Exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy for irritable bowel syndrome. A single-case experimental design across 13 subjects.

PubMed

Boersma, Katja; Ljótsson, Brjánn; Edebol-Carlman, Hanna; Schrooten, Martien; Linton, Steven J; Brummer, Robert J

2016-11-01

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a highly prevalent disorder with a significant impact on quality of life. The presence of psychological symptoms in IBS patients such as catastrophic worry and behavioral avoidance suggests the possible efficacy of cognitive behavioral interventions. Exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has proven to be a promising approach but has only been investigated in a few studies and mainly via the Internet. Therefore, the aims of this study were to extend and replicate previous findings and to evaluate whether an individual, face-to-face, exposure-based CBT leads to improvement in gastrointestinal symptoms, pain catastrophizing, avoidance behavior and quality of life in IBS patients. Thirteen patients with IBS according to Rome III criteria participated in a single-case experimental study using a five-week baseline and a subsequent twelve-session intervention phase focusing on psycho-education, mindfulness and in vivo exposure. Standardized measurement of gastrointestinal symptoms, pain catastrophizing, avoidance behavior and quality of life was conducted weekly during baseline as well as intervention phase and at six-month follow-up. Results showed that over 70% of patients improved significantly on gastrointestinal symptoms, pain catastrophizing, and quality of life. Effects on avoidance behavior were modest. These results strengthen and extend earlier findings and provide further support for the efficacy of exposure-based strategies for IBS.

Evaluation of minimum coverage size and orbital accuracy at different orbital regimes for one order of magnitude reduction of the catastrophic collision risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Ortiz, Noelia; Domínguez-González, Raúl; Krag, Holger

2015-03-01

One of the main objectives of Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) systems is to support space collision avoidance activities. This collision avoidance capability aims to significantly reduce the catastrophic collision risk of space objects. In particular, for the case of the future European SST, the objective is translated into a risk reduction of one order of magnitude whilst keeping a low number of false alarm events. In order to translate this aim into system requirements, an evaluation of the current catastrophic collision risk for different orbital regimes is addressed. The reduction of such risk depends on the amount of catalogued objects (coverage) and the knowledge of the associated orbits in the catalogue (accuracy). This paper presents an analysis of the impact of those two aspects in the capability to reduce the catastrophic collision risk at some orbital regimes. A reliable collision avoidance support depends on the accuracy of the predicted miss-events. The assessment of possible conjunctions is normally done by computing the estimated miss-distances between objects (which is compared with a defined distance threshold) or by computing the associated collision risk (which is compared with the corresponding accepted collision probability level). This second method is normally recommended because it takes into account the reliability of the orbits and allows reducing false alarm events. The collision risk depends on the estimated miss-distance, the object sizes and the accuracy of the two orbits at the time of event. This accuracy depends on the error of the orbits at the orbit determination epoch and the error derived from the propagation from that epoch up to the time of event. The modified DRAMA ARES (Domínguez-González et al., 2012, 2013a,b; Gelhaus et al., 2014) provides information on the expected number of encounters for a given mission and year. It also provides information on the capacity to reduce the risk of collision by means of avoidance manoeuvres as a function of the accepted collision probability level and the cataloguing performance of the surveillance system (determined by the limiting coverage size-altitude function and the orbital data accuracy). The assessment of avoidance strategies takes into account statistical models of the space object environment, as provided by ESA's MASTER-2009 model, and a mathematical framework for the collision risk estimation as used in satellite operations. In this papers, results are provided for some orbit types, covering different orbital regimes. The analysis is done for different cataloguing capacity levels (accuracy and coverage), concluding that 5 cm are to be covered at LEO for diminishing the catastrophic collision risk by one order of magnitude. For MEO and GEO regime, coverage down to 40 and 100 cm respectively allow similar reduction of risk.

Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts.

PubMed

Vidiella, Blai; Sardanyés, Josep; Solé, Ricard

2018-06-01

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and contain a similar percentage of the human population. Theoretical models and palaeoclimatic data predict a grim future, with rapid shifts towards a desert state, with accelerated diversity losses and ecological collapses. These shifts are a consequence of the special nonlinearities resulting from ecological facilitation. Here, we investigate a simple model of semiarid ecosystems identifying the so-called ghost, which appears after a catastrophic transition from a vegetated to a desert state once a critical rate of soil degradation is overcome. The ghost involves a slowdown of transients towards the desert state, making the ecosystem seem stable even though vegetation extinction is inevitable. We use this model to show how to exploit the ecological ghosts to avoid collapse. Doing so involves the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation capable of maintaining a stable community once the catastrophic shift condition has been achieved. This intervention method is successfully tested under the presence of demographic stochastic fluctuations. © 2018 The Author(s).

Posttraumatic stress symptoms and the diathesis-stress model of chronic pain and disability in patients undergoing major surgery.

PubMed

Martin, Andrea L; Halket, Eileen; Asmundson, Gordon J G; Flora, David B; Katz, Joel

2010-01-01

To (1) use structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine relationships proposed in Turk's diathesis-stress model of chronic pain and disability as well as (2) investigate what role, if any, posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) play in predicting pain disability, relative to some of the other factors in the model. The study sample consisted of 208 patients scheduled for general surgery, 21 to 60 years of age (mean age=47.18 y, SD=9.72 y), who reported experiencing persistent pain for an average of 5.56 years (SD=7.90 y). At their preadmission hospital visit, patients completed the Anxiety Sensitivity Index, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale-20, Pain Disability Index, posttraumatic stress disorder Checklist, and rated the average intensity of their pain (0 to 10 numeric rating scale). SEM was used to test a model of chronic pain disability and to explore potential relationships between PTSS and factors in the diathesis-stress model. SEM results provided support for a model in which anxiety sensitivity predicted fear of pain and catastrophizing, fear of pain predicted escape/avoidance, and escape/avoidance predicted pain disability. Results also provided support for a feedback loop between disability and fear of pain. SEM analyses provided preliminary support for the inclusion of PTSS in the diathesis-stress model, with PTSS accounting for a significant proportion of the variance in pain disability. Results provide empirical support for aspects of Turk's diathesis-stress model in a sample of patients with persistent pain. Findings also offer preliminary support for the role of PTSS in fear-avoidance models of chronic pain.

A cross-cultural investigation of attachment style, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs, and symptom severity in irritable bowel syndrome.

PubMed

Gerson, C D; Gerson, M-J; Chang, L; Corazziari, E S; Dumitrascu, D; Ghoshal, U C; Porcelli, P; Schmulson, M; Wang, W-A; Zali, M

2015-04-01

Little information exists regarding whether psychosocial variables in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) vary by geographic location. Adult attachment is an important psychological concept rooted in childhood relationship experience that has not been previously studied in IBS. Catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs have been described in IBS and may be affected by attachment. In this cross-cultural study, we determined: (i) whether attachment differs between IBS patients and controls, (ii) whether geographic location has a significant effect on attachment style, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs, and (iii) how all three variables correlate with IBS symptom severity. 463 IBS patients, with moderate to severe symptom scores, and 192 healthy controls completed validated questionnaires about attachment, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs and IBS-SSS in nine locations, USA (New York, Los Angeles), Mexico, Italy (Rome, Bari), Romania, Iran, India, and China. Attachment anxiety and avoidance scores were significantly higher in IBS patients than in controls (p < 0.001). This was particularly true for the fearful-avoidant attachment category, especially in China and Romania. Path analysis showed that attachment anxiety and avoidance had indirect effects on IBS-SSS through catastrophizing (p < 0.0001) and negative pain beliefs (p = 0.005). All three psychosocial measures varied significantly depending on location. In the IBS population studied, attachment style was significantly different in IBS compared to a control population. Geographic differences in attachment, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs were documented and their correlation with symptom severity and thus, research of psychosocial variables in IBS should take into account the location of the population studied. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Financial catastrophe, treatment discontinuation and death associated with surgically operable cancer in South-East Asia: Results from the ACTION Study.

PubMed

Jan, Stephen; Kimman, Merel; Peters, Sanne A E; Woodward, Mark

2015-06-01

This study assessed the extent to which individuals with surgically operable cancer in Southeast Asia experience financially catastrophic out-of-pocket costs, discontinuation of treatment, or death. The ACTION study is a prospective, 8-country, cohort study of adult patients recruited consecutively with an initial diagnosis of cancer from public and private hospitals. Participants were interviewed at baseline and 3 months. In this paper, we identified 4,584 participants in whom surgery was indicated in initial treatment plans and assessed the following competing outcomes: death, financial catastrophe (out-of-pocket costs of >30% of annual household income), treatment discontinuation, and hospitalization without financial catastrophe incurred. We then analyzed a range of predictors using a multinomial regression model. Of the participants, 72% were female and 44% had health insurance at baseline. At 3 months, 31% of participants incurred financial catastrophe, 8% had died, 23% had discontinued treatment, and 38% were hospitalized but avoided financial catastrophe. Health insurance status was found to be associated with lower odds of treatment discontinuation (odds ratio [OR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.47-0.77) relative to hospitalization without financial catastrophe. Women had greater odds of financial catastrophe than men (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.05-1.74), whereas lower socioeconomic status (range of indicators) was generally found to be associated with higher odds of death, treatment discontinuation, and financial catastrophe. Priority should be given to measures such as programs to extend social health insurance to offset the out-of-pocket costs associated with surgery for cancer faced in particular by women, the uninsured, and individuals of low socioeconomic status in Southeast Asia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Timing matters: change depends on the stage of treatment in cognitive behavioral therapy for panic disorder with agoraphobia.

PubMed

Gloster, Andrew T; Klotsche, Jens; Gerlach, Alexander L; Hamm, Alfons; Ströhle, Andreas; Gauggel, Siegfried; Kircher, Tilo; Alpers, Georg W; Deckert, Jürgen; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich

2014-02-01

The mechanisms of action underlying treatment are inadequately understood. This study examined 5 variables implicated in the treatment of panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG): catastrophic agoraphobic cognitions, anxiety about bodily sensations, agoraphobic avoidance, anxiety sensitivity, and psychological flexibility. The relative importance of these process variables was examined across treatment phases: (a) psychoeducation/interoceptive exposure, (b) in situ exposure, and (c) generalization/follow-up. Data came from a randomized controlled trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for PD/AG (n = 301). Outcomes were the Panic and Agoraphobia Scale (Bandelow, 1995) and functioning as measured in the Clinical Global Impression scale (Guy, 1976). The effect of process variables on subsequent change in outcome variables was calculated using bivariate latent difference score modeling. Change in panic symptomatology was preceded by catastrophic appraisal and agoraphobic avoidance across all phases of treatment, by anxiety sensitivity during generalization/follow-up, and by psychological flexibility during exposure in situ. Change in functioning was preceded by agoraphobic avoidance and psychological flexibility across all phases of treatment, by fear of bodily symptoms during generalization/follow-up, and by anxiety sensitivity during exposure. The effects of process variables on outcomes differ across treatment phases and outcomes (i.e., symptomatology vs. functioning). Agoraphobic avoidance and psychological flexibility should be investigated and therapeutically targeted in addition to cognitive variables. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Sovereign cat bonds and infrastructure project financing.

PubMed

Croson, David; Richter, Andreas

2003-06-01

We examine the opportunities for using catastrophe-linked securities (or equivalent forms of nondebt contingent capital) to reduce the total costs of funding infrastructure projects in emerging economies. Our objective is to elaborate on methods to reduce the necessity for unanticipated (emergency) project funding immediately after a natural disaster. We also place the existing explanations of sovereign-level contingent capital into a catastrophic risk management framework. In doing so, we address the following questions. (1) Why might catastrophe-linked securities be useful to a sovereign nation, over and above their usefulness for insurers and reinsurers? (2) Why are such financial instruments ideally suited for protecting infrastructure projects in emerging economies, under third-party sponsorship, from low-probability, high-consequence events that occur as a result of natural disasters? (3) How can the willingness to pay of a sovereign government in an emerging economy (or its external project sponsor), who values timely completion of infrastructure projects, for such instruments be calculated? To supplement our treatment of these questions, we use a multilayer spreadsheet-based model (in Microsoft Excel format) to calculate the overall cost reductions possible through the judicious use of catastrophe-based financial tools. We also report on numerical comparative statics on the value of contingent-capital financing to avoid project disruption based on varying costs of capital, probability and consequences of disasters, the feasibility of strategies for mid-stage project abandonment, and the timing of capital commitments to the infrastructure investment. We use these results to identify high-priority applications of catastrophe-linked securities so that maximal protection can be realized if the total number of catastrophe instruments is initially limited. The article concludes with potential extensions to our model and opportunities for future research.

Neuroticism and maladaptive coping in patients with functional somatic syndromes.

PubMed

Frølund Pedersen, Heidi; Frostholm, Lisbeth; Søndergaard Jensen, Jens; Ørnbøl, Eva; Schröder, Andreas

2016-11-01

The cognitive-behavioural model of functional somatic syndromes (FSS) proposes a multifactorial aetiology consisting of predisposing, precipitating and perpetuating factors. In this study, we sought to investigate three questions that can be drawn from this model: (1) Do patients with FSS show high levels of neuroticism? (2) Does neuroticism affect physical health and social functioning, either directly or indirectly through maladaptive coping? (3) Does more adaptive coping mediate the effect of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) on outcome? Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) using additional data. We used yet unpublished data on neuroticism (measured with Temperament and Character Inventory, Revised) and coping (measured with Coping Strategies Questionnaire) together with already reported outcomes (physical health and social functioning measured with SF-36) from an RCT comparing group CBT with enhanced usual care in 120 patients with a range of FSS. Neuroticism was measured at referral, while coping and outcomes were measured at referral, baseline, 4 and 16 months after randomization. Our hypotheses were explored through a series of cross-sectional (linear regression and structural equation models) and longitudinal (mediation) analyses. Patients with FSS showed higher levels of neuroticism than two healthy comparison groups. At referral, symptom catastrophizing partly mediated the negative association between neuroticism and outcome. Reduction in symptom catastrophizing during group CBT partially mediated its long-term effect. The results give support to a generic cognitive-behavioural model of FSS. Targeting symptom catastrophizing may be an essential component in CBT for patients with FSS, regardless of their specific diagnosis. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Previous studies have found support for single components of the cognitive-behavioural model such as dysfunctional illness beliefs or avoidant coping. Most studies have investigated single functional somatic syndromes (FSS) such as fibromyalgia or irritable bowel syndrome. What does this study add? Predisposing neuroticism was linked to poor physical health through symptom catastrophizing across a range of FSS. Reduced symptom catastrophizing during group cognitive-behavioural therapy partially mediated its long-term effect. Addressing symptom catastrophizing may be a key element of the management of patients with FSS. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Dimensions Underlying Measures of Disability, Personal Factors, and Health Status in Cervical Radiculopathy

PubMed Central

Halvorsen, Marie; Kierkegaard, Marie; Harms-Ringdahl, Karin; Peolsson, Anneli; Dedering, Åsa

2015-01-01

Abstract This cross-sectional study sought to identify dimensions underlying measures of impairment, disability, personal factors, and health status in patients with cervical radiculopathy. One hundred twenty-four patients with magnetic resonance imaging-verified cervical radiculopathy, attending a neurosurgery clinic in Sweden, participated. Data from clinical tests and questionnaires on disability, personal factors, and health status were used in a principal-component analysis (PCA) with oblique rotation. The PCA supported a 3-component model including 14 variables from clinical tests and questionnaires, accounting for 73% of the cumulative percentage. The first component, pain and disability, explained 56%. The second component, health, fear-avoidance beliefs, kinesiophobia, and self-efficacy, explained 9.2%. The third component including anxiety, depression, and catastrophizing explained 7.6%. The strongest-loading variables of each dimension were “present neck pain intensity,” “fear avoidance,” and “anxiety.” The three underlying dimensions identified and labeled Pain and functioning, Health, beliefs, and kinesiophobia, and Mood state and catastrophizing captured aspects of importance for cervical radiculopathy. Since the variables “present neck pain intensity,” “fear avoidance,” and “anxiety” had the strongest loading in each of the three dimensions; it may be important to include them in a reduced multidimensional measurement set in cervical radiculopathy. PMID:26091482

Dimensions Underlying Measures of Disability, Personal Factors, and Health Status in Cervical Radiculopathy: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Halvorsen, Marie; Kierkegaard, Marie; Harms-Ringdahl, Karin; Peolsson, Anneli; Dedering, Åsa

2015-06-01

This cross-sectional study sought to identify dimensions underlying measures of impairment, disability, personal factors, and health status in patients with cervical radiculopathy. One hundred twenty-four patients with magnetic resonance imaging-verified cervical radiculopathy, attending a neurosurgery clinic in Sweden, participated. Data from clinical tests and questionnaires on disability, personal factors, and health status were used in a principal-component analysis (PCA) with oblique rotation. The PCA supported a 3-component model including 14 variables from clinical tests and questionnaires, accounting for 73% of the cumulative percentage. The first component, pain and disability, explained 56%. The second component, health, fear-avoidance beliefs, kinesiophobia, and self-efficacy, explained 9.2%. The third component including anxiety, depression, and catastrophizing explained 7.6%. The strongest-loading variables of each dimension were "present neck pain intensity," "fear avoidance," and "anxiety." The three underlying dimensions identified and labeled Pain and functioning, Health, beliefs, and kinesiophobia, and Mood state and catastrophizing captured aspects of importance for cervical radiculopathy. Since the variables "present neck pain intensity," "fear avoidance," and "anxiety" had the strongest loading in each of the three dimensions; it may be important to include them in a reduced multidimensional measurement set in cervical radiculopathy.

[Evaluation of a two-dimensional scale for the assessment of fear avoidance beliefs in elderly chronic low back pain patients].

PubMed

Quint, S; Raich, M; Luckmann, J

2011-06-01

There is evidence on the importance of fear avoidance beliefs (FAB) as prognostic risk factors in elderly patients suffering from chronic low back pain (CLBP). However, so far there is no validated German instrument for measuring FAB in elderly CLBP patients. The aim of the study presented was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Catastrophizing Avoidance Scale D-65+ (CAS-D-65+) within a population of elderly patients with CLBP. A cross-sectional study was conducted with measurement repeated after 4 weeks in 68 CLBP patients aged 64 years and older. The CAS-D-65+ was analyzed performing an item analysis and retest reliability. For validation standardized assessment methods (Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia [TSK], Photography of Daily Activity - Short electronic Version [Phoda-SeV], 5-Item-FAB, pain, disability, well-being and strain) were used. Internal consistency (Cronbach's α) ranged from 0.87 to 0.92 for total scale and from 0.71 to 0.89 for the sub-scales "catastrophizing" and "avoidance", retest reliability (r(tt)) ranged from 0.67 for the sub-scale "catastrophizing" to 0.70 for total scale and sub-scale "avoidance". The CAS-D-65+ showed moderate and strong effect sizes (Cohen's d) with other related FAB scales and external criteria. As shown in this study the CAS-D-65+ is a reliable and a valid instrument for the assessment of FAB in older patients with CLBP.

Effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy based on the pain sustainment/exacerbation model in patients with tension-type headache: a pilot study.

PubMed

Motoya, Ryo; Oda, Keiko; Ito, Eiji; Ichikawa, Masahiro; Sato, Taku; Watanabe, Tadashi; Sakuma, Jun; Saito, Kiyoshi; Niwa, Shin-Ichi; Yabe, Hirooki

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to carry out a program of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) based on the pain sustainment/exacerbation model for tension-type headache (TTH) patients and to examine the effectiveness as a pilot study. The participants were 4 TTH patients who consulted the outpatient clinic of a university hospital. It consisted of 4 individualized sessions as CBT program (including psychological education, self-monitoring, relaxation technique, cognitive restricting and exposure), and a follow-up examination was carried out 1 month after its completion. The sessions, each of which was 60 minutes long, were executed at weekly intervals. As a result, the score of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) decreased after program compared with before program in all patients. The score of escape/avoidance was also reduced at the post-program and follow-up (1 month later) compared with the score of pre-program in patients except Case 2, in whom the score was 0 throughout the study. The degree of the Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) improved by program and changed to "mild" or "none" in all participants. These findings show that in patients with TTH this short CBT program has effect on pain catastrophizing, escape/avoidance and daily disability.

A clinical perspective on a pain neuroscience education approach to manual therapy.

PubMed

Louw, Adriaan; Nijs, Jo; Puentedura, Emilio J

2017-07-01

In recent years, there has been an increased interest in pain neuroscience education (PNE) in physical therapy. There is growing evidence for the efficacy of PNE to decrease pain, disability, fear-avoidance, pain catastrophization, limited movement, and health care utilization in people struggling with pain. PNE teaches people in pain more about the biology and physiology of their pain experience including processes such as central sensitization, peripheral sensitization, allodynia, inhibition, facilitation, neuroplasticity and more. PNE's neurobiological model often finds itself at odds with traditional biomedical models used in physical therapy. Traditional biomedical models, focusing on anatomy, pathoanatomy, and biomechanics have been shown to have limited efficacy in helping people understand their pain, especially chronic pain, and may in fact even increase a person's pain experience by increasing fear-avoidance and pain catastrophization. An area of physical therapy where the biomedical model is used a lot is manual therapy. This contrast between PNE and manual therapy has seemingly polarized followers from each approach to see PNE as a 'hands-off' approach even having clinicians categorize patients as either in need of receiving PNE (with no hands-on), or hands-on with no PNE. In this paper, we explore the notion of PNE and manual therapy co-existing. PNE research has shown to have immediate effects of various clinical signs and symptoms associated with central sensitization. Using a model of sensitization (innocuous, noxious, and allodynia), we argue that PNE can be used in a manual therapy model, especially treating someone where the nervous system has become increasingly hypervigilant. Level of Evidence : VII.

Household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China: determinants and policy implications

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Much of research on household catastrophic medical expenses in China has focused on less developed areas and little is known about this problem in more developed areas. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and determinants of catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China. Methods Data were obtained from a health care utilization and expense survey of 11,577 households conducted in eastern China in 2008. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was calculated using the method introduced by the World Health Organization. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants. Results The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China ranged from 9.24% to 24.79%. Incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was lower if the head of household had a higher level of education, labor insurance coverage, while the incidence was higher if they lived in rural areas, had a family member with chronic diseases, had a child younger than 5 years old, had a person at home who was at least 65 years old, and had a household member who was hospitalized. Moreover, the impact of the economic level on catastrophic medical expenses was non-linear. The poorest group had a lower incidence than that of the second lowest income group and the group with the highest income had a higher incidence than that of the second highest income group. In addition, region was a significant determinant. Conclusions Reducing the incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses should be one of the priorities of health policy. It can be achieved by improving residents’ health status to reduce avoidable health services such as hospitalization. It is also important to design more targeted health insurance in order to increase financial support for such vulnerable groups as the poor, chronically ill, children, and senior populations. PMID:24308317

Immediate Effects of Mirror Therapy in Patients With Shoulder Pain and Decreased Range of Motion.

PubMed

Louw, Adriaan; Puentedura, Emilio J; Reese, Dave; Parker, Paula; Miller, Terra; Mintken, Paul E

2017-10-01

To determine the effects of a brief single component of the graded motor imagery (GMI) sequence (mirror therapy) on active range of motion (AROM), pain, fear avoidance, and pain catastrophization in patients with shoulder pain. Single-blind case series. Three outpatient physical therapy clinics. Patients with shoulder pain and limited AROM (N=69). Patients moved their unaffected shoulder through comfortable AROM in front of a mirror so that it appeared that they were moving their affected shoulder. We measured pain, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance, and AROM in 69 consecutive patients with shoulder pain and limited AROM before and immediately after mirror therapy. There were significant differences in self-reported pain (P=.014), pain catastrophization (P<.001), and the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (P=.012) immediately after mirror therapy; however, the means did not meet or exceed the minimal detectable change (MDC) for each outcome measure. There was a significant increase (mean, 14.5°) in affected shoulder flexion AROM immediately postmirror therapy (P<.001), which exceeded the MDC of 8°. A brief mirror therapy intervention can result in statistically significant improvements in pain, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance, and shoulder flexion AROM in patients presenting with shoulder pain with limited AROM. The immediate changes may allow a quicker transition to multimodal treatment, including manual therapy and exercise in these patients. Further studies, including randomized controlled trials, are needed to investigate these findings and determine longer-term effects. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical activity and the mediating effect of fear, depression, anxiety, and catastrophizing on pain related disability in people with chronic low back pain.

PubMed

Marshall, Paul W M; Schabrun, Siobhan; Knox, Michael F

2017-01-01

Chronic low back pain is a worldwide burden that is not being abated with our current knowledge and treatment of the condition. The fear-avoidance model is used to explain the relationship between pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. However there are gaps in empirical support for pathways proposed within this model, and no evidence exists as to whether physical activity moderates these pathways. This was a cross-sectional study of 218 people with chronic low back pain. Multiple mediation analyses were conducted to determine the role of fear, catastrophizing, depression, and anxiety in the relationship between pain and disability. Separate analyses were performed with physical activity as the moderator. Individuals were classified as performing regular structured physical activity if they described on average once per week for > 30-minutes an activity classified at least moderate intensity (≥ 4-6 METs), activity prescribed by an allied health professional for their back pain, leisure time sport or recreation, or self-directed physical activity such as resistance exercise. Fear, catastrophizing, and depression significantly mediated the relationship between pain and disability (p<0.001). However the mediating effect of catastrophizing was conditional upon weekly physical activity. That is, the indirect effect for catastrophizing mediating the relationship between pain and disability was only significant for individuals reporting weekly physical activity (B = 1.31, 95% CI 0.44 to 2.23), compared to individuals reporting no weekly physical activity (B = 0.21, 95% CI -0.50 to 0.97). Catastrophizing also mediated the relationship between pain and fear (B = 0.37, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.62), with higher scores explaining 53% of the total effect of pain on fear. These results support previous findings about the importance of fear and depression as factors that should be targeted in low back pain patients to reduce back pain related disability. We have also extended understanding for the mediating effect of catastrophizing on back pain related disability. Back pain patients engaged with regular physical activity may require counselling with regards to negative pain perceptions.

Physical activity and the mediating effect of fear, depression, anxiety, and catastrophizing on pain related disability in people with chronic low back pain

PubMed Central

Marshall, Paul W. M.; Schabrun, Siobhan; Knox, Michael F.

2017-01-01

Background Chronic low back pain is a worldwide burden that is not being abated with our current knowledge and treatment of the condition. The fear-avoidance model is used to explain the relationship between pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. However there are gaps in empirical support for pathways proposed within this model, and no evidence exists as to whether physical activity moderates these pathways. Methods This was a cross-sectional study of 218 people with chronic low back pain. Multiple mediation analyses were conducted to determine the role of fear, catastrophizing, depression, and anxiety in the relationship between pain and disability. Separate analyses were performed with physical activity as the moderator. Individuals were classified as performing regular structured physical activity if they described on average once per week for > 30-minutes an activity classified at least moderate intensity (≥ 4–6 METs), activity prescribed by an allied health professional for their back pain, leisure time sport or recreation, or self-directed physical activity such as resistance exercise. Results Fear, catastrophizing, and depression significantly mediated the relationship between pain and disability (p<0.001). However the mediating effect of catastrophizing was conditional upon weekly physical activity. That is, the indirect effect for catastrophizing mediating the relationship between pain and disability was only significant for individuals reporting weekly physical activity (B = 1.31, 95% CI 0.44 to 2.23), compared to individuals reporting no weekly physical activity (B = 0.21, 95% CI -0.50 to 0.97). Catastrophizing also mediated the relationship between pain and fear (B = 0.37, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.62), with higher scores explaining 53% of the total effect of pain on fear. Conclusions These results support previous findings about the importance of fear and depression as factors that should be targeted in low back pain patients to reduce back pain related disability. We have also extended understanding for the mediating effect of catastrophizing on back pain related disability. Back pain patients engaged with regular physical activity may require counselling with regards to negative pain perceptions. PMID:28686644

The Longitudinal Impact of Parent Distress and Behavior on Functional Outcomes Among Youth With Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Chow, Erika T; Otis, John D; Simons, Laura E

2016-06-01

Accumulating evidence supports the concurrent association between parent distress and behavior and child functioning in the context of chronic pain, with existing longitudinal studies limited to a pediatric surgical context that identify parent catastrophizing as influential. In this study, we examined how parent factors assessed at a multidisciplinary pediatric pain clinic evaluation affect child psychological and functional outcomes over time. A cohort of 195 patients with chronic pain (ages 8-17 years) and their parents who presented for a multidisciplinary evaluation completed measures at baseline and at 4-month follow-up. Patients completed measures of pain catastrophizing, pain-related fear and avoidance, generalized anxiety, depressive symptoms, and functional disability. Parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing, pain-related fear and avoidance, and protective responses to child pain. Parent-reported child school functioning was also collected. Parent distress and behavior was concurrently associated with child distress and functioning at evaluation. After controlling for baseline child functioning, baseline parent avoidance and protective behavior emerged as significant predictors of child functioning at 4-month follow-up. Parent distress and behavior influence child distress and functioning over time and these findings identify key parent domains to target in the context of a child's pain treatment. Parent behavior, specifically avoidance and protective responses, influence child distress and functioning over time. Child pain treatment interventions should include influential parent factors to ensure successful outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Returning to work following low back pain: towards a model of individual psychosocial factors.

PubMed

Besen, Elyssa; Young, Amanda E; Shaw, William S

2015-03-01

The aim of this paper is to develop and test a model of direct and indirect relationships among individual psychosocial predictors of return-to-work (RTW) outcomes following the onset of low back pain (LBP). We utilize secondary analysis of a larger study of adults seeking treatment for work-related LBP with recent onset. In total, 241 participants who completed a baseline survey, a short follow-up survey, and a longer follow-up survey after 3 months were included in our analyses. The participants were required to have LBP with onset of less than 14 days, be 18 years or older, and be fluent in English or Spanish. The analyses utilized structural equation models to test the direct and indirect relationships among the variables and RTW outcomes at 3 months. Our results indicated a good fit for our model (χ2 = 69.59, df = 45, p < .05; RMSEA = .05; CFI = .95; WRMR = .61). Pain, catastrophizing, fear-avoidance beliefs, organizational support, and RTW confidence were all found to have indirect relationships with the outcomes. RTW confidence and RTW expectations were found to have direct relationships with the outcomes. The process of returning to work after an episode of LBP is a complex process involving many interrelated factors. Understanding the relationships among critical individual factors in the RTW process may be important for the treatment and rehabilitation of those with LBP. Results suggest that if injured workers are struggling with fear avoidance, pain catastrophizing and confidence issues, they might benefit from the application of cognitive behavioral therapy techniques.

Psychological Factors in Chronic Pelvic Pain in Women: Relevance and Application of the Fear-Avoidance Model of Pain

PubMed Central

Bishop, Mark D.

2011-01-01

Chronic pelvic pain in women is a debilitating, costly condition often treated by physical therapists. The etiology of this condition is multifactorial and poorly understood, given the complex interplay of muscles, bones, and soft tissue that comprise the pelvis. There are few guidelines directing treatment interventions for this condition. In the last decade, several investigators have highlighted the role of psychological variables in conditions such as vulvodynia and painful bladder syndrome. Pain-related fear is the focus of the fear-avoidance model (FAM) of pain, which theorizes that some people are more likely to develop and maintain pain after an injury because of their emotional and behavioral responses to pain. The FAM groups people into 2 classes on the basis of how they respond to pain: people who have low fear, confront pain, and recover from injury and people who catastrophize pain—a response that leads to avoidance/escape behaviors, disuse, and disability. Given the presence of pain-related cognitions in women with chronic pelvic pain, including hypervigilance, catastrophizing, and anxiety, research directed toward the application of the FAM to guide therapeutic interventions is warranted. Isolated segments of the FAM have been studied to theorize why traditional approaches (ie, medications and surgery) may not lead to successful outcomes. However, the explicit application of the FAM to guide physical therapy interventions for women with chronic pelvic pain is not routine. Integrating the FAM might direct physical therapists' clinical decision making on the basis of the pain-related cognitions and behaviors of patients. The aims of this article are to provide information about the FAM of musculoskeletal pain and to provide evidence for the relevance of the FAM to chronic pelvic pain in women. PMID:21835893

Towards a Fail-Safe Air Force Culture: Creating a Resilient Future While Avoiding Past Mistakes

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-16

for either preventing catastrophic failures or in the event they occur. The Air Force Safety process often uses the ― Swiss Cheese ‖ model to...evaluate accidents. The image of holes in the protective cheese layers (proactive and reactive measures) lining up in such a way as to allow an accident is... cheese . More importantly, however, a HRO‘s focus is on ―the process of the slices lining up as each moment where one hole aligns with another

Two models for identification and predicting behaviour of an induction motor system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Chien-Hsun

2018-01-01

System identification or modelling is the process of building mathematical models of dynamical systems based on the available input and output data from the systems. This paper introduces system identification by using ARX (Auto Regressive with eXogeneous input) and ARMAX (Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogeneous input) models. Through the identified system model, the predicted output could be compared with the measured one to help prevent the motor faults from developing into a catastrophic machine failure and avoid unnecessary costs and delays caused by the need to carry out unscheduled repairs. The induction motor system is illustrated as an example. Numerical and experimental results are shown for the identified induction motor system.

Flaw-induced plastic-flow dynamics in bulk metallic glasses under tension

PubMed Central

Chen, S. H.; Yue, T. M.; Tsui, C. P.; Chan, K. C.

2016-01-01

Inheriting amorphous atomic structures without crystalline lattices, bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) are known to have superior mechanical properties, such as high strength approaching the ideal value, but are susceptible to catastrophic failures. Understanding the plastic-flow dynamics of BMGs is important for achieving stable plastic flow in order to avoid catastrophic failures, especially under tension, where almost all BMGs demonstrate limited plastic flow with catastrophic failure. Previous findings have shown that the plastic flow of BMGs displays critical dynamics under compression tests, however, the plastic-flow dynamics under tension are still unknown. Here we report that power-law critical dynamics can also be achieved in the plastic flow of tensile BMGs by introducing flaws. Differing from the plastic flow under compression, the flaw-induced plastic flow under tension shows an upward trend in the amplitudes of the load drops with time, resulting in a stable plastic-flow stage with a power-law distribution of the load drop. We found that the flaw-induced plastic flow resulted from the stress gradients around the notch roots, and the stable plastic-flow stage increased with the increase of the stress concentration factor ahead of the notch root. The findings are potentially useful for predicting and avoiding the catastrophic failures in tensile BMGs by tailoring the complex stress fields in practical structural-applications. PMID:27779221

The health, poverty, and financial consequences of a cigarette price increase among 500 million male smokers in 13 middle income countries: compartmental model study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the impact of a 50% increase in market prices of cigarettes on health, poverty, and financial protection. Design Compartmental model study. Setting 13 middle income countries, totalling two billion men. Participants 500 million male smokers. Main outcome measures Life years gained, averted treatment costs, number of men avoiding catastrophic healthcare expenditures and poverty, and additional tax revenue by income group. Results A 50% increase in cigarette prices would lead to about 450 million years of life gained across the 13 countries from smoking cessation, with half of these in China. Across all countries, men in the bottom income group (poorest 20% of the population) would gain 6.7 times more life years than men in the top income group (richest 20% of the population; 155 v 23 million). The average life years gained from cessation for each smoker in the bottom income group was 5.1 times that of the top group (1.46 v 0.23 years). Of the $157bn (£113bn; €127bn) in averted treatment costs, the bottom income group would avert 4.6 times more costs than the top income group ($46bn v $10bn). About 15.5 million men would avoid catastrophic health expenditures in a subset of seven countries without universal health coverage. As result, 8.8 million men, half of them in the bottom income group, would avoid falling below the World Bank definition of extreme poverty. These 8.8 million men constitute 2.4% of people living in extreme poverty in these countries. In contrast, the top income group would pay twice as much as the bottom income group of the $122bn additional tax collected. Overall, the bottom income group would get 31% of the life years saved and 29% each of the averted disease costs and averted catastrophic health expenditures, while paying only 10% of the additional taxes. Conclusions Higher prices of cigarettes provide more health and financial gains to the poorest 20% than to the richest 20% of the population. Higher excise taxes support the targets of the sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases and poverty, and provides financial protection against illness. PMID:29643096

[Fear and preoperative anxiety behaviour and pain intensity perceived after knee arthroscopy].

PubMed

Anguita-Palacios, M Carmen; Talayero-San-Miguel, Marta; Herrero-Cereceda, Salomé; Martín-Cadenas, Mar; Pardo-Cuevas, Pilar; Gil-Martínez, Alfonso

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the short-term (24hours) association between postoperative pain and preoperative psychological variables (anxiety, pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia) in a sample of knee arthroscopy ambulatory surgery. Observational cross-sectional study, conducted with 40 adult subjects who underwent knee arthroscopy in the surgical area of Cantoblanco Hospital (Hospital Universitario La Paz) in Madrid. The fear-avoidance beliefs and anxiety were assessed using validated questionnaires of pain catastrophizing, kinesiophobia and anxiety. Pre and post-surgical pain and perceived disability were evaluated by the Verbal Numeric Scale. Mean age of the sample (22 men and 18 women) was 52.85±14.21 without significant differences between gender. No statistically significant data for the association between variables of kinesiofobia, anxiety and pain catastrophizing and the intensity of perceived pain by the postoperative knee arthroscopy patient were found. Length of surgery in our study has a correlation with the immediate post-surgical pain (r=0.468; P=.002) and there is a relationship between age and pain intensity at 24hours (r=-0.329; P=.038), and between age and perceived disability (r=-0.314; P=.049). An association between catastrophizing and kinesiophobia scales (r=0.337; P=.033) is obtained likewise. In conclusion, preoperative fear-avoidance beliefs like pain anxiety or pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia were not associated with acute postoperative pain in our study. Analyses of secondary pain related outcomes, however, indicated that reduced time of surgery may contribute to enhance clinical postoperative pain. If confirmed and replicated in larger samples, this may potentially enable clinicians to improve postoperative pain management in future patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Relationship between Personality Traits and Endogenous Analgesia: The Role of Harm Avoidance.

PubMed

Nahman-Averbuch, Hadas; Yarnitsky, David; Sprecher, Elliot; Granovsky, Yelena; Granot, Michal

2016-01-01

Whether psychological factors such as anxiety and pain catastrophizing levels influence the expression of endogenous analgesia in general and, more specifically, the conditioned pain modulation (CPM) response is still under debate. It may be assumed that other psychological characteristics also play a role in the CPM response. The neurotransmitters serotonin, dopamine, and norepinephrine are involved both in CPM, as well as personality traits such as harm avoidance (HA), novelty seeking (NS), and reward dependence (RD), which can be obtained by the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ). However, the associations between these traits (HA, NS, and RD) with endogenous analgesia revealed by CPM have not yet been explored. Healthy middle-age subjects (n = 28) completed the TPQ, Spielberger's State Anxiety Inventory, and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and were assessed for CPM paradigms using thermal phasic temporal summation as the "test stimulus" and hand immersion into hot water bath (CPM water) or contact heat (CPM contact) for "conditioning stimulus." Higher levels of HA were associated with less-efficient CPM responses obtained by both paradigms: CPM water (r = 0.418, P = 0.027) and CPM contact (r = 0.374, P = 0.050). However, NS and RD were not associated with the other measurements. No significant relationship was observed between state anxiety and pain catastrophizing levels and the CPM responses. The relationship between the capacity of endogenous analgesia and the tendency to avoid aversive experience can be explained by mutual mechanisms involving similar neurotransmitters or brain areas. These findings illuminate the key role of harm avoidance obtained by the TPQ in determining the characteristics of pain modulation profile. © 2014 World Institute of Pain.

Dynamic Effects of Performance-Avoidance Goal Orientation on Student Achievement in Language and Mathematics.

PubMed

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Gonida, Sofia-Eleftheria N

2018-07-01

The present study used achievement goal theory (AGT) as a theoretical framework and examined the role of mastery and performance goals, both performance-approach and performance-avoidance, on school achieve-ment within the nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) perspective. A series of cusp catastrophe models were applied on students' achievement in a number of school subjects, such as mathematics and language for elementary school and algebra, geometry, ancient and modern Greek language for high school, using achievement goal orientations as control variables. The participants (N=224) were students attending fifth and eighth grade (aged 11 and 14, respectively) in public schools located in northern Greece. Cusp analysis based on the probability density function was carried out by two procedures, the maximum likelihood and the least squares. The results showed that performance-approach goals had no linear effect on achievement, while the cusp models implementing mastery goals as the asymmetry factor and performance-avoidance as the bifurcation, proved superior to their linear alternatives. The results of the study based on NDS support the multiple goal perspective within AGT. Theoretical issues, educational implications and future directions are discussed.

The Cusp Catastrophe Model as Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Mixture Structural Equation Models

PubMed Central

Chow, Sy-Miin; Witkiewitz, Katie; Grasman, Raoul P. P. P.; Maisto, Stephen A.

2015-01-01

Catastrophe theory (Thom, 1972, 1993) is the study of the many ways in which continuous changes in a system’s parameters can result in discontinuous changes in one or several outcome variables of interest. Catastrophe theory–inspired models have been used to represent a variety of change phenomena in the realm of social and behavioral sciences. Despite their promise, widespread applications of catastrophe models have been impeded, in part, by difficulties in performing model fitting and model comparison procedures. We propose a new modeling framework for testing one kind of catastrophe model — the cusp catastrophe model — as a mixture structural equation model (MSEM) when cross-sectional data are available; or alternatively, as an MSEM with regime-switching (MSEM-RS) when longitudinal panel data are available. The proposed models and the advantages offered by this alternative modeling framework are illustrated using two empirical examples and a simulation study. PMID:25822209

Self-compassion, pain, and breaking a social contract.

PubMed

Purdie, Fiona; Morley, Stephen

2015-11-01

Self-compassion is the ability to respond to one's failures, shortcomings, and difficulties with kindness and openness rather than criticism. This study, which might be regarded as a proof-of-concept study, aimed to establish whether self-compassion is associated with expected emotional responses and the likelihood of responding with problem solving, support seeking, distraction, avoidance, rumination, or catastrophizing to unpleasant self-relevant events occurring in 3 social contexts. Sixty chronic pain patients were presented with 6 vignettes describing scenes in which the principal actor transgressed a social contract with negative interpersonal consequences. Vignettes represented 2 dimensions: (1) whether pain or a nonpain factor interrupted the fulfillment of the contract and (2) variation in the social setting (work, peer, and family). The Self-Compassion Scale was the covariate in the analysis. Higher levels of self-compassion were associated with significantly lower negative affect and lower reported likelihood of avoidance, catastrophizing, and rumination. Self-compassion did not interact with pain vs nonpain factor. Work-related vignettes were rated as more emotional and more likely to be associated with avoidance, catastrophizing, and rumination and less likelihood of problem solving. The findings suggest that self-compassion warrants further investigation in the chronic pain population both regarding the extent of its influence as a trait and in terms of the potential to enhance chronic pain patients' ability to be self-compassionate, with a view to its therapeutic utility in enhancing psychological well-being and adjustment. Limitations regarding the possible criterion contamination and the generalizability of vignette studies are discussed.

[Which route leads from chronic back pain to depression? A path analysis on direct and indirect effects using the cognitive mediators catastrophizing and helplessness/hopelessness in a general population sample].

PubMed

Fahland, R A; Kohlmann, T; Hasenbring, M; Feng, Y-S; Schmidt, C O

2012-12-01

Chronic pain and depression are highly comorbid; however, the longitudinal link is only partially understood. This study examined direct and indirect effects of chronic back pain on depression using path analysis in a general population sample, focussing on cognitive mediator variables. Analyses are based on 413 participants (aged 18-75 years) in a population-based postal survey on back pain who reported chronic back pain at baseline. Follow-up data were collected after 1 year. Depression was measured with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Fear-avoidance-beliefs (FABQ), catastrophizing and helplessness/hopelessness (KRSS) were considered as cognitive mediators. Data were analyzed using path analysis. Chronic back pain had no direct effect on depression at follow-up when controlling for cognitive mediators. A mediating effect emerged for helplessness/hopelessness but not for catastrophizing or fear-avoidance beliefs. These results support the cognitive mediation hypothesis which assumes that psychological variables mediate the association between pain and depression. The importance of helplessness/hopelessness is of relevance for the treatment of patients with chronic back pain.

Understanding the relationship between attachment style, pain appraisal and illness behavior in women.

PubMed

Martínez, M Pilar; Miró, Elena; Sánchez, Ana I; Mundo, Antonio; Martínez, Elena

2012-02-01

Insecure attachment has been hypothesized to be an important factor for understanding the experience of pain. Considering the Attachment-Diathesis Model of Chronic Pain developed by Meredith, Ownsworth, and Strong (2008), this cross-sectional study examines the relationship between attachment style, pain appraisal, and illness behavior. Two hundred healthy women recruited from community contexts completed a battery of self-report measures including the Short-form McGill Pain Questionnaire, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale-20, Pain Vigilance and Awareness Questionnaire, Illness Attitude Scales, Beck Anxiety Inventory, Beck Depression Inventory, and the Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire-Revised. The results showed that attachment anxiety was significantly correlated with pain catastrophizing, pain-related fear, depression, and illness behavior. However, attachment anxiety and avoidance were not associated with pain intensity. Attachment anxiety moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and illness behavior, and between pain hypervigilance and illness behavior. Pain catastrophizing and pain-related fear partially mediated the effect of attachment anxiety on illness behavior. The findings highlight potential contributions of attachment style and pain appraisal for explaining illness behavior. This study supports earlier reports and suggests the usefulness of assessing attachment style for early identification of people who might exhibit a high risk of dysfunctional responses to pain. Our findings also suggest that increasing people's insight about their attachment style and modifying some associated dysfunctional responses may be important in the treatment of chronic pain. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2011 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

A processing architecture for associative short-term memory in electronic noses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pioggia, G.; Ferro, M.; Di Francesco, F.; DeRossi, D.

2006-11-01

Electronic nose (e-nose) architectures usually consist of several modules that process various tasks such as control, data acquisition, data filtering, feature selection and pattern analysis. Heterogeneous techniques derived from chemometrics, neural networks, and fuzzy rules used to implement such tasks may lead to issues concerning module interconnection and cooperation. Moreover, a new learning phase is mandatory once new measurements have been added to the dataset, thus causing changes in the previously derived model. Consequently, if a loss in the previous learning occurs (catastrophic interference), real-time applications of e-noses are limited. To overcome these problems this paper presents an architecture for dynamic and efficient management of multi-transducer data processing techniques and for saving an associative short-term memory of the previously learned model. The architecture implements an artificial model of a hippocampus-based working memory, enabling the system to be ready for real-time applications. Starting from the base models available in the architecture core, dedicated models for neurons, maps and connections were tailored to an artificial olfactory system devoted to analysing olive oil. In order to verify the ability of the processing architecture in associative and short-term memory, a paired-associate learning test was applied. The avoidance of catastrophic interference was observed.

Reconceptualizing emetophobia: a cognitive-behavioral formulation and research agenda.

PubMed

Boschen, Mark J

2007-01-01

Fear of vomiting (emetophobia) is a poorly understood anxiety disorder, with little research published into its conceptualization or treatment. The current article uses established cognitive and behavioral models of other anxiety disorders as a basis from which to propose a detailed model of emetophobia. The model proposes that emetophobia results from a constellation of factors including a general anxiety-vulnerability factor, a tendency to somatize anxiety as gastrointestinal distress, a tendency to catastrophically misappraise nausea and other gastrointestinal symptoms, hypervigilance to gastrointestinal cues, beliefs about the unacceptability of vomiting, negatively reinforced avoidance behavior, and selective confirmation biases. A formulation-based treatment package for emetophobia is outlined, including arousal management skills, distraction/attention training, exposure and cognitive restructuring.

A prospective 2-year examination of cognitive and behavioral correlates of provoked vestibulodynia outcomes.

PubMed

Davis, Seth N P; Bergeron, Sophie; Bois, Katy; Sadikaj, Gentiana; Binik, Yitzchak M; Steben, Marc

2015-04-01

Provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) is a common genital pain disorder in women that is associated with sexual dysfunction and lowered sexual satisfaction. A potentially applicable cognitive-behavioral model of chronic pain and disability is the fear-avoidance model (FAM) of pain. The FAM posits that cognitive variables, such as pain catastrophizing, fear, and anxiety lead to avoidance of pain-provoking behaviors (eg, intercourse), resulting in continued pain and disability. Although some of the FAM variables have been shown to be associated with PVD pain and sexuality outcomes, the model as a whole has never been tested in this population. An additional protective factor, pain self-efficacy (SE), is also associated with PVD, but has not been tested within the FAM model. Using a 2-year longitudinal design, we examine (1) whether initial levels (T1) of the independent FAM variables and pain SE were associated with changes in pain, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction over the 2-year time period; (2) the prospective contribution of changes in cognitive-affective (FAM) variables to changes in pain, and sexuality outcomes; and (3) whether these were mediated by behavioral change (avoidance of intercourse). A sample of 222 women with PVD completed self-report measures of FAM variables, SE, pain, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction at time 1 and at a 2-year follow-up. Structural equation modeling with Latent Difference Scores was used to examine changes and to examine mediation between variables. Questionnaires included the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, McGill Pain Questionnaire, Trait Anxiety Inventory, Pain Self-Efficacy Scale, and Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction, Female Sexual Function Index. Participants who reported higher SE at T1 reported greater declines in pain, greater increases in sexual satisfaction, and greater declines in sexual function over the 2 time points. The overall change model did not support the FAM using negative cognitive-affective variables. Only increases in pain SE were associated with reductions in pain intensity. The relationship between changes in SE and changes in pain was partially mediated through changes in avoidance (more intercourse attempts). The same pattern of results was found for changes in sexual satisfaction as the outcome, and a partial mediation effect was found. There were no significant predictors of changes in sexual function other than T1 SE. Changes in both cognitive and behavioral variables were significantly associated with improved pain and sexual satisfaction outcomes. However, it was the positive changes in SE that better predicted changes in avoidance behavior, pain, and sexual satisfaction. Cognitive-behavior therapy is often focused on changing negative pain-related cognitions to reduce avoidance and pain, but the present results demonstrate the potential importance of bolstering positive self-beliefs as well. Indeed, before engaging in exposure therapies, SE beliefs should be assessed and potentially targeted to improve adherence to exposure strategies.

Landslide hazard rating matrix and database : vol. 1 of 2.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

The Office of Geotechnical Engineering (OGE) of the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) : recognizes the need to develop a strategy to provide timely preventive maintenance to avoid on-set of : large or catastrophic slope failures. Furthermore, ...

Making Better Re/Insurance Underwriting and Capital Management Decisions with Public-Private-Academic Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, G.; Gunasekera, R.; Werner, A.; Galy, H.

2012-04-01

Similar to 2001, 2004, and 2005, 2011 was another year of unexpected international catastrophe events, in which insured losses were more than twice the expected long-term annual average catastrophe losses of USD 30 to 40bn. Key catastrophe events that significantly contributed these losses included the Mw 9.0 Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, the Jan. 2011 floods in Queensland, the October 2011 floods in Thailand, the Mw 6.1 Christchurch earthquake and Convective system (Tornado) in United States. However, despite considerable progress in catastrophe modelling, the advent of global catastrophe models, increasing risk model coverage and skill in the detailed modelling, the above mentioned events were not satisfactorily modelled by the current mainstream Re/Insurance catastrophe models. This presentation therefore address problems in models and incomplete understanding identified from recent catastrophic events by considering: i) the current modelling environment, and ii) how the current processes could be improved via: a) the understanding of risk within science networks such as the Willis Research Network, and b) the integration of risk model results from available insurance catastrophe models and tools. This presentation aims to highlight the needed improvements in decision making and market practices, thereby advancing the current management of risk in the Re/Insurance industry. This also increases the need for better integration of Public-Private-Academic partnerships and tools to provide better estimates of not only financial loss but also humanitarian and infrastructural losses as well.

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

PubMed

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

2012-01-01

In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

Development and Validation of the Behavioral Avoidance Test-Back Pain (BAT-Back) for Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Holzapfel, Sebastian; Riecke, Jenny; Rief, Winfried; Schneider, Jessica; Glombiewski, Julia A

2016-11-01

Pain-related fear and avoidance of physical activities are central elements of the fear-avoidance model of musculoskeletal pain. Pain-related fear has typically been measured by self-report instruments. In this study, we developed and validated a Behavioral Avoidance Test (BAT) for chronic low back pain (CLBP) patients with the aim of assessing pain-related avoidance behavior by direct observation. The BAT-Back was administered to a group of CLBP patients (N=97) and pain-free controls (N=31). Furthermore, pain, pain-related fear, disability, catastrophizing, and avoidance behavior were measured using self-report instruments. Reliability was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficient and Cronbach α. Validity was assessed by examining correlation and regression analysis. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the BAT-Back avoidance score was r=0.76. Internal consistency was α=0.95. CLBP patients and controls differed significantly on BAT-Back avoidance scores as well as self-report measures. BAT-Back avoidance scores were significantly correlated with scores on each of the self-report measures (rs=0.27 to 0.54). They were not significantly correlated with general anxiety and depression, age, body mass index, and pain duration. The BAT-Back avoidance score was able to capture unique variance in disability after controlling for other variables (eg, pain intensity and pain-related fear). Results indicate that the BAT-Back is a reliable and valid measure of pain-related avoidance behavior. It may be useful for clinicians in tailoring treatments for chronic pain as well as an outcome measure for exposure treatments.

