Introduction to Adjoint Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

In this lecture, some fundamentals of adjoint models will be described. This includes a basic derivation of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models from a parent nonlinear model, the interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity fields, a description of methods of automatic differentiation, and the use of adjoint models to solve various optimization problems, including singular vectors. Concluding remarks will attempt to correct common misconceptions about adjoint models and their utilization.

unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Chandler, Richard B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

Fallon, Nevada FORGE Distinct Element Reservoir Modeling

DOE Data Explorer

Blankenship, Doug; Pettitt, Will; Riahi, Azadeh; Hazzard, Jim; Blanksma, Derrick

2018-03-12

Archive containing input/output data for distinct element reservoir modeling for Fallon FORGE. Models created using 3DEC, InSite, and in-house Python algorithms (ITASCA). List of archived files follows; please see 'Modeling Metadata.pdf' (included as a resource below) for additional file descriptions. Data sources include regional geochemical model, well positions and geometry, principal stress field, capability for hydraulic fractures, capability for hydro-shearing, reservoir geomechanical model-stimulation into multiple zones, modeled thermal behavior during circulation, and microseismicity.

Hierarchical models of very large problems, dilemmas, prospects, and an agenda for the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, J. M., Jr.

1975-01-01

Interdisciplinary approaches to the modeling of global problems are discussed in terms of multilevel cooperation. A multilevel regionalized model of the Lake Erie Basin is analyzed along with a multilevel regionalized world modeling project. Other topics discussed include: a stratified model of interacting region in a world system, and the application of the model to the world food crisis in south Asia. Recommended research for future development of integrated models is included.

The dynamics of life stressors and depressive symptoms in early adolescence: a test of six theoretical models.

PubMed

Clements, Margaret; Aber, J Lawrence; Seidman, Edward

2008-01-01

Structural equation modeling was used to compare 6 competing theoretically based psychosocial models of the longitudinal association between life stressors and depressive symptoms in a sample of early adolescents (N= 907; 40% Hispanic, 32% Black, and 19% White; mean age at Time 1 = 11.4 years). Only two models fit the data, both of which included paths modeling the effect of depressive symptoms on stressors recall: The mood-congruent cognitive bias model included only depressive symptoms to life stressors paths (DS-->S), whereas the fully transactional model included paths representing both the DS-->S and stressors to depressive symptoms (S-->DS) effects. Social causation models and the stress generation model did not fit the data. Findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for mood-congruent cognitive bias in stressors-depressive symptoms investigations.

Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Jae H. (Editor); Ko, Malcolm K. W. (Editor); Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Plumb, R. Alan (Editor); Kaye, Jack A. (Editor); Sage, Karen H. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

Treesearch

Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

2002-01-01

Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

Multivariate Analysis of Seismic Field Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, M. Kathleen

1999-06-01

This report includes the details of the model building procedure and prediction of seismic field data. Principal Components Regression, a multivariate analysis technique, was used to model seismic data collected as two pieces of equipment were cycled on and off. Models built that included only the two pieces of equipment of interest had trouble predicting data containing signals not included in the model. Evidence for poor predictions came from the prediction curves as well as spectral F-ratio plots. Once the extraneous signals were included in the model, predictions improved dramatically. While Principal Components Regression performed well for the present datamore » sets, the present data analysis suggests further work will be needed to develop more robust modeling methods as the data become more complex.« less

Augmenting an observation network to facilitate flow and transport model discrimination.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving understanding of subsurface conditions includes performance comparison for competing models, independently developed or obtained via model abstraction. The model comparison and discrimination can be improved if additional observations will be included. The objective of this work was to i...

Object-oriented biomedical system modelling--the language.

PubMed

Hakman, M; Groth, T

1999-11-01

The paper describes a new object-oriented biomedical continuous system modelling language (OOBSML). It is fully object-oriented and supports model inheritance, encapsulation, and model component instantiation and behaviour polymorphism. Besides the traditional differential and algebraic equation expressions the language includes also formal expressions for documenting models and defining model quantity types and quantity units. It supports explicit definition of model input-, output- and state quantities, model components and component connections. The OOBSML model compiler produces self-contained, independent, executable model components that can be instantiated and used within other OOBSML models and/or stored within model and model component libraries. In this way complex models can be structured as multilevel, multi-component model hierarchies. Technically the model components produced by the OOBSML compiler are executable computer code objects based on distributed object and object request broker technology. This paper includes both the language tutorial and the formal language syntax and semantic description.

Stirling System Modeling for Space Nuclear Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Johnson, Paul K.

2008-01-01

A dynamic model of a high-power Stirling convertor has been developed for space nuclear power systems modeling. The model is based on the Component Test Power Convertor (CTPC), a 12.5-kWe free-piston Stirling convertor. The model includes the fluid heat source, the Stirling convertor, output power, and heat rejection. The Stirling convertor model includes the Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass-spring damper systems, and the linear alternator. The model was validated against test data. Both nonlinear and linear versions of the model were developed. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models; one model of the Stirling cycle and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. Future possible uses of the Stirling system dynamic model are discussed. A pair of commercially available 1-kWe Stirling convertors is being purchased by NASA Glenn Research Center. The specifications of those convertors may eventually be incorporated into the dynamic model and analysis compared to the convertor test data. Subsequent potential testing could include integrating the convertors into a pumped liquid metal hot-end interface. This test would provide more data for comparison to the dynamic model analysis.

Examination of various turbulence models for application in liquid rocket thrust chambers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.

1991-01-01

There is a large variety of turbulence models available. These models include direct numerical simulation, large eddy simulation, Reynolds stress/flux model, zero equation model, one equation model, two equation k-epsilon model, multiple-scale model, etc. Each turbulence model contains different physical assumptions and requirements. The natures of turbulence are randomness, irregularity, diffusivity and dissipation. The capabilities of the turbulence models, including physical strength, weakness, limitations, as well as numerical and computational considerations, are reviewed. Recommendations are made for the potential application of a turbulence model in thrust chamber and performance prediction programs. The full Reynolds stress model is recommended. In a workshop, specifically called for the assessment of turbulence models for applications in liquid rocket thrust chambers, most of the experts present were also in favor of the recommendation of the Reynolds stress model.

Recent Updates to the System Advisor Model (SAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiOrio, Nicholas A

The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a mature suite of techno-economic models for many renewable energy technologies that can be downloaded for free as a desktop application or software development kit. SAM is used for system-level modeling, including generating performance pro the release of the code as an open source project on GitHub. Other additions that will be covered include the ability to download data directly into SAM from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and up- dates to a user-interface macro that assists with PV system sizing. A brief update on SAM's battery model and its integration with themore » detailed photovoltaic model will also be discussed. Finally, an outline of planned work for the next year will be presented, including the addition of a bifacial model, support for multiple MPPT inputs for detailed inverter modeling, and the addition of a model for inverter thermal behavior.« less

Leadership Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, Thomas J.

This paper discusses six different models of organizational structure and leadership, including the scalar chain or pyramid model, the continuum model, the grid model, the linking pin model, the contingency model, and the circle or democratic model. Each model is examined in a separate section that describes the model and its development, lists…

Mathematical circulatory system model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakin, William D. (Inventor); Stevens, Scott A. (Inventor)

2010-01-01

A system and method of modeling a circulatory system including a regulatory mechanism parameter. In one embodiment, a regulatory mechanism parameter in a lumped parameter model is represented as a logistic function. In another embodiment, the circulatory system model includes a compliant vessel, the model having a parameter representing a change in pressure due to contraction of smooth muscles of a wall of the vessel.

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include either exposure or emissions reduction, and a host of stakeholders, including residents, academics, NGOs, local and federal agencies. This presentation includes results from the C-PORT modeling system, and from a citizen science project from the local area. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

On a basic model of circulatory, fluid, and electrolyte regulation in the human system based upon the model of Guyton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, R. J.

1973-01-01

A detailed description of Guyton's model and modifications are provided. Also included are descriptions of several typical experiments which the model can simulate to illustrate the model's general utility. A discussion of the problems associated with the interfacing of the model to other models such as respiratory and thermal regulation models which is prime importance since these stimuli are not present in the current model is also included. A user's guide for the operation of the model on the Xerox Sigma 3 computer is provided and two programs are described. A verification plan and procedure for performing experiments is also presented.

Modeling vibration response and damping of cables and cabled structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spak, Kaitlin S.; Agnes, Gregory S.; Inman, Daniel J.

2015-02-01

In an effort to model the vibration response of cabled structures, the distributed transfer function method is developed to model cables and a simple cabled structure. The model includes shear effects, tension, and hysteretic damping for modeling of helical stranded cables, and includes a method for modeling cable attachment points using both linear and rotational damping and stiffness. The damped cable model shows agreement with experimental data for four types of stranded cables, and the damped cabled beam model shows agreement with experimental data for the cables attached to a beam structure, as well as improvement over the distributed mass method for cabled structure modeling.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Theoretical models for application in school health education research.

PubMed

Parcel, G S

1984-01-01

Theoretical models that may be useful to research studies in school health education are reviewed. Selected, well-defined theories include social learning theory, problem-behavior theory, theory of reasoned action, communications theory, coping theory, social competence, and social and family theories. Also reviewed are multiple theory models including models of health related-behavior, the PRECEDE Framework, social-psychological approaches and the Activated Health Education Model. Two major reviews of teaching models are also discussed. The paper concludes with a brief outline of the general applications of theory to the field of school health education including applications to basic research, development and design of interventions, program evaluation, and program utilization.

Investigating System Dependability Modeling Using AADL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Brendan; Driscoll, Kevin R.; Madl, Gabor

2013-01-01

This report describes Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL) models for a diverse set of fault-tolerant, embedded data networks and describes the methods and tools used to created these models. It also includes error models per the AADL Error Annex. Some networks were modeled using Error Detection Isolation Containment Types (EDICT). This report gives a brief description for each of the networks, a description of its modeling, the model itself, and evaluations of the tools used for creating the models. The methodology includes a naming convention that supports a systematic way to enumerate all of the potential failure modes.

A gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential is a better fit for gastric emptying data from mice

PubMed Central

Bajzer, Željko; Gibbons, Simon J.; Coleman, Heidi D.; Linden, David R.

2015-01-01

Noninvasive breath tests for gastric emptying are important techniques for understanding the changes in gastric motility that occur in disease or in response to drugs. Mice are often used as an animal model; however, the gamma variate model currently used for data analysis does not always fit the data appropriately. The aim of this study was to determine appropriate mathematical models to better fit mouse gastric emptying data including when two peaks are present in the gastric emptying curve. We fitted 175 gastric emptying data sets with two standard models (gamma variate and power exponential), with a gamma variate model that includes stretched exponential and with a proposed two-component model. The appropriateness of the fit was assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion. We found that extension of the gamma variate model to include a stretched exponential improves the fit, which allows for a better estimation of T1/2 and Tlag. When two distinct peaks in gastric emptying are present, a two-component model is required for the most appropriate fit. We conclude that use of a stretched exponential gamma variate model and when appropriate a two-component model will result in a better estimate of physiologically relevant parameters when analyzing mouse gastric emptying data. PMID:26045615

Unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, I.J.; Chandler, R.B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientic questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mecha- nisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unied modeling in- terface. The R package unmarked provides such a unied modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model tting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

The Missing Stakeholder Group: Why Patients Should be Involved in Health Economic Modelling.

PubMed

van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Hamerlijnck, Dominique; Ramos, Isaac Corro; Teunissen, Geertruida J; Al, Maiwenn; Feenstra, Talitha L

2016-04-01

Evaluations of healthcare interventions, e.g. new drugs or other new treatment strategies, commonly include a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) that is based on the application of health economic (HE) models. As end users, patients are important stakeholders regarding the outcomes of CEAs, yet their knowledge of HE model development and application, or their involvement therein, is absent. This paper considers possible benefits and risks of patient involvement in HE model development and application for modellers and patients. An exploratory review of the literature has been performed on stakeholder-involved modelling in various disciplines. In addition, Dutch patient experts have been interviewed about their experience in, and opinion about, the application of HE models. Patients have little to no knowledge of HE models and are seldom involved in HE model development and application. Benefits of becoming involved would include a greater understanding and possible acceptance by patients of HE model application, improved model validation, and a more direct infusion of patient expertise. Risks would include patient bias and increased costs of modelling. Patient involvement in HE modelling seems to carry several benefits as well as risks. We claim that the benefits may outweigh the risks and that patients should become involved.

Model selection for logistic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duller, Christine

2012-09-01

Model selection for logistic regression models decides which of some given potential regressors have an effect and hence should be included in the final model. The second interesting question is whether a certain factor is heterogeneous among some subsets, i.e. whether the model should include a random intercept or not. In this paper these questions will be answered with classical as well as with Bayesian methods. The application show some results of recent research projects in medicine and business administration.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In late 2016 or early 2017, CMAQ version 5.2 will be released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important updates from the current CMAQv5.1 modeling system, along with several instrumented versions of the model (e.g. decoupled direct method and sulfur tracking). Some specific model updates include the implementation of a new wind-blown dust treatment in CMAQv5.2, a significant improvement over the treatment in v5.1 which can severely overestimate wind-blown dust under certain conditions. Several other major updates to the modeling system include an update to the calculation of aerosols; implementation of full halogen chemistry (CMAQv5.1 contains a partial implementation of halogen chemistry); the new carbon bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism; updates to cloud model in CMAQ; and a new lightning assimilation scheme for the WRF model which significant improves the placement and timing of convective precipitation in the WRF precipitation fields. Numerous other updates to the modeling system will also be available in v5.2.

A "Kane's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System. Part 3; Addition of Umbilicals to the Nonlinear Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rupert, J. K.; Hampton, R. D.; Beech, G. S.

2005-01-01

In the late 1980s, microgravity researchers began to voice their concern that umbilical-transmitted energy could significantly degrade the acceleration environment of microgravity space science experiments onboard manned spacecraft. Since umbilicals are necessary for many experiments, control designers began to seek ways to compensate for these "indirect" disturbances. Hampton, et al., used the Kane s method to develop a model of the active rack isolation system (ARIS) that includes (1) actuator control forces, (2) direct disturbance forces, and (3) indirect, actuator-transmitted disturbances. Their model does not, however, include the indirect, umbilical-transmitted disturbances. Since the umbilical stiffnesses are not negligible, these indirect disturbances must be included in the model. Until the umbilicals have been appropriately included, the model will be incomplete. This Technical Memorandum presents a nonlinear model of ARIS with umbilicals included. Model verification was achieved by utilizing two commercial-off-the-shelf software tools. Various forces and moments were applied to the model to yield simulated responses of the system. Plots of the simulation results show how various critical points on an ARIS-outfitted international standard payload rack behave under the application of direct disturbances, indirect disturbances, and control forces. Simulations also show system response to a variety of initial conditions.

The Planetary Data System Information Model for Geometry Metadata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guinness, E. A.; Gordon, M. K.

2014-12-01

The NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) has recently developed a new set of archiving standards based on a rigorously defined information model. An important part of the new PDS information model is the model for geometry metadata, which includes, for example, attributes of the lighting and viewing angles of observations, position and velocity vectors of a spacecraft relative to Sun and observing body at the time of observation and the location and orientation of an observation on the target. The PDS geometry model is based on requirements gathered from the planetary research community, data producers, and software engineers who build search tools. A key requirement for the model is that it fully supports the breadth of PDS archives that include a wide range of data types from missions and instruments observing many types of solar system bodies such as planets, ring systems, and smaller bodies (moons, comets, and asteroids). Thus, important design aspects of the geometry model are that it standardizes the definition of the geometry attributes and provides consistency of geometry metadata across planetary science disciplines. The model specification also includes parameters so that the context of values can be unambiguously interpreted. For example, the reference frame used for specifying geographic locations on a planetary body is explicitly included with the other geometry metadata parameters. The structure and content of the new PDS geometry model is designed to enable both science analysis and efficient development of search tools. The geometry model is implemented in XML, as is the main PDS information model, and uses XML schema for validation. The initial version of the geometry model is focused on geometry for remote sensing observations conducted by flyby and orbiting spacecraft. Future releases of the PDS geometry model will be expanded to include metadata for landed and rover spacecraft.

42 CFR § 512.730 - Compliance enforcement for FFS-CR participants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS EPISODE PAYMENT MODEL CR Incentive Payment Model for EPM and Medicare Fee-for-Service Participants Provisions for Ffs-Cr... through monitoring by HHS (including CMS and OIG) of the CR incentive payment model, including but not...

Coupling large scale hydrologic-reservoir-hydraulic models for impact studies in data sparse regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Neal, Jeff; Wagener, Thorsten; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Woods, Ross; Pianosi, Francesca; Sheffied, Justin

2017-04-01

As hydraulic modelling moves to increasingly large spatial domains it has become essential to take reservoirs and their operations into account. Large-scale hydrological models have been including reservoirs for at least the past two decades, yet they cannot explicitly model the variations in spatial extent of reservoirs, and many reservoirs operations in hydrological models are not undertaken during the run-time operation. This requires a hydraulic model, yet to-date no continental scale hydraulic model has directly simulated reservoirs and their operations. In addition to the need to include reservoirs and their operations in hydraulic models as they move to global coverage, there is also a need to link such models to large scale hydrology models or land surface schemes. This is especially true for Africa where the number of river gauges has consistently declined since the middle of the twentieth century. In this study we address these two major issues by developing: 1) a coupling methodology for the VIC large-scale hydrological model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model, and 2) a reservoir module for the LISFLOOD-FP model, which currently includes four sets of reservoir operating rules taken from the major large-scale hydrological models. The Volta Basin, West Africa, was chosen to demonstrate the capability of the modelling framework as it is a large river basin ( 400,000 km2) and contains the largest man-made lake in terms of area (8,482 km2), Lake Volta, created by the Akosombo dam. Lake Volta also experiences a seasonal variation in water levels of between two and six metres that creates a dynamic shoreline. In this study, we first run our coupled VIC and LISFLOOD-FP model without explicitly modelling Lake Volta and then compare these results with those from model runs where the dam operations and Lake Volta are included. The results show that we are able to obtain variation in the Lake Volta water levels and that including the dam operations and Lake Volta has significant impacts on the water levels across the domain.

ForCent model development and testing using the Enriched Background Isotope Study experiment

Treesearch

William J. Parton; Paul J. Hanson; Chris Swanston; Margaret Torn; Susan E. Trumbore; William Riley; Robin Kelly

2010-01-01

The ForCent forest ecosystem model was developed by making major revisions to the DayCent model including: (1) adding a humus organic pool, (2) incorporating a detailed root growth model, and (3) including plant phenological growth patterns. Observed plant production and soil respiration data from 1993 to 2000 were used to demonstrate that the ForCent model could...

The Benefits of Including Clinical Factors in Rectal Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling After Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Defraene, Gilles, E-mail: gilles.defraene@uzleuven.be; Van den Bergh, Laura; Al-Mamgani, Abrahim

2012-03-01

Purpose: To study the impact of clinical predisposing factors on rectal normal tissue complication probability modeling using the updated results of the Dutch prostate dose-escalation trial. Methods and Materials: Toxicity data of 512 patients (conformally treated to 68 Gy [n = 284] and 78 Gy [n = 228]) with complete follow-up at 3 years after radiotherapy were studied. Scored end points were rectal bleeding, high stool frequency, and fecal incontinence. Two traditional dose-based models (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and Relative Seriality (RS) and a logistic model were fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. Furthermore, these model fits were improved by including themore » most significant clinical factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminating ability of all fits. Results: Including clinical factors significantly increased the predictive power of the models for all end points. In the optimal LKB, RS, and logistic models for rectal bleeding and fecal incontinence, the first significant (p = 0.011-0.013) clinical factor was 'previous abdominal surgery.' As second significant (p = 0.012-0.016) factor, 'cardiac history' was included in all three rectal bleeding fits, whereas including 'diabetes' was significant (p = 0.039-0.048) in fecal incontinence modeling but only in the LKB and logistic models. High stool frequency fits only benefitted significantly (p = 0.003-0.006) from the inclusion of the baseline toxicity score. For all models rectal bleeding fits had the highest AUC (0.77) where it was 0.63 and 0.68 for high stool frequency and fecal incontinence, respectively. LKB and logistic model fits resulted in similar values for the volume parameter. The steepness parameter was somewhat higher in the logistic model, also resulting in a slightly lower D{sub 50}. Anal wall DVHs were used for fecal incontinence, whereas anorectal wall dose best described the other two endpoints. Conclusions: Comparable prediction models were obtained with LKB, RS, and logistic NTCP models. Including clinical factors improved the predictive power of all models significantly.« less

Models of clinical reasoning with a focus on general practice: A critical review.

PubMed

Yazdani, Shahram; Hosseinzadeh, Mohammad; Hosseini, Fakhrolsadat

2017-10-01

Diagnosis lies at the heart of general practice. Every day general practitioners (GPs) visit patients with a wide variety of complaints and concerns, with often minor but sometimes serious symptoms. General practice has many features which differentiate it from specialty care setting, but during the last four decades little attention was paid to clinical reasoning in general practice. Therefore, we aimed to critically review the clinical reasoning models with a focus on the clinical reasoning in general practice or clinical reasoning of general practitioners to find out to what extent the existing models explain the clinical reasoning specially in primary care and also identity the gaps of the model for use in primary care settings. A systematic search to find models of clinical reasoning were performed. To have more precision, we excluded the studies that focused on neurobiological aspects of reasoning, reasoning in disciplines other than medicine decision making or decision analysis on treatment or management plan. All the articles and documents were first scanned to see whether they include important relevant contents or any models. The selected studies which described a model of clinical reasoning in general practitioners or with a focus on general practice were then reviewed and appraisal or critics of other authors on these models were included. The reviewed documents on the model were synthesized. Six models of clinical reasoning were identified including hypothetic-deductive model, pattern recognition, a dual process diagnostic reasoning model, pathway for clinical reasoning, an integrative model of clinical reasoning, and model of diagnostic reasoning strategies in primary care. Only one model had specifically focused on general practitioners reasoning. A Model of clinical reasoning that included specific features of general practice to better help the general practitioners with the difficulties of clinical reasoning in this setting is needed.

A "Kane's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupert, J. K.; Hampton, R. D.; Beech, G. S.

2005-02-01

In the late 1980s, microgravity researchers began to voice their concern that umbilical-transmitted energy could significantly degrade the acceleration environment of microgravity space science experiments onboard manned spacecraft. Since umbilicals are necessary for many experiments, control designers began to seek ways to compensate for these "indirect" disturbances. Hampton, et al., used the Kane s method to develop a model of the active rack isolation system (ARIS) that includes (1) actuator control forces, (2) direct disturbance forces, and (3) indirect, actuator-transmitted disturbances. Their model does not, however, include the indirect, umbilical-transmitted disturbances. Since the umbilical stiffnesses are not negligible, these indirect disturbances must be included in the model. Until the umbilicals have been appropriately included, the model will be incomplete. This Technical Memorandum presents a nonlinear model of ARIS with umbilicals included. Model verification was achieved by utilizing two commercial-off-the-shelf software tools. Various forces and moments were applied to the model to yield simulated responses of the system. Plots of the simulation results show how various critical points on an ARIS-outfitted international standard payload rack behave under the application of direct disturbances, indirect disturbances, and control forces. Simulations also show system response to a variety of initial conditions.

Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

PubMed

Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Liquid Fuel Spray Models for Hybrid RANS/LES and DLES Prediction of Turbulent Reactive Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afshar, Ali

An evaluation of Lagrangian-based, discrete-phase models for multi-component liquid sprays encountered in the combustors of gas turbine engines is considered. In particular, the spray modeling capabilities of the commercial software, ANSYS Fluent, was evaluated. Spray modeling was performed for various cold flow validation cases. These validation cases include a liquid jet in a cross-flow, an airblast atomizer, and a high shear fuel nozzle. Droplet properties including velocity and diameter were investigated and compared with previous experimental and numerical results. Different primary and secondary breakup models were evaluated in this thesis. The secondary breakup models investigated include the Taylor analogy breakup (TAB) model, the wave model, the Kelvin-Helmholtz Rayleigh-Taylor model (KHRT), and the Stochastic secondary droplet (SSD) approach. The modeling of fuel sprays requires a proper treatment for the turbulence. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), large eddy simulation (LES), hybrid RANS/LES, and dynamic LES (DLES) were also considered for the turbulent flows involving sprays. The spray and turbulence models were evaluated using the available benchmark experimental data.

In praise of mechanistically-rich models

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.; Canham, Charles D.; Cole, Jonathan J.; Lauenroth, William K.

2003-01-01

The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Some practical turbulence modeling options for Reynolds-averaged full Navier-Stokes calculations of three-dimensional flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bui, Trong T.

1993-01-01

New turbulence modeling options recently implemented for the 3-D version of Proteus, a Reynolds-averaged compressible Navier-Stokes code, are described. The implemented turbulence models include: the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model, the Baldwin-Barth one-equation model, the Chien k-epsilon model, and the Launder-Sharma k-epsilon model. Features of this turbulence modeling package include: well documented and easy to use turbulence modeling options, uniform integration of turbulence models from different classes, automatic initialization of turbulence variables for calculations using one- or two-equation turbulence models, multiple solid boundaries treatment, and fully vectorized L-U solver for one- and two-equation models. Validation test cases include the incompressible and compressible flat plate turbulent boundary layers, turbulent developing S-duct flow, and glancing shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interaction. Good agreement is obtained between the computational results and experimental data. Sensitivity of the compressible turbulent solutions with the method of y(sup +) computation, the turbulent length scale correction, and some compressibility corrections are examined in detail. The test cases show that the highly optimized one-and two-equation turbulence models can be used in routine 3-D Navier-Stokes computations with no significant increase in CPU time as compared with the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model.

EMPIRE and pyenda: Two ensemble-based data assimilation systems written in Fortran and Python

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geppert, Gernot; Browne, Phil; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Merker, Claire

2017-04-01

We present and compare the features of two ensemble-based data assimilation frameworks, EMPIRE and pyenda. Both frameworks allow to couple models to the assimilation codes using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), leading to extremely efficient and fast coupling between models and the data-assimilation codes. The Fortran-based system EMPIRE (Employing Message Passing Interface for Researching Ensembles) is optimized for parallel, high-performance computing. It currently includes a suite of data assimilation algorithms including variants of the ensemble Kalman and several the particle filters. EMPIRE is targeted at models of all kinds of complexity and has been coupled to several geoscience models, eg. the Lorenz-63 model, a barotropic vorticity model, the general circulation model HadCM3, the ocean model NEMO, and the land-surface model JULES. The Python-based system pyenda (Python Ensemble Data Assimilation) allows Fortran- and Python-based models to be used for data assimilation. Models can be coupled either using MPI or by using a Python interface. Using Python allows quick prototyping and pyenda is aimed at small to medium scale models. pyenda currently includes variants of the ensemble Kalman filter and has been coupled to the Lorenz-63 model, an advection-based precipitation nowcasting scheme, and the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH.

Computer modeling of human decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

LADAR Range Image Interpolation Exploiting Pulse Width Expansion

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

normal to each other. The LADAR model needs to include the complete BRDF model covered in Section 2.1.3, which includes speckle reflection as well as...the gradient of a surface. This study estimates the gradi- ent of the surface of an object from a modeled LADAR return pulse that includes accurate...probabilistic noise models . The range and surface gradient estimations are incorporated into a novel interpolator that facilitates an effective three

Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

2014-07-01

Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

Graph modeling systems and methods

DOEpatents

Neergaard, Mike

2015-10-13

An apparatus and a method for vulnerability and reliability modeling are provided. The method generally includes constructing a graph model of a physical network using a computer, the graph model including a plurality of terminating vertices to represent nodes in the physical network, a plurality of edges to represent transmission paths in the physical network, and a non-terminating vertex to represent a non-nodal vulnerability along a transmission path in the physical network. The method additionally includes evaluating the vulnerability and reliability of the physical network using the constructed graph model, wherein the vulnerability and reliability evaluation includes a determination of whether each terminating and non-terminating vertex represents a critical point of failure. The method can be utilized to evaluate wide variety of networks, including power grid infrastructures, communication network topologies, and fluid distribution systems.

Natural analogs in the petroleum industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, J.R.

1995-09-01

This article describes the use of natural analogues in petroleum exploration and includes numerous geologic model descriptions which have historically been used in the prediction of geometries and location of oil and gas accumulations. These geologic models have been passed down to and used by succeeding generations of petroleum geologists. Some examples of these geologic models include the Allan fault-plane model, porosity prediction, basin modelling, prediction of basin compartmentalization, and diagenesis.

Development of a Linear Stirling Model with Varying Heat Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2007-01-01

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC s non-linear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Development of a Linear Stirling System Model with Varying Heat Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2007-01-01

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC's nonlinear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Assessing College Students' Understanding of Acid Base Chemistry Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wan, Yanjun Jean

2014-01-01

Typically most college curricula include three acid base models: Arrhenius', Bronsted-Lowry's, and Lewis'. Although Lewis' acid base model is generally thought to be the most sophisticated among these three models, and can be further applied in reaction mechanisms, most general chemistry curricula either do not include Lewis' acid base model, or…

Further Studies into Synthetic Image Generation using CameoSim

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

preparation of the validation effort a study of BRDF models has been completed, which includes the physical plausibility of models , how measured data...the visible to shortwave infrared. In preparation of the validation effort a study of BRDF models has been completed, which includes the physical...Example..................................................................................................................... 17 4. MODELLING BRDFS

A hierarchy for modeling high speed propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T.; Deabreu, Alex

1991-01-01

General research efforts on reduced order propulsion models for control systems design are overviewed. Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems are discussed including internal flow propulsion systems that do not contain rotating machinery, such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. The discussion is separated into four areas: (1) computational fluid dynamics models for the entire nonlinear system or high order nonlinear models; (2) high order linearized models derived from fundamental physics; (3) low order linear models obtained from the other high order models; and (4) low order nonlinear models (order here refers to the number of dynamic states). Included in the discussion are any special considerations based on the relevant control system designs. The methods discussed are for the quasi-one-dimensional Euler equations of gasdynamic flow. The essential nonlinear features represented are large amplitude nonlinear waves, including moving normal shocks, hammershocks, simple subsonic combustion via heat addition, temperature dependent gases, detonations, and thermal choking. The report also contains a comprehensive list of papers and theses generated by this grant.

Users guide for the hydroacoustic coverage assessment model (HydroCAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, T., LLNL

1997-12-01

A model for predicting the detection and localization performance of hydroacoustic monitoring networks has been developed. The model accounts for major factors affecting global-scale acoustic propagation in the ocean. including horizontal refraction, travel time variability due to spatial and temporal fluctuations in the ocean, and detailed characteristics of the source. Graphical user interfaces are provided to setup the models and visualize the results. The model produces maps of network detection coverage and localization area of uncertainty, as well as intermediate results such as predicted path amplitudes, travel time and travel time variance. This Users Guide for the model is organizedmore » into three sections. First a summary of functionality available in the model is presented, including example output products. The second section provides detailed descriptions of each of models contained in the system. The last section describes how to run the model, including a summary of each data input form in the user interface.« less

The Use of Modeling-Based Text to Improve Students' Modeling Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jong, Jing-Ping; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Chung, Shiao-Lan

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of a modeling-based text on 10th graders' modeling competencies. Fifteen 10th graders read a researcher-developed modeling-based science text on the ideal gas law that included explicit descriptions and representations of modeling processes (i.e., model selection, model construction, model validation, model…

NASA AVOSS Fast-Time Models for Aircraft Wake Prediction: User's Guide (APA3.8 and TDP2.1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at N.; VanValkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Matthew J.; Limon Duparcmeur, Fanny M.

2016-01-01

NASA's current distribution of fast-time wake vortex decay and transport models includes APA (Version 3.8) and TDP (Version 2.1). This User's Guide provides detailed information on the model inputs, file formats, and model outputs. A brief description of the Memphis 1995, Dallas/Fort Worth 1997, and the Denver 2003 wake vortex datasets is given along with the evaluation of models. A detailed bibliography is provided which includes publications on model development, wake field experiment descriptions, and applications of the fast-time wake vortex models.

A Generalized Radiation Model for Human Mobility: Spatial Scale, Searching Direction and Trip Constraint.

PubMed

Kang, Chaogui; Liu, Yu; Guo, Diansheng; Qin, Kun

2015-01-01

We generalized the recently introduced "radiation model", as an analog to the generalization of the classic "gravity model", to consolidate its nature of universality for modeling diverse mobility systems. By imposing the appropriate scaling exponent λ, normalization factor κ and system constraints including searching direction and trip OD constraint, the generalized radiation model accurately captures real human movements in various scenarios and spatial scales, including two different countries and four different cities. Our analytical results also indicated that the generalized radiation model outperformed alternative mobility models in various empirical analyses.

Phase 1 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS): Model Output Data (2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B. E.; Zaehle, S.; Asao, S.; Dietze, M.; El-Masri, B.; Hanson, P. J.; Hickler, T.; Jain, A.; Luo, Y.; Parton, W. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y -P; Warlind, D.; Weng, E.; Oren, R.; Norby, R. J.

2015-01-01

These datasets comprise the model output from phase 1 of the FACE-MDS. These include simulations of the Duke and Oak Ridge experiments and also idealised long-term (300 year) simulations at both sites (please see the modelling protocol for details). Included as part of this dataset are modelling and output protocols. The model datasets are formatted according to the output protocols. Phase 1 datasets are reproduced here for posterity and reproducibility although the model output for the experimental period have been somewhat superseded by the Phase 2 datasets.

Reliability model generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Gerald C. (Inventor); McMann, Catherine M. (Inventor)

1991-01-01

An improved method and system for automatically generating reliability models for use with a reliability evaluation tool is described. The reliability model generator of the present invention includes means for storing a plurality of low level reliability models which represent the reliability characteristics for low level system components. In addition, the present invention includes means for defining the interconnection of the low level reliability models via a system architecture description. In accordance with the principles of the present invention, a reliability model for the entire system is automatically generated by aggregating the low level reliability models based on the system architecture description.

Generalized Beer-Lambert model for near-infrared light propagation in thick biological tissues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Manish; Ayyalasomayajula, Kalyan R.; Yalavarthy, Phaneendra K.

2016-07-01

The attenuation of near-infrared (NIR) light intensity as it propagates in a turbid medium like biological tissue is described by modified the Beer-Lambert law (MBLL). The MBLL is generally used to quantify the changes in tissue chromophore concentrations for NIR spectroscopic data analysis. Even though MBLL is effective in terms of providing qualitative comparison, it suffers from its applicability across tissue types and tissue dimensions. In this work, we introduce Lambert-W function-based modeling for light propagation in biological tissues, which is a generalized version of the Beer-Lambert model. The proposed modeling provides parametrization of tissue properties, which includes two attenuation coefficients μ0 and η. We validated our model against the Monte Carlo simulation, which is the gold standard for modeling NIR light propagation in biological tissue. We included numerous human and animal tissues to validate the proposed empirical model, including an inhomogeneous adult human head model. The proposed model, which has a closed form (analytical), is first of its kind in providing accurate modeling of NIR light propagation in biological tissues.

NASA Iced Aerodynamics and Controls Current Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Addy, Gene

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the state of current research in the area of aerodynamics and aircraft control with ice conditions by the Aviation Safety Program, part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls Project (IRAC). Included in the presentation is a overview of the modeling efforts. The objective of the modeling is to develop experimental and computational methods to model and predict aircraft response during adverse flight conditions, including icing. The Aircraft icing modeling efforts includes the Ice-Contaminated Aerodynamics Modeling, which examines the effects of ice contamination on aircraft aerodynamics, and CFD modeling of ice-contaminated aircraft aerodynamics, and Advanced Ice Accretion Process Modeling which examines the physics of ice accretion, and works on computational modeling of ice accretions. The IRAC testbed, a Generic Transport Model (GTM) and its use in the investigation of the effects of icing on its aerodynamics is also reviewed. This has led to a more thorough understanding and models, both theoretical and empirical of icing physics and ice accretion for airframes, advanced 3D ice accretion prediction codes, CFD methods for iced aerodynamics and better understanding of aircraft iced aerodynamics and its effects on control surface effectiveness.

Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-15

cycle under volcanically clean aerosol conditions. Those models that do not reproduce a quasi- biennial oscillation ( QBO ) also include a relaxation...forc- ing toward the observed QBO (Giorgetta and Bengtsson 1999) for the SCN2 simulations. Table 2 summarizes the simulations used in this study and any...However simulations from three of the models included a future solar forcing and two models included an artificial QBO forcing in the tropics (see

Turbulent reacting flow computations including turbulence-chemistry interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narayan, J. R.; Girimaji, S. S.

1992-01-01

A two-equation (k-epsilon) turbulence model has been extended to be applicable for compressible reacting flows. A compressibility correction model based on modeling the dilatational terms in the Reynolds stress equations has been used. A turbulence-chemistry interaction model is outlined. In this model, the effects of temperature and species mass concentrations fluctuations on the species mass production rates are decoupled. The effect of temperature fluctuations is modeled via a moment model, and the effect of concentration fluctuations is included using an assumed beta-pdf model. Preliminary results obtained using this model are presented. A two-dimensional reacting mixing layer has been used as a test case. Computations are carried out using the Navier-Stokes solver SPARK using a finite rate chemistry model for hydrogen-air combustion.

Engine System Model Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Karl W.; Simpson, Steven P.

2006-01-01

In order to design, analyze, and evaluate conceptual Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine systems, an improved NTP design and analysis tool has been developed. The NTP tool utilizes the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) system tool and many of the routines from the Enabler reactor model found in Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Improved non-nuclear component models and an external shield model were added to the tool. With the addition of a nearly complete system reliability model, the tool will provide performance, sizing, and reliability data for NERVA-Derived NTP engine systems. A new detailed reactor model is also being developed and will replace Enabler. The new model will allow more flexibility in reactor geometry and include detailed thermal hydraulics and neutronics models. A description of the reactor, component, and reliability models is provided. Another key feature of the modeling process is the use of comprehensive spreadsheets for each engine case. The spreadsheets include individual worksheets for each subsystem with data, plots, and scaled figures, making the output very useful to each engineering discipline. Sample performance and sizing results with the Enabler reactor model are provided including sensitivities. Before selecting an engine design, all figures of merit must be considered including the overall impacts on the vehicle and mission. Evaluations based on key figures of merit of these results and results with the new reactor model will be performed. The impacts of clustering and external shielding will also be addressed. Over time, the reactor model will be upgraded to design and analyze other NTP concepts with CERMET and carbide fuel cores.

nmsBuilder: Freeware to create subject-specific musculoskeletal models for OpenSim.

PubMed

Valente, Giordano; Crimi, Gianluigi; Vanella, Nicola; Schileo, Enrico; Taddei, Fulvia

2017-12-01

Musculoskeletal modeling and simulations of movement have been increasingly used in orthopedic and neurological scenarios, with increased attention to subject-specific applications. In general, musculoskeletal modeling applications have been facilitated by the development of dedicated software tools; however, subject-specific studies have been limited also by time-consuming modeling workflows and high skilled expertise required. In addition, no reference tools exist to standardize the process of musculoskeletal model creation and make it more efficient. Here we present a freely available software application, nmsBuilder 2.0, to create musculoskeletal models in the file format of OpenSim, a widely-used open-source platform for musculoskeletal modeling and simulation. nmsBuilder 2.0 is the result of a major refactoring of a previous implementation that moved a first step toward an efficient workflow for subject-specific model creation. nmsBuilder includes a graphical user interface that provides access to all functionalities, based on a framework for computer-aided medicine written in C++. The operations implemented can be used in a workflow to create OpenSim musculoskeletal models from 3D surfaces. A first step includes data processing to create supporting objects necessary to create models, e.g. surfaces, anatomical landmarks, reference systems; and a second step includes the creation of OpenSim objects, e.g. bodies, joints, muscles, and the corresponding model. We present a case study using nmsBuilder 2.0: the creation of an MRI-based musculoskeletal model of the lower limb. The model included four rigid bodies, five degrees of freedom and 43 musculotendon actuators, and was created from 3D surfaces of the segmented images of a healthy subject through the modeling workflow implemented in the software application. We have presented nmsBuilder 2.0 for the creation of musculoskeletal OpenSim models from image-based data, and made it freely available via nmsbuilder.org. This application provides an efficient workflow for model creation and helps standardize the process. We hope this would help promote personalized applications in musculoskeletal biomechanics, including larger sample size studies, and might also represent a basis for future developments for specific applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses to understand differences in process-based snow models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Martyn; Essery, Richard

2017-04-01

When faced with the complex and interdisciplinary challenge of building process-based land models, different modelers make different decisions at different points in the model development process. These modeling decisions are generally based on several considerations, including fidelity (e.g., what approaches faithfully simulate observed processes), complexity (e.g., which processes should be represented explicitly), practicality (e.g., what is the computational cost of the model simulations; are there sufficient resources to implement the desired modeling concepts), and data availability (e.g., is there sufficient data to force and evaluate models). Consequently the research community, comprising modelers of diverse background, experience, and modeling philosophy, has amassed a wide range of models, which differ in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the different models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than on a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will summarize the use of "multiple-hypothesis" modeling frameworks to understand differences in process-based snow models. Multiple-hypothesis frameworks define a master modeling template, and include a a wide variety of process parameterizations and spatial configurations that are used in existing models. Such frameworks provide the capability to decompose complex models into the individual decisions that are made as part of model development, and evaluate each decision in isolation. It is hence possible to attribute differences in system-scale model predictions to individual modeling decisions, providing scope to mimic the behavior of existing models, understand why models differ, characterize model uncertainty, and identify productive pathways to model improvement. Results will be presented applying multiple hypothesis frameworks to snow model comparison projects, including PILPS, SnowMIP, and the upcoming ESM-SnowMIP project.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

NASA AVOSS Fast-Time Wake Prediction Models: User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at N.; VanValkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Matthew

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing and testing fast-time wake transport and decay models to safely enhance the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS). The fast-time wake models are empirical algorithms used for real-time predictions of wake transport and decay based on aircraft parameters and ambient weather conditions. The aircraft dependent parameters include the initial vortex descent velocity and the vortex pair separation distance. The atmospheric initial conditions include vertical profiles of temperature or potential temperature, eddy dissipation rate, and crosswind. The current distribution includes the latest versions of the APA (3.4) and the TDP (2.1) models. This User's Guide provides detailed information on the model inputs, file formats, and the model output. An example of a model run and a brief description of the Memphis 1995 Wake Vortex Dataset is also provided.

Outside users payload model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The outside users payload model which is a continuation of documents and replaces and supersedes the July 1984 edition is presented. The time period covered by this model is 1985 through 2000. The following sections are included: (1) definition of the scope of the model; (2) discussion of the methodology used; (3) overview of total demand; (4) summary of the estimated market segmentation by launch vehicle; (5) summary of the estimated market segmentation by user type; (6) details of the STS market forecast; (7) summary of transponder trends; (8) model overview by mission category; and (9) detailed mission models. All known non-NASA, non-DOD reimbursable payloads forecast to be flown by non-Soviet-block countries are included in this model with the exception of Spacelab payloads and small self contained payloads. Certain DOD-sponsored or cosponsored payloads are included if they are reimbursable launches.

