Sample records for modelling short-term dynamic

  1. An Empirical Validation of a Dynamic Systems Model of Interaction: Do Children of Different Sociometric Statuses Differ in Their Dyadic Play?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steenbeek, Henderien; van Geert, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Studying short-term dynamic processes and change mechanisms in interaction yields important knowledge that contributes to understanding long-term social development of children. In order to get a grip on this short-term dynamics of interaction processes, the authors made a dynamic systems model of dyadic interaction of children during one play…

  2. Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Van Vuren, Dirk H

    2009-04-01

    Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

  3. The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

    2011-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2008-12-01

    Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width without discharge variability does not induce a significant difference in the predicted long-term incision law and scaling of relief with incision rate at steady-state. We conclude that the simple stream power law models currently in use are false, and that details of short-term fluvial dynamics must make their way into long-term evolution models to avoid oversimplifying the coupled dynamics between erosion, tectonics and climate.

  5. Degradation modeling of high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells using dual time scale simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, E.; Maximini, M.; Bauschulte, A.; vom Schloß, J.; Hermanns, R. T. E.

    2015-02-01

    HT-PEM fuel cells suffer from performance losses due to degradation effects. Therefore, the durability of HT-PEM is currently an important factor of research and development. In this paper a novel approach is presented for an integrated short term and long term simulation of HT-PEM accelerated lifetime testing. The physical phenomena of short term and long term effects are commonly modeled separately due to the different time scales. However, in accelerated lifetime testing, long term degradation effects have a crucial impact on the short term dynamics. Our approach addresses this problem by applying a novel method for dual time scale simulation. A transient system simulation is performed for an open voltage cycle test on a HT-PEM fuel cell for a physical time of 35 days. The analysis describes the system dynamics by numerical electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Furthermore, a performance assessment is performed in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the approach. The presented approach reduces the simulation time by approximately 73% compared to conventional simulation approach without losing too much accuracy. The approach promises a comprehensive perspective considering short term dynamic behavior and long term degradation effects.

  6. Nonlinear Dynamical Modes as a Basis for Short-Term Forecast of Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Seleznev, A.; Loskutov, E.

    2017-12-01

    We study abilities of data-driven stochastic models constructed by nonlinear dynamical decomposition of spatially distributed data to quantitative (short-term) forecast of climate characteristics. We compare two data processing techniques: (i) widely used empirical orthogonal function approach, and (ii) nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) framework [1,2]. We also make comparison of two kinds of the prognostic models: (i) traditional autoregression (linear) model and (ii) model in the form of random ("stochastic") nonlinear dynamical system [3]. We apply all combinations of the above-mentioned data mining techniques and kinds of models to short-term forecasts of climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) data. We use NOAA_ERSST_V4 dataset (monthly SST with space resolution 20 × 20) covering the tropical belt and starting from the year 1960. We demonstrate that NDM-based nonlinear model shows better prediction skill versus EOF-based linear and nonlinear models. Finally we discuss capability of NDM-based nonlinear model for long-term (decadal) prediction of climate variability. [1] D. Mukhin, A. Gavrilov, E. Loskutov , A.Feigin, J.Kurths, 2015: Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability, Scientific Reports, rep. 5, 15510; doi: 10.1038/srep15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J., 2016: Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. [3] Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, A. Feigin, 2012: Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.

  7. A context-based theory of recency and contiguity in free recall

    PubMed Central

    Sederberg, Per B.; Howard, Marc W.; Kahana, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    We present a new model of free recall based on Howard and Kahana’s (2002) temporal context model and Usher and McClelland’s (2001) leaky-accumulator decision model. In this model, contextual drift gives rise to both short-term and long-term recency effects, and contextual retrieval gives rise to short-term and long-term contiguity effects, Recall decisions are controlled by a race between competitive leaky-accumulators. The model captures the dynamics of immediate, delayed, and continual distractor free recall, demonstrating that dissociations between short- and long-term recency can naturally arise from a model that uses an internal contextual state as the sole cue for retrieval across time scales. PMID:18954208

  8. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Predicting the Development of Analytical and Creative Abilities in Upper Elementary Grades

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gubbels, Joyce; Segers, Eliane; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2017-01-01

    In some models, intelligence has been described as a multidimensional construct comprising both analytical and creative abilities. In addition, intelligence is considered to be dynamic rather than static. A structural equation model was used to examine the predictive role of cognitive (visual short-term memory, verbal short-term memory, selective…

  10. Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, D. S.

    2001-05-01

    Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

  11. Patterns formation in ferrofluids and solid dissolutions using stochastic models with dissipative dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, Marco A.; Fernández-Cervantes, Irving; Agustín-Serrano, Ricardo; Anzo, Andrés; Sampedro, Mercedes P.

    2016-08-01

    A functional with interactions short-range and long-range low coarse-grained approximation is proposed. This functional satisfies models with dissipative dynamics A, B and the stochastic Swift-Hohenberg equation. Furthermore, terms associated with multiplicative noise source are added in these models. These models are solved numerically using the method known as fast Fourier transform. Results of the spatio-temporal dynamic show similarity with respect to patterns behaviour in ferrofluids phases subject to external fields (magnetic, electric and temperature), as well as with the nucleation and growth phenomena present in some solid dissolutions. As a result of the multiplicative noise effect over the dynamic, some microstructures formed by changing solid phase and composed by binary alloys of Pb-Sn, Fe-C and Cu-Ni, as well as a NiAl-Cr(Mo) eutectic composite material. The model A for active-particles with a non-potential term in form of quadratic gradient explain the formation of nanostructured particles of silver phosphate. With these models is shown that the underlying mechanisms in the patterns formation in all these systems depends of: (a) dissipative dynamics; (b) the short-range and long-range interactions and (c) the appropiate combination of quadratic and multiplicative noise terms.

  12. Novel model coupling approach for resilience analysis of coastal plant communities.

    PubMed

    Schibalski, Anett; Körner, Katrin; Maier, Martin; Jeltsch, Florian; Schröder, Boris

    2018-06-04

    Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, e.g., plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes like regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  13. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  14. Short-term synaptic plasticity and heterogeneity in neural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mejias, J. F.; Kappen, H. J.; Longtin, A.; Torres, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent results on neural dynamics and information processing which arise when considering several biophysical factors of interest, in particular, short-term synaptic plasticity and neural heterogeneity. The inclusion of short-term synaptic plasticity leads to enhanced long-term memory capacities, a higher robustness of memory to noise, and irregularity in the duration of the so-called up cortical states. On the other hand, considering some level of neural heterogeneity in neuron models allows neural systems to optimize information transmission in rate coding and temporal coding, two strategies commonly used by neurons to codify information in many brain areas. In all these studies, analytical approximations can be made to explain the underlying dynamics of these neural systems.

  15. Extrapolation of dynamic load behaviour on hydroelectric turbine blades with cyclostationary modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poirier, Marc; Gagnon, Martin; Tahan, Antoine; Coutu, André; Chamberland-lauzon, Joël

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present the application of cyclostationary modelling for the extrapolation of short stationary load strain samples measured in situ on hydraulic turbine blades. Long periods of measurements allow for a wide range of fluctuations representative of long-term reality to be considered. However, sampling over short periods limits the dynamic strain fluctuations available for analysis. The purpose of the technique presented here is therefore to generate a representative signal containing proper long term characteristics and expected spectrum starting with a much shorter signal period. The final objective is to obtain a strain history that can be used to estimate long-term fatigue behaviour of hydroelectric turbine runners.

  16. Parametric and non-parametric modeling of short-term synaptic plasticity. Part I: computational study

    PubMed Central

    Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Berger, Theodore W.

    2009-01-01

    Parametric and non-parametric modeling methods are combined to study the short-term plasticity (STP) of synapses in the central nervous system (CNS). The nonlinear dynamics of STP are modeled by means: (1) previously proposed parametric models based on mechanistic hypotheses and/or specific dynamical processes, and (2) non-parametric models (in the form of Volterra kernels) that transforms the presynaptic signals into postsynaptic signals. In order to synergistically use the two approaches, we estimate the Volterra kernels of the parametric models of STP for four types of synapses using synthetic broadband input–output data. Results show that the non-parametric models accurately and efficiently replicate the input–output transformations of the parametric models. Volterra kernels provide a general and quantitative representation of the STP. PMID:18506609

  17. Continuous Timescale Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network for Human Intent Understanding

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Zhibin; Moirangthem, Dennis S.; Lee, Minho

    2017-01-01

    Understanding of human intention by observing a series of human actions has been a challenging task. In order to do so, we need to analyze longer sequences of human actions related with intentions and extract the context from the dynamic features. The multiple timescales recurrent neural network (MTRNN) model, which is believed to be a kind of solution, is a useful tool for recording and regenerating a continuous signal for dynamic tasks. However, the conventional MTRNN suffers from the vanishing gradient problem which renders it impossible to be used for longer sequence understanding. To address this problem, we propose a new model named Continuous Timescale Long-Short Term Memory (CTLSTM) in which we inherit the multiple timescales concept into the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) that addresses the vanishing gradient problem. We design an additional recurrent connection in the LSTM cell outputs to produce a time-delay in order to capture the slow context. Our experiments show that the proposed model exhibits better context modeling ability and captures the dynamic features on multiple large dataset classification tasks. The results illustrate that the multiple timescales concept enhances the ability of our model to handle longer sequences related with human intentions and hence proving to be more suitable for complex tasks, such as intention recognition. PMID:28878646

  18. Mathematical Model Of Nerve/Muscle Interaction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hannaford, Blake

    1990-01-01

    Phasic Excitation/Activation (PEA) mathematical model simulates short-term nonlinear dynamics of activation and control of muscle by nerve. Includes electronic and mechanical elements. Is homeomorphic at level of its three major building blocks, which represent motoneuron, dynamics of activation of muscle, and mechanics of muscle.

  19. Repeatability Modeling for Wind-Tunnel Measurements: Results for Three Langley Facilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hemsch, Michael J.; Houlden, Heather P.

    2014-01-01

    Data from extensive check standard tests of seven measurement processes in three NASA Langley Research Center wind tunnels are statistically analyzed to test a simple model previously presented in 2000 for characterizing short-term, within-test and across-test repeatability. The analysis is intended to support process improvement and development of uncertainty models for the measurements. The analysis suggests that the repeatability can be estimated adequately as a function of only the test section dynamic pressure over a two-orders- of-magnitude dynamic pressure range. As expected for low instrument loading, short-term coefficient repeatability is determined by the resolution of the instrument alone (air off). However, as previously pointed out, for the highest dynamic pressure range the coefficient repeatability appears to be independent of dynamic pressure, thus presenting a lower floor for the standard deviation for all three time frames. The simple repeatability model is shown to be adequate for all of the cases presented and for all three time frames.

  20. Predicting isoproturon long-term mineralization from short-term experiment: Can this be a suitable approach?

    PubMed

    Wang, Fang; Dörfler, Ulrike; Jiang, Xin; Schroll, Reiner

    2016-02-01

    A worldwide used pesticide - isoproturon (IPU) - was selected to test whether short-term experiments can be used to predict long-term mineralization of IPU in soil. IPU-mineralization was measured for 39 and 265 days in four different agricultural soils with a low mineralization dynamic. Additionally, in one soil IPU dissipation, formation and dissipation of metabolites, formation of non-extractable residues (NER) and (14)C-microbial biomass from (14)C-IPU were monitored for 39 and 265 days. The data from short-term and long-term experiments were used for model fitting. The long-term dynamics of IPU mineralization were considerably overestimated by the short-term experiments in two soils with neutral pH, while in two other soils with low pH and lower mineralization, the long-term mineralization of IPU could be sufficiently predicted. Additional investigations in one of the soils with neutral pH showed that dissipation of IPU and metabolites could be correctly predicted by the short-term experiment. However, the formation of NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were remarkably overestimated by the short-term experiment. Further, it could be shown that the released NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were the main contributors of (14)CO2 formation at later incubation stages. Taken together, our results indicate that in soils with neutral pH short-term experiments were inadequate to predict the long-term mineralization of IPU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes.

    PubMed

    Gibson, E J; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, A A; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

    2018-01-01

    Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors.

  2. Nonlinear modeling of chaotic time series: Theory and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casdagli, M.; Eubank, S.; Farmer, J. D.; Gibson, J.; Desjardins, D.; Hunter, N.; Theiler, J.

    We review recent developments in the modeling and prediction of nonlinear time series. In some cases, apparent randomness in time series may be due to chaotic behavior of a nonlinear but deterministic system. In such cases, it is possible to exploit the determinism to make short term forecasts that are much more accurate than one could make from a linear stochastic model. This is done by first reconstructing a state space, and then using nonlinear function approximation methods to create a dynamical model. Nonlinear models are valuable not only as short term forecasters, but also as diagnostic tools for identifying and quantifying low-dimensional chaotic behavior. During the past few years, methods for nonlinear modeling have developed rapidly, and have already led to several applications where nonlinear models motivated by chaotic dynamics provide superior predictions to linear models. These applications include prediction of fluid flows, sunspots, mechanical vibrations, ice ages, measles epidemics, and human speech.

  3. 77 FR 74592 - Supplemental Determination for Renewable Fuels Produced Under the Final RFS2 Program From Grain...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-17

    ... biodiesel and renewable diesel. Regulated categories include: NAICS \\1\\ Examples of potentially regulated... and Research Institute international models as maintained by the Center for Agricultural and Rural... in the model results. For example, since FASOM is a long-term dynamic optimization model, short-term...

  4. The impact of short term synaptic depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics on neuronal variability

    PubMed Central

    Reich, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Neuronal variability plays a central role in neural coding and impacts the dynamics of neuronal networks. Unreliability of synaptic transmission is a major source of neural variability: synaptic neurotransmitter vesicles are released probabilistically in response to presynaptic action potentials and are recovered stochastically in time. The dynamics of this process of vesicle release and recovery interacts with variability in the arrival times of presynaptic spikes to shape the variability of the postsynaptic response. We use continuous time Markov chain methods to analyze a model of short term synaptic depression with stochastic vesicle dynamics coupled with three different models of presynaptic spiking: one model in which the timing of presynaptic action potentials are modeled as a Poisson process, one in which action potentials occur more regularly than a Poisson process (sub-Poisson) and one in which action potentials occur more irregularly (super-Poisson). We use this analysis to investigate how variability in a presynaptic spike train is transformed by short term depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics to determine the variability of the postsynaptic response. We find that sub-Poisson presynaptic spiking increases the average rate at which vesicles are released, that the number of vesicles released over a time window is more variable for smaller time windows than larger time windows and that fast presynaptic spiking gives rise to Poisson-like variability of the postsynaptic response even when presynaptic spike times are non-Poisson. Our results complement and extend previously reported theoretical results and provide possible explanations for some trends observed in recorded data. PMID:23354693

  5. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales.

    PubMed

    Mi, Yuanyuan; Lin, Xiaohan; Wu, Si

    2016-01-01

    Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequency adaptation (SFA) at the single-neuron level, and short-term facilitation (STF) and depression (STD) at the synapse level. These dynamical features typically cover a broad range of time scales and exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what is the computational benefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics. In this study, we propose that the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictory computations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractor neural network (CANN) as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing time constants in its dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity, adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, and hence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar time constants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network is able to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed light on the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realize diverse cognitive functions.

  6. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-08-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett-Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network.

  7. Long and short-term atmospheric radiation analyses based on coupled measurements at high altitude remote stations and extensive air shower modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubert, G.; Federico, C. A.; Pazianotto, M. T.; Gonzales, O. L.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper are described the ACROPOL and OPD high-altitude stations devoted to characterize the atmospheric radiation fields. The ACROPOL platform, located at the summit of the Pic du Midi in the French Pyrenees at 2885 m above sea level, exploits since May 2011 some scientific equipment, including a BSS neutron spectrometer, detectors based on semiconductor and scintillators. In the framework of a IEAv and ONERA collaboration, a second neutron spectrometer was simultaneously exploited since February 2015 at the summit of the Pico dos Dias in Brazil at 1864 m above the sea level. The both high station platforms allow for investigating the long period dynamics to analyze the spectral variation of cosmic-ray- induced neutron and effects of local and seasonal changes, but also the short term dynamics during solar flare events. This paper presents long and short-term analyses, including measurement and modeling investigations considering the both high altitude stations data. The modeling approach, based on ATMORAD computational platform, was used to link the both station measurements.

  8. Modeling the action-potential-sensitive nonlinear-optical response of myelinated nerve fibers and short-term memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shneider, M. N.; Voronin, A. A.; Zheltikov, A. M.

    2011-11-01

    The Goldman-Albus treatment of the action-potential dynamics is combined with a phenomenological description of molecular hyperpolarizabilities into a closed-form model of the action-potential-sensitive second-harmonic response of myelinated nerve fibers with nodes of Ranvier. This response is shown to be sensitive to nerve demyelination, thus enabling an optical diagnosis of various demyelinating diseases, including multiple sclerosis. The model is applied to examine the nonlinear-optical response of a three-neuron reverberating circuit—the basic element of short-term memory.

  9. Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Gibson, EJ; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, AA; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

    2018-01-01

    Background Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Results The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Conclusion Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors. PMID:29563820

  10. Short-term depression and transient memory in sensory cortex.

    PubMed

    Gillary, Grant; Heydt, Rüdiger von der; Niebur, Ernst

    2017-12-01

    Persistent neuronal activity is usually studied in the context of short-term memory localized in central cortical areas. Recent studies show that early sensory areas also can have persistent representations of stimuli which emerge quickly (over tens of milliseconds) and decay slowly (over seconds). Traditional positive feedback models cannot explain sensory persistence for at least two reasons: (i) They show attractor dynamics, with transient perturbations resulting in a quasi-permanent change of system state, whereas sensory systems return to the original state after a transient. (ii) As we show, those positive feedback models which decay to baseline lose their persistence when their recurrent connections are subject to short-term depression, a common property of excitatory connections in early sensory areas. Dual time constant network behavior has also been implemented by nonlinear afferents producing a large transient input followed by much smaller steady state input. We show that such networks require unphysiologically large onset transients to produce the rise and decay observed in sensory areas. Our study explores how memory and persistence can be implemented in another model class, derivative feedback networks. We show that these networks can operate with two vastly different time courses, changing their state quickly when new information is coming in but retaining it for a long time, and that these capabilities are robust to short-term depression. Specifically, derivative feedback networks with short-term depression that acts differentially on positive and negative feedback projections are capable of dynamically changing their time constant, thus allowing fast onset and slow decay of responses without requiring unrealistically large input transients.

  11. Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

  12. Further development of a global pollution model for CO, CH4, and CH2 O

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, L. K.

    1975-01-01

    Global tropospheric pollution models are developed that describe the transport and the physical and chemical processes occurring between the principal sources and sinks of CH4 and CO. Results are given of long term static chemical kinetic computer simulations and preliminary short term dynamic simulations.

  13. Dynamized Preparations in Cell Culture

    PubMed Central

    Sunila, Ellanzhiyil Surendran; Preethi, Korengath Chandran; Kuttan, Girija

    2009-01-01

    Although reports on the efficacy of homeopathic medicines in animal models are limited, there are even fewer reports on the in vitro action of these dynamized preparations. We have evaluated the cytotoxic activity of 30C and 200C potencies of ten dynamized medicines against Dalton's Lymphoma Ascites, Ehrlich's Ascites Carcinoma, lung fibroblast (L929) and Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines and compared activity with their mother tinctures during short-term and long-term cell culture. The effect of dynamized medicines to induce apoptosis was also evaluated and we studied how dynamized medicines affected genes expressed during apoptosis. Mother tinctures as well as some dynamized medicines showed significant cytotoxicity to cells during short and long-term incubation. Potentiated alcohol control did not produce any cytotoxicity at concentrations studied. The dynamized medicines were found to inhibit CHO cell colony formation and thymidine uptake in L929 cells and those of Thuja, Hydrastis and Carcinosinum were found to induce apoptosis in DLA cells. Moreover, dynamized Carcinosinum was found to induce the expression of p53 while dynamized Thuja produced characteristic laddering pattern in agarose gel electrophoresis of DNA. These results indicate that dynamized medicines possess cytotoxic as well as apoptosis-inducing properties. PMID:18955237

  14. Nonlinear modeling of chaotic time series: Theory and applications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Casdagli, M.; Eubank, S.; Farmer, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    We review recent developments in the modeling and prediction of nonlinear time series. In some cases apparent randomness in time series may be due to chaotic behavior of a nonlinear but deterministic system. In such cases it is possible to exploit the determinism to make short term forecasts that are much more accurate than one could make from a linear stochastic model. This is done by first reconstructing a state space, and then using nonlinear function approximation methods to create a dynamical model. Nonlinear models are valuable not only as short term forecasters, but also as diagnostic tools for identifyingmore » and quantifying low-dimensional chaotic behavior. During the past few years methods for nonlinear modeling have developed rapidly, and have already led to several applications where nonlinear models motivated by chaotic dynamics provide superior predictions to linear models. These applications include prediction of fluid flows, sunspots, mechanical vibrations, ice ages, measles epidemics and human speech. 162 refs., 13 figs.« less

  15. Classic flea-borne transmission does not drive plague epizootics in prairie dogs.

    PubMed

    Webb, Colleen T; Brooks, Christopher P; Gage, Kenneth L; Antolin, Michael F

    2006-04-18

    We lack a clear understanding of the enzootic maintenance of the bacterium (Yersinia pestis) that causes plague and the sporadic epizootics that occur in its natural rodent hosts. A key to elucidating these epidemiological dynamics is determining the dominant transmission routes of plague. Plague can be acquired from the bites of infectious fleas (which is generally considered to occur via a blocked flea vector), inhalation of infectious respiratory droplets, or contact with a short-term infectious reservoir. We present results from a plague modeling approach that includes transmission from all three sources of infection simultaneously and uses sensitivity analysis to determine their relative importance. Our model is completely parameterized by using data from the literature and our own field studies of plague in the black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus). Results of the model are qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with independent data from our field sites. Although infectious fleas might be an important source of infection and transmission via blocked fleas is a dominant paradigm in the literature, our model clearly predicts that this form of transmission cannot drive epizootics in prairie dogs. Rather, a short-term reservoir is required for epizootic dynamics. Several short-term reservoirs have the potential to affect the prairie dog system. Our model predictions of the residence time of the short-term reservoir suggest that other small mammals, infectious prairie dog carcasses, fleas that transmit plague without blockage of the digestive tract, or some combination of these three are the most likely of the candidate infectious reservoirs.

  16. MODELING MERCURY DYNAMICS IN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH WASP7: CHARACTERIZING PROCESSES CONTROLLING SHORT AND LONG TERM RESPONSE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mercury transport through stream ecosystems is driven by a complicated set of transport and transformation reactions operating on a variety of scales in the atmosphere, landscape, surface water, and biota. Riverine systems typically have short residence times and can experience l...

  17. Critical neural networks with short- and long-term plasticity.

    PubMed

    Michiels van Kessenich, L; Luković, M; de Arcangelis, L; Herrmann, H J

    2018-03-01

    In recent years self organized critical neuronal models have provided insights regarding the origin of the experimentally observed avalanching behavior of neuronal systems. It has been shown that dynamical synapses, as a form of short-term plasticity, can cause critical neuronal dynamics. Whereas long-term plasticity, such as Hebbian or activity dependent plasticity, have a crucial role in shaping the network structure and endowing neural systems with learning abilities. In this work we provide a model which combines both plasticity mechanisms, acting on two different time scales. The measured avalanche statistics are compatible with experimental results for both the avalanche size and duration distribution with biologically observed percentages of inhibitory neurons. The time series of neuronal activity exhibits temporal bursts leading to 1/f decay in the power spectrum. The presence of long-term plasticity gives the system the ability to learn binary rules such as xor, providing the foundation of future research on more complicated tasks such as pattern recognition.

  18. Critical neural networks with short- and long-term plasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michiels van Kessenich, L.; Luković, M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2018-03-01

    In recent years self organized critical neuronal models have provided insights regarding the origin of the experimentally observed avalanching behavior of neuronal systems. It has been shown that dynamical synapses, as a form of short-term plasticity, can cause critical neuronal dynamics. Whereas long-term plasticity, such as Hebbian or activity dependent plasticity, have a crucial role in shaping the network structure and endowing neural systems with learning abilities. In this work we provide a model which combines both plasticity mechanisms, acting on two different time scales. The measured avalanche statistics are compatible with experimental results for both the avalanche size and duration distribution with biologically observed percentages of inhibitory neurons. The time series of neuronal activity exhibits temporal bursts leading to 1 /f decay in the power spectrum. The presence of long-term plasticity gives the system the ability to learn binary rules such as xor, providing the foundation of future research on more complicated tasks such as pattern recognition.

  19. Logic Dynamics for Deductive Inference -- Its Stability and Neural Basis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsuda, Ichiro

    2014-12-01

    We propose a dynamical model that represents a process of deductive inference. We discuss the stability of logic dynamics and a neural basis for the dynamics. We propose a new concept of descriptive stability, thereby enabling a structure of stable descriptions of mathematical models concerning dynamic phenomena to be clarified. The present theory is based on the wider and deeper thoughts of John S. Nicolis. In particular, it is based on our joint paper on the chaos theory of human short-term memories with a magic number of seven plus or minus two.

  20. Hypersonic Vehicle Propulsion System Simplified Model Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stueber, Thomas J.; Raitano, Paul; Le, Dzu K.; Ouzts, Peter

    2007-01-01

    This document addresses the modeling task plan for the hypersonic GN&C GRC team members. The overall propulsion system modeling task plan is a multi-step process and the task plan identified in this document addresses the first steps (short term modeling goals). The procedures and tools produced from this effort will be useful for creating simplified dynamic models applicable to a hypersonic vehicle propulsion system. The document continues with the GRC short term modeling goal. Next, a general description of the desired simplified model is presented along with simulations that are available to varying degrees. The simulations may be available in electronic form (FORTRAN, CFD, MatLab,...) or in paper form in published documents. Finally, roadmaps outlining possible avenues towards realizing simplified model are presented.

  1. Demographic projection of high-elevation white pines infected with white pine blister rust: a nonlinear disease model

    Treesearch

    S. G. Field; A. W. Schoettle; J. G. Klutsch; S. J. Tavener; M. F. Antolin

    2012-01-01

    Matrix population models have long been used to examine and predict the fate of threatened populations. However, the majority of these efforts concentrate on long-term equilibrium dynamics of linear systems and their underlying assumptions and, therefore, omit the analysis of transience. Since management decisions are typically concerned with the short term (

  2. Mathematical Modeling of Physical and Cognitive Performance Decrement from Mechanical and Inhalation Insults

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    on specific short term problems. 1.1.1 Dynamic Physiological Modeling The oxygenation of the blood by the lung through respiration is a critical...tests as apnea , reduced arterial saturation, and may even be linked to long term CNS deficits. Inhalation of toxic gases can dramatically affect the...of TGAS model the respiration , circulation, and metabolic processes and include models of the ventilation and cardiac output control due to 3

  3. Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health.

  4. Solar ultraviolet radiation induced variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, L. L.

    1987-01-01

    The detectability and interpretation of short-term solar UV induced responses of middle atmospheric ozone, temperature, and dynamics are reviewed. The detectability of solar UV induced perturbations in the middle atmosphere is studied in terms of seasonal and endogenic dynamical variations. The interpretation of low-latitude ozone and possible temperature responses on the solar rotation time scale is examined. The use of these data to constrain or test photochemical model predictions is discussed.

  5. The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

    2006-01-01

    Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

  6. Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

    PubMed Central

    Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

    2012-01-01

    Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections. PMID:23251466

  7. Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stewart, Ian B.; Arendt, Dustin L.; Bell, Eric B.

    Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. This work addresses several important tasks of visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word’s contextual semantics. We study the relationship between short-term concept drift and representation shift on a large social media corpus – VKontakte collected during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014 – 2015. We visualize short-term representation shift for example keywords and build predictive models to forecast short-term shifts in meaning from previous meaning as well as from conceptmore » drift. We show that short-term representation shift can be accurately predicted up to several weeks in advance and that visualization provides insight into meaning change. Our approach can be used to explore and characterize specific aspects of the streaming corpus during crisis events and potentially improve other downstream classification tasks including real-time event forecasting in social media.« less

  8. Coupling long and short term decisions in the design of urban water supply infrastructure for added reliability and flexibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, G.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

    2016-12-01

    The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty and water scarcity requires a strategic combination of supply sources for reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources involves integration of long and short term planning to determine what and when to expand, and how much to use of each supply source accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. This research presents an integrated methodology coupling dynamic programming optimization with quadratic programming to optimize the expansion (long term) and operations (short term) of multiple water supply alternatives. Lagrange Multipliers produced by the short-term model provide a signal about the marginal opportunity cost of expansion to the long-term model, in an iterative procedure. A simulation model hosts the water supply infrastructure and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions; (b) evaluation of water transfers between urban supply systems; and (c) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion.

  9. A Neural Network Model to Learn Multiple Tasks under Dynamic Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsumori, Kenji; Ozawa, Seiichi

    When environments are dynamically changed for agents, the knowledge acquired in an environment might be useless in future. In such dynamic environments, agents should be able to not only acquire new knowledge but also modify old knowledge in learning. However, modifying all knowledge acquired before is not efficient because the knowledge once acquired may be useful again when similar environment reappears and some knowledge can be shared among different environments. To learn efficiently in such environments, we propose a neural network model that consists of the following modules: resource allocating network, long-term & short-term memory, and environment change detector. We evaluate the model under a class of dynamic environments where multiple function approximation tasks are sequentially given. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model possesses stable incremental learning, accurate environmental change detection, proper association and recall of old knowledge, and efficient knowledge transfer.

  10. Long short-term memory for speaker generalization in supervised speech separation

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jitong; Wang, DeLiang

    2017-01-01

    Speech separation can be formulated as learning to estimate a time-frequency mask from acoustic features extracted from noisy speech. For supervised speech separation, generalization to unseen noises and unseen speakers is a critical issue. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successful in noise-independent speech separation, DNNs are limited in modeling a large number of speakers. To improve speaker generalization, a separation model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed, which naturally accounts for temporal dynamics of speech. Systematic evaluation shows that the proposed model substantially outperforms a DNN-based model on unseen speakers and unseen noises in terms of objective speech intelligibility. Analyzing LSTM internal representations reveals that LSTM captures long-term speech contexts. It is also found that the LSTM model is more advantageous for low-latency speech separation and it, without future frames, performs better than the DNN model with future frames. The proposed model represents an effective approach for speaker- and noise-independent speech separation. PMID:28679261

  11. Learning Latent Variable and Predictive Models of Dynamical Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-01

    stable over the full 1000 frame image sequence without significant damping. C. Sam- ples drawn from a least squares synthesized sequences (top), and...LDS stabilizing algorithms, LB-1 and LB-2. Bars at every 20 timesteps denote variance in the results. CG provides the best stable short term predictions...observations. This thesis contributes (1) novel learning algorithms for existing dynamical system models that overcome significant limitations of previous

  12. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data records in combination with theoretical models of ENSO. This fundamental result that shows the ENSO phenomenon has a stable tropical Pacific attractor with El Niño and La Niña phases, tropical and extratropical coupling and an intermittency or longer-term form of chaos. We call this attractor the Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation as the phenomenon is measurable in the Southern Oscillation. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=nee&id=ED055322','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=nee&id=ED055322"><span>Short Range Planning for Educational Management.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Turksen, I. B.; Holzman, A. G.</p> <p></p> <p>A planning cycle for any autonomous university entity contains five basic processes: information storage and retrieval forecasting, resource allocation, scheduling, and a term of study with a feedback loop. The resource allocation process is investigated for the development of shortrange planning models. Dynamic models wth linear and quadratic…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1743994','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1743994"><span>"Going solid": a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cook, R; Rasmussen, J</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>

