Multiscale Modeling of the Effects of Salt and Perfume Raw Materials on the Rheological Properties of Commercial Threadlike Micellar Solutions.

PubMed

Tang, Xueming; Zou, Weizhong; Koenig, Peter H; McConaughy, Shawn D; Weaver, Mike R; Eike, David M; Schmidt, Michael J; Larson, Ronald G

2017-03-23

We link micellar structures to their rheological properties for two surfactant body-wash formulations at various concentrations of salts and perfume raw materials (PRMs) using molecular simulations and micellar-scale modeling, as well as traditional surfactant packing arguments. The two body washes, namely, BW-1EO and BW-3EO, are composed of sodium lauryl ethylene glycol ether sulfate (SLEnS, where n is the average number of ethylene glycol repeat units), cocamidopropyl betaine (CAPB), ACCORD (which is a mixture of six PRMs), and NaCl salt. BW-3EO is an SLE3S-based body wash, whereas BW-1EO is an SLE1S-based body wash. Additional PRMs are also added into the body washes. The effects of temperature, salt, and added PRMs on micellar lengths, breakage times, end-cap free energies, and other properties are obtained from fits of the rheological data to predictions of the "Pointer Algorithm" [ Zou , W. ; Larson , R.G. J. Rheol. 2014 , 58 , 1 - 41 ], which is a simulation method based on the Cates model of micellar dynamics. Changes in these micellar properties are interpreted using the Israelachvili surfactant packing argument. From coarse-grained molecular simulations, we infer how salt modifies the micellar properties by changing the packing between the surfactant head groups, with the micellar radius remaining nearly constant. PRMs do so by partitioning to different locations within the micelles according to their octanol/water partition coefficient P OW and chemical structures, adjusting the packing of the head and/or tail groups, and by changing the micelle radius, in the case of a large hydrophobic PRM. We find that relatively hydrophilic PRMs with log P OW < 2 partition primarily to the head group region and shrink micellar length, decreasing viscosity substantially, whereas more hydrophobic PRMs, with log P OW between 2 and 4, mix with the hydrophobic surfactant tails within the micellar core and slightly enhance the viscosity and micelle length, which is consistent with the packing argument. Large and very hydrophobic PRMs, with log P OW > 4, are isolated deep inside the micelle, separating from the tails and swelling the radius of the micelle, leading to shorter micelles and much lower viscosities, leading eventually to swollen-droplet micelles.

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

Treesearch

A. E. Van Beusekom; R. J. Viger

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while...

Effects of Varying Cloud Cover on Springtime Runoff in California's Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.

2017-12-01

This study investigates how cloud cover modifies snowmelt-runoff processes in Sierra Nevada watersheds during dry and wet periods. We use two of the California Department of Water Resources' (DWR's) quasi-operational models of the Tuolumne and Merced River basins developed from the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic modeling system. Model simulations are conducted after a validated optimization of model performance in simulating recent (1996-2014) historical variability in the Tuolumne and Merced basins using solar radiation (Qsi) derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) remote sensing. Specifically, the questions we address are: 1) how sensitive are snowmelt and runoff in the Tuolumne and Merced River basins to Qsi variability associated with cloud cover variations?, and 2) does this sensitivity change in dry vs. wet years? To address these question, we conduct two experiments, where: E1) theoretical clear-sky Qsi is used as an input to PRMS, and E2) the annual harmonic cycle of Qsi is used as an input to PRMS. The resulting hydrographs from these experiments exhibit changes in peak streamflow timing by several days to a few weeks and smaller streamflow variability when compared to the actual flows and the original simulations. For E1, despite some variations, this pattern persists when the result is evaluated for dry-year and wet-year subsets, reflecting the consistently higher Qsi input available. For E2, the hydrograph shows a later spring-summer streamflow peak in the dry-year subset when compared to the original simulations, indicating the relative importance of the modulating effect of cloud cover on snowmelt-runoff in drier years.

PRMS Data Warehousing Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruvadoo, Eranna K.

2001-01-01

Project and Resource Management System (PRMS) is a web-based, mid-level management tool developed at KSC to provide a unified enterprise framework for Project and Mission management. The addition of a data warehouse as a strategic component to the PRMS is investigated through the analysis design and implementation processes of a data warehouse prototype. As a proof of concept, a demonstration of the prototype with its OLAP's technology for multidimensional data analysis is made. The results of the data analysis and the design constraints are discussed. The prototype can be used to motivate interest and support for an operational data warehouse.

PRMS Data Warehousing Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruvadoo, Eranna K.

2002-01-01

Project and Resource Management System (PRMS) is a web-based, mid-level management tool developed at KSC to provide a unified enterprise framework for Project and Mission management. The addition of a data warehouse as a strategic component to the PRMS is investigated through the analysis, design and implementation processes of a data warehouse prototype. As a proof of concept, a demonstration of the prototype with its OLAP's technology for multidimensional data analysis is made. The results of the data analysis and the design constraints are discussed. The prototype can be used to motivate interest and support for an operational data warehouse.

Impact of fluid-structure interaction on direct tumor-targeting in a representative hepatic artery system.

PubMed

Childress, Emily M; Kleinstreuer, Clement

2014-03-01

Direct targeting of solid tumors with chemotherapeutic drugs and/or radioactive microspheres can be a treatment option which minimizes side-effects and reduces cost. Briefly, computational analysis generates particle release maps (PRMs) which visually link upstream particle injection regions in the main artery with associated exit branches, some connected to tumors. The overall goal is to compute patient-specific PRMs realistically, accurately, and cost-effectively, which determines the suitable radial placement of a micro-catheter for optimal particle injection. Focusing in this paper on new steps towards realism and accuracy, the impact of fluid-structure interaction on direct drug-targeting is evaluated, using a representative hepatic artery system with liver tumor as a test bed. Specifically, the effect of arterial wall motion was demonstrated by modeling a two-way fluid-structure interaction analysis with Lagrangian particle tracking in the bifurcating arterial system. Clearly, rapid computational evaluation of optimal catheter location for tumor-targeting in a clinical application is very important. Hence, rigid-wall cases were also compared to the flexible scenario to establish whether PRMs generated when based on simplifying assumptions could provide adequate guidance towards ideal catheter placement. It was found that the best rigid (i.e., time-averaged) geometry is the physiological one that occurs during the diastolic targeting interval.

Perception of Water-Based Masking Sounds-Long-Term Experiment in an Open-Plan Office.

PubMed

Hongisto, Valtteri; Varjo, Johanna; Oliva, David; Haapakangas, Annu; Benway, Evan

2017-01-01

A certain level of masking sound is necessary to control the disturbance caused by speech sounds in open-plan offices. The sound is usually provided with evenly distributed loudspeakers. Pseudo-random noise is often used as a source of artificial sound masking (PRMS). A recent laboratory experiment suggested that water-based masking sound (WBMS) could be more favorable than PRMS. The purpose of our study was to determine how the employees perceived different WBMSs compared to PRMS. The experiment was conducted in an open-plan office of 77 employees who had been accustomed to work under PRMS (44 dB L Aeq ). The experiment consisted of five masking conditions: the original PRMS, four different WBMSs and return to the original PRMS. The exposure time of each condition was 3 weeks. The noise level was nearly equal between the conditions (43-45 dB L Aeq ) but the spectra and the nature of the sounds were very different. A questionnaire was completed at the end of each condition. Acoustic satisfaction was worse during the WBMSs than during the PRMS. The disturbance caused by three out of four WBMSs was larger than that of PRMS. Several attributes describing the sound quality itself were in favor of PRMS. Colleagues' speech sounds disturbed more during WBMSs. None of the WBMSs produced better subjective ratings than PRMS. Although the first WBMS was equal with the PRMS for several variables, the overall results cannot be seen to support the use of WBMSs in office workplaces. Because the experiment suffered from some methodological weaknesses, conclusions about the adequacy of WBMSs cannot yet be drawn.

Perception of Water-Based Masking Sounds—Long-Term Experiment in an Open-Plan Office

PubMed Central

Hongisto, Valtteri; Varjo, Johanna; Oliva, David; Haapakangas, Annu; Benway, Evan

2017-01-01

A certain level of masking sound is necessary to control the disturbance caused by speech sounds in open-plan offices. The sound is usually provided with evenly distributed loudspeakers. Pseudo-random noise is often used as a source of artificial sound masking (PRMS). A recent laboratory experiment suggested that water-based masking sound (WBMS) could be more favorable than PRMS. The purpose of our study was to determine how the employees perceived different WBMSs compared to PRMS. The experiment was conducted in an open-plan office of 77 employees who had been accustomed to work under PRMS (44 dB LAeq). The experiment consisted of five masking conditions: the original PRMS, four different WBMSs and return to the original PRMS. The exposure time of each condition was 3 weeks. The noise level was nearly equal between the conditions (43–45 dB LAeq) but the spectra and the nature of the sounds were very different. A questionnaire was completed at the end of each condition. Acoustic satisfaction was worse during the WBMSs than during the PRMS. The disturbance caused by three out of four WBMSs was larger than that of PRMS. Several attributes describing the sound quality itself were in favor of PRMS. Colleagues' speech sounds disturbed more during WBMSs. None of the WBMSs produced better subjective ratings than PRMS. Although the first WBMS was equal with the PRMS for several variables, the overall results cannot be seen to support the use of WBMSs in office workplaces. Because the experiment suffered from some methodological weaknesses, conclusions about the adequacy of WBMSs cannot yet be drawn. PMID:28769834

Modelling surface-water depression storage in a Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Norton, Parker A.; Viger, Roland; Markstrom, Steven; Regan, R. Steven; Vanderhoof, Melanie

2018-01-01

In this study, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was used to simulate changes in surface-water depression storage in the 1,126-km2 Upper Pipestem Creek basin located within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. The Prairie Pothole Region is characterized by millions of small water bodies (or surface-water depressions) that provide numerous ecosystem services and are considered an important contribution to the hydrologic cycle. The Upper Pipestem PRMS model was extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM), developed to support consistent hydrologic modelling across the conterminous United States. The Geospatial Fabric database, created for the USGS NHM, contains hydrologic model parameter values derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire conterminous United States for 109,951 hydrologic response units. Each hydrologic response unit in the Geospatial Fabric was parameterized using aggregated surface-water depression area derived from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus, an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets. This paper presents a calibration strategy for the Upper Pipestem PRMS model that uses normalized lake elevation measurements to calibrate the parameters influencing simulated fractional surface-water depression storage. Results indicate that inclusion of measurements that give an indication of the change in surface-water depression storage in the calibration procedure resulted in accurate changes in surface-water depression storage in the water balance. Regionalized parameterization of the USGS NHM will require a proxy for change in surface-storage to accurately parameterize surface-water depression storage within the USGS NHM.

Regional Analysis of Stormwater Runoff for the Placement of Managed Aquifer Recharge Sites in Santa Cruz and Northern Monterey Counties, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.

2015-12-01

We apply a USGS surface hydrology model, Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), to analyze stormwater runoff in Santa Cruz and Northern Monterey Counties, CA with the goal of supplying managed aquifer recharge (MAR) sites. Under the combined threats of multiyear drought and excess drawdown, this region's aquifers face numerous sustainability challenges, including seawater intrusion, chronic overdraft, increased contamination, and subsidence. This study addresses the supply side of this resource issue by increasing our knowledge of the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff that could provide water for MAR. Ensuring the effectiveness of MAR using stormwater requires a thorough understanding of runoff distribution and site-specific surface and subsurface aquifer conditions. In this study we use a geographic information system (GIS) and a 3-m digital elevation model (DEM) to divide the region's four primary watersheds into Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), or topographic sub-basins, that serve as discretized input cells for PRMS. We then assign vegetation, soil, land use, slope, aspect, and other characteristics to these HRUs, from a variety of data sources, and analyze runoff spatially using PRMS under varying precipitation conditions. We are exploring methods of linking spatially continuous and high-temporal-resolution precipitation datasets to generate input precipitation catalogs, facilitating analyses of a variety of regimes. To gain an understanding of how surface hydrology has responded to land development, we will also modify our input data to represent pre-development conditions. Coupled with a concurrent MAR suitability analysis, our model results will help screen for locations of future MAR projects and will improve our understanding of how changes in land use and climate impact hydrologic runoff and aquifer recharge.

Evaluation of gridded snow water equivalent and satellite snow cover products for mountain basins in a hydrologic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dressler, K.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Bales, R.C.; Fassnacht, S.R.

2006-01-01

The USGS precipitation-runoff modelling system (PRMS) hydrologic model was used to evaluate experimental, gridded, 1 km2 snow-covered area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) products for two headwater basins within the Rio Grande (i.e. upper Rio Grande River basin) and Salt River (i.e. Black River basin) drainages in the southwestern USA. The SCA product was the fraction of each 1 km2 pixel covered by snow and was derived from NOAA advanced very high-resolution radiometer imagery. The SWE product was developed by multiplying the SCA product by SWE estimates interpolated from National Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry point measurements for a 6 year period (1995-2000). Measured SCA and SWE estimates were consistently lower than values estimated from temperature and precipitation within PRMS. The greatest differences occurred in the relatively complex terrain of the Rio Grande basin, as opposed to the relatively homogeneous terrain of the Black River basin, where differences were small. Differences between modelled and measured snow were different for the accumulation period versus the ablation period and had an elevational trend. Assimilating the measured snowfields into a version of PRMS calibrated to achieve water balance without assimilation led to reduced performance in estimating streamflow for the Rio Grande and increased performance in estimating streamflow for the Black River basin. Correcting the measured SCA and SWE for canopy effects improved simulations by adding snow mostly in the mid-to-high elevations, where satellite estimates of SCA are lower than model estimates. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A 20 bp cis-acting element is both necessary and sufficient to mediate elicitor response of a maize PRms gene.

PubMed

Raventós, D; Jensen, A B; Rask, M B; Casacuberta, J M; Mundy, J; San Segundo, B

1995-01-01

Transient gene expression assays in barley aleurone protoplasts were used to identify a cis-regulatory element involved in the elicitor-responsive expression of the maize PRms gene. Analysis of transcriptional fusions between PRms 5' upstream sequences and a chloramphenicol acetyltransferase reporter gene, as well as chimeric promoters containing PRms promoter fragments or repeated oligonucleotides fused to a minimal promoter, delineated a 20 bp sequence which functioned as an elicitor-response element (ERE). This sequence contains a motif (-246 AATTGACC) similar to sequences found in promoters of other pathogen-responsive genes. The analysis also indicated that an enhancing sequence(s) between -397 and -296 is required for full PRms activation by elicitors. The protein kinase inhibitor staurosporine was found to completely block the transcriptional activation induced by elicitors. These data indicate that protein phosphorylation is involved in the signal transduction pathway leading to PRms expression.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Madeline O.; Chang, Heejun; Reusser, Deborah A.; Brown, Cheryl A.; Jung, Il-Won

2012-01-01

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

A.E. Van Beusekom; L.E. Hay; R.J. Viger; W.A. Gould; J.A. Collazo; A. Henareh Khalyani

2014-01-01

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from...

Modeling the effects of climate and land use change on instream temperature in the Upper Tar River, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, J. A.; Bales, J. D.

2011-12-01

Freshwater mussels are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in the world. Declines in abundance and diversity in North America have been attributed to a wide range of human activities, and many species occur in habitats close to their upper thermal tolerance. We are modeling instream temperature (T) as part of an effort to understand the response of imperiled freshwater mussels to anthropogenically induced changes in water T, habitat, and flow. We used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model projected changes in stream discharge, and the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) to model changes in instream T due to climate and land-use change in the Upper Tar River, North Carolina, which has a drainage area of 2200 mi^2. Down-scaled gridded 12km Global Circulation Models were used for precipitation and T inputs to PRMS simulations from the present through 2060. Land-use change through 2060 in the Upper Tar basin was estimated from SLEUTH, a model that estimates land-use change using the probability of urbanization, (results available from NC State University) and incorporated into PRMS for long term simulations. Stream segment discharge and lateral and groundwater flow into each stream segment from PRMS were used as input for SNTEMP. Groundwater T was assumed equal to the average annual air T for the basin. Lateral inflow T was estimated from physical characteristics of the basin (e.g. impervious area, cover density, cover type, solar radiation, air T) when possible, or from a regression with air T based on empirical field data at 20 sites throughout the basin. In addition to T, data on mussel and fish populations (e.g., density and species composition?) and microhabitat have been collected at these sites. The SNTEMP model was calibrated using the mean daily T at each site. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.86 to 0.94 for mean daily T, and from 0.80 to 0.93 for maximum daily T. Ensemble simulations were run for a range of climate change and land use scenarios to estimate the potential for increased instream T at each of the 20 sites. The results of these simulations will be used in conjunction with field and laboratory data on the thermal tolerances of mussels to assess the potential for elevated temperatures to adversely affect rare and common mussel populations.

Computational and Experimental Unsteady Pressures for Alternate SLS Booster Nose Shapes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braukmann, Gregory J.; Streett, Craig L.; Kleb, William L.; Alter, Stephen J.; Murphy, Kelly J.; Glass, Christopher E.

2015-01-01

Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (DDES) predictions of the unsteady transonic flow about a Space Launch System (SLS) configuration were made with the Fully UNstructured Three-Dimensional (FUN3D) flow solver. The computational predictions were validated against results from a 2.5% model tested in the NASA Ames 11-Foot Transonic Unitary Plan Facility. The peak C(sub p,rms) value was under-predicted for the baseline, Mach 0.9 case, but the general trends of high C(sub p,rms) levels behind the forward attach hardware, reducing as one moves away both streamwise and circumferentially, were captured. Frequency of the peak power in power spectral density estimates was consistently under-predicted. Five alternate booster nose shapes were assessed, and several were shown to reduce the surface pressure fluctuations, both as predicted by the computations and verified by the wind tunnel results.

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-01-01

The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

Water-budgets and recharge-area simulations for the Spring Creek and Nittany Creek Basins and parts of the Spruce Creek Basin, Centre and Huntingdon Counties, Pennsylvania, Water Years 2000–06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Risser, Dennis W.; Regan, R. Steve; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Markstrom, Steven

2015-08-17

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with ClearWater Conservancy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to develop a hydrologic model to simulate a water budget and identify areas of greater than average recharge for the Spring Creek Basin in central Pennsylvania. The model was developed to help policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public better understand and manage the water resources in the region. The Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW), which is an integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT), was used to simulate surface water and groundwater in the Spring Creek Basin for water years 2000–06. Because the groundwater and surface-water divides for the Spring Creek Basin do not coincide, the study area includes the Nittany Creek Basin and headwaters of the Spruce Creek Basin. The hydrologic model was developed by the use of a stepwise process: (1) develop and calibrate a PRMS model and steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model; (2) re-calibrate the steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model using potential recharge estimates simulated from the PRMS model, and (3) integrate the PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models into GSFLOW. The individually calibrated PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models were used as a starting point for the calibration of the fully coupled GSFLOW model. The GSFLOW model calibration was done by comparing observations and corresponding simulated values of streamflow from 11 streamgages and groundwater levels from 16 wells. The cumulative water budget and individual water budgets for water years 2000–06 were simulated by using GSFLOW. The largest source and sink terms are represented by precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. For the period simulated, a net surplus in the water budget was computed where inflows exceeded outflows by about 1.7 billion cubic feet (0.47 inches per year over the basin area); storage increased by about the same amount to balance the budget. The rate and distribution of recharge throughout the Spring Creek, Nittany Creek, and Spruce Creek Basins is variable as a result of the high degree of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and karst features. The greatest amount of recharge was simulated in the carbonate-bedrock valley, near the toe slopes of Nittany and Tussey Mountains, in the Scotia Barrens, and along the area coinciding with the Gatesburg Formation. Runoff extremes were observed for water years 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year). Simulated average recharge rates (water reaching the saturated zone as defined in GSFLOW) for 2001 and 2004 were 5.4 in/yr and 22.0 in/yr, respectively. Areas where simulations show large variations in annual recharge between wet and dry years are the same areas where simulated recharge was large. Those areas where rates of groundwater recharge are much higher than average, and are capable of accepting substantially greater quantities of recharge during wet years, might be considered critical for maintaining the flow of springs, stream base flow, or the source of water to supply wells. The slopes of the Bald Eagle, Tussey, and Nittany Mountains are relatively insensitive to variations in recharge, primarily because of reduced infiltration rates and steep slopes.

Barriers and opportunities for passive removal of indoor ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gall, Elliott T.; Corsi, Richard L.; Siegel, Jeffrey A.

2011-06-01

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation to assess passive removal materials (PRMs) that remove ozone with no additional energy input and minimal byproduct formation. Distributions for air exchange rate in a subset of homes in Houston, Texas, were taken from the literature and combined with background ozone removal rates in typical houses and previous experimentally determined ozone deposition velocities to activated carbon cloth and gypsum wallboard PRMs. The median ratio of indoor to outdoor ozone was predicted to be 0.16 for homes with no PRMs installed and ranged from 0.047 to 0.12 for homes with PRMs. Median values of ozone removal effectiveness in these homes ranged from 22% to 68% for the conditions investigated. Achieving an ozone removal effectiveness above 50% in half of the homes would require installing a large area of PRMs and providing enhanced air speed to transport pollutants to PRM surfaces. Challenges associated with achieving this removal include optimizing indoor transport and aesthetic implications of large surface areas of PRM materials.

Graded-threshold parametric response maps: towards a strategy for adaptive dose painting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lausch, A.; Jensen, N.; Chen, J.; Lee, T. Y.; Lock, M.; Wong, E.

2014-03-01

Purpose: To modify the single-threshold parametric response map (ST-PRM) method for predicting treatment outcomes in order to facilitate its use for guidance of adaptive dose painting in intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Methods: Multiple graded thresholds were used to extend the ST-PRM method (Nat. Med. 2009;15(5):572-576) such that the full functional change distribution within tumours could be represented with respect to multiple confidence interval estimates for functional changes in similar healthy tissue. The ST-PRM and graded-threshold PRM (GT-PRM) methods were applied to functional imaging scans of 5 patients treated for hepatocellular carcinoma. Pre and post-radiotherapy arterial blood flow maps (ABF) were generated from CT-perfusion scans of each patient. ABF maps were rigidly registered based on aligning tumour centres of mass. ST-PRM and GT-PRM analyses were then performed on overlapping tumour regions within the registered ABF maps. Main findings: The ST-PRMs contained many disconnected clusters of voxels classified as having a significant change in function. While this may be useful to predict treatment response, it may pose challenges for identifying boost volumes or for informing dose-painting by numbers strategies. The GT-PRMs included all of the same information as ST-PRMs but also visualized the full tumour functional change distribution. Heterogeneous clusters in the ST-PRMs often became more connected in the GT-PRMs by voxels with similar functional changes. Conclusions: GT-PRMs provided additional information which helped to visualize relationships between significant functional changes identified by ST-PRMs. This may enhance ST-PRM utility for guiding adaptive dose painting.

The maize pathogenesis-related PRms protein localizes to plasmodesmata in maize radicles.

PubMed Central

Murillo, I; Cavallarin, L; San Segundo, B

1997-01-01

Pathogenesis-related (PR) proteins are plant proteins induced in response to infection by pathogens. In this study, an antibody raised against the maize PRms protein was used to localize the protein in fungal-infected maize radicles. The PRms protein was found to be localized at the contact areas between parenchyma cells of the differentiating protoxylem elements. By using immunoelectron microscopy, we found that these immunoreactive regions correspond to plasmodesmal regions. This was also true for the parenchyma cells filling the central pith of the vascular cylinder, although PRms mRNA accumulation was not detected in these cells. These findings suggest that for one cell type, the parenchyma cells of the central pith, the protein is imported rather than synthesized. The localization of the PRms protein indicates the possible existence of mechanisms for sorting of plant proteins to plasmodesmata and suggests that this protein may have a specialized function in the plant defense response. These findings are discussed with respect to the structure and function of plasmodesmata in cell-to-cell communication processes in higher plants. PMID:9061947

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Lichty, R.W.; Troutman, B.M.; Saindon, L.G.

1983-01-01

The concepts, structure, theoretical development, and data requirements of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) are described. The precipitation-runoff modeling system is a modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yields, and general basin hydrology. Basin response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water balance relationships, flow regimes, flood peaks and volumes, soil-water relationships, sediment yields, and groundwater recharge. Parameter-optimization and sensitivity analysis capabilites are provided to fit selected model parameters and evaluate their individual and joint effects on model output. The modular design provides a flexible framework for continued model system enhancement and hydrologic modeling research and development. (Author 's abstract)

Influence of the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Water Storage in Aquifers on the Character of Baseflow Recessions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieber, J. L.; Li, W.

2017-12-01

The instantaneous groundwater discharge (Qgw) from a watershed is related to volume of drainable water stored (Sgw) within the watershed aquifer(s). The relation is hysteretic and the magnitude of the hysteresis is completely scale-dependent. In the research reported here we apply a previously calibrated (USGS) GSFLOW model to the simulation of surface and subsurface runoff for the Sagehen Creek watershed. This 29.3 km2 watershed is located in the eastern range of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The GSFLOW model is composed of a surface water and shallow subsurface flow hydrology model, PRMS, and a groundwater flow component based on MODFLOW. PRMS is a semi-distributed watershed model, very similar in character to the well-known SWAT model. The PRMS model is coupled with the MODFLOW model in that deep percolation generated within the PRMS model feeds into the MODFLOW model. The simulated baseflow recessions, plotted as -dQ/dt vs Q, show a strong dependence to watershed topography and plot concave downward. These plots show a somewhat weaker dependence on the hydrologic fluxes of evapotranspiration and recharge, with the concave downward shape maintained but somewhat modified by these hydrologic fluxes. As expected the Qgw vs Sgw relation is markedly hysteretic. The cause for this hysteresis is related to the magnitude of water stored, and also the spatial distribution of water stored in the watershed, with the antecedent storage in upland areas controlling the recession flow in late time, while the valley area dominates the recession flow in the early time. Both the minimum streamflow (Qmin ; the flow at the transition between early time and late time uninterrupted recession) and the intercept (intercept of the regression line fit to the recession data on a log-log scale) show a strong relationship with antecedent streamflows. The minimum streamflow, Qmin, is found to be a valid normalizing parameter for producing a unique normalized -dQ/dt vs. Q relation from data manifesting the effects of hysteresis. It is proposed that this normalized relation can be used to improve the performance of low-dimension dynamic models of watershed hydrology that would otherwise not account for hysteresis in Qgw vs Sgw.

Applying a regional hydrology model to evaluate locations for groundwater replenishment with hillslope runoff under different climate and land use scenarios in an agricultural basin, central coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beganskas, S.; Young, K. S.; Fisher, A. T.; Lozano, S.; Harmon, R. E.; Teo, E. K.

2017-12-01

We are applying a regional hydrology model, Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), to evaluate locations for groundwater replenishment with hillslope runoff in the Pajaro Valley Groundwater Basin (PVGB), central coastal California. Stormwater managed aquifer recharge (MAR) projects collect hillslope runoff before it reaches a stream and infiltrate it into underlying aquifers, improving groundwater supply. The PVGB is a developed agricultural basin where groundwater provides >85% of water for irrigation and municipal needs; stormwater-MAR projects are being considered to address chronic overdraft and saltwater intrusion. We are applying PRMS to assess on a subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 acres) where adequate runoff is generated to supply stormwater-MAR in coincidence with suitable conditions for infiltration and recharge. Data from active stormwater-MAR projects in the PVGB provide ground truth for model results. We are also examining how basinwide hydrology responds to changing land use and climate, and the potential implications for future water management. To prepare extensive input files for PRMS models, we developed ArcGIS and Python tools to delineate a topographic model grid and incorporate high-resolution soil, vegetation, and other physical data into each grid region; we also developed tools to analyze and visualize model output. Using historic climate records, we generated dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios, defined as having approximately 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile annual rainfall, respectively. We also generated multiple land use scenarios by replacing developed areas with native vegetation. Preliminary results indicate that many parts of the PVGB generate significant runoff and have suitable infiltration/recharge conditions. Reducing basinwide overdraft by 10% would require collecting less than 5% of total hillslope runoff, even during the dry scenario; this demonstrates that stormwater-MAR could be an effective water management strategy under a broad range of future climate conditions. The tools we have developed inform the placement and design of stormwater-MAR projects that make effective use of limited resources.

Simulation of the Lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, west-central Nevada, using PRMS and MODFLOW models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allander, Kip K.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Jeton, Anne E.

2014-01-01

The effects of fallowing of Walker River Indian Irrigation Project fields from 2007 to 2010 on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved solids were evaluated. Fallowing resulted in a near doubling of Walker River inflow to Walker Lake during this period, an increase in Walker Lake level of about 1.4 feet, and a decrease in dissolved-solids concentration of about 540 mg/L.

Application of a Nested Modeling Approach Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.

2010-12-01

In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

2018-01-01

The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Using genome-wide measurements for computational prediction of SH2–peptide interactions

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Zeba; Mirny, Leonid A.

2009-01-01

Peptide-recognition modules (PRMs) are used throughout biology to mediate protein–protein interactions, and many PRMs are members of large protein domain families. Recent genome-wide measurements describe networks of peptide–PRM interactions. In these networks, very similar PRMs recognize distinct sets of peptides, raising the question of how peptide-recognition specificity is achieved using similar protein domains. The analysis of individual protein complex structures often gives answers that are not easily applicable to other members of the same PRM family. Bioinformatics-based approaches, one the other hand, may be difficult to interpret physically. Here we integrate structural information with a large, quantitative data set of SH2 domain–peptide interactions to study the physical origin of domain–peptide specificity. We develop an energy model, inspired by protein folding, based on interactions between the amino-acid positions in the domain and peptide. We use this model to successfully predict which SH2 domains and peptides interact and uncover the positions in each that are important for specificity. The energy model is general enough that it can be applied to other members of the SH2 family or to new peptides, and the cross-validation results suggest that these energy calculations will be useful for predicting binding interactions. It can also be adapted to study other PRM families, predict optimal peptides for a given SH2 domain, or study other biological interactions, e.g. protein–DNA interactions. PMID:19502496

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Effects of snowmelt on watershed transit time distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Z.; Carroll, R. W. H.; Harman, C. J.; Wilusz, D. C.; Schumer, R.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt is the principal control of the timing and magnitude of water flow through alpine watersheds, but the streamflow generated may be displaced groundwater. To quantify this effect, we use a rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) model to estimate time-dependent travel time distributions (TTDs) for the East River Catchment (ERC, 84 km2) - a headwater basin of the Colorado River, and newly designated as the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA). Through the SFA, observational networks related to precipitation and stream fluxes have been established with a focus on environmental tracers and stable isotopes. The United Stated Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to estimate spatially- and temporally-variable boundary fluxes of effective precipitation (snowmelt & rain), evapotranspiration, and subsurface storage. The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to calibrate the rSAS model to observed stream isotopic concentration data and quantify uncertainty. The sensitivity of the simulated TTDs to systematic changes in the boundary fluxes was explored. Different PRMS and rSAS model parameters setup were tested to explore how they affect the relationship between input precipitation, especially snowmelt, and the estimated TTDs. Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WCA) was applied to investigate the seasonality of TTD simulations. Our ultimate goal is insight into how the Colorado River headwater catchments store and route water, and how sensitive flow paths and transit times are to climatic changes.

P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

Estimates of Ground-Water Recharge to the Yakima River Basin Aquifer System, Washington, for Predevelopment and Current Land-Use and Land-Cover Conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Olsen, T.D.

2007-01-01

Two models were used to estimate ground-water recharge to the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington for predevelopment (estimate of natural conditions) and current (a multi-year, 1995-2004, composite) land-use and land-cover conditions. The models were the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) that are contained in the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. Daily values of recharge were estimated for water years 1950-98 using previously developed PRMS-watershed models for four mainly forested upland areas, and for water years 1950-2003 using DPM applied to 17 semiarid to arid areas in the basin. The mean annual recharge under predevelopment conditions was estimated to be about 11.9 in. or 5,450 ft3/s (about 3.9 million acre-ft) for the 6,207 mi2 in the modeled area. In the modeled areas, recharge ranged from 0.08 in. (1.2 ft3/s) to 34 in. (2,825 ft3/s). About 97 percent of the recharge occurred in the 3,667 mi2 area included in the upland-area models, but much of this quantity is not available to recharge the bedrock hydrogeologic units. Only about 1.0 in., or 187 ft3/s (about 0.14 million acre-ft), was estimated to occur in the 2,540 mi2 area included in the semiarid to arid lowland modeled areas. The mean annual recharge to the aquifer system under current conditions was estimated to be about 15.6 in., or 7,149 ft3/s (about 5.2 million acre-ft). The increase in recharge is due to the application of irrigation water to croplands. The annual quantity of irrigation was more than five times the annual precipitation for some of the modeled areas. Mean annual actual evapotranspiration was estimated to have increased from predevelopment conditions by more than 1,700 ft3/s (about 1.2 million acre-ft) due to irrigation.

Development of a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Feasibility of Water Leasing in the Middle Rio Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, C. B.; Boyle, D. P.; Lamorey, G. W.; Bassett, S. D.

2007-12-01

The demand for water in the southwestern United States has increased in tandem with a rapid growth of population over the past 50 years. With ever increasing demands being placed on available water supplies, improving water management becomes crucial to the sustainability of the region's water resources. The National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center (STC) for the Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) is interested in the feasibility of water leasing as a method for more efficiently distributing water among competing users. Economists working on the project will run water leasing simulations in an auction-type environment to understand the pros and cons of water leasing in a free market system. To include hydrologic processes in the water leasing simulations, an MMS-PRMS hydrologic model was developed for a portion of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB) near Albuquerque, New Mexico. This portion of the MRGB contains a detailed network of diversions, canals, and drains that transport water through the system. In order to capture the complexity of the system, the model was developed using the highest resolution information available. In the model, each Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) is represented as a trader. To achieve the 15 trader limit desired by economists, the model structure was simplified using two basic constraints; 1) HRUs having a common source and point of return to the river were lumped; and 2) HRUs with less than 20% agricultural land use were omitted from the auction simulations. A new Evapotranspiration (ET) module was implemented in the model to better estimate ET associated with different crops. Modules were also developed so that the end user has the flexibility to manipulate water deliveries based on crop type and land use. The MMS- PRMS model for the MRGB should help economists determine if the incentive to profit by selling or buying water can make more efficient use of the available water supply.

Characterizing climate-change impacts on the 1.5-yr flood flow in selected basins across the United States: a probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.

First report of Coxiella burnetii and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in poultry red mites, Dermanyssus gallinae (Mesostigmata, Acari), related to urban outbreaks of dermatitis in Italy.

PubMed

Raele, D A; Galante, D; Pugliese, N; La Salandra, G; Lomuto, M; Cafiero, M Assunta

2018-05-01

The poultry red mite (PRM), Dermanyssus gallinae, is a nonburrowing haematophagous nest-dwelling ectoparasite of birds; occasionally it bites humans, inducing dermatitis. The possibility that this parasite may also be involved in transmission of pathogens is an additional concern. We investigated the presence of zoonotic agents in PRMs from bird nests and pets, and related them to urban outbreaks of dermatitis. A total of 98 PRMs from 12 outbreaks of PRM dermatitis that occurred in Italian cities from 2001 to 2017 were molecularly investigated for detection of Coxiella spp. (16S rRNA), Chlamydophila spp. (16S rRNA), Rickettsia spp. (17 kDa protein - encoding gene), Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato ( groEL gene) and Bartonella spp. (16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer). Of the 12 tested mite pools, one was positive for Coxiella burnetii (100% identity) and two for B. burgdorferi sensu lato (99% with Borrelia afzelii ). For the first time, the presence of B. burgdorferi sensu lato and C. burnetii is reported in PRMs from urban areas. Birds, mainly pigeons, can harbour both pathogens. Therefore, birds and their nest-dwelling PRMs may play a role in the epidemiology of these infections.

Use of Annotations for Component and Framework Interoperability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, O.; Lloyd, W.; Carlson, J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Geter, F.

2009-12-01

The popular programming languages Java and C# provide annotations, a form of meta-data construct. Software frameworks for web integration, web services, database access, and unit testing now take advantage of annotations to reduce the complexity of APIs and the quantity of integration code between the application and framework infrastructure. Adopting annotation features in frameworks has been observed to lead to cleaner and leaner application code. The USDA Object Modeling System (OMS) version 3.0 fully embraces the annotation approach and additionally defines a meta-data standard for components and models. In version 3.0 framework/model integration previously accomplished using API calls is now achieved using descriptive annotations. This enables the framework to provide additional functionality non-invasively such as implicit multithreading, and auto-documenting capabilities while achieving a significant reduction in the size of the model source code. Using a non-invasive methodology leads to models and modeling components with only minimal dependencies on the modeling framework. Since models and modeling components are not directly bound to framework by the use of specific APIs and/or data types they can more easily be reused both within the framework as well as outside of it. To study the effectiveness of an annotation based framework approach with other modeling frameworks, a framework-invasiveness study was conducted to evaluate the effects of framework design on model code quality. A monthly water balance model was implemented across several modeling frameworks and several software metrics were collected. The metrics selected were measures of non-invasive design methods for modeling frameworks from a software engineering perspective. It appears that the use of annotations positively impacts several software quality measures. In a next step, the PRMS model was implemented in OMS 3.0 and is currently being implemented for water supply forecasting in the western United States at the USDA NRCS National Water and Climate Center. PRMS is a component based modular precipitation-runoff model developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. The new OMS 3.0 PRMS model source code is more concise and flexible as a result of using the new framework’s annotation based approach. The fully annotated components are now providing information directly for (i) model assembly and building, (ii) dataflow analysis for implicit multithreading, (iii) automated and comprehensive model documentation of component dependencies, physical data properties, (iv) automated model and component testing, and (v) automated audit-traceability to account for all model resources leading to a particular simulation result. Experience to date has demonstrated the multi-purpose value of using annotations. Annotations are also a feasible and practical method to enable interoperability among models and modeling frameworks. As a prototype example, model code annotations were used to generate binding and mediation code to allow the use of OMS 3.0 model components within the OpenMI context.

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Clinical utility of progesterone receptor modulators and their effect on the endometrium.

PubMed

Spitz, Irving M

2009-08-01

In view of the spate of recent publications related to mifepristone and some second generation progesterone receptor modulators (PRMs), this appears to be an opportune time to view the clinical status of these compounds. Randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trials have been conducted with mifepristone, CDB-4124 (Proellex), CDB-2914 (VA 2914, Ulipristal) and asoprisnil (J867). All these PRMs are effective in the treatment of uterine fibroids where they are associated with a reduction in pain, bleeding and improvement in quality of life and decrease in fibroid size. CDB-4124 is also efficacious in endometriosis. Long-term treatment with PRMs may be associated with endometrial thickening on ultrasound and there have been reports of endometrial hyperplasia. Several reassuring recent publications have done much to explain the mechanism underlying these endometrial changes. The most common histological finding is cystic glandular dilatation often associated with both admixed estrogen (mitotic) and progestin (secretory) epithelial effects. This histology has not been previously encountered in clinical practice and should not be confused with endometrial hyperplasia. The endometrial thickness is related to this cystic glandular dilatation. At this stage of development, PRMs cannot be administered for longer than 3 or 4 months. Even over this time, there is improvement of symptoms associated with fibroids and endometriosis. Clinicians and pathologists need to be aware that the endometrial thickening and histological appearance do not represent endometrial hyperplasia.

Modeling Pre- and Post- Wildfire Hydrologic Response to Vegetation Change in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, A. E.; Benedict, K. K.; Zhang, S.; Savickas, J.

2017-12-01

Large scale, high severity wildfires in forests have become increasingly prevalent in the western United States due to fire exclusion. Although past work has focused on the immediate consequences of wildfire (ie. runoff magnitude and debris flow), little has been done to understand the post wildfire hydrologic consequences of vegetation regrowth. Furthermore, vegetation is often characterized by static parameterizations within hydrological models. In order to understand the temporal relationship between hydrologic processes and revegetation, we modularized and partially automated the hydrologic modeling process to increase connectivity between remotely sensed data, the Virtual Watershed Platform (a data management resource, called the VWP), input meteorological data, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This process was used to run simulations in the Valles Caldera of NM, an area impacted by the 2011 Las Conchas Fire, in PRMS before and after the Las Conchas to evaluate hydrologic process changes. The modeling environment addressed some of the existing challenges faced by hydrological modelers. At present, modelers are somewhat limited in their ability to push the boundaries of hydrologic understanding. Specific issues faced by modelers include limited computational resources to model processes at large spatial and temporal scales, data storage capacity and accessibility from the modeling platform, computational and time contraints for experimental modeling, and the skills to integrate modeling software in ways that have not been explored. By taking an interdisciplinary approach, we were able to address some of these challenges by leveraging the skills of hydrologic, data, and computer scientists; and the technical capabilities provided by a combination of on-demand/high-performance computing, distributed data, and cloud services. The hydrologic modeling process was modularized to include options for distributing meteorological data, parameter space experimentation, data format transformation, looping, validation of models and containerization for enabling new analytic scenarios. The user interacts with the modules through Jupyter Notebooks which can be connected to an on-demand computing and HPC environment, and data services built as part of the VWP.

Climate change impacts on the Lehman-Baker Creek drainage in the Great Basin National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volk, J. M.

2013-12-01

Global climate models (GCMs) forced by increased CO2 emissions forecast anomalously dry and warm trends over the southwestern U.S. for the 21st century. The effect of warmer conditions may result in decreased surface water resources within the Great Basin physiographic region critical for ecology, irrigation and municipal water supply. Here we use downscaled GCM output from the A2 and B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios to force a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed model developed for the Lehman and Baker Creeks Drainage (LBCD) in the Great Basin National Park, NV for a century long time period. The goal is to quantify the effects of rising temperature to the water budget in the LBCD at monthly and annual timescales. Dynamically downscaled GCM projections are attained from the NSF EPSCoR Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach project and statistically downscaled output is retrieved from the "U.S. Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections". Historical daily climate and streamflow data have been collected simultaneously for periods extending 20 years or longer. Mann-Kendal trend test results showed a statistically significant (α= 0.05) long-term rising trend from 1895 to 2012 in annual and monthly average temperatures for the study area. A grid-based, PRMS watershed model of the LBCD has been created within ArcGIS 10, and physical parameters have been estimated at a spatial resolution of 100m. Simulation results will be available soon. Snow cover is expected to decrease and peak runoff to occur earlier in the spring, resulting in increased runoff, decreased infiltration/recharge, decreased baseflows, and decreased evapo-transpiration.

A graph kernel approach for alignment-free domain-peptide interaction prediction with an application to human SH3 domains.

PubMed

Kundu, Kousik; Costa, Fabrizio; Backofen, Rolf

2013-07-01

State-of-the-art experimental data for determining binding specificities of peptide recognition modules (PRMs) is obtained by high-throughput approaches like peptide arrays. Most prediction tools applicable to this kind of data are based on an initial multiple alignment of the peptide ligands. Building an initial alignment can be error-prone, especially in the case of the proline-rich peptides bound by the SH3 domains. Here, we present a machine-learning approach based on an efficient graph-kernel technique to predict the specificity of a large set of 70 human SH3 domains, which are an important class of PRMs. The graph-kernel strategy allows us to (i) integrate several types of physico-chemical information for each amino acid, (ii) consider high-order correlations between these features and (iii) eliminate the need for an initial peptide alignment. We build specialized models for each human SH3 domain and achieve competitive predictive performance of 0.73 area under precision-recall curve, compared with 0.27 area under precision-recall curve for state-of-the-art methods based on position weight matrices. We show that better models can be obtained when we use information on the noninteracting peptides (negative examples), which is currently not used by the state-of-the art approaches based on position weight matrices. To this end, we analyze two strategies to identify subsets of high confidence negative data. The techniques introduced here are more general and hence can also be used for any other protein domains, which interact with short peptides (i.e. other PRMs). The program with the predictive models can be found at http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH3PepInt/SH3PepInt.tar.gz. We also provide a genome-wide prediction for all 70 human SH3 domains, which can be found under http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH3PepInt/Genome-Wide-Predictions.tar.gz. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A graph kernel approach for alignment-free domain–peptide interaction prediction with an application to human SH3 domains

PubMed Central

Kundu, Kousik; Costa, Fabrizio; Backofen, Rolf

2013-01-01

Motivation: State-of-the-art experimental data for determining binding specificities of peptide recognition modules (PRMs) is obtained by high-throughput approaches like peptide arrays. Most prediction tools applicable to this kind of data are based on an initial multiple alignment of the peptide ligands. Building an initial alignment can be error-prone, especially in the case of the proline-rich peptides bound by the SH3 domains. Results: Here, we present a machine-learning approach based on an efficient graph-kernel technique to predict the specificity of a large set of 70 human SH3 domains, which are an important class of PRMs. The graph-kernel strategy allows us to (i) integrate several types of physico-chemical information for each amino acid, (ii) consider high-order correlations between these features and (iii) eliminate the need for an initial peptide alignment. We build specialized models for each human SH3 domain and achieve competitive predictive performance of 0.73 area under precision-recall curve, compared with 0.27 area under precision-recall curve for state-of-the-art methods based on position weight matrices. We show that better models can be obtained when we use information on the noninteracting peptides (negative examples), which is currently not used by the state-of-the art approaches based on position weight matrices. To this end, we analyze two strategies to identify subsets of high confidence negative data. The techniques introduced here are more general and hence can also be used for any other protein domains, which interact with short peptides (i.e. other PRMs). Availability: The program with the predictive models can be found at http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH3PepInt/SH3PepInt.tar.gz. We also provide a genome-wide prediction for all 70 human SH3 domains, which can be found under http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH3PepInt/Genome-Wide-Predictions.tar.gz. Contact: backofen@informatik.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23813002

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15 catchments resulted in good model performance (NSE > 0.5) in 10 and medium performance (NSE > 0.2) in 3 catchments. Optimal model parameters proofed to be relatively insensitive to different HRU configurations. This suggests that dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer can potentially be identified based on catchment attributes describing meteorological, geological or landscape characteristics. Parameter regionalization based on a principal component analysis (PCA) nearest neighbor search (using all available catchment attributes) resulted in a 54% success rate in transferring optimal parameter sets and still yielding acceptable model performance. Data from more catchments are required to further increase the parameter transferability success rate or to develop regionalization strategies for individual parameters.

