Innovation in prediction planning for anterior open bite correction.

PubMed

Almuzian, Mohammed; Almukhtar, Anas; O'Neil, Michael; Benington, Philip; Al Anezi, Thamer; Ayoub, Ashraf

2015-05-01

This study applies recent advances in 3D virtual imaging for application in the prediction planning of dentofacial deformities. Stereo-photogrammetry has been used to create virtual and physical models, which are creatively combined in planning the surgical correction of anterior open bite. The application of these novel methods is demonstrated through the surgical correction of a case.

Extended Glauert tip correction to include vortex rollup effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maniaci, David; Schmitz, Sven

Wind turbine loads predictions by blade-element momentum theory using the standard tip-loss correction have been shown to over-predict loading near the blade tip in comparison to experimental data. This over-prediction is theorized to be due to the assumption of light rotor loading, inherent in the standard tip-loss correction model of Glauert. A higher- order free-wake method, WindDVE, is used to compute the rollup process of the trailing vortex sheets downstream of wind turbine blades. Results obtained serve an exact correction function to the Glauert tip correction used in blade-element momentum methods. Lastly, it is found that accounting for the effectsmore » of tip vortex rollup within the Glauert tip correction indeed results in improved prediction of blade tip loads computed by blade-element momentum methods.« less

Extended Glauert tip correction to include vortex rollup effects

DOE PAGES

Maniaci, David; Schmitz, Sven

2016-10-03

Wind turbine loads predictions by blade-element momentum theory using the standard tip-loss correction have been shown to over-predict loading near the blade tip in comparison to experimental data. This over-prediction is theorized to be due to the assumption of light rotor loading, inherent in the standard tip-loss correction model of Glauert. A higher- order free-wake method, WindDVE, is used to compute the rollup process of the trailing vortex sheets downstream of wind turbine blades. Results obtained serve an exact correction function to the Glauert tip correction used in blade-element momentum methods. Lastly, it is found that accounting for the effectsmore » of tip vortex rollup within the Glauert tip correction indeed results in improved prediction of blade tip loads computed by blade-element momentum methods.« less

Investigation into the propagation of Omega very low frequency signals and techniques for improvement of navigation accuracy including differential and composite omega

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

An analysis of Very Low Frequency propagation in the atmosphere in the 10-14 kHz range leads to a discussion of some of the more significant causes of phase perturbation. The method of generating sky-wave corrections to predict the Omega phase is discussed. Composite Omega is considered as a means of lane identification and of reducing Omega navigation error. A simple technique for generating trapezoidal model (T-model) phase prediction is presented and compared with the Navy predictions and actual phase measurements. The T-model prediction analysis illustrates the ability to account for the major phase shift created by the diurnal effects on the lower ionosphere. An analysis of the Navy sky-wave correction table is used to provide information about spatial and temporal correlation of phase correction relative to the differential mode of operation.

Dilatation-dissipation corrections for advanced turbulence models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, David C.

1992-01-01

This paper analyzes dilatation-dissipation based compressibility corrections for advanced turbulence models. Numerical computations verify that the dilatation-dissipation corrections devised by Sarkar and Zeman greatly improve both the k-omega and k-epsilon model predicted effect of Mach number on spreading rate. However, computations with the k-gamma model also show that the Sarkar/Zeman terms cause an undesired reduction in skin friction for the compressible flat-plate boundary layer. A perturbation solution for the compressible wall layer shows that the Sarkar and Zeman terms reduce the effective von Karman constant in the law of the wall. This is the source of the inaccurate k-gamma model skin-friction predictions for the flat-plate boundary layer. The perturbation solution also shows that the k-epsilon model has an inherent flaw for compressible boundary layers that is not compensated for by the dilatation-dissipation corrections. A compressibility modification for k-gamma and k-epsilon models is proposed that is similar to those of Sarkar and Zeman. The new compressibility term permits accurate predictions for the compressible mixing layer, flat-plate boundary layer, and a shock separated flow with the same values for all closure coefficients.

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

PubMed

Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-06-01

Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G

2018-02-01

When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

SU-F-J-199: Predictive Models for Cone Beam CT-Based Online Verification of Pencil Beam Scanning Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, L; Lin, A; Ahn, P

Purpose: To utilize online CBCT scans to develop models for predicting DVH metrics in proton therapy of head and neck tumors. Methods: Nine patients with locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer were retrospectively selected in this study. Deformable image registration was applied to the simulation CT, target volumes, and organs at risk (OARs) contours onto each weekly CBCT scan. Intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatment plans were created on the simulation CT and forward calculated onto each corrected CBCT scan. Thirty six potentially predictive metrics were extracted from each corrected CBCT. These features include minimum/maximum/mean over and under-ranges at the proximal andmore » distal surface of PTV volumes, and geometrical and water equivalent distance between PTV and each OARs. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimension of the extracted features. Three principal components were found to account for over 90% of variances in those features. Datasets from eight patients were used to train a machine learning model to fit these principal components with DVH metrics (dose to 95% and 5% of PTV, mean dose or max dose to OARs) from the forward calculated dose on each corrected CBCT. The accuracy of this model was verified on the datasets from the 9th patient. Results: The predicted changes of DVH metrics from the model were in good agreement with actual values calculated on corrected CBCT images. Median differences were within 1 Gy for most DVH metrics except for larynx and constrictor mean dose. However, a large spread of the differences was observed, indicating additional training datasets and predictive features are needed to improve the model. Conclusion: Intensity corrected CBCT scans hold the potential to be used for online verification of proton therapy and prediction of delivered dose distributions.« less

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Reverberant acoustic energy in auditoria that comprise systems of coupled rooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Jason E.

2003-11-01

A frequency-dependent model for reverberant energy in coupled rooms is developed and compared with measurements for a 1:10 scale model and for Bass Hall, Ft. Worth, TX. At high frequencies, prior statistical-acoustics models are improved by geometrical-acoustics corrections for decay within sub-rooms and for energy transfer between sub-rooms. Comparisons of computational geometrical acoustics predictions based on beam-axis tracing with scale model measurements indicate errors resulting from tail-correction assuming constant quadratic growth of reflection density. Using ray tracing in the late part corrects this error. For mid-frequencies, the models are modified to account for wave effects at coupling apertures by including power transmission coefficients. Similarly, statical-acoustics models are improved through more accurate estimates of power transmission measurements. Scale model measurements are in accord with the predicted behavior. The edge-diffraction model is adapted to study transmission through apertures. Multiple-order scattering is theoretically and experimentally shown inaccurate due to neglect of slope diffraction. At low frequencies, perturbation models qualitatively explain scale model measurements. Measurements confirm relation of coupling strength to unperturbed pressure distribution on coupling surfaces. Measurements in Bass Hall exhibit effects of the coupled stage house. High frequency predictions of statistical acoustics and geometrical acoustics models and predictions of coupling apertures all agree with measurements.

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

Statistical bias correction modelling for seasonal rainfall forecast for the case of Bali island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lealdi, D.; Nurdiati, S.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

2018-04-01

Rainfall is an element of climate which is highly influential to the agricultural sector. Rain pattern and distribution highly determines the sustainability of agricultural activities. Therefore, information on rainfall is very useful for agriculture sector and farmers in anticipating the possibility of extreme events which often cause failures of agricultural production. This research aims to identify the biases from seasonal forecast products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) rainfall forecast and to build a transfer function in order to correct the distribution biases as a new prediction model using quantile mapping approach. We apply this approach to the case of Bali Island, and as a result, the use of bias correction methods in correcting systematic biases from the model gives better results. The new prediction model obtained with this approach is better than ever. We found generally that during rainy season, the bias correction approach performs better than in dry season.

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

Modelling milk production from feed intake in dairy cattle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, D.L.

1985-05-01

Predictive models were developed for both Holstein and Jersey cows. Since Holsteins comprised eighty-five percent of the data, the predictive models developed for Holsteins were used for the development of a user-friendly computer model. Predictive models included: milk production (squared multiple correlation .73), natural log (ln) of milk production (.73), four percent fat-corrected milk (.67), ln four percent fat-corrected milk (.68), fat-free milk (.73), ln fat-free milk (.73), dry matter intake (.61), ln dry matter intake (.60), milk fat (.52), and ln milk fat (.56). The predictive models for ln milk production, ln fat-free milk and ln dry matter intakemore » were incorporated into a computer model. The model was written in standard Fortran for use on mainframe or micro-computers. Daily milk production, fat-free milk production, and dry matter intake were predicted on a daily basis with the previous day's dry matter intake serving as an independent variable in the prediction of the daily milk and fat-free milk production. 21 refs.« less

Cell-model prediction of the melting of a Lennard-Jones solid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holian, B.L.

The classical free energy of the Lennard-Jones 6-12 solid is computed from a single-particle anharmonic cell model with a correction to the entropy given by the classical correlational entropy of quasiharmonic lattice dynamics. The free energy of the fluid is obtained from the Hansen-Ree analytic fit to Monte Carlo equation-of-state calculations. The resulting predictions of the solid-fluid coexistence curves by this corrected cell model of the solid are in excellent agreement with the computer experiments.

[Improving apple fruit quality predictions by effective correction of Vis-NIR laser diffuse reflecting images].

PubMed

Qing, Zhao-shen; Ji, Bao-ping; Shi, Bo-lin; Zhu, Da-zhou; Tu, Zhen-hua; Zude, Manuela

2008-06-01

In the present study, improved laser-induced light backscattering imaging was studied regarding its potential for analyzing apple SSC and fruit flesh firmness. Images of the diffuse reflection of light on the fruit surface were obtained from Fuji apples using laser diodes emitting at five wavelength bands (680, 780, 880, 940 and 980 nm). Image processing algorithms were tested to correct for dissimilar equator and shape of fruit, and partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis was applied to calibrate on the fruit quality parameter. In comparison to the calibration based on corrected frequency with the models built by raw data, the former improved r from 0. 78 to 0.80 and from 0.87 to 0.89 for predicting SSC and firmness, respectively. Comparing models based on mean value of intensities with results obtained by frequency of intensities, the latter gave higher performance for predicting Fuji SSC and firmness. Comparing calibration for predicting SSC based on the corrected frequency of intensities and the results obtained from raw data set, the former improved root mean of standard error of prediction (RMSEP) from 1.28 degrees to 0.84 degrees Brix. On the other hand, in comparison to models for analyzing flesh firmness built by means of corrected frequency of intensities with the calibrations based on raw data, the former gave the improvement in RMSEP from 8.23 to 6.17 N x cm(-2).

Predictive models of alcohol use based on attitudes and individual values.

PubMed

García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J

2013-01-01

Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.

Classification tree models for predicting distributions of michigan stream fish from landscape variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, P.J.; Zorn, T.G.; Seelbach, P.W.; Schaeffer, J.S.

2008-01-01

Traditionally, fish habitat requirements have been described from local-scale environmental variables. However, recent studies have shown that studying landscape-scale processes improves our understanding of what drives species assemblages and distribution patterns across the landscape. Our goal was to learn more about constraints on the distribution of Michigan stream fish by examining landscape-scale habitat variables. We used classification trees and landscape-scale habitat variables to create and validate presence-absence models and relative abundance models for Michigan stream fishes. We developed 93 presence-absence models that on average were 72% correct in making predictions for an independent data set, and we developed 46 relative abundance models that were 76% correct in making predictions for independent data. The models were used to create statewide predictive distribution and abundance maps that have the potential to be used for a variety of conservation and scientific purposes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

A dual-process account of auditory change detection.

PubMed

McAnally, Ken I; Martin, Russell L; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Stuart, Geoffrey W; Irvine, Dexter R F; Mattingley, Jason B

2010-08-01

Listeners can be "deaf" to a substantial change in a scene comprising multiple auditory objects unless their attention has been directed to the changed object. It is unclear whether auditory change detection relies on identification of the objects in pre- and post-change scenes. We compared the rates at which listeners correctly identify changed objects with those predicted by change-detection models based on signal detection theory (SDT) and high-threshold theory (HTT). Detected changes were not identified as accurately as predicted by models based on either theory, suggesting that some changes are detected by a process that does not support change identification. Undetected changes were identified as accurately as predicted by the HTT model but much less accurately than predicted by the SDT models. The process underlying change detection was investigated further by determining receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs). ROCs did not conform to those predicted by either a SDT or a HTT model but were well modeled by a dual-process that incorporated HTT and SDT components. The dual-process model also accurately predicted the rates at which detected and undetected changes were correctly identified.

[Discrimination of donkey meat by NIR and chemometrics].

PubMed

Niu, Xiao-Ying; Shao, Li-Min; Dong, Fang; Zhao, Zhi-Lei; Zhu, Yan

2014-10-01

Donkey meat samples (n = 167) from different parts of donkey body (neck, costalia, rump, and tendon), beef (n = 47), pork (n = 51) and mutton (n = 32) samples were used to establish near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIR) classification models in the spectra range of 4,000~12,500 cm(-1). The accuracies of classification models constructed by Mahalanobis distances analysis, soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM), respectively combined with pretreatment of Savitzky-Golay smooth (5, 15 and 25 points) and derivative (first and second), multiplicative scatter correction and standard normal variate, were compared. The optimal models for intact samples were obtained by Mahalanobis distances analysis with the first 11 principal components (PCs) from original spectra as inputs and by LS-SVM with the first 6 PCs as inputs, and correctly classified 100% of calibration set and 98. 96% of prediction set. For minced samples of 7 mm diameter the optimal result was attained by LS-SVM with the first 5 PCs from original spectra as inputs, which gained an accuracy of 100% for calibration and 97.53% for prediction. For minced diameter of 5 mm SIMCA model with the first 8 PCs from original spectra as inputs correctly classified 100% of calibration and prediction. And for minced diameter of 3 mm Mahalanobis distances analysis and SIMCA models both achieved 100% accuracy for calibration and prediction respectively with the first 7 and 9 PCs from original spectra as inputs. And in these models, donkey meat samples were all correctly classified with 100% either in calibration or prediction. The results show that it is feasible that NIR with chemometrics methods is used to discriminate donkey meat from the else meat.

Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.

2015-01-01

This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…

Perspective - Systematic study of Reynolds stress closure models in the computations of plane channel flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demuren, A. O.; Sarkar, S.

1993-01-01

The roles of pressure-strain and turbulent diffusion models in the numerical calculation of turbulent plane channel flows with second-moment closure models are investigated. Three turbulent diffusion and five pressure-strain models are utilized in the computations. The main characteristics of the mean flow and the turbulent fields are compared against experimental data. All the features of the mean flow are correctly predicted by all but one of the Reynolds stress closure models. The Reynolds stress anisotropies in the log layer are predicted to varying degrees of accuracy (good to fair) by the models. None of the models could predict correctly the extent of relaxation towards isotropy in the wake region near the center of the channel. Results from the directional numerical simulation are used to further clarify this behavior of the models.

Systematic study of Reynolds stress closure models in the computations of plane channel flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demuren, A. O.; Sarkar, S.

1992-01-01

The roles of pressure-strain and turbulent diffusion models in the numerical calculation of turbulent plane channel flows with second-moment closure models are investigated. Three turbulent diffusion and five pressure-strain models are utilized in the computations. The main characteristics of the mean flow and the turbulent fields are compared against experimental data. All the features of the mean flow are correctly predicted by all but one of the Reynolds stress closure models. The Reynolds stress anisotropies in the log layer are predicted to varying degrees of accuracy (good to fair) by the models. None of the models could predict correctly the extent of relaxation towards isotropy in the wake region near the center of the channel. Results from the directional numerical simulation are used to further clarify this behavior of the models.

Genomic selection for slaughter age in pigs using the Cox frailty model.

PubMed

Santos, V S; Martins Filho, S; Resende, M D V; Azevedo, C F; Lopes, P S; Guimarães, S E F; Glória, L S; Silva, F F

2015-10-19

The aim of this study was to compare genomic selection methodologies using a linear mixed model and the Cox survival model. We used data from an F2 population of pigs, in which the response variable was the time in days from birth to the culling of the animal and the covariates were 238 markers [237 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) plus the halothane gene]. The data were corrected for fixed effects, and the accuracy of the method was determined based on the correlation of the ranks of predicted genomic breeding values (GBVs) in both models with the corrected phenotypic values. The analysis was repeated with a subset of SNP markers with largest absolute effects. The results were in agreement with the GBV prediction and the estimation of marker effects for both models for uncensored data and for normality. However, when considering censored data, the Cox model with a normal random effect (S1) was more appropriate. Since there was no agreement between the linear mixed model and the imputed data (L2) for the prediction of genomic values and the estimation of marker effects, the model S1 was considered superior as it took into account the latent variable and the censored data. Marker selection increased correlations between the ranks of predicted GBVs by the linear and Cox frailty models and the corrected phenotypic values, and 120 markers were required to increase the predictive ability for the characteristic analyzed.

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storz, M.; Bowman, B.; Branson, J.

The dominant error source in the force models used to predict low perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying high-resolution density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a p to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low perigee satellites.

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storz, Mark F.; Bowman, Bruce R.; Branson, Major James I.; Casali, Stephen J.; Tobiska, W. Kent

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index ap, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.

Study on SOC wavelet analysis for LiFePO4 battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xuepeng; Zhao, Dongmei

2017-08-01

Improving the prediction accuracy of SOC can reduce the complexity of the conservative and control strategy of the strategy such as the scheduling, optimization and planning of LiFePO4 battery system. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the SOC historical data and the external stress factors, the SOC Estimation-Correction Prediction Model based on wavelet analysis is established. Using wavelet neural network prediction model is of high precision to achieve forecast link, external stress measured data is used to update parameters estimation in the model, implement correction link, makes the forecast model can adapt to the LiFePO4 battery under rated condition of charge and discharge the operating point of the variable operation area. The test results show that the method can obtain higher precision prediction model when the input and output of LiFePO4 battery are changed frequently.

A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

2014-01-01

A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

Comprehensive renormalization group analysis of the littlest seesaw model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geib, Tanja; King, Stephen F.

2018-04-01

We present a comprehensive renormalization group analysis of the littlest seesaw model involving two right-handed neutrinos and a very constrained Dirac neutrino Yukawa coupling matrix. We perform the first χ2 analysis of the low energy masses and mixing angles, in the presence of renormalization group corrections, for various right-handed neutrino masses and mass orderings, both with and without supersymmetry. We find that the atmospheric angle, which is predicted to be near maximal in the absence of renormalization group corrections, may receive significant corrections for some nonsupersymmetric cases, bringing it into close agreement with the current best fit value in the first octant. By contrast, in the presence of supersymmetry, the renormalization group corrections are relatively small, and the prediction of a near maximal atmospheric mixing angle is maintained, for the studied cases. Forthcoming results from T2K and NO ν A will decisively test these models at a precision comparable to the renormalization group corrections we have calculated.

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

1974-01-01

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Literature mining supports a next-generation modeling approach to predict cellular byproduct secretion.

PubMed

King, Zachary A; O'Brien, Edward J; Feist, Adam M; Palsson, Bernhard O

2017-01-01

The metabolic byproducts secreted by growing cells can be easily measured and provide a window into the state of a cell; they have been essential to the development of microbiology, cancer biology, and biotechnology. Progress in computational modeling of cells has made it possible to predict metabolic byproduct secretion with bottom-up reconstructions of metabolic networks. However, owing to a lack of data, it has not been possible to validate these predictions across a wide range of strains and conditions. Through literature mining, we were able to generate a database of Escherichia coli strains and their experimentally measured byproduct secretions. We simulated these strains in six historical genome-scale models of E. coli, and we report that the predictive power of the models has increased as they have expanded in size and scope. The latest genome-scale model of metabolism correctly predicts byproduct secretion for 35/89 (39%) of designs. The next-generation genome-scale model of metabolism and gene expression (ME-model) correctly predicts byproduct secretion for 40/89 (45%) of designs, and we show that ME-model predictions could be further improved through kinetic parameterization. We analyze the failure modes of these simulations and discuss opportunities to improve prediction of byproduct secretion. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive and critical review of the predictive properties of the various mass models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

1984-01-01

Since the publication of the 1975 Mass Predictions approximately 300 new atomic masses have been reported. These data come from a variety of experimental studies using diverse techniques and they span a mass range from the lightest isotopes to the very heaviest. It is instructive to compare these data with the 1975 predictions and several others (Moeller and Nix, Monahan, Serduke, Uno and Yamada which appeared latter. Extensive numerical and graphical analyses have been performed to examine the quality of the mass predictions from the various models and to identify features in these models that require correction. In general, theremore » is only rough correlation between the ability of a particular model to reproduce the measured mass surface which had been used to refine its adjustable parameters and that model's ability to predict correctly the new masses. For some models distinct systematic features appear when the new mass data are plotted as functions of relevant physical variables. Global intercomparisons of all the models are made first, followed by several examples of types of analysis performed with individual mass models.« less

Nonlinear modal resonances in low-gravity slosh-spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Lee D.

1991-01-01

Nonlinear models of low gravity slosh, when coupled to spacecraft vibrations, predict intense nonlinear eigenfrequency shifts at zero gravity. These nonlinear frequency shifts are due to internal quadratic and cubic resonances between fluid slosh modes and spacecraft vibration modes. Their existence has been verified experimentally, and they cannot be correctly modeled by approximate, uncoupled nonlinear models, such as pendulum mechanical analogs. These predictions mean that linear slosh assumptions for spacecraft vibration models can be invalid, and may lead to degraded control system stability and performance. However, a complete nonlinear modal analysis will predict the correct dynamic behavior. This paper presents the analytical basis for these results, and discusses the effect of internal resonances on the nonlinear coupled response at zero gravity.

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

Predicting the extent of metabolism using in vitro permeability rate measurements and in silico permeability rate predictions

PubMed Central

Hosey, Chelsea M; Benet, Leslie Z

2015-01-01

The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) can be utilized to predict drug disposition, including interactions with other drugs and transporter or metabolizing enzyme effects based on the extent of metabolism and solubility of a drug. However, defining the extent of metabolism relies upon clinical data. Drugs exhibiting high passive intestinal permeability rates are extensively metabolized. Therefore, we aimed to determine if in vitro measures of permeability rate or in silico permeability rate predictions could predict the extent of metabolism, to determine a reference compound representing the permeability rate above which compounds would be expected to be extensively metabolized, and to predict the major route of elimination of compounds in a two-tier approach utilizing permeability rate and a previously published model predicting the major route of elimination of parent drug. Twenty-two in vitro permeability rate measurement data sets in Caco-2 and MDCK cell lines and PAMPA were collected from the literature, while in silico permeability rate predictions were calculated using ADMET Predictor™ or VolSurf+. The potential for permeability rate to differentiate between extensively and poorly metabolized compounds was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curves. Compounds that yielded the highest sensitivity-specificity average were selected as permeability rate reference standards. The major route of elimination of poorly permeable drugs was predicted by our previously published model and the accuracies and predictive values were calculated. The areas under the receiver operating curves were >0.90 for in vitro measures of permeability rate and >0.80 for the VolSurf+ model of permeability rate, indicating they were able to predict the extent of metabolism of compounds. Labetalol and zidovudine predicted greater than 80% of extensively metabolized drugs correctly and greater than 80% of poorly metabolized drugs correctly in Caco-2 and MDCK, respectively, while theophylline predicted greater than 80% of extensively and poorly metabolized drugs correctly in PAMPA. A two-tier approach predicting elimination route predicts 72±9%, 49±10%, and 66±7% of extensively metabolized, biliarily eliminated, and renally eliminated parent drugs correctly when the permeability rate is predicted in silico and 74±7%, 85±2%, and 73±8% of extensively metabolized, biliarily eliminated, and renally eliminated parent drugs correctly, respectively when the permeability rate is determined in vitro. PMID:25816851

Bayesian Integration of Information in Hippocampal Place Cells

PubMed Central

Madl, Tamas; Franklin, Stan; Chen, Ke; Montaldi, Daniela; Trappl, Robert

2014-01-01

Accurate spatial localization requires a mechanism that corrects for errors, which might arise from inaccurate sensory information or neuronal noise. In this paper, we propose that Hippocampal place cells might implement such an error correction mechanism by integrating different sources of information in an approximately Bayes-optimal fashion. We compare the predictions of our model with physiological data from rats. Our results suggest that useful predictions regarding the firing fields of place cells can be made based on a single underlying principle, Bayesian cue integration, and that such predictions are possible using a remarkably small number of model parameters. PMID:24603429

Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

PubMed

Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

2017-11-01

Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving salt marsh digital elevation model accuracy with full-waveform lidar and nonparametric predictive modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Jeffrey N.; Parrish, Christopher E.; Ward, Larry G.; Burdick, David M.

2018-03-01

Salt marsh vegetation tends to increase vertical uncertainty in light detection and ranging (lidar) derived elevation data, often causing the data to become ineffective for analysis of topographic features governing tidal inundation or vegetation zonation. Previous attempts at improving lidar data collected in salt marsh environments range from simply computing and subtracting the global elevation bias to more complex methods such as computing vegetation-specific, constant correction factors. The vegetation specific corrections can be used along with an existing habitat map to apply separate corrections to different areas within a study site. It is hypothesized here that correcting salt marsh lidar data by applying location-specific, point-by-point corrections, which are computed from lidar waveform-derived features, tidal-datum based elevation, distance from shoreline and other lidar digital elevation model based variables, using nonparametric regression will produce better results. The methods were developed and tested using full-waveform lidar and ground truth for three marshes in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, U.S.A. Five different model algorithms for nonparametric regression were evaluated, with TreeNet's stochastic gradient boosting algorithm consistently producing better regression and classification results. Additionally, models were constructed to predict the vegetative zone (high marsh and low marsh). The predictive modeling methods used in this study estimated ground elevation with a mean bias of 0.00 m and a standard deviation of 0.07 m (0.07 m root mean square error). These methods appear very promising for correction of salt marsh lidar data and, importantly, do not require an existing habitat map, biomass measurements, or image based remote sensing data such as multi/hyperspectral imagery.

Sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing auditory sequences: Modeling temporal adaptation and anticipation.

PubMed

van der Steen, M C Marieke; Jacoby, Nori; Fairhurst, Merle T; Keller, Peter E

2015-11-11

The current study investigated the human ability to synchronize movements with event sequences containing continuous tempo changes. This capacity is evident, for example, in ensemble musicians who maintain precise interpersonal coordination while modulating the performance tempo for expressive purposes. Here we tested an ADaptation and Anticipation Model (ADAM) that was developed to account for such behavior by combining error correction processes (adaptation) with a predictive temporal extrapolation process (anticipation). While previous computational models of synchronization incorporate error correction, they do not account for prediction during tempo-changing behavior. The fit between behavioral data and computer simulations based on four versions of ADAM was assessed. These versions included a model with adaptation only, one in which adaptation and anticipation act in combination (error correction is applied on the basis of predicted tempo changes), and two models in which adaptation and anticipation were linked in a joint module that corrects for predicted discrepancies between the outcomes of adaptive and anticipatory processes. The behavioral experiment required participants to tap their finger in time with three auditory pacing sequences containing tempo changes that differed in the rate of change and the number of turning points. Behavioral results indicated that sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and precision, while generally high, decreased with increases in the rate of tempo change and number of turning points. Simulations and model-based parameter estimates showed that adaptation mechanisms alone could not fully explain the observed precision of sensorimotor synchronization. Including anticipation in the model increased the precision of simulated sensorimotor synchronization and improved the fit of model to behavioral data, especially when adaptation and anticipation mechanisms were linked via a joint module based on the notion of joint internal models. Overall results suggest that adaptation and anticipation mechanisms both play an important role during sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing sequences. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study on predicting network corrections in PPP-RTK processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kan; Khodabandeh, Amir; Teunissen, Peter

2017-10-01

In PPP-RTK processing, the network corrections including the satellite clocks, the satellite phase biases and the ionospheric delays are provided to the users to enable fast single-receiver integer ambiguity resolution. To solve the rank deficiencies in the undifferenced observation equations, the estimable parameters are formed to generate full-rank design matrix. In this contribution, we firstly discuss the interpretation of the estimable parameters without and with a dynamic satellite clock model incorporated in a Kalman filter during the network processing. The functionality of the dynamic satellite clock model is tested in the PPP-RTK processing. Due to the latency generated by the network processing and data transfer, the network corrections are delayed for the real-time user processing. To bridge the latencies, we discuss and compare two prediction approaches making use of the network corrections without and with the dynamic satellite clock model, respectively. The first prediction approach is based on the polynomial fitting of the estimated network parameters, while the second approach directly follows the dynamic model in the Kalman filter of the network processing and utilises the satellite clock drifts estimated in the network processing. Using 1 Hz data from two networks in Australia, the influences of the two prediction approaches on the user positioning results are analysed and compared for latencies ranging from 3 to 10 s. The accuracy of the positioning results decreases with the increasing latency of the network products. For a latency of 3 s, the RMS of the horizontal and the vertical coordinates (with respect to the ground truth) do not show large differences applying both prediction approaches. For a latency of 10 s, the prediction approach making use of the satellite clock model has generated slightly better positioning results with the differences of the RMS at mm-level. Further advantages and disadvantages of both prediction approaches are also discussed in this contribution.

FrameD: A flexible program for quality check and gene prediction in prokaryotic genomes and noisy matured eukaryotic sequences.

PubMed

Schiex, Thomas; Gouzy, Jérôme; Moisan, Annick; de Oliveira, Yannick

2003-07-01

We describe FrameD, a program that predicts coding regions in prokaryotic and matured eukaryotic sequences. Initially targeted at gene prediction in bacterial GC rich genomes, the gene model used in FrameD also allows to predict genes in the presence of frameshifts and partially undetermined sequences which makes it also very suitable for gene prediction and frameshift correction in unfinished sequences such as EST and EST cluster sequences. Like recent eukaryotic gene prediction programs, FrameD also includes the ability to take into account protein similarity information both in its prediction and its graphical output. Its performances are evaluated on different bacterial genomes. The web site (http://genopole.toulouse.inra.fr/bioinfo/FrameD/FD) allows direct prediction, sequence correction and translation and the ability to learn new models for new organisms.

Testing the predictive value of peripheral gene expression for nonremission following citalopram treatment for major depression.

PubMed

Guilloux, Jean-Philippe; Bassi, Sabrina; Ding, Ying; Walsh, Chris; Turecki, Gustavo; Tseng, George; Cyranowski, Jill M; Sibille, Etienne

2015-02-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) in general, and anxious-depression in particular, are characterized by poor rates of remission with first-line treatments, contributing to the chronic illness burden suffered by many patients. Prospective research is needed to identify the biomarkers predicting nonremission prior to treatment initiation. We collected blood samples from a discovery cohort of 34 adult MDD patients with co-occurring anxiety and 33 matched, nondepressed controls at baseline and after 12 weeks (of citalopram plus psychotherapy treatment for the depressed cohort). Samples were processed on gene arrays and group differences in gene expression were investigated. Exploratory analyses suggest that at pretreatment baseline, nonremitting patients differ from controls with gene function and transcription factor analyses potentially related to elevated inflammation and immune activation. In a second phase, we applied an unbiased machine learning prediction model and corrected for model-selection bias. Results show that baseline gene expression predicted nonremission with 79.4% corrected accuracy with a 13-gene model. The same gene-only model predicted nonremission after 8 weeks of citalopram treatment with 76% corrected accuracy in an independent validation cohort of 63 MDD patients treated with citalopram at another institution. Together, these results demonstrate the potential, but also the limitations, of baseline peripheral blood-based gene expression to predict nonremission after citalopram treatment. These results not only support their use in future prediction tools but also suggest that increased accuracy may be obtained with the inclusion of additional predictors (eg, genetics and clinical scales).

Bias correction of temperature produced by the Community Climate System Model using Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghim, S.; Hsu, K.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to predict circulation and energy transfers between the atmosphere and the land. It is known that these models produce biased results that will have impact on their uses. This work proposes a new method for bias correction: the equidistant cumulative distribution function-artificial neural network (EDCDFANN) procedure. The method uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a surrogate model to estimate bias-corrected temperature, given an identification of the system derived from GCM models output variables. A two-layer feed forward neural network is trained with observations during a historical period and then the adjusted network can be used to predict bias-corrected temperature for future periods. To capture the extreme values this method is combined with the equidistant CDF matching method (EDCDF, Li et al. 2010). The proposed method is tested with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) outputs using air and skin temperature, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation as inputs to the ANN. This method decreases the mean square error and increases the spatial correlation between the modeled temperature and the observed one. The results indicate the EDCDFANN has potential to remove the biases of the model outputs.

Of mental models, assumptions and heuristics: The case of acids and acid strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClary, Lakeisha Michelle

This study explored what cognitive resources (i.e., units of knowledge necessary to learn) first-semester organic chemistry students used to make decisions about acid strength and how those resources guided the prediction, explanation and justification of trends in acid strength. We were specifically interested in the identifying and characterizing the mental models, assumptions and heuristics that students relied upon to make their decisions, in most cases under time constraints. The views about acids and acid strength were investigated for twenty undergraduate students. Data sources for this study included written responses and individual interviews. The data was analyzed using a qualitative methodology to answer five research questions. Data analysis regarding these research questions was based on existing theoretical frameworks: problem representation (Chi, Feltovich & Glaser, 1981), mental models (Johnson-Laird, 1983); intuitive assumptions (Talanquer, 2006), and heuristics (Evans, 2008). These frameworks were combined to develop the framework from which our data were analyzed. Results indicated that first-semester organic chemistry students' use of cognitive resources was complex and dependent on their understanding of the behavior of acids. Expressed mental models were generated using prior knowledge and assumptions about acids and acid strength; these models were then employed to make decisions. Explicit and implicit features of the compounds in each task mediated participants' attention, which triggered the use of a very limited number of heuristics, or shortcut reasoning strategies. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Metabolomics for organic food authentication: Results from a long-term field study in carrots.

PubMed

Cubero-Leon, Elena; De Rudder, Olivier; Maquet, Alain

2018-01-15

Increasing demand for organic products and their premium prices make them an attractive target for fraudulent malpractices. In this study, a large-scale comparative metabolomics approach was applied to investigate the effect of the agronomic production system on the metabolite composition of carrots and to build statistical models for prediction purposes. Orthogonal projections to latent structures-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) was applied successfully to predict the origin of the agricultural system of the harvested carrots on the basis of features determined by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. When the training set used to build the OPLS-DA models contained samples representative of each harvest year, the models were able to classify unknown samples correctly (100% correct classification). If a harvest year was left out of the training sets and used for predictions, the correct classification rates achieved ranged from 76% to 100%. The results therefore highlight the potential of metabolomic fingerprinting for organic food authentication purposes. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using a knowledge-based planning solution to select patients for proton therapy.

PubMed

Delaney, Alexander R; Dahele, Max; Tol, Jim P; Kuijper, Ingrid T; Slotman, Ben J; Verbakel, Wilko F A R

2017-08-01

Patient selection for proton therapy by comparing proton/photon treatment plans is time-consuming and prone to bias. RapidPlan™, a knowledge-based-planning solution, uses plan-libraries to model and predict organ-at-risk (OAR) dose-volume-histograms (DVHs). We investigated whether RapidPlan, utilizing an algorithm based only on photon beam characteristics, could generate proton DVH-predictions and whether these could correctly identify patients for proton therapy. Model PROT and Model PHOT comprised 30 head-and-neck cancer proton and photon plans, respectively. Proton and photon knowledge-based-plans (KBPs) were made for ten evaluation-patients. DVH-prediction accuracy was analyzed by comparing predicted-vs-achieved mean OAR doses. KBPs and manual plans were compared using salivary gland and swallowing muscle mean doses. For illustration, patients were selected for protons if predicted Model PHOT mean dose minus predicted Model PROT mean dose (ΔPrediction) for combined OARs was ≥6Gy, and benchmarked using achieved KBP doses. Achieved and predicted Model PROT /Model PHOT mean dose R 2 was 0.95/0.98. Generally, achieved mean dose for Model PHOT /Model PROT KBPs was respectively lower/higher than predicted. Comparing Model PROT /Model PHOT KBPs with manual plans, salivary and swallowing mean doses increased/decreased by <2Gy, on average. ΔPrediction≥6Gy correctly selected 4 of 5 patients for protons. Knowledge-based DVH-predictions can provide efficient, patient-specific selection for protons. A proton-specific RapidPlan-solution could improve results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sex Determination of Carolina Wrens (Thryothorus ludovicianus) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, D.J.

2004-01-01

I identified sexual dimorphism in wing length (unflattened chord) of Carolina Wrens (Thryothorus ludovicianus) within the central Mississippi Alluvial Valley (northeast Louisiana and west-central Mississippi) and used this difference to assign a sex to captured wrens. Wrens were identified as female when wing length was less than 57.5 mm or male when wing length was greater than 58.5 mm. Verification of predicted sex was obtained from recaptures of banded individuals where sex was ascertained from the presence of a cloacal protuberance or brood patch. Correct prediction of sex was 81% for adult females and 95% for adult males. An alternative model, which categorized wrens with wing lengths of 58 and 59 mm as birds of unknown sex, increased correct prediction of females to 93% but reduced the number of individuals to which sex was assigned. These simple, predictive, wing-length-based models also correctly assigned sex for more than 88% of young (hatching-year) birds.

Some Empirical Evidence for Latent Trait Model Selection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutten, Leah R.

The results of this study suggest that for purposes of estimating ability by latent trait methods, the Rasch model compares favorably with the three-parameter logistic model. Using estimated parameters to make predictions about 25 actual number-correct score distributions with samples of 1,000 cases each, those predicted by the Rasch model fit the…

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and Project No. PJ009353, Republic of Korea. Reference Hur, J., J.-B. Ahn, 2015. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date over South Korea, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4323.

Precise predictions of H2O line shapes over a wide pressure range using simulations corrected by a single measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo, N. H.; Nguyen, H. T.; Tran, H.

2018-03-01

In this work, we show that precise predictions of the shapes of H2O rovibrational lines broadened by N2, over a wide pressure range, can be made using simulations corrected by a single measurement. For that, we use the partially-correlated speed-dependent Keilson-Storer (pcsdKS) model whose parameters are deduced from molecular dynamics simulations and semi-classical calculations. This model takes into account the collision-induced velocity-changes effects, the speed dependences of the collisional line width and shift as well as the correlation between velocity and internal-state changes. For each considered transition, the model is corrected by using a parameter deduced from its broadening coefficient measured for a single pressure. The corrected-pcsdKS model is then used to simulate spectra for a wide pressure range. Direct comparisons of the corrected-pcsdKS calculated and measured spectra of 5 rovibrational lines of H2O for various pressures, from 0.1 to 1.2 atm, show very good agreements. Their maximum differences are in most cases well below 1%, much smaller than residuals obtained when fitting the measurements with the Voigt line shape. This shows that the present procedure can be used to predict H2O line shapes for various pressure conditions and thus the simulated spectra can be used to deduce the refined line-shape parameters to complete spectroscopic databases, in the absence of relevant experimental values.

Determining spherical lens correction for astronaut training underwater.

PubMed

Porter, Jason; Gibson, C Robert; Strauss, Samuel

2011-09-01

To develop a model that will accurately predict the distance spherical lens correction needed to be worn by National Aeronautics and Space Administration astronauts while training underwater. The replica space suit's helmet contains curved visors that induce refractive power when submersed in water. Anterior surface powers and thicknesses were measured for the helmet's protective and inside visors. The impact of each visor on the helmet's refractive power in water was analyzed using thick lens calculations and Zemax optical design software. Using geometrical optics approximations, a model was developed to determine the optimal distance spherical power needed to be worn underwater based on the helmet's total induced spherical power underwater and the astronaut's manifest spectacle plane correction in air. The validity of the model was tested using data from both eyes of 10 astronauts who trained underwater. The helmet's visors induced a total power of -2.737 D when placed underwater. The required underwater spherical correction (FW) was linearly related to the spectacle plane spherical correction in air (FAir): FW = FAir + 2.356 D. The mean magnitude of the difference between the actual correction worn underwater and the calculated underwater correction was 0.20 ± 0.11 D. The actual and calculated values were highly correlated (r = 0.971) with 70% of eyes having a difference in magnitude of <0.25 D between values. We devised a model to calculate the spherical spectacle lens correction needed to be worn underwater by National Aeronautics and Space Administration astronauts. The model accurately predicts the actual values worn underwater and can be applied (more generally) to determine a suitable spectacle lens correction to be worn behind other types of masks when submerged underwater.

Determining spherical lens correction for astronaut training underwater

PubMed Central

Porter, Jason; Gibson, C. Robert; Strauss, Samuel

2013-01-01

Purpose To develop a model that will accurately predict the distance spherical lens correction needed to be worn by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) astronauts while training underwater. The replica space suit’s helmet contains curved visors that induce refractive power when submersed in water. Methods Anterior surface powers and thicknesses were measured for the helmet’s protective and inside visors. The impact of each visor on the helmet’s refractive power in water was analyzed using thick lens calculations and Zemax optical design software. Using geometrical optics approximations, a model was developed to determine the optimal distance spherical power needed to be worn underwater based on the helmet’s total induced spherical power underwater and the astronaut’s manifest spectacle plane correction in air. The validity of the model was tested using data from both eyes of 10 astronauts who trained underwater. Results The helmet visors induced a total power of −2.737 D when placed underwater. The required underwater spherical correction (FW) was linearly related to the spectacle plane spherical correction in air (FAir): FW = FAir + 2.356 D. The mean magnitude of the difference between the actual correction worn underwater and the calculated underwater correction was 0.20 ± 0.11 D. The actual and calculated values were highly correlated (R = 0.971) with 70% of eyes having a difference in magnitude of < 0.25 D between values. Conclusions We devised a model to calculate the spherical spectacle lens correction needed to be worn underwater by National Aeronautics and Space Administration astronauts. The model accurately predicts the actual values worn underwater and can be applied (more generally) to determine a suitable spectacle lens correction to be worn behind other types of masks when submerged underwater. PMID:21623249

Calibration transfer of a Raman spectroscopic quantification method for the assessment of liquid detergent compositions from at-line laboratory to in-line industrial scale.

PubMed

Brouckaert, D; Uyttersprot, J-S; Broeckx, W; De Beer, T

2018-03-01

Calibration transfer or standardisation aims at creating a uniform spectral response on different spectroscopic instruments or under varying conditions, without requiring a full recalibration for each situation. In the current study, this strategy is applied to construct at-line multivariate calibration models and consequently employ them in-line in a continuous industrial production line, using the same spectrometer. Firstly, quantitative multivariate models are constructed at-line at laboratory scale for predicting the concentration of two main ingredients in hard surface cleaners. By regressing the Raman spectra of a set of small-scale calibration samples against their reference concentration values, partial least squares (PLS) models are developed to quantify the surfactant levels in the liquid detergent compositions under investigation. After evaluating the models performance with a set of independent validation samples, a univariate slope/bias correction is applied in view of transporting these at-line calibration models to an in-line manufacturing set-up. This standardisation technique allows a fast and easy transfer of the PLS regression models, by simply correcting the model predictions on the in-line set-up, without adjusting anything to the original multivariate calibration models. An extensive statistical analysis is performed in order to assess the predictive quality of the transferred regression models. Before and after transfer, the R 2 and RMSEP of both models is compared for evaluating if their magnitude is similar. T-tests are then performed to investigate whether the slope and intercept of the transferred regression line are not statistically different from 1 and 0, respectively. Furthermore, it is inspected whether no significant bias can be noted. F-tests are executed as well, for assessing the linearity of the transfer regression line and for investigating the statistical coincidence of the transfer and validation regression line. Finally, a paired t-test is performed to compare the original at-line model to the slope/bias corrected in-line model, using interval hypotheses. It is shown that the calibration models of Surfactant 1 and Surfactant 2 yield satisfactory in-line predictions after slope/bias correction. While Surfactant 1 passes seven out of eight statistical tests, the recommended validation parameters are 100% successful for Surfactant 2. It is hence concluded that the proposed strategy for transferring at-line calibration models to an in-line industrial environment via a univariate slope/bias correction of the predicted values offers a successful standardisation approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferring interventional predictions from observational learning data.

PubMed

Meder, Bjorn; Hagmayer, York; Waldmann, Michael R

2008-02-01

Previous research has shown that people are capable of deriving correct predictions for previously unseen actions from passive observations of causal systems (Waldmann & Hagmayer, 2005). However, these studies were limited, since learning data were presented as tabulated data only, which may have turned the task more into a reasoning rather than a learning task. In two experiments, we therefore presented learners with trial-by-trial observational learning input referring to a complex causal model consisting of four events. To test the robustness of the capacity to derive correct observational and interventional inferences, we pitted causal order against the temporal order of learning events. The results show that people are, in principle, capable of deriving correct predictions after purely observational trial-by-trial learning, even with relatively complex causal models. However, conflicting temporal information can impair performance, particularly when the inferences require taking alternative causal pathways into account.

Joint use of over- and under-sampling techniques and cross-validation for the development and assessment of prediction models.

PubMed

Blagus, Rok; Lusa, Lara

2015-11-04

Prediction models are used in clinical research to develop rules that can be used to accurately predict the outcome of the patients based on some of their characteristics. They represent a valuable tool in the decision making process of clinicians and health policy makers, as they enable them to estimate the probability that patients have or will develop a disease, will respond to a treatment, or that their disease will recur. The interest devoted to prediction models in the biomedical community has been growing in the last few years. Often the data used to develop the prediction models are class-imbalanced as only few patients experience the event (and therefore belong to minority class). Prediction models developed using class-imbalanced data tend to achieve sub-optimal predictive accuracy in the minority class. This problem can be diminished by using sampling techniques aimed at balancing the class distribution. These techniques include under- and oversampling, where a fraction of the majority class samples are retained in the analysis or new samples from the minority class are generated. The correct assessment of how the prediction model is likely to perform on independent data is of crucial importance; in the absence of an independent data set, cross-validation is normally used. While the importance of correct cross-validation is well documented in the biomedical literature, the challenges posed by the joint use of sampling techniques and cross-validation have not been addressed. We show that care must be taken to ensure that cross-validation is performed correctly on sampled data, and that the risk of overestimating the predictive accuracy is greater when oversampling techniques are used. Examples based on the re-analysis of real datasets and simulation studies are provided. We identify some results from the biomedical literature where the incorrect cross-validation was performed, where we expect that the performance of oversampling techniques was heavily overestimated.

Experimental evaluation of a mathematical model for predicting transfer efficiency of a high volume-low pressure air spray gun.

PubMed

Tan, Y M; Flynn, M R

2000-10-01

The transfer efficiency of a spray-painting gun is defined as the amount of coating applied to the workpiece divided by the amount sprayed. Characterizing this transfer process allows for accurate estimation of the overspray generation rate, which is important for determining a spray painter's exposure to airborne contaminants. This study presents an experimental evaluation of a mathematical model for predicting the transfer efficiency of a high volume-low pressure spray gun. The effects of gun-to-surface distance and nozzle pressure on the agreement between the transfer efficiency measurement and prediction were examined. Wind tunnel studies and non-volatile vacuum pump oil in place of commercial paint were used to determine transfer efficiency at nine gun-to-surface distances and four nozzle pressure levels. The mathematical model successfully predicts transfer efficiency within the uncertainty limits. The least squares regression between measured and predicted transfer efficiency has a slope of 0.83 and an intercept of 0.12 (R2 = 0.98). Two correction factors were determined to improve the mathematical model. At higher nozzle pressure settings, 6.5 psig and 5.5 psig, the correction factor is a function of both gun-to-surface distance and nozzle pressure level. At lower nozzle pressures, 4 psig and 2.75 psig, gun-to-surface distance slightly influences the correction factor, while nozzle pressure has no discernible effect.

Effects of ionic strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Solon, Kimberly; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Volcke, Eveline I P; Tait, Stephan; Batstone, Damien; Gernaey, Krist V; Jeppsson, Ulf

2015-03-01

Plant-wide models of wastewater treatment (such as the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 or BSM2) are gaining popularity for use in holistic virtual studies of treatment plant control and operations. The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections) and ion pairing on modelling of anaerobic digestion processes in such plant-wide models of wastewater treatment. Using the BSM2 as a case study with a number of model variants and cationic load scenarios, this paper presents the effects of an improved physico-chemical description on model predictions and overall plant performance indicators, namely effluent quality index (EQI) and operational cost index (OCI). The acid-base equilibria implemented in the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) are modified to account for non-ideal aqueous-phase chemistry. The model corrects for ionic strength via the Davies approach to consider chemical activities instead of molar concentrations. A speciation sub-routine based on a multi-dimensional Newton-Raphson (NR) iteration method is developed to address algebraic interdependencies. The model also includes ion pairs that play an important role in wastewater treatment. The paper describes: 1) how the anaerobic digester performance is affected by physico-chemical corrections; 2) the effect on pH and the anaerobic digestion products (CO2, CH4 and H2); and, 3) how these variations are propagated from the sludge treatment to the water line. Results at high ionic strength demonstrate that corrections to account for non-ideal conditions lead to significant differences in predicted process performance (up to 18% for effluent quality and 7% for operational cost) but that for pH prediction, activity corrections are more important than ion pairing effects. Both are likely to be required when precipitation is to be modelled. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ab Initio structure prediction for Escherichia coli: towards genome-wide protein structure modeling and fold assignment

PubMed Central

Xu, Dong; Zhang, Yang

2013-01-01

Genome-wide protein structure prediction and structure-based function annotation have been a long-term goal in molecular biology but not yet become possible due to difficulties in modeling distant-homology targets. We developed a hybrid pipeline combining ab initio folding and template-based modeling for genome-wide structure prediction applied to the Escherichia coli genome. The pipeline was tested on 43 known sequences, where QUARK-based ab initio folding simulation generated models with TM-score 17% higher than that by traditional comparative modeling methods. For 495 unknown hard sequences, 72 are predicted to have a correct fold (TM-score > 0.5) and 321 have a substantial portion of structure correctly modeled (TM-score > 0.35). 317 sequences can be reliably assigned to a SCOP fold family based on structural analogy to existing proteins in PDB. The presented results, as a case study of E. coli, represent promising progress towards genome-wide structure modeling and fold family assignment using state-of-the-art ab initio folding algorithms. PMID:23719418

Caliber Corrected Markov Modeling (C2M2): Correcting Equilibrium Markov Models.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D; Dill, Ken A

2018-02-13

Rate processes are often modeled using Markov State Models (MSMs). Suppose you know a prior MSM and then learn that your prediction of some particular observable rate is wrong. What is the best way to correct the whole MSM? For example, molecular dynamics simulations of protein folding may sample many microstates, possibly giving correct pathways through them while also giving the wrong overall folding rate when compared to experiment. Here, we describe Caliber Corrected Markov Modeling (C 2 M 2 ), an approach based on the principle of maximum entropy for updating a Markov model by imposing state- and trajectory-based constraints. We show that such corrections are equivalent to asserting position-dependent diffusion coefficients in continuous-time continuous-space Markov processes modeled by a Smoluchowski equation. We derive the functional form of the diffusion coefficient explicitly in terms of the trajectory-based constraints. We illustrate with examples of 2D particle diffusion and an overdamped harmonic oscillator.

A comparison of acoustic and observed sediment classifications as predictor variables for modelling biotope distributions in Galway Bay, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Carroll, Jack P. J.; Kennedy, Robert; Ren, Lei; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael; Brown, Colin

2017-10-01

The INFOMAR (Integrated Mapping For the Sustainable Development of Ireland's Marine Resource) initiative has acoustically mapped and classified a significant proportion of Ireland's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and is likely to be an important tool in Ireland's efforts to meet the criteria of the MSFD. In this study, open source and relic data were used in combination with new grab survey data to model EUNIS level 4 biotope distributions in Galway Bay, Ireland. The correct prediction rates of two artificial neural networks (ANNs) were compared to assess the effectiveness of acoustic sediment classifications versus sediments that were visually classified by an expert in the field as predictor variables. To test for autocorrelation between predictor variables the RELATE routine with Spearman rank correlation method was used. Optimal models were derived by iteratively removing predictor variables and comparing the correct prediction rates of each model. The models with the highest correct prediction rates were chosen as optimal. The optimal models each used a combination of salinity (binary; 0 = polyhaline and 1 = euhaline), proximity to reef (binary; 0 = within 50 m and 1 = outside 50 m), depth (continuous; metres) and a sediment descriptor (acoustic or observed) as predictor variables. As the status of benthic habitats is required to be assessed under the MSFD the Ecological Status (ES) of the subtidal sediments of Galway Bay was also assessed using the Infaunal Quality Index. The ANN that used observed sediment classes as predictor variables could correctly predict the distribution of biotopes 67% of the time, compared to 63% for the ANN using acoustic sediment classes. Acoustic sediment ANN predictions were affected by local sediment heterogeneity, and the lack of a mixed sediment class. The all-round poor performance of ANNs is likely to be a result of the temporally variable and sparsely distributed data within the study area.

How much detail is needed in modeling a transcranial magnetic stimulation figure-8 coil: Measurements and brain simulations

PubMed Central

Mandija, Stefano; Sommer, Iris E. C.; van den Berg, Cornelis A. T.; Neggers, Sebastiaan F. W.

2017-01-01

Background Despite TMS wide adoption, its spatial and temporal patterns of neuronal effects are not well understood. Although progress has been made in predicting induced currents in the brain using realistic finite element models (FEM), there is little consensus on how a magnetic field of a typical TMS coil should be modeled. Empirical validation of such models is limited and subject to several limitations. Methods We evaluate and empirically validate models of a figure-of-eight TMS coil that are commonly used in published modeling studies, of increasing complexity: simple circular coil model; coil with in-plane spiral winding turns; and finally one with stacked spiral winding turns. We will assess the electric fields induced by all 3 coil models in the motor cortex using a computer FEM model. Biot-Savart models of discretized wires were used to approximate the 3 coil models of increasing complexity. We use a tailored MR based phase mapping technique to get a full 3D validation of the incident magnetic field induced in a cylindrical phantom by our TMS coil. FEM based simulations on a meshed 3D brain model consisting of five tissues types were performed, using two orthogonal coil orientations. Results Substantial differences in the induced currents are observed, both theoretically and empirically, between highly idealized coils and coils with correctly modeled spiral winding turns. Thickness of the coil winding turns affect minimally the induced electric field, and it does not influence the predicted activation. Conclusion TMS coil models used in FEM simulations should include in-plane coil geometry in order to make reliable predictions of the incident field. Modeling the in-plane coil geometry is important to correctly simulate the induced electric field and to correctly make reliable predictions of neuronal activation PMID:28640923

Canopy Temperature and Vegetation Indices from High-Throughput Phenotyping Improve Accuracy of Pedigree and Genomic Selection for Grain Yield in Wheat

PubMed Central

Rutkoski, Jessica; Poland, Jesse; Mondal, Suchismita; Autrique, Enrique; Pérez, Lorena González; Crossa, José; Reynolds, Matthew; Singh, Ravi

2016-01-01

Genomic selection can be applied prior to phenotyping, enabling shorter breeding cycles and greater rates of genetic gain relative to phenotypic selection. Traits measured using high-throughput phenotyping based on proximal or remote sensing could be useful for improving pedigree and genomic prediction model accuracies for traits not yet possible to phenotype directly. We tested if using aerial measurements of canopy temperature, and green and red normalized difference vegetation index as secondary traits in pedigree and genomic best linear unbiased prediction models could increase accuracy for grain yield in wheat, Triticum aestivum L., using 557 lines in five environments. Secondary traits on training and test sets, and grain yield on the training set were modeled as multivariate, and compared to univariate models with grain yield on the training set only. Cross validation accuracies were estimated within and across-environment, with and without replication, and with and without correcting for days to heading. We observed that, within environment, with unreplicated secondary trait data, and without correcting for days to heading, secondary traits increased accuracies for grain yield by 56% in pedigree, and 70% in genomic prediction models, on average. Secondary traits increased accuracy slightly more when replicated, and considerably less when models corrected for days to heading. In across-environment prediction, trends were similar but less consistent. These results show that secondary traits measured in high-throughput could be used in pedigree and genomic prediction to improve accuracy. This approach could improve selection in wheat during early stages if validated in early-generation breeding plots. PMID:27402362

Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines

DOEpatents

Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

2016-08-30

Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.

Parameter prediction based on Improved Process neural network and ARMA error compensation in Evaporation Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xiaoshan

2018-01-01

The traditional model of evaporation process parameters have continuity and cumulative characteristics of the prediction error larger issues, based on the basis of the process proposed an adaptive particle swarm neural network forecasting method parameters established on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error correction procedure compensated prediction model to predict the results of the neural network to improve prediction accuracy. Taking a alumina plant evaporation process to analyze production data validation, and compared with the traditional model, the new model prediction accuracy greatly improved, can be used to predict the dynamic process of evaporation of sodium aluminate solution components.

The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

PubMed

Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A

2013-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

Building a Better Fragment Library for De Novo Protein Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

de Oliveira, Saulo H. P.; Shi, Jiye; Deane, Charlotte M.