 Rather than being a static property of hospitals and other healthcare facilities, safety is dynamic and often on short time scales. In the past most healthcare delivery systems were loosely coupled—that is, activities and conditions in one part of the system had only limited effect on those elsewhere. Loose coupling allowed the system to buffer many conditions such as short term surges in demand. Modern management techniques and information systems have allowed facilities to reduce inefficiencies in operation. One side effect is the loss of buffers that previously accommodated demand surges. As a result, situations occur in which activities in one area of the hospital become critically dependent on seemingly insignificant events in seemingly distant areas. This tight coupling condition is called "going solid". Rasmussen's dynamic model of risk and safety can be used to formulate a model of patient safety dynamics that includes "going solid" and its consequences. Because the model addresses the dynamic aspects of safety, it is particularly suited to understanding current conditions in modern healthcare delivery and the way these conditions may lead to accidents. PMID:15805459</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012Chaos..22c3127C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012Chaos..22c3127C"><span>The architecture of dynamic reservoir in the echo state network</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cui, Hongyan; Liu, Xiang; Li, Lixiang</p> <p>2012-09-01</p> <p>Echo state network (ESN) has recently attracted increasing interests because of its superior capability in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. In the conventional echo state network model, its dynamic reservoir (DR) has a random and sparse topology, which is far from the real biological neural networks from both structural and functional perspectives. We hereby propose three novel types of echo state networks with new dynamic reservoir topologies based on complex network theory, i.e., with a small-world topology, a scale-free topology, and a mixture of small-world and scale-free topologies, respectively. We then analyze the relationship between the dynamic reservoir structure and its prediction capability. We utilize two commonly used time series to evaluate the prediction performance of the three proposed echo state networks and compare them to the conventional model. We also use independent and identically distributed time series to analyze the short-term memory and prediction precision of these echo state networks. Furthermore, we study the ratio of scale-free topology and the small-world topology in the mixed-topology network, and examine its influence on the performance of the echo state networks. Our simulation results show that the proposed echo state network models have better prediction capabilities, a wider spectral radius, but retain almost the same short-term memory capacity as compared to the conventional echo state network model. We also find that the smaller the ratio of the scale-free topology over the small-world topology, the better the memory capacities.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23517608','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23517608"><span>The emergence of learning-teaching trajectories in education: a complex dynamic systems approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Steenbeek, Henderien; van Geert, Paul</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>In this article we shall focus on learning-teaching trajectories ='successful' as well as 'unsuccessful' ones - as emergent and dynamic phenomena resulting from the interactions in the entire educational context, in particular the interaction between students and teachers viewed as processes of intertwining self-, other- and co-regulation. The article provides a review of the educational research literature on action regulation in learning and teaching, and interprets this literature in light of the theory of complex dynamic systems. Based on this reinterpretation of the literature, two dynamic models are proposed, one focusing on the short-term dynamics of learning-teaching interactions as they take place in classrooms, the other focusing on the long-term dynamics of interactions in a network of variables encompassing concerns, evaluations, actions and action effects (such as learning) students and teachers. The aim of presenting these models is to demonstrate, first, the possibility of transforming existing educational theory into dynamic models and, second, to provide some suggestions as to how such models can be used to further educational theory and practice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T11E..03B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T11E..03B"><span>How long-term dynamics of sediment subduction controls short-term dynamics of seismicity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brizzi, S.; van Zelst, I.; van Dinther, Y.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Most of the world's greatest earthquakes occur along the subduction megathrust. Weak and porous sediments have been suggested to homogenize the plate interface and thereby promote lateral rupture propagation and great earthquakes. However, the importance of sediment thickness, let alone their physical role, is not yet unequivocally established. Based on a multivariate statistical analysis of a global database of 62 subduction segments, we confirm that sediment thickness is one of the key parameters controlling the maximum magnitude a megathrust can generate. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations highlighted that the occurrence of great earthquakes on sediment-rich subduction segments is very unlikely (p-value≪0.05) related to pure chance. To understand how sediments in the subduction channel regulate earthquake size, this study extends and demystifies multivariate, spatiotemporally limited data through numerical modeling. We use the 2D Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical modeling approach to simulate both the long- and short-term dynamics of subduction and related seismogenesis (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). These models solve for the conservation of mass, momentum and energy using a visco-elasto-plastic rheology with rate-dependent friction. Results show that subducted sediments have a strong influence on the long-term evolution of the convergent margin. Increasing the sediment thickness on the incoming plate from 0 to 6 km causes a decrease of slab dip from 23° to 10°. This, in addition to increased radiogenic heating, extends isotherms, thereby widening the seismogenic portion of the megathrust from 80 to 150 km. Consequently, over tens of thousands of years, we observe that the maximum moment magnitude of megathrust earthquakes increases from 8.2 to 9.2 for these shallower and warmer interfaces. In addition, we observe more and larger splay faults, which could enhance vertical seafloor displacements. These results highlight the primary role of subducted sediments in controlling the seismogenic behavior of subduction megathrusts. Furthermore, they illustrate the distinct impact long-term subduction dynamics can have on short-term seismogenesis. This impact likely surpasses the effect a lower static friction would have on seismogenesis, especially for the maximum magnitude of subduction segments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29887750','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29887750"><span>Data-driven forecasting of high-dimensional chaotic systems with long short-term memory networks.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vlachas, Pantelis R; Byeon, Wonmin; Wan, Zhong Y; Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Koumoutsakos, Petros</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in their reduced order space and are shown to be an effective set of nonlinear approximators of their attractor. We demonstrate the forecasting performance of the LSTM and compare it with Gaussian processes (GPs) in time series obtained from the Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and a prototype climate model. The LSTM networks outperform the GPs in short-term forecasting accuracy in all applications considered. A hybrid architecture, extending the LSTM with a mean stochastic model (MSM-LSTM), is proposed to ensure convergence to the invariant measure. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of LSTM networks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998AcSSn..11..573C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998AcSSn..11..573C"><span>Fractal and chaotic laws on seismic dissipated energy in an energy system of engineering structures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cui, Yu-Hong; Nie, Yong-An; Yan, Zong-Da; Wu, Guo-You</p> <p>1998-09-01</p> <p>Fractal and chaotic laws of engineering structures are discussed in this paper, it means that the intrinsic essences and laws on dynamic systems which are made from seismic dissipated energy intensity E d and intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e are analyzed. Based on the intrinsic characters of chaotic and fractal dynamic system of E d and I e, three kinds of approximate dynamic models are rebuilt one by one: index autoregressive model, threshold autoregressive model and local-approximate autoregressive model. The innate laws, essences and systematic error of evolutional behavior I e are explained over all, the short-term behavior predictability and long-term behavior probability of which are analyzed in the end. That may be valuable for earthquake-resistant theory and analysis method in practical engineering structures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92b2722K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92b2722K"><span>Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O (√{N }) ] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_3 --> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28742100','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28742100"><span>A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Armeanu, Daniel; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5524352','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5524352"><span>A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Armeanu, Daniel; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. PMID:28742100</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1236042','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1236042"><span>Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.</p> <p></p> <p>Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1236042-residual-viremia-treated-hiv+-individuals','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1236042-residual-viremia-treated-hiv+-individuals"><span>Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.</p> <p>2016-01-06</p> <p>Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/353185','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/353185"><span>A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 progress report and presentations at the annual meeting, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 3--4, 1997</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Faybishenko, B.; Doughty, C.; Geller, J.</p> <p>1998-07-01</p> <p>Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, the authors examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to developmore » a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, they measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which they try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies. View-graphs from ten presentations made at the annual meeting held December 3--4, 1997 are included in an appendix to this report.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22492498-behaviour-pm10-ozone-malaysia-through-non-linear-dynamical-systems','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22492498-behaviour-pm10-ozone-malaysia-through-non-linear-dynamical-systems"><span>The behaviour of PM10 and ozone in Malaysia through non-linear dynamical systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Sapini, Muhamad Luqman; Rahim, Nurul Zahirah binti Abd; Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md.</p> <p></p> <p>Prediction of ozone (O3) and PM10 is very important as both these air pollutants affect human health, human activities and more. Short-term forecasting of air quality is needed as preventive measures and effective action can be taken. Therefore, if it is detected that the ozone data is of a chaotic dynamical systems, a model using the nonlinear dynamic from chaos theory data can be made and thus forecasts for the short term would be more accurate. This study uses two methods, namely the 0-1 Test and Lyapunov Exponent. In addition, the effect of noise reduction on the analysis of timemore » series data will be seen by using two smoothing methods: Rectangular methods and Triangle methods. At the end of the study, recommendations were made to get better results in the future.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4687339','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4687339"><span>Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ming-jun, Deng; Shi-ru, Qu</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting. PMID:26779258</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26779258','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26779258"><span>Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Deng, Ming-jun; Qu, Shi-ru</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhyA..486..947L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhyA..486..947L"><span>Clustering of short and long-term co-movements in international financial and commodity markets in wavelet domain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lahmiri, Salim; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>We propose a general framework for measuring short and long term dynamics in asset classes based on the wavelet presentation of clustering analysis. The empirical results show strong evidence of instability of the financial system aftermath of the global financial crisis. Indeed, both short and long-term dynamics have significantly changed after the global financial crisis. This study provides an interesting insights complex structure of global financial and economic system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1493..312D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1493..312D"><span>A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=programmable&pg=5&id=EJ789706','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=programmable&pg=5&id=EJ789706"><span>The Effects of Hearing Aid Compression Parameters on the Short-Term Dynamic Range of Continuous Speech</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Henning, Rebecca L. Warner; Bentler, Ruth A.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and quantitatively model the independent and interactive effects of compression ratio, number of compression channels, and release time on the dynamic range of continuous speech. Method: A CD of the Rainbow Passage (J. E. Bernthal & N. W. Bankson, 1993) was used. The hearing aid was a…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9092R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9092R"><span>Carbon fluxes in tropical forest ecosystems: the value of Eddy-covariance data for individual-based dynamic forest gap models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The effects of climatic inter-annual fluctuations and human activities on the global carbon cycle are uncertain and currently a major issue in global vegetation models. Individual-based forest gap models, on the other hand, model vegetation structure and dynamics on a small spatial (<100 ha) and large temporal scale (>1000 years). They are well-established tools to reproduce successions of highly-diverse forest ecosystems and investigate disturbances as logging or fire events. However, the parameterizations of the relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes are often uncertain in these models (e.g. daily variable temperature and gross primary production (GPP)) and cannot be constrained from forest inventories. We addressed this uncertainty and linked high-resolution Eddy-covariance (EC) data with an individual-based forest gap model. The forest model FORMIND was applied to three diverse tropical forest sites in the Amazonian rainforest. Species diversity was categorized into three plant functional types. The parametrizations for the steady-state of biomass and forest structure were calibrated and validated with different forest inventories. The parameterizations of relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes were evaluated with EC-data on a daily time step. The validations of the steady-state showed that the forest model could reproduce biomass and forest structures from forest inventories. The daily estimations of carbon fluxes showed that the forest model reproduces GPP as observed by the EC-method. Daily fluctuations of GPP were clearly reflected as a response to daily climate variability. Ecosystem respiration remains a challenge on a daily time step due to a simplified soil respiration approach. In the long-term, however, the dynamic forest model is expected to estimate carbon budgets for highly-diverse tropical forests where EC-measurements are rare.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21790932','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21790932"><span>A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James</p> <p>2011-09-01</p> <p>Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27744143','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27744143"><span>Response of macroinvertebrate communities to temporal dynamics of pesticide mixtures: A case study from the Sacramento River watershed, California.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chiu, Ming-Chih; Hunt, Lisa; Resh, Vincent H</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Pesticide pollution from agricultural field run-off or spray drift has been documented to impact river ecosystems worldwide. However, there is limited data on short- and long-term effects of repeated pulses of pesticide mixtures on biotic assemblages in natural systems. We used reported pesticide application data as input to a hydrological fate and transport model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate spatiotemporal dynamics of pesticides mixtures in streams on a daily time-step. We then applied regression models to explore the relationship between macroinvertebrate communities and pesticide dynamics in the Sacramento River watershed of California during 2002-2013. We found that both maximum and average pesticide toxic units were important in determining impacts on macroinvertebrates, and that the compositions of macroinvertebrates trended toward taxa having higher resilience and resistance to pesticide exposure, based on the Species at Risk pesticide (SPEAR pesticides ) index. Results indicate that risk-assessment efforts can be improved by considering both short- and long-term effects of pesticide mixtures on macroinvertebrate community composition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5510904','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5510904"><span>Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1885044','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1885044"><span>[Assessment of the distribution in the body and the dose on the respiratory tract and organs after single, short-term and long-term inhalation of americium-241].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Malykhin, V M</p> <p>1991-04-01</p> <p>On the basis of comparison of publications on accidental human intake of americium-241 and animal experimental studies dosimetric characteristics were obtained reflecting the dynamics of accumulation, formation of the dose on the organs and parts of the respiratory tract, as well as of the 24-hour elimination from the organism of the mentioned radionuclide following single, short- and long-term administration of americium-241 from the air. Results were obtained with the use of computers for quantitative modelling of the most complete metabolic transport scheme of americium.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3437473','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3437473"><span>MULTISCALE MODEL OF CRISPR-INDUCED COEVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS: DIVERSIFICATION AT THE INTERFACE OF LAMARCK AND DARWIN</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Childs, Lauren M; Held, Nicole L; Young, Mark J; Whitaker, Rachel J; Weitz, Joshua S</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) system is a recently discovered type of adaptive immune defense in bacteria and archaea that functions via directed incorporation of viral and plasmid DNA into host genomes. Here, we introduce a multiscale model of dynamic coevolution between hosts and viruses in an ecological context that incorporates CRISPR immunity principles. We analyze the model to test whether and how CRISPR immunity induces host and viral diversification and the maintenance of many coexisting strains. We show that hosts and viruses coevolve to form highly diverse communities. We observe the punctuated replacement of existent strains, such that populations have very low similarity compared over the long term. However, in the short term, we observe evolutionary dynamics consistent with both incomplete selective sweeps of novel strains (as single strains and coalitions) and the recurrence of previously rare strains. Coalitions of multiple dominant host strains are predicted to arise because host strains can have nearly identical immune phenotypes mediated by CRISPR defense albeit with different genotypes. We close by discussing how our explicit eco-evolutionary model of CRISPR immunity can help guide efforts to understand the drivers of diversity seen in microbial communities where CRISPR systems are active. PMID:22759281</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2025676','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2025676"><span>Short-Range Order and Collective Dynamics of DMPC Bilayers: A Comparison between Molecular Dynamics Simulations, X-Ray, and Neutron Scattering Experiments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hub, Jochen S.; Salditt, Tim; Rheinstädter, Maikel C.; de Groot, Bert L.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>We present an extensive comparison of short-range order and short wavelength dynamics of a hydrated phospholipid bilayer derived by molecular dynamics simulations, elastic x-ray, and inelastic neutron scattering experiments. The quantities that are compared between simulation and experiment include static and dynamic structure factors, reciprocal space mappings, and electron density profiles. We show that the simultaneous use of molecular dynamics and diffraction data can help to extract real space properties like the area per lipid and the lipid chain ordering from experimental data. In addition, we assert that the interchain distance can be computed to high accuracy from the interchain correlation peak of the structure factor. Moreover, it is found that the position of the interchain correlation peak is not affected by the area per lipid, while its correlation length decreases linearly with the area per lipid. This finding allows us to relate a property of the structure factor quantitatively to the area per lipid. Finally, the short wavelength dynamics obtained from the simulations and from inelastic neutron scattering are analyzed and compared. The conventional interpretation in terms of the three-effective-eigenmode model is found to be only partly suitable to describe the complex fluid dynamics of lipid chains. PMID:17631531</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESD.....8.1171B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESD.....8.1171B"><span>Inverse stochastic-dynamic models for high-resolution Greenland ice core records</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Boers, Niklas; Chekroun, Mickael D.; Liu, Honghu; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Svensson, Anders; Bigler, Matthias; Ghil, Michael</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Proxy records from Greenland ice cores have been studied for several decades, yet many open questions remain regarding the climate variability encoded therein. Here, we use a Bayesian framework for inferring inverse, stochastic-dynamic models from δ18O and dust records of unprecedented, subdecadal temporal resolution. The records stem from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP), and we focus on the time interval 59-22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the dynamical characteristics of both the δ18O and dust proxy records, including the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, as well as statistical properties such as probability density functions, waiting times and power spectra, with no need for any external forcing. The crucial ingredients for capturing these properties are (i) high-resolution training data, (ii) cubic drift terms, (iii) nonlinear coupling terms between the δ18O and dust time series, and (iv) non-Markovian contributions that represent short-term memory effects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H32B..02A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H32B..02A"><span>Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasting using Deep Learning approaches</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Predicting short-range quantitative precipitation is very important for flood forecasting, early flood warning and other hydrometeorological purposes. This study aims to improve the precipitation forecasting skills using a recently developed and advanced machine learning technique named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The proposed LSTM learns the changing patterns of clouds from Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) images, retrieved from the infrared channel of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), using a sophisticated and effective learning method. After learning the dynamics of clouds, the LSTM model predicts the upcoming rainy CTBT events. The proposed model is then merged with a precipitation estimation algorithm termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) to provide precipitation forecasts. The results of merged LSTM with PERSIANN are compared to the results of an Elman-type Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) merged with PERSIANN and Final Analysis of Global Forecast System model over the states of Oklahoma, Florida and Oregon. The performance of each model is investigated during 3 storm events each located over one of the study regions. The results indicate the outperformance of merged LSTM forecasts comparing to the numerical and statistical baselines in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), RMSE and correlation coefficient especially in convective systems. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_4 --> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=UCC&pg=3&id=EJ838985','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=UCC&pg=3&id=EJ838985"><span>A Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy Approach for College Students</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Carlson, Thomas M.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>This article explores the need for university counseling centers (UCCs) to implement brief therapies and describes one such treatment, intensive short-term dynamic psychotherapy (ISTDP), as a particularly viable therapeutic approach in this setting. Because ISTDP is not appropriate for all students seeking therapy, a careful assessment of the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22232656','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22232656"><span>Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego</p> <p>2012-01-24</p> <p>An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21856718','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21856718"><span>The short- to medium-term predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk assessment measures in a secure forensic hospital.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Ogloff, James R P; Daffern, Michael</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.H52D..09S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.H52D..09S"><span>Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sheer, D. P.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990PhDT.........7Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990PhDT.........7Z"><span>The balance of dynamic vorticity for the Presidents' Day storm</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zapotocny, Tom Harmon</p> <p>1990-06-01</p> <p>The maintenance of isentropic dynamic vorticity, defined as the vertical component of the curl of momentum, is examined for the life cycle of the Presidents'Day storm. Dynamic vorticity and its tendency are also compared to the more commonly used kinematic vorticity and its tendency. Diagnostics are first performed on an inviscid numerical simulation of an amplifying baroclinic disturbance by a hybrid isentropic-sigma coordinate channel model. The main purpose for studying a simulation with the channel model is to examine the first-order balance of dynamic vorticity during development under simplified conditions. A more in-depth evaluation of dynamic vorticity is presented for an excellent numerical simulation of the Presidents' Day storm of 18 to 20 February 1979. Dynamic vorticity diagnostics for the Presidents' Day storm reveal the importance of mass asymmetries within an isentropic layer and also document the effect of weak static stability. Prior to cyclogenesis, a strong cyclonic circulation tendency exists from both the vertical advection of vorticity and tilting terms. Another important feature is the merging of two synoptic scale short waves; one propagating southeast from the Great Lakes states, the other moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclogenesis is initiated by the latter of these two short waves, while rapid development occurs when the Great Lakes short waves reaches the Middle Atlantic states. During rapid development, an assessment of the ageostrophic component on spin-up is obtained from a balance of the divergence term and pressure stresses. Spin-up from the ageostrophic component is largest ahead of the lower tropospheric warm front. The impact of an 80 m/s subtropical jet streak, which enhances upper tropospheric processes during development, is also examined.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28987766','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28987766"><span>Nervous system excitability and joint stiffness following short-term dynamic ankle immobilization.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stirling, Alyssa M; McBride, Jeffrey M; Merritt, Edward K; Needle, Alan R</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Joint immobilization has been demonstrated to modify neural excitability in subsets of healthy populations, leading to disinhibition of cortical and reflexive pathways. However, these findings may have limited clinical application as most models have investigated casting and rigid immobilization, while many musculoskeletal injuries often utilize dynamic immobilization devices such as boot immobilizers and pneumatic splints that allow for modified ambulation. We therefore aimed to determine the short-term effects of ambulation in ankle immobilization devices on nervous system excitability and stiffness in able-bodied individuals. A repeated-measures design was implemented where 12 healthy individuals were tested for cortical excitability to the ankle musculature using transcranial magnetic stimulation, reflexive excitability using the Hoffmann reflex, and ankle joint stiffness using arthrometry before and after 30min of ambulation with a boot immobilizer, pneumatic leg splint, or barefoot. Motor evoked potential (MEP), cortical silent period (CSP), H max to M max ratio, and ankle joint displacement were extracted as dependent variables. Results indicated that despite the novel motor demands of walking in immobilization devices, no significant changes in cortical excitability (F≥0.335, P≥0.169), reflexive excitability (F≥0.027, P≥0.083), or joint stiffness (F≥0.558, P≥0.169) occurred. These findings indicate that short-term ambulation in dynamic immobilization devices does not modify neural excitability despite forced constraints on the sensorimotor system. We may therefore conclude that modifications to neural excitability in previous immobilization models are mediated by long-term nervous system plasticity rather than acute mechanisms, and there appear to be no robust changes in corticomotor or spinal excitability acutely posed by ambulation with immobilization devices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdWR...52..232B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdWR...52..232B"><span>Catchment-scale herbicides transport: Theory and application</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bertuzzo, E.; Thomet, M.; Botter, G.; Rinaldo, A.</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>This paper proposes and tests a model which couples the description of hydrologic flow and transport of herbicides at catchment scales. The model accounts for streamflow components' age to characterize short and long term fluctuations of herbicide flux concentrations in stream waters, whose peaks exceeding a toxic threshold are key to exposure risk of aquatic ecosystems. The model is based on a travel time formulation of transport embedding a source zone that describes near surface herbicide dynamics. To this aim we generalize a recently proposed scheme for the analytical derivation of travel time distributions to the case of solutes that can be partially taken up by transpiration and undergo chemical degradation. The framework developed is evaluated by comparing modeled hydrographs and atrazine chemographs with those measured in the Aabach agricultural catchment (Switzerland). The model proves reliable in defining complex transport features shaped by the interplay of long term processes, related to the persistence of solute components in soils, and short term dynamics related to storm inter-arrivals. The effects of stochasticity in rainfall patterns and application dates on concentrations and loads in runoff are assessed via Monte Carlo simulations, highlighting the crucial role played by the first rainfall event occurring after herbicide application. A probabilistic framework for critical determinants of exposure risk to aquatic communities is defined. Modeling of herbicides circulation at catchment scale thus emerges as essential tools for ecological risk assessment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22304464','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22304464"><span>Climatic, biological, and land cover controls on the exchange of gas-phase semivolatile chemical pollutants between forest canopies and the atmosphere.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nizzetto, Luca; Perlinger, Judith A</p> <p>2012-03-06</p> <p>An ecophysiological model of a structured broadleaved forest canopy was coupled to a chemical fate model of the air-canopy exchange of gaseous semivolatile chemicals to dynamically assess the short-term (hours) and medium term (days to season) air-canopy exchange and the influence of biological, climatic, and land cover drivers on the dynamics of the air-canopy exchange and on the canopy storage for airborne semivolatile pollutants. The chemical fate model accounts for effects of short-term variations in air temperature, wind speed, stomatal opening, and leaf energy balance, all as a function of layer in the canopy. Simulations showed the potential occurrence of intense short/medium term re-emission of pollutants having log K(OA) up to 10.7 from the canopy as a result of environmental forcing. In addition, relatively small interannual variations in seasonally averaged air temperature, canopy biomass, and precipitation can produce relevant changes in the canopy storage capacity for the chemicals. It was estimated that possible climate change related variability in environmental parameters (e.g., an increase of 2 °C in seasonally averaged air temperature in combination with a 10% reduction in canopy biomass due to, e.g., disturbance or acclimatization) may cause a reduction in canopy storage capacity of up to 15-25%, favoring re-emission and potential for long-range atmospheric transport. On the other hand, an increase of 300% in yearly precipitation can increase canopy sequestration by 2-7% for the less hydrophobic compounds.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034290','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034290"><span>Modeling the relations between flow regime components, species traits, and spawning success of fishes in warmwater streams</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Craven, S.W.; Peterson, J.T.; Freeman, Mary C.; Kwak, T.J.; Irwin, E.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management. ?? 2010 US Government.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28522983','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28522983"><span>A Dynamical Model of Pitch Memory Provides an Improved Basis for Implied Harmony Estimation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Ji Chul</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Tonal melody can imply vertical harmony through a sequence of tones. Current methods for automatic chord estimation commonly use chroma-based features extracted from audio signals. However, the implied harmony of unaccompanied melodies can be difficult to estimate on the basis of chroma content in the presence of frequent nonchord tones. Here we present a novel approach to automatic chord estimation based on the human perception of pitch sequences. We use cohesion and inhibition between pitches in auditory short-term memory to differentiate chord tones and nonchord tones in tonal melodies. We model short-term pitch memory as a gradient frequency neural network, which is a biologically realistic model of auditory neural processing. The model is a dynamical system consisting of a network of tonotopically tuned nonlinear oscillators driven by audio signals. The oscillators interact with each other through nonlinear resonance and lateral inhibition, and the pattern of oscillatory traces emerging from the interactions is taken as a measure of pitch salience. We test the model with a collection of unaccompanied tonal melodies to evaluate it as a feature extractor for chord estimation. We show that chord tones are selectively enhanced in the response of the model, thereby increasing the accuracy of implied harmony estimation. We also find that, like other existing features for chord estimation, the performance of the model can be improved by using segmented input signals. We discuss possible ways to expand the present model into a full chord estimation system within the dynamical systems framework.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1253705-slow-dynamics-model-compressed-air-energy-storage-battery-storage-technologies-automatic-generation-control','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1253705-slow-dynamics-model-compressed-air-energy-storage-battery-storage-technologies-automatic-generation-control"><span>Slow Dynamics Model of Compressed Air Energy Storage and Battery Storage Technologies for Automatic Generation Control</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Krishnan, Venkat; Das, Trishna</p> <p></p> <p>Increasing variable generation penetration and the consequent increase in short-term variability makes energy storage technologies look attractive, especially in the ancillary market for providing frequency regulation services. This paper presents slow dynamics model for compressed air energy storage and battery storage technologies that can be used in automatic generation control studies to assess the system frequency response and quantify the benefits from storage technologies in providing regulation service. The paper also represents the slow dynamics model of the power system integrated with storage technologies in a complete state space form. The storage technologies have been integrated to the IEEE 24more » bus system with single area, and a comparative study of various solution strategies including transmission enhancement and combustion turbine have been performed in terms of generation cycling and frequency response performance metrics.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=%22patient+characteristic%22&pg=7&id=ED284129','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=%22patient+characteristic%22&pg=7&id=ED284129"><span>Outcome Research on Short-Term Psychodynamic Psychotherapy: A Preliminary Review.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>White, Scott Allyn</p> <p></p> <p>This paper reviews the empirical research on short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (STDP). It begins with a brief history of STDP, identifying current developers and researchers of STDP and listing commonalities among various short-term dynamic psychotherapies. In this review, research is grouped broadly into two categories: controlled…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29772951','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29772951"><span>The (lack of) effect of dynamic visual noise on the concreteness effect in short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Castellà, Judit; Campoy, Guillermo</p> <p>2018-05-17</p> <p>It has been suggested that the concreteness effect in short-term memory (STM) is a consequence of concrete words having more distinctive and richer semantic representations. The generation and storage of visual codes in STM could also play a crucial role on the effect because concrete words are more imaginable than abstract words. If this were the case, the introduction of a visual interference task would be expected to disrupt recall of concrete words. A Dynamic Visual Noise (DVN) display, which has been proven to eliminate the concreteness effect on long-term memory (LTM), was presented along encoding of concrete and abstract words in a STM serial recall task. Results showed a main effect of word type, with more item errors in abstract words, a main effect of DVN, which impaired global performance due to more order errors, but no interaction, suggesting that DVN did not have any impact on the concreteness effect. These findings are discussed in terms of LTM participation through redintegration processes and in terms of the language-based models of verbal STM.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..DFDQ34008Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..DFDQ34008Y"><span>Simulation of noisy dynamical system by Deep Learning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yeo, Kyongmin</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Deep learning has attracted huge attention due to its powerful representation capability. However, most of the studies on deep learning have been focused on visual analytics or language modeling and the capability of the deep learning in modeling dynamical systems is not well understood. In this study, we use a recurrent neural network to model noisy nonlinear dynamical systems. In particular, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, which constructs internal nonlinear dynamics systems. We propose a cross-entropy loss with spatial ridge regularization to learn a non-stationary conditional probability distribution from a noisy nonlinear dynamical system. A Monte Carlo procedure to perform time-marching simulations by using the LSTM is presented. The behavior of the LSTM is studied by using noisy, forced Van der Pol oscillator and Ikeda equation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28921686','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28921686"><span>The effects of dynamical synapses on firing rate activity: a spiking neural network model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie Z; Moustafa, Ahmed A</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Accumulating evidence relates the fine-tuning of synaptic maturation and regulation of neural network activity to several key factors, including GABA A signaling and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons (i.e., local connectivity). Furthermore, a number of studies consider short-term synaptic plasticity (STP) as an essential element in the instant modification of synaptic efficacy in the neuronal network and in modulating responses to sustained ranges of external Poisson input frequency (IF). Nevertheless, evaluating the firing activity in response to the dynamical interaction between STP (triggered by ranges of IF) and these key parameters in vitro remains elusive. Therefore, we designed a spiking neural network (SNN) model in which we incorporated the following parameters: local density of arbor essences and a lateral spread length between neighboring neurons. We also created several network scenarios based on these key parameters. Then, we implemented two classes of STP: (1) short-term synaptic depression (STD) and (2) short-term synaptic facilitation (STF). Each class has two differential forms based on the parametric value of its synaptic time constant (either for depressing or facilitating synapses). Lastly, we compared the neural firing responses before and after the treatment with STP. We found that dynamical synapses (STP) have a critical differential role on evaluating and modulating the firing rate activity in each network scenario. Moreover, we investigated the impact of changing the balance between excitation (E) and inhibition (I) on stabilizing this firing activity. © 2017 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvB..96g5417T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvB..96g5417T"><span>Short-time dynamics of molecular junctions after projective measurement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tang, Gaomin; Xing, Yanxia; Wang, Jian</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>In this work, we study the short-time dynamics of a molecular junction described by Anderson-Holstein model using full-counting statistics after projective measurement. The coupling between the central quantum dot (QD) and two leads was turned on at remote past and the system is evolved to steady state at time t =0 , when we perform the projective measurement in one of the lead. Generating function for the charge transfer is expressed as a Fredholm determinant in terms of Keldysh nonequilibrium Green's function in the time domain. It is found that the current is not constant at short times indicating that the measurement does perturb the system. We numerically compare the current behaviors after the projective measurement with those in the transient regime where the subsystems are connected at t =0 . The universal scaling for high-order cumulants is observed for the case with zero QD occupation due to the unidirectional transport at short times. The influences of electron-phonon interaction on short-time dynamics of electric current, shot noise, and differential conductance are analyzed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3563596','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3563596"><span>Effects of Increased Nitrogen Deposition and Rotation Length on Long-Term Productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata Plantation in Southern China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhao, Meifang; Xiang, Wenhua; Tian, Dalun; Deng, Xiangwen; Huang, Zhihong; Zhou, Xiaolu; Peng, Changhui</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. has been widely planted in subtropical China to meet increasing timber demands, leading to short-rotation practices that deplete soil nutrients. However, increased nitrogen (N) deposition offsets soil N depletion. While long-term experimental data investigating the coupled effects related to short rotation practices and increasing N deposition are scarce, applying model simulations may yield insights. In this study, the CenW3.1 model was validated and parameterized using data from pure C. lanceolata plantations. The model was then used to simulate various changes in long-term productivity. Results indicated that responses of productivity of C. lanceolata plantation to increased N deposition were more related to stand age than N addition, depending on the proportion and age of growing forests. Our results have also shown a rapid peak in growth and N dynamics. The peak is reached sooner and is higher under higher level of N deposition. Short rotation lengths had a greater effect on productivity and N dynamics than high N deposition levels. Productivity and N dynamics decreased as the rotation length decreased. Total productivity levels suggest that a 30-year rotation length maximizes productivity at the 4.9 kg N ha−1 year−1 deposition level. For a specific rotation length, higher N deposition levels resulted in greater overall ecosystem C and N storage, but this positive correlation tendency gradually slowed down with increasing N deposition levels. More pronounced differences in N deposition levels occurred as rotation length decreased. To sustain C. lanceolata plantation productivity without offsite detrimental N effects, the appropriate rotation length is about 20–30 years for N deposition levels below 50 kg N ha−1 year−1 and about 15–20 years for N deposition levels above 50 kg N ha−1 year−1. These results highlight the importance of assessing N effects on carbon management and the long-term productivity of forest ecosystems. PMID:23390533</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3330414','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3330414"><span>Factors in Outcomes of Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy for Chronic vs. Nonchronic Major Depression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>LUBORSKY, LESTER; DIGUER, LOUIS; CACCIOLA, JOHN; BARBER, JACQUES P.; MORAS, KARLA; SCHMIDT, KELLY; DERUBEIS, ROBERT J.</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>The benefits, and variables influencing the benefits, of short-term dynamic psychotherapy for chronic major depression versus nonchronic major depression were examined for 49 patients. The two diagnostic groups started at the same level on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (GAF) and benefited similarly. The bases for the benefits were examined by linear models explaining 35% of termination BDI variance and 47% of termination GAF scores. By far the largest contributor to outcome was initial GAF, followed by presence of more than one comorbid Axis I diagnosis. Initial level of depression on the BDI was not a significant predictor of termination BDI. The chronic/ nonchronic distinction accounted for less than 1% of explained variance, and little was added by personality disorder, age, or gender. PMID:22700274</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100039469&hterms=bomb&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dbomb','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100039469&hterms=bomb&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dbomb"><span>A New View of Radiation-Induced Cancer: Integrating Short- and Long-Term Processes. Part II: Second Cancer Risk Estimation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David J.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19499238','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19499238"><span>A new view of radiation-induced cancer: integrating short- and long-term processes. Part II: second cancer risk estimation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shuryak, Igor; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K; Brenner, David J</p> <p>2009-08-01</p> <p>As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_5 --> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MPLA...3350083B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MPLA...3350083B"><span>Long-term evaluation of orbital dynamics in the Sun-planet system considering axial-tilt</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bakhtiari, Majid; Daneshjou, Kamran</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>In this paper, the axial-tilt (obliquity) effect of planets on the motion of planets’ orbiter in prolonged space missions has been investigated in the presence of the Sun gravity. The proposed model is based on non-simplified perturbed dynamic equations of planetary orbiter motion. From a new point of view, in this work, the dynamic equations regarding a disturbing body in elliptic inclined three-dimensional orbit are derived. The accuracy of this non-simplified method is validated with dual-averaged method employed on a generalized Earth-Moon system. It is shown that the neglected short-time oscillations in dual-averaged technique can accumulate and propel to remarkable errors in the prolonged evolution. After validation, the effects of the planet’s axial-tilt on eccentricity, inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of the orbiter are investigated. Moreover, a generalized model is provided to study the effects of third-body inclination and eccentricity on orbit characteristics. It is shown that the planet’s axial-tilt is the key to facilitating some significant changes in orbital elements in long-term mission and short-time oscillations must be considered in accurate prolonged evaluation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26683899','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26683899"><span>An integrated mathematical model of the human cardiopulmonary system: model development.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Albanese, Antonio; Cheng, Limei; Ursino, Mauro; Chbat, Nicolas W</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Several cardiovascular and pulmonary models have been proposed in the last few decades. However, very few have addressed the interactions between these two systems. Our group has developed an integrated cardiopulmonary model (CP Model) that mathematically describes the interactions between the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, along with their main short-term control mechanisms. The model has been compared with human and animal data taken from published literature. Due to the volume of the work, the paper is divided in two parts. The present paper is on model development and normophysiology, whereas the second is on the model's validation on hypoxic and hypercapnic conditions. The CP Model incorporates cardiovascular circulation, respiratory mechanics, tissue and alveolar gas exchange, as well as short-term neural control mechanisms acting on both the cardiovascular and the respiratory functions. The model is able to simulate physiological variables typically observed in adult humans under normal and pathological conditions and to explain the underlying mechanisms and dynamics. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRA..122.9183C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRA..122.9183C"><span>A neural network model of three-dimensional dynamic electron density in the inner magnetosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chu, X.; Bortnik, J.; Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Denton, R.; Yue, C.; Angelopoulos, V.; Thorne, R. M.; Darrouzet, F.; Ozhogin, P.; Kletzing, C. A.; Wang, Y.; Menietti, J.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>A plasma density model of the inner magnetosphere is important for a variety of applications including the study of wave-particle interactions, and wave excitation and propagation. Previous empirical models have been developed under many limiting assumptions and do not resolve short-term variations, which are especially important during storms. We present a three-dimensional dynamic electron density (DEN3D) model developed using a feedforward neural network with electron densities obtained from four satellite missions. The DEN3D model takes spacecraft location and time series of solar and geomagnetic indices (F10.7, SYM-H, and AL) as inputs. It can reproduce the observed density with a correlation coefficient of 0.95 and predict test data set with error less than a factor of 2. Its predictive ability on out-of-sample data is tested on field-aligned density profiles from the IMAGE satellite. DEN3D's predictive ability provides unprecedented opportunities to gain insight into the 3-D behavior of the inner magnetospheric plasma density at any time and location. As an example, we apply DEN3D to a storm that occurred on 1 June 2013. It successfully reproduces various well-known dynamic features in three dimensions, such as plasmaspheric erosion and recovery, as well as plume formation. Storm time long-term density variations are consistent with expectations; short-term variations appear to be modulated by substorm activity or enhanced convection, an effect that requires further study together with multispacecraft in situ or imaging measurements. Investigating plasmaspheric refilling with the model, we find that it is not monotonic in time and is more complex than expected from previous studies, deserving further attention.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18088328','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18088328"><span>Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: an integrated modelling approach in maize.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chenu, Karine; Chapman, Scott C; Hammer, Graeme L; McLean, Greg; Salah, Halim Ben Haj; Tardieu, François</p> <p>2008-03-01</p> <p>Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24379798','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24379798"><span>Non-linear dynamical classification of short time series of the rössler system in high noise regimes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lainscsek, Claudia; Weyhenmeyer, Jonathan; Hernandez, Manuel E; Poizner, Howard; Sejnowski, Terrence J</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Time series analysis with delay differential equations (DDEs) reveals non-linear properties of the underlying dynamical system and can serve as a non-linear time-domain classification tool. Here global DDE models were used to analyze short segments of simulated time series from a known dynamical system, the Rössler system, in high noise regimes. In a companion paper, we apply the DDE model developed here to classify short segments of encephalographic (EEG) data recorded from patients with Parkinson's disease and healthy subjects. Nine simulated subjects in each of two distinct classes were generated by varying the bifurcation parameter b and keeping the other two parameters (a and c) of the Rössler system fixed. All choices of b were in the chaotic parameter range. We diluted the simulated data using white noise ranging from 10 to -30 dB signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Structure selection was supervised by selecting the number of terms, delays, and order of non-linearity of the model DDE model that best linearly separated the two classes of data. The distances d from the linear dividing hyperplane was then used to assess the classification performance by computing the area A' under the ROC curve. The selected model was tested on untrained data using repeated random sub-sampling validation. DDEs were able to accurately distinguish the two dynamical conditions, and moreover, to quantify the changes in the dynamics. There was a significant correlation between the dynamical bifurcation parameter b of the simulated data and the classification parameter d from our analysis. This correlation still held for new simulated subjects with new dynamical parameters selected from each of the two dynamical regimes. Furthermore, the correlation was robust to added noise, being significant even when the noise was greater than the signal. We conclude that DDE models may be used as a generalizable and reliable classification tool for even small segments of noisy data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3825183','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3825183"><span>Non-Linear Dynamical Classification of Short Time Series of the Rössler System in High Noise Regimes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lainscsek, Claudia; Weyhenmeyer, Jonathan; Hernandez, Manuel E.; Poizner, Howard; Sejnowski, Terrence J.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Time series analysis with delay differential equations (DDEs) reveals non-linear properties of the underlying dynamical system and can serve as a non-linear time-domain classification tool. Here global DDE models were used to analyze short segments of simulated time series from a known dynamical system, the Rössler system, in high noise regimes. In a companion paper, we apply the DDE model developed here to classify short segments of encephalographic (EEG) data recorded from patients with Parkinson’s disease and healthy subjects. Nine simulated subjects in each of two distinct classes were generated by varying the bifurcation parameter b and keeping the other two parameters (a and c) of the Rössler system fixed. All choices of b were in the chaotic parameter range. We diluted the simulated data using white noise ranging from 10 to −30 dB signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Structure selection was supervised by selecting the number of terms, delays, and order of non-linearity of the model DDE model that best linearly separated the two classes of data. The distances d from the linear dividing hyperplane was then used to assess the classification performance by computing the area A′ under the ROC curve. The selected model was tested on untrained data using repeated random sub-sampling validation. DDEs were able to accurately distinguish the two dynamical conditions, and moreover, to quantify the changes in the dynamics. There was a significant correlation between the dynamical bifurcation parameter b of the simulated data and the classification parameter d from our analysis. This correlation still held for new simulated subjects with new dynamical parameters selected from each of the two dynamical regimes. Furthermore, the correlation was robust to added noise, being significant even when the noise was greater than the signal. We conclude that DDE models may be used as a generalizable and reliable classification tool for even small segments of noisy data. PMID:24379798</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=242921','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=242921"><span>Economic efficiency of short-term versus long-term water rights buyouts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Because of the decline of the Ogallala Aquifer, water districts, regional water managers, and state water officers are becoming increasingly interested in conservation policies. This study evaluates both short-term and long-term water rights buyout policies. This research develops dynamic production...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28799658','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28799658"><span>Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Chaos..28e5906A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Chaos..28e5906A"><span>The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29857666','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29857666"><span>The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26189566','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26189566"><span>Neuroticism and conscientiousness respectively constrain and facilitate short-term plasticity within the working memory neural network.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dima, Danai; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E; Frangou, Sophia</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Individual differences in cognitive efficiency, particularly in relation to working memory (WM), have been associated both with personality dimensions that reflect enduring regularities in brain configuration, and with short-term neural plasticity, that reflects task-related changes in brain connectivity. To elucidate the relationship of these two divergent mechanisms, we tested the hypothesis that personality dimensions, which reflect enduring aspects of brain configuration, inform about the neurobiological framework within which short-term, task-related plasticity, as measured by effective connectivity, can be facilitated or constrained. As WM consistently engages the dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC), parietal (PAR), and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), we specified a WM network model with bidirectional, ipsilateral, and contralateral connections between these regions from a functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset obtained from 40 healthy adults while performing the 3-back WM task. Task-related effective connectivity changes within this network were estimated using Dynamic Causal Modelling. Personality was evaluated along the major dimensions of Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness. Only two dimensions were relevant to task-dependent effective connectivity. Neuroticism and Conscientiousness respectively constrained and facilitated neuroplastic responses within the WM network. These results suggest individual differences in cognitive efficiency arise from the interplay between enduring and short-term plasticity in brain configuration. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/14012','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/14012"><span>Short-term dynamics of second-growth mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Cynthia C. Huebner; Steven L. Stephenson; Harold S. Adams; Gary W. Miller</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The short-term dynamics of mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia were examined using similarity analysis and linear correlation of shared ordination space. The overstory tree, understory tree, shrub/vine, and herb strata were stable over a six year interval, whereas the tree seedling and sapling strata were unstable. All strata but the shrub/vine and tree...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=cognitive+AND+therapy&pg=7&id=EJ952841','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=cognitive+AND+therapy&pg=7&id=EJ952841"><span>The Achievement of Therapeutic Objectives Scale: Interrater Reliability and Sensitivity to Change in Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy and Cognitive Therapy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Valen, Jakob; Ryum, Truls; Svartberg, Martin; Stiles, Tore C.; McCullough, Leigh</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>This study examined interrater reliability and sensitivity to change of the Achievement of Therapeutic Objectives Scale (ATOS; McCullough, Larsen, et al., 2003) in short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) and cognitive therapy (CT). The ATOS is a process scale originally developed to assess patients' achievements of treatment objectives in STDP,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006MeScT..17.3066P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006MeScT..17.3066P"><span>A processing architecture for associative short-term memory in electronic noses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pioggia, G.; Ferro, M.; Di Francesco, F.; DeRossi, D.</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>Electronic nose (e-nose) architectures usually consist of several modules that process various tasks such as control, data acquisition, data filtering, feature selection and pattern analysis. Heterogeneous techniques derived from chemometrics, neural networks, and fuzzy rules used to implement such tasks may lead to issues concerning module interconnection and cooperation. Moreover, a new learning phase is mandatory once new measurements have been added to the dataset, thus causing changes in the previously derived model. Consequently, if a loss in the previous learning occurs (catastrophic interference), real-time applications of e-noses are limited. To overcome these problems this paper presents an architecture for dynamic and efficient management of multi-transducer data processing techniques and for saving an associative short-term memory of the previously learned model. The architecture implements an artificial model of a hippocampus-based working memory, enabling the system to be ready for real-time applications. Starting from the base models available in the architecture core, dedicated models for neurons, maps and connections were tailored to an artificial olfactory system devoted to analysing olive oil. In order to verify the ability of the processing architecture in associative and short-term memory, a paired-associate learning test was applied. The avoidance of catastrophic interference was observed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhDT.......110J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhDT.......110J"><span>Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jin, Xin</p> <p></p> <p>Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25534671','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25534671"><span>Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRA..121.3621P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRA..121.3621P"><span>Short-term nonmigrating tide variability in the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pedatella, N. M.; Oberheide, J.; Sutton, E. K.; Liu, H.-L.; Anderson, J. L.; Raeder, K.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The intraseasonal variability of the eastward propagating nonmigrating diurnal tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3) during 2007 in the mesosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere is investigated using a whole atmosphere model reanalysis and satellite observations. The atmospheric reanalysis is based on implementation of data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble Kalman filter. The tidal variability in the WACCM+DART reanalysis is compared to the observed variability in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) based on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) observations, in the ionosphere based on Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations, and in the upper thermosphere (˜475 km) based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) neutral density observations. To obtain the short-term DE3 variability in the MLT and upper thermosphere, we apply the method of tidal deconvolution to the TIMED/SABER observations and consider the difference in the ascending and descending longitudinal wave number 4 structure in the GRACE observations. The results reveal that tidal amplitude changes of 5-10 K regularly occur on short timescales (˜10-20 days) in the MLT. Similar variability occurs in the WACCM+DART reanalysis and TIMED/SABER observations, demonstrating that the short-term variability can be captured in whole atmosphere models that employ data assimilation and in observations by the technique of tidal deconvolution. The impact of the short-term DE3 variability in the MLT on the ionosphere and thermosphere is also clearly evident in the COSMIC and GRACE observations. Analysis of the troposphere forcing in WACCM+DART and simulations of the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM) show that the short-term DE3 variability in the MLT is not related to a single source; rather, it is due to a combination of changes in troposphere forcing, zonal mean atmosphere, and wave-wave interactions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26003630','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26003630"><span>Social evolution and genetic interactions in the short and long term.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Van Cleve, Jeremy</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>The evolution of social traits remains one of the most fascinating and feisty topics in evolutionary biology even after half a century of theoretical research. W.D. Hamilton shaped much of the field initially with his 1964 papers that laid out the foundation for understanding the effect of genetic relatedness on the evolution of social behavior. Early theoretical investigations revealed two critical assumptions required for Hamilton's rule to hold in dynamical models: weak selection and additive genetic interactions. However, only recently have analytical approaches from population genetics and evolutionary game theory developed sufficiently so that social evolution can be studied under the joint action of selection, mutation, and genetic drift. We review how these approaches suggest two timescales for evolution under weak mutation: (i) a short-term timescale where evolution occurs between a finite set of alleles, and (ii) a long-term timescale where a continuum of alleles are possible and populations evolve continuously from one monomorphic trait to another. We show how Hamilton's rule emerges from the short-term analysis under additivity and how non-additive genetic interactions can be accounted for more generally. This short-term approach reproduces, synthesizes, and generalizes many previous results including the one-third law from evolutionary game theory and risk dominance from economic game theory. Using the long-term approach, we illustrate how trait evolution can be described with a diffusion equation that is a stochastic analogue of the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. Peaks in the stationary distribution of the diffusion capture classic notions of convergence stability from evolutionary game theory and generally depend on the additive genetic interactions inherent in Hamilton's rule. Surprisingly, the peaks of the long-term stationary distribution can predict the effects of simple kinds of non-additive interactions. Additionally, the peaks capture both weak and strong effects of social payoffs in a manner difficult to replicate with the short-term approach. Together, the results from the short and long-term approaches suggest both how Hamilton's insight may be robust in unexpected ways and how current analytical approaches can expand our understanding of social evolution far beyond Hamilton's original work. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28273856','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28273856"><span>Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian</p> <p>2017-03-04</p> <p>Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B13D0622B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B13D0622B"><span>Diflerent formulations of microbial respiratory losses and microbial efficiency have pronounced short and long term consequences for soil C dynamics and soil respiration</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ballantyne, F.; Billings, S. A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Much of the variability in projections of Earth's future C balance derives from uncertainty in how to formulate and parameterize models of biologically mediated transformations of soil organic C (SOC). Over the past decade, models of belowground decomposition have incorporated more realism, namely microbial biomass and exoenzyme pools, but it remains unclear whether microbially mediated decomposition is accurately formulated. Different models and different assumptions about how microbial efficiency, defined in terms of respiratory losses, varies with temperature exert great influence on SOC and CO2 flux projections for the future. Here, we incorporate a physiologically realistic formulation of CO2 loss from microbes, distinct from extant formulations and logically consistent with microbial C uptake and losses, into belowground dynamics and contrast its projections for SOC pools and CO2 flux from soils to those from the phenomenological formulations of efficiency in current models. We quantitatively describe how short and long term SOC dynamics are influenced by different mathematical formulations of efficiency, and that our lack of knowledge regarding loss rates from SOC and microbial biomass pools, specific respiration rate and maximum substrate uptake rate severely constrains our ability to confidently parameterize microbial SOC modules in Earth System Models. Both steady-state SOC and microbial biomass C pools, as well as transient responses to perturbations, can differ substantially depending on how microbial efficiency is derived. In particular, the discrepancy between SOC stocks for different formulations of efficiency varies from negligible to more than two orders of magnitude, depending on the relative values of respiratory versus non-respiratory losses from microbial biomass. Mass-specific respiration and proportional loss rates from soil microbes emerge as key determinants of the consequences of different formulations of efficiency for C flux in soils.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_6 --> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29758664','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29758664"><span>Stabilization of dynamics of oscillatory systems by nonautonomous perturbation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lucas, Maxime; Newman, Julian; Stefanovska, Aneta</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Synchronization and stability under periodic oscillatory driving are well understood, but little is known about the effects of aperiodic driving, despite its abundance in nature. Here, we consider oscillators subject to driving with slowly varying frequency, and investigate both short-term and long-term stability properties. For a phase oscillator, we find that, counterintuitively, such variation is guaranteed to enlarge the Arnold tongue in parameter space. Using analytical and numerical methods that provide information on time-variable dynamical properties, we find that the growth of the Arnold tongue is specifically due to the growth of a region of intermittent synchronization where trajectories alternate between short-term stability and short-term neutral stability, giving rise to stability on average. We also present examples of higher-dimensional nonlinear oscillators where a similar stabilization phenomenon is numerically observed. Our findings help support the case that in general, deterministic nonautonomous perturbation is a very good candidate for stabilizing complex dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97d2209L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97d2209L"><span>Stabilization of dynamics of oscillatory systems by nonautonomous perturbation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, Maxime; Newman, Julian; Stefanovska, Aneta</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Synchronization and stability under periodic oscillatory driving are well understood, but little is known about the effects of aperiodic driving, despite its abundance in nature. Here, we consider oscillators subject to driving with slowly varying frequency, and investigate both short-term and long-term stability properties. For a phase oscillator, we find that, counterintuitively, such variation is guaranteed to enlarge the Arnold tongue in parameter space. Using analytical and numerical methods that provide information on time-variable dynamical properties, we find that the growth of the Arnold tongue is specifically due to the growth of a region of intermittent synchronization where trajectories alternate between short-term stability and short-term neutral stability, giving rise to stability on average. We also present examples of higher-dimensional nonlinear oscillators where a similar stabilization phenomenon is numerically observed. Our findings help support the case that in general, deterministic nonautonomous perturbation is a very good candidate for stabilizing complex dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22710936','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22710936"><span>Neuromodulatory changes in short-term synaptic dynamics may be mediated by two distinct mechanisms of presynaptic calcium entry.