Development of a Systematic Stakeholder Identification System for 3VS Modeling in the Snohomish Basin, Washington, USA

EPA Science Inventory

In the Environmental Protection Agency’s Triple Value Simulation (3VS) models, social, economic and environmental indicators are utilized to understand the interrelated impacts of programs and regulations on ecosystems and human communities. Critical to identifying the app...

Environmental Impact Assessment and End-of-Life Treatment Policy Analysis for Li-Ion Batteries and Ni-MH Batteries

PubMed Central

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-01-01

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries’ environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries. PMID:24646862

Environmental impact assessment and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries.

PubMed

Yu, Yajuan; Chen, Bo; Huang, Kai; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong

2014-03-18

Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Eco-indicator 99 method, a LCA model was applied to conduct environmental impact and end-of-life treatment policy analysis for secondary batteries. This model evaluated the cycle, recycle and waste treatment stages of secondary batteries. Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries and Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries were chosen as the typical secondary batteries in this study. Through this research, the following results were found: (1) A basic number of cycles should be defined. A minimum cycle number of 200 would result in an obvious decline of environmental loads for both battery types. Batteries with high energy density and long life expectancy have small environmental loads. Products and technology that help increase energy density and life expectancy should be encouraged. (2) Secondary batteries should be sorted out from municipal garbage. Meanwhile, different types of discarded batteries should be treated separately under policies and regulations. (3) The incineration rate has obvious impact on the Eco-indicator points of Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) batteries. The influence of recycle rate on Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is more obvious. These findings indicate that recycling is the most promising direction for reducing secondary batteries' environmental loads. The model proposed here can be used to evaluate environmental loads of other secondary batteries and it can be useful for proposing policies and countermeasures to reduce the environmental impact of secondary batteries.

Assessing residential exposure to urban noise using environmental models: does the size of the local living neighborhood matter?

PubMed

Tenailleau, Quentin M; Bernard, Nadine; Pujol, Sophie; Houot, Hélène; Joly, Daniel; Mauny, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Environmental epidemiological studies rely on the quantification of the exposure level in a surface defined as the subject's exposure area. For residential exposure, this area is often the subject's neighborhood. However, the variability of the size and nature of the neighborhoods makes comparison of the findings across studies difficult. This article examines the impact of the neighborhood's definition on environmental noise exposure levels obtained from four commonly used sampling techniques: address point, façade, buffers, and official zoning. A high-definition noise model, built on a middle-sized French city, has been used to estimate LAeq,24 h exposure in the vicinity of 10,825 residential buildings. Twelve noise exposure indicators have been used to assess inhabitants' exposure. Influence of urban environmental factors was analyzed using multilevel modeling. When the sampled area increases, the average exposure increases (+3.9 dB), whereas the SD decreases (-1.6 dB) (P<0.01). Most of the indicators differ statistically. When comparing indicators from the 50-m and 400-m radius buffers, the assigned LAeq,24 h level varies across buildings from -9.4 to +22.3 dB. This variation is influenced by urban environmental characteristics (P<0.01). On the basis of this study's findings, sampling technique, neighborhood size, and environmental composition should be carefully considered in further exposure studies.

A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

PubMed

Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

2011-01-01

Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

Status of the database on microorganism inactivation in environmental media (DIMEM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inactivation of pathogenic and indicator microorganisms is the essential component of their environmental fate which needs to be considered in environmental microbiology models. Existing data from a large number of inactivation experiments are dispersed across numerous publications with varying avai...

Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

PubMed

Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

2018-06-01

The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching Desirable Environmental Ethics and Action through School Activities. ERIC/SMEAC Environmental Education Digest No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howe, Robert W.; Disinger, John F.

One of the major goals of environmental education is developing students with positive environmental ethics and motivated to take desirable environmental actions. Research indicates that attitudes and behaviors of individuals are frequently modeled after the attitude and behavior of others. Since most youth spend 6 to 7 hours per day in school…

Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.

2000-01-01

"What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead of promoting passive or self-righteous decisions.

Multivariate modelling of endophenotypes associated with the metabolic syndrome in Chinese twins.

PubMed

Pang, Z; Zhang, D; Li, S; Duan, H; Hjelmborg, J; Kruse, T A; Kyvik, K O; Christensen, K; Tan, Q

2010-12-01

The common genetic and environmental effects on endophenotypes related to the metabolic syndrome have been investigated using bivariate and multivariate twin models. This paper extends the pairwise analysis approach by introducing independent and common pathway models to Chinese twin data. The aim was to explore the common genetic architecture in the development of these phenotypes in the Chinese population. Three multivariate models including the full saturated Cholesky decomposition model, the common factor independent pathway model and the common factor common pathway model were fitted to 695 pairs of Chinese twins representing six phenotypes including BMI, total cholesterol, total triacylglycerol, fasting glucose, HDL and LDL. Performances of the nested models were compared with that of the full Cholesky model. Cross-phenotype correlation coefficients gave clear indication of common genetic or environmental backgrounds in the phenotypes. Decomposition of phenotypic correlation by the Cholesky model revealed that the observed phenotypic correlation among lipid phenotypes had genetic and unique environmental backgrounds. Both pathway models suggest a common genetic architecture for lipid phenotypes, which is distinct from that of the non-lipid phenotypes. The declining performance with model restriction indicates biological heterogeneity in development among some of these phenotypes. Our multivariate analyses revealed common genetic and environmental backgrounds for the studied lipid phenotypes in Chinese twins. Model performance showed that physiologically distinct endophenotypes may follow different genetic regulations.

Use of the Oslo-Potsdam Solution to test the effect of an environmental education model on tangible measures of environmental protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, Philip Craig

The fundamental goals of environmental education include the creation of an environmentally literate citizenry possessing the knowledge, skills, and motivation to objectively analyze environmental issues and engage in responsible behaviors leading to issue resolution and improved or maintained environmental quality. No existing research, however, has linked educational practices and environmental protection. In an original attempt to quantify the pedagogy - environmental protection relationship, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to investigate local environmental records and environmental quality indices that reflected the results of student actions. The data were analyzed using an educational adaptation of the "Oslo-Potsdam Solution for International Environmental Regime Effectiveness." The new model, termed the Environmental Education Performance Indicator (EEPI), was developed and evaluated as a quantitative tool for testing and fairly comparing the efficacy of student-initiated environmental projects in terms of environmental quality measures. Five case studies were developed from descriptions of student actions and environmental impacts as revealed by surveys and interviews with environmental education teachers using the IEEIA (Investigating and Evaluating Environmental Issues and Actions) curriculum, former students, community members, and agency officials. Archival information was also used to triangulate the data. In addition to evaluating case study data on the basis of the EEPI model, an expert panel of evaluators consisting of professionals from environmental education, natural sciences, environmental policy, and environmental advocacy provided subjective assessments on the effectiveness of each case study. The results from this study suggest that environmental education interventions can equip and empower students to act on their own conclusions in a manner that leads to improved or maintained environmental conditions. The EEPI model shows promise in providing a more consistent, accurate and objective evaluation than is possible with subjective analysis. Recommendations are offered to guide further research on establishing the environmental education - environmental quality link. Ultimately, a research framework for determining which educational strategies are most effectively linked to demonstrable environmental quality outcomes will have utility in both educational and public policy arenas.

Improving Ecological Response Monitoring of Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Alison J.; Gawne, Ben; Beesley, Leah; Koehn, John D.; Nielsen, Daryl L.; Price, Amina

2015-05-01

Environmental flows are now an important restoration technique in flow-degraded rivers, and with the increasing public scrutiny of their effectiveness and value, the importance of undertaking scientifically robust monitoring is now even more critical. Many existing environmental flow monitoring programs have poorly defined objectives, nonjustified indicator choices, weak experimental designs, poor statistical strength, and often focus on outcomes from a single event. These negative attributes make them difficult to learn from. We provide practical recommendations that aim to improve the performance, scientific robustness, and defensibility of environmental flow monitoring programs. We draw on the literature and knowledge gained from working with stakeholders and managers to design, implement, and monitor a range of environmental flow types. We recommend that (1) environmental flow monitoring programs should be implemented within an adaptive management framework; (2) objectives of environmental flow programs should be well defined, attainable, and based on an agreed conceptual understanding of the system; (3) program and intervention targets should be attainable, measurable, and inform program objectives; (4) intervention monitoring programs should improve our understanding of flow-ecological responses and related conceptual models; (5) indicator selection should be based on conceptual models, objectives, and prioritization approaches; (6) appropriate monitoring designs and statistical tools should be used to measure and determine ecological response; (7) responses should be measured within timeframes that are relevant to the indicator(s); (8) watering events should be treated as replicates of a larger experiment; (9) environmental flow outcomes should be reported using a standard suite of metadata. Incorporating these attributes into future monitoring programs should ensure their outcomes are transferable and measured with high scientific credibility.

EPI Suite™-Estimation Program Interface

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPISuite predicts various physical-chemical properties and environmental fate endpoints and also include models for environmental transport. Running the tool will give the user an indication of the transport and persistence of a chemical

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

2014-03-01

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

Explanatory Power of Multi-scale Physical Descriptors in Modeling Benthic Indices Across Nested Ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holburn, E. R.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Poff, N. L.; Cuhaciyan, C. O.

2005-05-01

Using over 300 R/EMAP sites in OR and WA, we examine the relative explanatory power of watershed, valley, and reach scale descriptors in modeling variation in benthic macroinvertebrate indices. Innovative metrics describing flow regime, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic-distance weighted watershed and valley characteristics are used in multiple regression and regression tree modeling to predict EPT richness, % EPT, EPT/C, and % Plecoptera. A nested design using seven ecoregions is employed to evaluate the influence of geographic scale and environmental heterogeneity on the explanatory power of individual and combined scales. Regression tree models are constructed to explain variability while identifying threshold responses and interactions. Cross-validated models demonstrate differences in the explanatory power associated with single-scale and multi-scale models as environmental heterogeneity is varied. Models explaining the greatest variability in biological indices result from multi-scale combinations of physical descriptors. Results also indicate that substantial variation in benthic macroinvertebrate response can be explained with process-based watershed and valley scale metrics derived exclusively from common geospatial data. This study outlines a general framework for identifying key processes driving macroinvertebrate assemblages across a range of scales and establishing the geographic extent at which various levels of physical description best explain biological variability. Such information can guide process-based stratification to avoid spurious comparison of dissimilar stream types in bioassessments and ensure that key environmental gradients are adequately represented in sampling designs.

Subject Indicators to Present the Nature and Limit of Environmental Studies in U.S. Graduate Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, H. S.; Dixon, James P.

1993-01-01

Examines the lack of interdisciplinary communication in environmental education programs in U.S. graduate schools. Following comparative historical reviews of environmental protection activities, presents a computer-developed curriculum model base containing 15 subject areas: philosophy, politics, economics, architecture, sociology, biology,…

Development of a model to assess environmental performance, concerning HSE-MS principles.

PubMed

Abbaspour, M; Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, F; Karbassi, A R; Roayaei, E; Nikoomaram, H

2010-06-01

The main objective of the present study was to develop a valid and appropriate model to evaluate companies' efficiency and environmental performance, concerning health, safety, and environmental management system principles. The proposed model overcomes the shortcomings of the previous models developed in this area. This model has been designed on the basis of a mathematical method known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). In order to differentiate high-performing companies from weak ones, one of DEA nonradial models named as enhanced Russell graph efficiency measure has been applied. Since some of the environmental performance indicators cannot be controlled by companies' managers, it was necessary to develop the model in a way that it could be applied when discretionary and/or nondiscretionary factors were involved. The model, then, has been modified on a real case that comprised 12 oil and gas general contractors. The results showed the relative efficiency, inefficiency sources, and the rank of contractors.

How to use composite indicator and linear programming model for determine sustainable tourism.

PubMed

Ziaabadi, Maryam; Malakootian, Mohammad; Zare Mehrjerdi, Mohammad Reza; Jalaee, Seied Abdolmajid; Mehrabi Boshrabadi, Hosein

2017-01-01

The tourism industry which is one of the most dynamic economic activities in today's world plays a significant role in the sustainable development. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to tourism, sustainable tourism must be taken into huge account; otherwise, the environment and its health will be damaged irreparably. To determine the level of sustainability in this study, indicators of sustainable tourism were first presented in three environmental health, economic and social aspects. Then, the levels of sustainable tourism and environmental sustainability were practically measured in different cities of Kerman Province using a composite indicator, a linear programming model, Delphi method and the questionnaire technique. Finally, the study cities (tourist attractions) were ranked. Result of this study showed that unfortunately the tourism opportunities were not used appropriately in these cities and tourist destinations, and that environmental aspect (health and environmental sustainability) had very bad situations compared to social and economic aspects. In other words, environmental health had the lowest levels of sustainability. The environment is a place for all human activities like tourism, social and economic issues; therefore, its stability and health is of great importance. Thus, it is necessary to pay more attention to sustainability of activities, management and environmental health in planning sustainable development in regional and national policy.

Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net; Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr; Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr

2015-01-15

The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using themore » developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.« less

Assessment of Soil Environmental Quality in Huangguoshu Waterfalls Scenic Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Rongbin; Feng, Kaiyu; Gu, Bo; Xu, Chengcheng

2018-03-01

This paper concentrates on five major heavy metal pollutants as soil environmental quality evaluation factors, respectively Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), Mercury (Hg), Arsenic (As), Chromium (Cr), based on the National Soil Environmental Quality Standards (GB15618 - 1995), we used single factor index evaluation model of soil environmental quality and comprehensive index evaluation model to analyze surface soil environmental quality in the Huangguoshu Waterfalls scenic area. Based on surface soil analysis, our results showed that the individual contamination index, Pb, Hg, As and Cr in the Huangguoshu Waterfalls scenic area met class I according to requirements of National Soil Environmental Quality Standards, which indicated that Pb, Hg, As and Cr were not main heavy metal pollutants in this area, but the individual contamination index of Cd in soil was seriously exceeded National Soil Environmental Quality Standards’ requirement. Soil environmental quality in Shitouzhai, Luoshitan, Langgong Hongyan Power Plant have exceeded the requirement of National Soil Environmental Quality Standards “0.7< Pc≤ 1.0” (Alert Level), these soils had been slightly polluted; the classification of soil environmental quality assessment in Longgong downstream area was above “Alert Level”, it indicated that soil in this area was not polluted. Above all, relevant measures for soil remediation are put forward.

Estimating freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns of Klamath River Coho Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Faukner, Jimmy; Soto, Toz

2018-01-01

An area of great importance to resource management and conservation biology in the Klamath Basin is balancing water usage against the life history requirements of threatened Coho Salmon. One tool for addressing this topic is a freshwater dynamics model to forecast Coho Salmon productivity based on environmental inputs. Constructing such a forecasting tool requires local data to quantify the unique life history processes of Coho Salmon inhabiting this region. Here, we describe analytical methods for estimating a series of sub-models, each capturing a different life history process, which will eventually be synchronized as part of a freshwater dynamics model for Klamath River Coho Salmon. Specifically, we draw upon extensive population monitoring data collected in the basin to estimate models of freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns. Our models of freshwater productivity indicated that high summer temperatures and high winter flows can both adversely affect smolt production and that such relationships are more likely in tributaries with naturally regulated flows due to substantial intraannual environmental variation. Our models of overwinter survival demonstrated extensive variability in survival among years, but not among rearing locations, and demonstrated that a substantial proportion (~ 20%) of age-0+ fish emigrate from some rearing sites in the winter. Our models of migration patterns indicated that many age-0+ fish redistribute in the basin during the summer and winter. Further, we observed that these redistributions can entail long migrations in the mainstem where environmental stressors likely play a role in cueing refuge entry. Finally, our models of migration patterns indicated that changes in discharge are important in cueing the seaward migration of smolts, but that the nature of this behavioral response can differ dramatically between tributaries with naturally and artificially regulated flows. Collectively, these analyses demonstrate that environmental variation interacts with most phases of the freshwater life history of Klamath River Coho Salmon and that anthropogenic environmental variation can have a particularly large bearing on productivity.

A thermodynamic analysis of the environmental indicators of natural gas combustion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsukov, V. K.

2010-07-01

Environmental indicators of the natural gas combustion process are studied using the model of extreme intermediate states developed at the Melent’ev Institute of Power Engineering Systems. Technological factors responsible for generation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and hydrogen cyanide are revealed. Measures for reducing the amounts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, hydrogen cyanide, nitrogen oxide, and other pollutants emitted from boilers are developed.

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

PubMed

Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

2015-06-01

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of pricing due to greater susceptibility to climate vagaries. The livelihood and poverty results highlight the importance of the holistic consideration of the human-nature system and the careful selection of poverty indicators. Although the simulation model at this stage contains the minimum elements required to simulate the complexity of farmer livelihood interactions in coastal Bangladesh, the crop and socio-economic findings compare well with expected behaviours. The presented integrated model is the first step to develop a holistic, transferable analytic method and tool for coastal Bangladesh.

Effect of economic growth and environmental quality on tourism in Southeast Asian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firmansyah

2017-02-01

The tourism is an important sector in generating income for a country, nevertheless, tourism is sensitive toward the changes in economy, as well as changes in environmental quality. By employing econometric models of error correction on annual data, this study examines the influence of environmental quality, domestic and global economic growth on foreign tourist arrivals in selected Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Singapore. The findings of this study showed that all of countries long run model were proved statistically, indicated that world economic growth as well as environmental quality affect foreign tourism arrivals.

Medaka as a model for studying environmentally induced epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of phenotypes

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Ability of environmental stressors to induce transgenerational diseases has been experimentally demonstrated in plants, worms, fish, and mammals, indicating that exposures affect not only human health but also fish and ecosystem health. Small aquarium fish have been reliable model to study genetic and epigenetic basis of development and disease. Additionally, fish can also provide better, economic opportunity to study transgenerational inheritance of adverse health and epigenetic mechanisms. Molecular mechanisms underlying germ cell development in fish are comparable to those in mammals and humans. This review will provide a short overview of long-term effects of environmental chemical contaminant exposure in various models, associated epigenetic mechanisms, and a perspective on fish as model to study environmentally induced transgenerational inheritance of altered phenotypes. PMID:29492282

Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

2016-12-01

More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

Multi-objective optimization model of CNC machining to minimize processing time and environmental impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Aulia; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur; Jauhari, Wakhid Ahmad

2017-11-01

Minimizing processing time in a production system can increase the efficiency of a manufacturing company. Processing time are influenced by application of modern technology and machining parameter. Application of modern technology can be apply by use of CNC machining, one of the machining process can be done with a CNC machining is turning. However, the machining parameters not only affect the processing time but also affect the environmental impact. Hence, optimization model is needed to optimize the machining parameters to minimize the processing time and environmental impact. This research developed a multi-objective optimization to minimize the processing time and environmental impact in CNC turning process which will result in optimal decision variables of cutting speed and feed rate. Environmental impact is converted from environmental burden through the use of eco-indicator 99. The model were solved by using OptQuest optimization software from Oracle Crystal Ball.

Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2015-01-01

Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative) in the summer and fall.These observations, combined with our ability to estimate the occurrence, magnitude and direction of fish movement between these habitat types, indicated that heterogeneity in response may provide a mechanism providing potential resilience to environmental change. Given that the challenges we faced in our study are likely to be common to many intensive data sets, the integrated modelling approach could be generally applicable and useful.

Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture-recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network.

PubMed

Letcher, Benjamin H; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D; Nislow, Keith H; Coombs, Jason A; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B; Whiteley, Andrew R; O'Donnell, Matthew J; Dubreuil, Todd L

2015-03-01

Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses. We developed an integrated capture-recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature. Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative) in the summer and fall. These observations, combined with our ability to estimate the occurrence, magnitude and direction of fish movement between these habitat types, indicated that heterogeneity in response may provide a mechanism providing potential resilience to environmental change. Given that the challenges we faced in our study are likely to be common to many intensive data sets, the integrated modelling approach could be generally applicable and useful. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Sustainable Food Security Measurement: A Systemic Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Findiastuti, W.; Singgih, M. L.; Anityasari, M.

2017-04-01

Sustainable food security measures how a region provides food for its people without endangered the environment. In Indonesia, it was legally measured in Food Security and Vulnerability (FSVA). However, regard to sustainable food security policy, the measurement has not encompassed the environmental aspect. This will lead to lack of environmental aspect information for adjusting the next strategy. This study aimed to assess Sustainable Food security by encompassing both food security and environment aspect using systemic eco-efficiency. Given existing indicator of cereal production level, total emission as environment indicator was generated by constructing Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). Then, a stock-flow diagram was used to develop systemic simulation model. This model was demonstrated for Indonesian five provinces. The result showed there was difference between food security order with and without environmental aspect assessment.

Managing the environmental impacts of land transport: integrating environmental analysis with urban planning.

PubMed

Irving, Paul; Moncrieff, Ian

2004-12-01

Ecological systems have limits or thresholds that vary by pollutant type, emissions sources and the sensitivity of a given location. Human health can also indicate sensitivity. Good environmental management requires any problem to be defined to obtain efficient and effective solutions. Cities are where transport activities, effects and resource management decisions are often most focussed. The New Zealand Ministry of Transport has developed two environmental management tools. The Vehicle Fleet Model (VFM) is a predictive database of the environmental performance of the New Zealand traffic fleet (and rail fleet). It calculates indices of local air quality, stormwater, and greenhouse gases emissions. The second is an analytical process based on Environmental Capacity Analysis (ECA). Information on local traffic is combined with environmental performance data from the Vehicle Fleet Model. This can be integrated within a live, geo-spatially defined analysis of the overall environmental effects within a defined local area. Variations in urban form and activity (traffic and other) that contribute to environmental effects can be tracked. This enables analysis of a range of mitigation strategies that may contribute, now or in the future, to maintaining environmental thresholds or meeting targets. A case study of the application of this approach was conducted within Waitakere City. The focus was on improving the understanding of the relative significance of stormwater contaminants derived from land transport.

Opinion Formation on Environmental Protection: Understanding the Origins of Attitudes toward Resource Enhancement and Protection in Iowa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Lulu; Farnall, Olan; Geske, Joel; Peterson, Jane W.

1998-01-01

A study of 483 Iowa citizens and state legislators found that self-interest had the strongest effect on formation of opinions toward environmental protection; sociotropic and symbolic politics models were also effective. Results indicate that campaign messages must stress the benefits of environmental protection to the individual. (JOW)

Workshop summary: connecting social and environmental factors to measure and track environmental health disparities.

PubMed

Payne-Sturges, Devon; Gee, Gilbert C; Crowder, Kirstin; Hurley, Bradford J; Lee, Charles; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Rosenbaum, Arlene; Schulz, Amy; Wells, Charles; Woodruff, Tracey; Zenick, Hal

2006-10-01

On May 24-25, 2005 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the US Environmental Protection Agency, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, and the University of Michigan sponsored a technical workshop on the topic of connecting social and environmental factors to measure and track environmental health disparities. The workshop was designed to develop a transdisciplinary scientific foundation for exploring the conceptual issues, data needs, and policy applications associated with social and environmental factors used to measure and track racial, ethnic, and class disparities in environmental health. Papers, presentations, and discussions focused on the use of multilevel analysis to study environmental health disparities, the development of an organizing framework for evaluating health disparities, the development of indicators, and the generation of community-based participatory approaches for indicator development and use. Group exercises were conducted to identify preliminary lists of priority health outcomes and potential indicators and to discuss policy implications and next steps. Three critical issues that stem from the workshop were: (a) stronger funding support is needed for community-based participatory research in environmental health disparities, (b) race/ethnicity and socioeconomic position need to be included in environmental health surveillance and research, and (c) models to elucidate the interrelations between social, physical, and built environments should continue to be developed and empirically tested.

Environmental Quality Index - Overview Report | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A better estimate of overall environmental quality is needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and humanhealth. Described in this report is the effort to construct an environmental quality index representing multiple domains of the ambient environment, includingair, water, land, built and sociodemographic for all counties in the U.S. for the time period including the years 2000-2005. The EQI was created for two mainpurposes: a.) as an indicator of ambient conditions/exposure in environmental health modeling and b.) as a covariate to adjust for ambient conditions inenvironmental models. However, as detailed in the discussion of this report, the EQI can be adapted and used for other objectives. The EQI was developedin four parts: domain identification; data source identification and review; variable construction; and data reduction. Each of these four areas represents achapter in the report where detailed information is provided on the development of the EQI. The methods applied provide a reproducible approach thatcapitalizes almost exclusively on publically-available data sources.This report is written as an overview to the companion technical document. A better estimate of overall environmental quality is needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and human health. An environmental quality index (EQI) was developed for all counties in the U.S. using indicators from the

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

PubMed

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Longgao, E-mail: chenlonggao@163.com; Yang, Xiaoyan; School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116

Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustratedmore » by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to identify key indicators and set up a strategy to mitigate negative environmental impact.« less

LCA-based optimization of wood utilization under special consideration of a cascading use of wood.

PubMed

Höglmeier, Karin; Steubing, Bernhard; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele; Richter, Klaus

2015-04-01

Cascading, the use of the same unit of a resource in multiple successional applications, is considered as a viable means to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and to decrease environmental impacts. Wood, as a regrowing but nevertheless limited and increasingly in demand resource, can be used in cascades, thereby increasing the potential efficiency per unit of wood. This study aims to assess the influence of cascading wood utilization on optimizing the overall environmental impact of wood utilization. By combining a material flow model of existing wood applications - both for materials provision and energy production - with an algebraic optimization tool, the effects of the use of wood in cascades can be modelled and quantified based on life cycle impact assessment results for all production processes. To identify the most efficient wood allocation, the effects of a potential substitution of non-wood products were taken into account in a part of the model runs. The considered environmental indicators were global warming potential, particulate matter formation, land occupation and an aggregated single score indicator. We found that optimizing either the overall global warming potential or the value of the single score indicator of the system leads to a simultaneous relative decrease of all other considered environmental impacts. The relative differences between the impacts of the model run with and without the possibility of a cascading use of wood were 7% for global warming potential and the single score indicator, despite cascading only influencing a small part of the overall system, namely wood panel production. Cascading led to savings of up to 14% of the annual primary wood supply of the study area. We conclude that cascading can improve the overall performance of a wood utilization system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking Indicators: Key Research Questions to Guide Decisions on What to Measure, Map and Model

EPA Science Inventory

Public policy increasingly demands insight into the social consequences of environmental policy and drivers of human behaviors that affect the environment. Social consequences can provide potent justifications for environmental protection and management, and human preferences and...

Scientists Probe Pesticide Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chemical and Engineering News, 1974

1974-01-01

Summarizes discussions of a symposium on pesticide environmental dynamics with emphases upon pesticide transport processes, environmental reactions, and partitioning in air, soil, water and living organisms. Indicates that the goal is to attain knowledge enough to predict pesticide behavior and describe pesticide distribution with models and…

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

Correlations between environmental factors and wild bee behavior on alfalfa (Medicago sativa) in northwestern China.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojuan; Liu, Hongping; Li, Xiaoxia; Song, Yu; Chen, Li; Jin, Liang

2009-10-01

To discover the effect of environmental factors on pollinator visitation to flowering Medicago sativa, several field experiments were designed to examine the diurnal movement patterns of wild bee species in the Hexi Corridor of northwestern China. Our study results showed that Megachile abluta, M. spissula, and Xylocopa valga showed unimodal diurnal foraging behavior, whereas Andrena parvula and Anthophora melanognatha showed bimodal diurnal foraging behavior. Correlation analysis indicated that diurnal foraging activities of pollinators were significantly correlated with environmental factors. Correlations of foraging activities versus environmental factors for M. abluta, M. spissula, and X. valga best fit a linear model, whereas those of A. parvula and A. melanognatha best fit a parallel quadratic model. Results of this study indicated that solitary wild bees such as M. abluta, M. spissula, X. valga, A. parvula, and A. melanognatha are potential alfalfa pollinators in the Hexi Corridor. An understanding of the environmental factors that affect the behaviors of different wild bees foraging in alfalfa are basic to the utilization of solitary wild bees in a practical way for increased, or more consistent, pollination of alfalfa for seed production.

Review of PSR framework and development of a DPSIR model to assess greenhouse effect in Taiwan.

PubMed

Huang, Hui-Fen; Kuo, Jeff; Lo, Shang-Lien

2011-06-01

In dealing with the complex issues of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate change mitigation, many interrelated factors such as cost, level of technology development, supply and demand of energy, structure of industry, and expenditures on research and development exist. Using indicators to monitor environmental impacts and evaluate the efficacies of policies and regulations has been practiced for a long time, and it can serve as a useful tool for decision making and for comparison between different countries. Although numerous indicators have been developed for relevant subjects, integrated approaches that consider individual changes, dynamic interaction, and multi-dimensions of indicators are scarce. This paper aimed to develop a Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to assess the problems. This DPSIR model is mainly related to energy consumption, environmental impacts, and policy responses. The objectives of the paper were: (1) conduct a literature review on the indicators that have been used in GHG-related studies; (2) develop a DPSIR model that incorporates GHG-related indicators and evaluate their relationships using a cause-effect chain of GHG emission; and (3) develop a calculative method that can be used to explain the dynamic correlation among the interdependent indicators. Taiwan is a significant source of global GHG emissions. A case study, using the developed framework and Taiwan's actual data of the past two decades, was conducted. The results indicate that regulatory strategies for pollution control are inadequate in terms of ensuring environmental quality, and the nature does not have the capability to revert the impacts from the existing level of pollution.

A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

2009-12-01

In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic processes seem to dominate and determine the primary production and the white shrimp stock productivity as well.

Proposal of an environmental performance index to assess solid waste treatment technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goulart Coelho, Hosmanny Mauro, E-mail: hosmanny@hotmail.com; Lange, Lisete Celina; Coelho, Lineker Max Goulart

2012-07-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Proposal of a new concept in waste management: Cleaner Treatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Development of an index to assess quantitatively waste treatment technologies. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delphi Method was carried out so as to define environmental indicators. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental performance evaluation of waste-to-energy plants. - Abstract: Although the concern with sustainable development and environment protection has considerably grown in the last years it is noted that the majority of decision making models and tools are still either excessively tied to economic aspects or geared to the production process. Moreover, existing models focus on the priority steps of solid waste management, beyond wastemore » energy recovery and disposal. So, in order to help the lack of models and tools aiming at the waste treatment and final disposal, a new concept is proposed: the Cleaner Treatment, which is based on the Cleaner Production principles. This paper focuses on the development and validation of the Cleaner Treatment Index (CTI), to assess environmental performance of waste treatment technologies based on the Cleaner Treatment concept. The index is formed by aggregation (summation or product) of several indicators that consists in operational parameters. The weights of the indicator were established by Delphi Method and Brazilian Environmental Laws. In addition, sensitivity analyses were carried out comparing both aggregation methods. Finally, index validation was carried out by applying the CTI to 10 waste-to-energy plants data. From sensitivity analysis and validation results it is possible to infer that summation model is the most suitable aggregation method. For summation method, CTI results were superior to 0.5 (in a scale from 0 to 1) for most facilities evaluated. So, this study demonstrates that CTI is a simple and robust tool to assess and compare the environmental performance of different treatment plants being an excellent quantitative tool to support Cleaner Treatment implementation.« less

A Modeling Methodology to Support Evaluation Public Health Impacts on Air Pollution Reduction Programs

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental public health protection requires a good understanding of types and locations of pollutant emissions of health concern and their relationship to environmental public health indicators. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the methodologies, data sources, and tools...

INTEGRATING MODELS WITH STAKEHOLDER PREFERENCE OF WATER QUALITY INDICATORS: A CASE STUDY OF LAKE LANIER, GEORGIA, USA

EPA Science Inventory

One important aspect of Integrated Environmental Assessment is combining a scientific expertise and stakeholder concerns. Here, we propose a method to integrate stakeholder preferences, in particular preferences of stakeholders with differing environmental perspectives with a se...

Connecting the Dots: Linking Environmental Justice Indicators to Daily Dose Model Estimates

EPA Science Inventory

Many different quantitative techniques have been developed to either assess Environmental Justice (EJ) issues or estimate exposure and dose for risk assessment. However, very few approaches have been applied to link EJ factors to exposure dose estimate and identify potential impa...

Ecolabeled paper towels: consumer valuation and expenditure analysis.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Arun K; Blomquist, Glenn C

2009-01-01

Ecolabeled paper towels are manufactured using post-consumer recycled material and sold in markets using a recycle logo. Environmentally conscious consumers purchase these paper towels and thereby contribute to improving environmental quality. In this paper, we estimate the implicit value placed by consumers on ecolabeled paper towels using a hedonic price function and conduct an expenditure analysis using Heckman's selection model. Using the data set from the Internet-based grocery stores called as Peapod we find that some consumers recognize ecolabels on paper towels and place a substantial, positive price premium on them. The expenditure analysis indicates that for the preferred functional form, the demand for ecolabeled paper towels is inelastic for environmentally conscious consumers. The simulated results from the selection model indicate that a small subsidy for ecolabeled paper towels will not substantially change consumers' purchase decisions.

A novel fuzzy expert system to assess the sustainability of the viticulture at the wine-estate scale.

PubMed

Lamastra, L; Balderacchi, M; Di Guardo, A; Monchiero, M; Trevisan, M

2016-12-01

The wine industry is definitely committed in sustainability: the stakeholders' interest for the topic is constantly growing and a wide number of sustainability programs have been launched in recent years. Most of these programs are focusing on the environmental aspects as environmental sustainability indicators, greenhouse gases emissions and the use of Life Cycle Assessment methodology. Among the environmental indicators the carbon and the water footprint are often used. These indicators, while being useful to assess the sustainability performance of the winegrowing farms, do not take into account important aspects related to the agronomic management of the vineyard. To fill this gap a new indicator called "Vigneto" (Vineyard in Italian language) has been developed. "Vigneto" is a multidimensional indicator to evaluate the sustainability of management options adopted at field scale. It considers the main agronomic aspects, which can have an impact on the environment. These include (i) pest management, (ii) soil management (erosion and compaction), (iii) fertility management (soil organic matter management and fertilizer application), (iv) biodiversity management. Those aspects have been related by fuzzy logics and implemented in web GIS software. The application of the model allows obtaining a general judgment of the agronomic sustainability of the vineyard management: the judgment varies from "A" (excellent) to "E" (completely unsustainable). The produced model was validated and tested by four Italian wine estate. The model output reports that the tested wineries have different management strategies: producers manage vineyards in different ways, depending on the different geographical position. The main differences are related to the soil management and to the presence of natural areas different from vineyard. The developed model can be defined as an environmental decision support system that can be used by wine companies' technicians to define the vineyard practices sustainability performance and support them in the definition of more sustainable management practices. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Is there an environmentally optimal separate collection rate?

PubMed

Haupt, M; Waser, E; Würmli, J C; Hellweg, S

2018-04-20

Material recycling often leads to environmental benefits when compared to thermal treatments or landfilling and is therefore positioned in the waste hierarchy as the third priority after waste prevention and reuse. To assess the environmental impacts of recycling and the related substitution of primary material, linear steady-state models of physical flows are typically used. In reality, the environmental burdens of collection and recycling are likely to be a non-linear function of the collection rate. This short communication aims at raising awareness of the non-linear effects in separate collection systems and presents the first non-linear quantitative model for PET bottle recycling. The influence of collection rates on the material quality and the transport network is analyzed based on the data collected from industrial partners. The results highlight that in the present Swiss recycling system a very high collection rate close to 100% yields optimum environmental benefits with respect to global warming. The empirical data, however, provided indications for a decrease in the marginal environmental benefit of recycling. This can be seen as an indication that tipping points may exist for other recycling systems, in which the environmental benefits from substituting primary materials are less pronounced than they are for PET. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

2017-08-01

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Assessing the Application of a Geographic Presence-Only Model for Land Suitability Mapping

PubMed Central

Heumann, Benjamin W.; Walsh, Stephen J.; McDaniel, Phillip M.

2011-01-01

Recent advances in ecological modeling have focused on novel methods for characterizing the environment that use presence-only data and machine-learning algorithms to predict the likelihood of species occurrence. These novel methods may have great potential for land suitability applications in the developing world where detailed land cover information is often unavailable or incomplete. This paper assesses the adaptation and application of the presence-only geographic species distribution model, MaxEnt, for agricultural crop suitability mapping in a rural Thailand where lowland paddy rice and upland field crops predominant. To assess this modeling approach, three independent crop presence datasets were used including a social-demographic survey of farm households, a remote sensing classification of land use/land cover, and ground control points, used for geodetic and thematic reference that vary in their geographic distribution and sample size. Disparate environmental data were integrated to characterize environmental settings across Nang Rong District, a region of approximately 1,300 sq. km in size. Results indicate that the MaxEnt model is capable of modeling crop suitability for upland and lowland crops, including rice varieties, although model results varied between datasets due to the high sensitivity of the model to the distribution of observed crop locations in geographic and environmental space. Accuracy assessments indicate that model outcomes were influenced by the sample size and the distribution of sample points in geographic and environmental space. The need for further research into accuracy assessments of presence-only models lacking true absence data is discussed. We conclude that the Maxent model can provide good estimates of crop suitability, but many areas need to be carefully scrutinized including geographic distribution of input data and assessment methods to ensure realistic modeling results. PMID:21860606

A Socio-Economic and Environmental Information Needs Knowledge Base (SEE-IN KB) in Support of SDG Implementation and Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H. P.; Jules-Plag, S.

2016-12-01

The UN Agenda 2030 has seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be reach by 2030, which are detailed in 170 Targets. A monitioring framework of 240 SDG Indicators provides the metrics to measure progress towards these targets. The SDG Indicators are report cards for the progress towards the targets and a measure to assess potential impacts of policies and other means in support of SDG implementation. The Socio-Economic and Environmental Information Needs Knowledge Base (SEE-IN KB) collects information on objects such as user types, applications, observational requirements, a number of needs, societal goals and targets, indicators and indices, models, services, and datasets, as well as the interconnections between these objects, including links to Essential Variables (EVs). This enables gap analyses, prioritizations of Earth observations, and discovery of products and services meeting the information needs. "What if?" questions supports knowledge creation supporting the development of policies and activities to make progress towards the SDGs. Increasingly, user types, applications and requirements are linked to actual persons, models and datasets, respectively, and this allows both the social networking of providers and users and the execution of business processes. A core function of the SEE-IN KB is to facilitate the linkage of societal goals, targets, and indicators to EVs that need to be monitored in order to measure progress towards the targets. Applying a goal-based approach used to identify the EVs to the SDG Indicators revealed that some SDG Indicators require traditional Earth observations for quantification, while many of the EVs are related to the built environment. For many of the SDG Indicators, integration of socio-economic statistical data with environmental data, including in situ observations, is of importance. The goal-based approach was also applied to the SDG Targets, and this analysis showed that many of the Targets would benefit from additional indicators that are directly related to the environment. Many of the more environmentally focused indicators would require in situ data for quantification. A revision of the monitoring framework could take these findings into account and account for the linkage of the socio-economic and environmental aspect reflected in the SDGs.

Contrasting patterns of fine-scale herb layer species composition in temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chudomelová, Markéta; Zelený, David; Li, Ching-Feng

2017-04-01

Although being well described at the landscape level, patterns in species composition of forest herb layer are rarely studied at smaller scales. Here, we examined fine-scale environmental determinants and spatial structures of herb layer communities in thermophilous oak- and hornbeam dominated forests of the south-eastern part of the Czech Republic. Species composition of herb layer vegetation and environmental variables were recorded within a fixed grid of 2 × 2 m subplots regularly distributed within 1-ha quadrate plots in three forest stands. For each site, environmental models best explaining species composition were constructed using constrained ordination analysis. Spatial eigenvector mapping was used to model and account for spatial structures in community variation. Mean Ellenberg indicator values calculated for each subplot were used for ecological interpretation of spatially structured residual variation. The amount of variation explained by environmental and spatial models as well as the selection of variables with the best explanatory power differed among sites. As an important environmental factor, relative elevation was common to all three sites, while pH and canopy openness were shared by two sites. Both environmental and community variation was mostly coarse-scaled, as was the spatially structured portion of residual variation. When corrected for bias due to spatial autocorrelation, those environmental factors with already weak explanatory power lost their significance. Only a weak evidence of possibly omitted environmental predictor was found for autocorrelated residuals of site models using mean Ellenberg indicator values. Community structure was determined by different factors at different sites. The relative importance of environmental filtering vs. spatial processes was also site specific, implying that results of fine-scale studies tend to be shaped by local conditions. Contrary to expectations based on other studies, overall dominance of spatial processes at fine scale has not been detected. Ecologists should keep this in mind when making generalizations about community dynamics.

Prediction of genetic values of quantitative traits in plant breeding using pedigree and molecular markers.

PubMed

Crossa, José; Campos, Gustavo de Los; Pérez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; Burgueño, Juan; Araus, José Luis; Makumbi, Dan; Singh, Ravi P; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Yan, Jianbing; Arief, Vivi; Banziger, Marianne; Braun, Hans-Joachim

2010-10-01

The availability of dense molecular markers has made possible the use of genomic selection (GS) for plant breeding. However, the evaluation of models for GS in real plant populations is very limited. This article evaluates the performance of parametric and semiparametric models for GS using wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays) data in which different traits were measured in several environmental conditions. The findings, based on extensive cross-validations, indicate that models including marker information had higher predictive ability than pedigree-based models. In the wheat data set, and relative to a pedigree model, gains in predictive ability due to inclusion of markers ranged from 7.7 to 35.7%. Correlation between observed and predictive values in the maize data set achieved values up to 0.79. Estimates of marker effects were different across environmental conditions, indicating that genotype × environment interaction is an important component of genetic variability. These results indicate that GS in plant breeding can be an effective strategy for selecting among lines whose phenotypes have yet to be observed.

Quantitative assessments of municipal waste management systems: using different indicators to compare and rank programs in New York State.

PubMed

Greene, Krista L; Tonjes, David J

2014-04-01

The primary objective of waste management technologies and policies in the United States is to reduce the harmful environmental impacts of waste, particularly those relating to energy consumption and climate change. Performance indicators are frequently used to evaluate the environmental quality of municipal waste systems, as well as to compare and rank programs relative to each other in terms of environmental performance. However, there currently is no consensus on the best indicator for performing these environmental evaluations. The purpose of this study is to examine the common performance indicators used to assess the environmental benefits of municipal waste systems to determine if there is agreement between them regarding which system performs best environmentally. Focus is placed on how indicator selection influences comparisons between municipal waste management programs and subsequent system rankings. The waste systems of ten municipalities in the state of New York, USA, were evaluated using each common performance indicator and Spearman correlations were calculated to see if there was a significant association between system rank orderings. Analyses showed that rank orders of waste systems differ substantially when different indicators are used. Therefore, comparative system assessments based on indicators should be considered carefully, especially those intended to gauge environmental quality. Insight was also gained into specific factors which may lead to one system achieving higher rankings than another. However, despite the insufficiencies of indicators for comparative quality assessments, they do provide important information for waste managers and they can assist in evaluating internal programmatic performance and progress. To enhance these types of assessments, a framework for scoring indicators based on criteria that evaluate their utility and value for system evaluations was developed. This framework was used to construct an improved model for waste system performance assessments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-01-01

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks. PMID:29543706

County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

PubMed

Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

2017-08-01

Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental exposures. Cancer 2017;123:2901-8. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

PubMed

Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Fikse, W Freddy; Veerkamp, Roel F; Strandberg, Erling

2013-07-04

Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike's information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike's information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike's information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Personal and Environmental Influences on Students' Beliefs about Effective Study Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolen, Susan Bobbitt; Haladyna, Thomas M.

1990-01-01

A model of personal and environmental influences on students' valuing of two deep-processing strategies for studying expository texts is described. Questionnaire data from 281 high school science students indicated that students' task orientation and perceptions about teacher expectations were central to students' attitudes. (TJH)

THE SAN PEDRO RIVER, AN EXAMPLE OF AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM FOR TRANSBORDER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT USING GEOSPATIAL DATA AND PROCESS MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape compostion and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an effective and economical method for evaluating watershed conition related to disturbance from human an...

Mapping Environmental Suitability for Malaria Transmission, Greece

PubMed Central

Sudre, Bertrand; Rossi, Massimiliano; Van Bortel, Wim; Danis, Kostas; Baka, Agoritsa; Vakalis, Nikos

2013-01-01

During 2009–2012, Greece experienced a resurgence of domestic malaria transmission. To help guide malaria response efforts, we used spatial modeling to characterize environmental signatures of areas suitable for transmission. Nonlinear discriminant analysis indicated that sea-level altitude and land-surface temperature parameters are predictive in this regard. PMID:23697370

Environmental Uncertainty and Communication Network Complexity: A Cross-System, Cross-Cultural Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danowski, James

An infographic model is proposed to account for the operation of systems within their information environments. Infographics is a communication paradigm used to indicate the clustering of information processing variables in communication systems. Four propositions concerning environmental uncertainty and internal communication network complexity,…

Cover of coastal vegetation as an indicator of eutrophication along environmental gradients.

PubMed

Wikström, Sofia A; Carstensen, Jacob; Blomqvist, Mats; Krause-Jensen, Dorte

2016-01-01

Coastal vegetation communities are important for primary production, biodiversity, coastal protection, carbon and nutrient cycling which, in combination with their sensitivity to eutrophication, render them potential indicators of environmental status for environmental policies like the EU Water and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. We evaluated one potential indicator for coastal vegetation, the cumulative cover at depths where the vegetation is light limited, by investigating its response to eutrophication along gradients in natural conditions. We used a large data set covering the Swedish coastline, spanning broad gradients in nutrient level, water clarity, seabed substrate, physical exposure and climate in addition to a salinity gradient from 0.5 to 30.5. Macroalgal cover increased significantly along gradients of declining nutrient concentration and increasing water clarity when we had accounted for diver effects, spatio-temporal sampling variability, salinity gradients, wave exposure and latitude. The developed empirical model explained 79% of the variation in algal cover across 130 areas. Based on this, we identified macroalgal cover as a promising indicator across the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak. A parallel analysis of soft-substrate macrophytes similarly identified significant increases in cover with decreasing concentrations of total nitrogen and increasing salinity, but the resulting empirical model explained only 52% of the variation in cover, probably due to the spatially more variable nature of soft-substrate vegetation. The identified general responses of vegetation cover to gradients of eutrophication across wide ranges in environmental settings may be useful for monitoring and management of marine vegetation in areas with strong environmental gradients.

Genetic and environmental influences on female sexual orientation, childhood gender typicality and adult gender identity.

PubMed

Burri, Andrea; Cherkas, Lynn; Spector, Timothy; Rahman, Qazi

2011-01-01

Human sexual orientation is influenced by genetic and non-shared environmental factors as are two important psychological correlates--childhood gender typicality (CGT) and adult gender identity (AGI). However, researchers have been unable to resolve the genetic and non-genetic components that contribute to the covariation between these traits, particularly in women. Here we performed a multivariate genetic analysis in a large sample of British female twins (N = 4,426) who completed a questionnaire assessing sexual attraction, CGT and AGI. Univariate genetic models indicated modest genetic influences on sexual attraction (25%), AGI (11%) and CGT (31%). For the multivariate analyses, a common pathway model best fitted the data. This indicated that a single latent variable influenced by a genetic component and common non-shared environmental component explained the association between the three traits but there was substantial measurement error. These findings highlight common developmental factors affecting differences in sexual orientation.

Modeling the fate and transport of bacteria in agricultural and pasture lands using APEX

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is a whole farm to small watershed scale continuous simulation model developed for evaluating various land management strategies. The current version, APEX0806, does not have the modeling capacity for fecal indicator bacteria fate and trans...

Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea

In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biologicalmore » processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.« less

The association between physical environment and health: indicating the direction of effects using German panel data.

PubMed

Baar, Johanna; Romppel, Matthias; Igel, Ulrike; Brähler, Elmar; Grande, Gesine

2016-01-01

A growing body of research has identified an association between health and physical residential environmental characteristics. However, the direction of effects remains unclear, and further research is needed to determine whether the residential environment influences health. To specify the direction of the association between environmental disadvantage and self-reported health. Longitudinal data were obtained from the German Socioeconomic Panel and were examined at two points in time. Participants were grouped by relocation status assessed across a five-year period. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the effect of baseline environmental disadvantage on baseline health and on health five years later. In both groups, environmental disadvantage was cross-sectionally correlated with poor health. Only among people who did not relocate was baseline environmental disadvantage significantly related to health five years later in bivariate analyses. Results from the structural equation model found that environmental disadvantage was no longer significantly related to poor health five years later within the group of non-movers (β = -.02, p = .052). In addition, there was no effect in this direction within the group of movers (β = .02, p = .277). Our results suggest the existence of a weak contextual effect as group differences in longitudinal associations indicated the direction of ecological effects.

Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

PubMed

Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

2018-08-01

Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Methods Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. Results During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. Conclusions In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season. PMID:24927747

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

PubMed

Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

2014-06-13

Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season.

Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

2014-05-01

Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem assessment of a waterbody by reviewing applications from a complex coastal ecosystem, the Lagoon of Venice, and explore potential applications to other coastal and open sea system, up to the scale of the Mediterannean Sea.

An integrated environmental and health performance quantification model for pre-occupancy phase of buildings in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaodong, E-mail: eastdawn@tsinghua.edu.cn; Su, Shu, E-mail: sushuqh@163.com; Zhang, Zhihui, E-mail: zhzhg@tsinghua.edu.cn

To comprehensively pre-evaluate the damages to both the environment and human health due to construction activities in China, this paper presents an integrated building environmental and health performance (EHP) assessment model based on the Building Environmental Performance Analysis System (BEPAS) and the Building Health Impact Analysis System (BHIAS) models and offers a new inventory data estimation method. The new model follows the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework and the inventory analysis step involves bill of quantity (BOQ) data collection, consumption data formation, and environmental profile transformation. The consumption data are derived from engineering drawings and quotas to conduct the assessmentmore » before construction for pre-evaluation. The new model classifies building impacts into three safeguard areas: ecosystems, natural resources and human health. Thus, this model considers environmental impacts as well as damage to human wellbeing. The monetization approach, distance-to-target method and panel method are considered as optional weighting approaches. Finally, nine residential buildings of different structural types are taken as case studies to test the operability of the integrated model through application. The results indicate that the new model can effectively pre-evaluate building EHP and the structure type significantly affects the performance of residential buildings.« less

Random forests as cumulative effects models: A case study of lakes and rivers in Muskoka, Canada.

PubMed

Jones, F Chris; Plewes, Rachel; Murison, Lorna; MacDougall, Mark J; Sinclair, Sarah; Davies, Christie; Bailey, John L; Richardson, Murray; Gunn, John

2017-10-01

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) - a type of environmental appraisal - lacks effective methods for modeling cumulative effects, evaluating indicators of ecosystem condition, and exploring the likely outcomes of development scenarios. Random forests are an extension of classification and regression trees, which model response variables by recursive partitioning. Random forests were used to model a series of candidate ecological indicators that described lakes and rivers from a case study watershed (The Muskoka River Watershed, Canada). Suitability of the candidate indicators for use in cumulative effects assessment and watershed monitoring was assessed according to how well they could be predicted from natural habitat features and how sensitive they were to human land-use. The best models explained 75% of the variation in a multivariate descriptor of lake benthic-macroinvertebrate community structure, and 76% of the variation in the conductivity of river water. Similar results were obtained by cross-validation. Several candidate indicators detected a simulated doubling of urban land-use in their catchments, and a few were able to detect a simulated doubling of agricultural land-use. The paper demonstrates that random forests can be used to describe the combined and singular effects of multiple stressors and natural environmental factors, and furthermore, that random forests can be used to evaluate the performance of monitoring indicators. The numerical methods presented are applicable to any ecosystem and indicator type, and therefore represent a step forward for CEA. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of changes in genetic and environmental influences on weight and shape concern across adolescence.

PubMed

Wade, Tracey D; Hansell, Narelle K; Crosby, Ross D; Bryant-Waugh, Rachel; Treasure, Janet; Nixon, Reginald; Byrne, Susan; Martin, Nicholas G

2013-02-01

The goal of the current study was to examine whether genetic and environmental influences on an important risk factor for disordered eating, weight and shape concern, remained stable over adolescence. This stability was assessed in 2 ways: whether new sources of latent variance were introduced over development and whether the magnitude of variance contributing to the risk factor changed. We examined an 8-item WSC subscale derived from the Eating Disorder Examination (EDE) using telephone interviews with female adolescents. From 3 waves of data collected from female-female same-sex twin pairs from the Australian Twin Registry, a subset of the data (which included 351 pairs at Wave 1) was used to examine 3 age cohorts: 12 to 13, 13 to 15, and 14 to 16 years. The best-fitting model contained genetic and environmental influences, both shared and nonshared. Biometric model fitting indicated that nonshared environmental influences were largely specific to each age cohort, and results suggested that latent shared environmental and genetic influences that were influential at 12 to 13 years continued to contribute to subsequent age cohorts, with independent sources of both emerging at ages 13 to 15. The magnitude of all 3 latent influences could be constrained to be the same across adolescence. Ages 13 to 15 were indicated as a time of risk for the development of high levels of WSC, given that most specific environmental risk factors were significant at this time (e.g., peer teasing about weight, adverse life events), and indications of the emergence of new sources of latent genetic and environmental variance over this period. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Individual and Environmental Factors Influencing Adolescents’ Dietary Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Settings

PubMed Central

Verstraeten, Roosmarijn; Leroy, Jef L.; Pieniak, Zuzanna; Ochoa-Avilès, Angélica; Holdsworth, Michelle; Verbeke, Wim; Maes, Lea; Kolsteren, Patrick

2016-01-01

Objective Given the public health importance of improving dietary behavior in chronic disease prevention in low- and middle-income countries it is crucial to understand the factors influencing dietary behavior in these settings. This study tested the validity of a conceptual framework linking individual and environmental factors to dietary behavior among Ecuadorian adolescents aged 10–16 years. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 784 school-going Ecuadorian adolescents in urban and rural Southern Ecuador. Participants provided data on socio-economic status, anthropometry, dietary behavior and its determining factors. The relationships between individual (perceived benefits and barriers, self-efficacy, habit strength, and a better understanding of healthy food) and environmental factors (physical environment: accessibility to healthy food; social environment: parental permissiveness and school support), and their association with key components of dietary behavior (fruit and vegetables, sugary drinks, breakfast, and unhealthy snack intake) were assessed using structural equation modeling. Results The conceptual model performed well for each component of eating behavior, indicating acceptable goodness-of-fit for both the measurement and structural models. Models for vegetable intake and unhealthy snacking showed significant and direct effects of individual factors (perceived benefits). For breakfast and sugary drink consumption, there was a direct and positive association with socio-environmental factors (school support and parental permissiveness). Access to healthy food was associated indirectly with all eating behaviors (except for sugary drink intake) and this effect operated through socio-environmental (parental permissiveness and school support) and individual factors (perceived benefits). Conclusion Our study demonstrated that key components of adolescents’ dietary behaviors are influenced by a complex interplay of individual and environmental factors. The findings indicate that the influence of these factors varied by type of dietary behavior. PMID:27447169

Individual and Environmental Factors Influencing Adolescents' Dietary Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Settings.

PubMed

Verstraeten, Roosmarijn; Leroy, Jef L; Pieniak, Zuzanna; Ochoa-Avilès, Angélica; Holdsworth, Michelle; Verbeke, Wim; Maes, Lea; Kolsteren, Patrick

2016-01-01

Given the public health importance of improving dietary behavior in chronic disease prevention in low- and middle-income countries it is crucial to understand the factors influencing dietary behavior in these settings. This study tested the validity of a conceptual framework linking individual and environmental factors to dietary behavior among Ecuadorian adolescents aged 10-16 years. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 784 school-going Ecuadorian adolescents in urban and rural Southern Ecuador. Participants provided data on socio-economic status, anthropometry, dietary behavior and its determining factors. The relationships between individual (perceived benefits and barriers, self-efficacy, habit strength, and a better understanding of healthy food) and environmental factors (physical environment: accessibility to healthy food; social environment: parental permissiveness and school support), and their association with key components of dietary behavior (fruit and vegetables, sugary drinks, breakfast, and unhealthy snack intake) were assessed using structural equation modeling. The conceptual model performed well for each component of eating behavior, indicating acceptable goodness-of-fit for both the measurement and structural models. Models for vegetable intake and unhealthy snacking showed significant and direct effects of individual factors (perceived benefits). For breakfast and sugary drink consumption, there was a direct and positive association with socio-environmental factors (school support and parental permissiveness). Access to healthy food was associated indirectly with all eating behaviors (except for sugary drink intake) and this effect operated through socio-environmental (parental permissiveness and school support) and individual factors (perceived benefits). Our study demonstrated that key components of adolescents' dietary behaviors are influenced by a complex interplay of individual and environmental factors. The findings indicate that the influence of these factors varied by type of dietary behavior.