2015-01-01

Fragment-based approaches are the current standard for de novo protein structure prediction. These approaches rely on accurate and reliable fragment libraries to generate good structural models. In this work, we describe a novel method for structure fragment library generation and its application in fragment-based de novo protein structure prediction. The importance of correct testing procedures in assessing the quality of fragment libraries is demonstrated. In particular, the exclusion of homologs to the target from the libraries to correctly simulate a de novo protein structure prediction scenario, something which surprisingly is not always done. We demonstrate that fragments presenting different predominant predicted secondary structures should be treated differently during the fragment library generation step and that exhaustive and random search strategies should both be used. This information was used to develop a novel method, Flib. On a validation set of 41 structurally diverse proteins, Flib libraries presents both a higher precision and coverage than two of the state-of-the-art methods, NNMake and HHFrag. Flib also achieves better precision and coverage on the set of 275 protein domains used in the two previous experiments of the the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP9 and CASP10). We compared Flib libraries against NNMake libraries in a structure prediction context. Of the 13 cases in which a correct answer was generated, Flib models were more accurate than NNMake models for 10. “Flib is available for download at: http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/research/proteins/resources”. PMID:25901595

SU-F-T-143: Implementation of a Correction-Based Output Model for a Compact Passively Scattered Proton Therapy System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferguson, S; Ahmad, S; Chen, Y

2016-06-15

Purpose: To commission and investigate the accuracy of an output (cGy/MU) prediction model for a compact passively scattered proton therapy system. Methods: A previously published output prediction model (Sahoo et al, Med Phys, 35, 5088–5097, 2008) was commissioned for our Mevion S250 proton therapy system. This model is a correction-based model that multiplies correction factors (d/MUwnc=ROFxSOBPF xRSFxSOBPOCFxOCRxFSFxISF). These factors accounted for changes in output due to options (12 large, 5 deep, and 7 small), modulation width M, range R, off-center, off-axis, field-size, and off-isocenter. In this study, the model was modified to ROFxSOBPFxRSFxOCRxFSFxISF-OCFxGACF by merging SOBPOCF and ISF for simplicitymore » and introducing a gantry angle correction factor (GACF). To commission the model, outputs over 1,000 data points were taken at the time of the system commissioning. The output was predicted by interpolation (1D for SOBPF, FSF, and GACF; 2D for RSF and OCR) with inverse-square calculation (ISF-OCR). The outputs of 273 combinations of R and M covering total 24 options were measured to test the model. To minimize fluence perturbation, scattered dose from range compensator and patient was not considered. The percent differences between the predicted (P) and measured (M) outputs were calculated to test the prediction accuracy ([P-M]/Mx100%). Results: GACF was required because of up to 3.5% output variation dependence on the gantry angle. A 2D interpolation was required for OCR because the dose distribution was not radially symmetric especially for the deep options. The average percent differences were −0.03±0.98% (mean±SD) and the differences of all the measurements fell within ±3%. Conclusion: It is concluded that the model can be clinically used for the compact passively scattered proton therapy system. However, great care should be taken when the field-size is less than 5×5 cm{sup 2} where a direct output measurement is required due to substantial output change by irregular block shape.« less

Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, David P.

2007-01-01

Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

Theoretical prediction of crystallization kinetics of a supercooled Lennard-Jones fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawardana, K. G. S. H.; Song, Xueyu

2018-05-01

The first order curvature correction to the crystal-liquid interfacial free energy is calculated using a theoretical model based on the interfacial excess thermodynamic properties. The correction parameter (δ), which is analogous to the Tolman length at a liquid-vapor interface, is found to be 0.48 ± 0.05 for a Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluid. We show that this curvature correction is crucial in predicting the nucleation barrier when the size of the crystal nucleus is small. The thermodynamic driving force (Δμ) corresponding to available simulated nucleation conditions is also calculated by combining the simulated data with a classical density functional theory. In this paper, we show that the classical nucleation theory is capable of predicting the nucleation barrier with excellent agreement to the simulated results when the curvature correction to the interfacial free energy is accounted for.

Recognition Memory zROC Slopes for Items with Correct versus Incorrect Source Decisions Discriminate the Dual Process and Unequal Variance Signal Detection Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Hautus, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We tested the dual process and unequal variance signal detection models by jointly modeling recognition and source confidence ratings. The 2 approaches make unique predictions for the slope of the recognition memory zROC function for items with correct versus incorrect source decisions. The standard bivariate Gaussian version of the unequal…

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Langevin dynamics encapsulate the microscopic and emergent macroscopic properties of midge swarms

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

In contrast to bird flocks, fish schools and animal herds, midge swarms maintain cohesion but do not possess global order. High-speed imaging techniques are now revealing that these swarms have surprising properties. Here, I show that simple models found on the Langevin equation are consistent with this wealth of recent observations. The models predict correctly that large accelerations, exceeding 10 g, will be common and they predict correctly the coexistence of core condensed phases surrounded by dilute vapour phases. The models also provide new insights into the influence of environmental conditions on swarm dynamics. They predict that correlations between midges increase the strength of the effective force binding the swarm together. This may explain why such correlations are absent in laboratory swarms but present in natural swarms which contend with the wind and other disturbances. Finally, the models predict that swarms have fluid-like macroscopic mechanical properties and will slosh rather than slide back and forth after being abruptly displaced. This prediction offers a promising avenue for future experimentation that goes beyond current quasi-static testing which has revealed solid-like responses. PMID:29298958

Multi-jet merged top-pair production including electroweak corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gütschow, Christian; Lindert, Jonas M.; Schönherr, Marek

2018-04-01

We present theoretical predictions for the production of top-quark pairs in association with jets at the LHC including electroweak (EW) corrections. First, we present and compare differential predictions at the fixed-order level for t\\bar{t} and t\\bar{t}+ {jet} production at the LHC considering the dominant NLO EW corrections of order O(α_{s}^2 α ) and O(α_{s}^3 α ) respectively together with all additional subleading Born and one-loop contributions. The NLO EW corrections are enhanced at large energies and in particular alter the shape of the top transverse momentum distribution, whose reliable modelling is crucial for many searches for new physics at the energy frontier. Based on the fixed-order results we motivate an approximation of the EW corrections valid at the percent level, that allows us to readily incorporate the EW corrections in the MePs@Nlo framework of Sherpa combined with OpenLoops. Subsequently, we present multi-jet merged parton-level predictions for inclusive top-pair production incorporating NLO QCD + EW corrections to t\\bar{t} and t\\bar{t}+ {jet}. Finally, we compare at the particle-level against a recent 8 TeV measurement of the top transverse momentum distribution performed by ATLAS in the lepton + jet channel. We find very good agreement between the Monte Carlo prediction and the data when the EW corrections are included.

Prediction of Complex Aerodynamic Flows with Explicit Algebraic Stress Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abid, Ridha; Morrison, Joseph H.; Gatski, Thomas B.; Speziale, Charles G.

1996-01-01

An explicit algebraic stress equation, developed by Gatski and Speziale, is used in the framework of K-epsilon formulation to predict complex aerodynamic turbulent flows. The nonequilibrium effects are modeled through coefficients that depend nonlinearly on both rotational and irrotational strains. The proposed model was implemented in the ISAAC Navier-Stokes code. Comparisons with the experimental data are presented which clearly demonstrate that explicit algebraic stress models can predict the correct response to nonequilibrium flow.

Evaluation of data transformations used with the square root and schoolfield models for predicting bacterial growth rate.

PubMed Central

Alber, S A; Schaffner, D W

1992-01-01

A comparison was made between mathematical variations of the square root and Schoolfield models for predicting growth rate as a function of temperature. The statistical consequences of square root and natural logarithm transformations of growth rate use in several variations of the Schoolfield and square root models were examined. Growth rate variances of Yersinia enterocolitica in brain heart infusion broth increased as a function of temperature. The ability of the two data transformations to correct for the heterogeneity of variance was evaluated. A natural logarithm transformation of growth rate was more effective than a square root transformation at correcting for the heterogeneity of variance. The square root model was more accurate than the Schoolfield model when both models used natural logarithm transformation. PMID:1444367

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

PubMed

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

2018-01-15

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

Sound radiation of a railway rail in close proximity to the ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xianying; Squicciarini, Giacomo; Thompson, David J.

2016-02-01

The sound radiation of a railway in close to proximity to a ground (both rigid and absorptive) is predicted by the boundary element method (BEM) in two dimensions (2D). Results are given in terms of the radiation ratio for both vertical and lateral motion of the rail, when the effects of the acoustic boundary conditions due to the sleepers and ballast are taken into account in the numerical models. Allowance is made for the effect of wave propagation along the rail by applying a correction in the 2D modelling. It is shown that the 2D correction is necessary at low frequency, for both vertical and lateral motion of an unsupported rail, especially in the vicinity of the corresponding critical frequency. However, this correction is not applicable for a supported rail; for vertical motion no correction is needed to the 2D result while for lateral motion the corresponding correction would depend on the pad stiffness. Finally, the corresponding numerical predictions of the sound radiation from a rail are verified by comparison with experimental results obtained using a 1/5 scale rail model in different configurations.

Absolute, SI-traceable lunar irradiance tie-points for the USGS Lunar Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Steven W.; Eplee, Robert E.; Xiong, Xiaoxiong J.

2017-10-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an empirical model, known as the Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) Model, that predicts the reflectance of the Moon for any Sun-sensor-Moon configuration over the spectral range from 350 nm to 2500 nm. The lunar irradiance can be predicted from the modeled lunar reflectance using a spectrum of the incident solar irradiance. While extremely successful as a relative exo-atmospheric calibration target, the ROLO Model is not SI-traceable and has estimated uncertainties too large for the Moon to be used as an absolute celestial calibration target. In this work, two recent absolute, low uncertainty, SI-traceable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) lunar irradiances, measured over the spectral range from 380 nm to 1040 nm, at lunar phase angles of 6.6° and 16.9° , are used as tie-points to the output of the ROLO Model. Combined with empirically derived phase and libration corrections to the output of the ROLO Model and uncertainty estimates in those corrections, the measurements enable development of a corrected TOA lunar irradiance model and its uncertainty budget for phase angles between +/-80° and libration angles from 7° to 51° . The uncertainties in the empirically corrected output from the ROLO model are approximately 1 % from 440 nm to 865 nm and increase to almost 3 % at 412 nm. The dominant components in the uncertainty budget are the uncertainty in the absolute TOA lunar irradiance and the uncertainty in the fit to the phase correction from the output of the ROLO model.

Factors influencing behavior and transferability of habitat models for a benthic stream fish

Treesearch

Kevin N. Leftwich; Paul L. Angermeier; C. Andrew Dolloff

1997-01-01

The authors examined the predictive power and transferability of habitat-based models by comparing associations of tangerine darter Percina aurantiaca and stream habitat at local and regional scales in North Fork Holston River (NFHR) and Little River, VA. The models correctly predicted the presence or absence of tangerine darters in NFHR for 64 percent (local model)...

Using Blur to Affect Perceived Distance and Size

PubMed Central

HELD, ROBERT T.; COOPER, EMILY A.; O’BRIEN, JAMES F.; BANKS, MARTIN S.

2011-01-01

We present a probabilistic model of how viewers may use defocus blur in conjunction with other pictorial cues to estimate the absolute distances to objects in a scene. Our model explains how the pattern of blur in an image together with relative depth cues indicates the apparent scale of the image’s contents. From the model, we develop a semiautomated algorithm that applies blur to a sharply rendered image and thereby changes the apparent distance and scale of the scene’s contents. To examine the correspondence between the model/algorithm and actual viewer experience, we conducted an experiment with human viewers and compared their estimates of absolute distance to the model’s predictions. We did this for images with geometrically correct blur due to defocus and for images with commonly used approximations to the correct blur. The agreement between the experimental data and model predictions was excellent. The model predicts that some approximations should work well and that others should not. Human viewers responded to the various types of blur in much the way the model predicts. The model and algorithm allow one to manipulate blur precisely and to achieve the desired perceived scale efficiently. PMID:21552429

An operational large-scale marine planetary boundary layer model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. A.; Liu, W. T.

1982-01-01

A marine planetary boundary layer (PBL) model is presented and compared with data from sea-based experiments. The PBL model comprises two layers, the outer an Ekman-Taylor layer with stratification-dependent secondary flow, and the logarithmic surface layer corrected for stratification and humidity effects and variable surface roughness. Corrections are noted for air much warmer than water in stable conditions and for low wind speeds. The layers are analytically defined along with similarity relations and a resistance law for inclusion in a program. An additional interfacial layer correction is developed and shown to be significant for heat flux calculations. Experimental data from GOASEX were used to predict the windfield in the Gulf of Alaska, and JASIN data was used for windfields SE of Iceland. The JASIN-derived wind field predictions were accurate to within 1 m/sec and 10 deg in a 200 km triangle.

Software tool for portal dosimetry research.

PubMed

Vial, P; Hunt, P; Greer, P B; Oliver, L; Baldock, C

2008-09-01

This paper describes a software tool developed for research into the use of an electronic portal imaging device (EPID) to verify dose for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) beams. A portal dose image prediction (PDIP) model that predicts the EPID response to IMRT beams has been implemented into a commercially available treatment planning system (TPS). The software tool described in this work was developed to modify the TPS PDIP model by incorporating correction factors into the predicted EPID image to account for the difference in EPID response to open beam radiation and multileaf collimator (MLC) transmitted radiation. The processes performed by the software tool include; i) read the MLC file and the PDIP from the TPS, ii) calculate the fraction of beam-on time that each point in the IMRT beam is shielded by MLC leaves, iii) interpolate correction factors from look-up tables, iv) create a corrected PDIP image from the product of the original PDIP and the correction factors and write the corrected image to file, v) display, analyse, and export various image datasets. The software tool was developed using the Microsoft Visual Studio.NET framework with the C# compiler. The operation of the software tool was validated. This software provided useful tools for EPID dosimetry research, and it is being utilised and further developed in ongoing EPID dosimetry and IMRT dosimetry projects.

Priors Engaged in Long-Latency Responses to Mechanical Perturbations Suggest a Rapid Update in State Estimation

PubMed Central

Crevecoeur, Frédéric; Scott, Stephen H.

2013-01-01

In every motor task, our brain must handle external forces acting on the body. For example, riding a bike on cobblestones or skating on irregular surface requires us to appropriately respond to external perturbations. In these situations, motor predictions cannot help anticipate the motion of the body induced by external factors, and direct use of delayed sensory feedback will tend to generate instability. Here, we show that to solve this problem the motor system uses a rapid sensory prediction to correct the estimated state of the limb. We used a postural task with mechanical perturbations to address whether sensory predictions were engaged in upper-limb corrective movements. Subjects altered their initial motor response in ∼60 ms, depending on the expected perturbation profile, suggesting the use of an internal model, or prior, in this corrective process. Further, we found trial-to-trial changes in corrective responses indicating a rapid update of these perturbation priors. We used a computational model based on Kalman filtering to show that the response modulation was compatible with a rapid correction of the estimated state engaged in the feedback response. Such a process may allow us to handle external disturbances encountered in virtually every physical activity, which is likely an important feature of skilled motor behaviour. PMID:23966846

Experiences from the testing of a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Experience gained in testing a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift, and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

PubMed Central

Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most likely violated in many forests due to shared or distinct habitat preferences. Furthermore, our results highlight missing knowledge about the relationship between species abundances and their aggregation. PMID:27667967

Solar array model corrections from Mars Pathfinder lander data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ewell, R.C.; Burger, D.R.

1997-12-31

The MESUR solar array power model initially assumed values for input variables. After landing early surface variables such as array tilt and azimuth or early environmental variables such as array temperature can be corrected. Correction of later environmental variables such as tau versus time, spectral shift, dust deposition, and UV darkening is dependent upon time, on-board science instruments, and ability to separate effects of variables. Engineering estimates had to be made for additional shadow losses and Voc sensor temperature corrections. Some variations had not been expected such as tau versus time of day, and spectral shift versus time of day.more » Additions needed to the model are thermal mass of lander petal and correction between Voc sensor and temperature sensor. Conclusions are: the model works well; good battery predictions are difficult; inclusion of Isc and Voc sensors was valuable; and the IMP and MAE science experiments greatly assisted the data analysis and model correction.« less

Comparison of two free-energy expressions and their implications in surface enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerry, Rocco A.; Nauman, E. Bruce

1993-08-01

We compare two free-energy expressions, developed by Cohen and Muthukumar [J. Chem. Phys. 90, 5749 (1989)] and by Jerry and Nauman [J. Colloid Interface Sci. 154, 122 (1992)], in terms of their predictions concerning surface enrichment. We show that a term must be added to the former expression so that it may predict the correct dependence of the surface composition on the bulk. The latter expression does predict the correct dependence. We have also derived the quadratic surface-energy contribution from a finite (nonzero) range interaction model.

Effect of PVA fiber content on creep property of fiber reinforced high-strength concrete columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zongnan; Wang, Tao; Wang, Weilun

2018-04-01

The effect of PVA (polyvinyl alcohol) fiber content on the creep property of fiber reinforced high-strength concrete columns was investigated. The correction factor of PVA fiber content was proposed and the creep prediction model of ACI209 was modified. Controlling the concrete strength as C80, changing the content of PVA fiber (volume fraction 0%, 0.25%, 0.5%, 1% respectively), the creep experiment of PVA fiber reinforced concrete columns was carried out, the creep coefficient of each specimen was calculated to characterize the creep property. The influence of PVA fiber content on the creep property was analyzed based on the creep coefficient and the calculation results of several frequently used creep prediction models. The correction factor of PVA fiber content was proposed to modify the ACI209 creep prediction model.

Directivity in NGA earthquake ground motions: Analysis using isochrone theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, P.; Chiou, B.S.J.

2008-01-01

We present correction factors that may be applied to the ground motion prediction relations of Abrahamson and Silva, Boore and Atkinson, Campbell and Bozorgnia, and Chiou and Youngs (all in this volume) to model the azimuthally varying distribution of the GMRotI50 component of ground motion (commonly called 'directivity') around earthquakes. Our correction factors may be used for planar or nonplanar faults having any dip or slip rake (faulting mechanism). Our correction factors predict directivity-induced variations of spectral acceleration that are roughly half of the strike-slip variations predicted by Somerville et al. (1997), and use of our factors reduces record-to-record sigma by about 2-20% at 5 sec or greater period. ?? 2008, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Intelligent model-based OPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W. C.; Lai, C. M.; Luo, B.; Tsai, C. K.; Chih, M. H.; Lai, C. W.; Kuo, C. C.; Liu, R. G.; Lin, H. T.

2006-03-01

Optical proximity correction is the technique of pre-distorting mask layouts so that the printed patterns are as close to the desired shapes as possible. For model-based optical proximity correction, a lithographic model to predict the edge position (contour) of patterns on the wafer after lithographic processing is needed. Generally, segmentation of edges is performed prior to the correction. Pattern edges are dissected into several small segments with corresponding target points. During the correction, the edges are moved back and forth from the initial drawn position, assisted by the lithographic model, to finally settle on the proper positions. When the correction converges, the intensity predicted by the model in every target points hits the model-specific threshold value. Several iterations are required to achieve the convergence and the computation time increases with the increase of the required iterations. An artificial neural network is an information-processing paradigm inspired by biological nervous systems, such as how the brain processes information. It is composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurons) working in unison to solve specific problems. A neural network can be a powerful data-modeling tool that is able to capture and represent complex input/output relationships. The network can accurately predict the behavior of a system via the learning procedure. A radial basis function network, a variant of artificial neural network, is an efficient function approximator. In this paper, a radial basis function network was used to build a mapping from the segment characteristics to the edge shift from the drawn position. This network can provide a good initial guess for each segment that OPC has carried out. The good initial guess reduces the required iterations. Consequently, cycle time can be shortened effectively. The optimization of the radial basis function network for this system was practiced by genetic algorithm, which is an artificially intelligent optimization method with a high probability to obtain global optimization. From preliminary results, the required iterations were reduced from 5 to 2 for a simple dumbbell-shape layout.

Phase 2 development of Great Lakes algorithms for Nimbus-7 coastal zone color scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanis, Fred J.

1984-01-01

A series of experiments have been conducted in the Great Lakes designed to evaluate the application of the NIMBUS-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS). Atmospheric and water optical models were used to relate surface and subsurface measurements to satellite measured radiances. Absorption and scattering measurements were reduced to obtain a preliminary optical model for the Great Lakes. Algorithms were developed for geometric correction, correction for Rayleigh and aerosol path radiance, and prediction of chlorophyll-a pigment and suspended mineral concentrations. The atmospheric algorithm developed compared favorably with existing algorithms and was the only algorithm found to adequately predict the radiance variations in the 670 nm band. The atmospheric correction algorithm developed was designed to extract needed algorithm parameters from the CZCS radiance values. The Gordon/NOAA ocean algorithms could not be demonstrated to work for Great Lakes waters. Predicted values of chlorophyll-a concentration compared favorably with expected and measured data for several areas of the Great Lakes.

An integrated modeling approach to predict flooding on urban basin.

PubMed

Dey, Ashis Kumar; Kamioka, Seiji

2007-01-01

Correct prediction of flood extents in urban catchments has become a challenging issue. The traditional urban drainage models that consider only the sewerage-network are able to simulate the drainage system correctly until there is no overflow from the network inlet or manhole. When such overflows exist due to insufficient drainage capacity of downstream pipes or channels, it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extents using these traditional one-phase simulation techniques. On the other hand, the traditional 2D models that simulate the surface flooding resulting from rainfall and/or levee break do not consider the sewerage network. As a result, the correct flooding situation is rarely addressed from those available traditional 1D and 2D models. This paper presents an integrated model that simultaneously simulates the sewerage network, river network and 2D mesh network to get correct flood extents. The model has been successfully applied into the Tenpaku basin (Nagoya, Japan), which experienced severe flooding with a maximum flood depth more than 1.5 m on September 11, 2000 when heavy rainfall, 580 mm in 28 hrs (return period > 100 yr), occurred over the catchments. Close agreements between the simulated flood depths and observed data ensure that the present integrated modeling approach is able to reproduce the urban flooding situation accurately, which rarely can be obtained through the traditional 1D and 2D modeling approaches.

Predicting Correctness of Problem Solving from Low-Level Log Data in Intelligent Tutoring Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cetintas, Suleyman; Si, Luo; Xin, Yan Ping; Hord, Casey

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a learning based method that can automatically determine how likely a student is to give a correct answer to a problem in an intelligent tutoring system. Only log files that record students' actions with the system are used to train the model, therefore the modeling process doesn't require expert knowledge for identifying…

Comparative assessment of several post-processing methods for correcting evapotranspiration forecasts derived from TIGGE datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Medina, H.

2017-12-01

Post-processing of medium range reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has the potential of improving the quality and utility of these forecasts. This work compares the performance of several post-processing methods for correcting ETo forecasts over the continental U.S. generated from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database using data from Europe (EC), the United Kingdom (MO), and the United States (NCEP). The pondered post-processing techniques are: simple bias correction, the use of multimodels, the Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS, Gneitting et al., 2005) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, Raftery et al., 2005). ETo estimates based on quality-controlled U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network measurements, and computed with the FAO 56 Penman Monteith equation, are adopted as baseline. EMOS and BMA are generally the most efficient post-processing techniques of the ETo forecasts. Nevertheless, the simple bias correction of the best model is commonly much more rewarding than using multimodel raw forecasts. Our results demonstrate the potential of different forecasting and post-processing frameworks in operational evapotranspiration and irrigation advisory systems at national scale.

Modeling coherent errors in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenbaum, Daniel; Dutton, Zachary

2018-01-01

Analysis of quantum error correcting codes is typically done using a stochastic, Pauli channel error model for describing the noise on physical qubits. However, it was recently found that coherent errors (systematic rotations) on physical data qubits result in both physical and logical error rates that differ significantly from those predicted by a Pauli model. Here we examine the accuracy of the Pauli approximation for noise containing coherent errors (characterized by a rotation angle ɛ) under the repetition code. We derive an analytic expression for the logical error channel as a function of arbitrary code distance d and concatenation level n, in the small error limit. We find that coherent physical errors result in logical errors that are partially coherent and therefore non-Pauli. However, the coherent part of the logical error is negligible at fewer than {ε }-({dn-1)} error correction cycles when the decoder is optimized for independent Pauli errors, thus providing a regime of validity for the Pauli approximation. Above this number of correction cycles, the persistent coherent logical error will cause logical failure more quickly than the Pauli model would predict, and this may need to be combated with coherent suppression methods at the physical level or larger codes.

A view on thermodynamics of concentrated electrolytes: Modification necessity for electrostatic contribution of osmotic coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, Jyoti; Juvekar, Vinay A.

2018-05-01

Prediction of the osmotic coefficient of concentrated electrolytes is needed in a wide variety of industrial applications. There is a need to correctly segregate the electrostatic contribution to osmotic coefficient from nonelectrostatic contribution. This is achieved in a rational way in this work. Using the Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf hydrated ion model to predict non-electrostatic contribution to the osmotic coefficient, it is shown that hydration number should be independent of concentration so that the observed linear dependence of osmotic coefficient on electrolyte concentration in high concentration range could be predicted. The hydration number of several electrolytes (LiCl, NaCl, KCl, MgCl2, and MgSO4) has been estimated by this method. The hydration number predicted by this model shows correct dependence on temperature. It is also shown that the electrostatic contribution to osmotic coefficient is underpredicted by the Debye-Hückel theory at concentration beyond 0.1 m. The Debye-Hückel theory is modified by introducing a concentration dependent hydrated ionic size. Using the present analysis, it is possible to correctly estimate the electrostatic contribution to the osmotic coefficient, beyond the range of validation of the D-H theory. This would allow development of a more fundamental model for electrostatic interaction at high electrolyte concentrations.

Modeling aboveground biomass of Tamarix ramosissima in the Arkansas River Basin of Southeastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Crall, A.W.; Newman, G.J.

2007-01-01

Predictive models of aboveground biomass of nonnative Tamarix ramosissima of various sizes were developed using destructive sampling techniques on 50 individuals and four 100-m2 plots. Each sample was measured for average height (m) of stems and canopy area (m2) prior to cutting, drying, and weighing. Five competing regression models (P < 0.05) were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima using average height and/or canopy area measurements and were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Our best model (AICc = -148.69, ??AICc = 0) successfully predicted T. ramosissima aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97) and used average height and canopy area as predictors. Our 2nd-best model, using the same predictors, was also successful in predicting aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97, AICc = -131.71, ??AICc = 16.98). A 3rd model demonstrated high correlation between only aboveground biomass and canopy area (R2 = 0.95), while 2 additional models found high correlations between aboveground biomass and average height measurements only (R2 = 0.90 and 0.70, respectively). These models illustrate how simple field measurements, such as height and canopy area, can be used in allometric relationships to accurately predict aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima. Although a correction factor may be necessary for predictions at larger scales, the models presented will prove useful for many research and management initiatives.

The effect of capturing the correct turbulence dissipation rate in BHR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwarzkopf, John Dennis; Ristorcelli, Raymond

In this manuscript, we discuss the shortcoming of a quasi-equilibrium assumption made in the BHR closure model. Turbulence closure models generally assume fully developed turbulence, which is not applicable to 1) non-equilibrium turbulence (e.g. change in mean pressure gradient) or 2) laminar-turbulence transition flows. Based on DNS data, we show that the current BHR dissipation equation [modeled based on the fully developed turbulence phenomenology] does not capture important features of nonequilibrium flows. To demonstrate our thesis, we use the BHR equations to predict a non-equilibrium flow both with the BHR dissipation and the dissipation from DNS. We find that themore » prediction can be substantially improved, both qualitatively and quantitatively, with the correct dissipation rate. We conclude that a new set of nonequilibrium phenomenological assumptions must be used to develop a new model equation for the dissipation to accurately predict the turbulence time scale used by other models.« less

Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one "virtual" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

PubMed Central

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O.; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases. PMID:24818607

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daily, Michael D.; Olsen, Brett N.; Schlesinger, Paul H.

In mammalian cells cholesterol is essential for membrane function, but in excess can be cytototoxic. The cellular response to acute cholesterol loading involves biophysical-based mechanisms that regulate cholesterol levels, through modulation of the “activity” or accessibility of cholesterol to extra-membrane acceptors. Experiments and united atom (UA) simulations show that at high concentrations of cholesterol, lipid bilayers thin significantly and cholesterol availability to external acceptors increases substantially. Such cholesterol activation is critical to its trafficking within cells. Here we aim to reduce the computational cost to enable simulation of large and complex systems involved in cholesterol regulation, such as those includingmore » oxysterols and cholesterol-sensing proteins. To accomplish this, we have modified the published MARTINI coarse-grained force field to improve its predictions of cholesterol-induced changes in both macroscopic and microscopic properties of membranes. Most notably, MARTINI fails to capture both the (macroscopic) area condensation and membrane thickening seen at less than 30% cholesterol and the thinning seen above 40% cholesterol. The thinning at high concentration is critical to cholesterol activation. Microscopic properties of interest include cholesterol-cholesterol radial distribution functions (RDFs), tilt angle, and accessible surface area. First, we develop an “angle-corrected” model wherein we modify the coarse-grained bond angle potentials based on atomistic simulations. This modification significantly improves prediction of macroscopic properties, most notably the thickening/thinning behavior, and also slightly improves microscopic property prediction relative to MARTINI. Second, we add to the angle correction a “volume correction” by also adjusting phospholipid bond lengths to achieve a more accurate volume per molecule. The angle + volume correction substantially further improves the quantitative agreement of the macroscopic properties (area per molecule and thickness) with united atom simulations. However, this improvement also reduces the accuracy of microscopic predictions like radial distribution functions and cholesterol tilt below that of either MARTINI or the angle-corrected model. Thus, while both of our forcefield corrections improve MARTINI, the combined angle and volume correction should be used for problems involving sterol effects on the overall structure of the membrane, while our angle-corrected model should be used in cases where the properties of individual lipid and sterol models are critically important.« less

Similarities in error processing establish a link between saccade prediction at baseline and adaptation performance.

PubMed

Wong, Aaron L; Shelhamer, Mark

2014-05-01

Adaptive processes are crucial in maintaining the accuracy of body movements and rely on error storage and processing mechanisms. Although classically studied with adaptation paradigms, evidence of these ongoing error-correction mechanisms should also be detectable in other movements. Despite this connection, current adaptation models are challenged when forecasting adaptation ability with measures of baseline behavior. On the other hand, we have previously identified an error-correction process present in a particular form of baseline behavior, the generation of predictive saccades. This process exhibits long-term intertrial correlations that decay gradually (as a power law) and are best characterized with the tools of fractal time series analysis. Since this baseline task and adaptation both involve error storage and processing, we sought to find a link between the intertrial correlations of the error-correction process in predictive saccades and the ability of subjects to alter their saccade amplitudes during an adaptation task. Here we find just such a relationship: the stronger the intertrial correlations during prediction, the more rapid the acquisition of adaptation. This reinforces the links found previously between prediction and adaptation in motor control and suggests that current adaptation models are inadequate to capture the complete dynamics of these error-correction processes. A better understanding of the similarities in error processing between prediction and adaptation might provide the means to forecast adaptation ability with a baseline task. This would have many potential uses in physical therapy and the general design of paradigms of motor adaptation. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Minimum Energy Routing through Interactive Techniques (MERIT) modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wylie, Donald P.

1988-01-01

The MERIT program is designed to demonstrate the feasibility of fuel savings by airlines through improved route selection using wind observations from their own fleet. After a discussion of weather and aircraft data, manually correcting wind fields, automatic corrections to wind fields, and short-range prediction models, it is concluded that improvements in wind information are possible if a system is developed for analyzing wind observations and correcting the forecasts made by the major models. One data handling system, McIDAS, can easily collect and display wind observations and model forecasts. Changing the wind forecasts beyond the time of the most recent observations is more difficult; an Australian Mesoscale Model was tested with promising but not definitive results.

Measurement Error Correction for Predicted Spatiotemporal Air Pollution Exposures.

PubMed

Keller, Joshua P; Chang, Howard H; Strickland, Matthew J; Szpiro, Adam A

2017-05-01

Air pollution cohort studies are frequently analyzed in two stages, first modeling exposure then using predicted exposures to estimate health effects in a second regression model. The difference between predicted and unobserved true exposures introduces a form of measurement error in the second stage health model. Recent methods for spatial data correct for measurement error with a bootstrap and by requiring the study design ensure spatial compatibility, that is, monitor and subject locations are drawn from the same spatial distribution. These methods have not previously been applied to spatiotemporal exposure data. We analyzed the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and birth weight in the US state of Georgia using records with estimated date of conception during 2002-2005 (n = 403,881). We predicted trimester-specific PM2.5 exposure using a complex spatiotemporal exposure model. To improve spatial compatibility, we restricted to mothers residing in counties with a PM2.5 monitor (n = 180,440). We accounted for additional measurement error via a nonparametric bootstrap. Third trimester PM2.5 exposure was associated with lower birth weight in the uncorrected (-2.4 g per 1 μg/m difference in exposure; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.9, -0.8) and bootstrap-corrected (-2.5 g, 95% CI: -4.2, -0.8) analyses. Results for the unrestricted analysis were attenuated (-0.66 g, 95% CI: -1.7, 0.35). This study presents a novel application of measurement error correction for spatiotemporal air pollution exposures. Our results demonstrate the importance of spatial compatibility between monitor and subject locations and provide evidence of the association between air pollution exposure and birth weight.

Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

2017-02-01

UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

Prediction of biodegradability from chemical structure: Modeling or ready biodegradation test data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loonen, H.; Lindgren, F.; Hansen, B.

1999-08-01

Biodegradation data were collected and evaluated for 894 substances with widely varying chemical structures. All data were determined according to the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) I test protocol. The MITI I test is a screening test for ready biodegradability and has been described by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) test guideline 301 C and European Union (EU) test guideline C4F. The chemicals were characterized by a set of 127 predefined structural fragments. This data set was used to develop a model for the prediction of the biodegradability of chemicals under standardized OECD and EUmore » ready biodegradation test conditions. Partial least squares (PLS) discriminant analysis was used for the model development. The model was evaluated by means of internal cross-validation and repeated external validation. The importance of various structural fragments and fragment interactions was investigated. The most important fragments include the presence of a long alkyl chain; hydroxy, ester, and acid groups (enhancing biodegradation); and the presence of one or more aromatic rings and halogen substituents (regarding biodegradation). More than 85% of the model predictions were correct for using the complete data set. The not readily biodegradable predictions were slightly better than the readily biodegradable predictions (86 vs 84%). The average percentage of correct predictions from four external validation studies was 83%. Model optimization by including fragment interactions improve the model predicting capabilities to 89%. It can be concluded that the PLS model provides predictions of high reliability for a diverse range of chemical structures. The predictions conform to the concept of readily biodegradable (or not readily biodegradable) as defined by OECD and EU test guidelines.« less

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the central Florida. The hydrologic response of two southwest Florida watersheds to the gridded observation data, the original bias corrected CMIP3 data, and the new spatiotemporally corrected CMIP3 predictions was compared using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model developed by Tampa Bay Water.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

Model-Based Control of Observer Bias for the Analysis of Presence-Only Data in Ecology

PubMed Central

Warton, David I.; Renner, Ian W.; Ramp, Daniel

2013-01-01

Presence-only data, where information is available concerning species presence but not species absence, are subject to bias due to observers being more likely to visit and record sightings at some locations than others (hereafter “observer bias”). In this paper, we describe and evaluate a model-based approach to accounting for observer bias directly – by modelling presence locations as a function of known observer bias variables (such as accessibility variables) in addition to environmental variables, then conditioning on a common level of bias to make predictions of species occurrence free of such observer bias. We implement this idea using point process models with a LASSO penalty, a new presence-only method related to maximum entropy modelling, that implicitly addresses the “pseudo-absence problem” of where to locate pseudo-absences (and how many). The proposed method of bias-correction is evaluated using systematically collected presence/absence data for 62 plant species endemic to the Blue Mountains near Sydney, Australia. It is shown that modelling and controlling for observer bias significantly improves the accuracy of predictions made using presence-only data, and usually improves predictions as compared to pseudo-absence or “inventory” methods of bias correction based on absences from non-target species. Future research will consider the potential for improving the proposed bias-correction approach by estimating the observer bias simultaneously across multiple species. PMID:24260167

Wafer hotspot prevention using etch aware OPC correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamouda, Ayman; Power, Dave; Salama, Mohamed; Chen, Ao

2016-03-01

As technology development advances into deep-sub-wavelength nodes, multiple patterning is becoming more essential to achieve the technology shrink requirements. Recently, Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) technology has proposed simultaneous correction of multiple mask-patterns to enable multiple patterning awareness during OPC correction. This is essential to prevent inter-layer hot-spots during the final pattern transfer. In state-of-art literature, multi-layer awareness is achieved using simultaneous resist-contour simulations to predict and correct for hot-spots during mask generation. However, this approach assumes a uniform etch shrink response for all patterns independent of their proximity, which isn't sufficient for the full prevention of inter-exposure hot-spot, for example different color space violations post etch or via coverage/enclosure post etch. In this paper, we explain the need to include the etch component during multiple patterning OPC. We also introduce a novel approach for Etch-aware simultaneous Multiple-patterning OPC, where we calibrate and verify a lumped model that includes the combined resist and etch responses. Adding this extra simulation condition during OPC is suitable for full chip processing from a computation intensity point of view. Also, using this model during OPC to predict and correct inter-exposures hot-spots is similar to previously proposed multiple-patterning OPC, yet our proposed approach more accurately corrects post-etch defects too.

Performance of combined fragmentation and retention prediction for the identification of organic micropollutants by LC-HRMS.

PubMed

Hu, Meng; Müller, Erik; Schymanski, Emma L; Ruttkies, Christoph; Schulze, Tobias; Brack, Werner; Krauss, Martin

2018-03-01

In nontarget screening, structure elucidation of small molecules from high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) data is challenging, particularly the selection of the most likely candidate structure among the many retrieved from compound databases. Several fragmentation and retention prediction methods have been developed to improve this candidate selection. In order to evaluate their performance, we compared two in silico fragmenters (MetFrag and CFM-ID) and two retention time prediction models (based on the chromatographic hydrophobicity index (CHI) and on log D). A set of 78 known organic micropollutants was analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to a LTQ Orbitrap HRMS with electrospray ionization (ESI) in positive and negative mode using two fragmentation techniques with different collision energies. Both fragmenters (MetFrag and CFM-ID) performed well for most compounds, with average ranking the correct candidate structure within the top 25% and 22 to 37% for ESI+ and ESI- mode, respectively. The rank of the correct candidate structure slightly improved when MetFrag and CFM-ID were combined. For unknown compounds detected in both ESI+ and ESI-, generally positive mode mass spectra were better for further structure elucidation. Both retention prediction models performed reasonably well for more hydrophobic compounds but not for early eluting hydrophilic substances. The log D prediction showed a better accuracy than the CHI model. Although the two fragmentation prediction methods are more diagnostic and sensitive for candidate selection, the inclusion of retention prediction by calculating a consensus score with optimized weighting can improve the ranking of correct candidates as compared to the individual methods. Graphical abstract Consensus workflow for combining fragmentation and retention prediction in LC-HRMS-based micropollutant identification.

Assessment and Mapping of Forest Parcel Sizes

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler; Susan L. King

2005-01-01

A method for analyzing and mapping forest parcel sizes in the Northeastern United States is presented. A decision tree model was created that predicts forest parcel size from spatially explicit predictor variables: population density, State, percentage forest land cover, and road density. The model correctly predicted parcel size for 60 percent of the observations in a...

A Market-Basket Approach to Predict the Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Munitions and Energetic Materials.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D

2016-06-01

An ongoing challenge in chemical production, including the production of insensitive munitions and energetics, is the ability to make predictions about potential environmental hazards early in the process. To address this challenge, a quantitative structure activity relationship model was developed to predict acute fathead minnow toxicity of insensitive munitions and energetic materials. Computational predictive toxicology models like this one may be used to identify and prioritize environmentally safer materials early in their development. The developed model is based on the Apriori market-basket/frequent itemset mining approach to identify probabilistic prediction rules using chemical atom-pairs and the lethality data for 57 compounds from a fathead minnow acute toxicity assay. Lethality data were discretized into four categories based on the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals. Apriori identified toxicophores for categories two and three. The model classified 32 of the 57 compounds correctly, with a fivefold cross-validation classification rate of 74 %. A structure-based surrogate approach classified the remaining 25 chemicals correctly at 48 %. This result is unsurprising as these 25 chemicals were fairly unique within the larger set.

Meat mixture detection in Iberian pork sausages.

PubMed

Ortiz-Somovilla, V; España-España, F; De Pedro-Sanz, E J; Gaitán-Jurado, A J

2005-11-01

Five homogenized meat mixture treatments of Iberian (I) and/or Standard (S) pork were set up. Each treatment was analyzed by NIRS as a fresh product (N=75) and as dry-cured sausage (N=75). Spectra acquisition was carried out using DA 7000 equipment (Perten Instruments), obtaining a total of 750 spectra. Several absorption peaks and bands were selected as the most representative for homogenized dry-cured and fresh sausages. Discriminant analysis and mixture prediction equations were carried out based on the spectral data gathered. The best results using discriminant models were for fresh products, with 98.3% (calibration) and 60% (validation) correct classification. For dry-cured sausages 91.7% (calibration) and 80% (validation) of the samples were correctly classified. Models developed using mixture prediction equations showed SECV=4.7, r(2)=0.98 (calibration) and 73.3% of validation set were correctly classified for the fresh product. These values for dry-cured sausages were SECV=5.9, r(2)=0.99 (calibration) and 93.3% correctly classified for validation.

The usefulness of "corrected" body mass index vs. self-reported body mass index: comparing the population distributions, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive utility of three correction equations using Canadian population-based data.

PubMed

Dutton, Daniel J; McLaren, Lindsay

2014-05-06

National data on body mass index (BMI), computed from self-reported height and weight, is readily available for many populations including the Canadian population. Because self-reported weight is found to be systematically under-reported, it has been proposed that the bias in self-reported BMI can be corrected using equations derived from data sets which include both self-reported and measured height and weight. Such correction equations have been developed and adopted. We aim to evaluate the usefulness (i.e., distributional similarity; sensitivity and specificity; and predictive utility vis-à-vis disease outcomes) of existing and new correction equations in population-based research. The Canadian Community Health Surveys from 2005 and 2008 include both measured and self-reported values of height and weight, which allows for construction and evaluation of correction equations. We focused on adults age 18-65, and compared three correction equations (two correcting weight only, and one correcting BMI) against self-reported and measured BMI. We first compared population distributions of BMI. Second, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported BMI and corrected BMI against measured BMI. Third, we compared the self-reported and corrected BMI in terms of association with health outcomes using logistic regression. All corrections outperformed self-report when estimating the full BMI distribution; the weight-only correction outperformed the BMI-only correction for females in the 23-28 kg/m2 BMI range. In terms of sensitivity/specificity, when estimating obesity prevalence, corrected values of BMI (from any equation) were superior to self-report. In terms of modelling BMI-disease outcome associations, findings were mixed, with no correction proving consistently superior to self-report. If researchers are interested in modelling the full population distribution of BMI, or estimating the prevalence of obesity in a population, then a correction of any kind included in this study is recommended. If the researcher is interested in using BMI as a predictor variable for modelling disease, then both self-reported and corrected BMI result in biased estimates of association.

Clinical pharmacology of analgesics assessed with human experimental pain models: bridging basic and clinical research

PubMed Central

Oertel, Bruno Georg; Lötsch, Jörn

2013-01-01

The medical impact of pain is such that much effort is being applied to develop novel analgesic drugs directed towards new targets and to investigate the analgesic efficacy of known drugs. Ongoing research requires cost-saving tools to translate basic science knowledge into clinically effective analgesic compounds. In this review we have re-examined the prediction of clinical analgesia by human experimental pain models as a basis for model selection in phase I studies. The overall prediction of analgesic efficacy or failure of a drug correlated well between experimental and clinical settings. However, correct model selection requires more detailed information about which model predicts a particular clinical pain condition. We hypothesized that if an analgesic drug was effective in an experimental pain model and also a specific clinical pain condition, then that model might be predictive for that particular condition and should be selected for development as an analgesic for that condition. The validity of the prediction increases with an increase in the numbers of analgesic drug classes for which this agreement was shown. From available evidence, only five clinical pain conditions were correctly predicted by seven different pain models for at least three different drugs. Most of these models combine a sensitization method. The analysis also identified several models with low impact with respect to their clinical translation. Thus, the presently identified agreements and non-agreements between analgesic effects on experimental and on clinical pain may serve as a solid basis to identify complex sets of human pain models that bridge basic science with clinical pain research. PMID:23082949

Increased genomic prediction accuracy in wheat breeding through spatial adjustment of field trial data.

PubMed

Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

2013-12-09

In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models.

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

A consistent transported PDF model for treating differential molecular diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haifeng; Zhang, Pei

2016-11-01

Differential molecular diffusion is a fundamentally significant phenomenon in all multi-component turbulent reacting or non-reacting flows caused by the different rates of molecular diffusion of energy and species concentrations. In the transported probability density function (PDF) method, the differential molecular diffusion can be treated by using a mean drift model developed by McDermott and Pope. This model correctly accounts for the differential molecular diffusion in the scalar mean transport and yields a correct DNS limit of the scalar variance production. The model, however, misses the molecular diffusion term in the scalar variance transport equation, which yields an inconsistent prediction of the scalar variance in the transported PDF method. In this work, a new model is introduced to remedy this problem that can yield a consistent scalar variance prediction. The model formulation along with its numerical implementation is discussed, and the model validation is conducted in a turbulent mixing layer problem.

Characterizing and Modeling the Cost of Rework in a Library of Reusable Software Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Condon, Steven E.; ElEmam, Khaled; Hendrick, Robert B.; Melo, Walcelio

1997-01-01

In this paper we characterize and model the cost of rework in a Component Factory (CF) organization. A CF is responsible for developing and packaging reusable software components. Data was collected on corrective maintenance activities for the Generalized Support Software reuse asset library located at the Flight Dynamics Division of NASA's GSFC. We then constructed a predictive model of the cost of rework using the C4.5 system for generating a logical classification model. The predictor variables for the model are measures of internal software product attributes. The model demonstrates good prediction accuracy, and can be used by managers to allocate resources for corrective maintenance activities. Furthermore, we used the model to generate proscriptive coding guidelines to improve programming, practices so that the cost of rework can be reduced in the future. The general approach we have used is applicable to other environments.

Voidage correction algorithm for unresolved Euler-Lagrange simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askarishahi, Maryam; Salehi, Mohammad-Sadegh; Radl, Stefan

2018-04-01

The effect of grid coarsening on the predicted total drag force and heat exchange rate in dense gas-particle flows is investigated using Euler-Lagrange (EL) approach. We demonstrate that grid coarsening may reduce the predicted total drag force and exchange rate. Surprisingly, exchange coefficients predicted by the EL approach deviate more significantly from the exact value compared to results of Euler-Euler (EE)-based calculations. The voidage gradient is identified as the root cause of this peculiar behavior. Consequently, we propose a correction algorithm based on a sigmoidal function to predict the voidage experienced by individual particles. Our correction algorithm can significantly improve the prediction of exchange coefficients in EL models, which is tested for simulations involving Euler grid cell sizes between 2d_p and 12d_p . It is most relevant in simulations of dense polydisperse particle suspensions featuring steep voidage profiles. For these suspensions, classical approaches may result in an error of the total exchange rate of up to 30%.

The estimation of rice paddy yield with GRAMI crop model and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) image over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeom, J. M.; Kim, H. O.

2014-12-01

In this study, we estimated the rice paddy yield with moderate geostationary satellite based vegetation products and GRAMI model over South Korea. Rice is the most popular staple food for Asian people. In addition, the effects of climate change are getting stronger especially in Asian region, where the most of rice are cultivated. Therefore, accurate and timely prediction of rice yield is one of the most important to accomplish food security and to prepare natural disasters such as crop defoliation, drought, and pest infestation. In the present study, GOCI, which is world first Geostationary Ocean Color Image, was used for estimating temporal vegetation indices of the rice paddy by adopting atmospheric correction BRDF modeling. For the atmospheric correction with LUT method based on Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S), MODIS atmospheric products such as MOD04, MOD05, MOD07 from NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) were used. In order to correct the surface anisotropy effect, Ross-Thick Li-Sparse Reciprocal (RTLSR) BRDF model was performed at daily basis with 16day composite period. The estimated multi-temporal vegetation images was used for crop classification by using high resolution satellite images such as Rapideye, KOMPSAT-2 and KOMPSAT-3 to extract the proportional rice paddy area in corresponding a pixel of GOCI. In the case of GRAMI crop model, initial conditions are determined by performing every 2 weeks field works at Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea. The corrected GOCI vegetation products were incorporated with GRAMI model to predict rice yield estimation. The predicted rice yield was compared with field measurement of rice yield.

[The third dimension tomography versus cranial X-ray cephalometry to predict maxilla advance by distraction in hypoplastic maxilla].

PubMed

Rosas-Muñoz, Arturo; Soriano-Padilla, Fernando; Rendón-Macías, Mario Enrique

2010-01-01

the osteogenic distraction is the treatment for the correction of the hypoplastic maxilla secondary to the repair of a cleft lip-palate. Its planning is based on articulated models. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of three-dimensional Cephalometry (CT3D) for projecting jaw displacement. three patients with hypoplastic maxilla. Interventions estimation of the advance required of lateral maxilla through Cephalometry of skull (CLC), CT3D and an articulated model (gold standard). Two months after distraction finalized the advance predicted was compared. the error of the advance projection in each patient was smaller with the CT3D versus CLC (+1, +1 and +1 mm versus -10, -14 and -9mm). Corrections post-distraction were of +25 %, +26 % and +38.4 % on the programmed one. CT3D predicted better the correction (+19 %, +10.8 %, +33.4 % versus CLC: -50 %; -60.8 % and -34.6 %). Chewing alterations were not seen in any patient. the planning of the necessary advance for distraction in patients with hypoplastic maxilla by CT3D can shorten the time of studies and should be consider as next to the projection of articulated model.

Compressibility Considerations for kappa-omega Turbulence Models in Hypersonic Boundary Layer Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, C. L.

2009-01-01

The ability of kappa-omega models to predict compressible turbulent skin friction in hypersonic boundary layers is investigated. Although uncorrected two-equation models can agree well with correlations for hot-wall cases, they tend to perform progressively worse - particularly for cold walls - as the Mach number is increased in the hypersonic regime. Simple algebraic models such as Baldwin-Lomax perform better compared to experiments and correlations in these circumstances. Many of the compressibility corrections described in the literature are summarized here. These include corrections that have only a small influence for kappa-omega models, or that apply only in specific circumstances. The most widely-used general corrections were designed for use with jet or mixing-layer free shear flows. A less well-known dilatation-dissipation correction intended for boundary layer flows is also tested, and is shown to agree reasonably well with the Baldwin-Lomax model at cold-wall conditions. It exhibits a less dramatic influence than the free shear type of correction. There is clearly a need for improved understanding and better overall physical modeling for turbulence models applied to hypersonic boundary layer flows.

The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, A.J.; Battles, J.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2007-01-01

We examined mortality of Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) and Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine) by developing logistic models using three growth indices obtained from tree rings: average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt growth declines. For P. lambertiana, models with average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt declines improved overall prediction (78.6% dead trees correctly classified, 83.7% live trees correctly classified) compared with a model with average recent growth alone (69.6% dead trees correctly classified, 67.3% live trees correctly classified). For A. concolor, counts of abrupt declines and longer time intervals improved overall classification (trees with DBH ???20 cm: 78.9% dead trees correctly classified and 76.7% live trees correctly classified vs. 64.9% dead trees correctly classified and 77.9% live trees correctly classified; trees with DBH <20 cm: 71.6% dead trees correctly classified and 71.0% live trees correctly classified vs. 67.2% dead trees correctly classified and 66.7% live trees correctly classified). In general, count of abrupt declines improved live-tree classification. External validation of A. concolor models showed that they functioned well at stands not used in model development, and the development of size-specific models demonstrated important differences in mortality risk between understory and canopy trees. Population-level mortality-risk models were developed for A. concolor and generated realistic mortality rates at two sites. Our results support the contention that a more comprehensive use of the growth record yields a more robust assessment of mortality risk. ?? 2007 NRC.

Comparisons of Predictions of the XB-70-1 Longitudinal Stability and Control Derivatives with Flight Results for Six Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolowicz, C. H.; Yancey, R. B.

1973-01-01

Preliminary correlations of flight-determined and predicted stability and control characteristics of the XB-70-1 reported in NASA TN D-4578 were subject to uncertainties in several areas which necessitated a review of prediction techniques particularly for the longitudinal characteristics. Reevaluation and updating of the original predictions, including aeroelastic corrections, for six specific flight-test conditions resulted in improved correlations of static pitch stability with flight data. The original predictions for the pitch-damping derivative, on the other hand, showed better correlation with flight data than the updated predictions. It appears that additional study is required in the application of aeroelastic corrections to rigid model wind-tunnel data and the theoretical determination of dynamic derivatives for this class of aircraft.

Renormalization group independence of Cosmological Attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fumagalli, Jacopo

2017-06-01

The large class of inflationary models known as α- and ξ-attractors gives identical cosmological predictions at tree level (at leading order in inverse power of the number of efolds). Working with the renormalization group improved action, we show that these predictions are robust under quantum corrections. This means that for all the models considered the inflationary parameters (ns , r) are (nearly) independent on the Renormalization Group flow. The result follows once the field dependence of the renormalization scale, fixed by demanding the leading log correction to vanish, satisfies a quite generic condition. In Higgs inflation (which is a particular ξ-attractor) this is indeed the case; in the more general attractor models this is still ensured by the renormalizability of the theory in the effective field theory sense.

New model for burnout prediction in channels of various cross-section

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bobkov, V.P.; Kozina, N.V.; Vinogrado, V.N.

1995-09-01

The model developed to predict a critical heat flux (CHF) in various channels is presented together with the results of data analysis. A model is the realization of relative method of CHF describing based on the data for round tube and on the system of correction factors. The results of data description presented here are for rectangular and triangular channels, annuli and rod bundles.

Empirical source strength correlations for rans-based acoustic analogy methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kube-McDowell, Matthew Tyndall

JeNo is a jet noise prediction code based on an acoustic analogy method developed by Mani, Gliebe, Balsa, and Khavaran. Using the flow predictions from a standard Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics solver, JeNo predicts the overall sound pressure level and angular spectra for high-speed hot jets over a range of observer angles, with a processing time suitable for rapid design purposes. JeNo models the noise from hot jets as a combination of two types of noise sources; quadrupole sources dependent on velocity fluctuations, which represent the major noise of turbulent mixing, and dipole sources dependent on enthalpy fluctuations, which represent the effects of thermal variation. These two sources are modeled by JeNo as propagating independently into the far-field, with no cross-correlation at the observer location. However, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics solutions demonstrate that this assumption is false. In this thesis, the theory, assumptions, and limitations of the JeNo code are briefly discussed, and a modification to the acoustic analogy method is proposed in which the cross-correlation of the two primary noise sources is allowed to vary with the speed of the jet and the observer location. As a proof-of-concept implementation, an empirical correlation correction function is derived from comparisons between JeNo's noise predictions and a set of experimental measurements taken for the Air Force Aero-Propulsion Laboratory. The empirical correlation correction is then applied to JeNo's predictions of a separate data set of hot jets tested at NASA's Glenn Research Center. Metrics are derived to measure the qualitative and quantitative performance of JeNo's acoustic predictions, and the empirical correction is shown to provide a quantitative improvement in the noise prediction at low observer angles with no freestream flow, and a qualitative improvement in the presence of freestream flow. However, the results also demonstrate that there are underlying flaws in JeNo's ability to predict the behavior of a hot jet's acoustic signature at certain rear observer angles, and that this correlation correction is not able to correct these flaws.

SU-F-R-04: Radiomics for Survival Prediction in Glioblastoma (GBM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, H; Molitoris, J; Bhooshan, N

Purpose: To develop a quantitative radiomics approach for survival prediction of glioblastoma (GBM) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: 28 GBM patients who received CRT at our institution were retrospectively studied. 255 radiomic features were extracted from 3 gadolinium-enhanced T1 weighted MRIs for 2 regions of interest (ROIs) (the surgical cavity and its surrounding enhancement rim). The 3 MRIs were at pre-treatment, 1-month and 3-month post-CRT. The imaging features comprehensively quantified the intensity, spatial variation (texture), geometric property and their spatial-temporal changes for the 2 ROIs. 3 demographics features (age, race, gender) and 12 clinical parameters (KPS, extent of resection,more » whether concurrent temozolomide was adjusted/stopped and radiotherapy related information) were also included. 4 Machine learning models (logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), neural network (NN)) were applied to predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The number of cases and percentage of cases predicted correctly were collected and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) were determined after leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: From univariate analysis, 27 features (1 demographic, 1 clinical and 25 imaging) were statistically significant (p<0.05) for both OS and PFS. Two sets of features (each contained 24 features) were algorithmically selected from all features to predict OS and PFS. High prediction accuracy of OS was achieved by using NN (96%, 27 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.99), LR (93%, 26 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.95) and SVM (93%, 26 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.90). When predicting PFS, NN obtained the highest prediction accuracy (89%, 25 of 28 cases were correctly predicted, AUC = 0.92). Conclusion: Radiomics approach combined with patients’ demographics and clinical parameters can accurately predict survival in GBM patients treated with CRT.« less

Reverberant acoustic energy in auditoria that comprise systems of coupled rooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Jason Erik

A frequency-dependent model for levels and decay rates of reverberant energy in systems of coupled rooms is developed and compared with measurements conducted in a 1:10 scale model and in Bass Hall, Fort Worth, TX. Schroeder frequencies of subrooms, fSch, characteristic size of coupling apertures, a, relative to wavelength lambda, and characteristic size of room surfaces, l, relative to lambda define the frequency regions. At high frequencies [HF (f >> f Sch, a >> lambda, l >> lambda)], this work improves upon prior statistical-acoustics (SA) coupled-ODE models by incorporating geometrical-acoustics (GA) corrections for the model of decay within subrooms and the model of energy transfer between subrooms. Previous researchers developed prediction algorithms based on computational GA. Comparisons of predictions derived from beam-axis tracing with scale-model measurements indicate that systematic errors for coupled rooms result from earlier tail-correction procedures that assume constant quadratic growth of reflection density. A new algorithm is developed that uses ray tracing rather than tail correction in the late part and is shown to correct this error. At midfrequencies [MF (f >> f Sch, a ˜ lambda)], HF models are modified to account for wave effects at coupling apertures by including analytically or heuristically derived power transmission coefficients tau. This work improves upon prior SA models of this type by developing more accurate estimates of random-incidence tau. While the accuracy of the MF models is difficult to verify, scale-model measurements evidence the expected behavior. The Biot-Tolstoy-Medwin-Svensson (BTMS) time-domain edge-diffraction model is newly adapted to study transmission through apertures. Multiple-order BTMS scattering is theoretically and experimentally shown to be inaccurate due to the neglect of slope diffraction. At low frequencies (f ˜ f Sch), scale-model measurements have been qualitatively explained by application of previously developed perturbation models. Measurements newly confirm that coupling strength between three-dimensional rooms is related to unperturbed pressure distribution on the coupling surface. In Bass Hall, measurements are conducted to determine the acoustical effects of the coupled stage house on stage and in the audience area. The high-frequency predictions of statistical- and geometrical-acoustics models agree well with measured results. Predictions of the transmission coefficients of the coupling apertures agree, at least qualitatively, with the observed behavior.