Sierra Nevada snowpack and runoff prediction integrating basin-wide wireless-sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Y.; Conklin, M. H.; Bales, R. C.; Zhang, Z.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We focus on characterizing snowpack and estimating runoff from snowmelt in high elevation area (>2100 m) in Sierra Nevada for daily (for use in, e.g. flood and hydropower forecasting), seasonal (supply prediction), and decadal (long-term planning) time scale. Here, basin-wide wireless-sensor network data (ARHO, http://glaser.berkeley.edu/wsn/) is integrated into the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and a case study of the American River basin is presented. In the American River basin, over 140 wireless sensors have been planted in 14 sites considering elevation gradient, slope, aspect, and vegetation density, which provides spatially distributed snow depth, temperature, solar radiation, and soil moisture from 2013. 800 m daily gridded dataset (PRISM) is used as the climate input for the PRMS. Model parameters are obtained from various sources (e.g., NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and NED) with a regionalization method and GIS analysis. We use a stepwise framework for a model calibration to improve model performance and localities of estimates. For this, entire basin is divided into 12 subbasins that include full natural flow measurements. The study period is between 1982 and 2014, which contains three major storm events and recent severe drought. Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are initially compared with the water year 2014 ARHO observations. The overall results show reasonable agreements having the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.7, ranged from 0.3 to 0.86. However, the results indicate a tendency to underestimate the SWE in a high elevation area compared with ARHO observations, which is caused by the underestimated PRISM precipitation data. Precipitation at gauge-sparse regions (e.g., high elevation area), in general, cannot be well represented in gridded datasets. Streamflow estimates of the basin outlet have NS of 0.93, percent bias of 7.8%, and normalized root mean square error of 3.6% for the monthly time scale.

CBM Resources/reserves classification and evaluation based on PRMS rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fa, Guifang; Yuan, Ruie; Wang, Zuoqian; Lan, Jun; Zhao, Jian; Xia, Mingjun; Cai, Dechao; Yi, Yanjing

2018-02-01

This paper introduces a set of definitions and classification requirements for coalbed methane (CBM) resources/reserves, based on Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS). The basic CBM classification criterions of 1P, 2P, 3P and contingent resources are put forward from the following aspects: ownership, project maturity, drilling requirements, testing requirements, economic requirements, infrastructure and market, timing of production and development, and so on. The volumetric method is used to evaluate the OGIP, with focuses on analyses of key parameters and principles of the parameter selection, such as net thickness, ash and water content, coal rank and composition, coal density, cleat volume and saturation and absorbed gas content etc. A dynamic method is used to assess the reserves and recovery efficiency. Since the differences in rock and fluid properties, displacement mechanism, completion and operating practices and wellbore type resulted in different production curve characteristics, the factors affecting production behavior, the dewatering period, pressure build-up and interference effects were analyzed. The conclusion and results that the paper achieved can be used as important references for reasonable assessment of CBM resources/reserves.

CRT--Cascade Routing Tool to define and visualize flow paths for grid-based watershed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henson, Wesley R.; Medina, Rose L.; Mayers, C. Justin; Niswonger, Richard G.; Regan, R.S.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Cascade Routing Tool (CRT) is a computer application for watershed models that include the coupled Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model, GSFLOW, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). CRT generates output to define cascading surface and shallow subsurface flow paths for grid-based model domains. CRT requires a land-surface elevation for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) of the model grid; these elevations can be derived from a Digital Elevation Model raster data set of the area containing the model domain. Additionally, a list is required of the HRUs containing streams, swales, lakes, and other cascade termination features along with indices that uniquely define these features. Cascade flow paths are determined from the altitudes of each HRU. Cascade paths can cross any of the four faces of an HRU to a stream or to a lake within or adjacent to an HRU. Cascades can terminate at a stream, lake, or HRU that has been designated as a watershed outflow location.

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Markstrom, Steven

2014-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks.The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output.Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

PlayPhysics: An Emotional Games Learning Environment for Teaching Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Karla; Kevitt, Paul Mc; Lunney, Tom; Noguez, Julieta; Neri, Luis

To ensure learning, game-based learning environments must incorporate assessment mechanisms, e.g. Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs). ITSs are focused on recognising and influencing the learner's emotional or motivational states. This research focuses on designing and implementing an affective student model for intelligent gaming, which reasons about the learner's emotional state from cognitive and motivational variables using observable behaviour. A Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) approach is employed to derive Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The model uses the Control-Value theory of 'achievement emotions' as a basis. A preliminary test was conducted to recognise the students' prospective-outcome emotions with results presented and discussed. PlayPhysics is an emotional games learning environment for teaching Physics. Once the affective student model proves effective it will be incorporated into PlayPhysics' architecture. The design, evaluation and postevaluation of PlayPhysics are also discussed. Future work will focus on evaluating the affective student model with a larger population of students, and on providing affective feedback.

Thermodynamic contribution of backbone conformational entropy in the binding between SH3 domain and proline-rich motif.

PubMed

Zeng, Danyun; Shen, Qingliang; Cho, Jae-Hyun

2017-02-26

Biological functions of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs), and proteins containing intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) are often mediated by short linear motifs, like proline-rich motifs (PRMs). Upon binding to their target proteins, IDPs undergo a disorder-to-order transition which is accompanied by a large conformational entropy penalty. Hence, the molecular mechanisms underlying control of conformational entropy are critical for understanding the binding affinity and selectivity of IDPs-mediated protein-protein interactions (PPIs). Here, we investigated the backbone conformational entropy change accompanied by binding of the N-terminal SH3 domain (nSH3) of CrkII and PRM derived from guanine nucleotide exchange factor 1 (C3G). In particular, we focused on the estimation of conformational entropy change of disordered PRM upon binding to the nSH3 domain. Quantitative characterization of conformational dynamics of disordered peptides like PRMs is limited. Hence, we combined various methods, including NMR model-free analysis, δ2D, DynaMine, and structure-based calculation of entropy loss. This study demonstrates that the contribution of backbone conformational entropy change is significant in the PPIs mediated by IDPs/IDRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

Evaluation of the precipitation-runoff modeling system, Beaver Creek basin, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bower, D.E.

1985-01-01

The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was evaluated with data from Cane branch and Helton Branch in the Beaver Creek basin of Kentucky. Because of previous studies, 10.6 years of record were available to establish a data base for the basin including 60 storms for Cane Branch and 50 storms for Helton Branch. The model was calibrated initially using data from the 1956-58 water years. Runoff predicted by the model was 94.7% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch (mined area) and 96.9% at Helton Branch (unmined area). After the model and data base were modified, the model was refitted to the 1956-58 data for Helton Branch. It then predicted 98.6% of the runoff for the 10.6-year period. The model parameters from Helton Branch were then used to simulate the Cane Branch runoff and discharge. The model predicted 102.6% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch for the 10.6 years. The simulations produced reasonable storm volumes and peak discharges. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters indicated the parameters associated with soil moisture are the most sensitive. The model was used to predict sediment concentration and daily sediment load for selected storm periods. The sediment computations indicated the model can be used to predict sediment concentrations during storm events. (USGS)

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Viger, Roland

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

Progressive-Relapsing MS (PRMS)

MedlinePlus

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Methods for Automating Analysis of Glacier Morphology for Regional Modelling: Centerlines, Extensions, and Elevation Bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viger, R. J.; Van Beusekom, A. E.

2016-12-01

The treatment of glaciers in modeling requires information about their shape and extent. This presentation discusses new methods and their application in a new glacier-capable variant of the USGS PRMS model, a physically-based, spatially distributed daily time-step model designed to simulate the runoff and evolution of glaciers through time. In addition to developing parameters describing PRMS land surfaces (hydrologic response units, HRUs), several of the analyses and products are likely of interest to cryospheric science community in general. The first method is a (fully automated) variation of logic previously presented in the literature for definition of the glacier centerline. Given that the surface of a glacier might be convex, using traditional topographic analyses based on a DEM to trace a path down the glacier is not reliable. Instead a path is derived based on a cost function. Although only a single path is presented in our results, the method can be easily modified to delineate a branched network of centerlines for each glacier. The second method extends the glacier terminus downslope by an arbitrary distance, according to local surface topography. This product is can be used to explore possible, if unlikely, scenarios under which glacier area grows. More usefully, this method can be used to approximate glacier extents from previous years without needing historical imagery. The final method presents an approach for segmenting the glacier into altitude-based HRUs. Successful integration of this information with traditional approaches for discretizing the non-glacierized portions of a basin requires several additional steps. These include synthesizing the glacier centerline network with one developed with a traditional DEM analysis, ensuring that flow can be routed under and beyond glaciers to a basin outlet. Results are presented based on analysis of the Copper River Basin, Alaska.

Perchlorate reduction by autotrophic bacteria in the presence of zero-valent iron.

PubMed

Yu, Xueyuan; Amrhein, Christopher; Deshusses, Marc A; Matsumoto, Mark R

2006-02-15

A series of batch experiments were performed to study the combination of zero-valent iron (ZVI) with perchlorate-reducing microorganisms (PRMs) to remove perchlorate from groundwater. In this method, H2 produced during the process of iron corrosion by water is used by PRMs as an electron donor to reduce perchlorate to chloride. Perchlorate degradation rates followed Monod kinetics, with a normalized maximum utilization rate (rmax) of 9200 microg g(-1) (dry wt) h(-1) and a half-velocity constant (Ks) of 8900 microg L(-1). The overall rate of perchlorate reduction was affected by the biomass density within the system. An increase in the OD600 from 0.025 to 0.08 led to a corresponding 4-fold increase of perchlorate reduction rate. PRM adaptation to the local environment and initiation of perchlorate reduction was rapid under neutral pH conditions. At the initial OD600 of 0.015, perchlorate reduction followed pseudo-first-order reaction rates with constants of 0.059 and 0.033 h(-1) at initial pH 7 and 8, respectively. Once perchlorate reduction was established, the bioreductive process was insensitive to the increases of pH from near neutral to 9.0. In the presence of nitrate, perchlorate reduction rate was reduced, but not inhibited completely.

Graphical Technique to Support the Teaching/Learning Process of Software Process Reference Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa-Curiel, Ismael Edrein; Rodríguez-Jacobo, Josefina; Fernández-Zepeda, José Alberto

In this paper, we propose a set of diagrams to visualize software process reference models (PRM). The diagrams, called dimods, are the combination of some visual and process modeling techniques such as rich pictures, mind maps, IDEF and RAD diagrams. We show the use of this technique by designing a set of dimods for the Mexican Software Industry Process Model (MoProSoft). Additionally, we perform an evaluation of the usefulness of dimods. The result of the evaluation shows that dimods may be a support tool that facilitates the understanding, memorization, and learning of software PRMs in both, software development organizations and universities. The results also show that dimods may have advantages over the traditional description methods for these types of models.

Simulation of the Quantity, Variability, and Timing of Streamflow in the Dennys River Basin, Maine, by Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Watershed Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Department of Marine Resources Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat, began a study in 2004 to characterize the quantity, variability, and timing of streamflow in the Dennys River. The study included a synoptic summary of historical streamflow data at a long-term streamflow gage, collecting data from an additional four short-term streamflow gages, and the development and evaluation of a distributed-parameter watershed model for the Dennys River Basin. The watershed model used in this investigation was the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The Geographic Information System (GIS) Weasel was used to delineate the Dennys River Basin and subbasins and derive parameters for their physical geographic features. Calibration of the models used in this investigation involved a four-step procedure in which model output was evaluated against four calibration data sets using computed objective functions for solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water budgets, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs and was carried out using the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The SCE method reliably produces satisfactory solutions for large, complex optimization problems. The primary calibration effort went into the Dennys main stem watershed model. Calibrated parameter values obtained for the Dennys main stem model were transferred to the Cathance Stream model, and a similar four-step SCE calibration procedure was performed; this effort was undertaken to determine the potential to transfer modeling information to a nearby basin in the same region. The calibrated Dennys main stem watershed model performed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration period and evaluation period of 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. The Cathance Stream model had an NSE value of 0.68. The Dennys River Basin models make use of limited streamflow-gaging station data and provide information to characterize subbasin hydrology. The calibrated PRMS watershed models of the Dennys River Basin provide simulated daily streamflow time series from October 1, 1985, through September 30, 2006, for nearly any location within the basin. These models enable natural-resources managers to characterize the timing and quantity of water moving through the basin to support many endeavors including geochemical calculations, water-use assessment, Atlantic salmon population dynamics and migration modeling, habitat modeling and assessment, and other resource-management scenario evaluations. Characterizing streamflow contributions from subbasins in the basin and the relative amounts of surface- and ground-water contributions to streamflow throughout the basin will lead to a better understanding of water quantity and quality in the basin. Improved water-resources information will support Atlantic salmon protection efforts.

Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks.

PubMed

Pope, Justin

2016-01-01

This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

Risk Management Issues When Taking Locum Tenens Assignments.

PubMed

Cash, Charles D

2017-01-01

This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

Managing Your Aging Patient Population

PubMed Central

McNary, Ann L.

2017-01-01

This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so “clinician” is used to indicate all treatment team members. PMID:28584697

Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks

PubMed Central

Pope, Justin

2016-01-01

This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so “clinician” is used to indicate all treatment team members. PMID:28210525

Risk Management Issues When Taking Locum Tenens Assignments

PubMed Central

Cash, Charles D.

2017-01-01

This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so “clinician” is used to indicate all treatment team members. PMID:28386523

Large ensemble and large-domain hydrologic modeling: Insights from SUMMA applications in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, G.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2016-12-01

The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) provides a unifying modeling framework for process-based hydrologic modeling by defining a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy, with the capability to incorporate multiple choices for spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. In this study, we provide a first demonstration of large-scale hydrologic simulations using SUMMA through an application to the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the northwestern United States and Canada for a multi-decadal simulation period. The CRB is discretized into 11,723 hydrologic response units (HRUs) according to the United States Geologic Service Geospatial Fabric. The soil parameters are derived from the Natural Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The land cover parameters are based on the National Land Cover Database from the year 2001 created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The forcing data, including hourly air pressure, temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, shortwave and longwave radiations, are based on Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and averaged for each HRU. The simulation results are compared to simulations with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We are particularly interested in SUMMA's capability to mimic model behaviors of the other two models through the selection of appropriate model parameterizations in SUMMA.

A Dosimetric Comparison of Proton and Intensity-Modulated Photon Radiotherapy for Pediatric Parameningeal Rhabdomyosarcomas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kozak, Kevin R.; Adams, Judith; Krejcarek, Stephanie J.

Purpose: We compared tumor and normal tissue dosimetry of proton radiation therapy with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for pediatric parameningeal rhabdomyosarcomas (PRMS). Methods and Materials: To quantify dosimetric differences between contemporary proton and photon treatment for pediatric PRMS, proton beam plans were compared with IMRT plans. Ten patients treated with proton radiation therapy at Massachusetts General Hospital had IMRT plans generated. To facilitate dosimetric comparisons, clinical target volumes and normal tissue volumes were held constant. Plans were optimized for target volume coverage and normal tissue sparing. Results: Proton and IMRT plans provided acceptable and comparable target volume coverage, with atmore » least 99% of the CTV receiving 95% of the prescribed dose in all cases. Improved dose conformality provided by proton therapy resulted in significant sparing of all examined normal tissues except for ipsilateral cochlea and mastoid; ipsilateral parotid gland sparing was of borderline statistical significance (p = 0.05). More profound sparing of contralateral structures by protons resulted in greater dose asymmetry between ipsilateral and contralateral retina, optic nerves, cochlea, and mastoids; dose asymmetry between ipsilateral and contralateral parotids was of borderline statistical significance (p = 0.05). Conclusions: For pediatric PRMS, superior normal tissue sparing is achieved with proton radiation therapy compared with IMRT. Because of enhanced conformality, proton plans also demonstrate greater normal tissue dose distribution asymmetry. Longitudinal studies assessing the impact of proton radiotherapy and IMRT on normal tissue function and growth symmetry are necessary to define the clinical consequences of these differences.« less

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Groundwater-flow budget for the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in southwestern Georgia and parts of Florida and Alabama, 2008–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Sifuentes, Dorothy F.

2017-12-29

As part of the National Water Census program in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the groundwater budget of the lower ACF, with particular emphasis on recharge, characterizing the spatial and temporal relation between surface water and groundwater, and groundwater pumping. To evaluate the hydrologic budget of the lower ACF River Basin, a groundwater-flow model, constructed using MODFLOW-2005, was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer and overlying semiconfining unit for 2008–12. Model input included temporally and spatially variable specified recharge, estimated using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the ACF River Basin, and pumping, partly estimated on the basis of measured agricultural pumping rates in Georgia. The model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and base flows, which were estimated using hydrograph separation.The simulated groundwater-flow budget resulted in a small net cumulative loss of groundwater in storage during the study period. The model simulated a net loss in groundwater storage for all the subbasins as conditions became substantially drier from the beginning to the end of the study period. The model is limited by its conceptualization, the data used to represent and calibrate the model, and the mathematical representation of the system; therefore, any interpretations should be considered in light of these limitations. In spite of these limitations, the model provides insight regarding water availability in the lower ACF River Basin.

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

Quantifying the Contribution of Regional Aquifers to Stream Flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbruch, M.; Dickinson, J.

2017-12-01

The growing population of the arid and semiarid southwestern U.S. relies on over-allocated surface water resources and poorly quantified groundwater resources. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, recent studies have found that about 50 percent of the surface water at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages is derived from groundwater contributions as base flow. Prior USGS and other studies for the Colorado Plateau region have mainly examined groundwater and surface water as separate systems, and there has yet to be regional synthesis of groundwater availability in aquifers that contribute to surface water. A more physically based representation of groundwater flow could improve simulations of surface-water capture by groundwater pumping, and changes of groundwater discharge to surface water caused by possible shifts in the distribution, magnitude, and timing of recharge in the future. We seek to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Colorado Plateau region as part of a USGS regional groundwater availability assessment. Numerical modeling is used to simulate and quantify the base flow from groundwater to the Colorado River and its major tributaries. Groundwater/surface-water interactions will be simulated using the USGS code GSFLOW, which couples the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to the groundwater flow model MODFLOW. Initial results suggest that interactions between groundwater and surface water are important for projecting long-term changes in surface water budgets.

Solar Irradiance from GOES Albedo performance in a Hydrologic Model Simulation of Snowmelt Runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.; McGurk, B. J.

2015-12-01

In many hydrologic modeling applications, solar radiation has been parameterized using commonly available measures, such as the daily temperature range, due to scarce in situ solar radiation measurement network. However, these parameterized estimates often produce significant biases. Here we test hourly solar irradiance derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible albedo product, using several established algorithms. Focusing on the Sierra Nevada and White Mountain in California, we compared the GOES irradiance and that from a traditional temperature-based algorithm with incoming irradiance from pyranometers at 19 stations. The GOES based estimates yielded 21-27% reduction in root-mean-squared error (average over 19 sites). The derived irradiance is then prescribed as an input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We constrain our experiment to the Tuolumne River watershed and focus our attention on the winter and spring of 1996-2014. A root-mean-squared error reduction of 2-6% in daily inflow to Hetch Hetchy at the lower end of the Tuolumne catchment was achieved by incorporating the insolation estimates at only 8 out of 280 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) within the basin. Our ongoing work endeavors to apply satellite-derived irradiance at each individual HRU.

Optimizing Reservoir Operation to Adapt to the Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, S.; Jung, I.; Moradkhani, H.

2010-12-01

Climate change and upcoming variation in flood timing necessitates the adaptation of current rule curves developed for operation of water reservoirs as to reduce the potential damage from either flood or draught events. This study attempts to optimize the current rule curves of Cougar Dam on McKenzie River in Oregon addressing some possible climate conditions in 21th century. The objective is to minimize the failure of operation to meet either designated demands or flood limit at a downstream checkpoint. A simulation/optimization model including the standard operation policy and a global optimization method, tunes the current rule curve upon 8 GCMs and 2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is used as the hydrology model to project the streamflow for the period of 2000-2100 using downscaled precipitation and temperature forcing from 8 GCMs and two emission scenarios. An ensemble of rule curves, each associated with an individual scenario, is obtained by optimizing the reservoir operation. The simulation of reservoir operation, for all the scenarios and the expected value of the ensemble, is conducted and performance assessment using statistical indices including reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability is made.

Parametric Response Maps of Perfusion MRI May Identify Recurrent Glioblastomas Responsive to Bevacizumab and Irinotecan

PubMed Central

Aquino, Domenico; Cuppini, Lucia; Anghileri, Elena; Finocchiaro, Gaetano; Bruzzone, Maria Grazia; Eoli, Marica

2014-01-01

Background Perfusion weighted imaging (PWI) can be used to measure key aspects of tumor vascularity in vivo and recent studies suggest that perfusion imaging may be useful in the early assessment of response to angiogenesis inhibitors. Aim of this work is to compare Parametric Response Maps (PRMs) with the Region Of Interest (ROI) approach in the analysis of tumor changes induced by bevacizumab and irinotecan in recurrent glioblastomas (rGBM), and to evaluate if changes in tumor blood volume measured by perfusion MRI may predict clinical outcome. Methods 42 rGBM patients with KPS ≥50 were treated until progression, as defined by MRI with RANO criteria. Relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV) variation after 8 weeks of treatment was calculated through semi-automatic ROI placement in the same anatomic region as in baseline. Alternatively, rCBV variations with respect to baseline were calculated into the evolving tumor region using a voxel-by-voxel difference. PRMs were created showing where rCBV significantly increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Results An increased blood volume in PRM (PRMCBV+) higher than 18% (first quartile) after 8 weeks of treatment was associated with increased progression free survival (PFS; 24 versus 13 weeks, p = 0.045) and overall survival (OS; 38 versus 25 weeks, p = 0.016). After 8 weeks of treatment ROI analysis showed that mean rCBV remained elevated in non responsive patients (4.8±0.9 versus 5.1±1.2, p = 0.38), whereas decreased in responsive patients (4.2±1.3 versus 3.8±1.6 p = 0.04), and re-increased progressively when patients approached tumor progression. Conclusions Our data suggest that PRMs can provide an early marker of response to antiangiogenic treatment and warrant further confirmation in a larger cohort of GBM patients. PMID:24675671

A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Demirel, Mehmet C.

2017-10-01

The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970-1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010-2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.

The pathogenesis-related maize seed (PRms) gene plays a role in resistance to Aspergillus flavus infection and aflatoxin contamination

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aspergillus flavus is an opportunistic plant pathogen that colonizes and produces the toxic and carcinogenic secondary metabolites, aflatoxins, in oil-rich crops such as maize (Zea mays ssp. mays L.). Pathogenesis-related proteins serve as a first line of defense against invading pathogens by confer...

Progesterone and progesterone receptor modulators in the management of symptomatic uterine fibroids.

PubMed

Talaulikar, Vikram Sinai; Manyonda, Isaac

2012-12-01

The majority of symptomatic uterine fibroids are currently treated by surgical interventions (myomectomy or hysterectomy) or radiological treatments (uterine artery embolisation or focussed ultrasound surgery). None of these treatments is a panacea, and what is conspicuous is the lack of an effective long-term medical therapy for a disorder so common among women of reproductive age. It has been known for some time that progesterone and its receptors enhance proliferative activity in fibroids and this has raised the possibility that anti-progestins and (PRMs) could be useful in the medical management of fibroids. Some of the compounds which have produced promising results in recent clinical trials or research studies include mifepristone, CDB-4124 (telapristone), CP-8947, J-867 (asoprisnil) and CDB-2914 (ulipristal acetate or UA). UA has recently completed Phase III clinical trials with very encouraging results, and has now acquired a licence for clinical use in Europe. While considerable research has yet to be done on the long-term safety and efficacy of UA there is nevertheless good reason for optimism on the emergence of effective medical therapy in the form of UA and possibly other PRMs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns of Failure for Rhabdomyosarcoma of the Perineal and Perianal Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casey, Dana L.; Wexler, Leonard H.; LaQuaglia, Michael P.

2014-05-01

Purpose: To analyze prognostic factors and patterns of failure for rhabdomyosarcoma of the perineal and perianal region (PRMS), with an emphasis on radiation therapy for locoregional control. Methods and Materials: Detailed records of all 14 patients treated for PRMS at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1998 and 2012 were reviewed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS), and a competing-risks analysis was used to assess the cumulative incidence of local, regional, and distant failures. Results: Median age was 15.8 years (range, 1.1-31.9 years). High-risk features were identified: 9 of 14 patients (64%) had groupmore » 3 disease and 3 of 14 (21%) had group 4; 11 of 14 tumors (78%) were alveolar; 12 of 14 tumors (86%) were ≥5 cm; and 9 of 14 patients (64%) had involved lymph nodes (N1). Of those aged ≥10 years at diagnosis, 9 of 10 (90%) had alveolar histology, all had tumors ≥5 cm, and 8 of 10 (80%) presented with N1 disease. The rates of local, regional, and distant failure at 5 years were 17%, 31%, and 52%, respectively. Although 3 of the 4 patients with regional failure received nodal irradiation, only one of the nodal failures occurred in the radiation therapy field. The 5-year EFS was 33%, and OS was 39%. Age ≥10 years was associated with poor outcomes: EFS was 13% in patients aged ≥10 years, compared with 75% in those aged <10 years (P=.04); the OS was 13% in patients aged ≥10 years, compared with 100% in those aged <10 years (P=.04). Conclusions: Patients with PRMS, especially those aged ≥10 years, present with poor prognostic features and continue to have poor outcomes. Given the high incidence of regional node recurrence, we recommend prophylactic ilioinguinal lymph node irradiation for all patients aged ≥10 years. For children aged <10 years, nodal evaluation is essential to determine the role for lymph node irradiation.« less

Modeling the Surface Water-Groundwater Interaction in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Impacted by Agricultural Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Wu, B.; Zheng, Y.

2013-12-01

In many semi-arid and arid regions, interaction between surface water and groundwater plays an important role in the eco-hydrological system. The interaction is often complicated by agricultural activities such as surface water diversion, groundwater pumping, and irrigation. In existing surface water-groundwater integrated models, simulation of the interaction is often simplified, which could introduce significant simulation uncertainty under certain circumstance. In this study, GSFLOW, a USGS model coupling PRMS and MODFLOW, was improved to better characterize the surface water-groundwater interaction. The practices of water diversion from rivers, groundwater pumping and irrigation are explicitly simulated. In addition, the original kinematic wave routing method was replaced by a dynamic wave routing method. The improved model was then applied in Zhangye Basin (the midstream part of Heihe River Baisn), China, where the famous 'Silk Road' came through. It is a typical semi-arid region of the western China, with extensive agriculture in its oasis. The model was established and calibrated using the data in 2000-2008. A series of numerical experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of those improvements. It has been demonstrated that with the improvements, the observed streamflow and groundwater level were better reproduced by the model. The improvements have a significant impact on the simulation of multiple fluxes associated with the interaction, such as groundwater discharge, riverbed seepage, infiltration, etc. Human activities were proved to be key elements of the water cycle in the study area. The study results have important implications to the water resources modeling and management in semi-arid and arid basins.

Hydrologic climate change impacts in the Columbia River Basin and their sensitivity to methodological choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Mao, Y.; Rupp, D. E.

2016-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States' Pacific Northwest (PNW) is highly regulated for hydropower generation, flood control, fish survival, irrigation and navigation. Historically it has had a hydrologic regime characterized by winter precipitation in the form of snow, followed by a spring peak in streamflow from snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter this regime, causing changes to streamflow timing and volume. While numerous hydrologic studies have been conducted across the CRB, the impact of methodological choices in hydrologic modeling has not been as heavily investigated. To better understand their impact on the spread in modeled projections of hydrological change, we ran simulations involving permutations of a variety of methodological choices. We used outputs from ten global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. After downscaling the GCM output using three different techniques we forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), both implemented at 1/16th degree ( 5 km) for the period 1950-2099. For the VIC model, we used three independently-derived parameter sets. We will show results from the range of simulations, both in the form of basin-wide spatial analyses of hydrologic variables and through analyses of changes in streamflow at selected sites throughout the CRB. We will then discuss the differences in sensitivities to climate change seen among the projections, paying particular attention to differences in projections from the hydrologic models and different parameter sets.

Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature resulting from changes forecast for air temperature and precipitation.

WC WAVE - Integrating Diverse Hydrological-Modeling Data and Services Into an Interoperable Geospatial Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Baros, S.; Barrett, H.; Savickas, J.; Erickson, J.

2015-12-01

WC WAVE (Western Consortium for Watershed Analysis, Visualization and Exploration) is a collaborative research project between the states of Idaho, Nevada, and New Mexico that is funded under the National Science Foundation's Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). The goal of the project is to understand and document the effects of climate change on interactions between precipitation, vegetation growth, soil moisture and other landscape properties. These interactions are modeled within a framework we refer to as a virtual watershed (VW), a computer infrastructure that simulates watershed dynamics by linking scientific modeling, visualization, and data management components into a coherent whole. Developed and hosted at the Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico, the virtual watershed has a number of core functions which include: a) streamlined access to data required for model initialization and boundary conditions; b) the development of analytic scenarios through interactive visualization of available data and the storage of model configuration options; c) coupling of hydrological models through the rapid assimilation of model outputs into the data management system for access and use by sequent models. The WC-WAVE virtual watershed accomplishes these functions by provision of large-scale vector and raster data discovery, subsetting, and delivery via Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and REST web service standards. Central to the virtual watershed is the design and use of an innovative array of metadata elements that permits the stepwise coupling of diverse hydrological models (e.g. ISNOBAL, PRMS, CASiMiR) and input data to rapidly assess variation in outcomes under different climatic conditions. We present details on the architecture and functionality of the virtual watershed, results from three western U.S. watersheds, and discuss the realized benefits to watershed science of employing this integrated solution.

Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, I. W.

2015-12-01

Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Simulation of natural flows in major river basins in Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Alexandria M.; García, Ana María

2014-01-01

The Office of Water Resources (OWR) in the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) is charged with the assessment of the State’s water resources. This study developed a watershed model for the major river basins that are within Alabama or that cross Alabama’s borders, which serves as a planning tool for water-resource decisionmakers. The watershed model chosen to assess the natural amount of available water was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Models were configured and calibrated for the following four river basins: Mobile, Gulf of Mexico, Middle Tennessee, and Chattahoochee. These models required calibrating unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations to estimate natural flows, with emphases on low-flow calibration. The target calibration criteria required the errors be within the range of: (1) ±10 percent for total-streamflow volume, (2) ±10 percent for low-flow volume, (3) ±15 percent for high-flow volume, (4) ±30 percent for summer volume, and (5) above 0.5 for the correlation coefficient (R2). Seventy-one of the 90 calibration stations in the watershed models for the four major river basins within Alabama met the target calibration criteria. Variability in the model performance can be attributed to limitations in correctly representing certain hydrologic conditions that are characterized by some of the ecoregions in Alabama. Ecoregions consisting of predominantly clayey soils and (or) low topographic relief yield less successful calibration results, whereas ecoregions consisting of loamy and sandy soils and (or) high topographic relief yield more successful calibration results. Results indicate that the model does well in hilly regions with sandy soils because of rapid surface runoff and more direct interaction with subsurface flow.

What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of state variables.

Using Gridded Snow Covered Area and Snow-Water Equivalence Spatial Data Sets to Improve Snow-Pack Depletion Simulation in a Continental Scale Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risley, J. C.; Tracey, J. A.; Markstrom, S. L.; Hay, L.

2014-12-01

Snow cover areal depletion curves were used in a continuous daily hydrologic model to simulate seasonal spring snowmelt during the period between maximum snowpack accumulation and total melt. The curves are defined as the ratio of snow-water equivalence (SWE) divided by the seasonal maximum snow-water equivalence (Ai) (Y axis) versus the percent snow cover area (SCA) (X axis). The slope of the curve can vary depending on local watershed conditions. Windy sparsely vegetated high elevation watersheds, for example, can have a steeper slope than lower elevation forested watersheds. To improve the accuracy of simulated runoff at ungaged watersheds, individual snow cover areal depletion curves were created for over 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRU) in the continental scale U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM). NHM includes the same components of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff-Modeling System (PRMS), except it uses consistent land surface characterization and model parameterization across the U.S. continent. Weighted-mean daily time series of 1-kilometer gridded SWE, from Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), and 500-meter gridded SCA, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), for 2003-2014 were computed for each HRU using the USGS Geo Data Portal. Using a screening process, pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA from the snowmelt period of each year were selected. SCA values derived from imagery that did not have any cloud cover and were >0 and <100 percent were selected. Unrealistically low and high SCA values that were paired with high and low SWE/Ai ratios, respectively, were removed. Second order polynomial equations were then fit to the remaining pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA to create a unique curve for each HRU. Simulations comparing these new curves with an existing single default curve in NHM will be made to determine if there are significant improvements in runoff.

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Getting the tail to wag the dog: Incorporating groundwater transport into catchment solute transport models using rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C. J.

2015-12-01

Surface water hydrologic models are increasingly used to analyze the transport of solutes through the landscape, such as nitrate. However, many of these models cannot adequately capture the effect of groundwater flow paths, which can have long travel times and accumulate legacy contaminants, releasing them to streams over decades. If these long lag times are not accounted for, the short-term efficacy of management activities to reduce nitrogen loads may be overestimated. Models that adopt a simple 'well-mixed' assumption, leading to an exponential transit time distribution at steady state, cannot adequately capture the broadly skewed nature of groundwater transit times in typical watersheds. Here I will demonstrate how StorAge Selection functions can be used to capture the long lag times of groundwater in a typical subwatershed-based hydrologic model framework typical of models like SWAT, HSPF, HBV, PRMS and others. These functions can be selected and calibrated to reproduce historical data where available, but can also be fitted to the results of a steady-state groundwater transport model like MODFLOW/MODPATH, allowing those results to directly inform the parameterization of an unsteady surface water model. The long tails of the transit time distribution predicted by the groundwater model can then be completely captured by the surface water model. Examples of this application in the Chesapeake Bay watersheds and elsewhere will be given.

Complement activation by ligand-driven juxtaposition of discrete pattern recognition complexes

PubMed Central

Degn, Søren E.; Kjaer, Troels R.; Kidmose, Rune T.; Jensen, Lisbeth; Hansen, Annette G.; Tekin, Mustafa; Jensenius, Jens C.; Andersen, Gregers R.; Thiel, Steffen

2014-01-01

Defining mechanisms governing translation of molecular binding events into immune activation is central to understanding immune function. In the lectin pathway of complement, the pattern recognition molecules (PRMs) mannan-binding lectin (MBL) and ficolins complexed with the MBL-associated serine proteases (MASP)-1 and MASP-2 cleave C4 and C2 to generate C3 convertase. MASP-1 was recently found to be the exclusive activator of MASP-2 under physiological conditions, yet the predominant oligomeric forms of MBL carry only a single MASP homodimer. This prompted us to investigate whether activation of MASP-2 by MASP-1 occurs through PRM-driven juxtaposition on ligand surfaces. We demonstrate that intercomplex activation occurs between discrete PRM/MASP complexes. PRM ligand binding does not directly escort the transition of MASP from zymogen to active enzyme in the PRM/MASP complex; rather, clustering of PRM/MASP complexes directly causes activation. Our results support a clustering-based mechanism of activation, fundamentally different from the conformational model suggested for the classical pathway of complement. PMID:25197071

Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

2017-12-01

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River.The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume.In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas.The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).

From Decent Work to Decent Lives: Positive Self and Relational Management (PS&RM) in the Twenty-First Century

PubMed Central

Di Fabio, Annamaria; Kenny, Maureen E.

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study is to empirically test the theoretical model, Positive Self and Relational Management (PS&RM), for a sample of 184 Italian university students. The PS&RM model specifies the development of individuals' strengths, potentials, and talents across the lifespan and with regard to the dialect of self in relationship. PS&RM is defined theoretically by three constructs: Positive Lifelong Life Management, Positive Lifelong Self-Management, Positive Lifelong Relational Management. The three constructs are operationalized as follows: Positive Lifelong Life Management is measured by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), the Meaningful Life Measure (MLM), and the Authenticity Scale (AS); Positive Lifelong Self-Management is measured by the Intrapreneurial Self-Capital Scale (ISC), the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS), and the Life Project Reflexivity Scale (LPRS); and Positive Lifelong Relational Management is measured by the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire (TEIQue), the Multidimensional Scale for Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and the Positive Relational Management Scale (PRMS). Confirmatory factor analysis of the PS&RM model was completed using structural equation modeling. The theoretical PS&RM model was empirically tested as defined by the three hypothesized constructs. Empirical support for this model offers a framework for further research and the design of preventive interventions to promote decent work and decent lives in the twenty-first century. PMID:27047406

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.

Approach Towards an Evidence-Oriented Knowledge and Data Acquisition for the Optimization of Interdisciplinary Care in Dentistry and General Medicine.

PubMed

Seitz, Max W; Haux, Christian; Knaup, Petra; Schubert, Ingrid; Listl, Stefan

2018-01-01

Associations between dental and chronic-systemic diseases were observed frequently in medical research, however the findings of this research have so far found little relevance in everyday clinical treatment. Major problems are the assessment of evidence for correlations between such diseases and how to integrate current medical knowledge into the intersectoral care of dentists and general practitioners. On the example of dental and chronic-systemic diseases, the Dent@Prevent project develops an interdisciplinary decision support system (DSS), which provides the specialists with information relevant for the treatment of such cases. To provide the physicians with relevant medical knowledge, a mixed-methods approach is developed to acquire the knowledge in an evidence-oriented way. This procedure includes a literature review, routine data analyses, focus groups of dentists and general practitioners as well as the identification and integration of applicable guidelines and Patient Reported Measures (PRMs) into the treatment process. The developed mixed methods approach for an evidence-oriented knowledge acquisition indicates to be applicable and supportable for interdisciplinary projects. It can raise the systematic quality of the knowledge-acquisition process and can be applicable for an evidence-based system development. Further research is necessary to assess the impact on patient care and to evaluate possible applicability in other interdisciplinary areas.

Distributed snow data as a tool to inform water management decisions: Using Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) at the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park, City and County of San Francisco.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, C. B.

2016-12-01

The timing and magnitude of spring snowmelt and runoff is critical in managing reservoirs in the Western United States. The Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park provides drinking water for 2.6 million customers in over 30 communities in the San Francisco Bay Area. Power generation from Hetch Hetchy meets the municipal load of the City and County of San Francisco. Water from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is also released in the Tuolumne River, supporting critical ecosystems in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest. Better predictions of long (seasonal) and short (weekly) term streamflow allow for more secure water resource planning, earlier power generation and ecologically beneficial releases from the Reservoir. Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is fed by snow dominated watersheds in the Sierra Mountains. Better knowledge of snowpack conditions allow for better predictions of inflows, both at the seasonal and at the weekly time scales. The ASO project has provided the managers of Hetch Hetchy Reservoir with high resolution estimates of total snowpack and snowpack distribution in the 460 mi2 Hetch Hetchy. We show that there is a tight correlation between snowpack estimates and future streamflow, allowing earlier, more confident operational decisions. We also show how distributed SWE estimates were used to develop and test a hydrologic model of the system (PRMS). This model, calibrated directly to snowpack conditions, is shown to correctly simulate snowpack volume and distribution, as well as streamflow patterns.

Rationale and design of ASTEROID 2, a randomized, placebo- and active comparator-controlled study to assess the efficacy and safety of vilaprisan in patients with uterine fibroids.

PubMed

Seitz, Christian; Bumbuliene, Žana; Costa, Ana Rosa; Heikinheimo, Oskari; Heweker, Andrea; Hudeček, Robert; Jacquemyn, Yves; Melis, Gian Benedetto; Parashar, Pooja; Rechberger, Tomasz; Sánchez, Antonio Cano; van Aken, Bart; Zatik, János; Gemzell-Danielsson, Kristina

2017-04-01

Uterine fibroids (UFs) may be treated with progesterone receptor modulators (PRMs), which have been shown to reduce heavy menstrual bleeding and the size of UFs. To date, one PRM (ulipristal acetate) has received regulatory approval for the treatment of UFs; therapy comprises intermittent treatment courses of up to 3months each, followed by a break to allow two menstruations to occur. We report the design of ASTEROID (Assess Safety and efficacy of vilaprisan in patients with uTERine fibrOIDs) 2, a phase 2 study examining the efficacy and safety of a novel PRM, vilaprisan, in women with UFs. In this randomized multi-arm study, vilaprisan (2mg daily) will be administered in different regimens: continuous treatment for 12 or 24weeks, or two 12-week treatment periods separated by a break to allow one menstruation to occur. Efficacy and safety will be compared with that of ulipristal acetate (5mg daily) and placebo. Patients randomized to receive placebo for 12weeks will also be given active treatment for 12weeks. The primary measure of efficacy will be amenorrhoea rate; secondary measures include time to normalized menstrual bleeding and percentage change in UF volume. Endometrial changes will be monitored throughout the study. The placebo- and active comparator-controlled trial ASTEROID 2 is the first study to evaluate systematically the efficacy and safety of different treatment regimens of PRMs in women with UFs. The findings of this study will direct the planning of future clinical trials of vilaprisan. Copyright © 2017 Bayer AG. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supporting Collaborative Model and Data Service Development and Deployment with DevOps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, O.

2016-12-01

Adopting DevOps practices for model service development and deployment enables a community to engage in service-oriented modeling and data management. The Cloud Services Integration Platform (CSIP) developed the last 5 years at Colorado State University provides for collaborative integration of environmental models into scalable model and data services as a micro-services platform with API and deployment infrastructure. Originally developed to support USDA natural resource applications, it proved suitable for a wider range of applications in the environmental modeling domain. While extending its scope and visibility it became apparent community integration and adequate work flow support through the full model development and application cycle drove successful outcomes.DevOps provide best practices, tools, and organizational structures to optimize the transition from model service development to deployment by minimizing the (i) operational burden and (ii) turnaround time for modelers. We have developed and implemented a methodology to fully automate a suite of applications for application lifecycle management, version control, continuous integration, container management, and container scaling to enable model and data service developers in various institutions to collaboratively build, run, deploy, test, and scale services within minutes.To date more than 160 model and data services are available for applications in hydrology (PRMS, Hydrotools, CFA, ESP), water and wind erosion prediction (WEPP, WEPS, RUSLE2), soil quality trends (SCI, STIR), water quality analysis (SWAT-CP, WQM, CFA, AgES-W), stream degradation assessment (SWAT-DEG), hydraulics (cross-section), and grazing management (GRAS). In addition, supporting data services include soil (SSURGO), ecological site (ESIS), climate (CLIGEN, WINDGEN), land management and crop rotations (LMOD), and pesticides (WQM), developed using this workflow automation and decentralized governance.

Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and applications. We argue that the current state of climate science provides actionable information on climate risks in the region, and will articulate the need and required elements for a Saco-specific climate study request.

Unsteady Flow Simulations in Support of the SSME HEX Turning Vane Cracking Investigation with the ATD HPOTP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, N. S.; Burnette, D. W.; Holt, J. B.; Nesman, T.