76 FR 6523 - Airworthiness Directives; Dornier Luftfahrt GmbH Models Dornier 228-100, Dornier 228-101, Dornier...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... initiated a flight-test campaign including strain measurements as well as finite element modelling and... including strain measurements as well as finite element modelling and fatigue analyses to better understand..., the TC Holder also initiated a flight-test campaign including strain measurements as well as finite...

Importance of scale, land cover, and weather on the abundance of bird species in a managed forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grinde, Alexis R.; Hiemi, Gerald J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Panci, Hannah; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wolter, Peter

2017-01-01

Climate change and habitat loss are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. While public lands have the potential to increase regional resilience of bird populations to these threats, long-term data are necessary to document species responses to changes in climate and habitat to better understand population vulnerabilities. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine the importance of stand-level characteristics, multi-scale land cover, and annual weather factors to the abundance of 61 bird species over a 20-year time frame in Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, USA. Of the 61 species modeled, we were able to build final models with R-squared values that ranged from 26% to 69% for 37 species; the remaining 24 species models had issues with convergence or low explanatory power (R-squared < 20%). Models for the 37 species show that stand-level characteristics, land cover factors, and annual weather effects on species abundance were species-specific and varied within guilds. Forty-one percent of the final species models included stand-level characteristics, 92% included land cover variables at the 200 m scale, 51% included land cover variables at the 500 m scale, 46% included land cover variables at the 1000 m scale, and 38% included weather variables in best models. Three species models (8%) included significant weather and land cover interaction terms. Overall, models indicated that aboveground tree biomass and land cover variables drove changes in the majority of species. Of those species models including weather variables, more included annual variation in precipitation or drought than temperature. Annual weather variability was significantly more likely to impact abundance of species associated with deciduous forests and bird species that are considered climate sensitive. The long-term data and models we developed are particularly suited to informing science-based adaptive forest management plans that incorporate climate sensitivity, aim to conserve large areas of forest habitat, and maintain an historical mosaic of cover types for conserving a diverse and abundant avian assemblage.

Modeling radiation belt electron dynamics during GEM challenge intervals with the DREAM3D diffusion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, G. S.; Chen, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Camporeale, E.; Reeves, G. D.

2013-10-01

a response to the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) "Global Radiation Belt Modeling Challenge," a 3D diffusion model is used to simulate the radiation belt electron dynamics during two intervals of the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) mission, 15 August to 15 October 1990 and 1 February to 31 July 1991. The 3D diffusion model, developed as part of the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) project, includes radial, pitch angle, and momentum diffusion and mixed pitch angle-momentum diffusion, which are driven by dynamic wave databases from the statistical CRRES wave data, including plasmaspheric hiss, lower-band, and upper-band chorus. By comparing the DREAM3D model outputs to the CRRES electron phase space density (PSD) data, we find that, with a data-driven boundary condition at Lmax = 5.5, the electron enhancements can generally be explained by radial diffusion, though additional local heating from chorus waves is required. Because the PSD reductions are included in the boundary condition at Lmax = 5.5, our model captures the fast electron dropouts over a large L range, producing better model performance compared to previous published results. Plasmaspheric hiss produces electron losses inside the plasmasphere, but the model still sometimes overestimates the PSD there. Test simulations using reduced radial diffusion coefficients or increased pitch angle diffusion coefficients inside the plasmasphere suggest that better wave models and more realistic radial diffusion coefficients, both inside and outside the plasmasphere, are needed to improve the model performance. Statistically, the results show that, with the data-driven outer boundary condition, including radial diffusion and plasmaspheric hiss is sufficient to model the electrons during geomagnetically quiet times, but to best capture the radiation belt variations during active times, pitch angle and momentum diffusion from chorus waves are required.

Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim

2016-12-01

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches allow a broader and more extensive consideration of objectives than is typically possible with conventional single-species approaches. Ecosystem linkages may include trophic interactions and climate change effects on productivity for the relevant species within the system. Presently, models are evolving to include a comprehensive set of fishery and ecosystem information to address these broader management considerations. The increased scope of EBFM approaches is accompanied with a greater number of plausible models to describe the systems. This can lead to harvest recommendations and biological reference points that differ considerably among models. Model selection for projections (and specific catch recommendations) often occurs through a process that tends to adopt familiar, often simpler, models without considering those that incorporate more complex ecosystem information. Multi-model inference provides a framework that resolves this dilemma by providing a means of including information from alternative, often divergent models to inform biological reference points and possible catch consequences. We apply an example of this approach to data for three species of groundfish in the Bering Sea: walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder using three models: 1) an age-structured "conventional" single-species model, 2) an age-structured single-species model with temperature-specific weight at age, and 3) a temperature-specific multi-species stock assessment model. The latter two approaches also include consideration of alternative future climate scenarios, adding another dimension to evaluate model projection uncertainty. We show how Bayesian model-averaging methods can be used to incorporate such trophic and climate information to broaden single-species stock assessments by using an EBFM approach that may better characterize uncertainty.

Development and testing of meteorology and air dispersion models for Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M. D.; Brown, M. J.; Cruz, X.; Sosa, G.; Streit, G.

Los Alamos National Laboratory and Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo are completing a joint study of options for improving air quality in Mexico City. We have modified a three-dimensional, prognostic, higher-order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation (HOTMAC) and a Monte Carlo dispersion and transport model (RAPTAD) to treat domains that include an urbanized area. We used the meteorological model to drive models which describe the photochemistry and air transport and dispersion. The photochemistry modeling is described in a separate paper. We tested the model against routine measurements and those of a major field program. During the field program, measurements included: (1) lidar measurements of aerosol transport and dispersion, (2) aircraft measurements of winds, turbulence, and chemical species aloft, (3) aircraft measurements of skin temperatures, and (4) Tethersonde measurements of winds and ozone. We modified the meteorological model to include provisions for time-varying synoptic-scale winds, adjustments for local wind effects, and detailed surface-coverage descriptions. We developed a new method to define mixing-layer heights based on model outputs. The meteorology and dispersion models were able to provide reasonable representations of the measurements and to define the sources of some of the major uncertainties in the model-measurement comparisons.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 5.2 (CMAQv5.2), is currently being developed, with a planned release date in 2017. The new model includes numerous updates from the previous version of the model (CMAQv5.1). Specific updates include a new...

DIETARY EXPOSURES OF YOUNG CHILDREN, PART 3: MODELLING

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic model was used to model dietary exposure of young children. Parameters included pesticide residue on food before handling, surface pesticide loading, transfer efficiencies and children's activity patterns. Three components of dietary pesticide exposure were includ...

Graphical approach to assess the soil fertility evaluation model validity for rice (case study: southern area of Merapi Mountain, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julianto, E. A.; Suntoro, W. A.; Dewi, W. S.; Partoyo

2018-03-01

Climate change has been reported to exacerbate land resources degradation including soil fertility decline. The appropriate validity use on soil fertility evaluation could reduce the risk of climate change effect on plant cultivation. This study aims to assess the validity of a Soil Fertility Evaluation Model using a graphical approach. The models evaluated were the Indonesian Soil Research Center (PPT) version model, the FAO Unesco version model, and the Kyuma version model. Each model was then correlated with rice production (dry grain weight/GKP). The goodness of fit of each model can be tested to evaluate the quality and validity of a model, as well as the regression coefficient (R2). This research used the Eviews 9 programme by a graphical approach. The results obtained three curves, namely actual, fitted, and residual curves. If the actual and fitted curves are widely apart or irregular, this means that the quality of the model is not good, or there are many other factors that are still not included in the model (large residual) and conversely. Indeed, if the actual and fitted curves show exactly the same shape, it means that all factors have already been included in the model. Modification of the standard soil fertility evaluation models can improve the quality and validity of a model.

Forecast of long term coal supply and mining conditions: Model documentation and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A coal industry model was developed to support the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in its investigation of advanced underground coal extraction systems. The model documentation includes the programming for the coal mining cost models and an accompanying users' manual, and a guide to reading model output. The methodology used in assembling the transportation, demand, and coal reserve components of the model are also described. Results presented for 1986 and 2000, include projections of coal production patterns and marginal prices, differentiated by coal sulfur content.

An aircraft model for the AIAA controls design challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brumbaugh, Randal W.

1991-01-01

A generic, state-of-the-art, high-performance aircraft model, including detailed, full-envelope, nonlinear aerodynamics, and full-envelope thrust and first-order engine response data is described. While this model was primarily developed Controls Design Challenge, the availability of such a model provides a common focus for research in aeronautical control theory and methodology. An implementation of this model using the FORTRAN computer language, associated routines furnished with the aircraft model, and techniques for interfacing these routines to external procedures is also described. Figures showing vehicle geometry, surfaces, and sign conventions are included.

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Stevens, B. B.; Forster, P.; Collins, W.; Ramaswamy, V.

2014-12-01

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities: 1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models 2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models 3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model 4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results.

The Model Life-cycle: Training Module

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Life-Cycle includes identification of problems & the subsequent development, evaluation, & application of the model. Objectives: define ‘model life-cycle’, explore stages of model life-cycle, & strategies for development, evaluation, & applications.

Radiation Belt and Plasma Model Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: Radiation belt and plasma model environment. Environment hazards for systems and humans. Need for new models. How models are used. Model requirements. How can space weather community help?

Comprehensive model for the nucleus of Periodic Comet Tempel 2 and its activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Zdenek

1991-01-01

A comprehensive synergistic physical model for the nucleus of Periodic Comet Tempel 2 was developed on the basis of observations carried out in 1988. The model includes the best possible estimates of the comet's bulk properties (including the dimensions and the approximate shape), information on its state of rotation, and the characterization of its activity. The model is shown to be consistent with all lines of evidence that are currently available, including relevant information from earlier apparitions.

Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

PubMed

Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

2009-12-01

To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (< 4%) used the results of a meta-analysis from the systematic review of clinical effectiveness and none used only data from the review without further manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total, 30% of the models that included adverse effects used withdrawals related to drug toxicity and therefore might be interpreted as using withdrawals to capture adverse effects, but this was explicitly stated in only three reports. Of the 37 models that did not include adverse effects, 18 provided justification for this omission, most commonly lack of data; 19 appeared to make no explicit consideration of adverse effects in the model. There is an implicit assumption within modelling guidance that adverse effects are very important but there is a lack of clarity regarding how they should be dealt with and considered in modelling. In many cases a lack of clear reporting in the HTAs made it extremely difficult to ascertain what had actually been carried out in consideration of adverse effects. The main recommendation is for much clearer and explicit reporting of adverse effects, or their exclusion, in decision models and for explicit recognition in future guidelines that 'all relevant outcomes' should include some consideration of adverse events.

Two Strain Dengue Model with Temporary Cross Immunity and Seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Ballesteros, Sebastien; Stollenwerk, Nico

2010-09-01

Models on dengue fever epidemiology have previously shown critical fluctuations with power law distributions and also deterministic chaos in some parameter regions due to the multi-strain structure of the disease pathogen. In our first model including well known biological features, we found a rich dynamical structure including limit cycles, symmetry breaking bifurcations, torus bifurcations, coexisting attractors including isola solutions and deterministic chaos (as indicated by positive Lyapunov exponents) in a much larger parameter region, which is also biologically more plausible than the previous results of other researches. Based on these findings we will investigate the model structures further including seasonality.

A 4-cylinder Stirling engine computer program with dynamic energy equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniele, C. J.; Lorenzo, C. F.

1983-01-01

A computer program for simulating the steady state and transient performance of a four cylinder Stirling engine is presented. The thermodynamic model includes both continuity and energy equations and linear momentum terms (flow resistance). Each working space between the pistons is broken into seven control volumes. Drive dynamics and vehicle load effects are included. The model contains 70 state variables. Also included in the model are piston rod seal leakage effects. The computer program includes a model of a hydrogen supply system, from which hydrogen may be added to the system to accelerate the engine. Flow charts are provided.

Two Strain Dengue Model with Temporary Cross Immunity and Seasonality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aguiar, Maira; Ballesteros, Sebastien; Stollenwerk, Nico

Models on dengue fever epidemiology have previously shown critical fluctuations with power law distributions and also deterministic chaos in some parameter regions due to the multi-strain structure of the disease pathogen. In our first model including well known biological features, we found a rich dynamical structure including limit cycles, symmetry breaking bifurcations, torus bifurcations, coexisting attractors including isola solutions and deterministic chaos (as indicated by positive Lyapunov exponents) in a much larger parameter region, which is also biologically more plausible than the previous results of other researches. Based on these findings we will investigate the model structures further including seasonality.

A Field Synopsis of Sex in Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Paulus, Jessica K.; Wessler, Benjamin S.; Lundquist, Christine; Lai, Lana L.Y.; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S.; Kent, David M.

2017-01-01

Background Several widely-used risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) incorporate sex effects, yet there has been no systematic summary of the role of sex in clinical prediction models (CPMs). To better understand the potential of these models to support sex-specific care, we conducted a field synopsis of sex effects in CPMs for CVD. Methods and Results We identified CPMs in the Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) CPM Registry, a comprehensive database of CVD CPMs published from 1/1990–5/2012. We report the proportion of models including sex effects on CVD incidence or prognosis, summarize the directionality of the predictive effects of sex, and explore factors influencing the inclusion of sex. Of 592 CVD-related CPMs, 193 (33%) included sex as a predictor or presented sex-stratified models. Sex effects were included in 78% (53/68) of models predicting incidence of CVD in a general population, versus only 35% (59/171), 21% (12/58) and 17% (12/72) of models predicting outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and heart failure, respectively. Among sex-including CPMs, women with heart failure were at lower mortality risk in 8/8 models; women undergoing revascularization for CAD were at higher mortality risk in 10/12 models. Factors associated with the inclusion of sex effects included the number of outcome events and using cohorts at-risk for CVD (rather than with established CVD). Conclusions While CPMs hold promise for supporting sex-specific decision making in CVD clinical care, sex effects are included in only one third of published CPMs. PMID:26908865

Computational studies of horizontal axis wind turbines in high wind speed condition using advanced turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjanirat, Sarun

Next generation horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) will operate at very high wind speeds. Existing engineering approaches for modeling the flow phenomena are based on blade element theory, and cannot adequately account for 3-D separated, unsteady flow effects. Therefore, researchers around the world are beginning to model these flows using first principles-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches. In this study, an existing first principles-based Navier-Stokes approach is being enhanced to model HAWTs at high wind speeds. The enhancements include improved grid topology, implicit time-marching algorithms, and advanced turbulence models. The advanced turbulence models include the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model, k-epsilon, k-o and Shear Stress Transport (k-o-SST) models. These models are also integrated with detached eddy simulation (DES) models. Results are presented for a range of wind speeds, for a configuration termed National Renewable Energy Laboratory Phase VI rotor, tested at NASA Ames Research Center. Grid sensitivity studies are also presented. Additionally, effects of existing transition models on the predictions are assessed. Data presented include power/torque production, radial distribution of normal and tangential pressure forces, root bending moments, and surface pressure fields. Good agreement was obtained between the predictions and experiments for most of the conditions, particularly with the Spalart-Allmaras-DES model.

Attention-Modulating Effects of Cognitive Enhancers

PubMed Central

Levin, Edward D.; Bushnell, Philip J.; Rezvani, Amir H.

2011-01-01

Attention can be readily measured in experimental animal models. Animal models of attention have been used to better understand the neural systems involved in attention, how attention is impaired, and how therapeutic treatments can ameliorate attentional deficits. This review focuses on the ways in which animal models are used to better understand the neuronal mechanism of attention and how to develop new therapeutic treatments for attentional impairment. Several behavioral test methods have been developed for experimental animal studies of attention, including a 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT), a signal detection task (SDT), and a novel object recognition (NOR) test. These tasks can be used together with genetic, lesion, pharmacological and behavioral models of attentional impairment to test the efficacy of novel therapeutic treatments. The most prominent genetic model is the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR). Well-characterized lesion models include frontal cortical or hippocamapal lesions. Pharmacological models include challenge with the NMDA glutamate antagonist dizocilpine (MK-801), the nicotinic cholinergic antagonist mecamylamine and the muscarinic cholinergic antagonist scopolamine. Behavioral models include distracting stimuli and attenuated target stimuli. Important validation of these behavioral tests and models of attentional impairments for developing effective treatments for attentional dysfunction is the fact that stimulant treatments effective for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), such as methylphenidate (Ritalin®), are effective in the experimental animal models. Newer lines of treatment including nicotinic agonists, α4β2 nicotinic receptor desensitizers, and histamine H3 antagonists, have also been found to be effective in improving attention in these animal models. Good carryover has also been seen for the attentional improvement of nicotine in experimental animal models and in human populations. Animal models of attention can be effectively used for the development of new treatments of attentional impairment in ADHD and other syndromes in which have attentional impairments occur, such as Alzheimer’s disease and schizophrenia. PMID:21334367

Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk; Cook, A.S.C.P.

2016-01-15

With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measuremore » of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.« less

Modeling Emergent Macrophyte Distributions: Including Sub-dominant Species

EPA Science Inventory

Mixed stands of emergent vegetation are often present following drawdowns but models of wetland plant distributions fail to include subdominant species when predicting distributions. Three variations of a spatial plant distribution cellular automaton model were developed to explo...

Toward a Computational Model of Tutoring.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolf, Beverly Park

1992-01-01

Discusses the integration of instructional science and computer science. Topics addressed include motivation for building knowledge-based systems; instructional design issues, including cognitive models, representing student intentions, and student models and error diagnosis; representing tutoring knowledge; building a tutoring system, including…

An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-09

This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

Modeling low-temperature geochemical processes: Chapter 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Campbell, Kate M.

2014-01-01

This chapter provides an overview of geochemical modeling that applies to water–rock interactions under ambient conditions of temperature and pressure. Topics include modeling definitions, historical background, issues of activity coefficients, popular codes and databases, examples of modeling common types of water–rock interactions, and issues of model reliability. Examples include speciation, microbial redox kinetics and ferrous iron oxidation, calcite dissolution, pyrite oxidation, combined pyrite and calcite dissolution, dedolomitization, seawater–carbonate groundwater mixing, reactive-transport modeling in streams, modeling catchments, and evaporation of seawater. The chapter emphasizes limitations to geochemical modeling: that a proper understanding and ability to communicate model results well are as important as completing a set of useful modeling computations and that greater sophistication in model and code development is not necessarily an advancement. If the goal is to understand how a particular geochemical system behaves, it is better to collect more field data than rely on computer codes.

BOREAS RSS-8 BIOME-BGC Model Simulations at Tower Flux Sites in 1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Nickeson, Jaime (Editor); Kimball, John

2000-01-01

BIOME-BGC is a general ecosystem process model designed to simulate biogeochemical and hydrologic processes across multiple scales (Running and Hunt, 1993). In this investigation, BIOME-BGC was used to estimate daily water and carbon budgets for the BOREAS tower flux sites for 1994. Carbon variables estimated by the model include gross primary production (i.e., net photosynthesis), maintenance and heterotrophic respiration, net primary production, and net ecosystem carbon exchange. Hydrologic variables estimated by the model include snowcover, evaporation, transpiration, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and outflow. The information provided by the investigation includes input initialization and model output files for various sites in tabular ASCII format.

Near field interaction of microwave signals with a bounded plasma plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Hao; Hallock, Gary A.; Kim, Hyeongdong; Birkner, Bjorn

1991-01-01

The objective was to study the effect of the arcjet thruster plume on the performance of an onboard satellite reflector antenna. A project summary is presented along with sections on plasma and electromagnetic modeling. The plasma modeling section includes the following topics: wave propagation; plasma analysis; plume electron density model; and the proposed experimental program. The section on electromagnetic modeling includes new developments in ray modeling and the validation of three dimensional ray results.

Analytical model for tilting proprotor aircraft dynamics, including blade torsion and coupled bending modes, and conversion mode operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W.

1974-01-01

An analytical model is developed for proprotor aircraft dynamics. The rotor model includes coupled flap-lag bending modes, and blade torsion degrees of freedom. The rotor aerodynamic model is generally valid for high and low inflow, and for axial and nonaxial flight. For the rotor support, a cantilever wing is considered; incorporation of a more general support with this rotor model will be a straight-forward matter.

A model for proton-irradiated GaAs solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, J. W.; Walker, G. H.; Outlaw, R. A.; Stock, L. V.

1982-01-01

A simple model for proton radiation damage in GaAs heteroface solar cells is developed. The model includes the effects of spatial nonuniformity of low energy proton damage. Agreement between the model and experimental proton damage data for GaAs heteroface solar cells is satisfactory. An extension of the model to include angular isotropy, as is appropriate for protons in space, is shown to result in significantly less cell damage than for normal proton incidence.

MODEST: A Tool for Geodesy and Astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovers, Ojars J.; Jacobs, Christopher S.; Lanyi, Gabor E.

2004-01-01

Features of the JPL VLBI modeling and estimation software "MODEST" are reviewed. Its main advantages include thoroughly documented model physics, portability, and detailed error modeling. Two unique models are included: modeling of source structure and modeling of both spatial and temporal correlations in tropospheric delay noise. History of the code parallels the development of the astrometric and geodetic VLBI technique and the software retains many of the models implemented during its advancement. The code has been traceably maintained since the early 1980s, and will continue to be updated with recent IERS standards. Scripts are being developed to facilitate user-friendly data processing in the era of e-VLBI.

Theory of Planned Behavior including self-stigma and perceived barriers explain help-seeking behavior for sexual problems in Iranian women suffering from epilepsy.

PubMed

Lin, Chung-Ying; Oveisi, Sonia; Burri, Andrea; Pakpour, Amir H

2017-03-01

To apply the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the two additional concepts self-stigma and perceived barriers to the help-seeking behavior for sexual problems in women with epilepsy. In this 18-month follow-up study, TPB elements, including attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and behavioral intention along with self-stigma and perceived barriers in seeking help for sexual problems were assessed in n=818 women with epilepsy (94.0% aged ≤40years). The basic TPB model (model 1) and the TPB model additionally including self-stigma and perceived barriers (Model 2) were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Both SEM models showed satisfactory model fits. According to model, attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention explained 63.1% of the variance in help-seeking behavior. Variance was slightly higher (64.5%) when including self-stigma and perceived barriers (model 2). In addition, the fit indices of the models were better highlighting the importance of self-stigma and perceived barriers in help-seeking behavior for sexual problems. Theory of Planned Behavior is useful in explaining help-seeking behavior for sexual problems in women with epilepsy. Self-stigma and perceived barriers are additional factors that should be considered in future interventions aiming to adopt TPB to improve help-seeking behavior for sexual problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

1989-01-01

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Integrated Exoplanet Modeling with the GSFC Exoplanet Modeling & Analysis Center (EMAC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandell, Avi M.; Hostetter, Carl; Pulkkinen, Antti; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn David

2018-01-01

Our ability to characterize the atmospheres of extrasolar planets will be revolutionized by JWST, WFIRST and future ground- and space-based telescopes. In preparation, the exoplanet community must develop an integrated suite of tools with which we can comprehensively predict and analyze observations of exoplanets, in order to characterize the planetary environments and ultimately search them for signs of habitability and life.The GSFC Exoplanet Modeling and Analysis Center (EMAC) will be a web-accessible high-performance computing platform with science support for modelers and software developers to host and integrate their scientific software tools, with the goal of leveraging the scientific contributions from the entire exoplanet community to improve our interpretations of future exoplanet discoveries. Our suite of models will include stellar models, models for star-planet interactions, atmospheric models, planet system science models, telescope models, instrument models, and finally models for retrieving signals from observational data. By integrating this suite of models, the community will be able to self-consistently calculate the emergent spectra from the planet whether from emission, scattering, or in transmission, and use these simulations to model the performance of current and new telescopes and their instrumentation.The EMAC infrastructure will not only provide a repository for planetary and exoplanetary community models, modeling tools and intermodal comparisons, but it will include a "run-on-demand" portal with each software tool hosted on a separate virtual machine. The EMAC system will eventually include a means of running or “checking in” new model simulations that are in accordance with the community-derived standards. Additionally, the results of intermodal comparisons will be used to produce open source publications that quantify the model comparisons and provide an overview of community consensus on model uncertainties on the climates of various planetary targets.

JEDI Geothermal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Geothermal Model JEDI Geothermal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Geothermal Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from geothermal projects and includes

JEDI Biofuels Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Biofuels Models JEDI Biofuels Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) biofuel models allow users to estimate economic development impacts from biofuel projects and include default

JEDI Petroleum Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Petroleum Model JEDI Petroleum Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Petroleum Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from petroleum projects and includes default

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (ISOTROPIC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, R. S.; Schoendorf, J. F.; Lin, L. S.

1986-01-01

The specific activities summarized include: verification experiments (base program); thermomechanical cycling model; multiaxial stress state model; cumulative loading model; screening of potential environmental and protective coating models; and environmental attack model.

Ocean modelling for aquaculture and fisheries in Irish waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabrowski, T.; Lyons, K.; Cusack, C.; Casal, G.; Berry, A.; Nolan, G. D.

2015-06-01

The Marine Institute, Ireland, runs a suite of operational regional and coastal ocean models. Recent developments include several tailored products that focus on the key needs of the Irish aquaculture sector. In this article, an overview of the products and services derived from the models are presented. A shellfish model that includes growth and physiological interactions of mussels with the ecosystem and is fully embedded in the 3-D numerical modelling framework has been developed at the Marine Institute. This shellfish model has a microbial module designed to predict levels of coliform contamination in mussels. This model can also be used to estimate the carrying capacity of embayments, assess impacts of pollution on aquaculture grounds and help to classify shellfish waters. The physical coastal model of southwest Ireland provides a three day forecast of shelf water movement in the region. This is assimilated into a new harmful algal bloom alert system used to inform end-users of potential toxic shellfish events and high biomass blooms that include fish killing species. Further services include the use of models to identify potential sites for offshore aquaculture, to inform studies of potential cross-contamination in farms from the dispersal of planktonic sea lice larvae and other pathogens that can infect finfish and to provide modelled products that underpin the assessment and advisory services on the sustainable exploitation of the marine fisheries resources. This paper demonstrates that ocean models can provide an invaluable contribution to the sustainable blue growth of aquaculture and fisheries.

University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study: comparisons of high risk prediction, any risk prediction, and any risk etiologic models.

PubMed

Beck, J D; Weintraub, J A; Disney, J A; Graves, R C; Stamm, J W; Kaste, L M; Bohannan, H M

1992-12-01

The purpose of this analysis is to compare three different statistical models for predicting children likely to be at risk of developing dental caries over a 3-yr period. Data are based on 4117 children who participated in the University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study, a longitudinal study conducted in the Aiken, South Carolina, and Portland, Maine areas. The three models differed with respect to either the types of variables included or the definition of disease outcome. The two "Prediction" models included both risk factor variables thought to cause dental caries and indicator variables that are associated with dental caries, but are not thought to be causal for the disease. The "Etiologic" model included only etiologic factors as variables. A dichotomous outcome measure--none or any 3-yr increment, was used in the "Any Risk Etiologic model" and the "Any Risk Prediction Model". Another outcome, based on a gradient measure of disease, was used in the "High Risk Prediction Model". The variables that are significant in these models vary across grades and sites, but are more consistent among the Etiologic model than the Predictor models. However, among the three sets of models, the Any Risk Prediction Models have the highest sensitivity and positive predictive values, whereas the High Risk Prediction Models have the highest specificity and negative predictive values. Considerations in determining model preference are discussed.

Models of clinical reasoning with a focus on general practice: A critical review

PubMed Central

YAZDANI, SHAHRAM; HOSSEINZADEH, MOHAMMAD; HOSSEINI, FAKHROLSADAT

2017-01-01

Introduction: Diagnosis lies at the heart of general practice. Every day general practitioners (GPs) visit patients with a wide variety of complaints and concerns, with often minor but sometimes serious symptoms. General practice has many features which differentiate it from specialty care setting, but during the last four decades little attention was paid to clinical reasoning in general practice. Therefore, we aimed to critically review the clinical reasoning models with a focus on the clinical reasoning in general practice or clinical reasoning of general practitioners to find out to what extent the existing models explain the clinical reasoning specially in primary care and also identity the gaps of the model for use in primary care settings. Methods: A systematic search to find models of clinical reasoning were performed. To have more precision, we excluded the studies that focused on neurobiological aspects of reasoning, reasoning in disciplines other than medicine decision making or decision analysis on treatment or management plan. All the articles and documents were first scanned to see whether they include important relevant contents or any models. The selected studies which described a model of clinical reasoning in general practitioners or with a focus on general practice were then reviewed and appraisal or critics of other authors on these models were included. The reviewed documents on the model were synthesized. Results: Six models of clinical reasoning were identified including hypothetic-deductive model, pattern recognition, a dual process diagnostic reasoning model, pathway for clinical reasoning, an integrative model of clinical reasoning, and model of diagnostic reasoning strategies in primary care. Only one model had specifically focused on general practitioners reasoning. Conclusion: A Model of clinical reasoning that included specific features of general practice to better help the general practitioners with the difficulties of clinical reasoning in this setting is needed. PMID:28979912

Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model: Theory, Application and User Documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarz, G.E.; Hoos, A.B.; Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.

2006-01-01

SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) is a watershed modeling technique for relating water-quality measurements made at a network of monitoring stations to attributes of the watersheds containing the stations. The core of the model consists of a nonlinear regression equation describing the non-conservative transport of contaminants from point and diffuse sources on land to rivers and through the stream and river network. The model predicts contaminant flux, concentration, and yield in streams and has been used to evaluate alternative hypotheses about the important contaminant sources and watershed properties that control transport over large spatial scales. This report provides documentation for the SPARROW modeling technique and computer software to guide users in constructing and applying basic SPARROW models. The documentation gives details of the SPARROW software, including the input data and installation requirements, and guidance in the specification, calibration, and application of basic SPARROW models, as well as descriptions of the model output and its interpretation. The documentation is intended for both researchers and water-resource managers with interest in using the results of existing models and developing and applying new SPARROW models. The documentation of the model is presented in two parts. Part 1 provides a theoretical and practical introduction to SPARROW modeling techniques, which includes a discussion of the objectives, conceptual attributes, and model infrastructure of SPARROW. Part 1 also includes background on the commonly used model specifications and the methods for estimating and evaluating parameters, evaluating model fit, and generating water-quality predictions and measures of uncertainty. Part 2 provides a user's guide to SPARROW, which includes a discussion of the software architecture and details of the model input requirements and output files, graphs, and maps. The text documentation and computer software are available on the Web at http://usgs.er.gov/sparrow/sparrow-mod/.

Diffusion weighted imaging in patients with rectal cancer: Comparison between Gaussian and non-Gaussian models

PubMed Central

Marias, Kostas; Lambregts, Doenja M. J.; Nikiforaki, Katerina; van Heeswijk, Miriam M.; Bakers, Frans C. H.; Beets-Tan, Regina G. H.

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of four diffusion models, including mono and bi-exponential both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models, in diffusion weighted imaging of rectal cancer. Material and methods Nineteen patients with rectal adenocarcinoma underwent MRI examination of the rectum before chemoradiation therapy including a 7 b-value diffusion sequence (0, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 2000 s/mm2) at a 1.5T scanner. Four different diffusion models including mono- and bi-exponential Gaussian (MG and BG) and non-Gaussian (MNG and BNG) were applied on whole tumor volumes of interest. Two different statistical criteria were recruited to assess their fitting performance, including the adjusted-R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). To decide which model better characterizes rectal cancer, model selection was relied on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and F-ratio. Results All candidate models achieved a good fitting performance with the two most complex models, the BG and the BNG, exhibiting the best fitting performance. However, both criteria for model selection indicated that the MG model performed better than any other model. In particular, using AIC Weights and F-ratio, the pixel-based analysis demonstrated that tumor areas better described by the simplest MG model in an average area of 53% and 33%, respectively. Non-Gaussian behavior was illustrated in an average area of 37% according to the F-ratio, and 7% using AIC Weights. However, the distributions of the pixels best fitted by each of the four models suggest that MG failed to perform better than any other model in all patients, and the overall tumor area. Conclusion No single diffusion model evaluated herein could accurately describe rectal tumours. These findings probably can be explained on the basis of increased tumour heterogeneity, where areas with high vascularity could be fitted better with bi-exponential models, and areas with necrosis would mostly follow mono-exponential behavior. PMID:28863161

Diffusion weighted imaging in patients with rectal cancer: Comparison between Gaussian and non-Gaussian models.

PubMed

Manikis, Georgios C; Marias, Kostas; Lambregts, Doenja M J; Nikiforaki, Katerina; van Heeswijk, Miriam M; Bakers, Frans C H; Beets-Tan, Regina G H; Papanikolaou, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of four diffusion models, including mono and bi-exponential both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models, in diffusion weighted imaging of rectal cancer. Nineteen patients with rectal adenocarcinoma underwent MRI examination of the rectum before chemoradiation therapy including a 7 b-value diffusion sequence (0, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 2000 s/mm2) at a 1.5T scanner. Four different diffusion models including mono- and bi-exponential Gaussian (MG and BG) and non-Gaussian (MNG and BNG) were applied on whole tumor volumes of interest. Two different statistical criteria were recruited to assess their fitting performance, including the adjusted-R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). To decide which model better characterizes rectal cancer, model selection was relied on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and F-ratio. All candidate models achieved a good fitting performance with the two most complex models, the BG and the BNG, exhibiting the best fitting performance. However, both criteria for model selection indicated that the MG model performed better than any other model. In particular, using AIC Weights and F-ratio, the pixel-based analysis demonstrated that tumor areas better described by the simplest MG model in an average area of 53% and 33%, respectively. Non-Gaussian behavior was illustrated in an average area of 37% according to the F-ratio, and 7% using AIC Weights. However, the distributions of the pixels best fitted by each of the four models suggest that MG failed to perform better than any other model in all patients, and the overall tumor area. No single diffusion model evaluated herein could accurately describe rectal tumours. These findings probably can be explained on the basis of increased tumour heterogeneity, where areas with high vascularity could be fitted better with bi-exponential models, and areas with necrosis would mostly follow mono-exponential behavior.

A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for lower extremity artery disease.

PubMed

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Kleinegris, Marie-Claire; ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

2014-01-01

Lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) is a sign of wide spread atherosclerosis also affecting coronary, cerebral and renal arteries and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. Many economic evaluations have been published for LEAD due to its clinical, social and economic importance. The aim of this systematic review was to assess modelling methods used in published economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Our review appraised and compared the general characteristics, model structure and methodological quality of published models. Electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until February 2013 via OVID interface. Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Health Technology Assessment database hosted by National Institute for Health research and National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED) were also searched. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed by using the Philips' checklist. Sixteen model-based economic evaluations were identified and included. Eleven models compared therapeutic health technologies; three models compared diagnostic tests and two models compared a combination of diagnostic and therapeutic options for LEAD. Results of this systematic review revealed an acceptable to low methodological quality of the included studies. Methodological diversity and insufficient information posed a challenge for valid comparison of the included studies. In conclusion, there is a need for transparent, methodologically comparable and scientifically credible model-based economic evaluations in the field of LEAD. Future modelling studies should include clinically and economically important cardiovascular outcomes to reflect the wider impact of LEAD on individual patients and on the society.

Nonequilibrium radiation and chemistry models for aerocapture vehicle flowfields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Leland A.

1994-01-01

The primary accomplishments of the project were as follows: (1) From an overall standpoint, the primary accomplishment of this research was the development of a complete gasdynamic-radiatively coupled nonequilibrium viscous shock layer solution method for axisymmetric blunt bodies. This method can be used for rapid engineering modeling of nonequilibrium re-entry flowfields over a wide range of conditions. (2) Another significant accomplishment was the development of an air radiation model that included local thermodynamic nonequilibrium (LTNE) phenomena. (3) As part of this research, three electron-electronic energy models were developed. The first was a quasi-equilibrium electron (QEE) model which determined an effective free electron temperature and assumed that the electronic states were in equilibrium with the free electrons. The second was a quasi-equilibrium electron-electronic (QEEE) model which computed an effective electron-electronic temperature. The third model was a full electron-electronic (FEE) differential equation model which included convective, collisional, viscous, conductive, vibrational coupling, and chemical effects on electron-electronic energy. (4) Since vibration-dissociation coupling phenomena as well as vibrational thermal nonequilibrium phenomena are important in the nonequilibrium zone behind a shock front, a vibrational energy and vibration-dissociation coupling model was developed and included in the flowfield model. This model was a modified coupled vibrational dissociation vibrational (MCVDV) model and also included electron-vibrational coupling. (5) Another accomplishment of the project was the usage of the developed models to investigate radiative heating. (6) A multi-component diffusion model which properly models the multi-component nature of diffusion in complex gas mixtures such as air, was developed and incorporated into the blunt body model. (7) A model was developed to predict the magnitude and characteristics of the shock wave precursor ahead of vehicles entering the Earth's atmosphere. (8) Since considerable data exists for radiating nonequilibrium flow behind normal shock waves, a normal shock wave version of the blunt body code was developed. (9) By comparing predictions from the models and codes with available normal shock data and the flight data of Fire II, it is believed that the developed flowfield and nonequilibrium radiation models have been essentially validated for engineering applications.

Infection prevention behaviour and infectious disease modelling: a review of the literature and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Weston, Dale; Hauck, Katharina; Amlôt, Richard

2018-03-09

Given the importance of person to person transmission in the spread of infectious diseases, it is critically important to ensure that human behaviour with respect to infection prevention is appropriately represented within infectious disease models. This paper presents a large scale scoping review regarding the incorporation of infection prevention behaviour in infectious disease models. The outcomes of this review are contextualised within the psychological literature concerning health behaviour and behaviour change, resulting in a series of key recommendations for the incorporation of human behaviour in future infectious disease models. The search strategy focused on terms relating to behaviour, infectious disease and mathematical modelling. The selection criteria were developed iteratively to focus on original research articles that present an infectious disease model with human-human spread, in which individuals' self-protective health behaviour varied endogenously within the model. Data extracted included: the behaviour that is modelled; how this behaviour is modelled; any theoretical background for the modelling of behaviour, and; any behavioural data used to parameterise the models. Forty-two papers from an initial total of 2987 were retained for inclusion in the final review. All of these papers were published between 2002 and 2015. Many of the included papers employed a multiple, linked models to incorporate infection prevention behaviour. Both cognitive constructs (e.g., perceived risk) and, to a lesser extent, social constructs (e.g., social norms) were identified in the included papers. However, only five papers made explicit reference to psychological health behaviour change theories. Finally, just under half of the included papers incorporated behavioural data in their modelling. By contextualising the review outcomes within the psychological literature on health behaviour and behaviour change, three key recommendations for future behavioural modelling are made. First, modellers should consult with the psychological literature on health behaviour/ behaviour change when developing new models. Second, modellers interested in exploring the relationship between behaviour and disease spread should draw on social psychological literature to increase the complexity of the social world represented within infectious disease models. Finally, greater use of context-specific behavioural data (e.g., survey data, observational data) is recommended to parameterise models.

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders

2007-01-01

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models,…

UNITED STATES METEOROLOGICAL DATA - DAILY AND HOURLY FILES TO SUPPORT PREDICTIVE EXPOSURE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

ORD numerical models for pesticide exposure include a model of spray drift (AgDisp), a cropland pesticide persistence model (PRZM), a surface water exposure model (EXAMS), and a model of fish bioaccumulation (BASS). A unified climatological database for these models has been asse...

Enhancement of the Acquisition Process for a Combat System-A Case Study to Model the Workflow Processes for an Air Defense System Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

Business Process Modeling BPMN Business Process Modeling Notation SoA Service-oriented Architecture UML Unified Modeling Language CSP...system developers. Supporting technologies include Business Process Modeling Notation ( BPMN ), Unified Modeling Language (UML), model-driven architecture

Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment in the United States: Exemplary Models from a National Evaluation Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Sally J.; Morral, Andrew R.

This book provides detailed descriptions of exemplary adolescent drug treatment models and gives the latest information on substance use and its consequences. The examinations of treatment models included in this book include programs serving adolescent substance users from a wide range of ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Chapters include: (1)…

Modeling formalisms in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Systems Biology has taken advantage of computational tools and high-throughput experimental data to model several biological processes. These include signaling, gene regulatory, and metabolic networks. However, most of these models are specific to each kind of network. Their interconnection demands a whole-cell modeling framework for a complete understanding of cellular systems. We describe the features required by an integrated framework for modeling, analyzing and simulating biological processes, and review several modeling formalisms that have been used in Systems Biology including Boolean networks, Bayesian networks, Petri nets, process algebras, constraint-based models, differential equations, rule-based models, interacting state machines, cellular automata, and agent-based models. We compare the features provided by different formalisms, and discuss recent approaches in the integration of these formalisms, as well as possible directions for the future. PMID:22141422

Theories, models and frameworks used in capacity building interventions relevant to public health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bergeron, Kim; Abdi, Samiya; DeCorby, Kara; Mensah, Gloria; Rempel, Benjamin; Manson, Heather

2017-11-28

There is limited research on capacity building interventions that include theoretical foundations. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify underlying theories, models and frameworks used to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health practice. The aim is to inform and improve capacity building practices and services offered by public health organizations. Four search strategies were used: 1) electronic database searching; 2) reference lists of included papers; 3) key informant consultation; and 4) grey literature searching. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined with included papers focusing on capacity building, learning plans, professional development plans in combination with tools, resources, processes, procedures, steps, model, framework, guideline, described in a public health or healthcare setting, or non-government, government, or community organizations as they relate to healthcare, and explicitly or implicitly mention a theory, model and/or framework that grounds the type of capacity building approach developed. Quality assessment were performed on all included articles. Data analysis included a process for synthesizing, analyzing and presenting descriptive summaries, categorizing theoretical foundations according to which theory, model and/or framework was used and whether or not the theory, model or framework was implied or explicitly identified. Nineteen articles were included in this review. A total of 28 theories, models and frameworks were identified. Of this number, two theories (Diffusion of Innovations and Transformational Learning), two models (Ecological and Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation) and one framework (Bloom's Taxonomy of Learning) were identified as the most frequently cited. This review identifies specific theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health organizations. It provides public health practitioners with a menu of potentially usable theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building efforts. The findings also support the need for the use of theories, models or frameworks to be intentional, explicitly identified, referenced and for it to be clearly outlined how they were applied to the capacity building intervention.

Interfacial mixing in high energy-density matter with a multiphysics kinetic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haack, Jeff; Hauck, Cory; Murillo, Michael

2017-10-01

We have extended a recently-developed multispecies, multitemperature BGK model to include multiphysics capability that allows modeling of a wider range of plasma conditions. In particular, we have extended the model to describe one spatial dimension, and included a multispecies atomic ionization model, accurate collision physics across coupling regimes, self-consistent electric fields, and degeneracy in the electronic screening. We apply the new model to a warm dense matter scenario in which the ablator-fuel interface of an inertial confinement fusion target is heated, similar to a recent molecular dynamics study, but for larger length and time scales and for much higher temperatures. From our numerical results we are able to explore a variety of phenomena, including hydrogen jetting, kinetic effects (non-Maxwellian and anisotropic distributions), plasma physics (size, persistence and role of electric fields) and transport (relative sizes of Fickean diffision, electrodiffusion and barodiffusion). As compared with the recent molecular dynamics work the kinetic model greatly extends the accessible physical domains we are able to model.

