A VAS-numerical model impact study using the Gal-Chen variational approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aune, Robert M.; Tuccillo, James J.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Petersen, Ralph A.

1987-01-01

A numerical study based on the use of a variational assimilation technique of Gal-Chen (1983, 1986) was conducted to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) into a regional-scale numerical model. A comparison with the results of a control forecast using only conventional data indicated that the assimilation technique successfully combines actual VAS temperature observations with the dynamically balanced model fields without destabilizing the model during the assimilation cycle. Moreover, increasing the temporal frequency of VAS temperature insertions during the assimilation cycle was shown to enhance the impact on the model forecast through successively longer forecast periods. The incorporation of a nudging technique, whereby the model temperature field is constrained toward the VAS 'updated' values during the assimilation cycle, further enhances the impact of the VAS temperature data.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Estimating Travel Time in Bank Filtration Systems from a Numerical Model Based on DTS Measurements.

PubMed

des Tombe, Bas F; Bakker, Mark; Schaars, Frans; van der Made, Kees-Jan

2018-03-01

An approach is presented to determine the seasonal variations in travel time in a bank filtration system using a passive heat tracer test. The temperature in the aquifer varies seasonally because of temperature variations of the infiltrating surface water and at the soil surface. Temperature was measured with distributed temperature sensing along fiber optic cables that were inserted vertically into the aquifer with direct push equipment. The approach was applied to a bank filtration system consisting of a sequence of alternating, elongated recharge basins and rows of recovery wells. A SEAWAT model was developed to simulate coupled flow and heat transport. The model of a two-dimensional vertical cross section is able to simulate the temperature of the water at the well and the measured vertical temperature profiles reasonably well. MODPATH was used to compute flowpaths and the travel time distribution. At the study site, temporal variation of the pumping discharge was the dominant factor influencing the travel time distribution. For an equivalent system with a constant pumping rate, variations in the travel time distribution are caused by variations in the temperature-dependent viscosity. As a result, travel times increase in the winter, when a larger fraction of the water travels through the warmer, lower part of the aquifer, and decrease in the summer, when the upper part of the aquifer is warmer. © 2017 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region.

PubMed

Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin

2017-05-01

The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.

Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin

2017-05-01

The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.

Resolving uncertainties in the urban air quality, climate, and vegetation nexus through citizen science, satellite imagery, and atmospheric modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ripplinger, J.; Koutzoukis, S.; Ge, C.; Castro Garcia, L.; Kucera, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties remain in identifying the distribution of urban air quality and temperature risks across neighborhood to regional scales. Nevertheless, many cities are actively expanding vegetation with an expectation to moderate both climate and air quality risks. We address these uncertainties through an integrated analysis of satellite data, atmospheric modeling, and in-situ environmental sensor networks maintained by citizen scientists. During the summer of 2017 we deployed neighborhood-scale networks of air temperature and ozone sensors through three campaigns across urbanized southern California. During each five-week campaign we deployed six sensor nodes that included an EPA federal equivalent method ozone sensor and a suite of meteorological sensors. Each node was further embedded in a network of 100 air temperature sensors that combined a randomized design developed by the research team and a design co-created by citizen scientists. Between 20 and 60 citizen scientists were recruited for each campaign, with local partners supporting outreach and training to ensure consistent deployment and data gathering. We observed substantial variation in both temperature and ozone concentrations at scales less than 4km, whole city, and the broader southern California region. At the whole city scale the average spatial variation with our ozone sensor network just for city of Long Beach was 26% of the mean, while corresponding variation in air temperature was only 7% of the mean. These findings contrast with atmospheric model estimates of variation at the regional scale of 11% and 1%. Our results show the magnitude of fine-scale variation underestimated by current models and may also suggest scaling functions that can connect neighborhood and regional variation in both ozone and temperature risks in southern California. By engaging citizen science with high quality sensors, satellite data, and real-time forecasting, our results help identify magnitudes of climate and air quality risk variation across scales and can guide individual decisions and urban policies surrounding vegetation to moderate these risks.

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Ice Sheet Surface Elevation at the Summit of Greenland: Observed and Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Jun, Li; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observed seasonal and interannual variations in the surface elevation over the summit of the Greenland ice sheet are modeled using a new temperature-dependent formulation of firn-densification and observed accumulation variations. The observed elevation variations are derived from ERS (European Remote Sensing)-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data for the period between April 1992 and April 1999. A multivariate linear/sine function is fitted to an elevation time series constructed from elevation differences measured by radar altimetry at orbital crossovers. The amplitude of the seasonal elevation cycle is 0.25 m peak-to-peak, with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Inter-annually, the elevation decreases to a minimum in 1995, followed by an increase to 1999, with an overall average increase of 4.2 cm a(exp -1) for 1992 to 1999. Our densification formulation uses an initial field-density profile, the AWS (automatic weather station) surface temperature record, and a temperature-dependent constitutive relation for the densification that is based on laboratory measurements of crystal growth rates. The rate constant and the activation energy commonly used in the Arrhenius-type constitutive relation for firn densification are also temperature dependent, giving a stronger temperature and seasonal amplitudes about 10 times greater than previous densification formulations. Summer temperatures are most important, because of the strong non-linear dependence on temperature. Much of firn densification and consequent surface lowering occurs within about three months of the summer season, followed by a surface build-up from snow accumulation until spring. Modeled interannual changes of the surface elevation, using the AWS measurements of surface temperature and accumulation and results of atmospheric modeling of precipitation variations, are in good agreement with the altimeter observations. In the model, the surface elevation decreases about 20 cm over the seven years due to more compaction driven by increasing summer temperatures. The minimum elevation in 1995 is driven mainly by a temporary accumulation decrease and secondarily by warmer temperatures. However, the overall elevation increase over the seven years is dominated by the accumulation increase in the later years.

Secular temperature trends for the southern Rocky Mountains over the last five centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkelhammer, M.; Stott, L. D.

2012-09-01

Pre-instrumental surface temperature variability in the Southwestern United States has traditionally been reconstructed using variations in the annual ring widths of high altitude trees that live near a growth-limiting isotherm. A number of studies have suggested that the response of some trees to temperature variations is non-stationary, warranting the development of alternative approaches towards reconstructing past regional temperature variability. Here we present a five-century temperature reconstruction for a high-altitude site in the Rocky Mountains derived from the oxygen isotopic composition of cellulose (δ18Oc) from Bristlecone Pine trees. The record is independent of the co-located growth-based reconstruction while providing the same temporal resolution and absolute age constraints. The empirical correlation between δ18Oc and instrumental temperatures is used to produce a temperature transfer function. A forward-model for cellulose isotope variations, driven by meteorological data and output from an isotope-enabled General Circulation Model, is used to evaluate the processes that propagate the temperature signal to the proxy. The cellulose record documents persistent multidecadal variations in δ18Oc that are attributable to temperature shifts on the order of 1°C but no sustained monotonic rise in temperature or a step-like increase since the late 19th century. The isotope-based temperature history is consistent with both regional wood density-based temperature estimates and some sparse early instrumental records.

Modeling of temperature-induced near-infrared and low-field time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance spectral variation: chemometric prediction of limonene and water content in spray-dried delivery systems.

PubMed

Andrade, Letícia; Farhat, Imad A; Aeberhardt, Kasia; Bro, Rasmus; Engelsen, Søren Balling

2009-02-01

The influence of temperature on near-infrared (NIR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy complicates the industrial applications of both spectroscopic methods. The focus of this study is to analyze and model the effect of temperature variation on NIR spectra and NMR relaxation data. Different multivariate methods were tested for constructing robust prediction models based on NIR and NMR data acquired at various temperatures. Data were acquired on model spray-dried limonene systems at five temperatures in the range from 20 degrees C to 60 degrees C and partial least squares (PLS) regression models were computed for limonene and water predictions. The predictive ability of the models computed on the NIR spectra (acquired at various temperatures) improved significantly when data were preprocessed using extended inverted signal correction (EISC). The average PLS regression prediction error was reduced to 0.2%, corresponding to 1.9% and 3.4% of the full range of limonene and water reference values, respectively. The removal of variation induced by temperature prior to calibration, by direct orthogonalization (DO), slightly enhanced the predictive ability of the models based on NMR data. Bilinear PLS models, with implicit inclusion of the temperature, enabled limonene and water predictions by NMR with an error of 0.3% (corresponding to 2.8% and 7.0% of the full range of limonene and water). For NMR, and in contrast to the NIR results, modeling the data using multi-way N-PLS improved the models' performance. N-PLS models, in which temperature was included as an extra variable, enabled more accurate prediction, especially for limonene (prediction error was reduced to 0.2%). Overall, this study proved that it is possible to develop models for limonene and water content prediction based on NIR and NMR data, independent of the measurement temperature.

Estimated effects of temperature on secondary organic aerosol concentrations.

PubMed

Sheehan, P E; Bowman, F M

2001-06-01

The temperature-dependence of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations is explored using an absorptive-partitioning model under a variety of simplified atmospheric conditions. Experimentally determined partitioning parameters for high yield aromatics are used. Variation of vapor pressures with temperature is assumed to be the main source of temperature effects. Known semivolatile products are used to define a modeling range of vaporization enthalpy of 10-25 kcal/mol-1. The effect of diurnal temperature variations on model predictions for various assumed vaporization enthalpies, precursor emission rates, and primary organic concentrations is explored. Results show that temperature is likely to have a significant influence on SOA partitioning and resulting SOA concentrations. A 10 degrees C decrease in temperature is estimated to increase SOA yields by 20-150%, depending on the assumed vaporization enthalpy. In model simulations, high daytime temperatures tend to reduce SOA concentrations by 16-24%, while cooler nighttime temperatures lead to a 22-34% increase, compared to constant temperature conditions. Results suggest that currently available constant temperature partitioning coefficients do not adequately represent atmospheric SOA partitioning behavior. Air quality models neglecting the temperature dependence of partitioning are expected to underpredict peak SOA concentrations as well as mistime their occurrence.

Dynamic Model and Control of a Photovoltaic Generation System using Energetic Macroscopic Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solano, Javier; Duarte, José; Vargas, Erwin; Cabrera, Jhon; Jácome, Andrés; Botero, Mónica; Rey, Juan

2016-10-01

This paper addresses the Energetic Macroscopic Representation EMR, the modelling and the control of photovoltaic panel PVP generation systems for simulation purposes. The model of the PVP considers the variations on irradiance and temperature. A maximum power point tracking MPPT algorithm is considered to control the power converter. A novel EMR is proposed to consider the dynamic model of the PVP with variations in the irradiance and the temperature. The EMR is evaluated through simulations of a PVP generation system.

Clustering of arc volcanoes caused by temperature perturbations in the back-arc mantle

PubMed Central

Lee, Changyeol; Wada, Ikuko

2017-01-01

Clustering of arc volcanoes in subduction zones indicates along-arc variation in the physical condition of the underlying mantle where majority of arc magmas are generated. The sub-arc mantle is brought in from the back-arc largely by slab-driven mantle wedge flow. Dynamic processes in the back-arc, such as small-scale mantle convection, are likely to cause lateral variations in the back-arc mantle temperature. Here we use a simple three-dimensional numerical model to quantify the effects of back-arc temperature perturbations on the mantle wedge flow pattern and sub-arc mantle temperature. Our model calculations show that relatively small temperature perturbations in the back-arc result in vigorous inflow of hotter mantle and subdued inflow of colder mantle beneath the arc due to the temperature dependence of the mantle viscosity. This causes a three-dimensional mantle flow pattern that amplifies the along-arc variations in the sub-arc mantle temperature, providing a simple mechanism for volcano clustering. PMID:28660880

Clustering of arc volcanoes caused by temperature perturbations in the back-arc mantle.

PubMed

Lee, Changyeol; Wada, Ikuko

2017-06-29

Clustering of arc volcanoes in subduction zones indicates along-arc variation in the physical condition of the underlying mantle where majority of arc magmas are generated. The sub-arc mantle is brought in from the back-arc largely by slab-driven mantle wedge flow. Dynamic processes in the back-arc, such as small-scale mantle convection, are likely to cause lateral variations in the back-arc mantle temperature. Here we use a simple three-dimensional numerical model to quantify the effects of back-arc temperature perturbations on the mantle wedge flow pattern and sub-arc mantle temperature. Our model calculations show that relatively small temperature perturbations in the back-arc result in vigorous inflow of hotter mantle and subdued inflow of colder mantle beneath the arc due to the temperature dependence of the mantle viscosity. This causes a three-dimensional mantle flow pattern that amplifies the along-arc variations in the sub-arc mantle temperature, providing a simple mechanism for volcano clustering.

Caribbean coral growth influenced by anthropogenic aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter M.; Economou, Theo; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Carilli, Jessica; Guzman, Hector M.

2013-05-01

Coral growth rates are highly dependent on environmental variables such as sea surface temperature and solar irradiance. Multi-decadal variability in coral growth rates has been documented throughout the Caribbean over the past 150-200 years, and linked to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, in turn, has been linked to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Here, we examine the drivers of changes in coral growth rates in the western Caribbean between 1880 and 2000, using previously published coral growth chronologies from two sites in the region, and a numerical model. Changes in coral growth rates over this period coincided with variations in sea surface temperature and incoming short-wave radiation. Our model simulations show that variations in the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols caused variations in sea surface temperature and incoming radiation in the second half of the twentieth century. Before this, variations in volcanic aerosols may have played a more important role. With the exception of extreme mass bleaching events, we suggest that neither climate change from greenhouse-gas emissions nor ocean acidification is necessarily the driver of multi-decadal variations in growth rates at some Caribbean locations. Rather, the cause may be regional climate change due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Microwave brightness temperature of a windblown sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, F. G.

1972-01-01

A mathematical model is developed for the apparent temperature of the sea at all microwave frequencies. The model is a numerical model in which both the clear water structure and white water are accounted for as a function of wind speed. The model produces results similar to Stogryn's model at 19.35 GHz for wind speeds less than 8 m/sec; it can use radiosonde data to calculate atmospheric effects and can incorporate an empirically determined antenna gain pattern. The corresponding computer program is of modular design and the logic of the main program is capable of treating a horizontally inhomogeneous surface or atmosphere. It is shown that a variation of microwave brightness temperature with zenith angle is necessary to produce the wind sensitivity of the horizontally polarized brightness temperature; the variation of sky temperature with frequency is sufficient to produce a frequency dependent wind sensitivity.

Variations in Temperature at the Base of the Lithosphere Beneath the Archean Superior Province, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mareschal, J.; Jaupart, C. P.

2013-12-01

Most of the variations in surface heat flux in stable continents are caused by variations in crustal heat production, with an almost uniform heat flux at the base of the crust ( 15+/-3 mW/m2). Such relatively small differences in Moho heat flux cannot be resolved by heat flow data alone, but they lead to important lateral variations in lithospheric temperatures and thicknesses. In order to better constrain temperatures in the lower lithosphere, we have combined surface heat flow and heat production data from the southern Superior Province in Canada with vertical shear wave velocity profiles obtained from surface wave inversion. We use the Monte-Carlo method to generate lithospheric temperature profiles from which shear wave velocity can be calculated for a given mantle composition. We eliminate thermal models which yield lithospheric and sub-lithospheric velocities that do not fit the shear wave velocity profile. Surface heat flux being constrained, the free parameters of the thermal model are: the mantle heat flux, the mantle heat production, the crustal differentiation index (ratio of surface to bulk crustal heat production) and the temperature of the mantle isentrope. Two conclusions emerge from this study. One is that, for some profiles, the vertical variations in shear wave velocities cannot be accounted for by temperature alone but also require compositional changes within the lithosphere. The second is that there are long wavelength horizontal variations in mantle temperatures (~80-100K) at the base of the lithosphere and in the mantle below

A simple temperature-based method to estimate heterogeneous frozen ground within a distributed watershed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Follum, Michael L.; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Parno, Julie T.; Downer, Charles W.

2018-05-01

Frozen ground can be important to flood production and is often heterogeneous within a watershed due to spatial variations in the available energy, insulation by snowpack and ground cover, and the thermal and moisture properties of the soil. The widely used continuous frozen ground index (CFGI) model is a degree-day approach and identifies frozen ground using a simple frost index, which varies mainly with elevation through an elevation-temperature relationship. Similarly, snow depth and its insulating effect are also estimated based on elevation. The objective of this paper is to develop a model for frozen ground that (1) captures the spatial variations of frozen ground within a watershed, (2) allows the frozen ground model to be incorporated into a variety of watershed models, and (3) allows application in data sparse environments. To do this, we modify the existing CFGI method within the gridded surface subsurface hydrologic analysis watershed model. Among the modifications, the snowpack and frost indices are simulated by replacing air temperature (a surrogate for the available energy) with a radiation-derived temperature that aims to better represent spatial variations in available energy. Ground cover is also included as an additional insulator of the soil. Furthermore, the modified Berggren equation, which accounts for soil thermal conductivity and soil moisture, is used to convert the frost index into frost depth. The modified CFGI model is tested by application at six test sites within the Sleepers River experimental watershed in Vermont. Compared to the CFGI model, the modified CFGI model more accurately captures the variations in frozen ground between the sites, inter-annual variations in frozen ground depths at a given site, and the occurrence of frozen ground.

Nonlinear-regression groundwater flow modeling of a deep regional aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Naff, Richard L.

1986-01-01

A nonlinear regression groundwater flow model, based on a Galerkin finite-element discretization, was used to analyze steady state two-dimensional groundwater flow in the areally extensive Madison aquifer in a 75,000 mi2 area of the Northern Great Plains. Regression parameters estimated include intrinsic permeabilities of the main aquifer and separate lineament zones, discharges from eight major springs surrounding the Black Hills, and specified heads on the model boundaries. Aquifer thickness and temperature variations were included as specified functions. The regression model was applied using sequential F testing so that the fewest number and simplest zonation of intrinsic permeabilities, combined with the simplest overall model, were evaluated initially; additional complexities (such as subdivisions of zones and variations in temperature and thickness) were added in stages to evaluate the subsequent degree of improvement in the model results. It was found that only the eight major springs, a single main aquifer intrinsic permeability, two separate lineament intrinsic permeabilities of much smaller values, and temperature variations are warranted by the observed data (hydraulic heads and prior information on some parameters) for inclusion in a model that attempts to explain significant controls on groundwater flow. Addition of thickness variations did not significantly improve model results; however, thickness variations were included in the final model because they are fairly well defined. Effects on the observed head distribution from other features, such as vertical leakage and regional variations in intrinsic permeability, apparently were overshadowed by measurement errors in the observed heads. Estimates of the parameters correspond well to estimates obtained from other independent sources.

Nonlinear-Regression Groundwater Flow Modeling of a Deep Regional Aquifer System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, Richard L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Naff, Richard L.

1986-12-01

A nonlinear regression groundwater flow model, based on a Galerkin finite-element discretization, was used to analyze steady state two-dimensional groundwater flow in the areally extensive Madison aquifer in a 75,000 mi2 area of the Northern Great Plains. Regression parameters estimated include intrinsic permeabilities of the main aquifer and separate lineament zones, discharges from eight major springs surrounding the Black Hills, and specified heads on the model boundaries. Aquifer thickness and temperature variations were included as specified functions. The regression model was applied using sequential F testing so that the fewest number and simplest zonation of intrinsic permeabilities, combined with the simplest overall model, were evaluated initially; additional complexities (such as subdivisions of zones and variations in temperature and thickness) were added in stages to evaluate the subsequent degree of improvement in the model results. It was found that only the eight major springs, a single main aquifer intrinsic permeability, two separate lineament intrinsic permeabilities of much smaller values, and temperature variations are warranted by the observed data (hydraulic heads and prior information on some parameters) for inclusion in a model that attempts to explain significant controls on groundwater flow. Addition of thickness variations did not significantly improve model results; however, thickness variations were included in the final model because they are fairly well defined. Effects on the observed head distribution from other features, such as vertical leakage and regional variations in intrinsic permeability, apparently were overshadowed by measurement errors in the observed heads. Estimates of the parameters correspond well to estimates obtained from other independent sources.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

PubMed

Vasseur, David A; DeLong, John P; Gilbert, Benjamin; Greig, Hamish S; Harley, Christopher D G; McCann, Kevin S; Savage, Van; Tunney, Tyler D; O'Connor, Mary I

2014-03-22

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming

PubMed Central

Vasseur, David A.; DeLong, John P.; Gilbert, Benjamin; Greig, Hamish S.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; McCann, Kevin S.; Savage, Van; Tunney, Tyler D.; O'Connor, Mary I.

2014-01-01

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance. PMID:24478296

Understanding Madden-Julian-Induced sea surface temperature variations in the North Western Australian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vialard, J.; Drushka, K.; Bellenger, H.; Lengaigne, M.; Pous, S.; Duvel, J. P.

2013-12-01

The strongest large-scale intraseasonal (30-110 day) sea surface temperature (SST) variations in austral summer in the tropics are found in the eastern Indian Ocean between Australia and Indonesia (North-Western Australian Basin, or NWAB). TMI and Argo observations indicate that the temperature signal (std. ~0.4 °C) is most prominent within the top 20 m. This temperature signal appears as a standing oscillation with a 40-50 day timescale within the NWAB, associated with ~40 Wm-2 net heat fluxes (primarily shortwave and latent) and ~0.02 Nm-2 wind stress perturbations. This signal is largely related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. A slab ocean model with climatological observed mixed-layer depth and an ocean general circulation model both accurately reproduce the observed intraseasonal SST oscillations in the NWAB. Both indicate that most of the intraseasonal SST variations in the NWAB in austral winter are related to surface heat flux forcing, and that intraseasonal SST variations are largest in austral summer because the mixed-layer is shallow (~20 m) and thus more responsive during that season. The general circulation model indicates that entrainment cooling plays little role in intraseasonal SST variations. The larger intraseasonal SST variations in the NWAB as compared to the widely-studied thermocline-ridge of the Indian Ocean region is explained by the larger convective and air-sea heat flux perturbations in the NWAB.

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

Effects of temperature variability on community structure in a natural microbial food web.

PubMed

Zander, Axel; Bersier, Louis-Félix; Gray, Sarah M

2017-01-01

Climate change research has demonstrated that changing temperatures will have an effect on community-level dynamics by altering species survival rates, shifting species distributions, and ultimately, creating mismatches in community interactions. However, most of this work has focused on increasing temperature, and still little is known about how the variation in temperature extremes will affect community dynamics. We used the model aquatic community held within the leaves of the carnivorous plant, Sarracenia purpurea, to test how food web dynamics will be affected by high temperature variation. We tested the community response of the first (bacterial density), second (protist diversity and composition), and third trophic level (predator mortality), and measured community respiration. We collected early and late successional stage inquiline communities from S. purpurea from two North American and two European sites with similar average July temperature. We then created a common garden experiment in which replicates of these communities underwent either high or normal daily temperature variation, with the average temperature equal among treatments. We found an impact of temperature variation on the first two, but not on the third trophic level. For bacteria in the high-variation treatment, density experienced an initial boost in growth but then decreased quickly through time. For protists in the high-variation treatment, alpha-diversity decreased faster than in the normal-variation treatment, beta-diversity increased only in the European sites, and protist community composition tended to diverge more in the late successional stage. The mortality of the predatory mosquito larvae was unaffected by temperature variation. Community respiration was lower in the high-variation treatment, indicating a lower ecosystem functioning. Our results highlight clear impacts of temperature variation. A more mechanistic understanding of the effects that temperature, and especially temperature variation, will have on community dynamics is still greatly needed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rainfall and temperature changes and variability in the Upper East Region of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issahaku, Abdul-Rahaman; Campion, Benjamin Betey; Edziyie, Regina

2016-08-01

The aim of the research was to assess the current trend and variation in rainfall and temperature in the Upper East Region, Ghana, using time series moving average analysis and decomposition methods. Meteorological data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency in Accra, Ghana, from 1954 to 2014 were used in the models. The additive decomposition model was used to analyze the rainfall because the seasonal variation was relatively constant over time, while the multiplicative model was used for both the daytime and nighttime temperatures because their seasonal variations increase over time. The monthly maximum and the minimum values for the entire period were as follows: rainfall 455.50 and 0.00 mm, nighttime temperature 29.10°C and 13.25°C and daytime temperature 41.10°C and 26.10°C, respectively. Also, while rainfall was decreasing, nighttime and daytime temperatures were increasing in decadal times. Since both the daytime and nighttime temperatures were increasing and rainfall was decreasing, climate extreme events such as droughts could result and affect agriculture in the region, which is predominantly rain fed. Also, rivers, dams, and dugouts are likely to dry up in the region. It was also observed that there was much variation in rainfall making prediction difficult. Day temperatures were generally high with the months of March and April have been the highest. The months of December recorded the lowest night temperature. Inhabitants are therefore advised to sleep in well-ventilated rooms during the warmest months and wear protective clothing during the cold months to avoid contracting climate-related diseases.

Intra-seasonal Oscillations Inferred from SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, F. T.; Mayr, H. G.; Russell, J.; Mlynczak, M.; Reber, C. A.; Mengel, J. G.

2006-01-01

In the zonal mean meridional winds of the upper mesosphere, intra-seasonal oscillations with periods between 1 and 4 months have been inferred from UARS measurements and independently predicted with the Numerical Spectral Model WSM). The wind oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and appear to be driven, at least in part, by small-scale gravity waves propagating in the meridional direction. Winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. Investigating this phenomenon, we have analyzed SABER temperatures from TIMED in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to delineate with an empirical model, the year-long variability of the migrating tides and zonal mean components. The inferred seasonal variations of the diurnal tide, characterized by amplitude maxima near equinox, are in substantial agreement with UARS observations and results from the NSM. For the zonal mean, the dominant seasonal variations in the SABER temperatures, with annual (12 months) and semiannual (6 months) periodicities, agree well with those derived from UARS measurements. The intra-seasonal variations with periods between 2 and 4 months have amplitudes close to 2 K, almost half as large as those for the dominant seasonal variations. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with the corresponding values inferred from UARS during different years. The SABER and UARS temperature variations reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, consistent with meridional wind oscillations across the equator. The phase of the semi-annual temperature oscillations from the NSM agrees with the observations from UARS and SABER. But the amplitudes are systematically smaller, which may indicate that planetary waves are more important than is allowed for in the model. For the shorter-period intra-seasonal variations, which can be generated by gravity wave drag, the model results are generally in better agreement with the observations.

Modeling patterns of coral bleaching at a remote Central Pacific atoll.

PubMed

Williams, Gareth J; Knapp, Ingrid S; Maragos, James E; Davy, Simon K

2010-09-01

A mild bleaching event (9.2% prevalence) at Palmyra Atoll occurred in response to the 2009 ENSO, when mean water temperature reached 29.8-30.1 degrees C. Prevalence among both abundant and sparse taxa varied with no clear pattern in susceptibility relating to coral morphology. Seven taxon-specific models showed that turbidity exacerbated while prior exposure to higher background temperatures alleviated bleaching, with these predictors explaining an average 16.3% and 11.5% variation in prevalence patterns, respectively. Positive associations occurred between bleaching prevalence and both immediate temperature during the bleaching event (average 8.4% variation explained) and increased sand cover (average 3.7%). Despite these associations, mean unexplained variation in prevalence equalled 59%. Lower bleaching prevalence in areas experiencing higher background temperatures suggests acclimation to temperature stress among several coral genera, while WWII modifications may still be impacting the reefs via shoreline sediment re-distribution and increased turbidity, exacerbating coral bleaching susceptibility during periods of high temperature stress. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 1: Development of the basic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.; Ochs, Harry T., III

1988-01-01

The variational method of undetermined multipliers is used to derive a multivariate model for objective analysis. The model is intended for the assimilation of 3-D fields of rawinsonde height, temperature and wind, and mean level temperature observed by satellite into a dynamically consistent data set. Relative measurement errors are taken into account. The dynamic equations are the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation. The model Euler-Lagrange equations are eleven linear and/or nonlinear partial differential and/or algebraic equations. A cyclical solution sequence is described. Other model features include a nonlinear terrain-following vertical coordinate that eliminates truncation error in the pressure gradient terms of the horizontal momentum equations and easily accommodates satellite observed mean layer temperatures in the middle and upper troposphere. A projection of the pressure gradient onto equivalent pressure surfaces removes most of the adverse impacts of the lower coordinate surface on the variational adjustment.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

IR temperatures of Mauna Loa caldera obtained with multispectral thermal imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergast, Malcolm M.; O'Steen, Byron L.; Kurzeja, Robert J.

2002-01-01

A survey of surface temperatures of the Mauna Loa caldera during 7/14/00 and 7/15/00 was made by SRTC in conjunction with a MTI satellite image collection. The general variation of surface temperature appears quite predictable responding to solar heating. The analysis of detailed times series of temperature indicates systematic variations in temperature of 5 C corresponding to time scales of 3-5 minutes and space scales of 10-20 m. The average temperature patterns are consistent with those predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS).

Contact line motion over substrates with spatially non-uniform properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaev, Vladimir; Gatapova, Elizaveta; Kabov, Oleg

2017-11-01

We develop mathematical models of moving contact lines over flat solid surfaces with spatial variation of temperature and wetting properties under the conditions when evaporation is significant. The gas phase is assumed to be pure vapor and a lubrication-type framework is employed for describing viscous flow in the liquid. Marangoni stresses at the liquid surface arise as a result of temperature variation in the vapor phase, non-equilibrium effects during evaporation at the interface, and Kelvin effect. The relative importance of these three factors is determined. Variation of wetting properties is modeled through a two-component disjoining pressure, with the main focus on spatially periodic patterns leading to time-periodic variation of the contact line speed.

Solar radiation and functional traits explain the decline of forest primary productivity along a tropical elevation gradient.

PubMed

Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Shenkin, Alexander; Asner, Gregory P; Atkin, Owen K; Díaz, Sandra; Enquist, Brian J; Farfan-Rios, William; Gloor, Emanuel; Guerrieri, Rossella; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Ishida, Yoko; Martin, Roberta E; Meir, Patrick; Phillips, Oliver; Salinas, Norma; Silman, Miles; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Malhi, Yadvinder

2017-06-01

One of the major challenges in ecology is to understand how ecosystems respond to changes in environmental conditions, and how taxonomic and functional diversity mediate these changes. In this study, we use a trait-spectra and individual-based model, to analyse variation in forest primary productivity along a 3.3 km elevation gradient in the Amazon-Andes. The model accurately predicted the magnitude and trends in forest productivity with elevation, with solar radiation and plant functional traits (leaf dry mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration, and wood density) collectively accounting for productivity variation. Remarkably, explicit representation of temperature variation with elevation was not required to achieve accurate predictions of forest productivity, as trait variation driven by species turnover appears to capture the effect of temperature. Our semi-mechanistic model suggests that spatial variation in traits can potentially be used to estimate spatial variation in productivity at the landscape scale. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A note on anomalous band-gap variations in semiconductors with temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, P. K.; Mondal, B. N.

2018-03-01

An attempt is made to theoretically study the band-gap variations (ΔEg) in semiconductors with temperature following the works, did by Fan and O'Donnell et al. based on thermodynamic functions. The semiconductor band-gap reflects the bonding energy. An increase in temperature changes the chemical bondings, and electrons are promoted from valence band to conduction band. In their analyses, they made several approximations with respect to temperature and other fitting parameters leading to real values of band-gap variations with linear temperature dependences. In the present communication, we have tried to re-analyse the works, specially did by Fan, and derived an analytical model for ΔEg(T). Because, it was based on the second-order perturbation technique of thermodynamic functions. Our analyses are made without any approximations with respect to temperatures and other fitting parameters mentioned in the text, leading to a complex functions followed by an oscillating nature of the variations of ΔEg. In support of the existence of the oscillating energy band-gap variations with temperature in a semiconductor, possible physical explanations are provided to justify the experimental observation for various materials.

Uncertainties in the temperature sensitivity of decomposition in tropical and subtropical ecosystems: Implications for models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Elisabeth A.; Neff, Jason C.; Townsend, Alan R.; McKeown, Becky

2000-12-01

Tropical ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle. Large changes in tropical temperature over geologic time and the significant responses of tropical ecosystems to shorter-term variations such as El Niño/La Niña argue for a robust understanding of the temperature sensitivity of tropical decomposition. To examine the responsiveness of heterotrophic respiration to temperature, we measured rates of heterotrophic respiration from a wide range of tropical soils in a series of laboratory incubations. Under conditions of optimal soil water and nonlimiting substrate availability, heterotrophic respiration rose exponentially with rising temperature. The meanQ10measured across all temperature ranges in these short-term incubations was 2.37, but there was significant variation inQ10s across sites. The source of this variation could not be explained by soil carbon or nitrogen content, soil texture, site climate, or lignin to nitrogen ratio. At the beginning of the incubation, heterotrophic respiration increased exponentially with temperature for all sites, despite the fact that the fluxes differed by an order of magnitude. When substrate availability became limiting later in the incubation, the temperature response changed, and heterotrophic response declined above 35°C. The documented changes in temperature sensitivity with substrate availability argue for using temperature relationships developed under optimal conditions of substrate availability for models which include temperature regulation of heterotrophic respiration. To evaluate the significance of this natural variation in temperature control over decomposition, we used the Century ecosystem model gridded for the areas between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. These simulations used the mean and upper and lower confidence limits of the normalized exponential temperature response of our experimental studies. We found that systems with the lowest temperature sensitivity accumulated a total of 70 Pg more carbon in soil organic carbon and respired 5.5 Pg yr-1 less carbon compared to the systems with the highest sensitivity.

Modeling temperature variations in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester.

PubMed

Valle-Guadarrama, Salvador; Espinosa-Solares, Teodoro; López-Cruz, Irineo L; Domaschko, Max

2011-05-01

A model that predicts temperature changes in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester was developed based on fundamental thermodynamic laws. The methodology utilized two simulation strategies. In the first, model equations were solved through a searching routine based on a minimal square optimization criterion, from which the overall heat transfer coefficient values, for both biodigester and heat exchanger, were determined. In the second, the simulation was performed with variable values of these overall coefficients. The prediction with both strategies allowed reproducing experimental data within 5% of the temperature span permitted in the equipment by the system control, which validated the model. The temperature variation was affected by the heterogeneity of the feeding and extraction processes, by the heterogeneity of the digestate recirculation through the heating system and by the lack of a perfect mixing inside the biodigester tank. The use of variable overall heat transfer coefficients improved the temperature change prediction and reduced the effect of a non-ideal performance of the pilot plant modeled.

Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David

The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of these processes in driving observed variations in dayside exospheric temperatures. Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) simulations and resulting exo-spheric temperatures will be presented and compared with assimilated temperatures collected from all these available measurements over the solar cycle. It is important to match measure-ments at dayside local times and latitudes for specific seasons with corresponding MTGCM simulated outputs. Calculated local heat budgets and their variations illustrate the changes required to reproduce solar cycle variations in exospheric temperatures. The ability to success-fully predict solar cycle responses of the Martian upper atmosphere is important for simulations of present-day Mars volatile escape rates.

Ion Temperature Control of the Io Plasma Torus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delamere, P. A.; Schneider, N. M.; Steffl, A. J.; Robbins, S. J.

2005-01-01

We report on observational and theoretical studies of ion temperature in the Io plasma torus. Ion temperature is a critical factor for two reasons. First, ions are a major supplier of energy to the torus electrons which power the intense EUV emissions. Second, ion temperature determines the vertical extent of plasma along field lines. Higher temperatures spread plasma out, lowers the density and slows reaction rates. The combined effects can play a controlling role in torus energetics and chemistry. An unexpected tool for the study of ion temperature is the longitudinal structure in the plasma torus which often manifests itself as periodic brightness variations. Opposite sides of the torus (especially magnetic longitudes 20 and 200 degrees) have been observed on numerous occasions to have dramatically different brightness, density, composition, ionization state, electron temperature and ion temperature. These asymmetries must ultimately be driven by different energy flows on the opposite sides, presenting an opportunity to observe key torus processes operating under different conditions. The most comprehensive dataset for the study of longitudinal variations was obtained by the Cassini UVIS instrument during its Jupiter flyby. Steffl (Ph.D. thesis, 2005) identified longitudinal variations in all the quantities listed above wit the exception of ion temperature. We extend his work by undertaking the first search for such variation in the UVIS dataset. We also report on a 'square centimeter' model of the torus which extend the traditional 'cubic centimeter' models by including the controlling effects of ion temperature more completely.

Ion temperature of low-latitude and mid-latitude topside ionosphere for high solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Lei; Zhang, Donghe; Hao, Yongqiang; Xiao, Zuo

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) describes the day and night latitudinal variation of ion temperature at 430 km with two functions using AEROS satellite measurements. The ion temperature at this height as one of the boundary parameters is used to make the ion temperature profile represented by a Booker-function. Since the low-latitude and mid-latitude topside ionospheric ion temperature has been measured with the Ionopsheric Plasma and Elec-trodynamics Instrument (IPEI) onboard Rocsat-1 satellite at about 600 km during the high solar activity years from 2000 to 2002, a new boundary at 600 km can be set for the ion temperature modeling. The latitudinal variation of ion temperature could be approximated by Epstein family of functions for different local time sectors. Furthermore, the longitudinal and seasonal variations are also taken into account to decide the fitting parameters. Only the magnetic quiet time data (Kp <3) are used for the statistical study. The results are compared with IRI-2007 model. In addition, events when Kp >4 are also analyzed to feature the ion temperature characteristic during the magnetic disturbance time condition. Combined with the IPEI field-aligned ion flow velocities and the plasma temperatures measured by the Special Sensors-Ions, Electrons, and Scintillation (SSIES) thermal plasma analysis package on board the DMSP F13 and F15 satellites, several feasible ion heating and heat loss mechanisms are summarized to interpret the ion temperature crests and toughs for different local time sectors, seasonal and longitudinal variations.

Percolation induced heat transfer in deep unsaturated zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, N.; LeCain, G.D.

2003-01-01

Subsurface temperature data from a borehole located in a desert wash were measured and used to delineate the conductive and advective heat transfer regimes, and to estimate the percolation quantity associated with the 1997-1998 El Ni??no precipitation. In an arid environment, conductive heat transfer dominates the variation of shallow subsurface temperature most of the time, except during sporadic precipitation periods. The subsurface time-varying temperature due to conductive heat transfer is highly correlated with the surface atmospheric temperature variation, whereas temperature variation due to advective heat transfer is strongly correlated with precipitation events. The advective heat transfer associated with precipitation and infiltration is the focus of this paper. Disruptions of the subsurface conductive temperature regime, associated with the 1997-1998 El Ni??no precipitation, were detected and used to quantify the percolation quantity. Modeling synthesis using a one-dimensional coupled heat and unsaturated flow model indicated that a percolation per unit area of 0.7 to 1.3 m height of water in two weeks during February 1998 was responsible for the observed temperature deviations down to a depth of 35.2 m. The reported study demonstrated quantitatively, for the first time, that the near surface temperature variation due to advective heat transfer can be significant at a depth greater than 10 m in unsaturated soils and can be used to infer the percolation amount in thick unsaturated soils.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

PubMed

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, T.-T.; Wang, H.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.; Ni, J.; Wang, G.

2015-09-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

A numerical study of zone-melting process for the thermoelectric material of Bi2Te3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W. C.; Wu, Y. C.; Hwang, W. S.; Hsieh, H. L.; Huang, J. Y.; Huang, T. K.

2015-06-01

In this study, a numerical model has been established by employing a commercial software; ProCAST, to simulate the variation/distribution of temperature and the subsequent microstructure of Bi2Te3 fabricated by zone-melting technique. Then an experiment is conducted to measure the temperature variation/distribution during the zone-melting process to validate the numerical system. Also, the effects of processing parameters on crystallization microstructure such as moving speed and temperature of heater are numerically evaluated. In the experiment, the Bi2Te3 powder are filled into a 30mm diameter quartz cylinder and the heater is set to 800°C with a moving speed 12.5 mm/hr. A thermocouple is inserted in the Bi2Te3 powder to measure the temperature variation/distribution of the zone-melting process. The temperature variation/distribution measured by experiment is compared to the results of numerical simulation. The results show that our model and the experiment are well matched. Then the model is used to evaluate the crystal formation for Bi2Te3 with a 30mm diameter process. It's found that when the moving speed is slower than 17.5 mm/hr, columnar crystal is obtained. In the end, we use this model to predict the crystal formation of zone-melting process for Bi2Te3 with a 45 mm diameter. The results show that it is difficult to grow columnar crystal when the diameter comes to 45mm.

Global thermal models of the lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

2017-12-01

Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations required by geophysical observations can be included.

The response of fabric variations to simple shear and migration recrystallization

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Pettit, Erin C.

2015-06-01

The observable microstructures in ice are the result of many dynamic and competing processes. These processes are influenced by climate variables in the firn. Layers deposited in different climate regimes may show variations in fabric which can persist deep into the ice sheet; fabric may 'remember' these past climate regimes. In this paper, we model the evolution of fabric variations below the firn–ice transition and show that the addition of shear to compressive-stress regimes preserves the modeled fabric variations longer than compression-only regimes, because shear drives a positive feedback between crystal rotation and deformation. Even without shear, the modeled icemore » retains memory of the fabric variation for ~200 ka in typical polar ice-sheet conditions. Our model shows that temperature affects how long the fabric variation is preserved, but only affects the strain-integrated fabric evolution profile when comparing results straddling the thermal-activation-energy threshold (~–10°C). Even at high temperatures, migration recrystallization does not eliminate the modeled fabric's memory under most conditions. High levels of nearest-neighbor interactions will, however, eliminate the modeled fabric's memory more quickly than low levels of nearest-neighbor interactions. Finally, our model predicts that fabrics will retain memory of past climatic variations when subject to a wide variety of conditions found in polar ice sheets.« less

Experimental validation of a 0-D numerical model for phase change thermal management systems in lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweitzer, Ben; Wilke, Stephen; Khateeb, Siddique; Al-Hallaj, Said

2015-08-01

A lumped (0-D) numerical model has been developed for simulating the thermal response of a lithium-ion battery pack with a phase-change composite (PCC™) thermal management system. A small 10s4p battery pack utilizing PCC material was constructed and subjected to discharge at various C-rates in order to validate the lumped model. The 18650 size Li-ion cells used in the pack were electrically characterized to determine their heat generation, and various PCC materials were thermally characterized to determine their apparent specific heat as a function of temperature. Additionally, a 2-D FEA thermal model was constructed to help understand the magnitude of spatial temperature variation in the pack, and to understand the limitations of the lumped model. Overall, good agreement is seen between experimentally measured pack temperatures and the 0-D model, and the 2-D FEA model predicts minimal spatial temperature variation for PCC-based packs at C-rates of 1C and below.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.

2018-02-01

The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth's climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth's orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical-polar temperature difference, ocean-land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean-atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280-3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean-land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical-polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean-land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical-polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 °C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation-albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the forcing parameters on key climatic model outputs, with additional spatial information from singular value decomposition providing insights into likely physical mechanisms. The results demonstrate the importance of orbital variation as an agent of change in climates of the past, and we demonstrate that emulators derived from our modelling output can be used as rapid and efficient surrogates of the full complexity model to provide estimates of climate conditions from any set of forcing parameters.

Simulation study of temperature-dependent diffusion behaviors of Ag/Ag(001) at low substrate temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Danyun; Mo, Yunjie; Feng, Xiaofang; He, Yingyou; Jiang, Shaoji

2017-06-01

In this study, a model based on the First Principles calculations and Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation were established to study the growth characteristic of Ag thin film at low substrate temperature. On the basis of the interaction between the adatom and nearest-neighbor atoms, some simplifications and assumptions were made to categorize the diffusion behaviors of Ag adatoms on Ag(001). Then the barriers of all possible diffusion behaviors were calculated using the Climbing Image Nudged Elastic Band method (CI-NEB). Based on the Arrhenius formula, the morphology variation, which is attributed to the surface diffusion behaviors during the growth, was simulated with a temperature-dependent KMC model. With this model, a non-monotonic relation between the surface roughness and the substrate temperature (decreasing from 300 K to 100 K) were discovered. The analysis of the temperature dependence on diffusion behaviors presents a theoretical explanation of diffusion mechanism for the non-monotonic variation of roughness at low substrate temperature.

A VAS-numerical model impact study using the Gal-Chen variational approach. [Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aune, Robert M.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Peterson, Ralph A.; Tuccillo, James J.

1987-01-01

Numerical experiments to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using the assimilation technique developed by Gal-Chen (1986) modified for use in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model were conducted. The scheme is designed to utilize the high temporal and horizontal resolution of satellite retrievals while maintaining the fine vertical structure generated by the model. This is accomplished by adjusting the model lapse rates to reflect thicknesses retrieved from VAS and applying a three-dimensional variational that preserves the distribution of the geopotential fields in the model. A nudging technique whereby the model temperature fields are gradually adjusted toward the updated temperature fields during model integration is also tested. An adiabatic version of MASS is used in all experiments to better isolate mass-momentum imbalances. The method has a sustained impact over an 18 hr model simulation.

Temperature sensitivity of soil microbial communities: An application of macromolecular rate theory to microbial respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alster, Charlotte J.; Koyama, Akihiro; Johnson, Nels G.; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; von Fischer, Joseph C.

2016-06-01

There is compelling evidence that microbial communities vary widely in their temperature sensitivity and may adapt to warming through time. To date, this sensitivity has been largely characterized using a range of models relying on versions of the Arrhenius equation, which predicts an exponential increase in reaction rate with temperature. However, there is growing evidence from laboratory and field studies that observe nonmonotonic responses of reaction rates to variation in temperature, indicating that Arrhenius is not an appropriate model for quantitatively characterizing temperature sensitivity. Recently, Hobbs et al. (2013) developed macromolecular rate theory (MMRT), which incorporates thermodynamic temperature optima as arising from heat capacity differences between isoenzymes. We applied MMRT to measurements of respiration from soils incubated at different temperatures. These soils were collected from three grassland sites across the U.S. Great Plains and reciprocally transplanted, allowing us to isolate the effects of microbial community type from edaphic factors. We found that microbial community type explained roughly 30% of the variation in the CO2 production rate from the labile C pool but that temperature and soil type were most important in explaining variation in labile and recalcitrant C pool size. For six out of the nine soil × inoculum combinations, MMRT was superior to Arrhenius. The MMRT analysis revealed that microbial communities have distinct heat capacity values and temperature sensitivities sometimes independent of soil type. These results challenge the current paradigm for modeling temperature sensitivity of soil C pools and understanding of microbial enzyme dynamics.

Calculation of TIR Canopy Hot Spot and Implications for Earth Radiation Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. A.; Ballard, J. R., Jr.

2000-01-01

Using a 3-D model for thermal infrared exitance and the Lowtran 7 atmospheric radiative transfer model, we compute the variation in brightness temperature with view direction and, in particular, the canopy thermal hot spot. We then perform a sensitivity analysis of surface energy balance components for a nominal case using a simple SVAT model given the uncertainty in canopy temperature arising from the thermal hot spot effect. Canopy thermal hot spot variations of two degrees C lead to differences of plus or minus 24% in the midday available energy.

Identification method of laser gyro error model under changing physical field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingqing; Niu, Zhenzhong

2018-04-01

In this paper, the influence mechanism of temperature, temperature changing rate and temperature gradient on the inertial devices is studied. The two-order model of zero bias and the three-order model of the calibration factor of lster gyro under temperature variation are deduced. The calibration scheme of temperature error is designed, and the experiment is carried out. Two methods of stepwise regression analysis and BP neural network are used to identify the parameters of the temperature error model, and the effectiveness of the two methods is proved by the temperature error compensation.

Periodic variations in stratospheric-mesospheric temperature from 20-65 km at 80 N to 30 S

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nastrom, G. D.; Belmont, A. D.

1975-01-01

Results on large-scale periodic variations of the stratospheric-mesospheric temperature field based on Meteorological Rocket Network (MRN) measurements are reported for a long-term (12-year) mean, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the first three harmonics of the annual wave (annual wave, semi-annual wave, and terannual wave or 4-month variation). Station-to-station comparisons are tabulated and charted for amplitude and phase of periodic variations in the temperature field. Masking and biasing factors, such as diurnal tides, solar radiation variations, mean monthly variations, instrument lag, aerodynamic heating, are singled out for attention. Models of the stratosphere will have to account for these oscillations of different periods in the thermal field and related properties of the wind fields, with multilayered horizontal stratification with height taken into account.-

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Effect of injection current and temperature on signal strength in a laser diode optical feedback interferometer.

PubMed

Al Roumy, Jalal; Perchoux, Julien; Lim, Yah Leng; Taimre, Thomas; Rakić, Aleksandar D; Bosch, Thierry

2015-01-10

We present a simple analytical model that describes the injection current and temperature dependence of optical feedback interferometry signal strength for a single-mode laser diode. The model is derived from the Lang and Kobayashi rate equations, and is developed both for signals acquired from the monitoring photodiode (proportional to the variations in optical power) and for those obtained by amplification of the corresponding variations in laser voltage. The model shows that both the photodiode and the voltage signal strengths are dependent on the laser slope efficiency, which itself is a function of the injection current and the temperature. Moreover, the model predicts that the photodiode and voltage signal strengths depend differently on injection current and temperature. This important model prediction was proven experimentally for a near-infrared distributed feedback laser by measuring both types of signals over a wide range of injection currents and temperatures. Therefore, this simple model provides important insight into the radically different biasing strategies required to achieve optimal sensor sensitivity for both interferometric signal acquisition schemes.

Analytical model for thermal lensing and spherical aberration in diode side-pumped Nd:YAG laser rod having Gaussian pump profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

M, H. Moghtader Dindarlu; M Kavosh, Tehrani; H, Saghafifar; A, Maleki

2015-12-01

In this paper, according to the temperature and strain distribution obtained by considering the Gaussian pump profile and dependence of physical properties on temperature, we derive an analytical model for refractive index variations of the diode side-pumped Nd:YAG laser rod. Then we evaluate this model by numerical solution and our maximum relative errors are 5% and 10% for variations caused by thermo-optical and thermo-mechanical effects; respectively. Finally, we present an analytical model for calculating the focal length of the thermal lens and spherical aberration. This model is evaluated by experimental results.

The impact of seasonality on niche breadth, distribution range and species richness: a theoretical exploration of Janzen's hypothesis.

PubMed

Hua, Xia

2016-07-27

Being invoked as one of the candidate mechanisms for the latitudinal patterns in biodiversity, Janzen's hypothesis states that the limited seasonal temperature variation in the tropics generates greater temperature stratification across elevations, which makes tropical species adapted to narrower ranges of temperatures and have lower effective dispersal across elevations than species in temperate regions. Numerous empirical studies have documented latitudinal patterns in species elevational ranges and thermal niche breadths that are consistent with the hypothesis, but the theoretical underpinnings remain unclear. This study presents the first mathematical model to examine the evolutionary processes that could back up Janzen's hypothesis and assess the effectiveness of limited seasonal temperature variation to promote speciation along elevation in the tropics. Results suggest that trade-offs in thermal tolerances provide a mechanism for Janzen's hypothesis. Limited seasonal temperature variation promotes gradient speciation not due to the reduction in gene flow that is associated with narrow thermal niche, but due to the pleiotropic effects of more stable divergent selection of thermal tolerance on the evolution of reproductive incompatibility. The proposed modelling approach also provides a potential way to test a speciation model against genetic data. © 2016 The Author(s).

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann V. Rowan; Simon H. Brocklehurst; David M. Schultz

2014-05-01

Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length ofmore » the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1?km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3?km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (-14% and -18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty.« less

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following dam releases. Direct coupling may have occurred between streamflow and stream temperature for losing stream reaches, such that reduced streamflows facilitated increased afternoon stream temperatures and increased afternoon stream temperatures induced increased streambed losses, leading to even greater increases in both stream temperature and streamflow losses.

Chapter 6: Temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Hauer, F. Richard; F. Richard Hauer,; Lamberti, G.A.

2017-01-01

Stream temperature has direct and indirect effects on stream ecology and is critical in determining both abiotic and biotic system responses across a hierarchy of spatial and temporal scales. Temperature variation is primarily driven by solar radiation, while landscape topography, geology, and stream reach scale ecosystem processes contribute to local variability. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in freshwater ecosystems influences habitat distributions, physiological functions, and phenology of all aquatic organisms. In this chapter we provide an overview of methods for monitoring stream temperature, characterization of thermal profiles, and modeling approaches to stream temperature prediction. Recent advances in temperature monitoring allow for more comprehensive studies of the underlying processes influencing annual variation of temperatures and how thermal variability may impact aquatic organisms at individual, population, and community based scales. Likewise, the development of spatially explicit predictive models provide a framework for simulating natural and anthropogenic effects on thermal regimes which is integral for sustainable management of freshwater systems.

How important is interannual variability in the climatic interpretation of moraine sequences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers respond to both long-term climate and interannual forcing. Anderson et al. (2014) pointed out that kilometer-scale fluctuations in glacier length may result from interannual variability in temperature and precipitation given a "steady" climate with no long-term trends in mean or variability of temperature and precipitation. They cautioned that use of outermost moraines from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as indicators of LGM climate will, because of the role of interannual forcing, result in overestimation of the magnitude of long-term temperature depression and/or precipitation enhancement. Here we assess the implications of these ideas, by examining the effect of interannual variability on glacier length and inferred magnitude of LGM climate change from present under both an assumed steady LGM climate and an LGM climate with low-magnitude, long-period variation in summer temperature and annual precipitation. We employ both the original 1-stage linear glacier model (Roe and O'Neal, 2009) used by Anderson et al. (2014) and a newer 3-stage linear model (Roe and Baker, 2014). We apply the models to two reconstructed LGM glaciers in the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Three-stage-model results indicate that, absent long-term variations through a 7500-year-long LGM, interannual variability would result in overestimation of mean LGM temperature depression from the outermost moraine of 0.2-0.6°C. If small long-term cyclic variations of temperature (±0.5°C) and precipitation (±5%) are introduced, the overestimation of LGM temperature depression reduces to less than 0.4°C, and if slightly greater long-term variation (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) is introduced, the magnitude of overestimation is 0.3°C or less. Interannual variability may produce a moraine sequence that differs from the sequence that would be expected were glacier length forced only by long-term climate. With small amplitude (±0.5°C and ±5% precipitation) long-term variation, the moraine sequence expected if forced by a combination of interannual variability and long-term climate differs from that expected based on long-term climate forcing alone in 38% of model runs. With the larger amplitude long-term forcing (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) this difference occurs in 20% of model runs.

Cryptic impacts of temperature variability on amphibian immune function.