The Contribution of Scenic Beauty Indicators in Estimating Environmental Welfare Measures: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fanariotu, Ioanna; Skuras, Dimitris

2004-01-01

Aesthetic indicators of landscapes, expressed as individual scenic beauty estimates, may be used as proxies of individuals' specific aesthetic values, and improve the properties of welfare estimates produced by contingent valuation models. This work presents results from an interdisciplinary study where forest scenic beauty indicators are utilized…

Environmental characteristics comparison of Li-ion batteries and Ni-MH batteries under the uncertainty of cycle performance.

PubMed

Yu, Yajuan; Wang, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Huang, Kai; Wang, Lijing; Bao, Liying; Wu, Feng

2012-08-30

An environmental impact assessment model for secondary batteries under uncertainty is proposed, which is a combination of the life cycle assessment (LCA), Eco-indicator 99 system and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The LCA can describe the environmental impact mechanism of secondary batteries, whereas the cycle performance was simulated through MCS. The composite LCA-MCS model was then carried out to estimate the environmental impact of two kinds of experimental batteries. Under this kind of standard assessment system, a comparison between different batteries could be accomplished. The following results were found: (1) among the two selected batteries, the environmental impact of the Li-ion battery is lower than the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery, especially with regards to resource consumption and (2) the lithium ion (Li-ion) battery is less sensitive to cycle uncertainty, its environmental impact fluctuations are small when compared with the selected Ni-MH battery and it is more environmentally friendly. The assessment methodology and model proposed in this paper can also be used for any other secondary batteries and they can be helpful in the development of environmentally friendly secondary batteries. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A framework for assessing discretionary corporate performance towards the environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labatt, Sonia

1991-03-01

This article reviews the existing models of corporate social responsiveness and develops a theoretical framework with which to examine corporations' discretionary performance with respect to one social issue, that of the environment. Discretionary indicators of corporate response to environmental issues are developed and tested within this framework. Twelve companies from five different sectors were selected for the survey, based on prior knowledge of their commitment to environmental concerns. Primary data was collected from personal interviews, and secondary data was obtained from company documents, annual reports, and other forms of publically disclosed information. Empirical results varied, but certain voluntary indicators, such as composition of the board of directors, the environmental affairs function, community support, and the annual report are considered to provide strong indications of discretionary corporate performance. Philanthropy and company products proved to be less satisfactory indicators of corporate commitment to the environment. The aggregated results revealed a correlation between the final rankings of firms' discretionary environmental performance and whether those companies are process or product oriented. Linkages between discretionary elements and those of economic and legal requirements were not explored.

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

PubMed Central

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

PubMed

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116

The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application ofmore » LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.« less

Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

PubMed Central

August, Laura Meehan; Faust, John B.; Cushing, Lara; Zeise, Lauren; Alexeeff, George V.

2012-01-01

Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure. PMID:23202671

Estimation of phosphorus loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region using the APEX model: a first step to evaluating phosphorus indices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose. Phosphorus (P) indices are a key tool to minimize P loss from agricultural fields but there is insufficient water quality data to fully test them. Our goal is to use the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender Model (APEX), calibrated with existing edge-of-field runoff data, to refine P...

Spatial Statistical and Modeling Strategy for Inventorying and Monitoring Ecosystem Resources at Multiple Scales and Resolution Levels

Treesearch

Robin M. Reich; C. Aguirre-Bravo; M.S. Williams

2006-01-01

A statistical strategy for spatial estimation and modeling of natural and environmental resource variables and indicators is presented. This strategy is part of an inventory and monitoring pilot study that is being carried out in the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. Fine spatial resolution estimates of key variables and indicators are outputs that will allow the...

Measuring environmental efficiency of agricultural water use: a Luenberger environmental indicator.

PubMed

Azad, Md A S; Ancev, Tihomir

2014-12-01

Irrigated agriculture creates substantial environmental pressures by withdrawing large quantities of water, leaving rivers and wetlands empty and unable to support the valuable ecosystems that depend on the water resource. The key challenge facing society is that of balancing water extractions for agricultural production and other uses with provision of appropriate environmental flow to maintain healthy rivers and wetlands. Measuring tradeoffs between economic gain of water use in agriculture and its environmental pressures can contribute to constructing policy instruments for improved water resource management. The aim of this paper is to develop a modelling framework to measure these tradeoffs. Using a new approach - Luenberger environmental indicator - the study derives environmental efficiency scores for various types of irrigation enterprises across seventeen natural resource management regions within the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Findings show that there is a substantial variation in environmental performance of irrigation enterprises across the regions. Some enterprises were found to be relatively environmentally efficient in some regions, but they were not efficient in others. The environmental efficiency scores could be used as a guideline for formulating regional policy and strategy to achieve sustainable water use in the agricultural sector. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of airborne lidar data to improve plant species richness and diversity monitoring in lowland and mountain forests

PubMed Central

Durrieu, Sylvie; Gosselin, Frédéric; Herpigny, Basile

2017-01-01

We explored the potential of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data to improve Bayesian models linking biodiversity indicators of the understory vegetation to environmental factors. Biodiversity was studied at plot level and models were built to investigate species abundance for the most abundant plants found on each study site, and for ecological group richness based on light preference. The usual abiotic explanatory factors related to climate, topography and soil properties were used in the models. ALS data, available for two contrasting study sites, were used to provide biotic factors related to forest structure, which was assumed to be a key driver of understory biodiversity. Several ALS variables were found to have significant effects on biodiversity indicators. However, the responses of biodiversity indicators to forest structure variables, as revealed by the Bayesian model outputs, were shown to be dependent on the abiotic environmental conditions characterizing the study areas. Lower responses were observed on the lowland site than on the mountainous site. In the latter, shade-tolerant and heliophilous species richness was impacted by vegetation structure indicators linked to light penetration through the canopy. However, to reveal the full effects of forest structure on biodiversity indicators, forest structure would need to be measured over much wider areas than the plot we assessed. It seems obvious that the forest structure surrounding the field plots can impact biodiversity indicators measured at plot level. Various scales were found to be relevant depending on: the biodiversity indicators that were modelled, and the ALS variable. Finally, our results underline the utility of lidar data in abundance and richness models to characterize forest structure with variables that are difficult to measure in the field, either due to their nature or to the size of the area they relate to. PMID:28902920

Loss of competition in the outside host environment generates outbreaks of environmental opportunist pathogens.

PubMed

Anttila, Jani; Ruokolainen, Lasse; Kaitala, Veijo; Laakso, Jouni

2013-01-01

Environmentally transmitted pathogens face ecological interactions (e.g., competition, predation, parasitism) in the outside-host environment and host immune system during infection. Despite the ubiquitousness of environmental opportunist pathogens, traditional epidemiology focuses on obligatory pathogens incapable of environmental growth. Here we ask how competitive interactions in the outside-host environment affect the dynamics of an opportunist pathogen. We present a model coupling the classical SI and Lotka-Volterra competition models. In this model we compare a linear infectivity response and a sigmoidal infectivity response. An important assumption is that pathogen virulence is traded off with competitive ability in the environment. Removing this trade-off easily results in host extinction. The sigmoidal response is associated with catastrophic appearances of disease outbreaks when outside-host species richness, or overall competition pressure, decreases. This indicates that alleviating outside-host competition with antibacterial substances that also target the competitors can have unexpected outcomes by providing benefits for opportunist pathogens. These findings may help in developing alternative ways of controlling environmental opportunist pathogens.

A model for the perception of environmental sound based on notice-events.

PubMed

De Coensel, Bert; Botteldooren, Dick; De Muer, Tom; Berglund, Birgitta; Nilsson, Mats E; Lercher, Peter

2009-08-01

An approach is proposed to shed light on the mechanisms underlying human perception of environmental sound that intrudes in everyday living. Most research on exposure-effect relationships aims at relating overall effects to overall exposure indicators in an epidemiological fashion, without including available knowledge on the possible underlying mechanisms. Here, it is proposed to start from available knowledge on audition and perception to construct a computational framework for the effect of environmental sound on individuals. Obviously, at the individual level additional mechanisms (inter-sensory, attentional, cognitive, emotional) play a role in the perception of environmental sound. As a first step, current knowledge is made explicit by building a model mimicking some aspects of human auditory perception. This model is grounded in the hypothesis that long-term perception of environmental sound is determined primarily by short notice-events. The applicability of the notice-event model is illustrated by simulating a synthetic population exposed to typical Flemish environmental noise. From these simulation results, it is demonstrated that the notice-event model is able to mimic the differences between the annoyance caused by road traffic noise exposure and railway traffic noise exposure that are also observed empirically in other studies and thus could provide an explanation for these differences.

Joint Conference on Sensing of Environmental Pollutants, 4th, New Orleans, La., November 6-11, 1977, Proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Papers are presented on such topics as environmental chemistry, the effects of sulfur compounds on air quality, the prediction and monitoring of biological effects caused by environmental pollutants, environmental indicators, the satellite remote sensing of air pollution, weather and climate modification by pollution, and the monitoring and assessment of radioactive pollutants. Consideration is also given to empirical and quantitative modeling of air quality, disposal of hazardous and nontoxic materials, sensing and assessment of water quality, pollution source monitoring, and assessment of some environmental impacts of fossil and nuclear fuels.

Urban tree-planting programs — A model for encouraging environmentally protective behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summit, Joshua; Sommer, Robert

Efforts to increase environmentally sound behaviors and practices have in the past often focussed on consciousness-raising and attitude change. Research indicates that such efforts are less effective than interventions designed to make environmentally sound behaviors easier to engage in, or to make personal advantages resulting from such behaviors more clear to individuals. Four nonprofit tree planting organizations were studied as examples of successful environmental interventions. From these studies, as well as a review of the literature, several principles underlying successful behavioral interventions are identified. Implications of these principles for future environmental programs are discussed.

A systems approach to modeling Community-Based Environmental Monitoring: a case of participatory water quality monitoring in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Burgos, Ana; Páez, Rosaura; Carmona, Estela; Rivas, Hilda

2013-12-01

Community-Based Environmental Monitoring (CBM) is a social practice that makes a valuable contribution to environmental management and construction of active societies for sustainable future. However, its documentation and analysis show deficiencies that hinder contrast and comparison of processes and effects. Based on systems approach, this article presents a model of CBM to orient assessment of programs, with heuristic or practical goals. In a focal level, the model comprises three components, the social subject, the object of monitoring, and the means of action, and five processes, data management, social learning, assimilation/decision making, direct action, and linking. Emergent properties were also identified in the focal and suprafocal levels considering community self-organization, response capacity, and autonomy for environmental management. The model was applied to the assessment of a CBM program of water quality implemented in rural areas in Mexico. Attributes and variables (indicators) for components, processes, and emergent properties were selected to measure changes that emerged since the program implementation. The assessment of the first 3 years (2010-2012) detected changes that indicated movement towards the expected results, but it revealed also the need to adjust the intervention strategy and procedures. Components and processes of the model reflected relevant aspects of the CBM in real world. The component called means of action as a key element to transit "from the data to the action." The CBM model offered a conceptual framework with advantages to understand CBM as a socioecological event and to strengthen its implementation under different conditions and contexts.

Environmental Persistence Influences Infection Dynamics for a Butterfly Pathogen

PubMed Central

Altizer, Sonia; Williams, Mary-Kate; Hall, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Many pathogens, including those infecting insects, are transmitted via dormant stages shed into the environment, where they must persist until encountering a susceptible host. Understanding how abiotic conditions influence environmental persistence and how these factors influence pathogen spread are crucial for predicting patterns of infection risk. Here, we explored the consequences of environmental transmission for infection dynamics of a debilitating protozoan parasite (Ophryocystis elektroscirrha) that infects monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus). We first conducted an experiment to observe the persistence of protozoan spores exposed to natural conditions. Experimental results showed that, contrary to our expectations, pathogen doses maintained high infectivity even after 16 days in the environment, although pathogens did yield infections with lower parasite loads after environmental exposure. Because pathogen longevity exceeded the time span of our experiment, we developed a mechanistic model to better explore environmental persistence for this host-pathogen system. Model analysis showed that, in general, longer spore persistence led to higher infection prevalence and slightly smaller monarch population sizes. The model indicated that typical parasite doses shed onto milkweed plants must remain viable for a minimum of 3 weeks for prevalence to increase during the summer-breeding season, and for 11 weeks or longer to match levels of infection commonly reported from the wild, assuming moderate values for parasite shedding rate. Our findings showed that transmission stages of this butterfly pathogen are long-lived and indicated that this is a necessary condition for the protozoan to persist in local monarch populations. This study provides a modeling framework for future work examining the dynamics of an ecologically important pathogen in an iconic insect. PMID:28099501

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring. PMID:23827014

A model to environmental monitoring based on glutathione-S-transferase activity and branchial lesions in catfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neta, Raimunda Nonata Fortes Carvalho; Torres, Audalio Rebelo

2017-11-01

In this work, we validate the glutathione-S-transferase and branchial lesions as biomarkers in catfish Sciades herzbergii to obtain a predictive model of the environmental impact effects in a harbor of Brazil. The catfish were sampled from a port known to be contaminated with heavy metals and organic compounds and from a natural reserve in São Marcos Bay, Maranhão. Two biomarkers, hepatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) activity and branchial lesions were analyzed. The values for GST activity were modeled with the occurrence of branchial lesions by fitting a third order polynomial. Results from the mathematical model indicate that GST activity has a strong polynomial relationship with the occurrence of branchial lesions in both the wet and the dry seasons, but only at the polluted port site. Our mathematic model indicates that when the GST ceases to act, serious branchial lesions are observed in the catfish of the contaminated port area.

Above-ground biomass of mangrove species. I. Analysis of models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Mário Luiz Gomes; Schaeffer-Novelli, Yara

2005-10-01

This study analyzes the above-ground biomass of Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa located in the mangroves of Bertioga (SP) and Guaratiba (RJ), Southeast Brazil. Its purpose is to determine the best regression model to estimate the total above-ground biomass and compartment (leaves, reproductive parts, twigs, branches, trunk and prop roots) biomass, indirectly. To do this, we used structural measurements such as height, diameter at breast-height (DBH), and crown area. A combination of regression types with several compositions of independent variables generated 2.272 models that were later tested. Subsequent analysis of the models indicated that the biomass of reproductive parts, branches, and prop roots yielded great variability, probably because of environmental factors and seasonality (in the case of reproductive parts). It also indicated the superiority of multiple regression to estimate above-ground biomass as it allows researchers to consider several aspects that affect above-ground biomass, specially the influence of environmental factors. This fact has been attested to the models that estimated the biomass of crown compartments.

Environmental factors associated with long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and Suisun Bay, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehman, P.W.

Long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration were predicted from environmental variables using Box-Jenkins transfer function models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay. The indication that oceanic phytoplankton biomass for the California regions is associated with climatic phenomena produced by El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was one of several factors used to standardize the dataset. Data used for the analyses were collected continuously on a semimonthly or monthly basis over the 17-yr period between 1971 and 1987. Groups of highly correlated environmental variables were summarized along three environmental axes using principal component analysis. The first environmentalmore » axis summarized river flow and specific conductance. The second environmental axis summarized water transparency and the third environmental axis summarized air and water temperature. Chlorophyll concentration was significantly cross-correlated with environmental axes and individual environmental variables. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll concentration over time were characterized by lag responses and described between 41% and 51% of the data variation. Significant cross-correlations between environmental axes and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production. 50 refs., 5 figs.« less

Hydrodynamics and water quality models applied to Sepetiba Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, Cynara de L. da N.; Rosman, Paulo C. C.; Ferreira, Aldo Pacheco; Carlos do Nascimento Monteiro, Teófilo

2006-10-01

A coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model is used to simulate the pollution in Sepetiba Bay due to sewage effluent. Sepetiba Bay has a complicated geometry and bottom topography, and is located on the Brazilian coast near Rio de Janeiro. In the simulation, the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) are used as indicators for the presence of organic matter in the body of water, and as parameters for evaluating the environmental pollution of the eastern part of Sepetiba Bay. Effluent sources in the model are taken from DO and BOD field measurements. The simulation results are consistent with field observations and demonstrate that the model has been correctly calibrated. The model is suitable for evaluating the environmental impact of sewage effluent on Sepetiba Bay from river inflows, assessing the feasibility of different treatment schemes, and developing specific monitoring activities. This approach has general applicability for environmental assessment of complicated coastal bays.

Controlling for exogenous environmental variables when using data envelopment analysis for regional environmental assessments.

PubMed

Macpherson, Alexander J; Principe, Peter P; Shao, Yang

2013-04-15

Researchers are increasingly using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the efficiency of environmental policies and resource allocations. An assumption of the basic DEA model is that decisionmakers operate within homogeneous environments. But, this assumption is not valid when environmental performance is influenced by variables beyond managerial control. Understanding the influence of these variables is important to distinguish between characterizing environmental conditions and identifying opportunities to improve environmental performance. While environmental assessments often focus on characterizing conditions, the point of using DEA is to identify opportunities to improve environmental performance and thereby prevent (or rectify) an inefficient allocation of resources. We examine the role of exogenous variables such as climate, hydrology, and topography in producing environmental impacts such as deposition, runoff, invasive species, and forest fragmentation within the United States Mid-Atlantic region. We apply a four-stage procedure to adjust environmental impacts in a DEA model that seeks to minimize environmental impacts while obtaining given levels of socioeconomic outcomes. The approach creates a performance index that bundles multiple indicators while adjusting for variables that are outside management control, offering numerous advantages for environmental assessment. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting the risk of toxic blooms of golden alga from cell abundance and environmental covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Reynaldo; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Denny, Shawn

2016-01-01

Golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) is a toxic haptophyte that has caused considerable ecological damage to marine and inland aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Studies focused primarily on laboratory cultures have indicated that toxicity is poorly correlated with the abundance of golden alga cells. This relationship, however, has not been rigorously evaluated in the field where environmental conditions are much different. The ability to predict toxicity using readily measured environmental variables and golden alga abundance would allow managers rapid assessments of ichthyotoxicity potential without laboratory bioassay confirmation, which requires additional resources to accomplish. To assess the potential utility of these relationships, several a priori models relating lethal levels of golden alga ichthyotoxicity to golden alga abundance and environmental covariates were constructed. Model parameters were estimated using archived data from four river basins in Texas and New Mexico (Colorado, Brazos, Red, Pecos). Model predictive ability was quantified using cross-validation, sensitivity, and specificity, and the relative ranking of environmental covariate models was determined by Akaike Information Criterion values and Akaike weights. Overall, abundance was a generally good predictor of ichthyotoxicity as cross validation of golden alga abundance-only models ranged from ∼ 80% to ∼ 90% (leave-one-out cross-validation). Environmental covariates improved predictions, especially the ability to predict lethally toxic events (i.e., increased sensitivity), and top-ranked environmental covariate models differed among the four basins. These associations may be useful for monitoring as well as understanding the abiotic factors that influence toxicity during blooms.

An analysis on the environmental Kuznets curve of Chengdu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zijian; Peng, Yue; Zhao, Yue

2017-12-01

In this paper based on the environmental and economic data of Chengdu from 2005 to 2014, the measurement models were established to analyze 3 kinds of environmental flow indicators and 4 kinds of environmental stock indicators to obtain their EKC evolution trajectories and characters. The results show that the relationship curve between the discharge of SO2 from industry and the GDP per capita is a positive U shape, just as the curve between discharge of COD from industry and the GDP per person. The relationship curve between the dust discharge from industry and the GDP per capita is an inverted N shape. In the central of the urban the relationship curve between the concentration of SO2 in the air and the GDP per person is a positive U shape. The relationship curves between the concentration of NO2 in the air and the GDP per person, between the concentration of the particulate matters and the GDP per person, and between the concentration of the fallen dusts and the GDP per person are fluctuating. So the EKC curves of the 7 kinds of environmental indicators are not accord with inverted U shape feature. In the development of this urban the environmental problems can’t be resolved only by economic growth. The discharge of industrial pollutants should be controlled to improve the atmospheric environmental quality and reduce the environmental risks.

The Effects of Recreation Experience, Environmental Attitude, and Biospheric Value on the Environmentally Responsible Behavior of Nature-Based Tourists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tsung Hung; Jan, Fen-Hauh

2015-07-01

The scientific understanding of the recreation experience and the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists is limited. This study examines the relationship among the recreation experience, environmental attitude, biospheric value, and the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists in Taomi, Liuqiu Island, and Aowanda and Najenshan in Taiwan. A total of 1342 usable questionnaires were collected for this study. The empirical results indicate that the recreation experience influences biospheric value and environmental attitude; subsequently, it then indirectly influences the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists. Our theoretical behavioral model elucidates previously proposed but unexamined behavioral models among nature-based tourists, and it offers a theoretical framework for researchers, decision makers, managers, and tourists in the field of nature-based tourism. We conclude that when an individual participates in nature-based tourism as described here, these recreation experiences strengthen their environmental attitude and biospheric value, and consequently increase their engagement in both general and site-specific environmentally responsible behaviors.

The effects of recreation experience, environmental attitude, and biospheric value on the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists.

PubMed

Lee, Tsung Hung; Jan, Fen-Hauh

2015-07-01

The scientific understanding of the recreation experience and the environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists is limited. This study examines the relationship among the recreation experience, environmental attitude, biospheric value, and the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists in Taomi, Liuqiu Island, and Aowanda and Najenshan in Taiwan. A total of 1342 usable questionnaires were collected for this study. The empirical results indicate that the recreation experience influences biospheric value and environmental attitude; subsequently, it then indirectly influences the general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists. Our theoretical behavioral model elucidates previously proposed but unexamined behavioral models among nature-based tourists, and it offers a theoretical framework for researchers, decision makers, managers, and tourists in the field of nature-based tourism. We conclude that when an individual participates in nature-based tourism as described here, these recreation experiences strengthen their environmental attitude and biospheric value, and consequently increase their engagement in both general and site-specific environmentally responsible behaviors.

DEVELOPING SITE-SPECIFIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING BACTERIA LEVELS AT COASTAL BEACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S.Beaches Environmental Assessment and Coastal Health Act of 2000 authorizes studies of pathogen indicators in coastal recreation waters that develop appropriate, accurate, expeditious, and cost-effective methods (including predictive models) for quantifying pathogens in co...

Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE.

PubMed

Kirkeby, Janus T; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Bhander, Gurbakash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; Christensen, Thomas H

2007-01-01

A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion.

National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators: a supporting technical document for the 1999 RPA assessment.

Treesearch

John Hof; Curtis Flather; Tony Baltic; Stephen Davies

1999-01-01

The 1999 forest and rangeland condition indicator model is a set of independent econometric production functions for environmental outputs (measured with condition indicators) at the national scale. This report documents the development of the database and the statistical estimation required by this particular production structure with emphasis on two special...

Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

2013-01-01

At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-12-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Indicators for the Evaluation of Environmental Education, Interpretation and Information in Protected Areas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sureda, Jaume; Oliver, Miquel F.; Castells, Margalida

2004-01-01

By petition of the regional government of the Balearic Islands (Spain), the authors of this article evaluated activities of environmental education, interpretation, and information carried out in the most important protected areas of these islands. The following is a presentation of the model of the evaluation that was developed. Based on the…

EMI Modeling for UXO Detection and Discrimination Underwater

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

detection and discrimination underwater,? submitted to the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) in response to the...phenomena from highly conducting and permeable metallic objects in underwater environments, and 3) investigate the impact of the electromagnetic parameters of...to the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP). The publication of this report does not indicate

Environmental niche models for riverine desert fishes and their similarity according to phylogeny and functionality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Environmental filtering and competitive exclusion are hypotheses frequently invoked in explaining species' environmental niches (i.e., geographic distributions). A key assumption in both hypotheses is that the functional niche (i.e., species traits) governs the environmental niche, but few studies have rigorously evaluated this assumption. Furthermore, phylogeny could be associated with these hypotheses if it is predictive of functional niche similarity via phylogenetic signal or convergent evolution, or of environmental niche similarity through phylogenetic attraction or repulsion. The objectives of this study were to investigate relationships between environmental niches, functional niches, and phylogenies of fishes of the Upper (UCRB) and Lower (LCRB) Colorado River Basins of southwestern North America. We predicted that functionally similar species would have similar environmental niches (i.e., environmental filtering) and that closely related species would be functionally similar (i.e., phylogenetic signal) and possess similar environmental niches (i.e., phylogenetic attraction). Environmental niches were quantified using environmental niche modeling, and functional similarity was determined using functional trait data. Nonnatives in the UCRB provided the only support for environmental filtering, which resulted from several warmwater nonnatives having dam number as a common predictor of their distributions, whereas several cool- and coldwater nonnatives shared mean annual air temperature as an important distributional predictor. Phylogenetic signal was supported for both natives and nonnatives in both basins. Lastly, phylogenetic attraction was only supported for native fishes in the LCRB and for nonnative fishes in the UCRB. Our results indicated that functional similarity was heavily influenced by evolutionary history, but that phylogenetic relationships and functional traits may not always predict the environmental distribution of species. However, the similarity of environmental niches among warmwater centrarchids, ictalurids, fundulids, and poeciliids in the UCRB indicated that dam removals could influence the distribution of these nonnatives simultaneously, thus providing greater conservation benefits. However, this same management strategy would have more limited effects on nonnative salmonids, catostomids, and percids with colder temperature preferences, thus necessitating other management strategies to control these species.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

PubMed

Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

PubMed Central

Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004–2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper. PMID:29473007

25th ANNUAL NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The model results may help landscape ecologists produce indicators of surface water condition, such that unique combinations of these indicators can be used to infer the potential cause(s) and origin(s) of non-point pollution, which may lead to eutrophication in aquatic ecosystem...

Global potential distribution of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Luana A.; Mendes, Mayara F.; Krüger, Alexandra P.; Blauth, Monica L.; Gottschalk, Marco S.

2017-01-01

Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) is a species native to Western Asia that is able to pierce intact fruit during egg laying, causing it to be considered a fruit crop pest in many countries. Drosophila suzukii have a rapid expansion worldwide; occurrences were recorded in North America and Europe in 2008, and South America in 2013. Due to this rapid expansion, we modeled the potential distribution of this species using the Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) using 407 sites with known occurrences worldwide and 11 predictor variables. After 1000 replicates, the value of the average area under the curve (AUC) of the model predictions with 1000 replicates was 0.97 for MaxEnt and 0.87 for GARP, indicating that both models had optimal performances. The environmental variables that most influenced the prediction of the MaxEnt model were the annual mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual precipitation. The models indicated high environmental suitability, mainly in temperate and subtropical areas in the continents of Asia, Europe and North and South America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential for further invasions of the African and Australian continents is predicted due to the environmental suitability of these areas for this species. PMID:28323903

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, David L.; Hessenflow, Mark L.; Wein, Anne

2005-01-01

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Additive interaction between heterogeneous environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND Environmental exposures often occur in tandem; however, epidemiological research often focuses on singular exposures. Statistical interactions among broad, well-characterized environmental domains have not yet been evaluated in association with health. We address this gap by conducting a county-level cross-sectional analysis of interactions between Environmental Quality Index (EQI) domain indices on preterm birth in the Unites States from 2000-2005.METHODS: The EQI, a county-level index constructed for the 2000-2005 time period, was constructed from five domain-specific indices (air, water, land, built and sociodemographic) using principal component analyses. County-level preterm birth rates (n=3141) were estimated using live births from the National Center for Health Statistics. Linear regression was used to estimate prevalence differences (PD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing worse environmental quality to the better quality for each model for a) each individual domain main effect b) the interaction contrast and c) the two main effects plus interaction effect (i.e. the “net effect”) to show departure from additive interaction for the all U.S counties. Analyses were also performed for subgroupings by four urban/rural strata. RESULTS: We found the suggestion of antagonistic interactions but no synergism, along with several purely additive (i.e., no interaction) associations. In the non-stratified model, we observed antagonistic interac

Geospatial Modeling of Watershed Quality as an Indicator for Environmental Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer, R.

2016-12-01

The impact of urbanization of rural Tennessee counties on environmental quality and human health and wellbeing has not been well studied, especially in the context of water quality. Between 2015 and 2025, Williamson County, TN is projected to see the strongest rate of population growth in the region, expanding by 33.7 percent. Water quality directly affects the condition of soils, vegetation, and other life forms that depend on water for survival, and therefore is a valid indicator of environmental health. Current reliable data is available on less than half (47%) of waterways in Tennessee. GIS is applied to model the impact of urbanization on rural communities within the Mill Creek watershed in Williamson County, Tennessee. Water quality measurements are integrated with data identifying urbanization and other land development influences assessed over a previous decades in order to identify influences of environmental change impacts on the watershed. The study examines the threat of urbanization to soils, vegetation and other related natural resources as well as the distance of farm areas, pasture grazing, cattle access and manure runoff, construction and landscaping to collection systems leading into the watershed. Combining spatial analysis with water quality interpretation helped to identify and display potential causes and sources of Mill Creek Watershed pollution as well as vulnerable locations susceptible to risk of declining environmental health.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2016-12-01

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Laying the foundation for quantifying regional exposure to social phenomena: considering the case of legalized gambling as a public health toxin.

PubMed

Shaffer, Howard J; LaBrie, Richard A; LaPlante, Debi

2004-03-01

Exposure and adaptation models provide competing perspectives of the environmental influence on the development of addictive disorders. Exposure theory suggests that the presence of environmental toxins (e.g., casinos) increases the likelihood of related disease (e.g., gambling-related disorders). Adaptation theory proposes that new environmental toxins initially increase adverse reactions; subsequently, symptoms diminish as individuals adapt to such toxins and acquire resistance. The authors describe a new public health regional exposure model (REM) that provides a tool to gather empirical evidence in support of either model. This article demonstrates how the strategic REM, modified to examine gambling exposure, uses standardized indices of exposure to social phenomena at the regional level to quantify social constructs.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Female Sexual Orientation, Childhood Gender Typicality and Adult Gender Identity

PubMed Central

Burri, Andrea; Cherkas, Lynn; Spector, Timothy; Rahman, Qazi

2011-01-01

Background Human sexual orientation is influenced by genetic and non-shared environmental factors as are two important psychological correlates – childhood gender typicality (CGT) and adult gender identity (AGI). However, researchers have been unable to resolve the genetic and non-genetic components that contribute to the covariation between these traits, particularly in women. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we performed a multivariate genetic analysis in a large sample of British female twins (N = 4,426) who completed a questionnaire assessing sexual attraction, CGT and AGI. Univariate genetic models indicated modest genetic influences on sexual attraction (25%), AGI (11%) and CGT (31%). For the multivariate analyses, a common pathway model best fitted the data. Conclusions/Significance This indicated that a single latent variable influenced by a genetic component and common non-shared environmental component explained the association between the three traits but there was substantial measurement error. These findings highlight common developmental factors affecting differences in sexual orientation. PMID:21760939

Identifying environmental variables explaining genotype-by-environment interaction for body weight of rainbow trout (Onchorynchus mykiss): reaction norm and factor analytic models.

PubMed

Sae-Lim, Panya; Komen, Hans; Kause, Antti; Mulder, Han A

2014-02-26

Identifying the relevant environmental variables that cause GxE interaction is often difficult when they cannot be experimentally manipulated. Two statistical approaches can be applied to address this question. When data on candidate environmental variables are available, GxE interaction can be quantified as a function of specific environmental variables using a reaction norm model. Alternatively, a factor analytic model can be used to identify the latent common factor that explains GxE interaction. This factor can be correlated with known environmental variables to identify those that are relevant. Previously, we reported a significant GxE interaction for body weight at harvest in rainbow trout reared on three continents. Here we explore their possible causes. Reaction norm and factor analytic models were used to identify which environmental variables (age at harvest, water temperature, oxygen, and photoperiod) may have caused the observed GxE interaction. Data on body weight at harvest was recorded on 8976 offspring reared in various locations: (1) a breeding environment in the USA (nucleus), (2) a recirculating aquaculture system in the Freshwater Institute in West Virginia, USA, (3) a high-altitude farm in Peru, and (4) a low-water temperature farm in Germany. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to compare models. The combination of days to harvest multiplied with daily temperature (Day*Degree) and photoperiod were identified by the reaction norm model as the environmental variables responsible for the GxE interaction. The latent common factor that was identified by the factor analytic model showed the highest correlation with Day*Degree. Day*Degree and photoperiod were the environmental variables that differed most between Peru and other environments. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria indicated that the factor analytical model was more parsimonious than the reaction norm model. Day*Degree and photoperiod were identified as environmental variables responsible for the strong GxE interaction for body weight at harvest in rainbow trout across four environments. Both the reaction norm and the factor analytic models can help identify the environmental variables responsible for GxE interaction. A factor analytic model is preferred over a reaction norm model when limited information on differences in environmental variables between farms is available.

Identifying environmental variables explaining genotype-by-environment interaction for body weight of rainbow trout (Onchorynchus mykiss): reaction norm and factor analytic models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Identifying the relevant environmental variables that cause GxE interaction is often difficult when they cannot be experimentally manipulated. Two statistical approaches can be applied to address this question. When data on candidate environmental variables are available, GxE interaction can be quantified as a function of specific environmental variables using a reaction norm model. Alternatively, a factor analytic model can be used to identify the latent common factor that explains GxE interaction. This factor can be correlated with known environmental variables to identify those that are relevant. Previously, we reported a significant GxE interaction for body weight at harvest in rainbow trout reared on three continents. Here we explore their possible causes. Methods Reaction norm and factor analytic models were used to identify which environmental variables (age at harvest, water temperature, oxygen, and photoperiod) may have caused the observed GxE interaction. Data on body weight at harvest was recorded on 8976 offspring reared in various locations: (1) a breeding environment in the USA (nucleus), (2) a recirculating aquaculture system in the Freshwater Institute in West Virginia, USA, (3) a high-altitude farm in Peru, and (4) a low-water temperature farm in Germany. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to compare models. Results The combination of days to harvest multiplied with daily temperature (Day*Degree) and photoperiod were identified by the reaction norm model as the environmental variables responsible for the GxE interaction. The latent common factor that was identified by the factor analytic model showed the highest correlation with Day*Degree. Day*Degree and photoperiod were the environmental variables that differed most between Peru and other environments. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria indicated that the factor analytical model was more parsimonious than the reaction norm model. Conclusions Day*Degree and photoperiod were identified as environmental variables responsible for the strong GxE interaction for body weight at harvest in rainbow trout across four environments. Both the reaction norm and the factor analytic models can help identify the environmental variables responsible for GxE interaction. A factor analytic model is preferred over a reaction norm model when limited information on differences in environmental variables between farms is available. PMID:24571451

Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model.

PubMed

Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva de

2017-01-01

To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of common indicators between them. There is similarity between the indicators adopted by companies, but one of the hospitals analyzed had a greater number of converging indicators to Global Reporting Initiative.

Reducing environmental impact of dairy cattle: a Czech case study.

PubMed

Havlikova, Martina; Kroeze, Carolien

2010-07-01

We analyze options to reduce the future environmental impact of dairy cattle production, using an optimization model (DAIRY) applied to the Czech Republic. The DAIRY model can be used to calculate the overall environmental impact (OEI). We show that aquatic eutrophication and global warming are the 2 most important problems caused by dairy cattle. These problems are largely caused by nitrate leaching and emissions from animal housing. The DAIRY model indicates that the costs of reducing the OEI in 2020 by 20% are 12 MEuro. It is most cost effective to achieve this reduction by improving the efficiency of animal manure used as fertilizer. We tested the sensitivity of the model to assumptions about the following: 1) the relative importance of environmental problems as expressed in weighting factors, and 2) future cattle numbers and milk yield per milking cow. The first case indicates that disagreement on which problem is most urgent need not lead to disagreement about policies to be undertaken. Regardless of the weighting factors used, aquatic eutrophication and global warming are the most important problems. However, the overall costs of reducing the OEI differ with alternative sets of weighting factors, because the costs of emission reduction differ among pollutants. The second case shows that the DAIRY model results are more sensitive to changes in cattle numbers than to changes in milk yield. This study is the first integrated assessment of dairy cattle production for a Central European country and illustrates how systematic analyses may help to find optimal solutions. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Fish biomarkers for environmental monitoring: An integrated model supporting enzyme activity and histopathological lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neta, Raimunda Nonata Fortes Carvalho; Torres Junior, Audalio Rebelo

2014-10-01

We present a mathematical model describing the association between glutathione-S-transferase activity and brachial lesions in the catfish, Sciades herzbergii (Ariidae) from a polluted port. The catfish were sampled from a port known to be contaminated with heavy metals and organic compounds and from a natural reserve in São Marcos Bay, Brazil. Two biomarkers, hepatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) activity and histopathological lesions, in gills tissue were measured. The values for GST activity were modeled with the occurrence of branchial lesions by fitting a third order polynomial. Results from the mathematical model indicate that GST activity has a strong polynomial relationship with the occurrence of branchial lesions in both the wet and the dry seasons, but only at the polluted port site. The model developed in this study indicates that branchial and hepatic lesions are initiated when GST activity reaches 2.15 μmol min-1 mg protein-1. Beyond this limit, GST activity decreased to very low levels and irreversible histopathological lesions occurred. This mathematical model provides a realistic approach to analyze predictive biomarkers of environmental health status.

Modeling the impact of biota on polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) fate and transport in Lake Ontario using a population-based multi-compartment fugacity approach.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangfei; Ng, Carla A; Small, Mitchell J

2018-06-12

Organisms have long been treated as receptors in exposure studies of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The influences of environmental pollution on organisms are well recognized. However, the impact of biota on PCB transport in an environmental system has not been considered in sufficient detail. In this study, a population-based multi-compartment fugacity model is developed by reconfiguring the organisms as populated compartments and reconstructing all the exchange processes between the organism compartments and environmental compartments, especially the previously ignored feedback routes from biota to the environment. We evaluate the model performance by simulating the PCB concentration distribution in Lake Ontario using published loading records. The lake system is divided into three environment compartments (air, water, and sediment) and several organism groups according to the dominant local biotic species. The comparison indicates that the simulated results are well-matched by a list of published field measurements from different years. We identify a new process, called Facilitated Biotic Intermedia Transport (FBIT), to describe the enhanced pollution transport that occurs between environmental media and organisms. As the hydrophobicity of PCB congener increases, the organism population exerts greater influence on PCB mass flows. In a high biomass scenario, the model simulation indicates significant FBIT effects and biotic storage effects with hydrophobic PCB congeners, which also lead to significant shifts in systemic contaminant exchange rates between organisms and the environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kicking the Camel: Adolescent Smoking Behaviors after Two Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shillington, Audrey M.; Clapp, John D.

2000-01-01

Public Health Model was used to examine relationships between smoking severity (never smokers, former smokers, continued smokers) and host and environmental variables. Results indicate former smokers are more like never smokers on most risk and protective variables. Final analyses indicated continued smokers are more likely to be Non-Black and…

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to both urban planners and city managers. Further environmental sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the living population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.

A strategic management model for evaluation of health, safety and environmental performance.

PubMed

Abbaspour, Majid; Toutounchian, Solmaz; Roayaei, Emad; Nassiri, Parvin

2012-05-01

Strategic health, safety, and environmental management system (HSE-MS) involves systematic and cooperative planning in each phase of the lifecycle of a project to ensure that interaction among the industry group, client, contractor, stakeholder, and host community exists with the highest level of health, safety, and environmental standard performances. Therefore, it seems necessary to assess the HSE-MS performance of contractor(s) by a comparative strategic management model with the aim of continuous improvement. The present Strategic Management Model (SMM) has been illustrated by a case study and the results show that the model is a suitable management tool for decision making in a contract environment, especially in oil and gas fields and based on accepted international standards within the framework of management deming cycle. To develop this model, a data bank has been created, which includes the statistical data calculated by converting the HSE performance qualitative data into quantitative values. Based on this fact, the structure of the model has been formed by defining HSE performance indicators according to the HSE-MS model. Therefore, 178 indicators have been selected which have been grouped into four attributes. Model output provides quantitative measures of HSE-MS performance as a percentage of an ideal level with maximum possible score for each attribute. Defining the strengths and weaknesses of the contractor(s) is another capability of this model. On the other hand, this model provides a ranking that could be used as the basis for decision making at the contractors' pre-qualification phase or during the execution of the project.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE PAGES

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; ...

2016-05-02

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Biomarkers of environmental benzene exposure.

PubMed Central

Weisel, C; Yu, R; Roy, A; Georgopoulos, P

1996-01-01

Environmental exposures to benzene result in increases in body burden that are reflected in various biomarkers of exposure, including benzene in exhaled breath, benzene in blood and urinary trans-trans-muconic acid and S-phenylmercapturic acid. A review of the literature indicates that these biomarkers can be used to distinguish populations with different levels of exposure (such as smokers from nonsmokers and occupationally exposed from environmentally exposed populations) and to determine differences in metabolism. Biomarkers in humans have shown that the percentage of benzene metabolized by the ring-opening pathway is greater at environmental exposures than that at higher occupational exposures, a trend similar to that found in animal studies. This suggests that the dose-response curve is nonlinear; that potential different metabolic mechanisms exist at high and low doses; and that the validity of a linear extrapolation of adverse effects measured at high doses to a population exposed to lower, environmental levels of benzene is uncertain. Time-series measurements of the biomarker, exhaled breath, were used to evaluate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Biases were identified between the PBPK model predictions and experimental data that were adequately described using an empirical compartmental model. It is suggested that a mapping of the PBPK model to a compartmental model can be done to optimize the parameters in the PBPK model to provide a future framework for developing a population physiologically based pharmacokinetic model. PMID:9118884

Spatial pattern of spring phytoplankton community in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Ran; Cai, Yanhong; Wei, Yongjie; Li, Xiaoming

2017-04-01

The spatial pattern of phytoplankton community can indicate potential environmental variation in different water bodies. In this context, spatial pattern of phytoplankton community and its response to environmental and spatial factors were studied in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea using multivariate statistical techniques. Results showed that 94 species belonging to 40 genera, 5 phyla were recorded (the remaining 9 were identified to genus level) with diatoms being the most dominant followed by dinoflagellates. Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), nonmetric multidimentional scaling (NMDS), and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) all demomstrated that the whole study area could be divided into 3 subareas with significant differences. Indicator species analysis (ISA) further confirmed that the indicator species of each subarea correlated significantly with specific environmental factors. Distance-based linear model (Distlm) and Mantel test revealed that silicate (SiO32-), phosphate (PO43-), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were the most important environmental factors influencing phytoplankton community. Variation portioning (VP) finally concluded that the shared fractions of environmental and spatial factors were higher than either the pure environmental effects or the pure spatial effects, suggesting phytoplankton biogeography were mainly affected by both the environmental variability and dispersal limitation. Additionally, other factors (eg., trace metals, biological grazing, climate change, and time-scale variation) may also be the sources of the unexplained variation which need further study.

A multidisciplinary weight of evidence approach for environmental risk assessment at the Costa Concordia wreck: Integrative indices from Mussel Watch.

PubMed

Regoli, Francesco; Pellegrini, David; Cicero, Anna Maria; Nigro, Marco; Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Di Carlo, Marta; Nardi, Alessandro; Gaion, Andrea; Scuderi, Alice; Giuliani, Silvia; Romanelli, Giulia; Berto, Daniela; Trabucco, Benedetta; Guidi, Patrizia; Bernardeschi, Margherita; Scarcelli, Vittoria; Frenzilli, Giada

2014-05-01

A complex framework of chemical, biological and oceanographic activities was immediately activated after the Costa Concordia shipwreck, to assess possible contamination events and the environmental impact during both emergency and wreck removal operations. In the present paper, we describe the results obtained with caged mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, chosen as bioindicator organisms to detect variations of bioavailability and the early onset of molecular and cellular effects (biomarkers). Seven translocation experiments were carried out during the first year from the incident, with organisms deployed at 2 depths in 3 different sites. After 4-6 weeks, tissue concentrations were measured for the main classes of potentially released chemicals (trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile and aliphatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, halogenated pesticides, organotin compounds, brominated flame retardants, anionic surfactants); a wide battery of biomarkers covered responses indicative of exposure, detoxification, oxidative stress, cell damage and genotoxic effects. Results excluded serious contamination events or a consistent increase of environmental pollution although some episodic spills with reversible effects were detected. Data were elaborated within a quantitative weight of evidence (WOE) model which provided synthetic hazard indices for each typology of data, before their overall integration in an environmental risk index, which generally ranged from slight to moderate. The proposed WOE model was confirmed a useful tool to summarize large datasets of complex data in integrative indices, and to simplify the interpretation for stakeholders and decision makers, thus supporting a more comprehensive process of "site-oriented" management decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prioritization of Louisiana Parishes based on Industrial Releases of Known or Suspected Carcinogens.

PubMed

Katner, Adrienne

2015-01-01

This investigation evaluated the geographic distribution of carcinogen releases by Louisiana industries to prioritize areas for regulatory oversight, research and monitoring, and to promote clinician awareness and vigilance. Data on estimated industry releases for the period between 1996 and 2011 were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Toxics Release Inventory. Chemicals associated with cancers of the prostate, lung, bladder, kidney, breast and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were identified. The Risk Screening Environmental Indicators model was used to derive measures or model scores based on chemical toxicity, fate and transport, and population characteristics. Parishes, chemicals, industries and media generating the highest model scores were identified. Parishes with the highest model scores were East Baton Rouge, Calcasieu, Caddo and St. John the Baptist. Clinicians should carefully monitor cancer cases in these areas, and if patients reside near or work in industry, an occupational and environmental history should be considered.

Meta-Modeling-Based Groundwater Remediation Optimization under Flexibility in Environmental Standard.

PubMed

He, Li; Xu, Zongda; Fan, Xing; Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei

2017-05-01

  This study develops a meta-modeling based mathematical programming approach with flexibility in environmental standards. It integrates numerical simulation, meta-modeling analysis, and fuzzy programming within a general framework. A set of models between remediation strategies and remediation performance can well guarantee the mitigation in computational efforts in the simulation and optimization process. In order to prevent the occurrence of over-optimistic and pessimistic optimization strategies, a high satisfaction level resulting from the implementation of a flexible standard can indicate the degree to which the environmental standard is satisfied. The proposed approach is applied to a naphthalene-contaminated site in China. Results show that a longer remediation period corresponds to a lower total pumping rate and a stringent risk standard implies a high total pumping rate. The wells located near or in the down-gradient direction to the contaminant sources have the most significant efficiency among all of remediation schemes.

Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2014-07-01

Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

Chloride ion transport and fate in oilfield wastewater reuse by interval dynamic multimedia aquivalence model.

PubMed

Hu, Y; Zhang, C; Wang, D Z; Wen, J Y; Chen, M H; Li, Y

2013-01-01

A surface flow constructed wetland was built up to dispose of oilfield wastewater with a high level of inorganic salt ions. Chlorine ion (Cl(-)) was selected as an indicator of soil secondary salinization, and an interval dynamic multimedia aquivalence (IDMA) model was developed to investigate the dynamic multimedia environmental (air, water, soil, flora, and groundwater) effects of Cl(-) in the wastewater irrigation process between 2002 and 2020. The modeled Cl(-) concentrations were in good agreement with the measured ones, as indicated by the interval average logarithmic residual errors (IALREs) being generally lower than 0.5 logarithmic units. The model results showed that the temporal trends of Cl(-) concentrations in the multimedia environments represented a relatively steady state. More than 97.00% of the mass exchange was finished between soil and groundwater compartments, and Cl(-) finally outputted the environmental system by the pathways of advection outflows in the water (71.03%) and groundwater (24.02%). Soil (59.17%) was the dominant sink of Cl(-). It was revealed that the high level of Cl(-) in oilfield wastewater was well treated by the constructed wetland, and there was not a significant environmental effect of soil secondary salinization in the oilfield wastewater reused for the constructed wetland irrigation.

Examination of the Relationship between In-Store Environmental Factors and Fruit and Vegetable Purchasing among Hispanics.

PubMed

Sanchez-Flack, Jennifer; Pickrel, Julie L; Belch, George; Lin, Shih-Fan; Anderson, Cheryl A M; Martinez, Maria Elena; Arredondo, Elva M; Ayala, Guadalupe X

2017-10-27

Retail food environments have received attention for their influence on dietary behaviors and for their nutrition intervention potential. To improve diet-related behaviors, such as fruit and vegetable (FV) purchasing, it is important to examine its relationship with in-store environmental characteristics. This study used baseline data from the " El Valor de Nuestra Salud " study to examine how in-store environmental characteristics, such as product availability, placement and promotion, were associated with FV purchasing among Hispanic customers in San Diego County. Mixed linear regression models indicated that greater availability of fresh FVs was associated with a $0.36 increase in FV purchasing ( p = 0.01). Placement variables, specifically each additional square foot of display space dedicated to FVs ( p = 0.01) and each additional fresh FV display ( p = 0.01), were associated with a $0.02 increase and $0.29 decrease, respectively, in FV purchasing. Introducing FV promotions in the final model was not related to FV purchasing. Exploratory analyses indicated that men reported spending $3.69 fewer dollars on FVs compared to women, controlling for covariates ( p = 0.02). These results can help inform interventions targeting in-store environmental characteristics to encourage FV purchasing among Hispanics.

A case study by life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuyun

2017-05-01

This article aims to assess the potential environmental impact of an electrical grinder during its life cycle. The Life Cycle Inventory Analysis was conducted based on the Simplified Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) Drivers that calculated from the Valuation of Social Cost and Simplified Life Cycle Assessment Model (VSSM). The detailed results for LCI can be found under Appendix II. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment was performed based on Eco-indicator 99 method. The analysis results indicated that the major contributor to the environmental impact as it accounts for over 60% overall SLCA output. In which, 60% of the emission resulted from the logistic required for the maintenance activities. This was measured by conducting the hotspot analysis. After performing sensitivity analysis, it is evidenced that changing fuel type results in significant decrease environmental footprint. The environmental benefit can also be seen from the negative output values of the recycling activities. By conducting Life Cycle Assessment analysis, the potential environmental impact of the electrical grinder was investigated.

Assessment of environmental improvement measures using a novel integrated model: a case study of the Shenzhen River catchment, China.

PubMed

Qin, Hua-Peng; Su, Qiong; Khu, Soon-Thiam

2013-01-15

Integrated water environmental management in a rapidly urbanizing area often requires combining social, economic and engineering measures in order to be effective. However, in reality, these measures are often considered independently by different planners, and decisions are made in a hierarchical manner; this has led to problems in environmental pollution control and also an inability to devise innovative solutions due to technological lock-in. In this paper, we use a novel coupled system dynamics and water environmental model (SyDWEM) to simulate the dynamic interactions between the socio-economic system, water infrastructure and receiving water in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in Shenzhen, China. The model is then applied to assess the effects of proposed socio-economic or engineering measures on environmental and development indicators in the catchment for 2011-2020. The results indicate that 1) measures to adjust industry structures have a positive effect on both water quantity and quality in the catchment; 2) measures to increase the labor productivity, the water use efficiency, the water transfer quota or the reclaimed wastewater reuse can alleviate the water shortage, but cannot improve water quality in the river; 3) measures to increase the wastewater treatment rate or the pollutant removal rate can improve water quality in the river, but have no effect on water shortage. Based on the effectiveness of the individual measures, a combination of socio-economic and engineering measures is proposed, which can achieve water environmental sustainability in the study area. Thus, we demonstrate that SyDWEM has the capacity to evaluate the effects of both socio-economic and engineering measures; it also provides a tool for integrated decision making by socio-economic and water infrastructure planners. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Family Cohesion Moderates Environmental Influences on Prosocial Behavior in Nigerian Adolescent Twins.

PubMed

Hur, Yoon-Mi; Taylor, Jeanette; Jeong, Hoe-Uk; Park, Min-Seo; Haberstick, Brett C

2017-06-01

Research shows that perceived family cohesion is positively related to prosocial behavior in adolescents. In this study, we investigated heritability of prosocial behavior (PB) and perceived family cohesion (FC) among Nigerian twins attending public schools in Lagos State, Nigeria (mean age = 14.7 years, SD = 1.7 years), and explored the issue of whether children's perception of cohesive family environment moderated genetic and environmental influences on (PB). The PB scale of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and the FC scale of the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Evaluation Scale III were completed by 2,376 twins (241 monozygotic (MZ) male, 354 MZ female, 440 dizygotic (DZ) male, 553 DZ female, and 788 opposite-sex DZ twins). A general sex-limitation and the bivariate genotype by environment interaction (G×E) models were applied to the data. The general sex-limitation model showed no significant sex differences, indicating that additive genetic and non-shared environmental influences were, 38% (95% CI = 31, 46) and 62% (95% CI = 54, 69) for PB and 33% (95% CI = 24, 40) and 67% (95% CI = 60, 76) for FC in both sexes. These estimates were similar to those found in Western and Asian twin studies to date. The correlation between PB and FC was 0.36. The best-fitting bivariate G×E model indicated that FC significantly moderated non-shared environmental influence unique to PB (E×E interaction). Specifically, non-shared environmental contributions to PB were highest when FC was lowest, and decreased as the levels of FC increased. However, genetic variances in PB were stable across all levels of FC. These findings suggest that FC reduces individual differences in PB by changing non-shared environmental experiences rather than genetic factors in PB.

Species sorting and patch dynamics in harlequin metacommunities affect the relative importance of environment and space.

PubMed

Leibold, Mathew A; Loeuille, Nicolas

2015-12-01

Metacommunity theory indicates that variation in local community structure can be partitioned into components including those related to local environmental conditions vs. spatial effects and that these can be quantified using statistical methods based on variation partitioning. It has been hypothesized that joint associations of community composition with environment and space could be due to patch dynamics involving colonization-extinction processes in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes but this has yet to be theoretically shown. We develop a two-patch, type-two, species competition model in such a "harlequin" landscape (where different patches have different environments) to evaluate how composition is related to environmental and spatial effects as a function of background extinction rate. Using spatially implicit analytical models, we find that the environmental association of community composition declines with extinction rate as expected. Using spatially explicit simulation models, we further find that there is an increase in the spatial structure with extinction due to spatial patterning into clusters that are not related to environmental conditions but that this increase is limited. Natural metacommunities often show both environment and spatial determination even under conditions of relatively high isolation and these could be more easily explained by our model than alternative metacommunity models.

Thermal Residual Stress in Environmental Barrier Coated Silicon Nitride - Modeled

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ali, Abdul-Aziz; Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.

2009-01-01

When exposed to combustion environments containing moisture both un-reinforced and fiber reinforced silicon based ceramic materials tend to undergo surface recession. To avoid surface recession environmental barrier coating systems are required. However, due to differences in the elastic and thermal properties of the substrate and the environmental barrier coating, thermal residual stresses can be generated in the coated substrate. Depending on their magnitude and nature thermal residual stresses can have significant influence on the strength and fracture behavior of coated substrates. To determine the maximum residual stresses developed during deposition of the coatings, a finite element model (FEM) was developed. Using this model, the thermal residual stresses were predicted in silicon nitride substrates coated with three environmental coating systems namely barium strontium aluminum silicate (BSAS), rare earth mono silicate (REMS) and earth mono di-silicate (REDS). A parametric study was also conducted to determine the influence of coating layer thickness and material parameters on thermal residual stress. Results indicate that z-direction stresses in all three systems are small and negligible, but maximum in-plane stresses can be significant depending on the composition of the constituent layer and the distance from the substrate. The BSAS and REDS systems show much lower thermal residual stresses than REMS system. Parametric analysis indicates that in each system, the thermal residual stresses can be decreased with decreasing the modulus and thickness of the coating.

Pesticides: an important but underused model for the environmental health sciences.