INCORPORATING CATASTROPHES INTO INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT: SCIENCE, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes,...

Catastrophe Theory in Higher Education Research. AIR Forum 1981 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staman, E. Michael

The applicability of catastrophe theory to research in higher education is considered, with several problems that typically appear in the literature presented in a theoretical framework. A catastrophe model is attempted for each. The nature of mathematical modeling and the relationship between modeling continuous systems and discontinuous systems…

Disaster averted: Community resilience in the face of a catastrophic flood.

PubMed

O'Neill, H Katherine; McLean, Andrew J; Kalis, Renetta; Shultz, James M

2016-01-01

In the spring of 2009, the Fargo, North Dakota, metropolitan area had 5 days to lay millions of sandbags to avoid devastation from record flooding of the Red River of the North. The community was able to successfully mitigate the flooding and escape potentially catastrophic economic, physical, and mental health consequences. We hypothesized that Fargo flood protection efforts reflected the community resilience factors proposed by Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, et al. (2008): citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, effective organizational linkages, ongoing psychosocial support, and strong civic leadership in the face of rapidly changing circumstances. This community case report utilizes an extensive review of available sources, including news reports, government documents, research articles, and personal communication. Results demonstrate that Fargo's response to the threat of catastrophic flooding was consistent with Norris et al.'s (2008) factors of community resilience. Furthermore, success in 2009 carried over into future flood prevention and response efforts, as well as a structured approach to building psychological resilience. This case study contributes to the literature on community resilience by describing a community's successful efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic disaster.

Disaster averted: Community resilience in the face of a catastrophic flood

PubMed Central

O'Neill, H. Katherine; McLean, Andrew J.; Kalis, Renetta; Shultz, James M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT In the spring of 2009, the Fargo, North Dakota, metropolitan area had 5 days to lay millions of sandbags to avoid devastation from record flooding of the Red River of the North. The community was able to successfully mitigate the flooding and escape potentially catastrophic economic, physical, and mental health consequences. We hypothesized that Fargo flood protection efforts reflected the community resilience factors proposed by Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, et al. (2008): citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, effective organizational linkages, ongoing psychosocial support, and strong civic leadership in the face of rapidly changing circumstances. This community case report utilizes an extensive review of available sources, including news reports, government documents, research articles, and personal communication. Results demonstrate that Fargo's response to the threat of catastrophic flooding was consistent with Norris et al.'s (2008) factors of community resilience. Furthermore, success in 2009 carried over into future flood prevention and response efforts, as well as a structured approach to building psychological resilience. This case study contributes to the literature on community resilience by describing a community's successful efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic disaster. PMID:28229016

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Turkish version of the pain catastrophizing scale among patients with ankylosing spondylitis

PubMed Central

İlçin, Nursen; Gürpınar, Barış; Bayraktar, Deniz; Savcı, Sema; Çetin, Pınar; Sarı, İsmail; Akkoç, Nurullah

2016-01-01

[Purpose] This study describes the cultural adaptation, validation, and reliability of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. [Methods] The validity of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was assessed by evaluating data quality (missing data and floor and ceiling effects), principal components analysis, internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha), and construct validity (Spearman’s rho). Reproducibility analyses included standard measurement error, minimum detectable change, limits of agreement, and intraclass correlation coefficients. [Results] Sixty-four adult patients with ankylosing spondylitis with a mean age of 42.2 years completed the study. Factor analysis revealed that all questionnaire items could be grouped into two factors. Excellent internal consistency was found, with a Chronbach’s alpha value of 0.95. Reliability analyses showed an intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) of 0.96 for the total score. There was a low correlation coefficient between the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and body mass index, pain levels at rest and during activity, health-related quality of life, and fear and avoidance behaviors. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicate that the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale is a valid and reliable clinical and research tool for patients with ankylosing spondylitis. PMID:26957778

Comparison Between Chronic Migraine and Temporomandibular Disorders in Pain-Related Disability and Fear-Avoidance Behaviors.

PubMed

Gil-Martínez, Alfonso; Navarro-Fernández, Gonzalo; Mangas-Guijarro, María Ángeles; Lara-Lara, Manuel; López-López, Almudena; Fernández-Carnero, Josué; La Touche, Roy

2017-11-01

To compare patients with chronic migraine (CM) and chronic temporomandibular disorders (TMD) on disability, pain, and fear avoidance factors and to associate these variables within groups. Descriptive, cross-sectional study. A neurology department and a temporomandibular disorders consult in a tertiary care center. A total of 50 patients with CM and 51 patients with chronic TMD, classified by international criteria classifications. The variables evaluated included pain intensity (visual analog scale [VAS]), neck disability (NDI), craniofacial pain and disability (CF-PDI), headache impact (HIT-6), pain catastrophizing (PCS), and kinesiophobia (TSK-11). Statistically significant differences were found between the CM group and the chronic TMD group in CF-PDI (P < 0.001), PCS (P = 0.03), and HIT-6 (P < 0.001); however, there were no differences between the CM group and the VAS, NDI, and TSK-11 groups (P > 0.05). For the chronic TMD group, the combination of NDI and TSK-11 was a significant covariate model of CF-PDI (adjusted R2 = 0.34). In the CM group, the regression model showed that NDI was a significant predictive factor for HIT-6 (adjusted R2 = 0.19). Differences between the CM group and the chronic TMD group were found in craniofacial pain and disability, pain catastrophizing, and headache impact, but they were similar for pain intensity, neck disability, and kinesiophobia. Neck disability and kinesiophobia were covariates of craniofacial pain and disability (34% of variance) for chronic TMD. In the CM group, neck disability was a predictive factor for headache impact (19.3% of variance). © 2017 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Life prediction technologies for aeronautical propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgaw, Michael A.

1990-01-01

Fatigue and fracture problems continue to occur in aeronautical gas turbine engines. Components whose useful life is limited by these failure modes include turbine hot-section blades, vanes, and disks. Safety considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that noncatastrophic failures occur as infrequently as possible. Therefore, the decision in design is making the tradeoff between engine performance and durability. LeRC has contributed to the aeropropulsion industry in the area of life prediction technology for over 30 years, developing creep and fatigue life prediction methodologies for hot-section materials. At the present time, emphasis is being placed on the development of methods capable of handling both thermal and mechanical fatigue under severe environments. Recent accomplishments include the development of more accurate creep-fatigue life prediction methods such as the total strain version of LeRC's strain-range partitioning (SRP) and the HOST-developed cyclic damage accumulation (CDA) model. Other examples include the development of a more accurate cumulative fatigue damage rule - the double damage curve approach (DDCA), which provides greatly improved accuracy in comparison with usual cumulative fatigue design rules. Other accomplishments in the area of high-temperature fatigue crack growth may also be mentioned. Finally, we are looking to the future and are beginning to do research on the advanced methods which will be required for development of advanced materials and propulsion systems over the next 10-20 years.

Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parthum, Bryan M.; Pindilli, Emily J.; Hogan, Dianna

2017-01-01

 The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be \\$3.69 million (2015 USD), or \\$306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires.

Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in The Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Parthum, Bryan; Pindilli, Emily; Hogan, Dianna

2017-12-01

The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be $3.69 million (2015 USD), or $306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Identifying patient fear-avoidance beliefs by physical therapists managing patients with low back pain.

PubMed

Calley, Darren Q; Jackson, Steven; Collins, Heather; George, Steven Z

2010-12-01

Cross-sectional. To evaluate the accuracy with which physical therapists identify fear-avoidance beliefs in patients with low back pain by comparing therapist ratings of perceived patient fear-avoidance to the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire (FABQ), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia 11-item (TSK-11), and Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). To compare the concurrent validity of therapist ratings of perceived patient fear-avoidance and a 2-item questionnaire on fear of physical activity and harm, with clinical measures of fear-avoidance (FABQ, TSK-11, PCS), pain intensity as assessed with a numeric pain rating scale (NPRS), and disability as assessed with the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODQ). The need to consider psychosocial factors for identifying patients at risk for disability and chronic low back pain has been well documented. Yet the ability of physical therapists to identify fear-avoidance beliefs using direct observation has not been studied. Eight physical therapists and 80 patients with low back pain from 3 physical therapy clinics participated in the study. Patients completed the FABQ, TSK-11, PCS, ODQ, NPRS, and a dichotomous 2-item fear-avoidance screening questionnaire. Following the initial evaluation, physical therapists rated perceived patient fear-avoidance on a 0-to-10 scale and recorded 2 influences on their ratings. Spearman correlation and independent t tests determined the level of association of therapist 0-to-10 ratings and 2-item screening with fear-avoidance and clinical measures. Therapist ratings of perceived patient fear-avoidance had fair to moderate interrater reliability (ICC2,1 = 0.663). Therapist ratings did not strongly correlate with FABQ or TSK-11 scores. Instead, they unexpectedly had stronger associations with ODQ and PCS scores. Both 2-item screening questions were associated with FABQ-physical activity scores, while the fear of physical activity question was also associated with FABQ-work, TSK-11, PCS, and ODQ scores. Therapists' ratings of perceived patient fear-avoidance were not associated with self-reported fear-avoidance scores, showing a potential disconnect between therapist judgments and commonly used fear-avoidance measures. Instead, therapist ratings had small but statistically significant correlations with pain catastrophizing and disability, findings that may support therapists' inability to discriminate fear-avoidance from these other factors. The 2-item screening questions based on fear of physical activity and harm showed potential to identify elevated FABQ physical activity scores. Differential diagnosis, level 2b.

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Stenseth, Nils C.

2009-01-01

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future. PMID:19706557

The Communal Coping Model of Pain Catastrophizing in Daily Life: A Within-Couples Daily Diary Study

PubMed Central

Burns, John W.; Gerhart, James I.; Post, Kristina M.; Smith, David A.; Porter, Laura S.; Schuster, Erik; Buvanendran, Asokumar; Fras, Anne Marie; Keefe, Francis J.

2015-01-01

The Communal Coping Model (CCM) characterizes pain catastrophizing as a coping tactic whereby pain expression elicits assistance and empathic responses from others. Married couples (N = 105 couples; one spouse with chronic low back pain) completed electronic daily diary assessments 5 times/day for 14 days. On these diaries, patients reported pain catastrophizing, pain, function, and perceived spouse support, criticism and hostility. Non-patient spouses reported on their support, criticism, and hostility directed toward patients, as well as their observations of patient pain and pain behaviors. Hierarchical linear modeling tested concurrent and lagged (3 hours later) relationships. Principal findings included: a) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were positively associated with spouse reports of patient pain behavior in concurrent and lagged analyses; b) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were positively associated with patient perceptions of spouse support, criticism, and hostility in concurrent analyses; c) within-person increases in pain catastrophizing were negatively associated with spouse reports of criticism and hostility in lagged analyses. Spouses reported patient behaviors that were tied to elevated pain catastrophizing, and spouses changed their behavior during and following elevated pain catastrophizing episodes. Pain catastrophizing may affect the interpersonal environment of patients and spouses in ways consistent with the CCM. PMID:26320945

Energy for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cook, Emma

2011-01-01

Increased energy efficiency and reduced reliance on fossil fuels are both essential if people are to have any chance of avoiding escalating energy prices and the grim reality of catastrophic climate change. By increasing the diversity of energy sources people can also achieve increased security, reducing their dependence on imports. As…

Domino effects within a chemical cluster: a game-theoretical modeling approach by using Nash-equilibrium.

PubMed

Reniers, Genserik; Dullaert, Wout; Karel, Soudan

2009-08-15

Every company situated within a chemical cluster faces domino effect risks, whose magnitude depends on every company's own risk management strategies and on those of all others. Preventing domino effects is therefore very important to avoid catastrophes in the chemical process industry. Given that chemical companies are interlinked by domino effect accident links, there is some likelihood that even if certain companies fully invest in domino effects prevention measures, they can nonetheless experience an external domino effect caused by an accident which occurred in another chemical enterprise of the cluster. In this article a game-theoretic approach to interpret and model behaviour of chemical plants within chemical clusters while negotiating and deciding on domino effects prevention investments is employed.

Catastrophic flood and forest cover change in the Huong river basin, central Viet Nam: a gap between common perceptions and facts.

PubMed

Tran, Phong; Marincioni, Fausto; Shaw, Rajib

2010-11-01

Recent catastrophic floods in Viet Nam have been increasingly linked to land use and forest cover change in the uplands. Despite the doubts that many scientists have expressed on such nexus, this common view prompted both positive forest protection/reforestation programs and often-unwarranted blame on upland communities for their forest management practices. This study discusses the disparity between public perceptions and scientific evidences relating the causes of catastrophic floods. The former was drawn on the results of a questionnaire and focus groups discussions with key informants of different mountainous communities, whereas the latter was based on GIS and remote sensing analysis of land cover change, including a statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data of the Huong river basin in Viet Nam. Results indicate that there is a gap between the common beliefs and the actual relationship between the forest cover change and catastrophic floods. Undeniably, the studied areas showed significant changes in land cover over the period 1989-2008, yet, 71% of the variance of catastrophic flood level in the downstream areas appeared related to variance in rainfall. Evidences from this study showed that the overall increasing trends of catastrophic flooding in the Huong river basin was mainly due to climate variability and to the development of main roads and dyke infrastructures in the lowlands. Forest management policies and programs, shaped on the common assumption that forest degradation in the upland is the main cause of catastrophic flood in the downstream areas, should be reassessed to avoid unnecessary strain on upland people. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teaching about Nuclear Disarmament. Fastback 229.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, James, M.

Background information to help educators teach about nuclear disarmament is presented. There are six sections. The first section, "Nuclear Arms Education: Avoiding the Final Catastrophe," discusses the national priority of preparing for war, militarism as a value, and the mushroom cloud and spaceship earth as symbols of a global age. The second…

Catastrophic Icefall Hazard Assessment, Avoidance Procedures & Mitigations Strategies, Phase II Site-Specific Studies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-02-01

The incidence of icefall is one of the most underrepresented and likely underappreciated of all the natural hazards. Falling pieces of ice are subject to melting and sublimation, and evidence of such events may be gone in a matter of days or even hou...

An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

2018-04-01

A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

Predictors of trait dissociation and peritraumatic dissociation induced via cold pressor.

PubMed

Gómez-Pérez, Lydia; López-Martínez, Alicia Eva; Asmundson, Gordon John Glenn

2013-11-30

Understanding which factors predict individual dissociative response during stressful situations is important to clarify the nature of dissociation and the mechanisms associated to its use as a coping strategy. The present study examined (1) whether experiential avoidance (EA), anxiety sensitivity (AS), depressive symptoms, and state anxiety concurrently predicted trait dissociation (TD)-absorption, amnesia, depersonalization, and total TD scores-and laboratory induced dissociation (LID); and (2) whether TD and catastrophizing predicted LID. We also examined whether catastrophizing mediated the relationships between both AS and depressive symptoms and LID. A total of 101 female undergraduate students participated in a cold pressor task, which significantly induced dissociation. Results of hierarchical regression analyses showed that AS at Time 1 (9 months before the experimental session), as well as depressive symptoms and catastrophizing at the time of the experiment (Time 2), predicted LID at Time 2. Depressive symptoms at Time 2 predicted total TD, absorption, and amnesia scores. AS at Time 1 and depressive symptoms at Time 2 predicted depersonalization. AS, depressive symptoms, and catastrophizing seem to facilitate the use of dissociative strategies by healthy individuals, even in response to non-traumatic but discomforting stress. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

PubMed Central

García-Palacios, Azucena; Botella, Cristina; Ribera-Canudas, Maria Victoria

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation). If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women) with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator) in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy. PMID:28348506

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

PubMed

Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

2015-07-01

Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

PubMed

Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2018-05-01

When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Medium term hurricane catastrophe models: a validation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonazzi, Alessandro; Turner, Jessica; Dobbin, Alison; Wilson, Paul; Mitas, Christos; Bellone, Enrica

2013-04-01

Climate variability is a major source of uncertainty for the insurance industry underwriting hurricane risk. Catastrophe models provide their users with a stochastic set of events that expands the scope of the historical catalogue by including synthetic events that are likely to happen in a defined time-frame. The use of these catastrophe models is widespread in the insurance industry but it is only in recent years that climate variability has been explicitly accounted for. In the insurance parlance "medium term catastrophe model" refers to products that provide an adjusted view of risk that is meant to represent hurricane activity on a 1 to 5 year horizon, as opposed to long term models that integrate across the climate variability of the longest available time series of observations. In this presentation we discuss how a simple reinsurance program can be used to assess the value of medium term catastrophe models. We elaborate on similar concepts as discussed in "Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts" by Emanuel et al. (2012, WCAS) and provide an example based on 24 years of historical data of the Chicago Mercantile Hurricane Index (CHI), an insured loss proxy. Profit and loss volatility of a hypothetical primary insurer are used to score medium term models versus their long term counterpart. Results show that medium term catastrophe models could help a hypothetical primary insurer to improve their financial resiliency to varying climate conditions.

Collision warning and avoidance considerations for the Space Shuttle and Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilas, Faith; Collins, Michael F.; Kramer, Paul C.; Arndt, G. Dickey; Suddath, Jerry H.

1990-01-01

The increasing hazard of manmade debris in low earth orbit (LEO) has focused attention on the requirement for collision detection, warning and avoidance systems to be developed in order to protect manned (and unmanned) spacecraft. With the number of debris objects expected to be increasing with time, the impact hazard will also be increasing. The safety of the Space Shuttle and the Space Station Freedom from destructive or catastrophic collision resulting from the hypervelocity impact of a LEO object is of increasing concern to NASA. A number of approaches to this problem are in effect or under development. The collision avoidance procedures now in effect for the Shuttle are described, and detection and avoidance procedures presently being developed at the Johnson Space Center for the Space Station Freedom are discussed.

Targeted Therapies for Myeloma and Metastatic Bone Cancers

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

increased efficacy in the targeted microenvironment, and the ultimate opportunity to reverse catastrophic disease processes . Furthermore, targeted...concentrate the resulting nanoparticles using centrifuge concentrator tubes and we have integrated this processing step into our nanoparticle...is unaffected by this slightly altered approach. Furthermore, this modified method avoids a lengthy column separation process that diminishes the

Insurance--a dental viewpoint. Part III: Life assurance, pensions and annuities.

PubMed

Green, A G

1994-09-10

The insurance market is complex and there can be serious taxation implications in many decisions. The tax aspect may be beneficial to the dentist or it can have serious consequences. The advice of independent experts in accountancy and insurance is often vital if catastrophic pitfalls are to be avoided.

Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions: a Delphi study.

PubMed

Peters, S E; Johnston, V; Ross, M; Coppieters, M W

2017-02-01

This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts ( n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (⩾85% agreement) was achieved for 13 facilitators (high motivation to return-to-work; high self-efficacy for return-to-work and recovery; availability of modified/alternative duties; flexible return-to-work arrangements; positive coping skills; limited heavy work exertion; supportive return-to-work policies; supportive supervisor/management; no catastrophic thinking; no fear avoidance to return-to-work; no fear avoidance to pain/activity; return to meaningful work duties; high job satisfaction) and six barriers (mood disorder diagnosis; pain/symptoms at more than one musculoskeletal site; heavy upper extremity exertions at work; lack of flexible return-to-work arrangements; lack of support from supervisor/management; high level of pain catastrophizing). Future prognostic studies are required to validate these biopsychosocial factors to further improve return-to-work outcomes. V.

Avoiding polar catastrophe in the growth of polarly orientated nickel perovskite thin films by reactive oxide molecular beam epitaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. F.; Liu, Z. T.; Fan, C. C.; Yao, Q.; Xiang, P.; Zhang, K. L.; Li, M. Y.; Liu, J. S.; Shen, D. W.

2016-08-01

By means of the state-of-the-art reactive oxide molecular beam epitaxy, we synthesized (001)- and (111)-orientated polar LaNiO3 thin films. In order to avoid the interfacial reconstructions induced by polar catastrophe, screening metallic Nb-doped SrTiO3 and iso-polarity LaAlO3 substrates were chosen to achieve high-quality (001)-orientated films in a layer-by-layer growth mode. For largely polar (111)-orientated films, we showed that iso-polarity LaAlO3 (111) substrate was more suitable than Nb-doped SrTiO3. In situ reflection high-energy electron diffraction, ex situ high-resolution X-ray diffraction, and atomic force microscopy were used to characterize these films. Our results show that special attentions need to be paid to grow high-quality oxide films with polar orientations, which can prompt the explorations of all-oxide electronics and artificial interfacial engineering to pursue intriguing emergent physics like proposed interfacial superconductivity and topological phases in LaNiO3 based superlattices.

Catastrophic expenditure to pay for surgery worldwide: a modelling study.

PubMed

Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Alkire, Blake C; O'Neill, Kathleen; Meara, John G

2015-04-27

Approximately 150 million individuals worldwide face catastrophic expenditure each year from medical costs alone, and the non-medical costs of accessing care increase that number. The proportion of this expenditure related to surgery is unknown. Because the World Bank has proposed elimination of medical impoverishment by 2030, the effect of surgical conditions on financial catastrophe should be quantified so that any financial risk protection mechanisms can appropriately incorporate surgery. To estimate the global incidence of catastrophic expenditure due to surgery, we built a stochastic model. The income distribution of each country, the probability of requiring surgery, and the medical and non-medical costs faced for surgery were incorporated. Sensitivity analyses were run to test the robustness of the model. 3·7 billion people (posterior credible interval 3·2-4·2 billion) risk catastrophic expenditure if they need surgery. Each year, 81·3 million people (80·8-81·7 million) worldwide are driven to financial catastrophe-32·8 million (32·4-33·1 million) from the costs of surgery alone and 48·5 million (47·7-49·3) from associated non-medical costs. The burden of catastrophic expenditure is highest in countries of low and middle income; within any country, it falls on the poor. Estimates were sensitive to the definition of catastrophic expenditure and the costs of care. The inequitable burden distribution was robust to model assumptions. Half the global population is at risk of financial catastrophe from surgery. Each year, surgical conditions cause 81 million individuals to face catastrophic expenditure, of which less than half is attributable to medical costs. These findings highlight the need for financial risk protection for surgery in health-system design. MGS received partial funding from NIH/NCI R25CA92203. Copyright © 2015 Shrime et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2004-01-01

Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

Stationary moments, diffusion limits, and extinction times for logistic growth with random catastrophes.

PubMed

Schlomann, Brandon H

2018-06-06

A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in ecological catastrophes, as well as increased interest in harnessing microbes for therapeutics, these processes have never been more relevant. To better understand them, I revisit here a differential equation model of logistic growth coupled to density-independent catastrophes that arrive as a Poisson process, and derive new analytic results that reveal its statistical structure. First, I derive exact expressions for the model's stationary moments, revealing a single effective catastrophe parameter that largely controls low order statistics. Then, I use weak convergence theorems to construct its Gaussian analog in a limit of frequent, small catastrophes, keeping the stationary population mean constant for normalization. Numerically computing statistics along this limit shows how they transform as the dynamics shifts from catastrophes to diffusions, enabling quantitative comparisons. For example, the mean time to extinction increases monotonically by orders of magnitude, demonstrating significantly higher extinction risk under catastrophes than under diffusions. Together, these results provide insight into a wide range of stochastic dynamical systems important for ecology and conservation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Federal disaster assistance programs

Treesearch

William J. Patterson

1995-01-01

The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act—Public Law 93-288, as amended—is designed to provide support and assistance to citizens, state, and local government from catastrophic disasters and emergencies. The law provides support in three distinct phases, including preparedness in avoiding or minimizing the effect of a disaster, response...

Availability analysis of mechanical systems with condition-based maintenance using semi-Markov and evaluation of optimal condition monitoring interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Girish; Jain, Vipul; Gandhi, O. P.

2018-03-01

Maintenance helps to extend equipment life by improving its condition and avoiding catastrophic failures. Appropriate model or mechanism is, thus, needed to quantify system availability vis-a-vis a given maintenance strategy, which will assist in decision-making for optimal utilization of maintenance resources. This paper deals with semi-Markov process (SMP) modeling for steady state availability analysis of mechanical systems that follow condition-based maintenance (CBM) and evaluation of optimal condition monitoring interval. The developed SMP model is solved using two-stage analytical approach for steady-state availability analysis of the system. Also, CBM interval is decided for maximizing system availability using Genetic Algorithm approach. The main contribution of the paper is in the form of a predictive tool for system availability that will help in deciding the optimum CBM policy. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for a centrifugal pump.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Utility indifference pricing of insurance catastrophe derivatives.

PubMed

Eichler, Andreas; Leobacher, Gunther; Szölgyenyi, Michaela

2017-01-01

We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The associated stochastic optimization problem is treated by techniques for piecewise deterministic Markov processes. A numerical study illustrates our results.

Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Edgar Oscar

2013-01-01

A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, H. A.

1981-01-01

A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

1990-01-01

Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence

PubMed Central

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

2015-01-01

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

PubMed

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

2015-08-25

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

Pain-related avoidance versus endurance in primary care patients with subacute back pain: psychological characteristics and outcome at a 6-month follow-up.

PubMed

Hasenbring, Monika I; Hallner, Dirk; Klasen, Bernhard; Streitlein-Böhme, Irmgard; Willburger, Roland; Rusche, Herbert

2012-01-01

Recent research has found individual differences in back pain patients due to behavioral avoidance vs persistence. However, there is a lack of prospective studies of nonspecific low back pain patients. The avoidance-endurance model (AEM) suggests at least 3 pathways leading to chronic pain: fear-avoidance response, distress-endurance response, and eustress-endurance response. We sought to compare these 3 maladaptive subgroups with an adaptive group using a classification tool that included the following scales: the thought suppression and behavioral endurance subscale of the Avoidance-Endurance Questionnaire and the Beck Depression Inventory. The psychological characteristics, and pain and disability of the AEM subgroups were investigated. We report results from 177 patients with subacute nonspecific low back pain at the start of outpatient treatment and at follow-up after 6 months. At baseline, a multivariate analysis of variance found that the fear-avoidance patients scored higher in pain catastrophizing than the other groups. The distress-endurance patients displayed elevated anxiety/depression and helplessness/hopelessness accompanied with the highest scores in the classification variables thought suppression and persistence behavior. The eustress-endurance patients had the highest humor/distraction scores, pain persistence, and positive mood despite pain. All 3 maladaptive groups revealed a higher pain intensity than the adaptive patients at follow-up after 6 months; however, disability at follow-up was elevated only in the fear-avoidance and distress-endurance patients. The study provides preliminary evidence for the construct and prospective validity of AEM-based subgroups of subacute, nonspecific back pain patients. The results suggest the need for individually targeted cognitive behavioral treatments in the maladaptive groups. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Wireless battery management control and monitoring system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zumstein, James M.; Chang, John T.; Farmer, Joseph C.

A battery management system using a sensor inside of the battery that sensor enables monitoring and detection of various events in the battery and transmission of a signal from the sensor through the battery casing to a control and data acquisition module by wireless transmission. The detection of threshold events in the battery enables remedial action to be taken to avoid catastrophic events.

Peace Education, Domestic Tranquility, and Democracy: The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster as Domestic Violence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ide, Kanako

2014-01-01

This article is an attempt to develop a theory of peace education through an examination of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. It examines why Japan did not avoid this terrible nuclear disaster. This is an educational issue, because one of the major impacts of Fukushima's catastrophe is that it indicates the failure of peace education. In…

Avoiding polar catastrophe in the growth of polarly orientated nickel perovskite thin films by reactive oxide molecular beam epitaxy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, H. F.; Liu, Z. T.; Fan, C. C.

2016-08-15

By means of the state-of-the-art reactive oxide molecular beam epitaxy, we synthesized (001)- and (111)-orientated polar LaNiO{sub 3} thin films. In order to avoid the interfacial reconstructions induced by polar catastrophe, screening metallic Nb-doped SrTiO{sub 3} and iso-polarity LaAlO{sub 3} substrates were chosen to achieve high-quality (001)-orientated films in a layer-by-layer growth mode. For largely polar (111)-orientated films, we showed that iso-polarity LaAlO{sub 3} (111) substrate was more suitable than Nb-doped SrTiO{sub 3}. In situ reflection high-energy electron diffraction, ex situ high-resolution X-ray diffraction, and atomic force microscopy were used to characterize these films. Our results show that special attentionsmore » need to be paid to grow high-quality oxide films with polar orientations, which can prompt the explorations of all-oxide electronics and artificial interfacial engineering to pursue intriguing emergent physics like proposed interfacial superconductivity and topological phases in LaNiO{sub 3} based superlattices.« less

Coping with persistent pain: a comparison of persistent pain sufferers in a specialty pain clinic and in a family practice clinic.

PubMed

Crook, J; Tunks, E; Kalaher, S; Roberts, J

1988-08-01

Coping has been defined as an effort to manage external and internal demands and conflicts that tax or exceed a person's resources. This paper examines the types of coping strategies used by two groups of persistent pain sufferers: one from a family practice clinic and the other from a specialty pain clinic. The relationship between the use of different types of coping strategies and adjustment was determined. The two study groups of persistent pain sufferers differed significantly from each other on many of the indices developed to tap adjustment but did not differ on any of the Billings and Moos original categories of coping strategies. When a factor analysis of coping items was performed, 5 valid clusters relevant to the chronic pain patient samples were determined. The factor the authors entitled 'adversarialness' with the qualities of dysphoric withdrawal, avoidant behavior and catastrophizing was found to explain adjustment defined by several indices. The authors conclude that it may be important to help persistent pain sufferers to alter their attitudes and behavior that tend toward catastrophizing, avoidance and withdrawal, rather than simply concentrate on trying to teach them techniques for 'coping with stress.'

Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

2016-04-01

Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

Protecting worker and public health during responses to catastrophic disasters-learning from the World Trade Center experience.

PubMed

Newman, David M

2014-11-01

Despite incremental lessons learned since 9/11, responder and community health remain at unnecessary risk during responses to catastrophic disasters, as evidenced during the BP Deepwater Horizon spill and Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Sandy. Much of the health harm that occurs during disaster response, as distinct from during the disaster event itself, is avoidable. Protection of public health should be an integral component of disaster response, which should "do no additional harm." This commentary examines how challenges and gaps the World Trade Center response resulted in preventable occupational and environmental health harm. It proposes changes in disaster response policies to better protect the health of rescue and recovery workers, volunteers, and impacted worker and residential communities. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Graded Exposure for Chronic Low Back Pain in Older Adults: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Leonhardt, Corinna; Kuss, Katrin; Becker, Annette; Basler, Heinz-Dieter; de Jong, Jeroen; Flatau, Brigitta; Laekeman, Marjan; Mattenklodt, Peter; Schuler, Matthias; Vlaeyen, Johan; Quint, Sabine

Fear-avoidance beliefs in older adults with chronic low back pain (CLBP) can lead to disability. Graded exposure-based active physical therapy could be an option to enhance physical ability in older patients with CLBP. The purpose of this study was to develop a standardized graded exposure treatment according to the fear-avoidance model of musculoskeletal pain for older patients with CLBP and to examine its effectiveness and feasibility in the German health care system. The study represents a phase I/phase II trial of a complex intervention. Taking a first step into the hierarchy of growing empirical evidence, a prospective 1-factor observational study was conducted with repeated measurements 1 week before and within 2 weeks after the intervention. Three physical therapists, who completed an introductory workshop, provided the treatment in the form of individual therapies. Sixteen participants 65 years or older with CLBP and perceived physical limitations were recruited. Four patient-reported outcome measures and semistructured interviews were conducted. The primary outcome was physical ability measured with the Hanover Functional Ability Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes were the numerical pain rating scale, and an age-specific and adapted 11-item short-form of the Patient Anxiety Symptom Scale, the KVS-D 65+, which quantified catastrophizing and avoidance beliefs. Fear of falling was measured with the Falls Efficacy Scale-International. For the analysis, Wilcoxon signed-rank test for paired samples and an α level of .05 were chosen. For the qualitative evaluation, semistructured interviews were conducted with the patients and physical therapists explored indicators of feasibility such as demands, acceptability, satisfaction, adaptation needs, and implementation. For content analysis, codes were primarily derived deductively and complemented by inductively derived new themes. A significant increase in physical ability after the treatment was observed with an effect size (ES) of 0.95 (P = .008). With regard to secondary outcomes, there was a statistically significant decrease in pain intensity (P = .029) and a reduction in catastrophizing (ES = 0.91; P = .021) and avoidance beliefs (ES = 1.37; P = .001). The interviews revealed good acceptance and satisfaction of the treatment by the patients and physical therapists. On the whole, the treatment appears effective and feasible. Apart from the benefits achieved by the participants, the study provides a basis for designing future studies at a higher level of evidence.

Pain Catastrophizing: An Updated Review

PubMed Central

Leung, Lawrence

2012-01-01

Pain catastrophizing has been described for more than half a century which adversely affects the pain coping behavior and overall prognosis in susceptible individuals when challenged by painful conditions. It is a distinct phenomenon which is characterized by feelings of helplessness, active rumination and excessive magnification of cognitions and feelings toward the painful situation. Susceptible subjects may have certain demographic or psychological predisposition. Various models of pain catastrophizing have been proposed which include attention-bias, schema-activation, communal-coping and appraisal models. Nevertheless, consensus is still lacking as to the true nature and mechanisms for pain catastrophizing. Recent advances in population genomics and noninvasive neuroimaging have helped elucidate the known determinants and neurophysiological correlates behind this potentially disabling behavior. PMID:23441031

Kinesin-8 Motors Improve Nuclear Centering by Promoting Microtubule Catastrophe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glunčić, Matko; Maghelli, Nicola; Krull, Alexander; Krstić, Vladimir; Ramunno-Johnson, Damien; Pavin, Nenad; Tolić, Iva M.

2015-02-01

In fission yeast, microtubules push against the cell edge, thereby positioning the nucleus in the cell center. Kinesin-8 motors regulate microtubule catastrophe; however, their role in nuclear positioning is not known. Here we develop a physical model that describes how kinesin-8 motors affect nuclear centering by promoting a microtubule catastrophe. Our model predicts the improved centering of the nucleus in the presence of motors, which we confirmed experimentally in living cells. The model also predicts a characteristic time for the recentering of a displaced nucleus, which is supported by our experiments where we displaced the nucleus using optical tweezers.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transactionmore » is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.« less

Combined Endovascular Repair of a Celiac Trunk Aneurysm Using Celiac-Splenic Stent Graft and Hepatic Artery Embolization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Rivolta, Nicola; Fontana, Federico

2010-04-15

Celiac trunk aneurysms are rare and usually asymptomatic lesions. However, treatment is generally warranted to avoid catastrophic rupture. We report a case of a 70-year-old man who sought care for a celiac trunk aneurysm close to the hepatosplenic bifurcation managed endovascularly by using a combined treatment of celiac-splenic stent-graft implantation and hepatic artery embolization.

Ruptured cervical arteriovenous fistulas presenting with subarachnoid hemorrhage and quadriplegia: an uncommon case.

PubMed

Liu, Chien-Liang; Su, Yung-Cheng; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chong, Chee-Fah; Wang, Tzong-Luen

2008-02-01

Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage is a neurologic emergency, and prompt treatment is necessary to avoid catastrophic result. We present a patient with subarachnoid hemorrhage caused by ruptured cervical intradural extramedullary arteriovenous fistulas, which rapidly progressed to quadriplegia. Because of the timely management, the patient had a good recovery. This is a rare but important case that emergency physicians should be aware of.

Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

PubMed

Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

2016-09-01

There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

How primordial is the structure of comet 67P/C-G (and of comets in general)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jutzi, Martin; Benz, Willy; Toliou, Anastasia; Rickman, Hans; Bottke, William; Brasser, Ramon

2016-10-01

Several properties of the comet 67P-CG suggest that it is a primordial planetesimal. On the other hand, the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of the craters detected by the New Horizons missions at the surface of Pluto and Charon reveal that the SFD of trans-Neptunian objects smaller than 100km in diameter is very similar to that of the asteroid belt. Because the asteroid belt SFD is at collisional equilibrium, this observation suggests that the SFD of the trans-Neptunian population is at collisional equilibrium as well, implying that comet-size bodies should be the product of collisional fragmentation and not primordial objects. To test whether comet 67P-CG could be a (possibly lucky) survivor of the original population, we conducted a series of numerical impact experiments, where an object with the shape and the density of 67P-CG, and material strength varying from 10 to 1,000 Pa, is hit on the "head" by a 100m projectile at different speeds. From these experiments we derive the impact energy required to disrupt the body catastrophically, or destroy its bi-lobed shape, as a function of impact speed. Next, we consider a dynamical model where the original trans-Neptunian disk is dispersed during a phase of temporary dynamical instability of the giant planets, which successfully reproduces the scattered disk and Oort cloud populations inferred from the current fluxes of Jupiter-family and long period comets. We find that, if the dynamical dispersal of the disk occurs late, as in the Late Heavy Bombardment hypothesis, a 67P-CG-like body has a negligible probability to avoid all catastrophic collisions. During this phase, however, the collisional equilibrium SFD measured by the New Horizons mission can be established. Instead, if the dispersal of the disk occurred as soon as gas was removed, a 67P-CG-like body has about a 20% chance to avoid catastrophic collisions. Nevertheless it would still undergo 10s of reshaping collisions. We estimate that, statistically, the last reshaping collision should have happened 250My-1Gy ago, implying that the actual morphology of 67P-CG should be younger than this age.

Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

PubMed

Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

2012-08-01

In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes.

PubMed

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-26

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO 2 , the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO 2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO 2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO 2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

PubMed Central

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-01-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. PMID:28912354

Very serious and non-ignorable problem: Crisis in emergency medical response in catastrophic event.

PubMed

Shen, Weifeng; Jiang, Libing; Zhang, Mao; Ma, Yuefeng; Jiang, Guanyu; He, Xiaojun

2015-12-01

The crisis of medical response caused by catastrophic events might significantly affect emergency response, and might even initiate more serious social crisis. Therefore, early identification and timely blocking the formation of crisis in the early phase after a major disaster will improve the efficiency of medical response in a major disaster and avoid serious consequences. In the present paper, we described the emergency strategy to crisis management of medical response after a major disaster. Major catastrophic events often lead to various crises, including excess demand, the crisis of response in barrier and the structural crisis in response. The corresponding emergency response strategies include: (i) shunt of catastrophic medical surge; (ii) scalability of medical surge capacity; (iii) matching of the structural elements of response; (iv) maintaining the functions of support system for medical response and maximising the operation of the integrated response system; and (v) selection of appropriate care 'standard' in extreme situations of overload of disaster medical surge. In conclusion, under the impact of a major catastrophic event, medical response is often complex and the medical surge beyond the conventional response capacity and it is easy to be in crisis. In addition to the current consensus of disaster response, three additional aspects should be considered. First, all relevant society forces led by the government and military should be linkages. Second, a powerful medical response system must be based on a strong support system. Third, countermeasures of medical surge should be applied flexibly to the special and specific disaster environment, to promote the effective medical response force. © 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities.

PubMed

Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei

2012-11-01

For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Development and Psychometric Validation of an Arabic-Language Version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

PubMed Central

Fares, Souha

2017-01-01

Context. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) is the most widely used measure of pain-specific catastrophizing. Objectives. The purpose of the present study was to develop and psychometrically evaluate an Arabic-language version of the PCS. Methods. In Study 1, 150 adult chronic nonmalignant pain patients seeking treatment at a hospital setting completed the PCS-A and a number of self-report measures assessing clinical parameters of pain, symptoms of depression, and quality of life. Study 2 employed a cold pressor pain task to examine the PCS-A in a sample of 44 healthy university students. Results. Exploratory factor analyses suggested a two-factor structure. Confirmatory factor analysis comparing the 2-factor model, Sullivan's original 3-factor model, and a 1-factor model based on the total score all provided adequate fit to the data. Cronbach's alpha coefficients across all models met or exceeded accepted standards of reliability. Catastrophizing was associated with higher levels of depression and increased pain intensity and interference. Catastrophizing predicted decreased quality of life, even after controlling for the contribution of gender, employment, depression, and pain interference. PCS-A scores were positively correlated with heightened experimental pain severity and decreased pain tolerance. Conclusion. The present results provide strong support for the psychometric properties of the PCS-A. PMID:28190958

Condition of the upper atmosphere of the Earth at the final stage of flight manned orbital facility (MOF) "Mir". The modeling description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyarchuk, K. A.; Ivanov-Kholodny, G. S.; Kolomiitsev, O. P.; Surotkin, V. A.

At flooding MOF ``Mir'' the information on forecasting a condition of the upper atmosphere was used. The forecast was carried out on the basis of numerical model of an atmosphere, which was developed in IZMIRAN. This model allows reproducing and predicting a situation in an Earth space, in an atmosphere and an ionosphere, along an orbit of flight of a space vehicle in the various periods of solar-geophysical conditions. Thus preliminary forecasting solar and geomagnetic activity was carried out on the basis of an individual technique. Before the beginning of operation on flooding MOF ``Mir'' it was found out, that solar activity began to accrue catastrophically. The account of the forecast of its development has forced to speed up the moment of flooding to avoid dangerous development of events. It has allowed minimizing a risk factor - ``Mir'' was flooded successful in the commanded area of Pacific Ocean.

OBIST methodology incorporating modified sensitivity of pulses for active analogue filter components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khade, R. H.; Chaudhari, D. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper, oscillation-based built-in self-test method is used to diagnose catastrophic and parametric faults in integrated circuits. Sallen-Key low pass filter and high pass filter circuits with different gains are used to investigate defects. Variation in seven parameters of operational amplifier (OP-AMP) like gain, input impedance, output impedance, slew rate, input bias current, input offset current, input offset voltage and catastrophic as well as parametric defects in components outside OP-AMP are introduced in the circuit and simulation results are analysed. Oscillator output signal is converted to pulses which are used to generate a signature of the circuit. The signature and pulse count changes with the type of fault present in the circuit under test (CUT). The change in oscillation frequency is observed for fault detection. Designer has flexibility to predefine tolerance band of cut-off frequency and range of pulses for which circuit should be accepted. The fault coverage depends upon the required tolerance band of the CUT. We propose a modification of sensitivity of parameter (pulses) to avoid test escape and enhance yield. Result shows that the method provides 100% fault coverage for catastrophic faults.

Do preoperative fear avoidance model factors predict outcomes after lumbar disc herniation surgery? A systematic review.

PubMed

Alodaibi, Faris A; Minick, Kate I; Fritz, Julie M

2013-11-18

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) surgery is usually recommended when conservative treatments fail to manage patients' symptoms. However, many patients undergoing LDH surgery continue to report pain and disability. Preoperative psychological factors have shown to be predictive for postoperative outcomes. Our aim was to systematically review studies that prospectively examined the prognostic value of factors in the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM), including back pain, leg pain, catastrophizing, anxiety, fear-avoidance, depression, physical activity and disability, to predict postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing LDH surgery. We performed a systematic literature review of prospective studies that measured any FAM factors preoperatively to predict postoperative outcomes for patients undergoing LDH surgery. Our search databases included PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. We assessed the quality of each included study using a certain quality assessment list. Degree of agreement between reviewers on quality assessment was examined. Results related to FAM factors in the included studies were summarized. Thirteen prospective studies met our inclusion criteria. Most studies were considered high quality. Heterogeneity was present between the included studies in many aspects. The most common FAM factors examinered were baseline pain, disability and depression. In, general, depression, fear-avoidance behaviors, passive pain coping, and anxiety FAM factors appeared to have negative influence on LDH surgical outcome. Baseline back pain and leg pain appeared to have differing prognostic value on LDH surgical outcomes. FAM factors seem to influence LDH surgical outcomes. Patients with high levels of depression, anxiety and fear-avoidance behaviors are more likely to have poor outcomes following LDH surgery. Conversely, high levels of leg pain, but not back pain seem to be predictor for favorable LDH surgery outcome. More research is needed to determine the exact role of FAM factors on LDH surgical outcome and the value for screening for these factors.

Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-16

order for cloud computing infrastructures to be successfully deployed in real world scenarios as tools for crisis and catastrophe management, where...Statement of the Problem Studied As cloud computing becomes the dominant computational infrastructure[1] and cloud technologies make a transition to hosting...1. Formulate rigorous mathematical models representing technological capabilities and resources in cloud computing for performance modeling and

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

PubMed

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

Relationship between catastrophic health expenditures and household incomes and expenditure patterns in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Younhee; Yang, Bongmin

2011-05-01

The compositions of health expenditures by households in South Korea with and without catastrophic health expenditures were compared. Also, relationships between catastrophic health expenditures and household incomes, and between such health expenditures and expenditure patterns were explored. Data from the 2006 South Korean Household Income & Expenditure Survey, a representative survey of 90,696 households were analyzed. We used a double-hurdle model to assess each income source and expenditure category. The independent variable was the presence of catastrophic health expenditure. After adjusting for household characteristics, the results showed that earned, business, and property incomes were significantly lower, but transfer and loan incomes were significantly higher in households with catastrophic health expenditures than in those without such health expenditures. All consumption categories, other than health expenditure, were significantly lower in households with catastrophic health expenditures than in those without catastrophic health expenditures. This suggests that households with catastrophic health expenditures faced challenges in offset by the potentially excessive health expenditure and may have been obliged to reduce consumption of other items. The expansion of insurance coverage and lowering of out-of-pocket rates in the South Korean Health Insurance benefits could be a necessary first step in protecting households from the occurrence of health related economic catastrophes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

PubMed

Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

2016-09-13

Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides

PubMed Central

Handwerger, Alexander L.; Rempel, Alan W.; Skarbek, Rob M.; Roering, Joshua J.; Hilley, George E.

2016-01-01

Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length h* that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments. PMID:27573836

The Relationship between Victimization at School and Achievement: The Cusp Catastrophe Model for Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sideridis, Georgios D.; Antoniou, Faye; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Morgan, Paul L.

2013-01-01

We evaluated the relationship between victimization and academic achievement from a nonlinear perspective using a cusp catastrophe model. Participants were 62 students with identified learning disabilities (LD) using statewide criteria in Greece. Students participated in a 2-year cohort-sequential design. Reading assessments involved measures of…

ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

PubMed

Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

2013-11-21

ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A swallowtail catastrophe model for the emergence of leadership in coordination-intensive groups.

PubMed

Guastello, Stephen J; Bond, Robert W

2007-04-01

This research extended the previous studies concerning the swallowtail catastrophe model for leadership emergence to coordination-intensive groups. Thirteen 4-person groups composed of undergraduates played in Intersection coordination (card game) task and were allowed to talk while performing it; 13 other groups worked nonverbally. A questionnaire measured leadership emergence at the end of the game along with other social contributions to the groups' efforts. The swallowtail catastrophe model that was evident in previous leadership emergence phenomena in creative problem solving and production groups was found here also. All three control parameters were identified: a general participation variable that was akin to K in the rugged landscape model of self-organization, task control, and whether the groups worked verbally or nonverbally. Several new avenues for future research were delineated.

Child and parent pain catastrophizing and pain from presurgery to 6 weeks postsurgery: examination of cross-sectional and longitudinal actor-partner effects.

PubMed

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chorney, Jill; El-Hawary, Ron

2017-10-01

Child and parent pain catastrophizing are reported preoperative risk factors for children's acute and persistent postsurgical pain. This study examined dyadic relations between child and parent pain catastrophizing and child and parent ratings of child pain prior to (M = 4.01 days; "baseline") and following surgery (M = 6.5 weeks; "acute follow-up"), as well changes in pain catastrophizing during this time in 167 youth (86% female; Mage = 14.55 years) undergoing spinal fusion surgery and 1 parent (89% mothers). Actor-partner interdependence models assessed cross-sectional and longitudinal intra- and interpersonal effects. Cross-sectionally, child pain catastrophizing was positively associated with child pain at baseline and acute follow-up (actor effects: βbaseline = 0.288 and βfollow-up = 0.262; P < 0.01), and parents' ratings of child pain at baseline (partner effect: βbaseline = 0.212; P < 0.01). Parent pain catastrophizing was not cross-sectionally associated with ratings of child pain. Longitudinally, higher pain catastrophizing at baseline predicted higher pain catastrophizing at acute follow-up for children (actor effect: β = 0.337; P < 0.01) and parents (actor effect: β = 0.579; P < 0.01) with a significantly smaller effect for children (respondent × actor interaction: β = 0.121; P < 0.05). No longitudinal partner effects for catastrophizing were observed. Baseline child and parent pain catastrophizing did not predict child pain at acute follow-up. In conclusion, child, not parent, pain catastrophizing was associated with children's pre- and postsurgical pain, and showed significantly less stability over time. There is a need to better understand contributors to the stability or changeability of pain catastrophizing, the prospective relation of catastrophizing to pain, and contexts in which child vs parent pain catastrophizing is most influential for pediatric postsurgical pain.

Mind-body interactions in pain: the neurophysiology of anxious and catastrophic pain-related thoughts.

PubMed

Campbell, Claudia M; Edwards, Robert R

2009-03-01

The well-accepted biopsychosocial model proposes that the experience of pain and responses to it result from a complex interaction of biological, psychological, and social factors. However, the separation of these constructs is substantially artificial, and we presume that psychological processes have biological effects, that biological processes affect an individual's psychosocial environment, and so on. Considerable research has demonstrated that pain-coping strategies influence perceived pain intensity and physical functioning, and individual differences in styles of pain coping even shape the persistence of long-term pain complaints in some populations. A good deal of this coping research has focused on catastrophizing, which is a generally maladaptive cognitive and emotional mental set that involves feelings of helplessness when in pain, rumination about pain symptoms, and magnification of pain-related complaints. Collectively, catastrophizing has been consistently associated with heightened experiences of pain across a variety of samples. Although catastrophic thinking regarding pain-related symptoms is often classified under the "psychologic" category within the broader biopsychosocial model, we propose that catastrophizing exerts biologic effects that may account for some of its negative consequences. In general, the cognitive and affective processes captured within the construct of catastrophizing may exert effects on the neuromuscular, cardiovascular, immune, and neuroendocrine systems, and on the activity in the pain neuromatrix within the brain. The interface between pain-related neurobiology and processes such as pain-related catastrophizing represents an important avenue for future pain research.

Examining the mediational role of psychological flexibility, pain catastrophizing, and visceral sensitivity in the relationship between psychological distress, irritable bowel symptom frequency, and quality of life.

PubMed

Cassar, G E; Knowles, S; Youssef, G J; Moulding, R; Uiterwijk, D; Waters, L; Austin, D W

2018-06-08

The aim of the current study was to use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to examine whether psychological flexibility (i.e. mindfulness, acceptance, valued-living) mediates the relationship between distress, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) symptom frequency, and quality of life (QoL). Ninety-two individuals participated in the study (12 male, 80 female, M age  = 36.24) by completing an online survey including measures of visceral sensitivity, distress, IBS-related QoL, mindfulness, bowel symptoms, pain catastrophizing, acceptance, and valued-living. A final model with excellent fit was identified. Psychological distress significantly and directly predicted pain catastrophizing, valued-living, and IBS symptom frequency. Pain catastrophizing directly predicted visceral sensitivity and acceptance, while visceral sensitivity significantly and directly predicted IBS symptom frequency and QoL. Symptom frequency also had a direct and significant relationship with QoL. The current findings suggest that interventions designed to address unhelpful cognitive processes related to visceral sensitivity, pain catastrophizing, and psychological distress may be of most benefit to IBS-related QoL.

Health-Related Financial Catastrophe, Inequality and Chronic Illness in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Gilmour, Stuart; Saito, Eiko; Sultana, Papia; Shibuya, Kenji

2013-01-01

Background Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. Objective This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. Methods A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. Results On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. Conclusion Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by reducing the health system's dependency on OOP payments and providing more financial risk protection. PMID:23451102

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe

PubMed Central

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S.; Geyer, Elisabeth A.; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M.

2016-01-01

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe—the switch from growing to shrinking—occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. PMID:27146111

Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

2018-02-01

We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

PubMed

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

2018-02-01

We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

A meta-analysis of fear-avoidance and pain intensity: The paradox of chronic pain.