1993-01-01

Unsteady flow computations are being performed with the P&W (ATD) and the Rocketdyne baseline configurations of the SSME LO2 turbine turnaround duct (TAD) and heat exchanger (HEX). The work is in support of the HEX inner turning vane cracking investigation. Fatigue cracking has occurred during hot firings with the P&W configuration on the HEX inner vane, and it appears the fix will involve changes to the TAD splitter vane position and to the TAD inner wall curvature to reduce the dynamic loading on the inner vane. Unsteady flow computations on the P&W baseline and fix and on the Rocketdyne baseline reference follow steady-flow screening computations done by MSFC/ED32 on several trial configurations arriving at the fix. The P&W TAD inlet velocity profile has a strong radial velocity component that directs the flow toward the inner wall and raises the local velocity a factor of two and the dynamic pressure a factor, of four. The fix is intended to redistribute the flow more evenly across the HEX inner and outer vanes like the Rocketdyne baseline reference. Vane buffeting at frequencies around 4,000 Hz is the leading suspected cause of the problem. Our simulations (work in progress) are being done with the USA 2D axisymmetric code approximating the flow as axisymmetric u+v 2D (axial, u, and radial, v, components only). The HEX coils are included in the model to make sure the fix does not adversely affect the HEX environment. Turbulent kinetic energy, k, levels where k = 1/2 v' rms2 are locally as high as 10,000 ft2/sec2 for the P&W baseline at the engine interface (between the TAD and HEX) at the HEX inner vane location. However, k is less than 8,000 on the HEX outer vane and only about 4,500 on the HEX inner vane for the Rocketdyne baseline. Unsteady turbulence intensity, v'rms/v, and pressure, p', are being computed in the present computations to compare with steady-flow Reynolds-averaged computations where p'rms = const (pk) for overall rms random turbulence from 0.1 to 12,000 Hz frequency. Random overall static, p'rms fluctuations as large as 1.7 psi are estimated from k on the HEX inner vane for the P&W baseline configuration but only about 0.7 psi for the Rocketdyne configuration.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

A Comparative Analysis of Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds on the New Jersey Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, J. A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to have an impact on precipitation patterns across the Mid-Atlantic with the likelihood of an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. A greater proportion of total annual precipitation could fall in larger events with the potential to impact flooding, storm water infrastructure, and water supply. The watersheds of the coastal plain of New Jersey draining to the Atlantic and Delaware Bay have mild slopes are underlain by very sandy soils. These areas serve as sources of recharge to the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is an important water supply for the region. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on stream flow and groundwater recharge in two watersheds located within the New Jersey coastal plain. The Batsto River watershed includes parts of the Pinelands Reserve with relatively little development in some its headwater areas, primarily small towns and agricultural land use. The Maurice River watershed includes several urbanized areas along with some agricultural land, but population is expecting to increase within the next 10-20 years. The Maurice River basin is outside the Pinelands Reserve but has significant area that contains Pine Barrens. Models were calibrated using observed stream flow from USGS gages and gridded meteorological data from 1995-2002 and validated with observed data from 2002-2005. The calibrated models were forced using an ensemble of three bias-corrected downscaled climate projections (CMIP5, NOAA NCEP, and ECHAM) to assess and compare the potential response of these two watersheds. All meteorological data were obtained online from the GeoData Portal. Preliminary results indicate that climate change is likely to have a greater impact on stream flow in the developed Maurice River basin than in the undeveloped Batsto River basin. More detailed analyses of stream flow and the potential impacts on groundwater recharge are ongoing. These models will serve as the basis of further research that will examine the potential impacts of land-use change and climate change on stream flow, stream temperature, and groundwater recharge.

Towards an improved understanding of hillslope runoff as a supply for groundwater recharge: Assessing hillslope runoff under regional deforestation and varying climate conditions in a drainage basin in central coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.

2017-12-01

We use a hydrologic model to analyze hillslope runoff under a range of climate and land use conditions in the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), central coastal California, including contemporary land use and incremental deforestation. The SLRB is a heavily forested watershed with chronically overdrafted aquifers; in some areas, groundwater levels have been lowered by >50 m in recent decades. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can help mitigate declines in groundwater storage, routing excess surface flows to locations where they can infiltrate. We are especially interested in opportunities for collection of stormwater runoff, particularly where development and other changes in landuse have increased hill slope runoff. To assess hillslope runoff at the subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 ac), we apply the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to a high-resolution, digital elevation model and populate the simulation with area- and density-weighted vegetation and soil parameters calculated from high resolution input data. We also develop and apply a catalog of dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from the historic record (1981-2014). In addition, we simulate conditions ranging from 0 to 100 percent of redwoods harvested (representing the mid-1800s to 1930s logging era) using a historical land use data set to alter soil and vegetation conditions. Results under contemporary land use suggest there are ample opportunities to establish MAR projects during all climate scenarios; hill slope runoff generation is spatially variable and on average exceeds 23,000 ac-ft/yr (3.2 in/yr) during the driest climate scenario. Preliminary results from the deforestation scenarios show notable increases in hillslope runoff with progressive redwood harvesting. Relative to pre-logging conditions, between 1.1 in (dry climates) and 1.5 in (wet climates) more runoff is generated under contemporary conditions, with most of the runoff increase occurring in urban areas. These modeling methods generate understanding of the impacts of changes in land use and vegetation, their sensitivity to differences in climate, and potential for developing MAR projects to benefit from increased stormwater generation.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are expressed robustly across methods versus those that are sensitive to method choice; which method choices seem relatively more important; and where strategic investments in research and development can substantially improve guidance on climate change provided to water managers.

Deformable image registration as a tool to improve survival prediction after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: results from the ACRIN 6657/I-SPY-1 trial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Weinstein, Susan P.; Pantalone, Lauren; Davatzikos, Christos; Kontos, Despina

2018-02-01

We examined the ability of DCE-MRI longitudinal features to give early prediction of recurrence-free survival (RFS) in women undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer, in a retrospective analysis of 106 women from the ISPY 1 cohort. These features were based on the voxel-wise changes seen in registered images taken before treatment and after the first round of chemotherapy. We computed the transformation field using a robust deformable image registration technique to match breast images from these two visits. Using the deformation field, parametric response maps (PRM) — a voxel-based feature analysis of longitudinal changes in images between visits — was computed for maps of four kinetic features (signal enhancement ratio, peak enhancement, and wash-in/wash-out slopes). A two-level discrete wavelet transform was applied to these PRMs to extract heterogeneity information about tumor change between visits. To estimate survival, a Cox proportional hazard model was applied with the C statistic as the measure of success in predicting RFS. The best PRM feature (as determined by C statistic in univariable analysis) was determined for each of the four kinetic features. The baseline model, incorporating functional tumor volume, age, race, and hormone response status, had a C statistic of 0.70 in predicting RFS. The model augmented with the four PRM features had a C statistic of 0.76. Thus, our results suggest that adding information on the texture of voxel-level changes in tumor kinetic response between registered images of first and second visits could improve early RFS prediction in breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

JUPITER: Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability - An Application Programming Interface (API) for Model Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, Edward R.; Poeter, Eileen P.; Doherty, John E.; Hill, Mary C.

2006-01-01

he Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability Application Programming Interface (JUPITER API) improves the computer programming resources available to those developing applications (computer programs) for model analysis.The JUPITER API consists of eleven Fortran-90 modules that provide for encapsulation of data and operations on that data. Each module contains one or more entities: data, data types, subroutines, functions, and generic interfaces. The modules do not constitute computer programs themselves; instead, they are used to construct computer programs. Such computer programs are called applications of the API. The API provides common modeling operations for use by a variety of computer applications.The models being analyzed are referred to here as process models, and may, for example, represent the physics, chemistry, and(or) biology of a field or laboratory system. Process models commonly are constructed using published models such as MODFLOW (Harbaugh et al., 2000; Harbaugh, 2005), MT3DMS (Zheng and Wang, 1996), HSPF (Bicknell et al., 1997), PRMS (Leavesley and Stannard, 1995), and many others. The process model may be accessed by a JUPITER API application as an external program, or it may be implemented as a subroutine within a JUPITER API application . In either case, execution of the model takes place in a framework designed by the application programmer. This framework can be designed to take advantage of any parallel processing capabilities possessed by the process model, as well as the parallel-processing capabilities of the JUPITER API.Model analyses for which the JUPITER API could be useful include, for example: Compare model results to observed values to determine how well the model reproduces system processes and characteristics.Use sensitivity analysis to determine the information provided by observations to parameters and predictions of interest.Determine the additional data needed to improve selected model predictions.Use calibration methods to modify parameter values and other aspects of the model.Compare predictions to regulatory limits.Quantify the uncertainty of predictions based on the results of one or many simulations using inferential or Monte Carlo methods.Determine how to manage the system to achieve stated objectives.The capabilities provided by the JUPITER API include, for example, communication with process models, parallel computations, compressed storage of matrices, and flexible input capabilities. The input capabilities use input blocks suitable for lists or arrays of data. The input blocks needed for one application can be included within one data file or distributed among many files. Data exchange between different JUPITER API applications or between applications and other programs is supported by data-exchange files.The JUPITER API has already been used to construct a number of applications. Three simple example applications are presented in this report. More complicated applications include the universal inverse code UCODE_2005 (Poeter et al., 2005), the multi-model analysis MMA (Eileen P. Poeter, Mary C. Hill, E.R. Banta, S.W. Mehl, and Steen Christensen, written commun., 2006), and a code named OPR_PPR (Matthew J. Tonkin, Claire R. Tiedeman, Mary C. Hill, and D. Matthew Ely, written communication, 2006).This report describes a set of underlying organizational concepts and complete specifics about the JUPITER API. While understanding the organizational concept presented is useful to understanding the modules, other organizational concepts can be used in applications constructed using the JUPITER API.

Linking collection of stormwater runoff to managed aquifer recharge using a geographic information system and hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teo, E. K.; Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.; Lozano, S.; Weir, W. B.; Harmon, R. E.

2016-12-01

We are completing a regional analysis of Santa Cruz and northern Monterey Counties, CA to assess conditions for using distributed stormwater collection to support managed aquifer recharge (DSC-MAR). DSC-MAR constitutes an important component in a portfolio of innovative techniques being developed in order to improve groundwater management and to adapt to prolonged drought and changes in climate and anthropogenic water demands by increasing recharge during and soon after winter precipitation events, the season when excess water is most abundant. Our analyses focus specifically on the distributed collection of stormwater runoff, a source that has historically been treated as a nuisance, with the goal of infiltrating ≥100 ac-ft/yr within individual projects. The first part of this project is a spatial analysis, using a geographic information system to combine surface and subsurface data. There is complete spatial coverage for most surface data (elevation, soil and bedrock properties, land use) for the full study region ( 1,400 km2), but subsurface data (aquifer distribution, properties, and storage space) are available for only 43% of the region. Sites that are most suitable for DSC-MAR have high soil infiltration capacity, are well-connected to an underlying aquifer with good transmissive and storage properties, and have space to receive water. Based on surface data, 35% of the region is suitable for MAR (480 km2). In contrast, 14% of the area for which both surface and subsurface datasets are available is suitable for MAR (84 km2). We have assessed the availability of hillslope runoff for collection in support of MAR using a distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) and a catalog of historical, high-resolution climate data. In the simulations, enclosed topographic basins are divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) having an area of 25 to 250 acres (0.1 to 1 km2). Simulations of the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), northern Santa Cruz County, suggest that during years of normal precipitation, 12% of the region is composed of HRUs that are both suitable for MAR and generate at least 100 acre-feet of runoff per year. These criteria are met by 5% of the SLRB in dry years and 19% in wet years. Collectively, these results suggest that the DSC-MAR approach can help to sustain groundwater resources over the long term.

Query-based biclustering of gene expression data using Probabilistic Relational Models.

PubMed

Zhao, Hui; Cloots, Lore; Van den Bulcke, Tim; Wu, Yan; De Smet, Riet; Storms, Valerie; Meysman, Pieter; Engelen, Kristof; Marchal, Kathleen

2011-02-15

With the availability of large scale expression compendia it is now possible to view own findings in the light of what is already available and retrieve genes with an expression profile similar to a set of genes of interest (i.e., a query or seed set) for a subset of conditions. To that end, a query-based strategy is needed that maximally exploits the coexpression behaviour of the seed genes to guide the biclustering, but that at the same time is robust against the presence of noisy genes in the seed set as seed genes are often assumed, but not guaranteed to be coexpressed in the queried compendium. Therefore, we developed ProBic, a query-based biclustering strategy based on Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) that exploits the use of prior distributions to extract the information contained within the seed set. We applied ProBic on a large scale Escherichia coli compendium to extend partially described regulons with potentially novel members. We compared ProBic's performance with previously published query-based biclustering algorithms, namely ISA and QDB, from the perspective of bicluster expression quality, robustness of the outcome against noisy seed sets and biological relevance.This comparison learns that ProBic is able to retrieve biologically relevant, high quality biclusters that retain their seed genes and that it is particularly strong in handling noisy seeds. ProBic is a query-based biclustering algorithm developed in a flexible framework, designed to detect biologically relevant, high quality biclusters that retain relevant seed genes even in the presence of noise or when dealing with low quality seed sets.

Simulation of groundwater flow and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Willamette Basin and Central Willamette subbasin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrera, Nora B.; Burns, Erick R.; Conlon, Terrence D.

2014-01-01

Full appropriation of tributary streamflow during summer, a growing population, and agricultural needs are increasing the demand for groundwater in the Willamette Basin. Greater groundwater use could diminish streamflow and create seasonal and long-term declines in groundwater levels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) cooperated in a study to develop a conceptual and quantitative understanding of the groundwater-flow system of the Willamette Basin with an emphasis on the Central Willamette subbasin. This final report from the cooperative study describes numerical models of the regional and local groundwater-flow systems and evaluates the effects of pumping on groundwater and surface‑water resources. The models described in this report can be used to evaluate spatial and temporal effects of pumping on groundwater, base flow, and stream capture. The regional model covers about 6,700 square miles of the 12,000-square mile Willamette and Sandy River drainage basins in northwestern Oregon—referred to as the Willamette Basin in this report. The Willamette Basin is a topographic and structural trough that lies between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range and is divided into five sedimentary subbasins underlain and separated by basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (Columbia River basalt) that crop out as local uplands. From north to south, these five subbasins are the Portland subbasin, the Tualatin subbasin, the Central Willamette subbasin, the Stayton subbasin, and the Southern Willamette subbasin. Recharge in the Willamette Basin is primarily from precipitation in the uplands of the Cascade Range, Coast Range, and western Cascades areas. Groundwater moves downward and laterally through sedimentary or basalt units until it discharges locally to wells, evapotranspiration, or streams. Mean annual groundwater withdrawal for water years 1995 and 1996 was about 400 cubic feet per second; irrigation withdrawals accounted for about 80 percent of that total. The upper 180 feet of productive aquifers in the Central Willamette and Southern Willamette subbasins produced about 70 percent of the total pumped volume. In this study, the USGS constructed a three-dimensional numerical finite-difference groundwater-flow model of the Willamette Basin representing the six hydrogeologic units, defined in previous investigations, as six model layers. From youngest to oldest, and [generally] uppermost to lowermost they are the: upper sedimentary unit, Willamette silt unit, middle sedimentary unit, lower sedimentary unit, Columbia River basalt unit, and basement confining unit. The high Cascade unit is not included in the groundwater-flow model because it is not present within the model boundaries. Geographic boundaries are simulated as no-flow (no water flowing in or out of the model), except where the Columbia River is simulated as a constant hydraulic head boundary. Streams are designated as head-dependent-flux boundaries, in which the flux depends on the elevation of the stream surface. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a watershed model that accounts for evapotranspiration from the unsaturated zone. Evapotranspiration from the saturated zone was not considered an important component of groundwater discharge. Well pumping was simulated as specified flux and included public supply, irrigation, and industrial pumping. Hydraulic conductivity values were estimated from previous studies through aquifer slug and permeameter tests, specific capacity data, core analysis, and modeling. Upper, middle and lower sedimentary unit horizontal hydraulic conductivity values were differentiated between the Portland subbasin and the Tualatin, Central Willamette, and Southern Willamette subbasins based on preliminary model results.

Use of a watershed-modeling approach to assess hydrologic effects of urbanization, North Fork Pheasant Branch basin near Middleton, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steuer, Jeffrey J.; Hunt, R.J.

2001-01-01

The North Fork Pheasant Branch Basin in Dane County, Wisconsin is expected to undergo development. There are concerns that development will adversely affect water resources with increased flood peaks, increased runoff volumes, and increased pollutant loads. To provide a scientific basis for evaluating the hydrologic system response to development the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to model the upper Pheasant Branch Creek watershed with an emphasis on the North Fork Basin. The upper Pheasant Branch Creek (18.3 mi2; 11,700 acres) Basin was represented with 21 Hydrologic Response Units (daily time step) and 50 flow planes (5-minute time steps). Precipitation data from the basin outlet streamflow-gaging station located at Highway 12 and temperature data from a nearby airport were used to drive the model. Continuous discharge records at three gaging stations were used for model calibration. To qualitatively assess model representation of small subbasins, periodic reconnaissance, often including a depth measurement, was made after precipitation to determine the occurrence of flow in ditches and channels from small subbasins. As a further effort to verify the model on a small subbasin scale, continuous-stage sensors (15-minute intervals) measured depth at the outlets of three small subbasins (500 to 1,200 acres). Average annual precipitation for the simulation period from 1993 to 1998 was 35.2 inches. The model simulations showed that, on average, 23.9 inches were intercepted by vegetation, or lost to evapotranspiration, 6.0 inches were infiltrated and moved to the regional ground-water system, and 4.8 inches contributed to the upper Pheasant Branch streamflow. The largest runoff event during the calibration interval was in July 1993 (746 ft3/sec; with a recurrence interval of approximately 25 years). Resulting recharge rates from the calibrated model were subsequently used as input into a ground-water-flow model. Average annual recharge varied spatially from 2.3 inches per year in the highly impervious commercial/industrial area to 9.7 inches per year in the undeveloped North Fork Basin with an average overall recharge rate of 8.1 inches per year. Two development scenarios were examined to assess changes in water-budget fluxes. In scenario A, when development was predominantly low-density residential with 5 to 10 percent commercial development along principal roadways, mean annual streamflow increased by 53 percent, overland flow increased by 84 percent, base flow decreased by 15 percent and annual recharge to the regional ground-water system was reduced by 10 percent. In development scenario B, the entire North Fork and intervening area basins contained 50 percent commercial and 50 percent medium density residential land use. Annual storm runoff increased by over 450 percent. The ground-water model for the Pheasant Branch that used the scenario B recharge rates simulated a lowered water table with zero base flow and that flow from Frederick Springs would be reduced 26 percent from present-day (1993?98) conditions.An additional example application of the model evaluated locations of flood detention ponds and potential recharge areas that may mitigate the changes in flood peaks and ground-water recharge resulting from urbanization. From February 1998 through July 1998, water-quality samples were collected by use of stage-activated automated samplers. Median suspended- sediment concentrations were similar between the North and South Fork Basins (194 and 242 mg/L, respectively); however, for other constituents, North Fork values were considerably higher: median phosphorus concentrations by 4 times (1.5 and 0.35 mg/L), median ammonia concentrations by 13 times (1.9 and 0.14 mg/L), and the phosphorus-to-sediment ratio by more than 6 times (21 and 3.1 mg/g).

Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

2015-10-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a decrease of the lowest flows, except for the SWAT model with the mean hydrological impact climate change scenario. The results of this study indicate that besides the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios also the hydrological model structure uncertainty should be taken into account in the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology. To make it more straightforward and transparent to include model structural uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, there is a need for hydrological modelling tools that allow flexible structures and methods to validate model structures in their ability to assess impacts under unobserved future climatic conditions.

Determining Multiple Sclerosis Phenotype from Electronic Medical Records.

PubMed

Nelson, Richard E; Butler, Jorie; LaFleur, Joanne; Knippenberg, Kristin; C Kamauu, Aaron W; DuVall, Scott L

2016-12-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS), a central nervous system disease in which nerve signals are disrupted by scarring and demyelination, is classified into phenotypes depending on the patterns of cognitive or physical impairment progression: relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), primary-progressive MS (PPMS), secondary-progressive MS (SPMS), or progressive-relapsing MS (PRMS). The phenotype is important in managing the disease and determining appropriate treatment. The ICD-9-CM code 340.0 is uninformative about MS phenotype, which increases the difficulty of studying the effects of phenotype on disease. To identify MS phenotype using natural language processing (NLP) techniques on progress notes and other clinical text in the electronic medical record (EMR). Patients with at least 2 ICD-9-CM codes for MS (340.0) from 1999 through 2010 were identified from nationwide EMR data in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Clinical experts were interviewed for possible keywords and phrases denoting MS phenotype in order to develop a data dictionary for NLP. For each patient, NLP was used to search EMR clinical notes, since the first MS diagnosis date for these keywords and phrases. Presence of phenotype-related keywords and phrases were analyzed in context to remove mentions that were negated (e.g., "not relapsing-remitting") or unrelated to MS (e.g., "RR" meaning "respiratory rate"). One thousand mentions of MS phenotype were validated, and all records of 150 patients were reviewed for missed mentions. There were 7,756 MS patients identified by ICD-9-CM code 340.0. MS phenotype was identified for 2,854 (36.8%) patients, with 1,836 (64.3%) of those having just 1 phenotype mentioned in their EMR clinical notes: 1,118 (39.2%) RRMS, 325 (11.4%) PPMS, 374 (13.1%) SPMS, and 19 (0.7%) PRMS. A total of 747 patients (26.2%) had 2 phenotypes, the most common being 459 patients (16.1%) with RRMS and SPMS. A total of 213 patients (7.5%) had 3 phenotypes, and 58 patients (2.0%) had 4 phenotypes mentioned in their EMR clinical notes. Positive predictive value of phenotype identification was 93.8% with sensitivity of 94.0%. Phenotype was documented for slightly more than one third of MS patients, an important but disappointing finding that sets a limit on studying the effects of phenotype on MS in general. However, for cases where the phenotype was documented, NLP accurately identified the phenotypes. Having multiple phenotypes documented is consistent with disease progression. The most common misidentification was because of ambiguity while clinicians were trying to determine phenotype. This study brings attention to the need for care providers to document MS phenotype more consistently and provides a solution for capturing phenotype from clinical text. This study was funded by Anolinx and F. Hoffman-La Roche. Nelson serves as a consultant for Anolinx. Kamauu is owner of Anolinx, which has received multiple research grants from pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. LaFleur has received a Novartis grant for ongoing work. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Department of Veterans Affairs or the U.S. government. Study concept and design were contributed by Butler, LaFleur, Kamauu, DuVall, and Nelson. DuVall collected the data, and interpretation was performed by Nelson, DuVall, and Kamauu, along with Butler, LaFleur, and Knippenberg. The manuscript was written primarily by Nelson, along with Knippenberg and assisted by the other authors, and revised by Knippenberg, Nelson, and DuVall, along with the other authors.

Stability limits of superhydrophobic longitudinal microgrooves in high Reynolds number turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastegari, Amirreza; Akhavan, Rayhaneh

2017-11-01

The stability of the liquid/gas interfaces on SuperHydrophobic (SH) Longitudinal MicroGrooves (LMGs) in high Reynolds number turbulent flows of practical interest is investigated by analytical extrapolation of DNS results in turbulent channel flow at Reτ0 222 and 442 with SH LMGs at protrusion angle of θ = -30o . Given that the magnitude of pressure fluctuations in turbulent channel flow scales as prms+ √{ ln(Reτ) } , it is found that the stability limits of SH LMGs diminishes by factors of 4 when the Reynolds number of the base flow increases from Reτ0 200 of DNS to Reτ0 105 -106 of practical applications. For SH LMGs operating at Weber numbers of We+0 ≡ μuτ0 / σ 3 ×10-3 - 1.5 ×10-2 , corresponding to friction velocities of uτ0 0.2 - 1 m/s, this limits the size of stable LMGs to g+0 5 - 30 at Reτ0 105 and g+0 4 - 20 at Reτ0 106 , and the maximum drag reductions to DRmax 20 - 30 % at Reτ0 105 and DRmax 10 - 20 % at Reτ0 106 .

A Comparison of Risk Sensitive Path Planning Methods for Aircraft Emergency Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meuleau, Nicolas; Plaunt, Christian; Smith, David E.; Smith, Tristan

2009-01-01

Determining the best site to land a damaged aircraft presents some interesting challenges for standard path planning techniques. There are multiple possible locations to consider, the space is 3-dimensional with dynamics, the criteria for a good path is determined by overall risk rather than distance or time, and optimization really matters, since an improved path corresponds to greater expected survival rate. We have investigated a number of different path planning methods for solving this problem, including cell decomposition, visibility graphs, probabilistic road maps (PRMs), and local search techniques. In their pure form, none of these techniques have proven to be entirely satisfactory - some are too slow or unpredictable, some produce highly non-optimal paths or do not find certain types of paths, and some do not cope well with the dynamic constraints when controllability is limited. In the end, we are converging towards a hybrid technique that involves seeding a roadmap with a layered visibility graph, using PRM to extend that roadmap, and using local search to further optimize the resulting paths. We describe the techniques we have investigated, report on our experiments with these techniques, and discuss when and why various techniques were unsatisfactory.

Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2011-01-01

As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was developed by the National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. During 2010, the USGS used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to create a hydrologic model for the Lake Michigan Basin to assess the probable effects of climate change on future groundwater and surface-water resources. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) model and the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) program also were used to support USGS GLRI projects that required estimates of streamflows throughout the Great Lakes Basin. This information on existing watershed models, along with an assessment of geologic, soils, and land-use data across the Great Lakes Basin and the identification of problems that exist in selected tributary watersheds that could be addressed by a watershed model, was used to identify three watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin for future modeling by the USGS. These watersheds are the Kalamazoo River Basin in Michigan, the Tonawanda Creek Basin in New York, and the Bad River Basin in Wisconsin. These candidate watersheds have hydrogeologic, land-type, and soil characteristics that make them distinct from each other, but that are representative of other tributary watersheds within the Great Lakes Basin. These similarities in the characteristics among nearby watersheds will enhance the usefulness of a model by improving the likelihood that parameter values from a previously modeled watershed could reliably be used in the creation of a model of another watershed in the same region. The software program Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) was selected to simulate the hydrologic, sedimentary, and water-quality processes in these selected watersheds. HSPF is a versatile, process-based, continuous-simulation model that has been used extensively by the scientific community, has the ongoing technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and USGS, and provides a means to evaluate the effects that land-use changes or management practices might have on the simulated processes.

Experimental and numerical investigation of the turbulent wake flow of a generic space launcher configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Statnikov, V.; Saile, D.; Meiß, J.-H.; Henckels, A.; Meinke, M.; Gülhan, A.; Schröder, W.

2015-06-01

The turbulent wake of a generic space launcher at cold hypersonic freestream conditions is investigated experimentally and numerically to gain detailed insight into the intricate base flow phenomena of space vehicles at upper stages of the flight trajectory. The experiments are done at Ma∞ = 6 and ReD = 1.7 · 106 m-1 by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the corresponding computations are performed by the Institute of Aerodynamics Aachen using a zonal Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes / Large-Eddy Simulation (RANS/LES) approach. Two different aft-body geometries consisting of a blunt base and an attached cylindrical nozzle dummy are considered. It is found that the wind tunnel model support attached to the upper side of the main body has a nonnegligible impact on the wake along the whole circumference, albeit on the opposite side, the effects are minimal compared to an axisymmetric configuration. In the blunt-base case, the turbulent supersonic boundary layer undergoes a strong aftexpansion on the model shoulder leading to the formation of a confined low-pressure (p/p∞ ≈ 0.2) recirculation region. Adding a nozzle dummy causes the shear layer to reattach on the its wall at x/D ˜ 0.6 and the base pressure level to increase (p/p∞ ≈ 0.25) compared to the blunt-base case. For both configurations, the pressure fluctuations on the base wall feature dominant frequencies at SrD ≈ 0.05 and SrD ≈ 0.2-0.27, but are of small amplitudes (prms/p∞ = 0.02-0.025) compared to the main body boundary layer. For the nozzle dummy configuration, when moving downstream along the nozzle extension, the wall pressure is increasingly influenced by the reattaching shear layer and the periodic low-frequency behavior becomes less pronounced. Directly behind the reattachment point, the wall pressure reaches maximum mean and root-mean-square (rms) values of about p/p∞ = 1 and p'rms/p∞ = 0.1 and features a broadband specrms trum without distinct frequencies determined by the incoming turbulent supersonic boundary layer.

Semi-supervised prediction of SH2-peptide interactions from imbalanced high-throughput data.

PubMed

Kundu, Kousik; Costa, Fabrizio; Huber, Michael; Reth, Michael; Backofen, Rolf

2013-01-01

Src homology 2 (SH2) domains are the largest family of the peptide-recognition modules (PRMs) that bind to phosphotyrosine containing peptides. Knowledge about binding partners of SH2-domains is key for a deeper understanding of different cellular processes. Given the high binding specificity of SH2, in-silico ligand peptide prediction is of great interest. Currently however, only a few approaches have been published for the prediction of SH2-peptide interactions. Their main shortcomings range from limited coverage, to restrictive modeling assumptions (they are mainly based on position specific scoring matrices and do not take into consideration complex amino acids inter-dependencies) and high computational complexity. We propose a simple yet effective machine learning approach for a large set of known human SH2 domains. We used comprehensive data from micro-array and peptide-array experiments on 51 human SH2 domains. In order to deal with the high data imbalance problem and the high signal-to-noise ration, we casted the problem in a semi-supervised setting. We report competitive predictive performance w.r.t. state-of-the-art. Specifically we obtain 0.83 AUC ROC and 0.93 AUC PR in comparison to 0.71 AUC ROC and 0.87 AUC PR previously achieved by the position specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) based SMALI approach. Our work provides three main contributions. First, we showed that better models can be obtained when the information on the non-interacting peptides (negative examples) is also used. Second, we improve performance when considering high order correlations between the ligand positions employing regularization techniques to effectively avoid overfitting issues. Third, we developed an approach to tackle the data imbalance problem using a semi-supervised strategy. Finally, we performed a genome-wide prediction of human SH2-peptide binding, uncovering several findings of biological relevance. We make our models and genome-wide predictions, for all the 51 SH2-domains, freely available to the scientific community under the following URLs: http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH2PepInt/SH2PepInt.tar.gz and http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SH2PepInt/Genome-wide-predictions.tar.gz, respectively.

In Vitro Toxicity Assessment Technique for Volatile ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is tasked with evaluating the human health, environmental, and wildlife effects of over 80,000 chemicals registered for use in the environment and commerce. The challenge is that sparse chemical data exists; traditional toxicity testing methods are slow, costly, involve animal studies, and cannot keep up with a chemical registry that typically grows by at least 1000 chemicals every year. In recent years, High Throughput Screening (HTS) has been used in order to prioritize chemicals for traditional toxicity screening or to complement traditional toxicity studies. HTS is an in vitro approach of rapidly assaying a large number of chemicals for biochemical activity using robotics and automation. However, no method currently exists for screening volatile chemicals such as air pollutants in a HTS fashion. Additionally, significant uncertainty regarding in vitro to in in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) remains. An approach to bridge the IVIVE gap and the current lack of ability to screen volatile chemicals in a HTS fashion is by using a probe molecule (PrM) technique. The proposed technique uses chemicals with empirical human pharmacokinetic data as PrMs to study toxicity of molecules with no known data for gas-phase analysis. We are currently studying the xenobiotic-metabolizing enzyme CYP2A6 using transfected BEAS-2B bronchial epithelial cell line. The CYP2A6 pathway activity is studied by the formation of cotinine from nicot

HIV-1 Tat binds to SH3 domains: cellular and viral outcome of Tat/Grb2 interaction

PubMed Central

Rom, Slava; Pacifici, Marco; Passiatore, Giovanni; Aprea, Susanna; Waligorska, Agnieszka; Valle, Luis Del; Peruzzi, Francesca

2011-01-01

The Src-homology 3 (SH3) domain is one of the most frequent protein recognition modules (PRMs), being represented in signal transduction pathways and in several pathologies such as cancer and AIDS. Grb2 (growth factor receptor-bound protein 2) is an adaptor protein that contains two SH3 domains and is involved in receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) signal transduction pathways. The HIV-1 transactivator factor Tat is required for viral replication and it has been shown to bind directly or indirectly to several host proteins, deregulating their functions. In this study, we show interaction between the cellular factor Grb2 and the HIV-1 trans-activating protein Tat. The binding is mediated by the proline-rich sequence of Tat and the SH3 domain of Grb2. As the adaptor protein Grb2 participates in a wide variety of signaling pathways, we characterized at least one of the possible downstream effects of the Tat/Grb2 interaction on the well-known IGF-1R/Raf/MAPK cascade. We show that the binding of Tat to Grb2 impairs activation of the Raf/MAPK pathway, while potentiating the PKA/Raf inhibitory pathway. The Tat/Grb2 interaction affects also viral function by inhibiting the Tat-mediated transactivation of HIV-1 LTR and viral replication in infected primary microglia. PMID:21745501

Hydrologic conditions and assessment of water resources in the Turkey Creek watershed, Jefferson County, Colorado, 1998-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bossong, Clifford R.; Caine, Jonathan S.; Stannard, David I.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Stevens, Michael R.; Heiny-Dash, Janet S.

2003-01-01

The 47.2-square-mile Turkey Creek watershed, in Jefferson County southwest of Denver, Colorado, is relatively steep with about 4,000 feet of relief and is in an area of fractured crystalline rocks of Precambrian age. Water needs for about 4,900 households in the watershed are served by domestic wells and individual sewage-disposal systems. Hydrologic conditions are described on the basis of contemporary hydrologic and geologic data collected in the watershed from early spring 1998 through September 2001. The water resources are assessed using discrete fracture-network modeling to estimate porosity and a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed runoff model to develop estimates of water-balance terms. A variety of climatologic and hydrologic data were collected. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration indicate that a large amount (3 calendar-year mean of 82.9 percent) of precipitation is returned to the atmosphere. Surface-water records from January 1, 1999, through September 30, 2001, indicate that about 9 percent of precipitation leaves the watershed as streamflow in a seasonal pattern, with highest streamflows generally occurring in spring related to snowmelt and precipitation. Although conditions vary considerably within the watershed, overall watershed streamflow, based on several records collected during the 1940's, 1950's, 1980', and 1990's near the downstream part of watershed, can be as high as about 200 cubic feet per second on a daily basis during spring. Streamflow typically recedes to about 1 cubic foot per second or less during rainless periods and is rarely zero. Ground-water level data indicate a seasonal pattern similar to that of surface water in which water levels are highest, rising tens of feet in some locations, in the spring and then receding during rainless periods at relatively constant rates until recharged. Synoptic measurements of water levels in 131 mostly domestic wells in fall of 2001 indicate a water-table surface that conforms to topography. Analyses of reported well-construction records indicate a median reported well yield of 4 gallons per minute and a spatial distribution for reported well yield that has relatively uniform conditions of small-scale variability. Results from quarterly samples collected in water year 1999 at about 112 wells and 22 streams indicate relatively concentrated calcium-bicarbonate to calcium-chloride type water that has a higher concentration of chloride than would be expected on the basis of chloride content in precipitation and evapotranspiration rates. Comparison of the 1999 data to similar data collected in the 1970's indicates that concentrations for many constituents appear to have increased. Reconnaissance sampling in the fall of 2000 indicates that most ground water in the watershed was recharged recently, although some ground water was recharged more than 50 years ago. Additional reconnaissance sampling in the spring and fall of 2001 identified some compounds indicative of human wastewater in ground water and surface water. Outcrop fracture measurements were used to estimate potential porosities in three rock groups (metamorphic, intrusive, and fault zone) that have distinct fracture characteristics. The characterization, assuming a uniform aperture size of 100 microns, indicates very low potential fracture porosities, on the order of hundredths of a percent for metamorphic and intrusive rocks and up to about 2 percent for fault-zone rocks. A fourth rock group, Pikes Peak Granite, was defined on the basis of weathering characteristics. Short-term continuous and synoptic measurements of streamflow were used to describe base-flow characteristics in areas of the watershed underlain by each of the four rock groups and are the basis for characterization of base flow in a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed model. The watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), was used to characterize hydrologic conditions

Effects of a novel estrogen-free, progesterone receptor modulator contraceptive vaginal ring on inhibition of ovulation, bleeding patterns and endometrium in normal women.

PubMed

Brache, Vivian; Sitruk-Ware, Regine; Williams, Alistair; Blithe, Diana; Croxatto, Horacio; Kumar, Narender; Kumar, Sushma; Tsong, Yun-Yen; Sivin, Irving; Nath, Anita; Sussman, Heather; Cochon, Leila; Miranda, Maria Jose; Reyes, Verónica; Faundes, Anibal; Mishell, Daniel

2012-05-01

Progesterone receptor modulators (PRMs) delivered by contraceptive vaginal rings provide an opportunity for development of an estrogen-free contraceptive that does not require daily oral intake of steroids. The objective of this proof-of-concept study was to determine whether continuous delivery of 600-800 mcg of ulipristal acetate (UPA) from a contraceptive vaginal ring could achieve 80% to 90% inhibition of ovulation. This was a prospective, controlled, open-labeled, multicenter international trial to examine the effectiveness and safety of this prototype vaginal ring. Thirty-nine healthy women, 21-40 years old and not at risk of pregnancy, were enrolled at three clinic sites. Volunteers participated in a control cycle, a 12-week treatment period and a post-treatment cycle. Pharmacodynamic effects on follicular function and inhibition of ovulation, effects on endometrium, bleeding patterns and serum UPA levels were evaluated. Mean UPA levels during treatment were nearly constant, approximately 5.1 ng/mL throughout the study. Ovulation was documented in 32% of 111 "4-week treatment cycles." A correlation was observed between serum UPA and degree of inhibition of ovarian activity. There was no evidence of hyperplasia of endometrium, but PRM-associated endometrial changes were frequently observed (41%). In this study, the minimum effective contraceptive dose was not established. Further studies are required testing higher doses of UPA to attain ovulation suppression in a higher percentage of subjects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of a novel estrogen-free, progesterone receptor modulator contraceptive vaginal ring on inhibition of ovulation, bleeding patterns and endometrium in normal women

PubMed Central

Brache, Vivian; Sitruk-Ware, Regine; Williams, Alistair; Blithe, Diana; Croxatto, Horacio; Kumar, Narender; Kumar, Sushma; Tsong, Yun-Yen; Sivin, Irving; Nath, Anita; Sussman, Heather; Cochon, Leila; Miranda, Maria Jose; Reyes, Verónica; Faundes, Anibal; Mishell, Daniel

2012-01-01

Background Progesterone receptor modulators (PRMs) delivered by contraceptive vaginal rings provide an opportunity for development of an estrogen-free contraceptive that does not require daily oral intake of steroids. The objective of this proof-of-concept study was to determine whether continuous delivery of 600–800 mcg of ulipristal acetate (UPA) from a contraceptive vaginal ring could achieve 80% to 90% inhibition of ovulation. Study Design This was a prospective, controlled, open-labeled, multicenter international trial to examine the effectiveness and safety of this prototype vaginal ring. Thirty-nine healthy women, 21–40 years old and not at risk of pregnancy, were enrolled at three clinic sites. Volunteers participated in a control cycle, a 12-week treatment period and a post-treatment cycle. Pharmacodynamic effects on follicular function and inhibition of ovulation, effects on endometrium, bleeding patterns and serum UPA levels were evaluated. Results Mean UPA levels during treatment were nearly constant, approximately 5.1 ng/mL throughout the study. Ovulation was documented in 32% of 111 “4-week treatment cycles.” A correlation was observed between serum UPA and degree of inhibition of ovarian activity. There was no evidence of hyperplasia of endometrium, but PRM-associated endometrial changes were frequently observed (41%). Conclusion In this study, the minimum effective contraceptive dose was not established. Further studies are required testing higher doses of UPA to attain ovulation suppression in a higher percentage of subjects. PMID:22176795

Effects of ulipristal acetate on human embryo attachment and endometrial cell gene expression in an in vitro co-culture system.

PubMed

Berger, C; Boggavarapu, N R; Menezes, J; Lalitkumar, P G L; Gemzell-Danielsson, K

2015-04-01

Does ulipristal acetate (UPA) used for emergency contraception (EC) interfere with the human embryo implantation process? UPA, at the dosage used for EC, does not affect human embryo implantation process, in vitro. A single pre-ovulatory dose of UPA (30 mg) acts by delaying or inhibiting ovulation and is recommended as first choice among emergency contraceptive pills due to its efficacy. The compound has also been demonstrated to have a dose-dependent effect on the endometrium, which theoretically could impair endometrial receptivity but its direct action on human embryo implantation has not yet been studied. Effect of UPA on embryo implantation process was studied in an in vitro endometrial construct. Human embryos were randomly added to the cultures and cultured for 5 more days with UPA (n = 10) or with vehicle alone (n = 10) to record the attachment of embryos. Endometrial biopsies were obtained from healthy, fertile women on cycle day LH+4 and stromal and epithelial cells were isolated. A three-dimensional in vitro endometrial co-culture system was constructed by mixing stromal cells with collagen covered with a layer of epithelial cells and cultured in progesterone containing medium until confluence. The treatment group received 200 ng/ml of UPA. Healthy, viable human embryos were placed on both control and treatment cultures. Five days later the cultures were tested for the attachment of embryos and the 3D endometrial constructs were analysed for endometrial receptivity markers by real-time PCR. There was no significant difference in the embryo attachment rate between the UPA treated group and the control group as 5 out of 10 human embryos exposed to UPA and 7 out of 10 embryos in the control group attached to the endometrial cell surface (P = 0.650). Out of 17 known receptivity genes studied here, only 2 genes, HBEGF (P = 0.009) and IL6 (P = 0.025) had a significant up-regulation and 4 genes, namely HAND2 (P = 0.003), OPN (P = 0.003), CALCR (P = 0.016) and FGF2 (P = 0.023) were down-regulated with the exposure of UPA, compared with control group. This proof of concept study was conducted with a few human embryos, as their availability was limited. Although the 3D model used for this study is well established and the artificial endometrial luminal epithelium shown to express progesterone regulated markers of endometrial receptivity it is still an in vitro model, lacking all cell types that constitute the receptive endometrium in vivo. This study provides new insights on the mechanism of action of UPA on human embryo implantation, demonstrating that UPA in a dosage used for EC does not affect embryo viability and the implantation process of embryo. Progesterone receptor modulators (PRMs) hold the potential to be attractive estrogen- and gestagen-free contraceptives and thus may be made available to a larger proportion of women globally due to these findings. Swedish Research Council (K2010-54X-14212-09-3) and support provided through the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research (ALF) between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska University Hospital. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nucleotide variability of protamine genes influencing bull sperm motility variables.

PubMed

H M, Yathish; Kumar, Subodh; Chaudhary, Rajni; Mishra, Chinmoy; A, Sivakumar; Kumar, Amit; Chauhan, Anuj; Ghosh, S K; Mitra, Abhijit

2018-06-01

Protamines (PRMs), important proteins of chromatin condensation in spermiogenesis, are promising candidate genes to explore markers of sperm motility. The coding and in-silico predicted promoter regions of these genes were investigated in 102 crossbred and 32 purebred cattle. Also, mRNA quantification was done to explore its possibility as diagnostic tool of infertility. The PCR-SSCP analysis indicated there were two band patterns only in fragment I of the PRM1 and fragment II of the PRM2 gene. The sequence analysis revealed A152G and G179A transitions in the PRM1 gene. Similarly, G35A, A49G and A64G transitions were identified in the PRM2 gene which resulted in altered amino acid sequences from arginine (R) to glutamine (Q), from arginine (R) to glycine (G) and from arginine (R) to glycine (G), respectively. This caused the reduction in molecular weight of PRM2 from 2157.66 to 1931.33 Da due to reduction in the number of basic amino acids. These altered properties of the PRM2 protein led to the reduction in Mass Motility (MM: P < 0.01), Initial Progressive Motility (IPM; P < 0.05) and Post Thaw Motility (PTM; P < 0.05) in crossbred bulls. The least squares analysis of variance indicated there was an effect of PRM2 haplotypes on MM (P = 0.0069), IPM (P = 0.0306) and PTM (P = 0.0500) in crossbred cattle and on PTM (P = 0.0408) in the overall cattle population. Based on the RT-qPCR analysis, however, there was not any significant variation of PRM1 and PRM2 gene expression among sperm of Vrindavani bulls with relatively lesser and greater sperm motility. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Mobile Phone Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Fields on.

PubMed

Umar, Z U; Abubakar, M B; Ige, J; Igbokwe, U V; Mojiminiyi, F B O; Isezuo, S A

2014-12-29

Since cell phones emit radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (EMFs), this study tested the hypothesis that cell phones placed near the heart may interfere with the electrical rhythm of the heart or affect the blood pressure. Following informed consent, eighteen randomly selected apparently healthy male volunteers aged 21.44 ± 0.53 years had their blood pressure, pulse rates and ECG measured before and after acute exposure to a cell phone. The ECG parameters obtained were: heart rate (HR), QRS complex duration (QRS), PR interval (PR) and Corrected QT interval (QTc). Results are presented as mean ± SEM. Statistical analyses were done using two-tailed paired t test for blood pressure and pulse rate data and one way ANOVA with a post hoc Tukey test for the ECG data. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. The blood pressure and pulse rates before and after exposure to the cell phone showed no significant difference. The ECG parameters (HR: beats/min, QRS:ms, PR:ms and QTc respectively) did not differ before (66.33 ± 2.50, 91.78 ± 1.36, 151.67 ± 5.39 and 395.44 ± 4.96), during (66.33 ± 2.40, 91.11 ± 1.61, 153.67 ± 5.06 and 394.33 ± 4.05) and after calls (67.22 ± 2.77, 91.11 ± 1.67, 157.44 ± 4.46 and 396.56 ± 4.93) compared to baseline (67.17 ± 2.19, 94.33 ± 1.57, 150.56 ± 4.93 and 399.56 ± 3.88). These results suggest that acute exposure to EMFs from cell phones placed near the heart may not interfere with the electrical activity of the heart or blood pressure in healthy individuals.

Assessing potential effects of changes in water use with a numerical groundwater-flow model of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Maurer, Douglas K.; Mayers, C.J.

