk to more fully understand the potential of adverse outcomes in chemically exposed humans, thus improving the assessment of risk due to genomic damage. The historical use of genomic damage data as a yes/no gateway for possible cancer risk has been too narrowly focused in risk assessment. The recent advances in assaying for and understanding genomic damage, including eventually epigenetic alterations, obviously add a greater wealth of information for determining potential risk to humans. Regulatory bodies need to embrace this paradigm shift from hazard identification to quantitative analysis and to incorporate the wider range of genomic damage in their assessments of risk to humans. The quantitative analyses and methodologies discussed here can be readily applied to genomic damage testing results now. Indeed, with the passage of the recent update to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) in the US, the new generation testing strategy for genomic damage described here provides a regulatory agency (here the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but suitable for others) a golden opportunity to reexamine the way it addresses risk-based genomic damage testing (including hazard identification and exposure). Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 58:264-283, 2017. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estrogen in cardiovascular disease during systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Gilbert, Emily L; Ryan, Michael J

2014-12-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease that disproportionately affects women during their childbearing years. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in this patient population at an age when women often have low cardiovascular risk. Hypertension is a major cardiovascular disease risk factor, and its prevalence is markedly increased in women with SLE. Estrogen has traditionally been implicated in SLE disease progression because of the prevalence of the disease in women; however, its role in cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension is unclear. The objective of this review is to discuss evidence for the role of estrogen in both human and murine SLE with emphasis on the effect of estrogen on cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension. PubMed was used to search for articles with terms related to estradiol and SLE. The references of retrieved publications were also reviewed. The potential permissive role of estrogen in SLE development is supported by studies from experimental animal models of lupus in which early removal of estrogen or its effects leads to attenuation of SLE disease parameters, including autoantibody production and renal injury. However, data about the role of estrogens in human SLE are much less clear, with most studies not reaching firm conclusions about positive or negative outcomes after hormonal manipulations involving estrogen during SLE (ie, oral contraceptives, hormone therapy). Significant gaps in knowledge remain about the effect of estrogen on cardiovascular risk factors during SLE. Studies in women with SLE were not designed to determine the effect of estrogen or hormone therapy on blood pressure even though hypertension is highly prevalent, and risk of premature ovarian failure could necessitate use of hormone therapy in women with SLE. Recent evidence from an experimental animal model of lupus found that estrogen may protect against cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood. In addition, increasing evidence suggests that estrogen may have distinct temporal effects on cardiovascular risk factors during SLE. Data from experimental models of lupus suggest that estrogens may have an important permissive role for developing SLE early in life. However, their role in adulthood remains unclear, particularly for the effect on cardiovascular disease and its risk factors. Additional work is needed to understand the effect of estrogens in human SLE, and preclinical studies in experimental models of SLE may contribute important mechanistic insight to further advance the field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Estrogen in Cardiovascular Disease during Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Emily L.; Ryan, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Purpose Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease that disproportionately affects women during their childbearing years. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in this patient population at an age when women often have low cardiovascular risk. Hypertension is a major cardiovascular disease risk factor, and its prevalence is markedly increased in women with SLE. Estrogen has traditionally been implicated in SLE disease progression because of the prevalence of the disease in women; however, its role in cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension is unclear. The objective of this review is to discuss evidence for the role of estrogen in both human and murine SLE with emphasis on the effect of estrogen on cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension. Methods PubMed was used to search for articles with terms related to estradiol and SLE. The references of retrieved publications were also reviewed. Findings The potential permissive role of estrogen in SLE development is supported by studies from experimental animal models of lupus in which early removal of estrogen or its effects leads to attenuation of SLE disease parameters, including autoantibody production and renal injury. However, data about the role of estrogens in human SLE are much less clear, with most studies not reaching firm conclusions about positive or negative outcomes after hormonal manipulations involving estrogen during SLE (ie, oral contraceptives, hormone therapy). Significant gaps in knowledge remain about the effect of estrogen on cardiovascular risk factors during SLE. Studies in women with SLE were not designed to determine the effect of estrogen or hormone therapy on blood pressure even though hypertension is highly prevalent, and risk of premature ovarian failure could necessitate use of hormone therapy in women with SLE. Recent evidence from an experimental animal model of lupus found that estrogen may protect against cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood. In addition, increasing evidence suggests that estrogen may have distinct temporal effects on cardiovascular risk factors during SLE. Implications Data from experimental models of lupus suggest that estrogens may have an important permissive role for developing SLE early in life. However, their role in adulthood remains unclear, particularly for the effect on cardiovascular disease and its risk factors. Additional work is needed to understand the effect of estrogens in human SLE, and preclinical studies in experimental models of SLE may contribute important mechanistic insight to further advance the field. PMID:25194860