PubMed

Kroska, Emily B

2016-10-01

The fear-avoidance model of chronic pain has established avoidance as a predictor of negative outcomes in chronic pain patients. Avoidance, or deliberate attempts to suppress or prevent unwanted experiences (e.g., pain), has been studied extensively, with multiple reviews implicating this behavior as a predictor of disability, physical disuse, and depression. Despite hundreds of studies examining the associations between different components of this model (i.e., catastrophizing, fear, avoidance, depression), the association between fear-avoidance and pain intensity has remained unclear. The present study seeks to clarify this association across samples. The present analyses synthesize the literature (articles from PsycInfo, PubMed, and ProQuest) to determine if fear-avoidance and pain intensity are consistently correlated across studies, samples, and measures. Eligible studies measured pain intensity and fear-avoidance cross-sectionally in chronic pain patients. The search resulted in 118 studies eligible for inclusion. A random-effects model was used to estimate the weighted mean effect size. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software was used for all analyses. Moderation analyses elucidate the variables that affect the strength of this association. Meta-regression and meta-ANOVA analyses were conducted to examine moderating variables. Moderator variables include demographic characteristics, pain characteristics, study characteristics, and national cultural characteristics (using Hofstede's cultural dimensions). Publication bias was examined using the funnel plot and the p-curve. Results indicate a small-to-moderate positive association between fear-avoidance and pain intensity. The results were stable across characteristics of the sample, including mean age, gender distribution, marital status, and duration of pain. Moderation analyses indicate that the measures utilized and cultural differences affect the strength of this association. Weaker effect sizes were observed for studies that utilized measures of experiential avoidance when compared to studies that utilized pain-specific fear-avoidance measures. Studies that utilized multiple measures of fear-avoidance had stronger effect sizes than studies that utilized a single measure of fear-avoidance. Three of Hofstede's cultural dimensions moderated the association, including Power Distance Index, Individualism versus Collectivism, and Indulgence versus Restraint. The present meta-analysis synthesizes the results from studies examining the association between fear-avoidance and pain intensity among individuals with chronic pain. The positive association indicates that those with increased fear-avoidance have higher pain intensity, and those with higher pain intensity have increased fear-avoidance. Findings indicate that cultural differences and measurement instruments are important to consider in understanding the variables that affect this association. The significant cultural variations may indicate that it is important to consider the function of avoidance behavior in different cultures in an effort to better understand each patient's cultural beliefs, as well as how these beliefs are related to pain and associated coping strategies. The results from the current meta-analysis can be used to inform interventions for patients with chronic pain. In particular, those with more intense pain or increased fear-avoidance should be targeted for prevention and intervention work. Within the intervention itself, avoidance should be undermined and established as an ineffective strategy to manage pain in an effort to prevent disability, depression, and physical deconditioning. Copyright © 2016 Scandinavian Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dutch version of the Fear of Pain Questionnaire for adolescents with chronic pain.

PubMed

Dekker, Carolien; Bastiaenen, Caroline H G; de Vries, Janneke E; Simons, Laura E; Goossens, Mariëlle E J B; Verbunt, Jeanine A M C F

2018-06-01

Fear of pain is important in the development and maintenance of chronic pain. The Fear of Pain Questionnaire-Child version has been developed to assess pain related fear in children and adolescents. Translating the original questionnaire into Dutch, and investigating internal consistency and construct validity to enable use in the Dutch pain rehabilitation setting for treatment and research. Cross-sectional validation study: After forward and back translation of the FOPQ-C, adolescents (11-22 years old) with chronic musculoskeletal pain completed an assessment containing the Dutch Fear of Pain Questionnaire, and questionnaires about demographics, pain catastrophizing, functional disability, and pain intensity. Internal consistency and construct validity were evaluated through exploratory factor analysis (principal axis factoring with oblique rotation) and hypotheses testing using pain catastrophizing, functional disability, and pain intensity as comparative constructs. Eighty-six adolescents completed the assessment. Exploratory factor analysis resulted in a two-factor structure, explaining 43% of the variance. Internal consistency was strong (Cronbach's α = 0.92 total scale, α = 0.88 factor 1, and α = .86 factor 2). Five out of 6 hypotheses were confirmed. The Dutch version demonstrated good internal consistency and good construct validity in a population of adolescents with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Implications for rehabilitation The Fear of Pain Questionnaire-Child version was developed to measure fear of pain and avoidance in children and adolescents with chronic pain. Identification of fear of pain and activities that are being avoided are important during screening and assessment of the adolescent for chronic pain rehabilitation treatment. The presence of fear of pain and/or avoidance behavior is important information to shape and target multidisciplinary rehabilitation treatment.

New approach to analysis of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude in subduction zones and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis on examples of catastrophic events in 21 century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagash, I. A.; Lobkovsky, L. I.; Mazova, R. Kh.

2012-04-01

The study of generation of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude (near above 9) and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis, is performed by authors on the basis of new approach to the generation process, occurring in subduction zones under earthquake. The necessity of performing of such studies is connected with recent 11 March 2011 catastrophic underwater earthquake close to north-east Japan coastline and following it catastrophic tsunami which had led to vast victims and colossal damage for Japan. The essential importance in this study is determined by unexpected for all specialists the strength of earthquake occurred (determined by magnitude M = 9), inducing strongest tsunami with wave height runup on the beach up to 10 meters. The elaborated by us model of interaction of ocean lithosphere with island-arc blocks in subduction zones, with taking into account of incomplete stress discharge at realization of seismic process and further accumulation of elastic energy, permits to explain arising of strongest mega-earthquakes, such as catastrophic earthquake with source in Japan deep-sea trench in March, 2011. In our model, the wide possibility for numerical simulation of dynamical behaviour of underwater seismic source is provided by kinematical model of seismic source as well as by elaborated by authors numerical program for calculation of tsunami wave generation by dynamical and kinematical seismic sources. The method obtained permits take into account the contribution of residual tectonic stress in lithosphere plates, leading to increase of earthquake energy, which is usually not taken into account up to date.

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

PubMed

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

2016-11-07

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handwerger, Alexander L.; Rempel, Alan W.; Skarbek, Rob M.; Roering, Joshua J.; Hilley, George E.

2016-09-01

Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length h*h* that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

Cognitive and Guided Mastery Therapies for Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia: 18-Year Long-Term Outcome and Predictors of Long-Term Change.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle; Hedley, Liv M; Svanøe, Karol; Sexton, Harold

2016-01-01

In this study, we wished to compare the long-term outcome of (medication-free) panic disorder with agoraphobia patients randomized to cognitive or guided mastery therapy. Thirty-one (67.4%) of 46 patients who had completed treatment were followed up about 18 years after end of treatment. In the combined sample and using intent-to-follow-up analyses, there were large within-group effect sizes of -1.79 and -1.63 on the primary interview-based and self-report outcome measures of avoidance of situations when alone, and 56.5% no longer had a panic disorder and/or agoraphobia diagnosis. No outcome differences between the two treatments emerged. Guided mastery was associated with greater beneficial changes in catastrophic beliefs and self-efficacy. For two of five outcome measures, more reduction in panic-related beliefs about physical and mental catastrophes from pre- to post-treatment predicted lower level of anxiety from post-treatment to 18-year follow-up when the effect of treatment changes in (a) self-efficacy and (b) anxiety was controlled. However, for one of the outcome measures, this effect attenuated with time. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The results suggest that the very-long-term outcome of both cognitive therapy and guided mastery therapy for agoraphobia is positive. The results support the role of catastrophic beliefs as mediator of change. The pattern of results suggests that learning processes other than catastrophic beliefs may be important for long-term outcome as well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Anxiety sensitivity, catastrophic misinterpretations and panic self-efficacy in the prediction of panic disorder severity: towards a tripartite cognitive model of panic disorder.

PubMed

Sandin, Bonifacio; Sánchez-Arribas, Carmen; Chorot, Paloma; Valiente, Rosa M

2015-04-01

The present study examined the contribution of three main cognitive factors (i.e., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily symptoms, and panic self-efficacy) in predicting panic disorder (PD) severity in a sample of patients with a principal diagnosis of panic disorder. It was hypothesized that anxiety sensitivity (AS), catastrophic misinterpretation of bodily sensations, and panic self-efficacy are uniquely related to panic disorder severity. One hundred and sixty-eight participants completed measures of AS, catastrophic misinterpretations of panic-like sensations, and panic self-efficacy prior to receiving treatment. Results of multiple linear regression analyses indicated that AS, catastrophic misinterpretations and panic self-efficacy independently predicted panic disorder severity. Results of path analyses indicated that AS was direct and indirectly (mediated by catastrophic misinterpretations) related with panic severity. Results provide evidence for a tripartite cognitive account of panic disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.

2008-09-15

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant {lambda} gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of {lambda} depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes'more » (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of {lambda}, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of {lambda} that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter {omega}, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.« less

Sensitivity of collective action to uncertainty about climate tipping points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Scott; Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-01-01

Despite more than two decades of diplomatic effort, concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to trend upwards, creating the risk that we may someday cross a threshold for `dangerous' climate change. Although climate thresholds are very uncertain, new research is trying to devise `early warning signals' of an approaching tipping point. This research offers a tantalizing promise: whereas collective action fails when threshold uncertainty is large, reductions in this uncertainty may bring about the behavioural change needed to avert a climate `catastrophe'. Here we present the results of an experiment, rooted in a game-theoretic model, showing that behaviour differs markedly either side of a dividing line for threshold uncertainty. On one side of the dividing line, where threshold uncertainty is relatively large, free riding proves irresistible and trust illusive, making it virtually inevitable that the tipping point will be crossed. On the other side, where threshold uncertainty is small, the incentive to coordinate is strong and trust more robust, often leading the players to avoid crossing the tipping point. Our results show that uncertainty must be reduced to this `good' side of the dividing line to stimulate the behavioural shift needed to avoid `dangerous' climate change.

Sedimentary gravity flows from subaerial fan-deltas in Loreto Bay, Baja California Sur, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro-Lozano, José O.; Nava-Sánchez, Enrique H.; Godínez-Orta, Lucio

2010-05-01

Fan-deltas from Loreto Bay show recent evidences of sedimentary gravity flows as a result from catastrophic events during hurricane rainfalls. The knowledge of hydrological characteristics of these flows is important for understanding the effects of storms on fan-deltas geomorphology in this region, as well as for the urban developing planning of the city of Loreto in order to avoid hazardous zones. The analysis of precipitation and hurricane tracks data for the period 1945 to 2009 indicates that hurricanes have caused catastrophic floods every 20 years. Stratigraphy from the channel incision shows a sequence of stream flow and debris flow controlled by changes in the competence and capacity of the stream, which are associated to the gentle slope (<2 °) of the fan-deltas. However fans from the north of the bay (Arce and Gúa) show deposits of debris flows associated to catastrophic floods, which have caused the incision channel to drift towards the southern part of the fans, while flows from Las Parras fan-delta, from the middle of the bay, are dominated by stream flows. These differences in the type of the flows are controlled by lithology, shape and size of the drainage basin, and slope of the transit zone in the feeder channel.

Context sensitive regulation of pain and emotion: Development and initial validation of a scale for context insensitive avoidance.

PubMed

Flink, Ida K; Klein-Strandberg, Ester; Linton, Steven J

2017-10-01

Context insensitivity has been put forward as a potential mechanism explaining the high co-occurrence of pain and emotional distress. In the pain literature, the concept has only been introduced at a theoretical level and an assessment tool for exploring its impact is lacking. In an interpersonal setting, a core aspect of context sensitivity and insensitivity concerns when to disclose and when to avoid expressing pain and related distress. Both context insensitive disclosure and context insensitive avoidance may hamper interpersonal support and fuel the problem. This exploratory study describes an attempt to develop a self-report instrument to assess tendencies to disclose vs. avoid expressions of pain and related distress, as well as self-perceived adjustment of disclosure vs. avoidance to the context. A pool of items was systematically developed to assess different aspects of context insensitivity, including disclosure vs. avoidance of expression. 105 participants with persistent pain were recruited at pain rehabilitation clinics (80% of the sample) and in a university setting (20% of the sample). The participants responded to the pool of items as well as to a number of validated self-report instruments covering pain, pain-related disability, pain catastrophizing, emotion regulation tendencies, self-compassion and pain acceptance. The analyses explored the factorial structure of the initial instrument, as well as the criterion and construct validity. The analyses confirmed a stable underlying structure of the initial scale, with four distinct factors explaining 64.4% of the total variance. However, the criterion and construct validity could only be confirmed for one of the factors, which contained items reflecting context insensitive avoidance of expression. Consequently, only this factor, demonstrating very good internal consistency, was kept in the final version of the instrument which was named context insensitive avoidance (CIA). We found support for the final version of our instrument, capturing one prominent aspect of context insensitivity. Avoidance of expression was related to higher ratings of pain, disability, catastrophizing and suppression as well as to lower levels of self-compassion. We encourage further studies to explore the impact of context insensitive avoidance for regulating pain and associated negative emotions. Yet, more research is needed that goes beyond self-report and includes other aspects of context. It is urgent to develop systematic ways for assessing context insensitivity, as it will enhance our understanding of regulatory strategies as potential transdiagnostic mechanisms in pain and emotion. This tool for assessing contextually insensitive avoidance of expression could potentially be used both clinically and in future research to advance our understanding of comorbid problems with pain and emotional distress. Further research is needed to develop methods for assessing other aspects of context insensitivity to fully understand its impact in patients suffering from pain. Copyright © 2017 Scandinavian Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

PubMed

Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

2010-01-01

The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

Learning to live with landscape fires.

PubMed

Gross, Michael

2015-08-17

Catastrophic wildfires have become more frequent in the last few decades. The standard depiction in the media of fires as a disaster that has to be avoided and stopped at all cost fails to do justice to a more complex ecological balance of destruction and new growth. The emerging discipline of pyrogeography aims to gain a holistic understanding of the role that fire plays in nature and the ways in which we can manage it sustainably. Michael Gross reports.

Nuclear capabilities of the Arabs and Israel and their implications for the Arab-Israeli conflict

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mustajel, S.Y.

The dissertation discusses the implications of such capabilities for the ongoing Arab-Israeli confict within the context of traditional deterrence - especially nuclear deterrence - theory. The major focus is on the resulting balance of terror and how it is likely to determine the outcome of the Arab-Israeli conflict. In part 1, a brief survey of the present and planned nuclear power and nuclear-power-related facilities, installations, research institutions, and possible nuclear delivery means possessed by the Arabs and the Israelis is presented. This survey is based only on readily available information. Part 2 presents an examination of the implications of themore » introduction of nuclear military capabilties by both sides or either side in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Egypt, with whatever nuclear capability it has, or will have, is considered in this study to be part of the Arab camp even though it has recently signed a separate peace treaty with Israel. Then, suggestions, based on conclusions and findings are provided to countries involved on how to avoid the catastrophic consequences of introducing nuclear weapons into the Arab-Israeli confict. In order to avoid catastrophic consequences of introducing nuclear weapons into the Arab-Israeli conflict, it is suggested that there must be a general peace settlement, followed by denuclearization of the Middle East region.« less

Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cryer, Patricia

1988-01-01

Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…

Efficient Word Reading: Automaticity of Print-Related Skills Indexed by Rapid Automatized Naming through Cusp-Catastrophe Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sideridis, Georgios D.; Simos, Panagiotis; Mouzaki, Angeliki; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

The study explored the moderating role of rapid automatized naming (RAN) in reading achievement through a cusp-catastrophe model grounded on nonlinear dynamic systems theory. Data were obtained from a community sample of 496 second through fourth graders who were followed longitudinally over 2 years and split into 2 random subsamples (validation…

The generic danger and the idiosyncratic support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Temme, Arnaud; Nijp, Jelmer; van der Meij, Marijn; Samia, Jalal; Masselink, Rens

2016-04-01

This contribution argues two main points. First, that generic landscapes used in some modelling studies sometimes have properties or cause simulation results that are unrealistic. Such initially flat or straight-sloped landscapes, sometimes with minor random perturbations, e.g. form the backdrop for ecological simulations of vegetation growth and competition that predict catastrophic shifts. Exploratory results for semi-arid systems suggest that the results based on these generic landscapes are end-members from a distribution of results, rather than an unbiased, typical outcome. Apparently, the desire to avoid idiosyncrasy has unintended consequences. Second, we argue and illustrate that in fact new insights often come from close inspection of idiosyncratic case studies. Our examples from landslide systems, connectivity and soil formation show how a central role for the case study - either in empirical work or to provide model targets - has advanced our understanding. Both points contribute to the conclusion that it is dangerous to forget about annoying, small-scale, idiosyncratic and, indeed, perhaps bad-ass case studies in Earth Sciences.

1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.

2017-12-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

PubMed

Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-05-01

Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

The affordability for patients of a new universal MDR-TB coverage model in China.

PubMed

Ruan, Y-Z; Li, R-Z; Wang, X-X; Wang, L-X; Sun, Q; Chen, C; Xu, C-H; Su, W; Zhao, J; Pang, Y; Cheng, J; Wang, Q; Fu, Y-T; Huan, S-T; Chen, M-T; Scano, F; Floyd, K; Chin, D P; Fitzpatrick, C

2016-05-01

China has piloted a new model of universal coverage for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), designed to rationalize hospital use of drugs and tests and move away from fee-for-service payment towards a standard package with financial protection against catastrophic health costs. To evaluate the affordability to patients of this new model. This was an observational study of 243 MDR-TB cases eligible for enrolment on treatment under the project. We assessed the affordability of the project from the perspective of households, with a focus on catastrophic costs. Of the 243 eligible cases, 172 (71%) were enrolled on treatment; of the 71 cases not enrolled, 26 (37%) cited economic reasons. The 73 surveyed cases paid an average of RMB 5977 (US$920) out-of-pocket in search costs incurred outside the pilot model. Within the pilot, they paid another RMB 2094 (US$322) in medical fees and RMB 5230 (US$805) in direct non-medical costs. Despite 90% reimbursement of medical fees, 78% of households experienced catastrophic costs, including indirect costs. The objectives of the pilot model are aligned with health reform in China and universal health coverage globally. Enrollment would almost certainly be higher with 100% reimbursement of medical fees, but patient enablers will be required to truly eliminate catastrophic costs.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Rural Household Impoverishment in China: What Role Does the New Cooperative Health Insurance Scheme Play?

PubMed Central

Wu, Qunhong; Liu, Chaojie; Jiao, Mingli; Liu, Guoxiang; Hao, Yanhua; Ning, Ning

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether the New Cooperative Medical Insurance Scheme (NCMS) is associated with decreased levels of catastrophic health expenditure and reduced impoverishment due to medical expenses in rural households of China. Methods An analysis of a national representative sample of 38,945 rural households (129,635 people) from the 2008 National Health Service Survey was performed. Logistic regression models used binary indicator of catastrophic health expenditure as dependent variable, with household consumption, demographic characteristics, health insurance schemes, and chronic illness as independent variables. Results Higher percentage of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditure and medical impoverishment correlates to increased health care need. While the higher socio-economic status households had similar levels of catastrophic health expenditure as compared with the lowest. Households covered by the NCMS had similar levels of catastrophic health expenditure and medical impoverishment as those without health insurance. Conclusion Despite over 95% of coverage, the NCMS has failed to prevent catastrophic health expenditure and medical impoverishment. An upgrade of benefit packages is needed, and effective cost control mechanisms on the provider side needs to be considered. PMID:24714605

Fear of pain, pain catastrophizing, and acute pain perception: relative prediction and timing of assessment.

PubMed

Hirsh, Adam T; George, Steven Z; Bialosky, Joel E; Robinson, Michael E

2008-09-01

Pain-related fear and catastrophizing are important variables of consideration in an individual's pain experience. Methodological limitations of previous studies limit strong conclusions regarding these relationships. In this follow-up study, we examined the relationships between fear of pain, pain catastrophizing, and experimental pain perception. One hundred healthy volunteers completed the Fear of Pain Questionnaire (FPQ-III), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and Coping Strategies Questionnaire-Catastrophizing scale (CSQ-CAT) before undergoing the cold pressor test (CPT). The CSQ-CAT and PCS were completed again after the CPT, with participants instructed to complete these measures based on their experience during the procedure. Measures of pain threshold, tolerance, and intensity were collected and served as dependent variables in separate regression models. Sex, pain catastrophizing, and pain-related fear were included as predictor variables. Results of regression analyses indicated that after controlling for sex, pain-related fear was a consistently stronger predictor of pain in comparison to catastrophizing. These results were consistent when separate measures (CSQ-CAT vs PCS) and time points (pretask vs "in vivo") of catastrophizing were used. These findings largely corroborate those from our previous study and are suggestive of the absolute and relative importance of pain-related fear in the experimental pain experience. Although pain-related fear has received less attention in the experimental literature than pain catastrophizing, results of the current study are consistent with clinical reports highlighting this variable as an important aspect of the experience of pain.

Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

PubMed

van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

1992-07-01

In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

Composing a la Koch: Making Sense of Catastrophe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stroble, Elizabeth

1987-01-01

Argues one way to make sense of a catastrophe is to use Kenneth Koch's poetry methods. By using these strategics, teachers can help students discover the thoughts and feelings of great artists. Students can then express their thoughts through these model poems. (BR)

Diffusion models for innovation: s-curves, networks, power laws, catastrophes, and entropy.

PubMed

Jacobsen, Joseph J; Guastello, Stephen J

2011-04-01

This article considers models for the diffusion of innovation would be most relevant to the dynamics of early 21st century technologies. The article presents an overview of diffusion models and examines the adoption S-curve, network theories, difference models, influence models, geographical models, a cusp catastrophe model, and self-organizing dynamics that emanate from principles of network configuration and principles of heat diffusion. The diffusion dynamics that are relevant to information technologies and energy-efficient technologies are compared. Finally, principles of nonlinear dynamics for innovation diffusion that could be used to rehabilitate the global economic situation are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu

Since only the magnetic conditions at the photosphere can be routinely observed in current observations, it is of great significance to determine the influences of photospheric magnetic conditions on solar eruptive activities. Previous studies about catastrophe indicated that the magnetic system consisting of a flux rope in a partially open bipolar field is subject to catastrophe, but not if the bipolar field is completely closed under the same specified photospheric conditions. In order to investigate the influence of the photospheric magnetic conditions on the catastrophic behavior of this system, we expand upon the 2.5-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic model in Cartesian coordinatesmore » to simulate the evolution of the equilibrium states of the system under different photospheric flux distributions. Our simulation results reveal that a catastrophe occurs only when the photospheric flux is not concentrated too much toward the polarity inversion line and the source regions of the bipolar field are not too weak; otherwise no catastrophe occurs. As a result, under certain photospheric conditions, a catastrophe could take place in a completely closed configuration, whereas it ceases to exist in a partially open configuration. This indicates that whether the background field is completely closed or partially open is not the only necessary condition for the existence of catastrophe, and that the photospheric conditions also play a crucial role in the catastrophic behavior of the flux rope system.« less

Psychological interventions that target sleep reduce pain catastrophizing in knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Lerman, Sheera F; Finan, Patrick H; Smith, Michael T; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A

2017-11-01

Pain catastrophizing is a significant risk factor for patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) and thus is a target for many psychological interventions for pain. This study examined if interventions targeting sleep found to be effective in improving sleep in KOA also reduce pain catastrophizing measured as a trait through the pain catastrophizing scale and measured as a daytime and nocturnal state through daily diaries. Secondary analyses were conducted on data collected as part of a randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia in patients with KOA at 5 different time points: pretreatment, midtreatment and posttreatment and at 3- and 6-month follow-up. One hundred patients diagnosed with KOA and insomnia were randomized to receive either 8 sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia or a placebo intervention of behavioral desensitization. Multilevel modeling revealed that both intervention groups showed a significant reduction pretreatment to posttreatment in all 3 measures of pain catastrophizing and maintained stable levels through the 6-month follow-up. Increased sleep continuity early in treatment (pretreatment to midtreatment), but not reductions in pain, was associated with a reduction in trait and nocturnal catastrophizing later in treatment (midtreatment to posttreatment). These results suggest that short interventions focusing on sleep can significantly reduce pain catastrophizing even in a clinical population with low baseline levels of catastrophizing, possibly through improving sleep continuity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thurman, J.

Can operating companies cost-effectively manage environmental risks, meet compliance requirements and attain financial and market-oriented goals? Yes, if top management fully supports incorporating environmental-risk issues into the corporate management system. Using evaluation tools such as risk assessment and environmental audits, operators can fully define their environment condition and risk level. Working these results, HPI companies can take action to reduce the probability of environmental accidents and mitigate adverse event effects. Adopting this top-down, proactive outlook, organizations can evade environmental catastrophes, avoid negative public image and prevent ruined reputations.

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finkelstein, M.E.; Wolf, S.; Goldman, M.; Doak, D.F.; Sievert, P.R.; Balogh, G.; Hasegawa, H.

2010-01-01

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ???2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

A test of engagement versus disengagement in catastrophe models.

PubMed

Beattie, S; Davies, M

2010-05-01

The present study explored the interactive effects of self-efficacy and increasing/decreasing task difficulty upon engagement and disengagement within a cusp-catastrophe model framework. Using a closed motor skill aiming task participants (N=60) were required to compete in conditions where task difficulty increased and then decreased (or vice versa) where they were rewarded for good performance but penalized for bad. Participants who reported low levels of self-efficacy disengage at an earlier level of task difficulty than their high self-efficacy counterparts. Furthermore, this group did not re-engage with the task until task difficulty had significantly decreased. Although task disengagement occurred with high difficulty in the high self-efficacy group, this group re-engaged in a similar manner in which they disengaged. Findings support and extend those of previous tests of catastrophe models by directly allowing for task disengagement.

Modelling of catastrophic flashing releases.

PubMed

Deaves, D M; Gilham, S; Mitchell, B H; Woodburn, P; Shepherd, A M

2001-11-16

Several low boiling point materials are stored in closed vessels at ambient temperature, using their own vapour pressure to maintain a liquid state. These materials are often toxic, flammable, or both, and thus any uncontrolled release can have potentially disastrous consequences. There are many ways in which an accidental release can occur, the most severe being due to catastrophic vessel failure. Although not the most common, this mode of failure has the potential to result in an instantaneous loss of the entire vessel inventory in the form of a rapidly expanding, two-phase, vaporising cloud. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the physical processes of existing models and of available experimental and incident data to model such scenarios. Subsequently, this has enabled the development of an improved methodology for the characterisation of the source conditions following catastrophic vessel failures.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

PubMed

Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

2017-11-01

Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs. Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study

PubMed Central

Lönnroth, Knut; Boccia, Delia

2017-01-01

Background Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed “catastrophic.” Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a “TB-specific” approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a “TB-sensitive” approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs. Methods and findings Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries’ established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million–$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million–$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million–$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million–$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. Conclusions A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households’ income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used. PMID:29112693

Observational support for the current sheet catastrophe model of substorm current disruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkhart, G. R.; Lopez, R. E.; Dusenbery, P. B.; Speiser, T. W.

1992-01-01

The principles of the current sheet catastrophe models are briefly reviewed, and observations of some of the signatures predicted by the theory are presented. The data considered here include AMPTE/CCE observations of fifteen current sheet disruption events. According to the model proposed here, the root cause of the current disruption is some process, as yet unknown, that leads to an increase in the k sub A parameter. Possible causes for the increase in k sub A are discussed.

Reliability Analysis of the Gradual Degradation of Semiconductor Devices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-20

under the heading of linear models or linear statistical models . 3 ,4 We have not used this material in this report. Assuming catastrophic failure when...assuming a catastrophic model . In this treatment we first modify our system loss formula and then proceed to the actual analysis. II. ANALYSIS OF...Failure Time 1 Ti Ti 2 T2 T2 n Tn n and are easily analyzed by simple linear regression. Since we have assumed a log normal/Arrhenius activation

Ten Important Tips in Treating a Patient with Lumbar Disc Herniation

PubMed Central

Hejrati, Hamid; Ariamanesh, Shahrara

2016-01-01

Lumbar disc herniation is a common spinal disorder that usually responds favorably to conservative treatment. In a small percentage of the patients, surgical decompression is necessary. Even though lumbar discectomy constitutes the most common and easiest spine surgery globally, adverse or even catastrophic events can occur. Appropriate patient selection and effective neural decompression constitute the most important points for better surgical outcomes and avoidance of unpleasant complications. Other important tips include timely performance of magnetic resonance imaging, correct interpretation of scan data, preoperative detection of underlying instability, exclusion of non-discogenic sciatica, determination of the main cause of clinical pathology, avoidance of the wrong side or level, and being sure that the more detailed procedure does not necessarily mean the more effective procedure. PMID:27790328

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

PubMed

Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

2018-03-01

Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

2014-12-01

Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of information about the tail risks.

The Role of Positive Traits and Pain Catastrophizing in Pain Perception

PubMed Central

Hood, Anna

2013-01-01

A variety of biological, psychological, and social factors interact to influence pain. This article focuses on two distinct, but connected, psychological factors—positive personality traits and pain catastrophizing—and their link with pain perception in healthy and clinical populations. First, we review the protective link between positive personality traits, such as optimism, hope, and self-efficacy, and pain perception. Second, we provide evidence of the well-established relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain perception and other related outcomes. Third, we outline the inverse relationship between positive traits and pain catastrophizing, and offer a model that explains the inverse link between positive traits and pain perception through lower pain catastrophizing. Finally, we discuss clinical practice recommendations based on the aforementioned relationships. PMID:23512722

Hazardous Glaciers In Switzerland: A Statistical Analysis of Inventory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, M.; Funk, M.; Wegmann, M.

Because of the recent increase in both occupation and economical activities in high mountain areas, a systematic overview of potential hazard zones of glaciers is needed to avoid the constuction of settlements and infrastructures in endangered areas in fu- ture. Historical informations about glacier disasters show that catastrophic events can happen repeatedly for the same causes and with the same dramatic consequences. Past catastrophic events are not only useful to identify potentially dangerous glaciers, but represent an indication of the kind of glacier hazards to expect for any given glacier. An inventory containing all known events having caused damages in the past has been compiled for Switzerland. Three different types of glacier hazards are distinguished , e.g. ice avalanches, glacier floods and glacier length changes.Hazardous glaciers have been identified in the alpine cantons of Bern, Grison, Uri, Vaud and Valais so far. The inventory data were analysed in terms of periodicity of different types of events as well as of damage occured.

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

PubMed

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

2015-05-01

Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

2014-10-01

To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voight, Barry

1990-12-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have contributed to the outcome. Thus the catastrophe was not caused by technological ineffectiveness or defectiveness, nor by an overwhelming eruption, or by an improbable run of bad luck, but rather by cumulative human error - by misjudgment, indecision and bureaucratic shortsightedness. Armero could have produced no victims, and therein dwells its immense tragedy.

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voight, Barry

1990-07-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize essential chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination — the limitations of predication/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available — provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency-management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have contributed to the outcome. Thus the catastrophe was not caused by technological ineffectiveness or detectiveness, nor by an overwhelming eruption, or by an improbable run of bad luck, but rather by cumulative human error — by misjudgment, indecision and bureaucratic shortsightedness. Armero could have produces no victims, and therein dwells its immense tragedy.

Stages and levels of automation in support of space teleoperations.

PubMed

Li, Huiyang; Wickens, Christopher D; Sarter, Nadine; Sebok, Angelia

2014-09-01

This study examined the impact of stage of automation on the performance and perceived workload during simulated robotic arm control tasks in routine and off-nominal scenarios. Automation varies with respect to the stage of information processing it supports and its assigned level of automation. Making appropriate choices in terms of stages and levels of automation is critical to ensure robust joint system performance. To date, this issue has been empirically studied in domains such as aviation and medicine but not extensively in the context of space operations. A total of 36 participants played the role of a payload specialist and controlled a simulated robotic arm. Participants performed fly-to tasks with two types of automation (camera recommendation and trajectory control automation) of varying stage. Tasks were performed during routine scenarios and in scenarios in which either the trajectory control automation or a hazard avoidance automation failed. Increasing the stage of automation progressively improved performance and lowered workload when the automation was reliable, but incurred severe performance costs when the system failed. The results from this study support concerns about automation-induced complacency and automation bias when later stages of automation are introduced. The benefits of such automation are offset by the risk of catastrophic outcomes when system failures go unnoticed or become difficult to recover from. A medium stage of automation seems preferable as it provides sufficient support during routine operations and helps avoid potentially catastrophic outcomes in circumstances when the automation fails.

Modeling subjective well-being in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability: the role of pain control and pain catastrophizing.

PubMed

Furrer, Angela; Michel, Gisela; Terrill, Alexandra L; Jensen, Mark P; Müller, Rachel

2017-10-23

To investigate the associations between subjective well-being and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression in individuals with physical disabilities. We hypothesized that (1) pain control and (2) pain catastrophizing mediate the effects of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. Analyses of cross-sectional data from 96 individuals diagnosed with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disease, or post-polio syndrome, with average pain intensity of ≥4 (0-10) on at least half the days in the past month. Two models tested study hypotheses using structural equation. Both models showed acceptable model fit. Pain catastrophizing significantly mediated the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity and pain interference, but not on depression. Pain control did not significantly mediate the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, or depression. Path coefficients showed significant direct effects of subjective well-being on pain control (β = 0.39), pain catastrophizing (β = -0.61), pain interference (β = -0.48; -0.42), and depression (β = -0.75; -0.78). This study supports the potential of enhancing subjective well-being and lowering pain catastrophizing for reducing pain intensity, pain interference, and depressive symptoms in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability. The findings indicate that true experiments to test for causal associations are warranted. Implications for rehabilitation The majority of individuals with physical disabilities report having persistent moderate-to-severe pain that may negatively limit daily activities and quality of life. The present cross-sectional study indicates that individuals who reported greater subjective well-being showed significantly lower pain intensity via the mediating effect of lower pain catastrophizing. Since sample size and respective power are low, these findings should be taken as first indications of potential underlying mechanisms between subjective well-being and pain outcomes that need further confirmation in longitudinal research. However, the findings suggest that treatments which enhance subjective well-being (increasing positive affect and life satisfaction, and decreasing negative affect, e.g., via positive psychology exercises) and reducing pain catastrophizing (via e.g., cognitive-behavioral therapy) may have the highest potential for benefiting individuals with disability-associated chronic pain.

Effective action for noncommutative Bianchi I model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenbaum, M.; Vergara, J. D.; Minzoni, A. A.

2013-06-01

Quantum Mechanics, as a mini-superspace of Field Theory has been assumed to provide physically relevant information on quantum processes in Field Theory. In the case of Quantum Gravity this would imply using Cosmological models to investigate quantum processes at distances of the order of the Planck scale. However because of the Stone-von Neuman Theorem, it is well known that quantization of Cosmological models by the Wheeler-DeWitt procedure in the context of a Heisenberg-Weyl group with piecewise continuous parameters leads irremediably to a volume singularity. In order to avoid this information catastrophe it has been suggested recently the need to introduce in an effective theory of the quantization some form of reticulation in 3-space. On the other hand, since in the geometry of the General Relativistic formulation of Gravitation space can not be visualized as some underlying static manifold in which the physical system evolves, it would be interesting to investigate whether the effective reticulation which removes the singularity in such simple cosmologies as the Bianchi models has a dynamical origin manifested by a noncommutativity of the generators of the Heisenberg-Weyl algebra, as would be expected from an operational point of view at the Planck length scale.

Clinimetric properties of the Nepali version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale in individuals with chronic pain

PubMed Central

Thibault, Pascal; Abbott, J Haxby; Jensen, Mark P

2018-01-01

Background Pain catastrophizing is an exaggerated negative cognitive response related to pain. It is commonly assessed using the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Translation and validation of the scale in a new language would facilitate cross-cultural comparisons of the role that pain catastrophizing plays in patient function. Purpose The aim of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the PCS into Nepali (Nepali version of PCS [PCS-NP]) and evaluate its clinimetric properties. Methods We translated, cross-culturally adapted, and performed an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the PCS-NP in a sample of adults with chronic pain (N=143). We then confirmed the resulting factor model in a separate sample (N=272) and compared this model with 1-, 2-, and 3-factor models previously identified using confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs). We also computed internal consistencies, test–retest reliabilities, standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), and limits of agreement with 95% confidence interval (LOA95%) of the PCS-NP scales. Concurrent validity with measures of depression, anxiety, and pain intensity was assessed by computing Pearson’s correlation coefficients. Results The PCS-NP was comprehensible and culturally acceptable. We extracted a two-factor solution using EFA and confirmed this model using CFAs in the second sample. Adequate fit was also found for a one-factor model and different two- and three-factor models based on prior studies. The PCS-NP scores evidenced excellent reliability and temporal stability, and demonstrated validity via moderate-to-strong associations with measures of depression, anxiety, and pain intensity. The SEM and MDC for the PCS-NP total score were 2.52 and 7.86, respectively (range of PCS scores 0–52). LOA95% was between −15.17 and +16.02 for the total PCS-NP scores. Conclusion The PCS-NP is a valid and reliable instrument to assess pain catastrophizing in Nepalese individuals with chronic pain. PMID:29430196

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madden, Michael M.

2014-01-01

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

Changes in economic status of households associated with catastrophic health expenditures for cancer in South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, Jae-Woo; Cho, Kyoung-Hee; Choi, Young; Han, Kyu-Tae; Kwon, Jeoung-A; Park, Eun-Cheol

2014-01-01

Cancer imposes significant economic challenges for individuals, families, and society. Households of cancer patients often experience income loss due to change in job status and/or excessive medical expenses. Thus, we examined whether changes in economic status for such households is affected by catastrophic health expenditures. We used the Korea Health Panel Survey (KHPS) Panel 1st-4th (2008- 2011 subjects) data and extracted records from 211 out of 5,332 households in the database for this study. To identify factors associated with catastrophic health expenditures and, in particular, to examine the relationship between change in economic status and catastrophic health expenditures, we conducted a generalized linear model analysis. Among 211 households with cancer patients, 84 (39.8%) experienced catastrophic health expenditures, while 127 (40.2%) did not show evidence of catastrophic medical costs. If a change in economic status results from a change in job status for head of household (job loss), these households are more likely to incur catastrophic health expenditure than households who have not experienced a change in job status (odds ratios (ORs)=2.17, 2.63, respectively). A comparison between households with a newly-diagnosed patient versus households with patients having lived with cancer for one or two years, showed the longer patients had cancer, the more likely their households incurred catastrophic medical costs (OR=1.78, 1.36, respectively). Change in economic status of households in which the cancer patient was the head of household was associated with a greater likelihood that the household would incur catastrophic health costs. It is imperative that the Korean government connect health and labor policies in order to develop economic programs to assist households with cancer patients.

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

2010-01-01

Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

Aeroacoustic catastrophes: upstream cusp beaming in Lilley's equation.

PubMed

Stone, J T; Self, R H; Howls, C J

2017-05-01

The downstream propagation of high-frequency acoustic waves from a point source in a subsonic jet obeying Lilley's equation is well known to be organized around the so-called 'cone of silence', a fold catastrophe across which the amplitude may be modelled uniformly using Airy functions. Here we show that acoustic waves not only unexpectedly propagate upstream, but also are organized at constant distance from the point source around a cusp catastrophe with amplitude modelled locally by the Pearcey function. Furthermore, the cone of silence is revealed to be a cross-section of a swallowtail catastrophe. One consequence of these discoveries is that the peak acoustic field upstream is not only structurally stable but also at a similar level to the known downstream field. The fine structure of the upstream cusp is blurred out by distributions of symmetric acoustic sources, but peak upstream acoustic beaming persists when asymmetries are introduced, from either arrays of discrete point sources or perturbed continuum ring source distributions. These results may pose interesting questions for future novel jet-aircraft engine designs where asymmetric source distributions arise.

Modeling the net flows of U.S. mutual funds with stochastic catastrophe theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, A.

2006-04-01

Using the recent work of Hartelman, van der Maas, and Wagenmakers, we demonstrate the use of invariant stochastic catastrophe models in finance for modeling net flows (the difference between purchases and redemptions of fund shares) of U.S. mutual funds. We validate Goetzmann et al. and others' work concerning the importance of sentiment variables on stock fund flows. We also answer some of the questions Goetzmann et al. and Brown et al. pose at the end of their respective papers. We end with possible experiments for experimental economists and sociophysicists.

Catastrophic health expenditure on acute coronary events in Asia: a prospective study.

PubMed

Jan, Stephen; Lee, Stephen W-L; Sawhney, Jitendra P S; Ong, Tiong K; Chin, Chee Tang; Kim, Hyo-Soo; Krittayaphong, Rungroj; Nhan, Vo T; Itoh, Yohji; Huo, Yong

2016-03-01

To estimate out-of-pocket costs and the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure in people admitted to hospital with acute coronary syndromes in Asia. Participants were enrolled between June 2011 and May 2012 into this observational study in China, India, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Sites were required to enrol a minimum of 10 consecutive participants who had been hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as out-of-pocket costs of initial hospitalization > 30% of annual baseline household income, and it was assessed six weeks after discharge. We assessed associations between health expenditure and age, sex, diagnosis of the index coronary event and health insurance status of the participant, using logistic regression models. Of 12,922 participants, 9370 (73%) had complete data on expenditure. The mean out-of-pocket cost was 3237 United States dollars. Catastrophic health expenditure was reported by 66% (1984/3007) of those without insurance versus 52% (3296/6366) of those with health insurance (P < 0.05). The occurrence of catastrophic expenditure ranged from 80% (1055/1327) in uninsured and 56% (3212/5692) of insured participants in China, to 0% (0/41) in Malaysia. Large variation exists across Asia in catastrophic health expenditure resulting from hospitalization for acute coronary syndromes. While insurance offers some protection, substantial numbers of people with health insurance still incur financial catastrophe.

Socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment associated with non-communicable diseases in urban Hanoi, Vietnam.

PubMed

Kien, Vu Duy; Van Minh, Hoang; Giang, Kim Bao; Dao, Amy; Tuan, Le Thanh; Ng, Nawi

2016-10-13

The catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment indices offer guidance for developing appropriate health policies and intervention programs to decrease financial inequity. This study assesses socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in relation to self-reported non-communicable diseases (NCD) in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to March 2013 in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. We estimated catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment using information from 492 slum household and 528 non-slum households. We calculated concentration indexes to assess socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment. Factors associated with catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment were modelled using logistic regression analysis. The poor households in both slum and non-slum areas were at higher risk of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure, while only the poor households in slum areas were at higher risk of impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Households with at least one member reporting an NCD were significantly more likely to face catastrophic health expenditure (odds ratio [OR] = 2.4; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.8-4.0) and impoverishment (OR = 2.3; 95 % CI, 1.1-6.3) compared to households without NCDs. In addition, households in slum areas, with people age 60 years and above, and belonging to the poorest socioeconomic group were significantly associated with increased catastrophic health expenditure, while only households that lived in slum areas, and belonging to the poor or poorest socioeconomic groups were significantly associated with increased impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Financial interventions to prevent catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment should target poor households, especially those with family members suffering from NCDs, with older members and those located in slum areas in Hanoi Vietnam. Potential interventions derived from this study include targeting and monitoring of health insurance enrolment, and developing a specialized NCD service package for Vietnam's social health insurance program.

Mathematical, Constitutive and Numerical Modelling of Catastrophic Landslides and Related Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M.; Fernández Merodo, J. A.; Herreros, M. I.; Mira, P.; González, E.; Haddad, B.; Quecedo, M.; Tonni, L.; Drempetic, V.

2008-02-01

Mathematical and numerical models are a fundamental tool for predicting the behaviour of geostructures and their interaction with the environment. The term “mathematical model” refers to a mathematical description of the more relevant physical phenomena which take place in the problem being analyzed. It is indeed a wide area including models ranging from the very simple ones for which analytical solutions can be obtained to those more complicated requiring the use of numerical approximations such as the finite element method. During the last decades, mathematical, constitutive and numerical models have been very much improved and today their use is widespread both in industry and in research. One special case is that of fast catastrophic landslides, for which simplified methods are not able to provide accurate solutions in many occasions. Moreover, many finite element codes cannot be applied for propagation of the mobilized mass. The purpose of this work is to present an overview of the different alternative mathematical and numerical models which can be applied to both the initiation and propagation mechanisms of fast catastrophic landslides and other related problems such as waves caused by landslides.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump ismore » here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.« less

Does changing pain-related knowledge reduce pain and improve function through changes in catastrophizing?

PubMed

Lee, Hopin; McAuley, James H; Hübscher, Markus; Kamper, Steven J; Traeger, Adrian C; Moseley, G Lorimer

2016-04-01

Evidence from randomized controlled studies shows that reconceptualizing pain improves patients' knowledge of pain biology, reduces catastrophizing thoughts, and improves pain and function. However, causal relationships between these variables remain untested. It is hypothesized that reductions in catastrophizing could mediate the relationship between improvements in pain knowledge and improvements in pain and function. To test this causal mechanism, we conducted longitudinal mediation analyses on a cohort of 799 patients who were exposed to a pain education intervention. Patients provided responses to the neurophysiology of pain questionnaire, catastrophic thoughts about pain scale, visual analogue pain scale, and the patient specific functional scale, at baseline, 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up. With adjustment for potential confounding variables, an improvement in pain biology knowledge was significantly associated with a reduction in pain intensity (total effect = -2.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.96 to -1.44). However, this effect was not mediated by a reduction in catastrophizing (indirect effect = -0.16, 95% CI = -0.36 to 0.02). This might be due to a weak, nonsignificant relationship between changes in catastrophizing and pain intensity (path b = 0.19, 95% CI = -0.03 to 0.41). Similar trends were found in models with function as the outcome. Our findings indicate that change in catastrophizing did not mediate the effect of pain knowledge acquisition on change in pain or function. The strength of this conclusion is moderated, however, if patient-clinician relational factors are conceptualized as a consequence of catastrophizing, rather than a cause.

Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roda, Manuel; Kleinhans, Maarten G.; Zegers, Tanja E.; Oosthoek, Jelmer H. P.

2014-07-01

Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with the 2.5 Ga stage of the Ares Vallis formation. The water volume and formative time scale required to carve the Aram channels indicate that a single, rapid (maximum tens of days) and catastrophic (flood volume of 9.3 × 104 km3) event carved the outflow channel. We conclude that a sub-ice lake collapse model can best explain the features of the Aram Chaos Valley system as well as the time scale required for its formation.

Incorporating Family Function into Chronic Pain Disability: The Role of Catastrophizing

PubMed Central

Akbari, Fatemeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Khatibi, Ali; Vervoort, Tine

2016-01-01

Background. Observers' responses to pain are recently investigated to more comprehensively explain chronic pain (CP) and disability. However, the role of family context, defined as interference in roles, communication, and problem-solving, and how (i.e., through which mechanisms) these variables contribute to CP related disability have yet to be examined. Objectives. The aim of the present study is to examine family context in relationship to pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and depression and its role in understanding CP disability. Three different models were examined. Methods. A total sample of 142 patients with musculoskeletal chronic pain was recruited to examine the role of fear of movement, pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and depression in relationship to family functioning as predictors of disability. Results. Findings indicated that two models showed acceptable fit, but one of them revealed superior fit indices. Results of the model with superior fit indices indicated that family dysfunction may contribute to catastrophic thinking, which, in turn, contributes to patients' disability through increasing fear of movement and depression. Discussion. The current study provides further support for the notion that the impact of emotional and cognitive variables upon CP-related disability can be better understood when we consider the social context of pain patients and family function in particular. PMID:27445620

Incorporating Family Function into Chronic Pain Disability: The Role of Catastrophizing.

PubMed

Akbari, Fatemeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Khatibi, Ali; Vervoort, Tine

2016-01-01

Background. Observers' responses to pain are recently investigated to more comprehensively explain chronic pain (CP) and disability. However, the role of family context, defined as interference in roles, communication, and problem-solving, and how (i.e., through which mechanisms) these variables contribute to CP related disability have yet to be examined. Objectives. The aim of the present study is to examine family context in relationship to pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and depression and its role in understanding CP disability. Three different models were examined. Methods. A total sample of 142 patients with musculoskeletal chronic pain was recruited to examine the role of fear of movement, pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and depression in relationship to family functioning as predictors of disability. Results. Findings indicated that two models showed acceptable fit, but one of them revealed superior fit indices. Results of the model with superior fit indices indicated that family dysfunction may contribute to catastrophic thinking, which, in turn, contributes to patients' disability through increasing fear of movement and depression. Discussion. The current study provides further support for the notion that the impact of emotional and cognitive variables upon CP-related disability can be better understood when we consider the social context of pain patients and family function in particular.

Airway management in laryngotracheal injuries from blunt neck trauma in children.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Debnath; Agarwal, Rita; Bajaj, Lalit; Teng, Sarena N; Prager, Jeremy D

2016-02-01

Pediatric laryngotracheal injuries from blunt neck trauma are extremely rare, but can be potentially catastrophic. Early diagnosis and skillful airway management is critical in avoiding significant morbidity and mortality associated with these cases. We present a case of a patient who suffered a complete tracheal transection and cervical spine fracture following a clothesline injury to the anterior neck. A review of the mechanisms of injury, clinical presentation, initial airway management, and anesthetic considerations in laryngotracheal injuries from blunt neck trauma in children are presented. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Saphenous Vein Graft Perforation During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention - A Nightmare to be Avoided.

PubMed

Deora, Surender; Shah, Sanjay C; Patel, Tejas M

2015-01-01

Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) of saphenous vein grafts (SVGs) is challenging and is associated with adverse short- and long-term clinical outcome as compared to native coronary arteries. SVG perforation is rare but catastrophic and needs immediate attention. Various factors predisposing for SVG perforation are old degenerated graft, ulcerated plaque, severe fibrotic, or calcified lesion necessitating high pressure balloon or stent inflation, use of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) or other atheroablative devices. Management includes prolonged balloon occlusion, reversal of anticoagulation, use of covered stent, and emergency pericadiocentesis if required.

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curreri, Peter A.

2010-01-01

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curreri, Peter A.

2010-01-01

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curreri, Peter A.

2010-01-01

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Catastrophe modelling in the biological sciences.

PubMed

Deakin, M A

1990-03-01

Catastrophe Theory was developed in an attempt to provide a form of Mathematics particularly apt for applications in the biological sciences. It was claimed that while it could be applied in the more conventional "physical" way, it could also be applied in a new "metaphysical" way, derived from the Structuralism of Saussure in Linguistics and Lévi-Strauss in Anthropology. Since those early beginnings there have been many attempts to apply Catastrophe Theory to Biology, but these hopes cannot be said to have been fully realised. This paper will document and classify the work that has been done. It will be argued that, like other applied Mathematics, applied Catastrophe Theory works best where the underlying laws are securely known and precisely quantified, requiring those same guarantees as does any other branch of Mathematics when it confronts a real-life situation.

Teeth: Among Nature's Most Durable Biocomposites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawn, Brian R.; Lee, James J.-W.; Chai, Herzl

2010-08-01

This paper addresses the durability of natural teeth from a materials perspective. Teeth are depicted as smart biocomposites, highly resistant to cumulative deformation and fracture. Favorable morphological features of teeth at both macroscopic and microscopic levels contribute to an innate damage tolerance. Damage modes are activated readily within the brittle enamel coat but are contained from spreading catastrophically into the vulnerable tooth interior in sustained occlusal loading. Although tooth enamel contains a multitude of microstructural defects that can act as sources of fracture, substantial overloads are required to drive any developing cracks to ultimate failure—nature's strategy is to contain damage rather than avoid it. Tests on model glass-shell systems simulating the basic elements of the tooth enamel/dentin layer structure help to identify important damage modes. Fracture and deformation mechanics provide a basis for analyzing critical conditions for each mode, in terms of characteristic tooth dimensions and materials properties. Comparative tests on extracted human and animal teeth confirm the validity of the model test approach and point to new research directions. Implications in biomechanics, especially as they relate to dentistry and anthropology, are outlined.

Disrupted Self-Perception in People With Chronic Low Back Pain. Further Evaluation of the Fremantle Back Awareness Questionnaire.

PubMed

Wand, Benedict Martin; Catley, Mark Jon; Rabey, Martin Ian; O'Sullivan, Peter Bruce; O'Connell, Neil Edward; Smith, Anne Julia

2016-09-01

Several lines of evidence suggest that body perception is altered in people with chronic back pain. Maladaptive perceptual awareness of the back might contribute to the pain experience as well as serve as a target for treatment. The Fremantle Back Awareness Questionnaire (FreBAQ) is a simple questionnaire recently developed to assess back-specific altered self-perception. The aims of this study were to present the outcomes of a comprehensive evaluation of the questionnaire's psychometric properties and explore the potential relationships between body perception, nociceptive sensitivity, distress, and beliefs about back pain and the contribution these factors might play in explaining pain and disability. Two hundred fifty-one people with chronic back pain completed the questionnaire as well as a battery of clinical tests. The Rasch model was used to explore the questionnaires' psychometric properties and correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were used to explore the relationship between altered body perception and clinical status. The FreBAQ appears unidimensional with no redundant items, has minimal ceiling and floor effects, acceptable internal consistency, was functional on the category rating scale, and was not biased by demographic or clinical variables. FreBAQ scores were correlated with sensitivity, distress, and beliefs and were uniquely associated with pain and disability. Several lines of evidence suggest that body perception might be disturbed in people with chronic low back pain, possibly contributing to the condition and offering a potential target for treatment. The FreBAQ was developed as a quick and simple way of measuring back-specific body perception in people with chronic low back pain. The questionnaire appears to be a psychometrically sound way of assessing altered self-perception. The level of altered self-perception is positively correlated with pain intensity and disability as well as showing associations with psychological distress, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance beliefs, and lumbar pressure pain threshold. In this sample, it appears that altered self-perception might be a more important determinant of clinical severity than psychological distress, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance beliefs, or lumbar pressure pain threshold. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decomposing inequality in financial protection situation in Iran after implementing the health reform plan: What does the evidence show based on national survey of households' budget?