2012-01-01

Rapid growth and development within Carson Valley in Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California, has caused concern over the continued availability of groundwater, and whether the increased municipal demand could either impact the availability of water or result in decreased flow in the Carson River. Annual pumpage of groundwater has increased from less than 10,000 acre feet per year (acre-ft/yr) in the 1970s to about 31,000 acre-ft/yr in 2004, with most of the water used in agriculture. Municipal use of groundwater totaled about 10,000 acre-feet in 2000. In comparison, average streamflow entering the valley from 1940 to 2006 was 344,100 acre-ft/yr, while average flow exiting the valley was 297,400 acre-ft/yr. Carson Valley is underlain by semi-consolidated Tertiary sediments that are exposed on the eastern side and dip westward. Quaternary fluvial and alluvial deposits overlie the Tertiary sediments in the center and western side of the valley. The hydrology of Carson Valley is dominated by the Carson River, which supplies irrigation water for about 39,000 acres of farmland and maintains the water table less than 5 feet (ft) beneath much of the valley floor. Perennial and ephemeral watersheds drain the Carson Range and the Pine Nut Mountains, and mountain-front recharge to the groundwater system from these watersheds is estimated to average 36,000 acre-ft/yr. Groundwater in Carson Valley flows toward the Carson River and north toward the outlet of the Carson Valley. An upward hydraulic gradient exists over much of the valley, and artesian wells flow at land surface in some areas. Water levels declined as much as 15 ft since 1980 in some areas on the eastern side of the valley. Median estimated transmissivities of Quaternary alluvial-fan and fluvial sediments, and Tertiary sediments are 316; 3,120; and 110 feet squared per day (ft2/d), respectively, with larger transmissivity values in the central part of the valley and smaller values near the valley margins. A groundwater-flow model of Quaternary and Tertiary sediments in Carson Valley was developed using MODFLOW and calibrated to simulate historical conditions from water years 1971 through 2005. The 35-year transient simulation represented quarterly changes in precipitation, streamflow, pumping and irrigation. Inflows to the groundwater system simulated in the model include mountain-front recharge from watersheds in the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains, valley recharge from precipitation and land application of wastewater, agricultural recharge from irrigation, and septic-tank discharge. Outflows from the groundwater system simulated in the model include evapotranspiration from the water table and groundwater withdrawals for municipal, domestic, irrigation and other water supplies. The exchange of water between groundwater, the Carson River, and the irrigation system was represented with a version of the Streamflow Routing (SFR) package that was modified to apply diversions from the irrigation network to irrigated areas as recharge. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated through nonlinear regression with UCODE to measured water levels and streamflow to estimate values of hydraulic conductivity, recharge and streambed hydraulic-conductivity that were represented by 18 optimized parameters. The aquifer system was simulated as confined to facilitate numerical convergence, and the hydraulic conductivity of the top active model layers that intersect the water table was multiplied by a factor to account for partial saturation. Storage values representative of specific yield were specified in parts of model layers where unconfined conditions are assumed to occur. The median transmissivity (T) values (11,000 and 800 ft2/d for the fluvial and alluvial-fan sediments, respectively) are both within the third quartile of T values estimated from specific-capacity data, but T values for Tertiary sediments are larger than the third quartile estimated from specific-capacity data. The estimated vertical anisotropy for the Quaternary fluvial sediments (9,000) is comparable to the value estimated for a previous model of Carson Valley. The estimated total volume of mountain-front recharge is equivalent to a previous estimate from the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, but less recharge is estimated for the Carson Range and more recharge is estimated for the Pine Nut Mountains than the previous estimate. Simulated flow paths indicate that groundwater flows faster through the center of Carson Valley and slower through the lower hydraulic-conductivity Tertiary sediments to the east. Shallow flow in the center of the valley is towards drainage channels, but deeper flow is generally directed toward the basin outlet to the north. The aquifer system is in a dynamic equilibrium with large inflows from storage in dry years and large outflows to storage in wet years. Pumping has historically been less than 10 percent of outflows from the groundwater system, and agricultural recharge has been less than 10 percent of inflows to the groundwater system. Three principal sources of uncertainty that affect model results are: (1) the hydraulic characteristics of the Tertiary sediments on the eastern side of the basin, (2) the composition of sediments beneath the alluvial fans and (3) the extent of the confining unit represented within fluvial sediments in the center of the basin. The groundwater-flow model was used in five 55-year predictive simulations to evaluate the long-term effects of different water-use scenarios on water-budget components, groundwater levels, and streamflow in the Carson River. The predictive simulations represented water years 2006 through 2060 using quarterly stress periods with boundary conditions that varied cyclically to represent the transition from wet to dry conditions observed from water years 1995 through 2004. The five scenarios included a base scenario with 2005 pumping rates held constant throughout the simulation period and four other scenarios using: (1) pumping rates increased by 70 percent, including an additional 1,340 domestic wells, (2A) pumping rates more than doubled with municipal pumping increased by a factor of four over the base scenario, (2B) pumping rates of 2A with 2,040 fewer domestic wells, and (3) pumping rates of 2A with 3,700 acres removed from irrigation. The 55-year predictive simulations indicate that increasing groundwater withdrawals under the scenarios considered would result in as much as 40 ft and 60 ft of water-table decline on the west and east sides of Carson Valley, respectively. The water table in the central part of the valley would remain essentially unchanged, but water-level declines of as much as 30 ft are predicted for the deeper, confined aquifer. The increased withdrawals would reduce the volume of groundwater storage and decrease the mean downstream flow in the Carson River by as much as 16,500 acre-ft/yr. If, in addition, 3,700 acres were removed from irrigation, the reduction in mean downstream flow in the Carson River would be only 6,500 acre-ft/yr. The actual amount of flow reduction is uncertain because of potential changes in irrigation practices that may not be accounted for in the model. The projections of the predictive simulations are sensitive to rates of mountain-front recharge specified for the Carson Range and the Pine Nut Mountains. The model provides a tool that can be used to aid water managers and planners in making informed decisions. A prudent management approach would include continued monitoring of water levels on both the east and west sides of Carson Valley to either verify the predictions of the groundwater-flow model or to provide additional data for recalibration of the model if the predictions prove inaccurate.

Essential oils and Beauveria bassiana against Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae): Towards new natural acaricides.

PubMed

Immediato, Davide; Figueredo, Luciana Aguiar; Iatta, Roberta; Camarda, Antonio; de Luna, Rafaela Lira Nogueira; Giangaspero, Annunziata; Brandão-Filho, Sinval Pinto; Otranto, Domenico; Cafarchia, Claudia

2016-10-15

Essential oils (EOs) and entomopathogenic fungi such as Beauveria bassiana (Bb) strains have the potential to be used as alternative insecticides and acaricides for controlling ectoparasites as Dermanyssus gallinae. These compounds have some limitations in their use: the acaricidal effect of EOs is rapid, but short-lived, whilst that of Bb is delayed, but long-lived. To evaluate the effect of both compounds combined against D. gallinae, the non-toxic dose of Eucalyptus globulus, Eucalyptus citriodora, Thymus vulgaris and Eugenia caryophyllata essential oils were firstly calculated for "native" strains of Bb. Subsequently, the effects of the combination of selected EOs with Bb against nymph and adult poultry red mites (PRMs) was assessed. EO concentrations ranging from 0.0015 to 8% v/v (i.e., nine double dilutions) were used to evaluate their effect on germination, sporulation and vegetative growth rates of native strains of Bb. A total of 1440 mites (720 nymphs and 720 adults) were divided into three-treated group (TGs) and one control group (CG). In TGs, mites were exposed to Bb in combination with the selected EO (TG1), EO alone (TG2) or Bb (TG3) alone. In the CG, mites were exposed to 0.1% tween 80 plus EO solvent (CG). E. globulus and E. citriodora were toxic for Bb in concentrations higher than 0.2% and 0.003% respectively, whilst E. caryophyllata and T. vulgaris were toxic at all concentrations tested against Bb. Based on the results of the toxicity assays against Bb, E. globulus was chosen to be tested as acaricide resulting non-toxic for Bb at concentration lower than 0.4%. Increased mortality of D. gallinae adults was recorded in TG1 than those in other TGs from 4days post-infection (T+4DPI). A 100% mortality of D. gallinae was recorded in adults at T+9DPI and at T+10DPI in nymphs in TG1 and later than T+11DPI in the other TGs. Used in combination with E. globulus, Bb displayed an earlier acaricidal effect towards both haematophagous D. gallinae stages. The combination of B. bassiana and E. globulus at 0.2% might be used for controlling arthropods of medical and veterinary importance as D. gallinae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuous system modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cellier, Francois E.

1991-01-01

A comprehensive and systematic introduction is presented for the concepts associated with 'modeling', involving the transition from a physical system down to an abstract description of that system in the form of a set of differential and/or difference equations, and basing its treatment of modeling on the mathematics of dynamical systems. Attention is given to the principles of passive electrical circuit modeling, planar mechanical systems modeling, hierarchical modular modeling of continuous systems, and bond-graph modeling. Also discussed are modeling in equilibrium thermodynamics, population dynamics, and system dynamics, inductive reasoning, artificial neural networks, and automated model synthesis.

Feature-based component model for design of embedded systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, Xuan Fang; Sriram, Ram D.

2004-11-01

An embedded system is a hybrid of hardware and software, which combines software's flexibility and hardware real-time performance. Embedded systems can be considered as assemblies of hardware and software components. An Open Embedded System Model (OESM) is currently being developed at NIST to provide a standard representation and exchange protocol for embedded systems and system-level design, simulation, and testing information. This paper proposes an approach to representing an embedded system feature-based model in OESM, i.e., Open Embedded System Feature Model (OESFM), addressing models of embedded system artifacts, embedded system components, embedded system features, and embedded system configuration/assembly. The approach provides an object-oriented UML (Unified Modeling Language) representation for the embedded system feature model and defines an extension to the NIST Core Product Model. The model provides a feature-based component framework allowing the designer to develop a virtual embedded system prototype through assembling virtual components. The framework not only provides a formal precise model of the embedded system prototype but also offers the possibility of designing variation of prototypes whose members are derived by changing certain virtual components with different features. A case study example is discussed to illustrate the embedded system model.

The Value of SysML Modeling During System Operations: A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dutenhoffer, Chelsea; Tirona, Joseph

2013-01-01

System models are often touted as engineering tools that promote better understanding of systems, but these models are typically created during system design. The Ground Data System (GDS) team for the Dawn spacecraft took on a case study to see if benefits could be achieved by starting a model of a system already in operations. This paper focuses on the four steps the team undertook in modeling the Dawn GDS: defining a model structure, populating model elements, verifying that the model represented reality, and using the model to answer system-level questions and simplify day-to-day tasks. Throughout this paper the team outlines our thought processes and the system insights the model provided.

The value of SysML modeling during system operations: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutenhoffer, C.; Tirona, J.

System models are often touted as engineering tools that promote better understanding of systems, but these models are typically created during system design. The Ground Data System (GDS) team for the Dawn spacecraft took on a case study to see if benefits could be achieved by starting a model of a system already in operations. This paper focuses on the four steps the team undertook in modeling the Dawn GDS: defining a model structure, populating model elements, verifying that the model represented reality, and using the model to answer system-level questions and simplify day-to-day tasks. Throughout this paper the team outlines our thought processes and the system insights the model provided.

A Model-Driven Visualization Tool for Use with Model-Based Systems Engineering Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trase, Kathryn; Fink, Eric

2014-01-01

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) promotes increased consistency between a system's design and its design documentation through the use of an object-oriented system model. The creation of this system model facilitates data presentation by providing a mechanism from which information can be extracted by automated manipulation of model content. Existing MBSE tools enable model creation, but are often too complex for the unfamiliar model viewer to easily use. These tools do not yet provide many opportunities for easing into the development and use of a system model when system design documentation already exists. This study creates a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) Document Traceability Framework (SDTF) for integrating design documentation with a system model, and develops an Interactive Visualization Engine for SysML Tools (InVEST), that exports consistent, clear, and concise views of SysML model data. These exported views are each meaningful to a variety of project stakeholders with differing subjects of concern and depth of technical involvement. InVEST allows a model user to generate multiple views and reports from a MBSE model, including wiki pages and interactive visualizations of data. System data can also be filtered to present only the information relevant to the particular stakeholder, resulting in a view that is both consistent with the larger system model and other model views. Viewing the relationships between system artifacts and documentation, and filtering through data to see specialized views improves the value of the system as a whole, as data becomes information

Communication system modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, L. D.; Walsh, J. R., Jr.; Wetherington, R. D.

1971-01-01

This report presents the results of work on communications systems modeling and covers three different areas of modeling. The first of these deals with the modeling of signals in communication systems in the frequency domain and the calculation of spectra for various modulations. These techniques are applied in determining the frequency spectra produced by a unified carrier system, the down-link portion of the Command and Communications System (CCS). The second modeling area covers the modeling of portions of a communication system on a block basis. A detailed analysis and modeling effort based on control theory is presented along with its application to modeling of the automatic frequency control system of an FM transmitter. A third topic discussed is a method for approximate modeling of stiff systems using state variable techniques.

Adaptive System Modeling for Spacecraft Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Justin

2011-01-01

This invention introduces a methodology and associated software tools for automatically learning spacecraft system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques were used to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). Evaluation on historical ISS telemetry data shows that adaptive system modeling reduces simulation error anywhere from 50 to 90 percent over existing approaches. The purpose of the methodology is to outline how someone can create accurate system models from sensor (telemetry) data. The purpose of the software is to support the methodology. The software provides analysis tools to design the adaptive models. The software also provides the algorithms to initially build system models and continuously update them from the latest streaming sensor data. The main strengths are as follows: Creates accurate spacecraft system models without in-depth system knowledge or any assumptions about system behavior. Automatically updates/calibrates system models using the latest streaming sensor data. Creates device specific models that capture the exact behavior of devices of the same type. Adapts to evolving systems. Can reduce computational complexity (faster simulations).

Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2018-02-01

Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

A novel simulation theory and model system for multi-field coupling pipe-flow system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yang; Jiang, Fan; Cai, Guobiao; Xu, Xu

2017-09-01

Due to the lack of a theoretical basis for multi-field coupling in many system-level models, a novel set of system-level basic equations for flow/heat transfer/combustion coupling is put forward. Then a finite volume model of quasi-1D transient flow field for multi-species compressible variable-cross-section pipe flow is established by discretising the basic equations on spatially staggered grids. Combining with the 2D axisymmetric model for pipe-wall temperature field and specific chemical reaction mechanisms, a finite volume model system is established; a set of specific calculation methods suitable for multi-field coupling system-level research is structured for various parameters in this model; specific modularisation simulation models can be further derived in accordance with specific structures of various typical components in a liquid propulsion system. This novel system can also be used to derive two sub-systems: a flow/heat transfer two-field coupling pipe-flow model system without chemical reaction and species diffusion; and a chemical equilibrium thermodynamic calculation-based multi-field coupling system. The applicability and accuracy of two sub-systems have been verified through a series of dynamic modelling and simulations in earlier studies. The validity of this system is verified in an air-hydrogen combustion sample system. The basic equations and the model system provide a unified universal theory and numerical system for modelling and simulation and even virtual testing of various pipeline systems.

Rule-based simulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

1991-01-01

Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

What can formal methods offer to digital flight control systems design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Good, Donald I.

1990-01-01

Formal methods research begins to produce methods which will enable mathematic modeling of the physical behavior of digital hardware and software systems. The development of these methods directly supports the NASA mission of increasing the scope and effectiveness of flight system modeling capabilities. The conventional, continuous mathematics that is used extensively in modeling flight systems is not adequate for accurate modeling of digital systems. Therefore, the current practice of digital flight control system design has not had the benefits of extensive mathematical modeling which are common in other parts of flight system engineering. Formal methods research shows that by using discrete mathematics, very accurate modeling of digital systems is possible. These discrete modeling methods will bring the traditional benefits of modeling to digital hardware and hardware design. Sound reasoning about accurate mathematical models of flight control systems can be an important part of reducing risk of unsafe flight control.

Component model reduction via the projection and assembly method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernard, Douglas E.

1989-01-01

The problem of acquiring a simple but sufficiently accurate model of a dynamic system is made more difficult when the dynamic system of interest is a multibody system comprised of several components. A low order system model may be created by reducing the order of the component models and making use of various available multibody dynamics programs to assemble them into a system model. The difficulty is in choosing the reduced order component models to meet system level requirements. The projection and assembly method, proposed originally by Eke, solves this difficulty by forming the full order system model, performing model reduction at the the system level using system level requirements, and then projecting the desired modes onto the components for component level model reduction. The projection and assembly method is analyzed to show the conditions under which the desired modes are captured exactly; to the numerical precision of the algorithm.

The System of Systems Architecture Feasibility Assessment Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

OF SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT MODEL by Stephen E. Gillespie June 2016 Dissertation Supervisor Eugene Paulo THIS PAGE...Dissertation 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE THE SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT MODEL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Stephen E...SoS architecture feasibility assessment model (SoS-AFAM). Together, these extend current model- based systems engineering (MBSE) and SoS engineering

Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warner, J.C.; Perlin, N.; Skyllingstad, E.D.

2008-01-01

Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Virtual Observation System for Earth System Model: An Application to ACME Land Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Dali; Yuan, Fengming; Hernandez, Benjamin

Investigating and evaluating physical-chemical-biological processes within an Earth system model (EMS) can be very challenging due to the complexity of both model design and software implementation. A virtual observation system (VOS) is presented to enable interactive observation of these processes during system simulation. Based on advance computing technologies, such as compiler-based software analysis, automatic code instrumentation, and high-performance data transport, the VOS provides run-time observation capability, in-situ data analytics for Earth system model simulation, model behavior adjustment opportunities through simulation steering. A VOS for a terrestrial land model simulation within the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy model is also presentedmore » to demonstrate the implementation details and system innovations.« less

Virtual Observation System for Earth System Model: An Application to ACME Land Model Simulations

DOE PAGES

Wang, Dali; Yuan, Fengming; Hernandez, Benjamin; ...

2017-01-01

Investigating and evaluating physical-chemical-biological processes within an Earth system model (EMS) can be very challenging due to the complexity of both model design and software implementation. A virtual observation system (VOS) is presented to enable interactive observation of these processes during system simulation. Based on advance computing technologies, such as compiler-based software analysis, automatic code instrumentation, and high-performance data transport, the VOS provides run-time observation capability, in-situ data analytics for Earth system model simulation, model behavior adjustment opportunities through simulation steering. A VOS for a terrestrial land model simulation within the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy model is also presentedmore » to demonstrate the implementation details and system innovations.« less

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

2015-01-01

Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

The Commercial Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is an energy demand modeling system of the world commercial end?use sector at a regional level. This report describes the version of the Commercial Model that was used to produce the commercial sector projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). The Commercial Model is one of 13 components of the WEPS system. The WEPS is a modular system, consisting of a number of separate energy models that are communicate and work with each other through an integrated system model. The model components are each developed independently, but are designed with well?defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS modeling system uses a shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS system uses an iterative solution technique that forces convergence of consumption and supply pressures to solve for an equilibrium price.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

PubMed

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

DOE PAGES

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; ...

2016-08-22

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open-source terms or to credentialed users. Furthermore, the ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the United States. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)more » Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. Our shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multiagency development of coupled modeling systems; controlled experimentation and testing; and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model.« less

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open-source terms or to credentialed users. Furthermore, the ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the United States. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)more » Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. Our shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multiagency development of coupled modeling systems; controlled experimentation and testing; and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model.« less

Computer-aided operations engineering with integrated models of systems and operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Ryan, Dan; Fleming, Land

1994-01-01

CONFIG 3 is a prototype software tool that supports integrated conceptual design evaluation from early in the product life cycle, by supporting isolated or integrated modeling, simulation, and analysis of the function, structure, behavior, failures and operation of system designs. Integration and reuse of models is supported in an object-oriented environment providing capabilities for graph analysis and discrete event simulation. Integration is supported among diverse modeling approaches (component view, configuration or flow path view, and procedure view) and diverse simulation and analysis approaches. Support is provided for integrated engineering in diverse design domains, including mechanical and electro-mechanical systems, distributed computer systems, and chemical processing and transport systems. CONFIG supports abstracted qualitative and symbolic modeling, for early conceptual design. System models are component structure models with operating modes, with embedded time-related behavior models. CONFIG supports failure modeling and modeling of state or configuration changes that result in dynamic changes in dependencies among components. Operations and procedure models are activity structure models that interact with system models. CONFIG is designed to support evaluation of system operability, diagnosability and fault tolerance, and analysis of the development of system effects of problems over time, including faults, failures, and procedural or environmental difficulties.

Research on complex 3D tree modeling based on L-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen; Bin, Chen; Yuming, Liu; Hui, Li

2018-03-01

L-system as a fractal iterative system could simulate complex geometric patterns. Based on the field observation data of trees and knowledge of forestry experts, this paper extracted modeling constraint rules and obtained an L-system rules set. Using the self-developed L-system modeling software the L-system rule set was parsed to generate complex tree 3d models.The results showed that the geometrical modeling method based on l-system could be used to describe the morphological structure of complex trees and generate 3D tree models.

Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

About Regional Energy Deployment System Model-ReEDS | Regional Energy

Science.gov Websites

Deployment System Model | Energy Analysis | NREL About Regional Energy Deployment System Model -ReEDS About Regional Energy Deployment System Model-ReEDS The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS ) is a long-term, capacity-expansion model for the deployment of electric power generation technologies

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

Analysis about modeling MEC7000 excitation system of nuclear power unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guangshi; Sun, Zhiyuan; Dou, Qian; Liu, Mosi; Zhang, Yihui; Wang, Xiaoming

2018-02-01

Aiming at the importance of accurate modeling excitation system in stability calculation of nuclear power plant inland and lack of research in modeling MEC7000 excitation system,this paper summarize a general method to modeling and simulate MEC7000 excitation system. Among this method also solve the key issues of computing method of IO interface parameter and the conversion process of excitation system measured model to BPA simulation model. At last complete the simulation modeling of MEC7000 excitation system first time in domestic. By used No-load small disturbance check, demonstrates that the proposed model and algorithm is corrective and efficient.

System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support. A Model for a Potable Water System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Witkowski, M.

2005-12-01

The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary interdependencies. These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines its behavior. In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts, when perturbations occur to the system. The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models. We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.

THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

PubMed Central

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; Wallcraft, A.; Iredell, M.; Black, T.; da Silva, AM; Clune, T.; Ferraro, R.; Li, P.; Kelley, M.; Aleinov, I.; Balaji, V.; Zadeh, N.; Jacob, R.; Kirtman, B.; Giraldo, F.; McCarren, D.; Sandgathe, S.; Peckham, S.; Dunlap, R.

2017-01-01

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open source terms or to credentialed users. The ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the U.S. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. This shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multi-agency development of coupled modeling systems, controlled experimentation and testing, and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NavGEM), HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. PMID:29568125

THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability.

PubMed

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C; Campbell, T; Liu, F; Saint, K; Vertenstein, M; Chen, J; Oehmke, R; Doyle, J; Whitcomb, T; Wallcraft, A; Iredell, M; Black, T; da Silva, A M; Clune, T; Ferraro, R; Li, P; Kelley, M; Aleinov, I; Balaji, V; Zadeh, N; Jacob, R; Kirtman, B; Giraldo, F; McCarren, D; Sandgathe, S; Peckham, S; Dunlap, R

2016-07-01

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open source terms or to credentialed users. The ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the U.S. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. This shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multi-agency development of coupled modeling systems, controlled experimentation and testing, and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NavGEM), HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS ® ); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model.

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.;

Watershed System Model: The Essentials to Model Complex Human-Nature System at the River Basin Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong; Lin, Hui; Cai, Ximing; Fang, Miao; Ge, Yingchun; Hu, Xiaoli; Chen, Min; Li, Weiyue

2018-03-01

Watershed system models are urgently needed to understand complex watershed systems and to support integrated river basin management. Early watershed modeling efforts focused on the representation of hydrologic processes, while the next-generation watershed models should represent the coevolution of the water-land-air-plant-human nexus in a watershed and provide capability of decision-making support. We propose a new modeling framework and discuss the know-how approach to incorporate emerging knowledge into integrated models through data exchange interfaces. We argue that the modeling environment is a useful tool to enable effective model integration, as well as create domain-specific models of river basin systems. The grand challenges in developing next-generation watershed system models include but are not limited to providing an overarching framework for linking natural and social sciences, building a scientifically based decision support system, quantifying and controlling uncertainties, and taking advantage of new technologies and new findings in the various disciplines of watershed science. The eventual goal is to build transdisciplinary, scientifically sound, and scale-explicit watershed system models that are to be codesigned by multidisciplinary communities.

System Operations Studies : Feeder System Model. User's Manual.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-11-01

The Feeder System Model (FSM) is one of the analytic models included in the System Operations Studies (SOS) software package developed for urban transit systems analysis. The objective of the model is to assign a proportion of the zone-to-zone travel...

A model for plant lighting system selection.

PubMed

Ciolkosz, D E; Albright, L D; Sager, J C; Langhans, R W

2002-01-01

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.

Rethinking the Systems Engineering Process in Light of Design Thinking

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

systems engineering process models (Blanchard & Fabrycky, 1990) and the majority of engineering design education (Dym et al., 2005). The waterfall model ...Engineering Career Competency Model Clifford Whitcomb, Systems Engineering Professor, NPS Corina White, Systems Engineering Research Associate, NPS...Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, CA. He teaches and conducts research in the design of enterprise systems, systems modeling , and system

Modeling in the Classroom: An Evolving Learning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Few, A. A.; Marlino, M. R.; Low, R.

2006-12-01

Among the early programs (early 1990s) focused on teaching Earth System Science were the Global Change Instruction Program (GCIP) funded by NSF through UCAR and the Earth System Science Education Program (ESSE) funded by NASA through USRA. These two programs introduced modeling as a learning tool from the beginning, and they provided workshops, demonstrations and lectures for their participating universities. These programs were aimed at university-level education. Recently, classroom modeling is experiencing a revival of interest. Drs John Snow and Arthur Few conducted two workshops on modeling at the ESSE21 meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, in August 2005. The Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE) at http://www.dlese.org provides web access to STELLA models and tutorials, and UCAR's Education and Outreach (EO) program holds workshops that include training in modeling. An important innovation to the STELLA modeling software by isee systems, http://www.iseesystems.com, called "isee Player" is available as a free download. The Player allows users to view and run STELLA models, change model parameters, share models with colleagues and students, and make working models available on the web. This is important because the expert can create models, and the user can learn how the modeled system works. Another aspect of this innovation is that the educational benefits of modeling concepts can be extended throughout most of the curriculum. The procedure for building a working computer model of an Earth Science System follows this general format: (1) carefully define the question(s) for which you seek the answer(s); (2) identify the interacting system components and inputs contributing to the system's behavior; (3) collect the information and data that will be required to complete the conceptual model; (4) construct a system diagram (graphic) of the system that displays all of system's central questions, components, relationships and required inputs. At this stage in the process the conceptual model of the system is compete and a clear understanding of how the system works is achieved. When appropriate software is available the advanced classes can proceed to (5) creating a computer model of the system and testing the conceptual model. For classes lacking these advanced capabilities they may view and run models using the free isee Player and shared working models. In any event there is understanding to be gained in every step of the procedure outlined above. You can view some examples at http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~few/. We plan to populate this site with samples of Earth science systems for use in Earth system science education.

ASTP ranging system mathematical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, M. R.; Robinson, L. H.

1973-01-01

A mathematical model is presented of the VHF ranging system to analyze the performance of the Apollo-Soyuz test project (ASTP). The system was adapted for use in the ASTP. The ranging system mathematical model is presented in block diagram form, and a brief description of the overall model is also included. A procedure for implementing the math model is presented along with a discussion of the validation of the math model and the overall summary and conclusions of the study effort. Detailed appendices of the five study tasks are presented: early late gate model development, unlock probability development, system error model development, probability of acquisition and model development, and math model validation testing.

Strategic preparedness for recovery from catastrophic risks to communities and infrastructure systems of systems.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2012-11-01

Natural and human-induced disasters affect organizations in myriad ways because of the inherent interconnectedness and interdependencies among human, cyber, and physical infrastructures, but more importantly, because organizations depend on the effectiveness of people and on the leadership they provide to the organizations they serve and represent. These human-organizational-cyber-physical infrastructure entities are termed systems of systems. Given the multiple perspectives that characterize them, they cannot be modeled effectively with a single model. The focus of this article is: (i) the centrality of the states of a system in modeling; (ii) the efficacious role of shared states in modeling systems of systems, in identification, and in the meta-modeling of systems of systems; and (iii) the contributions of the above to strategic preparedness, response to, and recovery from catastrophic risk to such systems. Strategic preparedness connotes a decision-making process and its associated actions. These must be: implemented in advance of a natural or human-induced disaster, aimed at reducing consequences (e.g., recovery time, community suffering, and cost), and/or controlling their likelihood to a level considered acceptable (through the decisionmakers' implicit and explicit acceptance of various risks and tradeoffs). The inoperability input-output model (IIM), which is grounded on Leontief's input/output model, has enabled the modeling of interdependent subsystems. Two separate modeling structures are introduced. These are: phantom system models (PSM), where shared states constitute the essence of modeling coupled systems; and the IIM, where interdependencies among sectors of the economy are manifested by the Leontief matrix of technological coefficients. This article demonstrates the potential contributions of these two models to each other, and thus to more informative modeling of systems of systems schema. The contributions of shared states to this modeling and to systems identification are presented with case studies. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling and control design of a wind tunnel model support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howe, David A.

1990-01-01

The 12-Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel at Ames Research Center is being restored. A major part of the restoration is the complete redesign of the aircraft model supports and their associated control systems. An accurate trajectory control servo system capable of positioning a model (with no measurable overshoot) is needed. Extremely small errors in scaled-model pitch angle can increase airline fuel costs for the final aircraft configuration by millions of dollars. In order to make a mechanism sufficiently accurate in pitch, a detailed structural and control-system model must be created and then simulated on a digital computer. The model must contain linear representations of the mechanical system, including masses, springs, and damping in order to determine system modes. Electrical components, both analog and digital, linear and nonlinear must also be simulated. The model of the entire closed-loop system must then be tuned to control the modes of the flexible model-support structure. The development of a system model, the control modal analysis, and the control-system design are discussed.

Research on simulation of supercritical steam turbine system in large thermal power station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qiongyang

2018-04-01

In order to improve the stability and safety of supercritical steam turbine system operation in large thermal power station, the body of the steam turbine is modeled in this paper. And in accordance with the hierarchical modeling idea, the steam turbine body model, condensing system model, deaeration system model and regenerative system model are combined to build a simulation model of steam turbine system according to the connection relationship of each subsystem of steam turbine. Finally, the correctness of the model is verified by design and operation data of the 600MW supercritical unit. The results show that the maximum simulation error of the model is 2.15%, which meets the requirements of the engineering. This research provides a platform for the research on the variable operating conditions of the turbine system, and lays a foundation for the construction of the whole plant model of the thermal power plant.

Electromagnetic interference modeling and suppression techniques in variable-frequency drive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Le; Wang, Shuo; Feng, Jianghua

2017-11-01

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) causes electromechanical damage to the motors and degrades the reliability of variable-frequency drive (VFD) systems. Unlike fundamental frequency components in motor drive systems, high-frequency EMI noise, coupled with the parasitic parameters of the trough system, are difficult to analyze and reduce. In this article, EMI modeling techniques for different function units in a VFD system, including induction motors, motor bearings, and rectifierinverters, are reviewed and evaluated in terms of applied frequency range, model parameterization, and model accuracy. The EMI models for the motors are categorized based on modeling techniques and model topologies. Motor bearing and shaft models are also reviewed, and techniques that are used to eliminate bearing current are evaluated. Modeling techniques for conventional rectifierinverter systems are also summarized. EMI noise suppression techniques, including passive filter, Wheatstone bridge balance, active filter, and optimized modulation, are reviewed and compared based on the VFD system models.

Some Approaches to Modeling Complex Information Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rao, V. Venkata; Zunde, Pranas

1982-01-01

Brief discussion of state-of-the-art of modeling complex information systems distinguishes between macrolevel and microlevel modeling of such systems. Network layout and hierarchical system models, simulation, information acquisition and dissemination, databases and information storage, and operating systems are described and assessed. Thirty-four…

Systems Operation Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : System Availability Model User's Manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The System Availability Model (SAM) is a system-level model which provides measures of vehicle and passenger availability. The SAM operates in conjunction with the AGT discrete Event Simulation Model (DESM). The DESM output is the normal source of th...

A Model-Based Expert System for Space Power Distribution Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinn, Todd M.; Schlegelmilch, Richard F.

1994-01-01

When engineers diagnose system failures, they often use models to confirm system operation. This concept has produced a class of advanced expert systems that perform model-based diagnosis. A model-based diagnostic expert system for the Space Station Freedom electrical power distribution test bed is currently being developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The objective of this expert system is to autonomously detect and isolate electrical fault conditions. Marple, a software package developed at TRW, provides a model-based environment utilizing constraint suspension. Originally, constraint suspension techniques were developed for digital systems. However, Marple provides the mechanisms for applying this approach to analog systems such as the test bed, as well. The expert system was developed using Marple and Lucid Common Lisp running on a Sun Sparc-2 workstation. The Marple modeling environment has proved to be a useful tool for investigating the various aspects of model-based diagnostics. This report describes work completed to date and lessons learned while employing model-based diagnostics using constraint suspension within an analog system.

Particle Tracking Model (PTM) with Coastal Modeling System (CMS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-04

Coastal Inlets Research Program Particle Tracking Model (PTM) with Coastal Modeling System ( CMS ) The Particle Tracking Model (PTM) is a Lagrangian...currents and waves. The Coastal Inlets Research Program (CIRP) supports the PTM with the Coastal Modeling System ( CMS ), which provides coupled wave...and current forcing for PTM simulations. CMS -PTM is implemented in the Surface-water Modeling System, a GUI environment for input development

Object-Oriented Modeling of an Energy Harvesting System Based on Thermoelectric Generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesarajah, Marco; Frey, Georg

This paper deals with the modeling of an energy harvesting system based on thermoelectric generators (TEG), and the validation of the model by means of a test bench. TEGs are capable to improve the overall energy efficiency of energy systems, e.g. combustion engines or heating systems, by using the remaining waste heat to generate electrical power. Previously, a component-oriented model of the TEG itself was developed in Modelica® language. With this model any TEG can be described and simulated given the material properties and the physical dimension. Now, this model was extended by the surrounding components to a complete model of a thermoelectric energy harvesting system. In addition to the TEG, the model contains the cooling system, the heat source, and the power electronics. To validate the simulation model, a test bench was built and installed on an oil-fired household heating system. The paper reports results of the measurements and discusses the validity of the developed simulation models. Furthermore, the efficiency of the proposed energy harvesting system is derived and possible improvements based on design variations tested in the simulation model are proposed.

An Integrated Modeling and Simulation Methodology for Intelligent Systems Design and Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-08-01

simulation and actual execution. KEYWORDS: Model Continuity, Modeling, Simulation, Experimental Frame, Real Time Systems , Intelligent Systems...the methodology for a stand-alone real time system. Then it will scale up to distributed real time systems . For both systems, step-wise simulation...MODEL CONTINUITY Intelligent real time systems monitor, respond to, or control, an external environment. This environment is connected to the digital

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: The Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jake Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and groundwater data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or groundwater modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: the Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jacob J. Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

Model tracking system for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities: License application interrogatories and responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benbennick, M.E.; Broton, M.S.; Fuoto, J.S.

This report describes a model tracking system for a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility license application. In particular, the model tracks interrogatories (questions, requests for information, comments) and responses. A set of requirements and desired features for the model tracking system was developed, including required structure and computer screens. Nine tracking systems were then reviewed against the model system requirements and only two were found to meet all requirements. Using Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis, a model tracking system was selected.

Model-based Systems Engineering: Creation and Implementation of Model Validation Rules for MOS 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Conrad K.

2013-01-01

Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging modeling application that is used to enhance the system development process. MBSE allows for the centralization of project and system information that would otherwise be stored in extraneous locations, yielding better communication, expedited document generation and increased knowledge capture. Based on MBSE concepts and the employment of the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), extremely large and complex systems can be modeled from conceptual design through all system lifecycles. The Operations Revitalization Initiative (OpsRev) seeks to leverage MBSE to modernize the aging Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) into the Mission Operations System 2.0 (MOS 2.0). The MOS 2.0 will be delivered in a series of conceptual and design models and documents built using the modeling tool MagicDraw. To ensure model completeness and cohesiveness, it is imperative that the MOS 2.0 models adhere to the specifications, patterns and profiles of the Mission Service Architecture Framework, thus leading to the use of validation rules. This paper outlines the process by which validation rules are identified, designed, implemented and tested. Ultimately, these rules provide the ability to maintain model correctness and synchronization in a simple, quick and effective manner, thus allowing the continuation of project and system progress.

System analysis through bond graph modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, Robert Thomas

2005-07-01

Modeling and simulation form an integral role in the engineering design process. An accurate mathematical description of a system provides the design engineer the flexibility to perform trade studies quickly and accurately to expedite the design process. Most often, the mathematical model of the system contains components of different engineering disciplines. A modeling methodology that can handle these types of systems might be used in an indirect fashion to extract added information from the model. This research examines the ability of a modeling methodology to provide added insight into system analysis and design. The modeling methodology used is bond graph modeling. An investigation into the creation of a bond graph model using the Lagrangian of the system is provided. Upon creation of the bond graph, system analysis is performed. To aid in the system analysis, an object-oriented approach to bond graph modeling is introduced. A framework is provided to simulate the bond graph directly. Through object-oriented simulation of a bond graph, the information contained within the bond graph can be exploited to create a measurement of system efficiency. A definition of system efficiency is given. This measurement of efficiency is used in the design of different controllers of varying architectures. Optimal control of a missile autopilot is discussed within the framework of the calculated system efficiency.

Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciortea, E. M.

2015-11-01

The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

SYSTEMS BIOLOGY MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

System biology models holistically describe, in a quantitative fashion, the relationships between different levels of a biologic system. Relationships between individual components of a system are delineated. System biology models describe how the components of the system inter...

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan

2016-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the lowboom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.

Electric Propulsion System Modeling for the Proposed Prometheus 1 Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiehler, Douglas; Dougherty, Ryan; Manzella, David

2005-01-01

The proposed Prometheus 1 spacecraft would utilize nuclear electric propulsion to propel the spacecraft to its ultimate destination where it would perform its primary mission. As part of the Prometheus 1 Phase A studies, system models were developed for each of the spacecraft subsystems that were integrated into one overarching system model. The Electric Propulsion System (EPS) model was developed using data from the Prometheus 1 electric propulsion technology development efforts. This EPS model was then used to provide both performance and mass information to the Prometheus 1 system model for total system trades. Development of the EPS model is described, detailing both the performance calculations as well as its evolution over the course of Phase A through three technical baselines. Model outputs are also presented, detailing the performance of the model and its direct relationship to the Prometheus 1 technology development efforts. These EP system model outputs are also analyzed chronologically showing the response of the model development to the four technical baselines during Prometheus 1 Phase A.

An Introduction to Markov Modeling: Concepts and Uses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Kharkov modeling is a modeling technique that is widely useful for dependability analysis of complex fault tolerant systems. It is very flexible in the type of systems and system behavior it can model. It is not, however, the most appropriate modeling technique for every modeling situation. The first task in obtaining a reliability or availability estimate for a system is selecting which modeling technique is most appropriate to the situation at hand. A person performing a dependability analysis must confront the question: is Kharkov modeling most appropriate to the system under consideration, or should another technique be used instead? The need to answer this gives rise to other more basic questions regarding Kharkov modeling: what are the capabilities and limitations of Kharkov modeling as a modeling technique? How does it relate to other modeling techniques? What kind of system behavior can it model? What kinds of software tools are available for performing dependability analyses with Kharkov modeling techniques? These questions and others will be addressed in this tutorial.

New model performance index for engineering design of control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1970-01-01

Performance index includes a model representing linear control-system design specifications. Based on a geometric criterion for approximation of the model by the actual system, the index can be interpreted directly in terms of the desired system response model without actually having the model's time response.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Justin Ray

2007-01-01

Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.

A model-based executive for commanding robot teams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Anthony

2005-01-01

The paper presents a way to robustly command a system of systems as a single entity. Instead of modeling each component system in isolation and then manually crafting interaction protocols, this approach starts with a model of the collective population as a single system. By compiling the model into separate elements for each component system and utilizing a teamwork model for coordination, it circumvents the complexities of manually crafting robust interaction protocols. The resulting systems are both globally responsive by virtue of a team oriented interaction model and locally responsive by virtue of a distributed approach to model-based fault detection, isolation, and recovery.

Fuzzy model-based servo and model following control for nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Ohtake, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kazuo; Wang, Hua O

2009-12-01

This correspondence presents servo and nonlinear model following controls for a class of nonlinear systems using the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model-based control approach. First, the construction method of the augmented fuzzy system for continuous-time nonlinear systems is proposed by differentiating the original nonlinear system. Second, the dynamic fuzzy servo controller and the dynamic fuzzy model following controller, which can make outputs of the nonlinear system converge to target points and to outputs of the reference system, respectively, are introduced. Finally, the servo and model following controller design conditions are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Design examples illustrate the utility of this approach.

Integrating the Advanced Human Eye Model (AHEM) and optical instrument models to model complete visual optical systems inclusive of the typical or atypical eye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, William J., III

2012-06-01

PURPOSE: To present a commercially available optical modeling software tool to assist the development of optical instrumentation and systems that utilize and/or integrate with the human eye. METHODS: A commercially available flexible eye modeling system is presented, the Advanced Human Eye Model (AHEM). AHEM is a module that the engineer can use to perform rapid development and test scenarios on systems that integrate with the eye. Methods include merging modeled systems initially developed outside of AHEM and performing a series of wizard-type operations that relieve the user from requiring an optometric or ophthalmic background to produce a complete eye inclusive system. Scenarios consist of retinal imaging of targets and sources through integrated systems. Uses include, but are not limited to, optimization, telescopes, microscopes, spectacles, contact and intraocular lenses, ocular aberrations, cataract simulation and scattering, and twin eye model (binocular) systems. RESULTS: Metrics, graphical data, and exportable CAD geometry are generated from the various modeling scenarios.

Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Li, Xin

2016-11-01

In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models.

PubMed

Shinde, Snehal B; Kurhekar, Manish P

2018-06-01

The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

Multiple system modelling of waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eriksson, Ola, E-mail: ola.eriksson@hig.se; Department of Building, Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Gaevle, SE 801 76 Gaevle; Bisaillon, Mattias, E-mail: mattias.bisaillon@profu.se

2011-12-15

Highlights: > Linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the systems. > The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. > The simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models. - Abstract: Due to increased environmental awareness, planning and performance of waste management has become more and more complex. Therefore waste management has early been subject to different types of modelling. Another field with long experience of modelling and systems perspective is energy systems. The two modelling traditions havemore » developed side by side, but so far there are very few attempts to combine them. Waste management systems can be linked together with energy systems through incineration plants. The models for waste management can be modelled on a quite detailed level whereas surrounding systems are modelled in a more simplistic way. This is a problem, as previous studies have shown that assumptions on the surrounding system often tend to be important for the conclusions. In this paper it is shown how two models, one for the district heating system (MARTES) and another one for the waste management system (ORWARE), can be linked together. The strengths and weaknesses with model linking are discussed when compared to simplistic assumptions on effects in the energy and waste management systems. It is concluded that the linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the consequences of different simultaneous changes in the systems. The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. However, the simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models.« less

Photovoltaic performance models - A report card

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.; Reiter, L. R.

1985-01-01

Models for the analysis of photovoltaic (PV) systems' designs, implementation policies, and economic performance, have proliferated while keeping pace with rapid changes in basic PV technology and extensive empirical data compiled for such systems' performance. Attention is presently given to the results of a comparative assessment of ten well documented and widely used models, which range in complexity from first-order approximations of PV system performance to in-depth, circuit-level characterizations. The comparisons were made on the basis of the performance of their subsystem, as well as system, elements. The models fall into three categories in light of their degree of aggregation into subsystems: (1) simplified models for first-order calculation of system performance, with easily met input requirements but limited capability to address more than a small variety of design considerations; (2) models simulating PV systems in greater detail, encompassing types primarily intended for either concentrator-incorporating or flat plate collector PV systems; and (3) models not specifically designed for PV system performance modeling, but applicable to aspects of electrical system design. Models ignoring subsystem failure or degradation are noted to exclude operating and maintenance characteristics as well.

A structural model decomposition framework for systems health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roychoudhury, I.; Daigle, M.; Bregon, A.; Pulido, B.

Systems health management (SHM) is an important set of technologies aimed at increasing system safety and reliability by detecting, isolating, and identifying faults; and predicting when the system reaches end of life (EOL), so that appropriate fault mitigation and recovery actions can be taken. Model-based SHM approaches typically make use of global, monolithic system models for online analysis, which results in a loss of scalability and efficiency for large-scale systems. Improvement in scalability and efficiency can be achieved by decomposing the system model into smaller local submodels and operating on these submodels instead. In this paper, the global system model is analyzed offline and structurally decomposed into local submodels. We define a common model decomposition framework for extracting submodels from the global model. This framework is then used to develop algorithms for solving model decomposition problems for the design of three separate SHM technologies, namely, estimation (which is useful for fault detection and identification), fault isolation, and EOL prediction. We solve these model decomposition problems using a three-tank system as a case study.