PubMed Central

Hodgson, E; Levi, P E

1996-01-01

Pesticides are high-volume, widely used, environmental chemicals and there is continuous debate concerning their possible role in many chronic human health effects. Because of their known structures, known rates of application, and the presence of a large occupationally exposed population, they are not only important in their own right but are ideal models for the effects of environmental chemicals on the population in general. For reasons that are not always clear, this potential has not been realized. These exposed populations represent an underused asset in the study of the human health effects of environmental contaminants. Chronic effects thought to involve pesticides include carcinogenesis, neurotoxicity, and reproductive and development effects. In this paper we attempt to summarize this concern and, relying to a large extent on studies in our own laboratory, to indicate the importance and present status of studies of the mammalian metabolism of pesticides and indicate the need for further use of this model. Aspects considered include the role of pesticides as substrates for xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes such as cytochrome P450 and the flavin-containing monooxygenase and their role as inducers or inhibitors of metabolic enzymes. The interaction of pesticides with complex multienzyme pathways, the role of biological characteristics, particularly gender, in pesticide metabolism, and the special role of pesticides at portals of entry and in target tissues are also considered. PMID:8722114

Sex moderates associations between perceptions of the physical and social environments and physical activity in youth.

PubMed

Moore, Justin B; Beets, Michael W; Kaczynski, Andrew T; Besenyi, Gina M; Morris, Sara F; Kolbe, Mary Bea

2014-01-01

To determine if the sex of the child moderates the relationships between perceptions of the physical/social environments and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in youth. Cross-sectional. North Carolina. A final sample of 711 children, 8 to 17 years of age, was available for analysis. Self-reported presence of environmental factors previously identified to be associated with physical activity in youth was collected via survey. Daily MVPA was assessed via accelerometry for a minimum of 4 days. Multilevel linear regression models were employed, adjusted for clustering at the county and individual level. MVPA was first regressed onto sex and environmental perception items while controlling for grade and race. The interaction term between sex and environmental perception was then added to the model. A significant positive association was observed in the first models between MVPA and two items related to parent permission to (1) walk and (2) ride a bike in the neighborhood. These effects were fully moderated by sex, with males indicating "yes" on these items exhibiting 6.87 and 5.21 more minutes of MVPA (respectively) than males indicating "no." Environmental perceptions appear to be related to MVPA, but this relationship is present only in males. Future research should be conducted to identify modifiable social and physical characteristics that are associated with MVPA in females.

[Evaluation of eco-environmental quality based on artificial neural network and remote sensing techniques].

PubMed

Li, Hongyi; Shi, Zhou; Sha, Jinming; Cheng, Jieliang

2006-08-01

In the present study, vegetation, soil brightness, and moisture indices were extracted from Landsat ETM remote sensing image, heat indices were extracted from MODIS land surface temperature product, and climate index and other auxiliary geographical information were selected as the input of neural network. The remote sensing eco-environmental background value of standard interest region evaluated in situ was selected as the output of neural network, and the back propagation (BP) neural network prediction model containing three layers was designed. The network was trained, and the remote sensing eco-environmental background value of Fuzhou in China was predicted by using software MATLAB. The class mapping of remote sensing eco-environmental background values based on evaluation standard showed that the total classification accuracy was 87. 8%. The method with a scheme of prediction first and classification then could provide acceptable results in accord with the regional eco-environment types.

Application of the IEUBK model for linking Children's blood lead with environmental exposure in a mining site, south China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xin-Ying; Carpenter, David O; Song, Yong-Jin; Chen, Ping; Qin, Yaoming; Wei, Ni-Yu; Lin, Shan-Chun

2017-12-01

This study consisted of a site- and age-specific investigation linking children's blood lead level (BLL) to environmental exposures in a historic mining site in south China. A total of 151 children, aged 3-7 years, were included in this study. The geometric mean (GM) BLL was 8.22 μg/dl, indicating an elevated BLL. The Integrated Exposure Uptake Bio-Kinetic (IEUBK) model has proven useful at many sites for study of routes of exposure. Application of the IEUBK model to these children indicated that the GM difference between observed and predicted BLL levels was only 1.07 μg/dl. It was found that the key environmental exposure pathway was soil/dust intake, which contributed 86.3% to the total risk. Younger children had higher BLL than did older children. Therefore, of the various low risk-high benefit solutions, interventions for the children living near the site should be focused on the dust removal and soil remediation. Implementation of the China Eco-village Construction Plan and China New Rural Reconstruction Movement of the government may be a better solution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Myths of Indicator Species: Issues and Further Consideration in the Use of Static Concepts for Ecological Applications

PubMed Central

Zettler, Michael L.; Proffitt, C. Edward; Darr, Alexander; Degraer, Steven; Devriese, Lisa; Greathead, Clare; Kotta, Jonne; Magni, Paolo; Martin, Georg; Reiss, Henning; Speybroeck, Jeroen; Tagliapietra, Davide; Van Hoey, Gert; Ysebaert, Tom

2013-01-01

The use of static indicator species, in which species are expected to have a similar sensitivity or tolerance to either natural or human-induced stressors, does not account for possible shifts in tolerance along natural environmental gradients and between biogeographic regions. Their indicative value may therefore be considered at least questionable. In this paper we demonstrate how species responses (i.e. abundance) to changes in sediment grain size and organic matter (OM) alter along a salinity gradient and conclude with a plea for prudency when interpreting static indicator-based quality indices. Six model species (three polychaetes, one amphipod and two bivalves) from the North Sea, Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea region were selected. Our study demonstrated that there were no generic relationships between environment and biota and half of the studied species showed different responses in different seas. Consequently, the following points have to be carefully considered when applying static indicator-based quality indices: (1) species tolerances and preferences may change along environmental gradients and between different biogeographic regions, (2) as environment modifies species autecology, there is a need to adjust indicator species lists along major environmental gradients and (3) there is a risk of including sibling or cryptic species in calculating the index value of a species. PMID:24147123

Is CO2 emission a side effect of financial development? An empirical analysis for China.

PubMed

Hao, Yu; Zhang, Zong-Yong; Liao, Hua; Wei, Yi-Ming; Wang, Shuo

2016-10-01

Based on panel data for 29 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012, this paper explores the relationship between financial development and environmental quality in China. A comprehensive framework is utilized to estimate both the direct and indirect effects of financial development on CO 2 emissions in China using a carefully designed two-stage regression model. The first-difference and orthogonal-deviation Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods are used to control for potential endogeneity and introduce dynamics. To ensure the robustness of the estimations, two indicators measuring financial development-financial depth and financial efficiency-are used. The empirical results indicate that the direct effects of financial depth and financial efficiency on environmental quality are positive and negative, respectively. The indirect effects of both indicators are U shaped and dominate the shape of the total effects. These findings suggest that the influences of the financial development on environment depend on the level of economic development. At the early stage of economic growth, financial development is environmentally friendly. When the economy is highly developed, a higher level of financial development is harmful to the environmental quality.

Development of a system of indicators for sustainable port management.

PubMed

Peris-Mora, E; Diez Orejas, J M; Subirats, A; Ibáñez, S; Alvarez, P

2005-12-01

The 1998 project ECOPORT, "Towards A Sustainable Transport Network", developed by the Valencia Port Authority (VPA), established the bases for implementing an Environmental Management System (EMS) in industrial harbours. The use of data and information shall always be required to develop an efficient EMS. The objective of the present research (INDAPORT) study is to propose a system of sustainable environmental management indicators to be used by any port authorities. All activities performed within a port area are analysed for any potential environmental impacts and risks. An environmental analysis of port activities has been carried out with the objective of designing the indicators system. Twenty-one corresponding activities have been identified for large industrial ports. Subsequently, the same methodology developed to date will be later applied to other Spanish and European ports. The study has been developed by using an original system and a methodology, which simultaneously use stage diagrams and systemic models (material and energy flow charts). Multi-criteria analysis techniques were used to evaluate potential impacts (identification of factors and evaluation of impacts).

Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

2017-12-01

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

The effectiveness of a head-heart-hands model for natural and environmental science learning in urban schools.

PubMed

Jagannathan, Radha; Camasso, Michael J; Delacalle, Maia

2018-02-01

We describe an environmental and natural science program called Nurture thru Nature (NtN) that seeks to improve mathematics and science performance of students in disadvantaged communities, and to increase student interest in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) careers. The program draws conceptual guidance from the Head-Heart-Hands model that informs the current educational movement to foster environmental understanding and sustainability. Employing an experimental design and data from seven cohorts of students, we find some promising, albeit preliminary, indications that the program can increase students' science knowledge and grades in mathematics, science and language arts. We discuss the special adaptations that environmental and sustainability education programs need to incorporate if they are to be successful in today's resource depleted urban schools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sociopolitical and economic elements to explain the environmental performance of countries.

PubMed

Almeida, Thiago Alexandre das Neves; García-Sánchez, Isabel-María

2017-01-01

The present research explains environmental performance using an ecological composite index as the dependent variable and focusing on two national dimensions: sociopolitical characteristics and economics. Environmental performance is measured using the Composite Index of Environmental Performance (CIEP) indicator proposed by García-Sánchez et al. (2015). The first model performs a factor analysis to aggregate the variables according to each analyzed dimension. In the second model, the estimation is run using only single variables. Both models are estimated using generalized least square estimation (GLS) using panel data from 152 countries and 6 years. The results show that sociopolitical factors and international trade have a positive effect on environmental performance. When the variables are separately analyzed, democracy and social policy have a positive effect on environmental performance while transport, infrastructure, consumption of goods, and tourism have a negative effect. Further observation is that the trade-off between importing and exporting countries overshadows the pollution caused by production. It was also observed that infrastructure has a negative coefficient for developing countries and positive for developed countries. The best performances are in the democratic and richer countries that are located in Europe, while the worst environmental performance is by the nondemocratic and the poorest countries, which are on the African continent.

Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

PubMed

Norton, Bryan G

2008-12-01

A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

A Novel Environmental Justice Indicator for Managing Local Air Pollution.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Gladson, Laura; Cromar, Kevin

2018-06-14

Environmental justice efforts in the United States seek to provide equal protection from environmental hazards, such as air pollution, to all groups, particularly among traditionally disadvantaged populations. To accomplish this objective, the U.S. EPA has previously required states to use an environmental justice screening tool as part of air quality planning decision-making. The generally utilized approach to assess potential areas of environmental justice concern relies on static comparisons of environmental and demographic information to identify areas where minority and low income populations experience elevated environmental exposures, but does not include any additional information that may inform the trade-offs that sub-populations of varying socio-demographic groups make when choosing where to reside in cities. In order to address this limitation, job accessibility (measured by a mobility index defining the number of jobs available within a set commuting time) was developed as a novel environmental justice indicator of environmental justice priority areas at the local level. This approach is modeled using real-world data in Allegheny County, PA (USA), and identifies areas with relatively high levels of outdoor air pollution and low access to jobs. While traditional tools tend to flag the poorest neighborhoods for environmental justice concerns, this new method offers a more refined analysis, targeting populations suffering from the highest environmental burden without the associated benefits of urban living.

Remote sensing measurements of sea surface temperature as an indicator of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oyster meat and human illnesses.

PubMed

Konrad, Stephanie; Paduraru, Peggy; Romero-Barrios, Pablo; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-08-31

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is a naturally occurring bacterium found in marine environments worldwide. It can cause gastrointestinal illness in humans, primarily through raw oyster consumption. Water temperatures, and potentially other environmental factors, play an important role in the growth and proliferation of Vp in the environment. Quantifying the relationships between environmental variables and indicators or incidence of Vp illness is valuable for public health surveillance to inform and enable suitable preventative measures. This study aimed to assess the relationship between environmental parameters and Vp in British Columbia (BC), Canada. The study used Vp counts in oyster meat from 2002-2015 and laboratory confirmed Vp illnesses from 2011-2015 for the province of BC. The data were matched to environmental parameters from publicly available sources, including remote sensing measurements of nighttime sea surface temperature (SST) obtained from satellite readings at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Using three separate models, this paper assessed the relationship between (1) daily SST and Vp counts in oyster meat, (2) weekly mean Vp counts in oysters and weekly Vp illnesses, and (3) weekly mean SST and weekly Vp illnesses. The effects of salinity and chlorophyll a were also evaluated. Linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between SST and Vp, and piecewise regression was used to identify SST thresholds of concern. A total of 2327 oyster samples and 293 laboratory confirmed illnesses were included. In model 1, both SST and salinity were significant predictors of log(Vp) counts in oyster meat. In model 2, the mean log(Vp) count in oyster meat was a significant predictor of Vp illnesses. In model 3, weekly mean SST was a significant predictor of weekly Vp illnesses. The piecewise regression models identified a SST threshold of approximately 14 o C for both model 1 and 3, indicating increased risk of Vp in oyster meat and Vp illnesses at higher temperatures. Monitoring of SST, particularly through readily accessible remote sensing data, could serve as a warning signal for Vp and help inform the introduction and cessation of preventative or control measures.

Tracking contributions to human body burden of environmental chemicals by correlating environmental measurements with biomarkers.

PubMed

Shin, Hyeong-Moo; McKone, Thomas E; Sohn, Michael D; Bennett, Deborah H

2014-01-01

The work addresses current knowledge gaps regarding causes for correlations between environmental and biomarker measurements and explores the underappreciated role of variability in disaggregating exposure attributes that contribute to biomarker levels. Our simulation-based study considers variability in environmental and food measurements, the relative contribution of various exposure sources (indoors and food), and the biological half-life of a compound, on the resulting correlations between biomarker and environmental measurements. For two hypothetical compounds whose half-lives are on the order of days for one and years for the other, we generate synthetic daily environmental concentrations and food exposures with different day-to-day and population variability as well as different amounts of home- and food-based exposure. Assuming that the total intake results only from home-based exposure and food ingestion, we estimate time-dependent biomarker concentrations using a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model. Box plots of modeled R2 values indicate that although the R2 correlation between wipe and biological (e.g., serum) measurements is within the same range for the two compounds, the relative contribution of the home exposure to the total exposure could differ by up to 20%, thus providing the relative indication of their contribution to body burden. The novel method introduced in this paper provides insights for evaluating scenarios or experiments where sample, exposure, and compound variability must be weighed in order to interpret associations between exposure data.

The remarkable environmental rebound effect of electric cars: a microeconomic approach.

PubMed

Font Vivanco, David; Freire-González, Jaume; Kemp, René; van der Voet, Ester

2014-10-21

This article presents a stepwise, refined, and practical analytical framework to model the microeconomic environmental rebound effect (ERE) stemming from cost differences of electric cars in terms of changes in multiple life cycle environmental indicators. The analytical framework is based on marginal consumption analysis and hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA). The article makes a novel contribution through a reinterpretation of the traditional rebound effect and methodological refinements. It also provides novel empirical results about the ERE for plug-in hybrid electric (PHE), full-battery electric (FBE), and hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) cars for Europe. The ERE is found to have a remarkable impact on product-level environmental scores. For the PHE car, the ERE causes a marginal increase in demand and environmental pressures due to a small decrease in the cost of using this technology. For FBE and HFC cars, the high capital costs cause a noteworthy decrease in environmental pressures for some indicators (negative rebound effect). The results corroborate the concern over the high influence of cost differences for environmental assessment, and they prompt sustainable consumption policies to consider markets and prices as tools rather than as an immutable background.

Adherence of private health system hospitals to dissemination of outcomes according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) model

PubMed Central

Machado, Celso; César, Robson Danúbio da Silva; de Souza, Maria Tereza Saraiva

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To verify if there is an analogy between the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative adopted by hospitals in the private healthcare system. Methods Documentary research supported by reports that are electronically available on the website of the companies surveyed. Results The organizations surveyed had a significant adherence of their economic, social and environmental indicators of the model proposed by the Global Reporting Initiative, showing an analogous field of common indicators between them. Conclusion There is similarity between the indicators adopted by companies, but one of the hospitals analyzed had a greater number of converging indicators to Global Reporting Initiative. PMID:29091158

Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

2017-09-01

Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Use of geographic indicators of healthcare, environment and socioeconomic factors to characterize environmental health disparities.

PubMed

Padilla, Cindy M; Kihal-Talantikit, Wahida; Perez, Sandra; Deguen, Severine

2016-07-22

An environmental health inequality is a major public health concern in Europe. However just few studies take into account a large set of characteristics to analyze this problematic. The aim of this study was to identify and describe how socioeconomic, health accessibility and exposure factors accumulate and interact in small areas in a French urban context, to assess environmental health inequalities related to infant and neonatal mortality. Environmental indicators on deprivation index, proximity to high-traffic roads, green space, and healthcare accessibility were created using the Geographical Information System. Cases were collected from death certificates in the city hall of each municipality in the Nice metropolitan area. Using the parental addresses, cases were geocoded to their census block of residence. A classification using a Multiple Component Analysis following by a Hierarchical Clustering allow us to characterize the census blocks in terms of level of socioeconomic, environmental and accessibility to healthcare, which are very diverse definition by nature. Relation between infant and neonatal mortality rate and the three environmental patterns which categorize the census blocks after the classification was performed using a standard Poisson regression model for count data after checking the assumption of dispersion. Based on geographic indicators, three environmental patterns were identified. We found environmental inequalities and social health inequalities in Nice metropolitan area. Moreover these inequalities are counterbalance by the close proximity of deprived census blocks to healthcare facilities related to mother and newborn. So therefore we demonstrate no environmental health inequalities related to infant and neonatal mortality. Examination of patterns of social, environmental and in relation with healthcare access is useful to identify census blocks with needs and their effects on health. Similar analyzes could be implemented and considered in other cities or related to other birth outcomes.

Prediction of biological integrity based on environmental similarity--revealing the scale-dependent link between study area and top environmental predictors.

PubMed

Bedoya, David; Manolakos, Elias S; Novotny, Vladimir

2011-03-01

Indices of Biological integrity (IBI) are considered valid indicators of the overall health of a water body because the biological community is an endpoint within natural systems. However, prediction of biological integrity using information from multi-parameter environmental observations is a challenging problem due to the hierarchical organization of the natural environment, the existence of nonlinear inter-dependencies among variables as well as natural stochasticity and measurement noise. We present a method for predicting the Fish Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) using multiple environmental observations at the state-scale in Ohio. Instream (chemical and physical quality) and offstream parameters (regional and local upstream land uses, stream fragmentation, and point source density and intensity) are used for this purpose. The IBI predictions are obtained using the environmental site-similarity concept and following a simple to implement leave-one-out cross validation approach. An IBI prediction for a sampling site is calculated by averaging the observed IBI scores of observations clustered in the most similar branch of a dendrogram--a hierarchical clustering tree of environmental observations--built using the rest of the observations. The standardized Euclidean distance is used to assess dissimilarity between observations. The constructed predictive model was able to explain 61% of the IBI variability statewide. Stream fragmentation and regional land use explained 60% of the variability; the remaining 1% was explained by instream habitat quality. Metrics related to local land use, water quality, and point source density and intensity did not improve the predictive model at the state-scale. The impact of local environmental conditions was evaluated by comparing local characteristics between well- and mispredicted sites. Significant differences in local land use patterns and upstream fragmentation density explained some of the model's over-predictions. Local land use conditions explained some of the model's IBI under-predictions at the state-scale since none of the variables within this group were included in the best final predictive model. Under-predicted sites also had higher levels of downstream fragmentation. The proposed variables ranking and predictive modeling methodology is very well suited for the analysis of hierarchical environments, such as natural fresh water systems, with many cross-correlated environmental variables. It is computationally efficient, can be fully automated, does not make any pre-conceived assumptions on the variables interdependency structure (such as linearity), and it is able to rank variables in a database and generate IBI predictions using only non-parametric easy to implement hierarchical clustering. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposal of an environmental performance index to assess solid waste treatment technologies.

PubMed

Coelho, Hosmanny Mauro Goulart; Lange, Liséte Celina; Coelho, Lineker Max Goulart

2012-07-01

Although the concern with sustainable development and environment protection has considerably grown in the last years it is noted that the majority of decision making models and tools are still either excessively tied to economic aspects or geared to the production process. Moreover, existing models focus on the priority steps of solid waste management, beyond waste energy recovery and disposal. So, in order to help the lack of models and tools aiming at the waste treatment and final disposal, a new concept is proposed: the Cleaner Treatment, which is based on the Cleaner Production principles. This paper focuses on the development and validation of the Cleaner Treatment Index (CTI), to assess environmental performance of waste treatment technologies based on the Cleaner Treatment concept. The index is formed by aggregation (summation or product) of several indicators that consists in operational parameters. The weights of the indicator were established by Delphi Method and Brazilian Environmental Laws. In addition, sensitivity analyses were carried out comparing both aggregation methods. Finally, index validation was carried out by applying the CTI to 10 waste-to-energy plants data. From sensitivity analysis and validation results it is possible to infer that summation model is the most suitable aggregation method. For summation method, CTI results were superior to 0.5 (in a scale from 0 to 1) for most facilities evaluated. So, this study demonstrates that CTI is a simple and robust tool to assess and compare the environmental performance of different treatment plants being an excellent quantitative tool to support Cleaner Treatment implementation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental quality indicators and financial development in Malaysia: unity in diversity.

PubMed

Alam, Arif; Azam, Muhammad; Abdullah, Alias Bin; Malik, Ihtisham Abdul; Khan, Anwar; Hamzah, Tengku Adeline Adura Tengku; Faridullah; Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq; Zahoor, Hina; Zaman, Khalid

2015-06-01

Environmental quality indicators are crucial for responsive and cost-effective policies. The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between environmental quality indicators and financial development in Malaysia. For this purpose, the number of environmental quality indicators has been used, i.e., air pollution measured by carbon dioxide emissions, population density per square kilometer of land area, agricultural production measured by cereal production and livestock production, and energy resources considered by energy use and fossil fuel energy consumption, which placed an impact on the financial development of the country. The study used four main financial indicators, i.e., broad money supply (M2), domestic credit provided by the financial sector (DCFS), domestic credit to the private sector (DCPC), and inflation (CPI), which each financial indicator separately estimated with the environmental quality indicators, over a period of 1975-2013. The study used the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique to minimize the simultaneity from the model. The results show that carbon dioxide emissions exert the positive correlation with the M2, DCFC, and DCPC, while there is a negative correlation with the CPI. However, these results have been evaporated from the GMM estimates, where carbon emissions have no significant relationship with any of the four financial indicators in Malaysia. The GMM results show that population density has a negative relationship with the all four financial indicators; however, in case of M2, this relationship is insignificant to explain their result. Cereal production has a positive relationship with the DCPC, while there is a negative relationship with the CPI. Livestock production exerts the positive relationship with the all four financial indicators; however, this relationship with the CPI has a more elastic relationship, while the remaining relationship is less elastic with the three financial indicators in a country. Energy resources comprise energy use and fossil fuel energy consumption, both have distinct results with the financial indicators, as energy demand have a positive and significant relationship with the DCFC, DCPC, and CPI, while fossil fuel energy consumption have a negative relationship with these three financial indicators. The results of the study are of value to both environmentalists and policy makers.

Informed Decision Making Process for Managing Environmental Flows in Small River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padikkal, S.; Rema, K. P.

2013-03-01

Numerous examples exist worldwide of partial or complete alteration to the natural flow regime of river systems as a consequence of large scale water abstraction from upstream reaches. The effects may not be conspicuous in the case of very large rivers, but the ecosystems of smaller rivers or streams may be completely destroyed over a period of time. While restoration of the natural flow regime may not be possible, at present there is increased effort to implement restoration by regulating environmental flow. This study investigates the development of an environmental flow management model at an icon site in the small river basin of Bharathapuzha, west India. To determine optimal environmental flow regimes, a historic flow model based on data assimilated since 1978 indicated a satisfactory minimum flow depth for river ecosystem sustenance is 0.907 m (28.8 m3/s), a value also obtained from the hydraulic model; however, as three of the reservoirs were already operational at this time a flow depth of 0.922 m is considered a more viable estimate. Analysis of daily stream flow in 1997-2006, indicated adequate flow regimes during the monsoons in June-November, but that sections of the river dried out in December-May with alarming water quality conditions near the river mouth. Furthermore, the preferred minimum `dream' flow regime expressed by stakeholders of the region is a water depth of 1.548 m, which exceeds 50 % of the flood discharge in July. Water could potentially be conserved for environmental flow purposes by (1) the de-siltation of existing reservoirs or (2) reducing water spillage in the transfer between river basins. Ultimately environmental flow management of the region requires the establishment of a co-ordinated management body and the regular assimilation of water flow information from which science based decisions are made, to ensure both economic and environmental concerns are adequately addressed.

Affluence and objective environmental conditions: Evidence of differences in environmental concern in metropolitan Brazil

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Guedes, Gilvan; do Carmo, Roberto Luiz

2016-01-01

In an age of climate change, researchers need to form a deepened understanding of the determinants of environmental concern, particularly in countries of emerging economies. This paper provides a region-specific investigation of the impact of socio-economic status (SES) and objective environmental conditions on environmental concern in urban Brazil. We make use of data that were collected from personal interviews of individuals living in the metropolitan areas of Baixada Santista and Campinas, in the larger São Paulo area. Results from multilevel regression models indicate that wealthier households are more environmentally concerned, as suggested by affluence and post-materialist hypotheses. However, we also observe that increasing environmental concern correlates with a decline in objective environmental conditions. Interactions between objective environmental conditions and SES reveal some intriguing relationships: Among poorer individuals, a decline in environmental conditions increases environmental concern as suggested by the objective problems hypothesis, while for the wealthy, a decline in environmental conditions is associated with lower levels of environmental concern. PMID:27594931

Affluence and objective environmental conditions: Evidence of differences in environmental concern in metropolitan Brazil.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Guedes, Gilvan; do Carmo, Roberto Luiz

2014-04-01

In an age of climate change, researchers need to form a deepened understanding of the determinants of environmental concern, particularly in countries of emerging economies. This paper provides a region-specific investigation of the impact of socio-economic status (SES) and objective environmental conditions on environmental concern in urban Brazil. We make use of data that were collected from personal interviews of individuals living in the metropolitan areas of Baixada Santista and Campinas, in the larger São Paulo area. Results from multilevel regression models indicate that wealthier households are more environmentally concerned, as suggested by affluence and post-materialist hypotheses. However, we also observe that increasing environmental concern correlates with a decline in objective environmental conditions. Interactions between objective environmental conditions and SES reveal some intriguing relationships: Among poorer individuals, a decline in environmental conditions increases environmental concern as suggested by the objective problems hypothesis, while for the wealthy, a decline in environmental conditions is associated with lower levels of environmental concern.

Lack of congruence in species diversity indices and community structures of planktonic groups based on local environmental factors.

PubMed

Doi, Hideyuki; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon; Nishibe, Yuichiro; Imai, Hiroyuki; Nakano, Shin-ichi

2013-01-01

The importance of analyzing the determinants of biodiversity and community composition by using multiple trophic levels is well recognized; however, relevant data are lacking. In the present study, we investigated variations in species diversity indices and community structures of the plankton taxonomic groups-zooplankton, rotifers, ciliates, and phytoplankton-under a range of local environmental factors in pond ecosystems. For each planktonic group, we estimated the species diversity index by using linear models and analyzed the community structure by using canonical correspondence analysis. We showed that the species diversity indices and community structures varied among the planktonic groups and according to local environmental factors. The observed lack of congruence among the planktonic groups may have been caused by niche competition between groups with similar trophic guilds or by weak trophic interactions. Our findings highlight the difficulty of predicting total biodiversity within a system, based upon a single taxonomic group. Thus, to conserve the biodiversity of an ecosystem, it is crucial to consider variations in species diversity indices and community structures of different taxonomic groups, under a range of local conditions.

Response of benthic algae to environmental gradients in an agriculturally dominated landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munn, M.D.; Black, R.W.; Gruber, S.J.

2002-01-01

Benthic algal communities were assessed in an agriculturally dominated landscape in the Central Columbia Plateau, Washington, to determine which environmental variables best explained species distributions, and whether algae species optima models were useful in predicting specific water-quality parameters. Land uses in the study area included forest, range, urban, and agriculture. Most of the streams in this region can be characterized as open-channel systems influenced by intensive dryland (nonirrigated) and irrigated agriculture. Algal communities in forested streams were dominated by blue-green algae, with communities in urban and range streams dominated by diatoms. The predominance of either blue-greens or diatoms in agricultural streams varied greatly depending on the specific site. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated a strong gradient effect of several key environmental variables on benthic algal community composition. Conductivity and % agriculture were the dominant explanatory variables when all sites (n = 24) were included in the CCA; water velocity replaced conductivity when the CCA included only agricultural and urban sites. Other significant explanatory variables included dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), orthophosphate (OP), discharge, and precipitation. Regression and calibration models accurately predicted conductivity based on benthic algal communities, with OP having slightly lower predictability. The model for DIN was poor, and therefore may be less useful in this system. Thirty-four algal taxa were identified as potential indicators of conductivity and nutrient conditions, with most indicators being diatoms except for the blue-greens Anabaenasp. and Lyngbya sp.

Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with bird populations as habitat-specific environmental indicators: evidence from Canada.

PubMed

Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2008-04-01

The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis-namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.

A Critical Evaluation of Waste Incineration Plants in Wuhan (China) Based on Site Selection, Environmental Influence, Public Health and Public Participation

PubMed Central

Hu, Hui; Li, Xiang; Nguyen, Anh Dung; Kavan, Philip

2015-01-01

With the rapid development of the waste incineration industry in China, top priority has been given to the problem of pollution caused by waste incineration. This study is the first attempt to assess all the waste incineration plants in Wuhan, the only national key city in central China, in terms of environmental impact, site selection, public health and public participation. By using a multi-criterion assessment model for economic, social, public health and environmental effects, this study indicates these incineration plants are established without much consideration of the local residents’ health and environment. A location analysis is also applied and some influences of waste incineration plants are illustrated. This study further introduces a signaling game model to prove that public participation is a necessary condition for improving the environmental impact assessment and increasing total welfare of different interest groups in China. This study finally offers some corresponding recommendations for improving the environmental impact assessments of waste incineration projects. PMID:26184242

A Critical Evaluation of Waste Incineration Plants in Wuhan (China) Based on Site Selection, Environmental Influence, Public Health and Public Participation.

PubMed

Hu, Hui; Li, Xiang; Nguyen, Anh Dung; Kavan, Philip

2015-07-08

With the rapid development of the waste incineration industry in China, top priority has been given to the problem of pollution caused by waste incineration. This study is the first attempt to assess all the waste incineration plants in Wuhan, the only national key city in central China, in terms of environmental impact, site selection, public health and public participation. By using a multi-criterion assessment model for economic, social, public health and environmental effects, this study indicates these incineration plants are established without much consideration of the local residents' health and environment. A location analysis is also applied and some influences of waste incineration plants are illustrated. This study further introduces a signaling game model to prove that public participation is a necessary condition for improving the environmental impact assessment and increasing total welfare of different interest groups in China. This study finally offers some corresponding recommendations for improving the environmental impact assessments of waste incineration projects.

Estimation of environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay, Iran, via a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic model.

PubMed

Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

2016-11-01

Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea in Iran and is an important marine habitat for fish and seabirds. In the present study, the environmental capacity of phosphorus in Gorgan Bay was estimated using a 3D ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model and a linear programming model. The distribution of phosphorus, simulated by the numerical model, was used as an index for the occurrence of eutrophication and to determine the water quality response field of each of the pollution sources. The linear programming model was used to calculate and allocate the total maximum allowable loads of phosphorus to each of the pollution sources in a way that eutrophication be prevented and at the same time maximum environmental capacity be achieved. In addition, the effect of an artificial inlet on the environmental capacity of the bay was investigated. Observations of surface currents in Gorgan Bay were made by GPS-tracked surface drifters to provide data for calibration and verification of numerical modeling. Drifters were deployed at five different points across the bay over a period of 5 days. The results indicated that the annual environmental capacity of phosphorus is approximately 141 t if a concentration of 0.0477 mg/l for phosphorus is set as the water quality criterion. Creating an artificial inlet with a width of 1 km in the western part of the bay would result in a threefold increase in the environmental capacity of the study area.

Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts?

PubMed Central

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Messeri, Alessandro; Capecchi, Valerio; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (≥75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May–October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress. PMID:24523657

Environmental temperature and thermal indices: what is the most effective predictor of heat-related mortality in different geographical contexts?

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Messeri, Alessandro; Capecchi, Valerio; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (≥ 75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May-October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress.

Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region.

PubMed

Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei

2016-01-01

The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adults with autism overestimate the volatility of the sensory environment.

PubMed

Lawson, Rebecca P; Mathys, Christoph; Rees, Geraint

2017-09-01

Insistence on sameness and intolerance of change are among the diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but little research has addressed how people with ASD represent and respond to environmental change. Here, behavioral and pupillometric measurements indicated that adults with ASD are less surprised than neurotypical adults when their expectations are violated, and decreased surprise is predictive of greater symptom severity. A hierarchical Bayesian model of learning suggested that in ASD, a tendency to overlearn about volatility in the face of environmental change drives a corresponding reduction in learning about probabilistically aberrant events, thus putatively rendering these events less surprising. Participant-specific modeled estimates of surprise about environmental conditions were linked to pupil size in the ASD group, thus suggesting heightened noradrenergic responsivity in line with compromised neural gain. This study offers insights into the behavioral, algorithmic and physiological mechanisms underlying responses to environmental volatility in ASD.

Contributions of Genes and Environment to Developmental Change in Alcohol Use.

PubMed

Long, E C; Verhulst, B; Aggen, S H; Kendler, K S; Gillespie, N A

2017-09-01

The precise nature of how genetic and environmental risk factors influence changes in alcohol use (AU) over time has not yet been investigated. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the nature of longitudinal changes in these risk factors to AU from mid-adolescence through young adulthood. Using a large sample of male twins, we compared five developmental models that each makes different predictions regarding the longitudinal changes in genetic and environmental risks for AU. The best-fitting model indicated that genetic influences were consistent with a gradual growth in the liability to AU, whereas unique environmental risk factors were consistent with an accumulation of risks across time. These results imply that two distinct processes influence adolescent AU between the ages of 15-25. Genetic effects influence baseline levels of AU and rates of change across time, while unique environmental effects are more cumulative.

Preliminary assessment of factors influencing riverine fish communities in Massachusetts.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Brandt, Sara L.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (MDCR), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MDEP), and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game (MDFG), conducted a preliminary investigation of fish communities in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this investigation was to determine relations between fish-community characteristics and anthropogenic alteration, including flow alteration and impervious cover, relative to the effect of physical basin and land-cover (environmental) characteristics. Fish data were obtained for 756 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select a set of fish metrics responsive to flow alteration. Fish metrics tested include two fish-community metrics (fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness), and five indicator species metrics (relative abundance of brook trout, blacknose dace, fallfish, white sucker, and redfin pickerel). Streamflows were simulated for each fish-sampling site using the Sustainable Yield Estimator application (SYE). Daily streamflows and the SYE water-use database were used to determine a set of indicators of flow alteration, including percent alteration of August median flow, water-use intensity, and withdrawal and return-flow fraction. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine a set of environmental characteristics, including elevation, basin slope, percent sand and gravel, percent wetland, and percent open water, and a set of anthropogenic-alteration variables, including impervious cover and dam density. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to determine the association between fish-response variables and the selected environmental and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Quantile regression indicated that flow alteration and impervious cover were negatively associated with both fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness. Three generalized linear models (GLMs) were developed to quantify the response of fish communities to multiple environmental and anthropogenic variables. Flow-alteration variables are statistically significant for the fluvial-fish relative-abundance model. Impervious cover is statistically significant for the fluvial-fish relative-abundance, fluvial-fish species richness, and brook trout relative-abundance models. The variables in the equations were demonstrated to be significant, and the variability explained by the models, as measured by the correlation between observed and predicted values, ranges from 39 to 65 percent. The GLM models indicated that, keeping all other variables the same, a one-unit (1 percent) increase in the percent depletion or percent surcharging of August median flow would result in a 0.4-percent decrease in the relative abundance (in counts per hour) of fluvial fish and that the relative abundance of fluvial fish was expected to be about 55 percent lower in net-depleted streams than in net-surcharged streams. The GLM models also indicated that a unit increase in impervious cover resulted in a 5.5-percent decrease in the relative abundance of fluvial fish and a 2.5-percent decrease in fluvial-fish species richness.

A quantitative model to assess Social Responsibility in Environmental Science and Technology.

PubMed

Valcárcel, M; Lucena, R

2014-01-01

The awareness of the impact of human activities in society and environment is known as "Social Responsibility" (SR). It has been a topic of growing interest in many enterprises since the fifties of the past Century, and its implementation/assessment is nowadays supported by international standards. There is a tendency to amplify its scope of application to other areas of the human activities, such as Research, Development and Innovation (R + D + I). In this paper, a model of quantitative assessment of Social Responsibility in Environmental Science and Technology (SR EST) is described in detail. This model is based on well established written standards as the EFQM Excellence model and the ISO 26000:2010 Guidance on SR. The definition of five hierarchies of indicators, the transformation of qualitative information into quantitative data and the dual procedure of self-evaluation and external evaluation are the milestones of the proposed model, which can be applied to Environmental Research Centres and institutions. In addition, a simplified model that facilitates its implementation is presented in the article. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential climate change impacts on four biophysical indicators of cattle production from western US rangelands

Treesearch

Matthew Clark Reeves; Karen E. Bagne; John Tanaka

2017-01-01

We examined multiple environmental factors related to climate change that affect cattle production on rangelands to identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions of the western United States. Climate change effects were projected to 2100 using published spatially explicit model output for four indicators of vulnerability: forage quantity, vegetation type...

[Relationship between water supply, sanitation, public health, and environment: elements for the formulation of a sanitary infrastructure planning model].

PubMed

Soares, Sérgio R A; Bernardes, Ricardo S; Netto, Oscar de M Cordeiro

2002-01-01

The understanding of sanitation infrastructure, public health, and environmental relations is a fundamental assumption for planning sanitation infrastructure in urban areas. This article thus suggests elements for developing a planning model for sanitation infrastructure. The authors performed a historical survey of environmental and public health issues related to the sector, an analysis of the conceptual frameworks involving public health and sanitation systems, and a systematization of the various effects that water supply and sanitation have on public health and the environment. Evaluation of these effects should guarantee the correct analysis of possible alternatives, deal with environmental and public health objectives (the main purpose of sanitation infrastructure), and provide the most reasonable indication of actions. The suggested systematization of the sanitation systems effects in each step of their implementation is an advance considering the association between the fundamental elements for formulating a planning model for sanitation infrastructure.

How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system.

PubMed

O'Regan, Suzanne M

2018-12-01

Anticipating critical transitions in spatially extended systems is a key topic of interest to ecologists. Gradually declining metapopulations are an important example of a spatially extended biological system that may exhibit a critical transition. Theory for spatially extended systems approaching extinction that accounts for environmental stochasticity and coupling is currently lacking. Here, we develop spatially implicit two-patch models with additive and multiplicative forms of environmental stochasticity that are slowly forced through population collapse, through changing environmental conditions. We derive patch-specific expressions for candidate indicators of extinction and test their performance via a simulation study. Coupling and spatial heterogeneities decrease the magnitude of the proposed indicators in coupled populations relative to isolated populations, and the noise regime and the degree of coupling together determine trends in summary statistics. This theory may be readily applied to other spatially extended ecological systems, such as coupled infectious disease systems on the verge of elimination.

Examination of the Relationship between In-Store Environmental Factors and Fruit and Vegetable Purchasing among Hispanics

PubMed Central

Sanchez-Flack, Jennifer; Pickrel, Julie L.; Belch, George; Lin, Shih-Fan; Anderson, Cheryl A. M.; Martinez, Maria Elena; Arredondo, Elva M.; Ayala, Guadalupe X.

2017-01-01

Retail food environments have received attention for their influence on dietary behaviors and for their nutrition intervention potential. To improve diet-related behaviors, such as fruit and vegetable (FV) purchasing, it is important to examine its relationship with in-store environmental characteristics. This study used baseline data from the “El Valor de Nuestra Salud” study to examine how in-store environmental characteristics, such as product availability, placement and promotion, were associated with FV purchasing among Hispanic customers in San Diego County. Mixed linear regression models indicated that greater availability of fresh FVs was associated with a $0.36 increase in FV purchasing (p = 0.01). Placement variables, specifically each additional square foot of display space dedicated to FVs (p = 0.01) and each additional fresh FV display (p = 0.01), were associated with a $0.02 increase and $0.29 decrease, respectively, in FV purchasing. Introducing FV promotions in the final model was not related to FV purchasing. Exploratory analyses indicated that men reported spending $3.69 fewer dollars on FVs compared to women, controlling for covariates (p = 0.02). These results can help inform interventions targeting in-store environmental characteristics to encourage FV purchasing among Hispanics. PMID:29077075

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

PubMed

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does foreign direct investment affect environmental pollution in China's cities? A spatial econometric perspective.

PubMed

Liu, Qianqian; Wang, Shaojian; Zhang, Wenzhong; Zhan, Dongsheng; Li, Jiaming

2018-02-01

Environmental pollution has aroused extensive concern worldwide. Existing literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and environmental pollution has, however, seldom taken into account spatial effects. Addressing this gap, this paper investigated the spatial agglomeration effects and dynamics at work in FDI and environmental pollution (namely, in waste soot and dust, sulfur dioxide, and wastewater) in 285 Chinese cities during the period 2003-2014, using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation. Our results showed significant spatial autocorrelation in FDI and environmental pollution levels, both of which demonstrated obvious path dependence characteristics in their geographical distribution. A range of agglomeration regions were observed. The high-value and low-value agglomeration areas of FDI were not fully consistent with those of environmental pollution. This result indicates that higher inflows of FDI did not necessarily lead to greater environmental pollution from a geographic perspective, and vice versa. Spatial panel data models were further adopted to explore the impact of FDI on environmental pollution. The results of a spatial lag model (SLM) and a spatial error model (SEM) revealed that the inflow of FDI had distinct effects on different environmental pollutants, thereby confirming the Pollution Heaven Hypothesis and Pollution Halo Hypothesis. The inflow of FDI was found to have reduced waste soot and dust pollution to a certain extent, while it increased the degree of wastewater and sulfur dioxide pollution. The findings set out in this paper hold significant implications for Chinese environmental pollution protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine-scale habitat modeling of a top marine predator: do prey data improve predictive capacity?

PubMed

Torres, Leigh G; Read, Andrew J; Halpin, Patrick

2008-10-01

Predators and prey assort themselves relative to each other, the availability of resources and refuges, and the temporal and spatial scale of their interaction. Predictive models of predator distributions often rely on these relationships by incorporating data on environmental variability and prey availability to determine predator habitat selection patterns. This approach to predictive modeling holds true in marine systems where observations of predators are logistically difficult, emphasizing the need for accurate models. In this paper, we ask whether including prey distribution data in fine-scale predictive models of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) habitat selection in Florida Bay, Florida, U.S.A., improves predictive capacity. Environmental characteristics are often used as predictor variables in habitat models of top marine predators with the assumption that they act as proxies of prey distribution. We examine the validity of this assumption by comparing the response of dolphin distribution and fish catch rates to the same environmental variables. Next, the predictive capacities of four models, with and without prey distribution data, are tested to determine whether dolphin habitat selection can be predicted without recourse to describing the distribution of their prey. The final analysis determines the accuracy of predictive maps of dolphin distribution produced by modeling areas of high fish catch based on significant environmental characteristics. We use spatial analysis and independent data sets to train and test the models. Our results indicate that, due to high habitat heterogeneity and the spatial variability of prey patches, fine-scale models of dolphin habitat selection in coastal habitats will be more successful if environmental variables are used as predictor variables of predator distributions rather than relying on prey data as explanatory variables. However, predictive modeling of prey distribution as the response variable based on environmental variability did produce high predictive performance of dolphin habitat selection, particularly foraging habitat.

GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

PubMed

Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

2009-07-01

Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

Ocean Color Products Supporting the Assessment of Good Environmental Status: Development of a Spatial Distribution Model for the Seagrass Posidonia Oceanica (L.) Delille, 1813

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zucchetta, M.; Taji, M. A.; Mangin, A.; Pastres, R.

2015-12-01

Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile, 1813 is a seagrass species endemic to the Mediterranean Sea, which is considered as one of the key habitats of the coastal areas. This species forms large meadows sensitive to several anthropogenic pressures, that can be regarded as indicators of environment quality in coastal environments and its distributional patterns should be take into account when evaluating the Environmental Status following the Ecosystem approach promoted by the Mediterranean Action Plan of UNEP and the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). The aim of this study was to develop a Species Distribution Model for P. oceanica, to be applied to the whole Mediterranean North African coast, in order to obtain an estimation of the potential distribution of this species in the region to be considered as an indicator for the assessment of good Environmental Status. As the study area is a data-poor zone with regard to seagrass distribution (i.e. only for some areas detailed distribution maps are available), the Species Distribution Model (SDM) was calibrated using high resolution data from 5 Mediterranean sites, located in Italy and Spain and validated using available data from the North African coast. Usually, when developing SDMs species occupancy data is available at coarser resolution than the information of environmental variables, and thus has to be downscaled at the appropriate grain to be coupled to the environmental conditions. Tackling the case of P. oceanica we had to face the opposite problem: the quality (in terms of resolution) of the information on seagrass distribution is generally very high compared to the environmental data available over large scale in marine domains (e.g. global bathymetry data). The high resolution application and the model transfer (from calibration areas to North African coast) was possible taking advantage of Ocean Color products: the probability of presence of the species in a given area was modelled using a binomial generalized linear model as a function of the bathymetry and some water characteristics mainly obtained from satellite data. Full resolution (c.a. 300m) Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) sensor imagery have been processed in order to extract a set of environmental variables to be coupled to seagrass distribution in the areas used to calibrate the model and for the whole North Africa coast (i.e. model application area). For the period 2003-2011 we processed data of: 1) the diffuse attenuation coefficient 2) coloured dissolved organic matter 3) Particle backscatter at 443nm; 4) Euphotic depth, estimated considering the coefficient of extinction of light; 5) Euphotic depth/ depth ratio, combining the estimation of euphotic depth with the bathymetry. Other variables have been resampled at MERIS full resolution, like data obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Sea Surface Temperature and Photosynthetically Available Radiation) or by model simulation (e.g. water salinity). The fitted model suggests that water transparency plays a major role, but also other variables, such as salinity and photosynthetically available radiation at surface, are important at larger spatial scales in explaining meadows distribution. The availability of high resolution time-series of input data allowed us to apply the validated model to the whole NA coast. Using model predictions to identify areas with suitable conditions for P. oceanica, it was possible to develop an indicator of potential habitat use and to define baseline reference conditions, necessary for the assessment of Good Environmental Status in Mediterranean coastal waters. This work shows how the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) within the Sentinel-3 mission can be exploited - thanks to the way opened by MERIS - to carry out the operational monitoring needed for the implementation of the UNEP MAP and EU MSFD Ecosystem Approach to the integrated management of land, water and living resources.

Multiscale landscape genomic models to detect signatures of selection in the alpine plant Biscutella laevigata.

PubMed

Leempoel, Kevin; Parisod, Christian; Geiser, Céline; Joost, Stéphane

2018-02-01

Plant species are known to adapt locally to their environment, particularly in mountainous areas where conditions can vary drastically over short distances. The climate of such landscapes being largely influenced by topography, using fine-scale models to evaluate environmental heterogeneity may help detecting adaptation to micro-habitats. Here, we applied a multiscale landscape genomic approach to detect evidence of local adaptation in the alpine plant Biscutella laevigata . The two gene pools identified, experiencing limited gene flow along a 1-km ridge, were different in regard to several habitat features derived from a very high resolution (VHR) digital elevation model (DEM). A correlative approach detected signatures of selection along environmental gradients such as altitude, wind exposure, and solar radiation, indicating adaptive pressures likely driven by fine-scale topography. Using a large panel of DEM-derived variables as ecologically relevant proxies, our results highlighted the critical role of spatial resolution. These high-resolution multiscale variables indeed indicate that the robustness of associations between genetic loci and environmental features depends on spatial parameters that are poorly documented. We argue that the scale issue is critical in landscape genomics and that multiscale ecological variables are key to improve our understanding of local adaptation in highly heterogeneous landscapes.

Optimising The Available Scarce Water Resources At European Scale In A Modelling Environment: Results And Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Gentile, Alessandro; Udias, Angel; Bouraoui, Faycal

2013-04-01

As a next step to European drought monitoring and forecasting, which is covered in the European Drought Observatory (EDO) activity of JRC, a modeling environment has been developed to assess optimum measures to match water availability and water demand, while keeping ecological, water quality and flood risk aspects also into account. A multi-modelling environment has been developed to assess combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. These simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of those measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, low-flow frequency, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the public sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. This modeling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the land use LUMP model, the water quantity LISFLOOD model, the water quality EPIC model, the combined water quantity/quality and hydro-economic LISQUAL model and a multi-criteria optimization routine. A python interface platform (IMO) has been built to link the different models. The work was carried out in the framework of a new European Commission policy document "Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources", COM(2012)673), launched in November 2012. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study has shown that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios. First results and challenges will be presented and discussed.

Environmental implications of anaerobic digestion for manure management in dairy farms in Mexico: a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

Rivas-García, Pasiano; Botello-Álvarez, José E; Abel Seabra, Joaquim E; da Silva Walter, Arnaldo C; Estrada-Baltazar, Alejandro

2015-01-01

The environmental profile of milk production in Mexico was analysed for three manure management scenarios: fertilization (F), anaerobic digestion (AD) and enhanced anaerobic digestion (EAD). The study used the life cycle assessment (LCA) technique, considering a 'cradle-to-gate' approach. The assessment model was constructed using SimaPro LCA software, and the life cycle impact assessment was performed according to the ReCiPe method. Dairy farms with AD and EAD scenarios were found to exhibit, respectively, 12% and 27% less greenhouse gas emissions, 58% and 31% less terrestrial acidification, and 3% and 18% less freshwater eutrophication than the F scenario. A different trend was observed in the damage to resource availability indicator, as the F scenario presented 6% and 22% less damage than the EAD and AD scenarios, respectively. The magnitude of environmental damage from milk production in the three dairy manure management scenarios, using a general single score indicator, was 0.118, 0.107 and 0.081 Pt/L of milk for the F, AD and EAD scenarios, respectively. These results indicate that manure management systems with anaerobic digestion can improve the environmental profile of each litre of milk produced.

Economic growth and environmental pollution in Myanmar: an analysis of environmental Kuznets curve.

PubMed

Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Saboori, Behnaz; Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan

2017-09-01

This empirical study examines the short- and long-run relationship between GDP as an economic growth indicator and CO 2 emissions as an environmental pollution indicator in Myanmar by using annual time series data over the period of 1970-2014. It also carefully considered other proxies, such as trade openness, financial openness and urbanization, and structural breaks in the country. The fundamental objective of this study is to test the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the context of Myanmar. The dynamic estimates of the long- and short-term relationship among greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O), GDP, trade intensity, financial openness, and urbanization growth are built through an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The empirical findings indicate that there is positive short- and long-run relationship between CO 2 and GDP and thus, no evidence of EKC hypothesis is found for CO 2 in Myanmar. Nevertheless, the existence of the EKC is observed for CH 4 and N 2 O. On the other hand, trade and financial openness have inverse relationship with CO 2 emissions. These results demonstrate that trade liberalization and financial openness will improve the environment quality in Myanmar in the long run.

Environmental fate and effects of nicotine released during cigarette production.

PubMed

Seckar, Joel A; Stavanja, Mari S; Harp, Paul R; Yi, Yongsheng; Garner, Charles D; Doi, Jon

2008-07-01

A variety of test methods were used to study the gradation, bioaccumulation, and toxicity of nicotine. Studies included determination of the octanol-water partition coefficient, conversion to CO2 in soil and activated sludge, and evaluation of the effects on microbiological and algal inhibition as well as plant germination and root elongation. The partitioning of nicotine between octanol and water indicated that nicotine will not bioaccumulate regardless of the pH of the medium. The aqueous and soil-based biodegradation studies indicated that nicotine is readily biodegradable in both types of media. The microbiological inhibition and aquatic and terrestrial toxicity tests indicated that nicotine has low toxicity. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Persistence, Bioaccumulation, and Toxicity Profiler model, based on the structure of nicotine and the predictive rates of hydroxyl radical and ozone reactions, estimated an atmospheric half-life of less than 5.0 h. Using this value in the Canadian Environmental Modeling Center level III model, the half-life of nicotine was estimated as 3.0 d in water and 0.5 d in soil. This model also estimated nicotine discharge into the environment; nicotine would be expected to be found predominantly in water (93%), followed by soil (4%), air (3%), and sediment (0.4%). Using the estimated nicotine concentrations in water, soil, and sediment and the proper median effective concentrations derived from the algal growth, biomass inhibition, and buttercrunch lettuce (Lactuca sativa) seed germination and root elongation studies, hazard quotients of between 10(-7) and 10(-8) were calculated, providing further support for the conclusion that the potential for nicotine toxicity to aquatic and terrestrial species in the environment is extremely low.

High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association.

PubMed

Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S

2017-09-01

With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an F ST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating malaria surveillance with climate data for outbreak detection and forecasting: the EPIDEMIA system.

PubMed

Merkord, Christopher L; Liu, Yi; Mihretie, Abere; Gebrehiwot, Teklehaymanot; Awoke, Worku; Bayabil, Estifanos; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Kassa, Gebeyaw T; Lake, Mastewal; Wimberly, Michael C

2017-02-23

Early indication of an emerging malaria epidemic can provide an opportunity for proactive interventions. Challenges to the identification of nascent malaria epidemics include obtaining recent epidemiological surveillance data, spatially and temporally harmonizing this information with timely data on environmental precursors, applying models for early detection and early warning, and communicating results to public health officials. Automated web-based informatics systems can provide a solution to these problems, but their implementation in real-world settings has been limited. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system was designed and implemented to integrate disease surveillance with environmental monitoring in support of operational malaria forecasting in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. A co-design workshop was held with computer scientists, epidemiological modelers, and public health partners to develop an initial list of system requirements. Subsequent updates to the system were based on feedback obtained from system evaluation workshops and assessments conducted by a steering committee of users in the public health sector. The system integrated epidemiological data uploaded weekly by the Amhara Regional Health Bureau with remotely-sensed environmental data freely available from online archives. Environmental data were acquired and processed automatically by the EASTWeb software program. Additional software was developed to implement a public health interface for data upload and download, harmonize the epidemiological and environmental data into a unified database, automatically update time series forecasting models, and generate formatted reports. Reporting features included district-level control charts and maps summarizing epidemiological indicators of emerging malaria outbreaks, environmental risk factors, and forecasts of future malaria risk. Successful implementation and use of EPIDEMIA is an important step forward in the use of epidemiological and environmental informatics systems for malaria surveillance. Developing software to automate the workflow steps while remaining robust to continual changes in the input data streams was a key technical challenge. Continual stakeholder involvement throughout design, implementation, and operation has created a strong enabling environment that will facilitate the ongoing development, application, and testing of the system.

Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

PubMed Central

Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

2010-01-01

The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

A multi-objective assessment of an air quality monitoring network using environmental, economic, and social indicators and GIS-based models.

PubMed

Pope, Ronald; Wu, Jianguo

2014-06-01

In the United States, air pollution is primarily measured by Air Quality Monitoring Networks (AQMN). These AQMNs have multiple objectives, including characterizing pollution patterns, protecting the public health, and determining compliance with air quality standards. In 2006, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a directive that air pollution agencies assess the performance of their AQMNs. Although various methods to design and assess AQMNs exist, here we demonstrate a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach that combines environmental, economic, and social indicators through the assessment of the ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) networks in Maricopa County, Arizona. The assessment was conducted in three phases: (1) to evaluate the performance of the existing networks, (2) to identify areas that would benefit from the addition of new monitoring stations, and (3) to recommend changes to the AQMN. A comprehensive set of indicators was created for evaluating differing aspects of the AQMNs' objectives, and weights were applied to emphasize important indicators. Indicators were also classified according to their sustainable development goal. Our results showed that O3 was well represented in the county with some redundancy in terms of the urban monitors. The addition of weights to the indicators only had a minimal effect on the results. For O3, urban monitors had greater social scores, while rural monitors had greater environmental scores. The results did not suggest a need for adding more O3 monitoring sites. For PM10, clustered urban monitors were redundant, and weights also had a minimal effect on the results. The clustered urban monitors had overall low scores; sites near point sources had high environmental scores. Several areas were identified as needing additional PM10 monitors. This study demonstrates the usefulness of a multi-indicator approach to assess AQMNs. Network managers and planners may use this method to assess the performance of air quality monitoring networks in urban regions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a directive in 2006 that air pollution agencies assess the performance of their AQMNs; as a result, we developed a GIS-based, multi-objective assessment approach that integrates environmental, economic, and social indicators, and demonstrates its use through assessing the O3 and PM10 monitoring networks in the Phoenix metropolitan area. We exhibit a method of assessing network performance and identifying areas that would benefit from new monitoring stations; also, we demonstrate the effect of adding weights to the indicators. Our study shows that using a multi-indicator approach gave detailed assessment results for the Phoenix AQMN.