PubMed

Terrell, Kimberly A; Quintero, Richard P; Murray, Suzan; Kleopfer, John D; Murphy, James B; Evans, Matthew J; Nissen, Bradley D; Gratwicke, Brian

2013-11-15

Ectothermic species living in temperate regions can experience rapid and potentially stressful changes in body temperature driven by abrupt weather changes. Yet, among amphibians, the physiological impacts of short-term temperature variation are largely unknown. Using an ex situ population of Cryptobranchus alleganiensis, an aquatic North American salamander, we tested the hypothesis that naturally occurring periods of temperature variation negatively impact amphibian health, either through direct effects on immune function or by increasing physiological stress. We exposed captive salamanders to repeated cycles of temperature fluctuations recorded in the population's natal stream and evaluated behavioral and physiological responses, including plasma complement activity (i.e. bacteria killing) against Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Aeromonas hydrophila. The best-fit model (ΔAICc=0, wi=0.9992) revealed 70% greater P. aeruginosa killing after exposure to variable temperatures and no evidence of thermal acclimation. The same model predicted 50% increased E. coli killing, but had weaker support (ΔAICc=1.8, wi=0.2882). In contrast, plasma defenses were ineffective against A. hydrophila, and other health indicators (leukocyte ratios, growth rates and behavioral patterns) were maintained at baseline values. Our data suggest that amphibians can tolerate, and even benefit from, natural patterns of rapid warming/cooling. Specifically, temperature variation can elicit increased activity of the innate immune system. This immune response may be adaptive in an unpredictable environment, and is undetectable by conventional health indicators (and hence considered cryptic). Our findings highlight the need to consider naturalistic patterns of temperature variation when predicting species' susceptibility to climate change.

A first-principles model for orificed hollow cathode operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salhi, A.; Turchi, P. J.

1992-01-01

A theoretical model describing orificed hollow cathode discharge is presented. The approach adopted is based on a purely analytical formulation founded on first principles. The present model predicts the emission surface temperature and plasma properties such as electron temperature, number densities and plasma potential. In general, good agreements between theory and experiment are obtained. Comparison of the results with the available related experimental data shows a maximum difference of 10 percent in emission surface temperature, 20 percent in electron temperature and 35 percent in plasma potential. In case of the variation of the electron number density with the discharge current a maximum discrepancy of 36 percent is obtained. However, in the case of the variation with the cathode internal pressure, the predicted electron number density is higher than the experimental data by a maximum factor of 2.

Monte Carlo Models to Constrain Temperature Variation in the Lowermost Mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowacki, A.; Walker, A.; Davies, C. J.

2017-12-01

The three dimensional temperature variation in the lowermost mantle is diagnostic of the pattern of mantle convection and controls the extraction of heat from the outer core. Direct measurement of mantle temperature is impossible and the temperature in the lowermost mantle is poorly constrained. However, since temperature variations indirectly impact many geophysical observables, it is possible to isolate the thermal signal if mantle composition and the physical properties of mantle minerals are known. Here we describe a scheme that allows seismic, geodynamic, and thermal properties of the core and mantle to be calculated given an assumed temperature (T) and mineralogical (X) distribution in the mantle while making use of a self consistent parameterisation of the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals. For a given T and X, this scheme allows us to determine the misfit between our model and observations for the long-wavelength surface geoid, core-mantle boundary topography, inner-core radius, total surface heat-flux and p- and s-wave tomography. The comparison is quick, taking much less than a second, and can accommodate uncertainty in the mineralogical parameterisation. This makes the scheme well-suited to use in a Monte Carlo approach to the determination of the long-wavelength temperature and composition of the lowermost mantle. We present some initial results from our model, which include the robust generation of a thermal boundary layer in the one-dimensional thermal structure.

Radial Variations in the Io Plasma Torus during the Cassini Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delamere, P. A.; Bagenal, F.; Steffl, A.

2005-01-01

A radial scan through the midnight sector of the Io plasma torus was made by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph on 14 January 2001, shortly after closest approach to Jupiter. From these data, Steffl et al. (2004a) derived electron temperature, plasma composition (ion mixing ratios), and electron column density as a function of radius from L = 6 to 0 as well as the total luminosity. We have advanced our homogeneous model of torus physical chemistry (Delamere and Bagenal, 2003) to include latitudinal and radial variations in a manner similar to the two-dimensional model by Schreier et al. (1998). The model variables include: (1) neutral source rate, (2) radial transport coefficient, (3) the hot electron fraction, (4) hot electron temperature, and (5) the neutral O/S ratio. The radial variation of parameters 1-4 are described by simple power laws, making a total of nine parameters. We have explored the sensitivity of the model results to variations in these parameters and compared the best fit with previous Voyager era models (schreier et al., 1998), galileo data (Crary et al., 1998), and Cassini observations (steffl et al., 2004a). We find that radial variations during the Cassini era are consistent with a neutral source rate of 700-1200 kg/s, an integrated transport time from L = 6 to 9 of 100-200 days, and that the core electron temperature is largely determined by a spatially and temporally varying superthermal electron population.

Response of winter and spring wheat grain yields to meteorological variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Paulsen, G. M.

1977-01-01

Mathematical models which quantify the relation of wheat yield to selected weather-related variables are presented. Other sources of variation (amount of applied nitrogen, improved varieties, cultural practices) have been incorporated in the models to explain yield variation both singly and in combination with weather-related variables. Separate models were developed for fall-planted (winter) and spring-planted (spring) wheats. Meteorological variation is observed, basically, by daily measurements of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and tabled values of solar radiation at the edge of the atmosphere and daylength. Two different soil moisture budgets are suggested to compute simulated values of evapotranspiration; one uses the above-mentioned inputs, the other uses the measured temperatures and precipitation but replaces the tabled values (solar radiation and daylength) by measured solar radiation and satellite-derived multispectral scanner data to estimate leaf area index. Weather-related variables are defined by phenological stages, rather than calendar periods, to make the models more universally applicable.

Vibration-based damage detection in a concrete beam under temperature variations using AR models and state-space approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, A.; Laurens, S.

2011-07-01

The Structural Health Monitoring of civil structures subjected to ambient vibrations is very challenging. Indeed, the variations of environmental conditions and the difficulty to characterize the excitation make the damage detection a hard task. Auto-regressive (AR) models coefficients are often used as damage sensitive feature. The presented work proposes a comparison of the AR approach with a state-space feature formed by the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical process. Since the detection of damage can be formulated as a novelty detection problem, Mahalanobis distance is applied to track new points from an undamaged reference collection of feature vectors. Data from a concrete beam subjected to temperature variations and damaged by several static loading are analyzed. It is observed that the damage sensitive features are effectively sensitive to temperature variations. However, the use of the Mahalanobis distance makes possible the detection of cracking with both of them. Early damage (before cracking) is only revealed by the AR coefficients with a good sensibility.

Pyroclastic Flow (Post-)Emplacement Thermal History Derived From Titanomagnetite Curie Temperatures: Mt. St. Helens and Soufrière Hills as Test Cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowles, J.; Jackson, M.; Lappe, S. C. L. L.; Solheid, P.; Stinton, A. J.

2014-12-01

Pumice blocks and ash matrix sampled from the 1980 pyroclastic flows at Mt. St. Helens and the 2010 flow at Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, display magnetic Curie temperatures (TC) that vary strongly with depth in the flow. We demonstrate that these TC variations result from variable degrees of cation ordering within Mg- and Al-bearing titanomagnetites, and that the degree of ordering is dependent on the emplacement temperature and post-emplacement thermal history of the sample. Curie temperatures are lowest at the tops of flows where rapid cooling has quenched in a relatively low degree of cation order. Samples that cooled more slowly at depth in the flow evolved towards a higher degree of cation order with a correspondingly higher TC. Isothermal annealing experiments in the laboratory have allowed us to document the time-temperature evolution of the cation ordering and Curie temperature, and we use this data in combination with conductive cooling calculations to forward model stratigraphic variations in TC as a function of emplacement temperature (e.g., Fig.1). Preliminary results show that modeled emplacement temperatures (Templ) are reasonably close to measured or estimated emplacement temperatures. Thermal demagnetization data from lithic clasts incorporated into some flows supports the modeled emplacement temperatures; a low-temperature overprint in the direction of the present-day field is removed at ~Templ. However, the documented variation of TC with thermal history means that care should be taken in interpreting this more traditional lithic-based paleomagnetic paleothermometry data. Modification of Curie and blocking temperatures both during natural cooling and during laboratory thermal treatments could affect lithic-based emplacement temperature estimates.

Linkages Between Global Vegetation and Climate: An Analysis Based on NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Data. Degree awarded by Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Los, Sietse Oene

1998-01-01

A monthly global 1 degree by 1 degree data set from 1982 until 1990 was derived from data collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on board the NOAA 7, 9, and 11 satellites. This data set was used to study the interactions between variations in climate and variations in the "greenness" of vegetation. Studies with the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model coupled to the Simple Biosphere model showed a large sensitivity of the hydrological balance to changes in vegetation at low latitudes. The depletion of soil moisture as a result of increased vegetation density provided a negative feedback in an otherwise positive association between increased vegetation, increased evaporation, and increased precipitation proposed by Charney and coworkers. Analysis of climate data showed, at temperate to high latitudes, a positive association between variation in land surface temperature, sea surface temperature and vegetation greenness. At low latitudes the data indicated a positive association between variations in sea surface temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness. The variations in mid- to high latitude temperatures affected the global average greenness and this could provide an explanation for the increased carbon uptake by the terrestrial surface over the past couple of decades.

The analysis of temperature effect and temperature compensation of MOEMS accelerometer based on a grating interferometric cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Dandan; Bai, Jian; Lu, Qianbo; Lou, Shuqi; Jiao, Xufen; Yang, Guoguang

2016-08-01

There is a temperature drift of an accelerometer attributed to the temperature variation, which would adversely influence the output performance. In this paper, a quantitative analysis of the temperature effect and the temperature compensation of a MOEMS accelerometer, which is composed of a grating interferometric cavity and a micromachined sensing chip, are proposed. A finite-element-method (FEM) approach is applied in this work to simulate the deformation of the sensing chip of the MOEMS accelerometer at different temperature from -20°C to 70°C. The deformation results in the variation of the distance between the grating and the sensing chip of the MOEMS accelerometer, modulating the output intensities finally. A static temperature model is set up to describe the temperature characteristics of the accelerometer through the simulation results and the temperature compensation is put forward based on the temperature model, which can improve the output performance of the accelerometer. This model is permitted to estimate the temperature effect of this type accelerometer, which contains a micromachined sensing chip. Comparison of the output intensities with and without temperature compensation indicates that the temperature compensation can improve the stability of the output intensities of the MOEMS accelerometer based on a grating interferometric cavity.

Application and theoretical analysis of the flamelet model for supersonic turbulent combustion flows in the scramjet engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhenxun; Wang, Jingying; Jiang, Chongwen; Lee, Chunhian

2014-11-01

In the framework of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulation, supersonic turbulent combustion flows at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) combustor and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) integrated scramjet engine are numerically simulated using the flamelet model. Based on the DLR combustor case, theoretical analysis and numerical experiments conclude that: the finite rate model only implicitly considers the large-scale turbulent effect and, due to the lack of the small-scale non-equilibrium effect, it would overshoot the peak temperature compared to the flamelet model in general. Furthermore, high-Mach-number compressibility affects the flamelet model mainly through two ways: the spatial pressure variation and the static enthalpy variation due to the kinetic energy. In the flamelet library, the mass fractions of the intermediate species, e.g. OH, are more sensible to the above two effects than the main species such as H2O. Additionally, in the combustion flowfield where the pressure is larger than the value adopted in the generation of the flamelet library or the conversion from the static enthalpy to the kinetic energy occurs, the temperature obtained by the flamelet model without taking compressibility effects into account would be undershot, and vice versa. The static enthalpy variation effect has only little influence on the temperature simulation of the flamelet model, while the effect of the spatial pressure variation may cause relatively large errors. From the JAXA case, it is found that the flamelet model cannot in general be used for an integrated scramjet engine. The existence of the inlet together with the transverse injection scheme could cause large spatial variations of pressure, so the pressure value adopted for the generation of a flamelet library should be fine-tuned according to a pre-simulation of pure mixing.

El Nino-Induced Tropical Ocean/Land Energy Exchange in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2017-01-01

Studies have shown the correlation and connection of surface temperatures across the globe, ocean and land, related to Tropical SSTs especially El Nino. This climate variability greatly influences regional weather and hydroclimate extremes (e.g. drought and flood). In this paper, we evaluate the relationship of temperatures across the tropical oceans and continents in MERRA-2, and also in a newly developed MERRA-2 AMIP ensemble simulation (M2AMIP). M2AMIP uses the same model and spatial resolution as MERRA-2, producing the same output diagnostics over 10 ensemble members. Composite El Nino temperature data are compared with observations to evaluate the land/sea contrast, variations and phase relationship. The temperature variations are related to surface heat fluxes and the atmospheric temperatures and transport, to identify the processes that lead to the lagged redistribution of heat in the tropics and beyond. Discernable cloud, radiation and data assimilation changes accompany the onset of El Nino affecting continental regions through the progression to and following the peak values. While the model represents these variations in general, regional strengths and weaknesses can be identified.

The relevance of MRI for patient modeling in head and neck hyperthermia treatment planning: a comparison of CT and CT-MRI based tissue segmentation on simulated temperature.

PubMed

Verhaart, René F; Fortunati, Valerio; Verduijn, Gerda M; van der Lugt, Aad; van Walsum, Theo; Veenland, Jifke F; Paulides, Margarethus M

2014-12-01

In current clinical practice, head and neck (H&N) hyperthermia treatment planning (HTP) is solely based on computed tomography (CT) images. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft-tissue contrast over CT. The purpose of the authors' study is to investigate the relevance of using MRI in addition to CT for patient modeling in H&N HTP. CT and MRI scans were acquired for 11 patients in an immobilization mask. Three observers manually segmented on CT, MRI T1 weighted (MRI-T1w), and MRI T2 weighted (MRI-T2w) images the following thermo-sensitive tissues: cerebrum, cerebellum, brainstem, myelum, sclera, lens, vitreous humor, and the optical nerve. For these tissues that are used for patient modeling in H&N HTP, the interobserver variation of manual tissue segmentation in CT and MRI was quantified with the mean surface distance (MSD). Next, the authors compared the impact of CT and CT and MRI based patient models on the predicted temperatures. For each tissue, the modality was selected that led to the lowest observer variation and inserted this in the combined CT and MRI based patient model (CT and MRI), after a deformable image registration. In addition, a patient model with a detailed segmentation of brain tissues (including white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid) was created (CT and MRIdb). To quantify the relevance of MRI based segmentation for H&N HTP, the authors compared the predicted maximum temperatures in the segmented tissues (Tmax) and the corresponding specific absorption rate (SAR) of the patient models based on (1) CT, (2) CT and MRI, and (3) CT and MRIdb. In MRI, a similar or reduced interobserver variation was found compared to CT (maximum of median MSD in CT: 0.93 mm, MRI-T1w: 0.72 mm, MRI-T2w: 0.66 mm). Only for the optical nerve the interobserver variation is significantly lower in CT compared to MRI (median MSD in CT: 0.58 mm, MRI-T1w: 1.27 mm, MRI-T2w: 1.40 mm). Patient models based on CT (Tmax: 38.0 °C) and CT and MRI (Tmax: 38.1 °C) result in similar simulated temperatures, while CT and MRIdb (Tmax: 38.5 °C) resulted in significantly higher temperatures. The SAR corresponding to these temperatures did not differ significantly. Although MR imaging reduces the interobserver variation in most tissues, it does not affect simulated local tissue temperatures. However, the improved soft-tissue contrast provided by MRI allows generating a detailed brain segmentation, which has a strong impact on the predicted local temperatures and hence may improve simulation guided hyperthermia.

Solar gravitational energy and luminosity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazel, Z.; Rozelot, J. P.; Lefebvre, S.; Ajabshirizadeh, A.; Pireaux, S.

2008-02-01

Due to non-homogeneous mass distribution and non-uniform velocity rate inside the Sun, the solar outer shape is distorted in latitude. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of a temporal change in this figure on the luminosity. To do so, we use the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) as an indicator of luminosity. Considering that most of the authors have explained the largest part of the TSI modulation with magnetic network (spots and faculae) but not the whole, we could set constraints on radius and effective temperature variations. Our best fit of modelled to observed irradiance gives d T = 1.2 K at d R = 10 mas. However computations show that the amplitude of solar irradiance modulation is very sensitive to photospheric temperature variations. In order to understand discrepancies between our best fit and recent observations of [Livingston, W.C., Gray, D., Wallace, L., White, O.R., 2005. In: Sankarasubramanian, K., Penn, M., Pevtsov, A. (Eds.), Large-scale Structures and their Role in Solar Activity, ASP Conference Series, vol. 346. Astronomical Society of the Pacific, p. 353], showing no effective surface temperature variation during the solar cycle, we investigated small effective temperature variation in irradiance modeling. We emphasized a phase-shift (correlated or anticorrelated radius and irradiance variations) in the (d R, d T)-parameter plane. We further obtained an upper limit on the amplitude of cyclic solar radius variations between 3.87 and 5.83 km, deduced from the gravitational energy variations. Our estimate is consistent with both observations of the helioseismic radius through the analysis of f-mode frequencies and observations of the basal photospheric temperature at Kitt Peak. Finally, we suggest a mechanism to explain weak changes in the solar shape due to variation of magnetic pressure which modifies the granules size. This mechanism is supported by an estimate of the asphericity-luminosity parameter, w = -7.61 × 10 -3, which implies an effectiveness of convective heat transfer only in very outer layers of the Sun.

Multireaction equilibrium geothermometry: A sensitivity analysis using data from the Lower Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Jonathan M.; Hurwitz, Shaul; Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; McCleskey, R. Blaine

2016-01-01

A multireaction chemical equilibria geothermometry (MEG) model applicable to high-temperature geothermal systems has been developed over the past three decades. Given sufficient data, this model provides more constraint on calculated reservoir temperatures than classical chemical geothermometers that are based on either the concentration of silica (SiO2), or the ratios of cation concentrations. A set of 23 chemical analyses from Ojo Caliente Spring and 22 analyses from other thermal features in the Lower Geyser Basin of Yellowstone National Park are used to examine the sensitivity of calculated reservoir temperatures using the GeoT MEG code (Spycher et al. 2013, 2014) to quantify the effects of solute concentrations, degassing, and mineral assemblages on calculated reservoir temperatures. Results of our analysis demonstrate that the MEG model can resolve reservoir temperatures within approximately ±15°C, and that natural variation in fluid compositions represents a greater source of variance in calculated reservoir temperatures than variations caused by analytical uncertainty (assuming ~5% for major elements). The analysis also suggests that MEG calculations are particularly sensitive to variations in silica concentration, the concentrations of the redox species Fe(II) and H2S, and that the parameters defining steam separation and CO2 degassing from the liquid may be adequately determined by numerical optimization. Results from this study can provide guidance for future applications of MEG models, and thus provide more reliable information on geothermal energy resources during exploration.

Joint inversion of shear wave travel time residuals and geoid and depth anomalies for long-wavelength variations in upper mantle temperature and composition along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheehan, Anne F.; Solomon, Sean C.

1991-01-01

Measurements were carried out for SS-S differential travel time residuals for nearly 500 paths crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, assuming that the residuals are dominated by contributions from the upper mantle near the surface bounce point of the reflected phase SS. Results indicate that the SS-S travel time residuals decrease linearly with square root of age, to an age of 80-100 Ma, in general agreement with the plate cooling model. A joint inversion was formulated of travel time residuals and geoid and bathymetric anomalies for lateral variation in the upper mantle temperature and composition. The preferred inversion solutions were found to have variations in upper mantle temperature along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge of about 100 K. It was calculated that, for a constant bulk composition, such a temperature variation would produce about a 7-km variation in crustal thickness, larger than is generally observed.

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE PAGES

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E; ...

2018-05-16

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

Extracting concrete thermal characteristics from temperature time history of RC column exposed to standard fire.

PubMed

Kim, Jung J; Youm, Kwang-Soo; Reda Taha, Mahmoud M

2014-01-01

A numerical method to identify thermal conductivity from time history of one-dimensional temperature variations in thermal unsteady-state is proposed. The numerical method considers the change of specific heat and thermal conductivity with respect to temperature. Fire test of reinforced concrete (RC) columns was conducted using a standard fire to obtain time history of temperature variations in the column section. A thermal equilibrium model in unsteady-state condition was developed. The thermal conductivity of concrete was then determined by optimizing the numerical solution of the model to meet the observed time history of temperature variations. The determined thermal conductivity with respect to temperature was then verified against standard thermal conductivity measurements of concrete bricks. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used to conservatively estimate thermal conductivity of concrete for design purpose. Finally, the thermal radiation properties of concrete for the RC column were estimated from the thermal equilibrium at the surface of the column. The radiant heat transfer ratio of concrete representing absorptivity to emissivity ratio of concrete during fire was evaluated and is suggested as a concrete criterion that can be used in fire safety assessment.

Extracting Concrete Thermal Characteristics from Temperature Time History of RC Column Exposed to Standard Fire

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

A numerical method to identify thermal conductivity from time history of one-dimensional temperature variations in thermal unsteady-state is proposed. The numerical method considers the change of specific heat and thermal conductivity with respect to temperature. Fire test of reinforced concrete (RC) columns was conducted using a standard fire to obtain time history of temperature variations in the column section. A thermal equilibrium model in unsteady-state condition was developed. The thermal conductivity of concrete was then determined by optimizing the numerical solution of the model to meet the observed time history of temperature variations. The determined thermal conductivity with respect to temperature was then verified against standard thermal conductivity measurements of concrete bricks. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used to conservatively estimate thermal conductivity of concrete for design purpose. Finally, the thermal radiation properties of concrete for the RC column were estimated from the thermal equilibrium at the surface of the column. The radiant heat transfer ratio of concrete representing absorptivity to emissivity ratio of concrete during fire was evaluated and is suggested as a concrete criterion that can be used in fire safety assessment. PMID:25180197

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. II - Dynamical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.

1984-01-01

The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

A Revised Thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM Version 3.4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.; James, B. F.

1996-01-01

This report describes the newly-revised model thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM, Version 3.4). It also provides descriptions of other changes made to the program since publication of the programmer's guide for Mars-GRAM Version 3.34. The original Mars-GRAM model thermosphere was based on the global-mean model of Stewart. The revised thermosphere is based largely on parameterizations derived from output data from the three-dimensional Mars Thermospheric Global Circulation Model (MTGCM). The new thermospheric model includes revised dependence on the 10.7 cm solar flux for the global means of exospheric temperature, temperature of the base of the thermosphere, and scale height for the thermospheric temperature variations, as well as revised dependence on orbital position for global mean height of the base of the thermosphere. Other features of the new thermospheric model are: (1) realistic variations of temperature and density with latitude and time of day, (2) more realistic wind magnitudes, based on improved estimates of horizontal pressure gradients, and (3) allowance for user-input adjustments to the model values for mean exospheric temperature and for height and temperature at the base of the thermosphere. Other new features of Mars-GRAM 3.4 include: (1) allowance for user-input values of climatic adjustment factors for temperature profiles from the surface to 75 km, and (2) a revised method for computing the sub-solar longitude position in the 'ORBIT' subroutine.

Io's Heat Flow: A Model Including "Warm" Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeder, G. J.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Davies, A. G.; Blaney, D. L.

2002-12-01

Some 90 percent of Io's surface is thermally "passive" material. It is separate from the sites of active volcanic eruptions. Though "passive", its thermal behavior continues to be a challenge for modelers. The usual approach is to take albedo, average daytime temperature, temperature as a function of time of day, etc., and attempt to match these constraints with a uniform surface with a single value of thermal inertia. Io is a case where even globally averaged observations are inconsistent with a single-thermal-inertia model approach. The Veeder et al. (1994) model for "passive" thermal emission addressed seven constraints derived from a decade of ground-based, global observations - average albedo plus infrared fluxes at three separate wavelengths (4.8, 8.7, and 20 microns) for both daytime and eclipsed conditions. This model has only two components - a unit of infinite thermal inertia and a unit of zero thermal inertia. The free parameters are the areal coverage ratio of the two units and their relative albedos (constrained to match the known average albedo). This two-parameter model agreed with the global radiometric data and also predicted significantly higher non-volcanic nighttime temperatures than traditional ("lunar-like") single thermal inertia models. Recent observations from the Galileo infrared radiometer show relatively uniform minimum-night-time temperatures. In particular, they show little variation with either latitude or time of night (Spencer et al., 2000; Rathbun et al., 2002). Additionally, detailed analyses of Io's scattering properties and reflectance variations have led to the interesting conclusion that Io's albedo at regional scales varies little with latitude (Simonelli, et al., 2001). This effectively adds four new observational constraints - lack of albedo variation with latitude, average minimum nighttime temperature and lack of variation of temperature with either latitude or longitude. We have made the fewest modifications necessary for the Veeder et al. model to match these new constrains - we added two model parameters to characterize the volcanically heated high-latitude units. These are the latitude above which the unit exists and its nighttime temperature. The resulting four-parameter model is the first that encompasses all of the available observations of Io's thermal emission and that quantitatively satisfies all eleven observational constraints. While no model is unique, this model is significant because it is the first to accommodate widespread polar regions that are relatively "warm". This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Diagnosis of middle atmosphere chemistry-dynamics interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Swartz, W. H.; Garcia, R. R.; Chartier, A.; Yee, J. H.; Yue, J.

2017-12-01

We apply the recently developed middle atmosphere climate feedback-response analysis method (MCFRAM) to diagnosing the temperature variations associated with chemistry-dynamics interactions in the middle atmosphere. By using output fields from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) coupled with the measurements, we identify and isolate the distinctive characteristics of different components in the observed temperature variations. Both the temperature trends associated with the anthropogenic forcing and temperature changes associated with natural and internal feedback processes are quantified based on MCFRAM defined partial temperature changes corresponding to localized radiative heating, non-localized chemical heating, eddy transport, and transport by the mean meridional circulation of energy and chemical species. In addition, the temperature responses to variations of CO2, O3, and solar flux have distinctly different spatial structures that can be systematically categorized by the eigenmodes of the generalized damping matrix derived from MCFRAM.

Thermal modeling of the lithium/polymer battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pals, C. R.

1994-10-01

Research in the area of advanced batteries for electric-vehicle applications has increased steadily since the 1990 zero-emission-vehicle mandate of the California Air Resources Board. Due to their design flexibility and potentially high energy and power densities, lithium/polymer batteries are an emerging technology for electric-vehicle applications. Thermal modeling of lithium/polymer batteries is particularly important because the transport properties of the system depend exponentially on temperature. Two models have been presented for assessment of the thermal behavior of lithium/polymer batteries. The one-cell model predicts the cell potential, the concentration profiles, and the heat-generation rate during discharge. The cell-stack model predicts temperature profiles and heat transfer limitations of the battery. Due to the variation of ionic conductivity and salt diffusion coefficient with temperature, the performance of the lithium/polymer battery is greatly affected by temperature. Because of this variation, it is important to optimize the cell operating temperature and design a thermal management system for the battery. Since the thermal conductivity of the polymer electrolyte is very low, heat is not easily conducted in the direction perpendicular to cell layers. Temperature profiles in the cells are not as significant as expected because heat-generation rates in warmer areas of the cell stack are lower than heat-generation rates in cooler areas of the stack. This nonuniform heat-generation rate flattens the temperature profile. Temperature profiles as calculated by this model are not as steep as those calculated by previous models that assume a uniform heat-generation rate.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temperature dependence of single-event burnout in n-channel power MOSFET's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, G. H.; Schrimpf, R. D.; Galloway, K. F.; Koga, R.

1994-03-01

The temperature dependence of single-event burnout (SEB) in n-channel power metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFET's) is investigated experimentally and analytically. Experimental data are presented which indicate that the SEB susceptibility of the power MOSFET decreases with increasing temperature. A previously reported analytical model that describes the SEB mechanism is updated to include temperature variations. This model is shown to agree with the experimental trends.

Parameter variation effects on temperature elevation in a steady-state, one-dimensional thermal model for millimeter wave exposure of one- and three-layer human tissue.

PubMed

Kanezaki, Akio; Hirata, Akimasa; Watanabe, Soichi; Shirai, Hiroshi

2010-08-21

The present study describes theoretical parametric analysis of the steady-state temperature elevation in one-dimensional three-layer (skin, fat and muscle) and one-layer (skin only) models due to millimeter-wave exposure. The motivation of this fundamental investigation is that some variability of warmth sensation in the human skin has been reported. An analytical solution for a bioheat equation was derived by using the Laplace transform for the one-dimensional human models. Approximate expressions were obtained to investigate the dependence of temperature elevation on different thermal and tissue thickness parameters. It was shown that the temperature elevation on the body surface decreases monotonically with the blood perfusion rate, heat conductivity and heat transfer from the body to air. Also revealed were the conditions where maximum and minimum surface temperature elevations were observed for different thermal and tissue thickness parameters. The surface temperature elevation in the three-layer model is 1.3-2.8 times greater than that in the one-layer model. The main reason for this difference is attributed to the adiabatic nature of the fat layer. By considering the variation range of thermal and tissue thickness parameters which causes the maximum and minimum temperature elevations, the dominant parameter influencing the surface temperature elevation was found to be the heat transfer coefficient between the body surface and air.

The model of the composition of the Martian atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Izakov, M. N.; Krasitskiy, O. P.

1977-01-01

Global mean distributions of Martian atmospheric components concentrations from the planet's surface up to an altitude of 250 km are calculated. Improved data on the turbulent mixing coefficient, as a function of altitude, on temperature distribution and on chemical and photochemical reaction rates are used. The model data agree well with available measurements of some components concentrations. Variations of composition due to long-period variations of temperature, moisture and turbulent mixing are investigated. The relative significance of different catalytic cycles and the important role of excited atoms 0 (d-1) are revealed.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Endreny, Theodore A.; Nowak, David J.

2013-09-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat storage based on semiempirical functions and generates spatially distributed estimates based on inputs of topography, land cover, and the weather data measured at a reference site. The model assumes that for all grids under the same mesoscale climate, grid air temperature and humidity are modified by local variation in absorbed solar radiation and the partitioning of sensible and latent heat. The model uses a reference grid site for time series meteorological data and the air temperature and humidity of any other grid can be obtained by solving the heat flux network equations. PASATH was coupled with the USDA iTree-Hydro water balance model to obtain evapotranspiration terms and run from 20 to 29 August 2010 at a 360 m by 360 m grid scale and hourly time step across a 285 km2 watershed including the urban area of Syracuse, NY. PASATH predictions were tested at nine urban weather stations representing variability in urban topography and land cover. The PASATH model predictive efficiency R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.99 for air temperature and 0.77 to 0.97 for dew point temperature. PASATH is expected to have broad applications on environmental and ecological models.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-01-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

PubMed

Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-06-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of blackbody effective emissivity to wavelength and temperature: By genetic algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ejigu, E. K.; Liedberg, H. G.

A variable-temperature blackbody (VTBB) is used to calibrate an infrared radiation thermometer (pyrometer). The effective emissivity (ε{sub eff}) of a VTBB is dependent on temperature and wavelength other than the geometry of the VTBB. In the calibration process the effective emissivity is often assumed to be constant within the wavelength and temperature range. There are practical situations where the sensitivity of the effective emissivity needs to be known and correction has to be applied. We present a method using a genetic algorithm to investigate the sensitivity of the effective emissivity to wavelength and temperature variation. Two matlab® programs are generated:more » the first to model the radiance temperature calculation and the second to connect the model to the genetic algorithm optimization toolbox. The effective emissivity parameter is taken as a chromosome and optimized at each wavelength and temperature point. The difference between the contact temperature (reading from a platinum resistance thermometer or liquid in glass thermometer) and radiance temperature (calculated from the ε{sub eff} values) is used as an objective function where merit values are calculated and best fit ε{sub eff} values selected. The best fit ε{sub eff} values obtained as a solution show how sensitive they are to temperature and wavelength parameter variation. Uncertainty components that arise from wavelength and temperature variation are determined based on the sensitivity analysis. Numerical examples are considered for illustration.« less

A numerical study of diurnally varying surface temperature on flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-03-01

The impacts of the diurnal variation of surface temperature on street canyon flow pattern and pollutant dispersion are investigated based on a two-dimensional street canyon model under different thermal stratifications. Uneven distributed street temperature conditions and a user-defined wall function representing the heat transfer between the air and the street canyon are integrated into the current numerical model. The prediction accuracy of this model is successfully validated against a published wind tunnel experiment. Then, a series of numerical simulations representing four time scenarios (Morning, Afternoon, Noon and Night) are performed at different Bulk Richardson number (Rb). The results demonstrate that uneven distributed street temperature conditions significantly alters street canyon flow structure and pollutant dispersion characteristics compared with conventional uniform street temperature assumption, especially for the morning event. Moreover, air flow patterns and pollutant dispersion are greatly influenced by diurnal variation of surface temperature under unstable stratification conditions. Furthermore, the residual pollutant in near-ground-zone decreases as Rb increases in noon, afternoon and night events under all studied stability conditions.

Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

PubMed Central

Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

2016-01-01

Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables. PMID:26808311

Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008-2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion.

PubMed

Liao, Jiaqiang; Yu, Shicheng; Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

2016-01-01

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008-2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse "V" shape and "V" shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Non-linear three dimensional spectral model of the Venusian thermosphere with super-rotation. I - Formulation and numerical technique. II - Temperature, composition and winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens-Rayburn, D. R.; Mengel, J. G.; Harris, I.; Mayr, H. G.

1989-01-01

A three-dimensional spectral model for the Venusion thermosphere is presented which uses spherical harmonics to represent the horizontal variations in longitude and latitude and which uses Fourier harmonics to represent the LT variations due to atmospheric rotation. A differencing scheme with tridiagonal block elimination is used to perform the height integration. Quadratic nonlinearities are taken into account. In the second part, numerical results obtained with the model are shown to reproduce the observed broad daytime maxima in CO2 and CO and the significantly larger values at dawn than at dusk. It is found that the diurnal variations in He are most sensitive to thermospheric superrotation, and that, given a globally uniform atmosphere as input, larger heating rates yield a larger temperature contrast between day and night.

Some effects of topography, soil moisture, and sea-surface temperature on continental precipitation as computed with the GISS coarse mesh climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.

1981-01-01

The effects of terrain elevation, soil moisture, and zonal variations in sea/surface temperature on the mean daily precipitation rates over Australia, Africa, and South America in January were evaluated. It is suggested that evaporation of soil moisture may either increase or decrease the model generated precipitation, depending on the surface albedo. It was found that a flat, dry continent model best simulates the January rainfall over Australia and South America, while over Africa the simulation is improved by the inclusion of surface physics, specifically soil moisture and albedo variations.

Modeling aspen and red pine shoot growth to daily weather variations.

Treesearch

Donald A. Perala

1983-01-01

Quantifies daily shoot growth of quaking aspen and red pine in response to daily variation in air temperature, soil moisture, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, and inherent seasonal plant growth rhythm. Discusses potential application of shoot growth equations to silvicultural problems related to microclimatic variation. Identifies limitations and areas for...

Female turtles from hot nests: is it duration of incubation or proportion of development at high temperatures that matters?

PubMed

Georges, Arthur

1989-11-01

Mean daily temperature in natural nests of freshwater turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination is known to be a poor predictor of hatchling sex ratios when nest temperatures fluctuate. To account for this, a model was developed on the assumption that females will emerge from eggs when more than half of embryonic development occurs above the threshold temperature for sex determination rather than from eggs that spend more than half their time above the threshold. The model is consistent with previously published data and in particular explains the phenomenon whereby the mean temperature that best distinguishes between male and female nests decreases with increasing variability in nest temperature. The model, if verified by controlled experiments, has important implications for our understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination in natural nests. Both mean nest temperature and "hours spent above the threshold" will be poor predictors of hatchling sex ratios. Studies designed to investigate latitudinal trends and inter-specific differences in the threshold temperature will need to consider latitudinal and inter-specific variation in the magnitude of diel fluctuations in nest temperature, and variation in factors influencing the magnitude of those fluctuations, such as nest depth. Furthermore, any factor that modifies the relationship between developmental rate and temperature can be expected to influence hatchling sex ratios in natural nests, especially when nest temperatures are close to the threshold.

The Radial Temperature Gradient in the Gleeble® Hot-Torsion Test and Its Effect on the Interpretation of Plastic-Flow Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semiatin, S. L.; Mahaffey, D. W.; Levkulich, N. C.; Senkov, O. N.

2017-11-01

The radial temperature gradient developed via direct-resistance heating of round-bar hot-torsion specimens in a Gleeble® machine and its effect on the interpretation of plastic-flow behavior were established using a suite of experimental, analytical, and numerical-simulation tools. Observations of the microstructure variation developed within a γ'-strengthened nickel-base superalloy were used to infer the temperature gradient as well as differences between the temperature at the outer diameter and that indicated by thermocouples welded to the surface. At temperatures of the order of 1375 K (1102 °C), the radial variation of temperature was typically 20 K ( 20 °C). Such variations were in agreement with an analytical heat-conduction model based on the balance of input thermal energy and radiation heat loss at the free surface. Using a constitutive model for LSHR, the effect of the radial temperature gradient on plastic flow during hot torsion was assessed via numerical integration of the torque as a function of radial position for such cases as well as that corresponding to a uniformly-heated sample. These calculations revealed that the torque generated in the non-uniform case is almost identical to that developed in a sample uniformly preheated to a temperature corresponding to that experienced at a fractional radial location of 0.8 in the former case.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Blanford, Simon; Bell, Andrew S; Blanford, Justine I; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2010-08-24

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Shape, size and temperature dependency of thermal expansion, lattice parameter and bulk modulus in nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, M.; Gupta, B. R. K.

2018-06-01

A theoretical model is described here for studying the effect of temperature on nanomaterials. The thermodynamic equation of state (EoS) proposed by Goyal and Gupta in High Temp.-High Press. 45, 163 (2016); Oriental J. Chem. 32( 4), 2193 (2016), is extended in the present study using Qi and Wang model [ Mater. Chem. Phys. 88, 280 (2004)]. The thermal expansion coefficient is expressed in terms of shape and size and used to obtain the isobaric EoS of nanomaterials for the change in volume V/{V_0}. The variation in V/{V_0} with temperature is estimated for spherical nanoparticles, nanowires and nanofilms. It is found that the volume thermal expansivity decreases as size of the nanomaterial increases, whereas V/{V_0} increases with temperature across nanomaterials of different sizes. The lattice parameter variation with temperature is studied in Zn nanowires, Se and Ag nanoparticles. It is found that lattice constant increases with increase in temperature. Also, bulk modulus is found to increase with temperature in nanomaterials. The results obtained from the present model are compared with the available experimental data. A good consistency between the compared results confirms the suitability of the present model for studying thermal properties of the nanomaterials.

A simple estimate of ecosystem respiration across biomes based on MODIS products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaegermeyr, J.; Hostert, P.; Lucht, W.

2010-12-01

Beside carbon sequestration by terrestrial photosynthesis, in particular the subsequent carbon release by ecosystem respiration (Reco) is a crucial flux for estimating carbon budgets. Heterotrophic soil decomposition rates (Rh) and autotrophic respiration rates (Ra), which add up to Reco, are highly sensitive to environmental conditions and in some cases they determine net ecosystem productivity. Prior respiration modeling approaches revealed that a precise process-based and bottom-up modeling is important for realistic estimates. On a short timescale, as in the case of satellite environmental monitoring, simplified empirical models are not necessarily less accurate, though. For most major biomes, ecosystem carbon efflux is predominantly driven by air temperature. It can further be limited by water stress, plant activity and substrate quality. Developing simple, empirical and wall-to-wall respiration models from continuous Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land products on a continental scale can enhance our understanding of spatially explicit respiration patterns. We therefore accept model uncertainties by simplifying decay and respiratory processes in that we account for a single static carbon pool and do not include any feedback mechanisms. Preliminary results suggest that the 8-day MODIS 1km land surface temperature product (LST) and the vegetation-water index (NDWI) derived from the 8-day MODIS 500m surface reflectance product are sufficient to largely explain the variability of Reco. Spatial flux variations can be attributed to plant activity variation. We therefore introduce a site-specific, maximum leaf area index (LAI) from the MODIS 1km LAI product as a proxy. A biome-specific model parameterization and validation is performed, based on 8-day composite FLUXNET tower data representing major global biomes. We found that the frequently used temperature model by Loyd and Taylor (1994) does not show superior performance on 8-day ecosystem respiration data. The model by Del Grosso et al. (2005) is more flexible to account for lower Q10 values at high temperatures and thus it is used to describe the temperature dependency here. Although we cannot explain flux variations arising from overall carbon pool variations, results suggest that our approach may contribute to simplified Reco estimates.

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984-2007.

PubMed

Vutcovici, Maria; Goldberg, Mark S; Valois, Marie-France

2014-07-01

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied extensively. Recent data suggest an independent role of diurnal temperature variations in increasing daily mortality. Elderly adults-a growing subgroup of the population in developed countries-may be more susceptible to the effects of temperature variations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature were associated with daily non-accidental mortality among residents of Montreal, Québec, who were 65 years of age and over during the period between 1984 and 2007. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models constrained over a 30-day lag period, adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone to estimate changes in daily mortality with diurnal temperature. We found, over the 30 day lag period, a cumulative increase in daily mortality of 5.12% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-10.49%] for a change from 5.9 °C to 11.1 °C (25th to 75th percentiles) in diurnal temperature, and a 11.27% (95%CI: 2.08-21.29%) increase in mortality associated with an increase of diurnal temperature from 11.1 to 17.5 °C (75th to 99th percentiles). The results were relatively robust to adjustment for daily mean temperature. We found that, in Montreal, diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in non-accidental mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm this effect.

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India.

PubMed

Cator, Lauren J; Thomas, Shalu; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Ravishankaran, Sangamithra; Justin, Johnson A; Mathai, Manu T; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Eapen, Alex

2013-03-02

Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings.

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. Methods A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Results Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Conclusions Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings. PMID:23452620

Evaluation of data transformations used with the square root and schoolfield models for predicting bacterial growth rate.

PubMed Central

Alber, S A; Schaffner, D W

1992-01-01

A comparison was made between mathematical variations of the square root and Schoolfield models for predicting growth rate as a function of temperature. The statistical consequences of square root and natural logarithm transformations of growth rate use in several variations of the Schoolfield and square root models were examined. Growth rate variances of Yersinia enterocolitica in brain heart infusion broth increased as a function of temperature. The ability of the two data transformations to correct for the heterogeneity of variance was evaluated. A natural logarithm transformation of growth rate was more effective than a square root transformation at correcting for the heterogeneity of variance. The square root model was more accurate than the Schoolfield model when both models used natural logarithm transformation. PMID:1444367

Models of Solar Irradiance Variability and the Instrumental Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, S. L.; Ghil, M.; Ide, K.

1998-01-01

The effects of decade-to-century (Dec-Cen) variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) on global mean surface temperature Ts during the pre-Pinatubo instrumental era (1854-1991) are studied by using two different proxies for TSI and a simplified version of the IPCC climate model.

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Gary D.; Carline, Robert F.; Wagner, Tyler

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011.Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed.Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship (R2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment.Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase (r) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years.Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults (N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r. Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation.Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum wi values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures (N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures (N = 1).Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

The relevance of MRI for patient modeling in head and neck hyperthermia treatment planning: A comparison of CT and CT-MRI based tissue segmentation on simulated temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verhaart, René F., E-mail: r.f.verhaart@erasmusmc.nl; Paulides, Margarethus M.; Fortunati, Valerio

Purpose: In current clinical practice, head and neck (H and N) hyperthermia treatment planning (HTP) is solely based on computed tomography (CT) images. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft-tissue contrast over CT. The purpose of the authors’ study is to investigate the relevance of using MRI in addition to CT for patient modeling in H and N HTP. Methods: CT and MRI scans were acquired for 11 patients in an immobilization mask. Three observers manually segmented on CT, MRI T1 weighted (MRI-T1w), and MRI T2 weighted (MRI-T2w) images the following thermo-sensitive tissues: cerebrum, cerebellum, brainstem, myelum, sclera, lens, vitreousmore » humor, and the optical nerve. For these tissues that are used for patient modeling in H and N HTP, the interobserver variation of manual tissue segmentation in CT and MRI was quantified with the mean surface distance (MSD). Next, the authors compared the impact of CT and CT and MRI based patient models on the predicted temperatures. For each tissue, the modality was selected that led to the lowest observer variation and inserted this in the combined CT and MRI based patient model (CT and MRI), after a deformable image registration. In addition, a patient model with a detailed segmentation of brain tissues (including white matter, gray matter, and cerebrospinal fluid) was created (CT and MRI{sub db}). To quantify the relevance of MRI based segmentation for H and N HTP, the authors compared the predicted maximum temperatures in the segmented tissues (T{sub max}) and the corresponding specific absorption rate (SAR) of the patient models based on (1) CT, (2) CT and MRI, and (3) CT and MRI{sub db}. Results: In MRI, a similar or reduced interobserver variation was found compared to CT (maximum of median MSD in CT: 0.93 mm, MRI-T1w: 0.72 mm, MRI-T2w: 0.66 mm). Only for the optical nerve the interobserver variation is significantly lower in CT compared to MRI (median MSD in CT: 0.58 mm, MRI-T1w: 1.27 mm, MRI-T2w: 1.40 mm). Patient models based on CT (T{sub max}: 38.0 °C) and CT and MRI (T{sub max}: 38.1 °C) result in similar simulated temperatures, while CT and MRI{sub db} (T{sub max}: 38.5 °C) resulted in significantly higher temperatures. The SAR corresponding to these temperatures did not differ significantly. Conclusions: Although MR imaging reduces the interobserver variation in most tissues, it does not affect simulated local tissue temperatures. However, the improved soft-tissue contrast provided by MRI allows generating a detailed brain segmentation, which has a strong impact on the predicted local temperatures and hence may improve simulation guided hyperthermia.« less

Structural characterization and observation of variable range hopping conduction mechanism at high temperature in CdSe quantum dot solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Subhojyoti; Kumar Chatterjee, Sanat; Ghosh, Jiten; Kumar Meikap, Ajit

2013-03-01

We have used Rietveld refinement technique to extract the microstructural parameters of thioglycolic acid capped CdSe quantum dots. The quantum dot formation and its efficient capping are further confirmed by HR-TEM, UV-visible and FT-IR spectroscopy. Comparative study of the variation of dc conductivity with temperature (298 K ≤ T ≤ 460 K) is given considering Arrhenius formalism, small polaron hopping and Schnakenberg model. We observe that only Schnakenberg model provides good fit to the non-linear region of the variation of dc conductivity with temperature. Experimental variation of ac conductivity and dielectric parameters with temperature (298 K ≤ T ≤ 460 K) and frequency (80 Hz ≤ f ≤ 2 MHz) are discussed in the light of hopping theory and quantum confinement effect. We have elucidated the observed non-linearity in the I-V curves (measured within ±50 V), at dark and at ambient light, in view of tunneling mechanism. Tunnel exponents and non-linearity weight factors have also been evaluated in this regard.

A phase field approach for the fully coupled thermo-electro-mechanical dynamics of nanoscale ferroelectric actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dan; Du, Haoyuan; Wang, Linxiang; Melnik, Roderick

2018-05-01

The fully coupled thermo-electro-mechanical properties of nanoscale ferroelectric actuators are investigated by a phase field model. Firstly, the thermal effect is incorporated into the commonly-used phase field model for ferroelectric materials in a thermodynamic consistent way and the governing equation for the temperature field is derived. Afterwards, the modified model is numerically implemented to study a selected prototype of the ferroelectric actuators, where strain associated with electric field-induced non-180° domain switching is employed. The temperature variation and energy flow in the actuation process are presented, which enhances our understanding of the working mechanism of the actuators. Furthermore, the influences of the input voltage frequency and the thermal boundary condition on the temperature variation are demonstrated and carefully discussed in the context of thermal management for real applications.

A Variational Formalism for the Radiative Transfer Equation and a Geostrophic, Hydrostatic Atmosphere: Prelude to Model 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.

1991-01-01

The second step in development of MODEL III is summarized. It combines the four radiative transfer equations of the first step with the equations for a geostrophic and hydrostatic atmosphere. This step is intended to bring radiance into a three dimensional balance with wind, height, and temperature. The use of the geostrophic approximation in place of the full set of primitive equations allows for an easier evaluation of how the inclusion of the radiative transfer equation increases the complexity of the variational equations. Seven different variational formulations were developed for geostrophic, hydrostatic, and radiative transfer equations. The first derivation was too complex to yield solutions that were physically meaningful. For the remaining six derivations, the variational method gave the same physical interpretation (the observed brightness temperatures could provide no meaningful input to a geostrophic, hydrostatic balance) at least through the problem solving methodology used in these studies. The variational method is presented and the Euler-Lagrange equations rederived for the geostrophic, hydrostatic, and radiative transfer equations.

High frequency thermal emission from the lunar surface and near surface temperature of the Moon from Chang’E-2 microwave radiometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Tuo; Fa, Wenzhe

2014-04-01

Near surface temperature of the Moon and thermal behaviors of the lunar regolith can provide important information for constraining thermal and magmatic evolution models of the Moon and engineering constrains for in situ lunar exploration system. In this study, China’s Chang’E-2 (CE-2) microwave radiometer (MRM) data at high frequency channels are used to investigate near surface temperature of the Moon given the penetration ability of microwave into the desiccated and porous lunar regolith. Factors that affect high frequency brightness temperature (TB), such as surface slope, solar albedo and dielectric constant, are analyzed first using a revised Racca’s temperature model. Radiative transfer theory is then used to model thermal emission from a semi-infinite regolith medium, with considering dielectric constant and temperature profiles within the regolith layer. To decouple the effect of diurnal temperature variation in the uppermost lunar surface, diurnal averaged brightness temperatures at high frequency channels are used to invert mean diurnal surface and subsurface temperatures based on their bilinear profiles within the regolith layer. Our results show that, at the scale of the spatial resolution of CE-2 MRM, surface slope of crater wall varies typically from about 20° to 30°, and this causes a variation in TB about 10-15 K. Solar albedo can give rise to a TB difference of about 5-10 K between maria and highlands, whereas a ∼2-8 K difference can be compensated by the dielectric constant on the other hand. Inversion results indicate that latitude (ϕ) variations of the mean diurnal surface and subsurface temperatures follow simple rules as cos0.30ϕ and cos0.36ϕ, respectively. The inverted mean diurnal temperature profiles at the Apollo 15 and 17 landing sites are also compared with the Apollo heat flow experiment data, showing an inversion uncertainty <4 K for surface temperature and <1 K for subsurface temperature.

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

The effect of influent temperature variations in a sedimentation tank for potable water treatment--a computational fluid dynamics study.

PubMed

Goula, Athanasia M; Kostoglou, Margaritis; Karapantsios, Thodoris D; Zouboulis, Anastasios I

2008-07-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is used to assess the effect of influent temperature variation on solids settling in a sedimentation tank for potable water treatment. The model is based on the CFD code Fluent and exploits several specific aspects of the potable water application to derive a computational tool much more efficient than the corresponding tools employed to simulate primary and secondary wastewater settling tanks. The linearity of the particle conservation equations allows separate calculations for each particle size class, leading to the uncoupling of the CFD problem from a particular inlet particle size distribution. The usually unknown and difficult to be measured particle density is determined by matching the theoretical to the easily measured experimental total settling efficiency. The present model is adjusted against data from a real sedimentation tank and then it is used to assess the significance of influent temperature variation. It is found that a temperature difference of only 1 degrees C between influent and tank content is enough to induce a density current. When the influent temperature rises, the tank exhibits a rising buoyant plume that changes the direction of the main circular current. This process keeps the particles in suspension and leads to a higher effluent suspended solids concentration, thus, worse settling. As the warmer water keeps coming in, the temperature differential decreases, the current starts going back to its original position, and, thus, the suspended solids concentration decreases.

High fidelity chemistry and radiation modeling for oxy -- combustion scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul Sater, Hassan A.

To account for the thermal and chemical effects associated with the high CO2 concentrations in an oxy-combustion atmosphere, several refined gas-phase chemistry and radiative property models have been formulated for laminar to highly turbulent systems. This thesis examines the accuracies of several chemistry and radiative property models employed in computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of laminar to transitional oxy-methane diffusion flames by comparing their predictions against experimental data. Literature review about chemistry and radiation modeling in oxy-combustion atmospheres considered turbulent systems where the predictions are impacted by the interplay and accuracies of the turbulence, radiation and chemistry models. Thus, by considering a laminar system we minimize the impact of turbulence and the uncertainties associated with turbulence models. In the first section of this thesis, an assessment and validation of gray and non-gray formulations of a recently proposed weighted-sum-of-gray gas model in oxy-combustion scenarios was undertaken. Predictions of gas, wall temperatures and flame lengths were in good agreement with experimental measurements. The temperature and flame length predictions were not sensitive to the radiative property model employed. However, there were significant variations between the gray and non-gray model radiant fraction predictions with the variations in general increasing with decrease in Reynolds numbers possibly attributed to shorter flames and steeper temperature gradients. The results of this section confirm that non-gray model predictions of radiative heat fluxes are more accurate than gray model predictions especially at steeper temperature gradients. In the second section, the accuracies of three gas-phase chemistry models were assessed by comparing their predictions against experimental measurements of temperature, species concentrations and flame lengths. The chemistry was modeled employing the Eddy Dissipation Concept (EDC) employing a 41-step detailed chemistry mechanism, the non-adiabatic extension of the equilibrium Probability Density Function (PDF) based mixture-fraction model and a two-step global finite rate chemistry model with modified rate constants proposed to work well in oxy-methane flames. Based on the results from this section, the equilibrium PDF model in conjunction with a high-fidelity non-gray model for the radiative properties of the gas-phase may be deemed as accurate to capture the major gas species concentrations, temperatures and flame lengths in oxy-methane flames. The third section examines the variations in radiative transfer predictions due to the choice of chemistry and gas-phase radiative property models. The radiative properties were estimated employing four weighted-sum-of-gray-gases models (WSGGM) that were formulated employing different spectroscopic/model databases. An average variation of 14 -- 17% in the wall incident radiative fluxes was observed between the EDC and equilibrium mixture fraction chemistry models, due to differences in their temperature predictions within the flame. One-dimensional, line-of-sight radiation calculations showed a 15 -- 25 % reduction in the directional radiative fluxes at lower axial locations as a result of ignoring radiation from CO and CH4. Under the constraints of fixed temperature and species distributions, the flame radiant power estimates and average wall incident radiative fluxes varied by nearly 60% and 11% respectively among the different WSGG models.

A New Global Empirical Model of the Electron Temperature with the Inclusion of the Solar Activity Variations for IRI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truhlik, V.; Triskova, L.

2012-01-01

A data-base of electron temperature (T(sub e)) comprising of most of the available LEO satellite measurements in the altitude range from 350 to 2000 km has been used for the development of a new global empirical model of T(sub e) for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). For the first time this will include variations with solar activity. Variations at five fixed altitude ranges centered at 350, 550, 850, 1400, and 2000 km and three seasons (summer, winter, and equinox) were represented by a system of associated Legendre polynomials (up to the 8th order) in terms of magnetic local time and the earlier introduced in vdip latitude. The solar activity variations of T(sub e) are represented by a correction term of the T(sub e) global pattern and it has been derived from the empirical latitudinal profiles of T(sub e) for day and night (Truhlik et al., 2009a). Comparisons of the new T(sub e) model with data and with the IRI 2007 Te model show that the new model agrees well with the data generally within standard deviation limits and that the model performs better than the current IRI T(sub e) model.