Modelling Thin Film Microbending: A Comparative Study of Three Different Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aifantis, Katerina E.; Nikitas, Nikos; Zaiser, Michael

2011-09-01

Constitutive models which describe crystal microplasticity in a continuum framework can be envisaged as average representations of the dynamics of dislocation systems. Thus, their performance needs to be assessed not only by their ability to correctly represent stress-strain characteristics on the specimen scale but also by their ability to correctly represent the evolution of internal stress and strain patterns. In the present comparative study we consider the bending of a free-standing thin film. We compare the results of 3D DDD simulations with those obtained from a simple 1D gradient plasticity model and a more complex dislocation-based continuum model. Both models correctly reproduce the nontrivial strain patterns predicted by DDD for the microbending problem.

Plateletpheresis efficiency and mathematical correction of software-derived platelet yield prediction: A linear regression and ROC modeling approach.

PubMed

Jaime-Pérez, José Carlos; Jiménez-Castillo, Raúl Alberto; Vázquez-Hernández, Karina Elizabeth; Salazar-Riojas, Rosario; Méndez-Ramírez, Nereida; Gómez-Almaguer, David

2017-10-01

Advances in automated cell separators have improved the efficiency of plateletpheresis and the possibility of obtaining double products (DP). We assessed cell processor accuracy of predicted platelet (PLT) yields with the goal of a better prediction of DP collections. This retrospective proof-of-concept study included 302 plateletpheresis procedures performed on a Trima Accel v6.0 at the apheresis unit of a hematology department. Donor variables, software predicted yield and actual PLT yield were statistically evaluated. Software prediction was optimized by linear regression analysis and its optimal cut-off to obtain a DP assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) modeling. Three hundred and two plateletpheresis procedures were performed; in 271 (89.7%) occasions, donors were men and in 31 (10.3%) women. Pre-donation PLT count had the best direct correlation with actual PLT yield (r = 0.486. P < .001). Means of software machine-derived values differed significantly from actual PLT yield, 4.72 × 10 11 vs.6.12 × 10 11 , respectively, (P < .001). The following equation was developed to adjust these values: actual PLT yield= 0.221 + (1.254 × theoretical platelet yield). ROC curve model showed an optimal apheresis device software prediction cut-off of 4.65 × 10 11 to obtain a DP, with a sensitivity of 82.2%, specificity of 93.3%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.909. Trima Accel v6.0 software consistently underestimated PLT yields. Simple correction derived from linear regression analysis accurately corrected this underestimation and ROC analysis identified a precise cut-off to reliably predict a DP. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Evaluation of 3D-Jury on CASP7 models.

PubMed

Kaján, László; Rychlewski, Leszek

2007-08-21

3D-Jury, the structure prediction consensus method publicly available in the Meta Server http://meta.bioinfo.pl/, was evaluated using models gathered in the 7th round of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP7). 3D-Jury is an automated expert process that generates protein structure meta-predictions from sets of models obtained from partner servers. The performance of 3D-Jury was analysed for three aspects. First, we examined the correlation between the 3D-Jury score and a model quality measure: the number of correctly predicted residues. The 3D-Jury score was shown to correlate significantly with the number of correctly predicted residues, the correlation is good enough to be used for prediction. 3D-Jury was also found to improve upon the competing servers' choice of the best structure model in most cases. The value of the 3D-Jury score as a generic reliability measure was also examined. We found that the 3D-Jury score separates bad models from good models better than the reliability score of the original server in 27 cases and falls short of it in only 5 cases out of a total of 38. We report the release of a new Meta Server feature: instant 3D-Jury scoring of uploaded user models. The 3D-Jury score continues to be a good indicator of structural model quality. It also provides a generic reliability score, especially important for models that were not assigned such by the original server. Individual structure modellers can also benefit from the 3D-Jury scoring system by testing their models in the new instant scoring feature http://meta.bioinfo.pl/compare_your_model_example.pl available in the Meta Server.

Spatial measurement error and correction by spatial SIMEX in linear regression models when using predicted air pollution exposures.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent

2016-04-01

Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

ECOSAR model performance with a large test set of industrial chemicals.

PubMed

Reuschenbach, Peter; Silvani, Maurizio; Dammann, Martina; Warnecke, Dietmar; Knacker, Thomas

2008-05-01

The widely used ECOSAR computer programme for QSAR prediction of chemical toxicity towards aquatic organisms was evaluated by using large data sets of industrial chemicals with varying molecular structures. Experimentally derived toxicity data covering acute effects on fish, Daphnia and green algae growth inhibition of in total more than 1,000 randomly selected substances were compared to the prediction results of the ECOSAR programme in order (1) to assess the capability of ECOSAR to correctly classify the chemicals into defined classes of aquatic toxicity according to rules of EU regulation and (2) to determine the number of correct predictions within tolerance factors from 2 to 1,000. Regarding ecotoxicity classification, 65% (fish), 52% (Daphnia) and 49% (algae) of the substances were correctly predicted into the classes "not harmful", "harmful", "toxic" and "very toxic". At all trophic levels about 20% of the chemicals were underestimated in their toxicity. The class of "not harmful" substances (experimental LC/EC(50)>100 mg l(-1)) represents nearly half of the whole data set. The percentages for correct predictions of toxic effects on fish, Daphnia and algae growth inhibition were 69%, 64% and 60%, respectively, when a tolerance factor of 10 was allowed. Focussing on those experimental results which were verified by analytically measured concentrations, the predictability for Daphnia and algae toxicity was improved by approximately three percentage points, whereas for fish no improvement was determined. The calculated correlation coefficients demonstrated poor correlation when the complete data set was taken, but showed good results for some of the ECOSAR chemical classes. The results are discussed in the context of literature data on the performance of ECOSAR and other QSAR models.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and groundwater data, both raw and processed, that minimize predictive uncertainty, while simultaneously identifying the maximum solution-space dimensionality of the inverse problem supported by the data.

Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

Validation of the k- ω turbulence model for the thermal boundary layer profile of effusive cooled walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hink, R.

2015-09-01

The choice of materials for rocket chamber walls is limited by its thermal resistance. The thermal loads can be reduced substantially by the blowing out of gases through a porous surface. The k- ω-based turbulence models for computational fluid dynamic simulations are designed for smooth, non-permeable walls and have to be adjusted to account for the influence of injected fluids. Wilcox proposed therefore an extension for the k- ω turbulence model for the correct prediction of turbulent boundary layer velocity profiles. In this study, this extension is validated against experimental thermal boundary layer data from the Thermosciences Division of the Department of Mechanical Engineering from the Stanford University. All simulations are performed with a finite volume-based in-house code of the German Aerospace Center. Several simulations with different blowing settings were conducted and discussed in comparison to the results of the original model and in comparison to an additional roughness implementation. This study has permitted to understand that velocity profile corrections are necessary in contrast to additional roughness corrections to predict the correct thermal boundary layer profile of effusive cooled walls. Finally, this approach is applied to a two-dimensional simulation of an effusive cooled rocket chamber wall.

An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

2015-04-01

The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

Evaluation of 3D-Jury on CASP7 models

PubMed Central

Kaján, László; Rychlewski, Leszek

2007-01-01

Background 3D-Jury, the structure prediction consensus method publicly available in the Meta Server , was evaluated using models gathered in the 7th round of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP7). 3D-Jury is an automated expert process that generates protein structure meta-predictions from sets of models obtained from partner servers. Results The performance of 3D-Jury was analysed for three aspects. First, we examined the correlation between the 3D-Jury score and a model quality measure: the number of correctly predicted residues. The 3D-Jury score was shown to correlate significantly with the number of correctly predicted residues, the correlation is good enough to be used for prediction. 3D-Jury was also found to improve upon the competing servers' choice of the best structure model in most cases. The value of the 3D-Jury score as a generic reliability measure was also examined. We found that the 3D-Jury score separates bad models from good models better than the reliability score of the original server in 27 cases and falls short of it in only 5 cases out of a total of 38. We report the release of a new Meta Server feature: instant 3D-Jury scoring of uploaded user models. Conclusion The 3D-Jury score continues to be a good indicator of structural model quality. It also provides a generic reliability score, especially important for models that were not assigned such by the original server. Individual structure modellers can also benefit from the 3D-Jury scoring system by testing their models in the new instant scoring feature available in the Meta Server. PMID:17711571

Predicting the stability of nanodevices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z. Z.; Yu, W. F.; Wang, Y.; Ning, X. J.

2011-05-01

A simple model based on the statistics of single atoms is developed to predict the stability or lifetime of nanodevices without empirical parameters. Under certain conditions, the model produces the Arrhenius law and the Meyer-Neldel compensation rule. Compared with the classical molecular-dynamics simulations for predicting the stability of monatomic carbon chain at high temperature, the model is proved to be much more accurate than the transition state theory. Based on the ab initio calculation of the static potential, the model can give out a corrected lifetime of monatomic carbon and gold chains at higher temperature, and predict that the monatomic chains are very stable at room temperature.

Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

PubMed

Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

Multi-model data fusion to improve an early warning system for hypo-/hyperglycemic events.

PubMed

Botwey, Ransford Henry; Daskalaki, Elena; Diem, Peter; Mougiakakou, Stavroula G

2014-01-01

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Development and implementation of a regression model for predicting recreational water quality in the Cuyahoga River, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio 2009-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brady, Amie M.G.; Plona, Meg B.

2012-01-01

The Cuyahoga River within Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP) is at times impaired for recreational use due to elevated concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli), a fecal-indicator bacterium. During the recreational seasons of mid-May through September during 2009–11, samples were collected 4 days per week and analyzed for E. coli concentrations at two sites within CVNP. Other water-quality and environ-mental data, including turbidity, rainfall, and streamflow, were measured and (or) tabulated for analysis. Regression models developed to predict recreational water quality in the river were implemented during the recreational seasons of 2009–11 for one site within CVNP–Jaite. For the 2009 and 2010 seasons, the regression models were better at predicting exceedances of Ohio's single-sample standard for primary-contact recreation compared to the traditional method of using the previous day's E. coli concentration. During 2009, the regression model was based on data collected during 2005 through 2008, excluding available 2004 data. The resulting model for 2009 did not perform as well as expected (based on the calibration data set) and tended to overestimate concentrations (correct responses at 69 percent). During 2010, the regression model was based on data collected during 2004 through 2009, including all of the available data. The 2010 model performed well, correctly predicting 89 percent of the samples above or below the single-sample standard, even though the predictions tended to be lower than actual sample concentrations. During 2011, the regression model was based on data collected during 2004 through 2010 and tended to overestimate concentrations. The 2011 model did not perform as well as the traditional method or as expected, based on the calibration dataset (correct responses at 56 percent). At a second site—Lock 29, approximately 5 river miles upstream from Jaite, a regression model based on data collected at the site during the recreational seasons of 2008–10 also did not perform as well as the traditional method or as well as expected (correct responses at 60 percent). Above normal precipitation in the region and a delayed start to the 2011 sampling season (sampling began mid-June) may have affected how well the 2011 models performed. With these new data, however, updated regression models may be better able to predict recreational water quality conditions due to the increased amount of diverse water quality conditions included in the calibration data. Daily recreational water-quality predictions for Jaite were made available on the Ohio Nowcast Web site at www.ohionowcast.info. Other public outreach included signage at trailheads in the park, articles in the park's quarterly-published schedule of events and volunteer newsletters. A U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet was also published to bring attention to water-quality issues in the park.

Embedded Model Error Representation and Propagation in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Safta, C.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

Over the last decade, parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have reached a level of maturity, while the same can not be said about representation and quantification of structural or model errors. Lack of characterization of model errors, induced by physical assumptions, phenomenological parameterizations or constitutive laws, is a major handicap in predictive science. In particular, e.g. in climate models, significant computational resources are dedicated to model calibration without gaining improvement in predictive skill. Neglecting model errors during calibration/tuning will lead to overconfident and biased model parameters. At the same time, the most advanced methods accounting for model error merely correct output biases, augmenting model outputs with statistical error terms that can potentially violate physical laws, or make the calibrated model ineffective for extrapolative scenarios. This work will overview a principled path for representing and quantifying model errors, as well as propagating them together with the rest of the predictive uncertainty budget, including data noise, parametric uncertainties and surrogate-related errors. Namely, the model error terms will be embedded in select model components rather than as external corrections. Such embedding ensures consistency with physical constraints on model predictions, and renders calibrated model predictions meaningful and robust with respect to model errors. Besides, in the presence of observational data, the approach can effectively differentiate model structural deficiencies from those of data acquisition. The methodology is implemented in UQ Toolkit (www.sandia.gov/uqtoolkit), relying on a host of available forward and inverse UQ tools. We will demonstrate the application of the technique on few application of interest, including ACME Land Model calibration via a wide range of measurements obtained at select sites.

Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Wheat Breeding Through Spatial Adjustment of Field Trial Data

PubMed Central

Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

2013-01-01

In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models. PMID:24082033

Predictions for the Dirac C P -violating phase from sum rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgadillo, Luis A.; Everett, Lisa L.; Ramos, Raymundo; Stuart, Alexander J.

2018-05-01

We explore the implications of recent results relating the Dirac C P -violating phase to predicted and measured leptonic mixing angles within a standard set of theoretical scenarios in which charged lepton corrections are responsible for generating a nonzero value of the reactor mixing angle. We employ a full set of leptonic sum rules as required by the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix, which can be reduced to predictions for the observable mixing angles and the Dirac C P -violating phase in terms of model parameters. These sum rules are investigated within a given set of theoretical scenarios for the neutrino sector diagonalization matrix for several known classes of charged lepton corrections. The results provide explicit maps of the allowed model parameter space within each given scenario and assumed form of charged lepton perturbations.

On INM's Use of Corrected Net Thrust for the Prediction of Jet Aircraft Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAninch, Gerry L.; Shepherd, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA) Integrated Noise Model (INM) employs a prediction methodology that relies on corrected net thrust as the sole correlating parameter between aircraft and engine operating states and aircraft noise. Thus aircraft noise measured for one set of atmospheric and aircraft operating conditions is assumed to be applicable to all other conditions as long as the corrected net thrust remains constant. This hypothesis is investigated under two primary assumptions: (1) the sound field generated by the aircraft is dominated by jet noise, and (2) the sound field generated by the jet flow is adequately described by Lighthill s theory of noise generated by turbulence.

Open EFTs, IR effects & late-time resummations: systematic corrections in stochastic inflation

DOE PAGES

Burgess, C. P.; Holman, R.; Tasinato, G.

2016-01-26

Though simple inflationary models describe the CMB well, their corrections are often plagued by infrared effects that obstruct a reliable calculation of late-time behaviour. Here we adapt to cosmology tools designed to address similar issues in other physical systems with the goal of making reliable late-time inflationary predictions. The main such tool is Open EFTs which reduce in the inflationary case to Stochastic Inflation plus calculable corrections. We apply this to a simple inflationary model that is complicated enough to have dangerous IR behaviour yet simple enough to allow the inference of late-time behaviour. We find corrections to standard Stochasticmore » Inflationary predictions for the noise and drift, and we find these corrections ensure the IR finiteness of both these quantities. The late-time probability distribution, P(Φ), for super-Hubble field fluctuations are obtained as functions of the noise and drift and so these too are IR finite. We compare our results to other methods (such as large-N models) and find they agree when these models are reliable. In all cases we can explore in detail we find IR secular effects describe the slow accumulation of small perturbations to give a big effect: a significant distortion of the late-time probability distribution for the field. But the energy density associated with this is only of order H 4 at late times and so does not generate a dramatic gravitational back-reaction.« less

Open EFTs, IR effects & late-time resummations: systematic corrections in stochastic inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess, C. P.; Holman, R.; Tasinato, G.

Though simple inflationary models describe the CMB well, their corrections are often plagued by infrared effects that obstruct a reliable calculation of late-time behaviour. Here we adapt to cosmology tools designed to address similar issues in other physical systems with the goal of making reliable late-time inflationary predictions. The main such tool is Open EFTs which reduce in the inflationary case to Stochastic Inflation plus calculable corrections. We apply this to a simple inflationary model that is complicated enough to have dangerous IR behaviour yet simple enough to allow the inference of late-time behaviour. We find corrections to standard Stochasticmore » Inflationary predictions for the noise and drift, and we find these corrections ensure the IR finiteness of both these quantities. The late-time probability distribution, P(Φ), for super-Hubble field fluctuations are obtained as functions of the noise and drift and so these too are IR finite. We compare our results to other methods (such as large-N models) and find they agree when these models are reliable. In all cases we can explore in detail we find IR secular effects describe the slow accumulation of small perturbations to give a big effect: a significant distortion of the late-time probability distribution for the field. But the energy density associated with this is only of order H 4 at late times and so does not generate a dramatic gravitational back-reaction.« less

Drug Distribution. Part 1. Models to Predict Membrane Partitioning.

PubMed

Nagar, Swati; Korzekwa, Ken

2017-03-01

Tissue partitioning is an important component of drug distribution and half-life. Protein binding and lipid partitioning together determine drug distribution. Two structure-based models to predict partitioning into microsomal membranes are presented. An orientation-based model was developed using a membrane template and atom-based relative free energy functions to select drug conformations and orientations for neutral and basic drugs. The resulting model predicts the correct membrane positions for nine compounds tested, and predicts the membrane partitioning for n = 67 drugs with an average fold-error of 2.4. Next, a more facile descriptor-based model was developed for acids, neutrals and bases. This model considers the partitioning of neutral and ionized species at equilibrium, and can predict membrane partitioning with an average fold-error of 2.0 (n = 92 drugs). Together these models suggest that drug orientation is important for membrane partitioning and that membrane partitioning can be well predicted from physicochemical properties.

Accurate and predictive antibody repertoire profiling by molecular amplification fingerprinting.

PubMed

Khan, Tarik A; Friedensohn, Simon; Gorter de Vries, Arthur R; Straszewski, Jakub; Ruscheweyh, Hans-Joachim; Reddy, Sai T

2016-03-01

High-throughput antibody repertoire sequencing (Ig-seq) provides quantitative molecular information on humoral immunity. However, Ig-seq is compromised by biases and errors introduced during library preparation and sequencing. By using synthetic antibody spike-in genes, we determined that primer bias from multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) library preparation resulted in antibody frequencies with only 42 to 62% accuracy. Additionally, Ig-seq errors resulted in antibody diversity measurements being overestimated by up to 5000-fold. To rectify this, we developed molecular amplification fingerprinting (MAF), which uses unique molecular identifier (UID) tagging before and during multiplex PCR amplification, which enabled tagging of transcripts while accounting for PCR efficiency. Combined with a bioinformatic pipeline, MAF bias correction led to measurements of antibody frequencies with up to 99% accuracy. We also used MAF to correct PCR and sequencing errors, resulting in enhanced accuracy of full-length antibody diversity measurements, achieving 98 to 100% error correction. Using murine MAF-corrected data, we established a quantitative metric of recent clonal expansion-the intraclonal diversity index-which measures the number of unique transcripts associated with an antibody clone. We used this intraclonal diversity index along with antibody frequencies and somatic hypermutation to build a logistic regression model for prediction of the immunological status of clones. The model was able to predict clonal status with high confidence but only when using MAF error and bias corrected Ig-seq data. Improved accuracy by MAF provides the potential to greatly advance Ig-seq and its utility in immunology and biotechnology.

Accurate and predictive antibody repertoire profiling by molecular amplification fingerprinting

PubMed Central

Khan, Tarik A.; Friedensohn, Simon; de Vries, Arthur R. Gorter; Straszewski, Jakub; Ruscheweyh, Hans-Joachim; Reddy, Sai T.

2016-01-01

High-throughput antibody repertoire sequencing (Ig-seq) provides quantitative molecular information on humoral immunity. However, Ig-seq is compromised by biases and errors introduced during library preparation and sequencing. By using synthetic antibody spike-in genes, we determined that primer bias from multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) library preparation resulted in antibody frequencies with only 42 to 62% accuracy. Additionally, Ig-seq errors resulted in antibody diversity measurements being overestimated by up to 5000-fold. To rectify this, we developed molecular amplification fingerprinting (MAF), which uses unique molecular identifier (UID) tagging before and during multiplex PCR amplification, which enabled tagging of transcripts while accounting for PCR efficiency. Combined with a bioinformatic pipeline, MAF bias correction led to measurements of antibody frequencies with up to 99% accuracy. We also used MAF to correct PCR and sequencing errors, resulting in enhanced accuracy of full-length antibody diversity measurements, achieving 98 to 100% error correction. Using murine MAF-corrected data, we established a quantitative metric of recent clonal expansion—the intraclonal diversity index—which measures the number of unique transcripts associated with an antibody clone. We used this intraclonal diversity index along with antibody frequencies and somatic hypermutation to build a logistic regression model for prediction of the immunological status of clones. The model was able to predict clonal status with high confidence but only when using MAF error and bias corrected Ig-seq data. Improved accuracy by MAF provides the potential to greatly advance Ig-seq and its utility in immunology and biotechnology. PMID:26998518

Blind predictions of protein interfaces by docking calculations in CAPRI.

PubMed

Lensink, Marc F; Wodak, Shoshana J

2010-11-15

Reliable prediction of the amino acid residues involved in protein-protein interfaces can provide valuable insight into protein function, and inform mutagenesis studies, and drug design applications. A fast-growing number of methods are being proposed for predicting protein interfaces, using structural information, energetic criteria, or sequence conservation or by integrating multiple criteria and approaches. Overall however, their performance remains limited, especially when applied to nonobligate protein complexes, where the individual components are also stable on their own. Here, we evaluate interface predictions derived from protein-protein docking calculations. To this end we measure the overlap between the interfaces in models of protein complexes submitted by 76 participants in CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) and those of 46 observed interfaces in 20 CAPRI targets corresponding to nonobligate complexes. Our evaluation considers multiple models for each target interface, submitted by different participants, using a variety of docking methods. Although this results in a substantial variability in the prediction performance across participants and targets, clear trends emerge. Docking methods that perform best in our evaluation predict interfaces with average recall and precision levels of about 60%, for a small majority (60%) of the analyzed interfaces. These levels are significantly higher than those obtained for nonobligate complexes by most extant interface prediction methods. We find furthermore that a sizable fraction (24%) of the interfaces in models ranked as incorrect in the CAPRI assessment are actually correctly predicted (recall and precision ≥50%), and that these models contribute to 70% of the correct docking-based interface predictions overall. Our analysis proves that docking methods are much more successful in identifying interfaces than in predicting complexes, and suggests that these methods have an excellent potential of addressing the interface prediction challenge. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The implementation of rare events logistic regression to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals across the main Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Veazey, Lindsay M; Franklin, Erik C; Kelley, Christopher; Rooney, John; Frazer, L Neil; Toonen, Robert J

2016-01-01

Predictive habitat suitability models are powerful tools for cost-effective, statistically robust assessment of the environmental drivers of species distributions. The aim of this study was to develop predictive habitat suitability models for two genera of scleractinian corals (Leptoserisand Montipora) found within the mesophotic zone across the main Hawaiian Islands. The mesophotic zone (30-180 m) is challenging to reach, and therefore historically understudied, because it falls between the maximum limit of SCUBA divers and the minimum typical working depth of submersible vehicles. Here, we implement a logistic regression with rare events corrections to account for the scarcity of presence observations within the dataset. These corrections reduced the coefficient error and improved overall prediction success (73.6% and 74.3%) for both original regression models. The final models included depth, rugosity, slope, mean current velocity, and wave height as the best environmental covariates for predicting the occurrence of the two genera in the mesophotic zone. Using an objectively selected theta ("presence") threshold, the predicted presence probability values (average of 0.051 for Leptoseris and 0.040 for Montipora) were translated to spatially-explicit habitat suitability maps of the main Hawaiian Islands at 25 m grid cell resolution. Our maps are the first of their kind to use extant presence and absence data to examine the habitat preferences of these two dominant mesophotic coral genera across Hawai'i.

Exploring corrections to the Optomechanical Hamiltonian.

PubMed

Sala, Kamila; Tufarelli, Tommaso

2018-06-14

We compare two approaches for deriving corrections to the "linear model" of cavity optomechanics, in order to describe effects that are beyond first order in the radiation pressure coupling. In the regime where the mechanical frequency is much lower than the cavity one, we compare: (I) a widely used phenomenological Hamiltonian conserving the photon number; (II) a two-mode truncation of C. K. Law's microscopic model, which we take as the "true" system Hamiltonian. While these approaches agree at first order, the latter model does not conserve the photon number, resulting in challenging computations. We find that approach (I) allows for several analytical predictions, and significantly outperforms the linear model in our numerical examples. Yet, we also find that the phenomenological Hamiltonian cannot fully capture all high-order corrections arising from the C. K. Law model.

On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Højberg, A. L.; Troldborg, L.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Christensen, B. S. B.; Olsen, M.; Henriksen, H. J.

2012-11-01

Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time-space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990-2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV precipitation correction should be carried out for studies requiring a sound dynamic description of hydrological processes, and it is of particular importance when using hydrological models to make predictions for future climates when the snow/rain composition will differ from the past climate. This conclusion is expected to be applicable for mid to high latitudes, especially in coastal climates where winter precipitation types (solid/liquid) fluctuate significantly, causing climatological mean correction factors to be inadequate.

The Incremental Value of Subjective and Quantitative Assessment of 18F-FDG PET for the Prediction of Pathologic Complete Response to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

van Rossum, Peter S N; Fried, David V; Zhang, Lifei; Hofstetter, Wayne L; van Vulpen, Marco; Meijer, Gert J; Court, Laurence E; Lin, Steven H

2016-05-01

A reliable prediction of a pathologic complete response (pathCR) to chemoradiotherapy before surgery for esophageal cancer would enable investigators to study the feasibility and outcome of an organ-preserving strategy after chemoradiotherapy. So far no clinical parameters or diagnostic studies are able to accurately predict which patients will achieve a pathCR. The aim of this study was to determine whether subjective and quantitative assessment of baseline and postchemoradiation (18)F-FDG PET can improve the accuracy of predicting pathCR to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer beyond clinical predictors. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, and the need for written informed consent was waived. Clinical parameters along with subjective and quantitative parameters from baseline and postchemoradiation (18)F-FDG PET were derived from 217 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery. The associations between these parameters and pathCR were studied in univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Four prediction models were constructed and internally validated using bootstrapping to study the incremental predictive values of subjective assessment of (18)F-FDG PET, conventional quantitative metabolic features, and comprehensive (18)F-FDG PET texture/geometry features, respectively. The clinical benefit of (18)F-FDG PET was determined using decision-curve analysis. A pathCR was found in 59 (27%) patients. A clinical prediction model (corrected c-index, 0.67) was improved by adding (18)F-FDG PET-based subjective assessment of response (corrected c-index, 0.72). This latter model was slightly improved by the addition of 1 conventional quantitative metabolic feature only (i.e., postchemoradiation total lesion glycolysis; corrected c-index, 0.73), and even more by subsequently adding 4 comprehensive (18)F-FDG PET texture/geometry features (corrected c-index, 0.77). However, at a decision threshold of 0.9 or higher, representing a clinically relevant predictive value for pathCR at which one may be willing to omit surgery, there was no clear incremental value. Subjective and quantitative assessment of (18)F-FDG PET provides statistical incremental value for predicting pathCR after preoperative chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer. However, the discriminatory improvement beyond clinical predictors does not translate into a clinically relevant benefit that could change decision making. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Evaluating the utility of mid-infrared spectral subspaces for predicting soil properties.

PubMed

Sila, Andrew M; Shepherd, Keith D; Pokhariyal, Ganesh P

2016-04-15

We propose four methods for finding local subspaces in large spectral libraries. The proposed four methods include (a) cosine angle spectral matching; (b) hit quality index spectral matching; (c) self-organizing maps and (d) archetypal analysis methods. Then evaluate prediction accuracies for global and subspaces calibration models. These methods were tested on a mid-infrared spectral library containing 1907 soil samples collected from 19 different countries under the Africa Soil Information Service project. Calibration models for pH, Mehlich-3 Ca, Mehlich-3 Al, total carbon and clay soil properties were developed for the whole library and for the subspace. Root mean square error of prediction was used to evaluate predictive performance of subspace and global models. The root mean square error of prediction was computed using a one-third-holdout validation set. Effect of pretreating spectra with different methods was tested for 1st and 2nd derivative Savitzky-Golay algorithm, multiplicative scatter correction, standard normal variate and standard normal variate followed by detrending methods. In summary, the results show that global models outperformed the subspace models. We, therefore, conclude that global models are more accurate than the local models except in few cases. For instance, sand and clay root mean square error values from local models from archetypal analysis method were 50% poorer than the global models except for subspace models obtained using multiplicative scatter corrected spectra with which were 12% better. However, the subspace approach provides novel methods for discovering data pattern that may exist in large spectral libraries.

A comparative study of several compressibility corrections to turbulence models applied to high-speed shear layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viegas, John R.; Rubesin, Morris W.

1991-01-01

Several recently published compressibility corrections to the standard k-epsilon turbulence model are used with the Navier-Stokes equations to compute the mixing region of a large variety of high speed flows. These corrections, specifically developed to address the weakness of higher order turbulence models to accurately predict the spread rate of compressible free shear flows, are applied to two stream flows of the same gas mixing under a large variety of free stream conditions. Results are presented for two types of flows: unconfined streams with either (1) matched total temperatures and static pressures, or (2) matched static temperatures and pressures, and a confined stream.

Sex determination of the Acadian Flycatcher using discriminant analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, R.R.

1999-01-01

I used five morphometric variables from 114 individuals captured in Arkansas to develop a discriminant model to predict the sex of Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens). Stepwise discriminant function analyses selected wing chord and tail length as the most parsimonious subset of variables for discriminating sex. This two-variable model correctly classified 80% of females and 97% of males used to develop the model. Validation of the model using 19 individuals from Louisiana and Virginia resulted in 100% correct classification of males and females. This model provides criteria for sexing monomorphic Acadian Flycatchers during the breeding season and possibly during the winter.

Quantum Loop Expansion to High Orders, Extended Borel Summation, and Comparison with Exact Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noreen, Amna; Olaussen, Kåre

2013-07-01

We compare predictions of the quantum loop expansion to (essentially) infinite orders with (essentially) exact results in a simple quantum mechanical model. We find that there are exponentially small corrections to the loop expansion, which cannot be explained by any obvious “instanton”-type corrections. It is not the mathematical occurrence of exponential corrections but their seeming lack of any physical origin which we find surprising and puzzling.

Prediction of homoprotein and heteroprotein complexes by protein docking and template‐based modeling: A CASP‐CAPRI experiment

PubMed Central

Velankar, Sameer; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Huang, Shen‐You; Schneidman‐Duhovny, Dina; Sali, Andrej; Segura, Joan; Fernandez‐Fuentes, Narcis; Viswanath, Shruthi; Elber, Ron; Grudinin, Sergei; Popov, Petr; Neveu, Emilie; Lee, Hasup; Baek, Minkyung; Park, Sangwoo; Heo, Lim; Rie Lee, Gyu; Seok, Chaok; Qin, Sanbo; Zhou, Huan‐Xiang; Ritchie, David W.; Maigret, Bernard; Devignes, Marie‐Dominique; Ghoorah, Anisah; Torchala, Mieczyslaw; Chaleil, Raphaël A.G.; Bates, Paul A.; Ben‐Zeev, Efrat; Eisenstein, Miriam; Negi, Surendra S.; Weng, Zhiping; Vreven, Thom; Pierce, Brian G.; Borrman, Tyler M.; Yu, Jinchao; Ochsenbein, Françoise; Guerois, Raphaël; Vangone, Anna; Rodrigues, João P.G.L.M.; van Zundert, Gydo; Nellen, Mehdi; Xue, Li; Karaca, Ezgi; Melquiond, Adrien S.J.; Visscher, Koen; Kastritis, Panagiotis L.; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Xu, Xianjin; Qiu, Liming; Yan, Chengfei; Li, Jilong; Ma, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jianlin; Zou, Xiaoqin; Shen, Yang; Peterson, Lenna X.; Kim, Hyung‐Rae; Roy, Amit; Han, Xusi; Esquivel‐Rodriguez, Juan; Kihara, Daisuke; Yu, Xiaofeng; Bruce, Neil J.; Fuller, Jonathan C.; Wade, Rebecca C.; Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J.; Vakser, Ilya A.; Imai, Kenichiro; Yamada, Kazunori; Oda, Toshiyuki; Nakamura, Tsukasa; Tomii, Kentaro; Pallara, Chiara; Romero‐Durana, Miguel; Jiménez‐García, Brian; Moal, Iain H.; Férnandez‐Recio, Juan; Joung, Jong Young; Kim, Jong Yun; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Jooyoung; Kozakov, Dima; Vajda, Sandor; Mottarella, Scott; Hall, David R.; Beglov, Dmitri; Mamonov, Artem; Xia, Bing; Bohnuud, Tanggis; Del Carpio, Carlos A.; Ichiishi, Eichiro; Marze, Nicholas; Kuroda, Daisuke; Roy Burman, Shourya S.; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Chermak, Edrisse; Cavallo, Luigi; Oliva, Romina; Tovchigrechko, Andrey

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT We present the results for CAPRI Round 30, the first joint CASP‐CAPRI experiment, which brought together experts from the protein structure prediction and protein–protein docking communities. The Round comprised 25 targets from amongst those submitted for the CASP11 prediction experiment of 2014. The targets included mostly homodimers, a few homotetramers, and two heterodimers, and comprised protein chains that could readily be modeled using templates from the Protein Data Bank. On average 24 CAPRI groups and 7 CASP groups submitted docking predictions for each target, and 12 CAPRI groups per target participated in the CAPRI scoring experiment. In total more than 9500 models were assessed against the 3D structures of the corresponding target complexes. Results show that the prediction of homodimer assemblies by homology modeling techniques and docking calculations is quite successful for targets featuring large enough subunit interfaces to represent stable associations. Targets with ambiguous or inaccurate oligomeric state assignments, often featuring crystal contact‐sized interfaces, represented a confounding factor. For those, a much poorer prediction performance was achieved, while nonetheless often providing helpful clues on the correct oligomeric state of the protein. The prediction performance was very poor for genuine tetrameric targets, where the inaccuracy of the homology‐built subunit models and the smaller pair‐wise interfaces severely limited the ability to derive the correct assembly mode. Our analysis also shows that docking procedures tend to perform better than standard homology modeling techniques and that highly accurate models of the protein components are not always required to identify their association modes with acceptable accuracy. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):323–348. © 2016 The Authors Proteins: Structure, Function, and Bioinformatics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27122118

Innovative Liner Concepts: Experiments and Impedance Modeling of Liners Including the Effect of Bias Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Jeff; Betts, Juan Fernando; Fuller, Chris

2000-01-01

The study of normal impedance of perforated plate acoustic liners including the effect of bias flow was studied. Two impedance models were developed by modeling the internal flows of perforate orifices as infinite tubes with the inclusion of end corrections to handle finite length effects. These models assumed incompressible and compressible flows, respectively, between the far field and the perforate orifice. The incompressible model was used to predict impedance results for perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 5% to 15%. The predicted resistance results showed better agreement with experiments for the higher percent open area samples. The agreement also tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. For perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 1% to 5%, the compressible model was used to predict impedance results. The model predictions were closer to the experimental resistance results for the 2% to 3% open area samples. The predictions tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. The reactance results were well predicted by the models for the higher percent open area, but deteriorated as the percent open area was lowered (5%) and bias flow was increased. A fit was done on the incompressible model to the experimental database. The fit was performed using an optimization routine that found the optimal set of multiplication coefficients to the non-dimensional groups that minimized the least squares slope error between predictions and experiments. The result of the fit indicated that terms not associated with bias flow required a greater degree of correction than the terms associated with the bias flow. This model improved agreement with experiments by nearly 15% for the low percent open area (5%) samples when compared to the unfitted model. The fitted model and the unfitted model performed equally well for the higher percent open area (10% and 15%).

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Intelligent path loss prediction engine design using machine learning in the urban outdoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruichen; Lu, Jingyang; Xu, Yiran; Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2018-05-01

Due to the progressive expansion of public mobile networks and the dramatic growth of the number of wireless users in recent years, researchers are motivated to study the radio propagation in urban environments and develop reliable and fast path loss prediction models. During last decades, different types of propagation models are developed for urban scenario path loss predictions such as the Hata model and the COST 231 model. In this paper, the path loss prediction model is thoroughly investigated using machine learning approaches. Different non-linear feature selection methods are deployed and investigated to reduce the computational complexity. The simulation results are provided to demonstratethe validity of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can correctly determine the signal propagation in a wireless urban setting.

A viable method to predict acoustic streaming in presence of cavitation.

PubMed

Louisnard, O

2017-03-01

The steady liquid flow observed under ultrasonic emitters generating acoustic cavitation can be successfully predicted by a standard turbulent flow calculation. The flow is driven by the classical averaged volumetric force density calculated from the acoustic field, but the inertial term in Navier-Stokes equations must be kept, and a turbulent solution must be sought. The acoustic field must be computed with a realistic model, properly accounting for dissipation by the cavitation bubbles [Louisnard, Ultrason. Sonochem., 19, (2012) 56-65]. Comparison with 20kHz experiments, involving the combination of acoustic streaming and a perpendicular forced flow in a duct, shows reasonably good agreement. Moreover, the persistence of the cavitation effects on the wall facing the emitter, in spite of the deflection of the streaming jet, is correctly reproduced by the model. It is also shown that predictions based either on linear acoustics with the correct turbulent solution, or with Louisnard's model with Eckart-Nyborg's theory yields unrealistic results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observation of the pressure effect in simulations of droplets splashing on a dry surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boelens, A. M. P.; Latka, A.; de Pablo, J. J.

2018-06-01

At atmospheric pressure, a drop of ethanol impacting on a solid surface produces a splash. Reducing the ambient pressure below its atmospheric value suppresses this splash. The origin of this so-called pressure effect is not well understood, and this study presents an in-depth comparison between various theoretical models that aim to predict splashing and simulations. In this paper, the pressure effect is explored numerically by resolving the Navier-Stokes equations at a 3-nm resolution. In addition to reproducing numerous experimental observations, it is found that different models all provide elements of what is observed in the simulations. The skating droplet model correctly predicts the existence and scaling of a gas film under the droplet, the lamella formation theory is able to correctly predict the scaling of the lamella ejection velocity as a function of the impact velocity for liquids with different viscosity, and lastly, the dewetting theory's hypothesis of a lift force acting on the liquid sheet after ejection is consistent with our results.

Effect of tubing length on the dispersion correction of an arterially sampled input function for kinetic modeling in PET.

PubMed

O'Doherty, Jim; Chilcott, Anna; Dunn, Joel

2015-11-01

Arterial sampling with dispersion correction is routinely performed for kinetic analysis of PET studies. Because of the the advent of PET-MRI systems, non-MR safe instrumentation will be required to be kept outside the scan room, which requires the length of the tubing between the patient and detector to increase, thus worsening the effects of dispersion. We examined the effects of dispersion in idealized radioactive blood studies using various lengths of tubing (1.5, 3, and 4.5 m) and applied a well-known transmission-dispersion model to attempt to correct the resulting traces. A simulation study was also carried out to examine noise characteristics of the model. The model was applied to patient traces using a 1.5 m acquisition tubing and extended to its use at 3 m. Satisfactory dispersion correction of the blood traces was achieved in the 1.5 m line. Predictions on the basis of experimental measurements, numerical simulations and noise analysis of resulting traces show that corrections of blood data can also be achieved using the 3 m tubing. The effects of dispersion could not be corrected for the 4.5 m line by the selected transmission-dispersion model. On the basis of our setup, correction of dispersion in arterial sampling tubing up to 3 m by the transmission-dispersion model can be performed. The model could not dispersion correct data acquired using a 4.5 m arterial tubing.

Correlation-based Transition Modeling for External Aerodynamic Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medida, Shivaji

Conventional turbulence models calibrated for fully turbulent boundary layers often over-predict drag and heat transfer on aerodynamic surfaces with partially laminar boundary layers. A robust correlation-based model is developed for use in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations to predict laminar-to-turbulent transition onset of boundary layers on external aerodynamic surfaces. The new model is derived from an existing transition model for the two-equation k-omega Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, and is coupled with the one-equation Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. The transition model solves two transport equations for intermittency and transition momentum thickness Reynolds number. Experimental correlations and local mean flow quantities are used in the model to account for effects of freestream turbulence level and pressure gradients on transition onset location. Transition onset is triggered by activating intermittency production using a vorticity Reynolds number criterion. In the new model, production and destruction terms of the intermittency equation are modified to improve consistency in the fully turbulent boundary layer post-transition onset, as well as ensure insensitivity to freestream eddy viscosity value specified in the SA model. In the original model, intermittency was used to control production and destruction of turbulent kinetic energy. Whereas, in the new model, only the production of eddy viscosity in SA model is controlled, and the destruction term is not altered. Unlike the original model, the new model does not use an additional correction to intermittency for separation-induced transition. Accuracy of drag predictions are improved significantly with the use of the transition model for several two-dimensional single- and multi-element airfoil cases over a wide range of Reynolds numbers. The new model is able to predict the formation of stable and long laminar separation bubbles on low-Reynolds number airfoils that is not captured with conventional turbulence models. The validated transition model is successfully applied to rotating blade configurations in axial flow conditions to study the effects of transitional boundary layers on rotor thrust and torque. In helicopter rotors, inclusion of transition effects increased thrust prediction by 2% and decreased torque by as much as 8% at lower collective angles, due to reduced airfoil profile drag. In wind turbine rotors, transition model predicted a 7%--70% increase in generated shaft torque at lower wind speeds, due to lower viscous drag. This has important implications for CFD analysis of small wind turbines operating at low values of rated power. Transition onset locations along upper and lower surfaces of rotor blades are analyzed in detail. A new crossflow transition onset criterion is developed to account for crossflow instability effects in three-dimensional boundary layers. Preliminary results for swept wing and rotating blade flows demonstrate the need to account for crossflow transition in three-dimensional simulations of wings, rotating blades, and airframes. Inclusion of crossflow effects resulted in accelerated transition in the presence of favorable pressure gradients and yawed flow. Finally, a new correction to the wall damping function in the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model is proposed to improve sensitivity of the model to strong adverse pressure gradients (APG). The correction reduces turbulence production in the boundary layer when the ratio of magnitudes of local turbulent stress to the wall shear stress exceeds a threshold value, therefore enabling earlier separation of boundary layer. Improved prediction of static and dynamic stall on two-dimensional airfoils is demonstrated with the APG correction.

Performance of statistical models to predict mental health and substance abuse cost.

PubMed

Montez-Rath, Maria; Christiansen, Cindy L; Ettner, Susan L; Loveland, Susan; Rosen, Amy K

2006-10-26

Providers use risk-adjustment systems to help manage healthcare costs. Typically, ordinary least squares (OLS) models on either untransformed or log-transformed cost are used. We examine the predictive ability of several statistical models, demonstrate how model choice depends on the goal for the predictive model, and examine whether building models on samples of the data affects model choice. Our sample consisted of 525,620 Veterans Health Administration patients with mental health (MH) or substance abuse (SA) diagnoses who incurred costs during fiscal year 1999. We tested two models on a transformation of cost: a Log Normal model and a Square-root Normal model, and three generalized linear models on untransformed cost, defined by distributional assumption and link function: Normal with identity link (OLS); Gamma with log link; and Gamma with square-root link. Risk-adjusters included age, sex, and 12 MH/SA categories. To determine the best model among the entire dataset, predictive ability was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), and predictive ratios of predicted to observed cost (PR) among deciles of predicted cost, by comparing point estimates and 95% bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. To study the effect of analyzing a random sample of the population on model choice, we re-computed these statistics using random samples beginning with 5,000 patients and ending with the entire sample. The Square-root Normal model had the lowest estimates of the RMSE and MAPE, with bootstrap confidence intervals that were always lower than those for the other models. The Gamma with square-root link was best as measured by the PRs. The choice of best model could vary if smaller samples were used and the Gamma with square-root link model had convergence problems with small samples. Models with square-root transformation or link fit the data best. This function (whether used as transformation or as a link) seems to help deal with the high comorbidity of this population by introducing a form of interaction. The Gamma distribution helps with the long tail of the distribution. However, the Normal distribution is suitable if the correct transformation of the outcome is used.

3-D residual eddy current field characterisation: applied to diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kieran; Daducci, Alessandro; Kickler, Nils; Lazeyras, Francois; Gruetter, Rolf; Feiweier, Thorsten; Krueger, Gunnar

2013-08-01

Clinical use of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion weighted images is hampered by the geometric distortions that result from the large residual 3-D eddy current field induced. In this work, we aimed to predict, using linear response theory, the residual 3-D eddy current field required for geometric distortion correction based on phantom eddy current field measurements. The predicted 3-D eddy current field induced by the diffusion-weighting gradients was able to reduce the root mean square error of the residual eddy current field to ~1 Hz. The model's performance was tested on diffusion weighted images of four normal volunteers, following distortion correction, the quality of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted images was found to have comparable quality to image registration based corrections (FSL) at low b-values. Unlike registration techniques the correction was not hindered by low SNR at high b-values, and results in improved image quality relative to FSL. Characterization of the 3-D eddy current field with linear response theory enables the prediction of the 3-D eddy current field required to correct eddy current induced geometric distortions for a wide range of clinical and high b-value protocols.

The usefulness of “corrected” body mass index vs. self-reported body mass index: comparing the population distributions, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive utility of three correction equations using Canadian population-based data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background National data on body mass index (BMI), computed from self-reported height and weight, is readily available for many populations including the Canadian population. Because self-reported weight is found to be systematically under-reported, it has been proposed that the bias in self-reported BMI can be corrected using equations derived from data sets which include both self-reported and measured height and weight. Such correction equations have been developed and adopted. We aim to evaluate the usefulness (i.e., distributional similarity; sensitivity and specificity; and predictive utility vis-à-vis disease outcomes) of existing and new correction equations in population-based research. Methods The Canadian Community Health Surveys from 2005 and 2008 include both measured and self-reported values of height and weight, which allows for construction and evaluation of correction equations. We focused on adults age 18–65, and compared three correction equations (two correcting weight only, and one correcting BMI) against self-reported and measured BMI. We first compared population distributions of BMI. Second, we compared the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported BMI and corrected BMI against measured BMI. Third, we compared the self-reported and corrected BMI in terms of association with health outcomes using logistic regression. Results All corrections outperformed self-report when estimating the full BMI distribution; the weight-only correction outperformed the BMI-only correction for females in the 23–28 kg/m2 BMI range. In terms of sensitivity/specificity, when estimating obesity prevalence, corrected values of BMI (from any equation) were superior to self-report. In terms of modelling BMI-disease outcome associations, findings were mixed, with no correction proving consistently superior to self-report. Conclusions If researchers are interested in modelling the full population distribution of BMI, or estimating the prevalence of obesity in a population, then a correction of any kind included in this study is recommended. If the researcher is interested in using BMI as a predictor variable for modelling disease, then both self-reported and corrected BMI result in biased estimates of association. PMID:24885210

A mechanism-mediated model for carcinogenicity: Model content and prediction of the outcome of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays currently being conducted on 25 organic chemicals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purdy, R.

A hierarchical model consisting of quantitative structure-activity relationships based mainly on chemical reactivity was developed to predict the carcinogenicity of organic chemicals to rodents. The model is comprised of quantitative structure-activity relationships, QSARs based on hypothesized mechanisms of action, metabolism, and partitioning. Predictors included octanol/water partition coefficient, molecular size, atomic partial charge, bond angle strain, atomic acceptor delocalizibility, atomic radical superdelocalizibility, the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy of hypothesized intermediate nitrenium ion of primary aromatic amines, difference in charge of ionized and unionized carbon-chlorine bonds, substituent size and pattern on polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, the distance between lone electron pairsmore » over a rigid structure, and the presence of functionalities such as nitroso and hydrazine. The model correctly classified 96% of the carcinogens in the training set of 306 chemicals, and 90% of the carcinogens in the test set of 301 chemicals. The test set by chance contained 84% of the positive thiocontaining chemicals. A QSAR for these chemicals was developed. This posttest set modified model correctly predicted 94% of the carcinogens in the test set. This model was used to predict the carcinogenicity of the 25 organic chemicals the U.S. National Toxicology Program was testing at the writing of this article. 12 refs., 3 tabs.« less

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE PAGES

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter; ...

2015-12-11

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

Virtual simulation of the postsurgical cosmetic outcome in patients with Pectus Excavatum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilaça, João L.; Moreira, António H. J.; L-Rodrigues, Pedro; Rodrigues, Nuno; Fonseca, Jaime C.; Pinho, A. C. M.; Correia-Pinto, Jorge

2011-03-01

Pectus excavatum is the most common congenital deformity of the anterior chest wall, in which several ribs and the sternum grow abnormally. Nowadays, the surgical correction is carried out in children and adults through Nuss technic. This technic has been shown to be safe with major drivers as cosmesis and the prevention of psychological problems and social stress. Nowadays, no application is known to predict the cosmetic outcome of the pectus excavatum surgical correction. Such tool could be used to help the surgeon and the patient in the moment of deciding the need for surgery correction. This work is a first step to predict postsurgical outcome in pectus excavatum surgery correction. Facing this goal, it was firstly determined a point cloud of the skin surface along the thoracic wall using Computed Tomography (before surgical correction) and the Polhemus FastSCAN (after the surgical correction). Then, a surface mesh was reconstructed from the two point clouds using a Radial Basis Function algorithm for further affine registration between the meshes. After registration, one studied the surgical correction influence area (SCIA) of the thoracic wall. This SCIA was used to train, test and validate artificial neural networks in order to predict the surgical outcome of pectus excavatum correction and to determine the degree of convergence of SCIA in different patients. Often, ANN did not converge to a satisfactory solution (each patient had its own deformity characteristics), thus invalidating the creation of a mathematical model capable of estimating, with satisfactory results, the postsurgical outcome.

The VSGB 2.0 Model: A Next Generation Energy Model for High Resolution Protein Structure Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Jianing; Abel, Robert; Zhu, Kai; Cao, Yixiang; Zhao, Suwen; Friesner, Richard A.

2011-01-01

A novel energy model (VSGB 2.0) for high resolution protein structure modeling is described, which features an optimized implicit solvent model as well as physics-based corrections for hydrogen bonding, π-π interactions, self-contact interactions and hydrophobic interactions. Parameters of the VSGB 2.0 model were fit to a crystallographic database of 2239 single side chain and 100 11–13 residue loop predictions. Combined with an advanced method of sampling and a robust algorithm for protonation state assignment, the VSGB 2.0 model was validated by predicting 115 super long loops up to 20 residues. Despite the dramatically increasing difficulty in reconstructing longer loops, a high accuracy was achieved: all of the lowest energy conformations have global backbone RMSDs better than 2.0 Å from the native conformations. Average global backbone RMSDs of the predictions are 0.51, 0.63, 0.70, 0.62, 0.80, 1.41, and 1.59 Å for 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 residue loop predictions, respectively. When these results are corrected for possible statistical bias as explained in the text, the average global backbone RMSDs are 0.61, 0.71, 0.86, 0.62, 1.06, 1.67, and 1.59 Å. Given the precision and robustness of the calculations, we believe that the VSGB 2.0 model is suitable to tackle “real” problems, such as biological function modeling and structure-based drug discovery. PMID:21905107

Cylinder-averaged histories of nitrogen oxide in a DI diesel with simulated turbocharging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donahue, Ronald J.; Borman, Gary L.; Bower, Glenn R.

1994-10-01

An experimental study was conducted using the dumping technique (total cylinder sampling) to produce cylinder mass-averaged nitric oxide histories. Data were taken using a four stroke diesel research engine employing a quiescent chamber, high pressure direct injection fuel system, and simulated turbocharging. Two fuels were used to determine fuel cetane number effects. Two loads were run, one at an equivalence ratio of 0.5 and the other at a ratio of 0.3. The engine speed was held constant at 1500 rpm. Under the turbocharged and retarded timing conditions of this study, nitric oxide was produced up to the point of about 85% mass burned. Two different models were used to simulate the engine mn conditions: the phenomenological Hiroyasu spray-combustion model, and the three dimensional, U.W.-ERO modified KIVA-2 computational fluid dynamic code. Both of the models predicted the correct nitric oxide trend. Although the modified KIVA-2 combustion model using Zeldovich kinetics correctly predicted the shapes of the nitric oxide histories, it did not predict the exhaust concentrations without arbitrary adjustment based on experimental values.

Advanced numerical models and material characterisation techniques for composite materials subject to impact and shock wave loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clegg, R. A.; White, D. M.; Hayhurst, C.; Ridel, W.; Harwick, W.; Hiermaier, S.

2003-09-01

The development and validation of an advanced material model for orthotropic materials, such as fibre reinforced composites, is described. The model is specifically designed to facilitate the numerical simulation of impact and shock wave propagation through orthotropic materials and the prediction of subsequent material damage. Initial development of the model concentrated on correctly representing shock wave propagation in composite materials under high and hypervelocity impact conditions [1]. This work has now been extended to further concentrate on the development of improved numerical models and material characterisation techniques for the prediction of damage, including residual strength, in fibre reinforced composite materials. The work is focussed on Kevlar-epoxy however materials such as CFRP are also being considered. The paper describes our most recent activities in relation to the implementation of advanced material modelling options in this area. These enable refined non-liner directional characteristics of composite materials to be modelled, in addition to the correct thermodynamic response under shock wave loading. The numerical work is backed by an extensive experimental programme covering a wide range of static and dynamic tests to facilitate derivation of model input data and to validate the predicted material response. Finally, the capability of the developing composite material model is discussed in relation to a hypervelocity impact problem.

Improved Short-Term Clock Prediction Method for Real-Time Positioning.

PubMed

Lv, Yifei; Dai, Zhiqiang; Zhao, Qile; Yang, Sheng; Zhou, Jinning; Liu, Jingnan

2017-06-06

The application of real-time precise point positioning (PPP) requires real-time precise orbit and clock products that should be predicted within a short time to compensate for the communication delay or data gap. Unlike orbit correction, clock correction is difficult to model and predict. The widely used linear model hardly fits long periodic trends with a small data set and exhibits significant accuracy degradation in real-time prediction when a large data set is used. This study proposes a new prediction model for maintaining short-term satellite clocks to meet the high-precision requirements of real-time clocks and provide clock extrapolation without interrupting the real-time data stream. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to analyze the linear prediction residuals of real-time clocks. The periodic terms obtained through FFT are adopted in the sliding window prediction to achieve a significant improvement in short-term prediction accuracy. This study also analyzes and compares the accuracy of short-term forecasts (less than 3 h) by using different length observations. Experimental results obtained from International GNSS Service (IGS) final products and our own real-time clocks show that the 3-h prediction accuracy is better than 0.85 ns. The new model can replace IGS ultra-rapid products in the application of real-time PPP. It is also found that there is a positive correlation between the prediction accuracy and the short-term stability of on-board clocks. Compared with the accuracy of the traditional linear model, the accuracy of the static PPP using the new model of the 2-h prediction clock in N, E, and U directions is improved by about 50%. Furthermore, the static PPP accuracy of 2-h clock products is better than 0.1 m. When an interruption occurs in the real-time model, the accuracy of the kinematic PPP solution using 1-h clock prediction product is better than 0.2 m, without significant accuracy degradation. This model is of practical significance because it solves the problems of interruption and delay in data broadcast in real-time clock estimation and can meet the requirements of real-time PPP.

A predictive model for diagnosing bipolar disorder based on the clinical characteristics of major depressive episodes in Chinese population.

PubMed

Gan, Zhaoyu; Diao, Feici; Wei, Qinling; Wu, Xiaoli; Cheng, Minfeng; Guan, Nianhong; Zhang, Ming; Zhang, Jinbei

2011-11-01

A correct timely diagnosis of bipolar depression remains a big challenge for clinicians. This study aimed to develop a clinical characteristic based model to predict the diagnosis of bipolar disorder among patients with current major depressive episodes. A prospective study was carried out on 344 patients with current major depressive episodes, with 268 completing 1-year follow-up. Data were collected through structured interviews. Univariate binary logistic regression was conducted to select potential predictive variables among 19 initial variables, and then multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the combination of risk factors and build a predictive model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted. Of 19 initial variables, 13 variables were preliminarily selected, and then forward stepwise exercise produced a final model consisting of 6 variables: age at first onset, maximum duration of depressive episodes, somatalgia, hypersomnia, diurnal variation of mood, irritability. The correct prediction rate of this model was 78% (95%CI: 75%-86%) and the area under the ROC curve was 0.85 (95%CI: 0.80-0.90). The cut-off point for age at first onset was 28.5 years old, while the cut-off point for maximum duration of depressive episode was 7.5 months. The limitations of this study include small sample size, relatively short follow-up period and lack of treatment information. Our predictive models based on six clinical characteristics of major depressive episodes prove to be robust and can help differentiate bipolar depression from unipolar depression. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Analysis Increments (AI) to Estimate and Correct Systematic Errors in the Global Forecast System (GFS) Online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, K.; Kalnay, E.; Carton, J.; Yang, F.