Composable Framework Support for Software-FMEA Through Model Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocsis, Imre; Patricia, Andras; Brancati, Francesco; Rossi, Francesco

2016-08-01

Performing Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) during software architecture design is becoming a basic requirement in an increasing number of domains; however, due to the lack of standardized early design phase model execution, classic SW-FMEA approaches carry significant risks and are human effort-intensive even in processes that use Model-Driven Engineering.Recently, modelling languages with standardized executable semantics have emerged. Building on earlier results, this paper describes framework support for generating executable error propagation models from such models during software architecture design. The approach carries the promise of increased precision, decreased risk and more automated execution for SW-FMEA during dependability- critical system development.

A pharmacokinetic model of cis- and trans-permethrin disposition in rats and humans with aggregate exposure application

EPA Science Inventory

Permethrin is a broad-spectrum pyrethroid insecticide and among the most widely used insecticides in homes and crops. Managing the risks for pesticides such as permethrin depends on the ability to consider diverse exposure scenarios and their relative risks. Physiologically-base...

EXPOSURE RECONSTRUCTION FOR REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT: EXAMPLE USING MTBE BIOMARKERS AND SIMPLE PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse health risks from environmental agents are generally related to average (long term) exposures. We used results from a series of controlled human exposure tests and classical first order rate kinetics calculations to estimate how well spot measurements of methyl tertiary ...

PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETICS/PHARMACODYNAMIC MODELING AND CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDY FOR THE N-METHYL CARBMATE PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 [PL 104-170: 110 STAT. 1513] requires EPA to consider potential cumulative human health risks resulting from aggregate exposure to pesticide chemicals acting through a common mechanism of toxicity. This includes all anticipated dietary e...

XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM RESEARCH AND ITS APPLICATION TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A major uncertainty in risk assessment is determining the exposure of a target organism to a chemical stressor, and a confounding factor is the transformation of the chemical to a toxic metabolite inside the target organism. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are...

Gendered Perspectives about Water Risks and Policy Strategies: A Tripartite Conceptual Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Kelli L.; Ibes, Dorothy C.; White, Dave D.

2011-01-01

Previous research has examined gendered perspectives on a variety of environmental risks. Mixed results complicate the ability to make generalizations about human-ecological judgments, largely because of the use of inconsistent conceptual and methodological approaches in previous work. Following the tripartite model, we examine differences between…

Sea Level Rise National Coastal Property Model

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of th...

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

PubMed

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Fractional poisson--a simple dose-response model for human norovirus.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Nappier, Sharon P

2014-10-01

This study utilizes old and new Norovirus (NoV) human challenge data to model the dose-response relationship for human NoV infection. The combined data set is used to update estimates from a previously published beta-Poisson dose-response model that includes parameters for virus aggregation and for a beta-distribution that describes variable susceptibility among hosts. The quality of the beta-Poisson model is examined and a simpler model is proposed. The new model (fractional Poisson) characterizes hosts as either perfectly susceptible or perfectly immune, requiring a single parameter (the fraction of perfectly susceptible hosts) in place of the two-parameter beta-distribution. A second parameter is included to account for virus aggregation in the same fashion as it is added to the beta-Poisson model. Infection probability is simply the product of the probability of nonzero exposure (at least one virus or aggregate is ingested) and the fraction of susceptible hosts. The model is computationally simple and appears to be well suited to the data from the NoV human challenge studies. The model's deviance is similar to that of the beta-Poisson, but with one parameter, rather than two. As a result, the Akaike information criterion favors the fractional Poisson over the beta-Poisson model. At low, environmentally relevant exposure levels (<100), estimation error is small for the fractional Poisson model; however, caution is advised because no subjects were challenged at such a low dose. New low-dose data would be of great value to further clarify the NoV dose-response relationship and to support improved risk assessment for environmentally relevant exposures. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.