A model for health education.

PubMed

el-Katsha, S; Watts, S

1994-01-01

A model for health education has been devised in Egypt on the basis of studies made in two villages. Its purpose is to contribute to the solution of environmental health problems by using locally available resources. Present indications are that the model will be applicable not only to the different sectors of the population, e.g., women and children, but also to many other villages throughout the country.

Where You Live Matters: Localising Environmental Impacts on Health, Nutrition and Poverty in Cambodia Using Small Area Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.

2016-12-01

Socioeconomic development depends on local environments. However, the scientific evidence quantifying the impact of environmental factors on health, nutrition and poverty at subnational levels is limited. This is because socioeconomic indicators are derived from sample surveys representative only at aggregate levels compared to environmental variables mostly available in high-resolution grids. Cambodia was selected because of its commitment to development in the context of a rapidly deteriorating environment. Having made considerable progress since 2005, access to health services is limited, a quarter of the population is still poor and 40% rural children are malnourished. Cambodia is also facing considerable environmental challenges including high deforestation rates, land degradation and natural hazards. Addressing existing gaps in the knowledge of environmental impacts on health and livelihoods, this study applies small area estimation (SAE) to quantify health, nutritional and poverty outcomes in the context of local environments. SAE produces reliable subnational estimates of socioeconomic outcomes available only from sample surveys by combining them with information from auxiliary sources (census). A model is used to explain common trades across areas and a random effect structure is applied to explain the observed extra heterogeneity. SAE models predicting health, nutrition and poverty outcomes excluding and including contextual environmental variables on natural hazards vulnerability, forest cover, climate, and agricultural production are compared. Results are mapped at regional and district levels to spatially assess the impacts of environmental variation on the outcomes. Inter and intra-regional inequalities are also estimated to examine the efficacy of health/socioeconomic policy targeting based on geographic location. Preliminary results suggest that localised environmental factors have considerable impacts on the indicators estimated and should therefore not be ignored. While there are large regional differences, pockets of malnutrition, poverty and inequitable health outcomes within regions are identified. The inequality decomposition shows under and over-coverage of geographical targeting when environmental factors are taken into account.

Dependence of RNA:DNA ratios and Fulton’s K condition indices on environmental characteristics of plaice and dab nursery grounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Raedemaecker, F.; Brophy, D.; O'Connor, I.; O'Neill, B.

2012-02-01

This field study showed a lack of a correlation between a morphometric (Fulton's K) and biochemical (RNA:DNA ratio) condition index in juvenile plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa) and dab ( Limanda limanda) studied to assess habitat quality in four sandy beach nursery grounds in Galway Bay, Ireland. Based on monthly surveys from June to September in 2008 and 2009, fish growth, indicated by RNA:DNA ratios and Fulton's K, displayed considerable spatio-temporal variability. Site-related patterns in Fulton's K for plaice and dab were consistent between years whereas RNA:DNA ratios displayed annual and interspecific variability among nursery habitats. This indicates a higher sensitivity of RNA:DNA ratios to short-term environmental fluctuations which is not apparent in Fulton's K measurements of juvenile flatfish. Generalized Additive Modelling (GAM) revealed non-linear relationships between the condition indices and (biotic and abiotic) habitat characteristics as well as diet features, derived from gut content analyses. Density of predators, sediment grain size and salinity were the most important predictors of both condition indices. Temperature also affected condition indices in dab whereas plaice condition indices varied with depth. Diet features did not contribute to the explained variability in the models predicting RNA:DNA ratios whereas certain prey groups significantly improved the explained variability in the models predicting Fulton's K of plaice and dab. The value of both indices for assessing fish condition and habitat quality in field studies is discussed. These findings aid understanding of the biological and physical mechanisms promoting fast growth and high survival which will help to identify high quality nursery areas for juvenile plaice and dab.

Socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Dale, Pat; McMichael, Anthony J; Tong, Shilu

2009-02-01

To assess the socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992-2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio-environmental predictors of BFV transmission. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0-2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (beta = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (beta = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (beta = -0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi

This study explores the interactions between climate and thermoelectric generation in the U.S. by coupling an Earth System Model with a thermoelectric power generation model. We validated model simulations of power production for selected power plants (~44% of existing thermoelectric capacity) against reported values. In addition, we projected future usable capacity for existing power plants under two different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average thermoelectric generating capacity by 2%-3% by the 2060s. Reductions up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. This study concludes that the impactmore » of climate change on the U.S. thermoelectric power system is less than previous estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially-disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. This work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs in which the operation of power plants are managed, and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.« less

[Structural Equation Modeling on Smoking Cessation Intention in Male Technical High School Students].

PubMed

Do, Eun Su; Choi, Eunsuk

2017-04-01

This study was done to develop and test a structural model on smoking cessation intention in technical high school men. The conceptual model was based on the theory of reasoned action and health promotion model. From May 29 to April 13, 2015, 413 technical high school students who smoked completed a structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed to calculate the direct and indirect effects of factors affecting smoking cessation intention. The SPSS WIN 20.0 and AMOS 21.0 programs were used. The hypothetical model was a good fit for the data. The model fit indices were χ²/df=2.36, GFI=.95, AGFI=.92, NFI=0.97, and RMSEA=.05. Self-esteem had direct and indirect effects on smoking cessation intention. Attitude, subjective norm, and self-efficacy had direct effects on smoking cessation intention. Smoking knowledge and environmental factor had indirect effects on smoking cessation intention. This model explained 87.0% of the variance in smoking cessation intention. These results indicate that technical high school students' intention to stop smoking can be improved through an increase in self-esteem, negative environmental factors, attitude toward smoking cessation, subjective norm about smoking cessation, and self-efficacy for smoking cessation. © 2017 Korean Society of Nursing Science

Additive Interaction between Heterogeneous Environmental Quality Domains (Air, Water, Land, Sociodemographic, and Built Environment) on Preterm Birth.

PubMed

Grabich, Shannon C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Jagai, Jyotsna S; Jian, Yun; Messer, Lynne C; Lobdell, Danelle T

2016-01-01

Environmental exposures often occur in tandem; however, epidemiological research often focuses on singular exposures. Statistical interactions among broad, well-characterized environmental domains have not yet been evaluated in association with health. We address this gap by conducting a county-level cross-sectional analysis of interactions between Environmental Quality Index (EQI) domain indices on preterm birth in the Unites States from 2000 to 2005. The EQI, a county-level index constructed for the 2000-2005 time period, was constructed from five domain-specific indices (air, water, land, built, and sociodemographic) using principal component analyses. County-level preterm birth rates ( n  = 3141) were estimated using live births from the National Center for Health Statistics. Linear regression was used to estimate prevalence differences (PDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing worse environmental quality to the better quality for each model for (a) each individual domain main effect, (b) the interaction contrast, and (c) the two main effects plus interaction effect (i.e., the "net effect") to show departure from additivity for the all U.S. counties. Analyses were also performed for subgroupings by four urban/rural strata. We found the suggestion of antagonistic interactions but no synergism, along with several purely additive (i.e., no interaction) associations. In the non-stratified model, we observed antagonistic interactions, between the sociodemographic/air domains [net effect (i.e., the association, including main effects and interaction effects) PD: -0.004 (95% CI: -0.007, 0.000), interaction contrast: -0.013 (95% CI: -0.020, -0.007)] and built/air domains [net effect PD: 0.008 (95% CI 0.004, 0.011), interaction contrast: -0.008 (95% CI: -0.015, -0.002)]. Most interactions were between the air domain and other respective domains. Interactions differed by urbanicity, with more interactions observed in non-metropolitan regions. Observed antagonistic associations may indicate that those living in areas with multiple detrimental domains may have other interfering factors reducing the burden of environmental exposure. This study is the first to explore interactions across different environmental domains and demonstrates the utility of the EQI to examine the relationship between environmental domain interactions and human health. While we did observe some departures from additivity, many observed effects were additive. This study demonstrated that interactions between environmental domains should be considered in future analyses.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

A participative approach to develop sustainability indicators for dehesa agroforestry farms.

PubMed

Escribano, M; Díaz-Caro, C; Mesias, F J

2018-05-29

This paper provides a list of specific indicators that will allow the managers of dehesa farms to assess their sustainability in an easy and reliable way. To this end a Delphi analysis has been carried out with a group of experts in agroforestry systems and sustainability. A total of 30 experts from public institutions, farming, research bodies, environmental and rural development associations, agricultural organizations and companies took part in the study which intended to design a set of sustainability indicators adapted to dehesa agroforestry systems. The experts scored 83 original indicators related to the basic pillars of sustainability (environmental, social and economic) through a two-round procedure. Finally, 24 indicators were selected based on their importance and the consensus achieved. From an environmental point of view, and in line with its significance for dehesa ecosystems, it has been observed that "Stocking rate" is the indicator with greater relevance. Within the economic pillar, "Farm profitability" is the most important indicator, while regarding the technical indicators "Percentage of animal diet based on grazing" is the one that got the highest score. Finally, the "Degree of job satisfaction" and the "Generational renewal" were the most relevant labor indicators. It is considered that the Delphi approach used in this research settles some of the flaws of other sustainability models, such as the adaptation to the system to be studied and the involvement of stakeholders in the design. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

Identification of Hot Moments and Hot Spots for Real-Time Adaptive Control of Multi-scale Environmental Sensor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wietsma, T.; Minsker, B. S.

2012-12-01

Increased sensor throughput combined with decreasing hardware costs has led to a disruptive growth in data volume. This disruption, popularly termed "the data deluge," has placed new demands for cyberinfrastructure and information technology skills among researchers in many academic fields, including the environmental sciences. Adaptive sampling has been well established as an effective means of improving network resource efficiency (energy, bandwidth) without sacrificing sample set quality relative to traditional uniform sampling. However, using adaptive sampling for the explicit purpose of improving resolution over events -- situations displaying intermittent dynamics and unique hydrogeological signatures -- is relatively new. In this paper, we define hot spots and hot moments in terms of sensor signal activity as measured through discrete Fourier analysis. Following this frequency-based approach, we apply the Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem, a fundamental contribution from signal processing that led to the field of information theory, for analysis of uni- and multivariate environmental signal data. In the scope of multi-scale environmental sensor networks, we present several sampling control algorithms, derived from the Nyquist-Shannon theorem, that operate at local (field sensor), regional (base station for aggregation of field sensor data), and global (Cloud-based, computationally intensive models) scales. Evaluated over soil moisture data, results indicate significantly greater sample density during precipitation events while reducing overall sample volume. Using these algorithms as indicators rather than control mechanisms, we also discuss opportunities for spatio-temporal modeling as a tool for planning/modifying sensor network deployments. Locally adaptive model based on Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem Pareto frontiers for local, regional, and global models relative to uniform sampling. Objectives are (1) overall sampling efficiency and (2) sampling efficiency during hot moments as identified using heuristic approach.

Informing the Human Plasma Protein Binding of Environmental Chemicals by Machine Learning in the Pharmaceutical Space: Applicability Domain and Limits of Predictability.

PubMed

Ingle, Brandall L; Veber, Brandon C; Nichols, John W; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio

2016-11-28

The free fraction of a xenobiotic in plasma (F ub ) is an important determinant of chemical adsorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination, and toxicity, yet experimental plasma protein binding data are scarce for environmentally relevant chemicals. The presented work explores the merit of utilizing available pharmaceutical data to predict F ub for environmentally relevant chemicals via machine learning techniques. Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were constructed with k nearest neighbors (kNN), support vector machines (SVM), and random forest (RF) machine learning algorithms from a training set of 1045 pharmaceuticals. The models were then evaluated with independent test sets of pharmaceuticals (200 compounds) and environmentally relevant ToxCast chemicals (406 total, in two groups of 238 and 168 compounds). The selection of a minimal feature set of 10-15 2D molecular descriptors allowed for both informative feature interpretation and practical applicability domain assessment via a bounded box of descriptor ranges and principal component analysis. The diverse pharmaceutical and environmental chemical sets exhibit similarities in terms of chemical space (99-82% overlap), as well as comparable bias and variance in constructed learning curves. All the models exhibit significant predictability with mean absolute errors (MAE) in the range of 0.10-0.18F ub . The models performed best for highly bound chemicals (MAE 0.07-0.12), neutrals (MAE 0.11-0.14), and acids (MAE 0.14-0.17). A consensus model had the highest accuracy across both pharmaceuticals (MAE 0.151-0.155) and environmentally relevant chemicals (MAE 0.110-0.131). The inclusion of the majority of the ToxCast test sets within the AD of the consensus model, coupled with high prediction accuracy for these chemicals, indicates the model provides a QSAR for F ub that is broadly applicable to both pharmaceuticals and environmentally relevant chemicals.

Openness as a buffer against cognitive decline: The Openness-Fluid-Crystallized-Intelligence (OFCI) model applied to late adulthood.

PubMed

Ziegler, Matthias; Cengia, Anja; Mussel, Patrick; Gerstorf, Denis

2015-09-01

Explaining cognitive decline in late adulthood is a major research area. Models using personality traits as possible influential variables are rare. This study tested assumptions based on an adapted version of the Openness-Fluid-Crystallized-Intelligence (OFCI) model. The OFCI model adapted to late adulthood predicts that openness is related to the decline in fluid reasoning (Gf) through environmental enrichment. Gf should be related to the development of comprehension knowledge (Gc; investment theory). It was also assumed that Gf predicts changes in openness as suggested by the environmental success hypothesis. Finally, the OFCI model proposes that openness has an indirect influence on the decline in Gc through its effect on Gf (mediation hypothesis). Using data from the Berlin Aging Study (N = 516, 70-103 years at T1), these predictions were tested using latent change score and latent growth curve models with indicators of each trait. The current findings and prior research support environmental enrichment and success, investment theory, and partially the mediation hypotheses. Based on a summary of all findings, the OFCI model for late adulthood is suggested. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Measuring Socioeconomic Status and Environmental Factors in the SAYCARE Study in South America: Reliability of the Methods.

PubMed

De Moraes, Augusto Cesar Ferreira; Forkert, Elsie C O; Vilanova-Campelo, Regina Célia; González-Zapata, Laura Inés; Azzaretti, Leticia; Iguacel, Isabel; Huicho, Luis; Moliterno, Paula; Moreno, Luis Alberto; Carvalho, Heráclito Barbosa

2018-03-01

This paper aimed to test the reliability of two questionnaires in studies involving children and adolescents (aged 3-18 years) in seven South American cities. One assesses socioeconomic status (SES) and the other measures environmental factors. The SES questionnaire was composed of 14 questions, which included the presence of several consumer goods, domestic services, family income, parental education level, and current parental occupation status. The environmental questionnaire was composed of 15 questions to measure the social and infrastructure characteristics of the area of residence. Parents or guardians completed the questionnaires on behalf of their children. Adolescents answered the questions themselves for environmental factors, while those related to SES factors were answered by their parents or guardians. We analyzed the reliability of the questionnaires through kappa coefficient determination. Multilevel linear regression models were applied to calculate the correlation between the total household scores, the household income, and parents' education level. The environmental questionnaire showed good reproducibility in both age groups (k = 0.132-0.612 in children and k = 0.392-0.746 in adolescents). The SES questionnaire showed strong reliability in both age groups for all indicators (k = 0.52-1.00 in children and k = 0.296-0.964 in adolescents). Our multiple indicator questionnaires focused on environmental factors and SES in pediatric health surveys provided useful and easily applicable additional indicators to measure these important determinants of cardiovascular health. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

Indicators of ecosystem function identify alternate states in the sagebrush steppe.

PubMed

Kachergis, Emily; Rocca, Monique E; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E

2011-10-01

Models of ecosystem change that incorporate nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, such as state-and-transition models (STMs), are increasingly popular tools for land management decision-making. However, few models are based on systematic collection and documentation of ecological data, and of these, most rely solely on structural indicators (species composition) to identify states and transitions. As STMs are adopted as an assessment framework throughout the United States, finding effective and efficient ways to create data-driven models that integrate ecosystem function and structure is vital. This study aims to (1) evaluate the utility of functional indicators (indicators of rangeland health, IRH) as proxies for more difficult ecosystem function measurements and (2) create a data-driven STM for the sagebrush steppe of Colorado, USA, that incorporates both ecosystem structure and function. We sampled soils, plant communities, and IRH at 41 plots with similar clayey soils but different site histories to identify potential states and infer the effects of management practices and disturbances on transitions. We found that many IRH were correlated with quantitative measures of functional indicators, suggesting that the IRH can be used to approximate ecosystem function. In addition to a reference state that functions as expected for this soil type, we identified four biotically and functionally distinct potential states, consistent with the theoretical concept of alternate states. Three potential states were related to management practices (chemical and mechanical shrub treatments and seeding history) while one was related only to ecosystem processes (erosion). IRH and potential states were also related to environmental variation (slope, soil texture), suggesting that there are environmental factors within areas with similar soils that affect ecosystem dynamics and should be noted within STMs. Our approach generated an objective, data-driven model of ecosystem dynamics for rangeland management. Our findings suggest that the IRH approximate ecosystem processes and can distinguish between alternate states and communities and identify transitions when building data-driven STMs. Functional indicators are a simple, efficient way to create data-driven models that are consistent with alternate state theory. Managers can use them to improve current model-building methods and thus apply state-and-transition models more broadly for land management decision-making.

Broad Bandwidth or High Fidelity? Evidence from the Structure of Genetic and Environmental Effects on the Facets of the Five Factor Model

PubMed Central

Briley, Daniel A.; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2017-01-01

The Five Factor Model (FFM) of personality is well-established at the phenotypic level, but much less is known about the coherence of the genetic and environmental influences within each personality domain. Univariate behavioral genetic analyses have consistently found the influence of additive genes and nonshared environment on multiple personality facets, but the extent to which genetic and environmental influences on specific facets reflect more general influences on higher order factors is less clear. We applied a multivariate quantitative-genetic approach to scores on the CPI-Big Five facets for 490 monozygotic and 317 dizygotic twins who took part in the National Merit Twin Study. Our results revealed a complex genetic structure for facets composing all five factors, with both domain-general and facet-specific genetic and environmental influences. Models that required common genetic and environmental influences on each facet to occur by way of effects on a higher order trait did not fit as well as models allowing for common genetic and environmental effects to act directly on the facets for three of the Big Five domains. These results add to the growing body of literature indicating that important variation in personality occurs at the facet level which may be overshadowed by aggregating to the trait level. Research at the facet level, rather than the factor level, is likely to have pragmatic advantages in future research on the genetics of personality. PMID:22695681

The evolution of environmental metalloproteomics over the last 15 years through bibliometric techniques.

PubMed

Hauser-Davis, Rachel Ann; Lopes, Renato Matos; Mota, Fábio Batista; Moreira, Josino Costa

2017-06-01

Metalloproteomic studies in environmental scenarios are of significant value in elucidating metal uptake, trafficking, accumulation and metabolism linked to biomolecules in biological systems. The advent of this field occurred in the early 2000s, and it has since become an interesting and growing area of interdisciplinary research, although the number of publications in Environmental Metalloprotemics is still very low compared to other metallomic areas. In this context, the evolution of Environmental Metalloprotemics in the last decades was evaluated herein through the use of bibliometric techniques, identifying variables that may aid researchers in this area to form collaborative networks with established scientists in this regard, such as main authors, published articles, institutions, countries and established collaborations involved in academic research on this subject. Results indicate a growing trend of publications over time, reflecting the interest of the scientific community in Environmental Metalloprotemics, but also demonstrated that the research interactions in this field are still country- and organization-specific. Higher amounts of publications are observed from the late 2000's onwards, related to the increasing technological advances in the area, such as the development of techniques combining atomic spectroscopy and biochemical or proteomic techniques. The retrieved publications also indicate that the recent advances in genomic, proteomic and metallomic areas have allowed for extended applications of Environmental Metalloprotemics in non-model organisms. The results reported herein indicate that Environmental Metalloprotemics seems to now be reaching a more mature stage, in which analytical techniques are now well established and can be routinely applied in environmental scenarios, benefitting researchers and allowing for further insights into this fascinating field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study on environmental indices and heat tolerance tests in hair sheep.

PubMed

Seixas, L; de Melo, C B; Menezes, A M; Ramos, A F; Paludo, G R; Peripolli, V; Tanure, C B; Costa Junior, J B G; McManus, C

2017-06-01

The ability to predict the effects of climatic factors on animals and their adaptability is important for livestock production. The aim of the present study was to analyze whether existing indices are suitable for evaluating heat stress in Santa Ines and Morada Nova sheep, which are locally adapted hair sheep breeds from northeastern Brazil, and if the limits used to classify thermal stress are suitable for these breeds. Therefore, climatic, physiological, and physical parameters, as well as thermographic images, were collected in 26 sheep, 1 1/2 years old, from two genetic groups (Santa Ines 12 males and 4 females; Morada Nov. 7 males and 3 females) for 3 days in both morning (4:00 a.m.) and afternoon (2:00 p.m.) with six repetitions, totalizing 156 repetitions. Statistical analysis included correlations and broken-line regressions. Iberia and Benezra indices were the tolerance tests that best correlated with the assessed parameters. High correlations between environmental indices and rectal or skin surface temperatures was observed, which indicates that these indices can be used for Santa Ines and Morada Nova sheep raised in central Brazil. However, some indicative values of thermal discomfort are different from the existing classification. Therefore, in order to classify appropriately, the model used needs to be carefully studied, because these classifying values can vary according to the species and model. Further research is necessary to establish indicators of thermal stress for sheep breeds raised in the region.

Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

PubMed

López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use.

PubMed

Edwards, Alexis C; Maes, Hermine H; Prescott, Carol A; Kendler, Kenneth S

2015-02-01

Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one's peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. This study uses data from a sample of male twins (N = 1,790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers' alcohol-related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12 to 25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare 3 plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Model fitting indicated that one's own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one's peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Peers' alcohol use behaviors and one's own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use

PubMed Central

Edwards, Alexis C.; Maesr, Hermine H.; Prescott, Carol A.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one’s peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. Methods The current study uses data from a sample of male twins (N=1790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers’ alcohol related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12–25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare three plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Results Model fitting indicated that one’s own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one’s peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Conclusions Peers’ alcohol use behaviors and one’s own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. PMID:25597346

The Asian clam Corbicula fluminea as a biomonitor of trace element contamination: Accounting for different sources of variation using an hierarchical linear model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoults-Wilson, W. A.; Peterson, J.T.; Unrine, J.M.; Rickard, J.; Black, M.C.

2009-01-01

In the present study, specimens of the invasive clam, Corbicula fluminea, were collected above and below possible sources of potentially toxic trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in the Altamaha River system (Georgia, USA). Bioaccumulation of these elements was quantified, along with environmental (water and sediment) concentrations. Hierarchical linear models were used to account for variability in tissue concentrations related to environmental (site water chemistry and sediment characteristics) and individual (growth metrics) variables while identifying the strongest relations between these variables and trace element accumulation. The present study found significantly elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Hg downstream of the outfall of kaolin-processing facilities, Zn downstream of a tire cording facility, and Cr downstream of both a nuclear power plant and a paper pulp mill. Models of the present study indicated that variation in trace element accumulation was linked to distance upstream from the estuary, dissolved oxygen, percentage of silt and clay in the sediment, elemental concentrations in sediment, shell length, and bivalve condition index. By explicitly modeling environmental variability, the Hierarchical linear modeling procedure allowed the identification of sites showing increased accumulation of trace elements that may have been caused by human activity. Hierarchical linear modeling is a useful tool for accounting for environmental and individual sources of variation in bioaccumulation studies. ?? 2009 SETAC.

Parenting quality: Confirmation of a higher-order latent construct with mothers of Head Start children

PubMed Central

Hubbs-Tait, Laura; Page, Melanie C.; Huey, Erron L.; Starost, Huei-Juang; Culp, Anne McDonald; Culp, Rex E.; Harper, M. Elizabeth

2009-01-01

We proposed a higher order latent construct of parenting young children, parenting quality. This higher-order latent construct comprises five component constructs: demographic protection, psychological distress, psychosocial maturity, moral and cognitive reflectivity, and parenting attitudes and beliefs. We evaluated this model with data provided by 199 mothers of 4-year-old children enrolled in Head Start. The model was confirmed with only one adjustment suggested by modification indices. Final RMSEA was .05, CFI .96, and NNFI .94, indicating good model fit. Results were interpreted as emphasizing the interdependence of psychological and environmental demands on parenting. Implications of the model for teachers, early interventionists, and public policy are discussed. PMID:19629192

Behavioral Phenotyping and Pathological Indicators of Parkinson's Disease in C. elegans Models

PubMed Central

Maulik, Malabika; Mitra, Swarup; Bult-Ito, Abel; Taylor, Barbara E.; Vayndorf, Elena M.

2017-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder with symptoms that progressively worsen with age. Pathologically, PD is characterized by the aggregation of α-synuclein in cells of the substantia nigra in the brain and loss of dopaminergic neurons. This pathology is associated with impaired movement and reduced cognitive function. The etiology of PD can be attributed to a combination of environmental and genetic factors. A popular animal model, the nematode roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans, has been frequently used to study the role of genetic and environmental factors in the molecular pathology and behavioral phenotypes associated with PD. The current review summarizes cellular markers and behavioral phenotypes in transgenic and toxin-induced PD models of C. elegans. PMID:28659967

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, David B.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.; Ellison, Richard A.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Staley, Michael J.

1982-01-01

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) and the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.

PubMed

da Costa, Simone Miranda; Cordeiro, José Luís Passos; Rangel, Elizabeth Ferreira

2018-03-07

Leishmaniasis represents an important public health problem in Brazil. The continuous process of urbanization and expansion of human activities in forest areas impacts natural habitats, modifying the ecology of some species of Leishmania, as well as its vectors and reservoirs and, consequently, changes the epidemiological pattern that contributes to the expansion of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Here, we discuss Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani, the main vector of ACL, transmitting two dermotropic Leishmania species including Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (V.) shawi. We used the maximum entropy niche modelling approach (MaxEnt) to evaluate the environmental suitability of L. (N.) whitmani and the transmission of ACL in Brazil, in addition to designing models for a future scenario of climate change. MaxEnt was used under the "auto-features" mode and the default settings, with 100-fold repetition (bootstrap). The logistic output was used with higher values in the habitat suitability map, representing more favourable conditions for the occurrence of L. (N.) whitmani and human cases of ACL. Two models were developed: the Lutzomyia (N.) whitmani model (LWM) and the American cutaneous leishmaniasis model (ACLM). LWM identified the species "preferential habitat" included regions with moderate annual precipitation (AP) between 1000-1600 mm, intermediate vegetation density (NDVI) values, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ), between 15-21 °C, and annual mean temperature (AMT), between 19-24 °C. ACLM indicates that ACL is strongly associated with areas of intermediate density vegetation, areas with AP between 800-1200 mm, MTCQ above 16 °C and AMT below 23 °C. The models generated for L. (N.) whitmani and ACL indicated a satisfactory predictive capacity. Future projections of LWM indicate an expansion of climatic suitability for L. (N.) whitmani for the northern and southern regions of Brazil. Future projections of ACL indicate the ongoing process of disease expansion in the face of the predicted climatic changes and reinforce the broad geographical expanse of this disease in Brazil. The models were able to identify that a continuous process of environmental degradation favours the establishment of L. (N.) whitmani and the occurrence of ACL by a strong association of the vector(s) and ACL to areas of intermediate vegetation cover density.

Mapping environmental injustices: pitfalls and potential of geographic information systems in assessing environmental health and equity.

PubMed Central

Maantay, Juliana

2002-01-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been used increasingly to map instances of environmental injustice, the disproportionate exposure of certain populations to environmental hazards. Some of the technical and analytic difficulties of mapping environmental injustice are outlined in this article, along with suggestions for using GIS to better assess and predict environmental health and equity. I examine 13 GIS-based environmental equity studies conducted within the past decade and use a study of noxious land use locations in the Bronx, New York, to illustrate and evaluate the differences in two common methods of determining exposure extent and the characteristics of proximate populations. Unresolved issues in mapping environmental equity and health include lack of comprehensive hazards databases; the inadequacy of current exposure indices; the need to develop realistic methodologies for determining the geographic extent of exposure and the characteristics of the affected populations; and the paucity and insufficiency of health assessment data. GIS have great potential to help us understand the spatial relationship between pollution and health. Refinements in exposure indices; the use of dispersion modeling and advanced proximity analysis; the application of neighborhood-scale analysis; and the consideration of other factors such as zoning and planning policies will enable more conclusive findings. The environmental equity studies reviewed in this article found a disproportionate environmental burden based on race and/or income. It is critical now to demonstrate correspondence between environmental burdens and adverse health impacts--to show the disproportionate effects of pollution rather than just the disproportionate distribution of pollution sources. PMID:11929725

Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: the role of tourism and ecological footprint.

PubMed

Ozturk, Ilhan; Al-Mulali, Usama; Saboori, Behnaz

2016-01-01

The main objective of this study is to examine the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis by utilizing the ecological footprint as an environment indicator and GDP from tourism as the economic indicator. To achieve this goal, an environmental degradation model is established during the period of 1988-2008 for 144 countries. The results from the time series generalized method of moments (GMM) and the system panel GMM revealed that the number of countries that have a negative relationship between the ecological footprint and its determinants (GDP growth from tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, and urbanization) is more existent in the upper middle- and high-income countries. Moreover, the EKC hypothesis is more present in the upper middle- and high-income countries than the other income countries. From the outcome of this research, a number of policy recommendations were provided for the investigated countries.

Home Environmental and Behavioral Risk Indices for Reading Achievement.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeanette; Ennis, Chelsea R; Hart, Sara A; Mikolajewski, Amy J; Schatschneider, Christopher

2017-07-01

The goal of this study was to identify home environmental and temperament/behavior variables that best predict standardized reading comprehension scores among school-aged children. Data from 269 children aged 9-16 ( M = 12.08; SD = 1.62) were used in discriminant function analyses to create the Home and Behavior indices. Family income was controlled in each index. The final Home and Behavior models each classified around 75% of cases correctly (reading comprehension at grade level vs. not). Each index was then used to predict other outcomes related to reading. Results showed that Home and/or Behavior accounted for 4-7% of the variance in reading fluency and spelling and 20-35% of the variance in parent-rated problems in math, social anxiety, and other dimensions. These metrics show promise as environmental and temperament/behavior risk scores that could be used to predict and potentially screen for further assessment of reading related problems.

Consumer purchase intention towards environmentally friendly vehicles: an empirical investigation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Afroz, Rafia; Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhtar, Rulia; Islam, Md Ashraful; Duasa, Jarita Bt

2015-10-01

This paper examines whether attitudes towards electric vehicles (ATEVs), subjective norms (SNs) and perceived behavioural control (PBC) have significant associations with consumer purchase intention (PI) and the purchase behaviour of environmentally friendly vehicles (EFVs). The results from the survey questionnaires are analysed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM). The findings of this paper indicate that ATEV, SN and PBC significantly influence PI. This finding also indicates that environmental consequence and individual preferences do not influence the PI of the respondents. We found that Malaysian car owners are largely unaware of the greenhouse effects on the environment or attach to it little importance, which is reflected in their PI towards EFVs. The outcomes of this study could help policymakers design programmes to influence attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and purchase behaviour to prevent further air pollution and reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector.

A preliminary investigation of the environmental impact of a thermal power plant in relation to PCB contamination.

PubMed

Gedik, Kadir; Imamoglu, Ipek

2011-07-01

The most significant application of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) is in transformers and capacitors. Therefore, power plants are important suspected sources for entry of PCBs into the environment. In this context, the levels and distribution of PCBs in sediment, soil, ash, and sludge samples were investigated around Seyitömer thermal power plant, Kütahya, Turkey. Moreover, identity and contribution of PCB mixtures were predicted using the chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model. United States Environmental Protection Agency methods were applied during sample preparation, extraction (3540C), cleanup (3660B, 3665A, 3630C), and analysis (8082A). ΣPCB concentrations in the region ranged from not detected to 385 ng/g dry weight, with relatively higher contamination in sediments in comparison to soil, sludge, and ash samples collected from around the power plant. Congener profiles of the sediment and soil samples show penta-, hexa-, and hepta-chlorobiphenyls as the major homolog groups. The results from the CMB model indicate that PCB contamination is largely due to Clophen A60/A40 and Aroclor 1254/1254(late)/1260 release into the sediment and sludge samples around the thermal power plant. Since there are no other sources of PCBs in the region and the identity of PCB sources estimated by the CMB model mirrors PCB mixtures contained in transformers formerly used in the plant, the environmental contamination observed especially in sediments is attributed to the power plant. Release of PCBs over time, as indicated by the significant concentrations observed even in surface samples, emphasizes the importance of the need for better environmental management.

Exploring the use of random regression models with legendre polynomials to analyze measures of volume of ejaculate in Holstein bulls.

PubMed

Carabaño, M J; Díaz, C; Ugarte, C; Serrano, M

2007-02-01

Artificial insemination centers routinely collect records of quantity and quality of semen of bulls throughout the animals' productive period. The goal of this paper was to explore the use of random regression models with orthogonal polynomials to analyze repeated measures of semen production of Spanish Holstein bulls. A total of 8,773 records of volume of first ejaculate (VFE) collected between 12 and 30 mo of age from 213 Spanish Holstein bulls was analyzed under alternative random regression models. Legendre polynomial functions of increasing order (0 to 6) were fitted to the average trajectory, additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Age at collection and days in production were used as time variables. Heterogeneous and homogeneous residual variances were alternatively assumed. Analyses were carried out within a Bayesian framework. The logarithm of the marginal density and the cross-validation predictive ability of the data were used as model comparison criteria. Based on both criteria, age at collection as a time variable and heterogeneous residuals models are recommended to analyze changes of VFE over time. Both criteria indicated that fitting random curves for genetic and permanent environmental components as well as for the average trajector improved the quality of models. Furthermore, models with a higher order polynomial for the permanent environmental (5 to 6) than for the genetic components (4 to 5) and the average trajectory (2 to 3) tended to perform best. High-order polynomials were needed to accommodate the highly oscillating nature of the phenotypic values. Heritability and repeatability estimates, disregarding the extremes of the studied period, ranged from 0.15 to 0.35 and from 0.20 to 0.50, respectively, indicating that selection for VFE may be effective at any stage. Small differences among models were observed. Apart from the extremes, estimated correlations between ages decreased steadily from 0.9 and 0.4 for measures 1 mo apart to 0.4 and 0.2 for most distant measures for additive genetic and phenotypic components, respectively. Further investigation to account for environmental factors that may be responsible for the oscillating observations of VFE is needed.

Determinants of healthcare system's efficiency in OECD countries.

PubMed

Hadad, Sharon; Hadad, Yossi; Simon-Tuval, Tzahit

2013-04-01

Firstly, to compare healthcare systems' efficiency (HSE) using two models: one incorporating mostly inputs that are considered to be within the discretionary control of the healthcare system (i.e., physicians' density, inpatient bed density, and health expenditure), and another, including mostly inputs beyond healthcare systems' control (i.e., GDP, fruit and vegetables consumption, and health expenditure). Secondly, analyze whether institutional arrangements, population behavior, and socioeconomic or environmental determinants are associated with HSE. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was utilized to calculate OECD countries' HSE. Life expectancy and infant survival rate were considered as outputs in both models. Healthcare systems' rankings according to the super-efficiency and the cross-efficiency ranking methods were used to analyze determinants associated with efficiency. (1) Healthcare systems in nine countries with large and stable economies were defined as efficient in model I, but were found to be inefficient in model II; (2) Gatekeeping and the presence of multiple insurers were associated with a lower efficiency; and (3) The association between socioeconomic and environmental indicators was found to be ambiguous. Countries striving to improve their HSE should aim to impact population behavior and welfare rather than only ensure adequate medical care. In addition, they may consider avoiding specific institutional arrangements, namely gatekeeping and the presence of multiple insurers. Finally, the ambiguous association found between socioeconomic and environmental indicators, and a country's HSE necessitates caution when interpreting different ranking techniques in a cross-country efficiency evaluation and needs further exploration.

Is my study system good enough? A case study for identifying maternal effects.

PubMed

Holand, Anna Marie; Steinsland, Ingelin

2016-06-01

In this paper, we demonstrate how simulation studies can be used to answer questions about identifiability and consequences of omitting effects from a model. The methodology is presented through a case study where identifiability of genetic and/or individual (environmental) maternal effects is explored. Our study system is a wild house sparrow ( Passer domesticus ) population with known pedigree. We fit pedigree-based (generalized) linear mixed models (animal models), with and without additive genetic and individual maternal effects, and use deviance information criterion (DIC) for choosing between these models. Pedigree and R-code for simulations are available. For this study system, the simulation studies show that only large maternal effects can be identified. The genetic maternal effect (and similar for individual maternal effect) has to be at least half of the total genetic variance to be identified. The consequences of omitting a maternal effect when it is present are explored. Our results indicate that the total (genetic and individual) variance are accounted for. When an individual (environmental) maternal effect is omitted from the model, this only influences the estimated (direct) individual (environmental) variance. When a genetic maternal effect is omitted from the model, both (direct) genetic and (direct) individual variance estimates are overestimated.

Integrated fate modeling for exposure assessment of produced water on the Sable Island Bank (Scotian shelf, Canada).

PubMed

Berry, Jody A; Wells, Peter G

2004-10-01

Produced water is the largest waste discharge from the production phase of oil and gas wells. Produced water is a mixture of reservoir formation water and production chemicals from the separation process. This creates a chemical mixture that has several components of toxic concern, ranging from heavy metals to soluble hydrocarbons. Analysis of potential environmental effects from produced water in the Sable Island Bank region (NS, Canada) was conducted using an integrated modeling approach according to the ecological risk assessment framework. A hydrodynamic dispersion model was used to describe the wastewater plume. A second fugacity-based model was used to describe the likely plume partitioning in the local environmental media of water, suspended sediment, biota, and sediment. Results from the integrated modeling showed that the soluble benzene and naphthalene components reach chronic no-effect concentration levels at a distance of 1.0 m from the discharge point. The partition modeling indicated that low persistence was expected because of advection forces caused by tidal currents for the Sable Island Bank system. The exposure assessment for the two soluble hydrocarbon components suggests that the risks of adverse environmental effects from produced water on Sable Island Bank are low.

Mapping, Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Spatial Prediction of Lymphatic Filariasis Prevalence in Africa

PubMed Central

Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

2013-01-01

There is increasing interest to control or eradicate the major neglected tropical diseases. Accurate modelling of the geographic distributions of parasitic infections will be crucial to this endeavour. We used 664 community level infection prevalence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with eight environmental variables, altitude and population density, and a multivariate Bayesian generalized linear spatial model that allows explicit accounting for spatial autocorrelation and incorporation of uncertainty in input data and model parameters, to construct the first spatially-explicit map describing LF prevalence distribution in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against predictions made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA climate models for 2050 to predict the likely distributions of LF under future climate and population changes. We show that LF prevalence is strongly influenced by spatial autocorrelation between locations but is only weakly associated with environmental covariates. Infection prevalence, however, is found to be related to variations in population density. All associations with key environmental/demographic variables appear to be complex and non-linear. LF prevalence is predicted to be highly heterogenous across Africa, with high prevalences (>20%) estimated to occur primarily along coastal West and East Africa, and lowest prevalences predicted for the central part of the continent. Error maps, however, indicate a need for further surveys to overcome problems with data scarcity in the latter and other regions. Analysis of future changes in prevalence indicates that population growth rather than climate change per se will represent the dominant factor in the predicted increase/decrease and spread of LF on the continent. We indicate that these results could play an important role in aiding the development of strategies that are best able to achieve the goals of parasite elimination locally and globally in a manner that may also account for the effects of future climate change on parasitic infection. PMID:23951194

Developing the remote sensing-based water environmental model for monitoring alpine river water environment over Plateau cold zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Y.; Wang, S.; Yang, Q.; Shen, M.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Alpine river water environment on the Plateau (such as Tibetan Plateau, China) is a key indicator for water security and environmental security in China. Due to the complex terrain and various surface eco-environment, it is a very difficult to monitor the water environment over the complex land surface of the plateau. The increasing availability of remote sensing techniques with appropriate spatiotemporal resolutions, broad coverage and low costs allows for effective monitoring river water environment on the Plateau, particularly in remote and inaccessible areas where are lack of in situ observations. In this study, we propose a remote sense-based monitoring model by using multi-platform remote sensing data for monitoring alpine river environment. In this study some parameterization methodologies based on satellite remote sensing data and field observations have been proposed for monitoring the water environmental parameters (including chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), water turbidity (WT) or water clarity (SD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC)) over the china's southwest highland rivers, such as the Brahmaputra. First, because most sensors do not collect multiple observations of a target in a single pass, data from multiple orbits or acquisition times may be used, and varying atmospheric and irradiance effects must be reconciled. So based on various types of satellite data, at first we developed the techniques of multi-sensor data correction, atmospheric correction. Second, we also built the inversion spectral database derived from long-term remote sensing data and field sampling data. Then we have studied and developed a high-precision inversion model over the southwest highland river backed by inversion spectral database through using the techniques of multi-sensor remote sensing information optimization and collaboration. Third, take the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra river as the study area, we validated the key water environmental parameters and further improved the inversion model. The results indicate that our proposed water environment inversion model can be a good inversion for alpine water environmental parameters, and can improve the monitoring and warning ability for the alpine river water environment in the future.

Predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a maximum entropy modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-12-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean conditions influence marine fish distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change and forecasting how fish may be distributed in the future. Species distribution models (SDMs) can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering species in space or time as a function of environmental conditions. Traditional SDMs are applied to scientific-survey data that include both presences and absences. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are promising tools as they can be applied to presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or citizen science programs. We used MaxEnt to relate the occurrence records of marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) from NOAA Northeast Fisheries Observer Program to environmental conditions. Environmental variables from earth system data, such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea bottom temperature (SBT), Chlorophyll-a, bathymetry, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), were matched with species occurrence for MaxEnt modeling the fish distributions in Northeast Shelf area. We developed habitat suitability maps for these species, and assessed the relative influence of environmental factors on their distributions. Overall, SST and Chlorophyll-a had greatest influence on their monthly distributions, with bathymetry and SBT having moderate influence and climate indices (NAO and AMO) having little influence. Across months, Atlantic herring distribution was most related to SST 10th percentile, and Atlantic mackerel and butterfish distributions were most related to previous month SST. The fish distributions were most affected by previous month Chlorophyll-a in summer months, which may indirectly indicate the accumulative impact of primary productivity. Results highlighted the importance of spatial and temporal scales when using SDMs to investigate the habitat suitability and distributions of a focal species. MaxEnt models have the potential to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, or forecasts of future species distributions.

Relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions depends on income level and policy.

PubMed

Ponce de Leon Barido, Diego; Marshall, Julian D

2014-04-01

We investigate empirically how national-level CO2 emissions are affected by urbanization and environmental policy. We use statistical modeling to explore panel data on annual CO2 emissions from 80 countries for the period 1983-2005. Random- and fixed-effects models indicate that, on the global average, the urbanization-emission elasticity value is 0.95 (i.e., a 1% increase in urbanization correlates with a 0.95% increase in emissions). Several regions display a statistically significant, positive elasticity for fixed- and random-effects models: lower-income Europe, India and the Sub-Continent, Latin America, and Africa. Using two proxies for environmental policy/outcomes (ratification status for the Kyoto Protocol; the Yale Environmental Performance Index), we find that in countries with stronger environmental policy/outcomes, urbanization has a more beneficial (or, a less negative) impact on emissions. Specifically, elasticity values are -1.1 (0.21) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with strong environmental policy, versus 0.65 (1.3) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with weak environmental policies. Our finding that the urbanization-emissions elasticity may depend on the strength of a country's environmental policy, not just marginal increases in income, is in contrast to the idea of universal urban scaling laws that can ignore local context. Most global population growth in the coming decades is expected to occur in urban areas of lower-income countries, which underscores the importance of these findings.

Environmental factors and their role in community integration after spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Lysack, Cathy; Komanecky, Marie; Kabel, Allison; Cross, Katherine; Neufeld, Stewart

2007-01-01

The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) model presents an opportunity to better understand previously neglected longterm social outcomes after traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI), especially the experience of participation. The study explored the relationship between perceived environmental barriers and perceived community integration (a participation proxy) in a sample of adults with traumatic SCI. The study interviewed African American and White women and men (n = 136) who had lived with SCI for an average of 11.5 years. Participants reported environmental barriers at twice the level indicated by previous studies; the natural environment and the policies of government were the most problematic. Levels of community integration were also high. Data suggest a significant relationship (p < .01) between perceived environmental barriers and community integration for adults with SCI, providing support for the ICF model. Improved measures and more sophisticated concepts and theories are needed to explicate the relationship between environmental factors and participation concepts in the ICE With respect to practice, occupational therapists need to be aware that removal of environmental barriers is only a first step in the more complex effort to facilitate optimal community integration after SCI.

Application of the environmental Gini coefficient in allocating water governance responsibilities: a case study in Taihu Lake Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Shenbei; Du, Amin; Bai, Minghao

2015-01-01

The equitable allocation of water governance responsibilities is very important yet difficult to achieve, particularly for a basin which involves many stakeholders and policymakers. In this study, the environmental Gini coefficient model was applied to evaluate the inequality of water governance responsibility allocation, and an environmental Gini coefficient optimisation model was built to achieve an optimal adjustment. To illustrate the application of the environmental Gini coefficient, the heavily polluted transboundary Taihu Lake Basin in China, was chosen as a case study. The results show that the original environmental Gini coefficient of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) was greater than 0.2, indicating that the allocation of water governance responsibilities in Taihu Lake Basin was unequal. Of seven decision-making units, three were found to be inequality factors and were adjusted to reduce the water pollutant emissions and to increase the water governance inputs. After the adjustment, the environmental Gini coefficient of the COD was less than 0.2 and the reduction rate was 27.63%. The adjustment process provides clear guidance for policymakers to develop appropriate policies and improve the equality of water governance responsibility allocation.

Merging remotely sensed data, models and indicators for a sustainable development of coastal aquaculture in Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigolin, Daniele; Venier, Chiara; Amine Taji, Mohamed; Lourguioui, Hichem; Mangin, Antoine; Pastres, Roberto

2014-05-01

Finfish cage farming is an economically relevant activity, which exerts pressures on coastal systems and thus require a science-based management, based on the Ecosystem Approach, in order to be carry out in a sustainable way. Within MEDINA project (EU 282977), ocean color data and models were used for estimating indicators of pressures of aquaculture installations along the north African coast. These indicators can provide important support for decision makers in the allocation of new zones for aquaculture, by taking into account the suitability of an area for this activity and minimizing negative environmental effects, thus enhancing the social acceptability of aquaculture. The increase in the number of farms represents a strategic objective for the Algerian food production sector, which is currently being supported by different national initiatives. The case-study presented in this work was carried out in the Gulf of Bejaia. Water quality for aquaculture was first screened based on ocean color CDOM data (http://www.globcolour.info/). The SWAN model was subsequently used to propagate offshore wave data and to derive wave height statistics. On this basis, sub-areas of the Gulf were ranked, according their optimality in respect to cage resistance and fish welfare requirements. At the three best sites an integrated aquaculture impact assessment model was therefore applied: this tool allows one to obtain a detailed representation of fish growth and population dynamics inside the rearing cages, and to simulate the deposition of uneaten food and faeces on the sediment and the subsequent mineralization of organic matter. This integrated model was used to produce a set of indicators of the fish cages environmental interaction under different scenarios of forcings (water temperature, feeding, currents). These model-derived indicators could usefully contribute to the implementation of the ecosystem approach for the management of aquaculture activities, also required by the implementation of the UNEP/MAP ecological approach.

Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Prioritize Key Maritime Environmental Impacts of Port Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Lespier, L. M.; Long, S.; Shoberg, T.

2016-12-01

This study creates a Monte Carlo simulation model to prioritize key indicators of environmental impacts resulting from maritime port infrastructure. Data inputs are derived from LandSat imagery, government databases, and industry reports to create the simulation. Results are validated using subject matter experts and compared with those returned from time-series regression to determine goodness of fit. The Port of Prince Rupert, Canada is used as the location for the study.

Epigenetic regulation of persistent pain

PubMed Central

Bai, Guang; Ren, Ke; Dubner, Ronald

2014-01-01

Persistent or chronic pain is tightly associated with various environmental changes and linked to abnormal gene expression within cells processing nociceptive signaling. Epigenetic regulation governs gene expression in response to environmental cues. Recent animal model and clinical studies indicate that epigenetic regulation plays an important role in the development/maintenance of persistent pain and, possibly the transition of acute pain to chronic pain, thus shedding light in a direction for development of new therapeutics for persistent pain. PMID:24948399

Environmental assessment proposed license renewal of Nuclear Metals, Inc. Concord, Massachusetts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, R.L.; Easterly, C.E.; Lombardi, C.E.

1997-02-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has prepared this Environmental Assessment (EA) to evaluate environmental issues associated with the renewal of licenses issued by NRC for facilities operated by Nuclear Metals, Inc. (NMI) in Concord, Massachusetts. By renewing the licenses, NRC proposes to allow the continuation of ongoing operations involving radioactive materials at NMI`s facilities. This EA focuses on the potential impacts related to air emissions at NMI during normal (incident-free) operations and accidental releases. Findings indicate that there are only two areas of potential concern. First, modeling results for sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) emissions from the boilers during normalmore » operations indicate that the potential exists for exceeding the short-term National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NMI is prepared to undertake mitigative action to prevent potential exceedances of the short-term SO{sub 2} NAAQS, and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection is prepared to resolve the issue via a permit/approval change or through a Consent Order. Second, in the unlikely event of a severe fire, predicted sulfuric acid (H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}) concentrations based on conservative (upper bound) modeling exceed the Emergency Response Planning Guideline (ERPG) levels. NMI has committed to NRC to give a briefing for local emergency response officials regarding the potential for an accidental H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} release.« less

Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.

2014-12-01

Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

Changes in the Size of the Active Microbial Pool Explain Short-Term Soil Respiratory Responses to Temperature and Moisture

PubMed Central

Salazar-Villegas, Alejandro; Blagodatskaya, Evgenia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Heterotrophic respiration contributes a substantial fraction of the carbon flux from soil to atmosphere, and responds strongly to environmental conditions. However, the mechanisms through which short-term changes in environmental conditions affect microbial respiration still remain unclear. Microorganisms cope with adverse environmental conditions by transitioning into and out of dormancy, a state in which they minimize rates of metabolism and respiration. These transitions are poorly characterized in soil and are generally omitted from decomposition models. Most current approaches to model microbial control over soil CO2 production relate responses to total microbial biomass (TMB) and do not differentiate between microorganisms in active and dormant physiological states. Indeed, few data for active microbial biomass (AMB) exist with which to compare model output. Here, we tested the hypothesis that differences in soil microbial respiration rates across various environmental conditions are more closely related to differences in AMB (e.g., due to activation of dormant microorganisms) than in TMB. We measured basal respiration (SBR) of soil incubated for a week at two temperatures (24 and 33°C) and two moisture levels (10 and 20% soil dry weight [SDW]), and then determined TMB, AMB, microbial specific growth rate, and the lag time before microbial growth (tlag) using the Substrate-Induced Growth Response (SIGR) method. As expected, SBR was more strongly correlated with AMB than with TMB. This relationship indicated that each g active biomass C contributed ~0.04 g CO2-C h−1 of SBR. TMB responded very little to short-term changes in temperature and soil moisture and did not explain differences in SBR among the treatments. Maximum specific growth rate did not respond to environmental conditions, suggesting that the dominant microbial populations remained similar. However, warmer temperatures and increased soil moisture both reduced tlag, indicating that favorable abiotic conditions activated soil microorganisms. We conclude that soil respiratory responses to short-term changes in environmental conditions are better explained by changes in AMB than in TMB. These results suggest that decomposition models that explicitly represent microbial carbon pools should take into account the active microbial pool, and researchers should be cautious in comparing modeled microbial pool sizes with measurements of TMB. PMID:27148213

Integrated indicator to evaluate vehicle performance across: Safety, fuel efficiency and green domains.

PubMed

Torrao, G; Fontes, T; Coelho, M; Rouphail, N

2016-07-01

In general, car manufacturers face trade-offs between safety, efficiency and environmental performance when choosing between mass, length, engine power, and fuel efficiency. Moreover, the information available to the consumers makes difficult to assess all these components at once, especially when aiming to compare vehicles across different categories and/or to compare vehicles in the same category but across different model years. The main objective of this research was to develop an integrated tool able to assess vehicle's performance simultaneously for safety and environmental domains, leading to the research output of a Safety, Fuel Efficiency and Green Emissions (SEG) indicator able to evaluate and rank vehicle's performance across those three domains. For this purpose, crash data was gathered in Porto (Portugal) for the period 2006-2010 (N=1374). The crash database was analyzed and crash severity prediction models were developed using advanced logistic regression models. Following, the methodology for the SEG indicator was established combining the vehicle's safety and the environmental evaluation into an integrated analysis. The obtained results for the SEG indicator do not show any trade-off between vehicle's safety, fuel consumption and emissions. The best performance was achieved for newer gasoline passenger vehicles (<5year) with a smaller engine size (<1400cm(3)). According to the SEG indicator, a vehicle with these characteristics can be recommended for a safety-conscious profile user, as well as for a user more interested in fuel economy and/or in green performance. On the other hand, for larger engine size vehicles (>2000cm(3)) the combined score for safety user profile was in average more satisfactory than for vehicles in the smaller engine size group (<1400cm(3)), which suggests that in general, larger vehicles may offer extra protection. The achieved results demonstrate that the developed SEG integrated methodology can be a helpful tool for consumers to evaluate their vehicle selection through different domains (safety, fuel efficiency and green emissions). Furthermore, SEG indicator allows the comparison of vehicles across different categories and vehicle model years. Hence, this research is intended to support the decision-making process for transportation policy, safety and sustainable mobility, providing insights not only to policy makers, but also for general public guidance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation of watershed setting and stream nutrient yields at selected sites in central and eastern North Carolina, 1997-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Stephen L.; Cuffney, Thomas F.; Terziotti, Silvia; Kolb, Katharine R.