A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Systems Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil; Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Pulido, Belamino

2013-01-01

Systems health management (SHM) is an important set of technologies aimed at increasing system safety and reliability by detecting, isolating, and identifying faults; and predicting when the system reaches end of life (EOL), so that appropriate fault mitigation and recovery actions can be taken. Model-based SHM approaches typically make use of global, monolithic system models for online analysis, which results in a loss of scalability and efficiency for large-scale systems. Improvement in scalability and efficiency can be achieved by decomposing the system model into smaller local submodels and operating on these submodels instead. In this paper, the global system model is analyzed offline and structurally decomposed into local submodels. We define a common model decomposition framework for extracting submodels from the global model. This framework is then used to develop algorithms for solving model decomposition problems for the design of three separate SHM technologies, namely, estimation (which is useful for fault detection and identification), fault isolation, and EOL prediction. We solve these model decomposition problems using a three-tank system as a case study.

Application of field dependent polynomial model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janout, Petr; Páta, Petr; Skala, Petr; Fliegel, Karel; Vítek, Stanislav; Bednář, Jan

2016-09-01

Extremely wide-field imaging systems have many advantages regarding large display scenes whether for use in microscopy, all sky cameras, or in security technologies. The Large viewing angle is paid by the amount of aberrations, which are included with these imaging systems. Modeling wavefront aberrations using the Zernike polynomials is known a longer time and is widely used. Our method does not model system aberrations in a way of modeling wavefront, but directly modeling of aberration Point Spread Function of used imaging system. This is a very complicated task, and with conventional methods, it was difficult to achieve the desired accuracy. Our optimization techniques of searching coefficients space-variant Zernike polynomials can be described as a comprehensive model for ultra-wide-field imaging systems. The advantage of this model is that the model describes the whole space-variant system, unlike the majority models which are partly invariant systems. The issue that this model is the attempt to equalize the size of the modeled Point Spread Function, which is comparable to the pixel size. Issues associated with sampling, pixel size, pixel sensitivity profile must be taken into account in the design. The model was verified in a series of laboratory test patterns, test images of laboratory light sources and consequently on real images obtained by an extremely wide-field imaging system WILLIAM. Results of modeling of this system are listed in this article.

Evaluation of load flow and grid expansion in a unit-commitment and expansion optimization model SciGRID International Conference on Power Grid Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senkpiel, Charlotte; Biener, Wolfgang; Shammugam, Shivenes; Längle, Sven

2018-02-01

Energy system models serve as a basis for long term system planning. Joint optimization of electricity generating technologies, storage systems and the electricity grid leads to lower total system cost compared to an approach in which the grid expansion follows a given technology portfolio and their distribution. Modelers often face the problem of finding a good tradeoff between computational time and the level of detail that can be modeled. This paper analyses the differences between a transport model and a DC load flow model to evaluate the validity of using a simple but faster transport model within the system optimization model in terms of system reliability. The main findings in this paper are that a higher regional resolution of a system leads to better results compared to an approach in which regions are clustered as more overloads can be detected. An aggregation of lines between two model regions compared to a line sharp representation has little influence on grid expansion within a system optimizer. In a DC load flow model overloads can be detected in a line sharp case, which is therefore preferred. Overall the regions that need to reinforce the grid are identified within the system optimizer. Finally the paper recommends the usage of a load-flow model to test the validity of the model results.

A Novel Method to Verify Multilevel Computational Models of Biological Systems Using Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Meta Model Checking

PubMed Central

Gilbert, David

2016-01-01

Insights gained from multilevel computational models of biological systems can be translated into real-life applications only if the model correctness has been verified first. One of the most frequently employed in silico techniques for computational model verification is model checking. Traditional model checking approaches only consider the evolution of numeric values, such as concentrations, over time and are appropriate for computational models of small scale systems (e.g. intracellular networks). However for gaining a systems level understanding of how biological organisms function it is essential to consider more complex large scale biological systems (e.g. organs). Verifying computational models of such systems requires capturing both how numeric values and properties of (emergent) spatial structures (e.g. area of multicellular population) change over time and across multiple levels of organization, which are not considered by existing model checking approaches. To address this limitation we have developed a novel approximate probabilistic multiscale spatio-temporal meta model checking methodology for verifying multilevel computational models relative to specifications describing the desired/expected system behaviour. The methodology is generic and supports computational models encoded using various high-level modelling formalisms because it is defined relative to time series data and not the models used to generate it. In addition, the methodology can be automatically adapted to case study specific types of spatial structures and properties using the spatio-temporal meta model checking concept. To automate the computational model verification process we have implemented the model checking approach in the software tool Mule (http://mule.modelchecking.org). Its applicability is illustrated against four systems biology computational models previously published in the literature encoding the rat cardiovascular system dynamics, the uterine contractions of labour, the Xenopus laevis cell cycle and the acute inflammation of the gut and lung. Our methodology and software will enable computational biologists to efficiently develop reliable multilevel computational models of biological systems. PMID:27187178

A Novel Method to Verify Multilevel Computational Models of Biological Systems Using Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Meta Model Checking.

PubMed

Pârvu, Ovidiu; Gilbert, David

2016-01-01

Insights gained from multilevel computational models of biological systems can be translated into real-life applications only if the model correctness has been verified first. One of the most frequently employed in silico techniques for computational model verification is model checking. Traditional model checking approaches only consider the evolution of numeric values, such as concentrations, over time and are appropriate for computational models of small scale systems (e.g. intracellular networks). However for gaining a systems level understanding of how biological organisms function it is essential to consider more complex large scale biological systems (e.g. organs). Verifying computational models of such systems requires capturing both how numeric values and properties of (emergent) spatial structures (e.g. area of multicellular population) change over time and across multiple levels of organization, which are not considered by existing model checking approaches. To address this limitation we have developed a novel approximate probabilistic multiscale spatio-temporal meta model checking methodology for verifying multilevel computational models relative to specifications describing the desired/expected system behaviour. The methodology is generic and supports computational models encoded using various high-level modelling formalisms because it is defined relative to time series data and not the models used to generate it. In addition, the methodology can be automatically adapted to case study specific types of spatial structures and properties using the spatio-temporal meta model checking concept. To automate the computational model verification process we have implemented the model checking approach in the software tool Mule (http://mule.modelchecking.org). Its applicability is illustrated against four systems biology computational models previously published in the literature encoding the rat cardiovascular system dynamics, the uterine contractions of labour, the Xenopus laevis cell cycle and the acute inflammation of the gut and lung. Our methodology and software will enable computational biologists to efficiently develop reliable multilevel computational models of biological systems.

Coupled socioeconomic-crop modelling for the participatory local analysis of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Adamowski, J. F.; Wang, L. Y.; Rojas, M.; Carrera, J.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

The modelling of the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires the inclusion of socio-economic factors. However, while cropping models and economic models of agricultural systems are common, dynamically coupled socio-economic-biophysical models have not received as much success. A promising methodology for modelling the socioeconomic aspects of coupled natural-human systems is participatory system dynamics modelling, in which stakeholders develop mental maps of the socio-economic system that are then turned into quantified simulation models. This methodology has been successful in the water resources management field. However, while the stocks and flows of water resources have also been represented within the system dynamics modelling framework and thus coupled to the socioeconomic portion of the model, cropping models are ill-suited for such reformulation. In addition, most of these system dynamics models were developed without stakeholder input, limiting the scope for the adoption and implementation of their results. We therefore propose a new methodology for the analysis of climate change variability on agroecosystems which uses dynamically coupled system dynamics (socio-economic) and biophysical (cropping) models to represent both physical and socioeconomic aspects of the agricultural system, using two case studies (intensive market-based agricultural development versus subsistence crop-based development) from rural Guatemala. The system dynamics model component is developed with relevant governmental and NGO stakeholders from rural and agricultural development in the case study regions and includes such processes as education, poverty and food security. Common variables with the cropping models (yield and agricultural management choices) are then used to dynamically couple the two models together, allowing for the analysis of the agroeconomic system's response to and resilience against various climatic and socioeconomic shocks.

From Data-Sharing to Model-Sharing: SCEC and the Development of Earthquake System Science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake system science seeks to construct system-level models of earthquake phenomena and use them to predict emergent seismic behavior—an ambitious enterprise that requires high degree of interdisciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration. This presentation will explore model-sharing structures that have been successful in promoting earthquake system science within the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These include disciplinary working groups to aggregate data into community models; numerical-simulation working groups to investigate system-specific phenomena (process modeling) and further improve the data models (inverse modeling); and interdisciplinary working groups to synthesize predictive system-level models. SCEC has developed a cyberinfrastructure, called the Community Modeling Environment, that can distribute the community models; manage large suites of numerical simulations; vertically integrate the hardware, software, and wetware needed for system-level modeling; and promote the interactions among working groups needed for model validation and refinement. Various socio-scientific structures contribute to successful model-sharing. Two of the most important are “communities of trust” and collaborations between government and academic scientists on mission-oriented objectives. The latter include improvements of earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard models and the use of earthquake scenarios in promoting public awareness and disaster management.

Enhancement of the Acquisition Process for a Combat System-A Case Study to Model the Workflow Processes for an Air Defense System Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

Business Process Modeling BPMN Business Process Modeling Notation SoA Service-oriented Architecture UML Unified Modeling Language CSP...system developers. Supporting technologies include Business Process Modeling Notation ( BPMN ), Unified Modeling Language (UML), model-driven architecture

Integration of Earth System Models and Workflow Management under iRODS for the Northeast Regional Earth System Modeling Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lengyel, F.; Yang, P.; Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2012-12-01

The Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM, NSF Award #1049181) integrates weather research and forecasting models, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem models, a water balance/transport model, and mesoscale and energy systems input-out economic models developed by interdisciplinary research team from academia and government with expertise in physics, biogeochemistry, engineering, energy, economics, and policy. NE-RESM is intended to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. Integration of model components and the development of cyberinfrastructure for interacting with the system is facilitated with the integrated Rule Oriented Data System (iRODS), a distributed data grid that provides archival storage with metadata facilities and a rule-based workflow engine for automating and auditing scientific workflows.

CONFIG - Adapting qualitative modeling and discrete event simulation for design of fault management systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Basham, Bryan D.

1989-01-01

CONFIG is a modeling and simulation tool prototype for analyzing the normal and faulty qualitative behaviors of engineered systems. Qualitative modeling and discrete-event simulation have been adapted and integrated, to support early development, during system design, of software and procedures for management of failures, especially in diagnostic expert systems. Qualitative component models are defined in terms of normal and faulty modes and processes, which are defined by invocation statements and effect statements with time delays. System models are constructed graphically by using instances of components and relations from object-oriented hierarchical model libraries. Extension and reuse of CONFIG models and analysis capabilities in hybrid rule- and model-based expert fault-management support systems are discussed.

OOMM--Object-Oriented Matrix Modelling: an instrument for the integration of the Brasilia Regional Health Information System.

PubMed

Cammarota, M; Huppes, V; Gaia, S; Degoulet, P

1998-01-01

The development of Health Information Systems is widely determined by the establishment of the underlying information models. An Object-Oriented Matrix Model (OOMM) is described which target is to facilitate the integration of the overall health system. The model is based on information modules named micro-databases that are structured in a three-dimensional network: planning, health structures and information systems. The modelling tool has been developed as a layer on top of a relational database system. A visual browser facilitates the development and maintenance of the information model. The modelling approach has been applied to the Brasilia University Hospital since 1991. The extension of the modelling approach to the Brasilia regional health system is considered.

On domain modelling of the service system with its application to enterprise information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. W.; Wang, H. F.; Ding, J. L.; Furuta, K.; Kanno, T.; Ip, W. H.; Zhang, W. J.

2016-01-01

Information systems are a kind of service systems and they are throughout every element of a modern industrial and business system, much like blood in our body. Types of information systems are heterogeneous because of extreme uncertainty in changes in modern industrial and business systems. To effectively manage information systems, modelling of the work domain (or domain) of information systems is necessary. In this paper, a domain modelling framework for the service system is proposed and its application to the enterprise information system is outlined. The framework is defined based on application of a general domain modelling tool called function-context-behaviour-principle-state-structure (FCBPSS). The FCBPSS is based on a set of core concepts, namely: function, context, behaviour, principle, state and structure and system decomposition. Different from many other applications of FCBPSS in systems engineering, the FCBPSS is applied to both infrastructure and substance systems, which is novel and effective to modelling of service systems including enterprise information systems. It is to be noted that domain modelling of systems (e.g. enterprise information systems) is a key to integration of heterogeneous systems and to coping with unanticipated situations facing to systems.

A Model-Driven Development Method for Management Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, Tomoki; Matsumoto, Keinosuke; Mori, Naoki

Traditionally, a Management Information System (MIS) has been developed without using formal methods. By the informal methods, the MIS is developed on its lifecycle without having any models. It causes many problems such as lack of the reliability of system design specifications. In order to overcome these problems, a model theory approach was proposed. The approach is based on an idea that a system can be modeled by automata and set theory. However, it is very difficult to generate automata of the system to be developed right from the start. On the other hand, there is a model-driven development method that can flexibly correspond to changes of business logics or implementing technologies. In the model-driven development, a system is modeled using a modeling language such as UML. This paper proposes a new development method for management information systems applying the model-driven development method to a component of the model theory approach. The experiment has shown that a reduced amount of efforts is more than 30% of all the efforts.

Computer model of cardiovascular control system responses to exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Croston, R. C.; Rummel, J. A.; Kay, F. J.

1973-01-01

Approaches of systems analysis and mathematical modeling together with computer simulation techniques are applied to the cardiovascular system in order to simulate dynamic responses of the system to a range of exercise work loads. A block diagram of the circulatory model is presented, taking into account arterial segments, venous segments, arterio-venous circulation branches, and the heart. A cardiovascular control system model is also discussed together with model test results.

Implementation of a Sage-Based Stirling Model Into a System-Level Numerical Model of the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.

2011-01-01

The Fission Power System (FPS) project is developing a Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) to verify the performance and functionality of a subscale version of the FPS reference concept in a relevant environment, and to verify component and system models. As hardware is developed for the TDU, component and system models must be refined to include the details of specific component designs. This paper describes the development of a Sage-based pseudo-steady-state Stirling convertor model and its implementation into a system-level model of the TDU.

Model-Based Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Anjali; Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Miller, Steven P.; Whalen, Mike W.

2006-01-01

System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

Modeling of Spacecraft Advanced Chemical Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benfield, Michael P. J.; Belcher, Jeremy A.

2004-01-01

This paper outlines the development of the Advanced Chemical Propulsion System (ACPS) model for Earth and Space Storable propellants. This model was developed by the System Technology Operation of SAIC-Huntsville for the NASA MSFC In-Space Propulsion Project Office. Each subsystem of the model is described. Selected model results will also be shown to demonstrate the model's ability to evaluate technology changes in chemical propulsion systems.

The use of discrete-event simulation modeling to compare handwritten and electronic prescribing systems.

PubMed

Ghany, Ahmad; Vassanji, Karim; Kuziemsky, Craig; Keshavjee, Karim

2013-01-01

Electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) is expected to bring many benefits to Canadian healthcare, such as a reduction in errors and adverse drug reactions. As there currently is no functioning e-prescribing system in Canada that is completely electronic, we are unable to evaluate the performance of a live system. An alternative approach is to use simulation modeling for evaluation. We developed two discrete-event simulation models, one of the current handwritten prescribing system and one of a proposed e-prescribing system, to compare the performance of these two systems. We were able to compare the number of processes in each model, workflow efficiency, and the distribution of patients or prescriptions. Although we were able to compare these models to each other, using discrete-event simulation software was challenging. We were limited in the number of variables we could measure. We discovered non-linear processes and feedback loops in both models that could not be adequately represented using discrete-event simulation software. Finally, interactions between entities in both models could not be modeled using this type of software. We have come to the conclusion that a more appropriate approach to modeling both the handwritten and electronic prescribing systems would be to use a complex adaptive systems approach using agent-based modeling or systems-based modeling.

NASA Workshop on Distributed Parameter Modeling and Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marks, Virginia B. (Compiler); Keckler, Claude R. (Compiler)

1994-01-01

Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach.

Overview of the GRC Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Regan, Timothy F.

2004-01-01

A Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model has been developed at the Glenn Research Center for controls, dynamics, and systems development of free-piston convertor power systems. It models the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, gas, mechanical, and mounting dynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller. The model's scope extends from the thermal energy input to thermal, mechanical dynamics, and electrical energy out, allowing one to study complex system interactions among subsystems. The model is a non-linear time-domain model containing sub-cycle dynamics, allowing it to simulate transient and dynamic phenomena that other models cannot. The model details and capability are discussed.

System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph David

1997-01-01

The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal approach, a method using measured vibration amplitudes and measured or calculated modal characteristics of the model system is developed to correct for dynamic bias errors in the model attitude measurements. The correction method is verified through dynamic response tests on two model systems and actual wind tunnel test data.

Systems Operation Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : Availability Model Functional Specification

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-01-01

The System Availability Model (SAM) is a system-level model which provides measures of vehicle and passenger availability. The SAM will be used to evaluate the system-level influence of availability concepts employed in AGT systems. This functional s...

Practical limits for reverse engineering of dynamical systems: a statistical analysis of sensitivity and parameter inferability in systems biology models.

PubMed

Erguler, Kamil; Stumpf, Michael P H

2011-05-01

The size and complexity of cellular systems make building predictive models an extremely difficult task. In principle dynamical time-course data can be used to elucidate the structure of the underlying molecular mechanisms, but a central and recurring problem is that many and very different models can be fitted to experimental data, especially when the latter are limited and subject to noise. Even given a model, estimating its parameters remains challenging in real-world systems. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of 180 systems biology models, which allows us to classify the parameters with respect to their contribution to the overall dynamical behaviour of the different systems. Our results reveal candidate elements of control in biochemical pathways that differentially contribute to dynamics. We introduce sensitivity profiles that concisely characterize parameter sensitivity and demonstrate how this can be connected to variability in data. Systematically linking data and model sloppiness allows us to extract features of dynamical systems that determine how well parameters can be estimated from time-course measurements, and associates the extent of data required for parameter inference with the model structure, and also with the global dynamical state of the system. The comprehensive analysis of so many systems biology models reaffirms the inability to estimate precisely most model or kinetic parameters as a generic feature of dynamical systems, and provides safe guidelines for performing better inferences and model predictions in the context of reverse engineering of mathematical models for biological systems.

Model reduction by trimming for a class of semi-Markov reliability models and the corresponding error bound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Palumbo, Daniel L.

1991-01-01

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. A model reduction technique called trimming is presented that can be applied to a popular class of systems. Automatic model generation programs were written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. This method, trimming, is easy to implement and the error bound easy to compute. Hence, the method lends itself to inclusion in an automatic model generator.

Two degree of freedom internal model control-PID design for LFC of power systems via logarithmic approximations.

PubMed

Singh, Jay; Chattterjee, Kalyan; Vishwakarma, C B

2018-01-01

Load frequency controller has been designed for reduced order model of single area and two-area reheat hydro-thermal power system through internal model control - proportional integral derivative (IMC-PID) control techniques. The controller design method is based on two degree of freedom (2DOF) internal model control which combines with model order reduction technique. Here, in spite of taking full order system model a reduced order model has been considered for 2DOF-IMC-PID design and the designed controller is directly applied to full order system model. The Logarithmic based model order reduction technique is proposed to reduce the single and two-area high order power systems for the application of controller design.The proposed IMC-PID design of reduced order model achieves good dynamic response and robustness against load disturbance with the original high order system. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural system modeling and simulation using Hybrid Functional Petri Net.

PubMed

Tang, Yin; Wang, Fei

2012-02-01

The Petri net formalism has been proved to be powerful in biological modeling. It not only boasts of a most intuitive graphical presentation but also combines the methods of classical systems biology with the discrete modeling technique. Hybrid Functional Petri Net (HFPN) was proposed specially for biological system modeling. An array of well-constructed biological models using HFPN yielded very interesting results. In this paper, we propose a method to represent neural system behavior, where biochemistry and electrical chemistry are both included using the Petri net formalism. We built a model for the adrenergic system using HFPN and employed quantitative analysis. Our simulation results match the biological data well, showing that the model is very effective. Predictions made on our model further manifest the modeling power of HFPN and improve the understanding of the adrenergic system. The file of our model and more results with their analysis are available in our supplementary material.

An expert system for water quality modelling.

PubMed

Booty, W G; Lam, D C; Bobba, A G; Wong, I; Kay, D; Kerby, J P; Bowen, G S

1992-12-01

The RAISON-micro (Regional Analysis by Intelligent System ON a micro-computer) expert system is being used to predict the effects of mine effluents on receiving waters in Ontario. The potential of this system to assist regulatory agencies and mining industries to define more acceptable effluent limits was shown in an initial study. This system has been further developed so that the expert system helps the model user choose the most appropriate model for a particular application from a hierarchy of models. The system currently contains seven models which range from steady state to time dependent models, for both conservative and nonconservative substances in rivers and lakes. The menu driven expert system prompts the model user for information such as the nature of the receiving water system, the type of effluent being considered, and the range of background data available for use as input to the models. The system can also be used to determine the nature of the environmental conditions at the site which are not available in the textual information database, such as the components of river flow. Applications of the water quality expert system are presented for representative mine sites in the Timmins area of Ontario.

A logical model of cooperating rule-based systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailin, Sidney C.; Moore, John M.; Hilberg, Robert H.; Murphy, Elizabeth D.; Bahder, Shari A.

1989-01-01

A model is developed to assist in the planning, specification, development, and verification of space information systems involving distributed rule-based systems. The model is based on an analysis of possible uses of rule-based systems in control centers. This analysis is summarized as a data-flow model for a hypothetical intelligent control center. From this data-flow model, the logical model of cooperating rule-based systems is extracted. This model consists of four layers of increasing capability: (1) communicating agents, (2) belief-sharing knowledge sources, (3) goal-sharing interest areas, and (4) task-sharing job roles.

Reliability model generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Gerald C. (Inventor); McMann, Catherine M. (Inventor)

1991-01-01

An improved method and system for automatically generating reliability models for use with a reliability evaluation tool is described. The reliability model generator of the present invention includes means for storing a plurality of low level reliability models which represent the reliability characteristics for low level system components. In addition, the present invention includes means for defining the interconnection of the low level reliability models via a system architecture description. In accordance with the principles of the present invention, a reliability model for the entire system is automatically generated by aggregating the low level reliability models based on the system architecture description.

A hierarchy for modeling high speed propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T.; Deabreu, Alex

1991-01-01

General research efforts on reduced order propulsion models for control systems design are overviewed. Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems are discussed including internal flow propulsion systems that do not contain rotating machinery such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. The discussion is separated into four sections: (1) computational fluid dynamics model for the entire nonlinear system or high order nonlinear models; (2) high order linearized model derived from fundamental physics; (3) low order linear models obtained from other high order models; and (4) low order nonlinear models. Included are special considerations on any relevant control system designs. The methods discussed are for the quasi-one dimensional Euler equations of gasdynamic flow. The essential nonlinear features represented are large amplitude nonlinear waves, moving normal shocks, hammershocks, subsonic combustion via heat addition, temperature dependent gases, detonation, and thermal choking.

Top-level modeling of an als system utilizing object-oriented techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, L. F.; Kang, S.; Ting, K. C.

The possible configuration of an Advanced Life Support (ALS) System capable of supporting human life for long-term space missions continues to evolve as researchers investigate potential technologies and configurations. To facilitate the decision process the development of acceptable, flexible, and dynamic mathematical computer modeling tools capable of system level analysis is desirable. Object-oriented techniques have been adopted to develop a dynamic top-level model of an ALS system.This approach has several advantages; among these, object-oriented abstractions of systems are inherently modular in architecture. Thus, models can initially be somewhat simplistic, while allowing for adjustments and improvements. In addition, by coding the model in Java, the model can be implemented via the World Wide Web, greatly encouraging the utilization of the model. Systems analysis is further enabled with the utilization of a readily available backend database containing information supporting the model. The subsystem models of the ALS system model include Crew, Biomass Production, Waste Processing and Resource Recovery, Food Processing and Nutrition, and the Interconnecting Space. Each subsystem model and an overall model have been developed. Presented here is the procedure utilized to develop the modeling tool, the vision of the modeling tool, and the current focus for each of the subsystem models.

Using object-oriented analysis techniques to support system testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zucconi, Lin

1990-03-01

Testing of real-time control systems can be greatly facilitated by use of object-oriented and structured analysis modeling techniques. This report describes a project where behavior, process and information models built for a real-time control system were used to augment and aid traditional system testing. The modeling techniques used were an adaptation of the Ward/Mellor method for real-time systems analysis and design (Ward85) for object-oriented development. The models were used to simulate system behavior by means of hand execution of the behavior or state model and the associated process (data and control flow) and information (data) models. The information model, which uses an extended entity-relationship modeling technique, is used to identify application domain objects and their attributes (instance variables). The behavioral model uses state-transition diagrams to describe the state-dependent behavior of the object. The process model uses a transformation schema to describe the operations performed on or by the object. Together, these models provide a means of analyzing and specifying a system in terms of the static and dynamic properties of the objects which it manipulates. The various models were used to simultaneously capture knowledge about both the objects in the application domain and the system implementation. Models were constructed, verified against the software as-built and validated through informal reviews with the developer. These models were then hand-executed.

Human systems dynamics: Toward a computational model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eoyang, Glenda H.

2012-09-01

A robust and reliable computational model of complex human systems dynamics could support advancements in theory and practice for social systems at all levels, from intrapersonal experience to global politics and economics. Models of human interactions have evolved from traditional, Newtonian systems assumptions, which served a variety of practical and theoretical needs of the past. Another class of models has been inspired and informed by models and methods from nonlinear dynamics, chaos, and complexity science. None of the existing models, however, is able to represent the open, high dimension, and nonlinear self-organizing dynamics of social systems. An effective model will represent interactions at multiple levels to generate emergent patterns of social and political life of individuals and groups. Existing models and modeling methods are considered and assessed against characteristic pattern-forming processes in observed and experienced phenomena of human systems. A conceptual model, CDE Model, based on the conditions for self-organizing in human systems, is explored as an alternative to existing models and methods. While the new model overcomes the limitations of previous models, it also provides an explanatory base and foundation for prospective analysis to inform real-time meaning making and action taking in response to complex conditions in the real world. An invitation is extended to readers to engage in developing a computational model that incorporates the assumptions, meta-variables, and relationships of this open, high dimension, and nonlinear conceptual model of the complex dynamics of human systems.

System Simulation Modeling: A Case Study Illustration of the Model Development Life Cycle

Treesearch

Janice K. Wiedenbeck; D. Earl Kline

1994-01-01

Systems simulation modeling techniques offer a method of representing the individual elements of a manufacturing system and their interactions. By developing and experimenting with simulation models, one can obtain a better understanding of the overall physical system. Forest products industries are beginning to understand the importance of simulation modeling to help...

The (Mathematical) Modeling Process in Biosciences.

PubMed

Torres, Nestor V; Santos, Guido

2015-01-01

In this communication, we introduce a general framework and discussion on the role of models and the modeling process in the field of biosciences. The objective is to sum up the common procedures during the formalization and analysis of a biological problem from the perspective of Systems Biology, which approaches the study of biological systems as a whole. We begin by presenting the definitions of (biological) system and model. Particular attention is given to the meaning of mathematical model within the context of biology. Then, we present the process of modeling and analysis of biological systems. Three stages are described in detail: conceptualization of the biological system into a model, mathematical formalization of the previous conceptual model and optimization and system management derived from the analysis of the mathematical model. All along this work the main features and shortcomings of the process are analyzed and a set of rules that could help in the task of modeling any biological system are presented. Special regard is given to the formative requirements and the interdisciplinary nature of this approach. We conclude with some general considerations on the challenges that modeling is posing to current biology.

An online model composition tool for system biology models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There are multiple representation formats for Systems Biology computational models, and the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) is one of the most widely used. SBML is used to capture, store, and distribute computational models by Systems Biology data sources (e.g., the BioModels Database) and researchers. Therefore, there is a need for all-in-one web-based solutions that support advance SBML functionalities such as uploading, editing, composing, visualizing, simulating, querying, and browsing computational models. Results We present the design and implementation of the Model Composition Tool (Interface) within the PathCase-SB (PathCase Systems Biology) web portal. The tool helps users compose systems biology models to facilitate the complex process of merging systems biology models. We also present three tools that support the model composition tool, namely, (1) Model Simulation Interface that generates a visual plot of the simulation according to user’s input, (2) iModel Tool as a platform for users to upload their own models to compose, and (3) SimCom Tool that provides a side by side comparison of models being composed in the same pathway. Finally, we provide a web site that hosts BioModels Database models and a separate web site that hosts SBML Test Suite models. Conclusions Model composition tool (and the other three tools) can be used with little or no knowledge of the SBML document structure. For this reason, students or anyone who wants to learn about systems biology will benefit from the described functionalities. SBML Test Suite models will be a nice starting point for beginners. And, for more advanced purposes, users will able to access and employ models of the BioModels Database as well. PMID:24006914

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Systems and context modeling approach to requirements analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahuja, Amrit; Muralikrishna, G.; Patwari, Puneet; Subhrojyoti, C.; Swaminathan, N.; Vin, Harrick

2014-08-01

Ensuring completeness and correctness of the requirements for a complex system such as the SKA is challenging. Current system engineering practice includes developing a stakeholder needs definition, a concept of operations, and defining system requirements in terms of use cases and requirements statements. We present a method that enhances this current practice into a collection of system models with mutual consistency relationships. These include stakeholder goals, needs definition and system-of-interest models, together with a context model that participates in the consistency relationships among these models. We illustrate this approach by using it to analyze the SKA system requirements.

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Quantitative computational models of molecular self-assembly in systems biology

PubMed Central

Thomas, Marcus; Schwartz, Russell

2017-01-01

Molecular self-assembly is the dominant form of chemical reaction in living systems, yet efforts at systems biology modeling are only beginning to appreciate the need for and challenges to accurate quantitative modeling of self-assembly. Self-assembly reactions are essential to nearly every important process in cell and molecular biology and handling them is thus a necessary step in building comprehensive models of complex cellular systems. They present exceptional challenges, however, to standard methods for simulating complex systems. While the general systems biology world is just beginning to deal with these challenges, there is an extensive literature dealing with them for more specialized self-assembly modeling. This review will examine the challenges of self-assembly modeling, nascent efforts to deal with these challenges in the systems modeling community, and some of the solutions offered in prior work on self-assembly specifically. The review concludes with some consideration of the likely role of self-assembly in the future of complex biological system models more generally. PMID:28535149

Quantitative computational models of molecular self-assembly in systems biology.

PubMed

Thomas, Marcus; Schwartz, Russell

2017-05-23

Molecular self-assembly is the dominant form of chemical reaction in living systems, yet efforts at systems biology modeling are only beginning to appreciate the need for and challenges to accurate quantitative modeling of self-assembly. Self-assembly reactions are essential to nearly every important process in cell and molecular biology and handling them is thus a necessary step in building comprehensive models of complex cellular systems. They present exceptional challenges, however, to standard methods for simulating complex systems. While the general systems biology world is just beginning to deal with these challenges, there is an extensive literature dealing with them for more specialized self-assembly modeling. This review will examine the challenges of self-assembly modeling, nascent efforts to deal with these challenges in the systems modeling community, and some of the solutions offered in prior work on self-assembly specifically. The review concludes with some consideration of the likely role of self-assembly in the future of complex biological system models more generally.

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator tqimproy precipitation processes will be discussed.

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

1992-01-01

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.;

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Humanmore » System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE PAGES

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; ...

2016-12-11

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Integrated Workforce Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moynihan, Gary P.

2000-01-01

There are several computer-based systems, currently in various phases of development at KSC, which encompass some component, aspect, or function of workforce modeling. These systems may offer redundant capabilities and/or incompatible interfaces. A systems approach to workforce modeling is necessary in order to identify and better address user requirements. This research has consisted of two primary tasks. Task 1 provided an assessment of existing and proposed KSC workforce modeling systems for their functionality and applicability to the workforce planning function. Task 2 resulted in the development of a proof-of-concept design for a systems approach to workforce modeling. The model incorporates critical aspects of workforce planning, including hires, attrition, and employee development.

Lessons Learned from using a Livingstone Model to Diagnose a Main Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, Adam; Bajwa, Anupa

2003-01-01

NASA researchers have demonstrated that qualitative, model-based reasoning can be used for fault detection in a Main Propulsion System (MPS), a complex, continuous system. At the heart of this diagnostic system is Livingstone, a discrete, propositional logic-based inference engine. Livingstone comprises a language for specifying a discrete model of the system and a set of algorithms that use the model to track the system's state. Livingstone uses the model to test assumptions about the state of a component - observations from the system are compared with values predicted by the model. The intent of this paper is to summarize some advantages of Livingstone seen through our modeling experience: for instance, flexibility in modeling, speed and maturity. We also describe some shortcomings we perceived in the implementation of Livingstone, such as modeling continuous dynamics and handling of transients. We list some upcoming enhancements to the next version of Livingstone that may resolve some of the current limitations.

The Earth System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

2003-01-01

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

On Using SysML, DoDAF 2.0 and UPDM to Model the Architecture for the NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Ground System (GS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayden, Jeffrey L.; Jeffries, Alan

2012-01-01

The JPSS Ground System is a lIexible system of systems responsible for telemetry, tracking & command (TT &C), data acquisition, routing and data processing services for a varied lIeet of satellites to support weather prediction, modeling and climate modeling. To assist in this engineering effort, architecture modeling tools are being employed to translate the former NPOESS baseline to the new JPSS baseline, The paper will focus on the methodology for the system engineering process and the use of these architecture modeling tools within that process, The Department of Defense Architecture Framework version 2,0 (DoDAF 2.0) viewpoints and views that are being used to describe the JPSS GS architecture are discussed. The Unified Profile for DoOAF and MODAF (UPDM) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), as ' provided by extensions to the MagicDraw UML modeling tool, are used to develop the diagrams and tables that make up the architecture model. The model development process and structure are discussed, examples are shown, and details of handling the complexities of a large System of Systems (SoS), such as the JPSS GS, with an equally complex modeling tool, are described

Mathematical circulatory system model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakin, William D. (Inventor); Stevens, Scott A. (Inventor)

2010-01-01

A system and method of modeling a circulatory system including a regulatory mechanism parameter. In one embodiment, a regulatory mechanism parameter in a lumped parameter model is represented as a logistic function. In another embodiment, the circulatory system model includes a compliant vessel, the model having a parameter representing a change in pressure due to contraction of smooth muscles of a wall of the vessel.

Context in Models of Human-Machine Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callantine, Todd J.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

All human-machine systems models represent context. This paper proposes a theory of context through which models may be usefully related and integrated for design. The paper presents examples of context representation in various models, describes an application to developing models for the Crew Activity Tracking System (CATS), and advances context as a foundation for integrated design of complex dynamic systems.

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-01-01

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated “reverse engineering” approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future. PMID:17553966

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems.

PubMed

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-06-12

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated "reverse engineering" approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future.

Dynamic characteristics of motor-gear system under load saltations and voltage transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Wenyu; Qin, Datong; Wang, Yawen; Lim, Teik C.

2018-02-01

In this paper, a dynamic model of a motor-gear system is proposed. The model combines a nonlinear permeance network model (PNM) of a squirrel-cage induction motor and a coupled lateral-torsional dynamic model of a planetary geared rotor system. The external excitations including voltage transients and load saltations, as well as the internal excitations such as spatial effects, magnetic circuits topology and material nonlinearity in the motor, and time-varying mesh stiffness and damping in the planetary gear system are considered in the proposed model. Then, the simulation results are compared with those predicted by the electromechanical model containing a dynamic motor model with constant inductances. The comparison showed that the electromechanical system model with the PNM motor model yields more reasonable results than the electromechanical system model with the lumped-parameter electric machine. It is observed that electromechanical coupling effect can induce additional and severe gear vibrations. In addition, the external conditions, especially the voltage transients, will dramatically affect the dynamic characteristics of the electromechanical system. Finally, some suggestions are offered based on this analysis for improving the performance and reliability of the electromechanical system.

Model-Based Systems Engineering With the Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) Applied to NASA Mission Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munoz Fernandez, Michela Miche

2014-01-01

The potential of Model Model Systems Engineering (MBSE) using the Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) applied to space systems will be described. AADL modeling is applicable to real-time embedded systems- the types of systems NASA builds. A case study with the Juno mission to Jupiter showcases how this work would enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout their life cycle from design to flight operations.

Protocol for Reliability Assessment of Structural Health Monitoring Systems Incorporating Model-assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD) Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

a quality evaluation with limited data, a model -based assessment must be...that affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a ...affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a wide range

Control by model error estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Likins, P. W.; Skelton, R. E.

1976-01-01

Modern control theory relies upon the fidelity of the mathematical model of the system. Truncated modes, external disturbances, and parameter errors in linear system models are corrected by augmenting to the original system of equations an 'error system' which is designed to approximate the effects of such model errors. A Chebyshev error system is developed for application to the Large Space Telescope (LST).

The Design and Development of the Dragoon Intelligent Tutoring System for Model Construction: Lessons Learned

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wetzel, Jon; VanLehn, Kurt; Butler, Dillan; Chaudhari, Pradeep; Desai, Avaneesh; Feng, Jingxian; Grover, Sachin; Joiner, Reid; Kong-Sivert, Mackenzie; Patade, Vallabh; Samala, Ritesh; Tiwari, Megha; van de Sande, Brett

2017-01-01

This paper describes Dragoon, a simple intelligent tutoring system which teaches the construction of models of dynamic systems. Modelling is one of seven practices dictated in two new sets of educational standards in the U.S.A., and Dragoon is one of the first systems for teaching model construction for dynamic systems. Dragoon can be classified…

Ontology for Life-Cycle Modeling of Water Distribution Systems: Application of Model View Definition Attributes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

ER D C/ CE RL C R- 13 -5 Ontology for Life-Cycle Modeling of Water Distribution Systems : Application of Model View Definition...2013 Ontology for Life-Cycle Modeling of Water Distribution Systems : Application of Model View Definition Attributes Kristine K. Fallon, Robert A...interior plumbing systems and the information exchange requirements for every participant in the design. The findings were used to develop an

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

DOEpatents

Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

2017-03-07

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

GEM System: automatic prototyping of cell-wide metabolic pathway models from genomes.

PubMed

Arakawa, Kazuharu; Yamada, Yohei; Shinoda, Kosaku; Nakayama, Yoichi; Tomita, Masaru

2006-03-23

Successful realization of a "systems biology" approach to analyzing cells is a grand challenge for our understanding of life. However, current modeling approaches to cell simulation are labor-intensive, manual affairs, and therefore constitute a major bottleneck in the evolution of computational cell biology. We developed the Genome-based Modeling (GEM) System for the purpose of automatically prototyping simulation models of cell-wide metabolic pathways from genome sequences and other public biological information. Models generated by the GEM System include an entire Escherichia coli metabolism model comprising 968 reactions of 1195 metabolites, achieving 100% coverage when compared with the KEGG database, 92.38% with the EcoCyc database, and 95.06% with iJR904 genome-scale model. The GEM System prototypes qualitative models to reduce the labor-intensive tasks required for systems biology research. Models of over 90 bacterial genomes are available at our web site.

A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

PubMed

Sharit, J

2000-08-01

This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

Two models for identification and predicting behaviour of an induction motor system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Chien-Hsun

2018-01-01

System identification or modelling is the process of building mathematical models of dynamical systems based on the available input and output data from the systems. This paper introduces system identification by using ARX (Auto Regressive with eXogeneous input) and ARMAX (Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogeneous input) models. Through the identified system model, the predicted output could be compared with the measured one to help prevent the motor faults from developing into a catastrophic machine failure and avoid unnecessary costs and delays caused by the need to carry out unscheduled repairs. The induction motor system is illustrated as an example. Numerical and experimental results are shown for the identified induction motor system.

Model calibration and issues related to validation, sensitivity analysis, post-audit, uncertainty evaluation and assessment of prediction data needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2007-01-01

When simulating natural and engineered groundwater flow and transport systems, one objective is to produce a model that accurately represents important aspects of the true system. However, using direct measurements of system characteristics, such as hydraulic conductivity, to construct a model often produces simulated values that poorly match observations of the system state, such as hydraulic heads, flows and concentrations (for example, Barth et al., 2001). This occurs because of inaccuracies in the direct measurements and because the measurements commonly characterize system properties at different scales from that of the model aspect to which they are applied. In these circumstances, the conservation of mass equations represented by flow and transport models can be used to test the applicability of the direct measurements, such as by comparing model simulated values to the system state observations. This comparison leads to calibrating the model, by adjusting the model construction and the system properties as represented by model parameter values, so that the model produces simulated values that reasonably match the observations.

Verification of an analytic modeler for capillary pump loop thermal control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweickart, R. B.; Neiswanger, L.; Ku, J.

1987-01-01

A number of computer programs have been written to model two-phase heat transfer systems for space use. These programs support the design of thermal control systems and provide a method of predicting their performance in the wide range of thermal environments of space. Predicting the performance of one such system known as the capillary pump loop (CPL) is the intent of the CPL Modeler. By modeling two developed CPL systems and comparing the results with actual test data, the CPL Modeler has proven useful in simulating CPL operation. Results of the modeling effort are discussed, together with plans for refinements to the modeler.

Overcoming limitations of model-based diagnostic reasoning systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holtzblatt, Lester J.; Marcotte, Richard A.; Piazza, Richard L.

1989-01-01

The development of a model-based diagnostic system to overcome the limitations of model-based reasoning systems is discussed. It is noted that model-based reasoning techniques can be used to analyze the failure behavior and diagnosability of system and circuit designs as part of the system process itself. One goal of current research is the development of a diagnostic algorithm which can reason efficiently about large numbers of diagnostic suspects and can handle both combinational and sequential circuits. A second goal is to address the model-creation problem by developing an approach for using design models to construct the GMODS model in an automated fashion.

Retrospective revaluation in sequential decision making: a tale of two systems.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Markman, Arthur B; Otto, A Ross

2014-02-01

Recent computational theories of decision making in humans and animals have portrayed 2 systems locked in a battle for control of behavior. One system--variously termed model-free or habitual--favors actions that have previously led to reward, whereas a second--called the model-based or goal-directed system--favors actions that causally lead to reward according to the agent's internal model of the environment. Some evidence suggests that control can be shifted between these systems using neural or behavioral manipulations, but other evidence suggests that the systems are more intertwined than a competitive account would imply. In 4 behavioral experiments, using a retrospective revaluation design and a cognitive load manipulation, we show that human decisions are more consistent with a cooperative architecture in which the model-free system controls behavior, whereas the model-based system trains the model-free system by replaying and simulating experience.

Understanding earth system models: how Global Sensitivity Analysis can help

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Computer models are an essential element of earth system sciences, underpinning our understanding of systems functioning and influencing the planning and management of socio-economic-environmental systems. Even when these models represent a relatively low number of physical processes and variables, earth system models can exhibit a complicated behaviour because of the high level of interactions between their simulated variables. As the level of these interactions increases, we quickly lose the ability to anticipate and interpret the model's behaviour and hence the opportunity to check whether the model gives the right response for the right reasons. Moreover, even if internally consistent, an earth system model will always produce uncertain predictions because it is often forced by uncertain inputs (due to measurement errors, pre-processing uncertainties, scarcity of measurements, etc.). Lack of transparency about the scope of validity, limitations and the main sources of uncertainty of earth system models can be a strong limitation to their effective use for both scientific and decision-making purposes. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical analysis techniques to investigate the complex behaviour of earth system models in a structured, transparent and comprehensive way. In this presentation, we will use a range of examples across earth system sciences (with a focus on hydrology) to demonstrate how GSA is a fundamental element in advancing the construction and use of earth system models, including: verifying the consistency of the model's behaviour with our conceptual understanding of the system functioning; identifying the main sources of output uncertainty so to focus efforts for uncertainty reduction; finding tipping points in forcing inputs that, if crossed, would bring the system to specific conditions we want to avoid.

Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herbst, Florian-Alexander; Lünsmann, Vanessa; Kjeldal, Henrik

2016-01-21

Metaproteomics - the large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in time - added unique features and possibilities to study environmental microbial communities and to unravel these “black boxes”. New technical challenges arose which were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before and choosing the appropriate model system applicable to the research question can be difficult. Here, we reviewed different model systems for metaproteome analysis. Following a short introduction to microbial communities and systems, we discussed the most used systems ranging from technical systems over rhizospheric models to systems for the medicalmore » field. This includes acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, activated sludge, planted fixed bed reactors, gastrointestinal simulators and in vivo models. Model systems are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability or reliable protein extraction. The implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial responses and ecological distribution of member organisms. In the future, novel improvements are necessary to fully engage complex environmental systems.« less

Toward a new generation of agricultural system data, models, and knowledge products: State of agricultural systems science.