Morphology of the transition from an axial high to a rift valley at the Southeast Indian Ridge and the relation to variations in mantle temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Anjana K.; SempéRé, Jean-Christophe

1998-03-01

The Southeast Indian Ridge exhibits a transition in axial morphology from an East Pacific Rise-like axial high near 100°E to a Mid-Atlantic Ridge-like rift valley near 116°E but spreads at a nearly constant rate of 74-76 mm/yr. Assuming that the source of this transition lies in variations in mantle temperature, we use shipboard gravity-derived crustal thickness and ridge flank depth to estimate the variations in temperature associated with the changes in morphological style. Within the transitional region, SeaBeam 2000 bathymetry shows scattered instances of highs, valleys, and split volcanic ridges at the axis. A comparison of axial morphology to abyssal hill shapes and symmetry properties suggests that this unorganized distribution is due to the ridge axis episodically alternating between an axial valley and a volcanic ridge. Axial morphology can then be divided into three classes, with distinct geographic borders: axial highs and rifted highs are observed west of a transform fault at 102°45'E; rift valleys are observed east of a transform fault at 114°E; and an intermediate-style morphology which alternates between a volcanic ridge and a shallow axial valley is observed between the two. One segment, between 107° and 108°30'E, forms an exception to the geographical boundaries. Gravity-derived crustal thickness and flank depth generally vary monotonically over the region, with the exception of the segment between 107°E and 108°30'E. The long-wavelength variations in these properties correlate with the above morphological classification. Gravity-derived crustal thickness varies on average ˜2 km between the axial high and rift valley regions. The application of previous models relating crustal thickness and mantle temperature places the corresponding temperature variation at 25°C-50°C, depending on the model used. The average depth of ridge flanks varies by ˜550 m over the study area. For a variation of 25°-50°C, thermal models of the mantle predict depth variations of 75-150 m. These values are consistent with observations when the combined contributions of crustal thickness and mantle density to ridge flank depth are considered, assuming Airy isostasy. Crustal thickness variations differ at the two transitions described above: A difference of 750 m in crustal thickness is observed at the rift valley/intermediate-style transition, suggesting small variations in crustal thickness and mantle temperature drive this transition. At the axial high-rifted high/intermediate-style transition, crustal thickness variations are not resolvable, suggesting that this transition is controlled by threshold values of crustal thickness and mantle temperature, and is perhaps related to the presence of a steady state magma chamber.

Thermal Modeling of the Main Rings of Saturn through random distribution particle arrays and ray-tracing simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flandes, Alberto; Spilker, Linda; Déau, Estelle

2016-10-01

Saturn's rings are a complex collection of icy particles with diameters from 1 m to few meters. Their natural window of study is the infrared because its temperatures are between 40K and 120K. The main driver of the temperature of these rings is the direct solar radiation as well as the solar radiation reflected off Saturn's atmosphere. The second most important energy source is the infrared radiation coming from Saturn itself. The study of the variations of temperatures of the rings, or, in general, their thermal behavior, may provide important information on their composition, their structure and their dynamics. Models that consider these and other energy sources are able to explain, to a first approximation, the observed temperature variations of the rings. The challenge for these models is to accurately describe the variation of illumination on the rings, i. e., how the illuminated and non-illuminated regions of the ring particles change at the different observation geometries. This shadowing mainly depends on the optical depth, as well as the general structure of the rings.In this work, We show a semi-analytical model that considers the main energy sources of the rings and their average properties (e.g., optical depth, particle size range and vertical distribution). In order to deal with the shadowing at specific geometries, the model uses the ray-tracing technique. The goal is to describe the ring temperatures observed by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer, CIRS, onboard the Cassini spacecraft, which is in orbit around Saturn since 2004. So far, the model is able to reproduce some of the general features of specific regions of the A, B and C rings.

Temperature dependency of the thermal conductivity of porous heat storage media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hailemariam, Henok; Wuttke, Frank

2018-04-01

Analyzing the variation of thermal conductivity with temperature is vital in the design and assessment of the efficiency of sensible heat storage systems. In this study, the temperature variation of the thermal conductivity of a commercial cement-based porous heat storage material named - Füllbinder L is analyzed in saturated condition in the temperature range between 20 to 70°C (water based storage) with a steady state thermal conductivity and diffusivity meter. A considerable decrease in the thermal conductivity of the saturated sensible heat storage material upon increase in temperature is obtained, resulting in a significant loss of system efficiency and slower loading/un-loading rates, which when unaccounted for can lead to the under-designing of such systems. Furthermore, a new empirical prediction model for the estimation of thermal conductivity of cement-based porous sensible heat storage materials and naturally occurring crystalline rock formations as a function of temperature is proposed. The results of the model prediction are compared with the experimental results with satisfactory results.

Measurement of density and temperature in a hypersonic turbulent boundary layer using the electron beam fluorescence technique. Ph.D. Thesis. Final Report, 1 Oct. 1969 - 1 Sep. 1972

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcronald, A. D.

1975-01-01

Mean density and temperature fluctuations were measured across the turbulent, cooled-wall boundary layer in a continuous hypersonic (Mach 9.4) wind tunnel in air, using the nitrogen fluorescence excited by a 50 kV electron beam. Data were taken at three values of the tunnel stagnation pressure, the corresponding free stream densities being equivalent to 1.2, 4.0, and 7.4 torr at room temperature, and the boundary layer thicknesses about 4.0, 4.5, and 6.0 inches. The mean temperature and density profiles were similar to those previously determined in the same facility by conventional probes (static and pitot pressure, total temperature). A static pressure variation of about 50% across the boundary layer was found, the shape of the variation changing somewhat for the three stagnation pressure levels. The quadrupole model for rotational temperature spectra gave closer agreement with the free stream isentropic level (approximately 44 K) than the dipole model.

Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd.

PubMed

Gautam, Raju; Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Neill, William H; Döpfer, Dörte; Kaspar, Charles; Ivanek, Renata

2011-10-01

To explore the potential role of ambient temperature on infection transmission dynamics for pathogens, we used Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd and the surrounding farm environment as a model system. For this system, we developed a mathematical model in which a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model of infection spread through the host population is coupled with a metapopulation model of E. coli O157:H7 free-living stage in the environment allowing bacterial growth to be influenced by ambient temperature. Model results indicate that seasonal variation in ambient temperature could have a considerable impact on pathogen populations in the environment, specifically on barn surfaces and in water troughs, and consequently on the prevalence of infection in the host population. Based on model assumptions, contaminated drinking water was the most important pathway of E. coli O157:H7 transmission to cattle. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water-borne transmission is amplified during the warmer months if the amount of standing drinking water available to the cattle herd is high. This is because warmer ambient temperature favors faster pathogen replication which when combined with slower water replacement-rate due to high amount of available standing water leads to a greater pathogen load in drinking water. These results offer a possible explanation of the seasonal variation in E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in cattle and suggest that improved drinking-water management could be used for control of this infection in cattle. Our study demonstrates how consideration of ambient temperature in transmission cycles of pathogens able to survive and grow in the environment outside the host could offer novel perspectives on the spread and control of infections caused by such pathogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

2014-01-01

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

A flamelet model for supersonic non-premixed combustion with pressure variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guo-Yan; Sun, Ming-Bo; Wu, Jin-Shui; Wang, Hong-Bo

2015-08-01

A modified flamelet model is proposed for studying supersonic combustion with pressure variation considering that pressure is far from homogenous in a supersonic combustor. In this model, the flamelet database are tabulated at a reference pressure, while quantities at other pressure are obtained using a sixth-order polynomial in pressure. Attributed to merit of the modified model which compute coefficients for the expansion only. And they brought less requirements for memory and table lookup time, expensive cost is avoided. The performance of modified model is much better than the approach of using a flamelet model-based method with tabulation at different pressure values. Two types of hydrogen fueled scramjet combustors were introduced to validate the modified flamelet model. It was observed that the temperature is sensitive to the choice of model in combustion area, which in return will significantly affect the pressure. It was found that the results of modified model were in good agreement with the experimental data compared with the isobaric flamelet model, especially for temperature, whose value is more accurately predicted. It is concluded that the modified flamelet model was more effective for cases with a wide range of pressure variation.

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Graham, D.; Torn, M. S.

2017-12-01

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.

Application of satellite data in variational analysis for global cyclonic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, G. L.

1987-01-01

The research goal was a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. This presents a formidable mathematical problem. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity are defined. Each model is summarized.

Mesospheric effects of solar ultraviolet variations - Further analysis of SME IR ozone and Nimbus 7 SAMS temperature data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, L. L.; Huang, Z.; Bougher, S. W.

1991-07-01

In order to improve the constraints on models of the mesospheric response to solar UV variations, an analysis is conducted of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) IR ozone data and Nimbus 7 stratosphere and mesosphere sounder (SAMS) temperature data. Maximum low-altitude ozone and temperature-response amplitudes occur at about the same altitude, where a strong coupling between photochemical and thermal components of the mesospheric response is suggested by the simultaneous positive temperature and negative ozone response maxima. Increased Lyman-alpha dissociation of water vapor and temperature feedback are theorized to account for the negative ozone response. HO(x) chemical heating can increase as ozone destruction increases, and can therefore account for the positive temperature response.

Mesospheric effects of solar ultraviolet variations - Further analysis of SME IR ozone and Nimbus 7 SAMS temperature data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hood, L. L.; Huang, Z.; Bougher, S. W.

1991-01-01

In order to improve the constraints on models of the mesospheric response to solar UV variations, an analysis is conducted of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) IR ozone data and Nimbus 7 stratosphere and mesosphere sounder (SAMS) temperature data. Maximum low-altitude ozone and temperature-response amplitudes occur at about the same altitude, where a strong coupling between photochemical and thermal components of the mesospheric response is suggested by the simultaneous positive temperature and negative ozone response maxima. Increased Lyman-alpha dissociation of water vapor and temperature feedback are theorized to account for the negative ozone response. HO(x) chemical heating can increase as ozone destruction increases, and can therefore account for the positive temperature response.

Mass and heat transfer model of Tubular Solar Still

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahsan, Amimul; Fukuhara, Teruyuki

2010-07-15

In this paper, a new mass and heat transfer model of a Tubular Solar Still (TSS) was proposed incorporating various mass and heat transfer coefficients taking account of the humid air properties inside the still. The heat balance of the humid air and the mass balance of the water vapor in the humid air were formulized for the first time. As a result, the proposed model enabled to calculate the diurnal variations of the temperature, water vapor density and relative humidity of the humid air, and to predict the hourly condensation flux besides the temperatures of the water, cover andmore » trough, and the hourly evaporation flux. The validity of the proposed model was verified using the field experimental results carried out in Fukui, Japan and Muscat, Oman in 2008. The diurnal variations of the calculated temperatures and water vapor densities had a good agreement with the observed ones. Furthermore, the proposed model can predict the daily and hourly production flux precisely. (author)« less

Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

PubMed

Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2015-04-01

Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A phenomenological force model of Li-ion battery packs for enhanced performance and health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Ki-Yong; Epureanu, Bogdan I.

2017-10-01

A 1-D phenomenological force model of a Li-ion battery pack is proposed to enhance the control performance of Li-ion battery cells in pack conditions for efficient performance and health management. The force model accounts for multiple swelling sources under the operational environment of electric vehicles to predict swelling-induced forces in pack conditions, i.e. mechanically constrained. The proposed force model not only incorporates structural nonlinearities due to Li-ion intercalation swelling, but also separates the overall range of states of charge into three ranges to account for phase transitions. Moreover, an approach to study cell-to-cell variations in pack conditions is proposed with serial and parallel combinations of linear and nonlinear stiffness, which account for battery cells and other components in the battery pack. The model is shown not only to accurately estimate the reaction force caused by swelling as a function of the state of charge, battery temperature and environmental temperature, but also to account for cell-to-cell variations due to temperature variations, SOC differences, and local degradation in a wide range of operational conditions of electric vehicles. Considering that the force model of Li-ion battery packs can account for many possible situations in actual operation, the proposed approach and model offer potential utility for the enhancement of current battery management systems and power management strategies.

Model for energy transfer in the solar wind: Model results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, A. A., Jr.; Hartle, R. E.

1972-01-01

A description is given of the results of solar wind flow in which the heating is due to (1) propagation and dissipation of hydromagnetic waves generated near the base of the wind, and (2) thermal conduction. A series of models is generated for fixed values of density, electron and proton temperature, and magnetic field at the base by varying the wave intensity at the base of the model. This series of models predicts the observed correlation between flow speed and proton temperature for a large range of velocities. The wave heating takes place in a shell about the sun greater than or approximately equal to 10 R thick. We conclude that large-scale variations observed in the solar wind are probably due mainly to variation in the hydromagnetic wave flux near the sun.

Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickler, Carolyne; Gurza Fausto, Edmundo; Beltrami, Hugo; Mareschal, Jean-Claude; Suárez, Francisco; Chacon-Oecklers, Arlette; Blin, Nicole; Cortés Calderón, Maria Teresa; Montenegro, Alvaro; Harris, Rob; Tassara, Andres

2018-04-01

We have compiled, collected, and analyzed 31 temperature-depth profiles from boreholes in the Atacama Desert in central and northern Chile. After screening these profiles, we found that only nine profiles at four different sites were suitable to invert for ground temperature history. For all the sites, no surface temperature variations could be resolved for the period 1500-1800. In the northern coastal region of Chile, there is no perceptible temperature variation at all from 1500 to present. In the northern central Chile region, between 26 and 28° S, the data suggest a cooling from ≈ 1850 to ≈ 1980 followed by a 1.9 K warming starting ≈ 20-40 years BP. This result is consistent with the ground surface temperature histories for Peru and the semiarid regions of South America. The duration of the cooling trend is poorly resolved and it may coincide with a marked short cooling interval in the 1960s that is found in meteorological records. The total warming is greater than that inferred from proxy climate reconstructions for central Chile and southern South America, and by the PMIP3-CMIP5 surface temperature simulations for the north-central Chile grid points. The differences among different climate reconstructions, meteorological records, and models are likely due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution among the various data sets and the models.

"Magnetic" termite mound surfaces are oriented to suit wind and shade conditions.

PubMed

Jacklyn, Peter M

1992-09-01

The termites Amitermes meridionalis and A. laurensis construct remarkable meridional or "magnetic" mounds in northern Australia. These mounds vary geographically in mean orientation in a manner that suggests such variation is an adaptive response to local environmental conditions. Theoretical modelling of solar irradiance and mound rotation experiments show that maintenance of an eastern face temperature plateau during the dry season is the most likely physical basis for the mound orientation response. Subsequent heat transfer analysis shows that habitat wind speed and shading conditions also affect face temperature gradients such as the rate of eastern face temperature change. It is then demonstrated that the geographic variation in mean mound orientation follows the geographic variation in long-term wind speed and shading conditions across northern Australia such that an eastern face temperature plateau is maintained in all locations.

Modeling and Compensating Temperature-Dependent Non-Uniformity Noise in IR Microbolometer Cameras

PubMed Central

Wolf, Alejandro; Pezoa, Jorge E.; Figueroa, Miguel

2016-01-01

Images rendered by uncooled microbolometer-based infrared (IR) cameras are severely degraded by the spatial non-uniformity (NU) noise. The NU noise imposes a fixed-pattern over the true images, and the intensity of the pattern changes with time due to the temperature instability of such cameras. In this paper, we present a novel model and a compensation algorithm for the spatial NU noise and its temperature-dependent variations. The model separates the NU noise into two components: a constant term, which corresponds to a set of NU parameters determining the spatial structure of the noise, and a dynamic term, which scales linearly with the fluctuations of the temperature surrounding the array of microbolometers. We use a black-body radiator and samples of the temperature surrounding the IR array to offline characterize both the constant and the temperature-dependent NU noise parameters. Next, the temperature-dependent variations are estimated online using both a spatially uniform Hammerstein-Wiener estimator and a pixelwise least mean squares (LMS) estimator. We compensate for the NU noise in IR images from two long-wave IR cameras. Results show an excellent NU correction performance and a root mean square error of less than 0.25 ∘C, when the array’s temperature varies by approximately 15 ∘C. PMID:27447637

A Model for Determining Strength for Embedded Elliptical Crack in Ultra-high-temperature Ceramics

PubMed Central

Wang, Ruzhuan; Li, Weiguo

2015-01-01

A fracture strength model applied at room temperature for embedded elliptical crack in brittle solid was obtained. With further research on the effects of various physical mechanisms on material strength, a thermo-damage strength model for ultra-high-temperature ceramics was applied to each temperature phase. Fracture strength of TiC and the changing trends with elliptical crack shape variations under different temperatures were studied. The study showed that under low temperature, the strength is sensitive to the crack shape variation; as the temperature increases, the sensitivities become smaller. The size of ellipse’s minor axes has great effect on the material strength when the ratio of ellipse’s minor and major axes is lower than 0.5, even under relatively high temperatures. The effect of the minor axes of added particle on material properties thus should be considered under this condition. As the crack area is set, the fracture strength decreases firstly and then increases with the increase of ratio of ellipse’s minor and major axes, and the turning point is 0.5. It suggests that for the added particles the ratio of ellipse’s minor and major axes should not be 0.5. All conclusions significantly coincided with the results obtained by using the finite element software ABAQUS. PMID:28793488

A Model for Determining Strength for Embedded Elliptical Crack in Ultra-high-temperature Ceramics.

PubMed

Wang, Ruzhuan; Li, Weiguo

2015-08-05

A fracture strength model applied at room temperature for embedded elliptical crack in brittle solid was obtained. With further research on the effects of various physical mechanisms on material strength, a thermo-damage strength model for ultra-high-temperature ceramics was applied to each temperature phase. Fracture strength of TiC and the changing trends with elliptical crack shape variations under different temperatures were studied. The study showed that under low temperature, the strength is sensitive to the crack shape variation; as the temperature increases, the sensitivities become smaller. The size of ellipse's minor axes has great effect on the material strength when the ratio of ellipse's minor and major axes is lower than 0.5, even under relatively high temperatures. The effect of the minor axes of added particle on material properties thus should be considered under this condition. As the crack area is set, the fracture strength decreases firstly and then increases with the increase of ratio of ellipse's minor and major axes, and the turning point is 0.5. It suggests that for the added particles the ratio of ellipse's minor and major axes should not be 0.5. All conclusions significantly coincided with the results obtained by using the finite element software ABAQUS.

Mantle thermal history during supercontinent assembly and breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudolph, M. L.; Zhong, S.

2013-12-01

We use mantle convection simulations driven by plate motion boundary conditions to investigate changes in mantle temperature through time. It has been suggested that circum-Pangean subduction prevented convective thermal mixing between sub-continental and sub-oceanic regions. We performed thermo-chemical simulations of mantle convection with velocity boundary conditions based on plate motions for the past 450 Myr using Earth-like Rayleigh number and ~60% internal heating using three different plate motion models for the last 200 Myr [Lithgow-Bertelloni and Richards 1998; Gurnis et al. 2012; Seton et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2010]. We quantified changes in upper-mantle temperature between 200-1000 km depth beneath continents (defined as the oldest 30% of Earth's surface) and beneath oceans. Sub-continental upper mantle temperature was relatively stable and high between 330 and 220 Ma, coincident with the existence of the supercontinent Pangea. The average sub-continental temperature during this period was, however, only ~10 K greater than during the preceding 100 Myr. In the ~200 Myr since the breakup of Pangea, sub-continental temperatures have decreased only ~15 K in excess of the 0.02 K/Myr secular cooling present in our models. Sub-oceanic upper mantle temperatures did not vary more than 5 K between 400 and 200 Ma and the cooling trend following Pangea breakup is less pronounced. Recent geochemical observations imply rapid upper mantle cooling of O(10^2) K during continental breakup; our models do not produce warming of this magnitude beneath Pangea or cooling of similar magnitude associated with the breakup of Pangea. Our models differ from those that produce strong sub-continental heating in that the circum-Pangean subduction curtain does not completely inhibit mixing between the sub-continental and sub-oceanic regions and we include significant internal heating, which limits the rate of temperature increase. Heat transport in our simulations is controlled to first order by plate motions. Most of the temporal variability in surface heat flow is driven by variations in seafloor spreading rate and the accompanying changes in slab velocities dominate variations in buoyancy flux at all mantle depths. Variations in plume buoyancy flux are small but are correlated with the slab buoyancy flux variations.

Influence of smooth temperature variation on hotspot ignition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinbacher, Fynn; Regele, Jonathan David

2018-01-01

Autoignition in thermally stratified reactive mixtures originates in localised hotspots. The ignition behaviour is often characterised using linear temperature gradients and more recently constant temperature plateaus combined with temperature gradients. Acoustic timescale characterisation of plateau regions has been successfully used to characterise the type of mechanical disturbance that will be created from a plateau core ignition. This work combines linear temperature gradients with superelliptic cores in order to more accurately account for a local temperature maximum of finite size and the smooth temperature variation contained inside realistic hotspot centres. A one-step Arrhenius reaction is used to model a H2-air reactive mixture. Using the superelliptic approach a range of behaviours for temperature distributions are investigated by varying the temperature profile between the gradient only and plateau and gradient bounding cases. Each superelliptic case is compared to a respective plateau and gradient case where simple acoustic timescale characterisation may be performed. It is shown that hot spots equivalent with excitation-to-acoustic timescale ratios sufficiently greater than unity exhibit behaviour very similar to a simple plateau-gradient model. However, for larger hot spots with timescale ratios sufficiently less than unity the reaction behaviour is highly dependent on the smooth temperature profile contained within the core region.

Barotropic instability with divergence - Theory and applications to Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dobrovolskis, Anthony R.; Diner, David J.

1990-01-01

IR images of Venus reveal a curious double-lobed hot spot in the polar region. Elson (1982) has suggested that this dipole represents a barotropic instability associated with a high-latitude jet. Unfortunately, the classical theory of barotropic instability cannot predict temperature variations. This paper generalizes the theory to include horizontal divergence, vertical motions, and temperature variations, and applies it to the stratosphere of Venus. The fastest-growing barotropic instability in the nominal model matches the observed dipole in period and horizontal temperature pattern. The accompanying wind variations are comparable to the speed of the mean jet, indicating strong nonlinear effects. It is concluded that the Venus dipole may represent the self-limited stage of a barotropic instability with divergence.

Temperature variation and distribution of living cells within tree stems: implications for stem respiration modeling and scale-up.

PubMed

Stockfors, J

2000-09-01

Few studies have examined variation in respiration rates within trees, and even fewer studies have focused on variation caused by within-stem temperature differences. In this study, stem temperatures at 40 positions in the stem of one 30-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) were measured during 40 days between July 1994 and June 1995. The temperature data were used to simulate variations in respiration rate within the stem. The simulations assumed that the temperature-respiration relationship was constant (Q10 = 2) for all days and all stem positions. Total respiration for the whole stem was calculated by interpolating the temperature between the thermocouples and integrating the respiration rates in three dimensions. Total respiration rate of the stem was then compared to respiration rate scaled up from horizontal planes at the thermocouple heights (40, 140, 240 and 340 cm) on a surface area and on a sapwood volume basis. Simulations were made for three distributions of living cells in the stems: one with a constant 5% fraction of living cells, disregarding depth into the stem; one with a living cell fraction decreasing linearly with depth into the stem; and one with an exponentially decreasing fraction of living cells. Mean temperature variation within the stem was 3.7 degrees C, and was more than 10 degrees C for 8% of the time. The maximum measured temperature difference was 21.5 degrees C. The corresponding mean variation in respiration was 35% and was more than 50% for 24% of the time. Scaling up respiration rates from different heights between 40 and 240 cm to the whole stem produced an error of 2 to 58% for the whole year. For a single sunny day, the error was between 2 and 72%. Thus, within-stem variations in temperature may significantly affect the accuracy of scaling respiration data obtained from small samples to whole trees. A careful choice of chamber position and basis for scaling is necessary to minimize errors from variation in temperature.

Coupled Long-Term Simulation of Reach-Scale Water and Heat Fluxes Across the River-Groundwater Interface for Retrieving Hyporheic Residence Times and Temperature Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munz, Matthias; Oswald, Sascha E.; Schmidt, Christian

2017-11-01

Flow patterns in conjunction with seasonal and diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many temperature-sensitive microbial processes. In this study, we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high-resolution observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures to quantify reach-scale water and heat flux across the river-groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel bed river. The model was calibrated in order to constrain estimates of the most sensitive model parameters. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7°C and an average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.87. Our results indicate that nonsubmerged streambed structures such as gravel bars cause substantial thermal heterogeneity within the saturated sediment at the reach scale. Individual hyporheic flow path temperatures strongly depend on the flow path residence time, flow path depth, river, and groundwater temperature. Variations in individual hyporheic flow path temperatures were up to 7.9°C, significantly higher than the daily average (2.8°C), but still lower than the average seasonal hyporheic temperature difference (19.2°C). The distribution between flow path temperatures and residence times follows a power law relationship with exponent of about 0.37. Based on this empirical relation, we further estimated the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on oxygen consumption which was found to partly increase by up to 29% in simulations.

Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007).

PubMed

Chou, Wei-Chun; Wu, Jiunn-Lin; Wang, Yu-Chun; Huang, Hsin; Sung, Fung-Chang; Chuang, Chun-Yu

2010-12-01

Diarrhea is an important public health problem in Taiwan. Climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events (extreme heat, drought or rainfalls) have been strongly linked to the incidence of diarrhea-associated disease. This study investigated and quantified the relationship between climate variations and diarrhea-associated morbidity in subtropical Taiwan. Specifically, this study analyzed the local climatic variables and the number of diarrhea-associated infection cases from 1996 to 2007. This study applied a climate variation-guided Poisson regression model to predict the dynamics of diarrhea-associated morbidity. The proposed model allows for climate factors (relative humidity, maximum temperature and the numbers of extreme rainfall), autoregression, long-term trends and seasonality, and a lag-time effect. Results indicated that the maximum temperature and extreme rainfall days were strongly related to diarrhea-associated morbidity. The impact of maximum temperature on diarrhea-associated morbidity appeared primarily among children (0-14years) and older adults (40-64years), and had less of an effect on adults (15-39years). Otherwise, relative humidity and extreme rainfall days significantly contributed to the diarrhea-associated morbidity in adult. This suggested that children and older adults were the most susceptible to diarrhea-associated morbidity caused by climatic variation. Because climatic variation contributed to diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan, it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prediction of sea-surface temperature variations by means of an advective mixed-layer ocean model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R. M.

1976-01-01

An advective mixed layer ocean model was developed by eliminating the assumption of horizontal homogeneity in an already existing mixed layer model, and then superimposing a mean and anomalous wind driven current field. This model is based on the principle of conservation of heat and mechanical energy and utilizes a box grid for the advective part of the calculation. Three phases of experiments were conducted: evaluation of the model's ability to account for climatological sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the cooling and heating seasons, sensitivity tests in which the effect of hypothetical anomalous winds was evaluated, and a thirty-day synoptic calculation using the model. For the case studied, the accuracy of the predictions was improved by the inclusion of advection, although nonadvective effects appear to have dominated.

Influence of temperature on Cole-Cole dielectric model of oil-immersed bushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Chen, X. J.; Xu, X. W.; Liu, G. Q.; Zou, D. X.; Liu, W. D.

2017-07-01

In this paper, 72.5 kV oil-immersed bushing was produced in laboratory. The frequency-domain dielectric response tests of oil-immersed bushings were carried out at different test temperatures. The experimental data were fitted by using the modified double relaxation Cole-Cole dielectric model. The influence of temperature variation on the dielectric response test of the oil-immersed bushing and the Cole-Cole dielectric model parameters were analysed. The results showed that with the increase of the test temperature, the spectrum of the real and imaginary of the complex permittivity are shifted to the high frequency direction; the parameters of the dielectric model are significantly affected by temperature.

Diurnal Temperature Variations Affect Development of a Herbivorous Arthropod Pest and its Predators

PubMed Central

Vangansbeke, Dominiek; Audenaert, Joachim; Nguyen, Duc Tung; Verhoeven, Ruth; Gobin, Bruno; Tirry, Luc; De Clercq, Patrick

2015-01-01

The impact of daily temperature variations on arthropod life history remains woefully understudied compared to the large body of research that has been carried out on the effects of constant temperatures. However, diurnal varying temperature regimes more commonly represent the environment in which most organisms thrive. Such varying temperature regimes have been demonstrated to substantially affect development and reproduction of ectothermic organisms, generally in accordance with Jensen’s inequality. In the present study we evaluated the impact of temperature alternations at 4 amplitudes (DTR0, +5, +10 and +15°C) on the developmental rate of the predatory mites Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot and Neoseiulus californicus McGregor (Acari: Phytoseiidae) and their natural prey, the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae). We have modelled their developmental rates as a function of temperature using both linear and nonlinear models. Diurnally alternating temperatures resulted in a faster development in the lower temperature range as compared to their corresponding mean constant temperatures, whereas the opposite was observed in the higher temperature range. Our results indicate that Jensen’s inequality does not suffice to fully explain the differences in developmental rates at constant and alternating temperatures, suggesting additional physiological responses play a role. It is concluded that diurnal temperature range should not be ignored and should be incorporated in predictive models on the phenology of arthropod pests and their natural enemies and their performance in biological control programmes. PMID:25874697

Solar ultraviolet radiation induced variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hood, L. L.

1987-01-01

The detectability and interpretation of short-term solar UV induced responses of middle atmospheric ozone, temperature, and dynamics are reviewed. The detectability of solar UV induced perturbations in the middle atmosphere is studied in terms of seasonal and endogenic dynamical variations. The interpretation of low-latitude ozone and possible temperature responses on the solar rotation time scale is examined. The use of these data to constrain or test photochemical model predictions is discussed.

Climate variations and salmonellosis transmission in Adelaide, South Australia: a comparison between regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Hiller, Janet

2008-01-01

This is the first study to identify appropriate regression models for the association between climate variation and salmonellosis transmission. A comparison between different regression models was conducted using surveillance data in Adelaide, South Australia. By using notified salmonellosis cases and climatic variables from the Adelaide metropolitan area over the period 1990-2003, four regression methods were examined: standard Poisson regression, autoregressive adjusted Poisson regression, multiple linear regression, and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Notified salmonellosis cases in 2004 were used to test the forecasting ability of the four models. Parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit and forecasting ability of the four regression models were compared. Temperatures occurring 2 weeks prior to cases were positively associated with cases of salmonellosis. Rainfall was also inversely related to the number of cases. The comparison of the goodness-of-fit and forecasting ability suggest that the SARIMA model is better than the other three regression models. Temperature and rainfall may be used as climatic predictors of salmonellosis cases in regions with climatic characteristics similar to those of Adelaide. The SARIMA model could, thus, be adopted to quantify the relationship between climate variations and salmonellosis transmission.

Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

PubMed

Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

2017-10-15

The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of surface processes and climate variability on clumped isotope thermometry of soil carbonates, southern Central Andes, Argentina (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntington, K. W.; Peters, N.; Roe, G.; Hoke, G. D.; Eiler, J.

2010-12-01

Soil carbonates archive a potentially rich record of past climate, but rates of pedogenic carbonate formation, erosion, and deposition impact how the isotopic composition and formation temperature of carbonate-bearing paleosols reflect the local environmental conditions under which they form. We investigate these processes using conventional stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and clumped isotope thermometry data for Quaternary pedogenic carbonates from the southern Central Andes at ~33°S, Argentina. The study area spans over 2 km of relief in the Río Mendoza and Río de las Cuevas valleys, accessing a range of mean annual temperature conditions and vegetative cover and exhibiting large seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture. Variations in soil conditions influence carbonate precipitation and dissolution reactions and the rate and depth of pedogenic carbonate formation. Because soil temperature varies predictably as a function of depth in the soil and seasonal and secular variations in air temperature, clumped isotope thermometry of samples collected in soil pits offers a direct way to estimate the seasonality of pedogenic carbonate formation and potential biases in the long-term climate record. We explore potential complications due to the effects of radiative solar heating on the relationship between air and soil temperatures by examining clumped isotope thermometry results in the context of site-to-site variations in vegetative cover. Temperature estimates from clumped isotope thermometry of pedogenic carbonate collected 5-110 cm below geomorphically stable soil surfaces from 1200-3400 m a.s.l. are compared to temperature profiles predicted by simple rule-based models of soil carbonate formation. The models use climate reanalysis daily diagnostic data (soil temperature, soil moisture, and latent heat flux as a proxy for evaporation) and weather station data as input to assess how varying rates of pedogenic carbonate formation integrated over millennial timescales might impact the geologic record of temperature and isotopic composition.

Variational data assimilation problem for the Baltic Sea thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharova, Natalia; Agoshkov, Valery; Parmuzin, Eugene

2015-04-01

The most versatile and promising technology for solving problems of monitoring and analysis of the natural environment is a four-dimensional variational data assimilation of observation data. In such problems not only the development and justification of algorithms for numerical solution of variational data assimilation problems but the properties of the optimal solution play an important role. In this work the variational data assimilation problems in the Baltic Sea water area were formulated and studied. Numerical experiments on restoring the ocean heat flux and obtaining solution of the system (temperature, salinity, velocity, and sea surface height) in the Baltic Sea primitive equation hydrodynamics model with assimilation procedure were carried out. In the calculations we used daily sea surface temperature observation from Danish meteorological Institute, prepared on the basis of measurements of the radiometer (AVHRR, AATSR and AMSRE) and spectroradiometer (SEVIRI and MODIS). The spatial resolution of the model grid with respect to the horizontal variables amounted to 0.0625x0.03125 degree. The results of the numerical experiments are presented. This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 13-01-00753, project 14-01-31195) and project 14-11-00609 by the Russian Science Foundation. References: 1 E.I. Parmuzin, V.I. Agoshkov, Numerical solution of the variational assimilation problem for sea surface temperature in the model of the Black Sea dynamics. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling (2012) 27, No.1, 69-94 2 Zakharova N.B., Agoshkov V.I., Parmuzin E.I., The new method of ARGO buoys system observation data interpolation. Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. Vol. 28, Issue 1, 2013. 3 Zalesny V.B., Gusev A.V., Chernobay S.Yu., Aps R., Tamsalu R., Kujala P., Rytkönen J. The Bal-tic Sea circulation modelling and assessment of marine pollution, Russ. J. Numer. Analysis and Math. Modelling, 2014, V 29, No. 2, pp. 129-138.

Type 2 diabetes, but not obesity, prevalence is positively associated with ambient temperature.

PubMed

Speakman, John R; Heidari-Bakavoli, Sahar

2016-08-01

Cold exposure stimulates energy expenditure and glucose disposal. If these factors play a significant role in whole body energy balance, and glucose homeostasis, it is predicted that both obesity and type 2 diabetes prevalence would be lower where it is colder. Previous studies have noted connections between ambient temperature and obesity, but the direction of the effect is confused. No previous studies have explored the link of type 2 diabetes to ambient temperature. We used county level data for obesity and diabetes prevalence across the mainland USA and matched this to county level ambient temperature data. Average ambient temperature explained 5.7% of the spatial variation in obesity and 29.6% of the spatial variation in type 2 diabetes prevalence. Correcting the type 2 diabetes data for the effect of obesity reduced the explained variation to 26.8%. Even when correcting for obesity, poverty and race, ambient temperature explained 12.4% of the variation in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, and this significant effect remained when latitude was entered into the model as a predictor. When obesity prevalence was corrected for poverty and race the significant effect of temperature disappeared. Enhancing energy expenditure by cold exposure will likely not impact obesity significantly, but may be useful to combat type 2 diabetes.

The response of middle atmospheric ozone to solar UV irradiance variations with a period of 27 days

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, LI; Brasseur, Guy; London, Julius

1994-01-01

A one-dimensional photochemical-dynamical-radiative time-dependent model was used to study the response of middle atmospheric temperature and ozone to solar UV irradiance variations with the period of 27 days. The model solar UV O(x), HO(x), NO(x), and CIO(x)families and modeled solar UV variations. The amplitude of the primary temperature response to the solar UV variation is plus 0.4 K at 85-90 km with a phase lag of about 6 days. A secondary maximum response of plus 0.3 K at 45-50 km appears with a phase lag of 1 day. There is a maximum positive ozone response to the 27-day solar UV oscillation of 2.5 percent at 80-90 km with a phase lag of about 10 days after the solar irradiance maximum. At 70 km the ozone response is about 1.2 percent and is out of phase with the solar variation. In the upper stratosphere (40-50 km) the relative ozone variation is small, about 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent, and there is a negative phase of about 4 days between the ozone and solar oscillations. These oscillations are in phase in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km) where there is again a maximum relative response of about 0.6 percent. The reasons for these ozone amplitude and phase variations are discussed.

Temporal variation of ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen in relation to common model drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, J.; Tuittila, E. S.; Peltola, O.; Li, X.; Raivonen, M.; Alekseychik, P.; Haapanala, S.; Pihlatie, M.; Aurela, M.; Mammarella, I.; Vesala, T.

2017-12-01

Models for calculating methane emission from wetland ecosystems typically relate the methane emission to carbon dioxide assimilation. Other parameters that control emission in these models are e.g. peat temperature and water table position. Many of these relations are derived from spatial variation between chamber measurements by space-for-time approach. Continuous longer term ecosystem scale methane emission measurements by eddy covariance method provide us independent data to assess the validity of the relations derived by space-for-time approach.We have analyzed eleven-year methane flux data-set, measured at a boreal fen, together with data on environmental parameters and carbon dioxide exchange to assess the relations to typical model drivers. The data was obtained by the eddy covariance method at Siikaneva mire complex, Southern Finland, during 2005-2015. The methane flux showed seasonal cycles in methane emission, with strongest correlation with peat temperature at 35 cm depth. The temperature relation was exponential throughout the whole peat temperature range of 0-16°C. The methane emission normalized to remove temperature dependence showed a non-monotonous relation on water table and positive correlation with gross primary production (GPP). However, inclusion of these as explaining variables improved algorithm-measurement correlation only slightly, with r2=0.74 for exponential temperature dependent algorithm, r2=0.76 for temperature - water table algorithm, and r2=0.79 for temperature - GPP algorithm. The methane emission lagged behind net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and GPP by two to three weeks. Annual methane emission ranged from 8.3 to 14 gC m-2, and was 20 % of NEE and 2.8 % of GPP. The inter-annual variation of methane emission was of similar magnitude as that of GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco), but much smaller than that of NEE. The interannual variability of June-September average methane emission correlated significantly with that of GPP indicating a close link between these two processes in boreal fen ecosystems.

A Stab in the Dark?: A Research Note on Temporal Patterns of Street Robbery.

PubMed

Tompson, Lisa; Bowers, Kate

2013-11-01

Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature. Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year. Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models. Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

Prediction of air temperature for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianhua

2008-11-01

Six models for determining air temperatures for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags were reviewed. These models were based on distinctive metabolic rates and mean skin temperatures. All model predictions of air temperatures are low when the insulation values of the sleeping bag are high. Nevertheless, prediction variations are greatest for the sleeping bags with high insulation values, and there is a high risk of hypothermia if an inappropriate sleeping bag is chosen for the intended conditions of use. There is, therefore, a pressing need to validate the models by wear trial and determine which one best reflects ordinary consumer needs.

Prediction of air temperature for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags: a review.

PubMed

Huang, Jianhua

2008-11-01

Six models for determining air temperatures for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags were reviewed. These models were based on distinctive metabolic rates and mean skin temperatures. All model predictions of air temperatures are low when the insulation values of the sleeping bag are high. Nevertheless, prediction variations are greatest for the sleeping bags with high insulation values, and there is a high risk of hypothermia if an inappropriate sleeping bag is chosen for the intended conditions of use. There is, therefore, a pressing need to validate the models by wear trial and determine which one best reflects ordinary consumer needs.

Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jian; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Zhiwei; Wu, Jinju; Wang, Xu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui; Su, Hong

2016-06-01

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.

Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China.

PubMed

Cheng, Jian; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Zhiwei; Wu, Jinju; Wang, Xu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui; Su, Hong

2016-06-01

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.

Density, temperature, and composition of the North American lithosphere—New insights from a joint analysis of seismic, gravity, and mineral physics data: 2. Thermal and compositional model of the upper mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Mooney, Walter D.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

2014-12-01

Temperature and compositional variations of the North American (NA) lithospheric mantle are estimated using a new inversion technique introduced in Part 1, which allows us to jointly interpret seismic tomography and gravity data, taking into account depletion of the lithospheric mantle beneath the cratonic regions. The technique is tested using two tomography models (NA07 and SL2013sv) and different lithospheric density models. The first density model (Model I) reproduces the typical compositionally stratified lithospheric mantle, which is consistent with xenolith samples from the central Slave craton, while the second one (Model II) is based on the direct inversion of the residual gravity and residual topography. The results obtained, both in terms of temperature and composition, are more strongly influenced by the input models derived from seismic tomography, rather than by the choice of lithospheric density Model I versus Model II. The final temperatures estimated in the Archean lithospheric root are up to 150°C higher than in the initial thermal models obtained using a laterally and vertically uniform "fertile" compositional model and are in agreement with temperatures derived from xenolith data. Therefore, the effect of the compositional variations cannot be neglected when temperatures of the cratonic lithospheric mantle are estimated. Strong negative compositional density anomalies (<-0.03 g/cm3), corresponding to Mg # (100 × Mg/(Mg + Fe)) >92, characterize the lithospheric mantle of the northwestern part of the Superior craton and the central part of the Slave and Churchill craton, according to both tomographic models. The largest discrepancies between the results based on different tomography models are observed in the Proterozoic regions, such as the Trans Hudson Orogen (THO), Rocky Mountains, and Colorado Plateau, which appear weakly depleted (>-0.025 g/cm3 corresponding to Mg # ˜91) when model NA07 is used, or locally characterized by high-density bodies when model SL2013sv is used. The former results are in agreement with those based on the interpretation of xenolith data. The high-density bodies might be interpreted as fragments of subducted slabs or of the advection of the lithospheric mantle induced from the eastward-directed flat slab subduction. The selection of a seismic tomography model plays a significant role when estimating lithospheric density, temperature, and compositional heterogeneity. The consideration of the results of more than one model gives a more complete picture of the possible compositional variations within the NA lithospheric mantle.

Numerical modeling of ultrasonic cavitation in ionic liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvisi, Michael L.; Elder, Ross M.

2017-11-01

Ionic liquids have favorable properties for sonochemistry applications in which the high temperatures and pressures achieved by cavitation bubbles are important drivers of chemical processes. Two different numerical models are presented to simulate ultrasonic cavitation in ionic liquids, each with different capabilities and physical assumptions. A model based on a compressible form of the Rayleigh-Plesset equation (RPE) simulates ultrasonic cavitation of a spherical bubble with a homogeneous interior, incorporating evaporation and condensation at the bubble surface, and temperature-varying thermodynamic properties in the interior. A second, more computationally intensive model of a spherical bubble uses the finite element method (FEM) and accounts for spatial variations in pressure and temperature throughout the flow domain. This model provides insight into heat transfer across the bubble surface and throughout the bubble interior and exterior. Parametric studies are presented for sonochemistry applications involving ionic liquids as a solvent, examining a range of realistic ionic liquid properties and initial conditions to determine their effect on temperature and pressure. Results from the two models are presented for parametric variations including viscosity, thermal conductivity, water content of the ionic liquid solvent, acoustic frequency, and initial bubble pressure. An additional study performed with the FEM model examines thermal penetration into the surrounding ionic liquid during bubble oscillation. The results suggest the prospect of tuning ionic liquid properties for specific applications.

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Modification of Soil Temperature and Moisture Budgets by Snow Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2006-12-01

Snow cover significantly influences the land surface energy and surface moisture budgets. Snow thermally insulates the soil column from large and rapid temperature fluctuations, and snow melting provides an important source for surface runoff and soil moisture. Therefore, it is important to accurately understand and predict the energy and moisture exchange between surface and subsurface associated with snow accumulation and ablation. The objective of this study is to understand the impact of land surface model soil layering treatment on the realistic simulation of soil temperature and soil moisture. We seek to understand how many soil layers are required to fully take into account soil thermodynamic properties and hydrological process while also honoring efficient calculation and inexpensive computation? This work attempts to address this question using field measurements from the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). In addition, to gain a better understanding of surface heat and surface moisture transfer process between land surface and deep soil involved in snow processes, numerical simulations were performed at several Meso-Cell Study Areas (MSAs) of CLPX using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) Simplified Version of the Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB). Measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture were analyzed at several CLPX sites with different vegetation and soil features. The monthly mean vertical profile of soil temperature during October 2002 to July 2003 at North Park Illinois River exhibits a large near surface variation (<5 cm), reveals a significant transition zone from 5 cm to 25 cm, and becomes uniform beyond 25cm. This result shows us that three soil layers are reasonable in solving the vertical variation of soil temperature at these study sites. With 6 soil layers, SSiB also captures the vertical variation of soil temperature during entire winter season, featuring with six soil layers, but the bare soil temperature is underestimated and root-zone soil temperature is overestimated during snow melting; which leads to overestimated temperature variations down to 20 cm. This is caused by extra heat loss from upper soil level and insufficient heat transport from the deep soil. Further work will need to verify if soil temperature displays similar vertical thermal structure for different vegetation and soil types during snow season. This study provides insight to the surface and subsurface thermodynamic and hydrological processes involved in snow modeling which is important for accurate snow simulation.

A model for the temperature and composition effects in the semiannual variations of the thermospheric density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Volland, H.

1971-01-01

A model is proposed in which latitudinal variations in composition and temperature are used to interpret the semiannual effect in the thermospheric density. Two heat sources are postulated for the semiannual circulation: one at high latitudes associated with the semiannual component in the occurance of magnetic storms and a second weaker one that peaks at the equator associated with the semiannual migration between both hemispheres. Depending on the relative magnitude of these sources, the latitude regions in which composition and temperature effects dominate vary. The temperature effects however should be expected weakest at low to mid latitudes where the relative concentration of atomic oxygen is enriched during equinox. At high latitudes the semiannual temperature component would peak, associated with an oxygen depletion in the lower thermosphere during equinox. In combining these features it is shown that the total atmospheric density could still exhibit a relatively small latitude dependence in the semiannual component with the tendency to decrease at high latitudes, in agreement with observations.

A Generalized Multi-Phase Framework for Modeling Cavitation in Cryogenic Fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorney, Dan (Technical Monitor); Hosangadi, Ashvin; Ahuja, Vineet

2003-01-01

A generalized multi-phase formulation for cavitation in fluids operating at temperatures elevated relative to their critical temperatures is presented. The thermal effects and the accompanying property variations due to phase change are modeled rigorously. Thermal equilibrium is assumed and fluid thermodynamic properties are specified along the saturation line using the NIST-12 databank. Fundamental changes in the physical characteristics of the cavity when thermal effects become pronounced are identified; the cavity becomes more porous, the interface less distinct, and has increased entrainment when temperature variations are present. Quantitative estimates of temperature and pressure depressions in both liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen were computed and compared with experimental data of Hord for hydrofoils. Excellent estimates of the leading edge temperature and pressure depression were obtained while the comparisons in the cavity closure region were reasonable. Liquid nitrogen cavities were consistently found to be in thermal equilibrium while liquid hydrogen cavities exhibited small, but distinct, non-equilibrium effects.

Collective thermoregulation in bee clusters

PubMed Central

Ocko, Samuel A.; Mahadevan, L.

2014-01-01

Swarming is an essential part of honeybee behaviour, wherein thousands of bees cling onto each other to form a dense cluster that may be exposed to the environment for several days. This cluster has the ability to maintain its core temperature actively without a central controller. We suggest that the swarm cluster is akin to an active porous structure whose functional requirement is to adjust to outside conditions by varying its porosity to control its core temperature. Using a continuum model that takes the form of a set of advection–diffusion equations for heat transfer in a mobile porous medium, we show that the equalization of an effective ‘behavioural pressure’, which propagates information about the ambient temperature through variations in density, leads to effective thermoregulation. Our model extends and generalizes previous models by focusing the question of mechanism on the form and role of the behavioural pressure, and allows us to explain the vertical asymmetry of the cluster (as a consequence of buoyancy-driven flows), the ability of the cluster to overpack at low ambient temperatures without breaking up at high ambient temperatures, and the relative insensitivity to large variations in the ambient temperature. Our theory also makes testable hypotheses for the response of the cluster to external temperature inhomogeneities and suggests strategies for biomimetic thermoregulation. PMID:24335563

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Combined Sensible/Latent Thermal Energy Storage for High-Temperature Applications.

PubMed

Geissbühler, Lukas; Zavattoni, Simone; Barbato, Maurizio; Zanganeh, Giw; Haselbacher, Andreas; Steinfeld, Aldo

2015-01-01

Combined sensible/latent heat storage allows the heat-transfer fluid outflow temperature during discharging to be stabilized. A lab-scale combined storage consisting of a packed bed of rocks and steel-encapsulated AlSi(12) was investigated experimentally and numerically. Due to the small tank-to-particle diameter ratio of the lab-scale storage, void-fraction variations were not negligible, leading to channeling effects that cannot be resolved in 1D heat-transfer models. The void-fraction variations and channeling effects can be resolved in 2D models of the flow and heat transfer in the storage. The resulting so-called bypass fraction extracted from the 2D model was used in the 1D model and led to good agreement with experimental measurements.

Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia: Impacts of Dust on IAVs of Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lou, Sijia; Russell, Lynn M.; Yang, Yang

We used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leadsmore » to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of large-scale precipitation induced by the feedback of EAWM-related changes in wind on dust emissions increase by 10-30% in winter because of the increase in surface air temperature and the anomalous circulation.« less

Environmental Drivers of Benthic Flux Variation and Ecosystem Functioning in Salish Sea and Northeast Pacific Sediments.

PubMed

Belley, Rénald; Snelgrove, Paul V R; Archambault, Philippe; Juniper, S Kim

2016-01-01

The upwelling of deep waters from the oxygen minimum zone in the Northeast Pacific from the continental slope to the shelf and into the Salish Sea during spring and summer offers a unique opportunity to study ecosystem functioning in the form of benthic fluxes along natural gradients. Using the ROV ROPOS we collected sediment cores from 10 sites in May and July 2011, and September 2013 to perform shipboard incubations and flux measurements. Specifically, we measured benthic fluxes of oxygen and nutrients to evaluate potential environmental drivers of benthic flux variation and ecosystem functioning along natural gradients of temperature and bottom water dissolved oxygen concentrations. The range of temperature and dissolved oxygen encountered across our study sites allowed us to apply a suite of multivariate analyses rarely used in flux studies to identify bottom water temperature as the primary environmental driver of benthic flux variation and organic matter remineralization. Redundancy analysis revealed that bottom water characteristics (temperature and dissolved oxygen), quality of organic matter (chl a:phaeo and C:N ratios) and sediment characteristics (mean grain size and porosity) explained 51.5% of benthic flux variation. Multivariate analyses identified significant spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes, demonstrating key differences between the Northeast Pacific and Salish Sea. Moreover, Northeast Pacific slope fluxes were generally lower than shelf fluxes. Spatial and temporal variation in benthic fluxes in the Salish Sea were driven primarily by differences in temperature and quality of organic matter on the seafloor following phytoplankton blooms. These results demonstrate the utility of multivariate approaches in differentiating among potential drivers of seafloor ecosystem functioning, and indicate that current and future predictive models of organic matter remineralization and ecosystem functioning of soft-muddy shelf and slope seafloor habitats should consider bottom water temperature variation. Bottom temperature has important implications for estimates of seasonal and spatial benthic flux variation, benthic-pelagic coupling, and impacts of predicted ocean warming at high latitudes.

Genetic variation for farrowing rate in pigs in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature.

PubMed

Sevillano, C A; Mulder, H A; Rashidi, H; Mathur, P K; Knol, E F

2016-08-01

Seasonal infertility is often observed as anestrus and a lower conception rate resulting in a reduced farrowing rate (FR) during late summer and early autumn. This is often regarded as an effect of heat stress; however, we observed a reduction in the FR of sows even after correcting for ambient temperature in our data. Therefore, we added change in photoperiod in the analysis of FR considering its effect on sow fertility. Change in photoperiod was modeled using the cosine of the day of first insemination within a year. On an average, the FR decreased by 2% during early autumn with decreasing daily photoperiod compared with early summer with almost no change in daily photoperiod. It declined 0.2% per degree Celsius of ambient temperature above 19.2°C. This result is a step forward in disentangling the 2 environmental components responsible for seasonal infertility. Our next aim was to estimate the magnitude of genetic variation in FR in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature to explore opportunities for selecting pigs to have a constant FR throughout the year. We used reaction norm models to estimate additive genetic variation in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature. The results revealed a larger genetic variation at stressful environments when daily photoperiod decreased and ambient temperatures increased above 19.2°C compared with neutral environments. Genetic correlations between stressful environments and nonstressful environments ranged from 0.90 (±0.03) to 0.46 (±0.13) depending on the severity of the stress, indicating changes in expression of FR depending on the environment. The genetic correlation between responses of pigs to changes in photoperiod and to those in ambient temperature were positive, indicating that pigs tolerant to decreasing daily photoperiod are also tolerant to high ambient temperatures. Therefore, selection for tolerance to decreasing daily photoperiod should also increase tolerance to high ambient temperatures or vice versa.

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. For this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snowmore » and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.« less

Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

2016-03-01

Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p < 0.1) in 53% of the study area, whereas it increased with breakpoints in 2009 (~0.084 K/yr before and ~0.245 K/yr after 2009) between the fifth and sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys : 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

DOE PAGES

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2017-11-17

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. For this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snowmore » and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.« less

Does the hybrid light source (LED/laser) influence temperature variation on the enamel surface during 35% hydrogen peroxide bleaching? A randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

de Freitas, Patricia Moreira; Menezes, Andressa Nery; da Mota, Ana Carolina Costa; Simões, Alyne; Mendes, Fausto Medeiros; Lago, Andrea Dias Neves; Ferreira, Leila Soares; Ramos-Oliveira, Thayanne Monteiro

2016-01-01

The present study investigated how a hybrid light source (LED/laser) influences temperature variation on the enamel surfaces during 35% hydrogen peroxide (HP) bleaching. Effects on the whitening effectiveness and tooth sensitivity were analyzed. Twenty-two volunteers were randomly assigned to two different treatments in a split-mouth experimental model: group 1 (control), 35% HP; group 2 (experimental), 35% HP + LED/laser. Color evaluation was performed before treatment, and 7 and 14 days after completion of bleaching, using a color shade scale. Tooth sensitivity was assessed using a visual analog scale (VAS; before, immediately, and 24 hours after bleaching). During the bleaching treatment, thermocouple channels positioned on the tooth surfaces recorded the temperature. Data on color and temperature changes were subjected to statistical analysis (α = 5%). Tooth sensitivity data were evaluated descriptively. Groups 1 and 2 showed mean temperatures (± standard deviation) of 30.7 ± 1.2 °C and 34.1 ± 1.3 °C, respectively. It was found that there were statistically significant differences between the groups, with group 2 showing higher mean variation (P < .0001). The highest temperature variation occurred for group 2, with an increase of 5.3 °C at the enamel surface. The color change results showed no differences in bleaching between the two treatment groups (P = .177). The variation of the average temperature during the treatments was not statistically associated with color variation (P = .079). Immediately after bleaching, it was found that 36.4% of the subjects in group 2 had mild to moderate sensitivity. In group 1, 45.5% showed moderate sensitivity. In both groups, the sensitivity ceased within 24 hours. Hybrid light source (LED/ laser) influences temperature variation on the enamel surface during 35% HP bleaching and is not related to greater tooth sensitivity.