2017-12-01

Systematic forecast errors, arising from model deficiencies, form a significant portion of the total forecast error in weather prediction models like the Global Forecast System (GFS). While much effort has been expended to improve models, substantial model error remains. The aim here is to (i) estimate the model deficiencies in the GFS that lead to systematic forecast errors, (ii) implement an online correction (i.e., within the model) scheme to correct GFS following the methodology of Danforth et al. [2007] and Danforth and Kalnay [2008, GRL]. Analysis Increments represent the corrections that new observations make on, in this case, the 6-hr forecast in the analysis cycle. Model bias corrections are estimated from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6-hr, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012-2016, seasonal means of the 6-hr model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the sub-monthly analysis increments and consists primarily of diurnal and semidiurnal components, also requiring a low dimensional correction. Analysis increments in 2015 and 2016 are reduced over oceans, which is attributed to improvements in the specification of the SSTs. These results encourage application of online correction, as suggested by Danforth and Kalnay, for mean, seasonal and diurnal and semidiurnal model biases in GFS to reduce both systematic and random errors. As the error growth in the short-term is still linear, estimated model bias corrections can be added as a forcing term in the model tendency equation to correct online. Preliminary experiments with GFS, correcting temperature and specific humidity online show reduction in model bias in 6-hr forecast. This approach can then be used to guide and optimize the design of sub-grid scale physical parameterizations, more accurate discretization of the model dynamics, boundary conditions, radiative transfer codes, and other potential model improvements which can then replace the empirical correction scheme. The analysis increments also provide guidance in testing new physical parameterizations.

Application of fracture toughness scaling models to the ductile-to- brittle transition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Link, R.E.; Joyce, J.A.

1996-01-01

An experimental investigation of fracture toughness in the ductile-brittle transition range was conducted. A large number of ASTM A533, Grade B steel, bend and tension specimens with varying crack lengths were tested throughout the transition region. Cleavage fracture toughness scaling models were utilized to correct the data for the loss of constraint in short crack specimens and tension geometries. The toughness scaling models were effective in reducing the scatter in the data, but tended to over-correct the results for the short crack bend specimens. A proposed ASTM Test Practice for Fracture Toughness in the Transition Range, which employs a mastermore » curve concept, was applied to the results. The proposed master curve over predicted the fracture toughness in the mid-transition and a modified master curve was developed that more accurately modeled the transition behavior of the material. Finally, the modified master curve and the fracture toughness scaling models were combined to predict the as-measured fracture toughness of the short crack bend and the tension specimens. It was shown that when the scaling models over correct the data for loss of constraint, they can also lead to non-conservative estimates of the increase in toughness for low constraint geometries.« less

Unraveling past impacts of climate change and land management on historic peatland development using proxy-based reconstruction, monitoring data and process modeling.

PubMed

Heinemeyer, Andreas; Swindles, Graeme T

2018-05-08

Peatlands represent globally significant soil carbon stores that have been accumulating for millennia under water-logged conditions. However, deepening water-table depths (WTD) from climate change or human-induced drainage could stimulate decomposition resulting in peatlands turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Contemporary WTD ranges of testate amoebae (TA) are commonly used to predict past WTD in peatlands using quantitative transfer function models. Here we present, for the first time, a study comparing TA-based WTD reconstructions to instrumentally monitored WTD and hydrological model predictions using the MILLENNIA peatland model to examine past peatland responses to climate change and land management. Although there was very good agreement between monitored and modeled WTD, TA-reconstructed water table was consistently deeper. Predictions from a larger European TA transfer function data set were wetter, but the overall directional fit to observed WTD was better for a TA transfer function based on data from northern England. We applied a regression-based offset correction to the reconstructed WTD for the validation period (1931-2010). We then predicted WTD using available climate records as MILLENNIA model input and compared the offset-corrected TA reconstruction to MILLENNIA WTD predictions over an extended period (1750-1931) with available climate reconstructions. Although the comparison revealed striking similarities in predicted overall WTD patterns, particularly for a recent drier period (1965-1995), there were clear periods when TA-based WTD predictions underestimated (i.e. drier during 1830-1930) and overestimated (i.e. wetter during 1760-1830) past WTD compared to MILLENNIA model predictions. Importantly, simulated grouse moor management scenarios may explain the drier TA WTD predictions, resulting in considerable model predicted carbon losses and reduced methane emissions, mainly due to drainage. This study demonstrates the value of a site-specific and combined data-model validation step toward using TA-derived moisture conditions to understand past climate-driven peatland development and carbon budgets alongside modeling likely management impacts. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anomalous Subsidence at the Ocean Continent Transition of the Gulf of Aden Rifted Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Leanne; Kusznir, Nick; Leroy, Sylvie

2013-04-01

It has been proposed that some rifted continental margins have anomalous subsidence and that at break-up they were elevated at shallower bathymetries than the isostatic response predicted by classical rift models (McKenzie, 1978). The existence of anomalous syn- or early-post break-up subsidence of this form would have important implications for our understanding of the geodynamics of continental break-up and sea-floor spreading initiation. We have investigated subsidence of the young rifted continental margin of the eastern Gulf of Aden, focussing on the western Oman margin (break-up age 17.6 Ma). Lucazeau et al. (2008) have found that the observed bathymetry here is approximately 1 km shallower than the predicted bathymetry. In order to examine the proposition of an anomalous early post break-up subsidence history of the Omani Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin, we have determined the subsidence of the oldest oceanic crust adjacent to the continent-ocean boundary (COB) using residual depth anomaly (RDA) analysis corrected for sediment loading and oceanic crustal thickness variation. RDAs corrected for sediment loading using flexural backstripping and decompaction have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries in order to identify anomalous subsidence of the Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions of Crosby and McKenzie (2009). Non-zero RDAs at the Omani Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin can be the result of non standard oceanic crustal thickness or the effect of mantle dynamic topography or a non-classical rift and break-up model. Oceanic crustal basement thicknesses from gravity inversion together with Airy isostasy have been used to predict a "synthetic" gravity RDA, in order to determine the RDA contribution from non-standard oceanic crustal thickness. Gravity inversion, used to determine crustal basement thickness, incorporates a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and uses sediment thicknesses from 2D seismic data. Reference Moho depths used in the gravity inversion have been calibrated against seismic refraction Moho depths. The difference between the sediment corrected RDA and the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA gives the component of the RDA which is not due to variations in oceanic crustal thickness. This RDA corrected for sediment loading and crustal thickness variation has a magnitude between +600m and +1000m (corresponding to anomalous uplift) and is comparable to that reported (+1km) by Lucazeau et al. (2008). We are unable to distinguish whether this anomalous uplift is due to mantle dynamic topography or anomalous subsidence with respect to classical rift model predictions.

Using GPS RO L1 data for calibration of the atmospheric path delay model for data reduction of the satellite altimetery observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, L.

2017-12-01

Processing satellite altimetry data requires the computation of path delayin the neutral atmosphere that is used for correcting ranges. The path delayis computed using numerical weather models and the accuracy of its computationdepends on the accuracy of numerical weather models. Accuracy of numerical modelsof numerical weather models over Antarctica and Greenland where there is a very sparse network of ground stations, is not well known. I used the dataset of GPS RO L1 data, computed predicted path delay for ROobservations using the numerical whether model GEOS-FPIT, formed the differences with observed path delay and used these differences for computationof the corrections to the a priori refractivity profile. These profiles wereused for computing corrections to the a priori zenith path delay. The systematic patter of these corrections are used for de-biasing of the the satellite altimetry results and for characterization of the systematic errorscaused by mismodeling atmosphere.

Correcting pervasive errors in RNA crystallography through enumerative structure prediction.

PubMed

Chou, Fang-Chieh; Sripakdeevong, Parin; Dibrov, Sergey M; Hermann, Thomas; Das, Rhiju

2013-01-01

Three-dimensional RNA models fitted into crystallographic density maps exhibit pervasive conformational ambiguities, geometric errors and steric clashes. To address these problems, we present enumerative real-space refinement assisted by electron density under Rosetta (ERRASER), coupled to Python-based hierarchical environment for integrated 'xtallography' (PHENIX) diffraction-based refinement. On 24 data sets, ERRASER automatically corrects the majority of MolProbity-assessed errors, improves the average R(free) factor, resolves functionally important discrepancies in noncanonical structure and refines low-resolution models to better match higher-resolution models.

An Excel Solver Exercise to Introduce Nonlinear Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Business students taking business analytics courses that have significant predictive modeling components, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, are introduced to nonlinear regression using application software that is a "black box" to the students. Thus, although correct models are…

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL TO FACILITATE RISK-BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION AT SUPERFUND SITES

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a numerical model to predict chemical concentrations in indoor environments resulting from soil vapor intrusion and volatilization from groundwater. The model, which integrates new and existing algorithms for chemical fate and transport, was originally...

CodingQuarry: highly accurate hidden Markov model gene prediction in fungal genomes using RNA-seq transcripts.

PubMed

Testa, Alison C; Hane, James K; Ellwood, Simon R; Oliver, Richard P

2015-03-11

The impact of gene annotation quality on functional and comparative genomics makes gene prediction an important process, particularly in non-model species, including many fungi. Sets of homologous protein sequences are rarely complete with respect to the fungal species of interest and are often small or unreliable, especially when closely related species have not been sequenced or annotated in detail. In these cases, protein homology-based evidence fails to correctly annotate many genes, or significantly improve ab initio predictions. Generalised hidden Markov models (GHMM) have proven to be invaluable tools in gene annotation and, recently, RNA-seq has emerged as a cost-effective means to significantly improve the quality of automated gene annotation. As these methods do not require sets of homologous proteins, improving gene prediction from these resources is of benefit to fungal researchers. While many pipelines now incorporate RNA-seq data in training GHMMs, there has been relatively little investigation into additionally combining RNA-seq data at the point of prediction, and room for improvement in this area motivates this study. CodingQuarry is a highly accurate, self-training GHMM fungal gene predictor designed to work with assembled, aligned RNA-seq transcripts. RNA-seq data informs annotations both during gene-model training and in prediction. Our approach capitalises on the high quality of fungal transcript assemblies by incorporating predictions made directly from transcript sequences. Correct predictions are made despite transcript assembly problems, including those caused by overlap between the transcripts of adjacent gene loci. Stringent benchmarking against high-confidence annotation subsets showed CodingQuarry predicted 91.3% of Schizosaccharomyces pombe genes and 90.4% of Saccharomyces cerevisiae genes perfectly. These results are 4-5% better than those of AUGUSTUS, the next best performing RNA-seq driven gene predictor tested. Comparisons against whole genome Sc. pombe and S. cerevisiae annotations further substantiate a 4-5% improvement in the number of correctly predicted genes. We demonstrate the success of a novel method of incorporating RNA-seq data into GHMM fungal gene prediction. This shows that a high quality annotation can be achieved without relying on protein homology or a training set of genes. CodingQuarry is freely available ( https://sourceforge.net/projects/codingquarry/ ), and suitable for incorporation into genome annotation pipelines.

Numerical analysis of hypersonic turbulent film cooling flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Y. S.; Chen, C. P.; Wei, H.

1992-01-01

As a building block, numerical capabilities for predicting heat flux and turbulent flowfields of hypersonic vehicles require extensive model validations. Computational procedures for calculating turbulent flows and heat fluxes for supersonic film cooling with parallel slot injections are described in this study. Two injectant mass flow rates with matched and unmatched pressure conditions using the database of Holden et al. (1990) are considered. To avoid uncertainties associated with the boundary conditions in testing turbulence models, detailed three-dimensional flowfields of the injection nozzle were calculated. Two computational fluid dynamics codes, GASP and FDNS, with the algebraic Baldwin-Lomax and k-epsilon models with compressibility corrections were used. It was found that the B-L model which resolves near-wall viscous sublayer is very sensitive to the inlet boundary conditions at the nozzle exit face. The k-epsilon models with improved wall functions are less sensitive to the inlet boundary conditions. The testings show that compressibility corrections are necessary for the k-epsilon model to realistically predict the heat fluxes of the hypersonic film cooling problems.

An improved method for predicting brittleness of rocks via well logs in tight oil reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhenlin; Sun, Ting; Feng, Cheng; Wang, Wei; Han, Chuang

2018-06-01

There can be no industrial oil production in tight oil reservoirs until fracturing is undertaken. Under such conditions, the brittleness of the rocks is a very important factor. However, it has so far been difficult to predict. In this paper, the selected study area is the tight oil reservoirs in Lucaogou formation, Permian, Jimusaer sag, Junggar basin. According to the transformation of dynamic and static rock mechanics parameters and the correction of confining pressure, an improved method is proposed for quantitatively predicting the brittleness of rocks via well logs in tight oil reservoirs. First, 19 typical tight oil core samples are selected in the study area. Their static Young’s modulus, static Poisson’s ratio and petrophysical parameters are measured. In addition, the static brittleness indices of four other tight oil cores are measured under different confining pressure conditions. Second, the dynamic Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio and brittleness index are calculated using the compressional and shear wave velocity. With combination of the measured and calculated results, the transformation model of dynamic and static brittleness index is built based on the influence of porosity and clay content. The comparison of the predicted brittleness indices and measured results shows that the model has high accuracy. Third, on the basis of the experimental data under different confining pressure conditions, the amplifying factor of brittleness index is proposed to correct for the influence of confining pressure on the brittleness index. Finally, the above improved models are applied to formation evaluation via well logs. Compared with the results before correction, the results of the improved models agree better with the experimental data, which indicates that the improved models have better application effects. The brittleness index prediction method of tight oil reservoirs is improved in this research. It is of great importance in the optimization of fracturing layer and fracturing construction schemes and the improvement of oil recovery.

Correction to the gas phase pressure term in the continuum model for partially saturated granular media presented by Pietruszczak and co-workers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iveson, Simon M.

2003-06-01

Pietruszczak and coworkers (Internat. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech. 1994; 18(2):93-105; Comput. Geotech. 1991; 12( ):55-71) have presented a continuum-based model for predicting the dynamic mechanical response of partially saturated granular media with viscous interstitial liquids. In their model they assume that the gas phase is distributed uniformly throughout the medium as discrete spherical air bubbles occupying the voids between the particles. However, their derivation of the air pressure inside these gas bubbles is inconsistent with their stated assumptions. In addition the resultant dependence of gas pressure on liquid saturation lies outside of the plausible range of possible values for discrete air bubbles. This results in an over-prediction of the average bulk modulus of the void phase. Corrected equations are presented.

A comparative study of two codes with an improved two-equation turbulence model for predicting jet plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, L.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.

1992-01-01

Compressible jet plumes were studied using a two-equation turbulence model. A space marching procedure based on an upwind numerical scheme was used to solve the governing equations and turbulence transport equations. The computed results indicate that extending the space marching procedure for solving supersonic/subsonic mixing problems can be stable, efficient and accurate. Moreover, a newly developed correction for compressible dissipation has been verified in fully expanded and underexpanded jet plumes. For a sonic jet plume, no improvement in results over the standard two-equation model was seen. However for a supersonic jet plume, the correction due to compressible dissipation successfully predicted the reduced spreading rate of the jet compared to the sonic case. The computed results were generally in good agreement with the experimental data.

Combining Statistics and Physics to Improve Climate Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutmann, E. D.; Eidhammer, T.; Arnold, J.; Nowak, K.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Getting useful information from climate models is an ongoing problem that has plagued climate science and hydrologic prediction for decades. While it is possible to develop statistical corrections for climate models that mimic current climate almost perfectly, this does not necessarily guarantee that future changes are portrayed correctly. In contrast, convection permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have begun to provide an excellent representation of the regional climate system purely from first principles, providing greater confidence in their change signal. However, the computational cost of such RCMs prohibits the generation of ensembles of simulations or long time periods, thus limiting their applicability for hydrologic applications. Here we discuss a new approach combining statistical corrections with physical relationships for a modest computational cost. We have developed the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) to provide a climate and weather downscaling option that is based primarily on physics for a fraction of the computational requirements of a traditional regional climate model. ICAR also enables the incorporation of statistical adjustments directly within the model. We demonstrate that applying even simple corrections to precipitation while the model is running can improve the simulation of land atmosphere feedbacks in ICAR. For example, by incorporating statistical corrections earlier in the modeling chain, we permit the model physics to better represent the effect of mountain snowpack on air temperature changes.

On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

Baseline Correction of Diffuse Reflection Near-Infrared Spectra Using Searching Region Standard Normal Variate (SRSNV).

PubMed

Genkawa, Takuma; Shinzawa, Hideyuki; Kato, Hideaki; Ishikawa, Daitaro; Murayama, Kodai; Komiyama, Makoto; Ozaki, Yukihiro

2015-12-01

An alternative baseline correction method for diffuse reflection near-infrared (NIR) spectra, searching region standard normal variate (SRSNV), was proposed. Standard normal variate (SNV) is an effective pretreatment method for baseline correction of diffuse reflection NIR spectra of powder and granular samples; however, its baseline correction performance depends on the NIR region used for SNV calculation. To search for an optimal NIR region for baseline correction using SNV, SRSNV employs moving window partial least squares regression (MWPLSR), and an optimal NIR region is identified based on the root mean square error (RMSE) of cross-validation of the partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with the first latent variable (LV). The performance of SRSNV was evaluated using diffuse reflection NIR spectra of mixture samples consisting of wheat flour and granular glucose (0-100% glucose at 5% intervals). From the obtained NIR spectra of the mixture in the 10 000-4000 cm(-1) region at 4 cm intervals (1501 spectral channels), a series of spectral windows consisting of 80 spectral channels was constructed, and then SNV spectra were calculated for each spectral window. Using these SNV spectra, a series of PLSR models with the first LV for glucose concentration was built. A plot of RMSE versus the spectral window position obtained using the PLSR models revealed that the 8680–8364 cm(-1) region was optimal for baseline correction using SNV. In the SNV spectra calculated using the 8680–8364 cm(-1) region (SRSNV spectra), a remarkable relative intensity change between a band due to wheat flour at 8500 cm(-1) and that due to glucose at 8364 cm(-1) was observed owing to successful baseline correction using SNV. A PLSR model with the first LV based on the SRSNV spectra yielded a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.999 and an RMSE of 0.70%, while a PLSR model with three LVs based on SNV spectra calculated in the full spectral region gave an R2 of 0.995 and an RMSE of 2.29%. Additional evaluation of SRSNV was carried out using diffuse reflection NIR spectra of marzipan and corn samples, and PLSR models based on SRSNV spectra showed good prediction results. These evaluation results indicate that SRSNV is effective in baseline correction of diffuse reflection NIR spectra and provides regression models with good prediction accuracy.

Macro-microscopic mass formulae and nuclear mass predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, G.; Guilbaud, M.; Onillon, A.

2010-12-01

Different mass formulae derived from the liquid drop model and the pairing and shell energies of the Thomas-Fermi model have been studied and compared. They include or not the diffuseness correction to the Coulomb energy, the charge exchange correction term, the curvature energy, different forms of the Wigner term and powers of the relative neutron excess I=(N-Z)/A. Their coefficients have been determined by a least square fitting procedure to 2027 experimental atomic masses (G. Audi et al. (2003) [1]). The Coulomb diffuseness correction Z/A term or the charge exchange correction Z/A term plays the main role to improve the accuracy of the mass formula. The Wigner term and the curvature energy can also be used separately but their coefficients are very unstable. The different fits lead to a surface energy coefficient of around 17-18 MeV. A large equivalent rms radius ( r=1.22-1.24 fm) or a shorter central radius may be used. An rms deviation of 0.54 MeV can be reached between the experimental and theoretical masses. The remaining differences come probably mainly from the determination of the shell and pairing energies. Mass predictions of selected expressions have been compared to 161 new experimental masses and the correct agreement allows to provide extrapolations to masses of 656 selected exotic nuclei.

Changing predictions, stable recognition: Children's representations of downward incline motion.

PubMed

Hast, Michael; Howe, Christine

2017-11-01

Various studies to-date have demonstrated children hold ill-conceived expressed beliefs about the physical world such as that one ball will fall faster than another because it is heavier. At the same time, they also demonstrate accurate recognition of dynamic events. How these representations relate is still unresolved. This study examined 5- to 11-year-olds' (N = 130) predictions and recognition of motion down inclines. Predictions were typically in error, matching previous work, but children largely recognized correct events as correct and rejected incorrect ones. The results also demonstrate while predictions change with increasing age, recognition shows signs of stability. The findings provide further support for a hybrid model of object representations and argue in favour of stable core cognition existing alongside developmental changes. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Children's predictions of physical events show limitations in accuracy Their recognition of such events suggests children may use different knowledge sources in their reasoning What the present study adds? Predictions fluctuate more strongly than recognition, suggesting stable core cognition But recognition also shows some fluctuation, arguing for a hybrid model of knowledge representation. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Multi-Target Mining of Alzheimer Disease Proteome with Hansch's QSBR-Perturbation Theory and Experimental-Theoretic Study of New Thiophene Isosters of Rasagiline.

PubMed

Abeijon, Paula; Garcia-Mera, Xerardo; Caamano, Olga; Yanez, Matilde; Lopez-Castro, Edgar; Romero-Duran, Francisco J; Gonzalez-Diaz, Humberto

2017-01-01

Hansch's model is a classic approach to Quantitative Structure-Binding Relationships (QSBR) problems in Pharmacology and Medicinal Chemistry. Hansch QSAR equations are used as input parameters of electronic structure and lipophilicity. In this work, we perform a review on Hansch's analysis. We also developed a new type of PT-QSBR Hansch's model based on Perturbation Theory (PT) and QSBR approach for a large number of drugs reported in CheMBL. The targets are proteins expressed by the Hippocampus region of the brain of Alzheimer Disease (AD) patients. The model predicted correctly 49312 out of 53783 negative perturbations (Specificity = 91.7%) and 16197 out of 21245 positive perturbations (Sensitivity = 76.2%) in training series. The model also predicted correctly 49312/53783 (91.7%) and 16197/21245 (76.2%) negative or positive perturbations in external validation series. We applied our model in theoretical-experimental studies of organic synthesis, pharmacological assay, and prediction of unmeasured results for a series of compounds similar to Rasagiline (compound of reference) with potential neuroprotection effect. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Lung Function: Development and Validation in the UK Biobank Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Johansson, Mattias; Brennan, Paul

2017-03-10

Purpose Several lung cancer risk prediction models have been developed, but none to date have assessed the predictive ability of lung function in a population-based cohort. We sought to develop and internally validate a model incorporating lung function using data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Methods This analysis included 502,321 participants without a previous diagnosis of lung cancer, predominantly between 40 and 70 years of age. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate the 2-year probability of lung cancer, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models included predictors previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk, including sex, variables related to smoking history and nicotine addiction, medical history, family history of lung cancer, and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]). Results During accumulated follow-up of 1,469,518 person-years, there were 738 lung cancer diagnoses. A model incorporating all predictors had excellent discrimination (concordance (c)-statistic [95% CI] = 0.85 [0.82 to 0.87]). Internal validation suggested that the model will discriminate well when applied to new data (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.84). The full model, including FEV1, also had modestly superior discriminatory power than one that was designed solely on the basis of questionnaire variables (c-statistic = 0.84 [0.82 to 0.86]; optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.83; p FEV1 = 3.4 × 10 -13 ). The full model had better discrimination than standard lung cancer screening eligibility criteria (c-statistic = 0.66 [0.64 to 0.69]). Conclusion A risk prediction model that includes lung function has strong predictive ability, which could improve eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening programs.

Electrode effects in dielectric spectroscopy of colloidal suspensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirkel, P. A.; van der Ploeg, J. P. M.; Koper, G. J. M.

1997-02-01

We present a simple model to account for electrode polarization in colloidal suspensions. Apart from correctly predicting the ω {-3}/{2} dependence for the dielectric permittivity at low frequencies ω, the model provides an explicit dependence of the effect on electrode spacing. The predictions are tested for the sodium bis(2-ethylhexyl) sulfosuccinate (AOT) water-in-oil microemulsion with iso-octane as continuous phase. In particular, the dependence of electrode polarization effects on electrode spacing has been measured and is found to be in accordance with the model prediction. Methods to reduce or account for electrode polarization are briefly discussed.

Optimal and Adaptive Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Haipeng

2016-01-01

Online learning is one of the most important and well-established machine learning models. Generally speaking, the goal of online learning is to make a sequence of accurate predictions "on the fly," given some information of the correct answers to previous prediction tasks. Online learning has been extensively studied in recent years,…

Control of Boundary Layers for Aero-optical Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-23

range of subsonic and supersonic Mach numbers was developed and shown to correctly predict experimentally-observed reductions. Heating the wall allows...40 3.3 Extension to supersonic speeds...boundary layers at supersonic speeds. Comparing the model prediction to the experimental results, it was speculated that while the pressure effects can

Synchronizing movements with the metronome: nonlinear error correction and unstable periodic orbits.

PubMed

Engbert, Ralf; Krampe, Ralf Th; Kurths, Jürgen; Kliegl, Reinhold

2002-02-01

The control of human hand movements is investigated in a simple synchronization task. We propose and analyze a stochastic model based on nonlinear error correction; a mechanism which implies the existence of unstable periodic orbits. This prediction is tested in an experiment with human subjects. We find that our experimental data are in good agreement with numerical simulations of our theoretical model. These results suggest that feedback control of the human motor systems shows nonlinear behavior. Copyright 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).

Modeling winter wheat phenological responses to water deficits in the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM) component of the spatially distributed Agricultural Ecosystem Services (AgES) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurately predicting phenology in crop simulation models is critical for correctly simulating crop production. While extensive work in modeling phenology has focused on the temperature response function (resulting in robust phenology models), limited work on quantifying the phenological responses t...

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Neural Activity from Pairwise Correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marre, O.; El Boustani, S.; Fregnac, Y.

We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatiotemporal patterns significantly better than Ising models only based on spatial correlations. This increase of predictability was also observed on experimental data recorded in parietal cortex during slow-wave sleep. This approach can also be used to generate surrogatesmore » that reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of a given data set.« less

High Energy Phenomenology - Proceedings of the Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, Miguel A.; Huerta, Rodrigo

1992-06-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Preface * Radiative Corrections in the Electroweak Standard Model * Introduction * The Electroweak Standard Model and its Renormalization * Basic Properties of the Standard Model * Renormalization of the Standard Model * Calculation of Radiative Corrections * One-Loop Integrals * Corrected Matrix Elements and Cross Sections * Photonic Corrections * Physical Applications and Results * Parameter Relations in Higher Orders * Decay Widths * Z Physics * W-Pair Production * Higgs Production in e+e- Annihilation * Conclusion * Appendix: Feynman Rules * References * Hadron Collider Physics * Introduction * e+ e- Annihilation * The Standard Model * The Drell-Yan Process in Hadronic Collisions * The Structure Functions * Hadronic Z Production * Hadronic W Production * The Transverse Mass * Quark Decays of W's * Weak Interactions * Neutrino Scattering * Weak Neutral Currents * The Standard Model * Symmetries and Lagrangians * Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking * The Standard Model Again * Experimental Situation * Appendix * References * Lectures on Heavy Quark Effective Theory * Introduction * Motivation * Physical Intuition * The Heavy Quark Effective Theory * The Effective Lagrangian and its Feynman Rules * What is an Effective Theory? * The Effective Theory Beyond Tree Level * External Currents * Leading-Logs or No Leading-Logs; A digression * Sample Calculations * Symmetries * Flavor-SU(N) * Spin-SU(2) * Spectrum * Strong Transitions * Covariant Representation of States * Meson Decay Constants * Preliminaries * Formal Derivation: Green Functions * Quick and Dirty Derivation: States in the HQET * Vector Meson Decay Constant * Corrections * Form Factors in overline {B} rightarrow Deν and overline {B} rightarrow D ^ast {e}ν * Preliminaries * Form Factors in the HQET * Form Factors in order αs * 1/MQ * The Correcting Lagrangian * The Corrected Currents * Corrections of order mc/mb * Corrections of order overline {Λ} /m_c and overline {Λ} /m_c * Conclusions and More * Inclusive Semileptonic Decay Rates * overline {B} rightarrow Π {e} overline {ν} and overline {B} rightarrow Π {e} overline {ν} * Rare overline {B} decays * e^+ e^- rightarrow {B} overline {B} * λb → λcDs vs λb → λc D*s * Factorization * A Last Word (or Two) * References * An Overview of Nonleptonic Decays of B, D, K Mesons and CP-Noninvariance * Generic Ways to Study Nonleptonic Decays and CP-Noninvariance * The Quark-Diagram Scheme * Invariants of the CKM and the Universal Decay-Amplitude CP-Noninvariance Factor Xcp * Implications of Measuring Partial-Decay-Rate Asymmetries in B± Decays and in Neutral B Decays such as B0, overline {B}^{0} rightarrow K_sJ/{Ψ} * Nonleptonic Decays of D Mesons: From the CKM Non- and Singly-Suppressed Decays to the Predictions of Doubly-Suppressed Decays * Charm Meson D Decays into Vector and Pseudoscalar Bosons, D → VP * Charm Meson Decays into Pseudoscalar-Pseudoscalar Mesons, D → PP * Charm Meson Decays into Vector-Vector Mesons, D → VV * Nonleptonic Decays of B Mesons * The CKM Non-Suppressed Decays * Interesting Features in the Rare B Meson Decays * CP-Noninvariance in K Meson Decays * Implications of Measurement of Re( ɛ'/ɛ) * Other Important Searches for Decay-Amplitude CP Noninvariance in Strange Particles * Some Generic Properties of Decay-Amplitude CP-Noninvariance * References * Top Quark Physics * Introduction * The Top Quark Exists * Upper Limit on Mt * Other Constraints on Mt * Production of Top * Hadron Colliders * SM Top Decays * Detecting SM Tops-Signatures * Model-Independent Lower Limit on Mt * Determining the Charge of a New Heavy Quark * When the Top Quark is Detected * Top Decays - A Window to New Physics? * - Decay to Supersymmetric Partners * - Decay to Charged Higgs Bosons * - Flavor-Changing Neutral Current Decays * - Other possibilities * New Information Once Top is Observed * Studying the Top Decays Couplings * The Top Quark at N LC * Measuring Mt - How Well? * Sharper Predictions for Many Observables * Measuring Vts, Vtd, Vtb and Γ(t → bW) * Top Polarization Predictions - A New Observable * Testing QCD Polarization Predictions * Correlation of Top Spin Direction with Final b, l+ Directions and Top Mass Measurements * Measuring P_{pm} ^ t * General Top Couplings * One Loop Corrections to Top Decay * Decay Helicity Amplitudes * New Sources of CP Violation at the Weak Scale? * The Effect of Top Loops on Higgs Masses * Is t → Wb a Background for Studying TeV WW Interactions? * Predictions for Mt * Final Remarks * References * High Precision Radiative Corrections in the Semileptonic Decays of Hyperons * On the Decay W± → P±γ * The Decay H0 → γγ and Physics Beyond the Standard Model * Neutrino Masses and Double Beta Decay * Neutrino Oscillations in a Medium: Analytic Calculation of Nonadiabatic Transitions * Gauge-Invariant Perturbation Theory Near a Gauge Resonance * Lower Dimensional Divergences in Gauge Theories * Strange Stars: Which is the Ground State of QCD at Finite Baryon Number? * Experimental Signatures of the SU(5)c Color Model * Generalized Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics * Chern-Simons Theories in 2 + 1 Dimensions * List of participants

Data Prediction for Public Events in Professional Domains Based on Improved RNN- LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bonan; Fan, Chunxiao; Wu, Yuexin; Sun, Juanjuan

2018-02-01

The traditional data services of prediction for emergency or non-periodic events usually cannot generate satisfying result or fulfill the correct prediction purpose. However, these events are influenced by external causes, which mean certain a priori information of these events generally can be collected through the Internet. This paper studied the above problems and proposed an improved model—LSTM (Long Short-term Memory) dynamic prediction and a priori information sequence generation model by combining RNN-LSTM and public events a priori information. In prediction tasks, the model is qualified for determining trends, and its accuracy also is validated. This model generates a better performance and prediction results than the previous one. Using a priori information can increase the accuracy of prediction; LSTM can better adapt to the changes of time sequence; LSTM can be widely applied to the same type of prediction tasks, and other prediction tasks related to time sequence.

Permutation importance: a corrected feature importance measure.

PubMed

Altmann, André; Toloşi, Laura; Sander, Oliver; Lengauer, Thomas

2010-05-15

In life sciences, interpretability of machine learning models is as important as their prediction accuracy. Linear models are probably the most frequently used methods for assessing feature relevance, despite their relative inflexibility. However, in the past years effective estimators of feature relevance have been derived for highly complex or non-parametric models such as support vector machines and RandomForest (RF) models. Recently, it has been observed that RF models are biased in such a way that categorical variables with a large number of categories are preferred. In this work, we introduce a heuristic for normalizing feature importance measures that can correct the feature importance bias. The method is based on repeated permutations of the outcome vector for estimating the distribution of measured importance for each variable in a non-informative setting. The P-value of the observed importance provides a corrected measure of feature importance. We apply our method to simulated data and demonstrate that (i) non-informative predictors do not receive significant P-values, (ii) informative variables can successfully be recovered among non-informative variables and (iii) P-values computed with permutation importance (PIMP) are very helpful for deciding the significance of variables, and therefore improve model interpretability. Furthermore, PIMP was used to correct RF-based importance measures for two real-world case studies. We propose an improved RF model that uses the significant variables with respect to the PIMP measure and show that its prediction accuracy is superior to that of other existing models. R code for the method presented in this article is available at http://www.mpi-inf.mpg.de/ approximately altmann/download/PIMP.R CONTACT: altmann@mpi-inf.mpg.de, laura.tolosi@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A first-principles examination of the asymmetric induction model in the binap/Rh(I)-catalysed 1,4-addition of phenylboronic acid to cyclic enones by density functional theory calculations.

PubMed

Qin, Hua-Li; Chen, Xiao-Qing; Huang, Yi-Zhen; Kantchev, Eric Assen B

2014-09-26

First-principles modelling of the diastereomeric transition states in the enantiodiscrimination stage of the catalytic cycle can reveal intimate details about the mechanism of enantioselection. This information can be invaluable for further improvement of the catalytic protocols by rational design. Herein, we present a density functional theory (IEFPCM/PBE0/DGDZVP level of theory) modelling of the carborhodation step for the asymmetric 1,4-arylation of cyclic α,β-unsaturated ketones mediated by a [(binap)Rh(I)] catalyst. The calculations completely support the older, qualitative, pictorial model predicting the sense of the asymmetric induction for both the chelating diphosphane (binap) and the more recent chiral diene (Phbod) ligands, while also permitting quantification of the enantiomeric excess (ee). The effect of dispersion interaction correction and basis sets has been also investigated. Dispersion-corrected functionals and solvation models significantly improve the predicted ee values. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Stall flutter analysis of propfans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, T. S. R.

1988-01-01

Three semi-empirical aerodynamic stall models are compared with respect to their lift and moment hysteresis loop prediction, limit cycle behavior, easy implementation, and feasibility in developing the parameters required for stall flutter prediction of advanced turbines. For the comparison of aeroelastic response prediction including stall, a typical section model and a plate structural model are considered. The response analysis includes both plunging and pitching motions of the blades. In model A, a correction of the angle of attack is applied when the angle of attack exceeds the static stall angle. In model B, a synthesis procedure is used for angles of attack above static stall angles, and the time history effects are accounted for through the Wagner function.

Stagnation Point Nonequilibrium Radiative Heating and the Influence of Energy Exchange Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartung, Lin C.; Mitcheltree, Robert A.; Gnoffo, Peter A.

1991-01-01

A nonequilibrium radiative heating prediction method has been used to evaluate several energy exchange models used in nonequilibrium computational fluid dynamics methods. The radiative heating measurements from the FIRE II flight experiment supply an experimental benchmark against which different formulations for these exchange models can be judged. The models which predict the lowest radiative heating are found to give the best agreement with the flight data. Examination of the spectral distribution of radiation indicates that despite close agreement of the total radiation, many of the models examined predict excessive molecular radiation. It is suggested that a study of the nonequilibrium chemical kinetics may lead to a correction for this problem.

Positioning performance of the NTCM model driven by GPS Klobuchar model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoque, Mohammed Mainul; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens

2018-03-01

Users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) utilize the Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA) also known as Klobuchar model for correcting ionospheric signal delay or range error. Recently, we developed an ionosphere correction algorithm called NTCM-Klobpar model for single frequency GNSS applications. The model is driven by a parameter computed from GPS Klobuchar model and consecutively can be used instead of the GPS Klobuchar model for ionospheric corrections. In the presented work we compare the positioning solutions obtained using NTCM-Klobpar with those using the Klobuchar model. Our investigation using worldwide ground GPS data from a quiet and a perturbed ionospheric and geomagnetic activity period of 17 days each shows that the 24-hour prediction performance of the NTCM-Klobpar is better than the GPS Klobuchar model in global average. The root mean squared deviation of the 3D position errors are found to be about 0.24 and 0.45 m less for the NTCM-Klobpar compared to the GPS Klobuchar model during quiet and perturbed condition, respectively. The presented algorithm has the potential to continuously improve the accuracy of GPS single frequency mass market devices with only little software modification.

Docking and scoring protein interactions: CAPRI 2009.

PubMed

Lensink, Marc F; Wodak, Shoshana J

2010-11-15

Protein docking algorithms are assessed by evaluating blind predictions performed during 2007-2009 in Rounds 13-19 of the community-wide experiment on critical assessment of predicted interactions (CAPRI). We evaluated the ability of these algorithms to sample docking poses and to single out specific association modes in 14 targets, representing 11 distinct protein complexes. These complexes play important biological roles in RNA maturation, G-protein signal processing, and enzyme inhibition and function. One target involved protein-RNA interactions not previously considered in CAPRI, several others were hetero-oligomers, or featured multiple interfaces between the same protein pair. For most targets, predictions started from the experimentally determined structures of the free (unbound) components, or from models built from known structures of related or similar proteins. To succeed they therefore needed to account for conformational changes and model inaccuracies. In total, 64 groups and 12 web-servers submitted docking predictions of which 4420 were evaluated. Overall our assessment reveals that 67% of the groups, more than ever before, produced acceptable models or better for at least one target, with many groups submitting multiple high- and medium-accuracy models for two to six targets. Forty-one groups including four web-servers participated in the scoring experiment with 1296 evaluated models. Scoring predictions also show signs of progress evidenced from the large proportion of correct models submitted. But singling out the best models remains a challenge, which also adversely affects the ability to correctly rank docking models. With the increased interest in translating abstract protein interaction networks into realistic models of protein assemblies, the growing CAPRI community is actively developing more efficient and reliable docking and scoring methods for everyone to use. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Calibration and prediction of removal function in magnetorheological finishing.

PubMed

Dai, Yifan; Song, Ci; Peng, Xiaoqiang; Shi, Feng

2010-01-20

A calibrated and predictive model of the removal function has been established based on the analysis of a magnetorheological finishing (MRF) process. By introducing an efficiency coefficient of the removal function, the model can be used to calibrate the removal function in a MRF figuring process and to accurately predict the removal function of a workpiece to be polished whose material is different from the spot part. Its correctness and feasibility have been validated by simulations. Furthermore, applying this model to the MRF figuring experiments, the efficiency coefficient of the removal function can be identified accurately to make the MRF figuring process deterministic and controllable. Therefore, all the results indicate that the calibrated and predictive model of the removal function can improve the finishing determinacy and increase the model applicability in a MRF process.

Assessing the role of Hartree-Fock exchange, correlation energy and long range corrections in evaluating ionization potential, and electron affinity in density functional theory.

PubMed

Vikramaditya, Talapunur; Lin, Shiang-Tai

2017-06-05

Accurate determination of ionization potentials (IPs), electron affinities (EAs), fundamental gaps (FGs), and HOMO, LUMO energy levels of organic molecules play an important role in modeling and predicting the efficiencies of organic photovoltaics, OLEDs etc. In this work, we investigate the effects of Hartree Fock (HF) Exchange, correlation energy, and long range corrections in predicting IP and EA in Hybrid Functionals. We observe increase in percentage of HF exchange results in increase of IPs and decrease in EAs. Contrary to the general expectations inclusion of both HF exchange and correlation energy (from the second order perturbation theory MP2) leads to poor prediction. Range separated Hybrid Functionals are found to be more reliable among various DFT Functionals investigated. DFT Functionals predict accurate IPs whereas post HF methods predict accurate EAs. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SSDA code to apply data assimilation in soil water flow modeling: Documentation and user manual

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil water flow models are based on simplified assumptions about the mechanisms, processes, and parameters of water retention and flow. That causes errors in soil water flow model predictions. Data assimilation (DA) with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) corrects modeling results based on measured s...

Plant traits determine forest flammability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zylstra, Philip; Bradstock, Ross

2016-04-01

Carbon and nutrient cycles in forest ecosystems are influenced by their inherent flammability - a property determined by the traits of the component plant species that form the fuel and influence the micro climate of a fire. In the absence of a model capable of explaining the complexity of such a system however, flammability is frequently represented by simple metrics such as surface fuel load. The implications of modelling fire - flammability feedbacks using surface fuel load were examined and compared to a biophysical, mechanistic model (Forest Flammability Model) that incorporates the influence of structural plant traits (e.g. crown shape and spacing) and leaf traits (e.g. thickness, dimensions and moisture). Fuels burn with values of combustibility modelled from leaf traits, transferring convective heat along vectors defined by flame angle and with plume temperatures that decrease with distance from the flame. Flames are re-calculated in one-second time-steps, with new leaves within the plant, neighbouring plants or higher strata ignited when the modelled time to ignition is reached, and other leaves extinguishing when their modelled flame duration is exceeded. The relative influence of surface fuels, vegetation structure and plant leaf traits were examined by comparing flame heights modelled using three treatments that successively added these components within the FFM. Validation was performed across a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under widely varying conditions during a forest fire in the Brindabella Ranges west of Canberra (ACT) in 2003. Flame heights ranged from 10 cm to more than 20 m, with an average of 4 m. When modelled from surface fuels alone, flame heights were on average 1.5m smaller than observed values, and were predicted within the error range 28% of the time. The addition of plant structure produced predicted flame heights that were on average 1.5m larger than observed, but were correct 53% of the time. The over-prediction in this case was the result of a small number of large errors, where higher strata such as forest canopy were modelled to ignite but did not. The addition of leaf traits largely addressed this error, so that the mean flame height over-prediction was reduced to 0.3m and the fully parameterised FFM gave correct predictions 62% of the time. When small (<1m) flames were excluded, the fully parameterised model correctly predicted flame heights 12 times more often than could be predicted using surface fuels alone, and the Mean Absolute Error was 4 times smaller. The inadequate consideration of plant traits within a mechanistic framework introduces significant error to forest fire behaviour modelling. The FFM provides a solution to this, and an avenue by which plant trait information can be used to better inform Global Vegetation Models and decision-making tools used to mitigate the impacts of fire.

Empirical Correction to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic for Structural Equation Modeling with Many Variables.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Tian, Yubin; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2015-06-01

Survey data typically contain many variables. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is commonly used in analyzing such data. The most widely used statistic for evaluating the adequacy of a SEM model is T ML, a slight modification to the likelihood ratio statistic. Under normality assumption, T ML approximately follows a chi-square distribution when the number of observations (N) is large and the number of items or variables (p) is small. However, in practice, p can be rather large while N is always limited due to not having enough participants. Even with a relatively large N, empirical results show that T ML rejects the correct model too often when p is not too small. Various corrections to T ML have been proposed, but they are mostly heuristic. Following the principle of the Bartlett correction, this paper proposes an empirical approach to correct T ML so that the mean of the resulting statistic approximately equals the degrees of freedom of the nominal chi-square distribution. Results show that empirically corrected statistics follow the nominal chi-square distribution much more closely than previously proposed corrections to T ML, and they control type I errors reasonably well whenever N ≥ max(50,2p). The formulations of the empirically corrected statistics are further used to predict type I errors of T ML as reported in the literature, and they perform well.

Evaluating approaches to find exon chains based on long reads.

PubMed

Kuosmanen, Anna; Norri, Tuukka; Mäkinen, Veli

2018-05-01

Transcript prediction can be modeled as a graph problem where exons are modeled as nodes and reads spanning two or more exons are modeled as exon chains. Pacific Biosciences third-generation sequencing technology produces significantly longer reads than earlier second-generation sequencing technologies, which gives valuable information about longer exon chains in a graph. However, with the high error rates of third-generation sequencing, aligning long reads correctly around the splice sites is a challenging task. Incorrect alignments lead to spurious nodes and arcs in the graph, which in turn lead to incorrect transcript predictions. We survey several approaches to find the exon chains corresponding to long reads in a splicing graph, and experimentally study the performance of these methods using simulated data to allow for sensitivity/precision analysis. Our experiments show that short reads from second-generation sequencing can be used to significantly improve exon chain correctness either by error-correcting the long reads before splicing graph creation, or by using them to create a splicing graph on which the long-read alignments are then projected. We also study the memory and time consumption of various modules, and show that accurate exon chains lead to significantly increased transcript prediction accuracy. The simulated data and in-house scripts used for this article are available at http://www.cs.helsinki.fi/group/gsa/exon-chains/exon-chains-bib.tar.bz2.

Predicting Soil Salinity with Vis–NIR Spectra after Removing the Effects of Soil Moisture Using External Parameter Orthogonalization

PubMed Central

Liu, Ya; Pan, Xianzhang; Wang, Changkun; Li, Yanli; Shi, Rongjie

2015-01-01

Robust models for predicting soil salinity that use visible and near-infrared (vis–NIR) reflectance spectroscopy are needed to better quantify soil salinity in agricultural fields. Currently available models are not sufficiently robust for variable soil moisture contents. Thus, we used external parameter orthogonalization (EPO), which effectively projects spectra onto the subspace orthogonal to unwanted variation, to remove the variations caused by an external factor, e.g., the influences of soil moisture on spectral reflectance. In this study, 570 spectra between 380 and 2400 nm were obtained from soils with various soil moisture contents and salt concentrations in the laboratory; 3 soil types × 10 salt concentrations × 19 soil moisture levels were used. To examine the effectiveness of EPO, we compared the partial least squares regression (PLSR) results established from spectra with and without EPO correction. The EPO method effectively removed the effects of moisture, and the accuracy and robustness of the soil salt contents (SSCs) prediction model, which was built using the EPO-corrected spectra under various soil moisture conditions, were significantly improved relative to the spectra without EPO correction. This study contributes to the removal of soil moisture effects from soil salinity estimations when using vis–NIR reflectance spectroscopy and can assist others in quantifying soil salinity in the future. PMID:26468645

Threshold corrections to dimension-six proton decay operators in SUSY SU(5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Takumi

2017-11-01

Proton decay is a significant phenomenon to verify supersymmetric grand unified theories (SUSY GUTs). To predict the proton lifetime precisely, it is important to include the next-leading order (NLO) corrections to the proton decay operators. In this talk, we have shown threshold corrections to the dimension-six proton decay operators in the minimal SUSY SU(5) GUT, its extended models with extra matters, and the missing partner SUSY SU(5) GUT. As a result, we have found that the threshold effects give rise to corrections a few percent in the minimal setup and below 5% in its extension with extra matters in spite of a large unified coupling at the GUT scale. On the other hand, in the missing partner model the correction to the proton decay rate is suppression about 60% due to a number of component fields of 75 and their mass splitting.

Station Correction Uncertainty in Multiple Event Location Algorithms and the Effect on Error Ellipses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson, Jason P.; Carlson, Deborah K.; Ortiz, Anne

Accurate location of seismic events is crucial for nuclear explosion monitoring. There are several sources of error in seismic location that must be taken into account to obtain high confidence results. Most location techniques account for uncertainties in the phase arrival times (measurement error) and the bias of the velocity model (model error), but they do not account for the uncertainty of the velocity model bias. By determining and incorporating this uncertainty in the location algorithm we seek to improve the accuracy of the calculated locations and uncertainty ellipses. In order to correct for deficiencies in the velocity model, itmore » is necessary to apply station specific corrections to the predicted arrival times. Both master event and multiple event location techniques assume that the station corrections are known perfectly, when in reality there is an uncertainty associated with these corrections. For multiple event location algorithms that calculate station corrections as part of the inversion, it is possible to determine the variance of the corrections. The variance can then be used to weight the arrivals associated with each station, thereby giving more influence to stations with consistent corrections. We have modified an existing multiple event location program (based on PMEL, Pavlis and Booker, 1983). We are exploring weighting arrivals with the inverse of the station correction standard deviation as well using the conditional probability of the calculated station corrections. This is in addition to the weighting already given to the measurement and modeling error terms. We re-locate a group of mining explosions that occurred at Black Thunder, Wyoming, and compare the results to those generated without accounting for station correction uncertainty.« less

Exchange-Hole Dipole Dispersion Model for Accurate Energy Ranking in Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction.

PubMed

Whittleton, Sarah R; Otero-de-la-Roza, A; Johnson, Erin R

2017-02-14

Accurate energy ranking is a key facet to the problem of first-principles crystal-structure prediction (CSP) of molecular crystals. This work presents a systematic assessment of B86bPBE-XDM, a semilocal density functional combined with the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) dispersion model, for energy ranking using 14 compounds from the first five CSP blind tests. Specifically, the set of crystals studied comprises 11 rigid, planar compounds and 3 co-crystals. The experimental structure was correctly identified as the lowest in lattice energy for 12 of the 14 total crystals. One of the exceptions is 4-hydroxythiophene-2-carbonitrile, for which the experimental structure was correctly identified once a quasi-harmonic estimate of the vibrational free-energy contribution was included, evidencing the occasional importance of thermal corrections for accurate energy ranking. The other exception is an organic salt, where charge-transfer error (also called delocalization error) is expected to cause the base density functional to be unreliable. Provided the choice of base density functional is appropriate and an estimate of temperature effects is used, XDM-corrected density-functional theory is highly reliable for the energetic ranking of competing crystal structures.

Simultaneous statistical bias correction of multiplePM2.5 species from a regional photochemical grid model

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years environmental epidemiologists have begun utilizing regionalscale air quality computer models to predict ambient air pollution concentrations in health studies instead of or in addition to monitoring data from central sites. The advantages of using such models i...

Smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter for joint state-parameter estimation: Applications in reservoir characterization and CO2 storage monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. J.; Kokkinaki, Amalia; Darve, Eric F.; Kitanidis, Peter K.

2017-08-01

The operation of most engineered hydrogeological systems relies on simulating physical processes using numerical models with uncertain parameters and initial conditions. Predictions by such uncertain models can be greatly improved by Kalman-filter techniques that sequentially assimilate monitoring data. Each assimilation constitutes a nonlinear optimization, which is solved by linearizing an objective function about the model prediction and applying a linear correction to this prediction. However, if model parameters and initial conditions are uncertain, the optimization problem becomes strongly nonlinear and a linear correction may yield unphysical results. In this paper, we investigate the utility of one-step ahead smoothing, a variant of the traditional filtering process, to eliminate nonphysical results and reduce estimation artifacts caused by nonlinearities. We present the smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter (sCSKF), an algorithm that combines one step ahead smoothing, in which current observations are used to correct the state and parameters one step back in time, with a nonensemble covariance compression scheme, that reduces the computational cost by efficiently exploring the high-dimensional state and parameter space. Numerical experiments show that when model parameters are uncertain and the states exhibit hyperbolic behavior with sharp fronts, as in CO2 storage applications, one-step ahead smoothing reduces overshooting errors and, by design, gives physically consistent state and parameter estimates. We compared sCSKF with commonly used data assimilation methods and showed that for the same computational cost, combining one step ahead smoothing and nonensemble compression is advantageous for real-time characterization and monitoring of large-scale hydrogeological systems with sharp moving fronts.

Guidelines for Developing and Reporting Machine Learning Predictive Models in Biomedical Research: A Multidisciplinary View

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs. Objective To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence. Methods A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method. Results The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models. Conclusions A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community. PMID:27986644

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Rolando

2003-01-01

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

RAYLEIGH–TAYLOR UNSTABLE FLAMES—FAST OR FASTER?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hicks, E. P., E-mail: eph2001@columbia.edu

2015-04-20

Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) unstable flames play a key role in the explosions of supernovae Ia. However, the dynamics of these flames are still not well understood. RT unstable flames are affected by both the RT instability of the flame front and by RT-generated turbulence. The coexistence of these factors complicates the choice of flame speed subgrid models for full-star Type Ia simulations. Both processes can stretch and wrinkle the flame surface, increasing its area and, therefore, the burning rate. In past research, subgrid models have been based on either the RT instability or turbulence setting the flame speed. We evaluate bothmore » models, checking their assumptions and their ability to correctly predict the turbulent flame speed. Specifically, we analyze a large parameter study of 3D direct numerical simulations of RT unstable model flames. This study varies both the simulation domain width and the gravity in order to probe a wide range of flame behaviors. We show that RT unstable flames are different from traditional turbulent flames: they are thinner rather than thicker when turbulence is stronger. We also show that none of the several different types of turbulent flame speed models accurately predicts measured flame speeds. In addition, we find that the RT flame speed model only correctly predicts the measured flame speed in a certain parameter regime. Finally, we propose that the formation of cusps may be the factor causing the flame to propagate more quickly than predicted by the RT model.« less

Rayleigh-Taylor Unstable Flames -- Fast or Faster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, E. P.

2015-04-01

Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) unstable flames play a key role in the explosions of supernovae Ia. However, the dynamics of these flames are still not well understood. RT unstable flames are affected by both the RT instability of the flame front and by RT-generated turbulence. The coexistence of these factors complicates the choice of flame speed subgrid models for full-star Type Ia simulations. Both processes can stretch and wrinkle the flame surface, increasing its area and, therefore, the burning rate. In past research, subgrid models have been based on either the RT instability or turbulence setting the flame speed. We evaluate both models, checking their assumptions and their ability to correctly predict the turbulent flame speed. Specifically, we analyze a large parameter study of 3D direct numerical simulations of RT unstable model flames. This study varies both the simulation domain width and the gravity in order to probe a wide range of flame behaviors. We show that RT unstable flames are different from traditional turbulent flames: they are thinner rather than thicker when turbulence is stronger. We also show that none of the several different types of turbulent flame speed models accurately predicts measured flame speeds. In addition, we find that the RT flame speed model only correctly predicts the measured flame speed in a certain parameter regime. Finally, we propose that the formation of cusps may be the factor causing the flame to propagate more quickly than predicted by the RT model.

Prediction of Response to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer by Multiplex Kinase Activity Profiling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folkvord, Sigurd; Flatmark, Kjersti; Department of Cancer and Surgery, Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo University Hospital

2010-10-01

Purpose: Tumor response of rectal cancer to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) varies considerably. In experimental tumor models and clinical radiotherapy, activity of particular subsets of kinase signaling pathways seems to predict radiation response. This study aimed to determine whether tumor kinase activity profiles might predict tumor response to preoperative CRT in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods and Materials: Sixty-seven LARC patients were treated with a CRT regimen consisting of radiotherapy, fluorouracil, and, where possible, oxaliplatin. Pretreatment tumor biopsy specimens were analyzed using microarrays with kinase substrates, and the resulting substrate phosphorylation patterns were correlated with tumor response to preoperative treatmentmore » as assessed by histomorphologic tumor regression grade (TRG). A predictive model for TRG scores from phosphosubstrate signatures was obtained by partial-least-squares discriminant analysis. Prediction performance was evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation and use of an independent test set. Results: In the patient population, 73% and 15% were scored as good responders (TRG 1-2) or intermediate responders (TRG 3), whereas 12% were assessed as poor responders (TRG 4-5). In a subset of 7 poor responders and 12 good responders, treatment outcome was correctly predicted for 95%. Application of the prediction model on the remaining patient samples resulted in correct prediction for 85%. Phosphosubstrate signatures generated by poor-responding tumors indicated high kinase activity, which was inhibited by the kinase inhibitor sunitinib, and several discriminating phosphosubstrates represented proteins derived from signaling pathways implicated in radioresistance. Conclusions: Multiplex kinase activity profiling may identify functional biomarkers predictive of tumor response to preoperative CRT in LARC.« less

How and how much does RAD-seq bias genetic diversity estimates?

PubMed

Cariou, Marie; Duret, Laurent; Charlat, Sylvain

2016-11-08

RAD-seq is a powerful tool, increasingly used in population genomics. However, earlier studies have raised red flags regarding possible biases associated with this technique. In particular, polymorphism on restriction sites results in preferential sampling of closely related haplotypes, so that RAD data tends to underestimate genetic diversity. Here we (1) clarify the theoretical basis of this bias, highlighting the potential confounding effects of population structure and selection, (2) confront predictions to real data from in silico digestion of full genomes and (3) provide a proof of concept toward an ABC-based correction of the RAD-seq bias. Under a neutral and panmictic model, we confirm the previously established relationship between the true polymorphism and its RAD-based estimation, showing a more pronounced bias when polymorphism is high. Using more elaborate models, we show that selection, resulting in heterogeneous levels of polymorphism along the genome, exacerbates the bias and leads to a more pronounced underestimation. On the contrary, spatial genetic structure tends to reduce the bias. We confront the neutral and panmictic model to "ideal" empirical data (in silico RAD-sequencing) using full genomes from natural populations of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster and the fungus Shizophyllum commune, harbouring respectively moderate and high genetic diversity. In D. melanogaster, predictions fit the model, but the small difference between the true and RAD polymorphism makes this comparison insensitive to deviations from the model. In the highly polymorphic fungus, the model captures a large part of the bias but makes inaccurate predictions. Accordingly, ABC corrections based on this model improve the estimations, albeit with some imprecisions. The RAD-seq underestimation of genetic diversity associated with polymorphism in restriction sites becomes more pronounced when polymorphism is high. In practice, this means that in many systems where polymorphism does not exceed 2 %, the bias is of minor importance in the face of other sources of uncertainty, such as heterogeneous bases composition or technical artefacts. The neutral panmictic model provides a practical mean to correct the bias through ABC, albeit with some imprecisions. More elaborate ABC methods might integrate additional parameters, such as population structure and selection, but their opposite effects could hinder accurate corrections.