Extending the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration: Adding Pedagogy as a New Model Construct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knezek, Gerald; Christensen, Rhonda

2016-01-01

An expansion of the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration to include teacher's pedagogical style is proposed by the authors as a means of advancing the predictive power of the model for level of classroom technology integration to beyond 90%. Suggested advantages to this expansion include more precise identification of areas to be…

Slow-Slip Phenomena Represented by the One-Dimensional Burridge-Knopoff Model of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, Hikaru; Yamamoto, Maho; Ueda, Yushi

2018-05-01

Slow-slip phenomena, including afterslips and silent earthquakes, are studied using a one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model that obeys the rate-and-state dependent friction law. By varying only a few model parameters, this simple model allows reproducing a variety of seismic slips within a single framework, including main shocks, precursory nucleation processes, afterslips, and silent earthquakes.

Nuclear fuel requirements for the American economy - A model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, Thomas Dexter

A model is provided to determine the amounts of various fuel streams required to supply energy from planned and projected nuclear plant operations, including new builds. Flexible, user-defined scenarios can be constructed with respect to energy requirements, choices of reactors and choices of fuels. The model includes interactive effects and extends through 2099. Outputs include energy provided by reactors, the number of reactors, and masses of natural Uranium and other fuels used. Energy demand, including electricity and hydrogen, is obtained from US DOE historical data and projections, along with other studies of potential hydrogen demand. An option to include other energy demand to nuclear power is included. Reactor types modeled include (thermal reactors) PWRs, BWRs and MHRs and (fast reactors) GFRs and SFRs. The MHRs (VHTRs), GFRs and SFRs are similar to those described in the 2002 DOE "Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems." Fuel source choices include natural Uranium, self-recycled spent fuel, Plutonium from breeder reactors and existing stockpiles of surplus HEU, military Plutonium, LWR spent fuel and depleted Uranium. Other reactors and fuel sources can be added to the model. Fidelity checks of the model's results indicate good agreement with historical Uranium use and number of reactors, and with DOE projections. The model supports conclusions that substantial use of natural Uranium will likely continue to the end of the 21st century, though legacy spent fuel and depleted uranium could easily supply all nuclear energy demand by shifting to predominant use of fast reactors.

The numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models: State of the art and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingbeil, Knut; Lemarié, Florian; Debreu, Laurent; Burchard, Hans

2018-05-01

The state of the art of the numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is reviewed here. First, some fundamental differences in the hydrodynamics of the coastal ocean, such as the large surface elevation variation compared to the mean water depth, are contrasted against large scale ocean dynamics. Then the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in coastal ocean models as well as in large scale ocean models are presented, including parameterisations for turbulent transports. As steps towards discretisation, coordinate transformations and spatial discretisations based on a finite-volume approach are discussed with focus on the specific requirements for coastal ocean models. As in large scale ocean models, splitting of internal and external modes is essential also for coastal ocean models, but specific care is needed when drying & flooding of intertidal flats is included. As one obvious characteristic of coastal ocean models, open boundaries occur and need to be treated in a way that correct model forcing from outside is transmitted to the model domain without reflecting waves from the inside. Here, also new developments in two-way nesting are presented. Single processes such as internal inertia-gravity waves, advection and turbulence closure models are discussed with focus on the coastal scales. Some overview on existing hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is given, including their extensions towards non-hydrostatic models. Finally, an outlook on future perspectives is made.

How much rainfall sustained a Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul; Harper, Anna

2016-04-01

The present-day Sahara desert has periodically transformed to an area of lakes and vegetation during the Quaternary in response to orbitally-induced changes in the monsoon circulation. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of the mid-Holocene generally underestimate the required monsoon shift, casting doubt on the fidelity of these models. However, the climatic regime that characterised this period remains unclear. To address this, we applied an ensemble of dynamic vegetation model simulations using two different models: JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) a comprehensive land surface model, and LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena model) a widely used dynamic vegetation model. The simulations are forced with a number of idealized climate scenarios, in which an observational climatology is progressively altered with imposed anomalies of precipitation and other related variables, including cloud cover and humidity. The applied anomalies are based on an ensemble of general circulation model simulations, and include seasonal variations but are spatially uniform across the region. When perturbing precipitation alone, a significant increase of at least 700mm/year is required to produce model simulations with non-negligible vegetation coverage in the Sahara region. Changes in related variables including cloud cover, surface radiation fluxes and humidity are found to be important in the models, as they modify the water balance and so affect plant growth. Including anomalies in all of these variables together reduces the precipitation change required for a Green Sahara compared to the case of increasing precipitation alone. We assess whether the precipitation changes implied by these vegetation model simulations are consistent with reconstructions for the mid-Holocene from pollen samples. Further, Earth System models predict precipitation increases that are significantly smaller than that inferred from these vegetation model simulations. Understanding this difference presents an ongoing challenge.

Verification and Validation of COAMPS: Results from a Fully-Coupled Air/Sea/Wave Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Chu, Y. P.; Dykes, J.; Zamudio, L.; Chen, S.; Gabersek, S.

2016-02-01

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is a state-of-the art, fully-coupled air/sea/wave modeling system that is currently being validated for operational transition to both the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) and to the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). COAMPS is run at the Department of Defense Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) operated by the DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP). A total of four models including the Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN), WaveWatch III, and the COAMPS atmospheric model are coupled through both the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Results from regions of naval operational interests, including the Western Atlantic (U.S. East Coast), RIMPAC (Hawaii), and DYNAMO (Indian Ocean), will show the advantages of utilizing a coupled modeling system versus an uncoupled or stand alone model. Statistical analyses, which include model/observation comparisons, will be presented in the form of operationally approved scorecards for both the atmospheric and oceanic output. Also, computational logistics involving the HPC resources for the COAMPS simulations will be shown.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2016, CMAQ version 5.1.1 will be released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.1 (the current public release version of the CMAQ model), and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Some specific model updates include a new implementation of the wind-blown dust calculation in CMAQv5.1.1 which fixes several bugs that were identified in the current implementation of wind-blown dust in CMAQv5.1. Several other major updates to the model include an update to the calculation of aerosols; implementation of full halogen chemistry (CMAQv5.1 contains a partial implementation of halogen chemistry), which is particularly important for hemispheric applications of the CMAQ model, as halogen chemistry is need to accurately simulation the destruction of ozone over the ocean; and the new carbon bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1.1 simulations will be performed to assess the impact of these

Performer-centric Interface Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGraw, Karen L.

1995-01-01

Describes performer-centric interface design and explains a model-based approach for conducting performer-centric analysis and design. Highlights include design methodology, including cognitive task analysis; creating task scenarios; creating the presentation model; creating storyboards; proof of concept screens; object models and icons;…

Instructional Aids in Mathematics: Using Models as Instructional Aids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Donovan A.; And Others

1973-01-01

Models are discussed both as concrete representations of mental constructs and as various manipulative devices. Illustrations of effective model use, suggestions for acquiring models, and lists of models for specific concepts are included. (LS)

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rotter, R. P.

2015-01-01

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

A general consumer-resource population model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

2015-01-01

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

Java Web Simulation (JWS); a web based database of kinetic models.

PubMed

Snoep, J L; Olivier, B G

2002-01-01

Software to make a database of kinetic models accessible via the internet has been developed and a core database has been set up at http://jjj.biochem.sun.ac.za/. This repository of models, available to everyone with internet access, opens a whole new way in which we can make our models public. Via the database, a user can change enzyme parameters and run time simulations or steady state analyses. The interface is user friendly and no additional software is necessary. The database currently contains 10 models, but since the generation of the program code to include new models has largely been automated the addition of new models is straightforward and people are invited to submit their models to be included in the database.

Computation of turbulent high speed mixing layers using a two-equation turbulence model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narayan, J. R.; Sekar, B.

1991-01-01

A two-equation turbulence model was extended to be applicable for compressible flows. A compressibility correction based on modelling the dilational terms in the Reynolds stress equations were included in the model. The model is used in conjunction with the SPARK code for the computation of high speed mixing layers. The observed trend of decreasing growth rate with increasing convective Mach number in compressible mixing layers is well predicted by the model. The predictions agree well with the experimental data and the results from a compressible Reynolds stress model. The present model appears to be well suited for the study of compressible free shear flows. Preliminary results obtained for the reacting mixing layers are included.

Modeling High-Resolution Coastal Ocean Dynamics with COAMPS: System Overview, Applications and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Edwards, K. L.; Smith, T.; Martin, P.; Hebert, D. A.; Rogers, W.; Dykes, J. D.; Jacobs, G. A.; Spence, P. L.; Bartels, B.

2014-12-01

The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) is an atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system developed by the Naval Research Laboratory which can be configured to cycle regional forecasts/analysis models in single-model (atmosphere, ocean, and wave) or coupled-model (atmosphere-ocean, ocean-wave, and atmosphere-ocean-wave) modes. The model coupling is performed using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the wave components include Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and WaveWatch-III. NCOM has been modified to include wetting and drying, the effects of Stokes drift current, wave radiation stresses due to horizontal gradients of the momentum flux of surface waves, enhancement of bottom drag in shallow water, and enhanced vertical mixing due to Langmuir turbulence. An overview of the modeling system including ocean data assimilation and specification of boundary conditions will be presented. Results from a high-resolution (10-250m) modeling study from the Surfzone Coastal Oil Pathways Experiment (SCOPE) near Ft. Walton Beach, Florida in December 2013 will be presented. ®COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; ...

2016-02-20

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler A; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Yang, Chuanbo

Computer models are helping to accelerate the design and validation of next generation batteries and provide valuable insights not possible through experimental testing alone. Validated 3-D physics-based models exist for predicting electrochemical performance, thermal and mechanical response of cells and packs under normal and abuse scenarios. The talk describes present efforts to make the models better suited for engineering design, including improving their computation speed, developing faster processes for model parameter identification including under aging, and predicting the performance of a proposed electrode material recipe a priori using microstructure models.

Inner Magnetosphere Modeling at the CCMC: Ring Current, Radiation Belt and Magnetic Field Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastaetter, L.; Mendoza, A. M.; Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Zheng, Y.

2013-12-01

Modeling of the inner magnetosphere has entered center stage with the launch of the Van Allen Probes (RBSP) in 2012. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has drastically improved its offerings of inner magnetosphere models that cover energetic particles in the Earth's ring current and radiation belts. Models added to the CCMC include the stand-alone Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model by M.C. Fok, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) by R. Wolf and S. Sazykin and numerous versions of the Tsyganenko magnetic field model (T89, T96, T01quiet, TS05). These models join the LANL* model by Y. Yu hat was offered for instant run earlier in the year. In addition to these stand-alone models, the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) by M.C. Fok and N. Buzulukova joined as a component of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) in the magnetosphere model run-on-request category. We present modeling results of the ring current and radiation belt models and demonstrate tracking of satellites such as RBSP. Calculations using the magnetic field models include mappings to the magnetic equator or to minimum-B positions and the determination of foot points in the ionosphere.

Systems and methods for modeling and analyzing networks

DOEpatents

Hill, Colin C; Church, Bruce W; McDonagh, Paul D; Khalil, Iya G; Neyarapally, Thomas A; Pitluk, Zachary W

2013-10-29

The systems and methods described herein utilize a probabilistic modeling framework for reverse engineering an ensemble of causal models, from data and then forward simulating the ensemble of models to analyze and predict the behavior of the network. In certain embodiments, the systems and methods described herein include data-driven techniques for developing causal models for biological networks. Causal network models include computational representations of the causal relationships between independent variables such as a compound of interest and dependent variables such as measured DNA alterations, changes in mRNA, protein, and metabolites to phenotypic readouts of efficacy and toxicity.

Testing the Predictive Power of Coulomb Stress on Aftershock Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, J.; Lombardi, A.; Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.

2009-12-01

Empirical and statistical models of clustered seismicity are usually strongly stochastic and perceived to be uninformative in their forecasts, since only marginal distributions are used, such as the Omori-Utsu and Gutenberg-Richter laws. In contrast, so-called physics-based aftershock models, based on seismic rate changes calculated from Coulomb stress changes and rate-and-state friction, make more specific predictions: anisotropic stress shadows and multiplicative rate changes. We test the predictive power of models based on Coulomb stress changes against statistical models, including the popular Short Term Earthquake Probabilities and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences models: We score and compare retrospective forecasts on the aftershock sequences of the 1992 Landers, USA, the 1997 Colfiorito, Italy, and the 2008 Selfoss, Iceland, earthquakes. To quantify predictability, we use likelihood-based metrics that test the consistency of the forecasts with the data, including modified and existing tests used in prospective forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results indicate that a statistical model performs best. Moreover, two Coulomb model classes seem unable to compete: Models based on deterministic Coulomb stress changes calculated from a given fault-slip model, and those based on fixed receiver faults. One model of Coulomb stress changes does perform well and sometimes outperforms the statistical models, but its predictive information is diluted, because of uncertainties included in the fault-slip model. Our results suggest that models based on Coulomb stress changes need to incorporate stochastic features that represent model and data uncertainty.

A Biopsychosocial-Spiritual Model of Chronic Pain in Adults with Sickle Cell Disease

PubMed Central

Taylor, Lou Ella V.; Stotts, Nancy A.; Humphreys, Janice; Treadwell, Marsha J.; Miaskowski, Christine

2011-01-01

Chronic pain in adults with sickle cell disease (SCD) is a complex multidimensional experience that includes biological, psychological, sociological, and spiritual factors. To date, three models of pain associated with SCD (i.e., biomedical model; biopsychosocial model for SCD pain; Health Belief Model) are published. The biopsychosocial (BPS) multidimensional approach to chronic pain developed by Turk and Gatchel is a widely used model of chronic pain. However, this model has not been applied to chronic pain associated with SCD. In addition, a spiritual/religious dimension is not included in this model. Because spirituality/religion is central to persons affected by SCD, this dimension needs to be added to any model of chronic pain in adults with SCD. In fact, data from one study suggest that spirituality/religiosity is associated with decreased pain intensity in adults with chronic pain from SCD. A BPS-Spiritual model is proposed for adults with chronic pain from SCD since it embraces the whole person. This model includes the biological, psychological, sociological, and spiritual factors relevant to adults with SCD based on past and current research. The purpose of this paper is to describe an adaptation of Turk and Gatchel’s model of chronic pain for adults with SCD and to summarize research findings that support each component of the revised model (i.e., biological, psychological, sociological, spiritual). The paper concludes with a discussion of implications for the use of this model in research. PMID:24315252

Metal Ion Modeling Using Classical Mechanics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Metal ions play significant roles in numerous fields including chemistry, geochemistry, biochemistry, and materials science. With computational tools increasingly becoming important in chemical research, methods have emerged to effectively face the challenge of modeling metal ions in the gas, aqueous, and solid phases. Herein, we review both quantum and classical modeling strategies for metal ion-containing systems that have been developed over the past few decades. This Review focuses on classical metal ion modeling based on unpolarized models (including the nonbonded, bonded, cationic dummy atom, and combined models), polarizable models (e.g., the fluctuating charge, Drude oscillator, and the induced dipole models), the angular overlap model, and valence bond-based models. Quantum mechanical studies of metal ion-containing systems at the semiempirical, ab initio, and density functional levels of theory are reviewed as well with a particular focus on how these methods inform classical modeling efforts. Finally, conclusions and future prospects and directions are offered that will further enhance the classical modeling of metal ion-containing systems. PMID:28045509

Thermal Model Development for Ares I-X

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, Ruth M.; DelCorso, Joe

2008-01-01

Thermal analysis for the Ares I-X vehicle has involved extensive thermal model integration, since thermal models of vehicle elements came from several different NASA and industry organizations. Many valuable lessons were learned in terms of model integration and validation. Modeling practices such as submodel, analysis group and symbol naming were standardized to facilitate the later model integration. Upfront coordination of coordinate systems, timelines, units, symbols and case scenarios was very helpful in minimizing integration rework. A process for model integration was developed that included pre-integration runs and basic checks of both models, and a step-by-step process to efficiently integrate one model into another. Extensive use of model logic was used to create scenarios and timelines for avionics and air flow activation. Efficient methods of model restart between case scenarios were developed. Standardization of software version and even compiler version between organizations was found to be essential. An automated method for applying aeroheating to the full integrated vehicle model, including submodels developed by other organizations, was developed.

Development of a new generation of high-resolution anatomical models for medical device evaluation: the Virtual Population 3.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosselin, Marie-Christine; Neufeld, Esra; Moser, Heidi; Huber, Eveline; Farcito, Silvia; Gerber, Livia; Jedensjö, Maria; Hilber, Isabel; Di Gennaro, Fabienne; Lloyd, Bryn; Cherubini, Emilio; Szczerba, Dominik; Kainz, Wolfgang; Kuster, Niels

2014-09-01

The Virtual Family computational whole-body anatomical human models were originally developed for electromagnetic (EM) exposure evaluations, in particular to study how absorption of radiofrequency radiation from external sources depends on anatomy. However, the models immediately garnered much broader interest and are now applied by over 300 research groups, many from medical applications research fields. In a first step, the Virtual Family was expanded to the Virtual Population to provide considerably broader population coverage with the inclusion of models of both sexes ranging in age from 5 to 84 years old. Although these models have proven to be invaluable for EM dosimetry, it became evident that significantly enhanced models are needed for reliable effectiveness and safety evaluations of diagnostic and therapeutic applications, including medical implants safety. This paper describes the research and development performed to obtain anatomical models that meet the requirements necessary for medical implant safety assessment applications. These include implementation of quality control procedures, re-segmentation at higher resolution, more-consistent tissue assignments, enhanced surface processing and numerous anatomical refinements. Several tools were developed to enhance the functionality of the models, including discretization tools, posing tools to expand the posture space covered, and multiple morphing tools, e.g., to develop pathological models or variations of existing ones. A comprehensive tissue properties database was compiled to complement the library of models. The results are a set of anatomically independent, accurate, and detailed models with smooth, yet feature-rich and topologically conforming surfaces. The models are therefore suited for the creation of unstructured meshes, and the possible applications of the models are extended to a wider range of solvers and physics. The impact of these improvements is shown for the MRI exposure of an adult woman with an orthopedic spinal implant. Future developments include the functionalization of the models for specific physical and physiological modeling tasks.

Virginia Higher Education Performance Funding Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Virginia State Council of Higher Education, Richmond.

This report reviews the proposed Virginia Higher Education Performance Funding Model. It includes an overview of the proposed funding model, examples of likely funding scenarios (including determination of block grants, assumptions underlying performance funding for four-year and two-year institutions); information on deregulation/decentralization…

Nick Kincaid | NREL

Science.gov Websites

from Colorado School of Mines. His research interests include optical modeling, computational fluid dynamics, and heat transfer. His work involves optical performance modeling of concentrating solar power experience includes developing thermal and optical models of CSP components at Norwich Solar Technologies

Bridging the gap between habitat-modeling research and bird conservation with dynamic landscape and population models

Treesearch

Frank R., III Thompson

2009-01-01

Habitat models are widely used in bird conservation planning to assess current habitat or populations and to evaluate management alternatives. These models include species-habitat matrix or database models, habitat suitability models, and statistical models that predict abundance. While extremely useful, these approaches have some limitations.

Integrated research in constitutive modelling at elevated temperatures, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haisler, W. E.; Allen, D. H.

1986-01-01

Four current viscoplastic models are compared experimentally with Inconel 718 at 1100 F. A series of tests were performed to create a sufficient data base from which to evaluate material constants. The models used include Bodner's anisotropic model; Krieg, Swearengen, and Rhode's model; Schmidt and Miller's model; and Walker's exponential model.

The Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Problem and Its Underlying Integrable Dynamics: An Approach Through Lyapunov Exponents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benettin, G.; Pasquali, S.; Ponno, A.

2018-05-01

FPU models, in dimension one, are perturbations either of the linear model or of the Toda model; perturbations of the linear model include the usual β -model, perturbations of Toda include the usual α +β model. In this paper we explore and compare two families, or hierarchies, of FPU models, closer and closer to either the linear or the Toda model, by computing numerically, for each model, the maximal Lyapunov exponent χ . More precisely, we consider statistically typical trajectories and study the asymptotics of χ for large N (the number of particles) and small ɛ (the specific energy E / N), and find, for all models, asymptotic power laws χ ˜eq Cɛ ^a, C and a depending on the model. The asymptotics turns out to be, in general, rather slow, and producing accurate results requires a great computational effort. We also revisit and extend the analytic computation of χ introduced by Casetti, Livi and Pettini, originally formulated for the β -model. With great evidence the theory extends successfully to all models of the linear hierarchy, but not to models close to Toda.

JEDI Coal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Coal Model JEDI Coal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Coal Model allow users to estimate economic development impacts from coal projects and includes default information that can

Calibration of Complex Subsurface Reaction Models Using a Surrogate-Model Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Application of model assessment techniques to complex subsurface reaction models involves numerous difficulties, including non-trivial model selection, parameter non-uniqueness, and excessive computational burden. To overcome these difficulties, this study introduces SAMM (Simult...

Specification, testing, and interpretation of gene-by-measured-environment interaction models in the presence of gene-environment correlation

PubMed Central

Rathouz, Paul J.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Lee Rodgers, Joseph; Waldman, Irwin D.; Lahey, Benjamin B.

2009-01-01

Purcell (2002) proposed a bivariate biometric model for testing and quantifying the interaction between latent genetic influences and measured environments in the presence of gene-environment correlation. Purcell’s model extends the Cholesky model to include gene-environment interaction. We examine a number of closely-related alternative models that do not involve gene-environment interaction but which may fit the data as well Purcell’s model. Because failure to consider these alternatives could lead to spurious detection of gene-environment interaction, we propose alternative models for testing gene-environment interaction in the presence of gene-environment correlation, including one based on the correlated factors model. In addition, we note mathematical errors in the calculation of effect size via variance components in Purcell’s model. We propose a statistical method for deriving and interpreting variance decompositions that are true to the fitted model. PMID:18293078

Electromagnetic interference modeling and suppression techniques in variable-frequency drive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Le; Wang, Shuo; Feng, Jianghua

2017-11-01

Electromagnetic interference (EMI) causes electromechanical damage to the motors and degrades the reliability of variable-frequency drive (VFD) systems. Unlike fundamental frequency components in motor drive systems, high-frequency EMI noise, coupled with the parasitic parameters of the trough system, are difficult to analyze and reduce. In this article, EMI modeling techniques for different function units in a VFD system, including induction motors, motor bearings, and rectifierinverters, are reviewed and evaluated in terms of applied frequency range, model parameterization, and model accuracy. The EMI models for the motors are categorized based on modeling techniques and model topologies. Motor bearing and shaft models are also reviewed, and techniques that are used to eliminate bearing current are evaluated. Modeling techniques for conventional rectifierinverter systems are also summarized. EMI noise suppression techniques, including passive filter, Wheatstone bridge balance, active filter, and optimized modulation, are reviewed and compared based on the VFD system models.

Estimating Additive and Non-Additive Genetic Variances and Predicting Genetic Merits Using Genome-Wide Dense Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Markers

PubMed Central

Su, Guosheng; Christensen, Ole F.; Ostersen, Tage; Henryon, Mark; Lund, Mogens S.

2012-01-01

Non-additive genetic variation is usually ignored when genome-wide markers are used to study the genetic architecture and genomic prediction of complex traits in human, wild life, model organisms or farm animals. However, non-additive genetic effects may have an important contribution to total genetic variation of complex traits. This study presented a genomic BLUP model including additive and non-additive genetic effects, in which additive and non-additive genetic relation matrices were constructed from information of genome-wide dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. In addition, this study for the first time proposed a method to construct dominance relationship matrix using SNP markers and demonstrated it in detail. The proposed model was implemented to investigate the amounts of additive genetic, dominance and epistatic variations, and assessed the accuracy and unbiasedness of genomic predictions for daily gain in pigs. In the analysis of daily gain, four linear models were used: 1) a simple additive genetic model (MA), 2) a model including both additive and additive by additive epistatic genetic effects (MAE), 3) a model including both additive and dominance genetic effects (MAD), and 4) a full model including all three genetic components (MAED). Estimates of narrow-sense heritability were 0.397, 0.373, 0.379 and 0.357 for models MA, MAE, MAD and MAED, respectively. Estimated dominance variance and additive by additive epistatic variance accounted for 5.6% and 9.5% of the total phenotypic variance, respectively. Based on model MAED, the estimate of broad-sense heritability was 0.506. Reliabilities of genomic predicted breeding values for the animals without performance records were 28.5%, 28.8%, 29.2% and 29.5% for models MA, MAE, MAD and MAED, respectively. In addition, models including non-additive genetic effects improved unbiasedness of genomic predictions. PMID:23028912

State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

2016-01-01

SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of landscape dynamics.

The mystery of altruism and transcultural nursing.

PubMed

Dowd, Steven; Davidhizar, Ruth; Giger, Joyce Newman

2007-01-01

Why do some individuals choose the professions they do? Is it for altruistic reasons? This article examines this question from the standpoints of sociobiology, evolutionary biology, game theory, and memetics. Implications for transcultural nursing are included. The Giger-Davidhizar Transcultural Assessment Model is presented as a nursing model and might explain altruism even beyond other models. An overview of the Giger-Davidhizar Transcultural Assessment Model is included.

Extension of the ADC Charge-Collection Model to Include Multiple Junctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, Larry D.

2011-01-01

The ADC model is a charge-collection model derived for simple p-n junction silicon diodes having a single reverse-biased p-n junction at one end and an ideal substrate contact at the other end. The present paper extends the model to include multiple junctions, and the goal is to estimate how collected charge is shared by the different junctions.

Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 21, Material Disposal Area T

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stauffer, Philip H.; Levitt, Daniel G.; Miller, Terry Ann

2017-02-09

This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Three attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with thismore » report.« less

Liquid propulsion turbomachinery model testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdaniels, David M.; Snellgrove, Lauren M.

1992-01-01

For the past few years an extensive experimental program to understand the fluid dynamics of the Space Shuttle Main Engine hot gas manifold has been in progress. This program includes models of the Phase II and II+ manifolds for each of the air and water flow facilities, as well as two different turbine flow paths and two simulated power levels for each manifold. All models are full-scale (geometric). The water models are constructed partially of acrylic to allow flow visualization. The intent of this paper is to discuss the concept, including the test objectives, facilities, and models, and to summarize the data for an example configuration, including static pressure data, flow visualization, and the solution of a specific flow problem.

The Application of Various Nonlinear Models to Describe Academic Growth Trajectories: An Empirical Analysis Using Four-Wave Longitudinal Achievement Data from a Large Urban School District

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Tacksoo

2012-01-01

This study introduced various nonlinear growth models, including the quadratic conventional polynomial model, the fractional polynomial model, the Sigmoid model, the growth model with negative exponential functions, the multidimensional scaling technique, and the unstructured growth curve model. It investigated which growth models effectively…

A hierarchy for modeling high speed propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T.; Deabreu, Alex

1991-01-01

General research efforts on reduced order propulsion models for control systems design are overviewed. Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems are discussed including internal flow propulsion systems that do not contain rotating machinery such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. The discussion is separated into four sections: (1) computational fluid dynamics model for the entire nonlinear system or high order nonlinear models; (2) high order linearized model derived from fundamental physics; (3) low order linear models obtained from other high order models; and (4) low order nonlinear models. Included are special considerations on any relevant control system designs. The methods discussed are for the quasi-one dimensional Euler equations of gasdynamic flow. The essential nonlinear features represented are large amplitude nonlinear waves, moving normal shocks, hammershocks, subsonic combustion via heat addition, temperature dependent gases, detonation, and thermal choking.

A model for rotorcraft flying qualities studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittal, Manoj; Costello, Mark F.

1993-01-01

This paper outlines the development of a mathematical model that is expected to be useful for rotorcraft flying qualities research. A computer model is presented that can be applied to a range of different rotorcraft configurations. The algorithm computes vehicle trim and a linear state-space model of the aircraft. The trim algorithm uses non linear optimization theory to solve the nonlinear algebraic trim equations. The linear aircraft equations consist of an airframe model and a flight control system dynamic model. The airframe model includes coupled rotor and fuselage rigid body dynamics and aerodynamics. The aerodynamic model for the rotors utilizes blade element theory and a three state dynamic inflow model. Aerodynamics of the fuselage and fuselage empennages are included. The linear state-space description for the flight control system is developed using standard block diagram data.

Modeling the Restraint of Liquid Jets by Surface Tension in Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chato, David J.; Jacqmim, David A.

2001-01-01

An axisymmetric phase field model is developed and used to model surface tension forces on liquid jets in microgravity. The previous work in this area is reviewed and a baseline drop tower experiment selected 'for model comparison. A mathematical model is developed which includes a free surface. a symmetric centerline and wall boundaries with given contact angles. The model is solved numerically with a compact fourth order stencil on a equally spaced axisymmetric grid. After grid convergence studies, a grid is selected and all drop tower tests modeled. Agreement was assessed by comparing predicted and measured free surface rise. Trend wise agreement is good but agreement in magnitude is only fair. Suspected sources of disagreement are suspected to be lack of a turbulence model and the existence of slosh baffles in the experiment which were not included in the model.

Continuing Education: The Emergence of a Functioning Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graziano, John A.; Roberts, Elizabeth H.

1980-01-01

The basic models of mandated, postlicensing, educational activity for professionals are reviewed including: (1) podiatry model (course content, mode of delivery, lecturer credentials, and administrative controls); (2) continuing competence model; and (3) peer review model. The podiatry model is thought to be the most logical, expedient, and…

Python scripting in the nengo simulator.

PubMed

Stewart, Terrence C; Tripp, Bryan; Eliasmith, Chris

2009-01-01

Nengo (http://nengo.ca) is an open-source neural simulator that has been greatly enhanced by the recent addition of a Python script interface. Nengo provides a wide range of features that are useful for physiological simulations, including unique features that facilitate development of population-coding models using the neural engineering framework (NEF). This framework uses information theory, signal processing, and control theory to formalize the development of large-scale neural circuit models. Notably, it can also be used to determine the synaptic weights that underlie observed network dynamics and transformations of represented variables. Nengo provides rich NEF support, and includes customizable models of spike generation, muscle dynamics, synaptic plasticity, and synaptic integration, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. All aspects of Nengo models are accessible via the Python interface, allowing for programmatic creation of models, inspection and modification of neural parameters, and automation of model evaluation. Since Nengo combines Python and Java, it can also be integrated with any existing Java or 100% Python code libraries. Current work includes connecting neural models in Nengo with existing symbolic cognitive models, creating hybrid systems that combine detailed neural models of specific brain regions with higher-level models of remaining brain areas. Such hybrid models can provide (1) more realistic boundary conditions for the neural components, and (2) more realistic sub-components for the larger cognitive models.

Python Scripting in the Nengo Simulator

PubMed Central

Stewart, Terrence C.; Tripp, Bryan; Eliasmith, Chris

2008-01-01

Nengo (http://nengo.ca) is an open-source neural simulator that has been greatly enhanced by the recent addition of a Python script interface. Nengo provides a wide range of features that are useful for physiological simulations, including unique features that facilitate development of population-coding models using the neural engineering framework (NEF). This framework uses information theory, signal processing, and control theory to formalize the development of large-scale neural circuit models. Notably, it can also be used to determine the synaptic weights that underlie observed network dynamics and transformations of represented variables. Nengo provides rich NEF support, and includes customizable models of spike generation, muscle dynamics, synaptic plasticity, and synaptic integration, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. All aspects of Nengo models are accessible via the Python interface, allowing for programmatic creation of models, inspection and modification of neural parameters, and automation of model evaluation. Since Nengo combines Python and Java, it can also be integrated with any existing Java or 100% Python code libraries. Current work includes connecting neural models in Nengo with existing symbolic cognitive models, creating hybrid systems that combine detailed neural models of specific brain regions with higher-level models of remaining brain areas. Such hybrid models can provide (1) more realistic boundary conditions for the neural components, and (2) more realistic sub-components for the larger cognitive models. PMID:19352442

An Approach to Comprehensive and Sustainable Solar Wind Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Boblitt, J. M.; Wiegand, C.

2017-12-01

The number of models of the corona and inner heliosphere and of their updates and upgrades grows steadily, as does the number and character of the model inputs. Maintaining up to date validation of these models, in the face of this constant model evolution, is a necessary but very labor intensive activity. In the last year alone, both NASA's LWS program and the CCMC's ongoing support of model forecasting activities at NOAA SWPC have sought model validation reports on the quality of all aspects of the community's coronal and heliospheric models, including both ambient and CME related wind solutions at L1. In this presentation I will give a brief review of the community's previous model validation results of L1 wind representation. I will discuss the semi-automated web based system we are constructing at the CCMC to present comparative visualizations of all interesting aspects of the solutions from competing models.This system is designed to be easily queried to provide the essential comprehensive inputs to repeat andupdate previous validation studies and support extensions to them. I will illustrate this by demonstrating how the system is being used to support the CCMC/LWS Model Assessment Forum teams focused on the ambient and time dependent corona and solar wind, including CME arrival time and IMF Bz.I will also discuss plans to extend the system to include results from the Forum teams addressing SEP model validation.

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Lung Function: Development and Validation in the UK Biobank Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Johansson, Mattias; Brennan, Paul

2017-03-10

Purpose Several lung cancer risk prediction models have been developed, but none to date have assessed the predictive ability of lung function in a population-based cohort. We sought to develop and internally validate a model incorporating lung function using data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Methods This analysis included 502,321 participants without a previous diagnosis of lung cancer, predominantly between 40 and 70 years of age. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate the 2-year probability of lung cancer, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models included predictors previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk, including sex, variables related to smoking history and nicotine addiction, medical history, family history of lung cancer, and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]). Results During accumulated follow-up of 1,469,518 person-years, there were 738 lung cancer diagnoses. A model incorporating all predictors had excellent discrimination (concordance (c)-statistic [95% CI] = 0.85 [0.82 to 0.87]). Internal validation suggested that the model will discriminate well when applied to new data (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.84). The full model, including FEV1, also had modestly superior discriminatory power than one that was designed solely on the basis of questionnaire variables (c-statistic = 0.84 [0.82 to 0.86]; optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.83; p FEV1 = 3.4 × 10 -13 ). The full model had better discrimination than standard lung cancer screening eligibility criteria (c-statistic = 0.66 [0.64 to 0.69]). Conclusion A risk prediction model that includes lung function has strong predictive ability, which could improve eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening programs.

Including the effects of filamentous bulking sludge during the simulation of wastewater treatment plants using a risk assessment model.

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Comas, Joaquim; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Gernaey, Krist V; Rosen, Christian

2009-10-01

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate how including the occurrence of filamentous bulking sludge in a secondary clarifier model will affect the predicted process performance during the simulation of WWTPs. The IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) is hereby used as a simulation case study. Practically, the proposed approach includes a risk assessment model based on a knowledge-based decision tree to detect favourable conditions for the development of filamentous bulking sludge. Once such conditions are detected, the settling characteristics of the secondary clarifier model are automatically changed during the simulation by modifying the settling model parameters to mimic the effect of growth of filamentous bacteria. The simulation results demonstrate that including effects of filamentous bulking in the secondary clarifier model results in a more realistic plant performance. Particularly, during the periods when the conditions for the development of filamentous bulking sludge are favourable--leading to poor activated sludge compaction, low return and waste TSS concentrations and difficulties in maintaining the biomass in the aeration basins--a subsequent reduction in overall pollution removal efficiency is observed. Also, a scenario analysis is conducted to examine i) the influence of sludge retention time (SRT), the external recirculation flow rate (Q(r)) and the air flow rate in the bioreactor (modelled as k(L)a) as factors promoting bulking sludge, and ii) the effect on the model predictions when the settling properties are changed due to a possible proliferation of filamentous microorganisms. Finally, the potentially adverse effects of certain operational procedures are highlighted, since such effects are normally not considered by state-of-the-art models that do not include microbiology-related solids separation problems.

Precision medicine in oncology: New practice models and roles for oncology pharmacists.

PubMed

Walko, Christine; Kiel, Patrick J; Kolesar, Jill

2016-12-01

Three different precision medicine practice models developed by oncology pharmacists are described, including strategies for implementation and recommendations for educating the next generation of oncology pharmacy practitioners. Oncology is unique in that somatic mutations can both drive the development of a tumor and serve as a therapeutic target for treating the cancer. Precision medicine practice models are a forum through which interprofessional teams, including pharmacists, discuss tumor somatic mutations to guide patient-specific treatment. The University of Wisconsin, Indiana University, and Moffit Cancer Center have implemented precision medicine practice models developed and led by oncology pharmacists. Different practice models, including a clinic, a clinical consultation service, and a molecular tumor board (MTB), were adopted to enhance integration into health systems and payment structures. Although the practice models vary, commonalities of three models include leadership by the clinical pharmacist, specific therapeutic recommendations, procurement of medications for off-label use, and a research component. These three practice models function as interprofessional training sites for pharmacy and medical students and residents, providing an important training resource at these institutions. Key implementation strategies include interprofessional involvement, institutional support, integration into clinical workflow, and selection of model by payer mix. MTBs are a pathway for clinical implementation of genomic medicine in oncology and are an emerging practice model for oncology pharmacists. Because pharmacists must be prepared to participate fully in contemporary practice, oncology pharmacy residents must be trained in genomic oncology, schools of pharmacy should expand precision medicine and genomics education, and opportunities for continuing education in precision medicine should be made available to practicing pharmacists. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

AAC Modeling Intervention Research Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sennott, Samuel C.; Light, Janice C.; McNaughton, David

2016-01-01

A systematic review of research on the effects of interventions that include communication partner modeling of aided augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) on the language acquisition of individuals with complex communication needs was conducted. Included studies incorporated AAC modeling as a primary component of the intervention,…

Application of the kappa-omega Turbulence Model to Quasi-Three-Dimensional Turbomachinery Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chima, Rodrick V.

1996-01-01

Many computational fluid dynamics codes for turbomachinery use the Baldwin-Lomax (B-L) turbulence model. It is easy to implement in two dimensions and works well for predicting overall turbomachinery performance. However, it is awkward to implement in three dimensions, often has difficulty finding the length scale, has a crude transition model, and neglects freestream turbulence, surface roughness, and mass injection. The kappa-omega model developed by Wilcox is an appealing alternative for several reasons. First, it is the only two-equation model that can be integrated to the wall without requiring damping functions or the distance to the wall, and hence, should behave well numerically. Second, the effects of freestream turbulence, surface roughness, and mass injection are easily included in the model. Finally, transition can be simulated using the low Reynolds number version of the model. Menter applied the kappa-model to external flows and showed very good results for flows with adverse pressure gradients. Liu and Zheng described their implementation of the kappa-model in a cascade code that included an area change term to account for endwall convergence. They validated the model for a flat plate, and compared the B-L and kappa-models to measured surface pressures for a low-pressure turbine cascade. Since they did not use the low Reynolds number version of the model, their results showed problems resulting from early transition. In this Note the low Reynolds number kappa-model was incorporated in the author's quasi-three-dimensional turbomachinery analysis code. The code includes the effects of rotation, radius change, and stream-surface thickness variation, and also includes the B-L turbulence model. The kappa-omega model was implemented using many of Menter's recommendations and an implicit approximate-factorization scheme described by Baldwin and Barth. The model was tested for a transonic compressor with rotation and variable stream-surface radius and height, and for a transonic turbine vane with transition and heat transfer. Results were compared to the B-L model and to experimental data.

Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

2017-07-15

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p < 0.0001). The alternative predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Why involve families in acute mental healthcare? A collaborative conceptual review

PubMed Central

Sandhu, Sima; Giacco, Domenico; Barrett, Katherine; Bennison, Gerry; Collinson, Sue; Priebe, Stefan

2017-01-01

Objectives Family involvement is strongly recommended in clinical guidelines but suffers from poor implementation. To explore this topic at a conceptual level, a multidisciplinary review team including academics, clinicians and individuals with lived experience undertook a review to explore the theoretical background of family involvement models in acute mental health treatment and how this relates to their delivery. Design A conceptual review was undertaken, including a systematic search and narrative synthesis. Included family models were mapped onto the most commonly referenced underlying theories: the diathesis–stress model, systems theories and postmodern theories of mental health. Common components of the models were summarised and compared. Lastly, a thematic analysis was undertaken to explore the role of patients and families in the delivery of the approaches. Setting General adult acute mental health treatment. Results Six distinct family involvement models were identified: Calgary Family Assessment and Intervention Models, ERIC (Equipe Rapide d’Intervention de Crise), Family Psychoeducation Models, Family Systems Approach, Open Dialogue and the Somerset Model. Findings indicated that despite wide variation in the theoretical models underlying family involvement models, there were many commonalities in their components, such as a focus on communication, language use and joint decision-making. Thematic analysis of the role of patients and families identified several issues for implementation. This included potential harms that could emerge during delivery of the models, such as imposing linear ‘patient–carer’ relationships and the risk of perceived coercion. Conclusions We conclude that future staff training may benefit from discussing the chosen family involvement model within the context of other theories of mental health. This may help to clarify the underlying purpose of family involvement and address the diverse needs and world views of patients, families and professionals in acute settings. PMID:28963308

Simulation Modelling in Healthcare: An Umbrella Review of Systematic Literature Reviews.

PubMed

Salleh, Syed; Thokala, Praveen; Brennan, Alan; Hughes, Ruby; Booth, Andrew

2017-09-01

Numerous studies examine simulation modelling in healthcare. These studies present a bewildering array of simulation techniques and applications, making it challenging to characterise the literature. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the level of activity of simulation modelling in healthcare and the key themes. We performed an umbrella review of systematic literature reviews of simulation modelling in healthcare. Searches were conducted of academic databases (JSTOR, Scopus, PubMed, IEEE, SAGE, ACM, Wiley Online Library, ScienceDirect) and grey literature sources, enhanced by citation searches. The articles were included if they performed a systematic review of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare. After quality assessment of all included articles, data were extracted on numbers of studies included in each review, types of applications, techniques used for simulation modelling, data sources and simulation software. The search strategy yielded a total of 117 potential articles. Following sifting, 37 heterogeneous reviews were included. Most reviews achieved moderate quality rating on a modified AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool used to Assess systematic Reviews) checklist. All the review articles described the types of applications used for simulation modelling; 15 reviews described techniques used for simulation modelling; three reviews described data sources used for simulation modelling; and six reviews described software used for simulation modelling. The remaining reviews either did not report or did not provide enough detail for the data to be extracted. Simulation modelling techniques have been used for a wide range of applications in healthcare, with a variety of software tools and data sources. The number of reviews published in recent years suggest an increased interest in simulation modelling in healthcare.

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses

PubMed Central

Soares, Marta O.; Palmer, Stephen; Ades, Anthony E.; Harrison, David; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Rowan, Kathy M.

2015-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk. PMID:25712447

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses.

PubMed

Welton, Nicky J; Soares, Marta O; Palmer, Stephen; Ades, Anthony E; Harrison, David; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Rowan, Kathy M

2015-07-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdes, Paul J.; Armstrong, Edward; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Bradshaw, Catherine D.; Bragg, Fran; Crucifix, Michel; Davies-Barnard, Taraka; Day, Jonathan J.; Farnsworth, Alex; Gordon, Chris; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kennedy, Alan T.; Lord, Natalie S.; Lunt, Dan J.; Marzocchi, Alice; Parry, Louise M.; Pope, Vicky; Roberts, William H. G.; Stone, Emma J.; Tourte, Gregory J. L.; Williams, Jonny H. T.