PubMed

Moradi, Tayebeh; Naghdi, Seyran; Brown, Heather; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Mobinizadeh, Mohammadreza

2018-03-24

Lack of well-designed healthcare financing mechanisms and high level of out-of-pocket payments in Iran over the last decades led to implementing Health Transformation Plan, in 2014. This study aims to decompose inequality in financial protection of Iranian households after the implementation of the Health Transformation Plan. The data of Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) Survey on Rural and Urban Households Income-Expenditure in 2015 to 2016 were used. The headcount ratio of catastrophic health expenditures was calculated. The corrected concentration index was estimated. The role of contributors on inequality in the exposure to catastrophic health expenditures among poor and nonpoor households was calculated using Farelie's model. The headcount ratio of the exposure to catastrophic health expenditures in urban and rural households was 4.58% and 5.65%, respectively. The difference in households' income levels was the main contributor in explaining the inequality in facing catastrophic health expenditures between poor and nonpoor households. Even after implementing the HTP, the headcount ratios of catastrophic health expenditure are still considerable. The results show that income is the greatest determinant of inequality in facing catastrophic health expenditure and in urban households. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance in Enhancing Better Accessibility and Lowering the Chance of Having Financial Catastrophe Due to Health Service Utilization: A Case Study of Savannakhet Province, Laos.

PubMed

Bodhisane, Somdeth; Pongpanich, Sathirakorn

2017-07-01

The Lao population mostly relies on out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services. This study aims to determine the role of community-based health insurance in making health care services accessible and in preventing financial catastrophe resulting from personal payment for inpatient services. A cross-sectional study design was applied. Data collection involved 126 insured and 126 uninsured households in identical study sites. Two logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the probability of hospitalization and financial catastrophe that occurred in both insured and uninsured households within the previous year. The findings show that insurance status does not significantly improve accessibility and financial protection against catastrophic expenditure. The reason is relatively simple, as catastrophic health expenditure refers to a total out-of-pocket payment equal to or more than 40% of household income minus subsistence. When household income declines as a result of inability to work due to illness, the 40% threshold is quickly reached. Despite this, results suggest that insured households are not significantly better off under community-based health insurance. However, compared to uninsured households, insured households do have better accessibility and a lower probability of reaching the financial catastrophe threshold.

Machine remaining useful life prediction: An integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chaochao; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

2012-04-01

Machine prognosis can be considered as the generation of long-term predictions that describe the evolution in time of a fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem so that timely maintenance can be performed to avoid catastrophic failures. This paper proposes an integrated RUL prediction method using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and high-order particle filtering, which forecasts the time evolution of the fault indicator and estimates the probability density function (pdf) of RUL. The ANFIS is trained and integrated in a high-order particle filter as a model describing the fault progression. The high-order particle filter is used to estimate the current state and carry out p-step-ahead predictions via a set of particles. These predictions are used to estimate the RUL pdf. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated via the real-world data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 helicopter planetary gear plate. The results demonstrate that it outperforms both the conventional ANFIS predictor and the particle-filter-based predictor where the fault growth model is a first-order model that is trained via the ANFIS.

Preliminary Experimental Results for Charge Drag in a Simulated Low Earth Orbit Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azema-Rovira, Monica

Interest in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment is growing in the science community as well as in the private sector. The number of spacecraft launched in these altitudes (150 - 700 km) keeps growing, and this region is accumulating space debris. In this scenario, the precise location of all LEO objects is a key factor to avoid catastrophic collisions and to safely perform station-keeping maneuvers. The detailed study of the atmospheric models in LEO can enhance the disturbances forces calculation of an orbiting object. Recent numerical studies indicate that one of the biggest non-conservative forces on a spacecraft is underestimated, the charge drag phenomenon. Validating these numerical models experimentally, will help to improve the numerical models for future spacecraft mission design. For this reason, the motivation of this thesis is to characterize a plasma source to later be used for charged drag measurements. The characterization has been done at the University of Colorado Colorado Springs in the Chamber for Atmospheric and Orbital Space Simulation. In the characterization process, a nano-Newton Thrust Stand has been characterized as a plasma diagnosis tool and compared with Langmuir Probe data.

Risk and Resilience in Pediatric Chronic Pain: Exploring the Protective Role of Optimism.

PubMed

Cousins, Laura A; Cohen, Lindsey L; Venable, Claudia

2015-10-01

Fear of pain and pain catastrophizing are prominent risk factors for pediatric chronic pain-related maladjustment. Although resilience has largely been ignored in the pediatric pain literature, prior research suggests that optimism might benefit youth and can be learned. We applied an adult chronic pain risk-resilience model to examine the interplay of risk factors and optimism on functioning outcomes in youth with chronic pain. Participants included 58 children and adolescents (8-17 years) attending a chronic pain clinic and their parents. Participants completed measures of fear of pain, pain catastrophizing, optimism, disability, and quality of life. Consistent with the literature, pain intensity, fear of pain, and catastrophizing predicted functioning. Optimism was a unique predictor of quality of life, and optimism contributed to better functioning by minimizing pain-related fear and catastrophizing. Optimism might be protective and offset the negative influence of fear of pain and catastrophizing on pain-related functioning. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Catastrophic health expenditure on acute coronary events in Asia: a prospective study

PubMed Central

Lee, Stephen W-L; Sawhney, Jitendra PS; Ong, Tiong K; Chin, Chee Tang; Kim, Hyo-Soo; Krittayaphong, Rungroj; Nhan, Vo T; Itoh, Yohji; Huo, Yong

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate out-of-pocket costs and the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure in people admitted to hospital with acute coronary syndromes in Asia. Methods Participants were enrolled between June 2011 and May 2012 into this observational study in China, India, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Sites were required to enrol a minimum of 10 consecutive participants who had been hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as out-of-pocket costs of initial hospitalization > 30% of annual baseline household income, and it was assessed six weeks after discharge. We assessed associations between health expenditure and age, sex, diagnosis of the index coronary event and health insurance status of the participant, using logistic regression models. Findings Of 12 922 participants, 9370 (73%) had complete data on expenditure. The mean out-of-pocket cost was 3237 United States dollars. Catastrophic health expenditure was reported by 66% (1984/3007) of those without insurance versus 52% (3296/6366) of those with health insurance (P < 0.05). The occurrence of catastrophic expenditure ranged from 80% (1055/1327) in uninsured and 56% (3212/5692) of insured participants in China, to 0% (0/41) in Malaysia. Conclusion Large variation exists across Asia in catastrophic health expenditure resulting from hospitalization for acute coronary syndromes. While insurance offers some protection, substantial numbers of people with health insurance still incur financial catastrophe. PMID:26966330

Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

2017-11-01

This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

Effect of porcelain and enamel thickness on porcelain veneer failure loads in vitro.

PubMed

Ge, Chunling; Green, Chad C; Sederstrom, Dalene; McLaren, Edward A; White, Shane N

2014-05-01

Bonded porcelain veneers are widely used esthetic restorations. Although high success and survival rates have been reported, failures occur. Fracture is the most common failure mode. Fractures range from incomplete cracks to the catastrophic. Minimally invasive or thin partial veneers have gained popularity. The aim of this study was to measure the influences of porcelain veneer thickness and enamel substrate thickness on the loads needed to cause the initial fracture and catastrophic failure of porcelain veneers. Model discoid porcelain veneer specimens of varying thickness were bonded to the flattened facial surfaces of incisors, artificially aged, and loaded to failure with a small sphere. Individual fracture events were identified and analyzed statistically and fractographically. Fracture events included initial Hertzian cracks, intermediate radial cracks, and catastrophic gross failure. Increased porcelain, enamel, and their combined thickness had like effects in substantially raising resistance to catastrophic failure but also slightly decreased resistance to initial Hertzian cracking. Fractographic and numerical data demonstrated that porcelain and tooth enamel behaved in a remarkably similar manner. As porcelain thickness, enamel thickness, and their combined thickness increased, the loads needed to produce initial fracture and catastrophic failure rose substantially. Porcelain veneers withstood considerable damage before catastrophic failure. Increased enamel thickness, increased porcelain thickness, and increased combined enamel and porcelain thickness all profoundly raised the failure loads necessary to cause catastrophic failure. Enamel and feldspathic porcelain behaved in a like manner. Surface contact damage occurred initially. Final catastrophic failure followed flexural radial cracking. Bonded porcelain veneers were highly damage tolerant. Copyright © 2014 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models that could quantify risk and provide a view of risk to support design and pricing of parametric disaster risk financing mechanisms. The third stage was to evaluate the usability of data sources and catastrophe models, and to develop index prototypes to outline how data and catastrophe models could be combined using local, regional and global data sources. Finally, the project identified priorities for investment to support the collection, analysis and evaluation of natural catastrophes in order to support disaster risk financing.

Cognitive and affective mechanisms of pain and fatigue in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Arewasikporn, Anne; Turner, Aaron P; Alschuler, Kevin N; Hughes, Abbey J; Ehde, Dawn M

2018-06-01

To examine the extent to which pain catastrophizing, fatigue catastrophizing, positive affect, and negative affect simultaneously mediated the associations between common symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS; i.e., pain, fatigue) and impact on daily life, depressive symptoms, and resilience. Participants were community-dwelling adults with MS (N = 163) reporting chronic pain, fatigue, and/or moderate depressive symptoms. Multiple mediation path analysis was used to model potential mediators of pain and fatigue separately, using baseline data from a randomized controlled trial comparing two symptom self-management interventions. In the pain model, pain catastrophizing was a mediator of pain intensity with pain interference and depression. Negative affect was a mediator of pain intensity with depression and resilience. In the fatigue model, fatigue catastrophizing was a mediator of fatigue intensity with fatigue impact and depression. Positive affect was a mediator of fatigue intensity with depression and resilience. These findings provide preliminary support for the presence of differential effects of cognitive-affective mediators and suggest potential targets for psychological interventions based on an individual's clinical presentation. The differential mediating effects also support the inclusion of both positive and negative aspects of psychological health in models of pain and fatigue, which would not be otherwise apparent if negative constructs were examined in isolation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to utilize a multivariate path analysis approach to examine cognitive-affective mediators of pain and fatigue in MS, while also examining positive and negative constructs concurrently. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Economics, socio-ecological resilience and ecosystem services.

PubMed

Farley, Joshua; Voinov, Alexey

2016-12-01

The economic process transforms raw materials and energy into economic products and waste. On a finite planet, continued economic growth threatens to surpass critical socio-ecological thresholds and undermine ecosystem services upon which humans and all other species depend. For most systems, whether such thresholds exist, where they lie and whether they are reversible cannot be known with certainty until they are crossed. We argue that our central economic challenge is to maintain the resilience of the current socio-ecological regime. We must reduce net impacts of economic activity to avoid critical ecological thresholds while ensuring economic necessities. Conventional economists pursue continuous growth as the central goal of economic activity, and assume that the price mechanism and technological breakthroughs ensure system resilience. Unfortunately, the price mechanism fails to address ecological thresholds because it ignores unowned ecosystem services, and fails to address economic thresholds because it ignores the needs of the poorest individuals, who live on the edge of them. Panarchy theory suggests that systems go through a cycle of growth, conservation, release and renewal. Managing a subsystem too long for growth or conservation-which many consider to be the goal of sustainability-actually threatens to collapse the higher-level system upon which that subsystem depends. Black Swan theory suggests we should seek to reduce the risk of catastrophic thresholds and promote the likelihood of technological breakthroughs. Economic degrowth, or planned release, is required to avoid catastrophic collapse. At the same time, publicly funded, open source information can help stimulate the technological breakthroughs economists count on to ensure resilience. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Household catastrophic health expenditure: evidence from Georgia and its policy implications

PubMed Central

Gotsadze, George; Zoidze, Akaki; Rukhadze, Natia

2009-01-01

Background To quantify extent of catastrophic household health expenditures, determine factors influencing it and estimate Fairness in Financial Contribution (FFC) index in Georgia to establish the baseline for expected reforms and contribute to the design and fine-tuning of the major reforms in health care financing initiated by the government mid-2007. Methods The research is based on the nationally representative Health Care Utilization and Expenditure survey conducted during May-June 2007, prior to preparing for new phase of implementation for the health care financing reforms. Households' catastrophic health expenditures were estimated according to the methodology proposed by WHO – Ke Xu [1]. A logistic regression (logit) model was used to predict probability of catastrophic health expenditure occurrence. Results In Georgia between 2000 and 2007 access to care for poor has improved slightly and the share of households facing catastrophic health expenditures have seemingly increased from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.7% in 2007. However, this variance may be associated with the methodological differences of the respective surveys from which the analysis were derived. The high level of the catastrophic health expenditure may be associated with the low share of prepayment in national health expenditure, adequate availability of services and a high level of poverty in the country. Major factors determining the financial catastrophe related to ill health were hospitalization, household members with chronic illness and poverty status of the household. The FFC for Georgia appears to have improved since 2004. Conclusion Reducing the prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure is a policy objective of the government, which can be achieved by focusing on increased financial protection offered to poor and expanding government financed benefits for poor and chronically ill by including and expanding inpatient coverage and adding drug benefits. This policy recommendation may also be relevant for other Low and Middle Income countries with similar levels of out of pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditures. PMID:19400939

Influence of educational attainment on pain intensity and disability in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis: mediation effect of pain catastrophizing.

PubMed

Kim, Ho-Joong; Kim, Sung-Chan; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

2014-05-01

Level IV, prospective case series. To investigate the influence of educational attainment on the level of pain intensity and disability in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) and determine how coping behavior, such as catastrophizing, may mediate the association between educational attainment and clinical impairments. Educational attainment has been thought to influence disability caused by chronic painful disease, mediated by pain behavior or a coping strategy such as catastrophizing. Nevertheless, little is known about the role of educational attainment on pain intensity or disability related with LSS. A total of 155 patients who were diagnosed as degenerative LSS participated in the study. Data on detailed medical history, physical examination, and series of questionnaires were collected, including pain catastrophizing scale, Oswestry Disability Index, and visual analogue pain scale for back and leg pain. For measures of socioeconomic status, educational attainment and occupation were assessed. Radiological analysis was performed using magnetic resonance images and computed tomographic scans. After adjustment of covariates, multivariate regression analysis was used to assess each component of the proposed mediation models among visual analogue pain scale for back/leg pain, Oswestry Disability Index, the level of education, occupation and pain catastrophizing scale. Mediation was also assessed by the bootstrapping technique. Educational attainment was negatively correlated with pain intensity, disability, and catastrophizing. Pain catastrophizing were also significantly correlated with disability and pain intensity for back/leg pain in the patients with LSS. In the relationship among variables, the mediation analysis with bootstrapping clearly showed the role of catastrophizing in the mediation between visual analogue pain scale for back pain/leg pain, Oswestry Disability Index, and the level of education. This study demonstrated that lower educational attainment was associated with increased pain intensity and disability in patients with LSS, which was mediated by the coping mechanism, catastrophizing.

What Is the Price of Catastrophic Wildfire?

Treesearch

David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; Thomas P. Holmes

2001-01-01

We modeled and analyzed the economic impacts of the six weeks of large, catastrophic wild-fires in northeastern Florida in June and July 1998, among Florida's most devastating in recent history. The result of the unusually strong El Níño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1998, the Florida wildfires produced economic impacts of at least $600 million, similar in...

Recent Developments of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocke, S.; Shin, D. W.; Annane, B.

2016-12-01

Catastrophe models are used extensively by the insurance industry to estimate losses due to natural hazards such as hurricanes and earthquakes. In the state of Florida, primary insurers for hurricane damage to residential properties are required by law to use certified catastrophe models to establish their premiums and capital reserves. The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) is one of only five certified catastrophe models in Florida, and the only non-commercial model certified. The FPHLM has been funded through the Florida Legislature and is overseen by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR). The model was developed by a consortium of universities and private consultants primary located in Florida, but includes some partners outside of the state. The FPHLM has met Florida requirements since 2006 and has undergone continuous evolution to maintain state-of-the-art capabilities and changes in state requirements established by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Recently the model has been undergoing major enhancement to incorporate damage due to flooding, which not only includes hurricane floods but floods due to all potential natural hazards. This work is being done in anticipation of future changes in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that will bring private insurers to the flood market. The model will incorporate a surge model as well as an inland flood model. We will present progress on these recent enhancements along with additional progress of the model.

The role of emotions on pacing strategies and performance in middle and long duration sport events.

PubMed

Baron, B; Moullan, F; Deruelle, F; Noakes, T D

2011-05-01

Thepacing strategy may be defined as the process in which the total energy expenditure during exercise is regulated on a moment-to-moment basis in order to ensure that the exercise bout can be completed in a minimum time and without a catastrophic biological failure. Experienced athletes develop a stable template of the power outputs they are able to sustain for different durations of exercise, but it is not known how they originally develop this template or how that template changes with training and experience. While it is understood that the athlete's physiological state makes an important contribution to this process, there has been much less interest in the contribution that the athlete's emotional status makes. The aim of this review is to evaluate the literature of physiological, neurophysiological and perceptual responses during exercise in order to propose a complex model interpretation of this process which may be a critical factor determining success in middle- and long-duration sporting competitions. We describe unconscious/physiological and conscious/emotional mechanisms of control, the focus of which are to ensure that exercise terminates before catastrophic failure occurs in any bodily system. We suggest that training sessions teach the athlete to select optimal pacing strategies by associating a level of emotion with the ability to maintain that pace for exercise of different durations. That pacing strategy is then adopted in future events. Finally, we propose novel perspectives to maximise performance and to avoid overtraining by paying attention also to the emotional state in training process.

Training model for control of an internal carotid artery injury during transsphenoidal surgery.

PubMed

Muto, Jun; Carrau, Ricardo L; Oyama, Kenichi; Otto, Brad A; Prevedello, Daniel M

2017-01-01

As the adoption of endoscopic endonasal approaches (EEA) continues to proliferate, increasing numbers of internal carotid artery (ICA) injuries are reported. The objective of this study was to develop a synthetic ICA injury-training model that could mimic this clinical scenario and be portable, repeatable, reproducible, and without risk of biological contamination. Based on computed tomography of a human head, we constructed a synthetic model using selective laser sintering with polyamide nylon and glass beads. Subsequently, the model was connected to a pulsatile pump using 6-mm silicon tubing. The pump maintains a pulsatile flow of an artificial blood-like fluid at a variable pressure to simulate heart beats. Volunteer surgeons with different levels of training and experience were provided simulation training sessions with the models. Pre- and posttraining questionnaires were completed by each of the participants. Pre- and posttraining questionnaires suggest that repeated simulation sessions improve the surgical skills and self-confidence of trainees. This ICA injury model is portable; reproducible; and avoids ethical, biohazard, religious, and legal problems associated with cadaveric models. A synthetic ICA injury model for EEA allows recurring training that may improve the surgeon's ability to maintain endoscopic visualization, control catastrophic bleeding, decrease psychomotor stress, and develop effective team strategies to achieve hemostasis. NA Laryngoscope, 127:38-43, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

The economic burden of pediatric gastroenteritis to Bolivian families: a cross-sectional study of correlates of catastrophic cost and overall cost burden.

PubMed

Burke, Rachel M; Smith, Emily R; Dahl, Rebecca Moritz; Rebolledo, Paulina A; Calderón, Maria del Carmen; Cañipa, Beatriz; Chavez, Edgar; Pinto, Rolando; Tamayo, Luis; Terán, Carlos; Veizaga, Angel; Zumaran, Remy; Iñiguez, Volga; Leon, Juan S

2014-06-24

Worldwide, acute gastroenteritis causes substantial morbidity and mortality in children less than five years of age. In Bolivia, which has one of the lower GDPs in South America, 16% of child deaths can be attributed to diarrhea, and the costs associated with diarrhea can weigh heavily on patient families. To address this need, the study goal was to identify predictors of cost burden (diarrhea-related costs incurred as a percentage of annual income) and catastrophic cost (cost burden ≥ 1% of annual household income). From 2007 to 2009, researchers interviewed caregivers (n = 1,107) of pediatric patients (<5 years old) seeking treatment for diarrhea in six Bolivian hospitals. Caregivers were surveyed on demographics, clinical symptoms, direct (e.g. medication, consult fees), and indirect (e.g. lost wages) costs. Multivariate regression models (n = 551) were used to assess relationships of covariates to the outcomes of cost burden (linear model) and catastrophic cost (logistic model). We determined that cost burden and catastrophic cost shared the same significant (p < 0.05) predictors. In the logistic model that also controlled for child sex, child age, household size, rural residence, transportations taken to the current visit, whether the child presented with complications, and whether this was the child's first episode of diarrhea, significant predictors of catastrophic cost included outpatient status (OR 0.16, 95% CI [0.07, 0.37]); seeking care at a private hospital (OR 4.12, 95% CI [2.30, 7.41]); having previously sought treatment for this diarrheal episode (OR 3.92, 95% CI [1.64, 9.35]); and the number of days the child had diarrhea prior to the current visit (OR 1.14, 95% CI [1.05, 1.24]). Our analysis highlights the economic impact of pediatric diarrhea from the familial perspective and provides insight into potential areas of intervention to reduce associated economic burden.

Non-evidence-based policy: how effective is China's new cooperative medical scheme in reducing medical impoverishment?

PubMed

Yip, Winnie; Hsiao, William C

2009-01-01

In recent years, many lower to middle income countries have looked to insurance as a means to protect their populations from medical impoverishment. In 2003, the Chinese government initiated the New Cooperative Medical System (NCMS), a government-run voluntary insurance program for its rural population. The prevailing model of NCMS combines medical savings accounts with high-deductible catastrophic hospital insurance (MSA/Catastrophic). To assess the effectiveness of this approach in reducing medical impoverishment, we used household survey data from 2006 linked to claims records of health expenditures to simulate the effect of MSA/Catastrophic on reducing the share of individuals falling below the poverty line (headcount), and the amount by which household resources fall short of the poverty line (poverty gap) due to medical expenses. We compared the effects of MSA/Catastrophic to Rural Mutual Health Care (RMHC), an experimental model that provides first dollar coverage for primary care, hospital services and drugs with a similar premium but a lower ceiling. Our results show that RMHC is more effective at reducing medical impoverishment than NCMS. Under the internationally accepted poverty line of US$1.08 per person per day, the MSA/Catastrophic models would reduce the poverty headcount by 3.5-3.9% and the average poverty gap by 11.8-16.4%, compared with reductions of 6.1-6.8% and 15-18.5% under the RMHC model. The primary reason for this is that NCMS does not address a major cause of medical impoverishment: expensive outpatient services for chronic conditions. As such, health policymakers need first to examine the disease profile and health expenditure pattern of a population before they can direct resources to where they will be most effective. As chronic diseases impose a growing share of the burden on the population in developing countries, it is not necessarily true that insurance coverage focusing on expensive hospital care alone is the most effective at providing financial risk protection.

The economic burden of pediatric gastroenteritis to Bolivian families: a cross-sectional study of correlates of catastrophic cost and overall cost burden

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Worldwide, acute gastroenteritis causes substantial morbidity and mortality in children less than five years of age. In Bolivia, which has one of the lower GDPs in South America, 16% of child deaths can be attributed to diarrhea, and the costs associated with diarrhea can weigh heavily on patient families. To address this need, the study goal was to identify predictors of cost burden (diarrhea-related costs incurred as a percentage of annual income) and catastrophic cost (cost burden ≥ 1% of annual household income). Methods From 2007 to 2009, researchers interviewed caregivers (n = 1,107) of pediatric patients (<5 years old) seeking treatment for diarrhea in six Bolivian hospitals. Caregivers were surveyed on demographics, clinical symptoms, direct (e.g. medication, consult fees), and indirect (e.g. lost wages) costs. Multivariate regression models (n = 551) were used to assess relationships of covariates to the outcomes of cost burden (linear model) and catastrophic cost (logistic model). Results We determined that cost burden and catastrophic cost shared the same significant (p < 0.05) predictors. In the logistic model that also controlled for child sex, child age, household size, rural residence, transportations taken to the current visit, whether the child presented with complications, and whether this was the child’s first episode of diarrhea, significant predictors of catastrophic cost included outpatient status (OR 0.16, 95% CI [0.07, 0.37]); seeking care at a private hospital (OR 4.12, 95% CI [2.30, 7.41]); having previously sought treatment for this diarrheal episode (OR 3.92, 95% CI [1.64, 9.35]); and the number of days the child had diarrhea prior to the current visit (OR 1.14, 95% CI [1.05, 1.24]). Conclusions Our analysis highlights the economic impact of pediatric diarrhea from the familial perspective and provides insight into potential areas of intervention to reduce associated economic burden. PMID:24962128

Study of flight data recorder, underwater locator beacon, data logger and flarm collision avoidance system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timi, Purnota Hannan; Shermin, Saima; Rahman, Asifur

2017-06-01

Flight data recorder is one of the most important sources of flight data in event of aviation disaster which records a wide range of flight parameters including altitude, airspeed, heading etc. and also helps monitoring and analyzing aircraft performance. Cockpit voice recorder records radio microphone transmissions and sounds in the cockpit. These devices help to find out and understand the root causes of aircraft crashes and help building better aircraft systems and technical solutions to prevent similar type of crashes in future, which lead to improvement in safety of aircrafts and passengers. There are other devices also which enhance the aircraft safety and assists in emergency or catastrophic situations. This paper discusses the concept of Flight Data Recorder (FDR), Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB), Data logger and flarm-collision avoidance system for aircraft and their applications in aviation.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

PubMed

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

MAGNETAR GIANT FLARES AND THEIR PRECURSORS-FLUX ROPE ERUPTIONS WITH CURRENT SHEETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu Cong; Huang Lei, E-mail: cyu@ynao.ac.cn, E-mail: muduri@shao.ac.cn

2013-07-10

We propose a catastrophic magnetospheric model for magnetar precursors and their successive giant flares. Axisymmetric models of the magnetosphere, which contain both a helically twisted flux rope and a current sheet, are established based on force-free field configurations. In this model, the helically twisted flux rope would lose its equilibrium and erupt abruptly in response to the slow and quasi-static variations at the ultra-strongly magnetized neutron star's surface. In a previous model without current sheets, only one critical point exists in the flux rope equilibrium curve. New features show up in the equilibrium curves for the flux rope when currentmore » sheets appear in the magnetosphere. The causal connection between the precursor and the giant flare, as well as the temporary re-entry of the quiescent state between the precursor and the giant flare, can be naturally explained. Magnetic energy would be released during the catastrophic state transitions. The detailed energetics of the model are also discussed. The current sheet created by the catastrophic loss of equilibrium of the flux rope provides an ideal place for magnetic reconnection. We point out the importance of magnetic reconnection for further enhancement of the energy release during eruptions.« less

Energy dissipation by submarine obstacles during landslide impact on reservoir - potentially avoiding catastrophic dam collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafle, Jeevan; Kattel, Parameshwari; Mergili, Martin; Fischer, Jan-Thomas; Tuladhar, Bhadra Man; Pudasaini, Shiva P.

2017-04-01

Dense geophysical mass flows such as landslides, debris flows and debris avalanches may generate super tsunami waves as they impact water bodies such as the sea, hydraulic reservoirs or mountain lakes. Here, we apply a comprehensive and general two-phase, physical-mathematical mass flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) that consists of non-linear and hyperbolic-parabolic partial differential equations for mass and momentum balances, and present novel, high-resolution simulation results for two-phase flows, as a mixture of solid grains and viscous fluid, impacting fluid reservoirs with obstacles. The simulations demonstrate that due to the presence of different obstacles in the water body, the intense flow-obstacle-interaction dramatically reduces the flow momentum resulting in the rapid energy dissipation around the obstacles. With the increase of obstacle height overtopping decreases but, the deflection and capturing (holding) of solid mass increases. In addition, the submarine solid mass is captured by the multiple obstacles and the moving mass decreases both in amount and speed as each obstacle causes the flow to deflect into two streams and also captures a portion of it. This results in distinct tsunami and submarine flow dynamics with multiple surface water and submarine debris waves. This novel approach can be implemented in open source GIS modelling framework r.avaflow, and be applied in hazard mitigation, prevention and relevant engineering or environmental tasks. This might be in particular for process chains, such as debris impacts in lakes and subsequent overtopping. So, as the complex flow-obstacle-interactions strongly and simultaneously dissipate huge energy at impact such installations potentially avoid great threat against the integrity of the dam. References: Pudasaini, S. P. (2012): A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F03010, doi: 10.1029/ 2011JF002186.

Evolution of specialization in resource utilization in structured metapopulations.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Geritz, Stefan; Parvinen, Kalle; Gyllenberg, Mats

2008-07-01

We study the evolution of resource utilization in a structured discrete-time metapopulation model with an infinite number of patches, prone to local catastrophes. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources available in different amounts in each patch. We analyse how the evolution of specialization in the utilization of the resources is affected by different ecological factors: migration, local growth, local catastrophes, forms of the trade-off and distribution of the resources in the patches. Our modelling approach offers a natural way to include more than two patch types into the models. This has not been usually possible in the previous spatially heterogeneous models focusing on the evolution of specialization.

Physical determinants of bipolar mitotic spindle assembly and stability in fission yeast

PubMed Central

Blackwell, Robert; Edelmaier, Christopher; Sweezy-Schindler, Oliver; Lamson, Adam; Gergely, Zachary R.; O’Toole, Eileen; Crapo, Ammon; Hough, Loren E.; McIntosh, J. Richard; Glaser, Matthew A.; Betterton, Meredith D.

2017-01-01

Mitotic spindles use an elegant bipolar architecture to segregate duplicated chromosomes with high fidelity. Bipolar spindles form from a monopolar initial condition; this is the most fundamental construction problem that the spindle must solve. Microtubules, motors, and cross-linkers are important for bipolarity, but the mechanisms necessary and sufficient for spindle assembly remain unknown. We describe a physical model that exhibits de novo bipolar spindle formation. We began with physical properties of fission-yeast spindle pole body size and microtubule number, kinesin-5 motors, kinesin-14 motors, and passive cross-linkers. Our model results agree quantitatively with our experiments in fission yeast, thereby establishing a minimal system with which to interrogate collective self-assembly. By varying the features of our model, we identify a set of functions essential for the generation and stability of spindle bipolarity. When kinesin-5 motors are present, their bidirectionality is essential, but spindles can form in the presence of passive cross-linkers alone. We also identify characteristic failed states of spindle assembly—the persistent monopole, X spindle, separated asters, and short spindle, which are avoided by the creation and maintenance of antiparallel microtubule overlaps. Our model can guide the identification of new, multifaceted strategies to induce mitotic catastrophes; these would constitute novel strategies for cancer chemotherapy. PMID:28116355

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardes, A.T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through themore » Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different reproductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.« less

Life prediction technologies for aeronautical propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgaw, Michael A.

1987-01-01

Fatigue and fracture problems continue to occur in aeronautical gas turbine engines. Components whose useful life is limited by these failure modes include turbine hot-section blades, vanes and disks. Safety considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that noncatastrophic failures occur as infrequently as possible. The design decision is therefore in making the tradeoff between engine performance and durability. The NASA Lewis Research Center has contributed to the aeropropulsion industry in the areas of life prediction technology for 30 years, developing creep and fatigue life prediction methodologies for hot-section materials. Emphasis is placed on the development of methods capable of handling both thermal and mechanical fatigue under severe environments. Recent accomplishments include the development of more accurate creep-fatigue life prediction methods such as the total strain version of Lewis' Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) and the HOST-developed Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) model. Other examples include the Double Damage Curve Approach (DDCA), which provides greatly improved accuracy for cumulative fatigue design rules.

Main Determinants of Catastrophic Health Expenditures: A Bayesian Logit Approach on Iranian Household Survey Data (2010)

PubMed Central

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Fazaeli, Amir Abbas; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Background: During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. Objectives: The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. Patients and Methods: In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Results: Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. Conclusions: About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems. PMID:25946936

Main determinants of catastrophic health expenditures: a Bayesian logit approach on Iranian household survey data (2010).

PubMed

Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Abbas Fazaeli, Amir; Lotfi, Farhad; Salehi, Masoud; Mehrara, Mohsen

2015-01-26

During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems.

Shapes and stability of algebraic nuclear models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez-Moreno, Enrique; Castanos, Octavio

1995-01-01

A generalization of the procedure to study shapes and stability of algebraic nuclear models introduced by Gilmore is presented. One calculates the expectation value of the Hamiltonian with respect to the coherent states of the algebraic structure of the system. Then equilibrium configurations of the resulting energy surface, which depends in general on state variables and a set of parameters, are classified through the Catastrophe theory. For one- and two-body interactions in the Hamiltonian of the interacting Boson model-1, the critical points are organized through the Cusp catastrophe. As an example, we apply this Separatrix to describe the energy surfaces associated to the Rutenium and Samarium isotopes.

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities in risk-taking rather than the "downside" and the general notion that catastrophes will get worse. The focus will be on the industry's ability to hedge and optimize risk more efficiently in a changing environment.

[Errors and dangers in intestinal sutures and anastomoses using stapler suture instruments (EEA, TA55, TA90, GIA)].

PubMed

Gögler, E

1985-01-01

In different tables the most important faults with enteral sutures and anastomoses in general and at special operations are demonstrated: end-to-end anastomoses with congruent diameter, anastomoses with different diameters, B I, B II, low anterior resection, esophago-jejunostomy. Only if the surgeon has experience in standard technique, faults and risks with mechanical staplers and manual sutures, the advantage-progress of staplers will be effective avoiding special risks. Surgeons without experience may produce real catastrophes which may turn out hopeless without training in manual suture technique.

Ranitidine-induced perioperative anaphylaxis: A rare occurrence and successful management

PubMed Central

Neema, Shekhar; Sen, Subrato; Chatterjee, Manas

2016-01-01

Perioperative anaphylaxis is a rare and catastrophic event. Anaphylaxis during perioperative period changes the entire management plan for the patient. Since a large number of drugs are administered to the patient during the short span of time, it becomes difficult to identify the culprit drug. This has an impact on the management of the patients who have to undergo surgery. Ranitidine is considered a safe drug used in perioperative period; however, rarely it can lead to perioperative anaphylaxis. We present one such case of ranitidine-induced perioperative anaphylaxis which was successfully managed by early diagnosis and avoidance of drug. PMID:27127327

Ranitidine-induced perioperative anaphylaxis: A rare occurrence and successful management.

PubMed

Neema, Shekhar; Sen, Subrato; Chatterjee, Manas

2016-01-01

Perioperative anaphylaxis is a rare and catastrophic event. Anaphylaxis during perioperative period changes the entire management plan for the patient. Since a large number of drugs are administered to the patient during the short span of time, it becomes difficult to identify the culprit drug. This has an impact on the management of the patients who have to undergo surgery. Ranitidine is considered a safe drug used in perioperative period; however, rarely it can lead to perioperative anaphylaxis. We present one such case of ranitidine-induced perioperative anaphylaxis which was successfully managed by early diagnosis and avoidance of drug.

Intelligent systems for strategic power infrastructure defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Ju-Hwan

A fault or disturbance in a power system can be severe due to the sources of vulnerability such as human errors, protection and control system failures, a failure of communication networks to deliver critical control signals, and market and load uncertainties. There have been several catastrophic failures resulting from disturbances involving the sources of vulnerability while power systems are designed to withstand disturbances or faults. To avoid catastrophic failures or minimize the impact of a disturbance(s), the state of the power system has to be analyzed correctly and preventive or corrective self-healing control actions have to be deployed. This dissertation addresses two aspects of power systems: Defense system and diagnosis, both concerned with the power system analysis and operation during events involving faults or disturbances. This study is intended to develop a defense system that is able to assess power system vulnerability and to perform self-healing control actions based on the system-wide analysis. In order to meet the requirements of the system-wide analysis, the defense system is designed with multi-agent system technologies. Since power systems are dynamic and uncertain the self-healing control actions need to be adaptive. This study applies the reinforcement learning technique to provide a theoretical basis for adaptation. One of the important issues in adaptation is the convergence of the learning algorithm. An appropriate convergence criterion is derived and an application with a load-shedding scheme is demonstrated in this study. This dissertation also demonstrates the feasibility of the defense system and self-healing control actions through multi-agent system technologies. The other subject of this research is to investigate the methodology for on-line fault diagnosis using the information from Sequence-of-Events Recorders (SER). The proposed multiple-hypothesis analysis generates one or more hypothetical fault scenarios to interpret the SER information. In order to avoid ambiguity of the hypotheses, this study proposes a new method to determine the credibility of each hypothesis. Even if there is not enough SER information, the proposed method is able to perform an accurate fault and malfunction analysis. To avoid exhaustive testing, a minimal set of test scenarios is derived, which is able to handle missing information and SERs. During extreme contingencies or cascading events, fault diagnosis is the first step in the operation of the power system. On-line fault diagnosis provides necessary and correct information for the defense system to make correct and efficient decisions on self-healing control actions. It has been shown in previous studies that incorrect fault diagnosis can lead to catastrophic failures in power systems. Fault diagnosis is an important issue for strategic power infrastructure defense.

Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems.

PubMed

Ghadami, Amin; Gourgou, Eleni; Epureanu, Bogdan I

2018-06-18

Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time series can indicate that the system is approaching an impending transition. An exciting question is, however, whether we can predict more characteristics of the future system stability using measurements taken away from the transition. We address this question by introducing a model-less forecasting method to forecast catastrophic transition of an experimental ecological system. The experiment is based on the dynamics of a yeast population, which is known to exhibit a catastrophic transition as the environment deteriorates. By measuring the system's response to perturbations prior to transition, we forecast the distance to the upcoming transition, the type of the transition (i.e., catastrophic/non-catastrophic) and the future equilibrium points within a range near the transition. Experimental results suggest a strong potential for practical applicability of this approach for ecological systems which are at risk of catastrophic transitions, where there is a pressing need for information about upcoming thresholds.

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pine, William Pine; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

2013-01-01

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

Which psychological factors exacerbate irritable bowel syndrome? Development of a comprehensive model.

PubMed

van Tilburg, Miranda A L; Palsson, Olafur S; Whitehead, William E

2013-06-01

There is evidence that psychological factors affect the onset, severity and duration of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). However, it is not clear which psychological factors are the most important and how they interact. The aims of the current study are to identify the most important psychological factors predicting IBS symptom severity and to investigate how these psychological variables are related to each other. Study participants were 286 IBS patients who completed a battery of psychological questionnaires including neuroticism, abuse history, life events, anxiety, somatization and catastrophizing. IBS severity measured by the IBS Severity Scale was the dependent variable. Path analysis was performed to determine the associations among the psychological variables, and IBS severity. Although the hypothesized model showed adequate fit, post hoc model modifications were performed to increase prediction. The final model was significant (Chi(2)=2.2; p=0.82; RMSEA<.05) predicting 36% of variance in IBS severity. Catastrophizing (standardized coefficient (β)=0.33; p<.001) and somatization (β=0.20; p<.001) were the only two psychological variables directly associated with IBS severity. Anxiety had an indirect effect on IBS symptoms through catastrophizing (β=0.80; p<.001); as well as somatization (β=0.37; p<.001). Anxiety, in turn, was predicted by neuroticism (β=0.66; p<.001) and stressful life events (β=0.31; p<.001). While cause-and-effect cannot be determined from these cross-sectional data, the outcomes suggest that the most fruitful approach to curb negative effects of psychological factors on IBS is to reduce catastrophizing and somatization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health insurance for the poor: impact on catastrophic and out-of-pocket health expenditures in Mexico

PubMed Central

Galárraga, Omar; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio

2009-01-01

The goal of Seguro Popular (SP) in Mexico was to improve the financial protection of the uninsured population against excessive health expenditures. This paper estimates the impact of SP on catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), as well as out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures, from two different sources. First, we use the SP Impact Evaluation Survey (2005–2006), and compare the instrumental variables (IV) results with the experimental benchmark. Then, we use the same IV methods with the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT 2006). We estimate naïve models, assuming exogeneity, and contrast them with IV models that take advantage of the specific SP implementation mechanisms for identification. The IV models estimated included two-stage least squares (2SLS), bivariate probit, and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) models. Instrumental variables estimates resulted in comparable estimates against the “gold standard.” Instrumental variables estimates indicate a reduction of 54% in catastrophic expenditures at the national level. SP beneficiaries also had lower expenditures on outpatient and medicine expenditures. The selection-corrected protective effect is found not only in the limited experimental dataset, but also at the national level. PMID:19756796

Health insurance for the poor: impact on catastrophic and out-of-pocket health expenditures in Mexico.

PubMed

Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio

2010-10-01

The goal of Seguro Popular (SP) in Mexico was to improve the financial protection of the uninsured population against excessive health expenditures. This paper estimates the impact of SP on catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), as well as out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures, from two different sources. First, we use the SP Impact Evaluation Survey (2005-2006), and compare the instrumental variables (IV) results with the experimental benchmark. Then, we use the same IV methods with the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT 2006). We estimate naïve models, assuming exogeneity, and contrast them with IV models that take advantage of the specific SP implementation mechanisms for identification. The IV models estimated included two-stage least squares (2SLS), bivariate probit, and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) models. Instrumental variables estimates resulted in comparable estimates against the "gold standard." Instrumental variables estimates indicate a reduction of 54% in catastrophic expenditures at the national level. SP beneficiaries also had lower expenditures on outpatient and medicine expenditures. The selection-corrected protective effect is found not only in the limited experimental dataset, but also at the national level.

Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

PubMed

De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

2016-11-01

Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

Health service use, out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India: the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE).

PubMed

Brinda, Ethel Mary; Kowal, Paul; Attermann, Jørn; Enemark, Ulrika

2015-05-01

Healthcare financing through out-of-pocket payments and inequities in healthcare utilisation are common in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Given the dearth of pertinent studies on these issues among older people in LMICs, we investigated the determinants of health service use, out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures among older people in one LMIC, India. We accessed data from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 2414 people aged 65 years and older from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health in India. Sociodemographic characteristics, health profiles, health service utilisation and out-of-pocket health expenditure were assessed using standard instruments. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate the determinants of health service visits. Multivariate Heckman sample selection regression models were used to assess the determinants of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures. Out-of-pocket health expenditures were higher among participants with disability and lower income. Diabetes, hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, heart disease and tuberculosis increased the number of health visits and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India was 7% (95% CI 6% to 8%). Older men and individuals with chronic diseases were at higher risk of catastrophic health expenditure, while access to health insurance lowered the risk. Reducing out-of-pocket health expenditure among older people is an important public health issue, in which social as well as medical determinants should be prioritised. Enhanced public health sector performance and provision of publicly funded insurance may protect against catastrophic health expenses and healthcare inequities in India. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Catastrophic health expenditure and 12-month mortality associated with cancer in Southeast Asia: results from a longitudinal study in eight countries.

PubMed

Kimman, Merel; Jan, Stephen; Yip, Cheng Har; Thabrany, Hasbullah; Peters, Sanne A; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Woodward, Mark

2015-08-18

One of the biggest obstacles to developing policies in cancer care in Southeast Asia is lack of reliable data on disease burden and economic consequences. In 2012, we instigated a study of new cancer patients in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region - the Asean CosTs In ONcology (ACTION) study - to assess the economic impact of cancer. The ACTION study is a prospective longitudinal study of 9,513 consecutively recruited adult patients with an initial diagnosis of cancer. Twelve months after diagnosis, we recorded death and household financial catastrophe (out-of-pocket medical costs exceeding 30% of annual household income). We assessed the effect on these two outcomes of a range of socio-demographic, clinical, and economic predictors using a multinomial regression model. The mean age of participants was 52 years; 64% were women. A year after diagnosis, 29% had died, 48% experienced financial catastrophe, and just 23% were alive with no financial catastrophe. The risk of dying from cancer and facing catastrophic payments was associated with clinical variables, such as a more advanced disease stage at diagnosis, and socioeconomic status pre-diagnosis. Participants in the low income category within each country had significantly higher odds of financial catastrophe (odds ratio, 5.86; 95% confidence interval, 4.76-7.23) and death (5.52; 4.34-7.02) than participants with high income. Those without insurance were also more likely to experience financial catastrophe (1.27; 1.05-1.52) and die (1.51; 1.21-1.88) than participants with insurance. A cancer diagnosis in Southeast Asia is potentially disastrous, with over 75% of patients experiencing death or financial catastrophe within one year. This study adds compelling evidence to the argument for policies that improve access to care and provide adequate financial protection from the costs of illness.

Cascading failures and the emergence of cooperation in evolutionary-game based models of social and economical networks.

PubMed

Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Armbruster, Dieter

2011-09-01

We study catastrophic behaviors in large networked systems in the paradigm of evolutionary games by incorporating a realistic "death" or "bankruptcy" mechanism. We find that a cascading bankruptcy process can arise when defection strategies exist and individuals are vulnerable to deficit. Strikingly, we observe that, after the catastrophic cascading process terminates, cooperators are the sole survivors, regardless of the game types and of the connection patterns among individuals as determined by the topology of the underlying network. It is necessary that individuals cooperate with each other to survive the catastrophic failures. Cooperation thus becomes the optimal strategy and absolutely outperforms defection in the game evolution with respect to the "death" mechanism. Our results can be useful for understanding large-scale catastrophe in real-world systems and in particular, they may yield insights into significant social and economical phenomena such as large-scale failures of financial institutions and corporations during an economic recession.

Cascading failures and the emergence of cooperation in evolutionary-game based models of social and economical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Armbruster, Dieter

2011-09-01

We study catastrophic behaviors in large networked systems in the paradigm of evolutionary games by incorporating a realistic "death" or "bankruptcy" mechanism. We find that a cascading bankruptcy process can arise when defection strategies exist and individuals are vulnerable to deficit. Strikingly, we observe that, after the catastrophic cascading process terminates, cooperators are the sole survivors, regardless of the game types and of the connection patterns among individuals as determined by the topology of the underlying network. It is necessary that individuals cooperate with each other to survive the catastrophic failures. Cooperation thus becomes the optimal strategy and absolutely outperforms defection in the game evolution with respect to the "death" mechanism. Our results can be useful for understanding large-scale catastrophe in real-world systems and in particular, they may yield insights into significant social and economical phenomena such as large-scale failures of financial institutions and corporations during an economic recession.

The importance of assessing out-of-pocket payments when the financing of antiretroviral therapy is transitioned to domestic funding: findings from Vietnam.

PubMed

Johns, Benjamin; Chau, Le Bao; Hanh, Kieu Huu; Huong, Nguyen Thuy; Do, Hoa Mai; Duong, Anh Thuy; Nguyen, Long Hoang

2017-07-01

To assess out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditures among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients in Vietnam, and to model catastrophic payments under different copayment scenarios when the primary financing of ART changes to social health insurance. Cross-sectional facility-based survey of 843 patients at 42 health facilities representative of 87% of ART patients in 2015. Because of donor and government funding, no payments were made for antiretroviral drugs. Other health expenditures were about $66 per person per year (95% CI: $30-$102), of which $15 ($7-$22) were directly for HIV-related health services, largely laboratory tests. These payments resulted in a 4.9% (95% CI: 3.1-6.8%) catastrophic payment rate and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.9-4.1%) catastrophic payment rate for HIV-related health services. About 32% of respondents reported, they were eligible for SHI without copayments. If patients had to pay 20% of costs of ART under social health insurance, the catastrophic payment rate would increase to 8% (95% CI: 5.5-10.0%), and if patients without health insurance had to pay the full costs of ART, the catastrophic payment rate among all patients would be 24% (95% CI: 21.1-27.4%). Health and catastrophic expenditures were substantially lower than in previous studies, although different methods may explain some of the discrepancy. The 20% copayments required by social health insurance would present a financial burden to an additional 0.6% to 5.1% of ART patients. Ensuring access to health insurance for all ART patients will prevent an even higher level of financial hardship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cadmium-induced cyto- and genotoxicity are organ-dependent in lettuce.

PubMed

Monteiro, Cristina; Santos, Conceição; Pinho, Sónia; Oliveira, Helena; Pedrosa, Tiago; Dias, Maria Celeste

2012-07-16

Cadmium is a priority pollutant. Its mechanisms and effects within different plant organs remain unclear. Here, cyto-genotoxicity biomarkers were evaluated in roots and leaves after Cd exposure (0, 1, 10, and 50 μM) of the model crop Lactuca sativa L. (cv. "Reine de Mai"). Overall, superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activities were stimulated in leaves, where Cd accumulation was lower in comparison to that in roots. In roots, SOD and peroxidase (POX, APX) activities were stimulated. Moreover, in both organs glutathione reductase (GR) was not affected by Cd. Overall, the H(2)O(2) content increased in both organs, while the total antioxidant capacity decreased in leaves and increased in roots with Cd concentrations. In both organs, lipid and protein oxidation rose with consequent increase of membrane permeability. Simultaneously, the comet assay showed that tail moment, tail length, and % tail DNA were maximum for 1 μM. For 10 μM, shorter tails were found suggesting induced Cd-DNA adducts that lead to DNA-DNA/DNA-protein cross-links, and/or formation of longer DNA fragments, and/or impairment of DNA repair mechanisms, while at 50 μM, nucleoids sensitivity to the technique was evident. This result was consistent with the maximum micronuclei frequency found for the 10 μM Cd dose in roots, suggesting that the surviving cells in this organ had an increase of mitotic catastrophe and that DNA repair systems for blocking cell cycle were dysfunctional. In lower Cd concentrations, root cells might have developed strategies to repair damaged DNA by blocking the cell cycle at specific checkpoints, thus avoiding mitotic catastrophe. Roots at 1 μM showed a cell cycle blockage trend at the G(2) checkpoint, while those at higher concentrations presented S phase delay. We finally discuss a general model of Cd-organ interaction covering these cyto- and genotoxic effects and the potential use of this cultivar in phytoremediation strategies.

The role of trait mindfulness in the pain experience of adolescents.

PubMed

Petter, Mark; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Dick, Bruce D

2013-12-01

Trait mindfulness appears to mitigate pain among adult clinical populations and has a unique relationship with pain catastrophizing. However, little is understood about this phenomenon among adolescents. The association between trait mindfulness and pain in both real-world and experimental contexts was examined in a community sample of adolescents. Participants were 198 adolescents who completed measures of trait mindfulness, pain catastrophizing, and pain interference, as well as an interview on day-to-day pain before undergoing an acute experimental pain task. Following the task, they provided ratings of pain intensity and state catastrophizing. Results showed that with regard to day-to-day pains, mindfulness was a significant and unique predictor of pain interference, and this relationship was partially mediated by pain catastrophizing. Mindfulness also had an indirect relationship with experimental pain intensity and tolerance. These associations were mediated by catastrophizing during the pain task. These findings highlight the association between trait mindfulness and both real-world and experimental pain and offer insight into how mindfulness may affect pain among youth. Findings are discussed in the context of current psychological models of pediatric pain and future avenues for research. This article highlights the association between trait mindfulness and pain variables among adolescents in both real-world and experimental pain settings. These findings offer further evidence of the unique relationship between trait mindfulness and pain catastrophizing in affecting pain variables across pain contexts and populations. Copyright © 2013 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

Error catastrophe and phase transition in the empirical fitness landscape of HIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Gregory R.; Ferguson, Andrew L.

2015-03-01

We have translated clinical sequence databases of the p6 HIV protein into an empirical fitness landscape quantifying viral replicative capacity as a function of the amino acid sequence. We show that the viral population resides close to a phase transition in sequence space corresponding to an "error catastrophe" beyond which there is lethal accumulation of mutations. Our model predicts that the phase transition may be induced by drug therapies that elevate the mutation rate, or by forcing mutations at particular amino acids. Applying immune pressure to any combination of killer T-cell targets cannot induce the transition, providing a rationale for why the viral protein can exist close to the error catastrophe without sustaining fatal fitness penalties due to adaptive immunity.

Catastrophizing, state anxiety, anger, and depressive symptoms do not correlate with disability when variations of trait anxiety are taken into account. a study of chronic low back pain patients treated in Spanish pain units [NCT00360802].

PubMed

Moix, Jenny; Kovacs, Francisco M; Martín, Andrés; Plana, María N; Royuela, Ana

2011-07-01

To assess the influence of pain severity, catastrophizing, anger, anxiety, and depression on nonspecific low back pain (LBP)-related disability in Spanish patients with chronic LBP. Study Design.  Cross-sectional correlation between psychological variables and disability. Methods.  One hundred twenty-three patients treated for chronic LBP in pain units within nine Spanish National Health Service Hospitals, in eight cities, were included in this study. Intensity of LBP and pain referred to the leg, disability, catastrophizing, anger, state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression were assessed through previously validated questionnaires. The association of disability with these variables, as well as gender, age, academic level, work status, and use of antidepressants, was analyzed through linear regression models. Correlations between LBP, referred pain, disability, catastrophizing, anger, state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression were significant, except for the ones between anger and LBP and between anger and referred pain. The multivariate regression model showed that when variations of trait anxiety were taken into account, the association of the other psychological variables with disability was no longer significant. The final model explained 49% of the variability of disability. Standardized coefficients were 0.452 for trait anxiety, 0.362 for intensity of LBP, 0.253 for failed back surgery, and -0.140 for higher academic level. Among Spanish chronic LBP patients treated at pain units, the correlation of catastrophizing, state anxiety, anger, and depression with disability ceases to be significant when variations of trait anxiety are taken into account. Further studies with LBP patients should determine whether anxiety trait mediates the effects of the other variables, explore its prognostic value, and assess the therapeutic effect of reducing it. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Fair health financing and catastrophic health expenditures: potential impact of the coverage extension of the popular health insurance in Mexico].