Predicting waist circumference from body mass index.

PubMed

Bozeman, Samuel R; Hoaglin, David C; Burton, Tanya M; Pashos, Chris L; Ben-Joseph, Rami H; Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2012-08-03

Being overweight or obese increases risk for cardiometabolic disorders. Although both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) measure the level of overweight and obesity, WC may be more important because of its closer relationship to total body fat. Because WC is typically not assessed in clinical practice, this study sought to develop and verify a model to predict WC from BMI and demographic data, and to use the predicted WC to assess cardiometabolic risk. Data were obtained from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). We developed linear regression models for men and women using NHANES data, fitting waist circumference as a function of BMI. For validation, those regressions were applied to ARIC data, assigning a predicted WC to each individual. We used the predicted WC to assess abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risk. The model correctly classified 88.4% of NHANES subjects with respect to abdominal obesity. Median differences between actual and predicted WC were -0.07 cm for men and 0.11 cm for women. In ARIC, the model closely estimated the observed WC (median difference: -0.34 cm for men, +3.94 cm for women), correctly classifying 86.1% of ARIC subjects with respect to abdominal obesity and 91.5% to 99.5% as to cardiometabolic risk.The model is generalizable to Caucasian and African-American adult populations because it was constructed from data on a large, population-based sample of men and women in the United States, and then validated in a population with a larger representation of African-Americans. The model accurately estimates WC and identifies cardiometabolic risk. It should be useful for health care practitioners and public health officials who wish to identify individuals and populations at risk for cardiometabolic disease when WC data are unavailable.

Prediction of Airfoil Characteristics With Higher Order Turbulence Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, Thomas B.

1996-01-01

This study focuses on the prediction of airfoil characteristics, including lift and drag over a range of Reynolds numbers. Two different turbulence models, which represent two different types of models, are tested. The first is a standard isotropic eddy-viscosity two-equation model, and the second is an explicit algebraic stress model (EASM). The turbulent flow field over a general-aviation airfoil (GA(W)-2) at three Reynolds numbers is studied. At each Reynolds number, predicted lift and drag values at different angles of attack are compared with experimental results, and predicted variations of stall locations with Reynolds number are compared with experimental data. Finally, the size of the separation zone predicted by each model is analyzed, and correlated with the behavior of the lift coefficient near stall. In summary, the EASM model is able to predict the lift and drag coefficients over a wider range of angles of attack than the two-equation model for the three Reynolds numbers studied. However, both models are unable to predict the correct lift and drag behavior near the stall angle, and for the lowest Reynolds number case, the two-equation model did not predict separation on the airfoil near stall.

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

A model for phase noise generation in amplifiers.

PubMed

Tomlin, T D; Fynn, K; Cantoni, A

2001-11-01

In this paper, a model is presented for predicting the phase modulation (PM) and amplitude modulation (AM) noise in bipolar junction transistor (BJT) amplifiers. The model correctly predicts the dependence of phase noise on the signal frequency (at a particular carrier offset frequency), explains the noise shaping of the phase noise about the signal frequency, and shows the functional dependence on the transistor parameters and the circuit parameters. Experimental studies on common emitter (CE) amplifiers have been used to validate the PM noise model at carrier frequencies between 10 and 100 MHz.

Addressing recent docking challenges: A hybrid strategy to integrate template-based and free protein-protein docking.

PubMed

Yan, Yumeng; Wen, Zeyu; Wang, Xinxiang; Huang, Sheng-You

2017-03-01

Protein-protein docking is an important computational tool for predicting protein-protein interactions. With the rapid development of proteomics projects, more and more experimental binding information ranging from mutagenesis data to three-dimensional structures of protein complexes are becoming available. Therefore, how to appropriately incorporate the biological information into traditional ab initio docking has been an important issue and challenge in the field of protein-protein docking. To address these challenges, we have developed a Hybrid DOCKing protocol of template-based and template-free approaches, referred to as HDOCK. The basic procedure of HDOCK is to model the structures of individual components based on the template complex by a template-based method if a template is available; otherwise, the component structures will be modeled based on monomer proteins by regular homology modeling. Then, the complex structure of the component models is predicted by traditional protein-protein docking. With the HDOCK protocol, we have participated in the CPARI experiment for rounds 28-35. Out of the 25 CASP-CAPRI targets for oligomer modeling, our HDOCK protocol predicted correct models for 16 targets, ranking one of the top algorithms in this challenge. Our docking method also made correct predictions on other CAPRI challenges such as protein-peptide binding for 6 out of 8 targets and water predictions for 2 out of 2 targets. The advantage of our hybrid docking approach over pure template-based docking was further confirmed by a comparative evaluation on 20 CASP-CAPRI targets. Proteins 2017; 85:497-512. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Is Directivity Still Effective in a PSHA Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2008-12-01

Source rupture parameters, like directivity, modulate the energy release causing variations in the radiated signal amplitude. Thus they affect the empirical predictive equations and as a consequence the seismic hazard assessment. Classical probabilistic hazard evaluations, e.g. Cornell (1968), use very simple predictive equations only based on magnitude and distance which do not account for variables concerning the rupture process. However nowadays, a few predictive equations (e.g. Somerville 1997, Spudich and Chiou 2008) take into account for rupture directivity. Also few implementations have been made in a PSHA framework (e.g. Convertito et al. 2006, Rowshandel 2006). In practice, these new empirical predictive models incorporate quantitatively the rupture propagation effects through the introduction of variables like rake, azimuth, rupture velocity and laterality. The contribution of all these variables is summarized in corrective factors derived from measuring differences between the real data and the predicted ones Therefore, it's possible to keep the older computation, making use of a simple predictive model, and besides, to incorporate the directivity effect through the corrective factors. Any single supplementary variable meaning a new integral in the parametric space. However the difficulty consists of the constraints on parameter distribution functions. We present the preliminary result for ad hoc distributions (Gaussian, uniform distributions) in order to test the impact of incorporating directivity into PSHA models. We demonstrate that incorporating directivity in PSHA by means of the new predictive equations may lead to strong percentage variations in the hazard assessment.

Is ozone model bias driven by errors in cloud predictions? A quantitative assessment using satellite cloud retrievals in WRF-Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Y. H.; Hodzic, A.; Barré, J.; Descombes, G.; Minnis, P.

2017-12-01

Clouds play a key role in radiation and hence O3 photochemistry by modulating photolysis rates and light-dependent emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). It is not well known, however, how much of the bias in O3 predictions is caused by inaccurate cloud predictions. This study quantifies the errors in surface O3 predictions associated with clouds in summertime over CONUS using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. Cloud fields used for photochemistry are corrected based on satellite cloud retrievals in sensitivity simulations. It is found that the WRF-Chem model is able to detect about 60% of clouds in the right locations and generally underpredicts cloud optical depths. The errors in hourly O3 due to the errors in cloud predictions can be up to 60 ppb. On average in summertime over CONUS, the errors in 8-h average O3 of 1-6 ppb are found to be attributable to those in cloud predictions under cloudy sky conditions. The contribution of changes in photolysis rates due to clouds is found to be larger ( 80 % on average) than that of light-dependent BVOC emissions. The effects of cloud corrections on O­3 are about 2 times larger in VOC-limited than NOx-limited regimes, suggesting that the benefits of accurate cloud predictions would be greater in VOC-limited than NOx-limited regimes.

Modeling ready biodegradability of fragrance materials.

PubMed

Ceriani, Lidia; Papa, Ester; Kovarich, Simona; Boethling, Robert; Gramatica, Paola

2015-06-01

In the present study, quantitative structure activity relationships were developed for predicting ready biodegradability of approximately 200 heterogeneous fragrance materials. Two classification methods, classification and regression tree (CART) and k-nearest neighbors (kNN), were applied to perform the modeling. The models were validated with multiple external prediction sets, and the structural applicability domain was verified by the leverage approach. The best models had good sensitivity (internal ≥80%; external ≥68%), specificity (internal ≥80%; external 73%), and overall accuracy (≥75%). Results from the comparison with BIOWIN global models, based on group contribution method, show that specific models developed in the present study perform better in prediction than BIOWIN6, in particular for the correct classification of not readily biodegradable fragrance materials. © 2015 SETAC.

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 5: User's Manual for Three-Dimensional Rigid-Lid Model. [environment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.; Sinha, S. K.

1980-01-01

A user's manual for a three dimensional, rigid lid model used for hydrothermal predictions of closed basins subjected to a heated discharge together with various other inflows and outflows is presented. The model has the capability to predict (1) wind driven circulation; (2) the circulation caused by inflows and outflows to the domain; and (3) the thermal effects in the domain, and to combine the above processes. The calibration procedure consists of comparing ground truth corrected airborne radiometer data with surface isotherms predicted by the model. The model was verified for accuracy at various sites and results are found to be fairly accurate in all verification runs.

Bullet trajectory predicts the need for damage control: an artificial neural network model.

PubMed

Hirshberg, Asher; Wall, Matthew J; Mattox, Kenneth L

2002-05-01

Effective use of damage control in trauma hinges on an early decision to use it. Bullet trajectory has never been studied as a marker for damage control. We hypothesize that this decision can be predicted by an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on the bullet trajectory and the patient's blood pressure. A multilayer perceptron ANN predictive model was developed from a data set of 312 patients with single abdominal gunshot injuries. Input variables were the bullet path, trajectory patterns, and admission systolic pressure. The output variable was either a damage control laparotomy or intraoperative death. The best performing ANN was implemented on prospectively collected data from 34 patients. The model achieved a correct classification rate of 0.96 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94. External validation showed the model to have a sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 96%. Model implementation on the prospectively collected data had a correct classification rate of 0.91. Sensitivity analysis showed that systolic pressure, bullet path across the midline, and trajectory involving the right upper quadrant were the three most important input variables. Bullet trajectory is an important, hitherto unrecognized, factor that should be incorporated into the decision to use damage control.

The ADaptation and Anticipation Model (ADAM) of sensorimotor synchronization

PubMed Central

van der Steen, M. C. (Marieke); Keller, Peter E.

2013-01-01

A constantly changing environment requires precise yet flexible timing of movements. Sensorimotor synchronization (SMS)—the temporal coordination of an action with events in a predictable external rhythm—is a fundamental human skill that contributes to optimal sensory-motor control in daily life. A large body of research related to SMS has focused on adaptive error correction mechanisms that support the synchronization of periodic movements (e.g., finger taps) with events in regular pacing sequences. The results of recent studies additionally highlight the importance of anticipatory mechanisms that support temporal prediction in the context of SMS with sequences that contain tempo changes. To investigate the role of adaptation and anticipatory mechanisms in SMS we introduce ADAM: an ADaptation and Anticipation Model. ADAM combines reactive error correction processes (adaptation) with predictive temporal extrapolation processes (anticipation) inspired by the computational neuroscience concept of internal models. The combination of simulations and experimental manipulations based on ADAM creates a novel and promising approach for exploring adaptation and anticipation in SMS. The current paper describes the conceptual basis and architecture of ADAM. PMID:23772211

Testing chemical carcinogenicity by using a transcriptomics HepaRG-based model?

PubMed Central

Doktorova, T. Y.; Yildirimman, Reha; Ceelen, Liesbeth; Vilardell, Mireia; Vanhaecke, Tamara; Vinken, Mathieu; Ates, Gamze; Heymans, Anja; Gmuender, Hans; Bort, Roque; Corvi, Raffaella; Phrakonkham, Pascal; Li, Ruoya; Mouchet, Nicolas; Chesne, Christophe; van Delft, Joost; Kleinjans, Jos; Castell, Jose; Herwig, Ralf; Rogiers, Vera

2014-01-01

The EU FP6 project carcinoGENOMICS explored the combination of toxicogenomics and in vitro cell culture models for identifying organotypical genotoxic- and non-genotoxic carcinogen-specific gene signatures. Here the performance of its gene classifier, derived from exposure of metabolically competent human HepaRG cells to prototypical non-carcinogens (10 compounds) and hepatocarcinogens (20 compounds), is reported. Analysis of the data at the gene and the pathway level by using independent biostatistical approaches showed a distinct separation of genotoxic from non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens and non-carcinogens (up to 88 % correct prediction). The most characteristic pathway responding to genotoxic exposure was DNA damage. Interlaboratory reproducibility was assessed by blindly testing of three compounds, from the set of 30 compounds, by three independent laboratories. Subsequent classification of these compounds resulted in correct prediction of the genotoxicants. As expected, results on the non-genotoxic carcinogens and the non-carcinogens were less predictive. In conclusion, the combination of transcriptomics with the HepaRG in vitro cell model provides a potential weight of evidence approach for the evaluation of the genotoxic potential of chemical substances. PMID:26417288

Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir

2018-05-01

A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.

Turbulent flow in a 180 deg bend: Modeling and computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaul, Upender K.

1989-01-01

A low Reynolds number k-epsilon turbulence model was presented which yields accurate predictions of the kinetic energy near the wall. The model is validated with the experimental channel flow data of Kreplin and Eckelmann. The predictions are also compared with earlier results from direct simulation of turbulent channel flow. The model is especially useful for internal flows where the inflow boundary condition of epsilon is not easily prescribed. The model partly derives from some observations based on earlier direct simulation results of near-wall turbulence. The low Reynolds number turbulence model together with an existing curvature correction appropriate to spinning cylinder flows was used to simulate the flow in a U-bend with the same radius of curvature as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Turn-Around Duct (TAD). The present computations indicate a space varying curvature correction parameter as opposed to a constant parameter as used in the spinning cylinder flows. Comparison with limited available experimental data is made. The comparison is favorable, but detailed experimental data is needed to further improve the curvature model.

Peptide retention prediction using hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Badgett, Majors J; Boyes, Barry; Orlando, Ron

2018-02-16

A model that predicts retention for peptides using a HALO ® penta-HILIC column and gradient elution was created. Coefficients for each amino acid were derived using linear regression analysis and these coefficients can be summed to predict the retention of peptides. This model has a high correlation between experimental and predicted retention times (0.946), which is on par with previous RP and HILIC models. External validation of the model was performed using a set of H. pylori samples on the same LC-MS system used to create the model, and the deviation from actual to predicted times was low. Apart from amino acid composition, length and location of amino acid residues on a peptide were examined and two site-specific corrections for hydrophobic residues at the N-terminus as well as hydrophobic residues one spot over from the N-terminus were created. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of Satellite Data in Regional Air Quality Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Norris, William B.; Casey, Daniel; Pleim, Jonathan E.; Roselle, Shawn J.; Lapenta, William M.

1997-01-01

In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

PubMed

El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

2018-02-01

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data-poor regions.

Dual assimilation of satellite soil moisture to improve flood prediction in ungauged catchments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper explores the use of active and passive satellite soil moisture products for improving stream flow prediction within 4 large (>5,000km2) semi-arid catchments. We use the probability distributed model (PDM) under a data-scarce scenario and aim at correcting two key controlling factors in th...

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Science.gov Websites

LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2018, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO NEARING 50% BY PRECIPITATION ARE LOWERED. SOME ENSO FORECAST MODELS PREDICT A WARM EVENT (EL NINO) BY THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2018-19. IF CORRECT, HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR

Predicting wildfire behavior in black spruce forests in Alaska.

Treesearch

Rodney A. Norum

1982-01-01

The current fire behavior system, when properly adjusted, accurately predicts forward rate of spread and flame length of wildfires in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) forests in Alaska. After fire behavior was observed and quantified, adjustment factors were calculated and assigned to the selected fuel models to correct the outputs to...

Statistical models to predict type 2 diabetes remission after bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Ramos-Levi, Ana M; Matia, Pilar; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Barabash, Ana; Sanchez-Pernaute, Andres; Calle-Pascual, Alfonso L; Torres, Antonio J; Rubio, Miguel A

2014-09-01

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission may be achieved after bariatric surgery (BS), but rates vary according to patients' baseline characteristics. The present study evaluates the relevance of several preoperative factors and develops statistical models to predict T2D remission 1 year after BS. We retrospectively studied 141 patients (57.4% women), with a preoperative diagnosis of T2D, who underwent BS in a single center (2006-2011). Anthropometric and glucose metabolism parameters before surgery and at 1-year follow-up were recorded. Remission of T2D was defined according to consensus criteria: HbA1c <6%, fasting glucose (FG) <100 mg/dL, absence of pharmacologic treatment. The influence of several preoperative factors was explored and different statistical models to predict T2D remission were elaborated using logistic regression analysis. Three preoperative characteristics considered individually were identified as the most powerful predictors of T2D remission: C-peptide (R2  = 0.249; odds ratio [OR] 1.652, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.181-2.309; P = 0.003), T2D duration (R2  = 0.197; OR 0.869, 95% CI 0.808-0.935; P < 0.001), and previous insulin therapy (R2  = 0.165; OR 4.670, 95% CI 2.257-9.665; P < 0.001). High C-peptide levels, a shorter duration of T2D, and the absence of insulin therapy favored remission. Different multivariate logistic regression models were designed. When considering sex, T2D duration, and insulin treatment, remission was correctly predicted in 72.4% of cases. The model that included age, FG and C-peptide levels resulted in 83.7% correct classifications. When sex, FG, C-peptide, insulin treatment, and percentage weight loss were considered, correct classification of T2D remission was achieved in 95.9% of cases. Preoperative characteristics determine T2D remission rates after BS to different extents. The use of statistical models may help clinicians reliably predict T2D remission rates after BS. © 2014 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Floodplain dynamics control the age distribution of organic carbon in large rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, M. A.; Limaye, A. B. S.; Ganti, V.; West, A. J.; Fischer, W. W.; Lamb, M. P.

2016-12-01

As sediments transit through river systems, they are temporarily stored within floodplains. This storage is important for geochemical cycles because it imparts a certain cadence to weathering processes and organic carbon cycling. However, the time and length scales over which these processes operate are poorly known. To address this, we developed a model for the distribution of storage times in floodplains and used it to make predictions of the age distribution of riverine particulate organic carbon (POC) that can be compared with data from a range of rivers.Using statistics generated from a numerical model of river meandering that accounts for the rates of lateral channel migration and the lengths of channel needed to exchange the sediment flux with the floodplain, we estimated the distribution of sediment storage times. Importantly, this approach consistently yields a heavy-tailed distribution of storage times. This finding, based on comprehensive simulations of a wide range of river conditions, arises because of geometrical constraints that lead to the preferential erosion and reworking of young deposits. To benchmark our model, we compared our results with meteoric 10Be data (a storage time proxy) from Amazonian rivers. Our model correctly predicts observed 10Be concentrations, and consequently appears to capture the correct characteristic timescales associated with floodplain storage. By coupling a simple model of carbon cycling with our floodplain storage model, we are able to make predictions about the radiocarbon content of riverine POC. We observe that floodplains with greater storage times tend to have biospheric POC with a lower radiocarbon content (after correcting bulk ages for contribution from radiocarbon-dead petrogenic carbon). This result confirms that storage plays a key role in setting the age of POC transported by rivers with important implications for the dynamics of the global carbon cycle.

Brain Substrates of Recovery from Misleading Influence

PubMed Central

Dudai, Yadin; Dolan, Raymond J.; Sharot, Tali

2014-01-01

Humans are strongly influenced by their environment, a dependence that can lead to errors in judgment. Although a rich literature describes how people are influenced by others, little is known regarding the factors that predict subsequent rectification of misleading influence. Using a mediation model in combination with brain imaging, we propose a model for the correction of misinformation. Specifically, our data suggest that amygdala modulation of hippocampal mnemonic representations, during the time of misleading social influence, is associated with reduced subsequent anterior–lateral prefrontal cortex activity that reflects correction. These findings illuminate the process by which erroneous beliefs are, or fail to be, rectified and highlight how past influence constrains subsequent correction. PMID:24899698

Cosmic backreaction and Gauss's law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleury, Pierre

2017-06-01

Cosmic backreaction refers to the general question of whether a homogeneous and isotropic cosmological model is able to predict the correct expansion dynamics of our inhomogeneous Universe. One aspect of this issue concerns the validity of the continuous approximation: does a system of point masses expand the same way as a fluid does? This article shows that it is not exactly the case in Newtonian gravity, although the associated corrections vanish in an infinite Universe. It turns out that Gauss's law is a key ingredient for such corrections to vanish. Backreaction, therefore, generically arises in alternative theories of gravitation, which threatens the trustworthiness of their cosmological tests. This phenomenon is illustrated with a toy model of massive gravity.

The Coherent Flame Model for Turbulent Chemical Reactions

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

numerical integration of the resulting differential equations. The model predicts the flame length and superficial comparison with experiments suggest a...value for the single universal constant. The theory correctly predicts the change of flame length with changes in stoich- iometric ratio for the...indicate the X will be some where between 0.1 and 0.5. Figure 13 is presented to show the effect of equivalence ratio, , on the flame length when the

A Bayesian Framework for False Belief Reasoning in Children: A Rational Integration of Theory-Theory and Simulation Theory

PubMed Central

Asakura, Nobuhiko; Inui, Toshio

2016-01-01

Two apparently contrasting theories have been proposed to account for the development of children's theory of mind (ToM): theory-theory and simulation theory. We present a Bayesian framework that rationally integrates both theories for false belief reasoning. This framework exploits two internal models for predicting the belief states of others: one of self and one of others. These internal models are responsible for simulation-based and theory-based reasoning, respectively. The framework further takes into account empirical studies of a developmental ToM scale (e.g., Wellman and Liu, 2004): developmental progressions of various mental state understandings leading up to false belief understanding. By representing the internal models and their interactions as a causal Bayesian network, we formalize the model of children's false belief reasoning as probabilistic computations on the Bayesian network. This model probabilistically weighs and combines the two internal models and predicts children's false belief ability as a multiplicative effect of their early-developed abilities to understand the mental concepts of diverse beliefs and knowledge access. Specifically, the model predicts that children's proportion of correct responses on a false belief task can be closely approximated as the product of their proportions correct on the diverse belief and knowledge access tasks. To validate this prediction, we illustrate that our model provides good fits to a variety of ToM scale data for preschool children. We discuss the implications and extensions of our model for a deeper understanding of developmental progressions of children's ToM abilities. PMID:28082941

A Bayesian Framework for False Belief Reasoning in Children: A Rational Integration of Theory-Theory and Simulation Theory.

PubMed

Asakura, Nobuhiko; Inui, Toshio

2016-01-01

Two apparently contrasting theories have been proposed to account for the development of children's theory of mind (ToM): theory-theory and simulation theory. We present a Bayesian framework that rationally integrates both theories for false belief reasoning. This framework exploits two internal models for predicting the belief states of others: one of self and one of others. These internal models are responsible for simulation-based and theory-based reasoning, respectively. The framework further takes into account empirical studies of a developmental ToM scale (e.g., Wellman and Liu, 2004): developmental progressions of various mental state understandings leading up to false belief understanding. By representing the internal models and their interactions as a causal Bayesian network, we formalize the model of children's false belief reasoning as probabilistic computations on the Bayesian network. This model probabilistically weighs and combines the two internal models and predicts children's false belief ability as a multiplicative effect of their early-developed abilities to understand the mental concepts of diverse beliefs and knowledge access. Specifically, the model predicts that children's proportion of correct responses on a false belief task can be closely approximated as the product of their proportions correct on the diverse belief and knowledge access tasks. To validate this prediction, we illustrate that our model provides good fits to a variety of ToM scale data for preschool children. We discuss the implications and extensions of our model for a deeper understanding of developmental progressions of children's ToM abilities.

Stochastic theory of large-scale enzyme-reaction networks: Finite copy number corrections to rate equation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Philipp; Straube, Arthur V.; Grima, Ramon

2010-11-01

Chemical reactions inside cells occur in compartment volumes in the range of atto- to femtoliters. Physiological concentrations realized in such small volumes imply low copy numbers of interacting molecules with the consequence of considerable fluctuations in the concentrations. In contrast, rate equation models are based on the implicit assumption of infinitely large numbers of interacting molecules, or equivalently, that reactions occur in infinite volumes at constant macroscopic concentrations. In this article we compute the finite-volume corrections (or equivalently the finite copy number corrections) to the solutions of the rate equations for chemical reaction networks composed of arbitrarily large numbers of enzyme-catalyzed reactions which are confined inside a small subcellular compartment. This is achieved by applying a mesoscopic version of the quasisteady-state assumption to the exact Fokker-Planck equation associated with the Poisson representation of the chemical master equation. The procedure yields impressively simple and compact expressions for the finite-volume corrections. We prove that the predictions of the rate equations will always underestimate the actual steady-state substrate concentrations for an enzyme-reaction network confined in a small volume. In particular we show that the finite-volume corrections increase with decreasing subcellular volume, decreasing Michaelis-Menten constants, and increasing enzyme saturation. The magnitude of the corrections depends sensitively on the topology of the network. The predictions of the theory are shown to be in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations for two types of networks typically associated with protein methylation and metabolism.

Use of the Ames Check Standard Model for the Validation of Wall Interference Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.; Amaya, M.; Flach, R.

2018-01-01

The new check standard model of the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel was chosen for a future validation of the facility's wall interference correction system. The chosen validation approach takes advantage of the fact that test conditions experienced by a large model in the slotted part of the tunnel's test section will change significantly if a subset of the slots is temporarily sealed. Therefore, the model's aerodynamic coefficients have to be recorded, corrected, and compared for two different test section configurations in order to perform the validation. Test section configurations with highly accurate Mach number and dynamic pressure calibrations were selected for the validation. First, the model is tested with all test section slots in open configuration while keeping the model's center of rotation on the tunnel centerline. In the next step, slots on the test section floor are sealed and the model is moved to a new center of rotation that is 33 inches below the tunnel centerline. Then, the original angle of attack sweeps are repeated. Afterwards, wall interference corrections are applied to both test data sets and response surface models of the resulting aerodynamic coefficients in interference-free flow are generated. Finally, the response surface models are used to predict the aerodynamic coefficients for a family of angles of attack while keeping dynamic pressure, Mach number, and Reynolds number constant. The validation is considered successful if the corrected aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the related response surface model pair show good agreement. Residual differences between the corrected coefficient sets will be analyzed as well because they are an indicator of the overall accuracy of the facility's wall interference correction process.

Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators.

PubMed

Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s -channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s -channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

A comparison of low back kinetic estimates obtained through posture matching, rigid link modeling and an EMG-assisted model.

PubMed

Parkinson, R J; Bezaire, M; Callaghan, J P

2011-07-01

This study examined errors introduced by a posture matching approach (3DMatch) relative to dynamic three-dimensional rigid link and EMG-assisted models. Eighty-eight lifting trials of various combinations of heights (floor, 0.67, 1.2 m), asymmetry (left, right and center) and mass (7.6 and 9.7 kg) were videotaped while spine postures, ground reaction forces, segment orientations and muscle activations were documented and used to estimate joint moments and forces (L5/S1). Posture matching over predicted peak and cumulative extension moment (p < 0.0001 for all variables). There was no difference between peak compression estimates obtained with posture matching or EMG-assisted approaches (p = 0.7987). Posture matching over predicted cumulative (p < 0.0001) compressive loading due to a bias in standing, however, individualized bias correction eliminated the differences. Therefore, posture matching provides a method to analyze industrial lifting exposures that will predict kinetic values similar to those of more sophisticated models, provided necessary corrections are applied. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Comparison of theory and experiment for NAPL dissolution in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahar, T.; Golfier, F.; Oltéan, C.; Lefevre, E.; Lorgeoux, C.

2018-04-01

Contamination of groundwater resources by an immiscible organic phase commonly called NAPL (Non Aqueous Phase Liquid) represents a major scientific challenge considering the residence time of such a pollutant. This contamination leads to the formation of NAPL blobs trapped in the soil and impact of this residual saturation cannot be ignored for correct predictions of the contaminant fate. In this paper, we present results of micromodel experiments on the dissolution of pure hydrocarbon phase (toluene). They were conducted for two values of the Péclet number. These experiments provide data for comparison and validation of a two-phase non-equilibrium theoretical model developed by Quintard and Whitaker (1994) using the volume averaging method. The model was directly upscaled from the averaged pore-scale mass balance equations. The effective properties of the macroscopic model were calculated over periodic unit cells designed from images of the experimental flow cell. Comparison of experimental and numerical results shows that the transport model predicts correctly - with no fitting parameters - the main mechanisms of NAPL mass transfer. The study highlights the crucial need of having a fair recovery of pore-scale characteristic lengths to predict the mass transfer coefficient with accuracy.

Scaling methane oxidation: From laboratory incubation experiments to landfill cover field conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abichou, Tarek, E-mail: abichou@eng.fsu.edu; Mahieu, Koenraad; Chanton, Jeff

2011-05-15

Evaluating field-scale methane oxidation in landfill cover soils using numerical models is gaining interest in the solid waste industry as research has made it clear that methane oxidation in the field is a complex function of climatic conditions, soil type, cover design, and incoming flux of landfill gas from the waste mass. Numerical models can account for these parameters as they change with time and space under field conditions. In this study, we developed temperature, and water content correction factors for methane oxidation parameters. We also introduced a possible correction to account for the different soil structure under field conditions.more » These parameters were defined in laboratory incubation experiments performed on homogenized soil specimens and were used to predict the actual methane oxidation rates to be expected under field conditions. Water content and temperature corrections factors were obtained for the methane oxidation rate parameter to be used when modeling methane oxidation in the field. To predict in situ measured rates of methane with the model it was necessary to set the half saturation constant of methane and oxygen, K{sub m}, to 5%, approximately five times larger than laboratory measured values. We hypothesize that this discrepancy reflects differences in soil structure between homogenized soil conditions in the lab and actual aggregated soil structure in the field. When all of these correction factors were re-introduced into the oxidation module of our model, it was able to reproduce surface emissions (as measured by static flux chambers) and percent oxidation (as measured by stable isotope techniques) within the range measured in the field.« less

Predicting helix orientation for coiled-coil dimers

PubMed Central

Apgar, James R.; Gutwin, Karl N.; Keating, Amy E.

2008-01-01

The alpha-helical coiled coil is a structurally simple protein oligomerization or interaction motif consisting of two or more alpha helices twisted into a supercoiled bundle. Coiled coils can differ in their stoichiometry, helix orientation and axial alignment. Because of the near degeneracy of many of these variants, coiled coils pose a challenge to fold recognition methods for structure prediction. Whereas distinctions between some protein folds can be discriminated on the basis of hydrophobic/polar patterning or secondary structure propensities, the sequence differences that encode important details of coiled-coil structure can be subtle. This is emblematic of a larger problem in the field of protein structure and interaction prediction: that of establishing specificity between closely similar structures. We tested the behavior of different computational models on the problem of recognizing the correct orientation - parallel vs. antiparallel - of pairs of alpha helices that can form a dimeric coiled coil. For each of 131 examples of known structure, we constructed a large number of both parallel and antiparallel structural models and used these to asses the ability of five energy functions to recognize the correct fold. We also developed and tested three sequenced-based approaches that make use of varying degrees of implicit structural information. The best structural methods performed similarly to the best sequence methods, correctly categorizing ∼81% of dimers. Steric compatibility with the fold was important for some coiled coils we investigated. For many examples, the correct orientation was determined by smaller energy differences between parallel and antiparallel structures distributed over many residues and energy components. Prediction methods that used structure but incorporated varying approximations and assumptions showed quite different behaviors when used to investigate energetic contributions to orientation preference. Sequence based methods were sensitive to the choice of residue-pair interactions scored. PMID:18506779

The self-consistency model of subjective confidence.

PubMed

Koriat, Asher

2012-01-01

How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen answer is supported across representations. Confidence is modeled by analogy to the calculation of statistical level of confidence (SLC) in testing hypotheses about a population and represents the participant's assessment of the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same choice. Assuming that participants draw representations from a commonly shared item-specific population of representations, predictions were derived regarding the function relating confidence to inter-participant consensus and intra-participant consistency for the more preferred (majority) and the less preferred (minority) choices. The predicted pattern was confirmed for several different tasks. The confidence-accuracy relationship was shown to be a by-product of the consistency-correctness relationship: It is positive because the answers that are consistently chosen are generally correct, but negative when the wrong answers tend to be favored. The overconfidence bias stems from the reliability-validity discrepancy: Confidence monitors reliability (or self-consistency), but its accuracy is evaluated in calibration studies against correctness. Simulation and empirical results suggest that response speed is a frugal cue for self-consistency, and its validity depends on the validity of self-consistency in predicting performance. Another mnemonic cue-accessibility, which is the overall amount of information that comes to mind-makes an added, independent contribution. Self-consistency and accessibility may correspond to the 2 parameters that affect SLC: sample variance and sample size.

Predicting the digestible energy of corn determined with growing swine from nutrient composition and cross-species measurements.

PubMed

Smith, B; Hassen, A; Hinds, M; Rice, D; Jones, D; Sauber, T; Iiams, C; Sevenich, D; Allen, R; Owens, F; McNaughton, J; Parsons, C

2015-03-01

The DE values of corn grain for pigs will differ among corn sources. More accurate prediction of DE may improve diet formulation and reduce diet cost. Corn grain sources ( = 83) were assayed with growing swine (20 kg) in DE experiments with total collection of feces, with 3-wk-old broiler chick in nitrogen-corrected apparent ME (AME) trials and with cecectomized adult roosters in nitrogen-corrected true ME (TME) studies. Additional AME data for the corn grain source set was generated based on an existing near-infrared transmittance prediction model (near-infrared transmittance-predicted AME [NIT-AME]). Corn source nutrient composition was determined by wet chemistry methods. These data were then used to 1) test the accuracy of predicting swine DE of individual corn sources based on available literature equations and nutrient composition and 2) develop models for predicting DE of sources from nutrient composition and the cross-species information gathered above (AME, NIT-AME, and TME). The overall measured DE, AME, NIT-AME, and TME values were 4,105 ± 11, 4,006 ± 10, 4,004 ± 10, and 4,086 ± 12 kcal/kg DM, respectively. Prediction models were developed using 80% of the corn grain sources; the remaining 20% was reserved for validation of the developed prediction equation. Literature equations based on nutrient composition proved imprecise for predicting corn DE; the root mean square error of prediction ranged from 105 to 331 kcal/kg, an equivalent of 2.6 to 8.8% error. Yet among the corn composition traits, 4-variable models developed in the current study provided adequate prediction of DE (model ranging from 0.76 to 0.79 and root mean square error [RMSE] of 50 kcal/kg). When prediction equations were tested using the validation set, these models had a 1 to 1.2% error of prediction. Simple linear equations from AME, NIT-AME, or TME provided an accurate prediction of DE for individual sources ( ranged from 0.65 to 0.73 and RMSE ranged from 50 to 61 kcal/kg). Percentage error of prediction based on the validation data set was greater (1.4%) for the TME model than for the NIT-AME or AME models (1 and 1.2%, respectively), indicating that swine DE values could be accurately predicted by using AME or NIT-AME. In conclusion, regression equations developed from broiler measurements or from analyzed nutrient composition proved adequate to reliably predict the DE of commercially available corn hybrids for growing pigs.

XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

PubMed

Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

2013-12-23

Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

Analyzing the uncertainty of suspended sediment load prediction using sequential data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leisenring, Marc; Moradkhani, Hamid

2012-10-01

SummaryA first step in understanding the impacts of sediment and controlling the sources of sediment is to quantify the mass loading. Since mass loading is the product of flow and concentration, the quantification of loads first requires the quantification of runoff volume. Using the National Weather Service's SNOW-17 and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models, this study employed particle filter based Bayesian data assimilation methods to predict seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff within a small watershed in the Lake Tahoe Basin located in California, USA. A procedure was developed to scale the variance multipliers (a.k.a hyperparameters) for model parameters and predictions based on the accuracy of the mean predictions relative to the ensemble spread. In addition, an online bias correction algorithm based on the lagged average bias was implemented to detect and correct for systematic bias in model forecasts prior to updating with the particle filter. Both of these methods significantly improved the performance of the particle filter without requiring excessively wide prediction bounds. The flow ensemble was linked to a non-linear regression model that was used to predict suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) based on runoff rate and time of year. Runoff volumes and SSC were then combined to produce an ensemble of suspended sediment load estimates. Annual suspended sediment loads for the 5 years of simulation were finally computed along with 95% prediction intervals that account for uncertainty in both the SSC regression model and flow rate estimates. Understanding the uncertainty associated with annual suspended sediment load predictions is critical for making sound watershed management decisions aimed at maintaining the exceptional clarity of Lake Tahoe. The computational methods developed and applied in this research could assist with similar studies where it is important to quantify the predictive uncertainty of pollutant load estimates.

Modeling the archetype cysteine protease reaction using dispersion corrected density functional methods in ONIOM-type hybrid QM/MM calculations; the proteolytic reaction of papain.

PubMed

Fekete, Attila; Komáromi, István

2016-12-07

A proteolytic reaction of papain with a simple peptide model substrate N-methylacetamide has been studied. Our aim was twofold: (i) we proposed a plausible reaction mechanism with the aid of potential energy surface scans and second geometrical derivatives calculated at the stationary points, and (ii) we investigated the applicability of the dispersion corrected density functional methods in comparison with the popular hybrid generalized gradient approximations (GGA) method (B3LYP) without such a correction in the QM/MM calculations for this particular problem. In the resting state of papain the ion pair and neutral forms of the Cys-His catalytic dyad have approximately the same energy and they are separated by only a small barrier. Zero point vibrational energy correction shifted this equilibrium slightly to the neutral form. On the other hand, the electrostatic solvation free energy corrections, calculated using the Poisson-Boltzmann method for the structures sampled from molecular dynamics simulation trajectories, resulted in a more stable ion-pair form. All methods we applied predicted at least a two elementary step acylation process via a zwitterionic tetrahedral intermediate. Using dispersion corrected DFT methods the thioester S-C bond formation and the proton transfer from histidine occur in the same elementary step, although not synchronously. The proton transfer lags behind (or at least does not precede) the S-C bond formation. The predicted transition state corresponds mainly to the S-C bond formation while the proton is still on the histidine Nδ atom. In contrast, the B3LYP method using larger basis sets predicts a transition state in which the S-C bond is almost fully formed and the transition state can be mainly featured by the Nδ(histidine) to N(amid) proton transfer. Considerably lower activation energy was predicted (especially by the B3LYP method) for the next amide bond breaking elementary step of acyl-enzyme formation. Deacylation appeared to be a single elementary step process in all the methods we applied.

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

Structures and Intermittency in a Passive Scalar Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergassola, M.; Mazzino, A.

1997-09-01

Perturbative expansions for intermittency scaling exponents in the Kraichnan passive scalar model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1016 (1994)] are investigated. A one-dimensional compressible model is considered for this purpose. High resolution Monte Carlo simulations using an Ito approach adapted to an advecting velocity field with a very short correlation time are performed and lead to clean scaling behavior for passive scalar structure functions. Perturbative predictions for the scaling exponents around the Gaussian limit of the model are derived as in the Kraichnan model. Their comparison with the simulations indicates that the scale-invariant perturbative scheme correctly captures the inertial range intermittency corrections associated with the intense localized structures observed in the dynamics.

On the role of radiation and dimensionality in predicting flow opposed flame spread over thin fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Chenthil; Kumar, Amit

2012-06-01

In this work a flame-spread model is formulated in three dimensions to simulate opposed flow flame spread over thin solid fuels. The flame-spread model is coupled to a three-dimensional gas radiation model. The experiments [1] on downward spread and zero gravity quiescent spread over finite width thin fuel are simulated by flame-spread models in both two and three dimensions to assess the role of radiation and effect of dimensionality on the prediction of the flame-spread phenomena. It is observed that while radiation plays only a minor role in normal gravity downward spread, in zero gravity quiescent spread surface radiation loss holds the key to correct prediction of low oxygen flame spread rate and quenching limit. The present three-dimensional simulations show that even in zero gravity gas radiation affects flame spread rate only moderately (as much as 20% at 100% oxygen) as the heat feedback effect exceeds the radiation loss effect only moderately. However, the two-dimensional model with the gas radiation model badly over-predicts the zero gravity flame spread rate due to under estimation of gas radiation loss to the ambient surrounding. The two-dimensional model was also found to be inadequate for predicting the zero gravity flame attributes, like the flame length and the flame width, correctly. The need for a three-dimensional model was found to be indispensable for consistently describing the zero gravity flame-spread experiments [1] (including flame spread rate and flame size) especially at high oxygen levels (>30%). On the other hand it was observed that for the normal gravity downward flame spread for oxygen levels up to 60%, the two-dimensional model was sufficient to predict flame spread rate and flame size reasonably well. Gas radiation is seen to increase the three-dimensional effect especially at elevated oxygen levels (>30% for zero gravity and >60% for normal gravity flames).

Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct interpretation of ensemble information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an instrumental variabl...

Factors Influencing the Completion of the GED in a Federal Correctional Setting a Multiple Regression Correlation-Predictive Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akers, Kimberly

2013-01-01

Correctional education's primary goal is to reduce recidivism and increase employment among ex-offenders. The Bureau of Prison's practical goal in its mandatory GED program is to maximize the number of inmates obtaining the GED in a given time period. The purpose of this research is to model the number of instructional hours an inmate requires to…

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Micromechanics of brain white matter tissue: A fiber-reinforced hyperelastic model using embedded element technique.

PubMed

Yousefsani, Seyed Abdolmajid; Shamloo, Amir; Farahmand, Farzam

2018-04-01

A transverse-plane hyperelastic micromechanical model of brain white matter tissue was developed using the embedded element technique (EET). The model consisted of a histology-informed probabilistic distribution of axonal fibers embedded within an extracellular matrix, both described using the generalized Ogden hyperelastic material model. A correcting method, based on the strain energy density function, was formulated to resolve the stiffness redundancy problem of the EET in large deformation regime. The model was then used to predict the homogenized tissue behavior and the associated localized responses of the axonal fibers under quasi-static, transverse, large deformations. Results indicated that with a sufficiently large representative volume element (RVE) and fine mesh, the statistically randomized microstructure implemented in the RVE exhibits directional independency in transverse plane, and the model predictions for the overall and local tissue responses, characterized by the normalized strain energy density and Cauchy and von Mises stresses, are independent from the modeling parameters. Comparison of the responses of the probabilistic model with that of a simple uniform RVE revealed that only the first one is capable of representing the localized behavior of the tissue constituents. The validity test of the model predictions for the corona radiata against experimental data from the literature indicated a very close agreement. In comparison with the conventional direct meshing method, the model provided almost the same results after correcting the stiffness redundancy, however, with much less computational cost and facilitated geometrical modeling, meshing, and boundary conditions imposing. It was concluded that the EET can be used effectively for detailed probabilistic micromechanical modeling of the white matter in order to provide more accurate predictions for the axonal responses, which are of great importance when simulating the brain trauma or tumor growth. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moist air state above counterflow wet-cooling tower fill based on Merkel, generalised Merkel and Klimanek & Białecky models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyhlík, Tomáš

2017-09-01

The article deals with an evaluation of moist air state above counterflow wet-cooling tower fill. The results based on Klimanek & Białecky model are compared with results of Merkel model and generalised Merkel model. Based on the numerical simulation it is shown that temperature is predicted correctly by using generalised Merkel model in the case of saturated or super-saturated air above the fill, but the temperature is underpredicted in the case of unsaturated moist air above the fill. The classical Merkel model always under predicts temperature above the fill. The density of moist air above the fill, which is calculated using generalised Merkel model, is strongly over predicted in the case of unsaturated moist air above the fill.

High-Precision Differential Predictions for Top-Quark Pairs at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, Michal; Heymes, David; Mitov, Alexander

2016-02-01

We present the first complete next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD predictions for differential distributions in the top-quark pair production process at the LHC. Our results are derived from a fully differential partonic Monte Carlo calculation with stable top quarks which involves no approximations beyond the fixed-order truncation of the perturbation series. The NNLO corrections improve the agreement between existing LHC measurements [V. Khachatryan et al. (CMS Collaboration), Eur. Phys. J. C 75, 542 (2015)] and standard model predictions for the top-quark transverse momentum distribution, thus helping alleviate one long-standing discrepancy. The shape of the top-quark pair invariant mass distribution turns out to be stable with respect to radiative corrections beyond NLO which increases the value of this observable as a place to search for physics beyond the standard model. The results presented here provide essential input for parton distribution function fits, implementation of higher-order effects in Monte Carlo generators, as well as top-quark mass and strong coupling determination.

High-Precision Differential Predictions for Top-Quark Pairs at the LHC.

PubMed

Czakon, Michal; Heymes, David; Mitov, Alexander

2016-02-26

We present the first complete next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD predictions for differential distributions in the top-quark pair production process at the LHC. Our results are derived from a fully differential partonic Monte Carlo calculation with stable top quarks which involves no approximations beyond the fixed-order truncation of the perturbation series. The NNLO corrections improve the agreement between existing LHC measurements [V. Khachatryan et al. (CMS Collaboration), Eur. Phys. J. C 75, 542 (2015)] and standard model predictions for the top-quark transverse momentum distribution, thus helping alleviate one long-standing discrepancy. The shape of the top-quark pair invariant mass distribution turns out to be stable with respect to radiative corrections beyond NLO which increases the value of this observable as a place to search for physics beyond the standard model. The results presented here provide essential input for parton distribution function fits, implementation of higher-order effects in Monte Carlo generators, as well as top-quark mass and strong coupling determination.

Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Sande, Brett

2013-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

A Retrieval Model for Both Recognition and Recall.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillund, Gary; Shiffrin, Richard M.

1984-01-01

The Search of Associative Memory (SAM) model for recall is extended by assuming that a familiarity process is used for recognition. The model, formalized in a computer simulation program, correctly predicts a number of findings in the literature as well as results from an experiment on the word-frequency effect. (Author/BW)

The c-index is not proper for the evaluation of $t$-year predicted risks.

PubMed

Blanche, Paul; Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

2018-02-16

We show that the widely used concordance index for time to event outcome is not proper when interest is in predicting a $t$-year risk of an event, for example 10-year mortality. In the situation with a fixed prediction horizon, the concordance index can be higher for a misspecified model than for a correctly specified model. Impropriety happens because the concordance index assesses the order of the event times and not the order of the event status at the prediction horizon. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve does not have this problem and is proper in this context.

Grain growth prediction based on data assimilation by implementing 4DVar on multi-phase-field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Nagao, Hiromichi; Kasuya, Tadashi; Inoue, Junya

2017-12-01

We propose a method to predict grain growth based on data assimilation by using a four-dimensional variational method (4DVar). When implemented on a multi-phase-field model, the proposed method allows us to calculate the predicted grain structures and uncertainties in them that depend on the quality and quantity of the observational data. We confirm through numerical tests involving synthetic data that the proposed method correctly reproduces the true phase-field assumed in advance. Furthermore, it successfully quantifies uncertainties in the predicted grain structures, where such uncertainty quantifications provide valuable information to optimize the experimental design.

[Prediction of histological liver damage in asymptomatic alcoholic patients by means of clinical and laboratory data].

PubMed

Iturriaga, H; Hirsch, S; Bunout, D; Díaz, M; Kelly, M; Silva, G; de la Maza, M P; Petermann, M; Ugarte, G

1993-04-01

Looking for a noninvasive method to predict liver histologic alterations in alcoholic patients without clinical signs of liver failure, we studied 187 chronic alcoholics recently abstinent, divided in 2 series. In the model series (n = 94) several clinical variables and results of common laboratory tests were confronted to the findings of liver biopsies. These were classified in 3 groups: 1. Normal liver; 2. Moderate alterations; 3. Marked alterations, including alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Multivariate methods used were logistic regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART). Both methods entered gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), weight and age as significant and independent variables. Univariate analysis with GGT and AST at different cutoffs were also performed. To predict the presence of any kind of damage (Groups 2 and 3), CART and AST > 30 IU showed the higher sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction, both in the model and validation series. For prediction of marked liver damage, a score based on logistic regression and GGT > 110 IU had the higher efficiencies. It is concluded that GGT and AST are good markers of alcoholic liver damage and that, using sample cutoffs, histologic diagnosis can be correctly predicted in 80% of recently abstinent asymptomatic alcoholics.

Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-10-13

For influenza forecasts generated using dynamical models, forecast inaccuracy is partly attributable to the nonlinear growth of error. As a consequence, quantification of the nonlinear error structure in current forecast models is needed so that this growth can be corrected and forecast skill improved. Here, we inspect the error growth of a compartmental influenza model and find that a robust error structure arises naturally from the nonlinear model dynamics. By counteracting these structural errors, diagnosed using error breeding, we develop a new forecast approach that combines dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques. In retrospective forecasts of historical influenza outbreaks for 95 US cities from 2003 to 2014, overall forecast accuracy for outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and attack rate, are substantially improved for predicted lead times up to 10 weeks. This error growth correction method can be generalized to improve the forecast accuracy of other infectious disease dynamical models.Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.

An analysis of USSPACECOM's space surveillance network sensor tasking methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Jeff M.; Moles, Joseph B.; Wilsey, David G.

1992-12-01

This study provides the basis for the development of a cost/benefit assessment model to determine the effects of alterations to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) on orbital element (OE) set accuracy. It provides a review of current methods used by NORAD and the SSN to gather and process observations, an alternative to the current Gabbard classification method, and the development of a model to determine the effects of observation rate and correction interval on OE set accuracy. The proposed classification scheme is based on satellite J2 perturbations. Specifically, classes were established based on mean motion, eccentricity, and inclination since J2 perturbation effects are functions of only these elements. Model development began by creating representative sensor observations using a highly accurate orbital propagation model. These observations were compared to predicted observations generated using the NORAD Simplified General Perturbation (SGP4) model and differentially corrected using a Bayes, sequential estimation, algorithm. A 10-run Monte Carlo analysis was performed using this model on 12 satellites using 16 different observation rate/correction interval combinations. An ANOVA and confidence interval analysis of the results show that this model does demonstrate the differences in steady state position error based on varying observation rate and correction interval.

Probing Planckian Corrections at the Horizon Scale with LISA Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, Andrea; Pani, Paolo; Cardoso, Vitor; Abdelsalhin, Tiziano; Gualtieri, Leonardo; Ferrari, Valeria

2018-02-01

Several quantum-gravity models of compact objects predict microscopic or even Planckian corrections at the horizon scale. We explore the possibility of measuring two model-independent, smoking-gun effects of these corrections in the gravitational waveform of a compact binary, namely, the absence of tidal heating and the presence of tidal deformability. For events detectable by the future space-based interferometer LISA, we show that the effect of tidal heating dominates and allows one to constrain putative corrections down to the Planck scale. The measurement of the tidal Love numbers with LISA is more challenging but, in optimistic scenarios, it allows us to constrain the compactness of a supermassive exotic compact object down to the Planck scale. Our analysis suggests that highly spinning, supermassive binaries at 1-20 Gpc provide unparalleled tests of quantum-gravity effects at the horizon scale.

Probing Planckian Corrections at the Horizon Scale with LISA Binaries.

PubMed

Maselli, Andrea; Pani, Paolo; Cardoso, Vitor; Abdelsalhin, Tiziano; Gualtieri, Leonardo; Ferrari, Valeria

2018-02-23

Several quantum-gravity models of compact objects predict microscopic or even Planckian corrections at the horizon scale. We explore the possibility of measuring two model-independent, smoking-gun effects of these corrections in the gravitational waveform of a compact binary, namely, the absence of tidal heating and the presence of tidal deformability. For events detectable by the future space-based interferometer LISA, we show that the effect of tidal heating dominates and allows one to constrain putative corrections down to the Planck scale. The measurement of the tidal Love numbers with LISA is more challenging but, in optimistic scenarios, it allows us to constrain the compactness of a supermassive exotic compact object down to the Planck scale. Our analysis suggests that highly spinning, supermassive binaries at 1-20 Gpc provide unparalleled tests of quantum-gravity effects at the horizon scale.

Chemical structure-based predictive model for methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation potential.

PubMed

Meylan, William; Boethling, Robert; Aronson, Dallas; Howard, Philip; Tunkel, Jay

2007-09-01

Many screening-level models exist for predicting aerobic biodegradation potential from chemical structure, but anaerobic biodegradation generally has been ignored by modelers. We used a fragment contribution approach to develop a model for predicting biodegradation potential under methanogenic anaerobic conditions. The new model has 37 fragments (substructures) and classifies a substance as either fast or slow, relative to the potential to be biodegraded in the "serum bottle" anaerobic biodegradation screening test (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Guideline 311). The model correctly classified 90, 77, and 91% of the chemicals in the training set (n = 169) and two independent validation sets (n = 35 and 23), respectively. Accuracy of predictions of fast and slow degradation was equal for training-set chemicals, but fast-degradation predictions were less accurate than slow-degradation predictions for the validation sets. Analysis of the signs of the fragment coefficients for this and the other (aerobic) Biowin models suggests that in the context of simple group contribution models, the majority of positive and negative structural influences on ultimate degradation are the same for aerobic and methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation.

Chroma intra prediction based on inter-channel correlation for HEVC.

PubMed

Zhang, Xingyu; Gisquet, Christophe; François, Edouard; Zou, Feng; Au, Oscar C

2014-01-01

In this paper, we investigate a new inter-channel coding mode called LM mode proposed for the next generation video coding standard called high efficiency video coding. This mode exploits inter-channel correlation using reconstructed luma to predict chroma linearly with parameters derived from neighboring reconstructed luma and chroma pixels at both encoder and decoder to avoid overhead signaling. In this paper, we analyze the LM mode and prove that the LM parameters for predicting original chroma and reconstructed chroma are statistically the same. We also analyze the error sensitivity of the LM parameters. We identify some LM mode problematic situations and propose three novel LM-like modes called LMA, LML, and LMO to address the situations. To limit the increase in complexity due to the LM-like modes, we propose some fast algorithms with the help of some new cost functions. We further identify some potentially-problematic conditions in the parameter estimation (including regression dilution problem) and introduce a novel model correction technique to detect and correct those conditions. Simulation results suggest that considerable BD-rate reduction can be achieved by the proposed LM-like modes and model correction technique. In addition, the performance gain of the two techniques appears to be essentially additive when combined.

Improvement of forecast skill for severe weather by merging radar-based extrapolation and storm-scale NWP corrected forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaili; Wong, Wai-Kin; Hong, Yang; Liu, Liping; Dong, Jili; Xue, Ming

2015-03-01

The primary objective of this study is to improve the performance of deterministic high resolution rainfall forecasts caused by severe storms by merging an extrapolation radar-based scheme with a storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Effectiveness of Multi-scale Tracking and Forecasting Radar Echoes (MTaRE) model was compared with that of a storm-scale NWP model named Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for forecasting a violent tornado event that developed over parts of western and much of central Oklahoma on May 24, 2011. Then the bias corrections were performed to improve the forecast accuracy of ARPS forecasts. Finally, the corrected ARPS forecast and radar-based extrapolation were optimally merged by using a hyperbolic tangent weight scheme. The comparison of forecast skill between MTaRE and ARPS in high spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° and high temporal resolution of 5 min showed that MTaRE outperformed ARPS in terms of index of agreement and mean absolute error (MAE). MTaRE had a better Critical Success Index (CSI) for less than 20-min lead times and was comparable to ARPS for 20- to 50-min lead times, while ARPS had a better CSI for more than 50-min lead times. Bias correction significantly improved ARPS forecasts in terms of MAE and index of agreement, although the CSI of corrected ARPS forecasts was similar to that of the uncorrected ARPS forecasts. Moreover, optimally merging results using hyperbolic tangent weight scheme further improved the forecast accuracy and became more stable.

The development and implementation of stroke risk prediction model in National Health Insurance Service's personal health record.

PubMed

Lee, Jae-Woo; Lim, Hyun-Sun; Kim, Dong-Wook; Shin, Soon-Ae; Kim, Jinkwon; Yoo, Bora; Cho, Kyung-Hee

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to build a 10-year stroke prediction model and categorize a probability of stroke using the Korean national health examination data. Then it intended to develop the algorithm to provide a personalized warning on the basis of each user's level of stroke risk and a lifestyle correction message about the stroke risk factors. Subject to national health examinees in 2002-2003, the stroke prediction model identified when stroke was first diagnosed by following-up the cohort until 2013 and estimated a 10-year probability of stroke. It sorted the user's individual probability of stroke into five categories - normal, slightly high, high, risky, very risky, according to the five ranges of average probability of stroke in comparison to total population - less than 50 percentile, 50-70, 70-90, 90-99.9, more than 99.9 percentile, and constructed the personalized warning and lifestyle correction messages by each category. Risk factors in stroke risk model include the age, BMI, cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status and intensity, physical activity, alcohol drinking, past history (hypertension, coronary heart disease) and family history (stroke, coronary heart disease). The AUC values of stroke risk prediction model from the external validation data set were 0.83 in men and 0.82 in women, which showed a high predictive power. The probability of stroke within 10 years for men in normal group (less than 50 percentile) was less than 3.92% and those in very risky group (top 0.01 percentile) was 66.2% and over. The women's probability of stroke within 10 years was less than 3.77% in normal group (less than 50 percentile) and 55.24% and over in very risky group. This study developed the stroke risk prediction model and the personalized warning and the lifestyle correction message based on the national health examination data and uploaded them to the personal health record service called My Health Bank in the health information website - Health iN. By doing so, it urged medical users to strengthen the motivation of health management and induced changes in their health behaviors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly

2014-01-01

Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an area or wanting to direct gas-drilling efforts away from pygmy rabbit habitat may want to consider both models in an ensemble manner, where more confidence is placed in mapped areas (i.e., pixels) for which both models agree than for areas where there is model disagreement.