2017-10-01

Understanding natural and anthropogenic climate change processes involves using computational models that represent the main components of the Earth system: the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. These models have become increasingly computationally expensive as resolution is increased and more complex process representations are included. However, to gain robust insight into how climate may respond to a given forcing, and to meaningfully quantify the associated uncertainty, it is often required to use either or both ensemble approaches and very long integrations. For this reason, more computationally efficient models can be very valuable tools. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of the suite of climate models based around the HadCM3 coupled general circulation model. This model was developed at the UK Met Office and has been heavily used during the last 15 years for a range of future (and past) climate change studies, but has now been largely superseded for many scientific studies by more recently developed models. However, it continues to be extensively used by various institutions, including the BRIDGE (Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment) research group at the University of Bristol, who have made modest adaptations to the base HadCM3 model over time. These adaptations mean that the original documentation is not entirely representative, and several other relatively undocumented configurations are in use. We therefore describe the key features of a number of configurations of the HadCM3 climate model family, which together make up HadCM3@Bristol version 1.0. In order to differentiate variants that have undergone development at BRIDGE, we have introduced the letter B into the model nomenclature. We include descriptions of the atmosphere-only model (HadAM3B), the coupled model with a low-resolution ocean (HadCM3BL), the high-resolution atmosphere-only model (HadAM3BH), and the regional model (HadRM3B). These also include three versions of the land surface scheme. By comparing with observational datasets, we show that these models produce a good representation of many aspects of the climate system, including the land and sea surface temperatures, precipitation, ocean circulation, and vegetation. This evaluation, combined with the relatively fast computational speed (up to 1000 times faster than some CMIP6 models), motivates continued development and scientific use of the HadCM3B family of coupled climate models, predominantly for quantifying uncertainty and for long multi-millennial-scale simulations.

A single factor underlies the metabolic syndrome: a confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

Pladevall, Manel; Singal, Bonita; Williams, L Keoki; Brotons, Carlos; Guyer, Heidi; Sadurni, Josep; Falces, Carles; Serrano-Rios, Manuel; Gabriel, Rafael; Shaw, Jonathan E; Zimmet, Paul Z; Haffner, Steven

2006-01-01

Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to test the hypothesis that the components of the metabolic syndrome are manifestations of a single common factor. Three different datasets were used to test and validate the model. The Spanish and Mauritian studies included 207 men and 203 women and 1,411 men and 1,650 women, respectively. A third analytical dataset including 847 men was obtained from a previously published CFA of a U.S. population. The one-factor model included the metabolic syndrome core components (central obesity, insulin resistance, blood pressure, and lipid measurements). We also tested an expanded one-factor model that included uric acid and leptin levels. Finally, we used CFA to compare the goodness of fit of one-factor models with the fit of two previously published four-factor models. The simplest one-factor model showed the best goodness-of-fit indexes (comparative fit index 1, root mean-square error of approximation 0.00). Comparisons of one-factor with four-factor models in the three datasets favored the one-factor model structure. The selection of variables to represent the different metabolic syndrome components and model specification explained why previous exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, respectively, failed to identify a single factor for the metabolic syndrome. These analyses support the current clinical definition of the metabolic syndrome, as well as the existence of a single factor that links all of the core components.

Aerodynamics model for a generic ASTOVL lift-fan aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birckelbaw, Lourdes G.; Mcneil, Walter E.; Wardwell, Douglas A.

1995-01-01

This report describes the aerodynamics model used in a simulation model of an advanced short takeoff and vertical landing (ASTOVL) lift-fan fighter aircraft. The simulation model was developed for use in piloted evaluations of transition and hover flight regimes, so that only low speed (M approximately 0.2) aerodynamics are included in the mathematical model. The aerodynamic model includes the power-off aerodynamic forces and moments and the propulsion system induced aerodynamic effects, including ground effects. The power-off aerodynamics data were generated using the U.S. Air Force Stability and Control Digital DATCOM program and a NASA Ames in-house graphics program called VORVIEW which allows the user to easily analyze arbitrary conceptual aircraft configurations using the VORLAX program. The jet-induced data were generated using the prediction methods of R. E. Kuhn et al., as referenced in this report.

Modelface: an Application Programming Interface (API) for Homology Modeling Studies Using Modeller Software

PubMed Central

Sakhteman, Amirhossein; Zare, Bijan

2016-01-01

An interactive application, Modelface, was presented for Modeller software based on windows platform. The application is able to run all steps of homology modeling including pdb to fasta generation, running clustal, model building and loop refinement. Other modules of modeler including energy calculation, energy minimization and the ability to make single point mutations in the PDB structures are also implemented inside Modelface. The API is a simple batch based application with no memory occupation and is free of charge for academic use. The application is also able to repair missing atom types in the PDB structures making it suitable for many molecular modeling studies such as docking and molecular dynamic simulation. Some successful instances of modeling studies using Modelface are also reported. PMID:28243276

APPLE - An aeroelastic analysis system for turbomachines and propfans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, T. S. R.; Bakhle, Milind A.; Srivastava, R.; Mehmed, Oral

1992-01-01

This paper reviews aeroelastic analysis methods for propulsion elements (advanced propellers, compressors and turbines) being developed and used at NASA Lewis Research Center. These aeroelastic models include both structural and aerodynamic components. The structural models include the typical section model, the beam model with and without disk flexibility, and the finite element blade model with plate bending elements. The aerodynamic models are based on the solution of equations ranging from the two-dimensional linear potential equation for a cascade to the three-dimensional Euler equations for multi-blade configurations. Typical results are presented for each aeroelastic model. Suggestions for further research are indicated. All the available aeroelastic models and analysis methods are being incorporated into a unified computer program named APPLE (Aeroelasticity Program for Propulsion at LEwis).

ECOLOGICAL THEORY. A general consumer-resource population model.

PubMed

Lafferty, Kevin D; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J; Dobson, Andrew P; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M

2015-08-21

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Cellular-based modeling of oscillatory dynamics in brain networks.

PubMed

Skinner, Frances K

2012-08-01

Oscillatory, population activities have long been known to occur in our brains during different behavioral states. We know that many different cell types exist and that they contribute in distinct ways to the generation of these activities. I review recent papers that involve cellular-based models of brain networks, most of which include theta, gamma and sharp wave-ripple activities. To help organize the modeling work, I present it from a perspective of three different types of cellular-based modeling: 'Generic', 'Biophysical' and 'Linking'. Cellular-based modeling is taken to encompass the four features of experiment, model development, theory/analyses, and model usage/computation. The three modeling types are shown to include these features and interactions in different ways. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CAD-model-based vision for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shapiro, Linda G.

1988-01-01

A pose acquisition system operating in space must be able to perform well in a variety of different applications including automated guidance and inspections tasks with many different, but known objects. Since the space station is being designed with automation in mind, there will be CAD models of all the objects, including the station itself. The construction of vision models and procedures directly from the CAD models is the goal of this project. The system that is being designed and implementing must convert CAD models to vision models, predict visible features from a given view point from the vision models, construct view classes representing views of the objects, and use the view class model thus derived to rapidly determine the pose of the object from single images and/or stereo pairs.

Revisiting the pole tide for and from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Shailen; Wahr, John; Beckley, Brian

2015-12-01

Satellite altimeter sea surface height observations include the geocentric displacements caused by the pole tide, namely the response of the solid Earth and oceans to polar motion. Most users of these data remove these effects using a model that was developed more than 20 years ago. We describe two improvements to the pole tide model for satellite altimeter measurements. Firstly, we recommend an approach that improves the model for the response of the oceans by including the effects of self-gravitation, loading, and mass conservation. Our recommended approach also specifically includes the previously ignored displacement of the solid Earth due to the load of the ocean response, and includes the effects of geocenter motion. Altogether, this improvement amplifies the modeled geocentric pole tide by 15 %, or up to 2 mm of sea surface height displacement. We validate this improvement using two decades of satellite altimeter measurements. Secondly, we recommend that the altimetry pole tide model exclude geocentric sea surface displacements resulting from the long-term drift in polar motion. The response to this particular component of polar motion requires a more rigorous approach than is used by conventional models. We show that erroneously including the response to this component of polar motion in the pole tide model impacts interpretation of regional sea level rise by ± 0.25 mm/year.

Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

EPA Science Inventory

A commonly used landscape model to simulate wetland change – the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM) – has rarely been explicitly assessed for its prediction accuracy. Here, we evaluated this model using recently proposed neutral models – including the random constraint matc...

Viral kinetic modeling: state of the art

DOE PAGES

Canini, Laetitia; Perelson, Alan S.

2014-06-25

Viral kinetic modeling has led to increased understanding of the within host dynamics of viral infections and the effects of therapy. Here we review recent developments in the modeling of viral infection kinetics with emphasis on two infectious diseases: hepatitis C and influenza. We review how viral kinetic modeling has evolved from simple models of viral infections treated with a drug or drug cocktail with an assumed constant effectiveness to models that incorporate drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as phenomenological models that simply assume drugs have time varying-effectiveness. We also discuss multiscale models that include intracellular events in viralmore » replication, models of drug-resistance, models that include innate and adaptive immune responses and models that incorporate cell-to-cell spread of infection. Overall, viral kinetic modeling has provided new insights into the understanding of the disease progression and the modes of action of several drugs. In conclusion, we expect that viral kinetic modeling will be increasingly used in the coming years to optimize drug regimens in order to improve therapeutic outcomes and treatment tolerability for infectious diseases.« less

Relating Factor Models for Longitudinal Data to Quasi-Simplex and NARMA Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2005-01-01

In this article we show the one-factor model can be rewritten as a quasi-simplex model. Using this result along with addition theorems from time series analysis, we describe a common general model, the nonstationary autoregressive moving average (NARMA) model, that includes as a special case, any latent variable model with continuous indicators…

Alternative Models for the Co-operative Governance of Teacher Education Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sagan, Edgar L.; Smith, Barbara G.

This paper reviews and criticizes existing models of governance of teacher education and proposes alternative ones. Chapter I defines three models of governance including a) a bureaucratic model; b) a collaborative model; and c) a systems analysis model which is used to plan new models in the final chapters. Chapter II deals with the current…

Tracking Skill Acquisition with Cognitive Diagnosis Models: A Higher-Order, Hidden Markov Model with Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Shiyu; Yang, Yan; Culpepper, Steven Andrew; Douglas, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

A family of learning models that integrates a cognitive diagnostic model and a higher-order, hidden Markov model in one framework is proposed. This new framework includes covariates to model skill transition in the learning environment. A Bayesian formulation is adopted to estimate parameters from a learning model. The developed methods are…

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan

2016-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the lowboom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.

Predicting recycling behaviour: Comparison of a linear regression model and a fuzzy logic model.

PubMed

Vesely, Stepan; Klöckner, Christian A; Dohnal, Mirko

2016-03-01

In this paper we demonstrate that fuzzy logic can provide a better tool for predicting recycling behaviour than the customarily used linear regression. To show this, we take a set of empirical data on recycling behaviour (N=664), which we randomly divide into two halves. The first half is used to estimate a linear regression model of recycling behaviour, and to develop a fuzzy logic model of recycling behaviour. As the first comparison, the fit of both models to the data included in estimation of the models (N=332) is evaluated. As the second comparison, predictive accuracy of both models for "new" cases (hold-out data not included in building the models, N=332) is assessed. In both cases, the fuzzy logic model significantly outperforms the regression model in terms of fit. To conclude, when accurate predictions of recycling and possibly other environmental behaviours are needed, fuzzy logic modelling seems to be a promising technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Reasoning in Upper-division Lab Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowski, Heather

2015-05-01

Modeling, which includes developing, testing, and refining models, is a central activity in physics. Well-known examples from AMO physics include everything from the Bohr model of the hydrogen atom to the Bose-Hubbard model of interacting bosons in a lattice. Modeling, while typically considered a theoretical activity, is most fully represented in the laboratory where measurements of real phenomena intersect with theoretical models, leading to refinement of models and experimental apparatus. However, experimental physicists use models in complex ways and the process is often not made explicit in physics laboratory courses. We have developed a framework to describe the modeling process in physics laboratory activities. The framework attempts to abstract and simplify the complex modeling process undertaken by expert experimentalists. The framework can be applied to understand typical processes such the modeling of the measurement tools, modeling ``black boxes,'' and signal processing. We demonstrate that the framework captures several important features of model-based reasoning in a way that can reveal common student difficulties in the lab and guide the development of curricula that emphasize modeling in the laboratory. We also use the framework to examine troubleshooting in the lab and guide students to effective methods and strategies.

Hydrodynamic Modeling for Channel and Shoreline Stabilization at Rhodes Point, Smith Island, MD

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

shorelines. Both Alternatives included the same revetment structure for protecting the south shoreline. The Coastal Modeling System (CMS, including CMS...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 6- 17 Coastal Inlets Research Program Hydrodynamic Modeling for Channel and Shoreline Stabilization at Rhodes Point...acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. Coastal Inlets Research Program ERDC/CHL TR-16-17 November 2016 Hydrodynamic Modeling for Channel and Shoreline

Modeling heart rate variability including the effect of sleep stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliński, Mateusz; Gierałtowski, Jan; Żebrowski, Jan

2016-02-01

We propose a model for heart rate variability (HRV) of a healthy individual during sleep with the assumption that the heart rate variability is predominantly a random process. Autonomic nervous system activity has different properties during different sleep stages, and this affects many physiological systems including the cardiovascular system. Different properties of HRV can be observed during each particular sleep stage. We believe that taking into account the sleep architecture is crucial for modeling the human nighttime HRV. The stochastic model of HRV introduced by Kantelhardt et al. was used as the initial starting point. We studied the statistical properties of sleep in healthy adults, analyzing 30 polysomnographic recordings, which provided realistic information about sleep architecture. Next, we generated synthetic hypnograms and included them in the modeling of nighttime RR interval series. The results of standard HRV linear analysis and of nonlinear analysis (Shannon entropy, Poincaré plots, and multiscale multifractal analysis) show that—in comparison with real data—the HRV signals obtained from our model have very similar properties, in particular including the multifractal characteristics at different time scales. The model described in this paper is discussed in the context of normal sleep. However, its construction is such that it should allow to model heart rate variability in sleep disorders. This possibility is briefly discussed.

Regression Models for Identifying Noise Sources in Magnetic Resonance Images

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongtu; Li, Yimei; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Shi, Xiaoyan; An, Hongyu; Chen, Yashen; Gao, Wei; Lin, Weili; Rowe, Daniel B.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2009-01-01

Stochastic noise, susceptibility artifacts, magnetic field and radiofrequency inhomogeneities, and other noise components in magnetic resonance images (MRIs) can introduce serious bias into any measurements made with those images. We formally introduce three regression models including a Rician regression model and two associated normal models to characterize stochastic noise in various magnetic resonance imaging modalities, including diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and functional MRI (fMRI). Estimation algorithms are introduced to maximize the likelihood function of the three regression models. We also develop a diagnostic procedure for systematically exploring MR images to identify noise components other than simple stochastic noise, and to detect discrepancies between the fitted regression models and MRI data. The diagnostic procedure includes goodness-of-fit statistics, measures of influence, and tools for graphical display. The goodness-of-fit statistics can assess the key assumptions of the three regression models, whereas measures of influence can isolate outliers caused by certain noise components, including motion artifacts. The tools for graphical display permit graphical visualization of the values for the goodness-of-fit statistic and influence measures. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate performance of these methods, and we analyze a real dataset to illustrate how our diagnostic procedure localizes subtle image artifacts by detecting intravoxel variability that is not captured by the regression models. PMID:19890478

Development of community based model of Tawanchai Center: sufficiency economy principles for community Development an applicability at Bankhambong Community, Sa-ard Sub-district, Nampong District, Khon Kaen Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Kotrmaneetaweetong, Unchana; Choopen, Hhakuan; Chowchuen, Bowornsilp

2012-11-01

The objectives of the present study are 1) to study the application of sufficiency economy philosophy in community development as a model for future application of community health care program of Tawanchai Center, 2) study the administrative model for self sufficiency economy community in Bankhambong Community, Sa-ard Sub-district, Nampong District, Khon Kaen Province. The integrated study model included qualitative research by collecting data from documents, textbook, article, report, theory concept, researches and interviewing of relevant persons and the quantitative research by collecting data from questionnaires. The findings of study included objectives for development model of sufficiency economy for understanding of people, and use the philosophy of sufficiency economy model which compose of decrease expenditure, increase income activities, saving activities, learning activities and preservation of environment and sustainable natural resources activities. Decrease in expenditure activities included household gardening, and no allurements leading to ruin. Increase in income activities included supplement occupation and appropriate use of technology. Saving activities included creating saving group in household and community level. Learning activities included community use of local wisdom, and household learnt philosophy of sufficiency economy in daily living. Preservation of environment and sustainable natural resources activities included the use of sustainable raw materials in occupation. The generosity of one another activities included helping each other and solving problems for the poor and disable persons. The community development at in Bankhambong Community, Sa-ard Sub-district, Nampong District, Khon Kaen Province followed all of the above scope and guidelines and is the model for application of sufficiency community philosophy. We recommended method for successful implementation, including the starting from group process with capability of learning to create strong and adequate knowledge to apply sufficiency economy model and cover health care.

Computational Toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

‘Computational toxicology’ is a broad term that encompasses all manner of computer-facilitated informatics, data-mining, and modeling endeavors in relation to toxicology, including exposure modeling, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, dose-response modeling, ...

Airloads, wakes, and aeroelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

1990-01-01

Fundamental considerations regarding the theory of modeling of rotary wing airloads, wakes, and aeroelasticity are presented. The topics covered are: airloads and wakes, including lifting-line theory, wake models and nonuniform inflow, free wake geometry, and blade-vortex interaction; aerodynamic and wake models for aeroelasticity, including two-dimensional unsteady aerodynamics and dynamic inflow; and airloads and structural dynamics, including comprehensive airload prediction programs. Results of calculations and correlations are presented.

Comparing Posttraumatic Stress Disorder's Symptom Structure between Deployed and Nondeployed Veterans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engdahl, Ryan M.; Elhai, Jon D.; Richardson, J. Don; Frueh, B. Christopher

2011-01-01

We tested two empirically validated 4-factor models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using the PTSD Checklist: King, Leskin, King, and Weathers' (1998) model including reexperiencing, avoidance, emotional numbing, and hyperarousal factors, and Simms, Watson, and Doebbeling's (2002) model including reexperiencing, avoidance,…

Treatment of Fragile X Syndrome with a Neuroactive Steroid

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

in the fragile X mouse model and the Drosophila (fruit fly) models of FXS that the GABAA system, including multiple receptors, is dramatically down... Drosophila (fruit fly) models of FXS that the GABAA system, including multiple receptors, is dramatically down-regulated. Ganaxolone is a drug that

Performance measures and criteria for hydrologic and water quality models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Performance measures and criteria are essential for model calibration and validation. This presentation will include a summary of one of the papers that will be included in the 2014 Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Calibration & Validation Guidelines Special Collection of the ASABE Transactions. T...

Toward a Multicultural Model of the Stress Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavin, Lesley A.; And Others

1991-01-01

Attempts to expand Lazarus and Folkman's stress model to include culture-relevant dimensions. Discusses cultural factors that influence each component of the stress model, including types and frequency of events experienced, appraisals of stressfulness of events, appraisals of available coping resources, selection of coping strategies, and…

Centrifuge Rotor Models: A Comparison of the Euler-Lagrange and the Bond Graph Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Granda, Jose J.; Ramakrishnan, Jayant; Nguyen, Louis H.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on centrifuge rotor models with a comparison using Euler-Lagrange and bond graph methods is shown. The topics include: 1) Objectives; 2) MOdeling Approach Comparisons; 3) Model Structures; and 4) Application.

40 CFR 52.1490 - Original identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... measures. (ii) A modeling analysis indicating 1982 attainment. (iii) Documentation of the modeling analysis... agencies, (ii) Additional supporting documentation for the 1982 attainment modeling analysis which included... factors for the model. (iii) A revised 1982 attainment modeling analysis and supporting documentation...

40 CFR 52.1490 - Original identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... measures. (ii) A modeling analysis indicating 1982 attainment. (iii) Documentation of the modeling analysis... agencies, (ii) Additional supporting documentation for the 1982 attainment modeling analysis which included... factors for the model. (iii) A revised 1982 attainment modeling analysis and supporting documentation...

40 CFR 52.1490 - Original identification of plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... measures. (ii) A modeling analysis indicating 1982 attainment. (iii) Documentation of the modeling analysis... agencies, (ii) Additional supporting documentation for the 1982 attainment modeling analysis which included... factors for the model. (iii) A revised 1982 attainment modeling analysis and supporting documentation...

Aspen Modeling of the Bayer Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langa, J. M.; Russell, T. G.; O'Neill, G. A.; Gacka, P.; Shah, V. B.; Stephenson, J. L.; Snyder, J. G.

The ASPEN simulator was used to model Alcoa's Pt. Comfort Bayer refinery. All areas of the refinery including the lakes and powerhouse were modeled. Each area model was designed to be run stand alone or integrated with others for a full plant model.

THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY VISUAL PLUMES MODELING SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Center for Exposure Assessment Modeling (CEAM) at the Ecosystems Research Division in Athens, Georgia develops environmental exposure models, including plume models, and provides technical assistance to model users. The mixing zone and f...

A toy terrestrial carbon flow model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parton, William J.; Running, Steven W.; Walker, Brian

1992-01-01

A generalized carbon flow model for the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world is reported. The model is a simplification of the Century model and the Forest-Biogeochemical model. Topics covered include plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling, biomes, the utility of the carbon flow model for predicting carbon dynamics under global change, and possible applications to state-and-transition models and environmentally driven global vegetation models.

Right-Sizing Statistical Models for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Wood, Phillip K.; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M.

2015-01-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to “right-size” the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting overly parsimonious models to more complex better fitting alternatives, and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically under-identified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A three-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation/covariation patterns. The orthogonal, free-curve slope-intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered as a general model which includes, as special cases, many models including the Factor Mean model (FM, McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), Repeated Measures MANOVA, and the Linear Slope Intercept (LinearSI) Growth Model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparison of several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. PMID:26237507

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Qualitative models for space system engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbus, Kenneth D.

1990-01-01

The objectives of this project were: (1) to investigate the implications of qualitative modeling techniques for problems arising in the monitoring, diagnosis, and design of Space Station subsystems and procedures; (2) to identify the issues involved in using qualitative models to enhance and automate engineering functions. These issues include representing operational criteria, fault models, alternate ontologies, and modeling continuous signals at a functional level of description; and (3) to develop a prototype collection of qualitative models for fluid and thermal systems commonly found in Space Station subsystems. Potential applications of qualitative modeling to space-systems engineering, including the notion of intelligent computer-aided engineering are summarized. Emphasis is given to determining which systems of the proposed Space Station provide the most leverage for study, given the current state of the art. Progress on using qualitative models, including development of the molecular collection ontology for reasoning about fluids, the interaction of qualitative and quantitative knowledge in analyzing thermodynamic cycles, and an experiment on building a natural language interface to qualitative reasoning is reported. Finally, some recommendations are made for future research.

A systematic review of health economic models of opioid agonist therapies in maintenance treatment of non-prescription opioid dependence.

PubMed

Chetty, Mersha; Kenworthy, James J; Langham, Sue; Walker, Andrew; Dunlop, William C N

2017-02-24

Opioid dependence is a chronic condition with substantial health, economic and social costs. The study objective was to conduct a systematic review of published health-economic models of opioid agonist therapy for non-prescription opioid dependence, to review the different modelling approaches identified, and to inform future modelling studies. Literature searches were conducted in March 2015 in eight electronic databases, supplemented by hand-searching reference lists and searches on six National Health Technology Assessment Agency websites. Studies were included if they: investigated populations that were dependent on non-prescription opioids and were receiving opioid agonist or maintenance therapy; compared any pharmacological maintenance intervention with any other maintenance regimen (including placebo or no treatment); and were health-economic models of any type. A total of 18 unique models were included. These used a range of modelling approaches, including Markov models (n = 4), decision tree with Monte Carlo simulations (n = 3), decision analysis (n = 3), dynamic transmission models (n = 3), decision tree (n = 1), cohort simulation (n = 1), Bayesian (n = 1), and Monte Carlo simulations (n = 2). Time horizons ranged from 6 months to lifetime. The most common evaluation was cost-utility analysis reporting cost per quality-adjusted life-year (n = 11), followed by cost-effectiveness analysis (n = 4), budget-impact analysis/cost comparison (n = 2) and cost-benefit analysis (n = 1). Most studies took the healthcare provider's perspective. Only a few models included some wider societal costs, such as productivity loss or costs of drug-related crime, disorder and antisocial behaviour. Costs to individuals and impacts on family and social networks were not included in any model. A relatively small number of studies of varying quality were found. Strengths and weaknesses relating to model structure, inputs and approach were identified across all the studies. There was no indication of a single standard emerging as a preferred approach. Most studies omitted societal costs, an important issue since the implications of drug abuse extend widely beyond healthcare services. Nevertheless, elements from previous models could together form a framework for future economic evaluations in opioid agonist therapy including all relevant costs and outcomes. This could more adequately support decision-making and policy development for treatment of non-prescription opioid dependence.

Summary of Expansions, Updates, and Results in GREET 2017 Suite of Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Michael; Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo

This report provides a technical summary of the expansions and updates to the 2017 release of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET®) model, including references and links to key technical documents related to these expansions and updates. The GREET 2017 release includes an updated version of the GREET1 (the fuel-cycle GREET model) and GREET2 (the vehicle-cycle GREET model), both in the Microsoft Excel platform and in the GREET.net modeling platform. Figure 1 shows the structure of the GREET Excel modeling platform. The .net platform integrates all GREET modules together seamlessly.

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variability; such characterization for PBPK model predictions represents a continuing challenge to both modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and the non-deterministic (often statistical) models, estimating their parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, and using them to make predictions and characterize uncertainty and variability. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held Oct 31-Nov 2, 2006, sought to identify the state-of-the-science in this area and recommend priorities for research and changes in practice and implementation. For the short term, these include: (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and non-deterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through more complete documentation of the model structure(s) and parameter values, the results of sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include: (1) theoretic and practical methodological impro

Multi-fluid CFD analysis in Process Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hjertager, B. H.

2017-12-01

An overview of modelling and simulation of flow processes in gas/particle and gas/liquid systems are presented. Particular emphasis is given to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that use the multi-dimensional multi-fluid techniques. Turbulence modelling strategies for gas/particle flows based on the kinetic theory for granular flows are given. Sub models for the interfacial transfer processes and chemical kinetics modelling are presented. Examples are shown for some gas/particle systems including flow and chemical reaction in risers as well as gas/liquid systems including bubble columns and stirred tanks.

Three dimensional flow field inside compressor rotor, including blade boundary layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galmes, J. M.; Pouagere, M.; Lakshminarayana, B.

1982-01-01

The Reynolds stress equation, pressure strain correlation, and dissipative terms and diffusion are discussed in relation to turbulence modelling using the Reynolds stress model. Algebraic modeling of Reynolds stresses and calculation of the boundary layer over an axial cylinder are examined with regards to the kinetic energy model for turbulence modelling. The numerical analysis of blade and hub wall boundary layers, and an experimental study of rotor blade boundary layer in an axial flow compressor rotor are discussed. The Patankar-Spalding numerical method for two dimensional boundary layers is included.

Uncertainty quantification for PZT bimorph actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravo, Nikolas; Smith, Ralph C.; Crews, John

2018-03-01

In this paper, we discuss the development of a high fidelity model for a PZT bimorph actuator used for micro-air vehicles, which includes the Robobee. We developed a high-fidelity model for the actuator using the homogenized energy model (HEM) framework, which quantifies the nonlinear, hysteretic, and rate-dependent behavior inherent to PZT in dynamic operating regimes. We then discussed an inverse problem on the model. We included local and global sensitivity analysis of the parameters in the high-fidelity model. Finally, we will discuss the results of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification on the HEM.

Developing and upgrading of solar system thermal energy storage simulation models. Technical progress report, March 1, 1979-February 29, 1980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhn, J K; von Fuchs, G F; Zob, A P

1980-05-01

Two water tank component simulation models have been selected and upgraded. These models are called the CSU Model and the Extended SOLSYS Model. The models have been standardized and links have been provided for operation in the TRNSYS simulation program. The models are described in analytical terms as well as in computer code. Specific water tank tests were performed for the purpose of model validation. Agreement between model data and test data is excellent. A description of the limitations has also been included. Streamlining results and criteria for the reduction of computer time have also been shown for both watermore » tank computer models. Computer codes for the models and instructions for operating these models in TRNSYS have also been included, making the models readily available for DOE and industry use. Rock bed component simulation models have been reviewed and a model selected and upgraded. This model is a logical extension of the Mumma-Marvin model. Specific rock bed tests have been performed for the purpose of validation. Data have been reviewed for consistency. Details of the test results concerned with rock characteristics and pressure drop through the bed have been explored and are reported.« less

Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

2011-01-01

Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

Complex functionality with minimal computation: Promise and pitfalls of reduced-tracer ocean biogeochemistry models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galbraith, Eric D.; Dunne, John P.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Slater, Richard D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Dufour, Carolina O.; de Souza, Gregory F.; Bianchi, Daniele; Claret, Mariona; Rodgers, Keith B.; Marvasti, Seyedehsafoura Sedigh

2015-12-01

Earth System Models increasingly include ocean biogeochemistry models in order to predict changes in ocean carbon storage, hypoxia, and biological productivity under climate change. However, state-of-the-art ocean biogeochemical models include many advected tracers, that significantly increase the computational resources required, forcing a trade-off with spatial resolution. Here, we compare a state-of-the art model with 30 prognostic tracers (TOPAZ) with two reduced-tracer models, one with 6 tracers (BLING), and the other with 3 tracers (miniBLING). The reduced-tracer models employ parameterized, implicit biological functions, which nonetheless capture many of the most important processes resolved by TOPAZ. All three are embedded in the same coupled climate model. Despite the large difference in tracer number, the absence of tracers for living organic matter is shown to have a minimal impact on the transport of nutrient elements, and the three models produce similar mean annual preindustrial distributions of macronutrients, oxygen, and carbon. Significant differences do exist among the models, in particular the seasonal cycle of biomass and export production, but it does not appear that these are necessary consequences of the reduced tracer number. With increasing CO2, changes in dissolved oxygen and anthropogenic carbon uptake are very similar across the different models. Thus, while the reduced-tracer models do not explicitly resolve the diversity and internal dynamics of marine ecosystems, we demonstrate that such models are applicable to a broad suite of major biogeochemical concerns, including anthropogenic change. These results are very promising for the further development and application of reduced-tracer biogeochemical models that incorporate "sub-ecosystem-scale" parameterizations.

A concentrated parameter model for the human cardiovascular system including heart valve dynamics and atrioventricular interaction.

PubMed

Korakianitis, Theodosios; Shi, Yubing

2006-09-01

Numerical modeling of the human cardiovascular system has always been an active research direction since the 19th century. In the past, various simulation models of different complexities were proposed for different research purposes. In this paper, an improved numerical model to study the dynamic function of the human circulation system is proposed. In the development of the mathematical model, the heart chambers are described with a variable elastance model. The systemic and pulmonary loops are described based on the resistance-compliance-inertia concept by considering local effects of flow friction, elasticity of blood vessels and inertia of blood in different segments of the blood vessels. As an advancement from previous models, heart valve dynamics and atrioventricular interaction, including atrial contraction and motion of the annulus fibrosus, are specifically modeled. With these improvements the developed model can predict several important features that were missing in previous numerical models, including regurgitant flow on heart valve closure, the value of E/A velocity ratio in mitral flow, the motion of the annulus fibrosus (called the KG diaphragm pumping action), etc. These features have important clinical meaning and their changes are often related to cardiovascular diseases. Successful simulation of these features enhances the accuracy of simulations of cardiovascular dynamics, and helps in clinical studies of cardiac function.

Biogeochemical metabolic modeling of methanogenesis by Methanosarcina barkeri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensvold, Z. D.; Jin, Q.

2015-12-01

Methanogenesis, the biological process of methane production, is the final step of natural organic matter degradation. In studying natural methanogenesis, important questions include how fast methanogenesis proceeds and how methanogens adapt to the environment. To address these questions, we propose a new approach - biogeochemical reaction modeling - by simulating the metabolic networks of methanogens. Biogeochemical reaction modeling combines geochemical reaction modeling and genome-scale metabolic modeling. Geochemical reaction modeling focuses on the speciation of electron donors and acceptors in the environment, and therefore the energy available to methanogens. Genome-scale metabolic modeling predicts microbial rates and metabolic strategies. Specifically, this approach describes methanogenesis using an enzyme network model, and computes enzyme rates by accounting for both the kinetics and thermodynamics. The network model is simulated numerically to predict enzyme abundances and rates of methanogen metabolism. We applied this new approach to Methanosarcina barkeri strain fusaro, a model methanogen that makes methane by reducing carbon dioxide and oxidizing dihydrogen. The simulation results match well with the results of previous laboratory experiments, including the magnitude of proton motive force and the kinetic parameters of Methanosarcina barkeri. The results also predict that in natural environments, the configuration of methanogenesis network, including the concentrations of enzymes and metabolites, differs significantly from that under laboratory settings.

The Role of Inertia in Modeling Decisions from Experience with Instance-Based Learning

PubMed Central

Dutt, Varun; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2012-01-01

One form of inertia is the tendency to repeat the last decision irrespective of the obtained outcomes while making decisions from experience (DFE). A number of computational models based upon the Instance-Based Learning Theory, a theory of DFE, have included different inertia implementations and have shown to simultaneously account for both risk-taking and alternations between alternatives. The role that inertia plays in these models, however, is unclear as the same model without inertia is also able to account for observed risk-taking quite well. This paper demonstrates the predictive benefits of incorporating one particular implementation of inertia in an existing IBL model. We use two large datasets, estimation and competition, from the Technion Prediction Tournament involving a repeated binary-choice task to show that incorporating an inertia mechanism in an IBL model enables it to account for the observed average risk-taking and alternations. Including inertia, however, does not help the model to account for the trends in risk-taking and alternations over trials compared to the IBL model without the inertia mechanism. We generalize the two IBL models, with and without inertia, to the competition set by using the parameters determined in the estimation set. The generalization process demonstrates both the advantages and disadvantages of including inertia in an IBL model. PMID:22685443

The role of inertia in modeling decisions from experience with instance-based learning.

PubMed

Dutt, Varun; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2012-01-01

One form of inertia is the tendency to repeat the last decision irrespective of the obtained outcomes while making decisions from experience (DFE). A number of computational models based upon the Instance-Based Learning Theory, a theory of DFE, have included different inertia implementations and have shown to simultaneously account for both risk-taking and alternations between alternatives. The role that inertia plays in these models, however, is unclear as the same model without inertia is also able to account for observed risk-taking quite well. This paper demonstrates the predictive benefits of incorporating one particular implementation of inertia in an existing IBL model. We use two large datasets, estimation and competition, from the Technion Prediction Tournament involving a repeated binary-choice task to show that incorporating an inertia mechanism in an IBL model enables it to account for the observed average risk-taking and alternations. Including inertia, however, does not help the model to account for the trends in risk-taking and alternations over trials compared to the IBL model without the inertia mechanism. We generalize the two IBL models, with and without inertia, to the competition set by using the parameters determined in the estimation set. The generalization process demonstrates both the advantages and disadvantages of including inertia in an IBL model.

Applying ILAMB to data from several generations of the Community Land Model to assess the relative contribution of model improvements and forcing uncertainty to model-data agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, D. M.; Fisher, R.; Koven, C.; Oleson, K. W.; Swenson, S. C.; Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Collier, N.; Mu, M.

2017-12-01

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project is a model-data intercomparison and integration project designed to assess and help improve land models. The current package includes assessment of more than 25 land variables across more than 60 global, regional, and site-level (e.g., FLUXNET) datasets. ILAMB employs a broad range of metrics including RMSE, mean error, spatial distributions, interannual variability, and functional relationships. Here, we apply ILAMB for the purpose of assessment of several generations of the Community Land Model (CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5). Encouragingly, CLM5, which is the result of model development over the last several years by more than 50 researchers from 15 different institutions, shows broad improvements across many ILAMB metrics including LAI, GPP, vegetation carbon stocks, and the historical net ecosystem carbon balance among others. We will also show that considerable uncertainty arises from the historical climate forcing data used (GSWP3v1 and CRUNCEPv7). ILAMB score variations due to forcing data can be as large for many variables as that due to model structural differences. Strengths and weaknesses and persistent biases across model generations will also be presented.

Can a one-layer optical skin model including melanin and inhomogeneously distributed blood explain spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectra?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Hanna; Pettersson, Anders; Larsson, Marcus; Strömberg, Tomas

2011-02-01

Model based analysis of calibrated diffuse reflectance spectroscopy can be used for determining oxygenation and concentration of skin chromophores. This study aimed at assessing the effect of including melanin in addition to hemoglobin (Hb) as chromophores and compensating for inhomogeneously distributed blood (vessel packaging), in a single-layer skin model. Spectra from four humans were collected during different provocations using a twochannel fiber optic probe with source-detector separations 0.4 and 1.2 mm. Absolute calibrated spectra using data from either a single distance or both distances were analyzed using inverse Monte Carlo for light transport and Levenberg-Marquardt for non-linear fitting. The model fitting was excellent using a single distance. However, the estimated model failed to explain spectra from the other distance. The two-distance model did not fit the data well at either distance. Model fitting was significantly improved including melanin and vessel packaging. The most prominent effect when fitting data from the larger separation compared to the smaller separation was a different light scattering decay with wavelength, while the tissue fraction of Hb and saturation were similar. For modeling spectra at both distances, we propose using either a multi-layer skin model or a more advanced model for the scattering phase function.

Modeling vehicle operating speed on urban roads in Montreal: a panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model.

PubMed

Eluru, Naveen; Chakour, Vincent; Chamberlain, Morgan; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

2013-10-01

Vehicle operating speed measured on roadways is a critical component for a host of analysis in the transportation field including transportation safety, traffic flow modeling, roadway geometric design, vehicle emissions modeling, and road user route decisions. The current research effort contributes to the literature on examining vehicle speed on urban roads methodologically and substantively. In terms of methodology, we formulate a new econometric model framework for examining speed profiles. The proposed model is an ordered response formulation of a fractional split model. The ordered nature of the speed variable allows us to propose an ordered variant of the fractional split model in the literature. The proposed formulation allows us to model the proportion of vehicles traveling in each speed interval for the entire segment of roadway. We extend the model to allow the influence of exogenous variables to vary across the population. Further, we develop a panel mixed version of the fractional split model to account for the influence of site-specific unobserved effects. The paper contributes substantively by estimating the proposed model using a unique dataset from Montreal consisting of weekly speed data (collected in hourly intervals) for about 50 local roads and 70 arterial roads. We estimate separate models for local roads and arterial roads. The model estimation exercise considers a whole host of variables including geometric design attributes, roadway attributes, traffic characteristics and environmental factors. The model results highlight the role of various street characteristics including number of lanes, presence of parking, presence of sidewalks, vertical grade, and bicycle route on vehicle speed proportions. The results also highlight the presence of site-specific unobserved effects influencing the speed distribution. The parameters from the modeling exercise are validated using a hold-out sample not considered for model estimation. The results indicate that the proposed panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model offers promise for modeling such proportional ordinal variables. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

DOEpatents

Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

2017-03-07

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Influence of backup bearings and support structure dynamics on the behavior of rotors with active supports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flowers, George T.

1994-01-01

Substantial progress has been made toward the goals of this research effort in the past six months. A simplified rotor model with a flexible shaft and backup bearings has been developed. The model is based upon the work of Ishii and Kirk. Parameter studies of the behavior of this model are currently being conducted. A simple rotor model which includes a flexible disk and bearings with clearance has been developed and the dynamics of the model investigated. The study consists of simulation work coupled with experimental verification. The work is documented in the attached paper. A rotor model based upon the T-501 engine has been developed which includes backup bearing effects. The dynamics of this model are currently being studied with the objective of verifying the conclusions obtained from the simpler models. Parallel simulation runs are being conducted using an ANSYS based finite element model of the T-501.

Sociodemographic Factors Associated With Changes in Successful Aging in Spain: A Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Domènech-Abella, Joan; Perales, Jaime; Lara, Elvira; Moneta, Maria Victoria; Izquierdo, Ana; Rico-Uribe, Laura Alejandra; Mundó, Jordi; Haro, Josep Maria

2017-06-01

Successful aging (SA) refers to maintaining well-being in old age. Several definitions or models of SA exist (biomedical, psychosocial, and mixed). We examined the longitudinal association between various SA models and sociodemographic factors, and analyzed the patterns of change within these models. This was a nationally representative follow-up in Spain including 3,625 individuals aged ≥50 years. Some 1,970 individuals were interviewed after 3 years. Linear regression models were used to analyze the survey data. Age, sex, and occupation predicted SA in the biomedical model, while marital status, educational level, and urbanicity predicted SA in the psychosocial model. The remaining models included different sets of these predictors as significant. In the psychosocial model, individuals tended to improve over time but this was not the case in the biomedical model. The biomedical and psychosocial components of SA need to be addressed specifically to achieve the best aging trajectories.

A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Barlow, Paul M.; Welter, Dave E.

2018-01-01

To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.

Modeling to predict pilot performance during CDTI-based in-trail following experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorensen, J. A.; Goka, T.

1984-01-01

A mathematical model was developed of the flight system with the pilot using a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. Both in-trail and vertical dynamics were included. The nominal spacing was based on one of three criteria (Constant Time Predictor; Constant Time Delay; or Acceleration Cue). This model was used to simulate digitally the dynamics of a string of multiple following aircraft, including response to initial position errors. The simulation was used to predict the outcome of a series of in-trail following experiments, including pilot performance in maintaining correct longitudinal spacing and vertical position. The experiments were run in the NASA Ames Research Center multi-cab cockpit simulator facility. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Model parameters were adjusted, so that modeled performance matched experimental results. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are summarized.

Networks for image acquisition, processing and display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.

1990-01-01

The human visual system comprises layers of networks which sample, process, and code images. Understanding these networks is a valuable means of understanding human vision and of designing autonomous vision systems based on network processing. Ames Research Center has an ongoing program to develop computational models of such networks. The models predict human performance in detection of targets and in discrimination of displayed information. In addition, the models are artificial vision systems sharing properties with biological vision that has been tuned by evolution for high performance. Properties include variable density sampling, noise immunity, multi-resolution coding, and fault-tolerance. The research stresses analysis of noise in visual networks, including sampling, photon, and processing unit noises. Specific accomplishments include: models of sampling array growth with variable density and irregularity comparable to that of the retinal cone mosaic; noise models of networks with signal-dependent and independent noise; models of network connection development for preserving spatial registration and interpolation; multi-resolution encoding models based on hexagonal arrays (HOP transform); and mathematical procedures for simplifying analysis of large networks.