2013-01-01

Data collected between 1997 and 2008 at 48 stream sites were used to characterize relations between watershed settings and stream nutrient yields throughout central and eastern North Carolina. The focus of the investigation was to identify environmental variables in watersheds that influence nutrient export for supporting the development and prioritization of management strategies for restoring nutrient-impaired streams. Nutrient concentration data and streamflow data compiled for the 1997 to 2008 study period were used to compute stream yields of nitrate, total nitrogen (N), and total phosphorus (P) for each study site. Compiled environmental data (including variables for land cover, hydrologic soil groups, base-flow index, streams, wastewater treatment facilities, and concentrated animal feeding operations) were used to characterize the watershed settings for the study sites. Data for the environmental variables were analyzed in combination with the stream nutrient yields to explore relations based on watershed characteristics and to evaluate whether particular variables were useful indicators of watersheds having relatively higher or lower potential for exporting nutrients. Data evaluations included an examination of median annual nutrient yields based on a watershed land-use classification scheme developed as part of the study. An initial examination of the data indicated that the highest median annual nutrient yields occurred at both agricultural and urban sites, especially for urban sites having large percentages of point-source flow contributions to the streams. The results of statistical testing identified significant differences in annual nutrient yields when sites were analyzed on the basis of watershed land-use category. When statistical differences in median annual yields were noted, the results for nitrate, total N, and total P were similar in that highly urbanized watersheds (greater than 30 percent developed land use) and (or) watersheds with greater than 10 percent point-source flow contributions to streamflow had higher yields relative to undeveloped watersheds (having less than 10 and 15 percent developed and agricultural land uses, respectively) and watersheds with relatively low agricultural land use (between 15 and 30 percent). The statistical tests further indicated that the median annual yields for total P were statistically higher for watersheds with high agricultural land use (greater than 30 percent) compared to the undeveloped watersheds and watersheds with low agricultural land use. The total P yields also were higher for watersheds with low urban land use (between 10 and 30 percent developed land) compared to the undeveloped watersheds. The study data indicate that grouping and examining stream nutrient yields based on the land-use classifications used in this report can be useful for characterizing relations between watershed settings and nutrient yields in streams located throughout central and eastern North Carolina. Compiled study data also were analyzed with four regression tree models as a means of determining which watershed environmental variables or combination of variables result in basins that are likely to have high or low nutrient yields. The regression tree analyses indicated that some of the environmental variables examined in this study were useful for predicting yields of nitrate, total N, and total P. When the median annual nutrient yields for all 48 sites were evaluated as a group (Model 1), annual point-source flow yields had the greatest influence on nitrate and total N yields observed in streams, and annual streamflow yields had the greatest influence on yields of total P. The Model 1 results indicated that watersheds with higher annual point-source flow yields had higher annual yields of nitrate and total N, and watersheds with higher annual streamflow yields had higher annual yields of total P. When sites with high point-source flows (greater than 10 percent of total streamflow) were excluded from the regression tree analyses (Models 2–4), the percentage of forested land in the watersheds was identified as the primary environmental variable influencing stream yields for both total N and total P. Models 2, 3 and 4 did not identify any watershed environmental variables that could adequately explain the observed variability in the nitrate yields among the set of sites examined by each of these models. The results for Models 2, 3, and 4 indicated that watersheds with higher percentages of forested land had lower annual total N and total P yields compared to watersheds with lower percentages of forested land, which had higher median annual total N and total P yields. Additional environmental variables determined to further influence the stream nutrient yields included median annual percentage of point-source flow contributions to the streams, variables of land cover (percentage of forested land, agricultural land, and (or) forested land plus wetlands) in the watershed and (or) in the stream buffer, and drainage area. The regression tree models can serve as a tool for relating differences in select watershed attributes to differences in stream yields of nitrate, total N, and total P, which can provide beneficial information for improving nutrient management in streams throughout North Carolina and for reducing nutrient loads to coastal waters.

Improving Science Student Teachers' Self-perceptions of Fluency with Innovative Technologies and Scientific Inquiry Abilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çalik, Muammer; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Özsevgeç, Tuncay; Küçük, Zeynel; Artun, Hüseyin

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of "Environmental Chemistry" elective course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry (TESI) model on senior science student teachers' (SSSTs) self-perceptions of fluency with innovative technologies (InT) and scientific inquiry abilities. The study was conducted with 117 SSSTs (68 females and 49 males—aged 21-23 years) enrolled in the "Environmental Chemistry" elective course in spring semester of 2011-2012 academic year in a Turkish University. Within a simple (causal) experimental design, Innovative Technology Fluency Survey and the SSSTs' environmental research papers were employed to collect data. The results indicate that the "Environmental Chemistry" elective course via the TESI model improved the SSSTs' self-perceptions of fluency with InT and the scientific inquiry abilities. In light of the results, it is recommended that an undergraduate course for improving the SSSTs' higher-order scientific inquiry abilities and preparing academically papers should be devised and added into the science teacher-training programmes.

Sustainable Development: The Challenge for Community Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gamble, Dorothy N.; Weil, Marie O.

1997-01-01

Five areas of inquiry shape the sustainable development movement: environmental movement, women's movement, overpopulation concerns, critique of development models, and new indicators of social progress. Community development workers are challenged to prepare local development projects within a sustainable development framework. (SK)

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-01-01

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-06-16

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Monitoring bacterial indicators of water quality in a tidally influenced delta: A Sisyphean pursuit.

PubMed

Partyka, Melissa L; Bond, Ronald F; Chase, Jennifer A; Atwill, Edward R

2017-02-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary (Delta) is the confluence of two major watersheds draining the Western Sierra Nevada mountains into the Central Valley of California, ultimately terminating into San Francisco Bay. We sampled 88 sites once a month for two years (2006-2008) over 87 separate sampling events for a total of 1740 samples. Water samples were analyzed for fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli, enterococci and fecal coliforms), and 53 other physiochemical, land use, and environmental characteristics. The purpose of the study was to create a baseline of microbial water quality in the Delta and to identify various factors (climatic, land use, tidal, etc.) that were associated with elevated concentrations of indicator bacteria. Fecal indicator bacteria generally had weak to modest relationships to environmental conditions; the strength and direction of which varied for each microbial indicator, drainage region, and across seasons. Measured and unmeasured, site-specific effects accounted for large portions of variance in model predictions (ρ=0.086 to 0.255), indicating that spatial autocorrelation was a major component of water quality outcomes. The effects of tidal cycling and lack of connectivity between waterways and surrounding landscapes likely contributed to the lack of association between local land uses and microbial outcomes, though weak associations may also be indicative of mismatched spatiotemporal scales. The complex nature of this system necessitates continued monitoring and regular updates to statistical models designed to predict microbial water quality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China*

PubMed Central

Guan, Fa-chun; Sha, Zhi-peng; Zhang, Yu-yang; Wang, Jun-feng; Wang, Chao

2016-01-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems. PMID:27487808

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Guan, Fa-Chun; Sha, Zhi-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Wang, Jun-Feng; Wang, Chao

2016-08-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems.

Predicting Potential Risk Areas of Human Plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Neerinckx, Simon; Peterson, A. Townsend; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef; Kimaro, Didas; Leirs, Herwig

2010-01-01

A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986–2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km2 of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague. PMID:20207880

Contribution of personal and environmental factors on positive psychological functioning in adolescents.

PubMed

Fadda, Daniela; Scalas, L Francesca; Meleddu, Mauro

2015-08-01

This study examined self-esteem as mediator in the relations of personal (extraversion, neuroticism) and environmental (maternal, paternal, peer-relationships) variables with domains of positive psychological functioning (PPF) in adolescence (Satisfaction with life, Mastery, Vigor, Social Interest, Social Cheerfulness). We compared one-sided and multidimensional models using a sample of 1193 high school students (592 males and 601 females). We examined variations in adolescent PPF as a function of parenting styles via independent examination of maternal and paternal bonding. Results supported the multidimensional models, which indicated direct effects of personality traits, maternal care and peer relationships, as well as indirect effects, mediated by self-esteem, of all predictors on most PPF dimensions. Overall, our study provided a broader picture of personal and environmental predictors on different dimensions of PPF, which supported the mediating role of self-esteem and emphasized the importance of considering multidimensional models to characterize PPF in adolescents. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental non-governmental organizations and urban environmental governance: Evidence from China.

PubMed

Li, Guangqin; He, Qiao; Shao, Shuai; Cao, Jianhua

2018-01-15

Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) play an increasingly important role in the process of urban environmental governance, especially in some developing countries such as China. However, existing studies pay little attention to such an issue in China. In this paper, we consider 113 cities in China from the pollution information transparency index (PITI) list released by ENGOs as the treatment group and some other cities as the control group, and use the difference-in-differences (DID) model and propensity score matching DID (PSM-DID) model to explore the role of ENGOs in China's urban environmental governance. The results show that ENGOs play a significantly positive and robust role in China's urban environmental governance. Furthermore, using regression analysis for eastern, central, and western China, we find that the influence of ENGOs exists in eastern and central China rather than in western China. In addition, the results of the Placebo test indicate that the effect of ENGOs shows an upward trend since 2008. We suggest that ENGOs' role should be strengthened in China, and governments at various levels should take into account environmental information released by ENGOs and consider appropriate measures to improve local environment quality using the obtained information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental fate of hexabromocyclododecane from a new Canadian electronic recycling facility.

PubMed

Tomko, Geoffrey; McDonald, Karen M

2013-01-15

An electronics recycling facility began operation at the municipal landfill site for the City of Edmonton, Canada in March 2008 with the goal of processing 30,000 tonnes of electronic wastes per year. Of the many by-products from the process, brominated fire retardants such as hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) can evolve off of e-wastes and be released into the environmental media. HBCD has been identified by many countries and international bodies as a chemical of concern because of its ability to bioaccumulate in the ecosystem. An evaluation of the potential emission of HBCD indicates that up to 500 kg per year may be released from a landfill and recycling facility such as that operating in Edmonton. A multimedia fugacity model was used to evaluate the dispersion and fate of atmospherically emitted HBCD traveling into surrounding agricultural land and forested parkland. The model indicates that the three isomers of HBCD partitioned into environmental media similarly. Much of the HBCD is lost through atmospheric advection, but it is also found in soil and sediment. Modeled air concentrations are similar to those measured at locations with a history of e-waste recycling. Since HBCD has been shown to bioaccumulate, the HBCD released from this source has the long-term potential to affect agricultural food crops and the park ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Sea-Surface Sun Glitter on Microwave Radiometer Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wentz, F. J.

1981-01-01

A relatively simple model for the microwave brightness temperature of sea surface Sun glitter is presented. The model is an accurate closeform approximation for the fourfold Sun glitter integral. The model computations indicate that Sun glitter contamination of on orbit radiometer measurements is appreciable over a large swath area. For winds near 20 m/s, Sun glitter affects the retrieval of environmental parameters for Sun angles as large as 20 to 25 deg. The model predicted biases in retrieved wind speed and sea surface temperature due to neglecting Sun glitter are consistent with those experimentally observed in SEASAT SMMR retrievals. A least squares retrieval algorithm that uses a combined sea and Sun model function shows the potential of retrieving accurate environmental parameters in the presence of Sun glitter so long as the Sun angles and wind speed are above 5 deg and 2 m/s, respectively.

Plant Photosynthesis-Irradiance Curve Responses to Pollution Show Non-Competitive Inhibited Michaelis Kinetics

PubMed Central

Lin, Maozi; Wang, Zhiwei; He, Lingchao; Xu, Kang; Cheng, Dongliang; Wang, Genxuan

2015-01-01

Photosynthesis-irradiance (PI) curves are extensively used in field and laboratory research to evaluate the photon-use efficiency of plants. However, most existing models for PI curves focus on the relationship between the photosynthetic rate (Pn) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and do not take account of the influence of environmental factors on the curve. In the present study, we used a new non-competitive inhibited Michaelis-Menten model (NIMM) to predict the co-variation of Pn, PAR, and the relative pollution index (I). We then evaluated the model with published data and our own experimental data. The results indicate that the Pn of plants decreased with increasing I in the environment and, as predicted, were all fitted well by the NIMM model. Therefore, our model provides a robust basis to evaluate and understand the influence of environmental pollution on plant photosynthesis. PMID:26561863

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

Detailed Life Cycle Assessment of Bounty Paper Towel ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a well-established and informative method of understanding the environmental impacts of consumer products across the entire value chain. However, companies committed to sustainability are interested in more methods that examine their products and activities' impacts. Methods that build on LCA strengths and illuminate other connected but less understood facets, related to social and economic impacts, would provide greater value to decision-makers. This study is a LCA that calculates the potential impacts associated with Bounty® paper towels from two facilities with different production lines, an older one (Albany, Georgia) representing established technology and the other (Box Elder, Utah), a newer state-of-the-art platform. This is unique in that it includes use of Industrial Process Systems Assessment (IPSA), new electricity and pulp data, modeled in open source software, and is the basis for the development of new integrated sustainability metrics (published separately). The new metrics can guide supply chain and manufacturing enhancements, and product design related to environmental protection and resource sustainability. Results of the LCA indicate Box Elder had improvements on environmental impact scores related to air emission indicators, except for particulate matter. Albany had lower water use impacts. After normalization of the results, fossil fuel depletion is the most critical environmental indicator. Pulp production, e

A Modelling Study for Predicting Life of Downhole Tubes Considering Service Environmental Parameters and Stress

PubMed Central

Zhao, Tianliang; Liu, Zhiyong; Du, Cuiwei; Hu, Jianpeng; Li, Xiaogang

2016-01-01

A modelling effort was made to try to predict the life of downhole tubes or casings, synthetically considering the effect of service influencing factors on corrosion rate. Based on the discussed corrosion mechanism and corrosion processes of downhole tubes, a mathematic model was established. For downhole tubes, the influencing factors are environmental parameters and stress, which vary with service duration. Stress and the environmental parameters including water content, partial pressure of H2S and CO2, pH value, total pressure and temperature, were considered to be time-dependent. Based on the model, life-span of an L80 downhole tube in oilfield Halfaya, an oilfield in Iraq, was predicted. The results show that life-span of the L80 downhole tube in Halfaya is 247 months (approximately 20 years) under initial stress of 0.1 yield strength and 641 months (approximately 53 years) under no initial stress, which indicates that an initial stress of 0.1 yield strength will reduce the life-span by more than half. PMID:28773872

Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

PubMed

Heckerman, David; Gurdasani, Deepti; Kadie, Carl; Pomilla, Cristina; Carstensen, Tommy; Martin, Hilary; Ekoru, Kenneth; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Ssenyomo, Gerald; Kamali, Anatoli; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Widmer, Christian; Sandhu, Manjinder S

2016-07-05

The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

A Distributed Model for Stressors Monitoring Based on Environmental Smart Sensors.

PubMed

de Ramón-Fernández, Alberto; Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Marcos-Jorquera, Diego; Gilart-Iglesias, Virgilio

2018-06-14

Nowadays, in many countries, stress is becoming a problem that increasingly affects the health of people. Suffering stress continuously can lead to serious behavioral disorders such as anxiety or depression. Every person, in his daily routine, can face many factors which can contribute to increase his stress level. This paper describes a flexible and distributed model to monitor environmental variables associated with stress, which provides adaptability to any environment in an agile way. This model was designed to transform stress environmental variables in value added information (key stress indicator) and to provide it to external systems, in both proactive and reactive mode. Thus, this value-added information will assist organizations and users in a personalized way helping in the detection and prevention of acute stress cases. Our proposed model is supported by an architecture that achieves the features above mentioned, in addition to interoperability, robustness, scalability, autonomy, efficient, low cost and consumption, and information availability in real time. Finally, a prototype of the system was implemented, allowing the validation of the proposal in different environments at the University of Alicante.

Depth as an Organizing Force in Pocillopora damicornis: Intra-Reef Genetic Architecture

PubMed Central

Gorospe, Kelvin D.; Karl, Stephen A.

2015-01-01

Relative to terrestrial plants, and despite similarities in life history characteristics, the potential for corals to exhibit intra-reef local adaptation in the form of genetic differentiation along an environmental gradient has received little attention. The potential for natural selection to act on such small scales is likely increased by the ability of coral larval dispersal and settlement to be influenced by environmental cues. Here, we combine genetic, spatial, and environmental data for a single patch reef in Kāne‘ohe Bay, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, USA in a landscape genetics framework to uncover environmental drivers of intra-reef genetic structuring. The genetic dataset consists of near-exhaustive sampling (n = 2352) of the coral, Pocillopora damicornis at our study site and six microsatellite genotypes. In addition, three environmental parameters – depth and two depth-independent temperature indices – were collected on a 4 m grid across 85 locations throughout the reef. We use ordinary kriging to spatially interpolate our environmental data and estimate the three environmental parameters for each colony. Partial Mantel tests indicate a significant correlation between genetic relatedness and depth while controlling for space. These results are also supported by multi-model inference. Furthermore, spatial Principle Component Analysis indicates a statistically significant genetic cline along a depth gradient. Binning the genetic dataset based on size-class revealed that the correlation between genetic relatedness and depth was significant for new recruits and increased for larger size classes, suggesting a possible role of larval habitat selection as well as selective mortality in structuring intra-reef genetic diversity. That both pre- and post-recruitment processes may be involved points to the adaptive role of larval habitat selection in increasing adult survival. The conservation importance of uncovering intra-reef patterns of genetic diversity is discussed. PMID:25806798

Environmental security control of resource utilization of shale gas' drilling cuttings containing heavy metals.

PubMed

Wang, Chao-Qiang; Lin, Xiao-Yan; Zhang, Chun; Mei, Xu-Dong

2017-09-01

The overall objective of this research project was to investigate the heavy metals environmental security control of resource utilization of shale gas' drilling cuttings. To achieve this objective, we got through theoretical calculation and testing, ultimately and preliminarily determine the content of heavy metals pollutants, and compared with related standards at domestically and abroad. The results indicated that using the second Fike's law, the theoretical model of the release amount of heavy metal can be made, and the groundwater environmental risk as main point compared with soil. This study can play a role of standard guidance on environmental security control of drilling cuttings resource utilization by the exploration and development of shale gas in our country.

Children's Environmental Health Indicators for Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia.

PubMed

Jung, Eun Mi; Kim, Eun Mee; Kang, Minah; Goldizen, Fiona; Gore, Fiona; Drisse, Marie Noel Brune; Ha, Eun Hee

Given that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia still have high child mortality rates, improved monitoring using children's environmental health indicators (CEHI) may help reduce preventable deaths by creating healthy environments. Thus, the aim of this study is to build a set of targeted CEHI that can be applied in LMICs in Asia through the CEHI initiative using a common conceptual framework. A systematic review was conducted to identify the most frequently used framework for developing CEHI. Due to the limited number of eligible records, a hand search of the reference lists and an extended search of Google Scholar were also performed. Based on our findings, we designed a set of targeted CEHI to address the children's environmental health situation in LMICs in Asia. The Delphi method was then adopted to assess the relevance, appropriateness, and feasibility of the targeted CEHI. The systematic review indicated that the Driving-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action framework and the Multiple-Exposures-Multiple-Effects model were the most common conceptual frameworks for developing CEHI. The Multiple-Exposures-Multiple-Effects model was adopted, given that its population of interest is children and its emphasis on the many-to-many relationship. Our review also showed that most of the previous studies covered upper-middle- or high-income countries. The Delphi results validated the targeted CEHI. The targeted CEHI were further specified by age group, gender, and place of residence (urban/rural) to enhance measurability. Improved monitoring systems of children's environmental health using the targeted CEHI may mitigate the data gap and enhance the quality of data in LMICs in Asia. Furthermore, critical information on the complex interaction between the environment and children's health using the CEHI will help establish a regional environmental children's health action plan, named "The Children's Environment and Health Action Plan for Asia." Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life Cycle Assessment of the MBT plant in Ano Liossia, Athens, Greece

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abeliotis, Konstadinos, E-mail: kabeli@hua.gr; Kalogeropoulos, Alexandros; Lasaridi, Katia

2012-01-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model the operation of an MBT plant in Greece based on LCA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We compare four different MBT operating scenarios (among them and with landfilling). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Even the current operation of the MBT plant is preferable to landfilling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Utilization of the MBT compost and metals generates the most environmental gains. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Thermal exploitation of RDF improves further the environmental performance of the plant. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is the application of Life Cycle Assessment to the operation of the MBT facility of Ano Liossia in the region of Attica in Greece. The regionmore » of Attica is home to almost half the population of Greece and the management of its waste is a major issue. In order to explicitly analyze the operation of the MBT plant, five scenarios were generated. Actual operation data of the MBT plant for the year 2008 were provided by the region of Attica and the LCA modeling was performed via the SimaPro 5.1 software while impact assessment was performed utilizing the Eco-indicator'99 method. The results of our analysis indicate that even the current operation of the MBT plant is preferable to landfilling. Among the scenarios of MBT operation, the one with complete utilization of the MBT outputs, i.e. compost, RDF, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, is the one that generates the most environmental gains. Our analysis indicates that the exploitation of RDF via incineration is the key factor towards improving the environmental performance of the MBT plant. Our findings provide a quantitative understanding of the MBT plant. Interpretation of results showed that proper operation of the modern waste management systems can lead to substantial reduction of environmental impacts and savings of resources.« less

Modeling the environmental growth of Pseudogymnoascus destructans and its impact on the white-nose syndrome epidemic.

PubMed

Reynolds, Hannah T; Ingersoll, Tom; Barton, Hazel A

2015-04-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has had a devastating effect on North American bat populations. The causal agent of WNS is the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), which has been shown to persist in caves after the eradication of host populations. As nonpathogenic Pseudogymnoascus spp. display saprophytic growth and are among the most commonly isolated fungi from caves, we examined whether Pd could grow in cave sediments and the contribution such growth could have to WNS disease progression. We inoculated a range of diverse cave sediments and demonstrated the growth of Pd in all sediments tested. These data indicate that environmental growth of Pd could lead to the accumulation of spores above the estimated infection threshold for WNS, allowing environment-to-bat infection. The obtained growth parameters were then used in a susceptible-infected-susceptible mathematic model to determine the possible contribution of environmental Pd growth to WNS disease progression in a colony of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus). This model suggests that the environmental growth of Pd would increase WNS infection rates, particularly in colonies experiencing longer hibernation periods or in hibernacula with high levels of organic detritus. The model also suggests that once introduced, environmental Pd growth would allow the persistence of this pathogen within infected hibernacula for decades, greatly compromising the success of bat reintroduction strategies. Together these data suggest that Pd is not reliant on its host for survival and is capable of environmental growth and amplification that could contribute to the rapid progression and long-term persistence of WNS in the hibernacula of threatened North American bats.

Environmental performance policy indicators for the public sector: the case of the defence sector.

PubMed

Ramos, Tomás B; Alves, Inês; Subtil, Rui; Joanaz de Melo, João

2007-03-01

The development of environmental performance policy indicators for public services, and in particular for the defence sector, is an emerging issue. Despite a number of recent initiatives there has been little work done in this area, since the other sectors usually focused on are agriculture, transport, industry, tourism and energy. This type of tool can be an important component for environmental performance evaluation at policy level, when integrated in the general performance assessment system of public missions and activities. The main objective of this research was to develop environmental performance policy indicators for the public sector, specifically applied to the defence sector. Previous research included an assessment of the environmental profile, through the evaluation of how environmental management practices have been adopted in this sector and an assessment of environmental aspects and impacts. This paper builds upon that previous research, developing an indicator framework--SEPI--supported by the selection and construction of environmental performance indicators. Another aim is to discuss how the current environmental indicator framework can be integrated into overall performance management. The Portuguese defence sector is presented and the usefulness of this methodology demonstrated. Feasibility and relevancy criteria are applied to evaluate the set of indicators proposed, allowing indicators to be scored and indicators for the policy level to be obtained.

Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China

PubMed Central

Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

2015-01-01

Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

Estimating virus occurrence using Bayesian modeling in multiple drinking water systems of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varughese, Eunice A.; Brinkman, Nichole E; Anneken, Emily M; Cashdollar, Jennifer S; Fout, G. Shay; Furlong, Edward T.; Kolpin, Dana W.; Glassmeyer, Susan T.; Keely, Scott P

2017-01-01

incorporated into a Bayesian model to more accurately determine viral load in both source and treated water. Results of the Bayesian model indicated that viruses are present in source water and treated water. By using a Bayesian framework that incorporates inhibition, as well as many other parameters that affect viral detection, this study offers an approach for more accurately estimating the occurrence of viral pathogens in environmental waters.

Characterization of environmental quality of forest fragments changes in Jundiaí-Mirim river basin-Brazil using the Markov Chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasimoto Fengler, Felipe; Leite de Moraes, Jener Fernando; Irio Ribeiro, Admilson; Peche Filho, Afonso; Araujo de Medeiros, Gerson; Baldin Damame, Desirée; Márcia Longo, Regina

2015-04-01

In Brazil is common practice the concurrency of large urban centers water catchment in distant sites. There's no policy to preserve strategic springs in the urban territory. Thus, rural areas, located in the surrounds of municipals, usually provide water and others environment services to the population that reside on cities. The Jundiaí-Mirim river basin, located in the most urbanized state in Brazil, São Paulo, composes an interesting example of this situation. It is located in a rural area near large urban centers, with large industrial parks, near the capital of state. As result of expansion of the cities on its surrounds their lands have had a historic of monetary valorization, making its territories attractive to the housing market. Consequently, the region has an intense process of urbanization that resulted in an increasing environmental disturbance in the areas of natural vegetation. In the other hand, the watershed is the principal water supplier of Jundiaí city, and houses forest remaining of an important Biome in Brazil, the Atlantic Rain Forest. Given the need to preserve its water production capacity and the forest remnants there, this study modeled the environmental quality of forest fragments through indicators of disturbance and evaluated the changes that occur between 1972 and 2013 using the Markov Chain model. The environment quality was determined by nine indicators of environmental disturbance (distance of urban areas, roads, edge land use, size, distance of others forest fragments, land capacity of use, watershed forest cover, number of forest fragments in the watersheds, shape of the forest fragment), obtained by techniques of Geoprocessing, and integrated by Multicriteria Analysis. The Markov Chain model showed a constant tendency of deteriorating in natural vegetation environmental quality, attributed to the intense process of occupation of the river basin. The results showed a historical trend of transformation in forest fragments with very low environmental quality to others uses and a static behavior of forest fragments with high environmental quality. It was explained by the tendency of occupation in forest fragments near urban areas, roads, with small size and high perturbation, and difficulties in occupation of forest fragments with high size, isolated from urban areas end roads. It was concluded that: (a) urbanization and deforestation of natural vegetation were primarily responsible for changes in environmental quality; (b) there is a need to create public policies to preserve the natural vegetation in the Jundiaí-Mirim river basin.

ECOTOXICOGENOMICS: EXPOSURE INDICATORS USING ESTS AND SUBTRACTIVE LIBRARIES FOR MULTI-LIFE STAGES OF PIMEPHALES

EPA Science Inventory

Ecotoxicogenomics is research that identifies patterns of gene expression in wildlife and predicts effects of environmental stressors. We are developing a multiple stressor, multiple life stage exposure model using the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), initially studying fou...

Mercury enrichment indicates volcanic triggering of Valanginian environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonnier, Guillaume; Morales, Chloé; Duchamp-Alphonse, Stéphanie; Westermann, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Föllmi, Karl B.

2017-01-01

The Valanginian stage (Early Cretaceous) includes an episode of significant environmental changes, which are well defined by a positive δ13C excursion. This globally recorded excursion indicates important perturbations in the carbon cycle, which has tentatively been associated with a pulse in volcanic activity and the formation of the Paraná-Etendeka large igneous province (LIP). Uncertainties in existing age models preclude, however, its positive identification as a trigger of Valanginian environmental changes. Here we report that in Valanginian sediments recovered from a drill core in Wąwał (Polish Basin, Poland), and from outcrops in the Breggia Gorge (Lombardian Basin, southern Switzerland), and Orpierre and Angles (Vocontian Basin, SE France), intervals at or near the onset of the positive δ13C excursion are significantly enriched in mercury (Hg). The persistence of the Hg anomaly in Hg/TOC, Hg/phyllosilicate, and Hg/Fe ratios shows that organic-matter scavenging and/or adsorbtion onto clay minerals or hydrous iron oxides only played a limited role. Volcanic outgassing was most probably the primary source of the Hg enrichments, which demonstrate that an important magmatic pulse triggered the Valanginian environmental perturbations.

A NEW METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT BASED ON BASIN GEOLOGY. APPLICATION TO EBRO BASIN.

PubMed

2018-02-01

The determination of environmental flows is one of the commonest practical actions implemented on European rivers to promote their good ecological status. In Mediterranean rivers, groundwater inflows are a decisive factor in streamflow maintenance. This work examines the relationship between the lithological composition of the Ebro basin (Spain) and dry season flows in order to establish a model that can assist in the calculation of environmental flow rates.Due to the lack of information on the hydrogeological characteristics of the studied basin, the variable representing groundwater inflows has been estimated in a very simple way. The explanatory variable used in the proposed model is easy to calculate and is sufficiently powerful to take into account all the required characteristics.The model has a high coefficient of determination, indicating that it is accurate for the intended purpose. The advantage of this method compared to other methods is that it requires very little data and provides a simple estimate of environmental flow. It is also independent of the basin area and the river section order.The results of this research also contribute to knowledge of the variables that influence low flow periods and low flow rates on rivers in the Ebro basin.

Three-and-a-half-factor model? The genetic and environmental structure of the CBCL/6-18 internalizing grouping.

PubMed

Franić, Sanja; Dolan, Conor V; Borsboom, Denny; van Beijsterveldt, Catherina E M; Boomsma, Dorret I

2014-05-01

In the present article, multivariate genetic item analyses were employed to address questions regarding the ontology and the genetic and environmental etiology of the Anxious/Depressed, Withdrawn, and Somatic Complaints syndrome dimensions of the Internalizing grouping of the Child Behavior Checklist/6-18 (CBCL/6-18). Using common and independent pathway genetic factor modeling, it was examined whether these syndrome dimensions can be ascribed a realist ontology. Subsequently, the structures of the genetic and environmental influences giving rise to the observed symptom covariation were examined. Maternal ratings of a population-based sample of 17,511 Dutch twins of mean age 7.4 (SD = 0.4) on the items of the Internalizing grouping of the Dutch CBCL/6-18 were analyzed. Applications of common and independent pathway modeling demonstrated that the Internalizing syndrome dimensions may be better understood as a composite of unconstrained genetic and environmental influences than as causally relevant entities generating the observed symptom covariation. Furthermore, the results indicate a common genetic basis for anxiety, depression, and withdrawn behavior, with the distinction between these syndromes being driven by the individual-specific environment. Implications for the substantive interpretation of these syndrome dimensions are discussed.

Impact of Individual-, Environmental-, and Policy-Level Factors on Health Care Utilization Among US Farmworkers

PubMed Central

Mayer, Joni A.; Gabbard, Susan; Kronick, Richard G.; Roesch, Scott C.; Malcarne, Vanessa L.; Zuniga, Maria L.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined individual-, environmental-, and policy-level correlates of US farmworker health care utilization, guided by the behavioral model for vulnerable populations and the ecological model. Methods. The 2006 and 2007 administrations of the National Agricultural Workers Survey (n = 2884) provided the primary data. Geographic information systems, the 2005 Uniform Data System, and rurality and border proximity indices provided environmental variables. To identify factors associated with health care use, we performed logistic regression using weighted hierarchical linear modeling. Results. Approximately half (55.3%) of farmworkers utilized US health care in the previous 2 years. Several factors were independently associated with use at the individual level (gender, immigration and migrant status, English proficiency, transportation access, health status, and non-US health care utilization), the environmental level (proximity to US–Mexico border), and the policy level (insurance status and workplace payment structure). County Federally Qualified Health Center resources were not independently associated. Conclusions. We identified farmworkers at greatest risk for poor access. We made recommendations for change to farmworker health care access at all 3 levels of influence, emphasizing Federally Qualified Health Center service delivery. PMID:21330594

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on the PROMETHEE II outranking method. Future work on the SASSCAL DSS will entail automation of this process, as well as its application to other hydrological models and land-use and/or climate change scenarios.

Love Canal Emergency Declaration Area habitability study. Volume 2. Air assessment: indicator chemicals. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Environmental studies were conducted to provide data that could be used by the Commissioner of Health for the State of New York in determining whether the Emergency Declaration Area (EDA) surrounding the Love Canal hazardous-waste site is habitable. An air assessment was conducted for Love Canal Indicator Chemicals. Homes throughout the EDA were sampled using the Trace Atmospheric Gas Analyzer Model 6000E.

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Systems via Multiple Indices based on Statistical Moments of Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Dell'Oca, A.

2017-12-01

We propose to ground sensitivity of uncertain parameters of environmental models on a set of indices based on the main (statistical) moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, of the probability density function (pdf) of a target model output. This enables us to perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of a model in terms of multiple statistical moments and yields a quantification of the impact of model parameters on features driving the shape of the pdf of model output. Our GSA approach includes the possibility of being coupled with the construction of a reduced complexity model that allows approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. We demonstrate our approach through a variety of test cases. These include a commonly used analytical benchmark, a simplified model representing pumping in a coastal aquifer, a laboratory-scale tracer experiment, and the migration of fracturing fluid through a naturally fractured reservoir (source) to reach an overlying formation (target). Our strategy allows discriminating the relative importance of model parameters to the four statistical moments considered. We also provide an appraisal of the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through the selected surrogate model. Our results suggest that one might need to construct a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The methodological framework we propose can assist the development of analysis techniques targeted to model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

An environmental generalised Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator and an environmental generalised Hicks-Moorsteen productivity index.

PubMed

Abad, A

2015-09-15

The purpose of this paper is to introduce an environmental generalised productivity indicator and its ratio-based counterpart. The innovative environmental generalised total factor productivity measures inherit the basic structure of both Hicks-Moorsteen productivity index and Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator. This methodological contribution shows that these new environmental generalised total factor productivity measures yield the earlier standard Hicks-Moorsteen index and Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen indicator, as well as environmental performance index, as special cases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meeting report: development of environmental health indicators in Brazil and other countries in the americas.

PubMed

Carneiro, Fernando F; Oliveira, Mara Lúcia C; Netto, Guilherme F; Galvão, Luis A C; Cancio, Jacira A; Bonini, Estela M; Corvalan, Carlos F

2006-09-01

This report summarizes the Brazilian experience on the design and implementation of environmental health, with contributions from Argentina, Canada, and Cuba, presented at the International Symposium on the Development of Indicators for Environmental Health Integrated Management, held in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, on 17-18 June 2004. The methodology for the development of environmental health indicators has been used as a reference in the implementation of environmental health surveillance in Brazil. This methodology has provided tools and processes to facilitate the understanding and to measure the determinants of risks to environmental health, to help decision makers control those risks. Key words: environmental health indicators, environmental health surveillance, integrated management.

Faunal assemblages and multi-scale habitat patterns in headwater tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River - an unregulated river embedded within a multiple-use landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, H.H.; Hodgson, G.R.; Duda, J.J.; Emlen, J.M.

2010-01-01

Headwaters can represent 80% of stream kilometers in a watershed, and they also have unique physical and biological properties that have only recently been recognized for their importance in sustaining healthy functioning stream networks and their ecological services. We sampled 60 headwater tributaries in the South Fork Trinity River, a 2,430 km2, mostly forested, multiple-use watershed in northwestern California. Our objectives were: (1) to differentiate unique headwater types using 69 abiotic and vegetation variables measured at three spatial scales, and then to reduce these to informative subsets; (2) determine if distinct biota occupied the different tributary types; (3) determine the environmental attributes associated with the presence and abundance of these biotic assemblages; and (4) using niche modeling, determine key attribute thresholds to illustrate how these biota could be employed as metrics of system integrity and ecological services. Several taxa were sufficiently abundant and widespread to use as bio-indicators: the presence and abundance of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species richness, and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) represented different trophic positions, value as commercial resources (steelhead), sensitivity to environmental stress (amphibians), and indicators of biodiversity (herpetofauna species richness). Herpetofauna species richness did not differ, but abundances of steelhead trout, signal crayfish, and amphibian richness all differed significantly among tributary types. Niche models indicated that distribution and abundance patterns in both riparian and aquatic environments were associated with physical and structural attributes at multiple spatial scales, both within and around reaches. The bio-indicators responded to unique sets of attributes, reflecting the high environmental heterogeneity in headwater tributaries across this large watershed. These niche attributes represented a wide range of headwater environments, indicating responses to a number of natural and anthropogenic conditions, and demonstrated the value of using a suite of bio-indicators to elucidate watershed conditions, and to examine numerous disturbances that may influence ecological integrity.

A methodology to incorporate life cycle analysis and the triple bottom line mechanism for sustainable management of industrial enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ling; Lin, Li

2004-02-01

Since 1970"s, the environmental protection movement has challenged industries to increase their investment in Environmentally Conscious Manufacturing (ECM) techniques and management tools. Social considerations for global citizens and their descendants also motivated the examination on the complex issues of sustainable development beyond the immediate economic impact. Consequently, industrial enterprises have started to understand sustainable development in considering the Triple Bottom Line (TBL): economic prosperity, environmental quality and social justice. For the management, however, a lack of systematic ECM methodologies hinders their effort in planning, evaluating, reporting and auditing of sustainability. To address this critical need, this research develops a framework of a sustainable management system by incorporating a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of industrial operations with the TBL mechanism. A TBL metric system with seven sets of indices for the TBL elements and their complex relations is identified for the comprehensive evaluation of a company"s sustainability performance. Utilities of the TBL indices are estimated to represent the views of various stakeholders, including the company, investors, employees and the society at large. Costs of these indices are also captured to reflect the company"s effort in meeting the utilities. An optimization model is formulated to maximize the economic, environmental and social benefits by the company"s effort in developing sustainable strategies. To promote environmental and social consciousness, the methodology can significantly facilitate management decisions by its capabilities of including "non-business" values and external costs that the company has not contemplated before.

Mastitis of periparturient Holstein cattle: a phenotypic and genetic study.

PubMed

Detilleux, J C; Kehrli, M E; Freeman, A E; Fox, L K; Kelley, D H

1995-10-01

Environmental and genetic factors affecting somatic cell scores, clinical mastitis, and IMI by minor and major pathogens were studied on 137 periparturient Holstein cows selected for milk production. Environmental effects were obtained by generalized least squares and logistic regression. Genetic parameters were from BLUP and threshold animal models. Lactation number affected the number of quarters with clinical mastitis and the number of quarters infected with minor pathogens. The DIM affected somatic cell score and number of quarters infected with major pathogens. Heritabilities for all mastitis indicators averaged 10%, but differences occurred among the indicators. Correlations between breeding values of the number of quarters infected with minor pathogens and the number infected with major pathogens were antagonistic and statistically significant.

Environment and air pollution like gun and bullet for low-income countries: war for better health and wealth.

PubMed

Zou, Xiang; Azam, Muhammad; Islam, Talat; Zaman, Khalid

2016-02-01

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of environmental indicators and air pollution on "health" and "wealth" for the low-income countries. The study used a number of promising variables including arable land, fossil fuel energy consumption, population density, and carbon dioxide emissions that simultaneously affect the health (i.e., health expenditures per capita) and wealth (i.e., GDP per capita) of the low-income countries. The general representation for low-income countries has shown by aggregate data that consist of 39 observations from the period of 1975-2013. The study decomposes the data set from different econometric tests for managing robust inferences. The study uses temporal forecasting for the health and wealth model by a vector error correction model (VECM) and an innovation accounting technique. The results show that environment and air pollution is the menace for low-income countries' health and wealth. Among environmental indicators, arable land has the largest variance to affect health and wealth for the next 10-year period, while air pollution exerts the least contribution to change health and wealth of low-income countries. These results indicate the prevalence of war situation, where environment and air pollution become visible like "gun" and "bullet" for low-income countries. There are required sound and effective macroeconomic policies to combat with the environmental evils that affect the health and wealth of the low-income countries.

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

2012-01-01

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Model of Environmental Problems Priority Arising from the use of Environmental and Natural Resources in Machinery Sectors of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutthichaimethee, Pruethsan; Sawangdee, Yothin

2016-05-01

The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to evaluate environmental impacts from the Machinery sectors of Thailand, leading to more sustainable consumption and production in this sector of the economy. The factors used to calculate the Forward Linkage, Backward Linkage and Real Benefit were the Total Environmental Costs. The highest total environmental cost was Railway Equipment which needs to be resolved immediately because it uses natural resources more than its carrying capacity, higher environmental cost than standard, and contributes low real benefit. Electric Accumulator & Battery, Secondary Special Industrial Machinery, Motorcycle, Bicycle & Other Carriages, and Engines and Turbines need to be monitored closely because they are able to link to other production sectors more than any other production sectors do, and they have high environmental cost. To decide a sustainable development strategy of the country, therefore, results of this research must be used to support decision-making.

Advanced Decision-Support for Coastal Beach Health: Virtual Beach 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

Virtual Beach is a free decision-support system designed to help beach managers and researchers construct, evaluate, and operate site-specific statistical models that can predict levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) based on environmental conditions that are more readily mea...

Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) is a geographically-based model that helps policy makers and communities explore data on releases of toxic substances from industrial facilities reporting to EPA??s Toxics Release Inventory (TRI). By analyzing TRI information together with simplified risk factors, such as the amount of chemical released, its fate and transport through the environment, each chemical??s relative toxicity, and the number of people potentially exposed, RSEI calculates a numeric score, which is designed to only be compared to other scores calculated by RSEI. Because it is designed as a screening-level model, RSEI uses worst-case assumptions about toxicity and potential exposure where data are lacking, and also uses simplifying assumptions to reduce the complexity of the calculations. A more refined assessment is required before any conclusions about health impacts can be drawn. RSEI is used to establish priorities for further investigation and to look at changes in potential impacts over time. Users can save resources by conducting preliminary analyses with RSEI.

Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

PubMed

Sano, Larissa L; Bartell, Steven M; Landrum, Peter F

2005-10-01

A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.

Predicting invertebrate assemblage composition from harvesting pressure and environmental characteristics on tropical reef flats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, H.; Dumas, P.; Ponton, D.; Ferraris, J.

2012-03-01

Invertebrates represent an essential component of coral reef ecosystems; they are ecologically important and a major resource, but their assemblages remain largely unknown, particularly on Pacific islands. Understanding their distribution and building predictive models of community composition as a function of environmental variables therefore constitutes a key issue for resource management. The goal of this study was to define and classify the main environmental factors influencing tropical invertebrate distributions in New Caledonian reef flats and to test the resulting predictive model. Invertebrate assemblages were sampled by visual counting during 2 years and 2 seasons, then coupled to different environmental conditions (habitat composition, hydrodynamics and sediment characteristics) and harvesting status (MPA vs. non-MPA and islets vs. coastal flats). Environmental conditions were described by a principal component analysis (PCA), and contributing variables were selected. Permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) was used to test the effects of different factors (status, flat, year and season) on the invertebrate assemblage composition. Multivariate regression trees (MRT) were then used to hierarchically classify the effects of environmental and harvesting variables. MRT model explained at least 60% of the variation in structure of invertebrate communities. Results highlighted the influence of status (MPA vs. non-MPA) and location (islet vs. coastal flat), followed by habitat composition, organic matter content, hydrodynamics and sampling year. Predicted assemblages defined by indicator families were very different for each environment-exploitation scenario and correctly matched a calibration data matrix. Predictions from MRT including both environmental variables and harvesting pressure can be useful for management of invertebrates in coral reef environments.

Analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, V. G.; Kiseleva, T. V.

2018-05-01

In the paper the features of the analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise are considered. The purpose of the study is to improve the system of environmental and economic analysis at the enterprise for more accurate forecasting of its main environmental and economic indicators. The study of the main approaches to the implementation of environmental and economic analysis based on the corresponding systems of indicators with identification of the most significant factors was carried out. The main result of the study is the choice of a system for analyzing the environmental and economic indicators, maximally oriented to a specific enterprise, taking into account its production specific features. The practical significance of the study consists in the selection of an adequate system of indicators at enterprises to improve the effectiveness from preparation of an environmentally safe management decision.

Gene-environment studies: any advantage over environmental studies?

PubMed

Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Hemminki, Kari

2007-07-01

Gene-environment studies have been motivated by the likely existence of prevalent low-risk genes that interact with common environmental exposures. The present study assessed the statistical advantage of the simultaneous consideration of genes and environment to investigate the effect of environmental risk factors on disease. In particular, we contemplated the possibility that several genes modulate the environmental effect. Environmental exposures, genotypes and phenotypes were simulated according to a wide range of parameter settings. Different models of gene-gene-environment interaction were considered. For each parameter combination, we estimated the probability of detecting the main environmental effect, the power to identify the gene-environment interaction and the frequency of environmentally affected individuals at which environmental and gene-environment studies show the same statistical power. The proportion of cases in the population attributable to the modeled risk factors was also calculated. Our data indicate that environmental exposures with weak effects may account for a significant proportion of the population prevalence of the disease. A general result was that, if the environmental effect was restricted to rare genotypes, the power to detect the gene-environment interaction was higher than the power to identify the main environmental effect. In other words, when few individuals contribute to the overall environmental effect, individual contributions are large and result in easily identifiable gene-environment interactions. Moreover, when multiple genes interacted with the environment, the statistical benefit of gene-environment studies was limited to those studies that included major contributors to the gene-environment interaction. The advantage of gene-environment over plain environmental studies also depends on the inheritance mode of the involved genes, on the study design and, to some extend, on the disease prevalence.

Research of Environmental and Economic Interactions of Coke And By-Product Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, Vladimir; Kiseleva, Tamara; Bugrova, Svetlana; Muromtseva, Alina; Mikhailova, Yana

2017-11-01

The issues of showing relations between environmental and economic indicators (further - environmental and economic interactions) of coke and by-product process are considered in the article. The purpose of the study is to reveal the regularities of the functioning of the local environmental and economic system on the basis of revealed spectrum of environmental and economic interactions. A simplified scheme of the environmental and economic system "coke and by-product process - the environment" was developed. The forms of the investigated environmental-economic interactions were visualized and the selective interpretation of the tightness of the established connection was made. The main result of the work is modeling system of environmental and economic interactions that allows increasing the efficiency of local ecological and economic system management and optimizing the "interests" of an industrial enterprise - the source of negative impact on the environment. The results of the survey can be recommended to government authorities and industrial enterprises with a wide range of negative impact forms to support the adoption of effective management decisions aimed at sustainable environmental and economic development of the region or individual municipalities.

Environmental Assessment and Monitoring with ICAMS (Image Characterization and Modeling System) Using Multiscale Remote-Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lam, N.; Qiu, H.-I.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Zhao, Wei

1997-01-01

With the rapid increase in spatial data, especially in the NASA-EOS (Earth Observing System) era, it is necessary to develop efficient and innovative tools to handle and analyze these data so that environmental conditions can be assessed and monitored. A main difficulty facing geographers and environmental scientists in environmental assessment and measurement is that spatial analytical tools are not easily accessible. We have recently developed a remote sensing/GIS software module called Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) to provide specialized spatial analytical tools for the measurement and characterization of satellite and other forms of spatial data. ICAMS runs on both the Intergraph-MGE and Arc/info UNIX and Windows-NT platforms. The main techniques in ICAMS include fractal measurement methods, variogram analysis, spatial autocorrelation statistics, textural measures, aggregation techniques, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and delineation of land/water and vegetated/non-vegetated boundaries. In this paper, we demonstrate the main applications of ICAMS on the Intergraph-MGE platform using Landsat Thematic Mapper images from the city of Lake Charles, Louisiana. While the utilities of ICAMS' spatial measurement methods (e.g., fractal indices) in assessing environmental conditions remain to be researched, making the software available to a wider scientific community can permit the techniques in ICAMS to be evaluated and used for a diversity of applications. The findings from these various studies should lead to improved algorithms and more reliable models for environmental assessment and monitoring.

Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia.

PubMed

Ahmad, Rohani; Suzilah, Ismail; Wan Najdah, Wan Mohamad Ali; Topek, Omar; Mustafakamal, Ibrahim; Lee, Han Lim

2018-01-01

A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so that preventive interventions can be taken early to avert the outbreaks.

The role of cultural models in local perceptions of SFM--differences and similarities of interest groups from three boreal regions.

PubMed

Berninger, Kati; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Messier, Christian

2009-02-01

Differences in the way local and regional interest groups perceive Sustainable Forest Management in regions with different forest use histories were studied using Southeastern Finland, the Mauricie in Quebec and Central Labrador in Canada as examples of regions with high, medium and low importance of commercial forestry. We present a conceptual model illustrating the cyclic interaction between the forest, cultural models about forests and forest management. We hypothesized that peoples' perceptions would be influenced by their cultural models about forests and would thus vary amongst regions with different forest use histories and among different interest groups. The weightings of the environmental, economic and social components of sustainability as well as themes important for each of the interest groups were elicited using individual listing of SFM indicators and group work aimed at developing a consensus opinion on a common indicator list. In Southeastern Finland the views of the different groups were polarized along the environment-economy axis, whereas in Central Labrador all groups were environmentally oriented. The social dimension was low overall except among the Metis and the Innu in Labrador. Only environmental groups were similar in all three research regions, the largest differences between regions were found among the forestry professionals in their weightings concerning economy and nature. As the importance of commercial forestry increased, a greater importance of economic issues was expressed whereas the opposite trend was observed for issues regarding nature. Also inter-group differences grew as the importance of commercial forestry increased in the region. Forest management and forest use can be seen as factors strongly influencing peoples' cultural models on forests.

Measuring the distribution of equity in terms of energy, environmental, and economic costs in the fuel cycles of alternative fuel vehicles with hydrogen pathway scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Patrick E.

Numerous analyses exist which examine the energy, environmental, and economic tradeoffs between conventional gasoline vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen produced from a variety of sources. These analyses are commonly referred to as "E3" analyses because of their inclusion of Energy, Environmental, and Economic indicators. Recent research as sought a means to incorporate social Equity into E3 analyses, thus producing an "E4" analysis. However, E4 analyses in the realm of energy policy are uncommon, and in the realm of alternative transportation fuels, E4 analyses are extremely rare. This dissertation discusses the creation of a novel E4 simulation tool usable to weigh energy, environmental, economic, and equity trade-offs between conventional gasoline vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles, with specific application to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The model, dubbed the F uel Life-cycle Analysis of Solar Hydrogen -- Energy, Environment, Economic & Equity model, or FLASH-E4, is a total fuel-cycle model that combines energy, environmental, and economic analysis methodologies with the addition of an equity analysis component. The model is capable of providing results regarding total fuel-cycle energy consumption, emissions production, energy and environmental cost, and level of social equity within a population in which low-income drivers use CGV technology and high-income drivers use a number of advanced hydrogen FCV technologies. Using theories of equity and social indicators conceptually embodied in the Lorenz Curve and Gini Index, the equity of the distribution of societal energy and environmental costs are measured for a population in which some drivers use CGVs and other drivers use FCVs. It is found, based on baseline input data representative of the United States (US), that the distribution of energy and environmental costs in a population in which some drivers use CGVs and other drivers use natural gas-based hydrogen FCVs can be moderately inequitable. However, the distribution of energy and environmental costs in a population in which some drivers use CGVs and other drivers use solar-electrolysis-based FCVs can be extremely inequitable. Further, it is found that the method of production and delivery of hydrogen (i.e. centralized production or refueling station-based production) can have an impact on the equity of energy and environmental costs. The implications of these results are interesting, in that wealthy people purchase FCVs that have high upfront costs and very low societal energy and environmental costs. Simultaneously, however, low-income people purchase CGVs that have low upfront costs and very high societal energy and environmental costs. In this situation, due to the high-polluting nature of CGV technology in relation to FCV technology, CGV drivers account for more than their equitable share of energy and environmental costs. Scenarios are conducted which explore modifications of assumptions, such as the price of oil, price of natural gas, cost to offset emissions, consumer purchase price of FCVs, and the level of taxation on the cost streams. Among other findings, it is found that altering the purchase price of an FCV has the greatest impact on social equity whereas altering the cost to offset fuel-cycle emissions has the least impact, indicating that policy mechanisms aimed at incentivizing FCVs may have a more positive impact on social equity than policies aimed at mitigating emissions. Based on the results of the scenario analysis, policy recommendations are formulated which seek to maximize social equity in populations in which not all drivers use the same vehicular technology. The policies, if implemented as a single portfolio, would assist a systematic deviation away from the fossil fuel energy economy while ensuring that social equity is preserved to the greatest degree possible. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Comparing three models to estimate transpiration of desert shrubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiqin; Yu, Zhongbo; Ji, Xibin; Sudicky, Edward A.

2017-07-01

The role of environmental variables in controlling transpiration (Ec) is an important, but not well-understood, aspect of transpiration modeling in arid desert regions. Taking three dominant desert shrubs, Haloxylon ammodendron, Nitraria tangutorum, and Calligonum mongolicum, as examples, we aim to evaluate the applicability of three transpiration models, i.e. the modified Jarvis-Stewart model (MJS), the simplified process-based model (BTA), and the artificial neural network model (ANN) at different temporal scales. The stem sap flow of each species was monitored using the stem heat balance approach over both the 2014 and 2015 main growing seasons. Concurrent environmental variables were also measured with an automatic weather station. The ANN model generally produced better simulations of Ec than the MJS and BTA models at both hourly and daily scales, indicating its advantage in solving complicated, nonlinear problems between transpiration rate and environmental driving forces. The solar radiation and vapor pressure deficit were crucial variables in modeling Ec for all three species. The performance of the MJS and ANN models was significantly improved by incorporating root-zone soil moisture. We also found that the difference between hourly and daily fitted parameter values was considerable for the MJS and BTA models. Therefore, these models need to be recalibrated when applied at different temporal scales. This study provides insights regarding the application and performance of current transpiration models in arid desert regions, and thus provides a deeper understanding of eco-hydrological processes and sustainable ecosystem management at the study site.

Beyond greenspace: an ecological study of population general health and indicators of natural environment type and quality.

PubMed

Wheeler, Benedict W; Lovell, Rebecca; Higgins, Sahran L; White, Mathew P; Alcock, Ian; Osborne, Nicholas J; Husk, Kerryn; Sabel, Clive E; Depledge, Michael H

2015-04-30

Many studies suggest that exposure to natural environments ('greenspace') enhances human health and wellbeing. Benefits potentially arise via several mechanisms including stress reduction, opportunity and motivation for physical activity, and reduced air pollution exposure. However, the evidence is mixed and sometimes inconclusive. One explanation may be that "greenspace" is typically treated as a homogenous environment type. However, recent research has revealed that different types and qualities of natural environments may influence health and wellbeing to different extents. This ecological study explores this issue further using data on land cover type, bird species richness, water quality and protected or designated status to create small-area environmental indicators across Great Britain. Associations between these indicators and age/sex standardised prevalence of both good and bad health from the 2011 Census were assessed using linear regression models. Models were adjusted for indicators of socio-economic deprivation and rurality, and also investigated effect modification by these contextual characteristics. Positive associations were observed between good health prevalence and the density of the greenspace types, "broadleaf woodland", "arable and horticulture", "improved grassland", "saltwater" and "coastal", after adjusting for potential confounders. Inverse associations with bad health prevalence were observed for the same greenspace types, with the exception of "saltwater". Land cover diversity and density of protected/designated areas were also associated with good and bad health in the predicted manner. Bird species richness (an indicator of local biodiversity) was only associated with good health prevalence. Surface water quality, an indicator of general local environmental condition, was associated with good and bad health prevalence contrary to the manner expected, with poorer water quality associated with better population health. Effect modification by income deprivation and urban/rural status was observed for several of the indicators. The findings indicate that the type, quality and context of 'greenspace' should be considered in the assessment of relationships between greenspace and human health and wellbeing. Opportunities exist to further integrate approaches from ecosystem services and public health perspectives to maximise opportunities to inform policies for health and environmental improvement and protection.

Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna, R.; Iqbal, J.; Gorai, A. K.; Pathak, G.; Tuluri, F.; Tchounwou, P. B.

2015-12-01

Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D), net recharge ( R), aquifer media ( A), soil media ( S), topography or slope ( T), impact of vadose zone ( I) and hydraulic Conductivity( C)] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS.

PubMed

Krishna, R; Iqbal, J; Gorai, A K; Pathak, G; Tuluri, F; Tchounwou, P B

2015-12-01

Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D ), net recharge ( R ), aquifer media ( A ), soil media ( S ), topography or slope ( T ), impact of vadose zone ( I ) and hydraulic Conductivity( C )] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

Modeling of surface dust concentrations using neural networks and kriging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buevich, Alexander G.; Medvedev, Alexander N.; Sergeev, Alexander P.; Tarasov, Dmitry A.; Shichkin, Andrey V.; Sergeeva, Marina V.; Atanasova, T. B.

2016-12-01

Creating models which are able to accurately predict the distribution of pollutants based on a limited set of input data is an important task in environmental studies. In the paper two neural approaches: (multilayer perceptron (MLP)) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN)), and two geostatistical approaches: (kriging and cokriging), are using for modeling and forecasting of dust concentrations in snow cover. The area of study is under the influence of dust emissions from a copper quarry and a several industrial companies. The comparison of two mentioned approaches is conducted. Three indices are used as the indicators of the models accuracy: the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown better accuracy. When considering all indices, the most precision model was the GRNN, which uses as input parameters for modeling the coordinates of sampling points and the distance to the probable emissions source. The results of work confirm that trained ANN may be more suitable tool for modeling of dust concentrations in snow cover.

Urban Expansion Modeling Approach Based on Multi-Agent System and Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Y. N.; Yu, M. M.; Li, S. N.

2018-04-01

Urban expansion is a land-use change process that transforms non-urban land into urban land. This process results in the loss of natural vegetation and increase in impervious surfaces. Urban expansion also alters the hydrologic cycling, atmospheric circulation, and nutrient cycling processes and generates enormous environmental and social impacts. Urban expansion monitoring and modeling are crucial to understanding urban expansion process, mechanism, and its environmental impacts, and predicting urban expansion in future scenarios. Therefore, it is important to study urban expansion monitoring and modeling approaches. We proposed to simulate urban expansion by combining CA and MAS model. The proposed urban expansion model based on MSA and CA was applied to a case study area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, China. The results show that this model can capture urban expansion with good adaptability. The Kappa coefficient of the simulation results is 0.75, which indicated that the combination of MAS and CA offered the better simulation result.