Microscopic vision modeling method by direct mapping analysis for micro-gripping system with stereo light microscope.

PubMed

Wang, Yuezong; Zhao, Zhizhong; Wang, Junshuai

2016-04-01

We present a novel and high-precision microscopic vision modeling method, which can be used for 3D data reconstruction in micro-gripping system with stereo light microscope. This method consists of four parts: image distortion correction, disparity distortion correction, initial vision model and residual compensation model. First, the method of image distortion correction is proposed. Image data required by image distortion correction comes from stereo images of calibration sample. The geometric features of image distortions can be predicted though the shape deformation of lines constructed by grid points in stereo images. Linear and polynomial fitting methods are applied to correct image distortions. Second, shape deformation features of disparity distribution are discussed. The method of disparity distortion correction is proposed. Polynomial fitting method is applied to correct disparity distortion. Third, a microscopic vision model is derived, which consists of two models, i.e., initial vision model and residual compensation model. We derive initial vision model by the analysis of direct mapping relationship between object and image points. Residual compensation model is derived based on the residual analysis of initial vision model. The results show that with maximum reconstruction distance of 4.1mm in X direction, 2.9mm in Y direction and 2.25mm in Z direction, our model achieves a precision of 0.01mm in X and Y directions and 0.015mm in Z direction. Comparison of our model with traditional pinhole camera model shows that two kinds of models have a similar reconstruction precision of X coordinates. However, traditional pinhole camera model has a lower precision of Y and Z coordinates than our model. The method proposed in this paper is very helpful for the micro-gripping system based on SLM microscopic vision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting translational deformity following opening-wedge osteotomy for lower limb realignment.

PubMed

Barksfield, Richard C; Monsell, Fergal P

2015-11-01

An opening-wedge osteotomy is well recognised for the management of limb deformity and requires an understanding of the principles of geometry. Translation at the osteotomy is needed when the osteotomy is performed away from the centre of rotation of angulation (CORA), but the amount of translation varies with the distance from the CORA. This translation enables proximal and distal axes on either side of the proposed osteotomy to realign. We have developed two experimental models to establish whether the amount of translation required (based on the translation deformity created) can be predicted based upon simple trigonometry. A predictive algorithm was derived where translational deformity was predicted as 2(tan α × d), where α represents 50 % of the desired angular correction, and d is the distance of the desired osteotomy site from the CORA. A simulated model was developed using TraumaCad online digital software suite (Brainlab AG, Germany). Osteotomies were simulated in the distal femur, proximal tibia and distal tibia for nine sets of lower limb scanograms at incremental distances from the CORA and the resulting translational deformity recorded. There was strong correlation between the distance of the osteotomy from the CORA and simulated translation deformity for distal femoral deformities (correlation coefficient 0.99, p < 0.0001), proximal tibial deformities (correlation coefficient 0.93-0.99, p < 0.0001) and distal tibial deformities (correlation coefficient 0.99, p < 0.0001). There was excellent agreement between the predictive algorithm and simulated translational deformity for all nine simulations (correlation coefficient 0.93-0.99, p < 0.0001). Translational deformity following corrective osteotomy for lower limb deformity can be anticipated and predicted based upon the angular correction and the distance between the planned osteotomy site and the CORA.

An improved simulation of the 2015 El Niño event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong-Hua; Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan

2017-09-01

Large uncertainties exist in real-time predictions of the 2015 El Niño event, which have systematic intensity biases that are strongly model-dependent. It is critically important to characterize those model biases so they can be reduced appropriately. In this study, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-based approach was applied to an intermediate coupled model (ICM) equipped with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The CNOP-based approach was used to quantify prediction errors that can be attributed to initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs). Two key MPs were considered in the ICM: one represents the intensity of the thermocline effect, and the other represents the relative coupling intensity between the ocean and atmosphere. Two experiments were performed to illustrate the effects of error corrections, one with a standard simulation and another with an optimized simulation in which errors in the ICs and MPs derived from the CNOP-based approach were optimally corrected. The results indicate that simulations of the 2015 El Niño event can be effectively improved by using CNOP-derived error correcting. In particular, the El Niño intensity in late 2015 was adequately captured when simulations were started from early 2015. Quantitatively, the Niño3.4 SST index simulated in Dec. 2015 increased to 2.8 °C in the optimized simulation, compared with only 1.5 °C in the standard simulation. The feasibility and effectiveness of using the CNOP-based technique to improve ENSO simulations are demonstrated in the context of the 2015 El Niño event. The limitations and further applications are also discussed.

Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xin; Wang, HuaNing; Dai, XingHua

2012-10-01

The mispredictive costs of flaring and non-flaring samples are different for different applications of solar flare prediction. Hence, solar flare prediction is considered a cost sensitive problem. A cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is built by modifying the basic decision tree algorithm. Inconsistency rate with the exhaustive search strategy is used to determine the optimal combination of magnetic field parameters in an active region. These selected parameters are applied as the inputs of the solar flare prediction model. The performance of the cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is evaluated for the different thresholds of solar flares. It is found that more flaring samples are correctly predicted and more non-flaring samples are wrongly predicted with the increase of the cost for wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples, and the larger cost of wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples is required for the higher threshold of solar flares. This can be considered as the guide line for choosing proper cost to meet the requirements in different applications.

New universal attractor in nonminimally coupled gravity: Linear inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racioppi, Antonio

2018-06-01

Once quantum corrections are taken into account, the strong coupling limit of the ξ -attractor models (in metric gravity) might depart from the usual Starobinsky solution and move into linear inflation. Furthermore, it is well known that the metric and Palatini formulations of gravity lead to different inflationary predictions in presence of nonminimally couplings between gravity and the inflaton. In this paper, we show that for a certain class of nonminimally coupled models, loop corrections will lead to a linear inflation attractor regardless of the adopted gravity formulation.

Reliability of IGBT in a STATCOM for Harmonic Compensation and Power Factor Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopi Reddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M; Ozpineci, Burak

With smart grid integration, there is a need to characterize reliability of a power system by including reliability of power semiconductors in grid related applications. In this paper, the reliability of IGBTs in a STATCOM application is presented for two different applications, power factor correction and harmonic elimination. The STATCOM model is developed in EMTP, and analytical equations for average conduction losses in an IGBT and a diode are derived and compared with experimental data. A commonly used reliability model is used to predict reliability of IGBT.

Methanol clusters (CH3OH)n: putative global minimum-energy structures from model potentials and dispersion-corrected density functional theory.

PubMed

Kazachenko, Sergey; Bulusu, Satya; Thakkar, Ajit J

2013-06-14

Putative global minima are reported for methanol clusters (CH3OH)n with n ≤ 15. The predictions are based on global optimization of three intermolecular potential energy models followed by local optimization and single-point energy calculations using two variants of dispersion-corrected density functional theory. Recurring structural motifs include folded and/or twisted rings, folded rings with a short branch, and stacked rings. Many of the larger structures are stabilized by weak C-H···O bonds.

Model-data assimilation of multiple phenological observations to constrain and predict leaf area index.

PubMed

Viskari, Toni; Hardiman, Brady; Desai, Ankur R; Dietze, Michael C

2015-03-01

Our limited ability to accurately simulate leaf phenology is a leading source of uncertainty in models of ecosystem carbon cycling. We evaluate if continuously updating canopy state variables with observations is beneficial for predicting phenological events. We employed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) to update predictions of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf extension using tower-based photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) data for 2002-2005 at Willow Creek, Wisconsin, USA, a mature, even-aged, northern hardwood, deciduous forest. The ecosystem demography model version 2 (ED2) was used as the prediction model, forced by offline climate data. EAKF successfully incorporated information from both the observations and model predictions weighted by their respective uncertainties. The resulting. estimate reproduced the observed leaf phenological cycle in the spring and the fall better than a parametric model prediction. These results indicate that during spring the observations contribute most in determining the correct bud-burst date, after which the model performs well, but accurately modeling fall leaf senesce requires continuous model updating from observations. While the predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 precedes tower observations and unassimilated model predictions in the spring, overall the prediction follows observed NEE better than the model alone. Our results show state data assimilation successfully simulates the evolution of plant leaf phenology and improves model predictions of forest NEE.

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Yi; Huang, Chen-Yuan; Su, Chwen-Tzeng; Lin, Chen-Chiang

2014-01-01

Objectives Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone. Methods In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models. Results Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan's nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear). Conclusions Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears. PMID:24733553

Transient Spectra in TDDFT: Corrections and Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkhill, John; Nguyen, Triet

We introduce an atomistic, all-electron, black-box electronic structure code to simulate transient absorption (TA) spectra and apply it to simulate pyrazole and a GFP chromophore derivative. The method is an application of OSCF2, our dissipative extension of time-dependent density functional theory. We compare our simulated spectra directly with recent ultra-fast spectroscopic experiments, showing that they are usefully predicted. We also relate bleaches in the TA signal to Fermi-blocking which would be missed in a simplified model. An important ingredient in the method is the stationary-TDDFT correction scheme recently put forwards by Fischer, Govind, and Cramer which allows us to overcome a limitation of adiabatic TDDFT. We demonstrate that OSCF2 is able to predict both the energies of bleaches and induced absorptions, as well as the decay of the transient spectrum, with only the molecular structure as input. With remaining time we will discuss corrections which resolve the non-resonant behavior of driven TDDFT, and correlated corrections to mean-field dynamics.

Models for H₃ receptor antagonist activity of sulfonylurea derivatives.

PubMed

Khatri, Naveen; Madan, A K

2014-03-01

The histamine H₃ receptor has been perceived as an auspicious target for the treatment of various central and peripheral nervous system diseases. In present study, a wide variety of 60 2D and 3D molecular descriptors (MDs) were successfully utilized for the development of models for the prediction of antagonist activity of sulfonylurea derivatives for histamine H₃ receptors. Models were developed through decision tree (DT), random forest (RF) and moving average analysis (MAA). Dragon software version 6.0.28 was employed for calculation of values of diverse MDs of each analogue involved in the data set. The DT classified and correctly predicted the input data with an impressive non-error rate of 94% in the training set and 82.5% during cross validation. RF correctly classified the analogues into active and inactive with a non-error rate of 79.3%. The MAA based models predicted the antagonist histamine H₃ receptor activity with non-error rate up to 90%. Active ranges of the proposed MAA based models not only exhibited high potency but also showed improved safety as indicated by relatively high values of selectivity index. The statistical significance of the models was assessed through sensitivity, specificity, non-error rate, Matthew's correlation coefficient and intercorrelation analysis. Proposed models offer vast potential for providing lead structures for development of potent but safe H₃ receptor antagonist sulfonylurea derivatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct interpretation of ensemble 3 soil moisture information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an inst...

Full-wave acoustic and thermal modeling of transcranial ultrasound propagation and investigation of skull-induced aberration correction techniques: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Kyriakou, Adamos; Neufeld, Esra; Werner, Beat; Székely, Gábor; Kuster, Niels

2015-01-01

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tcFUS) is an attractive noninvasive modality for neurosurgical interventions. The presence of the skull, however, compromises the efficiency of tcFUS therapy, as its heterogeneous nature and acoustic characteristics induce significant distortion of the acoustic energy deposition, focal shifts, and thermal gain decrease. Phased-array transducers allow for partial compensation of skull-induced aberrations by application of precalculated phase and amplitude corrections. An integrated numerical framework allowing for 3D full-wave, nonlinear acoustic and thermal simulations has been developed and applied to tcFUS. Simulations were performed to investigate the impact of skull aberrations, the possibility of extending the treatment envelope, and adverse secondary effects. The simulated setup comprised an idealized model of the ExAblate Neuro and a detailed MR-based anatomical head model. Four different approaches were employed to calculate aberration corrections (analytical calculation of the aberration corrections disregarding tissue heterogeneities; a semi-analytical ray-tracing approach compensating for the presence of the skull; two simulation-based time-reversal approaches with and without pressure amplitude corrections which account for the entire anatomy). These impact of these approaches on the pressure and temperature distributions were evaluated for 22 brain-targets. While (semi-)analytical approaches failed to induced high pressure or ablative temperatures in any but the targets in the close vicinity of the geometric focus, simulation-based approaches indicate the possibility of considerably extending the treatment envelope (including targets below the transducer level and locations several centimeters off the geometric focus), generation of sharper foci, and increased targeting accuracy. While the prediction of achievable aberration correction appears to be unaffected by the detailed bone-structure, proper consideration of inhomogeneity is required to predict the pressure distribution for given steering parameters. Simulation-based approaches to calculate aberration corrections may aid in the extension of the tcFUS treatment envelope as well as predict and avoid secondary effects (standing waves, skull heating). Due to their superior performance, simulationbased techniques may prove invaluable in the amelioration of skull-induced aberration effects in tcFUS therapy. The next steps are to investigate shear-wave-induced effects in order to reliably exclude secondary hot-spots, and to develop comprehensive uncertainty assessment and validation procedures.

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.

1989-01-01

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool.Within this context, we assimilate act...

Predicting introductory programming performance: A multi-institutional multivariate study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergin, Susan; Reilly, Ronan

2006-12-01

A model for predicting student performance on introductory programming modules is presented. The model uses attributes identified in a study carried out at four third-level institutions in the Republic of Ireland. Four instruments were used to collect the data and over 25 attributes were examined. A data reduction technique was applied and a logistic regression model using 10-fold stratified cross validation was developed. The model used three attributes: Leaving Certificate Mathematics result (final mathematics examination at second level), number of hours playing computer games while taking the module and programming self-esteem. Prediction success was significant with 80% of students correctly classified. The model also works well on a per-institution level. A discussion on the implications of the model is provided and future work is outlined.

Fragmentation of {sup 14}N, {sup 16}O, {sup 20}Ne, and {sup 24}Mg nuclei at 290 to 1000 MeV/nucleon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeitlin, C.; Miller, J.; Guetersloh, S.

We report fragmentation cross sections measured at 0 deg. for beams of {sup 14}N, {sup 16}O, {sup 20}Ne, and {sup 24}Mg ions, at energies ranging from 290 MeV/nucleon to 1000 MeV/nucleon. Beams were incident on targets of C, CH{sub 2}, Al, Cu, Sn, and Pb, with the C and CH{sub 2} target data used to obtain hydrogen-target cross sections. Using methods established in earlier work, cross sections obtained with both large-acceptance and small-acceptance detectors are extracted from the data and, when necessary, corrected for acceptance effects. The large-acceptance data yield cross sections for fragments with charges approximately half of themore » beam charge and above, with minimal corrections. Cross sections for lighter fragments are obtained from small-acceptance spectra, with more significant, model-dependent corrections that account for the fragment angular distributions. Results for both charge-changing and fragment production cross sections are compared to the predictions of the Los Alamos version of the quark gluon string model (LAQGSM) as well as the NASA Nuclear Fragmentation (NUCFRG2) model and the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport System (PHITS) model. For all beams and targets, cross sections for fragments as light as He are compared to the models. Estimates of multiplicity-weighted helium production cross sections are obtained from the data and compared to PHITS and LAQGSM predictions. Summary statistics show that the level of agreement between data and predictions is slightly better for PHITS than for either NUCFRG2 or LAQGSM.« less

Predictive modeling for corrective maintenance of imaging devices from machine logs.

PubMed

Patil, Ravindra B; Patil, Meru A; Ravi, Vidya; Naik, Sarif

2017-07-01

In the cost sensitive healthcare industry, an unplanned downtime of diagnostic and therapy imaging devices can be a burden on the financials of both the hospitals as well as the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). In the current era of connectivity, it is easier to get these devices connected to a standard monitoring station. Once the system is connected, OEMs can monitor the health of these devices remotely and take corrective actions by providing preventive maintenance thereby avoiding major unplanned downtime. In this article, we present an overall methodology of predicting failure of these devices well before customer experiences it. We use data-driven approach based on machine learning to predict failures in turn resulting in reduced machine downtime, improved customer satisfaction and cost savings for the OEMs. One of the use-case of predicting component failure of PHILIPS iXR system is explained in this article.

Practical estimate of gradient nonlinearity for implementation of apparent diffusion coefficient bias correction.

PubMed

Malkyarenko, Dariya I; Chenevert, Thomas L

2014-12-01

To describe an efficient procedure to empirically characterize gradient nonlinearity and correct for the corresponding apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) bias on a clinical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner. Spatial nonlinearity scalars for individual gradient coils along superior and right directions were estimated via diffusion measurements of an isotropicic e-water phantom. Digital nonlinearity model from an independent scanner, described in the literature, was rescaled by system-specific scalars to approximate 3D bias correction maps. Correction efficacy was assessed by comparison to unbiased ADC values measured at isocenter. Empirically estimated nonlinearity scalars were confirmed by geometric distortion measurements of a regular grid phantom. The applied nonlinearity correction for arbitrarily oriented diffusion gradients reduced ADC bias from 20% down to 2% at clinically relevant offsets both for isotropic and anisotropic media. Identical performance was achieved using either corrected diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) intensities or corrected b-values for each direction in brain and ice-water. Direction-average trace image correction was adequate only for isotropic medium. Empiric scalar adjustment of an independent gradient nonlinearity model adequately described DWI bias for a clinical scanner. Observed efficiency of implemented ADC bias correction quantitatively agreed with previous theoretical predictions and numerical simulations. The described procedure provides an independent benchmark for nonlinearity bias correction of clinical MRI scanners.

Anomalous Subsidence at Rifted Continental Margins: Distinguishing Mantle Dynamic Topography from Anomalous Oceanic Crustal Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, L.; Kusznir, N. J.

2012-12-01

It has been proposed that some continental rifted margins have anomalous subsidence histories and that at breakup they were elevated at shallower bathymetries than the isostatic response of classical rift models (McKenzie 1978) would predict. The existence of anomalous syn or post breakup subsidence of this form would have important implications for our understanding of the geodynamics of continental breakup and rifted continental margin formation, margin subsidence history and the evolution of syn and post breakup depositional systems. We have investigated three rifted continental margins; the Gulf of Aden, Galicia Bank and the Gulf of Lions, to determine whether the oceanic crust in the ocean-continent transition of these margins has present day anomalous subsidence and if so, whether it is caused by mantle dynamic topography or anomalous oceanic crustal thickness. Residual depth anomalies (RDA) corrected for sediment loading, using flexural backstripping and decompaction, have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries in order to identify anomalous oceanic bathymetry and subsidence at these margins. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions from Crosby & McKenzie (2009). Non-zero sediment corrected RDAs may result from anomalous oceanic crustal thickness with respect to the global average, or from mantle dynamic uplift. Positive RDAs may result from thicker than average oceanic crust or mantle dynamic uplift; negative RDAs may result from thinner than average oceanic crust or mantle dynamic subsidence. Gravity inversion incorporating a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and sediment thickness from 2D seismic data has been used to determine Moho depth and oceanic crustal basement thickness. The reference Moho depths used in the gravity inversion have been calibrated against seismic refraction Moho depths. The gravity inversion crustal basement thicknesses together with Airy isostasy have been used to predict a "synthetic" gravity derived RDA. Sediment corrected RDA for oceanic crust in the Gulf of Aden are positive (+750m) indicating anomalous uplift with respect to normal subsidence. Gravity inversion predicts normal thickness oceanic crust and a zero "synthetic" gravity derived RDA in the oceanic domain. The difference between the positive sediment corrected RDA and the zero "synthetic" gravity derived RDA, implies that the anomalous subsidence reported in the Gulf of Aden is the result of mantle dynamic uplift. For the oceanic crust outboard of Galicia Bank both the sediment corrected RDA and the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA are negative (-800m) and of similar magnitude, indicating anomalous subsidence, which is the result of anomalously thin oceanic crust, not mantle dynamic topography. We conclude that there is negligible mantle dynamic topography influencing the Galicia Bank region. In the Gulf of Lions, gravity inversion predicts thinner than average oceanic crust. Both sediment corrected RDA (-1km) and "synthetic" gravity derived RDA (-500m) are negative. The more negative sediment corrected RDA compared with the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA implies that the anomalous subsidence in the Gulf of Lions is the result of mantle dynamic subsidence as well as thinner than average oceanic crust.

Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in transonic wind-tunnel/flight-test correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, E. M.

1982-01-01

The capability for calculating transonic flows for realistic configurations and conditions is discussed. Various phenomena which were modeled are shown to have the same order of magnitude on the influence of predicted results. It is concluded that CFD can make the following contributions to the task of correlating wind tunnel and flight test data: some effects of geometry differences and aeroelastic distortion can be predicted; tunnel wall effects can be assessed and corrected for; and the effects of model support systems and free stream nonuniformities can be modeled.

Visual Predictive Check in Models with Time-Varying Input Function.

PubMed

Largajolli, Anna; Bertoldo, Alessandra; Campioni, Marco; Cobelli, Claudio

2015-11-01

The nonlinear mixed effects models are commonly used modeling techniques in the pharmaceutical research as they enable the characterization of the individual profiles together with the population to which the individuals belong. To ensure a correct use of them is fundamental to provide powerful diagnostic tools that are able to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. The visual predictive check (VPC) is a commonly used tool that helps the user to check by visual inspection if the model is able to reproduce the variability and the main trend of the observed data. However, the simulation from the model is not always trivial, for example, when using models with time-varying input function (IF). In this class of models, there is a potential mismatch between each set of simulated parameters and the associated individual IF which can cause an incorrect profile simulation. We introduce a refinement of the VPC by taking in consideration a correlation term (the Mahalanobis or normalized Euclidean distance) that helps the association of the correct IF with the individual set of simulated parameters. We investigate and compare its performance with the standard VPC in models of the glucose and insulin system applied on real and simulated data and in a simulated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) example. The newly proposed VPC performance appears to be better with respect to the standard VPC especially for the models with big variability in the IF where the probability of simulating incorrect profiles is higher.

Enhanced propagation modeling of directional aviation noise: A hybrid parabolic equation-fast field program method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenbaum, Joyce E.

2011-12-01

Commercial air traffic is anticipated to increase rapidly in the coming years. The impact of aviation noise on communities surrounding airports is, therefore, a growing concern. Accurate prediction of noise can help to mitigate the impact on communities and foster smoother integration of aerospace engineering advances. The problem of accurate sound level prediction requires careful inclusion of all mechanisms that affect propagation, in addition to correct source characterization. Terrain, ground type, meteorological effects, and source directivity can have a substantial influence on the noise level. Because they are difficult to model, these effects are often included only by rough approximation. This dissertation presents a model designed for sound propagation over uneven terrain, with mixed ground type and realistic meteorological conditions. The model is a hybrid of two numerical techniques: the parabolic equation (PE) and fast field program (FFP) methods, which allow for physics-based inclusion of propagation effects and ensure the low frequency content, a factor in community impact, is predicted accurately. Extension of the hybrid model to a pseudo-three-dimensional representation allows it to produce aviation noise contour maps in the standard form. In order for the model to correctly characterize aviation noise sources, a method of representing arbitrary source directivity patterns was developed for the unique form of the parabolic equation starting field. With this advancement, the model can represent broadband, directional moving sound sources, traveling along user-specified paths. This work was prepared for possible use in the research version of the sound propagation module in the Federal Aviation Administration's new standard predictive tool.

Assessing the prediction accuracy of cure in the Cox proportional hazards cure model: an application to breast cancer data.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Hamada, Chikuma

2014-01-01

A cure rate model is a survival model incorporating the cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It is a powerful statistical tool for prognostic studies, especially in cancer. The cure rate is important for making treatment decisions in clinical practice. The proportional hazards (PH) cure model can predict the cure rate for each patient. This contains a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of the cure rate estimated by the Cox PH cure model is required, as there has been a lack of previous research in this area. We used the Cox PH cure model for the breast cancer data; however, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) could not be estimated because many patients were censored. In this study, we used imputation-based AUCs to assess the predictive accuracy of the cure rate from the PH cure model. We examined the precision of these AUCs using simulation studies. The results demonstrated that the imputation-based AUCs were estimable and their biases were negligibly small in many cases, although ordinary AUC could not be estimated. Additionally, we introduced the bias-correction method of imputation-based AUCs and found that the bias-corrected estimate successfully compensated the overestimation in the simulation studies. We also illustrated the estimation of the imputation-based AUCs using breast cancer data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Application of Statistical Thermodynamics To Predict the Adsorption Properties of Polypeptides in Reversed-Phase HPLC.

PubMed

Tarasova, Irina A; Goloborodko, Anton A; Perlova, Tatyana Y; Pridatchenko, Marina L; Gorshkov, Alexander V; Evreinov, Victor V; Ivanov, Alexander R; Gorshkov, Mikhail V

2015-07-07

The theory of critical chromatography for biomacromolecules (BioLCCC) describes polypeptide retention in reversed-phase HPLC using the basic principles of statistical thermodynamics. However, whether this theory correctly depicts a variety of empirical observations and laws introduced for peptide chromatography over the last decades remains to be determined. In this study, by comparing theoretical results with experimental data, we demonstrate that the BioLCCC: (1) fits the empirical dependence of the polypeptide retention on the amino acid sequence length with R(2) > 0.99 and allows in silico determination of the linear regression coefficients of the log-length correction in the additive model for arbitrary sequences and lengths and (2) predicts the distribution coefficients of polypeptides with an accuracy from 0.98 to 0.99 R(2). The latter enables direct calculation of the retention factors for given solvent compositions and modeling of the migration dynamics of polypeptides separated under isocratic or gradient conditions. The obtained results demonstrate that the suggested theory correctly relates the main aspects of polypeptide separation in reversed-phase HPLC.

Target/error overlap in jargonaphasia: The case for a one-source model, lexical and non-lexical summation, and the special status of correct responses.

PubMed

Olson, Andrew; Halloran, Elizabeth; Romani, Cristina

2015-12-01

We present three jargonaphasic patients who made phonological errors in naming, repetition and reading. We analyse target/response overlap using statistical models to answer three questions: 1) Is there a single phonological source for errors or two sources, one for target-related errors and a separate source for abstruse errors? 2) Can correct responses be predicted by the same distribution used to predict errors or do they show a completion boost (CB)? 3) Is non-lexical and lexical information summed during reading and repetition? The answers were clear. 1) Abstruse errors did not require a separate distribution created by failure to access word forms. Abstruse and target-related errors were the endpoints of a single overlap distribution. 2) Correct responses required a special factor, e.g., a CB or lexical/phonological feedback, to preserve their integrity. 3) Reading and repetition required separate lexical and non-lexical contributions that were combined at output. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Postprocessing for Air Quality Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Monache, L.

2017-12-01

In recent year, air quality (AQ) forecasting has made significant progress towards better predictions with the goal of protecting the public from harmful pollutants. This progress is the results of improvements in weather and chemical transport models, their coupling, and more accurate emission inventories (e.g., with the development of new algorithms to account in near real-time for fires). Nevertheless, AQ predictions are still affected at times by significant biases which stem from limitations in both weather and chemistry transport models. Those are the result of numerical approximations and the poor representation (and understanding) of important physical and chemical process. Moreover, although the quality of emission inventories has been significantly improved, they are still one of the main sources of uncertainties in AQ predictions. For operational real-time AQ forecasting, a significant portion of these biases can be reduced with the implementation of postprocessing methods. We will review some of the techniques that have been proposed to reduce both systematic and random errors of AQ predictions, and improve the correlation between predictions and observations of ground-level ozone and surface particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). These methods, which can be applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions, include simple bias-correction techniques, corrections inspired by the Kalman filter, regression methods, and the more recently developed analog-based algorithms. These approaches will be compared and contrasted, and strength and weaknesses of each will be discussed.

Decision-support models for empiric antibiotic selection in Gram-negative bloodstream infections.

PubMed

MacFadden, D R; Coburn, B; Shah, N; Robicsek, A; Savage, R; Elligsen, M; Daneman, N

2018-04-25

Early empiric antibiotic therapy in patients can improve clinical outcomes in Gram-negative bacteraemia. However, the widespread prevalence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens compromises our ability to provide adequate therapy while minimizing use of broad antibiotics. We sought to determine whether readily available electronic medical record data could be used to develop predictive models for decision support in Gram-negative bacteraemia. We performed a multi-centre cohort study, in Canada and the USA, of hospitalized patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection from April 2010 to March 2015. We analysed multivariable models for prediction of antibiotic susceptibility at two empiric windows: Gram-stain-guided and pathogen-guided treatment. Decision-support models for empiric antibiotic selection were developed based on three clinical decision thresholds of acceptable adequate coverage (80%, 90% and 95%). A total of 1832 patients with Gram-negative bacteraemia were evaluated. Multivariable models showed good discrimination across countries and at both Gram-stain-guided (12 models, areas under the curve (AUCs) 0.68-0.89, optimism-corrected AUCs 0.63-0.85) and pathogen-guided (12 models, AUCs 0.75-0.98, optimism-corrected AUCs 0.64-0.95) windows. Compared to antibiogram-guided therapy, decision-support models of antibiotic selection incorporating individual patient characteristics and prior culture results have the potential to increase use of narrower-spectrum antibiotics (in up to 78% of patients) while reducing inadequate therapy. Multivariable models using readily available epidemiologic factors can be used to predict antimicrobial susceptibility in infecting pathogens with reasonable discriminatory ability. Implementation of sequential predictive models for real-time individualized empiric antibiotic decision-making has the potential to both optimize adequate coverage for patients while minimizing overuse of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and therefore requires further prospective evaluation. Readily available epidemiologic risk factors can be used to predict susceptibility of Gram-negative organisms among patients with bacteraemia, using automated decision-making models. Copyright © 2018 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vitamin D and ferritin correlation with chronic neck pain using standard statistics and a novel artificial neural network prediction model.

PubMed

Eloqayli, Haytham; Al-Yousef, Ali; Jaradat, Raid

2018-02-15

Despite the high prevalence of chronic neck pain, there is limited consensus about the primary etiology, risk factors, diagnostic criteria and therapeutic outcome. Here, we aimed to determine if Ferritin and Vitamin D are modifiable risk factors with chronic neck pain using slandered statistics and artificial intelligence neural network (ANN). Fifty-four patients with chronic neck pain treated between February 2016 and August 2016 in King Abdullah University Hospital and 54 patients age matched controls undergoing outpatient or minor procedures were enrolled. Patients and control demographic parameters, height, weight and single measurement of serum vitamin D, Vitamin B12, ferritin, calcium, phosphorus, zinc were obtained. An ANN prediction model was developed. The statistical analysis reveals that patients with chronic neck pain have significantly lower serum Vitamin D and Ferritin (p-value <.05). 90% of patients with chronic neck pain were females. Multilayer Feed Forward Neural Network with Back Propagation(MFFNN) prediction model were developed and designed based on vitamin D and ferritin as input variables and CNP as output. The ANN model output results show that, 92 out of 108 samples were correctly classified with 85% classification accuracy. Although Iron and vitamin D deficiency cannot be isolated as the sole risk factors of chronic neck pain, they should be considered as two modifiable risk. The high prevalence of chronic neck pain, hypovitaminosis D and low ferritin amongst women is of concern. Bioinformatics predictions with artificial neural network can be of future benefit in classification and prediction models for chronic neck pain. We hope this initial work will encourage a future larger cohort study addressing vitamin D and iron correction as modifiable factors and the application of artificial intelligence models in clinical practice.

Predicting Recreational Water Quality Using Turbidity in the Cuyahoga River, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, 2004-7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brady, Amie M.G.; Bushon, Rebecca N.; Plona, Meg B.

2009-01-01

The Cuyahoga River within Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP) in Ohio is often impaired for recreational use because of elevated concentrations of bacteria, which are indicators of fecal contamination. During the recreational seasons (May through August) of 2004 through 2007, samples were collected at two river sites, one upstream of and one centrally-located within CVNP. Bacterial concentrations and turbidity were determined, and streamflow at time of sampling and rainfall amounts over the previous 24 hours prior to sampling were ascertained. Statistical models to predict Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations were developed for each site (with data from 2004 through 2006) and tested during an independent year (2007). At Jaite, a sampling site near the center of CVNP, the predictive model performed better than the traditional method of determining the current day's water quality using the previous day's E. coli concentration. During 2007, the Jaite model, based on turbidity, produced more correct responses (81 percent) and fewer false negatives (3.2 percent) than the traditional method (68 and 26 percent, respectively). At Old Portage, a sampling site just upstream from CVNP, a predictive model with turbidity and rainfall as explanatory variables did not perform as well as the traditional method. The Jaite model was used to estimate water quality at three other sites in the park; although it did not perform as well as the traditional method, it performed well - yielding between 68 and 91 percent correct responses. Further research would be necessary to determine whether using the Jaite model to predict recreational water quality elsewhere on the river would provide accurate results.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Coastal Morphodynamic Storm Response at Fire Island, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K.; Adams, P. N.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.; Brenner, O.

2013-12-01

Site-specific probabilistic models of shoreline change are useful because they are derived from direct observations so that local factors, which greatly influence coastal response, are inherently considered by the model. Fire Island, a 50-km barrier island off Long Island, New York, is periodically subject to large storms, whose waves and storm surge dramatically alter beach morphology. Nor'Ida, which impacted the Fire Island coast in 2009, was one of the larger storms to occur in the early 2000s. In this study, we improve upon a Bayesian Network (BN) model informed with historical data to predict shoreline change from Nor'Ida. We present two BN models, referred to as 'original' model (BNo) and 'revised' model (BNr), designed to predict the most probable magnitude of net shoreline movement (NSM), as measured at 934 cross-shore transects, spanning 46 km. Both are informed with observational data (wave impact hours, shoreline and dune toe change rates, pre-storm beach width, and measured NSM) organized within five nodes, but the revised model contains a sixth node to represent the distribution of material added during an April 2009 nourishment project. We evaluate model success by examining the percentage of transects on which the model chooses the correct (observed) bin value of NSM. Comparisons of observed to model-predicted NSM show BNr has slightly higher predictive success over the total study area and significantly higher success at nourished locations. The BNo, which neglects anthropogenic modification history, correctly predicted the most probable NSM in 66.6% of transects, with ambiguous prediction at 12.7% of the locations. BNr, which incorporates anthropogenic modification history, resulted in 69.4% predictive accuracy and 13.9% ambiguity. However, across nourished transects, BNr reported 72.9% predictive success, while BNo reported 61.5% success. Further, at nourished transects, BNr reported higher ambiguity of 23.5% compared to 9.9% in BNo. These results demonstrate that BNr recognizes that nourished transects may behave differently from the expectation derived from historical data and therefore is more 'cautious' in its predictions at these locations. In contrast, BNo is more confident, but less accurate, demonstrating the risk of ignoring the influences of anthropogenic modification in a probabilistic model. Over the entire study region, both models produced greatest predictive accuracy for low retreat observations (BNo: 77.6%; BNr: 76.0%) and least success at predicting low advance observations, although BNr shows considerable improvement over BNo (39.4% vs. 28.6%, respectively). BNr also was significantly more accurate at predicting observations of no shoreline change (BNo: 56.2%; BNr: 68.93%). Both models were accurate for 60% of high advance observations, and reported high predictive success for high retreat observations (BNo: 69.1%; BNr: 67.6%), the scenario of greatest concern to coastal managers.

Population variation in isotopic composition of shorebird feathers: Implications for determining molting grounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torres-Dowdall, J.; Farmer, A.H.; Bucher, E.H.; Rye, R.O.; Landis, G.

2009-01-01

Stable isotope analyses have revolutionized the study of migratory connectivity. However, as with all tools, their limitations must be understood in order to derive the maximum benefit of a particular application. The goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of stable isotopes of C, N, H, O and S for assigning known-origin feathers to the molting sites of migrant shorebird species wintering and breeding in Argentina. Specific objectives were to: 1) compare the efficacy of the technique for studying shorebird species with different migration patterns, life histories and habitat-use patterns; 2) evaluate the grouping of species with similar migration and habitat use patterns in a single analysis to potentially improve prediction accuracy; and 3) evaluate the potential gains in prediction accuracy that might be achieved from using multiple stable isotopes. The efficacy of stable isotope ratios to determine origin was found to vary with species. While one species (White-rumped Sandpiper, Calidris fuscicollis) had high levels of accuracy assigning samples to known origin (91% of samples correctly assigned), another (Collared Plover, Charadrius collaris) showed low levels of accuracy (52% of samples correctly assigned). Intra-individual variability may account for this difference in efficacy. The prediction model for three species with similar migration and habitat-use patterns performed poorly compared with the model for just one of the species (71% versus 91% of samples correctly assigned). Thus, combining multiple sympatric species may not improve model prediction accuracy. Increasing the number of stable isotopes in the analyses increased the accuracy of assigning shorebirds to their molting origin, but the best combination - involving a subset of all the isotopes analyzed - varied among species.

Process-conditioned bias correction for seasonal forecasting: a case-study with ENSO in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2018-05-01

This work assesses the suitability of a first simple attempt for process-conditioned bias correction in the context of seasonal forecasting. To do this, we focus on the northwestern part of Peru and bias correct 1- and 4-month lead seasonal predictions of boreal winter (DJF) precipitation from the ECMWF System4 forecasting system for the period 1981-2010. In order to include information about the underlying large-scale circulation which may help to discriminate between precipitation affected by different processes, we introduce here an empirical quantile-quantile mapping method which runs conditioned on the state of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is accurately predicted by System4 and is known to affect the local climate. Beyond the reduction of model biases, our results show that the SOI-conditioned method yields better ROC skill scores and reliability than the raw model output over the entire region of study, whereas the standard unconditioned implementation provides no added value for any of these metrics. This suggests that conditioning the bias correction on simple but well-simulated large-scale processes relevant to the local climate may be a suitable approach for seasonal forecasting. Yet, further research on the suitability of the application of similar approaches to the one considered here for other regions, seasons and/or variables is needed.

Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

2017-11-01

The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

Probabilities of radiation-induced inter- and intrachromosomal exchanges and their dependence on the DNA content of the chromosome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, H.; Yang, T. C. (Principal Investigator)

2001-01-01

A biophysical model has been developed that is based on the assumptions that an interphase chromosome occupies a spherical territory and that chromosome exchanges are formed by the misrejoining of two DNA double-strand breaks induced within a defined interaction distance. The model is used to explain the relative frequencies of inter- and intrachromosomal exchanges and the relationship between radiation-induced aberrations in individual chromosomes and the DNA content of the chromosome. Although this simple model predicts a higher ratio of inter- to intrachromosomal exchanges for low-LET radiation than for high-LET radiation, as has been suggested by others, we argue that the comparison of the prediction of the model with experimental results is not straightforward. With the model, we also show that the probability of the formation of interchromosomal exchanges is proportional to the "surface area" of the chromosome domain plus a correction term. The correction term is small if the interaction distance is less than 1 microm for both low- and high-LET radiations.

Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci, Carlos Eduardo Morelli; Clarke, Robin Thomas; Collischonn, Walter; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio

2003-07-01

This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995-2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

Augmented wedge-shaped glenoid component for the correction of glenoid retroversion: a finite element analysis.

PubMed

Hermida, Juan C; Flores-Hernandez, Cesar; Hoenecke, Heinz R; D'Lima, Darryl D

2014-03-01

This study undertook a computational analysis of a wedged glenoid component for correction of retroverted glenoid arthritic deformity to determine whether a wedge-shaped glenoid component design with a built-in correction for version reduces excessive stresses in the implant, cement, and glenoid bone. Recommendations for correcting retroversion deformity are asymmetric reaming of the anterior glenoid, bone grafting of the posterior glenoid, or a glenoid component with posterior augmentation. Eccentric reaming has the disadvantages of removing normal bone, reducing structural support for the glenoid component, and increasing the risk of bone perforation by the fixation pegs. Bone grafting to correct retroverted deformity does not consistently generate successful results. Finite element models of 2 scapulae models representing a normal and an arthritic retroverted glenoid were implanted with a standard glenoid component (in retroversion or neutral alignment) or a wedged component. Glenohumeral forces representing in vivo loading were applied and stresses and strains computed in the bone, cement, and glenoid component. The retroverted glenoid components generated the highest compressive stresses and decreased cyclic fatigue life predictions for trabecular bone. Correction of retroversion by the wedged glenoid component significantly decreased stresses and predicted greater bone fatigue life. The cement volume estimated to survive 10 million cycles was the lowest for the retroverted components and the highest for neutrally implanted glenoid components and for wedged components. A wedged glenoid implant is a viable option to correct severe arthritic retroversion, reducing the need for eccentric reaming and the risk for implant failure. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

An Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Model with Temperature and Nozzle Aspect Ratio Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Cliff

2015-01-01

An empirical model for jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise produced by a round jet near a flat plate is described and the resulting model evaluated. The model covers unheated and hot jet conditions (1 less than or equal to jet total temperature ratio less than or equal to 2.7) in the subsonic range (0.5 less than or equal to M(sub a) less than or equal to 0.9), surface lengths 0.6 less than or equal to (axial distance from jet exit to surface trailing edge (inches)/nozzle exit diameter) less than or equal to 10, and surface standoff distances (0 less than or equal to (radial distance from jet lipline to surface (inches)/axial distance from jet exit to surface trailing edge (inches)) less than or equal to 1) using only second-order polynomials to provide predictable behavior. The JSI noise model is combined with an existing jet mixing noise model to produce exhaust noise predictions. Fit quality metrics and comparisons to between the predicted and experimental data indicate that the model is suitable for many system level studies. A first-order correction to the JSI source model that accounts for the effect of nozzle aspect ratio is also explored. This correction is based on changes to the potential core length and frequency scaling associated with rectangular nozzles up to 8:1 aspect ratio. However, more work is needed to refine these findings into a formal model.

Source and Message Factors in Persuasion: A Reply to Stiff's Critique of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petty, Richard E.; And Others

1987-01-01

Answers James Stiff's criticism of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion. Corrects certain misperceptions of the ELM and criticizes Stiff's meta-analysis that compares ELM predictions with those derived from Kahneman's elastic capacity model. Argues that Stiff's presentation of the ELM and the conclusions he draws based on the data…

Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe

2013-10-01

Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.

On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

PubMed Central

Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K.; Petersen, Alexander M.; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

2013-01-01

Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their “predictive power”. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

A 3D correction method for predicting the readings of a PinPoint chamber on the CyberKnife® M6™ machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongqian; Brandner, Edward; Ozhasoglu, Cihat; Lalonde, Ron; Heron, Dwight E.; Saiful Huq, M.

2018-02-01

The use of small fields in radiation therapy techniques has increased substantially in particular in stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). However, as field size reduces further still, the response of the detector changes more rapidly with field size, and the effects of measurement uncertainties become increasingly significant due to the lack of lateral charged particle equilibrium, spectral changes as a function of field size, detector choice, and subsequent perturbations of the charged particle fluence. This work presents a novel 3D dose volume-to-point correction method to predict the readings of a 0.015 cc PinPoint chamber (PTW 31014) for both small static-fields and composite-field dosimetry formed by fixed cones on the CyberKnife® M6™ machine. A 3D correction matrix is introduced to link the 3D dose distribution to the response of the PinPoint chamber in water. The parameters of the correction matrix are determined by modeling its 3D dose response in circular fields created using the 12 fixed cones (5 mm-60 mm) on a CyberKnife® M6™ machine. A penalized least-square optimization problem is defined by fitting the calculated detector reading to the experimental measurement data to generate the optimal correction matrix; the simulated annealing algorithm is used to solve the inverse optimization problem. All the experimental measurements are acquired for every 2 mm chamber shift in the horizontal planes for each field size. The 3D dose distributions for the measurements are calculated using the Monte Carlo calculation with the MultiPlan® treatment planning system (Accuray Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA). The performance evaluation of the 3D conversion matrix is carried out by comparing the predictions of the output factors (OFs), off-axis ratios (OARs) and percentage depth dose (PDD) data to the experimental measurement data. The discrepancy of the measurement and the prediction data for composite fields is also performed for clinical SRS plans. The optimization algorithm used for generating the optimal correction factors is stable, and the resulting correction factors were smooth in the spatial domain. The measurement and prediction of OFs agree closely with percentage differences of less than 1.9% for all the 12 cones. The discrepancies between the prediction and the measurement PDD readings at 50 mm and 80 mm depth are 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. The percentage differences of OARs between measurement and prediction data are less than 2% in the low dose gradient region, and 2%/1 mm discrepancies are observed within the high dose gradient regions. The differences between the measurement and prediction data for all the CyberKnife based SRS plans are less than 1%. These results demonstrate the existence and efficiency of the novel 3D correction method for small field dosimetry. The 3D correction matrix links the 3D dose distribution and the reading of the PinPoint chamber. The comparison between the predicted reading and the measurement data for static small fields (OFs, OARs and PDDs) yield discrepancies within 2% for low dose gradient regions and 2%/1 mm for high dose gradient regions; the discrepancies between the predicted and the measurement data are less than 1% for all the SRS plans. The 3D correction method provides an access to evaluate the clinical measurement data and can be applied to non-standard composite fields intensity modulated radiation therapy point dose verification.

Improved GIA Correction and Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Rise Observed by GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivins, Erik; James, Thomas; Wahr, John; Schrama, Ernst; Landerer, Felix; Simon, Karen

2013-04-01

Measurement of continent-wide glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is needed to interpret satellite-based trends for the grounded ice mass change of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). This is especially true for trends determined from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Three data sets have matured to the point where they can be used to shrink the range of possible GIA models for Antarctica: the glacial geological record has expanded to include exposure ages using 10Be,26Al measurements that constrain past thickness of the ice sheet, modelled ice core records now better constrain the temporal variation in past rates of snow accumulation, and Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical rate trends from across the continent are now available. The volume changes associated with Antarctic ice loading and unloading during the past 21 thousand years (21 ka) are smaller than previously thought, generating model present-day uplift rates that are consistent with GPS observations. We construct an ice sheet history that is designed to predict maximum volume changes, and in particular, maximum Holocene change. This ice sheet model drives a forward model prediction of GIA gravity signal, that in turn, should give maximum GIA response predictions. The apparent surface mass change component of GIA is re-evaluated to be +55 ± 13 Gt/yr by considering a revised ice history model and a parameter search for vertical motion predictions that best-fit the GPS observations at 18 high-quality stations. Although the GIA model spans a wide range of possible earth rheological structure values, the data are not yet sufficient for solving for a preferred value of upper and lower mantle viscosity, nor for a preferred lithospheric thickness. GRACE monthly solutions from CSR-RL04 release time series from Jan. 2003 through the beginning of Jan. 2012, uncorrected for GIA, yield an ice mass rate of +2.9 ± 34 Gt/yr. A new rough upper bound to the GIA correction is about 60-65 Gt/yr. The new correction increases the solved-for ice mass imbalance of Antarctica to -57 ± 34 Gt/yr. The revised GIA correction is smaller than past GRACE estimates by about 50 to 90 Gt/yr. The new upper bound to sea-level rise from AIS mass loss averaged over the time span 2003.0 - 2012.0 is about 0.16 ± 0.09 mm/yr. We discuss the differences in spatio-temporal character of the gain-loss regimes of Antarctica over the observing period.

Secular Orbit Evolution in Systems with a Strong External Perturber—A Simple and Accurate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrade-Ines, Eduardo; Eggl, Siegfried, E-mail: eandrade.ines@gmail.com, E-mail: siegfried.eggl@jpl.nasa.gov

We present a semi-analytical correction to the seminal solution for the secular motion of a planet’s orbit under gravitational influence of an external perturber derived by Heppenheimer. A comparison between analytical predictions and numerical simulations allows us to determine corrective factors for the secular frequency and forced eccentricity in the coplanar restricted three-body problem. The correction is given in the form of a polynomial function of the system’s parameters that can be applied to first-order forced eccentricity and secular frequency estimates. The resulting secular equations are simple, straight forward to use, and improve the fidelity of Heppenheimers solution well beyond higher-ordermore » models. The quality and convergence of the corrected secular equations are tested for a wide range of parameters and limits of its applicability are given.« less

Detecting Controller Malfunctions in Electromagnetic Environments. Part 1; Modeling and Estimation of Nominal System Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstein, Bernice

1999-01-01

A strategy for detecting control law calculation errors in critical flight control computers during laboratory validation testing is presented. This paper addresses Part I of the detection strategy which involves the use of modeling of the aircraft control laws and the design of Kalman filters to predict the correct control commands. Part II of the strategy which involves the use of the predicted control commands to detect control command errors is presented in the companion paper.

A new symmetry model for hohlraum-driven capsule implosion experiments on the NIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, O.; Rygg, R.; Tomasini, R.; Eder, D.; Kritcher, A.; Milovich, J.; Peterson, L.; Thomas, C.; Barrios, M.; Benedetti, R.; Doeppner, T.; Ma, T.; Nagel, S.; Pak, A.; Field, J.; Izumi, N.; Glenn, S.; Town, R.; Bradley, D.

2016-03-01

We have developed a new model for predicting the time-dependent radiation drive asymmetry in laser-heated hohlraums. The model consists of integrated Hydra capsule-hohlraum calculations coupled to a separate model for calculating the crossbeam energy transfer between the inner and outer cones of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) indirect drive configuration. The time- dependent crossbeam transfer model parameters were adjusted in order to best match the P2 component of the shape of the inflight shell inferred from backlit radiographs of the capsule taken when the shell was at a radius of 150-250 μm. The adjusted model correctly predicts the observed inflight P2 and P4 components of the shape of the inflight shell, and also the P2 component of the shape of the hotspot inferred from x-ray self-emission images at the time of peak emission. It also correctly captures the scaling of the inflight P4 as the hohlraum length is varied. We then applied the newly benchmarked model to quantify the improved symmetry of the N130331 layered deuterium- tritium (DT) experiment in a re-optimized longer hohlraum.

NCEP/NLDAS Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Ek, M.; Wood, E.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Livneh, B.; Cosgrove, B.; Mocko, D.; Meng, J.; Wei, H.; Restrepo, P.; Schaake, J.; Mo, K.

2009-05-01

The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas) to monitor and predict the drought over the Continental United States (CONUS). The realtime NLDAS drought monitor, executed daily at NCEP/EMC, including daily, weekly and monthly anomaly and percentile of six fields (soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation, precipitation) outputted from four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, SAC, and VIC) on a common 1/8th degree grid using common hourly land surface forcing. The non-precipitation surface forcing is derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR). The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies a Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using radar and satellite precipitation. The NARR- based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite- derived solar radiation retrievals. The uncoupled ensemble seasonal drought prediction utilizes the following three independent approaches for generating downscaled ensemble seasonal forecasts of surface forcing: (1) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, (2) CPC Official Seasonal Climate Outlook, and (3) NCEP CFS ensemble dynamical model prediction. For each of these three approaches, twenty ensemble members of forcing realizations are generated using a Bayesian merging algorithm developed by Princeton University. The three forcing methods are then used to drive the VIC model in seasonal prediction mode over thirteen large river basins that together span the CONUS domain. One to nine month ensemble seasonal prediction products such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, snowpack, total runoff, evaporation and streamflow are derived for each forcing approach. The anomalies and percentiles of the predicted products for each approach may be used for CONUS drought prediction. This system is executed at the beginning of each month and distributes its products by the 10th of each month. The prediction products are evaluated using corresponding monitoring products for the VIC model and are compared with the prediction products from other research groups (e.g., University of Washington at Seattle, NASA Goddard) in the CONUS.

Prediction of Deformity Correction by Pedicle Screw Instrumentation in Thoracolumbar Scoliosis Surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiriyama, Yoshimori; Yamazaki, Nobutoshi; Nagura, Takeo; Matsumoto, Morio; Chiba, Kazuhiro; Toyama, Yoshiaki

In segmental pedicle screw instrumentation, the relationship between the combinations of pedicle screw placements and the degree of deformity correction was investigated with a three-dimensional rigid body and spring model. The virtual thoracolumbar scoliosis (Cobb’s angle of 47 deg.) was corrected using six different combinations of pedicle-screw placements. As a result, better correction in the axial rotation was obtained with the pedicle screws placed at or close to the apical vertebra than with the screws placed close to the end vertebrae, while the correction in the frontal plane was better with the screws close to the end vertebrae than with those close to the apical vertebra. Additionally, two screws placed in the convex side above and below the apical vertebra provided better correction than two screws placed in the concave side. Effective deformity corrections of scoliosis were obtained with the proper combinations of pedicle screw placements.

Biochemical interpretation of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) for biodegradation of N-heterocycles: a complementary approach to predict biodegradability.

PubMed

Philipp, Bodo; Hoff, Malte; Germa, Florence; Schink, Bernhard; Beimborn, Dieter; Mersch-Sundermann, Volker

2007-02-15

Prediction of the biodegradability of organic compounds is an ecologically desirable and economically feasible tool for estimating the environmental fate of chemicals. We combined quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) with the systematic collection of biochemical knowledge to establish rules for the prediction of aerobic biodegradation of N-heterocycles. Validated biodegradation data of 194 N-heterocyclic compounds were analyzed using the MULTICASE-method which delivered two QSAR models based on 17 activating (OSAR 1) and on 16 inactivating molecular fragments (GSAR 2), which were statistically significantly linked to efficient or poor biodegradability, respectively. The percentages of correct classifications were over 99% for both models, and cross-validation resulted in 67.9% (GSAR 1) and 70.4% (OSAR 2) correct predictions. Biochemical interpretation of the activating and inactivating characteristics of the molecular fragments delivered plausible mechanistic interpretations and enabled us to establish the following biodegradation rules: (1) Target sites for amidohydrolases and for cytochrome P450 monooxygenases enhance biodegradation of nonaromatic N-heterocycles. (2) Target sites for molybdenum hydroxylases enhance biodegradation of aromatic N-heterocycles. (3) Target sites for hydratation by an urocanase-like mechanism enhance biodegradation of imidazoles. Our complementary approach represents a feasible strategy for generating concrete rules for the prediction of biodegradability of organic compounds.

Project Evaluation: Validation of a Scale and Analysis of Its Predictive Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernandes Malaquias, Rodrigo; de Oliveira Malaquias, Fernanda Francielle

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to validate a scale for assessment of academic projects. As a complement, we examined its predictive ability by comparing the scores of advised/corrected projects based on the model and the final scores awarded to the work by an examining panel (approximately 10 months after the project design). Results of…

Using Multiple Indicators of Cognitive State in Logistic Models that Predict Individual Performance in Machine-Mediated Learning Environments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hancock, Thomas E.; And Others

1995-01-01

In machine-mediated learning environments, there is a need for more reliable methods of calculating the probability that a learner's response will be correct in future trials. A combination of domain-independent response-state measures of cognition along with two instructional variables for maximum predictive ability are demonstrated. (Author/LRW)

A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship for acute oral toxicity of pesticides on rats: Validation, domain of application and prediction.

PubMed

Hamadache, Mabrouk; Benkortbi, Othmane; Hanini, Salah; Amrane, Abdeltif; Khaouane, Latifa; Si Moussa, Cherif

2016-02-13

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models are expected to play an important role in the risk assessment of chemicals on humans and the environment. In this study, we developed a validated QSAR model to predict acute oral toxicity of 329 pesticides to rats because a few QSAR models have been devoted to predict the Lethal Dose 50 (LD50) of pesticides on rats. This QSAR model is based on 17 molecular descriptors, and is robust, externally predictive and characterized by a good applicability domain. The best results were obtained with a 17/9/1 Artificial Neural Network model trained with the Quasi Newton back propagation (BFGS) algorithm. The prediction accuracy for the external validation set was estimated by the Q(2)ext and the root mean square error (RMS) which are equal to 0.948 and 0.201, respectively. 98.6% of external validation set is correctly predicted and the present model proved to be superior to models previously published. Accordingly, the model developed in this study provides excellent predictions and can be used to predict the acute oral toxicity of pesticides, particularly for those that have not been tested as well as new pesticides. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

PubMed

Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

2014-05-22

New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

Impact of Initial Condition Errors and Precipitation Forecast Bias on Drought Simulation and Prediction in the Huaihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, H.; Luo, L.; Wu, Z.

2016-12-01

Drought, regarded as one of the major disasters all over the world, is not always easy to detect and forecast. Hydrological models coupled with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has become a relatively effective method for drought monitoring and prediction. The accuracy of hydrological initial condition (IC) and the skill of NWP precipitation forecast can both heavily affect the quality and skill of hydrological forecast. In the study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) model were used to investigate the roles of IC and NWP forecast accuracy on hydrological predictions. A rev-ESP type experiment was conducted for a number of drought events in the Huaihe river basin. The experiment suggests that errors in ICs indeed affect the drought simulations by VIC and thus the drought monitoring. Although errors introduced in the ICs diminish gradually, the influence sometimes can last beyond 12 months. Using the soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI) as the metric to measure drought severity for the study region, we are able to quantify that time scale of influence from IC ranges. The analysis shows that the time scale is directly related to the magnitude of the introduced IC range and the average precipitation intensity. In order to explore how systematic bias correction in GEM forecasted precipitation can affect precipitation and hydrological forecast, we then both used station and gridded observations to eliminate biases of forecasted data. Meanwhile, different precipitation inputs with corrected data during drought process were conducted by VIC to investigate the changes of drought simulations, thus demonstrated short-term rolling drought prediction using a better performed corrected precipitation forecast. There is a word limit on the length of the abstract. So make sure your abstract fits the requirement. If this version is too long, try to shorten it as much as you can.

Space vehicle acoustics prediction improvement for payloads. [space shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dandridge, R. E.

1979-01-01

The modal analysis method was extensively modified for the prediction of space vehicle noise reduction in the shuttle payload enclosure, and this program was adapted to the IBM 360 computer. The predicted noise reduction levels for two test cases were compared with experimental results to determine the validity of the analytical model for predicting space vehicle payload noise environments in the 10 Hz one-third octave band regime. The prediction approach for the two test cases generally gave reasonable magnitudes and trends when compared with the measured noise reduction spectra. The discrepancies in the predictions could be corrected primarily by improved modeling of the vehicle structural walls and of the enclosed acoustic space to obtain a more accurate assessment of normal modes. Techniques for improving and expandng the noise prediction for a payload environment are also suggested.