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Oh, Myongkeun; Zhao, Shunbing; Matveev, Victor; Nadim, Farzan</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Although synaptic output is known to be modulated by changes in presynaptic calcium channels, additional pathways for calcium entry into the presynaptic terminal, such as non-selective channels, could contribute to modulation of short term synaptic dynamics. We address this issue using computational modeling. The neuropeptide proctolin modulates the inhibitory synapse from the lateral pyloric (LP) to the pyloric dilator (PD) neuron, two slow-wave bursting neurons in the pyloric network of the crab Cancer borealis. Proctolin enhances the strength of this synapse and also changes its dynamics. Whereas in control saline the synapse shows depression independent of the amplitude of the presynaptic LP signal, in proctolin, with high-amplitude presynaptic LP stimulation the synapse remains depressing while low-amplitude stimulation causes facilitation. We use simple calcium-dependent release models to explore two alternative mechanisms underlying these modulatory effects. In the first model, proctolin directly targets calcium channels by changing their activation kinetics which results in gradual accumulation of calcium with low-amplitude presynaptic stimulation, leading to facilitation. The second model uses the fact that proctolin is known to activate a non-specific cation current I ( MI ). In this model, we assume that the MI channels have some permeability to calcium, modeled to be a result of slow conformation change after binding calcium. This generates a gradual increase in calcium influx into the presynaptic terminals through the modulatory channel similar to that described in the first model. Each of these models can explain the modulation of the synapse by proctolin but with different consequences for network activity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2316151','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2316151"><span>Frequency-selective augmenting responses by short-term synaptic depression in cat neocortex</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Houweling, Arthur R; Bazhenov, Maxim; Timofeev, Igor; Grenier, François; Steriade, Mircea; Sejnowski, Terrence J</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Thalamic stimulation at frequencies between 5 and 15 Hz elicits incremental or ‘augmenting’ cortical responses. Augmenting responses can also be evoked in cortical slices and isolated cortical slabs in vivo. Here we show that a realistic network model of cortical pyramidal cells and interneurones including short-term plasticity of inhibitory and excitatory synapses replicates the main features of augmenting responses as obtained in isolated slabs in vivo. Repetitive stimulation of synaptic inputs at frequencies around 10 Hz produced postsynaptic potentials that grew in size and carried an increasing number of action potentials resulting from the depression of inhibitory synaptic currents. Frequency selectivity was obtained through the relatively weak depression of inhibitory synapses at low frequencies, and strong depression of excitatory synapses together with activation of a calcium-activated potassium current at high frequencies. This network resonance is a consequence of short-term synaptic plasticity in a network of neurones without intrinsic resonances. These results suggest that short-term plasticity of cortical synapses could shape the dynamics of synchronized oscillations in the brain. PMID:12122156</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2290398','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2290398"><span>Cell type dependence and variability in the short-term plasticity of EPSCs in identified mouse hippocampal interneurones</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Losonczy, Attila; Zhang, Limei; Shigemoto, Ryuichi; Somogyi, Peter; Nusser, Zoltan</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Synapses exhibit different short-term plasticity patterns and this behaviour influences information processing in neuronal networks. We tested how the short-term plasticity of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) depends on the postsynaptic cell type, identified by axonal arborizations and molecular markers in the hippocampal CA1 area. Three distinct types of short-term synaptic behaviour (facilitating, depressing and combined facilitating–depressing) were defined by fitting a dynamic neurotransmission model to the data. Approximately 75 % of the oriens-lacunosum-moleculare (O-LM) interneurones received facilitating EPSCs, but in three of 12 O-LM cells EPSCs also showed significant depression. Over 90 % of the O-LM cells were immunopositive for somatostatin and mGluR1α and all tested cells were decorated by strongly mGluR7a positive axon terminals. Responses in eight of 12 basket cells were described well with a model involving only depression, but the other cells displayed combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. No apparent difference was found between the plasticity of EPSCs in cholecystokinin- or parvalbumin-containing basket cells. In oriens-bistratified cells (O-Bi), two of nine cells showed facilitating EPSCs, another two depressing, and the remaining five cells combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. Seven of 10 cells tested for somatostatin were immunopositive, but mGluR1α was detectable only in two of 11 tested cells. Furthermore, most O-Bi cells projected to the CA3 area and the subiculum, as well as outside the hippocampal formation. Postsynaptic responses to action potentials recorded in vivo from a CA1 place cell were modelled, and revealed great differences between and within cell types. Our results demonstrate that the short-term plasticity of EPSCs is cell type dependent, but with significant heterogeneity within all three interneurone populations. PMID:12096061</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvE..87b3012K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvE..87b3012K"><span>One-dimensional model of inertial pumping</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kornilovitch, Pavel E.; Govyadinov, Alexander N.; Markel, David P.; Torniainen, Erik D.</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>A one-dimensional model of inertial pumping is introduced and solved. The pump is driven by a high-pressure vapor bubble generated by a microheater positioned asymmetrically in a microchannel. The bubble is approximated as a short-term impulse delivered to the two fluidic columns inside the channel. Fluid dynamics is described by a Newton-like equation with a variable mass, but without the mass derivative term. Because of smaller inertia, the short column refills the channel faster and accumulates a larger mechanical momentum. After bubble collapse the total fluid momentum is nonzero, resulting in a net flow. Two different versions of the model are analyzed in detail, analytically and numerically. In the symmetrical model, the pressure at the channel-reservoir connection plane is assumed constant, whereas in the asymmetrical model it is reduced by a Bernoulli term. For low and intermediate vapor bubble pressures, both models predict the existence of an optimal microheater location. The predicted net flow in the asymmetrical model is smaller by a factor of about 2. For unphysically large vapor pressures, the asymmetrical model predicts saturation of the effect, while in the symmetrical model net flow increases indefinitely. Pumping is reduced by nonzero viscosity, but to a different degree depending on the microheater location.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23496615','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23496615"><span>One-dimensional model of inertial pumping.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kornilovitch, Pavel E; Govyadinov, Alexander N; Markel, David P; Torniainen, Erik D</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>A one-dimensional model of inertial pumping is introduced and solved. The pump is driven by a high-pressure vapor bubble generated by a microheater positioned asymmetrically in a microchannel. The bubble is approximated as a short-term impulse delivered to the two fluidic columns inside the channel. Fluid dynamics is described by a Newton-like equation with a variable mass, but without the mass derivative term. Because of smaller inertia, the short column refills the channel faster and accumulates a larger mechanical momentum. After bubble collapse the total fluid momentum is nonzero, resulting in a net flow. Two different versions of the model are analyzed in detail, analytically and numerically. In the symmetrical model, the pressure at the channel-reservoir connection plane is assumed constant, whereas in the asymmetrical model it is reduced by a Bernoulli term. For low and intermediate vapor bubble pressures, both models predict the existence of an optimal microheater location. The predicted net flow in the asymmetrical model is smaller by a factor of about 2. For unphysically large vapor pressures, the asymmetrical model predicts saturation of the effect, while in the symmetrical model net flow increases indefinitely. Pumping is reduced by nonzero viscosity, but to a different degree depending on the microheater location.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM44A..04G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSM44A..04G"><span>Inner Radiation Belt Dynamics and Climatology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, P. P.; Looper, M. D.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>We present preliminary results of inner belt proton data assimilation using an augmented version of the Selesnick et al. Inner Zone Model (SIZM). By varying modeled physics parameters and solar particle injection parameters to generate many ensembles of the inner belt, then optimizing the ensemble weights according to inner belt observations from SAMPEX/PET at LEO and HEO/DOS at high altitude, we obtain the best-fit state of the inner belt. We need to fully sample the range of solar proton injection sources among the ensemble members to ensure reasonable agreement between the model ensembles and observations. Once this is accomplished, we find the method is fairly robust. We will demonstrate the data assimilation by presenting an extended interval of solar proton injections and losses, illustrating how these short-term dynamics dominate long-term inner belt climatology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=4&id=EJ1018768','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=4&id=EJ1018768"><span>Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22342970','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22342970"><span>VLSI circuits implementing computational models of neocortical circuits.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wijekoon, Jayawan H B; Dudek, Piotr</p> <p>2012-09-15</p> <p>This paper overviews the design and implementation of three neuromorphic integrated circuits developed for the COLAMN ("Novel Computing Architecture for Cognitive Systems based on the Laminar Microcircuitry of the Neocortex") project. The circuits are implemented in a standard 0.35 μm CMOS technology and include spiking and bursting neuron models, and synapses with short-term (facilitating/depressing) and long-term (STDP and dopamine-modulated STDP) dynamics. They enable execution of complex nonlinear models in accelerated-time, as compared with biology, and with low power consumption. The neural dynamics are implemented using analogue circuit techniques, with digital asynchronous event-based input and output. The circuits provide configurable hardware blocks that can be used to simulate a variety of neural networks. The paper presents experimental results obtained from the fabricated devices, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the analogue circuit approach to computational neural modelling. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813527B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813527B"><span>Water age and stream solute dynamics at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (US)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Botter, Gianluca; Benettin, Paolo; McGuire, Kevin; Rinaldo, Andrea</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The contribution discusses experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA) to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is used to model both conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to estimate the relevant hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). Within this framework, dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow were simulated by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation at Hubbard Brook. The analysis of the results provided by the calibrated model allowed a robust estimate of the emerging concentration-discharge relationship, streamflow age distributions (including the fraction of event water) and storage size, and their evolution in time due to hydrologic variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5095374','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5095374"><span>Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27798295','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27798295"><span>Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lion, S; Gandon, S</p> <p>2016-10-26</p> <p>Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27652164','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27652164"><span>Identifying attachment ruptures underlying severe music performance anxiety in a professional musician undertaking an assessment and trial therapy of Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy (ISTDP).</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kenny, Dianna T; Arthey, Stephen; Abbass, Allan</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Kenny has proposed that severe music performance anxiety that is unresponsive to usual treatments such as cognitive-behaviour therapy may be one manifestation of unresolved attachment ruptures in early life. Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy specifically targets early relationship trauma. Accordingly, a trial of Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy with severely anxious musicians was implemented to assess whether resolution of attachment ruptures resulted in clinically significant relief from music performance anxiety. Volunteer musicians participating in a nationally funded study were screened for MPA severity. Those meeting the critical cut-off score on the Kenny Music Performance Anxiety Inventory were offered a trial of Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy. In this paper, we present the theoretical foundations and rationale for the treatment approach, followed by sections of a verbatim transcript and process analysis of the assessment phase of treatment that comprised a 3-h trial therapy session. The 'case' was a professional orchestral musician (male, aged 55) who had suffered severe music performance anxiety over the course of his entire career, which spanned more than 30 years at the time he presented for treatment following his failure to secure a position at audition. The participant was able to access the pain, rage and grief associated with unresolved attachment ruptures with both parents that demonstrated the likely nexus between early attachment trauma and severe music performance anxiety. Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy is a potentially cost-effective treatment for severe music performance anxiety. Further research using designs with higher levels of evidence are required before clinical recommendations can be made for the use of this therapy with this population.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28201834','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28201834"><span>Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5773285','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5773285"><span>Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. PMID:28201834</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4191087','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4191087"><span>Exploiting short-term memory in soft body dynamics as a computational resource</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Nakajima, K.; Li, T.; Hauser, H.; Pfeifer, R.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Soft materials are not only highly deformable, but they also possess rich and diverse body dynamics. Soft body dynamics exhibit a variety of properties, including nonlinearity, elasticity and potentially infinitely many degrees of freedom. Here, we demonstrate that such soft body dynamics can be employed to conduct certain types of computation. Using body dynamics generated from a soft silicone arm, we show that they can be exploited to emulate functions that require memory and to embed robust closed-loop control into the arm. Our results suggest that soft body dynamics have a short-term memory and can serve as a computational resource. This finding paves the way towards exploiting passive body dynamics for control of a large class of underactuated systems. PMID:25185579</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.S22C..01J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.S22C..01J"><span>Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of distance, time, and magnitude is needed. Third, earthquake catalogs contain errors in location and magnitude that may be corrected in later editions. One solution is to test models in “pseudo-prospective” mode (after catalog revision but without model adjustment). Again, appropriate for science but not for response. Hopefully, demonstrations of modeling success will stimulate improvements in earthquake detection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MS%26E..149a2107C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MS%26E..149a2107C"><span>Flexural creep behaviour of jute polypropylene composites</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chandekar, Harichandra; Chaudhari, Vikas</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Present study is about the flexural creep behaviour of jute fabric reinforced polypropylene (Jute-PP) composites. The PP sheet and alkali treated jute fabric is stacked alternately and hot pressed in compression molding machine to get Jute-PP composite laminate. The flexural creep study is carried out on dynamic mechanical analyzer. The creep behaviour of the composite is modeled using four-parameter Burgers model. Short-term accelerated creep testing is conducted which is later used to predict long term creep behaviour. The feasibility of the construction of a master curve using the time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle to predict long term creep behavior of unreinforced PP and Jute-PP composite is investigated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JSMTE..07..020Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JSMTE..07..020Z"><span>Modeling mutual feedback between users and recommender systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Recommender systems daily influence our decisions on the Internet. While considerable attention has been given to issues such as recommendation accuracy and user privacy, the long-term mutual feedback between a recommender system and the decisions of its users has been neglected so far. We propose here a model of network evolution which allows us to study the complex dynamics induced by this feedback, including the hysteresis effect which is typical for systems with non-linear dynamics. Despite the popular belief that recommendation helps users to discover new things, we find that the long-term use of recommendation can contribute to the rise of extremely popular items and thus ultimately narrow the user choice. These results are supported by measurements of the time evolution of item popularity inequality in real systems. We show that this adverse effect of recommendation can be tamed by sacrificing part of short-term recommendation accuracy.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1210972P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1210972P"><span>Introducing litter quality to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS: Effects on short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Portner, Hanspeter; Wolf, Annett; Rühr, Nadine; Bugmann, Harald</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Many biogeochemical models have been applied to study the response of the carbon cycle to changes in climate, whereby the process of carbon uptake (photosynthesis) has usually gained more attention than the equally important process of carbon release by respiration. The decomposition of soil organic matter is driven by a combination of factors like soil temperature, soil moisture and litter quality. We have introduced dependence on litter substrate quality to heterotrophic soil respiration in the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS [Smith et al.(2001)]. We were interested in differences in model projections before and after the inclusion of the dependency both in respect to short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics. The standard implementation of heterotrophic soil respiration in LPJ-GUESS is a simple carbon three-pool model whose decay rates are dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. We have added dependence on litter quality by coupling LPJ-GUESS to the soil carbon model Yasso07 [Tuomi et al.(2008)]. The Yasso07 model is based on an extensive number of measurements of litter decomposition of forest soils. Apart from the dependence on soil temperature and soil moisture, the Yasso07 model uses carbon soil pools representing different substrate qualities: acid hydrolyzable, water soluble, ethanol soluble, lignin compounds and humus. Additionally Yasso07 differentiates between woody and non-woody litter. In contrary to the reference implementation of LPJ-GUESS, in the new model implementation, the litter now is divided according to its specific quality and added to the corresponding soil carbon pool. The litter quality thereby differs between litter source (leaves, roots, stems) and plant functional type (broadleaved, needleleaved, grass). The two contrasting model implementations were compared and validated at one specific CarboEuropeIP site (Lägern, Switzerland) and on a broader scale all over Switzerland. Our focus lay on the soil respiration for the years 2006 and 2007 [Rühr(2009)] and present soil carbon stocks [Heim et al.(2009)]. Our Results show, that for short-term soil carbon dynamics, e.g. estimates of heterotrophic soil respiration on an annual basis, the inclusion of the dependency on litter quality is not necessary, as the differences are minor only. However, when considering long-term soil carbon dynamics, e.g. simulated estimates of present soil carbon content, the dependency on litter quality shows effect, as there are correlations with specific site factors such as site location and forest type. The inclusion of the dependence on litter quality therefore may be of importance for the projection of future soil carbon dynamics, as forest types may well be altered due to climatic change. References [Heim et al.(2009)] A. Heim, L. Wehrli, W. Eugster, and M.W.I. Schmidt. Effects of sampling design on the probability to detect soil carbon stock changes at the swiss CarboEurope site Lägeren. Geoderma, 149(3-4):347-354, 2009. [Rühr(2009)] Nadine Katrin Rühr. Soil respiration in a mixed mountain forest : environmental drivers and partitioning of component fluxes. PhD thesis, ETH, 2009. [Smith et al.(2001)] Benjamin Smith, I. Colin Prentice, and Martin T. Sykes. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within european climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10(6):621-637, 2001. [Tuomi et al.(2008)] Mikko Tuomi, Pekka Vanhala, Kristiina Karhu, Hannu Fritze, and Jari Liski. Heterotrophic soil respiration-Comparison of different models describing its temperature dependence. Ecological Modelling, 211(1-2): 182-190, 2008.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3786371','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3786371"><span>Conversion of short-term to long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Moore, Shannon J.; Deshpande, Kaivalya; Stinnett, Gwen S.; Seasholtz, Audrey F.; Murphy, Geoffrey G.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>It is well-known that stress can significantly impact learning; however, whether this effect facilitates or impairs the resultant memory depends on the characteristics of the stressor. Investigation of these dynamics can be confounded by the role of the stressor in motivating performance in a task. Positing a cohesive model of the effect of stress on learning and memory necessitates elucidating the consequences of stressful stimuli independently from task-specific functions. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine the effect of manipulating a task-independent stressor (elevated light level) on short-term and long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm. Short-term memory was elicited in both low light and high light conditions, but long-term memory specifically required high light conditions during the acquisition phase (familiarization trial) and was independent of the light level during retrieval (test trial). Additionally, long-term memory appeared to be independent of stress-mediated glucocorticoid release, as both low and high light produced similar levels of plasma corticosterone, which further did not correlate with subsequent memory performance. Finally, both short-term and long-term memory showed no savings between repeated experiments suggesting that this novel object recognition paradigm may be useful for longitudinal studies, particularly when investigating treatments to stabilize or enhance weak memories in neurodegenerative diseases or during age-related cognitive decline. PMID:23835143</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23835143','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23835143"><span>Conversion of short-term to long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Moore, Shannon J; Deshpande, Kaivalya; Stinnett, Gwen S; Seasholtz, Audrey F; Murphy, Geoffrey G</p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>It is well-known that stress can significantly impact learning; however, whether this effect facilitates or impairs the resultant memory depends on the characteristics of the stressor. Investigation of these dynamics can be confounded by the role of the stressor in motivating performance in a task. Positing a cohesive model of the effect of stress on learning and memory necessitates elucidating the consequences of stressful stimuli independently from task-specific functions. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine the effect of manipulating a task-independent stressor (elevated light level) on short-term and long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm. Short-term memory was elicited in both low light and high light conditions, but long-term memory specifically required high light conditions during the acquisition phase (familiarization trial) and was independent of the light level during retrieval (test trial). Additionally, long-term memory appeared to be independent of stress-mediated glucocorticoid release, as both low and high light produced similar levels of plasma corticosterone, which further did not correlate with subsequent memory performance. Finally, both short-term and long-term memory showed no savings between repeated experiments suggesting that this novel object recognition paradigm may be useful for longitudinal studies, particularly when investigating treatments to stabilize or enhance weak memories in neurodegenerative diseases or during age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70169225','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70169225"><span>Uncertainty in the fate of soil organic carbon: A comparison of three conceptually different soil decomposition models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, A. David; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Yaling; Teskey, Robert O.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Conventional Q10 soil organic matter decomposition models and more complex microbial models are available for making projections of future soil carbon dynamics. However, it is unclear (1) how well the conceptually different approaches can simulate observed decomposition and (2) to what extent the trajectories of long-term simulations differ when using the different approaches. In this study, we compared three structurally different soil carbon (C) decomposition models (one Q10 and two microbial models of different complexity), each with a one- and two-horizon version. The models were calibrated and validated using 4 years of measurements of heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux from trenched plots in a Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantation. All models reproduced the observed heterotrophic component of soil CO2 efflux, but the trajectories of soil carbon dynamics differed substantially in 100 year simulations with and without warming and increased litterfall input, with microbial models that produced better agreement with observed changes in soil organic C in long-term warming experiments. Our results also suggest that both constant and varying carbon use efficiency are plausible when modeling future decomposition dynamics and that the use of a short-term (e.g., a few years) period of measurement is insufficient to adequately constrain model parameters that represent long-term responses of microbial thermal adaption. These results highlight the need to reframe the representation of decomposition models and to constrain parameters with long-term observations and multiple data streams. We urge caution in interpreting future soil carbon responses derived from existing decomposition models because both conceptual and parameter uncertainties are substantial.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1493..446H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1493..446H"><span>Periodicity in cell dynamics in some mathematical models for the treatment of leukemia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Halanay, A.</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>A model for the evolution of short-term hematopoietic stem cells and of leukocytes in leucemia under periodic treatment is introduced. It consists of a system of periodic delay differential equations and takes into consideration the asymmetric division. A guiding function is used, together with a theorem of Krasnoselskii, to prove the existence of a strictly positive periodic solution and its stability is investigated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70123860','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70123860"><span>Short-term vegetation response following mechanical control of saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) on the Virgin River, Nevada, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Ostoja, Steven M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Dudley, Tom; Lee, Steven R.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>and species diversity were very low, suggesting that targets of restoring vegetation to pre-invasion conditions were not met. Longer evaluation periods are needed to adequately evaluate how short-term post-treatment patterns translate to long-term patterns of plant community dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18229834','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18229834"><span>Consequences of stage-structured predators: cannibalism, behavioral effects, and trophic cascades.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rudolf, Volker H W</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>Cannibalistic and asymmetrical behavioral interactions between stages are common within stage-structured predator populations. Such direct interactions between predator stages can result in density- and trait-mediated indirect interactions between a predator and its prey. A set of structured predator-prey models is used to explore how such indirect interactions affect the dynamics and structure of communities. Analyses of the separate and combined effects of stage-structured cannibalism and behavior-mediated avoidance of cannibals under different ecological scenarios show that both cannibalism and behavioral avoidance of cannibalism can result in short- and long-term positive indirect connections between predator stages and the prey, including "apparent mutualism." These positive interactions alter the strength of trophic cascades such that the system's dynamics are determined by the interaction between bottom-up and top-down effects. Contrary to the expectation of simpler models, enrichment increases both predator and prey abundance in systems with cannibalism or behavioral avoidance of cannibalism. The effect of behavioral avoidance of cannibalism, however, depends on how strongly it affects the maturation rate of the predator. Behavioral interactions between predator stages reduce the short-term positive effect of cannibalism on the prey density, but can enhance its positive long-term effects. Both interaction types reduce the destabilizing effect of enrichment. These results suggest that inconsistencies between data and simple models can be resolved by accounting for stage-structured interactions within and among species.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...620740O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...620740O"><span>Decisions in Motion: Decision Dynamics during Intertemporal Choice reflect Subjective Evaluation of Delayed Rewards</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>O'Hora, Denis; Carey, Rachel; Kervick, Aoife; Crowley, David; Dabrowski, Maciej</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>People tend to discount rewards or losses that occur in the future. Such delay discounting has been linked to many behavioral and health problems, since people choose smaller short-term gains over greater long-term gains. We investigated whether the effect of delays on the subjective value of rewards is expressed in how people move when they make choices. Over 600 patrons of the RISK LAB exhibition hosted by the Science Gallery DublinTM played a short computer game in which they used a computer mouse to choose between amounts of money at various delays. Typical discounting effects were observed and decision dynamics indicated that choosing smaller short-term rewards became easier (i.e., shorter response times, tighter trajectories, less vacillation) as the delays until later rewards increased. Based on a sequence of choices, subjective values of delayed outcomes were estimated and decision dynamics during initial choices predicted these values. Decision dynamics are affected by subjective values of available options and thus provide a means to estimate such values.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H51B1267P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H51B1267P"><span>Is there a `universal' dynamic zero-parameter hydrological model? Evaluation of a dynamic Budyko model in US and India</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Patnaik, S.; Biswal, B.; Sharma, V. C.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>River flow varies greatly in space and time, and the single biggest challenge for hydrologists and ecologists around the world is the fact that most rivers are either ungauged or poorly gauged. Although it is relatively easier to predict long-term average flow of a river using the `universal' zero-parameter Budyko model, lack of data hinders short-term flow prediction at ungauged locations using traditional hydrological models as they require observed flow data for model calibration. Flow prediction in ungauged basins thus requires a dynamic 'zero-parameter' hydrological model. One way to achieve this is to regionalize a dynamic hydrological model's parameters. However, a regionalization method based zero-parameter dynamic hydrological model is not `universal'. An alternative attempt was made recently to develop a zero-parameter dynamic model by defining an instantaneous dryness index as a function of antecedent rainfall and solar energy inputs with the help of a decay function and using the original Budyko function. The model was tested first in 63 US catchments and later in 50 Indian catchments. The median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was found to be close to 0.4 in both the cases. Although improvements need to be incorporated in order to use the model for reliable prediction, the main aim of this study was to rather understand hydrological processes. The overall results here seem to suggest that the dynamic zero-parameter Budyko model is `universal.' In other words natural catchments around the world are strikingly similar to each other in the way they respond to hydrologic inputs; we thus need to focus more on utilizing catchment similarities in hydrological modelling instead of over parameterizing our models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2783717','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2783717"><span>Short Term Gains, Long Term Pains: How Cues About State Aid Learning in Dynamic Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Successful investors seeking returns, animals foraging for food, and pilots controlling aircraft all must take into account how their current decisions will impact their future standing. One challenge facing decision makers is that options that appear attractive in the short-term may not turn out best in the long run. In this paper, we explore human learning in a dynamic decision-making task which places short- and long-term rewards in conflict. Our goal in these studies was to evaluate how people’s mental representation of a task affects their ability to discover an optimal decision strategy. We find that perceptual cues that readily align with the underlying state of the task environment help people overcome the impulsive appeal of short-term rewards. Our experimental manipulations, predictions, and analyses are motivated by current work in reinforcement learning which details how learners value delayed outcomes in sequential tasks and the importance that “state” identification plays in effective learning. PMID:19427635</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA370781','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA370781"><span>Simulation of Thrust-Vectored Aircraft Maneuvers on a Human Centrifuge: Model Validation and Design for the Dynamic Environment Simulator</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>1998-09-01</p> <p>reviewed and is approved for publication. FOR THE DIRECTOR ROGER L. STORK , Colonel, USAF, BSC Chief, Biodynamics and Protection Division Air Force Research...possible disorienting stimuli. Short radius yaw rotational movements that occur in helicopter flight and vertical take off and landing (VTOL) fixed wing ... wing flight. Aeronautical terms and thought has evolved. Tactical concepts, once thought inviolate, are changing. New terms are emerging and the very</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27100331','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27100331"><span>Dynamic adjustment in agricultural practices to economic incentives aiming to decrease fertilizer application.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sun, Shanxia; Delgado, Michael S; Sesmero, Juan P</p> <p>2016-07-15</p> <p>Input- and output-based economic policies designed to reduce water pollution from fertilizer runoff by adjusting management practices are theoretically justified and well-understood. Yet, in practice, adjustment in fertilizer application or land allocation may be sluggish. We provide practical guidance for policymakers regarding the relative magnitude and speed of adjustment of input- and output-based policies. Through a dynamic dual model of corn production that takes fertilizer as one of several production inputs, we measure the short- and long-term effects of policies that affect the relative prices of inputs and outputs through the short- and long-term price elasticities of fertilizer application, and also the total time required for different policies to affect fertilizer application through the adjustment rates of capital and land. These estimates allow us to compare input- and output-based policies based on their relative cost-effectiveness. Using data from Indiana and Illinois, we find that input-based policies are more cost-effective than their output-based counterparts in achieving a target reduction in fertilizer application. We show that input- and output-based policies yield adjustment in fertilizer application at the same speed, and that most of the adjustment takes place in the short-term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T31B0630A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.T31B0630A"><span>Effect of fault roughness on aftershock distribution and post co-seismic strain accumulation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aslam, K.; Daub, E. G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>We perform physics-based simulations of earthquake rupture propagation on geometrically complex strike-slip faults. We consider many different realization of the fault roughness and obtain heterogeneous stress fields by performing dynamic rupture simulation of large earthquakes. We calculate the Coulomb failure function (CFF) for all these realizations so that we can quantify zones of stress increase/shadows surrounding the main fault and compare our results to seismic catalogs. To do this comparison, we use relocated earthquake catalogs from Northern and Southern California. We specify the range of fault roughness parameters based on past observational studies. The Hurst exponent (H) varies in range from 0.5 to 1 and RMS height to wavelength ratio ( RMS deviation of a fault profile from planarity) has values between 10-2 to 10-3. For any realization of fault roughness, the Probability density function (PDF) values relative to the mean CFF change show a wider spread near the fault and this spread squeezes into a narrow band as we move away from fault. For lower value of RMS ratio ( 10-3), we see bigger zones of stress change near the hypocenter and for higher value of RMS ratio ( 10-2), we see alternate zones of stress increase/decrease surrounding the fault to have comparable lengths. We also couple short-term dynamic rupture simulation with long-term tectonic modelling. We do this by giving the stress output from one of the dynamic rupture simulation (of a single realization of fault roughness) to long term tectonic model (LTM) as initial condition and then run LTM over duration of seismic cycle. This short term and long term coupling enables us to understand how heterogeneous stresses due to fault geometry influence the dynamics of strain accumulation in the post-seismic and inter-seismic phase of seismic cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhyA..394..320X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhyA..394..320X"><span>The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xiao, Weilin; Zhang, Weiguo; Zhang, Xili; Chen, Xiaoyan</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Motivated by the empirical evidence of long range dependence in short-term interest rates and considering the long maturities of equity warrants, we propose the fractional Vasicek model to describe the dynamics of the short rate in the pricing environment of equity warrants. Using the partial differential equation approach, we present a valuation model for equity warrants under the assumption that the short rate follows the fractional Vasicek process. After identifying the pricing model for equity warrants, we provide the parameter estimation procedure for the proposed pricing model. Since obtaining the values of equity warrants from the proposed model needs to solve a nonlinear equation, we employ a hybrid intelligent algorithm to get around this optimization problem. Furthermore, to illustrate the practicality of our proposed model, we conduct an empirical study to ascertain the performance of our proposed model using the data from China’s warrant market and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The comparison of traditional models (such as the Black-Scholes model, the Noreen-Wolfson model, the Lauterbach-Schultz model, and the Ukhov model) with our proposed model is also presented. The empirical results show that the mean absolute percentage error of our pricing model is 10.30%. By contrast, the Black-Scholes model, the Noreen-Wolfson model, the Lauterbach-Schultz model, and the Ukhov model applied to the same warrant produce mean absolute errors of 35.26%, 37.67%, 33.40%, 32.81%, respectively. Thus the long memory property in stochastic interest rates cannot be ignored in determining the valuation of equity warrants.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080015775','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080015775"><span>The Long-Term Performance of Small-Cell Batteries Without Cell-Balancing Electronics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pearson, C.; Thwaite, C.; Curzon, D.; Rao, G.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Tests approx.8 yrs ago showed Sony HC do not imbalance. AEA developed a theory (ESPC 2002): a) Self-discharge (SD) decreases with state-of-charge (SOC); b) Cells diverge to a state of dynamic equilibrium; c) Equilibrium spread depends on cell SD uniformity. Balancing model verified against test data. Short-term measures of SD difficult in Sony cells and very small values, depends on technique. Long-term evidence supports lower SD at low SD. Battery testing best proof of performance, typically mission specific tests.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25214434','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25214434"><span>Agent-based modeling of autophagy reveals emergent regulatory behavior of spatio-temporal autophagy dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Börlin, Christoph S; Lang, Verena; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Brady, Nathan R</p> <p>2014-09-10</p> <p>Autophagy is a vesicle-mediated pathway for lysosomal degradation, essential under basal and stressed conditions. Various cellular components, including specific proteins, protein aggregates, organelles and intracellular pathogens, are targets for autophagic degradation. Thereby, autophagy controls numerous vital physiological and pathophysiological functions, including cell signaling, differentiation, turnover of cellular components and pathogen defense. Moreover, autophagy enables the cell to recycle cellular components to metabolic substrates, thereby permitting prolonged survival under low nutrient conditions. Due to the multi-faceted roles for autophagy in maintaining cellular and organismal homeostasis and responding to diverse stresses, malfunction of autophagy contributes to both chronic and acute pathologies. We applied a systems biology approach to improve the understanding of this complex cellular process of autophagy. All autophagy pathway vesicle activities, i.e. creation, movement, fusion and degradation, are highly dynamic, temporally and spatially, and under various forms of regulation. We therefore developed an agent-based model (ABM) to represent individual components of the autophagy pathway, subcellular vesicle dynamics and metabolic feedback with the cellular environment, thereby providing a framework to investigate spatio-temporal aspects of autophagy regulation and dynamic behavior. The rules defining our ABM were derived from literature and from high-resolution images of autophagy markers under basal and activated conditions. Key model parameters were fit with an iterative method using a genetic algorithm and a predefined fitness function. From this approach, we found that accurate prediction of spatio-temporal behavior required increasing model complexity by implementing functional integration of autophagy with the cellular nutrient state. The resulting model is able to reproduce short-term autophagic flux measurements (up to 3 hours) under basal and activated autophagy conditions, and to measure the degree of cell-to-cell variability. Moreover, we experimentally confirmed two model predictions, namely (i) peri-nuclear concentration of autophagosomes and (ii) inhibitory lysosomal feedback on mTOR signaling. Agent-based modeling represents a novel approach to investigate autophagy dynamics, function and dysfunction with high biological realism. Our model accurately recapitulates short-term behavior and cell-to-cell variability under basal and activated conditions of autophagy. Further, this approach also allows investigation of long-term behaviors emerging from biologically-relevant alterations to vesicle trafficking and metabolic state.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188960','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188960"><span>Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=315888','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=315888"><span>Quantifying characteristic growth dynamics in a semiarid grassland ecosystem by predicting short-term NDVI phenology from daily rainfall: a simple 4 parameter coupled-reservoir model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Predicting impacts of the magnitude and seasonal timing of rainfall pulses in water-limited grassland ecosystems concerns ecologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and a variety of stakeholders. This report describes a simple, effective procedure to emulate the seasonal response of grassland bio...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5369098','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5369098"><span>Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)4 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends. PMID:28273856</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24238258','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24238258"><span>Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T</p> <p>2013-12-15</p> <p>This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22122204','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22122204"><span>Mind or brain? Where does therapeutic change originate? A reaction to "The reunion process: A new focus in short-term dynamic psychotherapy.".</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Binder, Jeffrey L</p> <p>2007-06-01</p> <p>In "The Reunion Process: A New Focus in Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy," by Dr. Sandler (see record 2007-09422-001), addresses posttreatment relapse by a new therapeutic strategy based on attachment theory and recent research findings concerning the neurobiology of memory. This strategy involves the discovery or creation of positive childhood maternal attachment memories as a method of overcoming the dominance of negative memories. Dr. Sandler makes assumptions about what can be achieved in short-term therapies, the pace of therapeutic change, as well as the role in treatment outcome of techniques versus therapist skill and relationship factors. These assumptions are not supported by psychotherapy research. While the attempt to use new discoveries from neurobiology to guide the development of therapeutic techniques is admirable, the author appears to engage in a fair amount of speculative theoretical reductionism in attempting to explain the eventually positive outcome of the case he presents. I offer a more parsimonious psychological explanation, which is consistent with the short-term dynamic psychotherapy theory of change. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4422790','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4422790"><span>Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. PMID:25534671</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017QuIP...16...39M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017QuIP...16...39M"><span>Post-Markovian dynamics of quantum correlations: entanglement versus discord</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mohammadi, Hamidreza</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Dynamics of an open two-qubit system is investigated in the post-Markovian regime, where the environments have a short-term memory. Each qubit is coupled to separate environment which is held in its own temperature. The inter-qubit interaction is modeled by XY-Heisenberg model in the presence of spin-orbit interaction and inhomogeneous magnetic field. The dynamical behavior of entanglement and discord has been considered. The results show that quantum discord is more robust than quantum entanglement, during the evolution. Also the asymmetric feature of quantum discord can be monitored by introducing the asymmetries due to inhomogeneity of magnetic field and temperature difference between the reservoirs. By employing proper parameters of the model, it is possible to maintain nonvanishing quantum correlation at high degree of temperature. The results can provide a useful recipe for studying dynamical behavior of two-qubit systems such as trapped spin electrons in coupled quantum dots.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3738923','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3738923"><span>Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3814677','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3814677"><span>Synaptic Scaling Enables Dynamically Distinct Short- and Long-Term Memory Formation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling – a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis – combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes. PMID:24204240</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24204240','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24204240"><span>Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin</p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20030966','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20030966"><span>Cocaine addiction and personality: a mathematical model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Caselles, Antonio; Micó, Joan C; Amigó, Salvador</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>The existence of a close relation between personality and drug consumption is recognized, but the corresponding causal connection is not well known. Neither is it well known whether personality exercises an influence predominantly at the beginning and development of addiction, nor whether drug consumption produces changes in personality. This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of personality and addiction based on the unique personality trait theory (UPTT) and the general modelling methodology. This model attempts to integrate personality, the acute effect of drugs, and addiction. The UPTT states the existence of a unique trait of personality called extraversion, understood as a dimension that ranges from impulsive behaviour and sensation-seeking (extravert pole) to fearful and anxious behaviour (introvert pole). As a consequence of drug consumption, the model provides the main patterns of extraversion dynamics through a system of five coupled differential equations. It combines genetic extraversion, as a steady state, and dynamic extraversion in a unique variable measured on the hedonic scale. The dynamics of this variable describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a short-term time scale (typical of the acute effect); while its mean time value describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a long-term time scale (typical of the addiction effect). This understanding may help to develop programmes of prevention and intervention in drug misuse.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MS%26E..189a2005K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MS%26E..189a2005K"><span>Day-Ahead Short-Term Forecasting Electricity Load via Approximation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khamitov, R. N.; Gritsay, A. S.; Tyunkov, D. A.; E Sinitsin, G.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The method of short-term forecasting of a power consumption which can be applied to short-term forecasting of power consumption is offered. The offered model is based on sinusoidal function for the description of day and night cycles of power consumption. Function coefficients - the period and amplitude are set up is adaptive, considering dynamics of power consumption with use of an artificial neural network. The presented results are tested on real retrospective data of power supply company. The offered method can be especially useful if there are no opportunities of collection of interval indications of metering devices of consumers, and the power supply company operates with electrical supply points. The offered method can be used by any power supply company upon purchase of the electric power in the wholesale market. For this purpose, it is necessary to receive coefficients of approximation of sinusoidal function and to have retrospective data on power consumption on an interval not less than one year.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28053032','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28053032"><span>A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fiebig, Florian; Lansner, Anders</p> <p>2017-01-04</p> <p>A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism. Working memory (WM) is a key component of cognition. Hypotheses about the neural mechanism behind WM are currently under revision. Reflecting recent findings of fast Hebbian synaptic plasticity in cortex, we test whether a cortical spiking neural network model with such a mechanism can learn a multi-item WM task (word list learning). We show that our model can reproduce human cognitive phenomena and achieve comparable memory performance in both free and cued recall while being simultaneously compatible with experimental data on structure, connectivity, and neurophysiology of the underlying cortical tissue. These findings are directly relevant to the ongoing paradigm shift in the WM field. Copyright © 2017 Fiebig and Lansner.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5214637','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5214637"><span>A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fiebig, Florian</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory (WM) is a key component of cognition. Hypotheses about the neural mechanism behind WM are currently under revision. Reflecting recent findings of fast Hebbian synaptic plasticity in cortex, we test whether a cortical spiking neural network model with such a mechanism can learn a multi-item WM task (word list learning). We show that our model can reproduce human cognitive phenomena and achieve comparable memory performance in both free and cued recall while being simultaneously compatible with experimental data on structure, connectivity, and neurophysiology of the underlying cortical tissue. These findings are directly relevant to the ongoing paradigm shift in the WM field. PMID:28053032</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25185579','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25185579"><span>Exploiting short-term memory in soft body dynamics as a computational resource.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nakajima, K; Li, T; Hauser, H; Pfeifer, R</p> <p>2014-11-06</p> <p>Soft materials are not only highly deformable, but they also possess rich and diverse body dynamics. Soft body dynamics exhibit a variety of properties, including nonlinearity, elasticity and potentially infinitely many degrees of freedom. Here, we demonstrate that such soft body dynamics can be employed to conduct certain types of computation. Using body dynamics generated from a soft silicone arm, we show that they can be exploited to emulate functions that require memory and to embed robust closed-loop control into the arm. Our results suggest that soft body dynamics have a short-term memory and can serve as a computational resource. This finding paves the way towards exploiting passive body dynamics for control of a large class of underactuated systems. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4475734','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4475734"><span>Diverse Short-Term Dynamics of Inhibitory Synapses Converging on Striatal Projection Neurons: Differential Changes in a Rodent Model of Parkinson's Disease</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Herrera-Valdez, Marco A.; Lopez-Huerta, Violeta Gisselle; Galarraga, Elvira</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Most neurons in the striatum are projection neurons (SPNs) which make synapses with each other within distances of approximately 100 µm. About 5% of striatal neurons are GABAergic interneurons whose axons expand hundreds of microns. Short-term synaptic plasticity (STSP) between fast-spiking (FS) interneurons and SPNs and between SPNs has been described with electrophysiological and optogenetic techniques. It is difficult to obtain pair recordings from some classes of interneurons and due to limitations of actual techniques, no other types of STSP have been described on SPNs. Diverse STSPs may reflect differences in presynaptic release machineries. Therefore, we focused the present work on answering two questions: Are there different identifiable classes of STSP between GABAergic synapses on SPNs? And, if so, are synapses exhibiting different classes of STSP differentially affected by dopamine depletion? Whole-cell voltage-clamp recordings on SPNs revealed three classes of STSPs: depressing, facilitating, and biphasic (facilitating-depressing), in response to stimulation trains at 20 Hz, in a constant ionic environment. We then used the 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) rodent model of Parkinson's disease to show that synapses with different STSPs are differentially affected by dopamine depletion. We propose a general model of STSP that fits all the dynamics found in our recordings. PMID:26167304</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JChPh.146o4104W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JChPh.146o4104W"><span>Variational Koopman models: Slow collective variables and molecular kinetics from short off-equilibrium simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Hao; Nüske, Feliks; Paul, Fabian; Klus, Stefan; Koltai, Péter; Noé, Frank</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Markov state models (MSMs) and master equation models are popular approaches to approximate molecular kinetics, equilibria, metastable states, and reaction coordinates in terms of a state space discretization usually obtained by clustering. Recently, a powerful generalization of MSMs has been introduced, the variational approach conformation dynamics/molecular kinetics (VAC) and its special case the time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA), which allow us to approximate slow collective variables and molecular kinetics by linear combinations of smooth basis functions or order parameters. While it is known how to estimate MSMs from trajectories whose starting points are not sampled from an equilibrium ensemble, this has not yet been the case for TICA and the VAC. Previous estimates from short trajectories have been strongly biased and thus not variationally optimal. Here, we employ the Koopman operator theory and the ideas from dynamic mode decomposition to extend the VAC and TICA to non-equilibrium data. The main insight is that the VAC and TICA provide a coefficient matrix that we call Koopman model, as it approximates the underlying dynamical (Koopman) operator in conjunction with the basis set used. This Koopman model can be used to compute a stationary vector to reweight the data to equilibrium. From such a Koopman-reweighted sample, equilibrium expectation values and variationally optimal reversible Koopman models can be constructed even with short simulations. The Koopman model can be used to propagate densities, and its eigenvalue decomposition provides estimates of relaxation time scales and slow collective variables for dimension reduction. Koopman models are generalizations of Markov state models, TICA, and the linear VAC and allow molecular kinetics to be described without a cluster discretization.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17948787','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17948787"><span>Multi-scale individual-based model of microbial and bioconversion dynamics in aerobic granular sludge.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Xavier, Joao B; De Kreuk, Merle K; Picioreanu, Cristian; Van Loosdrecht, Mark C M</p> <p>2007-09-15</p> <p>Aerobic granular sludge is a novel compact biological wastewater treatment technology for integrated removal of COD (chemical oxygen demand), nitrogen, and phosphate charges. We present here a multiscale model of aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactors (GSBR) describing the complex dynamics of populations and nutrient removal. The macro scale describes bulk concentrations and effluent composition in six solutes (oxygen, acetate, ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate). A finer scale, the scale of one granule (1.1 mm of diameter), describes the two-dimensional spatial arrangement of four bacterial groups--heterotrophs, ammonium oxidizers, nitrite oxidizers, and phosphate accumulating organisms (PAO)--using individual based modeling (IbM) with species-specific kinetic models. The model for PAO includes three internal storage compounds: polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), poly phosphate, and glycogen. Simulations of long-term reactor operation show how the microbial population and activity depends on the operating conditions. Short-term dynamics of solute bulk concentrations are also generated with results comparable to experimental data from lab scale reactors. Our results suggest that N-removal in GSBR occurs mostly via alternating nitrification/denitrification rather than simultaneous nitrification/denitrification, supporting an alternative strategy to improve N-removal in this promising wastewater treatment process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AnPhy.383...33T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AnPhy.383...33T"><span>Model dynamics for quantum computing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tabakin, Frank</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>A model master equation suitable for quantum computing dynamics is presented. In an ideal quantum computer (QC), a system of qubits evolves in time unitarily and, by virtue of their entanglement, interfere quantum mechanically to solve otherwise intractable problems. In the real situation, a QC is subject to decoherence and attenuation effects due to interaction with an environment and with possible short-term random disturbances and gate deficiencies. The stability of a QC under such attacks is a key issue for the development of realistic devices. We assume that the influence of the environment can be incorporated by a master equation that includes unitary evolution with gates, supplemented by a Lindblad term. Lindblad operators of various types are explored; namely, steady, pulsed, gate friction, and measurement operators. In the master equation, we use the Lindblad term to describe short time intrusions by random Lindblad pulses. The phenomenological master equation is then extended to include a nonlinear Beretta term that describes the evolution of a closed system with increasing entropy. An external Bath environment is stipulated by a fixed temperature in two different ways. Here we explore the case of a simple one-qubit system in preparation for generalization to multi-qubit, qutrit and hybrid qubit-qutrit systems. This model master equation can be used to test the stability of memory and the efficacy of quantum gates. The properties of such hybrid master equations are explored, with emphasis on the role of thermal equilibrium and entropy constraints. Several significant properties of time-dependent qubit evolution are revealed by this simple study.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.H43D0519C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.H43D0519C"><span>Two dimensional hydrological simulation in elastic swelling/shrinking peat soils</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Camporese, M.; Ferraris, S.; Paniconi, C.; Putti, M.; Salandin, P.; Teatini, P.</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p>Peatlands respond to natural hydrologic cycles of precipitation and evapotranspiration with reversible deformations due to variations of water content in both the unsaturated and saturated zone. This phenomenon results in short-term vertical displacements of the soil surface that superimpose to the irreversible long-term subsidence naturally occurring in drained cropped peatlands because of bio-oxidation of the organic matter. The yearly sinking rates due to the irreversible process are usually comparable with the short-term deformation (swelling/shrinkage) and the latter must be evaluated to achieve a thorough understanding of the whole phenomenon. A mathematical model describing swelling/shrinkage dynamics in peat soils under unsaturated conditions has been derived from simple physical considerations, and validated by comparison with laboratory shrinkage data. The two-parameter model relates together the void and moisture ratios of the soil. This approach is implemented in a subsurface flow model describing variably saturated porous media flow (Richards' equation), by means of an appropriate modification of the general storage term. The contribution of the saturated zone to total deformation is considered by using information from the elastic storage coefficient. Simulations have been carried out for a drained cropped peatland south of the Venice Lagoon (Italy), for which a large data set of hydrological and deformation measurements has been collected since the end of 2001. The considered domain is representative of a field section bounded by ditches, subject to rainfall and evapotranspiration. The comparison between simulated and measured quantities demonstrates the capability of the model to accurately reproduce both the hydrological and deformation dynamics of peat, with values of the relevant parameters that are in good agreement with the literature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016BGeo...13.6651T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016BGeo...13.6651T"><span>Challenges in modelling isoprene and monoterpene emission dynamics of Arctic plants: a case study from a subarctic tundra heath</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tang, Jing; Schurgers, Guy; Valolahti, Hanna; Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The Arctic is warming at twice the global average speed, and the warming-induced increases in biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions from Arctic plants are expected to be drastic. The current global models' estimations of minimal BVOC emissions from the Arctic are based on very few observations and have been challenged increasingly by field data. This study applied a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, as a platform to investigate short-term and long-term BVOC emission responses to Arctic climate warming. Field observations in a subarctic tundra heath with long-term (13-year) warming treatments were extensively used for parameterizing and evaluating BVOC-related processes (photosynthesis, emission responses to temperature and vegetation composition). We propose an adjusted temperature (T) response curve for Arctic plants with much stronger T sensitivity than the commonly used algorithms for large-scale modelling. The simulated emission responses to 2 °C warming between the adjusted and original T response curves were evaluated against the observed warming responses (WRs) at short-term scales. Moreover, the model responses to warming by 4 and 8 °C were also investigated as a sensitivity test. The model showed reasonable agreement to the observed vegetation CO2 fluxes in the main growing season as well as day-to-day variability of isoprene and monoterpene emissions. The observed relatively high WRs were better captured by the adjusted T response curve than by the common one. During 1999-2012, the modelled annual mean isoprene and monoterpene emissions were 20 and 8 mg C m-2 yr-1, with an increase by 55 and 57 % for 2 °C summertime warming, respectively. Warming by 4 and 8 °C for the same period further elevated isoprene emission for all years, but the impacts on monoterpene emissions levelled off during the last few years. At hour-day scale, the WRs seem to be strongly impacted by canopy air T, while at the day-year scale, the WRs are a combined effect of plant functional type (PFT) dynamics and instantaneous BVOC responses to warming. The identified challenges in estimating Arctic BVOC emissions are (1) correct leaf T estimation, (2) PFT parameterization accounting for plant emission features as well as physiological responses to warming, and (3) representation of long-term vegetation changes in the past and the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1416032-real-time-anomaly-detection-very-short-term-load-forecasting','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1416032-real-time-anomaly-detection-very-short-term-load-forecasting"><span>Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Luo, Jian; Hong, Tao; Yue, Meng</p> <p></p> <p>Although the recent load information is critical to very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF), power companies often have difficulties in collecting the most recent load values accurately and timely for VSTLF applications. This paper tackles the problem of real-time anomaly detection in most recent load information used by VSTLF. This paper proposes a model-based anomaly detection method that consists of two components, a dynamic regression model and an adaptive anomaly threshold. The case study is developed using the data from ISO New England. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms three other anomaly detection methods including two methods commonlymore » used in the field and one state-of-the-art method used by a winning team of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Lastly, a general anomaly detection framework is proposed for the future research.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1416032-real-time-anomaly-detection-very-short-term-load-forecasting','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1416032-real-time-anomaly-detection-very-short-term-load-forecasting"><span>Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Luo, Jian; Hong, Tao; Yue, Meng</p> <p>2018-01-06</p> <p>Although the recent load information is critical to very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF), power companies often have difficulties in collecting the most recent load values accurately and timely for VSTLF applications. This paper tackles the problem of real-time anomaly detection in most recent load information used by VSTLF. This paper proposes a model-based anomaly detection method that consists of two components, a dynamic regression model and an adaptive anomaly threshold. The case study is developed using the data from ISO New England. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms three other anomaly detection methods including two methods commonlymore » used in the field and one state-of-the-art method used by a winning team of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Lastly, a general anomaly detection framework is proposed for the future research.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4751609','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4751609"><span>Decisions in Motion: Decision Dynamics during Intertemporal Choice reflect Subjective Evaluation of Delayed Rewards</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>O’Hora, Denis; Carey, Rachel; Kervick, Aoife; Crowley, David; Dabrowski, Maciej</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>People tend to discount rewards or losses that occur in the future. Such delay discounting has been linked to many behavioral and health problems, since people choose smaller short-term gains over greater long-term gains. We investigated whether the effect of delays on the subjective value of rewards is expressed in how people move when they make choices. Over 600 patrons of the RISK LAB exhibition hosted by the Science Gallery DublinTM played a short computer game in which they used a computer mouse to choose between amounts of money at various delays. Typical discounting effects were observed and decision dynamics indicated that choosing smaller short-term rewards became easier (i.e., shorter response times, tighter trajectories, less vacillation) as the delays until later rewards increased. Based on a sequence of choices, subjective values of delayed outcomes were estimated and decision dynamics during initial choices predicted these values. Decision dynamics are affected by subjective values of available options and thus provide a means to estimate such values. PMID:26867497</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28769085','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28769085"><span>Patterns and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hu, Zhan; Yao, Peng; van der Wal, Daphne; Bouma, Tjeerd J</p> <p>2017-08-02</p> <p>Short-term bed-level dynamics has been identified as one of the main factors affecting biota establishment or retreat on tidal flats. However, due to a lack of proper instruments and intensive labour involved, the pattern and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics are largely unexplored in a spatiotemporal context. In this study, 12 newly-developed automatic bed-level sensors were deployed for nearly 15 months on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure, proving an unique dataset of daily bed-level changes and hydrodynamic forcing. By analysing the data, we show that (1) a general steepening trend exists on both tidal flats, even with contrasting wave exposure and different bed sediment grain size; (2) daily morphodynamics level increases towards the sea; (3) tidal forcing sets the general morphological evolution pattern at both sites; (4) wave forcing induces short-term bed-level fluctuations at the wave-exposed site, but similar effect is not seen at the sheltered site with smaller waves; (5) storms provoke aggravated erosion, but the impact is conditioned by tidal levels. This study provides insights in the pattern and drivers of daily intertidal bed-level dynamics, thereby setting a template for future high-resolution field monitoring programmes and inviting in-depth morphodynamic modelling for improved understanding and predictive capability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..434...13H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..434...13H"><span>Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>The aim of this research is to investigate the multiscale dynamic linkages between crude oil price and the stock market in China at the sector level. First, the Haar à trous wavelet transform is implemented to extract multiscale information from the original time series. Furthermore, we incorporate the vector autoregression model to estimate the dynamic relationship pairing the Brent oil price and each sector stock index at each scale. There is a strong evidence showing that there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between most of the sector stock indices and the crude oil price in the short, medium and long terms, except for those in the health, utility and consumption sectors. In fact, the impacts of the crude oil price shocks vary for different sectors over different time horizons. More precisely, the energy, information, material and telecommunication sector stock indices respond to crude oil price shocks negatively in the short run and positively in the medium and long runs, terms whereas the finance sector responds positively over all three time horizons. Moreover, the Brent oil price shocks have a stronger influence on the stock indices of sectors other than the health, optional and utility sectors in the medium and long terms than in the short term. The results obtained suggest implication of this paper as that the investment and policymaking decisions made during different time horizons should be based on the information gathered from each corresponding time scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006cosp...36..488S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006cosp...36..488S"><span>Effects of low-level chronic irradiation on radiosensitivity of mammals: modeling and experimental studies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Smirnova, O. A.; Yonezawa, M.</p> <p></p> <p>Effects of low dose rate chronic irradiation on radiosensitivity of mammals mice are studied by experimental and modeling methods Own and reference experiments show that priming chronic low-level short-term and long-term exposures to radiation induce respectively elevated radiosensitivity and lowered radiosensitivity radioresistance in mice The manifestation of these radiosensitization and radioprotection effects are respectively increased and decreased mortality of preirradiated specimens after challenge acute irradiation in comparison with those for previously unexposed ones Taking into account that the reason of the animal death in the experiments was the hematopoietic syndrome the biophysical models of the critical body system hematopoiesis are used to simulate the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lines in mice exposed to challenge acute irradiation following the chronic one Juxtaposition of the modeling results obtained and the relevant experimental data shows that the radiosensitization effect of chronic low-level short-term less than 1 month preirradiation on mice is due to increased radiosensitivity of lymphopoietic granulocytopoietic and erythropoietic systems accompanied by increased or close to the normal level radiosensitivity of thrombocytopoietic system which are induced by the above-indicated exposure In turn the radioprotection effect of chronic low-level long-term more than 1 month preirradiation on mice is caused by decreased radiosensitivity radioresistance of the granulocytopoietic system which</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25178791','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25178791"><span>Dynamic analysis of CO₂ labeling and cell respiration using membrane-inlet mass spectrometry.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yang, Tae Hoon</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Here, we introduce a mass spectrometry-based analytical method and relevant technical details for dynamic cell respiration and CO2 labeling analysis. Such measurements can be utilized as additional information and constraints for model-based (13)C metabolic flux analysis. Dissolved dynamics of oxygen consumption and CO2 mass isotopomer evolution from (13)C-labeled tracer substrates through different cellular processes can be precisely measured on-line using a miniaturized reactor system equipped with a membrane-inlet mass spectrometer. The corresponding specific rates of physiologically relevant gases and CO2 mass isotopomers can be quantified within a short-term range based on the liquid-phase dynamics of dissolved fermentation gases.