PubMed

Knaul, Felicia; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez, Oscar; Martínez, Alejandra

2005-01-01

To assess the impact on fair health financing and household catastrophic health expenditures of the implementation of the Popular Health Insurance (Seguro Popular de Salud). Data analyzed in this study come from the National Income and Expenditure Household Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares, ENIGH), 2000, and the National Health Insurance and Expenditure Survey, (Encuesta Nacional de Aseguramiento y Gasto en Salud, ENAGS), 2001. Estimations are based on projections of extension of the Popular Health Insurance under different conditions of coverage and out-of-pocket expenditure reductions in the uninsured population. The mathematic simulation model assumes applying the new Popular Health Insurance financial structure to the 2000 expenditure values reported by ENIGH, given the probability of affiliation by households. The model of determinants of affiliation to the Popular Health Insurance yielded three significant variables: being in income quintiles I and II, being a female head of household, and that a household member had a medical visit in the past year. Simulation results show that important impacts on the performance of the Mexican Health System will occur in terms of fair financing and catastrophic expenditures, even before achieving the universal coverage goal in 2010. A reduction of 40% in out-of-pocket expenditures and a Popular Health Insurance coverage of 100% will decrease catastrophic health expenditures from 3.4% to 1.6%. Our results show that the reduction of out-of-pocket expenditures generated by the new financing and health provision Popular Health Insurance model, will improve the financial fairness index and the financial contribution to the health system, and will decrease the percentage of households with catastrophic expenditures, even before reaching universal coverage. A greater impact may be expected due to coverage extension initiating in the poorest communities that have a very restricted and progressive financial contribution.

Abnormal illness behaviour: physiological, psychological and social dimensions of coping with distress.

PubMed

Kirmayer, Laurence J; Looper, Karl J

2006-01-01

Pilowsky introduced the term 'abnormal illness behaviour' to characterize syndromes of excessive or inadequate response to symptoms, including hypochondriasis, somatization, and denial of illness. This review summarizes recent work from sociology, health psychology and psychiatry that contributes to an understanding of the processes that may underlie abnormal illness behaviour. Disturbances in the regulation of physiological systems may account for many 'unexplained' symptoms and sickness behaviour. Increased attention to bodily sensations, sensitivity to pain and catastrophizing play important roles in illness behaviour in medical illness. Developmental adversities and parental modelling of illness behaviour in childhood may increase bodily preoccupation and health care utilization. Apparent cross-national differences in illness behaviour may reflect differences in health care systems, but cultural models of illness and social stigma remain important determinants of illness denial and avoidance of mental health services. Research into illness behaviour is relevant to efforts to rethink the psychiatric nosology of somatoform disorders. The discrete somatoform disorders might well be replaced by a dimensional framework that identifies specific pathological processes in cognition, perception and social behaviour that contribute to bodily distress, impaired coping, inappropriate use of health services, chronicity and disability.

When the firm prevents the crash: Avoiding market collapse with partial control.

PubMed

Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; A F Sanjuán, Miguel

2017-01-01

Market collapse is one of the most dramatic events in economics. Such a catastrophic event can emerge from the nonlinear interactions between the economic agents at the micro level of the economy. Transient chaos might be a good description of how a collapsing market behaves. In this work, we apply a new control method, the partial control method, with the goal of avoiding this disastrous event. Contrary to common control methods that try to influence the system from the outside, here the market is controlled from the bottom up by one of the most basic components of the market-the firm. This is the first time that the partial control method is applied on a strictly economical system in which we also introduce external disturbances. We show how the firm is capable of controlling the system avoiding the collapse by only adjusting the selling price of the product or the quantity of production in accordance to the market circumstances. Additionally, we demonstrate how a firm with a large market share is capable of influencing the demand achieving price stability across the retail and wholesale markets. Furthermore, we prove that the control applied in both cases is much smaller than the external disturbances.

GENOA-PFA: Progressive Fracture in Composites Simulated Computationally

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2000-01-01

GENOA-PFA is a commercial version of the Composite Durability Structural Analysis (CODSTRAN) computer program that simulates the progression of damage ultimately leading to fracture in polymer-matrix-composite (PMC) material structures under various loading and environmental conditions. GENOA-PFA offers several capabilities not available in other programs developed for this purpose, making it preferable for use in analyzing the durability and damage tolerance of complex PMC structures in which the fiber reinforcements occur in two- and three-dimensional weaves and braids. GENOA-PFA implements a progressive-fracture methodology based on the idea that a structure fails when flaws that may initially be small (even microscopic) grow and/or coalesce to a critical dimension where the structure no longer has an adequate safety margin to avoid catastrophic global fracture. Damage is considered to progress through five stages: (1) initiation, (2) growth, (3) accumulation (coalescence of propagating flaws), (4) stable propagation (up to the critical dimension), and (5) unstable or very rapid propagation (beyond the critical dimension) to catastrophic failure. The computational simulation of progressive failure involves formal procedures for identifying the five different stages of damage and for relating the amount of damage at each stage to the overall behavior of the deteriorating structure. In GENOA-PFA, mathematical modeling of the composite physical behavior involves an integration of simulations at multiple, hierarchical scales ranging from the macroscopic (lamina, laminate, and structure) to the microscopic (fiber, matrix, and fiber/matrix interface), as shown in the figure. The code includes algorithms to simulate the progression of damage from various source defects, including (1) through-the-thickness cracks and (2) voids with edge, pocket, internal, or mixed-mode delaminations.

Determinants of Catastrophic Dental Health Expenditure in China

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuenan; Gallagher, Jennifer Elizabeth; Zheng, Shuguo

2016-01-01

This study explored catastrophic health expenditure in China, due to out-of-pocket payments for dental care, and its associated individual- and contextual-level factors. We pooled data from 31,566 adults who participated in the third National Oral Health Survey with province-level data from different sources. We defined catastrophic dental health expenditure (CDHE) as payments for dental services and/or medication for dental problems during the last year that exceeded the 10% and 20% of the household income. The association of individual and contextual factors with catastrophic dental health expenditure was evaluated using two-level logistic regression models with individuals nested within provinces. Socioeconomic position (education and household income), household size and dental status (pain in teeth or mouth and number of teeth) were the individual-level factors associated with CDHE among the full sample of participants; and, also, among those who used dental services in the past year. Greater gross domestic product per capita was the only contextual factor associated with CDHE, and only at the lower income threshold. This study shows that out-of-pocket expenses for dental services may put a considerable, and unnecessary, burden on households’ finances. Our findings also help characterise those households more likely to face catastrophic expenditure on health if they have to pay for dental services. PMID:27977756

Some challenges in designing a lunar, Martian, or microgravity CELSS.

PubMed

Salisbury, F B

1992-01-01

The design of a bioregenerative life-support system (a Controlled Ecological Life-Support System or CELSS) for long-duration stays on the moon, Mars, or in a space craft poses formidable problems in engineering and in theory. Technological (hardware) problems include: (1) Creation and control of gas composition and pressure, temperature, light, humidity, and air circulation, especially in microgravity to 1/3 xg and in the vacuum of space. Light (energy demanding), CO2 levels, and the rooting media are special problems for plants. (2) Developing specialized equipment for food preparation. (3) Equipment development for waste recycling. (4) Development of computer systems for environmental monitoring and control as well as several other functions. Problems of theory (software) include: (1) Determining crop species and cultivars (some bred especially for CELSS). (2) Optimum environments and growing and harvesting techniques for each crop. (3) Best and most efficient food-preparation techniques and required equipment. (4) Best and most efficient waste-recycling techniques and equipment. This topic includes questions about the extent of closure, resupply, and waste storage. (5) How to achieve long-term stability. (6) How to avoid catastrophic failures--and how to recover from near-catastrophic failures (for example, plant diseases). Many problems must be solved.

Guidelines for catastrophic emergency situations involving asbestos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

These guidelines are intended to assist regional, state, and local agencies in managing potential asbestos hazards resulting from a catastrophic accident or disaster. The guidelines may be used as a reference for advanced planning or, once the emergency presents itself, to help ensure that, to the extent feasible and compatible with other emergency measures, all appropriate steps are taken to safely handle and dispose of all asbestos, while avoiding unnecessary exposures to asbestos. The guidelines provide information that may be helpful to EPA Regional offices and delegated NESHAP agencies that must respond to emergencies involving asbestos. The guidelines review themore » experiences of EPA Regional and state enforcement agencies in dealing with asbestos during recent emergencies. Information is included on statutes and regulations that may be applicable in emergency situations, including the emergency provisions of the asbestos NESHAP. Lines of communication within EPA and between EPA and emergency management agencies are discussed. A list of contacts responsible at the state level for emergency and disaster activities is provided. Information is provided to help identify potential sources of asbestos releases, and factors are identified that should be considered in planning for the cleanup and disposal of asbestos.« less

Whistleblowers: an essential resource for the sustainable prevention of risks in sociotechnical systems.

PubMed

Benchekroun, Tahar Hakim; Pierlot, Sandrine

2012-01-01

Our world of industry and technology has, over the years, has seen undeniable successes in terms of safety and reliability. But major catastrophes and dramatic accidents continue, even today, to cause major human and material losses and to threaten the environment with pollution on a massive scale. Could these disasters and these accidents have been foreseen and avoided? Would it have been possible to anticipate their occurrence by detecting signals of potential hazards? It is unsettling to notice, through retrospective analysis of such events, that warnings had been issued long before the catastrophe or accident took place. This raises several questions, which we will attempt to address in this paper. Why are whistleblowers often not listened to, threatened, or simply ignored? Why are their warnings viewed as "bad omens" instead of essential resources to ensure safety? Do whistleblowers stand idly by, or do they implement individual and collective strategies to make themselves heard? Which managerial and organizational conditions are conducive to developing empowerment in whistleblowers? Based on four case studies, we attempt to address these questions, and offer a first level of analysis and explanation by proposing and defining two new concepts: operative resilience and strategic resilience.

Orbital debris removal and meteoroid deflection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Jonathan W.; Taylor, Charles R.; Smalley, Larry L.; Dickerson, Thomas

1998-11-01

Orbital debris in low-Earth orbit in the size range from 1 to 10 cm in diameter can be detected but not tracked reliably enough to be avoided by spacecraft. It can cause catastrophic damage even to a shielded spacecraft. With adaptive optics, a ground-based pulsed laser ablating the debris surface can produce enough propulsion in several hundred pulses to cause such debris to reenter the atmosphere. A single laser station could remove all of the 1 - 10 cm debris in three years or less. A technology demonstration of laser space propulsion is proposed which would pave the way for the implementation of such a debris removal system. The cost of the proposed demonstration is comparable with the estimated annual cost of spacecraft operations in the present orbital debris environment. Orbital debris is not the only space junk that is deleterious to the Earth's environment. Collisions with asteroids have caused major havoc to the Earth's biosphere many times in the ancient past. Since the possibility still exists for major impacts of asteroids with the Earth, it shown that it is possible to scale up the systems to prevent these catastrophic collisions providing sufficient early warning is available from new generation space telescopes plus deep space radar tracking.

Laser/space material uncooperative propulsion for orbital debris removal and asteroid, meteoroid, and comet deflection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Jonathan W.; Taylor, Charles R.; Smalley, Larry L.; Dickerson, Thomas

1999-01-01

Orbital debris in low-Earth orbit in the size range from 1 to 10 cm in diameter can be detected but not tracked reliably enough to be avoided by spacecraft. It can cause catastrophic damage even to a shielded spacecraft. With adaptive optics, a ground-based pulsed laser ablating the debris surface can produce enough propulsion in several hundred pulses to cause such debris to reenter the atmosphere. A single laser station could remove all of the 1-10 cm debris in three years or less. A technology demonstration of laser space propulsion is proposed which would pave the way for the implementation of such a debris removal system. The cost of the proposed demonstration is comparable with the estimated annual cost of spacecraft operations in the present orbital debris environment. Orbital debris is not the only space junk that is deleterious to the Earth's environment. Collisions with asteroids have caused major havoc to the Earth's biosphere many times in the ancient past. Since the possibility still exists for major impacts, it is shown that it is possible to scale up the systems to prevent these catastrophic collisions given sufficient early warning.

Some challenges in designing a lunar, Martian, or microgravity CELSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salisbury, Frank B.

The design of a bioregenerative life-support system (a Controlled Ecological Life-Support System or CELSS) for long-duration stays on the moon, Mars, or in a space craft poses formidable problems in engineering and in theory. Technological (hardware) problems include: (1) Creation and control of gas composition and pressure, temperature, light, humidity, and air circulation, especially in microgravity to 1/3xg and in the vacuum of space. Light (energy demanding), CO 2 levels, and the rooting media are special problems for plants. (2) Developing specialized equipment for food preparation. (3) Equipment development for waste recycling. (4) Development of computer systems for environmental monitoring and control as well as several other functions. Problems of theory (software) include: (1) Determining crop species and cultivars (some bred especially for CELSS). (2) Optimum environments and growing and harvesting techniques for each crop. (3) Best and most efficient food-preparation techniques and required equipment. (4) Best and most efficient waste-recycling techniques and equipment. This topic includes questions about the extent of closure, resupply, and waste storage. (5) How to achieve long-term stability. (6) How to avoid catastrophic failures-and how to recover from near-catastrophic failures (for example, plant diseases). Many problems must be solved.

Explosive Event in MON-3 Oxidizer System Resulting from Pressure Transducer Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, David L.; Reynolds, Michael; Anderson, John

2006-01-01

In 2003, a Druck(Registered Trademark) pressure transducer failed catastrophically in a test system circulating nitrogen tetroxide at NASA Johnson Space Center White Sands Test Facility. The cause of the explosion was not immediately obvious since the wetted areas of the pressure transducer were constructed of materials compatible with nitrogen tetroxide. Chemical analysis of the resulting residue and a materials analysis of the diaphragm and its weld zones were used to determine the chain of events that led to the catastrophic failure. Due to excessive dynamic pressure loading in the test system, the diaphragm in the pressure transducer suffered cyclic failure and allowed the silicon oil located behind the isolation diaphragm to mix with the nitrogen tetroxide. The reaction between these two chemicals formed a combination of 2,4-di and 2,4,6-trinitrophenol, which are shock sensitive explosives that caused the failure of the pressure transducer. Further research indicated numerous manufacturers offer similar pressure transducers with silicone oil separated from the test fluid by a thin stainless steel isolation diaphragm. Caution must be exercised when purchasing a pressure transducer for a particular system to avoid costly failures and test system contamination.

A global country-level comparison of the financial burden of surgery.

PubMed

Shrime, M G; Dare, A; Alkire, B C; Meara, J G

2016-10-01

Approximately 30 per cent of the global burden of disease is surgical, and nearly one-quarter of individuals who undergo surgery each year face financial hardship because of its cost. The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery has proposed the elimination of impoverishment due to surgery by 2030, but no country-level estimates exist of the financial burden of surgical access. Using publicly available data, the incidence and risk of financial hardship owing to surgery was estimated for each country. Four measures of financial catastrophe were examined: catastrophic expenditure, and impoverishment at the national poverty line, at 2 international dollars (I$) per day and at I$1·25 per day. Stochastic models of income and surgical costs were built for each country. Results were validated against available primary data. Direct medical costs of surgery put 43·9 (95 per cent posterior credible interval 2·2 to 87·1) per cent of the examined population at risk of catastrophic expenditure, and 57·0 (21·8 to 85·1) per cent at risk of being pushed below I$2 per day. The risk of financial hardship from surgery was highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Correlations were found between the risk of financial catastrophe and external financing of healthcare (positive correlation), national measures of well-being (negative correlation) and the percentage of a country's gross domestic product spent on healthcare (negative correlation). The model performed well against primary data on the costs of surgery. Country-specific estimates of financial catastrophe owing to surgical care are presented. The economic benefits projected to occur with the scale-up of surgery are placed at risk if the financial burden of accessing surgery is not addressed in national policies. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

2012-04-01

Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the repeatability of such catastrophe losses in the country. The validation process also included collaboration between Aon Benfield and its client in order to consider the insurance market penetration in Algeria estimated approximately at 5%. Thus, we believe that the applied approach led towards the production of an earthquake model for Algeria that is scientifically sound and reliable from one side and market and client oriented on the other side.

Psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions: perspectives on comprehensive modeling of individual pain adaptation.

PubMed

Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J

2013-03-01

Pain is a complex construct that contributes to profound physical and psychological dysfunction, particularly in individuals coping with chronic pain. The current paper builds upon previous research, describes a balanced conceptual model that integrates aspects of both psychological vulnerability and resilience to pain, and reviews protective and exacerbating psychosocial factors to the process of adaptation to chronic pain, including pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, and positive psychological resources predictive of enhanced pain coping. The current paper identifies future directions for research that will further enrich the understanding of pain adaptation and espouses an approach that will enhance the ecological validity of psychological pain coping models, including introduction of advanced statistical and conceptual models that integrate behavioral, cognitive, information processing, motivational and affective theories of pain.

Scientific millenarianism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weinberg, A.M.

Today, for the first time, scientific concerns are seriously being addressed that span future times--hundreds, even thousands, or more years in the future. One is witnessing what the author calls scientific millenarianism. Are such concerns for the distant future exercises in futility, or are they real issues that, to the everlasting gratitude of future generations, this generation has identified, warned about and even suggested how to cope with in the distant future? Can the four potential catastrophes--bolide impact, CO{sub 2} warming, radioactive wastes and thermonuclear war--be avoided by technical fixes, institutional responses, religion, or by doing nothing? These are themore » questions addressed in this paper.« less

Infrarenal Abdominal Aortic Pseudoaneurysm: Is It a Real Emergency?

PubMed Central

Massara, Mafalda; Prunella, Roberto; Gerardi, Pasquale; Lillo, Antonio; De Caridi, Giovanni; Serra, Raffaele; Notarstefano, Stefano; Impedovo, Giovanni

2017-01-01

Abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysm is a rare but life-threatening condition that occurs due to penetrating or blunt trauma. Clinical manifestations are variable, and the time interval from the initial trauma to diagnosis is variable. A prompt diagnosis and an aggressive management approach are required to avoid catastrophic complications. Possible treatment options are open surgical repair, endovascular repair, pseudoanerysmal sac thrombosis induction through direct thrombin injection, and coil embolization. Here, we present the case of a 75-year-old man affected by an infrarenal abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysm presenting with abdominal and lumbar pain for 3 days, who was successfully treated with an endograft. PMID:29515707

Magnetar Giant Flares in Multipolar Magnetic Fields. III. Multipolar Magnetic Field Structure Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Guang-Rui; Huang, Lei; Yu, Cong; Shen, Zhi-Qiang

2018-02-01

We have analyzed the multipolar magnetic field structure variation at neutron star surface by means of the catastrophic eruption model and find that the variation of the geometry of multipolar fields on the magnetar surface could result in the catastrophic rearrangement of the magnetosphere, which provides certain physical mechanism for the outburst of giant flares. The magnetospheric model we adopted consists of two assumptions: (1) a helically twisted flux rope is suspended in an ideal force-free magnetosphere around the magnetar, and (2) a current sheet emerges during the flux rope evolution. Magnetic energy accumulates during the flux rope’s gradual evolution along with the variation of magnetar surface magnetic structure before the eruption. The two typical behaviors, either state transition or catastrophic escape, would take place once the flux rope loses equilibrium; thus, tremendous accumulated energy is radiated. We have investigated the equilibrium state of the flux rope and the energy release affected by different multipolar structures and find structures that could trigger violent eruption and provide the radiation approximately 0.5% of the total magnetic energy during the giant flare outburst. Our results provide certain multipolar structures of the neutron star’s magnetic field with an energy release percentage 0.42% in the state transition and 0.51% in the catastrophic escape case, which are sufficient for the previously reported energy release from SGR 1806–20 giant flares.

The relationship of sociodemographic and psychological variables with chronic pain variables in a low-income population.

PubMed

Newman, Andrea K; Van Dyke, Benjamin P; Torres, Calia A; Baxter, Jacob W; Eyer, Joshua C; Kapoor, Shweta; Thorn, Beverly E

2017-09-01

Chronic pain is a pervasive condition that is complicated by economic, educational, and racial disparities. This study analyzes key factors associated with chronic pain within an understudied and underserved population. The sample is characterized by a triple disparity with respect to income, education/literacy, and racial barriers that substantially increase the vulnerability to the negative consequences of chronic pain. The study examined the pretreatment data of 290 participants enrolled in the Learning About My Pain trial, a randomized controlled comparative effectiveness trial of psychosocial interventions (B.E.T., Principal Investigator, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute Contract No. 941; clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT01967342) for chronic pain. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses evaluated the relationships among sociodemographic (sex, age, race, poverty status, literacy, and education level) and psychological (depressive symptoms and pain catastrophizing) variables and pain interference, pain severity, and disability. The indirect effects of depressive symptoms and pain catastrophizing on the sociodemographic and pain variables were investigated using bootstrap resampling. Reversed mediation models were also examined. Results suggested that the experience of chronic pain within this low-income sample is better accounted for by psychological factors than sex, age, race, poverty status, literacy, and education level. Depressive symptoms and pain catastrophizing mediated the relationships between age and pain variables, whereas pain catastrophizing mediated the effects of primary literacy and poverty status. Some reversed models were equivalent to the hypothesized models, suggesting the possibility of bidirectionality. Although cross-sectional findings cannot establish causality, our results highlight the critical role psychological factors play in individuals with chronic pain and multiple health disparities.

On the evolution of specialization with a mechanistic underpinning in structured metapopulations.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2008-03-01

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a discrete-time metapopulation model using the adaptive dynamics approach. The local dynamics in the metapopulation are based on the Beverton-Holt model with mechanistic underpinnings. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources that are spatially heterogeneously distributed to patches that are prone to local catastrophes. We explore the factors favoring the spread of generalist or specialist strategies. Increasing fecundity or decreasing catastrophe probability favors the spread of the generalist strategy and increasing environmental heterogeneity enlarges the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching is possible. When there are no catastrophes, increasing emigration diminishes the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching may occur. Otherwise, the effect of emigration on evolutionary dynamics is non-monotonous: both small and large values of emigration probability favor the spread of the specialist strategies whereas the parameter domain where evolutionary branching may occur is largest when the emigration probability has intermediate values. We compare how different forms of spatial heterogeneity and different models of local growth affect the evolutionary dynamics. We show that even small changes in the resource dynamics may have outstanding evolutionary effects to the consumers.

Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

2017-11-01

The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

Can people catastrophize barriers? An exploratory analysis of the association between pain catastrophizing and perceptions of environmental factors.

PubMed

Ravesloot, Craig; Berendts, Cathy; Schiwal, Alex

2017-01-01

Measurement of the environment is taking on increased importance for understanding variability in participation. Most measures of the environment use subjective ratings, yet little is known about how people appraise the environment. /Hypothesis: We conducted this post-hoc study to examine whether or not catastrophizing, an important variable for understanding how pain contributes to disability, may be related to ratings of the environment. We hypothesized higher pain catastrophizing scores would be associated with greater environmental barriers and fewer facilitators. Individuals with functional impairments (N = 525) were recruited from a population-based random sample of households in a small western city in the United States to complete a paper-based survey about their health and community living experiences. We conducted exploratory regression analyses to investigate associations with environmental factor ratings. We found substantial associations between pain catastrophizing and both environmental barriers and personal factor problems after controlling for demographics, participation assessed by community trips per week, health conditions, impairment and pain level. The models accounted for 28% of the variance in environmental factor ratings and 52% of the variability personal factor ratings. We also present odds ratios for the association between personal characteristics and the likelihood of endorsing EF and PF. A variety of individual characteristics are associated with ratings of both environmental and personal factors that impact participation. Among these, pain catastrophizing is a robust predictor of EF and PF ratings which suggests future research designed specifically to test this relationship may generate useful results for developing interventions to increase participation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the role of negative cognitions in the relationship between ethnicity, sleep and pain in women with temporomandibular joint disorder.

PubMed

Lerman, Sheera F; Campbell, Claudia M; Buenaver, Luis F; Medak, Mary; Phillips, Jane; Polley, Michelle; Smith, Michael T; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A

2018-06-08

Negative cognitions are central to the perpetuation of chronic pain and sleep disturbances. Patients with temporomandibular joint disorder (TMJD), a chronic pain condition characterized by pain and limitation in the jaw area, have a high comorbidity of sleep disturbances that possibly exacerbate their condition. Ethnic group differences are documented in pain, sleep and coping, yet the mechanisms driving these differences are still unclear, especially in clinical pain populations. 156 women (79% white, 21% African American (AA)) diagnosed with TMJD were recruited as part of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of interventions targeting sleep and pain catastrophizing on pain in TMJD. Analysis of baseline data demonstrated that relative to white participants, AA exhibited higher levels of clinical pain, insomnia severity and pain catastrophizing, yet there was no ethnic group difference in negative sleep-related cognitions. Mediation models revealed pain catastrophizing, but not sleep-related cognitions or insomnia severity, to be a significant single mediator of the relationship between ethnicity and clinical pain. Only the helplessness component of catastrophizing together with insomnia severity sequentially mediated the ethnicity-pain relationship. These findings identify pain catastrophizing as a potentially important link between ethnicity and clinical pain and suggest that interventions targeting pain-related helplessness could improve both sleep and pain especially for AA patients. Pain related helplessness and insomnia severity contribute to ethnic differences found in clinical pain among woman with temporomandibular joint disorder. Findings can potentially inform interventions that target insomnia and catastrophizing to assist in reducing ethnic disparities in clinical pain. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Manipulating the polar mismatch at the LaNi O 3 / SrTi O 3 (111) interface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saghayezhian, M.; Wang, Zhen; Guo, Hangwen

2017-04-20

Heteroepitaxial growth of transition-metal oxide films on the open (111) surface of SrTi O 3 results in significant restructuring due to the polar mismatch. Monitoring the structure and composition on an atomic scale of LaNi O 3 / SrTi O 3 (111) interface as a function of processing conditions has enabled the avoidance of the expected polar catastrophe. Using atomically resolved transmission electron microscopy and spectroscopy as well as low-energy electron diffraction, the structure of the thin film, from interface to the surface, has been studied. Here, we show that the proper processing can lead to a structure that ismore » ordered, coherent with the substrate without intermediate structural phase. Using angle-resolved x-ray photoemission spectroscopy we show that the oxygen content of thin films increases with the film thickness, which indicates that the polar mismatch is avoided by the presence of oxygen vacancies.« less

Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

PubMed

Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

2018-04-19

Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic racing fractures should be a priority for the racing industry. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Dissociation of the Tubulin-sequestering and Microtubule Catastrophe-promoting Activities of Oncoprotein 18/Stathmin

PubMed Central

Howell, Bonnie; Larsson, Niklas; Gullberg, Martin; Cassimeris, Lynne

1999-01-01

Oncoprotein 18/stathmin (Op18) has been identified recently as a protein that destabilizes microtubules, but the mechanism of destabilization is currently controversial. Based on in vitro microtubule assembly assays, evidence has been presented supporting conflicting destabilization models of either tubulin sequestration or promotion of microtubule catastrophes. We found that Op18 can destabilize microtubules by both of these mechanisms and that these activities can be dissociated by changing pH. At pH 6.8, Op18 slowed microtubule elongation and increased catastrophes at both plus and minus ends, consistent with a tubulin-sequestering activity. In contrast, at pH 7.5, Op18 promoted microtubule catastrophes, particularly at plus ends, with little effect on elongation rates at either microtubule end. Dissociation of tubulin-sequestering and catastrophe-promoting activities of Op18 was further demonstrated by analysis of truncated Op18 derivatives. Lack of a C-terminal region of Op18 (aa 100–147) resulted in a truncated protein that lost sequestering activity at pH 6.8 but retained catastrophe-promoting activity. In contrast, lack of an N-terminal region of Op18 (aa 5–25) resulted in a truncated protein that still sequestered tubulin at pH 6.8 but was unable to promote catastrophes at pH 7.5. At pH 6.8, both the full length and the N-terminal–truncated Op18 bound tubulin, whereas truncation at the C-terminus resulted in a pronounced decrease in tubulin binding. Based on these results, and a previous study documenting a pH-dependent change in binding affinity between Op18 and tubulin, it is likely that tubulin sequestering observed at lower pH resulted from the relatively tight interaction between Op18 and tubulin and that this tight binding requires the C-terminus of Op18; however, under conditions in which Op18 binds weakly to tubulin (pH 7.5), Op18 stimulated catastrophes without altering tubulin subunit association or dissociation rates, and Op18 did not depolymerize microtubules capped with guanylyl (α, β)-methylene diphosphonate–tubulin subunits. We hypothesize that weak binding between Op18 and tubulin results in free Op18, which is available to interact with microtubule ends and thereby promote catastrophes by a mechanism that likely involves GTP hydrolysis. PMID:9880330

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Brian E. J.; Cronin, Timothy W.; Bitz, Cecilia M., E-mail: brose@albany.edu

Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice−albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity ismore » given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the “deep-water” regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a “Large Ice-Belt Instability” and “Small Ice-Belt Instability” at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps.« less

SPH modeling of the Stickney impact at Phobos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruck Syal, Megan; Rovny, Jared; Owen, J. Michael; Miller, Paul L.

2016-10-01

Stickney crater stretches across nearly half the diameter of ~22-km Phobos, the larger of the two martian moons. The Stickney-forming impact would have had global consequences for Phobos, causing extensive damage to the satellite's interior and initiating large-scale resurfacing through ejecta blanket emplacement. Further, much of the ejected material that initially escaped the moon's tiny gravity (escape velocity of ~11 m/s) would have likely reimpacted on subsequent orbits. Modeling of the impact event is necessary to understand the conditions that allowed this "megacrater" to form without disrupting the entire satellite. Impact simulation results also provide a means to test several different hypotheses for how the mysterious families of parallel grooves may have formed at Phobos.We report on adaptive SPH simulations that successfully generate Stickney while avoiding catastrophic fragmentation of Phobos. Inclusion of target porosity and using sufficient numerical resolution in fully 3-D simulations are key for avoiding over-estimation of target damage. Cratering efficiency follows gravity-dominated scaling laws over a wide range of velocities (6-20 km/s) for the appropriate material constants. While the adaptive SPH results are used to constrain crater volume and fracture patterns within the target, additional questions about the fate of ejecta and final crater morphology within an unusual gravity environment can be addressed with complementary numerical methods. Results from the end of the hydrodynamics-controlled phase (tens of seconds after impact) are linked to a Discrete Element Method code, which can explore these processes over longer time scales (see Schwartz et al., this meeting).This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-695442.

Multi objective multi refinery optimization with environmental and catastrophic failure effects objectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khogeer, Ahmed Sirag

2005-11-01

Petroleum refining is a capital-intensive business. With stringent environmental regulations on the processing industry and declining refining margins, political instability, increased risk of war and terrorist attacks in which refineries and fuel transportation grids may be targeted, higher pressures are exerted on refiners to optimize performance and find the best combination of feed and processes to produce salable products that meet stricter product specifications, while at the same time meeting refinery supply commitments and of course making profit. This is done through multi objective optimization. For corporate refining companies and at the national level, Intea-Refinery and Inter-Refinery optimization is the second step in optimizing the operation of the whole refining chain as a single system. Most refinery-wide optimization methods do not cover multiple objectives such as minimizing environmental impact, avoiding catastrophic failures, or enhancing product spec upgrade effects. This work starts by carrying out a refinery-wide, single objective optimization, and then moves to multi objective-single refinery optimization. The last step is multi objective-multi refinery optimization, the objectives of which are analysis of the effects of economic, environmental, product spec, strategic, and catastrophic failure. Simulation runs were carried out using both MATLAB and ASPEN PIMS utilizing nonlinear techniques to solve the optimization problem. The results addressed the need to debottleneck some refineries or transportation media in order to meet the demand for essential products under partial or total failure scenarios. They also addressed how importing some high spec products can help recover some of the losses and what is needed in order to accomplish this. In addition, the results showed nonlinear relations among local and global objectives for some refineries. The results demonstrate that refineries can have a local multi objective optimum that does not follow the same trends as either global or local single objective optimums. Catastrophic failure effects on refinery operations and on local objectives are more significant than environmental objective effects, and changes in the capacity or the local objectives follow a discrete behavioral pattern, in contrast to environmental objective cases in which the effects are smoother. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Public-private provision of protection measures against natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, M.

2009-04-01

Natural hazards threaten human lives as well as economic values of a society. Due to an increasing population density, augmenting property holdings in congested areas as well as higher frequencies of catastrophic events, the damage potential associated with natural hazards is growing. In order to safeguard societal assets against this threat, active and passive protection measures can be established. While passive protection measures provide for this type of risk by means of thorough land use planning, active protection measures aim at improving safety through technical or biological protective systems and structures. However, these provisions are costly and need to be handled prudentially. In most European countries protection measures against natural hazards are provided by the public. Specific governmental funds have been set up for the establishment of preventive systems as well as for damage compensation payments after the occurrence of catastrophic events. Though, additional capital is urgently needed in order to facilitate the realisation of all necessary projects in this field and to provide for maximal safety. One potential solution for such financial deficiencies can be found in Public Private Partnerships (PPP). PPPs have been implemented as attractive concepts for the funding of diverse projects in the fields of e.g. road construction, municipal, health and social services. In principle, they could also provide alternative funding solutions for the establishment of crucial protective infrastructure in respect of natural hazards, adding private financial means to the currently available public funds. Thereby, the entire capacities for catastrophe funding could be enhanced. Beside PPPs, also alternative funding mechanisms such as the emission of catastrophe bonds, contingent credit lines or leasing arrangements may enhance available capacities for the financing of protection measures. This contribution discusses innovative solutions for the funding of protection measures against natural hazards along with potential positive and negative implications. In particular, the suitability of various forms of Public Private Partnerships will be considered, as several issues need to be declared in order to render such partnerships successful and to avoid undesirable drawbacks. Finally, the author intends to suggest appropriate alternatives to the current system of (almost) exclusive public funding of protection measures against natural hazards.

Co-occurrence of posttraumatic stress symptoms, pain, and disability 12 months after traumatic injury

PubMed Central

Giummarra, Melita J.; Casey, Sara L.; Devlin, Anna; Ioannou, Liane J.; Gibson, Stephen J.; Georgiou-Karistianis, Nellie; Jennings, Paul A.; Cameron, Peter A.; Ponsford, Jennie

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Chronic pain is common after traumatic injury and frequently co-occurs with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and PTSD symptoms (PTSS). Objectives: This study sought to understand the association between probable PTSD, PTSS, and pain. Methods: Four hundred thirty-three participants were recruited from the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry and Victorian State Trauma Registry and completed outcome measures. Participants were predominantly male (n = 324, 74.8%) and aged 17-75 years at the time of their injury (M = 44.83 years, SD = 14.16). Participants completed the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist, Brief Pain Inventory, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire, Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia, EQ-5D-3L and Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire 12 months after hospitalization for traumatic injury. Data were linked with injury and hospital admission data from the trauma registries. Results: Those who reported having current problems with pain were 3 times more likely to have probable PTSD than those without pain. Canonical correlation showed that pain outcomes (pain severity, interference, catastrophizing, kinesiophobia, self-efficacy, and disability) were associated with all PTSSs, but especially symptoms of cognition and affect, hyperarousal, and avoidance. Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, on the contrary, were predominantly associated with high catastrophizing and low self-efficacy. When controlling for demographics, pain and injury severity, depression, and self-efficacy explained the greatest proportion of the total relationship between PTSS and pain-related disability. Conclusion: Persons with both PTSS and chronic pain after injury may need tailored interventions to overcome fear-related beliefs and to increase their perception that they can engage in everyday activities, despite their pain. PMID:29392235

Reduction of pain-related fear and increased function and participation in work-related upper extremity pain (WRUEP): effects of exposure in vivo.

PubMed

de Jong, Jeroen R; Vlaeyen, Johan W S; van Eijsden, Marjon; Loo, Christoph; Onghena, Patrick

2012-10-01

There is increasing evidence that pain-related fear influences the development and maintenance of pain disability, presumably mediated through the fear-related avoidance of valued activities. Individually tailored graded exposure in vivo (GEXP) has been demonstrated to reduce pain-related fear and increase functional abilities in patients with chronic low back pain, neck pain, and complex regional pain syndrome. The current study aimed to test whether these effects generalize towards patients with work-related upper extremity pain. A sequential replicated and randomized single-case experimental phase design with multiple measurements was used. Within each participant, GEXP was compared to a no-treatment baseline period and a no-treatment 6-month follow-up period. Eight patients who reported a high level of pain-related fear were included in the study. Daily changes in pain catastrophizing, pain-related fear, and pain intensity were assessed using a diary, and subjected to randomization tests. Before the start of the baseline period, just after GEXP, and at 6-month follow-up, clinically relevant changes of pain catastrophizing, pain-related fear, perceived harmfulness of physical activity, pain disability, and participation/autonomy were verified. When GEXP was introduced, levels of pain catastrophizing and pain-related fear decreased significantly. Clinically relevant improvements were observed for pain disability, perceived participation, and autonomy. These favourable changes were maintained until 6-month follow-up. The findings of the current study underscore the external validity of a cognitive-behavioural GEXP treatment for patients with chronic pain reporting increased pain-related fear. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Less-invasive stabilization of rib fractures by intramedullary fixation: a biomechanical evaluation.

PubMed

Bottlang, Michael; Helzel, Inga; Long, William; Fitzpatrick, Daniel; Madey, Steven

2010-05-01

This study evaluated intramedullary fixation of rib fractures with Kirschner wires and novel ribs splints. We hypothesized that rib splints can provide equivalent fixation strength while avoiding complications associated with Kirschner wires, namely wire migration and cutout. The durability, strength, and failure modes of rib fracture fixation with Kirschner wires and rib splints were evaluated in 22 paired human ribs. First, intact ribs were loaded to failure to determine their strength. After fracture fixation with Kirschner wires and rib splints, fixation constructs were dynamically loaded to 360,000 cycles at five times the respiratory load to determine their durability. Finally, constructs were loaded to failure to determine residual strength and failure modes. All constructs sustained dynamic loading without failure. Dynamic loading caused three times more subsidence in Kirschner wire constructs (1.2 mm +/- 1.4 mm) than in rib splint constructs (0.4 mm +/- 0.2 mm, p = 0.09). After dynamic loading, rib splint constructs remained 48% stronger than Kirschner wire constructs (p = 0.001). Five of 11 Kirschner wire constructs failed catastrophically by cutting through the medial cortex, leading to complete loss of stability and wire migration through the lateral cortex. The remaining six constructs failed by wire bending. Rib splint constructs failed by development of fracture lines along the superior and interior cortices. No splint construct failed catastrophically, and all splint constructs retained functional reduction and fixation. Because of their superior strength and absence of catastrophic failure mode, rib splints can serve as an attractive alternative to Kirschner wires for intramedullary stabilization of rib fractures, especially in the case of posterior rib fractures where access for plating is limited.

Cost and economic burden of illness over 15 years in Nepal: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Swe, Khin Thet; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Rahman, Md Shafiur; Saito, Eiko; Abe, Sarah K; Gilmour, Stuart; Shibuya, Kenji

2018-01-01

With an increasing burden of non-communicable disease in Nepal and limited progress towards universal health coverage, country- and disease-specific estimates of financial hardship related to healthcare costs need to be evaluated to protect the population effectively from healthcare-related financial burden. To estimate the cost and economic burden of illness and to assess the inequality in the financial burden due to catastrophic health expenditure from 1995 to 2010 in Nepal. This study used nationally representative Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in 1995 and 2010. A Bayesian two-stage hurdle model was used to estimate average cost of illness and Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate the disease-specific incidence of catastrophic health payment and impoverishment. The concentration curve and index were estimated by disease category to examine inequality in healthcare-related financial hardship. Inflation-adjusted mean out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for chronic illness and injury increased by 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively, while the cost of recent acute illness declined by 1.5% between 1995 and 2010. Injury showed the highest incidence of catastrophic expenditure (30.7% in 1995 and 22.4% in 2010) followed by chronic illness (12.0% in 1995 and 9.6% in 2010) and recent acute illness (21.1% in 1995 and 7.8% in 2010). Asthma, diabetes, heart conditions, malaria, jaundice and parasitic illnesses showed increased catastrophic health expenditure over time. Impoverishment due to injury declined most (by 12% change in average annual rate) followed by recent acute illness (9.7%) and chronic illness (9.6%) in 15 years. Inequality analysis indicated that poorer populations with recent acute illness suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in both sample years, while wealthier households with injury and chronic illnesses suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in 2010. To minimize the economic burden of illness, several approaches need to be adopted, including social health insurance complemented with an upgraded community-based health insurance system, subsidy program expansion for diseases with high economic burden and third party liability motor insurance to reduce the economic burden of injury.

Cost and economic burden of illness over 15 years in Nepal: A comparative analysis

PubMed Central

Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Rahman, Md. Shafiur; Saito, Eiko; Abe, Sarah K.; Gilmour, Stuart; Shibuya, Kenji

2018-01-01

Background With an increasing burden of non-communicable disease in Nepal and limited progress towards universal health coverage, country- and disease-specific estimates of financial hardship related to healthcare costs need to be evaluated to protect the population effectively from healthcare-related financial burden. Objectives To estimate the cost and economic burden of illness and to assess the inequality in the financial burden due to catastrophic health expenditure from 1995 to 2010 in Nepal. Methods This study used nationally representative Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in 1995 and 2010. A Bayesian two-stage hurdle model was used to estimate average cost of illness and Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate the disease-specific incidence of catastrophic health payment and impoverishment. The concentration curve and index were estimated by disease category to examine inequality in healthcare-related financial hardship. Findings Inflation-adjusted mean out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for chronic illness and injury increased by 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively, while the cost of recent acute illness declined by 1.5% between 1995 and 2010. Injury showed the highest incidence of catastrophic expenditure (30.7% in 1995 and 22.4% in 2010) followed by chronic illness (12.0% in 1995 and 9.6% in 2010) and recent acute illness (21.1% in 1995 and 7.8% in 2010). Asthma, diabetes, heart conditions, malaria, jaundice and parasitic illnesses showed increased catastrophic health expenditure over time. Impoverishment due to injury declined most (by 12% change in average annual rate) followed by recent acute illness (9.7%) and chronic illness (9.6%) in 15 years. Inequality analysis indicated that poorer populations with recent acute illness suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in both sample years, while wealthier households with injury and chronic illnesses suffered more catastrophic health expenditure in 2010. Conclusion To minimize the economic burden of illness, several approaches need to be adopted, including social health insurance complemented with an upgraded community-based health insurance system, subsidy program expansion for diseases with high economic burden and third party liability motor insurance to reduce the economic burden of injury. PMID:29617393

The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Heritability of Pain Catastrophizing and Associations with Experimental Pain Outcomes: A Twin Study

PubMed Central

Trost, Zina; Strachan, Eric; Sullivan, Michael; Vervoort, Tine; Avery, Ally R.; Afari, Niloofar

2014-01-01

The current study employed a twin paradigm to examine the genetic and environmental contributions to pain catastrophizing as well as the observed association between pain catastrophizing and cold pressor task (CPT) outcomes. Male and female monozygotic (n=206) and dizygotic twins (n=194) from the University of Washington Twin Registry completed a measure of pain catastrophizing and performed a CPT challenge. As expected, pain catastrophizing emerged as a significant predictor of several CPT outcomes, including cold pressor immersion tolerance, pain tolerance, and delayed pain rating. The heritability estimate for pain catastrophizing was found to be 37% with the remaining 63% of variance attributable to unique environmental influence. Additionally, the observed associations between pain catastrophizing and CPT outcomes were not found attributable to shared genetics or environmental exposure, suggesting a direct relationship between catastrophizing and experimental pain outcomes. This study is the first to examine the heritability of pain catastrophizing and potential processes by which pain catastrophizing is related to experimental pain response. PMID:25599234

Development and Validation of a Daily Pain Catastrophizing Scale.

PubMed

Darnall, Beth D; Sturgeon, John A; Cook, Karon F; Taub, Chloe J; Roy, Anuradha; Burns, John W; Sullivan, Michael; Mackey, Sean C

2017-09-01

To date, there is no validated measure for pain catastrophizing at the daily level. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) is widely used to measure trait pain catastrophizing. We sought to develop and validate a brief, daily version of the PCS for use in daily diary studies to facilitate research on mechanisms of catastrophizing treatment, individual differences in self-regulation, and to reveal the nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain outcomes. After adapting the PCS for daily use, we evaluated the resulting 14 items using 3 rounds of cognitive interviews with 30 adults with chronic pain. We refined and tested the final daily PCS in 3 independent, prospective, cross-sectional, observational validation studies conducted in a combined total of 519 adults with chronic pain who completed online measures daily for 14 consecutive days. For study 1 (N = 131), exploratory factor analysis revealed adequate fit and-unexpectedly-unidimensionality for item responses to the daily PCS. Study 2 (N = 177) correlations indicated adequate association with related constructs (anger, anxiety, pain intensity, depression). Similarly, results for study 3 (N = 211) revealed expected correlations for daily PCS and measures of daily constructs including physical activity, sleep, energy level, and positive affect. Results from complex/multilevel confirmatory factor analysis confirmed good fit to a unidimensional model. Scores on the daily PCS were statistically comparable with and more parsimonious than the full 14-item version. Next steps include evaluation of score validity in populations with medical diagnoses, greater demographic diversity, and in patients with acute pain. This article describes the development and validation of a daily PCS. This daily measure may facilitate research that aims to characterize pain mechanisms, individual differences in self-regulation, adaptation, and nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain outcomes. Copyright © 2017 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multilevel structural equation modeling analysis of vulnerabilities and resilience resources influencing affective adaptation to chronic pain.

PubMed

Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J; Arewasikporn, Anne

2014-02-01

The processes of individual adaptation to chronic pain are complex and occur across multiple domains. We examined the social, cognitive, and affective context of daily pain adaptation in individuals with fibromyalgia and osteoarthritis. By using a sample of 260 women with fibromyalgia or osteoarthritis, we examined the contributions of pain catastrophizing, negative interpersonal events, and positive interpersonal events to daily negative and positive affect across 30days of daily diary data. Individual differences and daily fluctuations in predictor variables were estimated simultaneously by utilizing multilevel structural equation modeling techniques. The relationships between pain and negative and positive affect were mediated by stable and day-to-day levels of pain catastrophizing as well as day-to-day positive interpersonal events, but not negative interpersonal events. There were significant and independent contributions of pain catastrophizing and positive interpersonal events to adaptation to pain and pain-related affective dysregulation. These effects occur both between persons and within a person's everyday life. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal bioenergy power generation for climate change mitigation with or without carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes; Lee, David R

2016-10-21

Restricting global warming below 2 °C to avoid catastrophic climate change will require atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Current integrated assessment models (IAMs) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios assume that CDR within the energy sector would be delivered using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Although bioenergy-biochar systems (BEBCS) can also deliver CDR, they are not included in any IPCC scenario. Here we show that despite BECCS offering twice the carbon sequestration and bioenergy per unit biomass, BEBCS may allow earlier deployment of CDR at lower carbon prices when long-term improvements in soil fertility offset biochar production costs. At carbon prices above $1,000 Mg -1 C, BECCS is most frequently (P>0.45, calculated as the fraction of Monte Carlo simulations in which BECCS is the most cost effective) the most economic biomass technology for climate-change mitigation. At carbon prices below $1,000 Mg -1 C, BEBCS is the most cost-effective technology only where biochar significantly improves agricultural yields, with pure bioenergy systems being otherwise preferred.

Optimal bioenergy power generation for climate change mitigation with or without carbon sequestration

PubMed Central

Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes; Lee, David R.

2016-01-01

Restricting global warming below 2 °C to avoid catastrophic climate change will require atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Current integrated assessment models (IAMs) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios assume that CDR within the energy sector would be delivered using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Although bioenergy-biochar systems (BEBCS) can also deliver CDR, they are not included in any IPCC scenario. Here we show that despite BECCS offering twice the carbon sequestration and bioenergy per unit biomass, BEBCS may allow earlier deployment of CDR at lower carbon prices when long-term improvements in soil fertility offset biochar production costs. At carbon prices above $1,000 Mg−1 C, BECCS is most frequently (P>0.45, calculated as the fraction of Monte Carlo simulations in which BECCS is the most cost effective) the most economic biomass technology for climate-change mitigation. At carbon prices below $1,000 Mg−1 C, BEBCS is the most cost-effective technology only where biochar significantly improves agricultural yields, with pure bioenergy systems being otherwise preferred. PMID:27767177

Paleoclimate and Amerindians: Evidence from stable isotopes and atmospheric circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovvorn, M.B.; Frison, G.C.; Tieszen, L.L.

2001-01-01

Two Amerindian demographic shifts are attributed to climate change in the northwest plains of North America: at ???11,000 calendar years before present (yr BP), Amerindian culture apparently split into foothills-mountains vs. plains biomes; and from 8,000-5,000 yr BP, scarce archaeological sites on the open plains suggest emigration during xeric "Altithermal" conditions. We reconstructed paleoclimates from stable isotopes in prehistoric bison bone and relations between weather and fractions of C4 plants in forage. Further, we developed a climate-change model that synthesized stable isotope, existing qualitative evidence (e.g., palynological, erosional), and global climate mechanisms affecting this midlatitude region. Our isotope data indicate significant warming from ???12,400 to 11,900 yr BP, supporting climate-driven cultural separation. However, isotope evidence of apparently wet, warm conditions at 7,300 yr BP refutes emigration to avoid xeric conditions. Scarcity of archaeological sites is best explained by rapid climate fluctuations after catastrophic draining of the Laurentide Lakes, which disrupted North Atlantic Deep Water production and subsequently altered monsoonal inputs to the open plains.

Sparse Reconstruction for Temperature Distribution Using DTS Fiber Optic Sensors with Applications in Electrical Generator Stator Monitoring.

PubMed

Bazzo, João Paulo; Pipa, Daniel Rodrigues; da Silva, Erlon Vagner; Martelli, Cicero; Cardozo da Silva, Jean Carlos

2016-09-07

This paper presents an image reconstruction method to monitor the temperature distribution of electric generator stators. The main objective is to identify insulation failures that may arise as hotspots in the structure. The method is based on temperature readings of fiber optic distributed sensors (DTS) and a sparse reconstruction algorithm. Thermal images of the structure are formed by appropriately combining atoms of a dictionary of hotspots, which was constructed by finite element simulation with a multi-physical model. Due to difficulties for reproducing insulation faults in real stator structure, experimental tests were performed using a prototype similar to the real structure. The results demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to reconstruct images of hotspots with dimensions down to 15 cm, representing a resolution gain of up to six times when compared to the DTS spatial resolution. In addition, satisfactory results were also obtained to detect hotspots with only 5 cm. The application of the proposed algorithm for thermal imaging of generator stators can contribute to the identification of insulation faults in early stages, thereby avoiding catastrophic damage to the structure.

Bifurcations and catastrophes in a nonlinear dynamical model of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and its evolution mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Li, Ming; Wang, Shuo; Zeng, Wenhua; Wang, Zhengxin

2017-07-01

Despite much previous effort, the establishment of an accurate model of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and analysis of its chaotic behavior has proved to be difficult. Based on a phase-space technique, a nonlinear dynamical model of the WPSH ridge line and summer monsoon factors is constructed here from 50 years of data. Using a genetic algorithm, model inversion and parameter optimization are performed. The Lyapunov spectrum, phase portraits, time history, and Poincaré surface of section of the model are analyzed and an initial-value sensitivity test is performed, showing that the model and data have similar phase portraits and that the model is robust. Based on equilibrium stability criteria, four types of equilibria of the model are analyzed. Bifurcations and catastrophes of the equilibria are studied and related to the physical mechanism and actual weather phenomena. The results show that the onset and enhancement of the Somali low-level jet and the latent heat flux of the Indian monsoon are among the most important reasons for the appearance and maintenance of the double-ridge phenomenon. Violent breakout and enhancement of the Mascarene cold high will cause the WPSH to jump northward, resulting in the "empty plum" phenomenon. In the context of bifurcation and catastrophe in the dynamical system, the influence of the factors considered here on the WPSH has theoretical and practical significance. This work also opens the way to new lines of research on the interaction between the WPSH and the summer monsoon system.

The use of UAV to document sloping landscapes to produce digital elevation models to examine environmental degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themistocleous, K.; Agapiou, A.; Papadavid, G.; Christoforou, M.; Hadjimitsis, D. G.

2015-10-01

This paper focuses on the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over the study area of Pissouri in Cyprus to document the sloping landscapes of the area. The study area has been affected by overgrazing, which has led to shifts in the vegetation patterns and changing microtopography of the soil. The UAV images were used to generate digital elevation models (DEMs) to examine the changes in microtopography. Next to that orthophotos were used to detect changes in vegetation patterns. The combined data of the digital elevation models and the orthophotos will be used to detect the occurrence of catastrophic shifts and mechanisms for desertification in the study area due to overgrazing. This study is part of the "CASCADE- Catastrophic shifts in dryland" project.

Effect of lethality on the extinction and on the error threshold of quasispecies.