Microscale Heat Conduction Models and Doppler Feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hawari, Ayman I.; Ougouag, Abderrafi

2015-01-22

The objective of this project is to establish an approach for providing the fundamental input that is needed to estimate the magnitude and time-dependence of the Doppler feedback mechanism in Very High Temperature reactors. This mechanism is the foremost contributor to the passive safety of gas-cooled, graphite-moderated high temperature reactors that use fuel based on Tristructural-Isotropic (TRISO) coated particles. Therefore, its correct prediction is essential to the conduct of safety analyses for these reactors. Since the effect is directly dependent on the actual temperature reached by the fuel during transients, the underlying phenomena of heat deposition, heat transfer and temperaturemore » rise must be correctly predicted. To achieve the above objective, this project will explore an approach that accounts for lattice effects as well as local temperature variations and the correct definition of temperature and related local effects.« less

Homogeneous nucleation and droplet growth in nitrogen. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, E. H.

1983-01-01

A one dimensional computer model of the homogeneous nucleation process and growth of condensate for nitrogen flows over airfoils is developed to predict the onset of condensation and thus to be able to take advantage of as much of Reynolds capability of cryogenic tunnels as possible. Homogeneous nucleation data were taken using a DFVLR CAST-10 airfoil in the 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel and are used to evaluate the classical liquid droplet theory and several proposed corrections to it. For predicting liquid nitrogen condensation effects, use of the arbitrary Tolman constant of 0.25 x 250 billionth m or the Reiss or Kikuchi correction agrees with the CAST-10 data. Because no solid nitrogen condensation were found experimentally during the CAST-10 experiments, earlier nozzle data are used to evaluate corrections to the classical liquid droplet theory in the lower temperature regime. A theoretical expression for the surface tension of solid nitrogen is developed.

Quantifying errors in surface ozone predictions associated with clouds over the CONUS: a WRF-Chem modeling study using satellite cloud retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Young-Hee; Hodzic, Alma; Barre, Jerome; Descombes, Gael; Minnis, Patrick

2018-05-01

Clouds play a key role in radiation and hence O3 photochemistry by modulating photolysis rates and light-dependent emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). It is not well known, however, how much error in O3 predictions can be directly attributed to error in cloud predictions. This study applies the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model at 12 km horizontal resolution with the Morrison microphysics and Grell 3-D cumulus parameterization to quantify uncertainties in summertime surface O3 predictions associated with cloudiness over the contiguous United States (CONUS). All model simulations are driven by reanalysis of atmospheric data and reinitialized every 2 days. In sensitivity simulations, cloud fields used for photochemistry are corrected based on satellite cloud retrievals. The results show that WRF-Chem predicts about 55 % of clouds in the right locations and generally underpredicts cloud optical depths. These errors in cloud predictions can lead to up to 60 ppb of overestimation in hourly surface O3 concentrations on some days. The average difference in summertime surface O3 concentrations derived from the modeled clouds and satellite clouds ranges from 1 to 5 ppb for maximum daily 8 h average O3 (MDA8 O3) over the CONUS. This represents up to ˜ 40 % of the total MDA8 O3 bias under cloudy conditions in the tested model version. Surface O3 concentrations are sensitive to cloud errors mainly through the calculation of photolysis rates (for ˜ 80 %), and to a lesser extent to light-dependent BVOC emissions. The sensitivity of surface O3 concentrations to satellite-based cloud corrections is about 2 times larger in VOC-limited than NOx-limited regimes. Our results suggest that the benefits of accurate predictions of cloudiness would be significant in VOC-limited regions, which are typical of urban areas.

Global ocean tides through assimilation of oceanographic and altimeter satellite data in a hydrodynamic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leprovost, Christian; Mazzega, P.; Vincent, P.

1991-01-01

Ocean tides must be considered in many scientific disciplines: astronomy, oceanography, geodesy, geophysics, meteorology, and space technologies. Progress in each of these disciplines leads to the need for greater knowledge and more precise predictions of the ocean tide contribution. This is particularly true of satellite altimetry. On one side, the present and future satellite altimetry missions provide and will supply new data that will contribute to the improvement of the present ocean tide solutions. On the other side, tidal corrections included in the Geophysical Data Records must be determined with the maximum possible accuracy. The valuable results obtained with satellite altimeter data thus far have not been penalized by the insufficiencies of the present ocean tide predictions included in the geophysical data records (GDR's) because the oceanic processes investigated have shorter wavelengths than the error field of the tidal predictions, so that the residual errors of the tidal corrections are absorbed in the empirical tilt and bias corrections of the satellite orbit. For future applications to large-scale oceanic phenomena, however, it will no longer be possible to ignore these insufficiencies.

Modeling to predict pilot performance during CDTI-based in-trail following experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorensen, J. A.; Goka, T.

1984-01-01

A mathematical model was developed of the flight system with the pilot using a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. Both in-trail and vertical dynamics were included. The nominal spacing was based on one of three criteria (Constant Time Predictor; Constant Time Delay; or Acceleration Cue). This model was used to simulate digitally the dynamics of a string of multiple following aircraft, including response to initial position errors. The simulation was used to predict the outcome of a series of in-trail following experiments, including pilot performance in maintaining correct longitudinal spacing and vertical position. The experiments were run in the NASA Ames Research Center multi-cab cockpit simulator facility. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Model parameters were adjusted, so that modeled performance matched experimental results. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are summarized.

A Multicriteria Approach to Find Predictive and Sparse Models with Stable Feature Selection for High-Dimensional Data.

PubMed

Bommert, Andrea; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Lang, Michel

2017-01-01

Finding a good predictive model for a high-dimensional data set can be challenging. For genetic data, it is not only important to find a model with high predictive accuracy, but it is also important that this model uses only few features and that the selection of these features is stable. This is because, in bioinformatics, the models are used not only for prediction but also for drawing biological conclusions which makes the interpretability and reliability of the model crucial. We suggest using three target criteria when fitting a predictive model to a high-dimensional data set: the classification accuracy, the stability of the feature selection, and the number of chosen features. As it is unclear which measure is best for evaluating the stability, we first compare a variety of stability measures. We conclude that the Pearson correlation has the best theoretical and empirical properties. Also, we find that for the stability assessment behaviour it is most important that a measure contains a correction for chance or large numbers of chosen features. Then, we analyse Pareto fronts and conclude that it is possible to find models with a stable selection of few features without losing much predictive accuracy.

The predictive power of SIMION/SDS simulation software for modeling ion mobility spectrometry instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Hanh; McJunkin, Timothy R.; Miller, Carla J.; Scott, Jill R.; Almirall, José R.

2008-09-01

The combined use of SIMION 7.0 and the statistical diffusion simulation (SDS) user program in conjunction with SolidWorks® with COSMSOSFloWorks® fluid dynamics software to model a complete, commercial ion mobility spectrometer (IMS) was demonstrated for the first time and compared to experimental results for tests using compounds of immediate interest in the security industry (e.g., 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, 2,7-dinitrofluorene, and cocaine). The effort of this research was to evaluate the predictive power of SIMION/SDS for application to IMS instruments. The simulation was evaluated against experimental results in three studies: (1) a drift:carrier gas flow rates study assesses the ability of SIMION/SDS to correctly predict the ion drift times; (2) a drift gas composition study evaluates the accuracy in predicting the resolution; (3) a gate width study compares the simulated peak shape and peak intensity with the experimental values. SIMION/SDS successfully predicted the correct drift time, intensity, and resolution trends for the operating parameters studied. Despite the need for estimations and assumptions in the construction of the simulated instrument, SIMION/SDS was able to predict the resolution between two ion species in air within 3% accuracy. The preliminary success of IMS simulations using SIMION/SDS software holds great promise for the design of future instruments with enhanced performance.

Improve the prediction of RNA-binding residues using structural neighbours.

PubMed

Li, Quan; Cao, Zanxia; Liu, Haiyan

2010-03-01

The interactions between RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) with RNA play key roles in managing some of the cell's basic functions. The identification and prediction of RNA binding sites is important for understanding the RNA-binding mechanism. Computational approaches are being developed to predict RNA-binding residues based on the sequence- or structure-derived features. To achieve higher prediction accuracy, improvements on current prediction methods are necessary. We identified that the structural neighbors of RNA-binding and non-RNA-binding residues have different amino acid compositions. Combining this structure-derived feature with evolutionary (PSSM) and other structural information (secondary structure and solvent accessibility) significantly improves the predictions over existing methods. Using a multiple linear regression approach and 6-fold cross validation, our best model can achieve an overall correct rate of 87.8% and MCC of 0.47, with a specificity of 93.4%, correctly predict 52.4% of the RNA-binding residues for a dataset containing 107 non-homologous RNA-binding proteins. Compared with existing methods, including the amino acid compositions of structure neighbors lead to clearly improvement. A web server was developed for predicting RNA binding residues in a protein sequence (or structure),which is available at http://mcgill.3322.org/RNA/.

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Introduction External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. PMID:26881753

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

PubMed

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-01-01

External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

Challenges of Electronic Medical Surveillance Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

More sophisticated approaches, such as regression models and classical autoregressive moving average ( ARIMA ) models that make estimates based on...with those predicted by a mathematical model . The primary benefit of ARIMA models is their ability to correct for local trends in the data so that...works well, for example, during a particularly severe flu season, where prolonged periods of high visit rates are adjusted to by the ARIMA model , thus

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Fernandez, J. R.; Bilitza, D.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2009-01-01

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

SU-F-J-219: Predicting Ventilation Change Due to Radiation Therapy: Dependency On Pre-RT Ventilation and Effort Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patton, T; Du, K; Bayouth, J

Purpose: Ventilation change caused by radiation therapy (RT) can be predicted using four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) and image registration. This study tested the dependency of predicted post-RT ventilation on effort correction and pre-RT lung function. Methods: Pre-RT and 3 month post-RT 4DCT images were obtained for 13 patients. The 4DCT images were used to create ventilation maps using a deformable image registration based Jacobian expansion calculation. The post-RT ventilation maps were predicted in four different ways using the dose delivered, pre-RT ventilation, and effort correction. The pre-RT ventilation and effort correction were toggled to determine dependency. The four different predictedmore » ventilation maps were compared to the post-RT ventilation map calculated from image registration to establish the best prediction method. Gamma pass rates were used to compare the different maps with the criteria of 2mm distance-to-agreement and 6% ventilation difference. Paired t-tests of gamma pass rates were used to determine significant differences between the maps. Additional gamma pass rates were calculated using only voxels receiving over 20 Gy. Results: The predicted post-RT ventilation maps were in agreement with the actual post-RT maps in the following percentage of voxels averaged over all subjects: 71% with pre-RT ventilation and effort correction, 69% with no pre-RT ventilation and effort correction, 60% with pre-RT ventilation and no effort correction, and 58% with no pre-RT ventilation and no effort correction. When analyzing only voxels receiving over 20 Gy, the gamma pass rates were respectively 74%, 69%, 65%, and 55%. The prediction including both pre- RT ventilation and effort correction was the only prediction with significant improvement over using no prediction (p<0.02). Conclusion: Post-RT ventilation is best predicted using both pre-RT ventilation and effort correction. This is the only prediction that provided a significant improvement on agreement. Research support from NIH grants CA166119 and CA166703, a gift from Roger Koch, and a Pilot Grant from University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine.« less

Dynamical generation of a repulsive vector contribution to the quark pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo, Tulio E.; Macias, Juan Camilo; Pinto, Marcus Benghi; Ferrari, Gabriel N.

2015-03-01

Lattice QCD results for the coefficient c2 appearing in the Taylor expansion of the pressure show that this quantity increases with the temperature towards the Stefan-Boltzmann limit. On the other hand, model approximations predict that when a vector repulsion, parametrized by GV, is present this coefficient reaches a maximum just after Tc and then deviates from the lattice predictions. Recently, this discrepancy has been used as a guide to constrain the (presently unknown) value of GV within the framework of effective models at large Nc (LN). In the present investigation we show that, due to finite Nc effects, c2 may also develop a maximum even when GV=0 since a vector repulsive term can be dynamically generated by exchange-type radiative corrections. Here we apply the optimized perturbation theory (OPT) method to the two-flavor Polyakov-Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model (at GV=0 ) and compare the results with those furnished by lattice simulations and by the LN approximation at GV=0 and also at GV≠0 . The OPT numerical results for c2 are impressively accurate for T ≲1.2 Tc but, as expected, they predict that this quantity develops a maximum at high T . After identifying the mathematical origin of this extremum we argue that such a discrepant behavior may naturally arise within this type of effective quark theories (at GV=0 ) whenever the first 1 /Nc corrections are taken into account. We then interpret this hypothesis as an indication that beyond the large-Nc limit the correct high-temperature (perturbative) behavior of c2 will be faithfully described by effective models only if they also mimic the asymptotic freedom phenomenon.

Antarctic contribution to sea level rise observed by GRACE with improved GIA correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivins, Erik R.; James, Thomas S.; Wahr, John; Schrama, Ernst J. O.; Landerer, Felix W.; Simon, Karen M.

2013-06-01

Antarctic volume changes during the past 21 thousand years are smaller than previously thought, and here we construct an ice sheet history that drives a forward model prediction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) gravity signal. The new model, in turn, should give predictions that are constrained with recent uplift data. The impact of the GIA signal on a Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Antarctic mass balance estimate depends on the specific GRACE analysis method used. For the method described in this paper, the GIA contribution to the apparent surface mass change is re-evaluated to be +55±13 Gt/yr by considering a revised ice history model and a parameter search for vertical motion predictions that best fit the GPS observations at 18 high-quality stations. Although the GIA model spans a range of possible Earth rheological structure values, the data are not yet sufficient for solving for a preferred value of upper and lower mantle viscosity nor for a preferred lithospheric thickness. GRACE monthly solutions from the Center for Space Research Release 04 (CSR-RL04) release time series from January 2003 to the beginning of January 2012, uncorrected for GIA, yield an ice mass rate of +2.9± 29 Gt/yr. The new GIA correction increases the solved-for ice mass imbalance of Antarctica to -57±34 Gt/yr. The revised GIA correction is smaller than past GRACE estimates by about 50 to 90 Gt/yr. The new upper bound to the sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet, averaged over the time span 2003.0-2012.0, is about 0.16±0.09 mm/yr.

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Rath, John; Mills, William; Roy, Sujoy; Thrasher, Bridget; Wang, Weile; Chiang, Felicia; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James

2014-01-01

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

Predictive Modeling of Marine Mammal Density from Existing Survey Data and Model Validation Using Upcoming Surveys

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

estimate to a geometric mean in the process (Finney 1941, Smith 1993). The ratio estimator was used to correct for this back-transformation bias...2007) Killer whales preying on a blue whale calf on the Costa Rica Dome: genetics, morphometrics , vocalizations and composition of the group. Journal

Simulating boundary layer transition with low-Reynolds-number k-epsilon turbulence models. I - An evaluation of prediction characteristics. II - An approach to improving the predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. C.; Patankar, S. V.

1991-01-01

The capability of two k-epsilon low-Reynolds number (LRN) turbulence models, those of Jones and Launder (1972) and Lam and Bremhorst (1981), to predict transition in external boundary-layer flows subject to free-stream turbulence is analyzed. Both models correctly predict the basic qualitative aspects of boundary-layer transition with free stream turbulence, but for calculations started at low values of certain defined Reynolds numbers, the transition is generally predicted at unrealistically early locations. Also, the methods predict transition lengths significantly shorter than those found experimentally. An approach to overcoming these deficiencies without abandoning the basic LRN k-epsilon framework is developed. This approach limits the production term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation and is based on a simple stability criterion. It is correlated to the free-stream turbulence value. The modification is shown to improve the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the transition predictions.

CSAMT Data Processing with Source Effect and Static Corrections, Application of Occam's Inversion, and Its Application in Geothermal System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, H.; Qausar, A. M.; Srigutomo, W.

2016-08-01

Controlled source audio-frequency magnetotellurics (CSAMT) is a frequency-domain electromagnetic sounding technique which uses a fixed grounded dipole as an artificial signal source. Measurement of CSAMT with finite distance between transmitter and receiver caused a complex wave. The shifted of the electric field due to the static effect caused elevated resistivity curve up or down and affects the result of measurement. The objective of this study was to obtain data that have been corrected for source and static effects as to have the same characteristic as MT data which are assumed to exhibit plane wave properties. Corrected CSAMT data were inverted to reveal subsurface resistivity model. Source effect correction method was applied to eliminate the effect of the signal source and static effect was corrected by using spatial filtering technique. Inversion method that used in this study is the Occam's 2D Inversion. The results of inversion produces smooth models with a small misfit value, it means the model can describe subsurface conditions well. Based on the result of inversion was predicted measurement area is rock that has high permeability values with rich hot fluid.

Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

PubMed

Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

2017-12-01

Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

Predicting 30-Day Hospital Readmissions in Acute Myocardial Infarction: The AMI "READMITS" (Renal Function, Elevated Brain Natriuretic Peptide, Age, Diabetes Mellitus, Nonmale Sex, Intervention with Timely Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, and Low Systolic Blood Pressure) Score.

PubMed

Nguyen, Oanh Kieu; Makam, Anil N; Clark, Christopher; Zhang, Song; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A

2018-04-17

Readmissions after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are common. However, the few currently available AMI readmission risk prediction models have poor-to-modest predictive ability and are not readily actionable in real time. We sought to develop an actionable and accurate AMI readmission risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients as early as possible during hospitalization. We used electronic health record data from consecutive AMI hospitalizations from 6 hospitals in north Texas from 2009 to 2010 to derive and validate models predicting all-cause nonelective 30-day readmissions, using stepwise backward selection and 5-fold cross-validation. Of 826 patients hospitalized with AMI, 13% had a 30-day readmission. The first-day AMI model (the AMI "READMITS" score) included 7 predictors: renal function, elevated brain natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes mellitus, nonmale sex, intervention with timely percutaneous coronary intervention, and low systolic blood pressure, had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.74) and was well calibrated. The full-stay AMI model, which included 3 additional predictors (use of intravenous diuretics, anemia on discharge, and discharge to postacute care), had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.76) with minimally improved net reclassification and calibration. Both AMI models outperformed corresponding multicondition readmission models. The parsimonious AMI READMITS score enables early prospective identification of high-risk AMI patients for targeted readmissions reduction interventions within the first 24 hours of hospitalization. A full-stay AMI readmission model only modestly outperformed the AMI READMITS score in terms of discrimination, but surprisingly did not meaningfully improve reclassification. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

PubMed

Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

2017-01-01

The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

2017-01-01

The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

Models of the strongly lensed quasar DES J0408-5354

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnello, A.; Lin, H.; Buckley-Geer, L.; Treu, T.; Bonvin, V.; Courbin, F.; Lemon, C.; Morishita, T.; Amara, A.; Auger, M. W.; Birrer, S.; Chan, J.; Collett, T.; More, A.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Frieman, J.; Marshall, P. J.; McMahon, R. G.; Meylan, G.; Suyu, S. H.; Castander, F.; Finley, D.; Howell, A.; Kochanek, C.; Makler, M.; Martini, P.; Morgan, N.; Nord, B.; Ostrovski, F.; Schechter, P.; Tucker, D.; Wechsler, R.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Burke, D. L.; Rosell, A. Carnero; Kind, M. Carrasco; Carretero, J.; Crocce, M.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; da Costa, L. N.; Desai, S.; Dietrich, J. P.; Eifler, T. F.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gill, M. S.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gutierrez, G.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Li, T. S.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; March, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Schindler, R.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, M.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, D.; Walker, A. R.

2017-12-01

We present detailed modelling of the recently discovered, quadruply lensed quasar J0408-5354, with the aim of interpreting its remarkable configuration: besides three quasar images (A,B,D) around the main deflector (G1), a fourth image (C) is significantly reddened and dimmed by a perturber (G2) which is not detected in the Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From lens models incorporating (dust-corrected) flux ratios, we find a perturber Einstein radius 0.04 arcsec ≲ RE, G2 ≲ 0.2 arcsec and enclosed mass Mp(RE, G2) ≲ 1.0 × 1010 M⊙. The main deflector has stellar mass log _{10}(M_{\\star }/M_{⊙})=11.49^{+0.46}_{-0.32}, a projected mass Mp(RE, G1) ≈ 6 × 1011 M⊙ within its Einstein radius RE, G1 = (1.85 ± 0.15) arcsec and predicted velocity dispersion 267-280 km s-1. Follow-up images from a companion monitoring campaign show additional components, including a candidate second source at a redshift between the quasar and G1. Models with free perturbers, and dust-corrected and delay-corrected flux ratios, are also explored. The predicted time-delays (ΔtAB = (135.0 ± 12.6) d, ΔtBD = (21.0 ± 3.5) d) roughly agree with those measured, but better imaging is required for proper modelling and comparison. We also discuss some lessons learnt from J0408-5354 on lensed quasar finding strategies, due to its chromaticity and morphology.

Scalar production and decay to top quarks including interference effects at NLO in QCD in an EFT approach

DOE PAGES

Franzosi, Diogo Buarque; Vryonidou, Eleni; Zhang, Cen

2017-10-13

Scalar and pseudo-scalar resonances decaying to top quarks are common predictions in several scenarios beyond the standard model (SM) and are extensively searched for by LHC experiments. Challenges on the experimental side require optimising the strategy based on accurate predictions. Firstly, QCD corrections are known to be large both for the SM QCD background and for the pure signal scalar production. Secondly, leading order and approximate next-to-leading order (NLO) calculations indicate that the interference between signal and background is large and drastically changes the lineshape of the signal, from a simple peak to a peak-dip structure. Therefore, a robust predictionmore » of this interference at NLO accuracy in QCD is necessary to ensure that higher-order corrections do not alter the lineshapes. We compute the exact NLO corrections, assuming a point-like coupling between the scalar and the gluons and consistently embedding the calculation in an effective field theory within an automated framework, and present results for a representative set of beyond the SM benchmarks. The results can be further matched to parton shower simulation, providing more realistic predictions. We find that NLO corrections are important and lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties. We also discuss how our computation can be used to improve the predictions for physics scenarios where the gluon-scalar loop is resolved and the effective approach is less applicable.« less

Scalar production and decay to top quarks including interference effects at NLO in QCD in an EFT approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franzosi, Diogo Buarque; Vryonidou, Eleni; Zhang, Cen

Scalar and pseudo-scalar resonances decaying to top quarks are common predictions in several scenarios beyond the standard model (SM) and are extensively searched for by LHC experiments. Challenges on the experimental side require optimising the strategy based on accurate predictions. Firstly, QCD corrections are known to be large both for the SM QCD background and for the pure signal scalar production. Secondly, leading order and approximate next-to-leading order (NLO) calculations indicate that the interference between signal and background is large and drastically changes the lineshape of the signal, from a simple peak to a peak-dip structure. Therefore, a robust predictionmore » of this interference at NLO accuracy in QCD is necessary to ensure that higher-order corrections do not alter the lineshapes. We compute the exact NLO corrections, assuming a point-like coupling between the scalar and the gluons and consistently embedding the calculation in an effective field theory within an automated framework, and present results for a representative set of beyond the SM benchmarks. The results can be further matched to parton shower simulation, providing more realistic predictions. We find that NLO corrections are important and lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties. We also discuss how our computation can be used to improve the predictions for physics scenarios where the gluon-scalar loop is resolved and the effective approach is less applicable.« less

Simulation of Atmospheric-Entry Capsules in the Subsonic Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, Scott M.; Childs, Robert E.; Garcia, Joseph A.

2015-01-01

The accuracy of Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions of subsonic capsule aerodynamics is examined by comparison against recent NASA wind-tunnel data at high-Reynolds-number flight conditions. Several aspects of numerical and physical modeling are considered, including inviscid numerical scheme, mesh adaptation, rough-wall modeling, rotation and curvature corrections for eddy-viscosity models, and Detached-Eddy Simulations of the unsteady wake. All of these are considered in isolation against relevant data where possible. The results indicate that an improved predictive capability is developed by considering physics-based approaches and validating the results against flight-relevant experimental data.

Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samui, P.; Sitharam, T. G.

2011-01-01

This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT) data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP) that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM) that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT [(N1)60] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR). Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters [(N1)60 and peck ground acceleration (amax/g)], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.

Comparing Nonsynergy Gamma Models and Interaction Models To Predict Growth of Emetic Bacillus cereus for Combinations of pH and Water Activity Values ▿

PubMed Central

Biesta-Peters, Elisabeth G.; Reij, Martine W.; Zwietering, Marcel H.; Gorris, Leon G. M.

2011-01-01

This research aims to test the absence (gamma hypothesis) or occurrence of synergy between two growth-limiting factors, i.e., pH and water activity (aw), using a systematic approach for model selection. In this approach, preset criteria were used to evaluate the performance of models. Such a systematic approach is required to be confident in the correctness of the individual components of the combined (synergy) models. With Bacillus cereus F4810/72 as the test organism, estimated growth boundaries for the aw-lowering solutes NaCl, KCl, and glucose were 1.13 M, 1.13 M, and 1.68 M, respectively. The accompanying aw values were 0.954, 0.956, and 0.961, respectively, indicating that equal aw values result in similar effects on growth. Out of the 12 models evaluated using the preset criteria, the model of J. H. T. Luong (Biotechnol. Bioeng. 27:280–285, 1985) was the best model to describe the effect of aw on growth. This aw model and the previously selected pH model were combined into a gamma model and into two synergy models. None of the three models was able to describe the combined pH and aw conditions sufficiently well to satisfy the preset criteria. The best matches between predicted and experimental data were obtained with the gamma model, followed by the synergy model of Y. Le Marc et al. (Int. J. Food Microbiol. 73:219–237, 2002). No combination of models that was able to predict the impact of both individual and combined hurdles correctly could be found. Consequently, in this case we could not prove the existence of synergy nor falsify the gamma hypothesis. PMID:21705525

Predicting biological condition in southern California streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Larry R.; May, Jason T.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Ode, Peter R.; Waite, Ian R.; Kennen, Jonathan G.

2012-01-01

As understanding of the complex relations among environmental stressors and biological responses improves, a logical next step is predictive modeling of biological condition at unsampled sites. We developed a boosted regression tree (BRT) model of biological condition, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity (BIBI), for streams in urbanized Southern Coastal California. We also developed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model as a benchmark for comparison with the BRT model. The BRT model explained 66% of the variance in B-IBI, identifying watershed population density and combined percentage agricultural and urban land cover in the riparian buffer as the most important predictors of B-IBI, but with watershed mean precipitation and watershed density of manmade channels also important. The MLR model explained 48% of the variance in B-IBI and included watershed population density and combined percentage agricultural and urban land cover in the riparian buffer. For a verification data set, the BRT model correctly classified 75% of impaired sites (B-IBI < 40) and 78% of unimpaired sites (B-IBI = 40). For the same verification data set, the MLR model correctly classified 69% of impaired sites and 87% of unimpaired sites. The BRT model should not be used to predict B-IBI for specific sites; however, the model can be useful for general applications such as identifying and prioritizing regions for monitoring, remediation or preservation, stratifying new bioassessments according to anticipated biological condition, or assessing the potential for change in stream biological condition based on anticipated changes in population density and development in stream buffers.

Guidelines for Developing and Reporting Machine Learning Predictive Models in Biomedical Research: A Multidisciplinary View.

PubMed

Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Tran, Truyen; Gupta, Sunil; Rana, Santu; Karmakar, Chandan; Shilton, Alistair; Yearwood, John; Dimitrova, Nevenka; Ho, Tu Bao; Venkatesh, Svetha; Berk, Michael

2016-12-16

As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs. To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence. A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method. The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models. A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community. ©Wei Luo, Dinh Phung, Truyen Tran, Sunil Gupta, Santu Rana, Chandan Karmakar, Alistair Shilton, John Yearwood, Nevenka Dimitrova, Tu Bao Ho, Svetha Venkatesh, Michael Berk. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 16.12.2016.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayram, Tuncay; Akkoyun, Serkan

2017-09-01

The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs) of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

2017-07-15

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p < 0.0001). The alternative predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

A Predictive Model for Microbial Counts on Beaches where Intertidal Sand is the Primary Source

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhixuan; Reniers, Ad; Haus, Brian K.; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M.; Wang, John D.; Fleming, Lora E.

2015-01-01

Human health protection at recreational beaches requires accurate and timely information on microbiological conditions to issue advisories. The objective of this study was to develop a new numerical mass balance model for enterococci levels on nonpoint source beaches. The significant advantage of this model is its easy implementation, and it provides a detailed description of the cross-shore distribution of enterococci that is useful for beach management purposes. The performance of the balance model was evaluated by comparing predicted exceedances of a beach advisory threshold value to field data, and to a traditional regression model. Both the balance model and regression equation predicted approximately 70% the advisories correctly at the knee depth and over 90% at the waist depth. The balance model has the advantage over the regression equation in its ability to simulate spatiotemporal variations of microbial levels, and it is recommended for making more informed management decisions. PMID:25840869

Computation and modeling of aero-thermal fields in turbine cascades and strongly curved ducts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, J.; Lakshminarayana, B.

1994-01-01

Advanced turbulence models are crucial for accurate prediction of rocket engine flows, due to existence of very large extra strain rates, such as strong streamline curvature. Numerical simulation of the turbulent flow in a strongly curved turn-around duct (TAD) has been carried out with a Reynolds stress model (RSM), an algebraic Reynolds stress model (ARSM) and a kappa-epsilon model. the RSM model and the ARSM model are found to capture the turbulence damping due to the convex curvature, but underpredict the turbulence enhancement caused by the concave curvature. To capture the concave curvature effects, it is necessary to modify the epsilon-equation. The modification of episilon-equation suggested by Launder, et.al, provides the correct trend, but over-corrects the curvature effects. A comparative study of two modes of transition in gas turbine, the by-pass transition and the separation-induced transition, has been carried out with several low-Reynolds-number (LRN) kappa-epsilon models. Effects of blade surface pressure gradient, freestream turbulence and Reynolds number on the blade boundary layer development, and particularly the inception of transition are examined in detail. The present study indicates that the turbine blade transition, in the presence of high freestream turbulence, is predicted well with LRN kappa-epsilon models employed.

Spacecraft Collision Avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussy-Virat, Charles

The rapid increase of the number of objects in orbit around the Earth poses a serious threat to operational spacecraft and astronauts. In order to effectively avoid collisions, mission operators need to assess the risk of collision between the satellite and any other object whose orbit is likely to approach its trajectory. Several algorithms predict the probability of collision but have limitations that impair the accuracy of the prediction. An important limitation is that uncertainties in the atmospheric density are usually not taken into account in the propagation of the covariance matrix from current epoch to closest approach time. The Spacecraft Orbital Characterization Kit (SpOCK) was developed to accurately predict the positions and velocities of spacecraft. The central capability of SpOCK is a high accuracy numerical propagator of spacecraft orbits and computations of ancillary parameters. The numerical integration uses a comprehensive modeling of the dynamics of spacecraft in orbit that includes all the perturbing forces that a spacecraft is subject to in orbit. In particular, the atmospheric density is modeled by thermospheric models to allow for an accurate representation of the atmospheric drag. SpOCK predicts the probability of collision between two orbiting objects taking into account the uncertainties in the atmospheric density. Monte Carlo procedures are used to perturb the initial position and velocity of the primary and secondary spacecraft from their covariance matrices. Developed in C, SpOCK supports parallelism to quickly assess the risk of collision so it can be used operationally in real time. The upper atmosphere of the Earth is strongly driven by the solar activity. In particular, abrupt transitions from slow to fast solar wind cause important disturbances of the atmospheric density, hence of the drag acceleration that spacecraft are subject to. The Probability Distribution Function (PDF) model was developed to predict the solar wind speed five days in advance. In particular, the PDF model is able to predict rapid enhancements in the solar wind speed. It was found that 60% of the positive predictions were correct, while 91% of the negative predictions were correct, and 20% to 33% of the peaks in the speed were found by the model. En-semble forecasts provide the forecasters with an estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction, which can be used to derive uncertainties in the atmospheric density and in the drag acceleration. The dissertation then demonstrates that uncertainties in the atmospheric density result in large uncertainties in the prediction of the probability of collision. As an example, the effects of a geomagnetic storm on the probability of collision are illustrated. The research aims at providing tools and analyses that help understand and predict the effects of uncertainties in the atmospheric density on the probability of collision. The ultimate motivation is to support mission operators in making the correct decision with regard to a potential collision avoidance maneuver by providing an uncertainty on the prediction of the probability of collision instead of a single value. This approach can help avoid performing unnecessary costly maneuvers, while making sure that the risk of collision is fully evaluated.

Improved model quality assessment using ProQ2.

PubMed

Ray, Arjun; Lindahl, Erik; Wallner, Björn

2012-09-10

Employing methods to assess the quality of modeled protein structures is now standard practice in bioinformatics. In a broad sense, the techniques can be divided into methods relying on consensus prediction on the one hand, and single-model methods on the other. Consensus methods frequently perform very well when there is a clear consensus, but this is not always the case. In particular, they frequently fail in selecting the best possible model in the hard cases (lacking consensus) or in the easy cases where models are very similar. In contrast, single-model methods do not suffer from these drawbacks and could potentially be applied on any protein of interest to assess quality or as a scoring function for sampling-based refinement. Here, we present a new single-model method, ProQ2, based on ideas from its predecessor, ProQ. ProQ2 is a model quality assessment algorithm that uses support vector machines to predict local as well as global quality of protein models. Improved performance is obtained by combining previously used features with updated structural and predicted features. The most important contribution can be attributed to the use of profile weighting of the residue specific features and the use features averaged over the whole model even though the prediction is still local. ProQ2 is significantly better than its predecessors at detecting high quality models, improving the sum of Z-scores for the selected first-ranked models by 20% and 32% compared to the second-best single-model method in CASP8 and CASP9, respectively. The absolute quality assessment of the models at both local and global level is also improved. The Pearson's correlation between the correct and local predicted score is improved from 0.59 to 0.70 on CASP8 and from 0.62 to 0.68 on CASP9; for global score to the correct GDT_TS from 0.75 to 0.80 and from 0.77 to 0.80 again compared to the second-best single methods in CASP8 and CASP9, respectively. ProQ2 is available at http://proq2.wallnerlab.org.

Predicting outcome in severe traumatic brain injury using a simple prognostic model.

PubMed

Sobuwa, Simpiwe; Hartzenberg, Henry Benjamin; Geduld, Heike; Uys, Corrie

2014-06-17

Several studies have made it possible to predict outcome in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) making it beneficial as an aid for clinical decision-making in the emergency setting. However, reliable predictive models are lacking for resource-limited prehospital settings such as those in developing countries like South Africa. To develop a simple predictive model for severe TBI using clinical variables in a South African prehospital setting. All consecutive patients admitted at two level-one centres in Cape Town, South Africa, for severe TBI were included. A binary logistic regression model was used, which included three predictor variables: oxygen saturation (SpO₂), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and pupil reactivity. The Glasgow Outcome Scale was used to assess outcome on hospital discharge. A total of 74.4% of the outcomes were correctly predicted by the logistic regression model. The model demonstrated SpO₂ (p=0.019), GCS (p=0.001) and pupil reactivity (p=0.002) as independently significant predictors of outcome in severe TBI. Odds ratios of a good outcome were 3.148 (SpO₂ ≥ 90%), 5.108 (GCS 6 - 8) and 4.405 (pupils bilaterally reactive). This model is potentially useful for effective predictions of outcome in severe TBI.

Docking and scoring protein complexes: CAPRI 3rd Edition.

PubMed

Lensink, Marc F; Méndez, Raúl; Wodak, Shoshana J

2007-12-01

The performance of methods for predicting protein-protein interactions at the atomic scale is assessed by evaluating blind predictions performed during 2005-2007 as part of Rounds 6-12 of the community-wide experiment on Critical Assessment of PRedicted Interactions (CAPRI). These Rounds also included a new scoring experiment, where a larger set of models contributed by the predictors was made available to groups developing scoring functions. These groups scored the uploaded set and submitted their own best models for assessment. The structures of nine protein complexes including one homodimer were used as targets. These targets represent biologically relevant interactions involved in gene expression, signal transduction, RNA, or protein processing and membrane maintenance. For all the targets except one, predictions started from the experimentally determined structures of the free (unbound) components or from models derived by homology, making it mandatory for docking methods to model the conformational changes that often accompany association. In total, 63 groups and eight automatic servers, a substantial increase from previous years, submitted docking predictions, of which 1994 were evaluated here. Fifteen groups submitted 305 models for five targets in the scoring experiment. Assessment of the predictions reveals that 31 different groups produced models of acceptable and medium accuracy-but only one high accuracy submission-for all the targets, except the homodimer. In the latter, none of the docking procedures reproduced the large conformational adjustment required for correct assembly, underscoring yet again that handling protein flexibility remains a major challenge. In the scoring experiment, a large fraction of the groups attained the set goal of singling out the correct association modes from incorrect solutions in the limited ensembles of contributed models. But in general they seemed unable to identify the best models, indicating that current scoring methods are probably not sensitive enough. With the increased focus on protein assemblies, in particular by structural genomics efforts, the growing community of CAPRI predictors is engaged more actively than ever in the development of better scoring functions and means of modeling conformational flexibility, which hold promise for much progress in the future. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Computation of turbulent high speed mixing layers using a two-equation turbulence model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narayan, J. R.; Sekar, B.

1991-01-01

A two-equation turbulence model was extended to be applicable for compressible flows. A compressibility correction based on modelling the dilational terms in the Reynolds stress equations were included in the model. The model is used in conjunction with the SPARK code for the computation of high speed mixing layers. The observed trend of decreasing growth rate with increasing convective Mach number in compressible mixing layers is well predicted by the model. The predictions agree well with the experimental data and the results from a compressible Reynolds stress model. The present model appears to be well suited for the study of compressible free shear flows. Preliminary results obtained for the reacting mixing layers are included.

Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.

Safety tests were conducted on fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800 °C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during 15 of these safety tests. Comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination results of the safety tests were conducted on two types of AGR-1 compacts: compactsmore » containing only intact particles and compacts containing one or more particles whose SiC layers failed during safety testing. In both cases, PARFUME globally over-predicted the experimental release fractions by several orders of magnitude: more than three (intact) and two (failed SiC) orders of magnitude for silver, more than three and up to two orders of magnitude for strontium, and up to two and more than one orders of magnitude for krypton. The release of cesium from intact particles was also largely over-predicted (by up to five orders of magnitude) but its release from particles with failed SiC was only over-predicted by a factor of about 3. These over-predictions can be largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. The integral release nature of the data makes it difficult to estimate the individual over-estimations in the kernel or each coating layer. Nevertheless, a tentative assessment of correction factors to these diffusivities was performed to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. The method could only be successfully applied to silver and cesium. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed because potential release during the safety tests could not be distinguished from matrix content released during irradiation. Furthermore, in the case of krypton, all the coating layers are partly retentive and the available data did not allow the level of retention in individual layers to be determined, hence preventing derivation of any correction factors.« less

Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

DOE PAGES

Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; ...

2016-04-07

Safety tests were conducted on fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800 °C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during 15 of these safety tests. Comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination results of the safety tests were conducted on two types of AGR-1 compacts: compactsmore » containing only intact particles and compacts containing one or more particles whose SiC layers failed during safety testing. In both cases, PARFUME globally over-predicted the experimental release fractions by several orders of magnitude: more than three (intact) and two (failed SiC) orders of magnitude for silver, more than three and up to two orders of magnitude for strontium, and up to two and more than one orders of magnitude for krypton. The release of cesium from intact particles was also largely over-predicted (by up to five orders of magnitude) but its release from particles with failed SiC was only over-predicted by a factor of about 3. These over-predictions can be largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. The integral release nature of the data makes it difficult to estimate the individual over-estimations in the kernel or each coating layer. Nevertheless, a tentative assessment of correction factors to these diffusivities was performed to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. The method could only be successfully applied to silver and cesium. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed because potential release during the safety tests could not be distinguished from matrix content released during irradiation. Furthermore, in the case of krypton, all the coating layers are partly retentive and the available data did not allow the level of retention in individual layers to be determined, hence preventing derivation of any correction factors.« less

Determination of the microbolometric FPA's responsivity with imaging system's radiometric considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gogler, Slawomir; Bieszczad, Grzegorz; Krupinski, Michal

2013-10-01

Thermal imagers and used therein infrared array sensors are subject to calibration procedure and evaluation of their voltage sensitivity on incident radiation during manufacturing process. The calibration procedure is especially important in so-called radiometric cameras, where accurate radiometric quantities, given in physical units, are of concern. Even though non-radiometric cameras are not expected to stand up to such elevated standards, it is still important, that the image faithfully represents temperature variations across the scene. Detectors used in thermal camera are illuminated by infrared radiation transmitted through an infrared transmitting optical system. Often an optical system, when exposed to uniform Lambertian source forms a non-uniform irradiation distribution in its image plane. In order to be able to carry out an accurate non-uniformity correction it is essential to correctly predict irradiation distribution from a uniform source. In the article a non-uniformity correction method has been presented, that takes into account optical system's radiometry. Predictions of the irradiation distribution have been confronted with measured irradiance values. Presented radiometric model allows fast and accurate non-uniformity correction to be carried out.

Phase I Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada with Errata Sheet 1, 2, 3, Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greg Ruskauff

2009-02-01

As prescribed in the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP) (DOE/NV, 1999) and Appendix VI of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended February 2008), the ultimate goal of transport analysis is to develop stochastic predictions of a contaminant boundary at a specified level of uncertainty. However, because of the significant uncertainty of the model results, the primary goal of this report was modified through mutual agreement between the DOE and the State of Nevada to assess the primary model components that contribute to this uncertainty and to postpone defining the contaminant boundary until additionalmore » model refinement is completed. Therefore, the role of this analysis has been to understand the behavior of radionuclide migration in the Pahute Mesa (PM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) model and to define, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the sensitivity of such behavior to (flow) model conceptualization and (flow and transport) parameterization.« less

The Recalibrated Sunspot Number: Impact on Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clette, F.; Lefevre, L.

2017-12-01

Recently and for the first time since their creation, the sunspot number and group number series were entirely revisited and a first fully recalibrated version was officially released in July 2015 by the World Data Center SILSO (Brussels). Those reference long-term series are widely used as input data or as a calibration reference by various solar cycle prediction methods. Therefore, past predictions may now need to be redone using the new sunspot series, and methods already used for predicting cycle 24 will require adaptations before attempting predictions of the next cycles.In order to clarify the nature of the applied changes, we describe the different corrections applied to the sunspot and group number series, which affect extended time periods and can reach up to 40%. While some changes simply involve constant scale factors, other corrections vary with time or follow the solar cycle modulation. Depending on the prediction method and on the selected time interval, this can lead to different responses and biases. Moreover, together with the new series, standard error estimates are also progressively added to the new sunspot numbers, which may help deriving more accurate uncertainties for predicted activity indices. We conclude on the new round of recalibration that is now undertaken in the framework of a broad multi-team collaboration articulated around upcoming ISSI workshops. We outline the future corrections that can still be expected in the future, as part of a permanent upgrading process and quality control. From now on, future sunspot-based predictive models should thus be made more adaptable, and regular updates of predictions should become common practice in order to track periodic upgrades of the sunspot number series, just like it is done when using other modern solar observational series.

Organizational Systems Theory and Command and Control Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Decentralized C2 • Problem is determinable • Many solutions • Predictable results • Low Risk • Slow feedback loop • Plans: Engineered or designed • C2...of these concepts in the Art of Command and the Science of Control, but lacks a proper model to assist commanders in determining how to correctly...commanders in determining how to correctly apply the concepts based on the operational environment. The paper concludes with a recommendation that the

Predicting chaos in memristive oscillator via harmonic balance method.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Duan, Shukai

2012-12-01

This paper studies the possible chaotic behaviors in a memristive oscillator with cubic nonlinearities via harmonic balance method which is also called the method of describing function. This method was proposed to detect chaos in classical Chua's circuit. We first transform the considered memristive oscillator system into Lur'e model and present the prediction of the existence of chaotic behaviors. To ensure the prediction result is correct, the distortion index is also measured. Numerical simulations are presented to show the effectiveness of theoretical results.

On the impact of power corrections in the prediction of B → K *μ+μ- observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descotes-Genon, Sébastien; Hofer, Lars; Matias, Joaquim; Virto, Javier

2014-12-01

The recent LHCb angular analysis of the exclusive decay B → K * μ + μ - has indicated significant deviations from the Standard Model expectations. Accurate predictions can be achieved at large K *-meson recoil for an optimised set of observables designed to have no sensitivity to hadronic input in the heavy-quark limit at leading order in α s . However, hadronic uncertainties reappear through non-perturbative ΛQCD /m b power corrections, which must be assessed precisely. In the framework of QCD factorisation we present a systematic method to include factorisable power corrections and point out that their impact on angular observables depends on the scheme chosen to define the soft form factors. Associated uncertainties are found to be under control, contrary to earlier claims in the literature. We also discuss the impact of possible non-factorisable power corrections, including an estimate of charm-loop effects. We provide results for angular observables at large recoil for two different sets of inputs for the form factors, spelling out the different sources of theoretical uncertainties. Finally, we comment on a recent proposal to explain the anomaly in B → K * μ + μ - observables through charm-resonance effects, and we propose strategies to test this proposal identifying observables and kinematic regions where either the charm-loop model can be disentangled from New Physics effects or the two options leave different imprints.

A turbulence model for pulsatile arterial flows.

PubMed

Younis, B A; Berger, S A

2004-10-01

Difficulties in predicting the behavior of some high Reynolds number flows in the circulatory system stem in part from the severe requirements placed on the turbulence model chosen to close the time-averaged equations of fluid motion. In particular, the successful turbulence model is required to (a) correctly capture the "nonequilibrium" effects wrought by the interactions of the organized mean-flow unsteadiness with the random turbulence, (b) correctly reproduce the effects of the laminar-turbulent transitional behavior that occurs at various phases of the cardiac cycle, and (c) yield good predictions of the near-wall flow behavior in conditions where the universal logarithmic law of the wall is known to be not valid. These requirements are not immediately met by standard models of turbulence that have been developed largely with reference to data from steady, fully turbulent flows in approximate local equilibrium. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of a turbulence model suited for use in arterial flows. The model is of the two-equation eddy-viscosity variety with dependent variables that are zero-valued at a solid wall and vary linearly with distance from it. The effects of transition are introduced by coupling this model to the local value of the intermittency and obtaining the latter from the solution of a modeled transport equation. Comparisons with measurements obtained in oscillatory transitional flows in circular tubes show that the model produces substantial improvements over existing closures. Further pulsatile-flow predictions, driven by a mean-flow wave form obtained in a diseased human carotid artery, indicate that the intermittency-modified model yields much reduced levels of wall shear stress compared to the original, unmodified model. This result, which is attributed to the rapid growth in the thickness of the viscous sublayer arising from the severe acceleration of systole, argues in favor of the use of the model for the prediction of arterial flows.

[Comparison BMC assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance in Chinese overweight and obesity adults].

PubMed

Wang, Zhenghe; Fu, Lianguo; Yang, Yide; Wang, Shuo; Ma, Jun

2016-05-01

To compare consistency of Body Mineral Content (BMC, kg) assessed by Multi-frequency Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis ( MF-BIA) and Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) measurement, providing evidence for MF-BIA accurate application in Chinese overweight/obese adults. A total of 1323 overweight/obesity adults aged 22-55 years were recruited voluntarily. All the subjects received the measurement of BMC both using MF-BIA and DXA. To evaluate the agreement of BMC measured by MF-BIA and DXA using interclass correlation coefficients (ICC), then establish correction prediction models. The mean difference of BMC between two methods was significant different with 0, overweight male subgroup was 0.28 kg, and 0.38 kg for obesity male, 0.24 kg for overweight female and 0.36 kg for obesity female, respectively (P < 0.05). The ICC of BMC between MF-BIA and DXA measurement were statistically significant in all subgroups (P < 0.01). The ICC for overweight male subgroup was 0.787, 0.796 for obesity male, 0.741 for overweight female and 0.788 for obesity female, respectively. Correction prediction model: overweight male population: BMC (DXA method) = -0.297 + 1.005 x BMC (MF-BIA method). Obese male population: BMC (DXA method) =0.302 + 0.799 x BMC (MF-BIA method). Overweight female groups: BMC (DXA method) = 0.780 + 0.598 x BMC (MF-BIA method). Obese female group: BMC (DXA method) = 0.755 + 0.597 x BMC (MF-BIA method). Upon examination, correction prediction models were better. Co The correlation and agreement of BMC measured by BIA and DXA are weak in Chinese overweight/obese adults. Therefore, consideration should be given to BMC measured by BIA method in Chinese overweight/obese adults. It should be corrected or adjusted to reduce errors compared with DXA method.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: effect of altitude correction and role for the Neonatal Research Network Prediction Algorithm.

PubMed

Gulliver, Kristina; Yoder, Bradley A

2018-05-09

To determine the effect of altitude correction on bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) rates and to assess validity of the NICHD "Neonatal BPD Outcome Estimator" for predicting BPD with and without altitude correction. Retrospective analysis included neonates born <30 weeks gestational age (GA) between 2010 and 2016. "Effective" FiO 2 requirements were determined at 36 weeks corrected GA. Altitude correction performed via ratio of barometric pressure (BP) in our unit to sea level BP. Probability of death and/or moderate-to-severe BPD was calculated using the NICHD BPD Outcome Estimator. Five hundred and sixty-one infants were included. Rate of moderate-to-severe BPD decreased from 71 to 40% following altitude correction. Receiver-operating characteristic curves indicated high predictability of BPD Outcome Estimator for altitude-corrected moderate-to-severe BPD diagnosis. Correction for altitude reduced moderate-to-severe BPD rate by almost 50%, to a rate consistent with recent published values. NICHD BPD Outcome Estimator is a valid tool for predicting the risk of moderate-to-severe BPD following altitude correction.

Analysis of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in Assessing Rounding Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weijie; Lu, Yanmin

2018-03-01

Most existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithms predict a rating as the preference of an active user toward a given item, which is always a decimal fraction. Meanwhile, the actual ratings in most data sets are integers. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate why rounding can bring different influences to these two metrics; prove that rounding is necessary in post-processing of the predicted ratings, eliminate of model prediction bias, improving the accuracy of the prediction. In addition, we also propose two new rounding approaches based on the predicted rating probability distribution, which can be used to round the predicted rating to an optimal integer rating, and get better prediction accuracy compared to the Basic Rounding approach. Extensive experiments on different data sets validate the correctness of our analysis and the effectiveness of our proposed rounding approaches.

Propeller aircraft interior noise model utilization study and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, L. D.

1984-01-01

Utilization and validation of a computer program designed for aircraft interior noise prediction is considered. The program, entitled PAIN (an acronym for Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise), permits (in theory) predictions of sound levels inside propeller driven aircraft arising from sidewall transmission. The objective of the work reported was to determine the practicality of making predictions for various airplanes and the extent of the program's capabilities. The ultimate purpose was to discern the quality of predictions for tonal levels inside an aircraft occurring at the propeller blade passage frequency and its harmonics. The effort involved three tasks: (1) program validation through comparisons of predictions with scale-model test results; (2) development of utilization schemes for large (full scale) fuselages; and (3) validation through comparisons of predictions with measurements taken in flight tests on a turboprop aircraft. Findings should enable future users of the program to efficiently undertake and correctly interpret predictions.

Optimizing the models for rapid determination of chlorogenic acid, scopoletin and rutin in plant samples by near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Zhiyi; Shan, Ruifeng; Wang, Jiajun; Cai, Wensheng; Shao, Xueguang

2014-07-01

Polyphenols in plant samples have been extensively studied because phenolic compounds are ubiquitous in plants and can be used as antioxidants in promoting human health. A method for rapid determination of three phenolic compounds (chlorogenic acid, scopoletin and rutin) in plant samples using near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (NIRDRS) is studied in this work. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was used for building the calibration models, and the effects of spectral preprocessing and variable selection on the models are investigated for optimization of the models. The results show that individual spectral preprocessing and variable selection has no or slight influence on the models, but the combination of the techniques can significantly improve the models. The combination of continuous wavelet transform (CWT) for removing the variant background, multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) for correcting the scattering effect and randomization test (RT) for selecting the informative variables was found to be the best way for building the optimal models. For validation of the models, the polyphenol contents in an independent sample set were predicted. The correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the contents determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis are as high as 0.964, 0.948 and 0.934 for chlorogenic acid, scopoletin and rutin, respectively.

Non-LTE line-blanketed model atmospheres of hot stars. 2: Hot, metal-rich white dwarfs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanz, T.; Hubeny, I.

1995-01-01

We present several model atmospheres for a typical hot metal-rich DA white dwarf, T(sub eff) = 60,000 K, log g = 7.5. We consider pure hydrogen models, as well as models with various abundances of two typical 'trace' elements-carbon and iron. We calculte a number of Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) and non-LTE models, taking into account the effect of numerous lines of these elements on the atmospheric structure. We demostrate that while the non-LTE effects are notvery significant for pure hydrogen models, except for describing correctly the central emission in H-alpha they are essential for predicting correctly the ionization balance of metals, such as carbon and iron. Previously reported discrepancies in LTE abundances determinations using C III and C IV lines are easily explained by non-LTE effects. We show that if the iron abundance is larger than 10(exp -5), the iron line opacity has to be considered not only for the spectrum synthesis, but also in the model construction itself. For such metal abundances, non-LTE metal line-blanketed models are needed for detailed abundance studies of hot, metal-rich white dwarfs. We also discuss the predicted Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum and show that it is very sensitive to metal abundances, as well as to non-LTE effects.

Reevaluation of a walleye (Sander vitreus) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Wang, Chunfang

2013-01-01

Walleye (Sander vitreus) is an important sport fish throughout much of North America, and walleye populations support valuable commercial fisheries in certain lakes as well. Using a corrected algorithm for balancing the energy budget, we reevaluated the performance of the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for walleye in the laboratory. Walleyes were fed rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) in four laboratory tanks each day during a 126-day experiment. Feeding rates ranged from 1.4 to 1.7 % of walleye body weight per day. Based on a statistical comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of monthly consumption with observed monthly consumption, we concluded that the bioenergetics model estimated food consumption by walleye without any significant bias. Similarly, based on a statistical comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of weight at the end of the monthly test period with observed weight, we concluded that the bioenergetics model predicted walleye growth without any detectable bias. In addition, the bioenergetics model predictions of cumulative consumption over the 126-day experiment differed fromobserved cumulative consumption by less than 10 %. Although additional laboratory and field testing will be needed to fully evaluate model performance, based on our laboratory results, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for walleye appears to be providing unbiased predictions of food consumption.

Application of Support Vector Machine to Forex Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamruzzaman, Joarder; Sarker, Ruhul A.

Previous studies have demonstrated superior performance of artificial neural network (ANN) based forex forecasting models over traditional regression models. This paper applies support vector machines to build a forecasting model from the historical data using six simple technical indicators and presents a comparison with an ANN based model trained by scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) learning algorithm. The models are evaluated and compared on the basis of five commonly used performance metrics that measure closeness of prediction as well as correctness in directional change. Forecasting results of six different currencies against Australian dollar reveal superior performance of SVM model using simple linear kernel over ANN-SCG model in terms of all the evaluation metrics. The effect of SVM parameter selection on prediction performance is also investigated and analyzed.

Humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation: The reference condition approach.

PubMed

Naveršnik, Klemen; Jurečič, Rok

2016-03-16

Accelerated and stress stability data is often used to predict shelf life of pharmaceuticals. Temperature, combined with humidity accelerates chemical decomposition and the Arrhenius equation is used to extrapolate accelerated stability results to long-term stability. Statistical estimation of the humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation is not straightforward due to its non-linearity. A two stage nonlinear fitting approach is used in practice, followed by a prediction stage. We developed a single-stage statistical procedure, called the reference condition approach, which has better statistical properties (less collinearity, direct estimation of uncertainty, narrower prediction interval) and is significantly easier to use, compared to the existing approaches. Our statistical model was populated with data from a 35-day stress stability study on a laboratory batch of vitamin tablets and required mere 30 laboratory assay determinations. The stability prediction agreed well with the actual 24-month long term stability of the product. The approach has high potential to assist product formulation, specification setting and stability statements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

2011-12-01

This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

Predicting cerulean warbler habitat use in the Cumberland Mountains of Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buehler, D.A.; Welton, M.J.; Beachy, T.A.

2006-12-15

We developed a habitat model to predict cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea) habitat availability in the Cumberland Mountains of eastern Tennessee. We used 7 remotely sensed vegetation and topographic landform explanatory variables and known locations of territorial male cerulean warblers mapped in 2003 as the response variable to develop a Mahalanobis distance statistic model of potential habitat. We evaluated the accuracy of the model based on field surveys for ceruleans during the 2004 breeding season. The model performed well with an 80% correct classification of cerulean presence based on the validation data, although prediction of absence was only 54% correct. Wemore » extrapolated from potential habitat to cerulean abundance based on density estimates from territory mapping on 8 20-ha plots in 2005. Over the 200,000-ha study area, we estimated there were 80,584 ha of potential habitat, capable of supporting about 36,500 breeding pairs. We applied the model to the 21,609-ha state-owned Royal Blue Wildlife Management Area to evaluate the potential effects of coal surface mining as one example of a potential conflict between land use and cerulean warbler conservation. Our models suggest coal surface mining could remove 2,954 ha of cerulean habitat on Royal Blue Wildlife Management Area and could displace 2,540 breeding pairs (23% of the Royal Blue population). A comprehensive conservation strategy is needed to address potential and realized habitat loss and degradation on the breeding grounds, during migration, and on the wintering grounds.« less

Temperature Data Assimilation with Salinity Corrections: Validation for the NSIPP Ocean Data Assimilation System in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, 1993-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troccoli, Alberto; Rienecker, Michele M.; Keppenne, Christian L.; Johnson, Gregory C.