2017-01-01

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravitys impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Space Human Factors and Habitability and Behavioral Health and Performance Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.

2016-01-01

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravity's impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

Incorporating Human Interindividual Biotransformation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accomplished through (1) the characterization of enzyme expression in large banks of human liver samples, (2) the employment of appropriate techniques for the quantification and extrapolation of metabolic rates derived in vitro, and (3) the judicious application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. While in vitro measurements of specific biochemical reactions from multiple human samples can yield qualitatively valuable data on human variance, such measures must be put into the perspective of the intact human to yield the most valuable predictions of metabolic differences among humans. For quantitative metabolism data to be the most valuable in risk assessment, they must be tied to human anatomy and physiology, and the impact of their variance evaluated under real exposure scenarios. For chemicals metabolized in the liver, the concentration of parent chemical in the liver represents the substrate concentration in the MichaelisMenten description of metabolism. Metabolic constants derived in vitro may be extrapolated to the intact liver, when appropriate conditions are met. Metabolic capacity Vmax; the maximal rate of the reaction) can be scaled directly to the concentration

Health risk assessment of emissions of dioxins and furans from a municipal waste incinerator: comparison with other emission sources.

PubMed

Meneses, Montse; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2004-06-01

The aim of this study was to calculate the incremental lifetime-risk to dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) for the population living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), as well as to establish the potential reduction on human health risks as a consequence of the adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the MSWI stack. Analytical and modelled results were obtained. PCDD/F concentrations in environmental media were determined by means of a simple-compartment-multimedia model (air-soil-vegetation model). Predicted and measured PCDD/F concentrations in soils and vegetation were compared, and the effects of MSWI emissions in the environmental media were determined. Human health risks due to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI were also estimated based on I-TEQ measured and modelled in various environmental media. Cancer risks due to PCDD/F emissions of the plant were 1.07E-07 and 3.08E-09, before and after installation of the clean air system, respectively. On the other hand, cancer risks due to other PCDD/F emission sources in the area were 5.54E-06 and 1.86E-06. Total PCDD/F cancer risks (including those from diet) for the population living in the vicinity of the MSWI were 1.3E-04 and 4.25E-05, respectively (67.6% of reduction). Hazard ratio for total PCDD/F exposure (including diet) decreased during the last 5 years from 1.16 to 0.38. The above data show that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs also have a notable environmental impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.

Animal models of aging research: implications for human aging and age-related diseases.

PubMed

Mitchell, Sarah J; Scheibye-Knudsen, Morten; Longo, Dan L; de Cabo, Rafael

2015-01-01

Aging is characterized by an increasing morbidity and functional decline that eventually results in the death of an organism. Aging is the largest risk factor for numerous human diseases, and understanding the aging process may thereby facilitate the development of new treatments for age-associated diseases. The use of humans in aging research is complicated by many factors, including ethical issues; environmental and social factors; and perhaps most importantly, their long natural life span. Although cellular models of human disease provide valuable mechanistic information, they are limited in that they may not replicate the in vivo biology. Almost all organisms age, and thus animal models can be useful for studying aging. Herein, we review some of the major models currently used in aging research and discuss their benefits and pitfalls, including interventions known to extend life span and health span. Finally, we conclude by discussing the future of animal models in aging research.

Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2016-07-01

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

When Giftedness Puts the Child at Risk: Being-at-Risk as a Way of Dwelling in Possibilities for Giftedness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sparks, Elizabeth E.