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera

PubMed Central

Pearson, Paul N.; Dunkley Jones, Tom; Farnsworth, Alexander; Lunt, Daniel J.; Markwick, Paul; Purvis, Andy

2016-01-01

The Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera (PF) (calcareous zooplankton) have arguably the most detailed fossil record of any group. The quality of this record allows models of environmental controls on macroecology, developed for Recent assemblages, to be tested on intervals with profoundly different climatic conditions. These analyses shed light on the role of long-term global cooling in establishing the modern latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)—one of the most powerful generalizations in biogeography and macroecology. Here, we test the transferability of environment-diversity models developed for modern PF assemblages to the Eocene epoch (approx. 56–34 Ma), a time of pronounced global warmth. Environmental variables from global climate models are combined with Recent environment–diversity models to predict Eocene richness gradients, which are then compared with observed patterns. The results indicate the modern LDG—lower richness towards the poles—developed through the Eocene. Three possible causes are suggested for the mismatch between statistical model predictions and data in the Early Eocene: the environmental estimates are inaccurate, the statistical model misses a relevant variable, or the intercorrelations among facets of diversity—e.g. richness, evenness, functional diversity—have changed over geological time. By the Late Eocene, environment–diversity relationships were much more similar to those found today. PMID:26977064

Nature connection, outdoor play, and environmental stewardship in residential environmental education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrejewski, Robert G.

A lack of exposure to the natural world has led to a generation of children disconnected from nature. This phenomenon has profound negative implications for the physical and psychological well being of today's youth. Residential environmental education provides one avenue to connect children to nature. One purpose of this study was to investigate the role of Outdoor School, a residential environmental education program, on ecological knowledge, children's connection to nature, school belonging, outdoor play attitude, environmental stewardship attitude, outdoor play behavior, and environmental stewardship behavior, as reported by participants. A quasi-experimental research design was utilized in the study. A total of 228 fifth grade students (156 treatment, 72 control) from central Pennsylvania participated. The results of the program evaluation indicated that Outdoor School was successful in achieving significant, positive gains in the areas of ecological knowledge, connection to nature, outdoor play behavior, and environmental stewardship behavior. No change was found from pretest to post-test in outdoor play attitudes, environmental stewardship attitudes, and school belonging. Additionally, the study addressed gaps in the literature regarding the relationship between connection to nature, environmental stewardship, and outdoor play using two different approaches. An adaptation of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was used to predict outdoor play behavior in children. In this model, favorable attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control lead to intentions to perform a given behavior. Intention to perform the behavior is the best predictor for behavior performance. For this study, participants' feeling of connection to nature was added as an affective independent variable. This model explained 45% of the variance in outdoor play. The hypothesis that a connection to nature would be a significant predictor of both attitudes toward outdoor play was supported by testing of the model. Finally, nature connection was tested as a full mediator of the relationship between outdoor play and environmental stewardship. There is support for the idea that direct experience in the outdoors facilitates environmental behaviors, but more research is needed to understand this relationship. Testing of the model failed to demonstrate that nature connection fully mediated the relationship between outdoor play and environmental stewardship; however, a feeling of connectedness to nature augmented the influence that outdoor play behavior exerts on environmental stewardship behavior.

Optimization Model for cooperative water allocation and valuation in large river basins regarding environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournazeri, S.

2011-12-01

A comprehensive optimization model named Cooperative Water Allocation Model (CWAM) is developed for equitable and efficient water allocation and valuation of Zab river basin in order to solve the draught problems of Orumieh Lake in North West of Iran. The model's methodology consists of three phases. The first represents an initial water rights allocation among competing users. The second comprises the water reallocation process for complete usage by consumers. The third phase performs an allocation of the net benefit of the stakeholders participating in a coalition by applying cooperative game theory. The environmental constraints are accounted for in the water allocation model by entering probable environmental damage in a target function, and inputting the minimum water requirement of users. The potential of underground water usage is evaluated in order to compensate for the variation in the amount of surface water. This is conducted by applying an integrated economic- hydrologic river basin model. A node-link river basin network is utilized in CWAM which consists of two major blocks. The first indicates the internal water rights allocation and the second is associated to water and net benefit reallocation. System control, loss in links by evaporation or seepage, modification of inflow into the node, loss in nodes and loss in outflow are considered in this model. Water valuation is calculated for environmental, industrial, municipal and agricultural usage by net benefit function. It can be seen that the water rights are allocated efficiently and incomes are distributed appropriately based on quality and quantity limitations.

Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.

PubMed

Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel

2018-04-07

In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecopedagogy as an element of citizenship education: The dialectic of global/local spheres of citizenship and critical environmental pedagogies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misiaszek, Greg William

2016-10-01

Emerging from popular education movements in Latin America, ecopedagogy is a critical environmental pedagogy which focuses on understanding the connections between social conflict and environmentally harmful acts carried out by humans. These connections are often politically hidden in education. Ecopedagogy, while being pluralistic, is in its essence defined as a critical, transformative environmental pedagogy centred on increasing social and environmental justice. Its ultimate aim is to find a sustainable balance between the conflicting goals of diverse notions of human progress and environmental wellbeing. This article is based on two comparative research projects. The first was a qualitative study on ecopedagogical models involving 31 expert ecopedagogues in Argentina, Brazil and the Appalachian region of the United States. They were asked for their perspectives on how successful ecopedagogy can be defined within the contexts in which they taught and conducted research. The second study analysed how 18 international expert scholars of citizenship and/or environmental pedagogy from six world continents regarded the ways in which citizenship intersects with environmental issues and the pedagogies of both in an increasingly globalised world, with specific focus on Global Citizenship Education. Results from the first study indicate the following two needs for effective environmental pedagogies: (1) for there to be an ecopedagogical paradigm shift in environmental teaching and research; and (2) for ecopedagogy to be an essential element of citizenship education (and vice versa). This article examines how conflicting processes of globalisation both help and hinder in achieving such a paradigm shift by decentring traditional nation-state citizenship. Results from the second study indicate how critical teaching within and between different spheres of citizenship (e.g. local, national, global, and planetary citizenship) is essential for ecopedagogy (and the ecopedagogical element).

Individual, social environmental, and physical environmental influences on physical activity among black and white adults: a structural equation analysis.

PubMed

McNeill, Lorna Haughton; Wyrwich, Kathleen W; Brownson, Ross C; Clark, Eddie M; Kreuter, Matthew W

2006-02-01

Social ecological models suggest that conditions in the social and physical environment, in addition to individual factors, play important roles in health behavior change. Using structural equation modeling, this study tested a theoretically and empirically based explanatory model of physical activity to examine theorized direct and indirect effects of individual (e.g., motivation and self-efficacy), social environmental (e.g., social support), and physical environmental factors (e.g., neighborhood quality and availability of facilities). A community-based sample of adults (N = 910) was recruited from 2 public health centers (67% female, 43% African American, 43% < $20,000/year, M age = 33 years) and completed a self-administered survey assessing their current physical activity level, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation for physical activity, perceived social support, self-efficacy, and perceptions of the physical environment. Results indicated that (a) perceptions of the physical environment had direct effects on physical activity, (b) both the social and physical environments had indirect effects on physical activity through motivation and self-efficacy, and (c) social support influenced physical activity indirectly through intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. For all forms of activity, self-efficacy was the strongest direct correlate of physical activity, and evidence of a positive dose-response relation emerged between self-efficacy and intensity of physical activity. Findings from this research highlight the interactive role of individual and environmental influences on physical activity.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Pinkernell, Stefan; Beszteri, Bánk

2014-08-01

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: huaiyongshao@163.com; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI; Sun, Xiaofei

The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-indexmore » assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar conditions in the Returning Agriculture Land to Forest Project (RALFP). However, when establishing an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment model, it is necessary to choose suitable evaluation indexes in accordance with regional eco-environmental characteristics. - Highlights: • We present a method for regional eco-environmental vulnerability assessment. • The method combines Projection Pursuit Model with Geographic Information System. • The Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project is crucial to environment recovery. • The method is more objective to assess regional eco-environmental vulnerability.« less

Evidence for heritability of adult men's sexual interest in youth under age 16 from a population-based extended twin design.

PubMed

Alanko, Katarina; Salo, Benny; Mokros, Andreas; Santtila, Pekka

2013-04-01

Sexual interest in children resembles sexual gender orientation in terms of early onset and stability across the life span. Although a genetic component to sexual interest in children seems possible, no research has addressed this question to date. Prior research showing familial transmission of pedophilia remains inconclusive about shared environmental or genetic factors. Studies from the domains of sexual orientation and sexually problematic behavior among children pointed toward genetic components. Adult men's sexual interest in youthfulness-related cues may be genetically influenced. The aim of the present study was to test whether male sexual interest in children and youth under age 16 involves a heritable component. The main outcome measure was responses in a confidential survey concerning sexual interest, fantasies, or activity pertaining to children under the age of 16 years during the previous 12 months. The present study used an extended family design within behavioral genetic modeling to estimate the contributions of genetic and environmental factors in the occurrence of adult men's sexual interest in children and youth under age 16. Participants were male twins and their male siblings from a population-based Finnish cohort sample aged 21-43 years (N = 3,967). The incidence of sexual interest in children under age was 3%. Twin correlations were higher for monozygotic than for dizygotic twins. Behavioral genetic model fitting indicated that a model including genetic effects as well as nonshared environmental influences (including measurement error), but not common environmental influences, fits the data best. The amount of variance attributable to nonadditive genetic influences (heritability) was estimated at 14.6%. The present study provides the first indication that genetic influences may play a role in shaping sexual interest toward children and adolescents among adult men. Compared with the variance attributable to nonshared environmental effects (plus measurement error), the contribution of any genetic factors seems comparatively weak. Future research should address the possible interplay of genetic with environmental risk factors, such as own sexual victimization in childhood. © 2013 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Improvement of the R-SWAT-FME framework to support multiple variables and multi-objective functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang

2014-01-01

Application of numerical models is a common practice in the environmental field for investigation and prediction of natural and anthropogenic processes. However, process knowledge, parameter identifiability, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses are still a challenge for large and complex mathematical models such as the hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, the previously developed R program language-SWAT-Flexible Modeling Environment (R-SWAT-FME) was improved to support multiple model variables and objectives at multiple time steps (i.e., daily, monthly, and annually). This expansion is significant because there is usually more than one variable (e.g., water, nutrients, and pesticides) of interest for environmental models like SWAT. To further facilitate its easy use, we also simplified its application requirements without compromising its merits, such as the user-friendly interface. To evaluate the performance of the improved framework, we used a case study focusing on both streamflow and nitrate nitrogen in the Upper Iowa River Basin (above Marengo) in the United States. Results indicated that the R-SWAT-FME performs well and is comparable to the built-in auto-calibration tool in multi-objective model calibration. Overall, the enhanced R-SWAT-FME can be useful for the SWAT community, and the methods we used can also be valuable for wrapping potential R packages with other environmental models.

Monitoring water quality in Northwest Atlantic coastal waters using dinoflagellate cysts

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient pollution is a major environmental problem in many coastal waters around the US. Determining the total input of nutrients to estuaries is a challenge. One method to evaluate nutrient input is through nutrient loading models. Another method relies upon using indicators as...

A predictive index of biotic integrity model for aquatic-vertebrate assemblages of Western U.S. streams

EPA Science Inventory

Because of natural environmental and faunal differences and scientific perspectives, numerous indices of biological integrity (IBIs) have been developed at local state, and regional scales in the USA. These multiple IBIs, plus different criteria for judging impairment, hinder ri...

VITELLOGENIN ELISA FOR FATHEAD MINNOWS (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS) USING A COMPLETELY HOMOLOGOUS ASSAY SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The indication of vitellogenin in fish has been used as a biomarker for estrogen-receptor mediated gene induction pathways resulting from exposure to environmental estrogens. Pimephales promelas (fathead minnows) have been selected as one of the test models to investigate reprodu...

Evaluating the relative environmental impact of countries.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Corey J A; Giam, Xingli; Sodhi, Navjot S

2010-05-03

Environmental protection is critical to maintain ecosystem services essential for human well-being. It is important to be able to rank countries by their environmental impact so that poor performers as well as policy 'models' can be identified. We provide novel metrics of country-specific environmental impact ranks - one proportional to total resource availability per country and an absolute (total) measure of impact - that explicitly avoid incorporating confounding human health or economic indicators. Our rankings are based on natural forest loss, habitat conversion, marine captures, fertilizer use, water pollution, carbon emissions and species threat, although many other variables were excluded due to a lack of country-specific data. Of 228 countries considered, 179 (proportional) and 171 (absolute) had sufficient data for correlations. The proportional index ranked Singapore, Korea, Qatar, Kuwait, Japan, Thailand, Bahrain, Malaysia, Philippines and Netherlands as having the highest proportional environmental impact, whereas Brazil, USA, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, India, Russia, Australia and Peru had the highest absolute impact (i.e., total resource use, emissions and species threatened). Proportional and absolute environmental impact ranks were correlated, with mainly Asian countries having both high proportional and absolute impact. Despite weak concordance among the drivers of environmental impact, countries often perform poorly for different reasons. We found no evidence to support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between impact and per capita wealth, although there was a weak reduction in environmental impact as per capita wealth increases. Using structural equation models to account for cross-correlation, we found that increasing wealth was the most important driver of environmental impact. Our results show that the global community not only has to encourage better environmental performance in less-developed countries, especially those in Asia, there is also a requirement to focus on the development of environmentally friendly practices in wealthier countries.

Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

2017-12-01

Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

[Research advances in mathematical model of coniferous trees cold hardiness].

PubMed

Zhang, Gang; Wang, Ai-Fang

2007-07-01

Plant cold hardiness has complicated attributes. This paper introduced the research advances in establishing the dynamic models of coniferous trees cold hardiness, with the advantages and disadvantages of the models presented and the further studies suggested. In the models established initially, temperature was concerned as the only environmental factor affecting the cold hardiness, and the concept of stationary level of cold hardiness was introduced. Due to the obvious prediction errors of these models, the stationary level of cold hardiness was modeled later by assuming the existence of an additive effect of temperature and photoperiod on the increase of cold hardiness. Furthermore, the responses of the annual development phases for cold hardiness to environment were considered. The model researchers have paid more attention to the additive effect models, and run some experiments to test the additivity principle. However, the research results on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) indicated that its organs did not support the presumption of an additive response of cold hardiness by temperature and photoperiod, and the interaction between environmental factors should be taken into account. The mathematical models of cold hardiness need to be developed and improved.

Improving the Accuracy of Urban Environmental Quality Assessment Using Geographically-Weighted Regression Techniques.

PubMed

Faisal, Kamil; Shaker, Ahmed

2017-03-07

Urban Environmental Quality (UEQ) can be treated as a generic indicator that objectively represents the physical and socio-economic condition of the urban and built environment. The value of UEQ illustrates a sense of satisfaction to its population through assessing different environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. This paper elucidates the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Geographically-Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques to integrate various parameters and estimate the UEQ of two major cities in Ontario, Canada. Remote sensing, GIS and census data were first obtained to derive various environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. The aforementioned techniques were used to integrate all of these environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. Three key indicators, including family income, higher level of education and land value, were used as a reference to validate the outcomes derived from the integration techniques. The results were evaluated by assessing the relationship between the extracted UEQ results and the reference layers. Initial findings showed that the GWR with the spatial lag model represents an improved precision and accuracy by up to 20% with respect to those derived by using GIS overlay and PCA techniques for the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa. The findings of the research can help the authorities and decision makers to understand the empirical relationships among environmental factors, urban morphology and real estate and decide for more environmental justice.

Improving the Accuracy of Urban Environmental Quality Assessment Using Geographically-Weighted Regression Techniques

PubMed Central

Faisal, Kamil; Shaker, Ahmed

2017-01-01

Urban Environmental Quality (UEQ) can be treated as a generic indicator that objectively represents the physical and socio-economic condition of the urban and built environment. The value of UEQ illustrates a sense of satisfaction to its population through assessing different environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. This paper elucidates the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Geographically-Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques to integrate various parameters and estimate the UEQ of two major cities in Ontario, Canada. Remote sensing, GIS and census data were first obtained to derive various environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. The aforementioned techniques were used to integrate all of these environmental, urban and socio-economic parameters. Three key indicators, including family income, higher level of education and land value, were used as a reference to validate the outcomes derived from the integration techniques. The results were evaluated by assessing the relationship between the extracted UEQ results and the reference layers. Initial findings showed that the GWR with the spatial lag model represents an improved precision and accuracy by up to 20% with respect to those derived by using GIS overlay and PCA techniques for the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa. The findings of the research can help the authorities and decision makers to understand the empirical relationships among environmental factors, urban morphology and real estate and decide for more environmental justice. PMID:28272334

Delivery of Forecasted Atmospheric Ozone and Dust for the New Mexico Environmental Public Health Tracking System - An Open Source Geospatial Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Sanchez-Silva, R.; Cavner, J. A.

2010-12-01

New Mexico's Environmental Public Health Tracking System (EPHTS), funded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), aims to improve health awareness and services by linking health effects data with levels and frequency of environmental exposure. As a public health decision-support system, EPHTS systems include: state-of-the-art statistical analysis tools; geospatial visualization tools; data discovery, extraction, and delivery tools; and environmental/public health linkage information. As part of its mandate, EPHTS issues public health advisories and forecasts of environmental conditions that have consequences for human health. Through a NASA-funded partnership between the University of New Mexico and the University of Arizona, NASA Earth Science results are fused into two existing models (the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model) in order to improve forecasts of atmospheric dust, ozone, and aerosols. The results and products derived from the outputs of these models are made available to an Open Source mapping component of the New Mexico EPHTS. In particular, these products are integrated into a Django content management system using GeoDjango, GeoAlchemy, and other OGC-compliant geospatial libraries written in the Python and C++ programming languages. Capabilities of the resultant mapping system include indicator-based thematic mapping, data delivery, and analytical capabilities. DREAM and CMAQ outputs can be inspected, via REST calls, through temporal and spatial subsetting of the atmospheric concentration data across analytical units employed by the public health community. This paper describes details of the architecture and integration of NASA Earth Science into the EPHTS decision-support system.

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-01-01

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers. PMID:25551518

Identifying environmental risk factors of cholera in a coastal area with geospatial technologies.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-12-29

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers.

Values, attitudes and perceptions of managers as predictors of corporate environmental responsiveness.

PubMed

Papagiannakis, Giorgos; Lioukas, Spyros

2012-06-15

We examine whether managers' values, attitudes, and perceptions influence the greening of organizations. To that purpose, we specify and test a model of corporate environmental responsiveness (CER), drawing upon a modified version of the theory of planned behavior and the value-belief-norm theory. Based on survey data from 142 Greek companies, we find that top managers' personal values influence responses indirectly, through shaping their environmental attitudes, while direct relationship is not significant. Subjective norms, expressing stakeholder expectations, do affect CER, with their effect being stronger than that of attitudes. Managers' perceived ability to handle environmental issues also appears to influence responses. Results have theoretical implications, indicating the significant role of managers' values, attitudes and perceptions in a firm's environmental response. Practical implications are discussed in relation to selection of managers and training. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive environmental management of tourism in the Province of Siena, Italy using the ecological footprint.

PubMed

Patterson, Trista M; Niccolucci, Valentina; Marchettini, Nadia

2008-01-01

Adaptive management as applied to tourism policy treats management policies as experiments that probe the responses of the system as human behavior changes. We present a conceptual systems model that incorporates the gap between observed and desired levels of the ecological footprint with respect to biocapacity. Addressing this gap (or 'overshoot') can inform strategies to increase or decrease visitation or its associated consumption in the coming years. The feedback mechanism in this conceptual model incorporates a gap between observed and desired ecological footprint levels of tourists and residents. The work is based on longer-term and ongoing study of tourism impacts and ecological footprint assessments from the SPIN-Eco Project. We present historical tourism and environmental data from the province of Siena, Italy and discuss the use of discrete, static environmental indicators as part of an iterative feedback process to manage tourism within biophysical limits. We discuss a necessary shift of emphasis from certain and static numbers to a process-based management model that can reflect slow changes to biophysical resources. As underscored by ecological footprint analysis, the energy and material use associated with tourism and local activity can erode natural capital foundations if that use exceeds the area's biological capacity to support it. The dynamic, and iterative process of using such indicators as management feedback allows us to view sustainability more accurately as a transition and journey, rather than a static destination to which management must arrive.

Chronological record of environmental chemicals from analysis of stratified vertebrate excretion deposited in a sheltered environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petit, M.G.; Altenbach, J.S.

1973-01-01

Guano deposits of the migratory free-tailed bat Tadarida brasiliensis are stratified into distinguishable annual layers in some caves in the American Southwest. These layers may be dated and analyzed for environmental chemicals thus providing a chronological record of selected chemicals in the food chain of this mammal. It is found that the annual Hg fluctuations observed in the guano correlate with annual production figures of a nearby copper smelter. Analysis of the terms in a mathematical model suggests that the major mechanism by which smelter mercury enters the bat's food chain is dry fallout. A 1-yr delay time between peaksmore » and dips in industrial output and peaks and dips in the mercury present in guano indicate that industrial mercury is ingested by the bat indirectly via the food chain. The preliminary data presented here indicate that analysis of old deposits (preindustrial revolution) will provide baseline data for environmental chemicals.« less

Early Environmental Field Research Career Exploration: An Analysis of Impacts on Precollege Apprentices

PubMed Central

Flowers, Susan K.; Beyer, Katherine M.; Pérez, Maria; Jeffe, Donna B.

2016-01-01

Research apprenticeships offer opportunities for deep understanding of scientific practice, transparency about research careers, and possible transformational effects on precollege youth. We examined two consecutive field-based environmental biology apprenticeship programs designed to deliver realistic career exploration and connections to research scientists. The Shaw Institute for Field Training (SIFT) program combines introductory field-skills training with research assistance opportunities, and the subsequent Tyson Environmental Research Fellowships (TERF) program provides immersive internships on university field station–based research teams. In a longitudinal mixed-methods study grounded in social cognitive career theory, changes in youth perspectives were measured during program progression from 10th grade through college, evaluating the efficacy of encouraging career path entry. Results indicate SIFT provided self-knowledge and career perspectives more aligned with reality. During SIFT, differences were found between SIFT-only participants compared with those who progressed to TERF. Transition from educational activities to fieldwork with scientists was a pivotal moment at which data showed decreased or increased interest and confidence. Continuation to TERF provided deeper relationships with role models who gave essential early-career support. Our study indicates the two-stage apprenticeship structure influenced persistence in pursuit of an environmental research career pathway. Recommendations for other precollege environmental career–exploration programs are presented. PMID:27909017

Random regression models using Legendre polynomials or linear splines for test-day milk yield of dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) cattle.

PubMed

Pereira, R J; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Verneque, R S; Vercesi Filho, A E; Albuquerque, L G

2013-01-01

Studies investigating the use of random regression models for genetic evaluation of milk production in Zebu cattle are scarce. In this study, 59,744 test-day milk yield records from 7,810 first lactations of purebred dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) and crossbred (dairy Gyr × Holstein) cows were used to compare random regression models in which additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using orthogonal Legendre polynomials or linear spline functions. Residual variances were modeled considering 1, 5, or 10 classes of days in milk. Five classes fitted the changes in residual variances over the lactation adequately and were used for model comparison. The model that fitted linear spline functions with 6 knots provided the lowest sum of residual variances across lactation. On the other hand, according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) and bayesian information criterion (BIC), a model using third-order and fourth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, provided the best fit. However, the high rank correlation (0.998) between this model and that applying third-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, indicates that, in practice, the same bulls would be selected by both models. The last model, which is less parameterized, is a parsimonious option for fitting dairy Gyr breed test-day milk yield records. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relations of alpine plant communities across environmental gradients: Multilevel versus multiscale analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, George P.; Zimmerman, Dale L.; Kinney, Mitch; Fagre, Daniel B.

2017-01-01

Alpine plant communities vary, and their environmental covariates could influence their response to climate change. A single multilevel model of how alpine plant community composition is determined by hierarchical relations is compared to a separate examination of those relations at different scales. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of species cover for plots in four regions across the Rocky Mountains created dependent variables. Climate variables are derived for the four regions from interpolated data. Plot environmental variables are measured directly and the presence of thirty-seven site characteristics is recorded and used to create additional independent variables. Multilevel and best subsets regressions are used to determine the strength of the hypothesized relations. The ordinations indicate structure in the assembly of plant communities. The multilevel analyses, although revealing significant relations, provide little explanation; of the site variables, those related to site microclimate are most important. In multiscale analyses (whole and separate regions), different variables are better explanations within the different regions. This result indicates weak environmental niche control of community composition. The weak relations of the structure in the patterns of species association to the environment indicates that either alpine vegetation represents a case of the neutral theory of biogeography being a valid explanation or that it represents disequilibrium conditions. The implications of neutral theory and disequilibrium explanations are similar: Response to climate change will be difficult to quantify above equilibrium background turnover.

Comparative lifecycle assessment of alternatives for waste management in Rio de Janeiro - Investigating the influence of an attributional or consequential approach.

PubMed

Bernstad Saraiva, A; Souza, R G; Valle, R A B

2017-10-01

The environmental impacts from three management alternatives for organic fraction of municipal solid waste were compared using lifecycle assessment methodology. The alternatives (sanitary landfill, selective collection of organic waste for anaerobic digestion and anaerobic digestion after post-separation of organic waste) were modelled applying an attributional as well as consequential approach, in parallel with the aim of identifying if and how these approaches can affect results and conclusions. The marginal processes identified in the consequential modelling were in general associated with higher environmental impacts than average processes modelled with an attributional approach. As all investigated waste management alternatives result in net-substitution of energy and in some cases also materials, the consequential modelling resulted in lower absolute environmental impacts in five of the seven environmental impact categories assessed in the study. In three of these, the chosen modelling approach can alter the hierarchy between compared waste management alternatives. This indicates a risk of underestimating potential benefits from efficient energy recovery from waste when applying attributional modelling in contexts in which electricity provision historically has been dominated by technologies presenting rather low environmental impacts, but where projections point at increasing impacts from electricity provision in coming years. Thus, in the present case study, the chosen approach affects both absolute and relative results from the comparison. However, results were largely related to the processes identified as affected by investigated changes, and not merely the chosen modelling approach. The processes actually affected by future choices between different waste management alternatives are intrinsically uncertain. The study demonstrates the benefits of applying different assumptions regarding the processes affected by investigated choices - both for provision of energy and materials substituted by waste management processes in consequential LCA modelling, in order to present outcomes that are relevant as decision support within the waste management sector. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

2013-12-01

Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few model regions (including Africa and North America). These WSIs were used to estimate revised CFs for freshwater consumption to be used in LCAs. Future work will extend results to a global scale. References 1. Brown, A., Matlock, M., 2011. A Review of Water Scarcity Indices and Methodologies, University of Kansas, The Sustainability Consortium, White Paper #106. 2. Pfister, S., Koehler, A., Hellweg, S., 2009. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Freshwater Consumption in LCA. Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 (11), 4098-4104. 3. Alcamo, J.; Doll, P.; Henrichs, T.; Kaspar, F.; Lehner, B.; Rosch, T.; Siebert, S. Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability Hydrol. Sci. J. 2003, 48 (3) 317- 337. 4. Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., Allen, P.M., 1999. Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance. J. Am.Water Resour. Assoc. 35 (5), 1037-1051. 5. Pfister, S., Bayer, P., Koehler, A., Hellweg, S., 2011. Environmental Impacts of Water Use in Global Crop Production: Hotspots and Trade-Offs with Land Use. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45 (13), 5761- 5768.

The impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution: evidence from Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2017-03-01

In this study, the impact of energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators on environmental pollution from 1971 to 2011 is investigated using the statistically inspired modification of partial least squares (SIMPLS) regression model. There was evidence of a linear relationship between energy, agriculture, macroeconomic and human-induced indicators and carbon dioxide emissions. Evidence from the SIMPLS regression shows that a 1% increase in crop production index will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.71%. Economic growth increased by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.46%, which means that an increase in Ghana's economic growth may lead to a reduction in environmental pollution. The increase in electricity production from hydroelectric sources by 1% will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.30%; thus, increasing renewable energy sources in Ghana's energy portfolio will help mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. Increasing enteric emissions by 1% will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 4.22%, and a 1% increase in the nitrogen content of manure management will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 6.69%. The SIMPLS regression forecasting exhibited a 5% MAPE from the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions.

Non-stationary recruitment dynamics of rainbow smelt: the influence of environmental variables and variation in size structure and length-at-maturation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feiner, Zachary S.; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2015-01-01

Fish stock-recruitment dynamics may be difficult to elucidate because of nonstationary relationships resulting from shifting environmental conditions and fluctuations in important vital rates such as individual growth or maturation. The Great Lakes have experienced environmental stressors that may have changed population demographics and stock-recruitment relationships while causing the declines of several prey fish species, including rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We investigated changes in the size and maturation of rainbow smelt in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and recruitment dynamics of the Lake Michigan stock over the past four decades. Mean lengths and length-at-maturation of rainbow smelt generally declined over time in both lakes. To evaluate recruitment, we used both a Ricker model and a Kalman filter-random walk (KF-RW) model which incorporated nonstationarity in stock productivity by allowing the productivity term to vary over time. The KF-RW model explained nearly four times more variation in recruitment than the Ricker model, indicating the productivity of the Lake Michigan stock has increased. By accounting for this nonstationarity, we were able identify significant variations in stock productivity, evaluate its importance to rainbow smelt recruitment, and speculate on potential environmental causes for the shift. Our results suggest that investigating mechanisms driving nonstationary shifts in stock-recruit relationships can provide valuable insights into temporal variation in fish population dynamics.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Legume Diversity Patterns in West Central Africa: Influence of Species Biology on Distribution Models

PubMed Central

de la Estrella, Manuel; Mateo, Rubén G.; Wieringa, Jan J.; Mackinder, Barbara; Muñoz, Jesús

2012-01-01

Objectives Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are used to produce predictions of potential Leguminosae diversity in West Central Africa. Those predictions are evaluated subsequently using expert opinion. The established methodology of combining all SDMs is refined to assess species diversity within five defined vegetation types. Potential species diversity is thus predicted for each vegetation type respectively. The primary aim of the new methodology is to define, in more detail, areas of species richness for conservation planning. Methodology Using Maxent, SDMs based on a suite of 14 environmental predictors were generated for 185 West Central African Leguminosae species, each categorised according to one of five vegetation types: Afromontane, coastal, non-flooded forest, open formations, or riverine forest. The relative contribution of each environmental variable was compared between different vegetation types using a nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis analysis followed by a post-hoc Kruskal-Wallis Paired Comparison contrast. Legume species diversity patterns were explored initially using the typical method of stacking all SDMs. Subsequently, five different ensemble models were generated by partitioning SDMs according to vegetation category. Ecological modelers worked with legume specialists to improve data integrity and integrate expert opinion in the interpretation of individual species models and potential species richness predictions for different vegetation types. Results/Conclusions Of the 14 environmental predictors used, five showed no difference in their relative contribution to the different vegetation models. Of the nine discriminating variables, the majority were related to temperature variation. The set of variables that played a major role in the Afromontane species diversity model differed significantly from the sets of variables of greatest relative important in other vegetation categories. The traditional approach of stacking all SDMs indicated overall centers of diversity in the region but the maps indicating potential species richness by vegetation type offered more detailed information on which conservation efforts can be focused. PMID:22911808

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF AGGREGATED ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES WITH A CASE-STUDY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental indicators are often aggregated into a single index for various purposes in environmental studies. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ, usually because the aggregated indices' sensitivities are not thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, if a sens...

Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data.

PubMed

Yee, Susan Harrell; Barron, Mace G

2010-02-01

Coral reefs have experienced extensive mortality over the past few decades as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. There is an increasing realization that other environmental factors, including water mixing, solar radiation, water depth, and water clarity, interact with temperature to either exacerbate bleaching or protect coral from mass bleaching. The relative contribution of these factors to variability in mass bleaching at a global scale has not been quantified, but can provide insights when making large-scale predictions of mass bleaching events. Using data from 708 bleaching surveys across the globe, a framework was developed to predict the probability of moderate or severe bleaching as a function of key environmental variables derived from global-scale remote-sensing data. The ability of models to explain spatial and temporal variability in mass bleaching events was quantified. Results indicated approximately 20% improved accuracy of predictions of bleaching when solar radiation and water mixing, in addition to elevated temperature, were incorporated into models, but predictive accuracy was variable among regions. Results provide insights into the effects of environmental parameters on bleaching at a global scale.

Environmental factor analysis of cholera in China using remote sensing and geographical information systems.

PubMed

Xu, M; Cao, C X; Wang, D C; Kan, B; Xu, Y F; Ni, X L; Zhu, Z C

2016-04-01

Cholera is one of a number of infectious diseases that appears to be influenced by climate, geography and other natural environments. This study analysed the environmental factors of the spatial distribution of cholera in China. It shows that temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline have significant impact on the distribution of cholera. It also reveals the oceanic environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, which is a coastal province of China, using both remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS). The analysis has validated the correlation between indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local number of cholera cases based on 8-year monthly data from 2001 to 2008. The results show the number of cholera cases has been strongly affected by the variables of SST, SSH and OCC. Utilizing this information, a cholera prediction model has been established based on the oceanic and climatic environmental factors. The model indicates that RS and GIS have great potential for designing an early warning system for cholera.

Assessing the Association Between Asthma and Air Quality in the Presence of Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, L. J.; Lopiano, K. K.; Xu, X.; Holt, N. M.; Leary, E.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Crosson, W. L.; Estes, M. G.; Luvall, J. C.; Estes, S. M.;

Examining the genetic and environmental associations among spelling, reading fluency, reading comprehension and a high stakes reading test in a combined sample of third and fourth grade students

PubMed Central

Little, Callie W.

2015-01-01

The present study is an examination of the genetic and environmental effects on the associations among reading fluency, spelling and earlier reading comprehension on a later reading comprehension outcome (FCAT) in a combined sample of 3rd and 4th grade students using data from the 2011-2012 school year of the Florida Twin project on Reading (Taylor et al., 2013). A genetically sensitive model was applied to the data with results indicating a common genetic component among all four measures, along with shared and non-shared environmental influences common between reading fluency, spelling and FCAT. PMID:26770052

UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY'S ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS INITIATIVE AND BIOMARKERS DATABASE

EPA Science Inventory

Within the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), there are several on-going programs and projects that collect health and environmental information. The USEPA's Environmental Indicators Initiative is one such program which includes the development of environmenta...

Mapping the environmental limitations to growth of coastal Douglas-fir stands on Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

PubMed

Coops, Nicholas C; Coggins, Sam B; Kurz, Werner A

2007-06-01

Coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii spp. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) occurs over a wide range of environmental conditions on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Although ecological zones have been drawn, no formal spatial analysis of environmental limitations on tree growth has been carried out. Such an exercise is desirable to identify areas that may warrant intensive management and to evaluate the impacts of predicted climate change this century. We applied a physiologically based forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), to interpret and map current limitations to Douglas-fir growth across Vancouver Island at 100-m cell resolution. We first calibrated the model to reproduce the regional productivity estimates reported in yield table growth curves. Further analyses indicated that slope exposure is important; southwest slopes of 30 degrees receive 40% more incident radiation than similarly inclined northeast slopes. When combined with other environmental differences associated with aspect, the model predicted 60% more growth on southwest exposures than on northeast exposures. The model simulations support field observations that drought is rare in the wetter zones, but common on the eastern side of Vancouver Island at lower elevations and on more exposed slopes. We illustrate the current limitations on growth caused by suboptimal temperature, high vapor pressure deficits and other factors. The modeling approach complements ecological classifications and offers the potential to identify the most favorable sites for management of other native tree species under current and future climatic conditions.

The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco

Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order tomore » define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.« less

Evaluating Environmental Knowledge Dimension Convergence to Assess Educational Programme Effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liefländer, Anne K.; Bogner, Franz X.; Kibbe, Alexandra; Kaiser, Florian G.

2015-03-01

One aim of environmental education is fostering sustainable environmental action. Some environmental behaviour models suggest that this can be accomplished in part by improving people's knowledge. Recent studies have identified a distinct, psychometrically supported environmental knowledge structure consisting of system, action-related and effectiveness knowledge. Besides system knowledge, which is most often the focus of such studies, incorporating the other knowledge dimensions into these dimensions was suggested to enhance effectiveness. Our study is among the first to implement these dimensions together in an educational campaign and to use these dimensions to evaluate the effectiveness of a programme on water issues. We designed a four-day environmental education programme on water issues for students at an educational field centre. We applied a newly developed multiple-choice instrument using a pre-, post-, retention test design. The knowledge scales were calibrated with the Rasch model. In addition to the commonly assessed individual change in knowledge level, we also measured the change in knowledge convergence, the extent to which the knowledge dimensions merge as a person's environmental knowledge increases, as an innovative indicator of educational success. Following programme participation, students significantly improved in terms of amount learned in each knowledge dimension and in terms of integration of the knowledge dimensions. The effectiveness knowledge shows the least gain, persistence and convergence, which we explain by considering the dependence of the knowledge dimensions on each other. Finally, we discuss emerging challenges for educational researchers and practical implications for environmental educators.

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort.

PubMed

Boregowda, S C; Tiwari, S N; Chaturvedi, S K

2001-12-01

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boregowda, S. C.; Tiwari, S. N.; Chaturvedi, S. K.

2001-01-01

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Testing the psychometric properties of the Environmental Attitudes Inventory on undergraduate students in the Arab context: A test-retest approach.

PubMed

AlMenhali, Entesar Ali; Khalid, Khalizani; Iyanna, Shilpa

2018-01-01

The Environmental Attitudes Inventory (EAI) was developed to evaluate the multidimensional nature of environmental attitudes; however, it is based on a dataset from outside the Arab context. This study reinvestigated the construct validity of the EAI with a new dataset and confirmed the feasibility of applying it in the Arab context. One hundred and forty-eight subjects in Study 1 and 130 in Study 2 provided valid responses. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to extract a new factor structure in Study 1, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed in Study 2. Both studies generated a seven-factor model, and the model fit was discussed for both the studies. Study 2 exhibited satisfactory model fit indices compared to Study 1. Factor loading values of a few items in Study 1 affected the reliability values and average variance extracted values, which demonstrated low discriminant validity. Based on the results of the EFA and CFA, this study showed sufficient model fit and suggested the feasibility of applying the EAI in the Arab context with a good construct validity and internal consistency.

Testing the psychometric properties of the Environmental Attitudes Inventory on undergraduate students in the Arab context: A test-retest approach

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Environmental Attitudes Inventory (EAI) was developed to evaluate the multidimensional nature of environmental attitudes; however, it is based on a dataset from outside the Arab context. This study reinvestigated the construct validity of the EAI with a new dataset and confirmed the feasibility of applying it in the Arab context. One hundred and forty-eight subjects in Study 1 and 130 in Study 2 provided valid responses. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to extract a new factor structure in Study 1, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed in Study 2. Both studies generated a seven-factor model, and the model fit was discussed for both the studies. Study 2 exhibited satisfactory model fit indices compared to Study 1. Factor loading values of a few items in Study 1 affected the reliability values and average variance extracted values, which demonstrated low discriminant validity. Based on the results of the EFA and CFA, this study showed sufficient model fit and suggested the feasibility of applying the EAI in the Arab context with a good construct validity and internal consistency. PMID:29758021

The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach.

PubMed

Antillón, Marina; Warren, Joshua L; Crawford, Forrest W; Weinberger, Daniel M; Kürüm, Esra; Pak, Gi Deok; Marks, Florian; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-02-01

Upcoming vaccination efforts against typhoid fever require an assessment of the baseline burden of disease in countries at risk. There are no typhoid incidence data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), so model-based estimates offer insights for decision-makers in the absence of readily available data. We developed a mixed-effects model fit to data from 32 population-based studies of typhoid incidence in 22 locations in 14 countries. We tested the contribution of economic and environmental indices for predicting typhoid incidence using a stochastic search variable selection algorithm. We performed out-of-sample validation to assess the predictive performance of the model. We estimated that 17.8 million cases of typhoid fever occur each year in LMICs (95% credible interval: 6.9-48.4 million). Central Africa was predicted to experience the highest incidence of typhoid, followed by select countries in Central, South, and Southeast Asia. Incidence typically peaked in the 2-4 year old age group. Models incorporating widely available economic and environmental indicators were found to describe incidence better than null models. Recent estimates of typhoid burden may under-estimate the number of cases and magnitude of uncertainty in typhoid incidence. Our analysis permits prediction of overall as well as age-specific incidence of typhoid fever in LMICs, and incorporates uncertainty around the model structure and estimates of the predictors. Future studies are needed to further validate and refine model predictions and better understand year-to-year variation in cases.

Non-lethal assessment of freshwater mussel physiological response to changes in environmental factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Andrea K.; Peterson, James T.; Wisniewski, Jason M.; Bringolf, Robert B.

2015-01-01

The development of effective nonlethal biomonitoring techniques is imperative for the preservation of imperiled freshwater mussel populations. Changes in hemolymph chemistry profiles and tissue glycogen are potential biomarkers for nonlethally monitoring stress in mussels. We sampled three species in the Flint River Basin over 2 years to evaluate how these hemolymph and tissue biomarkers responded to environmental changes. We used hierarchical linear models to evaluate the relationships between variation in the biomarkers and environmental factors and found that the responses of the hemolymph and tissue parameters were strongly related to stream discharge. Shifts in alanine aminotransferase and glycogen showed the largest relations with discharge at the time of sampling, while magnesium levels were most explained by the discharge for 5 days prior to sampling. Aspartate aminotransferase, bicarbonate, and calcium showed the strongest relations with mean discharge for 15 days prior to sampling. The modeling results indicated that biomarker responses varied substantially among individuals of different size, sex, and species and illustrated the value of hierarchical modeling techniques to account for the inherent complexity of aquatic ecosystems.

Factors influencing riverine fish assemblages in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Levin, Sara B.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game, conducted an investigation of fish assemblages in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this study was to determine relations between fish-assemblage characteristics and anthropogenic factors, including impervious cover and estimated flow alteration, relative to the effects of environmental factors, including physical-basin characteristics and land use. The results of this investigation supersede those of a preliminary analysis published in 2010. Fish data were obtained for 669 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select fish metrics - species richness, abundance of individual species, and abundances of species grouped on life history traits - responsive to flow alteration. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a geographic information system to determine a set of environmental and anthropogenic factors that were tested for use as explanatory variables in regression models. Reported and estimated withdrawals and return flows were used together with simulated unaltered streamflows to estimate altered streamflows and indicators of flow alteration for each fish-sampling site. Altered streamflows and indicators of flow alteration were calculated on the basis of methods developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in which unaltered daily streamflows were simulated for a 44-year period (water years 1961-2004), and streamflow alterations were estimated by use of water-withdrawal and wastewater-return data previously reported to the State for the 2000-04 period and estimated domestic-well withdrawals and septic-system discharges. A variable selection process, conducted using principal components analysis and Spearman rank correlation, was used to select a set of 15 non-redundant environmental and anthropogenic factors to test for use as explanatory variables in the regression analyses. Twenty-one fish species were used in a multivariate analysis of fish-assemblage patterns. Results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to group fish species into fluvial and macrohabitat generalist habitat-use classes. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to characterize the association between fish-response variables and environmental and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Quantile regression demonstrated that as percent impervious cover and an indicator of percent alteration of August median flow from groundwater withdrawals increase, the relative abundance and species richness of fluvial fish decrease. The quantile regression plots indicate that (1) as many as seven fluvial fish species are expected in streams with little flow alteration or impervious cover, (2) no more than four fluvial fish species are expected in streams where flow alterations from groundwater withdrawals exceed 50 percent of the August median flow or the percent area of impervious cover exceeds 15 percent, and (3) few fluvial fish remain at high rates of withdrawal (approaching 100 percent) or high rates of impervious cover (between 25 and 30 percent). Three generalized linear models (GLMs) were developed to quantify the response of fluvial fish to multiple environmental and anthropogenic variables. All variables in the GLM equations were demonstrated to be significant (p less than 0.05, with most less than 0.01). Variables in the fluvial-fish relative-abundance model were channel slope, estimated percent alteration of August median flow from groundwater withdrawals, percent wetland in a 240-meter buffer strip, and percent impervious cover. Variables in the fluvial-fish species-richness model were drainage area, channel slope, total undammed reach length, percent wetland in a 240-meter buffer strip, and percent impervious cover. Variables in the brook trout relativeabundance model were drainage area, percent open water, and percent impervious cover. The variability explained by the GLM models, as measured by the pseudo R2, ranged from 18.2 to 34.6, and correlations between observed and predicted values ranged from 0.50 to 0.60. Results of GLM models indicated that, keeping all other variables the same, a one-unit (1 percent) increase in the percent depletion of August median flow would result in a 0.9-percent decrease in the relative abundance (in counts per hour) of fluvial fish. The results of GLM models also indicated that a unit increase in impervious cover (1 percent) resulted in a 3.7-percent decrease in the relative abundance of fluvial fish, a 5.4-percent decrease in fluvial-fish species richness, and an 8.7-percent decrease in brook trout relative abundance.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

An interval chance-constrained fuzzy modeling approach for supporting land-use planning and eco-environment planning at a watershed level.

PubMed

Ou, Guoliang; Tan, Shukui; Zhou, Min; Lu, Shasha; Tao, Yinghui; Zhang, Zuo; Zhang, Lu; Yan, Danping; Guan, Xingliang; Wu, Gang

2017-12-15

An interval chance-constrained fuzzy land-use allocation (ICCF-LUA) model is proposed in this study to support solving land resource management problem associated with various environmental and ecological constraints at a watershed level. The ICCF-LUA model is based on the ICCF (interval chance-constrained fuzzy) model which is coupled with interval mathematical model, chance-constrained programming model and fuzzy linear programming model and can be used to deal with uncertainties expressed as intervals, probabilities and fuzzy sets. Therefore, the ICCF-LUA model can reflect the tradeoff between decision makers and land stakeholders, the tradeoff between the economical benefits and eco-environmental demands. The ICCF-LUA model has been applied to the land-use allocation of Wujiang watershed, Guizhou Province, China. The results indicate that under highly land suitable conditions, optimized area of cultivated land, forest land, grass land, construction land, water land, unused land and landfill in Wujiang watershed will be [5015, 5648] hm 2 , [7841, 7965] hm 2 , [1980, 2056] hm 2 , [914, 1423] hm 2 , [70, 90] hm 2 , [50, 70] hm 2 and [3.2, 4.3] hm 2 , the corresponding system economic benefit will be between 6831 and 7219 billion yuan. Consequently, the ICCF-LUA model can effectively support optimized land-use allocation problem in various complicated conditions which include uncertainties, risks, economic objective and eco-environmental constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

2015-09-01

The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

Environmental Education and Pupils' Conceptions of Matter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hellden, Gustav

1995-01-01

Reports on a seven-year longitudinal study of pupils' (n=25) understanding of ecological processes with emphasis on how their conceptions of matter influence their understanding. Results indicate that initially students expected the plants cultivated in closed transparent boxes to die but later used a "cycle model" to explain how the…

FHWA and USGS cooperate to provide environmental engineering/science curricula developed for the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) to universities and colleges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Managers and engineers at the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) indicate that they need researchers, employees, consultants, and regulators who understand the unique challenges involved in managing a...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF LAND USE CHANGE: ACCOUNTING FOR COMPLEXITY WITH AGENT-BASED MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of people on ecosystems and the impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being are being viewed increasingly as an integrated system. Demographic and economic pressures change a variety of ecological indicators, which can then result in reduced quality of ecosystem...

Emergy Synthesis 8 ~ Emergy and environmental accounting: Theories, applications, and methodologies

EPA Science Inventory

With the assembly and review of the 12 research papers for this Special Issue of Ecological Modelling, our goal was to continue working with the journal to bring a strong group of papers, indicative of the forefront of emergy research, to the global energy research community and ...

Silver Nanopartilces After Zebrafish Development and Larval Behavior: Distinct Roles for Particle Size, Coating and Composition

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) act as antibacterials by releasing monovalent silver (Ag+) and are increasingly used in consumer products, thus elevating exposures in human and environmental populations. In vitro models indicate that AgNPs are likely to be developmental ...

Indicating disturbance content and context for preserved areas

Treesearch

N. Zaccarelli; K.H. Riitters; I. Petrosillo; G. Zurlini

2007-01-01

An accepted goal of conservation is to build a conservation network that is resilient to environmental change. The conceptual patch-corridor-matrix model views individual conservation areas as connected components of a regional network capable of sustaining metapopulations and biodiversity, and assessment of contextual conditions in the matrix surrounding conservation...

Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

1983-01-01

The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

Hurricane Katrina-linked environmental injustice: race, class, and place differentials in attitudes.

PubMed

Adeola, Francis O; Picou, J Steven

2017-04-01

Claims of environmental injustice, human neglect, and racism dominated the popular and academic literature after Hurricane Katrina struck the United States in August 2005. A systematic analysis of environmental injustice from the perspective of the survivors remains scanty or nonexistent. This paper presents, therefore, a systematic empirical analysis of the key determinants of Katrina-induced environmental injustice attitudes among survivors in severely affected parishes (counties) in Louisiana and Mississippi three years into the recovery process. Statistical models based on a random sample of survivors were estimated, with the results revealing significant predictors such as age, children in household under 18, education, homeownership, and race. The results further indicate that African-Americans were more likely to perceive environmental injustice following Katrina than their white counterparts. Indeed, the investigation reveals that there are substantial racial gaps in measures of environmental injustice. The theoretical, methodological, and applied policy implications of these findings are discussed. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling.

PubMed

Huijbregts, Mark A J; Gilijamse, Wim; Ragas, Ad M J; Reijnders, Lucas

2003-06-01

The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However, LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations, respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively, the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication, and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.

Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

PubMed

Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

2017-09-21

The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model approaches for estimating the influence of time-varying socio-environmental factors on macroparasite transmission in two endemic regions

PubMed Central

ZHONG, BO; CARLTON, ELIZABETH J.; SPEAR, ROBERT C.

2009-01-01

The environmental determinants of vector- and host-borne diseases include time-varying components that modify key transmission parameters, resulting in transient couplings between environmental phenomena and transmission processes. While some time-varying drivers are periodic in nature, some are aperiodic, such as those that involve episodic events or complex patterns of human behavior. Understanding these couplings can allow for prediction of periods of peak infection risk, and ultimately presents opportunities for optimizing intervention selection and timing. Schistosome macroparasites of humans exhibit multiple free-living stages as well as intermediate hosts, and are thus model organisms for illustrating the influence of environmental forcing on transmission. Time-varying environmental factors, termed gating functions, for schistosomes include larval response to temperature and rainfall, seasonal water contact patterns and snail population dynamics driven by weather variables. The biological bases for these modifiers are reviewed, and their values are estimated and incorporated into a transmission model that simulates a multi-year period in two schistosomiasis endemic regions. Modeling results combined with a scale dependent correlation analysis indicate the end effect of these site-specific gating functions is to strongly govern worm burden in these communities, in a manner particularly sensitive to the hydrological differences between sites. Two classes of gating functions were identified, those that act in concert to modify human infection (and determine worm acquisition late in the season), and those that act on snail infection (and determine early season worm acquisition). The importance of these factors for control programs and surveillance is discussed. PMID:20454601

Effects of social contact and zygosity on 21-y weight change in male twins.

PubMed

McCaffery, Jeanne M; Franz, Carol E; Jacobson, Kristen; Leahey, Tricia M; Xian, Hong; Wing, Rena R; Lyons, Michael J; Kremen, William S

2011-08-01

Recent evidence indicates that social contact is related to similarities in weight gain over time. However, no studies have examined this effect in a twin design, in which genetic and other environmental effects can also be estimated. We determined whether the frequency of social contact is associated with similarity in weight change from young adulthood (mean age: 20 y) to middle age (mean age: 41 y) in twins and quantified the percentage of variance in weight change attributable to social contact, genetic factors, and other environmental influences. Participants were 1966 monozygotic and 1529 dizygotic male twin pairs from the Vietnam-Era Twin Registry. Regression models tested whether frequency of social contact and zygosity predicted twin pair similarity in body mass index (BMI) change and weight change. Twin modeling was used to partition the percentage variance attributable to social contact, genetic, and other environmental effects. Twins gained an average of 3.99 BMI units, or 13.23 kg (29.11 lb), over 21 y. In regression models, both zygosity (P < 0.001) and degree of social contact (P < 0.02) significantly predicted twin pair similarity in BMI change. In twin modeling, social contact between twins contributed 16% of the variance in BMI change (P < 0.001), whereas genetic factors contributed 42%, with no effect of additional shared environmental factors (1%). Similar results were obtained for weight change. Frequency of social contact significantly predicted twin pair similarity in BMI and weight change over 21 y, independent of zygosity and other shared environmental influences.

A population study of correlates of social participation in older adults with age-related vision loss.

PubMed

Cimarolli, Verena R; Boerner, Kathrin; Reinhardt, Joann P; Horowitz, Amy; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Schilling, Oliver; Brennan-Ing, Mark

2017-01-01

To examine personal characteristics, disease-related impairment variables, activity limitations, and environmental factors as correlates of social participation in older adults with vision loss guided by the World Health Organization's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Model. Baseline data of a larger longitudinal study. Community-based vision rehabilitation agency. A total of 364 older adults with significant vision impairment due to age-related macular degeneration. In-person interviews assessing social participation (i.e. frequency of social support contacts, social/leisure challenges faced due to vision loss, and of social support provided to others) and hypothesized correlates (e.g. visual acuity test, Functional Vision Screening Questionnaire, ratings of attachment to house and neighborhood, environmental modifications in home). Regression analyses showed that indicators of physical, social, and mental functioning (e.g. better visual function, fewer difficulties with instrumental activities of daily living, fewer depressive symptoms) were positively related to social participation indicators (greater social contacts, less challenges in social/leisure domains, and providing more support to others). Environmental factors also emerged as independent correlates of social participation indicators when functional variables were controlled. That is, participants reporting higher attachment to their neighborhood and better income adequacy reported having more social contacts; and those implementing more environmental strategies were more likely to report greater challenges in social and leisure domains. Better income adequacy and living with more people were related to providing more social support to others. Environmental variables may play a role in the social participation of older adults with age-related macular degeneration.

Species distribution modelling for Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Benin, West Africa: comparing datasets and modelling algorithms.

PubMed

De Clercq, E M; Leta, S; Estrada-Peña, A; Madder, M; Adehan, S; Vanwambeke, S O

2015-01-01

Rhipicephalus microplus is one of the most widely distributed and economically important ticks, transmitting Babesia bigemina, B. bovis and Anaplasma marginale. It was recently introduced to West Africa on live animals originating from Brazil. Knowing the precise environmental suitability for the tick would allow veterinary health officials to draft vector control strategies for different regions of the country. To test the performance of modelling algorithms and different sets of environmental explanatory variables, species distribution models for this tick species in Benin were developed using generalized linear models, linear discriminant analysis and random forests. The training data for these models were a dataset containing reported absence or presence in 104 farms, randomly selected across Benin. These farms were sampled at the end of the rainy season, which corresponds with an annual peak in tick abundance. Two environmental datasets for the country of Benin were compared: one based on interpolated climate data (WorldClim) and one based on remotely sensed images (MODIS). The pixel size for both environmental datasets was 1 km. Highly suitable areas occurred mainly along the warmer and humid coast extending northwards to central Benin. The northern hot and drier areas were found to be unsuitable. The models developed and tested on data from the entire country were generally found to perform well, having an AUC value greater than 0.92. Although statistically significant, only small differences in accuracy measures were found between the modelling algorithms, or between the environmental datasets. The resulting risk maps differed nonetheless. Models based on interpolated climate suggested gradual variations in habitat suitability, while those based on remotely sensed data indicated a sharper contrast between suitable and unsuitable areas, and a patchy distribution of the suitable areas. Remotely sensed data yielded more spatial detail in the predictions. When computing accuracy measures on a subset of data along the invasion front, the modelling technique Random Forest outperformed the other modelling approaches, and results with MODIS-derived variables were better than those using WorldClim data. The high environmental suitability for R. microplus in the southern half of Benin raises concern at the regional level for animal health, including its potential to substantially alter transmission risk of Babesia bovis. The northern part of Benin appeared overall of low environmental suitability. Continuous surveillance in the transition zone however remains relevant, in relation to important cattle movements in the region, and to the invasive character of R. microplus. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anaerobic co-digestion of municipal food waste and sewage sludge: A comparative life cycle assessment in the context of a waste service provision.