2003-01-01

The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) has developed an Ocean data assimilation system to initialize the quasi-isopycnal ocean model used in our experimental coupled-model forecast system. Initial tests of the system have focused on the assimilation of temperature profiles in an optimal interpolation framework. It is now recognized that correction of temperature only often introduces spurious water masses. The resulting density distribution can be statically unstable and also have a detrimental impact on the velocity distribution. Several simple schemes have been developed to try to correct these deficiencies. Here the salinity field is corrected by using a scheme which assumes that the temperature-salinity relationship of the model background is preserved during the assimilation. The scheme was first introduced for a zlevel model by Troccoli and Haines (1999). A large set of subsurface observations of salinity and temperature is used to cross-validate two data assimilation experiments run for the 6-year period 1993-1998. In these two experiments only subsurface temperature observations are used, but in one case the salinity field is also updated whenever temperature observations are available.

Linear model correction: A method for transferring a near-infrared multivariate calibration model without standard samples.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Cai, Wensheng; Shao, Xueguang

2016-12-05

Calibration transfer is essential for practical applications of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy because the measurements of the spectra may be performed on different instruments and the difference between the instruments must be corrected. For most of calibration transfer methods, standard samples are necessary to construct the transfer model using the spectra of the samples measured on two instruments, named as master and slave instrument, respectively. In this work, a method named as linear model correction (LMC) is proposed for calibration transfer without standard samples. The method is based on the fact that, for the samples with similar physical and chemical properties, the spectra measured on different instruments are linearly correlated. The fact makes the coefficients of the linear models constructed by the spectra measured on different instruments are similar in profile. Therefore, by using the constrained optimization method, the coefficients of the master model can be transferred into that of the slave model with a few spectra measured on slave instrument. Two NIR datasets of corn and plant leaf samples measured with different instruments are used to test the performance of the method. The results show that, for both the datasets, the spectra can be correctly predicted using the transferred partial least squares (PLS) models. Because standard samples are not necessary in the method, it may be more useful in practical uses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measurement and Modeling of the Optical Scattering Properties of Crop Canopies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanderbilt, V. C. (Principal Investigator)

1985-01-01

The specular reflection process is shown to be a key aspect of radiation transfer by plant canopies. Polarization measurements are demonstrated as the tool for determining the specular and diffuse portions of the canopy radiance. The magnitude of the specular fraction of the reflectance is significant compared to the magnitude of the diffuse fraction. Therefore, it is necessary to consider specularly reflected light in developing and evaluating light-canopy interaction models for wheat canopies. Models which assume leaves are diffuse reflectors correctly predict only the diffuse fraction of the canopy reflectance factor. The specular reflectance model, when coupled with a diffuse leaf model, would predict both the specular and diffuse portions of the reflectance factor. The specular model predicts and the data analysis confirms that the single variable, angle of incidence of specularly reflected sunlight on the leaf, explains much of variation in the polarization data as a function of view-illumination directions.

A test of reproductive power in snakes.

PubMed

Boback, Scott M; Guyer, Craig

2008-05-01

Reproductive power is a contentious concept among ecologists, and the model has been criticized on theoretical and empirical grounds. Despite these criticisms, the model has successfully predicted the modal (optimal) size in three large taxonomic groups and the shape of the body size distribution in two of these groups. We tested the reproductive power model on snakes, a group that differs markedly in physiology, foraging ecology, and body shape from the endothermic groups upon which the model was derived. Using detailed field data from the published literature, snake-specific constants associated with reproductive power were determined using allometric relationships of energy invested annually in egg production and population productivity. The resultant model accurately predicted the mode and left side of the size distribution for snakes but failed to predict the right side of that distribution. If the model correctly describes what is possible in snakes, observed size diversity is limited, especially in the largest size classes.

Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, X.

2017-12-01

A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

Accuracy of 1D microvascular flow models in the limit of low Reynolds numbers.

PubMed

Pindera, Maciej Z; Ding, Hui; Athavale, Mahesh M; Chen, Zhijian

2009-05-01

We describe results of numerical simulations of steady flows in tubes with branch bifurcations using fully 3D and reduced 1D geometries. The intent is to delineate the range of validity of reduced models used for simulations of flows in microcapillary networks, as a function of the flow Reynolds number Re. Results from model problems indicate that for Re less than 1 and possibly as high as 10, vasculatures may be represented by strictly 1D Poiseuille flow geometries with flow variation in the axial dimensions only. In that range flow rate predictions in the different branches generated by 1D and 3D models differ by a constant factor, independent of Re. When the cross-sectional areas of the branches are constant these differences are generally small and appear to stem from an uncertainty of how the individual branch lengths are defined. This uncertainty can be accounted for by a simple geometrical correction. For non-constant cross-sections the differences can be much more significant. If additional corrections for the presence of branch junctions and flow area variations are not taken into account in 1D models of complex vasculatures, the resultant flow predictions should be interpreted with caution.

Paradigm of pretest risk stratification before coronary computed tomography.

PubMed

Jensen, Jesper Møller; Ovrehus, Kristian A; Nielsen, Lene H; Jensen, Jesper K; Larsen, Henrik M; Nørgaard, Bjarne L

2009-01-01

The optimal method of determining the pretest risk of coronary artery disease as a patient selection tool before coronary multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is unknown. We investigated the ability of 3 different clinical risk scores to predict the outcome of coronary MDCT. This was a retrospective study of 551 patients consecutively referred for coronary MDCT on a suspicion of coronary artery disease. Diamond-Forrester, Duke, and Morise risk models were used to predict coronary artery stenosis (>50%) as assessed by coronary MDCT. The models were compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The distribution of low-, intermediate-, and high-risk persons, respectively, was established and compared for each of the 3 risk models. Overall, all risk prediction models performed equally well. However, the Duke risk model classified the low-risk patients more correctly than did the other models (P < 0.01). In patients without coronary artery calcification (CAC), the predictive value of the Duke risk model was superior to the other risk models (P < 0.05). Currently available risk prediction models seem to perform better in patients without CAC. Between the risk prediction models, there was a significant discrepancy in the distribution of patients at low, intermediate, or high risk (P < 0.01). The 3 risk prediction models perform equally well, although the Duke risk score may have advantages in subsets of patients. The choice of risk prediction model affects the referral pattern to MDCT. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of creatine kinase correction on the predictive value of S-100B after mild traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Bazarian, Jeffrey J; Beck, Christopher; Blyth, Brian; von Ahsen, Nicolas; Hasselblatt, Martin

2006-01-01

To validate a correction factor for the extracranial release of the astroglial protein, S-100B, based on concomitant creatine kinase (CK) levels. The CK- S-100B relationship in non-head injured marathon runners was used to derive a correction factor for the extracranial release of S-100B. This factor was then applied to a separate cohort of 96 mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in whom both CK and S-100B levels were measured. Corrected S-100B was compared to uncorrected S-100B for the prediction of initial head CT, three-month headache and three-month post concussive syndrome (PCS). Corrected S-100B resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the prediction of 3-month headache (area under curve [AUC] 0.46 vs 0.52, p=0.02), but not PCS or initial head CT. Using a cutoff that maximizes sensitivity (> or = 90%), corrected S-100B improved the prediction of initial head CT scan (negative predictive value from 75% [95% CI, 2.6%, 67.0%] to 96% [95% CI: 83.5%, 99.8%]). Although S-100B is overall poorly predictive of outcome, a correction factor using CK is a valid means of accounting for extracranial release. By increasing the proportion of mild TBI patients correctly categorized as low risk for abnormal head CT, CK-corrected S100-B can further reduce the number of unnecessary brain CT scans performed after this injury.

Numerical study of combustion processes in afterburners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Xiaochun

1986-01-01

Mathematical models and numerical methods are presented for computer modeling of aeroengine afterburners. A computer code GEMCHIP is described briefly. The algorithms SIMPLER, for gas flow predictions, and DROPLET, for droplet flow calculations, are incorporated in this code. The block correction technique is adopted to facilitate convergence. The method of handling irregular shapes of combustors and flameholders is described. The predicted results for a low-bypass-ratio turbofan afterburner in the cases of gaseous combustion and multiphase spray combustion are provided and analyzed, and engineering guides for afterburner optimization are presented.

Pressure dependence of axisymmetric vortices in superfluid 3B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fetter, Alexander L.

1985-06-01

The pressure dependence of the vortex core in rotating 3B is studied in the Ginzburg-Landau formalism with two distinct models of the strong-coupling corrections. The parametrization of Sauls and Serene [Phys. Rev. B 24, 183 (1981)] predicts a transition from a core with large magnetic moment below ~10 bars to one with small magnetic moment for higher pressures, in qualitative agreement with experiments. The earlier one-parameter model of Brinkman, Serene, and Anderson predicts no such transition, with the core having a large moment for all values of the parameter δ.

Charge conservation in electronegativity equalization and its implications for the electrostatic properties of fluctuating-charge models.

PubMed

Chen, Jiahao; Martínez, Todd J

2009-07-28

An analytical solution of fluctuating-charge models using Gaussian elimination allows us to isolate the contribution of charge conservation effects in determining the charge distribution. We use this analytical solution to calculate dipole moments and polarizabilities and show that charge conservation plays a critical role in maintaining the correct translational invariance of the electrostatic properties predicted by these models.

Predicting the distribution of bed material accumulation using river network sediment budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Scott N.; Prosser, Ian P.; Hughes, Andrew O.

2006-10-01

Assessing the spatial distribution of bed material accumulation in river networks is important for determining the impacts of erosion on downstream channel form and habitat and for planning erosion and sediment management. A model that constructs spatially distributed budgets of bed material sediment is developed to predict the locations of accumulation following land use change. For each link in the river network, GIS algorithms are used to predict bed material supply from gullies, river banks, and upstream tributaries and to compare total supply with transport capacity. The model is tested in the 29,000 km2 Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia. It correctly predicts the presence or absence of accumulation in 71% of river links, which is significantly better performance than previous models, which do not account for spatial variability in sediment supply and transport capacity. Representing transient sediment storage is important for predicting smaller accumulations. Bed material accumulation is predicted in 25% of the river network, indicating its importance as an environmental problem in Australia.

Exchange-Hole Dipole Dispersion Model for Accurate Energy Ranking in Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction II: Nonplanar Molecules.

PubMed

Whittleton, Sarah R; Otero-de-la-Roza, A; Johnson, Erin R

2017-11-14

The crystal structure prediction (CSP) of a given compound from its molecular diagram is a fundamental challenge in computational chemistry with implications in relevant technological fields. A key component of CSP is the method to calculate the lattice energy of a crystal, which allows the ranking of candidate structures. This work is the second part of our investigation to assess the potential of the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) dispersion model for crystal structure prediction. In this article, we study the relatively large, nonplanar, mostly flexible molecules in the first five blind tests held by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. Four of the seven experimental structures are predicted as the energy minimum, and thermal effects are demonstrated to have a large impact on the ranking of at least another compound. As in the first part of this series, delocalization error affects the results for a single crystal (compound X), in this case by detrimentally overstabilizing the π-conjugated conformation of the monomer. Overall, B86bPBE-XDM correctly predicts 16 of the 21 compounds in the five blind tests, a result similar to the one obtained using the best CSP method available to date (dispersion-corrected PW91 by Neumann et al.). Perhaps more importantly, the systems for which B86bPBE-XDM fails to predict the experimental structure as the energy minimum are mostly the same as with Neumann's method, which suggests that similar difficulties (absence of vibrational free energy corrections, delocalization error,...) are not limited to B86bPBE-XDM but affect GGA-based DFT-methods in general. Our work confirms B86bPBE-XDM as an excellent option for crystal energy ranking in CSP and offers a guide to identify crystals (organic salts, conjugated flexible systems) where difficulties may appear.

Determining relevant parameters for a statistical tropical cyclone genesis tool based upon global model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halperin, D.; Hart, R. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Cossuth, J.

2013-12-01

Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has been a vexing problem for forecasters. While the literature describes environmental conditions which are necessary for TC genesis, predicting if and when a specific disturbance will organize and become a TC remains a challenge. As recently as 5-10 years ago, global models possessed little if any skill in forecasting TC genesis. However, due to increased resolution and more advanced model parameterizations, we have reached the point where global models can provide useful TC genesis guidance to operational forecasters. A recent study evaluated five global models' ability to predict TC genesis out to four days over the North Atlantic basin (Halperin et al. 2013). The results indicate that the models are indeed able to capture the genesis time and location correctly a fair percentage of the time. The study also uncovered model biases. For example, probability of detection and false alarm rate varies spatially within the basin. Also, as expected, the models' performance decreases with increasing lead time. In order to explain these and other biases, it is useful to analyze the model-indicated genesis events further to determine whether or not there are systematic differences between successful forecasts (hits), false alarms, and miss events. This study will examine composites of a number of physically-relevant environmental parameters (e.g., magnitude of vertical wind shear, aerially averaged mid-level relative humidity) and disturbance-based parameters (e.g., 925 hPa maximum wind speed, vertical alignment of relative vorticity) among each TC genesis event classification (i.e., hit, false alarm, miss). We will use standard statistical tests (e.g., Student's t test, Mann-Whitney-U Test) to calculate whether or not any differences are statistically significant. We also plan to discuss how these composite results apply to a few illustrative case studies. The results may help determine which aspects of the forecast are (in)correct and whether the incorrect aspects can be bias-corrected. This, in turn, may allow us to further enhance probabilistic forecasts of TC genesis.

Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an N-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex J.

2018-01-01

Most bias correction algorithms used in climatology, for example quantile mapping, are applied to univariate time series. They neglect the dependence between different variables. Those that are multivariate often correct only limited measures of joint dependence, such as Pearson or Spearman rank correlation. Here, an image processing technique designed to transfer colour information from one image to another—the N-dimensional probability density function transform—is adapted for use as a multivariate bias correction algorithm (MBCn) for climate model projections/predictions of multiple climate variables. MBCn is a multivariate generalization of quantile mapping that transfers all aspects of an observed continuous multivariate distribution to the corresponding multivariate distribution of variables from a climate model. When applied to climate model projections, changes in quantiles of each variable between the historical and projection period are also preserved. The MBCn algorithm is demonstrated on three case studies. First, the method is applied to an image processing example with characteristics that mimic a climate projection problem. Second, MBCn is used to correct a suite of 3-hourly surface meteorological variables from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) across a North American domain. Components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, a complicated set of multivariate indices that characterizes the risk of wildfire, are then calculated and verified against observed values. Third, MBCn is used to correct biases in the spatial dependence structure of CanRCM4 precipitation fields. Results are compared against a univariate quantile mapping algorithm, which neglects the dependence between variables, and two multivariate bias correction algorithms, each of which corrects a different form of inter-variable correlation structure. MBCn outperforms these alternatives, often by a large margin, particularly for annual maxima of the FWI distribution and spatiotemporal autocorrelation of precipitation fields.

Near Infrared Spectroscopy Facilitates Rapid Identification of Both Young and Mature Amazonian Tree Species.

PubMed

Lang, Carla; Costa, Flávia Regina Capellotto; Camargo, José Luís Campana; Durgante, Flávia Machado; Vicentini, Alberto

2015-01-01

Precise identification of plant species requires a high level of knowledge by taxonomists and presence of reproductive material. This represents a major limitation for those working with seedlings and juveniles, which differ morphologically from adults and do not bear reproductive structures. Near-infrared spectroscopy (FT-NIR) has previously been shown to be effective in species discrimination of adult plants, so if young and adults have a similar spectral signature, discriminant functions based on FT-NIR spectra of adults can be used to identify leaves from young plants. We tested this with a sample of 419 plants in 13 Amazonian species from the genera Protium and Crepidospermum (Burseraceae). We obtained 12 spectral readings per plant, from adaxial and abaxial surfaces of dried leaves, and compared the rate of correct predictions of species with discriminant functions for different combinations of readings. We showed that the best models for predicting species in early developmental stages are those containing spectral data from both young and adult plants (98% correct predictions of external samples), but even using only adult spectra it is still possible to attain good levels of identification of young. We obtained an average of 75% correct identifications of young plants by discriminant equations based only on adults, when the most informative wavelengths were selected. Most species were accurately predicted (75-100% correct identifications), and only three had poor predictions (27-60%). These results were obtained despite the fact that spectra of young individuals were distinct from those of adults when species were analyzed individually. We concluded that FT-NIR has a high potential in the identification of species even at different ontogenetic stages, and that young plants can be identified based on spectra of adults with reasonable confidence.

Bidirectional Contrast agent leakage correction of dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC)-MRI improves cerebral blood volume estimation and survival prediction in recurrent glioblastoma treated with bevacizumab.

PubMed

Leu, Kevin; Boxerman, Jerrold L; Lai, Albert; Nghiemphu, Phioanh L; Pope, Whitney B; Cloughesy, Timothy F; Ellingson, Benjamin M

2016-11-01

To evaluate a leakage correction algorithm for T 1 and T2* artifacts arising from contrast agent extravasation in dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) that accounts for bidirectional contrast agent flux and compare relative cerebral blood volume (CBV) estimates and overall survival (OS) stratification from this model to those made with the unidirectional and uncorrected models in patients with recurrent glioblastoma (GBM). We determined median rCBV within contrast-enhancing tumor before and after bevacizumab treatment in patients (75 scans on 1.5T, 19 scans on 3.0T) with recurrent GBM without leakage correction and with application of the unidirectional and bidirectional leakage correction algorithms to determine whether rCBV stratifies OS. Decreased post-bevacizumab rCBV from baseline using the bidirectional leakage correction algorithm significantly correlated with longer OS (Cox, P = 0.01), whereas rCBV change using the unidirectional model (P = 0.43) or the uncorrected rCBV values (P = 0.28) did not. Estimates of rCBV computed with the two leakage correction algorithms differed on average by 14.9%. Accounting for T 1 and T2* leakage contamination in DSC-MRI using a two-compartment, bidirectional rather than unidirectional exchange model might improve post-bevacizumab survival stratification in patients with recurrent GBM. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2016;44:1229-1237. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Modeling and Analysis of Structural Dynamics for a One-Tenth Scale Model NGST Sunshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John; Lienard, Sebastien; Brodeur, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

New modeling and analysis techniques have been developed for predicting the dynamic behavior of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) sunshield. The sunshield consists of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. Modeling the structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield is a challenging aspect of the problem due to the effects of membrane wrinkling. A finite element model of the sunshield was developed using an approximate engineering approach, the cable network method, to account for membrane wrinkling effects. Ground testing of a one-tenth scale model of the NGST sunshield were carried out to provide data for validating the analytical model. A series of analyses were performed to predict the behavior of the sunshield under the ground test conditions. Modal analyses were performed to predict the frequencies and mode shapes of the test article and transient response analyses were completed to simulate impulse excitation tests. Comparison was made between analytical predictions and test measurements for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield. In general, the results show good agreement with the analytical model correctly predicting the approximate frequency and mode shapes for the significant structural modes.

Predicting seasonal influenza transmission using functional regression models with temporal dependence.

PubMed

Oviedo de la Fuente, Manuel; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Muñoz, María Pilar; Domínguez, Àngela

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a novel approach that uses meteorological information to predict the incidence of influenza in Galicia (Spain). It extends the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models with dependent errors. These kinds of models are useful when the recent history of the incidence of influenza are readily unavailable (for instance, by delays on the communication with health informants) and the prediction must be constructed by correcting the temporal dependence of the residuals and using more accessible variables. A simulation study shows that the GLS estimators render better estimations of the parameters associated with the regression model than they do with the classical models. They obtain extremely good results from the predictive point of view and are competitive with the classical time series approach for the incidence of influenza. An iterative version of the GLS estimator (called iGLS) was also proposed that can help to model complicated dependence structures. For constructing the model, the distance correlation measure [Formula: see text] was employed to select relevant information to predict influenza rate mixing multivariate and functional variables. These kinds of models are extremely useful to health managers in allocating resources in advance to manage influenza epidemics.

Structural parameterization and functional prediction of antigenic polypeptome sequences with biological activity through quantitative sequence-activity models (QSAM) by molecular electronegativity edge-distance vector (VMED).

PubMed

Li, ZhiLiang; Wu, ShiRong; Chen, ZeCong; Ye, Nancy; Yang, ShengXi; Liao, ChunYang; Zhang, MengJun; Yang, Li; Mei, Hu; Yang, Yan; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Yuan; Zhou, Ping; Xiong, Qing; Xu, Hong; Liu, ShuShen; Ling, ZiHua; Chen, Gang; Li, GenRong

2007-10-01

Only from the primary structures of peptides, a new set of descriptors called the molecular electronegativity edge-distance vector (VMED) was proposed and applied to describing and characterizing the molecular structures of oligopeptides and polypeptides, based on the electronegativity of each atom or electronic charge index (ECI) of atomic clusters and the bonding distance between atom-pairs. Here, the molecular structures of antigenic polypeptides were well expressed in order to propose the automated technique for the computerized identification of helper T lymphocyte (Th) epitopes. Furthermore, a modified MED vector was proposed from the primary structures of polypeptides, based on the ECI and the relative bonding distance of the fundamental skeleton groups. The side-chains of each amino acid were here treated as a pseudo-atom. The developed VMED was easy to calculate and able to work. Some quantitative model was established for 28 immunogenic or antigenic polypeptides (AGPP) with 14 (1-14) A(d) and 14 other restricted activities assigned as "1"(+) and "0"(-), respectively. The latter comprised 6 A(b)(15-20), 3 A(k)(21-23), 2 E(k)(24-26), 2 H-2(k)(27 and 28) restricted sequences. Good results were obtained with 90% correct classification (only 2 wrong ones for 20 training samples) and 100% correct prediction (none wrong for 8 testing samples); while contrastively 100% correct classification (none wrong for 20 training samples) and 88% correct classification (1 wrong for 8 testing samples). Both stochastic samplings and cross validations were performed to demonstrate good performance. The described method may also be suitable for estimation and prediction of classes I and II for major histocompatibility antigen (MHC) epitope of human. It will be useful in immune identification and recognition of proteins and genes and in the design and development of subunit vaccines. Several quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed for various oligopeptides and polypeptides including 58 dipeptides and 31 pentapeptides with angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition by multiple linear regression (MLR) method. In order to explain the ability to characterize molecular structure of polypeptides, a molecular modeling investigation on QSAR was performed for functional prediction of polypeptide sequences with antigenic activity and heptapeptide sequences with tachykinin activity through quantitative sequence-activity models (QSAMs) by the molecular electronegativity edge-distance vector (VMED). The results showed that VMED exhibited both excellent structural selectivity and good activity prediction. Moreover, the results showed that VMED behaved quite well for both QSAR and QSAM of poly-and oligopeptides, which exhibited both good estimation ability and prediction power, equal to or better than those reported in the previous references. Finally, a preliminary conclusion was drawn: both classical and modified MED vectors were very useful structural descriptors. Some suggestions were proposed for further studies on QSAR/QSAM of proteins in various fields.

Influence of dose calculation algorithms on the predicted dose distribution and NTCP values for NSCLC patients.

PubMed

Nielsen, Tine B; Wieslander, Elinore; Fogliata, Antonella; Nielsen, Morten; Hansen, Olfred; Brink, Carsten

2011-05-01

To investigate differences in calculated doses and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) values between different dose algorithms. Six dose algorithms from four different treatment planning systems were investigated: Eclipse AAA, Oncentra MasterPlan Collapsed Cone and Pencil Beam, Pinnacle Collapsed Cone and XiO Multigrid Superposition, and Fast Fourier Transform Convolution. Twenty NSCLC patients treated in the period 2001-2006 at the same accelerator were included and the accelerator used for treatments were modeled in the different systems. The treatment plans were recalculated with the same number of monitor units and beam arrangements across the dose algorithms. Dose volume histograms of the GTV, PTV, combined lungs (excluding the GTV), and heart were exported and evaluated. NTCP values for heart and lungs were calculated using the relative seriality model and the LKB model, respectively. Furthermore, NTCP for the lungs were calculated from two different model parameter sets. Calculations and evaluations were performed both including and excluding density corrections. There are found statistical significant differences between the calculated dose to heart, lung, and targets across the algorithms. Mean lung dose and V20 are not very sensitive to change between the investigated dose calculation algorithms. However, the different dose levels for the PTV averaged over the patient population are varying up to 11%. The predicted NTCP values for pneumonitis vary between 0.20 and 0.24 or 0.35 and 0.48 across the investigated dose algorithms depending on the chosen model parameter set. The influence of the use of density correction in the dose calculation on the predicted NTCP values depends on the specific dose calculation algorithm and the model parameter set. For fixed values of these, the changes in NTCP can be up to 45%. Calculated NTCP values for pneumonitis are more sensitive to the choice of algorithm than mean lung dose and V20 which are also commonly used for plan evaluation. The NTCP values for heart complication are, in this study, not very sensitive to the choice of algorithm. Dose calculations based on density corrections result in quite different NTCP values than calculations without density corrections. It is therefore important when working with NTCP planning to use NTCP parameter values based on calculations and treatments similar to those for which the NTCP is of interest.

Do We Know the Actual Magnetopause Position for Typical Solar Wind Conditions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samsonov, A. A.; Gordeev, E.; Tsyganenko, N. A.; Safrankova, J.; Nemecek, Z.; Simunek, J.; Sibeck, D. G.; Toth, G.; Merkin, V. G.; Raeder, J.

2016-01-01

We compare predicted magnetopause positions at the subsolar point and four reference points in the terminator plane obtained from several empirical and numerical MHD (magnetohydrodynamics) models. Empirical models using various sets of magnetopause crossings and making different assumptions about the magnetopause shape predict significantly different magnetopause positions (with a scatter greater than 1 Earth radius (R (sub E)) even at the subsolar point. Axisymmetric magnetopause models cannot reproduce the cusp indentations or the changes related to the dipole tilt effect, and most of them predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than non axisymmetric models for typical solar wind conditions and zero tilt angle. Predictions of two global non axisymmetric models do not match each other, and the models need additional verification. MHD models often predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than the non axisymmetric empirical models, but the predictions of MHD simulations may need corrections for the ring current effect and decreases of the solar wind pressure that occur in the foreshock. Comparing MHD models in which the ring current magnetic field is taken into account with the empirical Lin et al. model, we find that the differences in the reference point positions predicted by these models are relatively small for B (sub z) equals 0 (note: B (sub z) is when the Earth's magnetic field points north versus Sun's magnetic field pointing south). Therefore, we assume that these predictions indicate the actual magnetopause position, but future investigations are still needed.

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

Improved partition equilibrium model for predicting analyte response in electrospray ionization mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Du, Lihong; White, Robert L

2009-02-01

A previously proposed partition equilibrium model for quantitative prediction of analyte response in electrospray ionization mass spectrometry is modified to yield an improved linear relationship. Analyte mass spectrometer response is modeled by a competition mechanism between analyte and background electrolytes that is based on partition equilibrium considerations. The correlation between analyte response and solution composition is described by the linear model over a wide concentration range and the improved model is shown to be valid for a wide range of experimental conditions. The behavior of an analyte in a salt solution, which could not be explained by the original model, is correctly predicted. The ion suppression effects of 16:0 lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) on analyte signals are attributed to a combination of competition for excess charge and reduction of total charge due to surface tension effects. In contrast to the complicated mathematical forms that comprise the original model, the simplified model described here can more easily be employed to predict analyte mass spectrometer responses for solutions containing multiple components. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Multidimensional B-Spline Correction for Accurate Modeling Sugar Puckering in QM/MM Simulations.

PubMed

Huang, Ming; Dissanayake, Thakshila; Kuechler, Erich; Radak, Brian K; Lee, Tai-Sung; Giese, Timothy J; York, Darrin M

2017-09-12

The computational efficiency of approximate quantum mechanical methods allows their use for the construction of multidimensional reaction free energy profiles. It has recently been demonstrated that quantum models based on the neglect of diatomic differential overlap (NNDO) approximation have difficulty modeling deoxyribose and ribose sugar ring puckers and thus limit their predictive value in the study of RNA and DNA systems. A method has been introduced in our previous work to improve the description of the sugar puckering conformational landscape that uses a multidimensional B-spline correction map (BMAP correction) for systems involving intrinsically coupled torsion angles. This method greatly improved the adiabatic potential energy surface profiles of DNA and RNA sugar rings relative to high-level ab initio methods even for highly problematic NDDO-based models. In the present work, a BMAP correction is developed, implemented, and tested in molecular dynamics simulations using the AM1/d-PhoT semiempirical Hamiltonian for biological phosphoryl transfer reactions. Results are presented for gas-phase adiabatic potential energy surfaces of RNA transesterification model reactions and condensed-phase QM/MM free energy surfaces for nonenzymatic and RNase A-catalyzed transesterification reactions. The results show that the BMAP correction is stable, efficient, and leads to improvement in both the potential energy and free energy profiles for the reactions studied, as compared with ab initio and experimental reference data. Exploration of the effect of the size of the quantum mechanical region indicates the best agreement with experimental reaction barriers occurs when the full CpA dinucleotide substrate is treated quantum mechanically with the sugar pucker correction.

Causal Rasch models.

PubMed

Stenner, A Jackson; Fisher, William P; Stone, Mark H; Burdick, Donald S

2013-01-01

Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

Causal Rasch models

PubMed Central

Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

2013-01-01

Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Variability in expression of anadromy by female Oncorhynchus mykiss within a river network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Justin S.; Dunham, Jason B.; Reeves, Gordon H.; McMillan, John R.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Jordan, Chris E.

2012-01-01

We described and predicted spatial variation in marine migration (anadromy) of female Oncorhynchus mykiss in the John Day River watershed, Oregon. We collected 149 juvenile O. mykiss across 72 sites and identified locations used by anadromous females by assigning maternal origin (anadromous versus non-anadromous) to each juvenile. These assignments used comparisons of strontium to calcium ratios in otolith primordia and freshwater growth regions to indicate maternal origin. We used logistic regression to predict probability of anadromy in relation to mean annual stream runoff using data from a subset of individuals. This model correctly predicted anadromy in a second sample of individuals with a moderate level of accuracy (e.g., 68% correctly predicted with a 0.5 classification threshold). Residuals from the models were not spatially autocorrelated, suggesting that remaining variability in the expression of anadromy was due to localized influences, as opposed to broad-scale gradients unrelated to mean annual stream runoff. These results are important for the management of O. mykiss because anadromous individuals (steelhead) within the John Day River watershed are listed as a threatened species, and it is difficult to discern juvenile steelhead from non-anadromous individuals (rainbow trout) in the field. Our results provide a broad-scale description and prediction of locations supporting anadromy, and new insight for habitat restoration, monitoring, and research to better manage and understand the expression of anadromy in O. mykiss.

Parsimonious estimation of the Wechsler Memory Scale, Fourth Edition demographically adjusted index scores: immediate and delayed memory.

PubMed

Miller, Justin B; Axelrod, Bradley N; Schutte, Christian

2012-01-01

The recent release of the Wechsler Memory Scale Fourth Edition contains many improvements from a theoretical and administration perspective, including demographic corrections using the Advanced Clinical Solutions. Although the administration time has been reduced from previous versions, a shortened version may be desirable in certain situations given practical time limitations in clinical practice. The current study evaluated two- and three-subtest estimations of demographically corrected Immediate and Delayed Memory index scores using both simple arithmetic prorating and regression models. All estimated values were significantly associated with observed index scores. Use of Lin's Concordance Correlation Coefficient as a measure of agreement showed a high degree of precision and virtually zero bias in the models, although the regression models showed a stronger association than prorated models. Regression-based models proved to be more accurate than prorated estimates with less dispersion around observed values, particularly when using three subtest regression models. Overall, the present research shows strong support for estimating demographically corrected index scores on the WMS-IV in clinical practice with an adequate performance using arithmetically prorated models and a stronger performance using regression models to predict index scores.

Correction to the paper “a simple model to determine the interrelation between the integral characteristics of hall thrusters” [Plasma Physics Reports 40, 229 (2014)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shumilin, V. P.; Shumilin, A. V.; Shumilin, N. V., E-mail: vladimirshumilin@yahoo.com

2015-11-15

The paper is devoted to comparison of experimental data with theoretical predictions concerning the dependence of the current of accelerated ions on the operating voltage of a Hall thruster with an anode layer. The error made in the paper published by the authors in Plasma Phys. Rep. 40, 229 (2014) occurred because of a misprint in the Encyclopedia of Low-Temperature Plasma. In the present paper, this error is corrected. It is shown that the simple model proposed in the above-mentioned paper is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental results.

Groundwater Flow Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greg Ruskauff

2006-06-01

The Pahute Mesa groundwater flow model supports the FFACO UGTA corrective action strategy objective of providing an estimate of the vertical and horizontal extent of contaminant migration for each CAU in order to predict contaminant boundaries. A contaminant boundary is the model-predicted perimeter that defines the extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear testing above background conditions exceeding Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) standards. The contaminant boundary will be composed of both a perimeter boundary and a lower hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) boundary. Additional results showing contaminant concentrations and the location of the contaminant boundary at selected times will also bemore » presented. These times may include the verification period, the end of the five-year proof-of-concept period, as well as other times that are of specific interest. The FFACO (1996) requires that the contaminant transport model predict the contaminant boundary at 1,000 years and “at a 95% level of confidence.” The Pahute Mesa Phase I flow model described in this report provides, through the flow fields derived from alternative hydrostratigraphic framework models (HFMs) and recharge models, one part of the data required to compute the contaminant boundary. Other components include the simplified source term model, which incorporates uncertainty and variability in the factors that control radionuclide release from an underground nuclear test (SNJV, 2004a), and the transport model with the concomitant parameter uncertainty as described in Shaw (2003). The uncertainty in all the above model components will be evaluated to produce the final contaminant boundary. This report documents the development of the groundwater flow model for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa CAUs.« less

Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Alps - an assessment from the Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ament, F.; Weusthoff, T.; Arpagaus, M.; Rotach, M.

2009-04-01

The main aim of the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE is to demonstrate the performance of today's models to forecast heavy precipitation and flood events in the Alpine region. Therefore an end-to-end, real-time forecasting system was installed and operated during the D PHASE Operations Period from June to November 2007. Part of this system are 30 numerical weather prediction models (deterministic as well as ensemble systems) operated by weather services and research institutes, which issue alerts if predicted precipitation accumulations exceed critical thresholds. Additionally to the real-time alerts, all relevant model fields of these simulations are stored in a central data archive. This comprehensive data set allows a detailed assessment of today's quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance in the Alpine region. We will present results of QPF verifications against Swiss radar and rain gauge data both from a qualitative point of view, in terms of alerts, as well as from a quantitative perspective, in terms of precipitation rate. Various influencing factors like lead time, accumulation time, selection of warning thresholds, or bias corrections will be discussed. Additional to traditional verifications of area average precipitation amounts, the performance of the models to predict the correct precipitation statistics without requiring a point-to-point match will be described by using modern Fuzzy verification techniques. Both analyses reveal significant advantages of deep convection resolving models compared to coarser models with parameterized convection. An intercomparison of the model forecasts themselves reveals a remarkably high variability between different models, and makes it worthwhile to evaluate the potential of a multi-model ensemble. Various multi-model ensemble strategies will be tested by combining D-PHASE models to virtual ensemble systems.

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Artificial Neural Network and application in calibration transfer of AOTF-based NIR spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenbo; Jiang, Chengzhi; Xu, Kexin; Wang, Bin

2002-09-01

Chemometrics is widely applied to develop models for quantitative prediction of unknown samples in Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. However, calibrated models generally fail when new instruments are introduced or replacement of the instrument parts occurs. Therefore, calibration transfer becomes necessary to avoid the costly, time-consuming recalibration of models. Piecewise Direct Standardization (PDS) has been proven to be a reference method for standardization. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is employed as an alternative to transfer spectra between instruments. Two Acousto-optic Tunable Filter NIR spectrometers are employed in the experiment. Spectra of glucose solution are collected on the spectrometers through transflectance mode. A Back propagation Network with two layers is employed to simulate the function between instruments piecewisely. Standardization subset is selected by Kennard and Stone (K-S) algorithm in the first two score space of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of spectra matrix. In current experiment, it is noted that obvious nonlinearity exists between instruments and attempts are made to correct such nonlinear effect. Prediction results before and after successful calibration transfer are compared. Successful transfer can be achieved by adapting window size and training parameters. Final results reveal that ANN is effective in correcting the nonlinear instrumental difference and a only 1.5~2 times larger prediction error is expected after successful transfer.

Simulating Streamflow Using Bias-corrected Multiple Satellite Rainfall Products in the Tekeze Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abitew, T. A.; Roy, T.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W.; Valdes, J. B.

2016-12-01

The Tekeze Basin supports one of Africans largest Arch Dam located in northern Ethiopian has vital role in hydropower generation. However, little has been done on the hydrology of the basin due to limited in situ hydroclimatological data. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to simulate streamflow upstream of the Tekeze Dam using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced by bias-corrected multiple satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, TMPA and PERSIANN-CCS). This talk will present the potential as well as skills of bias-corrected satellite rainfall products for streamflow prediction in in Tropical Africa. Additionally, the SWAT model results will also be compared with previous conceptual Hydrological models (HyMOD and HBV) from SERVIR Streamflow forecasting in African Basin project (http://www.swaat.arizona.edu/index.html).

Empirical parameterization of a model for predicting peptide helix/coil equilibrium populations.

PubMed Central

Andersen, N. H.; Tong, H.

1997-01-01

A modification of the Lifson-Roig formulation of helix/coil transitions is presented; it (1) incorporates end-capping and coulombic (salt bridges, hydrogen bonding, and side-chain interactions with charged termini and the helix dipole) effects, (2) helix-stabilizing hydrophobic clustering, (3) allows for different inherent termination probabilities of individual residues, and (4) differentiates helix elongation in the first versus subsequent turns of a helix. Each residue is characterized by six parameters governing helix formation. The formulation of the conditional probability of helix initiation and termination that we developed is essentially the same as one presented previously (Shalongo W, Stellwagen, E. 1995. Protein Sci 4:1161-1166) and nearly the mathematical equivalent of the new capping formulation incorporated in the model presented by Rohl et al. (1996. Protein Sci 5:2623-2637). Side-chain/side-chain interactions are, in most cases, incorporated as context dependent modifications of propagation rather than nucleation parameters. An alternative procedure for converting [theta]221 values to experimental fractional helicities () is presented. Tests of the program predictions suggest this method may have some advantages both for designed peptides and for the analysis of secondary structure preferences that could drive the formation of molten-globule intermediates on protein folding pathways. The model predicts the fractional helicity of 385 peptides with a root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) of 0.050 and locates (with precise definition of the termini in many cases) helices in proteins as well as competing methods. The propagation and nucleation parameters were derived from NMR data and from the CD data for a 79 peptide "learning set" for which an excellent fit resulted (RMSD = 0.0295). The current set of parameter corrections for capping boxes, helix dipole interactions, and side-chain/side-chain interactions (coulombic, hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic clustering), although still under development provide a significant improvement in both helix/coil equilibrium prediction for peptides and helix location in protein sequences. This is clearly evident in the rms deviations between CD measures and calculated values of fractional helicity for different classes of peptides before and after applying the corrections: for peptides lacking capping boxes and i/i + 3 and i/i + 4 side-chain/side-chain interactions RMSD = 0.044 (n = 164) versus RMSD = 0.054 (0.172 without the corrections, n = 221) for peptides that required context-dependent corrections of the parameters. If we restrict the analysis to N-acylated peptides with helix stabilizing side-chain/side-chain interactions (including N-capping boxes), the degree to which our corrections account for the stabilizing interaction can be judged from the change in helicity underestimation, (calc-CD): -0.15 +/- 0.10, which is reduced to -0.018 +/- 0.048 (n = 191) upon applying the corrections. PMID:9300492

Modeling of roll/pitch determination with horizon sensors - Oblate Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hablani, Hari B.

Model calculations are presented of roll/pitch determinations for oblate Earth, with horizon sensors. Two arrangements of a pair of horizon sensors are considered: left and right of the velocity vactor (i.e., along the pitch axis), and aft and forward (along the roll axis). Two approaches are used to obtain the roll/pitch oblateness corrections: (1) the crossing point approach, where the two crossings of the horizon sensor's scan and the earth's horizon are determined, and (2) by decomposing the angular deviation of the geocentric normal from the geodetic normal into roll and pitch components. It is shown that the two approaches yield essentially the same corrections if two sensors are used simultaneously. However, if the spacecraft is outfitted with only one sensor, the oblateness correction about one axis is far different from that predicted by the geocentric/geodetic angular deviation approach. In this case, the corrections may be calculated on ground for the sensor location under consideration and stored in the flight computer, using the crossing point approach.

Ase1/Prc1-dependent spindle elongation corrects merotely during anaphase in fission yeast

PubMed Central

Courtheoux, Thibault; Gay, Guillaume; Tournier, Sylvie

2009-01-01

Faithful segregation of sister chromatids requires the attachment of each kinetochore (Kt) to microtubules (MTs) that extend from opposite spindle poles. Merotelic Kt orientation is a Kt–MT misattachment in which a single Kt binds MTs from both spindle poles rather than just one. Genetic induction of merotelic Kt attachment during anaphase in fission yeast resulted in intra-Kt stretching followed by either correction or Kt disruption. Laser ablation of spindle MTs revealed that intra-Kt stretching and merotelic correction were dependent on MT forces. The presence of multiple merotelic chromosomes linearly antagonized the spindle elongation rate, and this phenomenon could be solved numerically using a simple force balance model. Based on the predictions of our mechanical model, we provide in vivo evidence that correction of merotelic attachment in anaphase is tension dependent and requires an Ase1/Prc1-dependent mechanism that prevents spindle collapse and thus asymmetric division and/or the appearance of the cut phenotype. PMID:19948483

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

2015-05-01

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

MULTI-KEV X-RAY YIELDS FROM HIGH-Z GAS TARGETS FIELDED AT OMEGA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kane, J O; Fournier, K B; May, M J

2010-11-04

The authors report on modeling of x-ray yield from gas-filled targets shot at the OMEGA laser facility. The OMEGA targets were 1.8 mm long, 1.95 mm in diameter Be cans filled with either a 50:50 Ar:Xe mixture, pure Ar, pure Kr or pure Xe at {approx} 1 atm. The OMEGA experiments heated the gas with 20 kJ of 3{omega} ({approx} 350 nm) laser energy delivered in a 1 ns square pulse. the emitted x-ray flux was monitored with the x-ray diode based DANTE instruments in the sub-keV range. Two-dimensional x-ray images (for energies 3-5 keV) of the targets were recordedmore » with gated x-ray detectors. The x-ray spectra were recorded with the HENWAY crystal spectrometer at OMEGA. Predictions are 2D r-z cylindrical with DCA NLTE atomic physics. Models generally: (1) underpredict the Xe L-shell yields; (2) overpredict the Ar K-shell yields; (3) correctly predict the Xe thermal yields; and (4) greatly underpredict the Ar thermal yields. However, there are spreads within the data, e.g. the DMX Ar K-shell yields are correctly predicted. The predicted thermal yields show strong angular dependence.« less

Correction of Dual-PRF Doppler Velocity Outliers in the Presence of Aliasing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Altube, Patricia; Bech, Joan; Argemí, Oriol

In Doppler weather radars, the presence of unfolding errors or outliers is a well-known quality issue for radial velocity fields estimated using the dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) technique. Postprocessing methods have been developed to correct dual-PRF outliers, but these need prior application of a dealiasing algorithm for an adequate correction. Our paper presents an alternative procedure based on circular statistics that corrects dual-PRF errors in the presence of extended Nyquist aliasing. The correction potential of the proposed method is quantitatively tested by means of velocity field simulations and is exemplified in the application to real cases, including severe storm events.more » The comparison with two other existing correction methods indicates an improved performance in the correction of clustered outliers. The technique we propose is well suited for real-time applications requiring high-quality Doppler radar velocity fields, such as wind shear and mesocyclone detection algorithms, or assimilation in numerical weather prediction models.« less

Correction of Dual-PRF Doppler Velocity Outliers in the Presence of Aliasing

DOE PAGES

Altube, Patricia; Bech, Joan; Argemí, Oriol; ...

2017-07-18

In Doppler weather radars, the presence of unfolding errors or outliers is a well-known quality issue for radial velocity fields estimated using the dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) technique. Postprocessing methods have been developed to correct dual-PRF outliers, but these need prior application of a dealiasing algorithm for an adequate correction. Our paper presents an alternative procedure based on circular statistics that corrects dual-PRF errors in the presence of extended Nyquist aliasing. The correction potential of the proposed method is quantitatively tested by means of velocity field simulations and is exemplified in the application to real cases, including severe storm events.more » The comparison with two other existing correction methods indicates an improved performance in the correction of clustered outliers. The technique we propose is well suited for real-time applications requiring high-quality Doppler radar velocity fields, such as wind shear and mesocyclone detection algorithms, or assimilation in numerical weather prediction models.« less

A prediction model for lift-fan simulator performance. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuska, J. A.

1972-01-01

The performance characteristics of a model VTOL lift-fan simulator installed in a two-dimensional wing are presented. The lift-fan simulator consisted of a 15-inch diameter fan driven by a turbine contained in the fan hub. The performance of the lift-fan simulator was measured in two ways: (1) the calculated momentum thrust of the fan and turbine (total thrust loading), and (2) the axial-force measured on a load cell force balance (axial-force loading). Tests were conducted over a wide range of crossflow velocities, corrected tip speeds, and wing angle of attack. A prediction modeling technique was developed to help in analyzing the performance characteristics of lift-fan simulators. A multiple linear regression analysis technique is presented which calculates prediction model equations for the dependent variables.

Prediction of nearfield jet entrainment by an interactive mixing/afterburning model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dash, S. M.; Pergament, H. S.; Wilmoth, R. G.

1978-01-01

The development of a computational model (BOAT) for calculating nearfield jet entrainment, and its application to the prediction of nozzle boattail pressures, is discussed. BOAT accounts for the detailed turbulence and thermochemical processes occurring in the nearfield shear layers of jet engine (and rocket) exhaust plumes while interfacing with the inviscid exhaust and external flowfield regions in an overlaid, interactive manner. The ability of the model to analyze simple free shear flows is assessed by detailed comparisons with fundamental laboratory data. The overlaid methodology and the entrainment correction employed to yield the effective plume boundary conditions are assessed via application of BOAT in conjunction with the codes comprising the NASA/LRC patched viscous/inviscid model for determining nozzle boattail drag for subsonic/transonic external flows. Comparisons between the predictions and data on underexpanded laboratory cold air jets are presented.

Feedforward operation of a lens setup for large defocus and astigmatism correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraete, Hans R. G. W.; Almasian, MItra; Pozzi, Paolo; Bilderbeek, Rolf; Kalkman, Jeroen; Faber, Dirk J.; Verhaegen, Michel

2016-04-01

In this manuscript, we present a lens setup for large defocus and astigmatism correction. A deformable defocus lens and two rotational cylindrical lenses are used to control the defocus and astigmatism. The setup is calibrated using a simple model that allows the calculation of the lens inputs so that a desired defocus and astigmatism are actuated on the eye. The setup is tested by determining the feedforward prediction error, imaging a resolution target, and removing introduced aberrations.

Simulating the electrohydrodynamics of a viscous droplet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theillard, Maxime; Saintillan, David

2016-11-01

We present a novel numerical approach for the simulation of viscous drop placed in an electric field in two and three spatial dimensions. Our method is constructed as a stable projection method on Quad/Octree grids. Using a modified pressure correction we were able to alleviate the standard time step restriction incurred by capillary forces. In weak electric fields, our results match remarkably well with the predictions from the Taylor-Melcher leaky dielectric model. In strong electric fields the so-called Quincke rotation is correctly reproduced.

Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs - A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Marcos, Raül; Llasat, Ma Carmen; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

2018-01-01

In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog). The results have been compared with climatology and persistence. The volume-anomaly model is a previously computed Multiple Linear Regression that ingests precipitation, temperature and in-flow anomaly data to simulate monthly volume anomalies. The potential utility for end-users has been assessed using economic value curve areas. We have studied the S4 hindcast period 1981-2010 for each month of the year and up to seven months ahead considering an ensemble of 15 members. We have shown that the MOS-analog and LR bias corrections can improve the original S4. The application to volume anomalies points towards the possibility to introduce bias correction methods as a tool to improve water resource seasonal forecasts in an end-user context of climate services. Particularly, the MOS-analog approach gives generally better results than the other approaches in late autumn and early winter. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Behavioral and Neural Mechanisms Underlying the Tracking of Expertise

PubMed Central

Boorman, Erie D.; O’Doherty, John P.; Adolphs, Ralph; Rangel, Antonio

2013-01-01

Summary Evaluating the abilities of others is fundamental for successful economic and social behavior. We investigated the computational and neurobiological basis of ability tracking by designing an fMRI task that required participants to use and update estimates of both people and algorithms’ expertise through observation of their predictions. Behaviorally, we find a model-based algorithm characterized subject predictions better than several alternative models. Notably, when the agent’s prediction was concordant rather than discordant with the subject’s own likely prediction, participants credited people more than algorithms for correct predictions and penalized them less for incorrect predictions. Neurally, many components of the mentalizing network—medial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate gyrus, temporoparietal junction, and precuneus—represented or updated expertise beliefs about both people and algorithms. Moreover, activity in lateral orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortex reflected behavioral differences in learning about people and algorithms. These findings provide basic insights into the neural basis of social learning. PMID:24360551

An etiologic prediction model incorporating biomarkers to predict the bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines: a pilot study.

PubMed

Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Carta, Angela; Arici, Cecilia; Pavanello, Sofia; Porru, Stefano

2017-01-01

No etiological prediction model incorporating biomarkers is available to predict bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines. Cases were 199 bladder cancer patients. Clinical, laboratory and genetic data were predictors in logistic regression models (full and short) in which the dependent variable was 1 for 15 patients with aromatic amines related bladder cancer and 0 otherwise. The receiver operating characteristics approach was adopted; the area under the curve was used to evaluate discriminatory ability of models. Area under the curve was 0.93 for the full model (including age, smoking and coffee habits, DNA adducts, 12 genotypes) and 0.86 for the short model (including smoking, DNA adducts, 3 genotypes). Using the "best cut-off" of predicted probability of a positive outcome, percentage of cases correctly classified was 92% (full model) against 75% (short model). Cancers classified as "positive outcome" are those to be referred for evaluation by an occupational physician for etiological diagnosis; these patients were 28 (full model) or 60 (short model). Using 3 genotypes instead of 12 can double the number of patients with suspect of aromatic amine related cancer, thus increasing costs of etiologic appraisal. Integrating clinical, laboratory and genetic factors, we developed the first etiologic prediction model for aromatic amine related bladder cancer. Discriminatory ability was excellent, particularly for the full model, allowing individualized predictions. Validation of our model in external populations is essential for practical use in the clinical setting.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models.

PubMed

Daniels, Bryan C; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-08-21

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.

Calculation of turbulence-driven secondary motion in ducts with arbitrary cross section

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demuren, A. O.

1989-01-01

Calculation methods for turbulent duct flows are generalized for ducts with arbitrary cross-sections. The irregular physical geometry is transformed into a regular one in computational space, and the flow equations are solved with a finite-volume numerical procedure. The turbulent stresses are calculated with an algebraic stress model derived by simplifying model transport equations for the individual Reynolds stresses. Two variants of such a model are considered. These procedures enable the prediction of both the turbulence-driven secondary flow and the anisotropy of the Reynolds stresses, in contrast to some of the earlier calculation methods. Model predictions are compared to experimental data for developed flow in triangular duct, trapezoidal duct and a rod-bundle geometry. The correct trends are predicted, and the quantitative agreement is mostly fair. The simpler variant of the algebraic stress model procured better agreement with the measured data.

Predictive simulation of bidirectional Glenn shunt using a hybrid blood vessel model.

PubMed

Li, Hao; Leow, Wee Kheng; Chiu, Ing-Sh

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a method for performing predictive simulation of cardiac surgery. It applies a hybrid approach to model the deformation of blood vessels. The hybrid blood vessel model consists of a reference Cosserat rod and a surface mesh. The reference Cosserat rod models the blood vessel's global bending, stretching, twisting and shearing in a physically correct manner, and the surface mesh models the surface details of the blood vessel. In this way, the deformation of blood vessels can be computed efficiently and accurately. Our predictive simulation system can produce complex surgical results given a small amount of user inputs. It allows the surgeon to easily explore various surgical options and evaluate them. Tests of the system using bidirectional Glenn shunt (BDG) as an application example show that the results produc by the system are similar to real surgical results.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

PubMed Central

Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-01-01

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508

Acid–base chemical reaction model for nucleation rates in the polluted atmospheric boundary layer

PubMed Central

Chen, Modi; Titcombe, Mari; Jiang, Jingkun; Jen, Coty; Kuang, Chongai; Fischer, Marc L.; Eisele, Fred L.; Siepmann, J. Ilja; Hanson, David R.; Zhao, Jun; McMurry, Peter H.

2012-01-01

Climate models show that particles formed by nucleation can affect cloud cover and, therefore, the earth's radiation budget. Measurements worldwide show that nucleation rates in the atmospheric boundary layer are positively correlated with concentrations of sulfuric acid vapor. However, current nucleation theories do not correctly predict either the observed nucleation rates or their functional dependence on sulfuric acid concentrations. This paper develops an alternative approach for modeling nucleation rates, based on a sequence of acid–base reactions. The model uses empirical estimates of sulfuric acid evaporation rates obtained from new measurements of neutral molecular clusters. The model predicts that nucleation rates equal the sulfuric acid vapor collision rate times a prefactor that is less than unity and that depends on the concentrations of basic gaseous compounds and preexisting particles. Predicted nucleation rates and their dependence on sulfuric acid vapor concentrations are in reasonable agreement with measurements from Mexico City and Atlanta. PMID:23091030

Acid-base chemical reaction model for nucleation rates in the polluted atmospheric boundary layer.

PubMed

Chen, Modi; Titcombe, Mari; Jiang, Jingkun; Jen, Coty; Kuang, Chongai; Fischer, Marc L; Eisele, Fred L; Siepmann, J Ilja; Hanson, David R; Zhao, Jun; McMurry, Peter H

2012-11-13

Climate models show that particles formed by nucleation can affect cloud cover and, therefore, the earth's radiation budget. Measurements worldwide show that nucleation rates in the atmospheric boundary layer are positively correlated with concentrations of sulfuric acid vapor. However, current nucleation theories do not correctly predict either the observed nucleation rates or their functional dependence on sulfuric acid concentrations. This paper develops an alternative approach for modeling nucleation rates, based on a sequence of acid-base reactions. The model uses empirical estimates of sulfuric acid evaporation rates obtained from new measurements of neutral molecular clusters. The model predicts that nucleation rates equal the sulfuric acid vapor collision rate times a prefactor that is less than unity and that depends on the concentrations of basic gaseous compounds and preexisting particles. Predicted nucleation rates and their dependence on sulfuric acid vapor concentrations are in reasonable agreement with measurements from Mexico City and Atlanta.

Some Recent Developments in Turbulence Closure Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durbin, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Turbulence closure models are central to a good deal of applied computational fluid dynamical analysis. Closure modeling endures as a productive area of research. This review covers recent developments in elliptic relaxation and elliptic blending models, unified rotation and curvature corrections, transition prediction, hybrid simulation, and data-driven methods. The focus is on closure models in which transport equations are solved for scalar variables, such as the turbulent kinetic energy, a timescale, or a measure of anisotropy. Algebraic constitutive representations are reviewed for their role in relating scalar closures to the Reynolds stress tensor. Seamless and nonzonal methods, which invoke a single closure model, are reviewed, especially detached eddy simulation (DES) and adaptive DES. Other topics surveyed include data-driven modeling and intermittency and laminar fluctuation models for transition prediction. The review concludes with an outlook.

Improving Flood Prediction By the Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture in Poorly Monitored Catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Crow, W. T.; Su, C. H.; Robertson, D. E.

2014-12-01

Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particular, is the assimilation of satellite soil moisture (SM-DA) into rainfall-runoff models. The rationale is that satellite soil moisture (SSM) can be used to correct model soil water states, enabling more accurate prediction of catchment response to precipitation and thus better streamflow. However, there is still no consensus on the most effective SM-DA scheme and how this might depend on catchment scale, climate characteristics, runoff mechanisms, model and SSM products used, etc. In this work, an operational SM-DA scheme was set up in the poorly monitored, large (>40,000 km2), semi-arid Warrego catchment situated in eastern Australia. We assimilated passive and active SSM products into the probability distributed model (PDM) using an ensemble Kalman filter. We explored factors influencing the SM-DA framework, including relatively new techniques to remove model-observation bias, estimate observation errors and represent model errors. Furthermore, we explored the advantages of accounting for the spatial distribution of forcing and channel routing processes within the catchment by implementing and comparing lumped and semi-distributed model setups. Flood prediction is improved by SM-DA (Figure), with a 30% reduction of the average root-mean-squared difference of the ensemble prediction, a 20% reduction of the false alarm ratio and a 40% increase of the ensemble mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. SM-DA skill does not significantly change with different observation error assumptions, but the skill strongly depends on the observational bias correction technique used, and more importantly, on the performance of the open-loop model before assimilation. Our findings imply that proper pre-processing of SSM is important for the efficacy of the SM-DA and assimilation performance is critically affected by the quality of model calibration. We therefore recommend focusing efforts on these two factors, while further evaluating the trade-offs between model complexity and data availability.

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM

PubMed Central

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei

2018-01-01

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. PMID:29342942