Effect of temperature variations and thermal noise on the static and dynamic behavior of straintronics devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barangi, Mahmood; Mazumder, Pinaki

2015-11-01

A theoretical model quantifying the effect of temperature variations on the magnetic properties and static and dynamic behavior of the straintronics magnetic tunneling junction is presented. Four common magnetostrictive materials (Nickel, Cobalt, Terfenol-D, and Galfenol) are analyzed to determine their temperature sensitivity and to provide a comprehensive database for different applications. The variations of magnetic anisotropies are studied in detail for temperature levels up to the Curie temperature. The energy barrier of the free layer and the critical voltage required for flipping the magnetization vector are inspected as important metrics that dominate the energy requirements and noise immunity when the device is incorporated into large systems. To study the dynamic thermal noise, the effect of the Langevin thermal field on the free layer's magnetization vector is incorporated into the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation. The switching energy, flipping delay, write, and hold error probabilities are studied, which are important metrics for nonvolatile memories, an important application of the straintronics magnetic tunneling junctions.

Spatial variation of corn canopy temperature as dependent upon soil texture and crop rooting characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1983-01-01

A soil plant atmosphere model for corn (Zea mays L.) together with the scaling theory for soil hydraulic heterogeneity are used to study the sensitivity of spatial variation of canopy temperature to field averaged soil texture and crop rooting characteristics. The soil plant atmosphere model explicitly solves a continuity equation for water flux resulting from root water uptake, changes in plant water storage and transpirational flux. Dynamical equations for root zone soil water potential and the plant water storage models the progressive drying of soil, and day time dehydration and night time hydration of the crop. The statistic of scaling parameter which describes the spatial variation of soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential is assumed to be independent of soil texture class. The field averaged soil hydraulic characteristics are chosen to be representative of loamy sand and clay loam soils. Two rooting characteristics are chosen, one shallow and the other deep rooted. The simulation shows that the range of canopy temperatures in the clayey soil is less than 1K, but for the sandy soil the range is about 2.5 and 5.0 K, respectively, for the shallow and deep rooted crops.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

2017-08-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA

Treesearch

Zachery A. Holden; Michael A. Crimmins; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell

2010-01-01

Accurate, fine spatial resolution predictions of surface air temperatures are critical for understanding many hydrologic and ecological processes. This study examines the spatial and temporal variability in nocturnal air temperatures across a mountainous region of Northern Idaho. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to a network of 70 Hobo temperature...

A New Evaluation Method of Stored Heat Effect of Reinforced Concrete Wall of Cold Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Tomohiro; Murakami, Yuji; Uchikawa, Motoyuki

Today it has become imperative to save energy by operating a refrigerator in a cold storage executed by external insulate reinforced concrete wall intermittently. The theme of the paper is to get the evaluation method to be capable of calculating, numerically, interval time for stopping the refrigerator, in applying reinforced concrete wall as source of stored heat. The experiments with the concrete models were performed in order to examine the time variation of internal temperature after refrigerator stopped. In addition, the simulation method with three dimensional unsteady FEM for personal-computer type was introduced for easily analyzing the internal temperature variation. Using this method, it is possible to obtain the time variation of internal temperature and to calculate the interval time for stopping the refrigerator.

ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

PubMed Central

Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

2015-01-01

Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

The Effect of Temperature on Moisture Transport in Concrete.

PubMed

Wang, Yao; Xi, Yunping

2017-08-09

Most concrete structures and buildings are under temperature and moisture variations simultaneously. Thus, the moisture transport in concrete is driven by the moisture gradient as well as the temperature gradient. This paper presents an experimental approach for determining the effect of different temperature gradients on moisture distribution profiles in concrete. The effect of elevated temperatures under isothermal conditions on the moisture transport was also evaluated, and found not to be significant. The non-isothermal tests show that the temperature gradient accelerates the moisture transport in concrete. The part of increased moisture transfer due to the temperature gradient can be quantified by a coupling parameter D HT , which can be determined by the present test data. The test results indicated that D HT is not a constant but increases linearly with the temperature variation. A material model was developed for D HT based on the experimental results obtained in this study.

The Effect of Temperature on Moisture Transport in Concrete

PubMed Central

Wang, Yao; Xi, Yunping

2017-01-01

Most concrete structures and buildings are under temperature and moisture variations simultaneously. Thus, the moisture transport in concrete is driven by the moisture gradient as well as the temperature gradient. This paper presents an experimental approach for determining the effect of different temperature gradients on moisture distribution profiles in concrete. The effect of elevated temperatures under isothermal conditions on the moisture transport was also evaluated, and found not to be significant. The non-isothermal tests show that the temperature gradient accelerates the moisture transport in concrete. The part of increased moisture transfer due to the temperature gradient can be quantified by a coupling parameter DHT, which can be determined by the present test data. The test results indicated that DHT is not a constant but increases linearly with the temperature variation. A material model was developed for DHT based on the experimental results obtained in this study. PMID:28792460

Soil temperature synchronisation improves estimation of daily variation of ecosystem respiration in Sphagnum peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Angelo, Benoît; Gogo, Sébastien; Le Moing, Franck; Jégou, Fabrice; Guimbaud, Christophe; Laggoun, Fatima

2015-04-01

Ecosystem respiration (ER) is a key process in the global C cycle and thus, plays an important role in the climate regulation. Peatlands contain a third of the world soil C in spite of their relatively low global area (3% of land area). Although these ecosystems represent potentially a significant source of C under global change, they are still not taken into account accordingly in global climatic models. Therefore, ER variations have to be accounted for, especially by estimating its dependence to temperature.s The relationship between ER and temperature often relies only on one soil temperature depth and the latter is generally taken in the first 10 centimetres. Previous studies showed that the temperature dependence of ER depends on the depth at which the temperature is recorded. The depth selection for temperature measurement is thus a predominant issue. A way to deal with this is to analyse the time-delay between ER and temperature. The aim of this work is to assess whether using synchronised data in models leads to a better ER daily variation estimation than using non-synchronised data. ER measurements were undertaken in 2013 in 4 Sphagnum peatlands across France: La Guette (N 47°19'44', E 2°17'04', 154m) in July, Landemarais (N 48°26'30', E -1°10'54', 145m) in August, Frasne (N 46°49'35', E 6°10'20', 836m) in September, and Bernadouze (N 42°48'09', E 1°25'24', 1500m) in October. A closed method chamber was used to measure ER hourly during 72 hours in each of the 4 replicates installed in each site. Average ER ranged from 1.75 μmol m-2 s-1 to 6.13 μmol m-2 s-1. A weather station was used to record meteorological data and soil temperature profiles (5, 10, 20 and 30 cm). Synchronised data were determined for each depth by selecting the time-delay leading to the best correlation between ER and soil temperature. The data were used to simulate ER according to commonly used equations: linear, exponential with Q10, Arrhenius, Lloyd and Taylor. Models comparison was performed using RMSE (goodness-of-fit) and AIC (goodness-of-fit and model complexity) as indicators to assess their relative quality. Both indicators showed a wide variation between sites. However, for each site differences between synchronised and non-synchronised data were larger than the differences between models equations. According to the AIC, models using synchronised data produced better ER estimations than models using non-synchronised data, at all depth. RMSE support this result for all sites for superficial peat layer. In some locations, mainly Frasne, synchronised data at 5 cm depth provide better estimation than air temperature, i.e. 25.0 vs. 26.4 for RMSE and 337.1 vs. 379.8 for AIC, respectively. The equation of the most appropriate model varies between sites, but the differences between them are small. At a daily scale, data synchronisation in Sphagnum peatlands improves ER estimation regardless of the model used. Moreover, to estimate ER flux, the use of synchronised data at 5 cm depth seems the most adequate method.

Mapping malaria incidence distribution that accounts for environmental factors in Maputo Province - Mozambique

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. Methods A Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC. Results For winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23. Conclusions The incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year. PMID:20302674

Isoform switching facilitates period control in the Neurospora crassa circadian clock.

PubMed

Akman, Ozgur E; Locke, James C W; Tang, Sanyi; Carré, Isabelle; Millar, Andrew J; Rand, David A

2008-01-01

A striking and defining feature of circadian clocks is the small variation in period over a physiological range of temperatures. This is referred to as temperature compensation, although recent work has suggested that the variation observed is a specific, adaptive control of period. Moreover, given that many biological rate constants have a Q(10) of around 2, it is remarkable that such clocks remain rhythmic under significant temperature changes. We introduce a new mathematical model for the Neurospora crassa circadian network incorporating experimental work showing that temperature alters the balance of translation between a short and long form of the FREQUENCY (FRQ) protein. This is used to discuss period control and functionality for the Neurospora system. The model reproduces a broad range of key experimental data on temperature dependence and rhythmicity, both in wild-type and mutant strains. We present a simple mechanism utilising the presence of the FRQ isoforms (isoform switching) by which period control could have evolved, and argue that this regulatory structure may also increase the temperature range where the clock is robustly rhythmic.

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted by regression of weather variables. In addition amplitude of spatial variations were most dependent on temperature, north winds, and high level lapse rate and the temporal variations were most dependent on temperature and lapse rates.

Autumn temperature and carbon balance of a boreal Scots pine forest in Southern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesala, T.; Launiainen, S.; Kolari, P.; Pumpanen, J.; Sevanto, S.; Hari, P.; Nikinmaa, E.; Kaski, P.; Mannila, H.; Ukkonen, E.; Piao, S. L.; Ciais, P.

2010-01-01

We analyzed the dynamics of carbon balance components: gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER), of a boreal Scots pine forest in Southern Finland. The main focus is on investigations of environmental drivers of GPP and TER and how they affect the inter-annual variation in the carbon balance in autumn (September-December). We used standard climate data and CO2 exchange measurements collected by the eddy covariance (EC) technique over 11 years. EC data revealed that increasing autumn temperature significantly enhances TER: the temperature sensitivity was 9.5 gC m-2 °C-1 for the period September-October (early autumn when high radiation levels still occur) and 3.8 gC m-2 °C-1 for November-December (late autumn with suppressed radiation level). The cumulative GPP was practically independent of the temperature in early autumn. In late autumn, air temperature could explain part of the variation in GPP but the temperature sensitivity was very weak, less than 1 gC m-2 °C-1. Two models, a stand photosynthesis model (COCA) and a global vegetation model (ORCHIDEE), were used for estimating stand GPP and its sensitivity to the temperature. The ORCHIDEE model was tested against the observations of GPP derived from EC data. The stand photosynthesis model COCA predicted that under a predescribed 3-6 °C temperature increase, the temperature sensitivity of 4-5 gC m-2 °C-1 in GPP may appear in early autumn. The analysis by the ORCHIDEE model revealed the model sensitivity to the temporal treatment of meteorological forcing. The model predictions were similar to observed ones when the site level 1/2-hourly time step was applied, but the results calculated by using daily meteorological forcing, interpolated to 1/2-hourly time step, were biased. This is due to the nonlinear relationship between the processes and the environmental factors.

Modeling temperature entrainment of circadian clocks using the Arrhenius equation and a reconstructed model from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

PubMed

Heiland, Ines; Bodenstein, Christian; Hinze, Thomas; Weisheit, Olga; Ebenhoeh, Oliver; Mittag, Maria; Schuster, Stefan

2012-06-01

Endogenous circadian rhythms allow living organisms to anticipate daily variations in their natural environment. Temperature regulation and entrainment mechanisms of circadian clocks are still poorly understood. To better understand the molecular basis of these processes, we built a mathematical model based on experimental data examining temperature regulation of the circadian RNA-binding protein CHLAMY1 from the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, simulating the effect of temperature on the rates by applying the Arrhenius equation. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate that our model is temperature-compensated and can be entrained to temperature cycles of various length and amplitude. The range of periods that allow entrainment of the model depends on the shape of the temperature cycles and is larger for sinusoidal compared to rectangular temperature curves. We show that the response to temperature of protein (de)phosphorylation rates play a key role in facilitating temperature entrainment of the oscillator in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We systematically investigated the response of our model to single temperature pulses to explain experimentally observed phase response curves.

Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

2015-11-01

Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California locations and increased growth at the Sakhalin, WBS and Togiak locations after 1977. The SO location belonged to the same cluster as the location in with the eastern North Pacific. The calibrated half-saturation coefficients affected the degree to which growth was sensitive to interannual variation in water temperature versus zooplankton. For example, the half-saturation values for the SO location resulted in very efficient feeding that shifted the sensitivity of herring growth from food to temperature. The model results demonstrate how geographic specificity of bioenergetics parameters, coupled with location-specific variation in temperature and food, can combine to determine local and regional responses of fish growth to climate forcing.

A STUDY OF SOLAR PHOTOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT VARIATION USING LIMB DARKENING MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Criscuoli, Serena; Foukal, Peter

2017-01-20

The variation in area of quiet magnetic network measured over the sunspot cycle should modulate the spatially averaged photospheric temperature gradient, since temperature declines with optical depth more gradually in magnetic flux tube atmospheres. Yet, limb darkening measurements show no dependence upon activity level, even at an rms precision of 0.04%. We study the sensitivity of limb darkening to changes in area filling factor using a 3D MHD model of the magnetized photosphere. The limb darkening change expected from the measured 11-year area variation lies below the level of measured limb darkening variations, for a reasonable range of magnetic fluxmore » in quiet network and internetwork regions. So the remarkably constant limb darkening observed over the solar activity cycle is not inconsistent with the measured 11-year change in area of quiet magnetic network. Our findings offer an independent constraint on photospheric temperature gradient changes reported from measurements of the solar spectral irradiance from the Spectral Irradiance Monitor, and recently, from wavelength-differential spectrophotometry using the Solar Optical Telescope aboard the HINODE spacecraft.« less

Exchange of Groundwater and Surface-Water Mediated by Permafrost Response to Seasonal and Long Term Air Temperature Variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, Shemin; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Voss, Clifford; Wu, Qingbai

2011-01-01

Permafrost dynamics impact hydrologic cycle processes by promoting or impeding groundwater and surface water exchange. Under seasonal and decadal air temperature variations, permafrost temperature changes control the exchanges between groundwater and surface water. A coupled heat transport and groundwater flow model, SUTRA, was modified to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in the subsurface containing permafrost. The northern central Tibet Plateau was used as an example of model application. Modeling results show that in a yearly cycle, groundwater flow occurs in the active layer from May to October. Maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags the maximum subsurface temperature by two months. Under an increasing air temperature scenario of 3?C per 100 years, over the initial 40-year period, the active layer thickness can increase by three-fold. Annual groundwater discharge to the surface can experience a similar three-fold increase in the same period. An implication of these modeling results is that with increased warming there will be more groundwater flow in the active layer and therefore increased groundwater discharge to rivers. However, this finding only holds if sufficient upgradient water is available to replenish the increased discharge. Otherwise, there will be an overall lowering of the water table in the recharge portion of the catchment.

Influence of smooth temperature variation on hotspot ignition

DOE PAGES

Reinbacher, Fynn; Regele, Jonathan David

2017-10-06

Autoignition in thermally stratified reactive mixtures originates in localised hotspots. The ignition behaviour is often characterised using linear temperature gradients and more recently constant temperature plateaus combined with temperature gradients. Acoustic timescale characterisation of plateau regions has been successfully used to characterise the type of mechanical disturbance that will be created from a plateau core ignition. This work combines linear temperature gradients with superelliptic cores in order to more accurately account for a local temperature maximum of finite size and the smooth temperature variation contained inside realistic hotspot centres. A one-step Arrhenius reaction is used to model a H 2–airmore » reactive mixture. Using the superelliptic approach a range of behaviours for temperature distributions are investigated by varying the temperature profile between the gradient only and plateau and gradient bounding cases. Each superelliptic case is compared to a respective plateau and gradient case where simple acoustic timescale characterisation may be performed. It is shown that hot spots equivalent with excitation-to-acoustic timescale ratios sufficiently greater than unity exhibit behaviour very similar to a simple plateau-gradient model. Furthermore, for larger hot spots with timescale ratios sufficiently less than unity the reaction behaviour is highly dependent on the smooth temperature profile contained within the core region.« less

Influence of smooth temperature variation on hotspot ignition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reinbacher, Fynn; Regele, Jonathan David

Autoignition in thermally stratified reactive mixtures originates in localised hotspots. The ignition behaviour is often characterised using linear temperature gradients and more recently constant temperature plateaus combined with temperature gradients. Acoustic timescale characterisation of plateau regions has been successfully used to characterise the type of mechanical disturbance that will be created from a plateau core ignition. This work combines linear temperature gradients with superelliptic cores in order to more accurately account for a local temperature maximum of finite size and the smooth temperature variation contained inside realistic hotspot centres. A one-step Arrhenius reaction is used to model a H 2–airmore » reactive mixture. Using the superelliptic approach a range of behaviours for temperature distributions are investigated by varying the temperature profile between the gradient only and plateau and gradient bounding cases. Each superelliptic case is compared to a respective plateau and gradient case where simple acoustic timescale characterisation may be performed. It is shown that hot spots equivalent with excitation-to-acoustic timescale ratios sufficiently greater than unity exhibit behaviour very similar to a simple plateau-gradient model. Furthermore, for larger hot spots with timescale ratios sufficiently less than unity the reaction behaviour is highly dependent on the smooth temperature profile contained within the core region.« less

Thermodynamic and kinetic modeling of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates in low-Cu reactor pressure vessel steels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ke, Huibin; Wells, Peter; Edmondson, Philip D.

Formation of large volume fractions of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates (MNSPs) causes excess irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels at high, extended-life fluences. Thus, a new and unique, semi-empirical cluster dynamics model was developed to study the evolution of MNSPs in low-Cu RPV steels. The model is based on CALPHAD thermodynamics and radiation enhanced diffusion kinetics. The thermodynamics dictates the compositional and temperature dependence of the free energy reductions that drive precipitation. The model treats both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation, where the latter occurs on cascade damage, like dislocation loops. The model has only four adjustable parameters that were fitmore » to an atom probe tomography (APT) database. The model predictions are in semi-quantitative agreement with systematic Mn, Ni and Si composition variations in alloys characterized by APT, including a sensitivity to local tip-to-tip variations even in the same steel. The model predicts that heterogeneous nucleation plays a critical role in MNSP formation in lower alloy Ni contents. Single variable assessments of compositional effects show that Ni plays a dominant role, while even small variations in irradiation temperature can have a large effect on the MNSP evolution. Within typical RPV steel ranges, Mn and Si have smaller effects. Furthermore, the delayed but then rapid growth of MNSPs to large volume fractions at high fluence is well predicted by the model. For purposes of illustration, the effect of MNSPs on transition temperature shifts are presented based on well-established microstructure-property and property-property models.« less

Thermodynamic and kinetic modeling of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates in low-Cu reactor pressure vessel steels

DOE PAGES

Ke, Huibin; Wells, Peter; Edmondson, Philip D.; ...

2017-07-12

Formation of large volume fractions of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates (MNSPs) causes excess irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels at high, extended-life fluences. Thus, a new and unique, semi-empirical cluster dynamics model was developed to study the evolution of MNSPs in low-Cu RPV steels. The model is based on CALPHAD thermodynamics and radiation enhanced diffusion kinetics. The thermodynamics dictates the compositional and temperature dependence of the free energy reductions that drive precipitation. The model treats both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation, where the latter occurs on cascade damage, like dislocation loops. The model has only four adjustable parameters that were fitmore » to an atom probe tomography (APT) database. The model predictions are in semi-quantitative agreement with systematic Mn, Ni and Si composition variations in alloys characterized by APT, including a sensitivity to local tip-to-tip variations even in the same steel. The model predicts that heterogeneous nucleation plays a critical role in MNSP formation in lower alloy Ni contents. Single variable assessments of compositional effects show that Ni plays a dominant role, while even small variations in irradiation temperature can have a large effect on the MNSP evolution. Within typical RPV steel ranges, Mn and Si have smaller effects. Furthermore, the delayed but then rapid growth of MNSPs to large volume fractions at high fluence is well predicted by the model. For purposes of illustration, the effect of MNSPs on transition temperature shifts are presented based on well-established microstructure-property and property-property models.« less

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus)

PubMed Central

Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L.; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W.

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy’s horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency. PMID:29186147

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus).

PubMed

Jacobs, David S; Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency.

Variational data assimilative modeling of the Gulf of Maine in spring and summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yizhen; He, Ruoying; Chen, Ke; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.

2015-05-01

A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine [GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.

Identification and compensation of the temperature influences in a miniature three-axial accelerometer based on the least squares method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigorie, Teodor Lucian; Corcau, Ileana Jenica; Tudosie, Alexandru Nicolae

2017-06-01

The paper presents a way to obtain an intelligent miniaturized three-axial accelerometric sensor, based on the on-line estimation and compensation of the sensor errors generated by the environmental temperature variation. Taking into account that this error's value is a strongly nonlinear complex function of the values of environmental temperature and of the acceleration exciting the sensor, its correction may not be done off-line and it requires the presence of an additional temperature sensor. The proposed identification methodology for the error model is based on the least square method which process off-line the numerical values obtained from the accelerometer experimental testing for different values of acceleration applied to its axes of sensitivity and for different values of operating temperature. A final analysis of the error level after the compensation highlights the best variant for the matrix in the error model. In the sections of the paper are shown the results of the experimental testing of the accelerometer on all the three sensitivity axes, the identification of the error models on each axis by using the least square method, and the validation of the obtained models with experimental values. For all of the three detection channels was obtained a reduction by almost two orders of magnitude of the acceleration absolute maximum error due to environmental temperature variation.

Using basic metrics to analyze high-resolution temperature data in the subsurface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanafield, Margaret; McCallum, James L.; Cook, Peter G.; Noorduijn, Saskia

2017-08-01

Time-series temperature data can be summarized to provide valuable information on spatial variation in subsurface flow, using simple metrics. Such computationally light analysis is often discounted in favor of more complex models. However, this study demonstrates the merits of summarizing high-resolution temperature data, obtained from a fiber optic cable installation at several depths within a water delivery channel, into daily amplitudes and mean temperatures. These results are compared to fluid flux estimates from a one-dimensional (1D) advection-conduction model and to the results of a previous study that used a full three-dimensional (3D) model. At a depth of 0.1 m below the channel, plots of amplitude suggested areas of advective water movement (as confirmed by the 1D and 3D models). Due to lack of diurnal signal at depths below 0.1 m, mean temperature was better able to identify probable areas of water movement at depths of 0.25-0.5 m below the channel. The high density of measurements provided a 3D picture of temperature change over time within the study reach, and would be suitable for long-term monitoring in man-made environments such as constructed wetlands, recharge basins, and water-delivery channels, where a firm understanding of spatial and temporal variation in infiltration is imperative for optimal functioning.

A thermodynamic and heat transfer model for LNG ageing during ship transportation. Towards an efficient boil-off gas management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikkis, Rizos N.

2018-06-01

A non-equilibrium thermodynamic and heat transfer model for LNG ageing during ship transportation has been developed based on experimental data. The measurements reveal that the liquid temperature remains nearly constant, whereas significant variations are observed for the gas temperature. The measurement of the liquid temperature along the tank height suggests that a small scale rollover phenomenon may have taken place in one cargo tank. A time dependent heat transfer mechanism has been considered by taking into account the temperature variations of the atmospheric air, the seawater and the cofferdam environment which affect the cargo tanks. An important finding is that the evaporation rate (boil-of rate) is forced to follow the fuel flow consumption profile imposed by the vessel's propulsion system in order to match the tank pressure and volume constraints. The theoretical model is favorably compared to a comprehensive set on per hour basis of on board measurements of cargo temperatures and pressures, recorded during laden voyages, providing a better understanding of the underlying processes involved. The dominant role of the fuel consumption on the evaporation rate may be utilized in order to devise an efficient cargo management strategy during the laden voyage.

Temperature-dependent behaviours are genetically variable in the nematode Caenorhabditis briggsae.

PubMed

Stegeman, Gregory W; de Mesquita, Matthew Bueno; Ryu, William S; Cutter, Asher D

2013-03-01

Temperature-dependent behaviours in Caenorhabditis elegans, such as thermotaxis and isothermal tracking, are complex behavioural responses that integrate sensation, foraging and learning, and have driven investigations to discover many essential genetic and neural pathways. The ease of manipulation of the Caenorhabditis model system also has encouraged its application to comparative analyses of phenotypic evolution, particularly contrasts of the classic model C. elegans with C. briggsae. And yet few studies have investigated natural genetic variation in behaviour in any nematode. Here we measure thermotaxis and isothermal tracking behaviour in genetically distinct strains of C. briggsae, further motivated by the latitudinal differentiation in C. briggsae that is associated with temperature-dependent fitness differences in this species. We demonstrate that C. briggsae performs thermotaxis and isothermal tracking largely similar to that of C. elegans, with a tendency to prefer its rearing temperature. Comparisons of these behaviours among strains reveal substantial heritable natural variation within each species that corresponds to three general patterns of behavioural response. However, intraspecific genetic differences in thermal behaviour often exceed interspecific differences. These patterns of temperature-dependent behaviour motivate further development of C. briggsae as a model system for dissecting the genetic underpinnings of complex behavioural traits.

Application of satellite data in variational analysis for global cyclonic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, G. L.

1988-01-01

The goal of the research is a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity were defined. The research performed during the second year fall into four areas: sensitivity studies involving Model 1; evaluation of Model 2; reformation of Model 1 for greater compatibility with Model 2; development of Model 3 (radiative transfer equation); and making the model more responsive to the observations.

Uniform Temperature Dependency in the Phenology of a Keystone Herbivore in Lakes of the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Straile, Dietmar; Adrian, Rita; Schindler, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

Spring phenologies are advancing in many ecosystems associated with climate warming causing unpredictable changes in ecosystem functioning. Here we establish a phenological model for Daphnia, an aquatic keystone herbivore based on decadal data on water temperatures and the timing of Daphnia population maxima from Lake Constance, a large European lake. We tested this model with long-term time-series data from two lakes (Müggelsee, Germany; Lake Washington, USA), and with observations from a diverse set of 49 lakes/sites distributed widely across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The model successfully captured the observed temporal variation of Daphnia phenology in the two case study sites (r2 = 0.25 and 0.39 for Müggelsee and Lake Washington, respectively) and large-scale spatial variation in the NH (R2 = 0.57). These results suggest that Daphnia phenology follows a uniform temperature dependency in NH lakes. Our approach – based on temperature phenologies – has large potential to study and predict phenologies of animal and plant populations across large latitudinal gradients in other ecosystems. PMID:23071520

Temperature dependence of attitude sensor coalignments on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitone, D. S.; Eudell, A. H.; Patt, F. S.

1989-01-01

Results are presented on the temperature correlation of the relative coalignment between the fine pointing sun sensor (FPSS) and fixed head star trackers (FHSTs) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). This correlation can be caused by spacecraft electronic and mechanical effects. Routine daily measurements reveal a time dependent sensor coalignment variation. The magnitude of the alignment variation is on the order of 120 arc seconds (arc sec), which greatly exceeds the prelaunch thermal structural analysis estimate of 15 acr sec. Differences between FPSS-only and FHST-only yaw solutions as a function of mission day are correlated with the relevant spacecraft temperature. If unaccounted for, the sensor misalignments due to thermal effects are a significant source of error in attitude determination accuracy. Prominent sources of temperature variation are identified and correlated with the temperature profile observed on the SMM. It was determined that even relatively small changes in spacecraft temperature can affect the coalignments between the attitude hardware on the SMM and the science instrument support plate and that frequent recalibration of sensor alignments is necessary to compensate for this effect. An alterntive to frequent recalibration is to model the variation of alignments as a function of temperature and use this to maintain accurate ground or onboard alignment estimates. These flight data analysis results may be important consierations for prelaunch analysis of future missions.

Diurnal flight behavior of Ichneumonoidea (Insecta: Hymenoptera) related to environmental factors in a tropical dry forest.

PubMed

González-Moreno, A; Bordera, S; Leirana-Alcocer, J; Delfín-González, H

2012-06-01

The biology and behavior of insects are strongly influenced by environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation. Because some of these factors present a within day variation, they may be causing variations on insect diurnal flight activity, but scant information exists on the issue. The aim of this work was to describe the patterns on diurnal variation of the abundance of Ichneumonoidea and their relation with relative humidity, temperature, light intensity, and wind speed. The study site was a tropical dry forest at Ría Lagartos Biosphere Reserve, Mexico; where correlations between environmental factors (relative humidity, temperature, light, and wind speed) and abundance of Ichneumonidae and Braconidae (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonoidea) were estimated. The best regression model for explaining abundance variation was selected using the second order Akaike Information Criterion. The optimum values of temperature, humidity, and light for flight activity of both families were also estimated. Ichneumonid and braconid abundances were significantly correlated to relative humidity, temperature, and light intensity; ichneumonid also showed significant correlations to wind speed. The second order Akaike Information Criterion suggests that in tropical dry conditions, relative humidity is more important that temperature for Ichneumonoidea diurnal activity. Ichneumonid wasps selected toward intermediate values of relative humidity, temperature and the lowest wind speeds; while Braconidae selected for low values of relative humidity. For light intensity, braconids presented a positive selection for moderately high values.

Finite-temperature Gutzwiller approximation from the time-dependent variational principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanatà, Nicola; Deng, Xiaoyu; Kotliar, Gabriel

2015-08-01

We develop an extension of the Gutzwiller approximation to finite temperatures based on the Dirac-Frenkel variational principle. Our method does not rely on any entropy inequality, and is substantially more accurate than the approaches proposed in previous works. We apply our theory to the single-band Hubbard model at different fillings, and show that our results compare quantitatively well with dynamical mean field theory in the metallic phase. We discuss potential applications of our technique within the framework of first-principle calculations.

Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.; Bartlein, P.J.; Mix, A.C.; Pisias, N.J.

1999-01-01

We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model, using boundary conditions based on the concept of a "canonical" Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by lowering of the LIS, then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive, whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign, suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets, and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Does spatial variation in environmental conditions affect recruitment? A study using a 3-D model of Peruvian anchovy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco P.; Ayón, Patricia

2015-11-01

We used a 3-dimensional individual-based model (3-D IBM) of Peruvian anchovy to examine how spatial variation in environmental conditions affects larval and juvenile growth and survival, and recruitment. Temperature, velocity, and phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations generated from a coupled hydrodynamic Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model, mapped to a three dimensional rectangular grid, were used to simulate anchovy populations. The IBM simulated individuals as they progressed from eggs to recruitment at 10 cm. Eggs and yolk-sac larvae were followed hourly through the processes of development, mortality, and movement (advection), and larvae and juveniles were followed daily through the processes of growth, mortality, and movement (advection plus behavior). A bioenergetics model was used to grow larvae and juveniles. The NPZD model provided prey fields which influence both food consumption rate as well as behavior mediated movement with individuals going to grids cells having optimal growth conditions. We compared predicted recruitment for monthly cohorts for 1990 through 2004 between the full 3-D IBM and a point (0-D) model that used spatially-averaged environmental conditions. The 3-D and 0-D versions generated similar interannual patterns in monthly recruitment for 1991-2004, with the 3-D results yielding consistently higher survivorship. Both versions successfully captured the very poor recruitment during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. Higher recruitment in the 3-D simulations was due to higher survival during the larval stage resulting from individuals searching for more favorable temperatures that lead to faster growth rates. The strong effect of temperature was because both model versions provided saturating food conditions for larval and juvenile anchovies. We conclude with a discussion of how explicit treatment of spatial variation affected simulated recruitment, other examples of fisheries modeling analyses that have used a similar approach to assess the influence of spatial variation, and areas for further model development.

Bioheat model evaluations of laser effects on tissues: role of water evaporation and diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagulapally, Deepthi; Joshi, Ravi P.; Thomas, Robert J.

2011-03-01

A two-dimensional, time-dependent bioheat model is applied to evaluate changes in temperature and water content in tissues subjected to laser irradiation. Our approach takes account of liquid-to-vapor phase changes and a simple diffusive flow of water within the biotissue. An energy balance equation considers blood perfusion, metabolic heat generation, laser absorption, and water evaporation. The model also accounts for the water dependence of tissue properties (both thermal and optical), and variations in blood perfusion rates based on local tissue injury. Our calculations show that water diffusion would reduce the local temperature increases and hot spots in comparison to simple models that ignore the role of water in the overall thermal and mass transport. Also, the reduced suppression of perfusion rates due to tissue heating and damage with water diffusion affect the necrotic depth. Two-dimensional results for the dynamic temperature, water content, and damage distributions will be presented for skin simulations. It is argued that reduction in temperature gradients due to water diffusion would mitigate local refractive index variations, and hence influence the phenomenon of thermal lensing. Finally, simple quantitative evaluations of pressure increases within the tissue due to laser absorption are presented.

Water Temperature, Invertebrate Drift, and the Scope for Growth for Juvenile Spring Chinook Salmon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovtang, J. C.; Li, H. W.

2005-05-01

We present a bioenergetic assessment of habitat quality based on the concept of the scope for growth for juvenile Chinook salmon. Growth of juvenile salmonids during the freshwater phase of their life history depends on a balance between two main factors: energy intake and metabolic costs. The metabolic demands of temperature and the availability of food play integral roles in determining the scope for growth of juvenile salmonids in stream systems. We investigated differences in size of juvenile spring Chinook salmon in relation to water temperature and invertebrate drift density in six unique study reaches in the Metolius River Basin, a tributary of the Deschutes River in Central Oregon. This project was initiated to determine the relative quality and potential productivity of habitat in the Metolius Basin prior to the reintroduction of spring Chinook salmon, which were extirpated from the middle Deschutes basin in the early 1970's due to the construction of a hydroelectric dam. Variations in the growth of juvenile Chinook salmon can be described using a multiple regression model of water temperature and invertebrate drift density. We also discuss the relationships between our bioenergetic model, variations of the ideal free distribution model, and physiological growth models.

A stream temperature model for the Peace-Athabasca River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Marin, L. A.; Rokaya, P.; Wheater, H. S.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Water temperature plays a fundamental role in water ecosystem functioning. Because it regulates flow energy and metabolic rates in organism productivity over a broad spectrum of space and time scales, water temperature constitutes an important indicator of aquatic ecosystems health. In cold region basins, stream water temperature modelling is also fundamental to predict ice freeze-up and break-up events in order to improve flood management. Multiple model approaches such as linear and multivariable regression methods, neural network and thermal energy budged models have been developed and implemented to simulate stream water temperature. Most of these models have been applied to specific stream reaches and trained using observed data, but very little has been done to simulate water temperature in large catchment river networks. We present the coupling of RBM model, a semi-Lagrangian water temperature model for advection-dominated river system, and MESH, a semi-distributed hydrological model, to simulate stream water temperature in river catchments. The coupled models are implemented in the Peace-Athabasca River basin in order to analyze the variation in stream temperature regimes under changing hydrological and meteorological conditions. Uncertainty of stream temperature simulations is also assessed in order to determine the degree of reliability of the estimates.

Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Karoly, David J.

2008-03-01

Observations from seven Central Asian glaciers (35-55°N; 70-95°E) are used, together with regional temperature data, to infer uncertain parameters for a simple linear model of the glacier length variations. The glacier model is based on first order glacier dynamics and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. An adjoint-based variational method is used to optimally determine the glacier reference states in 1900 and the uncertain glacier model parameters. The simple glacier model is then used to estimate the glacier length variations until 2060 using regional temperature projections from an ensemble of climate model simulations for a future climate change scenario (SRES A2). For the period 2000-2060, all glaciers are projected to experience substantial further shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes (e.g., Glacier Chogo Lungma retreats ˜4 km). Although nearly one-third of the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences between the individual glacier responses are large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and the projected fractional change of its length.

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model - CLM3.5-DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 - ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 - JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 - SiB3; and the soil-plant-atmosphere model - SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Read, William G.; Anderson, John

2017-04-01

We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S-30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (-0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about -0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model.

Mars global reference atmosphere model (Mars-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie F.

1992-01-01

Mars-GRAM is an empirical model that parameterizes the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere from the surface through thermospheric altitudes. In the lower atmosphere of Mars, the model is built around parameterizations of height, latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of temperature determined from a survey of published measurements from the Mariner and Viking programs. Pressure and density are inferred from the temperature by making use of the hydrostatic and perfect gas laws relationships. For the upper atmosphere, the thermospheric model of Stewart is used. A hydrostatic interpolation routine is used to insure a smooth transition from the lower portion of the model to the Stewart thermospheric model. Other aspects of the model are discussed.

Modelling of temperature and perfusion during scalp cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janssen, F. E. M.; Van Leeuwen, G. M. J.; Van Steenhoven, A. A.

2005-09-01

Hair loss is a feared side effect of chemotherapy treatment. It may be prevented by cooling the scalp during administration of cytostatics. The supposed mechanism is that by cooling the scalp, both temperature and perfusion are diminished, affecting drug supply and drug uptake in the hair follicle. However, the effect of scalp cooling varies strongly. To gain more insight into the effect of cooling, a computer model has been developed that describes heat transfer in the human head during scalp cooling. Of main interest in this study are the mutual influences of scalp temperature and perfusion during cooling. Results of the standard head model show that the temperature of the scalp skin is reduced from 34.4 °C to 18.3 °C, reducing tissue blood flow to 25%. Based upon variations in both thermal properties and head anatomies found in the literature, a parameter study was performed. The results of this parameter study show that the most important parameters affecting both temperature and perfusion are the perfusion coefficient Q10 and the thermal resistances of both the fat and the hair layer. The variations in the parameter study led to skin temperature ranging from 10.1 °C to 21.8 °C, which in turn reduced relative perfusion to 13% and 33%, respectively.

Reference breast temperature: proposal of an equation.

PubMed

Souza, Gladis Aparecida Galindo Reisemberger de; Brioschi, Marcos Leal; Vargas, José Viriato Coelho; Morais, Keli Cristiane Correia; Dalmaso Neto, Carlos; Neves, Eduardo Borba

2015-01-01

To develop an equation to estimate the breast reference temperature according to the variation of room and core body temperatures. Four asymptomatic women were evaluated for three consecutive menstrual cycles. Using thermography, the temperature of breasts and eyes was measured as indirect reference of core body and room temperatures. To analyze the thermal behavior of the breasts during the cycle, the core body and room temperatures were normalized by means of a mathematical equation. We performed 180 observations and the core temperature had the highest correlation with the breast temperature, followed by room temperature. The proposed prediction model could explain 45.3% of the breast temperature variation, with variable room temperature variable; it can be accepted as a way to estimate the reference breast temperature at different room temperatures. The average breast temperature in healthy women had a direct relation with the core and room temperature and can be estimated mathematically. It is suggested that an equation could be used in clinical practice to estimate the normal breast reference temperature in young women, regardless of the day of the cycle, therefore assisting in evaluation of anatomical studies.

Refractive indices of liquid crystal E7 depending on temperature and wavelengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingjian; Li, Shuguang; Jing, Xili; Chen, Hailiang

2017-11-01

The dependence of refractive indices of liquid crystal (LC) on temperature is represented by the Haller approximation model, and its dependence on the wavelength is expressed by the extended Cauchy model. We derived the refractive indices expressions of nematic LC E7 depending on temperature and wavelength simultaneously by combining these two models. Based on the obtained expressions, one can acquire the refractive indices of E7 at arbitrary temperature and wavelengths. The birefringence, variation rate of refractive indices, macroscopic order parameter Q, and orientational order parameter ⟨P2⟩ of E7 were then discussed based on the expressions.

Effects of environmental temperature on the dynamics of ichthyophoniasis in Juvenile Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, J.L.; Vollenweider, Johanna J.; Grady, C.A.; Heintz, R.A.; Hershberger, P.K.

2011-01-01

The effects of temperature and infection by Ichthyophonus were examined in juvenile Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) maintained under simulated overwinter fasting conditions. In addition to defining parameters for a herring bioenergetics model (discussed in Vollenweider et al. this issue), these experiments provided new insights into factors influencing the infectivity and virulence of the parasite Ichthyophonus. In groups of fish with established disease, temperature variation had little effect on disease outcome. Ichthyophonus mortality outpaced that resulting from starvation alone. In newly infected fish, temperature variation significantly changed the mortality patterns related to disease. Both elevated and lowered temperatures suppressed disease-related mortality relative to ambient treatments. When parasite exposure dose decreased, an inverse relationship between infection prevalence and temperature was detected. These findings suggest interplay between temperature optima for parasite growth and host immune function and have implications for our understanding of how Ichthyophonus infections are established in wild fish populations.

Gas pressure and electron density at the level of the active zone of hollow cathode arc discharges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minoo, M. H.

1984-01-01

A model for the longitudinal variations of the partial pressures of electrons, ions, and neutral particles is proposed as a result of an experimental study of pressure variations at the level of the active zone as a function of the various discharge parameters of a hollow cathode arc. The cathode region where the temperature passes through its maximum is called active zone. The proposed model embodies the very important variations which the partial electron and neutral particles pressures undergo at the level of the active zone.

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

2006-01-01

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are confined to equatorial latitudes. Hemispherical asymmetries also appear in both the model results and the observations. The temperature amplitudes outside the equatorial region however tend to occur at lower latitudes in the model results. While there is qualitative agreement between the TIMED measurements and the model prediction, there are some areas of significant disagreement that require us to reexamine the present version of the NSM. The numerical results critically depend on the chosen parameters that determine the wave forcing, and there are a number of avenues to improve the performance of the model that had not been tuned to fit the observations. The GW spectrum and its latitude dependence in the troposphere are not well known, and numerical experiments are discussed that describe the related model response. While it appears that eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves are not the primary source to generate the QBO, the GW forcing can seed the oscillation and act as a catalyst to enhance effectiveness of these planetary waves.

Models of H II regions - Heavy element opacity, variation of temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, R. H.

1985-01-01

A detailed set of H II region models that use the same physics and self-consistent input have been computed and are used to examine where in parameter space the effects of heavy element opacity is important. The models are briefly described, and tabular data for the input parameters and resulting properties of the models are presented. It is found that the opacities of C, Ne, O, and to a lesser extent N play a vital role over a large region of parameter space, while S and Ar opacities are negligible. The variation of the average electron temperature T(e) of the models with metal abundance, density, and T(eff) is investigated. It is concluded that by far the most important determinator of T(e) is metal abundance; an almost 7000 K difference is expected over the factor of 10 change from up to down abundances.

Patterns of Cross-Continental Variation in Tree Seed Mass in the Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Liu, Jushan; Bai, Yuguang; Lamb, Eric G.; Simpson, Dale; Liu, Guofang; Wei, Yongsheng; Wang, Deli; McKenney, Daniel W.; Papadopol, Pia

2013-01-01

Seed mass is an adaptive trait affecting species distribution, population dynamics and community structure. In widely distributed species, variation in seed mass may reflect both genetic adaptation to local environments and adaptive phenotypic plasticity. Acknowledging the difficulty in separating these two aspects, we examined the causal relationships determining seed mass variation to better understand adaptability and/or plasticity of selected tree species to spatial/climatic variation. A total of 504, 481 and 454 seed collections of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb) across the Canadian Boreal Forest, respectively, were selected. Correlation analyses were used to determine how seed mass vary with latitude, longitude, and altitude. Structural Equation Modeling was used to examine how geographic and climatic variables influence seed mass. Climatic factors explained a large portion of the variation in seed mass (34, 14 and 29%, for black spruce, white spruce and jack pine, respectively), indicating species-specific adaptation to long term climate conditions. Higher annual mean temperature and winter precipitation caused greater seed mass in black spruce, but annual precipitation was the controlling factor for white spruce. The combination of factors such as growing season temperature and evapotranspiration, temperature seasonality and annual precipitation together determined seed mass of jack pine. Overall, sites with higher winter temperatures were correlated with larger seeds. Thus, long-term climatic conditions, at least in part, determined spatial variation in seed mass. Black spruce and Jack pine, species with relatively more specific habitat requirements and less plasticity, had more variation in seed mass explained by climate than did the more plastic species white spruce. As traits such as seed mass are related to seedling growth and survival, they potentially influence forest species composition in a changing climate and should be included in future modeling of vegetation shifts. PMID:23593392

Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulinets, S. A.; Dunajecka, M. A.

2007-02-01

The recent development of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by 222Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes. We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.

Role of antimony in the charge transport mechanisms for La0.67Ca0.33Mn1-xSbxO3 manganites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataria, B. R.; Solanki, Pankaj; Pandya, D. D.; Solanki, P. S.; Shah, N. A.

2018-07-01

Single phasic La0.67Ca0.33Mn1-xSbxO3 (LCMSO; x = 0.00, 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08 and 0.10) samples were characterized by performing temperature and magnetic field dependent resistance measurements. Present study, mainly, aims for the better understanding of possible charge conduction mechanisms responsible for the low temperature resistivity and high temperature [well above metal to insulator transition temperature (TP)] semiconducting regions. Variation in resistivity and TP with Sb5+ content (x) and applied magnetic field has been discussed in the light of the modifications in structural and magnetic lattices of smaller diamagnetic Sb5+ doped LCMSO system. Various models and mechanisms have been theoretical employed to fit obtained experimental resistivity data for the low temperature resistivity and semiconducting regions of all LCMSO manganites. It is found that low temperature resistivity minima follows the coulomb blockade model while charge conduction in the semiconducting region obeys the variable range hopping (VRH) mechanism. Variation in low temperature blocking energy, activation energy in semiconducting region and magnetoresistance (MR) with Sb5+ content (x) and applied magnetic field has been discussed in detail.

Exploration of new methods for growing Ag films on Au(111) studied by ARPES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luh, Dah-An; Cheng, Cheng-Maw; Tsai, Chi-Ting; Tsuei, Ku-Ding

2007-03-01

Ag/Au(111) thin films have attracted lots of interests as a model system in the past decades. Ag and Au are lattice-matched, and thin Ag films of very high quality are expected to grow on Au(111). However, the intermixing between Ag and Au at elevated temperatures has been a major concern during the growth of Ag films on the Au(111) surface. In many previous studies, Ag was deposited on the Au(111) surface at near room temperature to avoid the intermixing problem. Investigating the results from these studies, the Ag films on Au(111) grown by this recipe still show clear thickness variation. This thickness variation may result from Ag-Au intermixing or film roughening during the process of room temperature deposition. We are revisiting this classical model system with new growth methods. Our goal is to find growth methods that will stop the intermixing between Ag and Au and reduce the variation in the thickness of Ag films. Preliminary results from our study will be presented in this poster.

Estimating the Soil Temperature Profile from a Single Depth Observation: A Simple Empirical Heatflow Solution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmes, Thomas; Owe, Manfred; deJeu, Richard

2007-01-01

Two data sets of experimental field observations with a range of meteorological conditions are used to investigate the possibility of modeling near-surface soil temperature profiles in a bare soil. It is shown that commonly used heat flow methods that assume a constant ground heat flux can not be used to model the extreme variations in temperature that occur near the surface. This paper proposes a simple approach for modeling the surface soil temperature profiles from a single depth observation. This approach consists of two parts: 1) modeling an instantaneous ground flux profile based on net radiation and the ground heat flux at 5cm depth; 2) using this ground heat flux profile to extrapolate a single temperature observation to a continuous near surface temperature profile. The new model is validated with an independent data set from a different soil and under a range of meteorological conditions.

Shear wave velocity, seismic attenuation, and thermal structure of the continental upper mantle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artemieva, I.M.; Billien, M.; Leveque, J.-J.; Mooney, W.D.

2004-01-01

Seismic velocity and attenuation anomalies in the mantle are commonly interpreted in terms of temperature variations on the basis of laboratory studies of elastic and anelastic properties of rocks. In order to evaluate the relative contributions of thermal and non-thermal effects on anomalies of attenuation of seismic shear waves, QS-1, and seismic velocity, VS, we compare global maps of the thermal structure of the continental upper mantle with global QS-1 and Vs maps as determined from Rayleigh waves at periods between 40 and 150 S. We limit the comparison to three continental mantle depths (50, 100 and 150 km), where model resolution is relatively high. The available data set does not indicate that, at a global scale, seismic anomalies in the upper mantle are controlled solely by temperature variations. Continental maps have correlation coefficients of <0.56 between VS and T and of <0.47 between QS and T at any depth. Such low correlation coefficients can partially be attributed to modelling arrefacts; however, they also suggest that not all of the VS and QS anomalies in the continental upper mantle can be explained by T variations. Global maps show that, by the sign of the anomaly, VS and QS usually inversely correlate with lithospheric temperatures: most cratonic regions show high VS and QS and low T, while most active regions have seismic and thermal anomalies of the opposite sign. The strongest inverse correlation is found at a depth of 100 km, where the attenuation model is best resolved. Significantly, at this depth, the contours of near-zero QS anomalies approximately correspond to the 1000 ??C isotherm, in agreement with laboratory measurements that show a pronounced increase in seismic attenuation in upper mantle rocks at 1000-1100 ??C. East-west profiles of VS, QS and T where continental data coverage is best (50??N latitude for North America and 60??N latitude for Eurasia) further demonstrate that temperature plays a dominant, but non-unique, role in determining the value of lithospheric VS and QS. At 100 km depth, where the resolution of seismic models is the highest, we compare observed seismic VS and QS with theoretical VST and QST values, respectively, that are calculated solely from temperature anomalies and constrained by experimental data on temperature dependencies of velocity and attenuation. This comparison shows that temperature variations alone are sufficient to explain seismic VS and QS in ca 50 per cent of continental regions. We hypothesize that compositional anomalies resulting from Fe depletion can explain the misfit between seismic and theoretical VS in cratonic lithosphere. In regions of active tectonics, temperature effects alone cannot explain seismic VS and QS in the lithosphere. It is likely that partial melts and/or fluids may affect seismic parameters in these regions. This study demonstrates that lithospheric temperature plays the dominant role in controlling VS and QS anomalies, but other physical parameters, such as compositional variations, fluids, partial melting and scattering, may also play a significant role in determining VS and QS variations in the continental mantle. ?? 2004 RAS.

Investigation of Relationship between QBO and Ionospheric Neutral Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saǧır, Selçuk; Atıcı, Ramazan; Özcan, Osman

2016-07-01

The relationship between Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) measured at 10 hPa altitude and neutral temperature obtained from NRLMSIS-00 model for 90 km altitude of ionosphere is statistically investigated. For this study, multiple-regression model is used. To see effect on neutral temperature of QBO directions, Dummy variables are added to model established. In the results of performed analysis, it is observed that QBO is effected on neutral temperature of ionosphere. It is determined that 57% of variations at neutral temperature can be explainable by QBO. According to the established model, statistical explainable ratio was determined as 1% that it is the highest rate. Also, it is seen that an increase/a decrease of 1 meter per second at QBO give rise to an increase/a decrease of 0,07 K at neutral temperature.

Effect of Fuel Temperature Profile on Eigenvalue Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greifenkamp, Tom E; Clarno, Kevin T; Gehin, Jess C

2008-01-01

Use of an average fuel temperature is a current practice when modeling fuel for eigenvalue (k-inf) calculations. This is an approximation, as it is known from Heat-transfer methods that a fuel pin having linear power q', will have a temperature that varies radially and has a maximum temperature at the center line [1]. This paper describes an investigation into the effects on k-inf and isotopic concentrations of modeling a fuel pin using a single average temperature versus a radially varying fuel temperature profile. The axial variation is not discussed in this paper. A single fuel pin was modeled having 1,more » 3, 5, 8, or 10 regions of equal volumes (areas). Fig. 1 shows a model of a 10-ring fuel pin surrounded by a gap and then cladding.« less

NICMOS Focus and HST Breathing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suchkov, A.; Hershey, J.

1998-09-01

The program 7608 monitored on a biweekly basis NICMOS camera foci from June 9, 1997, through February 18, 1998. Each of the biweekly observations included 17 measurements of focus position (focus sweeps), individually for each of the three cameras. The measurements for camera 1 and camera 3 foci covered one or two HST orbital periods. Comparison of these measurements with the predictions of the three OTA focus breathing models has shown the following. (1). Focus variations seen in NICMOS focus sweeps correlate well with the OTA focus thermal breathing as predicted by breathing models (“4- temperature”, “full-temperature”, and “attitude” models). Thus they can be attributed mostly to the HST orbital temperature variation. (2). The amount of breathing (breathing amplitude) has been found to be on average larger in the first orbit after a telescope slew to a new target. This is explained as being due to additional thermal perturbations caused by the change in the HST attitude as the telescope repoints to a new target. (3). In the first orbit, the amount of focus change predicted by the 4-temperature model is about the same as that seen in the focus sweeps data (breathing scale factor ~1). However the full-temperature model predicts a two times smaller breathing amplitude (breathing scale factor ~1.7). This suggests that the light shield temperatures are more responsive to the attitude change than temperatures from the other temperature sensors. The results of this study may help to better understand the HST thermal cycles and to improve the models describing the impact of those on both the OTA and NICMOS focus.

Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ge; Wu, Renguang; Sun, Shuqing; Wang, Huimei

2015-09-01

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs. Results show that more long-duration (over 8 days) high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) than over the surrounding regions, and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ. The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS) region (18°-27°N, 115°-124°E) and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea (IAS) region (18°-27°N, 60°-80°E) contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature, relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly. More precipitation (enhanced condensational heating) over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia, and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern. More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough, and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region. Furthermore, the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection, inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent, which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies. The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

2015-01-01

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

EUCLIA—Exploring the UV/Optical Continuum Lag in Active Galactic Nuclei. I. A Model without Light Echoing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Zhen-Yi; Wang, Jun-Xian; Zhu, Fei-Fan; Sun, Mou-Yuan; Gu, Wei-Min; Cao, Xin-Wu; Yuan, Feng

2018-03-01

The tight interband correlation and the lag–wavelength relation among UV/optical continua of active galactic nuclei have been firmly established. They are usually understood within the widespread reprocessing scenario; however, the implied interband lags are generally too small. Furthermore, it is challenged by new evidence, such as that the X-ray reprocessing yields too much high-frequency UV/optical variation and that it fails to reproduce the observed timescale-dependent color variations among the Swift light curves of NGC 5548. In a different manner, we demonstrate that an upgraded inhomogeneous accretion disk model, whose local independent temperature fluctuations are subject to a speculated common large-scale temperature fluctuation, can intrinsically generate the tight interband correlation and lag across the UV/optical and be in nice agreement with several observational properties of NGC 5548, including the timescale-dependent color variation. The emergent lag is a result of the differential regression capability of local temperature fluctuations when responding to the large-scale fluctuation. An average speed of propagations as large as ≳15% of the speed of light may be required by this common fluctuation. Several potential physical mechanisms for such propagations are discussed. Our interesting phenomenological scenario may shed new light on comprehending the UV/optical continuum variations of active galactic nuclei.

Analysis of regolith electromagnetic scattering as constrained by high resolution Earth-based measurements of the lunar microwave emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keihm, S. J.