PubMed

Edwards, Joel; Othman, Maazuza; Crossin, Enda; Burn, Stewart

2017-01-01

This study used life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impact of anaerobic co-digestion (AcoD) and compared it against the current waste management system in two case study areas. Results indicated AcoD to have less environmental impact for all categories modelled excluding human toxicity, despite the need to collect and pre-treat food waste separately. Uncertainty modelling confirmed that AcoD has a 100% likelihood of a smaller global warming potential, and for acidification, eutrophication and fossil fuel depletion AcoD carried a greater than 85% confidence of inducing a lesser impact than the current waste service. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pteropods on the edge: Cumulative effects of ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bednaršek, Nina; Harvey, Chris J.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Feely, Richard A.; Možina, Jasna

2016-06-01

We review the state of knowledge of the individual and community responses of euthecosome (shelled) pteropods in the context of global environmental change. In particular, we focus on their responses to ocean acidification, in combination with ocean warming and ocean deoxygenation, as inferred from a growing body of empirical literature, and their relatively nascent place in ecosystem-scale models. Our objectives are: (1) to summarize the threats that these stressors pose to pteropod populations; (2) to demonstrate that pteropods are strong candidate indicators for cumulative effects of OA, warming, and deoxygenation in marine ecosystems; and (3) to provide insight on incorporating pteropods into population and ecosystem models, which will help inform ecosystem-based management of marine resources under future environmental regimes.

Sustainability at the local scale: defining highly aggregated indices for assessing environmental performance. The province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a case study.

PubMed

Clerici, Nicola; Bodini, Antonio; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2004-10-01

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders' priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.

Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling.

PubMed

Moraitis, Manos L; Tsikopoulou, Irini; Geropoulos, Antonios; Dimitriou, Panagiotis D; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Valavanis, Vasilis D; Karakassis, Ioannis

2018-05-24

Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global environmental ratings as an instrument of environmental policies: what factors determine the rank of Russia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseeva, Nina; Arshinova, Marina; Milanova, Elena

2017-04-01

Systems of global environmental rankings have emerged as a result of the escalating need for revealing the trends of ecological development for the world and for certain countries and regions. Both the environmental indicators and indexes and the ratings made on their basis are important for the assessment and forecast of the ecological situation in order to tackle the global and regional problems of sustainable development and help to translate the research findings into policy developments. Data sources for the global environmental ratings are most often the statistical information accumulated in databases of the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, FAO, WHO, etc.) These data are highly reliable and well-comparable that makes the ratings very objective. There are also good examples of using data of sociological polls, information from social networks, etc. The global environmental ratings are produced by the international organizations (World Bank, World Resources Institute, the UN Environment Program), non-governmental associations (WWF, Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E), Germanwatch Nord-Süd-Initiative, Friends of the Earth, World Development Movement), research structures (scientific centers of the Yale and Colombian universities, the Oak-Ridge National Laboratory, the New Economic Foundation), and also individual experts, news agencies, etc. Thematic (sectoral) ratings cover various spheres from availability of resources and anthropogenic impact on environment components to nature protection policies and perception of environmental problems. The environmental indicators cover all parameters important for understanding the current ecological situation and the trajectories of its development (the DPSIR model, i.e. drivers, pressures, state, impact and response). Complex (integral) ratings are based on environmental indexes which are combined measurement tools using a complex of aggregated indicators based on a wide range of primary data allowing to record and measure various environmental phenomena and characteristics. The main difficulty of information aggregation into environmental indexes is the weighting of initial data. The principal requirement to such measuring system is its informational completeness and adequacy of parameters for the representation of economic, environmental and social components of sustainable development. The analysis of indexes and systems of ecological ratings showed their efficiency, so the application of indicators and integral indexes can become a basis for scheduling the strategic changes in natural and socio-economic systems. Indicators provide an objective picture of the state of various spheres of economic activities and allow understanding the key environmental, economic and social problems and planning for their solution, thus paving the way to introduce scientific developments and public perception into policy-making. The comparative analysis of the ranks of Russia in global ecological ratings showed that in terms of the per capita potential of biocapacity and availability of resources Russia advances many countries of the world. Among the environmental problems the most actual are the development of low-carbon power production and the use of renewable energy full in line with the SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). It will not only reduce the environment pollution, but also contribute to slowing the rates of climate change (the SDG 13 Climate Action).

Socioeconomic dynamics of water quality in the Egyptian Nile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Maheen; Nisar, Zainab; Karakatsanis, Georgios

2016-04-01

The Nile River remains the most important source of freshwater for Egypt as it accounts for nearly all of the country's drinking and irrigation water. About 95% of the total population is accounted to live along the Banks of the Nile(1). Therefore, water quality deterioration in addition to general natural scarcity of water in the region(2) is the main driver for carrying out this study. What further aggravates this issue is the water conflict in the Blue Nile region. The study evaluates different water quality parameters and their concentrations in the Egyptian Nile; further assessing the temporal dynamics of water quality in the area with (a) the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)(3) and (b) the Jevons Paradox (JP)(4) in order to identify water quality improvements or degradations using selected socioeconomic variables(5). For this purpose various environmental indicators including BOD, COD, DO, Phosphorus and TDS were plotted against different economic variables including Population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Annual Fresh Water Withdrawal and Improved Water Source. Mathematically, this was expressed by 2nd and 3rd degree polynomial regressions generating the EKC and JP respectively. The basic goal of the regression analysis is to model and highlight the dynamic trend of water quality indicators in relation to their established permissible limits, which will allow the identification of optimal future water quality policies. The results clearly indicate that the dependency of water quality indicators on socioeconomic variables differs for every indicator; while COD was above the permissible limits in all the cases despite of its decreasing trend in each case, BOD and phosphate signified increasing concentrations for the future, if they continue to follow the present trend. This could be an indication of rebound effect explained by the Jevons Paradox i.e. water quality deterioration after its improvement, either due to increase of population or intensification of economic activities related to these indicators. Keywords: Water quality dynamics, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Jevons Paradox (JP), economic variables, polynomial regressions, environmental indicators, permissible limit References: (1)Evans, A. (2007). River of Life River Nile. (2)Egypt's Water Crisis - Recipe for Disaster. (2016). [Blog] EcoMENA- Echoing Sustainability. (3)Alstine, J. and Neumayer, E. (2010). The Environmental Kuznets Curve. (4)Garrett, T. (2014). Rebound, Backfire, and the Jevons Paradox. [Blog] (5)Data.worldbank.org

Mercury enrichment indicates volcanic triggering of Valanginian environmental change

PubMed Central

Charbonnier, Guillaume; Morales, Chloé; Duchamp-Alphonse, Stéphanie; Westermann, Stéphane; Adatte, Thierry; Föllmi, Karl B.

2017-01-01

The Valanginian stage (Early Cretaceous) includes an episode of significant environmental changes, which are well defined by a positive δ13C excursion. This globally recorded excursion indicates important perturbations in the carbon cycle, which has tentatively been associated with a pulse in volcanic activity and the formation of the Paraná-Etendeka large igneous province (LIP). Uncertainties in existing age models preclude, however, its positive identification as a trigger of Valanginian environmental changes. Here we report that in Valanginian sediments recovered from a drill core in Wąwał (Polish Basin, Poland), and from outcrops in the Breggia Gorge (Lombardian Basin, southern Switzerland), and Orpierre and Angles (Vocontian Basin, SE France), intervals at or near the onset of the positive δ13C excursion are significantly enriched in mercury (Hg). The persistence of the Hg anomaly in Hg/TOC, Hg/phyllosilicate, and Hg/Fe ratios shows that organic-matter scavenging and/or adsorbtion onto clay minerals or hydrous iron oxides only played a limited role. Volcanic outgassing was most probably the primary source of the Hg enrichments, which demonstrate that an important magmatic pulse triggered the Valanginian environmental perturbations. PMID:28106091

A Review of Environmental Life Cycle Assessments of Liquid Transportation Biofuels in the Pan American Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shonnard, David R.; Klemetsrud, Bethany; Sacramento-Rivero, Julio; Navarro-Pineda, Freddy; Hilbert, Jorge; Handler, Robert; Suppen, Nydia; Donovan, Richard P.

2015-12-01

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) has been applied to many biofuel and bioenergy systems to determine potential environmental impacts, but the conclusions have varied. Different methodologies and processes for conducting LCA of biofuels make the results difficult to compare, in-turn making it difficult to make the best possible and informed decision. Of particular importance are the wide variability in country-specific conditions, modeling assumptions, data quality, chosen impact categories and indicators, scale of production, system boundaries, and co-product allocation. This study has a double purpose: conducting a critical evaluation comparing environmental LCA of biofuels from several conversion pathways and in several countries in the Pan American region using both qualitative and quantitative analyses, and making recommendations for harmonization with respect to biofuel LCA study features, such as study assumptions, inventory data, impact indicators, and reporting practices. The environmental management implications are discussed within the context of different national and international regulatory environments using a case study. The results from this study highlight LCA methodology choices that cause high variability in results and limit comparability among different studies, even among the same biofuel pathway, and recommendations are provided for improvement.

A Review of Environmental Life Cycle Assessments of Liquid Transportation Biofuels in the Pan American Region.

PubMed

Shonnard, David R; Klemetsrud, Bethany; Sacramento-Rivero, Julio; Navarro-Pineda, Freddy; Hilbert, Jorge; Handler, Robert; Suppen, Nydia; Donovan, Richard P

2015-12-01

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) has been applied to many biofuel and bioenergy systems to determine potential environmental impacts, but the conclusions have varied. Different methodologies and processes for conducting LCA of biofuels make the results difficult to compare, in-turn making it difficult to make the best possible and informed decision. Of particular importance are the wide variability in country-specific conditions, modeling assumptions, data quality, chosen impact categories and indicators, scale of production, system boundaries, and co-product allocation. This study has a double purpose: conducting a critical evaluation comparing environmental LCA of biofuels from several conversion pathways and in several countries in the Pan American region using both qualitative and quantitative analyses, and making recommendations for harmonization with respect to biofuel LCA study features, such as study assumptions, inventory data, impact indicators, and reporting practices. The environmental management implications are discussed within the context of different national and international regulatory environments using a case study. The results from this study highlight LCA methodology choices that cause high variability in results and limit comparability among different studies, even among the same biofuel pathway, and recommendations are provided for improvement.

Horses for courses: analytical tools to explore planetary boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Häyhä, Tiina; Cornell, Sarah E.; Stafford-Smith, Mark

2016-03-01

There is a need for more integrated research on sustainable development and global environmental change. In this paper, we focus on the planetary boundaries framework to provide a systematic categorization of key research questions in relation to avoiding severe global environmental degradation. The four categories of key questions are those that relate to (1) the underlying processes and selection of key indicators for planetary boundaries, (2) understanding the impacts of environmental pressure and connections between different types of impacts, (3) better understanding of different response strategies to avoid further degradation, and (4) the available instruments to implement such strategies. Clearly, different categories of scientific disciplines and associated model types exist that can accommodate answering these questions. We identify the strength and weaknesses of different research areas in relation to the question categories, focusing specifically on different types of models. We discuss that more interdisciplinary research is need to increase our understanding by better linking human drivers and social and biophysical impacts. This requires better collaboration between relevant disciplines (associated with the model types), either by exchanging information or by fully linking or integrating them. As fully integrated models can become too complex, the appropriate type of model (the racehorse) should be applied for answering the target research question (the race course).

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Tree-based modeling of complex interactions of phosphorus loadings and environmental factors.

PubMed

Grunwald, S; Daroub, S H; Lang, T A; Diaz, O A

2009-06-01

Phosphorus (P) enrichment has been observed in the historic oligotrophic Greater Everglades in Florida mainly due to P influx from upstream, agriculturally dominated, low relief drainage basins of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). Our specific objectives were to: (1) investigate relationships between various environmental factors and P loads in 10 farm basins within the EAA, (2) identify those environmental factors that impart major effects on P loads using three different tree-based modeling approaches, and (3) evaluate predictive models to assess P loads. We assembled thirteen environmental variable sets for all 10 sub-basins characterizing water level management, cropping practices, soils, hydrology, and farm-specific properties. Drainage flow and P concentrations were measured at each sub-basin outlet from 1992-2002 and aggregated to derive monthly P loads. We used three different tree-based models including single regression trees (ST), committee trees in Bagging (CTb) and ARCing (CTa) modes and ten-fold cross-validation to test prediction performances. The monthly P loads (MPL) during the monitoring period showed a maximum of 2528 kg (mean: 103 kg) and maximum monthly unit area P loads (UAL) of 4.88 kg P ha(-1) (mean: 0.16 kg P ha(-1)). Our results suggest that hydrologic/water management properties are the major controlling variables to predict MPL and UAL in the EAA. Tree-based modeling was successful in identifying relationships between P loads and environmental predictor variables on 10 farms in the EAA indicated by high R(2) (>0.80) and low prediction errors. Committee trees in ARCing mode generated the best performing models to predict P loads and P loads per unit area. Tree-based models had the ability to analyze complex, non-linear relationships between P loads and multiple variables describing hydrologic/water management, cropping practices, soil and farm-specific properties within the EAA.

Utilization of combined remote sensing techniques to detect environmental variables influencing malaria vector densities in rural West Africa

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction The use of remote sensing has found its way into the field of epidemiology within the last decades. With the increased sensor resolution of recent and future satellites new possibilities emerge for high resolution risk modeling and risk mapping. Methods A SPOT 5 satellite image, taken during the rainy season 2009 was used for calculating indices by combining the image's spectral bands. Besides the widely used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) other indices were tested for significant correlation against field observations. Multiple steps, including the detection of surface water, its breeding appropriateness for Anopheles and modeling of vector imagines abundance, were performed. Data collection on larvae, adult vectors and geographic parameters in the field, was amended by using remote sensing techniques to gather data on altitude (Digital Elevation Model = DEM), precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission = TRMM), land surface temperatures (LST). Results The DEM derived altitude as well as indices calculations combining the satellite's spectral bands (NDTI = Normalized Difference Turbidity Index, NDWI Mac Feeters = Normalized Difference Water Index) turned out to be reliable indicators for surface water in the local geographic setting. While Anopheles larvae abundance in habitats is driven by multiple, interconnected factors - amongst which the NDVI - and precipitation events, the presence of vector imagines was found to be correlated negatively to remotely sensed LST and positively to the cumulated amount of rainfall in the preceding 15 days and to the Normalized Difference Pond Index (NDPI) within the 500 m buffer zone around capture points. Conclusions Remotely sensed geographical and meteorological factors, including precipitations, temperature, as well as vegetation, humidity and land cover indicators could be used as explanatory variables for surface water presence, larval development and imagines densities. This modeling approach based on remotely sensed information is potentially useful for counter measures that are putting on at the environmental side, namely vector larvae control via larviciding and water body reforming. PMID:22443452

Utilization of combined remote sensing techniques to detect environmental variables influencing malaria vector densities in rural West Africa.

PubMed

Dambach, Peter; Machault, Vanessa; Lacaux, Jean-Pierre; Vignolles, Cécile; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-03-23

The use of remote sensing has found its way into the field of epidemiology within the last decades. With the increased sensor resolution of recent and future satellites new possibilities emerge for high resolution risk modeling and risk mapping. A SPOT 5 satellite image, taken during the rainy season 2009 was used for calculating indices by combining the image's spectral bands. Besides the widely used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) other indices were tested for significant correlation against field observations. Multiple steps, including the detection of surface water, its breeding appropriateness for Anopheles and modeling of vector imagines abundance, were performed. Data collection on larvae, adult vectors and geographic parameters in the field, was amended by using remote sensing techniques to gather data on altitude (Digital Elevation Model = DEM), precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission = TRMM), land surface temperatures (LST). The DEM derived altitude as well as indices calculations combining the satellite's spectral bands (NDTI = Normalized Difference Turbidity Index, NDWI Mac Feeters = Normalized Difference Water Index) turned out to be reliable indicators for surface water in the local geographic setting. While Anopheles larvae abundance in habitats is driven by multiple, interconnected factors - amongst which the NDVI - and precipitation events, the presence of vector imagines was found to be correlated negatively to remotely sensed LST and positively to the cumulated amount of rainfall in the preceding 15 days and to the Normalized Difference Pond Index (NDPI) within the 500 m buffer zone around capture points. Remotely sensed geographical and meteorological factors, including precipitations, temperature, as well as vegetation, humidity and land cover indicators could be used as explanatory variables for surface water presence, larval development and imagines densities. This modeling approach based on remotely sensed information is potentially useful for counter measures that are putting on at the environmental side, namely vector larvae control via larviciding and water body reforming. © 2012 Dambach et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Environmental efficiency of alternative dairy systems: a productive efficiency approach.

PubMed

Toma, L; March, M; Stott, A W; Roberts, D J

2013-01-01

Agriculture across the globe needs to produce "more with less." Productivity should be increased in a sustainable manner so that the environment is not further degraded, management practices are both socially acceptable and economically favorable, and future generations are not disadvantaged. The objective of this paper was to compare the environmental efficiency of 2 divergent strains of Holstein-Friesian cows across 2 contrasting dairy management systems (grazing and nongrazing) over multiple years and so expose any genetic × environment (G × E) interaction. The models were an extension of the traditional efficiency analysis to account for undesirable outputs (pollutants), and estimate efficiency measures that allow for the asymmetric treatment of desirable outputs (i.e., milk production) and undesirable outputs. Two types of models were estimated, one considering production inputs (land, nitrogen fertilizers, feed, and cows) and the other not, thus allowing the assessment of the effect of inputs by comparing efficiency values and rankings between models. Each model type had 2 versions, one including 2 types of pollutants (greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen surplus) and the other 3 (greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen surplus, and phosphorus surplus). Significant differences were found between efficiency scores among the systems. Results indicated no G × E interaction; however, even though the select genetic merit herd consuming a diet with a higher proportion of concentrated feeds was most efficient in the majority of models, cows of the same genetic merit on higher forage diets could be just as efficient. Efficiency scores for the low forage groups were less variable from year to year, which reflected the uniformity of purchased concentrate feeds. The results also indicate that inputs play an important role in the measurement of environmental efficiency of dairy systems and that animal health variables (incidence of udder health disorders and body condition score) have a significant effect on the environmental efficiency of each dairy system. We conclude that traditional narrow measures of performance may not always distinguish dairy farming systems best fitted to future requirements. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nematode distributions as spatial null models for macroinvertebrate species richness across environmental gradients: A case from mountain lakes.

PubMed

de Mendoza, Guillermo; Traunspurger, Walter; Palomo, Alejandro; Catalan, Jordi

2017-05-01

Nematode species are widely tolerant of environmental conditions and disperse passively. Therefore, the species richness distribution in this group might largely depend on the topological distribution of the habitats and main aerial and aquatic dispersal pathways connecting them. If so, the nematode species richness distributions may serve as null models for evaluating that of other groups more affected by environmental gradients. We investigated this hypothesis in lakes across an altitudinal gradient in the Pyrenees. We compared the altitudinal distribution, environmental tolerance, and species richness, of nematodes with that of three other invertebrate groups collected during the same sampling: oligochaetes, chironomids, and nonchironomid insects. We tested the altitudinal bias in distributions with t -tests and the significance of narrow-ranging altitudinal distributions with randomizations. We compared results between groups with Fisher's exact tests. We then explored the influence of environmental factors on species assemblages in all groups with redundancy analysis (RDA), using 28 environmental variables. And, finally, we analyzed species richness patterns across altitude with simple linear and quadratic regressions. Nematode species were rarely biased from random distributions (5% of species) in contrast with other groups (35%, 47%, and 50%, respectively). The altitudinal bias most often shifted toward low altitudes (85% of biased species). Nematodes showed a lower portion of narrow-ranging species than any other group, and differed significantly from nonchironomid insects (10% and 43%, respectively). Environmental variables barely explained nematode assemblages (RDA adjusted R 2  = 0.02), in contrast with other groups (0.13, 0.19 and 0.24). Despite these substantial differences in the response to environmental factors, species richness across altitude was unimodal, peaking at mid elevations, in all groups. This similarity indicates that the spatial distribution of lakes across altitude is a primary driver of invertebrate richness. Provided that nematodes are ubiquitous, their distribution offers potential null models to investigate species richness across environmental gradients in other ecosystem types and biogeographic regions.

Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Woo, Jean; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

2017-08-31

Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also developed a framework to map geriatric depression risk across a city, which can be used for identifying neighborhoods with higher risk for public health surveillance and sustainable urban planning.

Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach

PubMed Central

Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

2017-01-01

Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also developed a framework to map geriatric depression risk across a city, which can be used for identifying neighborhoods with higher risk for public health surveillance and sustainable urban planning. PMID:28858265

Application of multimedia models for screening assessment of long-range transport potential and overall persistence.

PubMed

Klasmeier, Jörg; Matthies, Michael; Macleod, Matthew; Fenner, Kathrin; Scheringer, Martin; Stroebe, Maximilian; Le Gall, Anne Christine; Mckone, Thomas; Van De Meent, Dik; Wania, Frank

2006-01-01

We propose a multimedia model-based methodology to evaluate whether a chemical substance qualifies as POP-like based on overall persistence (Pov) and potential for long-range transport (LRTP). It relies upon screening chemicals against the Pov and LRTP characteristics of selected reference chemicals with well-established environmental fates. Results indicate that chemicals of high and low concern in terms of persistence and long-range transport can be consistently identified by eight contemporary multimedia models using the proposed methodology. Model results for three hypothetical chemicals illustrate that the model-based classification of chemicals according to Pov and LRTP is not always consistent with the single-media half-life approach proposed by the UNEP Stockholm Convention and thatthe models provide additional insight into the likely long-term hazards associated with chemicals in the environment. We suggest this model-based classification method be adopted as a complement to screening against defined half-life criteria at the initial stages of tiered assessments designed to identify POP-like chemicals and to prioritize further environmental fate studies for new and existing chemicals.

Mapping Environmental Inequalities Relevant for Health for Informing Urban Planning Interventions-A Case Study in the City of Dortmund, Germany.

PubMed

Flacke, Johannes; Schüle, Steffen Andreas; Köckler, Heike; Bolte, Gabriele

2016-07-13

Spatial differences in urban environmental conditions contribute to health inequalities within cities. The purpose of the paper is to map environmental inequalities relevant for health in the City of Dortmund, Germany, in order to identify needs for planning interventions. We develop suitable indicators for mapping socioeconomically-driven environmental inequalities at the neighborhood level based on published scientific evidence and inputs from local stakeholders. Relationships between socioeconomic and environmental indicators at the level of 170 neighborhoods were analyzed continuously with Spearman rank correlation coefficients and categorically applying chi-squared tests. Reclassified socioeconomic and environmental indicators were then mapped at the neighborhood level in order to determine multiple environmental burdens and hotspots of environmental inequalities related to health. Results show that the majority of environmental indicators correlate significantly, leading to multiple environmental burdens in specific neighborhoods. Some of these neighborhoods also have significantly larger proportions of inhabitants of a lower socioeconomic position indicating hotspots of environmental inequalities. Suitable planning interventions mainly comprise transport planning and green space management. In the conclusions, we discuss how the analysis can be used to improve state of the art planning instruments, such as clean air action planning or noise reduction planning towards the consideration of the vulnerability of the population.

Mapping Environmental Inequalities Relevant for Health for Informing Urban Planning Interventions—A Case Study in the City of Dortmund, Germany

PubMed Central

Flacke, Johannes; Schüle, Steffen Andreas; Köckler, Heike; Bolte, Gabriele

2016-01-01

Spatial differences in urban environmental conditions contribute to health inequalities within cities. The purpose of the paper is to map environmental inequalities relevant for health in the City of Dortmund, Germany, in order to identify needs for planning interventions. We develop suitable indicators for mapping socioeconomically-driven environmental inequalities at the neighborhood level based on published scientific evidence and inputs from local stakeholders. Relationships between socioeconomic and environmental indicators at the level of 170 neighborhoods were analyzed continuously with Spearman rank correlation coefficients and categorically applying chi-squared tests. Reclassified socioeconomic and environmental indicators were then mapped at the neighborhood level in order to determine multiple environmental burdens and hotspots of environmental inequalities related to health. Results show that the majority of environmental indicators correlate significantly, leading to multiple environmental burdens in specific neighborhoods. Some of these neighborhoods also have significantly larger proportions of inhabitants of a lower socioeconomic position indicating hotspots of environmental inequalities. Suitable planning interventions mainly comprise transport planning and green space management. In the conclusions, we discuss how the analysis can be used to improve state of the art planning instruments, such as clean air action planning or noise reduction planning towards the consideration of the vulnerability of the population. PMID:27420090

Developing New Modelling Tools for Environmental Flow Assessment in Regulated Salmon Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geris, Josie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

2013-04-01

There is a strong political drive in Scotland to meet all electricity demands from renewable sources by 2020. In Scotland, hydropower generation has a long history and is a key component of this strategy. However, many rivers sustain freshwater communities that have both high conservation status and support economically important Atlantic salmon fisheries. Both new and existing hydropower schemes must be managed in accordance with the European Union's Water Framework Directive (WFD), which requires that all surface water bodies achieve good ecological status or maintain good ecological potential. Unfortunately, long-term river flow monitoring is sparse in the Scottish Highlands and there are limited data for defining environmental flows. The River Tay is the most heavily regulated catchment in the UK. To support hydropower generation, it has an extensive network of inter- and intra- catchment transfers, in addition to a large number of regulating reservoirs for which abstraction legislation often only requires minimum compensation flows. The Tay is also considered as one of Scotland's most important rivers for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), and there is considerable uncertainty as to how best change reservoir operations to improve the ecological potential of the river system. It is now usually considered that environmental flows require more than a minimum compensation flow, and instead should cover a range of hydrological flow aspects that represent ecologically relevant streamflow attributes, including magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and rate of change. For salmon, these hydrological indices are of particular interest, with requirements varying at different stages of their life cycle. To meet the WFD requirements, rationally alter current abstraction licences and provide an evidence base for regulating new hydropower schemes, advanced definitions for abstraction limits and ecologically appropriate flow releases are desirable. However, a good understanding of the natural flow variability and the hydrological impacts of the regulation is unavailable, partly because pre-regulation data of existing hydropower schemes are lacking. Here we develop a novel modelling approach for characterising natural flow regimes and defining hydrological flow indices. This allows us to quantitatively assess the impacts of hydropower to better inform environmental flow requirements for the Atlantic salmon river ecosystem. Results are presented for the River Lyon (390 km2), a regulated headwater catchment of the River Tay. The HBV hydrological rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate flows, based on calibrated parameters from regulated flow data, with the current hydropower scheme active. For this, the HBV model is adapted to be able to incorporate water transfers and regulated flows. The natural hydrological indices are derived from the simulated pre-regulation data, and compared with those of the regulated data to investigate the impact of the regulation on these at different critical times for Atlantic salmon. The sensitivity of the system to change is also investigated to explore the extent to which flow variables can be modified without major degradation to the river's ecosystem, while still maintaining viable hydropower generation. The modelling approach presented will provide the basis for assessing impacts on hydrological flow indices and informing environmental flows in regions with similar heavily regulated mountain river ecosystems.

Environmental impacts of the Swiss collection and recovery systems for Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE): a follow-up.

PubMed

Wäger, P A; Hischier, R; Eugster, M

2011-04-15

While Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) collection and recovery have significantly gained in importance all over Europe in the last 15years, comprehensive studies assessing the environmental loads and benefits of these systems still are not common. In this paper we present the results of a combined material flow analysis and life cycle assessment study, which aimed to calculate the overall environmental impacts of collection, pre-processing and end-processing for the existing Swiss WEEE collection and recovery systems, as well as of incineration and landfilling scenarios, in which the same amount of WEEE is either incinerated in a an MSWI plant or landfilled. According to the calculations based on the material flow data for the year 2009 and a new version of the ecoinvent life cycle inventory database (ecoinvent v2.01), collection, recovery and disposal result in significantly lower environmental impacts per t of WEEE for midpoint indicators such as global warming or ozone depletion and the endpoint indicator Eco-Indicator '99 points. A comparison between the environmental impacts of the WEEE recovery scenarios 2009 and 2004, both calculated with ecoinvent v2.01 data, shows that the impacts per t of WEEE in 2009 were slightly lower. This appears to be mainly due to the changes in the treatment of plastics (more recycling, less incineration). Compared to the overall environmental impacts of the recovery scenario 2004 obtained with an old version of ecoinvent (ecoinvent v1.1), the calculation with ecoinvent v2.01 results in an increase of the impacts by about 20%, which is primarily the consequence of a more adequate modeling of several WEEE fractions (e.g. metals, cables or CRT devices). In view of a further increase of the environmental benefits associated with the Swiss WEEE collection and recovery systems, the recovery of geochemically scarce metals should be further investigated, in particular. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid prediction of particulate, humus and resistant fractions of soil organic carbon in reforested lands using infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Madhavan, Dinesh B; Baldock, Jeff A; Read, Zoe J; Murphy, Simon C; Cunningham, Shaun C; Perring, Michael P; Herrmann, Tim; Lewis, Tom; Cavagnaro, Timothy R; England, Jacqueline R; Paul, Keryn I; Weston, Christopher J; Baker, Thomas G

2017-05-15

Reforestation of agricultural lands with mixed-species environmental plantings can effectively sequester C. While accurate and efficient methods for predicting soil organic C content and composition have recently been developed for soils under agricultural land uses, such methods under forested land uses are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a method using infrared spectroscopy for accurately predicting total organic C (TOC) and its fractions (particulate, POC; humus, HOC; and resistant, ROC organic C) in soils under environmental plantings. Soils were collected from 117 paired agricultural-reforestation sites across Australia. TOC fractions were determined in a subset of 38 reforested soils using physical fractionation by automated wet-sieving and 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Mid- and near-infrared spectra (MNIRS, 6000-450 cm -1 ) were acquired from finely-ground soils from environmental plantings and agricultural land. Satisfactory prediction models based on MNIRS and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were developed for TOC and its fractions. Leave-one-out cross-validations of MNIRS-PLSR models indicated accurate predictions (R 2  > 0.90, negligible bias, ratio of performance to deviation > 3) and fraction-specific functional group contributions to beta coefficients in the models. TOC and its fractions were predicted using the cross-validated models and soil spectra for 3109 reforested and agricultural soils. The reliability of predictions determined using k-nearest neighbour score distance indicated that >80% of predictions were within the satisfactory inlier limit. The study demonstrated the utility of infrared spectroscopy (MNIRS-PLSR) to rapidly and economically determine TOC and its fractions and thereby accurately describe the effects of land use change such as reforestation on agricultural soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interacting coastal based ecosystem services: recreation and water quality in Puget Sound, WA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kreitler, Jason; Papenfus, Michael; Byrd, Kristin; Labiosa, William

2013-01-01

Coastal recreation and water quality are major contributors to human well-being in coastal regions. They can also interact, creating opportunities for ecosystem based management, ecological restoration, and water quality improvement that can positively affect people and the environment. Yet the effect of environmental quality on human behavior is often poorly quantified, but commonly assumed in coastal ecosystem service studies. To clarify this effect we investigate a water quality dataset for evidence that environmental condition partially explains variation in recreational visitation, our indicator of human behavior. In Puget Sound, WA, we investigate variation in visitation in both visitation rate and fixed effects (FE) models. The visitation rate model relates the differences in annual recreational visitation among parks to environmental conditions, park characteristics, travel cost, and recreational demand. In our FE model we control for all time-invariant unobserved variables and compare monthly variation at the park level to determine how water quality affects visitation during the summer season. The results of our first model illustrate how visitation relates to various amenities and costs. In the FE analysis, monthly visitation was negatively related to water quality while controlling for monthly visitation trends. This indicates people are responding to changes in water quality, and an improvement would yield an increase in the value of recreation. Together, these results could help in prioritizing water quality improvements, could assist the creation of new parks or the modification of existing recreational infrastructure, and provide quantitative estimates for the expected benefits from potential changes in recreational visitation and water quality improvements. Our results also provide an example of how recreational visitation can be quantified and used in ecosystem service assessments.

Predicting taxonomic and functional structure of microbial communities in acid mine drainage

PubMed Central

Kuang, Jialiang; Huang, Linan; He, Zhili; Chen, Linxing; Hua, Zhengshuang; Jia, Pu; Li, Shengjin; Liu, Jun; Li, Jintian; Zhou, Jizhong; Shu, Wensheng

2016-01-01

Predicting the dynamics of community composition and functional attributes responding to environmental changes is an essential goal in community ecology but remains a major challenge, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, by targeting a model system with low species richness, we explore the spatial distribution of taxonomic and functional structure of 40 acid mine drainage (AMD) microbial communities across Southeast China profiled by 16S ribosomal RNA pyrosequencing and a comprehensive microarray (GeoChip). Similar environmentally dependent patterns of dominant microbial lineages and key functional genes were observed regardless of the large-scale geographical isolation. Functional and phylogenetic β-diversities were significantly correlated, whereas functional metabolic potentials were strongly influenced by environmental conditions and community taxonomic structure. Using advanced modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks, we successfully predicted the taxonomic and functional dynamics with significantly higher prediction accuracies of metabolic potentials (average Bray–Curtis similarity 87.8) as compared with relative microbial abundances (similarity 66.8), implying that natural AMD microbial assemblages may be better predicted at the functional genes level rather than at taxonomic level. Furthermore, relative metabolic potentials of genes involved in many key ecological functions (for example, nitrogen and phosphate utilization, metals resistance and stress response) were extrapolated to increase under more acidic and metal-rich conditions, indicating a critical strategy of stress adaptation in these extraordinary communities. Collectively, our findings indicate that natural selection rather than geographic distance has a more crucial role in shaping the taxonomic and functional patterns of AMD microbial community that readily predicted by modeling methods and suggest that the model-based approach is essential to better understand natural acidophilic microbial communities. PMID:26943622

Predicting taxonomic and functional structure of microbial communities in acid mine drainage.

PubMed

Kuang, Jialiang; Huang, Linan; He, Zhili; Chen, Linxing; Hua, Zhengshuang; Jia, Pu; Li, Shengjin; Liu, Jun; Li, Jintian; Zhou, Jizhong; Shu, Wensheng

2016-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of community composition and functional attributes responding to environmental changes is an essential goal in community ecology but remains a major challenge, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, by targeting a model system with low species richness, we explore the spatial distribution of taxonomic and functional structure of 40 acid mine drainage (AMD) microbial communities across Southeast China profiled by 16S ribosomal RNA pyrosequencing and a comprehensive microarray (GeoChip). Similar environmentally dependent patterns of dominant microbial lineages and key functional genes were observed regardless of the large-scale geographical isolation. Functional and phylogenetic β-diversities were significantly correlated, whereas functional metabolic potentials were strongly influenced by environmental conditions and community taxonomic structure. Using advanced modeling approaches based on artificial neural networks, we successfully predicted the taxonomic and functional dynamics with significantly higher prediction accuracies of metabolic potentials (average Bray-Curtis similarity 87.8) as compared with relative microbial abundances (similarity 66.8), implying that natural AMD microbial assemblages may be better predicted at the functional genes level rather than at taxonomic level. Furthermore, relative metabolic potentials of genes involved in many key ecological functions (for example, nitrogen and phosphate utilization, metals resistance and stress response) were extrapolated to increase under more acidic and metal-rich conditions, indicating a critical strategy of stress adaptation in these extraordinary communities. Collectively, our findings indicate that natural selection rather than geographic distance has a more crucial role in shaping the taxonomic and functional patterns of AMD microbial community that readily predicted by modeling methods and suggest that the model-based approach is essential to better understand natural acidophilic microbial communities.

Interacting Coastal Based Ecosystem Services: Recreation and Water Quality in Puget Sound, WA

PubMed Central

Kreitler, Jason; Papenfus, Michael; Byrd, Kristin; Labiosa, William

2013-01-01

Coastal recreation and water quality are major contributors to human well-being in coastal regions. They can also interact, creating opportunities for ecosystem based management, ecological restoration, and water quality improvement that can positively affect people and the environment. Yet the effect of environmental quality on human behavior is often poorly quantified, but commonly assumed in coastal ecosystem service studies. To clarify this effect we investigate a water quality dataset for evidence that environmental condition partially explains variation in recreational visitation, our indicator of human behavior. In Puget Sound, WA, we investigate variation in visitation in both visitation rate and fixed effects (FE) models. The visitation rate model relates the differences in annual recreational visitation among parks to environmental conditions, park characteristics, travel cost, and recreational demand. In our FE model we control for all time-invariant unobserved variables and compare monthly variation at the park level to determine how water quality affects visitation during the summer season. The results of our first model illustrate how visitation relates to various amenities and costs. In the FE analysis, monthly visitation was negatively related to water quality while controlling for monthly visitation trends. This indicates people are responding to changes in water quality, and an improvement would yield an increase in the value of recreation. Together, these results could help in prioritizing water quality improvements, could assist the creation of new parks or the modification of existing recreational infrastructure, and provide quantitative estimates for the expected benefits from potential changes in recreational visitation and water quality improvements. Our results also provide an example of how recreational visitation can be quantified and used in ecosystem service assessments. PMID:23451067

Life cycle assessment of second generation (2G) and third generation (3G) mobile phone networks.

PubMed

Scharnhorst, Wolfram; Hilty, Lorenz M; Jolliet, Olivier

2006-07-01

The environmental performance of presently operated GSM and UMTS networks was analysed concentrating on the environmental effects of the End-of-Life (EOL) phase using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. The study was performed based on comprehensive life cycle inventory and life cycle modelling. The environmental effects were quantified using the IMPACT2002+ method. Based on technological forecasts, the environmental effects of forthcoming mobile telephone networks were approximated. The results indicate that a parallel operation of GSM and UMTS networks is environmentally detrimental and the transition phase should be kept as short as possible. The use phase (i.e. the operation) of the radio network components account for a large fraction of the total environmental impact. In particular, there is a need to lower the energy consumption of those network components. Seen in relation to each other, UMTS networks provide an environmentally more efficient mobile communication technology than GSM networks. In assessing the EOL phase, recycling the electronic scrap of mobile phone networks was shown to have clear environmental benefits. Under the present conditions, material recycling could help lower the environmental impact of the production phase by up to 50%.

COHORT CHANGE, DIFFUSION, AND SUPPORT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES.

PubMed

Pampel, Fred C; Hunter, Lori M

2012-09-01

The long-standing and sometimes heated debates over the direction and size of the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on environmental concern contrast post-materialist and affluence arguments, suggesting a positive relationship in high-income nations, with counter arguments for a negative or near zero relationship. A diffusion-of-innovations approach adapts parts of both arguments by predicting that high SES groups first adopt pro-environmental views, which produces a positive relationship. Like other innovations, however, environmentalism diffuses over time to other SES groups, which subsequently weakens the association. We test this argument using the General Social Survey from 1973 to 2008 to compare support for environmental spending across 83 cohorts born from around 1900 to 1982. In developing attitudes before, during, and after the emergence of environmentalism, varying cohorts provide the contrast needed to identify long-term changes in environmental concern. Multilevel age, period, and cohort models support diffusion arguments by demonstrating the effects, across cohorts, of three common indicators of SES - education, income and occupational prestige - first strengthen and then weaken. This finding suggests that diffusion of environmental concern first produces positive relationships consistent with postmaterialism arguments and later produces null or negative relationships consistent with global environmentalism arguments.

Environmental indicators for sustainability: a strategic analysis for the sugarcane ethanol context in Brazil.

PubMed

Gomes, Priscila; Malheiros, Tadeu; Fernandes, Valdir; Sobral, Maria do Carmo

2016-01-01

Sugarcane ethanol is considered a renewable energy source and has emerged as a potential alternative to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, particularly in Brazil. However, there are some questions about how sustainable this energy source is, given the impacts from its production and use on a larger scale. To understand and achieve sustainability, it is essential to build tools that can assess an integrated conception and help decision-makers to establish public policies for a sustainable development. The indicators appear as such tools by capturing the complexity without reducing the significance of each system's component. The environmental indicators such as water quality indicator represent the level of water pollution, considering several parameters. The importance of the development, selection and validation of environmental indicators through a structured and cohesive process becomes essential. In the State of São Paulo, in Brazil, the environmental indicators, as well as policies based on them, are defined by the Environmental Secretariat (SMA/SP). This article presents an environmental indicator's evaluation method and reports based on the discussions about sustainability for the ethanol sugarcane context in the State of São Paulo. The method consists of interviews and an expert's workshop which pointed out a set of benchmarks for the evaluation of environmental indicators. The procedures were applied to an indicator used by the SMA/SP to illustrate the method's effectiveness. The results show that a strategic analysis framework can improve the environmental indicators required for the discussion on sustainability, providing a better guide to decision-makers.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 2: Applications and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

2008-07-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental projections such as climate change.

Public Participation Planning of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Regulations: Analysis of Inconsistency for Some Cases in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindrayani, Aniek; Purwanto

2018-02-01

The failure in community involvement during the environmental documents planning may result in the failure of the planned project implementation. This study aims to determine the gap between practices and regulations that apply to the process of community involvement in the environmental documents planning, and find out inconsistency of implementation on each stakeholder in the planning of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and the environmental permit. The method used was qualitative through interview and literature study which is analyzed using triangulation model and presented in the form of concept map. The results of the study indicate that 1) the determination of community representatives based on the criteria of the impacted communities is not clearly described, 3) suggestions, opinions, and responses to the environmental impact management are not well implemented by the project proponent, 3) implementation of the environmental management of other licensed activities affecting the behavior (4) stakeholders (project proponent, EIA consultants, and EIA appraisal committee) do not play their role as mandated in applicable legislation.

Environmental changes and violent conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernauer, Thomas; Böhmelt, Tobias; Koubi, Vally

2012-03-01

This letter reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. The available evidence from qualitative case studies indicates that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict in some specific cases. Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in drawing general conclusions. Those large-N studies that we regard as the most sophisticated ones obtain results that are not robust to alternative model specifications and, thus, have been debated. This suggests that environmental changes may, under specific circumstances, increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally. Hence there is, to date, no scientific consensus on the impact of environmental changes on violent conflict. This letter also highlights the most important challenges for further research on the subject. One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity. In the authors' view, the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict.

Genetic and environmental influences on thin-ideal internalization across puberty and preadolescent, adolescent, and young adult development.

PubMed

Suisman, Jessica L; Thompson, J Kevin; Keel, Pamela K; Burt, S Alexandra; Neale, Michael; Boker, Steven; Sisk, Cheryl; Klump, Kelly L

2014-11-01

Mean-levels of thin-ideal internalization increase during adolescence and pubertal development, but it is unknown whether these phenotypic changes correspond to developmental changes in etiological (i.e., genetic and environmental) risk. Given the limited knowledge on risk for thin-ideal internalization, research is needed to guide the identification of specific types of risk factors during critical developmental periods. The present twin study examined genetic and environmental influences on thin-ideal internalization across adolescent and pubertal development. Participants were 1,064 female twins (ages 8-25 years) from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Thin-ideal internalization and pubertal development were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Twin moderation models were used to examine if age and/or pubertal development moderate genetic and environmental influences on thin-ideal internalization. Phenotypic analyses indicated significant increases in thin-ideal internalization across age and pubertal development. Twin models suggested no significant differences in etiologic effects across development. Nonshared environmental influences were most important in the etiology of thin-ideal internalization, with genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental accounting for approximately 8%, 15%, and 72%, respectively, of the total variance. Despite mean-level increases in thin-ideal internalization across development, the relative influence of genetic versus environmental risk did not differ significantly across age or pubertal groups. The majority of variance in thin-ideal internalization was accounted for by environmental factors, suggesting that mean-level increases in thin-ideal internalization may reflect increases in the magnitude/strength of environmental risk across this period. Replication is needed, particularly with longitudinal designs that assess thin-ideal internalization across key developmental phases. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Thin-Ideal Internalization across Puberty and Pre-Adolescent, Adolescent, and Young Adult Development

PubMed Central

Suisman, Jessica L.; Thompson, J. Kevin; Keel, Pamela K.; Burt, S. Alexandra; Neale, Michael; Boker, Steven; Sisk, Cheryl; Klump, Kelly L.

2014-01-01

Objective Mean-levels of thin-ideal internalization increase during adolescence and pubertal development, but it is unknown whether these phenotypic changes correspond to developmental changes in etiological (i.e., genetic and environmental) risk. Given the limited knowledge on risk for thin-ideal internalization, research is needed to guide the identification of specific types of risk factors during critical developmental periods. The present twin study examined genetic and environmental influences on thin-ideal internalization across adolescent and pubertal development. Method Participants were 1,064 female twins (ages 8–25 years) from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Thin-ideal internalization and pubertal development were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Twin moderation models were used to examine if age and/or pubertal development moderate genetic and environmental influences on thin-ideal internalization. Results Phenotypic analyses indicated significant increases in thin-ideal internalization across age and pubertal development. Twin models suggested no significant differences in etiologic effects across development. Nonshared environmental influences were most important in the etiology of thin-ideal internalization, with genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental accounting for approximately 8%, 15%, and 72%, respectively, of the total variance. Discussion Despite mean-level increases in thin-ideal internalization across development, the relative influence of genetic versus environmental risk did not differ significantly across age or pubertal groups. The majority of variance in thin-ideal internalization was accounted for by environmental factors, suggesting that mean-level increases in thin-ideal internalization may reflect increases in the magnitude/strength of environmental risk across this period. Replication is needed, particularly with longitudinal designs that assess thin-ideal internalization across key developmental phases. PMID:24962440

Using Rasch models to develop and validate an environmental thinking learning progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto-Martell, Erin A.

Environmental understanding is highly relevant in today's global society. Social, economic, and political structures are connected to the state of environmental degradation and exploitation, and disproportionately affect those in poor or urban communities (Brulle & Pellow, 2006; Executive Order No. 12898, 1994). Environmental education must challenge the way we live, and our social and ecological quality of life, with the goal of responsible action. The development of a learning progression in environmental thinking, along with a corresponding assessment, could provide a tool that could be used across environmental education programs to help evaluate and guide programmatic decisions. This study sought to determine if a scale could be constructed that allowed individuals to be ordered along a continuum of environmental thinking. First, I developed the Environmental Thinking Learning Progression, a scale of environmental thinking from novice to advanced, based on the current available research and literature. The scale consisted of four subscales, each measuring a different aspect of environmental thinking: place consciousness, human connection, agency, and science concepts. Second, a measurement instrument was developed, so that the data appropriately fit the model using Rasch analysis. A Rasch analysis of the data placed respondents along a continuum, given the range of item difficulty for each subscale. Across three iterations of instrument revision and data collection, findings indicated that the items were ordered in a hierarchical way that corresponded to the construct of environmental thinking. Comparisons between groups showed that the average score of respondents who had participated in environmental education programs was significantly higher than those who had not. A comparison between males and females showed no significant difference in average measure, however, there were varied significant differences between how racial/ethnic groups performed. Overall, the results suggest that the Environmental Thinking Learning Progression and instrument are useful and accurate tools to measure individuals along a continuum from novice to advanced. This can be helpful for environmental education programs for use in evaluation and program development within a diverse context.

Guaranteeing robustness of structural condition monitoring to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Buren, Kendra; Reilly, Jack; Neal, Kyle; Edwards, Harry; Hemez, François

2017-01-01

Advances in sensor deployment and computational modeling have allowed significant strides to be recently made in the field of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). One widely used SHM strategy is to perform a vibration analysis where a model of the structure's pristine (undamaged) condition is compared with vibration response data collected from the physical structure. Discrepancies between model predictions and monitoring data can be interpreted as structural damage. Unfortunately, multiple sources of uncertainty must also be considered in the analysis, including environmental variability, unknown model functional forms, and unknown values of model parameters. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty can lead to false-positives or false-negatives in the structural condition assessment. To manage the uncertainty, we propose a robust SHM methodology that combines three technologies. A time series algorithm is trained using "baseline" data to predict the vibration response, compare predictions to actual measurements collected on a potentially damaged structure, and calculate a user-defined damage indicator. The second technology handles the uncertainty present in the problem. An analysis of robustness is performed to propagate this uncertainty through the time series algorithm and obtain the corresponding bounds of variation of the damage indicator. The uncertainty description and robustness analysis are both inspired by the theory of info-gap decision-making. Lastly, an appropriate "size" of the uncertainty space is determined through physical experiments performed in laboratory conditions. Our hypothesis is that examining how the uncertainty space changes throughout time might lead to superior diagnostics of structural damage as compared to only monitoring the damage indicator. This methodology is applied to a portal frame structure to assess if the strategy holds promise for robust SHM. (Publication approved for unlimited, public release on October-28-2015, LA-UR-15-28442, unclassified.)

Predictive modeling of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Thorne, Lesley H; Johnston, David W; Urban, Dean L; Tyne, Julian; Bejder, Lars; Baird, Robin W; Yin, Suzanne; Rickards, Susan H; Deakos, Mark H; Mobley, Joseph R; Pack, Adam A; Chapla Hill, Marie

2012-01-01

Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood.

Predictive Modeling of Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Resting Habitat in the Main Hawaiian Islands

PubMed Central

Thorne, Lesley H.; Johnston, David W.; Urban, Dean L.; Tyne, Julian; Bejder, Lars; Baird, Robin W.; Yin, Suzanne; Rickards, Susan H.; Deakos, Mark H.; Mobley, Joseph R.; Pack, Adam A.; Chapla Hill, Marie

2012-01-01

Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood. PMID:22937022

Developing a thermal characteristic index for lithology identification using thermal infrared remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jiali; Liu, Xiangnan; Ding, Chao; Liu, Meiling; Jin, Ming; Li, Dongdong

2017-01-01

In remote sensing petrology fields, studies have mainly concentrated on spectroscopy remote sensing research, and methods to identify minerals and rocks are mainly based on the analysis and enhancement of spectral features. Few studies have reported the application of thermodynamics for lithology identification. This paper aims to establish a thermal characteristic index (TCI) to explore rock thermal behavior responding to defined environmental systems. The study area is located in the northern Qinghai Province, China, on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where mafic-ultramafic rock, quartz-rich rock, alkali granite rock and carbonate rock are well exposed; the pixel samples of these rocks and vegetation were obtained based on relevant indices and geological maps. The scatter plots of TCI indicate that mafic-ultramafic rock and quartz-rich rock can be well extracted from other surface objects when interference from vegetation is lower. On account of the complexity of environmental systems, three periods of TCI were used to construct a three-dimensional scatter plot, named the multi-temporal thermal feature space (MTTFS) model. Then, the Bayes discriminant analysis algorithm was applied to the MTTFS model to extract rocks quantitatively. The classification accuracy of mafic-ultramafic rock is more than 75% in both training data and test data, which suggests TCI can act as a sensitive indicator to distinguish rocks and the MTTFS model can accurately extract mafic-ultramafic rock from other surface objects. We deduce that the use of thermodynamics is promising in lithology identification when an effective index is constructed and an appropriated model is selected.

OptiPhy, a technical-economic optimisation model for improving the management of plant protection practices in agriculture: a decision-support tool for controlling the toxicity risks related to pesticides.

PubMed

Mghirbi, Oussama; LE Grusse, Philippe; Fabre, Jacques; Mandart, Elisabeth; Bord, Jean-Paul

2017-03-01

The health, environmental and socio-economic issues related to the massive use of plant protection products are a concern for all the stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector. These stakeholders, including farmers and territorial actors, have expressed a need for decision-support tools for the management of diffuse pollution related to plant protection practices and their impacts. To meet the needs expressed by the public authorities and the territorial actors for such decision-support tools, we have developed a technical-economic model "OptiPhy" for risk mitigation based on indicators of pesticide toxicity risk to applicator health (IRSA) and to the environment (IRTE), under the constraint of suitable economic outcomes. This technical-economic optimisation model is based on linear programming techniques and offers various scenarios to help the different actors in choosing plant protection products, depending on their different levels of constraints and aspirations. The health and environmental risk indicators can be broken down into sub-indicators so that management can be tailored to the context. This model for technical-economic optimisation and management of plant protection practices can analyse scenarios for the reduction of pesticide-related risks by proposing combinations of substitution PPPs, according to criteria of efficiency, economic performance and vulnerability of the natural environment. The results of the scenarios obtained on real ITKs in different cropping systems show that it is possible to reduce the PPP pressure (TFI) and reduce toxicity risks to applicator health (IRSA) and to the environment (IRTE) by up to approximately 50 %.

ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC HEALTH INDICATORS AT UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has recently published two different indicators reports, America's Children and the Environment (ACE) and the Draft Report on the Environment (see: http://www.epa.gov/indicators/ and http://www.epa.gov/envirohealth/children/). ACE...

Virtual Beach 3: user's guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cyterski, Mike; Brooks, Wesley; Galvin, Mike; Wolfe, Kurt; Carvin, Rebecca; Roddick, Tonia; Fienen, Mike; Corsi, Steve

2014-01-01

Virtual Beach version 3 (VB3) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations at recreational beaches. VB3 is primarily designed for beach managers responsible for making decisions regarding beach closures or the issuance of swimming advisories due to pathogen contamination. However, researchers, scientists, engineers, and students interested in studying relationships between water quality indicators and ambient environmental conditions will find VB3 useful. VB3 reads input data from a text file or Excel document, assists the user in preparing the data for analysis, enables automated model selection using a wide array of possible model evaluation criteria, and provides predictions using a chosen model parameterized with new data. With an integrated mapping component to determine the geographic orientation of the beach, the software can automatically decompose wind/current/wave speed and magnitude information into along-shore and onshore/offshore components for use in subsequent analyses. Data can be examined using simple scatter plots to evaluate relationships between the response and independent variables (IVs). VB3 can produce interaction terms between the primary IVs, and it can also test an array of transformations to maximize the linearity of the relationship The software includes search routines for finding the "best" models from an array of possible choices. Automated censoring of statistical models with highly correlated IVs occurs during the selection process. Models can be constructed either using previously collected data or forecasted environmental information. VB3 has residual diagnostics for regression models, including automated outlier identification and removal using DFFITs or Cook's Distances.

Thermal and hydric aspects of environmental heterogeneity in the pitcher plant mosquito

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kingsolver, J.G.

1979-12-01

In an attempt to define environmental heteogeneity and uncertainty in a meaningful manner, thermal and hydric aspects of the microenvironment of the pitcher plant mosquito (Wyeomyia smithii) were studied. Mechanistic mass and energy balance models were developed to predict surface temperatures in a Sphagnum bog and temperatures and water losses in Sarracenia purpurea pitchers. Field tests indicate that the models predicted surface and pitcher temperatures within 2 to 3/sup 0/C, and hourly and daily water losses from pitchers to within 30%, using only basic meteorological data as inputs. Experiments and observations in a natural population of W. smithii in northernmore » Michigan, USA revealed significant differences in larval developmental rate, voltinism, and larval mortality due to microclimatic effects. The model predicts larval developmental rates and voltinism for each micmicroclimate within 10%. Water loss smulations predict, and field observations confirm, that pitcher desiccation is a function of microclimate and pitcher size, and that rainfall patterns on the order of 5 to 30 d determine desiccation patterns. Identification of the spatial and temporal scale of both the environment and the organismic (population) phenomena in question is crucial to constructing a meaningful definition of environmental heterogeneity. Thermal and hydric components of environmental variation may plan an important role in the maintenance of fitness variation in W. smithii. These results support the hypothesis of Istock (1978) that environmental uncertainty favors mixed life history strategies in Wyeomyia.« less

Applying a health behavior theory to explore the influence of information and experience on arsenic risk representations, policy beliefs, and protective behavior.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J; Baumann, Linda C; Brown, Roger L

2006-04-01

The common sense model (CSM) shows how people process information to construct representations, or mental models, that guide responses to health threats. We applied the CSM to understand how people responded to information about arsenic-contaminated well water. Constructs included external information (arsenic level and information use), experience (perceived water quality and arsenic-related health effects), representations, safety judgments, opinions about policies to mitigate environmental arsenic, and protective behavior. Of 649 surveys mailed to private well users with arsenic levels exceeding the maximum contaminant level, 545 (84%) were analyzed. Structural equation modeling quantified CSM relationships. Both external information and experience had substantial effects on behavior. Participants who identified a water problem were more likely to reduce exposure to arsenic. However, about 60% perceived good water quality and 60% safe water. Participants with higher arsenic levels selected higher personal safety thresholds and 20% reported a lower arsenic level than indicated by their well test. These beliefs would support judgments of safe water. A variety of psychological and contextual factors may explain judgments of safe water when information suggested otherwise. Information use had an indirect effect on policy beliefs through understanding environmental causes of arsenic. People need concrete information about environmental risk at both personal and environmental-systems levels to promote a comprehensive understanding and response. The CSM explained responses to arsenic information and may have application to other environmental risks.