SARAH 4: A tool for (not only SUSY) model builders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staub, Florian

2014-06-01

We present the new version of the Mathematica package SARAH which provides the same features for a non-supersymmetric model as previous versions for supersymmetric models. This includes an easy and straightforward definition of the model, the calculation of all vertices, mass matrices, tadpole equations, and self-energies. Also the two-loop renormalization group equations for a general gauge theory are now included and have been validated with the independent Python code PyR@TE. Model files for FeynArts, CalcHep/CompHep, WHIZARD and in the UFO format can be written, and source code for SPheno for the calculation of the mass spectrum, a set of precision observables, and the decay widths and branching ratios of all states can be generated. Furthermore, the new version includes routines to output model files for Vevacious for both, supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric, models. Global symmetries are also supported with this version and by linking Susyno the handling of Lie groups has been improved and extended.

A Data Snapshot Approach for Making Real-Time Predictions in Basketball.

PubMed

Kayhan, Varol Onur; Watkins, Alison

2018-06-08

This article proposes a novel approach, called data snapshots, to generate real-time probabilities of winning for National Basketball Association (NBA) teams while games are being played. The approach takes a snapshot from a live game, identifies historical games that have the same snapshot, and uses the outcomes of these games to calculate the winning probabilities of the teams in this game as the game is underway. Using data obtained from 20 seasons worth of NBA games, we build three models and compare their accuracies to a baseline accuracy. In Model 1, each snapshot includes the point difference between the home and away teams at a given second of the game. In Model 2, each snapshot includes the net team strength in addition to the point difference at a given second. In Model 3, each snapshot includes the rate of score change in addition to the point difference at a given second. The results show that all models perform better than the baseline accuracy, with Model 1 being the best model.

The International Reference Ionosphere - Status 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilitza, Dieter

2015-04-01

This paper describes the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. IRI-2012 includes new models for the electron density and ion densities in the region below the F-peak, a storm-time model for the auroral E-region, an improved electron temperature model that includes variations with solar activity, and for the first time a description of auroral boundaries. In addition, the thermosphere model required for baseline neutral densities and temperatures was upgraded from MSIS-86 to the newer NRLMSIS-00 model and Corrected Geomagnetic coordinates (CGM) were included in IRI as an additional coordinate system for a better representation of auroral and polar latitudes. Ongoing IRI activities towards the inclusion of an improved model for the F2 peak height hmF2 are discussed as are efforts to develop a "Real-Time IRI". The paper is based on an IRI status report presented at the 2013 IRI Workshop in Olsztyn, Poland. The IRI homepage is at

Parachute Models Used in the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruz, Juan R.; Way, David W.; Shidner, Jeremy D.; Davis, Jody L.; Powell, Richard W.; Kipp, Devin M.; Adams, Douglas S.; Witkowski, Al; Kandis, Mike

2013-01-01

An end-to-end simulation of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence was created at the NASA Langley Research Center using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2). This simulation is capable of providing numerous MSL system and flight software responses, including Monte Carlo-derived statistics of these responses. The MSL POST2 simulation includes models of EDL system elements, including those related to the parachute system. Among these there are models for the parachute geometry, mass properties, deployment, inflation, opening force, area oscillations, aerodynamic coefficients, apparent mass, interaction with the main landing engines, and off-loading. These models were kept as simple as possible, considering the overall objectives of the simulation. The main purpose of this paper is to describe these parachute system models to the extent necessary to understand how they work and some of their limitations. A list of lessons learned during the development of the models and simulation is provided. Future improvements to the parachute system models are proposed.

Does information available at admission for delivery improve prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean?

PubMed Central

Grobman, William A.; Lai, Yinglei; Landon, Mark B.; Spong, Catherine Y.; Leveno, Kenneth J.; Rouse, Dwight J.; Varner, Michael W.; Moawad, Atef H.; Simhan, Hyagriv N.; Harper, Margaret; Wapner, Ronald J.; Sorokin, Yoram; Miodovnik, Menachem; Carpenter, Marshall; O'sullivan, Mary J.; Sibai, Baha M.; Langer, Oded; Thorp, John M.; Ramin, Susan M.; Mercer, Brian M.

2010-01-01

Objective To construct a predictive model for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) that combines factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses with those known at initiation of prenatal care. Study design Using multivariable modeling, we constructed a predictive model for VBAC that included patient factors known at the initial prenatal visit as well as those that only became evident as the pregancy progressed to the admission for delivery. Results 9616 women were analyzed. The regression equation for VBAC success included multiple factors that could not be known at the first prenatal visit. The area under the curve for this model was significantly greater (P < .001) than that of a model that included only factors available at the first prenatal visit. Conclusion A prediction model for VBAC success that incorporates factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses adds to the predictive accuracy of a model that uses only factors available at a first prenatal visit. PMID:19813165

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 2; Verification of One-Dimensional Numerical Model at Lake Keowee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.

1980-01-01

A one dimensional model for studying the thermal dynamics of cooling lakes was developed and verified. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods. The model includes the effects of variation of area with depth, surface heating due to solar radiation absorbed at the upper layer, and internal heating due to the transmission of solar radiation to the sub-surface layers. The exchange of mechanical energy between the lake and the atmosphere is included through the coupling of thermal diffusivity and wind speed. The effects of discharge and intake by power plants are also included. The numerical model was calibrated by applying it to Cayuga Lake. The model was then verified through a long term simulation using Lake Keowee data base. The comparison between measured and predicted vertical temperature profiles for the nine years is good. The physical limnology of Lake Keowee is presented through a set of graphical representations of the measured data base.

Framework for Uncertainty Assessment - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, M. P.; Cole, C. R.; Murray, C. J.; Thorne, P. D.; Wurstner, S. K.

2002-05-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is in the process of development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future site assessments that addresses parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainties related to the groundwater conceptual model. The long-term goals of the effort are development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future assessments and analyses being made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater model. The basic approach in the framework developed for uncertainty assessment consists of: 1) Alternate conceptual model (ACM) identification to identify and document the major features and assumptions of each conceptual model. The process must also include a periodic review of the existing and proposed new conceptual models as data or understanding become available. 2) ACM development of each identified conceptual model through inverse modeling with historical site data. 3) ACM evaluation to identify which of conceptual models are plausible and should be included in any subsequent uncertainty assessments. 4) ACM uncertainty assessments will only be carried out for those ACMs determined to be plausible through comparison with historical observations and model structure identification measures. The parameter uncertainty assessment process generally involves: a) Model Complexity Optimization - to identify the important or relevant parameters for the uncertainty analysis; b) Characterization of Parameter Uncertainty - to develop the pdfs for the important uncertain parameters including identification of any correlations among parameters; c) Propagation of Uncertainty - to propagate parameter uncertainties (e.g., by first order second moment methods if applicable or by a Monte Carlo approach) through the model to determine the uncertainty in the model predictions of interest. 5)Estimation of combined ACM and scenario uncertainty by a double sum with each component of the inner sum (an individual CCDF) representing parameter uncertainty associated with a particular scenario and ACM and the outer sum enumerating the various plausible ACM and scenario combinations in order to represent the combined estimate of uncertainty (a family of CCDFs). A final important part of the framework includes identification, enumeration, and documentation of all the assumptions, which include those made during conceptual model development, required by the mathematical model, required by the numerical model, made during the spatial and temporal descretization process, needed to assign the statistical model and associated parameters that describe the uncertainty in the relevant input parameters, and finally those assumptions required by the propagation method. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RL01830.

A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat-Climax Mine, Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geotechnical Sciences Group Bechtel Nevada

2006-01-01

A new three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model for the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit was completed in 2005. The model area includes Yucca Flat and Climax Mine, former nuclear testing areas at the Nevada Test Site, and proximal areas. The model area is approximately 1,250 square kilometers in size and is geologically complex. Yucca Flat is a topographically closed basin typical of many valleys in the Basin and Range province. Faulted and tilted blocks of Tertiary-age volcanic rocks and underlying Proterozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks form low ranges around the structural basin. During the Cretaceous Period a granitic intrusive wasmore » emplaced at the north end of Yucca Flat. A diverse set of geological and geophysical data collected over the past 50 years was used to develop a structural model and hydrostratigraphic system for the basin. These were integrated using EarthVision? software to develop the 3-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model. Fifty-six stratigraphic units in the model area were grouped into 25 hydrostratigraphic units based on each unit's propensity toward aquifer or aquitard characteristics. The authors organized the alluvial section into 3 hydrostratigraphic units including 2 aquifers and 1 confining unit. The volcanic units in the model area are organized into 13 hydrostratigraphic units that include 8 aquifers and 5 confining units. The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks are divided into 7 hydrostratigraphic units, including 3 aquifers and 4 confining units. Other units include 1 Tertiary-age sedimentary confining unit and 1 Mesozoic-age granitic confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these hydrostratigraphic units (''layers'' in the model) along with the major structural features (i.e., faults). The model incorporates 178 high-angle normal faults of Tertiary age and 2 low-angle thrust faults of Mesozoic age. The complexity of the model area and the non-uniqueness of some of the interpretations incorporated into the base model made it necessary to formulate alternative interpretations for some of the major features in the model. Five of these alternatives were developed so they could be modeled in the same fashion as the base model. This work was done for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Underground Test Area subproject of the Environmental Restoration Project.« less

High-Fidelity Modeling for Health Monitoring in Honeycomb Sandwich Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dimitry G.; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Tyson, Richard W.; Walker, James L.; Miller, Jimmy L.

2011-01-01

High-Fidelity Model of the sandwich composite structure with real geometry is reported. The model includes two composite facesheets, honeycomb core, piezoelectric actuator/sensors, adhesive layers, and the impactor. The novel feature of the model is that it includes modeling of the impact and wave propagation in the structure before and after the impact. Results of modeling of the wave propagation, impact, and damage detection in sandwich honeycomb plates using piezoelectric actuator/sensor scheme are reported. The results of the simulations are compared with the experimental results. It is shown that the model is suitable for analysis of the physics of failure due to the impact and for testing structural health monitoring schemes based on guided wave propagation.

Animal models of fibromyalgia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Animal models of disease states are valuable tools for developing new treatments and investigating underlying mechanisms. They should mimic the symptoms and pathology of the disease and importantly be predictive of effective treatments. Fibromyalgia is characterized by chronic widespread pain with associated co-morbid symptoms that include fatigue, depression, anxiety and sleep dysfunction. In this review, we present different animal models that mimic the signs and symptoms of fibromyalgia. These models are induced by a wide variety of methods that include repeated muscle insults, depletion of biogenic amines, and stress. All potential models produce widespread and long-lasting hyperalgesia without overt peripheral tissue damage and thus mimic the clinical presentation of fibromyalgia. We describe the methods for induction of the model, pathophysiological mechanisms for each model, and treatment profiles. PMID:24314231

Information Retrieval: A Sequential Learning Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bookstein, Abraham

1983-01-01

Presents decision-theoretic models which intrinsically include retrieval of multiple documents whereby system responds to request by presenting documents to patron in sequence, gathering feedback, and using information to modify future retrievals. Document independence model, set retrieval model, sequential retrieval model, learning model,…

Engineering technology for networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paul, Arthur S.; Benjamin, Norman

1991-01-01

Space Network (SN) modeling and evaluation are presented. The following tasks are included: Network Modeling (developing measures and metrics for SN, modeling of the Network Control Center (NCC), using knowledge acquired from the NCC to model the SNC, and modeling the SN); and Space Network Resource scheduling.

Porcine models of muscular dystrophy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is a progressive, fatal, X-linked disease caused by a failure to accumulate the cytoskeletal protein, dystrophin. This disease is modeled by a variety of animal models including several fish models, mice, rats, and dogs. While these models have contributed substantially t...

Computer-Aided Geometry Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shoosmith, J. N. (Compiler); Fulton, R. E. (Compiler)

1984-01-01

Techniques in computer-aided geometry modeling and their application are addressed. Mathematical modeling, solid geometry models, management of geometric data, development of geometry standards, and interactive and graphic procedures are discussed. The applications include aeronautical and aerospace structures design, fluid flow modeling, and gas turbine design.

Identity in Africa's Internal Conflicts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deng, Francis M.

1996-01-01

Identifies and defines four models of internal ethnic conflict and discusses those conflicts within various African nations. The corresponding models and countries include Integration Model: Botswana and Somalia; Managed Diversity Model: Ghana, Cote d'Ivorie, Kenya, and Nigeria; Ambivalent Accommodation Model: Ethiopia and Djibouti; and Acute…

HRM: HII Region Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

2017-07-01

HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Inhibition by ultraviolet and photosynthetically available radiation lowers model estimates of depth-integrated picophytoplankton photosynthesis: global predictions for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus.

PubMed

Neale, Patrick J; Thomas, Brian C

2017-01-01

Phytoplankton photosynthesis is often inhibited by ultraviolet (UV) and intense photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), but the effects on ocean productivity have received little consideration aside from polar areas subject to periodic enhanced UV-B due to depletion of stratospheric ozone. A more comprehensive assessment is important for understanding the contribution of phytoplankton production to the global carbon budget, present and future. Here, we consider responses in the temperate and tropical mid-ocean regions typically dominated by picophytoplankton including the prokaryotic lineages, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Spectral models of photosynthetic response for each lineage were constructed using model strains cultured at different growth irradiances and temperatures. In the model, inhibition becomes more severe once exposure exceeds a threshold (E max ) related to repair capacity. Model parameters are presented for Prochlorococcus adding to those previously presented for Synechococcus. The models were applied to estimate midday, water column photosynthesis based on an atmospheric model of spectral radiation, satellite-derived spectral water transparency and temperature. Based on a global survey of inhibitory exposure severity, a full-latitude section of the mid-Pacific and near-equatorial region of the east Pacific were identified as representative regions for prediction of responses over the entire water column. Comparing predictions integrated over the water column including versus excluding inhibition, production was 7-28% lower due to inhibition depending on strain and site conditions. Inhibition was consistently greater for Prochlorococcus compared to two strains of Synechococcus. Considering only the surface mixed layer, production was inhibited 7-73%. On average, including inhibition lowered estimates of midday productivity around 20% for the modeled region of the Pacific with UV accounting for two-thirds of the reduction. In contrast, most other productivity models either ignore inhibition or only include PAR inhibition. Incorporation of E max model responses into an existing spectral model of depth-integrated, daily production will enable efficient global predictions of picophytoplankton productivity including inhibition. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

77 FR 41132 - Air Quality Implementation Plans; Alabama; Attainment Plan for the Alabama Portion of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-12

... modeling demonstration should include supporting technical analyses and descriptions of all relevant....5 and NO X . The attainment demonstration includes: Technical analyses that locate, identify, and... modeling analysis is a complex technical evaluation that began with selection of the modeling system. The...

76 FR 29688 - Approval and Promulgation of State Implementation Plan Revisions; Infrastructure Requirements for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-23

... requirements for SIPs, including emissions inventories, monitoring, and modeling, to assure attainment and... include requirements, such as modeling, monitoring, and emissions inventories, which are designed to... significant deterioration (PSD) and visibility protection. 110(a)(2)(K): Air quality modeling/data. 110(a)(2...

76 FR 77952 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; North Carolina; 110(a)(1) and (2...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-15

..., including emissions inventories, monitoring, and modeling to assure attainment and maintenance of the NAAQS.... As mentioned above, these requirements include SIP infrastructure elements such as modeling... officials; public notification; and PSD and visibility protection. 110(a)(2)(K): Air quality modeling/data...

A Model for Recruiting the New Community College Student.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitt Community Coll., Greenville, NC.

This proposal represents a systematic and research-based effort to revitalize traditional recruiting practices and to establish a new recruitment model for reaching the nontraditional student in North Carolina two-year colleges. It includes activities of and findings from a model adult recruiting project. A project overview includes the objectives…

Handling Correlations between Covariates and Random Slopes in Multilevel Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Michael David; Castellano, Katherine E.; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders

2014-01-01

This article discusses estimation of multilevel/hierarchical linear models that include cluster-level random intercepts and random slopes. Viewing the models as structural, the random intercepts and slopes represent the effects of omitted cluster-level covariates that may be correlated with included covariates. The resulting correlations between…

Theoretical studies of solar lasers and converters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, John H.

1990-01-01

The research described consisted of developing and refining the continuous flow laser model program including the creation of a working model. The mathematical development of a two pass amplifier for an iodine laser is summarized. A computer program for the amplifier's simulation is included with output from the simulation model.

A Survey of Model Evaluation Approaches with a Tutorial on Hierarchical Bayesian Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shiffrin, Richard M.; Lee, Michael D.; Kim, Woojae; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2008-01-01

This article reviews current methods for evaluating models in the cognitive sciences, including theoretically based approaches, such as Bayes factors and minimum description length measures; simulation approaches, including model mimicry evaluations; and practical approaches, such as validation and generalization measures. This article argues…

A modified F-test for evaluating model performance by including both experimental and simulation uncertainties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Experimental and simulation uncertainties have not been included in many of the statistics used in assessing agricultural model performance. The objectives of this study were to develop an F-test that can be used to evaluate model performance considering experimental and simulation uncertainties, an...

The impact of ARM on climate modeling

DOE PAGES

Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; ...

2016-07-15

Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

A computer program for predicting nonlinear uniaxial material responses using viscoplastic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, T. Y.; Thompson, R. L.

1984-01-01

A computer program was developed for predicting nonlinear uniaxial material responses using viscoplastic constitutive models. Four specific models, i.e., those due to Miller, Walker, Krieg-Swearengen-Rhode, and Robinson, are included. Any other unified model is easily implemented into the program in the form of subroutines. Analysis features include stress-strain cycling, creep response, stress relaxation, thermomechanical fatigue loop, or any combination of these responses. An outline is given on the theoretical background of uniaxial constitutive models, analysis procedure, and numerical integration methods for solving the nonlinear constitutive equations. In addition, a discussion on the computer program implementation is also given. Finally, seven numerical examples are included to demonstrate the versatility of the computer program developed.

Modeling regional variation in riverine fish biodiversity in the Arkansas-White-Red River basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweizer, Peter E; Jager, Yetta

The patterns of biodiversity in freshwater systems are shaped by biogeography, environmental gradients, and human-induced factors. In this study, we developed empirical models to explain fish species richness in subbasins of the Arkansas White Red River basin as a function of discharge, elevation, climate, land cover, water quality, dams, and longitudinal position. We used information-theoretic criteria to compare generalized linear mixed models and identified well-supported models. Subbasin attributes that were retained as predictors included discharge, elevation, number of downstream dams, percent forest, percent shrubland, nitrate, total phosphorus, and sediment. The random component of our models, which assumed a negative binomialmore » distribution, included spatial correlation within larger river basins and overdispersed residual variance. This study differs from previous biodiversity modeling efforts in several ways. First, obtaining likelihoods for negative binomial mixed models, and thereby avoiding reliance on quasi-likelihoods, has only recently become practical. We found the ranking of models based on these likelihood estimates to be more believable than that produced using quasi-likelihoods. Second, because we had access to a regional-scale watershed model for this river basin, we were able to include model-estimated water quality attributes as predictors. Thus, the resulting models have potential value as tools with which to evaluate the benefits of water quality improvements to fish.« less

Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

2018-01-01

Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

Logic Models for Program Design, Implementation, and Evaluation: Workshop Toolkit. REL 2015-057

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shakman, Karen; Rodriguez, Sheila M.

2015-01-01

The Logic Model Workshop Toolkit is designed to help practitioners learn the purpose of logic models, the different elements of a logic model, and the appropriate steps for developing and using a logic model for program evaluation. Topics covered in the sessions include an overview of logic models, the elements of a logic model, an introduction to…

From Data-Sharing to Model-Sharing: SCEC and the Development of Earthquake System Science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake system science seeks to construct system-level models of earthquake phenomena and use them to predict emergent seismic behavior—an ambitious enterprise that requires high degree of interdisciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration. This presentation will explore model-sharing structures that have been successful in promoting earthquake system science within the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These include disciplinary working groups to aggregate data into community models; numerical-simulation working groups to investigate system-specific phenomena (process modeling) and further improve the data models (inverse modeling); and interdisciplinary working groups to synthesize predictive system-level models. SCEC has developed a cyberinfrastructure, called the Community Modeling Environment, that can distribute the community models; manage large suites of numerical simulations; vertically integrate the hardware, software, and wetware needed for system-level modeling; and promote the interactions among working groups needed for model validation and refinement. Various socio-scientific structures contribute to successful model-sharing. Two of the most important are “communities of trust” and collaborations between government and academic scientists on mission-oriented objectives. The latter include improvements of earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard models and the use of earthquake scenarios in promoting public awareness and disaster management.

An Evaluation of Three Approximate Item Response Theory Models for Equating Test Scores.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marco, Gary L.; And Others

Three item response models were evaluated for estimating item parameters and equating test scores. The models, which approximated the traditional three-parameter model, included: (1) the Rasch one-parameter model, operationalized in the BICAL computer program; (2) an approximate three-parameter logistic model based on coarse group data divided…

Michael Eisenberg and Robert Berkowitz's Big6[TM] Information Problem-Solving Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, James O.

2003-01-01

Reviews the Big6 information problem-solving model. Highlights include benefits and dangers of the simplicity of the model; theories of instruction; testing of the model; the model as a process for completing research projects; and advice for school library media specialists considering use of the model. (LRW)

Models with Men and Women: Representing Gender in Dynamic Modeling of Social Systems.

PubMed

Palmer, Erika; Wilson, Benedicte

2018-04-01

Dynamic engineering models have yet to be evaluated in the context of feminist engineering ethics. Decision-making concerning gender in dynamic modeling design is a gender and ethical issue that is important to address regardless of the system in which the dynamic modeling is applied. There are many dynamic modeling tools that operationally include the female population, however, there is an important distinction between females and women; it is the difference between biological sex and the social construct of gender, which is fluid and changes over time and geography. The ethical oversight in failing to represent or misrepresenting gender in model design when it is relevant to the model purpose can have implications for model validity and policy model development. This paper highlights this gender issue in the context of feminist engineering ethics using a dynamic population model. Women are often represented in this type of model only in their biological capacity, while lacking their gender identity. This illustrative example also highlights how language, including the naming of variables and communication with decision-makers, plays a role in this gender issue.

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.

2017-01-01

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model developed by MSFC that is widely used for diverse mission applications including: Systems design; Performance analysis; Operations planning for aerobraking, Entry, Descent and Landing, and aerocapture; Is not a forecast model; Outputs include density, temperature, pressure, wind components, and chemical composition; Provides dispersions of thermodynamic parameters, winds, and density; Optional trajectory and auxiliary profile input files Has been used in multiple studies and proposals including NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Autonomous Aerobraking and various Discovery proposals; Released in 2005; Available at: https://software.nasa.gov/software/MFS-32314-1.

A constitutive model for the forces of a magnetic bearing including eddy currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, D. L.; Hebbale, K. V.

1993-01-01

A multiple magnet bearing can be developed from N individual electromagnets. The constitutive relationships for a single magnet in such a bearing is presented. Analytical expressions are developed for a magnet with poles arranged circumferencially. Maxwell's field equations are used so the model easily includes the effects of induced eddy currents due to the rotation of the journal. Eddy currents must be included in any dynamic model because they are the only speed dependent parameter and may lead to a critical speed for the bearing. The model is applicable to bearings using attraction or repulsion.

Parameter-expanded data augmentation for Bayesian analysis of capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Data augmentation (DA) is a flexible tool for analyzing closed and open population models of capture-recapture data, especially models which include sources of hetereogeneity among individuals. The essential concept underlying DA, as we use the term, is based on adding "observations" to create a dataset composed of a known number of individuals. This new (augmented) dataset, which includes the unknown number of individuals N in the population, is then analyzed using a new model that includes a reformulation of the parameter N in the conventional model of the observed (unaugmented) data. In the context of capture-recapture models, we add a set of "all zero" encounter histories which are not, in practice, observable. The model of the augmented dataset is a zero-inflated version of either a binomial or a multinomial base model. Thus, our use of DA provides a general approach for analyzing both closed and open population models of all types. In doing so, this approach provides a unified framework for the analysis of a huge range of models that are treated as unrelated "black boxes" and named procedures in the classical literature. As a practical matter, analysis of the augmented dataset by MCMC is greatly simplified compared to other methods that require specialized algorithms. For example, complex capture-recapture models of an augmented dataset can be fitted with popular MCMC software packages (WinBUGS or JAGS) by providing a concise statement of the model's assumptions that usually involves only a few lines of pseudocode. In this paper, we review the basic technical concepts of data augmentation, and we provide examples of analyses of closed-population models (M 0, M h , distance sampling, and spatial capture-recapture models) and open-population models (Jolly-Seber) with individual effects.

Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.

2011-01-01

The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and supplementing small data samples.

An improved model for the Earth's gravity field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapley, B. D.; Shum, C. K.; Yuan, D. N.; Ries, J. C.; Schutz, B. E.

1989-01-01

An improved model for the Earth's gravity field, TEG-1, was determined using data sets from fourteen satellites, spanning the inclination ranges from 15 to 115 deg, and global surface gravity anomaly data. The satellite measurements include laser ranging data, Doppler range-rate data, and satellite-to-ocean radar altimeter data measurements, which include the direct height measurement and the differenced measurements at ground track crossings (crossover measurements). Also determined was another gravity field model, TEG-1S, which included all the data sets in TEG-1 with the exception of direct altimeter data. The effort has included an intense scrutiny of the gravity field solution methodology. The estimated parameters included geopotential coefficients complete to degree and order 50 with selected higher order coefficients, ocean and solid Earth tide parameters, Doppler tracking station coordinates and the quasi-stationary sea surface topography. Extensive error analysis and calibration of the formal covariance matrix indicate that the gravity field model is a significant improvement over previous models and can be used for general applications in geodesy.

Behavioral Correlates of System Operational Readiness (SOR): Summary of Workshop Proceedings.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

1978) time series ARIMA models Use ARIMA models for (Box & Jenkins, 1976) interrupted time series Stage 7. Interpretation 7.1 Formatting and re...This report describes a 2-day conference called to explore the methodology required to develop a behavioral model of system operational readiness (SOR...Participants discussed (4) the behavioral variables that should be included in the model , (2) the system level measures that should be included, (3

Stochastic differential equations and turbulent dispersion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durbin, P. A.

1983-01-01

Aspects of the theory of continuous stochastic processes that seem to contribute to an understanding of turbulent dispersion are introduced and the theory and philosophy of modelling turbulent transport is emphasized. Examples of eddy diffusion examined include shear dispersion, the surface layer, and channel flow. Modeling dispersion with finite-time scale is considered including the Langevin model for homogeneous turbulence, dispersion in nonhomogeneous turbulence, and the asymptotic behavior of the Langevin model for nonhomogeneous turbulence.

Photochemical Modeling Applications

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Provides access to modeling applications involving photochemical models, including modeling of ozone, particulate matter (PM), and mercury for national and regional EPA regulations such as the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the Clean Air Mercury Rule

Remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dozier, J.; Estes, J. E.; Simonett, D. S.; Davis, R.; Frew, J.; Marks, D.; Schiffman, K.; Souza, M.; Witebsky, E.

1977-01-01

An energy balance snowmelt model for rugged terrain was devised and coupled to a flow model. A literature review of remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling was included along with a software development outline.

Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

2001-01-01

The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

Modeling Electric Field Influences on Plasmaspheric Refilling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liemohn, M. W.; Kozyra, J. U.; Khazanov, G. V.; Craven, Paul D.

1998-01-01

We have a new model of ion transport that we have applied to the problem of plasmaspheric flux tube refilling after a geomagnetic disturbance. This model solves the Fokker-Planck kinetic equation by applying discrete difference numerical schemes to the various operators. Features of the model include a time-varying ionospheric source, self-consistent Coulomb collisions, field-aligned electric field, hot plasma interactions, and ion cyclotron wave heating. We see refilling rates similar to those of earlier observations and models, except when the electric field is included. In this case, the refilling rates can be quite different that previously predicted. Depending on the populations included and the values of relevant parameters, trap zone densities can increase or decrease. In particular, the inclusion of hot populations near the equatorial region (specifically warm pancake distributions and ring current ions) can dramatically alter the refilling rate. Results are compared with observations as well as previous hydrodynamic and kinetic particle model simulations.

CFD Code Development for Combustor Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Andrew

2003-01-01

During the lifetime of this grant, work has been performed in the areas of model development, code development, code validation and code application. For model development, this has included the PDF combustion module, chemical kinetics based on thermodynamics, neural network storage of chemical kinetics, ILDM chemical kinetics and assumed PDF work. Many of these models were then implemented in the code, and in addition many improvements were made to the code, including the addition of new chemistry integrators, property evaluation schemes, new chemistry models and turbulence-chemistry interaction methodology. Validation of all new models and code improvements were also performed, while application of the code to the ZCET program and also the NPSS GEW combustor program were also performed. Several important items remain under development, including the NOx post processing, assumed PDF model development and chemical kinetic development. It is expected that this work will continue under the new grant.

Preliminary Model of Porphyry Copper Deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berger, Byron R.; Ayuso, Robert A.; Wynn, Jeffrey C.; Seal, Robert R.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program develops mineral-deposit models for application in USGS mineral-resource assessments and other mineral resource-related activities within the USGS as well as for nongovernmental applications. Periodic updates of models are published in order to incorporate new concepts and findings on the occurrence, nature, and origin of specific mineral deposit types. This update is a preliminary model of porphyry copper deposits that begins an update process of porphyry copper models published in USGS Bulletin 1693 in 1986. This update includes a greater variety of deposit attributes than were included in the 1986 model as well as more information about each attribute. It also includes an expanded discussion of geophysical and remote sensing attributes and tools useful in resource evaluations, a summary of current theoretical concepts of porphyry copper deposit genesis, and a summary of the environmental attributes of unmined and mined deposits.

Predictions of Cockpit Simulator Experimental Outcome Using System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorensen, J. A.; Goka, T.

1984-01-01

This study involved predicting the outcome of a cockpit simulator experiment where pilots used cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. The experiments were run on the NASA Ames Research Center multicab cockpit simulator facility. Prior to the experiments, a mathematical model of the pilot/aircraft/CDTI flight system was developed which included relative in-trail and vertical dynamics between aircraft in the approach string. This model was used to construct a digital simulation of the string dynamics including response to initial position errors. The model was then used to predict the outcome of the in-trail following cockpit simulator experiments. Outcome included performance and sensitivity to different separation criteria. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are noted.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

V&V framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hills, Richard G.; Maniaci, David Charles; Naughton, Jonathan W.

2015-09-01

A Verification and Validation (V&V) framework is presented for the development and execution of coordinated modeling and experimental program s to assess the predictive capability of computational models of complex systems through focused, well structured, and formal processes.The elements of the framework are based on established V&V methodology developed by various organizations including the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Four main topics are addressed: 1) Program planning based on expert elicitation of the modeling physics requirements, 2) experimental design for model assessment, 3)more » uncertainty quantification for experimental observations and computational model simulations, and 4) assessment of the model predictive capability. The audience for this document includes program planners, modelers, experimentalist, V &V specialist, and customers of the modeling results.« less

An AD100 implementation of a real-time STOVL aircraft propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouzts, Peter J.; Drummond, Colin K.

1990-01-01

A real-time dynamic model of the propulsion system for a Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft was developed for the AD100 simulation environment. The dynamic model was adapted from a FORTRAN based simulation using the dynamic programming capabilities of the AD100 ADSIM simulation language. The dynamic model includes an aerothermal representation of a turbofan jet engine, actuator and sensor models, and a multivariable control system. The AD100 model was tested for agreement with the FORTRAN model and real-time execution performance. The propulsion system model was also linked to an airframe dynamic model to provide an overall STOVL aircraft simulation for the purposes of integrated flight and propulsion control studies. An evaluation of the AD100 system for use as an aircraft simulation environment is included.

Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

PubMed

Kimmel, Marek

2014-01-01

This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 54, Area G, Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stauffer, Philip H.; Chu, Shaoping; Miller, Terry A.

This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Eight attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with thismore » report. The groundwater modeling effort reported here is a revision of the work that was conducted in 2005 (Stauffer et al., 2005a) in support of the 2008 Area G performance assessment and composite analysis (LANL, 2008). The revision effort was undertaken primarily to incorporate new geologic information that has been collected since 2003 at, and in the vicinity of, Area G. The new data were used to create a more accurate geologic framework model (GFM) that forms the basis of the numerical modeling of the site’s long-term performance. The groundwater modeling uses mean hydrologic properties of the geologic strata underlying Area G; this revision includes an evaluation of the impacts that natural variability in these properties may have on the model projections.« less

The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, J.L.; Balaji, V.; Broccoli, A.J.; Cooke, W.F.; Delworth, T.L.; Dixon, K.W.; Donner, L.J.; Dunne, K.A.; Freidenreich, S.M.; Garner, S.T.; Gudgel, R.G.; Gordon, C.T.; Held, I.M.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Kushner, P.J.; Langenhost, A.R.; Lau, N.-C.; Liang, Z.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Nath, M.J.; Ploshay, J.J.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Soden, B.J.; Stern, W.F.; Thompson, L.A.; Wilson, R.J.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Wyman, B.L.

2004-01-01

The configuration and performance of a new global atmosphere and land model for climate research developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are presented. The atmosphere model, known as AM2, includes a new gridpoint dynamical core, a prognostic cloud scheme, and a multispecies aerosol climatology, as well as components from previous models used at GFDL. The land model, known as LM2, includes soil sensible and latent heat storage, groundwater storage, and stomatal resistance. The performance of the coupled model AM2-LM2 is evaluated with a series of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations. Particular focus is given to the model's climatology and the characteristics of interannual variability related to El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One AM2-LM2 integration was perfor med according to the prescriptions of the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) and data were submitted to the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). Particular strengths of AM2-LM2, as judged by comparison to other models participating in AMIP II, include its circulation and distributions of precipitation. Prominent problems of AM2-LM2 include a cold bias to surface and tropospheric temperatures, weak tropical cyclone activity, and weak tropical intraseasonal activity associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation. An ensemble of 10 AM2-LM 2 integrations with observed SSTs for the second half of the twentieth century permits a statistically reliable assessment of the model's response to ENSO. In general, AM2-LM2 produces a realistic simulation of the anomalies in tropical precipitation and extratropical circulation that are associated with ENSO. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

A finite element model of the lower limb during stance phase of gait cycle including the muscle forces.

PubMed

Diffo Kaze, Arnaud; Maas, Stefan; Arnoux, Pierre-Jean; Wolf, Claude; Pape, Dietrich

2017-12-07

Results of finite element (FE) analyses can give insight into musculoskeletal diseases if physiological boundary conditions, which include the muscle forces during specific activities of daily life, are considered in the FE modelling. So far, many simplifications of the boundary conditions are currently made. This study presents an approach for FE modelling of the lower limb for which muscle forces were included. The stance phase of normal gait was simulated. Muscle forces were calculated using a musculoskeletal rigid body (RB) model of the human body, and were subsequently applied to a FE model of the lower limb. It was shown that the inertial forces are negligible during the stance phase of normal gait. The contact surfaces between the parts within the knee were modelled as bonded. Weak springs were attached to the distal tibia for numerical reasons. Hip joint reaction forces from the RB model and those from the FE model were similar in magnitude with relative differences less than 16%. The forces of the weak spring were negligible compared to the applied muscle forces. The maximal strain was 0.23% in the proximal region of the femoral diaphysis and 1.7% in the contact zone between the tibia and the fibula. The presented approach based on FE modelling by including muscle forces from inverse dynamic analysis of musculoskeletal RB model can be used to perform analyses of the lower limb with very realistic boundary conditions. In the present form, this model can be used to better understand the loading, stresses and strains of bones in the knee area and hence to analyse osteotomy fixation devices.

Infrastructure Upgrades to Support Model Longevity and New Applications: The Variable Infiltration Capacity Model Version 5.0 (VIC 5.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Bohn, T. J.

2015-12-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a macro-scale semi-distributed hydrologic model. VIC development began in the early 1990s and it has been used extensively, applied from basin to global scales. VIC has been applied in a many use cases, including the construction of hydrologic data sets, trend analysis, data evaluation and assimilation, forecasting, coupled climate modeling, and climate change impact analysis. Ongoing applications of the VIC model include the University of Washington's drought monitor and forecast systems, and NASA's land data assimilation systems. The development of VIC version 5.0 focused on reconfiguring the legacy VIC source code to support a wider range of modern modeling applications. The VIC source code has been moved to a public Github repository to encourage participation by the model development community-at-large. The reconfiguration has separated the physical core of the model from the driver, which is responsible for memory allocation, pre- and post-processing and I/O. VIC 5.0 includes four drivers that use the same physical model core: classic, image, CESM, and Python. The classic driver supports legacy VIC configurations and runs in the traditional time-before-space configuration. The image driver includes a space-before-time configuration, netCDF I/O, and uses MPI for parallel processing. This configuration facilitates the direct coupling of streamflow routing, reservoir, and irrigation processes within VIC. The image driver is the foundation of the CESM driver; which couples VIC to CESM's CPL7 and a prognostic atmosphere. Finally, we have added a Python driver that provides access to the functions and datatypes of VIC's physical core from a Python interface. This presentation demonstrates how reconfiguring legacy source code extends the life and applicability of a research model.

CFD-ACE+: a CAD system for simulation and modeling of MEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stout, Phillip J.; Yang, H. Q.; Dionne, Paul; Leonard, Andy; Tan, Zhiqiang; Przekwas, Andrzej J.; Krishnan, Anantha

1999-03-01

Computer aided design (CAD) systems are a key to designing and manufacturing MEMS with higher performance/reliability, reduced costs, shorter prototyping cycles and improved time- to-market. One such system is CFD-ACE+MEMS, a modeling and simulation environment for MEMS which includes grid generation, data visualization, graphical problem setup, and coupled fluidic, thermal, mechanical, electrostatic, and magnetic physical models. The fluid model is a 3D multi- block, structured/unstructured/hybrid, pressure-based, implicit Navier-Stokes code with capabilities for multi- component diffusion, multi-species transport, multi-step gas phase chemical reactions, surface reactions, and multi-media conjugate heat transfer. The thermal model solves the total enthalpy from of the energy equation. The energy equation includes unsteady, convective, conductive, species energy, viscous dissipation, work, and radiation terms. The electrostatic model solves Poisson's equation. Both the finite volume method and the boundary element method (BEM) are available for solving Poisson's equation. The BEM method is useful for unbounded problems. The magnetic model solves for the vector magnetic potential from Maxwell's equations including eddy currents but neglecting displacement currents. The mechanical model is a finite element stress/deformation solver which has been coupled to the flow, heat, electrostatic, and magnetic calculations to study flow, thermal electrostatically, and magnetically included deformations of structures. The mechanical or structural model can accommodate elastic and plastic materials, can handle large non-linear displacements, and can model isotropic and anisotropic materials. The thermal- mechanical coupling involves the solution of the steady state Navier equation with thermoelastic deformation. The electrostatic-mechanical coupling is a calculation of the pressure force due to surface charge on the mechanical structure. Results of CFD-ACE+MEMS modeling of MEMS such as cantilever beams, accelerometers, and comb drives are discussed.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of eruption source parameters on volcanic ash transport and dispersion modeling using HYSPLIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stunder, B.

2009-12-01

Atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) models are used in real-time at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers to predict the location of airborne volcanic ash at a future time because of the hazardous nature of volcanic ash. Transport and dispersion models usually do not include eruption column physics, but start with an idealized eruption column. Eruption source parameters (ESP) input to the models typically include column top, eruption start time and duration, volcano latitude and longitude, ash particle size distribution, and total mass emission. An example based on the Okmok, Alaska, eruption of July 12-14, 2008, was used to qualitatively estimate the effect of various model inputs on transport and dispersion simulations using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Variations included changing the ash column top and bottom, eruption start time and duration, particle size specifications, simulations with and without gravitational settling, and the effect of different meteorological model data. Graphical ATD model output of ash concentration from the various runs was qualitatively compared. Some parameters such as eruption duration and ash column depth had a large effect, while simulations using only small particles or changing the particle shape factor had much less of an effect. Some other variations such as using only large particles had a small effect for the first day or so after the eruption, then a larger effect on subsequent days. Example probabilistic output will be shown for an ensemble of dispersion model runs with various model inputs. Model output such as this may be useful as a means to account for some of the uncertainties in the model input. To improve volcanic ash ATD models, a reference database for volcanic eruptions is needed, covering many volcanoes. The database should include three major components: (1) eruption source, (2) ash observations, and (3) analyses meteorology. In addition, information on aggregation or other ash particle transformation processes would be useful.

Introducing students to ocean modeling via a web-based implementation for the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) river plume case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, C. K.; Overeem, I.; Hutton, E.; Moriarty, J.; Wiberg, P.

2016-12-01

Numerical models are increasingly used for both research and applied sciences, and it is important that we train students to run models and analyze model data. This is especially true within oceanographic sciences, many of which use hydrodynamic models to address oceanographic transport problems. These models, however, often require a fair amount of training and computer skills before a student can run the models and analyze the large data sets produced by the models. One example is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), an open source, three-dimensional primitive equation hydrodynamic ocean model that uses a structured curvilinear horizontal grid. It currently has thousands of users worldwide, and the full model includes modules for sediment transport and biogeochemistry, and several options for turbulence closures and numerical schemes. Implementing ROMS can be challenging to students, however, in part because the code was designed to provide flexibility for the choice of model parameterizations and processes, and to run on a variety of High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms. To provide a more accessible tool for classroom use, we have modified an existing idealized ROMS implementation to be run on a High Performance Computer (HPC) via the WMT (Web Modeling Toolkit), and developed a series of lesson plans that explore sediment transport within the idealized model domain. This has addressed our goal to provide a relatively easy introduction to the numerical modeling process that can be used within upper level undergraduate and graduate classes to explore sediment transport on continental shelves. The model implementation includes wave forcing, along-shelf currents, a riverine source, and suspended sediment transport. The model calculates suspended transport and deposition of sediment delivered to the continental shelf by a riverine flood. Lesson plans lead the students through running the model on a remote HPC, modifying the standard model. The lesson plans also include instruction for visualizing the model output within Matlab and Panoply. The lesson plans have been used within graduate, undergraduate classrooms, as well as in clinics aimed at educators. Feedback from these exercises has been used to improve the lesson plans and model implementation.

Numerical Modeling of River Ice Processes on the Lower Nelson River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malenchak, Jarrod Joseph

Water resource infrastructure in cold regions of the world can be significantly impacted by the existence of river ice. Major engineering concerns related to river ice include ice jam flooding, the design and operation of hydropower facilities and other hydraulic structures, water supplies, as well as ecological, environmental, and morphological effects. The use of numerical simulation models has been identified as one of the most efficient means by which river ice processes can be studied and the effects of river ice be evaluated. The continued advancement of these simulation models will help to develop new theories and evaluate potential mitigation alternatives for these ice issues. In this thesis, a literature review of existing river ice numerical models, of anchor ice formation and modeling studies, and of aufeis formation and modeling studies is conducted. A high level summary of the two-dimensional CRISSP numerical model is presented as well as the developed freeze-up model with a focus specifically on the anchor ice and aufeis growth processes. This model includes development in the detailed heat transfer calculations, an improved surface ice mass exchange model which includes the rapids entrainment process, and an improved dry bed treatment model along with the expanded anchor ice and aufeis growth model. The developed sub-models are tested in an ideal channel setting as somewhat of a model confirmation. A case study of significant anchor ice and aufeis growth on the Nelson River in northern Manitoba, Canada, will be the primary field test case for the anchor ice and aufeis model. A second case study on the same river will be used to evaluate the surface ice components of the model in a field setting. The results from these cases studies will be used to highlight the capabilities and deficiencies in the numerical model and to identify areas of further research and model development.