PubMed

Tejero, Hector; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

2010-02-21

In this paper the effect of lethality on error threshold and extinction has been studied in a population of error-prone self-replicating molecules. For given lethality and a simple fitness landscape, three dynamic regimes can be obtained: quasispecies, error catastrophe, and extinction. Using a simple model in which molecules are classified as master, lethal and non-lethal mutants, it is possible to obtain the mutation rates of the transitions between the three regimes analytically. The numerical resolution of the extended model, in which molecules are classified depending on their Hamming distance to the master sequence, confirms the results obtained in the simple model and shows how an error catastrophe regime changes when lethality is taken in account. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pain Catastrophizing, Pain Intensity, and Dyadic Adjustment Influence Patient and Partner Depression in Metastatic Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Badr, Hoda; Shen, Megan J.

2015-01-01

Objective Metastatic breast cancer can be challenging for couples given the significant pain and distress caused by the disease and its treatment. While the use of catastrophizing (e.g., ruminating, exaggerating) as a pain coping strategy has been associated with depression in breast cancer patients, little is known about the effects of pain intensity on this association. Moreover, even though social relationships are a fundamental resource for couples coping with cancer, no studies have examined whether the quality of the spousal relationship affects the association between catastrophizing and depression. This study prospectively examined these associations. Methods Couples (N=191) completed surveys at the start of treatment for metastatic breast cancer (baseline), and 3 and 6 months later. Results Multilevel models using the couple as the unit of analysis showed patients and partners (i.e., spouses or significant others) who had high levels (+1SD) of dyadic adjustment (DAS7) experienced fewer depressive symptoms than those who had low levels (−1SD) of dyadic adjustment (ps<.01). Moreover, at low levels of dyadic adjustment, when patients engaged in high levels of catastrophizing and had high levels of pain, both patients and their partners reported significantly (p=.002) higher levels of depression than when patients engaged in high levels of catastrophizing but had low levels of pain. Discussion Findings showed that catastrophizing and pain exacerbate depression in couples experiencing marital distress. Programs that seek to alleviate pain and depressive symptoms in metastatic breast cancer may benefit from targeting both members of the couple, screening for marital distress, and teaching more adaptive pain coping strategies. PMID:24402001

Effect of tooth substrate and porcelain thickness on porcelain veneer failure loads in vitro.

PubMed

Ge, Chunling; Green, Chad C; Sederstrom, Dalene A; McLaren, Edward A; Chalfant, James A; White, Shane N

2017-12-19

Bonded porcelain veneers are widely used esthetic restorations. High success and survival rates have been reported, but failures do occur. Fractures are the commonest failure mode. Minimally invasive or thin veneers have gained popularity. Increased enamel and porcelain thickness improve the strength of veneers bonded to enamel, but less is known about dentin or mixed substrates. The purpose of this in vitro study was to measure the influences of tooth substrate type (all-enamel, all-dentin, or half-dentin-half-enamel) and veneer thickness on the loads needed to cause initial and catastrophic porcelain veneer failure. Model discoid porcelain veneer specimens of varying thicknesses were bonded to the flattened facial surfaces of incisors with different enamel and dentin tooth substrates, artificially aged, and loaded to failure with a small sphere. Initial and catastrophic fracture events were identified and analyzed statistically and fractographically. Fracture events included initial Hertzian cracks, intermediate radial cracks, and catastrophic gross failure. All specimens retained some porcelain after catastrophic failure. Cement failure occurred at the cement-porcelain interface not at the cement-tooth interface. Porcelain veneers bonded to enamel were substantially stronger and more damage-tolerant than those bonded to dentin or mixed substrates. Increased porcelain thickness substantially raised the loads to catastrophic failure on enamel substrates but only moderately raised the loads to catastrophic failure on dentin or mixed substrates. The veneers bonded to half-dentin-half-enamel behaved remarkably like those bonded wholly to dentin. Porcelain veneers bonded to enamel were substantially stronger and more damage-tolerant than those bonded to dentin or half-enamel-half dentin. Copyright © 2017 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Olfactory-triggered panic attacks among Khmer refugees: a contextual approach.

PubMed

Hinton, Devon; Pich, Vuth; Chhean, Dara; Pollack, Mark

2004-06-01

One hundred Khmer refugees attending a psychiatric clinic were surveyed to determine the prevalence of olfactory-triggered panic attacks as well as certain characteristics of the episodes, including trigger (i.e. type of odor), frequency, length, somatic symptoms, and the rate of associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions. Forty-five of the 100 patients had experienced an olfactory-triggered panic attack in the last month. Trauma associations and catastrophic cognitions (e.g. fears of a 'wind attack', 'weakness', and 'weak heart') were common during events of olfactory panic. Several case examples are presented. A multifactorial model of the generation of olfactory panic is adduced. The therapeutic implications of this model for the treatment of olfactory panic are discussed.

Understanding Impact and Implications of Data Standards on Post Disaster Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson, Robert

2010-05-01

Although the physical and humanitarian effects of a natural catastrophe are often bound to the locality of the event the financial impacts can have global effects. This is particularly prominent in the re/insurance community, where through a number of market mechanisms and re/insurance structures financial loss is mitigated amongst many companies across the globe. The level of risk a company wishes to retain, given an event, represents the level of risk decision makers deem acceptable. Catastrophe risk modelling tools aid the estimation of risk retention and transfer mechanisms, and increasingly the level of capital required to withstand a catastrophic event. These tools rely on appropriate representations hazard, exposure, vulnerability and insurance conditions that reflect the reality of risk. In addition, accurate estimation of loss potential in the aftermath of a catastrophic event equally relies on the data available to assess the scale of damages experienced and to provide views on the likely scale of loss. A coherent and focussed data and modelling strategy is required to ensure that the risk assessment made is as accurate as possible. A fundamental factor in determining the accuracy of catastrophe output, is the quality of data entered. It is of vital importance, therefore, to have an understanding of both the data used as well as the standard of this data, which will so powerfully impact upon the decision making process. This is perhaps best illustrated through the study of historical events, such as Hurricane Katrina and Ike. The extent of data variance in post disaster analysis clearly demonstrates issues of data discrepancies, vintage, resolution and uncertainty propagation, and reflects on the standard of the original data utilized for modelling purposes and decision making. Using experience gained from recent events, this paper will explore current data variabilities, and the impacts on effective loss estimation, both in relation to reinsurance structuring, but also in terms of effective post-event analysis. It will provide views on how data is currently applied in this context, and will make suggestions as to the most important areas for future data improvements.

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

PubMed

Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

2015-01-01

Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P < .001); more allodynia (7.0 ± 4.1 vs 4.5 ± 3.5, P < .003), depression (25.4 ± 12.4 vs 13.3 ± 9.2, P < .001), and anxiety (11.0 ± 5.2 vs 5.6 ± 4.1, P < .001); and lower self-efficacy (80.1 ± 25.6 vs 104.7 ± 18.9, P < .001) compared with participants without clinical catastrophizing. The odds of chronic migraine were nearly fourfold greater in those with (n = 8/29.6%) vs without (n = 8/10.3%) clinical catastrophizing (odds ratio = 3.68; 95%CI = 1.22-11.10, P = .021). In all participants, higher PCS scores were related to more migraine days (β = 0.331, P = .001), longer attack duration (β = 0.390, P < .001), higher HIT-6 scores (β = 0.425, P < .001), and lower HMSE scores (β = -0.437, P < .001). Higher BMI, but not higher PCS scores, was related to more frequent attacks (β = -0.203, P = .044). One quarter of participants with migraine and obesity reported clinical catastrophizing. These individuals had more frequent attacks/chronicity, longer attack duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

Progress on catastrophic health spending in 133 countries: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Wagstaff, Adam; Flores, Gabriela; Hsu, Justine; Smitz, Marc-François; Chepynoga, Kateryna; Buisman, Leander R; van Wilgenburg, Kim; Eozenou, Patrick

2018-02-01

The goal of universal health coverage (UHC) requires inter alia that families who get needed health care do not suffer undue financial hardship as a result. This can be measured by the percentage of people in households whose out-of-pocket health expenditures are large relative to their income or consumption. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of catastrophic health spending, trends between 2000 and 2010, and associations between catastrophic health spending and macroeconomic and health system variables at the country level. We did a retrospective observational study of health spending using data obtained from household surveys. Of 1566 potentially suitable household surveys, 553 passed quality checks, covering 133 countries between 1984 and 2015. We defined health spending as catastrophic when it exceeded 10% or 25% of household consumption. We estimated global incidence by aggregating up from every country, using a survey for the year in question when available, and interpolation and model-based estimates otherwise. We used multiple regression to explore the relation between a country's incidence of catastrophic spending and gross domestic product (GDP) per person, the Gini coefficient for income inequality, and the share of total health expenditure spent by social security funds, other government agencies, private insurance schemes, and non-profit institutions. The global incidence of catastrophic spending at the 10% threshold was estimated as 9·7% in 2000, 11·4% in 2005, and 11·7% in 2010. Globally, 808 million people in 2010 incurred catastrophic health spending. Across 94 countries with two or more survey datapoints, the population-weighted median annual rate of change of catastrophic payment incidence was positive whatever catastrophic payment incidence measure was used. Incidence of catastrophic payments was correlated positively with GDP per person and the share of GDP spent on health, and incidence correlated negatively with the share of total health spending channelled through social security funds and other government agencies. The proportion of the population that is supposed to be covered by health insurance schemes or by national or subnational health services is a poor indicator of financial protection. Increasing the share of GDP spent on health is not sufficient to reduce catastrophic payment incidence; rather, what is required is increasing the share of total health expenditure that is prepaid, particularly through taxes and mandatory contributions. Rockefeller Foundation, Ministry of Health of Japan, UK Department for International Development (DFID). © 2017 The World Bank and World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier. This is an Open Access Article published under the CC BY 3.0 IGO license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any use of this Article, there should be no suggestion that The World Bank or WHO endorse any specific organisation, products or services. The use of The World Bank or the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the Article's original URL.

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smart, Christian

1998-01-01

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Haresh C.; Dong, Weimin; Stojanovski, Pane; Chen, Alex

2018-01-01

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing "InsurTech" tools to address the much needed "Insurance for the Masses", especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists. This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the "at risk" property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow "Insurance for the Masses-IFM", the role played by parametric insurance products and InsurTech tools will be discussed.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D.; Staub, Florian

2017-11-01

The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called "Goldstone Boson Catastrophe," where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models! We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached.

Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area

PubMed Central

Hao, Guozhu

2016-01-01

A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream. PMID:27391057

Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

PubMed

Jiang, Dan; Hao, Guozhu; Huang, Liwen; Zhang, Dan

2016-01-01

A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.

[Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

PubMed

Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

2005-01-01

To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

When the firm prevents the crash: Avoiding market collapse with partial control

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Market collapse is one of the most dramatic events in economics. Such a catastrophic event can emerge from the nonlinear interactions between the economic agents at the micro level of the economy. Transient chaos might be a good description of how a collapsing market behaves. In this work, we apply a new control method, the partial control method, with the goal of avoiding this disastrous event. Contrary to common control methods that try to influence the system from the outside, here the market is controlled from the bottom up by one of the most basic components of the market—the firm. This is the first time that the partial control method is applied on a strictly economical system in which we also introduce external disturbances. We show how the firm is capable of controlling the system avoiding the collapse by only adjusting the selling price of the product or the quantity of production in accordance to the market circumstances. Additionally, we demonstrate how a firm with a large market share is capable of influencing the demand achieving price stability across the retail and wholesale markets. Furthermore, we prove that the control applied in both cases is much smaller than the external disturbances. PMID:28832608

Conflict Resolution in the Genome: How Transcription and Replication Make It Work.

PubMed

Hamperl, Stephan; Cimprich, Karlene A

2016-12-01

The complex machineries involved in replication and transcription translocate along the same DNA template, often in opposing directions and at different rates. These processes routinely interfere with each other in prokaryotes, and mounting evidence now suggests that RNA polymerase complexes also encounter replication forks in higher eukaryotes. Indeed, cells rely on numerous mechanisms to avoid, tolerate, and resolve such transcription-replication conflicts, and the absence of these mechanisms can lead to catastrophic effects on genome stability and cell viability. In this article, we review the cellular responses to transcription-replication conflicts and highlight how these inevitable encounters shape the genome and impact diverse cellular processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Human Factors Methods to Design Healthcare Work Systems: Instance of the prevention of Adverse Drug Events.

PubMed

Marcilly, Romaric; Beuscart-Zephir, Marie-Catherine

2015-01-01

Human Factors (HF) methods are increasingly needed to support the design of new technologies in order to avoid that introducing those technologies into healthcare work systems induces use errors with potentially catastrophic consequences for the patients. This chapter illustrates the application of HF methods in developing two health technologies aiming at securing the hospital medication management process. Lessons learned from this project highlight the importance of (i) analyzing the work system in which the technology is intended to be implemented, (ii) involving end users in the design process and (iii) the intermediation role of HF between end users and scientific/technical experts.

KSC-06pd1335

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Radar technicians adjust two bird detection radars near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

KSC-06pd1332

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-22

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Bird detection radar is set up near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Gianni Woods

KSC-06pd1333

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-22

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Radar technicians set up bird detection radar near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Gianni Woods

KSC-06pd1334

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Radar technicians adjust two bird detection radars near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

KSC-06pd1336

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Radar technicians adjust two bird detection radars near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

KSC-06pd1331

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-22

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Bird detection radar is delivered near Launch Pad 39B before the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Gianni Woods

Fear of movement, passive coping, manual handling, and severe or radiating pain increase the likelihood of sick leave due to low back pain.

PubMed

Dawson, Anna P; Schluter, Philip J; Hodges, Paul W; Stewart, Simon; Turner, Catherine

2011-07-01

Sick leave due to low back pain (LBP-SL) is costly and compromises workforce productivity. The fear-avoidance model asserts that maladaptive pain-related cognitions lead to avoidance and disuse, which can perpetuate ongoing pain. Staying home from work is an avoidant behavior, and hence pain-related psychological features may help explain LBP-SL. We examined the relative contribution of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and pain coping (active and passive) in LBP-SL in addition to pain characteristics and other psychosocial, occupational, general health, and demographic factors. Two-way interactions between age and gender and candidate exposures were also considered. Our sample comprised 2164 working nurses and midwives with low back pain in the preceding year. Binary logistic regression was performed on cross-sectional data by manual backward stepwise elimination of nonsignificant terms to generate a parsimonious multivariable model. From an extensive array of exposures assessed, fear of movement (women, odds ratio [OR]=1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.08; men, OR=1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.29), passive coping (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.11), pain severity (OR=1.61, 95% CI 1.50-1.72), pain radiation (women, OR=1.45, 95% CI 1.10-1.92; men, OR=4.13, 95% CI 2.15-7.95), and manual handling frequency (OR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05) increased the likelihood of LBP-SL in the preceding 12 months. Administrators and managers were less likely to report LBP-SL (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.27-0.71), and age had a protective effect in individuals in a married or de facto relationship (OR=0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.98). In summary, fear of movement, passive coping, frequent manual handling, and severe or radiating pain increase the likelihood of LBP-SL. Gender-specific responses to pain radiation and fear of movement are evident. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychometric Properties of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-Modified) Among Community Samples in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum; Mukhtar, Firdaus; Ibrahim, Normala; Mohd Sidik, Sherina; Oei, Tian Po Sumantri

2016-12-01

The Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-M) is a common instrument for measuring catastrophic thoughts. In some countries, however, CCQ-M still poses concerns following the lack of appropriate validation among their populations. The current study aimed to examine the factor structure of the CCQ-M, the reliability, and the validity in community samples in Malaysia. The Malay version of CCQ-M and additional measures assessing the symptoms and cognitions relevant to anxiety disorders were completed by 682 university students and general community. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure accounting for 62.2% of the total variance. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two-factor model by deleting four items. The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the total and the two subscales were .94, .90, and .92, respectively. Test-retest reliability analysis was conducted on 82 university students in the interval period of 14 days, and the result was r = .58. Evidence supported the concurrent, convergent, and discriminant validity. In conclusion, the 17-item CCQ-M-Malaysia is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing catastrophic cognitions among Malaysian populations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Population and behavioural responses of native prey to alien predation.

PubMed

Kovacs, Eszter Krasznai; Crowther, Mathew S; Webb, Jonathan K; Dickman, Christopher R

2012-04-01

The introduction of invasive alien predators often has catastrophic effects on populations of naïve native prey, but in situations where prey survive the initial impact a predator may act as a strong selective agent for prey that can discriminate and avoid it. Using two common species of Australian small mammals that have persisted in the presence of an alien predator, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes, for over a century, we hypothesised that populations of both would perform better where the activity of the predator was low than where it was high and that prey individuals would avoid signs of the predator's presence. We found no difference in prey abundance in sites with high and low fox activity, but survival of one species-the bush rat Rattus fuscipes-was almost twofold higher where fox activity was low. Juvenile, but not adult rats, avoided fox odour on traps, as did individuals of the second prey species, the brown antechinus, Antechinus stuartii. Both species also showed reduced activity at foraging trays bearing fox odour in giving-up density (GUD) experiments, although GUDs and avoidance of fox odour declined over time. Young rats avoided fox odour more strongly where fox activity was high than where it was low, but neither adult R. fuscipes nor A. stuartii responded differently to different levels of fox activity. Conservation managers often attempt to eliminate alien predators or to protect predator-naïve prey in protected reserves. Our results suggest that, if predator pressure can be reduced, otherwise susceptible prey may survive the initial impact of an alien predator, and experience selection to discriminate cues to its presence and avoid it over the longer term. Although predator reduction is often feasible, identifying the level of reduction that will conserve prey and allow selection for avoidance remains an important challenge.

Cognitive Emotion Regulation Strategies Associated With the DSM-5 Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Criteria.

PubMed

Kaczkurkin, Antonia N; Zang, Yinyin; Gay, Natalie G; Peterson, Alan L; Yarvis, Jeffrey S; Borah, Elisa V; Dondanville, Katherine A; Hembree, Elizabeth A; Litz, Brett T; Mintz, Jim; Young-McCaughan, Stacey; Foa, Edna B

2017-08-01

Maladaptive cognitive emotion regulation strategies have been proposed to contribute to the maintenance of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Prior work has focused on the relationship between these strategies and PTSD as a whole, rather than on how they are related to each PTSD symptom cluster. The purpose of the current study was to determine whether cognitive emotion regulation strategies are predictive of certain PTSD symptom clusters under the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 5th ed. (DSM-5; American Psychiatric Association, 2013) criteria (intrusive thoughts, avoidance, negative alterations in cognitions and mood, and hyperarousal). Participants included 365 treatment-seeking, active-duty military personnel with PTSD. The negative alterations in cognitions and mood cluster were associated with dysfunctional cognitions: greater negative cognitions about the self, negative cognitions about the world, and self-blame, as well as catastrophizing (Rc2 = .519). The negative alterations in cognitions and mood cluster did not show a strong relationship with blaming others, possibly due to the complex nature of self- and other-blame in this primarily deployment-related PTSD sample. Finally, the intrusive thoughts cluster was associated with catastrophizing (Rc2 = .211), suggesting an association between frequent intrusive memories and excessively negative interpretation of those memories. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Outflow Channels Influencing Martian Climate: Global Circulation Model Simulations with Emplaced Water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago, D. L.; Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R. M.; Sloan, L. C.; Asphaug, E. I.

2005-01-01

The existence of surface water on Mars in past geologic epochs is inferred on the basis of geomorphologic interpretation of spaceflight images, and is supported by the recent Mars Odyssey identification of ice-rich soils [1]. The Mars Exploration Rovers have provided further chemical evidence for past surface hydrologic activity [2]. One issue is whether this water-rich climate ever existed in a steady state, or whether it was triggered by catastrophic events such as large impacts [3], and/ or catastrophic outburst floods, the topic of consideration here.

Catastrophic volcanic collapse: relation to hydrothermal processes.

PubMed

López, D L; Williams, S N

1993-06-18

Catastrophic volcanic collapse, without precursory magmatic activity, is characteristic of many volcanic disasters. The extent and locations of hydrothermal discharges at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia, suggest that at many volcanoes collapse may result from the interactions between hydrothermal fluids and the volcanic edifice. Rock dissolution and hydrothermal mineral alteration, combined with physical triggers such as earth-quakes, can produce volcanic collapse. Hot spring water compositions, residence times, and flow paths through faults were used to model potential collapse at Ruiz. Caldera dimensions, deposits, and alteration mineral volumes are consistent with parameters observed at other volcanoes.

Lifelong learning of human actions with deep neural network self-organization.

PubMed

Parisi, German I; Tani, Jun; Weber, Cornelius; Wermter, Stefan

2017-12-01

Lifelong learning is fundamental in autonomous robotics for the acquisition and fine-tuning of knowledge through experience. However, conventional deep neural models for action recognition from videos do not account for lifelong learning but rather learn a batch of training data with a predefined number of action classes and samples. Thus, there is the need to develop learning systems with the ability to incrementally process available perceptual cues and to adapt their responses over time. We propose a self-organizing neural architecture for incrementally learning to classify human actions from video sequences. The architecture comprises growing self-organizing networks equipped with recurrent neurons for processing time-varying patterns. We use a set of hierarchically arranged recurrent networks for the unsupervised learning of action representations with increasingly large spatiotemporal receptive fields. Lifelong learning is achieved in terms of prediction-driven neural dynamics in which the growth and the adaptation of the recurrent networks are driven by their capability to reconstruct temporally ordered input sequences. Experimental results on a classification task using two action benchmark datasets show that our model is competitive with state-of-the-art methods for batch learning also when a significant number of sample labels are missing or corrupted during training sessions. Additional experiments show the ability of our model to adapt to non-stationary input avoiding catastrophic interference. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Decline and Rise of Coronary Heart Disease: Understanding Public Health Catastrophism

PubMed Central

Greene, Jeremy A.

2013-01-01

The decline of coronary heart disease mortality in the United States and Western Europe is one of the great accomplishments of modern public health and medicine. Cardiologists and cardiovascular epidemiologists have devoted significant effort to disease surveillance and epidemiological modeling to understand its causes. One unanticipated outcome of these efforts has been the detection of early warnings that the decline had slowed, plateaued, or even reversed. These subtle signs have been interpreted as evidence of an impending public health catastrophe. This article traces the history of research on coronary heart disease decline and resurgence and situates it in broader narratives of public health catastrophism. Juxtaposing the coronary heart disease literature alongside the narratives of emerging and reemerging infectious disease helps to identify patterns in how public health researchers create data and craft them into powerful narratives of progress or pessimism. These narratives, in turn, shape public health policy. PMID:23678895

Evaluating core technology capacity based on an improved catastrophe progression method: the case of automotive industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shijia; Liu, Zongwei; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Fuquan

2017-01-01

Subjectivity usually causes large fluctuations in evaluation results. Many scholars attempt to establish new mathematical methods to make evaluation results consistent with actual objective situations. An improved catastrophe progression method (ICPM) is constructed to overcome the defects of the original method. The improved method combines the merits of the principal component analysis' information coherence and the catastrophe progression method's none index weight and has the advantage of highly objective comprehensive evaluation. Through the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of the automotive industry's core technology capacity, the comprehensive evaluation model is established according to the different roles that different indices play in evaluating the overall goal with a hierarchical structure. Moreover, ICPM is developed for evaluating the automotive industry's core technology capacity for the typical seven countries in the world, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.

7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions... INSURANCE CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CATASTROPHIC RISK PROTECTION ENDORSEMENT § 402.4 Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions. Department of Agriculture Federal Crop Insurance...

7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions... INSURANCE CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CATASTROPHIC RISK PROTECTION ENDORSEMENT § 402.4 Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions. Department of Agriculture Federal Crop Insurance...

Simple scaling of catastrophic landslide dynamics.

PubMed

Ekström, Göran; Stark, Colin P

2013-03-22

Catastrophic landslides involve the acceleration and deceleration of millions of tons of rock and debris in response to the forces of gravity and dissipation. Their unpredictability and frequent location in remote areas have made observations of their dynamics rare. Through real-time detection and inverse modeling of teleseismic data, we show that landslide dynamics are primarily determined by the length scale of the source mass. When combined with geometric constraints from satellite imagery, the seismically determined landslide force histories yield estimates of landslide duration, momenta, potential energy loss, mass, and runout trajectory. Measurements of these dynamical properties for 29 teleseismogenic landslides are consistent with a simple acceleration model in which height drop and rupture depth scale with the length of the failing slope.

A nonlinear coupled soil moisture-vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shikuo; Liu, Shida; Fu, Zuntao; Sun, Lan

2005-06-01

Based on the physical analysis that the soil moisture and vegetation depend mainly on the precipitation and evaporation as well as the growth, decay and consumption of vegetation a nonlinear dynamic coupled system of soil moisture-vegetation is established. Using this model, the stabilities of the steady states of vegetation are analyzed. This paper focuses on the research of the vegetation catastrophe point which represents the transition between aridness and wetness to a great extent. It is shown that the catastrophe point of steady states of vegetation depends mainly on the rainfall P and saturation value v0, which is selected to balance the growth and decay of vegetation. In addition, when the consumption of vegetation remains constant, the analytic solution of the vegetation equation is obtained.

Olfactory-Triggered Panic Attacks Among Khmer Refugees: A Contextual Approach

PubMed Central

Hinton, Devon; Pich, Vuth; Chhean, Dara; Pollack, Mark

2009-01-01

One hundred Khmer refugees attending a psychiatric clinic were surveyed to determine the prevalence of olfactory-triggered panic attacks as well as certain characteristics of the episodes, including trigger (i.e. type of odor), frequency, length, somatic symptoms, and the rate of associated flashbacks and catastrophic cognitions. Forty-five of the 100 patients had experienced an olfactory-triggered panic attack in the last month. Trauma associations and catastrophic cognitions (e.g. fears of a ‘wind attack,’ ‘weakness,’ and ‘weak heart’) were common during events of olfactory panic. Several case examples are presented. A multifactorial model of the generation of olfactory panic is adduced. The therapeutic implications of this model for the treatment of olfactory panic are discussed. PMID:15446720

Iranian Household Financial Protection against Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

PubMed Central

Moghadam, M Nekoei; Banshi, M; Javar, M Akbari; Amiresmaili, M; Ganjavi, S

2012-01-01

Background: Protecting households against financial risks is one of objectives of any health system. In this regard, Iran’s fourth five year developmental plan act in its 90th article, articulated decreasing household’s exposure to catastrophic health expenditure to one percent. Hence, this study aimed to measure percentage of Iranian households exposed to catastrophic health expenditures and to explore its determinants. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was carried out retrospectively. Households whose financial contributions to the health system exceeded 40% of disposable income were considered as exposed to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare expenditures were examined by logistic regression and chi-square test. Results: Of 39,088 households, 80 were excluded due to absence of food expenditures. 2.8% of households were exposed to catastrophic health expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare were utilizing ambulatory, hospital, and drug addiction cessation services as well as consuming pharmaceuticals. Socioeconomics characteristics such as health insurance coverage, household size, and economic status were other determinants of exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Conclusion: Iranian health system has not achieved the objective of reducing catastrophic healthcare expenditure to one percent. Inefficient health insurance coverage, different fee schedules practiced by private and public providers, failure of referral system are considered as probable barriers toward decreasing households’ exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. PMID:23193508

Electron-density critical points analysis and catastrophe theory to forecast structure instability in periodic solids.

PubMed

Merli, Marcello; Pavese, Alessandro

2018-03-01

The critical points analysis of electron density, i.e. ρ(x), from ab initio calculations is used in combination with the catastrophe theory to show a correlation between ρ(x) topology and the appearance of instability that may lead to transformations of crystal structures, as a function of pressure/temperature. In particular, this study focuses on the evolution of coalescing non-degenerate critical points, i.e. such that ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and λ 1 , λ 2 , λ 3 ≠ 0 [λ being the eigenvalues of the Hessian of ρ(x) at x c ], towards degenerate critical points, i.e. ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and at least one λ equal to zero. The catastrophe theory formalism provides a mathematical tool to model ρ(x) in the neighbourhood of x c and allows one to rationalize the occurrence of instability in terms of electron-density topology and Gibbs energy. The phase/state transitions that TiO 2 (rutile structure), MgO (periclase structure) and Al 2 O 3 (corundum structure) undergo because of pressure and/or temperature are here discussed. An agreement of 3-5% is observed between the theoretical model and experimental pressure/temperature of transformation.

Can the Relationship Between Rapid Automatized Naming and Word Reading Be Explained by a Catastrophe? Empirical Evidence From Students With and Without Reading Difficulties.

PubMed

Sideridis, Georgios D; Simos, Panagiotis; Mouzaki, Angeliki; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Georgiou, George K

2018-05-01

The purpose of the present study was to explain the moderating role of rapid automatized naming (RAN) in word reading with a cusp catastrophe model. We hypothesized that increases in RAN performance speed beyond a critical point would be associated with the disruption in word reading, consistent with a "generic shutdown" hypothesis. Participants were 587 elementary schoolchildren (Grades 2-4), among whom 87 had reading comprehension difficulties per the IQ-achievement discrepancy criterion. Data were analyzed via a cusp catastrophe model derived from the nonlinear dynamics systems theory. Results indicated that for children with reading comprehension difficulties, as naming speed falls below a critical level, the association between core reading processes (word recognition and decoding) becomes chaotic and unpredictable. However, after the significant common variance attributed to motivation, emotional, and internalizing symptoms measures from RAN scores was partialed out, its role as a bifurcation variable was no longer evident. Taken together, these findings suggest that RAN represents a salient cognitive measure that may be associated with psychoemotional processes that are, at least in part, responsible for unpredictable and chaotic word reading behavior among children with reading comprehension deficits.

Gasto catastrófico en salud en México y sus factores determinantes, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Aguilar, Román; Rivera-Peña, Gustavo

2017-01-01

To assess the financial protection of public health insurance by analyzing the percentage of households with catastrophic health expenditure (HCHE) in Mexico and its relationship with poverty status, size of locality, federal entity, insurance status and items of health spending. Mexican National Survey of Income and Expenditures 2002-2014 was used to estimate the percentage of HCHE. Through a probit model, factors associated with the occurrence of catastrophic spending are identified. Analysis was performed using Stata-SE 12. In 2014 there were 2.08% of HCHE (1.82-2.34%; N = 657,474). The estimated probit model correctly classified 98.2% of HCHE (Pr (D) ≥ 0.5). Factors affecting the catastrophic expenditures were affiliation, presence of chronic disease, hospitalization expenditure, rural condition and that the household is below the food poverty line. The percentage of HCHE decreased in recent years, improving financial protection in health. This decline seems to have stalled, keeping inequities in access to health services, especially in rural population without affiliation to any health institution, below the food poverty line and suffering from chronic diseases. Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

Catastrophic Health Care Expenditure among Older People with Chronic Diseases in 15 European Countries

PubMed Central

Arsenijevic, Jelena; Pavlova, Milena; Rechel, Bernd; Groot, Wim

2016-01-01

Introduction It is well-known that the prevalence of chronic diseases is high among older people, especially those who are poor. Moreover, chronic diseases can result in catastrophic health expenditure. The relationship between chronic diseases and their financial burden on households is thus double-sided, as financial difficulties can give rise to, and result from, chronic diseases. Our aim was to examine the levels of catastrophic health expenditure imposed by private out-of-pocket payments among older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases and cancer in 15 European countries. Methods The SHARE dataset for individuals aged 50+ and their households, collected in 2010–2012 was used. The total number of participants included in this study was N = 51,661. The sample consisted of 43.8% male and 56.2% female participants. The average age was 67 years. We applied an instrumental variable approach for binary instrumented variables known as a treatment-effect model. Results We found that being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases was associated with catastrophic health expenditure among older people even in comparatively wealthy countries with developed risk-pooling mechanisms. When compared to the Netherlands (the country with the lowest share of out-of-pocket payments as a percentage of total health expenditure in our study), older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in Portugal, Poland, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Hungary were more likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. Similar results were observed for diagnosed cardiovascular diseases. In contrast, cancer was not associated with catastrophic health expenditure. Discussion Our study shows that older people with diagnosed chronic diseases face catastrophic health expenditure even in some of the wealthiest countries in Europe. The effect differs across chronic diseases and countries. This may be due to different socio-economic contexts, but also due to the specific characteristics of the different health systems. In view of the ageing of European populations, it will be crucial to strengthen the mechanisms for financial protection for older people with chronic diseases. PMID:27379926

Relevance of physical fitness levels and exercise-related beliefs for self-reported and experimental pain in fibromyalgia: an explorative study.

PubMed

de Bruijn, Saskia T; van Wijck, Albert J M; Geenen, Rinie; Snijders, Tom J; van der Meulen, Wout J T M; Jacobs, Johannes W G; Veldhuijzen, Dieuwke Swaantje

2011-09-01

It has been suggested that low physical fitness is a contributor to pain in fibromyalgia and that exercise-related beliefs play a role in the persistence of this association. Yet the association between physical fitness and pain is hardly explored in detail. The aim of this exploratory study in patients with fibromyalgia was to investigate the association of physical fitness levels with self-reported and experimental pain as well as with pain catastrophizing and activity-avoidance beliefs. Physical fitness of 18 patients with fibromyalgia was examined using maximal ergocycling and the 6-minute walking test (6MWT). Pain intensity was assessed using self-report scales and quantitative sensory testing. A reduced walking distance on the 6MWT was correlated with more severe self-reported pain on the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (r = -0.52, P < 0.05). Recovery of heart rate after ergocycling was correlated with cold pain thresholds (r = 0.70, P < 0.01), pressure pain thresholds (r = -0.70, P < 0.01), and heat wind-up (r = 0.66, P < 0.05). Activity-avoidance beliefs correlated with a lower peak VO2 on the cycle test (r = -0.52, P < 0.05), a shorter distance on the 6MWT (r = -0.56, P < 0.05), and more severe self-reported pain (r = 0.61, P < 0.05), reflecting that patients with activity-avoidance beliefs were less physically fit and experienced more severe pain. The results demonstrate some associations between physical fitness and pain in fibromyalgia and point to the importance of activity avoidance. Although the causal directionality of the associations needs substantiation in clinical research, the findings support the notion that low fitness and activity-avoidance beliefs should be targeted while treating pain in fibromyalgia.

Photogrammetric analysis of concrete specimens and structures for condition assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, Nicolas; Yu, Tzuyang

2016-04-01

Deterioration of civil infrastructure in America demands routine inspection and maintenance to avoid catastrophic failures from occurring. Among many other non-destructive evaluations (NDE), photogrammetry is an accessible and realistic approach used for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of a civil infrastructure systems. The objective of this paper is to explore the capabilities of photogrammetry for locating, sizing, and analyzing the remaining capacity of a specimen or system using point cloud data. Geometric interpretations, composed from up to 70 photographs are analyzed as a mesh or point cloud models. In this case study, concrete, which exhibits a large amount of surface texture features, was thoroughly examined. These evaluative techniques discussed were applied to concrete cylinder models as well as portions of civil infrastructure including buildings, retaining walls, and bridge abutments. In this paper, the aim is to demonstrate the basic analytical functionality of photogrammetry, as well as its applicability to in-situ civil infrastructure systems. In concrete specimens defect length and location can be evaluated in a fully defined model (one with the maximum amount of correctly acquired photographs) with less than 2% error. Error was found to be inversely proportional to the number of acceptable photographs acquired, remaining significantly under 10% error for any model with enough data to render. Furthermore, volumetric stress evaluations were applied using a cross sectional evaluation technique to locate the critical area, and determine the severity of damages. Finally, findings and the accuracy of the results are discussed.

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

[Self-assessment of post-traumatic stress reactions in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City. A survey among medical students].

PubMed

Strenge, H

2003-03-01

The present paper describes psychological sequelae of the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York City in a cohort of 174 medical students (104 females, 70 men, age 18 to 37 years) in their first academic year at the University of Kiel,Germany. For self-report of traumatic stress reactions,the Revised Impact of Event Scale (IES-R) was administered 6 and 9 weeks after the disaster. The students reported weak to moderate levels of distress, the average IES-R scores on the intrusion and avoidance subscales were 11.1 (SD 6.2) and 10.6 (SD 6.4), respectively, and 5.2 (SD 4.1) for the hyperarousal scale. All symptoms had clearly faded at 9 weeks. Students with traumatic life events indicated significantly higher scores in some avoidance items. The current data suggest that the IES-R can be used as a screening measure in future research of trauma-related stress reactions also in people exposed to catastrophes by media coverage.

Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

2018-01-01

Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A comparison between index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods for mapping groundwater potential in an arid region.

PubMed

Al-Abadi, Alaa M; Shahid, Shamsuddin

2015-09-01

In this study, index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods were used for demarcating groundwater potential in an arid region using weighted linear combination techniques in geographical information system (GIS) environment. A case study from Badra area in the eastern part of central of Iraq was analyzed and discussed. Six factors believed to have influence on groundwater occurrence namely elevation, slope, aquifer transmissivity and storativity, soil, and distance to fault were prepared as raster thematic layers to facility integration into GIS environment. The factors were chosen based on the availability of data and local conditions of the study area. Both techniques were used for computing weights and assigning ranks vital for applying weighted linear combination approach. The results of application of both modes indicated that the most influential groundwater occurrence factors were slope and elevation. The other factors have relatively smaller values of weights implying that these factors have a minor role in groundwater occurrence conditions. The groundwater potential index (GPI) values for both models were classified using natural break classification scheme into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. For validation of generated GPI, the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used. According to the obtained area under the curve, the catastrophe model with 78 % prediction accuracy was found to perform better than entropy model with 77 % prediction accuracy. The overall results indicated that both models have good capability for predicting groundwater potential zones.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

PubMed

van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

1994-11-01

In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

Personality and Temperament Correlates of Pain Catastrophizing in Young Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Anja; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

2007-01-01

Pain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of…

Insurance in a climate of change.

PubMed

Mills, Evan

2005-08-12

Catastrophe insurance provides peace of mind and financial security. Climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals. Most forms of insurance are vulnerable, including property, liability, health, and life. It is incumbent on insurers, their regulators, and the policy community to develop a better grasp of the physical and business risks. Insurers are well positioned to participate in public-private initiatives to monitor loss trends, improve catastrophe modeling, address the causes of climate change, and prepare for and adapt to the impacts.

Stability of a slotted ALOHA system with capture effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onozato, Yoshikuni; Liu, Jin; Noguchi, Shoichi

1989-02-01

The stability of a slotted ALOHA system with capture effect is investigated under a general communication environment where terminals are divided into two groups (low-power and high-power) and the capture effect is modeled by capture probabilities. An approximate analysis is developed using catastrophe theory, in which the effects of system and user parameters on the stability are characterized by the cusp catastrophe. Particular attention is given to the low-power group, since it must bear the strain under the capture effect. The stability conditions of the two groups are given explicitly by bifurcation sets.

An automated fluorescence videomicroscopy assay for the detection of mitotic catastrophe

PubMed Central

Rello-Varona, S; Kepp, O; Vitale, I; Michaud, M; Senovilla, L; Jemaà, M; Joza, N; Galluzzi, L; Castedo, M; Kroemer, G

2010-01-01

Mitotic catastrophe can be defined as a cell death mode that occurs during or shortly after a prolonged/aberrant mitosis, and can show apoptotic or necrotic features. However, conventional procedures for the detection of apoptosis or necrosis, including biochemical bulk assays and cytofluorometric techniques, cannot discriminate among pre-mitotic, mitotic and post-mitotic death, and hence are inappropriate to monitor mitotic catastrophe. To address this issue, we generated isogenic human colon carcinoma cell lines that differ in ploidy and p53 status, yet express similar amounts of fluorescent biosensors that allow for the visualization of chromatin (histone H2B coupled to green fluorescent protein (GFP)) and centrosomes (centrin coupled to the Discosoma striata red fluorescent protein (DsRed)). By combining high-resolution fluorescence videomicroscopy and automated image analysis, we established protocols and settings for the simultaneous assessment of ploidy, mitosis, centrosome number and cell death (which in our model system occurs mainly by apoptosis). Time-lapse videomicroscopy showed that this approach can be used for the high-throughput detection of mitotic catastrophe induced by three mechanistically distinct anti-mitotic agents (dimethylenastron (DIMEN), nocodazole (NDZ) and paclitaxel (PTX)), and – in this context – revealed an important role of p53 in the control of centrosome number. PMID:21364633

KSC-06pd1337

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-23

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Two bird detection radars have been set up near Launch Pad 39B to get ready for the July 1 launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

Microstructure and mechanical properties of thermoelectric nanostructured n-type silicon-germanium alloys synthesized employing spark plasma sintering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathula, Sivaiah; Gahtori, Bhasker; Jayasimhadri, M.; Tripathy, S. K.; Tyagi, Kriti; Srivastava, A. K.; Dhar, Ajay

2014-08-01

Owing to their high thermoelectric (TE) figure-of-merit, nanostructured Si80Ge20 alloys are evolving as a potential replacement for their bulk counterparts in designing efficient radio-isotope TE generators. However, as the mechanical properties of these alloys are equally important in order to avoid in-service catastrophic failure of their TE modules, we report the strength, hardness, fracture toughness, and thermal shock resistance of nanostructured n-type Si80Ge20 alloys synthesized employing spark plasma sintering of mechanically alloyed nanopowders of its constituent elements. These mechanical properties show a significant enhancement, which has been correlated with the microstructural features at nano-scale, delineated by transmission electron microscopy.

Linear Augmentation for Stabilizing Stationary Solutions: Potential Pitfalls and Their Application

PubMed Central

Karnatak, Rajat

2015-01-01

Linear augmentation has recently been shown to be effective in targeting desired stationary solutions, suppressing bistablity, in regulating the dynamics of drive response systems and in controlling the dynamics of hidden attractors. The simplicity of the procedure is the main highlight of this scheme but questions related to its general applicability still need to be addressed. Focusing on the issue of targeting stationary solutions, this work demonstrates instances where the scheme fails to stabilize the required solutions and leads to other complicated dynamical scenarios. Examples from conservative as well as dissipative systems are presented in this regard and important applications in dissipative predator—prey systems are discussed, which include preventative measures to avoid potentially catastrophic dynamical transitions in these systems. PMID:26544879

Exotensioned structural members with energy-absorbing effects

DOEpatents

Brockwell, Michael Ian

2014-01-07

Structural members having enhanced load bearing capacity per unit mass include a skeleton structure formed from strips of material. Notches may be placed on the strips and a weave of tensile material placed in the notches and woven around the skeleton structure. At least one pair of structural members can be jointed together to provide very strong joints due to a weave patterns of tensile material, such as Kevlar, that distributes stress throughout the structure, preventing stress from concentrating in one area. Methods of manufacturing such structural members include molding material into skeletons of desired cross section using a matrix of molding segments. Total catastrophic failures in composite materials are substantially avoided and the strength to weight ratio of structures can be increased.

Exotensioned structural members with energy-absorbing effects

DOEpatents

Brockwell, Michael Ian

2017-08-22

Structural members having enhanced load bearing capacity per unit mass include a skeleton structure formed from strips of material. Notches may be placed on the strips and a weave of tensile material placed in the notches and woven around the skeleton structure. At least one pair of structural members can be jointed together to provide very strong joints due to a weave patterns of tensile material, such as Kevlar, that distributes stress throughout the structure, preventing stress from concentrating in one area. Methods of manufacturing such structural members include molding material into skeletons of desired cross section using a matrix of molding segments. Total catastrophic failures in composite materials are substantially avoided and the strength to weight ratio of structures can be increased.

Exotensioned structural members with energy-absorbing effects

DOEpatents

Brockwell, Michael Ian

2015-08-11

Structural members having enhanced load bearing capacity per unit mass include a skeleton structure formed from strips of material. Notches may be placed on the strips and a weave of tensile material placed in the notches and woven around the skeleton structure. At least one pair of structural members can be jointed together to provide very strong joints due to a weave patterns of tensile material, such as Kevlar, that distributes stress throughout the structure, preventing stress from concentrating in one area. Methods of manufacturing such structural members include molding material into skeletons of desired cross section using a matrix of molding segments. Total catastrophic failures in composite materials are substantially avoided and the strength to weight ratio of structures can be increased.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Sustainability Indicators for Coupled Human-Earth Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motesharrei, S.; Rivas, J. R.; Kalnay, E.

2014-12-01

Over the last two centuries, the Human System went from having a small impact on the Earth System (including the Climate System) to becoming dominant, because both population and per capita consumption have grown extremely fast, especially since about 1950. We therefore argue that Human System Models must be included into Earth System Models through bidirectional couplings with feedbacks. In particular, population should be modeled endogenously, rather than exogenously as done currently in most Integrated Assessment Models. The growth of the Human System threatens to overwhelm the Carrying Capacity of the Earth System, and may be leading to catastrophic climate change and collapse. We propose a set of Ecological and Economic "Sustainability Indicators" that can employ large data-sets for developing and assessing effective mitigation and adaptation policies. Using the Human and Nature Dynamical Model (HANDY) and Coupled Human-Climate-Water Model (COWA), we carry out experiments with this set of Sustainability Indicators and show that they are applicable to various coupled systems including Population, Climate, Water, Energy, Agriculture, and Economy. Impact of nonrenewable resources and fossil fuels could also be understood using these indicators. We demonstrate interconnections of Ecological and Economic Indicators. Coupled systems often include feedbacks and can thus display counterintuitive dynamics. This makes it difficult for even experts to see coming catastrophes from just the raw data for different variables. Sustainability Indicators boil down the raw data into a set of simple numbers that cross their sustainability thresholds with a large time-lag before variables enter their catastrophic regimes. Therefore, we argue that Sustainability Indicators constitute a powerful but simple set of tools that could be directly used for making policies for sustainability.

Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

Relationship of Catastrophizing to Fatigue Among Women Receiving Treatment for Breast Cancer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobsen, Paul B.; Andrykowski, Michael A.; Thors, Christina L.

2004-01-01

This study examined the relationship of catastrophizing to fatigue in 80 women receiving chemotherapy (CT) or radiotherapy (RT) for treatment of early stage breast cancer. Findings revealed expected relationships between catastrophizing and fatigue among women receiving RT but not CT. Among RT patients, those high in catastrophizing reported…

Positive Traits Linked to Less Pain through Lower Pain Catastrophizing

PubMed Central

Hood, Anna; Pulvers, Kim; Carrillo, Janet; Merchant, Gina; Thomas, Marie

2011-01-01

The present study examined the association between positive traits, pain catastrophizing, and pain perceptions. We hypothesized that pain catastrophizing would mediate the relationship between positive traits and pain. First, participants (n = 114) completed the Trait Hope Scale, the Life Orientation Test- Revised, and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Participants then completed the experimental pain stimulus, a cold pressor task, by submerging their hand in a circulating water bath (0º Celsius) for as long as tolerable. Immediately following the task, participants completed the Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ-SF). Pearson correlation found associations between hope and pain catastrophizing (r = −.41, p < .01) and MPQ-SF scores (r = −.20, p < .05). Optimism was significantly associated with pain catastrophizing (r = −.44, p < .01) and MPQ-SF scores (r = −.19, p < .05). Bootstrapping, a non-parametric resampling procedure, tested for mediation and supported our hypothesis that pain catastrophizing mediated the relationship between positive traits and MPQ-SF pain report. To our knowledge, this investigation is the first to establish that the protective link between positive traits and experimental pain operates through lower pain catastrophizing. PMID:22199416

Numerical Simulations Of Catastrophic Disruption Of Porous Bodies: Application To Dark-type Asteroids And Kuiper-belt Family Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, M.; Richardson, D. C.; Benz, W.

2010-10-01

Asteroids of dark (e.g. C, D) taxonomic classes as well as Kuiper Belt objects and comets are believed to have high porosity, not only in the form of large voids but also in the form of micro-pores. The presence of such microscale porosity introduces additional physics in the impact process. We have enhanced our 3D SPH hydrocode, used to simulate catastrophic breakups, with a model of porosity [1] and validated it at small scale by comparison with impact experiments on pumice targets [2]. Our model is now ready to be applied to a large range of problems. In particular, accounting for the gravitational phase of an impact, we can study the formation of dark-type asteroid families, such as Veritas, and Kuiper-Belt families, such as Haumea. Recently we characterized for the first time the catastrophic impact energy threshold, usually called Q*D, as a function of the target's diameter, porosity, material strength and impact speed [3]. Regarding the mentioned families, our preliminary results show that accounting for porosity leads to different outcomes that may better represent their properties and constrain their definition. In particular, for Veritas, we find that its membership may need some revision [4]. The parameter space is still large, many interesting families need to be investigated and our model will be applied to a large range of cases. PM, MJ and DCR acknowledge financial support from the French Programme National de Planétologie, NASA PG&G "Small Bodies and Planetary Collisions" and NASA under Grant No. NNX08AM39G issued through the Office of Space Science, respectively. [1] Jutzi et al. 2008. Icarus 198, 242-255; [2] Jutzi et al. 2009. Icarus 201, 802-813; [3] Jutzi et al. 2010. Fragment properties at the catastrophic disruption threshold: The effect of the parent body's internal structure, Icarus 207, 54-65; [4] Michel et al. 2010. Icarus, submitted.

Linguistic Indicators of Pain Catastrophizing in Patients With Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain.

PubMed

Junghaenel, Doerte U; Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E

2017-05-01

The present study examined markers of pain catastrophizing in the word use of patients with chronic pain. Patients (N = 71) completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and wrote about their life with pain. Quantitative word count analysis examined whether the essays contained linguistic indicators of catastrophizing. Bivariate correlations showed that catastrophizing was associated with greater use of first person singular pronouns, such as "I" (r = .27, P ≤ .05) and pronouns referencing other people (r = .28, P ≤ .05). Catastrophizing was further significantly associated with greater use of sadness (r = .35, P ≤ .01) and anger (r = .30, P ≤ .05) words. No significant relationships with positive emotion and cognitive process words were evident. Controlling for patients' engagement in the writing task, gender, age, pain intensity, and neuroticism in multiple regression, the linguistic categories together uniquely explained 13.6% of the variance in catastrophizing (P ≤ .001). First person singular pronouns (β = .24, P ≤ .05) and words relating to sadness (β = .25, P ≤ .05) were significant, and pronouns referencing other people (β = .19, P ≤ .10) were trending. The results suggest that pain catastrophizing is associated with a "linguistic fingerprint" that can be discerned from patients' natural word use. Quantitative word count analysis examined whether pain catastrophizing is reflected in patients' written essays about living with pain. Catastrophizing was associated with more first person singular pronouns, more pronouns referencing other people, and more expressions of sadness and anger. The results can help understand how catastrophizing translates into communicative behaviors. Copyright © 2017 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a catastrophe risk model, is required to explore the casualty implications of different possible hazard scenarios, to assess the proportion of an evacuated population who would owe their lives to an evacuation, and to estimate the economic loss associated with an unnecessary evacuation. This paper will review the developing methodology for applying catastrophe risk modelling to support public policy in evacuation decision-making, and provide illustrations from across the range of natural hazards. Evacuation during volcanic crises is a prime example, recognizing the improving forecasting skill of volcanologists, now able to account probabilistically for precursory seismological, geodetic, and geochemical monitoring data. This methodology will be shown to help civic authorities make sounder risk-informed decisions on the timing and population segmentation of evacuation from both volcanoes and calderas, such as Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, which are in densely populated urban regions.

Strengthening the weak link: Built Environment modelling for loss analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, I.

2012-04-01

Methods to analyse insured losses from a range of natural perils, including pricing by primary insurers and catastrophe modelling by reinsurers, typically lack sufficient exposure information. Understanding the hazard intensity in terms of spatial severity and frequency is only the first step towards quantifying the risk of a catastrophic event. For any given event we need to know: Are any structures affected? What type of buildings are they? How much damaged occurred? How much will the repairs cost? To achieve this, detailed exposure information is required to assess the likely damage and to effectively calculate the resultant loss. Modelling exposures in the Built Environment therefore plays as important a role in understanding re/insurance risk as characterising the physical hazard. Across both primary insurance books and aggregated reinsurance portfolios, the location of a property (a risk) and its monetary value is typically known. Exactly what that risk is in terms of detailed property descriptors including structure type and rebuild cost - and therefore its vulnerability to loss - is often omitted. This data deficiency is a primary source of variations between modelled losses and the actual claims value. Built Environment models are therefore required at a high resolution to describe building attributes that relate vulnerability to property damage. However, national-scale household-level datasets are often not computationally practical in catastrophe models and data must be aggregated. In order to provide more accurate risk analysis, we have developed and applied a methodology for Built Environment modelling for incorporation into a range of re/insurance applications, including operational models for different international regions and different perils and covering residential, commercial and industry exposures. Illustrated examples are presented, including exposure modelling suitable for aggregated reinsurance analysis for the UK and bespoke high resolution modelling for industrial sites in Germany. A range of attributes are included following detailed claims analysis and engineering research with property type, age and condition identified as important differentiators of damage from flood, wind and freeze events.

Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation: adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission.