1983-01-01

When high resolution measurements of the phase variation of the lunar disk center brightness temperature revealed that in situ regolith electrical losses were larger than those measured on returned samples by a factor of 1.5 to 2.0 at centimeter wavelengths, the need for a refinement of the regolith model to include realistic treatment of scattering effects was identified. Two distinct scattering regimes are considered: vertial variations in dielectric constant and volume scattering due to subsurface rock fragments. Models of lunar regolith energy transport processes are now at the state for which a maximum scientific return could be realized from a lunar orbiter microwave mapping experiment. A detailed analysis, including the effects of scattering produced a set of nominal brightness temperature spectra for lunar equatorial regions, which can be used for mapping as a calibration reference for mapping variations in mineralogy and heat flow.

Antiferromagnetic Potts Model on the Erdős-Rényi Random Graph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contucci, Pierluigi; Dommers, Sander; Giardinà, Cristian; Starr, Shannon

2013-10-01

We study the antiferromagnetic Potts model on the Poissonian Erdős-Rényi random graph. By identifying a suitable interpolation structure and an extended variational principle, together with a positive temperature second-moment analysis we prove the existence of a phase transition at a positive critical temperature. Upper and lower bounds on the temperature critical value are obtained from the stability analysis of the replica symmetric solution (recovered in the framework of Derrida-Ruelle probability cascades) and from an entropy positivity argument.

Reducing variation in a rabbit vaccine safety study with particular emphasis on housing conditions and handling.

PubMed

Verwer, Cynthia M; van der Ark, Arno; van Amerongen, Geert; van den Bos, Ruud; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M

2009-04-01

This paper describes the results of a study of the effects of modified housing conditions, conditioning and habituation on humans using a rabbit model for monitoring whole-cell pertussis vaccine (pWCV)-induced adverse effects. The study has been performed with reference to previous vaccine safety studies of pWCV in rabbits in which results were difficult to interpret due to the large variation in experimental outcome, especially in the key parameter deep-body temperature (T(b)). Certain stressful laboratory conditions, as well as procedures involving humans, e.g. blood sampling, inoculation and cage-cleaning, were hypothesized to cause this large variation. The results of this study show that under modified housing conditions rabbits have normal circadian body temperatures. This allowed discrimination of pWCV-induced adverse effects in which handled rabbits tended to show a dose-related increase in temperature after inoculation with little variance, whereas non-handled rabbits did not. Effects of experimental and routine procedures on body temperature were significantly reduced under modified conditions and were within the normal T(b) range. Handled animals reacted less strongly and with less variance to experimental procedures, such as blood sampling, injection and cage-cleaning, than non-handled rabbits. Overall, handling had a positive effect on the behaviour of the animals. Data show that the housing modifications have provided a more robust model for monitoring pWCV adverse effects. Furthermore, conditioning and habituation of rabbits to humans reduce the variation in experimental outcome, which might allow for a reduction in the number of animals used. In addition, this also reduces distress and thus contributes to refining this animal model.

The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change.

PubMed

Woods, H Arthur; Dillon, Michael E; Pincebourde, Sylvain

2015-12-01

We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Field-calibrated model of melt, refreezing, and runoff for polar ice caps: Application to Devon Ice Cap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Richard M.; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Bell, Christina; Burgess, David O.; Wright, Andrew P.

2014-09-01

Understanding the controls on the amount of surface meltwater that refreezes, rather than becoming runoff, over polar ice masses is necessary for modeling their surface mass balance and ultimately for predicting their future contributions to global sea level change. We present a modified version of a physically based model that includes an energy balance routine and explicit calculation of near-surface meltwater refreezing capacity, to simulate the evolution of near-surface density and temperature profiles across Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada. Uniquely, our model is initiated and calibrated using high spatial resolution measurements of snow and firn densities across almost the entire elevation range of the ice cap for the summer of 2004 and subsequently validated with the same type of measurements obtained during the very different meteorological conditions of summer 2006. The model captures the spatial variability across the transect in bulk snowpack properties although it slightly underestimates the flow of meltwater into the firn of previous years. The percentage of meltwater that becomes runoff is similar in both years; however, the spatial pattern of this melt-runoff relationship is different in the 2 years. The model is found to be insensitive to variation in the depth of impermeable layers within the firn but is very sensitive to variation in air temperature, since the refreezing capacity of firn decreases with increasing temperature. We highlight that the sensitivity of the ice cap's surface mass balance to air temperature is itself dependent on air temperature.

Mechanistic model for catalytic recombination during aerobraking maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willey, Ronald J.

1989-01-01

Several mechanistic models are developed to predict recombination coefficients for use in heat shield design for reusable surface insulation (RSI) on aerobraking vehicles such as space shuttles. The models are applied over a temperature range of 300 to 1800 K and a stagnation pressure range of 0 to 3,000 Pa. A four parameter model in temperature was found to work best; however, several models (including those with atom concentrations at the surface) were also investigated. Mechanistic models developed with atom concentration terms may be applicable when sufficient data becomes available. The requirement is shown for recombination experiments in the 300 to 1000 K and 1500 to 1850 K temperature range, with deliberate concentration variations.

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S. H.; Curran, R. J.; Ohring, G.

1979-01-01

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

Employment of single-diode model to elucidate the variations in photovoltaic parameters under different electrical and thermal conditions

PubMed Central

Hameed, Shilan S.; Aziz, Fakhra; Sulaiman, Khaulah; Ahmad, Zubair

2017-01-01

In this research work, numerical simulations are performed to correlate the photovoltaic parameters with various internal and external factors influencing the performance of solar cells. Single-diode modeling approach is utilized for this purpose and theoretical investigations are compared with the reported experimental evidences for organic and inorganic solar cells at various electrical and thermal conditions. Electrical parameters include parasitic resistances (Rs and Rp) and ideality factor (n), while thermal parameters can be defined by the cells temperature (T). A comprehensive analysis concerning broad spectral variations in the short circuit current (Isc), open circuit voltage (Voc), fill factor (FF) and efficiency (η) is presented and discussed. It was generally concluded that there exists a good agreement between the simulated results and experimental findings. Nevertheless, the controversial consequence of temperature impact on the performance of organic solar cells necessitates the development of a complementary model which is capable of well simulating the temperature impact on these devices performance. PMID:28793325

Start-up Characteristics of Swallow-tailed Axial-grooved Heat Pipe under the conditions of Multiple Heat Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Renping

2017-12-01

A mathematical model was developed for predicting start-up characteristics of Swallow-tailed Axial-grooved Heat Pipe under the conditions of Multiple Heat Sources. The effects of heat capacitance of heat source, liquid-vapour interfacial evaporation-condensation heat transfer, shear stress at the interface was considered in current model. The interfacial evaporating mass flow rate is based on the kinetic analysis. Time variations of evaporating mass rate, wall temperature and liquid velocity are studied from the start-up to steady state. The calculated results show that wall temperature demonstrates step transition at the junction between the heat source and non-existent heat source on the evaporator. The liquid velocity changes drastically at the evaporator section, however, it has slight variation at the evaporator section without heat source. When the effect of heat source is ignored, the numerical temperature demonstrates a quicker response. With the consideration of capacitance of the heat source, the data obtained from the proposed model agree well with the experimental results.

Ultrasonic Characterization of Superhard Material: Osmium Diboride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadawa, P. K.

2012-12-01

Higher order elastic constants have been calculated in hexagonal structured superhard material OsB2 at room temperature following the interaction potential model. The temperature variation of the ultrasonic velocities is evaluated along different angles with unique axis of the crystal using the second order elastic constants. The ultrasonic velocity decreases with the temperature along particular orientation with the unique axis. Temperature variation of the thermal relaxation time and Debye average velocities are also calculated along the same orientation. The temperature dependency of the ultrasonic properties is discussed in correlation with elastic, thermal and electrical properties. It has been found that the thermal conductivity is the main contributor to the behaviour of ultrasonic attenuation as a function of temperature and the responsible cause of attenuation is phonon-phonon interaction. The mechanical properties of OsB2 at low temperature are better than at high temperature, because at low temperature it has low ultrasonic velocity and ultrasonic attenuation. Superhard material OsB2 has many industrial applications, such as abrasives, cutting tools and hard coatings.

Microwave emission characteristics of sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edgerton, A. T.; Poe, G.

1972-01-01

A general classification is presented for sea ice brightness temperatures with categories of high and low emission, corresponding to young and weathered sea ice, respectively. A sea ice emission model was developed which allows variations of ice salinity and temperature in directions perpendicular to the ice surface.

New temperature model of the Netherlands from new data and novel modelling methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonté, Damien; Struijk, Maartje; Békési, Eszter; Cloetingh, Sierd; van Wees, Jan-Diederik

2017-04-01

Deep geothermal energy has grown in interest in Western Europe in the last decades, for direct use but also, as the knowledge of the subsurface improves, for electricity generation. In the Netherlands, where the sector took off with the first system in 2005, geothermal energy is seen has a key player for a sustainable future. The knowledge of the temperature subsurface, together with the available flow from the reservoir, is an important factor that can determine the success of a geothermal energy project. To support the development of deep geothermal energy system in the Netherlands, we have made a first assessment of the subsurface temperature based on thermal data but also on geological elements (Bonté et al, 2012). An outcome of this work was ThermoGIS that uses the temperature model. This work is a revision of the model that is used in ThermoGIS. The improvement from the first model are multiple, we have been improving not only the dataset used for the calibration and structural model, but also the methodology trough an improved software (called b3t). The temperature dataset has been updated by integrating temperature on the newly accessible wells. The sedimentary description in the basin has been improved by using an updated and refined structural model and an improved lithological definition. A major improvement in from the methodology used to perform the modelling, with b3t the calibration is made not only using the lithospheric parameters but also using the thermal conductivity of the sediments. The result is a much more accurate definition of the parameters for the model and a perfected handling of the calibration process. The result obtain is a precise and improved temperature model of the Netherlands. The thermal conductivity variation in the sediments associated with geometry of the layers is an important factor of temperature variations and the influence of the Zechtein salt in the north of the country is important. In addition, the radiogenic heat production in the crust shows a significant impact. From the temperature values, also identify in the lower part of the basin, deep convective systems that could be major geothermal energy target in the future.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

High-temperature catalytically assisted combustion. Final report, 1 August 1981-31 July 1983

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bracco, F.V.; Royce, B.S.H.; Santavicca, D.A.

1983-07-31

Results of research on a two-dimensional, transient catalytic combustion model and on a high temperature perovskite catalyst are presented. A recently developed two-dimensional, transient model was used to study the ignition of carbon monoxide/air mixtures in a platinum-coated catalytic honeycomb. Comparisons between calculated and measured steady-state substrate temperature profiles and exhaust-gas compositions show good agreement. A platinum-doped perovskite catalyst proposed will exhibit low-temperature light off and high-temperature stability. Preliminary tests using a perovskite powder with 1 wt.% platinium are encouraging, showing very little change in surface activity when used with propane fuel. Variations in catalytic activity from sample to samplemore » were also found, and after extensive testing the cause of these variations could not be identified. However, preliminary tests using Fourier-transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy do indicate differences in the various catalyst samples that may be related to the difference in catalytic activity. The use of bench-top-oven and differential-scanning-calorimetry techniques for screening catalysts in terms of relative activity and aging characteristics were also demonstrated.« less

Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez-Zapata, Diana María; Galeano-Vasco, Luis Fernando; Cerón-Muñoz, Mario Fernando

2016-01-01

Ammonia concentration (AMC) in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America). The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001). The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s) and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material). PMID:26812150

Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Mozo, H.; Orlandi, F.; Galan, C.; Fornaciari, M.; Romano, B.; Ruiz, L.; Diaz de La Guardia, C.; Trigo, M. M.; Chuine, I.

2009-03-01

Phenology data are sensitive data to identify how plants are adapted to local climate and how they respond to climatic changes. Modeling flowering phenology allows us to identify the meteorological variables determining the reproductive cycle. Phenology of temperate of woody plants is assumed to be locally adapted to climate. Nevertheless, recent research shows that local adaptation may not be an important constraint in predicting phenological responses. We analyzed variations in flowering dates of Olea europaea L. at different sites of Spain and Italy, testing for a genetic differentiation of flowering phenology among olive varieties to estimate whether local modeling is necessary for olive or not. We build models for the onset and peak dates flowering in different sites of Andalusia and Puglia. Process-based phenological models using temperature as input variable and photoperiod as the threshold date to start temperature accumulation were developed to predict both dates. Our results confirm and update previous results that indicated an advance in olive onset dates. The results indicate that both internal and external validity were higher in the models that used the photoperiod as an indicator to start to cumulate temperature. The use of the unified model for modeling the start and peak dates in the different localities provides standardized results for the comparative study. The use of regional models grouping localities by varieties and climate similarities indicate that local adaptation would not be an important factor in predicting olive phenological responses face to the global temperature increase.

Comprehensive model of microalgae photosynthesis rate as a function of culture conditions in photobioreactors.

PubMed

Costache, T A; Acién Fernández, F Gabriel; Morales, M M; Fernández-Sevilla, J M; Stamatin, I; Molina, E

2013-09-01

In this paper, the influence of culture conditions (irradiance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen) on the photosynthesis rate of Scenedesmus almeriensis cultures is analyzed. Short-run experiments were performed to study cell response to variations in culture conditions, which take place in changing environments such as outdoor photobioreactors. Experiments were performed by subjecting diluted samples of cells to different levels of irradiance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen concentration. Results demonstrate the existence of photoinhibition phenomena at irradiances higher than 1,000 μE/m(2) s; in addition to reduced photosynthesis rates at inadequate temperatures or pH-the optimal values being 35 °C and 8, respectively. Moreover, photosynthesis rate reduction at dissolved oxygen concentrations above 20 mg/l is demonstrated. Data have been used to develop an integrated model based on considering the simultaneous influence of irradiance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen. The model fits the experimental results in the range of culture conditions tested, and it was validated using data obtained by the simultaneous variation of two of the modified variables. Furthermore, the model fits experimental results obtained from an outdoor culture of S. almeriensis performed in an open raceway reactor. Results demonstrate that photosynthetic efficiency is modified as a function of culture conditions, and can be used to determine the proximity of culture conditions to optimal values. Optimal conditions found (T = 35 °C, pH = 8, dissolved oxygen concentration <20 mg/l) allows to maximize the use of light by the cells. The developed model is a powerful tool for the optimal design and management of microalgae-based processes, especially outdoors, where the cultures are subject to daily culture condition variations.

Resolving Discrepancies Between Observed and Predicted Dynamic Topography on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N. J.

2017-12-01

Compilations of well-resolved oceanic residual depth measurements suggest that present-day dynamic topography differs from that predicted by geodynamic simulations in two significant respects. At short wavelengths (λ ≤ 5,000 km), much larger amplitude variations are observed, whereas at long wavelengths (λ > 5,000 km), observed dynamic topography is substantially smaller. Explaining the cause of this discrepancy with a view to reconciling these different approaches is central to constraining the structure and dynamics of the deep Earth. Here, we first convert shear wave velocity to temperature using an experimentally-derived anelasticity model. This relationship is calibrated using a pressure and temperature-dependent plate model that satisfies age-depth subsidence, heat flow measurements, and seismological constraints on the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In this way, we show that, at short-wavelengths, observed dynamic topography is consistent with ±150 ºC asthenospheric temperature anomalies. These inferred thermal buoyancy variations are independently verified by temperature measurements derived from geochemical analyses of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Viscosity profiles derived from the anelasticity model suggest that the asthenosphere has an average viscosity that is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the underlying upper mantle. The base of this low-viscosity layer coincides with a peak in azimuthal anisotropy observed in recent seismic experiments. This agreement implies that lateral asthenospheric flow is rapid with respect to the underlying upper mantle. We conclude that improved density and viscosity models of the uppermost mantle, which combine a more comprehensive physical description of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system with recent seismic tomographic models, can help to resolve spectral discrepancies between observed and predicted dynamic topography. Finally, we explore possible solutions to the long-wavelength discrepancy that exploit the velocity to density conversion described above combined with radial variation of mantle viscosity.

Fourier and non-Fourier bio-heat transfer models to predict ex vivo temperature response to focused ultrasound heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenghai; Miao, Jiaming; Yang, Kexin; Guo, Xiasheng; Tu, Juan; Huang, Pintong; Zhang, Dong

2018-05-01

Although predicting temperature variation is important for designing treatment plans for thermal therapies, research in this area is yet to investigate the applicability of prevalent thermal conduction models, such as the Pennes equation, the thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer, and the dual phase lag (DPL) model. To address this shortcoming, we heated a tissue phantom and ex vivo bovine liver tissues with focused ultrasound (FU), measured the temperature response, and compared the results with those predicted by these models. The findings show that, for a homogeneous-tissue phantom, the initial temperature increase is accurately predicted by the Pennes equation at the onset of FU irradiation, although the prediction deviates from the measured temperature with increasing FU irradiation time. For heterogeneous liver tissues, the predicted response is closer to the measured temperature for the non-Fourier models, especially the DPL model. Furthermore, the DPL model accurately predicts the temperature response in biological tissues because it increases the phase lag, which characterizes microstructural thermal interactions. These findings should help to establish more precise clinical treatment plans for thermal therapies.

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands. 2; Interannual Variations 1982-1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Bernadette P.; Heimann, Martin; Mattews, Elaine; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A global run of a process-based methane model [Walter et al., this issue] is performed using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF reanalyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions to be 260 Tg/ yr. 25% of methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 deg. N. Only 60% of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands, the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well. The effects of sub-grid scale variations in model parameters and input data are examined. Modeled methane emissions show high regional, seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal cycles of methane emissions are dominated by temperature in high latitude wetlands, and by changes in the water table in tropical wetlands. Sensitivity tests show that +/- 1 C changes in temperature lead to +/- 20 % changes in methane emissions from wetlands. Uniform changes of +/- 20% in precipitation alter methane emissions by about +/- 18%. Limitations in the model are analyzed. Simulated interannual variations in methane emissions from wetlands are compared to observed atmospheric growth rate anomalies. Our model simulation results suggest that contributions from other sources than wetlands and/or the sinks are more important in the tropics than north-of 30 deg. N. In higher northern latitudes, it seems that a large part, of the observed interannual variations can be explained by variations in wetland emissions. Our results also suggest that reduced wetland emissions played an important role in the observed negative methane growth rate anomaly in 1992.

Estimation of surface temperature in remote pollution measurement experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, S. K.; Tiwari, S. N.

1978-01-01

A simple algorithm has been developed for estimating the actual surface temperature by applying corrections to the effective brightness temperature measured by radiometers mounted on remote sensing platforms. Corrections to effective brightness temperature are computed using an accurate radiative transfer model for the 'basic atmosphere' and several modifications of this caused by deviations of the various atmospheric and surface parameters from their base model values. Model calculations are employed to establish simple analytical relations between the deviations of these parameters and the additional temperature corrections required to compensate for them. Effects of simultaneous variation of two parameters are also examined. Use of these analytical relations instead of detailed radiative transfer calculations for routine data analysis results in a severalfold reduction in computation costs.

Temperature in lowland Danish streams: contemporary patterns, empirical models and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagergaard Pedersen, Niels; Sand-Jensen, Kaj

2007-01-01

Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold-water and oxygen-demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air-water regression model (r2: 0.903-0.947). The predictions improved in all instances (r2: 0.927-0.964) by a non-linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r2: 0.933-0.969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un-shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non-linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4-5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070-2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1.6-3.0 °C during winter and summer and 4.4-6.0 °C during spring in un-shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater-fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright

Dual Rate Adaptive Control for an Industrial Heat Supply Process Using Signal Compensation Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chai, Tianyou; Jia, Yao; Wang, Hong

The industrial heat supply process (HSP) is a highly nonlinear cascaded process which uses a steam valve opening as its control input, the steam flow-rate as its inner loop output and the supply water temperature as its outer loop output. The relationship between the heat exchange rate and the model parameters, such as steam density, entropy, and fouling correction factor and heat exchange efficiency are unknown and nonlinear. Moreover, these model parameters vary in line with steam pressure, ambient temperature and the residuals caused by the quality variations of the circulation water. When the steam pressure and the ambient temperaturemore » are of high values and are subjected to frequent external random disturbances, the supply water temperature and the steam flow-rate would interact with each other and fluctuate a lot. This is also true when the process exhibits unknown characteristic variations of the process dynamics caused by the unexpected changes of the heat exchange residuals. As a result, it is difficult to control the supply water temperature and the rates of changes of steam flow-rate well inside their targeted ranges. In this paper, a novel compensation signal based dual rate adaptive controller is developed by representing the unknown variations of dynamics as unmodeled dynamics. In the proposed controller design, such a compensation signal is constructed and added onto the control signal obtained from the linear deterministic model based feedback control design. Such a compensation signal aims at eliminating the unmodeled dynamics and the rate of changes of the currently sample unmodeled dynamics. A successful industrial application is carried out, where it has been shown that both the supply water temperature and the rate of the changes of the steam flow-rate can be controlled well inside their targeted ranges when the process is subjected to unknown variations of its dynamics.« less

Temperature variations in Greenland from 10 to 110 kyr b2k derived from the NGRIP ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindler, Philippe; Leuenberger, Markus; Landais, Amaelle; Guillevic, Myriam

2013-04-01

During the last ice age dramatic temperature variations of up to 16 °C took place in Greenland which are now known as Dansgaard-Oeschger-events (DO-events). They most probably originate from the North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric circulation system and are characterised by an abrupt warming within decades followed by a gradual cooling over hundreds to thousands of years. We have determined local temperature variations for DO-event 1 to 25 in Greenland based on δ15N measurements from the NorthGRIP ice core, corresponding to the period from 10 to 110 kyr b2k. The record is a composite of measurements from two laboratories, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Paris (DO 18 to 25) and the Climate and Environmental Physics Division of the Physics Institute of the University of Bern (DO 1 to 17) with new measurements from the beginning of the Holocene to DO 8. Temperature variations were reconstructed by reproducing the measured 15N/14N ratio of air enclosed in ice bubbles by the firn densification and heat diffusion model from Schwander. The reconstruction show temperature amplitudes for the DO-events ranging from 5 to 16 °C, thereby the corresponding rates of change can exceed 0.5 °C/decade. In order get an agreement between measured δ15N, Δdepth and Δage values with their modelled analogues, a lower accumulation rate than the one associated with the used ss09sea06bm1 time scale had to be assumed. We had to reduce the accumulation rate time dependently by 0 to nearly 40% with a mean reduction over the whole time period of 16%. With these adjustments both the Δdepth and the Δage values agree between model and measurements.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Growth temperature modulates the spatial variability of leaf morphology and chemical elements within crowns of climatically divergent Acer rubrum genotypes.

PubMed

Shahba, Mohamed A; Bauerle, William L

2009-07-01

Our understanding of leaf acclimation in relation to temperature of fully grown or juvenile tree crowns is mainly based on research involving spatially uncontrolled growth temperature. In this study, we test the hypothesis that leaf morphology and chemical elements are modulated by within-crown growth temperature differences. We ask whether within-species variation can influence acclimation to elevated temperatures. Within-crown temperature dependence of leaf morphology, carbon and nitrogen was examined in two genotypes of Acer rubrum L. (red maple) from different latitudes, where the mean annual temperature varies between 7.2 and 19.4 degrees C. Crown sections were grown in temperature-controlled chambers at three daytime growth temperatures (25, 33 and 38 degrees C). Leaf growth and resource acquisition were measured at regular intervals over long-term (50 days) controlled daytime growth temperatures. We found significant intraspecific variation in temperature dependence of leaf carbon and nitrogen accumulation between genotypes. Additionally, there was evidence that leaf morphology depended on inherited adaptation. Leaf dry matter and nitrogen content decreased as growth temperature was elevated above 25 degrees C in the genotype native to the cooler climate, whereas they remained fairly constant in response to temperature in the genotype native to the warmer climate. Specific leaf area (SLA) was correlated positively to leaf nitrogen content in both genotypes. The SLA and the relative leaf dry matter content (LM), on the other hand, were correlated negatively to leaf thickness. However, intraspecific variation in SLA and LM versus leaf thickness was highly significant. Intraspecific differences in leaf temperature response between climatically divergent genotypes yielded important implications for convergent evolution of leaf adaptation. Comparison of our results with those of previous studies showed that leaf carbon allocation along a vertical temperature gradient was modulated by growth temperature in the genotype native to the cooler climate. This indicates that within-crown temperature-induced variations in leaf morphology and chemical content should be accounted for in forest ecosystem models.

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Melillo, Jerry; Mohan, Jacqueline; Salk, Carl

2014-04-01

Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term cyclic variations and diurnal variations of the Venus upper atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keating, G. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Nicholson, J. Y.; Hinson, E. W.

1979-01-01

The vertical structure of the nighttime thermosphere and exosphere of Venus was discussed. A comparison of the day and nighttime profiles indicates, contrary to the model of Dickinson and Riley (1977), that densities (principally atomic oxygen) dropped sharply from day to night. It was suggested either that the lower estimates were related to cooler exospheric temperatures at night or that the atomic bulge was flatter than expected at lower altitudes. Large periodic oscillations, in both density and inferred exospheric temperatures, were detected with periods of 5 to 6 days. The possibility that cyclic variations in the thermosphere and stratosphere were caused by planetary-scale waves, propagated upward from the lower atmosphere, was investigated using simultaneous temperature measurements obtained by the Venus radiometric temperature experiment (VORTEX). Inferred exospheric temperatures in the morning were found to be lower than in the evening as if the atmosphere rotated in the direction of the planet's rotation, similar to that of earth. Superrotation of the thermosphere and exosphere was discussed as a possible extension of the 4-day cyclic atmospheric rotation near the cloud tops.

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

PubMed

Zheng, Xiaohui; Lian, Yi; Wang, Qiguang

2018-01-01

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

Oceanic Residual Depth Anomalies Maintained by a Shallow Asthenospheric Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N.

2016-12-01

Oceanic residual depth anomalies vary on wavelengths of 800-2,000 km and have amplitudesof ±1 km. There is also evidence from glacio-isostatic adjustment, plate motions and seismicanisotropy studies for the existence of a low-viscosity asthenospheric channel immediately beneaththe lithospheric plates. Here, we investigate whether global residual depth anomalies are consistentwith temperature variations within a sub-plate channel. For a given channel thickness, we convertresidual depth anomalies into temperature anomalies, assuming thermal isostasy alone (i.e. no mantle flow). Using aparameterisation that is calibrated against stacked oceanic shear wave velocity profiles, we convertthese temperature anomalies into velocity variations. We then compare the inferred velocity vari-ations with published seismic tomographic models. We find that thermal anomalies of ±100 °Cwithin a 150 ± 50 km thick channel yield a good match to > 95% of global residual depth anoma-lies. These temperature variations are consistent with geochemical evidence from mid-oceanic ridgebasalts and oceanic crustal thicknesses. The apparent success of this simple isostatic approach sup-ports the existence of a low-viscosity asthenospheric channel that plays a key role in controllingresidual depth anomalies. Far from subduction zones and from plume conduits, dynamic topog-raphy in the oceanic realm appears to be primarily controlled by temperature-induced buoyancyvariations within this channel.

A Time Dependent Model of HD209458b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iro, N.; Bézard, B.; Guillot, T.

2004-12-01

We developed a time-dependent radiative model for the atmosphere of HD209458b to investigate its thermal structure and chemical composition. Time-dependent temperature profiles were calculated, using a uniform zonal wind modelled as a solid body rotation. We predict day/night temperature variations of 600K around 0.1 bar, for a 1 km/s wind velocity, in good agreement with the predictions by Showman & Guillot (2002). On the night side, the low temperature allows the sodium to condense. Depletion of sodium in the morning limb may explain the lower than expected abundance found by Charbonneau et al. (2002).

Earth tides, volcanos and climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roosen, R. G.; Harrington, R. S.; Giles, J.; Browning, I.

1976-01-01

The effect of variations in tidal stresses on the earth caused by the sun and moon on volcanic activity and climate is investigated. A statistically significant correlation is found between the derivatives of the envelopes of peak tidal stresses at high northern latitudes and the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere as reflected in oxygen isotope ratios in the Greenland ice cap. It is suggested that variations in tidal stresses cause changes in the amount of stratospheric dust produced by volcanic activity, which affects the thickness of the stratospheric dust veil and the atmospheric radiation balance. For a simple model, periodic variations in tidal stress account for 13% of the variance in the ice-core temperature record.

Microwave thermal ablation: Effects of tissue properties variations on predictive models for treatment planning.

PubMed

Lopresto, Vanni; Pinto, Rosanna; Farina, Laura; Cavagnaro, Marta

2017-08-01

Microwave thermal ablation (MTA) therapy for cancer treatments relies on the absorption of electromagnetic energy at microwave frequencies to induce a very high and localized temperature increase, which causes an irreversible thermal damage in the target zone. Treatment planning in MTA is based on experimental observations of ablation zones in ex vivo tissue, while predicting the treatment outcomes could be greatly improved by reliable numerical models. In this work, a fully dynamical simulation model is exploited to look at effects of temperature-dependent variations in the dielectric and thermal properties of the targeted tissue on the prediction of the temperature increase and the extension of the thermally coagulated zone. In particular, the influence of measurement uncertainty of tissue parameters on the numerical results is investigated. Numerical data were compared with data from MTA experiments performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue at 2.45GHz, with a power of 60W applied for 10min. By including in the simulation model an uncertainty budget (CI=95%) of ±25% in the properties of the tissue due to inaccuracy of measurements, numerical results were achieved in the range of experimental data. Obtained results also showed that the specific heat especially influences the extension of the thermally coagulated zone, with an increase of 27% in length and 7% in diameter when a variation of -25% is considered with respect to the value of the reference simulation model. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A transported probability density function/photon Monte Carlo method for high-temperature oxy-natural gas combustion with spectral gas and wall radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X. Y.; Haworth, D. C.; Ren, T.; Modest, M. F.

2013-04-01

A computational fluid dynamics model for high-temperature oxy-natural gas combustion is developed and exercised. The model features detailed gas-phase chemistry and radiation treatments (a photon Monte Carlo method with line-by-line spectral resolution for gas and wall radiation - PMC/LBL) and a transported probability density function (PDF) method to account for turbulent fluctuations in composition and temperature. The model is first validated for a 0.8 MW oxy-natural gas furnace, and the level of agreement between model and experiment is found to be at least as good as any that has been published earlier. Next, simulations are performed with systematic model variations to provide insight into the roles of individual physical processes and their interplay in high-temperature oxy-fuel combustion. This includes variations in the chemical mechanism and the radiation model, and comparisons of results obtained with versus without the PDF method to isolate and quantify the effects of turbulence-chemistry interactions and turbulence-radiation interactions. In this combustion environment, it is found to be important to account for the interconversion of CO and CO2, and radiation plays a dominant role. The PMC/LBL model allows the effects of molecular gas radiation and wall radiation to be clearly separated and quantified. Radiation and chemistry are tightly coupled through the temperature, and correct temperature prediction is required for correct prediction of the CO/CO2 ratio. Turbulence-chemistry interactions influence the computed flame structure and mean CO levels. Strong local effects of turbulence-radiation interactions are found in the flame, but the net influence of TRI on computed mean temperature and species profiles is small. The ultimate goal of this research is to simulate high-temperature oxy-coal combustion, where accurate treatments of chemistry, radiation and turbulence-chemistry-particle-radiation interactions will be even more important.

Modeling the curing process of thick-section autoclave cured composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loos, A. C.; Dara, P. H.

1985-01-01

Temperature gradients are significant during cure of large area, thick-section composites. Such temperature gradients result in nonuniformly cured parts with high void contents, poor ply compaction, and variations in the fiber/resin distribution. A model was developed to determine the temperature distribution in thick-section autoclave cured composites. Using the model, long with temperature measurements obtained from the thick-section composites, the effects of various processing parameters on the thermal response of the composites were examined. A one-dimensional heat transfer model was constructed for the composite-tool assembly. The governing differential equations and associated boundary conditions describing one-dimensional unsteady heat-conduction in the composite, tool plate, and pressure plate are given. Solution of the thermal model was obtained using an implicit finite difference technique.

Bio-heat transfer model of electroconvulsive therapy: Effect of biological properties on induced temperature variation.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Marilia M; Wen, Paul; Ahfock, Tony

2016-08-01

A realistic human head model consisting of six tissue layers was modelled to investigate the behavior of temperature profile and magnitude when applying electroconvulsive therapy stimulation and different biological properties. The thermo-electrical model was constructed with the use of bio-heat transfer equation and Laplace equation. Three different electrode montages were analyzed as well as the influence of blood perfusion, metabolic heat and electric and thermal conductivity in the scalp. Also, the effect of including the fat layer was investigated. The results showed that temperature increase is inversely proportional to electrical and thermal conductivity increase. Furthermore, the inclusion of blood perfusion slightly drops the peak temperature. Finally, the inclusion of fat is highly recommended in order to acquire more realistic results from the thermo-electrical models.

Improving the spectral measurement accuracy based on temperature distribution and spectra-temperature relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Feng, Jinchao; Liu, Pengyu; Sun, Zhonghua; Li, Gang; Jia, Kebin

2018-05-01

Temperature is usually considered as a fluctuation in near-infrared spectral measurement. Chemometric methods were extensively studied to correct the effect of temperature variations. However, temperature can be considered as a constructive parameter that provides detailed chemical information when systematically changed during the measurement. Our group has researched the relationship between temperature-induced spectral variation (TSVC) and normalized squared temperature. In this study, we focused on the influence of temperature distribution in calibration set. Multi-temperature calibration set selection (MTCS) method was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy by considering the temperature distribution of calibration samples. Furthermore, double-temperature calibration set selection (DTCS) method was proposed based on MTCS method and the relationship between TSVC and normalized squared temperature. We compare the prediction performance of PLS models based on random sampling method and proposed methods. The results from experimental studies showed that the prediction performance was improved by using proposed methods. Therefore, MTCS method and DTCS method will be the alternative methods to improve prediction accuracy in near-infrared spectral measurement.

Comparison of kinetic models for atom recombination on high-temperature reusable surface insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willey, Ronald J.

1993-01-01

Five kinetic models are compared for their ability to predict recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms over high-temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI). Four of the models are derived using Rideal-Eley or Langmuir-Hinshelwood catalytic mechanisms to describe the reaction sequence. The fifth model is an empirical expression that offers certain features unattainable through mechanistic description. The results showed that a four-parameter model, with temperature as the only variable, works best with data currently available. The model describes recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms for temperatures from 300 to 1800 K. Kinetic models, with atom concentrations, demonstrate the influence of atom concentration on recombination coefficients. These models can be used for the prediction of heating rates due to catalytic recombination during re-entry or aerobraking maneuvers. The work further demonstrates a requirement for more recombination experiments in the temperature ranges of 300-1000 K, and 1500-1850 K, with deliberate concentration variation to verify model requirements.

(abstract) Variations in Polarimetric Backscatter of Saline Ice Grown Under Diurnal Thermal Cycling Condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Kwok, R.; Yueh, S. H.; Kong, J. A.; Hsu, C. C.; Ding, K. H.

1995-01-01

An experiment was carried out in January 1994 at the Geophysical Research Facility in the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. To investigate effects on polarimetric scattering signatures of sea ice growth under diurnal temperature variations, an ice sheet was grown for 2.5 days for the thickness of 10 cm and a polarimetric radar operating at C-band was used to obtain backscattering data in conjunction with ice-characterization measurements. The ice sheet was grown in the late morning of January 19, 1994. The initial growth rate was slow due to high insolation and temperature. As the air temperature dropped during the night, the growth rate increased significantly. The air temperature changed drastically from about -10(deg)C to -35(deg)C between day and night. The temperature cycle was repeated during the next day and the growth rate varied in the same manner. The surface of the ice was partially covered by frost flowers and the areal coverage increased as the ice became thicker. Throughout the ice growth duration of 2.5 days, polarimetric backscatter data were collected at roughly every centimeter of ice growth. For each set of radar measurements of saline ice, a set of calibration measurements was carried out with trihedrial corner reflectors and a metallic sphere. Measured polarimetric backscattering coefficients of the ice sheet reveal a strong correlation between radar data and temperature variations. As the temperature increased (decreased), the backscatter increased (decreased) correspondingly. From the ice-characterization data, temperatures of the air, at the ice-air interface, and in the ice layer had the same variation trend. Another interesting experimental observation is that the salinity measured as a function of ice depth from a sample of 10-cm thich ice indicated that the salinity variations had a similar cycle as the temperature; i.e., the salinity profile recorded the history of the temperature variations. Characterization data of the ice sheet are used in a theoretical model for scattering from saline ice with frost cover to explain the observed polarimetric signatures.

Use of indoor boars as models for understanding seasonal infertility: Preliminary data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study was conducted to evaluate the potential impacts of external temperature and relative humidity (RH) variations on semen production of boars maintained in thermo-regulated barns (indoor housing). Data were collected from a local commercial hog operation. Temperature and relative humidity (R...

Modeling Stream Temperatures with the Inclusion of Irradiance Change due to Forest Biomass Shifts.

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in stream temperature are directly and indirectly due to solar energy loading levels. Solar radiation is a significant environmental driver that impacts the quality and resilience of terrestrial and aquatic habitats, yet its spatiotemporal variations are complicated to mo...

Thermal biology of flight in a butterfly: genotype, flight metabolism, and environmental conditions.

PubMed

Mattila, Anniina L K

2015-12-01

Knowledge of the effects of thermal conditions on animal movement and dispersal is necessary for a mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change and habitat fragmentation. In particular, the flight of ectothermic insects such as small butterflies is greatly influenced by ambient temperature. Here, variation in body temperature during flight is investigated in an ecological model species, the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). Attention is paid on the effects of flight metabolism, genotypes at candidate loci, and environmental conditions. Measurements were made under a natural range of conditions using infrared thermal imaging. Heating of flight muscles by flight metabolism has been presumed to be negligible in small butterflies. However, the results demonstrate that Glanville fritillary males with high flight metabolic rate maintain elevated body temperature better during flight than males with a low rate of flight metabolism. This effect is likely to have a significant influence on the dispersal performance and fitness of butterflies and demonstrates the possible importance of intraspecific physiological variation on dispersal in other similar ectothermic insects. The results also suggest that individuals having an advantage in low ambient temperatures can be susceptible to overheating at high temperatures. Further, tolerance of high temperatures may be important for flight performance, as indicated by an association of heat-shock protein (Hsp70) genotype with flight metabolic rate and body temperature at takeoff. The dynamics of body temperature at flight and factors affecting it also differed significantly between female and male butterflies, indicating that thermal dynamics are governed by different mechanisms in the two sexes. This study contributes to knowledge about factors affecting intraspecific variation in dispersal-related thermal performance in butterflies and other insects. Such information is needed for predictive models of the evolution of dispersal in the face of habitat fragmentation and climate change.

Acoustic thermometry for detecting quenches in superconducting coils and conductor stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchevsky, M.; Gourlay, S. A.

2017-01-01

Quench detection capability is essential for reliable operation and protection of superconducting magnets, coils, cables, and machinery. We propose a quench detection technique based on sensing local temperature variations in the bulk of a superconducting winding by monitoring its transient acoustic response. Our approach is primarily aimed at coils and devices built with high-temperature superconductor materials where quench detection using standard voltage-based techniques may be inefficient due to the slow velocity of quench propagation. The acoustic sensing technique is non-invasive, fast, and capable of detecting temperature variations of less than 1 K in the interior of the superconductor cable stack in a 77 K cryogenic environment. We show results of finite element modeling and experiments conducted on a model superconductor stack demonstrating viability of the technique for practical quench detection, discuss sensitivity limits of the technique, and its various applications.

Heart rate variation and electroencephalograph--the potential physiological factors for thermal comfort study.

PubMed

Yao, Y; Lian, Z; Liu, W; Jiang, C; Liu, Y; Lu, H

2009-04-01

Human thermal comfort researches mainly focus on the relation between the environmental factors (e.g. ambient temperature, air humidity, and air velocity, etc.) and the thermal comfort sensation based on a large amount of subjective field investigations. Although some physiological factors, such as skin temperature and metabolism were used in many thermal comfort models,they are not enough to establish a perfect thermal comfort model. In this paper,another two physiological factors, i.e. heart rate variation (HRV) and electroencephalograph (EEG), are explored for the thermal comfort study. Experiments were performed to investigate how these physiological factors respond to the environmental temperatures, and what is the relationship between HRV and EEG and thermal comfort. The experimental results indicate that HRV and EEG may be related to thermal comfort, and they may be useful to understand the mechanism of thermal comfort.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Exchange of groundwater and surface-water mediated by permafrost response to seasonal and long term air temperature variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, S.; McKenzie, J.; Voss, C.; Wu, Q.

2011-01-01

Permafrost dynamics impact hydrologic cycle processes by promoting or impeding groundwater and surface water exchange. Under seasonal and decadal air temperature variations, permafrost temperature changes control the exchanges between groundwater and surface water. A coupled heat transport and groundwater flow model, SUTRA, was modified to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in the subsurface containing permafrost. The northern central Tibet Plateau was used as an example of model application. Modeling results show that in a yearly cycle, groundwater flow occurs in the active layer from May to October. Maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags the maximum subsurface temperature by two months. Under an increasing air temperature scenario of 3C per 100 years, over the initial 40-year period, the active layer thickness can increase by three-fold. Annual groundwater discharge to the surface can experience a similar three-fold increase in the same period. An implication of these modeling results is that with increased warming there will be more groundwater flow in the active layer and therefore increased groundwater discharge to rivers. However, this finding only holds if sufficient upgradient water is available to replenish the increased discharge. Otherwise, there will be an overall lowering of the water table in the recharge portion of the catchment. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Temperature fine-tunes Mediterranean Arabidopsis thaliana life-cycle phenology geographically.

PubMed

Marcer, A; Vidigal, D S; James, P M A; Fortin, M-J; Méndez-Vigo, B; Hilhorst, H W M; Bentsink, L; Alonso-Blanco, C; Picó, F X

2018-01-01

To understand how adaptive evolution in life-cycle phenology operates in plants, we need to unravel the effects of geographic variation in putative agents of natural selection on life-cycle phenology by considering all key developmental transitions and their co-variation patterns. We address this goal by quantifying the temperature-driven and geographically varying relationship between seed dormancy and flowering time in the annual Arabidopsis thaliana across the Iberian Peninsula. We used data on genetic variation in two major life-cycle traits, seed dormancy (DSDS50) and flowering time (FT), in a collection of 300 A. thaliana accessions from the Iberian Peninsula. The geographically varying relationship between life-cycle traits and minimum temperature, a major driver of variation in DSDS50 and FT, was explored with geographically weighted regressions (GWR). The environmentally varying correlation between DSDS50 and FT was analysed by means of sliding window analysis across a minimum temperature gradient. Maximum local adjustments between minimum temperature and life-cycle traits were obtained in the southwest Iberian Peninsula, an area with the highest minimum temperatures. In contrast, in off-southwest locations, the effects of minimum temperature on DSDS50 were rather constant across the region, whereas those of minimum temperature on FT were more variable, with peaks of strong local adjustments of GWR models in central and northwest Spain. Sliding window analysis identified a minimum temperature turning point in the relationship between DSDS50 and FT around a minimum temperature of 7.2 °C. Above this minimum temperature turning point, the variation in the FT/DSDS50 ratio became rapidly constrained and the negative correlation between FT and DSDS50 did not increase any further with increasing minimum temperatures. The southwest Iberian Peninsula emerges as an area where variation in life-cycle phenology appears to be restricted by the duration and severity of the hot summer drought. The temperature-driven varying relationship between DSDS50 and FT detected environmental boundaries for the co-evolution between FT and DSDS50 in A. thaliana. In the context of global warming, we conclude that A. thaliana phenology from the southwest Iberian Peninsula, determined by early flowering and deep seed dormancy, might become the most common life-cycle phenotype for this annual plant in the region. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Energy relaxation of intense laser pulse-produced plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab, M.; Abou-Koura, G. H.; El-Siragy, N. M.

2016-05-01

We describe a collisional radiative model (CRE) of homogeneously expanded nickel plasmas in vacuum. The CRE model is coupled with two separate electron and ion temperature magneto-hydrodynamic equations. On the output, the model provides the temporal variation of the electron temperature, ion temperature, and average charge state. We demonstrate the effect of three-body recombination ({∝}N_e T^{-9/2}_e) on plasma parameters, as it changes the time dependence of electron temperature from t^{-2} to t^{-1} and exhibits a pronounced effect leading to a freezing feature in the average charge state. In addition, the effect of the three-body recombination on the warm up of ions and delaying the equilibration is addressed.

Geomorphic determinants of species composition of alpine tundra, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

George P. Malanson,; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2012-01-01

Because the distribution of alpine tundra is associated with spatially limited cold climates, global warming may threaten its local extent or existence. This notion has been challenged, however, based on observations of the diversity of alpine tundra in small areas primarily due to topographic variation. The importance of diversity in temperature or moisture conditions caused by topographic variation is an open question, and we extend this to geomorphology more generally. The extent to which geomorphic variation per se, based on relatively easily assessed indicators, can account for the variation in alpine tundra community composition is analyzed versus the inclusion of broad indicators of regional climate variation. Visual assessments of topography are quantified and reduced using principal components analysis (PCA). Observations of species cover are reduced using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). A “best subsets” regression approach using the Akaike Information Criterion for selection of variables is compared to a simple stepwise regression with DCA scores as the dependent variable and scores on significant PCA axes plus more direct measures of topography as independent variables. Models with geographic coordinates (representing regional climate gradients) excluded explain almost as much variation in community composition as models with them included, although they are important contributors to the latter. The geomorphic variables in the model are those associated with local moisture differences such as snowbeds. The potential local variability of alpine tundra can be a buffer against climate change, but change in precipitation may be as important as change in temperature.

Effects of wintertime atmospheric river landfalls on surface air temperatures in the Western US: Analyses and model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R.

2016-12-01

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the wintertime surface air temperatures as shown in earlier studies. The AR-related surface air temperatures can exert significant influence on the hydrology in the US Pacific coast region especially through rainfall-snowfall partitioning and the snowpack in high elevation watersheds as they are directly related with the freezing-level altitudes. These effects of temperature perturbations can in turn affect hydrologic events of various time scales such as flash flooding by the combined effects of rainfall and snowmelt, and the warm season runoff from melting snowpack, especially in conjunction with the AR effects on winter precipitation and rain-on-snow events in WUS. Thus, understanding the effects of AR landfalls on the surface temperatures and examining the capability of climate models in simulating these effects are an important practical concern for WUS. This study aims to understand the effects of AR landfalls on the characteristics of surface air temperatures in WUS, especially seasonal means and PDFs and to evaluate the fidelity of model data produced in the NASA downscaling experiment for the 10 winters from Nov. 1999 to Mar. 2010 using an AR-landfall chronology based on the vertically-integrated water vapor flux calculated from the MERRA2 reanalysis. Model skill is measured using metrics including regional means, a skill score based on correlations and mean-square errors, the similarity between two PDF shapes, and Taylor diagrams. Results show that the AR landfalls are related with higher surface air temperatures in WUS, especially in inland regions. The AR landfalls also reduce the range of surface air temperature PDF, largely by reducing the events in the lower temperature range. The shift in the surface air temperature PDF is consistent with the positive anomalies in the winter-mean temperature. Model data from the NASA downscaling experiment reproduce the AR effects on the temperature PDF, at least qualitatively; however, the skill in representing the spatial variations in the temperature anomalies is low. The skill of these model data also varies according to regions and the configuration of simulations. It was also found that the variations in model skill in simulating the spatial variability according to the model resolution is not systematic.

Numerical solution of non-linear dual-phase-lag bioheat transfer equation within skin tissues.

PubMed

Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, P; Rai, K N

2017-11-01

This paper deals with numerical modeling and simulation of heat transfer in skin tissues using non-linear dual-phase-lag (DPL) bioheat transfer model under periodic heat flux boundary condition. The blood perfusion is assumed temperature-dependent which results in non-linear DPL bioheat transfer model in order to predict more accurate results. A numerical method of line which is based on finite difference and Runge-Kutta (4,5) schemes, is used to solve the present non-linear problem. Under specific case, the exact solution has been obtained and compared with the present numerical scheme, and we found that those are in good agreement. A comparison based on model selection criterion (AIC) has been made among non-linear DPL models when the variation of blood perfusion rate with temperature is of constant, linear and exponential type with the experimental data and it has been found that non-linear DPL model with exponential variation of blood perfusion rate is closest to the experimental data. In addition, it is found that due to absence of phase-lag phenomena in Pennes bioheat transfer model, it achieves steady state more quickly and always predict higher temperature than thermal and DPL non-linear models. The effect of coefficient of blood perfusion rate, dimensionless heating frequency and Kirchoff number on dimensionless temperature distribution has also been analyzed. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of soil moisture on seasonal variation in indoor radon concentration: modelling and measurements in 326 Finnish houses

PubMed Central

Arvela, H.; Holmgren, O.; Hänninen, P.

2016-01-01

The effect of soil moisture on seasonal variation in soil air and indoor radon is studied. A brief review of the theory of the effect of soil moisture on soil air radon has been presented. The theoretical estimates, together with soil moisture measurements over a period of 10 y, indicate that variation in soil moisture evidently is an important factor affecting the seasonal variation in soil air radon concentration. Partitioning of radon gas between the water and air fractions of soil pores is the main factor increasing soil air radon concentration. On two example test sites, the relative standard deviation of the calculated monthly average soil air radon concentration was 17 and 26 %. Increased soil moisture in autumn and spring, after the snowmelt, increases soil gas radon concentrations by 10–20 %. In February and March, the soil gas radon concentration is in its minimum. Soil temperature is also an important factor. High soil temperature in summer increased the calculated soil gas radon concentration by 14 %, compared with winter values. The monthly indoor radon measurements over period of 1 y in 326 Finnish houses are presented and compared with the modelling results. The model takes into account radon entry, climate and air exchange. The measured radon concentrations in autumn and spring were higher than expected and it can be explained by the seasonal variation in the soil moisture. The variation in soil moisture is a potential factor affecting markedly to the high year-to-year variation in the annual or seasonal average radon concentrations, observed in many radon studies. PMID:25899611

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

PubMed Central

Knight, Christopher G.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.; Massey, Neil; Aina, Tolu; Christensen, Carl; Frame, Dave J.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.; Martin, Andrew; Pascoe, Stephen; Sanderson, Ben; Stainforth, David A.; Allen, Myles R.

2007-01-01

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally. PMID:17640921

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E

2017-02-01

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Modelling the variation of land surface temperature as determinant of risk of heat-related health events

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The evaluation of exposure to ambient temperatures in epidemiological studies has generally been based on records from meteorological stations which may not adequately represent local temperature variability. Here we propose a spatially explicit model to estimate local exposure to temperatures of large populations under various meteorological conditions based on satellite and meteorological data. Methods A general linear model was used to estimate surface temperatures using 15 LANDSAT 5 and LANDSAT 7 images for Quebec Province, Canada between 1987 and 2002 and spanning the months of June to August. The images encompassed both rural and urban landscapes and predictors included: meteorological records of temperature and wind speed, distance to major water bodies, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover (built and bare land, water, or vegetation), latitude, longitude, and week of the year. Results The model explained 77% of the variance in surface temperature, accounting for both temporal and spatial variations. The standard error of estimates was 1.42°C. Land cover and NDVI were strong predictors of surface temperature. Conclusions This study suggests that a statistical approach to estimating surface temperature incorporating both spatially explicit satellite data and time-varying meteorological data may be relevant to assessing exposure to heat during the warm season in the Quebec. By allowing the estimation of space- and time-specific surface temperatures, this model may also be used to assess the possible impacts of land use changes under various meteorological conditions. It can be applied to assess heat exposure within a large population and at relatively fine-grained scale. It may be used to evaluate the acute health effect of heat exposure over long time frames. The method proposed here could be replicated in other areas around the globe for which satellite data and meteorological data is available. PMID:21251286

Seasonal variations of water vapor in the tropical lower statosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Holton, James R.; Harwood, Robert S.; Waters, Joe W.

1995-01-01

Measurments of stratospheric water vapor by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) show that in the tropical lower statosphere, low-frequency variations are closely related to the annual cycle in tropical tropopause temperatures. Tropical stratospheric air appears to retain information about the tropopause conditions it enconters for over a year as it rises through the stratosphere. A two-dimensional Lagrangian model is used to relate MLS measurements to the temperature that tropical air parcels encounter when crossing the 100 hPa surface.

An Inversion of Gravity and Topography for Mantle and Crustal Structure on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiefer, Walter S.; Bills, Bruce G.; Nerem, R. Steven

1996-01-01

Analysis of the gravity and topography of Mars presently provides our primary quantitative constraints on the internal structure of Mars. We present an inversion of the long-wavelength (harmonic degree less than or equal to 10) gravity and topography of Mars for lateral variations of mantle temperature and crustal thickness. Our formulation incorporates both viscous mantle flow (which most prior studies have neglected) and isostatically compensated density anomalies in the crust and lithosphere. Our nominal model has a 150-km-thick high-viscosity surface layer over an isoviscous mantle, with a core radius of 1840 km. It predicts lateral temperature variations of up to a few hundred degrees Kelvin relative to the mean mantle temperature, with high temperature under Tharsis and to a lesser extent under Elysium and cool temperatures elsewhere. Surprisingly, the model predicts crustal thinning beneath Tharsis. If correct, this implies that thinning of the crust by mantle shear stresses dominates over thickening of the crust by volcanism. The major impact basins (Hellas, Argyre, Isidis, Chryse, and Utopia) are regions of crustal thinning, as expected. Utopia is also predicted to be a region of hot mantle, which is hard to reconcile with the surface geology. An alternative model for Utopia treats it as a mascon basin. The Utopia gravity anomaly is consistent with the presence of a 1.2 to 1.6 km thick layer of uncompensated basalt, in good agreement with geologic arguments about the amount of volcanic fill in this area. The mantle thermal structure is the dominant contributor to the observed geoid in our inversion. The mantle also dominates the topography at the longest wavelengths, but shorter wavelengths (harmonic degrees greater than or equal to 4) are dominated by the crustal structure. Because of the uncertainty about the appropriate numerical values for some of the model's input parameters, we have examined the sensitivity of the model results to the planetary structural model (core radius and core and mantle densities), the mantle's viscosity stratification, and the mean crustal thickness. The model results are insensitive to the specific thickness or viscosity contrast of the high-viscosity surface layer and to the mean crustal thickness in the range 25 to 100 km. Models with a large core radius or with an upper mantle low-viscosity zone require implausibly large lateral variations in mantle temperature.

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.; Semtner, A. J., Jr.

1984-01-01

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Observation of temperatures and emission rates from the OH and O 2 nightglow over a southern high latitude station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, J.-K.; Kim, Y. H.; Won, Y.-I.; Moon, B. K.; Oh, T. H.