Development and Application of a Process-based River System Model at a Continental Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. S. H.; Dutta, D.; Vaze, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Yang, A.; Teng, J.

2014-12-01

Existing global and continental scale river models, mainly designed for integrating with global climate model, are of very course spatial resolutions and they lack many important hydrological processes, such as overbank flow, irrigation diversion, groundwater seepage/recharge, which operate at a much finer resolution. Thus, these models are not suitable for producing streamflow forecast at fine spatial resolution and water accounts at sub-catchment levels, which are important for water resources planning and management at regional and national scale. A large-scale river system model has been developed and implemented for water accounting in Australia as part of the Water Information Research and Development Alliance between Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO. The model, developed using node-link architecture, includes all major hydrological processes, anthropogenic water utilisation and storage routing that influence the streamflow in both regulated and unregulated river systems. It includes an irrigation model to compute water diversion for irrigation use and associated fluxes and stores and a storage-based floodplain inundation model to compute overbank flow from river to floodplain and associated floodplain fluxes and stores. An auto-calibration tool has been built within the modelling system to automatically calibrate the model in large river systems using Shuffled Complex Evolution optimiser and user-defined objective functions. The auto-calibration tool makes the model computationally efficient and practical for large basin applications. The model has been implemented in several large basins in Australia including the Murray-Darling Basin, covering more than 2 million km2. The results of calibration and validation of the model shows highly satisfactory performance. The model has been operalisationalised in BoM for producing various fluxes and stores for national water accounting. This paper introduces this newly developed river system model describing the conceptual hydrological framework, methods used for representing different hydrological processes in the model and the results and evaluation of the model performance. The operational implementation of the model for water accounting is discussed.

Modeling variably saturated multispecies reactive groundwater solute transport with MODFLOW-UZF and RT3D

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Ryan T.; Morway, Eric D.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Gates, Timothy K.

2013-01-01

A numerical model was developed that is capable of simulating multispecies reactive solute transport in variably saturated porous media. This model consists of a modified version of the reactive transport model RT3D (Reactive Transport in 3 Dimensions) that is linked to the Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF1) package and MODFLOW. Referred to as UZF-RT3D, the model is tested against published analytical benchmarks as well as other published contaminant transport models, including HYDRUS-1D, VS2DT, and SUTRA, and the coupled flow and transport modeling system of CATHY and TRAN3D. Comparisons in one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and three-dimensional variably saturated systems are explored. While several test cases are included to verify the correct implementation of variably saturated transport in UZF-RT3D, other cases are included to demonstrate the usefulness of the code in terms of model run-time and handling the reaction kinetics of multiple interacting species in variably saturated subsurface systems. As UZF1 relies on a kinematic-wave approximation for unsaturated flow that neglects the diffusive terms in Richards equation, UZF-RT3D can be used for large-scale aquifer systems for which the UZF1 formulation is reasonable, that is, capillary-pressure gradients can be neglected and soil parameters can be treated as homogeneous. Decreased model run-time and the ability to include site-specific chemical species and chemical reactions make UZF-RT3D an attractive model for efficient simulation of multispecies reactive transport in variably saturated large-scale subsurface systems.

Coastal strategies to predict Escherichia coli concentrations for beaches along a 35 km stretch of southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, M.B.; Whitman, R.L.

2008-01-01

To understand the fate and movement of Escherichia coli in beach water, numerous modeling studies have been undertaken including mechanistic predictions of currents and plumes and empirical modeling based on hydrometeorological variables. Most approaches are limited in scope by nearshore currents or physical obstacles and data limitations; few examine the issue from a larger spatial scale. Given the similarities between variables typically included in these models, we attempted to take a broader view of E. coli fluctuations by simultaneously examining twelve beaches along 35 km of Indiana's Lake Michigan coastline that includes five point-source outfalls. The beaches had similar E. coli fluctuations, and a best-fit empirical model included two variables: wave height and an interactive term comprised of wind direction and creek turbidity. Individual beach R2 was 0.32-0.50. Data training-set results were comparable to validation results (R2 = 0.48). Amount of variation explained by the model was similar to previous reports for individual beaches. By extending the modeling approach to include more coastline distance, broader-scale spatial and temporal changes in bacteria concentrations and the influencing factors can be characterized. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

A Physiologically-based Model for Methylmercury Uptake and Accumulation in Female American Kestrels

EPA Science Inventory

A physiologically-based model was developed to describe the uptake, distribution, and elimination of methylmercury in female American Kestrels (Falco sparverius). The model was adapted from established models for methylmercury in rodents. Features unique to the model include meth...

Empirical models to predict the volumes of debris flows generated by recently burned basins in the western U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, J.E.; Cannon, S.H.; Santi, P.M.; deWolfe, V.G.

2008-01-01

Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings. The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks. An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in that it includes a measure of burn severity and an estimate of modeling errors. The application of this model, in conjunction with models for the probability of debris flows, will enable more complete and rapid assessments of debris flow hazards following wildfire.

Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gowardhan, Akshay; Neuscamman, Stephanie; Donetti, John

Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a moremore » detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).« less

Central Limit Theorem for Exponentially Quasi-local Statistics of Spin Models on Cayley Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Tulasi Ram; Vadlamani, Sreekar; Yogeshwaran, D.

2018-04-01

Central limit theorems for linear statistics of lattice random fields (including spin models) are usually proven under suitable mixing conditions or quasi-associativity. Many interesting examples of spin models do not satisfy mixing conditions, and on the other hand, it does not seem easy to show central limit theorem for local statistics via quasi-associativity. In this work, we prove general central limit theorems for local statistics and exponentially quasi-local statistics of spin models on discrete Cayley graphs with polynomial growth. Further, we supplement these results by proving similar central limit theorems for random fields on discrete Cayley graphs taking values in a countable space, but under the stronger assumptions of α -mixing (for local statistics) and exponential α -mixing (for exponentially quasi-local statistics). All our central limit theorems assume a suitable variance lower bound like many others in the literature. We illustrate our general central limit theorem with specific examples of lattice spin models and statistics arising in computational topology, statistical physics and random networks. Examples of clustering spin models include quasi-associated spin models with fast decaying covariances like the off-critical Ising model, level sets of Gaussian random fields with fast decaying covariances like the massive Gaussian free field and determinantal point processes with fast decaying kernels. Examples of local statistics include intrinsic volumes, face counts, component counts of random cubical complexes while exponentially quasi-local statistics include nearest neighbour distances in spin models and Betti numbers of sub-critical random cubical complexes.

Reservoir Characterization using geostatistical and numerical modeling in GIS with noble gas geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez, D. A.; Swift, J. N.; Tan, S.; Darrah, T. H.

2013-12-01

The integration of precise geochemical analyses with quantitative engineering modeling into an interactive GIS system allows for a sophisticated and efficient method of reservoir engineering and characterization. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is utilized as an advanced technique for oil field reservoir analysis by combining field engineering and geological/geochemical spatial datasets with the available systematic modeling and mapping methods to integrate the information into a spatially correlated first-hand approach in defining surface and subsurface characteristics. Three key methods of analysis include: 1) Geostatistical modeling to create a static and volumetric 3-dimensional representation of the geological body, 2) Numerical modeling to develop a dynamic and interactive 2-dimensional model of fluid flow across the reservoir and 3) Noble gas geochemistry to further define the physical conditions, components and history of the geologic system. Results thus far include using engineering algorithms for interpolating electrical well log properties across the field (spontaneous potential, resistivity) yielding a highly accurate and high-resolution 3D model of rock properties. Results so far also include using numerical finite difference methods (crank-nicholson) to solve for equations describing the distribution of pressure across field yielding a 2D simulation model of fluid flow across reservoir. Ongoing noble gas geochemistry results will also include determination of the source, thermal maturity and the extent/style of fluid migration (connectivity, continuity and directionality). Future work will include developing an inverse engineering algorithm to model for permeability, porosity and water saturation.This combination of new and efficient technological and analytical capabilities is geared to provide a better understanding of the field geology and hydrocarbon dynamics system with applications to determine the presence of hydrocarbon pay zones (or other reserves) and improve oil field management (e.g. perforating, drilling, EOR and reserves estimation)

HCMI Research Goals

Cancer.gov

NCI-funded Cancer Model Development Centers (CMDCs) and the Human Cancer Models Initiative (HCMI) consortium members are creating as many as 1000 new cancer models. The models are being derived from many tumor subtypes, including rare and understudied cancers.

Design of a component-based integrated environmental modeling framework

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) includes interdependent science-based components (e.g., models, databases, viewers, assessment protocols) that comprise an appropriate software modeling system. The science-based components are responsible for consuming and producing inform...

The CICT Earth Science Systems Analysis Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pell, Barney; Coughlan, Joe; Biegel, Bryan; Stevens, Ken; Hansson, Othar; Hayes, Jordan

2004-01-01

Contents include the following: Computing Information and Communications Technology (CICT) Systems Analysis. Our modeling approach: a 3-part schematic investment model of technology change, impact assessment and prioritization. A whirlwind tour of our model. Lessons learned.

Advanced Modeling, Simulation and Analysis (AMSA) Capability Roadmap Progress Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antonsson, Erik; Gombosi, Tamas

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: NASA capability roadmap activity. Advanced modeling, simulation, and analysis overview. Scientific modeling and simulation. Operations modeling. Multi-special sensing (UV-gamma). System integration. M and S Environments and Infrastructure.

Spatial Irrigation Management Using Remote Sensing Water Balance Modeling and Soil Water Content Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, J. Burdette

Spatially informed irrigation management may improve the optimal use of water resources. Sub-field scale water balance modeling and measurement were studied in the context of irrigation management. A spatial remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration and soil water balance model was modified and validated for use in real-time irrigation management. The modeled ET compared well with eddy covariance data from eastern Nebraska. Placement and quantity of sub-field scale soil water content measurement locations was also studied. Variance reduction factor and temporal stability were used to analyze soil water content data from an eastern Nebraska field. No consistent predictor of soil water temporal stability patterns was identified. At least three monitoring locations were needed per irrigation management zone to adequately quantify the mean soil water content. The remote-sensing-based water balance model was used to manage irrigation in a field experiment. The research included an eastern Nebraska field in 2015 and 2016 and a western Nebraska field in 2016 for a total of 210 plot-years. The response of maize and soybean to irrigation using variations of the model were compared with responses from treatments using soil water content measurement and a rainfed treatment. The remote-sensing-based treatment prescribed more irrigation than the other treatments in all cases. Excessive modeled soil evaporation and insufficient drainage times were suspected causes of the model drift. Modifying evaporation and drainage reduced modeled soil water depletion error. None of the included response variables were significantly different between treatments in western Nebraska. In eastern Nebraska, treatment differences for maize and soybean included evapotranspiration and a combined variable including evapotranspiration and deep percolation. Both variables were greatest for the remote-sensing model when differences were found to be statistically significant. Differences in maize yield in 2015 were attributed to random error. Soybean yield was lowest for the remote-sensing-based treatment and greatest for rainfed, possibly because of overwatering and lodging. The model performed well considering that it did not include soil water content measurements during the season. Future work should improve the soil evaporation and drainage formulations, because of excessive precipitation and include aerial remote sensing imagery and soil water content measurement as model inputs.

A scoping review of malaria forecasting: past work and future directions

PubMed Central

Zinszer, Kate; Verma, Aman D; Charland, Katia; Brewer, Timothy F; Brownstein, John S; Sun, Zhuoyu; Buckeridge, David L

2012-01-01

Objectives There is a growing body of literature on malaria forecasting methods and the objective of our review is to identify and assess methods, including predictors, used to forecast malaria. Design Scoping review. Two independent reviewers searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study. Information sources Search strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses and Web of Science. Key journals and websites were also manually searched. Eligibility criteria for included studies We included studies that forecasted incidence, prevalence or epidemics of malaria over time. A description of the forecasting model and an assessment of the forecast accuracy of the model were requirements for inclusion. Studies were restricted to human populations and to autochthonous transmission settings. Results We identified 29 different studies that met our inclusion criteria for this review. The forecasting approaches included statistical modelling, mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Climate-related predictors were used consistently in forecasting models, with the most common predictors being rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and the normalised difference vegetation index. Model evaluation was typically based on a reserved portion of data and accuracy was measured in a variety of ways including mean-squared error and correlation coefficients. We could not compare the forecast accuracy of models from the different studies as the evaluation measures differed across the studies. Conclusions Applying different forecasting methods to the same data, exploring the predictive ability of non-environmental variables, including transmission reducing interventions and using common forecast accuracy measures will allow malaria researchers to compare and improve models and methods, which should improve the quality of malaria forecasting. PMID:23180505

Modeling nasopharyngeal carcinoma in three dimensions

PubMed Central

Siva Sankar, Prabu; Che Mat, Mohd Firdaus; Muniandy, Kalaivani; Xiang, Benedict Lian Shi; Ling, Phang Su; Hoe, Susan Ling Ling; Khoo, Alan Soo-Beng; Mohana-Kumaran, Nethia

2017-01-01

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a type of cancer endemic in Asia, including Malaysia, Southern China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Treatment resistance, particularly in recurring cases, remains a challenge. Thus, studies to develop novel therapeutic agents are important. Potential therapeutic compounds may be effectively examined using two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models, three-dimensional (3D) spheroid models or in vivo animal models. The majority of drug assessments for cancers, including for NPC, are currently performed with 2D cell culture models. This model offers economical and high-throughput screening advantages. However, 2D cell culture models cannot recapitulate the architecture and the microenvironment of a tumor. In vivo models may recapitulate certain architectural and microenvironmental conditions of a tumor, however, these are not feasible for the screening of large numbers of compounds. By contrast, 3D spheroid models may be able to recapitulate a physiological microenvironment not observed in 2D cell culture models, in addition to avoiding the impediments of in vivo animal models. Thus, the 3D spheroid model offers a more representative model for the study of NPC growth, invasion and drug response, which may be cost-effective without forgoing quality. PMID:28454359

Computer-aided operations engineering with integrated models of systems and operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Ryan, Dan; Fleming, Land

1994-01-01

CONFIG 3 is a prototype software tool that supports integrated conceptual design evaluation from early in the product life cycle, by supporting isolated or integrated modeling, simulation, and analysis of the function, structure, behavior, failures and operation of system designs. Integration and reuse of models is supported in an object-oriented environment providing capabilities for graph analysis and discrete event simulation. Integration is supported among diverse modeling approaches (component view, configuration or flow path view, and procedure view) and diverse simulation and analysis approaches. Support is provided for integrated engineering in diverse design domains, including mechanical and electro-mechanical systems, distributed computer systems, and chemical processing and transport systems. CONFIG supports abstracted qualitative and symbolic modeling, for early conceptual design. System models are component structure models with operating modes, with embedded time-related behavior models. CONFIG supports failure modeling and modeling of state or configuration changes that result in dynamic changes in dependencies among components. Operations and procedure models are activity structure models that interact with system models. CONFIG is designed to support evaluation of system operability, diagnosability and fault tolerance, and analysis of the development of system effects of problems over time, including faults, failures, and procedural or environmental difficulties.

Using a Hybrid Model to Forecast the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans.

PubMed

Zhou, Lingling; Xia, Jing; Yu, Lijing; Wang, Ying; Shi, Yun; Cai, Shunxiang; Nie, Shaofa

2016-03-23

We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliability of our hybrid model. We used the ARIMA, NARNN and ARIMA-NARNN models to fit and forecast the annual prevalence of schistosomiasis. The modeling time range included was the annual prevalence from 1956 to 2008 while the testing time range included was from 2009 to 2012. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the model performance. We reconstructed the hybrid model to forecast the annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016. The modeling and testing errors generated by the ARIMA-NARNN model were lower than those obtained from either the single ARIMA or NARNN models. The predicted annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016 demonstrated an initial decreasing trend, followed by an increase. The ARIMA-NARNN model can be well applied to analyze surveillance data for early warning systems for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.

Forward Modeling of Large-scale Structure: An Open-source Approach with Halotools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearin, Andrew P.; Campbell, Duncan; Tollerud, Erik; Behroozi, Peter; Diemer, Benedikt; Goldbaum, Nathan J.; Jennings, Elise; Leauthaud, Alexie; Mao, Yao-Yuan; More, Surhud; Parejko, John; Sinha, Manodeep; Sipöcz, Brigitta; Zentner, Andrew

2017-11-01

We present the first stable release of Halotools (v0.2), a community-driven Python package designed to build and test models of the galaxy-halo connection. Halotools provides a modular platform for creating mock universes of galaxies starting from a catalog of dark matter halos obtained from a cosmological simulation. The package supports many of the common forms used to describe galaxy-halo models: the halo occupation distribution, the conditional luminosity function, abundance matching, and alternatives to these models that include effects such as environmental quenching or variable galaxy assembly bias. Satellite galaxies can be modeled to live in subhalos or to follow custom number density profiles within their halos, including spatial and/or velocity bias with respect to the dark matter profile. The package has an optimized toolkit to make mock observations on a synthetic galaxy population—including galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing, galaxy group identification, RSD multipoles, void statistics, pairwise velocities and others—allowing direct comparison to observations. Halotools is object-oriented, enabling complex models to be built from a set of simple, interchangeable components, including those of your own creation. Halotools has an automated testing suite and is exhaustively documented on http://halotools.readthedocs.io, which includes quickstart guides, source code notes and a large collection of tutorials. The documentation is effectively an online textbook on how to build and study empirical models of galaxy formation with Python.

Using Structural Equation Modeling To Fit Models Incorporating Principal Components.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolan, Conor; Bechger, Timo; Molenaar, Peter

1999-01-01

Considers models incorporating principal components from the perspectives of structural-equation modeling. These models include the following: (1) the principal-component analysis of patterned matrices; (2) multiple analysis of variance based on principal components; and (3) multigroup principal-components analysis. Discusses fitting these models…

Measurement Model Specification Error in LISREL Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldwin, Beatrice; Lomax, Richard

This LISREL study examines the robustness of the maximum likelihood estimates under varying degrees of measurement model misspecification. A true model containing five latent variables (two endogenous and three exogenous) and two indicator variables per latent variable was used. Measurement model misspecification considered included errors of…

Multilevel Modeling of Social Segregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leckie, George; Pillinger, Rebecca; Jones, Kelvyn; Goldstein, Harvey

2012-01-01

The traditional approach to measuring segregation is based upon descriptive, non-model-based indices. A recently proposed alternative is multilevel modeling. The authors further develop the argument for a multilevel modeling approach by first describing and expanding upon its notable advantages, which include an ability to model segregation at a…

CFD Modeling Activities at the NASA Stennis Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allgood, Daniel

2007-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on NASA Stennis Space Center's Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Modeling activities is shown. The topics include: 1) Overview of NASA Stennis Space Center; 2) Role of Computational Modeling at NASA-SSC; 3) Computational Modeling Tools and Resources; and 4) CFD Modeling Applications.

Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

2017-06-01

Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

A Cognitive Model Based on Neuromodulated Plasticity

PubMed Central

Ruan, Xiaogang

2016-01-01

Associative learning, including classical conditioning and operant conditioning, is regarded as the most fundamental type of learning for animals and human beings. Many models have been proposed surrounding classical conditioning or operant conditioning. However, a unified and integrated model to explain the two types of conditioning is much less studied. Here, a model based on neuromodulated synaptic plasticity is presented. The model is bioinspired including multistored memory module and simulated VTA dopaminergic neurons to produce reward signal. The synaptic weights are modified according to the reward signal, which simulates the change of associative strengths in associative learning. The experiment results in real robots prove the suitability and validity of the proposed model. PMID:27872638

A hydroelastic model of hydrocephalus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smillie, Alan; Sobey, Ian; Molnar, Zoltan

2005-09-01

We combine elements of poroelasticity and of fluid mechanics to construct a mathematical model of the human brain and ventricular system. The model is used to study hydrocephalus, a pathological condition in which the normal flow of the cerebrospinal fluid is disturbed, causing the brain to become deformed. Our model extends recent work in this area by including flow through the aqueduct, by incorporating boundary conditions that we believe accurately represent the anatomy of the brain and by including time dependence. This enables us to construct a quantitative model of the onset, development and treatment of this condition. We formulate and solve the governing equations and boundary conditions for this model and give results that are relevant to clinical observations.

Axisymmetric whole pin life modelling of advanced gas-cooled reactor nuclear fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mella, R.; Wenman, M. R.

2013-06-01

Thermo-mechanical contributions to pellet-clad interaction (PCI) in advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs) are modelled in the ABAQUS finite element (FE) code. User supplied sub-routines permit the modelling of the non-linear behaviour of AGR fuel through life. Through utilisation of ABAQUS's well-developed pre- and post-processing ability, the behaviour of the axially constrained steel clad fuel was modelled. The 2D axisymmetric model includes thermo-mechanical behaviour of the fuel with time and condition dependent material properties. Pellet cladding gap dynamics and thermal behaviour are also modelled. The model treats heat up as a fully coupled temperature-displacement study. Dwell time and direct power cycling was applied to model the impact of online refuelling, a key feature of the AGR. The model includes the visco-plastic behaviour of the fuel under the stress and irradiation conditions within an AGR core and a non-linear heat transfer model. A multiscale fission gas release model is applied to compute pin pressure; this model is coupled to the PCI gap model through an explicit fission gas inventory code. Whole pin, whole life, models are able to show the impact of the fuel on all segments of cladding including weld end caps and cladding pellet locking mechanisms (unique to AGR fuel). The development of this model in a commercial FE package shows that the development of a potentially verified and future-proof fuel performance code can be created and used. The usability of a FE based fuel performance code would be an enhancement over past codes. Pre- and post-processors have lowered the entry barrier for the development of a fuel performance model to permit the ability to model complicated systems. Typical runtimes for a 5 year axisymmetric model takes less than one hour on a single core workstation. The current model has implemented: Non-linear fuel thermal behaviour, including a complex description of heat flow in the fuel. Coupled with a variety of different FE and finite difference models. Non-linear mechanical behaviour of the fuel and cladding including, fuel creep and swelling and cladding creep and plasticity each with dependencies on a variety of different properties. A fission gas release model which takes inputs from first principles calculations. Explicitly integrated inventory calculations performed in a coupled manner. Freedom to model steady state and transient behaviour using implicit time integration. The whole pin geometry is considered over an entire typical fuel life. The model showed by examination of normal operation and a subsequent transient chosen for software demonstration purposes: ABAQUS may be a sufficiently flexible platform to develop a complete and verified fuel performance code. The importance and effectiveness of the geometry of the fuel spacer pellets was characterised. The fuels performance under normal conditions (high friction no power spikes) would not suggest serious degradation of the cladding in fuel life. Large plastic strains were found when pellet bonding was strong, these would appear at all pellets cladding triple points and all pellet radial crack and cladding interfaces thus showing a possible axial direction to cracks forming from ductility exhaustion.

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyde, David C.; Shweyk, Kamal M.; Brown, Frank; Shah, Gautam

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Chemistry on the mesoscale: Modeling and measurement issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne; Pleim, John; Walcek, Christopher; Ching, Jason; Binkowski, Frank; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Dickerson, Russell; Pickering, Kenneth

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) -- a coupled chemistry/mesoscale model; convection in RADM; unresolved issues for mesoscale modeling with chemistry -- nonprecipitating clouds; unresolved issues for mesoscale modeling with chemistry -- aerosols; tracer studies with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM); field observations of trace gas transport in convection; and photochemical consequences of convection.

Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, John S.

This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

42 CFR § 512.900 - Termination of an episode payment model.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Termination of an episode payment model. § 512.900... SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS EPISODE PAYMENT MODEL Model Termination § 512.900 Termination of an episode payment model. CMS may terminate any EPM for reasons including but...

Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

2018-01-01

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

Treesearch

Hal E. Anderson

1982-01-01

Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

A review of methods for predicting air pollution dispersion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathis, J. J., Jr.; Grose, W. L.

1973-01-01

Air pollution modeling, and problem areas in air pollution dispersion modeling were surveyed. Emission source inventory, meteorological data, and turbulent diffusion are discussed in terms of developing a dispersion model. Existing mathematical models of urban air pollution, and highway and airport models are discussed along with their limitations. Recommendations for improving modeling capabilities are included.

The Schoolwide Enrichment Model: A Focus on Student Strengths and Interests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Renzulli, Joseph S.; Renzulli, Sally Reis

2010-01-01

This article includes an introduction to the Schoolwide Enrichment Model (SEM), with its three components: a total talent portfolio for each child, curriculum differentiation and modification, and enrichment opportunities from the Enrichment Triad Model. Also included is a brief history of the SEM and a summary of 30 years of research underlying…

The Use of Constructive Modeling and Virtual Simulation in Large-Scale Team Training: A Military Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Dee H.; Dineen, Toni; Bell, Herbert H.

1999-01-01

Discusses the use of constructive modeling and virtual simulation in team training; describes a military application of constructive modeling, including technology issues and communication protocols; considers possible improvements; and discusses applications in team-learning environments other than military, including industry and education. (LRW)

HydroShare: An online, collaborative environment for the sharing of hydrologic data and models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Arrigo, J.; Hooper, R. P.; Valentine, D. W.; Maidment, D. R.

2013-12-01

HydroShare is an online, collaborative system being developed for sharing hydrologic data and models. The goal of HydroShare is to enable scientists to easily discover and access data and models, retrieve them to their desktop or perform analyses in a distributed computing environment that may include grid, cloud or high performance computing model instances as necessary. Scientists may also publish outcomes (data, results or models) into HydroShare, using the system as a collaboration platform for sharing data, models and analyses. HydroShare is expanding the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated, creating new capability to share models and model components, and taking advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. One of the fundamental concepts in HydroShare is that of a Resource. All content is represented using a Resource Data Model that separates system and science metadata and has elements common to all resources as well as elements specific to the types of resources HydroShare will support. These will include different data types used in the hydrology community and models and workflows that require metadata on execution functionality. HydroShare will use the integrated Rule-Oriented Data System (iRODS) to manage federated data content and perform rule-based background actions on data and model resources, including parsing to generate metadata catalog information and the execution of models and workflows. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date, describe key elements of the Resource Data Model and outline the roadmap for future development.

Developing Best Practices for Detecting Change at Marine Renewable Energy Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, H. L.; Horne, J. K.

2016-02-01

In compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), an evaluation of environmental effects is mandatory for obtaining permits for any Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project in the US. Evaluation includes an assessment of baseline conditions and on-going monitoring during operation to determine if biological conditions change relative to the baseline. Currently, there are no best practices for the analysis of MRE monitoring data. We have developed an approach to evaluate and recommend analytic models used to characterize and detect change in biological monitoring data. The approach includes six steps: review current MRE monitoring practices, identify candidate models to analyze data, fit models to a baseline dataset, develop simulated scenarios of change, evaluate model fit to simulated data, and produce recommendations on the choice of analytic model for monitoring data. An empirical data set from a proposed tidal turbine site at Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, Washington was used to conduct the model evaluation. Candidate models that were evaluated included: linear regression, time series, and nonparametric models. Model fit diagnostics Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Scaled-Error were used to measure accuracy of predicted values from each model. A power analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each model to measure and detect change from baseline conditions. As many of these models have yet to be applied in MRE monitoring studies, results of this evaluation will generate comprehensive guidelines on choice of model to detect change in environmental monitoring data from MRE sites. The creation of standardized guidelines for model selection enables accurate comparison of change between life stages of a MRE project, within life stages to meet real time regulatory requirements, and comparison of environmental changes among MRE sites.

Complex functionality with minimal computation. Promise and pitfalls of reduced-tracer ocean biogeochemistry models

DOE PAGES

Galbraith, Eric D.; Dunne, John P.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; ...

2015-12-21

Earth System Models increasingly include ocean biogeochemistry models in order to predict changes in ocean carbon storage, hypoxia, and biological productivity under climate change. However, state-of-the-art ocean biogeochemical models include many advected tracers, that significantly increase the computational resources required, forcing a trade-off with spatial resolution. Here, we compare a state-of the art model with 30 prognostic tracers (TOPAZ) with two reduced-tracer models, one with 6 tracers (BLING), and the other with 3 tracers (miniBLING). The reduced-tracer models employ parameterized, implicit biological functions, which nonetheless capture many of the most important processes resolved by TOPAZ. All three are embedded inmore » the same coupled climate model. Despite the large difference in tracer number, the absence of tracers for living organic matter is shown to have a minimal impact on the transport of nutrient elements, and the three models produce similar mean annual preindustrial distributions of macronutrients, oxygen, and carbon. Significant differences do exist among the models, in particular the seasonal cycle of biomass and export production, but it does not appear that these are necessary consequences of the reduced tracer number. With increasing CO2, changes in dissolved oxygen and anthropogenic carbon uptake are very similar across the different models. Thus, while the reduced-tracer models do not explicitly resolve the diversity and internal dynamics of marine ecosystems, we demonstrate that such models are applicable to a broad suite of major biogeochemical concerns, including anthropogenic change. Lastly, these results are very promising for the further development and application of reduced-tracer biogeochemical models that incorporate ‘‘sub-ecosystem-scale’’ parameterizations.« less

Dst Index in the 2008 GEM Modeling Challenge - Model Performance for Moderate and Strong Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rastaetter, Lutz; Kuznetsova, Maria; Hesse, Michael; Chulaki, Anna; Pulkkinen, Antti; Ridley, Aaron J.; Gombosi, Tamas; Vapirev, Alexander; Raeder, Joachim; Wiltberger, Michael James;

A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

2004-12-01

A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

Photometric model of diffuse surfaces described as a distribution of interfaced Lambertian facets.

PubMed

Simonot, Lionel

2009-10-20

The Lambertian model for diffuse reflection is widely used for the sake of its simplicity. Nevertheless, this model is known to be inaccurate in describing a lot of real-world objects, including those that present a matte surface. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a photometric model where the surfaces are described as a distribution of facets where each facet consists of a flat interface on a Lambertian background. Compared to the Lambertian model, it includes two additional physical parameters: an interface roughness parameter and the ratio between the refractive indices of the background binder and of the upper medium. The Torrance-Sparrow model--distribution of strictly specular facets--and the Oren-Nayar model--distribution of strictly Lambertian facets--appear as special cases.

Atmospheric numerical modeling resource enhancement and model convective parameterization/scale interaction studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cushman, Paula P.

1993-01-01

Research will be undertaken in this contract in the area of Modeling Resource and Facilities Enhancement to include computer, technical and educational support to NASA investigators to facilitate model implementation, execution and analysis of output; to provide facilities linking USRA and the NASA/EADS Computer System as well as resident work stations in ESAD; and to provide a centralized location for documentation, archival and dissemination of modeling information pertaining to NASA's program. Additional research will be undertaken in the area of Numerical Model Scale Interaction/Convective Parameterization Studies to include implementation of the comparison of cloud and rain systems and convective-scale processes between the model simulations and what was observed; and to incorporate the findings of these and related research findings in at least two refereed journal articles.

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches.

PubMed

Wiratsudakul, Anuwat; Suparit, Parinya; Modchang, Charin

2018-01-01

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics. In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases. We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks. Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Fault trees and sequence dependencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Boyd, Mark A.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1990-01-01

One of the frequently cited shortcomings of fault-tree models, their inability to model so-called sequence dependencies, is discussed. Several sources of such sequence dependencies are discussed, and new fault-tree gates to capture this behavior are defined. These complex behaviors can be included in present fault-tree models because they utilize a Markov solution. The utility of the new gates is demonstrated by presenting several models of the fault-tolerant parallel processor, which include both hot and cold spares.

Predicting Upwelling Radiance on the West Florida Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-31

National Science Foundation . The chemical and biological model includes the ability to simulate multiple groups of phytoplankton, multiple limiting nutrients, spectral light harvesting by phytoplankton, multiple particulate and dissolved degradational pools of organic material, and non-stoichometric carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silica, and iron dynamics. It also includes a complete spectral light model for the prediction of Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs). The coupling of the predicted IOP model (Ecosim 2.0) with robust radiative transfer model (Ecolight

Translational Control in Bone Marrow Failure

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

been made in using new tools to model granulopoiesis, including generation of patient-derived iPSC and CRISPR -Cas9 genome-editing technology to...in cell lines in patient-derived iPSC gene models, including using CRISPR genome editing, as overall described in Tidwell et al. 2014 and Nayak et...proxy for neutropenia in this cellular model system. 3h. Use patient-derived iPSC models and CRISPR /Cas9 genome-editing to generate a range of ELANE

Alpha1 LASSO data bundles Lamont, OK

DOE Data Explorer

Gustafson, William Jr; Vogelmann, Andrew; Endo, Satoshi; Toto, Tami; Xiao, Heng; Li, Zhijin; Cheng, Xiaoping; Krishna, Bhargavi (ORCID:000000018828528X)

2016-08-03

A data bundle is a unified package consisting of LASSO LES input and output, observations, evaluation diagnostics, and model skill scores. LES input includes model configuration information and forcing data. LES output includes profile statistics and full domain fields of cloud and environmental variables. Model evaluation data consists of LES output and ARM observations co-registered on the same grid and sampling frequency. Model performance is quantified by skill scores and diagnostics in terms of cloud and environmental variables.

Extend MANPADS M&S Capabilities to Include Energetic Materials, Fragmentation Effects, and Wing Flutter Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-31

MANPADS missile is modeled using LSDYNA . It has 187600 nodes, 52802 shell elements with 13 shell materials, 112200 solid elements with 1804 solid...model capability that includes impact, detonation, penetration, and wing flutter response. This work extends an existing body on body missile model...the missile as well as the expansion of the surrounding fluids was modeled in the Eulerian domain. The Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state was

A Generalized Radiation Model for Human Mobility: Spatial Scale, Searching Direction and Trip Constraint

PubMed Central

Kang, Chaogui; Liu, Yu; Guo, Diansheng; Qin, Kun

2015-01-01

We generalized the recently introduced “radiation model”, as an analog to the generalization of the classic “gravity model”, to consolidate its nature of universality for modeling diverse mobility systems. By imposing the appropriate scaling exponent λ, normalization factor κ and system constraints including searching direction and trip OD constraint, the generalized radiation model accurately captures real human movements in various scenarios and spatial scales, including two different countries and four different cities. Our analytical results also indicated that the generalized radiation model outperformed alternative mobility models in various empirical analyses. PMID:26600153

Systems and context modeling approach to requirements analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahuja, Amrit; Muralikrishna, G.; Patwari, Puneet; Subhrojyoti, C.; Swaminathan, N.; Vin, Harrick

2014-08-01

Ensuring completeness and correctness of the requirements for a complex system such as the SKA is challenging. Current system engineering practice includes developing a stakeholder needs definition, a concept of operations, and defining system requirements in terms of use cases and requirements statements. We present a method that enhances this current practice into a collection of system models with mutual consistency relationships. These include stakeholder goals, needs definition and system-of-interest models, together with a context model that participates in the consistency relationships among these models. We illustrate this approach by using it to analyze the SKA system requirements.

75 FR 62002 - Airworthiness Directives; Pilatus Aircraft Ltd. Models PC-6, PC-6-H1, PC-6-H2, PC-6/350, PC-6/350...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-07

... Limitations Section (ALS). For PC-6 models other than B2-H2 and B2- H4, no ALS at all is included in the AMM... and B2-H4 models. For PC-6 models other than B2-H2 and B2-H4, a new ALS document has been implemented... Limitations Section (ALS). For PC-6 models other than B2-H2 and B2- H4, no ALS at all is included in the AMM...

Computational Aeroelastic Analyses of a Low-Boom Supersonic Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Walter A.; Sanetrik, Mark D.; Chwalowski, Pawel; Connolly, Joseph

2015-01-01

An overview of NASA's Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) Aeroservoelasticity (ASE) element is provided with a focus on recent computational aeroelastic analyses of a low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed-Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. The overview includes details of the computational models developed to date including a linear finite element model (FEM), linear unsteady aerodynamic models, unstructured CFD grids, and CFD-based aeroelastic analyses. In addition, a summary of the work involving the development of aeroelastic reduced-order models (ROMs) and the development of an aero-propulso-servo-elastic (APSE) model is provided.

Model-based surgical planning and simulation of cranial base surgery.

PubMed

Abe, M; Tabuchi, K; Goto, M; Uchino, A

1998-11-01

Plastic skull models of seven individual patients were fabricated by stereolithography from three-dimensional data based on computed tomography bone images. Skull models were utilized for neurosurgical planning and simulation in the seven patients with cranial base lesions that were difficult to remove. Surgical approaches and areas of craniotomy were evaluated using the fabricated skull models. In preoperative simulations, hand-made models of the tumors, major vessels and nerves were placed in the skull models. Step-by-step simulation of surgical procedures was performed using actual surgical tools. The advantages of using skull models to plan and simulate cranial base surgery include a better understanding of anatomic relationships, preoperative evaluation of the proposed procedure, increased understanding by the patient and family, and improved educational experiences for residents and other medical staff. The disadvantages of using skull models include the time and cost of making the models. The skull models provide a more realistic tool that is easier to handle than computer-graphic images. Surgical simulation using models facilitates difficult cranial base surgery and may help reduce surgical complications.

The generation and use of numerical shape models for irregular Solar System objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonelli, Damon P.; Thomas, Peter C.; Carcich, Brian T.; Veverka, Joseph

1993-01-01

We describe a procedure that allows the efficient generation of numerical shape models for irregular Solar System objects, where a numerical model is simply a table of evenly spaced body-centered latitudes and longitudes and their associated radii. This modeling technique uses a combination of data from limbs, terminators, and control points, and produces shape models that have some important advantages over analytical shape models. Accurate numerical shape models make it feasible to study irregular objects with a wide range of standard scientific analysis techniques. These applications include the determination of moments of inertia and surface gravity, the mapping of surface locations and structural orientations, photometric measurement and analysis, the reprojection and mosaicking of digital images, and the generation of albedo maps. The capabilities of our modeling procedure are illustrated through the development of an accurate numerical shape model for Phobos and the production of a global, high-resolution, high-pass-filtered digital image mosaic of this Martian moon. Other irregular objects that have been modeled, or are being modeled, include the asteroid Gaspra and the satellites Deimos, Amalthea, Epimetheus, Janus, Hyperion, and Proteus.

Development of a hydraulic model of the human systemic circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, M. K.; Dharmalingham, R. K.

1999-01-01

Physical and numeric models of the human circulation are constructed for a number of objectives, including studies and training in physiologic control, interpretation of clinical observations, and testing of prosthetic cardiovascular devices. For many of these purposes it is important to quantitatively validate the dynamic response of the models in terms of the input impedance (Z = oscillatory pressure/oscillatory flow). To address this need, the authors developed an improved physical model. Using a computer study, the authors first identified the configuration of lumped parameter elements in a model of the systemic circulation; the result was a good match with human aortic input impedance with a minimum number of elements. Design, construction, and testing of a hydraulic model analogous to the computer model followed. Numeric results showed that a three element model with two resistors and one compliance produced reasonable matching without undue complication. The subsequent analogous hydraulic model included adjustable resistors incorporating a sliding plate to vary the flow area through a porous material and an adjustable compliance consisting of a variable-volume air chamber. The response of the hydraulic model compared favorably with other circulation models.

The Martian dust cycle: A proposed model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greeley, Ronald

1987-01-01

Despite more than a decade of study of martian dust storms, many of their characteristics and associated processes remain enigmatic, including the mechanisms for dust raising, modes of settling, and the nature of dust deposits. However, observations of Mars dust, considerations of terrestrial analogs, theoretical models, and laboratory simulations permit the formulation of a Martian Dust Cycle Model, which consists of three main processes: (1) suspension threshold, (2) transportation, and (3) deposition; two associated processes are also included: (4) dust removal and (5) the addition of new dust to the cycle. Although definitions vary, dust includes particles less than 4 to approx. 60 microns in diameter, which by terrestrial usage includes silt, loess, clay, and aerosolic dust particles. The dust cycle model is explained.

The NASA High Speed ASE Project: Computational Analyses of a Low-Boom Supersonic Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Walter A.; DeLaGarza, Antonio; Zink, Scott; Bounajem, Elias G.; Johnson, Christopher; Buonanno, Michael; Sanetrik, Mark D.; Yoo, Seung Y.; Kopasakis, George; Christhilf, David M.;

Laser interferometer space antenna dynamics and controls model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghami, Peiman G.; Tupper Hyde, T.

2003-05-01

A 19 degree-of-freedom (DOF) dynamics and controls model of a laser interferometer space antenna (LISA) spacecraft has been developed. This model is used to evaluate the feasibility of the dynamic pointing and positioning requirements of a typical LISA spacecraft. These requirements must be met for LISA to be able to successfully detect gravitational waves in the frequency band of interest (0.1-100 mHz). The 19-DOF model includes all rigid-body degrees of freedom. A number of disturbance sources, both internal and external, are included. Preliminary designs for the four control systems that comprise the LISA disturbance reduction system (DRS) have been completed and are included in the model. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate that the LISA pointing and positioning requirements are feasible and can be met.

Use of model calibration to achieve high accuracy in analysis of computer networks

DOEpatents

Frogner, Bjorn; Guarro, Sergio; Scharf, Guy

2004-05-11

A system and method are provided for creating a network performance prediction model, and calibrating the prediction model, through application of network load statistical analyses. The method includes characterizing the measured load on the network, which may include background load data obtained over time, and may further include directed load data representative of a transaction-level event. Probabilistic representations of load data are derived to characterize the statistical persistence of the network performance variability and to determine delays throughout the network. The probabilistic representations are applied to the network performance prediction model to adapt the model for accurate prediction of network performance. Certain embodiments of the method and system may be used for analysis of the performance of a distributed application characterized as data packet streams.

Maturity of hospital information systems: Most important influencing factors.

PubMed

Vidal Carvalho, João; Rocha, Álvaro; Abreu, António

2017-07-01

Maturity models facilitate organizational management, including information systems management, with hospital organizations no exception. This article puts forth a study carried out with a group of experts in the field of hospital information systems management with a view to identifying the main influencing factors to be included in an encompassing maturity model for hospital information systems management. This study is based on the results of a literature review, which identified maturity models in the health field and relevant influencing factors. The development of this model is justified to the extent that the available maturity models for the hospital information systems management field reveal multiple limitations, including lack of detail, absence of tools to determine their maturity and lack of characterization for stages of maturity structured by different influencing factors.

Simulation analysis of an integrated model for dynamic cellular manufacturing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Chunfeng; Luan, Shichao; Kong, Jili

2017-05-01

Application of dynamic cellular manufacturing system (DCMS) is a well-known strategy to improve manufacturing efficiency in the production environment with high variety and low volume of production. Often, neither the trade-off of inter and intra-cell material movements nor the trade-off of hiring and firing of operators are examined in details. This paper presents simulation results of an integrated mixed-integer model including sensitivity analysis for several numerical examples. The comprehensive model includes cell formation, inter and intracellular materials handling, inventory and backorder holding, operator assignment (including resource adjustment) and flexible production routing. The model considers multi-production planning with flexible resources (machines and operators) where each period has different demands. The results verify the validity and sensitivity of the proposed model using a genetic algorithm.