This paper notes that gifted education has been dominated by psychology and proposes, in contrast, to de-psychologize the concept of "giftedness-at-risk" with an alternative model which sees ontological giftedness, becoming the best one can be, as not the property of an elite few but a permanent positive human possibility for all. Hermeneutics is…

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

MODELS AND MODELING METHODS FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO TOXIC CHEMICALS AND POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

This project aims to strengthen the general scientific foundation of EPA's exposure and risk assessment, management, and policy processes by developing state-of-the-art exposure to dose mathematical models and solution methods. The results of this research will be to produce a mo...

NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE MODELING OF PM 2.5 AND AIR TOXICS CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTIONS TO DRIVE HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality (AQ) simulation models provide a basis for implementing the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and are a tool for performing risk-based assessments and for developing environmental management strategies. Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), its constituent...

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

PubMed

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

2013-08-15

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchin, Oliver; Jänicke, Britta; Meier, Fred; Scherer, Dieter; Ziegler, Felix

2016-04-01

Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.

[Ethical challenges of genetic manipulation and research with animals].

PubMed

Rodríguez Yunta, Eduardo

2012-01-01

Research with animals presents ethical questions both for being used as models of human diseases and for being a prerequisite for trials in humans, as in the introduction of genetic modifications. Some of these questions refer to the fact that, as models, they do not fully represent the human condition; that conducting toxicity tests causes great harm to animals; that their nature is altered by genetic modifications and that introducing genetically modified organisms is a risk. The use of animals in research for the benefit of humans imposes the moral responsibility to respect them, not making them suffer unnecessarily, since they are living beings capable of feeling.

Application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of trichloroethylene in rats for estimation of internal dose

EPA Science Inventory

Potential human health risk from chemical exposure must often be assessed for conditions for which suitable human or animal data are not available, requiring extrapolation across duration and concentration. The default method for exposure-duration adjustment is based on Haber's r...

Metabolomic Response of Human Embryonic Stem Cell Derived Germ-like Cells after Exposure to Steroid Hormones

EPA Science Inventory

To assess the potential risks of human exposure to endocrine active compounds (EACs), the mechanisms of toxicity must first be identified and characterized. Currently, there are no robust in vitro models for identifying the mechanisms of toxicity in germ cells resulting from EAC ...

Understanding Broadscale Wildfire Risks in a Human-Dominated Landscape

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; David T. Butry; Thomas P. Holmes; D. Evan Mercer

2002-01-01

Broadscale statistical evaluations of wildfire incidence can answer policy relevant questions about the effectiveness of microlevel vegetation management and can identify subjects needing further study. A dynamic time series cross-sectional model was used to evaluate the statistical links between forest wildfire and vegetation management, human land use, and climatic...

Total Human Exposure Risk Database and Advance Simulaiton Environment

EPA Science Inventory

THERdbASE is no longer supported by EPA and is no longer available as download.

THERdbASE is a collection of databases and models that are useful to assist in conducting assessments of human exposure to chemical pollutants, especial...

3MRA: A MULTI-MEDIA HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR SITE-SPECIFIC TO NATIONAL SCALE REGULATORY APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

3MRA provides a technology that fully integrates the full dimensionality of human and ecological exposure and risk assessment, thus allowing regulatory decisions a more complete expression of potential adverse health effects related to the disposal and reuse of contaminated waste...

Simulation of Longitudinal Exposure Data with Variance-Covariance Structures Based on Mixed Models

EPA Science Inventory

Longitudinal data are important in exposure and risk assessments, especially for pollutants with long half-lives in the human body and where chronic exposures to current levels in the environment raise concerns for human health effects. It is usually difficult and expensive to ob...

Role of visceral adipose tissue in aging.