2006-01-01

A Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) was operated at King Sejong Station (62°13'S, 58°47'W), Korea Antarctic Research Station during the period of March, 2002-September, 2003. We analyze rotational temperatures and emission rates of the O 2 (0-1) and OH (6-2) nightglows obtained at 67 nights with clear sky lasting more than 4 h. A spectral analysis of the dataset shows two dominant oscillations with periods of 4 and 6 h. The 6-h oscillations have a nearly constant phase, whereas the 4-h oscillations have nearly random phases. Although the harmonic periods of both oscillations are suggestive of tidal origin, the 4-h oscillation may have interference by other sources such as gravity waves. The 6-h oscillations could be interpreted as zonally symmetric non-migrating tides because migrating tides except high order modes have very weak amplitudes at high latitudes according to the classical tidal theory. For most cases of the observed oscillations the temperature peak leads the intensity peak, which is consistent with theoretical models for zonally symmetric tides, but contrary to other theoretical models for waves. It is needed to resolve among theoretical models whether or not zonally symmetric tide cause temperature variation prior to intensity variation in mesospheric airglows.

Electrical properties, phase transitions and conduction mechanisms of the [(C2H5)NH3]2CdCl4 compound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamed, C. Ben; Karoui, K.; Saidi, S.; Guidara, K.; Rhaiem, A. Ben

2014-10-01

The [(C2H5)NH3]2CdCl4 hybrid material was prepared and its calorimetric study and electric properties were investigated at low temperature. The X-ray powder diffractogram has shown that the compound is crystallized in the orthorhombic system with Abma space group, and the refined unit cell parameters are a=7.546 Å, b=7.443 Å, and c=21.831 Å. The calorimetric study has revealed two endothermic peaks at 216 K and 357 K, which are confirmed by the variation of fp and σdc as a function of temperature. The equivalent circuit based on the Z-View-software was proposed and the conduction mechanisms were determined. The obtained results have been discussed in terms of the correlated barrier hopping model (CBH) in phase I (low temperature (OLT)), non-overlapping small polaron tunneling model (NSPT) in phase II (room temperature (ORT)) and the overlapping large polaron tunneling model in phase III (high temperature (OHT)). The density of localized states NF(E) at the Fermi level and the binding energy Wm were calculated. The variation of the dielectric loss log(εʺ) with log(ω) was found to follow the empirical law, ε″=B ωm(T).

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity.

PubMed

Mercado, Lina M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Huntingford, Chris; Oliver, Rebecca J; Clark, Douglas B; Sitch, Stephen; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Kattge, Jens; Harper, Anna B; Cox, Peter M

2018-06-01

Plant temperature responses vary geographically, reflecting thermally contrasting habitats and long-term species adaptations to their climate of origin. Plants also can acclimate to fast temporal changes in temperature regime to mitigate stress. Although plant photosynthetic responses are known to acclimate to temperature, many global models used to predict future vegetation and climate-carbon interactions do not include this process. We quantify the global and regional impacts of biogeographical variability and thermal acclimation of temperature response of photosynthetic capacity on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle between 1860 and 2100 within a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, that emulates 22 global climate models. Results indicate that inclusion of biogeographical variation in photosynthetic temperature response is most important for present-day and future C uptake, with increasing importance of thermal acclimation under future warming. Accounting for both effects narrows the range of predictions of the simulated global land C storage in 2100 across climate projections (29% and 43% globally and in the tropics, respectively). Contrary to earlier studies, our results suggest that thermal acclimation of photosynthetic capacity makes tropical and temperate C less vulnerable to warming, but reduces the warming-induced C uptake in the boreal region under elevated CO 2 . © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Density functional and theoretical study of the temperature and pressure dependency of the plasmon energy of solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attarian Shandiz, M., E-mail: mohammad.attarianshandiz@mail.mcgill.ca; Gauvin, R.

The temperature and pressure dependency of the volume plasmon energy of solids was investigated by density functional theory calculations. The volume change of crystal is the major factor responsible for the variation of valence electron density and plasmon energy in the free electron model. Hence, to introduce the effect of temperature and pressure for the density functional theory calculations of plasmon energy, the temperature and pressure dependency of lattice parameter was used. Also, by combination of the free electron model and the equation of state based on the pseudo-spinodal approach, the temperature and pressure dependency of the plasmon energy wasmore » modeled. The suggested model is in good agreement with the results of density functional theory calculations and available experimental data for elements with the free electron behavior.« less

A novel multiphysic model for simulation of swelling equilibrium of ionized thermal-stimulus responsive hydrogels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hua; Wang, Xiaogui; Yan, Guoping; Lam, K. Y.; Cheng, Sixue; Zou, Tao; Zhuo, Renxi

2005-03-01

In this paper, a novel multiphysic mathematical model is developed for simulation of swelling equilibrium of ionized temperature sensitive hydrogels with the volume phase transition, and it is termed the multi-effect-coupling thermal-stimulus (MECtherm) model. This model consists of the steady-state Nernst-Planck equation, Poisson equation and swelling equilibrium governing equation based on the Flory's mean field theory, in which two types of polymer-solvent interaction parameters, as the functions of temperature and polymer-network volume fraction, are specified with or without consideration of the hydrogen bond interaction. In order to examine the MECtherm model consisting of nonlinear partial differential equations, a meshless Hermite-Cloud method is used for numerical solution of one-dimensional swelling equilibrium of thermal-stimulus responsive hydrogels immersed in a bathing solution. The computed results are in very good agreements with experimental data for the variation of volume swelling ratio with temperature. The influences of the salt concentration and initial fixed-charge density are discussed in detail on the variations of volume swelling ratio of hydrogels, mobile ion concentrations and electric potential of both interior hydrogels and exterior bathing solution.

The Implications of Temperature-Mediated Plasticity in Larval Instar Number for Development within a Marine Invertebrate, the Shrimp Palaemonetes varians

PubMed Central

Oliphant, Andrew; Hauton, Chris; Thatje, Sven

2013-01-01

Variations in larval instar number are common among arthropods. Here, we assess the implications of temperature-mediated variations in larval instar number for larval development time, larval growth rates, and juvenile dry weight within the palaemonid shrimp, Palaemonetes varians. In contrast with previous literature, which focuses on terrestrial arthropods, particularly model and pest species often of laboratory lines, we use wild shrimp, which differ in their life history from previous models. Newly-hatched P. varians larvae were first reared at 5, 10, 17, 25, and 30°C to assess their thermal scope for development. Larvae developed at 17, 25, and 30°C. At higher temperatures, larvae developed through fewer larval instars. Two dominant developmental pathways were observed; a short pathway of four instars and a long pathway of five instars. Longer developmental pathways of six to seven instars were rarely observed (mostly at lower temperatures) and consisted of additional instars as ‘repeat’ instars; i.e. little developmental advance over the preceding instar. To assess the implications of temperature-mediated variation in larval instar number, newly-hatched larvae were then reared at 15, 20, and 25°C. Again, the proportion of larvae developing through four instars increased with temperature. At all temperatures, larval development time and juvenile dry weight were greater for larvae developing through five instars. Importantly, because of the increasing proportion of larvae developing through four instars with increasing temperature, larval traits associated with this pathway (reduced development time and juvenile dry weight) became more dominant. As a consequence of increasing growth rate with temperature, and the shift in the proportion of larvae developing through four instars, juvenile dry weight was greatest at intermediate temperatures (20°C). We conclude that at settlement P. varians juveniles do not follow the temperature-size rule; this is of importance for life-history ecology in response to environmental change, as well as for aquaculture applications. PMID:24069450

The implications of temperature-mediated plasticity in larval instar number for development within a marine invertebrate, the shrimp Palaemonetes varians.

PubMed

Oliphant, Andrew; Hauton, Chris; Thatje, Sven

2013-01-01

Variations in larval instar number are common among arthropods. Here, we assess the implications of temperature-mediated variations in larval instar number for larval development time, larval growth rates, and juvenile dry weight within the palaemonid shrimp, Palaemonetes varians. In contrast with previous literature, which focuses on terrestrial arthropods, particularly model and pest species often of laboratory lines, we use wild shrimp, which differ in their life history from previous models. Newly-hatched P. varians larvae were first reared at 5, 10, 17, 25, and 30 °C to assess their thermal scope for development. Larvae developed at 17, 25, and 30 °C. At higher temperatures, larvae developed through fewer larval instars. Two dominant developmental pathways were observed; a short pathway of four instars and a long pathway of five instars. Longer developmental pathways of six to seven instars were rarely observed (mostly at lower temperatures) and consisted of additional instars as 'repeat' instars; i.e. little developmental advance over the preceding instar. To assess the implications of temperature-mediated variation in larval instar number, newly-hatched larvae were then reared at 15, 20, and 25 °C. Again, the proportion of larvae developing through four instars increased with temperature. At all temperatures, larval development time and juvenile dry weight were greater for larvae developing through five instars. Importantly, because of the increasing proportion of larvae developing through four instars with increasing temperature, larval traits associated with this pathway (reduced development time and juvenile dry weight) became more dominant. As a consequence of increasing growth rate with temperature, and the shift in the proportion of larvae developing through four instars, juvenile dry weight was greatest at intermediate temperatures (20 °C). We conclude that at settlement P. varians juveniles do not follow the temperature-size rule; this is of importance for life-history ecology in response to environmental change, as well as for aquaculture applications.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reference breast temperature: proposal of an equation

PubMed Central

de Souza, Gladis Aparecida Galindo Reisemberger; Brioschi, Marcos Leal; Vargas, José Viriato Coelho; Morais, Keli Cristiane Correia; Dalmaso, Carlos; Neves, Eduardo Borba

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To develop an equation to estimate the breast reference temperature according to the variation of room and core body temperatures. Methods Four asymptomatic women were evaluated for three consecutive menstrual cycles. Using thermography, the temperature of breasts and eyes was measured as indirect reference of core body and room temperatures. To analyze the thermal behavior of the breasts during the cycle, the core body and room temperatures were normalized by means of a mathematical equation. Results We performed 180 observations and the core temperature had the highest correlation with the breast temperature, followed by room temperature. The proposed prediction model could explain 45.3% of the breast temperature variation, with variable room temperature variable; it can be accepted as a way to estimate the reference breast temperature at different room temperatures. Conclusion The average breast temperature in healthy women had a direct relation with the core and room temperature and can be estimated mathematically. It is suggested that an equation could be used in clinical practice to estimate the normal breast reference temperature in young women, regardless of the day of the cycle, therefore assisting in evaluation of anatomical studies. PMID:26761549

An influence of solar activity on latitudinal distribution of atmospheric ozone and temperature in 2-D radiative-photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyominov, I. G.

1989-01-01

On the basis of the 2-D radiative-photochemical model of the ozone layer at heights 0 to 60 km in the Northern Hemisphere there are revealed and analyzed in detail the characteristic features of the season-altitude-latitude variations of ozone and temperature due to changes of the solar flux during the 11 year cycle, electron and proton precipitations.

Mars dayside temperature from airglow limb profiles : comparison with in situ measurements and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gérard, Jean-Claude; Bougher, Stephen; Montmessin, Franck; Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Stiepen, A.

The thermal structure of the Mars upper atmosphere is the result of the thermal balance between heating by EUV solar radiation, infrared heating and cooling, conduction and dynamic influences such as gravity waves, planetary waves, and tides. It has been derived from observations performed from different spacecraft. These include in situ measurements of orbital drag whose strength depends on the local gas density. Atmospheric temperatures were determined from the altitude variation of the density measured in situ by the Viking landers and orbital drag measurements. Another method is based on remote sensing measurements of ultraviolet airglow limb profiles obtained over 40 years ago with spectrometers during the Mariner 6 and 7 flybys and from the Mariner 9 orbiter. Comparisons with model calculations indicate that they both reflect the CO_2 scale height from which atmospheric temperatures have been deduced. Upper atmospheric temperatures varying over the wide range 270-445 K, with a mean value of 325 K were deduced from the topside scale height of the airglow vertical profile. We present an analysis of limb profiles of the CO Cameron (a(3) Pi-X(1) Sigma(+) ) and CO_2(+) doublet (B(2) Sigma_u(+) - X(2) PiΠ_g) airglows observed with the SPICAM instrument on board Mars Express. We show that the temperature in the Mars thermosphere is very variable with a mean value of 270 K, but values ranging between 150 and 400 K have been observed. These values are compared to earlier determinations and model predictions. No clear dependence on solar zenith angle, latitude or season is apparent. Similarly, exospheric variations with F10.7 in the SPICAM airglow dataset are small over the solar minimum to moderate conditions sampled by Mars Express since 2005. We conclude that an unidentified process is the cause of the large observed temperature variability, which dominates the other sources of temperature variations.

Stirling Convertor Performance Mapping Test Results for Future Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Songgang; Peterson, Allen A.; Faultersack, Franklyn D.; Redinger, Darin L.; Augenblick, John E.

2004-02-01

Long-life radioisotope-fueled generators based on free-piston Stirling convertors are an energy-conversion solution for future space applications. The high efficiency of Stirling machines makes them more attractive than the thermoelectric generators currently used in space. Stirling Technology Company (STC) has been performance-testing its Stirling generators to provide data for potential system integration contractors. This paper describes the most recent test results from the STC RemoteGen™ 55 W-class Stirling generators (RG-55). Comparisons are made between the new data and previous Stirling thermodynamic simulation models. Performance-mapping tests are presented including variations in: internal charge pressure, cold end temperature, hot end temperature, alternator temperature, input power, and variation of control voltage.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mowll, Whitney; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Cherwin, Karie; Smith, Anine; Symstad, Amy J.; Vermeire, Lance; Collins, Scott L.; Smith, Melinda D.; Knapp, Alan K.

2015-01-01

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands. Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will grassland ANPP be to warming? We evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data (67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT; ~7-14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250-500 mm) gradients. Weused regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature sensitivity of ANPP. We also related ANPP to the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), which combines precipitation and evapotranspiration to better represent moisture available for plant growth. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly related to ANPP as precipitation. We conclude that forecasted warming likely will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.

Wall-temperature effects on the aerodynamics of a hydrogen-fueled transport concept in Mach 8 blowdown and shock tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penland, J. A.; Marcum, D. C., Jr.; Stack, S. H.

1983-01-01

Results are presented from two separate tests on the same blended wing-body hydrogen fueled transport model at a Mach number of about 8 and a range of Reynolds numbers (based on theoretical body length) of 0.597 x 10 to the 6th power to about 156.22 x 10 to the 6th power. Tests were made in conventional hypersonic blowdown tunnel and a hypersonic shock tunnel at angles of attack of -2 deg to about 8 deg, with an extensive study made at a constant angle of attack of 3 deg. The model boundary-layer flow varied from laminar at the lower Reynolds numbers to predominantly turbulent at the higher Reynolds numbers. Model wall temperatures and stream static temperatures varied widely between the two tests, particularly at the lower Reynolds numbers. These temperature differences resulted in marked variations of the axial-force coefficients between the two tests, due in part to the effects of induced pressure and viscous interaction variations. The normal-force coefficient was essentially independent of Reynolds number. Analysis of results utilized current theoretical computer programs and basic boundary-layer theory.

A variational theory of Hall effect of Anderson lattice model: Application to colossal magnetoresistance manganites (Re1-x Ax MnO3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panwar, Sunil; Kumar, Vijay; Singh, Ishwar

2017-10-01

An anomalous Hall constant RH has been observed in various rare earth manganites doped with alkaline earths namely Re1-xAxMnO3 (where Re = La, Pr, Nd etc., and A = Ca, Sr, Ba etc.) which exhibit colossal magnetoresistance (CMR), metal- insulator transition and many other poorly understood phenomena. We show that this phenomenon of anomalous Hall constant can be understood using two band (ℓ-b) Anderson lattice model Hamiltonian alongwith (ℓ-b) hybridization recently studied by us for manganites in the strong electron-lattice Jahn-Teller (JT) coupling regime an approach similar to the two - fluid models. We use a variational method in this work to study the temperature variation of Hall constant RH (T) in these compounds. We have already used this variational method to study the zero field electrical resistivity ρ (T) and magnetic susceptibility of doped CMR manganites. In the present study, we find that the Hall constant RH (T) reduces with increasing magnetic field parameters h&m and the metal-insulator transition temperature (Tρ) shifts towards higher temperature region. We have also observed the role of the model parameters e.g. local Coulomb repulsion U, Hund's rule coupling JH between eg spins and t2g spins, ferromagnetic nearest neighbor exchange coupling JF between t2g core spins and hybridization Vk between ℓ-polarons and d-electrons on Hall constant RH (T) of these materials at different magnetic fields. Here we find that RH (T) for a particular value of h and m shows a rapid initial increase, followed by a sharp peak at low temperature say 50 K in our case and a slow decrease at high temperatures, resembling with the key feature of many CMR compounds like La0.8Ba0.2 MnO3.The magnitude of RH (T) reduces and the anomaly (sharp peak) in RH becomes broader and shifts towards higher temperature region on increasing Vk or JH or doping x and even vanishes on further increasing these parameters. Our results of anomalous Hall constant (RH) have same qualitative behavior as the zero-field electrical resistivity. Moreover Hall Constant (RH) shows positive values indicating that the carriers in these manganites are holes.

Spatial-temporal analysis of building surface temperatures in Hung Hom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Ying; Shen, Yueqian

2015-12-01

This thesis presents a study on spatial-temporal analysis of building surface temperatures in Hung Hom. Observations were collected from Aug 2013 to Oct 2013 at a 30-min interval, using iButton sensors (N=20) covering twelve locations in Hung Hom. And thermal images were captured in PolyU from 05 Aug 2013 to 06 Aug 2013. A linear regression model of iButton and thermal records is established to calibrate temperature data. A 3D modeling system is developed based on Visual Studio 2010 development platform, using ArcEngine10.0 component, Microsoft Access 2010 database and C# programming language. The system realizes processing data, spatial analysis, compound query and 3D face temperature rendering and so on. After statistical analyses, building face azimuths are found to have a statistically significant relationship with sun azimuths at peak time. And seasonal building temperature changing also corresponds to the sun angle and sun azimuth variations. Building materials are found to have a significant effect on building surface temperatures. Buildings with lower albedo materials tend to have higher temperatures and larger thermal conductivity material have significant diurnal variations. For the geographical locations, the peripheral faces of campus have higher temperatures than the inner faces during day time and buildings located at the southeast are cooler than the western. Furthermore, human activity is found to have a strong relationship with building surface temperatures through weekday and weekend comparison.

A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations

PubMed Central

Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bhend, Jonas; Brugnara, Yuri

2017-01-01

Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided. PMID:28585926

Blazhko modulation in the infrared

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurcsik, J.; Hajdu, G.; Dékány, I.; Nuspl, J.; Catelan, M.; Grebel, E. K.

2018-04-01

We present first direct evidence of modulation in the K band of Blazhko-type RR Lyrae stars that are identified by their secular modulations in the I-band data of Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-IV. A method has been developed to decompose the K-band light variation into two parts originating from the temperature and the radius changes using synthetic data of atmosphere-model grids. The amplitudes of the temperature and the radius variations derived from the method for non-Blazhko RRab stars are in very good agreement with the results of the Baade-Wesselink analysis of RRab stars in the M3 globular cluster confirming the applicability and correctness of the method. It has been found that the Blazhko modulation is primarily driven by the change in the temperature variation. The radius variation plays a marginal part, moreover it has an opposite sign as if the Blazhko effect was caused by the radii variations. This result reinforces the previous finding based on the Baade-Wesselink analysis of M3 (NGC 5272) RR Lyrae, that significant modulation of the radius variations can only be detected in radial-velocity measurements, which relies on spectral lines that form in the uppermost atmospheric layers. Our result gives the first insight into the energetics and dynamics of the Blazhko phenomenon, hence it puts strong constraints on its possible physical explanations.

Performance characteristics of an electric vehicle lead-acid battery pack at elevated temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, P.

1982-01-01

Discharge testing data electric car battery pack over initial electrolyte temperature variations between 27 and 55 C are presented. The tests were conducted under laboratory conditions and then compared to detailed electric vehicle simulation models. Battery discharge capacity increased with temperature for constant current discharges, and battery energy capacity increased with temperature for constant power discharges. Dynamometer tests of the electric test vehicle showed an increase in range of 25% for the higher electrolyte temperature.

Periodical climate variations and their impact on Earth rotation for the last 800Kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapanov, Yavor; Gambis, Daniel

2010-05-01

The Earth rotation variations are highly affected by climatic variations associated with the glacial cycles in the late Pleistocene. The processes of glaciation, followed by ice melting, are connected with significant changes of the mean sea level. These processes redistribute great amount of water masses between oceans and ice sheets, which lead to changes of the axial moment of inertia and corresponding variations of the Universal Time UT1 and Length of Day LOD, according to the law of angular momentum conservation. The climatic variations for the last 800Kyr are analyzed by means of time series of temperature changes, determined by deuterium data from Antarctica ice core. Reconstructed glacial sea level variations for the last 380Kyr, determined by the sediments from the Red sea, are used, too. Common periodicities of the temperature and mean sea level variations are determined. Time series of the long-periodical UT1 and LOD oscillations for the last 380Kyr and 800Kyr are reconstructed by means of empirical hydrological model of global water redistribution between the ocean and ice sheets during the last glacial events.

Quantification of temperature effect on impedance monitoring via PZT interface for prestressed tendon anchorage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, Thanh-Canh; Kim, Jeong-Tae

2017-12-01

In this study, the quantification of temperature effect on impedance monitoring via a PZT interface for prestressed tendon-anchorage is presented. Firstly, a PZT interface-based impedance monitoring technique is selected to monitor impedance signatures by predetermining sensitive frequency bands. An analytical model is designed to represent coupled dynamic responses of the PZT interface-tendon anchorage system. Secondly, experiments on a lab-scaled tendon anchorage are described. Impedance signatures are measured via the PZT interface for a series of temperature and prestress-force changes. Thirdly, temperature effects on measured impedance responses of the tendon anchorage are estimated by quantifying relative changes in impedance features (such as RMSD and CCD indices) induced by temperature variation and prestress-force change. Finally, finite element analyses are conducted to investigate the mechanism of temperature variation and prestress-loss effects on the impedance responses of prestressed tendon anchorage. Temperature effects on impedance monitoring are filtered by effective frequency shift-based algorithm for distinguishing prestress-loss effects on impedance signatures.

The second peak effect and vortex pinning mechanisms in Ba(Fe,Ni)2As2 superconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbani, S. R.; Arabi, H.; Wang, X. L.

2017-09-01

Vortex pinning mechanisms have been studied systematically in BaFe1.9Ni0.1As2 single crystal as a function of temperature and magnetic field. The obtained shielding current density, Js, showed a second peak in the intermediate magnetic field range at high temperatures. The temperature dependence of the shielding current density, Js(T), was analysed within the collective pinning model at different magnetic fields. It was found that the second peak reflects the coexistence of both δl pinning, reflecting spatial variation in the mean free path (l), and δTc pinning, reflecting spatial variation in the superconducting critical temperature (Tc) at low temperature and low magnetic fields in BaFe1.9Ni0.1As2 single crystal. The results clearly show that pinning mechanism effects are strongly temperature and magnetic field dependent, and the second peak effect is more powerful at higher temperatures and magnetic fields. It was also found that the magnetic field mainly controls the pinning mechanism effect.

The effect of the solar rotational irradiance variation on the middle and upper atmosphere calculated by a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.; Schmidt, H.; Brasseur, G. P.

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of the solar rotational (27-day) irradiance variations on the chemical composition and temperature of the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere as simulated by the three-dimensional chemistry-climate model HAMMONIA. Different methods are used to analyze the model results, including high resolution spectral and cross-spectral techniques. To force the simulations, an idealized irradiance variation with a constant period of 27 days (apparent solar rotation period) and with constant amplitude is used. While the calculated thermal and chemical responses are very distinct and permanent in the upper atmosphere, the responses in the stratosphere and mesosphere vary considerably in time despite the constant forcing. The responses produced by the model exhibit a non-linear behavior: in general, the response sensitivities (not amplitudes) decrease with increasing amplitude of the forcing. In the extratropics the responses are, in general, seasonally dependent with frequently stronger sensitivities in winter than in summer. Amplitude and phase lag of the ozone response in the tropical stratosphere and lower mesosphere are in satisfactory agreement with available observations. The agreement between the calculated and observed temperature response is generally worse than in the case of ozone.

Remotely monitoring evaporation rate and soil water status using thermal imaging and "three-temperatures model (3T Model)" under field-scale conditions.

PubMed

Qiu, Guo Yu; Zhao, Ming

2010-03-01

Remote monitoring of soil evaporation and soil water status is necessary for water resource and environment management. Ground based remote sensing can be the bridge between satellite remote sensing and ground-based point measurement. The primary object of this study is to provide an algorithm to estimate evaporation and soil water status by remote sensing and to verify its accuracy. Observations were carried out in a flat field with varied soil water content. High-resolution thermal images were taken with a thermal camera; soil evaporation was measured with a weighing lysimeter; weather data were recorded at a nearby meteorological station. Based on the thermal imaging and the three-temperatures model (3T model), we developed an algorithm to estimate soil evaporation and soil water status. The required parameters of the proposed method were soil surface temperature, air temperature, and solar radiation. By using the proposed method, daily variation in soil evaporation was estimated. Meanwhile, soil water status was remotely monitored by using the soil evaporation transfer coefficient. Results showed that the daily variation trends of measured and estimated evaporation agreed with each other, with a regression line of y = 0.92x and coefficient of determination R(2) = 0.69. The simplicity of the proposed method makes the 3T model a potentially valuable tool for remote sensing.

Performance assessment of low pressure nuclear thermal propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerrish, H. P., Jr.; Doughty, G. E.

1993-01-01

A low pressure nuclear thermal propulsion (LPNTP) system, which takes advantage of hydrogen dissociation/recombination, was proposed as a means of increasing engine specific impulse (Isp). The effect of hydrogen dissociation/recombination on LPNTP Isp is examined. A two-dimensional computer model was used to show that the optimum chamber pressure is approximately 100 psia (at a chamber temperature of 3,000 K), with an Isp approximately 15 s higher than at 1,000 psia. At high chamber temperatures and low chamber pressures, the increase in Isp is due to both lower average molecular weights caused by dissociation and added kinetic energy from monatomic hydrogen recombination. Monatomic hydrogen recombination increases the Isp more then hydrogen dissociation. Variations in the mole fraction of monatomic hydrogen are similar to variations in static pressure along the axial nozzle position. Most recombination occurs close to the nozzle throat. Practical variations in nozzle geometry have minimal impact on recombination. Other models which can simulate a wider range of nozzle designs should be used in the future. The uncertainty of the hydrogen kinetic reaction rates at high temperatures (approximately 3,000 K) affects the accuracy of the analysis and should be verified with simple bench tests.

A Part-Time Solar Chromosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkofen, W.

1999-05-01

The dynamical model of the nonmagnetic chromosphere of Carlsson & Stein (1994) has a time-dependent temperature structure from shock dissipation of upward-propagating acoustic waves. For the high-temperature phase of waves due to an observed photospheric velocity spectrum, the model reproduces to great fidelity the intricate velocity and intensity variations of the corresponding H line from an hour-long observing run. But for the low-temperature phase, in which the temperature drops monotonically in the outward direction up to a height of at least 1.8 Mm above tau =1, the model predicts UV spectra for lines and continua that should be observable in absorption everywhere and almost all the time. However, observations with SUMER show only emission lines, everywhere and all the time. The dynamical model fails as a temperature model because it uses less than 5% of the wave energy entering the chromosphere. The extra energy is hidden in the observed power spectrum at acoustic frequencies above 10 mHz; it accounts for a permanent temperature inversion and thus a full-time chromosphere.

An improved understanding of the Alaska coastal current: The application of a bivalve growth-temperature model to reconstruct freshwater-influenced paleoenvironments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hallmann, N.; Schone, B.R.; Irvine, G.V.; Burchell, M.; Cokelet, E.D.; Hilton, M.R.

2011-01-01

Shells of intertidal bivalve mollusks contain sub-seasonally to interannually resolved records of temperature and salinity variations in coastal settings. Such data are essential to understand changing land-sea interactions through time, specifically atmospheric (precipitation rate, glacial meltwater, river discharge) and oceanographic circulation patterns; however, independent temperature and salinity proxies are currently not available. We established a model for reconstructing daily water temperatures with an average standard error of ???1.3 ??C based on variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of Saxidomus gigantea from southwestern Alaska, United States. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. When used in conjunction with stable oxygen isotope data, this approach can also be used to identify changes in past seawater salinity. This study provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). In combination with ??18Oshell values, increment-derived temperatures were used to estimate salinity changes with an average error of 1.4 ?? 1.1 PSU. Our model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. As derived from the model, the time interval of 988-1447 cal yr BP was characterized by ???1-2 ??C colder and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers. During that time, the ACC was likely flowing much more slowly than at present. In contrast, between 599-1014 cal yr BP, the Aleutian low may have been stronger, which resulted in a 3 ??C temperature decrease during summers and 1-2 PSU fresher conditions than today; the ACC was probably flowing more quickly at that time. The shell growth-temperature model can be used to estimate seasonal to interannual salinity and temperature changes in freshwater-influenced environments through time. ?? 2011 SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Magma heating by decompression-driven crystallization beneath andesite volcanoes.

PubMed

Blundy, Jon; Cashman, Kathy; Humphreys, Madeleine

2006-09-07

Explosive volcanic eruptions are driven by exsolution of H2O-rich vapour from silicic magma. Eruption dynamics involve a complex interplay between nucleation and growth of vapour bubbles and crystallization, generating highly nonlinear variation in the physical properties of magma as it ascends beneath a volcano. This makes explosive volcanism difficult to model and, ultimately, to predict. A key unknown is the temperature variation in magma rising through the sub-volcanic system, as it loses gas and crystallizes en route. Thermodynamic modelling of magma that degasses, but does not crystallize, indicates that both cooling and heating are possible. Hitherto it has not been possible to evaluate such alternatives because of the difficulty of tracking temperature variations in moving magma several kilometres below the surface. Here we extend recent work on glassy melt inclusions trapped in plagioclase crystals to develop a method for tracking pressure-temperature-crystallinity paths in magma beneath two active andesite volcanoes. We use dissolved H2O in melt inclusions to constrain the pressure of H2O at the time an inclusion became sealed, incompatible trace element concentrations to calculate the corresponding magma crystallinity and plagioclase-melt geothermometry to determine the temperature. These data are allied to ilmenite-magnetite geothermometry to show that the temperature of ascending magma increases by up to 100 degrees C, owing to the release of latent heat of crystallization. This heating can account for several common textural features of andesitic magmas, which might otherwise be erroneously attributed to pre-eruptive magma mixing.

An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica).

PubMed

Phillips, A M B; Depaola, A; Bowers, J; Ladner, S; Grimes, D J

2007-04-01

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently published a Vibrio parahaemolyticus risk assessment for consumption of raw oysters that predicts V. parahaemolyticus densities at harvest based on water temperature. We retrospectively compared archived remotely sensed measurements (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and turbidity) with previously published data from an environmental study of V. parahaemolyticus in Alabama oysters to assess the utility of the former data for predicting V. parahaemolyticus densities in oysters. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature correlated well with previous in situ measurements (R(2) = 0.86) of bottom water temperature, supporting the notion that remotely sensed sea surface temperature data are a sufficiently accurate substitute for direct measurement. Turbidity and chlorophyll levels were not determined in the previous study, but in comparison with the V. parahaemolyticus data, remotely sensed values for these parameters may explain some of the variation in V. parahaemolyticus levels. More accurate determination of these effects and the temporal and spatial variability of these parameters may further improve the accuracy of prediction models. To illustrate the utility of remotely sensed data as a basis for risk management, predictions based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment model were integrated with remotely sensed sea surface temperature data to display graphically variations in V. parahaemolyticus density in oysters associated with spatial variations in water temperature. We believe images such as these could be posted in near real time, and that the availability of such information in a user-friendly format could be the basis for timely and informed risk management decisions.

Statistical Analysis of CMC Constituent and Processing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fornuff, Jonathan

2004-01-01

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) are the next "big thing" in high-temperature structural materials. In the case of jet engines, it is widely believed that the metallic superalloys currently being utilized for hot structures (combustors, shrouds, turbine vanes and blades) are nearing their potential limits of improvement. In order to allow for increased turbine temperatures to increase engine efficiency, material scientists have begun looking toward advanced CMCs and SiC/SiC composites in particular. Ceramic composites provide greater strength-to-weight ratios at higher temperatures than metallic alloys, but at the same time require greater challenges in micro-structural optimization that in turn increases the cost of the material as well as increases the risk of variability in the material s thermo-structural behavior. to model various potential CMC engine materials and examines the current variability in these properties due to variability in component processing conditions and constituent materials; then, to see how processing and constituent variations effect key strength, stiffness, and thermal properties of the finished components. Basically, this means trying to model variations in the component s behavior by knowing what went into creating it. inter-phase and manufactured by chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) and melt infiltration (MI) were considered. Examinations of: (1) the percent constituents by volume, (2) the inter-phase thickness, (3) variations in the total porosity, and (4) variations in the chemical composition of the Sic fiber are carried out and modeled using various codes used here at NASA-Glenn (PCGina, NASALife, CEMCAN, etc...). The effects of these variations and the ranking of their respective influences on the various thermo-mechanical material properties are studied and compared to available test data. The properties of the materials as well as minor changes to geometry are then made to the computer model and the detrimental effects observed using statistical analysis software. The ultimate purpose of this study is to determine what variations in material processing can lead to the most critical changes in the materials property. The work I have taken part in this summer explores, in general, the key properties needed In this study SiC/SiC composites of varying architectures, utilizing a boron-nitride (BN)

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

PubMed

Richardson, Bryce A; Chaney, Lindsay; Shaw, Nancy L; Still, Shannon M

2017-06-01

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed-effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R 2  = 0.79, marginal R 2  = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree-days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13-day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower-latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher-latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Inversion of gravity and bathymetry in oceanic regions for long-wavelength variations in upper mantle temperature and composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.; Jordan, Thomas H.

1993-01-01

Long-wavelength variations in geoid height, bathymetry, and SS-S travel times are all relatable to lateral variations in the characteristic temperature and bulk composition of the upper mantle. The temperature and composition are in turn relatable to mantle convection and the degree of melt extraction from the upper mantle residuum. Thus the combined inversion of the geoid or gravity field, residual bathymetry, and seismic velocity information offers the promise of resolving fundamental aspects of the pattern of mantle dynamics. The use of differential body wave travel times as a measure of seismic velocity information, in particular, permits resolution of lateral variations at scales not resolvable by conventional global or regional-scale seismic tomography with long-period surface waves. These intermediate scale lengths, well resolved in global gravity field models, are crucial for understanding the details of any chemical or physical layering in the mantle and of the characteristics of so-called 'small-scale' convection beneath oceanic lithosphere. In 1991 a three-year project to the NASA Geophysics Program was proposed to carry out a systematic inversion of long-wavelength geoid anomalies, residual bathymetric anomalies, and differential SS-S travel time delays for the lateral variation in characteristic temperature and bulk composition of the oceanic upper mantle. The project was funded as a three-year award, beginning on 1 Jan. 1992.

Environmental influences on potential recruitment of pink shrimp, Fatlantopenaeus duorarum, from Florida Bay nursery grounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Browder, Joan A.; Restrepo, V.R.; Rice, J.K.; Robblee, M.B.; Zein-Eldin, Z.

1999-01-01

Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas rink shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlement-stage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly density estimates for juvenile rink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

PubMed

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rötter, Reimund P; Kimball, Bruce A; Ottman, Michael J; Wall, Gerard W; White, Jeffrey W; Reynolds, Matthew P; Alderman, Phillip D; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Liu, Leilei; Müller, Christoph; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Ripoche, Dominique; Ruane, Alex C; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stöckle, Claudio; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Zhimin; Wolf, Joost; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2017-07-17

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rotter, Reimund P.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; White, Jeffrey W.; Reynolds, Matthew P.;

Correlation between thermal annealing temperature and Joule-heating based insulator-metal transition in VO2 nanobeams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathi, Servin; Park, Jin-Hyung; Lee, In-yeal; Jin Kim, Min; Min Baik, Jeong; Kim, Gil-Ho

2013-11-01

Rapid thermal annealing of VO2 nanobeams in an ambient argon environment has been carried out at various temperatures after device fabrication. Our analysis revealed that increasing the annealing temperature from 200 °C to 400 °C results in the reduction of both ohmic and nanobeam resistances with an appreciable decrease in joule-heating based transition voltage and transition temperature, while samples annealed at 500 °C exhibited a conducting rutile-phase like characteristics at room temperature. In addition, these variation trends were explored using a physical model and the results were found to be in agreement with the observed results, thus verifying the model.

Temperature Sensitivity as a Microbial Trait Using Parameters from Macromolecular Rate Theory

PubMed Central

Alster, Charlotte J.; Baas, Peter; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Johnson, Nels G.; von Fischer, Joseph C.

2016-01-01

The activity of soil microbial extracellular enzymes is strongly controlled by temperature, yet the degree to which temperature sensitivity varies by microbe and enzyme type is unclear. Such information would allow soil microbial enzymes to be incorporated in a traits-based framework to improve prediction of ecosystem response to global change. If temperature sensitivity varies for specific soil enzymes, then determining the underlying causes of variation in temperature sensitivity of these enzymes will provide fundamental insights for predicting nutrient dynamics belowground. In this study, we characterized how both microbial taxonomic variation as well as substrate type affects temperature sensitivity. We measured β-glucosidase, leucine aminopeptidase, and phosphatase activities at six temperatures: 4, 11, 25, 35, 45, and 60°C, for seven different soil microbial isolates. To calculate temperature sensitivity, we employed two models, Arrhenius, which predicts an exponential increase in reaction rate with temperature, and Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which predicts rate to peak and then decline as temperature increases. We found MMRT provided a more accurate fit and allowed for more nuanced interpretation of temperature sensitivity in all of the enzyme × isolate combinations tested. Our results revealed that both the enzyme type and soil isolate type explain variation in parameters associated with temperature sensitivity. Because we found temperature sensitivity to be an inherent and variable property of an enzyme, we argue that it can be incorporated as a microbial functional trait, but only when using the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity. We show that the Arrhenius metrics of temperature sensitivity are overly sensitive to test conditions, with activation energy changing depending on the temperature range it was calculated within. Thus, we propose the use of the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity for accurate interpretation of temperature sensitivity of soil microbial enzymes. PMID:27909429

A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

1990-01-01

A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

3D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dame, L. T.; Chen, P. C.; Hartle, M. S.; Huang, H. T.

1985-01-01

The objective is to develop analytical tools capable of economically evaluating the cyclic time dependent plasticity which occurs in hot section engine components in areas of strain concentration resulting from the combination of both mechanical and thermal stresses. Three models were developed. A simple model performs time dependent inelastic analysis using the power law creep equation. The second model is the classical model of Professors Walter Haisler and David Allen of Texas A and M University. The third model is the unified model of Bodner, Partom, et al. All models were customized for linear variation of loads and temperatures with all material properties and constitutive models being temperature dependent.

Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate and leaf traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkin, Owen K.

2015-04-01

Leaf respiration plays a vital role in regulating ecosystem functioning and the Earth's climate. Because of this, it is imperative that that Earth-system, climate and ecosystem-level models be able to accurately predict variations in rates of leaf respiration. In the field of photosynthesis research, the F/vC/B model has enabled modellers to accurately predict variations in photosynthesis through time and space. By contrast, we lack an equivalent biochemical model to predict variations in leaf respiration. Consequently, we need to rely on phenomenological approaches to model variations in respiration across the Earth's surface. Such approaches require that we develop a thorough understanding of how rates of respiration vary among species and whether global environmental gradients play a role in determining variations in leaf respiration. Dealing with these issues requires that data sets be assembled on rates of leaf respiration in biomes across the Earth's surface. In this talk, I will use a newly-assembled global database on leaf respiration and associated traits (including photosynthesis) to highlight variation in leaf respiration (and the balance between respiration and photosynthesis) across global gradients in growth temperature and aridity.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

A palaeotemperature curve for the Precambrian oceans based on silicon isotopes in cherts.

PubMed

Robert, François; Chaussidon, Marc

2006-10-26

The terrestrial sediment record indicates that the Earth's climate varied drastically in the Precambrian era (before 550 million years ago), ranging from surface temperatures similar to or higher than today's to global glaciation events. The most continuous record of sea surface temperatures of that time has been derived from variations in oxygen isotope ratios of cherts (siliceous sediments), but the long-term cooling of the oceans inferred from those data has been questioned because the oxygen isotope signature could have been reset through the exchange with hydrothermal fluids after deposition of the sediments. Here we show that the silicon isotopic composition of cherts more than 550 million years old shows systematic variations with age that support the earlier conclusion of long-term ocean cooling and exclude post-depositional exchange as the main source of the isotopic variations. In agreement with other lines of evidence, a model of the silicon cycle in the Precambrian era shows that the observed silicon isotope variations imply seawater temperature changes from about 70 degrees C 3,500 million years ago to about 20 degrees C 800 million years ago.

Using a 4D-Variational Method to Optimize Model Parameters in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.

2017-12-01

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which is attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a four dimentional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation, written as Te=αTe×FTe (SL). The introduced parameter, αTe, represents the strength of the thermocline effect on sea surface temperature (SST; referred as the thermocline effect). A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having initial condition optimized only and having initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized both are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameter and initial condition together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

Temperature, Velocity, and Mean Turbulence Structure in Stongly-Heated Internal Gas Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McEligot, Donald Marinus; Mikielewicz, D. P.; Shehata, A. M.

2002-10-01

The main objective of the present study is to examine whether "simple" turbulence models (i.e., models requiring two partial differential equations or less for turbulent transport) are suitable for use under conditions of forced flow of gas at low Reynolds numbers in tubes with intense heating, leading to large variations of fluid properties and considerable modification of turbulence. Eleven representative models are considered. The ability of such models to handle such flows was assessed by means of computational simulations of the carefully designed experiments of Shehata and McEligot (IJHMT 41 (1998) 4297) at heating rates of q+in˜0.0018, 0.0035 and 0.0045,more » yielding flows ranging from essentially turbulent to laminarized. The resulting comparisons of computational results with experiments showed that the model by Launder and Sharma (Lett. Heat Transfer 1 (1974) 131) performed best in predicting axial wall temperature profiles. Overall, agreement between the measured velocity and temperature distributions and those calculated using the Launder–Sharma model is good, which gives confidence in the values forecast for the turbulence quantities produced. These have been used to assist in arriving at a better understanding of the influences of intense heating, and hence strong variation of fluid properties, on turbulent flow in tubes.« less

Quantitative assessments of mantle flow models against seismic observations: Influence of uncertainties in mineralogical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuberth, Bernhard S. A.

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges in studies of Earth's deep mantle is to bridge the gap between geophysical hypotheses and observations. The biggest dataset available to investigate the nature of mantle flow are recordings of seismic waveforms. On the other hand, numerical models of mantle convection can be simulated on a routine basis nowadays for earth-like parameters, and modern thermodynamic mineralogical models allow us to translate the predicted temperature field to seismic structures. The great benefit of the mineralogical models is that they provide the full non-linear relation between temperature and seismic velocities and thus ensure a consistent conversion in terms of magnitudes. This opens the possibility for quantitative assessments of the theoretical predictions. The often-adopted comparison between geodynamic and seismic models is unsuitable in this respect owing to the effects of damping, limited resolving power and non-uniqueness inherent to tomographic inversions. The most relevant issue, however, is related to wavefield effects that reduce the magnitude of seismic signals (e.g., traveltimes of waves), a phenomenon called wavefront healing. Over the past couple of years, we have developed an approach that takes the next step towards a quantitative assessment of geodynamic models and that enables us to test the underlying geophysical hypotheses directly against seismic observations. It is based solely on forward modelling and warrants a physically correct treatment of the seismic wave equation without theoretical approximations. Fully synthetic 3-D seismic wavefields are computed using a spectral element method for 3-D seismic structures derived from mantle flow models. This way, synthetic seismograms are generated independent of any seismic observations. Furthermore, through the wavefield simulations, it is possible to relate the magnitude of lateral temperature variations in the dynamic flow simulations directly to body-wave traveltime residuals. The synthetic traveltime data can then be compared - on statistical grounds - to the traveltime variations observed on Earth. Here, we now investigate the influence of uncertainties in the various input parameters that enter our modelling. This is especially important for the material properties at high pressure and high temperature entering the mineralogical models. In particular, this concerns uncertainties that arise from relating measurements in the laboratory to Earth properties on a global scale. As one example, we will address the question on the influence of anelasticity on the variance of global synthetic traveltime residuals. Owing to the differences in seismic frequency content between laboratory measurements (MHz to GHz) and the Earth (mHz to Hz), the seismic velocities given in the mineralogical models need to be adjusted; that is, corrected for dispersion due to anelastic effects. This correction will increase the sensitivity of the seismic velocities to temperature variations. The magnitude of this increase depends on absolute temperature, frequency, the frequency dependence of attenuation and the activation enthalpy of the dissipative process. Especially the latter two are poorly known for mantle minerals and our results indicate that variations in activation enthalpy potentially produce the largest differences in temperature sensitivity with respect to the purely elastic case. We will present new wave propagation simulations and corresponding statistical analyses of traveltime measurements for different synthetic seismic models spanning the possible range of anelastic velocity conversions (while being based on the same mantle circulation model).

Theoretical modelling on thermal expansion of Al, Ag and Cu nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manu, Mehul; Dubey, Vikash

2018-05-01

A simple theoretical model is developed for the calculating the coefficient of volume thermal expansion (CTE) and volume thermal expansion (VTE) of Al, Ag and Cu nanomaterials by considering the cubo-octahedral structure with the change of temperature and the cluster size. At the room temperature, the coefficient of volume thermal expansion decreases sharply below 20-25 nm and the decrement of the coefficient of volume thermal expansion becomes slower above 20-25 nm. We also saw a variation in the volume thermal expansion with the variation of temperature and cluster size. At a fixed cluster size, the volume thermal expansion increases with an increase of temperature at below the melting temperature and show a linear relation of volume thermal expansion with the temperature. At a constant temperature, the volume thermal expansion decreases rapidly with an increase in cluster size below 20-25 nm and after 20-25 nm the decrement of volume thermal expansion becomes slower with the increase of the size of the cluster. Thermal expansion is due to the anharmonicity of the atom interaction. As the temperature rises the amplitude of crystal lattice vibration increases, but the equilibrium distance shifts as the atom spend more time at distance greater than the original spacing due as the repulsion at short distance greater than the corresponding attraction at farther distance. In considering the cubo- octahedral structure with the cluster order, the model prediction on the CTE and the VTE are in good agreement with the available experimental data which demonstrate the validity of our work.

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Advanced Meteorological Model Output for Coastal Ocean Modeling in Puget Sound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

2011-06-01

It is a great challenge to specify meteorological forcing in estuarine and coastal circulation modeling using observed data because of the lack of complete datasets. As a result of this limitation, water temperature is often not simulated in estuarine and coastal modeling, with the assumption that density-induced currents are generally dominated by salinity gradients. However, in many situations, temperature gradients could be sufficiently large to influence the baroclinic motion. In this paper, we present an approach to simulate water temperature using outputs from advanced meteorological models. This modeling approach was applied to simulate annual variations of water temperatures of Pugetmore » Sound, a fjordal estuary in the Pacific Northwest of USA. Meteorological parameters from North American Region Re-analysis (NARR) model outputs were evaluated with comparisons to observed data at real-time meteorological stations. Model results demonstrated that NARR outputs can be used to drive coastal ocean models for realistic simulations of long-term water-temperature distributions in Puget Sound. Model results indicated that the net flux from NARR can be further improved with the additional information from real-time observations.« less

Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models

DOE PAGES

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui; ...

2017-03-28

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). Here, we evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO 2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena andmore » F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.« less

Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). Here, we evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO 2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena andmore » F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.« less

Zonal-Mean Temperature Variations Inferred from SABER Measurements on TIMED Compared with UARS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Frank T.; Mayr, Hans; Russell, James; Mlynczak, Marty; Reber, Carl A.

2005-01-01

In the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM, Mayr et al., 2003), small-scale gravity waves propagating in the north/south direction can generate zonal mean (m = 0) meridional wind oscillations with periods between 2 and 4 months. These oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and have been interpreted to be the meridional counterpart of the wave-driven Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the zonal circulation. Wave driven meridional winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. We have analyzed SABER temperature measurements in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to investigate the existence such variations. Because there are also strong tidal signatures (up to approximately 20 K) in the data, our algorithm estimates both mean values and tides together from the data. Based on SABER temperature data, the intra-annual variations with periods between 2 and 4 months can have amplitudes up to 5 K or more, depending on the altitude. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with those inferred Erom UARS data (from different years). The SABER temperature variations also reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, which are qualitatively consistent with wave driven meridional wind oscillations across the equator. Oscillations with similar periods have been seen in the meridional winds based on UARS data (Huang and Reber, 2003).

High Temperature Permeability of Carbon Cloth Phenolic Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, O. Y.; Lawrence, T. W.

2003-01-01

The carbon fiber phenolic resin composite material used for the RSRM nozzle insulator occasionally experiences problems during operation from pocketing or spalling-like erosion and lifting of plies into the char layer. This phenomenon can be better understood if the permeability of the material at elevated temperatures is well defined. This paper describes an experimental approach to determining high temperature permeability of the carbon phenolic material used as the RSRM nozzle liner material. Two different approaches were conducted independently using disk and bar type specimens with the designed permeability apparatus. The principle of the apparatus was to subject a test specimen to a high pressure differential and a heat supply and to monitor both the pressure and temperature variations resulting from gas penetration through the permeable wall between the two chambers. The bar types, especially designed to eliminate sealing difficulties at a high temperature environment, were directly exposed to real time temperature elevation from 22 C to 260 C during the test period. The disk types were pre-heat treated up to 300 C for 8 hours and cooled to room temperature before testing. Nonlinear variation of downstream pressure at a certain temperature range implied moisture release and matrix pyrolysis. Permeability was calculated using a semi-numerical model of quasi-steady state. The test results and the numerical model are discussed in the paper.

Modeling of the static recrystallization for 7055 aluminum alloy by cellular automaton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Lu, Shi-hong; Zhang, Jia-bin; Li, Zheng-fang; Chen, Peng; Gong, Hai; Wu, Yun-xin

2017-09-01

In order to simulate the flow behavior and microstructure evolution during the pass interval period of the multi-pass deformation process, models of static recovery (SR) and static recrystallization (SRX) by the cellular automaton (CA) method for the 7055 aluminum alloy were established. Double-pass hot compression tests were conducted to acquire flow stress and microstructure variation during the pass interval period. With the basis of the material constants obtained from the compression tests, models of the SR, incubation period, nucleation rate and grain growth were fitted by least square method. A model of the grain topology and a statistical computation of the CA results were also introduced. The effects of the pass interval time, temperature, strain, strain rate and initial grain size on the microstructure variation for the SRX of the 7055 aluminum alloy were studied. The results show that a long pass interval time, large strain, high temperature and large strain rate are beneficial for finer grains during the pass interval period. The stable size of the static recrystallized grain is not concerned with the initial grain size, but mainly depends on the strain rate and temperature. The SRX plays a vital role in grain refinement, while the SR has no effect on the variation of microstructure morphology. Using flow stress and microstructure comparisons of the simulated and experimental CA results, the established CA models can accurately predict the flow stress and microstructure evolution during the pass interval period, and provide guidance for the selection of optimized parameters for the multi-pass deformation process.

The seasonal CO2 cycle on Mars - An application of an energy balance climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, P. B.; North, G. R.

1982-01-01

Energy balance climate models of the Budyko-Sellers variety are applied to the carbon-dioxide cycle on Mars. Recent data available from the Viking mission, in particular the seasonal pressure variations measured by Viking landers, are used to constrain the models. No set of parameters was found for which a one-dimensional model parameterized in terms of ground temperature gave an adequate fit to the observed pressure variations. A modified, two-dimensional model including the effects of dust storms and the polar hood reasonably reproduces the pressure curve, however. The implications of these results for Martian climate changes are discussed.

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

A surface temperature and moisture parameterization for use in mesoscale numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tremback, C. J.; Kessler, R.

1985-01-01

A modified multi-level soil moisture and surface temperature model is presented for use as in defining lower boundary conditions in mesoscale weather models. Account is taken of the hydraulic and thermal diffusion properties of the soil, their variations with soil type, and the mixing ratio at the surface. Techniques are defined for integrating the surface input into the multi-level scheme. Sample simulation runs were performed with the modified model and the original model defined by Pielke, et al. (1977, 1981). The models were applied to regional weather forecasting over soils composed of sand and clay loam. The new form of the model avoided iterations necessary in the earlier version of the model and achieved convergence at reasonable profiles for surface temperature and moisture in regions where the earlier version of the model failed.

Post-treatment with Ma-Huang-Tang ameliorates cold-warm-cycles induced rat lung injury.

PubMed

Xiao, Meng-Meng; Pan, Chun-Shui; Liu, Yu-Ying; Ma, Li-Qian; Yan, Li; Fan, Jing-Yu; Wang, Chuan-She; Huang, Rong; Han, Jing-Yan

2017-03-22

Frequent and drastic ambient temperature variation may cause respiratory diseases such as common cold and pneumonia, the mechanism for which is not fully understood, however, due to lack of appropriate animal models. Ma-Huang-Tang (MHT) is widely used in China for treatment of respiratory diseases. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of MHT on temperature alternation induced rat lung injury and explore underlying mechanisms. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to a cold environment for 1 h and then shifted to a warm environment for 30 min. This cold and warm alteration cycled 4 times. Rats were administrated with MHT (1.87 g/kg) by gavage 6 h after cold-warm-cycles. Cold-warm-cycles induced pulmonary microcirculatory disorders, lung edema and injury, decrease in the expression of tight junction proteins, increase in VE-cadherin activation, increase in the expression and activation of Caveolin-1, Src and NF-κB, and NADPH oxidase subunits p47 phox , p40 phox and p67 phox membrane translocation and inflammatory cytokines production. All alterations were significantly ameliorated by post-treatment with MHT. This study showed that rats subjected to cold-warm-cycles may be used as an animal model to investigate ambient temperature variation-induced lung injury, and suggested MHT as a potential strategy to combat lung injury induced by temperature variation.

Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

2010-05-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

Evaluation of indoor air composition time variation in air-tight occupied spaces during night periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markov, Detelin

2012-11-01

This paper presents an easy-to-understand procedure for prediction of indoor air composition time variation in air-tight occupied spaces during the night periods. The mathematical model is based on the assumptions for homogeneity and perfect mixing of the indoor air, the ideal gas model for non-reacting gas mixtures, mass conservation equations for the entire system and for each species, a model for prediction of basal metabolic rate of humans as well as a model for prediction of O2 consumption rate and both CO2 and H2O generation rates by breathing. Time variation of indoor air composition is predicted at constant indoor air temperature for three scenarios based on the analytical solution of the mathematical model. The results achieved reveal both the most probable scenario for indoor air time variation in air-tight occupied spaces as well as the cause for morning tiredness after having a sleep in a modern energy efficient space.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in most grasslands. In contrast, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to wa...

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water temperature is a primary physical factor affecting aquatic organisms. Assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream t...

Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

2016-04-01

Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with water table position.