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812231S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812231S"><span>Sensitivity of stream water age to climatic variability and land use change: implications for water quality</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Soulsby, Chris; Birkel, Christian; Geris, Josie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Advances in the use of hydrological tracers and their integration into rainfall runoff models is facilitating improved quantification of stream water age distributions. This is of fundamental importance to understanding water quality dynamics over both short- and long-time scales, particularly as water quality parameters are often associated with water sources of markedly different ages. For example, legacy nitrate pollution may reflect deeper waters that have resided in catchments for decades, whilst more dynamics parameters from anthropogenic sources (e.g. P, pathogens etc) are mobilised by very young (<1 day) near-surface water sources. It is increasingly recognised that water age distributions of stream water is non-stationary in both the short (i.e. event dynamics) and longer-term (i.e. in relation to hydroclimatic variability). This provides a crucial context for interpreting water quality time series. Here, we will use longer-term (>5 year), high resolution (daily) isotope time series in modelling studies for different catchments to show how variable stream water age distributions can be a result of hydroclimatic variability and the implications for understanding water quality. We will also use examples from catchments undergoing rapid urbanisation, how the resulting age distributions of stream water change in a predictable way as a result of modified flow paths. The implication for the management of water quality in urban catchments will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CG....111...87X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CG....111...87X"><span>Displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide based on empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network in Three Gorges area, China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xu, Shiluo; Niu, Ruiqing</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Every year, landslides pose huge threats to thousands of people in China, especially those in the Three Gorges area. It is thus necessary to establish an early warning system to help prevent property damage and save peoples' lives. Most of the landslide displacement prediction models that have been proposed are static models. However, landslides are dynamic systems. In this paper, the total accumulative displacement of the Baijiabao landslide is divided into trend and periodic components using empirical mode decomposition. The trend component is predicted using an S-curve estimation, and the total periodic component is predicted using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). LSTM is a dynamic model that can remember historical information and apply it to the current output. Six triggering factors are chosen to predict the periodic term using the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient and mutual information. These factors include the cumulative precipitation during the previous month, the cumulative precipitation during a two-month period, the reservoir level during the current month, the change in the reservoir level during the previous month, the cumulative increment of the reservoir level during the current month, and the cumulative displacement during the previous month. When using one-step-ahead prediction, LSTM yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 6.112 mm, while the support vector machine for regression (SVR) and the back-propagation neural network (BP) yield values of 10.686 mm and 8.237 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the Elman network (Elman) yields an RMSE value of 6.579 mm. In addition, when using multi-step-ahead prediction, LSTM obtains an RMSE value of 8.648 mm, while SVR, BP and the Elman network obtains RSME values of 13.418 mm, 13.014 mm, and 13.370 mm. The predicted results indicate that, to some extent, the dynamic model (LSTM) achieves results that are more accurate than those of the static models (i.e., SVR and BP). LSTM even displays better performance than the Elman network, which is also a dynamic method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23236385','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23236385"><span>Short and long term investor synchronization caused by decoupling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Roszczynska-Kurasinska, Magda; Nowak, Andrzej; Kamieniarz, Daniel; Solomon, Sorin; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The dynamics of collective decision making is not yet well understood. Its practical relevance however can be of utmost importance, as experienced by people who lost their fortunes in turbulent moments of financial markets. In this paper we show how spontaneous collective "moods" or "biases" emerge dynamically among human participants playing a trading game in a simple model of the stock market. Applying theory and computer simulations to the experimental data generated by humans, we are able to predict the onset of such moments before they actually happen.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3517516','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3517516"><span>Short and Long Term Investor Synchronization Caused by Decoupling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Roszczynska-Kurasinska, Magda; Nowak, Andrzej; Kamieniarz, Daniel; Solomon, Sorin; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The dynamics of collective decision making is not yet well understood. Its practical relevance however can be of utmost importance, as experienced by people who lost their fortunes in turbulent moments of financial markets. In this paper we show how spontaneous collective “moods” or “biases” emerge dynamically among human participants playing a trading game in a simple model of the stock market. Applying theory and computer simulations to the experimental data generated by humans, we are able to predict the onset of such moments before they actually happen. PMID:23236385</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H11H1304B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H11H1304B"><span>Development and Application of a Stakeholder Assisted Dynamic Model to Facilitate Socio Hydrological Groundwater Management on Watershed Scale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Baig, A. I.; Adamowski, J. F.; Malard, J. J.; Peng, G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Groundwater resource, especially in canal downstream areas are under direct threat due to over extraction by farming community. The resource is easily exploitable and no regulatory policies are enforced effectively in the region. Therefore, there is an urgent need to manage the resource judiciously through policy implementation and stakeholder engagement. In developing countries such as Pakistan, effective management solutions need consideration of some addition factors such as small land holdings, the poor economic status of farmers, and limited modeling and mathematical skills. This presentation will discuss development and application of a comprehensive but simple stakeholder assisted dynamic model to address such challenges. Two major components of the dynamic model were: (i) a system dynamics model that describes socio-economic factors such as market values; and ii) a physically based model that simulates the salt balance in the root zone with conjunctive use of canal and tube well irrigation water. Stakeholder proposed policy scenarios such as canal lining, government-sponsored tubewell installation schemes were tested and optimized through economic and environmental tradeoff criteria. After 20 years of simulation, government subsidies on tubewells appear as a short term policy that resulted 37% increase in water availability with 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on groundwater sustainability in long terms, with 10% drop in groundwater levels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H13D1007K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H13D1007K"><span>Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is much stronger.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930005799&hterms=nordic&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dnordic','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930005799&hterms=nordic&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dnordic"><span>Ocean dynamics in the Nordic Seas using satellite altimetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pettersson, Lasse H.; Johannessen, O. M.; Olaussen, T. I.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>The main objective of this TOPEX/POSEIDON project is to integrate the accurately measured sea surface topography, as resolved by both TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeters, into the above-mentioned quantitative studies of the short- and long-term variations in the mesoscale ocean dynamics of the Nordic Seas south of 66 deg N. This implies: (1) comparison and validation of the capability to resolve the general basin-scale circulation and the mesoscale variability by, respectively, radar altimeters and numerical ocean circulation models; (2) calibration and validation of the altimeter-derived sea surface topography against in situ measurements from research vessels and moorings, particularly under extreme wind and wave conditions; and (3) improved monitoring and understanding of the flux variations between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, both on the short and seasonal time scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ECSS..182...40P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ECSS..182...40P"><span>Mediterranean dunes on the go: Evidence from a short term study on coastal herbaceous vegetation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Prisco, Irene; Stanisci, Angela; Acosta, Alicia T. R.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Detailed monitoring studies on permanent sites are a promising tool for an accurate evaluation of short, medium or long term vegetation dynamics. This work aims to evaluate short-term changes in coastal dune herbaceous plant species and EU Habitats through a multi-temporal analysis using permanent vegetation transects. In particular, (I) we analyze changes in species richness of coastal habitats; (II) we identify changes in plant cover of selected focal plants; and (III) we relate the changes to selected climatic variables and erosion/accretion processes. We selected one of the Italian's peninsula best preserved coastal dune areas (ca. 50 km along the Adriatic sea) with a relatively homogeneous coastal zonation and low anthropic pressure but with different erosion/accretion processes. We explored changes in richness over time using generalized linear models (GLMs). We identified different ecological guilds: focal, ruderal and alien plant species and investigated temporal trends in these guilds' species richness. We also applied GLMs to determine how plant cover of the most important focal species have changed over time. Overall, in this study we observed that the influence of climatic variables was relatively small. However, we found remarkable different trends in response to erosion/accretion processes both at community and at species level. Thus, our results highlight the importance of coastal dynamics in preserving not only coastal vegetation zonation, but also species richness and focal species cover. Moreover, we identified the dune grasslands as the most sensitive habitat for detecting the influence of climatic variables throughout a short term monitoring survey. Information from this study provides useful insights for detecting changes in vegetation, for establishing habitat protection priorities and for improving conservation efforts for these fragile ecosystems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29909405','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29909405"><span>Long story short: an introduction to the short-term and long-term Six Sigma quality and its importance in the laboratory medicine for the management of extra-analytical processes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ialongo, Cristiano; Bernardini, Sergio</p> <p>2018-06-18</p> <p>There is a compelling need for quality tools that enable effective control of the extra-analytical phase. In this regard, Six Sigma seems to offer a valid methodological and conceptual opportunity, and in recent times, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine has adopted it for indicating the performance requirements for non-analytical laboratory processes. However, the Six Sigma implies a distinction between short-term and long-term quality that is based on the dynamics of the processes. These concepts are still not widespread and applied in the field of laboratory medicine although they are of fundamental importance to exploit the full potential of this methodology. This paper reviews the Six Sigma quality concepts and shows how they originated from Shewhart's control charts, in respect of which they are not an alternative but a completion. It also discusses the dynamic nature of process and how it arises, concerning particularly the long-term dynamic mean variation, and explains why this leads to the fundamental distinction of quality we previously mentioned.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4422659','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4422659"><span>An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed. PMID:25945497</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25945497','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25945497"><span>An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12285372','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12285372"><span>A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Boyce, J K; Ravallion, M</p> <p>1991-11-01</p> <p>Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3330592','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3330592"><span>Time-Limited Psychotherapy With Adolescents</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Shefler, Gaby</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Short-term dynamic therapies, characterized by abbreviated lengths (10–40 sessions) and, in many cases, preset termination dates, have become more widespread in the past three decades. Short-term therapies are based on rapid psychodynamic diagnosis, a therapeutic focus, a rapidly formed therapeutic alliance, awareness of termination and separation processes, and the directive stance of the therapist. The emotional storm of adolescence, stemming from both developmental and psychopathological sources, leaves many adolescents in need of psychotherapy. Many adolescents in need of therapy resist long-term attachment and involvement in an ambiguous relationship, which they experience as a threat to their emerging sense of independence and separateness. Short-term dynamic therapy can be the treatment of choice for many adolescents because it minimizes these threats and is more responsive to their developmental needs. The article presents treatment and follow-up of a 17-year-old youth, using James Mann's time-limited psychotherapy method. PMID:10793128</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=affect+AND+investors&id=EJ860872','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=affect+AND+investors&id=EJ860872"><span>Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Pains: How Cues about State Aid Learning in Dynamic Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Successful investors seeking returns, animals foraging for food, and pilots controlling aircraft all must take into account how their current decisions will impact their future standing. One challenge facing decision makers is that options that appear attractive in the short-term may not turn out best in the long run. In this paper, we explore…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=%22patient+characteristic%22&pg=6&id=EJ419696','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=%22patient+characteristic%22&pg=6&id=EJ419696"><span>Patient Suitability and Outcome in Short-Term Individual Psychotherapy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Piper, William E.; And Others</p> <p>1990-01-01</p> <p>Studied effects of short-term, dynamically oriented individual therapy and patient characteristic quality of object relations (QOR) in study involving 8 therapists and 144 psychiatric outpatients. Best results were attained by high QOR therapy patients; worst results were attained by low QOR control patients. Results were suggestive of optimal…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006APS..MAR.C1190T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006APS..MAR.C1190T"><span>An empirical and model study on automobile market in Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tang, Ji-Ying; Qiu, Rong; Zhou, Yueping; He, Da-Ren</p> <p>2006-03-01</p> <p>We have done an empirical investigation on automobile market in Taiwan including the development of the possession rate of the companies in the market from 1979 to 2003, the development of the largest possession rate, and so on. A dynamic model for describing the competition between the companies is suggested based on the empirical study. In the model each company is given a long-term competition factor (such as technology, capital and scale) and a short-term competition factor (such as management, service and advertisement). Then the companies play games in order to obtain more possession rate in the market under certain rules. Numerical simulation based on the model display a competition developing process, which qualitatively and quantitatively agree with our empirical investigation results.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9176641','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9176641"><span>Modeling T-cell proliferation: an investigation of the consequences of the Hayflick limit.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pilyugin, S; Mittler, J; Antia, R</p> <p>1997-05-07</p> <p>Somatic cells, including immune cells such as T-cells have a limited capacity for proliferation and can only replicate for a finite number of generations (known as the Hayflick limit) before dying. In this paper we use mathematical models to investigate the consequences of introducing a Hayflick limit on the dynamics of T-cells stimulated with specific antigen. We show that while the Hayflick limit does not alter the dynamics of T-cell response to antigen over the short term, it may have a profound effect on the long-term immune response. In particular we show that over the long term the Hayflick limit may be important in determining whether an immune response can be maintained to a persistent antigen (or parasite). The eventual outcome is determined by the magnitude of the Hayflick limit, the extent to which antigen reduces the input of T-cells from the thymus, and the rate of antigen-induced proliferation of T-cells. Counter to what might be expected we show that the persistence of an immune response (immune memory) requires the density of persistent antigen to be less than a defined threshold value. If the amount of persistent antigen (or parasite) is greater than this threshold value then immune memory will be relatively short lived. The consequences of this threshold for persistent mycobacterial and HIV infections and for the generation of vaccines are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1196203-co-emission-mitigation-fossil-fuel-markets-dynamic-international-aspects-climate-policies','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1196203-co-emission-mitigation-fossil-fuel-markets-dynamic-international-aspects-climate-policies"><span>CO₂ emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; ...</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increasesmore » strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1196203','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1196203"><span>CO₂ emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem</p> <p></p> <p>This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increasesmore » strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Geomo.257...75M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Geomo.257...75M"><span>Multi-decadal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea: Observational evidence of early reef island recovery after the impact of storm waves</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mann, Thomas; Westphal, Hildegard</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and other high-magnitude events are important steering mechanisms in the geomorphic development of coral reef islands. Sandy reef islands located outside the storm belts are strongly sensitive to the impact of occasional high-magnitude events and show abrupt, commonly erosive geomorphic change in response to such events. Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data, it is well known that the process of landform recovery might take several decades or even longer. However, despite the increasing amount of scientific attention towards short- and long-term island dynamics, the lack of data and models often prevent a robust analysis of the timing and nature of recovery initiation. Here we show how natural island recovery starts immediately after the impact of a high-magnitude event. We analyze multi-temporal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea and combine our findings with a unique set of published field observations (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014). Trends of shoreline change since 1943 and changes in planform island area indicate a long-term accretionary mode for most islands. Apparent shoreline instability is detected for the last decade of analysis, however this can be explained by the impact of storm waves in December 2008 that (temporarily?) masked the long-term trend. The transition from negative to positive rates of change in the aftermath of this storm event is indicative of inherent negative feedback processes that counteract short-term changes in energy input and represent the initiation of island recovery. Collectively, our results support the concept of dynamic rather than static reef islands and clearly demonstrate how short-term processes can influence interpretations of medium-term change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16484371','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16484371"><span>Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom</p> <p>2006-02-28</p> <p>Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2040302','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2040302"><span>Short-Term Plasticity in a Computational Model of the Tail-Withdrawal Circuit in Aplysia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Baxter, Douglas A.; Byrne, John H.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs. PMID:17957237</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhRvL.117c8101K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhRvL.117c8101K"><span>Effective Dynamics of Microorganisms That Interact with Their Own Trail</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kranz, W. Till; Gelimson, Anatolij; Zhao, Kun; Wong, Gerard C. L.; Golestanian, Ramin</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Like ants, some microorganisms are known to leave trails on surfaces to communicate. We explore how trail-mediated self-interaction could affect the behavior of individual microorganisms when diffusive spreading of the trail is negligible on the time scale of the microorganism using a simple phenomenological model for an actively moving particle and a finite-width trail. The effective dynamics of each microorganism takes on the form of a stochastic integral equation with the trail interaction appearing in the form of short-term memory. For a moderate coupling strength below an emergent critical value, the dynamics exhibits effective diffusion in both orientation and position after a phase of superdiffusive reorientation. We report experimental verification of a seemingly counterintuitive perpendicular alignment mechanism that emerges from the model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2678746','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2678746"><span>Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12173422','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12173422"><span>Modelling the effects of trade-offs between long and short-term objectives in fisheries management.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mardle, Simon; Pascoe, Sean</p> <p>2002-05-01</p> <p>Fisheries management is typically a complex problem, from both an environmental and political perspective. The main source of conflict occurs between the need for stock conservation and the need for fishing community well-being, which is typically measured by employment and income levels. For most fisheries, overexploitation of the stock requires a reduction in the level of fishing activity. While this may lead to long-term benefits (both conservation and economic), it also leads to a short-term reduction in employment and regional incomes. In regions which are heavily dependent on fisheries, short-term consequences of conservation efforts may be considerable. The relatively high degree of scientific uncertainty with respect to the status of the stocks and the relatively short lengths of political terms of office, generally give rise to the short-run view taking the highest priority when defining policy objectives. In this paper, a multi-objective model of the North Sea is developed that incorporates both long-term and short-term objectives. Optimal fleet sizes are estimated taking into consideration different preferences between the defined short-term and long-term objectives. The subsequent results from the model give the short-term and long-term equilibrium status of the fishery incorporating the effects of the short-term objectives. As would be expected, an optimal fleet from a short-term perspective is considerably larger than an optimal fleet from a long-run perspective. Conversely, stock sizes and sustainable yields are considerably lower in the long-term if a short-term perspective is used in setting management policies. The model results highlight what is essentially a principal-agent problem, with the objectives of the policy makers not necessarily reflecting the objectives of society as a whole.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010tsos.book..127D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010tsos.book..127D"><span>Information Dynamics and Aspects of Musical Perception</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dubnov, Shlomo</p> <p></p> <p>Musical experience has been often suggested to be related to forming of expectations, their fulfillment or denial. In terms of information theory, expectancies and predictions serve to reduce uncertainty about the future and might be used to efficiently represent and "compress" data. In this chapter we present an information theoretic model of musical listening based on the idea that expectations that arise from past musical material are framing our appraisal of what comes next, and that this process eventually results in creation of emotions or feelings. Using a notion of "information rate" we can measure the amount of information between past and present in the musical signal on different time scales using statistics of sound spectral features. Several musical pieces are analyzed in terms of short and long term information rate dynamics and are compared to analysis of musical form and its structural functions. The findings suggest that a relation exists between information dynamics and musical structure that eventually leads to creation of human listening experience and feelings such as "wow" and "aha".</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Proactive+AND+interference+AND+short-term+AND+memory&pg=2&id=EJ746260','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Proactive+AND+interference+AND+short-term+AND+memory&pg=2&id=EJ746260"><span>A Revised Model of Short-Term Memory and Long-Term Learning of Verbal Sequences</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Burgess, Neil; Hitch, Graham J.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>The interaction between short- and long-term memory is studied within a model in which phonemic and (temporal) contextual information have separate influences on immediate verbal serial recall via connections with short- and long-term plasticity [Burgess, N., & Hitch, G.J. (1999). Memory for serial order: a network model of the phonological loop…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25911822','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25911822"><span>[Urine metabonomic study on long-term use of total ginsenosides in rats].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Xie, Xie; Chen, Shao-Qiu; Lv, Ying-Fang; Wang, Xiao-Yan; Jia, Wei</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Due to its effect of systems regulation and promotion on body, Ginseng is always referred to be long-term used as a dietary supplement. But it was still unclear about its target of the tonic effects and also the side-effects long-term use may bring. Urine metabolomic method is suitable for long-term studies of pharmaco-dynamics, pharmacology and toxicology of traditional Chinese medicine because of its characteristics of non-invasive and monitoring the whole-body metabolism. This study was designed to detect the dynamic variation of rat urine metabolome along with a long-term administration of total ginsenosides using GC-TOF based metabolomic technology. Our result showed that either short-term or chronic administration of ginsenosides did not impact the rat urine metabolome significantly (as the PCA subgroup was not successful). By comparison, the short-term (1-3 w) dose of ginsenosides had the biggest metabolic influence including TCA cycle, catecholamines and neurotransmitter amino acids. Medium-term (6-10 w) dose had a gradually lower effect and long-term (27 w) dose almost had no effect. Our study indicates that both short and long-term administration of ginsenosides showed almost no obvious side-effect on the experimental animals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17236416','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17236416"><span>The long-term evolution of multilocus traits under frequency-dependent disruptive selection.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>van Doorn, G Sander; Dieckmann, Ulf</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>Frequency-dependent disruptive selection is widely recognized as an important source of genetic variation. Its evolutionary consequences have been extensively studied using phenotypic evolutionary models, based on quantitative genetics, game theory, or adaptive dynamics. However, the genetic assumptions underlying these approaches are highly idealized and, even worse, predict different consequences of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Population genetic models, by contrast, enable genotypic evolutionary models, but traditionally assume constant fitness values. Only a minority of these models thus addresses frequency-dependent selection, and only a few of these do so in a multilocus context. An inherent limitation of these remaining studies is that they only investigate the short-term maintenance of genetic variation. Consequently, the long-term evolution of multilocus characters under frequency-dependent disruptive selection remains poorly understood. We aim to bridge this gap between phenotypic and genotypic models by studying a multilocus version of Levene's soft-selection model. Individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations based on adaptive dynamics theory provide insights into the underlying evolutionary dynamics. Our analysis uncovers a general pattern of polymorphism formation and collapse, likely to apply to a wide variety of genetic systems: after convergence to a fitness minimum and the subsequent establishment of genetic polymorphism at multiple loci, genetic variation becomes increasingly concentrated on a few loci, until eventually only a single polymorphic locus remains. This evolutionary process combines features observed in quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics models, and it can be explained as a consequence of changes in the selection regime that are inherent to frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Our findings demonstrate that the potential of frequency-dependent disruptive selection to maintain polygenic variation is considerably smaller than previously expected.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009PhRvL.103u8101B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009PhRvL.103u8101B"><span>Dynamical Origin of the Effective Storage Capacity in the Brain's Working Memory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bick, Christian; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.</p> <p>2009-11-01</p> <p>The capacity of working memory (WM), a short-term buffer for information in the brain, is limited. We suggest a model for sequential WM that is based upon winnerless competition amongst representations of available informational items. Analytical results for the underlying mathematical model relate WM capacity and relative lateral inhibition in the corresponding neural network. This implies an upper bound for WM capacity, which is, under reasonable neurobiological assumptions, close to the “magical number seven.”</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011CoPhC.182.1866I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011CoPhC.182.1866I"><span>Modelling opinion formation driven communities in social networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Iñiguez, Gerardo; Barrio, Rafael A.; Kertész, János; Kaski, Kimmo K.</p> <p>2011-09-01</p> <p>In a previous paper we proposed a model to study the dynamics of opinion formation in human societies by a co-evolution process involving two distinct time scales of fast transaction and slower network evolution dynamics. In the transaction dynamics we take into account short range interactions as discussions between individuals and long range interactions to describe the attitude to the overall mood of society. The latter is handled by a uniformly distributed parameter α, assigned randomly to each individual, as quenched personal bias. The network evolution dynamics is realised by rewiring the societal network due to state variable changes as a result of transaction dynamics. The main consequence of this complex dynamics is that communities emerge in the social network for a range of values in the ratio between time scales. In this paper we focus our attention on the attitude parameter α and its influence on the conformation of opinion and the size of the resulting communities. We present numerical studies and extract interesting features of the model that can be interpreted in terms of social behaviour.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSMTE..05.3407P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSMTE..05.3407P"><span>Sudden transitions in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pires, Marcelo A.; Oestereich, André L.; Crokidakis, Nuno</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with an opinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception can influence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of the disease. Differently from previous works we have considered continuous opinions. The epidemic spreading is governed by an SIS-like model with an extra vaccinated state. In our model individuals vaccinate with a probability proportional to their opinions. The opinions change due to peer influence in pairwise interactions. The epidemic feedback to the opinion dynamics acts as an external field increasing the vaccination probability. We performed Monte Carlo simulations in fully-connected populations. Interestingly we observed the emergence of a first-order phase transition, besides the usual active-absorbing phase transition presented in the SIS model. Our simulations also show that with a certain combination of parameters, an increment in the initial fraction of the population that is pro-vaccine has a twofold effect: it can lead to smaller epidemic outbreaks in the short term, but it also contributes to the survival of the chain of infections in the long term. Our results also suggest that it is possible that more effective vaccines can decrease the long-term vaccine coverage. This is a counterintuitive outcome, but it is in line with empirical observations that vaccines can become a victim of their own success.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA444766','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA444766"><span>Integration of Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) and Short-Term Predictive System (STPS): Surface Current Estimates into the Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2005-11-01</p> <p>walk (Markovian in position) techniques to perform these simulations ( Breivik et al, 2004; Spaulding and Howlett, 1996; Spaulding and Jayko, 1991; ASA...studies. Model 1 is used in most search and rescue models to make trajectory predictions ( Breivik et al, 2004; Spaulding and Howlett, 1996; Spaulding...ocean gyres: Part II hierarchy of stochastic models, Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 32, 797-830. March 2002. Breivik , O., A. Allen, C. Wettre</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26854116','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26854116"><span>The application of knemometry to measure childhood short-term growth among the indigenous Shuar of Ecuador.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Urlacher, Samuel S; Snodgrass, J Josh; Liebert, Melissa A; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Sugiyama, Lawrence S</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Knemometry, the precise measurement of lower leg (LL) length, suggests that childhood short-term (e.g., weekly) growth is a dynamic, nonlinear process. However, owing to the large size and complexity of the traditional knemometer device, previous study of short-term growth among children has been restricted predominantly to clinical settings in industrialized Western nations. The aim of the present study is to address this limitation and promote broader understandings of global variation in childhood development by: (1) describing a custom-built portable knemometer and assessing its performance in the field; and (2) demonstrating the potential application of such a device by characterizing childhood short-term LL growth among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal LL length data were collected weekly from 336 Shuar children age 5-12 years old using the custom portable knemometer (n = 1,145 total observations). Device performance and Shuar short-term LL growth were explored using linear mixed effects models and descriptive statistics. The portable knemometer performed well across a range of participant characteristics and possesses a low technical error of measurement of 0.18 mm. Shuar childhood LL growth averages 0.47 mm/week (SD = 0.75 mm/week), but exhibits large between- and within-individual variation. Knemometry can be reliably performed in the field, providing a means for evaluating childhood short-term growth among genetically and ecologically diverse populations. Preliminary findings suggest that Shuar weekly LL growth is comparable in mean magnitude but likely more variable than reported for healthy Western children. Future work will further explore these patterns. Am J Phys Anthropol 160:353-357, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.367G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.367G"><span>Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single-ANN model (without regime classification) is adopted as a reference model. Both models are evaluated in terms of Improvement over Persistence on the Mean Square Error basis (IoP%) when predicting horizons form 1 time-step to 5. The case of a wind farm located in the complex terrain of Alaiz (north of Spain) has been considered. Three years of available power output data with a hourly resolution have been employed: two years for training and validation of the model and the last year for assessing the accuracy. Results showed that the RS-ANN overcame the single-ANN model for one step-ahead forecasts: the overall IoP% was up to 8.66% for the RS-ANN model (depending on the gradient criterion selected to consider the ramp regime triggered) and 6.16% for the single-ANN. However, both models showed similar accuracy for larger horizons. A locally-weighted evaluation during ramp events for one-step ahead was also performed. It was found that the IoP% during ramps-up increased from 17.60% (case of single-ANN) to 22.25% (case of RS-ANN); however, during the ramps-down events this improvement increased from 18.55% to 19.55%. Three main conclusions are derived from this case study: It highlights the importance of considering statistical models capable of differentiate several regimes showed by the output power time series in order to improve the forecasting during extreme events like ramps. On-line regime classification based on available power output data didn't seem to contribute to improve forecasts for horizons beyond one-step ahead. Tacking into account other explanatory variables (local wind measurements, NWP outputs) could lead to a better understanding of ramp events, improving the regime assessment also for further horizons. The RS-ANN model slightly overcame the single-ANN during ramp-down events. If further research reinforce this effect, special attention should be addressed to understand the underlying processes during ramp-down events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157598','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157598"><span>Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Teh, Su Yean; Turtora, Michael; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Jiang Jiang,; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock Lye</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJB...90..237B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJB...90..237B"><span>Signs of universality in the structure of culture</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Băbeanu, Alexandru-Ionuţ; Talman, Leandros; Garlaschelli, Diego</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Understanding the dynamics of opinions, preferences and of culture as whole requires more use of empirical data than has been done so far. It is clear that an important role in driving this dynamics is played by social influence, which is the essential ingredient of many quantitative models. Such models require that all traits are fixed when specifying the "initial cultural state". Typically, this initial state is randomly generated, from a uniform distribution over the set of possible combinations of traits. However, recent work has shown that the outcome of social influence dynamics strongly depends on the nature of the initial state. If the latter is sampled from empirical data instead of being generated in a uniformly random way, a higher level of cultural diversity is found after long-term dynamics, for the same level of propensity towards collective behavior in the short-term. Moreover, if the initial state is randomized by shuffling the empirical traits among people, the level of long-term cultural diversity is in-between those obtained for the empirical and uniformly random counterparts. The current study repeats the analysis for multiple empirical data sets, showing that the results are remarkably similar, although the matrix of correlations between cultural variables clearly differs across data sets. This points towards robust structural properties inherent in empirical cultural states, possibly due to universal laws governing the dynamics of culture in the real world. The results also suggest that this dynamics might be characterized by criticality and involve mechanisms beyond social influence.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4359855','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4359855"><span>An Agent-Based Epidemic Simulation of Social Behaviors Affecting HIV Transmission among Taiwanese Homosexuals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Computational simulations are currently used to identify epidemic dynamics, to test potential prevention and intervention strategies, and to study the effects of social behaviors on HIV transmission. The author describes an agent-based epidemic simulation model of a network of individuals who participate in high-risk sexual practices, using number of partners, condom usage, and relationship length to distinguish between high- and low-risk populations. Two new concepts—free links and fixed links—are used to indicate tendencies among individuals who either have large numbers of short-term partners or stay in long-term monogamous relationships. An attempt was made to reproduce epidemic curves of reported HIV cases among male homosexuals in Taiwan prior to using the agent-based model to determine the effects of various policies on epidemic dynamics. Results suggest that when suitable adjustments are made based on available social survey statistics, the model accurately simulates real-world behaviors on a large scale. PMID:25815047</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ791442.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ791442.pdf"><span>A Short Term Therapy Approach to Processing Trauma: Art Therapy and Bilateral Stimulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Tripp, Tally</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>This article describes a dynamic, short-term art therapy approach that has been developed for the treatment of trauma related disorders. Using a modified Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) protocol with alternating tactile and auditory bilateral stimulation, associations are rapidly brought to conscious awareness and expressed in…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhRvE..90c2709L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhRvE..90c2709L"><span>Slow synaptic dynamics in a network: From exponential to power-law forgetting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luck, J. M.; Mehta, A.</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>We investigate a mean-field model of interacting synapses on a directed neural network. Our interest lies in the slow adaptive dynamics of synapses, which are driven by the fast dynamics of the neurons they connect. Cooperation is modeled from the usual Hebbian perspective, while competition is modeled by an original polarity-driven rule. The emergence of a critical manifold culminating in a tricritical point is crucially dependent on the presence of synaptic competition. This leads to a universal 1/t power-law relaxation of the mean synaptic strength along the critical manifold and an equally universal 1/√t relaxation at the tricritical point, to be contrasted with the exponential relaxation that is otherwise generic. In turn, this leads to the natural emergence of long- and short-term memory from different parts of parameter space in a synaptic network, which is the most original and important result of our present investigations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5123898','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5123898"><span>Longitudinal T1 relaxation rate (R1) captures changes in short-term Mn exposure in welders</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lewis, Mechelle M.; Flynn, Michael R.; Lee, Eun-Young; Van Buren, Scott; Van Buren, Eric; Du, Guangwei; Fry, Rebecca C.; Herring, Amy H.; Kong, Lan; Mailman, Richard B.; Huang, Xuemei</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Objectives We demonstrated recently that the T1 relaxation rate (R1) captured short-term Mn exposure in welders with chronic, relatively low exposure levels in a cross-sectional study. In the current study, we used a longitudinal design to examine whether R1 values reflect the short-term dynamics of Mn exposure. Methods Twenty-nine welders were evaluated at baseline and 12 months. Occupational questionnaires estimated short-term welding exposure using welding hours in the 90 days prior to each study visit (HrsW90). In addition, blood Mn levels, the pallidal index (PI; globus pallidus T1-weighted intensity (T1WI)/frontal white matter T1WI), and R1 values in brain regions of interest (ROIs) were determined as Mn biomarkers at each visit. Associations between changes in estimated welding exposure and changes in purported Mn biomarkers were assessed by Spearman’s correlations with adjustment for age and baseline R1, HrsW90, and blood Mn values. Results Changes in welding hours (HrsW90: the short-term welding exposure estimate), was associated significantly with changes in R1 values in the putamen (r=0.541, p=0.005), caudate (R=0.453, p=0.023), globus pallidus (R=0.430, p=0.032), amygdala (R=0.461, p=0.020), and hippocampus (R=0.447, p=0.025), but not with changes in blood Mn levels or the PI. Discussion Changes in R1 values correlated with changes in the short-term welding exposure estimate, but not with more traditional measures of Mn exposure (blood Mn levels or PI). These results suggest that R1 may serve as a useful marker to capture the short-term dynamics in Mn brain accumulation related to welding exposure. PMID:27567731</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4159988','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4159988"><span>How can you capture cultural dynamics?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kashima, Yoshihisa</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Cross-cultural comparison is a critical method by which we can examine the interaction between culture and psychological processes. However, comparative methods tend to overlook cultural dynamics – the formation, maintenance, and transformation of cultures over time. The present article gives a brief overview of four different types of research designs that have been used to examine cultural dynamics in the literature: (1) cross-temporal methods that trace medium- to long-term changes in a culture; (2) cross-generational methods that explore medium-term implications of cultural transmission; (3) experimental simulation methods that investigate micro-level mechanisms of cultural dynamics; and (4) formal models and computer simulation methods often used to investigate long-term and macro-level implications of micro-level mechanisms. These methods differ in terms of level of analysis for which they are designed (micro vs. macro-level), scale of time for which they are typically used (short-, medium-, or long-term), and direction of inference (deductive vs. empirical method) that they imply. The paper describes examples of these methods, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and point to their complementarity in inquiries about cultural change. Because cultural dynamics research is about meaning over time, issues deriving from interpretation of meaning and temporal distance between researchers and objects of inquiry can pose threats to the validity of the research and its findings. The methodological question about hermeneutic circle is recalled and further inquiries are encouraged. PMID:25309476</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H41D1359R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H41D1359R"><span>Comparisons with observational and experimental manipulation data imply needed conceptual changes to ESM land models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The land models integrated in Earth System Models (ESMs) are critical components necessary to predict soil carbon dynamics and carbon-climate interactions under a changing climate. Yet, these models have been shown to have poor predictive power when compared with observations and ignore many processes known to the observational communities to influence above and belowground carbon dynamics. Here I will report work to tightly couple observations and perturbation experiment results with development of an ESM land model (ALM), focusing on nutrient constraints of the terrestrial C cycle. Using high-frequency flux tower observations and short-term nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments, we show that conceptualizing plant and soil microbe interactions as a multi-substrate, multi-competitor kinetic network allows for accurate prediction of nutrient acquisition. Next, using multiple-year FACE and fertilization response observations at many forest sites, we show that capturing the observed responses requires representation of dynamic allocation to respond to the resulting stresses. Integrating the mechanisms implied by these observations into ALM leads to much lower observational bias and to very different predictions of long-term soil and aboveground C stocks and dynamics, and therefore C-climate feedbacks. I describe how these types of observational constraints are being integrated into the open-source International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, and end with the argument that consolidating as many observations of all sorts for easy use by modelers is an important goal to improve C-climate feedback predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28714777','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28714777"><span>Resisting Temptation: Tracking How Self-Control Conflicts Are Successfully Resolved in Real Time.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Stillman, Paul E; Medvedev, Danila; Ferguson, Melissa J</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Across four studies, we used mouse tracking to identify the dynamic, on-line cognitive processes that underlie successful self-control decisions. First, we showed that individuals display real-time conflict when choosing options consistent with their long-term goal over short-term temptations. Second, we found that individuals who are more successful at self-control-whether measured or manipulated-show significantly less real-time conflict in only self-control-relevant choices. Third, we demonstrated that successful individuals who choose a long-term goal over a short-term temptation display movements that are smooth rather than abrupt, which suggests dynamic rather than stage-based resolution of self-control conflicts. These findings have important implications for contemporary theories of self-control.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910040954&hterms=theory+chaos&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dtheory%2Bchaos','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910040954&hterms=theory+chaos&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dtheory%2Bchaos"><span>Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Mundt, Michael D.; Maguire, W. Bruce, II; Chase, Robert R. P.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24582679','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24582679"><span>Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chow, Carson C; Hall, Kevin D</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. Published by Elsevier Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4127345','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4127345"><span>Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chow, Carson C.; Hall, Kevin D.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. PMID:24582679</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4498694','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4498694"><span>Twitter-Based Analysis of the Dynamics of Collective Attention to Political Parties</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Eom, Young-Ho; Puliga, Michelangelo; Smailović, Jasmina; Mozetič, Igor; Caldarelli, Guido</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media. PMID:26161795</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26161795','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26161795"><span>Twitter-Based Analysis of the Dynamics of Collective Attention to Political Parties.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Eom, Young-Ho; Puliga, Michelangelo; Smailović, Jasmina; Mozetič, Igor; Caldarelli, Guido</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25747098','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25747098"><span>Dynamic density functional theory with hydrodynamic interactions: theoretical development and application in the study of phase separation in gas-liquid systems.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kikkinides, E S; Monson, P A</p> <p>2015-03-07</p> <p>Building on recent developments in dynamic density functional theory, we have developed a version of the theory that includes hydrodynamic interactions. This is achieved by combining the continuity and momentum equations eliminating velocity fields, so the resulting model equation contains only terms related to the fluid density and its time and spatial derivatives. The new model satisfies simultaneously continuity and momentum equations under the assumptions of constant dynamic or kinematic viscosity and small velocities and/or density gradients. We present applications of the theory to spinodal decomposition of subcritical temperatures for one-dimensional and three-dimensional density perturbations for both a van der Waals fluid and for a lattice gas model in mean field theory. In the latter case, the theory provides a hydrodynamic extension to the recently studied dynamic mean field theory. We find that the theory correctly describes the transition from diffusive phase separation at short times to hydrodynamic behaviour at long times.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22416230-dynamic-density-functional-theory-hydrodynamic-interactions-theoretical-development-application-study-phase-separation-gas-liquid-systems','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22416230-dynamic-density-functional-theory-hydrodynamic-interactions-theoretical-development-application-study-phase-separation-gas-liquid-systems"><span>Dynamic density functional theory with hydrodynamic interactions: Theoretical development and application in the study of phase separation in gas-liquid systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Kikkinides, E. S.; Monson, P. A.</p> <p></p> <p>Building on recent developments in dynamic density functional theory, we have developed a version of the theory that includes hydrodynamic interactions. This is achieved by combining the continuity and momentum equations eliminating velocity fields, so the resulting model equation contains only terms related to the fluid density and its time and spatial derivatives. The new model satisfies simultaneously continuity and momentum equations under the assumptions of constant dynamic or kinematic viscosity and small velocities and/or density gradients. We present applications of the theory to spinodal decomposition of subcritical temperatures for one-dimensional and three-dimensional density perturbations for both a van dermore » Waals fluid and for a lattice gas model in mean field theory. In the latter case, the theory provides a hydrodynamic extension to the recently studied dynamic mean field theory. We find that the theory correctly describes the transition from diffusive phase separation at short times to hydrodynamic behaviour at long times.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...635255Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...635255Z"><span>Spatiotemporal properties of microsaccades: Model predictions and experimental tests</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhou, Jian-Fang; Yuan, Wu-Jie; Zhou, Zhao</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>Microsaccades are involuntary and very small eye movements during fixation. Recently, the microsaccade-related neural dynamics have been extensively investigated both in experiments and by constructing neural network models. Experimentally, microsaccades also exhibit many behavioral properties. It’s well known that the behavior properties imply the underlying neural dynamical mechanisms, and so are determined by neural dynamics. The behavioral properties resulted from neural responses to microsaccades, however, are not yet understood and are rarely studied theoretically. Linking neural dynamics to behavior is one of the central goals of neuroscience. In this paper, we provide behavior predictions on spatiotemporal properties of microsaccades according to microsaccade-induced neural dynamics in a cascading network model, which includes both retinal adaptation and short-term depression (STD) at thalamocortical synapses. We also successfully give experimental tests in the statistical sense. Our results provide the first behavior description of microsaccades based on neural dynamics induced by behaving activity, and so firstly link neural dynamics to behavior of microsaccades. These results indicate strongly that the cascading adaptations play an important role in the study of microsaccades. Our work may be useful for further investigations of the microsaccadic behavioral properties and of the underlying neural dynamical mechanisms responsible for the behavioral properties.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790016472','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790016472"><span>Physiological system integrations with emphasis on the respiratory-cardiovascular system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gallagher, R. R.</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>The integration of two types of physiological system simulations is presented. The long term model is a circulatory system model which simulates long term blood flow variations and compartmental fluid shifts. The short term models simulate transient phenomena of the respiratory, thermoregulatory, and pulsatile cardiovascular systems as they respond to stimuli such as LBNP, exercise, and environmental gaseous variations. An overview of the interfacing approach is described. Descriptions of the variable interface for long term to short term and between the three short term models are given.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70021772','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70021772"><span>Short-term dynamics of intertidal microphytobenthic biomass. Mathematical modelling [La dynamique a court terme de la biomasse du microphytobenthos intertidal. Formalisation mathematique</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Guarini, J.-M.; Gros, P.; Blanchard, G.F.; Bacher, C.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>We formulate a deterministic mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the microphytobenthos of intertidal mudflats. It is 'minimal' because it only takes into account the essential processes governing the functioning of the system: the autotrophic production, the active upward and downward migrations of epipelic microalgae, the saturation of the mud surface by a biofilm of diatoms and the global net loss rates of biomass. According to the photic environment of the benthic diatoms inhabiting intertidal mudflats, and to their migration rhythm, the model is composed of two sub-systems of ordinary differential equations; they describe the simultaneous evolution of the biomass 'S' concentrated in the mud surface biofilm - the photic layer - and of the biomass 'F' diluted in the topmost centimetre of the mud - the aphotic layer. Qualitatively, the model solutions agree fairly well with the in situ observed dynamics of the S + F biomass. The study of the mathematical properties of the model, under some simplifying assumptions, shows the convergence of solutions to a stable cyclic equilibrium, whatever the frequencies of the physical synchronizers of the production. The sensitivity analysis reveals the necessity of a better knowledge of the processes of biomass losses, which so far are uncertain, and may further vary in space and time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24314744','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24314744"><span>Change of short-term memory effect in acute ischemic ventricular myocardium: a computational study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mei, Xi; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Zhi-cheng; Zhang, Zhen-xi</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>The ionic mechanism of change in short-term memory (STM) during acute myocardial ischemia has not been well understood. In this paper, an advanced guinea pig ventricular model developed by Luo and Rudy was used to investigate STM property of ischemic ventricular myocardium. STM response was calculated by testing the time to reach steady-state action potential duration (APD) after an abrupt shortening of basic cycling length (BCL) in the pacing protocol. Electrical restitution curves (RCs), which can simultaneously visualize multiple aspects of APD restitution and STM, were obtained from dynamic and local S1S2 restitution portrait (RP), which consist of a longer interval stimulus (S1) and a shorter interval stimulus (S2). The angle between dynamic RC and local S1S2 RC reflects the amount of STM. Our results indicated that compared with control (normal) condition, time constant of STM response in the ischemic condition decreased significantly. Meanwhile the angle which reflects STM amount is less in ischemic model than that in control model. By tracking the effect of ischemia on intracellular ion concentration and membrane currents, we declared that changes in membrane currents caused by ischemia exert subtle influences on STM; it is only the decline of intracellular calcium concentration that give rise to the most decrement of STM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...618639B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...618639B"><span>Emulating short-term synaptic dynamics with memristive devices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Berdan, Radu; Vasilaki, Eleni; Khiat, Ali; Indiveri, Giacomo; Serb, Alexandru; Prodromakis, Themistoklis</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Neuromorphic architectures offer great promise for achieving computation capacities beyond conventional Von Neumann machines. The essential elements for achieving this vision are highly scalable synaptic mimics that do not undermine biological fidelity. Here we demonstrate that single solid-state TiO2 memristors can exhibit non-associative plasticity phenomena observed in biological synapses, supported by their metastable memory state transition properties. We show that, contrary to conventional uses of solid-state memory, the existence of rate-limiting volatility is a key feature for capturing short-term synaptic dynamics. We also show how the temporal dynamics of our prototypes can be exploited to implement spatio-temporal computation, demonstrating the memristors full potential for building biophysically realistic neural processing systems.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5562308','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5562308"><span>A new model integrating short- and long-term aging of copper added to soils</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zeng, Saiqi; Li, Jumei; Wei, Dongpu</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Aging refers to the processes by which the bioavailability/toxicity, isotopic exchangeability, and extractability of metals added to soils decline overtime. We studied the characteristics of the aging process in copper (Cu) added to soils and the factors that affect this process. Then we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict the lability of Cu during the aging process with descriptions of the diffusion process using complementary error function. In the previous studies, two semi-mechanistic models to separately predict short-term and long-term aging of Cu added to soils were developed with individual descriptions of the diffusion process. In the short-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the square root of incubation time (t1/2), and in the long-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the natural logarithm of incubation time (lnt). Both models could predict short-term or long-term aging processes separately, but could not predict the short- and long-term aging processes by one model. By analyzing and combining the two models, we found that the short- and long-term behaviors of the diffusion process could be described adequately using the complementary error function. The effect of temperature on the diffusion process was obtained in this model as well. The model can predict the aging process continuously based on four factors—soil pH, incubation time, soil organic matter content and temperature. PMID:28820888</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2678675','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2678675"><span>Remembering the past and imagining the future</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Byrne, Patrick; Becker, Suzanna; Burgess, Neil</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The neural mechanisms underlying spatial cognition are modelled, integrating neuronal, systems and behavioural data, and addressing the relationships between long-term memory, short-term memory and imagery, and between egocentric and allocentric and visual and idiothetic representations. Long-term spatial memory is modeled as attractor dynamics within medial-temporal allocentric representations, and short-term memory as egocentric parietal representations driven by perception, retrieval and imagery, and modulated by directed attention. Both encoding and retrieval/ imagery require translation between egocentric and allocentric representations, mediated by posterior parietal and retrosplenial areas and utilizing head direction representations in Papez’s circuit. Thus hippocampus effectively indexes information by real or imagined location, while Papez’s circuit translates to imagery or from perception according to the direction of view. Modulation of this translation by motor efference allows “spatial updating” of representations, while prefrontal simulated motor efference allows mental exploration. The alternating temporo-parietal flows of information are organized by the theta rhythm. Simulations demonstrate the retrieval and updating of familiar spatial scenes, hemispatial neglect in memory, and the effects on hippocampal place cell firing of lesioned head direction representations and of conflicting visual and ideothetic inputs. PMID:17500630</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5339053','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5339053"><span>Bursts of seizures in long-term recordings of human focal epilepsy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Karoly, Philippa J.; Nurse, Ewan S.; Freestone, Dean R.; Ung, Hoameng; Cook, Mark J.; Boston, Ray</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Summary Objective We report on temporally clustered seizures detected from continuous long-term ambulatory human electroencephalographic data. The objective was to investigate short-term seizure clustering, which we have termed bursting, and consider implications for patient care, seizure prediction, and evaluating therapies. Methods Chronic ambulatory intracranial EEG data collected for the purpose of seizure prediction were annotated to identify seizure events. A detection algorithm was used to identify bursts of events. Burst events were compared to non-burst events to evaluate event dispersion, duration and dynamics. Results Bursts of seizures were present in six of fifteen patients, and detections were consistent over long term monitoring (> 2 years). Seizures within bursts are highly overdispersed compared to non-burst seizures. There was a complicated relationship between bursts and clinical seizures, although bursts were associated with multi-modal distributions of seizure duration, and poorer predictive outcomes. For three subjects, bursts demonstrated distinctive pre-ictal dynamics compared to clinical seizures. Significance We have previously hypothesized that there are distinct physiological pathways underlying short and long duration seizures. Here we show that burst seizures fall almost exclusively within the short population of seizure durations; however, a short duration was not sufficient to induce or imply bursting. We can therefore conclude that in addition to distinct mechanisms underlying seizure duration, there are separate factors regulating bursts of seizures. We show that bursts were a robust phenomenon in our patient cohort, which were consistent with overdispersed seizure rates, suggesting long-memory dynamics. PMID:28084639</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31J2323P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31J2323P"><span>A Non-hydrostatic Atmospheric Model for Global High-resolution Simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peng, X.; Li, X.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic atmosphere model, GRAPES_YY, is developed on the spherical Yin-Yang grid system in order to enforce global high-resolution weather simulation or forecasting at the CAMS/CMA. The quasi-uniform grid makes the computation be of high efficiency and free of pole problem. Full representation of the three-dimensional Coriolis force is considered in the governing equations. Under the constraint of third-order boundary interpolation, the model is integrated with the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian method using the same code on both zones. A static halo region is set to ensure computation of cross-boundary transport and updating Dirichlet-type boundary conditions in the solution process of elliptical equations with the Schwarz method. A series of dynamical test cases, including the solid-body advection, the balanced geostrophic flow, zonal flow over an isolated mountain, development of the Rossby-Haurwitz wave and a baroclinic wave, are carried out, and excellent computational stability and accuracy of the dynamic core has been confirmed. After implementation of the physical processes of long and short-wave radiation, cumulus convection, micro-physical transformation of water substances and the turbulent processes in the planetary boundary layer include surface layer vertical fluxes parameterization, a long-term run of the model is then put forward under an idealized aqua-planet configuration to test the model physics and model ability in both short-term and long-term integrations. In the aqua-planet experiment, the model shows an Earth-like structure of circulation. The time-zonal mean temperature, wind components and humidity illustrate reasonable subtropical zonal westerly jet, meridional three-cell circulation, tropical convection and thermodynamic structures. The specific SST and solar insolation being symmetric about the equator enhance the ITCZ and tropical precipitation, which concentrated in tropical region. Additional analysis and tuning of the model is still going on, and preliminary results have demonstrated the possibility of high-resolution application of the model to global weather prediction and even seasonal climate projection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H31H..02H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H31H..02H"><span>Is Fractal 1/f Scaling in Stream Chemistry Universal?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hrachowitz, M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Stream water chemistry data from catchments worldwide suggest that catchments act as filters that transform white noise, i.e. random input signals such as in precipitation, into 1/fαnoise whose slope in a power spectrum typically ranges between -0.5>α> -1.5. This previously lead to the hypothesis that catchments act as fractal filters, i.e. a slope of α=-1 may be a universal and intrinsic property of catchments. That would have considerable implications on the predictability of stream water chemistry, as both, temporal short- and long-range interdependence control the system response. While short memories and thus flatter slopes with α closer to 0 indicate poor short term but good long-term predictability, steeper slopes (α <<-1) indicate the opposite. In fractal systems, i.e. α=-1, this therefore leads to inherent problems of predicting both, short and long-term response patterns. The hypothesis of catchments acting as fractal filters remains to be tested more profoundly. It is not yet clear, if observed inter-catchment variations in α need to be interpreted as noise in the signal or if the variations underlie a systematic pattern and can be explained by some characteristic of catchment function. Here we will test the hypothesis that the spectral slope of stream water chemistry is not necessarily α=-1 and that catchments therefore do not inherently act as fractal filters. Further, it will be tested if closer links between the variations in spectral slope and hydrological function of catchments can be identified. The combined data-analysis and modelling study uses hydrochemical data (i.e. Cl-) from a wide range of catchments worldwide. The study catchments are physically contrasting, from distinct climate zones, and with distinct landscapes and vegetation. To identify patterns in the variations of α, firstly the power spectra of observed stream chemistry are compared with physical catchment characteristics using methods such as cluster analysis. In a subsequent step, the stream water dynamics of the study catchments are modelled using integrated catchment-scale models. Catchments for which the observed spectral signature can be meaningfully reproduced by the model, are used for further analysis, relating the modelled flux and state dynamics to variations in α, to explore links between flow processes α.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4714878','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4714878"><span>Data-Driven Engineering of Social Dynamics: Pattern Matching and Profit Maximization</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Peng, Huan-Kai; Lee, Hao-Chih; Pan, Jia-Yu; Marculescu, Radu</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we define a new problem related to social media, namely, the data-driven engineering of social dynamics. More precisely, given a set of observations from the past, we aim at finding the best short-term intervention that can lead to predefined long-term outcomes. Toward this end, we propose a general formulation that covers two useful engineering tasks as special cases, namely, pattern matching and profit maximization. By incorporating a deep learning model, we derive a solution using convex relaxation and quadratic-programming transformation. Moreover, we propose a data-driven evaluation method in place of the expensive field experiments. Using a Twitter dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our dynamics engineering approach for both pattern matching and profit maximization, and study the multifaceted interplay among several important factors of dynamics engineering, such as solution validity, pattern-matching accuracy, and intervention cost. Finally, the method we propose is general enough to work with multi-dimensional time series, so it can potentially be used in many other applications. PMID:26771830</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26771830','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26771830"><span>Data-Driven Engineering of Social Dynamics: Pattern Matching and Profit Maximization.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Peng, Huan-Kai; Lee, Hao-Chih; Pan, Jia-Yu; Marculescu, Radu</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we define a new problem related to social media, namely, the data-driven engineering of social dynamics. More precisely, given a set of observations from the past, we aim at finding the best short-term intervention that can lead to predefined long-term outcomes. Toward this end, we propose a general formulation that covers two useful engineering tasks as special cases, namely, pattern matching and profit maximization. By incorporating a deep learning model, we derive a solution using convex relaxation and quadratic-programming transformation. Moreover, we propose a data-driven evaluation method in place of the expensive field experiments. Using a Twitter dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our dynamics engineering approach for both pattern matching and profit maximization, and study the multifaceted interplay among several important factors of dynamics engineering, such as solution validity, pattern-matching accuracy, and intervention cost. Finally, the method we propose is general enough to work with multi-dimensional time series, so it can potentially be used in many other applications.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1418516-forecasting-climate-change-impacts-plant-populations-over-large-spatial-extents','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1418516-forecasting-climate-change-impacts-plant-populations-over-large-spatial-extents"><span>Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...</p> <p>2016-10-24</p> <p>Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1418516','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1418516"><span>Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.</p> <p></p> <p>Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188067','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188067"><span>Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29529092','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29529092"><span>A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N; Pantelous, Athanasios A; Zuev, Konstantin M</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5900061','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5900061"><span>Dynamical Landscape of Heart Rhythm in Long-Term Heart Transplant Recipients: A Way to Discern Erratic Rhythms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wdowczyk, Joanna; Makowiec, Danuta; Gruchała, Marcin; Wejer, Dorota; Struzik, Zbigniew R.