PubMed

Huffman, Derek M; Barzilai, Nir

2009-10-01

Visceral fat (VF) accretion is a hallmark of aging in humans. Epidemiologic studies have implicated abdominal obesity as a major risk factor for insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome and death. Studies utilizing novel rodent models of visceral obesity and surgical strategies in humans have been undertaken to determine if subcutaneous (SC) abdominal or VF are causally linked to age-related diseases. Specific depletion or expansion of the VF depot using genetic or surgical tools in rodents has been shown to have direct effects on disease risk. In contrast, surgically removing large quantities of SC fat does not consistently improve metabolic parameters in humans or rodents, while benefits were observed with SC fat expansion in mice, suggesting that SC fat accrual is not an important contributor to metabolic decline. There is also compelling evidence in humans that abdominal obesity is a stronger risk factor for mortality risk than general obesity. Likewise, we have shown that surgical removal of VF improves mean and maximum lifespan in rats, providing the first causal evidence that VF depletion may be an important underlying cause of improved lifespan with caloric restriction. This review provides both corollary and causal evidence for the importance of accounting for body fat distribution, and specifically VF, when assessing disease and mortality risk. Given the hazards of VF accumulation on health, treatment strategies aimed at selectively depleting VF should be considered as a viable tool to effectively reduce disease risk in humans.

Adding the Human Element to Ship Manoeuvring Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarsæther, Karl Gunnar; Moan, Torgeir

Time-domain simulation of ship manoeuvring has been utilized in risk analysis to assess the effect of changes to the ship-lane, development in traffic volume and the associated risk. The process of ship manoeuvring in a wider socio-technical context consists of the technical systems, operational procedures, the human operators and support functions. Automated manoeuvring simulations without human operators in the simulation loop have often been preferred in simulation studies due to the low time required for simulations. Automatic control has represented the human element with little effort devoted to explain the relationship between the guidance and control algorithms and the human operator which they replace. This paper describes the development and application of a model for the human element for autonomous time-domain manoeuvring simulations. The method is applicable in the time-domain, modular and found to be capable of reproducing observed manoeuvre patterns, but limited to represent the intended behaviour.

Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

1994-10-01

The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-LET radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic transformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

Development of human epithelial cell systems for radiation risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, C. H.; Craise, L. M.

1994-01-01

The most important health effect of space radiation for astronauts is cancer induction. For radiation risk assessment, an understanding of carcinogenic effect of heavy ions in human cells is most essential. In our laboratory, we have successfully developed a human mammary epithelial cell system for studying the neoplastic transformation in vitro. Growth variants were obtained from heavy ion irradiated immortal mammary cell line. These cloned growth variants can grow in regular tissue culture media and maintain anchorage dependent growth and density inhibition property. Upon further irradiation with high-Linear Energy Transfer (LET) radiation, transformed foci were found. Experimental results from these studies suggest that multiexposure of radiation is required to induce neoplastic tranformation of human epithelial cells. This multihits requirement may be due to high genomic stability of human cells. These growth variants can be useful model systems for space flight experiments to determine the carcinogenic effect of space radiation in human epithelial cells.

The Microphysiology Systems Database for Analyzing and Modeling Compound Interactions with Human and Animal Organ Models

PubMed Central

Vernetti, Lawrence; Bergenthal, Luke; Shun, Tong Ying; Taylor, D. Lansing

2016-01-01

Abstract Microfluidic human organ models, microphysiology systems (MPS), are currently being developed as predictive models of drug safety and efficacy in humans. To design and validate MPS as predictive of human safety liabilities requires safety data for a reference set of compounds, combined with in vitro data from the human organ models. To address this need, we have developed an internet database, the MPS database (MPS-Db), as a powerful platform for experimental design, data management, and analysis, and to combine experimental data with reference data, to enable computational modeling. The present study demonstrates the capability of the MPS-Db in early safety testing using a human liver MPS to relate the effects of tolcapone and entacapone in the in vitro model to human in vivo effects. These two compounds were chosen to be evaluated as a representative pair of marketed drugs because they are structurally similar, have the same target, and were found safe or had an acceptable risk in preclinical and clinical trials, yet tolcapone induced unacceptable levels of hepatotoxicity while entacapone was found to be safe. Results demonstrate the utility of the MPS-Db as an essential resource for relating in vitro organ model data to the multiple biochemical, preclinical, and clinical data sources on in vivo drug effects. PMID:28781990

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review.

PubMed

Li, Zijian; Jennings, Aaron

2017-07-22

Abstract : The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review

PubMed Central

Jennings, Aaron

2017-01-01

The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways. PMID:28737697