The NASA Marshall engineering thermosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickey, Michael Philip

1988-01-01

Described is the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) Model, which is a modified version of the MFSC/J70 Orbital Atmospheric Density Model as currently used in the J70MM program at MSFC. The modifications to the MFSC/J70 model required for the MET model are described, graphical and numerical examples of the models are included, as is a listing of the MET model computer program. Major differences between the numerical output from the MET model and the MFSC/J70 model are discussed.

A model of milk production in lactating dairy cows in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics.

PubMed

Johnson, I R; France, J; Cullen, B R

2016-02-01

A generic daily time-step model of a dairy cow, designed to be included in whole-system pasture simulation models, is described that includes growth, milk production, and lactation in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics. It is a development of a previously described animal growth and metabolism model that describes animal body composition in terms of protein, water, and fat, and energy dynamics in relation to growth requirements, resynthesis of degraded protein, and animal activity. This is further developed to include lactation and fetal growth. Intake is calculated in relation to stage of lactation, pasture availability, supplementary feed, and feed quality. Energy costs associated with urine N excretion and methane fermentation are accounted for. Milk production and fetal growth are then calculated in relation to the overall energy and nitrogen dynamics. The general behavior of the model is consistent with expected characteristics. Simulations using the model as part of a whole-system pasture simulation model (DairyMod) are compared with experimental data where good agreement between pasture, concentrate and forage intake, as well as milk production over 3 consecutive lactation cycles, is observed. The model is shown to be well suited for inclusion in large-scale system simulation models. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Igpet software for modeling igneous processes: examples of application using the open educational version

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Michael J.; Gazel, Esteban

2017-04-01

We provide here an open version of Igpet software, called t-Igpet to emphasize its application for teaching and research in forward modeling of igneous geochemistry. There are three programs, a norm utility, a petrologic mixing program using least squares and Igpet, a graphics program that includes many forms of numerical modeling. Igpet is a multifaceted tool that provides the following basic capabilities: igneous rock identification using the IUGS (International Union of Geological Sciences) classification and several supplementary diagrams; tectonic discrimination diagrams; pseudo-quaternary projections; least squares fitting of lines, polynomials and hyperbolae; magma mixing using two endmembers, histograms, x-y plots, ternary plots and spider-diagrams. The advanced capabilities of Igpet are multi-element mixing and magma evolution modeling. Mixing models are particularly useful for understanding the isotopic variations in rock suites that evolved by mixing different sources. The important melting models include, batch melting, fractional melting and aggregated fractional melting. Crystallization models include equilibrium and fractional crystallization and AFC (assimilation and fractional crystallization). Theses, reports and proposals concerning igneous petrology are improved by numerical modeling. For reviewed publications some elements of modeling are practically a requirement. Our intention in providing this software is to facilitate improved communication and lower entry barriers to research, especially for students.

Prediction of the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow, Poland using an 18-year data series.

PubMed

Dorota, Myszkowska

2013-03-01

The aim of the study was to construct the model forecasting the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow on the basis of an 18-year data series. The study was performed using the volumetric method (Lanzoni/Burkard trap). The 98/95 % method was used to calculate the pollen season. The Spearman's correlation test was applied to find the relationship between the meteorological parameters and pollen season characteristics. To construct the predictive model, the backward stepwise multiple regression analysis was used including the multi-collinearity of variables. The predictive models best fitted the pollen season start and end, especially models containing two independent variables. The peak concentration value was predicted with the higher prediction error. Also the accuracy of the models predicting the pollen season characteristics in 2009 was higher in comparison with 2010. Both, the multi-variable model and one-variable model for the beginning of the pollen season included air temperature during the last 10 days of February, while the multi-variable model also included humidity at the beginning of April. The models forecasting the end of the pollen season were based on temperature in March-April, while the peak day was predicted using the temperature during the last 10 days of March.

RRAWFLOW: Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (v1.11)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, A. J.

2014-09-01

The Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (RRAWFLOW) is a lumped-parameter model that simulates streamflow, springflow, groundwater level, solute transport, or cave drip for a measurement point in response to a system input of precipitation, recharge, or solute injection. The RRAWFLOW open-source code is written in the R language and is included in the Supplement to this article along with an example model of springflow. RRAWFLOW includes a time-series process to estimate recharge from precipitation and simulates the response to recharge by convolution; i.e., the unit hydrograph approach. Gamma functions are used for estimation of parametric impulse-response functions (IRFs); a combination of two gamma functions results in a double-peaked IRF. A spline fit to a set of control points is introduced as a new method for estimation of nonparametric IRFs. Other options include the use of user-defined IRFs and different methods to simulate time-variant systems. For many applications, lumped models simulate the system response with equal accuracy to that of distributed models, but moreover, the ease of model construction and calibration of lumped models makes them a good choice for many applications. RRAWFLOW provides professional hydrologists and students with an accessible and versatile tool for lumped-parameter modeling.

A unified analytical drain current model for Double-Gate Junctionless Field-Effect Transistors including short channel effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raksharam; Dutta, Aloke K.

2017-04-01

In this paper, a unified analytical model for the drain current of a symmetric Double-Gate Junctionless Field-Effect Transistor (DG-JLFET) is presented. The operation of the device has been classified into four modes: subthreshold, semi-depleted, accumulation, and hybrid; with the main focus of this work being on the accumulation mode, which has not been dealt with in detail so far in the literature. A physics-based model, using a simplified one-dimensional approach, has been developed for this mode, and it has been successfully integrated with the model for the hybrid mode. It also includes the effect of carrier mobility degradation due to the transverse electric field, which was hitherto missing in the earlier models reported in the literature. The piece-wise models have been unified using suitable interpolation functions. In addition, the model includes two most important short-channel effects pertaining to DG-JLFETs, namely the Drain Induced Barrier Lowering (DIBL) and the Subthreshold Swing (SS) degradation. The model is completely analytical, and is thus computationally highly efficient. The results of our model have shown an excellent match with those obtained from TCAD simulations for both long- and short-channel devices, as well as with the experimental data reported in the literature.

CHROMOSPHERIC MODELS AND THE OXYGEN ABUNDANCE IN GIANT STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dupree, A. K.; Avrett, E. H.; Kurucz, R. L., E-mail: dupree@cfa.harvard.edu

Realistic stellar atmospheric models of two typical metal-poor giant stars in Omega Centauri, which include a chromosphere (CHR), influence the formation of optical lines of O i: the forbidden lines (λ6300, λ6363) and the infrared triplet (λλ7771−7775). One-dimensional semi-empirical non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) models are constructed based on observed Balmer lines. A full non-LTE formulation is applied for evaluating the line strengths of O i, including photoionization by the Lyman continuum and photoexcitation by Lyα and Lyβ. Chromospheric models (CHR) yield forbidden oxygen transitions that are stronger than those in radiative/convective equilibrium (RCE) models. The triplet oxygen lines from highmore » levels also appear stronger than those produced in an RCE model. The inferred oxygen abundance from realistic CHR models for these two stars is decreased by factors of ∼3 as compared to values derived from RCE models. A lower oxygen abundance suggests that intermediate-mass AGB stars contribute to the observed abundance pattern in globular clusters. A change in the oxygen abundance of metal-poor field giants could affect models of deep mixing episodes on the red giant branch. Changes in the oxygen abundance can impact other abundance determinations that are critical to astrophysics, including chemical tagging techniques and galactic chemical evolution.« less

Mathematical models of thermoregulation and heat transfer in mammals. A compendium of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shitzer, A.

1972-01-01

An annotated compendium on mathematical modeling of mammal thermoregulation systems is presented. Author abstracts, tables containing the more used mathematical models, solutions to these models, and each thermoregulation mechanism considered are included.

POEM: PESTICIDE ORCHARD ECOSYSTEM MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The Pesticide Orchard Ecosystem Model (POEM) is a mathematical model of organophosphate pesticide movement in an apple orchard ecosystem. In addition submodels on invertebrate population dynamics are included. The fate model allows the user to select the pesticide, its applicatio...

Bond Graph Model of Cerebral Circulation: Toward Clinically Feasible Systemic Blood Flow Simulations.

PubMed

Safaei, Soroush; Blanco, Pablo J; Müller, Lucas O; Hellevik, Leif R; Hunter, Peter J

2018-01-01

We propose a detailed CellML model of the human cerebral circulation that runs faster than real time on a desktop computer and is designed for use in clinical settings when the speed of response is important. A lumped parameter mathematical model, which is based on a one-dimensional formulation of the flow of an incompressible fluid in distensible vessels, is constructed using a bond graph formulation to ensure mass conservation and energy conservation. The model includes arterial vessels with geometric and anatomical data based on the ADAN circulation model. The peripheral beds are represented by lumped parameter compartments. We compare the hemodynamics predicted by the bond graph formulation of the cerebral circulation with that given by a classical one-dimensional Navier-Stokes model working on top of the whole-body ADAN model. Outputs from the bond graph model, including the pressure and flow signatures and blood volumes, are compared with physiological data.

A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Qureshi, M. Ejaz; Jakeman, Anthony J.

2012-08-01

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.

Advances in cognitive theory and therapy: the generic cognitive model.

PubMed

Beck, Aaron T; Haigh, Emily A P

2014-01-01

For over 50 years, Beck's cognitive model has provided an evidence-based way to conceptualize and treat psychological disorders. The generic cognitive model represents a set of common principles that can be applied across the spectrum of psychological disorders. The updated theoretical model provides a framework for addressing significant questions regarding the phenomenology of disorders not explained in previous iterations of the original model. New additions to the theory include continuity of adaptive and maladaptive function, dual information processing, energizing of schemas, and attentional focus. The model includes a theory of modes, an organization of schemas relevant to expectancies, self-evaluations, rules, and memories. A description of the new theoretical model is followed by a presentation of the corresponding applied model, which provides a template for conceptualizing a specific disorder and formulating a case. The focus on beliefs differentiates disorders and provides a target for treatment. A variety of interventions are described.

Heuristics for the Hodgkin-Huxley system.

PubMed

Hoppensteadt, Frank

2013-09-01

Hodgkin and Huxley (HH) discovered that voltages control ionic currents in nerve membranes. This led them to describe electrical activity in a neuronal membrane patch in terms of an electronic circuit whose characteristics were determined using empirical data. Due to the complexity of this model, a variety of heuristics, including relaxation oscillator circuits and integrate-and-fire models, have been used to investigate activity in neurons, and these simpler models have been successful in suggesting experiments and explaining observations. Connections between most of the simpler models had not been made clear until recently. Shown here are connections between these heuristics and the full HH model. In particular, we study a new model (Type III circuit): It includes the van der Pol-based models; it can be approximated by a simple integrate-and-fire model; and it creates voltages and currents that correspond, respectively, to the h and V components of the HH system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Iterative model building, structure refinement and density modification with the PHENIX AutoBuild wizard.

PubMed

Terwilliger, Thomas C; Grosse-Kunstleve, Ralf W; Afonine, Pavel V; Moriarty, Nigel W; Zwart, Peter H; Hung, Li Wei; Read, Randy J; Adams, Paul D

2008-01-01

The PHENIX AutoBuild wizard is a highly automated tool for iterative model building, structure refinement and density modification using RESOLVE model building, RESOLVE statistical density modification and phenix.refine structure refinement. Recent advances in the AutoBuild wizard and phenix.refine include automated detection and application of NCS from models as they are built, extensive model-completion algorithms and automated solvent-molecule picking. Model-completion algorithms in the AutoBuild wizard include loop building, crossovers between chains in different models of a structure and side-chain optimization. The AutoBuild wizard has been applied to a set of 48 structures at resolutions ranging from 1.1 to 3.2 A, resulting in a mean R factor of 0.24 and a mean free R factor of 0.29. The R factor of the final model is dependent on the quality of the starting electron density and is relatively independent of resolution.

A Continuum Damage Mechanics Model to Predict Kink-Band Propagation Using Deformation Gradient Tensor Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergan, Andrew C.; Leone, Frank A., Jr.

2016-01-01

A new model is proposed that represents the kinematics of kink-band formation and propagation within the framework of a mesoscale continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model. The model uses the recently proposed deformation gradient decomposition approach to represent a kink band as a displacement jump via a cohesive interface that is embedded in an elastic bulk material. The model is capable of representing the combination of matrix failure in the frame of a misaligned fiber and instability due to shear nonlinearity. In contrast to conventional linear or bilinear strain softening laws used in most mesoscale CDM models for longitudinal compression, the constitutive response of the proposed model includes features predicted by detailed micromechanical models. These features include: 1) the rotational kinematics of the kink band, 2) an instability when the peak load is reached, and 3) a nonzero plateau stress under large strains.

Exact solution for the time evolution of network rewiring models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, T. S.; Plato, A. D. K.

2007-05-01

We consider the rewiring of a bipartite graph using a mixture of random and preferential attachment. The full mean-field equations for the degree distribution and its generating function are given. The exact solution of these equations for all finite parameter values at any time is found in terms of standard functions. It is demonstrated that these solutions are an excellent fit to numerical simulations of the model. We discuss the relationship between our model and several others in the literature, including examples of urn, backgammon, and balls-in-boxes models, the Watts and Strogatz rewiring problem, and some models of zero range processes. Our model is also equivalent to those used in various applications including cultural transmission, family name and gene frequencies, glasses, and wealth distributions. Finally some Voter models and an example of a minority game also show features described by our model.

An efficient descriptor model for designing materials for solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, Fahhad H.; Rashkeev, Sergey N.; El-Mellouhi, Fedwa; Lüthi, Hans P.; Tabet, Nouar; Kais, Sabre

2015-11-01

An efficient descriptor model for fast screening of potential materials for solar cell applications is presented. It works for both excitonic and non-excitonic solar cells materials, and in addition to the energy gap it includes the absorption spectrum (α(E)) of the material. The charge transport properties of the explored materials are modelled using the characteristic diffusion length (Ld) determined for the respective family of compounds. The presented model surpasses the widely used Scharber model developed for bulk heterojunction solar cells. Using published experimental data, we show that the presented model is more accurate in predicting the achievable efficiencies. To model both excitonic and non-excitonic systems, two different sets of parameters are used to account for the different modes of operation. The analysis of the presented descriptor model clearly shows the benefit of including α(E) and Ld in view of improved screening results.

Numerical Simulation of Liquid Jet Atomization Including Turbulence Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, Huu P.; Chen, C. P.; Balasubramanyam, M. S.

2005-01-01

This paper describes numerical implementation of a newly developed hybrid model, T-blob/T-TAB, into an existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program for primary and secondary breakup simulation of liquid jet atomization. This model extend two widely used models, the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz (blob model) and the Taylor-Analogy-Breakup (TAB) secondary droplet breakup by O'Rourke and Amsden to include turbulence effects. In the primary breakup model, the level of the turbulence effect on the liquid breakup depends on the characteristic scales and the initial flow conditions. For the secondary breakup, an additional turbulence force acted on parent drops is modeled and integrated into the TAB governing equation. Several assessment studies are presented and the results indicate that the existing KH and TAB models tend to under-predict the product drop size and spray angle, while the current model provides superior results when compared with the measured data.

A nonlinear interface model applied to masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebon, Frédéric; Raffa, Maria Letizia; Rizzoni, Raffaella

2015-12-01

In this paper, a new imperfect interface model is presented. The model includes finite strains, micro-cracks and smooth roughness. The model is consistently derived by coupling a homogenization approach for micro-cracked media and arguments of asymptotic analysis. The model is applied to brick/mortar interfaces. Numerical results are presented.

AAC Modeling with the iPad during Shared Storybook Reading Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sennott, Samuel C.; Mason, Linda H.

2016-01-01

This pilot study describes an intervention package, MODELER for Read and Talk, designed to provide enriched language interaction for children with complex communication needs who require augmentative and alternative communication (AAC). MODELER (Model, Encourage, Respond) includes (a) modeling AAC as you speak, (b) encouraging communication…

New model performance index for engineering design of control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1970-01-01

Performance index includes a model representing linear control-system design specifications. Based on a geometric criterion for approximation of the model by the actual system, the index can be interpreted directly in terms of the desired system response model without actually having the model's time response.

Modelling in Primary School: Constructing Conceptual Models and Making Sense of Fractions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh; Peled, Irit

2017-01-01

This article describes sixth-grade students' engagement in two model-eliciting activities offering students the opportunity to construct mathematical models. The findings show that students utilized their knowledge of fractions including conceptual and procedural knowledge in constructing mathematical models for the given situations. Some students…

Operation of the computer model for microenvironment atomic oxygen exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourassa, R. J.; Gillis, J. R.; Gruenbaum, P. E.

1995-01-01

A computer model for microenvironment atomic oxygen exposure has been developed to extend atomic oxygen modeling capability to include shadowing and reflections. The model uses average exposure conditions established by the direct exposure model and extends the application of these conditions to treat surfaces of arbitrary shape and orientation.

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

A robust and flexible Geospatial Modeling Interface (GMI) for environmental model deployment and evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper provides an overview of the GMI (Geospatial Modeling Interface) simulation framework for environmental model deployment and assessment. GMI currently provides access to multiple environmental models including AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W), Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis 2 (NLEA...

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Portone, Teresa; Niederhaus, John Henry; Sanchez, Jason James

This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

Chemically Aware Model Builder (camb): an R package for property and bioactivity modelling of small molecules.

PubMed

Murrell, Daniel S; Cortes-Ciriano, Isidro; van Westen, Gerard J P; Stott, Ian P; Bender, Andreas; Malliavin, Thérèse E; Glen, Robert C

2015-01-01

In silico predictive models have proved to be valuable for the optimisation of compound potency, selectivity and safety profiles in the drug discovery process. camb is an R package that provides an environment for the rapid generation of quantitative Structure-Property and Structure-Activity models for small molecules (including QSAR, QSPR, QSAM, PCM) and is aimed at both advanced and beginner R users. camb's capabilities include the standardisation of chemical structure representation, computation of 905 one-dimensional and 14 fingerprint type descriptors for small molecules, 8 types of amino acid descriptors, 13 whole protein sequence descriptors, filtering methods for feature selection, generation of predictive models (using an interface to the R package caret), as well as techniques to create model ensembles using techniques from the R package caretEnsemble). Results can be visualised through high-quality, customisable plots (R package ggplot2). Overall, camb constitutes an open-source framework to perform the following steps: (1) compound standardisation, (2) molecular and protein descriptor calculation, (3) descriptor pre-processing and model training, visualisation and validation, and (4) bioactivity/property prediction for new molecules. camb aims to speed model generation, in order to provide reproducibility and tests of robustness. QSPR and proteochemometric case studies are included which demonstrate camb's application.Graphical abstractFrom compounds and data to models: a complete model building workflow in one package.

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2015, CMAQ version 5.1 was released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.0.2 and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1 simulations were performed to assess the impact of these improvements on the model results. These results will be presented, along with a base evaluation of the performance of the CMAQv5.1 modeling system against available surface and upper-air measurements available during the time period simulated. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, proces

Development and evaluation of an ammonia bidirectional flux parameterization for air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleim, Jonathan E.; Bash, Jesse O.; Walker, John T.; Cooter, Ellen J.

2013-05-01

is an important contributor to particulate matter in the atmosphere and can significantly impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Surface exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere is a key part of the ammonia cycle. New modeling techniques are being developed for use in air quality models that replace current ammonia emissions from fertilized crops and ammonia dry deposition with a bidirectional surface flux model including linkage to a detailed biogeochemical and farm management model. Recent field studies involving surface flux measurements over crops that predominate in North America have been crucial for extending earlier bidirectional flux models toward more realistic treatment of NH3 fluxes for croplands. Comparisons of the ammonia bidirection flux algorithm to both lightly fertilized soybeans and heavily fertilized corn demonstrate that the model can capture the magnitude and dynamics of observed ammonia fluxes, both net deposition and evasion, over a range of conditions with overall biases on the order of the uncertainty of the measurements. However, successful application to the field experiment in heavily fertilized corn required substantial modification of the model to include new parameterizations for in-soil diffusion resistance, ground quasi-laminar boundary layer resistance, and revised cuticular resistance that is dependent on in-canopy NH3 concentration and RH at the leaf surface. This new bidirectional flux algorithm has been incorporated in an air quality modeling system, which also includes an implementation of a soil nitrification model.

Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J.; Conroy, Charlie

Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improvemore » estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kornreich, Drew E; Vaidya, Rajendra U; Ammerman, Curtt N

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) is a novel overarching approach to bridge length and time scales in computational materials science and engineering. This approach integrates all elements of multi-scale modeling (including various empirical and science-based models) with materials informatics to provide users the opportunity to tailor material selections based on stringent application needs. Typically, materials engineering has focused on structural requirements (stress, strain, modulus, fracture toughness etc.) while multi-scale modeling has been science focused (mechanical threshold strength model, grain-size models, solid-solution strengthening models etc.). Materials informatics (mechanical property inventories) on the other hand, is extensively data focused. All of thesemore » elements are combined within the framework of ICME to create architecture for the development, selection and design new composite materials for challenging environments. We propose development of the foundations for applying ICME to composite materials development for nuclear and high-radiation environments (including nuclear-fusion energy reactors, nuclear-fission reactors, and accelerators). We expect to combine all elements of current material models (including thermo-mechanical and finite-element models) into the ICME framework. This will be accomplished through the use of a various mathematical modeling constructs. These constructs will allow the integration of constituent models, which in tum would allow us to use the adaptive strengths of using a combinatorial scheme (fabrication and computational) for creating new composite materials. A sample problem where these concepts are used is provided in this summary.« less

The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, C.; Walker, R.; Klinkrad, H.

Long-term debris environment models play a vital role in furthering our understanding of the future debris environment, and in aiding the determination of a strategy to preserve the Earth orbital environment for future use. By their very nature these models have to make certain assumptions to enable informative future projections to be made. Examples of these assumptions include the projection of future traffic, including launch and explosion rates, and the methodology used to simulate break-up events. To ensure a sound basis for future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of these models to variations in key assumptions is examined. The DELTA (Debris Environment Long Term Analysis) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency, allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. Extensive analyses with this model have been performed under the auspices of the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook and following the recent upgrade of the model to DELTA 3.0. This paper draws on these analyses to present the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically the paper will address the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.

A non-classical Mindlin plate model incorporating microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects.

PubMed

Gao, X-L; Zhang, G Y

2016-07-01

A non-classical model for a Mindlin plate resting on an elastic foundation is developed in a general form using a modified couple stress theory, a surface elasticity theory and a two-parameter Winkler-Pasternak foundation model. It includes all five kinematic variables possible for a Mindlin plate. The equations of motion and the complete boundary conditions are obtained simultaneously through a variational formulation based on Hamilton's principle, and the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are treated in a unified manner. The newly developed model contains one material length-scale parameter to describe the microstructure effect, three surface elastic constants to account for the surface energy effect, and two foundation parameters to capture the foundation effect. The current non-classical plate model reduces to its classical elasticity-based counterpart when the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are all suppressed. In addition, the new model includes the Mindlin plate models considering the microstructure dependence or the surface energy effect or the foundation influence alone as special cases, recovers the Kirchhoff plate model incorporating the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects, and degenerates to the Timoshenko beam model including the microstructure effect. To illustrate the new Mindlin plate model, the static bending and free vibration problems of a simply supported rectangular plate are analytically solved by directly applying the general formulae derived.

A non-classical Mindlin plate model incorporating microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects

PubMed Central

Zhang, G. Y.

2016-01-01

A non-classical model for a Mindlin plate resting on an elastic foundation is developed in a general form using a modified couple stress theory, a surface elasticity theory and a two-parameter Winkler–Pasternak foundation model. It includes all five kinematic variables possible for a Mindlin plate. The equations of motion and the complete boundary conditions are obtained simultaneously through a variational formulation based on Hamilton's principle, and the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are treated in a unified manner. The newly developed model contains one material length-scale parameter to describe the microstructure effect, three surface elastic constants to account for the surface energy effect, and two foundation parameters to capture the foundation effect. The current non-classical plate model reduces to its classical elasticity-based counterpart when the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are all suppressed. In addition, the new model includes the Mindlin plate models considering the microstructure dependence or the surface energy effect or the foundation influence alone as special cases, recovers the Kirchhoff plate model incorporating the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects, and degenerates to the Timoshenko beam model including the microstructure effect. To illustrate the new Mindlin plate model, the static bending and free vibration problems of a simply supported rectangular plate are analytically solved by directly applying the general formulae derived. PMID:27493578

Simplifying and upscaling water resources systems models that combine natural and engineered components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntyre, N.; Keir, G.

2014-12-01

Water supply systems typically encompass components of both natural systems (e.g. catchment runoff, aquifer interception) and engineered systems (e.g. process equipment, water storages and transfers). Many physical processes of varying spatial and temporal scales are contained within these hybrid systems models. The need to aggregate and simplify system components has been recognised for reasons of parsimony and comprehensibility; and the use of probabilistic methods for modelling water-related risks also prompts the need to seek computationally efficient up-scaled conceptualisations. How to manage the up-scaling errors in such hybrid systems models has not been well-explored, compared to research in the hydrological process domain. Particular challenges include the non-linearity introduced by decision thresholds and non-linear relations between water use, water quality, and discharge strategies. Using a case study of a mining region, we explore the nature of up-scaling errors in water use, water quality and discharge, and we illustrate an approach to identification of a scale-adjusted model including an error model. Ways forward for efficient modelling of such complex, hybrid systems are discussed, including interactions with human, energy and carbon systems models.

Stratosphere-resolving CMIP5 models simulate different changes in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rea, Gloria; Riccio, Angelo; Fierli, Federico; Cairo, Francesco; Cagnazzo, Chiara

2018-03-01

This work documents long-term changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation in the austral spring-summer season in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, showing that those changes are larger in magnitude and closer to ERA-Interim and other reanalyses if models include a dynamical representation of the stratosphere. Specifically, models with a high-top and included dynamical and—in some cases—chemical feedbacks within the stratosphere better simulate the lower stratospheric cooling observed over 1979-2001 and strongly driven by ozone depletion, when compared to the other models. This occurs because high-top models can fully capture the stratospheric large scale circulation response to the ozone-induced cooling. Interestingly, this difference is also found at the surface for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes, even though all model categories tend to underestimate SAM trends over those decades. In this analysis, models including a proper dynamical stratosphere are more sensitive to lower stratospheric cooling in their tropospheric circulation response. After a brief discussion of two RCP scenarios, our study confirms that at least for large changes in the extratropical regions, stratospheric changes induced by external forcing have to be properly simulated, as they are important drivers of tropospheric climate variations.

Advanced simulation noise model for modern fighter aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikelheimer, Bruce

2005-09-01

NoiseMap currently represents the state of the art for military airfield noise analysis. While this model is sufficient for the current fleet of aircraft, it has limits in its capability to model the new generation of fighter aircraft like the JSF and the F-22. These aircraft's high-powered engines produce noise with significant nonlinear content. Combining this with their ability to vector the thrust means they have noise characteristics that are outside of the basic modeling assumptions of the currently available noise models. Wyle Laboratories, Penn State University, and University of Alabama are in the process of developing a new noise propagation model for the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. Source characterization will be through complete spheres (or hemispheres if there is not sufficient data) for each aircraft state (including thrust vector angles). Fixed and rotor wing aircraft will be included. Broadband, narrowband, and pure tone propagation will be included. The model will account for complex terrain and weather effects, as well as the effects of nonlinear propagation. It will be a complete model capable of handling a range of noise sources from small subsonic general aviation aircraft to the latest fighter aircraft like the JSF.

Revising a conceptual model of partnership and sustainability in global health.

PubMed

Upvall, Michele J; Leffers, Jeanne M

2018-05-01

Models to guide global health partnerships are rare in the nursing literature. The Conceptual Model for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health while significant was based on Western perspectives. The purpose of this study was to revise the model to include the voice of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. Grounded theory was used to maintain fidelity with the design in the original model. A purposive sample of 15 participants from a variety of countries in Africa, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and having extensive experience in global health partnerships were interviewed. Skype recordings and in-person interviews were audiotaped using the same questions as the original study. Theoretical coding and a comparison of results with the original study was completed independently by the researchers. The process of global health partnerships was expanded from the original model to include engagement processes and processes for ongoing partnership development. New concepts of Transparency, Expanded World View, and Accompaniment were included as well as three broad themes: Geopolitical Influence, Power differential/Inequities, and Collegial Friendships. The revised conceptual model embodies a more comprehensive model of global health partnerships with representation of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Escaping the snare of chronological growth and launching a free curve alternative: general deviance as latent growth model.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip Karl; Jackson, Kristina M

2013-08-01

Researchers studying longitudinal relationships among multiple problem behaviors sometimes characterize autoregressive relationships across constructs as indicating "protective" or "launch" factors or as "developmental snares." These terms are used to indicate that initial or intermediary states of one problem behavior subsequently inhibit or promote some other problem behavior. Such models are contrasted with models of "general deviance" over time in which all problem behaviors are viewed as indicators of a common linear trajectory. When fit of the "general deviance" model is poor and fit of one or more autoregressive models is good, this is taken as support for the inhibitory or enhancing effect of one construct on another. In this paper, we argue that researchers consider competing models of growth before comparing deviance and time-bound models. Specifically, we propose use of the free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model (Meredith & Tisak, 1990) as a general model to typify change in a construct over time. The FCSI model includes, as nested special cases, several statistical models often used for prospective data, such as linear slope intercept models, repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance, various one-factor models, and hierarchical linear models. When considering models involving multiple constructs, we argue the construct of "general deviance" can be expressed as a single-trait multimethod model, permitting a characterization of the deviance construct over time without requiring restrictive assumptions about the form of growth over time. As an example, prospective assessments of problem behaviors from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (Silva & Stanton, 1996) are considered and contrasted with earlier analyses of Hussong, Curran, Moffitt, and Caspi (2008), which supported launch and snare hypotheses. For antisocial behavior, the FCSI model fit better than other models, including the linear chronometric growth curve model used by Hussong et al. For models including multiple constructs, a general deviance model involving a single trait and multimethod factors (or a corresponding hierarchical factor model) fit the data better than either the "snares" alternatives or the general deviance model previously considered by Hussong et al. Taken together, the analyses support the view that linkages and turning points cannot be contrasted with general deviance models absent additional experimental intervention or control.

Escaping the snare of chronological growth and launching a free curve alternative: General deviance as latent growth model

PubMed Central

WOOD, PHILLIP KARL; JACKSON, KRISTINA M.

2014-01-01

Researchers studying longitudinal relationships among multiple problem behaviors sometimes characterize autoregressive relationships across constructs as indicating “protective” or “launch” factors or as “developmental snares.” These terms are used to indicate that initial or intermediary states of one problem behavior subsequently inhibit or promote some other problem behavior. Such models are contrasted with models of “general deviance” over time in which all problem behaviors are viewed as indicators of a common linear trajectory. When fit of the “general deviance” model is poor and fit of one or more autoregressive models is good, this is taken as support for the inhibitory or enhancing effect of one construct on another. In this paper, we argue that researchers consider competing models of growth before comparing deviance and time-bound models. Specifically, we propose use of the free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model (Meredith & Tisak, 1990) as a general model to typify change in a construct over time. The FCSI model includes, as nested special cases, several statistical models often used for prospective data, such as linear slope intercept models, repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance, various one-factor models, and hierarchical linear models. When considering models involving multiple constructs, we argue the construct of “general deviance” can be expressed as a single-trait multimethod model, permitting a characterization of the deviance construct over time without requiring restrictive assumptions about the form of growth over time. As an example, prospective assessments of problem behaviors from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (Silva & Stanton, 1996) are considered and contrasted with earlier analyses of Hussong, Curran, Moffitt, and Caspi (2008), which supported launch and snare hypotheses. For antisocial behavior, the FCSI model fit better than other models, including the linear chronometric growth curve model used by Hussong et al. For models including multiple constructs, a general deviance model involving a single trait and multimethod factors (or a corresponding hierarchical factor model) fit the data better than either the “snares” alternatives or the general deviance model previously considered by Hussong et al. Taken together, the analyses support the view that linkages and turning points cannot be contrasted with general deviance models absent additional experimental intervention or control. PMID:23880389

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Huang, Heyun; Windig, Jack J; Vereijken, Addie; Calus, Mario P L

2014-11-06

Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values. When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction. Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional occurrence of large negative accuracies when the evaluated line was not included in the training dataset. Furthermore, when using a multi-line training dataset, non-linear models provided information on the genotype data that was complementary to the linear models, which indicates that the underlying data distributions of the three studied lines were indeed heterogeneous.

Developing Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality.

PubMed

Wen, Zhang; Guo, Ya; Xu, Banghao; Xiao, Kaiyin; Peng, Tao; Peng, Minhao

2016-04-01

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is still a major complication after pancreatic surgery, despite improvements of surgical technique and perioperative management. We sought to systematically review and critically access the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify articles published before January 1, 2015, which described the development of models to predict the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula. We extracted information of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, definition of postoperative pancreatic fistula, risk predictor selection, missing data, model-building strategies, and model performance. Seven studies of developing seven risk prediction models were included. In three studies (42 %), the number of events per variable was less than 10. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from 9 to 32. Five studies (71 %) reported using univariate screening, which was not recommended in building a multivariate model, to reduce the number of risk predictors. Six risk prediction models (86 %) were developed by categorizing all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not mentioned in all studies. We found use of inappropriate methods that could endanger the development of model, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorization of continuous risk predictors, and model validation. The use of inappropriate methods affects the reliability and the accuracy of the probability estimates of predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula.

A biophysical model of kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) berry development

PubMed Central

Hall, Alistair J.

2013-01-01

A model of kiwifruit berry development is presented, building on the model of Fishman and Génard used for peach fruit. That model has been extended to incorporate a number of important features of kiwifruit growth. First, the kiwifruit berry is attached to the stem through a pedicel/receptacle complex which contributes significantly to the hydraulic resistance between the stem and the fruit, and this resistance changes considerably during the season. Second, much of the carbohydrate in kiwifruit berries is stored as starch until the fruit matures late in the season, when the starch hydrolyses to soluble sugars. This starch storage has a major effect on the osmotic potential of the fruit, so an existing model of kiwifruit starch dynamics was included in the model. Using previously published approaches, we also included elasticity and extended the modelling period to cover both the cell division and cell expansion phases of growth. The resulting model showed close simulation of field observations of fresh weight, dry matter, starch, and soluble solids in kiwifruit. Comparison with continuous measurements of fruit diameter confirmed that elasticity was needed to adequately simulate observed diurnal variation in fruit size. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the model is particularly sensitive to variation in inputs relating to water (stem water potential and the humidity of the air), and to parameters controlling cell expansion (cell wall extensibility). Some limitations in the model structure were identified, suggesting that a revised model including current apoplastic/symplastic concepts needs to be developed. PMID:24123250

A biophysical model of kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) berry development.

PubMed

Hall, Alistair J; Minchin, Peter E H; Clearwater, Michael J; Génard, Michel

2013-12-01

A model of kiwifruit berry development is presented, building on the model of Fishman and Génard used for peach fruit. That model has been extended to incorporate a number of important features of kiwifruit growth. First, the kiwifruit berry is attached to the stem through a pedicel/receptacle complex which contributes significantly to the hydraulic resistance between the stem and the fruit, and this resistance changes considerably during the season. Second, much of the carbohydrate in kiwifruit berries is stored as starch until the fruit matures late in the season, when the starch hydrolyses to soluble sugars. This starch storage has a major effect on the osmotic potential of the fruit, so an existing model of kiwifruit starch dynamics was included in the model. Using previously published approaches, we also included elasticity and extended the modelling period to cover both the cell division and cell expansion phases of growth. The resulting model showed close simulation of field observations of fresh weight, dry matter, starch, and soluble solids in kiwifruit. Comparison with continuous measurements of fruit diameter confirmed that elasticity was needed to adequately simulate observed diurnal variation in fruit size. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the model is particularly sensitive to variation in inputs relating to water (stem water potential and the humidity of the air), and to parameters controlling cell expansion (cell wall extensibility). Some limitations in the model structure were identified, suggesting that a revised model including current apoplastic/symplastic concepts needs to be developed.

Southern Ocean warming due to human influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.

2006-10-01

I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.

Space Shuttle propulsion performance reconstruction from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, Robert M.

1989-01-01

The aplication of extended Kalman filtering to estimating Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) performance, specific impulse, from flight data in a post-flight processing computer program. The flight data used includes inertial platform acceleration, SRB head pressure, and ground based radar tracking data. The key feature in this application is the model used for the SRBs, which represents a reference quasi-static internal ballistics model normalized to the propellant burn depth. Dynamic states of mass overboard and propellant burn depth are included in the filter model to account for real-time deviations from the reference model used. Aerodynamic, plume, wind and main engine uncertainties are included.

Why involve families in acute mental healthcare? A collaborative conceptual review.

PubMed

Dirik, Aysegul; Sandhu, Sima; Giacco, Domenico; Barrett, Katherine; Bennison, Gerry; Collinson, Sue; Priebe, Stefan

2017-09-27

Family involvement is strongly recommended in clinical guidelines but suffers from poor implementation. To explore this topic at a conceptual level, a multidisciplinary review team including academics, clinicians and individuals with lived experience undertook a review to explore the theoretical background of family involvement models in acute mental health treatment and how this relates to their delivery. A conceptual review was undertaken, including a systematic search and narrative synthesis. Included family models were mapped onto the most commonly referenced underlying theories: the diathesis-stress model, systems theories and postmodern theories of mental health. Common components of the models were summarised and compared. Lastly, a thematic analysis was undertaken to explore the role of patients and families in the delivery of the approaches. General adult acute mental health treatment. Six distinct family involvement models were identified: Calgary Family Assessment and Intervention Models, ERIC (Equipe Rapide d'Intervention de Crise), Family Psychoeducation Models, Family Systems Approach, Open Dialogue and the Somerset Model. Findings indicated that despite wide variation in the theoretical models underlying family involvement models, there were many commonalities in their components, such as a focus on communication, language use and joint decision-making. Thematic analysis of the role of patients and families identified several issues for implementation. This included potential harms that could emerge during delivery of the models, such as imposing linear 'patient-carer' relationships and the risk of perceived coercion. We conclude that future staff training may benefit from discussing the chosen family involvement model within the context of other theories of mental health. This may help to clarify the underlying purpose of family involvement and address the diverse needs and world views of patients, families and professionals in acute settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Strengthening the weak link: Built Environment modelling for loss analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, I.

2012-04-01

Methods to analyse insured losses from a range of natural perils, including pricing by primary insurers and catastrophe modelling by reinsurers, typically lack sufficient exposure information. Understanding the hazard intensity in terms of spatial severity and frequency is only the first step towards quantifying the risk of a catastrophic event. For any given event we need to know: Are any structures affected? What type of buildings are they? How much damaged occurred? How much will the repairs cost? To achieve this, detailed exposure information is required to assess the likely damage and to effectively calculate the resultant loss. Modelling exposures in the Built Environment therefore plays as important a role in understanding re/insurance risk as characterising the physical hazard. Across both primary insurance books and aggregated reinsurance portfolios, the location of a property (a risk) and its monetary value is typically known. Exactly what that risk is in terms of detailed property descriptors including structure type and rebuild cost - and therefore its vulnerability to loss - is often omitted. This data deficiency is a primary source of variations between modelled losses and the actual claims value. Built Environment models are therefore required at a high resolution to describe building attributes that relate vulnerability to property damage. However, national-scale household-level datasets are often not computationally practical in catastrophe models and data must be aggregated. In order to provide more accurate risk analysis, we have developed and applied a methodology for Built Environment modelling for incorporation into a range of re/insurance applications, including operational models for different international regions and different perils and covering residential, commercial and industry exposures. Illustrated examples are presented, including exposure modelling suitable for aggregated reinsurance analysis for the UK and bespoke high resolution modelling for industrial sites in Germany. A range of attributes are included following detailed claims analysis and engineering research with property type, age and condition identified as important differentiators of damage from flood, wind and freeze events.

The Development in modeling Tibetan Plateau Land/Climate Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Yongkang; Liu, Ye; li, qian; Maheswor Shrestha, Maheswor; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Cox, Peter; Sun, shufen; Koike, Toshio

2015-04-01

Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in influencing the continental and planetary scale climate, including East Asian and South Asian monsoon, circulation and precipitation over West Pacific and Indian Oceans. The numerical study has identified TP as the area with strongest land/atmosphere interactions over the midlatitude land. The land degradation there has also affected the monsoon precipitation in TP along the monsoon pathway. The water cycle there affects water sources for major Asian river systems, which include the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze Rivers. Despite the importance of TP land process in the climate system, the TP land surface processes are poorly modeled due to lack of data available for model validation. To better understand, simulate, and project the role of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes, better parameterization of the Tibetan Land surface processes have been developed and evaluated. The recently available field measurement there and satellite observation have greatly helped this development. This paper presents these new developments and preliminary results using the newly developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, frozen soil model, and glacier model. In recent CMIP5 simulation, the CMIP5 models with dynamic vegetation model show poor performance in simulating the TP vegetation and climate. To better simulate the TP vegetation condition and its interaction with climate, we have developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID), based on water, carbon, and energy balance. The simulated vegetation variables are updates, driven by carbon assimilation, allocation, and accumulation, as well as competition between plant functional types. The model has been validated with the station data, including those measured over the TP. The offline SSiB4/TRIFFID is integrated using the observed precipitation and reanalysis-based meteorological forcing from 1948 to 2008 with 1 degree horizontal resolution. The simulated vegetation conditions and surface hydrology are compared well with observational data with some bias, and shows strong decadal and interannual variabilities with a linear trend associated with the global warming. The TP region is covered by both discontinuous and sporadic permafrost with irregular snow layers above. A frozen soil model is developed to take the coupling effect of mass and heat transport into consideration and includes a detailed description of mass balances of volumetric liquid water, ice, as well as vapor content. It also considers contributions' of heat conduction to the energy balance. The model has been extensively tested using a number of TP station data, which included soil temperature and soil water measurements. The results suggest that it is important to include the frozen sol process to adequately simulate the surface energy balance during the freezing and thawing periods and surface temperature variability, including its diurnal variation. Issues in simulating permafrost process will also be addressed. To better understand the glacier variations under climate change scenarios, an integrated modeling system with an energy budget-based multilayer scheme for clean glaciers, a single-layer scheme for debris-covered glaciers and multilayer scheme for seasonal snow over glacier, soil and forest are developed within a distributed biosphere hydrological modeling framework (WEB-DHM-S model). Discharge simulations using this model show good agreement with observations for Hunza River Basin (13,733 km2) in the Karakoram region of Pakistan for three hydrologic years (2002-2004). Flow composition analysis reveals that the runoff regime is strongly controlled by the snow and glacier melt runoff (50% snowmelt and 33% glacier melt) and suggests that both topography and glacier hypsometry play key roles in glacier mass balance. This study provides a basis for potential application of such an integrated model to the entire Hindu-Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region.