PubMed

Jones, James W; Antle, John M; Basso, Bruno; Boote, Kenneth J; Conant, Richard T; Foster, Ian; Godfray, H Charles J; Herrero, Mario; Howitt, Richard E; Janssen, Sander; Keating, Brian A; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael; Porter, Cheryl H; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Wheeler, Tim R

2017-07-01

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, James W.; Antle, John M.; Basso, Bruno; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conant, Richard T.; Foster, Ian; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Herrero, Mario; Howitt, Richard E.; Janssen, Sander;

Toward a new generation of agricultural system data, models, and knowledge products: State of agricultural systems science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, James W.; Antle, John M.; Basso, Bruno

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and needmore » to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.« less

Modeling Complex Cross-Systems Software Interfaces Using SysML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandutianu, Sanda; Morillo, Ron; Simpson, Kim; Liepack, Otfrid; Bonanne, Kevin

2013-01-01

The complex flight and ground systems for NASA human space exploration are designed, built, operated and managed as separate programs and projects. However, each system relies on one or more of the other systems in order to accomplish specific mission objectives, creating a complex, tightly coupled architecture. Thus, there is a fundamental need to understand how each system interacts with the other. To determine if a model-based system engineering approach could be utilized to assist with understanding the complex system interactions, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) sponsored a task to develop an approach for performing cross-system behavior modeling. This paper presents the results of applying Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) principles using the System Modeling Language (SysML) to define cross-system behaviors and how they map to crosssystem software interfaces documented in system-level Interface Control Documents (ICDs).

Control Activity in Support of NASA Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stueber, Thomas J.; Vrnak, Daniel R.; Le, Dzu K.; Ouzts, Peter J.

2010-01-01

Control research for a Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) propulsion system is the current focus of the Hypersonic Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) discipline team. The ongoing work at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) supports the Hypersonic GN&C effort in developing tools to aid the design of control algorithms to manage a TBCC airbreathing propulsion system during a critical operating period. The critical operating period being addressed in this paper is the span when the propulsion system transitions from one cycle to another, referred to as mode transition. One such tool, that is a basic need for control system design activities, is computational models (hereto forth referred to as models) of the propulsion system. The models of interest for designing and testing controllers are Control Development Models (CDMs) and Control Validation Models (CVMs). CDMs and CVMs are needed for each of the following propulsion system elements: inlet, turbine engine, ram/scram dual-mode combustor, and nozzle. This paper presents an overall architecture for a TBCC propulsion system model that includes all of the propulsion system elements. Efforts are under way, focusing on one of the propulsion system elements, to develop CDMs and CVMs for a TBCC propulsion system inlet. The TBCC inlet aerodynamic design being modeled is that of the Combined-Cycle Engine (CCE) Testbed. The CCE Testbed is a large-scale model of an aerodynamic design that was verified in a small-scale screening experiment. The modeling approach includes employing existing state-of-the-art simulation codes, developing new dynamic simulations, and performing system identification experiments on the hardware in the NASA GRC 10 by10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The developed CDMs and CVMs will be available for control studies prior to hardware buildup. The system identification experiments on the CCE Testbed will characterize the necessary dynamics to be represented in CDMs for control design. These system identification models will also be the reference models to validate the CDM and CVM models. Validated models will give value to the tools used to develop the models.

Mechanical model development of rolling bearing-rotor systems: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hongrui; Niu, Linkai; Xi, Songtao; Chen, Xuefeng

2018-03-01

The rolling bearing rotor (RBR) system is the kernel of many rotating machines, which affects the performance of the whole machine. Over the past decades, extensive research work has been carried out to investigate the dynamic behavior of RBR systems. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, no comprehensive review on RBR modelling has been reported yet. To address this gap in the literature, this paper reviews and critically discusses the current progress of mechanical model development of RBR systems, and identifies future trends for research. Firstly, five kinds of rolling bearing models, i.e., the lumped-parameter model, the quasi-static model, the quasi-dynamic model, the dynamic model, and the finite element (FE) model are summarized. Then, the coupled modelling between bearing models and various rotor models including De Laval/Jeffcott rotor, rigid rotor, transfer matrix method (TMM) models and FE models are presented. Finally, the paper discusses the key challenges of previous works and provides new insights into understanding of RBR systems for their advanced future engineering applications.

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

[Modeling and implementation method for the automatic biochemistry analyzer control system].

PubMed

Wang, Dong; Ge, Wan-cheng; Song, Chun-lin; Wang, Yun-guang

2009-03-01

In this paper the system structure The automatic biochemistry analyzer is a necessary instrument for clinical diagnostics. First of is analyzed. The system problems description and the fundamental principles for dispatch are brought forward. Then this text puts emphasis on the modeling for the automatic biochemistry analyzer control system. The objects model and the communications model are put forward. Finally, the implementation method is designed. It indicates that the system based on the model has good performance.

The (Mathematical) Modeling Process in Biosciences

PubMed Central

Torres, Nestor V.; Santos, Guido

2015-01-01

In this communication, we introduce a general framework and discussion on the role of models and the modeling process in the field of biosciences. The objective is to sum up the common procedures during the formalization and analysis of a biological problem from the perspective of Systems Biology, which approaches the study of biological systems as a whole. We begin by presenting the definitions of (biological) system and model. Particular attention is given to the meaning of mathematical model within the context of biology. Then, we present the process of modeling and analysis of biological systems. Three stages are described in detail: conceptualization of the biological system into a model, mathematical formalization of the previous conceptual model and optimization and system management derived from the analysis of the mathematical model. All along this work the main features and shortcomings of the process are analyzed and a set of rules that could help in the task of modeling any biological system are presented. Special regard is given to the formative requirements and the interdisciplinary nature of this approach. We conclude with some general considerations on the challenges that modeling is posing to current biology. PMID:26734063

An Integrated Qualitative and Quantitative Biochemical Model Learning Framework Using Evolutionary Strategy and Simulated Annealing.

PubMed

Wu, Zujian; Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M

2015-01-01

Both qualitative and quantitative model learning frameworks for biochemical systems have been studied in computational systems biology. In this research, after introducing two forms of pre-defined component patterns to represent biochemical models, we propose an integrative qualitative and quantitative modelling framework for inferring biochemical systems. In the proposed framework, interactions between reactants in the candidate models for a target biochemical system are evolved and eventually identified by the application of a qualitative model learning approach with an evolution strategy. Kinetic rates of the models generated from qualitative model learning are then further optimised by employing a quantitative approach with simulated annealing. Experimental results indicate that our proposed integrative framework is feasible to learn the relationships between biochemical reactants qualitatively and to make the model replicate the behaviours of the target system by optimising the kinetic rates quantitatively. Moreover, potential reactants of a target biochemical system can be discovered by hypothesising complex reactants in the synthetic models. Based on the biochemical models learned from the proposed framework, biologists can further perform experimental study in wet laboratory. In this way, natural biochemical systems can be better understood.

Stirling System Modeling for Space Nuclear Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Johnson, Paul K.

2008-01-01

A dynamic model of a high-power Stirling convertor has been developed for space nuclear power systems modeling. The model is based on the Component Test Power Convertor (CTPC), a 12.5-kWe free-piston Stirling convertor. The model includes the fluid heat source, the Stirling convertor, output power, and heat rejection. The Stirling convertor model includes the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass-spring damper systems, and the linear alternator. The model was validated against test data. Both nonlinear and linear versions of the model were developed. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models; one model of the Stirling cycle and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. Future possible uses of the Stirling system dynamic model are discussed. A pair of commercially available 1-kWe Stirling convertors is being purchased by NASA Glenn Research Center. The specifications of those convertors may eventually be incorporated into the dynamic model and analysis compared to the convertor test data. Subsequent potential testing could include integrating the convertors into a pumped liquid metal hot-end interface. This test would provide more data for comparison to the dynamic model analysis.

Modelling Root Systems Using Oriented Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupuy, Lionel X.

2011-09-01

Root architectural models are essential tools to understand how plants access and utilize soil resources during their development. However, root architectural models use complex geometrical descriptions of the root system and this has limitations to model interactions with the soil. This paper presents the development of continuous models based on the concept of oriented density distribution function. The growth of the root system is built as a hierarchical system of partial differential equations (PDEs) that incorporate single root growth parameters such as elongation rate, gravitropism and branching rate which appear explicitly as coefficients of the PDE. Acquisition and transport of nutrients are then modelled by extending Darcy's law to oriented density distribution functions. This framework was applied to build a model of the growth and water uptake of barley root system. This study shows that simplified and computer effective continuous models of the root system development can be constructed. Such models will allow application of root growth models at field scale.

Modeling method of time sequence model based grey system theory and application proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xuexia; Luo, Yaling; Zhang, Shiqiang

2015-12-01

This article gives a modeling method of grey system GM(1,1) model based on reusing information and the grey system theory. This method not only extremely enhances the fitting and predicting accuracy of GM(1,1) model, but also maintains the conventional routes' merit of simple computation. By this way, we have given one syphilis trend forecast method based on reusing information and the grey system GM(1,1) model.

Visual prosthesis wireless energy transfer system optimal modeling.

PubMed

Li, Xueping; Yang, Yuan; Gao, Yong

2014-01-16

Wireless energy transfer system is an effective way to solve the visual prosthesis energy supply problems, theoretical modeling of the system is the prerequisite to do optimal energy transfer system design. On the basis of the ideal model of the wireless energy transfer system, according to visual prosthesis application condition, the system modeling is optimized. During the optimal modeling, taking planar spiral coils as the coupling devices between energy transmitter and receiver, the effect of the parasitic capacitance of the transfer coil is considered, and especially the concept of biological capacitance is proposed to consider the influence of biological tissue on the energy transfer efficiency, resulting in the optimal modeling's more accuracy for the actual application. The simulation data of the optimal model in this paper is compared with that of the previous ideal model, the results show that under high frequency condition, the parasitic capacitance of inductance and biological capacitance considered in the optimal model could have great impact on the wireless energy transfer system. The further comparison with the experimental data verifies the validity and accuracy of the optimal model proposed in this paper. The optimal model proposed in this paper has a higher theoretical guiding significance for the wireless energy transfer system's further research, and provide a more precise model reference for solving the power supply problem in visual prosthesis clinical application.

Update on the Department of the Navy Systems Engineering Career Competency Model Acquisition Activities

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

Model Acquisition Activities Clifford Whitcomb, Systems Engineering Professor, NPS Corina White, Systems Engineering Research Associate, NPS...Engineering Acquisition Activities Karen Holness, Assistant Professor, NPS Update on the Department of the Navy Systems Engineering Career Competency Model ...Career Competency Model Clifford A. Whitcomb—is a Professor in the Systems Engineering Department at the Naval Postgraduate School, in Monterey, CA

Modeling of Water-Breathing Propulsion Systems Utilizing the Aluminum-Seawater Reaction and Solid-Oxide Fuel Cells

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

ABSTRACT Title of Document: MODELING OF WATER-BREATHING PROPULSION SYSTEMS UTILIZING THE ALUMINUM-SEAWATER REACTION AND SOLID...Hybrid Aluminum Combustor (HAC): a novel underwater power system based on the exothermic reaction of aluminum with seawater. The system is modeled ...using a NASA-developed framework called Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) by assembling thermodynamic models developed for each component

The organization of an autonomous learning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanerva, Pentti

1988-01-01

The organization of systems that learn from experience is examined, human beings and animals being prime examples of such systems. How is their information processing organized. They build an internal model of the world and base their actions on the model. The model is dynamic and predictive, and it includes the systems' own actions and their effects. In modeling such systems, a large pattern of features represents a moment of the system's experience. Some of the features are provided by the system's senses, some control the system's motors, and the rest have no immediate external significance. A sequence of such patterns then represents the system's experience over time. By storing such sequences appropriately in memory, the system builds a world model based on experience. In addition to the essential function of memory, fundamental roles are played by a sensory system that makes raw information about the world suitable for memory storage and by a motor system that affects the world. The relation of sensory and motor systems to the memory is discussed, together with how favorable actions can be learned and unfavorable actions can be avoided. Results in classical learning theory are explained in terms of the model, more advanced forms of learning are discussed, and the relevance of the model to the frame problem of robotics is examined.

Mathematical Modeling Of Life-Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seshan, Panchalam K.; Ganapathi, Balasubramanian; Jan, Darrell L.; Ferrall, Joseph F.; Rohatgi, Naresh K.

1994-01-01

Generic hierarchical model of life-support system developed to facilitate comparisons of options in design of system. Model represents combinations of interdependent subsystems supporting microbes, plants, fish, and land animals (including humans). Generic model enables rapid configuration of variety of specific life support component models for tradeoff studies culminating in single system design. Enables rapid evaluation of effects of substituting alternate technologies and even entire groups of technologies and subsystems. Used to synthesize and analyze life-support systems ranging from relatively simple, nonregenerative units like aquariums to complex closed-loop systems aboard submarines or spacecraft. Model, called Generic Modular Flow Schematic (GMFS), coded in such chemical-process-simulation languages as Aspen Plus and expressed as three-dimensional spreadsheet.

Application of growing nested Petri nets for modeling robotic systems operating under risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorokin, E. V.; Senkov, A. V.

2017-10-01

The paper studies the peculiarities of modeling robotic systems engaged in mining. Existing modeling mechanisms are considered, which are based on nested Petri nets, and a new formalism of growing Petri nets is presented that allows modeling robotic systems operating under risk. Modeling is provided both for the regular operation mode and for non-standard modes in which individual elements of the system can perform uncharacteristic functions. The example shows growing Petri nets that are used for modeling extraction of flat coal seams by a robotic system consisting of several different-type autonomous robots.

Comparison of Centralized-Manual, Centralized-Computerized, and Decentralized-Computerized Order and Management Information Models for the Turkish Air Force Logistics System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

differentiation between the systems. This study will investigate an appropriate Order Processing and Management Information System (OP&MIS) to link base-level...methodology: 1. Reviewed the current order processing and information model of the TUAF Logistics System. (centralized-manual model) 2. Described the...RDS program’s order processing and information system. (centralized-computerized model) 3. Described the order irocessing and information system of

Benchmark Comparison of Dual- and Quad-Core Processor Linux Clusters with Two Global Climate Modeling Workloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGalliard, James

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation details the science and systems environments that NASA High End computing program serves. Included is a discussion of the workload that is involved in the processing for the Global Climate Modeling. The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models integrated using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The GEOS-5 system was used for the Benchmark tests, and the results of the tests are shown and discussed. Tests were also run for the Cubed Sphere system, results for these test are also shown.

Model Error Budgets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Hugh C.

2008-01-01

An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

Managing Analysis Models in the Design Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Clark

2006-01-01

Design of large, complex space systems depends on significant model-based support for exploration of the design space. Integrated models predict system performance in mission-relevant terms given design descriptions and multiple physics-based numerical models. Both the design activities and the modeling activities warrant explicit process definitions and active process management to protect the project from excessive risk. Software and systems engineering processes have been formalized and similar formal process activities are under development for design engineering and integrated modeling. JPL is establishing a modeling process to define development and application of such system-level models.

Simulating fail-stop in asynchronous distributed systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabel, Laura; Marzullo, Keith

1994-01-01

The fail-stop failure model appears frequently in the distributed systems literature. However, in an asynchronous distributed system, the fail-stop model cannot be implemented. In particular, it is impossible to reliably detect crash failures in an asynchronous system. In this paper, we show that it is possible to specify and implement a failure model that is indistinguishable from the fail-stop model from the point of view of any process within an asynchronous system. We give necessary conditions for a failure model to be indistinguishable from the fail-stop model, and derive lower bounds on the amount of process replication needed to implement such a failure model. We present a simple one-round protocol for implementing one such failure model, which we call simulated fail-stop.

Zebrafish models for functional and toxicological screening of nanoscale drug delivery systems: promoting preclinical applications

PubMed Central

Lee, Keon Yong; Jang, Gun Hyuk; Byun, Cho Hyun; Jeun, Minhong

2017-01-01

Preclinical screening with animal models is an important initial step in clinical translation of new drug delivery systems. However, establishing efficacy, biodistribution, and biotoxicity of complex, multicomponent systems in small animal models can be expensive and time-consuming. Zebrafish models represent an alternative for preclinical studies for nanoscale drug delivery systems. These models allow easy optical imaging, large sample size, and organ-specific studies, and hence an increasing number of preclinical studies are employing zebrafish models. In this review, we introduce various models and discuss recent studies of nanoscale drug delivery systems in zebrafish models. Also in the end, we proposed a guideline for the preclinical trials to accelerate the progress in this field. PMID:28515222

Zebrafish models for functional and toxicological screening of nanoscale drug delivery systems: promoting preclinical applications.

PubMed

Lee, Keon Yong; Jang, Gun Hyuk; Byun, Cho Hyun; Jeun, Minhong; Searson, Peter C; Lee, Kwan Hyi

2017-06-30

Preclinical screening with animal models is an important initial step in clinical translation of new drug delivery systems. However, establishing efficacy, biodistribution, and biotoxicity of complex, multicomponent systems in small animal models can be expensive and time-consuming. Zebrafish models represent an alternative for preclinical studies for nanoscale drug delivery systems. These models allow easy optical imaging, large sample size, and organ-specific studies, and hence an increasing number of preclinical studies are employing zebrafish models. In this review, we introduce various models and discuss recent studies of nanoscale drug delivery systems in zebrafish models. Also in the end, we proposed a guideline for the preclinical trials to accelerate the progress in this field. © 2017 The Author(s).

Transient Control of Synchronous Machine Active and Reactive Power in Micro-grid Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Luke G.

There are two main topics associated with this dissertation. The first is to investigate phase-to-neutral fault current magnitude occurring in generators with multiple zero-sequence current sources. The second is to design, model, and tune a linear control system for operating a micro-grid in the event of a separation from the electric power system. In the former case, detailed generator, AC8B excitation system, and four-wire electric power system models are constructed. Where available, manufacturers data is used to validate the generator and exciter models. A gain-delay with frequency droop control is used to model an internal combustion engine and governor. The four wire system is connected through a transformer impedance to an infinite bus. Phase-to-neutral faults are imposed on the system, and fault magnitudes analyzed against three-phase faults to gauge their severity. In the latter case, a balanced three-phase system is assumed. The model structure from the former case - but using data for a different generator - is incorporated with a model for an energy storage device and a net load model to form a micro-grid. The primary control model for the energy storage device has a high level of detail, as does the energy storage device plant model in describing the LC filter and transformer. A gain-delay battery and inverter model is used at the front end. The net load model is intended to be the difference between renewable energy sources and load within a micro-grid system that has separated from the grid. Given the variability of both renewable generation and load, frequency and voltage stability are not guaranteed. This work is an attempt to model components of a proposed micro-grid system at the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, and design, model, and tune a linear control system for operation in the event of a separation from the electric power system. The control module is responsible for management of frequency and active power, and voltage and reactive power. The scope of this work is to • develop a mathematical model for a salient pole, 2 damper winding synchronous generator with d axis saturation suitable for transient analysis, • develop a mathematical model for a voltage regulator and excitation system using the IEEE AC8B voltage regulator and excitation system template, • develop mathematical models for an energy storage primary control system, LC filter and transformer suitable for transient analysis, • combine the generator and energy storage models in a micro-grid context, • develop mathematical models for electric system components in the stationary abc frame and rotating dq reference frame, • develop a secondary control network for dispatch of micro-grid assets, • establish micro-grid limits of stable operation for step changes in load and power commands based on simulations of model data assuming net load on the micro-grid, and • use generator and electric system models to assess the generator current magnitude during phase-to-ground faults.

Kinetic models for nitrogen inhibition in ANAMMOX and nitrification process on deammonification system at room temperature.

PubMed

De Prá, Marina C; Kunz, Airton; Bortoli, Marcelo; Scussiato, Lucas A; Coldebella, Arlei; Vanotti, Matias; Soares, Hugo M

2016-02-01

In this study were fitted the best kinetic model for nitrogen removal inhibition by ammonium and/or nitrite in three different nitrogen removal systems operated at 25 °C: a nitrifying system (NF) containing only ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB), an ANAMMOX system (AMX) containing only ANAMMOX bacteria, and a deammonification system (DMX) containing both AOB and ANAMMOX bacteria. NF system showed inhibition by ammonium and was best described by Andrews model. The AMX system showed a strong inhibition by nitrite and Edwards model presented a best system representation. For DMX system, the increased substrate concentration (until 1060 mg NH3-N/L) tested was not limiting for the ammonia consumption rate and the Monod model was the best model to describe this process. The AOB and ANAMMOX sludges combined in the DMX system displayed a better activity, substrate affinity and excellent substrate tolerance than in nitrifying and ANAMMOX process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detailed Modeling of Distillation Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2011-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA?s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents efforts to develop chemical process simulations for three technologies: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system and the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD) using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and modeling results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and recent test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

A discrete control model of PLANT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, C. M.

1985-01-01

A model of the PLANT system using the discrete control modeling techniques developed by Miller is described. Discrete control models attempt to represent in a mathematical form how a human operator might decompose a complex system into simpler parts and how the control actions and system configuration are coordinated so that acceptable overall system performance is achieved. Basic questions include knowledge representation, information flow, and decision making in complex systems. The structure of the model is a general hierarchical/heterarchical scheme which structurally accounts for coordination and dynamic focus of attention. Mathematically, the discrete control model is defined in terms of a network of finite state systems. Specifically, the discrete control model accounts for how specific control actions are selected from information about the controlled system, the environment, and the context of the situation. The objective is to provide a plausible and empirically testable accounting and, if possible, explanation of control behavior.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE PAGES

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2015-10-30

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yang

In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gossman, W. E.

1986-01-01

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, Abraham; Behnke, Michael Robert; Elliott, Ryan Thomas

This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intendedmore » to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.« less

The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the CMAQ Modeling System: Updates through MCIPv3.4.1

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system is a state-of-the science regional air quality modeling system. The CMAQ modeling system has been primarily developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and it has been publically and freely available for more...

Performance modeling of automated manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanadham, N.; Narahari, Y.

A unified and systematic treatment is presented of modeling methodologies and analysis techniques for performance evaluation of automated manufacturing systems. The book is the first treatment of the mathematical modeling of manufacturing systems. Automated manufacturing systems are surveyed and three principal analytical modeling paradigms are discussed: Markov chains, queues and queueing networks, and Petri nets.

Mathematical and Computational Modeling in Complex Biological Systems

PubMed Central

Li, Wenyang; Zhu, Xiaoliang

2017-01-01

The biological process and molecular functions involved in the cancer progression remain difficult to understand for biologists and clinical doctors. Recent developments in high-throughput technologies urge the systems biology to achieve more precise models for complex diseases. Computational and mathematical models are gradually being used to help us understand the omics data produced by high-throughput experimental techniques. The use of computational models in systems biology allows us to explore the pathogenesis of complex diseases, improve our understanding of the latent molecular mechanisms, and promote treatment strategy optimization and new drug discovery. Currently, it is urgent to bridge the gap between the developments of high-throughput technologies and systemic modeling of the biological process in cancer research. In this review, we firstly studied several typical mathematical modeling approaches of biological systems in different scales and deeply analyzed their characteristics, advantages, applications, and limitations. Next, three potential research directions in systems modeling were summarized. To conclude, this review provides an update of important solutions using computational modeling approaches in systems biology. PMID:28386558

Mathematical and Computational Modeling in Complex Biological Systems.

PubMed

Ji, Zhiwei; Yan, Ke; Li, Wenyang; Hu, Haigen; Zhu, Xiaoliang

2017-01-01

The biological process and molecular functions involved in the cancer progression remain difficult to understand for biologists and clinical doctors. Recent developments in high-throughput technologies urge the systems biology to achieve more precise models for complex diseases. Computational and mathematical models are gradually being used to help us understand the omics data produced by high-throughput experimental techniques. The use of computational models in systems biology allows us to explore the pathogenesis of complex diseases, improve our understanding of the latent molecular mechanisms, and promote treatment strategy optimization and new drug discovery. Currently, it is urgent to bridge the gap between the developments of high-throughput technologies and systemic modeling of the biological process in cancer research. In this review, we firstly studied several typical mathematical modeling approaches of biological systems in different scales and deeply analyzed their characteristics, advantages, applications, and limitations. Next, three potential research directions in systems modeling were summarized. To conclude, this review provides an update of important solutions using computational modeling approaches in systems biology.

Coal conversion systems design and process modeling. Volume 1: Application of MPPR and Aspen computer models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The development of a coal gasification system design and mass and energy balance simulation program for the TVA and other similar facilities is described. The materials-process-product model (MPPM) and the advanced system for process engineering (ASPEN) computer program were selected from available steady state and dynamic models. The MPPM was selected to serve as the basis for development of system level design model structure because it provided the capability for process block material and energy balance and high-level systems sizing and costing. The ASPEN simulation serves as the basis for assessing detailed component models for the system design modeling program. The ASPEN components were analyzed to identify particular process blocks and data packages (physical properties) which could be extracted and used in the system design modeling program. While ASPEN physical properties calculation routines are capable of generating physical properties required for process simulation, not all required physical property data are available, and must be user-entered.

A Model for Communications Satellite System Architecture Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

This is shown in Equation 4. The total system cost includes all development, acquisition, fielding, operations, maintenance and upgrades, and system...protection. A mathematical model was implemented to enable the analysis of communications satellite system architectures based on multiple system... implemented to enable the analysis of communications satellite system architectures based on multiple system attributes. Utilization of the model in

Integrative approaches for modeling regulation and function of the respiratory system.

PubMed

Ben-Tal, Alona; Tawhai, Merryn H

2013-01-01

Mathematical models have been central to understanding the interaction between neural control and breathing. Models of the entire respiratory system-which comprises the lungs and the neural circuitry that controls their ventilation-have been derived using simplifying assumptions to compartmentalize each component of the system and to define the interactions between components. These full system models often rely-through necessity-on empirically derived relationships or parameters, in addition to physiological values. In parallel with the development of whole respiratory system models are mathematical models that focus on furthering a detailed understanding of the neural control network, or of the several functions that contribute to gas exchange within the lung. These models are biophysically based, and rely on physiological parameters. They include single-unit models for a breathing lung or neural circuit, through to spatially distributed models of ventilation and perfusion, or multicircuit models for neural control. The challenge is to bring together these more recent advances in models of neural control with models of lung function, into a full simulation for the respiratory system that builds upon the more detailed models but remains computationally tractable. This requires first understanding the mathematical models that have been developed for the respiratory system at different levels, and which could be used to study how physiological levels of O2 and CO2 in the blood are maintained. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

System/observer/controller identification toolbox

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Jer-Nan; Horta, Lucas G.; Phan, Minh

1992-01-01

System Identification is the process of constructing a mathematical model from input and output data for a system under testing, and characterizing the system uncertainties and measurement noises. The mathematical model structure can take various forms depending upon the intended use. The SYSTEM/OBSERVER/CONTROLLER IDENTIFICATION TOOLBOX (SOCIT) is a collection of functions, written in MATLAB language and expressed in M-files, that implements a variety of modern system identification techniques. For an open loop system, the central features of the SOCIT are functions for identification of a system model and its corresponding forward and backward observers directly from input and output data. The system and observers are represented by a discrete model. The identified model and observers may be used for controller design of linear systems as well as identification of modal parameters such as dampings, frequencies, and mode shapes. For a closed-loop system, an observer and its corresponding controller gain directly from input and output data.

A real time Pegasus propulsion system model for VSTOL piloted simulation evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mihaloew, J. R.; Roth, S. P.; Creekmore, R.

1981-01-01

A real time propulsion system modeling technique suitable for use in man-in-the-loop simulator studies was developd. This technique provides the system accuracy, stability, and transient response required for integrated aircraft and propulsion control system studies. A Pegasus-Harrier propulsion system was selected as a baseline for developing mathematical modeling and simulation techniques for VSTOL. Initially, static and dynamic propulsion system characteristics were modeled in detail to form a nonlinear aerothermodynamic digital computer simulation of a Pegasus engine. From this high fidelity simulation, a real time propulsion model was formulated by applying a piece-wise linear state variable methodology. A hydromechanical and water injection control system was also simulated. The real time dynamic model includes the detail and flexibility required for the evaluation of critical control parameters and propulsion component limits over a limited flight envelope. The model was programmed for interfacing with a Harrier aircraft simulation. Typical propulsion system simulation results are presented.

Modeling joint restoration strategies for interdependent infrastructure systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Kong, Jingjing; Simonovic, Slobodan P

2018-01-01

Life in the modern world depends on multiple critical services provided by infrastructure systems which are interdependent at multiple levels. To effectively respond to infrastructure failures, this paper proposes a model for developing optimal joint restoration strategy for interdependent infrastructure systems following a disruptive event. First, models for (i) describing structure of interdependent infrastructure system and (ii) their interaction process, are presented. Both models are considering the failure types, infrastructure operating rules and interdependencies among systems. Second, an optimization model for determining an optimal joint restoration strategy at infrastructure component level by minimizing the economic loss from the infrastructure failures, is proposed. The utility of the model is illustrated using a case study of electric-water systems. Results show that a small number of failed infrastructure components can trigger high level failures in interdependent systems; the optimal joint restoration strategy varies with failure occurrence time. The proposed models can help decision makers to understand the mechanisms of infrastructure interactions and search for optimal joint restoration strategy, which can significantly enhance safety of infrastructure systems.

The TEF modeling and analysis approach to advance thermionic space power technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Albert C.

1997-01-01

Thermionics space power systems have been proposed as advanced power sources for future space missions that require electrical power levels significantly above the capabilities of current space power systems. The Defense Special Weapons Agency's (DSWA) Thermionic Evaluation Facility (TEF) is carrying out both experimental and analytical research to advance thermionic space power technology to meet this expected need. A Modeling and Analysis (M&A) project has been created at the TEF to develop analysis tools, evaluate concepts, and guide research. M&A activities are closely linked to the TEF experimental program, providing experiment support and using experimental data to validate models. A planning exercise has been completed for the M&A project, and a strategy for implementation was developed. All M&A activities will build on a framework provided by a system performance model for a baseline Thermionic Fuel Element (TFE) concept. The system model is composed of sub-models for each of the system components and sub-systems. Additional thermionic component options and model improvements will continue to be incorporated in the basic system model during the course of the program. All tasks are organized into four focus areas: 1) system models, 2) thermionic research, 3) alternative concepts, and 4) documentation and integration. The M&A project will provide a solid framework for future thermionic system development.

Applying Service-Oriented Architecture on The Development of Groundwater Modeling Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C. Y.; WANG, Y.; Chang, L. C.; Tsai, J. P.; Hsiao, C. T.

2016-12-01

Groundwater simulation has become an essential step on the groundwater resources management and assessment. There are many stand-alone pre- and post-processing software packages to alleviate the model simulation loading, but the stand-alone software do not consider centralized management of data and simulation results neither do they provide network sharing functions. Hence, it is difficult to share and reuse the data and knowledge (simulation cases) systematically within or across companies. Therefore, this study develops a centralized and network based groundwater modeling support system to assist model construction. The system is based on service-oriented architecture and allows remote user to develop their modeling cases on internet. The data and cases (knowledge) are thus easy to manage centralized. MODFLOW is the modeling engine of the system, which is the most popular groundwater model in the world. The system provides a data warehouse to restore groundwater observations, MODFLOW Support Service, MODFLOW Input File & Shapefile Convert Service, MODFLOW Service, and Expert System Service to assist researchers to build models. Since the system architecture is service-oriented, it is scalable and flexible. The system can be easily extended to include the scenarios analysis and knowledge management to facilitate the reuse of groundwater modeling knowledge.

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack B.; Hirsch, Gary B.

2006-01-01

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance. System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy. PMID:16449591

Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robin D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Millonas, Mark

2006-01-01

A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.

An Information System Development Method Combining Business Process Modeling with Executable Modeling and its Evaluation by Prototyping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okawa, Tsutomu; Kaminishi, Tsukasa; Hirabayashi, Syuichi; Suzuki, Ryo; Mitsui, Hiroyasu; Koizumi, Hisao

The business in the enterprise is closely related with the information system to such an extent that the business activities are difficult without the information system. The system design technique that considers the business process well, and that enables a quick system development is requested. In addition, the demand for the development cost is also severe than before. To cope with the current situation, the modeling technology named BPM(Business Process Management/Modeling)is drawing attention and becoming important as a key technology. BPM is a technology to model business activities as business processes and visualize them to improve the business efficiency. However, a general methodology to develop the information system using the analysis result of BPM doesn't exist, and a few development cases are reported. This paper proposes an information system development method combining business process modeling with executable modeling. In this paper we describe a guideline to support consistency of development and development efficiency and the framework enabling to develop the information system from model. We have prototyped the information system with the proposed method and our experience has shown that the methodology is valuable.

Simplifying and upscaling water resources systems models that combine natural and engineered components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntyre, N.; Keir, G.

2014-12-01

Water supply systems typically encompass components of both natural systems (e.g. catchment runoff, aquifer interception) and engineered systems (e.g. process equipment, water storages and transfers). Many physical processes of varying spatial and temporal scales are contained within these hybrid systems models. The need to aggregate and simplify system components has been recognised for reasons of parsimony and comprehensibility; and the use of probabilistic methods for modelling water-related risks also prompts the need to seek computationally efficient up-scaled conceptualisations. How to manage the up-scaling errors in such hybrid systems models has not been well-explored, compared to research in the hydrological process domain. Particular challenges include the non-linearity introduced by decision thresholds and non-linear relations between water use, water quality, and discharge strategies. Using a case study of a mining region, we explore the nature of up-scaling errors in water use, water quality and discharge, and we illustrate an approach to identification of a scale-adjusted model including an error model. Ways forward for efficient modelling of such complex, hybrid systems are discussed, including interactions with human, energy and carbon systems models.

A Novel Approach to Develop the Lower Order Model of Multi-Input Multi-Output System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajalakshmy, P.; Dharmalingam, S.; Jayakumar, J.

2017-10-01

A mathematical model is a virtual entity that uses mathematical language to describe the behavior of a system. Mathematical models are used particularly in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines like physics, biology, and electrical engineering as well as in the social sciences like economics, sociology and political science. Physicists, Engineers, Computer scientists, and Economists use mathematical models most extensively. With the advent of high performance processors and advanced mathematical computations, it is possible to develop high performing simulators for complicated Multi Input Multi Ouptut (MIMO) systems like Quadruple tank systems, Aircrafts, Boilers etc. This paper presents the development of the mathematical model of a 500 MW utility boiler which is a highly complex system. A synergistic combination of operational experience, system identification and lower order modeling philosophy has been effectively used to develop a simplified but accurate model of a circulation system of a utility boiler which is a MIMO system. The results obtained are found to be in good agreement with the physics of the process and with the results obtained through design procedure. The model obtained can be directly used for control system studies and to realize hardware simulators for boiler testing and operator training.

Automated method for the systematic interpretation of resonance peaks in spectrum data

DOEpatents

Damiano, B.; Wood, R.T.

1997-04-22

A method is described for spectral signature interpretation. The method includes the creation of a mathematical model of a system or process. A neural network training set is then developed based upon the mathematical model. The neural network training set is developed by using the mathematical model to generate measurable phenomena of the system or process based upon model input parameter that correspond to the physical condition of the system or process. The neural network training set is then used to adjust internal parameters of a neural network. The physical condition of an actual system or process represented by the mathematical model is then monitored by extracting spectral features from measured spectra of the actual process or system. The spectral features are then input into said neural network to determine the physical condition of the system or process represented by the mathematical model. More specifically, the neural network correlates the spectral features (i.e. measurable phenomena) of the actual process or system with the corresponding model input parameters. The model input parameters relate to specific components of the system or process, and, consequently, correspond to the physical condition of the process or system. 1 fig.

The water-energy nexus at water supply and its implications on the integrated water and energy management.

PubMed

Khalkhali, Masoumeh; Westphal, Kirk; Mo, Weiwei

2018-09-15

Water and energy are highly interdependent in the modern world, and hence, it is important to understand their constantly changing and nonlinear interconnections to inform the integrated management of water and energy. In this study, a hydrologic model, a water systems model, and an energy model were developed and integrated into a system dynamics modeling framework. This framework was then applied to a water supply system in the northeast US to capture its water-energy interactions under a set of future population, climate, and system operation scenarios. A hydrologic model was first used to simulate the system's hydrologic inflows and outflows under temperature and precipitation changes on a weekly-basis. A water systems model that combines the hydrologic model and management rules (e.g., water release and transfer) was then developed to dynamically simulate the system's water storage and water head. Outputs from the water systems model were used in the energy model to estimate hydropower generation. It was found that critical water-energy synergies and tradeoffs exist, and there is a possibility for integrated water and energy management to achieve better outcomes. This analysis also shows the importance of a holistic understanding of the systems as a whole, which would allow utility managers to make proactive long-term management decisions. The modeling framework is generalizable to other water supply systems with hydropower generation capacities to inform the integrated management of water and energy resources. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, Walter; Guo, Ten-Huei; Duyar, Ahmet

1991-01-01

This paper presents a tutorial on the use of model identification techniques for the identification of propulsion system models. These models are important for control design, simulation, parameter estimation, and fault detection. Propulsion system identification is defined in the context of the classical description of identification as a four step process that is unique because of special considerations of data and error sources. Propulsion system models are described along with the dependence of system operation on the environment. Propulsion system simulation approaches are discussed as well as approaches to propulsion system identification with examples for both air breathing and rocket systems.

Use case driven approach to develop simulation model for PCS of APR1400 simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong Wook, Kim; Hong Soo, Kim; Hyeon Tae, Kang

2006-07-01

The full-scope simulator is being developed to evaluate specific design feature and to support the iterative design and validation in the Man-Machine Interface System (MMIS) design of Advanced Power Reactor (APR) 1400. The simulator consists of process model, control logic model, and MMI for the APR1400 as well as the Power Control System (PCS). In this paper, a use case driven approach is proposed to develop a simulation model for PCS. In this approach, a system is considered from the point of view of its users. User's view of the system is based on interactions with the system and themore » resultant responses. In use case driven approach, we initially consider the system as a black box and look at its interactions with the users. From these interactions, use cases of the system are identified. Then the system is modeled using these use cases as functions. Lower levels expand the functionalities of each of these use cases. Hence, starting from the topmost level view of the system, we proceeded down to the lowest level (the internal view of the system). The model of the system thus developed is use case driven. This paper will introduce the functionality of the PCS simulation model, including a requirement analysis based on use case and the validation result of development of PCS model. The PCS simulation model using use case will be first used during the full-scope simulator development for nuclear power plant and will be supplied to Shin-Kori 3 and 4 plant. The use case based simulation model development can be useful for the design and implementation of simulation models. (authors)« less

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei--Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2010-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale models can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving models through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model). (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, W8F). (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling systems to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems to Study the Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2010-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Dragon pulse information management system (DPIMS): A unique model-based approach to implementing domain agnostic system of systems and behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Thomas S.

2016-05-01

The Global Information Network Architecture is an information technology based on Vector Relational Data Modeling, a unique computational paradigm, DoD network certified by USARMY as the Dragon Pulse Informa- tion Management System. This network available modeling environment for modeling models, where models are configured using domain relevant semantics and use network available systems, sensors, databases and services as loosely coupled component objects and are executable applications. Solutions are based on mission tactics, techniques, and procedures and subject matter input. Three recent ARMY use cases are discussed a) ISR SoS. b) Modeling and simulation behavior validation. c) Networked digital library with behaviors.

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; DiVenti, Tony

2016-01-01

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation

PubMed Central

Huang, Xuqing; Vodenska, Irena; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

As economic entities become increasingly interconnected, a shock in a financial network can provoke significant cascading failures throughout the system. To study the systemic risk of financial systems, we create a bi-partite banking network model composed of banks and bank assets and propose a cascading failure model to describe the risk propagation process during crises. We empirically test the model with 2007 US commercial banks balance sheet data and compare the model prediction of the failed banks with the real failed banks after 2007. We find that our model efficiently identifies a significant portion of the actual failed banks reported by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The results suggest that this model could be useful for systemic risk stress testing for financial systems. The model also identifies that commercial rather than residential real estate assets are major culprits for the failure of over 350 US commercial banks during 2008–2011. PMID:23386974

Modeling acclimatization by hybrid systems: condition changes alter biological system behavior models.

PubMed

Assar, Rodrigo; Montecino, Martín A; Maass, Alejandro; Sherman, David J

2014-07-01

In order to describe the dynamic behavior of a complex biological system, it is useful to combine models integrating processes at different levels and with temporal dependencies. Such combinations are necessary for modeling acclimatization, a phenomenon where changes in environmental conditions can induce drastic changes in the behavior of a biological system. In this article we formalize the use of hybrid systems as a tool to model this kind of biological behavior. A modeling scheme called strong switches is proposed. It allows one to take into account both minor adjustments to the coefficients of a continuous model, and, more interestingly, large-scale changes to the structure of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with two applications: acclimatization in wine fermentation kinetics, and acclimatization of osteo-adipo differentiation system linking stimulus signals to bone mass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Overall Spatial Quality of Automotive Audio Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Daisuke

The spatial quality of automotive audio systems is often compromised due to their unideal listening environments. Automotive audio systems need to be developed quickly due to industry demands. A suitable perceptual model could evaluate the spatial quality of automotive audio systems with similar reliability to formal listening tests but take less time. Such a model is developed in this research project by adapting an existing model of spatial quality for automotive audio use. The requirements for the adaptation were investigated in a literature review. A perceptual model called QESTRAL was reviewed, which predicts the overall spatial quality of domestic multichannel audio systems. It was determined that automotive audio systems are likely to be impaired in terms of the spatial attributes that were not considered in developing the QESTRAL model, but metrics are available that might predict these attributes. To establish whether the QESTRAL model in its current form can accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems, MUSHRA listening tests using headphone auralisation with head tracking were conducted to collect results to be compared against predictions by the model. Based on guideline criteria, the model in its current form could not accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems. To improve prediction performance, the QESTRAL model was recalibrated and modified using existing metrics of the model, those that were proposed from the literature review, and newly developed metrics. The most important metrics for predicting the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems included those that were interaural cross-correlation (IACC) based, relate to localisation of the frontal audio scene, and account for the perceived scene width in front of the listener. Modifying the model for automotive audio systems did not invalidate its use for domestic audio systems. The resulting model predicts the overall spatial quality of 2- and 5-channel automotive audio systems with a cross-validation performance of R. 2 = 0.85 and root-mean-squareerror (RMSE) = 11.03%.

Real-Time Reliability Verification for UAV Flight Control System Supporting Airworthiness Certification.

PubMed

Xu, Haiyang; Wang, Ping

2016-01-01

In order to verify the real-time reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight control system and comply with the airworthiness certification standard, we proposed a model-based integration framework for modeling and verification of time property. Combining with the advantages of MARTE, this framework uses class diagram to create the static model of software system, and utilizes state chart to create the dynamic model. In term of the defined transformation rules, the MARTE model could be transformed to formal integrated model, and the different part of the model could also be verified by using existing formal tools. For the real-time specifications of software system, we also proposed a generating algorithm for temporal logic formula, which could automatically extract real-time property from time-sensitive live sequence chart (TLSC). Finally, we modeled the simplified flight control system of UAV to check its real-time property. The results showed that the framework could be used to create the system model, as well as precisely analyze and verify the real-time reliability of UAV flight control system.

Real-Time Reliability Verification for UAV Flight Control System Supporting Airworthiness Certification

PubMed Central

Xu, Haiyang; Wang, Ping

2016-01-01

In order to verify the real-time reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight control system and comply with the airworthiness certification standard, we proposed a model-based integration framework for modeling and verification of time property. Combining with the advantages of MARTE, this framework uses class diagram to create the static model of software system, and utilizes state chart to create the dynamic model. In term of the defined transformation rules, the MARTE model could be transformed to formal integrated model, and the different part of the model could also be verified by using existing formal tools. For the real-time specifications of software system, we also proposed a generating algorithm for temporal logic formula, which could automatically extract real-time property from time-sensitive live sequence chart (TLSC). Finally, we modeled the simplified flight control system of UAV to check its real-time property. The results showed that the framework could be used to create the system model, as well as precisely analyze and verify the real-time reliability of UAV flight control system. PMID:27918594

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin; Anderson, Molly

2011-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA) that were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

Translation from UML to Markov Model: A Performance Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Razib Hayat; Heegaard, Poul E.

Performance engineering focuses on the quantitative investigation of the behavior of a system during the early phase of the system development life cycle. Bearing this on mind, we delineate a performance modeling framework of the application for communication system that proposes a translation process from high level UML notation to Continuous Time Markov Chain model (CTMC) and solves the model for relevant performance metrics. The framework utilizes UML collaborations, activity diagrams and deployment diagrams to be used for generating performance model for a communication system. The system dynamics will be captured by UML collaboration and activity diagram as reusable specification building blocks, while deployment diagram highlights the components of the system. The collaboration and activity show how reusable building blocks in the form of collaboration can compose together the service components through input and output pin by highlighting the behavior of the components and later a mapping between collaboration and system component identified by deployment diagram will be delineated. Moreover the UML models are annotated to associate performance related quality of service (QoS) information which is necessary for solving the performance model for relevant performance metrics through our proposed framework. The applicability of our proposed performance modeling framework in performance evaluation is delineated in the context of modeling a communication system.

Combustion system CFD modeling at GE Aircraft Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrus, D.; Mongia, H.; Tolpadi, Anil K.; Correa, S.; Braaten, M.

1995-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses key features of current combustion system CFD modeling capabilities at GE Aircraft Engines provided by the CONCERT code; CONCERT development history; modeling applied for designing engine combustion systems; modeling applied to improve fundamental understanding; CONCERT3D results for current production combustors; CONCERT3D model of NASA/GE E3 combustor; HYBRID CONCERT CFD/Monte-Carlo modeling approach; and future modeling directions.