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>It is commonly believed that higher values of heart rate variability (HRV) indices account for better organization of the network of feedback reflexes driving an organism's response to actual bodily needs. In order to evaluate this organization in heart transplant (HTX) recipients, 58 nocturnal Holter signals of 14 HTX patients were analyzed. Their dynamical properties were evaluated by short-term HRV indices and measures grounded on entropy. Estimates grouped according to the patients' clinical progress: free of complications versus with complications, and arranged in order of the length of time since the HTX, lead us to the conclusion that higher HRV is associated with a worse outcome for HTX patients. Moreover, short-term HRV indices that are constant, rather than increasing over time, serve well in the prognosis of the future state of a HTX patient. These findings suggest that increases observed in HRV indices are related to erratic rhythms resulting from remodeling of the cardiac tissue (including heterogeneous innervation) in long-term HTX patients. Therefore, we hypothesize that dynamical landscape markers (entropy and fragmentation measures together with the short-term HRV indices) can serve as a tool in the exploration of the genesis of (non-respiratory sinus) arrhythmia. PMID:29686620</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27513732','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27513732"><span>Seasonal variations drive short-term dynamics and partitioning of recently assimilated carbon in the foliage of adult beech and pine.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Desalme, Dorine; Priault, Pierrick; Gérant, Dominique; Dannoura, Masako; Maillard, Pascale; Plain, Caroline; Epron, Daniel</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>13 CO 2 pulse-labelling experiments were performed in situ on adult beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and pines (Pinus pinaster) at different phenological stages to study seasonal and interspecific short-term dynamics and partitioning of recently assimilated carbon (C) in leaves. Polar fraction (PF, including soluble sugars, amino acids and organic acids) and starch were purified from foliage sampled during a 10-d chase period. C contents, isotopic compositions and 13 C dynamics parameters were determined in bulk foliage, PF and starch. Decrease in 13 C amount in bulk foliage followed a two-pool exponential model highlighting 13 C partitioning between 'mobile' and 'stable' pools, the relative proportion of the latter being maximal in beech leaves in May. Early in the growing season, new foliage acted as a strong C sink in both species, but although young leaves and needles were already photosynthesizing, the latter were still supplied with previous-year needle photosynthates 2 months after budburst. Mean 13 C residence times (MRT) were minimal in summer, indicating fast photosynthate export to supply perennial organ growth in both species. In late summer, MRT differed between senescing beech leaves and overwintering pine needles. Seasonal variations of 13 C partitioning and dynamics in field-grown tree foliage are closely linked to phenological differences between deciduous and evergreen trees. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhyA..491..984M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhyA..491..984M"><span>Dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mo, Bin; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>This paper aims to examine the dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market. The analysis also delves more deeply into the effect of the global financial crisis on the short-term relationship. We use fractional cointegration to analyze the long-term memory feature of these volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-term equilibrium. The DCC-MGARCH model is employed to investigate the time-varying long-term linkages among these markets. The Krystou-Labys non-linear asymmetric Granger causality method is used to examine the effect of the financial crisis. We find that (i) there is clearly a long-term dependence among these markets; (ii) the dynamic gold-oil relationship is always positive and the oil-dollar relationship is always negative; and (iii) after the crisis, we can observe evidence of a positive non-linear causal relationship from gold to US dollar and US dollar to crude oil, and a negative non-linear causal relationship from US dollar to gold. Investors who want to construct their optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA513137','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA513137"><span>Acoustic Impact of Short-Term Ocean Variability in the Okinawa Trough</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-01-20</p> <p>nature run: Generalized Digital Environment Model ( GDEM ) 3.0 climatologyfl], Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) synthetic profiles[2], Navy...potentially preferred for a particular class of applications, and thus a possible source of sound speed for estimates of acoustic transmission. Three, GDEM ...MODAS, and NCODA, are statistical products, and the other three are dynamic forecasts from NCOM. GDEM is a climatology based solely on historical</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22557995','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22557995"><span>Agent-based modeling approach of immune defense against spores of opportunistic human pathogenic fungi.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tokarski, Christian; Hummert, Sabine; Mech, Franziska; Figge, Marc Thilo; Germerodt, Sebastian; Schroeter, Anja; Schuster, Stefan</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Opportunistic human pathogenic fungi like the ubiquitous fungus Aspergillus fumigatus are a major threat to immunocompromised patients. An impaired immune system renders the body vulnerable to invasive mycoses that often lead to the death of the patient. While the number of immunocompromised patients is rising with medical progress, the process, and dynamics of defense against invaded and ready to germinate fungal conidia are still insufficiently understood. Besides macrophages, neutrophil granulocytes form an important line of defense in that they clear conidia. Live imaging shows the interaction of those phagocytes and conidia as a dynamic process of touching, dragging, and phagocytosis. To unravel strategies of phagocytes on the hunt for conidia an agent-based modeling approach is used, implemented in NetLogo. Different modes of movement of phagocytes are tested regarding their clearing efficiency: random walk, short-term persistence in their recent direction, chemotaxis of chemokines excreted by conidia, and communication between phagocytes. While the short-term persistence hunting strategy turned out to be superior to the simple random walk, following a gradient of chemokines released by conidial agents is even better. The advantage of communication between neutrophilic agents showed a strong dependency on the spatial scale of the focused area and the distribution of the pathogens.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818499R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818499R"><span>The economic-engineering of smart-meter-enabled dynamic water pricing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The introduction of smart metering is set to revolutionize in many ways how water utilities conduct their business and interact with customers. Among those is the possibility of changing water prices during the day or seasonally. This work presents the engineering and economic implications of dynamic pricing implemented at two distinct timescales, 1) a seasonal scarcity tariff aimed at reducing consumption during drier period or droughts, and 2) time-of-day tariffs aimed at reducing peak-hour water use. Sophisticated dynamic pricing schemes are hard to understand for many users, and this reduces their social acceptability because it gives the impression that they help the water utility charge more for water. Therefore, we focus on simple pricing mechanisms, and estimating their short- and long-term benefits for communication with regulators and consumers. Seasonal scarcity tariffs are designed by adjusting prices such that the increased expenditure is commensurate with economic gains in other uses such as the environment and recreation. These tariffs could promote efficient use of limited supplies during relatively dry periods. In the long term, consistently reducing water consumption when it is scarce delays the need to invest in new sources of supply meant only for dry periods (e.g. desalination) which can bring down supply costs in the long-term. Reducing peak-hour use through time-of-day tariffs in the short run decreases peak-hour energy consumption and delays maintenance by reducing the likelihood of pipe burst. In the long run it delays capacity expansion of the distribution network. We develop and demonstrate a simple economic model of water supply to a generic city to demonstrate these concepts. This simple model is applied to London's water supply to better understand the scale of potential price changes and savings given London's environmental flow demands.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860029592&hterms=electromagnetism&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Delectromagnetism','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860029592&hterms=electromagnetism&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Delectromagnetism"><span>On the coupling of fluid dynamics and electromagnetism at the top of the earth's core</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Benton, E. R.</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>A kinematic approach to short-term geomagnetism has recently been based upon pre-Maxwell frozen-flux electromagnetism. A complete dynamic theory requires coupling fluid dynamics to electromagnetism. A geophysically plausible simplifying assumption for the vertical vorticity balance, namely that the vertical Lorentz torque is negligible, is introduced and its consequences are developed. The simplified coupled magnetohydrodynamic system is shown to conserve a variety of magnetic and vorticity flux integrals. These provide constraints on eligible models for the geomagnetic main field, its secular variation, and the horizontal fluid motions at the top of the core, and so permit a number of tests of the underlying assumptions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26308858','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26308858"><span>On the Morphology of a Growing City: A Heuristic Experiment Merging Static Economics with Dynamic Geography.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Delloye, Justin; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we aim at exploring how individual location decisions affect the shape of a growing city and, more precisely, how they may add up to a configuration that diverges from equilibrium configurations formulated ex-ante. To do so, we provide a two-sector city model merging a static equilibrium analysis with agent-based simulations. Results show that under strong agglomeration effects, urban development is monotonic and ends up with circular, monocentric long-term configurations. For low agglomeration effects however, elongated and multicentric urban configurations may emerge. The occurrence and underlying dynamics of these configurations are also discussed regarding commuting costs and the distance-decay of agglomeration economies between firms. To sum up, our paper warns urban planning policy makers against the difference that may stand between appropriate long-term perspectives, represented here by analytic equilibrium configurations, and short-term urban configurations, simulated here by a multi-agent system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29642773','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29642773"><span>DCE-MRI-Derived Volume Transfer Constant (Ktrans) and DWI Apparent Diffusion Coefficient as Predictive Markers of Short- and Long-Term Efficacy of Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Esophageal Cancer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ye, Zhi-Min; Dai, Shu-Jun; Yan, Feng-Qin; Wang, Lei; Fang, Jun; Fu, Zhen-Fu; Wang, Yue-Zhen</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This study aimed to evaluate both the short- and long-term efficacies of chemoradiotherapy in relation to the treatment of esophageal cancer . This was achieved through the use of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging-derived volume transfer constant and diffusion weighted imaging-derived apparent diffusion coefficient . Patients with esophageal cancer were assigned into the sensitive and resistant groups based on respective efficacies in chemoradiotherapy. Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion weighted imaging were used to measure volume transfer constant and apparent diffusion coefficient, while computed tomography was used to calculate tumor size reduction rate. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted to analyze correlation between volume transfer constant, apparent diffusion coefficient, and the tumor size reduction rate. Receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to analyze the short-term efficacy of volume transfer constant and apparent diffusion coefficient, while Kaplan-Meier curve was employed for survival rate analysis. Cox proportional hazard model was used for the risk factors for prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer. Our results indicated reduced levels of volume transfer constant, while increased levels were observed in ADC min , ADC mean , and ADC max following chemoradiotherapy. A negative correlation was determined between ADC min , ADC mean , and ADC max , as well as in the tumor size reduction rate prior to chemoradiotherapy, whereas a positive correlation was uncovered postchemoradiotherapy. Volume transfer constant was positively correlated with tumor size reduction rate both before and after chemoradiotherapy. The 5-year survival rate of patients with esophageal cancer having high ADC min , ADC mean , and ADC max and volume transfer constant before chemoradiotherapy was greater than those with respectively lower values. According to the Cox proportional hazard model, ADC mean , clinical stage, degree of differentiation, and tumor stage were all confirmed as being independent risk factors in regard to the prognosis of patients with EC. The findings of this study provide evidence suggesting that volume transfer constant and apparent diffusion coefficient as being tools allowing for the evaluation of both the short- and long-term efficacies of chemoradiotherapy esophageal cancer treatment.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21145634','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21145634"><span>A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMEP33E..08K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMEP33E..08K"><span>Glacier, Glacial Lake, and Ecological Response Dynamics of the Imja Glacier-Lake-Moraine System, Nepal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kargel, J. S.; Shugar, D. H.; Leonard, G. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Harrison, S.; Shrestha, A. B.; Mool, P. K.; Karki, A.; Regmi, D.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Glacier response dynamics—involving a host of processes—produce a sequence of short- to long-term delayed responses to any step-wise, oscillating, or continuous trending climatic perturbation. We present analysis of Imja Lake, Nepal and examine its thinning and retreat and a sequence of the detachment of tributaries; the inception and growth of Imja Lake and concomitant glacier retreat, thinning, and stagnation, and relationships to lake dynamics; the response dynamics of the ice-cored moraine; the development of the local ecosystem; prediction of short-term dynamical responses to lake lowering (glacier lake outburst flood—GLOF—mitigation); and prospects for coming decades. The evolution of this glacier system provides a case study by which the global record of GLOFs can be assessed in terms of climate change attribution. We define three response times: glacier dynamical response time (for glacier retreat, thinning, and slowing of ice flow), limnological response time (lake growth), and GLOF trigger time (for a variety of hazardous trigger events). Lake lowering (to be completed in August 2016; see AGU abstract by D. Regmi et al.) will reduce hazards, but we expect that the elongation of the lake and retreat of the glacier will continue for decades after a pause in 2016-2017. The narrowing of the moraine dam due to thaw degradation of the ice-cored end moraine means that the hazard due to Imja Lake will soon again increase. We examine both long-term response dynamics, and two aspects of Himalayan glaciers that have very rapid responses: the area of Imja Lake fluctuates seasonally and even with subseasonal weather variations in response to changes in lake temperature and glacier meltback; and as known from other studies, glacier flow speed can vary between years and even on shorter timescales. The long-term development and stabilization of glacial moraines and small lacustrine plains in drained lake basins impacts the development of local ecosystems; satellite imaging reveals details of vegetational primary succession; and we will present an observations-constrained model of bird habitat in relationship to glacial geomorphology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/991843','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/991843"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.</p> <p></p> <p>Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combatmore » the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=time+AND+perspective&pg=2&id=EJ910631','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=time+AND+perspective&pg=2&id=EJ910631"><span>Time Perspective and Identity Formation: Short-Term Longitudinal Dynamics in College Students</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Luyckx, Koen; Lens, Willy; Smits, Ilse; Goossens, Luc</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Planning for the future and developing a personalized identity are conceived of as important developmental tasks that adolescents and emerging adults are confronted with on the pathway to adulthood. The present study set out to examine whether both tasks develop in tandem by using a short-term longitudinal dataset consisting of 371 college…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1332687','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1332687"><span>Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos</p> <p>2015-11-02</p> <p>As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2R, which we address inmore » this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions, simplifying the complexity of big data challenge associated with D 2R.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.707a2036A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.707a2036A"><span>Comparative Investigation of Normal Modes and Molecular Dynamics of Hepatitis C NS5B Protein</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Asafi, M. S.; Yildirim, A.; Tekpinar, M.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Understanding dynamics of proteins has many practical implications in terms of finding a cure for many protein related diseases. Normal mode analysis and molecular dynamics methods are widely used physics-based computational methods for investigating dynamics of proteins. In this work, we studied dynamics of Hepatitis C NS5B protein with molecular dynamics and normal mode analysis. Principal components obtained from a 100 nanoseconds molecular dynamics simulation show good overlaps with normal modes calculated with a coarse-grained elastic network model. Coarse-grained normal mode analysis takes at least an order of magnitude shorter time. Encouraged by this good overlaps and short computation times, we analyzed further low frequency normal modes of Hepatitis C NS5B. Motion directions and average spatial fluctuations have been analyzed in detail. Finally, biological implications of these motions in drug design efforts against Hepatitis C infections have been elaborated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25852610','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25852610"><span>Limitless capacity: a dynamic object-oriented approach to short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Macken, Bill; Taylor, John; Jones, Dylan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The notion of capacity-limited processing systems is a core element of cognitive accounts of limited and variable performance, enshrined within the short-term memory construct. We begin with a detailed critical analysis of the conceptual bases of this view and argue that there are fundamental problems - ones that go to the heart of cognitivism more generally - that render it untenable. In place of limited capacity systems, we propose a framework for explaining performance that focuses on the dynamic interplay of three aspects of any given setting: the particular task that must be accomplished, the nature and form of the material upon which the task must be performed, and the repertoire of skills and perceptual-motor functions possessed by the participant. We provide empirical examples of the applications of this framework in areas of performance typically accounted for by reference to capacity-limited short-term memory processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22120748','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22120748"><span>Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie</p> <p>2012-05-01</p> <p>Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28866382','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28866382"><span>Robustness of intra urban land-use regression models for ultrafine particles and black carbon based on mobile monitoring.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kerckhoffs, Jules; Hoek, Gerard; Vlaanderen, Jelle; van Nunen, Erik; Messier, Kyle; Brunekreef, Bert; Gulliver, John; Vermeulen, Roel</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Land-use regression (LUR) models for ultrafine particles (UFP) and Black Carbon (BC) in urban areas have been developed using short-term stationary monitoring or mobile platforms in order to capture the high variability of these pollutants. However, little is known about the comparability of predictions of mobile and short-term stationary models and especially the validity of these models for assessing residential exposures and the robustness of model predictions developed in different campaigns. We used an electric car to collect mobile measurements (n = 5236 unique road segments) and short-term stationary measurements (3 × 30min, n = 240) of UFP and BC in three Dutch cities (Amsterdam, Utrecht, Maastricht) in 2014-2015. Predictions of LUR models based on mobile measurements were compared to (i) measured concentrations at the short-term stationary sites, (ii) LUR model predictions based on short-term stationary measurements at 1500 random addresses in the three cities, (iii) externally obtained home outdoor measurements (3 × 24h samples; n = 42) and (iv) predictions of a LUR model developed based upon a 2013 mobile campaign in two cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam). Despite the poor model R 2 of 15%, the ability of mobile UFP models to predict measurements with longer averaging time increased substantially from 36% for short-term stationary measurements to 57% for home outdoor measurements. In contrast, the mobile BC model only predicted 14% of the variation in the short-term stationary sites and also 14% of the home outdoor sites. Models based upon mobile and short-term stationary monitoring provided fairly high correlated predictions of UFP concentrations at 1500 randomly selected addresses in the three Dutch cities (R 2 = 0.64). We found higher UFP predictions (of about 30%) based on mobile models opposed to short-term model predictions and home outdoor measurements with no clear geospatial patterns. The mobile model for UFP was stable over different settings as the model predicted concentration levels highly correlated to predictions made by a previously developed LUR model with another spatial extent and in a different year at the 1500 random addresses (R 2 = 0.80). In conclusion, mobile monitoring provided robust LUR models for UFP, valid to use in epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021348','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021348"><span>Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5398685','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5398685"><span>Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Load information plays an important role in deregulated electricity markets, since it is the primary factor to make critical decisions on production planning, day-to-day operations, unit commitment and economic dispatch. Being able to predict the load for a short term, which covers one hour to a few days, equips power generation facilities and traders with an advantage. With the deregulation of electricity markets, a variety of short term load forecasting models are developed. Deregulation in Turkish Electricity Market has started in 2001 and liberalization is still in progress with rules being effective in its predefined schedule. However, there is a very limited number of studies for Turkish Market. In this study, we introduce two different models for current Turkish Market using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and present their comparative performances. Building models that cope with the dynamic nature of deregulated market and are able to run in real-time is the main contribution of this study. We also use our ANN based model to evaluate the effect of several factors, which are claimed to have effect on electrical load. PMID:28426739</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28426739','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28426739"><span>Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bozkurt, Ömer Özgür; Biricik, Göksel; Tayşi, Ziya Cihan</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Load information plays an important role in deregulated electricity markets, since it is the primary factor to make critical decisions on production planning, day-to-day operations, unit commitment and economic dispatch. Being able to predict the load for a short term, which covers one hour to a few days, equips power generation facilities and traders with an advantage. With the deregulation of electricity markets, a variety of short term load forecasting models are developed. Deregulation in Turkish Electricity Market has started in 2001 and liberalization is still in progress with rules being effective in its predefined schedule. However, there is a very limited number of studies for Turkish Market. In this study, we introduce two different models for current Turkish Market using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and present their comparative performances. Building models that cope with the dynamic nature of deregulated market and are able to run in real-time is the main contribution of this study. We also use our ANN based model to evaluate the effect of several factors, which are claimed to have effect on electrical load.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159780','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159780"><span>Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Beerens, James M.; Frederick, Peter C; Noonburg, Erik G; Gawlik, Dale E.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio-temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short-term water management and long-term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20-year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km2 area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily-multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short- and long-term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018FrEaS...6...55W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018FrEaS...6...55W"><span>Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufrière Hills Volcano</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wolpert, Robert L.; Spiller, Elaine T.; Calder, Eliza S.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>To mitigate volcanic hazards from pyroclastic density currents, volcanologists generate hazard maps that provide long-term forecasts of areas of potential impact. Several recent efforts in the field develop new statistical methods for application of flow models to generate fully probabilistic hazard maps that both account for, and quantify, uncertainty. However a limitation to the use of most statistical hazard models, and a key source of uncertainty within them, is the time-averaged nature of the datasets by which the volcanic activity is statistically characterized. Where the level, or directionality, of volcanic activity frequently changes, e.g. during protracted eruptive episodes, or at volcanoes that are classified as persistently active, it is not appropriate to make short term forecasts based on longer time-averaged metrics of the activity. Thus, here we build, fit and explore dynamic statistical models for the generation of pyroclastic density current from Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on Montserrat including their respective collapse direction and flow volumes based on 1996-2008 flow datasets. The development of this approach allows for short-term behavioral changes to be taken into account in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments. We show that collapses from the SHV lava dome follow a clear pattern, and that a series of smaller flows in a given direction often culminate in a larger collapse and thereafter directionality of the flows change. Such models enable short term forecasting (weeks to months) that can reflect evolving conditions such as dome and crater morphology changes and non-stationary eruptive behavior such as extrusion rate variations. For example, the probability of inundation of the Belham Valley in the first 180 days of a forecast period is about twice as high for lava domes facing Northwest toward that valley as it is for domes pointing East toward the Tar River Valley. As rich multi-parametric volcano monitoring dataset become increasingly available, eruption forecasting is becoming an increasingly viable and important research field. We demonstrate an approach to utilize such data in order to appropriately 'tune' probabilistic hazard assessments for pyroclastic flows. Our broader objective with development of this method is to help advance time-dependent volcanic hazard assessment, by bridging the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29758700','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29758700"><span>Memory-induced nonlinear dynamics of excitation in cardiac diseases.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Landaw, Julian; Qu, Zhilin</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Excitable cells, such as cardiac myocytes, exhibit short-term memory, i.e., the state of the cell depends on its history of excitation. Memory can originate from slow recovery of membrane ion channels or from accumulation of intracellular ion concentrations, such as calcium ion or sodium ion concentration accumulation. Here we examine the effects of memory on excitation dynamics in cardiac myocytes under two diseased conditions, early repolarization and reduced repolarization reserve, each with memory from two different sources: slow recovery of a potassium ion channel and slow accumulation of the intracellular calcium ion concentration. We first carry out computer simulations of action potential models described by differential equations to demonstrate complex excitation dynamics, such as chaos. We then develop iterated map models that incorporate memory, which accurately capture the complex excitation dynamics and bifurcations of the action potential models. Finally, we carry out theoretical analyses of the iterated map models to reveal the underlying mechanisms of memory-induced nonlinear dynamics. Our study demonstrates that the memory effect can be unmasked or greatly exacerbated under certain diseased conditions, which promotes complex excitation dynamics, such as chaos. The iterated map models reveal that memory converts a monotonic iterated map function into a nonmonotonic one to promote the bifurcations leading to high periodicity and chaos.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97d2414L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97d2414L"><span>Memory-induced nonlinear dynamics of excitation in cardiac diseases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Landaw, Julian; Qu, Zhilin</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Excitable cells, such as cardiac myocytes, exhibit short-term memory, i.e., the state of the cell depends on its history of excitation. Memory can originate from slow recovery of membrane ion channels or from accumulation of intracellular ion concentrations, such as calcium ion or sodium ion concentration accumulation. Here we examine the effects of memory on excitation dynamics in cardiac myocytes under two diseased conditions, early repolarization and reduced repolarization reserve, each with memory from two different sources: slow recovery of a potassium ion channel and slow accumulation of the intracellular calcium ion concentration. We first carry out computer simulations of action potential models described by differential equations to demonstrate complex excitation dynamics, such as chaos. We then develop iterated map models that incorporate memory, which accurately capture the complex excitation dynamics and bifurcations of the action potential models. Finally, we carry out theoretical analyses of the iterated map models to reveal the underlying mechanisms of memory-induced nonlinear dynamics. Our study demonstrates that the memory effect can be unmasked or greatly exacerbated under certain diseased conditions, which promotes complex excitation dynamics, such as chaos. The iterated map models reveal that memory converts a monotonic iterated map function into a nonmonotonic one to promote the bifurcations leading to high periodicity and chaos.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996Natur.381..767G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996Natur.381..767G"><span>Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ghashghaie, S.; Breymann, W.; Peinke, J.; Talkner, P.; Dodge, Y.</p> <p>1996-06-01</p> <p>THE availability of high-frequency data for financial markets has made it possible to study market dynamics on timescales of less than a day1. For foreign exchange (FX) rates Müller et al.2 have shown that there is a net flow of information from long to short timescales: the behaviour of long-term traders (who watch the markets only from time to time) influences the behaviour of short-term traders (who watch the markets continuously). Motivated by this hierarchical feature, we have studied FX market dynamics in more detail, and report here an analogy between these dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence3-8. Specifically, the relationship between the probability density of FX price changes (δx) and the time delay (δt) (Fig. la) is much the same as the relationship between the probability density of the velocity differences (δv) of two points in a turbulent flow and their spatial separation δr (Fig. 1b). Guided by this similarity we claim that there is an information cascade in FX market dynamics that corresponds to the energy cascade in hydrodynamic turbulence. On the basis of this analogy we can now rationalize the statistics of FX price differences at different time delays, which is important for, for example, option pricing. The analogy also provides a conceptual framework for understanding the short-term dynamics of speculative markets.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=forensics&pg=7&id=EJ1009403','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=forensics&pg=7&id=EJ1009403"><span>The Short- to Medium-Term Predictive Accuracy of Static and Dynamic Risk Assessment Measures in a Secure Forensic Hospital</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D. M.; Ogloff, James R. P.; Daffern, Michael</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=pages+AND+Web&pg=5&id=ED577407','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=pages+AND+Web&pg=5&id=ED577407"><span>Short Term International Study for Teachers as a Form of Experiential Learning: A Case Study of American Educators in Turkey</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Berk, Zulfikar</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>This dissertation is a case study of the experiences and perspectives of nine US teachers who participated in a short-term international study tour to Turkey, from the theoretical perspectives of global education and experiential learning. It examines how that experience shaped the teachers' understandings of global dynamics, cultural differences…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5097148','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5097148"><span>Integration and segregation of large-scale brain networks during short-term task automatization</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mohr, Holger; Wolfensteller, Uta; Betzel, Richard F.; Mišić, Bratislav; Sporns, Olaf; Richiardi, Jonas; Ruge, Hannes</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The human brain is organized into large-scale functional networks that can flexibly reconfigure their connectivity patterns, supporting both rapid adaptive control and long-term learning processes. However, it has remained unclear how short-term network dynamics support the rapid transformation of instructions into fluent behaviour. Comparing fMRI data of a learning sample (N=70) with a control sample (N=67), we find that increasingly efficient task processing during short-term practice is associated with a reorganization of large-scale network interactions. Practice-related efficiency gains are facilitated by enhanced coupling between the cingulo-opercular network and the dorsal attention network. Simultaneously, short-term task automatization is accompanied by decreasing activation of the fronto-parietal network, indicating a release of high-level cognitive control, and a segregation of the default mode network from task-related networks. These findings suggest that short-term task automatization is enabled by the brain's ability to rapidly reconfigure its large-scale network organization involving complementary integration and segregation processes. PMID:27808095</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1810831P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1810831P"><span>SWIFT2: Software for continuous ensemble short-term streamflow forecasting for use in research and operations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Perraud, Jean-Michel; Bennett, James C.; Bridgart, Robert; Robertson, David E.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Research undertaken through the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) has laid the foundations for continuous deterministic and ensemble short-term forecasting services. One output of this research is the software Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools version 2 (SWIFT2). SWIFT2 is developed for use in research on short term streamflow forecasting techniques as well as operational forecasting services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The variety of uses in research and operations requires a modular software system whose components can be arranged in applications that are fit for each particular purpose, without unnecessary software duplication. SWIFT2 modelling structures consist of sub-areas of hydrologic models, nodes and links with in-stream routing and reservoirs. While this modelling structure is customary, SWIFT2 is built from the ground up for computational and data intensive applications such as ensemble forecasts necessary for the estimation of the uncertainty in forecasts. Support for parallel computation on multiple processors or on a compute cluster is a primary use case. A convention is defined to store large multi-dimensional forecasting data and its metadata using the netCDF library. SWIFT2 is written in modern C++ with state of the art software engineering techniques and practices. A salient technical feature is a well-defined application programming interface (API) to facilitate access from different applications and technologies. SWIFT2 is already seamlessly accessible on Windows and Linux via packages in R, Python, Matlab and .NET languages such as C# and F#. Command line or graphical front-end applications are also feasible. This poster gives an overview of the technology stack, and illustrates the resulting features of SWIFT2 for users. Research and operational uses share the same common core C++ modelling shell for consistency, but augmented by different software modules suitable for each context. The accessibility via interactive modelling languages is particularly amenable to using SWIFT2 in exploratory research, with a dynamic and versatile experimental modelling workflow. This does not come at the expense of the stability and reliability required for use in operations, where only mature and stable components are used.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22144385','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22144385"><span>Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R</p> <p>2012-01-19</p> <p>Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23278063','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23278063"><span>Characterization of complexities in combustion instability in a lean premixed gas-turbine model combustor.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gotoda, Hiroshi; Amano, Masahito; Miyano, Takaya; Ikawa, Takuya; Maki, Koshiro; Tachibana, Shigeru</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>We characterize complexities in combustion instability in a lean premixed gas-turbine model combustor by nonlinear time series analysis to evaluate permutation entropy, fractal dimensions, and short-term predictability. The dynamic behavior in combustion instability near lean blowout exhibits a self-affine structure and is ascribed to fractional Brownian motion. It undergoes chaos by the onset of combustion oscillations with slow amplitude modulation. Our results indicate that nonlinear time series analysis is capable of characterizing complexities in combustion instability close to lean blowout.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1188869-co2-emissions-mitigation-fossil-fuel-markets-dynamic-international-aspects-climate-policies','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1188869-co2-emissions-mitigation-fossil-fuel-markets-dynamic-international-aspects-climate-policies"><span>CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem</p> <p></p> <p>This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: thoughmore » coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=government&pg=3&id=EJ1159381','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=government&pg=3&id=EJ1159381"><span>Australian Teacher Education: Inside-Out, Outside-In, Backwards and Forwards?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Ling, Lorraine M.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Teacher Education in Australia seems to be in a dynamic and constant cycle of review and change. Policy governing teacher education has also been eminently changeable and dynamic. To some extent this stems from three year terms for governments where a short term and expedient political view is taken. There has also been ongoing centre-periphery…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790017558','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790017558"><span>Study report on interfacing major physiological subsystem models: An approach for developing a whole-body algorithm</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Fitzjerrell, D. G.; Grounds, D. J.; Leonard, J. I.</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>Using a whole body algorithm simulation model, a wide variety and large number of stresses as well as different stress levels were simulated including environmental disturbances, metabolic changes, and special experimental situations. Simulation of short term stresses resulted in simultaneous and integrated responses from the cardiovascular, respiratory, and thermoregulatory subsystems and the accuracy of a large number of responding variables was verified. The capability of simulating significantly longer responses was demonstrated by validating a four week bed rest study. In this case, the long term subsystem model was found to reproduce many experimentally observed changes in circulatory dynamics, body fluid-electrolyte regulation, and renal function. The value of systems analysis and the selected design approach for developing a whole body algorithm was demonstrated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..419..122C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..419..122C"><span>An autocatalytic network model for stock markets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EaFut...6..565R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EaFut...6..565R"><span>Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rickels, W.; Reith, F.; Keller, D.; Oschlies, A.; Quaas, M. F.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A43H3372H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A43H3372H"><span>Global Air Quality and Climate Impacts of Mitigating Short-lived Climate Pollution in China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harper, K.; Unger, N.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, G.; Klimont, Z.; Schoepp, W.; Wagner, F.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>China is a major emitter of harmful air pollutants, including the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and their precursors. Implementation of pollution control technologies provides a mechanism for simultaneously protecting human and ecosystem health and achieving near-term climate co-benefits; however, predicting the outcomes of technical and policy interventions is challenging because the SLCPs participate in both climate warming and cooling and share many common emission sources. Here, we present the results of a combined regional integrated assessment and global climate modeling study aimed at quantifying the near-term climate and air quality co-benefits of selective control of Chinese air pollution emissions. Results from IIASA's Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model indicate that methane emission reductions make up > 75% of possible CO2-equivalent emission reductions of the SLCPs and their precursors in China in 2030. A multi-pollutant emission reduction scenario incorporating the 2030 Chinese pollution control measures with the highest potential for future climate impact is applied to the NASA ModelE2 - Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (NASA ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon - chemistry - climate model to assess the regional and long-range impacts of Chinese SLCP mitigation measures. Using model simulations that incorporate dynamic methane emissions and photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emissions, we quantify the impacts of Chinese reductions of the short-lived air pollutants on radiative forcing and on surface ozone and particulate air pollution. Present-day modeled methane mole fractions are evaluated against SCIAMACHY methane columns and NOAA ESRL/GMD surface flask measurements.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24904403','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24904403"><span>Behavior control in the sensorimotor loop with short-term synaptic dynamics induced by self-regulating neurons.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Toutounji, Hazem; Pasemann, Frank</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The behavior and skills of living systems depend on the distributed control provided by specialized and highly recurrent neural networks. Learning and memory in these systems is mediated by a set of adaptation mechanisms, known collectively as neuronal plasticity. Translating principles of recurrent neural control and plasticity to artificial agents has seen major strides, but is usually hampered by the complex interactions between the agent's body and its environment. One of the important standing issues is for the agent to support multiple stable states of behavior, so that its behavioral repertoire matches the requirements imposed by these interactions. The agent also must have the capacity to switch between these states in time scales that are comparable to those by which sensory stimulation varies. Achieving this requires a mechanism of short-term memory that allows the neurocontroller to keep track of the recent history of its input, which finds its biological counterpart in short-term synaptic plasticity. This issue is approached here by deriving synaptic dynamics in recurrent neural networks. Neurons are introduced as self-regulating units with a rich repertoire of dynamics. They exhibit homeostatic properties for certain parameter domains, which result in a set of stable states and the required short-term memory. They can also operate as oscillators, which allow them to surpass the level of activity imposed by their homeostatic operation conditions. Neural systems endowed with the derived synaptic dynamics can be utilized for the neural behavior control of autonomous mobile agents. The resulting behavior depends also on the underlying network structure, which is either engineered or developed by evolutionary techniques. The effectiveness of these self-regulating units is demonstrated by controlling locomotion of a hexapod with 18 degrees of freedom, and obstacle-avoidance of a wheel-driven robot.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4033235','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4033235"><span>Behavior control in the sensorimotor loop with short-term synaptic dynamics induced by self-regulating neurons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Toutounji, Hazem; Pasemann, Frank</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The behavior and skills of living systems depend on the distributed control provided by specialized and highly recurrent neural networks. Learning and memory in these systems is mediated by a set of adaptation mechanisms, known collectively as neuronal plasticity. Translating principles of recurrent neural control and plasticity to artificial agents has seen major strides, but is usually hampered by the complex interactions between the agent's body and its environment. One of the important standing issues is for the agent to support multiple stable states of behavior, so that its behavioral repertoire matches the requirements imposed by these interactions. The agent also must have the capacity to switch between these states in time scales that are comparable to those by which sensory stimulation varies. Achieving this requires a mechanism of short-term memory that allows the neurocontroller to keep track of the recent history of its input, which finds its biological counterpart in short-term synaptic plasticity. This issue is approached here by deriving synaptic dynamics in recurrent neural networks. Neurons are introduced as self-regulating units with a rich repertoire of dynamics. They exhibit homeostatic properties for certain parameter domains, which result in a set of stable states and the required short-term memory. They can also operate as oscillators, which allow them to surpass the level of activity imposed by their homeostatic operation conditions. Neural systems endowed with the derived synaptic dynamics can be utilized for the neural behavior control of autonomous mobile agents. The resulting behavior depends also on the underlying network structure, which is either engineered or developed by evolutionary techniques. The effectiveness of these self-regulating units is demonstrated by controlling locomotion of a hexapod with 18 degrees of freedom, and obstacle-avoidance of a wheel-driven robot. PMID:24904403</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22830965','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22830965"><span>Presynaptic learning and memory with a persistent firing neuron and a habituating synapse: a model of short term persistent habituation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ramanathan, Kiruthika; Ning, Ning; Dhanasekar, Dhiviya; Li, Guoqi; Shi, Luping; Vadakkepat, Prahlad</p> <p>2012-08-01</p> <p>Our paper explores the interaction of persistent firing axonal and presynaptic processes in the generation of short term memory for habituation. We first propose a model of a sensory neuron whose axon is able to switch between passive conduction and persistent firing states, thereby triggering short term retention to the stimulus. Then we propose a model of a habituating synapse and explore all nine of the behavioral characteristics of short term habituation in a two neuron circuit. We couple the persistent firing neuron to the habituation synapse and investigate the behavior of short term retention of habituating response. Simulations show that, depending on the amount of synaptic resources, persistent firing either results in continued habituation or maintains the response, both leading to longer recovery times. The effectiveness of the model as an element in a bio-inspired memory system is discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1614915S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1614915S"><span>Enhancing the Arctic Mean Sea Surface and Mean Dynamic Topography with CryoSat-2 Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stenseng, Lars; Andersen, Ole B.; Knudsen, Per</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>A reliable mean sea surface (MSS) is essential to derive a good mean dynamic topography (MDT) and for the estimation of short and long-term changes in the sea surface. The lack of satellite radar altimetry observations above 82 degrees latitude means that existing mean sea surface models have been unreliable in the Arctic Ocean. We here present the latest DTU mean sea surface and mean dynamic topography models that includes CryoSat-2 data to improve the reliability in the Arctic Ocean. In an attempt to extrapolate across the gap above 82 degrees latitude the previously models included ICESat data, gravimetrical geoids, ocean circulation models and various combinations hereof. Unfortunately cloud cover and the short periods of operation has a negative effect on the number of ICESat sea surface observations. DTU13MSS and DTU13MDT are the new generation of state of the art global high-resolution models that includes CryoSat-2 data to extend the satellite radar altimetry coverage up to 88 degrees latitude. Furthermore the SAR and SARin capability of CryoSat-2 dramatically increases the amount of useable sea surface returns in sea-ice covered areas compared to conventional radar altimeters like ENVISAT and ERS-1/2. With the inclusion of CryoSat-2 data the new mean sea surface is improved by more than 20 cm above 82 degrees latitude compared with the previous generation of mean sea surfaces.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5439715','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5439715"><span>Host mediated inflammatory influence on glioblastoma multiforme recurrence following high-dose ionizing radiation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Gao, Xuefeng; Steber, Cole; Lee Breed, Jawon; Pollock, Caitlin; Ma, Lili; Hlatky, Lynn</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Despite optimal clinical treatment, glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) inevitably recurs. Standard treatment of GBM, exposes patients to radiation which kills tumor cells, but also modulates the molecular fingerprint of any surviving tumor cells and the cross-talk between those cells and the host. Considerable investigation of short-term (hours to days) post-irradiation tumor cell response has been undertaken, yet long-term responses (weeks to months) which are potentially even more informative of recurrence, have been largely overlooked. To better understand the potential of these processes to reshape tumor regrowth, molecular studies in conjunction with in silico modeling were used to examine short- and long-term growth dynamics. Despite survival of 2.55% and 0.009% following 8 or 16Gy, GBM cell populations in vitro showed a robust escape from cellular extinction and a return to pre-irradiated growth rates with no changes in long-term population doublings. In contrast, these same irradiated GBM cell populations injected in vivo elicited tumors which displayed significantly suppressed growth rates compared to their pre-irradiated counterparts. Transcriptome analysis days to weeks after irradiation revealed, 281 differentially expressed genes with a robust increase for cytokines, histones and C-C or C-X-C motif chemokines in irradiated cells. Strikingly, this same inflammatory signature in vivo for IL1A, CXCL1, IL6 and IL8 was increased in xenografts months after irradiation. Computational modeling of tumor cell dynamics indicated a host-mediated negative pressure on the surviving cells was a source of inhibition consistent with the findings resulting in suppressed tumor growth. Thus, tumor cells surviving irradiation may shift the landscape of population doubling through inflammatory mediators interacting with the host in a way that impacts tumor recurrence and affects the efficacy of subsequent therapies. Clues to more effective therapies may lie in the development and use of pre-clinical models of post-treatment response to target the source of inflammatory mediators that significantly alter cellular dynamics and molecular pathways in the early stages of tumor recurrence. PMID:28542439</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2987757','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2987757"><span>Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Background Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America. PMID:21034458</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5847242','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5847242"><span>A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N.; Zuev, Konstantin M.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks. PMID:29529092</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830060693&hterms=Frequency+Response+Analysis+Tool&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DFrequency%2BResponse%2BAnalysis%2BTool','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830060693&hterms=Frequency+Response+Analysis+Tool&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DFrequency%2BResponse%2BAnalysis%2BTool"><span>A modal analysis of flexible aircraft dynamics with handling qualities implications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Schmidt, D. K.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>A multivariable modal analysis technique is presented for evaluating flexible aircraft dynamics, focusing on meaningful vehicle responses to pilot inputs and atmospheric turbulence. Although modal analysis is the tool, vehicle time response is emphasized, and the analysis is performed on the linear, time-domain vehicle model. In evaluating previously obtained experimental pitch tracking data for a family of vehicle dynamic models, it is shown that flexible aeroelastic effects can significantly affect pitch attitude handling qualities. Consideration of the eigenvalues alone, of both rigid-body and aeroelastic modes, does not explain the simulation results. Modal analysis revealed, however, that although the lowest aeroelastic mode frequency was still three times greater than the short-period frequency, the rigid-body attitude response was dominated by this aeroelastic mode. This dominance was defined in terms of the relative magnitudes of the modal residues in selected vehicle responses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..DFDG32007K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..DFDG32007K"><span>Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16197673','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16197673"><span>Modular interdependency in complex dynamical systems.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Watson, Richard A; Pollack, Jordan B</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>Herbert A. Simon's characterization of modularity in dynamical systems describes subsystems as having dynamics that are approximately independent of those of other subsystems (in the short term). This fits with the general intuition that modules must, by definition, be approximately independent. In the evolution of complex systems, such modularity may enable subsystems to be modified and adapted independently of other subsystems, whereas in a nonmodular system, modifications to one part of the system may result in deleterious side effects elsewhere in the system. But this notion of modularity and its effect on evolvability is not well quantified and is rather simplistic. In particular, modularity need not imply that intermodule dependences are weak or unimportant. In dynamical systems this is acknowledged by Simon's suggestion that, in the long term, the dynamical behaviors of subsystems do interact with one another, albeit in an "aggregate" manner--but this kind of intermodule interaction is omitted in models of modularity for evolvability. In this brief discussion we seek to unify notions of modularity in dynamical systems with notions of how modularity affects evolvability. This leads to a quantifiable measure of modularity and a different understanding of its effect on evolvability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26385695','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26385695"><span>Short- and long-term behavioural, physiological and stoichiometric responses to predation risk indicate chronic stress and compensatory mechanisms.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Van Dievel, Marie; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Prey organisms are expected to use different short- and long-term responses to predation risk to avoid excessive costs. Contrasting both types of responses is important to identify chronic stress responses and possible compensatory mechanisms in order to better understand the full impact of predators on prey life history and population dynamics. Using larvae of the damselfly Enallagma cyathigerum, we contrasted the effects of short- and long-term predation risk, with special focus on consequences for body stoichiometry. Under short-term predation risk, larvae reduced growth rate, which was associated with a reduced food intake, increased metabolic rate and reduced glucose content. Under long-term predation risk, larvae showed chronic predator stress as indicated by persistent increases in metabolic rate and reduced food intake. Despite this, larvae were able to compensate for the short-term growth reduction under long-term predation risk by relying on physiological compensatory mechanisms, including reduced energy storage. Only under long-term predation risk did we observe an increase in body C:N ratio, as predicted under the general stress paradigm (GSP). Although this was caused by a predator-induced decrease in N content, there was no associated increase in C content. These stoichiometric changes could not be explained by GSP responses because, under chronic predation risk, there was no decrease in N-rich proteins or increase in C-rich fat and sugars; instead glycogen decreased. Our results highlight the importance of compensatory mechanisms and the value of explicitly integrating physiological mechanisms to obtain insights into the temporal dynamics of non-consumptive effects, including effects on body stoichiometry.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989PhDT........12L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989PhDT........12L"><span>A low-order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Legnani, Roberto</p> <p></p> <p>A low order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere coupled system is presented. The model atmosphere includes a hydrological cycle with cloud-radiation interaction. The model ocean is based on mixed layer dynamics with a parameterization of entrainment processes. The coupling takes place via transfer to momentum, sensible heat, latent heat and short wave and long wave radiation through the ocean surface. The dynamical formulation is that of the primitive equations of an equatorial beta-plane, with zonally periodic and meridionally infinite geometry. The system is expanded into the set of normal modes pertinent to the linear problem and severly truncated to a few modes; 54 degrees of freedom are retained. Some nonlinear terms of the equations are evaluated in physical space and then projected onto the functional space; other terms are evaluated directly in the functional space. Sensitivity tests to variations of the parameters are performed, and some results from 10-year initial value simulations are presented. The model is capable of supporting oscillations of different time scales, ranging from a few days to a few years; it prefers a particular zonally asymmetric state, but temporarily switches to a different (opposite) zonally asymmetric state in an event-like fashion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989PhDT........76L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989PhDT........76L"><span>a Low-Order Model of the Equatorial Ocean-Atmosphere System.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Legnani, Roberto</p> <p></p> <p>A low order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere coupled system is presented. The model atmosphere includes a hydrological cycle with cloud-radiation interaction. The model ocean is based on mixed layer dynamics with a parameterization of entrainment processes. The coupling takes place via transfer to momentum, sensible heat, latent heat and short -wave and long-wave radiation through the ocean surface. The dynamical formulation is that of the primitive equations of an equatorial beta-plane, with zonally periodic and meridionally infinite geometry. The system is expanded into the set of normal modes pertinent to the linear problem and severely truncated to a few modes; 54 degrees of freedom are retained. Some nonlinear terms of the equations are evaluated in physical space and then projected onto the functional space; other terms are evaluated directly in the functional space. Sensitivity tests to variations of the parameters are performed, and some results from 10-year initial value simulations are presented. The model is capable of supporting oscillations of different time scales, ranging from a few days to a few years; it prefers a particular zonally asymmetric state, but temporarily switches to a different (opposite) zonally asymmetric state in an event-like fashion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.B22C..08B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.B22C..08B"><span>Shading responses of carbon allocation dynamics in mountain grassland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bahn, M.; Lattanzi, F. A.; Brueggemann, N.; Siegwolf, R. T.; Richter, A.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Carbon (C) allocation strongly influences plant and soil processes. Global environmental changes can alter source - sink relations of plants with potential implications for C allocation. Short-term C allocation dynamics in ecosystems and their responses to environmental changes are still poorly understood. To analyze effects of assimilate supply (i.e. C source strength) on ecosystem C allocation dynamics and the role of non-structural carbohydrates, canopy sections of a mountain meadow were pulse labeled with 13CO2 and subsequently shaded for a week or left unshaded (control). Tracer dynamics in above- and belowground sucrose and starch pools were analysed and coupled using compartmental modelling. The hypothesis was tested that shading affects tracer dynamics in non-structural carbohydrates and diminishes the transfer of recently assimilated C to roots and their storage pools. In unshaded plots up to 40% of assimilated C was routed through short-term storage in shoot starch and sucrose to buffer day / night cycles in photosynthesis. Shoot- and root sucrose and shoot starch were kinetically closely related pools. The tracer dynamics of the modelled root sucrose pool corresponded well with those in soil CO2 efflux. Root starch played no role in buffering day / night cycles and likely acted as a seasonal store. Shading strongly reduced sucrose and starch concentrations in shoots but not roots and resulted in a massive reduction of leaf respiration, while root respiration was much less diminished. Shading affected tracer dynamics in sucrose and starch of shoots: shoot starch rapidly lost tracer, while sucrose transiently increased its tracer content. Surprisingly, shading did not alter the dynamics of root carbohydrates. Even under severe C limitation after one week of shading, tracer C continued to be incorporated in root starch. Also the amount of 13C incorporated in phospholipid fatty acids of soil microbial communities was not reduced by shading, though its residence time followed a changed pattern, suggesting an influence of C source strength on the utilization and turnover of recent plant-derived C. These findings will be discussed in the broader context of plant and ecosystem carbon allocation, with particular reference to the concepts of 'source versus sink strength' and 'passive versus active C storage'.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSA43B2148Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSA43B2148Y"><span>Supporting New Missions by Observing Simulation Experiments in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM: Initial Design, Challenges and Perspectives</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yudin, V. A.; England, S.; Liu, H.; Solomon, S. C.; Immel, T. J.; Maute, A. I.; Burns, A. G.; Foster, B.; Wu, Q.; Goncharenko, L. P.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We examine the capability of novel configurations of community models, WACCM-X and TIME-GCM, to support current and forthcoming space-borne missions to monitor the dynamics and composition of the Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere (MTI) system. In these configurations the lower atmosphere of WACCM-X is constrained by operational analyses and/or short-term forecasts provided by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) of Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA/GSFC. With the terrestrial weather of GEOS-5 and updated model physics the simulations in the MTI are capable to reproduce observed signatures of the perturbed wave dynamics and ion-neutral coupling during recent stratospheric warming events, short-term, annual and year-to-year variability of prevailing flows, planetary waves, tides, and composition. These 'terrestrial-weather' driven simulations with day-to-day variable solar and geomagnetic inputs can provide background state (first guess) and error statistics for the inverse algorithms of new NASA missions, ICON and GOLD at locations and time of observations in the MTI region. With two different viewing geometries (sun-synchronous and geostationary) of instruments, ICON and GOLD will provide complimentary global observations of temperature, winds and constituents to constrain the first-principle forecast models. This paper will discuss initial design of Observing Simulation Experiments (OSE) in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM. As recognized, OSE represent an excellent learning tool for designing and evaluating observing capabilities of novel sensors. They can guide on how to integrate/combine information from different instruments. The choice of assimilation schemes, forecast and observational errors will be discussed along with challenges and perspectives to constrain fast-varying tidal dynamics and their effects in models by combination of sun-synchronous and geostationary observations of ICON and GOLD. We will also discuss how correlative space-borne and ground-based observations can verify OSE results in the observable and non-observable regions of the MTI.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11752479','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11752479"><span>Remembering over the short-term: the case against the standard model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nairne, James S</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Psychologists often assume that short-term storage is synonymous with activation, a mnemonic property that keeps information in an immediately accessible form. Permanent knowledge is activated, as a result of on-line cognitive processing, and an activity trace is established "in" short-term (or working) memory. Activation is assumed to decay spontaneously with the passage of time, so a refreshing process-rehearsal-is needed to maintain availability. Most of the phenomena of immediate retention, such as capacity limitations and word length effects, are assumed to arise from trade-offs between rehearsal and decay. This "standard model" of how we remember over the short-term still enjoys considerable popularity, although recent research questions most of its main assumptions. In this chapter I review the recent research and identify the empirical and conceptual problems that plague traditional conceptions of short-term memory. Increasingly, researchers are recognizing that short-term retention is cue driven, much like long-term memory, and that neither rehearsal nor decay is likely to explain the particulars of short-term forgetting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Kerr%2c+W+J%3b+Lindsay%2c+D+M%3b+Watson%2c+S&id=EJ991869','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Kerr%2c+W+J%3b+Lindsay%2c+D+M%3b+Watson%2c+S&id=EJ991869"><span>Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & C. Middleton, 2004) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3791S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3791S"><span>Simulations of the Boreal Winter Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere With Meteorological Specifications in SD-WACCM-X</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sassi, Fabrizio; Siskind, David E.; Tate, Jennifer L.; Liu, Han-Li; Randall, Cora E.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>We investigate the benefit of high-altitude nudging in simulations of the structure and short-term variability of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) dynamical meteorology during boreal winter, specifically around the time of the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming. We compare simulations using the Specified Dynamics, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version, nudged using atmospheric specifications generated by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Advanced Level Physics High Altitude. Two sets of simulations are carried out: one uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0 to 90 km; the other uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0 to 50 km. The dynamical behavior is diagnosed from ensemble mean and standard deviation of winds, temperature, and zonal accelerations due to resolved and parameterized waves. We show that the dynamical behavior of the UMLT is quite different in the two experiments, with prominent differences in the structure and variability of constituent transport. We compare the results of our numerical experiments to observations of carbon monoxide by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer to show that the high-altitude nudging is capable of reproducing with high fidelity the observed variability, and traveling planetary waves are a crucial component of the dynamics. The results of this study indicate that to capture the key physical processes that affect short-term variability (defined as the atmospheric behavior within about 10 days of a stratospheric warming) in the UMLT, specification of the atmospheric state in the stratosphere alone is not sufficient, and upper atmospheric specifications are needed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3304506','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3304506"><span>Cholinergic modulation of the CAN current may adjust neural dynamics for active memory maintenance, spatial navigation and time-compressed replay</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Yoshida, Motoharu; Knauer, Beate; Jochems, Arthur</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Suppression of cholinergic receptors and inactivation of the septum impair short-term memory, and disrupt place cell and grid cell activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL). Location-dependent hippocampal place cell firing during active waking, when the acetylcholine level is high, switches to time-compressed replay activity during quiet waking and slow-wave-sleep (SWS), when the acetylcholine level is low. However, it remains largely unknown how acetylcholine supports short-term memory, spatial navigation, and the functional switch to replay mode in the MTL. In this paper, we focus on the role of the calcium-activated non-specific cationic (CAN) current which is activated by acetylcholine. The CAN current is known to underlie persistent firing, which could serve as a memory trace in many neurons in the MTL. Here, we review the CAN current and discuss possible roles of the CAN current in short-term memory and spatial navigation. We further propose a novel theoretical model where the CAN current switches the hippocampal place cell activity between real-time and time-compressed sequential activity during encoding and consolidation, respectively. PMID:22435051</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18293021','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18293021"><span>Characterization of human passive muscles for impact loads using genetic algorithm and inverse finite element methods.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chawla, A; Mukherjee, S; Karthikeyan, B</p> <p>2009-02-01</p> <p>The objective of this study is to identify the dynamic material properties of human passive muscle tissues for the strain rates relevant to automobile crashes. A novel methodology involving genetic algorithm (GA) and finite element method is implemented to estimate the material parameters by inverse mapping the impact test data. Isolated unconfined impact tests for average strain rates ranging from 136 s(-1) to 262 s(-1) are performed on muscle tissues. Passive muscle tissues are modelled as isotropic, linear and viscoelastic material using three-element Zener model available in PAMCRASH(TM) explicit finite element software. In the GA based identification process, fitness values are calculated by comparing the estimated finite element forces with the measured experimental forces. Linear viscoelastic material parameters (bulk modulus, short term shear modulus and long term shear modulus) are thus identified at strain rates 136 s(-1), 183 s(-1) and 262 s(-1) for modelling muscles. Extracted optimal parameters from this study are comparable with reported parameters in literature. Bulk modulus and short term shear modulus are found to be more influential in predicting the stress-strain response than long term shear modulus for the considered strain rates. Variations within the set of parameters identified at different strain rates indicate the need for new or improved material model, which is capable of capturing the strain rate dependency of passive muscle response with single set of material parameters for wide range of strain rates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910038929&hterms=balance+general&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dbalance%2Bgeneral','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910038929&hterms=balance+general&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dbalance%2Bgeneral"><span>Clouds-radiation interactions in a general circulation model - Impact upon the planetary radiation balance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Smith, Laura D.; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>Simultaneously conducted observations of the earth radiation budget and the cloud amount estimates, taken during the June 1979 - May 1980 Nimbus 7 mission were used to show interactions between the cloud amount and raidation and to verify a long-term climate simulation obtained with the latest version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). The parameterization of the radiative, dynamic, and thermodynamic processes produced the mean radiation and cloud quantities that were in reasonable agreement with satellite observations, but at the expense of simulating their short-term fluctuations. The results support the assumption that the inclusion of the cloud liquid water (ice) variable would be the best mean to reduce the blinking of clouds in NCAR CCM.