A Third-Order Item Response Theory Model for Modeling the Effects of Domains and Subdomains in Large-Scale Educational Assessment Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rijmen, Frank; Jeon, Minjeong; von Davier, Matthias; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2014-01-01

Second-order item response theory models have been used for assessments consisting of several domains, such as content areas. We extend the second-order model to a third-order model for assessments that include subdomains nested in domains. Using a graphical model framework, it is shown how the model does not suffer from the curse of…

Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging for detecting pathological patterns in lupus nephritis patients: a preliminary study using a decision tree model.

PubMed

Shi, Huilan; Jia, Junya; Li, Dong; Wei, Li; Shang, Wenya; Zheng, Zhenfeng

2018-02-09

Precise renal histopathological diagnosis will guide therapy strategy in patients with lupus nephritis. Blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been applicable noninvasive technique in renal disease. This current study was performed to explore whether BOLD MRI could contribute to diagnose renal pathological pattern. Adult patients with lupus nephritis renal pathological diagnosis were recruited for this study. Renal biopsy tissues were assessed based on the lupus nephritis ISN/RPS 2003 classification. The Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD-MRI) was used to obtain functional magnetic resonance parameter, R2* values. Several functions of R2* values were calculated and used to construct algorithmic models for renal pathological patterns. In addition, the algorithmic models were compared as to their diagnostic capability. Both Histopathology and BOLD MRI were used to examine a total of twelve patients. Renal pathological patterns included five classes III (including 3 as class III + V) and seven classes IV (including 4 as class IV + V). Three algorithmic models, including decision tree, line discriminant, and logistic regression, were constructed to distinguish the renal pathological pattern of class III and class IV. The sensitivity of the decision tree model was better than that of the line discriminant model (71.87% vs 59.48%, P < 0.001) and inferior to that of the Logistic regression model (71.87% vs 78.71%, P < 0.001). The specificity of decision tree model was equivalent to that of the line discriminant model (63.87% vs 63.73%, P = 0.939) and higher than that of the logistic regression model (63.87% vs 38.0%, P < 0.001). The Area under the ROC curve (AUROCC) of the decision tree model was greater than that of the line discriminant model (0.765 vs 0.629, P < 0.001) and logistic regression model (0.765 vs 0.662, P < 0.001). BOLD MRI is a useful non-invasive imaging technique for the evaluation of lupus nephritis. Decision tree models constructed using functions of R2* values may facilitate the prediction of renal pathological patterns.

Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

2015-02-01

We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

MODBASE, a database of annotated comparative protein structure models

PubMed Central

Pieper, Ursula; Eswar, Narayanan; Stuart, Ashley C.; Ilyin, Valentin A.; Sali, Andrej

2002-01-01

MODBASE (http://guitar.rockefeller.edu/modbase) is a relational database of annotated comparative protein structure models for all available protein sequences matched to at least one known protein structure. The models are calculated by MODPIPE, an automated modeling pipeline that relies on PSI-BLAST, IMPALA and MODELLER. MODBASE uses the MySQL relational database management system for flexible and efficient querying, and the MODVIEW Netscape plugin for viewing and manipulating multiple sequences and structures. It is updated regularly to reflect the growth of the protein sequence and structure databases, as well as improvements in the software for calculating the models. For ease of access, MODBASE is organized into different datasets. The largest dataset contains models for domains in 304 517 out of 539 171 unique protein sequences in the complete TrEMBL database (23 March 2001); only models based on significant alignments (PSI-BLAST E-value < 10–4) and models assessed to have the correct fold are included. Other datasets include models for target selection and structure-based annotation by the New York Structural Genomics Research Consortium, models for prediction of genes in the Drosophila melanogaster genome, models for structure determination of several ribosomal particles and models calculated by the MODWEB comparative modeling web server. PMID:11752309

Scientific Studies of the High-Latitude Ionosphere with the Ionosphere Dynamics and ElectroDynamics - Data Assimilation (IDED-DA) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-23

conduct simulations with a high-latitude data assimilation model. The specific objectives are to study magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) coupling processes...based on three physics-based models, including a magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) electrodynamics model, an ionosphere model, and a magnetic...inversion code. The ionosphere model is a high-resolution version of the Ionosphere Forecast Model ( IFM ), which is a 3-D, multi-ion model of the ionosphere

Proceedings of the Workshop on Government Oil Spill Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, J. M. (Compiler)

1980-01-01

Oil spill model users and modelers were brought together for the purpose of fostering joint communication and increasing understanding of mutual problems. The workshop concentrated on defining user needs, presentations on ongoing modeling programs, and discussions of supporting research for these modeling efforts. Specific user recommendations include the development of an oil spill model user library which identifies and describes available models. The development of models for the long-term fate and effect of spilled oil was examined.

Interactive Design and the Mythical "Intuitive User Interface."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bielenberg, Daniel R.

1993-01-01

Discusses the design of graphical user interfaces. Highlights include conceptual models, including user needs, content, and what multimedia can do; and tools for building the users' mental models, including metaphor, natural mappings, prompts, feedback, and user testing. (LRW)

On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1984-01-01

Several two- to six-parameter regional water balance models are examined by using 50-year records of monthly streamflow at 10 sites in New Jersey. These models include variants of the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the Palmer model, and the more recent Thomas abcd model. Prediction errors are relatively similar among the models. However, simulated values of state variables such as soil moisture storage differ substantially among the models, and fitted parameter values for different models sometimes indicated an entirely different type of basin response to precipitation. Some problems in parameter identification are noted, including difficulties in identifying an appropriate time lag factor for the Thornthwaite-Mather-type model for basins with little groundwater storage, very high correlations between upper and lower storages in the Palmer-type model, and large sensitivity of parameter a of the abcd model to bias in estimates of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Modifications to the threshold concept of the Thornthwaite-Mather model were statistically valid for the six stations in northern New Jersey. The abcd model resulted in a simulated seasonal cycle of groundwater levels similar to fluctuations observed in nearby wells but with greater persistence. These results suggest that extreme caution should be used in attaching physical significance to model parameters and in using the state variables of the models in indices of drought and basin productivity.

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

Improving the accessibility and re-use of environmental models through provision of model metadata - a scoping study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew; Harpham, Quillon; Royse, Katherine; Singh, Anubha

2014-05-01

There has been an increasing interest both from academic and commercial organisations over recent years in developing hydrologic and other environmental models in response to some of the major challenges facing the environment, for example environmental change and its effects and ensuring water resource security. This has resulted in a significant investment in modelling by many organisations both in terms of financial resources and intellectual capital. To capitalise on the effort on producing models, then it is necessary for the models to be both discoverable and appropriately described. If this is not undertaken then the effort in producing the models will be wasted. However, whilst there are some recognised metadata standards relating to datasets these may not completely address the needs of modellers regarding input data for example. Also there appears to be a lack of metadata schemes configured to encourage the discovery and re-use of the models themselves. The lack of an established standard for model metadata is considered to be a factor inhibiting the more widespread use of environmental models particularly the use of linked model compositions which fuse together hydrologic models with models from other environmental disciplines. This poster presents the results of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded scoping study to understand the requirements of modellers and other end users for metadata about data and models. A user consultation exercise using an on-line questionnaire has been undertaken to capture the views of a wide spectrum of stakeholders on how they are currently managing metadata for modelling. This has provided a strong confirmation of our original supposition that there is a lack of systems and facilities to capture metadata about models. A number of specific gaps in current provision for data and model metadata were also identified, including a need for a standard means to record detailed information about the modelling environment and the model code used, to assist the selection of models for linked compositions. Existing best practice, including the use of current metadata standards (e.g. ISO 19110, ISO 19115 and ISO 19119) and the metadata components of WaterML were also evaluated. In addition to commonly used metadata attributes (e.g. spatial reference information) there was significant interest in recording a variety of additional metadata attributes. These included more detailed information about temporal data, and also providing estimates of data accuracy and uncertainty within metadata. This poster describes the key results of this study, including a number of gaps in the provision of metadata for modelling, and outlines how these might be addressed. Overall the scoping study has highlighted significant interest in addressing this issue within the environmental modelling community. There is therefore an impetus for on-going research, and we are seeking to take this forward through collaboration with other interested organisations. Progress towards an internationally recognised model metadata standard is suggested.

Communications network design and costing model users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logan, K. P.; Somes, S. S.; Clark, C. A.

1983-01-01

The information and procedures needed to exercise the communications network design and costing model for performing network analysis are presented. Specific procedures are included for executing the model on the NASA Lewis Research Center IBM 3033 computer. The concepts, functions, and data bases relating to the model are described. Model parameters and their format specifications for running the model are detailed.

Nearshore Current Model Workshop Summary.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

dissipation , and wave-current interaction. b. Incorporation into models of wave-breaking. c. Parameterization of turbulence in models. d. Incorporation...into models of surf zone energy dissipation . e. Methods to specify waves and currents on the boundaries of the grid. f. Incorporation into models of...also recommended. Improvements should include nonlinear and irregular wave effects and improved models of wave-breaking and wave energy dissipation in

Tutorial in medical decision modeling incorporating waiting lines and queues using discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Theurl, Engelbert; Siebert, Uwe; Pfeiffer, Karl-Peter

2010-01-01

In most decision-analytic models in health care, it is assumed that there is treatment without delay and availability of all required resources. Therefore, waiting times caused by limited resources and their impact on treatment effects and costs often remain unconsidered. Queuing theory enables mathematical analysis and the derivation of several performance measures of queuing systems. Nevertheless, an analytical approach with closed formulas is not always possible. Therefore, simulation techniques are used to evaluate systems that include queuing or waiting, for example, discrete event simulation. To include queuing in decision-analytic models requires a basic knowledge of queuing theory and of the underlying interrelationships. This tutorial introduces queuing theory. Analysts and decision-makers get an understanding of queue characteristics, modeling features, and its strength. Conceptual issues are covered, but the emphasis is on practical issues like modeling the arrival of patients. The treatment of coronary artery disease with percutaneous coronary intervention including stent placement serves as an illustrative queuing example. Discrete event simulation is applied to explicitly model resource capacities, to incorporate waiting lines and queues in the decision-analytic modeling example.

Evaluation of Biogenic and Fire Emissions in a Global Chemistry Model with NOMADSS, DC3 and SEAC4RS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmons, L. K.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Park, M.; Kaser, L.; Apel, E. C.; Guenther, A. B.

2014-12-01

Numerous measurements of compounds produced by biogenic and fire emissions were made during several recent field campaigns in the southeast United States, providing a unique data set for emissions and chemical model evaluation. The NCAR Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-chem) is coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM), which includes the biogenic emissions model MEGAN-v2.1, allowing for online calculation of emissions from vegetation for 150 compounds. Simulations of CAM-chem for summers 2012 and 2013 are evaluated with the aircraft and ground-based observations from DC3, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS. Comparison of directly emitted biogenic species, such as isoprene, terpenes, methanol and acetone, are used to evaluate the MEGAN emissions. Evaluation of oxidation products, including methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), methacrolein, formaldehyde, and other oxygenated VOCs are used to test the model chemistry mechanism. In addition, several biomass burning inventories are used in the model, including FINN, QFED, and FLAMBE, and are compared for their impact on atmospheric composition and ozone production, and evaluated with the aircraft observations.

An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Franklin D.

2005-01-01

This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

Transient Catalytic Combustor Model With Detailed Gas and Surface Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Struk, Peter M.; Dietrich, Daniel L.; Mellish, Benjamin P.; Miller, Fletcher J.; Tien, James S.

2005-01-01

In this work, we numerically investigate the transient combustion of a premixed gas mixture in a narrow, perfectly-insulated, catalytic channel which can represent an interior channel of a catalytic monolith. The model assumes a quasi-steady gas-phase and a transient, thermally thin solid phase. The gas phase is one-dimensional, but it does account for heat and mass transfer in a direction perpendicular to the flow via appropriate heat and mass transfer coefficients. The model neglects axial conduction in both the gas and in the solid. The model includes both detailed gas-phase reactions and catalytic surface reactions. The reactants modeled so far include lean mixtures of dry CO and CO/H2 mixtures, with pure oxygen as the oxidizer. The results include transient computations of light-off and system response to inlet condition variations. In some cases, the model predicts two different steady-state solutions depending on whether the channel is initially hot or cold. Additionally, the model suggests that the catalytic ignition of CO/O2 mixtures is extremely sensitive to small variations of inlet equivalence ratios and parts per million levels of H2.

Development of an engineering model atmosphere for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.

1988-01-01

An engineering model atmosphere for Mars is being developed with many of the same features and capabilities for the highly successful Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) program for Earth's atmosphere. As an initial approach, the model is being built around the Martian atmosphere model computer subroutine (ATMOS) of Culp and Stewart (1984). In a longer-term program of research, additional refinements and modifications will be included. ATMOS includes parameterizations to stimulate the effects of solar activity, seasonal variation, diurnal variation magnitude, dust storm effects, and effects due to the orbital position of Mars. One of the current shortcomings of ATMOS is the neglect of surface variation effects. The longer-term period of research and model building is to address some of these problem areas and provide further improvements in the model (including improved representation of near-surface variations, improved latitude-longitude gradient representation, effects of the large annual variation in surface pressure because of differential condensation/sublimation of the CO2 atmosphere in the polar caps, and effects of Martian atmospheric wave perturbations on the magnitude of the expected density perturbation.

Volterra-series-based nonlinear system modeling and its engineering applications: A state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, C. M.; Peng, Z. K.; Zhang, W. M.; Meng, G.

2017-03-01

Nonlinear problems have drawn great interest and extensive attention from engineers, physicists and mathematicians and many other scientists because most real systems are inherently nonlinear in nature. To model and analyze nonlinear systems, many mathematical theories and methods have been developed, including Volterra series. In this paper, the basic definition of the Volterra series is recapitulated, together with some frequency domain concepts which are derived from the Volterra series, including the general frequency response function (GFRF), the nonlinear output frequency response function (NOFRF), output frequency response function (OFRF) and associated frequency response function (AFRF). The relationship between the Volterra series and other nonlinear system models and nonlinear problem solving methods are discussed, including the Taylor series, Wiener series, NARMAX model, Hammerstein model, Wiener model, Wiener-Hammerstein model, harmonic balance method, perturbation method and Adomian decomposition. The challenging problems and their state of arts in the series convergence study and the kernel identification study are comprehensively introduced. In addition, a detailed review is then given on the applications of Volterra series in mechanical engineering, aeroelasticity problem, control engineering, electronic and electrical engineering.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

Rodent Models of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

PubMed Central

Imajo, Kento; Yoneda, Masato; Kessoku, Takaomi; Ogawa, Yuji; Maeda, Shin; Sumida, Yoshio; Hyogo, Hideyuki; Eguchi, Yuichiro; Wada, Koichiro; Nakajima, Atsushi

2013-01-01

Research in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has been limited by the availability of suitable models for this disease. A number of rodent models have been described in which the relevant liver pathology develops in an appropriate metabolic context. These models are promising tools for researchers investigating one of the key issues of NASH: not so much why steatosis occurs, but what causes the transition from simple steatosis to the inflammatory, progressive fibrosing condition of steatohepatitis. The different rodent models can be classified into two large groups. The first includes models in which the disease is acquired after dietary or pharmacological manipulation, and the second, genetically modified models in which liver disease develops spontaneously. To date, no single rodent model has encompassed the full spectrum of human disease progression, but individual models can imitate particular characteristics of human disease. Therefore, it is important that researchers choose the appropriate rodent models. The purpose of the present review is to discuss the metabolic abnormalities present in the currently available rodent models of NAFLD, summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of the established models and the key findings that have furthered our understanding of the disease’s pathogenesis. PMID:24192824

A Parameter Subset Selection Algorithm for Mixed-Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Kathleen L.; Smith, Ralph C.

2016-01-01

Mixed-effects models are commonly used to statistically model phenomena that include attributes associated with a population or general underlying mechanism as well as effects specific to individuals or components of the general mechanism. This can include individual effects associated with data from multiple experiments. However, the parameterizations used to incorporate the population and individual effects are often unidentifiable in the sense that parameters are not uniquely specified by the data. As a result, the current literature focuses on model selection, by which insensitive parameters are fixed or removed from the model. Model selection methods that employ information criteria are applicablemore » to both linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models, but such techniques are limited in that they are computationally prohibitive for large problems due to the number of possible models that must be tested. To limit the scope of possible models for model selection via information criteria, we introduce a parameter subset selection (PSS) algorithm for mixed-effects models, which orders the parameters by their significance. In conclusion, we provide examples to verify the effectiveness of the PSS algorithm and to test the performance of mixed-effects model selection that makes use of parameter subset selection.« less

Toolkit of Available EPA Green Infrastructure Modeling ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This webinar will present a toolkit consisting of five EPA green infrastructure models and tools, along with communication material. This toolkit can be used as a teaching and quick reference resource for use by planners and developers when making green infrastructure implementation decisions. It can also be used for low impact development design competitions. Models and tools included: Green Infrastructure Wizard (GIWiz), Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST), Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA) Model, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and the National Stormwater Calculator (SWC). This webinar will present a toolkit consisting of five EPA green infrastructure models and tools, along with communication material. This toolkit can be used as a teaching and quick reference resource for use by planners and developers when making green infrastructure implementation decisions. It can also be used for low impact development design competitions. Models and tools included: Green Infrastructure Wizard (GIWiz), Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST), Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA) Model, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and the National Stormwater Calculator (SWC).

Specification for a surface-search radar-detection-range model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattan, Claude P.

1990-09-01

A model that predicts surface-search radar detection range versus a variety of combatants has been developed at the Naval Ocean Systems Center. This model uses a simplified ship radar cross section (RCS) model and the U.S. Navy Oceanographic and Atmospheric Mission Library Standard Electromagnetic Propagation Model. It provides the user with a method of assessing the effects of the environment of the performance of a surface-search radar system. The software implementation of the model is written in ANSI FORTRAN 77, with MIL-STD-1753 extensions. The program provides the user with a table of expected detection ranges when the model is supplied with the proper environmental radar system inputs. The target model includes the variation in RCS as a function of aspect angle and the distribution of reflected radar energy as a function of height above the waterline. The modeled propagation effects include refraction caused by a multisegmented refractivity profile, sea-surface roughness caused by local winds, evaporation ducting, and surface-based ducts caused by atmospheric layering.

Recalibration of the Shear Stress Transport Model to Improve Calculation of Shock Separated Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.; Yoder, Dennis A.

2013-01-01

The Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST) k . turbulence model is one of the most widely used two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models for aerodynamic analyses. The model extends Menter s baseline (BSL) model to include a limiter that prevents the calculated turbulent shear stress from exceeding a prescribed fraction of the turbulent kinetic energy via a proportionality constant, a1, set to 0.31. Compared to other turbulence models, the SST model yields superior predictions of mild adverse pressure gradient flows including those with small separations. In shock - boundary layer interaction regions, the SST model produces separations that are too large while the BSL model is on the other extreme, predicting separations that are too small. In this paper, changing a1 to a value near 0.355 is shown to significantly improve predictions of shock separated flows. Several cases are examined computationally and experimental data is also considered to justify raising the value of a1 used for shock separated flows.

Performance modeling for large database systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaar, Stephen; Hum, Frank; Romano, Joe

1997-02-01

One of the unique approaches Science Applications International Corporation took to meet performance requirements was to start the modeling effort during the proposal phase of the Interstate Identification Index/Federal Bureau of Investigations (III/FBI) project. The III/FBI Performance Model uses analytical modeling techniques to represent the III/FBI system. Inputs to the model include workloads for each transaction type, record size for each record type, number of records for each file, hardware envelope characteristics, engineering margins and estimates for software instructions, memory, and I/O for each transaction type. The model uses queuing theory to calculate the average transaction queue length. The model calculates a response time and the resources needed for each transaction type. Outputs of the model include the total resources needed for the system, a hardware configuration, and projected inherent and operational availability. The III/FBI Performance Model is used to evaluate what-if scenarios and allows a rapid response to engineering change proposals and technical enhancements.

The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Level 3 Package: Flux Balance Constraints.

PubMed

Olivier, Brett G; Bergmann, Frank T

2015-09-04

Constraint-based modeling is a well established modelling methodology used to analyze and study biological networks on both a medium and genome scale. Due to their large size, genome scale models are typically analysed using constraint-based optimization techniques. One widely used method is Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) which, for example, requires a modelling description to include: the definition of a stoichiometric matrix, an objective function and bounds on the values that fluxes can obtain at steady state. The Flux Balance Constraints (FBC) Package extends SBML Level 3 and provides a standardized format for the encoding, exchange and annotation of constraint-based models. It includes support for modelling concepts such as objective functions, flux bounds and model component annotation that facilitates reaction balancing. The FBC package establishes a base level for the unambiguous exchange of genome-scale, constraint-based models, that can be built upon by the community to meet future needs (e. g. by extending it to cover dynamic FBC models).

The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Level 3 Package: Flux Balance Constraints.

PubMed

Olivier, Brett G; Bergmann, Frank T

2015-06-01

Constraint-based modeling is a well established modelling methodology used to analyze and study biological networks on both a medium and genome scale. Due to their large size, genome scale models are typically analysed using constraint-based optimization techniques. One widely used method is Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) which, for example, requires a modelling description to include: the definition of a stoichiometric matrix, an objective function and bounds on the values that fluxes can obtain at steady state. The Flux Balance Constraints (FBC) Package extends SBML Level 3 and provides a standardized format for the encoding, exchange and annotation of constraint-based models. It includes support for modelling concepts such as objective functions, flux bounds and model component annotation that facilitates reaction balancing. The FBC package establishes a base level for the unambiguous exchange of genome-scale, constraint-based models, that can be built upon by the community to meet future needs (e. g. by extending it to cover dynamic FBC models).

Integrating the Advanced Human Eye Model (AHEM) and optical instrument models to model complete visual optical systems inclusive of the typical or atypical eye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, William J., III

2012-06-01

PURPOSE: To present a commercially available optical modeling software tool to assist the development of optical instrumentation and systems that utilize and/or integrate with the human eye. METHODS: A commercially available flexible eye modeling system is presented, the Advanced Human Eye Model (AHEM). AHEM is a module that the engineer can use to perform rapid development and test scenarios on systems that integrate with the eye. Methods include merging modeled systems initially developed outside of AHEM and performing a series of wizard-type operations that relieve the user from requiring an optometric or ophthalmic background to produce a complete eye inclusive system. Scenarios consist of retinal imaging of targets and sources through integrated systems. Uses include, but are not limited to, optimization, telescopes, microscopes, spectacles, contact and intraocular lenses, ocular aberrations, cataract simulation and scattering, and twin eye model (binocular) systems. RESULTS: Metrics, graphical data, and exportable CAD geometry are generated from the various modeling scenarios.

Modeling Tool Advances Rotorcraft Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Continuum Dynamics Inc. (CDI), founded in 1979, specializes in advanced engineering services, including fluid dynamic modeling and analysis for aeronautics research. The company has completed a number of SBIR research projects with NASA, including early rotorcraft work done through Langley Research Center, but more recently, out of Ames Research Center. NASA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants on helicopter wake modeling resulted in the Comprehensive Hierarchical Aeromechanics Rotorcraft Model (CHARM), a tool for studying helicopter and tiltrotor unsteady free wake modeling, including distributed and integrated loads, and performance prediction. Application of the software code in a blade redesign program for Carson Helicopters, of Perkasie, Pennsylvania, increased the payload and cruise speeds of its S-61 helicopter. Follow-on development resulted in a $24 million revenue increase for Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, of Stratford, Connecticut, as part of the company's rotor design efforts. Now under continuous development for more than 25 years, CHARM models the complete aerodynamics and dynamics of rotorcraft in general flight conditions. CHARM has been used to model a broad spectrum of rotorcraft attributes, including performance, blade loading, blade-vortex interaction noise, air flow fields, and hub loads. The highly accurate software is currently in use by all major rotorcraft manufacturers, NASA, the U.S. Army, and the U.S. Navy.

Managing the life cycle of electronic clinical documents.

PubMed

Payne, Thomas H; Graham, Gail

2006-01-01

To develop a model of the life cycle of clinical documents from inception to use in a person's medical record, including workflow requirements from clinical practice, local policy, and regulation. We propose a model for the life cycle of clinical documents as a framework for research on documentation within electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Our proposed model includes three axes: the stages of the document, the roles of those involved with the document, and the actions those involved may take on the document at each stage. The model includes the rules to describe who (in what role) can perform what actions on the document, and at what stages they can perform them. Rules are derived from needs of clinicians, and requirements of hospital bylaws and regulators. Our model encompasses current practices for paper medical records and workflow in some EMR systems. Commercial EMR systems include methods for implementing document workflow rules. Workflow rules that are part of this model mirror functionality in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) EMR system where the Authorization/ Subscription Utility permits document life cycle rules to be written in English-like fashion. Creating a model of the life cycle of clinical documents serves as a framework for discussion of document workflow, how rules governing workflow can be implemented in EMR systems, and future research of electronic documentation.

Current advancements and challenges in soil-root interactions modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnepf, Andrea; Huber, Katrin; Abesha, Betiglu; Meunier, Felicien; Leitner, Daniel; Roose, Tiina; Javaux, Mathieu; Vanderborght, Jan; Vereecken, Harry

2015-04-01

Roots change their surrounding soil chemically, physically and biologically. This includes changes in soil moisture and solute concentration, the exudation of organic substances into the rhizosphere, increased growth of soil microorganisms, or changes in soil structure. The fate of water and solutes in the root zone is highly determined by these root-soil interactions. Mathematical models of soil-root systems in combination with non-invasive techniques able to characterize root systems are a promising tool to understand and predict the behaviour of water and solutes in the root zone. With respect to different fields of applications, predictive mathematical models can contribute to the solution of optimal control problems in plant recourse efficiency. This may result in significant gains in productivity, efficiency and environmental sustainability in various land use activities. Major challenges include the coupling of model parameters of the relevant processes with the surrounding environment such as temperature, nutrient concentration or soil water content. A further challenge is the mathematical description of the different spatial and temporal scales involved. This includes in particular the branched structures formed by root systems or the external mycelium of mycorrhizal fungi. Here, reducing complexity as well as bridging between spatial scales is required. Furthermore, the combination of experimental and mathematical techniques may advance the field enormously. Here, the use of root system, soil and rhizosphere models is presented through a number of modelling case studies, including image based modelling of phosphate uptake by a root with hairs, model-based optimization of root architecture for phosphate uptake from soil, upscaling of rhizosphere models, modelling root growth in structured soil, and the effect of root hydraulic architecture on plant water uptake efficiency and drought resistance.

Cloud-Based Tools to Support High-Resolution Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N.; Nelson, J.; Swain, N.; Christensen, S.

2013-12-01

The majority of watershed models developed to support decision-making by water management agencies are simple, lumped-parameter models. Maturity in research codes and advances in the computational power from multi-core processors on desktop machines, commercial cloud-computing resources, and supercomputers with thousands of cores have created new opportunities for employing more accurate, high-resolution distributed models for routine use in decision support. The barriers for using such models on a more routine basis include massive amounts of spatial data that must be processed for each new scenario and lack of efficient visualization tools. In this presentation we will review a current NSF-funded project called CI-WATER that is intended to overcome many of these roadblocks associated with high-resolution modeling. We are developing a suite of tools that will make it possible to deploy customized web-based apps for running custom scenarios for high-resolution models with minimal effort. These tools are based on a software stack that includes 52 North, MapServer, PostGIS, HT Condor, CKAN, and Python. This open source stack provides a simple scripting environment for quickly configuring new custom applications for running high-resolution models as geoprocessing workflows. The HT Condor component facilitates simple access to local distributed computers or commercial cloud resources when necessary for stochastic simulations. The CKAN framework provides a powerful suite of tools for hosting such workflows in a web-based environment that includes visualization tools and storage of model simulations in a database to archival, querying, and sharing of model results. Prototype applications including land use change, snow melt, and burned area analysis will be presented. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1135482

ALGE3D: A Three-Dimensional Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maze, G. M.

2017-12-01

Of the top 10 most populated US cities from a 2015 US Census Bureau estimate, 7 of the cities are situated near the ocean, a bay, or on one of the Great Lakes. A contamination of the water ways in the United States could be devastating to the economy (through tourism and industries such as fishing), public health (from direct contact, or contaminated drinking water), and in some cases even infrastructure (water treatment plants). Current national response models employed by emergency response agencies have well developed models to simulate the effects of hazardous contaminants in riverine systems that are primarily driven by one-dimensional flows; however in more complex systems, such as tidal estuaries, bays, or lakes, a more complex model is needed. While many models exist, none are capable of quick deployment in emergency situations that could contain a variety of release situations including a mixture of both particulate and dissolved chemicals in a complex flow area. ALGE3D, developed at the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), is a three-dimensional hydrodynamic code which solves the momentum, mass, and energy conservation equations to predict the movement and dissipation of thermal or dissolved chemical plumes discharged into cooling lakes, rivers, and estuaries. ALGE3D is capable of modeling very complex flows, including areas with tidal flows which include wetting and drying of land. Recent upgrades have increased the capabilities including the transport of particulate tracers, allowing for more complete modeling of the transport of pollutants. In addition the model is capable of coupling with a one-dimension riverine transport model or a two-dimension atmospheric deposition model in the event that a contamination event occurs upstream or upwind of the water body.

Current Advancements and Challenges in Soil-Root Interactions Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnepf, A.; Huber, K.; Abesha, B.; Meunier, F.; Leitner, D.; Roose, T.; Javaux, M.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H.

2014-12-01

Roots change their surrounding soil chemically, physically and biologically. This includes changes in soil moisture and solute concentration, the exudation of organic substances into the rhizosphere, increased growth of soil microorganisms, or changes in soil structure. The fate of water and solutes in the root zone is highly determined by these root-soil interactions. Mathematical models of soil-root systems in combination with non-invasive techniques able to characterize root systems are a promising tool to understand and predict the behaviour of water and solutes in the root zone. With respect to different fields of applications, predictive mathematical models can contribute to the solution of optimal control problems in plant recourse efficiency. This may result in significant gains in productivity, efficiency and environmental sustainability in various land use activities. Major challenges include the coupling of model parameters of the relevant processes with the surrounding environment such as temperature, nutrient concentration or soil water content. A further challenge is the mathematical description of the different spatial and temporal scales involved. This includes in particular the branched structures formed by root systems or the external mycelium of mycorrhizal fungi. Here, reducing complexity as well as bridging between spatial scales is required. Furthermore, the combination of experimental and mathematical techniques may advance the field enormously. Here, the use of root system, soil and rhizosphere models is presented through a number of modelling case studies, including image based modelling of phosphate uptake by a root with hairs, model-based optimization of root architecture for phosphate uptake from soil, upscaling of rhizosphere models, modelling root growth in structured soil, and the effect of root hydraulic architecture on plant water uptake efficiency and drought resistance.

Progress & Frontiers in PV Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deline, Chris; DiOrio, Nick; Jordan, Dirk

2016-09-12

PowerPoint slides for a presentation given at Solar Power International 2016. Presentation includes System Advisor Model (SAM) introduction and battery modeling, bifacial PV modules and modeling, shade modeling and module level power electronics (MLPE), degradation rates, and PVWatts updates and validation.

Methodology for Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Computational Toxicology Models

EPA Science Inventory

The task of quantifying the uncertainty in both parameter estimates and model predictions has become more important with the increased use of dynamic computational toxicology models by the EPA. Dynamic toxicological models include physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) mode...

Glass Transition Temperature- and Specific Volume- Composition Models for Tellurite Glasses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riley, Brian J.; Vienna, John D.

This report provides models for predicting composition-properties for tellurite glasses, namely specific gravity and glass transition temperature. Included are the partial specific coefficients for each model, the component validity ranges, and model fit parameters.

Elastic Network Models For Biomolecular Dynamics: Theory and Application to Membrane Proteins and Viruses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lezon, Timothy R.; Shrivastava, Indira H.; Yang, Zheng; Bahar, Ivet

The following sections are included: * Introduction * Theory and Assumptions * Statistical mechanical foundations * Anisotropic network models * Gaussian network model * Rigid block models * Treatment of perturbations * Langevin dynamics * Applications * Membrane proteins * Viruses * Conclusion * References

Applying model abstraction techniques to optimize monitoring networks for detecting subsurface contaminant transport

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving strategies for monitoring subsurface contaminant transport includes performance comparison of competing models, developed independently or obtained via model abstraction. Model comparison and parameter discrimination involve specific performance indicators selected to better understand s...

Freight model improvement project for ECWRPC.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

In early 2009 WisDOT, HNTB and ECWRPC completed the first phase of the Northeast Region Travel Demand Model. : While the model includes a truck trip generation based on the quick response freight manual, the model lacks enough : truck classification ...

Testing the World with Simulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Nancy

1983-01-01

Discusses steps involved in model building and simulation: understanding a problem, building a model, and simulation. Includes a mathematical model (focusing on a problem dealing with influenza) written in the DYNAMO computer language, developed specifically for writing simulation models. (Author/JN)

Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

2012-04-01

Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the repeatability of such catastrophe losses in the country. The validation process also included collaboration between Aon Benfield and its client in order to consider the insurance market penetration in Algeria estimated approximately at 5%. Thus, we believe that the applied approach led towards the production of an earthquake model for Algeria that is scientifically sound and reliable from one side and market and client oriented on the other side.

Incorporation of Electrical Systems Models Into an Existing Thermodynamic Cycle Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeh, Josh

2003-01-01

Integration of entire system includes: Fuel cells, motors, propulsors, thermal/power management, compressors, etc. Use of existing, pre-developed NPSS capabilities includes: 1) Optimization tools; 2) Gas turbine models for hybrid systems; 3) Increased interplay between subsystems; 4) Off-design modeling capabilities; 5) Altitude effects; and 6) Existing transient modeling architecture. Other factors inclde: 1) Easier transfer between users and groups of users; 2) General aerospace industry acceptance and familiarity; and 3) Flexible analysis tool that can also be used for ground power applications.

Analysis of Brown camera distortion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowakowski, Artur; Skarbek, Władysław

2013-10-01

Contemporary image acquisition devices introduce optical distortion into image. It results in pixel displacement and therefore needs to be compensated for many computer vision applications. The distortion is usually modeled by the Brown distortion model, which parameters can be included in camera calibration task. In this paper we describe original model, its dependencies and analyze orthogonality with regard to radius for its decentering distortion component. We also report experiments with camera calibration algorithm included in OpenCV library, especially a stability of distortion parameters estimation is evaluated.

Geographic information system/watershed model interface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, Gary T.

1989-01-01

Geographic information systems allow for the interactive analysis of spatial data related to water-resources investigations. A conceptual design for an interface between a geographic information system and a watershed model includes functions for the estimation of model parameter values. Design criteria include ease of use, minimal equipment requirements, a generic data-base management system, and use of a macro language. An application is demonstrated for a 90.1-square-kilometer subbasin of the Patuxent River near Unity, Maryland, that performs automated derivation of watershed parameters for hydrologic modeling.

Anticipating Installation Natural Resource Climate Change Concerns: The Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-15

period of development (1 to 2 decades) include: 1. CM2.1 (GFDL model — NOAA Princeton) 2. E-H and E-R ( NASA GISS) 3. HadGEM1 (Hadley UKMO) 4. CGCM3...sixth GCM, the Australian CSIRO model, to increase the sample. Thus the adopted GCMs include: 1. GFDL model (NOAA Princeton) 6. GISS Model e ( NASA ...Sciences La- boratory ( USDA 2012) created data that would be useful to the related threshold project. This US Forest Service date were similar to those of

Clarifying the Use of Aggregated Exposures in Multilevel Models: Self-Included vs. Self-Excluded Measures

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Etsuji; Yamamoto, Eiji; Takao, Soshi; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S. V.

2012-01-01

Background Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level) and individual (lower level) exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure). More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure). In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models. Methods Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models—self-included model and self-excluded model—and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure. Results Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions. Conclusions When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model—self-included or self-excluded—is suitable for a given situation, particularly when group sizes are relatively small. PMID:23251609

Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.

1981-05-01

An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.

Model Course of Study for Agricultural Programs in Iowa. Preparing for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Robert A.; And Others

Each section contained in this packet is necessary for designing an effective program of agriculture education. The curriculum guide that is developed from this model should include the same sections. The model includes: (1) community description; (2) school description; (3) goals and objectives of education in agriculture; (4) evaluation policy;…

Satellite services system analysis study. Volume 2: Satellite and services user model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Satellite services needs are analyzed. Topics include methodology: a satellite user model; representative servicing scenarios; potential service needs; manned, remote, and automated involvement; and inactive satellites/debris. Satellite and services user model development is considered. Groundrules and assumptions, servicing, events, and sensitivity analysis are included. Selection of references satellites is also discussed.

[Municipalities as a Model for New Careers and Redirection of Vocational-Technical Education Programs.] Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for Local Self Government, Berkeley, CA.

To meet the manpower needs of local governments, the model developed for this project redirects national and technical education toward new careers programs. Designed by task forces of professional personnel, the model utilizes existing local government resources, including funds for new career activities. Accomplishments of the project include:…

Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model: B (Set Includes, A- User's Guide for Version 3 w/disks, B-Engineering Documentation for Version 3

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer program is a quasi-two-dimensional hydrologic model of water movement across, into, through and out of landfills. The model accepts weather, soil and design data. Landfill systems including various combinations o...

Studies and analyses of the space shuttle main engine: High-pressure oxidizer turbopump failure information propagation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glover, R. C.; Rudy, S. W.; Tischer, A. E.

1987-01-01

The high-pressure oxidizer turbopump (HPOTP) failure information propagation model (FIPM) is presented. The text includes a brief discussion of the FIPM methodology and the various elements which comprise a model. Specific details of the HPOTP FIPM are described. Listings of all the HPOTP data records are included as appendices.

InSTREAM: the individual-based stream trout research and environmental assessment model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Stephen K. Jackson; Roland H. Lamberson

2009-01-01

This report documents Version 4.2 of InSTREAM, including its formulation, software, and application to research and management problems. InSTREAM is a simulation model designed to understand how stream and river salmonid populations respond to habitat alteration, including altered flow, temperature, and turbidity regimes and changes in channel morphology. The model...

A Comparison of the CHILD and Landlab Computational Landscape Evolution Models and Examples of Best Practices in Numerical Modeling of Surface Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparini, N. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Tucker, G. E.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Nudurupati, S. S.; Hutton, E. W. H.

2014-12-01

Computational models are important tools that can be used to quantitatively understand the evolution of real landscapes. Commonalities exist among most landscape evolution models, although they are also idiosyncratic, in that they are coded in different languages, require different input values, and are designed to tackle a unique set of questions. These differences can make applying a landscape evolution model challenging, especially for novice programmers. In this study, we compare and contrast two landscape evolution models that are designed to tackle similar questions, but the actual model designs are quite different. The first model, CHILD, is over a decade-old and is relatively well-tested, well-developed and well-used. It is coded in C++, operates on an irregular grid and was designed more with function rather than user-experience in mind. In contrast, the second model, Landlab, is relatively new and was designed to be accessible to a wide range of scientists, including those who have not previously used or developed a numerical model. Landlab is coded in Python, a relatively easy language for the non-proficient programmer, and has the ability to model landscapes described on both regular and irregular grids. We present landscape simulations from both modeling platforms. Our goal is to illustrate best practices for implementing a new process module in a landscape evolution model, and therefore the simulations are applicable regardless of the modeling platform. We contrast differences and highlight similarities between the use of the two models, including setting-up the model and input file for different evolutionary scenarios, computational time, and model output. Whenever possible, we compare model output with analytical solutions and illustrate the effects, or lack thereof, of a uniform vs. non-uniform grid. Our simulations focus on implementing a single process, including detachment-limited or transport-limited fluvial bedrock incision and linear or non-linear diffusion of material on hillslopes. We also illustrate the steps necessary to couple processes together, for example, detachment-limited fluvial bedrock incision with linear diffusion on hillslopes. Trade-offs exist between the two modeling platforms, and these are primarily in speed and ease-of-use.

Updates to watershed modeling in the Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington-a supplement to Scientific Investigation Report 2009-5081

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark

2012-01-01

A previous collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation resulted in a watershed model for four watersheds that discharge into Potholes Reservoir, Washington. Since the model was constructed, two new meteorological sites have been established that provide more reliable real-time information. The Bureau of Reclamation was interested in incorporating this new information into the existing watershed model developed in 2009, and adding measured snowpack information to update simulated results and to improve forecasts of runoff. This report includes descriptions of procedures to aid a user in making model runs, including a description of the Object User Interface for the watershed model with details on specific keystrokes to generate model runs for the contributing basins. A new real-time, data-gathering computer program automates the creation of the model input files and includes the new meteorological sites. The 2009 watershed model was updated with the new sites and validated by comparing simulated results to measured data. As in the previous study, the updated model (2012 model) does a poor job of simulating individual storms, but a reasonably good job of simulating seasonal runoff volumes. At three streamflow-gaging stations, the January 1 to June 30 retrospective forecasts of runoff volume for years 2010 and 2011 were within 40 percent of the measured runoff volume for five of the six comparisons, ranging from -39.4 to 60.3 percent difference. A procedure for collecting measured snowpack data and using the data in the watershed model for forecast model runs, based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, is described, with an example that uses 2004 snow-survey data.

Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

PubMed

Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

2013-11-01

The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (<7). Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are more appropriate to accurately reflect the trial data.

A systematic review of models used in cost-effectiveness analyses of preventing osteoporotic fractures.

PubMed

Si, L; Winzenberg, T M; Palmer, A J

2014-01-01

This review was aimed at the evolution of health economic models used in evaluations of clinical approaches aimed at preventing osteoporotic fractures. Models have improved, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes, as well as advancements in epidemiological data. Model-based health economic evaluation studies are increasingly used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporotic fracture preventions and treatments. The objective of this study was to carry out a systematic review of the evolution of health economic models used in the evaluation of osteoporotic fracture preventions. Electronic searches within MEDLINE and EMBASE were carried out using a predefined search strategy. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select relevant studies. References listed of included studies were searched to identify any potential study that was not captured in our electronic search. Data on country, interventions, type of fracture prevention, evaluation perspective, type of model, time horizon, fracture sites, expressed costs, types of costs included, and effectiveness measurement were extracted. Seventy-four models were described in 104 publications, of which 69% were European. Earlier models focused mainly on hip, vertebral, and wrist fracture, but later models included multiple fracture sites (humerus, pelvis, tibia, and other fractures). Modeling techniques have evolved from simple decision trees, through deterministic Markov processes to individual patient simulation models accounting for uncertainty in multiple parameters. Treatment continuance has been increasingly taken into account in the models in the last decade. Models have evolved in their complexity and emphasis, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes. This evolution may be driven in part by the desire to capture all the important differentiating characteristics of medications under scrutiny, as well as the advancement in epidemiological data relevant to osteoporosis fractures.

Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas. 1: Particulate air pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.

1992-11-01

1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and excess human mortality. The regression model proposed by Oezkaynak and Thurston, which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for population change, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all non-external causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. The data on particulatesmore » were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included din the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model, and between TS and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened. Scatter plots and quintile analyses suggested a TSP threshold for COPD mortality at around 65 ug/m{sup 3} (annual average). SO{sub 4}{sup {minus}2}, Mn, PM{sup 15}, and PM{sub 2.5} were not significantly associated with mortality using the new models.« less