PubMed

Boldin, Barbara; Kisdi, Éva

2016-03-01

Evolutionary suicide is a riveting phenomenon in which adaptive evolution drives a viable population to extinction. Gyllenberg and Parvinen (Bull Math Biol 63(5):981-993, 2001) showed that, in a wide class of deterministic population models, a discontinuous transition to extinction is a necessary condition for evolutionary suicide. An implicit assumption of their proof is that the invasion fitness of a rare strategy is well-defined also in the extinction state of the population. Epidemic models with frequency-dependent incidence, which are often used to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections or the dynamics of infectious diseases within herds, violate this assumption. In these models, evolutionary suicide can occur through a non-catastrophic bifurcation whereby pathogen adaptation leads to a continuous decline of host (and consequently pathogen) population size to zero. Evolutionary suicide of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission can occur in two ways, with pathogen strains evolving either higher or lower virulence.

Modeling, numerical simulation, and nonlinear dynamic behavior analysis of PV microgrid-connected inverter with capacitance catastrophe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Sichen; Liao, Zhixian; Luo, Xiaoshu; Wei, Duqu; Jiang, Pinqun; Jiang, Qinghong

2018-02-01

The value of the output capacitance (C) should be carefully considered when designing a photovoltaic (PV) inverter since it can cause distortion in the working state of the circuit, and the circuit produces nonlinear dynamic behavior. According to Kirchhoff’s laws and the characteristics of an ideal operational amplifier for a strict piecewise linear state equation, a circuit simulation model is constructed to study the system parameters (time, C) for the current passing through an inductor with an inductance of L and the voltage across the capacitor with a capacitance of C. The developed simulation model uses Runge-Kutta methods to solve the state equations. This study focuses on predicting the fault of the circuit from the two aspects of the harmonic distortion and simulation results. Moreover, the presented model is also used to research the working state of the system in the case of a load capacitance catastrophe. The nonlinear dynamic behaviors in the inverter are simulated and verified.

Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

PubMed

Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

2016-10-01

While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Inequalities in financial risk protection in Bangladesh: an assessment of universal health coverage.

PubMed

Islam, Md Rashedul; Rahman, Md Shafiur; Islam, Zobida; Nurs, Cherri Zhang B; Sultana, Papia; Rahman, Md Mizanur

2017-04-04

Financial risk protection and equity are major components of universal health coverage (UHC), which is defined as ensuring access to health services for all citizens without any undue financial burden. We investigated progress towards UHC financial risk indicators and assessed variability of inequalities in financial risk protection indicators by wealth quintile. We further examined the determinants of different financial hardship indicators related to healthcare costs. A cross-sectional, three-stage probability survey was conducted in Bangladesh, which collected information from 1600 households from August to November 2011. Catastrophic health payments, impoverishment, and distress financing (borrowing or selling assets) were treated as financial hardship indicators in UHC. Poisson regression models were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic payment, impoverishment and distress financing separately. Slope, relative and concentration indices of inequalities were used to assess wealth-based inequalities in financial hardship indicators. The study found that around 9% of households incurred catastrophic payments, 7% faced distress financing, and 6% experienced impoverishing health payments in Bangladesh. Slope index of inequality indicated that the incidence of catastrophic health payment and distress financing among the richest households were 12 and 9 percentage points lower than the poorest households respectively. Multivariable Poisson regression models revealed that all UHC financial hardship indicators were significantly higher among household that had members who received inpatient care or were in the poorest quintile. The presence of a member with chronic illness in a household increased the risk of impoverishment by nearly double. This study identified a greater inequality in UHC financial hardship indicators. Rich households in Bangladesh were facing disproportionately less financial hardship than the poor ones. Households can be protected from financial hardship associated with healthcare costs by implementing risk pooling mechanism, increasing GDP spending on health, and properly monitoring subsidized programs in public health facilities.

Trends in, and projections of, indicators of universal health coverage in Bangladesh, 1995-2030: a Bayesian analysis of population-based household data.

PubMed

Rahman, Md Shafiur; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gilmour, Stuart; Swe, Khin Thet; Krull Abe, Sarah; Shibuya, Kenji

2018-01-01

Many countries are implementing health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030. To understand the progress towards UHC in Bangladesh, we estimated trends in indicators of the health service and of financial risk protection. We also estimated the probability of Bangladesh's achieving of UHC targets of 80% essential health-service coverage and 100% financial risk protection by 2030. We estimated the coverage of UHC indicators-13 prevention indicators and four treatment indicators-from 19 nationally representative population-based household surveys done in Bangladesh from Jan 1, 1991, to Dec 31, 2014. We used a Bayesian regression model to estimate the trend and to predict the coverage of UHC indicators along with the probabilities of achieving UHC targets of 80% coverage of health services and 100% coverage of financial risk protection from catastrophic and impoverishing health payments by 2030. We used the concentration index and relative index of inequality to assess wealth-based inequality in UHC indicators. If the current trends remain unchanged, we estimated that coverage of childhood vaccinations, improved water, oral rehydration treatment, satisfaction with family planning, and non-use of tobacco will achieve the 80% target by 2030. However, coverage of four antenatal care visits, facility-based delivery, skilled birth attendance, postnatal checkups, care seeking for pneumonia, exclusive breastfeeding, non-overweight, and adequate sanitation were not projected to achieve the target. Quintile-specific projections showed wide wealth-based inequality in access to antenatal care, postnatal care, delivery care, adequate sanitation, and care seeking for pneumonia, and this inequality was projected to continue for all indicators. The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment were projected to increase from 17% and 4%, respectively, in 2015, to 20% and 9%, respectively, by 2030. Inequality analysis suggested that wealthiest households would disproportionately face more financial catastrophe than the most disadvantaged households. Despite progress, Bangladesh will not achieve the 2030 UHC targets unless the country scales up interventions related to maternal and child health services, and reforms health financing systems to avoid high dependency on out-of-pocket payments. The introduction of a national health insurance system, increased public funding for health care, and expansion of community-based clinics in rural areas could help to move the country towards UHC. Japan Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

ETIOLOGY, TRIGGERS AND NEUROCHEMICAL CIRCUITS ASSOCIATED WITH UNEXPECTED, EXPECTED, AND LABORATORY-INDUCED PANIC ATTACKS

PubMed Central

Johnson, Philip L.; Federici, Lauren M.; Shekhar, Anantha

2014-01-01

Panic disorder (PD) is a severe anxiety disorder that is characterized by recurrent panic attacks (PA), which can be unexpected (uPA, i.e., no clear identifiable trigger) or expected (ePA). Panic typically involves an abrupt feeling of catastrophic fear or distress accompanied by physiological symptoms such as palpitations, racing heart, thermal sensations, and sweating. Recurrent uPA and ePA can also lead to agoraphobia, where subjects with PD avoid situations that were associated with PA. Here we will review recent developments in our understanding of PD, which includes discussions on: symptoms and signs associated with uPA and ePAs; Diagnosis of PD and the new DSM-V; biological etiology such as heritability and gene x environment and gene x hormonal development interactions; comparisons between laboratory and naturally occurring uPAs and ePAs; neurochemical systems that are associated with clinical PAs (e.g. gene associations; targets for triggering or treating PAs), adaptive fear and panic response concepts in the context of new NIH RDoc approach; and finally strengths and weaknesses of translational animal models of adaptive and pathological panic states. PMID:25130976

Sparse Reconstruction for Temperature Distribution Using DTS Fiber Optic Sensors with Applications in Electrical Generator Stator Monitoring

PubMed Central

Bazzo, João Paulo; Pipa, Daniel Rodrigues; da Silva, Erlon Vagner; Martelli, Cicero; Cardozo da Silva, Jean Carlos

2016-01-01

This paper presents an image reconstruction method to monitor the temperature distribution of electric generator stators. The main objective is to identify insulation failures that may arise as hotspots in the structure. The method is based on temperature readings of fiber optic distributed sensors (DTS) and a sparse reconstruction algorithm. Thermal images of the structure are formed by appropriately combining atoms of a dictionary of hotspots, which was constructed by finite element simulation with a multi-physical model. Due to difficulties for reproducing insulation faults in real stator structure, experimental tests were performed using a prototype similar to the real structure. The results demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to reconstruct images of hotspots with dimensions down to 15 cm, representing a resolution gain of up to six times when compared to the DTS spatial resolution. In addition, satisfactory results were also obtained to detect hotspots with only 5 cm. The application of the proposed algorithm for thermal imaging of generator stators can contribute to the identification of insulation faults in early stages, thereby avoiding catastrophic damage to the structure. PMID:27618040

Polar catastrophe and the structure of KT a 1 - x N b x O 3 surfaces: Results from elastic and inelastic helium atom scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flaherty, F. A.; Trelenberg, T. W.; Li, Jiefang A.

2015-07-13

In this paper, the structure and dynamics of cleaved (001) surfaces of potassium tantalates doped with niobium, KTa 1-xNb xO 3 (KTN), with x ranging from 0% to 30%, were measured by helium atom scattering (HAS). Through HAS time-of-flight (TOF) experiments, a dispersionless branch (Einstein phonon branch) with energy of 13-14meV was observed across the surface Brillouin zone in all samples. When this observation is combined with the results from earlier experimental and theoretical studies on these materials, a consistent picture of the stable surface structure emerges: After cleaving the single-crystal sample, the surface should be composed of equal areasmore » of KO and TaO 2/NbO 2 terraces. The data, however, suggest that K + and O 2- ions migrate from the bulk to the surface, forming a charged KO lattice that is neutralized primarily by additional K + ions bridging pairs of surface oxygens. This structural and dynamic modification at the (001) surface of KTN appears due to its formally charged KO(-1) and TaO 2/NbO 2(+1) layers and avoids a “polar catastrophe.” Finally, this behavior is contrasted with the (001) surface behavior of the fluoride perovskite KMnF 3 with its electrically neutral KF and MnF 2 layers.« less

Polar catastrophe and the structure of KTa 1-xNb xO₃ surfaces: Results from elastic and inelastic helium atom scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flaherty, F. A.; Trelenberg, T. W.; Li, J. A.

2015-07-13

The structure and dynamics of cleaved (001) surfaces of potassium tantalates doped with niobium, KTa 1-xNb xO₃ (KTN), with x ranging from 0% to 30%, were measured by helium atom scattering (HAS). Through HAS time-of-flight (TOF) experiments, a dispersionless branch (Einstein phonon branch) with energy of 13-14 meV was observed across the surface Brillouin zone in all samples. When this observation is combined with the results from earlier experimental and theoretical studies on these materials, a consistent picture of the stable surface structure emerges: After cleaving the single-crystal sample, the surface should be composed of equal areas of KO andmore » TaO₂/NbO₂ terraces. The data, however, suggest that K⁺ and O²⁻ ions migrate from the bulk to the surface, forming a charged KO lattice that is neutralized primarily by additional K⁺ ions bridging pairs of surface oxygens. This structural and dynamic modification at the (001) surface of KTN appears due to its formally charged KO(-1) and TaO₂/NbO₂(+1) layers and avoids a “polar catastrophe.” This behavior is contrasted with the (001) surface behavior of the fluoride perovskite KMnF₃ with its electrically neutral KF and MnF₂ layers.« less

Elimination of strength degrading effects caused by surface microdefect: A prevention achieved by silicon nanotexturing to avoid catastrophic brittle fracture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashyap, Kunal; Kumar, Amarendra; Huang, Chuan-Torng; Lin, Yu-Yun; Hou, Max T.; Andrew Yeh, J.

2015-06-01

The unavoidable occurrence of microdefects in silicon wafers increase the probability of catastrophic fracture of silicon-based devices, thus highlighting the need for a strengthening mechanism to minimize fractures resulting from defects. In this study, a novel mechanism for manufacturing silicon wafers was engineered based on nanoscale reinforcement through surface nanotexturing. Because of nanotexturing, different defect depths synthetically emulated as V-notches, demonstrated a bending strength enhancement by factors of 2.5, 3.2, and 6 for 2-, 7-, and 14-μm-deep V-notches, respectively. A very large increase in the number of fragments observed during silicon fracturing was also indicative of the strengthening effect. Nanotextures surrounding the V-notch reduced the stress concentration factor at the notch tip and saturated as the nanotexture depth approached 1.5 times the V-notch depth. The stress reduction at the V-notch tip measured by micro-Raman spectroscopy revealed that nanotextures reduced the effective depth of the defect. Therefore, the nanotextured samples were able to sustain a larger fracture force. The enhancement in Weibull modulus, along with an increase in bending strength in the nanotextured samples compared to polished single-crystal silicon samples, demonstrated the reliability of the strengthening method. These results suggest that this method may be suitable for industrial implementation.

Reminders of cancer risk and pain catastrophizing: relationships with cancer worry and perceived risk in women with a first-degree relative with breast cancer.

PubMed

Whitney, Colette A; Dorfman, Caroline S; Shelby, Rebecca A; Keefe, Francis J; Gandhi, Vicky; Somers, Tamara J

2018-04-20

First-degree relatives of women with breast cancer may experience increased worry or perceived risk when faced with reminders of their own cancer risk. Worry and risk reminders may include physical symptoms (e.g., persistent breast pain) and caregiving experiences. Women who engage in pain catastrophizing may be particularly likely to experience increased distress when risk reminders are present. We examined the degree to which persistent breast pain and experience as a cancer caregiver were related to cancer worry and perceived risk in first-degree relatives of women with breast cancer (N = 85) and how catastrophic thoughts about breast pain could impact these relationships. There was a significant interaction between persistent breast pain and pain catastrophizing in predicting cancer worry (p = .03); among women who engaged in pain catastrophizing, cancer worry remained high even in the absence of breast pain. Pain catastrophizing also moderated the relationships between caregiving involvement and cancer worry (p = .003) and perceived risk (p = .03). As the degree of caregiving responsibility increased, cancer worry and perceived risk increased for women who engaged in pain catastrophizing; levels of cancer worry and perceived risk remained low and stable for women who did not engage in pain catastrophizing regardless of caregiving experience. The results suggest that first-degree relatives of breast cancer survivors who engage in pain catastrophizing may experience greater cancer worry and perceived risk and may benefit from interventions aimed at reducing catastrophic thoughts about pain.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Anderson, Gregory B.

2016-01-01

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

2009-04-01

Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

Abundance in Capital: Global Risk Sharing and Insurance in a Changing Financial Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Schaper, Christopher

2014-05-01

Insurance has played a viable role in the hedging of homeowners and commercial risks around the world. Countries that have significant penetration in insurance have in addition performed better after large regional or over-regional catastrophic losses. Insurance has hence increased the resilience of western societies. This is opposed to emerging or developing markets with low insurance penetration which have suffered significant drawbacks in their development after large catastrophic events. Examples include the recent Typhoon(s) in the Philippines and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. This presentation will provide insights into the opportunities, views and risk management features a global reinsurance company must assume in order to hedge and mitigate risk across the world. During the past year, an unprecedented amount of new capital has been entering the insurance market, looking for profitable investments outside the much wider capital market. Catastrophe insurance is seen as a valuable alternative to investing in assets that that have shown low returns and high correlation in the recent financial meltdown. The new capital is mostly deployed - or competing with already deployed capital - in the US where insurance penetration is already high. This is opposed to more than half of the world including all developing and most emerging countries which have low insurance penetration and often lack infrastructure hindering new capital to be deployed effectively. What is needed to overcome this obvious deficiency in capital supply and demand? One reason why it is difficult to deploy capital in developing countries is the lack of available exposure information and catastrophe models. This presentation sheds light on the potential science needs of our market and gives an overview of what is being done at Montpelier, a global reinsurance company, to understand catastrophe risk around the globe.

Windstorms and Insured Loss in the UK: Modelling the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewston, R.; Dorling, S.; Viner, D.

2006-12-01

Worldwide, the costs of catastrophic weather events have increased dramatically in recent years, with average annual insured losses rising from a negligible level in 1950 to over $10bn in 2005 (Munich Re 2006). When losses from non-catastrophic weather related events are included this figure is doubled. A similar trend is exhibited in the UK with claims totalling over £6bn for the period 1998-2003, more than twice the value for the previous five years (Dlugolecki 2004). More than 70% of this loss is associated with storms. Extratropical cyclones are the main source of wind damage in the UK. In this research, a windstorm model is constructed to simulate patterns of insured loss associated with wind damage in the UK. Observed daily maximum wind gust speeds and a variety of socioeconomic datasets are utilised in a GIS generated model, which is verified against actual domestic property insurance claims data from two major insurance providers. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events which are anticipated to accompany climate change in the UK will have a direct affect on general insurance, with the greatest impact expected to be on property insurance (Dlugolecki 2004). A range of experiments will be run using Regional Climate Model output data, in conjunction with the windstorm model, to simulate possible future losses resulting from climate change, assuming no alteration to the vulnerability of the building stock. Losses for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070- 2100 will be simulated under the various IPCC emissions scenarios. Munich Re (2006). Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2005. Munich, Munich Re: 52. Dlugolecki, A. (2004). A Changing Climate for Insurance - A summary report for Chief Executives and Policymakers, Association of British Insurers

Integrated development of light armored vehicles based on wargaming simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmarini, Marc; Rapanotti, John

2004-08-01

Vehicles are evolving into vehicle networks through improved sensors, computers and communications. Unless carefully planned, these complex systems can result in excessive crew workload and difficulty in optimizing the use of the vehicle. To overcome these problems, a war-gaming simulator is being developed as a common platform to integrate contributions from three different groups. The simulator, OneSAF, is used to integrate simplified models of technology and natural phenomena from scientists and engineers with tactics and doctrine from the military and analyzed in detail by operations analysts. This approach ensures the modelling of processes known to be important regardless of the level of information available about the system. Vehicle survivability can be improved as well with better sensors, computers and countermeasures to detect and avoid or destroy threats. To improve threat detection and reliability, Defensive Aids Suite (DAS) designs are based on three complementary sensor technologies including: acoustics, visible and infrared optics and radar. Both active armour and softkill countermeasures are considered. In a typical scenario, a search radar, providing continuous hemispherical coverage, detects and classifies the threat and cues a tracking radar. Data from the tracking radar is processed and an explosive grenade is launched to destroy or deflect the threat. The angle of attack and velocity from the search radar can be used by the soft-kill system to carry out an infrared search and track or an illuminated range-gated scan for the threat platform. Upon detection, obscuration, countermanoeuvres and counterfire can be used against the threat. The sensor suite is completed by acoustic detection of muzzle blast and shock waves. Automation and networking at the platoon level contribute to improved vehicle survivability. Sensor data fusion is essential in avoiding catastrophic failure of the DAS. The modular DAS components can be used with Light Armoured Vehicle (LAV) variants including: armoured personnel carriers and direct-fire support vehicles. OneSAF will be used to assess the performance of these DAS-equipped vehicles on a virtual battlefield.

Loss modeling for pricing catastrophic bonds.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

In the research, a loss estimation framework is presented that directly relates seismic : hazard to seismic response to damage and hence to losses. A Performance-Based Earthquake : Engineering (PBEE) approach towards assessing the seismic vulnerabili...

Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS); the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study is to provide proof-of-concept for the development and testing of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET) program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Methods Two interlinked experimental studies will be conducted. Study 1 aims to objectively ascertain if neurophysiological changes occur in the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing, when catastrophizing FMS subjects are exposed to visuals of exercise activities. Study 2 aims to ascertain the preliminary efficacy and feasibility of exposure to visuals of exercise activities as a treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS subjects. Twenty subjects will be selected from a group of FMS patients attending the Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa and randomly allocated to either the VRET (intervention) group or waiting list (control) group. Baseline neurophysiological activity for subjects will be collected in study 1 using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In study 2, clinical improvement in pain catastrophizing will be measured using fMRI (objective) and the pain catastrophizing scale (subjective). Discussion The premise is if exposing FMS patients to visuals of various exercise activities trigger the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing; then as a treatment, repeated exposure to visuals of the exercise activities using a VRET program could possibly decrease exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Proof-of-concept will either be established or negated. The results of this project are envisaged to revolutionize FMS and pain catastrophizing research and in the future, assist health professionals and FMS patients in reducing despondency regarding FMS management. Trial registration PACTR201011000264179 PMID:21529375

Comparing the floquet stability of open and breathing fatigue cracks in an overhung rotordynamic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varney, Philip; Green, Itzhak

2017-11-01

Rotor cracks represent an uncommon but serious threat to rotating machines and must be detected early to avoid catastrophic machine failure. An important aspect of analyzing rotor cracks is understanding their influence on the rotor stability. It is well-known that the extent of rotor instability versus shaft speed is exacerbated by deeper cracks. Consequently, crack propagation can eventually result in an unstable response even if the shaft speed remains constant. Most previous investigations of crack-induced rotor instability concern simple Jeffcott rotors. This work advances the state-of-the-art by (a) providing a novel inertial-frame model of an overhung rotor, and (b) assessing the stability of the cracked overhung rotor using Floquet stability analysis. The rotor Floquet stability analysis is performed for both an open crack and a breathing crack, and conclusions are drawn regarding the importance of appropriately selecting the crack model. The rotor stability is analyzed versus crack depth, external viscous damping ratio, and rotor inertia. In general, this work concludes that the onset of instability occurs at lower shaft speeds for thick rotors, lower viscous damping ratios, and deeper cracks. In addition, when comparing commensurate cracks, the breathing crack is shown to induce more regions of instability than the open crack, though the open crack generally predicts an unstable response for shallower cracks than the breathing crack. Keywords: rotordynamics, stability, rotor cracks.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: SDSS-DR9 photometric redshifts (Brescia+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brescia, M.; Cavuoti, S.; Longo, G.; de Stefano, V.

2014-07-01

We present an application of a machine learning method to the estimation of photometric redshifts for the galaxies in the SDSS Data Release 9 (SDSS-DR9). Photometric redshifts for more than 143 million galaxies were produced. The MLPQNA (Multi Layer Perceptron with Quasi Newton Algorithm) model provided within the framework of the DAMEWARE (DAta Mining and Exploration Web Application REsource) is an interpolative method derived from machine learning models. The obtained redshifts have an overall uncertainty of σ=0.023 with a very small average bias of about 3x10-5 and a fraction of catastrophic outliers of about 5%. After removal of the catastrophic outliers, the uncertainty is about σ=0.017. The catalogue files report in their name the range of DEC degrees related to the included objects. (60 data files).

Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

2013-12-01

Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of gravitationally deformed slopes. Remaining one landslide had been preceded by a linear depression at its top, and the topographic precursors of the remaining one landslide could not been specified.

Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity? An experimental investigation.

PubMed

Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D; Nielsen, L M; Brock, C; Edwards, R R; Drewes, A M

2016-09-01

Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) is a major health problem that is frequently accompanied by debilitating oesophageal pain symptoms. The first objective of the study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and oesophageal pain sensitivity. The second objective was to examine whether catastrophizing was associated with the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. Twenty-five healthy volunteers (median age: 24.0 years; range: 22-31) were recruited and were asked to complete the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). During two subsequent study visits, mechanical, thermal, and electrical pain sensitivity in the oesophagus was assessed before and after inducing oesophageal sensitization using a 30-min intraluminal oesophageal acid perfusion procedure. Analyses were conducted based on data averaged across the two study visits. At baseline, catastrophizing was significantly associated with mechanical (r = -0.42, p < 0.05) and electrical (r = -0.60, p < 0.01) pain thresholds. After acid perfusion, catastrophizing was also significantly associated with mechanical (r = -0.58, p < 0.01) and electrical (r = -0.50, p < 0.05) pain thresholds. Catastrophizing was not significantly associated with thermal pain thresholds. Subsequent analyses revealed that catastrophizing was not significantly associated with the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. Taken together, findings from the present study suggest that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses to noxious stimulation of the oesophagus using an experimental paradigm mimicking features and symptoms experienced by patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). © 2016 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

Hospitalization and catastrophic medical payment: evidence from hospitals located in Tehran.

PubMed

Ghiasvand, Hesam; Sha'baninejad, Hossein; Arab, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash

2014-07-01

Hospitalized patients constitute the main fraction of users in any health system. Financial burden of reimbursement for received services and cares by these users is sometimes unbearable and may lead to catastrophic medical payments. So, designing and implementing effective health prepayments schemes appear to be an effective governmental intervention to reduce catastrophic medical payments and protect households against it. We aimed to calculate the proportion of hospitalized patients exposed to catastrophic medical payments, its determinant factors and its distribution. We conducted a cross sectional study with 400 samples in five hospitals affiliated with Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS). A self-administered questionnaire was distributed among respondents. Data were analyzed by logistic regression and χ(2) statistics. Also, we drew the Lorenz curve and calculated the Gini coefficient in order to present the distribution of catastrophic medical payments burden on different income levels. About 15.05% of patients were exposed to catastrophic medical payments. Also, we found that the educational level of the patient's family head, the sex of the patient's family head, hospitalization day numbers, having made any out of hospital payments linked with the same admission and households annual income levels; were linked with a higher likelihood of exposure to catastrophic medical payments. Also, the Gini coefficient is about 0.8 for catastrophic medical payments distribution. There is a high level of catastrophic medical payments in hospitalized patients. The weakness of economic status of households and the not well designed prepayments schemes on the other hand may lead to this. This paper illustrated a clear picture for catastrophic medical payments at hospital level and suggests applicable notes to Iranian health policymakers and planners.

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

2017-03-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (P<0.05), and CBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (P<0.05). Patients in the CBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

Bridging Scientific Model Outputs with Emergency Response Needs in Catastrophic Earthquake Responses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johannes, Tay W.

2010-01-01

In emergency management, scientific models are widely used for running hazard simulations and estimating losses often in support of planning and mitigation efforts. This work expands utility of the scientific model into the response phase of emergency management. The focus is on the common operating picture as it gives context to emergency…

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

PubMed

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Pain Coping Skills Training for Patients with Elevated Pain Catastrophizing who are Scheduled for Knee Arthroplasty: A Quasi-Experimental Study

PubMed Central

Riddle, Daniel L.; Keefe, Francis J.; Nay, William T.; McKee, Daphne; Attarian, David E.; Jensen, Mark P.

2011-01-01

Objectives To (1) describe a behavioral intervention designed for patients with elevated pain catastrophizing who are scheduled for knee arthroplasty, and (2) use a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the potential efficacy of the intervention on pain severity, catastrophizing cognitions, and disability. Design Quasi-experimental non-equivalent control group design with a 2 month follow-up. Setting Two university-based Orthopedic Surgery departments. Participants Adults scheduled for knee replacement surgery who reported elevated levels of pain catastrophizing. Patients were recruited from two clinics and were assessed prior to surgery and 2 months following surgery. Intervention A group of 18 patients received a psychologist directed pain coping skills training intervention comprising 8 sessions and the other group, a historical cohort of 45 patients, received usual care. Main Outcome Measures WOMAC Pain and Disability scores as well as scores on the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Results Two months following surgery, the patients who received pain coping skills training reported significantly greater reductions in pain severity and catastrophizing, and greater improvements in function as compared to the usual care cohort. Conclusion Pain catastrophizing is known to increase risk of poor outcome following knee arthroplasty. The findings provide preliminary evidence that the treatment may be highly efficacious for reducing pain, catastrophizing, and disability, in patients reporting elevated catastrophizing prior to knee arthroplasty. A randomized clinical trial is warranted to confirm these effects. PMID:21530943

Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

2012-09-01

To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

The role of pain catastrophizing in experimental pain perception.

PubMed

Kristiansen, Frederik L; Olesen, Anne E; Brock, Christina; Gazerani, Parisa; Petrini, Laura; Mogil, Jeffrey S; Drewes, Asbjørn M

2014-03-01

Pain is a subjective experience influenced by multiple factors, and tremendous variety within individuals is present. To evaluate emotional state of pain, catastrophizing score can be used. This study investigated pain catastrophizing ratings in association with experimental pain perception. Experimental pain was induced using thermal heat and cold stimulation of skin, mechanical stimulation of muscle and bone, and thermal, mechanical, and electrical stimulation of the gastrointestinal tract in healthy participants (N = 41). Prior to experimental sessions, a pain catastrophizing questionnaire was filled out by each participant. Based on the median catastophizing score, participants were divided into two groups: noncatastrophizers and low-catastrophizers. No significant difference was found between low-catastrophizers and noncatastrophizers in thermal heat stimulation of skin, mechanical stimulation of muscle and bone, and rectal electrical stimulation (All P > 0.05). Low-catastrophizers were more sensitive to visceral thermal stimulation (4.7%, P = 0.02) and visceral mechanical stimulation (29.7%, P = 0.03). For participants that completed the 120 seconds ice water stimulation, noncatastrophizers reported 13.8% less pain than low-catastrophizers (P = 0.02). A positive correlation between PCS score and pain perception on cold pressor test was found (r = 0.4, P = 0.02). By extrapolating data, further analysis of the total group was performed and no differences (both P > 0.05) were observed. Even small increments in pain catastrophizing score can influence pain perception to deep and tonic stimulations. Catatrophizing may partly explain the variability found in experimental pain studies. © 2013 World Institute of Pain.

Developing a global model of magnetospheric substorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kan, J. R.

1990-09-01

Competing models of magnetospheric substorms are discussed. The definitions of the three substorm phases are presented, and the advantages and drawbacks of the near-earth X-line model, magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling model, low-latitude boundary layer model, and thermal catastrophe model are examined. It is shown that the main challenge to achieving a quantitative understanding of the magnetospheric signatures of substorms is to understand the anomalous dissipation processes in collisionless plasmas.

Limits of Risk Predictability in a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process Model.

PubMed

Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Korniss, Gyorgy; Bakdash, Jonathan Z; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2017-07-27

Most risk analysis models systematically underestimate the probability and impact of catastrophic events (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, and terrorism) by not taking into account interconnectivity and interdependence of risks. To address this weakness, we propose the Cascading Alternating Renewal Process (CARP) to forecast interconnected global risks. However, assessments of the model's prediction precision are limited by lack of sufficient ground truth data. Here, we establish prediction precision as a function of input data size by using alternative long ground truth data generated by simulations of the CARP model with known parameters. We illustrate the approach on a model of fires in artificial cities assembled from basic city blocks with diverse housing. The results confirm that parameter recovery variance exhibits power law decay as a function of the length of available ground truth data. Using CARP, we also demonstrate estimation using a disparate dataset that also has dependencies: real-world prediction precision for the global risk model based on the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report. We conclude that the CARP model is an efficient method for predicting catastrophic cascading events with potential applications to emerging local and global interconnected risks.

Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

Flight Simulator Evaluation of Enhanced Propulsion Control Modes for Emergency Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan, S; Sowers, T.; Owen, A., Karl; Fulton, Christopher, E.; Chicatelli, Amy, K.

2012-01-01

This paper describes piloted evaluation of enhanced propulsion control modes for emergency operation of aircraft. Fast Response and Overthrust modes were implemented to assess their ability to help avoid or mitigate potentially catastrophic situations, both on the ground and in flight. Tests were conducted to determine the reduction in takeoff distance achievable using the Overthrust mode. Also, improvements in Dutch roll damping, enabled by using yaw rate feedback to the engines to replace the function of a stuck rudder, were investigated. Finally, pilot workload and ability to handle the impaired aircraft on approach and landing were studied. The results showed that improvement in all aspects is possible with these enhanced propulsion control modes, but the way in which they are initiated and incorporated is important for pilot comfort and perceived benefit.

KSC-06pd1340

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-27

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - This associated computer image shows data being relayed from the avian radars recently set up on Launch Pad 39B. The computer is one of two in Firing Room 4 of the Launch Control Center. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1338

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-27

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In Firing Room 4 of the Launch Control Center, NASA Test Director Steve Payne points to laptop computers that will display data relayed from the avian radars recently set up on Launch Pad 39B. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Passive band-gap reconfiguration born from bifurcation asymmetry.

PubMed

Bernard, Brian P; Mann, Brian P

2013-11-01

Current periodic structures are constrained to have fixed energy transmission behavior unless active control or component replacement is used to alter their wave propagation characteristics. The introduction of nonlinearity to generate multiple stable equilibria is an alternative strategy for realizing distinct energy propagation behaviors. We investigate the creation of a reconfigurable band-gap system by implementing passive switching between multiple stable states of equilibrium, to alter the level of energy attenuation in response to environmental stimuli. The ability to avoid potentially catastrophic loads is demonstrated by tailoring the bandpass and band-gap regions to coalesce for two stable equilibria and varying an external load parameter to trigger a bifurcation. The proposed phenomenon could be utilized in remote or autonomous applications where component modifications and active control are impractical.

Directly calculated electrical conductivity of hot dense hydrogen from molecular dynamics simulation beyond Kubo-Greenwood formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Qian; Kang, Dongdong; Zhao, Zengxiu; Dai, Jiayu

2018-01-01

Electrical conductivity of hot dense hydrogen is directly calculated by molecular dynamics simulation with a reduced electron force field method, in which the electrons are represented as Gaussian wave packets with fixed sizes. Here, the temperature is higher than electron Fermi temperature ( T > 300 eV , ρ = 40 g / cc ). The present method can avoid the Coulomb catastrophe and give the limit of electrical conductivity based on the Coulomb interaction. We investigate the effect of ion-electron coupled movements, which is lost in the static method such as density functional theory based Kubo-Greenwood framework. It is found that the ionic dynamics, which contributes to the dynamical electrical microfield and electron-ion collisions, will reduce the conductivity significantly compared with the fixed ion configuration calculations.

Learning from near-misses to avoid future catastrophes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillon, Robin L.

2014-11-01

Organizations that fail to use known near-miss data when making operational decisions may be inadvertently rewarding risky behavior. Over time such risk taking compounds as similar near-misses are repeatedly observed and the ability to recognize anomalies and document the events decreases (i.e., normalization of deviance [1,2,3]). History from the space shuttle program shows that only the occasional large failure increases attention to anomalies again. This paper discusses prescriptions for project managers based on several on-going activities at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to improve the lesson learning process for space missions. We discuss how these efforts can contribute to reducing near-miss bias and the normalization of deviance. This research should help organizations design learning processes that draw lessons from near-misses.

Underground storage systems for high-pressure air and gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beam, B. H.; Giovannetti, A.

1975-01-01

This paper is a discussion of the safety and cost of underground high-pressure air and gas storage systems based on recent experience with a high-pressure air system installed at Moffett Field, California. The system described used threaded and coupled oil well casings installed vertically to a depth of 1200 ft. Maximum pressure was 3000 psi and capacity was 500,000 lb of air. A failure mode analysis is presented, and it is shown that underground storage offers advantages in avoiding catastrophic consequences from pressure vessel failure. Certain problems such as corrosion, fatigue, and electrolysis are discussed in terms of the economic life of such vessels. A cost analysis shows that where favorable drilling conditions exist, the cost of underground high-pressure storage is approximately one-quarter that of equivalent aboveground storage.

Composite correlation filter for O-ring detection in stationary colored noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassebrook, Laurence G.

2009-04-01

O-rings are regularly replaced in aircraft and if they are not replaced or if they are installed improperly, they can result in catastrophic failure of the aircraft. It is critical that the o-rings be packaged correctly to avoid mistakes made by technicians during routine maintenance. For this reason, fines may be imposed on the o-ring manufacturer if the o-rings are packaged incorrectly. That is, a single o-ring must be packaged and labeled properly. No o-rings or more than one o-ring per package is not acceptable. We present an industrial inspection system based on real-time composite correlation filtering that has successfully solved this problem in spite of opaque paper o-ring packages. We present the system design including the composite filter design.

The Cell's Sophisticated Army to Defend Against Assaults on DNAThe Cell's Sophisticated Army to Defend Against Assaults on DNA | Center for Cancer Research

Cancer.gov

The maintenance of genome integrity and function is essen-tial for the survival of cells and organisms. Any damage to our genetic material must be immediately sensed and repaired to preserve a cell’s func-tional integrity. Cells are constantly faced with the challenge of protecting their DNA from assaults by damaging chemicals and ultraviolet light. DNA damage that escapes repair can lead to a variety of genetic disorders and diseases, particularly cancer. To avoid this catastrophe, the cell employs an army of DNA repair factors that “rush to the scene” and initiate a cascade of events to repair the damage. Exactly how different repair factors sense DNA damage and orchestrate their concert-ed response is not well understood.

Effective Crack Detection in Railway Axles Using Vibration Signals and WPT Energy.

PubMed

Gómez, María Jesús; Corral, Eduardo; Castejón, Cristina; García-Prada, Juan Carlos

2018-05-17

Crack detection for railway axles is key to avoiding catastrophic accidents. Currently, non-destructive testing is used for that purpose. The present work applies vibration signal analysis to diagnose cracks in real railway axles installed on a real Y21 bogie working on a rig. Vibration signals were obtained from two wheelsets with cracks at the middle section of the axle with depths from 5.7 to 15 mm, at several conditions of load and speed. Vibration signals were processed by means of wavelet packet transform energy. Energies obtained were used to train an artificial neural network, with reliable diagnosis results. The success rate of 5.7 mm defects was 96.27%, and the reliability in detecting larger defects reached almost 100%, with a false alarm ratio lower than 5.5%.

Household catastrophic health expenditures: a comparative analysis of twelve Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

PubMed

Knaul, Felicia Marie; Wong, Rebeca; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez, Oscar

2011-01-01

Compare patterns of catastrophic health expenditures in 12 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Prevalence of catastrophic expenses was estimated uniformly at the household level using household surveys. Two types of prevalence indicators were used based on out-of-pocket health expense: a) relative to an international poverty line, and b) relative to the household's ability to pay net of their food basket. Ratios of catastrophic expenditures were estimated across subgroups defined by economic and social variables. The percent of households with catastrophic health expenditures ranged from 1 to 25% in the twelve countries. In general, rural residence, lowest quintile of income, presence of older adults, and lack of health insurance in the household are associated with higher propensity of catastrophic health expenditures. However, there is vast heterogeneity by country. Cross national studies may serve to examine how health systems contribute to the social protection of Latin American households.

Households encountering with catastrophic health expenditures in Ferdows, Iran.

PubMed

Ghoddoosinejad, Javad; Jannati, Ali; Gholipour, Kamal; Baghban Baghestan, Elham

2014-08-01

Out-of-pocket payments are the main sources of healthcare financing in most developing countries. Healthcare services can impose a massive cost burden on households, especially in developing countries. The purpose of this study was to calculate households encountered with catastrophic healthcare expenditures in Ferdows, Iran. The sample included 100 households representing 20% of all households in Ferdows, Iran. The data were collected using self-administered questionnaire. The ability to pay of households was calculated, and then if costs of household health were at least 40% of their ability to pay, it was considered as catastrophic expenditures. Rate of households encountered to catastrophic health expenditures was estimated to be 24%, of which dentistry services had the highest part in catastrophic health expenditures. Low ability to pay of households should be supported against these expenditures. More equitable health system would solve the problem, although more financial aid should be provided for households encountered to catastrophic costs.

ARE THE ULTRA-FAINT DWARF GALAXIES JUST CUSPS?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolotov, Adi; Hogg, David W.; Willman, Beth, E-mail: az481@nyu.edu

2011-01-20

We develop a technique to investigate the possibility that some of the recently discovered ultra-faint dwarf satellites of the Milky Way might be cusp caustics rather than gravitationally self-bound systems. Such cusps can form when a stream of stars folds, creating a region where the projected two-dimensional surface density is enhanced. In this work, we construct a Poisson maximum likelihood test to compare the cusp and exponential models of any substructure on an equal footing. We apply the test to the Hercules dwarf (d {approx} 113 kpc, M{sub V} {approx} -6.2, e {approx} 0.67). The flattened exponential model is stronglymore » favored over the cusp model in the case of Hercules, ruling out at high confidence that Hercules is a cusp catastrophe. This test can be applied to any of the Milky Way dwarfs, and more generally to the entire stellar halo population, to search for the cusp catastrophes that might be expected in an accreted stellar halo.« less

A high reliability battery management system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moody, M. H.

1986-01-01

Over a period of some 5 years Canadian Astronautics Limited (CAL) has developed a system to autonomously manage, and thus prolong the life of, secondary storage batteries. During the development, the system was aimed at the space vehicle application using nickel cadmium batteries, but is expected to be able to enhance the life and performance of any rechargeable electrochemical couple. The system handles the cells of a battery individually and thus avoids the problems of over, and under, drive that inevitably occur in a battery of cells managed by an averaging system. This individual handling also allow cells to be totally bypassed in the event of failure, thus avoiding the losses associated with low capacity, partial short circuit, and the catastrophe of open circuit. The system has an optional capability of managing redundant batteries simultaneously, adding the advantage of on line reconditioning of one battery, while the other maintains the energy storage capability of the overall system. As developed, the system contains a dedicated, redundant, microprocessor, but the capability exists to have this computing capability time shared, or remote, and operating through a data link. As adjuncts to the basic management system CAL has developed high efficiency, polyphase, power regulators for charge and discharge power conditioning.

Vanishing large ovarian cyst with thyroxine therapy.

PubMed

Dharmshaktu, Pramila; Kutiyal, Aditya; Dhanwal, Dinesh

2013-01-01

A 21-year-old female patient recently diagnosed with severe hypothyroidism was found to have a large ovarian cyst. In view of the large ovarian cyst, she was advised to undergo elective laparotomy in the gynaecology department. She was further evaluated in our medical out-patient department (OPD), and elective surgery was withheld. She was started on thyroxine replacement therapy, and within a period of 4 months, the size of the cyst regressed significantly, thereby improving the condition of the patient significantly. This case report highlights the rare and often missed association between hypothyroidism and ovarian cysts. Although very rare, profound hypothyroidism that can cause ovarian cysts in an adult should always be kept in the differential diagnosis to avoid unnecessary ovarian surgery. Hypothyroidism should be considered in the differential diagnosis of adult females presenting with multicystic ovarian tumours.Adequate thyroid hormone replacement therapy can prevent these patients from undergoing unnecessary and catastrophic ovarian resection.Surgical excision should be considered only when adequate thyroid replacement therapy fails to resolve ovarian enlargement.In younger women with ovarian cysts, it is also desirable to avoid unnecessary surgery so as to not compromise fertility in the future.

Vanishing large ovarian cyst with thyroxine therapy

PubMed Central

Dharmshaktu, Pramila; Kutiyal, Aditya; Dhanwal, Dinesh

2013-01-01

Summary A 21-year-old female patient recently diagnosed with severe hypothyroidism was found to have a large ovarian cyst. In view of the large ovarian cyst, she was advised to undergo elective laparotomy in the gynaecology department. She was further evaluated in our medical out-patient department (OPD), and elective surgery was withheld. She was started on thyroxine replacement therapy, and within a period of 4 months, the size of the cyst regressed significantly, thereby improving the condition of the patient significantly. This case report highlights the rare and often missed association between hypothyroidism and ovarian cysts. Although very rare, profound hypothyroidism that can cause ovarian cysts in an adult should always be kept in the differential diagnosis to avoid unnecessary ovarian surgery. Learning points Hypothyroidism should be considered in the differential diagnosis of adult females presenting with multicystic ovarian tumours.Adequate thyroid hormone replacement therapy can prevent these patients from undergoing unnecessary and catastrophic ovarian resection.Surgical excision should be considered only when adequate thyroid replacement therapy fails to resolve ovarian enlargement.In younger women with ovarian cysts, it is also desirable to avoid unnecessary surgery so as to not compromise fertility in the future. PMID:24683475

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

PubMed

Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-12-01

Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

[The effect of catastrophic health expenditure on the transition to poverty and the persistence of poverty in South Korea].

PubMed

Song, Eun Cheol; Shin, Young Jeon

2010-09-01

The low benefit coverage rate of South Korea's health security system has been continually pointed out. A low benefit coverage rate inevitably causes catastrophic health expenditure, which can be the cause of the transition to poverty and the persistence of poverty. This study was conducted to ascertain the effect of catastrophic health expenditure on the transition to poverty and the persistence of poverty in South Korea. To determine the degree of social mobility, this study was conducted among the 6311 households that participated in the South Korea Welfare Panel Study in both 2006 and 2008. The effect of catastrophic health expenditure on the transition to poverty and the persistence of poverty in South Korea was assessed via multiple logistic regression analysis. The poverty rate in South Korea was 21.6% in 2006 and 20.0% in 2008. 25.1 - 7.3% of the households are facing catastrophic health expenditure. Catastrophic health expenditure was found to affect the transition to poverty even after adjusting for the characteristics of the household and the head of the household, at the threshold of 28% or above. 25.1% of the households in this study were found to be currently facing catastrophic health expenditure, and it was determined that catastrophic health expenditure is a cause of transition to poverty. This result shows that South Korea's health security system is not an effective social safety net. As such, to prevent catastrophic health expenditure and transition to poverty, the benefit coverage of South Korea's health security system needs to the strengthened.

Self-Efficacy for Pain Communication Moderates the Relation Between Ambivalence Over Emotional Expression and Pain Catastrophizing Among Patients With Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Van Denburg, Alyssa N; Shelby, Rebecca A; Caldwell, David S; O'Sullivan, Madeline L; Keefe, Francis J

2018-04-06

Pain catastrophizing (ie, the tendency to focus on and magnify pain sensations and feel helpless in the face of pain) is one of the most important and consistent psychological predictors of the pain experience. The present study examined, in 60 patients with osteoarthritis pain who were married or partnered: 1) the degree to which ambivalence over emotional expression and negative network orientation were associated with pain catastrophizing, and 2) whether self-efficacy for pain communication moderated these relations. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant main effect for the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing; as ambivalence over emotional expression increased, the degree of pain catastrophizing increased. In addition, the interaction between ambivalence over emotional expression and self-efficacy for pain communication was significant, such that as self-efficacy for pain communication increased, the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing became weaker. Negative network orientation was not significantly associated with pain catastrophizing. Findings suggest that higher levels of self-efficacy for pain communication may help weaken the effects of ambivalence over emotional expression on pain catastrophizing. In light of these results, patients may benefit from interventions that target pain communication processes and emotion regulation. This article examines interpersonal processes involved in pain catastrophizing. This study has the potential to lead to better understanding of maladaptive pain coping strategies and possibly better prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Fear of Pain Questionnaire (FOPQ): assessment of pain-related fear among children and adolescents with chronic pain.

PubMed

Simons, Laura E; Sieberg, Christine B; Carpino, Elizabeth; Logan, Deirdre; Berde, Charles

2011-06-01

An important construct in understanding pain-related disability is pain-related fear. Heightened pain-related fear may result in behavioral avoidance leading to disuse, disability, and depression; whereas confrontation of avoided activities may result in a reduction of fear over time and reengagement with activities of daily living. Although there are several measures to assess pain-related fear among adults with chronic pain, none exist for children and adolescents. The aim of the current study was to develop a new tool to assess avoidance and fear of pain with pediatric chronic pain patients: the Fear of Pain Questionnaire, child report (FOPQ-C), and Fear of Pain Questionnaire, parent proxy report (FOPQ-P). After initial pilot testing, the FOPQ-C and FOPQ-P were administered to 299 youth with chronic pain and their parents at an initial multidisciplinary pain treatment evaluation. The FOPQ demonstrated very strong internal consistency of .92 for the child and parent versions. One-month stability estimates were acceptable and suggested responsivity to change. For construct validity, the FOPQ correlated with generalized anxiety, pain catastrophizing, and somatization. Evidence of criterion-related validity was found with significant associations for the FOPQ with pain, healthcare utilization, and functional disability. These results support the FOPQ as a psychometrically sound measure. Pain-related fear plays an important role in relation to emotional distress and pain-related disability among children and adolescents with chronic pain. Identification of patients with high levels of fear avoidance of pain with the FOPQ will inform how to proceed with psychological and physical therapy interventions for chronic pain. Copyright © 2011 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between psychological factors and the effect of home-based physical exercise in women with chronic neck and shoulder pain

PubMed Central

Karlsson, Linn; Gerdle, Björn; Takala, Esa-Pekka; Andersson, Gerhard; Larsson, Britt

2016-01-01

Background: Exercise is often used in the treatment of chronic neck and shoulder muscle pain. It is likely that psychological aspects have an impact on the results of exercise-based treatments. Objectives: (1) To examine the associations between psychological factors and the effect of a home-based physical exercise intervention. (2) To examine differences in psychological factors at baseline between (a) subjects who continued in the trial and those who did not and (b) subjects who completed the intervention and those who did not. Method: A total of 57 women with chronic neck and shoulder pain were included in a home-based exercise intervention trial. Pain intensity, disability, and psychological factors (anxiety and depression symptoms, catastrophizing, fear-avoidance beliefs, self-efficacy, and pain acceptance) were measured at baseline, after 4–6 months, and after 1 year of exercise. Associations between the psychological factors and changes in pain intensity and disability were analysed, as well as differences in psychological factors at baseline between subjects who continued in and completed the intervention, and those who did not. Results: Associations between positive changes in pain intensity and disability were found for low fear-avoidance beliefs and low-pain self-efficacy at baseline. In addition, fear-avoidance beliefs at baseline were higher in the subjects who dropped out of the intervention than in those who continued. Pain acceptance at baseline was higher in the subjects who completed the intervention at the end of the trial. Conclusion: Particularly, fear-avoidance beliefs and pain self-efficacy should be taken into consideration when implementing home-based physical exercise as treatment for chronic neck pain. In addition, high pain acceptance might improve the adherence to prescribed exercise. PMID:27688880

Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing.

PubMed

Boonstra, Anne M; Stewart, Roy E; Köke, Albère J A; Oosterwijk, René F A; Swaan, Jeannette L; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R

2016-01-01

Objectives: The 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients' catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6-7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4-6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low catastrophizing than for those with high catastrophizing. However, we found the opposite. The fact that we did not find the same optimal CP scheme in the subgroups with lower and higher catastrophizing tendency may be due to chance variability.

Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing

PubMed Central

Boonstra, Anne M.; Stewart, Roy E.; Köke, Albère J. A.; Oosterwijk, René F. A.; Swaan, Jeannette L.; Schreurs, Karlein M. G.; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R.

2016-01-01

Objectives: The 0–10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients’ catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6–7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4–6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low catastrophizing than for those with high catastrophizing. However, we found the opposite. The fact that we did not find the same optimal CP scheme in the subgroups with lower and higher catastrophizing tendency may be due to chance variability. PMID:27746750

Modeling insurer-homeowner interactions in managing natural disaster risk.

PubMed

Kesete, Yohannes; Peng, Jiazhen; Gao, Yang; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Kruse, Jamie

2014-06-01

The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game-theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility-based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer-insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full-scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders-primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

PubMed

Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

2017-07-01

To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (p<0.05). Catastrophic injury incidence rates per Union ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

2009-01-01

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

SPICE Work Package 3: Modelling the Effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driscoll, Simon

2015-04-01

This talk presents the results of the SPICE Work Package 3. There is an obvious need for methods to verify the accuracy of geoengineering given no observations of a geoengineering programme. Accordingly, model ability in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions is discussed using analysis of CMIP5 data and different configurations of the HadGEM2 model. With the HadGEM2-L60 model shown to be substantially better in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions, simulations of GeoMIP's G4 scenario are performed. Simulated impacts of geoengineering are described, and asymmetries between the immediate onset and immediate cessation ('termination') of geoengineering are analysed. Whilst a rapid large increase in stratospheric sulphate aerosols (such as from volcanic eruptions) can cause substantial damage, most volcanic eruptions in general are not catastrophic. One may therefore suspect that an 'equal but opposite' change in radiative forcing from termination may therefore not be catastrophic, if the climatic response is simulated to be symmetric. HadGEM2 simulations reveal a substantially more rapid change in variables such as near-surface temperature and precipitation following termination than the onset, indicating that termination may be substantially more damaging and even catastrophic. Some suggestions for hemispherically asymmetric geoengineering have been proposed as a way to reduce Northern Hemisphere sea ice, for example, with lesser impacts on the rest of the climate. However, HadGEM2 simulations are performed and observations analysed following volcanic eruptions. Both indicate substantial averse consequences from hemispherically asymmetric loading of stratospheric loading on precipitation in the Sahelian region - a vulnerable region where drought has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and created millions of refugees in the past.

Assessing the catastrophic effects of out-of-pocket healthcare payments prior to the uptake of a nationwide health insurance scheme in Ghana

PubMed Central

Akazili, James; McIntyre, Diane; Kanmiki, Edmund W.; Gyapong, John; Oduro, Abraham; Sankoh, Osman; Ataguba, John E.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Financial risk protection against the cost of unforeseen healthcare has gained global attention in recent years. Although Ghana implemented a nationwide health insurance scheme with a goal of reducing financial barriers to accessing healthcare and addressing impoverishing effects of out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare payments, there is a paucity of knowledge on the extent of financial catastrophe of such payments in Ghana. Thus, this paper assesses the catastrophic effect of OOP healthcare payments in Ghana. Methods: Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS 5) data collected in 2005/2006 are used in this study. Catastrophic effect of OOP healthcare payments is assessed using various thresholds of total household expenditure and non-food expenditure. Furthermore, four indices, namely the catastrophic payment headcount, catastrophic payment gap, weighted catastrophic payment headcount and weighted catastrophic payment gap, are defined and computed. Results: As at 2005/2006, it was estimated that 11.0% of households in Ghana spent over 5% of their total household expenditure on healthcare OOP. However, after adjusting for the concentration of such spending, it decreased to 10.9%. Also 10.7% of households spent more than 10% of their non-food consumption expenditure on OOP healthcare payments. Furthermore, about 2.6% of households are observed to have spent in excess of 20% of their total household income on healthcare OOP. With the exception of the 5% threshold of household expenditure, because the concentration indices of these expenditures are negative, the burden of such expenditures rests more on the poor. Conclusions: Significant levels of financial catastrophe existed in Ghana prior to the uptake of the national health insurance scheme. Poorer households were at a higher risk than the relatively well-off households. The results of this study present baseline assessment of the impact of Ghana’s health insurance policy on catastrophic healthcare payments. Thus, there is a need for continuous monitoring of financial catastrophe in the system to ensure that households are adequately protected. PMID:28485675

The effect of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a computational interstellar dust system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liffman, Kurt

1990-01-01

The effects of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a the interstellar dust system are computed using a Monte Carlo computer model. The Monte Carlo code has as its basis an analytic solution of the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium, described by Liffman and Clayton (1989). The model is subjected to numerous different interstellar processes as it transfers from one interstellar phase to another. Collisional fragmentation was found to be the dominant physical process that shapes the size spectrum of interstellar dust. It was found that, in the diffuse cloud phase, 90 percent of the refractory material is locked up in the dust grains, primarily due to accretion in the molecular medium. This result is consistent with the observed depletions of silicon. Depletions were found to be affected only slightly by diffuse cloud accretion.