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhyA..494...87M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhyA..494...87M"><span>An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010fici.conf..127S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010fici.conf..127S"><span>Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui</p> <p></p> <p>This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23849423','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23849423"><span>The temporal structure of intergenerational exchange: a within-family analysis of parent-child reciprocity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel</p> <p>2013-08-01</p> <p>Previous studies of parent-child reciprocity have focused either on the long term (generalized exchange over the life course) or on the short term (concurrent exchange in later life). The purpose of this research was to investigate the linkage between both temporal patterns of reciprocity within an integrative conceptual framework. We assessed whether long-term and short-term reciprocity operated as interdependent mechanisms that initially selected and subsequently relieved intergenerational caregiving relationships. We used data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study (AHEAD) provided by frail, single-living parents of at least two children (N=1010 respondents comprising 3768 parent-child dyads). Fixed-effects conditional logit models estimated between-sibling differences in assistance provided to parents, measured by instrumental help (i.e., assistance with IADLs) and hands-on care (i.e., assistance with ADLs). Key predictors were two measures of financial transfers given to children referring to longer and shorter recall periods. Receiving earlier and current financial transfers increased adult children's propensity to support their parents in later life. The effect of earlier transfers pertained to help rather than care whereas the reverse was true for the effect of current transfers. We found no evidence for a linkage between long-term and short-term reciprocity. Overall, the results indicate that adult children might balance long-term support accounts relative to their siblings, suggesting an intra-generational orientation on equity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18491497','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18491497"><span>A constrained rasch model of trace redintegration in serial recall.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Roodenrys, Steven; Miller, Leonie M</p> <p>2008-04-01</p> <p>The notion that verbal short-term memory tasks, such as serial recall, make use of information in long-term as well as in short-term memory is instantiated in many models of these tasks. Such models incorporate a process in which degraded traces retrieved from a short-term store are reconstructed, or redintegrated (Schweickert, 1993), through the use of information in long-term memory. This article presents a conceptual and mathematical model of this process based on a class of item-response theory models. It is demonstrated that this model provides a better fit to three sets of data than does the multinomial processing tree model of redintegration (Schweickert, 1993) and that a number of conceptual accounts of serial recall can be related to the parameters of the model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910267G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910267G"><span>Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar system at the northern part of the site over the medium to long term. We also observe that modal conditions favour intertidal beach recovery in the short and medium term, with a resulting southerly drift of sediment with an offshore return of sediment via the ebb-channel (multi-year response). This work demonstrates that coastal hazard analysis, approached at an appropriate site-specific scale and with suitable numerical modelling and field techniques, must include capturing data on nearshore forcing parameters that are driving shoreline response over various timescales. Understanding of these nearshore and intertidal morphodynamics is an important prelude to examining how a sandy shoreline behaves in response to high energy forcing. We advocate that morphodynamic self-adjustment of the beach system to a set of varying climatic conditions associated with increases in storminess, will have important implications for future coastline response.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3439501','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3439501"><span>Estimation of Attitude and External Acceleration Using Inertial Sensor Measurement During Various Dynamic Conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lee, Jung Keun; Park, Edward J.; Robinovitch, Stephen N.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>This paper proposes a Kalman filter-based attitude (i.e., roll and pitch) estimation algorithm using an inertial sensor composed of a triaxial accelerometer and a triaxial gyroscope. In particular, the proposed algorithm has been developed for accurate attitude estimation during dynamic conditions, in which external acceleration is present. Although external acceleration is the main source of the attitude estimation error and despite the need for its accurate estimation in many applications, this problem that can be critical for the attitude estimation has not been addressed explicitly in the literature. Accordingly, this paper addresses the combined estimation problem of the attitude and external acceleration. Experimental tests were conducted to verify the performance of the proposed algorithm in various dynamic condition settings and to provide further insight into the variations in the estimation accuracy. Furthermore, two different approaches for dealing with the estimation problem during dynamic conditions were compared, i.e., threshold-based switching approach versus acceleration model-based approach. Based on an external acceleration model, the proposed algorithm was capable of estimating accurate attitudes and external accelerations for short accelerated periods, showing its high effectiveness during short-term fast dynamic conditions. Contrariwise, when the testing condition involved prolonged high external accelerations, the proposed algorithm exhibited gradually increasing errors. However, as soon as the condition returned to static or quasi-static conditions, the algorithm was able to stabilize the estimation error, regaining its high estimation accuracy. PMID:22977288</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1235807','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1235807"><span>Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Passell, Howard D.; Aamir, Munaf Syed; Bernard, Michael Lewis</p> <p></p> <p>The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derivedmore » from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27065310','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27065310"><span>Short-term dynamics of indoor and outdoor endotoxin exposure: Case of Santiago, Chile, 2012.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Barraza, Francisco; Jorquera, Héctor; Heyer, Johanna; Palma, Wilfredo; Edwards, Ana María; Muñoz, Marcelo; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Montoya, Lupita D</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Indoor and outdoor endotoxin in PM2.5 was measured for the very first time in Santiago, Chile, in spring 2012. Average endotoxin concentrations were 0.099 and 0.094 [EU/m(3)] for indoor (N=44) and outdoor (N=41) samples, respectively; the indoor-outdoor correlation (log-transformed concentrations) was low: R=-0.06, 95% CI: (-0.35 to 0.24), likely owing to outdoor spatial variability. A linear regression model explained 68% of variability in outdoor endotoxins, using as predictors elemental carbon (a proxy of traffic emissions), chlorine (a tracer of marine air masses reaching the city) and relative humidity (a modulator of surface emissions of dust, vegetation and garbage debris). In this study, for the first time a potential source contribution function (PSCF) was applied to outdoor endotoxin measurements. Wind trajectory analysis identified upwind agricultural sources as contributors to the short-term, outdoor endotoxin variability. Our results confirm an association between combustion particles from traffic and outdoor endotoxin concentrations. For indoor endotoxins, a predictive model was developed but it only explained 44% of endotoxin variability; the significant predictors were tracers of indoor PM2.5 dust (Si, Ca), number of external windows and number of hours with internal doors open. Results suggest that short-term indoor endotoxin variability may be driven by household dust/garbage production and handling. This would explain the modest predictive performance of published models that use answers to household surveys as predictors. One feasible alternative is to increase the sampling period so that household features would arise as significant predictors of long-term airborne endotoxin levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4102660','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4102660"><span>An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to −0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was −0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23760657','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23760657"><span>An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21G2046D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21G2046D"><span>Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25228092','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25228092"><span>Sequential dynamics in visual short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kool, Wouter; Conway, Andrew R A; Turk-Browne, Nicholas B</p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is thought to help bridge across changes in visual input, and yet many studies of VSTM employ static displays. Here we investigate how VSTM copes with sequential input. In particular, we characterize the temporal dynamics of several different components of VSTM performance, including: storage probability, precision, variability in precision, guessing, and swapping. We used a variant of the continuous-report VSTM task developed for static displays, quantifying the contribution of each component with statistical likelihood estimation, as a function of serial position and set size. In Experiments 1 and 2, storage probability did not vary by serial position for small set sizes, but showed a small primacy effect and a robust recency effect for larger set sizes; precision did not vary by serial position or set size. In Experiment 3, the recency effect was shown to reflect an increased likelihood of swapping out items from earlier serial positions and swapping in later items, rather than an increased rate of guessing for earlier items. Indeed, a model that incorporated responding to non-targets provided a better fit to these data than alternative models that did not allow for swapping or that tried to account for variable precision. These findings suggest that VSTM is updated in a first-in-first-out manner, and they bring VSTM research into closer alignment with classical working memory research that focuses on sequential behavior and interference effects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4213352','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4213352"><span>Sequential dynamics in visual short-term memory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Conway, Andrew R. A.; Turk-Browne, Nicholas B.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is thought to help bridge across changes in visual input, and yet many studies of VSTM employ static displays. Here we investigate how VSTM copes with sequential input. In particular, we characterize the temporal dynamics of several different components of VSTM performance, including: storage probability, precision, variability in precision, guessing, and swapping. We used a variant of the continuous-report VSTM task developed for static displays, quantifying the contribution of each component with statistical likelihood estimation, as a function of serial position and set size. In Experiments 1 and 2, storage probability did not vary by serial position for small set sizes, but showed a small primacy effect and a robust recency effect for larger set sizes; precision did not vary by serial position or set size. In Experiment 3, the recency effect was shown to reflect an increased likelihood of swapping out items from earlier serial positions and swapping in later items, rather than an increased rate of guessing for earlier items. Indeed, a model that incorporated responding to non-targets provided a better fit to these data than alternative models that did not allow for swapping or that tried to account for variable precision. These findings suggest that VSTM is updated in a first-in-first-out manner, and they bring VSTM research into closer alignment with classical working memory research that focuses on sequential behavior and interference effects. PMID:25228092</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12188511','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12188511"><span>Insensitivity of visual short-term memory to irrelevant visual information.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Andrade, Jackie; Kemps, Eva; Werniers, Yves; May, Jon; Szmalec, Arnaud</p> <p>2002-07-01</p> <p>Several authors have hypothesized that visuo-spatial working memory is functionally analogous to verbal working memory. Irrelevant background speech impairs verbal short-term memory. We investigated whether irrelevant visual information has an analogous effect on visual short-term memory, using a dynamic visual noise (DVN) technique known to disrupt visual imagery (Quinn & McConnell, 1996b). Experiment I replicated the effect of DVN on pegword imagery. Experiments 2 and 3 showed no effect of DVN on recall of static matrix patterns, despite a significant effect of a concurrent spatial tapping task. Experiment 4 showed no effect of DVN on encoding or maintenance of arrays of matrix patterns, despite testing memory by a recognition procedure to encourage visual rather than spatial processing. Serial position curves showed a one-item recency effect typical of visual short-term memory. Experiment 5 showed no effect of DVN on short-term recognition of Chinese characters, despite effects of visual similarity and a concurrent colour memory task that confirmed visual processing of the characters. We conclude that irrelevant visual noise does not impair visual short-term memory. Visual working memory may not be functionally analogous to verbal working memory, and different cognitive processes may underlie visual short-term memory and visual imagery.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...628567V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...628567V"><span>Inhomogeneous Point-Processes to Instantaneously Assess Affective Haptic Perception through Heartbeat Dynamics Information</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Valenza, G.; Greco, A.; Citi, L.; Bianchi, M.; Barbieri, R.; Scilingo, E. P.</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>This study proposes the application of a comprehensive signal processing framework, based on inhomogeneous point-process models of heartbeat dynamics, to instantaneously assess affective haptic perception using electrocardiogram-derived information exclusively. The framework relies on inverse-Gaussian point-processes with Laguerre expansion of the nonlinear Wiener-Volterra kernels, accounting for the long-term information given by the past heartbeat events. Up to cubic-order nonlinearities allow for an instantaneous estimation of the dynamic spectrum and bispectrum of the considered cardiovascular dynamics, as well as for instantaneous measures of complexity, through Lyapunov exponents and entropy. Short-term caress-like stimuli were administered for 4.3-25 seconds on the forearms of 32 healthy volunteers (16 females) through a wearable haptic device, by selectively superimposing two levels of force, 2 N and 6 N, and two levels of velocity, 9.4 mm/s and 65 mm/s. Results demonstrated that our instantaneous linear and nonlinear features were able to finely characterize the affective haptic perception, with a recognition accuracy of 69.79% along the force dimension, and 81.25% along the velocity dimension.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95c2315M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95c2315M"><span>Universality classes of fluctuation dynamics in hierarchical complex systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Macêdo, A. M. S.; González, Iván R. Roa; Salazar, D. S. P.; Vasconcelos, G. L.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>A unified approach is proposed to describe the statistics of the short-time dynamics of multiscale complex systems. The probability density function of the relevant time series (signal) is represented as a statistical superposition of a large time-scale distribution weighted by the distribution of certain internal variables that characterize the slowly changing background. The dynamics of the background is formulated as a hierarchical stochastic model whose form is derived from simple physical constraints, which in turn restrict the dynamics to only two possible classes. The probability distributions of both the signal and the background have simple representations in terms of Meijer G functions. The two universality classes for the background dynamics manifest themselves in the signal distribution as two types of tails: power law and stretched exponential, respectively. A detailed analysis of empirical data from classical turbulence and financial markets shows excellent agreement with the theory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29018806','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29018806"><span>A Simple PB/LIE Free Energy Function Accurately Predicts the Peptide Binding Specificity of the Tiam1 PDZ Domain.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Panel, Nicolas; Sun, Young Joo; Fuentes, Ernesto J; Simonson, Thomas</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>PDZ domains generally bind short amino acid sequences at the C-terminus of target proteins, and short peptides can be used as inhibitors or model ligands. Here, we used experimental binding assays and molecular dynamics simulations to characterize 51 complexes involving the Tiam1 PDZ domain and to test the performance of a semi-empirical free energy function. The free energy function combined a Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum electrostatic term, a van der Waals interaction energy, and a surface area term. Each term was empirically weighted, giving a Linear Interaction Energy or "PB/LIE" free energy. The model yielded a mean unsigned deviation of 0.43 kcal/mol and a Pearson correlation of 0.64 between experimental and computed free energies, which was superior to a Null model that assumes all complexes have the same affinity. Analyses of the models support several experimental observations that indicate the orientation of the α 2 helix is a critical determinant for peptide specificity. The models were also used to predict binding free energies for nine new variants, corresponding to point mutants of the Syndecan1 and Caspr4 peptides. The predictions did not reveal improved binding; however, they suggest that an unnatural amino acid could be used to increase protease resistance and peptide lifetimes in vivo . The overall performance of the model should allow its use in the design of new PDZ ligands in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5623046','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5623046"><span>A Simple PB/LIE Free Energy Function Accurately Predicts the Peptide Binding Specificity of the Tiam1 PDZ Domain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Panel, Nicolas; Sun, Young Joo; Fuentes, Ernesto J.; Simonson, Thomas</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>PDZ domains generally bind short amino acid sequences at the C-terminus of target proteins, and short peptides can be used as inhibitors or model ligands. Here, we used experimental binding assays and molecular dynamics simulations to characterize 51 complexes involving the Tiam1 PDZ domain and to test the performance of a semi-empirical free energy function. The free energy function combined a Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum electrostatic term, a van der Waals interaction energy, and a surface area term. Each term was empirically weighted, giving a Linear Interaction Energy or “PB/LIE” free energy. The model yielded a mean unsigned deviation of 0.43 kcal/mol and a Pearson correlation of 0.64 between experimental and computed free energies, which was superior to a Null model that assumes all complexes have the same affinity. Analyses of the models support several experimental observations that indicate the orientation of the α2 helix is a critical determinant for peptide specificity. The models were also used to predict binding free energies for nine new variants, corresponding to point mutants of the Syndecan1 and Caspr4 peptides. The predictions did not reveal improved binding; however, they suggest that an unnatural amino acid could be used to increase protease resistance and peptide lifetimes in vivo. The overall performance of the model should allow its use in the design of new PDZ ligands in the future. PMID:29018806</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...412..441N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...412..441N"><span>Railway track geometry degradation due to differential settlement of ballast/subgrade - Numerical prediction by an iterative procedure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nielsen, Jens C. O.; Li, Xin</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>An iterative procedure for numerical prediction of long-term degradation of railway track geometry (longitudinal level) due to accumulated differential settlement of ballast/subgrade is presented. The procedure is based on a time-domain model of dynamic vehicle-track interaction to calculate the contact loads between sleepers and ballast in the short-term, which are then used in an empirical model to determine the settlement of ballast/subgrade below each sleeper in the long-term. The number of load cycles (wheel passages) accounted for in each iteration step is determined by an adaptive step length given by a maximum settlement increment. To reduce the computational effort for the simulations of dynamic vehicle-track interaction, complex-valued modal synthesis with a truncated modal set is applied for the linear subset of the discretely supported track model with non-proportional spatial distribution of viscous damping. Gravity loads and state-dependent vehicle, track and wheel-rail contact conditions are accounted for as external loads on the modal model, including situations involving loss of (and recovered) wheel-rail contact, impact between hanging sleeper and ballast, and/or a prescribed variation of non-linear track support stiffness properties along the track model. The procedure is demonstrated by calculating the degradation of longitudinal level over time as initiated by a prescribed initial local rail irregularity (dipped welded rail joint).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28050774','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28050774"><span>Task set induces dynamic reallocation of resources in visual short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sheremata, Summer L; Shomstein, Sarah</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Successful interaction with the environment requires the ability to flexibly allocate resources to different locations in the visual field. Recent evidence suggests that visual short-term memory (VSTM) resources are distributed asymmetrically across the visual field based upon task demands. Here, we propose that context, rather than the stimulus itself, determines asymmetrical distribution of VSTM resources. To test whether context modulates the reallocation of resources to the right visual field, task set, defined by memory-load, was manipulated to influence visual short-term memory performance. Performance was measured for single-feature objects embedded within predominantly single- or two-feature memory blocks. Therefore, context was varied to determine whether task set directly predicts changes in visual field biases. In accord with the dynamic reallocation of resources hypothesis, task set, rather than aspects of the physical stimulus, drove improvements in performance in the right- visual field. Our results show, for the first time, that preparation for upcoming memory demands directly determines how resources are allocated across the visual field.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29642756','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29642756"><span>The effect of visual arrangement on visuospatial short-term memory: Insights from children with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Attout, Lucie; Noël, Marie-Pascale; Rousselle, Laurence</p> <p>2018-04-11</p> <p>Recent models of visuospatial (VSSP) short-term memory postulate the existence of two dissociable mechanisms depending on whether VSSP information is presented simultaneously or sequentially. However, they do not specify to what extent VSSP short-term memory is under the influence of general VSSP processing. This issue was examined in people with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, a genetic condition involving a VSSP deficit. The configuration of VSSP information was manipulated (structured vs. unstructured) to explore the impact of arrangement on VSSP short-term memory. Two presentation modes were used to see whether the VSSP arrangement has the same impact on simultaneous and sequential short-term memory. Compared to children matched on chronological age, children with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome showed impaired performance only for structured arrangement, regardless of the presentation mode, suggesting an influence of VSSP processing on VSSP short-term memory abilities. A revised cognitive architecture for a model of VSSP short-term memory is proposed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5528888','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5528888"><span>Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Van Hentenryck, Pascal</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability. PMID:28746334</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28746334','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28746334"><span>Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Berbeglia, Gerardo; Van Hentenryck, Pascal</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25813606','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25813606"><span>Bond lifetime and diffusion coefficient in colloids with short-range interactions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ndong Mintsa, E; Germain, Ph; Amokrane, S</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>We use molecular dynamics simulations to study the influence of short-range structures in the interaction potential between hard-sphere-like colloidal particles. Starting from model potentials and effective potentials in binary mixtures computed from the Ornstein-Zernike equations, we investigate the influence of the range and strength of a possible tail beyond the usual core repulsion or the presence of repulsive barriers. The diffusion coefficient and mean "bond" lifetimes are used as indicators of the effect of this structure on the dynamics. The existence of correlations between the variations of these quantities with the physical parameters is discussed to assess the interpretation of dynamics slowing down in terms of long-lived bonds. We also discuss the question of a universal behaviour determined by the second virial coefficient B ((2)) and the interplay of attraction and repulsion. While the diffusion coefficient follows the B ((2)) law for purely attractive tails, this is no longer true in the presence of repulsive barriers. Furthermore, the bond lifetime shows a dependence on the physical parameters that differs from that of the diffusion coefficient. This raises the question of the precise role of bonds on the dynamics slowing down in colloidal gels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JPhA...41F4006H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JPhA...41F4006H"><span>Dynamic facilitation explains 'democratic' particle motion of metabasin transitions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hedges, Lester O.; Garrahan, Juan P.</p> <p>2008-08-01</p> <p>Transitions between metabasins in supercooled liquids seem to occur through rapid collective particle rearrangements. These events have been called 'democratic' as they appear homogeneous over a significant number of particles. This could suggest that 'democratic' rearrangements are fundamentally distinct to those leading to dynamic heterogeneity. Here we show, however, that this apparent homogeneous particle motion can be explained solely in terms of dynamic facilitation, and is therefore intriniscally heterogeneous. We do so by studying metabasin transitions in facilitated spin models and constrained lattice gases. We find that metabasin transitions occur through a sequence of locally facilitated events taking place over a relatively short time frame. When observed on small enough spatial windows these events appear sudden and homogeneous. Our results indicate that metabasin transitions, while apparently homogeneous and 'democratic', are yet another manifestation of dynamical heterogeneity in glass formers.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1240461-short-term-time-step-convergence-climate-model','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1240461-short-term-time-step-convergence-climate-model"><span>Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; ...</p> <p>2015-02-11</p> <p>A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themore » expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70156234','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70156234"><span>Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29233155','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29233155"><span>A meta-model for computer executable dynamic clinical safety checklists.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nan, Shan; Van Gorp, Pieter; Lu, Xudong; Kaymak, Uzay; Korsten, Hendrikus; Vdovjak, Richard; Duan, Huilong</p> <p>2017-12-12</p> <p>Safety checklist is a type of cognitive tool enforcing short term memory of medical workers with the purpose of reducing medical errors caused by overlook and ignorance. To facilitate the daily use of safety checklists, computerized systems embedded in the clinical workflow and adapted to patient-context are increasingly developed. However, the current hard-coded approach of implementing checklists in these systems increase the cognitive efforts of clinical experts and coding efforts for informaticists. This is due to the lack of a formal representation format that is both understandable by clinical experts and executable by computer programs. We developed a dynamic checklist meta-model with a three-step approach. Dynamic checklist modeling requirements were extracted by performing a domain analysis. Then, existing modeling approaches and tools were investigated with the purpose of reusing these languages. Finally, the meta-model was developed by eliciting domain concepts and their hierarchies. The feasibility of using the meta-model was validated by two case studies. The meta-model was mapped to specific modeling languages according to the requirements of hospitals. Using the proposed meta-model, a comprehensive coronary artery bypass graft peri-operative checklist set and a percutaneous coronary intervention peri-operative checklist set have been developed in a Dutch hospital and a Chinese hospital, respectively. The result shows that it is feasible to use the meta-model to facilitate the modeling and execution of dynamic checklists. We proposed a novel meta-model for the dynamic checklist with the purpose of facilitating creating dynamic checklists. The meta-model is a framework of reusing existing modeling languages and tools to model dynamic checklists. The feasibility of using the meta-model is validated by implementing a use case in the system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24481079','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24481079"><span>Molecular changes during neurodevelopment following second-trimester binge ethanol exposure in a mouse model of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder: from immediate effects to long-term adaptation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mantha, Katarzyna; Laufer, Benjamin I; Singh, Shiva M</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is an umbrella term that refers to a wide range of behavioral and cognitive deficits resulting from prenatal alcohol exposure. It involves changes in brain gene expression that underlie lifelong FASD symptoms. How these changes are achieved from immediate to long-term effects, and how they are maintained, is unknown. We have used the C57BL/6J mouse to assess the dynamics of genomic alterations following binge alcohol exposure. Ethanol-exposed fetal (short-term effect) and adult (long-term effect) brains were assessed for gene expression and microRNA (miRNA) changes using Affymetrix mouse arrays. We identified 48 and 68 differentially expressed genes in short- and long-term groups, respectively. No gene was common between the 2 groups. Short-term (immediate) genes were involved in cellular compromise and apoptosis, which represent ethanol's toxic effects. Long-term genes were involved in various cellular functions, including epigenetics. Using quantitative RT-PCR, we confirmed the downregulation of long-term genes: Camk1g, Ccdc6, Egr3, Hspa5, and Xbp1. miRNA arrays identified 20 differentially expressed miRNAs, one of which (miR-302c) was confirmed. miR-302c was involved in an inverse relationship with Ccdc6. A network-based model involving altered genes illustrates the importance of cellular redox, stress and inflammation in FASD. Our results also support a critical role of apoptosis in FASD, and the potential involvement of miRNAs in the adaptation of gene expression following prenatal ethanol exposure. The ultimate molecular footprint involves inflammatory disease, neurological disease and skeletal and muscular disorders as major alterations in FASD. At the cellular level, these processes represent abnormalities in redox, stress and inflammation, with potential underpinnings to anxiety. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESD.....8..225D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ESD.....8..225D"><span>Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhRvE..89e2803V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhRvE..89e2803V"><span>Inhomogeneous point-process entropy: An instantaneous measure of complexity in discrete systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Valenza, Gaetano; Citi, Luca; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale; Barbieri, Riccardo</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Measures of entropy have been widely used to characterize complexity, particularly in physiological dynamical systems modeled in discrete time. Current approaches associate these measures to finite single values within an observation window, thus not being able to characterize the system evolution at each moment in time. Here, we propose a new definition of approximate and sample entropy based on the inhomogeneous point-process theory. The discrete time series is modeled through probability density functions, which characterize and predict the time until the next event occurs as a function of the past history. Laguerre expansions of the Wiener-Volterra autoregressive terms account for the long-term nonlinear information. As the proposed measures of entropy are instantaneously defined through probability functions, the novel indices are able to provide instantaneous tracking of the system complexity. The new measures are tested on synthetic data, as well as on real data gathered from heartbeat dynamics of healthy subjects and patients with cardiac heart failure and gait recordings from short walks of young and elderly subjects. Results show that instantaneous complexity is able to effectively track the system dynamics and is not affected by statistical noise properties.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011Chaos..21d3127P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011Chaos..21d3127P"><span>The two-stage dynamics in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam problem: From regular to diffusive behavior</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ponno, A.; Christodoulidi, H.; Skokos, Ch.; Flach, S.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>A numerical and analytical study of the relaxation to equilibrium of both the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) α-model and the integrable Toda model, when the fundamental mode is initially excited, is reported. We show that the dynamics of both systems is almost identical on the short term, when the energies of the initially unexcited modes grow in geometric progression with time, through a secular avalanche process. At the end of this first stage of the dynamics, the time-averaged modal energy spectrum of the Toda system stabilizes to its final profile, well described, at low energy, by the spectrum of a q-breather. The Toda equilibrium state is clearly shown to describe well the long-living quasi-state of the FPU system. On the long term, the modal energy spectrum of the FPU system slowly detaches from the Toda one by a diffusive-like rising of the tail modes, and eventually reaches the equilibrium flat shape. We find a simple law describing the growth of tail modes, which enables us to estimate the time-scale to equipartition of the FPU system, even when, at small energies, it becomes unobservable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24472872','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24472872"><span>Equilibrium thermodynamics and folding kinetics of a short, fast-folding, beta-hairpin.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jimenez-Cruz, Camilo A; Garcia, Angel E</p> <p>2014-04-14</p> <p>Equilibrium thermodynamics of a short beta-hairpin are studied using unbiased all-atom replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. An exploratory analysis of the free energy landscape of the system is provided in terms of various structural characteristics, for both the folded and unfolded ensembles. We find that the favorable interactions between the ends introduced by the tryptophan cap, along with the flexibility of the turn region, explain the remarkable stability of the folded state. Charging of the N termini results in effective roughening of the free energy landscape and stabilization of non-native contacts. Folding-unfolding dynamics are further discussed using a set of 2413 independent molecular dynamics simulations, 2 ns to 20 ns long, at the melting temperature of the beta-hairpin. A novel method for the construction of Markov models consisting of an iterative refinement of the discretization in reduced dimensionality is presented and used to generate a detailed kinetic network of the system. The hairpin is found to fold heterogeneously on sub-microsecond timescales, with the relative position of the tryptophan side chains driving the selection of the specific pathway.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100038364&hterms=Cancer&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DCancer','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100038364&hterms=Cancer&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DCancer"><span>A New View of Radiation-Induced Cancer: Integrating Short-and Long-Term Processes. Part I: Approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shuryak, Igor; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Sachs, Rainer K.; Brenner, David J.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Mathematical models of radiation carcinogenesis are important for understanding mechanisms and for interpreting or extrapolating risk. There are two classes of such models: (1) long-term formalisms that track premalignant cell numbers throughout an entire lifetime but treat initial radiation dose-response simplistically and (2) short-term formalisms that provide a detailed initial dose-response even for complicated radiation protocols, but address its modulation during the subsequent cancer latency period only indirectly. We argue that integrating short- and long-term models is needed. As an example of this novel approach, we integrate a stochastic short-term initiation/ inactivation/repopulation model with a deterministic two-stage long-term model. Within this new formalism, the following assumptions are implemented: radiation initiates, promotes, or kills pre-malignant cells; a pre-malignant cell generates a clone, which, if it survives, quickly reaches a size limitation; the clone subsequently grows more slowly and can eventually generate a malignant cell; the carcinogenic potential of pre-malignant cells decreases with age.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/propaneindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/propaneindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28495842','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28495842"><span>The impact of ocular hemodynamics and intracranial pressure on intraocular pressure during acute gravitational changes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nelson, Emily S; Mulugeta, Lealem; Feola, Andrew; Raykin, Julia; Myers, Jerry G; Samuels, Brian C; Ethier, C Ross</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Exposure to microgravity causes a bulk fluid shift toward the head, with concomitant changes in blood volume/pressure, and intraocular pressure (IOP). These and other factors, such as intracranial pressure (ICP) changes, are suspected to be involved in the degradation of visual function and ocular anatomical changes exhibited by some astronauts. This is a significant health concern. Here, we describe a lumped-parameter numerical model to simulate volume/pressure alterations in the eye during gravitational changes. The model includes the effects of blood and aqueous humor dynamics, ICP, and IOP-dependent ocular compliance. It is formulated as a series of coupled differential equations and was validated against four existing data sets on parabolic flight, body inversion, and head-down tilt (HDT). The model accurately predicted acute IOP changes in parabolic flight and HDT, and was satisfactory for the more extreme case of inversion. The short-term response to the changing gravitational field was dominated by ocular blood pressures and compliance, while longer-term responses were more dependent on aqueous humor dynamics. ICP had a negligible effect on acute IOP changes. This relatively simple numerical model shows promising predictive capability. To extend the model to more chronic conditions, additional data on longer-term autoregulation of blood and aqueous humor dynamics are needed. NEW & NOTEWORTHY A significant percentage of astronauts present anatomical changes in the posterior eye tissues after spaceflight. Hypothesized increases in ocular blood volume and intracranial pressure (ICP) in space have been considered to be likely factors. In this work, we provide a novel numerical model of the eye that incorporates ocular hemodynamics, gravitational forces, and ICP changes. We find that changes in ocular hemodynamics govern the response of intraocular pressure during acute gravitational change. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24370922','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24370922"><span>Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Knerer, Gerhart; Currie, Christine S M; Brailsford, Sally C</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify important characteristics for future model development as well as to assess the impact of dengue control interventions. Such reviews highlight the importance of short-term cross-protection; antibody-dependent enhancement; and seasonality (in terms of both favourable and unfavourable conditions for mosquitoes). The compartmental model extends work by Bartley (2002) and combines the following factors: seasonality, age-structure, consecutive infection by all four serotypes, cross-protection and immune enhancement, as well as combined vector-host transmission. The model is used to represent dengue transmission dynamics using parameters appropriate for Thailand and to assess the potential impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies including routine and catch-up vaccination strategies on disease dynamics. When seasonality and temporary cross-protection between serotypes are included, the model is able to approximate the observed incidence of dengue fever in Thailand. We find vaccination to be the most effective single intervention, albeit with imperfect efficacy (30.2 %) and limited duration of protection. However, in combination, control interventions and vaccination exhibit a marked impact on dengue fever transmission. This study shows that an imperfect vaccine can be a useful weapon in reducing disease spread within the community, although it will be most effective when promoted as one of several strategies for combating dengue fever transmission.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5132226','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5132226"><span>Tracking the Evolution of Infrastructure Systems and Mass Responses Using Publically Available Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Guan, Xiangyang; Chen, Cynthia; Work, Dan</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Networks can evolve even on a short-term basis. This phenomenon is well understood by network scientists, but receive little attention in empirical literature involving real-world networks. On one hand, this is due to the deceitfully fixed topology of some networks such as many physical infrastructures, whose evolution is often deemed unlikely to occur in short term; on the other hand, the lack of data prohibits scientists from studying subjects such as social networks that seem likely to evolve on a short-term basis. We show that both networks—the infrastructure network and social network—are able to demonstrate evolutionary dynamics at the system level even in the short-term, characterized by shifting between different phases as predicted in network science. We develop a methodology of tracking the evolutionary dynamics of the two networks by incorporating flows and the microstructure of networks such as motifs. This approach is applied to the human interaction network and two transportation networks (subway and taxi) in the context of Hurricane Sandy, using publically available Twitter data and transportation data. Our result shows that significant changes in the system-level structure of networks can be detected on a continuous basis. This result provides a promising channel for real-time tracking in the future. PMID:27907061</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT.......100A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT.......100A"><span>GIS-based analysis and modelling with empirical and remotely-sensed data on coastline advance and retreat</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ahmad, Sajid Rashid</p> <p></p> <p>With the understanding that far more research remains to be done on the development and use of innovative and functional geospatial techniques and procedures to investigate coastline changes this thesis focussed on the integration of remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS) and modelling techniques to provide meaningful insights on the spatial and temporal dynamics of coastline changes. One of the unique strengths of this research was the parameterization of the GIS with long-term empirical and remote sensing data. Annual empirical data from 1941--2007 were analyzed by the GIS, and then modelled with statistical techniques. Data were also extracted from Landsat TM and ETM+ images. The band ratio method was used to extract the coastlines. Topographic maps were also used to extract digital map data. All data incorporated into ArcGIS 9.2 were analyzed with various modules, including Spatial Analyst, 3D Analyst, and Triangulated Irregular Networks. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to analyze and predict rates of coastline change. GIS results showed the spatial locations along the coast that will either advance or retreat over time. The linear regression results highlighted temporal changes which are likely to occur along the coastline. Box-Jenkins modelling procedures were utilized to determine statistical models which best described the time series (1941--2007) of coastline change data. After several iterations and goodness-of-fit tests, second-order spatial cyclic autoregressive models, first-order autoregressive models and autoregressive moving average models were identified as being appropriate for describing the deterministic and random processes operating in Guyana's coastal system. The models highlighted not only cyclical patterns in advance and retreat of the coastline, but also the existence of short and long-term memory processes. Long-term memory processes could be associated with mudshoal propagation and stabilization while short-term memory processes were indicative of transitory hydrodynamic and other processes. An innovative framework for a spatio-temporal information-based system (STIBS) was developed. STIBS incorporated diverse datasets within a GIS, dynamic computer-based simulation models, and a spatial information query and graphical subsystem. Tests of the STIBS proved that it could be used to simulate and visualize temporal variability in shifting morphological states of the coastline.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.1593J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.1593J"><span>Climate change effects on landslides in southern B.C.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jakob, M.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Two mechanisms that contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in coastal British Columbia are ante¬cedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide fre¬quencies. In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short- term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Colum¬bia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating sta¬tistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall. The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenar¬ios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in sim¬ulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means. The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10492','DOTNTL'); return false;" href="https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10492"><span>Dynamic Stochastic Control of Freeway Corridor Systems : Summary and Project Overview</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntlsearch.bts.gov/tris/index.do">DOT National Transportation Integrated Search</a></p> <p></p> <p>1978-12-01</p> <p>Systematic methodological approaches to overall traffic management from both short-term (real-time) and long-term (planning) perspectives have been developed. The approach embodies formulation and solution of interrelated mathematical problems from o...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10189483','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10189483"><span>Chaos in plasma simulation and experiment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Watts, C.; Newman, D.E.; Sprott, J.C.</p> <p>1993-09-01</p> <p>We investigate the possibility that chaos and simple determinism are governing the dynamics of reversed field pinch (RFP) plasmas using data from both numerical simulations and experiment. A large repertoire of nonlinear analysis techniques is used to identify low dimensional chaos. These tools include phase portraits and Poincard sections, correlation dimension, the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents and short term predictability. In addition, nonlinear noise reduction techniques are applied to the experimental data in an attempt to extract any underlying deterministic dynamics. Two model systems are used to simulate the plasma dynamics. These are -the DEBS code, which models global RFPmore » dynamics, and the dissipative trapped electron mode (DTEM) model, which models drift wave turbulence. Data from both simulations show strong indications of low,dimensional chaos and simple determinism. Experimental data were obtained from the Madison Symmetric Torus RFP and consist of a wide array of both global and local diagnostic signals. None of the signals shows any indication of low dimensional chaos or other simple determinism. Moreover, most of the analysis tools indicate the experimental system is very high dimensional with properties similar to noise. Nonlinear noise reduction is unsuccessful at extracting an underlying deterministic system.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4550356','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4550356"><span>On the Morphology of a Growing City: A Heuristic Experiment Merging Static Economics with Dynamic Geography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Delloye, Justin; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we aim at exploring how individual location decisions affect the shape of a growing city and, more precisely, how they may add up to a configuration that diverges from equilibrium configurations formulated ex-ante. To do so, we provide a two-sector city model merging a static equilibrium analysis with agent-based simulations. Results show that under strong agglomeration effects, urban development is monotonic and ends up with circular, monocentric long-term configurations. For low agglomeration effects however, elongated and multicentric urban configurations may emerge. The occurrence and underlying dynamics of these configurations are also discussed regarding commuting costs and the distance-decay of agglomeration economies between firms. To sum up, our paper warns urban planning policy makers against the difference that may stand between appropriate long-term perspectives, represented here by analytic equilibrium configurations, and short-term urban configurations, simulated here by a multi-agent system. PMID:26308858</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/29242','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/29242"><span>Overview of developing desired conditions: Short-term actions, long-term objectives</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>J. D. Chew; K. O' Hara; J. G. Jones</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>A number of modeling tools are required to go from short-term treatments to long-term objectives expressed as desired future conditions. Three models are used in an example that starts with determining desired stand level structure and ends with the implementation of treatments over time at a landscape scale. The Multi-Aged Stocking Assessment Model (MASAM) is used for...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=5&id=EJ1049585','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=5&id=EJ1049585"><span>An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29708944','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29708944"><span>Multivariate machine learning distinguishes cross-network dynamic functional connectivity patterns in state and trait neuropathic pain.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cheng, J C; Rogachov, A; Hemington, K S; Kucyi, A; Bosma, R L; Lindquist, M A; Inman, R D; Davis, K D</p> <p>2018-04-26</p> <p>Communication within the brain is dynamic. Chronic pain can also be dynamic, with varying intensities experienced over time. Little is known of how brain dynamics are disrupted in chronic pain, or relates to patients' pain assessed at various time-scales (e.g., short-term state versus long-term trait). Patients experience pain "traits" indicative of their general condition, but also pain "states" that vary day to day. Here, we used network-based multivariate machine learning to determine how patterns in dynamic and static brain communication are related to different characteristics and timescales of chronic pain. Our models were based on resting state dynamic and static functional connectivity (dFC, sFC) in patients with chronic neuropathic pain (NP) or non-NP. The most prominent networks in the models were the default mode, salience, and executive control networks. We also found that cross-network measures of dFC rather than sFC were better associated with patients' pain, but only in those with NP features. These associations were also more highly and widely associated with measures of trait rather than state pain. Furthermore, greater dynamic connectivity with executive control networks was associated with milder neuropathic pain, but greater dynamic connectivity with limbic networks was associated greater neuropathic pain. Compared with healthy individuals, the dFC features most highly related to trait neuropathic pain were also more abnormal in patients with greater pain. Our findings indicate that dFC reflects patients' overall pain condition (i.e., trait pain), not just their current state, and is impacted by complexities in pain features beyond intensity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H42D..04N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H42D..04N"><span>Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nunes, A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T33E..06L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T33E..06L"><span>From 2D to 3D modelling in long term tectonics: Modelling challenges and HPC solutions (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Le Pourhiet, L.; May, D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Over the last decades, 3D thermo-mechanical codes have been made available to the long term tectonics community either as open source (Underworld, Gale) or more limited access (Fantom, Elvis3D, Douar, LaMem etc ...). However, to date, few published results using these methods have included the coupling between crustal and lithospheric dynamics at large strain. The fact that these computations are computational expensive is not the primary reason for the relatively slow development of 3D modeling in the long term tectonics community, as compare to the rapid development observed within the mantle dynamic community, or in the short-term tectonics field. Long term tectonics problems have specific issues not found in either of these two field, including; large strain (not an issue for short-term), the inclusion of free surface and the occurence of large viscosity contrasts. The first issue is typically eliminated using a combined marker-ALE method instead of fully lagrangian method, however, the marker-ALE approach can pose some algorithmic challenges in a massively parallel environment. The two last issues are more problematic because they affect the convergence of the linear/non-linear solver and the memory cost. Two options have been tested so far, using low order element and solving with a sparse direct solver, or using higher order stable elements together with a multi-grid solver. The first options, is simpler to code and to use but reaches its limit at around 80^3 low order elements. The second option requires more operations but allows using iterative solver on extremely large computers. In this presentation, I will describe the design philosophy and highlight results obtained using a code from the second-class method. The presentation will be oriented from an end-user point of view, using an application from 3D continental break up to illustrate key concepts. The description will proceed point by point from implementing physics into the code, to dealing with specific issues related to solving the discrete system of non linear equations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TCD.....9..223A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015TCD.....9..223A"><span>A sensitivity study of fast outlet glaciers to short timescale cyclical perturbations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aykutlug, E.; Dupont, T. K.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The dynamic response of outlet glaciers on short (annual to decadal) timescales is affected by various external forcings, such as basal or oceanic conditions. Understanding the sensitivity of the dynamic response to such forcings can help assess more accurate ice volume projections. In this work, we investigate the spatiotemporal sensitivity of outlet glaciers to fast cyclical forcings using a one-dimensional depth and width-averaged heuristic model. Our results indicate that even on such short timescales, nonlinearities in ice dynamics may lead to an asymmetric response, despite the forcing functions being symmetric around each reference value. Results also show that such short-timescale effects become more pronounced as glaciers become closer to flotation. While being qualitatively similar for both downsloping and upsloping bed geometries, the results indicate higher sensitivity for upsloping ("West Antarctica-like") beds. The range in asymmetric response for different configurations motivate parameterizing or including short-timescale effects in models while investigating the dynamic behavior of outlet glaciers.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-09-14/pdf/2010-22889.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-09-14/pdf/2010-22889.pdf"><span>75 FR 55764 - Dynamic Random Access Memory Semiconductors From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of...</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-09-14</p> <p>... lending rates published by the IMF for each year. For countervailable short-term and long-term foreign... administrative reviews. For long-term, won-denominated loans originating in 1986 through 1995, we used the... International Monetary Fund's (``IMF's'') International Financial Statistics Yearbook. For long-term won...</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21185100','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21185100"><span>Increased dynamic regulation of postural tone through Alexander Technique training.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cacciatore, T W; Gurfinkel, V S; Horak, F B; Cordo, P J; Ames, K E</p> <p>2011-02-01</p> <p>Gurfinkel and colleagues (2006) recently found that healthy adults dynamically modulate postural muscle tone in the body axis during anti-gravity postural maintenance and that this modulation is inversely correlated with axial stiffness. Our objective in the present study was to investigate whether dynamic modulation of axial postural tone can change through training. We examined whether teachers of the Alexander Technique (AT), who undergo "long-term" (3-year) training, have greater modulation of axial postural tone than matched control subjects. In addition, we performed a longitudinal study on the effect of "short-term" (10-week) AT training on the axial postural tone of individuals with low back pain (LBP), since short term AT training has previously been shown to reduce LBP. Axial postural tone was quantified by measuring the resistance of the neck, trunk and hips to small (±10°), slow (1°/s) torsional rotation during stance. Modulation of tone was determined by the torsional resistance to rotation (peak-to-peak, phase-advance, and variability of torque) and axial muscle activity (EMG). Peak-to-peak torque was lower (∼50%), while phase-advance and cycle-to-cycle variability were enhanced for AT teachers compared to matched control subjects at all levels of the axis. In addition, LBP subjects decreased trunk and hip stiffness following short-term AT training compared to a control intervention. While changes in static levels of postural tone may have contributed to the reduced stiffness observed with the AT, our results suggest that dynamic modulation of postural tone can be enhanced through long-term training in the AT, which may constitute an important direction for therapeutic intervention. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/heating_oilindex.php+','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/heating_oilindex.php+"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5225013','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5225013"><span>Mathematical Modeling of Intestinal Iron Absorption Using Genetic Programming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Colins, Andrea; Gerdtzen, Ziomara P.; Nuñez, Marco T.; Salgado, J. Cristian</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Iron is a trace metal, key for the development of living organisms. Its absorption process is complex and highly regulated at the transcriptional, translational and systemic levels. Recently, the internalization of the DMT1 transporter has been proposed as an additional regulatory mechanism at the intestinal level, associated to the mucosal block phenomenon. The short-term effect of iron exposure in apical uptake and initial absorption rates was studied in Caco-2 cells at different apical iron concentrations, using both an experimental approach and a mathematical modeling framework. This is the first report of short-term studies for this system. A non-linear behavior in the apical uptake dynamics was observed, which does not follow the classic saturation dynamics of traditional biochemical models. We propose a method for developing mathematical models for complex systems, based on a genetic programming algorithm. The algorithm is aimed at obtaining models with a high predictive capacity, and considers an additional parameter fitting stage and an additional Jackknife stage for estimating the generalization error. We developed a model for the iron uptake system with a higher predictive capacity than classic biochemical models. This was observed both with the apical uptake dataset used for generating the model and with an independent initial rates dataset used to test the predictive capacity of the model. The model obtained is a function of time and the initial apical iron concentration, with a linear component that captures the global tendency of the system, and a non-linear component that can be associated to the movement of DMT1 transporters. The model presented in this paper allows the detailed analysis, interpretation of experimental data, and identification of key relevant components for this complex biological process. This general method holds great potential for application to the elucidation of biological mechanisms and their key components in other complex systems. PMID:28072870</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4709466','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4709466"><span>Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F.; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term. PMID:26793189</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26793189','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26793189"><span>Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JPSJ...83l4004M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JPSJ...83l4004M"><span>Oscillations in Spurious States of the Associative Memory Model with Synaptic Depression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Murata, Shin; Otsubo, Yosuke; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The associative memory model is a typical neural network model that can store discretely distributed fixed-point attractors as memory patterns. When the network stores the memory patterns extensively, however, the model has other attractors besides the memory patterns. These attractors are called spurious memories. Both spurious states and memory states are in equilibrium, so there is little difference between their dynamics. Recent physiological experiments have shown that the short-term dynamic synapse called synaptic depression decreases its efficacy of transmission to postsynaptic neurons according to the activities of presynaptic neurons. Previous studies revealed that synaptic depression destabilizes the memory states when the number of memory patterns is finite. However, it is very difficult to study the dynamical properties of the spurious states if the number of memory patterns is proportional to the number of neurons. We investigate the effect of synaptic depression on spurious states by Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that synaptic depression does not affect the memory states but mainly destabilizes the spurious states and induces periodic oscillations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSMTE..12.3404P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSMTE..12.3404P"><span>Nonlinear price impact from linear models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6393489-modification-short-straight-sections-high-energy-booster-ssc','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6393489-modification-short-straight-sections-high-energy-booster-ssc"><span>Modification of the short straight sections of the high energy booster of the SSC</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Li, M.; Johnson, D.; Kocur, P.</p> <p>1993-05-01</p> <p>The tracking analysis with the High Energy Booster (HEB) of the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) indicated that the machine dynamic aperture for the current lattice (Rev 0 lattice) was limited by the quadrupoles in the short straight sections. A new lattice, Rev 1, with modified short straight sections was proposed. The results of tracking the two lattices up to 5 [times] 10[sup 5] turns (20 seconds at the injection energy) with various random seeds are presented in this paper. The new lattice has increased dynamic aperture from [approximately]7 mm to [approximately]8 mm, increases the abort kicker effectiveness, and eliminates onemore » family (length) of main quadrupoles. The code DIMAD was used for matching the new short straight sections to the ring. The code TEAPOT was used for the short term tracking and to create a machine file, zfile, which could in turn be used to generate a one-turn map with the ZLIB for fast long-term tracking using a symplectic one-turn map tracking program ZIMAPTRK.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10158717-modification-short-straight-sections-high-energy-booster-ssc','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10158717-modification-short-straight-sections-high-energy-booster-ssc"><span>Modification of the short straight sections of the high energy booster of the SSC</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Li, M.; Johnson, D.; Kocur, P.</p> <p>1993-05-01</p> <p>The tracking analysis with the High Energy Booster (HEB) of the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) indicated that the machine dynamic aperture for the current lattice (Rev 0 lattice) was limited by the quadrupoles in the short straight sections. A new lattice, Rev 1, with modified short straight sections was proposed. The results of tracking the two lattices up to 5 {times} 10{sup 5} turns (20 seconds at the injection energy) with various random seeds are presented in this paper. The new lattice has increased dynamic aperture from {approximately}7 mm to {approximately}8 mm, increases the abort kicker effectiveness, and eliminates onemore » family (length) of main quadrupoles. The code DIMAD was used for matching the new short straight sections to the ring. The code TEAPOT was used for the short term tracking and to create a machine file, zfile, which could in turn be used to generate a one-turn map with the ZLIB for fast long-term tracking using a symplectic one-turn map tracking program ZIMAPTRK.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20050193722&hterms=Elsevier&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3DElsevier','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20050193722&hterms=Elsevier&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3DElsevier"><span>Survey of current situation in radiation belt modeling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Fung, Shing F.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>The study of Earth's radiation belts is one of the oldest subjects in space physics. Despite the tremendous progress made in the last four decades, we still lack a complete understanding of the radiation belts in terms of their configurations, dynamics, and detailed physical accounts of their sources and sinks. The static nature of early empirical trapped radiation models, for examples, the NASA AP-8 and AE-8 models, renders those models inappropriate for predicting short-term radiation belt behaviors associated with geomagnetic storms and substorms. Due to incomplete data coverage, these models are also inaccurate at low altitudes (e.g., <1000 km) where many robotic and human space flights occur. The availability of radiation data from modern space missions and advancement in physical modeling and data management techniques have now allowed the development of new empirical and physical radiation belt models. In this paper, we will review the status of modern radiation belt modeling. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1227342','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1227342"><span>Climate Induced Spillover and Implications for U.S. Security.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Tidwell, Vincent C.; Naugle, Asmeret Bier; Backus, George A.</p> <p></p> <p>Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Towardmore » this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H23I1787A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H23I1787A"><span>Legacy nutrient dynamics and patterns of catchment response under changing land use and management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Attinger, S.; Van, M. K.; Basu, N. B.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Watersheds are complex heterogeneous systems that store, transform, and release water and nutrients under a broad distribution of both natural and anthropogenic controls. Many current watershed models, from complex numerical models to simpler reservoir-type models, are considered to be well-developed in their ability to predict fluxes of water and nutrients to streams and groundwater. They are generally less adept, however, at capturing watershed storage dynamics. In other words, many current models are run with an assumption of steady-state dynamics, and focus on nutrient flows rather than changes in nutrient stocks within watersheds. Although these commonly used modeling approaches may be able to adequately capture short-term watershed dynamics, they are unable to represent the clear nonlinearities or hysteresis responses observed in watersheds experiencing significant changes in nutrient inputs. To address such a lack, we have, in the present work, developed a parsimonious modeling approach designed to capture long-term catchment responses to spatial and temporal changes in nutrient inputs. In this approach, we conceptualize the catchment as a biogeochemical reactor that is driven by nutrient inputs, characterized internally by both biogeochemical degradation and residence or travel time distributions, resulting in a specific nutrient output. For the model simulations, we define a range of different scenarios to represent real-world changes in land use and management implemented to improve water quality. We then introduce the concept of state-space trajectories to describe system responses to these potential changes in anthropogenic forcings. We also increase model complexity, in a stepwise fashion, by dividing the catchment into multiple biogeochemical reactors, coupled in series or in parallel. Using this approach, we attempt to answer the following questions: (1) What level of model complexity is needed to capture observed system responses? (2) How can we explain different patterns of nonlinearity in watershed nutrient dynamics? And finally, how does the accumulation of nutrient legacies within watersheds impact current and future water quality?</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27188713','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27188713"><span>A new data-driven model for post-transplant antibody dynamics in high risk kidney transplantation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Yan; Briggs, David; Lowe, David; Mitchell, Daniel; Daga, Sunil; Krishnan, Nithya; Higgins, Robert; Khovanova, Natasha</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The dynamics of donor specific human leukocyte antigen antibodies during early stage after kidney transplantation are of great clinical interest as these antibodies are considered to be associated with short and long term clinical outcomes. The limited number of antibody time series and their diverse patterns have made the task of modelling difficult. Focusing on one typical post-transplant dynamic pattern with rapid falls and stable settling levels, a novel data-driven model has been developed for the first time. A variational Bayesian inference method has been applied to select the best model and learn its parameters for 39 time series from two groups of graft recipients, i.e. patients with and without acute antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) episodes. Linear and nonlinear dynamic models of different order were attempted to fit the time series, and the third order linear model provided the best description of the common features in both groups. Both deterministic and stochastic parameters are found to be significantly different in the AMR and no-AMR groups showing that the time series in the AMR group have significantly higher frequency of oscillations and faster dissipation rates. This research may potentially lead to better understanding of the immunological mechanisms involved in kidney transplantation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvE..85a1111A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvE..85a1111A"><span>Critical short-time dynamics in a system with interacting static and diffusive populations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Argolo, C.; Quintino, Yan; Gleria, Iram; Lyra, M. L.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>We study the critical short-time dynamical behavior of a one-dimensional model where diffusive individuals can infect a static population upon contact. The model presents an absorbing phase transition from an active to an inactive state. Previous calculations of the critical exponents based on quasistationary quantities have indicated an unusual crossover from the directed percolation to the diffusive contact process universality classes. Here we show that the critical exponents governing the slow short-time dynamic evolution of several relevant quantities, including the order parameter, its relative fluctuations, and correlation function, reinforce the lack of universality in this model. Accurate estimates show that the critical exponents are distinct in the regimes of low and high recovery rates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H44B..05R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H44B..05R"><span>An Ensemble-Based Forecasting Framework to Optimize Reservoir Releases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events are stressing the need to manage water resources on shorter timescales. Short-term management of water resources becomes proactive when inflow forecasts are available and this information can be effectively used in the control strategy. This work investigates the utility of short term hydrological ensemble forecasts for operational decision making during extreme weather events. An advanced automated hydrologic prediction framework integrating a regional scale hydrologic model, GIS datasets and the meteorological ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was coupled to an implicit multi-objective dynamic programming model to optimize releases from a water supply reservoir. The proposed methodology was evaluated by retrospectively forecasting the inflows to the Oradell reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during the extreme hydrologic event, Hurricane Irene. Additionally, the flexibility of the forecasting framework was investigated by forecasting the inflows from a moderate rainfall event to provide important perspectives on using the framework to assist reservoir operations during moderate events. The proposed forecasting framework seeks to provide a flexible, assistive tool to alleviate the complexity of operational decision-making.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27107204','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27107204"><span>To bind or not to bind, that's the wrong question: Features and objects coexist in visual short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Geigerman, Shriradha; Verhaeghen, Paul; Cerella, John</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>In three experiments, we investigated whether features and whole-objects can be represented simultaneously in visual short-term memory (VSTM). Participants were presented with a memory set of colored shapes; we probed either for the constituent features or for the whole object, and analyzed retrieval dynamics (cumulative response time distributions). In our first experiment, we used whole-object probes that recombined features from the memory display; we found that subjects' data conformed to a kitchen-line model, showing that they used whole-object representations for the matching process. In the second experiment, we encouraged independent-feature representations by using probes that used features not present in the memory display; subjects' data conformed to the race-model inequality, showing that they used independent-feature representations for the matching process. In a final experiment, we used both types of probes; subjects now used both types of representations, depending on the nature of the probe. Combined, our three experiments suggest that both feature and whole-object representations can coexist in VSTM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29606177','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29606177"><span>Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, J; Nawata, K</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ISPAr42W1..551R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ISPAr42W1..551R"><span>Multi-Temporal Land Cover Classification with Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rußwurm, M.; Körner, M.