Zebrafish as a Model System for Environmental Health Studies in the Grade 9–12 Classroom

PubMed Central

Hesselbach, Renee; Carvan, Michael John; Goldberg, Barbara; Berg, Craig A.; Petering, David H.

2014-01-01

Abstract Developing zebrafish embryos were used as a model system for high school students to conduct scientific investigations that reveal features of normal development and to test how different environmental toxicants impact the developmental process. The primary goal of the module was to engage students from a wide range of socio-economic backgrounds, with particular focus on underserved inner-city high schools, in inquiry-based learning and hands-on experimentation. In addition, the module served as a platform for both teachers and students to design additional inquiry-based experiments. In this module, students spawned adult zebrafish to generate developing embryos, exposed the embryos to various toxicants, then gathered, and analyzed data obtained from control and experimental embryos. The module provided a flexible, experimental framework for students to test the effects of numerous environmental toxicants, such as ethanol, caffeine, and nicotine, on the development of a model vertebrate organism. Students also observed the effects of dose on experimental outcomes. From observations of the effects of the chemical agents on vertebrate embryos, students drew conclusions on how these chemicals could impact human development and health. Results of pre-tests and post-tests completed by participating students indicate statistically significant changes in awareness of the impact of environmental agents on fish and human beings In addition, the program's evaluator concluded that participation in the module resulted in significant changes in the attitude of students and teachers toward science in general and environmental health in particular. PMID:24941301

Genetic and Environmental Influences of General Cognitive Ability: Is g a valid latent construct?

PubMed Central

Panizzon, Matthew S.; Vuoksimaa, Eero; Spoon, Kelly M.; Jacobson, Kristen C.; Lyons, Michael J.; Franz, Carol E.; Xian, Hong; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Kremen, William S.

2014-01-01

Despite an extensive literature, the “g” construct remains a point of debate. Different models explaining the observed relationships among cognitive tests make distinct assumptions about the role of g in relation to those tests and specific cognitive domains. Surprisingly, these different models and their corresponding assumptions are rarely tested against one another. In addition to the comparison of distinct models, a multivariate application of the twin design offers a unique opportunity to test whether there is support for g as a latent construct with its own genetic and environmental influences, or whether the relationships among cognitive tests are instead driven by independent genetic and environmental factors. Here we tested multiple distinct models of the relationships among cognitive tests utilizing data from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA), a study of middle-aged male twins. Results indicated that a hierarchical (higher-order) model with a latent g phenotype, as well as specific cognitive domains, was best supported by the data. The latent g factor was highly heritable (86%), and accounted for most, but not all, of the genetic effects in specific cognitive domains and elementary cognitive tests. By directly testing multiple competing models of the relationships among cognitive tests in a genetically-informative design, we are able to provide stronger support than in prior studies for g being a valid latent construct. PMID:24791031

Species delimitation in the continental forms of the genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae) integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models.

PubMed

Rivera, Paula C; Di Cola, Valeria; Martínez, Juan J; Gardenal, Cristina N; Chiaraviglio, Margarita

2011-01-01

Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae) presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus-E. assisi, and E. maurus-E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi.

Species Delimitation in the Continental Forms of the Genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae) Integrating Phylogenetics and Environmental Niche Models

PubMed Central

Rivera, Paula C.; Di Cola, Valeria; Martínez, Juan J.; Gardenal, Cristina N.; Chiaraviglio, Margarita

2011-01-01

Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae) presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus - E. assisi, and E. maurus - E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. PMID:21912634

2-D Resistivity Assessment of Subsurface Characterization and its Engineering and Environmental Implications at SiLC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordiana, M. M.; Azwin, I. N.; Saad, Rosli; Jia, Teoh Ying; Anderson, A. B.; Tonnizam, Edy; Taqiuddin Zakaria, Muhamad

2017-04-01

The role of geophysics in Environmental Earth Sciences and Engineering is considered. In the developing era, geophysics has mainly contributed in investigation of new constructions such as tunnels, road, dams and high-rise buildings. This study was carried out to assess the foundation depths around a construction site in the Southern Industrial & Logistics Clusters (SiLC), Nusajaya, Johor using 2-D resistivity method. The 2-D resistivity method was carried out with a view to characterize different subsurface geological and to provide the engineering and environmental geophysical characterization of the study area. Measurements of eight 2-D resistivity profile using Pole-dipole array with 2 m minimum electrode spacing was taken with the use of ABEM Terrameter SAS4000 and ES10-64C selector. The results are presented as inversion model resistivity with the outline of the survey line. The inversion model resistivity from L1-L8 obtained is characterized by resistivity range of 1-8000 ohm-m. This range indicates the occurrence of silt, clay, sandy clay and sand whose ranges are; 10-100 ohm-m, 1-100 ohm-m, 100-800 ohm-m and 100-3000 ohm-m respectively. However, there was a boulder with range of >5000 ohm-m and saturated zone (1-20 ohm-m) which may indicate the weak zones of the study area. The 2-D resistivity method is not intended to replace borings, except in specific cases where information gathered would be sufficient to address the intended engineering and environmental purpose.

Skin microbiota and allergic symptoms associate with exposure to environmental microbes

PubMed Central

Sinkko, Hanna; Hielm-Björkman, Anna; Tiira, Katriina; Laatikainen, Tiina; Mäkeläinen, Sanna; Kaukonen, Maria; Uusitalo, Liisa; Hanski, Ilkka; Lohi, Hannes; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2018-01-01

A rural environment and farming lifestyle are known to provide protection against allergic diseases. This protective effect is expected to be mediated via exposure to environmental microbes that are needed to support a normal immune tolerance. However, the triangle of interactions between environmental microbes, host microbiota, and immune system remains poorly understood. Here, we have studied these interactions using a canine model (two breeds, n = 169), providing an intermediate approach between complex human studies and artificial mouse model studies. We show that the skin microbiota reflects both the living environment and the lifestyle of a dog. Remarkably, the prevalence of spontaneous allergies is also associated with residential environment and lifestyle, such that allergies are most common among urban dogs living in single-person families without other animal contacts, and least common among rural dogs having opposite lifestyle features. Thus, we show that living environment and lifestyle concurrently associate with skin microbiota and allergies, suggesting that these factors might be causally related. Moreover, microbes commonly found on human skin tend to dominate the urban canine skin microbiota, while environmental microbes are rich in the rural canine skin microbiota. This in turn suggests that skin microbiota is a feasible indicator of exposure to environmental microbes. As short-term exposure to environmental microbes via exercise is not associated with allergies, we conclude that prominent and sustained exposure to environmental microbiotas should be promoted by urban planning and lifestyle changes to support health of urban populations. PMID:29686089

Skin microbiota and allergic symptoms associate with exposure to environmental microbes.

PubMed

Lehtimäki, Jenni; Sinkko, Hanna; Hielm-Björkman, Anna; Salmela, Elina; Tiira, Katriina; Laatikainen, Tiina; Mäkeläinen, Sanna; Kaukonen, Maria; Uusitalo, Liisa; Hanski, Ilkka; Lohi, Hannes; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2018-05-08

A rural environment and farming lifestyle are known to provide protection against allergic diseases. This protective effect is expected to be mediated via exposure to environmental microbes that are needed to support a normal immune tolerance. However, the triangle of interactions between environmental microbes, host microbiota, and immune system remains poorly understood. Here, we have studied these interactions using a canine model (two breeds, n = 169), providing an intermediate approach between complex human studies and artificial mouse model studies. We show that the skin microbiota reflects both the living environment and the lifestyle of a dog. Remarkably, the prevalence of spontaneous allergies is also associated with residential environment and lifestyle, such that allergies are most common among urban dogs living in single-person families without other animal contacts, and least common among rural dogs having opposite lifestyle features. Thus, we show that living environment and lifestyle concurrently associate with skin microbiota and allergies, suggesting that these factors might be causally related. Moreover, microbes commonly found on human skin tend to dominate the urban canine skin microbiota, while environmental microbes are rich in the rural canine skin microbiota. This in turn suggests that skin microbiota is a feasible indicator of exposure to environmental microbes. As short-term exposure to environmental microbes via exercise is not associated with allergies, we conclude that prominent and sustained exposure to environmental microbiotas should be promoted by urban planning and lifestyle changes to support health of urban populations. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Environmental justice and regional inequality in southern California: implications for future research.

PubMed Central

Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Pastor, Manuel; Porras, Carlos; Sadd, James

2002-01-01

Environmental justice offers researchers new insights into the juncture of social inequality and public health and provides a framework for policy discussions on the impact of discrimination on the environmental health of diverse communities in the United States. Yet, causally linking the presence of potentially hazardous facilities or environmental pollution with adverse health effects is difficult, particularly in situations in which diverse populations are exposed to complex chemical mixtures. A community-academic research collaborative in southern California sought to address some of these methodological challenges by conducting environmental justice research that makes use of recent advances in air emissions inventories and air exposure modeling data. Results from several of our studies indicate that communities of color bear a disproportionate burden in the location of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities and Toxic Release Inventory facilities. Longitudinal analysis further suggests that facility siting in communities of color, not market-based "minority move-in," accounts for these disparities. The collaborative also investigated the health risk implications of outdoor air toxics exposures from mobile and stationary sources and found that race plays an explanatory role in predicting cancer risk distributions among populations in the region, even after controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic indicators. Although it is unclear whether study results from southern California can be meaningfully generalized to other regions in the United States, they do have implications for approaching future research in the realm of environmental justice. The authors propose a political economy and social inequality framework to guide future research that could better elucidate the origins of environmental inequality and reasons for its persistence. PMID:11929723

Tehran Air Pollutants Prediction Based on Random Forest Feature Selection Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsoddini, A.; Aboodi, M. R.; Karami, J.

2017-09-01

Air pollution as one of the most serious forms of environmental pollutions poses huge threat to human life. Air pollution leads to environmental instability, and has harmful and undesirable effects on the environment. Modern prediction methods of the pollutant concentration are able to improve decision making and provide appropriate solutions. This study examines the performance of the Random Forest feature selection in combination with multiple-linear regression and Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks methods, in order to achieve an efficient model to estimate carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and PM2.5 contents in the air. The results indicated that Artificial Neural Networks fed by the attributes selected by Random Forest feature selection method performed more accurate than other models for the modeling of all pollutants. The estimation accuracy of sulfur dioxide emissions was lower than the other air contaminants whereas the nitrogen dioxide was predicted more accurate than the other pollutants.

Low Emissions and Delay Optimization for an Isolated Signalized Intersection Based on Vehicular Trajectories

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

A traditional traffic signal control system is established based on vehicular delay, queue length, saturation and other indicators. However, due to the increasing severity of urban environmental pollution issues and the development of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly social philosophy, the development of low-carbon and energy-efficient urban transport is required. This paper first defines vehicular trajectories and the calculation of vehicular emissions based on VSP. Next, a regression analysis method is used to quantify the relationship between vehicular emissions and delay, and a traffic signal control model is established to reduce emissions and delay using the enumeration method combined with saturation constraints. Finally, one typical intersection of Changchun is selected to verify the model proposed in this paper; its performance efficiency is also compared using simulations in VISSIM. The results of this study show that the proposed model can significantly reduce vehicle delay and traffic emissions simultaneously. PMID:26720095

Low Emissions and Delay Optimization for an Isolated Signalized Intersection Based on Vehicular Trajectories.

PubMed

Lin, Ciyun; Gong, Bowen; Qu, Xin

2015-01-01

A traditional traffic signal control system is established based on vehicular delay, queue length, saturation and other indicators. However, due to the increasing severity of urban environmental pollution issues and the development of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly social philosophy, the development of low-carbon and energy-efficient urban transport is required. This paper first defines vehicular trajectories and the calculation of vehicular emissions based on VSP. Next, a regression analysis method is used to quantify the relationship between vehicular emissions and delay, and a traffic signal control model is established to reduce emissions and delay using the enumeration method combined with saturation constraints. Finally, one typical intersection of Changchun is selected to verify the model proposed in this paper; its performance efficiency is also compared using simulations in VISSIM. The results of this study show that the proposed model can significantly reduce vehicle delay and traffic emissions simultaneously.

Analysis of regional total factor energy efficiency in China under environmental constraints: based on undesirable-minds and DEA window model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuying; Li, Deshan; Li, Shuangqiang; Jiang, Hanyu; Shen, Yuqing

2017-06-01

With China’s entrance into the new economy, the improvement of energy efficiency has become an important indicator to measure the quality of ecological civilization construction and economic development. According to the panel data of Chinese regions in 1996-2014, the nearest distance to the efficient frontier of Undesirable-MinDS Xeon model and DEA window model have been used to calculate the total factor energy efficiency of China’s regions. Study found that: Under environmental constraints, China’s total factor energy efficiency has increased after the first drop in the overall 1996-2014, and then increases again. And the difference between the regions is very large, showing a characteristic of “the east is the highest, the west is lower, and lowest is in the central” finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

Technological change, depletion and environmental policy in the offshore oil and gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Managi, Shunsuke

Technological change is central to maintaining standards of living in modern economies with finite resources and increasingly stringent environmental goals. Successful environmental policies can contribute to efficiency by encouraging, rather than inhibiting, technological innovation. However, little research to date has focused on the design and implementation of environmental regulations that encourage technological progress, or in insuring productivity improvements in the face of depletion of natural resources and increasing stringency of environmental regulations. This study models and measures productivity change, with an application to offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico using Data Envelopment Analysis. This is an important application because energy resources are central to sustaining our economy. The net effects of technological progress and depletion on productivity of offshore oil and gas production are measured using a unique field-level set of data of production from all wells in the Gulf of Mexico over the time period from 1946--1998. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that technological progress has mitigated depletion effects over the study period, but the pattern differs from the conventional wisdom for nonrenewable resource industries. The Porter Hypothesis was recast, and revised version was tested. The Porter Hypothesis states that well designed environmental regulations can potentially contribute to productive efficiency in the long run by encouraging innovation. The Porter Hypothesis was recast to include market and nonmarket outputs. Our results support the recast version of Porter hypothesis, which examine productivity of joint production of market and environmental outputs. But we find no evidence for the standard formulation of the Porter hypothesis, that increased stringency of environmental regulation lead to increased productivity of market outputs and therefore increased industry profits. The model is used to forecast market and environmental outputs under alternative policy scenarios. Reliable baseline forecast and response to different policy actions of production and pollution are critical to the formation of sound energy and environmental policy. Forecast of production and pollution until year 2050 are generated from the model. Detailed policy scenarios provide quantitative assessments of potential benefits that indicate the significance of potential benefits of technological change and well-designed environmental policy.

The influence of environmental management and animal shelters in vector control of Culicoides (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) in northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Bandeira, Maria da C A; Brito, Gustavo A; da Penha, Adriane; Santos, Ciro L C; Rebêlo, José M M

2017-06-01

We investigated whether biting midges in peridomestic environments are affected by environmental management practices and the presence of domestic animals. We used CDC light traps to collect midges in 112 residences across 24 locations along tourism routes of Maranhão, Brazil. The collection areas were characterized as follows: i) peridomestic area with domestic animals and without management (dirty); ii) peridomestic with domestic animals and management (clean); iii) peridomestic without animals and with management (clean); iv) peridomestic without animals and without management (dirty). The first two treatments had higher biting midge species richness and abundance, respectively. Generalized linear models indicated a positive correlation between the presence of domestic animals and midge abundance, with an approximate four-fold increase in Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) abundance in peridomestic areas with animals. The same model showed that domestic animals have no influence on richness. Environmental management does not appear to influence species richness or abundance of biting midges. © 2017 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Genetic and environmental influences on restrained eating behavior

PubMed Central

Schur, Ellen; Noonan, Carolyn; Polivy, Janet; Goldberg, Jack; Buchwald, Dedra

2009-01-01

Objective We examined the relative contributions of genetic and environmental influences to restrained eating. Methods Restrained eating was assessed by the Restraint Scale in a survey mailed to all twins enrolled in the University of Washington Twin Registry. We used structural equation modeling to estimate genetic and non-genetic contributions to restrained eating. Results 1,196 monozygotic, 456 same-sex dizygotic twins, and 447 opposite-sex twins were included in analyses. Restraint Scale scores were more closely correlated in monozygotic twins (rmale = 0.55, rfemale = 0.55) than in same-sex dizygotic twins (rmale = 0.31, rfemale = 0.19). Based on structural equation modeling, the estimated heritability for restrained eating, adjusted for BMI and sex, was 43% (95% confidence interval 35–50%). There was little evidence for common environmental effects. Conclusion These results indicate an inherited component to restrained eating. Genes could influence restrained eating directly or through inherited mediators such as personality factors or tendencies to gain weight. PMID:19658171

Development of Composite Indices to Measure the Adoption of Pro-Environmental Behaviours across Canadian Provinces

PubMed Central

Canuel, Magalie; Abdous, Belkacem; Bélanger, Diane; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-01-01

Objective The adoption of pro-environmental behaviours reduces anthropogenic environmental impacts and subsequent human health effects. This study developed composite indices measuring adoption of pro-environmental behaviours at the household level in Canada. Methods The 2007 Households and the Environment Survey conducted by Statistics Canada collected data on Canadian environmental behaviours at households' level. A subset of 55 retained questions from this survey was analyzed by Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to develop the index. Weights attributed by MCA were used to compute scores for each Canadian province as well as for socio-demographic strata. Scores were classified into four categories reflecting different levels of adoption of pro-environmental behaviours. Results Two indices were finally created: one based on 23 questions related to behaviours done inside the dwelling and a second based on 16 questions measuring behaviours done outside of the dwelling. British Columbia, Quebec, Prince-Edward-Island and Nova-Scotia appeared in one of the two top categories of adoption of pro-environmental behaviours for both indices. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland-and-Labrador were classified in one of the two last categories of pro-environmental behaviours adoption for both indices. Households with a higher income, educational attainment, or greater number of persons adopted more indoor pro-environmental behaviours, while on the outdoor index, they adopted fewer such behaviours. Households with low-income fared better on the adoption of outdoors pro-environmental behaviours. Conclusion MCA was successfully applied in creating Indoor and Outdoor composite Indices of pro-environmental behaviours. The Indices cover a good range of environmental themes and the analysis could be applied to similar surveys worldwide (as baseline weights) enabling temporal trend comparison for recurring themes. Much more than voluntary measures, the study shows that existing regulations, dwelling type, households composition and income as well as climate are the major factors determining pro-environmental behaviours. PMID:25013929

Life-cycle thinking and the LEED rating system: global perspective on building energy use and environmental impacts.

PubMed

Al-Ghamdi, Sami G; Bilec, Melissa M

2015-04-07

This research investigates the relationship between energy use, geographic location, life cycle environmental impacts, and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). The researchers studied worldwide variations in building energy use and associated life cycle impacts in relation to the LEED rating systems. A Building Information Modeling (BIM) of a reference 43,000 ft(2) office building was developed and situated in 400 locations worldwide while making relevant changes to the energy model to meet reference codes, such as ASHRAE 90.1. Then life cycle environmental and human health impacts from the buildings' energy consumption were calculated. The results revealed considerable variations between sites in the U.S. and international locations (ranging from 394 ton CO2 equiv to 911 ton CO2 equiv, respectively). The variations indicate that location specific results, when paired with life cycle assessment, can be an effective means to achieve a better understanding of possible adverse environmental impacts as a result of building energy consumption in the context of green building rating systems. Looking at these factors in combination and using a systems approach may allow rating systems like LEED to continue to drive market transformation toward sustainable development, while taking into consideration both energy sources and building efficiency.

Causes of individual differences in adolescent optimism: a study in Dutch twins and their siblings.

PubMed

Mavioğlu, Rezan Nehir; Boomsma, Dorret I; Bartels, Meike

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the degree to which genetic and environmental influences affect variation in adolescent optimism. Optimism (3 items and 6 items approach) and pessimism were assessed by the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) in 5,187 adolescent twins and 999 of their non-twin siblings from the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR). Males reported significantly higher optimism scores than females, while females score higher on pessimism. Genetic structural equation modeling revealed that about one-third of the variance in optimism and pessimism was due to additive genetic effects, with the remaining variance being explained by non-shared environmental effects. A bivariate correlated factor model revealed two dimensions with a genetic correlation of -.57 (CI -.67, -.47), while the non-shared environmental correlation was estimated to be -.21 (CI -.25, -.16). Neither an effect of shared environment, non-additive genetic influences, nor quantitative sex differences was found for both dimensions. This result indicates that individual differences in adolescent optimism are mainly accounted for by non-shared environmental factors. These environmental factors do not contribute to the similarity of family members, but to differences between them. Familial resemblance in optimism and pessimism assessed in adolescents is fully accounted for by genetic overlap between family members.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Relative importance of management, meteorological and environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in a temperate climate zone.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Ducheyne, E; Vercruysse, J; Claerebout, E; Hendrickx, G; Charlier, J

2011-02-01

Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic and environmental variation, management factors affect the spatial distribution of F. hepatica, and should be included in future spatial distribution models. Copyright © 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aroclor-1254, a developmental neurotoxicant, alters energy metabolism-and intracellular signaling-associated protein networks in rat cerebellum and hippocampus

EPA Science Inventory

The vast literature on the mode of action of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) indicates that PCBs are a unique model for understanding the mechanisms of toxicity of environmental mixtures of persistent chemicals. PCBs have been shown to adversely affect psychomotor function and l...

WebGL Visualisation of 3D Environmental Models Based on Finnish Open Geospatial Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krooks, A.; Kahkonen, J.; Lehto, L.; Latvala, P.; Karjalainen, M.; Honkavaara, E.

2014-08-01

Recent developments in spatial data infrastructures have enabled real time GIS analysis and visualization using open input data sources and service interfaces. In this study we present a new concept where metric point clouds derived from national open airborne laser scanning (ALS) and photogrammetric image data are processed, analyzed, finally visualised a through open service interfaces to produce user-driven analysis products from targeted areas. The concept is demonstrated in three environmental applications: assessment of forest storm damages, assessment of volumetric changes in open pit mine and 3D city model visualization. One of the main objectives was to study the usability and requirements of national level photogrammetric imagery in these applications. The results demonstrated that user driven 3D geospatial analyses were possible with the proposed approach and current technology, for instance, the landowner could assess the amount of fallen trees within his property borders after a storm easily using any web browser. On the other hand, our study indicated that there are still many uncertainties especially due to the insufficient standardization of photogrammetric products and processes and their quality indicators.

Differential effects of p,p'-DDE on testis and liver mitochondria: implications for reproductive toxicology.

PubMed

Mota, Paula C; Cordeiro, Marília; Pereira, Susana P; Oliveira, Paulo J; Moreno, António J; Ramalho-Santos, João

2011-01-01

The release of environmental contaminants can contribute to impaired male fertility. The bioenergetics of isolated liver mitochondria have been used as a toxicological indicator, an inexpensive first line model to screen possible effects of several substances. Here we report the effects of 2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-1,1-dichloro-ethylene (DDE) on the bioenergetical parameters of testicular mitochondria. A significant decrease in repolarization potential (after a phosphorylative cycle), state 3 respiration and uncoupled respiration, with a concomitant increase in lag phase was found, demonstrating a decrease in mitochondrial function. Importantly, there was also a clear increase in maximum potential in DDE-treated testis mitochondria, which was not mirrored by more commonly used liver mitochondria. Indeed, comparative studies showed that testis and liver mitochondria have strikingly different sensitivities and patterns of response to DDE, indicating that testis mitochondria should be used as a primary toxicological model for a proper evaluation of putative effects of environmental toxicants on the bioenergetics of spermatogenesis and male fertility. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic and social dimensions of environmental behavior: balancing conservation and development in Bhutan.

PubMed

Brooks, Jeremy S

2010-12-01

One of the primary approaches to environmental conservation emphasizes economic development. This conservation-and-development approach often ignores how development affects sociocultural characteristics that may motivate environmental behaviors (actions that actively benefit or limit one's negative impacts on the environment). Evolutionary anthropologists espouse a theoretical perspective that supports the conservation-and-development approach. Others believe sociocultural factors are the foundation of environmental behavior and worry that development will erode the values and norms that may shape such behavior. My research assistants and I surveyed 170 individuals from eight villages in two communities in Bhutan to explore whether economic (wealth, market integration) or social (religious behaviors, environmental values, social capital) factors are better indicators of environmental behavior. I used multilevel modeling to analyze use of fuelwood, use of agricultural chemicals, and tree planting, and to determine whether social norms were associated with these behaviors. Although economic factors were more often associated with these behaviors than social factors, local conditions and control variables were the best indicators of behaviors. Furthermore, economic factors were not always associated with positive environmental outcomes. Instead, farmers attempted to make the best economic decisions given their circumstances rather than seeking to conserve resources. Although religion was not a strong predictor of any of the behaviors I examined, I found evidence that the understanding of Buddhist philosophy is growing, which suggests that social factors may play a more prominent role as Bhutan's development progresses. My results highlight the need for conservation planners to be aware of local conditions when planning and implementing policies aimed at motivating environmental behaviors and that economic and social motivations for conservation may not be mutually exclusive. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Predicting pre-Columbian anthropogenic soils in Amazonia

PubMed Central

McMichael, C. H.; Palace, M. W.; Bush, M. B.; Braswell, B.; Hagen, S.; Neves, E. G.; Silman, M. R.; Tamanaha, E. K.; Czarnecki, C.

2014-01-01

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km2 or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance. PMID:24403329

Predicting pre-Columbian anthropogenic soils in Amazonia.

PubMed

McMichael, C H; Palace, M W; Bush, M B; Braswell, B; Hagen, S; Neves, E G; Silman, M R; Tamanaha, E K; Czarnecki, C

2014-02-22

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km(2) or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance.

Has the "Equal Environments" assumption been tested in twin studies?

PubMed

Eaves, Lindon; Foley, Debra; Silberg, Judy

2003-12-01

A recurring criticism of the twin method for quantifying genetic and environmental components of human differences is the necessity of the so-called "equal environments assumption" (EEA) (i.e., that monozygotic and dizygotic twins experience equally correlated environments). It has been proposed to test the EEA by stratifying twin correlations by indices of the amount of shared environment. However, relevant environments may also be influenced by genetic differences. We present a model for the role of genetic factors in niche selection by twins that may account for variation in indices of the shared twin environment (e.g., contact between members of twin pairs). Simulations reveal that stratification of twin correlations by amount of contact can yield spurious evidence of large shared environmental effects in some strata and even give false indications of genotype x environment interaction. The stratification approach to testing the equal environments assumption may be misleading and the results of such tests may actually be consistent with a simpler theory of the role of genetic factors in niche selection.

Environmental barriers and social participation in individuals with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Tsai, I-Hsuan; Graves, Daniel E; Chan, Wenyaw; Darkoh, Charles; Lee, Meei-Shyuan; Pompeii, Lisa A

2017-02-01

The study aimed to examine the relationship between environmental barriers and social participation among individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). Individuals admitted to regional centers of the Model Spinal Cord Injury System in the United States due to traumatic SCI were interviewed and included in the National Spinal Cord Injury Database. This cross-sectional study applied a secondary analysis with a mixed effect model on the data from 3,162 individuals who received interviews from 2000 through 2005. Five dimensions of environmental barriers were estimated using the short form of the Craig Hospital Inventory of Environmental Factors-Short Form (CHIEF-SF). Social participation was measured with the short form of the Craig Handicap Assessment and Reporting Technique-Short Form (CHART-SF) and their employment status. Subscales of environmental barriers were negatively associated with the social participation measures. Each 1 point increase in CHIEF-SF total score (indicated greater environmental barriers) was associated with a 0.82 point reduction in CHART-SF total score (95% CI: -1.07, -0.57) (decreased social participation) and 4% reduction in the odds of being employed. Among the 5 CHIEF-SF dimensions, assistance barriers exhibited the strongest negative association with CHART-SF social participation score when compared to other dimensions, while work/school dimension demonstrated the weakest association with CHART-SF. Environmental barriers are negatively associated with social participation in the SCI population. Working toward eliminating environmental barriers, especially assistance/service barriers, may help enhance social participation for people with SCI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Environmental Barriers and Social Participation in Individuals With Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Tsai, I-Hsuan; Graves, Daniel E.; Chan, Wenyaw; Darkoh, Charles; Lee, Meei-Shyuan; Pompeii, Lisa A.

2018-01-01

Objective The study aimed to examine the relationship between environmental barriers and social participation among individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). Method Individuals admitted to regional centers of the Model Spinal Cord Injury System in the United States due to traumatic SCI were interviewed and included in the National Spinal Cord Injury Database. This cross-sectional study applied a secondary analysis with a mixed effect model on the data from 3,162 individuals who received interviews from 2000 through 2005. Five dimensions of environmental barriers were estimated using the short form of the Craig Hospital Inventory of Environmental Factors—Short Form (CHIEF-SF). Social participation was measured with the short form of the Craig Handicap Assessment and Reporting Technique—Short Form (CHART-SF) and their employment status. Results Subscales of environmental barriers were negatively associated with the social participation measures. Each 1 point increase in CHIEF-SF total score (indicated greater environmental barriers) was associated with a 0.82 point reduction in CHART-SF total score (95% CI: −1.07, −0.57) (decreased social participation) and 4% reduction in the odds of being employed. Among the 5 CHIEF-SF dimensions, assistance barriers exhibited the strongest negative association with CHART-SF social participation score when compared to other dimensions, while work/school dimension demonstrated the weakest association with CHART-SF. Conclusions Environmental barriers are negatively associated with social participation in the SCI population. Working toward eliminating environmental barriers, especially assistance/service barriers, may help enhance social participation for people with SCI. PMID:28045281

A theory and model of conflict detection in air traffic control: incorporating environmental constraints.

PubMed

Loft, Shayne; Bolland, Scott; Humphreys, Michael S; Neal, Andrew

2009-06-01

A performance theory for conflict detection in air traffic control is presented that specifies how controllers adapt decisions to compensate for environmental constraints. This theory is then used as a framework for a model that can fit controller intervention decisions. The performance theory proposes that controllers apply safety margins to ensure separation between aircraft. These safety margins are formed through experience and reflect the biasing of decisions to favor safety over accuracy, as well as expectations regarding uncertainty in aircraft trajectory. In 2 experiments, controllers indicated whether they would intervene to ensure separation between pairs of aircraft. The model closely predicted the probability of controller intervention across the geometry of problems and as a function of controller experience. When controller safety margins were manipulated via task instructions, the parameters of the model changed in the predicted direction. The strength of the model over existing and alternative models is that it better captures the uncertainty and decision biases involved in the process of conflict detection. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

Modelling the breeding of Aedes Albopictus species in an urban area in Pulau Pinang using polynomial regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Saad, Ahmad Ramli; Sulaiman, Husna Mahirah; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Polynomial regression is used to model a curvilinear relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables. It is a form of a least squares linear regression model that predicts a single response variable by decomposing the predictor variables into an nth order polynomial. In a curvilinear relationship, each curve has a number of extreme points equal to the highest order term in the polynomial. A quadratic model will have either a single maximum or minimum, whereas a cubic model has both a relative maximum and a minimum. This study used quadratic modeling techniques to analyze the effects of environmental factors: temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall distribution on the breeding of Aedes albopictus, a type of Aedes mosquito. Data were collected at an urban area in south-west Penang from September 2010 until January 2011. The results indicated that the breeding of Aedes albopictus in the urban area is influenced by all three environmental characteristics. The number of mosquito eggs is estimated to reach a maximum value at a medium temperature, a medium relative humidity and a high rainfall distribution.

Risk Zone Modelling and Early Warning System for Visceral Leishmaniasis Kala-Azar Disease in Bihar, India Using Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyaram, A.; Kesari, S.; Bajpai, A.; Bhunia, G. S.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

2012-07-01

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) commonly known as Kala-azar is one of the most neglected tropical disease affecting approximately 200 million poorest populations 'at risk in 109 districts of three endemic countries namely Bangladesh, India and Nepal at different levels. This tropical disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania donovani and transmitted by female Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies. The analysis of disease dynamics indicate the periodicity at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scale which forms the basis for development of advanced early warning system. Study area of highly endemic Vaishali district, Bihar, India has been taken for model development. A Systematic study of geo-environmental parameters derived from satellite data in conjunction with ground intelligence enabled modelling of infectious disease and risk villages. High resolution Indian satellites data of IRS LISS IV (multi-spectral) and Cartosat-1 (Pan) have been used for studying environmentally risk parameters viz. peri-domestic vegetation, dwelling condition, wetland ecosystem, cropping pattern, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), detailed land use etc towards risk assessment. Univariate analysis of the relationship between vector density and various land cover categories and climatic variables suggested that all the variables are significantly correlated. Using the significantly correlated variables with vector density, a seasonal multivariate regression model has been carried out incorporating geo-environmental parameters, climate variables and seasonal time series disease parameters. Linear and non-linear models have been applied for periodicity and interannual temporal scale to predict Man-hour-density (MHD) and 'out-of-fit' data set used for validating the model with reasonable accuracy. To improve the MHD predictive approach, fuzzy model has also been incorporated in GIS environment combining spatial geo-environmental and climatic variables using fuzzy membership logic. Based on the perceived importance of the geoenvironmental parameters assigned by epidemiology expert, combined fuzzy membership has been calculated. The combined fuzzy membership indicate the predictive measure of vector density in each village. A γ factor has been introduced to have increasing effect in the higher side and decreasing effect in the lower side which facilitated for prioritisation of the villages. This approach is not only to predict vector density but also to prioritise the villages for effective control measures. A software package for modelling the risk villages integrating multivariate regression and fuzzy membership analysis models have been developed to estimate MHD (vector density) as part of the early warning system.

Temporal and spatial variation in pharmaceutical concentrations in an urban river system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Emily E.; Carter, Laura J.; Kolpin, Dana W.; Thomas-Oates, Jane; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

2018-01-01

Many studies have quantified pharmaceuticals in the environment, few however, have incorporated detailed temporal and spatial variability due to associated costs in terms of time and materials. Here, we target 33 physico-chemically diverse pharmaceuticals in a spatiotemporal exposure study into the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the wastewater system and the Rivers Ouse and Foss (two diverse river systems) in the city of York, UK. Removal rates in two of the WWTPs sampled (a conventional activated sludge (CAS) and trickling filter plant) ranged from not eliminated (carbamazepine) to >99% (paracetamol). Data comparisons indicate that pharmaceutical exposures in river systems are highly variable regionally, in part due to variability in prescribing practices, hydrology, wastewater management, and urbanisation and that select annual median pharmaceutical concentrations observed in this study were higher than those previously observed in the European Union and Asia thus far. Significant spatial variability was found between all sites in both river systems, while seasonal variability was significant for 86% and 50% of compounds in the River Foss and Ouse, respectively. Seasonal variations in flow, in-stream attenuation, usage and septic effluent releases are suspected drivers behind some of the observed temporal exposure variability. When the data were used to evaluate a simple environmental exposure model for pharmaceuticals, mean ratios of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs), obtained using the model, to measured environmental concentrations (MECs) were 0.51 and 0.04 for the River Foss and River Ouse, respectively. Such PEC/MEC ratios indicate that the model underestimates actual concentrations in both river systems, but to a much greater extent in the larger River Ouse.

The disappearing Environmental Kuznets Curve: a study of water quality in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB).

PubMed

Wong, Yoon Loong Andrew; Lewis, Lynne

2013-12-15

The literature is flush with articles focused on estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for various pollutants and various locations. Most studies have utilized air pollution variables; far fewer have utilized water quality variables, all with mixed results. We suspect that mixed evidence of the EKC stems from model and error specification. We analyze annual data for four water quality indicators, three of them previously unstudied - total phosphorus (TOTP), dissolved oxygen (DO), ammonium (NH4) and nitrites (NO2) - from the Lower Mekong Basin region to determine whether an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is evident for a transboundary river in a developing country and whether that curve is dependent on model specification and/or pollutant. We build upon previous studies by correcting for the problems of heteroskedasticity, serial correlation and cross-sectional dependence. Unlike multi-country EKC studies, we mitigate for potential distortion from pooling data across geographically heterogeneous locations by analyzing data drawn from proximate locations within a specific international river basin in Southeast Asia. We also attempt to identify vital socioeconomic determinants of water pollution by including a broad list of explanatory variables alongside the income term. Finally, we attempt to shed light on the pollution-income relationship as it pertains to trans-boundary water pollution by examining data from an international river system. We do not find consistent evidence of an EKC for any of the 4 pollutant indicators in this study, but find the results are entirely dependent on model and error specification as well as pollutant. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic inmore » the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.« less

Communicating Ecological Indicators to Decision Makers and the Public

Treesearch

A. Schiller; Carolyn Hunsaker; M.A. Kane; A.K. Wolfe; V.H. Dale; G.W. Suter; C.S. Russell; G. Pion; N.H. Jensen; V.C. Konar

2001-01-01

Ecological assessments and monitoring programs often rely on indicators to evaluate environmental conditions. Such indicators are frequently developed by scientists, expressed in technical language, and target aspects of the environment that scientists consider useful. Yet setting environmental policy priorities and making environmental decisions requires both...

Assessing the relative importance of local and regional processes on the survival of a threatened salmon population.

PubMed

Miller, Jessica A; Teel, David J; Peterson, William T; Baptista, Antonio M

2014-01-01

Research on regulatory mechanisms in biological populations often focuses on environmental covariates. An integrated approach that combines environmental indices with organismal-level information can provide additional insight on regulatory mechanisms. Survival of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) is consistently low whereas some adjacent populations with similar life histories experience greater survival. It is not known if populations with differential survival respond similarly during early marine residence, a critical period in the life history. Ocean collections, genetic stock identification, and otolith analyses were combined to evaluate the growth-mortality and match-mismatch hypotheses during early marine residence of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon. Interannual variation in juvenile attributes, including size at marine entry and marine growth rate, was compared with estimates of survival and physical and biological metrics. Multiple linear regression and multi-model inference were used to evaluate the relative importance of biological and physical metrics in explaining interannual variation in survival. There was relatively weak support for the match-mismatch hypothesis and stronger evidence for the growth-mortality hypothesis. Marine growth and size at capture were strongly, positively related to survival, a finding similar to spring Chinook salmon from the Mid-Upper Columbia River. In hindcast models, basin-scale indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and biological indices (juvenile salmon catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and a copepod community index (CCI)) accounted for substantial and similar portions of variation in survival for juvenile emigration years 1998-2008 (R2>0.70). However, in forecast models for emigration years 2009-2011, there was an increasing discrepancy between predictions based on the PDO (50-448% of observed value) compared with those based on the NPGO (68-212%) or biological indices (CPUE and CCI: 83-172%). Overall, the PDO index was remarkably informative in earlier years but other basin-scale and biological indices provided more accurate indications of survival in recent years.

Evaluation of Watershed-Scale Simulations of In-Stream Pesticide Concentrations from Off-Target Spray Drift.

PubMed

Winchell, Michael F; Pai, Naresh; Brayden, Benjamin H; Stone, Chris; Whatling, Paul; Hanzas, John P; Stryker, Jody J

2018-01-01

The estimation of pesticide concentrations in surface water bodies is a critical component of the environmental risk assessment process required by regulatory agencies in North America, the European Union, and elsewhere. Pesticide transport to surface waters via deposition from off-field spray drift can be an important route of potential contamination. The spatial orientation of treated fields relative to receiving water bodies make prediction of off-target pesticide spray drift deposition and resulting aquatic estimated environmental concentrations (EECs) challenging at the watershed scale. The variability in wind conditions further complicates the simulation of the environmental processes leading to pesticide spray drift contributions to surface water. This study investigates the use of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for predicting concentrations of malathion (O,O-deimethyl thiophosphate of diethyl mercaptosuccinate) in a flowing water body when exposure is a result of off-target spray drift, and assesses the model's performance using a parameterization typical of a screening-level regulatory assessment. Six SWAT parameterizations, each including incrementally more site-specific data, are then evaluated to quantify changes in model performance. Results indicate that the SWAT model is an appropriate tool for simulating watershed scale concentrations of pesticides resulting from off-target spray drift deposition. The model predictions are significantly more accurate when the inputs and assumptions accurately reflect application practices and environmental conditions. Inclusion of detailed wind data had the most significant impact on improving model-predicted EECs in comparison to observed concentrations. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The gravitational wave background from massive black hole binaries in Illustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Blecha, Laura; Hernquist, Lars; Sesana, Alberto; Taylor, Stephen R.

2017-11-01

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) around the world are using the incredible consistency of millisecond pulsars to measure low-frequency gravitational waves from (super)massive black hole (MBH) binaries. We use comprehensive MBH merger models based on cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to predict the spectrum of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB). We use real time-of-arrival specifications from the European, NANOGrav, Parkes, and International PTA (IPTA) to calculate realistic times to detection of the GWB across a wide range of model parameters. In addition to exploring the parameter space of environmental hardening processes (in particular: stellar scattering efficiencies), we have expanded our models to include eccentric binary evolution which can have a strong effect on the GWB spectrum. Our models show that strong stellar scattering and high characteristic eccentricities enhance the GWB strain amplitude near the PTA-sensitive `sweet-spot' (near the frequency f = 1 yr-1), slightly improving detection prospects in these cases. While the GWB amplitude is degenerate between cosmological and environmental parameters, the location of a spectral turnover at low frequencies (f ≲ 0.1 yr-1) is strongly indicative of environmental coupling. At high frequencies (f ≳ 1 yr-1), the GWB spectral index can be used to infer the number density of sources and possibly their eccentricity distribution. Even with merger models that use pessimistic environmental and eccentricity parameters, if the current rate of PTA expansion continues, we find that the IPTA is highly likely to make a detection within about 10 yr.

Sleep Disturbance from Road Traffic, Railways, Airplanes and from Total Environmental Noise Levels in Montreal.

PubMed

Perron, Stéphane; Plante, Céline; Ragettli, Martina S; Kaiser, David J; Goudreau, Sophie; Smargiassi, Audrey

2016-08-11

The objective of our study was to measure the impact of transportation-related noise and total environmental noise on sleep disturbance for the residents of Montreal, Canada. A telephone-based survey on noise-related sleep disturbance among 4336 persons aged 18 years and over was conducted. LNight for each study participant was estimated using a land use regression (LUR) model. Distance of the respondent's residence to the nearest transportation noise source was also used as an indicator of noise exposure. The proportion of the population whose sleep was disturbed by outdoor environmental noise in the past 4 weeks was 12.4%. The proportion of those affected by road traffic, airplane and railway noise was 4.2%, 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. We observed an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those exposed to both rail and road noise when compared for those exposed to road only. We did not observe an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those that were both exposed to road and planes when compared to those exposed to road or planes only. We developed regression models to assess the marginal proportion of sleep disturbance as a function of estimated LNight and distance to transportation noise sources. In our models, sleep disturbance increased with proximity to transportation noise sources (railway, airplane and road traffic) and with increasing LNight values. Our study provides a quantitative estimate of the association between total environmental noise levels estimated using an LUR model and sleep disturbance from transportation noise.

Environmental Dysfunctions, Childhood Maltreatment and Women's Intimate Partner Violence Victimization.

PubMed

Cascio, Maria Lo; Guarnaccia, Cinzia; Infurna, Maria Rita; Mancuso, Laura; Parroco, Anna Maria; Giannone, Francesca

2017-06-01

Childhood maltreatment is considered a crucial explanatory variable for intimate partner violence (IPV) in adulthood. However, a developmental multifactorial model for the etiology of IPV is not shared by researchers yet. This study has investigated the role of a wide range of childhood maltreatments and family and social dysfunctions in predicting IPV; furthermore, it tests a model where childhood maltreatment mediates the relationship between environmental dysfunctions and IPV. The sample included 78 women: IPV (38) and non-IPV (40). The Italian version of the Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse (CECA) Interview was used to assess the presence of adverse childhood experiences. The Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2) and the IPV History Interview were used to assess IPV in the last year and lifetime, respectively. The results of a multivariate logistic regression model have indicated that only sexual (odds ratio [OR] = 4.24) and psychological (OR = 3.45) abuse significantly predicted IPV; with regard to association between IPV and environmental dysfunctions, only poor social support (OR = 8.91) significantly predicted IPV. The results of a mediation model have shown that childhood psychological and sexual abuse, in association with each other, partially mediate the relationship between poor social support and IPV. The findings from this study pinpoint poor social support as an important predictor of IPV so far neglected in the literature on the developmental antecedents of IPV. They also support the theoretical assumption according to which dysfunctional environmental variables and types of childhood maltreatment interacting with each other may influence development outcomes.

Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose.

PubMed

Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine

2017-12-01

The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

Holistic model-based monitoring of the human health status in an urban environment system: pilot study in Verona city, Italy.

PubMed

Tarocco, S; Amoruso, I; Caravello, G

2011-06-01

In recent decades the global health paradigm gained an increasing systemic characterization. The ecosystem health theory states that a healthy ecosystem, whether natural or artificial, significantly contributes to the good health status of the human population. The present study describes an interdisciplinary monitoring model that retrospectively analyzes the intersection between the urban environment and citizens. The model analyzes both the biophysical and the anthropic subsystems through the application of landscape ecology and environmental quality indexes along with human health indicators. Particularly, ecological quality of landscape pattern, atmospheric pollution, outdoor noise levels and local health indicators were assessed. Verona municipality was chosen as study area to test the preliminary efficiency of the model. Territory was split into two superimposed layers of land units, which were further geo-referentiated with Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. Interdependence of any of the analyzed traits was further investigated with Fisher exact test. Landscape composition was assessed and an Average Ecological Quality (AEQ) score assigned to each land unit. A direct proportionality emerged for concentrations of considered air pollutants and traffic levels: a spatial model for the atmospheric pollution was drawn. A map depicting the distribution of traffic-related noise levels was also drawn. From chosen indicators, a quality class score was assigned to every minor and major land unit. Age-standardised rates about hospitalizations for the municipal population and specific rates for the over-65s/1000 inhabitants were calculated. Quality class assignement for each health indicator was graphically rendered. After direct standardisation of rates for the population sample, data were compared with two reference populations, the Regional population and the Local Socio-sanitary Unit (ULSS20) population. Standardised hospitalization rates for the whole municipal population always resulted lower than the ULSS20 rates, except for auditory pathologies. It was notable that rates of hospitalizations for cancerous diseases for Verona municipal population were four times and two times lower than the ULSS20 and the Regional population ones, respectively. Contingency table were made for the health main indicator (specific rates for the over-65s/1000 inhabitants) and the environmental quality key factors of landscape ecological quality, outdoor noise level and air pollution. H0 of independence was rejected for respiratory pathologies and air pollution and for the triad cardiocirculatory pathologies, air pollution and landscape ecological quality at (a = 0.05). Fisher exact test confirmed the non-independence of cardiocirculatory diseases and biophysical environment and the analogous association for respiratory pathologies when comparison was made with global environmental quality index. The first testing of the model suggests some possible elements of implementation and integration which could further enhance it. Among them, the subjective investigation of the health status assumes a primary role. On the whole the monitoring model seems to effectively represent the real complexity of the urban environment systems and should be regarded as an important contribution to the new way of health research.

Prioritizing environmental justice and equality: diesel emissions in southern California.

PubMed

Marshall, Julian D; Swor, Kathryn R; Nguyen, Nam P

2014-04-01

Existing environmental policies aim to reduce emissions but lack standards for addressing environmental justice. Environmental justice research documents disparities in exposure to air pollution; however, little guidance currently exists on how to make improvements or on how specific emission-reduction scenarios would improve or deteriorate environmental justice conditions. Here, we quantify how emission reductions from specific sources would change various measures of environmental equality and justice. We evaluate potential emission reductions for fine diesel particulate matter (DPM) in Southern California for five sources: on-road mobile, off-road mobile, ships, trains, and stationary. Our approach employs state-of-the-science dispersion and exposure models. We compare four environmental goals: impact, efficiency, equality, and justice. Results indicate potential trade-offs among those goals. For example, reductions in train emissions produce the greatest improvements in terms of efficiency, equality, and justice, whereas off-road mobile source reductions can have the greatest total impact. Reductions in on-road emissions produce improvements in impact, equality, and justice, whereas emission reductions from ships would widen existing population inequalities. Results are similar for complex versus simplified exposure analyses. The approach employed here could usefully be applied elsewhere to evaluate opportunities for improving environmental equality and justice in other locations.

Driving forces behind the Chinese public's demand for improved environmental safety.

PubMed

Wen, Ting; Wang, Jigan; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-12-15

Over the past decades, the public demand for improved environmental safety keeps increasing in China. This study aims to assess the driving forces behind the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety using a provincial and multi-year (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) panel data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The potential driving forces investigated included population size, income levels, degrees of urbanization, and educational levels. Results show that population size and educational level are positively (P<0.01) associated with public demand for improved environmental safety. No significant impact on demand was found due to the degree of urbanization. For the impact due to income level, an inverted U-shaped curve effect with the turning point of ~140,000 CNY GDP per capita is indicated. Since per capita GDP of 2015 in China was approximately 50,000 CNY and far from the turning point, the public demand for improved environmental safety will continue rising in the near future. To meet the increasing public demand for improved environmental safety, proactive and risk prevention based environmental management systems coupled with effective environmental risk communication should be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Water Footprint as an indicator of environmental sustainability in water use at the river basin level.

PubMed

Pellicer-Martínez, Francisco; Martínez-Paz, José Miguel

2016-11-15

One of the main challenges in water management is to determine how the current water use can condition its availability to future generations and hence its sustainability. This study proposes the use of the Water Footprint (WF) indicator to assess the environmental sustainability in water resources management at the river basin level. The current study presents the methodology developed and applies it to a case study. The WF is a relatively new indicator that measures the total volume of freshwater that is used as a production factor. Its application is ever growing in the evaluation of water use in production processes. The calculation of the WF involves water resources (blue), precipitation stored in the soil (green) and pollution (grey). It provides a comprehensive assessment of the environmental sustainability of water use in a river basin. The methodology is based upon the simulation of the anthropised water cycle, which is conducted by combining a hydrological model and a decision support system. The methodology allows the assessment of the environmental sustainability of water management at different levels, and/or ex-ante analysis of how the decisions made in water planning process affect sustainability. The sustainability study was carried out in the Segura River Basin (SRB) in South-eastern Spain. The SRB is among the most complex basins in Europe, given its special peculiarities: competition for the use, overexploitation of aquifers, pollution, alternative sources, among others. The results indicate that blue water use is not sustainable due to the generalised overexploitation of aquifers. They also reveal that surface water pollution, which is not sustainable, is mainly caused by phosphate concentrations. The assessment of future scenarios reveals that these problems will worsen if no additional measures are implemented, and therefore the water management in the SRB is environmentally unsustainable in both the short- and medium-term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physiological community ecology: variation in metabolic activity of ecologically important rocky intertidal invertebrates along environmental gradients.

PubMed

Dahlhoff, Elizabeth P; Stillman, Jonathon H; Menge, Bruce A

2002-08-01

Rocky intertidal invertebrates live in heterogeneous habitats characterized by steep gradients in wave activity, tidal flux, temperature, food quality and food availability. These environmental factors impact metabolic activity via changes in energy input and stress-induced alteration of energetic demands. For keystone species, small environmentally induced shifts in metabolic activity may lead to disproportionately large impacts on community structure via changes in growth or survival of these key species. Here we use biochemical indicators to assess how natural differences in wave exposure, temperature and food availability may affect metabolic activity of mussels, barnacles, whelks and sea stars living at rocky intertidal sites with different physical and oceanographic characteristics. We show that oxygen consumption rate is correlated with the activity of key metabolic enzymes (e.g., citrate synthase and malate dehydrogenase) for some intertidal species, and concentrations of these enzymes in certain tissues are lower for starved individuals than for those that are well fed. We also show that the ratio of RNA to DNA (an index of protein synthetic capacity) is highly variable in nature and correlates with short-term changes in food availability. We also observed striking patterns in enzyme activity and RNA/DNA in nature, which are related to differences in rocky intertidal community structure. Differences among species and habitats are most pronounced in summer and are linked to high nearshore productivity at sites favored by suspension feeders and to exposure to stressful low-tide air temperatures in areas of low wave splash. These studies illustrate the great promise of using biochemical indicators to test ecological models, which predict changes in community structure along environmental gradients. Our results also suggest that biochemical indices must be carefully validated with laboratory studies, so that the indicator selected is likely to respond to the environmental variables of interest.

Multi-objective optimization integrated with life cycle assessment for rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Huang, Youyi; Ye, Quanliang; Zhang, Wenlong; Meng, Fangang; Zhang, Shanxue

2018-03-01

The major limitation of optimization models applied previously for rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems is the systematic evaluation of environmental and human health impacts across all the lifecycle stages. This study integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) into a multi-objective optimization model to optimize the construction areas of green rooftops, porous pavements and green lands in Beijing of China, considering the trade-offs among 24 h-interval RWH volume (QR), stormwater runoff volume control ratio (R), economic cost (EC), and environmental impacts (EI). Eleven life cycle impact indicators were assessed with a functional unit of 10,000 m2 of RWH construction areas. The LCA results showed that green lands performed the smallest lifecycle impacts of all assessment indicators, in contrast, porous pavements showed the largest impact values except Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) elements. Based on the standardization results, ADP fossil was chosen as the representative indicator for the calculation of EI objective in multi-objective optimization model due to its largest value in all RWH systems lifecycle. The optimization results for QR, R, EC and EI were 238.80 million m3, 78.5%, 66.68 billion RMB Yuan, and 1.05E + 16 MJ, respectively. After the construction of optimal RWH system, 14.7% of annual domestic water consumption and 78.5% of maximum daily rainfall would be supplied and controlled in Beijing, respectively, which would make a great contribution to reduce the stress of water scarcity and water logging problems. Green lands have been the first choice for RWH in Beijing according to the capacity of rainwater harvesting and less environmental and human impacts. Porous pavements played a good role in water logging alleviation (R for 67.5%), however, did not show a large construction result in this study due to the huge ADP fossil across the lifecycle. Sensitivity analysis revealed the daily maximum precipitation to be key factor for the robustness of the results for three RWH systems construction in this study.

Goal specificity: a proxy measure for improvements in environmental outcomes in collaborative governance.

PubMed

Biddle, Jennifer C; Koontz, Tomas M

2014-12-01

Collaborative governance critics continually call for evidence to support its prevalent use. As is often the case in environmental policy, environmental outcomes occur at a rate incompatible with political agendas. In addition, a multitude of possibly confounding variables makes it difficult to correlate collaborative governance processes with environmental outcomes. The findings of this study offer empirical evidence that collaborative processes have a measurable, beneficial effect on environmental outcomes. Through the use of a unique paired-waterbody design, our dataset reduced the potential for confounding variables to impact our environmental outcome measurements. The results of a path analysis indicate that the output of setting specific pollutant reduction goals is significantly related to watershed partnerships' level of attainment of their environmental improvement goals. The action of setting specific goals (e.g. percentage of load reductions in pollutant levels) is fostered by sustained participation from partnership members throughout the lifecycle of the collaborative. In addition, this study demonstrates the utility of logic modeling for environmental planning and management, and suggests that the process of setting specific pollutant reduction goals is a useful proxy measure for reporting progress towards improvements in environmental outcomes when long-term environmental data are not available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cuticular features as indicators of environmental pollution

Treesearch

G. K. Sharma

1976-01-01

Several leaf cuticular features such as stomatal frequency, stomatal size, trichome length, type, and frequency, and subsidiary cell complex respond to environmental pollution in different ways and hence can be used as indicators of environmental pollution in an area. Several modifications in cuticular features under polluted environments seem to indicate ecotypic or...