The Hungtsaiping landslide:A kinematic model based on morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.-K.; Chu, H.-K.; Lo, C.-M.; Lin, M.-L.

2012-04-01

A large and deep-seated landslide at Hungtsaiping was triggered by the 7.3 magnitude 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Extensive site investigations of the landslide were conducted including field reconnaissance, geophysical exploration, borehole logs, and laboratory experiments. Thick colluvium was found around the landslide area and indicated the occurrence of a large ancient landslide. This study presents the catastrophic landslide event which occurred during the Chi-Chi earthquake. The mechanism of the 1999 landslide which cannot be revealed by the underground exploration data alone, is clarified. This research include investigations of the landslide kinematic process and the deposition geometry. A 3D discrete element method (program), PFC3D, was used to model the kinematic process that led to the landslide. The proposed procedure enables a rational and efficient way to simulate the landslide dynamic process. Key word: Hungtsaiping catastrophic landslide, kinematic process, deposition geometry, discrete element method

On the CCN (de)activation nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabas, Sylwester; Shima, Shin-ichiro

2017-09-01

We take into consideration the evolution of particle size in a monodisperse aerosol population during activation and deactivation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Our analysis reveals that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation and a cusp catastrophe. The control parameters chosen for the analysis are the relative humidity and the particle concentration. An analytical estimate of the activation timescale is derived through estimation of the time spent in the saddle-node bifurcation bottleneck. Numerical integration of the system coupled with a simple air-parcel cloud model portrays two types of activation/deactivation hystereses: one associated with the kinetic limitations on droplet growth when the system is far from equilibrium, and one occurring close to equilibrium and associated with the cusp catastrophe. We discuss the presented analyses in context of the development of particle-based models of aerosol-cloud interactions in which activation and deactivation impose stringent time-resolution constraints on numerical integration.

Signatures of a macroscopic switching transition for a dynamic microtubule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aparna, J. S.; Padinhateeri, Ranjith; Das, Dibyendu

2017-04-01

Characterising complex kinetics of non-equilibrium self-assembly of bio-filaments is of general interest. Dynamic instability in microtubules, consisting of successive catastrophes and rescues, is observed to occur as a result of the non-equilibrium conversion of GTP-tubulin to GDP-tubulin. We study this phenomenon using a model for microtubule kinetics with GTP/GDP state-dependent polymerisation, depolymerisation and hydrolysis of subunits. Our results reveal a sharp switch-like transition in the mean velocity of the filaments, from a growth phase to a shrinkage phase, with an associated co-existence of the two phases. This transition is reminiscent of the discontinuous phase transition across the liquid-gas boundary. We probe the extent of discontinuity in the transition quantitatively using characteristic signatures such as bimodality in velocity distribution, variance and Binder cumulant, and also hysteresis behaviour of the system. We further investigate ageing behaviour in catastrophes of the filament, and find that the multi-step nature of catastrophes is intensified in the vicinity of the switching transition. This assumes importance in the context of Microtubule Associated Proteins which have the potential of altering kinetic parameter values.

Complexities, Catastrophes and Cities: Emergency Dynamics in Varying Scenarios and Urban Topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narzisi, Giuseppe; Mysore, Venkatesh; Byeon, Jeewoong; Mishra, Bud

Complex Systems are often characterized by agents capable of interacting with each other dynamically, often in non-linear and non-intuitive ways. Trying to characterize their dynamics often results in partial differential equations that are difficult, if not impossible, to solve. A large city or a city-state is an example of such an evolving and self-organizing complex environment that efficiently adapts to different and numerous incremental changes to its social, cultural and technological infrastructure [1]. One powerful technique for analyzing such complex systems is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) [9], which has seen an increasing number of applications in social science, economics and also biology. The agent-based paradigm facilitates easier transfer of domain specific knowledge into a model. ABM provides a natural way to describe systems in which the overall dynamics can be described as the result of the behavior of populations of autonomous components: agents, with a fixed set of rules based on local information and possible central control. As part of the NYU Center for Catastrophe Preparedness and Response (CCPR1), we have been exploring how ABM can serve as a powerful simulation technique for analyzing large-scale urban disasters. The central problem in Disaster Management is that it is not immediately apparent whether the current emergency plans are robust against such sudden, rare and punctuated catastrophic events.

Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks

PubMed Central

Kirkpatrick, James; Pascanu, Razvan; Rabinowitz, Neil; Veness, Joel; Desjardins, Guillaume; Rusu, Andrei A.; Milan, Kieran; Quan, John; Ramalho, Tiago; Grabska-Barwinska, Agnieszka; Hassabis, Demis; Clopath, Claudia; Kumaran, Dharshan; Hadsell, Raia

2017-01-01

The ability to learn tasks in a sequential fashion is crucial to the development of artificial intelligence. Until now neural networks have not been capable of this and it has been widely thought that catastrophic forgetting is an inevitable feature of connectionist models. We show that it is possible to overcome this limitation and train networks that can maintain expertise on tasks that they have not experienced for a long time. Our approach remembers old tasks by selectively slowing down learning on the weights important for those tasks. We demonstrate our approach is scalable and effective by solving a set of classification tasks based on a hand-written digit dataset and by learning several Atari 2600 games sequentially. PMID:28292907

Validation of the German fear of pain questionnaire in a sample of children with mixed chronic pain conditions.

PubMed

Flack, F; Gerlach, A L; Simons, L E; Zernikow, B; Hechler, T

2017-08-01

To date, no German instrument exists to measure pain-related fear in paediatric pain populations. The objective of the current study was to determine the construct validity of the translated German fear of pain questionnaire for children (GFOPQ-C) in a sample of children with mixed chronic pain disorders by testing the underlying factor structure, and its psychometric properties. N = 241 children with mixed chronic pain disorders (aged 8-19 years) presenting to a specialized pain clinic completed the GFOPQ-C and several other pain, fear and disability measures. The two-factor structure of the FOPQ-C (fear, avoidance) was replicated. Internal consistency for the shortened German version was good for both subscales (Fear subscale: α = 0.89; avoidance subscale: α = 0.76). As expected, the fear subscale correlated highly with anxiety sensitivity (r = 0.63), pain catastrophizing (r = 0.62) and general anxiety (r = 0.54), while the avoidance subscale was more closely related to disability (r = 0.24) and school functioning (r = 0.28). Pain-related fear differed in children with chronic pain depending on their pain location with higher fear ratings in children with abdominal pain and musculoskeletal pain. The GFOPQ-C is a valid instrument that assesses two distinct dimensions of pain-related fear in children: fear and avoidance. Future research is needed to evaluate the impact of increased pain-related fear on outcomes over time as well as to examine pain-related fear among healthy children. This will enhance our knowledge of who might be particularly vulnerable to potentially dysfunctional trajectories, such as ongoing pain or anxiety symptoms. The current study validates the first tool to assess pain-related fear in German-speaking children with chronic pain. Findings support two distinct domains: fear and activity avoidance. © 2017 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

A Tsunami Model for Chile for (Re) Insurance Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arango, Cristina; Rara, Vaclav; Puncochar, Petr; Trendafiloski, Goran; Ewing, Chris; Podlaha, Adam; Vatvani, Deepak; van Ormondt, Maarten; Chandler, Adrian

2014-05-01

Catastrophe models help (re)insurers to understand the financial implications of catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. In earthquake-prone regions such as Chile,(re)insurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify the risks facing their businesses, including models with the ability to estimate secondary losses. The 2010 (M8.8) Maule (Chile) earthquake highlighted the need for quantifying losses from secondary perils such as tsunamis, which can contribute to the overall event losses but are not often modelled. This paper presents some key modelling aspects of a new earthquake catastrophe model for Chile developed by Impact Forecasting in collaboration with Aon Benfield Research partners, focusing on the tsunami component. The model has the capability to model tsunami as a secondary peril - losses due to earthquake (ground-shaking) and induced tsunamis along the Chilean coast are quantified in a probabilistic manner, and also for historical scenarios. The model is implemented in the IF catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS. The probabilistic modelling of earthquake-induced tsunamis uses a stochastic event set that is consistent with the seismic (ground shaking) hazard developed for Chile, representing simulations of earthquake occurrence patterns for the region. Criteria for selecting tsunamigenic events (from the stochastic event set) are proposed which take into consideration earthquake location, depth and the resulting seabed vertical displacement and tsunami inundation depths at the coast. The source modelling software RuptGen by Babeyko (2007) was used to calculate static seabed vertical displacement resulting from earthquake slip. More than 3,600 events were selected for tsunami simulations. Deep and shallow water wave propagation is modelled using the Delft3D modelling suite, which is a state-of-the-art software developed by Deltares. The Delft3D-FLOW module is used in 2-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation settings with non-steady flow. Earthquake-induced static seabed vertical displacement is used as an input boundary condition to the model. The model is hierarchically set up with three nested domain levels; with 250 domains in total covering the entire Chilean coast. Spatial grid-cell resolution is equal to the native SRTM resolution of approximately 90m. In addition to the stochastic events, the 1960 (M9.5) Valdivia and 2010 (M8.8) Maule earthquakes are modelled. The modelled tsunami inundation map for the 2010 Maule event is validated through comparison with real observations. The vulnerability component consists of an extensive damage curves database, including curves for buildings, contents and business interruption for 21 occupancies, 24 structural types and two secondary modifies such as building height and period of construction. The building damage curves are developed by use of load-based method in which the building's capacity to resist tsunami loads is treated as equivalent to the design earthquake load capacity. The contents damage and business interruption curves are developed by use of deductive approach i.e. HAZUS flood vulnerability and business function restoration models are adapted for detailed occupancies and then assigned to the dominant structural types in Chile. The vulnerability component is validated through model overall back testing by use of observed aggregated earthquake and tsunami losses for client portfolios for 2010 Maule earthquake.

Catastrophic household expenditure for health care in a low-income society: a study from Nouna District, Burkina Faso.

PubMed Central

Su, Tin Tin; Kouyaté, Bocar; Flessa, Steffen

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the extent of catastrophic household health care expenditure and determine the factors responsible for it in Nouna District, Burkina Faso. METHODS: We used the Nouna Health District Household Survey to collect data on 800 households during 2000-01 for our analysis. The determinants of household catastrophic expenditure were identified by multivariate logistic regression method. FINDINGS: Even at very low levels of health care utilization and modest amount of health expenditure, 6-15% of total households in Nouna District incurred catastrophic health expenditure. The key determinants of catastrophic health expenditure were economic status, household health care utilization especially for modern medical care, illness episodes in an adult household member and presence of a member with chronic illness. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the poorest members of the community incurred catastrophic health expenses. Setting only one threshold/cut-off value to determine catastrophic health expenses may result in inaccurate estimation leading to misinterpretation of important factors. Our findings have important policy implications and can be used to ensure better access to health services and a higher degree of financial protection for low-income groups against the economic impact of illness. PMID:16501711

Slow, fast, and post-collapse displacements of the Mud Creek landslide in California from UAVSAR and satellite SAR analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, E. J.; Handwerger, A. L.; Burgmann, R.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

Landslides display a wide variety of behaviors ranging from slow steady or seasonal motion to runaway acceleration and catastrophic failure. In some cases, a single landslide moves slowly for a period of weeks to years before it rapidly accelerates into a catastrophic failure. Measurement of the spatio-temporal patterns of landslide motion in response to changes in environmental parameters such as rainfall, snowmelt, and nearby earthquakes will help us to constrain the mechanisms that control these landslide behaviors. Here, we use synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) from satellite and airborne platforms to measure the kinematics of several landslides along the coast of Central California, including the large Mud Creek landslide near Big Sur that catastrophically collapsed in May 2017 and led to the destruction of a major highway and millions of dollars in damages. We use InSAR and pixel offset data from NASA/JPL UAVSAR, JAXA ALOS1/2, and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B to quantify the displacement time series and 3D motion. Our data show that the Mud Creek landslide has been active for at least 2.5 years and displayed persistent motion (average rate of 10 cm/yr in LOS) with seasonal variations in velocity driven by rainfall-induced changes in pore pressure. We find that each year the landslide accelerated approximately 60-90 days after the onset of seasonal precipitation, which provides constraints on the hillslope hydrology. Before its ultimate collapse, the landslide displayed a large increase in velocity due to the above average rainfall during the 2017 water year. It appears a series of major storms in January and February 2017, some fed by atmospheric rivers, triggered a sufficient increase in pore-water pressure that led to the runaway failure. We model this behavior using a rate-and-state friction model developed to capture this range of landslide behaviors. This model will allow us to explore how different landslide properties (e.g., material properties, geometry, stress changes) can control the behavior of these types of landslides. We observe additional motion of the landslide deposits after the catastrophic collapse.

Destruction and Re-Accretion of Mid-Size Moons During an Outer Solar System Late Heavy Bombardment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Movshovitz, N.; Nimmo, F.; Korycansky, D. G.; Asphaug, E. I.; Owen, M.

2014-12-01

To explain the lunar Late Heavy Bombardment the Nice Model (Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., & Levison, H. 2005, Nature, 435, 459; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., & Levison, H. 2005, Nature, 435, 459) invokes a period of dynamical instability, occurring long after planet formation, that destabilizes both the main asteroid belt and a remnant exterior planetesimal disk. As a side effect of explaining the lunar LHB, this model also predicts an LHB-like period in the outer Solar System. With higher collision probabilities and impact energies due to gravitational focusing by the giant planets the inner satellites of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus would have experienced a bombardment much more severe than the one supposedly responsible for the lunar basins. The concern is that such bombardment should have resulted in significant, even catastrophic modification of the mid-size satellites. Here we look at the problem of satellite survival during a hypothetical outer Solar System LHB. Using a Monte-Carlo approach we calculate, for 10 satellites of Saturn and Uranus, the probability of having experienced at least one catastrophic collision during an LHB. We use a scaling law for the energy required to disrupt a target in a gravity-dominated collision derived from new SPH simulations. These simulations extend the scaling law previously obtained by Benz & Asphaug (1999, Icarus, 142, 5) to larger targets. We then simulate randomized LHB impacts by drawing from appropriate size and velocity distributions, with the total delivered mass as a controlled parameter. We find that Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Hyperion, and Miranda experience at least one catastrophic impact in every simulation. In most simulations, Mimas, Enceladus, and Tethys experience multiple catastrophic impacts, including impacts with energies several times that required to completely disrupt the target. The implication is that these close-in, mid-size satellites could not have survived a Late Heavy Bombardment unmodified, unless the mass delivered to the outer Solar System was at least 30 times less that the value predicted by the Nice Model, or 10 times less than the reduced value more recently suggested by Dones & Levison (2013, in 44th Lunar Planet. Sci. Conf.).

7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions. 402.4 Section 402.4 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CATASTROPHIC RISK PROTECTION ENDORSEMENT § 402.4...

Fuel dynamics by using Landscape Ecology Indices in the Alto Mijares, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, J.; Garcia, C. V.

2009-04-01

Land abandonment in Mediterranean regions has brought about a number of management problems, being an increased wildfire activity prevalent among them. Agricultural neglect in highlands resulted in reduced anthropogenic disturbances and greater landscape homogeneity in areas such as the Alto Mijares in Spain. It is widely accepted that processes like forest fires, influence structure of the landscape and vice versa. Fire-prone Mediterranean flora is well adapted to this disturbance, exhibiting excellent succession capabilities; but higher fuel loads and homogeneous conditions may ally to promote vegetation recession when the fire regime is altered by land abandonment. Both succession and recession make changes to the landscape structure and configuration. However, these changes are difficult to quantify and characterize. If landscape restoration of these forests is a management objective, then developing a quantitative knowledge base for landscape fuel dynamics is a prerequisite. Four classified LandsatTM satellite images were compared to quantify changes in landscape structure between 1984 and 1998. An attempt is made to define landscape level dynamics for fuel development after reduced disturbance and fuel accumulation that leads to catastrophic fires by using landscape ecology indices. By doing so, indices that best describe the fuel dynamics are pointed. The results indicate that low-level disturbance increases heterogeneity, thus lowers fire hazard. No disturbance or severe disturbance increases homogeneity because of vegetation succession and may lead to devastating fires. These fires could be avoided by human induced disturbance like controlled burning, harvesting, mechanical works for fuel reduction and other silviculture measures; thus bringing in more heterogeneity in the region. The Alto Mijares landscape appears to be in an unstable equilibrium where succession and recession are at tug of war. The effects are evident in the general absence of the climax species of Quercus ilex. It have also been recognised that just one index is rarely sufficient to describe the complex dynamics in any landscape; it is usually a group of indices that needs to be consulted in order to perceive the wider picture. The study indicates that there is a need for landscape and social restoration in areas like Alto Mijares to make best use of available resources and avoid catastrophic fires.

Biopsychosocial influence on shoulder pain: risk subgroups translated across preclinical and clinical prospective cohorts

PubMed Central

George, Steven Z.; Wallace, Margaret R.; Wu, Samuel S.; Moser, Michael W.; Wright, Thomas W.; Farmer, Kevin W.; Borsa, Paul A.; Parr, Jeffrey J.; Greenfield, Warren H.; Dai, Yunfeng; Li, Hua; Fillingim, Roger B.

2016-01-01

Tailored treatment based on individual risk factors is an area with promise to improve options for pain relief. Musculoskeletal pain has a biopsychosocial nature, and multiple factors should be considered when determining risk for chronic pain. This study investigated whether subgroups comprised genetic and psychological factors predicted outcomes in preclinical and clinical models of shoulder pain. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed for an exercise-induced shoulder injury cohort (n = 190) to identify high-risk subgroups, and a surgical pain cohort (n = 150) was used for risk validation. Questionnaires for fear of pain and pain catastrophizing were administered before injury and preoperatively. DNA collected from saliva was genotyped for a priori selected genes involved with pain modulation (COMT and AVPR1A) and inflammation (IL1B and TNF/LTA). Recovery was operationalized as a brief pain inventory rating of 0/10 for current pain intensity and <2/10 for worst pain intensity. Follow-up for the preclinical cohort was in daily increments, whereas follow-up for the clinical cohort was at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Risk subgroups comprised the COMT high pain sensitivity variant and either pain catastrophizing or fear of pain were predictive of heightened shoulder pain responses in the preclinical model. Further analysis in the clinical model identified the COMT high pain sensitivity variant and pain catastrophizing subgroup as the better predictor. Future studies will determine whether these findings can be replicated in other anatomical regions and whether personalized medicine strategies can be developed for this risk subgroup. PMID:25599310

In vitro and in vivo radiosensitization induced by hydroxyapatite nanoparticles

PubMed Central

Chu, Sheng-Hua; Karri, Surya; Ma, Yan-Bin; Feng, Dong-Fu; Li, Zhi-Qiang

2013-01-01

Background Previous study showed that hydroxyapatite nanoparticles (nano-HAPs) inhibited glioma growth in vitro and in vivo; and in a drug combination, they could reduce adverse reactions. We investigated the possible enhancement of radiosensitivity induced by nano-HAPs. Methods In vitro radiosensitization of nano-HAPs was measured using a clonogenic survival assay in human glioblastoma U251 and breast tumor brain metastatic tumor MDA-MB-231BR cells. DNA damage and repair were measured using γH2AX foci, and mitotic catastrophe was determined by immunostaining. The effect of nano-HAPs on in vivo tumor radiosensitivity was investigated in a subcutaneous and an orthotopic model. Results Nano-HAPs enhanced each cell line's radiosensitivity when the exposure was 1 h before irradiation, and they had no significant effect on irradiation-induced apoptosis or on the activation of the G2 cell cycle checkpoint. The number of γH2AX foci per cell was significantly large at 24 h after the combination modality of nano-HAPs + irradiation compared with single treatments. Mitotic catastrophe was also significantly increased at an interval of 72 h in tumor cells receiving the combined modality compared with the individual treatments. In a subcutaneous model, nano-HAPs caused a larger than additive increase in tumor growth delay. In an orthotopic model, nano-HAPs significantly reduced tumor growth and extended the prolongation of survival induced by irradiation. Conclusions These results show that nano-HAPs can enhance the radiosensitivity of tumor cells in vitro and in vivo through the inhibition of DNA repair, resulting in an increase in mitotic catastrophe. PMID:23519742

In vitro and in vivo radiosensitization induced by hydroxyapatite nanoparticles.

PubMed

Chu, Sheng-Hua; Karri, Surya; Ma, Yan-Bin; Feng, Dong-Fu; Li, Zhi-Qiang

2013-07-01

Previous study showed that hydroxyapatite nanoparticles (nano-HAPs) inhibited glioma growth in vitro and in vivo; and in a drug combination, they could reduce adverse reactions. We investigated the possible enhancement of radiosensitivity induced by nano-HAPs. In vitro radiosensitization of nano-HAPs was measured using a clonogenic survival assay in human glioblastoma U251 and breast tumor brain metastatic tumor MDA-MB-231BR cells. DNA damage and repair were measured using γH2AX foci, and mitotic catastrophe was determined by immunostaining. The effect of nano-HAPs on in vivo tumor radiosensitivity was investigated in a subcutaneous and an orthotopic model. Nano-HAPs enhanced each cell line's radiosensitivity when the exposure was 1 h before irradiation, and they had no significant effect on irradiation-induced apoptosis or on the activation of the G2 cell cycle checkpoint. The number of γH2AX foci per cell was significantly large at 24 h after the combination modality of nano-HAPs + irradiation compared with single treatments. Mitotic catastrophe was also significantly increased at an interval of 72 h in tumor cells receiving the combined modality compared with the individual treatments. In a subcutaneous model, nano-HAPs caused a larger than additive increase in tumor growth delay. In an orthotopic model, nano-HAPs significantly reduced tumor growth and extended the prolongation of survival induced by irradiation. These results show that nano-HAPs can enhance the radiosensitivity of tumor cells in vitro and in vivo through the inhibition of DNA repair, resulting in an increase in mitotic catastrophe.

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-01-01

Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

The reasons for the application of chaos theory to the analysis of catastrophes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valery, Kudin

2014-05-01

The study of catastrophes is necessary for understanding the nature of the interaction between the individual and the universal in the process of the development of complex systems. Chaos theory, allowing describing adaptation and bifurcation mechanisms for the development of systems, defines the catastrophes as a transition of the system into a different state (change of structure). The previous state of the system is destroyed because of fluctuations, which do not play a role in the development of the system until it reaches the instability region that is inherent to any system. The catastrophe is considered in this theory as a stage in the evolution of the system, and thus emphasizes the importance of catastrophes for the development of any system. We rarely manage events comprehensively, as events are always subject to changes like gas molecules changing the trajectory of motion each moment under the influence of countless blows. The concept of catastrophes is much broader and is generally applicable to any final result of collision of opposing aspirations. Philosophical definition of catastrophes comes down to the destruction of the unity, accompanied by violent collision between different parts, the growing disruption, failure to prevent crossing the dangerous threshold... As a final vertex of action, disaster is not, however, directly its end: the action may continue after the catastrophe, but in the direction that is determined by the character of opposing aspirations. Major catastrophes, which have already destroyed and continue to ravage the world today, come from a superficial use of the laws of the development of complex systems and, in particular, of individual techniques of the chaos theory.

Social modulation of facial pain display in high-catastrophizing children: an observational study in schoolchildren and their parents.

PubMed

Vervoort, Tine; Caes, Line; Trost, Zina; Sullivan, Michael; Vangronsveld, Karoline; Goubert, Liesbet

2011-07-01

The present study examined existing communal and operant accounts of children's pain behavior by looking at the impact of parental presence and parental attention upon children's pain expression as a function of child pain catastrophizing. Participants were 38 school children and 1 of their parents. Children completed a cold pressor pain task (CPT) twice, first when told that no one was observing (alone condition) and subsequently when told that they were being observed by their parent (parent-present condition). A 3-minute parent-child interaction occurred between the 2 CPT immersions, allowing measurement of parental attention to their child's pain (ie, parental pain-attending talk vs non-pain-attending talk). Findings showed that child pain catastrophizing moderated the impact of parental presence upon facial displays of pain. Specifically, low-catastrophizing children expressed more pain in the presence of their parent, whereas high-catastrophizing children showed equally pronounced pain expression when alone or in the presence of a parent. Furthermore, children's catastrophizing moderated the impact of parental attention upon facial displays and self-reports of pain; higher levels of parental nonpain talk were associated with increased facial expression and self-reports of pain among high-catastrophizing children; for low-catastrophizing children, facial and self-report of pain was independent of parental attention to pain. The findings are discussed in terms of possible mechanisms that may drive and maintain pain expression in high-catastrophizing children, as well as potential limitations of traditional theories in explaining pediatric pain expression. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dinaciclib Induces Anaphase Catastrophe in Lung Cancer Cells via Inhibition of Cyclin-Dependent Kinases 1 and 2.

PubMed

Danilov, Alexey V; Hu, Shanhu; Orr, Bernardo; Godek, Kristina; Mustachio, Lisa Maria; Sekula, David; Liu, Xi; Kawakami, Masanori; Johnson, Faye M; Compton, Duane A; Freemantle, Sarah J; Dmitrovsky, Ethan

2016-11-01

Despite advances in targeted therapy, lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States. Chromosomal instability is a prominent feature in lung cancer and, because it rarely occurs in normal cells, it represents a potential therapeutic target. Our prior work discovered that lung cancer cells undergo anaphase catastrophe in response to inhibition of cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2), followed by apoptosis and reduced growth. In this study, the effects and mechanisms of the multi-CDK inhibitor dinaciclib on lung cancer cells were investigated. We sought to determine the specificity of CDK-dependent induction of anaphase catastrophe. Live cell imaging provided direct evidence that dinaciclib caused multipolar cell divisions resulting in extensive chromosome missegregation. Genetic knockdown of dinaciclib CDK targets revealed that repression of CDK2 and CDK1, but not CDK5 or CDK9, triggered anaphase catastrophe in lung cancer cells. Overexpression of CP110, which is a mediator of CDK2 inhibitor-induced anaphase catastrophe (and a CDK1 and 2 phosphorylation substrate), antagonized anaphase catastrophe and apoptosis following dinaciclib treatment. Consistent with our previous findings, acquisition of activated KRAS sensitized lung cancer cells to dinaciclib-mediated anaphase catastrophe and cell death. Combining dinaciclib with the mitotic inhibitor taxol augmented anaphase catastrophe induction and reduced cell viability of lung cancer cells. Thus, the multi-CDK inhibitor dinaciclib causes anaphase catastrophe in lung cancer cells and should be investigated as a potential therapeutic for wild-type and KRAS-mutant lung cancer, individually or in combination with taxanes. Mol Cancer Ther; 15(11); 2758-66. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Rituximab use in the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of the CAPS registry patients receiving rituximab.

PubMed

Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Morel, Nathalie; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Erkan, Doruk; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Espinosa, Gerard

2013-09-01

The catastrophic variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs developing over a short period of time. First-line treatment for the catastrophic APS is the combination of anticoagulation plus corticosteroids plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulin. Despite this regimen, the mortality remains high and new treatment options are needed. By a systematic review of the Catastrophic APS Registry (CAPS Registry), we identified 20 patients treated with rituximab. The purpose of this study is to describe the clinical manifestations, laboratory features, and outcomes of rituximab-treated CAPS patients. In addition, the rationale for using rituximab in catastrophic APS is discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Household Expenditure for Dental Care in Low and Middle Income Countries

PubMed Central

Masood, Mohd; Sheiham, Aubrey; Bernabé, Eduardo

2015-01-01

This study assessed the extent of household catastrophic expenditure in dental health care and its possible determinants in 41 low and middle income countries. Data from 182,007 respondents aged 18 years and over (69,315 in 18 low income countries, 59,645 in 15 lower middle income countries and 53,047 in 8 upper middle income countries) who participated in the WHO World Health Survey (WHS) were analyzed. Expenditure in dental health care was defined as catastrophic if it was equal to or higher than 40% of the household capacity to pay. A number of individual and country-level factors were assessed as potential determinants of catastrophic dental health expenditure (CDHE) in multilevel logistic regression with individuals nested within countries. Up to 7% of households in low and middle income countries faced CDHE in the last 4 weeks. This proportion rose up to 35% among households that incurred some dental health expenditure within the same period. The multilevel model showed that wealthier, urban and larger households and more economically developed countries had higher odds of facing CDHE. The results of this study show that payments for dental health care can be a considerable burden on households, to the extent of preventing expenditure on basic necessities. They also help characterize households more likely to incur catastrophic expenditure on dental health care. Alternative health care financing strategies and policies targeted to improve fairness in financial contribution are urgently required in low and middle income countries. PMID:25923691

23 CFR 668.203 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... facilities not existing prior to the natural disaster or catastrophic failure such as additional lanes... immediately after a natural disaster or catastrophic failure (1) to restore essential travel, (2) to protect... disaster over a wide area, or (2) a catastrophic failure. (g) Natural disaster. An unusual natural...

23 CFR 668.203 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... facilities not existing prior to the natural disaster or catastrophic failure such as additional lanes... immediately after a natural disaster or catastrophic failure (1) to restore essential travel, (2) to protect... disaster over a wide area, or (2) a catastrophic failure. (g) Natural disaster. An unusual natural...

23 CFR 668.203 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... facilities not existing prior to the natural disaster or catastrophic failure such as additional lanes... immediately after a natural disaster or catastrophic failure (1) to restore essential travel, (2) to protect... disaster over a wide area, or (2) a catastrophic failure. (g) Natural disaster. An unusual natural...

23 CFR 668.203 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... facilities not existing prior to the natural disaster or catastrophic failure such as additional lanes... immediately after a natural disaster or catastrophic failure (1) to restore essential travel, (2) to protect... disaster over a wide area, or (2) a catastrophic failure. (g) Natural disaster. An unusual natural...

Risk-adjusted capitation payments for catastrophic risks based on multi-year prior costs.

PubMed

van Barneveld, E M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

1997-02-01

In many countries regulated competition among health insurance companies has recently been proposed or implemented. A crucial issue is whether or not the benefits package offered by competing insurers should also cover catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care) in addition to non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care and physician services). In 1988 the Dutch government proposed compulsory national health insurance based on regulated competition among insurer as well as among providers of care. The competing insurers should offer a benefits package covering both non-catastrophic risks and catastrophic risks. The insurers would be largely financed via risk-adjusted capitation payments. The government intended to use a capitation formula that is, besides some demographic variables, based on multi-year prior costs. This paper presents the results of an explorative empirical analysis of the possible consequences of such a capitation formula for catastrophic risks. The main conclusion is that this formula would be inadequate because it would leave ample room for cream skimming.

Remote Sensing of Urban Microclimate Change in L’Aquila City (Italy) after Post-Earthquake Depopulation in an Open Source GIS Environment

PubMed Central

Baiocchi, Valerio; Zottele, Fabio; Dominici, Donatella

2017-01-01

This work reports a first attempt to use Landsat satellite imagery to identify possible urban microclimate changes in a city center after a seismic event that affected L’Aquila City (Abruzzo Region, Italy), on 6 April 2009. After the main seismic event, the collapse of part of the buildings, and the damaging of most of them, with the consequence of an almost total depopulation of the historic city center, may have caused alterations to the microclimate. This work develops an inexpensive work flow—using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) scenes—to construct the evolution of urban land use after the catastrophic main seismic event that hit L’Aquila. We hypothesized, that, possibly, before the event, the temperature was higher in the city center due to the presence of inhabitants (and thus home heating); while the opposite case occurred in the surrounding areas, where new settlements of inhabitants grew over a period of a few months. We decided not to look to independent meteorological data in order to avoid being biased in their investigations; thus, only the smallest dataset of Landsat ETM+ scenes were considered as input data in order to describe the thermal evolution of the land surface after the earthquake. We managed to use the Landsat archive images to provide thermal change indications, useful for understanding the urban changes induced by catastrophic events, setting up an easy to implement, robust, reproducible, and fast procedure. PMID:28218724

Remote Sensing of Urban Microclimate Change in L'Aquila City (Italy) after Post-Earthquake Depopulation in an Open Source GIS Environment.

PubMed

Baiocchi, Valerio; Zottele, Fabio; Dominici, Donatella

2017-02-19

This work reports a first attempt to use Landsat satellite imagery to identify possible urban microclimate changes in a city center after a seismic event that affected L'Aquila City (Abruzzo Region, Italy), on 6 April 2009. After the main seismic event, the collapse of part of the buildings, and the damaging of most of them, with the consequence of an almost total depopulation of the historic city center, may have caused alterations to the microclimate. This work develops an inexpensive work flow-using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) scenes-to construct the evolution of urban land use after the catastrophic main seismic event that hit L'Aquila. We hypothesized, that, possibly, before the event, the temperature was higher in the city center due to the presence of inhabitants (and thus home heating); while the opposite case occurred in the surrounding areas, where new settlements of inhabitants grew over a period of a few months. We decided not to look to independent meteorological data in order to avoid being biased in their investigations; thus, only the smallest dataset of Landsat ETM+ scenes were considered as input data in order to describe the thermal evolution of the land surface after the earthquake. We managed to use the Landsat archive images to provide thermal change indications, useful for understanding the urban changes induced by catastrophic events, setting up an easy to implement, robust, reproducible, and fast procedure.

Black Hole Accretion and Feedback Driven by Thermal Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspari, M.; Ruszkowski, M.; Oh, S. P.; Churazov, E.; Brighenti, F.; Ettori, S.; Sharma, P.; Temi, P.

2013-03-01

Multiwavelength data indicate that the cores of several galaxy clusters are moderately cooling, though not catastrophically, showing signs of filamentary extended multiphase gas. Through 3D AMR hydrodynamic simulations, we study the impact of thermal instability in the evolution of the intracluster medium. Common moderate turbulence of just over 100 km/s leads to the growth of nonlinear thermal instability within the central few tens kpc. In the presence of a global counterbalancing heating, the condensation of extended filamentary cold gas is violent, occurring when the cooling time falls below 10 times the free-fall time. The frequent stochastic collisions, fragmentations and shearing motions between the cold clouds, filaments and the central torus, efficiently reduce angular momentum. Tracking the accreting gas with a dynamical range of 10 million, we find that the accretion rate is boosted up to 100 times with respect to the Bondi rate. In a commonly turbulent and quasi-stable atmosphere, the mode of black accretion is cold and chaotic, substantially different from the classic idealized scenario. Only in the transonic regime, turbulent dissipation starts to inhibit thermal instability. On sub-parsec scales the cold phase is channeled via a funnel, triggering the black hole feedback likely linked to mechanical jets/outflows. As shown by long-term self-regulated simulations, the interplay of chaotic cold accretion and AGN feedback is crucial in order to avoid the cooling catastrophe and to reproduce the key thermodynamical features of observed clusters.

A peripheral governor regulates muscle contraction.

PubMed

MacIntosh, Brian R; Shahi, M Reza S

2011-02-01

Active skeletal muscles are capable of keeping the global [adenosine triphosphate (ATP)] reasonably constant during exercise, whether it is mild exercise, activating a few motor units, or all-out exercise using a substantial mass of muscle. This could only be accomplished if there were regulatory processes in place not only to replenish ATP as quickly as possible, but also to modulate the rate of ATP use when that rate threatens to exceed the rate of ATP replenishment, a situation that could lead to metabolic catastrophe. This paper proposes that there is a regulatory process or "peripheral governor" that can modulate activation of muscle to avoid metabolic catastrophe. A peripheral governor, working at the cellular level, should be able to reduce the cellular rate of ATP hydrolysis associated with muscle contraction by attenuating activation. This would necessarily cause something we call peripheral fatigue (i.e., reduced contractile response to a given stimulation). There is no doubt that peripheral fatigue occurs. It has been demonstrated in isolated muscles, in muscles in situ with no central nervous system input, and in intact human subjects performing voluntary exercise with small muscle groups or doing whole-body exercise. The regulation of muscle activation is achieved in at least 3 ways (decreasing membrane excitability, inhibiting Ca2+ release through ryanodine receptors, and decreasing the availability of Ca2+ in the sarcoplasmic reticulum), making this a highly redundant control system. The peripheral governor attenuates cellular activation to reduce the metabolic demand, thereby preserving ATP and the integrity of the cell.

Biopsychosocial influence on exercise-induced injury: genetic and psychological combinations are predictive of shoulder pain phenotypes.

PubMed

George, Steven Z; Parr, Jeffrey J; Wallace, Margaret R; Wu, Samuel S; Borsa, Paul A; Dai, Yunfeng; Fillingim, Roger B

2014-01-01

Chronic pain is influenced by biological, psychological, social, and cultural factors. The current study investigated potential roles for combinations of genetic and psychological factors in the development and/or maintenance of chronic musculoskeletal pain. An exercise-induced shoulder injury model was used, and a priori selected genetic (ADRB2, COMT, OPRM1, AVPR1 A, GCH1, and KCNS1) and psychological (anxiety, depressive symptoms, pain catastrophizing, fear of pain, and kinesiophobia) factors were included as predictors. Pain phenotypes were shoulder pain intensity (5-day average and peak reported on numerical rating scale), upper extremity disability (5-day average and peak reported on the QuickDASH), and shoulder pain duration (in days). After controlling for age, sex, and race, the genetic and psychological predictors were entered as main effects and interaction terms in separate regression models for the different pain phenotypes. Results from the recruited cohort (N = 190) indicated strong statistical evidence for interactions between the COMT diplotype and 1) pain catastrophizing for 5-day average upper extremity disability and 2) depressive symptoms for pain duration. There was moderate statistical evidence for interactions for other shoulder pain phenotypes between additional genes (ADRB2, AVPR1 A, and KCNS1) and depressive symptoms, pain catastrophizing, or kinesiophobia. These findings confirm the importance of the combined predictive ability of COMT with psychological distress and reveal other novel combinations of genetic and psychological factors that may merit additional investigation in other pain cohorts. Interactions between genetic and psychological factors were investigated as predictors of different exercise-induced shoulder pain phenotypes. The strongest statistical evidence was for interactions between the COMT diplotype and pain catastrophizing (for upper extremity disability) or depressive symptoms (for pain duration). Other novel genetic and psychological combinations were identified that may merit further investigation. Copyright © 2014 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

2015-04-01

Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as ease and speed of analysis and the advantages this can offer in terms of monitoring changing exposures over time. Significantly, in many areas of the world, this increase in exposure is likely to have more of an impact on increasing catastrophe losses than potential anthropogenically driven changes in weather extremes.

Class and Home Problems. Modeling an Explosion: The Devil Is in the Details

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Peter W.; Rudie, Alan W.

2011-01-01

Within the past 15 years, three North American pulp mills experienced catastrophic equipment failures while using 50 wt% hydrogen peroxide. In two cases, explosions occurred when normal pulp flow was interrupted due to other process problems. To understand the accidents, a kinetic model of alkali-catalyzed decomposition of peroxide was developed.…

23 CFR 668.107 - Federal share payable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... natural disaster or catastrophic failure may amount to 100 percent of the costs thereof. (b) Total... those on Federal roads under 23 CFR part 668, subpart B), resulting from a single natural disaster or a single catastrophic failure, shall not exceed $100 million per disaster or catastrophic failure. The...

23 CFR 668.107 - Federal share payable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... natural disaster or catastrophic failure may amount to 100 percent of the costs thereof. (b) Total... those on Federal roads under 23 CFR part 668, subpart B), resulting from a single natural disaster or a single catastrophic failure, shall not exceed $100 million per disaster or catastrophic failure. The...

23 CFR 668.107 - Federal share payable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... natural disaster or catastrophic failure may amount to 100 percent of the costs thereof. (b) Total... those on Federal roads under 23 CFR part 668, subpart B), resulting from a single natural disaster or a single catastrophic failure, shall not exceed $100 million per disaster or catastrophic failure. The...

23 CFR 668.107 - Federal share payable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... natural disaster or catastrophic failure may amount to 100 percent of the costs thereof. (b) Total... those on Federal roads under 23 CFR part 668, subpart B), resulting from a single natural disaster or a single catastrophic failure, shall not exceed $100 million per disaster or catastrophic failure. The...

23 CFR 668.107 - Federal share payable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... natural disaster or catastrophic failure may amount to 100 percent of the costs thereof. (b) Total... those on Federal roads under 23 CFR part 668, subpart B), resulting from a single natural disaster or a single catastrophic failure, shall not exceed $100 million per disaster or catastrophic failure. The...

Chronic Pain Under Missile Attacks: Role of Pain Catastrophizing, Media, and Stress-Related Exposure.

PubMed

Noyman-Veksler, Gal; Shalev, Hadar; Brill, Silviu; Rudich, Zvia; Shahar, Golan

2017-10-09

We examined the effects of exposure to missile attacks on patients' pain and depressive symptoms, moderated by pain-related catastrophizing. One-hundred Israeli chronic pain patients were assessed both prior and subsequent to military operation "Protective Edge," during which thousands of missiles landed on populated areas across the country. Baseline assessment included pain, depression, and catastrophizing, and postwar assessment tapped exposure to missiles, pain, and depression. Media exposure predicted an increase in sensory pain under high levels of catastrophizing (1 SD above the mean; unstandardized simple slope = 0.57, p = .01), and depression in the entire sample (b = 0.61, p = .01). Perceived stress related to the missiles exhibited an expected effect, predicting an increase in depressive symptoms (b = 1.45, p = .03). Unexpectedly, perceived stress predicted a decrease in sensory pain under high levels of catastrophizing (unstandardized simple slope = -0.49, p = .02). Media exposure to acute stress may render chronic pain patients more vulnerable to experiencing pain and depressive symptoms, depending on their use of pain-based catastrophizing. High catastrophizers may attend more to outside threats, amplifying the sensory and affective aspects of pain they experience. Perceived stress also plays a significant role in eliciting depressive symptoms in this population. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

PubMed

Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

2016-12-01

Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association of greater dispositional optimism with less endogenous pain facilitation is indirectly transmitted through lower levels of pain catastrophizing

PubMed Central

Goodin, Burel R.; Glover, Toni L.; Sotolongo, Adriana; King, Christopher D.; Sibille, Kimberly T.; Herbert, Matthew S.; Cruz-Almeida, Yenisel; Sanden, Shelley H.; Staud, Roland; Redden, David T.; Bradley, Laurence A.; Fillingim, Roger B.

2012-01-01

Dispositional optimism has been shown to beneficially influence various experimental and clinical pain experiences. One possibility that may account for decreased pain sensitivity among individuals who report greater dispositional optimism is less use of maladaptive coping strategies like pain catastrophizing, a negative cognitive/affective response to pain. An association between dispositional optimism and conditioned pain modulation (CPM), a measure of endogenous pain inhibition, has previously been reported. However, it remains to be determined whether dispositional optimism is also associated with temporal summation (TS), a measure of endogenous pain facilitation. The current study examined whether pain catastrophizing mediated the association between dispositional optimism and TS among 140 older, community-dwelling adults with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. Individuals completed measures of dispositional optimism and pain catastrophizing. TS was then assessed using a tailored heat pain stimulus on the forearm. Greater dispositional optimism was significantly related to lower levels of pain catastrophizing and TS. Bootstrapped confidence intervals revealed that less pain catastrophizing was a significant mediator of the relation between greater dispositional optimism and diminished TS. These findings support the primary role of personality characteristics such as dispositional optimism in the modulation of pain outcomes by abatement of endogenous pain facilitation and less use of catastrophizing. PMID:23218934

Correlates of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures in Tanzania: results from a national household survey.

PubMed

Brinda, Ethel Mary; Andrés, Antonio Rodríguez; Andrés, Rodriguez Antonio; Enemark, Ulrika

2014-03-05

Inequality in health services access and utilization are influenced by out-of-pocket health expenditures in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Various antecedents such as social factors, poor health and economic factors are proposed to direct the choice of health care service use and incurring out-of-pocket payments. We investigated the association of these factors with out-of-pocket health expenditures among the adult and older population in the United Republic of Tanzania. We also investigated the prevalence and associated determinants contributing to household catastrophic health expenditures. We accessed the data of a multistage stratified random sample of 7279 adult participants, aged between 18 and 59 years, as well as 1018 participants aged above 60 years, from the first round of the Tanzania National Panel survey. We employed multiple generalized linear and logistic regression models to evaluate the correlates of out-of-pocket as well as catastrophic health expenditures, accounting for the complex sample design effects. Increasing age, female gender, obesity and functional disability increased the adults' out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly, while functional disability and visits to traditional healers increased the out-of-pocket health expenditures in older participants. Adult participants, who lacked formal education or worked as manual laborers earned significantly less (p < 0.001) and spent less on health (p < 0.001), despite having higher levels of disability. Large household size, household head's occupation as a manual laborer, household member with chronic illness, domestic violence against women and traditional healer's visits were significantly associated with high catastrophic health expenditures. We observed that the prevalence of inequalities in socioeconomic factors played a significant role in determining the nature of both out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures. We propose that investment in social welfare programs and strengthening the social security mechanisms could reduce the financial burden in United Republic of Tanzania.

Correlates of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures in Tanzania: results from a national household survey

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Inequality in health services access and utilization are influenced by out-of-pocket health expenditures in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Various antecedents such as social factors, poor health and economic factors are proposed to direct the choice of health care service use and incurring out-of-pocket payments. We investigated the association of these factors with out-of-pocket health expenditures among the adult and older population in the United Republic of Tanzania. We also investigated the prevalence and associated determinants contributing to household catastrophic health expenditures. Methods We accessed the data of a multistage stratified random sample of 7279 adult participants, aged between 18 and 59 years, as well as 1018 participants aged above 60 years, from the first round of the Tanzania National Panel survey. We employed multiple generalized linear and logistic regression models to evaluate the correlates of out-of-pocket as well as catastrophic health expenditures, accounting for the complex sample design effects. Results Increasing age, female gender, obesity and functional disability increased the adults’ out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly, while functional disability and visits to traditional healers increased the out-of-pocket health expenditures in older participants. Adult participants, who lacked formal education or worked as manual laborers earned significantly less (p < 0.001) and spent less on health (p < 0.001), despite having higher levels of disability. Large household size, household head’s occupation as a manual laborer, household member with chronic illness, domestic violence against women and traditional healer’s visits were significantly associated with high catastrophic health expenditures. Conclusion We observed that the prevalence of inequalities in socioeconomic factors played a significant role in determining the nature of both out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures. We propose that investment in social welfare programs and strengthening the social security mechanisms could reduce the financial burden in United Republic of Tanzania. PMID:24597486

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard S J; Marzeion, Ben; Fettweis, Xavier; Ionescu, Cezar; Levermann, Anders

2014-03-04

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.

Experimental investigation on frequency shifting of imperfect adhesively bonded pipe joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiyam, F. N.; Hilmy, I.; Sulaeman, E.; Firdaus, T.; Adesta, E. Y. T.

2018-01-01

Inspection tests for any manufactured structure are compulsory in order to detect the existence of damage.It is to ensure the product integrity, reliability and to avoid further catastrophic failure. In this research, modal analysis was utilized to detect structural damage as one of the Non Destructive Testing (NDT) methods. Comparing the vibration signal of a healthy structure with a non-healthy signal was performed. A modal analysis of an adhesively bonded pipe joint was investigated with a healthy joint as a reference. The damage joint was engineered by inserting a nylon fiber, which act as an impurity at adhesive region. The impact test using hammer was utilized in this research. Identification of shifting frequency of a free supported and clamped pipe joint was performed.It was found that shifting frequency occurred to the lower side by 5%.

KSC-06pd1341

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-27

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - These laptop computers in Firing Room 4 of the Launch Control Center reveal data being relayed from the avian radars recently set up on Launch Pad 39B. On the left is an associated camera image. On the right is the radar image. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1339

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-27

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - This radar image shows the presence of large birds around Launch Pad 39B. The data is being relayed from the avian radars recently set up on the pad. The computer is one of two set up in Firing Room 4 of the Launch Control Center. When birds, especially vultures, are near the shuttle during a launch, impact on a critical area is possible and could cause catastrophic damage to the vehicle. Already proven affective for aviation where threats posed by bird strikes have been a problem, the avian radar, known as Aircraft Birdstrike Avoidance Radar, provides horizontal and vertical scanning and can monitor either launch pad for movement of vultures around them. If data relayed from the avian radar indicates large birds are dangerously close to the vehicle, controllers could hold the countdown. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Inagawa, Shoichi, E-mail: sinagawa@med.niigata-u.ac.j; Unno, Naoki; Yamashita, Shuhei

A 28-year-old woman was referred to our institution with hope for another child after having an abortion several months previously to avoid a potential risk of catastrophic hemorrhage from a retroperitoneal arteriovenous fistula (AVF) with enlarged and twisted draining veins in the pelvis. Multiple branches coming from the right lumbar arteries and the right iliac arteries fed fistulae converging on an enlarged venous pouch anterior to the psoas major muscle in the right retroperitoneal space. It seemed impossible to achieve complete occlusion of the lesion in a single session by either transarterial or transvenous approach. A laparotomy and direct puncturemore » of the enlarged draining vein immediately downstream of the venous pouch was performed and embolization was done with n-butyl cyanoacrylate and the aid of coils. Complete occlusion of the retroperitoneal AVF was achieved and confirmed in control angiography 5 months later.« less

Ballistic Puncture Self-Healing Polymeric Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Keith L.; Siochi, Emilie J.; Yost, William T.; Bogert, Phil B.; Howell, Patricia A.; Cramer, K. Elliott; Burke, Eric R.

2017-01-01

Space exploration launch costs on the order of $10,000 per pound provide an incentive to seek ways to reduce structural mass while maintaining structural function to assure safety and reliability. Damage-tolerant structural systems provide a route to avoiding weight penalty while enhancing vehicle safety and reliability. Self-healing polymers capable of spontaneous puncture repair show promise to mitigate potentially catastrophic damage from events such as micrometeoroid penetration. Effective self-repair requires these materials to quickly heal following projectile penetration while retaining some structural function during the healing processes. Although there are materials known to possess this capability, they are typically not considered for structural applications. Current efforts use inexpensive experimental methods to inflict damage, after which analytical procedures are identified to verify that function is restored. Two candidate self-healing polymer materials for structural engineering systems are used to test these experimental methods.

Ulysses Observations of the Magnetic Connectivity between CMEs and the Sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Pete; Gosling, J. T.; Crooker, N. U.

2004-01-01

We have investigated the magnetic connectivity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the Sun using Ulysses observations of suprathermal electrons at various distances between 1 AU and 5.2 AU. Drawing on ideas concerning the eruption and evolution of CMEs, we had anticipated that there might be a tendency for CMEs to contain progressively more open field lines, as reconnection back at the Sun either opened or completely disconnected previously closed field lines threading the CMEs. Our results, however, did not yield any discernible trend. By combining the potential contribution of CMEs to the heliospheric flux with the observed build-up of flux during the course of the solar cycle we also derive a lower limit for the reconnection rate of CMEs that is sufficient to avoid the "flux catastrophe" paradox. This rate is well below our threshold of detectability.

Selective predation and productivity jointly drive complex behavior in host-parasite systems.

PubMed

Hall, Spencer R; Duffy, Meghan A; Cáceres, Carla E

2005-01-01

Successful invasion of a parasite into a host population and resulting host-parasite dynamics can depend crucially on other members of a host's community such as predators. We do not fully understand how predation intensity and selectivity shape host-parasite dynamics because the interplay between predator density, predator foraging behavior, and ecosystem productivity remains incompletely explored. By modifying a standard susceptible-infected model, we show how productivity can modulate complex behavior induced by saturating and selective foraging behavior of predators in an otherwise stable host-parasite system. When predators strongly prefer parasitized hosts, the host-parasite system can oscillate, but predators can also create alternative stable states, Allee effects, and catastrophic extinction of parasites. In the latter three cases, parasites have difficulty invading and/or persisting in ecosystems. When predators are intermediately selective, these more complex behaviors become less important, but the host-parasite system can switch from stable to oscillating and then back to stable states along a gradient of predator control. Surprisingly, at higher productivity, predators that neutrally select or avoid parasitized hosts can catalyze extinction of both hosts and parasites. Thus, synergy between two enemies can end disastrously for the host. Such diverse outcomes underscore the crucial importance of the community and ecosystem context in which host-parasite interactions occur.