</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>Land cover classification (LCC) is a central and wide field of research in earth observation and has already put forth a variety of classification techniques. Many approaches are based on classification techniques considering observation at certain points in time. However, some land cover classes, such as crops, change their spectral characteristics due to environmental influences and can thus not be monitored effectively with classical mono-temporal approaches. Nevertheless, these temporal observations should be utilized to benefit the classification process. After extensive research has been conducted on modeling temporal dynamics by spectro-temporal profiles using vegetation indices, we propose a deep learning approach to utilize these temporal characteristics for classification tasks. In this work, we show how long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks can be employed for crop identification purposes with SENTINEL 2A observations from large study areas and label information provided by local authorities. We compare these temporal neural network models, i.e., LSTM and recurrent neural network (RNN), with a classical non-temporal convolutional neural network (CNN) model and an additional support vector machine (SVM) baseline. With our rather straightforward LSTM variant, we exceeded state-of-the-art classification performance, thus opening promising potential for further research.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28941619','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28941619"><span>An ensemble approach to predicting the impact of vaccination on rotavirus disease in Niger.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Park, Jaewoo; Goldstein, Joshua; Haran, Murali; Ferrari, Matthew</p> <p>2017-10-13</p> <p>Recently developed vaccines provide a new way of controlling rotavirus in sub-Saharan Africa. Models for the transmission dynamics of rotavirus are critical both for estimating current burden from imperfect surveillance and for assessing potential effects of vaccine intervention strategies. We examine rotavirus infection in the Maradi area in southern Niger using hospital surveillance data provided by Epicentre collected over two years. Additionally, a cluster survey of households in the region allows us to estimate the proportion of children with diarrhea who consulted at a health structure. Model fit and future projections are necessarily particular to a given model; thus, where there are competing models for the underlying epidemiology an ensemble approach can account for that uncertainty. We compare our results across several variants of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental models to quantify the impact of modeling assumptions on our estimates. Model-specific parameters are estimated by Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We then use Bayesian model averaging to generate ensemble estimates of the current dynamics, including estimates of R 0 , the burden of infection in the region, as well as the impact of vaccination on both the short-term dynamics and the long-term reduction of rotavirus incidence under varying levels of coverage. The ensemble of models predicts that the current burden of severe rotavirus disease is 2.6-3.7% of the population each year and that a 2-dose vaccine schedule achieving 70% coverage could reduce burden by 39-42%. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990LNP...368..467S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990LNP...368..467S"><span>Random Boolean networks for autoassociative memory: Optimization and sequential learning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sherrington, D.; Wong, K. Y. M.</p> <p></p> <p>Conventional neural networks are based on synaptic storage of information, even when the neural states are discrete and bounded. In general, the set of potential local operations is much greater. Here we discuss some aspects of the properties of networks of binary neurons with more general Boolean functions controlling the local dynamics. Two specific aspects are emphasised; (i) optimization in the presence of noise and (ii) a simple model for short-term memory exhibiting primacy and recency in the recall of sequentially taught patterns.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992aich.meet....5O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992aich.meet....5O"><span>Mesoscale atmospheric modeling for emergency response</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Osteen, B. L.; Fast, J. D.</p> <p></p> <p>Atmospheric transport models for emergency response have traditionally utilized meteorological fields interpolated from sparse data to predict contaminant transport. Often these fields are adjusted to satisfy constraints derived from the governing equations of geophysical fluid dynamics, e.g. mass continuity. Gaussian concentration distributions or stochastic models are then used to represent turbulent diffusion of a contaminant in the diagnosed meteorological fields. The popularity of these models derives from their relative simplicity, ability to make reasonable short-term predictions, and, most important, execution speed. The ability to generate a transport prediction for an accidental release from the Savannah River Site in a time frame which will allow protective action to be taken is essential in an emergency response operation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037196','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037196"><span>Impacts of exotic mangrove forests and mangrove deforestation on carbon remineralization and ecosystem functioning in marine sediments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Sweetman, A.K.; Middelburg, J.J.; Berle, A.M.; Bernardino, A.F.; Schander, C.; Demopoulos, A.W.J.; Smith, C.R.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>To evaluate how mangrove invasion and removal can modify benthic carbon cycling processes and ecosystem functioning, we used stable-isotopically labelled algae as a deliberate tracer to quantify benthic respiration and C-flow through macrofauna and bacteria in sediments collected from (1) an invasive mangrove forest, (2) deforested mangrove sites 2 and 6 years after removal of above-sediment mangrove biomass, and (3) two mangrove-free, control sites in the Hawaiian coastal zone. Sediment oxygen consumption (SOC) rates were significantly greater in the mangrove and mangrove removal site experiments than in controls and were significantly correlated with total benthic (macrofauna and bacteria) biomass and sedimentary mangrove biomass (SMB). Bacteria dominated short-term C-processing of added microalgal-C and benthic biomass in sediments from the invasive mangrove forest habitat. In contrast, macrofauna were the most important agents in the short-term processing of microalgal-C in sediments from the mangrove removal and control sites. Mean faunal abundance and short term C-uptake rates in sediments from both removal sites were significantly higher than in control cores, which collectively suggest that community structure and short-term C-cycling dynamics in habitats where mangroves have been cleared can remain fundamentally different from un-invaded mudflat sediments for at least 6-yrs following above-sediment mangrove removal. In summary, invasion by mangroves can lead to large shifts in benthic ecosystem function, with sediment metabolism, benthic community structure and short-term C-remineralization dynamics being affected for years following invader removal. ?? 2010 Author(s).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92f2150R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92f2150R"><span>Dynamical arrest with zero complexity: The unusual behavior of the spherical Blume-Emery-Griffiths disordered model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rainone, Corrado; Ferrari, Ulisse; Paoluzzi, Matteo; Leuzzi, Luca</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The short- and long-time dynamics of model systems undergoing a glass transition with apparent inversion of Kauzmann and dynamical arrest glass transition lines is investigated. These models belong to the class of the spherical mean-field approximation of a spin-1 model with p -body quenched disordered interaction, with p >2 , termed spherical Blume-Emery-Griffiths models. Depending on temperature and chemical potential the system is found in a paramagnetic or in a glassy phase and the transition between these phases can be of a different nature. In specific regions of the phase diagram coexistence of low-density and high-density paramagnets can occur, as well as the coexistence of spin-glass and paramagnetic phases. The exact static solution for the glassy phase is known to be obtained by the one-step replica symmetry breaking ansatz. Different scenarios arise for both the dynamic and the thermodynamic transitions. These include: (i) the usual random first-order transition (Kauzmann-like) for mean-field glasses preceded by a dynamic transition, (ii) a thermodynamic first-order transition with phase coexistence and latent heat, and (iii) a regime of apparent inversion of static transition line and dynamic transition lines, the latter defined as a nonzero complexity line. The latter inversion, though, turns out to be preceded by a dynamical arrest line at higher temperature. Crossover between different regimes is analyzed by solving mode-coupling-theory equations near the boundaries of paramagnetic solutions and the relationship with the underlying statics is discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19393256','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19393256"><span>An investigation of the relationship between innovation and cultural diversity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kandler, Anne; Laland, Kevin N</p> <p>2009-08-01</p> <p>In this paper we apply reaction-diffusion models to explore the relationship between the rate of behavioural innovation and the level of cultural diversity. We investigate how both independent invention and the modification and refinement of established innovations impact on cultural dynamics and diversity. Further, we analyse these relationships in the presence of biases in cultural learning and find that the introduction of new variants typically increases cultural diversity substantially in the short term, but may decrease long-term diversity. Independent invention generally supports higher levels of cultural diversity than refinement. Repeated patterns of innovation through refinement generate characteristic oscillating trends in diversity, with increasing trends towards greater average diversity observed for medium but not low innovation rates. Conformity weakens the relationship between innovation and diversity. The level of cultural diversity, and pattern of temporal dynamics, potentially provide clues as to the underlying process, which can be used to interpret empirical data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031459','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031459"><span>The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22753147','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22753147"><span>Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.911a2011C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.911a2011C"><span>Analysis of the long and short-period terms due the nonsphericity of the central body: applications for Mercury</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Carvalho, J. P. S.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>In this work, we present an approach taking into account the single-averaged equations and unaveraged equations to investigate the dynamics of artificial satellites on the effect due to the non-spherical shape of the planet Mercury. An analysis considering the long-period terms and another taking into account the short-period terms is presented. The numerical integrations of the equations developed are performed using the Maple software. We consider the numerical values of the most updated spherical harmonic coefficients in the literature. Emphasis is given to analyze the effect of the C22 term in the dynamics of the spacecraft. We show that the two techniques are in agreement (average or not average). We found orbits that librates around an equilibrium point with small variation of the orbital elements, in particular the eccentricity and argument of the pericenter. We also note that the C22 term contributes to reduce the growth of the orbital eccentricity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........14A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........14A"><span>Multiscale equation-free algorithms for molecular dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Abi Mansour, Andrew</p> <p></p> <p>Molecular dynamics is a physics-based computational tool that has been widely employed to study the dynamics and structure of macromolecules and their assemblies at the atomic scale. However, the efficiency of molecular dynamics simulation is limited because of the broad spectrum of timescales involved. To overcome this limitation, an equation-free algorithm is presented for simulating these systems using a multiscale model cast in terms of atomistic and coarse-grained variables. Both variables are evolved in time in such a way that the cross-talk between short and long scales is preserved. In this way, the coarse-grained variables guide the evolution of the atom-resolved states, while the latter provide the Newtonian physics for the former. While the atomistic variables are evolved using short molecular dynamics runs, time advancement at the coarse-grained level is achieved with a scheme that uses information from past and future states of the system while accounting for both the stochastic and deterministic features of the coarse-grained dynamics. To complete the multiscale cycle, an atom-resolved state consistent with the updated coarse-grained variables is recovered using algorithms from mathematical optimization. This multiscale paradigm is extended to nanofluidics using concepts from hydrodynamics, and it is demonstrated for macromolecular and nanofluidic systems. A toolkit is developed for prototyping these algorithms, which are then implemented within the GROMACS simulation package and released as an open source multiscale simulator.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24561348','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24561348"><span>Modelling of long-term and short-term mechanisms of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: an object-oriented approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fernandez de Canete, J; Luque, J; Barbancho, J; Munoz, V</p> <p>2014-04-01</p> <p>A mathematical model that provides an overall description of both the short- and long-term mechanisms of arterial pressure regulation is presented. Short-term control is exerted through the baroreceptor reflex while renal elimination plays a role in long-term control. Both mechanisms operate in an integrated way over the compartmental model of the cardiovascular system. The whole system was modelled in MODELICA, which uses a hierarchical object-oriented modelling strategy, under the DYMOLA simulation environment. The performance of the controlled system was analysed by simulation in light of the existing hypothesis and validation tests previously performed with physiological data, demonstrating the effectiveness of both regulation mechanisms under physiological and pathological conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3060113','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3060113"><span>Kinematic variability, fractal dynamics and local dynamic stability of treadmill walking</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Background Motorized treadmills are widely used in research or in clinical therapy. Small kinematics, kinetics and energetics changes induced by Treadmill Walking (TW) as compared to Overground Walking (OW) have been reported in literature. The purpose of the present study was to characterize the differences between OW and TW in terms of stride-to-stride variability. Classical (Standard Deviation, SD) and non-linear (fractal dynamics, local dynamic stability) methods were used. In addition, the correlations between the different variability indexes were analyzed. Methods Twenty healthy subjects performed 10 min TW and OW in a random sequence. A triaxial accelerometer recorded trunk accelerations. Kinematic variability was computed as the average SD (MeanSD) of acceleration patterns among standardized strides. Fractal dynamics (scaling exponent α) was assessed by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of stride intervals. Short-term and long-term dynamic stability were estimated by computing the maximal Lyapunov exponents of acceleration signals. Results TW did not modify kinematic gait variability as compared to OW (multivariate T2, p = 0.87). Conversely, TW significantly modified fractal dynamics (t-test, p = 0.01), and both short and long term local dynamic stability (T2 p = 0.0002). No relationship was observed between variability indexes with the exception of significant negative correlation between MeanSD and dynamic stability in TW (3 × 6 canonical correlation, r = 0.94). Conclusions Treadmill induced a less correlated pattern in the stride intervals and increased gait stability, but did not modify kinematic variability in healthy subjects. This could be due to changes in perceptual information induced by treadmill walking that would affect locomotor control of the gait and hence specifically alter non-linear dependencies among consecutive strides. Consequently, the type of walking (i.e. treadmill or overground) is important to consider in each protocol design. PMID:21345241</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25479101','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25479101"><span>Human growth and body weight dynamics: an integrative systems model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rahmandad, Hazhir</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%-24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4257729','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4257729"><span>Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Rahmandad, Hazhir</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%–24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations. PMID:25479101</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18067383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18067383"><span>Dynamic stability of passive dynamic walking on an irregular surface.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Su, Jimmy Li-Shin; Dingwell, Jonathan B</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>Falls that occur during walking are a significant health problem. One of the greatest impediments to solve this problem is that there is no single obviously "correct" way to quantify walking stability. While many people use variability as a proxy for stability, measures of variability do not quantify how the locomotor system responds to perturbations. The purpose of this study was to determine how changes in walking surface variability affect changes in both locomotor variability and stability. We modified an irreducibly simple model of walking to apply random perturbations that simulated walking over an irregular surface. Because the model's global basin of attraction remained fixed, increasing the amplitude of the applied perturbations directly increased the risk of falling in the model. We generated ten simulations of 300 consecutive strides of walking at each of six perturbation amplitudes ranging from zero (i.e., a smooth continuous surface) up to the maximum level the model could tolerate without falling over. Orbital stability defines how a system responds to small (i.e., "local") perturbations from one cycle to the next and was quantified by calculating the maximum Floquet multipliers for the model. Local stability defines how a system responds to similar perturbations in real time and was quantified by calculating short-term and long-term local exponential rates of divergence for the model. As perturbation amplitudes increased, no changes were seen in orbital stability (r(2)=2.43%; p=0.280) or long-term local instability (r(2)=1.0%; p=0.441). These measures essentially reflected the fact that the model never actually "fell" during any of our simulations. Conversely, the variability of the walker's kinematics increased exponentially (r(2)>or=99.6%; p<0.001) and short-term local instability increased linearly (r(2)=88.1%; p<0.001). These measures thus predicted the increased risk of falling exhibited by the model. For all simulated conditions, the walker remained orbitally stable, while exhibiting substantial local instability. This was because very small initial perturbations diverged away from the limit cycle, while larger initial perturbations converged toward the limit cycle. These results provide insight into how these different proposed measures of walking stability are related to each other and to risk of falling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19920014191','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19920014191"><span>Matrix dominated stress/strain behavior in polymeric composites: Effects of hold time, nonlinearity and rate dependency</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gates, Thomas S.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>In order to understand matrix dominated behavior in laminated polymer matrix composites, an elastic/viscoplastic constitutive model was developed and used to predict stress strain behavior of off-axis and angle-ply symmetric laminates under in-plane, tensile axial loading. The model was validated for short duration tests at elevated temperatures. Short term stress relaxation and short term creep, strain rate sensitivity, and material nonlinearity were accounted for. The testing times were extended for longer durations, and periods of creep and stress relaxation were used to investigate the ability of the model to account for long term behavior. The model generally underestimated the total change in strain and stress for both long term creep and long term relaxation respectively.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=4&id=EJ954058','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=memory+AND+long+AND+short+AND+term&pg=4&id=EJ954058"><span>Attention Problems, Phonological Short-Term Memory, and Visuospatial Short-Term Memory: Differential Effects on Near- and Long-Term Scholastic Achievement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Sarver, Dustin E.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Scanlan, Sean W.; Raiker, Joseph S.; Altro, Thomas A.; Bolden, Jennifer</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The current study examined individual differences in children's phonological and visuospatial short-term memory as potential mediators of the relationship among attention problems and near- and long-term scholastic achievement. Nested structural equation models revealed that teacher-reported attention problems were associated negatively with…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8432E..14O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8432E..14O"><span>Photonic single nonlinear-delay dynamical node for information processing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ortín, Silvia; San-Martín, Daniel; Pesquera, Luis; Gutiérrez, José Manuel</p> <p>2012-06-01</p> <p>An electro-optical system with a delay loop based on semiconductor lasers is investigated for information processing by performing numerical simulations. This system can replace a complex network of many nonlinear elements for the implementation of Reservoir Computing. We show that a single nonlinear-delay dynamical system has the basic properties to perform as reservoir: short-term memory and separation property. The computing performance of this system is evaluated for two prediction tasks: Lorenz chaotic time series and nonlinear auto-regressive moving average (NARMA) model. We sweep the parameters of the system to find the best performance. The results achieved for the Lorenz and the NARMA-10 tasks are comparable to those obtained by other machine learning methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/gasoline_consindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/gasoline_consindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.3932D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.3932D"><span>A new release of the mean orbital motion theory, and a new tool provided by CNES for long term analysis of disposal orbits and re-entry predictions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Deleflie, Florent; Wailliez, Sébastien; Portmann, Christophe; Gilles, M.; Vienne, Alain; Berthier, J.; Valk, St; Hautesserres, Denis; Martin, Thierry; Fraysse, Hubert</p> <p></p> <p>To perform an orbit modelling accurate enough to provide a good estimate of the lifetime of a satellite, or to ensure the stability of a disposal orbit through centuries, we built a new orbit propagator based on the theory of mean orbital motion. It is named SECS-SD2 , for Simplified and Extended CODIOR Software -Space Debris Dedicated . The CODIOR software propagates numerically averaged equations of motion, with a typical integration step size on the order of a few hours, and was originally written in classical orbital elements. The so-called Space Debris -dedicated version is written in orbital elements suitable for orbits with small eccentricities and inclinations, so as to characterize the main dynamic properties of the motion within the LEO, MEO, and GEO regions. The orbital modelling accounts for the very first terms of the geopotential, the perturbations induced by the luni-solar attraction, the solar radiation pressure, and the atmospheric drag (using classical models). The new software was designed so as to ensure short computation times, even over periods of decades or centuries. This paper aims first at describing and validating the main functionalities of the software: we explain how the simplified averaged equations of motion were built, we show how we get sim-plified luni-solar ephemerides without using any huge file for orbit propagations over centuries, and we show how we averaged and simulated the solar flux. We show as well how we expressed short periodic terms to be added to the mean equations of motion, in order to get orbital ele-ments comparable to those deduced from the classical numerical integration of the oscultating equations of motion. The second part of the paper sheds light on some dynamical properties of space debris flying in the LEO and GEO regions, which were obtained from the new software. Knowing that each satellite in the LEO region is now supposed to re-enter the atmosphere within a period of 25 years, we estimated in various dynamical configurations the lifetime of LEO objects depending on their initial conditions of motion, on the solar flux models applied through decades, and on the atmospheric density models and also the satellite area-to-mass ratio. In the GEO region, we investigated the dynamical reasons that can cause space debris re-entering the GEO-protected region after the passivation of a disposal spacecraft.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/macro_bridgeindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/macro_bridgeindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3694978','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3694978"><span>Simulation of Long-Term Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in Grassland-Based Dairy Farming Systems to Evaluate Mitigation Strategies for Nutrient Losses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Shah, Ghulam Abbas; Groot, Jeroen C.J.; Shah, Ghulam Mustafa; Lantinga, Egbert A.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Many measures have been proposed to mitigate gaseous emissions and other nutrient losses from agroecosystems, which can have large detrimental effects for the quality of soils, water and air, and contribute to eutrophication and global warming. Due to complexities in farm management, biological interactions and emission measurements, most experiments focus on analysis of short-term effects of isolated mitigation practices. Here we present a model that allows simulating long-term effects at the whole-farm level of combined measures related to grassland management, animal housing and manure handling after excretion, during storage and after field application. The model describes the dynamics of pools of organic carbon and nitrogen (N), and of inorganic N, as affected by farm management in grassland-based dairy systems. We assessed the long-term effects of delayed grass mowing, housing type (cubicle and sloping floor barns, resulting in production of slurry and solid cattle manure, respectively), manure additives, contrasting manure storage methods and irrigation after application of covered manure. Simulations demonstrated that individually applied practices often result in compensatory loss pathways. For instance, methods to reduce ammonia emissions during storage like roofing or covering of manure led to larger losses through ammonia volatilization, nitrate leaching or denitrification after application, unless extra measures like irrigation were used. A strategy of combined management practices of delayed mowing and fertilization with solid cattle manure that is treated with zeolite, stored under an impermeable sheet and irrigated after application was effective to increase soil carbon stocks, increase feed self-sufficiency and reduce losses by ammonia volatilization and soil N losses. Although long-term datasets (>25 years) of farm nutrient dynamics and loss flows are not available to validate the model, the model is firmly based on knowledge of processes and measured effects of individual practices, and allows the integrated exploration of effective emission mitigation strategies. PMID:23826255</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JChPh.141k4102N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JChPh.141k4102N"><span>Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Hummer, Gerhard</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22308394-diffusion-maps-clustering-fuzzy-markov-modeling-peptide-folding-transitions','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22308394-diffusion-maps-clustering-fuzzy-markov-modeling-peptide-folding-transitions"><span>Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G., E-mail: yannis@princeton.edu, E-mail: gerhard.hummer@biophys.mpg.de</p> <p></p> <p>Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlapmore » with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4169379','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4169379"><span>Diffusion maps, clustering and fuzzy Markov modeling in peptide folding transitions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Nedialkova, Lilia V.; Amat, Miguel A.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Hummer, Gerhard</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Using the helix-coil transitions of alanine pentapeptide as an illustrative example, we demonstrate the use of diffusion maps in the analysis of molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Diffusion maps and other nonlinear data-mining techniques provide powerful tools to visualize the distribution of structures in conformation space. The resulting low-dimensional representations help in partitioning conformation space, and in constructing Markov state models that capture the conformational dynamics. In an initial step, we use diffusion maps to reduce the dimensionality of the conformational dynamics of Ala5. The resulting pretreated data are then used in a clustering step. The identified clusters show excellent overlap with clusters obtained previously by using the backbone dihedral angles as input, with small—but nontrivial—differences reflecting torsional degrees of freedom ignored in the earlier approach. We then construct a Markov state model describing the conformational dynamics in terms of a discrete-time random walk between the clusters. We show that by combining fuzzy C-means clustering with a transition-based assignment of states, we can construct robust Markov state models. This state-assignment procedure suppresses short-time memory effects that result from the non-Markovianity of the dynamics projected onto the space of clusters. In a comparison with previous work, we demonstrate how manifold learning techniques may complement and enhance informed intuition commonly used to construct reduced descriptions of the dynamics in molecular conformation space. PMID:25240340</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27743908','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27743908"><span>Predictors of Short- and Long-Term Attrition From the Parents as Agents of Change Randomized Controlled Trial for Managing Pediatric Obesity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Spence, Nicholas D; Newton, Amanda S; Keaschuk, Rachel A; Ambler, Kathryn A; Jetha, Mary M; Holt, Nicholas L; Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Spence, John C; Sharma, Arya M; Ball, Geoff D C</p> <p></p> <p>Attrition in pediatric weight management is a substantial problem. This study examined factors associated with short- and long-term attrition from a lifestyle and behavioral intervention for parents of children with overweight or obesity. Fifty-two families with children ages 6 to 12 years old and body mass index at or above the 85th percentile participated in a randomized controlled trial focused on parents, comparing parent-based cognitive behavioral therapy with parent-based psychoeducation for pediatric weight management. We examined program attrition using two clinical phases of the intervention: short-term and long-term attrition, modeled using the general linear model. Predictors included intervention type, child/parent weight status, sociodemographic factors, and health of the family system. Higher self-assessed health of the family system was associated with lower short-term attrition; higher percentage of intervention sessions attended by parents was associated with lower long-term attrition. Different variables were significant in our short- and long-term models. Attrition might best be conceptualized based on short- and long-term phases of clinical, parent-based interventions for pediatric weight management. Copyright © 2016 National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040142013&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040142013&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart"><span>Heart rate dynamics before spontaneous onset of ventricular fibrillation in patients with healed myocardial infarcts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Makikallio, T. H.; Koistinen, J.; Jordaens, L.; Tulppo, M. P.; Wood, N.; Golosarsky, B.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>The traditional methods of analyzing heart rate (HR) variability have failed to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation (VF). We sought to determine whether new methods of analyzing RR interval variability based on nonlinear dynamics and fractal analysis may help to detect subtle abnormalities in RR interval behavior before the onset of life-threatening arrhythmias. RR interval dynamics were analyzed from 24-hour Holter recordings of 15 patients who experienced VF during electrocardiographic recording. Thirty patients without spontaneous or inducible arrhythmia events served as a control group in this retrospective case control study. Conventional time- and frequency-domain measurements, the short-term fractal scaling exponent (alpha) obtained by detrended fluctuation analysis, and the slope (beta) of the power-law regression line (log power - log frequency, 10(-4)-10(-2) Hz) of RR interval dynamics were determined. The short-term correlation exponent alpha of RR intervals (0.64 +/- 0.19 vs 1.05 +/- 0.12; p <0.001) and the power-law slope beta (-1.63 +/- 0.28 vs -1.31 +/- 0.20, p <0.001) were lower in the patients before the onset of VF than in the control patients, but the SD and the low-frequency spectral components of RR intervals did not differ between the groups. The short-term scaling exponent performed better than any other measurement of HR variability in differentiating between the patients with VF and controls. Altered fractal correlation properties of HR behavior precede the spontaneous onset of VF. Dynamic analysis methods of analyzing RR intervals may help to identify abnormalities in HR behavior before VF.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Chaos..27h3121S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Chaos..27h3121S"><span>Uncovering low dimensional macroscopic chaotic dynamics of large finite size complex systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Skardal, Per Sebastian; Restrepo, Juan G.; Ott, Edward</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>In the last decade, it has been shown that a large class of phase oscillator models admit low dimensional descriptions for the macroscopic system dynamics in the limit of an infinite number N of oscillators. The question of whether the macroscopic dynamics of other similar systems also have a low dimensional description in the infinite N limit has, however, remained elusive. In this paper, we show how techniques originally designed to analyze noisy experimental chaotic time series can be used to identify effective low dimensional macroscopic descriptions from simulations with a finite number of elements. We illustrate and verify the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the dynamics of an ensemble of globally coupled Landau-Stuart oscillators for which we demonstrate low dimensional macroscopic chaotic behavior with an effective 4-dimensional description. By using this description, we show that one can calculate dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimensions. One could also use the reconstruction to generate short-term predictions of the macroscopic dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15242673','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15242673"><span>Modelling the formation of working memory with networks of integrate-and-fire neurons connected by plastic synapses.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Del Giudice, Paolo; Fusi, Stefano; Mattia, Maurizio</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>In this paper we review a series of works concerning models of spiking neurons interacting via spike-driven, plastic, Hebbian synapses, meant to implement stimulus driven, unsupervised formation of working memory (WM) states. Starting from a summary of the experimental evidence emerging from delayed matching to sample (DMS) experiments, we briefly review the attractor picture proposed to underlie WM states. We then describe a general framework for a theoretical approach to learning with synapses subject to realistic constraints and outline some general requirements to be met by a mechanism of Hebbian synaptic structuring. We argue that a stochastic selection of the synapses to be updated allows for optimal memory storage, even if the number of stable synaptic states is reduced to the extreme (bistable synapses). A description follows of models of spike-driven synapses that implement the stochastic selection by exploiting the high irregularity in the pre- and post-synaptic activity. Reasons are listed why dynamic learning, that is the process by which the synaptic structure develops under the only guidance of neural activities, driven in turn by stimuli, is hard to accomplish. We provide a 'feasibility proof' of dynamic formation of WM states in this context the beneficial role of short-term depression (STD) is illustrated. by showing how an initially unstructured network autonomously develops a synaptic structure supporting simultaneously stable spontaneous and WM states in this context the beneficial role of short-term depression (STD) is illustrated. After summarizing heuristic indications emerging from the study performed, we conclude by briefly discussing open problems and critical issues still to be clarified.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49541','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49541"><span>A STELLA model to estimate water and nitrogen dynamics in a short-rotation woody crop plantation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Ying Ouyang; Jiaen Zhang; Theodor D. Leininger; Brent R. Frey</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Although short-rotation woody crop biomass production technology has demonstrated a promising potential to supply feedstocks for bioenergy production, the water and nutrient processes in the woody crop planation ecosystem are poorly understood. In this study, a computer model was developed to estimate the dynamics of water and nitrogen (N) species (e.g., NH4...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3896388','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3896388"><span>A Viscoelastic Constitutive Model Can Accurately Represent Entire Creep Indentation Tests of Human Patella Cartilage</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Pal, Saikat; Lindsey, Derek P.; Besier, Thor F.; Beaupre, Gary S.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Cartilage material properties provide important insights into joint health, and cartilage material models are used in whole-joint finite element models. Although the biphasic model representing experimental creep indentation tests is commonly used to characterize cartilage, cartilage short-term response to loading is generally not characterized using the biphasic model. The purpose of this study was to determine the short-term and equilibrium material properties of human patella cartilage using a viscoelastic model representation of creep indentation tests. We performed 24 experimental creep indentation tests from 14 human patellar specimens ranging in age from 20 to 90 years (median age 61 years). We used a finite element model to reproduce the experimental tests and determined cartilage material properties from viscoelastic and biphasic representations of cartilage. The viscoelastic model consistently provided excellent representation of the short-term and equilibrium creep displacements. We determined initial elastic modulus, equilibrium elastic modulus, and equilibrium Poisson’s ratio using the viscoelastic model. The viscoelastic model can represent the short-term and equilibrium response of cartilage and may easily be implemented in whole-joint finite element models. PMID:23027200</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=short+AND+term+AND+memory+AND+experiment&pg=6&id=EJ906783','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=short+AND+term+AND+memory+AND+experiment&pg=6&id=EJ906783"><span>Short-Term Memory for Temporal Intervals: Contrasting Explanations of the Choose-Short Effect in Pigeons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Pinto, Carlos; Machado, Armando</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>To better understand short-term memory for temporal intervals, we re-examined the choose-short effect. In Experiment 1, to contrast the predictions of two models of this effect, the subjective shortening and the coding models, pigeons were exposed to a delayed matching-to-sample task with three sample durations (2, 6 and 18 s) and retention…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CNSNS..47..139L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CNSNS..47..139L"><span>Enhanced stability of car-following model upon incorporation of short-term driving memory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Based on the full velocity difference model, a new car-following model is developed to investigate the effect of short-term driving memory on traffic flow in this paper. Short-term driving memory is introduced as the influence factor of driver's anticipation behavior. The stability condition of the newly developed model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Via numerical method, evolution of a small perturbation is investigated firstly. The results show that the improvement of this new car-following model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the new model can improve the traffic stability. Starting and breaking processes of vehicles in the signalized intersection are also investigated. The numerical simulations illustrate that the new model can successfully describe the driver's anticipation behavior, and that the efficiency and safety of the vehicles passing through the signalized intersection are improved by considering short-term driving memory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=retrieval+AND+cues&pg=6&id=EJ823664','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=retrieval+AND+cues&pg=6&id=EJ823664"><span>A Context-Based Theory of Recency and Contiguity in Free Recall</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Sederberg, Per B.; Howard, Marc W.; Kahana, Michael J.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The authors present a new model of free recall on the basis of M. W. Howard and M. J. Kahana's temporal context model and M. Usher and J. L. McClelland's leaky-accumulator decision model. In this model, contextual drift gives rise to both short-term and long-term recency effects, and contextual retrieval gives rise to short-term and long-term…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NatSR...2E.514D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NatSR...2E.514D"><span>Information Processing Capacity of Dynamical Systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dambre, Joni; Verstraeten, David; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Massar, Serge</p> <p>2012-07-01</p> <p>Many dynamical systems, both natural and artificial, are stimulated by time dependent external signals, somehow processing the information contained therein. We demonstrate how to quantify the different modes in which information can be processed by such systems and combine them to define the computational capacity of a dynamical system. This is bounded by the number of linearly independent state variables of the dynamical system, equaling it if the system obeys the fading memory condition. It can be interpreted as the total number of linearly independent functions of its stimuli the system can compute. Our theory combines concepts from machine learning (reservoir computing), system modeling, stochastic processes, and functional analysis. We illustrate our theory by numerical simulations for the logistic map, a recurrent neural network, and a two-dimensional reaction diffusion system, uncovering universal trade-offs between the non-linearity of the computation and the system's short-term memory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhA...50O5601P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhA...50O5601P"><span>Dimension reduction for stochastic dynamical systems forced onto a manifold by large drift: a constructive approach with examples from theoretical biology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Parsons, Todd L.; Rogers, Tim</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Systems composed of large numbers of interacting agents often admit an effective coarse-grained description in terms of a multidimensional stochastic dynamical system, driven by small-amplitude intrinsic noise. In applications to biological, ecological, chemical and social dynamics it is common for these models to posses quantities that are approximately conserved on short timescales, in which case system trajectories are observed to remain close to some lower-dimensional subspace. Here, we derive explicit and general formulae for a reduced-dimension description of such processes that is exact in the limit of small noise and well-separated slow and fast dynamics. The Michaelis-Menten law of enzyme-catalysed reactions, and the link between the Lotka-Volterra and Wright-Fisher processes are explored as a simple worked examples. Extensions of the method are presented for infinite dimensional systems and processes coupled to non-Gaussian noise sources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3400147','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3400147"><span>Information Processing Capacity of Dynamical Systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Dambre, Joni; Verstraeten, David; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Massar, Serge</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Many dynamical systems, both natural and artificial, are stimulated by time dependent external signals, somehow processing the information contained therein. We demonstrate how to quantify the different modes in which information can be processed by such systems and combine them to define the computational capacity of a dynamical system. This is bounded by the number of linearly independent state variables of the dynamical system, equaling it if the system obeys the fading memory condition. It can be interpreted as the total number of linearly independent functions of its stimuli the system can compute. Our theory combines concepts from machine learning (reservoir computing), system modeling, stochastic processes, and functional analysis. We illustrate our theory by numerical simulations for the logistic map, a recurrent neural network, and a two-dimensional reaction diffusion system, uncovering universal trade-offs between the non-linearity of the computation and the system's short-term memory. PMID:22816038</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22201005','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22201005"><span>Simulating dissolved organic carbon dynamics at the swedish integrated monitoring sites with the integrated catchments model for carbon, INCA-C.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Futter, M N; Löfgren, S; Köhler, S J; Lundin, L; Moldan, F; Bringmark, L</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Surface water concentrations of dissolved organic carbon ([DOC]) are changing throughout the northern hemisphere due to changes in climate, land use and acid deposition. However, the relative importance of these drivers is unclear. Here, we use the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon (INCA-C) to simulate long-term (1996-2008) streamwater [DOC] at the four Swedish integrated monitoring (IM) sites. These are unmanaged headwater catchments with old-growth forests and no major changes in land use. Daily, seasonal and long-term variations in streamwater [DOC] driven by runoff, seasonal temperature and atmospheric sulfate (SO₄(2-)) deposition were observed at all sites. Using INCA-C, it was possible to reproduce observed patterns of variability in streamwater [DOC] at the four IM sites. Runoff was found to be the main short-term control on [DOC]. Seasonal patterns in [DOC] were controlled primarily by soil temperature. Measured SO₄(2-) deposition explained some of the long-term [DOC] variability at all sites.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040142014&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040142014&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart"><span>Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Makikallio, T. H.; Hoiber, S.; Kober, L.; Torp-Pedersen, C.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17803979','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17803979"><span>The temporal representation of the delay of dynamic iterated rippled noise with positive and negative gain by single units in the ventral cochlear nucleus.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sayles, Mark; Winter, Ian Michael</p> <p>2007-09-26</p> <p>Spike trains were recorded from single units in the ventral cochlear nucleus of the anaesthetised guinea-pig in response to dynamic iterated rippled noise with positive and negative gain. The short-term running waveform autocorrelation functions of these stimuli show peaks at integer multiples of the time-varying delay when the gain is +1, and troughs at odd-integer multiples and peaks at even-integer multiples of the time-varying delay when the gain is -1. In contrast, the short-term autocorrelation of the Hilbert envelope shows peaks at integer multiples of the time-varying delay for both positive and negative gain stimuli. A running short-term all-order interspike interval analysis demonstrates the ability of single units to represent the modulated pitch contour in their short-term interval statistics. For units with low best frequency (approximate < or = 1.1 kHz) the temporal discharge pattern reflected the waveform fine structure regardless of unit classification (Primary-like, Chopper). For higher best frequency units the pattern of response varied according to unit type. Chopper units with best frequency approximate > or = 1.1 kHz responded to envelope modulation; showing no difference between their response to stimuli with positive and negative gain. Primary-like units with best frequencies in the range 1-3 kHz were still able to represent the difference in the temporal fine structure between dynamic rippled noise with positive and negative gain. No unit with a best frequency above 3 kHz showed a response to the temporal fine structure. Chopper units in this high frequency group showed significantly greater representation of envelope modulation relative to primary-like units with the same range of best frequencies. These results show that at the level of the cochlear nucleus there exists sufficient information in the time domain to represent the time-varying pitch associated with dynamic iterated rippled noise.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA547256','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA547256"><span>Category Learning by Clustering with Extension to Dynamic Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-03-05</p> <p>and decision making when short- and long-term rewards are in conflict. In a paper published in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , we examined whether...Navigating through Abstract Decision Spaces: Evaluating the Role of State Generalization in a Dynamic Decision-Making Task. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , 16</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28237797','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28237797"><span>Identification of Nascent Memory CD8 T Cells and Modeling of Their Ontogeny.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Crauste, Fabien; Mafille, Julien; Boucinha, Lilia; Djebali, Sophia; Gandrillon, Olivier; Marvel, Jacqueline; Arpin, Christophe</p> <p>2017-03-22</p> <p>Primary immune responses generate short-term effectors and long-term protective memory cells. The delineation of the genealogy linking naive, effector, and memory cells has been complicated by the lack of phenotypes discriminating effector from memory differentiation stages. Using transcriptomics and phenotypic analyses, we identify Bcl2 and Mki67 as a marker combination that enables the tracking of nascent memory cells within the effector phase. We then use a formal approach based on mathematical models describing the dynamics of population size evolution to test potential progeny links and demonstrate that most cells follow a linear naive→early effector→late effector→memory pathway. Moreover, our mathematical model allows long-term prediction of memory cell numbers from a few early experimental measurements. Our work thus provides a phenotypic means to identify effector and memory cells, as well as a mathematical framework to investigate their genealogy and to predict the outcome of immunization regimens in terms of memory cell numbers generated. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1993/0435/report.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1993/0435/report.pdf"><span>Cyclic injection, storage, and withdrawal of heated water in a sandstone aquifer at St. Paul, Minnesota: Analysis of thermal data and nonisothermal modeling of short-term test cycles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Miller, Robert T.; Delin, G.N.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>A three-dimensional, anisotropic, nonisothermal, ground-water-flow, and thermal-energy-transport model was constructed to simulate the four short-term test cycles. The model was used to simulate the entire short-term testing period of approximately 400 days. The only model properties varied during model calibration were longitudinal and transverse thermal dispersivities, which, for final calibration, were simulated as 3.3 and 0.33 meters, respectively. The model was calibrated by comparing model-computed results to (1) measured temperatures at selected altitudes in four observation wells, (2) measured temperatures at the production well, and (3) calculated thermal efficiencies of the aquifer. Model-computed withdrawal-water temperatures were within an average of about 3 percent of measured values and model-computed aquifer-thermal efficiencies were within an average of about 5 percent of calculated values for the short-term test cycles. These data indicate that the model accurately simulated thermal-energy storage within the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville aquifer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3764H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3764H"><span>Is fractal 1/f scaling in stream chemistry universal?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hrachowitz, Markus</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Stream water chemistry data from catchments worldwide suggest that catchments act as filters that transform white noise, i.e. random, input signals such as in precipitation, into 1/f^α noise whose slope in a power spectrum typically ranges between -0.5>α>-1.5. This previously lead to the hypothesis that catchments act as fractal filters. In other words, it was posed that considering uncertainty, a slope of α=-1 may be a universal and intrinsic property of catchments. Such fractal scaling characteristics would have considerable implications on the predictability of stream water chemistry, as both, temporal short- and long-range interdependence and memory control the system response. While short memories and thus flatter slopes with α closer to 0 indicate poor short term but good long-term predictability, steeper slopes with values of α <<-1 indicate the opposite. In fractal systems, i.e. where α=-1, this therefore leads to inherent problems of robustly predicting both, short and long-term response patterns. The hypothesis of catchments acting as fractal filters (α=-1), however, remains to be tested more profoundly. It is, for example, not yet clear, if the observed inter-catchment variations in α indeed need to be interpreted as uncertainty and noise in the signal or if the variations underlie a systematic pattern and can be explained by some characteristic of catchment function, as was recently suggested in a modelling study based two experimental catchments (Hrachowitz et al., 2015). Here we will therefore further test the hypothesis that the spectral slope of stream water chemistry is not necessarily α=-1 and that catchments therefore do not inherently act as fractal filters. Further, it will be tested if closer links between the variations in spectral slope and hydrological function of catchments can be identified. The combined data-analysis and modelling study uses hydrochemical data (i.e. Cl- and O-18) from a wide range of catchments worldwide to allow a robust inter-comparison of response characteristics. The high number of study catchments is chosen to represent physically contrasting catchments in distinct climate zones, distinct landscape types and with distinct vegetation patterns. To identify potential patterns in the variations of α, firstly the power spectra of the observed stream chemistry in the study catchments are compared with physical catchment characteristics using statistical methods such as cluster analysis. In a subsequent step, the stream water dynamics of the study catchments are modeled using integrated catchment-scale conceptual models. Catchments for which the observed spectral signature can be meaningfully reproduced by the model, are used for further analysis, relating the model-internal flux and state dynamics to variations in α, to explore if systematic links between different flow processes and a can be established.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21H..03M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21H..03M"><span>Drought and tree mortality in tropical rainforest: understanding and differentiating functional responses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Meir, P.; Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Mencuccini, M.; Oliveira, A.; Binks, O.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Eliane, M.; Vasconcelos, S.; Kruijt, B.; Ferreira, L.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Our understanding of how forests respond to drought is especially constrained with respect to widespread tree mortality events. This limitation is particularly clear for tropical forests, despite the risk of drought to these ecosystems during the coming decades. We present new findings from the only current long-term 'ecosystem-scale' (1 ha) rainfall manipulation experiment in tropical rainforest, the Esecaflor experiment at Caxiuana National Forest, Para State, Brazil. Throughfall has been partially excluded from experimental forest at the Esecaflor experiment for more than a decade. We have previously demonstrated a capacity to model short-term physiological responses well, but longer term physiology and ecological dynamics remain challenging to understand and represent. In particular, high mortality and increased autotrophic respiration following extended drought are poorly understood phenomena, and their interaction with hydraulic responses and limitations needs to be characterised. We present initial data that for the first time combine carbon use and hydraulic metrics, comparing drought-vulnerable and non-vulnerable species that have experienced extended soil moisture deficit, as imposed in the experiment, also considering the response in soil respiration. We also discuss how these findings can be used to develop future empirical and modelling studies aimed at improving our capacity to predict the effects of drought on tropical forest ecosystems in Amazonia and in other tropical forest regions where species characteristics and environmental constraints may influence both short and long-term responses to drought.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/oxy1index.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/oxy1index.php"><span>Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement March 1998)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28411270','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28411270"><span>Short-Term Facilitation at a Detonator Synapse Requires the Distinct Contribution of Multiple Types of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chamberland, Simon; Evstratova, Alesya; Tóth, Katalin</p> <p>2017-05-10</p> <p>Neuronal calcium elevations are shaped by several key parameters, including the properties, density, and the spatial location of voltage-gated calcium channels (VGCCs). These features allow presynaptic terminals to translate complex firing frequencies and tune the amount of neurotransmitter released. Although synchronous neurotransmitter release relies on both P/Q- and N-type VGCCs at hippocampal mossy fiber-CA3 synapses, the specific contribution of VGCCs to calcium dynamics, neurotransmitter release, and short-term facilitation remains unknown. Here, we used random-access two-photon calcium imaging together with electrophysiology in acute mouse hippocampal slices to dissect the roles of P/Q- and N-type VGCCs. Our results show that N-type VGCCs control glutamate release at a limited number of release sites through highly localized Ca 2+ elevations and support short-term facilitation by enhancing multivesicular release. In contrast, Ca 2+ entry via P/Q-type VGCCs promotes the recruitment of additional release sites through spatially homogeneous Ca 2+ elevations. Altogether, our results highlight the specialized contribution of P/Q- and N-types VGCCs to neurotransmitter release. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In presynaptic terminals, neurotransmitter release is dynamically regulated by the transient opening of different types of voltage-gated calcium channels. Hippocampal giant mossy fiber terminals display extensive short-term facilitation during repetitive activity, with a large several fold postsynaptic response increase. Though, how giant mossy fiber terminals leverage distinct types of voltage-gated calcium channels to mediate short-term facilitation remains unexplored. Here, we find that P/Q- and N-type VGCCs generate different spatial patterns of calcium elevations in giant mossy fiber terminals and support short-term facilitation through specific participation in two mechanisms. Whereas N-type VGCCs contribute only to the synchronization of multivesicular release, P/Q-type VGCCs act through microdomain signaling to recruit additional release sites. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/374913-15$15.00/0.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21564266','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21564266"><span>A computational cognitive model of syntactic priming.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Reitter, David; Keller, Frank; Moore, Johanna D</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The psycholinguistic literature has identified two syntactic adaptation effects in language production: rapidly decaying short-term priming and long-lasting adaptation. To explain both effects, we present an ACT-R model of syntactic priming based on a wide-coverage, lexicalized syntactic theory that explains priming as facilitation of lexical access. In this model, two well-established ACT-R mechanisms, base-level learning and spreading activation, account for long-term adaptation and short-term priming, respectively. Our model simulates incremental language production and in a series of modeling studies, we show that it accounts for (a) the inverse frequency interaction; (b) the absence of a decay in long-term priming; and (c) the cumulativity of long-term adaptation. The model also explains the lexical boost effect and the fact that it only applies to short-term priming. We also present corpus data that verify a prediction of the model, that is, that the lexical boost affects all lexical material, rather than just heads. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=recombination&pg=4&id=EJ196020','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=recombination&pg=4&id=EJ196020"><span>An Approach toward the Development of a Functional Encoding Model of Short Term Memory during Reading.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Herndon, Mary Anne</p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>In a model of the functioning of short term memory, the encoding of information for subsequent storage in long term memory is simulated. In the encoding process, semantically equivalent paragraphs are detected for recombination into a macro information unit. (HOD)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.3850R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.3850R"><span>The impact of different flooding periods on the dynamics of pore water concentrations of As, Cr, Mo and V in a contaminated floodplain soil - results of a lysimeter study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rupp, Holger; Meissner, Ralph; Shaheen, Sabry; Rinklebe, Jörg</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Trace elements and arsenic (As) were transported with water during inundation in floodplain ecosystems, where they settled down and accumulated predominantly in depressions and low-lying terraces. Highly variable hydrological conditions in floodplains can affect the dynamics of pollutants. The impact of different flooding/drying periods on the temporal dynamics of pore water concentrations of As, Cr, Mo and V as a function of soil EH/pH changes and dynamics of DOC, Fe, Mn and SO42- was studied in a contaminated floodplain soil collected at the Elbe River (Germany). A specific groundwater lysimeter technique with two separate small lysimeter vessels served as replicates was used for this study. The groundwater level inside the lysimeters was controlled to simulate long term and short term flooding/drying. The long term (LT) flooding scenario consists of 94 days of flooding followed by similar drying term. The short term (ST) flooding/drying scenario comprises 21 days and was six times repeated. The entire experimental period (LT_ST) was about 450 days. Flooding of the soil caused a significant decrease of EH and pH. Concentrations of soluble As, Cr, Fe, Mn, Mo and DOC were higher under reducing conditions than under oxidizing conditions in LT. However, As and Cr tended to be mobilized under oxidizing conditions during ST, which might be due to slow kinetics of the redox reaction of As and Cr. Dynamics of Mo were more affected by changes of EH/pH as compared to As, Cr and V and governed mainly by Fe-Mn chemistry. Concentrations of V in ST were higher than in LT and were controlled particularly by pH and chemistry of Fe. The interactions between the elements and carriers studied were stronger during long flood-dry-cycles than during short cycles, which confirmed our hypothesis. We conclude that the dynamics of As, Cr, Mo and V are determined by the length of time soils are exposed to flooding, because drivers of element mobility need a certain time to provoke reactions in soils under changing conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25453174','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25453174"><span>A speed limit compliance model for dynamic speed display sign.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ardeshiri, Anam; Jeihani, Mansoureh</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Violating speed limits is a major cause of motor vehicle crashes. Various techniques have been adopted to ensure that posted speed limits are obeyed by drivers. This study investigates the effect of dynamic speed display signs (DSDSs) on drivers' compliance with posted speed limit. An extensive speed data collection upstream of, adjacent to, and downstream of DSDS locations on multiple road classes with different speed limits (25, 35, and 45 mph) was performed short-term and long-term after DSDS installation. Conventional statistical analysis, regression models, and a Bayesian network were developed to assess the DSDS's effectiveness. General compliance with speed limit (upstream of the DSDS location), time of day, day of week, duration of DSDS operation, and distance from the DSDS location were significantly correlated with speed limit compliance adjacent to the DSDS. While compliance with the speed limit due to the DSDS increased by 5%, speed reduction occurred in 40% of the cases. Since drivers were likely to increase their speed after passing the DSDS, it should be installed on critical points supplemented with enforcement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970021298','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970021298"><span>The Phase Space Structure Near Neptune Resonances in the Kuiper Belt</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Malhotra, Renu</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>The Solar system beyond Neptune is believed to house a population of small primordial bodies left over from the planet formation process. The region up to heliocentric distance -50 AU (a.k.a. the Kuiper Belt) may be the source of the observed short-period comets. In this region, the phase space structure near orbital resonances with Neptune is of special interest for the long-term stability of orbits. There is reason to believe that a significant fraction (perhaps most) of the Kuiper Belt objects reside preferentially in these resonance locations. This paper describes the dynamics of small objects near the major orbital resonances with Neptune. Estimates of the widths of stable resonance zones as well as the properties of resonant orbits are obtained from the circular, planar restricted three-body model. Although this model does not contain the full complexity of the long-term orbital dynamics of Kuiper Belt objects subject to the full N-body perturbations of all the planets, it does provide a baseline for the phase space structure and properties of resonant orbits in the trans-Neptunian Solar system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22405867','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22405867"><span>Short-term memory of motor network performance via activity-dependent potentiation of Na+/K+ pump function.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Hong-Yan; Sillar, Keith T</p> <p>2012-03-20</p> <p>Brain networks memorize previous performance to adjust their output in light of past experience. These activity-dependent modifications generally result from changes in synaptic strengths or ionic conductances, and ion pumps have only rarely been demonstrated to play a dynamic role. Locomotor behavior is produced by central pattern generator (CPG) networks and modified by sensory and descending signals to allow for changes in movement frequency, intensity, and duration, but whether or how the CPG networks recall recent activity is largely unknown. In Xenopus frog tadpoles, swim bout duration correlates linearly with interswim interval, suggesting that the locomotor network retains a short-term memory of previous output. We discovered an ultraslow, minute-long afterhyperpolarization (usAHP) in network neurons following locomotor episodes. The usAHP is mediated by an activity- and sodium spike-dependent enhancement of electrogenic Na(+)/K(+) pump function. By integrating spike frequency over time and linking the membrane potential of spinal neurons to network performance, the usAHP plays a dynamic role in short-term motor memory. Because Na(+)/K(+) pumps are ubiquitously expressed in neurons of all animals and because sodium spikes inevitably accompany network activity, the usAHP may represent a phylogenetically conserved but largely overlooked mechanism for short-term memory of neural network function. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28753456','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28753456"><span>Synaptic damage underlies EEG abnormalities in postanoxic encephalopathy: A computational study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ruijter, B J; Hofmeijer, J; Meijer, H G E; van Putten, M J A M</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>In postanoxic coma, EEG patterns indicate the severity of encephalopathy and typically evolve in time. We aim to improve the understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms underlying these EEG abnormalities. We used a mean field model comprising excitatory and inhibitory neurons, local synaptic connections, and input from thalamic afferents. Anoxic damage is modeled as aggravated short-term synaptic depression, with gradual recovery over many hours. Additionally, excitatory neurotransmission is potentiated, scaling with the severity of anoxic encephalopathy. Simulations were compared with continuous EEG recordings of 155 comatose patients after cardiac arrest. The simulations agree well with six common categories of EEG rhythms in postanoxic encephalopathy, including typical transitions in time. Plausible results were only obtained if excitatory synapses were more severely affected by short-term synaptic depression than inhibitory synapses. In postanoxic encephalopathy, the evolution of EEG patterns presumably results from gradual improvement of complete synaptic failure, where excitatory synapses are more severely affected than inhibitory synapses. The range of EEG patterns depends on the excitation-inhibition imbalance, probably resulting from long-term potentiation of excitatory neurotransmission. Our study is the first to relate microscopic synaptic dynamics in anoxic brain injury to both typical EEG observations and their evolution in time. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27260182','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27260182"><span>The dynamic relationship between health expenditure and economic growth: is the health-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Atilgan, Emre; Kilic, Dilek; Ertugrul, Hasan Murat</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>The well-known health-led growth hypothesis claims a positive correlation between health expenditure and economic growth. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the health-led growth hypothesis for the Turkish economy. The bound test approach, autoregressive-distributed lag approach (ARDL) and Kalman filter modeling are employed for the 1975-2013 period to examine the co-integration relationship between economic growth and health expenditure. The ARDL model is employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between health expenditure and economic growth. The results show that a 1 % increase in per-capita health expenditure will lead to a 0.434 % increase in per-capita gross domestic product. These findings are also supported by the Kalman filter model's results. Our findings show that the health-led growth hypothesis is supported for Turkey.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=information+AND+processing+AND+model+AND+recall&pg=3&id=EJ840170','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=information+AND+processing+AND+model+AND+recall&pg=3&id=EJ840170"><span>Slave to the Rhythm: Experimental Tests of a Model for Verbal Short-Term Memory and Long-Term Sequence Learning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hitch, Graham J.; Flude, Brenda; Burgess, Neil</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Three experiments tested predictions of a neural network model of phonological short-term memory that assumes separate representations for order and item information, order being coded via a context-timing signal [Burgess, N., & Hitch, G. J. (1999). Memory for serial order: A network model of the phonological loop and its timing. "Psychological…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......129K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......129K"><span>Non-equilibrium many-body influence on mode-locked Vertical External-cavity Surface-emitting Lasers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kilen, Isak Ragnvald</p> <p></p> <p>Vertical external-cavity surface-emitting lasers are ideal testbeds for studying the influence of the non-equilibrium many-body dynamics on mode locking. As we will show in this thesis, ultra short pulse generation involves a marked departure from Fermi carrier distributions assumed in prior theoretical studies. A quantitative model of the mode locking dynamics is presented, where the semiconductor Bloch equations with Maxwell's equation are coupled, in order to study the influences of quantum well carrier scattering on mode locking dynamics. This is the first work where the full model is solved without adiabatically eliminating the microscopic polarizations. In many instances we find that higher order correlation contributions (e.g. polarization dephasing, carrier scattering, and screening) can be represented by rate models, with the effective rates extracted at the level of second Born-Markov approximations. In other circumstances, such as continuous wave multi-wavelength lasing, we are forced to fully include these higher correlation terms. In this thesis we identify the key contributors that control mode locking dynamics, the stability of single pulse mode-locking, and the influence of higher order correlation in sustaining multi-wavelength continuous wave operation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21552070','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21552070"><span>Self-regulated learning in a dynamic coaching model for supporting college students with traumatic brain injury: two case reports.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kennedy, Mary R T; Krause, Miriam O</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>To describe a program that integrates self-regulated learning theory with supported education for college students with traumatic brain injury using a dynamic coaching model; to demonstrate the feasibility of developing and implementing such a program; and to identify individualized outcomes. Case study comparisons. University setting. Two severely injured students with cognitive impairments. A dynamic coaching model of supported education which incorporated self-regulated learning was provided for students with traumatic brain injury while attending college. Outcomes were both short and long term including decontextualized standardized test scores, self-reported academic challenges, number and specificity of reported strategies, grades on assignments, number of credits completed versus attempted, and changes in academic status and campus life. Students improved on graded assignments after strategy instruction and reported using more strategies by the end of the year. Students completed most of the credits they attempted, were in good academic standing, and made positive academic decisions. Performance on decontextualized tests pre- and postintervention was variable. It is feasible to deliver a hybrid supported education program that is dynamically responsive to individual students' needs and learning styles. Reasons for including both functional and standardized test outcomes are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24253189','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24253189"><span>A stochastic approach to noise modeling for barometric altimeters.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sabatini, Angelo Maria; Genovese, Vincenzo</p> <p>2013-11-18</p> <p>The question whether barometric altimeters can be applied to accurately track human motions is still debated, since their measurement performance are rather poor due to either coarse resolution or drifting behavior problems. As a step toward accurate short-time tracking of changes in height (up to few minutes), we develop a stochastic model that attempts to capture some statistical properties of the barometric altimeter noise. The barometric altimeter noise is decomposed in three components with different physical origin and properties: a deterministic time-varying mean, mainly correlated with global environment changes, and a first-order Gauss-Markov (GM) random process, mainly accounting for short-term, local environment changes, the effects of which are prominent, respectively, for long-time and short-time motion tracking; an uncorrelated random process, mainly due to wideband electronic noise, including quantization noise. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) system identification techniques are used to capture the correlation structure of the piecewise stationary GM component, and to estimate its standard deviation, together with the standard deviation of the uncorrelated component. M-point moving average filters used alone or in combination with whitening filters learnt from ARMA model parameters are further tested in few dynamic motion experiments and discussed for their capability of short-time tracking small-amplitude, low-frequency motions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21821624','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21821624"><span>Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L; Kendrick, Gary A</p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. A functional-structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional-structural plant modelling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5270338','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5270338"><span>Dynamics of Cooperation in a Task Completion Social Dilemma</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Passino, Kevin M.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We study the situation where the members of a community have the choice to participate in the completion of a common task. The process of completing the task involves only costs and no benefits to the individuals that participate in this process. However, completing the task results in changes that significantly benefit the community and that exceed the participation efforts. A task completion social dilemma arises when the short-term participation costs dissipate any interest in the community members to contribute to the task completion process and therefore to obtain the benefits that result from completing the task. In this work, we model the task completion problem using a dynamical system that characterizes the participation dynamics in the community and the task completion process. We show how this model naturally allows for the incorporation of several mechanisms that facilitate the emergence of cooperation and that have been studied in previous research on social dilemmas, including communication across a network, and indirect reciprocity through relative reputation. We provide mathematical analyses and computer simulations to study the qualitative properties of the participation dynamics in the community for different scenarios. PMID:28125721</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011NatMa..10..591O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011NatMa..10..591O"><span>Short-term plasticity and long-term potentiation mimicked in single inorganic synapses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ohno, Takeo; Hasegawa, Tsuyoshi; Tsuruoka, Tohru; Terabe, Kazuya; Gimzewski, James K.; Aono, Masakazu</p> <p>2011-08-01</p> <p>Memory is believed to occur in the human brain as a result of two types of synaptic plasticity: short-term plasticity (STP) and long-term potentiation (LTP; refs , , , ). In neuromorphic engineering, emulation of known neural behaviour has proven to be difficult to implement in software because of the highly complex interconnected nature of thought processes. Here we report the discovery of a Ag2S inorganic synapse, which emulates the synaptic functions of both STP and LTP characteristics through the use of input pulse repetition time. The structure known as an atomic switch, operating at critical voltages, stores information as STP with a spontaneous decay of conductance level in response to intermittent input stimuli, whereas frequent stimulation results in a transition to LTP. The Ag2S inorganic synapse has interesting characteristics with analogies to an individual biological synapse, and achieves dynamic memorization in a single device without the need of external preprogramming. A psychological model related to the process of memorizing and forgetting is also demonstrated using the inorganic synapses. Our Ag2S element indicates a breakthrough in mimicking synaptic behaviour essential for the further creation of artificial neural systems that emulate characteristics of human memory.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Nanot..29z5204K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Nanot..29z5204K"><span>Synaptic characteristics with strong analog potentiation, depression, and short-term to long-term memory transition in a Pt/CeO2/Pt crossbar array structure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Hyung Jun; Park, Daehoon; Yang, Paul; Beom, Keonwon; Kim, Min Ju; Shin, Chansun; Kang, Chi Jung; Yoon, Tae-Sik</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>A crossbar array of Pt/CeO2/Pt memristors exhibited the synaptic characteristics such as analog, reversible, and strong resistance change with a ratio of ∼103, corresponding to wide dynamic range of synaptic weight modulation as potentiation and depression with respect to the voltage polarity. In addition, it presented timing-dependent responses such as paired-pulse facilitation and the short-term to long-term memory transition by increasing amplitude, width, and repetition number of voltage pulse and reducing the interval time between pulses. The memory loss with a time was fitted with a stretched exponential relaxation model, revealing the relation of memory stability with the input stimuli strength. The resistance change was further enhanced but its stability got worse as increasing measurement temperature, indicating that the resistance was changed as a result of voltage- and temperature-dependent electrical charging and discharging to alter the energy barrier for charge transport. These detailed synaptic characteristics demonstrated the potential of crossbar array of Pt/CeO2/Pt memristors as artificial synapses in highly connected neuron-synapse network.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29633723','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29633723"><span>Synaptic characteristics with strong analog potentiation, depression, and short-term to long-term memory transition in a Pt/CeO2/Pt crossbar array structure.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Hyung Jun; Park, Daehoon; Yang, Paul; Beom, Keonwon; Kim, Min Ju; Shin, Chansun; Kang, Chi Jung; Yoon, Tae-Sik</p> <p>2018-06-29</p> <p>A crossbar array of Pt/CeO 2 /Pt memristors exhibited the synaptic characteristics such as analog, reversible, and strong resistance change with a ratio of ∼10 3 , corresponding to wide dynamic range of synaptic weight modulation as potentiation and depression with respect to the voltage polarity. In addition, it presented timing-dependent responses such as paired-pulse facilitation and the short-term to long-term memory transition by increasing amplitude, width, and repetition number of voltage pulse and reducing the interval time between pulses. The memory loss with a time was fitted with a stretched exponential relaxation model, revealing the relation of memory stability with the input stimuli strength. The resistance change was further enhanced but its stability got worse as increasing measurement temperature, indicating that the resistance was changed as a result of voltage- and temperature-dependent electrical charging and discharging to alter the energy barrier for charge transport. These detailed synaptic characteristics demonstrated the potential of crossbar array of Pt/CeO 2 /Pt memristors as artificial synapses in highly connected neuron-synapse network.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19690051','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19690051"><span>Animal cell hydraulics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Charras, Guillaume T; Mitchison, Timothy J; Mahadevan, L</p> <p>2009-09-15</p> <p>Water is the dominant ingredient of cells and its dynamics are crucial to life. We and others have suggested a physical picture of the cell as a soft, fluid-infiltrated sponge, surrounded by a water-permeable barrier. To understand water movements in an animal cell, we imposed an external, inhomogeneous osmotic stress on cultured cancer cells. This forced water through the membrane on one side, and out on the other. Inside the cell, it created a gradient in hydration, that we visualized by tracking cellular responses using natural organelles and artificially introduced quantum dots. The dynamics of these markers at short times were the same for normal and metabolically poisoned cells, indicating that the cellular responses are primarily physical rather than chemical. Our finding of an internal gradient in hydration is inconsistent with a continuum model for cytoplasm, but consistent with the sponge model, and implies that the effective pore size of the sponge is small enough to retard water flow significantly on time scales ( approximately 10-100 seconds) relevant to cell physiology. We interpret these data in terms of a theoretical framework that combines mechanics and hydraulics in a multiphase poroelastic description of the cytoplasm and explains the experimentally observed dynamics quantitatively in terms of a few coarse-grained parameters that are based on microscopically measurable structural, hydraulic and mechanical properties. Our fluid-filled sponge model could provide a unified framework to understand a number of disparate observations in cell morphology and motility.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA546608','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA546608"><span>Category Learning by Clustering with Extension to Dynamic Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-05-03</p> <p>making when short- and long-term rewards are in conflict. In a paper published in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , we examined whether state cues make...through Abstract Decision Spaces: Evaluating the Role of State Generalization in a Dynamic Decision-Making Task. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , 16, 957</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=information+AND+processing+AND+model+AND+recall&pg=7&id=EJ137220','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=information+AND+processing+AND+model+AND+recall&pg=7&id=EJ137220"><span>Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22..463V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22..463V"><span>The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhRvE..93e2150F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhRvE..93e2150F"><span>Transitions between refrigeration regions in extremely short quantum cycles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Feldmann, Tova; Kosloff, Ronnie</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The relation between the geometry of refrigeration cycles and their performance is explored. The model studied is based on a coupled spin system. Small cycle times, termed sudden refrigerators, develop coherence and inner friction. We explore the interplay between coherence and energy of the working medium employing a family of sudden cycles with decreasing cycle times. At the point of maximum coherence the cycle changes geometry. This region of cycle times is characterized by a dissipative resonance where heat is dissipated both to the hot and cold baths. We rationalize the change of geometry of the cycle as a result of a half-integer quantization which maximizes coherence. From this point on, increasing or decreasing the cycle time, eventually leads to refrigeration cycles. The transition point between refrigerators and short circuit cycles is characterized by a transition from finite to singular dynamical temperature. Extremely short cycle times reach a universal limit where all cycles types are equivalent.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/971640','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/971640"><span>CKow -- A More Transparent and Reliable Model for Chemical Transfer to Meat and Milk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; McKone, Thomas E.; Jolliet, Olivier</p> <p></p> <p>The objective of this study is to increase the understanding and transparency of chemical biotransfer modeling into meat and milk and explicitly confront the uncertainties in exposure assessments of chemicals that require such estimates. In cumulative exposure assessments that include food pathways, much of the overall uncertainty is attributable to the estimation of transfer into biota and through food webs. Currently, the most commonly used meat and milk-biotransfer models date back two decades and, in spite of their widespread use in multimedia exposure models few attempts have been made to advance or improve the outdated and highly uncertain Kow regressionsmore » used in these models. Furthermore, in the range of Kow where meat and milk become the dominant human exposure pathways, these models often provide unrealistic rates and do not reflect properly the transfer dynamics. To address these issues, we developed a dynamic three-compartment cow model (called CKow), distinguishing lactating and non-lactating cows. For chemicals without available overall removal rates in the cow, a correlation is derived from measured values reported in the literature to predict this parameter from Kow. Results on carry over rates (COR) and biotransfer factors (BTF) demonstrate that a steady-state ratio between animal intake and meat concentrations is almost never reached. For meat, empirical data collected on short term experiments need to be adjusted to provide estimates of average longer term behaviors. The performance of the new model in matching measurements is improved relative to existing models--thus reducing uncertainty. The CKow model is straight forward to apply at steady state for milk and dynamically for realistic exposure durations for meat COR.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25822133','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25822133"><span>The relation between short-term emotion dynamics and psychological well-being: A meta-analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Houben, Marlies; Van Den Noortgate, Wim; Kuppens, Peter</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Not only how good or bad people feel on average, but also how their feelings fluctuate across time is crucial for psychological health. The last 2 decades have witnessed a surge in research linking various patterns of short-term emotional change to adaptive or maladaptive psychological functioning, often with conflicting results. A meta-analysis was performed to identify consistent relationships between patterns of short-term emotion dynamics-including patterns reflecting emotional variability (measured in terms of within-person standard deviation of emotions across time), emotional instability (measured in terms of the magnitude of consecutive emotional changes), and emotional inertia of emotions over time (measured in terms of autocorrelation)-and relatively stable indicators of psychological well-being or psychopathology. We determined how such relationships are moderated by the type of emotional change, type of psychological well-being or psychopathology involved, valence of the emotion, and methodological factors. A total of 793 effect sizes were identified from 79 articles (N = 11,381) and were subjected to a 3-level meta-analysis. The results confirmed that overall, low psychological well-being co-occurs with more variable (overall ρ̂ = -.178), unstable (overall ρ̂ = -.205), but also more inert (overall ρ̂ = -.151) emotions. These effect sizes were stronger when involving negative compared with positive emotions. Moreover, the results provided evidence for consistency across different types of psychological well-being and psychopathology in their relation with these dynamical patterns, although specificity was also observed. The findings demonstrate that psychological flourishing is characterized by specific patterns of emotional fluctuations across time, and provide insight into what constitutes optimal and suboptimal emotional functioning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/petroleum_product_pricesindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/petroleum_product_pricesindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPCM...29I5701P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPCM...29I5701P"><span>Near transferable phenomenological n-body potentials for noble metals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pontikis, Vassilis; Baldinozzi, Gianguido; Luneville, Laurence; Simeone, David</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>We present a semi-empirical model of cohesion in noble metals with suitable parameters reproducing a selected set of experimental properties of perfect and defective lattices in noble metals. It consists of two short-range, n-body terms accounting respectively for attractive and repulsive interactions, the former deriving from the second moment approximation of the tight-binding scheme and the latter from the gas approximation of the kinetic energy of electrons. The stability of the face centred cubic versus the hexagonal compact stacking is obtained via a long-range, pairwise function of customary use with ionic pseudo-potentials. Lattice dynamics, molecular statics, molecular dynamics and nudged elastic band calculations show that, unlike previous potentials, this cohesion model reproduces and predicts quite accurately thermodynamic properties in noble metals. In particular, computed surface energies, largely underestimated by existing empirical cohesion models, compare favourably with measured values, whereas predicted unstable stacking-fault energy profiles fit almost perfectly ab initio evaluations from the literature. All together the results suggest that this semi-empirical model is nearly transferable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28585525','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28585525"><span>Near transferable phenomenological n-body potentials for noble metals.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pontikis, Vassilis; Baldinozzi, Gianguido; Luneville, Laurence; Simeone, David</p> <p>2017-09-06</p> <p>We present a semi-empirical model of cohesion in noble metals with suitable parameters reproducing a selected set of experimental properties of perfect and defective lattices in noble metals. It consists of two short-range, n-body terms accounting respectively for attractive and repulsive interactions, the former deriving from the second moment approximation of the tight-binding scheme and the latter from the gas approximation of the kinetic energy of electrons. The stability of the face centred cubic versus the hexagonal compact stacking is obtained via a long-range, pairwise function of customary use with ionic pseudo-potentials. Lattice dynamics, molecular statics, molecular dynamics and nudged elastic band calculations show that, unlike previous potentials, this cohesion model reproduces and predicts quite accurately thermodynamic properties in noble metals. In particular, computed surface energies, largely underestimated by existing empirical cohesion models, compare favourably with measured values, whereas predicted unstable stacking-fault energy profiles fit almost perfectly ab initio evaluations from the literature. All together the results suggest that this semi-empirical model is nearly transferable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/15162','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/15162"><span>Breeding strategies for north central tree improvement programs</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Ronald P. Overton; Hyun Kang</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>The rationales and concepts of long-term tree breeding are discussed and compared with those for short-term breeding. A model breeding program is reviewed which maximizes short-term genetic gain for currently important traits and provides genetic resources that can be used effectively in future short-term breeding. The resources of the north-central region are examined...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoftX...6..107A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoftX...6..107A"><span>MY SIRR: Minimalist agro-hYdrological model for Sustainable IRRigation management-Soil moisture and crop dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Albano, Raffaele; Manfreda, Salvatore; Celano, Giuseppe</p> <p></p> <p>The paper introduces a minimalist water-driven crop model for sustainable irrigation management using an eco-hydrological approach. Such model, called MY SIRR, uses a relatively small number of parameters and attempts to balance simplicity, accuracy, and robustness. MY SIRR is a quantitative tool to assess water requirements and agricultural production across different climates, soil types, crops, and irrigation strategies. The MY SIRR source code is published under copyleft license. The FOSS approach could lower the financial barriers of smallholders, especially in developing countries, in the utilization of tools for better decision-making on the strategies for short- and long-term water resource management.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412310H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412310H"><span>Critical zone evolution and the origins of organised complexity in watersheds</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.; Pelletier, J.; Rasmussen, C.; Chorover, J.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>The capacity of the landscape to store and transmit water is the result of a historical trajectory of landscape, soil and vegetation development, much of which is driven by hydrology itself. Progress in geomorphology and pedology has produced models of surface and sub-surface evolution in soil-mantled uplands. These dissected, denuding modeled landscapes are emblematic of the kinds of dissipative self-organized flow structures whose hydrologic organization may also be understood by low-dimensional hydrologic models. They offer an exciting starting-point for examining the mapping between the long-term controls on landscape evolution and the high-frequency hydrologic dynamics. Here we build on recent theoretical developments in geomorphology and pedology to try to understand how the relative rates of erosion, sediment transport and soil development in a landscape determine catchment storage capacity and the relative dominance of runoff process, flow pathways and storage-discharge relationships. We do so by using a combination of landscape evolution models, hydrologic process models and data from a variety of sources, including the University of Arizona Critical Zone Observatory. A challenge to linking the landscape evolution and hydrologic model representations is the vast differences in the timescales implicit in the process representations. Furthermore the vast array of processes involved makes parameterization of such models an enormous challenge. The best data-constrained geomorphic transport and soil development laws only represent hydrologic processes implicitly, through the transport and weathering rate parameters. In this work we propose to avoid this problem by identifying the relationship between the landscape and soil evolution parameters and macroscopic climate and geological controls. These macroscopic controls (such as the aridity index) have two roles: 1) they express the water and energy constraints on the long-term evolution of the landscape system, and 2) they bound the range of plausible short-term hydroclimatic regimes that may drive a particular landscape's hydrologic dynamics. To ensure that the hydrologic dynamics implicit in the evolutionary parameters are compatible with the dynamics observed in the hydrologic modeling, a set of consistency checks based on flow process dominance are developed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19246217','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19246217"><span>The short-term effects of running on the deformation of knee articular cartilage and its relationship to biomechanical loads at the knee.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Boocock, M; McNair, P; Cicuttini, F; Stuart, A; Sinclair, T</p> <p>2009-07-01</p> <p>To investigate the short-term effects of recreational running on the deformation of knee articular cartilage and to examine the relationship between changes in knee cartilage volume and biomechanical modulators of knee joint load. Twenty healthy volunteers participated in a two phase cross-sectional study. Session 1 involved Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of femoral and tibial cartilage volumes prior to and following a 30 min period of relaxed sitting, which was directly followed by a recreational run of 5000 steps. Subsequently, all participants undertook a laboratory study of their running gait to compare biomechanical derived measures of knee joint loading with changes in cartilage volume. Estimates of knee joint load were determined using a rigid-link segment, dynamic biomechanical model of the lower limbs and a simplified muscle model. Running resulted in significant deformation of the medial (5.3%, P<0.01) and lateral femoral cartilage (4.0%, P<0.05) and lateral aspect of the tibial cartilage (5.7%, P<0.01), with no significant differences between genders. Maximum compression stress was significantly correlated with percentage changes in lateral femoral cartilage volume (r(2)=0.456, P<0.05). No other biomechanical variables correlated with volume changes. Limited evidence was found linking biomechanical measures of knee joint loading and observed short-term deformation of knee articular cartilage volume following running. Further enhancement of knee muscle modelling and analysis of stress distribution across cartilage are needed if we are to fully understand the contribution of biomechanical factors to knee joint loading and the pathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis (OA).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/other_petroleum_consindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/other_petroleum_consindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4928096','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4928096"><span>Inhomogeneous Point-Processes to Instantaneously Assess Affective Haptic Perception through Heartbeat Dynamics Information</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Valenza, G.; Greco, A.; Citi, L.; Bianchi, M.; Barbieri, R.; Scilingo, E. P.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This study proposes the application of a comprehensive signal processing framework, based on inhomogeneous point-process models of heartbeat dynamics, to instantaneously assess affective haptic perception using electrocardiogram-derived information exclusively. The framework relies on inverse-Gaussian point-processes with Laguerre expansion of the nonlinear Wiener-Volterra kernels, accounting for the long-term information given by the past heartbeat events. Up to cubic-order nonlinearities allow for an instantaneous estimation of the dynamic spectrum and bispectrum of the considered cardiovascular dynamics, as well as for instantaneous measures of complexity, through Lyapunov exponents and entropy. Short-term caress-like stimuli were administered for 4.3–25 seconds on the forearms of 32 healthy volunteers (16 females) through a wearable haptic device, by selectively superimposing two levels of force, 2 N and 6 N, and two levels of velocity, 9.4 mm/s and 65 mm/s. Results demonstrated that our instantaneous linear and nonlinear features were able to finely characterize the affective haptic perception, with a recognition accuracy of 69.79% along the force dimension, and 81.25% along the velocity dimension. PMID:27357966</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26743839','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26743839"><span>Non-invasive detection and monitoring of experimental hydrocephalus with distortion product otoacoustic emissions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ezerarslan, Hande; Beriat, Güçlü Kaan; Nurhat, Raziye Handan; Kazancı, Burak; Çelikkan, Ferda Topal; Sabuncuoğlu, Bizden; Sabuncuoğlu, Hakan</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>We aimed to find out the effects of short term and long term hydrocephalus and intracranial ventricular volume changes on cochlear functions by using distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) in experimental hydrocephalus rat models for the first time in literature. This study was performed with 48 healthy, adult (8 weeks old), Sprague-Dawley rats which weighed between 200 and 240g. Six groups were formed in this study: short term control, short term sham, short term hydrocephalus, long term control, long term sham and long term hydrocephalus groups. Each group contained eight rats. Short term period was 4 weeks and long term period was 8 weeks after the study started. At the end of these periods, DPOAE measurements were performed and then rats were sacrificed to determine ventricular volumes. DPOAE values at all frequencies were significantly decreased in the short term hydrocephalus group when compared to the short term control and short term sham groups. DPOAE values at all frequencies were significantly decreased in the long term hydrocephalus group when compared to the long term control and long term sham groups. Besides, long term sham group which had higher ventricular volumes than long term control group also had lower DPOAE measurements. Significant associations were present between DPOAE measurements and ventricular volumes in hydrocephalus models. The functional disturbances in cochlear functions due to hydrocephalus have been demonstrated with DPOAE measurements in this study. DPOAE measurements may be thought as an easily applicable non-invasive method in detection and follow-up of patients with hydrocephalus. Our findings should be supported with clinical studies in humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172785&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172785&hterms=heart&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dheart"><span>Heart rate dynamics in patients with stable angina pectoris and utility of fractal and complexity measures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Makikallio, T. H.; Ristimae, T.; Airaksinen, K. E.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>Dynamic analysis techniques may uncover abnormalities in heart rate (HR) behavior that are not easily detectable with conventional statistical measures. However, the applicability of these new methods for detecting possible abnormalities in HR behavior in various cardiovascular disorders is not well established. Conventional measures of HR variability were compared with short-term (< or = 11 beats, alpha1) and long-term (> 11 beats, alpha2) fractal correlation properties and with approximate entropy of RR interval data in 38 patients with stable angina pectoris without previous myocardial infarction or cardiac medication at the time of the study and 38 age-matched healthy controls. The short- and long-term fractal scaling exponents (alpha1, alpha2) were significantly higher in the coronary patients than in the healthy controls (1.34 +/- 0.15 vs 1.11 +/- 0.12 [p <0.001] and 1.10 +/- 0.08 vs 1.04 +/- 0.06 [p <0.01], respectively), and they also had lower approximate entropy (p <0.05), standard deviation of all RR intervals (p <0.01), and high-frequency spectral component of HR variability (p <0.05). The short-term fractal scaling exponent performed better than other heart rate variability parameters in differentiating patients with coronary artery disease from healthy subjects, but it was not related to the clinical or angiographic severity of coronary artery disease or any single nonspectral or spectral measure of HR variability in this retrospective study. Patients with stable angina pectoris have altered fractal properties and reduced complexity in their RR interval dynamics relative to age-matched healthy subjects. Dynamic analysis may complement traditional analyses in detecting altered HR behavior in patients with stable angina pectoris.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5832261','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5832261"><span>Short-term action potential memory and electrical restitution: A cellular computational study on the stability of cardiac repolarization under dynamic pacing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Electrical restitution (ER) is a major determinant of repolarization stability and, under fast pacing rate, it reveals memory properties of the cardiac action potential (AP), whose dynamics have never been fully elucidated, nor their ionic mechanisms. Previous studies have looked at ER mainly in terms of changes in AP duration (APD) when the preceding diastolic interval (DI) changes and described dynamic conditions where this relationship shows hysteresis which, in turn, has been proposed as a marker of short-term AP memory and repolarization stability. By means of numerical simulations of a non-propagated human ventricular AP, we show here that measuring ER as APD versus the preceding cycle length (CL) provides additional information on repolarization dynamics which is not contained in the companion formulation. We focus particularly on fast pacing rate conditions with a beat-to-beat variable CL, where memory properties emerge from APD vs CL and not from APD vs DI and should thus be stored in APD and not in DI. We provide an ion-currents characterization of such conditions under periodic and random CL variability, and show that the memory stored in APD plays a stabilizing role on AP repolarization under pacing rate perturbations. The gating kinetics of L-type calcium current seems to be the main determinant of this safety mechanism. We also show that, at fast pacing rate and under otherwise identical pacing conditions, a periodically beat-to-beat changing CL is more effective than a random one in stabilizing repolarization. In summary, we propose a novel view of short-term AP memory, differentially stored between systole and diastole, which opens a number of methodological and theoretical implications for the understanding of arrhythmia development. PMID:29494628</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31E2244L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31E2244L"><span>Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22357861','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22357861"><span>Dynamics of normalization underlying masking in human visual cortex.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tsai, Jeffrey J; Wade, Alex R; Norcia, Anthony M</p> <p>2012-02-22</p> <p>Stimulus visibility can be reduced by other stimuli that overlap the same region of visual space, a process known as masking. Here we studied the neural mechanisms of masking in humans using source-imaged steady state visual evoked potentials and frequency-domain analysis over a wide range of relative stimulus strengths of test and mask stimuli. Test and mask stimuli were tagged with distinct temporal frequencies and we quantified spectral response components associated with the individual stimuli (self terms) and responses due to interaction between stimuli (intermodulation terms). In early visual cortex, masking alters the self terms in a manner consistent with a reduction of input contrast. We also identify a novel signature of masking: a robust intermodulation term that peaks when the test and mask stimuli have equal contrast and disappears when they are widely different. We fit all of our data simultaneously with family of a divisive gain control models that differed only in their dynamics. Models with either very short or very long temporal integration constants for the gain pool performed worse than a model with an integration time of ∼30 ms. Finally, the absolute magnitudes of the response were controlled by the ratio of the stimulus contrasts, not their absolute values. This contrast-contrast invariance suggests that many neurons in early visual cortex code relative rather than absolute contrast. Together, these results provide a more complete description of masking within the normalization framework of contrast gain control and suggest that contrast normalization accomplishes multiple functional goals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........10Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........10Y"><span>Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yu, Yan</p> <p></p> <p>North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.5557C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.5557C"><span>Improving deformation models by discounting transient signals in geodetic data: 2. Geodetic data, stress directions, and long-term strain rates in Italy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Carafa, Michele M. C.; Bird, Peter</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>The lithosphere of Italy is exposed to a number of different short-term strain transients, including but not limited to landslides, postseismic relaxation, and volcanic inflation/deflation. These transients affect GPS velocities and complicate the assessment of the long-term tectonic component of the surface deformation. In a companion paper we present a method for anticipating the principal patterns of nontectonic, short-term strains and building this information into the covariance matrix of the geodetic velocities. In this work we apply this method to Italian GPS velocities to build an augmented covariance matrix that characterizes all expected discrepancies between short- and long-term velocities. We find that formal uncertainties usually reported for GPS measurements are smaller than the variability of the same benchmarks across a geologic time span. Furthermore, we include in our modeling the azimuths of most compressive horizontal principal stresses (SHmax) because GPS data cannot resolve the active kinematics of coastal and offshore areas. We find that the final tectonic model can be made relatively insensitive to short-term interfering processes if the augmented covariance matrix and SHmax data records are used in the objective function. This results in a preferred neotectonic model that is also in closer agreement with independent geologic and seismological constraints and has the advantage of reducing short-term biases in forecasts of long-term seismicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172894&hterms=analysis+vulnerabilities&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Danalysis%2Bvulnerabilities','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172894&hterms=analysis+vulnerabilities&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Danalysis%2Bvulnerabilities"><span>Dynamic analysis of heart rate may predict subsequent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Makikallio, T. H.; Seppanen, T.; Airaksinen, K. E.; Koistinen, J.; Tulppo, M. P.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>Dynamics analysis of RR interval behavior and traditional measures of heart rate variability were compared between postinfarction patients with and without vulnerability to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a case-control study. Short-term fractal correlation of heart rate dynamics was better than traditional measures of heart rate variability in differentiating patients with and without life-threatening arrhythmias.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4734454','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4734454"><span>Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual’s internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on emotional bookkeeping to maintain their social bonds. PMID:26839737</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26839737','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26839737"><span>Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M; Sterck, Elisabeth H M</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual's internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on emotional bookkeeping to maintain their social bonds.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4105407','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4105407"><span>Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25048108','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25048108"><span>Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1901m0019S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1901m0019S"><span>Performance of asphaltic concrete incorporating styrene butadiene rubber subjected to varying aging condition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Salah, Faisal Mohammed; Jaya, Ramadhansyah Putra; Mohamed, Azman; Hassan, Norhidayah Abdul; Rosni, Nurul Najihah Mad; Mohamed, Abdullahi Ali; Agussabti</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The influence of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) on asphaltic concrete properties at different aging conditions was presented in this study. These aging conditions were named as un-aged, short-term, and long-term aging. The conventional asphalt binder of penetration grade 60/70 was used in this work. Four different levels of SBR addition were employed (i.e., 0 %, 1 %, 3 %, and 5 % by binder weight). Asphalt concrete mixes were prepared at selected optimum asphalt content (5 %). The performance was evaluated based on Marshall Stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests. Results indicated the improving stability and permanent deformation characteristics that the mixes modified with SBR polymer have under aging conditions. The result also showed that the stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests have the highest rates compared to the short-term aging and un-aged samples. Thus, the use of 5 % SBR can produce more durable asphalt concrete mixtures with better serviceability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015WRR....51.9447T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015WRR....51.9447T"><span>Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009SPIE.7496E..1MZ','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009SPIE.7496E..1MZ"><span>Modeling of cortical signals using echo state networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhou, Hanying; Wang, Yongji; Huang, Jiangshuai</p> <p>2009-10-01</p> <p>Diverse modeling frameworks have been utilized with the ultimate goal of translating brain cortical signals into prediction of visible behavior. The inputs to these models are usually multidimensional neural recordings collected from relevant regions of a monkey's brain while the outputs are the associated behavior which is typically the 2-D or 3-D hand position of a primate. Here our task is to set up a proper model in order to figure out the move trajectories by input the neural signals which are simultaneously collected in the experiment. In this paper, we propose to use Echo State Networks (ESN) to map the neural firing activities into hand positions. ESN is a newly developed recurrent neural network(RNN) model. Besides its dynamic property and short term memory just as other recurrent neural networks have, it has a special echo state property which endows it with the ability to model nonlinear dynamic systems powerfully. What distinguished it from transitional recurrent neural networks most significantly is its special learning method. In this paper we train this net with a refined version of its typical training method and get a better model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21985958','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21985958"><span>Short-term plasticity as a neural mechanism supporting memory and attentional functions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jääskeläinen, Iiro P; Ahveninen, Jyrki; Andermann, Mark L; Belliveau, John W; Raij, Tommi; Sams, Mikko</p> <p>2011-11-08</p> <p>Based on behavioral studies, several relatively distinct perceptual and cognitive functions have been defined in cognitive psychology such as sensory memory, short-term memory, and selective attention. Here, we review evidence suggesting that some of these functions may be supported by shared underlying neuronal mechanisms. Specifically, we present, based on an integrative review of the literature, a hypothetical model wherein short-term plasticity, in the form of transient center-excitatory and surround-inhibitory modulations, constitutes a generic processing principle that supports sensory memory, short-term memory, involuntary attention, selective attention, and perceptual learning. In our model, the size and complexity of receptive fields/level of abstraction of neural representations, as well as the length of temporal receptive windows, increases as one steps up the cortical hierarchy. Consequently, the type of input (bottom-up vs. top down) and the level of cortical hierarchy that the inputs target, determine whether short-term plasticity supports purely sensory vs. semantic short-term memory or attentional functions. Furthermore, we suggest that rather than discrete memory systems, there are continuums of memory representations from short-lived sensory ones to more abstract longer-duration representations, such as those tapped by behavioral studies of short-term memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29338243','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29338243"><span>Metadynamics Enhanced Markov Modeling of Protein Dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Biswas, Mithun; Lickert, Benjamin; Stock, Gerhard</p> <p>2018-05-31</p> <p>Enhanced sampling techniques represent a versatile approach to account for rare conformational transitions in biomolecules. A particularly promising strategy is to combine massive parallel computing of short molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories (to sample the free energy landscape of the system) with Markov state modeling (to rebuild the kinetics from the sampled data). To obtain well-distributed initial structures for the short trajectories, it is proposed to employ metadynamics MD, which quickly sweeps through the entire free energy landscape of interest. Being only used to generate initial conformations, the implementation of metadynamics can be simple and fast. The conformational dynamics of helical peptide Aib 9 is adopted to discuss various technical issues of the approach, including metadynamics settings, minimal number and length of short MD trajectories, and the validation of the resulting Markov models. Using metadynamics to launch some thousands of nanosecond trajectories, several Markov state models are constructed that reveal that previous unbiased MD simulations of in total 16 μs length cannot provide correct equilibrium populations or qualitative features of the pathway distribution of the short peptide.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2726822','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2726822"><span>Inclusion of Regional Poroelastic Material Properties Better Predicts Biomechanical Behavior of Lumbar Discs Subjected to Dynamic Loading</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Williams, Jamie R.; Natarajan, Raghu N.; Andersson, Gunnar B.J.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Understanding the relationship between repetitive lifting and the breakdown of disc tissue over several years of exposure is difficult to study in vivo and in vitro. The aim of this investigation was to develop a three-dimensional poroelastic finite element model of a lumbar motion segment that reflects the biological properties and behaviors of in vivo disc tissues including swelling pressure due to the proteoglycans and strain dependent permeability and porosity. It was hypothesized that when modeling the annulus, prescribing tissue specific material properties will not be adequate for studying the in vivo loading and unloading behavior of the disc. Rather, regional variations of these properties, which are known to exist within the annulus, must also be included. Finite element predictions were compared to in vivo measurements published by Tyrrell et al., (Tyrrell et al., 1985) of percent change in total stature for two loading protocols, short-term creep loading and standing recovery and short-term cyclic loading with standing recovery. The model in which the regional variations of material properties in the annulus had been included provided an overall better prediction of the in vivo behavior as compared to the model in which the annulus properties were assumed to be homogenous. This model will now be used to study the relationship between repetitive lifting and disc degeneration. PMID:17156786</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/steo_hglindex.php','EIAPUBS'); return false;" href="https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/steo_hglindex.php"><span>Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Supply and Demand</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/reports/">EIA Publications</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The hydrocarbon gas liquids (ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasoline) module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of U.S. production, consumption, refinery inputs, net imports, and inventories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2908723','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2908723"><span>Using decision tree analysis to identify risk factors for relapse to smoking</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Piper, Megan E.; Loh, Wei-Yin; Smith, Stevens S.; Japuntich, Sandra J.; Baker, Timothy B.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>This research used classification tree analysis and logistic regression models to identify risk factors related to short- and long-term abstinence. Baseline and cessation outcome data from two smoking cessation trials, conducted from 2001 to 2002, in two Midwestern urban areas, were analyzed. There were 928 participants (53.1% women, 81.8% white) with complete data. Both analyses suggest that relapse risk is produced by interactions of risk factors and that early and late cessation outcomes reflect different vulnerability factors. The results illustrate the dynamic nature of relapse risk and suggest the importance of efficient modeling of interactions in relapse prediction. PMID:20397871</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11936663','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11936663"><span>Dynamic online sewer modelling in Helsingborg.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hernebring, C; Jönsson, L E; Thorén, U B; Møller, A</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Within the last decade, the sewer system in Helsingborg, Sweden has been rehabilitated in many ways along with the reconstruction of the WWTP Oresundsverket in order to obtain a high degree of nitrogen and phosphorus removal. In that context a holistic view has been applied in order to optimise the corrective measures as seen from the effects in the receiving waters. A sewer catchment model has been used to evaluate several operation strategies and the effect of introducing RTC. Recently, a MOUSE ONLINE system was installed. In this phase the objective is to establish a stable communication with the SCADA system and to generate short-term flow forecasts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3937552','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3937552"><span>Optogenetic perturbations reveal the dynamics of an oculomotor integrator</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Gonçalves, Pedro J.; Arrenberg, Aristides B.; Hablitzel, Bastian; Baier, Herwig; Machens, Christian K.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Many neural systems can store short-term information in persistently firing neurons. Such persistent activity is believed to be maintained by recurrent feedback among neurons. This hypothesis has been fleshed out in detail for the oculomotor integrator (OI) for which the so-called “line attractor” network model can explain a large set of observations. Here we show that there is a plethora of such models, distinguished by the relative strength of recurrent excitation and inhibition. In each model, the firing rates of the neurons relax toward the persistent activity states. The dynamics of relaxation can be quite different, however, and depend on the levels of recurrent excitation and inhibition. To identify the correct model, we directly measure these relaxation dynamics by performing optogenetic perturbations in the OI of zebrafish expressing halorhodopsin or channelrhodopsin. We show that instantaneous, inhibitory stimulations of the OI lead to persistent, centripetal eye position changes ipsilateral to the stimulation. Excitatory stimulations similarly cause centripetal eye position changes, yet only contralateral to the stimulation. These results show that the dynamics of the OI are organized around a central attractor state—the null position of the eyes—which stabilizes the system against random perturbations. Our results pose new constraints on the circuit connectivity of the system and provide new insights into the mechanisms underlying persistent activity. PMID:24616666</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10189484','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10189484"><span>Chaos and simple determinism in reversed field pinch plasmas: Nonlinear analysis of numerical simulation and experimental data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Watts, Christopher A.</p> <p></p> <p>In this dissertation the possibility that chaos and simple determinism are governing the dynamics of reversed field pinch (RFP) plasmas is investigated. To properly assess this possibility, data from both numerical simulations and experiment are analyzed. A large repertoire of nonlinear analysis techniques is used to identify low dimensional chaos in the data. These tools include phase portraits and Poincare sections, correlation dimension, the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents and short term predictability. In addition, nonlinear noise reduction techniques are applied to the experimental data in an attempt to extract any underlying deterministic dynamics. Two model systems are used to simulatemore » the plasma dynamics. These are the DEBS code, which models global RFP dynamics, and the dissipative trapped electron mode (DTEM) model, which models drift wave turbulence. Data from both simulations show strong indications of low dimensional chaos and simple determinism. Experimental date were obtained from the Madison Symmetric Torus RFP and consist of a wide array of both global and local diagnostic signals. None of the signals shows any indication of low dimensional chaos or low simple determinism. Moreover, most of the analysis tools indicate the experimental system is very high dimensional with properties similar to noise. Nonlinear noise reduction is unsuccessful at extracting an underlying deterministic system.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1215..182J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1215..182J"><span>The dynamic of FUS-induced BBB Opening in Mouse Brain assessed by contrast enhanced MRI</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jenne, Jürgen W.; Krafft, Axel J.; Maier, Florian; Krause, Marie N.; Kleber, Susanne; Huber, Peter E.; Martin-Villalba, Ana; Bock, Michael</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>Focused ultrasound (FUS) in combination with the administration of gas-filled microbubbles, can induce a localized and reversible opening of the blood brain barrier (BBB). Contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been demonstrated as a precise tool to monitor such a local BBB disruption. However, the opening/closing mechanisms of the BBB with FUS are still largely unknown. In this ongoing project, we study the BBB opening dynamics in mouse brain comparing an interstitial and an intravascular MR contrast agent (CA). FUS in mouse brain was performed with an MRI compatible treatment setup (1.7 MHz fix-focus US transducer, f' = 68 mm, NA = 0.44; focus: 8.1 mm length; O/ = 1.1 mm) in a 1.5 T whole body MRI system. For BBB opening, forty 10 ms-long FUS-pulses were applied at a repetition rate of 1 Hz at 1 MPa. The i.v. administration of the micro bubbles (50 μl SonoVue®) was started simultaneously with FUS exposure. To analyze the BBB opening process, short-term and long-term MRI signal dynamics of the interstitial MR contrast agent Magnevist® and the intravascular CA Vasovist® (Bayer-Schering) were studied. To assess short-term signal dynamics, T1-weighted inversion recovery turbo FLASH images (1s) were repeatedly acquired. Repeated 3D FLASH acquisitions (90 s) were used to assess long-term MRI signal dynamics. The short-term MRI signal enhancements showed comparable time constants for both types of MR contrast agents: 1.1 s (interstitial) vs. 0.8 s (intravascular). This time constant may serve as a time constant of the BBB opening process with the given FUS exposure parameters. For the long-term signal dynamics the intravascular CA (62±10 min) showed a fife times greater time constant as the interstitial contrast agent (12±10 min). This might be explained by the high molecular weight (˜60 kDa) of the intravascular Vasovist due to its reversible binding to blood serum albumin resulting in a prolonged half-life in the blood stream compared to the interstitial CA. As the intravascular CA offers a much longer time window for therapy assessment, FUS-BBB therapy control with an intravascular CA might be favorable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhyA..383...96N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhyA..383...96N"><span>Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael</p> <p>2007-09-01</p> <p>Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29745714','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29745714"><span>What do short-term and long-term relationships look like? Building the relationship coordination and strategic timing (ReCAST) model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Eastwick, Paul W; Keneski, Elizabeth; Morgan, Taylor A; McDonald, Meagan A; Huang, Sabrina A</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Close relationships research has examined committed couples (e.g., dating relationships, marriages) using intensive methods that plot relationship development over time. But a substantial proportion of people's real-life sexual experiences take place (a) before committed relationships become "official" and (b) in short-term relationships; methods that document the time course of relationships have rarely been applied to these contexts. We adapted a classic relationship trajectory-plotting technique to generate the first empirical comparisons between the features of people's real-life short-term and long-term relationships across their entire timespan. Five studies compared long-term and short-term relationships in terms of the timing of relationship milestones (e.g., flirting, first sexual intercourse) and the occurrence/intensity of important relationship experiences (e.g., romantic interest, strong sexual desire, attachment). As romantic interest was rising and partners were becoming acquainted, long-term and short-term relationships were indistinguishable. Eventually, romantic interest in short-term relationships plateaued and declined while romantic interest in long-term relationships continued to rise, ultimately reaching a higher peak. As relationships progressed, participants evidenced more features characteristic of the attachment-behavioral system (e.g., attachment, caregiving) in long-term than short-term relationships but similar levels of other features (e.g., sexual desire, self-promotion, intrasexual competition). These data inform a new synthesis of close relationships and evolutionary psychological perspectives called the Relationship Coordination and Strategic Timing (ReCAST) model. ReCAST depicts short-term and long-term relationships as partially overlapping trajectories (rather than relationships initiated with distinct strategies) that differ in their progression along a normative relationship development sequence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26119140','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26119140"><span>Predicting short-term positive affect in individuals with social anxiety disorder: The role of selected personality traits and emotion regulation strategies.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Weisman, Jaclyn S; Rodebaugh, Thomas L; Lim, Michelle H; Fernandez, Katya C</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>Recently, research has provided support for a moderate, inverse relationship between social anxiety and dispositional positive affect. However, the dynamics of this relationship remain poorly understood. The present study evaluates whether certain personality traits and emotion regulation variables predict short-term positive affect for individuals with social anxiety disorder and healthy controls. Positive affect as measured by two self-report instruments was assessed before and after two tasks in which the participant conversed with either a friend or a romantic partner. Tests of models examining the hypothesized prospective predictors revealed that the paths did not differ significantly across diagnostic group and both groups showed the hypothesized patterns of endorsement for the emotion regulation variables. Further, a variable reflecting difficulty redirecting oneself when distressed prospectively predicted one measure of positive affect. Additional research is needed to explore further the role of emotion regulation strategies on positive emotions for individuals higher in social anxiety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25196807','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25196807"><span>Does exercise habit strength moderate the relationship between emotional distress and short-term memory in Malaysian primary school children?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zainol, Nurul Ain; Hashim, Hairul Anuar</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>We examined the moderating effects of exercise habit strength on the relationship between emotional distress and short-term memory in primary school children. The sample consisted of 165 primary school students (10-12 years old). Participants completed measures of emotional distress, exercise habit strength, and the Digit Span Test. Mid-year exam results were used as an indicator of academic performance. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to analyse the data. The results of SEM revealed an acceptable fit for the hypothesised model. Exercise habit was positively associated with short-term memory, and better short-term memory was associated with better academic performance. However, although an inverse relationship was found between emotional distress and short-term memory, a positive association was found between exercise habit strength and emotional distress. The findings indicate that exercise habit is positively associated with cognitive ability and mediates the negative effect of distress.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CeMDA.130....9T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CeMDA.130....9T"><span>Averaged model to study long-term dynamics of a probe about Mercury</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tresaco, Eva; Carvalho, Jean Paulo S.; Prado, Antonio F. B. A.; Elipe, Antonio; de Moraes, Rodolpho Vilhena</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>This paper provides a method for finding initial conditions of frozen orbits for a probe around Mercury. Frozen orbits are those whose orbital elements remain constant on average. Thus, at the same point in each orbit, the satellite always passes at the same altitude. This is very interesting for scientific missions that require close inspection of any celestial body. The orbital dynamics of an artificial satellite about Mercury is governed by the potential attraction of the main body. Besides the Keplerian attraction, we consider the inhomogeneities of the potential of the central body. We include secondary terms of Mercury gravity field from J_2 up to J_6, and the tesseral harmonics \\overline{C}_{22} that is of the same magnitude than zonal J_2. In the case of science missions about Mercury, it is also important to consider third-body perturbation (Sun). Circular restricted three body problem can not be applied to Mercury-Sun system due to its non-negligible orbital eccentricity. Besides the harmonics coefficients of Mercury's gravitational potential, and the Sun gravitational perturbation, our average model also includes Solar acceleration pressure. This simplified model captures the majority of the dynamics of low and high orbits about Mercury. In order to capture the dominant characteristics of the dynamics, short-period terms of the system are removed applying a double-averaging technique. This algorithm is a two-fold process which firstly averages over the period of the satellite, and secondly averages with respect to the period of the third body. This simplified Hamiltonian model is introduced in the Lagrange Planetary equations. Thus, frozen orbits are characterized by a surface depending on three variables: the orbital semimajor axis, eccentricity and inclination. We find frozen orbits for an average altitude of 400 and 1000 km, which are the predicted values for the BepiColombo mission. Finally, the paper delves into the orbital stability of frozen orbits and the temporal evolution of the eccentricity of these orbits.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EJPh...38b5001C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EJPh...38b5001C"><span>Pulsejet engine dynamics in vertical motion using momentum conservation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cheche, Tiberius O.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>The momentum conservation law is applied to analyse the dynamics of a pulsejet engine in vertical motion in a uniform gravitational field in the absence of friction. The model predicts the existence of a terminal speed given the frequency of the short pulses. The conditions where the engine does not return to the starting position are identified. The number of short periodic pulses after which the engine returns to the starting position is found to be independent of the exhaust velocity and gravitational field intensity for a certain frequency of pulses. The pulsejet engine and turbojet engine aircraft models of dynamics are compared. Also the octopus dynamics is modelled. The paper is addressed to intermediate undergraduate students of classical mechanics and aerospace engineering.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2714044','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2714044"><span>Short-Term Adaptive Modification of Dynamic Ocular Accommodation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bharadwaj, Shrikant R.; Vedamurthy, Indu; Schor, Clifton M.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Purpose Indirect observations suggest that the neural control of accommodation may undergo adaptive recalibration in response to age-related biomechanical changes in the accommodative system. However, there has been no direct demonstration of such an adaptive capability. This investigation was conducted to demonstrate short-term adaptation of accommodative step response dynamics to optically induced changes in neuromuscular demands. Methods Repetitive changes in accommodative effort were induced in 15 subjects (18–34 years) with a double-step adaptation paradigm wherein an initial 2-D step change in blur was followed 350 ms later by either a 2-D step increase in blur (increasing-step paradigm) or a 1.75-D step decrease in blur (decreasing-step paradigm). Peak velocity, peak acceleration, and latency of 2-D single-step test responses were assessed before and after 1.5 hours of training with these paradigms. Results Peak velocity and peak acceleration of 2-D step responses increased after adaptation to the increasing-step paradigm (9/12 subjects), and they decreased after adaptation to the decreasing-step paradigm (4/9 subjects). Adaptive changes in peak velocity and peak acceleration generalized to responses that were smaller (1 D) and larger (3 D) than the 2-D adaptation stimulus. The magnitude of adaptation correlated poorly with the subject's age, but it was significantly negatively correlated with the preadaptation dynamics. Response latency decreased after adaptation, irrespective of the direction of adaptation. Conclusions Short-term adaptive changes in accommodative step response dynamics could be induced, at least in some of our subjects between 18 and 34 years, with a directional bias toward increasing rather than decreasing the dynamics. PMID:19255153</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017HESS...21.6425O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017HESS...21.6425O"><span>Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ockenden, Mary C.; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith J.; Collins, Adrian L.; Evans, Robert; Falloon, Peter D.; Forber, Kirsty J.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Hollaway, Michael J.; Kahana, Ron; Macleod, Christopher J. A.; Villamizar, Martha L.; Wearing, Catherine; Withers, Paul J. A.; Zhou, Jian G.; Benskin, Clare McW. H.; Burke, Sean; Cooper, Richard J.; Freer, Jim E.; Haygarth, Philip M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus (P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality, with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation. However, understanding and prediction of P transfers in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamics in three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK. For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways) model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with non-linear rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions affected the catchment response. For second-order models, the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and 15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P, confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10-50 km2). The models led to a better understanding of the dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1336044-probing-short-range-nucleon-nucleon-interactions-electron-ion-collider','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1336044-probing-short-range-nucleon-nucleon-interactions-electron-ion-collider"><span>Probing short-range nucleon-nucleon interactions with an electron-ion collider</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Miller, Gerald A.; Sievert, Matthew D.; Venugopalan, Raju</p> <p>2016-04-07</p> <p>For this research, we derive the cross section for exclusive vector meson production in high-energy deeply inelastic scattering off a deuteron target that disintegrates into a proton and a neutron carrying large relative momentum in the final state. This cross section can be expressed in terms of a novel gluon transition generalized parton distribution (T-GPD); the hard scale in the final state makes the T-GPD sensitive to the short-distance nucleon-nucleon interaction. We perform a toy model computation of this process in a perturbative framework and discuss the time scales that allow the separation of initial- and final-state dynamics in themore » T-GPD. We outline the more general computation based on the factorization suggested by the toy computation: In particular, we discuss the relative role of “pointlike” and “geometric” Fock configurations that control the parton dynamics of short-range nucleon-nucleon scattering. With the aid of exclusive J/ψ production data at the Hadron-Electron Ring Accelerator at DESY, as well as elastic nucleon-nucleon cross sections, we estimate rates for exclusive deuteron photodisintegration at a future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Our results, obtained using conservative estimates of EIC integrated luminosities, suggest that center-of-mass energies sNN ~12GeV 2 of the neutron-proton subsystem can be accessed. We argue that the high energies of the EIC can address outstanding dynamical questions regarding the short-range quark-gluon structure of nuclear forces by providing clean gluon probes of such “knockout” exclusive reactions in light and heavy nuclei.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A23H3346C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A23H3346C"><span>Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015MTDM...19...21L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015MTDM...19...21L"><span>Uniaxial creep property and viscoelastic-plastic modelling of ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Yintang; Wu, Minger</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil has been widely used in spatial structures for its light weight and high transparency. This paper studies short- and long-term creep properties of ETFE foil. Two series of short-term creep and recovery tests were performed, in which residual strain was observed. A long-term creep test of ETFE foil was also conducted and lasted about 400 days. A viscoelastic-plastic model was then established to describe short-term creep and recovery behaviour of ETFE foil. This model contains a traditional generalised Kelvin part and an added steady-flow component to represent viscoelastic and viscoplastic behaviour, respectively. The model can fit tests' data well at three stresses and six temperatures. Additionally, time-temperature superposition was adopted to simulate long-term creep behaviour of ETFE foil. Horizontal shifting factors were determined by W.L.F. equation in which transition temperature was simulated by shifting factors. Using this equation, long-term creep behaviours at three temperatures were predicted. The results of the long-term creep test showed that a short-term creep test at identical temperatures was insufficient to predict additional creep behaviour, and the long-term creep test verified horizontal shifting factors which were derived from the time-temperature superposition.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/5917','DOTNTL'); return false;" href="https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/5917"><span>Short-term integrated forecasting system : 1993 model documentation report</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntlsearch.bts.gov/tris/index.do">DOT National Transportation Integrated Search</a></p> <p></p> <p>1993-12-01</p> <p>The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate shor...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17761440','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17761440"><span>A mesostate-space model for EEG and MEG.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J</p> <p>2007-10-15</p> <p>We present a multi-scale generative model for EEG, that entails a minimum number of assumptions about evoked brain responses, namely: (1) bioelectric activity is generated by a set of distributed sources, (2) the dynamics of these sources can be modelled as random fluctuations about a small number of mesostates, (3) mesostates evolve in a temporal structured way and are functionally connected (i.e. influence each other), and (4) the number of mesostates engaged by a cognitive task is small (e.g. between one and a few). A Variational Bayesian learning scheme is described that furnishes the posterior density on the models parameters and its evidence. Since the number of meso-sources specifies the model, the model evidence can be used to compare models and find the optimum number of meso-sources. In addition to estimating the dynamics at each cortical dipole, the mesostate-space model and its inversion provide a description of brain activity at the level of the mesostates (i.e. in terms of the dynamics of meso-sources that are distributed over dipoles). The inclusion of a mesostate level allows one to compute posterior probability maps of each dipole being active (i.e. belonging to an active mesostate). Critically, this model accommodates constraints on the number of meso-sources, while retaining the flexibility of distributed source models in explaining data. In short, it bridges the gap between standard distributed and equivalent current dipole models. Furthermore, because it is explicitly spatiotemporal, the model can embed any stochastic dynamical causal model (e.g. a neural mass model) as a Markov process prior on the mesostate dynamics. The approach is evaluated and compared to standard inverse EEG techniques, using synthetic data and real data. The results demonstrate the added-value of the mesostate-space model and its variational inversion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..MAR.P1099S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..MAR.P1099S"><span>Spatiotemporal discrimination in neural networks with short-term synaptic plasticity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shlaer, Benjamin; Miller, Paul</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Cells in recurrently connected neural networks exhibit bistability, which allows for stimulus information to persist in a circuit even after stimulus offset, i.e. short-term memory. However, such a system does not have enough hysteresis to encode temporal information about the stimuli. The biophysically described phenomenon of synaptic depression decreases synaptic transmission strengths due to increased presynaptic activity. This short-term reduction in synaptic strengths can destabilize attractor states in excitatory recurrent neural networks, causing the network to move along stimulus dependent dynamical trajectories. Such a network can successfully separate amplitudes and durations of stimuli from the number of successive stimuli. Stimulus number, duration and intensity encoding in randomly connected attractor networks with synaptic depression. Front. Comput. Neurosci. 7:59., and so provides a strong candidate network for the encoding of spatiotemporal information. Here we explicitly demonstrate the capability of a recurrent neural network with short-term synaptic depression to discriminate between the temporal sequences in which spatial stimuli are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19720012600','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19720012600"><span>Preliminary evaluation of the effect of a dynamic preferential runway system upon community noise disturbance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Patterson, H. P.; Edmiston, R. P.; Connor, W. K.</p> <p>1972-01-01</p> <p>A dynamic preferential runway system (DPRS) was developed for John F. Kennedy International Airport for the purpose of controlling short term noise exposure in the neighboring communities. The DPRS is a computer-aided procedure for optimum selection of runways from the standpoint of noise and is based upon a community disturbance model which takes into account flyover levels, size of exposed populations, time of day and week, and persistence of overflights. A preliminary evaluation of the DPRS is presented on the basis of social survey data and telephone complaint records, for the trial period of August and September, 1971. Comparative use is made of data taken in a previous survey of the same community areas in 1969.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527"><span>On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Reiter, E. R.</p> <p>1979-01-01</p> <p>Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=start+AND+business&pg=7&id=EJ898034','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=start+AND+business&pg=7&id=EJ898034"><span>Three Models for Short-Term Study Abroad</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Sachau, Daniel; Brasher, Niel; Fee, Scott</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Nearly 250,000 U.S. college students participate in study abroad programs each year. A growing proportion of students are participating in short-term study abroad programs. Despite the large number of students in these programs, there are relatively few articles that describe how to start or manage a short-term, business-related, study abroad…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29664346','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29664346"><span>An Agent-Based Model for the Role of Short-Term Memory Enhancement in the Emergence of Grammatical Agreement.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vera, Javier</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>What is the influence of short-term memory enhancement on the emergence of grammatical agreement systems in multi-agent language games? Agreement systems suppose that at least two words share some features with each other, such as gender, number, or case. Previous work, within the multi-agent language-game framework, has recently proposed models stressing the hypothesis that the emergence of a grammatical agreement system arises from the minimization of semantic ambiguity. On the other hand, neurobiological evidence argues for the hypothesis that language evolution has mainly related to an increasing of short-term memory capacity, which has allowed the online manipulation of words and meanings participating particularly in grammatical agreement systems. Here, the main aim is to propose a multi-agent language game for the emergence of a grammatical agreement system, under measurable long-range relations depending on the short-term memory capacity. Computer simulations, based on a parameter that measures the amount of short-term memory capacity, suggest that agreement marker systems arise in a population of agents equipped at least with a critical short-term memory capacity.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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