Effects of residual kinetic energy on yield degradation and ion temperature asymmetries in inertial confinement fusion implosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, K. M.; Betti, R.; Shvarts, D.; Bose, A.; Patel, D.; Yan, R.; Chang, P.-Y.; Mannion, O. M.; Epstein, R.; Delettrez, J. A.; Charissis, M.; Anderson, K. S.; Radha, P. B.; Shvydky, A.; Igumenshchev, I. V.; Gopalaswamy, V.; Christopherson, A. R.; Sanz, J.; Aluie, H.

2018-05-01

The study of Rayleigh-Taylor instability in the deceleration phase of inertial confinement fusion implosions is carried out using the three-dimensional (3-D) radiation-hydrodynamic Eulerian parallel code DEC3D. We show that the yield-over-clean is a strong function of the residual kinetic energy (RKE) for low modes. Our analytical models indicate that the behavior of larger hot-spot volumes observed in low modes and the consequential pressure degradation can be explained in terms of increasing the RKE. These results are derived using a simple adiabatic implosion model of the deceleration phase as well as through an extensive set of 3-D single-mode simulations using the code DEC3D. The effect of the bulk velocity broadening on ion temperature asymmetries is analyzed for different mode numbers ℓ=1 -12. The jet observed in low mode ℓ=1 is shown to cause the largest ion temperature variation in the mode spectrum. The vortices of high modes within the cold bubbles are shown to cause lower ion temperature variations than low modes.

Temporal variation of soil moisture over the Wuding River Basin assessed with an eco-hydrological model, in-situ observations and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Mo, X.; Zhao, W.; Naeimi, V.; Dai, D.; Shu, C.; Mao, L.

2008-12-01

For integrative management of soil and water in the Wuding River basin, Loess plateau, China, where severe soil erosion damages are incurred, the ecohydrological behavior of the region is needed to be explored. In this study we focus on the evolution of soil moisture (SM) in the basin. Since there are only twelve years in-situ SM measurements available at two stations from 1992 to 2004, an eco-hydrological processes-based model (VIP, Vegetation Interface Processes model) is employed to simulate the long-term SM, evapotranspiration (ET), vegetation cover and production variation from 1956 to 2004, for the mechanical analysis of SM change. In-situ SM observations and a remotely sensed SM dataset retrieved by the Vienna University of Technology are used to validate the model. The results show that the model is able to capture seasonal SM variations. The seasonal pattern, multi-year variation, standard deviation and CV (coefficient of the variation) of SM at the daily, monthly and annual scale are well explained by the climatic and ecological factors such as precipitation, temperature, net radiation, evapotranspiration, and Leaf Area Index (LAI, denoted as LAI). The annual and inter-annual variability of SM is the lowest comparing with that for other 11-ecohydrological variables. The trend analysis shows that SM is in decreasing tendency at ∝=0.01 level of significance. Its significance is lower than that of runoff and that of temperature (∝=0.001), whereas higher than that of precipitation (∝=0.1). The products of these long-term SM data aim to help integrative management of soil and water resources.

Parametric Dielectric Model of Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heggy, E.; Palmer, E. M.; Kofman, W. W.; Clifford, S. M.; Righter, K.; Herique, A.

2012-12-01

In 2014, the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission is scheduled to rendezvous with Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (Comet 67P). Rosetta's CONSERT experiment aims to explore the cometary nucleus' geophysical properties using radar tomography. The expected scientific return and inversion algorithms are mainly dependent on our understanding of the dielectric properties of the comet nucleus and how they vary with the spatial distribution of geophysical parameters. Using observations of comets 9P/Tempel 1 and 81P/Wild 2 in combination with dielectric laboratory measurements of temperature, porosity, and dust-to-ice mass ratio dependencies for cometary analog material, we have constructed two hypothetical three-dimensional parametric dielectric models of Comet 67P's nucleus to assess different dielectric scenarios of the inner structure. Our models suggest that dust-to-ice mass ratios and porosity variations generate the most significant measurable dielectric contrast inside the comet nucleus, making it possible to explore the structural and compositional hypotheses of cometary nuclei. Surface dielectric variations, resulting from temperature changes induced by solar illumination of the comet's faces, have also been modeled and suggest that the real part of the dielectric constant varies from 1.9 to 3.0, hence changing the surface radar reflectivity. For CONSERT, this variation could be significant at low incidence angles, when the signal propagates through a length of dust mantle comparable to the wavelength. The overall modeled dielectric permittivity spatial and temporal variations are therefore consistent with the expected deep penetration of CONSERT's transmitted wave through the nucleus. It is also clear that changes in the physical properties of the nucleus induce sufficient variation in the dielectric properties of cometary material to allow their inversion from radar tomography.

Development and Validation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model With Thermosphere and Ionosphere Extension (WACCM-X 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Han-Li; Bardeen, Charles G.; Foster, Benjamin T.; Lauritzen, Peter; Liu, Jing; Lu, Gang; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maute, Astrid; McInerney, Joseph M.; Pedatella, Nicholas M.; Qian, Liying; Richmond, Arthur D.; Roble, Raymond G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Vitt, Francis M.; Wang, Wenbin

2018-02-01

Key developments have been made to the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X). Among them, the most important are the self-consistent solution of global electrodynamics, and transport of O+ in the F-region. Other ionosphere developments include time-dependent solution of electron/ion temperatures, metastable O+ chemistry, and high-cadence solar EUV capability. Additional developments of the thermospheric components are improvements to the momentum and energy equation solvers to account for variable mean molecular mass and specific heat, a new divergence damping scheme, and cooling by O(3P) fine structure. Simulations using this new version of WACCM-X (2.0) have been carried out for solar maximum and minimum conditions. Thermospheric composition, density, and temperatures are in general agreement with measurements and empirical models, including the equatorial mass density anomaly and the midnight density maximum. The amplitudes and seasonal variations of atmospheric tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are in good agreement with observations. Although global mean thermospheric densities are comparable with observations of the annual variation, they lack a clear semiannual variation. In the ionosphere, the low-latitude E × B drifts agree well with observations in their magnitudes, local time dependence, seasonal, and solar activity variations. The prereversal enhancement in the equatorial region, which is associated with ionospheric irregularities, displays patterns of longitudinal and seasonal variation that are similar to observations. Ionospheric density from the model simulations reproduces the equatorial ionosphere anomaly structures and is in general agreement with observations. The model simulations also capture important ionospheric features during storms.

Mesospheric temperatures estimated from the meteor radar observations at Mohe, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Libo; Liu, Huixin; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Sun, Yang-Yi; Ning, Baiqi; Hu, Lianhuan; Wan, Weixing; Li, Na; Xiong, Jiangang

2017-02-01

In this work, we report the estimation of mesospheric temperatures at 90 km height from the observations of the VHF all-sky meteor radar operated at Mohe (53.5°N, 122.3°E), China, since August 2011. The kinetic temperature profiles retrieved from the observations of Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) on board the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics satellite are processed to provide the temperature (TSABER) and temperature gradient (dT/dh) at 90 km height. Based on the SABER temperature profile data an empirical dT/dh model is developed for the Mohe latitude. First, we derive the temperatures from the meteor decay times (Tmeteor) and the Mohe dT/dh model gives prior information of temperature gradients. Second, the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the meteor height profiles is calculated and further used to deduce the temperatures (TFWHM) based on the strong linear relationship between FWHM and TSABER. The temperatures at 90 km deduced from the decay times (Tmeteor) and from the meteor height distributions (TFWHM) at Mohe are validated/calibrated with TSABER. The temperatures present a considerable annual variation, being maximum in winter and minimum in summer. Harmonic analyses reveal that the temperatures have an annual variation consistent with TSABER. Our work suggests that FWHM has a good performance in routine estimation of the temperatures. It should be pointed out that the slope of FWHM as a function of TSABER is 10.1 at Mohe, which is different from that of 15.71 at King Sejong (62.2°S, 58.8°E) station.

Origins of topography in the western U.S.: Mapping crustal and upper mantle density variations using a uniform seismic velocity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levandowski, Will; Jones, Craig H.; Shen, Weisen; Ritzwoller, Michael H.; Schulte-Pelkum, Vera

2014-03-01

To investigate the physical basis for support of topography in the western U.S., we construct a subcontinent scale, 3-D density model using 1000 estimated crustal thicknesses and S velocity profiles to 150 km depth at each of 947 seismic stations. Crustal temperature and composition are considered, but we assume that mantle velocity variations are thermal in origin. From these densities, we calculate crustal and mantle topographic contributions. Typical 2σ uncertainty of topography is 500 m, and elevations in 84% of the region are reproduced within error. Remaining deviations from observed elevations are attributed to melt, variations in crustal quartz content, and dynamic topography; compositional variations in the mantle, while plausible, are not necessary to reproduce topography. Support for western U.S. topography is heterogeneous, with each province having a unique combination of mechanisms. Topography due to mantle buoyancy is nearly constant (within 250 m) across the Cordillera; relief there (>2 km) results from variations in crustal chemistry and thickness. Cold mantle provides 1.5 km of ballast to the thick crust of the Great Plains and Wyoming craton. Crustal temperature variations and dynamic pressures have smaller magnitude and/or more localized impacts. Positive gravitational potential energy (GPE) anomalies ( 2 × 1012N/m) calculated from our model promote extension in the northern Basin and Range and near the Sierra Nevada. Negative GPE anomalies (-3 × 1012N/m) along the western North American margin and Yakima fold and thrust belt add compressive stresses. Stresses derived from lithospheric density variations may strongly modulate tectonic stresses in the western U.S. continental interior.

Landform features and seasonal precipitation predict shallow groundwater influence on temperature in headwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Zachary C.; Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2017-01-01

Headwater stream responses to climate change will depend in part on groundwater‐surface water exchanges. We used linear modeling techniques to partition likely effects of shallow groundwater seepage and air temperature on stream temperatures for 79 sites in nine focal watersheds using hourly air and water temperature measurements collected during summer months from 2012 to 2015 in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Shallow groundwater effects exhibited more variation within watersheds than between them, indicating the importance of reach‐scale assessments and the limited capacity to extrapolate upstream groundwater influences from downstream measurements. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models revealed intricate interactions among geomorphological landform features (stream slope, elevation, network length, contributing area, and channel confinement) and seasonal precipitation patterns (winter, spring, and summer months) that together were robust predictors of spatial and temporal variation in groundwater influence on stream temperatures. The final BRT model performed well for training data and cross‐validated samples (correlation = 0.984 and 0.760, respectively). Geomorphological and precipitation predictors of groundwater influence varied in their importance between watersheds, suggesting differences in spatial and temporal controls of recharge dynamics and the depth of the groundwater source. We demonstrate an application of the final BRT model to predict groundwater effects from landform and precipitation covariates at 1075 new sites distributed at 100 m increments within focal watersheds. Our study provides a framework to estimate effects of groundwater seepage on stream temperature in unsampled locations. We discuss applications for climate change research to account for groundwater‐surface water interactions when projecting future thermal thresholds for stream biota.

Landform features and seasonal precipitation predict shallow groundwater influence on temperature in headwater streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Zachary C.; Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2017-07-01

Headwater stream responses to climate change will depend in part on groundwater-surface water exchanges. We used linear modeling techniques to partition likely effects of shallow groundwater seepage and air temperature on stream temperatures for 79 sites in nine focal watersheds using hourly air and water temperature measurements collected during summer months from 2012 to 2015 in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Shallow groundwater effects exhibited more variation within watersheds than between them, indicating the importance of reach-scale assessments and the limited capacity to extrapolate upstream groundwater influences from downstream measurements. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models revealed intricate interactions among geomorphological landform features (stream slope, elevation, network length, contributing area, and channel confinement) and seasonal precipitation patterns (winter, spring, and summer months) that together were robust predictors of spatial and temporal variation in groundwater influence on stream temperatures. The final BRT model performed well for training data and cross-validated samples (correlation = 0.984 and 0.760, respectively). Geomorphological and precipitation predictors of groundwater influence varied in their importance between watersheds, suggesting differences in spatial and temporal controls of recharge dynamics and the depth of the groundwater source. We demonstrate an application of the final BRT model to predict groundwater effects from landform and precipitation covariates at 1075 new sites distributed at 100 m increments within focal watersheds. Our study provides a framework to estimate effects of groundwater seepage on stream temperature in unsampled locations. We discuss applications for climate change research to account for groundwater-surface water interactions when projecting future thermal thresholds for stream biota.

Improving Pyroelectric Energy Harvesting Using a Sandblast Etching Technique

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Chun-Ching; Siao, An-Shen

2013-01-01

Large amounts of low-grade heat are emitted by various industries and exhausted into the environment. This heat energy can be used as a free source for pyroelectric power generation. A three-dimensional pattern helps to improve the temperature variation rates in pyroelectric elements by means of lateral temperature gradients induced on the sidewalls of the responsive elements. A novel method using sandblast etching is successfully applied in fabricating the complex pattern of a vortex-like electrode. Both experiment and simulation show that the proposed design of the vortex-like electrode improved the electrical output of the pyroelectric cells and enhanced the efficiency of pyroelectric harvesting converters. A three-dimensional finite element model is generated by commercial software for solving the transient temperature fields and exploring the temperature variation rate in the PZT pyroelectric cells with various designs. The vortex-like type has a larger temperature variation rate than the fully covered type, by about 53.9%.The measured electrical output of the vortex-like electrode exhibits an obvious increase in the generated charge and the measured current, as compared to the fully covered electrode, by of about 47.1% and 53.1%, respectively. PMID:24025557

A model of the spatial and temporal variation of the Uranus thermal structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bezard, B.; Gautier, D.

1986-01-01

Seasonal variability of the temperature structure of Uranus is modeled for all latitudes in the .0004 to 2 bar pressure range in anticipation of the Voyager encounter in January 1986. Atmospheric heating in the model results on the one hand from an internal heat source and, on the other hand, from absorption of solar energy by methane and by non-conservative aerosols located between the 0.5 and 2 bar levels. Various cases for the behavior of the internal heat flux are investigated, such as constant with latitude or constrained to yield a time-averaged thermal emission independent of latitude. Meridional transport of heat in the stably stratified atmosphere is not taken into account. The results indicate that the Voyager encounter time, very small north-south temperature asymmetry should be expected. Moreover, the northern hemisphere, although not illuminated, should emit as much energy (within one percent) as the southern hemisphere at this date. At a given latitude, extreme temperatures are reached at the equinoxes. At the poles, seasonal amplitudes of about 10 K in the upper stratosphere and 6 K at the 0.6 bar level are predicted, and the variation with time of the emission to space is found to be at most 20 percent. The atmosphere of Uranus appears to be characterized by very long radiative response times (mainly due to its cold temperature) which inhibit the large seasonal variations that one could otherwise expect in view of the high obliquity of the planet and its long orbital period.

FDTD analysis of human body-core temperature elevation due to RF far-field energy prescribed in the ICNIRP guidelines.

PubMed

Hirata, Akimasa; Asano, Takayuki; Fujiwara, Osamu

2007-08-21

This study investigated the relationship between the specific absorption rate and temperature elevation in an anatomically-based model named NORMAN for exposure to radio-frequency far fields in the ICNIRP guidelines (1998 Health Phys. 74 494-522). The finite-difference time-domain method is used for analyzing the electromagnetic absorption and temperature elevation in NORMAN. In order to consider the variability of human thermoregulation, parameters for sweating are derived and incorporated into a conventional sweating formula. First, we investigated the effect of blood temperature variation modeling on body-core temperature. The computational results show that the modeling of blood temperature variation was the dominant factor influencing the body-core temperature. This is because the temperature in the inner tissues is elevated via the circulation of blood whose temperature was elevated due to EM absorption. Even at different frequencies, the body-core temperature elevation at an identical whole-body average specific absorption rate (SAR) was almost the same, suggesting the effectiveness of the whole-body average SAR as a measure in the ICNIRP guidelines. Next, we discussed the effect of sweating on the temperature elevation and thermal time constant of blood. The variability of temperature elevation caused by the sweating rate was found to be 30%. The blood temperature elevation at the basic restriction in the ICNIRP guidelines of 0.4 W kg(-1) is 0.25 degrees C even for a low sweating rate. The thermal time constant of blood temperature elevation was 23 min and 52 min for a man with a lower and a higher sweating rate, respectively, which is longer than the average time of the SAR in the ICNIRP guidelines. Thus, the whole-body average SAR required for blood temperature elevation of 1 degrees C was 4.5 W kg(-1) in the model of a human with the lower sweating coefficients for 60 min exposure. From a comparison of this value with the basic restriction in the ICNIRP guidelines of 0.4 W kg(-1), the safety factor was 11.

TOPLA: A New Empirical Representation of the F-Region Topside and Plasmasphere for the International Reference Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilitza, D.; Reinisch, B.; Gallagher, D.; Huang, X.; Truhlik, V.; Nsumei, P.

2007-01-01

The goal of this LWS tools effort is the development of a new data-based F-region TOpside and PLAsmasphere (TOPLA) model for the electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) for inclusion in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model using newly available satellite data and models for these regions. The IRI model is the de facto international standard for specification of ionospheric parameters and is currently being considered as an ISO Technical Specification for the ionosphere. Our effort is directed towards improving the topside part of the model and extending it into the plasmasphere. Specifically we are planning to overcome the following shortcomings of the current IRI topside model: (I) overestimation of densities above 700 km by a factor of 2 and more, (3) unrealistically steep density profiles at high latitudes during very high solar activities, (4) no solar cycle variations and no semi-annual variations for the electron temperature, (5) discontinuities or unphysical gradients when merging with plasmaspheric models. We will report on first accomplishments and on the current status of the project.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Dynamic model of temperature impact on cell viability and major product formation during fed-batch and continuous ethanolic fermentation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Amillastre, Emilie; Aceves-Lara, César-Arturo; Uribelarrea, Jean-Louis; Alfenore, Sandrine; Guillouet, Stéphane E

2012-08-01

The impact of the temperature on an industrial yeast strain was investigated in very high ethanol performance fermentation fed-batch process within the range of 30-47 °C. As previously observed with a lab strain, decoupling between growth and glycerol formation occurred at temperature of 36 °C and higher. A dynamic model was proposed to describe the impact of the temperature on the total and viable biomass, ethanol and glycerol production. The model validation was implemented with experimental data sets from independent cultures under different temperatures, temperature variation profiles and cultivation modes. The proposed model fitted accurately the dynamic evolutions for products and biomass concentrations over a wide range of temperature profiles. R2 values were above 0.96 for ethanol and glycerol in most experiments. The best results were obtained at 37 °C in fed-batch and chemostat cultures. This dynamic model could be further used for optimizing and monitoring the ethanol fermentation at larger scale. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients.

PubMed

Michaletz, Sean T; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Enquist, Brian J

2014-08-07

Variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) with climate is thought to originate from a direct influence of temperature and precipitation on plant metabolism. However, variation in NPP may also result from an indirect influence of climate by means of plant age, stand biomass, growing season length and local adaptation. To identify the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects, we extend metabolic scaling theory to link hypothesized climate influences with NPP, and assess hypothesized relationships using a global compilation of ecosystem woody plant biomass and production data. Notably, age and biomass explained most of the variation in production whereas temperature and precipitation explained almost none, suggesting that climate indirectly (not directly) influences production. Furthermore, our theory shows that variation in NPP is characterized by a common scaling relationship, suggesting that global change models can incorporate the mechanisms governing this relationship to improve predictions of future ecosystem function.

Forensic Entomology: Evaluating Uncertainty Associated With Postmortem Interval (PMI) Estimates With Ecological Models.

PubMed

Faris, A M; Wang, H-H; Tarone, A M; Grant, W E

2016-05-31

Estimates of insect age can be informative in death investigations and, when certain assumptions are met, can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI). Currently, the accuracy and precision of PMI estimates is unknown, as error can arise from sources of variation such as measurement error, environmental variation, or genetic variation. Ecological models are an abstract, mathematical representation of an ecological system that can make predictions about the dynamics of the real system. To quantify the variation associated with the pre-appearance interval (PAI), we developed an ecological model that simulates the colonization of vertebrate remains by Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), a primary colonizer in the southern United States. The model is based on a development data set derived from a local population and represents the uncertainty in local temperature variability to address PMI estimates at local sites. After a PMI estimate is calculated for each individual, the model calculates the maximum, minimum, and mean PMI, as well as the range and standard deviation for stadia collected. The model framework presented here is one manner by which errors in PMI estimates can be addressed in court when no empirical data are available for the parameter of interest. We show that PAI is a potential important source of error and that an ecological model is one way to evaluate its impact. Such models can be re-parameterized with any development data set, PAI function, temperature regime, assumption of interest, etc., to estimate PMI and quantify uncertainty that arises from specific prediction systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Research on Spectroscopy, Opacity, and Atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurucz, Robert L.

1996-01-01

I discuss errors in theory and in interpreting observations that are produced by the failure to consider resolution in space, time, and energy. I discuss convection in stellar model atmospheres and in stars. Large errors in abundances are possible such as the factor of ten error in the Li abundance for extreme Population II stars. Finally I discuss the variation of microturbulent velocity with depth, effective temperature, gravity and abundance. These variations must be dealt with in computing models and grids and in any type of photometric calibration.

Variational principle model for the nuclear caloric curve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das Gupta, S.

2005-12-15

Following the lead of a recent work, I perform a variational principle model calculation for the nuclear caloric curve. A Skyrme-type interaction with and without momentum dependence is used. The calculation is done for a large nucleus, i.e., in the nuclear matter limit. Thus I address the issue of volume fragmentation only. Nonetheless, the results are similar to the previous, largely phenomenological calculation for a finite nucleus. I find that the onset of fragmentation can be sudden as a function of temperature or excitation energy.

Stratospheric and solar cycle effects on long-term variability of mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.

2009-11-01

Model results of mesospheric ice layers and background conditions at 69°N from 1961 to 2008 are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. At polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) altitudes (83 km) temperatures decrease until the mid 1990s by -0.08 K/yr resulting in trends of PMC brightness, occurrence rates, and, to a lesser extent, in PMC altitudes (-0.0166 km/yr). Ice layer trends are consistent with observations by ground-based and satellite instruments. Water vapor increases at PMC heights and decreases above due to increased freeze-drying caused by the temperature trend. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. A solar cycle modulation of H2O is observed in the model consistent with satellite observations. The effect on ice layers is reduced because of redistribution of H2O by freeze-drying. The accidental coincidence of low temperatures and solar cycle minimum in the mid 1990s leads to an overestimation of solar effects on ice layers. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (˜0.01-0.02 K/yr). Strong correlations between PMC parameters and background conditions deduced from the model confirm the standard scenario of PMC formation. The PMC sensitivity on temperatures, water vapor, and Ly-α is investigated. PMC heights show little variation with background parameters whereas brightness and occurrence rates show large variations. None of the background parameters can be ignored regarding its influence on ice layers.

Stratospheric and solar cycle effects on long-term variability of mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.

2009-01-01

Model results of mesospheric ice layers and background conditions at 69°N from 1961 to 2008 are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. At polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) altitudes (83 km) temperatures decrease until the mid 1990s by -0.08 K/yr resulting in trends of PMC brightness, occurrence rates, and, to a lesser extent, in PMC altitudes (-0.0166 km/yr). Ice layer trends are consistent with observations by ground-based and satellite instruments. Water vapor increases at PMC heights and decreases above due to increased freeze-drying caused by the temperature trend. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. A solar cycle modulation of H2O is observed in the model consistent with satellite observations. The effect on ice layers is reduced because of redistribution of H2O by freeze-drying. The accidental coincidence of low temperatures and solar cycle minimum in the mid 1990s leads to an overestimation of solar effects on ice layers. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (˜0.01-0.02 K/yr). Strong correlations between PMC parameters and background conditions deduced from the model confirm the standard scenario of PMC formation. The PMC sensitivity on temperatures, water vapor, and Ly-α is investigated. PMC heights show little variation with background parameters whereas brightness and occurrence rates show large variations. None of the background parameters can be ignored regarding its influence on ice layers.

Quantifying the impact of El Niño-driven variations in temperature and precipitation on regional atmospheric CO2 growth rate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Butterfield, Z.; Doney, S. C.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Miller, J.; Morton, D. C.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the climatic drivers of variations in atmospheric CO2 observations over a range of timescales is necessary to develop a mechanistic understanding of the global carbon cycle that will enable prediction of future changes. Here, we combine NOAA cooperative global air sampling network CO2 observations, remote sensing data, and a flux perturbation model to quantify the feedbacks between interannual variability in physical climate and the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. In particular, we focus on the differences between the 1997/1998 El Niño and the 2015/2016 El Niño during which atmospheric CO2 increased at an unprecedented rate. The flux perturbation model was trained on data from 1997 to 2012, and then used to predict regional atmospheric CO2 growth rate anomalies for the period from 2013 through 2016. Given gridded temperature anomalies from the Hadley Center's Climate Research Unit (CRU), precipitation anomalies from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4s), the model was able to the reproduce regional growth rate variations observed at marine boundary layer stations in the NOAA network, including the rapid CO2 growth rate in 2015/2016. The flux perturbation model output suggests that the carbon cycle responses differed for1997 and 2015 El Niño periods, with tropical precipitation anomalies causing a much larger net flux of CO2 to the atmosphere during the latter period, while direct fire emissions dominated the former. The flux perturbation model also suggests that high temperature stress in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics contributed almost one-third of the CO2 growth rate enhancement during the 2015 El Niño. We use satellite-based metrics for atmospheric column CO2, vegetation, and moisture to corroborate the regional El Niño impacts from the flux perturbation model. Finally, we discuss how these observational results and independent data on ocean air-sea flux anomalies, couched in an empirical model, may be useful for evaluating the fidelity of mechanistic land models.

Density of the continental roots: Compositional and thermal contributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaban, M.K.; Schwintzer, P.; Artemieva, I.M.; Mooney, W.D.

2003-01-01

The origin and evolution of cratonic roots has been debated for many years. Precambrian cratons are underlain by cold lithospheric roots that are chemically depleted. Thermal and petrologic data indicate that Archean roots are colder and more chemically depleted than Proterozoic roots. This observation has led to the hypothesis that the degree of depletion in a lithospheric root depends mostly on its age. Here we test this hypothesis using gravity, thermal, petrologic, and seismic data to quantify differences in the density of cratonic roots globally. In the first step in our analysis we use a global crustal model to remove the crustal contribution to the observed gravity. The result is the mantle gravity anomaly field, which varies over cratonic areas from -100 to +100 mGal. Positive mantle gravity anomalies are observed for cratons in the northern hemisphere: the Baltic shield, East European Platform, and the Siberian Platform. Negative anomalies are observed over cratons in the southern hemisphere: Western Australia, South America, the Indian shield, and Southern Africa. This indicates that there are significant differences in the density of cratonic roots, even for those of similar age. Root density depends on temperature and chemical depletion. In order to separate these effects we apply a lithospheric temperature correction using thermal estimates from a combination of geothermal modeling and global seismic tomography models. Gravity anomalies induced by temperature variations in the uppermost mantle range from -200 to +300 mGal, with the strongest negative anomalies associated with mid-ocean ridges and the strongest positive anomalies associated with cratons. After correcting for thermal effects, we obtain a map of density variations due to lithospheric compositional variations. These maps indicate that the average density decrease due to the chemical depletion within cratonic roots varies from 1.1% to 1.5%, assuming the chemical boundary layer has the same thickness as the thermal boundary layer. The maximal values of the density drop are in the range 1.7-2.5%, and correspond to the Archean portion of each craton. Temperatures within cratonic roots vary strongly, and our analysis indicates that density variations in the roots due to temperature are larger than the variations due to chemical differences. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.

PubMed

Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo

2011-12-01

In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.

Characterization of the temperature evolution during high-cycle fatigue of the ULTIMET superalloy: Experiment and theoretical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Wang, H.; Liaw, P. K.; Brooks, C. R.; Klarstrom, D. L.

2001-09-01

High-speed, high-resolution infrared thermography, as a noncontact, full-field, and nondestructive technique, was used to study the temperature variations of a cobalt-based ULTIMET alloy subjected to high-cycle fatigue. During each fatigue cycle, the temperature oscillations, which were due to the thermal-elastic-plastic effects, were observed and related to stress-strain analyses. A constitutive model was developed for predicting the thermal and mechanical responses of the ULTIMET alloy subjected to cyclic deformation. The model was constructed in light of internal-state variables, which were developed to characterize the inelastic strain of the material during cyclic loading. The predicted stress-strain and temperature responses were found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. In addition, the change of temperature during fatigue was employed to reveal the accumulation of fatigue damage, and the measured temperature was utilized as an index for fatigue-life prediction.

The temperature-ballast hypothesis explains carbon export efficiency observations in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britten, Gregory L.; Wakamatsu, Lael; Primeau, François W.

2017-02-01

Carbon export from the Southern Ocean exerts a strong control on the ocean carbon sink, yet recent observations from the region demonstrate poorly understood relationships in which carbon export efficiency is weakly related to temperature. These observations conflict with traditional theory where export efficiency increases in colder waters. A recently proposed "temperature-ballast hypothesis" suggests an explanatory mechanism where the effect of temperature-dependent respiration is masked by variation in particle-ballast as upwelling waters move northward from Antarctica. We use observations and statistical models to test this mechanism and find positive support for the hypothesized temperature-ballast interactions. Best fitting models indicate a significant relation between export efficiency and silica-ballast while simultaneously revealing the expected inverse effect of temperature once ballast is accounted for. These findings reconcile model predictions, metabolic theory, and carbon export observations in the Southern Ocean and have consequences for how the ocean carbon sink responds to climate change.

Countergradient variation in locomotor performance of two sympatric Polynesian skinks (Emoia impar, Emoia cyanura).

PubMed

McElroy, Matthew T

2014-01-01

Physiological function in ectotherms is tightly linked to body temperature. As a result, the thermal sensitivity of physiological function may evolve to optimize fitness across different thermal environments. One hypothesis for the evolution of thermal sensitivity, coadaptation, predicts that optimal temperatures for performance should evolve to match the temperatures that an organism experiences in nature. Another hypothesis, countergradient variation, posits that genetic variation can compensate for decreased performance in cool environments, leading to physiological phenotypes that do not track environmental temperatures. On Mo'orea, French Polynesia, thermal ecology and physiology were studied in two morphologically similar skinks that differ in habitat use. Previous studies show that Emoia impar tends to inhabit closed-canopy and interior habitats that are cooler compared to those inhabited by Emoia cyanura, but these differences had not been quantified on Mo'orea. The goal of this study was to determine whether this pattern of habitat partitioning exists on Mo'orea and relates to interspecific differences in thermal physiology and to evaluate whether the evolution of thermal sensitivity supports coadaptation or countergradient variation. I found that E. impar inhabits closed-canopy habitats with cooler substrates and with higher altitudes compared to habitats of E. cyanura. Although the two species do not differ significantly in critical thermal minimum, E. impar has a significantly lower preferred body temperature and critical thermal maximum than does E. cyanura. Despite a preference for cooler habitats and temperatures, E. impar has a warmer optimal temperature for sprint speed and sprints faster than E. cyanura at all temperatures, which supports the countergradient model of thermal adaptation. These results are robust to three different curve-fitting functions and support the view that generalist/specialist trade-offs do not universally constrain the evolution of performance curves.

Seasonal variation of air temperature at the Mendel Station, James Ross Island in the period of 2006-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laska, Kamil; Prošek, Pavel; Budík, Ladislav

2010-05-01

Key words: air temperature, seasonal variation, James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula Recently, significant role of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation variation on positive trend of near surface air temperature along the Antarctic Peninsula has been reported by many authors. However, small number of the permanent meteorological stations located on the Peninsula coast embarrasses a detail analysis. It comprises analysis of spatiotemporal variability of climatic conditions and validation of regional atmospheric climate models. However, geographical location of the Czech Johann Gregor Mendel Station (hereafter Mendel Station) newly established on the northern ice-free part of the James Ross Island provides an opportunity to fill the gap. There are recorded important meteorological characteristics which allow to evaluate specific climatic regime of the region and their impact on the ice-shelf disintegration and glacier retreat. Mendel Station (63°48'S, 57°53'W) is located on marine terrace at the altitude of 7 m. In 2006, a monitoring network of several automatic weather stations was installed at different altitudes ranging from the seashore level up to mesas and tops of glaciers (514 m a.s.l.). In this contribution, a seasonal variation of near surface air temperature at the Mendel Station in the period of 2006-2009 is presented. Annual mean air temperature was -7.2 °C. Seasonal mean temperature ranged from +1.4 °C (December-February) to -17.7 °C (June-August). Frequently, the highest temperature occurred in the second half of January. It reached maximum of +8.1 °C. Sudden changes of atmospheric circulation pattern during winter caused a large interdiurnal variability of air temperature with the amplitude of 30 °C.

Final Engineering Report - Phase I HYCOS (Hydraulic Check Out System)

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-30

34 Shock Strut Pressure/Level Concept 37 35 Pressure vs Temperature Variation 40 36 Temperature Compensated Pressure Switch (Concept) 41 37...Temperature Compensated Pressure Switch (NEO-DYNE) ... 42 38 Deslccant Saturation Monitor 43 39 HIAC Model PC-120 Contamination Monitor 44 40...variables. If a thermal compensated pressure switch is utilized which has the same operating slope as the ideal gaa, then a low charge can be

Temperature distribution by the effect of groundwater flow in an aquifer thermal energy storage system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, B.

2005-12-01

Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) can be a cost-effective and renewable energy source, depending on site-specific thermohydraulic conditions. To design an effective ATES system, the understanding of thermohydraulic processes is necessary. The heat transfer phenomena of an aquifer heat storage system are simulated with the scenario of heat pump operation of pumping and waste water reinjection in a two layered confined aquifer model having the effect of groundwater movement. Temperature distribution of the aquifer model is generated, and hydraulic heads and temperature variations are monitored at both wells during simulation days. The average groundwater velocities are determined with two assumed hydraulic gradients set by boundary conditions, and the effect of groundwater flow are shown at the generated thermal distributions at three different depth slices. The generated temperature contour lines at the hydraulic gradient of 0.001 are shaped circular, and the center is moved less than 5 m to the east in 365 days. However at the hydraulic gradient of 0.01, the contour centers of the east well at each depth slice are moved near the east boundary and the movement of temperature distribution is increased at the lower aquifer. By the analysis of thermal interference data between two wells the efficiency of a heat pump operation model is validated, and the variation of heads is monitored at injection, pumping and stabilized state. The thermal efficiency of the ATES system model is represented as highly depended on groundwater flow velocity and direction. Therefore the hydrogeologic condition for the system site should be carefully surveyed.

Environmental controls of daytime leaf carbon exchange: Implications for estimates of ecosystem fluxes in a deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heskel, M.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Leaf-level photosynthesis and respiration are sensitive to short- and long-term changed in temperature, and how these processes respond to phenological and seasonal transitions and daily temperature variation dictate how carbon is first assimilated and released in terrestrial ecosystems. We examined the short-term temperature response of daytime leaf carbon exchange at Harvard Forest across growing season, with the specific objective to quantify the light inhibition of dark respiration and photorespiration in leaves and use this to better inform daytime carbon assimilation and efflux estimates at the canopy scale. Dark and light respiration increased with measurement temperature and varied seasonally in a proportional manner, with the level of inhibition remaining relatively constant through the growing season. Higher rates of mitochondrial respiration and photorespiration at warmer temperatures drove a lower carbon use efficiency. Using temperature, light, and canopy leaf area index values to drive models, we estimate partitioned ecosystem fluxes and re-calculate gross primary production under multiple scenarios that include and exclude the impact of light inhibition, thermal acclimation, and seasonal variation in physiology. Quantifying the contribution of these `small fluxes' to ecosystem carbon exchange in forests provides a nuanced approach for integrating physiology into regional model estimates derived from eddy covariance and remote-sensing methods.

Local Versus Remote Contributions of Soil Moisture to Near-Surface Temperature Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R.; Schubert, S.; Wang, H.; Chang, Y.

2018-01-01

Soil moisture variations have a straightforward impact on overlying air temperatures, wetter soils can induce higher evaporative cooling of the soil and thus, locally, cooler temperatures overall. Not known, however, is the degree to which soil moisture variations can affect remote air temperatures through their impact on the atmospheric circulation. In this talk we describe a two-pronged analysis that addresses this question. In the first segment, an extensive ensemble of NASA/GSFC GEOS-5 atmospheric model simulations is analyzed statistically to isolate and quantify the contributions of various soil moisture states, both local and remote, to the variability of air temperature at a given local site. In the second segment, the relevance of the derived statistical relationships is evaluated by applying them to observations-based data. Results from the second segment suggest that the GEOS-5-based relationships do, at least to first order, hold in nature and thus may provide some skill to forecasts of air temperature at subseasonal time scales, at least in certain regions.

A model for predicting Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth as a function of temperature

PubMed Central

Llorente, Isidre; Montesinos, Emilio; Moragrega, Concepció

2017-01-01

A two-step modeling approach was used for predicting the effect of temperature on the growth of Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni, causal agent of bacterial spot disease of stone fruit. The in vitro growth of seven strains was monitored at temperatures from 5 to 35°C with a Bioscreen C system, and a calibrating equation was generated for converting optical densities to viable counts. In primary modeling, Baranyi, Buchanan, and modified Gompertz equations were fitted to viable count growth curves over the entire temperature range. The modified Gompertz model showed the best fit to the data, and it was selected to estimate the bacterial growth parameters at each temperature. Secondary modeling of maximum specific growth rate as a function of temperature was performed by using the Ratkowsky model and its variations. The modified Ratkowsky model showed the best goodness of fit to maximum specific growth rate estimates, and it was validated successfully for the seven strains at four additional temperatures. The model generated in this work will be used for predicting temperature-based Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth rate and derived potential daily doublings, and included as the inoculum potential component of a bacterial spot of stone fruit disease forecaster. PMID:28493954

Neonatal infrared thermography imaging: Analysis of heat flux during different clinical scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Abbas K.; Heimann, Konrad; Blazek, Vladimir; Orlikowsky, Thorsten; Leonhardt, Steffen

2012-11-01

IntroductionAn accurate skin temperature measurement of Neonatal Infrared Thermography (NIRT) imaging requires an appropriate calibration process for compensation of external effects (e.g. variation of environmental temperature, variable air velocity or humidity). Although modern infrared cameras can perform such calibration, an additional compensation is required for highly accurate thermography. This compensation which corrects any temperature drift should occur during the NIRT imaging process. We introduce a compensation technique which is based on modeling the physical interactions within the measurement scene and derived the detected temperature signal of the object. Materials and methodsIn this work such compensation was performed for different NIRT imaging application in neonatology (e.g. convective incubators, kangaroo mother care (KMC), and an open radiant warmer). The spatially distributed temperatures of 12 preterm infants (average gestation age 31 weeks) were measured under these different infant care arrangements (i.e. closed care system like a convective incubator, and open care system like kangaroo mother care, and open radiant warmer). ResultsAs errors in measurement of temperature were anticipated, a novel compensation method derived from infrared thermography of the neonate's skin was developed. Moreover, the differences in temperature recording for the 12 preterm infants varied from subject to subject. This variation could be arising from individual experimental setting applied to the same region of interest over the neonate's body. The experimental results for the model-based corrections is verified over the selected patient group. ConclusionThe proposed technique relies on applying model-based correction to the measured temperature and reducing extraneous errors during NIRT. This application specific method is based on different heat flux compartments present in neonatal thermography scene. Furthermore, these results are considered to be groundwork for further investigation, especially when using NIRT imaging arrangement with additional compensation settings together with reference temperature measurements.

A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.

A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

2017-12-01

The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

2008-01-01

Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The effect of water table fluctuation on soil respiration in a lower coastal plain forested wetland in the southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Trettin, Carl C.; McNulty, Steve G.; Sun, Ge; King, John S.

2013-12-01

and environmental pressures on wetland hydrology may trigger changes in carbon (C) cycling, potentially exposing vast amounts of soil C to rapid decomposition. We measured soil CO2 efflux (Rs) continuously from 2009 to 2010 in a lower coastal plain forested wetland in North Carolina, U.S., to characterize its main environmental drivers. To understand and quantify the spatial variation due to microtopography and associated differences in hydrology, measurements were conducted at three microsites along a microtopographic gradient. The seasonal hysteresis in Rs differed by microtopographic location and was caused by the transitions between flooded and nonflooded conditions. Because flooded Rs was small, we reported Rs dynamics mainly during nonflooded periods. A nested model, modified from conventional Q10 (temperature sensitivity) model with dynamic parameters, provided a significantly better simulation on the observed variation of Rs. The model performed better with daily data, indicating that soil temperature (Ts) and water table depth (WTD) were the primary drivers for seasonal variation. The diel variation of Rs was high and independent of Ts and WTD, which both had small diel variations, suggesting the likely association with plant activity. Overall, the site-average soil CO2 efflux was approximately 960-1103 g C m-2 yr-1 in 2010, of which 93% was released during nonflooded periods. Our study indicates that Rs is highly linked to hydroperiod and microtopography in forested wetlands and droughts in wetlands will accelerate soil C loss.

A Process-based, Climate-Sensitive Model to Derive Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Application to 5 Wetland Sites, Sensitivity to Model Parameters and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Bernadette P.; Heimann, Martin

1999-01-01

Methane emissions from natural wetlands constitutes the largest methane source at present and depends highly on the climate. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a 1-dimensional process-based climate-sensitive model to derive methane emissions from natural wetlands is developed. In the model the processes leading to methane emission are simulated within a 1-dimensional soil column and the three different transport mechanisms diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition are modeled explicitly. The model forcing consists of daily values of soil temperature, water table and Net Primary Productivity, and at permafrost sites the thaw depth is included. The methane model is tested using observational data obtained at 5 wetland sites located in North America, Europe and Central America, representing a large variety of environmental conditions. It can be shown that in most cases seasonal variations in methane emissions can be explained by the combined effect of changes in soil temperature and the position of the water table. Our results also show that a process-based approach is needed, because there is no simple relationship between these controlling factors and methane emissions that applies to a variety of wetland sites. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of key model parameters is tested and further sensitivity tests are performed to demonstrate how methane emissions from wetlands respond to climate variations.

Microclimatic temperatures at Danish cattle farms, 2000-2016: quantifying the temporal and spatial variation in the transmission potential of Schmallenberg virus.

PubMed

Haider, Najmul; Cuellar, Ana Carolina; Kjær, Lene Jung; Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Bødker, Rene

2018-03-05

Microclimatic temperatures provide better estimates of vector-borne disease transmission parameters than standard meteorological temperatures, as the microclimate represent the actual temperatures to which the vectors are exposed. The objectives of this study were to quantify farm-level geographic variations and temporal patterns in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Schmallenberg virus transmitted by Culicoides in Denmark through generation of microclimatic temperatures surrounding all Danish cattle farms. We calculated the hourly microclimatic temperatures at potential vector-resting sites within a 500 m radius of 22,004 Danish cattle farms for the months April to November from 2000 to 2016. We then modeled the daily EIP of Schmallenberg virus at each farm, assuming vectors choose resting sites either randomly or based on temperatures (warmest or coolest available) every hour. The results of the model output are presented as 17-year averages. The difference between the warmest and coolest microhabitats at the same farm was on average 3.7 °C (5th and 95th percentiles: 1.0 °C to 7.8 °C). The mean EIP of Schmallenberg virus (5th and 95th percentiles) for all cattle farms during spring, summer, and autumn was: 23 (18-33), 14 (12-18) and 51 (48-55) days, respectively, assuming Culicoides select resting sites randomly. These estimated EIP values were considerably shorter than those estimated using standard meteorological temperatures obtained from a numerical weather prediction model for the same periods: 43 (39-52), 21 (17-24) and 57 (55-58) days, respectively. When assuming that vectors actively select the coolest resting sites at a farm, the EIP was 2.3 (range: 1.1 to 4.1) times longer compared to that of the warmest sites at the same farm. We estimated a wide range of EIP in different microclimatic habitats surrounding Danish cattle farms, stressing the importance of identifying the specific resting sites of vectors when modeling vector-borne disease transmission. We found a large variation in the EIP among different farms, suggesting disease transmission may vary substantially between regions, even within a small country. Our findings could be useful for designing risk-based surveillance, and in the control and prevention of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases.

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R.

2014-01-01

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Chandra, Sushil; Stolarski, Richard S.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Kaye, Jack A.

1991-01-01

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

Understanding Climate Variability of Urban Ecosystems Through the Lens of Citizen Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripplinger, J.; Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ge, C.; Koutzoukis, S.

2017-12-01

The Los Angeles megacity is vulnerable to climate warming - a process that locally exacerbates the urban heat island effect as it intensifies with size and density of the built-up area. We know that large-scale drivers play a role, but in order to understand local-scale climate variation, more research is needed on the biophysical and sociocultural processes driving the urban climate system. In this study, we work with citizen scientists to deploy a high-density network of microsensors across a climate gradient to characterize geographic variation in neighborhood meso- and micro-climates. This research asks: How do urbanization, global climate, and vegetation interact across multiple scales to affect local-scale experiences of temperature? Additionally, citizen scientist-led efforts generated research questions focused on examining microclimatic differences among yard groundcover types (rock mulch vs. lawn vs. artificial turf) and also on variation in temperature related to tree cover. Combining sensor measurements with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) spatial models and satellite-based temperature, we estimate spatially-explicit maps of land surface temperature and air temperature to illustrate the substantial difference between surface and air urban heat island intensities and the variable degree of coupling between land surface and air temperature in urban areas. Our results show a strong coupling between air temperature variation and landcover for neighborhoods, with significant detectable signatures from tree cover and impervious surface. Temperature covaried most strongly with urbanization intensity at nighttime during peak summer season, when daily mean air temperature ranged from 12.8C to 30.4C across all groundcover types. The combined effects of neighborhood geography and vegetation determine where and how temperature and tree canopy vary within a city. This citizen science-enabled research shows how large-scale climate drivers and urbanization intensity jointly influence the nature and magnitude of coupling between air temperature and tree cover, and demonstrate how urban vegetation provides an important ecosystem service in cities by decreasing the intensity of local urban heat islands.

Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation

Treesearch

Estella Gilbert; James A. Powell; Jesse A. Logan; Barbara J. Bentz

2004-01-01

In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and...

A three-dimensional thermal and electromagnetic model of whole limb heating with a MAPA.

PubMed

Charny, C K; Levin, R L

1991-10-01

Previous studies by the authors have shown that if properly implemented, the Pennes assumptions can be applied to quantify bioheat transfer during extremity heating. Given its relative numerical simplicity and its ability to predict temperatures in thermoregulated tissue, the Pennes model of bioheat transfer was utilized in a three-dimensional thermal model of limb heating. While the arterial blood temperature was assumed to be radially uniform within a cross section of the limb, axial gradients in the arterial and venous blood temperatures were computed with this three-dimensional model. A realistically shaped, three-dimensional finite element model of a tumor-bearing human lower leg was constructed and was "attached" mathematically to the whole body thermal model of man described in previous studies by the authors. The central as well as local thermoregulatory feedback control mechanisms which determine blood perfusion to the various tissues and rate of evaporation by sweating were input into the limb model. In addition, the temperature of the arterial blood which feeds into the most proximal section of the lower leg was computed by the whole body thermal model. The variations in the shape of the tissues which comprise the limb were obtained from computerized tomography scans. Axial variations in the energy deposition patterns along the length of the limb exposed to a miniannular phased array (MAPA) applicator were also input into this model of limb heating. Results indicate that proper positioning of the limb relative to the MAPA is a significant factor in determining the effectiveness of the treatment. A patient-specific hyperthermia protocol can be designed using this coupled electromagnetic and thermal model.

Forward Modeling of Carbonate Proxy Data from Planktonic Foraminifera using Oxygen Isotope Tracers in a Global Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.

1999-01-01

The distribution and variation of oxygen isotopes in seawater are calculated using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global ocean model. Simple ecological models are used to estimate the planktonic foraminiferal abundance as a function of depth, column temperature, season, light intensity, and density stratification. These models are combined to forward model isotopic signals recorded in calcareous ocean sediment. The sensitivity of the results to the changes in foraminiferal ecology, secondary calcification, and dissolution are also examined. Simulated present-day isotopic values for ecology relevant for multiple species compare well with core-top data. Hindcasts of sea surface temperature and salinity are made from time series of the modeled carbonate isotope values as the model climate changes. Paleoclimatic inferences from these carbonate isotope records are strongly affected by erroneous assumptions concerning the covariations of temperature, salinity, and delta (sup 18)O(sub w). Habitat-imposed biases are less important, although errors due to temperature-dependent abundances can be significant.

Variation that can be expected when using particle tracking models in connectivity studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufnagl, Marc; Payne, Mark; Lacroix, Geneviève; Bolle, Loes J.; Daewel, Ute; Dickey-Collas, Mark; Gerkema, Theo; Huret, Martin; Janssen, Frank; Kreus, Markus; Pätsch, Johannes; Pohlmann, Thomas; Ruardij, Piet; Schrum, Corinna; Skogen, Morten D.; Tiessen, Meinard C. H.; Petitgas, Pierre; van Beek, Jan K. L.; van der Veer, Henk W.; Callies, Ulrich

2017-09-01

Hydrodynamic Ocean Circulation Models and Lagrangian particle tracking models are valuable tools e.g. in coastal ecology to identify the connectivity between offshore spawning and coastal nursery areas of commercially important fish, for risk assessment and more for defining or evaluating marine protected areas. Most studies are based on only one model and do not provide levels of uncertainty. Here this uncertainty was addressed by applying a suite of 11 North Sea models to test what variability can be expected concerning connectivity. Different notional test cases were calculated related to three important and well-studied North Sea fish species: herring (Clupea harengus), and the flatfishes sole (Solea solea) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). For sole and plaice we determined which fraction of particles released in the respective spawning areas would reach a coastal marine protected area. For herring we determined the fraction located in a wind park after a predefined time span. As temperature is more and more a focus especially in biological and global change studies, furthermore inter-model variability in temperatures experienced by the virtual particles was determined. The main focus was on the transport variability originating from the physical models and thus biological behavior was not included. Depending on the scenario, median experienced temperatures differed by 3 °C between years. The range between the different models in one year was comparable to this temperature range observed between modelled years. Connectivity between flatfish spawning areas and the coastal protected area was highly dependent on the release location and spawning time. No particles released in the English Channel in the sole scenario reached the protected area while up to 20% of the particles released in the plaice scenario did. Interannual trends in transport directions and connectivity rates were comparable between models but absolute values displayed high variations. Most models showed systematic biases during all years in comparison to the ensemble median, indicating that in general interannual variation was represented but absolute values varied. In conclusion: variability between models is generally high and management decisions or scientific analysis using absolute values from only one single model might be biased and results or conclusions drawn from such studies need to be treated with caution. We further concluded that more true validation data for particle modelling are required.

Temperature variations in automobiles in various weather conditions. An experimental contribution to the determination of time of death.

PubMed

Marty, W; Sigrist, T; Wyler, D

2001-09-01

From January 1995 through March 2000, temperatures in the passenger compartment of automobiles of different sizes were measured under varying weather conditions (sunshine, cloudy skies, rain) at two locations in eastern Switzerland. During the cold season, the interior temperature rose to 21 degrees C when cars were exposed to sunshine, whereas in summer interior temperature extremes of up to 89 degrees C were recorded. Make, model, and color of the vehicles were of only minor influence.

Thermal Modelling of Various Thermal Barrier Coatings in a High Flux Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.

1998-01-01

A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of coated and uncoated tubes tested in a H2/O2 rocket engine. Temperatures were predicted for traditional APS ZrO2-Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings, as well as APS and LPPS ZrO2-Y2O3/NiCrAlY cermet coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted and measured metal temperatures at locations near the tube surface or at the inner tube wall. The thermal model was also used to quantitatively examine the effect of various coating system parameters on the temperatures in the substrate and coating. Accordingly, the effect of the presence a metallic bond coat and the effect of radiation from the surface of the ceramic layer were examined. In addition, the effect of a variation in the values of the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer was also investigated. It was shown that a variation in the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer, on the order of that reported in the literature for plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 coatings, can result in temperature differences in the substrate greater than 100 C, a much greater effect than that due to the presence of a bond coat or radiation from the ceramic layer. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of a coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries in order to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the temperature in a tube could exceed that in a rod by more than 100 C. Lastly, a two-dimensional model was developed to evaluate the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube and its impact on reducing the stagnation point temperature. It was also shown that tangential heat transfer does not significantly reduce the stagnation point temperature, thus allowing application of a simpler, one-dimensional model for comparing measured and predicted stagnation point temperatures.

High regional climate sensitivity over continental China constrained by glacial-recent changes in temperature and the hydrological cycle.

PubMed

Eagle, Robert A; Risi, Camille; Mitchell, Jonathan L; Eiler, John M; Seibt, Ulrike; Neelin, J David; Li, Gaojun; Tripati, Aradhna K

2013-05-28

The East Asian monsoon is one of Earth's most significant climatic phenomena, and numerous paleoclimate archives have revealed that it exhibits variations on orbital and suborbital time scales. Quantitative constraints on the climate changes associated with these past variations are limited, yet are needed to constrain sensitivity of the region to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Here, we show central China is a region that experienced a much larger temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum than typically simulated by climate models. We applied clumped isotope thermometry to carbonates from the central Chinese Loess Plateau to reconstruct temperature and water isotope shifts from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We find a summertime temperature change of 6-7 °C that is reproduced by climate model simulations presented here. Proxy data reveal evidence for a shift to lighter isotopic composition of meteoric waters in glacial times, which is also captured by our model. Analysis of model outputs suggests that glacial cooling over continental China is significantly amplified by the influence of stationary waves, which, in turn, are enhanced by continental ice sheets. These results not only support high regional climate sensitivity in Central China but highlight the fundamental role of planetary-scale atmospheric dynamics in the sensitivity of regional climates to continental glaciation, changing greenhouse gas levels, and insolation.

Somatic growth of mussels Mytilus edulis in field studies compared to predictions using BEG, DEB, and SFG models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Poul S.; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik

2014-04-01

Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG model has been expanded to include the temperature dependence of filtration rate and respiration and an ad hoc modification to ensure a smooth transition to zero ingestion as chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration approaches zero, both guided by published data. The first 21-day field study was conducted at nearly constant environmental conditions with a mean chl a concentration of C = 2.7 μg L- 1, and the observed monotonous growth in the dry weight of soft parts was best predicted by DEB while BEG and SFG models produced lower growth. The second 165-day field study was affected by large variations in chl a and temperature, and the observed growth varied accordingly, but nevertheless, DEB and SFG predicted monotonous growth in good agreement with the mean pattern while BEG mimicked the field data in response to observed changes in chl a concentration and temperature. The general features of the models were that DEB produced the best average predictions, SFG mostly underestimated growth, whereas only BEG was sensitive to variations in chl a concentration and temperature. DEB and SFG models rely on the calibration of the half-saturation coefficient to optimize the food ingestion function term to that of observed growth, and BEG is independent of observed actual growth as its predictions solely rely on the time history of the local chl a concentration and temperature.

Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

DOE PAGES

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2015-09-28

Differences in simulations of tropical marine low-cloud cover (LCC) feedback are sources of significant spread in temperature responses of climate models to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that in models the feedback is mainly driven by three large-scale changes—a strengthening tropical inversion, increasing surface latent heat flux, and an increasing vertical moisture gradient. Variations in the LCC response to these changes alone account for most of the spread in model-projected 21st century LCC changes. A methodology is devised to constrain the LCC response observationally using sea surface temperature (SST) as a surrogate for the latent heat flux and moisture gradient.more » In models where the current climate's LCC sensitivities to inversion strength and SST variations are consistent with observed, LCC decreases systematically, which would increase absorption of solar radiation. These results support a positive LCC feedback. Finally, correcting biases in the sensitivities will be an important step toward more credible simulation of cloud feedbacks.« less

Thermal analysis of the vertical bridgman semiconductor crystal growth technique. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasinski, T. J.

1982-01-01

The quality of semiconductor crystals grown by the vertical Bridgman technique is strongly influenced by the axial and radial variations of temperature within the charge. The relationship between the thermal parameters of the vertical Bridgman system and the thermal behavior of the charge are examined. Thermal models are developed which are capable of producing results expressable in analytical form and which can be used without recourse to extensive computer work for the preliminary thermal design of vertical Bridgman crystal growth systems. These models include the effects of thermal coupling between the furnace and the charge, charge translation rate, charge diameter, thickness and thermal conductivity of the confining crucible, thermal conductivity change and liberation of latent heat at the growth interface, and infinite charge length. The hot and cold zone regions, considered to be at spatially uniform temperatures, are separated by a gradient control region which provides added thermal design flexibility for controlling the temperature variations near the growth interface.

Application of an unsteady-state model for predicting vertical temperature distribution to an existing atrium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takemasa, Yuichi; Togari, Satoshi; Arai, Yoshinobu

1996-11-01

Vertical temperature differences tend to be great in a large indoor space such as an atrium, and it is important to predict variations of vertical temperature distribution in the early stage of the design. The authors previously developed and reported on a new simplified unsteady-state calculation model for predicting vertical temperature distribution in a large space. In this paper, this model is applied to predicting the vertical temperature distribution in an existing low-rise atrium that has a skylight and is affected by transmitted solar radiation. Detailed calculation procedures that use the model are presented with all the boundary conditions, andmore » analytical simulations are carried out for the cooling condition. Calculated values are compared with measured results. The results of the comparison demonstrate that the calculation model can be applied to the design of a large space. The effects of occupied-zone cooling are also discussed and compared with those of all-zone cooling.« less

Estimating regional evapotranspiration from remotely sensed data by surface energy balance models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asrar, Ghassem; Kanemasu, Edward; Myneni, R. B.; Lapitan, R. L.; Harris, T. R.; Killeen, J. M.; Cooper, D. I.; Hwang, C.

1987-01-01

Spatial and temporal variations of surface radiative temperatures of the burned and unburned areas of the Konza tallgrass prairie were studied. The role of management practices, topographic conditions and the uncertainties associated with in situ or airborne surface temperature measurements were assessed. Evaluation of diurnal and seasonal spectral characteristics of the burned and unburned areas of the prairie was also made. This was accomplished based on the analysis of measured spectral reflectance of the grass canopies under field conditions, and modelling their spectral behavior using a one dimensional radiative transfer model.

Real-time variations in body temperature of laying hens with increasing ambient temperature at different relative humidity levels.

PubMed

Chang, Y; Wang, X J; Feng, J H; Zhang, M H; Diao, H J; Zhang, S S; Peng, Q Q; Zhou, Y; Li, M; Li, X

2018-05-16

In order to measure the real-time variations in body temperature with increasing ambient temperature (AT) at different relative humidity (RH) levels, 60 Jinghong laying hens (35-wk-old) were raised in 3 controlled climate chambers (10 cages with 2 birds per chamber). The RH was fixed at one of 3 levels comprising 35, 50, or 85%, and the AT was increased gradually by 1 degree per 0.5 h from 18 to 35°C in the 3 chambers. The core temperature (CT) and surface temperature (ST) of the hens, as well as the AT in the 3 chambers were recorded at 3 min intervals using mini temperature data loggers. The data were analyzed with a broken-line model to determine the inflection point temperature (IPT, the certain AT above which the body temperature of the hens started to change). The experiment was repeated 3 times on 3 d. The IPTs of the laying hens were 23.89 and 25.46°C based on ST and CT at 50% RH, respectively, which indicated that the upper critical temperature of the thermoneutral zone of hens may be a specific temperature between 23.89°C and 25.46°C. The IPTs of the laying hens were 24.11 and 25.20°C based on ST and CT at RH 35%, respectively, and 21.93 and 24.45°C at RH 85%. The RH significantly affected the IPT of ST (P < 0.001). The IPTs were higher at 35 and 50% RH than that at 85% RH (P < 0.05). The coefficients of variation for the IPTs between individual hens were 2.96 to 4.51, and coefficients of variation for the IPTs for the same bird measured on 3 d were 0.69 to 1.59, thereby indicating that this method for estimating the IPTs of hens is stable and repeatable, although more samples are needed. In conclusion, our results indicate that analyzing the real-time variation in body temperature with increasing AT is a reliable method for estimating the IPT to provide an important reference for regulating the temperature in poultry houses.

Quantifying stream thermal regimes at management-pertinent scales: combining thermal infrared and stationary stream temperature data in a novel modeling framework.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vatland, Shane J.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Poole, Geoffrey C.

2015-01-01

Accurately quantifying stream thermal regimes can be challenging because stream temperatures are often spatially and temporally heterogeneous. In this study, we present a novel modeling framework that combines stream temperature data sets that are continuous in either space or time. Specifically, we merged the fine spatial resolution of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery with hourly data from 10 stationary temperature loggers in a 100 km portion of the Big Hole River, MT, USA. This combination allowed us to estimate summer thermal conditions at a relatively fine spatial resolution (every 100 m of stream length) over a large extent of stream (100 km of stream) during during the warmest part of the summer. Rigorous evaluation, including internal validation, external validation with spatially continuous instream temperature measurements collected from a Langrangian frame of reference, and sensitivity analyses, suggests the model was capable of accurately estimating longitudinal patterns in summer stream temperatures for this system Results revealed considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in summer stream temperatures and highlighted the value of assessing thermal regimes at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. Preserving spatial and temporal variability and structure in abiotic stream data provides a critical foundation for understanding the dynamic, multiscale habitat needs of mobile stream organisms. Similarly, enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal variation in dynamic water quality attributes, including temporal sequence and spatial arrangement, can guide strategic placement of monitoring equipment that will subsequently capture variation in environmental conditions directly pertinent to research and management objectives.

Research of the diurnal soil respiration dynamic in two typical vegetation communities in Tianjin estuarine wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Meng, W. Q.; Li, H. Y.

2016-08-01

Understanding the differences and diurnal variations of soil respiration in different vegetation communities in coastal wetland is to provide basic reliable scientific evidence for the carbon "source" function of wetland ecosystems in Tianjin.Measured soil respiration rate which changed during a day between two typical vegetation communities (Phragmites australis, Suaeda salsa) in coastal wetland in October, 2015. Soil temperature and moisture were measured at the same time. Each of the diurnal curves of soil temperature in two communities had a single peak value, and the diurnal variations of soil moisture showed a "two peak-one valley" trend. The diurnal dynamic of soil respiration under the two communities had obvious volatility which showed a single peak form with its maximum between 12:00-14:00 and minimum during 18:00. The diurnal average of soil respiration rate in Phragmites australis communities was 3.37 times of that in Suaeda salsa communities. Significant relationships were found by regression analysis among soil temperature, soil moisture and soil respiration rate in Suaeda salsa communities. There could be well described by exponential models which was y = -0.245e0.105t between soil respiration rate and soil temperature, by quadratic models which was y = -0.276×2 + 15.277× - 209.566 between soil respiration rate and soil moisture. But the results of this study showed that there were no significant correlations between soil respiration and soil temperature and soil moisture in Phragmites australis communities (P > 0.05). Therefore, under the specific wetland environment conditions in Tianjin, soil temperature and moisture were not main factors influencing the diurnal variations of soil respiration rate in Phragmites australis communities.

Thermodynamics constrains allometric scaling of optimal development time in insects.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Frazier, Melanie R

2013-01-01

Development time is a critical life-history trait that has profound effects on organism fitness and on population growth rates. For ectotherms, development time is strongly influenced by temperature and is predicted to scale with body mass to the quarter power based on 1) the ontogenetic growth model of the metabolic theory of ecology which describes a bioenergetic balance between tissue maintenance and growth given the scaling relationship between metabolism and body size, and 2) numerous studies, primarily of vertebrate endotherms, that largely support this prediction. However, few studies have investigated the allometry of development time among invertebrates, including insects. Abundant data on development of diverse insects provides an ideal opportunity to better understand the scaling of development time in this ecologically and economically important group. Insects develop more quickly at warmer temperatures until reaching a minimum development time at some optimal temperature, after which development slows. We evaluated the allometry of insect development time by compiling estimates of minimum development time and optimal developmental temperature for 361 insect species from 16 orders with body mass varying over nearly 6 orders of magnitude. Allometric scaling exponents varied with the statistical approach: standardized major axis regression supported the predicted quarter-power scaling relationship, but ordinary and phylogenetic generalized least squares did not. Regardless of the statistical approach, body size alone explained less than 28% of the variation in development time. Models that also included optimal temperature explained over 50% of the variation in development time. Warm-adapted insects developed more quickly, regardless of body size, supporting the "hotter is better" hypothesis that posits that ectotherms have a limited ability to evolutionarily compensate for the depressing effects of low temperatures on rates of biological processes. The remaining unexplained variation in development time likely reflects additional ecological and evolutionary differences among insect species.

Temperature dependence of regioselectivity in nucleophilic photosubstitution of 4-nitroanisole. The activation energy criterion for regioselectivity.

PubMed

Wubbels, Gene G; Danial, Hanan; Policarpio, Danielle

2010-11-19

Photosubstitution of the nitro group vs the methoxy group of triplet 4-nitroanisole by hydroxide ion in water leads to product yields of about 80% 4-methoxyphenol and 20% 4-nitrophenol. The ratio depends slightly on temperature from 3 to 73 °C. The slight temperature variation in the yield ratio is reproduced almost perfectly with a simple Arrhenius model for a mechanism involving bonding of hydroxide ion with the triplet state of 4-nitroanisole. The competing transition states have activation energies of 2.2 and 2.6 kcal/mol, respectively. Correct prediction of regioselectivity can be done for this case by quantum chemical calculation of the competing triplet transition-state energies, or those of the corresponding triplet σ-complexes. Other models for aromatic photosubstitution regioselectivity in mechanisms of the S(N)2Ar* type, such as those based on calculated electron densities, HOMO/LUMO coefficients, or energy gap sizes, are discussed and shown to be inferior to the relative activation energies model. The photoreaction in alcohol solvents, claimed by others to generate the same products as in water and to have an exceedingly large variation of the product ratio with temperature, may reflect chemical changes other than those reported.

Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

1990-09-01

The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

PubMed

Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to climate change. Range edge studies of ectothermic species that have annual life cycles, long time-series occurrence data, and associated temperature records (ideally at monthly resolutions) could be useful model systems for intraspecific tests of the universal ecological responses to climate change and for exploring interactive effects. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

An Illumination- and Temperature-Dependent Analytical Model for Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS) Solar Cells

DOE PAGES

Sun, Xingshu; Silverman, Timothy; Garris, Rebekah; ...

2016-07-18

In this study, we present a physics-based analytical model for copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) solar cells that describes the illumination- and temperature-dependent current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and accounts for the statistical shunt variation of each cell. The model is derived by solving the drift-diffusion transport equation so that its parameters are physical and, therefore, can be obtained from independent characterization experiments. The model is validated against CIGS I-V characteristics as a function of temperature and illumination intensity. This physics-based model can be integrated into a large-scale simulation framework to optimize the performance of solar modules, as well as predict themore » long-term output yields of photovoltaic farms under different environmental conditions.« less

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rotter, R. P.

2015-01-01

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of between-isolate variation for climate change impact modelling of Haemonchus contortus populations.

PubMed

Rose Vineer, H; Steiner, J; Knapp-Lawitzke, F; Bull, K; von Son-de Fernex, E; Bosco, A; Hertzberg, H; Demeler, J; Rinaldi, L; Morrison, A A; Skuce, P; Bartley, D J; Morgan, E R

2016-10-15

The impact of climate change on parasites and parasitic diseases is a growing concern and numerous empirical and mechanistic models have been developed to predict climate-driven spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of parasites and disease risk. Variation in parasite phenotype and life-history traits between isolates could undermine the application of such models at broad spatial scales. Seasonal variation in the transmission of the haematophagous gastrointestinal nematode Haemonchus contortus, one of the most pathogenic helminth species infecting sheep and goats worldwide, is primarily determined by the impact of environmental conditions on the free-living stages. To evaluate variability in the development success and mortality of the free-living stages of H. contortus and the impact of this variability on future climate impact modelling, three isolates of diverse origin were cultured at a range of temperatures between 15°C and 37°C to determine their development success compared with simulations using the GLOWORM-FL H. contortus model. No significant difference was observed in the developmental success of the three isolates of H. contortus tested, nor between isolates and model simulations. However, development success of all isolates at 37°C was lower than predicted by the model, suggesting the potential for overestimation of transmission risk at higher temperatures, such as those predicted under some scenarios of climate change. Recommendations are made for future climate impact modelling of gastrointestinal nematodes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature

PubMed Central

Wang, Weile; Ciais, Philippe; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Canadell, Josep G.; Piao, Shilong; Sitch, Stephen; White, Michael A.; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Milesi, Cristina; Myneni, Ranga B.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r2 ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land–surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature–CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r2 ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh − NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature–CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle. PMID:23884654

Transient Interfacial Phenomena in Miscible Polymer Systems (TIPMPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pojman, John A.; Bessonov, Nicholas; Volpert, Vitaly; Wilke, Hermann

2003-01-01

Almost one hundred years ago Korteweg published a theory of how stresses could be induced in miscible fluids by concentration gradients, causing phenomena that would appear to be the same as with immiscible fluids. Miscible fluids could manifest a transient or effective interfacial tension (EIT). To this day, there has been no definitive experiment to confirm Korteweg's model but numerous fascinating and suggestive experiments have been reported. The goal of TIPMPS is to answer the question: Can concentration and temperature gradients in miscible materials induce stresses that cause convection? Many polymer processes involving miscible monomer and polymer systems could be affected by fluid flow and so this work could help understand miscible polymer processing, not only in microgravity, but also on earth. Demonstrating the existence of this phenomenon in miscible fluids will open up a new area of study for materials science. The science objectives of TIPMPS are: (1) Determine if convection can be induced by variation of the width of a miscible interface; (2) Determine if convection can be induced by variation of temperature along a miscible interface; (3) Determine if convection can be induced by variation of conversion along a miscible interface An interface between two miscible fluids can best be created via a spatially-selective photopolymerization of dodecyl acrylate with a photoinitiator, which allows the creation of precise and accurate concentration gradients between polymer and monomer. Optical techniques will be used to measure the refractive index variation caused by the resultant temperature and concentration fields. The viscosity of the polymer will be measured from the increase in the fluorescence of pyrene. Because the large concentration and temperature gradients cause buoyancy-driven convection that prevents the observation of the predicted flows, the experiment must be done in microgravity. In this report, we will consider our efforts to estimate the square gradient parameter, k, and our use of the estimates in modeling of the planned TIPMPS experiments. We developed a model consisting of the heat and diffusion equations with convective terms and of the Navier-Stokes equations with an additional volume force written in the form of the Korteweg stresses arising from nonlocal interaction in the fluid. The fluid's viscosity dependence on polymer conversion and temperature was taken from measurements of poly(dodecyl acrylate). Numerical modeling demonstrated that significant flows would arise for conditions corresponding to the planned experiments.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

An adaptive compensation algorithm for temperature drift of micro-electro-mechanical systems gyroscopes using a strong tracking Kalman filter.

PubMed

Feng, Yibo; Li, Xisheng; Zhang, Xiaojuan

2015-05-13

We present an adaptive algorithm for a system integrated with micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) gyroscopes and a compass to eliminate the influence from the environment, compensate the temperature drift precisely, and improve the accuracy of the MEMS gyroscope. We use a simplified drift model and changing but appropriate model parameters to implement this algorithm. The model of MEMS gyroscope temperature drift is constructed mostly on the basis of the temperature sensitivity of the gyroscope. As the state variables of a strong tracking Kalman filter (STKF), the parameters of the temperature drift model can be calculated to adapt to the environment under the support of the compass. These parameters change intelligently with the environment to maintain the precision of the MEMS gyroscope in the changing temperature. The heading error is less than 0.6° in the static temperature experiment, and also is kept in the range from 5° to -2° in the dynamic outdoor experiment. This demonstrates that the proposed algorithm exhibits strong adaptability to a changing temperature, and performs significantly better than KF and MLR to compensate the temperature drift of a gyroscope and eliminate the influence of temperature variation.

Evidence for subsurface water ice in Korolev crater, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, J.C.; Titus, T.N.; Kieffer, H.H.

2005-01-01

Following the work of Kieffer and Titus (2001, Icarus 154, 162-180), we present results of thermal IR observations of Korolev crater, located at ???73?? latitude in the martian northern polar region. Similar to techniques employed by Titus et al. (2003, Science 299, 1048-1050), we use infrared images from the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) aboard Mars Odyssey to identify several regions within the crater basin with distinct thermal properties that correlate with topography. The THEMIS results show these regions exhibit temperature variations, spatially within the crater and throughout the martian year. In addition to the variations identified in the THEMIS observations, Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations show differences in albedo and temperature of these regions on both daily and seasonal cycles. Modeling annual temperature variations of the surface, we use TES observations to examine the thermal properties of these regions. This analysis reveals the crater interior deposits are likely thick layers (several meters) of high thermal inertia material (water ice, or extremely ice-rich regolith). Spatial variations of the physical properties of these regions are likely due to topography and possibly variations in the subsurface material itself. The nature of these deposits may help constrain polar processes, as well as provide context for the polar lander mission, Phoenix. ?? 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years

PubMed Central

Cheddadi, Rachid; Araújo, Miguel B.; Maiorano, Luigi; Edwards, Mary; Guisan, Antoine; Carré, Matthieu; Chevalier, Manuel; Pearman, Peter B.

2016-01-01

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges. PMID:27826308

Analysis of year-to-year ozone variation over the subtropical western Pacific region using EP_TOMS data and CCSR/NIES nudging CTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L. B.; Akiyoshi, H.; Kawahira, K.

2003-10-01

The year-to-year ozone variation over the subtropical western Pacific region is studied, especially the ozone lows in the 1996/1997, 1998/1999, and 2001/2002 winters, using the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP_TOMS) ozone data from August 1996 to July 2002. Regression analyses show that dynamical signals, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, play an important role in determining total ozone variation. A nudging chemical transport model (CTM) is used to simulate the year-to-year ozone variation and explain the mechanism for producing ozone lows in a three-dimensional distribution of ozone. The CTM was developed using the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR/NIES) atmospheric general circulation model and introducing a nudging process for temperature and horizontal wind velocity. The year-to-year ozone variation, especially the winter ozone low, is well simulated by the model excluding heterogeneous reaction processes between 45°S and 45°N latitude. Results show that the year-to-year ozone variation is mainly controlled by dynamical transport processes.

Variation in mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in relation to high temperature.

PubMed

Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2013-01-01

Outdoor temperature has been reported to have a significant influence on the seasonal variations of stroke mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of high temperature on the mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The main study goal was to examine the effect of temperature, particularly high temperature, on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. We investigated the association between outdoor temperature and stroke mortality in four metropolitan cities in Korea during 1992-2007. We used time series analysis of the age-adjusted mortality rate for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke deaths by using generalized additive and generalized linear models, and estimated the percentage change of mortality rate associated with a 1°C increase of mean temperature. The temperature-responses for the hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality differed, particularly in the range of high temperature. The estimated percentage change of ischemic stroke mortality above a threshold temperature was 5.4 % (95 % CI, 3.9-6.9 %) in Seoul, 4.1 % (95 % CI, 1.6-6.6 %) in Incheon, 2.3 % (-0.2 to 5.0 %) in Daegu and 3.6 % (0.7-6.6 %) in Busan, after controlling for daily mean humidity, mean air pressure, day of the week, season, and year. Additional adjustment of air pollution concentrations in the model did not change the effects. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing temperature without a threshold in the four cities after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that the mortality of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes show different patterns in relation to outdoor temperature. High temperature was harmful for ischemic stroke but not for hemorrhagic stroke. The risk of high temperature to ischemic stroke did not differ by age or gender.

Variation in mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in relation to high temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2013-01-01

Outdoor temperature has been reported to have a significant influence on the seasonal variations of stroke mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of high temperature on the mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The main study goal was to examine the effect of temperature, particularly high temperature, on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. We investigated the association between outdoor temperature and stroke mortality in four metropolitan cities in Korea during 1992-2007. We used time series analysis of the age-adjusted mortality rate for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke deaths by using generalized additive and generalized linear models, and estimated the percentage change of mortality rate associated with a 1°C increase of mean temperature. The temperature-responses for the hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality differed, particularly in the range of high temperature. The estimated percentage change of ischemic stroke mortality above a threshold temperature was 5.4 % (95 % CI, 3.9-6.9 %) in Seoul, 4.1 % (95 % CI, 1.6-6.6 %) in Incheon, 2.3 % (-0.2 to 5.0 %) in Daegu and 3.6 % (0.7-6.6 %) in Busan, after controlling for daily mean humidity, mean air pressure, day of the week, season, and year. Additional adjustment of air pollution concentrations in the model did not change the effects. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing temperature without a threshold in the four cities after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that the mortality of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes show different patterns in relation to outdoor temperature. High temperature was harmful for ischemic stroke but not for hemorrhagic stroke. The risk of high temperature to ischemic stroke did not differ by age or gender.

Exploring sub-daily to seasonal variations in methane exchange in a single-crop rice paddy in central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, Hiroki; Mano, Masayoshi; Ono, Keisuke; Tokida, Takeshi; Kawazoe, Takahiro; Kosugi, Yoshiko; Sakabe, Ayaka; Takahashi, Kenshi; Miyata, Akira

2018-04-01

Season-long methane (CH4) exchange was observed in a rice paddy field in central Japan (Kanto Region) using the eddy covariance technique to clarify the variations in environmental controls on CH4 exchange in different stages of cultivation. Before heading of rice plant, the CH4 emission depended on wind speed and soil temperature. The soil temperature dependence can be due to an increase in CH4 production, higher molecular diffusion, and higher conductance within rice plant at higher soil temperature. An occurrence of ebullitive emission was also suggested from the wind speed dependence. After heading was completed, relative humidity and water temperature influenced CH4 emission. The amplitude of the diurnal variation in emission increased from 0.03 μmolm-2s-1 in the late pre-heading stage to 0.13 μmolm-2s-1 in the post-heading stage. Induced convective throughflow within the rice aerenchyma after the change in plant structure was attributable to this variation in environmental controls after the heading. After drainage, CH4 emission was confined to short periods after strong rain events. The water level controlled the timing of emission, most likely by influencing the diffusion efficiency from the anoxic soil to the atmosphere and CH4 oxidation in the surface oxic zone. The variation in the dominant transport pathway needs to be accounted for in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict CH4 emission from rice paddies.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Seasonal radiative modeling of Titan's stratospheric temperatures at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bézard, Bruno; Vinatier, Sandrine; Achterberg, Richard K.

2018-03-01

We have developed a seasonal radiative-dynamical model of Titan's stratosphere to investigate the temporal variation of temperatures in the 0.2-4 mbar range observed by the Cassini/CIRS spectrometer. The model incorporates gas and aerosol vertical profiles derived from Cassini/CIRS and Huygens/DISR data to calculate the radiative heating and cooling rate profiles as a function of time and latitude. At 20°S in 2007, the heating rate is larger than the cooling rate at all altitudes, and more specifically by 20-35% in the 0.1-5 mbar range. A new calculation of the radiative relaxation time as a function of pressure level is presented, leading to time constants significantly lower than previous estimates. At 6°N around spring equinox, the radiative equilibrium profile is warmer than the observed one at all levels. Adding adiabatic cooling in the energy equation, with a vertical upward velocity profile approximately constant in pressure coordinates below the 0.02-mbar level (corresponding to 0.03-0.05 cm s-1 at 1 mbar), allows us to reproduce the observed profile quite well. The velocity profile above the ∼0.5-mbar level is however affected by uncertainties in the haze density profile. The model shows that the change in insolation due to Saturn's orbital eccentricity is large enough to explain the observed 4-K decrease in equatorial temperatures around 1 mbar between 2009 and 2016. At 30°N and S, the radiative model predicts seasonal variations of temperature much larger than observed. A seasonal modulation of adiabatic cooling/heating is needed to reproduce the temperature variations observed from 2005 to 2016 between 0.2 and 4 mbar. At 1 mbar, the derived vertical velocities vary in the range -0.05 (winter solstice) to 0.16 (summer solstice) cm s-1 at 30°S, -0.01 (winter solstice) to 0.14 (summer solstice) cm s-1 at 30°N, and 0.03-0.07 cm s-1 at the equator.

A study on parameter variation effects on battery packs for electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Long; Zheng, Yuejiu; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang

2017-10-01

As one single cell cannot meet power and driving range requirement in an electric vehicle, the battery packs with hundreds of single cells connected in parallel and series should be constructed. The most significant difference between a single cell and a battery pack is cell variation. Not only does cell variation affect pack energy density and power density, but also it causes early degradation of battery and potential safety issues. The cell variation effects on battery packs are studied, which are of great significant to battery pack screening and management scheme. In this study, the description for the consistency characteristics of battery packs was first proposed and a pack model with 96 cells connected in series was established. A set of parameters are introduced to study the cell variation and their impacts on battery packs are analyzed through the battery pack capacity loss simulation and experiments. Meanwhile, the capacity loss composition of the battery pack is obtained and verified by the temperature variation experiment. The results from this research can demonstrate that the temperature, self-discharge rate and coulombic efficiency are the major affecting parameters of cell variation and indicate the dissipative cell equalization is sufficient for the battery pack.

Geographical variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism in an Australian lizard, Boulenger's Skink (Morethia boulengeri).

PubMed

Michael, Damian R; Banks, Sam C; Piggott, Maxine P; Cunningham, Ross B; Crane, Mason; MacGregor, Christopher; McBurney, Lachlan; Lindenmayer, David B

2014-01-01

Ecogeographical rules help explain spatial and temporal patterns in intraspecific body size. However, many of these rules, when applied to ectothermic organisms such as reptiles, are controversial and require further investigation. To explore factors that influence body size in reptiles, we performed a heuristic study to examine body size variation in an Australian lizard, Boulenger's Skink Morethia boulengeri from agricultural landscapes in southern New South Wales, south-eastern Australia. We collected tissue and morphological data on 337 adult lizards across a broad elevation and climate gradient. We used a model-selection procedure to determine if environmental or ecological variables best explained body size variation. We explored the relationship between morphology and phylogenetic structure before modeling candidate variables from four broad domains: (1) geography (latitude, longitude and elevation), (2) climate (temperature and rainfall), (3) habitat (vegetation type, number of logs and ground cover attributes), and (4) management (land use and grazing history). Broad phylogenetic structure was evident, but on a scale larger than our study area. Lizards were sexually dimorphic, whereby females had longer snout-vent length than males, providing support for the fecundity selection hypothesis. Body size variation in M. boulengeri was correlated with temperature and rainfall, a pattern consistent with larger individuals occupying cooler and more productive parts of the landscape. Climate change forecasts, which predict warmer temperature and increased aridity, may result in reduced lizard biomass and decoupling of trophic interactions with potential implications for community organization and ecosystem function.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidalmore » variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.« less

Linear Friction Welding Process Model for Carpenter Custom 465 Precipitation-Hardened Martensitic Stainless Steel

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-11

Fig. 9(a) and (b). In addition, the temperature dependencies of the true and room-temperature-based mean values of the linear thermal expansion ...Variation of (a) thermal conductivity, (b) specific heat, (c) true linear thermal expansion coefficient, and (d) room-temperature-based mean thermal ...defined as follows: (a) alloy-grade and thermal -mechanical treatment of the workpiece materials to be joined, (b) frequency of reciprocating motion

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Drivers of surface moisture flux variations in northern terrestrial regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, R.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

The wetness of the high-latitude land surface is strongly dependent on the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET). Variations of ET over daily, seasonal and interannual timescales are poorly documented, as are their relationships to key drivers. A combination of regional climate model output and eddy covariance measurements from five flux tower sites in Alaska are used to test the hypothesis that temperature is the key driver of ET in tundra regions underlain by permafrost, while precipitation plays a greater role in boreal forest areas. At the tundra sites, both the flux tower data and the model simulations show that daily and warm-season totals of ET are largely temperature driven, although daily ET also shows a negative correlation with P. At the boreal forest sites, P is the main driver of year-to-year variations of the seasonally integrated net moisture flux, although ET does not correlate strongly with either P or T. A short period of negative P-ET typically occurs during the warm season in the flux tower data. The model depicts a stronger hydrologic cycle (larger P, larger ET) relative to the measurements at all the sites.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Global characteristics in the diurnal variations of the thermospheric temperature and composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Hedin, A. E.; Reber, C. A.; Carignan, G. R.

1973-01-01

Global characteristics in the diurnal components of OGO-6 neutral mass spectrometer measurements near 450 km are discussed qualitatively as well as quantitatively on the basis of a theoretical model. Observations and conclusion are summarized: (1) During equinox the temperature maximum occurs after 1600 LT at the equator and shifts toward 1500 LT at the poles, while the oxygen concentration at 450 km peaks about one hour earlier. (2) There is general agreement between the magnitudes and phases of the diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiuranal temperature components at 450 km from theory as well as OGO-6 and radar backscatter measurements. (3) The maximum in the diurnal variation of He is observed near 1030 LT consistent with theoretical results which further emphasize the importance of dynamics and diffusion. (4) During solstice conditions the diurnal temperature maximum shifts toward later local times, in substantial agreement with radar temperature measurements. (5) the temperature-oxygen density phase difference at 450 km is observed to decrease with latitude from the winter toward the summer hemisphere, where oxygen may even peak after the temperature at high latitudes.

Regional variations in upper mantle compressional velocities beneath southern California 1. Post-shock temperatures: Their experimental determination, calculation, and implications, 2.. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raikes, S. A.

1978-01-01

The compressional velocity within the upper mantle beneath Southern California is investigated through observations of the dependence of teleseismic P-delays at all stations of the array on the distance and azimuth to the event. The variation of residuals with azimuth was found to be as large as 1.3 sec at a single station; the delays were stable as a function of time, and no evidence was found for temporal velocity variations related to seismic activity in the area. These delays were used in the construction of models for the upper mantle P-velocity structure to depths of 150 km, both by ray tracing and inversion techniques. The models exhibit considerable lateral heterogeneity including a region of low velocity beneath the Imperial Valley, and regions of increased velocity beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Transverse Ranges. The development is described of a technique for the experimental determination of post-shock temperatures, and its application to several metals and silicates shocked to pressures in the range 5 to 30 GPa. The technique utilizes an infra-red radiation detector to determine the brightness temperature of the free surface of the sample after the shock wave has passed through it.

Evolution of crustal stress, pressure and temperature around shear zones during orogenic wedge formation: a 2D thermo-mechanical numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markus Schmalholz, Stefan; Jaquet, Yoann

2016-04-01

We study the formation of an orogenic wedge during lithospheric shortening with 2D numerical simulations. We consider a viscoelastoplastic rheology, thermo-mechanical coupling by shear heating and temperature-dependent viscosities, gravity and erosion. In the initial model configuration there is either a lateral temperature variation at the model base or a lateral variation in crustal thickness to generate slight stress variations during lithospheric shortening. These stress variations can trigger the formation of shear zones which are caused by thermal softening associated with shear heating. We do not apply any kind of strain softening, such as reduction of friction angle with progressive plastic strain. The first major shear zone that appears during shortening crosscuts the entire crust and initiates the asymmetric subduction/underthrusting of mainly the mechanically strong lower crust. After some deformation, the first shear zone in the upper crust is abandoned, the deformation propagates towards the foreland and a new shear zone forms only in the upper crust. The shear zone propagation occurs several times where new shear zones form in the upper crust and the mechanically strong top of the lower crust acts as detachment horizon. We calculate the magnitudes of the maximal and minimal principal stresses and of the mean stress (or dynamic pressure), and we record also the temperature for several marker points in the upper and lower crust. We analyse the evolution of stresses and temperature with burial depth and time. Deviatoric stresses (half the differential stress) in the upper crust are up to 200 MPa and associated shear heating in shear zones ranges between 40 - 80 °C. Lower crustal rocks remain either at the base of the orogenic wedge at depths of around 50 km or are subducted to depths of up to 120 km, depending on their position when the first shear zone formed. Largest deviatotric stresses in the strong part of the lower crust are about 1000 MPa and maximal shear heating in shear zones is approximately 200 °C. Marker points can migrate through the main shear zone in the lower crust which remains active throughout lithospheric shortening. Some pressure-temperature paths show an anti-clockwise evolution. The impact of various model parameters on the results is discussed as well as applications of the results to geological data.

Behavioural response to combined insecticide and temperature stress in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, A; Neumann-Mondlak, A; Good, R T; Green, L M; Schmidt, J M; Robin, C

2016-05-01

Insecticide resistance evolves extremely rapidly, providing an illuminating model for the study of adaptation. With climate change reshaping species distribution, pest and disease vector control needs rethinking to include the effects of environmental variation and insect stress physiology. Here, we assessed how both long-term adaptation of populations to temperature and immediate temperature variation affect the genetic architecture of DDT insecticide response in Drosophila melanogaster. Mortality assays and behavioural assays based on continuous activity monitoring were used to assess the interaction between DDT and temperature on three field-derived populations from climate extremes (Raleigh for warm temperate, Tasmania for cold oceanic and Queensland for hot tropical). The Raleigh population showed the highest mortality to DDT, whereas the Queensland population, epicentre for derived alleles of the resistance gene Cyp6g1, showed the lowest. Interaction between insecticide and temperature strongly affected mortality, particularly for the Tasmanian population. Activity profiles analysed using self-organizing maps show that the insecticide promoted an early response, whereas elevated temperature promoted a later response. These distinctive early or later activity phases revealed similar responses to temperature and DDT dose alone but with more or less genetic variance depending on the population. This change in genetic variance among populations suggests that selection particularly depleted genetic variance for DDT response in the Queensland population. Finally, despite similar (co)variation between traits in benign conditions, the genetic responses across population differed under stressful conditions. This showed how stress-responsive genetic variation only reveals itself in specific conditions and thereby escapes potential trade-offs in benign environments. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

Application of dynamic models to estimate greenhouse gas emission by wastewater treatment plants of the pulp and paper industry.

PubMed

Ashrafi, Omid; Yerushalmi, Laleh; Haghighat, Fariborz

2013-03-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in wastewater treatment plants of the pulp-and-paper industry was estimated by using a dynamic mathematical model. Significant variations were shown in the magnitude of GHG generation in response to variations in operating parameters, demonstrating the limited capacity of steady-state models in predicting the time-dependent emissions of these harmful gases. The examined treatment systems used aerobic, anaerobic, and hybrid-anaerobic/aerobic-biological processes along with chemical coagulation/flocculation, anaerobic digester, nitrification and denitrification processes, and biogas recovery. The pertinent operating parameters included the influent substrate concentration, influent flow rate, and temperature. Although the average predictions by the dynamic model were only 10 % different from those of steady-state model during 140 days of operation of the examined systems, the daily variations of GHG emissions were different up to ± 30, ± 19, and ± 17 % in the aerobic, anaerobic, and hybrid systems, respectively. The variations of process variables caused fluctuations in energy generation from biogas recovery by ± 6, ± 7, and ± 4 % in the three examined systems, respectively. The lowest variations were observed in the hybrid system, showing the stability of this particular process design.

The influence of glacier ice temperature on the long-term evolution of longitudinal valley profiles: Can a landscape escape from the "glacial buzzsaw"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dühnforth, M.; Anderson, R. S.; Colgan, W.

2012-04-01

The long-term pattern of glacial erosion in alpine valleys leads to characteristic longitudinal valley profiles. While landscape evolution models commonly take glacier sliding velocity to be the dominant control on erosion, the influence of spatial and temporal variations in glacier ice temperature on the efficiency of erosion over long timescales (>1 Ma) remains largely unexplored. Yet, the thermal field of a glacier can strongly influence the pattern of sliding. Temperate glaciers, with basal temperatures at the pressure melting point (PMP), slide whenever and wherever the glacial hydrology produces high water pressures. In contrast, in polythermal glaciers, erosion efficiency is strongly linked to basal ice temperature; when and where basal ice temperatures are below the PMP sliding, and hence erosion, are limited. We present results from numerical models in which we explore the influence of variations in glacier ice temperature on long-term glacial erosion processes in alpine valleys. These simulations are motivated by the persistent appeal of geomorphologists to polar glacial conditions to explain sites of unusually low glacial erosion rates. We employ a transient 1D (flowline) ice flow model that numerically solves the continuity equation for ice, and includes a depth-averaged approximation for longitudinal coupling stress. We prescribe separate winter and summer surface mass balance profiles: a capped elevation-dependent snowfall pattern in winter, and we capture both daily and seasonal oscillations in ablation using a positive degree day algorithm in summer. The steady-state ice temperature within the glacier is calculated using the conventional 2D (cross-sectional) heat equation (i.e. diffusion, advection and production terms) at a prescribed interval. The ice temperature model uses the surface temperature at the end of each melt season as the surface boundary condition, and a prescribed geothermal gradient as the basal boundary condition. Basal sliding is limited to sites where the basal ice is at the PMP. Glacial erosion rate is parameterized as a function of sliding velocity, which in turn depends upon a flotation fraction that is parameterized to account for annual variations in the glacial hydrologic system. We explore the long-term glacial erosion pattern when the landscape is subjected to different rock uplift rates, and to climates ranging from continental to maritime. Of specific interest to us are conditions that favor polythermal glaciers in which the basal ice at high elevations becomes cold. In such cases, rock uplift can outpace limited glacial erosion, allowing high peaks to escape from the "glacial buzzsaw" while basal ice at lower elevations remains at the PMP, allowing sliding and erosion. These simulations also allow a more formal assessment of the conditions under which cold basal ice can be invoked to explain low glacial erosion rates, and the conditions under which variations in rock erodibility may instead be invoked as the major control on erosion.

Structure of the middle atmosphere of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zasova, Ludmila

Middle atmosphere of Venus (55-100 km), its mesosphere, is the important layer of atmosphere, where 70 % of the solar energy is absorbed. Most of this absorption takes place in the upper clouds in the altitude range 58-68 km in the spectral range 0.32-0.5 µm. It leads to generation of the thermal tides, playing important role in support of the superrotation. In the frame of COSPAR model VIRA (ASR, 11,1985) the model of the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere was constructed for 5 latitude ranges, based mainly on the Pioneer Venus ORO and OIR data. Using Venera-15 Fourier Spectrometry data, which allow to retrieve the temperature and aerosol profiles in a self consistent way from each spectrum, we enable to update the model of the middle atmosphere, including the local time variation of the temperature for VIRA latitude ranges (Cosmic Research, 44, 4, 2006). From Venera-15 data it was shown that variation of temperature in the middle atmosphere is well described by thermal tides with harmonics 1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 Venusian day, the amplitudes and phases of which depend on latitude and altitude. The model of the upper clouds (VIRA) may also be updated using Venera-15 data. It was shown that the main latitude trend is the decreasing of the upper cloud boundary from 68 km at low latitudes to 60-62 km at high latitudes. Local time variation has a solar related dependence: 1 and 1/2 day components were revealed. Venus Express continues to obtain a lot of data, which may be used for the improvement of the model of the middle atmosphere and the clouds.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations in Response to Geomagnetic Forcing using GRACE Accelerometer Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calabia, A.; Matsuo, T.; Jin, S.

2017-12-01

The upper atmospheric expansion refers to an increase in the temperature and density of Earth's thermosphere due to increased geomagnetic and space weather activities, producing anomalous atmospheric drag on LEO spacecraft. Increased drag decelerates satellites, moving their orbit closer to Earth, decreasing the lifespan of satellites, and making satellite orbit determination difficult. In this study, thermospheric neutral density variations due to geomagnetic forcing are investigated from 10 years (2003-2013) of GRACE's accelerometer-based estimates. In order to isolate the variations produced by geomagnetic forcing, 99.8% of the total variability has been modeled and removed through the parameterization of annual, LST, and solar-flux variations included in the primary Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The residual disturbances of neutral density variations have been investigated further in order to unravel their relationship to several geomagnetic indices and space weather activity indicators. Stronger fluctuations have been found in the southern polar cap, following the dipole-tilt angle variations. While the parameterization of the residual disturbances in terms of Dst index results in the best fit to training data, the use of merging electric field as a predictor leads to the best forecasting performance. An important finding is that modeling of neutral density variations in response geomagnetic forcing can be improved by accounting for the latitude-dependent delay. Our data-driven modeling results are further compared to modeling with TIEGCM.

Groundwater temperature estimation and modeling using hydrogeophysics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, F.; Lesparre, N.; Hermans, T.; Dassargues, A.; Klepikova, M.; Kemna, A.; Caers, J.

2017-12-01

Groundwater temperature may be of use as a state variable proxy for aquifer heat storage, highlighting preferential flow paths, or contaminant remediation monitoring. However, its estimation often relies on scarce temperature data collected in boreholes. Hydrogeophysical methods such as electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) may provide more exhaustive spatial information of the bulk properties of interest than samples from boreholes. If a properly calibrated DTS reading provides direct measurements of the groundwater temperature in the well, ERT requires one to determine the fractional change per degree Celsius. One advantage of this petrophysical relationship is its relative simplicity: the fractional change is often found to be around 0.02 per degree Celcius, and represents mainly the variation of electrical resistivity due to the viscosity effect. However, in presence of chemical and kinetics effects, the variation may also depend on the duration of the test and may neglect reactions occurring between the pore water and the solid matrix. Such effects are not expected to be important for low temperature systems (<30 °C), at least for short experiments. In this contribution, we use different field experiments under natural and forced flow conditions to review developments for the joint use of DTS and ERT to map and monitor the temperature distribution within aquifers, to characterize aquifers in terms of heterogeneity and to better understand processes. We show how temperature time-series measurements might be used to constraint the ERT inverse problem in space and time and how combined ERT-derived and DTS estimation of temperature may be used together with hydrogeological modeling to provide predictions of the groundwater temperature field.

Rotational Raman-based temperature measurements in a high-velocity, turbulent jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locke, Randy J.; Wernet, Mark P.; Anderson, Robert C.

2018-01-01

Spontaneous rotational Raman scattering spectroscopy is used to acquire measurements of the mean and root mean square (rms) temperature fluctuations in turbulent, high-velocity heated jets. Raman spectra in air were obtained across a matrix of radial and axial locations downstream from a 50 mm diameter nozzle operating from subsonic to supersonic conditions over a wide range of temperatures and Mach numbers, in accordance with the Tanna matrix frequently used in jet noise studies. These data were acquired in the hostile, high noise (115 dB) environment of a large scale open air test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Temperature estimates were determined by performing non-linear least squares fitting of the single shot spectra to the theoretical rotational Stokes spectra of N2 and O2. The laser employed in this study was a high energy, long-pulsed, frequency doubled Nd:YAG laser. One thousand single-shot spectra were acquired at each spatial coordinate. Mean temperature and rms temperature variations were calculated at each measurement location. Excellent agreement between the averaged and single-shot temperatures was observed with an accuracy better than 2.5% for temperature, and rms variations in temperature between  ±2.2% at 296 K and  ±4.5% at 850 K. The mean and normalized rms temperatures measured here were then compared to NASA’s Consensus data set of PIV velocity and turbulence measurements in similar jet flows. The results of this and planned follow-on studies will support NASA GRC’s development of physics-based jet noise prediction, turbulence modeling and aeroacoustic source modeling codes.

Radiative energy balance of the Venus mesosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haus, R.; Goering, H.

1990-03-01

An accurate radiative transfer model for line-by-line gaseous absorption, as well as for cloud absorption and multiple scattering, is used in the present calculation of solar heating and thermal cooling rates for standard temperature profiles and temperatures yielded by the Venera 15 Fourier Spectrometer Experiment. A strong dependency is noted for heating and cooling rates on cloud-structure variations. The Venus mesosphere is characterized by main cloud-cover heating and overlying-haze cooling. These results are applicable to Venus atmosphere dynamical models.

Kinetic model for the collisionless sheath of a collisional plasma

DOE PAGES

Tang, Xian-Zhu; Guo, Zehua

2016-08-04

Collisional plasmas typically have mean-free-path still much greater than the Debye length, so the sheath is mostly collisionless. Once the plasma density, temperature, and flow are specified at the sheath entrance, the profile variation of electron and ion density, temperature, flow speed, and conductive heat fluxes inside the sheath is set by collisionless dynamics, and can be predicted by an analytical kinetic model distribution. Finally, these predictions are contrasted in this paper with direct kinetic simulations, showing good agreement.

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. P.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ruedy, R. A.

1992-01-01

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Effect of soil temperature on optical frequency transfer through unidirectional dense-wavelength-division-multiplexing fiber-optic links.

PubMed

Pinkert, T J; Böll, O; Willmann, L; Jansen, G S M; Dijck, E A; Groeneveld, B G H M; Smets, R; Bosveld, F C; Ubachs, W; Jungmann, K; Eikema, K S E; Koelemeij, J C J

2015-02-01

Results of optical frequency transfer over a carrier-grade dense-wavelength-division-multiplexing (DWDM) optical fiber network are presented. The relation between soil temperature changes on a buried optical fiber and frequency changes of an optical carrier through the fiber is modeled. Soil temperatures, measured at various depths by the Royal Netherlands Meteorology Institute (KNMI) are compared with observed frequency variations through this model. A comparison of a nine-day record of optical frequency measurements through the 2×298  km fiber link with soil temperature data shows qualitative agreement. A soil temperature model is used to predict the link stability over longer periods (days-months-years). We show that optical frequency dissemination is sufficiently stable to distribute and compare, e.g., rubidium frequency standards over standard DWDM optical fiber networks using unidirectional fibers.

The role of minerals and mean annual temperature on soil carbon accumulation: A modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramoff, R. Z.; Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

2016-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively cycling terrestrial C pool with mean residence times that can exceed 10,000 years. There is strong evidence suggesting that SOC dynamics depend on soil temperature and C inputs to soil through net primary production (NPP), but it is unclear what the relative importance of these factors is relative to SOC protection by minerals. Recent empirical studies have suggested that mineral protection explains more variation in SOC stock sizes and C respiration fluxes than does NPP or climate. Our previous modeling has demonstrated that representing the chemistry of mineral sorption in a microbially-explicit model affects the temperature sensitivity of SOC dynamics. We apply this modeling framework to interpret observations of SOC stocks, mineral surface availability, mean annual temperature (MAT), and NPP collected along a 4,000 km transect in South America. We use a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and regression to analyze our model output and the empirical data. This analysis shows that mineral surface availability is the dominant control over C respiration and SOC stock, and is substantially larger than the effects of belowground NPP. We further show that minerals interact with MAT to determine the observed range of SOC stocks along this transect in the present day, as well as projected SOC stocks under long-term warming. Our model-data comparison suggests that soil mineralogy and MAT will explain the majority of the spatial variation in SOC stock over decadal-to-millennial timescales. We extend the analysis of these interactions using the ACME Land Model (ALM) coupled with an explicit representation of microbes, minerals, and vertical transport of solutes and gases. The model results confirm the dominant effects of minerals on organic matter decomposition throughout the soil column.

Computing 3-D wavefields in mantle circulations models to test hypotheses on the origin of lower mantle heterogeneity under Africa directly against seismic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuberth, Bernhard; Zaroli, Christophe; Nolet, Guust

2015-04-01

Of particular interest for the tectonic evolution of the Atlantic region is the influence of lower mantle structure under Africa on flow in the upper mantle beneath the ocean basin. Along with its Pacific counterpart, the large African anomaly in the lowermost mantle with strongly reduced seismic velocities has received considerable attention in seismological and geodynamic studies. Several seismological observations are typically taken as an indication that these two anomalies are being caused by large-scale compositional variations and that they are piles of material with higher density than normal mantle rock. This would imply negative buoyancy in the lowermost mantle under Africa, which has important implications for the flow at shallower depth and inferences on the processes that led to the formation of the Atlantic Ocean basin. However, a large number of recent studies argue for a strong thermal gradient across the core-mantle boundary that might provide an alternative explanation for the lower mantle anomaly through the resulting large lateral temperature variations. Recently, we developed a new joint forward modeling approach to test such geodynamic hypotheses directly against the seismic observations: Seismic heterogeneity is predicted by converting the temperature field of a high-resolution 3-D mantle circulation model into seismic velocities using thermodynamic models of mantle mineralogy. 3-D global wave propagation in the synthetic elastic structures is then simulated using a spectral element method. Being based on forward modelling only, this approach allows us to generate synthetic wavefields and seismograms independently of seismic observations. The statistics of observed long-period body wave traveltime variations show a markedly different behaviour for P- and S-waves: the standard deviation of P-wave delay times stays almost constant with ray turning depth, while that of the S-wave delay times increases strongly throughout the mantle. In an earlier study, we showed that synthetic traveltime variations computed for an isochemical mantle circulation model with strong core heating can reproduce these different trends. This was taken as a strong indication that seismic heterogeneity in the lower mantle is likely dominated by thermal variations on large length-scales (i.e., relevant for long-period body waves). We will discuss the robustness of this earlier conclusion by exploring the uncertainties in the mineralogical models used to convert temperatures to seismic velocities. In particular, we investigate the influence of anelasticity on the standard deviation of our synthetic traveltime variations. Owing to the differences in seismic frequency content between laboratory measurements (MHz to GHz) and the Earth (mHz to Hz), the seismic velocities given in the mineralogical model need to be adjusted; that is, corrected for dispersion due to anelastic effects.

An empirical approach to modeling methylmercury concentrations in an Adirondack stream watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Wolock, David M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Riva-Murray, Karen

2014-01-01

Inverse empirical models can inform and improve more complex process-based models by quantifying the principal factors that control water quality variation. Here we developed a multiple regression model that explains 81% of the variation in filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) concentrations in Fishing Brook, a fourth-order stream in the Adirondack Mountains, New York, a known “hot spot” of Hg bioaccumulation. This model builds on previous observations that wetland-dominated riparian areas are the principal source of MeHg to this stream and were based on 43 samples collected during a 33 month period in 2007–2009. Explanatory variables include those that represent the effects of water temperature, streamflow, and modeled riparian water table depth on seasonal and annual patterns of FMeHg concentrations. An additional variable represents the effects of an upstream pond on decreasing FMeHg concentrations. Model results suggest that temperature-driven effects on net Hg methylation rates are the principal control on annual FMeHg concentration patterns. Additionally, streamflow dilutes FMeHg concentrations during the cold dormant season. The model further indicates that depth and persistence of the riparian water table as simulated by TOPMODEL are dominant controls on FMeHg concentration patterns during the warm growing season, especially evident when concentrations during the dry summer of 2007 were less than half of those in the wetter summers of 2008 and 2009. This modeling approach may help identify the principal factors that control variation in surface water FMeHg concentrations in other settings, which can guide the appropriate application of process-based models.

Robust Temperature Control of a Thermoelectric Cooler via μ -Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürkçü, Burak; Kasnakoğlu, Coşku

2018-02-01

In this work robust temperature control of a thermoelectric cooler (TEC) via μ -synthesis is studied. An uncertain dynamical model for the TEC that is suitable for robust control methods is derived. The model captures variations in operating point due to current, load and temperature changes. A temperature controller is designed utilizing μ -synthesis, a powerful method guaranteeing robust stability and performance. For comparison two well-known control methods, namely proportional-integral-derivative (PID) and internal model control (IMC), are also realized to benchmark the proposed approach. It is observed that the stability and performance on the nominal model are satisfactory for all cases. On the other hand, under perturbations the responses of PID and IMC deteriorate and even become unstable. In contrast, the μ -synthesis controller succeeds in keeping system stability and achieving good performance under all perturbations within the operating range, while at the same time providing good disturbance rejection.

Neutral atmospheric models compatible with satellite orbital decay and incoherent scatter measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohrbaugh, J. L.

1972-01-01

A correlation study was made of the variations of the exospheric temperature extrema with various combinations of the monthly mean and daily values of the 2800 MHz and Ca:2 solar indices. The phase and amplitude of the semi-annual component and the term dependent on Kp were found to remain almost the same for the maximum and minimum temperature. The term dependent on the 27 day component of the solar activity was found to be about four times as large for the diurnal maximum as for the minimum. Measurements at Arecibo have shown that temperature gradient changes at 125 km are consistent with the phase difference between the neutral temperature and density maxima. This is used to develop an empirical model which is compatible with both the satellite measurements and the available incoherent scatter measurements. A main feature of this model is that day length is included as a major model parameter.

Modeling the Thermoelectric Properties of Ti5O9 Magnéli Phase Ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Sudeep J.; Joshi, Giri; Wang, Shidong; Curtarolo, Stefano; Gaume, Romain M.

2016-11-01

Magnéli phase Ti5O9 ceramics with 200-nm grain-size were fabricated by hot-pressing nanopowders of titanium and anatase TiO2 at 1223 K. The thermoelectric properties of these ceramics were investigated from room temperature to 1076 K. We show that the experimental variation of the electrical conductivity with temperature follows a non-adiabatic small-polaron model with an activation energy of 64 meV. In this paper, we propose a modified Heikes-Chaikin-Beni model, based on a canonical ensemble of closely spaced titanium t 2g levels, to account for the temperature dependency of the Seebeck coefficient. Modeling of the thermal conductivity data reveals that the phonon contribution remains constant throughout the investigated temperature range. The thermoelectric figure-of-merit ZT of this nanoceramic material reaches 0.3 K at 1076 K.

Properties of the mesosphere and thermosphere and comparison with CIRA 72

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, K. S. W.

Exospheric temperatures of several reference atmosphere are reviewed and a recommendation is made for the exospheric temperature of a proposed mean CIRA. One of the deficiencies of CIRA 72 and other present thermospheric models is the representation of density changes with geomagnetic activity. This deficiency is illustrated with samples of data. The data show the effects of geomagnetic activity, particle precipitation, a solar proton event, and gravity waves. An empirical model developed from the unique AFGL satellite density data bank using multiple linear regression is reviewed. The present model is for low to moderate solar flux and quiet geomagnetic conditions, but it is planned to extend the model to active conditions. Good progress has been made since CIRA 72 was specified in our knowledge and understanding of the properties of the lower thermosphere, although there are still some unresolved problems. The biggest progress has been made in the theory of tidal effects and of particulate energy deposition and of electrojet heating. On the other hand, it is still not possible to define adequately the systematic variations of the lower boundary conditions of thermospheric models. This is due to lack of knowledge of the systematic variations of the structure properties in the 100 to 120 km altitude region and inadequate information on the mesospheric turbulence profile and variations in the turbopause altitude.

Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

PubMed Central

NOYOLA, D. E.; MANDEVILLE, P. B.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections between October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49·8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32·5% was explained by the study week and 17·3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics. PMID:18177520