Combustion system CFD modeling at GE Aircraft Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrus, D.; Mongia, H.; Tolpadi, Anil K.; Correa, S.; Braaten, M.

1995-03-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses key features of current combustion system CFD modeling capabilities at GE Aircraft Engines provided by the CONCERT code; CONCERT development history; modeling applied for designing engine combustion systems; modeling applied to improve fundamental understanding; CONCERT3D results for current production combustors; CONCERT3D model of NASA/GE E3 combustor; HYBRID CONCERT CFD/Monte-Carlo modeling approach; and future modeling directions.

System Behavior Models: A Survey of Approaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

MODELS: A SURVEY OF APPROACHES by Scott R. Ruppel June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Kristin Giammarco Second Reader: John M. Green THIS PAGE...Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE SYSTEM BEHAVIOR MODELS: A SURVEY OF APPROACHES 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Scott R. Ruppel 7. PERFORMING...Monterey Phoenix, Petri nets, behavior modeling, model-based systems engineering, modeling approaches, modeling survey 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 85 16

Numerical Modeling of Pressurization of Cryogenic Propellant Tank for Integrated Vehicle Fluid System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, Alok K.; LeClair, Andre C.; Hedayat, Ali

2016-01-01

This paper presents a numerical model of pressurization of a cryogenic propellant tank for the Integrated Vehicle Fluid (IVF) system using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The IVF propulsion system, being developed by United Launch Alliance, uses boiloff propellants to drive thrusters for the reaction control system as well as to run internal combustion engines to develop power and drive compressors to pressurize propellant tanks. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been running tests to verify the functioning of the IVF system using a flight tank. GFSSP, a finite volume based flow network analysis software developed at MSFC, has been used to develop an integrated model of the tank and the pressurization system. This paper presents an iterative algorithm for converging the interface boundary conditions between different component models of a large system model. The model results have been compared with test data.

Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

2017-08-01

Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model has lower degrees of freedom. Both approaches rely on previously developed lifetime models each of them corresponding to predefined SoH. Concerning first approach, model selection is aided by state-machine-based algorithm. In the second approach, model selection conditioned by tracking an exceedance of predefined thresholds is concerned. The approach is applied to data generated from tribological systems. By calculating Root Squared Error (RSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Absolute Error (ABE) the accuracy of proposed models/approaches is discussed along with related advantages and disadvantages. Verification of the approach is done using cross-fold validation, exchanging training and test data. It can be stated that the newly introduced approach based on data (denoted as data-based or data-driven) parametric models can be easily established providing detailed information about remaining useful/consumed lifetime valid for systems with constant load but stochastically occurred damage.

An architecture for the development of real-time fault diagnosis systems using model-based reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Gardiner A.; Schuetzle, James; Lavallee, David; Gupta, Uday

1992-01-01

Presented here is an architecture for implementing real-time telemetry based diagnostic systems using model-based reasoning. First, we describe Paragon, a knowledge acquisition tool for offline entry and validation of physical system models. Paragon provides domain experts with a structured editing capability to capture the physical component's structure, behavior, and causal relationships. We next describe the architecture of the run time diagnostic system. The diagnostic system, written entirely in Ada, uses the behavioral model developed offline by Paragon to simulate expected component states as reflected in the telemetry stream. The diagnostic algorithm traces causal relationships contained within the model to isolate system faults. Since the diagnostic process relies exclusively on the behavioral model and is implemented without the use of heuristic rules, it can be used to isolate unpredicted faults in a wide variety of systems. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a prototype system constructed using this technique for diagnosing faults in a science instrument. The prototype demonstrates the use of model-based reasoning to develop maintainable systems with greater diagnostic capabilities at a lower cost.

Process Model of A Fusion Fuel Recovery System for a Direct Drive IFE Power Reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natta, Saswathi; Aristova, Maria; Gentile, Charles

2008-11-01

A task has been initiated to develop a detailed representative model for the fuel recovery system (FRS) in the prospective direct drive inertial fusion energy (IFE) reactor. As part of the conceptual design phase of the project, a chemical process model is developed in order to observe the interaction of system components. This process model is developed using FEMLAB Multiphysics software with the corresponding chemical engineering module (CEM). Initially, the reactants, system structure, and processes are defined using known chemical species of the target chamber exhaust. Each step within the Fuel recovery system is modeled compartmentally and then merged to form the closed loop fuel recovery system. The output, which includes physical properties and chemical content of the products, is analyzed after each step of the system to determine the most efficient and productive system parameters. This will serve to attenuate possible bottlenecks in the system. This modeling evaluation is instrumental in optimizing and closing the fusion fuel cycle in a direct drive IFE power reactor. The results of the modeling are presented in this paper.

Nonlinear feedback model attitude control using CCD in magnetic suspension system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, CHIN-E.; Hou, Ann-San

1994-01-01

A model attitude control system for a CCD camera magnetic suspension system is studied in this paper. In a recent work, a position and attitude sensing method was proposed. From this result, model position and attitude of a magnetic suspension system can be detected by generating digital outputs. Based on this achievement, a control system design using nonlinear feedback techniques for magnetic suspended model attitude control is proposed.

Data-Adaptable Modeling and Optimization for Runtime Adaptable Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-08

execution scenarios e . Enables model -guided optimization algorithms that outperform state-of-the-art f. Understands the overhead of system...the Data-Adaptable System Model (DASM), that facilitates design by enabling the designer to: 1) specify both an application’s task flow as well as...systems. The MILAN [3] framework specializes in the design, simulation , and synthesis of System On Chip (SoC) applications using model -based techniques

Development of Volatile Oil of Mustard and Vanillin as an Effective Food Preservation System for Military Bread and Baked Goods

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

Page 1. Shows the growth of Aspergillus niger in the model system at different concentrations of vanillin...5 2. Shows the growth of Aspergillus niger in the model system in the presence of different... Aspergillus niger and Penicillium notatum in the model system. 5 3. The growth or no growth of Aspergillus niger in the model system in the

Introducing DAE Systems in Undergraduate and Graduate Chemical Engineering Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandela, Ravi Kumar; Sridhar, L. N.; Rengaswamy, Raghunathan

2010-01-01

Models play an important role in understanding chemical engineering systems. While differential equation models are taught in standard modeling and control courses, Differential Algebraic Equation (DAE) system models are not usually introduced. These models appear naturally in several chemical engineering problems. In this paper, the introduction…

Topology of Document Retrieval Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Everett, Daniel M.; Cater, Steven C.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of a topological structure to examine the closeness between documents in retrieval systems and analyzes the topological structure of a vector-space model, a fuzzy-set model, an extended Boolean model, a probabilistic model, and a TIRS (Topological Information Retrieval System) model. Proofs for the results are appended. (17…

LINKING ETA MODEL WITH THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODELING SYSTEM: OZONE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A prototype surface ozone concentration forecasting model system for the Eastern U.S. has been developed. The model system is consisting of a regional meteorological and a regional air quality model. It demonstrated a strong prediction dependence on its ozone boundary conditions....

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Hay, L.E.; ,

2005-01-01

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling.

PubMed

Jones, James W; Antle, John M; Basso, Bruno; Boote, Kenneth J; Conant, Richard T; Foster, Ian; Godfray, H Charles J; Herrero, Mario; Howitt, Richard E; Janssen, Sander; Keating, Brian A; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael; Porter, Cheryl H; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Wheeler, Tim R

2017-07-01

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling

DOE PAGES

Jones, James W.; Antle, John M.; Basso, Bruno; ...

2017-06-21

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of thismore » history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. Furthermore, the lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.« less

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, James W.; Antle, John M.; Basso, Bruno

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of thismore » history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. Furthermore, the lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.« less

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, James W.; Antle, John M.; Basso, Bruno O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conant, Richard T.; Foster, Ian; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Herrrero, Mario; Howitt, Richard E.; Janssen, Sandor;

NASA Lewis Wind Tunnel Model Systems Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soeder, Ronald H.; Haller, Henry C.

1994-01-01

This report describes criteria for the design, analysis, quality assurance, and documentation of models or test articles that are to be tested in the aeropropulsion facilities at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The report presents three methods for computing model allowable stresses on the basis of the yield stress or ultimate stress, and it gives quality assurance criteria for models tested in Lewis' aeropropulsion facilities. Both customer-furnished model systems and in-house model systems are discussed. The functions of the facility manager, project engineer, operations engineer, research engineer, and facility electrical engineer are defined. The format for pretest meetings, prerun safety meetings, and the model criteria review are outlined Then, the format for the model systems report (a requirement for each model that is to be tested at NASA Lewis) is described, the engineers that are responsible for developing the model systems report are listed, and the time table for its delivery to the facility manager is given.

A complete categorization of multiscale models of infectious disease systems.

PubMed

Garira, Winston

2017-12-01

Modelling of infectious disease systems has entered a new era in which disease modellers are increasingly turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling frameworks into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy in characterizing infectious disease systems. In this paper we present a categorization framework for categorizing multiscale models of infectious disease systems. The categorization framework consists of five integration frameworks and five criteria. We use the categorization framework to give a complete categorization of host-level immuno-epidemiological models (HL-IEMs). This categorization framework is also shown to be applicable in categorizing other types of multiscale models of infectious diseases beyond HL-IEMs through modifying the initial categorization framework presented in this study. Categorization of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in this way is useful in bringing some order to the discussion on the structure of these multiscale models.

System and Software Reliability (C103)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores

2003-01-01

Within the last decade better reliability models (hardware. software, system) than those currently used have been theorized and developed but not implemented in practice. Previous research on software reliability has shown that while some existing software reliability models are practical, they are no accurate enough. New paradigms of development (e.g. OO) have appeared and associated reliability models have been proposed posed but not investigated. Hardware models have been extensively investigated but not integrated into a system framework. System reliability modeling is the weakest of the three. NASA engineers need better methods and tools to demonstrate that the products meet NASA requirements for reliability measurement. For the new models for the software component of the last decade, there is a great need to bring them into a form that they can be used on software intensive systems. The Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Systems (SMERFS'3) tool is an existing vehicle that may be used to incorporate these new modeling advances. Adapting some existing software reliability modeling changes to accommodate major changes in software development technology may also show substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. With some additional research, the next step is to identify and investigate system reliability. System reliability models could then be incorporated in a tool such as SMERFS'3. This tool with better models would greatly add value in assess in GSFC projects.

Model based design introduction: modeling game controllers to microprocessor architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungwirth, Patrick; Badawy, Abdel-Hameed

2017-04-01

We present an introduction to model based design. Model based design is a visual representation, generally a block diagram, to model and incrementally develop a complex system. Model based design is a commonly used design methodology for digital signal processing, control systems, and embedded systems. Model based design's philosophy is: to solve a problem - a step at a time. The approach can be compared to a series of steps to converge to a solution. A block diagram simulation tool allows a design to be simulated with real world measurement data. For example, if an analog control system is being upgraded to a digital control system, the analog sensor input signals can be recorded. The digital control algorithm can be simulated with the real world sensor data. The output from the simulated digital control system can then be compared to the old analog based control system. Model based design can compared to Agile software develop. The Agile software development goal is to develop working software in incremental steps. Progress is measured in completed and tested code units. Progress is measured in model based design by completed and tested blocks. We present a concept for a video game controller and then use model based design to iterate the design towards a working system. We will also describe a model based design effort to develop an OS Friendly Microprocessor Architecture based on the RISC-V.

Design and Implementation of an Intelligent Cost Estimation Model for Decision Support System Software

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

following two chapters. 28 V. COCOMO MODEL A. OVERVIEW The COCOMO model which stands for COnstructive COst MOdel was developed by Barry Boehm and is...estimation model which uses an expert system to automate the Intermediate COnstructive Cost Estimation MOdel (COCOMO), developed by Barry W. Boehm and...cost estimation model which uses an expert system to automate the Intermediate COnstructive Cost Estimation MOdel (COCOMO), developed by Barry W

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Anderson, D.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.; Houser, P.; Hou, A.; Lang, S.; Lau, W.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kakar, R.;

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2012-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA). These dynamic models were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler (Registered TradeMark) and Aspen Plus(Registered TradeMark) process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

Using explanatory crop models to develop simple tools for Advanced Life Support system studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavazzoni, J.

2004-01-01

System-level analyses for Advanced Life Support require mathematical models for various processes, such as for biomass production and waste management, which would ideally be integrated into overall system models. Explanatory models (also referred to as mechanistic or process models) would provide the basis for a more robust system model, as these would be based on an understanding of specific processes. However, implementing such models at the system level may not always be practicable because of their complexity. For the area of biomass production, explanatory models were used to generate parameters and multivariable polynomial equations for basic models that are suitable for estimating the direction and magnitude of daily changes in canopy gas-exchange, harvest index, and production scheduling for both nominal and off-nominal growing conditions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems engineering in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project: an application of model based systems engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claver, C. F.; Selvy, Brian M.; Angeli, George; Delgado, Francisco; Dubois-Felsmann, Gregory; Hascall, Patrick; Lotz, Paul; Marshall, Stuart; Schumacher, German; Sebag, Jacques

2014-08-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project was an early adopter of SysML and Model Based Systems Engineering practices. The LSST project began using MBSE for requirements engineering beginning in 2006 shortly after the initial release of the first SysML standard. Out of this early work the LSST's MBSE effort has grown to include system requirements, operational use cases, physical system definition, interfaces, and system states along with behavior sequences and activities. In this paper we describe our approach and methodology for cross-linking these system elements over the three classical systems engineering domains - requirement, functional and physical - into the LSST System Architecture model. We also show how this model is used as the central element to the overall project systems engineering effort. More recently we have begun to use the cross-linked modeled system architecture to develop and plan the system verification and test process. In presenting this work we also describe "lessons learned" from several missteps the project has had with MBSE. Lastly, we conclude by summarizing the overall status of the LSST's System Architecture model and our plans for the future as the LSST heads toward construction.

Quantitative Predictive Models for Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Models to identify systemic and specific target organ toxicity were developed to help transition the field of toxicology towards computational models. By leveraging multiple data sources to incorporate read-across and machine learning approaches, a quantitative model of systemic ...

Historical Text Comprehension Reflective Tutorial Dialogue System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigoriadou, Maria; Tsaganou, Grammatiki; Cavoura, Theodora

2005-01-01

The Reflective Tutorial Dialogue System (ReTuDiS) is a system for learner modelling historical text comprehension through reflective dialogue. The system infers learners' cognitive profiles and constructs their learner models. Based on the learner model the system plans the appropriate--personalized for learners--reflective tutorial dialogue in…

A hierarchy for modeling high speed propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T.; Deabreu, Alex

1991-01-01

General research efforts on reduced order propulsion models for control systems design are overviewed. Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems are discussed including internal flow propulsion systems that do not contain rotating machinery, such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. The discussion is separated into four areas: (1) computational fluid dynamics models for the entire nonlinear system or high order nonlinear models; (2) high order linearized models derived from fundamental physics; (3) low order linear models obtained from the other high order models; and (4) low order nonlinear models (order here refers to the number of dynamic states). Included in the discussion are any special considerations based on the relevant control system designs. The methods discussed are for the quasi-one-dimensional Euler equations of gasdynamic flow. The essential nonlinear features represented are large amplitude nonlinear waves, including moving normal shocks, hammershocks, simple subsonic combustion via heat addition, temperature dependent gases, detonations, and thermal choking. The report also contains a comprehensive list of papers and theses generated by this grant.

Modeling of Electrocardiograph Telediagnosing System Based on Petri Net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Wensong; Li, Ming; Li, Lan

This paper analyzed the characteristics of the electrocardiograph telediagnosing system. Firstly, we introduce the system and Petri nets. Secondly, we built a topological diagram of this system. Then we use Petri nets to show the physical process of this system. Finally, we verified the model of the electrocardiograph telediagnosing system. With the help of model based on Petri nets, we analyzed the system performance and feasibility.

Development of fish-based model systems with various microstructures.

PubMed

Verheyen, Davy; Baka, Maria; Glorieux, Seline; Duquenne, Barbara; Fraeye, Ilse; Skåra, Torstein; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-04-01

The effectiveness of predictive microbiology is limited by the lack of knowledge concerning the influence of food microstructure on microbial dynamics. Therefore, future modelling attempts should be based on experiments in structured food model systems as well as liquid systems. In this study, fish-based model systems with various microstructures were developed, i.e., two liquid systems (with and without xanthan gum), an emulsion, an aqueous gel, and a gelled emulsion. The microstructural effect was isolated by minimising compositional and physico-chemical changes among the different model systems. The systems were suitable for common growth and mild thermal inactivation experiments involving both homogeneous and surface inoculation. Average pH of the model systems was 6.36±0.03 and average a w was 0.988±0.002. The liquid system without xanthan gum behaved like a Newtonian fluid, while the emulsion and the liquid containing xanthan gum exhibited (non-Newtonian) pseudo-plastic behaviour. Both the aqueous gel and gelled emulsion were classified as strong gels, with a hardness of 1.35±0.07N and 1.25±0.05N, respectively. Fat droplet size of the emulsion and gelled emulsion model systems was evenly distributed around 1μm. In general, the set of model systems was proven to be suitable to study the influence of important aspects of food microstructure on microbial dynamics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Training Requirements Analysis Model (TRAMOD).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czuchry, Andrew J.; And Others

The training requirements analysis model (TRAMOD) described in this report represents an important portion of the larger effort called the Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS) Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Study. TRAMOD is the second of three models that comprise an LCC impact modeling system for use in the early stages of system development. As…

Exploring Behavioral Markers of Long-Term Physical Activity Maintenance: A Case Study of System Identification Modeling within a Behavioral Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hekler, Eric B.; Buman, Matthew P.; Poothakandiyil, Nikhil; Rivera, Daniel E.; Dzierzewski, Joseph M.; Aiken Morgan, Adrienne; McCrae, Christina S.; Roberts, Beverly L.; Marsiske, Michael; Giacobbi, Peter R., Jr.

2013-01-01

Efficacious interventions to promote long-term maintenance of physical activity are not well understood. Engineers have developed methods to create dynamical system models for modeling idiographic (i.e., within-person) relationships within systems. In behavioral research, dynamical systems modeling may assist in decomposing intervention effects…

ENSEMBLE and AMET: Two Systems and Approaches to a Harmonized, Simplified and Efficient Facility for Air Quality Models Development and Evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

The complexity of air quality modeling systems, air quality monitoring data make ad-hoc systems for model evaluation important aids to the modeling community. Among those are the ENSEMBLE system developed by the EC-Joint Research Center, and the AMET software developed by the US-...

Artificial intelligence techniques for modeling database user behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanner, Steve; Graves, Sara J.

1990-01-01

The design and development of the adaptive modeling system is described. This system models how a user accesses a relational database management system in order to improve its performance by discovering use access patterns. In the current system, these patterns are used to improve the user interface and may be used to speed data retrieval, support query optimization and support a more flexible data representation. The system models both syntactic and semantic information about the user's access and employs both procedural and rule-based logic to manipulate the model.

Geometric state space uncertainty as a new type of uncertainty addressing disparity in ';emergent properties' between real and modeled systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montero, J. T.; Lintz, H. E.; Sharp, D.

2013-12-01

Do emergent properties that result from models of complex systems match emergent properties from real systems? This question targets a type of uncertainty that we argue requires more attention in system modeling and validation efforts. We define an ';emergent property' to be an attribute or behavior of a modeled or real system that can be surprising or unpredictable and result from complex interactions among the components of a system. For example, thresholds are common across diverse systems and scales and can represent emergent system behavior that is difficult to predict. Thresholds or other types of emergent system behavior can be characterized by their geometry in state space (where state space is the space containing the set of all states of a dynamic system). One way to expedite our growing mechanistic understanding of how emergent properties emerge from complex systems is to compare the geometry of surfaces in state space between real and modeled systems. Here, we present an index (threshold strength) that can quantify a geometric attribute of a surface in state space. We operationally define threshold strength as how strongly a surface in state space resembles a step or an abrupt transition between two system states. First, we validated the index for application in greater than three dimensions of state space using simulated data. Then, we demonstrated application of the index in measuring geometric state space uncertainty between a real system and a deterministic, modeled system. In particular, we looked at geometric space uncertainty between climate behavior in 20th century and modeled climate behavior simulated by global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Surfaces from the climate models came from running the models over the same domain as the real data. We also created response surfaces from a real, climate data based on an empirical model that produces a geometric surface of predicted values in state space. We used a kernel regression method designed to capture the geometry of real data pattern without imposing shape assumptions a priori on the data; this kernel regression method is known as Non-parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR). We found that quantifying and comparing a geometric attribute in more than three dimensions of state space can discern whether the emergent nature of complex interactions in modeled systems matches that of real systems. Further, this method has potentially wider application in contexts where searching for abrupt change or ';action' in any hyperspace is desired.

Development of a Solid-Oxide Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Hybrid System Model for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeh, Joshua E.; Pratt, Joseph W.; Brouwer, Jacob

2004-01-01

Recent interest in fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid applications for the aerospace industry has led to the need for accurate computer simulation models to aid in system design and performance evaluation. To meet this requirement, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and fuel processor models have been developed and incorporated into the Numerical Propulsion Systems Simulation (NPSS) software package. The SOFC and reformer models solve systems of equations governing steady-state performance using common theoretical and semi-empirical terms. An example hybrid configuration is presented that demonstrates the new capability as well as the interaction with pre-existing gas turbine and heat exchanger models. Finally, a comparison of calculated SOFC performance with experimental data is presented to demonstrate model validity. Keywords: Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, Reformer, System Model, Aerospace, Hybrid System, NPSS

Low-Dimensional Models for Physiological Systems: Nonlinear Coupling of Gas and Liquid Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staples, A. E.; Oran, E. S.; Boris, J. P.; Kailasanath, K.

2006-11-01

Current computational models of biological organisms focus on the details of a specific component of the organism. For example, very detailed models of the human heart, an aorta, a vein, or part of the respiratory or digestive system, are considered either independently from the rest of the body, or as interacting simply with other systems and components in the body. In actual biological organisms, these components and systems are strongly coupled and interact in complex, nonlinear ways leading to complicated global behavior. Here we describe a low-order computational model of two physiological systems, based loosely on a circulatory and respiratory system. Each system is represented as a one-dimensional fluid system with an interconnected series of mass sources, pumps, valves, and other network components, as appropriate, representing different physical organs and system components. Preliminary results from a first version of this model system are presented.

Analysis of typical fault-tolerant architectures using HARP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Bechta Dugan, Joanne; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Rothmann, Elizabeth M.; Smith, W. Earl

1987-01-01

Difficulties encountered in the modeling of fault-tolerant systems are discussed. The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) approach to modeling fault-tolerant systems is described. The HARP is written in FORTRAN, consists of nearly 30,000 lines of codes and comments, and is based on behavioral decomposition. Using the behavioral decomposition, the dependability model is divided into fault-occurrence/repair and fault/error-handling models; the characteristics and combining of these two models are examined. Examples in which the HARP is applied to the modeling of some typical fault-tolerant systems, including a local-area network, two fault-tolerant computer systems, and a flight control system, are presented.

A systems engineering approach to AIS accreditation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, L.M.; Hunteman, W.J.

1994-04-01

The systems engineering model provides the vehicle for communication between the developer and the customer by presenting system facts and demonstrating the system in an organized form. The same model provides implementors with views of the system`s function and capability. The authors contend that the process of obtaining accreditation for a classified Automated Information System (AIS) adheres to the typical systems engineering model. The accreditation process is modeled as a ``roadmap`` with the customer represented by the Designed Accrediting Authority. The ``roadmap`` model reduces the amount of accreditation knowledge required of an AIS developer and maximizes the effectiveness of participationmore » in the accreditation process by making the understanding of accreditation a natural consequence of applying the model. This paper identifies ten ``destinations`` on the ``road`` to accreditation. The significance of each ``destination`` is explained, as are the potential consequences of its exclusion. The ``roadmap,`` which has been applied to a range of information systems throughout the DOE community, establishes a paradigm for the certification and accreditation of classified AISs.« less

The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

PubMed

Joslyn, C

2001-01-01

We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

Integrated energy balance analysis for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tandler, John

1991-01-01

An integrated simulation model is described which characterizes the dynamic interaction of the energy transport subsystems of Space Station Freedom for given orbital conditions and for a given set of power and thermal loads. Subsystems included in the model are the Electric Power System (EPS), the Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS), the External Thermal Control System (ETCS), and the cabin Temperature and Humidity Control System (THC) (which includes the avionics air cooling, cabin air cooling, and intermodule ventilation systems). Models of the subsystems were developed in a number of system-specific modeling tools and validated. The subsystem models are then combined into integrated models to address a number of integrated performance issues involving the ability of the integrated energy transport system of Space Station Freedom to provide power, controlled cabin temperature and humidity, and equipment thermal control to support operations.

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

System Model The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model helps the U.S. Department of model. Visualize Future Capacity Expansion of Renewable Energy Watch this video of the ReEDS model audio. Model Documentation ReEDS Model Documentation: Version 2016 ReEDS Map with Numbered Regions

Applications of SPICE for modeling miniaturized biomedical sensor systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mundt, C. W.; Nagle, H. T.

2000-01-01

This paper proposes a model for a miniaturized signal conditioning system for biopotential and ion-selective electrode arrays. The system consists of three main components: sensors, interconnections, and signal conditioning chip. The model for this system is based on SPICE. Transmission-line based equivalent circuits are used to represent the sensors, lumped resistance-capacitance circuits describe the interconnections, and a model for the signal conditioning chip is extracted from its layout. A system for measurements of biopotentials and ionic activities can be miniaturized and optimized for cardiovascular applications based on the development of an integrated SPICE system model of its electrochemical, interconnection, and electronic components.

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. V.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1973-01-01

Problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars are reported. Problem areas include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. These tasks are summarized: vehicle model design, mathematical model of vehicle dynamics, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electrochemical controls, remote control, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, and chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

Toward a Model-Based Approach to Flight System Fault Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, John; Murray, Alex; Meakin, Peter

2012-01-01

Fault Protection (FP) is a distinct and separate systems engineering sub-discipline that is concerned with the off-nominal behavior of a system. Flight system fault protection is an important part of the overall flight system systems engineering effort, with its own products and processes. As with other aspects of systems engineering, the FP domain is highly amenable to expression and management in models. However, while there are standards and guidelines for performing FP related analyses, there are not standards or guidelines for formally relating the FP analyses to each other or to the system hardware and software design. As a result, the material generated for these analyses are effectively creating separate models that are only loosely-related to the system being designed. Development of approaches that enable modeling of FP concerns in the same model as the system hardware and software design enables establishment of formal relationships that has great potential for improving the efficiency, correctness, and verification of the implementation of flight system FP. This paper begins with an overview of the FP domain, and then continues with a presentation of a SysML/UML model of the FP domain and the particular analyses that it contains, by way of showing a potential model-based approach to flight system fault protection, and an exposition of the use of the FP models in FSW engineering. The analyses are small examples, inspired by current real-project examples of FP analyses.

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Advanced error diagnostics of the CMAQ and Chimere modelling systems within the AQMEII3 model evaluation framework

EPA Science Inventory

The work here complements the overview analysis of the modelling systems participating in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) by focusing on the performance for hourly surface ozone by two modelling systems, Chimere for Europe an...

A component modes projection and assembly model reduction methodology for articulated, multi-flexible body structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Allan Y.; Tsuha, Walter S.

1993-01-01

A two-stage model reduction methodology, combining the classical Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) method and the newly developed Enhanced Projection and Assembly (EP&A) method, is proposed in this research. The first stage of this methodology, called the COmponent Modes Projection and Assembly model REduction (COMPARE) method, involves the generation of CMS mode sets, such as the MacNeal-Rubin mode sets. These mode sets are then used to reduce the order of each component model in the Rayleigh-Ritz sense. The resultant component models are then combined to generate reduced-order system models at various system configurations. A composite mode set which retains important system modes at all system configurations is then selected from these reduced-order system models. In the second stage, the EP&A model reduction method is employed to reduce further the order of the system model generated in the first stage. The effectiveness of the COMPARE methodology has been successfully demonstrated on a high-order, finite-element model of the cruise-configured Galileo spacecraft.

Progressively consolidating historical visual explorations for new discoveries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kaiyu; Ward, Matthew O.; Rundensteiner, Elke A.; Higgins, Huong N.

2013-12-01

A significant task within data mining is to identify data models of interest. While facilitating the exploration tasks, most visualization systems do not make use of all the data models that are generated during the exploration. In this paper, we introduce a system that allows the user to gain insights from the data space progressively by forming data models and consolidating the generated models on the fly. Each model can be a a computationally extracted or user-defined subset that contains a certain degree of interest and might lead to some discoveries. When the user generates more and more data models, the degree of interest of some portion of some models will either grow (indicating higher occurrence) or will fluctuate or decrease (corresponding to lower occurrence). Our system maintains a collection of such models and accumulates the interestingness of each model into a consolidated model. In order to consolidate the models, the system summarizes the associations between the models in the collection and identifies support (models reinforce each other), complementary (models complement each other), and overlap of the models. The accumulated interestingness keeps track of historical exploration and helps the user summarize their findings which can lead to new discoveries. This mechanism for integrating results from multiple models can be applied to a wide range of decision support systems. We demonstrate our system in a case study involving the financial status of US companies.

Modeling of the Human - Operator in a Complex System Functioning Under Extreme Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzov, Peter; Hubenova, Zoia; Yordanov, Dimitar; Popov, Wiliam

2013-12-01

Problems, related to the explication of sophisticated control systems of objects, operating under extreme conditions, have been examined and the impact of the effectiveness of the operator's activity on the systems as a whole. The necessity of creation of complex simulation models, reflecting operator's activity, is discussed. Organizational and technical system of an unmanned aviation complex is described as a sophisticated ergatic system. Computer realization of main subsystems of algorithmic system of the man as a controlling system is implemented and specialized software for data processing and analysis is developed. An original computer model of a Man as a tracking system has been implemented. Model of unmanned complex for operators training and formation of a mental model in emergency situation, implemented in "matlab-simulink" environment, has been synthesized. As a unit of the control loop, the pilot (operator) is simplified viewed as an autocontrol system consisting of three main interconnected subsystems: sensitive organs (perception sensors); central nervous system; executive organs (muscles of the arms, legs, back). Theoretical-data model of prediction the level of operator's information load in ergatic systems is proposed. It allows the assessment and prediction of the effectiveness of a real working operator. Simulation model of operator's activity in takeoff based on the Petri nets has been synthesized.

A self-cognizant dynamic system approach for prognostics and health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Guangxing; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2015-03-01

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline that diagnoses and predicts how and when a system will degrade its performance and lose its partial or whole functionality. Due to the complexity and invisibility of rules and states of most dynamic systems, developing an effective approach to track evolving system states becomes a major challenge. This paper presents a new self-cognizant dynamic system (SCDS) approach that incorporates artificial intelligence into dynamic system modeling for PHM. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is selected to approximate a complex system response which is challenging task in general due to inaccessible system physics. The trained FFNN model is then embedded into a dual extended Kalman filter algorithm to track down system dynamics. A recursive computation technique used to update the FFNN model using online measurements is also derived. To validate the proposed SCDS approach, a battery dynamic system is considered as an experimental application. After modeling the battery system by a FFNN model and a state-space model, the state-of-charge (SoC) and state-of-health (SoH) are estimated by updating the FFNN model using the proposed approach. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach improves the efficiency and accuracy for battery health management.

Model reduction in mathematical pharmacology : Integration, reduction and linking of PBPK and systems biology models.

PubMed

Snowden, Thomas J; van der Graaf, Piet H; Tindall, Marcus J

2018-03-26

In this paper we present a framework for the reduction and linking of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models with models of systems biology to describe the effects of drug administration across multiple scales. To address the issue of model complexity, we propose the reduction of each type of model separately prior to being linked. We highlight the use of balanced truncation in reducing the linear components of PBPK models, whilst proper lumping is shown to be efficient in reducing typically nonlinear systems biology type models. The overall methodology is demonstrated via two example systems; a model of bacterial chemotactic signalling in Escherichia coli and a model of extracellular regulatory kinase activation mediated via the extracellular growth factor and nerve growth factor receptor pathways. Each system is tested under the simulated administration of three hypothetical compounds; a strong base, a weak base, and an acid, mirroring the parameterisation of pindolol, midazolam, and thiopental, respectively. Our method can produce up to an 80% decrease in simulation time, allowing substantial speed-up for computationally intensive applications including parameter fitting or agent based modelling. The approach provides a straightforward means to construct simplified Quantitative Systems Pharmacology models that still provide significant insight into the mechanisms of drug action. Such a framework can potentially bridge pre-clinical and clinical modelling - providing an intermediate level of model granularity between classical, empirical approaches and mechanistic systems describing the molecular scale.

Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Dixon

2004-04-26

The conceptual and predictive models documented in this Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment Model report describe the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions within the waste emplacement drifts of the repository. The modeling approaches and model output data will be used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA-LA) to assess the performance of the engineered barrier system and the waste form. These models evaluate the range of potential water compositions within the emplacement drifts, resulting from the interaction of introduced materials and minerals in dust with water seeping into the drifts and with aqueous solutions forming bymore » deliquescence of dust (as influenced by atmospheric conditions), and from thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) processes in the drift. These models also consider the uncertainty and variability in water chemistry inside the drift and the compositions of introduced materials within the drift. This report develops and documents a set of process- and abstraction-level models that constitute the engineered barrier system: physical and chemical environment model. Where possible, these models use information directly from other process model reports as input, which promotes integration among process models used for total system performance assessment. Specific tasks and activities of modeling the physical and chemical environment are included in the technical work plan ''Technical Work Plan for: In-Drift Geochemistry Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166519]). As described in the technical work plan, the development of this report is coordinated with the development of other engineered barrier system analysis model reports.« less

Human factors systems approach to healthcare quality and patient safety

PubMed Central

Carayon, Pascale; Wetterneck, Tosha B.; Rivera-Rodriguez, A. Joy; Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Hoonakker, Peter; Holden, Richard; Gurses, Ayse P.

2013-01-01

Human factors systems approaches are critical for improving healthcare quality and patient safety. The SEIPS (Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety) model of work system and patient safety is a human factors systems approach that has been successfully applied in healthcare research and practice. Several research and practical applications of the SEIPS model are described. Important implications of the SEIPS model for healthcare system and process redesign are highlighted. Principles for redesigning healthcare systems using the SEIPS model are described. Balancing the work system and encouraging the active and adaptive role of workers are key principles for improving healthcare quality and patient safety. PMID:23845724

Feasibility study of dish/stirling power systems in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zilanlı, Gülin Acarol; Eray, Aynur

2017-06-01

In this study, two different commercial dish/stirling systems, SES (Stirling Energy Systems) and WGA-ADDS (WGAssociates - Advanced Dish Development System), are modeled using the "System Advisor Model" (SAM) modeling software in designated settlement areas. Both systems are modeled for the US state of Albuquerque, where they were designed, and Turkish provinces of Ankara, Van, Muğla, Mersin, Urfa and Konya. At first, the dish/stirling system is optimized according to the power output values and the system loss parameters. Then, the layout of the solar field is designed with an installed capacity of 600kW both of SES and WGA-ADDS systems, Upon securing the most suitable layout, the system is modeled for the aforementioned settlements using the optimum output values gathered from the parametric analysis. As a result of the simulation studies, the applicability of this model is discussed according to the power output and the efficiency. Although Turkey is located in an area called "the sun belt" where solar energy technologies can be used, there is no advanced application of these systems. This study aims to discuss the application of these systems in detail and to pave the way for future studies in this field.

[The future of clinical laboratory database management system].

PubMed

Kambe, M; Imidy, D; Matsubara, A; Sugimoto, Y

1999-09-01

To assess the present status of the clinical laboratory database management system, the difference between the Clinical Laboratory Information System and Clinical Laboratory System was explained in this study. Although three kinds of database management systems (DBMS) were shown including the relational model, tree model and network model, the relational model was found to be the best DBMS for the clinical laboratory database based on our experience and developments of some clinical laboratory expert systems. As a future clinical laboratory database management system, the IC card system connected to an automatic chemical analyzer was proposed for personal health data management and a microscope/video system was proposed for dynamic data management of leukocytes or bacteria.

Presentation on systems cluster research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgenthaler, George W.

1989-01-01

This viewgraph presentation presents an overview of systems cluster research performed by the Center for Space Construction. The goals of the research are to develop concepts, insights, and models for space construction and to develop systems engineering/analysis curricula for training future aerospace engineers. The following topics are covered: CSC systems analysis/systems engineering (SIMCON) model, CSC systems cluster schedule, system life-cycle, model optimization techniques, publications, cooperative efforts, and sponsored research.

Computer-Aided Modeling and Analysis of Power Processing Systems (CAMAPPS). Phase 1: Users handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.; Lee, J.; Cho, B. H.; Lee, F. C.

1986-01-01

The EASY5 macro component models developed for the spacecraft power system simulation are described. A brief explanation about how to use the macro components with the EASY5 Standard Components to build a specific system is given through an example. The macro components are ordered according to the following functional group: converter power stage models, compensator models, current-feedback models, constant frequency control models, load models, solar array models, and shunt regulator models. Major equations, a circuit model, and a program listing are provided for each macro component.

Integrating systems biology models and biomedical ontologies

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Systems biology is an approach to biology that emphasizes the structure and dynamic behavior of biological systems and the interactions that occur within them. To succeed, systems biology crucially depends on the accessibility and integration of data across domains and levels of granularity. Biomedical ontologies were developed to facilitate such an integration of data and are often used to annotate biosimulation models in systems biology. Results We provide a framework to integrate representations of in silico systems biology with those of in vivo biology as described by biomedical ontologies and demonstrate this framework using the Systems Biology Markup Language. We developed the SBML Harvester software that automatically converts annotated SBML models into OWL and we apply our software to those biosimulation models that are contained in the BioModels Database. We utilize the resulting knowledge base for complex biological queries that can bridge levels of granularity, verify models based on the biological phenomenon they represent and provide a means to establish a basic qualitative layer on which to express the semantics of biosimulation models. Conclusions We establish an information flow between biomedical ontologies and biosimulation models and we demonstrate that the integration of annotated biosimulation models and biomedical ontologies enables the verification of models as well as expressive queries. Establishing a bi-directional information flow between systems biology and biomedical ontologies has the potential to enable large-scale analyses of biological systems that span levels of granularity from molecules to organisms. PMID:21835028

Biocellion: accelerating computer simulation of multicellular biological system models

PubMed Central

Kang, Seunghwa; Kahan, Simon; McDermott, Jason; Flann, Nicholas; Shmulevich, Ilya

2014-01-01

Motivation: Biological system behaviors are often the outcome of complex interactions among a large number of cells and their biotic and abiotic environment. Computational biologists attempt to understand, predict and manipulate biological system behavior through mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Discrete agent-based modeling (in combination with high-resolution grids to model the extracellular environment) is a popular approach for building biological system models. However, the computational complexity of this approach forces computational biologists to resort to coarser resolution approaches to simulate large biological systems. High-performance parallel computers have the potential to address the computing challenge, but writing efficient software for parallel computers is difficult and time-consuming. Results: We have developed Biocellion, a high-performance software framework, to solve this computing challenge using parallel computers. To support a wide range of multicellular biological system models, Biocellion asks users to provide their model specifics by filling the function body of pre-defined model routines. Using Biocellion, modelers without parallel computing expertise can efficiently exploit parallel computers with less effort than writing sequential programs from scratch. We simulate cell sorting, microbial patterning and a bacterial system in soil aggregate as case studies. Availability and implementation: Biocellion runs on x86 compatible systems with the 64 bit Linux operating system and is freely available for academic use. Visit http://biocellion.com for additional information. Contact: seunghwa.kang@pnnl.gov PMID:25064572

Impact of Three-Dimensional Printed Pelvicaliceal System Models on Residents' Understanding of Pelvicaliceal System Anatomy Before Percutaneous Nephrolithotripsy Surgery: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Atalay, Hasan Anıl; Ülker, Volkan; Alkan, İlter; Canat, Halil Lütfi; Özkuvancı, Ünsal; Altunrende, Fatih

2016-10-01

To investigate the impact of three-dimensional (3D) printed pelvicaliceal system models on residents' understanding of pelvicaliceal system anatomy before percutaneous nephrolithotripsy (PCNL). Patients with unilateral complex renal stones indicating PCNL were selected. Usable data of patients were obtained from CT-scans in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) format. Mimics software version 16.0 (Materialise, Belgium) was used for segmentation and extraction of pelvicaliceal systems (PCSs). All DICOM-formatted files were converted to the stereolithography file format. Finally, fused deposition modeling was used to create plasticine 3D models of PCSs. A questionnaire was designed so that residents could assess the 3D models' effects on their understanding of the anatomy of the pelvicaliceal system before PCNL (Fig. 3). Five patients' anatomically accurate models of the human renal collecting system were effectively generated (Figs. 1 and 2). After presentation of the 3D models, residents were 86% and 88% better at determining the number of anterior and posterior calices, respectively, 60% better at understanding stone location, and 64% better at determining optimal entry calix into the collecting system (Fig. 5). Generating kidney models of PCSs using 3D printing technology is feasible, and the models were accepted by residents as aids in surgical planning and understanding of pelvicaliceal system anatomy before PCNL.

Dynamic characteristic of electromechanical coupling effects in motor-gear system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Wenyu; Qin, Datong; Wang, Yawen; Lim, Teik C.

2018-06-01

Dynamic characteristics of an electromechanical model which combines a nonlinear permeance network model (PNM) of a squirrel-cage induction motor and a coupled lateral-torsional dynamic model of a planetary geared rotor system is analyzed in this study. The simulations reveal the effects of internal excitations or parameters like machine slotting, magnetic saturation, time-varying mesh stiffness and shaft stiffness on the system dynamics. The responses of the electromechanical system with PNM motor model are compared with those responses of the system with dynamic motor model. The electromechanical coupling due to the interactions between the motor and gear system are studied. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of the electromechanical system dynamic characteristics predicts an efficient way to detect work condition of unsymmetrical voltage sag.

Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez, Eduardo; Elliott, Katie; Snell, Steven; Evans, Michael

2013-01-01

The Integrated Main Propulsion System (MPS) Performance Reconstruction process provides the MPS post-flight data files needed for postflight reporting to the project integration management and key customers to verify flight performance. This process/model was used as the baseline for the currently ongoing Space Launch System (SLS) work. The process utilizes several methodologies, including multiple software programs, to model integrated propulsion system performance through space shuttle ascent. It is used to evaluate integrated propulsion systems, including propellant tanks, feed systems, rocket engine, and pressurization systems performance throughout ascent based on flight pressure and temperature data. The latest revision incorporates new methods based on main engine power balance model updates to model higher mixture ratio operation at lower engine power levels.

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1998-01-01

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

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Modeling and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

1986-01-01

This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

Representing natural and manmade drainage systems in an earth system modeling framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi

Drainage systems can be categorized into natural or geomorphological drainage systems, agricultural drainage systems and urban drainage systems. They interact closely among themselves and with climate and human society, particularly under extreme climate and hydrological events such as floods. This editorial articulates the need to holistically understand and model drainage systems in the context of climate change and human influence, and discusses the requirements and examples of feasible approaches to representing natural and manmade drainage systems in an earth system modeling framework.

Modeling the Earth System, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ojima, Dennis (Editor)

1992-01-01

The topics covered fall under the following headings: critical gaps in the Earth system conceptual framework; development needs for simplified models; and validating Earth system models and their subcomponents.

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

Information modeling system for blast furnace control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirin, N. A.; Gileva, L. Y.; Lavrov, V. V.

2016-09-01

Modern Iron & Steel Works as a rule are equipped with powerful distributed control systems (DCS) and databases. Implementation of DSC system solves the problem of storage, control, protection, entry, editing and retrieving of information as well as generation of required reporting data. The most advanced and promising approach is to use decision support information technologies based on a complex of mathematical models. The model decision support system for control of blast furnace smelting is designed and operated. The basis of the model system is a complex of mathematical models created using the principle of natural mathematical modeling. This principle provides for construction of mathematical models of two levels. The first level model is a basic state model which makes it possible to assess the vector of system parameters using field data and blast furnace operation results. It is also used to calculate the adjustment (adaptation) coefficients of the predictive block of the system. The second-level model is a predictive model designed to assess the design parameters of the blast furnace process when there are changes in melting conditions relative to its current state. Tasks for which software is developed are described. Characteristics of the main subsystems of the blast furnace process as an object of modeling and control - thermal state of the furnace, blast, gas dynamic and slag conditions of blast furnace smelting - are presented.

Portable Test And Monitoring System For Wind-Tunnel Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poupard, Charles A.

1987-01-01

Portable system developed to test and monitor instrumentation used in wind-tunnel models. Self-contained and moves easily to model, either before or after model installed in wind tunnel. System is 44 1/2 in. high, 22 in. wide, and 17 in. deep and weighs 100 lb. Primary benefits realized with portable test and monitoring system associated with saving of time.

ADAM: analysis of discrete models of biological systems using computer algebra.

PubMed

Hinkelmann, Franziska; Brandon, Madison; Guang, Bonny; McNeill, Rustin; Blekherman, Grigoriy; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

2011-07-20

Many biological systems are modeled qualitatively with discrete models, such as probabilistic Boolean networks, logical models, Petri nets, and agent-based models, to gain a better understanding of them. The computational complexity to analyze the complete dynamics of these models grows exponentially in the number of variables, which impedes working with complex models. There exist software tools to analyze discrete models, but they either lack the algorithmic functionality to analyze complex models deterministically or they are inaccessible to many users as they require understanding the underlying algorithm and implementation, do not have a graphical user interface, or are hard to install. Efficient analysis methods that are accessible to modelers and easy to use are needed. We propose a method for efficiently identifying attractors and introduce the web-based tool Analysis of Dynamic Algebraic Models (ADAM), which provides this and other analysis methods for discrete models. ADAM converts several discrete model types automatically into polynomial dynamical systems and analyzes their dynamics using tools from computer algebra. Specifically, we propose a method to identify attractors of a discrete model that is equivalent to solving a system of polynomial equations, a long-studied problem in computer algebra. Based on extensive experimentation with both discrete models arising in systems biology and randomly generated networks, we found that the algebraic algorithms presented in this manuscript are fast for systems with the structure maintained by most biological systems, namely sparseness and robustness. For a large set of published complex discrete models, ADAM identified the attractors in less than one second. Discrete modeling techniques are a useful tool for analyzing complex biological systems and there is a need in the biological community for accessible efficient analysis tools. ADAM provides analysis methods based on mathematical algorithms as a web-based tool for several different input formats, and it makes analysis of complex models accessible to a larger community, as it is platform independent as a web-service and does not require understanding of the underlying mathematics.

Mean Line Pump Flow Model in Rocket Engine System Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veres, Joseph P.; Lavelle, Thomas M.

2000-01-01

A mean line pump flow modeling method has been developed to provide a fast capability for modeling turbopumps of rocket engines. Based on this method, a mean line pump flow code PUMPA has been written that can predict the performance of pumps at off-design operating conditions, given the loss of the diffusion system at the design point. The pump code can model axial flow inducers, mixed-flow and centrifugal pumps. The code can model multistage pumps in series. The code features rapid input setup and computer run time, and is an effective analysis and conceptual design tool. The map generation capability of the code provides the map information needed for interfacing with a rocket engine system modeling code. The off-design and multistage modeling capabilities of the code permit parametric design space exploration of candidate pump configurations and provide pump performance data for engine system evaluation. The PUMPA code has been integrated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) code and an expander rocket engine system has been simulated. The mean line pump flow code runs as an integral part of the NPSS rocket engine system simulation and provides key pump performance information directly to the system model at all operating conditions.

An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conway, Sheila R.

2006-01-01

Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

Electrical Lumped Model Examination for Load Variation of Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Yoshiharu; Ito, Mitsuyo; Mizoshiri, Isao

Modeling and analysis of the circulation system enables the characteristic decision of circulation system in the body to be made. So, many models of circulation system have been proposed. But, they are complicated because the models include a lot of elements. Therefore, we proposed a complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit, which is comparatively simple. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of the complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit. We use normal, angina pectoris, dilated cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction for evaluation of the ventricular contraction function.

Getting a Cohesive Answer from a Common Start: Scalable Multidisciplinary Analysis through Transformation of a Systems Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Bjorn; Chung, Seung

2012-01-01

One of the challenges of systems engineering is in working multidisciplinary problems in a cohesive manner. When planning analysis of these problems, system engineers must trade between time and cost for analysis quality and quantity. The quality often correlates with greater run time in multidisciplinary models and the quantity is associated with the number of alternatives that can be analyzed. The trade-off is due to the resource intensive process of creating a cohesive multidisciplinary systems model and analysis. Furthermore, reuse or extension of the models used in one stage of a product life cycle for another is a major challenge. Recent developments have enabled a much less resource-intensive and more rigorous approach than hand-written translation scripts between multi-disciplinary models and their analyses. The key is to work from a core systems model defined in a MOF-based language such as SysML and in leveraging the emerging tool ecosystem, such as Query/View/Transformation (QVT), from the OMG community. SysML was designed to model multidisciplinary systems. The QVT standard was designed to transform SysML models into other models, including those leveraged by engineering analyses. The Europa Habitability Mission (EHM) team has begun to exploit these capabilities. In one case, a Matlab/Simulink model is generated on the fly from a system description for power analysis written in SysML. In a more general case, symbolic analysis (supported by Wolfram Mathematica) is coordinated by data objects transformed from the systems model, enabling extremely flexible and powerful design exploration and analytical investigations of expected system performance.

Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamic System Modeling Tool: Web Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Richard Edward; Cetiner, Sacit M.; Fugate, David L.

Previous reports focused on the development of component and system models as well as end-to-end system models using Modelica and Dymola for two advanced reactor architectures: (1) Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and (2) fluoride high-temperature reactor (FHR). The focus of this report is the release of the first beta version of the web-based application for model use and collaboration, as well as an update on the FHR model. The web-based application allows novice users to configure end-to-end system models from preconfigured choices to investigate the instrumentation and controls implications of these designs and allows for the collaborative development of individualmore » component models that can be benchmarked against test systems for potential inclusion in the model library. A description of this application is provided along with examples of its use and a listing and discussion of all the models that currently exist in the library.« less

Active imaging system performance model for target acquisition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinola, Richard L.; Teaney, Brian; Nguyen, Quang; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Halford, Carl E.; Tofsted, David H.

2007-04-01

The U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision & Electronic Sensors Directorate has developed a laser-range-gated imaging system performance model for the detection, recognition, and identification of vehicle targets. The model is based on the established US Army RDECOM CERDEC NVESD sensor performance models of the human system response through an imaging system. The Java-based model, called NVLRG, accounts for the effect of active illumination, atmospheric attenuation, and turbulence effects relevant to LRG imagers, such as speckle and scintillation, and for the critical sensor and display components. This model can be used to assess the performance of recently proposed active SWIR systems through various trade studies. This paper will describe the NVLRG model in detail, discuss the validation of recent model components, present initial trade study results, and outline plans to validate and calibrate the end-to-end model with field data through human perception testing.

Dispersion Modeling in Complex Urban Systems

EPA Science Inventory

Models are used to represent real systems in an understandable way. They take many forms. A conceptual model explains the way a system works. In environmental studies, for example, a conceptual model may delineate all the factors and parameters for determining how a particle move...

Similarity Metrics for Closed Loop Dynamic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whorton, Mark S.; Yang, Lee C.; Bedrossian, Naz; Hall, Robert A.

2008-01-01

To what extent and in what ways can two closed-loop dynamic systems be said to be "similar?" This question arises in a wide range of dynamic systems modeling and control system design applications. For example, bounds on error models are fundamental to the controller optimization with modern control design methods. Metrics such as the structured singular value are direct measures of the degree to which properties such as stability or performance are maintained in the presence of specified uncertainties or variations in the plant model. Similarly, controls-related areas such as system identification, model reduction, and experimental model validation employ measures of similarity between multiple realizations of a dynamic system. Each area has its tools and approaches, with each tool more or less suited for one application or the other. Similarity in the context of closed-loop model validation via flight test is subtly different from error measures in the typical controls oriented application. Whereas similarity in a robust control context relates to plant variation and the attendant affect on stability and performance, in this context similarity metrics are sought that assess the relevance of a dynamic system test for the purpose of validating the stability and performance of a "similar" dynamic system. Similarity in the context of system identification is much more relevant than are robust control analogies in that errors between one dynamic system (the test article) and another (the nominal "design" model) are sought for the purpose of bounding the validity of a model for control design and analysis. Yet system identification typically involves open-loop plant models which are independent of the control system (with the exception of limited developments in closed-loop system identification which is nonetheless focused on obtaining open-loop plant models from closed-loop data). Moreover the objectives of system identification are not the same as a flight test and hence system identification error metrics are not directly relevant. In applications such as launch vehicles where the open loop plant is unstable it is similarity of the closed-loop system dynamics of a flight test that are relevant.

Regenerative life support system research and concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Life support systems that involve recycling of atmospheres, water, food and waste are so complex that models incorporating all the interactions and relationships are vital to design, development, simulations, and ultimately to control of space qualified systems. During early modeling studies, FORTRAN and BASIC programs were used to obtain numerical comparisons of the performance of different regenerative concepts. Recently, models were made by combining existing capabilities with expert systems to establish an Intelligent Design Support Environment for simpliflying user interfaces and to address the need for the engineering aspects. Progress was also made toward modeling and evaluating the operational aspects of closed loop life support systems using Time-step and Dynamic simulations over a period of time. Example models are presented which show the status and potential of developed modeling techniques. For instance, closed loop systems involving algae systeMs for atmospheric purification and food supply augmentation, plus models employing high plants and solid waste electrolysis are described and results of initial evaluations are presented.

Integrated modeling for assessment of energy-water system resilience under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, E.; Veselka, T.; Zhou, Z.; Koritarov, V.; Mahalik, M.; Qiu, F.; Mahat, V.; Betrie, G.; Clark, C.

2016-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. The IWESAF currently includes an extreme climate event generator to predict future extreme weather events, hydrologic and reservoir models, riverine temperature model, power plant water use simulator, and power grid operation and cost optimization model. The IWESAF can facilitate the interaction among the modeling systems and provide insights of the sustainability and resilience of the energy-water system under extreme climate events and economic consequence. The regional case demonstration in the Midwest region will be presented. The detailed information on some of individual modeling components will also be presented in several other abstracts submitted to AGU this year.

Design tool for estimating chemical hydrogen storage system characteristics for light-duty fuel cell vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooks, Kriston P.; Sprik, Samuel J.; Tamburello, David A.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a vehicle framework model to simulate fuel cell-based light-duty vehicle operation for various hydrogen storage systems. This transient model simulates the performance of the storage system, fuel cell, and vehicle for comparison to DOE’s Technical Targets using four drive cycles/profiles. Chemical hydrogen storage models have been developed for the Framework model for both exothermic and endothermic materials. Despite the utility of such models, they require that material researchers input system design specifications that cannot be easily estimated. To address this challenge, a design tool has been developed that allows researchers to directlymore » enter kinetic and thermodynamic chemical hydrogen storage material properties into a simple sizing module that then estimates the systems parameters required to run the storage system model. Additionally, this design tool can be used as a standalone executable file to estimate the storage system mass and volume outside of the framework model and compare it to the DOE Technical Targets. These models will be explained and exercised with existing hydrogen storage materials.« less

Towards the use of Structural Loop Analysis to Study System Behaviour of Socio-Ecological Systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Joseph; Dyke, James

2016-04-01

Maintaining socio-ecological systems in desirable states is key to developing a growing economy, alleviating poverty and achieving a sustainable future. While the driving forces of an environmental system are often well known, the dynamics impacting these drivers can be hidden within a tangled structure of causal chains and feedback loops. A lack of understanding of a system's dynamic structure and its influence on a system's behaviour can cause unforeseen side-effects during model scenario testing and policy implementation. Structural Loop analysis of socio-ecological system models identifies dominant feedback structures during times of behavioural shift, allowing the user to monitor key influential drivers during model simulation. This work carries out Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis (LEEA) on three system dynamic models, exploring tipping points in lake systems undergoing eutrophication. The purpose is to explore the potential benefits and limitations of the technique in the field of socio-ecology. The LEEA technique shows promise for socio-ecological systems which undergo regime shifts or express oscillatory trends, but shows limited usefulness with large models. The results of this work highlight changes in feedback loop dominance, years prior to eutrophic tipping events in lake systems. LEEA could be used as an early warning signal to impending system changes, complementary to other known early warning signals. This approach could improve our understanding during critical times of a system's behaviour, changing how we approach model analysis and the way scenario testing and policy implementation are addressed in socio-ecological system models.

Generation of a modeling and simulation system for a semi-closed plant growth chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackwell, A. L.; Maa, S.; Kliss, M.; Blackwell, C. C.

1993-01-01

The fluid and thermal dynamics of the environment of plants in a small controlled-environment system have been modeled. The results of the simulation under two scenarios have been compared to measurements taken during tests on the actual system. The motivation for the modeling effort and the status of the modeling exercise and system scenario studies are described. An evaluation of the model and a discussion of future studies are included.

Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

PubMed

Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

2014-07-01

The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generation of animation sequences of three dimensional models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poi, Sharon (Inventor); Bell, Brad N. (Inventor)

1990-01-01

The invention is directed toward a method and apparatus for generating an animated sequence through the movement of three-dimensional graphical models. A plurality of pre-defined graphical models are stored and manipulated in response to interactive commands or by means of a pre-defined command file. The models may be combined as part of a hierarchical structure to represent physical systems without need to create a separate model which represents the combined system. System motion is simulated through the introduction of translation, rotation and scaling parameters upon a model within the system. The motion is then transmitted down through the system hierarchy of models in accordance with hierarchical definitions and joint movement limitations. The present invention also calls for a method of editing hierarchical structure in response to interactive commands or a command file such that a model may be included, deleted, copied or moved within multiple system model hierarchies. The present invention also calls for the definition of multiple viewpoints or cameras which may exist as part of a system hierarchy or as an independent camera. The simulated movement of the models and systems is graphically displayed on a monitor and a frame is recorded by means of a video controller. Multiple movement and hierarchy manipulations are then recorded as a sequence of frames which may be played back as an animation sequence on a video cassette recorder.

Symbolic LTL Compilation for Model Checking: Extended Abstract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozier, Kristin Y.; Vardi, Moshe Y.

2007-01-01

In Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checking, we check LTL formulas representing desired behaviors against a formal model of the system designed to exhibit these behaviors. To accomplish this task, the LTL formulas must be translated into automata [21]. We focus on LTL compilation by investigating LTL satisfiability checking via a reduction to model checking. Having shown that symbolic LTL compilation algorithms are superior to explicit automata construction algorithms for this task [16], we concentrate here on seeking a better symbolic algorithm.We present experimental data comparing algorithmic variations such as normal forms, encoding methods, and variable ordering and examine their effects on performance metrics including processing time and scalability. Safety critical systems, such as air traffic control, life support systems, hazardous environment controls, and automotive control systems, pervade our daily lives, yet testing and simulation alone cannot adequately verify their reliability [3]. Model checking is a promising approach to formal verification for safety critical systems which involves creating a formal mathematical model of the system and translating desired safety properties into a formal specification for this model. The complement of the specification is then checked against the system model. When the model does not satisfy the specification, model-checking tools accompany this negative answer with a counterexample, which points to an inconsistency between the system and the desired behaviors and aids debugging efforts.

Behavior of the gypsy moth life system model and development of synoptic model formulations

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert; Xu Rumei

1991-01-01

Aims of the research: The gypsy moth life system model (GMLSM) is a complex model which incorporates numerous components (both biotic and abiotic) and ecological processes. It is a detailed simulation model which has much biological reality. However, it has not yet been tested with life system data. For such complex models, evaluation and testing cannot be adequately...

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Model Experiments - ISOGAME

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Stephens, Philip; Iijima, Bryron A.

2013-01-01

Modeling and imaging the Earth's ionosphere as well as understanding its structures, inhomogeneities, and disturbances is a key part of NASA's Heliophysics Directorate science roadmap. This invention provides a design tool for scientific missions focused on the ionosphere. It is a scientifically important and technologically challenging task to assess the impact of a new observation system quantitatively on our capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. This question is often raised whenever a new satellite system is proposed, a new type of data is emerging, or a new modeling technique is developed. The proposed constellation would be part of a new observation system with more low-Earth orbiters tracking more radio occultation signals broadcast by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) than those offered by the current GPS and COSMIC observation system. A simulation system was developed to fulfill this task. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) including first-principles and empirical ionospheric models, a multiple- dipole geomagnetic field model, data assimilation modules, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software.

Modeling joint restoration strategies for interdependent infrastructure systems

PubMed Central

Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2018-01-01

Life in the modern world depends on multiple critical services provided by infrastructure systems which are interdependent at multiple levels. To effectively respond to infrastructure failures, this paper proposes a model for developing optimal joint restoration strategy for interdependent infrastructure systems following a disruptive event. First, models for (i) describing structure of interdependent infrastructure system and (ii) their interaction process, are presented. Both models are considering the failure types, infrastructure operating rules and interdependencies among systems. Second, an optimization model for determining an optimal joint restoration strategy at infrastructure component level by minimizing the economic loss from the infrastructure failures, is proposed. The utility of the model is illustrated using a case study of electric-water systems. Results show that a small number of failed infrastructure components can trigger high level failures in interdependent systems; the optimal joint restoration strategy varies with failure occurrence time. The proposed models can help decision makers to understand the mechanisms of infrastructure interactions and search for optimal joint restoration strategy, which can significantly enhance safety of infrastructure systems. PMID:29649300

Modeling the Earth system in the Mission to Planet Earth era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unninayar, Sushel; Bergman, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

A broad overview is made of global earth system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era for the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP). Time scales of global system fluctuation and change are described in Section 2. Section 3 provides a rubric for modeling the global earth system, as presently understood. The ability of models to predict the future state of the global earth system and the extent to which their predictions are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. The 'engineering' use of global system models (and predictions) is covered in Section 6. Section 7 covers aspects of an increasing need for improved transform algorithms and better methods to assimilate this information into global models. Future monitoring and data requirements are detailed in Section 8. Section 9 covers the NASA-initiated concept 'Mission to Planet Earth,' which employs space and ground based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. Section 10 concludes this review with general remarks concerning the state of global system modeling and observing technology and the need for future research.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

2013-12-01

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, directmore » and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.« less

Dynamic model including piping acoustics of a centrifugal compression system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Helvoirt, Jan; de Jager, Bram

2007-04-01

This paper deals with low-frequency pulsation phenomena in full-scale centrifugal compression systems associated with compressor surge. The Greitzer lumped parameter model is applied to describe the dynamic behavior of an industrial compressor test rig and experimental evidence is provided for the presence of acoustic pulsations in the compression system under study. It is argued that these acoustic phenomena are common for full-scale compression systems where pipe system dynamics have a significant influence on the overall system behavior. The main objective of this paper is to extend the basic compressor model in order to include the relevant pipe system dynamics. For this purpose a pipeline model is proposed, based on previous developments for fluid transmission lines. The connection of this model to the lumped parameter model is accomplished via the selection of appropriate boundary conditions. Validation results will be presented, showing a good agreement between simulation and measurement data. The results indicate that the damping of piping transients depends on the nominal, time-varying pressure and flow velocity. Therefore, model parameters are made dependent on the momentary pressure and a switching nonlinearity is introduced into the model to vary the acoustic damping as a function of flow velocity. These modifications have limited success and the results indicate that a more sophisticated model is required to fully describe all (nonlinear) acoustic effects. However, the very good qualitative results show that the model adequately combines compressor and pipe system dynamics. Therefore, the proposed model forms a step forward in the analysis and modeling of surge in full-scale centrifugal compression systems and opens the path for further developments in this field.

State Machine Modeling of the Space Launch System Solid Rocket Boosters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Joshua A.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

2013-01-01

The Space Launch System is a Shuttle-derived heavy-lift vehicle currently in development to serve as NASA's premiere launch vehicle for space exploration. The Space Launch System is a multistage rocket with two Solid Rocket Boosters and multiple payloads, including the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. Planned Space Launch System destinations include near-Earth asteroids, the Moon, Mars, and Lagrange points. The Space Launch System is a complex system with many subsystems, requiring considerable systems engineering and integration. To this end, state machine analysis offers a method to support engineering and operational e orts, identify and avert undesirable or potentially hazardous system states, and evaluate system requirements. Finite State Machines model a system as a finite number of states, with transitions between states controlled by state-based and event-based logic. State machines are a useful tool for understanding complex system behaviors and evaluating "what-if" scenarios. This work contributes to a state machine model of the Space Launch System developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The Space Launch System Solid Rocket Booster avionics and ignition subsystems are modeled using MATLAB/Stateflow software. This model is integrated into a larger model of Space Launch System avionics used for verification and validation of Space Launch System operating procedures and design requirements. This includes testing both nominal and o -nominal system states and command sequences.

An Interactive Program for the Calculation and Analysis of the Parameter Sensitivities in a Linear, Time-Invariant System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

tifiability is imposed; and the system designer now has a tool to evaluate how well the model describes the system . The algorithm is verified by checking its...xi I. Introduction In analyzing a system , the design engineer uses a mathematical model. The model, by its very definition, represents the system . It...number of G (See Eq (23).) can 18 give the designer a good indication of just how well the model defined by Eqs (1) through (3) describes the system

SAINT: A combined simulation language for modeling man-machine systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seifert, D. J.

1979-01-01

SAINT (Systems Analysis of Integrated Networks of Tasks) is a network modeling and simulation technique for design and analysis of complex man machine systems. SAINT provides the conceptual framework for representing systems that consist of discrete task elements, continuous state variables, and interactions between them. It also provides a mechanism for combining human performance models and dynamic system behaviors in a single modeling structure. The SAINT technique is described and applications of the SAINT are discussed.

Models and techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.

1978-01-01

The development of system models that can provide a basis for the formulation and evaluation of aircraft computer system effectiveness, the formulation of quantitative measures of system effectiveness, and the development of analytic and simulation techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed or existing aircraft computer are described. Specific topics covered include: system models; performability evaluation; capability and functional dependence; computation of trajectory set probabilities; and hierarchical modeling of an air transport mission.

Applying Model Based Systems Engineering to NASA's Space Communications Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhasin, Kul; Barnes, Patrick; Reinert, Jessica; Golden, Bert

2013-01-01

System engineering practices for complex systems and networks now require that requirement, architecture, and concept of operations product development teams, simultaneously harmonize their activities to provide timely, useful and cost-effective products. When dealing with complex systems of systems, traditional systems engineering methodology quickly falls short of achieving project objectives. This approach is encumbered by the use of a number of disparate hardware and software tools, spreadsheets and documents to grasp the concept of the network design and operation. In case of NASA's space communication networks, since the networks are geographically distributed, and so are its subject matter experts, the team is challenged to create a common language and tools to produce its products. Using Model Based Systems Engineering methods and tools allows for a unified representation of the system in a model that enables a highly related level of detail. To date, Program System Engineering (PSE) team has been able to model each network from their top-level operational activities and system functions down to the atomic level through relational modeling decomposition. These models allow for a better understanding of the relationships between NASA's stakeholders, internal organizations, and impacts to all related entities due to integration and sustainment of existing systems. Understanding the existing systems is essential to accurate and detailed study of integration options being considered. In this paper, we identify the challenges the PSE team faced in its quest to unify complex legacy space communications networks and their operational processes. We describe the initial approaches undertaken and the evolution toward model based system engineering applied to produce Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) PSE products. We will demonstrate the practice of Model Based System Engineering applied to integrating space communication networks and the summary of its results and impact. We will highlight the insights gained by applying the Model Based System Engineering and provide recommendations for its applications and improvements.

Vapor-dominated zones within hydrothermal systems: evolution and natural state

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Sorey, M.L.

1988-01-01

Three conceptual models illustrate the range of hydrothermal systems in which vapor-dominated conditions are found. The first model (model I) represents a system with an extensive near-vaporstatic vapor-dominated zone and limited liquid throughflow and is analogous to systems such as The Geysers, California. Models II and III represent systems with significant liquid throughflow and include steam-heated discharge features at higher elevations and high-chloride springs at lower elevations connected to and fed by a single circulation system at depth. In model II, as in model I, the vapor-dominated zone has a near-vaporstatic vertical pressure gradient and is generally underpressured with respect to local hydrostatic pressure. The vapor-dominated zone in model III is quite different, in that phase separation takes place at pressures close to local hydrostatic and the overall pressure gradient is near hydrostatic. -from Authors

Reliability model of a monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, J. S.

1971-01-01

A mathematical model and associated computer code has been developed which computes the reliability of a monopropellant blowdown hydrazine spacecraft auxiliary propulsion system as a function of time. The propulsion system is used to adjust or modify the spacecraft orbit over an extended period of time. The multiple orbit corrections are the multiple objectives which the auxiliary propulsion system is designed to achieve. Thus the reliability model computes the probability of successfully accomplishing each of the desired orbit corrections. To accomplish this, the reliability model interfaces with a computer code that models the performance of a blowdown (unregulated) monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system. The computer code acts as a performance model and as such gives an accurate time history of the system operating parameters. The basic timing and status information is passed on to and utilized by the reliability model which establishes the probability of successfully accomplishing the orbit corrections.

a Numerical Model for Flue Gas Desulfurization System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sung Joon

The purpose of this work is to develop a reliable numerical model for spray dryer desulfurization systems. The shape of the spray dryer requires that a body fitted orthogonal coordinate system be used for the numerical model. The governing equations are developed in the general orthogonal coordinates and discretized to yield a system of algebraic equations. A turbulence model is also included in the numerical program. A new second order numerical scheme is developed and included in the numerical model. The trajectory approach is used to simulate the flow of the dispersed phase. Two-way coupling phenomena is modeled by this scheme. The absorption of sulfur dioxide into lime slurry droplets is simulated by a model based on gas -phase mass transfer. The program is applied to a typical spray dryer desulfurization system. The results show the capability of the program to predict the sensitivity of system performance to changes in operational parameters.

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsueh, Mei-Chen

1987-01-01

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Optimization of life support systems and their systems reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, L. T.; Hwang, C. L.; Erickson, L. E.

1971-01-01

The identification, analysis, and optimization of life support systems and subsystems have been investigated. For each system or subsystem that has been considered, the procedure involves the establishment of a set of system equations (or mathematical model) based on theory and experimental evidences; the analysis and simulation of the model; the optimization of the operation, control, and reliability; analysis of sensitivity of the system based on the model; and, if possible, experimental verification of the theoretical and computational results. Research activities include: (1) modeling of air flow in a confined space; (2) review of several different gas-liquid contactors utilizing centrifugal force: (3) review of carbon dioxide reduction contactors in space vehicles and other enclosed structures: (4) application of modern optimal control theory to environmental control of confined spaces; (5) optimal control of class of nonlinear diffusional distributed parameter systems: (6) optimization of system reliability of life support systems and sub-systems: (7) modeling, simulation and optimal control of the human thermal system: and (8) analysis and optimization of the water-vapor eletrolysis cell.

An AD100 implementation of a real-time STOVL aircraft propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouzts, Peter J.; Drummond, Colin K.

1990-01-01

A real-time dynamic model of the propulsion system for a Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft was developed for the AD100 simulation environment. The dynamic model was adapted from a FORTRAN based simulation using the dynamic programming capabilities of the AD100 ADSIM simulation language. The dynamic model includes an aerothermal representation of a turbofan jet engine, actuator and sensor models, and a multivariable control system. The AD100 model was tested for agreement with the FORTRAN model and real-time execution performance. The propulsion system model was also linked to an airframe dynamic model to provide an overall STOVL aircraft simulation for the purposes of integrated flight and propulsion control studies. An evaluation of the AD100 system for use as an aircraft simulation environment is included.

Skin-electrode circuit model for use in optimizing energy transfer in volume conduction systems.

PubMed

Hackworth, Steven A; Sun, Mingui; Sclabassi, Robert J

2009-01-01

The X-Delta model for through-skin volume conduction systems is introduced and analyzed. This new model has advantages over our previous X model in that it explicitly represents current pathways in the skin. A vector network analyzer is used to take measurements on pig skin to obtain data for use in finding the model's impedance parameters. An optimization method for obtaining this more complex model's parameters is described. Results show the model to accurately represent the impedance behavior of the skin system with error of generally less than one percent. Uses for the model include optimizing energy transfer across the skin in a volume conduction system with appropriate current exposure constraints, and exploring non-linear behavior of the electrode-skin system at moderate voltages (below ten) and frequencies (kilohertz to megahertz).

ASSIST user manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Sally C.; Boerschlein, David P.

1995-01-01

Semi-Markov models can be used to analyze the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all the states and transitions in a complex system model can be devastatingly tedious and error prone. The Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool (ASSIST) computer program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of listing the individual model states, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system, and these are used to generate the model automatically. A few statements in the abstract language can describe a very large, complex model. Because no assumptions are made about the system being modeled, ASSIST can be used to generate models describing the behavior of any system. The ASSIST program and its input language are described and illustrated by examples.

Dynamic analysis of Space Shuttle/RMS configuration using continuum approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramakrishnan, Jayant; Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.

1994-01-01

The initial assembly of Space Station Freedom involves the Space Shuttle, its Remote Manipulation System (RMS) and the evolving Space Station Freedom. The dynamics of this coupled system involves both the structural and the control system dynamics of each of these components. The modeling and analysis of such an assembly is made even more formidable by kinematic and joint nonlinearities. The current practice of modeling such flexible structures is to use finite element modeling in which the mass and interior dynamics is ignored between thousands of nodes, for each major component. The model characteristics of only tens of modes are kept out of thousands which are calculated. The components are then connected by approximating the boundary conditions and inserting the control system dynamics. In this paper continuum models are used instead of finite element models because of the improved accuracy, reduced number of model parameters, the avoidance of model order reduction, and the ability to represent the structural and control system dynamics in the same system of equations. Dynamic analysis of linear versions of the model is performed and compared with finite element model results. Additionally, the transfer matrix to continuum modeling is presented.

Data flow modeling techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kavi, K. M.

1984-01-01

There have been a number of simulation packages developed for the purpose of designing, testing and validating computer systems, digital systems and software systems. Complex analytical tools based on Markov and semi-Markov processes have been designed to estimate the reliability and performance of simulated systems. Petri nets have received wide acceptance for modeling complex and highly parallel computers. In this research data flow models for computer systems are investigated. Data flow models can be used to simulate both software and hardware in a uniform manner. Data flow simulation techniques provide the computer systems designer with a CAD environment which enables highly parallel complex systems to be defined, evaluated at all levels and finally implemented in either hardware or software. Inherent in data flow concept is the hierarchical handling of complex systems. In this paper we will describe how data flow can be used to model computer system.

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, William B.; Trinh, Huu P.; Reynolds, Michael E.; Sharp, David J.

2011-01-01

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Modeling Motion System Feedback in the Enhanced Hess Structural Model of the Human Operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaychik, Kirill; Cardullo, Frank; George, Gary; Kelly, Lon C.

2009-01-01

In order to use the Hess Structural Model to predict the need for certain cueing systems, George and Cardullo significantly expanded it by adding motion feedback to the model and incorporating models of the motion system dynamics, motion cueing algorithm and a vestibular system. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate effectiveness of these innovations by performing a comparison analysis of the model performance with and without the expanded motion feedback. The proposed methodology is composed of two stages. The first stage involves fine-tuning parameters of the original Hess structural model in order to match the actual control behavior recorded during the experiments at NASA Visual Motion Simulator (VMS) facility. The parameter tuning procedure utilizes a new automated parameter identification technique, which was developed at the Man-Machine Systems Lab at SUNY Binghamton. In the second stage of the proposed methodology, an expanded motion feedback is added to the structural model. The resulting performance of the model is then compared to that of the original one. As proposed by Hess, metrics to evaluate the performance of the models include comparison against the crossover models standards imposed on the crossover frequency and phase margin of the overall man-machine system. Preliminary results indicate the advantage of having the model of the motion system and motion cueing incorporated into the model of the human operator. It is also demonstrated that the crossover frequency and the phase margin of the expanded model are well within the limits imposed by the crossover model.

A prototype computer-aided modelling tool for life-support system models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preisig, H. A.; Lee, Tae-Yeong; Little, Frank

1990-01-01

Based on the canonical decomposition of physical-chemical-biological systems, a prototype kernel has been developed to efficiently model alternative life-support systems. It supports (1) the work in an interdisciplinary group through an easy-to-use mostly graphical interface, (2) modularized object-oriented model representation, (3) reuse of models, (4) inheritance of structures from model object to model object, and (5) model data base. The kernel is implemented in Modula-II and presently operates on an IBM PC.

Automated method for the systematic interpretation of resonance peaks in spectrum data

DOEpatents

Damiano, Brian; Wood, Richard T.

1997-01-01

A method for spectral signature interpretation. The method includes the creation of a mathematical model of a system or process. A neural network training set is then developed based upon the mathematical model. The neural network training set is developed by using the mathematical model to generate measurable phenomena of the system or process based upon model input parameter that correspond to the physical condition of the system or process. The neural network training set is then used to adjust internal parameters of a neural network. The physical condition of an actual system or process represented by the mathematical model is then monitored by extracting spectral features from measured spectra of the actual process or system. The spectral features are then input into said neural network to determine the physical condition of the system or process represented by the mathematical. More specifically, the neural network correlates the spectral features (i.e. measurable phenomena) of the actual process or system with the corresponding model input parameters. The model input parameters relate to specific components of the system or process, and, consequently, correspond to the physical condition of the process or system.

Dynamic system simulation of small satellite projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raif, Matthias; Walter, Ulrich; Bouwmeester, Jasper

2010-11-01

A prerequisite to accomplish a system simulation is to have a system model holding all necessary project information in a centralized repository that can be accessed and edited by all parties involved. At the Institute of Astronautics of the Technische Universitaet Muenchen a modular approach for modeling and dynamic simulation of satellite systems has been developed called dynamic system simulation (DySyS). DySyS is based on the platform independent description language SysML to model a small satellite project with respect to the system composition and dynamic behavior. A library of specific building blocks and possible relations between these blocks have been developed. From this library a system model of the satellite of interest can be created. A mapping into a C++ simulation allows the creation of an executable system model with which simulations are performed to observe the dynamic behavior of the satellite. In this paper DySyS is used to model and simulate the dynamic behavior of small satellites, because small satellite projects can act as a precursor to demonstrate the feasibility of a system model since they are less complex compared to a large scale satellite project.

Verifying Multi-Agent Systems via Unbounded Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacprzak, M.; Lomuscio, A.; Lasica, T.; Penczek, W.; Szreter, M.

2004-01-01

We present an approach to the problem of verification of epistemic properties in multi-agent systems by means of symbolic model checking. In particular, it is shown how to extend the technique of unbounded model checking from a purely temporal setting to a temporal-epistemic one. In order to achieve this, we base our discussion on interpreted systems semantics, a popular semantics used in multi-agent systems literature. We give details of the technique and show how it can be applied to the well known train, gate and controller problem. Keywords: model checking, unbounded model checking, multi-agent systems

Modeling the C. elegans nematode and its environment using a particle system.

PubMed

Rönkkö, Mauno; Wong, Garry

2008-07-21

A particle system, as understood in computer science, is a novel technique for modeling living organisms in their environment. Such particle systems have traditionally been used for modeling the complex dynamics of fluids and gases. In the present study, a particle system was devised to model the movement and feeding behavior of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans in three different virtual environments: gel, liquid, and soil. The results demonstrate that distinct movements of the nematode can be attributed to its mechanical interactions with the virtual environment. These results also revealed emergent properties associated with modeling organisms within environment-based systems.

Remotely piloted vehicle: Application of the GRASP analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andre, W. L.; Morris, J. B.

1981-01-01

The application of General Reliability Analysis Simulation Program (GRASP) to the remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) system is discussed. The model simulates the field operation of the RPV system. By using individual component reliabilities, the overall reliability of the RPV system is determined. The results of the simulations are given in operational days. The model represented is only a basis from which more detailed work could progress. The RPV system in this model is based on preliminary specifications and estimated values. The use of GRASP from basic system definition, to model input, and to model verification is demonstrated.

Modeling the Delivery Physiology of Distributed Learning Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paquette, Gilbert; Rosca, Ioan

2003-01-01

Discusses instructional delivery models and their physiology in distributed learning systems. Highlights include building delivery models; types of delivery models, including distributed classroom, self-training on the Web, online training, communities of practice, and performance support systems; and actors (users) involved, including experts,…

Applying Modeling Tools to Ground System Procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Pasquale, Peter

2012-01-01

As part of a long-term effort to revitalize the Ground Systems (GS) Engineering Section practices, Systems Modeling Language (SysML) and Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) have been used to model existing GS products and the procedures GS engineers use to produce them.

Modular Architecture for Integrated Model-Based Decision Support.

PubMed

Gaebel, Jan; Schreiber, Erik; Oeser, Alexander; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

2018-01-01

Model-based decision support systems promise to be a valuable addition to oncological treatments and the implementation of personalized therapies. For the integration and sharing of decision models, the involved systems must be able to communicate with each other. In this paper, we propose a modularized architecture of dedicated systems for the integration of probabilistic decision models into existing hospital environments. These systems interconnect via web services and provide model sharing and processing capabilities for clinical information systems. Along the lines of IHE integration profiles from other disciplines and the meaningful reuse of routinely recorded patient data, our approach aims for the seamless integration of decision models into hospital infrastructure and the physicians' daily work.

Network simulation using the simulation language for alternate modeling (SLAM 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, S.; Morris, D. W.

1983-01-01

The simulation language for alternate modeling (SLAM 2) is a general purpose language that combines network, discrete event, and continuous modeling capabilities in a single language system. The efficacy of the system's network modeling is examined and discussed. Examples are given of the symbolism that is used, and an example problem and model are derived. The results are discussed in terms of the ease of programming, special features, and system limitations. The system offers many features which allow rapid model development and provides an informative standardized output. The system also has limitations which may cause undetected errors and misleading reports unless the user is aware of these programming characteristics.

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Brayton Power Conversion System Parametric Design Modelling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashe, Thomas L.; Otting, William D.

1993-01-01

The parametrically based closed Brayton cycle (CBC) computer design model was developed for inclusion into the NASA LeRC overall Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) end-to-end systems model. The code is intended to provide greater depth to the NEP system modeling which is required to more accurately predict the impact of specific technology on system performance. The CBC model is parametrically based to allow for conducting detailed optimization studies and to provide for easy integration into an overall optimizer driver routine. The power conversion model includes the modeling of the turbines, alternators, compressors, ducting, and heat exchangers (hot-side heat exchanger and recuperator). The code predicts performance to significant detail. The system characteristics determined include estimates of mass, efficiency, and the characteristic dimensions of the major power conversion system components. These characteristics are parametrically modeled as a function of input parameters such as the aerodynamic configuration (axial or radial), turbine inlet temperature, cycle temperature ratio, power level, lifetime, materials, and redundancy.

Diagnosing Students' Mental Models via the Web-Based Mental Models Diagnosis System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Tzu-Hua; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Lin, Jing-Wen; Chou, Chin-Cheng

2013-01-01

Mental models play an important role in science education research. To extend the effectiveness of conceptual change research and to improve mental model identi?cation and diagnosis, the authors developed and tested the Web-Based Mental Models Diagnosis (WMMD) system. In this article, they describe their WMMD system, which goes beyond the…

Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Laverne

1995-01-01

Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

A Community Framework for Integrative, Coupled Modeling of Human-Earth Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Tucker, G. E.; Lee, A.; Porter, C.; Ullah, I.; Hutton, E.; Hoogenboom, G.; Rogers, K. G.; Pritchard, C.

2017-12-01

We live today in a humanized world, where critical zone dynamics are driven by coupled human and biophysical processes. First generation modeling platforms have been invaluable in providing insight into dynamics of biophysical systems and social systems. But to understand today's humanized planet scientifically and to manage it sustainably, we need integrative modeling of this coupled human-Earth system. To address both scientific and policy questions, we also need modeling that can represent variable combinations of human-Earth system processes at multiple scales. Simply adding more code needed to do this to large, legacy first generation models is impractical, expensive, and will make them even more difficult to evaluate or understand. We need an approach to modeling that mirrors and benefits from the architecture of the complexly coupled systems we hope to model. Building on a series of international workshops over the past two years, we present a community framework to enable and support an ecosystem of diverse models as components that can be interconnected as needed to facilitate understanding of a range of complex human-earth systems interactions. Models are containerized in Docker to make them platform independent. A Basic Modeling Interface and Standard Names ontology (developed by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) is applied to make them interoperable. They are then transformed into RESTful micro-services to allow them to be connected and run in a browser environment. This enables a flexible, multi-scale modeling environment to help address diverse issues with combinations of smaller, focused, component models that are easier to understand and evaluate. We plan to develop, deploy, and maintain this framework for integrated, coupled modeling in an open-source collaborative development environment that can democratize access to advanced technology and benefit from diverse global participation in model development. We also present an initial proof-of-concept of this framework, coupling a widely used agricultural crop model (DSSAT) with a widely used hydrology model (TopoFlow).

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

The problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars were investigated. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; navigation, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks were studied: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement and transport parameter evaluation.

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

Investigation of problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars has been undertaken. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks have been under study: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of a dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer sybsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

Adaptive Neural Network Based Control of Noncanonical Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanjun; Tao, Gang; Chen, Mou

2016-09-01

This paper presents a new study on the adaptive neural network-based control of a class of noncanonical nonlinear systems with large parametric uncertainties. Unlike commonly studied canonical form nonlinear systems whose neural network approximation system models have explicit relative degree structures, which can directly be used to derive parameterized controllers for adaptation, noncanonical form nonlinear systems usually do not have explicit relative degrees, and thus their approximation system models are also in noncanonical forms. It is well-known that the adaptive control of noncanonical form nonlinear systems involves the parameterization of system dynamics. As demonstrated in this paper, it is also the case for noncanonical neural network approximation system models. Effective control of such systems is an open research problem, especially in the presence of uncertain parameters. This paper shows that it is necessary to reparameterize such neural network system models for adaptive control design, and that such reparameterization can be realized using a relative degree formulation, a concept yet to be studied for general neural network system models. This paper then derives the parameterized controllers that guarantee closed-loop stability and asymptotic output tracking for noncanonical form neural network system models. An illustrative example is presented with the simulation results to demonstrate the control design procedure, and to verify the effectiveness of such a new design method.

The UK Earth System Model project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

MASCARET: creating virtual learning environments from system modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Querrec, Ronan; Vallejo, Paola; Buche, Cédric

2013-03-01

The design process for a Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) such as that put forward in the SIFORAS project (SImulation FOR training and ASsistance) means that system specifications can be differentiated from pedagogical specifications. System specifications can also be obtained directly from the specialists' expertise; that is to say directly from Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) tools. To do this, the system model needs to be considered as a piece of VLE data. In this paper we present Mascaret, a meta-model which can be used to represent such system models. In order to ensure that the meta-model is capable of describing, representing and simulating such systems, MASCARET is based SysML1, a standard defined by Omg.

Concept for a Satellite-Based Advanced Air Traffic Management System : Volume 9. System and Subsystem Performance Models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-02-01

The volume presents the models used to analyze basic features of the system, establish feasibility of techniques, and evaluate system performance. The models use analytical expressions and computer simulations to represent the relationship between sy...

Minding the Cyber-Physical Gap: Model-Based Analysis and Mitigation of Systemic Perception-Induced Failure.

PubMed

Mordecai, Yaniv; Dori, Dov

2017-07-17

The cyber-physical gap (CPG) is the difference between the 'real' state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is inevitable at some degree in any cyber-physical system (CPS). Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME), a conceptual model-based approach to capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG. CPGAME enhances the systems engineer's ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions and actions. We demonstrate CPGAME by applying it for modeling and analysis of the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident, and show how its meltdown could be mitigated. We use ISO-19450:2015-Object Process Methodology as our conceptual modeling framework.

BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi

2018-01-01

Abstract BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. PMID:29106614

A systems thinking approach to analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Williams, John C

2015-01-01

The public health community is challenged with understanding the many complexities presented by systems thinking and its applications in systems modeling. The model presented encompasses multiple variables needed (eg, model building) for the construction of a conceptual system model of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The model tracks the ACA from inception, through passage, March 2010, to its current state. Justification for the need to reform the current health care system rests, in part, on the heels of social justice. Proponents of the ACA have long argued that health reform was needed by the millions of uninsured person who suffered from health disparities, took little advantage of health prevention advice, and faced issues of access to providers as well as insurers. In addition the ACA seeks to address our uncontrollable spending on health care delivery. This article highlights the ACA from a systems perspective. The conceptual model presented encompasses both health reform variables (eg, health care provisions, key legislative components, system environment) and system variables (eg, inputs, outputs, feedback, and throughput) needed to understand current health care reform efforts from a systems perspective. The model presented shows how the interrelationships and interconnections of elements of a system come together to achieve its purpose or goal.

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

PubMed

Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

2014-01-15

A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

Thermal Management Tools for Propulsion System Trade Studies and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCarthy, Kevin; Hodge, Ernie

2011-01-01

Energy-related subsystems in modern aircraft are more tightly coupled with less design margin. These subsystems include thermal management subsystems, vehicle electric power generation and distribution, aircraft engines, and flight control. Tighter coupling, lower design margins, and higher system complexity all make preliminary trade studies difficult. A suite of thermal management analysis tools has been developed to facilitate trade studies during preliminary design of air-vehicle propulsion systems. Simulink blocksets (from MathWorks) for developing quasi-steady-state and transient system models of aircraft thermal management systems and related energy systems have been developed. These blocksets extend the Simulink modeling environment in the thermal sciences and aircraft systems disciplines. The blocksets include blocks for modeling aircraft system heat loads, heat exchangers, pumps, reservoirs, fuel tanks, and other components at varying levels of model fidelity. The blocksets have been applied in a first-principles, physics-based modeling and simulation architecture for rapid prototyping of aircraft thermal management and related systems. They have been applied in representative modern aircraft thermal management system studies. The modeling and simulation architecture has also been used to conduct trade studies in a vehicle level model that incorporates coupling effects among the aircraft mission, engine cycle, fuel, and multi-phase heat-transfer materials.